珍妮弗·伯恩斯：米尔顿·弗里德曼、安·兰德、经济学、资本主义与自由

The following is a conversation with Jennifer Burns, a historian of ideas including the evolution of economic, political, and social ideas in the United States in the 20th century to today.

以下是与思想史学家詹妮弗·伯恩斯（Jennifer Burns）的对话，内容包括20世纪至今美国经济、政治和社会思想的演变。

00:00 She wrote two biographies, one on Milton Friedman and the other on Ayn Rand, both of which I highly recommend.

她写了两本传记，一本是关于米尔顿·弗里德曼的，另一本是关于艾因·兰德的，我强烈推荐这两本。

This was a super technical and super fascinating conversation.

这是一次超级技术性且超级引人入胜的对话。

At the end, I make a few comments about my previous conversation with President Zelensky for those of you who may be interested.

最后，我就之前与泽连斯基总统的谈话谈几点看法，供感兴趣的朋友参考。

This is the Lex Fridman podcast.

这是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客。

To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description.

为了支持它，请在说明中查看我们的赞助商。

Now, dear friends, here’s Jennifer Burns.

现在，亲爱的朋友们，这是詹妮弗·伯恩斯。

00:48 You have written two biographies, one on Milton Friedman and one on Ayn Rand.

您写了两本传记，一本关于米尔顿·弗里德曼，一本关于艾因·兰德。

So if we can, we will focus on each one separately, but first, let’s talk about the ideas that two of them held in common, the value of individual freedom, skepticism of collectivism, and the ethics of capitalism.

因此，如果可以的话，我们将分别关注每一个，但首先，让我们谈谈其中两个共同的想法，个人自由的价值、集体主义的怀疑论和资本主义的伦理。

Can you talk about the big picture ideas they converge on?

您能谈谈他们所汇聚的大局想法吗？

Yeah.

是的。

01:11 So, Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand, in the biggest picture, they’re both individualists, and they’re skeptical of collectivities and collectivism.

所以，米尔顿·弗里德曼和艾因·兰德，从大局来看，他们都是个人主义者，他们对集体和集体主义持怀疑态度。

So, their unit of analysis is the individual.

因此，他们的分析单位是个人。

What’s good for the individual?

对个人有什么好处？

What works for the individual?

什么对个人有用？

Their understanding of society flows from that.

他们对社会的理解源于此。

They also both use this focus on individualism to justify and to support capitalism as a social and economic system.

他们还利用对个人主义的关注来证明和支持资本主义作为一种社会和经济体系。

So, we can put them in a similar category.

因此，我们可以将它们归入相似的类别。

We can call them individualists.

我们可以称他们为个人主义者。

We could call them libertarians of a sort.

我们可以称他们为某种自由主义者。

They’re also really different in how they approach capitalism, how they approach thinking.

他们在对待资本主义、思维方式上也有很大不同。

01:52 Ayn Rand developed her own moral and philosophical system to justify individualism, and to connect the individual to capitalism, and to support capitalism as a social and economic system.

安·兰德发展了自己的道德和哲学体系来证明个人主义的合理性，并将个人与资本主义联系起来，并支持资本主义作为一种社会和经济体系。

Friedman struggles a bit more with how to justify capitalism, and he’ll ultimately come down to freedom as his core value, like his God, as he says.

弗里德曼在如何为资本主义辩护方面更加挣扎，正如他所说，他最终将把自由作为他的核心价值观，就像他的上帝一样。

So, freedom does connect back to the individual, but he’s not justifying capitalism for his own sake.

因此，自由确实与个人联系在一起，但他并不是为了自己的利益而为资本主义辩护。

He’s justifying it for its ability to underwrite freedom in a social sense and also in the individual sense

他证明它有能力在社会意义上和个人意义上保障自由

At a high level, are there interesting differences between them?

从较高的层面来看，它们之间是否存在有趣的差异？

02:28 You already mentioned a few, maybe in terms of who they are personally, maybe in terms of how they approach the justification for capitalism, maybe other ways.

你已经提到了一些人，也许是他们个人，也许是他们如何为资本主义辩护，也许是其他方式。

Yeah, for sure.

是的，当然。

02:39 So beyond this idea that Milton Friedman takes a while to come to his justification of capitalism, whereas Ayn Rand has it from the start.

因此，除了这个想法之外，米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）花了一段时间才为资本主义辩护，而艾因·兰德（Ayn Rand）从一开始就有这个想法。

She really focuses on the core quality of rationalism and rationality.

她真正注重的是理性、理性的核心品质。

Rationality is the defining feature of human beings, and so she works from there, whereas Milton Friedman eventually converges on this idea of freedom.

理性是人类的决定性特征，因此她从那里开始工作，而米尔顿·弗里德曼最终集中在这种自由理念上。

So, that’s one part of it.

所以，这就是其中的一部分。

The other is their intellectual styles are really, really different.

另一个是他们的知识风格真的非常不同。

Their interpersonal styles are really different.

他们的人际关系风格确实不同。

03:12 So, Friedman has big ideas, big principles that guide him, but he’s also deeply empirical.

因此，弗里德曼有伟大的想法和伟大的原则来指导他，但他也非常注重经验。

He spends most of his career doing historical research, economic research, pulling data from how people actually make economic decisions, and live in the world, and using them to test and refine his theories.

他职业生涯的大部分时间都花在历史研究、经济研究上，从人们实际做出经济决策和生活的方式中提取数据，并用它们来检验和完善他的理论。

Where Rand, to some degree, we could say she’s empirical and that she lives through the Russian Revolution, and takes a very big lesson from that, but her style of thinking is really first principles, an axiomatic approach going from the basic idea of rationality, and then playing it out in different spheres.

兰德，在某种程度上，我们可以说她是经验派，她经历了俄罗斯革命，并从中吸取了很大的教训，但她的思维方式实际上是首要原则，一种从理性的基本理念出发的公理方法，然后在不同的领域发挥作用。

03:50 So, those are just very different intellectual approaches, and then they lead in some ways to really different ways of thinking about how you get things done in the world.

所以，这些只是非常不同的智力方法，然后它们在某些方面导致了真正不同的思考如何在世界上完成事情的方式。

Ayn Rand is a purist.

安·兰德是一位纯粹主义者。

She wants to start with the pure belief.

她想从纯粹的信仰开始。

She doesn’t want it to be diluted.

她不希望它被稀释。

One of her favorite sayings was, “It’s earlier than you think.” In other words, we’re still moving towards a place where we can really hold and express these ideals purely.

她最喜欢的一句话是：“这比你想象的要早。”换句话说，我们仍然在走向一个能够真正纯粹地持有和表达这些理想的地方。

Friedman, although he didn’t use this terminology, he was much more half a loaf guy like, “I’ll take what I can get, and then I’ll try to move to where I really want to be.” But he is able to compromise, especially when he moves from being an economist into being more of a political thinker.

弗里德曼，虽然他没有使用这个术语，但他更像是一个半面包人，“我会得到我能得到的，然后我会尝试移动到我真正想去的地方。”但他能够妥协，尤其是当他从经济学家转变为政治思想家时。

04:35 So, that’s a really different intellectual style, and then it also plays out in their lives, and that Ayn Rand is incredibly schismatic.

所以，这是一种非常不同的知识风格，然后它也在他们的生活中发挥作用，而且艾因·兰德是令人难以置信的分裂。

I mean, she wants her friends to believe what she believes and support what she supports.

我的意思是，她希望她的朋友相信她所相信的并支持她所支持的。

She’s willing to break a relationship if it doesn’t match.

如果一段关系不匹配，她愿意断绝关系。

Milton Friedman, he also does tend to have friends who agree with him, yet he’s always willing to debate his opponents, and he’s willing to do so with a smile on his face.

米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman），他也确实倾向于有同意他观点的朋友，但他总是愿意与他的对手辩论，而且他愿意面带微笑。

He’s a happy warrior, and he actually will win a lot of debates simply by his emotional affect and his cheerfulness and his confidence, where Rand will lose debates because she gets so angry in the face of disagreement.

他是一个快乐的战士，事实上，他仅仅凭借他的情感影响、他的快乐和他的自信就能赢得很多辩论，而兰德会输掉辩论，因为她在面对分歧时变得如此愤怒。

05:19 So, they have a lot of similarities and a lot of differences, and it’s been really fascinating to dive deep into both of them.

因此，它们有很多相似之处，也有很多不同之处，深入研究它们真的很有趣。

I just re-listened to Ayn Rand’s, I think, last lecture, or at least it’s called that, and just the confrontational nature of how she answers questions or how she addresses critics and so on.

我想，我刚刚重新听了安·兰德的上一堂课，或者至少是这样称呼的，以及她如何回答问题或如何应对批评者等的对抗性本质。

05:26 There is a kind of charisma to that.

这有一种魅力。

So, I think both of them are very effective at winning over a popular support, but in very different styles.

因此，我认为他们在赢得民众支持方面都非常有效，但风格却截然不同。

It seems like Ayn Rand is very cranky, but I mean, is the most charismatic, cranky person I think I’ve ever listened to.

艾因·兰德（Ayn Rand）似乎非常暴躁，但我的意思是，他是我听过的最有魅力、最暴躁的人。

I mean, people talked about her, meeting her, and coming to believe in her ideas in a similar way as they did with Marxism, and that suddenly everything made sense, and that when they came to believe in objectivism, they felt they had this engine for understanding the entire world.

我的意思是，人们谈论她，见到她，并以与马克思主义类似的方式开始相信她的想法，突然间一切都有意义了，当他们开始相信客观主义时，他们觉得自己拥有了理解整个世界的引擎。

06:00 Now after a while for most people, that then became confining, but that certainty.

对于大多数人来说，过了一段时间后，这种情况就变得有限了，但这种确定性却是存在的。

Friedman had some of that as well.

弗里德曼也有一些这样的经历。

He clothed it differently.

他给它穿上了不同的衣服。

He clothed it in happiness where Rand closed it, as you said, in crankiness or anger.

他给它披上幸福的外衣，而兰德却用暴躁或愤怒的方式封闭了它，正如你所说。

I mean, there’s also an arc to Rand.

我的意思是，兰德也有一条弧线。

06:35 She gets angrier and angrier and crankier and crankier over the course of her life.

在她的一生中，她变得越来越愤怒、越来越暴躁。

What I enjoyed about my research is I was able to get into this early moment when she was different and a little more open, and then I watched her close and her harden over time.

我对我的研究感到高兴的是，我能够进入她与众不同且更加开放的早期时刻，然后我看着她随着时间的推移而变得封闭和坚强。

Would it be fair to say that Milton Friedman had a bit more intellectual humility where he would be able to evolve over time, and be convinced by the reality of the world to change the nuances of policies, the nuances of how he thought about economics or about the world?

可以公平地说，米尔顿·弗里德曼在智力上更加谦虚，他能够随着时间的推移不断发展，并被世界现实所说服，改变政策的细微差别，以及他对经济或世界的看法的细微差别？

Yeah, absolutely.

是的，绝对是。

07:10 Friedman believed in being able to say, “I was wrong.”

弗里德曼相信能够说“我错了”。

Right.

正确的。

There are some things he said he was wrong about.

他说有些事情他错了。

07:15 We’ll delve more into monetarism and monetary policy, but he was able to talk about the ways his ideas hadn’t mapped onto the world the way he thought they would.

我们将更深入地探讨货币主义和货币政策，但他能够谈论他的想法没有按照他想象的方式映射到世界的方式。

He does a really interesting interview at the end of his life where he’s beginning to voice some doubts about globalization, which was he was sort of a prophet of globalization, a cheerleader of globalization.

他在生命的最后进行了一次非常有趣的采访，他开始对全球化表示一些怀疑，他是全球化的先知，全球化的啦啦队长。

He really thought it would lead to a better world in all respects.

他真的认为这会在各个方面带来一个更美好的世界。

Towards the end of his life, it’s about two years before he dies, there’s a note of doubt about how globalization unfolded, and what it would mean particularly for the American worker.

在他生命的最后阶段，距离他去世大约两年，人们对全球化如何展开以及全球化对美国工人意味着什么表示怀疑。

07:52 So, you can see him still thinking, and that to me, I had assumed he became crankier and crankier and more and more set in his ways.

所以，你可以看到他仍在思考，对我来说，我以为他变得越来越暴躁，越来越固执己见。

Of course, there’s a phase where he does become that way, especially as he’s in the public eye, and there’s not room for nuance.

当然，在某个阶段，他确实会变成这样，尤其是当他出现在公众视野中时，而且没有任何细微差别的空间。

But to find in the last years of his life him being so reflective, that was absolutely not something Rand could do.

但在他生命的最后几年里，他竟然如此善于反思，这绝对不是兰德能做到的。

I think there’s a thread throughout this conversation where we should actually also say that you’re a historian of ideas.

我认为在这次谈话中有一个线索，我们实际上也应该说你是一位思想史学家。

08:13 How’s that?

怎么样？

I am a historian of ideas, yes.

是的，我是一位思想史学家。

So, we’re talking about today in part about two people who fought for ideas, for an idea, like we’ve mentioned freedom for capitalism.

所以，我们今天谈论的部分是关于两个为思想、为一个思想而奋斗的人，就像我们提到的资本主义自由一样。

08:23 They did it in very different ways.

他们以非常不同的方式做到了这一点。

It’s so interesting to see the impact they both had and how their elucidation explanation of those ideas reverberated throughout society, and how we together as a society figure out what works, the degree to which they have influence on the public, the degree to which they have influence on individual administrations like the Reagan administration, Nixon and so on, and how it might return, fade away, and then come back in the modern times.

看到他们所产生的影响，以及他们对这些想法的阐释如何在整个社会产生反响，以及我们作为一个社会如何共同找出什么是有效的，他们对公众的影响程度，他们对里根政府、尼克松政府等个别政府的影响程度，以及它如何在现代回归、消失，然后卷土重来，这是非常有趣的。

09:07 It’s so interesting if you just see this whole world as a game of ideas where we were pushing and pulling and trying to figure stuff out.

如果你把整个世界看作是一场思想游戏，我们在其中推拉并试图解决问题，那就太有趣了。

A bunch of people got real excited over 100 years ago about communism, and then they try stuff out, and then the implementation broke down, and we keep playing with ideas.

一百多年前，一群人对共产主义感到非常兴奋，然后他们尝试了一些东西，然后实施失败了，我们继续玩弄想法。

So, these are the two greats of playing with ideas.

所以，这是玩创意的两大伟大之处。

I think that’s a thread that just runs through this.

我认为这就是贯穿这一点的一条线索。

Yeah, and of pushing back against that movement towards communism, social democracy.

是的，还有抵制共产主义、社会民主主义运动。

09:37 But one difference that I really should emphasize, Rand is a writer of fiction.

但我真正应该强调的一个区别是，兰德是一位小说家。

She’s a philosopher, but she’s also a writer of fiction.

她是一位哲学家，但她也是一位小说家。

So, she is working almost in the mythic register, much more in the psychological register.

所以，她几乎是在神话领域工作，更多的是在心理领域工作。

She’s creating characters that people identify with and people relate to experiences they’ve had, and that’s one of the reasons she hits so deep.

她创造了人们认同的角色，让人们与他们的经历产生联系，这就是她如此深入的原因之一。

She’s also offering people…

她还为人们提供……

I read all the fan letters to her.

我读了所有给她的粉丝信。

People would say things like, “I read The Fountainhead, and now I’m getting a divorce,” having just these incredible realizations.

人们会说，“我读了《源泉》，现在我要离婚了，”有了这些令人难以置信的认识。

Milton Friedman didn’t get such letters.

米尔顿·弗里德曼没有收到这样的信。

Milton Friedman didn’t get such things, or I’ll meet someone, and they’ll say to me, “Ayn Rand is the reason I went to medical school.” A woman said this to me a few years back, “It never even occurred to me that I could be a doctor until I read Ayn Rand, and I said, “I’m going to go to medical school.” So, she has that really intense impact on people.

米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）没有得到这样的东西，否则我会遇到某人，他们会对我说，“安·兰德（Ayn Rand）是我去医学院的原因。”几年前，一位女士对我说过这样的话：“在读了安·兰德的书之前，我从来没有想过自己可以成为一名医生，然后我说：“我要去医学院。”所以，她对人们有着非常强烈的影响。

10:24 So, she thought of herself as rational.

所以，她认为自己是理性的。

She thought of rationality as what she was doing, but she was actually doing a kind of mythopoetic psychological work as well.

她认为自己正在做的事情是理性的，但实际上她也在做一种神话般的心理工作。

10:55 Whereas Friedman, on the one hand, was much more rational, and there’s a whole set of economic thinking.

而弗里德曼一方面更加理性，而且有一整套经济思维。

He provides a rational framework for understanding the world, and it’s the framework of neoclassical economics.

他为理解世界提供了一个理性的框架，这就是新古典经济学的框架。

At the same time, he does pull on mythologies of the idea of America and the Gilded Age, the frontier mythology, the individual immigrant, the settler mythology.

与此同时，他确实借鉴了美国观念和镀金时代的神话、边疆神话、个人移民、定居者神话。

He pulls on these, but he doesn’t create them, and he’s more kind of playing a tune he already has.

他利用了这些，但他并没有创造它们，他更像是在演奏他已经拥有的曲子。

Whereas I think Rand really does something a little bit deeper in her ability to reach into people’s psyche, and then take that emotional psychological experience, and fuse it to an intellectual world and a political world.

而我认为兰德确实做了一些更深入的事情，她有能力深入人们的心灵，然后将这种情感心理体验融入到知识世界和政治世界中。

11:43 That’s really what makes her so powerful.

这确实是她如此强大的原因。

So, I think she comes back in to relevancy in a different way than Friedman does, because I think in some ways she’s tapped into a more universal human longing for independence and autonomy and self-creation and self-discovery.

所以，我认为她以与弗里德曼不同的方式重新回归现实，因为我认为在某些方面她利用了人类对独立、自主、自我创造和自我发现的更普遍的渴望。

Nevertheless, there’s still pragmatic ideas that are still important today from Milton Friedman, even just on the economics level.

尽管如此，米尔顿·弗里德曼的实用主义思想在今天仍然很重要，即使只是在经济学层面。

12:03 So, let’s dig in.

那么，让我们深入研究一下。

Let me try.

让我试试。

I took some notes.

我做了一些笔记。

Let me try to summarize who Milton Friedman is, and then you can correct me.

让我尝试总结一下米尔顿·弗里德曼是谁，然后你可以纠正我。

So, he is widely considered to be one of the greatest and most influential economists in history, not just the 20th century, I think, ever.

因此，我认为，他被广泛认为是历史上最伟大、最有影响力的经济学家之一，而不仅仅是 20 世纪。

He was an advocate of economic freedom, like we said, and just individual freedom in general.

正如我们所说，他是经济自由以及一般个人自由的倡导者。

He strongly advocated for free market capitalism and limited government intervention in the economy, though you do give…

他强烈主张自由市场资本主义和有限的政府对经济的干预，尽管你确实给予……

12:44 I’ve listened to basically everything you have on the internet.

我基本上听过互联网上的所有内容。

You give some more depth and nuance on his views on this in your books.

您在书中更深入地阐述了他对此的看法。

He led the famed Chicago School of Economics, and he won the Nobel Prize in economics in 1976.

他领导了著名的芝加哥经济学院，并于1976年获得诺贝尔经济学奖。

He greatly influenced economic policies during the Reagan administration and other administrations.

他极大地影响了里根政府和其他政府的经济政策。

He was an influential public intellectual, highly influential, not just among economists.

他是一位有影响力的公共知识分子，不仅在经济学家中具有很高的影响力。

He lived 1912 to 2006.

他生活于 1912 年至 2006 年。

So, that means he lived and worked through some major world events where his ideas were really important, the Great Depression with the New Deal, World War Two with post-war reconstruction, the Rise and Fall of the Bretton Woods Monetary System as we may talk about, the Cold War and all the conflicts involved in that, the tensions around communism and so on, so the fall of the Soviet Union.

因此，这意味着他生活和工作过一些重大的世界事件，他的思想在这些事件中非常重要，包括新政带来的大萧条、战后重建的第二次世界大战、我们可能会谈论的布雷顿森林货币体系的兴衰、冷战和与之相关的所有冲突、围绕共产主义的紧张局势等等，还有苏联的垮台。

13:44 Also, he has some interesting relationships to China’s economic transformation since the 1970s, the stagflation of the 1970s, and I’m sure there’s a lot more.

此外，他与 20 世纪 70 年代以来中国的经济转型、20 世纪 70 年代的滞胀有一些有趣的关系，我相信还有更多。

So, can you maybe continue this thread, and give a big picture overview of the ideas he’s known for?

那么，您能否继续这个话题，并概述一下他著名的想法？

Yeah, sure.

是的，当然。

14:03 That’s a great summary.

这是一个很好的总结。

You learn fast.

你学得很快。

So, let me start with the economics, and then I can transition to how he used those economic ideas to become a real voice in the American conservative movement, in the American political realm.

因此，让我从经济学开始，然后我可以过渡到他如何利用这些经济思想成为美国保守运动和美国政治领域的真正声音。

So, I’ll highlight for ideas or contributions or episodes.

因此，我将重点介绍想法、贡献或情节。

One was his work with Anna Schwartz in revising our understanding of the Great Depression.

其中之一是他与安娜·施瓦茨（Anna Schwartz）合作修正了我们对大萧条的理解。

That’s tightly related to the second, which is the School of Monetarism that he and Schwartz really become founders of.

这与第二个密切相关，即他和施瓦茨真正成为货币主义学派的创始人。

14:40 Then there is the prediction of stagflation and the explanation of that in the 1970s, which really is one of these career-making predictions, and we can dig into that.

然后是 20 世纪 70 年代滞胀的预测和对此的解释，这确实是这些职业生涯预测之一，我们可以深入研究。

Then in terms of technical economics, he’s known for the permanent income hypothesis, which he develops with a group of female collaborators that I can talk about.

然后在技术经济学方面，他以永久收入假说而闻名，这是他与一群女性合作者共同提出的，我可以谈谈。

So, those are four technical pieces end up being really brought together in what becomes the Chicago School of Economics.

因此，这四个技术部分最终被真正汇集到了芝加哥经济学院。

He’s undoubtedly the head and the leader of the Chicago School of Economics.

他无疑是芝加哥经济学院的院长和领导者。

There’s an earlier generation that he learns from.

他向更早的一代人学习。

There’s his generation.

有他这一代人。

15:23 There’s also a Chicago School of Law and Economics that’s really profoundly influential, and then there’ll be a third generation that he’s somewhat distinct from, but that goes on to really shape economics.

还有芝加哥法学院和经济学院，它确实具有深远的影响力，然后会有第三代，他与他有些不同，但它继续真正塑造了经济学。

But let me go back to these four pieces, and let me start with Great Depression.

但让我回到这四篇文章，让我从大萧条开始。

So, Milton Friedman actually lives through the Great Depression.

所以，米尔顿·弗里德曼实际上经历过大萧条。

He’s in college when it hits.

事情发生时他正在上大学。

So, he is in college just 1928 to 1932.

所以，他在 1928 年到 1932 年间才上大学。

He’s aware of the Depression, and he’s deciding, “Should I study mathematics, or should I study economics?” He’s had some good economics teachers, but it’s really the context.

他意识到了大萧条，他正在决定：“我应该学习数学，还是应该学习经济学？”他有一些很好的经济学老师，但这确实是背景。

16:06 It’s looking around at the slow dissolving of economic prosperity.

它正在审视经济繁荣的缓慢消散。

So, he decides to go to Chicago.

于是，他决定去芝加哥。

He decides to study economics.

他决定学习经济学。

What’s really interesting is that the Great Depression is so unexpected.

真正有趣的是，大萧条是如此出乎意料。

It’s unpredicted.

这是不可预测的。

It’s unprecedented, and economists are really struggling to know how to respond to it.

这是前所未有的，经济学家们真的很难知道如何应对。

So, he’s going to arrive at the University of Chicago when the field is struggling to know what to do.

因此，当这个领域正在努力知道该怎么做时，他将来到芝加哥大学。

So, he’s in this really open space where the institutional economics of the 1920s has failed to predict, which was focused on business cycles.

所以，他处于一个真正开放的空间，而 20 年代的制度经济学却无法预测，它的重点是商业周期。

16:44 This is the irony.

这就是讽刺。

Their big thing was charting and understanding business cycles, and then we have the biggest business cycle of all time.

他们最重要的是绘制和理解商业周期，然后我们就有了有史以来最大的商业周期。

They haven’t seen it coming, and they don’t have a good explanation for it.

他们没有预见到它的到来，也没有一个很好的解释。

What he will get at Chicago is the remnants of a monetary understanding of the economy.

他在芝加哥将得到的是对经济的货币理解的残余。

So his teachers, they don’t know exactly what’s going on, but they look first to the banking crisis.

所以他的老师们并不知道到底发生了什么，但他们首先关注的是银行业危机。

They look first to 1933.

他们首先回顾 1933 年。

It’s bank runs failures of maybe it’s up to a third of American banks.

可能多达三分之一的美国银行都因银行挤兑而倒闭。

Thousands of banks are failing per week.

每周有数千家银行倒闭。

So, they’re focused on that.

所以，他们专注于此。

So, that’s the first imprint he will have.

所以，这是他留下的第一个印记。

17:26 The Great Depression has something to do with a banking system.

大萧条与银行体系有关。

The second imprint he will have is that all of his professors are profoundly concerned about the social crisis.

他留下的第二个印记是，他所有的教授都对社会危机深切关注。

They want relief programs.

他们想要救济计划。

They want them now.

他们现在就想要它们。

They want bank regulation and financial reform.

他们想要银行监管和金融改革。

They’re very active.

他们非常活跃。

This is not laissez-faire by any stretch of the imagination.

无论怎么想，这都不是自由放任的。

So, Friedman has that imprinting.

所以，弗里德曼有这种印记。

So, he gets there in ’32, ’36, ’37.

所以，他在 32 年、36 年、37 年到达了那里。

The ideas of John Maynard Keynes from Britain, which has a different explanation, Keynes has a different explanation of the Great Depression, will make landfall in American economics, and be very profoundly influential.

英国约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的思想，有不同的解释，凯恩斯对大萧条有不同的解释，将会登陆美国经济学，影响非常深远。

Most American economists, but Friedman already…

大多数美国经济学家，但弗里德曼已经……

18:10 It’s too late for Friedman.

对于弗里德曼来说已经太晚了。

He already has a different perspective.

他已经有了不同的看法。

So, Keynesianism unfolds.

于是，凯恩斯主义应运而生。

I can say more about that, but it basically leads to more active federal government participation in the economy.

我可以对此说更多，但这基本上会导致联邦政府更积极地参与经济。

What underlies a lot of that, its adaptation in America particularly, is the idea that capitalism has failed.

其中很多内容（尤其是在美国的改编）的根本原因是资本主义已经失败了。

Capitalism has revealed itself to have a profound flaw, and that its cycles of boom and bust creates social instability, chaos.

资本主义已经暴露出自己的一个严重缺陷，它的繁荣和萧条循环造成了社会不稳定和混乱。

It needs to be tamed.

它需要被驯服。

It needs to be regulated.

它需要受到监管。

So, that becomes the baseline of politics in the United States, the understanding of the New Deal, the understanding of the Democratic Party, even to some extent the understanding of the Republican Party.

那么，这就成为美国政治的底线，对新政的理解，对民主党的理解，甚至某种程度上对共和党的理解。

19:01 Friedman never quite sure about that.

弗里德曼对此始终不太确定。

He has a hunch that there’s something else going on, and he does not buy that capitalism has ground to a halt, or the other idea is that capitalism has gone through some phase transition.

他有一种预感，认为还有其他事情正在发生，并且他不认为资本主义已经陷入停滞，或者认为资本主义已经经历了某种相变。

It worked great maybe while we had a frontier.

当我们有边境时，它可能效果很好。

This is a very serious argument that people were making.

这是人们提出的一个非常严肃的论点。

United States used to have a frontier, a place where Europeans hadn’t fully settled.

美国曾经有一个边境，一个欧洲人尚未完全定居的地方。

Of course, they’re pushing out the native tribes.

当然，他们正在赶走土著部落。

That’s another story, but that this frontier is the engine of economic growth, and the frontier is now over.

那是另一个故事了，但这个前沿是经济增长的引擎，而现在这个前沿已经结束了。

It’s closed, and we’re going to stagnate.

它已经关闭了，我们将陷入停滞。

There’s a theory of secular stagnation.

有一个长期停滞理论。

19:40 So, to deal with secular stagnation, we’re just going to have to have a more active state.

因此，为了应对长期停滞，我们必须采取更积极的状态。

So, Friedman is suspicious of all these assumptions, and he has this idea that it’s something to do with money.

所以，弗里德曼对所有这些假设都表示怀疑，他认为这与金钱有关。

Money is somehow important, and so he joins together with Anna Schwartz, who is an economist.

金钱在某种程度上很重要，因此他与经济学家安娜·施瓦茨 (Anna Schwartz) 联手。

She doesn’t at this time hold a PhD.

她目前还没有博士学位。

She’s working for the National Bureau of Economic Research.

她在国家经济研究局工作。

They come together to do this study of money in the U.S. economy.

他们聚集在一起对美国经济中的货币进行研究。

It takes them 12 years to write the book.

他们花了12年时间才写完这本书。

They’re releasing their ideas, and they’re arguing, and Friedman is writing papers, giving talks, saying, “Money’s really important,” and nobody’s really believing him.

他们发表自己的想法，争论不休，而弗里德曼则写论文、发表演讲，说“钱真的很重要”，但没有人真正相信他。

20:21 He’s a crank.

他是个怪人。

He’s at Chicago.

他在芝加哥。

Chicago is a well-known university, but he’s considered a crank.

芝加哥是一所著名的大学，但他被认为是个怪人。

Then in ’63, he and Anna Schwartz published this book, and it’s 800 pages.

然后在 63 年，他和安娜·施瓦茨 (Anna Schwartz) 出版了这本书，共有 800 页。

It’s a reinterpretation of the history of the United States through money, like the central character is money, whether it’s specie, greenback or the U.S. currency.

这是通过货币对美国历史的重新诠释，就像中心人物是货币一样，无论是硬币、美元还是美元。

They have a whole chapter on the Great Depression, and what they’ve literally done, Schwartz has done most of this, they’ve gone…

他们用了一整章的篇幅讲述大萧条，以及他们实际上所做的事情，施瓦茨已经做了其中的大部分，他们已经走了……

Schwartz has gone to banks, and said, “Show me your books.” Then she’s added up column by column, “How much money is in your vault?

施瓦茨去了银行，说：“给我看看你的账本。”然后她一栏一栏地加起来，“你的金库里有多少钱？

How much money is on deposit?

存款有多少钱？

How much money is circulating?”

流通的钱有多少？”

20:59 So, they literally have graphs.

所以，他们确实有图表。

You can see them in the book of how much money has been circulating in the U.S. at various different points in time.

您可以在美国各个不同时间点流通的货币量的书中看到它们。

When they get to the Great Depression, they find the quantity of money available in the economy goes down by a third.

当他们进入大萧条时，他们发现经济中可用的货币数量减少了三分之一。

In some ways, this is completely obvious because so many banks have failed, and we don’t have any type of bank insurance at that point.

在某些方面，这是完全显而易见的，因为很多银行都倒闭了，而我们当时没有任何类型的银行保险。

So if your bank goes under, your savings are there, the money essentially vanishes, and it’s fractional reserve banking.

因此，如果你的银行破产了，你的储蓄就在那里，钱基本上就消失了，这就是部分准备金银行业务。

So, you’ve put in…

所以，你已经投入了……

They can loan up to 90% on their deposits.

他们最多可以贷出存款的 90%。

21:35 So, Friedman and Schwartz present this argument that what really made the Great Depression so bad was this drop in the amount of money, the 30% drop in the money, they called the Great Contraction.

因此，弗里德曼和施瓦茨提出了这样的论点：真正让大萧条变得如此糟糕的是货币数量的下降，即货币数量下降 30%，他们称之为大收缩。

Then they go further, and they say, “Well, how did this happen and why?” They pinpoint the Federal Reserve, which is a fairly new institution at that time.

然后他们更进一步，他们说：“好吧，这是怎么发生的？为什么？”他们指出了美联储，这在当时是一个相当新的机构。

They say, “What did the Federal Reserve do?

他们说：“美联储做了什么？

The lender of last resort, what did it do in the face of what they’re depicting as a massive, unprecedented liquidity crisis?” They find it’s not really doing much.

作为最后贷款人，面对他们所描述的大规模、前所未有的流动性危机，它做了什么？”他们发现这并没有起到多大作用。

22:09 They really dig into the details, and they find that the Federal Reserve has gone through a sort of personnel change.

他们真正深入细节，发现美联储经历了某种人事变动。

Some of the key leaders in the 1920s, Benjamin Strong is one of them.

20 年代的一些关键领导人，本杰明·斯特朗就是其中之一。

He’s now deceased, and the dominance of the New York Federal Reserve, which in their telling is global, it’s interconnected.

他现在已经去世了，而纽约联储的主导地位——按照他们的说法是全球性的——是相互关联的。

It’s seen a lot of financial things come and go.

我们见证了很多金融事物的来来去去。

They believe that the New York Fed had the understanding to recognize this is a liquidity crisis.

他们认为纽约联储有能力认识到这是一场流动性危机。

We should be very generous.

我们应该非常慷慨。

We should support all the banks.

我们应该支持所有银行。

Their influence has diminished for the kind of banks that are more…

对于那些更……的银行来说，他们的影响力已经减弱。

They don’t say the Rubes and the Hicks, but it basically is.

他们没有说鲁布人和希克斯人，但基本上就是这样。

22:49 It’s like, “The people in charge don’t know what they’re doing.” So, the Fed pursues this policy of masterly inactivity.

就像“负责人不知道他们在做什么”。因此，美联储奉行这种巧妙的不作为政策。

They don’t see it as a problem.

他们不认为这是一个问题。

They don’t do much.

他们没有做太多事情。

There’s an enormous liquidity crisis, and that’s their version of what the Great Depression is all about, that it’s a financial system meltdown.

存在着巨大的流动性危机，这就是他们对大萧条的理解，即金融体系的崩溃。

It’s a liquidity crisis, and that it in some ways, well, in many ways, they argue very strong counterfactual argument.

这是一场流动性危机，在某些方面，嗯，在很多方面，他们提出了非常有力的反事实论点。

The Federal Reserve could have prevented it, and it did not.

美联储本可以阻止它，但它没有。

So, it becomes then an institutional failure and a political failure, not a failure of capitalism as a system.

因此，它变成了制度失败和政治失败，而不是资本主义作为一个体系的失败。

So, this book comes out.

于是，这本书就出来了。

It’s a blockbuster.

这是一鸣惊人。

23:34 Even those economists who’ve been like, “Friedman is a crank.

即使是那些曾经说过“弗里德曼是个怪人”的经济学家。

I don’t buy it,” are like, “Friedman and Schwartz are onto something.

我不相信，”他们说，“弗里德曼和施瓦茨的观点是正确的。

Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz are onto something.” So, that really changes the game.

米尔顿·弗里德曼和安娜·施瓦茨正在做一些事情。”所以，这确实改变了游戏规则。

This is also one of his most influential contributions, because Friedman and Schwartz becomes the playbook for the Federal Reserve.

这也是他最有影响力的贡献之一，因为弗里德曼和施瓦茨成为美联储的剧本。

We have lived through this, the financial crisis.

我们经历过这次金融危机。

The Federal Reserve is ready to loan.

美联储已做好贷款准备。

Covid, the Federal Reserve does all kinds of new things, because no Federal Reserve chair wants to be in Friedman-Schwartz 2.0 that somebody writes, where they’re the bad guy who let the economy meltdown.

新冠疫情期间，美联储做了各种各样的新事情，因为没有一个美联储主席愿意陷入有人写的弗里德曼-施瓦茨 2.0 时代，他们是让经济崩溃的坏人。

24:16 So, the specifics of what they say to do have obviously evolved as the system has changed, but this is a playbook for how to deal with economic crisis.

因此，他们所说的具体做法显然随着体系的变化而变化，但这是一本如何应对经济危机的手册。

It’s Friedman and Schwartz.

这是弗里德曼和施瓦茨。

So, it’s absolutely fundamental, and that is really going to be the place he makes his mark.

所以，这绝对是基础，这确实是他留下印记的地方。

There’s a lot of things to say here.

这里有很多话要说。

24:34 So first, the book we’re talking about is a monetary history of the United States, in part for which Milton Friedman won the Nobel Prize.

首先，我们谈论的这本书是一部美国的货币史，米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）因此获得了诺贝尔奖。

You’ve also mentioned the influence of the Great Depression, if you could even just rewind to that.

您还提到了大萧条的影响，如果您可以回顾一下的话。

Yes.

是的。

So, he went to, I guess, college in Rutgers.

所以，我猜他去了罗格斯大学。

That’s right.

没错。

He was mathematical proclivities, so he was wanted to be a mathematician.

他有数学天赋，所以他想成为一名数学家。

24:51 So, it’s a cool crossroads.

所以，这是一个很酷的十字路口。

It’s interesting how the right time, the right person arrives.

有趣的是，对的时间、对的人如何到来。

So, you described this really well, that he had this choice to be a mathematician or an economist.

所以，你描述得很好，他可以选择成为一名数学家或经济学家。

The economist is the University of Chicago.

经济学家是芝加哥大学。

Mathematician is Brown University, whichever, and then this is also the beginnings, as you’ve described, of mathematical economics.

数学家是布朗大学，无论哪一个，然后，正如您所描述的，这也是数理经济学的开端。

So, he fits in nicely into this using…

所以，他非常适合使用……

I think you said the number of equations started going up per paper-

我想你说过每篇论文的方程数量开始增加-

Yes.

是的。

…

……

25:36 which is a really nice way to put it, so really the right person at the right time to try to solve this puzzle of the economy melting down.

这是一个非常好的说法，因此确实是在正确的时间尝试解决经济崩溃这一难题的正确人选。

It’s so interesting, just one human.

太有趣了，只有一个人。

It’s just from just zooming in on a single human making a decision about life.

这只是放大一个人对生活做出的决定。

It’s hard to know when you’re in it that the world is melting down from an economics perspective, and that I could do something about this to figure out what it is.

从经济学的角度来看，当你身处其中时，你很难知道世界正在崩溃，而我可以对此做点什么来弄清楚它是什么。

Also, I’m going to reject the mainstream narrative about why this happened.

另外，我将拒绝接受关于为什么会发生这种情况的主流叙述。

So, the other piece of the puzzle, when he goes to Rutgers, he thinks he’ll be an actuary.

所以，另一个难题是，当他去罗格斯大学时，他认为自己会成为一名精算师。

26:11 So, Milton Friedman’s family, his parents are immigrants, Jewish immigrants from Eastern Europe.

所以，米尔顿·弗里德曼的家人，他的父母都是移民，来自东欧的犹太移民。

They’re pretty atypical and that they don’t stay in New York, and they moved to Rahway, New Jersey.

他们非常不典型，他们不住在纽约，而是搬到了新泽西州的拉威。

They put together a fairly middle-class life as kind of…

他们过着相当中产阶级的生活，就像……

They have a shop.

他们有一家商店。

They do some wholesale buying and selling, and then his father dies when he’s 16.

他们从事一些批发买卖，然后他的父亲在他 16 岁时去世了。

His life becomes more precarious, but it’s never as precarious as he makes it up be.

他的生活变得更加不稳定，但从来没有他想象的那么不稳定。

He’s got three older sisters.

他有三个姐姐。

They earn a good living.

他们过着不错的生活。

26:45 Incidentally, they all have better grades in high school than he does, but he’s the one that goes to college.

顺便说一句，他们在高中的成绩都比他好，但他是上大学的那个。

But it’s actually really important that he loses his father figure, because he’s then looking for other father figures, and he meets two at Rutgers.

但实际上，他失去父亲的形象非常重要，因为他随后正在寻找其他父亲的形象，他在罗格斯大学遇到了两个。

One is Arthur Burns, who will go on to have a huge influence in his career.

其中之一是阿瑟·伯恩斯（Arthur Burns），他将在他的职业生涯中产生巨大的影响。

No relation to me, by the way.

顺便说一句，与我无关。

But, Arthur Burns is like him, a fellow Jewish immigrant boy on the make.

但是，阿瑟·伯恩斯和他一样，都是一个正在成长的犹太移民男孩。

He’s older, and he’s making a career as an economist.

他年纪大了，正在以经济学家为职业。

Then there’s Homer Jones who has gone to the University of Chicago, and is studying with Frank Knight at Chicago, and says, “You have to go to Chicago.”

然后是霍默·琼斯（Homer Jones），他去了芝加哥大学，正在芝加哥跟随弗兰克·奈特（Frank Knight）学习，他说：“你必须去芝加哥。”

27:25 So, he has these two mentors.

所以，他有这两位导师。

Burns in particular suggests, ” Oh, I could be an economist.

伯恩斯特别建议：“哦，我可以成为一名经济学家。

That could be my career path.” The idea to be an actuary for an insurance company, I’m not sure where he got that idea, but he just thought that was something he could do as someone who was good at math.

这可能是我的职业道路。”成为一家保险公司精算师的想法，我不确定他从哪里得到这个想法，但他只是认为这是他作为一个擅长数学的人可以做的事情。

So, the college really opens the perspective, opens the door.

