伊朗战争辩论：核武器、特朗普、和平、权力与中东

We want to avoid wars, we have to have serious deterrence because our enemies need to understand, we will use selective, focused, overwhelming military power when we are facing threats like an Iranian nuclear weapon.

我们想要避免战争，我们必须拥有严重的威慑力，因为我们的敌人需要明白，当我们面临伊朗核武器等威胁时，我们将使用有选择性的、集中的、压倒性的军事力量。

I’m not seeing the peace through strength.

我没有通过力量看到和平。

00:12 I’m seeing permanent militarism and permanent war through strength.

我看到通过实力实现永久的军国主义和永久的战争。

Do you ever hold our adversaries responsible or do you just don’t think we have any adversaries?

你是否曾认为我们的对手负有责任，或者你只是认为我们没有对手？

The easiest kind of nuke to make out of uranium is a simple gun type nuke.

用铀制造的最简单的核武器是简单的枪型核武器。

Are you saying that Mossad fabricated it?

你是说摩萨德捏造的吗？

Yeah.

是的。

That’s what you’re claiming.

这就是你所主张的。

00:30 Here’s the offer, take it to leave it.

这是优惠，拿走吧。

Zero enrichment full dismantlement.

零浓缩全面拆解。

Through the Iranians, told the IAEA, you can inspect any five out 10 facilities here, carte blanche, go ahead and they did and found nothing.

伊朗人告诉国际原子能机构，你可以检查这里十个设施中的任何五个，全权委托，他们照做了，但什么也没发现。

Experts in Iran’s nuclear program, including David Albright, who actually saw the archive, went in there, wrote a whole book on it, and there’s a lot of detail about how Iran had an active nuclear weapons program called AMAD to build five nuclear weapons.

伊朗核计划专家，包括大卫·奥尔布赖特（David Albright），他实际上看到了档案，并在那里写了一整本书，其中有很多关于伊朗如何实施名为 AMAD 的核武器计划来制造五枚核武器的细节。

I have to refute virtually everything he just said, which is completely false.

我必须反驳他刚才所说的几乎所有内容，这完全是错误的。

I mean really everything?

我的意思是真的一切？

00:58 There was not one thing I said that was true?

我说的没有一件事是真的吗？

Just one thing.

只是一件事。

I mean Iran is a nation over there somewhere.

我的意思是伊朗是那里某个地方的一个国家。

01:02 You got that part right.

你说对了。

22 years of working on Iran and I got that right.

我在伊朗问题上工作了 22 年，我做对了。

But do you know the population of Iran?

但你知道伊朗有多少人口吗？

92 million.

9200万。

Okay.

好的。

Give me a pound, dude.

给我一磅，伙计。

There we go, agreement.

就这样吧，协议。

01:16 The following is a debate between Scott Horton and Mark Dubowitz on the topic of Iran and Israel.

以下是斯科特·霍顿和马克·杜博维茨关于伊朗和以色列话题的辩论。

Scott Horton is author and editorial director of Ntwar.com, host of the Scott Horton Show and for the past three decades, a staunch critic of US foreign policy and military interventionism.

斯科特·霍顿 (Scott Horton) 是 Ntwar.com 的作家和编辑总监，也是《斯科特·霍顿秀》的主持人，在过去三十年里，他一直是美国外交政策和军事干预主义的坚定批评者。

Mark Dubowitz is a chief executive of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, host of the Iran Breakdown Podcast, and he has been a leading expert on Iran and its nuclear program for over 20 years.

马克·杜博维茨 (Mark Dubowitz) 是保卫民主基金会的首席执行官、伊朗崩溃播客的主持人，20 多年来他一直是伊朗及其核计划方面的顶尖专家。

This is the Lex Fridman podcast.

这是莱克斯·弗里德曼播客。

To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description and consider subscribing to this channel.

