Revenge of the Forgotten Class — ProPublica

In March, I was driving along a road that led from Dayton, Ohio, into its formerly middle-class, now decidedly working-class southwestern suburbs, when I came upon an arresting sight.

三月，我开车沿着一条从俄亥俄州代顿通往这里以前是中产阶级、现在明显是工人阶级的西南郊区的道路行驶，这时我看到了一个引人注目的景象。

I was looking for a professional sign-maker who had turned his West Carrollton ranch house into a distribution point for Trump yard signs, in high demand just days prior to the Ohio Republican primary.

我正在寻找一位专业标牌制作者，他将他位于西卡罗尔顿的牧场房屋变成了特朗普庭院标牌的分发点，就在俄亥俄州共和党初选前几天，需求量很大。

Instead of piling the signs in the driveway, he had arrayed them in his yard along the road.

他没有将标牌堆放在车道上，而是将它们排列在路边自家院子里。

There they were, dozens and dozens of them, lined up in rows like the uniform gravestones in a military cemetery.

他们在那里，有几十个，排成一排，就像军人墓地里统一的墓碑一样。

The sign man wasn’t home, but he had left a married couple in charge of the distribution.

签名人不在家，但他让一对已婚夫妇负责分发。

I got talking to the woman, Contessa Hammel.

我和那位女士交谈过，Contessa Hammel。

She was 43 and worked at the convenience store at a local Speedway gas station after four years in the military.

她 43 岁，服兵役四年后，在当地 Speedway 加油站的便利店工作。

And this was the first time she was voting in 25 years of eligibility.

这是她 25 年来第一次参加投票。

I was startled to hear this — it’s rare to find voters entering the political process after decades of disconnection; in fact, I’d met a handyman in his 70s at a Trump rally on the other side of Dayton that same day who said he was voting for the first time, but I had dismissed it as a fluke.

听到这个消息我很惊讶——在几十年的脱节之后很少有选民进入政治进程；事实上，当天我在代顿另一边的特朗普集会上遇到了一位 70 多岁的勤杂工，他说他是第一次投票，但我认为这是侥幸。

I asked Hammel why she’d held back all those years.

我问哈梅尔为什么这些年来她一直犹豫不决。

“I didn’t want to make an unintelligent decision,” she said, in a tone that suggested she was well aware of what an admission that was.

“我不想做出一个不明智的决定，”她说，语气表明她很清楚这是一个多么愚蠢的决定。

But this year’s Republican nominee was different, she said.

但她说，今年的共和党提名人有所不同。

“He makes it simple for people like me,” she said.

“他让像我这样的人变得简单，”她说。

“He puts it clearly.”

“他说得很清楚了。”

Donald Trump’s stunning win Tuesday, defying all the prognosticators, suggested there were many more people like Hammel out there — people who were so disconnected from the political system that they were literally unaccounted for in the pollsters’ modeling, which relies on past voting behavior.

唐纳德·特朗普周二的惊人胜利打破了所有的预测，这表明还有更多像哈梅尔这样的人——这些人与政治体系如此脱节，以至于在民意调查机构的模型中实际上没有考虑到他们的情况，而民意调查的模型依赖于过去的投票行为。

But Hammel was far from the only person I met in my reporting this year who made me think that Trump had spurred something very unusual.

但哈梅尔并不是我今年在报道中遇到的唯一一个让我认为特朗普引发了一些非常不寻常的事情的人。

Some of them had never voted before; some had voted for Barack Obama.

他们中的一些人以前从未投票过；有些人投票给了巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)。

None were traditional Republican voters.

没有人是传统的共和党选民。

Some were in dire economic straits; others were just a notch up from that and looking down with resentment at the growing dependency around them.

有些人陷入了严重的经济困境；有些人则陷入了严重的经济困境。其他人只比这高出一个档次，他们对周围日益增长的依赖感到不满。

What they shared were three things.

他们分享的是三件事。

They lived in places that were in decline, and had been for some time.

他们生活在衰落的地方，而且这种衰落已经有一段时间了。

They lacked strong attachment to either party at a time when, even within a single metro area like Dayton , the parties had sorted themselves into ideological, geographically disparate camps that left many voters unmoored.

他们对任何一方都缺乏强烈的依恋，当时，即使是在像代顿这样的单一大都市地区，各党派也将自己划分为意识形态、地理位置不同的阵营，这让许多选民陷入了困境。

And they had profound contempt for a dysfunctional, hyper-prosperous Washington that they saw as utterly removed from their lives.

他们对功能失调、超级繁荣的华盛顿深感蔑视，认为它与他们的生活完全相距甚远。

These newly energized voters helped Trump flip not only battlegrounds like Ohio and Iowa but long-blue Northern industrial states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin — without which he would have lost to Hillary Clinton.

这些新近充满活力的选民不仅帮助特朗普扭转了俄亥俄州和爱荷华州等战场，还帮助特朗普扭转了长期蓝色的北方工业州——宾夕法尼亚州、密歇根州、威斯康星州——如果没有这些州，他就会输给希拉里·克林顿。

Nationwide, his margin with the white working class soared to 40 points , up 15 points from Romney’s in 2012.

在全国范围内，他与白人工人阶级的差距飙升至 40 个百分点，比 2012 年罗姆尼高出 15 个百分点。

Two days after meeting Hammel, I tagged along with some Trump supporters, women who’d come all the way from Buffalo to go canvassing door-to-door in the adjacent Dayton suburb of Miamisburg.

与哈梅尔会面两天后，我尾随了一些特朗普的支持者，她们是从布法罗千里迢迢来到邻近的代顿郊区迈阿密斯堡挨家挨户拉票的妇女。

It was a rainy day, and few were answering their doors in this neighborhood of frayed frame houses and bungalows, but they persisted in their yellow ponchos; I couldn’t help but be reminded of the doggedness I’d observed among Obama volunteers in 2008.

