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Tracking trade amid uncertain and changing tariff policies

在不确定和不断变化的关税政策中跟踪贸易
2026-10-13  ·  Brookings Institution|William A. Galston  ·  原文

Editor’s note: An earlier version of this tracker was developed by Wendy Edelberg and Riki Matsumoto.

编者注:该跟踪器的早期版本是由 Wendy Edelberg 和 Riki Matsumoto 开发的。

Monitoring international trade flows is crucial to understanding how countries and businesses react to an ever-changing trade policy landscape.

监测国际贸易流对于了解国家和企业如何应对不断变化的贸易政策格局至关重要。

After decades of stability, 2018 marked the start of a shift in U.S. trade policy.

经过数十年的稳定之后,2018 年标志着美国贸易政策转变的开始。

Since then, but particularly since January 2025, there has been a sharp increase in tariffs, a tax on imports to the U.S. In response, some trading partners have imposed countermeasures, i.e., raising tariffs on U.S. exports.

此后,特别是2025年1月以来,关税急剧增加,对美国进口商品征税。作为回应,一些贸易伙伴采取了反制措施,即提高对美国出口产品的关税。

To help users navigate and understand changes in trade policy and flows, this data interactive allows users to monitor changes in U.S. trade flows, tariffs applied, and traded goods prices on an ongoing basis.

为了帮助用户导航和了解贸易政策和流动的变化,这种数据交互允许用户持续监控美国贸易流动、适用的关税和贸易商品价格的变化。

The tool presents data dashboards on goods and services trade, an estimate of tariffs charged (calculated duties), and imports and exports price inflation since 2015.

该工具提供有关商品和服务贸易的数据仪表板、征收关税的估计(计算关税)以及自 2015 年以来的进出口价格通胀。

Users have the option to overlay key U.S. trade policy actions that increased tariffs to allow them to monitor changes in the data in the context of changing tariff policies.

用户可以选择叠加增加关税的关键美国贸易政策行动,以便他们能够在关税政策变化的背景下监控数据的变化。

This guide explains how to use the trade tracker’s dashboards and provides example applications to help users understand how to explore different aspects of trade and trade policy changes.

本指南解释了如何使用贸易跟踪器的仪表板,并提供示例应用程序来帮助用户了解如何探索贸易和贸易政策变化的不同方面。

One can additionally hover over the information icon or click on links for additional information.

另外,还可以将鼠标悬停在信息图标上或单击链接以获取其他信息。

To switch between dashboards, use the drop-down arrow on the right-hand side of the interactive.

要在仪表板之间切换,请使用交互右侧的下拉箭头。

Some dashboards include multiple tabs for alternative data classification options or sub-indicators.

某些仪表板包含多个选项卡,用于替代数据分类选项或子指标。

The dashboards are organized as follows:

仪表板的组织方式如下:

Dashboard 1.

仪表板 1.

Trade flows : The Trade flows dashboard tracks the value of goods and/or services exports from the U.S. and imports by the U.S. in billions of nominal U.S. dollars.

贸易流量:贸易流量仪表板跟踪美国出口的商品和/或服务的价值以及美国进口的商品和/或服务的价值(以数十亿名义美元计算)。

Within the Trade flows dashboard, the “Goods by country and industry” tab displays monthly goods trade by selected industries and trade partners (based on North American Industry Classification System [NAICS]).

在贸易流量仪表板中,“按国家和行业划分的商品”选项卡显示选定行业和贸易伙伴的每月商品贸易(基于北美行业分类系统 [NAICS])。

The “Goods by end-use” tab displays monthly goods trade by principal end-use (e.g., automotives or industrial supplies) in either real (chained-2017) or nominal dollars.

“按最终用途划分的货物”选项卡显示按主要最终用途(例如汽车或工业用品)划分的每月货物贸易,以实际(2017 年环比)或名义美元表示。

The “Goods and/or services by country” tab displays quarterly goods and/or services trade by country in nominal dollars.

“按国家/地区划分的商品和/或服务”选项卡显示按国家/地区按名义美元计算的季度商品和/或服务贸易。

(Note: Country-specific disaggregation is not available for principal end-use data, and industry-specific disaggregation is not available for goods and services data.)

(注:特定国家分类不适用于主要最终用途数据,特定行业分类不适用于商品和服务数据。)

Dashboard 2.

仪表板 2.