为了支持它，请查看说明中的赞助商并考虑订阅此频道。

If you do, I promise to work extremely hard to always bring you nuanced, long-form conversations with a very wide range of interesting people from all walks of life, and now, dear friends, here’s Scott Horton and Mark Dubowitz.

如果你愿意，我保证会非常努力地为你带来与各行各业的各种有趣的人进行细致入微的长篇对话，现在，亲爱的朋友们，这是斯科特·霍顿和马克·杜博维茨。

02:18 Gentlemen.

先生们。

All right, it’s great to have you here.

好吧，很高兴你能来到这里。

Let’s try to have a nuanced discussion/debate and maybe even steal man-opposing perspectives as much as possible.

让我们尝试进行细致入微的讨论/辩论，甚至尽可能地窃取反对人类的观点。

All right, as a stands now, there’s a barely stable ceasefire between Iran and Israel.

好吧，就目前情况而言，伊朗和以色列之间的停火勉强稳定。

Let’s maybe rewind a little bit.

让我们回顾一下。

Can we first lay out the context for this Iran-Israel war and try to describe the key events that happened over the past two weeks, maybe even a bit of the deep roots of the conflict?

我们能否先阐述一下这场两以战争的背景，并尝试描述过去两周发生的关键事件，甚至可能是冲突的一些深层根源？

Sure.

当然。

02:50 First of all, thanks so much for having me on.

首先，非常感谢您邀请我参加。

Great to be on with Scott.

很高兴和斯科特在一起。

I know he and I don’t agree on a lot, but I certainly admire the passion and the dedication to stopping wars.

我知道我和他在很多方面意见不一致，但我当然钦佩他对制止战争的热情和奉献精神。

So that’s something we want to talk about.

这就是我们想要讨论的事情。

So let’s talk about how we got to this war.

那么让我们来谈谈我们是如何进入这场战争的。

So President Trump comes into office and immediately lays out that his Iran strategy is maximum pressure on the regime and he will not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon, and he makes that clear.

所以特朗普总统上任后立即提出，他的伊朗战略是对伊朗政权施加最大压力，他不会允许伊朗拥有核武器，他也明确表示过这一点。

Consistently, I think made it very clear during his first term, made a clear throughout his career and thus begins this process with the Iranians, which has kind of multiple tracks, but the one that Trump sees most interested in at the time is the diplomatic track, and he makes it very clear from the beginning and a sort of Oval Office remark.

一直以来，我认为他在第一个任期内就明确表达了这一点，在他的整个职业生涯中也明确表达了这一点，从而从伊朗人开始了这一进程，这个过程有多种轨道，但特朗普认为当时最感兴趣的是外交轨道，他从一开始就说得很清楚，有点像椭圆形办公室的言论。

Sure.

当然。

06:21 Well, he started with January, right?

嗯，他从一月开始，对吧？

Trump’s second term here and the maximum pressure campaign essentially as should be clear to everyone.

特朗普的第二个任期和极限施压竞选基本上是每个人都应该清楚的。

Now, all these negotiations were just a pretext for war.

现在，所有这些谈判都只是战争的借口。

Trump and his entire cabinet must have known that the Ayatollah is not going to give up all enrichment.

特朗普和他的整个内阁一定知道阿亚图拉不会放弃所有的财富。

That is their latent nuclear deterrent.

这就是他们潜在的核威慑力。

Their posture has been heavily implied, “Don’t attack us and we won’t make a nuke.” While America’s position was if you make a nuke, if you start to we’ll attack you.

他们的姿态已被强烈暗示：“不要攻击我们，我们就不会制造核武器。”美国的立场是，如果你制造核武器，如果你开始制造核武器，我们就会攻击你。

So it was the perfect standoff, but what happened was, and you might remember a few weeks ago, there was some talk about, “Well, maybe we could find a way to compromise on some enrichment.

所以这是一次完美的对峙，但发生的事情是，你可能还记得几周前，有人在谈论，“好吧，也许我们可以找到一种在某些浓缩方面妥协的方法。

Maybe they could do a consortium with the Saudis.” And then nope, the pressure came down.