所以，学院真正打开了视野，打开了大门。

Then I think it’s really key that, again, he doesn’t get an explanation that he buys for the Great Depression.

然后我认为真正关键的是，他没有得到他为大萧条买单的解释。

So then he’s looking for one.

所以他正在寻找一个。

The math part is really interesting aspect of his career.

数学部分是他职业生涯中非常有趣的方面。

Now, he actually comes to Chicago to study with the mathematical economist, Henry Schultz, but he gets there, and he thinks Schultz is kind of dumb.

现在，他实际上来到芝加哥跟随数理经济学家亨利·舒尔茨学习，但他到了那里，他认为舒尔茨有点傻。

He really does.

他确实这么做了。

He’s incredibly arrogant, and he just thinks, “This guy’s not that smart,” and it seems that…

他非常傲慢，他只是想，“这家伙没那么聪明”，而且似乎……

I mean, Schultz did some really important work in the early stages of mathematical economics, but a lot of the oral histories about him are like, “Yeah, he wasn’t that bright.” So, Friedman’s may be onto something.

我的意思是，舒尔茨在数理经济学的早期阶段做了一些非常重要的工作，但很多关于他的口述历史都是这样的，“是的，他没那么聪明。”所以，弗里德曼的观点可能是有道理的。

So, he falls into the set of students who are really enthralled with this other professor, Frank Knight.

因此，他属于真正着迷于另一位教授弗兰克·奈特的学生。

Frank Knight is against math and economics.

弗兰克·奈特反对数学和经济学。

Frank Knight is a neoclassical economist, but not a mathematical economist.

弗兰克·奈特是一位新古典经济学家，但不是一位数理经济学家。

28:45 He’s an old school liberal.

他是一位老派自由主义者。

He’s really concerned about liberal democracy, economic liberalism.

他真正关心自由民主、经济自由主义。

Friedman is very deeply influenced by Knight.

弗里德曼深受奈特的影响。

He continues to pursue mathematical economics, so he’ll go…

他继续追求数理经济学，所以他会去……

For part of his graduate career, he goes to Columbia University where he actually gets his PhD from.

在他研究生生涯的一部分中，他去了哥伦比亚大学，并在那里获得了博士学位。

He works with a mathematical economist there.

他在那里与一位数学经济学家一起工作。

So, he comes out trained in what will eventually be econometrics, statistics and economics.

因此，他最终接受了计量经济学、统计学和经济学方面的培训。

His early publications are in statistics, but it’s not really where his intellectual heart and soul are.

他早期的出版物是统计数据，但这并不是他真正的知识核心和灵魂所在。

Eventually, he will turn very profoundly against mathematics and economics, and become a heterodox strain throughout 20th century economics.

最终，他将彻底反对数学和经济学，并成为整个 20 世纪经济学的异端派。

29:29 It says, ” Simple models are better.

它说：“简单的模型更好。

We need to work off empirical data, not construct elegant models,” and becomes really counter-cultural within economics in that way.

我们需要研究经验数据，而不是构建优雅的模型”，这样在经济学中就变得真正反文化了。

The test of a good model is it should actually predict stuff that happened.

检验一个好模型的标准是它应该真正预测发生的事情。

It should predict stuff that happened.

它应该预测发生的事情。

29:49 It should tie back to what’s going on.

它应该与正在发生的事情联系起来。

I’m wondering which direction to go.

我在想该往哪个方向走。

29:53 So first, actually, if we could zoom out on the different schools of economics.

所以首先，实际上，我们是否可以缩小不同经济学流派的范围。

Yeah.

是的。

Just the basics.

只是基础知识。

29:59 You mentioned Neoclassical.

你提到了新古典主义。

We mentioned Keynesian economics.

我们提到了凯恩斯主义经济学。

We mentioned…

我们提到过……

What else did we mention?

我们还提到了什么？

Well, the Chicago School of Economics.

嗯，芝加哥经济学院。

Right.

正确的。

Where does Austrian economics fit into that pile, and Marxian economics?

奥地利经济学和马克思主义经济学属于哪一类？

30:08 Can we just even just linger and try to redefine Keynesian economics and Chicago School of Economics and Neoclassical economics and Austrian economics, because there’s some overlap and contention?

我们是否可以只是徘徊并尝试重新定义凯恩斯主义经济学和芝加哥经济学院以及新古典经济学和奥地利学派经济学，因为存在一些重叠和争论？

For sure.

一定。

30:27 So, schools of economics, so we could start with classical economics.

所以，经济学流派，我们可以从古典经济学开始。

Classical economics, we could think of Adam Smith is your classic classical economist, the founder of the discipline.

古典经济学，我们可以认为亚当·斯密是古典经济学的经典学科的创始人。

Classical economics does not really use math, is very close to political economy.

古典经济学并不真正使用数学，与政治经济学非常接近。

It’s concerned with, as Smith puts it, the wealth of nations.

正如史密斯所说，它关系到国家的财富。

It’s concerned to some degree with distribution.

它在某种程度上与分布有关。

It’s concerned to some degree with what makes a good political system.

它在某种程度上涉及什么是良好的政治制度。

What tends to really define classical economics when you’re looking from a great distance is what’s called the labor theory of value.

当你从远处看时，真正定义古典经济学的往往是所谓的劳动价值论。

31:08 So, where does value come from in classical economics?

那么，古典经济学中的价值从何而来？

It comes from the labor that a person puts into it.

它来自于一个人投入的劳动。

So, maybe this in some ways comes from Locke’s notion of property that you mingle your labor with the natural world.

所以，也许这在某种程度上来自洛克的财产概念，即你将你的劳动与自然世界混合在一起。

We can say labor theory of value.

我们可以说劳动价值论。

So, classical economics concerned with…

所以，古典经济学关注的是……

Smith is arguing against mercantilism for more free trade, often goes by the name of political economy to show it’s more capacious.

史密斯反对重商主义以实现更多的自由贸易，他经常以政治经济学的名义来表明它更加广阔。

It’s thinking of politics and economics.

这是对政治和经济的思考。

You can still read these books today.

今天你仍然可以阅读这些书。

The sentences are long.

句子很长。

The words are different, but you can still follow along.

说法不同，但你仍然可以遵循。

31:49 So, the real big transition from classical economics and political economy to economics as it’s understood today, comes with the marginal revolution.

因此，从古典经济学和政治经济学到今天所理解的经济学的真正重大转变伴随着边际革命。

The marginal revolution is a scientific revolution that happens in a couple of different places simultaneously.

边际革命是同时发生在几个不同地方的科学革命。

This is one of these things that you see in the history of science.

这是你在科学史上看到的事情之一。

There’ll be some breakthrough like, “Darwin has a breakthrough,” but somebody else has sort of the same breakthrough at the same time, totally differently.

会有一些突破，比如“达尔文有一个突破”，但其他人同时也有同样的突破，但完全不同。

So, there’s a version of marginalism that’s continental.

因此，存在一种大陆性的边缘主义版本。

There’s a version in the German-speaking lands, in the French-speaking lands and in Britain.

德语区、法语区和英国都有一个版本。

They all come together, and the shift is in the theory of value.

它们全部聚集在一起，转变在于价值理论。

So, the theory of value in marginalism is on the margin.

因此，边际主义的价值论处于边缘状态。

32:37 So, say you have one apple, and you want a second one.

所以，假设你有一个苹果，你想要第二个。

How much is going from one apple to two apple worth for you?

从一个苹果到两个苹果对你来说值多少钱？

Probably quite a bit.

可能相当多。

If you had 10 apples, maybe going to 11 apples doesn’t matter that much.

如果你有 10 个苹果，也许去 11 个苹果并不那么重要。

The marginal value is less.

边际价值较小。

So, what marginalism does though, most importantly, is it opens the door to math and economics, because it means you can graph this now.

所以，边际主义最重要的是，它打开了数学和经济学的大门，因为这意味着你现在可以用图表来表示。

You can depict this relationship graphically.

您可以用图形方式描述这种关系。

There’s some really interesting work in the history of economics that shows a lot of the people who developed marginalism were looking to physics as a model, Physics, the queen of the sciences.

经济学史上有一些非常有趣的著作表明，许多发展边际主义的人都将物理学视为模型，物理学是科学女王。

33:22 So, they were thinking…

于是，他们就在想……

They imported terms from the natural world to describe the social world through the lens of economics terms like equilibrium.

他们从自然界引入术语，通过均衡等经济学术语来描述社会世界。

So, the idea being that if you looked at a market, a market would reach equilibrium when everybody has bought and sold all that they want, or the price will settle at an equilibrium price when it’s really the demand and supply are matching up.

因此，如果你观察一个市场，当每个人都购买和出售他们想要的所有东西时，市场就会达到均衡，或者当需求和供给真正匹配时，价格就会以均衡价格结算。

Some of these ideas are things we would pick up at a microeconomics class.

其中一些想法是我们在微观经济学课上学到的。

Oh yes, this is still out there.

哦，是的，这仍然存在。

33:55 This is the basic foundation of microeconomics, marginal analysis, and so-

这是微观经济学、边际分析等的基础

34:00 …

……

of microeconomics, marginal analysis.

微观经济学，边际分析。

And so, in the German-speaking intellectual tradition, this is the root of Austrian economics and people picking up the marginal revolution in the German-speaking lands are opposed to the historicists who are thinking in a more evolutionary way about how societies grow and change and they have a vision of economic ideas as applying differently to different types of social arrangements.

因此，在德语区的知识传统中，这是奥派经济学的根源，在德语区进行边际革命的人们反对历史决定论者，历史决定论者以一种更加进化的方式思考社会如何成长和变化，他们对经济思想有不同的看法，认为它们可以不同地应用于不同类型的社会安排。

Where the marginalists, remember, inspired by physics and this is a set of natural laws that applies anywhere to any human society.

边缘主义者请记住，受到物理学的启发，这是一套适用于任何人类社会的自然法则。

So, that’s his first really big fissure that we’ll see again and again.

所以，这是他的第一个真正的大裂痕，我们会一次又一次地看到。

Are you historically minded?

你有历史头脑吗？

Do certain traits of economic life in here adhere and become expressed in certain types of societies or are there universal economic laws that flow through any type of society?

这里的经济生活的某些特征是否在某些类型的社会中坚持并表现出来，或者是否存在流经任何类型的社会的普遍经济规律？

35:03 So, that’s a juncture, a break and so marginalism …

所以，这是一个转折点、一个突破，也是边缘主义……

First, people start using, really, geometry to graph things but marginalism is also opening up to the possibility of calculus and the possibility of creating models.

首先，人们开始真正使用几何来绘制事物，但边际主义也开启了微积分的可能性和创建模型的可能性。

But at that point in time, late 19th century, a model is something like a physicist does.

但在 19 世纪末的那个时间点，模型就像物理学家所做的那样。

Think of an inclined plane and how fast does the ball roll from one to the other, it’s a physical representation of the world and eventually economists will start to create mathematical representations of the world but we’re not quite there yet.

想象一个斜面以及球从一个平面滚动到另一个平面的速度有多快，这是世界的物理表示，最终经济学家将开始创建世界的数学表示，但我们还没有完全实现。

So, we’re late 19th century and we have this fissure, we have this introduction of marginal analysis that marks the juncture from classical economics to economics.

所以，我们已经到了 19 世纪末，我们出现了这条裂痕，我们引入了边际分析，标志着从古典经济学到经济学的转折点。

So, let’s say now we have economics but we still have this fissure between historical thinking and let’s call it natural law thinking, that’s not quite right, but physical laws versus contingency.

所以，假设现在我们有了经济学，但我们在历史思维和我们称之为自然法思维（这不太正确）和物理定律与偶然性之间仍然存在裂痕。

And then, in the United States, this ends up mapping onto debates about capitalism and so more historically minded economists tend to be interested in the progressive movement which is invested in taming and regulating industrial capitalism and changing its excesses, factory safety laws, wage laws, working conditions laws.

然后，在美国，这最终引发了关于资本主义的辩论，因此更具历史意识的经济学家往往对进步运动感兴趣，该运动致力于驯服和规范工业资本主义并改变其过度行为、工厂安全法、工资法、工作条件法。

Yet, in general, American economists all use marginal analysis just in different ways.

然而，总的来说，美国经济学家都以不同的方式使用边际分析。

The ones who are more drawn to marginal analysis become known as neoclassical economists.

那些更喜欢边际分析的人被称为新古典经济学家。

They’re neoclassical, the neo is because they’re using marginal analysis, the classical is because they don’t think we need to change the way the economy operates or the government operates, they’re not progressive.

他们是新古典主义的，新古典主义是因为他们使用边际分析，古典主义是因为他们认为我们不需要改变经济运作或政府运作的方式，他们不是进步的。

Whereas the progressives are saying things like we need to use social control.

而进步人士却在说我们需要使用社会控制之类的话。

The state and the people, collectively and democratically, need to control the way economics unfolds and make sure things are fair and equal.

国家和人民需要集体和民主地控制经济发展的方式，并确保一切公平和平等。

37:06 So, that school of thought becomes known as institutional economics in the United States by the 20th century.

因此，到 20 世纪，这一学派在美国被称为制度经济学。

So, it’s part of the progressive movement late 19th century, into the 20th century, it really becomes institutional economics and it’s quite dominant and the neoclassical economists are still there but they’re very much a minority.

所以，它是 19 世纪末进步运动的一部分，进入 20 世纪，它真正成为制度经济学，并且占据主导地位，新古典经济学家仍然存在，但他们在很大程度上是少数。

And Frank Knight, Milton Friedman’s teacher, is one of the minority neoclassical economists and the institutionalists are much more progressive still.

米尔顿·弗里德曼的老师弗兰克·奈特是少数新古典经济学家之一，而制度主义者则更加进步。

Is it fair to say that the neoclassical folks and even the classical folks versus the institutional economics folks, they have a disagreement about how much government intervention that should be in the economy?

可以公平地说，新古典主义人士，甚至古典经济学人士与制度经济学人士相比，他们对于政府应该对经济进行多少干预存在分歧吗？

37:38 So, neoclassical is less intervention and then an institutional economists, the progressive folks is more intervention?

那么，新古典主义是少干预，然后制度经济学家、进步派是多干预？

Yes, yes, exactly right.

是的，是的，完全正确。

37:58 So, this is a situation in the 1920s but the other piece I should mention is that first generation of progressive economists were very radical, they were closely allied with the socialist movement, with labor radicalism and many of them lost their jobs at universities.

所以，这是 20 年代的情况，但我应该提到的另一件事是，第一代进步经济学家非常激进，他们与社会主义运动、劳工激进主义密切相关，他们中的许多人在大学失去了工作。

This connects to the dawn of academic freedom, this is before academic freedom and they were chastened, they became much more mainstream.

这与学术自由的黎明有关，这是在学术自由之前，他们受到了惩罚，变得更加主流。

By the time we get to the 1920s, we don’t really have radical critiques of society coming from economists, much smaller profession, much less important than it is today and fairly peaceful because the 1920s are a fairly peaceful decade in the United States.

当我们进入 20 年代时，我们并没有真正收到来自经济学家的对社会的激进批评，他们的职业规模要小得多，比今天重要得多，而且相当和平，因为 20 年代在美国是一个相当和平的十年。

38:47 So, this is a situation when the Great Depression hits and, as I mentioned before, the most important institutional economist is Wesley Mitchell and he has said …

所以，这是大萧条来袭时的情况，正如我之前提到的，最重要的制度经济学家是韦斯利·米切尔，他说过……

He’s written a whole book on business cycles.

他写了一本关于商业周期的书。

He doesn’t see this business cycle coming and it hits and he doesn’t have a good explanation for it.

他没有预见到这个商业周期的到来，并且它来袭，但他对此没有一个很好的解释。

Now, perhaps the preeminent neoclassical economist was Irving Fisher.

现在，杰出的新古典主义经济学家也许是欧文·费舍尔。

Now, Irving Fisher is big into the stock market and Irving Fisher says sometime in late summer 1929 stocks are going ever higher and will continue to go ever higher forever.

现在，欧文·费舍尔 (Irving Fisher) 大举进军股市，欧文·费舍尔 (Irving Fisher) 表示，在 1929 年夏末的某个时候，股票价格会越来越高，并将永远继续走高。

And so, he loses his reputation after the stock market crash.

因此，他在股市崩盘后失去了声誉。

So, Milton Friedman is stepping into a field in which the greats have been discredited and there’s an enormous economic crisis all around.

因此，米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）正在踏入一个伟大人物都名誉扫地、而且到处都存在巨大经济危机的领域。

And everybody’s struggling to figure out why the crisis happened, right?

每个人都在努力弄清楚危机发生的原因，对吧？

Yes.

是的。

39:42 And the other thing he’s stepping into is a world where, in the United States, there’s a great deal of anger at capitalism, at the system, unemployed people on the street in Europe, there’s rising fascist movements, in Asia there’s rising fascist movements.

他进入的另一件事是，在美国，人们对资本主义、体制、欧洲街头的失业者、法西斯运动不断抬头、亚洲法西斯运动不断抬头感到愤怒。

And so, everyone’s very concerned about this and Friedman is seeing a lot of this through the lens of Frank Knight who feels like we are maybe reaching the end of what he calls liberalism, he calls himself an old-fashioned liberalism.

因此，每个人都非常关心这一点，弗里德曼通过弗兰克·奈特的视角看到了很多这样的事情，他觉得我们可能已经到达了他所谓的自由主义的终结，他称自己是老式的自由主义。

We’re reaching the end of representative Democratic government because representative Democratic government cannot solve these social problems.

我们正面临代议制民主党政府的终结，因为代议制民主党政府无法解决这些社会问题。

And capitalism as it has developed, Knight is very pro-capitalist but he says it’s generating inequality and this is putting too many strains on the system.

随着资本主义的发展，奈特非常支持资本主义，但他说这正在造成不平等，这给体系带来了太多压力。

40:31 So, Knight will become one of the people who helps Friedman think how do I develop a new theory of capitalism that works in an era of mass democracy where people can vote and people can express at the ballot box their unhappiness with what’s happening economically.

因此，奈特将成为帮助弗里德曼思考如何发展一种新的资本主义理论的人之一，该理论适用于大众民主时代，人们可以投票，人们可以在投票箱表达他们对经济状况的不满。

So, this larger movement will generate, of which F.A.

所以，这个更大的运动将会产生，其中F.A.

Hayek is a part, Friedman is a part that becomes the very early stirrings of trying to think about a new liberalism which will eventually be called neoliberalism.

哈耶克和弗里德曼都是试图思考新自由主义（最终将被称为新自由主义）的早期煽动者。

Okay.

好的。

41:05 So, if we can just linger on the definitions of things.

所以，如果我们能停留在事物的定义上。

So, we mentioned what neoclassical is and the institutional economics is, what’s Keynesian economics?

那么，我们提到了什么是新古典主义，什么是制度经济学，什么是凯恩斯主义经济学？

And the Chicago School of Economics, I guess, is a branch of neoclassical that’s a little bit more empirical versus maybe model-based and Keynesian is very model heavy, more intervention of government.

我想，芝加哥经济学院是新古典主义的一个分支，它更注重实证，而不是基于模型，凯恩斯主义的模型非常重，政府干预更多。

So, the real battle is Keynesian versus everybody else.

因此，真正的战斗是凯恩斯主义与其他人的斗争。

That is what eventually comes to pass in the United States and in the overall developed profession of economics.

这就是美国以及整个发达的经济学界最终会发生的事情。

41:36 The other piece of the puzzle here is the introduction of mathematics and it’s been around the edges but it will pick up speed.

这里的另一个难题是数学的引入，它一直处于边缘，但它会加快速度。

In the 1930s, the Econometrics Society is founded, they start publishing, people start using more statistical and mathematical tools to think about economics and they’re given a boost inadvertently by the rise of Keynesian economics.

20世纪30年代，计量经济学会成立，他们开始出版，人们开始使用更多的统计和数学工具来思考经济学，凯恩斯主义经济学的兴起无意中给了他们提振。

So, Keynes is trained in the neoclassical tradition, he’s an absolutely fascinating figure, he’s been there in the peace negotiations at Versailles, he basically calls World War II.

所以，凯恩斯受过新古典主义传统的训练，他是一个绝对迷人的人物，他参加了凡尔赛和平谈判，他基本上称之为第二次世界大战。

He’s like, “Hey, we’re going to have another war here caused by Germany because this peace treaty has been done in such a vindictive way and people have made such bad decisions.” He’s there, he sees it happening.

他说，“嘿，我们将在这里爆发另一场由德国引发的战争，因为这项和平条约是以一种报复性的方式达成的，人们做出了如此糟糕的决定。”他就在那里，他看到了这一切的发生。

42:32 And so, when the Great Depression unfolds, he basically comes up with a new theory for explaining what’s going on and the previous neoclassical understanding as things go up and things go down and, when they go down, there’s a natural mechanism to bring them back up.

因此，当大萧条展开时，他基本上提出了一种新的理论来解释正在发生的事情以及之前的新古典主义对事物上升和下降的理解，当事物下降时，有一种自然的机制将它们拉回来。

So, when the economy’s going down, prices are going down, wages are going down, everybody’s losing money but eventually firms are going to realize, hey, I can hire people cheap, hey, I can buy stuff cheap, I don’t have a lot of competition maybe I should get in the game here and then others will start to get in and then you regenerate prosperity in that way.

所以，当经济衰退时，物价下降，工资下降，每个人都在赔钱，但最终公司会意识到，嘿，我可以便宜地雇人，嘿，我可以便宜地买东西，我没有太多竞争，也许我应该加入这里的游戏，然后其他人会开始加入，然后你就会以这种方式重获繁荣。

And so, Keynes says, “Sure, that’s one theory but something different is happening right now.

因此，凯恩斯说：“当然，这是一种理论，但现在正在发生一些不同的事情。

Part of why it’s happening is because we have …

发生这种情况的部分原因是我们……

The working class is more empowered now, they’re not simply going to just take low wages and ride them down to the floor, we might not hit the floor.”

工人阶级现在的权力更大了，他们不会简单地接受低工资，然后把他们压到地板上，我们可能也不会摔到地板上。”

43:28 But also he says people might become too anxious to spend, they might not want to invest.

但他也表示，人们可能会变得太急于花钱，他们可能不想投资。

And Keynes has these discussions of animal spirits, he’s still enough of a political economist to think, not just in terms of human rationality, but what are some other things going on in human beings.

凯恩斯对动物精神有这些讨论，他仍然是一位足够的政治经济学家，不仅可以思考人类的理性，还可以思考人类身上正在发生的其他事情。

And people might decide to sit on their money, they might not invest it and so what happens then is you could get stuck in a bad equilibrium.

人们可能会决定持有自己的钱，他们可能不会投资，所以接下来发生的事情可能会陷入不良均衡。

So, in the neoclassical model of equilibrium, it restarts and resets itself and he says, “No, we could get stuck here, we get stuck in the Depression.

因此，在新古典均衡模型中，它会重新启动并重置自己，他说：“不，我们可能会陷入困境，我们会陷入大萧条。

And in that case, what has to happen?” He says, “The government stimulates investment and the government itself invests.” And then he argues that, this is a student of his, Richard Kahn says, “As the government invests a dollar, it has a multiplier effect.

既然如此，该怎么办呢？”他说，“政府刺激投资，政府本身也投资。”然后他辩称，这是他的学生，理查德·卡恩说，“当政府投资一美元时，它会产生乘数效应。

The dollar spent by the government ramifies out throughout the economy.”

政府花费的美元会影响到整个经济。”

44:26 So, it takes the government and puts it in the center as opposed to, say, the banking system or the financial system which would be the more Friedman analysis.

因此，它将政府置于中心地位，而不是银行体系或金融体系，后者更像是弗里德曼的分析。

And for many economists of Friedman’s generation, and he’s a weird generation because, the generation that becomes dominant, it’s just four years older, the men who become Keynesian economics but that four years is really important because they come in to grad school in economics and they get exposed to the new ideas of John Maynard Keynes and they …

对于弗里德曼这一代的许多经济学家来说，他是奇怪的一代，因为成为主导的一代人只比他们年长四岁，成为凯恩斯主义经济学的人，但这四年非常重要，因为他们进入经济学研究生院，接触到约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯的新思想，他们……

I think it’s Paul Samuelson calls it, it was like a South Sea virus that attacked, all of the younger economists immediately succumbed and no one under 50 ever got the disease because their thinking is already set.

我想这是保罗·萨缪尔森（Paul Samuelson）所说的，就像南海病毒袭击一样，所有年轻的经济学家立即屈服，50岁以下的人没有人患上这种疾病，因为他们的想法已经定型了。

And so, Keynesianism, Keynes himself is very suspicious of math and economics and he and Friedman is fascinating.

所以，凯恩斯主义，凯恩斯本人对数学和经济学非常怀疑，他和弗里德曼很迷人。

45:20 One of the first books by Jan Tinbergen, a Dutch economist, to use math and economics use huge volumes.

荷兰经济学家扬·丁伯根 (Jan Tinbergen) 最早使用数学和经济学的书籍之一使用了大量的内容。

Volume one, Keynes pans it.

第一卷，凯恩斯平移。

Volume two, Friedman pans it.

第二卷，弗里德曼平移了它。

So, they’re in the same page but what happens is, as Keynesianism arrives in the United States, Franklin Roosevelt is not really a Keynesian, he’s an accidental or experimental Keynesian and there’s a bunch of different ideas in the United States that are very similar to Keynesianism.

所以，他们在同一页上，但发生的事情是，当凯恩斯主义到达美国时，富兰克林·罗斯福并不是真正的凯恩斯主义者，他是一个偶然的或实验性的凯恩斯主义者，而美国有很多与凯恩斯主义非常相似的不同想法。

They’re not theorized but there are similar ideas that the government has to do something.

它们没有理论化，但也有类似的想法，认为政府必须采取行动。

So, this all comes together and American economists realize that you can construct models in the Keynesian perspective and, if you can use numbers in these models, you can go to Washington, D.C. with numbers and you seem like you have a lot more authority and so math becomes really twinned into Keynesian economics.

所以，这一切结合在一起，美国经济学家意识到，你可以从凯恩斯主义的角度构建模型，如果你可以在这些模型中使用数字，你可以带着数字去华盛顿特区，你看起来拥有更多的权威，所以数学真的与凯恩斯主义经济学紧密相连。

So, the numbers are used as a symbol of expertise.

因此，数字被用作专业知识的象征。

46:24 We really know what the hell is going on because we have some numbers, right?

我们真的知道到底发生了什么，因为我们有一些数字，对吧？

Right.

正确的。

46:32 And we can create a model and so we can say, okay, in the model, the interest rate is here and taxes are here so let’s play with government spending.

我们可以创建一个模型，所以我们可以说，好吧，在模型中，利率在这里，税收在这里，所以让我们来考虑政府支出。

Let’s make it up, let’s make it down and then we can get an estimation it’ll spit out, here’s predicted GDP.

让我们弥补它，让我们减少它，然后我们可以得到一个估计，它会吐出，这是预测的GDP。

So, the other piece of the Keynesian revolution is it really gets people thinking holistically about the economy as one conceptual unit and you then have what Paul Samuelson will end up calling the neoclassical synthesis and this is still in economics today.

因此，凯恩斯主义革命的另一部分是，它确实让人们将经济作为一个概念单位进行整体思考，然后你就得到了保罗·萨缪尔森最终所说的新古典综合体，这在今天的经济学中仍然存在。

If you take micro, you’re going to get supply and demand, scarcity, marginal analysis.

如果你采取微观的方式，你将得到供需、稀缺性、边际分析。

If you take macro, you’re going to get a very different approach and that’s more Keynesian based.

如果你从宏观角度来看，你会得到一种非常不同的方法，而且更加基于凯恩斯主义。

And so, the idea is that, and this makes sense, you can think of this from statistics, the way things act individually versus when they’re all added together, it can be very different.

所以，这个想法是，这是有道理的，你可以从统计数据中想到这一点，事物单独的行为方式与它们全部加在一起时的行为方式可能非常不同。

47:27 So, there’s this uneasy piece where economists are using neoclassical tools to analyze individual behavior and individual market behavior and they’re shifting to a different paradigm when they think about the economy as a whole.

因此，在这个令人不安的部分中，经济学家正在使用新古典主义工具来分析个人行为和个人市场行为，并且当他们考虑整个经济时，他们正在转向不同的范式。

And in this paradigm of the economy as a whole, the federal budget, the taxing and spending power of the federal government become paramount and that is called the fiscal revolution and that’s really the essence of Keynesianism.

在整个经济的范式中，联邦预算、联邦政府的税收和支出能力变得至关重要，这被称为财政革命，这确实是凯恩斯主义的本质。

But the key thing to remember is that Keynesianism and Keynes are different and there’s this famous episode where John Maynard Keynes comes to D.C. and he goes to dinner and he comes back and he says to one of his friends in London, he said, “Yeah, it was really interesting, I was the only non-Keynesian there.”

但要记住的关键是凯恩斯主义和凯恩斯是不同的，有一个著名的插曲，约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯来到华盛顿，他去吃晚饭，回来后对他在伦敦的一位朋友说，“是的，这真的很有趣，我是那里唯一的非凯恩斯主义者。”

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

So, Keynesianism is more government intervention, fiscal policy, so put the government at the center of influencing the economy.

所以凯恩斯主义更多的是政府干预、财政政策，所以把政府放在影响经济的中心。

48:16 And then the different flavors of whether it’s Austrian Economics or Chicago School of Economics is saying, no, we have to put less government intervention and trust the market more.

然后，无论是奥地利经济学派还是芝加哥经济学院的不同派别都说，不，我们必须减少政府干预，更多地信任市场。

And the formulation of that for Milton Friedman is trust the money more, not trust but the money supply is the thing that should be focused on.

米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）的表述是更多地信任货币，而不是信任，而是货币供应才是应该关注的问题。

Yes.

是的。

48:52 So, the Austrians and the Chicago School see economic prosperity and growth comes from individual initiative, individual entrepreneurship, private sources.

因此，奥地利学派和芝加哥学派认为经济繁荣和增长来自个人主动性、个人创业精神和私人来源。

The private market is what drives economic growth, not the public sector.

推动经济增长的是私人市场，而不是公共部门。

And so, for Friedman then the question is what is the government’s role.

因此，对于弗里德曼来说，问题是政府的角色是什么。

And because he’s lived through the Great Depression, he’s not laissez-faire and he won’t ever be laissez-faire.

因为他经历过大萧条，所以他不会自由放任，也永远不会自由放任。

Now, interestingly, Hayek, living through the Great Depression, at first is laissez-faire and he’s like, “Sure, let it rip.” And things get so bad that Hayek’s like, “Okay, that’s not going to work.”

现在，有趣的是，经历过大萧条的哈耶克一开始是自由放任的，他说：“当然，就让它撕裂吧。”事情变得如此糟糕，以至于哈耶克说：“好吧，这行不通。”

Can we actually define laissez-faire?

我们真的可以定义自由放任吗？

49:33 So, what do we mean?

那么，我们的意思是什么？

What’s the free market?

什么是自由市场？

What’s laissez-faire?

什么是自由放任？

What’s the extreme version here?

这里的极端版本​​是什么？

So, yeah, laissez-faire means leave it be in France.

所以，是的，自由放任意味着让它留在法国。

49:40 It’s more often used as an insult than as an actual.

它更常被用作侮辱而不是实际使用。

Very few people are completely and totally laissez-faire, that would be the pure laissez-faire would be maybe pure anarchist position like the state does nothing or the state isn’t even there.

很少有人是完全完全自由放任的，那是纯粹的自由放任，也许是纯粹的无政府主义立场，就像国家什么也不做，或者国家根本不存在一样。

But it tends to, if I could maybe make it more precise, it would be focused on freedom of contract would be essential and that means the buyer of labor and the seller of labor must have absolute freedom to contract.

但如果我可以说得更准确的话，它往往会侧重于合同自由，这将是至关重要的，这意味着劳动力的买方和劳动力的卖方必须拥有绝对的合同自由。

So, that means no minimum wage law, no working hours law, no employment law, things like that.

所以，这意味着没有最低工资法、没有工作时间法、没有就业法等等。

This is all pre-progressive movement, a lot of things are that way.

这都是前进步运动，很多事情都是这样。

Imagine you’re in 19th century America and you have a farm and you hire someone to help you on the farm, you offer the money, they take it.

想象一下，你在 19 世纪的美国，你有一个农场，你雇了一个人帮你打理农场，你提供钱，他们就拿走。

If they fall off a ladder and break their back, maybe you help them out, maybe you don’t but there’s not a whole apparatus of legal liability and safety and things like that.

如果他们从梯子上摔下来，摔断了背部，也许你会帮助他们，也许你不会，但没有一套完整的法律责任和安全机制以及类似的东西。

50:47 So, that would be one piece.

所以，那将是一件。

Another piece of laissez-faire would be free trade amongst nations, so no regulation of who can invest in a nation or who can take money out of a nation.

另一项自由放任政策是国家之间的自由贸易，因此没有规定谁可以在一个国家投资或谁可以从一个国家取钱。

So, Nippon Steel could come and invest in US Steel and there would be no grounds in which to reject that.

因此，新日铁可以来投资美国钢铁公司，没有理由拒绝这一点。

Or you could, as a billionaire in the United States, relocate you and all your money to another country and the United States couldn’t try to keep you and nobody else could stop you from coming in.

或者，作为美国的亿万富翁，您可以将您和所有的钱转移到另一个国家，而美国无法试图留住您，其他人也无法阻止您进入。

And then in the context of economic crisis, laissez-faire would not encompass centrally provided relief because, in the pure theory, again, very seldom applied purely but in the pure theory, the wages need to come down far enough and people need to be desperate enough to start taking work and to start the machine again.

然后，在经济危机的背景下，自由放任不会包括集中提供的救济，因为，在纯粹的理论中，很少会纯粹地应用，但在纯粹的理论中，工资需要大幅下降，人们需要绝望到足以开始工作并重新启动机器。

So, the theory would be, if you give people relief, they might not go back to work.

因此，理论上来说，如果你给人们救济，他们可能就不会回去工作了。

51:51 Now, almost nobody says that in the Great Depression because the situation is so bad and people are starving on the street and feel, for humanitarian and ethical reasons, it’s not okay to say that.

现在，在大萧条时期，几乎没有人这么说，因为情况非常糟糕，人们在街上挨饿，出于人道主义和道德原因，觉得这样说是不行的。

The Austrians though at first, Hayek and Lionel Robbins are like, “This is a business cycle and it needs to run its course and it will be detrimental if we intervene,” and then pretty soon Hayek has to change his tune.

奥地利学派起初、哈耶克和莱昂内尔·罗宾斯都说，“这是一个商业周期，它需要顺其自然，如果我们干预，那将是有害的”，但很快哈耶克就不得不改变他的论调。

So, the Austrians are the most hard core in terms of laissez-faire, right?

那么，奥地利人在自由放任方面是最硬核的吧？

Absolutely.

绝对地。

52:21 And so, Hayek will make the turn towards accepting more of a state and then will come to talk about how the state needs to support what he calls a competitive order.

因此，哈耶克将转向更多地接受国家，然后谈论国家需要如何支持他所说的竞争秩序。

But his mentor Ludwig von Mises still remains very hard core and is not really open to things like unemployment insurance or other state-based interventions.

但他的导师路德维希·冯·米塞斯仍然非常顽固，并且对失业保险或其他基于国家的干预措施并不真正持开放态度。

What does von Mises say about human suffering that’s witnessed in the Great Depression, for example?

例如，冯·米塞斯对大萧条时期目睹的人类苦难有何看法？

52:46 What are we supposed to, as economists, as humans that define policy, what are we supposed to see when people are suffering at scale?

作为经济学家，作为制定政策的人，当人们遭受大规模苦难时，我们应该看到什么？

Yeah, I wish I knew an answer to that question, I don’t know enough about von Mises and his reaction in the Great Depression.

是的，我希望我知道这个问题的答案，我对冯·米塞斯和他在大萧条中的反应了解不够。

53:01 I think I would hazard that he would look more to the down the road and say, “Well, if you start here, you’re going to go places that are bad,” but I don’t factually know what he said in response.

我想我会冒险让他更多地展望未来并说：“好吧，如果你从这里开始，你会去到糟糕的地方”，但我实际上不知道他的回应是什么。

I do know that Hayek’s position doesn’t last very long, it’s not a position you can hold to.

我确实知道哈耶克的立场不会持续很长时间，这不是一个你可以坚持的立场。

Maybe you could hold to it in other cycles.

也许你可以在其他周期中坚持下去。

The other thing that was interesting is I found very few Americans saying this, most who were were small town electeds or the most famous is Andrew Mellon quoted by Herbert Hoover.

另一件有趣的事情是，我发现很少有美国人这么说，大多数人都是小镇选举产生的，或者最著名的是赫伯特·胡佛引用的安德鲁·梅隆。

So, not directly, we don’t have him on record saying this but apparently Hoover records in his memoirs that Mellon said something like liquidate real estate, liquidate stocks, purge the rottenness out of the system, people will live a healthier life.

所以，不是直接的，我们没有记录在案的他说过这句话，但显然胡佛在他的回忆录中记录了梅隆说过诸如清算房地产、清算股票、清除系统中的腐烂现象之类的话，人们将过上更健康的生活。

54:06 And certainly, there were members of the Federal Reserve who felt like it would create, they didn’t say moral hazard, but it would create what we now call moral hazard, bad habits.

当然，美联储的一些成员认为这会造成，他们没有说道德风险，但它会造成我们现在所说的道德风险，即坏习惯。

Were we to intervene and to save failing banks because failing banks need to be taught a lesson, whey need to be taught discipline?

我们是否要干预并拯救破产银行，因为破产银行需要接受教训，为什么需要接受纪律教育？

And so, a lot of people, I think, saw it in the context of discipline, this is discipline and, if you remove the discipline, you’ll be taking away something fundamental in society.

所以，我认为，很多人都是在纪律的背景下看待它的，这就是纪律，如果你取消纪律，你就会夺走社会的一些基本东西。

So, Milton Friedman never quite went all the way to laissez-faire?

那么，米尔顿·弗里德曼从未完全走向自由放任？

No, no, he didn’t see that and what’s really interesting is the number of incredibly radical proposals that he and his teachers were floating.

不，不，他没有看到这一点，真正有趣的是他和他的老师提出的许多令人难以置信的激进建议。

54:39 So, I’ve mentioned Frank Knight, another really important influence on Friedman was Henry Simons who was a junior professor at Chicago.

所以，我提到了弗兰克·奈特，另一个对弗里德曼产生真正重要影响的人是芝加哥大学的初级教授亨利·西蒙斯。

And Simons had this idea for what he called 100% money which would be a law that says banks have to hold 100% of the deposits they receive, they can’t loan them out on the margin.

西蒙斯提出了他所谓的 100% 货币的想法，这将是一项法律，规定银行必须 100% 持有其收到的存款，不能以保证金将其贷出。

This would completely and totally have overhauled the US banking system and he would’ve said there’s a category of things called banks where you get deposits and then there’s going to be a category of, he didn’t say investment banks, but investment vehicles that will invest.

这将彻底彻底改革美国银行体系，他会说有一类叫做银行的东西，你可以在其中获得存款，然后会有一类，他没有说投资银行，而是投资工具。

55:24 So, similar to what did happen, in some ways, in the banking reforms in that, in the 1930s, the investment banks were split from the deposit banks and the banks that took deposits were much more highly regulated and they were supported by the FDIC.

因此，在某种程度上，与 20 世纪 30 年代的银行业改革中所发生的情况类似，投资银行从存款银行中分离出来，接受存款的银行受到更加严格的监管，并且得到 FDIC 的支持。

But the point being, the Chicago School had these very radical proposals for reform.

但重点是，芝加哥学派提出了这些非常激进的改革建议。

Go off the gold standard, restrict the currency, change the banks, immediately relief payments now.

放弃金本位，限制货币，更换银行，立即救济付款。

What is important to note though is that they thought of all of those as emergency measures to get through the emergency not as permanent alterations in the state of what had to be and not permanent alterations between state and market where the Keynesian assumption is things have changed, times have changed, we’re in a new dispensation and we need a new relationship.

但值得注意的是，他们认为所有这些都是度过紧急状态的紧急措施，而不是对必须存在的状态的永久性改变，也不是国家与市场之间的永久性改变，凯恩斯主义的假设是事情已经改变，时代已经改变，我们处于一个新的分配中，我们需要一种新的关系。

56:17 So, Friedman is very, Milton Friedman is very open to doing things differently in a state of emergency.

因此，弗里德曼非常非常愿意在紧急状态下以不同的方式做事。

He will have different ideas during World War II than any other time and that’s why I argue I think he would have been supportive of at least the first rounds of coronavirus relief because I think he would have put his emergency thinking hat on.

他在第二次世界大战期间会有与其他任何时候不同的想法，这就是为什么我认为他会支持至少第一轮冠状病毒救助，因为我认为他会戴上紧急思维的帽子。

So, in that way, he was definitely more flexible.

所以，这样一来，他肯定更加灵活。

You mentioned Hayek.

你提到了哈耶克。

56:43 Who is this guy?

这家伙是谁？

What’s his relationship to Milton Friedman in the space of ideas and in the context of the Great Depression?

在思想空间和大萧条背景下，他与米尔顿·弗里德曼有何关系？

Can we talk about that a little bit?

我们可以谈谈这个吗？

Sure.

当然。

56:55 So, F.A.

所以，F.A.