Tariffs : The Tariffs dashboard tracks calculated duties on merchandise imports and the associated calculated average tariff rates.

关税:关税仪表板跟踪计算出的商品进口关税以及相关的计算出的平均关税率。

Within the Tariffs dashboard, the “Calculated duties” tab tracks the dutiable value of imports multiplied by the applicable duty rate (see FAQ for more details on calculated duty estimates).

在关税仪表板中,“计算的关税”选项卡跟踪进口的应税价值乘以适用的关税税率(有关计算的关税估算的更多详细信息,请参阅常见问题解答)。

The “Estimated average tariff rate” tab displays the calculated duties as a share of total imports for a given industry-country pair.

“估计平均关税率”选项卡显示计算出的关税占给定行业/国家对进口总额的比例。

When comparing over time, users can select a view, industries, a limited set of trade partners, and the time period.

在随时间进行比较时,用户可以选择视图、行业、有限的贸易伙伴集和时间段。

Users can also index calculated duties data to a chosen month.

用户还可以将计算出的职责数据索引到所选月份。

When comparing by year, users can select either industry or country break down and the years of comparison.

按年份比较时,用户可以选择行业或国家细分以及比较年份。

Dashboard 3.

仪表板 3.

Prices : The Prices dashboard tracks the year-over-year percent change in the import and export price indexes (MXP) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

价格:价格仪表板跟踪美国劳工统计局 (BLS) 的进出口价格指数 (MXP) 的同比百分比变化。

Since the price index is presented as a year-over-year percent change, users choose between “over time” or “compare by year” views.

由于价格指数以同比百分比变化的形式呈现,用户可以在“随时间变化”或“按年比较”视图之间进行选择。

The MXP present (non-seasonally adjusted) changes in the prices of most nonmilitary goods traded between the U.S. and the rest of the world.

MXP 显示美国与世界其他地区之间交易的大多数非军事商品价格的(非季节性调整)变化。

Works of art and selected special miscellaneous imports and exports are excluded .

艺术品和特定的特殊杂项进出口不包括在内。

Import prices are based on U.S. dollar prices paid by the U.S. importer.

进口价格基于美国进口商支付的美元价格。

The import and export transaction prices are generally at the foreign port and the U.S. port, respectively, and exclude import duties .

进出口交易价格一般分别为国外港口和美国港口,且不含进口关税。

Only a more limited set of industries and trade partners are available for this dataset.

此数据集仅提供一组更为有限的行业和贸易伙伴。

Click the arrow on the lefthand panel to view (or hide) options for customizing the data visualization shown on the righthand side.

单击左侧面板上的箭头可查看(或隐藏)用于自定义右侧显示的数据可视化的选项。

Tip for screenshots: We recommend expanding the figure to full screen by closing the selection panel.

屏幕截图提示:我们建议通过关闭选择面板将图形扩展到全屏。

Below is a comprehensive list of all possible customizations.

以下是所有可能的自定义的完整列表。

If an option does not appear in the left-hand panel, it is not available for the dashboard and tab that you have selected.

如果某个选项未出现在左侧面板中,则该选项不可用于您选择的仪表板和选项卡。

For the Trade flows dashboard, select imports, exports , or balance (exports minus imports).

对于贸易流量仪表板,选择进口、出口或余额(出口减去进口)。

For the Prices dashboard only imports and exports are available.

对于价格仪表板,仅导入和导出可用。

Select an industry as defined by the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), which groups establishments by similar economic activities for goods or services.

选择北美行业分类系统 (NAICS) 定义的行业,该系统根据类似的商品或服务经济活动对企业进行分组。

It employs a six-digit coding system: The first two digits indicate the sector, the third marks the sub-sector, the fourth the industry group, the fifth the NAICS industry, and the sixth the national industry.

它采用六位数字编码系统:前两位数字表示行业,第三位表示子行业,第四位表示行业组,第五位表示NAICS行业,第六位表示全国行业。

The tracker presents NAICS categories disaggregated at levels two and three.

该跟踪器显示了按二级和三级分类的 NAICS 类别。

Industry breakdowns are available for the “Goods by country and industry” tab of the Trade flows dashboard, the Tariffs dashboard, and the Prices dashboard.

贸易流量仪表板、关税仪表板和价格仪表板的“按国家和行业划分的商品”选项卡提供行业细分。

Note: The agriculture industry classification used here follows the Census definition of agriculture, not the USDA/WTO definition.