也许他们可以与沙特组成一个财团。”然后不，压力下降了。

No enrichment, zero enrichment, but that’s a red line.

没有浓缩，零浓缩，但这是一条红线。

Maybe a good question to ask here is what is the goal for the United States in Iran in relation to Iran’s nuclear program?

也许这里要问的一个好问题是，美国在伊朗核计划方面的目标是什么？

11:00 What is the red line here?

这里的红线是什么？

Does Iran have this need for latent nuclear deterrent and what is the thing that’s acceptable to the United States and to the rest of the world?

伊朗是否有这种潜在核威慑的需要？什么是美国和世界其他国家可以接受的？

What should be acceptable?

什么应该是可以接受的？

Yeah, so there was a lot to unpack there.

是的，所以那里有很多东西需要解开。

11:24 So let’s sort of just back up a little bit.

所以让我们稍微备份一下。

Let’s talk about first of all, the regime itself.

我们首先谈谈政权本身。

Islamic Republic of Iran came into power in 1979.

伊朗伊斯兰共和国于1979年执政。

It has been declared a leading state sponsor of terrorism by multiple administrations dating back to the Clinton administration, by Obama, by Biden, by Trump and it is a regime that has killed and maimed thousands of Americans, not to mention obviously hundreds of thousands of Middle Easterners.

自克林顿政府以来的多届政府、奥巴马政府、拜登政府、特朗普政府都宣称它是恐怖主义的主要支持者，这个政权已经杀害和残害了数千名美国人，更不用说数十万中东人了。

It is a regime that has lied about its nuclear program and never actually disclosed its nuclear sites.

这个政权对其核计划撒了谎，而且从未真正披露过其核设施。

All these sites were discovered by Iranian opposition groups, by western intelligence agencies, and the International Atomic Energy Agency, which is the UN agency responsible for preventing proliferation has come out again and again over many years in very detailed reports describing Iran’s nuclear weapons program.

所有这些地点都是由伊朗反对派团体、西方情报机构和国际原子能机构发现的。国际原子能机构是负责防止扩散的联合国机构，多年来一再发布非常详细的报告，描述伊朗的核武器计划。

Yeah, that is one of the fascinating questions, whether this Operation Midnight Hammer increase or decreased the chance that the Iran will develop a nuclear weapon.

是的，这是令人着迷的问题之一，这次午夜之锤行动是否会增加或减少伊朗发展核武器的机会。

Before you ask any more questions, I have to refute virtually everything he just said, which is completely false.

在你问更多问题之前，我必须反驳他刚才所说的几乎所有内容，这完全是错误的。

I mean really everything, there was not one thing I said that was true.

我的意思是真的一切，我说的没有一件事是真的。

18:49 Just one thing.

只是一件事。

I mean Iran is a nation over there somewhere.

我的意思是伊朗是那里某个地方的一个国家。

18:52 You got that part right.

你说对了。

All right, 22 years of working on Iran and I got that right.

好吧，在伊朗问题上工作了 22 年，我是对的。

But do you know the population of Iran?

但你知道伊朗有多少人口吗？

92 million.

9200万。

Okay.

好的。

So first of all, they were trying to buy a light water reactor from the Europeans or the Chinese in the 1990s, and Bill Clinton wouldn’t let them and put tremendous pressure on China to prevent them from selling them a light water reactor, a turnkey reactor that produces waste that’s so polluted with impurities that you can’t make nuclear weapons fuel out of it.

首先，他们在20世纪90年代试图从欧洲或中国购买轻水反应堆，但比尔·克林顿不让他们这么做，并对中国施加了巨大压力，阻止他们向他们出售轻水反应堆，这是一种交钥匙反应堆，产生的废物污染严重，无法制造核武器燃料。

19:02 By the way, they never have to this day had a reprocessing facility for reprocessing plutonium.

