Tunisia’s summer of discontent

Democracy, Conflict, & Governance Foreign Politics & Elections

民主、冲突与治理 外国政治与选举

Five years after his power grab , Tunisian President Kais Saied is facing his most serious challenge yet.

夺取权力五年后，突尼斯总统凯斯·赛义德面临着迄今为止最严峻的挑战。

Water and electricity shortages during a record-hot summer (in some regions nearing 120 degrees Fahrenheit) are producing growing discontent with his rule.

在创纪录的炎热夏季（某些地区接近 120 华氏度）期间出现的水电短缺导致人们对他的统治越来越不满。

July 25, the anniversary of Saied’s takeover, witnessed some of the largest protests against him thus far.

7 月 25 日是赛义德接管周年纪念日，见证了迄今为止针对他最大规模的一些抗议活动。

Continued water and power cuts again sparked protests on August 4 and 5 in several areas across the country, and another protest in Tunis is scheduled for August 20.

8月4日至5日，持续的断水断电再次引发全国多个地区的抗议活动，突尼斯定于8月20日再次举行抗议活动。

For years, Saied had been able to weather economic challenges by scapegoating the political parties, businessmen, migrants, and foreign powers, among others.

多年来，赛义德一直通过将政党、商人、移民和外国势力等作为替罪羊来应对经济挑战。

But today, these populist narratives are no longer working—partly because it has now been five years since his takeover, and at that point, people expect him to deliver.

但如今，这些民粹主义叙事不再有效——部分原因是他上任已经五年了，而此时，人们期望他能够兑现承诺。

But what’s more, the water and electricity shortages are objectively worse than during the democratic era.

但更重要的是，水电短缺客观上比民主时代更严重。

And they are visceral: Tunisians can literally feel that things are not working.

而且他们是发自内心的：突尼斯人确实可以感觉到事情不顺利。

Power cuts, including to hospitals, have even led hundreds to die.

包括医院在内的停电甚至导致数百人死亡。

Worse yet, Saied has been largely absent, simply vowing to target the conspirators behind the shortages—the same tired, populist speech that few people are buying anymore.

更糟糕的是，赛义德基本上缺席，只是发誓要针对短缺背后的阴谋者——同样令人厌倦的民粹主义言论，很少有人再相信了。

Adding to the mix has been perceived infringements on Tunisia’s sovereignty by neighboring Algeria, which has been one of Saied’s strongest backers and signed a controversial defense cooperation agreement last year.

更糟糕的是，邻国阿尔及利亚被认为侵犯了突尼斯的主权，阿尔及利亚一直是赛义德最强有力的支持者之一，并于去年签署了一项有争议的防务合作协议。

In response to the protests, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune threatened to intervene in Tunisia to take out the supposed “terrorists” (protesters), prompting nationalist pushback even from some of Saied’s early supporters.

作为对抗议活动的回应，阿尔及利亚总统阿卜杜勒马吉德·特布恩威胁要对突尼斯进行干预，以消灭所谓的“恐怖分子”（抗议者），这甚至引发了赛义德一些早期支持者的民族主义抵制。

Perhaps most surprising, Saied is facing criticism from within the regime, as insiders seem to see the writing on the wall.

也许最令人惊讶的是，赛义德正面临政权内部的批评，因为内部人士似乎看到了不祥之兆。

The parliament, which had widely been viewed as a rubber stamp, now has members openly and pointedly criticizing the government and even Saied directly.

曾被广泛视为橡皮图章的议会现在有成员公开、尖锐地批评政府，甚至直接批评赛义德。

Member of parliament (MP) Hamdi Ben Salah has asked for Saied to appear before parliament to be questioned; MP Ammar Al-Aidoudi has said Saied’s second term (in which he won a supposed 91% of the vote) is illegitimate; and MP Ali Zaghdoud has begun preparing a motion of censure against the government.

国会议员哈姆迪·本·萨拉赫要求赛义德出庭接受质询；议员阿马尔·艾杜迪 (Ammar Al-Aidoudi) 表示，赛义德的第二个任期（他赢得了 91% 的选票）是非法的；议员阿里·扎格杜德 (Ali Zaghdoud) 已开始准备针对政府的谴责动议。

It is as if some MPs are trying to jump ship in anticipation of the regime falling.

就好像一些国会议员因预期政权垮台而试图跳槽。

Amid rumors of Saied’s health problems, even his brother and wife are allegedly jostling to determine who might replace him.

在有关赛义德健康问题的传言中，据称甚至他的兄弟和妻子也在争先恐后地决定谁可以接替他。

Saied, for his part, has deployed the army and national guard to provide water, and later secured electricity from Algeria, but these are not long-term solutions to the shortages.