注意:此处使用的农业产业分类遵循农业普查定义,而不是美国农业部/世贸组织的定义。

Select among the available trading partners.

在可用的贸易伙伴中进行选择。

For the Trade flows and Tariffs dashboards, the top trading partners from each region are available.

对于贸易流和关税仪表板,可以使用每个地区的顶级贸易伙伴。

The selected trading partners represent over 95 percent of trade.

选定的贸易伙伴占贸易额的95%以上。

For the Prices dashboard, all countries with available data from BLS are available.

对于价格仪表板,可以使用 BLS 提供的所有可用数据的国家/地区。

Users can find more information about area groupings (such as ASEAN) here .

用户可以在此处找到有关区域分组(例如东盟)的更多信息。

In the Trade flows dashboard, the composition of trade tab allows users to select an end date in order to view the composition during a specific time period.

在贸易流量仪表板中,贸易构成选项卡允许用户选择结束日期,以便查看特定时间段内的构成。

The default is through the most recent data.

默认是通过最新的数据。

The “Goods and/or services by country” tab in the Trade flows dashboard allows users to select goods, services, and/or total trade (goods and services).

贸易流量仪表板中的“按国家/地区划分的商品和/或服务”选项卡允许用户选择商品、服务和/或总贸易(商品和服务)。

For compare by year and composition of trade views with multiple dimensions, users must select a break down dimension.

要按年份和多个维度的交易视图组成进行比较,用户必须选择细分维度。

Selecting “Industry” allows users to see multiple industries for a single selected country, and selecting “Country” allows users to see multiple countries for a single selected industry.

选择“行业”允许用户查看单个选定国家/地区的多个行业,选择“国家/地区”允许用户查看单个选定行业的多个国家/地区。

For the Goods and/or services by country tab in the Trade flows dashboard, selecting “Type” when comparing by year allows users to see trade disaggregated into goods, services, and total for a select country, while selecting “Country” allows for the selection of multiple trading partners for either goods, services, or total trade.

对于贸易流量仪表板中按国家/地区划分的商品和/或服务选项卡,按年份进行比较时选择“类型”允许用户查看选定国家/地区的按商品、服务和总额分类的贸易,而选择“国家/地区”则允许为商品、服务或总贸易选择多个贸易伙伴。

For most over time views, users can index the data series to a specific month.

对于大多数随时间变化的视图,用户可以将数据系列索引到特定月份。

This helps compare series on different scales or track changes relative to a chosen starting point.

这有助于比较不同尺度的系列或跟踪相对于所选起点的变化。

Dates which have a value of zero are excluded as index date options.

值为零的日期被排除在索引日期选项之外。

When viewing monthly data over time, users can choose to display markers indicating the month in which selected trade policy actions that raised tariffs went into effect.

在查看一段时间内的月度数据时,用户可以选择显示标记,指示提高关税的选定贸易政策行动生效的月份。

These markers are date indicators only.

这些标记只是日期指示器。

Once selected, they appear on all charts, regardless of whether the data shown in the figure are actually affected by the tariff actions selected.

一旦选择,它们就会出现在所有图表上,无论图中显示的数据是否实际上受到所选关税行动的影响。

In other words, the markers do not adjust based on the specific industries, products, or countries included in the data being displayed.

换句话说,标记不会根据所显示数据中包含的特定行业、产品或国家/地区进行调整。

The available policy actions are grouped by the legal authority under which the tariffs were imposed:

可用的政策行动按征收关税的法律机构分组:

The tracker organizes these actions by legal authority—each is represented by a different color—and the table below the figure lists the included tariff actions.

跟踪器按法律机构组织这些行动(每个行动都用不同的颜色表示),图下方的表格列出了所包含的关税行动。

Hover over the top of any marker to view details of the corresponding tariff action.

将鼠标悬停在任何标记的顶部即可查看相应关税行动的详细信息。

Note: The tracker shows the first month in which each selected tariff action took effect but is not a comprehensive list of all tariff updates, carve-outs, or retaliations.

注意:跟踪器显示每个选定关税行动生效的第一个月,但不是所有关税更新、例外或报复的完整列表。

To view the full set of actions associated with each event, download the accompanying table.

要查看与每个事件相关的全套操作,请下载随附的表格。

Tariff actions are updated through the most recent month of Census Bureau data.