顺便说一句，他们迄今为止从未拥有过用于后处理钚的后处理设施。

Even their current plutonium waste from their heavy water reactor at Boucher to make weapons fuel out of that.

甚至他们目前从布歇重水反应堆中排出的钚废物也用来制造武器燃料。

They have no plutonium route to the bomb under the JCPOA.

根据联合全面行动计划，他们没有获得核弹的钚路线。

At Iraq, not Boucher.

在伊拉克，不是布歇。

19:37 There’s a difference.

这是有区别的。

Iraq is where they pour concrete into the reactor and shut it down.

伊拉克是他们向反应堆浇注混凝土并关闭反应堆的地方。

And the reason they pour concrete-

他们浇筑混凝土的原因是——

Under the JCPOA.

根据联合全面行动计划。

Not they, but the Obama administration, he’s right, under the JCPOA poured concrete into the Kalindria in order to prevent them from using that reactor to reprocess plutonium.

不是他们，而是奥巴马政府，他是对的，根据《联合全面行动计划》向卡林德里亚浇筑了混凝土，以阻止他们使用该反应堆来后处理钚。

19:48 So there’s a distinction between Iraq and Boucher.

所以伊拉克和布歇之间是有区别的。

Scott’s exactly right.

斯科特说得完全正确。

Boucher is a heavy water reactor provided by the Russians as I described for the generation of electricity.

正如我所描述的，布歇是俄罗斯人提供的用于发电的重水反应堆。

Its proliferation proof.

它的扩散证明。

Iraq is the opposite.

伊拉克则相反。

It’s a heavy water reactor that was built for a plutonium pathway to nuclear weapons, which is exactly why under the JCPOA, they literally had to pour concrete into the middle of it to prevent it from reprocessing plutonium.

这是一个重水反应堆，是为制造核武器的钚途径而建造的，这正是为什么根据《联合全面行动计划》，他们必须在其中浇注混凝土，以防止其对钚进行再处理。

I think we’re going to need a scientist to come in here and split the difference or maybe we need to go and look up some IAEA documents because I don’t believe that Iraq ever had a reprocessing facility for their plutonium waste and the deal under the JCPOA, the Russians would come and get all their plutonium waste, which the waste comes out all polluted and not useful.

我认为我们需要一位科学家来到这里来解决分歧，或者也许我们需要去查找一些国际原子能机构的文件，因为我不相信伊拉克曾经有过钚废物的后处理设施，而根据联合全面行动计划，俄罗斯人会来获取他们所有的钚废物，这些废物都被污染了，没有用处。

20:25 You need the reprocessing facility to get all of the impurities out.

您需要再处理设施来清除所有杂质。

Just to clarify-

只是为了澄清 -

It could be that I’m wrong about that, but I don’t believe that they ever had a reprocessing facility at Iraq that they could use to remove all those impurities and then have weapons-grade plutonium fuel as the North Koreans do.

也许我的想法是错的，但我不相信他们在伊拉克有过后处理设施，可以用来去除所有这些杂质，然后像朝鲜那样拥有武器级钚燃料。

So the Obama administration was very clear under the JCPOA, we are going to pour concrete into the Iraq facility as Scott acknowledged because we are concerned that Iraq can be used for reprocessing plutonium, for plutonium pathway to a nuclear weapon.

因此，奥巴马政府根据联合全面行动计划非常明确，正如斯科特所承认的那样，我们将向伊拉克设施浇筑混凝土，因为我们担心伊拉克可用于后处理钚，用于制造核武器的钚途径。

Can be used, but we don’t know if it was used.

可以用，但不知道有没有用过。

Oh, we know it never was.

哦，我们知道从来没有。

21:24 There never was any reprocessing of weapons fuel there.

那里从未进行过任何武器燃料的后处理。

But there was concrete poured.

但浇筑了混凝土。

There’s no indication

没有任何迹象表明

For your viewers who are interested and not to plug my own podcast, Lex so I apologize.