那是一个下雨天，在这个破旧的木屋和平房附近，很少有人开门，但他们坚持穿着黄色雨披；我不禁想起 2008 年我在奥巴马志愿者中观察到的顽强精神。

At one small house, someone finally answered the door.

一栋小房子里，终于有人来开门了。

Tracie St. Martin stepped out onto the porch, a 54-year-old woman with a sturdy, thick-muscled build and sun-weathered face, both of them products of her 26 years as a heavy-construction worker.

特蕾西·圣·马丁 (Tracie St. Martin) 54 岁，是一位 5​​4 岁的女士，她身材魁梧，肌肉发达，脸庞饱经阳光的照射，这一切都是她 26 年重型建筑工人生涯的产物。

St. Martin greeted the women warmly, and when they told her what they were there for she said, sure, she was considering Trump — even though she usually voted Democratic.

圣马丁热情地向这些妇女打招呼，当她们告诉她她们来这里的目的时，她说，当然，她正在考虑特朗普——尽管她通常投票给民主党。

And when they got talking, in the disjointed way of canvassers making a quick pitch, about how Trump was going to bring back the good jobs, St. Martin was visibly affected.

当他们以游说者快速推销的方式杂乱无章地谈论特朗普将如何带回好工作时，圣马丁明显受到了影响。

She interrupted them, wanting to tell them about how she had, not long ago, worked a job that consisted of demolishing a big local GM plant.

她打断了他们，想告诉他们不久前她是如何完成一份包括拆除当地一家大型通用汽车工厂的工作的。

Her eyes welled up as she told the story and she had trouble continuing.

当她讲述这个故事时，她的眼睛湿润了，无法继续下去。

The canvassers gave her some materials and bade her farewell.

文字布道者给了她一些材料，然后向她告别。

But I doubled back a little later and visited with St. Martin in her kitchen, which she was in the midst of tidying up, with daytime TV playing in the background.

但稍后我又折回圣马丁，去她的厨房拜访，她正在整理厨房，背景是白天的电视节目。

Space in the kitchen was tight due to the treadmill she recently bought to help her get into better shape, which she hoped might make her less dependent on the painkillers for the severe aches she got from her physically demanding job, pills that had gotten a lot harder to obtain from her doctor amid the clampdown on prescription opioids.

厨房里的空间很紧张，因为她最近买了一台跑步机来帮助她保持更好的体形，她希望这可以让她减少对止痛药的依赖，以缓解她因体力消耗大的工作而产生的严重疼痛，在处方阿片类药物受到限制的情况下，从医生那里获得药物变得更加困难。

St. Martin apologized, unnecessarily, for her emotions on the porch and expanded on what she had told the women from Buffalo: She was a proud member of Local 18 of the operating engineers’ union, which had been urging its members to support Hillary Clinton.

圣马丁不必要地为她在门廊上的情绪道歉，并详细阐述了她对布法罗妇女们所说的话：她是操作工程师工会第 18 号工会的自豪成员，该工会一直敦促其成员支持希拉里·克林顿。

The union provided her health insurance and decent pay levels, and trained her for demanding work, which, just months earlier, had required her to hang off of a Pennsylvania cliff face in her dozer as part of a gas pipeline project.

工会为她提供了健康保险和体面的工资水平，并培训她从事高要求的工作，就在几个月前，作为天然气管道项目的一部分，这还要求她开着推土机挂在宾夕法尼亚州的悬崖上。

She came from a staunch Democratic family and had voted for Barack Obama in 2008, before not voting in 2012 because, she said, she was away on one of her long-term jobs.

她来自一个坚定的民主党家庭，曾于 2008 年投票支持巴拉克·奥巴马 (Barack Obama)，但在 2012 年没有投票，她说，因为她因一份长期工作而外出。

She was a single mother with three grown daughters.

她是一位单身母亲，有三个已成年的女儿。

She had experienced all manner of sexual discrimination and harassment on very male-heavy worksites over the years.

多年来，她在男性较多的工作场所经历了各种性别歧视和骚扰。

She was, in other words, as tailor-made a supporter as one could find for Clinton, a self-professed fighter for the average Jane who was running to become the first woman president.

换句话说，她是克林顿量身定制的支持者，自称是竞选第一位女总统的普通简的斗士。

Her explanation for this was halting but vehement, spoken with pauses and in bursts.

她对此的解释结结巴巴，但却很激烈，时断时续，断断续续。

She was disappointed in Obama after having voted for him.

投票给奥巴马后，她对他感到失望。

“I don’t like the Obama persona, his public appearance and demeanor,” she said.

“我不喜欢奥巴马的形象、他的公众形象和举止，”她说。

“I wanted people like me to be cared about.

“我希望像我这样的人受到关心。

People don’t realize there’s nothing without a blue-collar worker.” She regretted that she did not have a deeper grasp of public affairs.

人们没有意识到没有蓝领工人就什么都不是。”她遗憾自己没有对公共事务有更深入的了解。

“No one that’s voting knows all the facts,” she said.

“投票的人都不知道所有事实，”她说。

“It’s a shame.

“真遗憾。

They keep us so fucking busy and poor that we don’t have the time.”

他们让我们变得如此忙碌和贫穷，以至于我们没有时间。”

When she addressed Clinton herself, it was in a stream that seemed to refer to, but not explicitly name, several of the charges thrown against Clinton by that point in time, including her handling of the deadly 2012 attack by Islamic militants on U.S. facilities in Benghazi, Libya; the potential conflicts of interest at the Clinton Foundation; and her use of a private email server while serving as Secretary of State, mixing national security business with emails to her daughter, Chelsea.

