Big city growth is slowing, reversing a post-pandemic resurgence

The nation’s largest cities have contended with a roller coaster of population shifts since the beginning of this decade.

自本世纪初以来，美国最大的城市一直在应对人口过山车般的变化。

Many were severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic in the early part of the decade, with sharp declines or smaller gains in population growth, followed by a post-pandemic resurgence through 2023-24.

许多国家在本世纪初受到了 COVID-19 大流行的严重影响，人口增长急剧下降或增幅较小，随后到 2023-24 年大流行后又出现复苏。

Now, recent Census Bureau estimates show a 2024-25 reversion to slowing growth in big cities.

现在，人口普查局最近的估计显示，2024-25 年大城市增长将恢复放缓。

And rather than the pandemic-related causes of previous shifts, this big city growth slowdown can be attributed to the national decline in immigration and some shifts in domestic migration across the U.S. and its regions.

这种大城市增长放缓可归因于全国移民数量的下降以及美国及其地区国内移民的一些变化，而不是先前变化的流行病相关原因。

Census Bureau population estimates for 2024-25 show a sharp decline in U.S. population growth over the previous year.

人口普查局对 2024-25 年的人口估计显示，美国人口增长较上一年急剧下降。

This was due in large part to a downturn in international migration, which led to pervasive growth declines in most states and metropolitan areas .

这在很大程度上是由于国际移民减少，导致大多数州和大都市区普遍增长下滑。

The most recent Census Bureau release focuses on population change in cities of different sizes 1 .

人口普查局最新发布的内容重点关注不同规模城市的人口变化 1 。

These data show that as a group, the nation’s 92 largest cities (those with populations over 250,000) saw the biggest declines in population growth of cities across all size categories.

这些数据显示，作为一个整体，全国 92 个最大的城市（人口超过 25 万的城市）在所有规模类别的城市中人口增长下降幅度最大。

As Figure 1 shows, these 92 big cities saw their aggregate population growth decline from 1.13% in 2023-24 to just 0.31% in 2024-25.

如图1所示，这92个大城市的总人口增长率从2023-24年的1.13%下降到2024-25年的0.31%。

This was a bigger decline than that for the nation as a whole during this period (from 0.96% to 0.52%) or for any of the smaller-sized city categories.

这一降幅高于同期全国整体降幅（从 0.96% 降至 0.52%）或任何较小规模城市类别的降幅。

The nation’s seven largest cities—each with populations over 1.5 million—saw especially sharp growth slowdowns.

该国七个最大的城市——每个城市的人口都超过 150 万——增长速度尤其急剧放缓。

The two biggest cities (New York and Los Angeles) flipped from population growth in 2023-24 to decline in 2024-2025.

两个最大的城市（纽约和洛杉矶）从 2023-24 年的人口增长转向 2024-2025 年的人口下降。

Growth slowed (but still stayed positive) in Chicago and Philadelphia.

芝加哥和费城的增长放缓（但仍保持正值）。

And two rapidly growing Texas cities—Houston and San Antonio—experienced noticeably smaller population gains.

德克萨斯州两个快速发展的城市——休斯顿和圣安东尼奥——的人口增幅明显较小。

Similarly, 86 of the nation’s 92 largest cities did worse demographically in 2024-25 than in the previous year, with 56 showing slower growth, 24 flipping from zero or positive growth to decline, and six registering greater population declines.

同样，2024-25 年全国 92 个最大城市中的 86 个城市的人口状况比上一年更差，其中 56 个城市增长放缓，24 个城市从零增长或正增长转为下降，6 个城市人口下降幅度更大。

Map 1 displays these cities according to growth categories ( see also downloadable Table A ).

地图 1 根据增长类别显示了这些城市（另请参阅可下载的表 A）。

Big cities that flipped from growth to decline are located across every U.S. region, including Dallas in the South; Denver in the Mountain West; Boston in the Northeast; and Cincinnati, St. Paul, Minn., and Milwaukee in the Midwest.