Hayek is an Austrian economist who takes up a posting in London and he’s a mentor, a mentee rather of Ludwig von Mises.

哈耶克是一位在伦敦任职的奥地利经济学家，他是路德维希·冯·米塞斯的导师、受训者。

He’s writing about business cycles, Austrian Capital Theory and the Depression hits and he’s one of the few economists who, in the beginning, really is not calling for much intervention.

他正在撰写有关商业周期、奥地利资本理论和大萧条的文章，他是少数从一开始就真正不呼吁太多干预的经济学家之一。

Although, as he realizes how politically unpalatable that is, he will develop a more softened version of Austrian economics that has room for a whole range of social services.

不过，当他意识到这在政治上是多么令人不快时，他将开发一种更为软化的奥地利经济学版本，为一系列社会服务提供空间。

What’s significant about Hayek is that he is also watching what’s happening in Austria, what’s happening in Germany and he’s really worried the same thing is going to happen to the Western democracies.

哈耶克的重要之处在于，他也在关注奥地利和德国正在发生的事情，他真的很担心同样的事情也会发生在西方民主国家。

And he sees the root cause of this is socialism, the shift towards an expanded role for government which, we’ve been talking about, is happening in the United States, it’s also happening in Britain.

他认为造成这种情况的根本原因是社会主义，即政府角色扩大的转变，我们一直在谈论的这种转变正在美国发生，也正在英国发生。

57:54 And so, he writes this book that becomes incredibly famous, The Road to Serfdom, basically saying taking these steps towards a planned economy or an economy that’s a modified form of capitalism is going to …

因此，他写了这本非常著名的书《通往奴役之路》，基本上说，采取这些步骤走向计划经济或资本主义改良形式的经济将……

Could, he’s very clear that this is not an inevitability but, if the same steps are taken and people follow the same line of thinking, we may end up in a coercive, totalitarian state.

可能吧，他很清楚，这不是必然的，但是，如果采取同样的步骤，人们遵循同样的思维方式，我们最终可能会陷入一个强制的、极权主义的国家。

So, this becomes enormously popular in the United States.

因此，这在美国非常受欢迎。

First of all, he’s in good touch with Friedman’s teachers even before this book comes out, they see them as kindred spirits.

首先，在这本书出版之前，他就与弗里德曼的老师们保持着良好的联系，他们认为他们是志同道合的人。

Frank Knight is in touch with him, Henry Simons is in touch with him, they all see themselves as liberals, they call themselves old fashioned unreconstructed liberals.

弗兰克·奈特（Frank Knight）与他有联系，亨利·西蒙斯（Henry Simons）与他有联系，他们都认为自己是自由主义者，他们称自己为老式的、顽固的自由主义者。

And so, even before he becomes famous, Hayek will be trying to organize thinkers and intellectuals who he believe shares his values of what we would call today classical liberalism and to create a counter consensus to the one that’s gathering.

因此，甚至在成名之前，哈耶克就试图将他认为与他价值观相同的思想家和知识分子组织起来，即我们今天所说的古典自由主义，并形成一种与正在聚集的共识相反的共识。

58:53 Now, Hayek also chooses not to argue against Keynes and he feels that this is a huge missed opportunity that he should have staked out the case against Keynes and that, because he did not, people come to believe there is no case against Keynes, Keynes is literally unanswerable.

现在，哈耶克也选择不反对凯恩斯，他觉得这是一个巨大的错失机会，他本应该提出反对凯恩斯的案子，但因为他没有这样做，人们开始相信不存在反对凯恩斯的案子，凯恩斯实际上是无法回答的。

So, Hayek will have this great regret, he will channel some of his regrets into community building, specifically developing The Mont Pelerin Society, and it will fall to Friedman to really make that case against Keynes.

所以，哈耶克将会有这个巨大的遗憾，他会将他的一些遗憾转化为社区建设，特别是发展朝圣山协会，而真正反对凯恩斯的将落在弗里德曼身上。

But Hayek will end up at Chicago and Hayek really influences Friedman to think about what Hayek calls the competitive order and how the state can and must maintain a competitive order that is the system of laws, of norms, of practices that makes it possible for markets to function.

但哈耶克最终会来到芝加哥，哈耶克真正影响了弗里德曼思考哈耶克所说的竞争秩序，以及国家如何能够而且必须维持竞争秩序，即使市场发挥作用的法律、规范和实践体系。

59:51 And this is one of these key differentiators between the older philosophy of laissez-faire and the newer reconceptualization of liberalism which says, yes, we need a state, we need a state that’s not intervening in markets under social democratic auspices but is structuring and supporting markets so that they can function with maximum freedom keeping in mind that, if there aren’t basic social supports needed, the market is apt to generate the type of either inequality or social instability that will call the whole system into question.

这是旧的自由放任哲学和新的自由主义重新概念之间的关键区别之一，后者说，是的，我们需要一个国家，我们需要一个国家，它不在社会民主主义的支持下干预市场，而是构建和支持市场，以便它们能够以最大的自由发挥作用，同时记住，如果不需要基本的社会支持，市场很容易产生不平等或社会不稳定，从而使整个体系陷入困境。问题。

1:00:28 So, Hayek is really key in promoting this modified liberalism.

因此，哈耶克确实是推动这种改良自由主义的关键。

But, from being a very prominent economist in the 1920s and 1930s as mathematics becomes the language of economics, Hayek is completely left out in the cold.

但是，随着数学成为经济学的语言，哈耶克从 20 世纪 20 年代和 1930 年代一位非常杰出的经济学家开始，完全被冷落了。

Now, Friedman, to some degree, is left out in the cold but Friedman at least has proved the mathematical economists and he knows what they’re up to and he’s rejecting it from a position of expertise and knowledge and he literally drives the mathematical economists out of Chicago.

现在，弗里德曼在某种程度上被冷落了，但弗里德曼至少证明了数理经济学家，他知道他们在做什么，他从专业知识和知识的立场上拒绝了它，他确实将数理经济学家赶出了芝加哥。

They’re clustered in a group called the Cowles Commission and he makes their life hell, they flee, they flee the Friedman onslaught.

他们聚集在一个名为考尔斯委员会的组织中，他让他们的生活变得地狱，他们逃离，逃离弗里德曼的攻击。

But then when Hayek arrives at the University of Chicago, he would like to be considered for a position in the economics department and Friedman, Milton Friedman says, “No way, you’re not really an economist because you’re not empirical, because you just developed these theories.”

但当哈耶克到达芝加哥大学时，他希望被考虑在经济系任职，而弗里德曼，米尔顿·弗里德曼说，“不可能，你不是真正的经济学家，因为你不是经验主义者，因为你只是发展了这些理论。”

1:01:26 So, he has an appreciation for Hayek as a social thinker but not as an economist so what Friedman decides to do, his answer to Keynes will be deeply empirical but it will also be theoretical and it will create an alternative intellectual world and approach for economists who aren’t satisfied with Keynesianism.

因此，他欣赏哈耶克作为一个社会思想家，而不是作为一个经济学家，所以弗里德曼决定做什么，他对凯恩斯的回答将是深刻的实证性的，但它也将是理论性的，它将为那些不满意凯恩斯主义的经济学家创造一个替代的知识世界和方法。

And almost single-handedly, Friedman will introduce political and ideological diversity into the field of economics because, from his beachhead in Chicago, he will develop the theory of monetarism.

弗里德曼几乎凭一己之力将政治和意识形态的多样性引入经济学领域，因为他将从芝加哥的滩头阵地出发，发展货币主义理论。

So, what is monetarism?

那么，什么是货币主义？

The easy way to summarize it is this famous dictum of Milton Friedman’s, inflation is always and everywhere, a monetary phenomenon.

最简单的总结就是米尔顿·弗里德曼的这句著名格言：通货膨胀始终无处不在，是一种货币现象。

And it’s fascinating that he becomes an expert in inflation because the first research and the first major research product of monetarism is that theory of the Great Depression in a monetary history of the United States and that is a theory of a deflation, all price is going down.

令人着迷的是，他成为通货膨胀方面的专家，因为货币主义的第一个研究和第一个主要研究产品是美国货币史上的大萧条理论，这是一个通货紧缩理论，所有价格都在下降。

1:02:33 And he will go back to an idea that Irving Fisher had popularized but a very old idea, almost a truism, the Quantity Theory of Money which says the level of the price level is related to the amount of money circulating in an economy.

他将回到欧文·费舍尔（Irving Fisher）流行的一个非常古老的想法，几乎是一个不言而喻的想法，即货币数量论，该理论认为价格水平的水平与经济体中流通的货币量有关。

So, if you have more money, prices go up, if you have less money, prices go down.

所以，如果你的钱多了，价格就会上涨，如果你的钱少了，价格就会下降。

Now, this seems very basic and almost too basic to bear repeating but Friedman is saying this very basic relationship holds true even in an advanced industrial economy and that is what people have started to doubt.

现在，这似乎非常基本，几乎太基本了，无法重复，但弗里德曼说，即使在先进的工业经济中，这种非常基本的关系也成立，而这正是人们开始怀疑的地方。

And if you think about money, you think about banks, you don’t think necessarily about the federal budget spending and taxation.

如果你想到金钱，你就会想到银行，你不一定会想到联邦预算支出和税收。

1:03:18 And what you see happens in American economics, the textbooks previous to the Keynesian Revolution, they spent a lot of time on money, they spent a lot of time on interest rates.

你在美国经济学中看到的情况，凯恩斯主义革命之前的教科书，他们花了很多时间在货币上，他们花了很多时间在利率上。

You can do word counts and other scholars have done the word counts and the word count for money after World War II just plummets and you start seeing things like taxation, budget, those things go up.

你可以统计一下字数，其他学者也做过字数统计，二战后金钱的字数急剧下降，你开始看到税收、预算等东西上升。

So, what happens is the economics profession shifts its attention, it just looks away from money to other things and Friedman is one of the few who’s saying, no, money still matters, money still counts and it’s a very counterintuitive argument to make, it’s a very historical argument to make and this is absolutely fascinating to me.

因此，经济学界将注意力从金钱转移到其他事物上，而弗里德曼是少数几个说“不，金钱仍然重要，金钱仍然重要”的人之一，这是一个非常违反直觉的论点，这是一个非常历史性的论点，这对我来说绝对是令人着迷的。

1:04:02 With Anna Schwartz, he develops this 150-year timeframe, he also has students working on episodes of hyperinflation in different periods of time, he’s also looking back to ancient history, inflationary episodes there and he’s saying this is a law of economics.

他与安娜·施瓦茨 (Anna Schwartz) 一起制定了这个 150 年的时间框架，他还让学生研究不同时期的恶性通货膨胀事件，他还回顾了古代历史，那里的通货膨胀事件，他说这是一条经济学定律。

This is something that recurs throughout time, it’s not historical, it’s not contingent, it’s a law of economics.

这是随着时间的推移不断重复出现的事情，它不是历史的，也不是偶然的，而是经济规律。

And his Keynesian counterpoints are saying, no, that’s not relevant any longer, maybe once it was relevant but it’s not relevant today.

他的凯恩斯主义对立面是说，不，这不再相关了，也许曾经相关，但今天已经不相关了。

Now, in some ways, they have a point because, in order to pay for World War II, the federal government sells a lot of bonds, it issues a lot of debt and it wants to pay this debt back a low interest rate and it wants people to keep buying it, it wants the low interest rate to be competitive with other interest rates.

现在，在某些方面，他们有道理，因为为了支付第二次世界大战的费用，联邦政府出售了大量债券，发行了大量债务，它希望以低利率偿还这些债务，它希望人们继续购买它，它希望低利率与其他利率具有竞争力。

So, wants, in general, low interest rates throughout the economy.

因此，总的来说，希望整个经济保持低利率。

1:05:03 And the Federal Reserve has been so discredited by the Great Depression that the Treasury basically runs the Federal Reserve and says keep interest rates low.

而美联储因大萧条而名誉扫地，以至于财政部基本上负责管理美联储，并表示要保持低利率。

And so, that’s what it’s doing and so the Federal Reserve has stopped being an independent entity, it’s just a sub-department of the Treasury.

所以，这就是它正在做的事情，所以美联储已经不再是一个独立的实体，它只是财政部的一个子部门。

But in 1951, they negotiate what’s called the Treasury Fed Accord and the Federal Reserve gets its independence but it doesn’t really use it but, statutorily, it now has it.

但在 1951 年，他们通过谈判达成了所谓的《财政部美联储协议》，美联储获得了独立性，但它并没有真正使用它，但从法律上讲，它现在拥有了独立性。

And so, most economists are just observing a regime in which the Federal Reserve has no power, a regime in which there is really little inflation, the inflation that is seen is post …

因此，大多数经济学家只是在观察一个美联储没有权力的政权，一个几乎没有通货膨胀的政权，所看到的通货膨胀是事后......

There’s a little burst of inflation in the Korean War.

朝鲜战争期间出现了一点通货膨胀。

And they’re saying inflation’s not really important, it’s not really relevant and money’s not really relevant and important.

他们说通货膨胀并不真正重要，它并不真正相关，金钱也并不真正相关和重要。

And so, to break through and to make the argument, that’s why Friedman and Schwartz go to history and they’re able to make that argument for history.

因此，为了突破并提出论证，这就是弗里德曼和施瓦茨走向历史的原因，并且他们能够为历史提出论证。

1:06:03 So, then Friedman is coming out with a variety of papers that are saying, when I look at economic fluctuations, he maps them side by side to fluctuations in the money supply and says, look, they fit.

因此，弗里德曼发表了各种论文，这些论文说，当我研究经济波动时，他将它们与货币供应量的波动并排映射，然后说，看，它们是吻合的。

And other economists, remember, they’re building complicated mathematical models and Friedman’s doing extremely simple stuff and they just think it’s dumb, it’s not interesting, it’s not true, they don’t buy it at all.

其他经济学家，请记住，他们正在建立复杂的数学模型，而弗里德曼正在做极其简单的事情，他们只是认为这是愚蠢的，这并不有趣，这不是真的，他们根本不相信它。

But after A Monetary History of the United States, they have to pay attention.

但读完《美国货币史》后，他们必须注意了。

So, it’s really in those years Friedman is hammering this idea of monetarism and it starts to become something respectable, bordering on respectable for other economists to look to and think about and that’s really the beginning of the Keynesian Monetarist split where, if you start to give Friedman any credence, you’re heading towards a monetarist position.

所以，正是在那些年里，弗里德曼正在锤炼货币主义这一理念，它开始成为一种值得尊敬的东西，几乎值得其他经济学家关注和思考，这实际上是凯恩斯主义货币主义分裂的开始，如果你开始相信弗里德曼，你就会走向货币主义立场。

1:06:58 Now, at the same time, Friedman comes out very publicly in 1964 as a supporter of Barry Goldwater and Keynesian economics has found a home in the Democratic Party.

与此同时，弗里德曼在 1964 年公开表示自己是巴里·戈德华特 (Barry Goldwater) 的支持者，凯恩斯主义经济学也在民主党中找到了立足之地。

Its probably brightest moment in the sun is the administration of John F.

它最耀眼的时刻可能是约翰·肯尼迪 (John F.

Kennedy who brings in a lot of Harvard and Yale professors to the Council of Economic Advisors, he proposes a series of spending programs that are really guided by the Keynesian philosophy.

肯尼迪引进了很多哈佛大学和耶鲁大学的教授进入经济顾问委员会，他提出了一系列真正以凯恩斯主义哲学为指导的支出计划。

And the Barry Goldwater is tremendously controversial, part for his votes against civil rights which Friedman really supports and part because he’s a hard core libertarian in an age when that’s not in the political mainstream or not discussed in the political mainstream and he’s just tremendously unpopular particularly in all the educated precincts where Friedman lives.

巴里·戈德华特备受争议，部分原因是他投票反对弗里德曼真正支持的民权，部分原因是他是一名铁杆自由主义者，而在这个时代，民权不属于政治主流，也没有在政治主流中讨论，而且他非常不受欢迎，尤其是在弗里德曼居住的所有受过教育的地区。

So, Friedman is like an outcast and a pariah for his support of Goldwater.

因此，弗里德曼对戈德华特的支持就像是一个被排斥者和贱民。

1:07:53 And so, that actually really affects monetarism because people feel that this is now becoming a package deal and so there’s a great reluctance to embrace Friedman’s-

因此，这实际上确实影响了货币主义，因为人们觉得这现在正在成为一揽子交易，因此人们非常不愿意接受弗里德曼的——

1:08:00 And so there’s a great reluctance to embrace Friedman’s ideas because it seems like you would then have to embrace his politics.

因此，人们非常不愿意接受弗里德曼的想法，因为似乎你必须接受他的政治。

So it’s associated with conservatism.

所以它与保守主义有关。

So this is the years when conservatism…

所以这是保守主义的年代……

1:08:12 There is a movement that calls itself conservatism.

有一种运动自称为保守主义。

And Friedman is very tightly allied with this movement from the beginning, partly through his friendship with William F.

弗里德曼从一开始就与这一运动保持着紧密的联系，部分原因是他与威廉·F·弗里德曼 (William F.

Buckley.

巴克利。

And a lot of people say to me, yeah, but Friedman’s not conservative.

很多人对我说，是的，但弗里德曼并不保守。

And this is like a bigger…

这就像一个更大的……

You have a whole separate podcast on this.

你有一个关于这个的完整独立的播客。

1:08:33 But for now, I’ll just say that conservative in the United States becomes a political brand that contains elements of conservatism that are recognizable across time and space, embrace of tradition or comfort with hierarchy, et cetera.

但现在，我只想说，美国的保守派已经成为一个政治品牌，其中包含了跨越时空、拥抱传统或安于等级制度等保守主义元素。

And it also has something new and different, which is Friedman’s ideas about…

它还有一些新的、不同的东西，这是弗里德曼的想法……

Milton Friedman’s advocacy of more free markets, less government regulation, and the benefits of capitalism and the benefits of freedom.

米尔顿·弗里德曼主张更多的自由市场、更少的政府监管以及资本主义的好处和自由的好处。

1:09:03 And that gets folded into American conservatism, in part because Milton Friedman is such a powerful intellectual figure.

这融入了美国的保守主义，部分原因是米尔顿·弗里德曼是一位如此强大的知识分子。

And after his advocacy of Goldwater the media realizes this guy’s really smart.

在他为戈德华特辩护之后，媒体意识到这个人真的很聪明。

He has really interesting things to say.

他有非常有趣的事情要说。

He makes great copy, he makes a great guest, and he starts writing a column for Newsweek magazine, which is a very big deal in a much more consolidated media environment.

他制作了出色的文案，成为了一位出色的嘉宾，并且开始为《新闻周刊》杂志撰写专栏，这在更加统一的媒体环境中是一件非常重要的事情。

And he’s quoted in all the newspapers.

所有报纸都引用了他的话。

And so his public profile really starts to rise right as he’s pushing monetarism as an alternative to the Keynesian synthesis.

因此，当他推动货币主义作为凯恩斯综合体的替代品时，他的公众形象确实开始上升。

Can we just linger on what is monetarism?

我们能不能继续停留在什么是货币主义上？

1:09:39 Once again-

再次——

Yes.

是的。

1:09:44 Okay, I didn’t go into it.

好吧，我没有深究。

Okay.

好的。

1:09:45 The money supply.

货币供应量。

Yes.

是的。

So money is this thing that you can think of it as a notion where people buy and sell stuff, and there’s this fascinating complex dynamical system of people contracting with each other in this beautiful way.

因此，金钱就是这样一种东西，你可以将其视为人们买卖东西的概念，并且存在着人们以这种美丽的方式相互契约的令人着迷的复杂动力系统。

1:09:47 There’s so many pothead questions I want to ask here, about the nature of money.

我想在这里问很多关于金钱本质的傻瓜问题。

Money is fascinating in that way, and I think for Milton Friedman trusting the flow of money is really important and the signals that pricing and money in general provides is really important.

金钱在这方面是令人着迷的，我认为对于米尔顿·弗里德曼来说，信任金钱的流动非常重要，而定价和金钱一般提供的信号也非常重要。

Yeah.

是的。

1:10:25 And I could take some of this back again to Frank Knight.

我可以将其中的一些内容再次带回给弗兰克·奈特。

So one thing Frank Knight said to all his students was the market is the best allocation mechanism we have.

因此，弗兰克·奈特对他所有的学生说的一件事是，市场是我们拥有的最好的配置机制。

The market is what allocates resources.

市场是配置资源的。

In a situation of scarcity the market allocates them the best.

在稀缺的情况下，市场会对其进行最好的配置。

And Hayek will add to that by saying, “prices are information signals, and a price sends information to buyers and sellers about how they should act.” And these are two of the strongest arguments for why the government should not intervene in the price system because it will blur information or because it will allocate less efficiently than market allocation will.

哈耶克补充道，“价格是信息信号，价格向买家和卖家发送关于他们应该如何行动的信息。”这是为什么政府不应该干预价格体系的两个最有力的论据，因为它会模糊信息，或者因为它的配置效率低于市场配置。

1:11:09 And so what Friedman is really going to add to that is maybe going up a level and thinking in the macro about the whole economy and how money circulates through that economy as a whole.

因此，弗里德曼真正要补充的可能是提高一个水平，从宏观角度思考整个经济以及货币如何在整个经济中流通。

And so what he and Anna Schwartz do is they construct what are called monetary aggregates.

因此，他和安娜·施瓦茨所做的就是构建所谓的货币总量。

This is adding together say all the money that’s on deposit in banks and all the money that’s believed to be circulating in people’s wallets.

这就是银行存款的所有资金和人们钱包中流通的所有资金的总和。

1:11:38 And you also have to really go back in time.

而且你还必须真正回到过去。

We don’t have credit cards.

我们没有信用卡。

There is a stock market, but it’s tiny in terms of the number of people who invest.

有一个股票市场，但就投资人数而言却很小。

There aren’t mutual funds.

没有共同基金。

When travelers checks are introduced, this is a big deal.

当旅行支票被引入时，这是一件大事。

So we have a very simple monetary system.

所以我们有一个非常简单的货币体系。

And so Schwartz and Milton Friedman start measuring what they call the monetary aggregates.

因此，施瓦茨和米尔顿·弗里德曼开始衡量他们所谓的货币总量。

They focus on M1 and M2 and their favorite aggregate is M2, which I believe is encompassing sort of deposits and circulating medium.

他们关注M1和M2，他们最喜欢的总量是M2，我认为它包含了某种存款和流通媒介。

1:12:16 The other thing to recall, there’s some fine distinctions between money in savings accounts and money in checking accounts, and money in savings accounts can earn interest and is generally believed not to circulate or money in checking accounts does not at that time bear interest and cannot legally bear interest.

另一件需要记住的事情是，储蓄账户中的钱和支票账户中的钱之间有一些细微的区别，储蓄账户中的钱可以赚取利息，并且通常被认为不能流通，或者支票账户中的钱当时不产生利息，并且不能合法地产生利息。

And so is thought of as circulating.

因此被认为是循环的。

And then there’s different institutional architectures of postal savings, banks and credit unions.

还有邮政储蓄、银行和信用合作社等不同的制度架构。

1:12:48 But Friedman is one, taking the focus to these aggregate amounts of money and saying, these really have a lot to do with economic booms and busts.

但弗里德曼就是其中之一，他将注意力集中在这些货币总量上，并表示，这些确实与经济繁荣和萧条有很大关系。

When we have an expansion in the amount of available money, we see an expansion in economic activity.

当可用资金数量增加时，我们就会看到经济活动的扩张。

When we have a contraction in available money, we have a contraction.

当可用资金收缩时，我们就会收缩。

And so he says at this stage, the government through the mechanism of the Federal Reserve and its influence on interest rates can either make money more cheaply available and more freely available in the economy or can make money more expensive and slow things down.

因此，他表示，在现阶段，政府通过美联储的机制及其对利率的影响，要么可以让资金更便宜、更自由地在经济中获得，要么可以让资金变得更贵并减缓经济发展。

1:13:32 But the central core idea of monetarism is this is potentially very bad if the government can hit the gas and then hit the brake, and hit the gas and hit the brake based on say what a politician wants or what somebody at the Federal Reserve wants.

但货币主义的核心思想是，如果政府可以先踩油门，然后踩刹车，然后根据政客的愿望或美联储某人的愿望来踩油门、踩刹车，这可能会非常糟糕。

You have a lot of instability in the system.

系统中有很多不稳定因素。

And so one of the core policy proposals of monetarism is let’s grow the money supply at a steady rate.

因此，货币主义的核心政策建议之一就是让货币供应量以稳定的速度增长。

And in the beginning, Friedman just says K%, he doesn’t even put a number on it because he says the number doesn’t matter.

一开始，弗里德曼只是说 K%，他甚至没有写上数字，因为他说数字并不重要。

What matters is the steadiness in the growth rate.

重要的是增长速度的稳定性。

Because if it’s a steady growth rate, it will fade away.

因为如果它是稳定的增长率，它就会消失。

And then people will make economic decisions based on the fundamentals, not based on what they think is going to happen, not based on hedging against inflation or hedging against deflation.

然后人们将根据基本面做出经济决策，而不是基于他们认为将要发生的事情，而不是基于对冲通胀或对冲通货紧缩。

They’ll just be able to function.

他们将能够发挥作用。

1:14:33 So this is sort of the paradox of monetary policy.

所以这就是货币政策的悖论。

When it’s happening right you don’t see it, you don’t notice it.

当它发生时，你看不到它，也没有注意到它。

When it’s happening wrong, Friedman argues, it can just fundamentally destabilize everything.

弗里德曼认为，当事情发生错误时，就会从根本上破坏一切的稳定。

It can cause a great depression, can cause an artificial boom.

它可以造成大萧条，也可以造成人为的繁荣。

And so he’s taking monetary policy at a time when most economists think it’s completely irrelevant and saying, this is the central game of the economy.

因此，当大多数经济学家认为货币政策完全无关紧要并表示这是经济的核心游戏时，他却采取了货币政策。

Now we live in a world where we believe this and the Federal Reserve chair can’t open their mouth without headlines being generated.

现在我们生活在一个我们相信这一点的世界，美联​​储主席在不产生头条新闻的情况下无法张开嘴。

But Friedman is saying this at a time when the Federal Reserve is a mysterious and secretive organization.

但弗里德曼是在美联储是一个神秘而隐秘的组织的时候说出这番话的。

It’s not well-known, it’s not deeply appreciated.

它不为人们所熟知，也没有被深入的欣赏。

Some of the only people who appreciate the Fed’s power are hardcore rural populists, who have constituents who think the banks and money power are the problem, who are throwbacks from the frontier days.

唯一欣赏美联储权力的人是铁杆农村民粹主义者，他们的选民认为银行和货币权力才是问题所在，他们是前线时代的倒退者。

1:15:31 So Friedman in the beginning has no constituency for this policy.

所以弗里德曼一开始并没有支持这一政策的选民。

He has no constituency for this analysis.

他的这种分析没有支持者。

And so just going back to summarize monetarism, it’s looking, it’s using the quantity theory of money to analyze the macroeconomy.

回顾一下货币主义，它看起来是用货币数量论来分析宏观经济。

It’s proposing a policy of slow and steady growth in the money supply.

它提出了货币供应量缓慢稳定增长的政策。

And then it is arguing that inflationary episodes when they emerge are profoundly driven by changes in the money supply, not by anything else.

然后有人认为，通货膨胀事件的出现在很大程度上是由货币供应量的变化驱动的，而不是其他任何因素。

And going even up a level as we started, how epic is it to develop this idea, to hold this idea and then to convince the United States of this idea that money matters, that today we believe is mostly correct for now?

甚至比我们开始时更上一层楼，发展这个想法，坚持这个想法，然后让美国相信金钱很重要，今天我们认为目前大部分是正确的，这是多么史诗般的事情？

1:16:07 And so just this idea that goes against the experts and then eventually wins out and drives so much of the economy, the biggest, the most powerful economy in the world.

因此，正是这种与专家相悖的想法最终获胜并推动了经济的发展，成为世界上最大、最强大的经济体。

So fascinating.

太迷人了。

Yeah.

是的。

1:16:43 So that’s a fascinating story.

这是一个引人入胜的故事。

And so what happens is Friedman has advanced all these ideas, he’s ruled the economics profession, he’s built a political profile and then he becomes the head of the American Economics Association.

因此，弗里德曼提出了所有这些想法，他统治了经济学界，他建立了政治形象，然后他成为美国经济学会的会长。

And he is asked in that role to give a presidential address.

他被要求以该职位发表总统讲话。

And so he gives his presidential address December 1967, and he says, “I’m going to talk about inflation and I’m going to talk about the trade-off between inflation and unemployment.” And this is what’s generally known as the Phillips Curve and the Phillips Curve in its original form is derived of post-World War II data.

因此，他在 1967 年 12 月发表了总统讲话，他说：“我将谈论通货膨胀，我将谈论通货膨胀与失业之间的权衡。”这就是通常所说的菲利普斯曲线，菲利普斯曲线的原始形式是根据二战后的数据得出的。

So it’s derived of about 12 years of data, and it shows that when inflation goes up, unemployment goes down.

所以它是根据大约 12 年的数据得出的，它表明当通货膨胀上升时，失业率就会下降。

And the idea would make sense that as the economy’s heating up and lots of things are happening, more and more people are getting hired.

这个想法是有道理的，因为随着经济的升温和许多事情的发生，越来越多的人被雇用。

1:17:41 And so this relationship has led policymakers to think that sometimes inflation is good, and if you want to lower unemployment, you could let inflation go a little bit.

因此，这种关系导致政策制定者认为，有时通胀是好的，如果你想降低失业率，你可以稍微放任通胀。

And in the crude forms, it becomes to seem like a menu.

在原始形式中，它看起来就像一个菜单。

Like you could take your model and you could plug in, I want this much unemployment.

就像你可以使用你的模型并且可以插入一样，我想要这么多的失业。

And it would say, well, great, this is how much inflation you should do.

它会说，好吧，太棒了，这就是你应该做的通货膨胀程度。

And so then you would target that inflation rate.

那么你就会以通货膨胀率为目标。

1:18:10 So Friedman gets up and he says, “this is wrong.

于是弗里德曼站起来说：“这是错误的。

This might work in the short term, but it’s not going to work in the long term.” Because in the long term inflation has…

这可能在短期内有效，但从长远来看是行不通的。”因为从长期来看，通货膨胀......

First of all, it has a momentum of its own.

首先，它有自己的气势。

Once it gets going, it tends to build on itself.

一旦开始，它就会自行发展。

The accelerationist thesis, it accelerates.

加速论的论点是，它加速了。

And once inflation gets going, and the reason it gets going is because workers go to the store and they see the price level has gone up, things have cost more.

一旦通货膨胀开始，其发生的原因是因为工人去商店，他们看到价格水平上涨，东西的价格更高。

They ask for their wages to go up, then eventually the wages will go up too high and they will no longer be hireable or companies will decide at these high wages I can’t hire as many workers, I’d better lay off.

他们要求涨工资，然后最终工资会涨得太高，他们将不再被雇用，或者公司会决定在这么高的工资下我不能雇用那么多工人，我最好解雇。

So if inflation keeps going eventually over the long term it will result in high unemployment.

因此，如果通货膨胀最终长期持续下去，将导致高失业率。

1:19:02 So he says, “theoretically, you could end up in a situation where you have high inflation and high unemployment.

所以他说，“从理论上讲，你最终可能会陷入高通胀和高失业率的境地。

This hasn’t been seen,” but he says, “theoretically this could happen.” And then he goes and he says, “and the government has started expanding the money supply in 1966, so we’re going to get a bunch of inflation, and then we’re going to get a bunch of unemployment.” And he estimates about how long it will take.

这还没有被看到，”但他说，“理论上这可能会发生。”然后他说：“政府从 1966 年开始扩大货币供应量，所以我们将会出现严重的通货膨胀，然后会出现大量的失业。”他估计需要多长时间。

And then he says, “once this all happens, it will take about 20 years to get back to normal.” And-

然后他说，“一旦这一切发生，大约需要 20 年才能恢复正常。”还有——

And he predicts the stagflation of the 1970s.

他还预测 20 世纪 70 年代将出现滞胀。

Stagflation of the 1970s.

20世纪70年代的滞胀。

[inaudible 01:19:39] for an economy.

[听不清 01:19:39] 对于经济来说。

1:19:39 Again against the mainstream belief represented by the Phillips Curve.

再次反对以菲利普斯曲线为代表的主流信念。

Yeah.

是的。

1:19:47 And what really makes it happen is that many of the economists who most deeply dislike Friedman and most deeply dislike his politics in the 1970s, as they’re running their models, they start to say Friedman’s, right?

真正导致这种情况发生的是，许多最不喜欢弗里德曼、最不喜欢他的政治的经济学家在 20 世纪 70 年代，当他们运行他们的模型时，他们开始说弗里德曼的，对吗？

They start to see in the data that he’s right.

他们开始从数据中看到他是对的。

1:20:04 And a very parallel process happens in Britain.

英国也发生了一个非常平行的过程。

Britain is going through a very similar burst of spending, burst of inflation.

英国正在经历非常相似的支出爆发和通货膨胀。

And so Friedman is vindicated in this very profound way, in the way that he himself said would be the ultimate vindication, which is, my theory should predict.

因此，弗里德曼以这种非常深刻的方式得到了证明，就像他自己所说的最终证明一样，这就是我的理论应该预测的。

So that prediction of stagflation is really the sort of final breakthrough of his ideas and also their importance to policy and to thinking about how we should intervene or not in the economy and what the role of the Federal Reserve is.

因此，对滞胀的预测实际上是他的思想的最终突破，也是其对政策和思考我们应该如何干预经济以及美联储的作用的重要性。

Because he’s saying the Federal Reserve is incredibly powerful.

因为他说美联储非常强大。

And finally people start to believe him.

最后人们开始相信他。

And I don’t know if we said, but to make clear stagflation means high unemployment and high inflation, which is a thing like you mentioned, was not seen before and he predicted accurately.

我不知道我们是否说过，但要明确的是，滞胀意味着高失业率和高通胀，就像你提到的那样，以前没有见过，他预测得很准确。

1:20:43 And it also disproves the relationship, the inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation.

它还反驳了失业与通货膨胀之间的反比关系。

Yeah.

是的。

1:21:05 Now I should say the Phillips Curve is still out there.

现在我应该说菲利普斯曲线仍然存在。

It’s been expectations augmented and it is relevant in the short term, but Friedman’s warning is still very much apt, that if you get too focused on unemployment you can let inflation out of the bag.

人们的预期有所增强，而且在短期内是相关的，但弗里德曼的警告仍然非常恰当，即如果你过于关注失业问题，你可能会漏掉通货膨胀。

And so until very recently, the Federal Reserve’s tradition has been focusing on inflation, believing that’s fundamental and that will keep unemployment low, rather than trying to lower unemployment at the cost of raising inflation.

因此，直到最近，美联储的传统一直关注通胀，认为这是根本性的，这将保持低失业率，而不是试图以提高通胀为代价来降低失业率。

Can we go back to Frank Knight and the big picture thing we started with, which is the justification of capitalism?

我们可以回到弗兰克·奈特（Frank Knight）和我们开始时的大局，即资本主义的正当性吗？

Yes.

是的。

So as you mentioned, Milton Friedman searched for a moral justification of capitalism.

正如你提到的，米尔顿·弗里德曼寻找资本主义的道德正当性。

1:21:46 Frank Knight was a big influence on Milton Friedman and including on this topic of understanding the moral justification of capitalism.

弗兰克·奈特（Frank Knight）对米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）影响很大，包括理解资本主义的道德正当性这一主题。

I think you spoke about Knight’s Case for capitalism was grounded in the idea that the ability to act in the face of uncertainty creates profit.

我认为你谈到的奈特的资本主义案例是基于这样一种理念，即面对不确定性采取行动的能力可以创造利润。

And it should, because taking risks should be rewarded.

它应该如此，因为承担风险应该得到回报。

So this idea that taking risks in the face of uncertainty should create profit, and that becomes a justification, the ethics of capitalism.

因此，在不确定性面前承担风险应该创造利润的想法成为了一种理由，即资本主义的道德规范。

Can you just speak to that?

你能简单谈谈吗？

Yeah.

是的。

1:22:26 So Knight is talking about where does profit come from?

那么奈特说的是利润从哪里来？

And to his mind, it comes from the entrepreneurial function and the risk-taking function.

在他看来，它来自于创业功能和冒险功能。

And so he kind of weaves that into why capitalism works best and why it’s the most effective allocation machine and why it assigns responsibility in a way he believes that a socialist system never could.

因此，他将这一点融入了为什么资本主义运作得最好，为什么它是最有效的分配机器，以及为什么它以他认为社会主义制度永远无法做到的方式分配责任。

1:22:51 Now, Knight though is not a booster of capitalism.

现在，奈特并不是资本主义的支持者。

It could be in part because he’s just a darkly pessimistic kind of depressive guy.

部分原因可能是因为他只是一个悲观、抑郁的人。

And so he’s afraid capitalism is going to collapse and socialism or fascism is going to take over, or communism.

所以他担心资本主义会崩溃，社会主义或法西斯主义或共产主义会接管。

And so he kind of descends into darkness there.

所以他在那里陷入了黑暗。

Friedman as the more optimist believes with Hayek, that you can develop a different approach to capitalism that would preserve the price system, preserve allocation, but build in social supports, build in a social minimum, things like this.

弗里德曼作为更乐观的人相信哈耶克，你可以开发一种不同的资本主义方法，它可以保留价格体系，保留分配，但建立社会支持，建立社会最低限度，诸如此类。

1:23:25 But there’s a moment in his career where he’s really struggling to figure out, how do I make this case for capitalism?

但在他的职业生涯中，有一个时刻他真的很难弄清楚，我该如何为资本主义辩护？

And basically the whole conservative movement or people who we later call the conservative movement are struggling to make this case.

基本上整个保守派运动或我们后来称为保守派运动的人都在努力证明这一点。

And he starts thinking about what makes capitalism work is that if you put forth effort, you get a reward.

他开始思考资本主义之所以运转的原因是，如果你付出努力，你就会得到回报。

So then you could say, well, people get what they deserve under capitalism.

那么你可以说，好吧，人们在资本主义下得到了他们应得的。

1:23:47 But then he kind of stops and he says, “that’s not really true, because we’re born with such different endowments and there’s a huge quotient of luck.

但随后他停了下来，说道：“这并不是真的，因为我们生来就有如此不同的天赋，而且运气的比例很大。

So some people are just in the right position and some people aren’t.

所以有些人处于正确的位置，而有些人却没有。

So if I say capitalism is moral because people get what they deserve, that’s not really true.” And he also kind of has an ethical reaction, which he ends up calling an aesthetic reaction.

因此，如果我说资本主义是道德的，因为人们得到了他们应得的，那并不是真的。”他也有一种道德反应，他最终称之为审美反应。

He’s kind of like, it just doesn’t feel right to say that.

他有点像，只是感觉这样说不太合适。

And so he struggles for a while with, what do I say?

所以他纠结了一段时间，我该说什么？

And then he basically says, “capitalism, it can’t be the core.

然后他基本上说，“资本主义，它不可能是核心。

Discipline of the market, can’t be the core to your ethics, it has to be something else.” So that’s when he will decide it’s freedom, it’s individual freedom.

市场纪律不能成为道德的核心，它必须是其他东西。”所以到那时他就会决定这是自由，这是个人自由。

That’s really the ethical core.

这确实是道德的核心。

And capitalism makes individual freedom possible, because capitalism is dedicated to maximizing that.

资本主义使个人自由成为可能，因为资本主义致力于最大化个人自由。

1:24:38 And so the defense of capitalism comes through freedom.

因此，捍卫资本主义是通过自由来实现的。

And at his stage in history, he’s able to set aside nice worry about inequality and say, when I look at the data, and this is true for the macro data at mid-century, incomes are actually converging.

在他所处的历史阶段，他能够抛开对不平等的担忧，并说，当我查看数据时，收入实际上正在趋同，对于本世纪中叶的宏观数据来说也是如此。

And also if you look historically, if a country goes from say, a more feudal, agrarian society to a more market-based society, incomes will converge.

而且，如果你回顾历史，如果一个国家从一个更加封建的农业社会转变为一个更加市场化的社会，收入就会趋同。

Now and then they might start to diverge.

有时他们可能会开始出现分歧。

But Friedman’s in the moment when he’s seeing the convergence.

但弗里德曼正处于看到这种融合的时刻。

1:25:11 And so that’s what he’s really focused on.

这就是他真正关注的事情。

So he believes he can justify capitalism through the ethic of freedom.

因此他相信他可以通过自由伦理来证明资本主义的合理性。

And he also believes that inequality is a problem that can be addressed through specific policies, and it’s not a fundamental feature of capitalism.

他还认为，不平等是一个可以通过具体政策解决的问题，并不是资本主义的基本特征。

In other words, he doesn’t see capitalism as an engine of inequality the way that Frank Knight did and the way that maybe some critics on the left would.

换句话说，他并不像弗兰克·奈特（Frank Knight）以及一些左翼批评家那样将资本主义视为不平等的引擎。

How did he conceive of freedom?

他是如何构想自由的？

1:25:36 So individual freedom, economic freedom, political freedom, civil freedom, what was the tension, the dynamic between those different freedoms for him?

那么个人自由、经济自由、政治自由、公民自由，对他来说这些不同的自由之间的张力和动力是什么？

So he really begins focusing on economic freedom.