当她向克林顿本人发表讲话时，信息流似乎提到了当时对克林顿提出的几项指控，但没有明确提及，包括她对 2012 年伊斯兰激进分子对利比亚班加西美国设施致命袭击的处理；克林顿基金会的潜在利益冲突；她在担任国务卿期间使用私人电子邮件服务器，将国家安全事务与给女儿切尔西的电子邮件混合在一起。

“To have lives be sacrificed because of corporate greed and warmongering, it’s too much for me — and I realize I don’t have all the facts — that there’s just too much sidestepping on her.

“因为企业的贪婪和好战而牺牲生命，这对我来说太过分了——而且我意识到我不了解所有事实——对她的回避太多了。

I don’t trust her.

我不信任她。

I don’t think that — I know there’s casualties of war in conflict, I’m a big girl, I know that.

我不这么认为——我知道冲突中会有战争伤亡，我是个大女孩，我知道这一点。

But I lived my life with no secrets.

但我的生活没有秘密。

There’s no shame in the truth.

真相并不可耻。

There’s mistakes made.

有错误。

We all grow.

我们都会成长。

She’s a mature woman and she should know that.

她是一个成熟的女人，她应该知道这一点。

You don’t email your fucking daughter when you’re a leader.

当你是领导者时，你不会给你他妈的女儿发电子邮件。

Leaders need to make decisions, they need to be focused.

领导者需要做出决定，他们需要集中注意力。

You don’t hide stuff.

你不隐藏东西。

“That’s why I like Trump,” she continued.

“这就是我喜欢特朗普的原因，”她继续道。

“He’s not perfect.

“他并不完美。

He’s a human being.

他是一个人。

We all make mistakes.

我们都会犯错误。

We can all change our mind.

我们都可以改变主意。

We get educated, but once you have the knowledge, you still have to go with your gut.”

我们受过教育，但一旦你掌握了知识，你仍然必须跟随自己的直觉。”

Hand-wringing among Democrats about the party’s declining support among white working-class voters goes back a long time, to Lyndon Johnson’s declaration that signing the Civil Rights Act would sacrifice the allegiance of white Southerners.

民主党人对该党在白人工人阶级选民中支持率下降的担忧可以追溯到很久以前，林登·约翰逊宣称签署《民权法案》将牺牲南方白人的忠诚。

Then came the rest of the historical litany: the crime wave, riots and anti-Vietnam War protests of the late 1960s, the consolidation of suburban white flight, Nixon’s Silent Majority, Reagan Democrats, NAFTA, gun control, the War on Coal, and on and on.

接下来是历史长篇大论的其余部分：20世纪60年代末的犯罪浪潮、骚乱和反越战抗议活动、郊区白人逃亡的巩固、尼克松的沉默多数、里根民主党、北美自由贸易协定、枪支管制、煤炭战争等等。

By this year, many liberals had gotten so fed up with hearing about these woebegone voters and all their political needs that they were openly declaring them a lost cause, motivated more by racial issues than economic anxiety , and declaring that the expanding Democratic coalition of racial and ethnic minorities and college-educated white voters obviated the need to cater to the white working class.

到了今年，许多自由主义者已经厌倦了听到这些悲惨的选民和他们所有的政治需求，以至于他们公开宣称他们是失败的事业，更多的是出于种族问题而不是经济焦虑，并宣称不断扩大的由种族和族裔少数群体以及受过大学教育的白人选民组成的民主党联盟消除了迎合白人工人阶级的需要。

But this assessment suffered from a fatal overgeneralization.

但这一评估存在致命的过度概括的问题。

The “white working class” was a hugely broad category — as pollsters defined it, any white voter without a four-year college degree, roughly one-third of the electorate.

“白人工人阶级”是一个非常广泛的类别——正如民意调查机构所定义的那样，任何没有四年制大学学位的白人选民，大约占选民的三分之一。

Within that category were crucial distinctions, especially regional ones.

在这一类别中存在着重要的区别，尤其是区域性的区别。

Democrats in national elections had lost most white working-class voters in the Deep South — indeed, virtually all white voters there — a long time ago.

很久以前，民主党在全国选举中就失去了南方腹地的大多数白人工人阶级选民——实际上，几乎是那里的所有白人选民。

They had in the past decade and a half seen much of Greater Appalachia, stretching from the Alleghenies to Arkansas, follow suit, to the point where West Virginia, one of just five states that Jimmy Carter won in 1980, went for Mitt Romney by 26 percentage points in 2012.

在过去十五年里，他们见证了从阿勒格尼山脉到阿肯色州的大阿巴拉契亚地区的大部分地区纷纷效仿，甚至西弗吉尼亚州（吉米·卡特在 1980 年赢得的仅有的五个州之一）在 2012 年以 26 个百分点的优势支持了米特·罗姆尼。

It was hard to see how the Democrats were going to win back coal country like Logan County, W.V., which Bill Clinton won with 72 percent in 1996 but where Obama got only 29 percent in 2012.

很难看出民主党将如何赢回像西弗吉尼亚州洛根县这样的煤炭县，比尔·克林顿在 1996 年以 72% 的选票赢得了该县，但奥巴马在 2012 年仅获得了 29%。

Dayton was once a bastion of the GOP establishment.

代顿曾经是共和党建制派的堡垒。

The story of how the city changed helps explain the rise of Donald Trump.

这座城市如何变化的故事有助于解释唐纳德·特朗普的崛起。

Read the story .

读故事。

Our series seeks to show how politics and government really work, and why they don’t.

我们的系列旨在展示政治和政府如何真正运作，以及为什么它们不运作。

See The Breakdown .