对于那些有兴趣而不是插入我自己的播客的观众，莱克斯，所以我深表歉意。

It is a very good podcast.

这是一个非常好的播客。

I just recently had David Albright on my podcast who is actually a physicist and a weapons inspector and goes into a lot of detail about the Iranian nuclear program.

最近，大卫·奥尔布赖特（David Albright）出现在我的播客上，他实际上是一名物理学家和武器检查员，他详细介绍了伊朗核计划。

21:36 Please listen to the podcast.

请收听播客。

Iran Breakdown by the way is the name of the podcast.

顺便说一句，伊朗崩溃是播客的名称。

And David’s the president of the Institute for Science International Security and by the way, spent decades on this and to his credit, he was one of the deep skeptics of the Bush administration’s rush to war with Iraq.

大卫是国际安全科学研究所所长，顺便说一句，他在这方面花了几十年的时间，值得赞扬的是，他是布什政府匆忙对伊拉克开战的深深怀疑者之一。

That’s not true.

那不是真的。

22:00 He vouched for claims that there were chemical weapons in Iraq and later said he was sorry for it.

他为伊拉克存在化学武器的说法提供了担保，后来表示对此感到抱歉。

Again, I mentioned the Bush administration’s rush to war based on their claims that Saddam was building nuclear weapons.

我再次提到布什政府声称萨达姆正在制造核武器而仓促发动战争。

He did debunk the aluminum tubes though.

不过，他确实揭穿了铝管的真相。

He debunked it and it was a deep skeptic again of the rush to war in Iraq.

他揭穿了这一说法，这再次引发了人们对匆忙发动伊拉克战争的深深怀疑。

22:14 The argument today, Lex, which I think is the more interesting argument, because there are very few people left today who don’t believe that the Iranians were building the nuclear weapons capability that gave them the option to build nuclear weapons.

今天的争论，莱克斯，我认为这是更有趣的争论，因为今天很少有人不相信伊朗人正在建设核武器能力，这使他们可以选择建造核武器。

I already said that.

我已经说过了。

We can debate whether they had decided to, and I’m interested to hear Scott’s opinion on this, but the recent intelligence that has come out that the Iranian nuclear weapons scientists have begun preliminary work on building a warhead.

我们可以讨论他们是否决定这么做，我很想听听斯科特对此的看法，但最近的情报显示，伊朗核武器科学家已经开始制造弹头的初步工作。

Came out from where?

从哪里出来的？

22:49 This intelligence that came out, who put that?

这个情报出来了，是谁放的？

Israeli claims.

以色列声称。

Not verified by the US and the Wall Street Journal anywhere, right?

没有得到美国和《华尔街日报》任何地方的验证，对吗？

Let’s talk about all of my list of refutations of all your false claims from 10 years ago.

让我们来谈谈我对10年前你们所有虚假说法的反驳清单。

The Wall Street Journal did verify.

《华尔街日报》确实证实了这一点。

That’s a lot of [inaudible 00:23:08] to refute.

有很多 [听不清 00:23:08] 需要反驳。

One at a time.

一次一个。

Lawrence Norman actually wrote a piece and this was during the Biden administration because the Biden DNI had actually come out and for the first time in their annual threat assessment had removed a line that said Iran is not currently working on developing any capabilities that would put it in a position to actually deliver a nuclear warhead, and what became the Norman piece in the Wall Street Journal was that there actually was initial work done on metallurgy and on computer modeling, and so those actually were defined terms in Section T of the 2015 JCPOA, which defined weaponization in that section, and metallurgy and computer modeling were some of the initial steps so that the DNI was very concerned under Biden that these initial steps meant that either Khamenei had given the green lights or nuclear weapons scientists in order to get ahead of the boss so they could be in a position if he decided to move forward on this, were in a position and their timelines were therefore expedited.