关税行动通过人口普查局最近一个月的数据进行更新。

The chart below uses the tariff actions feature to show how trade flows in primary metal manufacturing responded to Section 232 tariff actions covering metal products.

下图使用关税行动功能来显示初级金属制造业的贸易流如何响应涉及金属产品的第 232 条关税行动。

Selecting the industry “Primary Metal Manufacturing” for all countries and selecting Section 232 tariff actions reveals a sharp increase in imports in January 2025 to $43.7 billion ahead of the implementation of 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, more than a four-and-a-half-fold increase from the prior January ($9.5 billion).

为所有国家选择“初级金属制造”行业并选择232条款关税行动显示,在对钢铁和铝实施232关税之前,2025年1月进口额急剧增加至437亿美元,比前一月(95亿美元)增长了四倍半以上。

A similar surge occurred before copper tariffs took effect in August of 2025.

在 2025 年 8 月铜关税生效之前,也出现了类似的飙升。

The chart below illustrates how the trends over time view and the indexing feature can be used to compare patterns of trade patterns across countries.

下图说明了如何使用随时间变化的趋势视图和索引功能来比较各国的贸易模式。

It shows 12-month moving sums of imports from China, Russia, the EU, and Ukraine, indexed to January 2020.

它显示了以 2020 年 1 月为指数的来自中国、俄罗斯、欧盟和乌克兰的 12 个月移动进口总额。

While imports value from the EU and China far exceeds that of Russia and Ukraine, indexing places them on a comparable scale, making the trends easier to evaluate.

虽然来自欧盟和中国的进口额远远超过俄罗斯和乌克兰,但指数化使它们处于可比规模,使趋势更容易评估。

Users can also explore the makeup of trade by industry, country, or principal end-use using the “composition of trade” view option.

用户还可以使用“贸易构成”视图选项按行业、国家或主要最终用途探索贸易构成。

The treemap below shows the distribution of total U.S. services exports value across partner countries for 2021–2025Q2.

下面的树状图显示了 2021 年至 2025 年第二季度美国服务出口总额在合作伙伴国家/地区的分布情况。

The chart below displays calculated duties, an estimate of actual duties charged.

下图显示了计算的关税,即实际收取的关税的估计值。

These values are generated by multiplying the applicable tariff rate by the customs value of imports.

这些值是通过将适用的关税税率乘以进口商品的完税价格得出的。

When the manufacturing industry and all countries are selected, the series highlights the estimated effect of tariff actions on duty collections.

当选择制造业和所有国家时,该系列突出了关税行动对税收征收的估计影响。

The pronounced jump in the data in 2025 reflects the implementation of IEEPA and Section 232 tariffs.

2025 年数据的显着跳跃反映了 IEEPA 和第 232 条关税的实施。

The chart below plots the estimated average tariff rate (ATR), calculated by dividing calculated duties by the customs value of imports.

下图描绘了估计的平均关税税率 (ATR),其计算方法是将计算出的关税除以进口完税价格。

As shown in the figure, Canada’s ATR rises sharply in 2018 when Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were imposed.

如图所示,2018年对钢铁和铝征收232条款关税后,加拿大的ATR大幅上升。

The ATR drops after Canada was exempted from these tariffs in May 2019 but spikes again in 2025, when tariffs on Canadian imports were raised under IEEPA, Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum were reimposed on Canada, and new Section 232 tariffs went into effect for copper and autos.

在加拿大于 2019 年 5 月免除这些关税后,ATR 下降,但在 2025 年再次飙升,当时根据 IEEPA 提高了加拿大进口关税,对加拿大重新征收钢铁和铝第 232 条关税,并对铜和汽车征收新的第 232 条关税。

Price indexes in dashboard 3 allow users to compare price volatility across countries and industries.

仪表板 3 中的价格指数允许用户比较不同国家和行业的价格波动性。

Notably, the percent change in the trade price index for Canada has been much more volatile than for other major partners (such as the EU and China).

值得注意的是,加拿大贸易价格指数的百分比变化比其他主要合作伙伴(例如欧盟和中国)的波动性更大。

Users can zoom in to view recent changes in import and export price inflation by industry and country.

用户可以放大查看近期按行业和国家划分的进出口价格通胀变化。

For example, selecting “Primary Metal Manufacturing” for Mexico, Canada, and the EU beginning in January 2023 highlights an uptick in import price inflation in early 2025.