请参阅细分。

But there was a whole subset of the white working class Obama was still winning : voters in northern states where unions, however diminished, still served to remind members of their Democratic roots (and build inter-racial solidarity).

但奥巴马仍然赢得了白人工人阶级的一小部分人的胜利：北部各州的选民，那里的工会尽管减少了，但仍然有助于提醒成员他们的民主党根源（并建立种族间团结）。

In these states, voters could still find national figures who represented them and their sort, people like Ohio Sen.

在这些州，选民仍然可以找到代表他们和他们的同类的国家人物，比如俄亥俄州参议员。

Sherrod Brown and Vice President Joe Biden.

谢罗德·布朗和副总统乔·拜登。

Lackawanna County, Pennsylvania, centered on Biden’s hometown of Scranton, went for Obama with 63 percent of the vote in 2012.

以拜登家乡斯克兰顿为中心的宾夕法尼亚州拉克万纳县 2012 年以 63% 的选票支持奥巴马。

Rural Marquette County, in Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, went for him with 56 percent of the vote.

密歇根州上半岛的乡村马凯特县以 56% 的选票支持他。

In Ohio, there were a couple counties in the state’s Appalachian southeast that went stronger for Obama in 2012 than they had in 2008.

在俄亥俄州，该州阿巴拉契亚东南部的几个县在 2012 年对奥巴马的支持度比 2008 年更强。

In the opposite corner of the state, gratitude for Obama’s bailout of the auto industry helped win him 64 percent of the vote in Lucas County, around Toledo.

在该州的另一角，出于对奥巴马对汽车业救助的感激之情，他在托莱多附近的卢卡斯县赢得了 64% 的选票。

Across the North, Obama ran even or ahead with John Kerry and Al Gore among white working class voters; their raw vote total for him nationwide exceeded his tallies of college-educated white voters and minority supporters.

在整个北方，奥巴马在白人工人阶级选民中的支持率与约翰·克里和阿尔·戈尔持平或领先。他们在全国范围内对他的原始投票总数超过了受过大学教育的白人选民和少数族裔支持者的总数。

On Election Day 2012, one voter I spoke with in Columbus, Ohio, encapsulated how well Obama had managed to frame the election as a “who’s on your side” choice between himself and the private equity titan Mitt Romney, and thereby hold onto enough white working-class voters in crucial swing states.

2012 年选举日，我在俄亥俄州哥伦布市采访了一位选民，他概括了奥巴马如何成功地将选举框架设计为他自己和私募股权巨头米特·罗姆尼之间“谁站在你一边”的选择，从而在关键的摇摆州留住了足够的白人工人阶级选民。

Matt Bimberg, 50, was waiting by himself at a remote bus stop in a black neighborhood on the edge of town.

50 岁的马特·宾伯格 (Matt Bimberg) 独自在城镇边缘黑人社区的一个偏远公交车站等候。

He had in the past decade lost jobs as a telecom technician for Global Crossing (he still carried a Global Crossing tote bag) and at a factory making escape hatches for buses.

在过去的十年里，他失去了环球电讯电信技术员的工作（他仍然带着环球电讯的手提包）和一家制造公共汽车逃生舱口的工厂。

But he had just landed a job at a nearby warehouse as a forklift operator, a success for which he credited a three-week training course paid for by the U.S. Department of Labor.

但他刚刚在附近的一个仓库找到了一份叉车操作员的工作，他将这一成功归功于美国劳工部支付的为期三周的培训课程。

And as gratitude for that, he was voting for Obama after voting for John McCain in 2008.

作为对此的感谢，他在 2008 年投票给约翰·麦凯恩后又投票给了奥巴马。

“My line of thinking was that under Romney and [Paul] Ryan, it would be more of a trickle-down administration,” he said.

“我的想法是，在罗姆尼和[保罗]瑞安的领导下，这将更像是一个涓滴政府，”他说。

“Their thinking is to give that money to corporations and the rich in tax breaks, and some will trickle down.

“他们的想法是将这些钱通过税收减免的方式提供给企业和富人，其中一些会慢慢渗透下来。

But it didn’t work then and it won’t work now.

但当时行不通，现在也行不通。

Romney reminds me so much of Reagan’s theory of supply-side economics.

罗姆尼让我想起了里根的供给侧经济学理论。

It scares me.”

这让我害怕。”

Not so long ago, Hillary Clinton would have seemed ideally suited to keep such northern white working-class voters in the fold.

不久前，希拉里·克林顿似乎非常适合保留这些北方白人工人阶级选民。

After all, she had trounced Obama among many of these very voters in the 2008 primaries, as she beat him in states such as Ohio and Pennsylvania and at one point went so far as to declare herself, in a slip of the tongue, the champion of “working, hard-working Americans, white Americans.”

毕竟，在 2008 年的初选中，她在众多选民中击败了奥巴马，就像她在俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州等州击败了奥巴马一样，甚至一度口误宣称自己是“工作、勤奋的美国人、美国白人”的拥护者。

But things had changed in the intervening years.

但在随后的几年里，情况发生了变化。

For one thing, she was further removed from her stint representing downtrodden upstate New York as a senator — she had spent the years since 2008 in the rarefied realm of the State Department and then giving more than 80 paid speeches to banks, corporations and trade associations, for a total haul of $18 million.

一方面，她被进一步解除了代表受压迫的纽约州北部参议员的职务——自 2008 年以来，她多年来一直在国务院的稀有领域工作，然后向银行、企业和行业协会发表了 80 多场有偿演讲，总收入达 1800 万美元。

For another thing, cause for resentment and letdown had grown in many of those Rust Belt communities where Obama had held his own — they might be inching their way back from the Great Recession, but the progress was awfully slow, and they were lagging ever further behind booming coastal cities like New York, San Francisco and Washington, where the income gap compared with the rest of the country had grown far larger.