赛义德则部署了军队和国民警卫队提供水源，后来又从阿尔及利亚获得了电力，但这并不是解决短缺问题的长期解决方案。

He may try to blame the prime minister and reshuffle the government—but having already shuffled through four prime ministers since his takeover, it is not clear that such a move will ease public anger.

他可能会试图指责总理并改组政府，但自他上任以来已经更换了四位总理，目前尚不清楚此举能否缓解公众的愤怒。

Experts suggest that the shortages are due to years of government underinvestment in the state-owned water and electricity companies (SONEDE and STEG, respectively), which are too deeply in debt to undertake infrastructural improvements.

专家认为，造成短缺的原因是政府多年来对国有水务公司和电力公司（分别是SONEDE和STEG）投资不足，这些公司负债累累，无法进行基础设施改善。

This is not the first summer of power and water cuts, leaving Tunisians wondering why the government did not do more to anticipate the heat and plan in advance.

这并不是第一次夏季停电停水，这让突尼斯人想知道为什么政府没有采取更多措施来预测炎热天气并提前做好计划。

But admittedly, having snubbed the International Monetary Fund and many foreign allies , the government has few funds left to invest.

但不可否认的是，在冷落了国际货币基金组织和许多外国盟友之后，政府已所剩无几的资金可供投资。

As former Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi (who Saied ousted in his takeover) recently noted , “Saied is totally opposed to international donors, but he doesn’t give any alternative.

正如前总理希赫姆·梅奇奇（赛义德在接管过程中被赶下台）最近指出的那样，“赛义德完全反对国际捐助，但他没有给出任何替代方案。

He has populist ideas, but they have no impact on the ground.”

他有民粹主义思想，但对当地没有影响。”

Rached Ghannouchi, the 85-year-old head of Ennahda and former parliamentary speaker who today languishes in prison, his health deteriorating , was already optimistic back in 2022 that Tunisians would soon realize populism is just empty promises.

85 岁的复兴运动领袖、前议会议长拉希德·加努奇 (Rached Ghannouchi) 早在 2022 年就乐观地认为，突尼斯人很快就会认识到民粹主义只是空头支票。

“Populism is like a drug,” he told me in an interview.

“民粹主义就像毒品，”他在接受采访时告诉我。

“It sedates you; it takes you high, but then you wake up to the ugly truth.

“它让你镇静，让你兴奋，但随后你就会发现丑陋的事实。

People are now seeing the ugly truth.

人们现在看到了丑陋的事实。

They are seeing the inflation of prices, they are seeing the absence of essential commodities, they are seeing unemployment and the infringement of human rights, and how bloggers are being detained, etc.”

他们看到价格上涨，他们看到基本商品的缺乏，他们看到失业和侵犯人权，以及博客作者如何被拘留等等。”

Ghazi Chaouachi, the former head of the Democratic Current party who Saied has likewise thrown in prison, told me the same.

萨义德同样被投入监狱的民主潮流党前党魁加齐·查瓦奇 (Ghazi Chaouachi) 也告诉了我同样的事情。

“Kais Saied uses populist speech similar to Donald Trump,” Chaouachi said in 2022.

“凯斯·赛义德使用与唐纳德·特朗普类似的民粹主义言论，”查瓦奇在 2022 年表示。

“And Tunisians will learn with time that all his promises are void, and will lead to the destruction of Tunisia and not its success …

“随着时间的推移，突尼斯人将了解到他的所有承诺都是无效的，并将导致突尼斯的毁灭，而不是其成功......

I believe that after what Kais Saied did, the people will be traumatized.

我相信凯斯·赛义德的所作所为之后，人们将会受到创伤。

After this, populism will decrease, and it will lose popularity.”

此后，民粹主义就会减弱，就会失去民心。”

Five years later, Tunisians may finally be waking up to the ugly truth.

五年后，突尼斯人可能终于醒悟到丑陋的真相。

Saied’s populist allegations about conspiracies, corrupt elites, and foreign plots ring increasingly hollow when the faucets run dry and the air conditioning goes out.

当水龙头干了、空调坏了时，赛义德关于阴谋、腐败精英和外国阴谋的民粹主义指控听起来越来越空洞。

Whether today’s crisis becomes a democratic opening remains uncertain .

今天的危机是否会成为民主的开放仍然不确定。

But if it helps to finally delegitimize populism in Tunisia, that will ease the country’s return to democracy when that transition eventually occurs.

但如果它有助于最终使突尼斯的民粹主义失去合法性，那么当过渡最终发生时，这将有助于该国回归民主。