劳伦斯·诺曼实际上写了一篇文章，这是在拜登执政期间，因为拜登国家情报总监实际上已经出来了，并且在他们的年度威胁评估中第一次删除了一条线，即伊朗目前没有致力于开发任何能够使其能够实际运载核弹头的能力，诺曼在《华尔街日报》上发表的文章是，实际上已经在冶金和计算机建模方面完成了初步工作，因此这些实际上是在 2015 年联合全面行动计划 T 节中定义的术语，该节定义了该部分的武器化、冶金和计算机建模是最初的一些步骤，因此国家情报总监在拜登领导下非常担心，这些最初的步骤意味着哈梅内伊或核武器科学家已经开绿灯，以便领先于老板，这样如果他决定在这方面取得进展，他们就可以处于有利地位，因此他们的时间表会加快。

Who’s the dog that didn’t bark there?

那里没有叫的狗是谁？

24:29 The current director of National Intelligence who issued her threat assessment, Trump’s director of National Intelligence, Tulsi Gabbard who issued her threat assessment in February that repeated the exact same language that from the National Intelligence estimate of 2007, and that the CIA and the NIE, the National Intelligence Council have reaffirmed repeatedly ever since then, which is that supreme leader has not decided to pursue nuclear weapons.

现任国家情报总监发布了威胁评估，特朗普的国家情报总监图尔西·加巴德（Tulsi Gabbard）在2月份发布了威胁评估，其中重复了2007年国家情报评估中完全相同的语言，中央情报局和国家情报局，国家情报委员会此后一再重申，最高领导人没有决定追求核武器。

He has not made the political decision to pursue nuclear weapons.

他尚未做出追求核武器的政治决定。

She testified in fact under oath in front of the senate in March and then according to CNN and the New York Times, there was a brand new assessment that was put together the week before the attack was launched reaffirming the same thing and at least in history, if you read it in Haaretz, Massad agreed with the CIA.

事实上，她三月份在参议院宣誓作证，然后据美国有线电视新闻网（CNN）和《纽约时报》报道，在袭击发生前一周，有一个全新的评估，重申了同样的事情，至少在历史上，如果你在《国土报》上读到，马萨德同意中央情报局的观点。

I’d like to just sort of quote CIA director John Radcliffe because Scott brought up the CIA and the intelligence committee.

我想引用中央情报局局长约翰·拉德克利夫的话，因为斯科特提到了中央情报局和情报委员会。

25:19 I think Radcliffe had a good way of looking at this and that he said is when you’re in the 99 yard line as a football team, you have the intention of score a goal, and what he was actually pointing to is let’s not talk about this debate about whether Khamenei had given the order or not given the order, because Khamenei knows that if he gives an order, the US and Israeli intelligence community will pick up on that order and that will be the trigger for strikes.

我认为拉德克利夫对此有一个很好的看法，他说，当你作为一支足球队在 99 码线内时，你有进球的意图，他实际上指出的是，我们不要谈论关于哈梅内伊是否下达命令的争论，因为哈梅内伊知道，如果他下达命令，美国和以色列情报界将接受该命令，这将引发袭击。

What Radcliffe is saying is that Khamenei had built the nuclear weapons capability.

拉德克利夫所说的是哈梅内伊已经建立了核武器能力。

He’s at the 99 yard line, and both the CIA and European leaders, the European Intelligence Committee has said for yours that if Iran has that capability and they’re on the 99 yard line, at that point, it’s going to be too late to stop them.

他在 99 码线上，中央情报局和欧洲领导人，欧洲情报委员会都已经为你们说过，如果伊朗有这种能力，而且他们在 99 码线上，到那时，阻止他们就太晚了。

Once that decision is made to assemble the final warhead, which by the way is the final piece of what you need for a deliverable nuclear weapon.

一旦决定组装最终弹头，顺便说一下，这就是可运载核武器所需的最后一块。

That’s not true at all, right?

这根本不是真的，对吧？

26:18 They have to resort to a crude analogy about football yard lines because they can’t say the truth, which is that they had zero weapons grade uranium, they were not producing it.