所以他真正开始关注经济自由。

1:25:47 And he says it’s really important to focus on economic freedom because in the United States we don’t value it enough.

他说，关注经济自由非常重要，因为在美国，我们对经济自由的重视程度不够。

By economic freedom he means the ability to keep what you’ve earned, the ability to make decisions about your business, the ability to make decisions about the work that you do.

他所说的经济自由是指保留你所赚取的收入的能力、对你的业务做出决定的能力、对你所做的工作做出决定的能力。

So this will translate into things like, there shouldn’t be a minimum wage.

因此，这将转化为诸如不应该设立最低工资之类的事情。

He believes the minimum wage has bad social effects, but he also believes you should be free to accept a job at a wage that you yourself have determined is acceptable to you.

他认为最低工资会产生不良的社会影响，但他也认为你应该可以自由地接受一份你自己认为可以接受的工资的工作。

And there should be very minimal regulation questions around safety and other things, because the market will ultimately, if you create an unsafe product, it won’t sell.

关于安全和其他问题的监管问题应该非常少，因为如果你创造出不安全的产品，市场最终将不会出售。

And that’s sort of your incentive.

这就是你的动力。

1:26:35 So he really centers economic freedom because he thinks especially, and he’s really speaking from his vantage point in the universities and speaking to the kind of liberal consensus of the ’50s and ’60s, he thinks economic freedom has been undervalued in the American context.

所以他确实以经济自由为中心，因为他特别思考，而且他确实是从他在大学的有利位置说话，并针对 50 年代和 60 年代的自由主义共识说话，他认为经济自由在美国背景下被低估了。

So he really wants to push that forward.

所以他真的很想推动这一进程。

He’s really kind of taking political freedom for granted.

他确实认为政治自由是理所当然的。

1:26:55 Now later in his career when he becomes famous, he’s traveling the world, he spends time in Chile, and this country is now being ruled by a dictator, Augusto Pinochet, who starts introducing economic freedom, but there’s no political freedom.

现在，在他的职业生涯后期，当他成名时，他环游世界，在智利度过了一段时间，这个国家现在由独裁者奥古斯托·皮诺切特统治，他开始引入经济自由，但没有政治自由。

And Milton Friedman believes eventually these two things are going to go together.

米尔顿·弗里德曼相信这两件事最终会结合在一起。

He tells Pinochet, “you’ve got economic freedom, and eventually it’s going to mean political freedom.” Pinochet is like, “okay, fine, not really interested in that.

他告诉皮诺切特，“你已经获得了经济自由，最终这将意味着政治自由。”皮诺切特说：“好吧，好吧，对此不太感兴趣。

I want to know what I should do about inflation.”

我想知道我应该对通货膨胀采取什么措施。”

1:27:24 But then when Milton Friedman leaves Chile, he is attacked and vilified for having been a supporter.

但当米尔顿·弗里德曼离开智利时，他因曾是支持者而受到攻击和诽谤。

It’s interpreted that he’s a supporter of the regime, which he’s not, but he realizes he has talked too much about economic freedom and he hasn’t talked enough about political freedom.

人们认为他是该政权的支持者，但他不是，但他意识到自己对经济自由谈论得太多，而对政治自由谈论得还不够。

He’s kind of assumed political freedom, because he’s come from the American context.

他有点假定的政治自由，因为他来自美国背景。

So then he starts recalibrating them and saying, you know what?

然后他开始重新校准它们并说，你知道吗？

If you don’t have political freedom, you’re never going to be able to hold on to economic freedom.

如果没有政治自由，你就永远无法保持经济自由。

So he sees that they need to go together and they don’t naturally go together.

所以他认为他们需要一起去，但他们并不自然地一起去。

And so he starts to become more clear in talking about political freedom.

因此，他在谈论政治自由时开始变得更加清晰。

1:28:01 Now let’s fast-forward to the end of his life, and he’s witnessing the emergence of what we call the Asian tiger.

现在让我们快进到他生命的尽头，他正在见证我们所说的亚洲虎的出现。

So capitalist economies that are doing very well, but they don’t have political freedom.

因此，资本主义经济表现得很好，但他们没有政治自由。

But then he observes, you don’t have political freedom, in that you can’t vote in a free and fair election, but they also don’t have a Stasi, they don’t have a KGB.

但随后他观察到，你没有政治自由，因为你不能在自由公正的选举中投票，但他们也没有斯塔西，他们没有克格勃。

They’re not hauling people off for their wrong opinions.

他们不会因为人们的错误观点而将他们拉走。

So then he says they have something called civic freedom.

然后他说他们有一种叫做公民自由的东西。

And so he kind of defines this third sphere, civic freedom, of debate, discussion, interpersonal relations, but you can’t be political.

所以他定义了第三个领域，即公民自由、辩论、讨论、人际关系，但你不能是政治性的。

1:28:38 So this is a late in life edition.

所以这是一个晚年版本。

I don’t think it’s fully theorized.

我认为这还没有完全理论化。

I think what it shows is that during the Cold War, he very much believed economic and political freedom, capitalism and freedom, democracy, the United States, capitalism, this all went together.

我认为这表明在冷战期间，他非常相信经济和政治自由，资本主义和自由，民主，美国，资本主义，这一切都是在一起的。

And he starts to see at the end of his life the emergence of different social systems that are using market trading and allocation, but aren’t giving people similar freedoms.

在他生命的尽头，他开始看到不同的社会体系的出现，这些体系正在使用市场交易和分配，但没有给予人们类似的自由。

And he’s kind of puzzling over that.

他对此有点困惑。

1:29:07 Now, he always believes that China will democratize, and he thinks China’s on the path to democratization, in part because Chile does democratize.

现在，他始终相信中国会民主化，他认为中国正走在民主化的道路上，部分原因是智利确实实现了民主化。

Eventually Pinochet has voted out and it’s become a democratic capitalist and very prosperous country.

最终皮诺切特投票下台，它成为一个民主资本主义和非常繁荣的国家。

And he thinks that’s exactly what’s happening in China.

他认为这正是中国正在发生的事情。

He sees Tiananmen and he doesn’t live long enough to get to where we are now in which doesn’t look like political or civic freedom is coming to China anytime soon.

他看到了天安门事件，但他的寿命还不够长，无法到达我们现在所处的位置，而中国似乎不会很快实现政治或公民自由。

And he did oppose the dual-track system of China, meaning the market is bottom-up, the government and China’s top-down and you can’t have both.

他确实反对中国的双轨制，这意味着市场是自下而上的，政府和中国是自上而下的，不能两者兼得。

He thought you couldn’t have both.

他认为你不能两者兼得。

Yeah.

是的。

He thought eventually the market would triumph.

他认为市场最终会取得胜利。

Well, that’s a really powerful idea to say, okay, maybe there’s not political freedom, but just hold on to the economic freedom and eventually that’s going to give political freedom.

嗯，这是一个非常有力的想法，好吧，也许没有政治自由，但只要坚持经济自由，最终就会带来政治自由。

1:29:51 Is that correct to say, start to work on the economic freedom and the political freedom piece will take care of itself?

这样说是否正确，开始致力于经济自由，政治自由就会水到渠成？

That’s what he believed.

这就是他所相信的。

1:30:10 That’s what he believed, yeah.

他就是这么相信的，是的。

I think it’s more complicated than that.

我认为事情比这更复杂。

The people who gain out of a system of economic freedom could decide to collude in a system where there isn’t political freedom.

从经济自由体系中获益的人们可能会决定在一个没有政治自由的体系中进行共谋。

That’s certainly a scenario.

这当然是一个场景。

But again, that’s that core idea of freedom and that core belief that people want freedom and that people are drawn to freedom.

但这又是自由的核心理念，也是人们想要自由以及人们被自由所吸引的核心信念。

Just to go back to Frank Knight a little bit, he wrote an essay called The Ethics of Competition, he had the metaphor that economic life is a game.

稍微回顾一下弗兰克·奈特，他写了一篇名为《竞争伦理》的文章，他有一个比喻：经济生活是一场游戏。

1:30:34 And then maybe that extends to society as a whole, like the entirety of it is a competitive game.

然后也许这会延伸到整个社会，就像整个社会都是一场竞争游戏一样。

And Milton Friedman, I think, adapted some of this, appreciated some of this.

我认为米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）改编了其中的一些内容，欣赏了其中的一些内容。

Can you speak to this metaphor?

你能说说这个比喻吗？

Yeah.

是的。

1:30:55 I think what the metaphor of the game does is it asks you, okay, well what are the rules then?

我认为游戏的隐喻是问你，好吧，那么规则是什么？

And let’s focus on the rules that keep the game going.

让我们关注让游戏继续进行的规则。

So he didn’t use the concept of an infinite game, but I think that’s an interesting one, a game that all the players are in and keep going again and again and again.

所以他没有使用无限游戏的概念，但我认为这是一个有趣的游戏，所有玩家都参与其中并一次又一次地继续下去。

1:31:13 And so that helped Knight along with Hayek shift from the allocation question, who’s getting what?

因此，这帮助奈特和哈耶克摆脱了分配问题，即谁得到了什么？

Are things allocated fairly?

物品分配是否公平？

To the more structural question of what are the rules of the game that we need to keep this system going?

对于更具结构性的问题，我们需要什么游戏规则来保持这个系统的运转？

And so for a while that led to the discussion of monopoly.

因此，有一段时间，这引发了关于垄断的讨论。

Well, we need rules against concentration or we need the rule of law.

好吧，我们需要反对集中的规则，或者我们需要法治。

Everyone needs to be treated equally.

每个人都需要被平等对待。

People need to know what they’re up against.

人们需要知道他们面临的是什么。

And then going back to monetarism, the core of monetarism is a rule.

然后回到货币主义，货币主义的核心是规则。

Friedman called it a monetary growth rule.

弗里德曼称之为货币增长规则。

1:31:55 And so again, what keeps the economic game going is a rule about how much the money grows, that everybody knows.

再说一遍，让经济游戏继续下去的是货币增长多少的规则，这是每个人都知道的。

Nobody’s guessing, nobody’s changing the rules to help their side or to help the people they’re friendly with.

没有人会猜测，没有人会改变规则来帮助自己一方或帮助与​​他们友好的人。

We all know it’s there, it’s clear, it’s easy.

我们都知道它就在那里，它很清楚，也很容易。

And so that emphasis on rules I think really has a through line.

因此，我认为对规则的强调确实是贯穿始终的。

It goes into Hayek’s competitive order, and then it goes into the monetary growth rule.

它进入哈耶克的竞争秩序，然后进入货币增长规则。

And then today, monetary policy makes use of monetary policy rules.

而今天，货币政策利用了货币政策规则。

We have not abandoned discretion, but rules are used as a heuristic or a check, and those come out of freedman’s thinking.

我们并没有放弃自由裁量权，但规则被用作启发或检查，而这些来自弗里德曼的思考。

1:32:38 And so it’s something…

所以这是……

It’s really profound, and it was always counterposed to discretion, which Friedman worried would be subject to capture or political corruption.

它确实意义深远，而且总是与自由裁量权相对立，弗里德曼担心自由裁量权会受到俘虏或政治腐败的影响。

If you had discretion in policymaking or if you had discretion in these very big areas, then people would stop competing against each other in a market and they would turn their attention to getting control of the rules or the rule makers.

如果你在政策制定方面有自由裁量权，或者如果你在这些非常大的领域有自由裁量权，那么人们将停止在市场上相互竞争，他们会将注意力转向控制规则或规则制定者。

So if there’s clear transparent rules, then you’re free to play the game.

因此，如果有明确透明的规则，那么你就可以自由地玩游戏。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

But then depending on the rules, the game can turn out the equilibrium that it arrives at might be different.

但根据规则，游戏达到的均衡可能会有所不同。

1:33:15 So that speaks to the mechanism design, the design of the rules.

这就涉及到机制设计、规则设计。

Yeah.

是的。

1:33:26 And that was again, to go back to the idea separating new liberalism or neoliberalism from classical liberalism was more of a focus on what are the rules that are needed?

再说一遍，回到将新自由主义或新自由主义与古典自由主义分开的想法，更多地关注需要什么规则？

What is the competitive order that we want to set out?

我们想要制定什么样的竞争秩序？

How do we design in social safeguards?

我们如何设计社会保障？

How do we think about it?

我们如何看待这个问题？

1:33:45 And so that shift towards monetary policy and focusing on stable monetary growth, that becomes really important in the post-’70s era, is one of the basic rules of how capitalist economies should function.

因此，转向货币政策并关注稳定的货币增长，这在 70 年代后变得非常重要，是资本主义经济如何运作的基本规则之一。

And it becomes really important because they see the example of say countries most notably in Latin America where monetary rules weren’t followed and different governments played politics with their currencies, and that created huge upheaval and huge social loss, economic loss, just economic disaster.

这变得非常重要，因为他们看到了一些国家的例子，尤其是拉丁美洲国家，这些国家不遵守货币规则，不同的政府利用其货币玩弄政治，这造成了巨大的动荡和巨大的社会损失、经济损失，甚至是经济灾难。

So my friend, she’s a poker player, philosopher of sorts, great human being, she has a podcast called Win-Win that everybody should listen to.

所以我的朋友，她是一位扑克玩家、哲学家、伟大的人，她有一个名为“双赢”的播客，每个人都应该收听。

1:34:21 And the whole purpose of the podcast and her whole way of being in spirit is to find win-win solutions.

播客的全部目的和她的整个精神方式都是为了找到双赢的解决方案。

So do you think of economic life as having such win-win solutions?

那么您认为经济生活有这样的双赢解决方案吗？

So being able to find rules where everybody wins, or is it always going to be zero-sum?

那么能够找到每个人都赢的规则，还是永远都是零和游戏？

I definitely believe in win-win, but with a big asterisk, you can have win-win, but it can feel like win-lose, which is, it’s not just are people getting more, it has a lot to do with do people feel they’re getting more, and do people feel they’re getting what’s fair and equal?

我绝对相信双赢，但是有了一个大星号，你可以实现双赢，但它可能感觉像双输，也就是说，这不仅仅是人们得到更多，这与人们是否感觉他们得到更多，以及人们是否感觉他们得到公平和平等有很大关系？

1:35:06 So you could have a situation, for instance, if you look at the history of going back to Chile, it has steady growth, steady income growth, steady diminution of inequality, and a high level of discontent within the society and a high level of belief that the society is corrupt and unfair.

所以你可能会遇到这样的情况，例如，如果你回顾一下智利的历史，它的经济增长稳定，收入稳定增长，不平等现象稳定减少，社会内部高度不满，人们高度相信社会腐败和不公平。

And that’s what matters, how people feel about it, how people perceive it, it matters.

这就是重要的，人们如何看待它，人们如何看待它，这很重要。

And we saw this recently, you can’t just come out with a bunch of statistics and tell people you’re winning in this game if they feel like they’re losing.

我们最近看到了这一点，你不能只是拿出一堆统计数据，告诉人们你在这场游戏中获胜，如果他们觉得自己输了。

1:35:44 So that goes to all the non-rational factors and all the comparative factors that people have when they think about where they are vis-a-vis other people in society.

因此，当人们思考自己与社会中其他人的关系时，所有的非理性因素和所有的比较因素都是如此。

So we’re just incredibly social creatures.

所以我们只是令人难以置信的社会生物。

We’re incredibly attuned to our status to rising and falling to where we sit vis-a-vis others.

我们对自己地位的上升和下降以及我们与他人坐在一起的位置有着难以置信的适应。

And so that absolutely has to be attended to.

所以这绝对是必须要注意的。

It can’t just be an economic analysis.

这不仅仅是经济分析。

That’s so interesting that the experience of the economy is different than the reality of the economy.

有趣的是，经济的体验与经济的现实是不同的。

1:36:09 On the topic of corruption, I think the reality of corruption versus the perception of corruption is really important in a lot of these nations.

关于腐败的话题，我认为腐败的现实与腐败的看法在许多国家中非常重要。

You take Ukraine for example, the perception of corruption has a big impact on the economy.

以乌克兰为例，腐败观念对经济有很大影响。

You don’t want to invest.

你不想投资。

You’re very cautious as a business person.

作为一个商人，你非常谨慎。

The reality of corruption can be way different than the actual perception.

腐败的现实可能与实际的看法有很大不同。

But if narratives stay cold, it’s a self-fulfilling prophecy, that it has a big effect on the psychology of the people involved.

但如果叙事保持冷淡，那就是一个自我实现的预言，它会对所涉及的人们的心理产生很大的影响。

It’s interesting.

这很有趣。

Yeah.

是的。

1:36:48 This goes back to Keynes’s analysis of the great depression.

这可以追溯到凯恩斯对大萧条的分析。

If people won’t invest, if they’re spooked, if the investing classes are spooked, you could be in real trouble.

如果人们不愿意投资，如果他们感到害怕，如果投资阶层感到害怕，那么你可能就会遇到真正的麻烦。

And in some ways, this simple analysis of the problem and proposal of a solution was enough to restore eventually the path to academic prosperity, right?

在某些方面，这种对问题的简单分析和解决方案的提出足以最终恢复学术繁荣的道路，对吗？

That’s Franklin Roosevelt, “nothing to fear, but fear itself.” The sense of we know we have a future, we have optimism, then you believe in it.

这就是富兰克林·罗斯福，“没什么可害怕的，只有害怕本身。”我们知道我们有未来，我们有乐观精神，然后你就相信它。

1:37:19 And to go back to thinking about money, money works because we all believe in it.

回到金钱的思考，金钱之所以有效，是因为我们都相信它。

It’s a form of social trust, and it’s a form of belief and faith in our society and in the other people in it.

这是社会信任的一种形式，是对我们的社会和社会中其他人的一种信仰和信心的形式。

And when that breaks down, the money system will break down as well.

当这种情况崩溃时，货币体系也将崩溃。

Is there something that Milton Friedman said and thought about how to control the psychology of humans at scale?

米尔顿·弗里德曼是否说过并思考过如何大规模控制人类心理？

No.

不。

1:37:42 What’s interesting is he does talk, especially in his later work, he says, we have fiat currency.

有趣的是他确实说话了，尤其是在他后来的工作中，他说，我们有法定货币。

And this is an experiment.

这是一个实验。

And we don’t know how it’s going to turn out and it’s turning out okay right now, but we’ve always had a commodity-based or backed currency of some form or another.

我们不知道结果会如何，现在结果还不错，但我们一直拥有某种形式的基于商品或支持的货币。

And this is the first time.

而这还是第一次。

And so who really knows?

那么谁真正知道呢？

So far so good.

到目前为止，一切都很好。

1:38:09 And he also is very attuned, it’s interesting in his later writings when he’s thinking about this too, sure, I could design a monetary system that would be different, but when I look at history, I see that monetary systems have always say incorporated the role of the state.

他也非常适应，在他后来的著作中，当他也在思考这个问题时，很有趣，当然，我可以设计一个不同的货币体系，但当我回顾历史时，我发现货币体系总是说纳入了国家的角色。

Because it’s so important to people.

因为它对人们来说太重要了。

And so therefore, my theoretical designs really have to be tempered by what I’ve actually seen happen in history.

因此，我的理论设计确实必须根据我在历史上实际看到的情况进行调整。

So maybe we could speak to this tension between how much government intervention is okay for Milton Friedman.

因此，也许我们可以谈谈米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）可以接受多少政府干预之间的紧张关系。

1:38:33 So he was against minimum wage, but he was for guaranteed minimum income.

所以他反对最低工资，但他支持有保障的最低收入。

Can you explain actually the difference between the two?

您能实际解释一下两者之间的区别吗？

Yeah.

是的。

1:38:48 So this was one of the discoveries I made in my research.

这是我在研究中的发现之一。

I found a paper from 1938.

我找到了一篇 1938 年的论文。

He wrote advocating what we would call today a universal basic income, a minimum income.

他写道，提倡我们今天所说的全民基本收入，即最低收入。

And he basically sees this as part of the effort to create a new liberalism.

他基本上认为这是创建新自由主义努力的一部分。

And he basically says, we have advanced societies, we have prosperous societies.

他基本上说，我们拥有先进的社会，我们拥有繁荣的社会。

We have decided in keeping with our morals and our ethics that people should not be starving in an advanced society like this.

我们决定，根据我们的道德和伦理，人们不应该在这样的先进社会中挨饿。

The question is how are we going to make that happen?

问题是我们如何实现这一目标？

1:39:19 And he ended up believing the best thing to do was to put a floor under everybody.

他最终相信最好的办法就是为每个人提供支持。

And he said, you can get that based on your income.

他说，你可以根据你的收入得到这个。

If you have a lot of income, you don’t get it.

如果你有很多收入，你就得不到它。

If you have a little income, you might get a little bit of it.

如果你有一点收入，你可能会得到一点。

If you have no income, you get enough of it.

如果你没有收入，那你就够了。

And he believed in the beginning, you should base that on what was required to buy food.

他一开始就相信，你应该根据购买食物的要求来确定。

That would be kind of an objective.

这将是一个目标。

You could objectively determine the nutrition and the price of food.

您可以客观地确定食物的营养和价格。

1:39:47 And so that for him…

所以对于他来说……

It’s important, he says it’s keeping with a liberal polity because it’s not intervening in the price system, it’s not intervening in economic relations.

他说，这很重要，这与自由政体保持一致，因为它不干预价格体系，也不干预经济关系。

And it does not, in his view, require a bureaucracy to administer.

在他看来，这不需要官僚机构来管理。

It is not, in his view, require that you qualify for it by virtue of being in a protected class.

在他看来，这并不要求你因为属于受保护阶层而有资格获得这一资格。

You just get it as kind of part of your membership in this general citizenship body.

您只需将其作为您在这个普通公民机构中的会员资格的一部分即可获得。

1:40:15 And so that to him was really different than a minimum wage because it did not interfere with the work bargain.

因此，对他来说，这与最低工资确实不同，因为它不会干扰工作讨价还价。

His belief about minimum wages was specifically that it priced out unskilled labor.

他对最低工资的信念特别是它会排除非熟练劳动力。

That what an unskilled laborer had to offer was a willingness to work for a very low wage.

非熟练工人必须提供的是愿意以极低的工资工作。

And if you set the minimum wage too high, businesses instead of hiring that higher-priced labor would not hire.

如果你把最低工资定得太高，企业就不会雇佣那些价格更高的劳动力，而不是雇佣那些价格更高的劳动力。

Or we could think of today, they put in an electronic checkout or something like this, where you don’t actually need the labor.

或者我们今天可以想到，他们安装了电子结帐或类似的东西，而你实际上并不需要劳动力。

1:40:50 So he really believed the minimum wage had that perverse incentive.

所以他确实相信最低工资有这种不正当的激励作用。

Now, this is a live debate on what minimum wages do, and there seems to be a level at which you can set them that they can not have that perverse effect, and in fact can kind of create people with more spending money, that then powers the economy.

现在，这是一场关于最低工资作用的现场辩论，似乎你可以将最低工资设定在一个水平上，以确保它们不会产生这种不良影响，而且实际上可以让人们拥有更多的花钱，从而为经济提供动力。

So he had a very sort of clinical analysis of that rather than an empirical one or a really abstract analysis.

因此，他对此进行了一种非常临床的分析，而不是经验分析或真正抽象的分析。

1:41:16 But the minimum income is fascinating because it seems very leftist to us.

但最低收入令人着迷，因为它对我们来说似乎非常左派。

But what it is it’s purely individualistic.

但这纯粹是个人主义的。

And it never really happened because it was so purely individualistic.

但它从未真正发生过，因为它纯粹是个人主义的。

Because American social policy typically identifies this group of people is deserving and we’ll give them benefits.

因为美国的社会政策通常认为这群人是值得的，我们将为他们提供福利。

So the classic example is soldiers, veterans.

典型的例子就是士兵、退伍军人。

Another example is mothers raising dependent children.

另一个例子是母亲抚养受抚养的孩子。

These people deserve money.

这些人值得钱。

The rest of you, you better go out and work.

剩下的人，还是出去工作吧。

And so Friedman’s proposal, it really caught on in the ’60s.

弗里德曼的提议在 20 世纪 60 年代真正流行起来。

It ultimately went nowhere, but it was no litmus test, no income analysis, just we’re going to give you this much, everyone’s going to get this much.

它最终毫无进展，但这不是试金石，没有收入分析，只是我们会给你这么多，每个人都会得到这么多。

And he decided once mass…

他决定一旦弥撒……

1:42:00 …

……

this much.

就这么多。

Everyone’s going to get this much.

每个人都会得到这么多。

And he decided once mass taxation had come in, you could do it through taxes, and you could just rebate people who didn’t pay income taxes got a rebate that actually came to pass.

他决定，一旦实行大规模征税，你就可以通过税收来实现这一目标，你可以给那些没有缴纳所得税的人提供退税，而这实际上已经实现了。

It’s the earned income tax credit, and it’s considered extremely successful by policy analysts.

这就是劳动所得税抵免，政策分析师认为它非常成功。

It does what it’s supposed to do.

它做了它应该做的事情。

It’s not that expensive.

没那么贵。

And so I see that as a paradigm of his thinking in that instead of creating a bureaucracy that does some form of redistribution or instead of trying to intervene in the market for labor or the market for something else, the market for housing, you provide a cash grant that people spend for themselves.

因此，我认为他的思想的一个范例是，不要创建一个进行某种形式的再分配的官僚机构，也不要试图干预劳动力市场或其他东西的市场，即住房市场，而是提供人们为自己花费的现金补助。

1:42:42 And so interestingly, that’s what happened in the emergency situation of COVID, right?

有趣的是，这就是在新冠肺炎紧急情况下发生的事情，对吗？

That’s exactly what people did.

人们正是这么做的。

They followed that model.

他们遵循了这个模式。

We just get money out quick.

我们只是快速取钱。

And there’s a lot of discussions still about UBI is something that should be done.

关于 UBI 是否应该做的事情仍有很多讨论。

And I think it’s always going to be hard to pull off because I think Americans and their elected representatives don’t want to provide a universal benefit.

我认为这总是很难实现，因为我认为美国人和他们选出的代表不想提供普遍的福利。

They want to provide a targeted benefit because they believe there’s a moral component here.

他们希望提供有针对性的福利，因为他们相信这里有道德成分。

And Friedman advanced a policy that was really abstract and really it was devoid of judgment.

弗里德曼提出的政策非常抽象，而且缺乏判断力。

It was pure and beautiful in that way but utterly impractical.

那样是纯洁而美丽的，但完全不切实际。

And it really focused on not interfering with the market and the signals that the market provides.

它真正关注的是不干扰市场和市场提供的信号。

1:43:23 He was really against price controls for the same kind of reason.

出于同样的原因，他确实反对价格管制。

Yeah, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

1:43:32 You could say, “Okay, but how does this not interfere with the market, right?

你可以说，“好吧，但这怎么能不干扰市场，对吧？

If you provide people with a minimum income, won’t that change their incentives to work, et cetera?” There’s a big body of research on this.

如果你为人们提供最低收入，这不会改变他们的工作动机等吗？”关于这一点有大量的研究。

Most of it seems to show, that one, it’s way better than the current benefits cliff where you have to not work to get your benefits.

大多数情况似乎都表明，这比当前的福利悬崖要好得多，在当前的福利悬崖中，你必须不工作才能获得福利。

And any incentive impact on working seems to be much lower than would be expected.

而且任何激励对工作的影响似乎都比预期的要低得多。

But I’ll let the economists and the social scientists fight that one out and figure it out empirically.

但我会让经济学家和社会科学家来解决这个问题，并通过经验来找出答案。

Hopefully, we should be able to.

希望我们能够做到。

Yeah, there’s been a bunch of studies.

是的，已经有很多研究了。

1:44:08 It’s interesting even just how you conduct studies like this, how you do these kinds of experiments, especially if you’re empirically minded because a lot of the studies I saw is they’re pretty small, so how do you make big conclusions about how to run the world, how to run the economies from such small studies?

即使你如何进行这样的研究，如何进行此类实验，也很有趣，特别是如果你有经验主义思维，因为我看到的很多研究都很小，所以你如何从如此小的研究中得出关于如何管理世界、如何管理经济的重大结论？

It’s all a fascinating experiment of ideas, and it’s also inspiring to see individuals and maybe small groups of individuals like the Chicago School of Economics to shake out what we believe and how we run the world.

这都是一次令人着迷的思想实验，看到个人，或许还有像芝加哥经济学院这样的小团体，改变我们的信仰和我们管理世界的方式，这也很鼓舞人心。

Yeah.

是的。

Inspiring.

鼓舞人心。

1:44:51 You call Milton Friedman, The Last Great Conservative, maybe to be a little bit controversial and make bold statements that get everybody excited, but what do you mean by that, and what makes it great conservative?

你称米尔顿·弗里德曼为“最后一位伟大的保守派”，也许是为了有点争议，并发表大胆的言论，让每个人都兴奋不已，但你这是什么意思？是什么使它成为伟大的保守派？

So I was really thinking of that in terms of American political identities and particularly the 20th-century conservative movement, which people are always saying, “This isn’t conservatism.” And I’m saying, “Yes, in America, conservatism is different.

所以我真的是从美国的政治身份，特别是20世纪的保守主义运动的角度来思考这一点，人们总是说，“这不是保守主义。”我想说的是，“是的，在美国，保守主义是不同的。

1:45:09 It looks different.

看起来不一样。

It feels different.” Conservatism in America builds in a big component of what we could call libertarianism, anti-government ideas and critics will say, but conservatism is about conserving institutions and practices, and it has a role for the state and an organic community.

感觉不一样了。”美国的保守主义建立在我们所谓的自由主义、反政府思想和批评者所说的自由主义的一个重要组成部分，但保守主义是关于保护机构和实践的，它对国家和有机社区发挥着作用。

But in the United States, it’s always had since the 20th century also this anti-statist, let’s let the market rip.

但在美国，自 20 世纪以来一直存在这种反国家主义者，让市场撕裂吧。

It’s not worry about what the market does to establish traditions.

人们并不担心市场会如何建立传统。

The market is our tradition.

市场是我们的传统。

Capitalism is our tradition, so that was really synthesized.

资本主义是我们的传统，所以它是真正综合的。

1:46:03 Many people were there, but Friedman and the importance of his books Free to Choose Capitalism, and Freedom, the television series he did.

很多人都在场，但弗里德曼和他的书《自由选择资本主义》和他制作的电视连续剧《自由》的重要性都在场。

All of these were core components of this American conservative synthesis as it evolved.

所有这些都是美国保守派综合体演变过程中的核心组成部分。

And I really see that as having broken down.

我确实认为这种情况已经崩溃了。

It is scattered into different pieces and we don’t know where they’re going to come back together again.

它分散成不同的碎片，我们不知道它们会在哪里再次聚集在一起。

But Friedman’s push for open global markets, unfettered free trade.

但弗里德曼推动开放的全球市场、不受约束的自由贸易。

It’s getting pushback on both the left and the right.

它受到左翼和右翼的抵制。

That I think is just a major sign that both parties have turned away from this vision.

我认为这只是双方都放弃这一愿景的一个重要迹象。

I don’t know what they’ve turned to, but the way that Friedman brought these pieces together, I think that political moment has passed.

我不知道他们转向了什么，但从弗里德曼将这些碎片整合在一起的方式来看，我认为政治时刻已经过去了。

So that’s what I was trying to talk about with the book title.

这就是我想通过书名来讨论的内容。

1:46:57 There’s another way though in which I think of him also as a conservative, which is that within the field of economics, he went back to this older idea, the quantity theory of money, and said, “This still has value.

不过，我认为他也是一个保守派的另一种方式是，在经济学领域，他回到了这个古老的想法，即货币数量论，并说：“这仍然有价值。

This can be applied in the modern day.

这可以应用在现代。

It is something to teach us.” And he pushed back against this trend towards mathematicization, so he kept writing books.

这是值得教给我们的东西。”他抵制了这种数学化的趋势，因此他继续写书。

You can still pick up a Friedman book and read it, where’s lots of economics articles and output, it’s unreadable unless you’re in the field.

你仍然可以拿起一本弗里德曼的书来阅读，里面有很多经济学文章和成果，除非你在现场，否则它是无法阅读的。

1:47:26 And so I think in that way, he was trying to conserve methodologically and intellectually the traditions of the field, the work that he and particularly Anna Schwartz did, that literal counting of things and deep analysis of data from the field that was the completely unfashionable and his time.

所以我认为，从这个意义上说，他试图在方法论和智力上保留该领域的传统，他尤其是安娜·施瓦茨所做的工作，对事物的字面计数和对来自该领域的数据的深入分析，这在他的时代是完全不流行的。

Now, we’ve gone back to it with big data and with computers, but he helped bring that forward and preserve that tradition.

现在，我们又用大数据和计算机回到了这个话题，但他帮助推动了这一点并保留了这一传统。

So I think of him intellectually as a conservative, if you think of the mode of his thought.

因此，如果你考虑一下他的思维模式，我认为他在理智上是一个保守派。

And so, what makes a great conservative is one who takes those older ideas and makes them fresh for a new time period.

因此，伟大的保守派之所以成为伟大的保守派，是因为他能够采纳那些旧的想法，并使它们在新的时期焕然一新。

I think that’s exactly what he did.

我认为他就是这么做的。

You’ve also spoken about the fact that the times when he was out in public, there was more of an open battle of ideas where conservatism often had William F.

你还谈到了这样一个事实，即当他出现在公共场合时，更多的是一场公开的思想斗争，其中保守主义常常让威廉·F·肯尼迪 (William F.

1:48:09 Buckley.

巴克利。

He had a more vibrant, deep debate over ideas where it seems less deep now.

他对一些想法进行了更加激烈、深入的辩论，但现在看来不那么深入了。

That is the thing that it’s hard, especially for the students I teach today, to be like.

这就是很难做到的事情，尤其是对于我今天教的学生来说。

1:48:36 There were arguments about ideas, and conservatives won a bunch of them.

人们对想法进行了争论，保守派赢得了很多争论。

And that happened in the ’70s and late 1960s to 1970s when one set of arguments was about economics.

这发生在 20 世纪 70 年代以及 20 世纪 60 年代末到 1970 年代，当时一系列争论都是关于经济学的。

Like, “Okay, this idea of stimulating the economy by spending more.

就像，“好吧，这个通过增加支出来刺激经济的想法。

It has a downside.

它有一个缺点。

The downside’s called inflation, and the downside’s called too much regulation.

缺点是通货膨胀，缺点是监管过多。

And you’ve gone too far in bottling up the actual sources of economic growth and dynamism, and we have to let those free.”

你们在压抑经济增长和活力的实际来源方面做得太过分了，我们必须让它们自由。”

1:49:14 In social policy, there was also a critique.

在社会政策方面，也存在批评。

The Great Society had all these ideas of ending poverty, and people came and analyzed them and said, “The programs aren’t helping.

伟大社会有所有这些消除贫困的想法，人们过来分析这些想法并说：“这些计划没有帮助。

In some ways, you’ve actually created engines to trap people in poverty because you’ve given them a benefit and said, if they actually start to work, they lose the benefit.

在某些方面，你实际上创造了让人们陷入贫困的引擎，因为你给了他们福利，并说，如果他们真的开始工作，他们就会失去福利。

You’ve created all these perverse incentives,” and these ideas were fought out.

你创造了所有这些不正当的激励措施，”这些想法都被争论了。

They were empirical.

他们是经验性的。

They were controversial, and they were based on really deep research and really deep argumentation.

它们是有争议的，并且它们基于非常深入的研究和非常深入的论证。

And so it seems that era has passed.

看来那个时代已经过去了。

It seems we’re driven much more quickly by moods rather than thought-through ideas.

我们似乎更容易受到情绪的驱动，而不是经过深思熟虑的想法。

Right now, it seems the ideas they follow the political mood and try to put together the underpinning of it where it really was the opposite for much of the 20th century.

现在，他们的想法似乎追随政治情绪，并试图将其基础整合在一起，而这在 20 世纪的大部分时间里实际上是相反的。

It does seem like we lead with emotional turmoil and the ideas follow versus lead with the ideas and the emotion of the masses respond.

看起来确实是我们以情绪混乱为主导，而思想跟随而不是以思想和群众的情感响应为主导。

Right, exactly.

对，完全正确。

1:50:20 So, if we think of the evolution of conservatism, it was a whole set of ideas that was crafted, refined.

因此，如果我们思考保守主义的演变，就会发现它是一整套经过精心设计和提炼的思想。

The 1950s, 1960s, 1970s really found their emotional standard-bearer, translator, salesperson in Ronald Reagan, who incidentally had been following these ideas as they developed and had been honing his ability to express them and apply them politically.

20世纪50年代、1960年代、1970年代真正在罗纳德·里根身上找到了他们的情感旗手、翻译家、推销员，他顺带一直在追随这些思想的发展，并一直在磨练自己表达这些思想和在政治上应用它们的能力。

It’s a very opposite if we look at Trump as the political definer of the era.

如果我们将特朗普视为这个时代的政治定义者，那就完全相反了。

There’s a set of ideas, but it was more attitudes, impulses, vibes, and the ideas are coming after that, trying to figure out how they patch on.

有一系列的想法，但更多的是态度、冲动、共鸣，而这些想法是在这之后出现的，试图弄清楚它们是如何衔接的。

So it’s interesting to watch, to see that difference.

所以观察这种差异很有趣。

And I hazard that a lot of it just has to do with the immediacy of the media environment we’re in, and it’s just power of the media messages to get out so fast.

我敢说，这很大程度上与我们所处的媒体环境的即时性有关，而媒体信息的传播速度如此之快，正是媒体信息的力量。

What do you think Milton Friedman would say about Donald Trump about him winning in 2024, and just in general, this political moment?

对于唐纳德·特朗普 (Donald Trump) 在 2024 年获胜，以及总体而言，在这个政治时刻，您认为米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman) 会对他有何评价？

I think he would love DOGE.

我想他会喜欢DOGE。

1:51:28 I think that’s goes without saying.

我认为这是不言而喻的。

He’s hooked on that part.

他对那部分很着迷。

I think he would focus on that part.

我认为他会专注于那部分。

1:51:33 I think he would really love it.

我想他真的会喜欢的。

He would be very alarmed by the idea of tariffs and very alarmed by the return to protectionism.

他会对关税的想法感到非常震惊，并对保护主义的回归感到非常震惊。

I think he believed that part of what made the world peaceful in the second half of the 20th century, as opposed to during World War II, was the world was knit together more by trade.

我认为他认为，与二战期间相比，20 世纪下半叶世界之所以和平，部分原因在于世界更多地通过贸易联系在一起。

And that was the great hope that if people traded with each other, they wouldn’t fight.

这是一个巨大的希望，即如果人们互相交易，他们就不会打架。

He was also a proponent of the free movement of capital.

他也是资本自由流动的支持者。

He would absolutely oppose this idea that Nippon Steel wasn’t allowed to invest in the United States.

他绝对反对不允许新日铁在美国投资的想法。

I think he would struggle, and he wholeheartedly embraced Reagan, and he worked to minimize the parts of the Reagan legacy he didn’t like.

我认为他会挣扎，他全心全意地拥抱里根，他努力减少里根遗产中他不喜欢的部分。

I think he would find it harder to embrace Trump because he’s not of that style, and he just had a different style.

我认为他会发现更难接受特朗普，因为他不是那种风格，他只是有不同的风格。

But I’m guessing he would’ve come around through the…

但我猜他会通过……

I think he would just say, “Okay, we have a chance to reduce the size of government.”

我想他只会说：“好吧，我们有机会缩小政府规模。”

1:52:38 At the same time, the spending plans of the Trump administration are not fiscally conservative in any way, and that was his concern, was not so much with debt but with the feeling that there’s no mechanism to stop the growth of government, that it just grows and grows and grows.

与此同时，特朗普政府的支出计划在财政上一点也不保守，这就是他所关心的，与其说是债务问题，不如说是他感觉没有任何机制可以阻止政府的增长，政府只会不断增长、增长、增长。

And so he ended up believing even deficits aren’t so bad because they make politicians cautious, he thought, about continuing to spend, but I have to believe he would be concerned about the potential threats to the US currency’s position as the world’s reserve currency with increased levels of debt and spending.

因此，他最终相信，即使是赤字也没有那么糟糕，因为他认为，赤字会让政客们对继续支出持谨慎态度，但我不得不相信，随着债务和支出水平的增加，他会担心美元作为世界储备货币的地位面临的潜在威胁。

1:53:21 He was concerned about low interest rates.

他对低利率感到担忧。

He died, I think it’s 2004, 2006, but it was in the beginning, he didn’t see the zero low bound, but he saw low interest rates.

他去世了，我想是2004年、2006年，但那是在一开始，他没有看到零下限，但他看到了低利率。

And he said, “This isn’t necessarily good.

他说：“这不一定是好事。

Everyone’s talking about low interest rates as if they’re good, but there should be a price on capital.

每个人都在谈论低利率，好像它们很好，但资本应该有一个价格。

There should be a price on this.

这应该有一个价格。

It shouldn’t be so low.” And so he had still the macro insights that I think are important.

不应该这么低。”所以他仍然有我认为很重要的宏观洞察力。

You wrote The Wall Street Journal essay titled How Inflation Ended Neoliberalism and Re-elected Trump, so can we weave that into this discussion in terms of inflation and Trump?

您在《华尔街日报》上撰写了题为《通货膨胀如何结束新自由主义并重新当选特朗普》的文章，那么我们可以将其纳入通货膨胀和特朗普的讨论中吗？

1:53:52 What’s the main idea of the essay?