另一方面，在奥巴马执政的许多铁锈地带社区，怨恨和失望的情绪日益高涨——他们可能正在从大衰退中慢慢恢复过来，但进展非常缓慢，而且远远落后于纽约、旧金山和华盛顿等蓬勃发展的沿海城市，这些城市与美国其他地区的收入差距已经拉得更大。

Most crucially, she was running not against Mitt Romney, the man from Bain Capital, but against Donald Trump.

最关键的是，她竞选的对手不是贝恩资本的米特·罗姆尼，而是唐纳德·特朗普。

Yes, Trump was (or claimed to be) a billionaire himself, but he was not of Romney’s upper crust — they scorned him and his casinos and gold-plated jet, and were giving him virtually none of their campaign contributions.

是的，特朗普本人是（或声称是）亿万富翁，但他不属于罗姆尼的上层阶级——他们蔑视他和他的赌场和镀金飞机，并且几乎没有给他任何竞选捐款。

Trump attacked the trade deals that had helped hollow out these voters’ communities, he attacked the Mexicans who had heavily populated some of their towns and had driven much of the heroin trade in others, and, yes, he tapped into broader racial resentments as well.

特朗普攻击了导致这些选民社区空心化的贸易协定，他攻击了墨西哥人，他们在一些城镇人口稠密，并推动了其他城镇的海洛因贸易，而且，是的，他还利用了更广泛的种族怨恨。

Faced with this populist opposition, Clinton fatefully opted against taking the “I’m on your side; he’s not” tack that Obama had used so well against Romney, and had instead gone about attacking Trump’s fitness for the presidency.

面对民粹主义的反对，克林顿命运般地选择不采取“我站在你这边；他不是奥巴马用来对付罗姆尼的策略，而是开始攻击特朗普是否适合担任总统。

Back in Dayton, where Clinton never visited during the entire campaign, I had run into two more former Obama voters after Trump’s March rally there.

回到代顿，克林顿在整个竞选期间从未访问过那里，特朗普在那里举行三月集会后，我又遇到了两名前奥巴马选民。

Both Heath Bowling and Alex Jones admitted to having been swept up in the Obama wave, but had since grown somewhat disenchanted.

希斯·鲍林和亚历克斯·琼斯都承认自己被奥巴马浪潮所席卷，但此后变得有些失望。

Bowling, 36, a burly man with a big smile, managed a small siding and insulation business, and as he’d grown older he’d had gotten more bothered about the dependency on food stamps he saw around him, especially among members of his own generation, and demoralized by the many overdose deaths in his circle.

36 岁的鲍林是个身材魁梧、笑容满面的男人，经营着一家小型壁板和隔热材料生意，随着年龄的增长，他越来越担心周围人对食品券的依赖，尤其是他这一代人，他的圈子里出现了许多因服药过量而死亡的人，这让他士气低落。

Jones, 30, who worked part-time at a pizza shop and delivering medicines to nursing homes, joked at first that his vote for Obama might have had to do with his having been doing a lot of drugs at the time.

30 岁的琼斯在一家披萨店做兼职，并为疗养院送药品。他一开始开玩笑说，他投票给奥巴马可能与他当时吸毒过多有关。

He grew serious when he talked about how much the Black Lives Matter protests against shootings by police officers grated on him.

当他谈到针对警察枪击事件的“黑人生命也是命”抗议活动有多么让他恼火时，他变得严肃起来。

Chicago was experiencing soaring homicide rates, he said — why weren’t more people talking about that?

他说，芝加哥的凶杀率正在飙升——为什么没有更多的人谈论这个问题呢？

He was upset that when he went out on the town in Cincinnati’s Over-the-Rhine bar district, he had to worry about getting jumped if he was on the street past a certain hour — and that he felt constrained against complaining against it.

他感到不安的是，当他去辛辛那提莱茵河畔酒吧区的小镇时，如果他在街上超过某个小时，他就不得不担心被跳到——而且他觉得自己无法对此进行抱怨。

“If I say anything about that, I’m a racist,” he said.

“如果我对此说什么，我就是一个种族主义者，”他说。

“I can’t stand that politically correct bullshit.” He had, he said, taken great solace in confiding recently in an older black man at a bar who had agreed with his musing on race and crime.

“我无法忍受那种政治正确的废话。”他说，最近在一家酒吧向一位年长的黑人吐露心声，他得到了很大的安慰，这位黑人同意他对种族和犯罪的看法。

“It was like a big burden lifted from me — here was this black man agreeing with me!”

“这就像从我身上卸下了一个沉重的负担——这个黑人同意我的观点！”

Polls had consistently showed that Trump’s support was stronger with white working-class men than women, and in October came a revelation that seemed sure to weaken his standing among women of all classes, release of an 11-year-old tape in which Trump boasted of trying to commit adultery with a married woman and grabbing women “by the pussy.”

民意调查一直显示，特朗普在白人工人阶级男性中的支持率高于女性，而 10 月份的一项爆料似乎肯定会削弱他在各阶层女性中的地位，即一段 11 年前的录音带的发布，其中特朗普吹嘘自己试图与已婚妇女通奸，并“抓住女性的阴户”。

A few days after the release of the tape, which was followed by a string of accusations from women saying they had been sexually harassed and assaulted by Trump, I checked back in with Tracie St. Martin to see if she still supported him.