例如,从 2023 年 1 月开始为墨西哥、加拿大和欧盟选择“初级金属制造”,突显 2025 年初进口价格通胀上升。

The data will be updated monthly.

该数据将每月更新一次。

Updates to dashboards 1 and 2 will follow the International Trade in Goods and Services (FT-900) release .

仪表板 1 和 2 的更新将遵循国际货物和服务贸易 (FT-900) 的发布。

Dashboard 3 will be updated when the BLS Export/Import Price Index is released .

Dashboard 3 将在 BLS 进出口价格指数发布时更新。

The tools make few adjustments to the federally collected data; we calculate year-over-year percent changes and the 12-month and 4-quarter rolling sums.

这些工具对联邦政府收集的数据几乎没有进行调整;我们计算同比百分比变化以及 12 个月和 4 个季度的滚动总和。

These data are downloadable and can be used for secondary analysis.

这些数据可下载并可用于二次分析。

The dashboard 1 “Goods by end-use” tab is seasonally adjusted and available in both real and nominal terms.

仪表板 1“按最终用途划分的商品”选项卡按季节进行调整,并提供实际值和名义值。

All other data are nominal and non-seasonally adjusted.

所有其他数据均为名义数据且未经季节性调整。

As per the U.S. Census Bureau explanation , “goods on a Census basis are adjusted by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis to goods on a BOP basis to bring the data in line with the concepts and definitions used to prepare the international and national accounts.

根据美国人口普查局的解释,“美国经济分析局将普查基础上的商品调整为国际收支平衡表基础上的商品,以使数据符合用于准备国际和国民账户的概念和定义。

Broadly, the adjustments include changes in ownership that occur without goods passing into or out of the customs territory of the United States.

从广义上讲,这些调整包括在货物不进出美国关税领土的情况下发生的所有权变更。

These adjustments are necessary to supplement coverage of the Census basis data, to eliminate duplication of transactions recorded elsewhere in the international accounts, and to value transactions according to a standard definition.”

这些调整对于补充人口普查基础数据的覆盖范围、消除国际账户其他地方记录的重复交易以及根据标准定义对交易进行估值是必要的。”

Calculated duties are the estimated import duties collected.

计算关税是征收的估计进口关税。

They are calculated by the Census Bureau by multiplying the dutiable value of imports—the Customs value of foreign merchandise imported into the United States that is subject to a duty—with the applicable duty rate(s) as defined by the Harmonized Tariff Schedule of the United States Annotated for Statistical Reporting Purposes (HTSUSA).

它们由人口普查局通过进口完税价格(进口到美国且需缴纳关税的外国商品的完税价格)乘以美国统计报告目的统一关税表 (HTSUSA) 定义的适用税率来计算。

The Census Bureau notes that the calculated duty may over- or understate the amount of duty paid.

人口普查局指出,计算出的关税可能高估或低估了已缴纳的关税金额。

As per the U.S. Census Bureau , the statistics are initially collected and compiled in terms of approximately 8,000 commodity classifications in Schedule B, Statistical Classification of Domestic and Foreign Commodities Exported from the United States for exports and the approximately 14,000 classifications in the HTSUSA for imports.

根据美国人口普查局的数据,统计数据最初是根据附表B《美国出口国内外商品统计分类》中的约8,000种商品分类(出口)和HTSUSA中的约14,000种进口商品分类进行收集和编制的。

The HTSUSA and Schedule B classifications are rearranged and summarized into the NAICS system.

HTSUSA 和 Schedule B 分类已重新排列并汇总到 NAICS 系统中。

Users can find a glossary of U.S. Census international trade related terms here .

用户可以在此处找到美国人口普查国际贸易相关术语的词汇表。

Census revises the prior three years of data annually in June .

人口普查每年六月都会修订前三年的数据。

Additionally, each month, the published FT900 tables have revised estimates for the prior month’s total export and import estimates, as well as exports to Canada.

此外,每个月发布的 FT900 表格都会对上个月的进出口总额以及对加拿大的出口进行修订。

USA Trade Online and the Census API do not include monthly revisions until the annual revisions are posted.

在发布年度修订之前,USA Trade Online 和人口普查 API 不包含每月修订。

This tracker displays data from the Census API which includes revisions through 2025 and represent the current official trade statistics for the United States.

该跟踪器显示来自人口普查 API 的数据,其中包括截至 2025 年的修订数据,代表美国当前的官方贸易统计数据。

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中文为机器翻译,仅供参考。