论文的主要思想是什么？

So, the main idea is looking back and saying, “So today, we have been living in a world where people have been focused on monetary policy, steady monetary policy, free trade, reducing regulation.

所以，主要思想是回顾过去并说：“所以今天，我们生活在一个人们一直关注货币政策、稳定货币政策、自由贸易、减少监管的世界。

1:54:09 This is all called the neoliberal era.” And my argument was a lot of that arose was driven by inflation, so we have Milton Friedman predict inflation in 1967.

这就是所谓的新自由主义时代。”我的观点是，其中很多都是由通货膨胀驱动的，所以我们让米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman) 预测 1967 年的通货膨胀。

It starts breaking out in the 1970s.

它在 20 世纪 70 年代开始爆发。

Britain and the United States, and every institution was designed around stable prices.

英国和美国的每一个机构都是围绕稳定的价格而设计的。

And once inflation broke out, prices were no longer stable.

一旦通货膨胀爆发，物价就不再稳定。

So, for example, tax rates weren’t inflation-adjusted.

例如，税率没有经过通货膨胀调整。

So if your income went up because of inflation, you might bump from a low tax rate to an extremely high tax rate, but you don’t actually have more money, on paper you have more money, but everything costs more, so you don’t actually have more money and your taxes have gone up.

所以如果你的收入因为通货膨胀而增加，你可能会从低税率上升到极高的税率，但你实际上并没有更多的钱，在纸面上你有更多的钱，但一切的成本都更高，所以你实际上没有更多的钱，你的税收也增加了。

That kicks off the taxpayer revolt.

这引发了纳税人的反抗。

1:55:14 There’s a whole shift of American corporations towards focusing on financial investments because the tax breaks they used to get for depreciation for building new factories are not inflation-adjusted, so they no longer pay off in an inflationary environment.

美国公司已经完全转向专注于金融投资，因为他们过去为建造新工厂而获得的折旧税收减免并未经过通货膨胀调整，因此他们不再在通货膨胀环境中获得回报。

And then when Paul Volcker comes in early 1980s, and starts fighting inflation really pushes up interest rates to bring down inflation.

然后，当保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 在 20 世纪 80 年代初出现并开始对抗通货膨胀时，确实推高了利率以降低通货膨胀。

And that completely reorders the banking sector because banks had statutory legal limits on the interest they could charge.

这彻底改变了银行业的秩序，因为银行对其收取的利息有法定的法律限制。

And once general market interest rates exceeded that, it was proliferation of new financial forms to take advantage of that.

一旦一般市场利率超过这个水平，就会出现新的金融形式来利用这一点。

1:55:58 So my point was the era we live in was ushered in by inflation, and then everyone turned against all the formulations we had and said, “Well, these have hollowed out our industrial base.

所以我的观点是，我们生活的时代是由通货膨胀带来的，然后每个人都反对我们拥有的所有配方并说：“好吧，这些已经掏空了我们的工业基础。

We’ve got too much immigration.

我们的移民太多了。

We’ve got too much economic openness.

我们的经济开放程度太高了。

We need to reshore.

我们需要重新上岸。

We need to focus.

我们需要集中注意力。

We need to turn against all these things.

我们需要反对所有这些事情。

We need to spend more.

我们需要花更多的钱。

We’ve disinvested.” And the net result of that turning away, I argued, is people forgot about inflation.

我们已经撤资了。”我认为，这种转变的最终结果是人们忘记了通货膨胀。

They really forgot it could ever exist.

他们真的忘记了它可能存在。

And you had a whole set of theories on the left, modern monetary theory, that basically said, “We don’t really need to worry about inflation.

左派有一整套现代货币理论，基本上说，“我们真的不需要担心通货膨胀。

We can spend what we want.” And lo and behold, inflation came back.

我们可以想花什么就花什么。”你瞧，通货膨胀又卷土重来了。

And so my argument is, that has now opened the door to the presidency of Donald Trump, which is potentially a deeply transformative moment that will change the size and shape of government, that may change our foreign policy profoundly, that may change our immigration policy, that may change the demographics of our country, all of that, and my thesis is that that’s all been made possible by inflation.

所以我的观点是，这现在为唐纳德·特朗普担任总统打开了大门，这可能是一个深刻的变革时刻，将改变政府的规模和形式，可能会深刻地改变我们的外交政策，可能会改变我们的移民政策，可能会改变我们国家的人口结构，所有这一切，我的论点是，这一切都是通过通货膨胀成为可能的。

1:57:12 And so the great mistake of the past years was to forget how fundamental inflation was to the rise of the last political order and to profoundly underestimate how much inflation would change the current political order.

因此，过去几年的巨大错误就是忘记了通货膨胀对于上一个政治秩序的兴起有多么根本性的影响，并且严重低估了通货膨胀对当前政治秩序的改变程度。

So I just think it’s one of these things…

所以我只是认为这是其中之一......

This is why I think you should study history because if you had studied history, you would be aware of this.

这就是为什么我认为你应该学习历史，因为如果你学过历史，你就会意识到这一点。

And it’s so easy for people to forget, just like the banks forgot that interest rates could ever go up.

人们很容易忘记这一点，就像银行忘记利率可能会上涨一样。

They got so used to it, and it’s only a 10, 15-year thing, but to them, that seems like forever.

他们已经习惯了，这只是10年、15年的事情，但对他们来说，这似乎是永远的。

So I really do believe what history teaches you to do is just have a much vaster scope in your vision and then take into account the possibilities of so many things happening that are different than what’s happening today.

所以我真的相信历史教你做的就是拥有更广阔的视野，然后考虑到许多与今天所发生的事情不同的事情发生的可能性。

And so I just hope we don’t forget about inflation entirely, but here’s the thing, it is quite a strong chance that Trump’s policies will initiate even worse inflation, and then they will prove to be his undoing, so the ironies of inflation could be continuing.

所以我只是希望我们不要完全忘记通货膨胀，但事情是这样的，特朗普的政策很有可能引发更严重的通货膨胀，然后它们将被证明是他的毁灭，所以通货膨胀的讽刺可能会继续下去。

Like you said, Milton Friedman would be a big fan of DOGE, so if he was still here today and rolled with Elon Musk and Vivek, what advice would he give?

就像你说的，米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）会是 DOGE 的忠实粉丝，所以如果他今天还在这里并与埃隆·马斯克（Elon Musk）和维韦克（Vivek）合作，他会给出什么建议？

1:58:21 What do you think he would focus on in terms of where to cut, how to cut, how to think about cutting?

你认为他会在哪里剪辑、如何剪辑、如何思考剪辑方面重点关注什么？

His signature policy move, I talk about this, is taking the price mechanism and trying to make that into the policy.

他的标志性政策举措，我谈到这一点，就是采用价格机制并试图将其纳入政策。

1:58:39 And that seems obvious to us today, but in the era that he came in, so there would be rent controls, let’s take away rent controls, let’s let housing prices set themselves, or he was very against national parks, I actually think that national parks are good, so I hope that DOGE people don’t take this up, but that rather than an allocation to fund the national parks, they should be funded by the revenue that they bring in when people visit them.

这对今天的我们来说似乎是显而易见的，但在他进来的时代，会有租金管制，让我们取消租金管制，让房价自行决定，或者他非常反对国家公园，我实际上认为国家公园很好，所以我希望DOGE的人不要接受这个问题，但是他们应该由人们参观国家公园时带来的收入来资助，而不是拨款来资助国家公园。

And so I think he was always looking to, let’s let prices make the decisions here, so I think that would be one of the key pieces.

所以我认为他一直在寻求，让价格在这里做出决定，所以我认为这将是关键部分之一。

1:59:23 The other thing I think he’d really be thinking about, he wrote about this a lot, about occupational licensure and barriers to entry.

我认为他真正考虑的另一件事是，他写了很多关于职业执照和进入壁垒的文章。

And he felt like one of the worst things that government does, and sometimes it’s private entities that do this, is create barriers to entry to protect industries and markets.

他觉得政府所做的最糟糕的事情之一就是设置准入壁垒以保护行业和市场，有时是私人实体这样做。

So he talked about this in the case of the medical profession, which I think is actually not a good example because I think we all have a collective investment in having medical doctors be highly trained.

所以他以医疗行业为例谈到了这一点，我认为这实际上不是一个很好的例子，因为我认为我们都在让医生接受高度培训方面进行了集体投资。

But so, for instance, you could look at nail technicians or haircutting.

但是，例如，您可以看看美甲师或理发师。

There’s often these licensing requirements, or there’s a big kerfuffle.

通常存在这些许可要求，或者存在很大的混乱。

I think it’s DC passed a law that to run a childcare center you have to have a college degree.

我认为华盛顿特区通过了一项法律，规定要经营托儿中心，你必须拥有大学学位。

Well, what does that do?

嗯，那有什么作用呢？

That disenfranchises a whole bunch of would-be entrepreneurs who don’t happen to have a college degree but probably could be really good at this particular business.

这剥夺了一大群潜在的企业家的权利，他们碰巧没有大学学位，但可能非常擅长这个特定的业务。

So I think he would be saying, “Look out for where private interests have used the state to protect themselves and clear away those types of barriers and let competition through prices guide outcomes.”

所以我认为他会说，“留意私人利益在哪里利用国家来保护自己，并清除这些类型的障碍，让通过价格的竞争来指导结果。”

So, open up for more competition and allow for more signals from the market to drive decisions, and so on-

因此，开放更多的竞争并允许来自市场的更多信号来推动决策，等等-

Yes.

是的。

…

……

2:00:39 which would actually naturally lead to cutting a lot of the bureaucracy of government.

这实际上自然会导致政府大量官僚机构的削减。

I think the other thing he would probably be arguing for is, again, going back to the design of the minimum income or the negative income tax, that there’s a way he…

我认为他可能会争论的另一件事是，再次回到最低收入或负所得税的设计，他有一种方法……

2:00:46 Ultimately, he decided to run it through the tax system.

最终，他决定通过税收系统来管理它。

The government’s already collecting this data, they already have your information, and they can just send the money out through the system rather than having a social bureaucracy where you have to come in person, you have to fill out forms, you have to document.

政府已经在收集这些数据，他们已经有了你的信息，他们可以通过系统把钱寄出去，而不是有一个社会官僚机构，你必须亲自来，你必须填写表格，你必须记录。

Do you own a car?

你有车吗？

What’s your income?

你的收入是多少？

Who lives in the household?

谁住在家里？

And his analysis of that, who that really benefited, was the bureaucracy that processed that paper, that implemented those norms, and that if you could pull that away, you could get help out where it was needed much quicker without having this drag of people doing unproductive work of administering these systems, so trying to cut administrative overhead.

他对此的分析，真正受益的是处理该文件、实施这些规范的官僚机构，如果你能把它去掉，你就可以更快地在需要的地方获得帮助，而不必让人们做管理这些系统的非生产性工作，从而试图削减管理开销。

And what he didn’t have then, which we have now, is the technology that we have and the ability to send benefits out via smartphone or just to move so much faster and to handle information on a mass scale so much faster.

他当时没有，而我们现在拥有的是我们拥有的技术以及通过智能手机发送福利的能力，或者只是更快地行动并更快地处理大规模信息的能力。

It’s painful but I think one of the big things you can do is just that, which is digitalize.

这很痛苦，但我认为你能做的最重要的事情之一就是数字化。

2:01:58 I don’t know if that’s a word, but just convert everything into where the speed of signal can be instantaneous.

我不知道这是否是一个词，但只是将一切转换为信号速度可以瞬时的地方。

So there’s no paperwork.

所以没有任何文书工作。

It goes immediately, and then that means that the pricing signals and all these things are just immediately available to people.

它立即生效，这意味着人们可以立即获得定价信号和所有这些信息。

That seems to be the low-hanging fruit, government IT systems could be vastly improved among.

这似乎是唾手可得的成果，政府 IT 系统可以得到极大的改进。

But that would result again with a lot of people getting fired.

但这又会导致很多人被解雇。

2:02:33 And I think somebody submitted a question for me saying, “What are your thoughts as a person who cares about compassion?

我想有人向我提出了一个问题，“作为一个关心同情心的人，你有什么想法？

What are your thoughts about government employees, which there’s a lot of that are going to be hurt by DOGE?” It is always a really difficult question.

你对政府雇员有什么看法，他们中有很多人会受到 DOGE 的伤害？”这始终是一个非常困难的问题。

A lot of people get fired to make room for a new system that’s going to lead to a lot of pain.

很多人被解雇是为了给新系统腾出空间，这会带来很多痛苦。

There is going to be a lot of pain.

将会有很多痛苦。

2:03:05 I don’t know what the solution is.

我不知道解决办法是什么。

I think that’s also part of why Friedman favored a minimum income.

我认为这也是弗里德曼赞成最低收入的部分原因。

He talked about it being countercyclical, in other words, when things were really bad, the spending level on it would naturally go up.

他谈到这是反周期的，换句话说，当情况非常糟糕时，这方面的支出水平自然会上升。

This is what economists today call an automatic stabilizer.

这就是当今经济学家所说的自动稳定器。

And then, when it’s not needed, the cost of it goes down.

然后，当不需要它时，它的成本就会下降。

Maybe there’s a way to sweeten it with honey and have people take buyouts or things like that.

也许有一种方法可以用蜂蜜使它变甜，然后让人们买断或类似的东西。

That would certainly be a way better way to go.

这肯定是一个更好的方法。

I did a podcast with Javier Milei.

我和哈维尔·米雷一起做了一个播客。

2:03:41 He has consistently praised Milton Friedman and cited him as one of his inspirations.

他一直赞扬米尔顿·弗里德曼，并将他视为自己的灵感来源之一。

So what do you think Milton Friedman would say about what’s going on in Argentina and what Javier Milei’s trying to do in Argentina?

那么，您认为米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）对于阿根廷正在发生的事情以及哈维尔·米莱（Javier Milei）试图在阿根廷做什么会说些什么？

Yeah, I think he would appreciate it.

是的，我想他会很感激的。

2:03:56 I think Milei is a much more of an Austrian-inspired thinker, but I think he definitely appreciates Friedman.

我认为米雷更像是一位受奥地利学派启发的思想家，但我认为他绝对欣赏弗里德曼。

And on the macro level, Friedman always understood it’s really painful to treat inflation, but the more you put it off, the harder it is.

在宏观层面上，弗里德曼始终明白，治疗通胀确实很痛苦，但越拖延，就越难。

So I think he would be trying to get him as he’s doing to just message that short-term pain, long-term gain.

所以我认为他会试图让他像他现在所做的那样，只是传达短期痛苦，长期收益的信息。

I think he’d be very supportive.

我认为他会非常支持。

I think he’d be thrilled to see, also, that Milei is very good at explaining these abstract ideas and putting his policies in the framework of the bigger picture.

我认为他也会很高兴看到米雷非常擅长解释这些抽象想法并将他的政策置于更大的框架中。

That was really meaningful to Friedman.

这对弗里德曼来说非常有意义。

I don’t know how politically persuasive it is overall.

我不知道它总体上的政治说服力有多大。

Milei’s very intense.

米莱非常激烈。

He doesn’t have the same gifts of salesmanship and setting people at ease that say someone like Ronald Reagan had, but it seems to be that’s what his country was calling for right now.

他不像罗纳德·里根那样具有推销才能和让人们放松的天赋，但这似乎正是他的国家现在所需要的。

Yeah, he is more chainsaw-less, like warm blanket.

是的，他不再需要电锯，就像温暖的毯子一样。

2:04:56 Javier recollects this line from Milton Friedman.

哈维尔回忆起米尔顿·弗里德曼的这句话。

I don’t know if this is accurate, but “If you strive for equality over freedom, you often get neither.

我不知道这是否准确，但是“如果你争取平等而不是自由，你往往什么都得不到。

But if you strive for freedom, you often get both.” You think there’s truth to this?

但如果你争取自由，你常常会两者兼得。”你认为这是事实吗？

I think on the big picture, definitely.

我认为从大局来看，绝对是这样。

2:05:16 We’ve seen focusing too much on equality can be…

我们已经看到，过度关注平等可能会……

Because equality is such an alluring word, it can lead you to downgrade all kinds of other things that are really important.

因为平等是一个如此诱人的词，它可能会导致你贬低所有其他真正重要的事情。

But I really think it depends on how you’re defining freedom.

但我真的认为这取决于你如何定义自由。

The statement is too big and too broad, right?

这个声明太大了，太宽泛了，对吗？

So, if by freedom you mean not having to pay taxes if you’re successful, that can have all kinds of knock-on effects.

因此，如果你所说的自由是指如果你成功了就不必缴税，那么这可能会产生各种连锁反应。

The idea that people are able to prosper when they’re educated.

人们接受教育就能够繁荣的想法。

Where is education going to come from?

教育从哪里来？

How is that going to be paid for and supported?

如何支付和支持？

And again, to go back to Knight, if you’re generating too much inequality or people are feeling that you’re generating too much inequality, sometimes they value that more than they value freedom, and so I think there has to be more of a balance, and it’s hard to make such global statements.

再说一次，回到奈特，如果你造成了太多的不平等，或者人们觉得你造成了太多的不平等，有时他们更看重这一点，而不是看重自由，所以我认为必须有更多的平衡，而且很难做出这样的全球声明。

You have to break them down into what actually do you mean.

你必须将它们分解成你真正想要表达的意思。

2:06:27 But again, Milei is coming from a very different context, a very different country that has seen so much upheaval, so much government intervention, so much inflation, so much political turmoil.

但同样，米莱来自一个非常不同的背景，一个非常不同的国家，经历了如此多的动荡、如此多的政府干预、如此多的通货膨胀、如此多的政治动荡。

He’s probably thinking about it differently than Friedman was thinking about it.

他的想法可能与弗里德曼的想法不同。

Yeah, there was, there probably still is, a real threat of hyperinflation.

是的，恶性通货膨胀的真正威胁曾经存在，可能仍然存在。

2:06:44 There seems to be a very high level of corruption or the capacity for corruption, so it’s a really messy situation.

腐败程度或腐败能力似乎非常高，所以情况确实很混乱。

So Javier Milei likes to recollect this great line from Milton Friedman that, “If you strive for equality over freedom, you often get neither.

因此，哈维尔·米莱喜欢回忆米尔顿·弗里德曼的这句名言：“如果你争取平等而不是自由，你往往什么都得不到。

But if you strive for freedom, you often get both.” Do you think there’s a truth to this?

但如果你争取自由，你常常会两者兼得。”你认为这是真的吗？

Yeah, in the macro, for sure.

是的，在宏观上，当然。

2:07:13 We’ve seen if you really put equality as your goal, it’s such a seductive ideal, and people believe in it so much that they can carry out horrible crimes in the name of equality.

我们已经看到，如果你真的把平等作为你的目标，这是一个如此诱人的理想，人们如此相信它，以至于他们可以以平等的名义犯下可怕的罪行。

But then, focusing on freedom, these words are too big, they’re so hard to define.

但说到自由，这些词太大了，很难定义。

And so I think you have to ask, “What is the freedom you’re talking about?” Right?

所以我认为你必须问：“你所说的自由是什么？”对吗？

If you’re talking about the freedom of ordinary people to be entrepreneurial, to make their own way, to start new things, to continue what they’re doing, to keep what they’ve earned, for sure, that can increase the equality overall.

如果你谈论的是普通人创业、走自己的路、开始新事物、继续他们正在做的事情、保留他们所赚取的东西的自由，那么当然，这可以增加整体的平等。

2:07:52 If you’re talking about lower taxes, if freedom is just a code for lower taxes, there has to be…

如果你谈论的是降低税收，如果自由只是降低税收的一个代码，那么就必须有……

Lower taxes, in general, great, but if you’re one of the top generators of wealth, there has to be some way to ensure that, say, education, right?

总的来说，降低税收固然很好，但如果你是最大的财富创造者之一，就必须有某种方法来确保这一点，比如教育，对吧？

People prosper when they’re well-educated, that’s when economies do better.

当人们受过良好教育时，他们就会繁荣，经济也会表现得更好。

Education is generally state-funded, and you need some way to support that and provide for those institutions that structure society that make competition possible.

教育通常是由国家资助的，你需要某种方式来支持教育，并为那些构建社会使竞争成为可能的机构提供支持。

So, I think it’s just a really broad statement, but again, Milei is coming from a really different context.

所以，我认为这只是一个非常广泛的陈述，但同样，米莱来自一个非常不同的背景。

He’s coming from the South American context, from such upheaval, such economic devastation in pursuit of the goal of equality that I think trying to rebalance with that emphasis on freedom, I definitely see where he is coming from.

他来自南美的背景，为了追求平等的目标，经历了如此的动荡和经济破坏，我认为试图通过强调自由来实现重新平衡，我绝对明白他来自哪里。

If we can pivot a little bit, we’ve talked about Reagan.

如果我们可以稍微转向一下，我们已经谈论了里根。

2:08:46 What are some interesting stories about how Milton Friedman navigated the Reagan and maybe even the Nixon administrations and how he was able to gain influence?

关于米尔顿·弗里德曼如何驾驭里根甚至尼克松政府以及他如何获得影响力，有哪些有趣的故事？

Well, the Nixon administration is an interesting case because…

嗯，尼克松政府是一个有趣的案例，因为……

2:09:00 So, I’ve been talking about inflation and the different consequences it had.

所以，我一直在谈论通货膨胀及其所产生的不同后果。

One consequence it had is that it began to undermine the Bretton Woods currency system that was established in the wake of World War II.

它的后果之一是它开始破坏二战后建立的布雷顿森林货币体系。

Now, Bretton Woods, what it did, basically, it ended up inadvertently putting the US dollar at the center of the world economic system.

现在，布雷顿森林体系，它所做的，基本上，最终无意中将美元置于世界经济体系的中心。

But under Bretton Woods, countries of the industrialized West agreed to trade their currency in set ratios that government set, so a franc was worth so many dollars or a German mark was worth so many francs, and then also under this system, countries could come to the United States, and they could trade the dollars that they held for gold because the US was on a modified gold standard.

但在布雷顿森林体系下，西方工业化国家同意按照政府设定的固定比率进行货币交易，因此一法郎值这么多美元，或者一德国马克值这么多法郎，然后也在这个体系下，各国可以来到美国，他们可以用他们持有的美元交换黄金，因为美国采用的是修改后的金本位制。

There was a ratio of gold to paper money.

黄金与纸币之间存在一定比例。

And so the system was set up and very quickly, most countries, the dollar was at the heart of it in that the converting into and out of dollars was really the mechanism of trade for many of these countries.

因此，这个体系很快就建立起来了，对于大多数国家来说，美元是其核心，因为美元的兑换实际上是许多国家的贸易机制。

2:10:08 So Friedman said, “What we should have is floating exchange rates.” This is an idea, again, of instead of having a top-down design of policy, an administered policy, we will have policies set by prices, and you should be able to trade currencies on an open market, they should trade, and they should fluctuate, and that would be fine.

所以弗里德曼说，“我们应该实行的是浮动汇率。”这又是一个想法，我们不再有自上而下的政策设计、管理政策，而是由价格制定政策，你应该能够在公开市场上交易货币，它们应该交易，它们应该波动，这样就很好。

Totally outlandish idea, but he was pinpointing the fact that Bretton Woods had an instability, and that instability began to emerge in the time of inflation.

这是一个完全古怪的想法，但他指出了布雷顿森林体系存在不稳定这一事实，而且这种不稳定是在通货膨胀时期开始出现的。

So you have more and more dollars being printed, they’re worth less and less.

因此，印制的美元越来越多，它们的价值却越来越低。

If European nations keep trading their currency for dollars, they’re going to be importing inflation into their own economies.

如果欧洲国家继续将本国货币兑换成美元，他们就会将通货膨胀带入本国经济。

So they say, “We don’t want these dollars.

所以他们说：“我们不需要这些美元。

We’d like some gold instead.” And they have the right to go to the treasury, send in an order, and get gold out.

我们想要一些黄金。”他们有权去金库，下达命令，取出黄金。

And so they start doing this more and more, and it becomes…

所以他们开始越来越多地这样做，结果就变成了……

It’s called the gold drain, and the United States starts running out of gold.

这被称为黄金流失，美国开始耗尽黄金。

2:11:16 They’re aware this is happening through the ’60s.

他们意识到这种情况在 60 年代正在发生。

They’re trying various things to fix it.

他们正在尝试各种方法来解决这个问题。

And when Nixon comes into office in ’68, Friedman sends him a memo, and it says, “This is going to be a real problem.” He says something like, “This is a running sore, and you have to lance it right away,” some very graphic-

当尼克松 68 年上任时，弗里德曼给他发了一份备忘录，上面写着：“这将是一个真正的问题。”他说，“这是一个流脓疮，你必须立即切开它，”一些非常形象的说法——

Very nice.

非常好。

…

……

2:11:44 metaphor, “otherwise it’s going to explode.” Nixon just files the memo away.

比喻“否则就会爆炸”。尼克松只是将备忘录归档。

Nixon loved people to think he was influenced by and following the wisdom of Milton Friedman, but he didn’t actually want to do that.

尼克松喜欢人们认为他受到米尔顿·弗里德曼的影响并追随他的智慧，但他实际上并不想这样做。

He just wanted the political benefit that came from it.

他只是想从中获得政治利益。

So then comes the moment where the US Treasury Department realizes we are going to run out of gold.

然后，美国财政部意识到我们的黄金即将耗尽。

What should we do?

我们应该做什么？

And everybody decamps to Camp David, and Nixon decides, we’re just going to stop redeeming currency for gold.

每个人都逃往戴维营，尼克松决定，我们将停止将货币兑换成黄金。

It’s called slamming the gold window shut.

这就是所谓的“关上金窗”。

Done.

完成。

And he also, at that same meeting, decides to institute price controls.

在同一次会议上，他还决定实行价格管制。

He does a whole bunch of stuff.

他做了一大堆事情。

It’s an emergency.

这是紧急情况。

He calls it the New Economic Plan, which is an unconscious echo of the Soviet New Economic Plan, so a problematic name, a problematic policy.

他称之为新经济计划，这是苏联新经济计划的无意识呼应，因此是一个有问题的名称，一项有问题的政策。

And Friedman is livid at the price controls, but he’s like, “Actually, it’s great that you close the gold window.

弗里德曼对价格管制感到愤怒，但他说：“实际上，关闭黄金窗口真是太好了。

Let’s go all the way to floating exchange rates.”

让我们一路走向浮动汇率。”

2:12:51 And this idea was heresy within the Treasury Department.

这个想法在财政部内部是异端邪说。

Everyone’s very committed to the idea of the gold standard convertibility possibility of the United States at the court, the financial system kind of hem and haw.

每个人都非常热衷于美国在法庭上实现金本位可兑换的可能性，金融体系也有些支吾其词。

But at this point, Friedman has a very close relationship with George Shultz, and George Shultz is a high-level appointee who will eventually, over the course of the Nixon administration, become the Treasury Secretary.

但在这一点上，弗里德曼与乔治·舒尔茨的关系非常密切，而乔治·舒尔茨是一位高层任命者，最终将在尼克松政府的过程中成为财政部长。

2:13:17 And so Friedman is feeding Shultz all his ideas about how we should move to floating exchange rates, how we shouldn’t try to reconstruct Bretton Woods and the people in Treasury…

因此，弗里德曼正在向舒尔茨提供他所有关于我们应该如何转向浮动汇率、我们不应该试图重建布雷顿森林体系和财政部人员的想法……

It’s funny because I read some of their accounts, and actually Paul Volcker is in the Treasury Department at this time, and he can sense that Friedman is in here somewhere, feeding his boss ideas.

这很有趣，因为我读了他们的一些账目，实际上保罗·沃尔克此时在财政部，他能感觉到弗里德曼就在这里的某个地方，为他的老板提供想法。

He doesn’t quite know.

他不太清楚。

And in the oral history, Shultz talks about this quite a bit, so at any rate, Friedman exerts this behind-the-scenes influence, and what Shultz does is just lets Bretton Woods fade away.

而在口述历史中，舒尔茨对此谈得不少，所以无论如何，弗里德曼发挥了这种幕后影响力，而舒尔茨所做的只是让布雷顿森林体系逐渐消失。

He doesn’t make grand pronouncements.

他不会发表宏大的声明。

It just slowly the world shifts to a regime of…

世界只是慢慢地转变为……的政权。

For a while, it was a regime of steady prices, and then they call it a steady regime of changing prices, or whatever.

有一段时间，这是一个稳定的价格制度，然后他们称之为一个稳定的价格变化制度，或者其他什么。

The language changes, the reality changes, and they end up where they are, so that’s a real measure of Friedman’s influence.

语言发生了变化，现实发生了变化，他们最终还是在原来的位置，所以这是弗里德曼影响力的真正衡量标准。

2:14:15 If there had been another economist in Shultz’s ear that said, “No, catastrophe is imminent.

如果有另一位经济学家在舒尔茨耳边说：“不，灾难即将来临。

We have to go back to Bretton Woods,” he probably would’ve worked harder.

我们必须回到布雷顿森林体系，”他可能会更加努力地工作。

The US government would’ve worked harder.

美国政府会更加努力。

And so that becomes one of these pieces of globalization.

因此，这成为全球化的其中之一。

And what people don’t realize is there used to be, in addition to these floating set capital ratios, you couldn’t bring capital in and out of different countries.

人们没有意识到的是，除了这些浮动设定的资本比率之外，过去你无法将资本带入和带出不同的国家。

You had to register.

你必须注册。

You couldn’t invest.

你无法投资。

Where all these rules and strictures and the falling of Bretton Woods really blows that all open.

所有这些规则和限制以及布雷顿森林体系的垮台确实让一切都变得开放。

It’s a precursor to globalization, so Friedman is right there.

这是全球化的先驱，所以弗里德曼就在那里。

2:14:49 Now, he’s very ambivalent about Nixon.

现在，他对尼克松的态度非常矛盾。

He sees that Nixon is not an honest person.

他看出尼克松不是一个诚实的人。

He thinks he’s very intelligent, and Nixon’s dream is to create a new centrist majority.

他认为自己非常聪明，尼克松的梦想是创造一个新的中间派多数。

So, he does many things to go back on his supposed economic principles and ideals.

因此，他做了很多事情来背离他所谓的经济原则和理想。

So Friedman does not like this.

所以弗里德曼不喜欢这样。

He doesn’t like the price controls.

他不喜欢价格管制。

He’s in communication with his old mentor, Arthur Burns, who’s now the Chair of the Federal Reserve.

他正在与他的老导师、现任美联储主席阿瑟·伯恩斯保持联系。

And Burns is basically doing everything wrong in monetary policy.

伯恩斯在货币政策方面基本上做错了所有事情。

And I describe this in the book in some detail, these anguished letters back and forth, and basically, as I see it, Burns doesn’t have a solid theory of inflation, and the more Friedman pushes him, it’s almost like Burns is willfully ignoring Friedman and doing the opposite of what Friedman says, so Burns is running a very loose monetary policy.

我在书中详细描述了这一点，这些痛苦的信件来来回回，基本上，在我看来，伯恩斯没有可靠的通货膨胀理论，弗里德曼越逼迫他，几乎就像伯恩斯故意无视弗里德曼并做与弗里德曼所说相反的事情，所以伯恩斯正在实行非常宽松的货币政策。

2:15:42 Inflation is quite considerable over the ’70s.

20世纪70年代的通货膨胀相当严重。

We were all spooked by…

我们都被吓到了……

What did it get to?

它得到了什么？

6%, something like that.

6%，类似的东西。

Recently for a very short time, this is inflation going over 10%, hovering at 8% for basically the whole decade of the ’70s, going up and down but with extremely elevated rates.

最近在很短的时间内，通货膨胀率超过了 10%，基本上在 70 年代的整个十年里都徘徊在 8% 的水平，上下波动，但利率极高。

And so, the Carter presidency largely follows foreign policies.

因此，卡特总统任期很大程度上遵循外交政策。

A big part of…

很大一部分…

2:16:00 The Carter presidency largely falls.

卡特的总统任期基本垮台。

Foreign policy is a big part of it, but the failure to tame inflation is part of it.

外交政策是其中很大一部分，但未能抑制通胀也是其中一部分。

And then Reagan comes in, and now Reagan loves Friedman and Friedman loves Reagan, very mutual feeling.

然后里根进来了，现在里根爱弗里德曼，弗里德曼也爱里根，非常有相互的感觉。

The Reagan administration creates an advisory economic board.

里根政府设立了一个经济顾问委员会。

Friedman’s on it.

弗里德曼对此很感兴趣。

He’s retired now.

他现在已经退休了。

He’s entering golden years, but he really has Reagan’s ear.

他正进入黄金岁月，但他确实能倾听里根的声音。

And here what he does is he convinces Reagan of his theory of inflation, which is inflation has been caused.

他所做的就是让里根相信他的通货膨胀理论，即通货膨胀已经造成。

It’s a monetary phenomenon that has been caused by bad monetary policy.

这是由不良货币政策引起的货币现象。

Inflation has an accelerating dynamic.

通货膨胀呈加速趋势。

The only way to end inflation is by really showing and signaling that government policy has changed.

结束通货膨胀的唯一方法是真正表明并发出政府政策已经改变的信号。

And when you do that, it’s very painful for a short amount of time, people will suffer, but then you will come out on the other side into stable prices, and this is what you need for economic prosperity.

当你这样做时，在短时间内会非常痛苦，人们会受苦，但随后你会在另一边看到稳定的价格，这就是经济繁荣所需要的。

2:16:58 So the man who implements this policy, Paul Volcker, he’s definitely influenced by Friedman, buys the big picture of Friedman.

因此，执行这项政策的人保罗·沃尔克（Paul Volcker）肯定受到弗里德曼的影响，他相信弗里德曼的大局。

He even buys Friedman’s specific technique of the monetary growth rule and of the focus on monetary aggregates, which Friedman has said, “Money matters, aggregates matter, and that’s what money is.” Pretty quickly Volcker finds that because of inflation and the financial deregulation in response to it, the aggregates don’t work the way Friedman said they would.

他甚至认同弗里德曼关于货币增长规则和关注货币总量的具体技巧，弗里德曼说过，“货币很重要，总量也很重要，这就是货币。”沃尔克很快发现，由于通货膨胀和随之而来的金融放松管制，总量并没有像弗里德曼所说的那样发挥作用。

And so the specific policy Friedman recommends, Volcker tries it for a year or so, doesn’t work super well.

因此，弗里德曼建议的具体政策，沃尔克尝试了一年左右，效果并不好。

But what does work is letting interest rates go high, go above inflation, to a point where both the general citizenry and the financial markets believe like, oh, they’re actually serious about inflation.

但真正有效的方法是让利率走高，高于通胀，直到普通公民和金融市场都相信，哦，他们实际上对通胀很认真。

And because we’ve had a decade of inflation with all these presidents saying, Ford, “We’re going to whip inflation now,” that monetary policy has lost credibility.

因为我们已经经历了十年的通货膨胀，所有这些总统都说，福特，“我们现在要抑制通货膨胀”，货币政策已经失去了可信度。

This is why people focus so much on credibility today, because once it’s lost, it’s really hard to get it back.

这就是为什么今天人们如此关注可信度，因为一旦失去它，就很难恢复。

And one way Volcker gets it back is interest rates over 20%.

沃尔克收回成本的方法之一就是利率超过 20%。

Unemployment very high, as high as 25% in construction sectors.

失业率非常高，建筑业高达25%。

And as this is happening, Milton Friedman is whispering in Reagan’s ear, “This is the right thing.

当这一切发生时，米尔顿·弗里德曼在里根耳边低声说道：“这是正确的事情。

Stay the course.

坚持到底。

This is going to work.” Now, interestingly, he hates Volcker or Volcker hates him, and Friedman will never give Volcker credit for this policy, but he will give Reagan credit for this policy.

这会起作用的。”现在，有趣的是，他讨厌沃尔克，或者沃尔克讨厌他，弗里德曼永远不会把这项政策归功于沃尔克，但他会把这项政策归功于里根。

But he owes credit himself for keeping Reagan from wobbling on this policy and just pushing it through.

但他自己也值得赞扬，因为他阻止了里根在这项政策上摇摆不定，并推动了它的实施。

And he also tells Reagan, very pragmatically, “You better do this now.

他还非常务实地告诉里根：“你最好现在就这样做。

You’ve got a four-year term.

你的任期为四年。

Do this in the first two years of your term.

在任期的头两年这样做。

Things will have turned around by 1984 when you run for reelection and you’ll benefit from it.” And that’s absolutely what happens.

到 1984 年，当你竞选连任时，情况将会发生转变，你将从中受益。”这绝对是发生的事情。

If we could take a small tangent, a question I have to ask about, since we mentioned Bretton Woods and maybe the gold standard, maybe just have a general discussion about this whole space of ideas, there’s a lot of people today that care about cryptocurrency.

如果我们能稍微切题一下，这是我必须问的一个问题，因为我们提到了布雷顿森林体系，也许还提到了黄金标准，也许只是对整个想法空间进行一般性讨论，今天有很多人关心加密货币。

2:18:56 What do you think that Milton Friedman would say about cryptocurrency and what role crypto might play in the economy, whether he would be for this idea against this idea, and if we could look at it for today, and also just 10, 100 years from now?

您认为米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman) 会对加密货币有何看法，以及加密货币在经济中可能扮演的角色，他是否会支持这个想法，反对这个想法，以及我们是否可以在今天以及 10、100 年后审视它？

There’s a clip, I think it’s in 1992, where people say, “Oh, Friedman predicted cryptocurrencies,” because he’s talking about how payments will eventually be electronic.

有一个片段，我想是在 1992 年，人们说，“哦，弗里德曼预测了加密货币”，因为他正在谈论支付最终将如何电子化。

2:19:34 So in some ways definitely, as he was looking at the computer and money, he knew these would come together in some way.

所以在某些方面，当他看着电脑和金钱时，他知道这些会以某种方式结合在一起。

I think he probably would see a use case for crypto.

我认为他可能会看到加密货币的用例。

He definitely would not buy the stronger forms, I think of crypto ideology in which we could be heading towards a future in which there’s many different currencies that compete or that are distributed or there’s a stateless currency.

他绝对不会购买更强大的形式，我认为在加密意识形态中，我们可能会走向一个未来，其中有许多不同的货币相互竞争或分布，或者存在无状态货币。

And he addresses this very, very clearly because Hayek’s Denationalization of Money, it’s a paper in the late ’70s.

他非常非常明确地解决了这个问题，因为哈耶克的《货币非国有化》是 70 年代末的一篇论文。

Hayek argues for this kind of competing currency model or regime.

哈耶克主张这种竞争性的货币模式或制度。

And so he’s responding to that.

所以他对此做出了回应。

He’s responding to people writing about free banking, and he basically says, “Look, even if you developed a variety of competing currencies, eventually society would converge on one.”

他是在回应那些谈论自由银行业务的人，他基本上是说，“看，即使你开发了多种相互竞争的货币，最终社会也会趋向于一种货币。”

2:20:33 And that’s because people just want one currency that they know.

那是因为人们只想要一种他们知道的货币。

They don’t want a bunch of different options.

他们不想要一堆不同的选择。

Even in places where there have been options to do that, they’ve been used very minimally.

即使在有选择的地方，它们的使用也很少。

And then he says, “Secondly, the state always steps in.” He says, “Technically, theoretically, it doesn’t have to.

然后他说，“其次，国家总是会介入。”他说：“从技术上、理论上来说，都不必这样做。

I could draw you a model.

我可以给你画一个模型。

I could tell you about how it could work without the state.

我可以告诉你在没有国家的情况下它是如何运作的。

But in actual reality, all human societies, through time and space, the state eventually becomes involved in the provision of money because it has so many knock-on effects to so many people.” So sure, I think he would, again, find a use case for crypto, think it’s interesting, but I don’t think he would see it as this is going to displace state money and we’re going to have a variety of distributed currencies.

但在现实中，所有人类社会，通过时间和空间，国家最终都会参与金钱的提供，因为它对这么多人产生了如此多的连锁反应。”所以当然，我认为他会再次找到加密货币的用例，认为这很有趣，但我认为他不会看到它，因为这将取代国家货币，而且我们将拥有各种分布式货币。

2:21:21 The other thing he really stresses is that a change in a monetary system, it only happens amid great, great crisis.

他真正强调的另一件事是，货币体系的改变只会发生在巨大的危机中。

So again, you see in countries where the state is not controlling the money well, that’s when people are more turning to crypto.

所以，你会看到，在国家不能很好地控制货币的国家，人们更多地转向加密货币。

But he says, because money is so fundamental, there is going to be so much political pressure on any country that gets the currency profoundly wrong that the government will fall and another one will replace it.

但他表示，由于货币是如此重要，任何一个货币政策严重错误的国家都会面临巨大的政治压力，导致政府垮台，而另一个政府将取而代之。

So if you look at episodes of hyperinflation, they don’t go on very long because they’re so upsetting to people.

因此，如果你观察一下恶性通货膨胀的情况，就会发现它们不会持续很长时间，因为它们让人们感到非常不安。

If we can go back in time, we’ve talked about it a bunch, but it’s still a fascinating time, the Great Depression.

如果我们能回到过去，我们已经谈论过很多次了，但这仍然是一个令人着迷的时期，大萧条。

2:21:57 University of Chicago, there’s these folks like Jacob Viner, Frank Knight, Henry Simons, all of these influenced the thinking of Milton Friedman.