从增长转向衰退的大城市遍布美国每个地区，包括南部的达拉斯；西部山区的丹佛；波士顿在东北部；以及中西部的辛辛那提、圣保罗和密尔沃基。

This was also the case among the many cities that experienced slower 2024-25 growth, including Houston, Orlando, Fla., and Nashville, Tenn., in the South; San Jose, Calif., Las Vegas, and Phoenix in the West; Chicago, Indianapolis, and Minneapolis in the Midwest; and Philadelphia and Newark, N.J., in the Northeast.

2024-25 年增长放缓的许多城市也是如此，包括南部的休斯顿、佛罗里达州奥兰多和田纳西州纳什维尔；西部的加利福尼亚州圣何塞、拉斯维加斯和菲尼克斯；中西部的芝加哥、印第安纳波利斯和明尼阿波利斯；以及东北部的费城和新泽西州纽瓦克。

Therefore, while the national growth slowdown in 2024-25 was fairly pervasive across the country, it hit nation’s biggest cities especially hard.

因此，虽然 2024-25 年全国经济增长放缓在全国范围内相当普遍，但对全国最大城市的打击尤其严重。

Of course, there remained a sharp disparity in growth levels across these cities.

当然，这些城市之间的增长水平仍然存在巨大差异。

Seven big cities registered 2024-25 growth rates exceeding 1.5%: Port St. Lucie, Fla.; Charlotte, N.C.; Fort Worth, Texas; Atlanta; Durham, N.C.; Henderson, Nev.; and Seattle.

七个大城市 2024-25 年增长率超过 1.5%：佛罗里达州圣露西港；北卡罗来纳州夏洛特；德克萨斯州沃斯堡；亚特兰大;北卡罗来纳州达勒姆；内华达州亨德森；和西雅图。

Meanwhile, St. Petersburg, Fla., Memphis, Tenn., and St. Louis registered declines exceeding 0.5% ( see downloadable Table B ).

与此同时，佛罗里达州圣彼得堡、田纳西州孟菲斯和圣路易斯的跌幅超过 0.5%（参见可下载的表 B）。

In terms of numeric gains, Charlotte and Fort Worth ranked first and second, respectively, on aggregate growth, both gaining about 20,000 people in 2024-25.

就人口增长而言，夏洛特和沃斯堡在总增长方面分别排名第一和第二，在 2024-25 年均增加了约 20,000 人。

New York lost the most residents: more than 12,000.

纽约失去的居民最多：超过 12,000 人。

Last year’s decline in big city growth should be contextualized by the sharp population shifts—both down and up—that these cities experienced in recent years.

去年大城市增长的下降应该与这些城市近年来经历的人口急剧变化（无论是下降还是上升）有关。

Most noteworthy were the population declines many of these cities saw during the peak pandemic year of 2020-21—a consequence of employment, transportation, and other infrastructure shutdowns; the rise of hybrid work, which led to movement to the suburbs or other parts of the country; and a dip in natural increase due to higher numbers of deaths and lower numbers of births.

最值得注意的是，许多城市在 2020-21 年疫情高峰年出现了人口下降，这是就业、交通和其他基础设施关闭的结果；混合工作的兴起，导致人们迁移到郊区或该国其他地区；由于死亡人数增加和出生人数减少，自然增长有所下降。

It was at this time that some feared an “urban doom loop” was in the making—a self-perpetuating cycle of population loss and urban disinvestment.

正是在这个时候，一些人担心“城市末日循环”正在形成——人口流失和城市投资减少的自我延续循环。

Yet in the years that followed, many of the cities that suffered the biggest population declines during the pandemic began to attract more people, with gains rising through 2023-24 due to lower domestic out-migration and high levels of immigration.

然而，在接下来的几年里，许多在大流行期间人口下降最严重的城市开始吸引更多人口，由于国内迁出人口减少和移民数量增加，人口增长在 2023-24 年期间不断增加。

This was the backdrop for the growth slowdown in 2024-25.

这是 2024-25 年增长放缓的背景。