录音带发布几天后，随之而来的是一系列女性指控她们受到特朗普的性骚扰和性侵犯，我再次联系了特雷西·圣马丁，看看她是否仍然支持他。

She was working on a new gas plant in Middletown, a working-class town near Dayton that was the setting of the recent best-selling memoir “Hillbilly Elegy.” Here’s what she wrote back in a text message: “I still appreciate the honesty in some of his comments.

她当时正在米德尔敦的一家新天然气厂工作，米德尔敦是代顿附近的一个工人阶级小镇，也是最近畅销的回忆录《乡巴佬挽歌》的背景。以下是她在短信中回复的内容：“我仍然很欣赏他的一些评论中的诚实。

Most of his comments.

大部分都是他的评论。

I still favor what he says he may be able to do.

我仍然赞成他所说的他可能能够做到的事情。

I am voting against Hillary, come what may with Trump.

我将投票反对希拉里，无论特朗普如何。

It’s important to me that ‘we the people’ actually have political power.

对我来说重要的是“我们人民”实际上拥有政治权力。

And electing Trump will prove that.

特朗普的当选将证明这一点。

I am AMAZED at the number of people voting for him.

我对投票给他的人数感到惊讶。

The corruption is disgusting in the press.

新闻界的腐败令人厌恶。

Yes, as of right now I am voting FOR Trump.” She was sure he would win, she said: "His support is crazy!

是的，从现在起我投票给特朗普。”她确信他会获胜，她说：“他的支持太疯狂了！

The polls have to be wrong.

民意调查一定是错误的。

Have to be fixed.”

必须修复。”

And she shared an anecdote that reflected how differently Trump’s comments had been received in some places than others.

她还分享了一件轶事，反映出特朗普的言论在某些地方与其他地方的反应有多么不同。

“I’m setting steel for this new gas plant…I’m operating a rough terrain forklift,” she wrote.

“我正在为这个新的天然气工厂安装钢材……我正在操作一台越野叉车，”她写道。

“So today, I kept thinking about the debate and the audio was released …

“所以今天，我一直在思考这场辩论，音频被发布了……

And I got underneath a load of steel and was moving it…I was laughing and laughing and one of the iron workers asked ‘what are u laughing at.’ I said ‘I grabbed that load right by the pussy’ and laughed some more…And said ‘when you’re an operator you can do that ya know’, laughed all fucking day."

我走到一堆钢铁下面，正在移动它……我笑啊笑，一个钢铁工人问‘你在笑什么’。我说‘我抓住了那个负载’，然后又笑了一些……然后说‘当你是一名操作员时，你可以做到这一点’，他妈的笑了一整天。”

Just last week, I was back in Ohio, in the southeastern Appalachian corner.

就在上周，我回到了阿巴拉契亚东南角的俄亥俄州。

I was at a graduation ceremony for opiate addicts who had gone through a recovery program, and sitting with four women, all around 30, who were still in the program.

我参加了一个为鸦片成瘾者举办的毕业典礼，她们已经完成了康复计划，我和四名仍在参加该计划的女性坐在一起，她们都在 30 岁左右。

Someone mentioned the election, and all four of them piped up that they were voting for the first time ever.

有人提到了这次选举，他们四个人都大声说他们是第一次投票。

For whom?

为了谁？

I asked.

我问。

They looked at me as if I had asked the dumbest question in the world.

他们看着我，好像我问了世界上最愚蠢的问题。

All four were for Trump.

这四个人都支持特朗普。

The most of the loquacious of the group, Tiffany Chesser, said she was voting for him because her boyfriend worked at a General Electric light-bulb plant nearby that was seeing more of its production lines being moved to Mexico.

该团体中最健谈的蒂芙尼·切瑟(Tiffany Chesser)表示，她之所以投票给他，是因为她的男友在附近的通用电气灯泡厂工作，该厂的更多生产线正在迁往墨西哥。

She saw voting for Trump as a straightforward transaction to save his job.

她认为投票给特朗普是挽救他工作的简单交易。

“If he loses that job we’re screwed — I’ll lose my house,” she said.

“如果他失去了那份工作，我们就完蛋了——我就会失去我的房子，”她说。

“There used to be a full parking lot there — now you go by, there are just three trucks in the lot.”

“那里曾经有一个完整的停车场——现在你经过时，停车场里只有三辆卡车。”

But Chesser also was viscerally opposed to Clinton who, the week prior, had endured a surprise announcement from FBI Director James Comey that a newly discovered cache of emails of hers was under scrutiny.

但切瑟也本能地反对克林顿，一周前，联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米意外宣布，她的一份新发现的电子邮件正在接受审查。

“If she’s being investigated by the FBI, there’s a reason for it,” she said.

“如果她正在接受联邦调查局的调查，那是有原因的，”她说。

I asked the women if they weren’t equally bothered by the many women’s accusations against Trump.

我问这些女性是否同样对许多女性对特朗普的指控感到困扰。

They shrugged.

他们耸耸肩。

“It’s locker-room talk,” Chesser said.

“这是更衣室里的谈话，”切瑟说。

“I know girls talk like that, and I know guys do.” But what about the accusations of assault?

“我知道女孩子们都这样说话，我也知道男人们也是这样。”但袭击指控又如何呢？

“Why are they just coming forward now?” she said.

“他们为什么现在才站出来？”她说。

“If he did it to me before, I’d have come forward then.

“如果他以前对我这么做，我就会挺身而出。

I wouldn’t wait until now.”

我不会等到现在。”

The next day, I met with Taylor Sappington, a native of Southeast Ohio who, after graduating from Ohio University, had decided to run for town council last year in Nelsonville, pop.

第二天，我会见了泰勒·萨平顿 (Taylor Sappington)，他是俄亥俄州东南部人，从俄亥俄大学毕业后，去年决定竞选波普尼尔森维尔镇议会议员。

5,400, and won a seat.