芝加哥大学有雅各布·维纳、弗兰克·奈特、亨利·西蒙斯等人，他们都影响了米尔顿·弗里德曼的思想。

There’s this Room Seven situation at the University of Chicago.

芝加哥大学的七号房间就有这样的情况。

Just going back there, even just speaking almost philosophically, what does it take to explore ideas together, deliberate, argue in that space, and maybe there might be interesting stories about that time.

回到那里，即使只是近乎哲学地谈论，在那个空间里一起探索想法、深思熟虑、争论需要什么，也许那时可能会有有趣的故事。

It would just be interesting to understand how somebody like Milton Friedman forms.

了解像米尔顿·弗里德曼这样的人是如何形成的将会很有趣。

The seed is planted and the flower blooms.

种子种下，花朵绽放。

Yeah.

是的。

2:22:43 Yeah.

是的。

So he gets to University of Chicago, he makes fast friends, and in his third and fourth year, they become what I call them, the Room Seven gang.

于是他进入了芝加哥大学，结交了很多朋友，在第三年和第四年，他们成为了我所说的“七号房帮”。

So Room Seven is they find an old store room in the basement, they take it over, and that’s where they have their jam sessions.

七号房间是他们在地下室找到一个旧储藏室，他们接管了它，这就是他们举行即兴演奏会的地方。

And what made this world come together was Frank Knight.

让这个世界走到一起的是弗兰克·奈特。

There was a charismatic leader and there were a bunch of acolytes who clustered around him.

有一位魅力非凡的领袖，还有一群簇拥在他周围的侍从。

That I think was a key piece of the ingredient.

我认为这是成分的关键部分。

And then there was a sense that they were onto something that the rest of the economics field had forgotten or was rejecting.

然后有一种感觉，他们正在研究一些经济学领域其他人已经忘记或拒绝的东西。

So there was that sense of mission.

所以就有了使命感。

So that seems to have been, there was a formal education piece, and then there was a parallel education piece rooted in admiration for a thinker, a shared admiration.

看来，有一个正式的教育作品，然后有一个平行的教育作品，其根植于对思想家的钦佩，一种共同的钦佩。

And then what that led Friedman to do, what I found, syllabi that he had from non-economics courses, lists of books.

然后，这导致弗里德曼做了什么，我发现了什么，他从非经济学课程中获得的教学大纲，书籍清单。

2:23:43 And he’d written the prices of different ones he wanted to read.

他还写下了他想读的不同书籍的价格。

So he had John Stuart Mill, On Liberty, like 50 cents written in the margin.

所以他在页边空白处写了约翰·斯图尔特·米尔（John Stuart Mill）的《论自由》（On Liberty），就像 50 美分一样。

So he began to educate himself.

于是他开始自学。

He gave himself a parallel curriculum alongside this very formal economics curriculum.

除了非常正式的经济学课程之外，他还为自己开设了并行课程。

He started reading the traditions of political liberalism and then talking them through with friends and then developing a shared sense of mission.

他开始阅读政治自由主义的传统，然后与朋友们谈论它们，然后发展出共同的使命感。

And the incredible thing is, of those friends in the group, they scattered for like 10 years, and then they all came back together.

令人难以置信的是，群里的那些朋友，他们分散了大约10年，然后又都聚在一起了。

George Stigler, his great friend, was hired at Chicago.

他的好朋友乔治·斯蒂格勒受聘于芝加哥。

Aaron Director, who was his wife’s brother, was at Chicago.

亚伦·董事（AaronDirector）是他妻子的兄弟，当时在芝加哥。

So many of these people continued.

很多人都在继续。

He became Frank Knight’s colleague.

他成为弗兰克·奈特的同事。

So that was the base.

这就是基础。

That was what really grew him, that really profound peer group.

这才是真正让他成长的原因，那个真正意义深远的同龄人群体。

Now, the other piece I talk about a lot is Friedman was a collaborator, an open-minded collaborator, and he had incredible connections with economists who were women.

现在，我经常谈论的另一篇文章是弗里德曼是一位合作者，一位思想开放的合作者，他与女性经济学家有着令人难以置信的联系。

2:24:43 And he basically found first in the figure of Anna Schwartz, later in the figure of this group of women who were his wife’s friends, this untapped pool of talent.

他基本上首先在安娜·施瓦茨（Anna Schwartz）的身上发现了这一尚未开发的人才库，后来又在他妻子的朋友这群女性中发现了这一点。

And so he immersed himself in this whole other world of consumption economics and that resulted in his more technical work on a theory of the consumption function, which is the theory of permanent income.

因此，他沉浸在消费经济学的另一个世界中，这导致了他在消费函数理论（即永久收入理论）方面进行了更具技术性的工作。

So for Friedman, intellectual work and intellectual production was always done in this very social context, in a context that blended friendship and intellectual partnership.

因此，对于弗里德曼来说，智力工作和智力生产总是在这种社会背景下、在友谊和知识伙伴关系融为一体的背景下进行的。

And he only had a handful of friends who were not also economists interested in the same questions he was.

他只有少数朋友，他们不是对他所关心的同样问题感兴趣的经济学家。

So he just lived and breathed ideas all day long.

所以他整天只是生活和呼吸想法。

Can you speak to the jam sessions?

您能在即兴演奏会上发言吗？

2:25:30 What do we know about the jam sessions?

我们对即兴演奏会了解多少？

What are we talking about here?

我们在这里谈论什么？

You’re sitting in a room, are they analyzing?

你坐在一个房间里，他们在分析吗？

Are they reading papers and discussing papers> or are they arguing more over beers kind of situation?

他们是在阅读论文并讨论论文>还是在啤酒之类的情况下争论更多？

Yeah, more arguing over beers.

是的，关于啤酒的争论更多了。

2:25:42 And in this case, there’s several people who say it was all about Frank Knight.

在这种情况下，有几个人说这都是关于弗兰克·奈特的。

What did he say?

他说什么？

What did he mean when he said it?

他说这句话的时候是什么意思？

Is he right?

他说得对吗？

And so Knight, he would say one thing and then say another.

所以奈特，他会说一件事，然后又说另一件事。

If you read him, it’s very hard to follow what he’s actually saying because he’s full of qualifications and ironies.

如果你读他的书，你很难理解他实际上在说什么，因为他充满了限制和讽刺。

It blends.

它混合在一起。

And so he would throw out these pieces and then the students would clutch at them, and then they would come back together and try to assemble this worldview.

所以他会扔掉这些碎片，然后学生们会抓住它们，然后他们会回到一起并尝试组装这个世界观。

And then Frank Knight fell into this terrible depression, and to cheer him up, they planned a big party and they went back through all of his previous writings and they assembled them into a book that was published.

然后弗兰克·奈特陷入了可怕的抑郁症，为了让他振作起来，他们计划了一个大型聚会，他们回顾了他以前的所有著作，并将它们整理成一本书出版了。

This is the Ethics of Competition, and you can read the introduction written in part by Milton Friedman.

这是《竞争伦理》，您可以阅读米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）撰写的部分介绍。

2:26:29 So not only were they talking about Knight and what he said, but then they started pouring over his work.

因此，他们不仅谈论奈特和他所说的话，而且还开始倾注他的工作。

One of them described it as a general equilibrium system where you had to know all the parts and then all of a sudden it all fit together in a whole.

其中一位将其描述为一个一般平衡系统，您必须了解所有部分，然后突然间它们全部组合成一个整体。

So if we step back, what they were doing was getting inside the mind of a great thinker and understanding the ways it all fit together and then testing their ideas against Knight’s.

因此，如果我们退后一步，他们所做的就是进入一位伟大思想家的思想并理解它们如何组合在一起，然后对照奈特的想法来测试他们的想法。

And what’s fascinating is, one of the first papers that Friedman publishes in statistics is a rebuttal of Frank Knight.

有趣的是，弗里德曼在统计学领域发表的第一篇论文就是对弗兰克·奈特的反驳。

He publishes a rebuttal of Frank Knight’s ideas about risk and uncertainty.

他发表了对弗兰克·奈特关于风险和不确定性的观点的反驳。

And Frank Knight, he took a black swan argument.

弗兰克·奈特（Frank Knight）则采取了黑天鹅论。

He said, “Risk, you can calculate.

他说：“风险，你可以计算一下。

Uncertainty, you can’t existentially philosophically.

不确定性，你不能从哲学上存在主义。

You can’t get your hands around it.

你无法控制它。

It is the Black Swan.”

这就是黑天鹅。”

2:27:22 And Friedman publishes this statistical paper and he says, “I can put uncertainty on a graph.” And so there’s that Freudian killing of the father element when he comes back and he will in some ways turn his back on Knight’s approach and Knight’s pessimism even while it’s a foundation of his thinking.

弗里德曼发表了这篇统计论文，他说：“我可以将不确定性放在图表上。”因此，当他回来时，就会出现弗洛伊德式的对父亲元素的杀戮，他会在某种程度上背弃奈特的方法和奈特的悲观主义，尽管这是他思想的基础。

Fascinating.

令人着迷。

2:27:42 Is there something you could say about the thinking process that Milton Friedman followed, how he developed his ideas?

您能谈谈米尔顿·弗里德曼遵循的思维过程以及他如何发展自己的想法吗？

You mentioned there’s a strong collaborative component, but there’s another story I saw about that I think his son recalled about the argument number system that you mentioned, which, by the way, if you can explain that as a tangent of a tangent, that’s really awesome.

你提到有一个强大的协作组成部分，但我看到了另一个故事，我认为他的儿子回忆起了你提到的参数数字系统，顺便说一句，如果你能将其解释为切线的切线，那真是太棒了。

I think it’s number one if the other person is right.

我认为如果对方是对的，那就是第一。

Number two means you were right and I was wrong.

第二个意思是你是对的，我是错的。

2:28:14 And the number system evolved in some ways to be quick and efficient, but in other ways they also were really clear about it.

数字系统在某些方面的发展变得快速而高效，但在其他方面他们也非常清楚。

So something like there’s three reasons behind it.

所以这背后有三个原因。

First is, if you use a number, it reminds the listener that it’s really hard to say the words, “I was wrong.” So you’re calling on their sympathy by using the number, reminding them that you’re doing a hard thing.

首先，如果你使用数字，它会提醒听众，很难说“我错了”。所以你通过使用这个号码来唤起他们的同情，提醒他们你正在做一件艰难的事情。

And then it’s also reminding them that you’re in this family with this code, and so you’re signaling your membership and your closeness and your love, really.

然后它也提醒他们，你是在这个拥有这个代码的家庭中，所以你真的在表达你的会员资格、你的亲密和你的爱。

It’s supposed to be an easy way to disagree without breaking the relationship.

这应该是一种在不破坏关系的情况下表达不同意见的简单方法。

So admitting you’re wrong now comes with this warm fuzzy feeling?

所以现在承认自己错了会带来这种温暖而模糊的感觉吗？

Yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊。

And, really, I mean, that’s so powerful.

而且，真的，我的意思是，这太强大了。

2:29:07 I think so much of the friction of human interaction could be boiled down to just not being able to admit they are wrong efficiently and quickly and regularly and just often.

我认为人际交往中的大部分摩擦都可以归结为无法有效、快速、定期、频繁地承认自己的错误。

And to be able to do that, that’s really powerful.

能够做到这一点，这真的很强大。

I think it is a really neat aspect of their family life, for sure.

我认为这无疑是他们家庭生活的一个非常美好的方面。

That’s a fun story, but can we just generalize to how he engaged in collaboration, how he developed his ideas?

这是一个有趣的故事，但我们能否概括一下他如何参与合作、如何发展自己的想法？

2:29:31 Is there a thinking process?

有一个思考的过程吗？

So he taught at the University of Chicago, and he tended to teach for six months and then have six months off.

所以他在芝加哥大学任教，他倾向于教六个月，然后休息六个月。

2:29:41 And he spent the summers in New Hampshire or Vermont, right near that border.

他在新罕布什尔州或佛蒙特州边境附近度过了夏天。

They had two different houses.

他们有两栋不同的房子。

And that to him was the deep thinking time.

对他来说，这就是深度思考的时间。

And so when he’s at Chicago, he’s teaching, he’s arguing.

所以当他在芝加哥时，他在教学，他在争论。

Some people love his teaching style, very much in charge, very much keeping students on their toes, confrontational.

有些人喜欢他的教学风格，非常负责，非常让学生保持警惕，具有对抗性。

Others found it too much, overwhelming, shut them down intellectually and they couldn’t cope with it.

其他人则觉得这太多了，压倒性的，使他们在智力上被关闭，他们无法应对。

And so I think it was go time when he was teaching.

所以我认为他教学的时间到了。

In that case, that was a lot of social time interacting, talking other professors, going out and giving papers, arguing with the people at Yale or Harvard.

在那种情况下，这是大量的社交时间互动，与其他教授交谈，出去发表论文，与耶鲁大学或哈佛大学的人争论。

Then he would go and do these very deep dives over the summer.

然后他会在夏天进行这些非常深入的潜水。

2:30:31 He would also regularly do these trips to New York to see Anna Schwartz, his 12-year collaborator.

他还会定期去纽约看望他 12 年的合作伙伴安娜·施瓦茨 (Anna Schwartz)。

Phone calls were really expensive.

电话费确实很贵。

They did have quite an extensive correspondence, but then they would do these meetings.

他们确实有相当广泛的通信，但随后他们会举行这些会议。

So he would basically come in at the beginning of the summer going to Rahway, stop in New York, see Schwartz, and then again on the way back to Chicago.

所以他基本上会在夏初来到拉威，在纽约停留，见见施瓦茨，然后在返回芝加哥的途中再次过来。

So he’d have these deep check-ins at that point.

所以他会在那时进行深入的检查。

The other thing that happened is people would come visit him in New Hampshire.

发生的另一件事是人们会来新罕布什尔州拜访他。

He had his studio separate from the house, he would go and he would work, and then at night his friends would come.

他的工作室与房子分开，他会去工作，然后晚上他的朋友会来。

His friends were all economists.

他的朋友都是经济学家。

There’s a whole cluster of economists.

有一大群经济学家。

They all clustered within driving distance of the Dartmouth Library so that they could get their hands on books.

他们都聚集在达特茅斯图书馆的车程范围内，以便能够拿到书籍。

And so they would come over and then they would argue and talk into the night.

所以他们会过来，然后他们会争论并交谈到深夜。

So I think he did need that deep focus time, but he also lived a very engaged, very embedded social life.

所以我认为他确实需要那种深度专注的时间，但他也过着非常投入、非常深入的社交生活。

A part of which was this marriage.

这次婚姻就是其中的一部分。

2:31:28 Is there something you could say about love, about marriage, about relationship that made the whole thing work, it was vibrant, and they wrote a biography together?

关于爱情、婚姻、关系，你能说些什么让整个事情顺利进行、充满活力，并且他们一起写了一本传记吗？

They did.

他们做到了。

2:31:40 I mean, they were very complimentary.

我的意思是，他们非常互补。

They were the yin and the yang.

他们是阴和阳。

She was very introverted, somewhat suspicious of others, skeptical, and he was extremely extroverted, optimistic, high energy.

她非常内向，对别人有些怀疑，多疑，而他却极其外向，乐观，精力充沛。

And they also were at a time when it was really clear.

他们也正处于一个非常清晰的时期。

For broader society, these are the roles of a man, these are the roles of a woman.

对于更广泛的社会来说，这些是男人的角色，这些是女人的角色。

And they pretty much adopted those.

他们几乎采用了这些。

Now, Rose Friedman did some very important economic work.

现在，罗斯·弗里德曼做了一些非常重要的经济工作。

She’s part of the early stages of the theory of the consumption function.

她是消费函数理论早期阶段的一部分。

She didn’t complete her degree because she really knew if she wanted to be married and have children in the world she lived in, there wasn’t a real pathway to also being an economist.

她没有完成学位，因为她真的知道，如果她想在她生活的世界里结婚生子，就没有一条真正的途径成为一名经济学家。

I do think that a lot of that, although it feels very gendered, he’s the man out in the world and she’s in private, it’s interesting because her brother, Aaron Director, was the same way.

我确实认为其中很多，虽然感觉很性别化，但他是世界上的男人，而她是私下里的，这很有趣，因为她的兄弟亚伦·导演也是如此。

2:32:36 He was a very private man, very shy, very introverted, and he exerted this quiet intellectual influence on all of his friends.

他是一个非常注重隐私的人，非常害羞，非常内向，他对他所有的朋友都施加了这种安静的智力影响。

So I think that was just a family trait of being more quiet, preferring to be behind the scenes.

所以我认为这只是一个更安静、更喜欢呆在幕后的家庭特征。

It wouldn’t have worked any other way because Friedman was so out there, so extroverted.

任何其他方式都不会起作用，因为弗里德曼是如此外向，如此外向。

And there’s a bit of a sad thing she said, she said, “When I married Milton, I lost half of my conversations.

她说，有一点悲伤，“当我嫁给米尔顿时，我失去了一半的谈话。

When David came along, I lost the other half.” So this is a household that was just dominated by male voices in which she didn’t have a lot of room.

当大卫出现时，我就失去了另一半。”所以这是一个以男性声音为主的家庭，她没有太多的空间。

What was tricky for me in my research is she didn’t leave much of a trace.

在我的研究中，棘手的是她没有留下太多痕迹。

She put together Milton Friedman’s archive and she took herself out of it.

她整理了米尔顿·弗里德曼的档案，然后将自己从中抽离出来。

2:33:21 I really had trouble finding her actual voice in the historical documents, and she didn’t want to leave that behind, so this absolute essential piece of his success.

我真的很难在历史文献中找到她的真实声音，她不想把它抛在脑后，所以这对他的成功绝对是至关重要的。

Because she’s the one who pushed him to do the Newsweek column to do Free To Choose.

因为她是推动他做《新闻周刊》专栏、做《自由选择》的人。

And she really wrote Capitalism and Freedom.

她确实写了《资本主义与自由》。

She took all his random notes and she put them together into a book.

她记下了他所有的随机笔记，并将它们整理成一本书。

And that became this testimony of his ideas.

这成为了他的想法的见证。

But she shared many of his ideas and when I think of Friedman, if you take away Anna Schwartz, if you take away Rose Friedman, if you take away the other woman who collaborated with him, you have a much thinner resume than the one he actually has.

但她分享了他的许多想法，当我想到弗里德曼时，如果你拿走安娜·施瓦茨，如果你拿走罗斯·弗里德曼，如果你拿走与他合作的另一位女性，你的简历会比他实际的简历薄得多。

Yeah, it’s always sad, and it always makes me wonder about the private, secret conversations between partners because they might not show up in the record, but they probably influence the person more than almost anything else, those quiet little conversations.

是的，这总是令人悲伤，它总是让我想知道伴侣之间的私人秘密对话，因为它们可能不会出现在记录中，但它们可能比其他任何事情都更能影响一个人，那些安静的小对话。

2:34:01 If we can switch our path to another great mind of the 20th century, Ayn Rand, we talked about some of the similarities here, about them being fighters for freedom and fighters for capitalism.

如果我们能把我们的道路转向 20 世纪的另一位伟大思想家艾因·兰德 (Ayn Rand)，我们在这里讨论了一些相似之处，即他们都是自由战士和资本主义战士。

What is Ayn Rand’s philosophy?

安·兰德的哲学是什么？

If you can give a big 10 summary of objectivism?

您能否对客观主义给出10大总结？

Yeah, so she called it objectivism.

是的，所以她称之为客观主义。

2:34:47 She used to do this thing, “I can stand on one foot and say it.” It goes something like, “Epistemology, reason, ethics, selfishness, politics, capitalism.” That was how she summarized it.

她曾经做过这样的事，“我可以用一只脚站着说。”它类似于“认识论、理性、伦理、自私、政治、资本主义”。她是这么总结的。

So what she did, there’s a couple of things she did with objectivism.

所以她所做的，有几件事是她带着客观主义做的。

First of all, she says the key defining element of humanity is rationalism, the rational faculty.

首先，她说人类的关键定义要素是理性主义，即理性能力。

That’s what defines what humanity is.

这就是人类的定义。

Therefore, there is an objective reality that we can access a know with our reason.

因此，有一个客观存在，我们可以通过理性来认识。

That’s the objective epistemology.

这就是客观认识论。

And the one social and economic system that lets rationality flower and is based upon rationality is capitalism.

资本主义是一种让理性得以绽放并以理性为基础的社会和经济制度。

And then rationality only works in her view as an individual capacity and that rationality teaches that what you should do is pursue your interests.

然后，在她看来，理性只能作为个人能力发挥作用，而理性告诉我们，你应该做的是追求你的兴趣。

And so she ends up calling that selfishness.

所以她最终称这种行为为自私。

2:35:50 Now, it’s tricky because selfishness has so many strong and negative connotations, and she meant I think something closer to self-actualization, because she really tried to create this idea and express the idea that to be truly selfish did not mean trampling on others.

现在，这很棘手，因为自私有很多强烈和负面的含义，她的意思是我认为更接近自我实现，因为她真的试图创造这个想法并表达这样的想法：真正的自私并不意味着践踏他人。

It meant just being motivated by your own internal measures and metrics.

这意味着只是被你自己的内部措施和指标所激励。

And so in her fiction, she tries to show this by showing the false selfishness of some of Peter Keating, who’s an architect who steps over everybody to advance his career.

因此，在她的小说中，她试图通过表现彼得·基廷（Peter Keating）的一些虚假自私来展示这一点，彼得·基廷是一位建筑师，为了推进自己的事业而超越了所有人。

And she says, “That’s not true selfishness because true selfishness would recognize it’s false to take others’ work and pass it off as your own.”

她说：“这不是真正的自私，因为真正的自私会认识到拿别人的作品冒充自己的作品是错误的。”

2:36:43 Now, the other big piece of objectivism is a very approach that’s really inspired and related to Friedrich Nietzsche’s idea of revaluing values or a genealogy of morals.

现在，客观主义的另一个重要部分是一种非常受弗里德里希·尼采重估价值观或道德谱系思想的启发并与之相关的方法。

And so she says, ” What’s happened here is Western culture has converged on this idea of altruism as good.

所以她说，“这里发生的事情是，西方文化已经融合了利他主义为善的观念。

Being selfless and altruistic is good.

无私、无私是好的。

And this has led us to communism and has led us to devalue the individual in favor of the collective.

这导致我们走向共产主义，并导致我们贬低个人而支持集体。

So what we need is a new moral code which elevates selfishness, which elevates the individual, and which takes all the things that we have been told are bad and actually says their values.” This is what she’s trying to do with objectivism.

因此，我们需要的是一种新的道德准则，它可以提升自私，提升个人，并接受所有我们被告知的不好的事情，并真正表达它们的价值观。”这就是她试图用客观主义做的事情。

I mean, it is about as ambitious of an intellectual project as there can be, and that’s what really draws people in.

我的意思是，这是一个尽可能雄心勃勃的智力项目，这才是真正吸引人们参与的地方。

2:37:40 Yet at the same time, she’s flying in the face of the way human morals and ethics and societies have evolved, and she’s not able to single-handedly recreate them the way she wants them to be.

但与此同时，她却与人类道德、伦理和社会的演变方式背道而驰，她无法单枪匹马地按照她想要的方式重新创造它们。

Yeah, I mean, she’s not doing herself any favors by taking on the words and trying to rebrand them completely writing the virtue of selfishness.

是的，我的意思是，她接受这些词并试图重新命名它们，完全写出自私的美德，这对自己没有任何好处。

2:37:52 It’s like, can we just call it a self-actualization?

就像，我们可以称之为自我实现吗？

Yeah.

是的。

There’s a negative connotation to selfishness and a positive connotation to altruism.

自私有消极的含义，利他主义有积极的含义。

2:38:05 So sometimes it seems it takes on the hardest possible form of argument.

所以有时它似乎采取了最困难的论证形式。

Yeah, I mean, she had a student who ended up being very close to her, Nathaniel Brandon, and he was the reverend advisor, and he said, “Can you please not use selfishness?

是的，我的意思是，她有一个学生，最终与她非常接近，纳撒尼尔·布兰登，他是尊敬的顾问，他说，“你能不能不要使用自私？

2:38:18 Just come up with another word.” But part of her liked it.

再想一个词就行了。”但她的一部分喜欢它。

Part of her wanted to provoke and unsettle.

她内心的一部分想要挑衅和不安。

She didn’t want to give that up.

她不想放弃这个。

I mean, people should listen to her public talks.

我的意思是，人们应该听听她的公开演讲。

2:38:35 Her whole aura, way of being is provocative, and she’s a real powerhouse of an intellectual.

她的整个气场、做事方式都是挑衅性的，是一个真正的知识分子强者。

So she loves the challenge and just listening to her in itself is just inspiring.

所以她喜欢挑战，仅仅听她说话本身就很鼓舞人心。

You could see the individualism radiate from her.

你可以看到她身上散发出的个人主义。

Yeah, I mean, that was one of the things I found in researching and writing about her.

是的，我的意思是，这是我在研究和撰写有关她的文章时发现的事情之一。

2:39:01 She’s an incredibly unusual human being.

她是一个非常不寻常的人。

That was her strength because she’s so unusual, but it was also her downfall because she looked to herself as a model or to get insight about humanity, and she never quite processed how different she was from other people.

这是她的优势，因为她是如此不寻常，但这也是她的失败，因为她将自己视为模特或了解人性，而她从未完全处理过自己与其他人有多么不同。

So just because we talked about Milton Friedman so much, can we just return to, what do you, given everything we’ve said, is the interesting difference about Ayn Rand, her ideas related to Milton Friedman?

因此，正因为我们谈论了米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）这么多，我们是否可以回到，考虑到我们所说的一切，安·兰德（Ayn Rand）的有趣差异是什么？她的想法与米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）相关吗？

Yeah, I mean, broadly we could put Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand in some category together, but she has this focus on ethics and rationality and this desire to be revolutionary that’s much stronger than Friedman.

是的，我的意思是，从广义上讲，我们可以将米尔顿·弗里德曼和艾因·兰德放在一起，但她对道德和理性的关注以及对革命的渴望比弗里德曼强烈得多。

2:39:44 Friedman wanted to overthrow the economic consensus.

弗里德曼想要推翻经济共识。

He didn’t want to overturn the moral basis of Western society.

他不想推翻西方社会的道德基础。

Also, she does something.

此外，她还做了一些事情。

So in one of Frank Knight’s essays, he talks about the ethics of competition, and he says, “You basically cannot build an ethics out of competition because it would be monstrous to do so because it would say the winner of this competition is ethically right, and that would open the door to might makes right.” And this is what Friedman struggles with.

因此，在弗兰克·奈特的一篇文章中，他谈到了竞争的道德，他说，“你基本上不能在竞争中建立道德，因为这样做会是可怕的，因为它会说这场竞争的获胜者在道德上是正确的，这将为强权即公理打开大门。”这就是弗里德曼所苦苦挣扎的问题。

And he says, “I can’t take capitalist outcomes as ethical unto themselves.

他说：“我不能认为资本主义的结果本身就是道德的。

I can’t do it.

我做不到。

It doesn’t feel right.” And there’s this line where Frank Knight says, “No one would ever do this.” And I was like, “Oh, Frank Knight, you haven’t read Ayn Rand yet.”

感觉不对。”弗兰克·奈特（Frank Knight）有这样一句话：“没有人会这么做。”我当时想，“哦，弗兰克·奈特，你还没读过艾因·兰德。”

Hold me beer.

给我啤酒。

You’re a little too early.

你有点太早了。

2:40:48 Because that’s what she does, she takes the outcomes of capitalism and of market competition and says, “These have ethical meaning, and this is where ethical meaning inheres, and it is ethical to try to succeed and to succeed in a capitalist society.” Now, what she’s able to do is create a fictional world in which people succeed in her fictional capitalist world through ethical behavior.

因为这就是她所做的，她对资本主义和市场竞争的结果说：“这些具有伦理意义，这就是伦理意义的本质所在，在资本主义社会中努力取得成功并取得成功是合乎道德的。”现在，她能够做的是创造一个虚构的世界，在这个世界中，人们通过道德行为在她虚构的资本主义世界中取得成功。

And so she doesn’t really have to wrestle with a capitalist world in which people succeed through fraud and corruption and all the other things that might go into someone’s success.

因此，她实际上不必与资本主义世界作斗争，在这个世界中，人们通过欺诈和腐败以及所有其他可能导致某人成功的事情来取得成功。

She creates the best possible take on success under capitalism, and then she holds that up as an ideal.

她创造了资本主义下成功的最佳视角，然后她将其视为一种理想。

And I think what’s important is that so few people have done that, and she comes at a time when everybody is emphasizing a downsize of capitalism, and she says, “There’s another way to look at it.

我认为重要的是很少有人这样做，而且她出现在每个人都强调资本主义缩减规模的时候，她说，“还有另一种看待它的方式。

Here are the good sides of capitalism.”

这是资本主义的优点。”

And like you said, she was operating, which I really loved the phrasing of that, in the Mythic Register.

就像你说的，她正在操作，我真的很喜欢神话登记册中的措辞。

Yeah.

是的。

So she was constructing these characters, these capitalists that are the highest form, these great heroic figures, almost romanticizing them.

所以她正在塑造这些人物，这些最高形式的资本家，这些伟大的英雄人物，几乎把它们浪漫化了。

Yeah, yeah.

是啊是啊。

You mentioned We The Living is one of the books that you like of hers the most, but can we stay in the Mythic Register with the Fountainhead and Atlas Rugged?

你提到《我们活着的人》是你最喜欢她的书之一，但是我们能和《源泉》和《坚固的阿特拉斯》一起留在神话名录中吗？

2:42:01 What are some memorable, inspiring moments, insightful moments from those books that may be scenes or ideas that you take away from them that are important for people to understand?

这些书中有哪些令人难忘、鼓舞人心的时刻、富有洞察力的时刻，这些时刻或想法可能是你从书中摘录的，对人们理解很重要？

Yeah, so the Fountainhead is this story of a struggling architect, Howard Rourke, and she follows his life and his career.

是的，《源泉》讲述的是一位苦苦挣扎的建筑师霍华德·洛克 (Howard Rourke) 的故事，她追随他的生活和职业生涯。

2:42:30 And the message is, really, it’s a version of to thine own self be true.

事实上，它传达的信息是“做真实的自己”。

And Rourke’s designs are to avant garde, nobody appreciates him and he just keeps doing what he wants to do and is just focused on his own visions, his own genius.

Rourke 的设计很前卫，没有人欣赏他，他只是继续做他想做的事，只专注于自己的愿景、自己的天才。

I think that’s been really inspiring to creators of all types.

我认为这对所有类型的创作者来说都非常鼓舞人心。

I think it’s fairly unrealistic as a portrait of human achievement, but it’s an aspirational idea.

我认为作为人类成就的写照是相当不现实的，但这是一个有抱负的想法。

I mean, one phrase that comes to mind is, there’s a character, I forget which one, who is in some adversarial relationship with Howard Rourke and says something to him like, “Well, Mr. Rourke, what do you think of me?” And Rourke says, “I don’t think of you.”

我的意思是，我想到的一句话是，有一个角色，我忘了是哪一个，他与霍华德·洛克有某种敌对关系，并对他说了一些类似的话，“好吧，洛克先生，你觉得我怎么样？”洛克说：“我不想你。”

2:43:23 And that to Rand was the ideal.

这对兰德来说就是理想的选择。

You’re not thinking of other people.

你没有考虑其他人。

You’re an island unto yourself.

你就是一座孤岛。

You’re focused on your own goals, your own capacities, and you’re not doing it to impress other people or to be better than other people or to dominate other people.

你专注于自己的目标、自己的能力，而不是为了给别人留下深刻印象，或者比别人更好，或者统治别人。

You’re doing it because expressing your inner soul in a way.

你这样做是因为以某种方式表达你的内在灵魂。

So that has been very captivating to so many, and the Fountainhead is one of those books we talked about that causes, people read it and they make changes in their life or they feel called to their higher self.

所以这对很多人来说非常着迷，而《源泉》是我们谈论过的那些书之一，人们读了它，他们在生活中做出了改变，或者他们感到被召唤到更高的自我。

And I think there’s also the scene where Rourke with the Dean of Architecture at the school that’s speaking to what you’re saying, I think to me is inspiring.

我认为还有一个场景，洛克与学校建筑系主任的谈话，我认为对我来说是鼓舞人心的。

2:43:55 So this is the Dean of Architecture that expels Rourke, and then brings him into a meeting thinking Rourke will plead for a second chance.

这就是建筑学院院长驱逐了洛克，然后让他参加一个会议，认为洛克会请求第二次机会。

And the Dean says that, “Rourke’s work is contrary to every principle we have tried to teach you, contrary to all established precedents and traditions of art.

院长说：“洛克的作品违背了我们试图教给你们的每一条原则，违背了所有既定的先例和艺术传统。

Do you mean to tell me that you’re thinking seriously of building that way when and if you are an architect?” And then in a gangster-like way, Rourke says, “Yes.” And then Dean asks, “My dear fellow, who will let you?” And Rourke replies, “That’s not the point.

你的意思是告诉我，当你是一名建筑师时，你正在认真考虑以这种方式建造吗？”然后洛克以黑帮般的方式说：“是的。”然后迪恩问道：“亲爱的朋友，谁会让你这么做？”洛克回答说：“这不是重点。

The point is, who will stop me?”

问题是，谁来阻止我？”

Yes.

是的。

2:44:44 I mean, Rand’s coming from communist Russia, but it has a bit of the don’t mess with Texas flavor, I might say that really resonates with this idea of anyone who’s felt like they’re fighting the powers that be.

我的意思是，兰德来自共产主义俄罗斯，但它有一点“别搞乱德克萨斯州”的味道，我可能会说，这确实与任何感觉自己正在与权力作斗争的人的想法产生共鸣。

Yeah, it’s interesting.

是的，这很有趣。

I thought you might be going to the quote where he says something like, “I inherit no tradition.

我想你可能会引用他说的一句话，“我没有继承传统。

I stand at the beginning of one.” And I really think Rand’s thinking about herself when she says that, that she inherits nothing.

我正站在一个起点。”我真的认为兰德说这句话时是在考虑她自己，她没有继承任何东西。

She stands at the start.

她站在起点。

But The Fountainhead comes out in the middle of World War Two, and Rand is an unknown writer.

但《源泉》出版于第二次世界大战中期，兰德是一位默默无闻的作家。

This is a strange book.

这是一本奇怪的书。

It’s a classic story.

这是一个经典的故事。

It’s turned down by 12 publishers before one takes a chance on it.

在有人尝试尝试之前，已经有 12 家出版商拒绝了。

And Rand really loved this story.

兰德真的很喜欢这个故事。

The editor who read it said, “This book is great”.” And his boss said no.

读过它的编辑说：“这本书很棒”。他的老板拒绝了。

And he said, “If you don’t take this book, I’m quitting.” And so she idolized him for doing that.

他说：“如果你不接受这本书，我就不干了。”所以她崇拜他这样做。

2:45:40 So they print it and it becomes a bestseller just through word of mouth.

因此他们将其印刷出来，并通过口口相传成为畅销书。

So it’s not advertised.

所以就不做广告了。

It gets one good book review, but people tell each other how much they like this book.

它得到了一篇很好的书评，但人们互相告诉对方他们有多喜欢这本书。

And it keeps printing and selling out printings.

它不断印刷并销售一空。

It’s made into a movie.

它被拍成了电影。

And so it lands in this time when Americans are engaged in this great collective endeavor of World War Two.

因此，它发生在美国人正在投身于第二次世界大战这一伟大集体事业的时代。

They’re making all kinds of sacrifices for the collective and I think, paradoxically, as they do that, they’re drawn to this vision of someone who doesn’t have to compromise at all, who is leading their life exactly as they want to.

他们为集体做出各种牺牲，我认为，矛盾的是，当他们这样做时，他们被这样的愿景所吸引：一个根本不需要妥协的人，一个完全按照自己想要的方式过着自己的生活的人。

Meanwhile, they might be sleeping on an ocean liner because they’ve been drafted to fight in this war, and they’re reading The Fountainhead and they’re feeling better about themselves.

与此同时，他们可能睡在远洋客轮上，因为他们被征召参加这场战争，他们正在阅读《源泉》，他们对自己感觉好多了。

2:46:19 And so it’s also really interesting.

所以这也很有趣。

The Fountainhead is hugely popular in India, which is fascinating, and talk to people about this and they basically say, “This book comes like a breath of fresh air into a very traditional and conformist culture.

《源泉》在印度非常受欢迎，这很有趣，与人们谈论这件事时，他们基本上会说：“这本书就像一股新鲜空气，带入了非常传统和墨守成规的文化。

And people just latch onto it and they love it, and it gives them that feeling of freedom and possibility that they’re hoping for.”

人们只是抓住它并且喜欢它，它给了他们所希望的自由和可能性的感觉。”

Yeah, I mean, it really is a book, Atlas Shrugged can be a bit of that too, but it’s more of the philosophy objectivism and the details and the nuance of that seeps into Atlas Shrugged.

是的，我的意思是，这确实是一本书，《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》也可以有一点这样，但它更多的是哲学客观主义以及渗透到《阿特拉斯耸肩》中的细节和细微差别。

2:46:41 The Fountainhead is very much like a thing that makes you change the path of your life.

源泉很像一个让你改变人生道路的东西。

I mean, that’s beautiful to see that books can have that power.

我的意思是，很高兴看到书籍具有这种力量。

And Rand knew that she was doing that and she knew what she was doing.

兰德知道她正在这样做，也知道自己在做什么。

2:47:02 This wasn’t an accident.

这并非偶然。

And people say, “Oh, she’s a bad writer.

人们说：“哦，她是个糟糕的作家。

Oh, her characters are so heavy-handed.” She started as a screenwriter.

噢，她的角色太严厉了。”她最初是一名编剧。

She started as someone who analyzed films for movie studios.

她最初是为电影制片厂分析电影的人。

She knew exactly how to manipulate plot and character and drama.

她确切地知道如何操纵情节、人物和戏剧。

And she also knew that she was writing, people say, “Oh, Rand is for adolescence, adolescent teenagers love Rand,” and that’s who she was writing for.

她也知道她在写作，人们说，“哦，兰德是为青春期而写的，青春期的青少年喜欢兰德，”这就是她为之写作的人。

And she said, “I’m writing for people as they start out on their life and they’re thinking about who they want to be.” So she’s not writing for the weary middle aged.

她说：“我为那些刚开始生活并正在思考自己想成为谁的人们写作。”所以她不是为疲惫的中年人写作。

She’s writing for the young who are looking for inspiration.

她正在为寻找灵感的年轻人写作。

People say that to me sometimes about certain books like Rand, but also about The Alchemist.

人们有时对我这样说，是关于《兰德》等某些书，还有《炼金术士》。

2:47:46 I know a lot of people for whom The Alchemist, and they’re adults and they’re brilliant people, The Alchemist changed their life.

我认识很多人，《炼金术士》改变了他们的生活，他们都是成年人，都是才华横溢的人。

And the same can be said about The Fountainhead.

《源泉》也是如此。

Yeah.

是的。

And I sometimes get criticized for using words that are too simple.

有时我会因为使用过于简单的词语而受到批评。

2:48:04 I think simple words can have power, and the cliche thing sometimes needs to be said.

我认为简单的话语也有力量，陈词滥调有时需要说出来。

And sometimes it effectively needs to be said in an over the top way in the Mythic Register, because that’s the thing that resonates with us.

有时，它实际上需要在神话名录中以一种夸张的方式表达出来，因为这会引起我们的共鸣。

We are heroes of our own story and we need to hear that message sometimes to take the bold step, to take the risk, to take the leap.

我们是自己故事中的英雄，有时我们需要听到这样的信息，才能迈出大胆的一步，承担风险，迈出一大步。

Yeah, and I mean the other thing, she knew she was doing propaganda in a way.

是的，我的意思是另一件事，她知道她在某种程度上进行宣传。

2:48:38 She was like, “I’m doing pro-capitalist propaganda.” She has a degree from the University of Leningrad.

她说，“我正在做亲资本主义的宣传。”她拥有列宁格勒大学的学位。

She was raised up in Soviet Russia.

她在苏维埃俄罗斯长大。

She said, “We need to present the case for the other side in the same way.” And that’s what she did.

她说：“我们需要以同样的方式为对方陈述案情。”她就是这么做的。

Why do you think she’s so divisive?

你认为她为什么如此分裂？

2:48:57 People either love her or hate her.

人们要么爱她，要么恨她。

I mean, I think it’s because of that purity that I’m willing to say, “You get what you deserve,” and that lack of charity.

我的意思是，我认为正是因为这种纯洁，我才愿意说，“你得到了你应得的”，并且缺乏慈善。

2:48:59 And part of that in her work is because she creates this fictional work where she can set everything up just so, and so you don’t have contingency or accident or bad luck.

她作品中的部分原因是因为她创作了这部虚构的作品，她可以将一切都安排得如此，这样你就不会遇到意外事件或坏运气。

You don’t really have a lot of children.

你真的没有很多孩子。

You don’t have handicapped people.

你们没有残疾人。

You just have this idealized world.

你只有这个理想化的世界。

And I think it’s really infuriating for people who feel that’s so inaccurate.

我认为对于那些认为这种说法不准确的人来说，这真的很令人愤怒。

How can you be deriving a social theory and philosophy around this?

你如何能围绕这个推导出社会理论和哲学？

And how can you be missing, what seems to many people, she’s missing the ethical instinct or the altruistic or charitable instinct?