5,400，赢得一个席位。

Sappington, who had been raised in a manufactured home by a single mother and whose brother works as a corrections officer, was a proud Democrat.

萨平顿是一位自豪的民主党人，她由单身母亲在人造房屋中长大，他的兄弟是一名狱警。

He had volunteered for Obama’s 2012 campaign and took comfort in knowing that parts of Southeast Ohio had remained solid for the Democrats, unlike so much of the rest of Appalachia.

他曾自愿参加奥巴马 2012 年的竞选活动，并因得知俄亥俄州东南部部分地区与阿巴拉契亚其他地区不同，仍对民主党有利而感到欣慰。

But he knew that Clinton would not perform as well in the area as Obama had.

但他知道克林顿在该地区的表现不会像奥巴马那样好。

“It’s a Democratic area.

“这是一个民主地区。

But Trump has blown a hole through it,” he said.

但特朗普已经把它炸开了一个洞，”他说。

“They feel like this is a forgotten area that’s suffering, that has been forgotten by Columbus and Washington and then they hear someone say, we can turn this place around, they feel it viscerally.”

“他们觉得这是一个被遗忘的地区，正在遭受苦难，被哥伦布和华盛顿遗忘了，然后他们听到有人说，我们可以扭转这个地方，他们发自内心地感受到了这一点。”

And he feared that the national Democratic Party did not realize how little it could afford such a loss, or even realize how well it had those voters in the fold as recently as 2012.

他担心全国民主党没有意识到自己无力承受这样的损失，甚至没有意识到就在 2012 年，它是如何很好地吸引了这些选民的。

“I’m a believer in the Democratic coalition, but they’re writing off folks and it’s going to hurt them,” he said.

“我是民主党联盟的信徒，但他们正在抛弃人们，这会伤害他们，”他说。

“To write them off is reckless.”

“注销它们是鲁莽的。”

A week later, on Election Day, I drove to a polling station in Shrewsbury, Pennsylvania, a small town south of York, just across the Maryland line.

一周后，在选举日，我开车前往宾夕法尼亚州什鲁斯伯里的一个投票站，这是约克以南的一个小镇，就在马里兰州界线对面。

The polling station was inside an evangelical church housed inside a vast, mostly abandoned shopping plaza.

投票站位于一座福音派教堂内，教堂位于一个巨大的、大部分废弃的购物广场内。

It’s Republican country, where Romney outpolled Obama 2–1, but I was still startled by how long it was taking me to find a single Hillary Clinton voter.

这是共和党国家，罗姆尼的民调以 2 比 1 击败了奥巴马，但我仍然惊讶于我花了这么长时间才找到一个希拉里·克林顿的选民。

But there was yet another woman voting for the first time in her life, at age 55, for Trump.

但还有另一位女性在 55 岁时生平第一次投票给特朗普。

“I didn’t have much interest in politics.

“我对政治没有太大兴趣。

But the older you get you realize more and more how important it is,” said Kelly Waldemire, who works in a local plastic-molding plant.

但随着年龄的增长，你会越来越意识到它的重要性，”在当地一家塑料成型厂工作的凯利·瓦尔德迈尔 (Kelly Waldemire) 说。

“When it got to the point where the country is going in the wrong direction, I thought it was time.”

“当国家走向错误方向时，我认为是时候了。”

And there was yet another voter who had been for Obama in 2008 — Brian Osbourne, a 33-year-old Navy veteran who now drove all the way to Washington, D.C., every day to do commercial HVAC work because it paid double there what it would in Shrewsbury.

还有一位 2008 年支持奥巴马的选民——布莱恩·奥斯本 (Brian Osbourne)，他是一名 33 岁的海军退伍军人，现在每天长途跋涉前往华盛顿特区从事商业暖通空调工作，因为那里的工资是什鲁斯伯里的两倍。

The local economy had come back a little, he said, but “there’s a lot of people working jobs that they’re overqualified for.” That wasn’t all, he said.

他说，当地经济已经有所回升，但“有很多人从事着资历过高的工作。”他说，这还不是全部。

He hesitated, warning that what he was about to say wasn’t “politically correct,” and then said, “We’re really getting pussified as a country.”

他犹豫了一下，警告说他要说的话不“政治正确”，然后说，“作为一个国家，我们真的变得胆怯了。”

I asked what he made of reports that Trump wrote off as much of a billion dollars on his taxes to avoid paying any at all.

我问他对特朗普注销了多达 10 亿美元的税款以避免缴纳任何税款的报道有何看法。

He shrugged it off just as every Trump voter I spoke with there did.

他对此不屑一顾，就像我采访过的每一位特朗普选民一样。

“That doesn’t worry me all that much,” he said.

“这并没有让我太担心，”他说。

“That’s what he does — that’s the loophole the government created.

“这就是他所做的——这就是政府制造的漏洞。

He takes advantage of what the system created.

他利用了系统所创造的东西。

I’d do the same thing.”

我也会做同样的事情。”

As for Obama, his promise of racial reconciliation had been a “big letdown,” he said.

至于奥巴马，他表示，他对种族和解的承诺“令人大失所望”。

“I thought it would help with race relations, but it’s getting way worse,” he said.

“我以为这会有助于改善种族关系，但情况变得更糟了，”他说。

“I wouldn’t be surprised if we have another civil war in this country.”

“如果这个国家再次发生内战，我不会感到惊讶。”

And there were yet more women willing to wave off Trump’s comment on the tape and the women’s accusations against him.

还有更多的女性愿意对特朗普在录音中的评论以及女性对他的指控不予理睬。

“I don’t take that crap seriously,” said Tammy Nuth, 49, who cares for Alzheimer’s patients.

49 岁的塔米·努斯 (Tammy Nuth) 负责照顾阿尔茨海默氏症患者，他说：“我不会把这些废话当真。”

“Men are men.” As for the women accusers: “I think they’re getting paid off.”

“男人就是男人。”至于女性原告：“我认为她们得到了回报。”

As I was preparing to leave, I glimpsed a young woman who I guessed might’ve voted for Clinton, and approached her to help balance my reporting.

当我准备离开时，我瞥见了一位年轻女性，我猜她可能会投票给克林顿，于是我走近她，以帮助平衡我的报道。

I was wrong.

我错了。

Stephanie Armetta, an 18-year-old working as a grocery store cashier before heading to community college, had cast her first-ever ballot, for Donald Trump.

18 岁的斯蒂芬妮·阿尔梅塔 (Stephanie Armetta) 在进入社区大学之前曾担任杂货店收银员，她将人生第一张选票投给了唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump)。

Her family had many members in the military, she said, and she thought Trump would “have more respect” for them.

她说，她的家人有很多军人，她认为特朗普会对他们“更加尊重”。

She thought it was wrong that if her brother got deployed, he got only two meals per day, while people in prison get three.

她认为，如果她的兄弟被部署，他每天只能吃两顿饭，而监狱里的人却只能吃三顿饭，这是错误的。

And then of course there was Benghazi, “that she left [the four Americans] there, that they weren’t her priority.” She was bothered by Trump’s comments on the tape, for sure.

当然还有班加西，“她把[四名美国人]留在那里，他们不是她的首要任务。”当然，她对特朗普在录音带上的评论感到不安。

But, she said, “I’m glad how he didn’t lie about it.

但是，她说：“我很高兴他没有对此撒谎。

They caught him and he said, yeah, I said an asshole thing.” Not to mention, she said, “Bill Clinton isn’t good either on that subject.” Her vote, she concluded, was “more against Hillary than for Trump.”

他们抓住了他，他说，是的，我说了一句混蛋的话。”更不用说，她说，“比尔·克林顿在这个问题上也不擅长。”她总结道，她的投票“更多的是反对希拉里而不是特朗普”。

Trump won that one small precinct by 144 more votes than Romney had won it in 2012 — a 20 percent increase.

特朗普以 144 票的优势赢得了这一小选区，比 2012 年罗姆尼赢得的选票多了 20%。

And all across rural and small-town Pennsylvania, that pattern repeated itself.

在宾夕法尼亚州的所有农村和小镇上，这种模式都在重演。

In Scranton’s Lackawanna County, where Obama had won 63 percent, Clinton won only 50 percent.

在斯克兰顿的拉克万纳县，奥巴马赢得了 63% 的选票，而克林顿只赢得了 50%。

In Michigan’s rural Marquette County, where Obama had won 56 percent, Clinton got only 49 percent.

在密歇根州的乡村马凯特县，奥巴马赢得了 56% 的选票，而克林顿只获得了 49%。

Trump became the first Republican since 1988 to win Pennsylvania or Michigan.

特朗普成为自 1988 年以来第一位赢得宾夕法尼亚州或密歇根州的共和党人。

In Ohio’s Mahoning County, home of Youngstown, where Obama got 63 percent, Clinton got only 50 percent.

在俄亥俄州扬斯敦的家乡马哈宁县，奥巴马获得了 63% 的支持率，而克林顿只获得了 50%。

In Hocking County, just adjacent to Nelsonville, Clinton fell even further, getting 30 percent, down from the 48 percent Obama had gotten, and realizing Taylor Sappington’s fears.

在毗邻尼尔森维尔的霍金县，克林顿的支持率进一步下降，从奥巴马的 48% 下降到了 30%，这也体现了泰勒·萨平顿的担忧。

And at Tracie St. Martin’s working-class precinct in Miamisburg, where Obama had managed to get 43 percent in 2012, Clinton’s support plunged to 26 percent, giving Trump a margin of 293 votes just in that one precinct, triple Romney’s margin four years earlier.

在迈阿密斯堡特雷西·圣马丁的工人阶级选区，奥巴马在 2012 年获得了 43% 的选票，而克林顿的支持率却骤降到了 26%，仅在该选区，特朗普就以 293 票的优势领先，是四年前罗姆尼领先优势的三倍。

That helped provide Trump a historic claim: the first Republican majority in Dayton's Montgomery County in 28 years.

这为特朗普提供了一个历史性的主张：共和党在代顿蒙哥马利县 28 年来首次获得多数席位。

Statewide, Trump won by a whopping eight percentage points, a swing of 10 points from four years earlier.

在全州范围内，特朗普以高达 8 个百分点的优势获胜，与四年前相比增加了 10 个百分点。

He had brought new voters out of the woodwork; he had converted some white working-class Obama voters while others had just stayed home.

他让新选民脱颖而出。他改变了一些白人工人阶级奥巴马选民的信仰，而其他人则只是呆在家里。

St. Martin, who was still hard at work on the Middletown gas plant with a “great bunch of ironworkers,” was elated.

圣马丁当时仍然和“一大群钢铁工人”一起在米德尔敦天然气厂辛勤工作，他很高兴。

“I just really needed to know that I was part of a majority that recognized we need these things that Trump spoke of,” she told me.

“我真的需要知道我是大多数人中的一员，他们认识到我们需要特朗普所说的这些东西，”她告诉我。

“More importantly for me, to NOT have Hillary as Commander in Chief.”

“对我来说更重要的是，不要让希拉里担任总司令。”

Thank you for your interest in republishing this story.

感谢您有兴趣重新发布这个故事。

You are are free to republish it so long as you do the following:

只要执行以下操作，您就可以自由重新发布它：