在很多人看来，她怎么会缺少道德本能、利他主义或慈善本能呢？

And so they just become enraged at that and they don’t want to see anyone go that far.

所以他们对此感到愤怒，他们不想看到任何人走那么远。

And they’re outraged that someone went that far, that did the thing that Frank Knight said no one would do.

他们对有人走那么远、做了弗兰克·奈特说没有人会做的事情感到愤怒。

It’s very unsettling.

这非常令人不安。

Would you say that’s…

你会说那是……

Yeah, it’s very unsettling.

是的，这非常令人不安。

Would you say that’s her main blind spot, the main flaw of objectivism is just how black and white it paints the world?

你会说这是她的主要盲点吗？客观主义的主要缺陷就是它把世界描绘得黑白分明？

2:50:02 If not, what would you say are the flaws of objectivism?

如果不是，您认为客观主义的缺陷是什么？

The big flaw is that it’s justified through a fictional world.

最大的缺陷是它是通过虚构的世界来证明的。

2:50:19 It’s not justified through reference to the real world.

通过参考现实世界来证明它是不合理的。

It’s not empirical in a way.

从某种程度上来说，这不是经验主义的。

It’s not…

这不是……

Rand herself would say this.

兰德自己也会这么说。

She’s not writing about things how they are, but how they should be.

她写的不是事物本来的样子，而是事物应该如何。

That idealism just really undermines it as a mechanism to understand where we’re actually living.

这种理想主义确实破坏了它作为了解我们实际生活的机制。

That is a big contrast with Milton Friedman, who would focus on how things are versus how things should be.

这与米尔顿·弗里德曼形成了鲜明对比，米尔顿·弗里德曼关注的是事情是如何的而不是事情应该如何。

Then I think it’s the problem of elevating rationality or any other mode of insight or thinking.

那么我认为这是提升理性或任何其他洞察力或思维方式的问题。

2:50:54 What happens in Rand’s life, I describe this in some detail in the book, is she essentially creates a cult of reason around her and people who are drawn into this cult…

我在书中详细描述了兰德的生活中发生的事情，她本质上在她周围创造了一种理性崇拜，以及那些被卷入这种崇拜的人们……

It’s called The Collective.

它被称为集体。

It’s a group of young people in New York City who are drawn to her work.

纽约市的一群年轻人被她的作品所吸引。

She’s already famous, but she’s writing Atlas Shrugged.

她已经很有名了，但她正在写《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》。

She’s sharing drafts of Atlas Shrugged as she goes along.

她边走边分享《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》的草稿。

And one of the members of The Collective, to bring all of this together, is Alan Greenspan, later be head of the Federal Reserve.

艾伦·格林斯潘（Alan Greenspan）是“集体”的成员之一，他后来成为美联储主席。

And he’s incredibly taken with her.

他对她非常着迷。

He’s one of these people who says, “I was a narrow technical thinker.

他就是其中之一，他说：“我是一个狭隘的技术思想家。

I never thought about ethics or politics or anything bigger until I met Ayn Rand.

在遇到艾因·兰德之前，我从未考虑过道德、政治或任何更大的事情。

She really opened my mind.”

她真的打开了我的心扉。”

2:51:44 He’s part of this tight-knit group.

他是这个紧密团结的团体的一员。

In this tight-knit group, they think of themselves, “We are all individualists.

在这个紧密团结的群体中，他们认为自己：“我们都是个人主义者。

We’re dedicated to individualism and capitalism.

我们致力于个人主义和资本主义。

We’re different than everybody else.” Over time, they all come to share Ayn Rand’s views and opinions on everything, from music to art, to clothes.

我们与其他人不同。”随着时间的推移，他们都开始分享艾因·兰德对一切事物的看法和看法，从音乐到艺术，再到服装。

She gets a dining room table and a bunch of them get the same dining room table, and it becomes incredibly conformist, because they’ve all believed they’re acting rationally.

她得到了一张餐桌，而他们中的一群人得到了同一张餐桌，这变得令人难以置信的墨守成规，因为他们都相信自己的行为是理性的。

And they believe that to act rationally is to agree with Ayn Rand and they believe there’s no other way to make decisions than rationality.

他们认为，理性行事就是同意艾因·兰德的观点，他们相信除了理性之外没有其他方法可以做出决定。

To disagree with her is to be irrational.

不同意她的观点就是不理性的。

They don’t want to be irrational.

他们不想变得非理性。

People get really caught up in this very damaging cult-like circle around her.

人们真的陷入了她周围这个极具破坏性的邪教圈子。

Plus, for a cult of reason, they get awfully emotional when there’s any disagreement with Ayn Rand.

另外，出于对理性的崇拜，当他们与艾因·兰德有任何分歧时，他们会变得非常情绪化。

Yeah.

是的。

It’s hilarious.

太搞笑了。

2:52:43 It’s absurd.

这是荒谬的。

It’s also beautiful to watch this singular figure.

观看这个独特的人物也很美丽。

We’ve talked about several singular figures, like Frank Wright, that shakes up the world with her ideas.

我们讨论过几个非凡的人物，比如弗兰克·赖特，她的想法震撼了世界。

Yeah.

是的。

Of course, it would form a cult.

当然，这会形成一个邪教。

2:53:00 And, of course, that cult would be full of contradictions and hypocrisies.

当然，这种崇拜会充满矛盾和虚伪。

Yeah, it’s amazing.

是的，太棒了。

2:53:06 Murray Rothbard is a famous anarchist, falls into the Ayn Rand cult.

穆雷·罗斯巴德是一位著名的无政府主义者，陷入了艾因·兰德邪教。

Then he disagrees and there’s some type of show trial where he’s told he’s wrong about everything.

然后他不同意，并进行了某种形式的审判，他被告知他所有的事情都是错的。

Then he has a little pseudo cult of his own, and two of his cult members switch over to Ayn Rand.

然后他有了自己的一个小伪邪教，他的两个邪教成员转向了安·兰德。

Then one of them, to gesture their breaking of the relationship, mails him a dollar bill that’s been torn in half.

然后，其中一个人寄给他一张撕成两半的美元钞票，以示与他断绝关系。

This is high theatrics, right?

这是高级戏剧吧？

Okay, sticking on the drama and the theatrics, who was Nathaniel Branden?

好吧，继续讨论戏剧和戏剧，纳撒尼尔·布兰登是谁？

Oh yes.

哦，是的。

Can you take me through the arc of Ayn Rand’s relationship with Nathaniel Branden to their dramatic falling out in 1968?

您能带我回顾一下艾因·兰德 (Ayn Rand) 与纳撒尼尔·布兰登 (Nathaniel Branden) 的关系，直至 1968 年戏剧性的闹翻吗？

Yes, after The Fountainhead, The Fountainhead is auctioned is sold to be a film.

是的，在《源泉》之后，《源泉》被拍卖并被拍成电影。

2:53:54 Ayn Rand moves to Hollywood where she’s going to help in the writing of the film.

安·兰德搬到好莱坞，她将在那里帮助电影的编剧。

She wants a lot of creative control and she’s also still working in screenwriting and things like this.

她想要更多的创意控制权，而且她仍在从事编剧之类的工作。

She gets a letter from…

她收到一封来自……的信

There’s a Canadian student who’s written to her several times, and then he writes again and he says, “I’m at UCLA.” And she’s like, “Young man, you’re so full of error.

有一个加拿大学生多次写信给她，然后他又写信说：“我在加州大学洛杉矶分校。”她说：“年轻人，你的错误太多了。

Why don’t you come visit me and I’ll straighten you out.” So he comes and they have this real meeting of the minds.

不如你来找我，我来收拾你。”所以他来了，他们进行了真正的思想交流。

They talk all night.

他们整晚都在说话。

He comes again, he brings his girlfriend, she loves him, and they start this very intense relationship of spending every weekend at her house, basically.

他又来了，他带来了他的女朋友，她爱他，他们开始了这种非常紧密的关系，基本上每个周末都在她家度过。

Staying up all night, talking about ideas.

熬夜，讨论想法。

2:54:39 He becomes completely converted to the objectivist worldview.

他完全转变为客观主义世界观。

Rand begins counseling him and his girlfriend about their relationship, very intense thing.

兰德开始就他们的关系向他和他的女朋友提供咨询，这是非常激烈的事情。

Then eventually they graduate from college and they both enroll in a graduate program in Columbia and they leave.

最终他们从大学毕业，并都报名参加了哥伦比亚大学的研究生课程，然后离开了。

After they’ve left, Ayn Rand is just bereft.

他们离开后，艾因·兰德感到失去了一切。

And within a few months she packs up her home and she moves to New York.

几个月后，她收拾好家，搬到了纽约。

“Here I am.

“我在这儿。

I like New York better.” That becomes the seedbed of The Collective.

我更喜欢纽约。”这成为了集体的苗床。

The Brandens, they get married.

布兰登一家，他们结婚了。

They change their name to Branden.

他们改名为布兰登。

They’ve never publicly spoken on this, but many people have pointed out it has the word Rand in the name.

他们从未公开谈论过这一点，但许多人指出它的名字中有兰德这个词。

It’s some type of acknowledgement of how important she is to them.

这是对她对他们有多重要的某种认可。

Time goes on, and romantic feelings develop between Ayn Rand and Nathaniel Branden, who’s some 20 years her junior.

随着时间的流逝，艾因·兰德和比她小 20 岁左右的纳撒尼尔·布兰登之间产生了浪漫的感情。

They discuss them and they realize that rationality has led them to the conclusion that they should be lovers.

他们讨论了他们，他们意识到理性使他们得出了他们应该成为恋人的结论。

Right.

对。

Right.

对。

2:55:39 They rationally decided this, but because they’re rational they need the consent or at least to inform their partners.

他们理性地决定了这一点，但因为他们是理性的，所以他们需要同意或至少通知他们的合作伙伴。

They’re both married?

他们都结婚了？

They’re both married.

他们都结婚了。

2:55:48 They call a meeting and they obtain the consent or maybe simply inform the others of the rationality of the choice.

他们召开会议并获得同意，或者可能只是告知其他人选择的合理性。

Then they say, “But this is only going to be an intellectual relationship, but we’d like a few hours alone each week and we don’t want to be deceptive, so we want you to know and approve of this.” The spouses bought into rationality, no one approve.

然后他们说，“但这只是一种智力关系，但我们希望每周有几个小时独处，我们不想欺骗，所以我们希望你知道并批准这一点。”夫妻俩都理性起来，没有人同意。

One thing leads to another.

一件事导致另一件事。

It becomes a full romantic and sexual relationship.

它成为一种完整的浪漫和性关系。

Although it’s open within these four people, it is not open more broadly.

虽然在这四个人内部是开放的，但并不是更广泛的开放。

In all these meetings of The Collective, Alan Greenspan, all these other people coming up, drinking coffee all night, talking, talking.

在集体的所有这些会议中，艾伦·格林斯潘和所有其他人都来了，整夜喝着咖啡，说啊说啊。

They all know that Nathaniel Branden is objectivist number one.

他们都知道纳撒尼尔·布兰登是第一客观主义者。

They don’t know that there’s a romantic and sexual relationship happening.

他们不知道正在发生浪漫和性关系。

It’s kept a secret.

这是一个秘密。

Then when Atlas Shrugged comes out, it’s panned by reviewers.

然后，当《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》问世时，它遭到了评论家的严厉批评。

2:56:42 People absolutely hate this book.

人们绝对讨厌这本书。

And Rand is not Howard Roark.

兰德不是霍华德·罗克。

She falls into a deep depression because her masterpiece has been rejected.

由于她的杰作被拒绝，她陷入了深深的沮丧之中。

Then the romantic relationship ends, but the close personal relationship continues.

然后浪漫关系结束，但亲密的个人关系仍在继续。

And then over time Branden, who’s still married to his wife, begins an affair with another young woman.

随着时间的推移，仍然与妻子结婚的布兰登开始与另一位年轻女子发生婚外情。

At this point he has started the Nathaniel Branden Institute to teach objectivism.

此时，他创办了纳撒尼尔布兰登学院来教授客观主义。

He’s making good money.

他赚了很多钱。

He’s becoming quite famous.

他变得很有名了。

She supported the institute?

她支持这个研究所吗？

She supported it.

她支持。

2:57:15 And at first it was to help her in her depression.

起初，这是为了帮助她缓解抑郁症。

He said, “The world needs to recognize your genius.

他说：“世界需要承认你的天才。

They missed Atlas Shrugged, but I’m going to teach them.

他们想念《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》，但我会教他们。

I’ll bring the message.” And it’s very successful.

我会带来消息。”而且非常成功。

It becomes its own business.

它成为自己的生意。

It has a newsletter.

它有一份时事通讯。

It’s a whole world.

这是一个完整的世界。

That small cult around Ayn Rand expands to this whole social network, and it’s very much a piece with this burgeoning conservative movement.

围绕艾因·兰德的小型邪教扩展到整个社交网络，它在很大程度上与这场蓬勃发展的保守派运动息息相关。

Objectivists are involved in criticizing the draft.

客观主义者参与了对该草案的批评。

There’s kind of a libertarian objectivist world going on.

一个自由意志客观主义的世界正在发生。

All of this is happening.

所有这一切都正在发生。

In the meantime, Nathaniel Branden has found a new partner, but he doesn’t tell Ayn Rand this because he knows she’ll be upset.

与此同时，纳撒尼尔·布兰登找到了新搭档，但他没有告诉艾因·兰德，因为他知道她会感到不安。

It goes on for years.

这种情况持续了好几年。

2:57:57 Ayn Rand knows something is going on, but she can’t quite figure it out.

安·兰德知道发生了什么事，但她不太明白。

And finally, Barbara, Branden says to Nathaniel Branden, “You know, you have to tell her.

最后，芭芭拉·布兰登对纳撒尼尔·布兰登说：“你知道，你必须告诉她。

This has just gone on too long.” She finds out and the whole thing blows up, and she exiles him and she breaks off contact with him.

这已经持续太久了。”她发现后，整个事情就爆发了，她流放了他，并与他断绝了联系。

And nobody has ever told what happens.

没有人告诉过发生了什么。

It’s called the [inaudible 02:58:23].

它被称为 [听不清 02:58:23]。

Objectivism breaks in two, because some people say, “How could Ayn Rand do anything wrong?” And other people say, ” What is this letter all about?

客观主义一分为二，因为有人说：“安·兰德怎么可能做错事呢？”其他人会说：“这封信到底讲了什么？

And what did Nathaniel Branden do?

纳撒尼尔·布兰登做了什么？

I’m not just going to take her word for it.

我不会只相信她的话。

I need more information.” Then a bunch of people read all the accounts of this.

我需要更多信息。”然后一群人读了所有关于这件事的报道。

A bunch of people are like, “Okay, they were having an affair.” And a bunch of other people are like, “No, that couldn’t possibly be happening.”

很多人会说，“好吧，他们有外遇。”还有很多人会说，“不，这不可能发生。”

2:58:48 The whole thing breaks up.

整个事情就破裂了。

But what I argue in my book is actually this is to the benefit of Rand’s ideas, because Rand herself was so controlling over her ideas.

但我在书中认为，这实际上是有利于兰德的想法的，因为兰德本人对她的想法有着如此强大的控制力。

And now that she steps back from a public role, objectivism flows into the student libertarian movement.

现在，她退出了公共角色，客观主义涌入了学生自由主义运动。

Some objectivists become conservatives.

一些客观主义者变成了保守派。

It just spreads out more generally, and you don’t have to drink the Kool-Aid.

它只是传播得更广泛，而且你不必喝酷爱饮料。

You don’t have to take the official course.

您不必参加官方课程。

Nathaniel Branden goes on to be part of the self-esteem movement, Human Potential Movement, California and Ayn Rand lives another 10 years or so, but she doesn’t do major work after that.

纳撒尼尔·布兰登 (Nathaniel Branden) 继续参与加利福尼亚州人类潜能运动 (Human Potential Movement) 的自尊运动，艾恩·兰德 (Ayn Rand) 又活了 10 年左右，但此后她没有从事任何主要工作。

Since we were talking about some of the all…

既然我们正在谈论其中的一些……

2:59:27 Although rationalized some strange sexual partnerships that their engagement in, I have to ask about The Fountainhead and the, quote, unquote, “Rape scene.” In the Fountainhead.

尽管合理化了他们订婚的一些奇怪的性伙伴关系，但我不得不问一下《源泉》和“强奸场景”。在源头。

Was she intending to add that there to be controversial?

她是想补充说有争议吗？

How we’re supposed to read into it?

我们应该如何解读它？

Is it a glimpse into Ayn Rand’s sexuality?

这是对安·兰德性取向的一瞥吗？

Maybe broadly we can say, “Well, what was her view on sexuality, on sex, on power dynamics in relationships?”

也许我们可以广泛地说，“那么，她对性、性、关系中的权力动态有何看法？”

Yeah, there’s also an objectivist theory of sexuality in that probably the least convincing of all the parts of objectivism.

是的，还有一种关于性的客观主义理论，它可能是客观主义所有部分中最不令人信服的。

3:00:04 And it goes something like, “Your sexual desires express your highest values.” And they are related in some ways to your rationality, right?

它就像是，“你的性欲表达了你的最高价值观。”它们在某种程度上与你的理性有关，对吧？

Which is also related to your highest values.

这也与你的最高价值观有关。

So for her that explained her attraction to Nathaniel Branden and Nathaniel Branden’s attraction to her was a function of their highest values.

因此，对她来说，这解释了她对纳撒尼尔·布兰登的吸引力，而纳撒尼尔·布兰登对她的吸引力是他们最高价值观的函数。

And, in fact, Branden imbibed this so deeply that the fact that he was later drawn sexually to a woman who was not particularly accomplished, but was beautiful, caused him deep anguish and guilt for being non-objectivist.

事实上，布兰登深深地吸收了这一点，以至于后来他被一个并不特别有成就但很美丽的女人所吸引，这让他因自己的非客观主义而感到深深的痛苦和内疚。

This is the objectivist theory.

这就是客观主义理论。

Then the gender politics are just crazy.

那么性别政治就太疯狂了。

We have to back up and think, “Okay, who is Ayn Rand.” She’s born Alisa Rosenbaum in Russia.

我们必须回想一下，“好吧，谁是艾因·兰德。”她出生于俄罗斯，原名艾丽莎·罗森鲍姆。

She is someone who stands out from the crowd from the beginning.

她从一开始就是一个在人群中脱颖而出的人。

3:01:04 She never really fits in.

她从来没有真正融入过。

She’s not conventionally beautiful by any stretch of the imagination.

无论怎么想，她都算不上传统意义上的美丽。

She struggles with her weight and she doesn’t consider herself to have a beautiful face.

她与体重作斗争，而且她不认为自己有一张美丽的脸。

She’s very independent.

她非常独立。

She meets none of the metrics of traditional femininity at all.

她根本不符合任何传统女性气质的标准。

She finds love with a man who is very handsome but very passive.

她爱上了一个非常英俊但非常被动的男人。

Yet she writes in all her fiction about strong manly heroes.

然而她在所有小说中都描写了坚强的男子汉英雄。

There seems to be like a projection.

似乎有一个投影。

The man she’s actually with is not a strong manly hero.

与她真正在一起的男人并不是一个坚强的男子汉英雄。

The hero she writes about, she probably wouldn’t be able to be in the same room with them for more than one minute before they got in a raging argument, right?

她笔下的英雄，大概跟他们待在一个房间的时间不会超过一分钟，他们就会激烈争吵吧？

Then she develops this theory about women and men in that a woman should worship her man, and a woman finds her true expression in worshiping the man she’s with.

然后她发展了这个关于女人和男人的理论，因为女人应该崇拜她的男人，而女人在崇拜与她在一起的男人中找到了她的真正表达。

Again, this is not at all how Ayn Rand lives her life.

再说一遍，这根本不是艾茵·兰德的生活方式。

3:01:59 This is like this.

这是这样的。

I would say compensatory theory for her lack of ability to conform to the gender norms of her day.

我想说的是补偿理论，因为她缺乏符合她那个时代的性别规范的能力。

She then articulates them in a very strong and almost distorted and exaggerated way to compensate for the fact that she doesn’t actually meet them, can’t actually enact them.

然后，她以一种非常强烈、几乎扭曲和夸张的方式阐明它们，以弥补她实际上没有遇到它们、无法真正实现它们的事实。

The rape scene to some degree embodies that idea that to some degree that the woman should worship the man.

强奸场面在某种程度上体现了这样一种观念：女人应该在某种程度上崇拜男人。

I tend to read it more in terms of literary genre.

我更倾向于从文学体裁的角度来阅读它。

Rand is a screenwriter, a consumer of movies, and that rape scene is paradigmatic for the romance genre.

兰德是一名编剧，也是一名电影消费者，强奸场景是爱情片的典范。

In other words, these are like pulpy romance novels.

换句话说，这些就像低俗的言情小说。

The hero rapes the heroine and then they fall in love.

男主角强奸了女主角，然后他们坠入爱河。

That’s just the trope of how it works.

这就是它如何运作的比喻。

3:02:56 It’s crazy when you read it, but if you were reading a bunch of novels in this genre, you would find this is very standard.

你读起来很疯狂，但如果你读了一堆这个类型的小说，你会发现这是非常标准的。

But that is a huge part of this appeal at the time.

但这是当时这种吸引力的很大一部分。

There’s this feminist who hates Rand, Susan Brownmiller, and she wants to write an angry denunciation of the rape scene.

有一位讨厌兰德的女权主义者苏珊·布朗米勒，她想写一篇对强奸场景的愤怒谴责。

So she goes to get The fountainhead and she’s wondering how is she ever going to find the scene in this 800 page book?

于是她去找了《源头》，她想知道如何才能在这本 800 页的书中找到场景？

It’s a library copy because she doesn’t want to buy it, and it just falls open to the rape scene because everybody’s gone and read it because it’s very racy and explicit for that time.

这是一本图书馆的副本，因为她不想买它，而且它只是对强奸场景开放，因为每个人都去读它，因为它在当时非常生动和露骨。

I’m almost positive she also knew that like, “If I put in this kind of taboo-breaking sex scene, that’s also going to probably be why people tell their friends about it.” I think it’s a mess.

我几乎肯定她也知道这一点，比如，“如果我加入这种打破禁忌的性爱场景，这也可能是人们告诉他们的朋友的原因。”我认为这是一团糟。

I think all of the gender and sexuality stuff that she states is just a total mess.

我认为她所说的所有关于性别和性的东西都是一团糟。

I think it also reminds me of another guy related, Friedrich Nietzsche, who had very strong opinions on women and wrote about what women’s role in society should be in different power dynamics and relationships and all that kind of stuff when he himself really had trouble getting laid.

我想这也让我想起了另一个相关的人，弗里德里希·尼采，他对女性有非常强烈的看法，并写下了女性在社会中应该在不同的权力动态和关系中扮演的角色，以及所有类似的东西，而他自己确实很难上床。

3:03:50 You have to as to always maybe chuckle or take with a grain of salt the analysis of power dynamics in relationship from these figures which failed in many regards in their own private life.

你必须总是笑一笑，或者对这些人物对权力动态关系的分析持保留态度，而这些人物在他们自己的私生活中的许多方面都失败了。

You mentioned feminists.

你提到了女权主义者。

Would you consider Ayn Rand a feminist?

您认为艾因·兰德是女权主义者吗？

She’s almost an anti-feminist because she then goes on…

她几乎是一个反女权主义者，因为她接着……

3:04:30 Someone writes her a letter about like, “Should there be a female president?” Or something.

有人给她写了一封信，内容是“应该有一位女总统吗？”或者什么。

This is the beginning of feminism.

这是女权主义的开始。

And she says, “No woman should ever be president because if she’s president, she wouldn’t be able to look up to any man because she would be so powerful, and therefore she would be corrupt and rotten in the soul and unfit to be a leader.” It just makes no sense.

她说，“任何女人都不应该当总统，因为如果她是总统，她就无法尊敬任何男人，因为她会如此强大，因此她的灵魂会腐败、腐烂，不适合成为领导者。”这毫无意义。

But that said, she’s a woman and she’s one of the most powerful intellects in the 20th century.

但话虽如此，她是一名女性，也是 20 世纪最有影响力的知识分子之一。

Yeah.

是的。

The contradictions…

矛盾之处……

3:05:11 Nietzsche’s full of contradictions of this sort.

尼采充满了这样的矛盾。

The very fact that she’s one of the most powerful minds in history, to me, means that she is a feminist in the spirit she embodies, right?

对我来说，她是历史上最有影响力的思想家之一，这一事实本身就意味着她所体现的精神是一位女权主义者，对吗？

In what she represents.

在她所代表的东西中。

She lived the ideals of individualism in her life and set aside gender norms in her own life, but she did not see herself as doing this for the benefit of other women or to change society’s views about women.

她在生活中奉行个人主义理想，并在自己的生活中抛开性别规范，但她并不认为自己这样做是为了其他女性的利益或改变社会对女性的看法。

3:05:31 There was no collective essence to it.

它没有集体本质。

If feminism has some sort of collective aspect to it, or at least some identification, one needs to identify with a broader category of women and feel they’re acting on behalf of that, she’s definitely not doing that.

如果女权主义有某种集体的一面，或者至少有某种认同，人们需要认同更广泛的女性类别，并感觉她们是在代表这一群体行事，那么她绝对不会这样做。

She was fair to women in her life, promoted them in her life, but did not…

她在生活中对女性公平，在生活中提拔她们，但却没有……

She was very negative about feminism, because they dressed terribly.

她对女权主义非常消极，因为她们的穿着很糟糕。

Then the other thing, it’s really interesting, there’s all these kind of homoerotic themes in her writing.

然后另一件事，这真的很有趣，她的作品中有所有这些同性恋主题。

For that reason, many gay men were drawn to her writing, and then she would say like, ” Homosexuals are dirty, terrible people.”

出于这个原因，许多男同性恋者被她的作品所吸引，然后她会说，“同性恋者是肮脏、可怕的人。”

3:06:32 She would denounce people for being homosexual.

她会谴责人们是同性恋。

There’s a whole actual literature of gay men wrestling with Rand and what she says about gay people.

有大量关于同性恋者与兰德摔跤的真实文学作品，以及她对同性恋者的看法。

Yeah, it’s hard to make sense of.

是的，很难理解。

I want to be charitable.

我想做慈善。

I just think of the enormous pressure she was under in the culture she was raised in, the expectations that were placed upon her, and her just utter inability to meet any of them.

我只是想到她在成长的文化中所承受的巨大压力，对她的期望，以及她完全无法满足其中任何一个。

And it came out in this very tortured set of ideals that she tried to promote.

它是在她试图宣扬的这套非常折磨人的理想中出现的。

And this lack of ability was probably too painful to introspect and to think about that.

而这种能力的缺乏可能太痛苦了，以至于无法反思和思考这一点。

So she just tried to rationalize her way through it, and it came out in these very strange theories.

所以她只是试图合理化自己的方式，结果却出现了这些非常奇怪的理论。

Why do you think that Ayn Rand is…

你为什么认为安·兰德是……

3:07:21 Maybe you can correct me, but as far as I can see, never mentioned in the list of great thinkers in history or even the great thinkers of the 20th century or even the great female thinkers of the 20th century.

也许你可以纠正我，但据我所知，历史上伟大的思想家甚至20世纪伟大的思想家甚至20世纪伟大的女性思想家的名单中都没有提到过。

You have somebody like Simone de Beauvoir, Hannah Arendt.

你有像西蒙娜·德·波伏瓦、汉娜·阿伦特这样的人。

I almost never see her in the list.

我几乎从未在名单上看到过她。

Yeah.

是的。

If you Google those silly list whatever top thinkers of the 20th century, she’s not mentioned.

如果你用谷歌搜索那些愚蠢的 20 世纪顶尖思想家名单，你会发现她没有被提及。

3:07:43 Why is that?

这是为什么？

A lot of people just deeply dislike Rand.

很多人就是非常不喜欢兰德。

3:07:52 They deeply dislike her ideas.

他们非常不喜欢她的想法。

They don’t think they’re profound because their disconnection from other ideas and other understandings of human society.

他们认为自己的观点并不深刻，因为他们与人类社会的其他思想和理解脱节。

I think [inaudible 03:08:06] you could look at them and say, “These ideas are very provocative and they’re very deep because she’s not taking anything for granted, and she’s flipping everything around and forcing you to really think.” To a lot of other readers, to her critics, they just look absurd.

我认为 [听不清 03:08:06] 你可以看着它们并说，“这些想法非常具有挑衅性，而且非常深刻，因为她不会认为任何事情都是理所当然的，她正在翻转一切并迫使你真正思考。”对于许多其他读者和她的批评者来说，它们看起来很荒谬。

How could you even make these contentions?

你怎么能提出这些争论呢？

And I think that because she…

我认为这是因为她……

She’s not without precedence and she’s not without followers, but she doesn’t knit herself into an intellectual community the way that these other thinkers do very naturally.

她并不是没有先例，也不是没有追随者，但她并没有像其他思想家那样自然地把自己融入一个知识分子群体。

You can see who they influence.

你可以看到他们影响了谁。

You can see who they’re in dialogue with.

您可以看到他们正在与谁对话。

I think my book was one of the first to really take Rand and say, “She’s a figure in American history.

我认为我的书是第一本真正对兰德说：“她是美国历史上的人物。

Here’s who she’s connected to.

这是她的联系对象。

Here’s who she’s influenced.”

这就是她受到影响的人。”

3:08:54 And I got a lot of pushback for that.

为此我受到了很多阻力。

I think now people are more open to it, but I think the people who compile these lists really dislike her work and they think it’s shallow because they find her fiction overdrawn.

我认为现在人们对此更加开放，但我认为编制这些列表的人真的不喜欢她的作品，他们认为它很肤浅，因为他们发现她的小说透支了。

They find her work, in the mythic register, simple.

他们发现她的作品在神话中很简单。

And she’s also a grand systematic thinker in an age that’s over systems.

她也是一个超越系统的时代的一位伟大的系统思想家。

She’s almost creating an inverse Marxism, right?

她几乎是在创造一个逆马克思主义，对吗？

Marx was writing in 1848.

马克思于 1848 年写作。

He’s not a thinker of the mid 20th century.

他不是20世纪中期的思想家。

I think that’s part of it, the lack of a legacy and the dislike of what she had to say, and the feeling that she’s too detached.

我认为这是其中的一部分，缺乏遗产和不喜欢她所说的话，以及她太超然的感觉。

Her insights are not insights because they’re too idealized rather than being rooted in a theory of human nature that people find plausible.

她的见解之所以不是见解，是因为它们过于理想化，而不是植根于人们认为合理的人性理论。

You study and write about history of ideas in the United States over the past 100 plus years.

您研究并撰写美国过去 100 多年的思想史。

3:09:48 How do you think ideas evolve and gain power over the populace, over our government, over culture, just looking at evolution of ideas as they dance and challenge each other and play in public discourse?

你认为思想如何演变并获得对民众、对我们的政府、对文化的影响力，只要看看思想在公共话语中跳舞、相互挑战和发挥作用时的演变？

What do you think is the mechanism by which they take hold and have influence?

您认为他们发挥作用并发挥影响力的机制是什么？

Yeah, there’s a couple different ways, I think, it happens.

是的，我认为有几种不同的方式可以实现这种情况。

3:10:19 I really am interested in the relationship between the thinker and then the reader and the interpreter of the ideas, and then the conditions on the ground that make that idea resonate or not resonate.

我真的很感兴趣的是思想家、读者和思想解释者之间的关系，以及使该思想产生共鸣或不产生共鸣的实际条件。

I think a lot.

我想了很多。

As an intellectual historian, I’m studying the ideas.

作为一名思想史学家，我正在研究这些思想。

I’m always putting them in their historical context like, “What is happening that is making these things resonate?

我总是把它们放在历史背景中，比如“正在发生什么事情让这些东西产生共鸣？

That is making them…

这让他们……

People seek them out.

人们寻找他们。

For Rand’s case, she has this credibility because of her experience of communism.

对于兰德来说，她之所以有这样的可信度，是因为她有共产主义的经历。

She’s one of these defining moments of the time.

她是当时的决定性时刻之一。

Then I think the idea comes out in a pure form, and then other people rework it and reshape it as they read it.

然后我认为这个想法以纯粹的形式出现，然后其他人在阅读它时对其进行修改和重塑。

And I’m really interested in how people form communities around these ideas.

我对人们如何围绕这些想法形成社区非常感兴趣。

A bunch of people started calling themselves objectivists and getting together to read Rand’s work.

一群人开始自称为客观主义者，并聚在一起阅读兰德的著作。

That was spontaneous and ground up.

这是自发的、经过深思熟虑的。

It wasn’t supported by any money.

它没有得到任何金钱的支持。

Nobody planned it.

没有人计划它。

It just happened.

它就这样发生了。

3:11:29 Friedman’s a different case in that he joins an established tradition of thought that’s been institutionalized in universities.

弗里德曼则不同，他加入了大学中制度化的既定思想传统。

So people are signing up and paying money and getting credential to learn these ideas.

因此，人们正在注册、付费并获得证书来学习这些想法。

To my mind, these are two different ways but really emblematic ways of how ideas spread.

在我看来，这是两种不同的方式，但却是思想传播的真正象征性方式。

Rand, I think of as more bottom up.

兰德，我认为更多的是自下而上。

People encounter the idea in a book.

人们在书中遇到这个想法。

They’re blown away by it, or they imbibe it without even realizing they’re imbibing it, and then they’re like, “Well, maybe I don’t like Franklin Roosevelt so much.” Or, “Maybe I’ll look at another time at Barry Goldwater.” Then whereas Friedman, you get the idea more top down.

他们被它震撼了，或者他们吸收了它，甚至没有意识到自己正在吸收它，然后他们会说，“好吧，也许我不太喜欢富兰克林·罗斯福。”或者，“也许我会再看看巴里·戈德华特。”然后，与弗里德曼相比，你可以更自上而下地理解这个想法。

I know I’m getting the idea.

我知道我明白了。

I know I’m being positioned within a elite discourse of economics.

我知道我正处于经济学精英话语之中。

I think they go top-down and bottom-up, and then they hit the events, right?

我认为他们是自上而下和自下而上的，然后他们就击中了事件，对吧？

3:12:16 Friedman’s ideas wouldn’t have gone anywhere without that episode of stagflation that really made people think they proved out.

如果没有那场滞胀事件，弗里德曼的想法就不会取得任何进展，那次滞胀确实让人们认为这些想法已经被证明是正确的。

And I think Rand’s ideas really caught fire in Cold War America, that’s looking for a statement of like, “What does it mean to be an individual?

我认为兰德的想法在冷战时期的美国确实很受欢迎，他正在寻找这样的声明：“作为一个个体意味着什么？

What does it mean to live in this mass society?” Because it’s also a time of great social conformity, where people are suddenly…

生活在这个大众社会意味着什么？”因为这也是一个社会高度整合的时代，人们突然……

They’re working for large corporations.

他们为大公司工作。

They’ve been served in a large military.

他们曾在一支大型军队中服役。

The United States is stepping out onto the world stage.

美国正在走向世界舞台。

Everything is bigger.

一切都更大了。

What does it mean to be an individual in that world?

作为一个个体生活在那个世界意味着什么？

That’s where Rand’s ideas catch fire.

这就是兰德的想法点燃的地方。

I think a lot about that.

我对此想了很多。

About how they trickle through different levels of society, and then how ideas collide with experience I think is critical.

关于它们如何渗透到社会的不同层面，以及想法如何与经验相碰撞，我认为至关重要。

What do you think about when they actually take power in government?

当他们真正掌权时你会怎么想？

3:13:04 I think about ideas like Marxism and how that evolves into the Bolshevik Revolution and how that takes hold in its implementations.

我思考马克思主义等思想，以及它如何演变成布尔什维克革命，以及它如何在其实施中扎根。

Or you can think about Nazism and with Hitler where it goes from a small number of people that get real excited about a thing and then somehow just becomes viral and takes hold in power, and then that has its consequences.

或者你可以想想纳粹主义和希特勒，它是由一小部分人对某件事感到真正兴奋，然后以某种方式变得病毒式传播并掌权，然后产生其后果。

When I think about this sort of historical path of communism and the logics and dynamics of communism, in many ways it has some echoes with Rand in that the ideology in its purest form is almost…

当我思考共产主义的这种历史路径以及共产主义的逻辑和动力时，它在很多方面与兰德有一些共鸣，因为最纯粹的意识形态几乎是……

3:13:30 It’s a rationalist ideology of some ways.

从某种程度上来说，这是一种理性主义意识形态。

It’s an analysis of history and how things are supposed to be.

这是对历史和事物应该如何发展的分析。

I think you mentioned Hannah Arendt.

我想你提到了汉娜·阿伦特。

I think she is one of the most penetrating analyses of communism, which she really puts in category, like it’s a logical ideology.

我认为她是对共产主义分析最深入的人之一，她确实将其归类，就像它是一种逻辑意识形态一样。

Logic leads inexorably to its conclusions, and then experience crops up and experience is different.

逻辑无情地得出结论，然后经验就会出现，而且经验会有所不同。

And what does a cult of rationality do when it hits experience?

当理性崇拜遇到经验时会发生什么？

Well, it tries to bend experience to its will.

嗯，它试图让经验屈服于它的意志。

That, I think, is really the story of communism writ large.

我认为，这确实是共产主义的故事。

3:14:25 The question though is why does it catch fire?

但问题是它为什么会着火？

Why does it draw people into political allegiance?

为什么它能吸引人们的政治忠诚？

I think in the case of communism, it’s this dream of a more ethical world, dream of equality, dream of the powerless rising up against the powerful.

我认为就共产主义而言，这是一个更加道德的世界的梦想，平等的梦想，弱者反抗强者的梦想。

That’s drawn in so many.

这吸引了很多人。

Then you had the whole edition of Leninism, which gave a international cast to that and helped people think about what are the relations between poorer and richer countries and what can we expect out of them and what might happen.

然后是整版的列宁主义，它为这一点提供了国际化的视角，帮助人们思考穷国和富国之间的关系，以及我们对它们的期望以及可能发生的情况。

Gave us a framework for thinking about that in a time when the world was becoming more interconnected and those differences were becoming more obvious.

在世界变得更加互联、这些差异变得更加明显的时代，为我们提供了一个思考这一问题的框架。

Fascism to me is unleashing more something dark and primal within people, and it’s more a permission structure to indulge in that that is normally not there.

对我来说，法西斯主义释放了人们内心更多的黑暗和原始的东西，它更像是一种允许沉迷于通常不存在的东西的许可结构。

Those impulses are normally channeled or held down, and it seems that when the fascist regimes come into power, they give people permission to let those forces out.

这些冲动通常会被引导或抑制，而且当法西斯政权上台时，他们似乎允许人们释放这些力量。

I think on communism, going back to that lecture that Ayn Rand gave, I think what rings true to me a little bit is that what fuels it is a kind of…

我认为关于共产主义，回到艾因·兰德的演讲，我认为对我来说有点真实的是，推动它的是一种……

3:15:32 Maybe not resentment, but envy towards the have-nots versus the haves.

也许不是怨恨，而是对穷人与富人的嫉妒。

And there’s some degree to wish Nazism has the same envy towards some group, resentment towards some group.

在某种程度上，我们希望纳粹主义对某些群体也有同样的嫉妒、怨恨。

Given the environment of hard times, hard economic times, combined with a more primal, just envy of not having and seeing somebody who has it and just constructing a narrative around that.

考虑到困难时期、经济困难时期的环境，再加上一种更原始的、只是嫉妒的想法，即没有拥有和看到拥有它的人，并围绕它构建一个叙述。

That can become a real viral idea.

这可以成为一个真正的病毒式创意。

Yeah, it seems like communism is more animated by this idea of injustice.

是的，共产主义似乎对这种不公正的想法更加感兴趣。

3:16:19 The world is unjust.

世界是不公平的。

It should be different.

应该有所不同。

And fascism seems like the process of scapegoating, right?

法西斯主义似乎是寻找替罪羊的过程，对吧？

We’ve identified the source of the problem, and it’s this group and they need to be punished for what they’ve done to the rest of us.

我们已经确定了问题的根源，那就是这个群体，他们需要因为他们对我们其他人所做的事情而受到惩罚。

There is a primal thing going back to literature in 1984, Two Minutes of Hate, where you can get everybody real excited about hating a thing.

1984 年的文学中有一个最原始的东西，《两分钟的仇恨》，你可以让每个人都因为讨厌一件事而真正兴奋。

3:16:40 There’s something primal about us humans where once you’re in that state of hate, anyone can direct that hate towards anything.

我们人类有一种原始的东西，一旦你处于仇恨的状态，任何人都可以将这种仇恨引向任何事物。

Towards any group, towards any idea, towards anything.

对于任何团体，对于任何想法，对于任何事物。

We could get caught up in the mass hysteria of the hatred.

我们可能会陷入大规模的歇斯底里的仇恨之中。

It’s a dangerous thing.

这是一件危险的事情。

You floated the idea, I forget where, of pivoting for your next book towards maybe writing about postmodernism, which is a set of ideas almost the opposite of Ayn Rand’s philosophy.

你提出了一个想法，我忘了在哪里，你的下一本书可能会转向写后现代主义，这是一组几乎与安兰德哲学相反的想法。

Can you maybe explain your curiosity about, first of all, spaces of ideas, but maybe postmodernism?

您能否解释一下您对思想空间（首先是后现代主义）的好奇心？

Yeah, I think in the broadest sense, what I’m interested in, kind of two dimensions, that guide me in doing intellectual history.

是的，我认为从最广泛的意义上来说，我感兴趣的东西，有点二维，引导我研究思想史。

3:17:40 One is what I talked about, like how does an idea go from a book, an elite space, out to more popular dimensions?

一个是我谈到的，比如一个想法如何从一本书、一个精英空间，走向更流行的维度？

How does that happen?

这是怎么发生的？

What happens to the idea along the way?

这个想法一路走来会发生什么？

How is it distorted or changed?

它是如何被扭曲或改变的？

And the other is just search for meaning in a post-Christian era or a secular era.

另一种是在后基督教时代或世俗时代寻找意义。

Like, “What are people coming up with?” And I think to replace that void in their religious or spiritual lives, I think both Rand and Friedman offered these alternatives, right?

比如，“人们想出了什么？”我认为为了弥补他们宗教或精神生活中的空白，我认为兰德和弗里德曼都提供了这些替代方案，对吧？

Objectivism, quasi-rationalist religion.

客观主义，准理性主义宗教。

People take economics as a theory of the world that you can almost believe in it, right?

人们把经济学当作一种你几乎可以相信的世界理论，对吗？

It can almost take that place.

它几乎可以占据那个位置。

And in both cases, how did those ideas travel?

在这两种情况下，这些想法是如何传播的？

When I think about postmodernism, it first struck me…

当我想到后现代主义时，我首先想到的是……

If you read the original postmodern thinkers, it’s really tough going.

如果你读过后现代思想家的原作，那真的很难。

3:18:40 I make my students do it, and they suffer.

我让我的学生这样做，但他们却受苦了。

I think they see it’s worthwhile, but it’s no fun to read Derrida.

我认为他们认为这是值得的，但阅读德里达并不有趣。

But somehow it’s trickled down into how do we go from Derrida to Tumblr?

但不知何故，它逐渐渗透到我们如何从德里达走向 Tumblr？

And I realized like, “Oh, this has happened with postmodernism.” It’s followed the same path, say, from Milton Friedman’s economic theory to free to choose on YouTube.

我意识到，“哦，这已经发生在后现代主义身上了。”例如，从米尔顿·弗里德曼的经济理论到 YouTube 上的自由选择，它都遵循同样的道路。

We’ve had a similar path of high French theory down to Tumblr, and I sexually identify as an attack helicopter or whatever it may be.

我们在 Tumblr 上也经历过类似的法国高级理论，我的性别认同是攻击直升机或其他什么东西。

That was really interesting.

这真的很有趣。

Then I also thought, “Well…” At the same time, this is clearly a structure of meaning.

然后我又想：“嗯……”同时，这显然是一种意义的结构。

And I actually think it’s followed the same path of objectivism, which is distilled down and then turning into its opposite.

事实上，我认为它遵循了客观主义的同样道路，即被提炼出来，然后变成它的对立面。

3:19:31 So if objectivism was a group of people who considered themselves individualists, who ended up deeply conforming to the dictates of a charismatic leader.

因此，如果客观主义是一群自认为个人主义者的人，他们最终会深深地服从一位魅力型领导人的指令。

Postmodernism started about disrupting binaries.

后现代主义始于破坏二进制。

We’re going to be fluid.

我们将会变得流畅。

We’re going to go beyond the border.

我们将超越边界。

We’re going to disrupt the binary.

我们要破坏二进制文件。

And it’s devolved in its popular forms to the re-inscribing of many different binaries.

它以其流行的形式转移到许多不同二进制文件的重新刻录。

Oppressor and oppressed has become this paradigmatic set of glasses you put on to understand the world.

压迫者和被压迫者已经成为你用来了解世界的典型眼镜。

I think the dynamics are very, very similar.

我认为动态非常非常相似。

I think it’s something in the traffic of the idea from its pure form to its popular form, and then how it gets politicized or mobilized in different ways.

我认为这是思想从纯粹形式到流行形式的传播过程，以及它如何以不同方式政治化或动员起来的过程。

And behind it all, I think, is this human longing for meaning and the inadequacy of the traditional ways that need was met at this point in time.

我认为，这一切的背后是人类对意义的渴望，以及目前满足需求的传统方式的不足。

By the way, going from pure form to popular form, I remember…

顺便说一下，从纯粹形式到流行形式，我记得……

3:20:22 This might be before the internet, but when I was in college reading Derrida and Foucault, not knowing context at all, it wasn’t interesting.

这可能是在互联网出现之前，但当我在大学读德里达和福柯时，根本不了解背景，这并不有趣。

All right.

好吧。

I’m able to read pure encapsulations of an idea and just like, “Oh, all right, well that person believes that.” And you just hold it.

我能够读懂一个想法的纯粹封装，就像，“哦，好吧，好吧，那个人相信这一点。”你只需握住它。

But if you actually take the pure form of that idea and then it creates a community around it, you realize what that actually becomes and you’re like, “Oh, yeah no.

但如果你真的采取了这个想法的纯粹形式，然后它围绕它创建了一个社区，你就会意识到它实际上会变成什么，你会说，“哦，是的，不。

I don’t…” That’s not…

我不……”这不是……

Although I do consider myself sexually an attack helicopter, that identify sexually.

虽然我确实认为自己在性方面是一架攻击直升机，但在性方面却认同。

That’s beautiful.

太漂亮了。

Okay, your process of researching for, let’s see, the biographies of Milton Friedman and Ayn Rand seems like an insane amount of work.

好吧，让我们看看，你研究米尔顿·弗里德曼和艾因·兰德传记的过程似乎是一项疯狂的工作量。

Yeah.

是的。

You did incredible work there, going to the original sources…

你在那里做了令人难以置信的工作，寻找原始来源......

3:21:20 Can you maybe speak to that?

你能谈谈吗？

What is required to persevere and to go for so many years, to go so deep to the sources?

需要什么才能坚持这么多年，深入到源头？

Yeah, I go to the archive.

是的，我去档案馆。

3:21:39 That’s where I feel like I’m communing with the dead in some ways.

这就是我感觉自己在以某种方式与死者交流的地方。

I’m seeing what they saw in some ways and reading what they felt.

我在某种程度上看到了他们所看到的，并读到了他们的感受。

I tell my doctoral students, “It’s got to be something that gets you out of bed in the morning, because there comes a point in your doctoral career when there’s nowhere to go.

我告诉我的博士生，“这必须是能让你早上起床的东西，因为在你的博士生涯中，到了某个阶段，你就无处可去了。

There’s nowhere to be.

无处可去。

You got to be getting up because you’re interested in what you want to study.” And so with Rand, it was this real sense of discovery.

你必须起床，因为你对你想学习的东西感兴趣。”对于兰德来说，这就是真正意义上的发现。

I am discovering.

我正在发现。

I want to know about this woman.

我想了解这个女人。

I want to know where she fits.

我想知道她适合什么位置。

And the only way to find out is to do the research.

找出答案的唯一方法就是进行研究。

3:22:13 Yeah, I like to go deep.

是的，我喜欢深入。

It’s really interesting to me.

这对我来说真的很有趣。

And I should say in both of these cases, I’ve done it in an institutional structure.

我应该说，在这两种情况下，我都是在制度结构中完成的。

I don’t know that I would do it independently.

我不知道我会独立完成这件事。

The first was a graduate program in history, was at UC Berkeley.

第一个是历史学研究生课程，位于加州大学伯克利分校。

I had coursework.

我有课程作业。

Then I had structures, and I did have people to check in with and read, but I had a great deal of latitude.

然后我有了结构，也确实有人可以检查和阅读，但我有很大的自由度。

I’m very grateful for…

我非常感谢……

People are like, “You wrote a dissertation on Ayn Rand at Berkeley?” I’m like, “Yeah, hell, I did.” Berkeley’s like…

人们会问，“你在伯克利写了一篇关于艾因·兰德的论文？”我想，“是的，见鬼，我做到了。”伯克利就像……

It’s a great place.

这是一个很棒的地方。

At the time I was there, there was absolute room for free inquiry.

我当时在那里，绝对有免费询问的空间。

Oh, can you just linger on that?

哦，你能再坚持一下吗？

3:22:49 When you said that you’re doing that and doing a dissertation on Ayn Rand, was there…

当你说你正在做那件事并写一篇关于艾因·兰德的论文时，是不是……

Did people get upset?

人们感到不安吗？

No.

不。

3:23:00 I did have a friendly critic who took it upon himself to throw at me everything he thought the outside world would throw at me.

我确实有一位友好的批评家，他自以为是地向我扔了他认为外界会扔给我的一切。

I think maybe 5 or 10 years earlier, it wouldn’t have been possible.

我认为也许在 5 或 10 年前，这是不可能的。

But the most important thing I had to…

但最重要的是我必须……

The person I really had to convince this was worth doing was myself, because I knew it was an unconventional choice for the field and for a dissertation.

我真正必须说服的人是我自己，因为我知道这对于这个领域和论文来说是一个非常规的选择。

But once I convinced myself, I just said, “Well, I’m going to do this and see.” And because it was unconventional, it ended up standing out.

但一旦我说服了自己，我就说：“好吧，我要做一下看看。”因为它是非传统的，所以它最终脱颖而出。

And it really was the time…

确实是时候了……

I started it during second Bush administration, George W.

我在布什第二届政府乔治·W·布什 (George W.

Bush, second term.

布什，第二任期。

People were interested in just conservatism in general.

人们一般只对保守主义感兴趣。

No matter where they stood on the political spectrum, felt like objectively we don’t know enough about this and this is a problem, so they were open to learning more.

无论他们站在政治光谱的哪个位置，客观地感觉我们对此了解不够，这是一个问题，所以他们愿意了解更多。

I really caught that wave in scholarship and caught that wave in American culture where people wanted to know more.

我确实抓住了学术浪潮，抓住了人们想要了解更多的美国文化浪潮。

We should probably say that Ayn Rand at the very-

我们或许应该说，艾因·兰德 (Ayn Rand) 最初——

3:24:00 Probably say that.

大概是这么说吧。

Ayn Rand is, at the very least, as you’ve mentioned, a kind of gateway to conservatism.

正如你所提到的，艾因·兰德至少是通往保守主义的门户。

Yes.

是的。

3:24:07 I called her the gateway drug in that people start with Rand.

我称她为入门毒品，因为人们从兰德开始。

They’re taken by her.

他们被她带走了。

In some ways, she takes the worldview of Milton Friedman in terms of what capitalism can accomplish economically.

在某些方面，她接受了米尔顿·弗里德曼关于资本主义在经济上可以实现的目标的世界观。

And then she puts it in this mythopoetic register, and she fictionalizes it.

然后她将其放入神话诗的寄存器中，并将其虚构化。

So once people have absorbed that, they want more.

因此，一旦人们吸收了这一点，他们就会想要更多。

They go on to learning more of the ideas behind that vision, or they have become true believers.

他们继续学习更多这一愿景背后的想法，或者他们已经成为真正的信徒。

They’ve converted.

他们已经转变了。

3:24:36 And so then they head off to work for a politician, to work for a think tank, to work for a party.

然后他们就开始为政客工作，为智囊团工作，为政党工作。

t’s absolute traffic.

t是绝对流量。

Now, not everyone.

现在，不是每个人。

There’s plenty of people who read Ayn Rand who don’t take the politics in.

很多读过安·兰德的书的人并不关心政治。

It’s a nice story.

这是一个很好的故事。

It’s interesting, just an episode in their life.

这很有趣，只是他们生活中的一个插曲。

But for others, it’s really foundational.

但对于其他人来说，这确实是基础。

It really changes them.

这确实改变了他们。

3:24:52 So those were the people I wanted to track very deliberately.

所以这些人就是我想要非常刻意追踪的人。

I wasn’t trying to do in the round everything about Ayn Rand.

我并没有试图全面完成有关安·兰德的所有事情。

I was like Ayn Rand and the American Right, Goddess of the Market.

我就像安·兰德和美国右派、市场女神。

Ayn Rand and the American Right is the title.

书名是《安·兰德与美国右翼》。

So where did they take her, those who took her in this political direction?

那么那些把她带向这个政治方向的人把她带到了哪里呢？

What difference did she make?

她带来了什么改变？

If we return to the actual your process, so you’re showing up, you’re reading sources.

如果我们回到你的实际流程，那么你就会出现，你就会阅读源代码。

3:25:10 And you’re like, “Is it like the process of discovery?” You’re just taking it all in and seeing what unifying ideas emerge, or maybe special moments that illustrate an idea emerge?

你会想，“这就像发现的过程吗？”你只是把这一切都考虑进去，看看会出现什么统一的想法，或者也许会出现说明一个想法的特殊时刻？

Yeah.

是的。

3:25:32 I know with the biography of a person, I am already given a start and an end date and a rough narrative of what happens.

我知道，通过一个人的传记，我已经知道了开始和结束日期以及所发生事情的粗略叙述。

So I have a structure.

所以我有一个结构。

And then, both with Rand and Friedman, I started by reading their major books before I really read anything about them because I wanted my own experience of the material to be fresh.

然后，对于兰德和弗里德曼，我首先阅读他们的主要书籍，然后再真正阅读有关他们的任何内容，因为我希望自己对这些材料的体验是新鲜的。

And I had read some Ayn Rand, but not a lot.

我读过一些安·兰德的书，但不是很多。

3:25:57 Similarly, I had read some Friedman, but not a lot.

同样，我读过一些弗里德曼的书，但不是很多。

So I first is like, “Let me read the major stuff, get oriented,” and then just dive into the archive and see what’s there.

所以我首先会说，“让我阅读主要内容，了解一下方向”，然后深入到档案中，看看里面有什么。

Who are they talking to?

他们在跟谁说话？

What’s going on?

发生了什么事？

in Rand’s case, I was interested in her in the United States, not her in Russia.

就兰德而言，我对美国的她感兴趣，而不是俄罗斯的她。

I didn’t have the language skills to do that.

我没有语言能力来做到这一点。

So I start her in the United States, and I start when she publishes her first book, and she starts getting letters.

所以我在美国开始了她的工作，当她出版她的第一本书时我就开始了，她开始收到信件。

And who is she writing to?

她写信给谁？

Who’s writing to her?

谁给她写信？

3:26:27 And then I start to uncover this world of nascent conservatism.

然后我开始揭开这个新生保守主义的世界。

And I’m putting that together.

我正在把它们放在一起。

And once I have enough, I say, “Well, that’s a chapter.” I’m going to cover that chapter.

一旦我读够了，我就会说：“好吧，这就是一章了。”我将介绍这一章。

And then there’s going to be the book has come out.

然后这本书就会出版。

And so now, I need to start a different chapter.

所以现在，我需要开始一个不同的章节。

What’s her life after the book has been published?

这本书出版后她的生活怎么样？

3:26:44 And then I look for that.

然后我寻找那个。

Although I have this very high level structure, it’s coming out of the archive, the material I’m finding.

虽然我有这个非常高层次的结构，但它来自档案馆，我正在找到的材料。

And if I’m not finding the material there, I won’t cover it in great detail, or if I’ve decided it’s outside my ambit, I’m not going to go into great depth on it.

如果我在那里找不到材料，我就不会详细介绍它，或者如果我认为它超出了我的范围，我就不会深入研究它。

And you’re trying to understand the relationships.

你正试图理解这些关系。

3:27:02 It’s so fascinating, like reconstruct in a dark room, trying to reconstruct, shine a light on relationships through reading letters.

这太令人着迷了，就像在黑暗的房间里重建一样，试图通过阅读信件来重建、照亮人际关系。

It’s interesting.

这很有趣。

Yeah.

是的。

3:27:13 Yeah.

是的。

Correspondence is really, really helpful, drafts, correspondence.

信件真的非常非常有帮助，草稿，信件。

And someone this famous, they have oral histories.

这么有名的人，他们都有口述历史。

Other people write about them.

其他人也写到了它们。

So you’re reading all these different things and triangulating and trying to put them together and then think about how do I present this in a compelling story, and what do I need to explain?

所以你正在阅读所有这些不同的东西，并进行三角测量，试图将它们放在一起，然后思考我如何在一个引人入胜的故事中呈现这些内容，以及我需要解释什么？

3:27:34 And then also for me, what was really helpful is that because I teach and I am explaining the broad sweep of 20th century history, so I know that Rand’s involved in a labor action at Warner Brothers, but through my teaching, I realized, “Oh, yes, this is a moment of labor strikes across the country.”

对我来说，真正有帮助的是，因为我教书，我正在解释 20 世纪历史的广泛内容，所以我知道兰德参与了华纳兄弟的劳工行动，但通过我的教学，我意识到，“哦，是的，这是全国各地劳工罢工的时刻。”

3:27:53 And so then that really changes the origin story of Atlas Shrugged because she’s looking at labor actions, and she originally thinking of the book as being called The Strike.

因此，这确实改变了《阿特拉斯耸耸肩》的起源故事，因为她正在研究劳工行动，而她最初认为这本书被称为《罢工》。

So she’s really responding in real time and being inspired by what’s happening in the mid-1940s in the United States.

所以她确实在实时做出反应，并受到 20 世纪 40 年代中期美国发生的事情的启发。

So then I can take that and run with that and figure out where to go.

然后我就可以接受它并运行它并弄清楚该去哪里。

So you’re super passionate about teaching.

所以你对教学非常热情。

3:28:16 You mentioned Milton Friedman had a very interesting way of teaching.

您提到米尔顿·弗里德曼的教学方式非常有趣。

So how do you think of teaching, teaching history, teaching history of ideas, teaching bright young minds about the past?

那么，您如何看待教学，教学历史，教学思想史，教学聪明的年轻人关于过去的思想？

Yeah.

是的。

3:28:33 It’s great.

太棒了。

It’s really inspiring the ways the old school dominating way in which Friedman taught would not fly in today’s university wouldn’t be permitted.

这真的很鼓舞人心，弗里德曼教学的旧学校主导方式在今天的大学不会被允许。

And also, the students wouldn’t respond to it.

而且，学生们也不会对此做出回应。

So I try to share my enthusiasm.

所以我尝试分享我的热情。

I think that’s almost the number one thing I bring, is my enthusiasm.

我认为这几乎是我带来的第一件事，那就是我的热情。

Look how neat and interesting these ideas are.

看看这些想法是多么简洁和有趣。

3:28:56 I try to keep my own views out pretty much.

我尽量不表达自己的观点。

I try to give the fairest possible rendition I can of each thinker.

我尽力尽可能公平地诠释每个思想家。

If I find someone really disturbing, I might side bar at the end of the lecture and say, “I find this unsettling, and this tells me something about myself.” But most of the time, I’m bringing people into the biography of a great thinker, the context of them.

如果我发现某人真的令人不安，我可能会在讲座结束时说：“我觉得这令人不安，这告诉了我一些关于我自己的事情。”但大多数时候，我会把人们带入一位伟大思想家的传记中，带入他们的背景。

And then, in the lecture, we’ll literally read the work together, and we’ll talk about it.

然后，在讲座中，我们将一起阅读该作品，然后进行讨论。

3:29:24 And I’ll ask the students, “What are you finding here?

我会问学生：“你们在这里发现了什么？

What’s jumping out at you?” Kind of breaking down the language and really teaching them how to do deep reading.

你有什么事吗？有点分解语言并真正教他们如何进行深度阅读。

So I feel like that is my contribution right now.

所以我觉得这就是我现在的贡献。

We’re having trouble reading collectively.

我们在集体阅读时遇到了困难。

We’re having trouble paying attention collectively, and I’m trying to cultivate their skills to doing that and showing them how I do it, and also modeling like, “This is how I would read a text.

我们在集中注意力方面遇到了困难，我正在努力培养他们的技能，并向他们展示我是如何做到这一点的，同时也做出示范，“这就是我阅读文本的方式。

This is what jumps out to me when I look at Thomas Kuhn or something like this,” and just show them that studying a history of ideas is really fun.

当我看到托马斯·库恩或类似的东西时，我就会想到这一点，”并向他们展示研究思想史真的很有趣。

I feel incredibly privileged to do it.

我感到非常荣幸能够做到这一点。

3:30:00 And the other thing is, I think this is the time for students in college figuring out who they are.

另一件事是，我认为现在是大学生弄清楚自己是谁的时候了。

Their minds are developing and growing.

他们的思想正在发展和成长。

They can really handle complicated hard ideas.

他们确实可以处理复杂的困难想法。

They don’t always have the context behind them.

他们并不总是有背后的背景。

So I need to give them the hard ideas and then show them this is kind of the context of what’s happening in the world.

所以我需要给他们一些困难的想法，然后向他们展示这就是世界上正在发生的事情的背景。

But really, I’m showing them the landscape.

但实际上，我正在向他们展示风景。

I don’t have time to go deep.

我没有时间深入。

We have a 10-week quarter giving them a flyover.

我们有一个为期 10 周的季度，给他们一个飞越的机会。

And then I want them to know how to go deep and know where they want to go deep.

然后我希望他们知道如何深入并知道他们想要深入的地方。

Do the thing that Milton Friedman did, which is in parallel, [inaudible 03:30:39] books.

做米尔顿·弗里德曼（Milton Friedman）所做的事情，这是并行的，[听不清 03:30:39] 书籍。

Yes.

是的。

3:30:38 Do their own parallel curriculum.

做自己的平行课程。

Exactly.

正是如此。

Exactly.

正是如此。

What advice would you give in terms of reading about ideas you agree with and reading ideas do you disagree with?

在阅读你同意的观点和阅读你不同意的观点时，你会给出什么建议？

Even though I think the passion is important for the teaching of the ideas, like this passion is more important for the reading and understanding of them.

尽管我认为热情对于思想的教学很重要，但这种热情对于阅读和理解它们更重要。

3:30:48 So a lot of people have said to me, “I could never write about Ayn Rand.

所以很多人对我说：“我永远无法写关于安·兰德的事。

She makes me so angry.” I don’t get angry reading her.

她让我很生气。”读她的文章我不会生气。

I am like, “Oh, there you go again,” or, “Well, that’s going to cause trouble.”

我会说，“哦，你又来了，”或者，“好吧，那会引起麻烦的。”

3:31:12 And so I guess I’m approaching it with this sort of charity, but also with, I don’t have huge expectations.

所以我想我是通过这种慈善来实现这一目标的，但我也没有抱太大的期望。

I’m not expecting to have the light shine on me.

我并不期待光芒照耀在我身上。

I’m not expecting to agree.

我并不指望会同意。

I’m like, “I can be very clinical about it.” So that’s worked for me.

我想，“我对此可以非常冷静。”所以这对我有用。

It might not work for others.

它可能对其他人不起作用。

3:31:31 And then, I just try to find the humor in it.

然后，我只是试图找到其中的幽默感。

How funny is it, these different aspects of them?

他们的这些不同方面有多有趣？

When teaching my students about Oliver Wendell Holmes, his dad wrote a poem about him.

在向我的学生介绍奥利弗·温德尔·霍姆斯时，他的父亲写了一首关于他的诗。

He called him the astronaut about how he came from outer space.

他称他为宇航员，讲述他如何来自外太空。

He seemed like he came from outer space.

他看起来就像是从外太空来的。

I’m like, “This is his dad’s view of his son.” That’s how weird of a guy he was.

我想，“这是他父亲对儿子的看法。”他是一个多么奇怪的人。

3:31:55 And so I try to find that, keep alert for those funny kind of human touches that these are ultimately just people, people with ideas that they spent enough time polishing up and developing that we still want to read about them 100 years later.

所以我试图发现这一点，对那些有趣的人性化的接触保持警惕，这些人最终只是人，他们有自己的想法，他们花了足够的时间打磨和发展，而我们在 100 年后仍然想读到他们的想法。

What about the dramatic formulation of that same question?

对于同一个问题的戏剧性表述又如何呢？

3:32:07 Do you think there’s some ideas that are good and some of that are evil?

你认为有些想法是好的，有些是坏的吗？

Do you think we can draw such lines or is it more complicated like the old soul genius in line between good and evil that runs to the heart of every person?

你认为我们可以画出这样的界线吗？还是像古老的灵魂天才在善与恶之间的界线一样，深入到每个人心中？

I philosophically agree with Solzhenitsyn, for sure.

我在哲学上当然同意索尔仁尼琴的观点。

3:32:24 I do think some ideas pull on the good side and some ideas pull on the bad side, absolutely.

我确实认为有些想法有好的一面，有些想法有坏的一面，这是绝对的。

And I think that’s probably why people dislike Rand so much, is they feel like she’s giving license to the bad side, and she’s saying, “It’s okay to be selfish, and it’s okay…” They feel like she’s the dark forces.

我认为这可能就是人们如此不喜欢兰德的原因，他们觉得她在给坏的一面放行，而她说，“自私没关系，没关系……”他们觉得她是黑暗势力。

3:32:47 And in some cases, that may be true, but she’s also unloosing some of the light forces in terms of reflecting on yourself and trying to be true.

在某些情况下，这可能是真的，但她也在反思自己和努力成为真实的方面释放了一些光明力量。

But definitely, there are ideas that are dangerous to play with.

但毫无疑问，有些想法是危险的。

And there are ideas that I think give license to the darker sides of human nature.

我认为有些想法给了人性阴暗面以许可。

But I think you can see that in the historical record.

但我认为你可以在历史记录中看到这一点。

So I think that it’s possible to show that.

所以我认为有可能证明这一点。

And obviously, there’s some places like Germany.

显然，有一些地方像德国。

They think the ideas are so dangerous, they can’t be allowed to circulate.

他们认为这些想法非常危险，不能允许它们传播。

And in some contexts, that may absolutely be true.

在某些情况下，这可能绝对是正确的。

And then still even that, we should take with a grain of salt because perhaps censorship of an idea is more dangerous than an idea.

即使如此，我们也应该持保留态度，因为也许对一个想法的审查比一个想法更危险。

3:33:25 So all of that, that’s the beautiful thing about us humans.

所有这一切，这就是我们人类的美好之处。

We are always at tension trying to figure out what ideas are the ones that are going to help humanity flourish.

我们总是紧张地试图找出哪些想法将有助于人类繁荣。

Pothead question, do humans have ideas or do ideas have us?

傻瓜问题，是人类有想法，还是想法有我们？

3:33:50 So where do ideas come from?

那么想法从哪里来呢？

You have Milton Friedman sitting there after Rutger’s trying to figure out what he can do about the Great Depression.

米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman) 坐在那里，罗格 (Rutger) 试图弄清楚他能为大萧条做些什么。

Do you ever think about this?

你有没有想过这个问题？

I sometimes think aliens are actually ideas.

我有时认为外星人实际上是想法。

They’re just kind of travel through human brains and captivate us.

它们只是穿越人类大脑并让我们着迷。

And we get all real excited with the monolith in 2001 Space Odyssey, a monolith lands, and everybody gets excited.

我们对《2001太空漫游》中的巨石感到非常兴奋，巨石落地，每个人都兴奋不已。

And somehow this idea just gets everybody to be on the same page, and it reverberates through the community, and then that results in an implementation of some action that results in us figuring out that that idea was actually bad, and we learn new ideas.

不知何故，这个想法让每个人都站在同一立场上，并在社区中引起反响，然后导致实施一些行动，导致我们发现这个想法实际上很糟糕，并且我们学习新的想法。

But it feels like the idea is right in the show.

但感觉剧里的想法是对的。

Yeah.

是的。

3:34:44 I think in a lot of cases, I think it’s true.

我认为在很多情况下，我认为这是真的。

Keynes has this famous quote like, “Most men are slaves of some defunct economist.”

凯恩斯有句名言：“大多数人都是某个已故经济学家的奴隶。”

That’s funny.

那很好笑。

3:34:53 That’s funny.

那很好笑。

So I do think it’s really hard to have an original thought.

所以我确实认为有一个原创的想法真的很难。

3:34:56 We are social creatures.

我们是社会生物。

We encounter the same situations again and again.

我们一次又一次地遇到同样的情况。

And so it’s really hard.

所以这真的很难。

You’re born into these traditions of thinking and being and knowing.

你生来就有这些思考、存在和认知的传统。

And most people are never going to question them, and most people are never going to become aware of them.

大多数人永远不会质疑它们，大多数人也永远不会意识到它们。

3:35:15 So again, that’s some of the work of what I do as an intellectual historian.

再说一次，这就是我作为思想史学家所做的一些工作。

It’s like, “Let’s become aware.

就像是，“让我们意识到。

Let’s realize that you’re carrying a map that’s orienting you to the world in a certain way.” And so I think you have to work really, really hard to have an original idea.

让我们意识到，你携带着一张地图，它以某种方式引导你走向世界。”所以我认为你必须非常非常努力地工作才能有一个原创的想法。

And even then, it’s not a completely original idea.

即便如此，这也不是一个完全原创的想法。

It’s a reworking and a reassembling of ideas others have had.

这是对其他人的想法的重新加工和重组。

3:35:38 So I definitely think it’s possible to create autonomy in the realm of ideas and to be an autonomous consumer of ideas.

因此，我绝对认为在思想领域创造自主权并成为思想的自主消费者是可能的。

But I think, on balance, most people are not.

但我认为，总的来说，大多数人都不是。

And that’s fine.

那很好。

They want to have experiences.

他们想要有经验。

They want to do other things with their life.

他们想用自己的一生去做其他事情。

Well, Jennifer, thank you so much for this journey through ideas today, and thank you so much for your incredible work.

好吧，詹妮弗，非常感谢您今天的想法之旅，也非常感谢您所做的出色工作。

3:35:55 It was really fun and fascinating to talk with you today.

今天和你谈话真的很有趣也很有趣。

Thank you,

谢谢你，

Thank you.

谢谢你。

Thank you for listening to this conversation with Jennifer Burns.

感谢您收听与詹妮弗·伯恩斯的对话。

3:36:07 And now, let me try to reflect on and articulate some things I’ve been thinking about.

现在，让我尝试反思并阐明我一直在思考的一些事情。

If you’d like to submit questions or topics that I can comment on in this way here at the end of episodes, go to lexfridman.com/ama, or contact me for whatever other reason at lexfridman.

如果您想提交问题或主题，我可以在剧集结束时以这种方式评论，请访问 lexfridman.com/ama，或者出于任何其他原因在 lexfridman 与我联系。

com/contact.

com/联系方式。

3:36:33 Please allow me to say a few words about my interview with the president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, now that a few days have passed and I’ve had the chance to think about the conversation itself, the response, future upcoming conversations, and what it all means for the war in Ukraine, for global geopolitics, and for us humans in general.

请允许我就我与乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔·泽伦斯基的采访说几句话，几天过去了，我有机会思考对话本身、回应、未来即将进行的对话，以及这一切对乌克兰战争、全球地缘政治和我们人类意味着什么。

3:36:55 I’ve gotten a lot of heartfelt positive words from all sides, including, at least so far, literally everybody who knows me personally inside Ukraine, which includes a lot of soldiers and many high profile figures, some who are supportive of the president, and some who are critical of him.

我从各方那里得到了很多由衷的积极评价，至少到目前为止，包括乌克兰境内所有认识我的人，其中包括许多士兵和许多知名人士，其中一些人支持总统，一些人批评他。

3:37:14 Literally, all private communication has been positive and supportive.

从字面上看，所有私人沟通都是积极和支持的。

This is usually not the case with me.

我的情况通常不是这样。

Friends usually will write to me to criticize and to disagree.

朋友们通常会写信给我批评和提出不同意见。

That’s the whole point of friendship, to argue and have fun doing it.

这就是友谊的全部意义，争论并从中获得乐趣。

There was none of that here, at least so far.

这里什么都没有，至少到目前为止是这样。

So thank you for your support and kind words.

感谢您的支持和客气话。

It means the world.

它意味着世界。

3:37:39 The most common message was, please keep pushing for peace.

最常见的信息是，请继续推动和平。

I will.

我会。

But online on the interwebs, I saw a lot of attacks sometimes from swarms of online accounts which, of course, makes me suspicious about the origin of those attacks.

但在互联网上，我看到很多攻击，有时来自大量在线帐户，这当然让我对这些攻击的起源产生怀疑。

3:37:57 One of my friends in Ukraine, who by the way thinks the attacks are all propped out by Ukrainian bot farms, said, “There’s no need to say anything extra.

我在乌克兰的一位朋友顺便说一句，他认为这些攻击都是由乌克兰机器人农场支持的，他说：“无需多说。

Let the interview stand on its own.

让采访独立起来。

Just keep focused on the mission of pushing for peace.” Basically, he’s a Ukrainian version of my other friend, Joe Rogan, who to this day says, “Don’t read the comments.”

只要继续专注于推动和平的使命即可。”基本上，他是我的另一位朋友乔·罗根 (Joe Rogan) 的乌克兰版，他至今还说：“不要读评论。”

3:38:20 This is generally good advice and I try to follow it.

这通常是很好的建议，我尝试遵循它。

But I’m also human being.

但我也是人。

I wear my heart on my sleeve.

我把我的心挂在袖子上。

And this interview, this war for me is deeply personal.

这次采访，这场战争对我来说是非常个人化的。

And the level of vitriol, misrepresentation, and lies about the conversation and about me personally was particularly intense and disingenuous.

关于这次谈话和我个人的尖酸刻薄、歪曲事实和谎言的程度尤其强烈和不诚实。

So I thought I would use this opportunity to say a few words, just speak a bit more about how I approach this conversation with President Zelensky and conversations in general.

所以我想我应该利用这个机会说几句话，多谈谈我如何处理与泽连斯基总统的谈话以及一般谈话。

3:38:53 This interview is something I poured my heart and soul into preparing a lot.

这次采访是我倾注了大量心血准备的。

I’ve described parts of the preparation process I follow in the outro to the Zelensky conversation.

我在泽连斯基谈话的结尾部分描述了我所遵循的部分准备过程。

But in general, let me say that I’ve read a lot, listened to a lot, and had a lot of private conversations with people on the ground.

但总的来说，我读了很多书，听了很多话，并与当地的人们进行了很多私人对话。

I have many flaws.

我有很多缺点。

But being unprepared for this conversation is not one of them.

但对这次对话毫无准备并不是其中之一。

3:39:19 Two low effort attacks got to me a bit, if I’m being honest though I am learning to take it all in stride.

两次低强度的攻击对我来说有点影响，说实话，尽管我正在学着从容应对这一切。

First attack is that I’m unprepared, uninformed or naive.

第一个攻击是我没有准备、不知情或天真。

I don’t give a damn about the trolls, but I want people who listen to me, who support me, who care about my words, to know that this is not the case.

我一点也不在乎那些喷子，但我希望那些听我说话、支持我、关心我的话的人知道事实并非如此。

It never will be the case for future conversations, especially ones of this importance.

未来的对话，尤其是如此重要的对话，情况永远不会如此。

I work extremely hard to prepare.

我非常努力地准备。

3:39:52 Second low effort attack that got to me a bit is that I’m a shill for Zelensky or a shill for Putin.

第二个让我有点不舒服的低效攻击是，我是泽伦斯基的托儿或普京的托儿。

Both accusations were hurled readily and freely by the online mob of all persuasions by the left and the right in the United States and Europe by the pro and the anti-Zelensky people in Ukraine or of Ukrainian origins and by the pro and anti-Putin people in Russia or of Russian origins.

美国和欧洲的左派和右派、乌克兰或乌克兰裔的支持和反对泽连斯基人士、俄罗斯或俄罗斯裔的支持和反普京人士的网络暴徒们都轻易而自由地提出了这两项指控。

3:40:20 As I’ve said over and over, this is not the case.

正如我一再说过的，事实并非如此。

I will never be the case.

我永远不会是这样。

I’m a shill for no one.

我不是任何人的托儿。

More than that, I just simply refuse to be caught in any one single echo chamber.

不仅如此，我只是拒绝陷入任何一个回音室。

It’s an ongoing battle of course, because social media algorithms and the various dogmatic groups and tribes out there want to pull you in to their warm embrace of belonging.

当然，这是一场持续的战斗，因为社交媒体算法和各种教条团体和部落想要将你拉入他们温暖的归属感怀抱。

And humans want to belong.

人类想要归属感。

3:40:48 But the cost of the path I have chosen is that I will never belong to any one group.

但我选择这条道路的代价是我永远不会属于任何一个群体。

In the end, like many of us must, I walk alone.

最后，就像我们许多人必须的那样，我独自行走。

And I try to do my best to do what is right to my independent heart and mind, not what is popular with any one group.

我尽力做适合我独立心灵和思想的事情，而不是受任何一个群体欢迎的事情。

3:41:08 My goals for this conversation were twofold.

我这次谈话的目标是双重的。

First, give a large platform to President Zelensky to explain his perspective on the war and to do so in a way that brings out the best in who he is as a leader and human being.

首先，为泽伦斯基总统提供一个广阔的平台来解释他对战争的看法，并以一种能够充分展现他作为领导人和人类的方式来解释他的观点。

Second goal was to push for peace, and to give him every opportunity possible to signal that he’s ready to make peace, and to provide his vision for what that might look like.

第二个目标是推动和平，并给他一切可能的机会来表明他已准备好实现和平，并提供他对和平的愿景。

3:41:35 And just to be clear, by peace, I mean long-lasting peace that minimizes suffering of people in the region and maximizes the flourishing of humanity in the coming decades.

需要明确的是，我所说的和平是指持久的和平，最大限度地减少该地区人民的痛苦，并在未来几十年最大限度地促进人类的繁荣。

The war in Ukraine has led to over one million casualties and growing every single day.

乌克兰战争已造成超过100万人伤亡，而且伤亡人数每天都在增加。

For some people torn apart by loss, tormented, and forced into a state of anger and hate, peace is a dirty word.

对于一些因失落而心碎、饱受折磨、被迫陷入愤怒和仇恨状态的人来说，和平是一个肮脏的词。

To them, nothing less than justice must be accepted.

对他们来说，只有正义才是必须接受的。

3:42:10 I hear this pain.

我听到这种痛苦。

I’ve seen the bodies and the suffering.

我看到了尸体和痛苦。

It’s true.

这是真的。

Peace will not bring back your loved ones.

和平不会带回你所爱的人。

But it’ll prevent further slaughter of more people, each of whom are someone else’s loved ones.

但这将防止更多的人被进一步屠杀，因为每个人都是别人的亲人。

So again, the second goal of this conversation was to push for this kind of peace.

再说一次，这次谈话的第二个目标是推动这种和平。

3:42:35 So how did I approach it?

那么我是如何处理它的呢？

Every conversation is its own puzzle.

每一次谈话都是它自己的谜题。

So let me try to explain my approach for this one.

那么让我尝试解释一下我的方法。

As I’ve said, I read and listened to a lot of material since February 24th, 2022.

正如我所说，自 2022 年 2 月 24 日以来，我阅读并听了很多材料。

There would be many weeks over the past three years where I would spend every day over eight hours a day of focused reading and research.

在过去的三年里，有好几个星期我每天都会花八个小时以上的时间专注阅读和研究。

3:42:58 There were several rabbit holes that I consistently returned to and researched.

我不断地返回并研究几个兔子洞。

But the most important line of inquiry was always peace talks, not just in this war, but in other wars in modern history.

但最重要的调查线索始终是和平谈判，不仅在这场战争中，而且在现代历史上的其他战争中也是如此。

For this specific war, as part of the background prep, I would take notes on every single perspective I could find on every single major diplomatic meeting and negotiation that happened in Ukraine-Russia relations since 1991.

对于这场具体的战争，作为背景准备的一部分，我会记录自 1991 年以来乌克兰与俄罗斯关系中发生的每一次重大外交会议和谈判中我能找到的每一个观点。

3:43:27 There is a lot of material to go through.

有很多材料需要经过。

And there are a lot of perspectives, even on the very 2019 meeting that President Zelensky spoke about in this podcast.

即使是泽伦斯基总统在本播客中谈到的 2019 年会议，也有很多观点。

Just as a small but important example, Andrii Bogdan was interviewed twice by Dmytro Gordon and gave a deep inside look of the administration of President Zelensky, including that very 2019 meeting.

作为一个小但重要的例子，安德里·博格丹两次接受德米特罗·戈登的采访，深入了解了泽连斯基总统的政府，包括 2019 年的那次会议。

3:43:52 The two interviews are seven and a half hours by the way.

顺便说一下，两次面试都是七个半小时。

And from my interviewer perspective, are a masterclass of interviewing.

从我面试官的角度来看，这是一堂面试大师班。

Andrii Bogdan worked directly with President Zelensky as the head of the Office of the President of Ukraine.

安德里·博格丹作为乌克兰总统办公室主任，直接与泽连斯基总统合作。

He was there for the 2019 face-to-face meeting between Volodymyr Zelensky and Vladimir Putin at the Paris Summit, along with French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel.

他与法国总统埃马纽埃尔·马克龙和德国总理安格拉·默克尔一起出席了 2019 年弗拉基米尔·普京在巴黎峰会上的面对面会晤。

This was part of the Normandy Format Peace Talks.

这是诺曼底和平谈判的一部分。

3:44:26 In those two interviews, Andrii Bogdan gave a very different perspective on that 2019 meeting than did President Zelensky to me in our conversation, the perspective being that the failure to negotiate a ceasefire and peace was not a simple one-sided story.

在这两次采访中，安德里·博格丹对 2019 年那次会议的看法与泽伦斯基总统在我们谈话中对我的看法截然不同，他的观点是，停火与和平谈判的失败并不是一个简单的片面故事。

3:44:46 I don’t think this is the right time for me to dive into that data point and be critical.