他们不得不诉诸于足球场线的粗略类比，因为他们不能说出真相，即他们拥有零武器级铀，他们没有生产它。

They were trying to get the United States back in the deal that they are still officially within the JCPOA with the rest of the UN Security Council wherein they shipped all of their enriched uranium stockpile out of the country to France to be transferred to fuel rods.

他们试图让美国回到与联合国安理会其他成员签署的联合全面行动计划的正式范围内，其中他们将所有浓缩铀库存从该国运到法国，以转移到燃料棒中。

Their insistence was on their continued ability to enrich uranium, and so this goes to one of the things that he at least sort of brought up that deserves addressing.

他们坚持认为他们有继续浓缩铀的能力，因此这涉及到他至少提出的值得解决的问题之一。

When Trump came into power in 2017, he decided on this Israeli influence maximum pressure campaign, and he said the JCPOA was the worst deal in the history of any time any two men ever shook hands and all these kinds of things in his hyperbolic way, which of course made it very difficult for him to figure out a way to stay in the thing or to compromise along its lines.

当特朗普2017年上台时，他决定对以色列施加最大的影响力，他说联合全面行动计划是历史上任何两个人握手以来最糟糕的协议，以及所有这些以他夸张的方式做出的事情，这当然让他很难找到一种方法来留在这件事上或按照它的方式妥协。

31:00 Claims credit he was first and said this is a facility.

他声称自己是第一个，并说这是一个设施。

However, they were not in violation of their safeguards agreement with the IAEA.

然而，它们并没有违反与国际原子能机构签订的保障协定。

They were still six months away from introducing any nuclear material to that facility.

距离向该设施引入任何核材料还有六个月的时间。

When it was revealed, they weren’t in violation of anything.

当事情被揭露时，他们并没有违反任何规定。

And then on com we had a huge fight about this at the time.

然后我们当时在网络上为此发生了一场激烈的争吵。

The party line came down from all the government officials in the media that they had just exposed the facility there.

所有政府官员都在媒体上发布了党的路线，称他们刚刚曝光了那里的设施。

Com is Fordo.

Com 是福尔多。

Same thing.

同样的事情。

When in fact that wasn’t true.

事实上那不是真的。

The Iranians had announced to the IAEA that we had built a new facility here, and we are going to introduce nuclear material into it within six months.

伊朗人已向国际原子能机构宣布，我们在这里建造了一座新设施，我们将在六个月内向其中引入核材料。

Here’s your official notification.

这是您的官方通知。

And then a few days later, they just pretended to expose it, when it was the Iranians themselves who had admitted to it in going along with their obligations under their safeguards agreement.

几天后，他们只是假装揭露了这一点，而伊朗人自己也承认了这一点，并履行了保障协议规定的义务。

Enough Already.

已经够了。

Thank you.

谢谢。

36:40 I have a solid dozen sources including Michael Gordon’s own colleague, Alissa Rubin at the New York Times, and many others where they found these bomb factories in Shiite Iraq.

我有十几个消息来源，包括迈克尔·戈登自己的同事、《纽约时报》的艾丽莎·鲁宾，以及许多其他在什叶派伊拉克发现这些炸弹工厂的人。

They were being made by Shiite Arab Iraqis.

它们是由什叶派阿拉伯伊拉克人制造的。

When David Petraeus was going to have a big press conference, and they laid out all the components, all the reporters gathered around, and they started noticing that the components said “Made in UAE.

当大卫·彼得雷乌斯（David Petraeus）要召开大型新闻发布会时，他们摆出了所有组件，所有记者都聚集在一起，他们开始注意到这些组件上写着“阿联酋制造”。

Made in Haditha.” That is Iraq.

哈迪萨制造。”那就是伊拉克。

In other words, there was no evidence whatsoever that these came from Iran.

换句话说，没有任何证据表明这些来自伊朗。

And then they called off the press conference.

然后他们取消了新闻发布会。

And Stephen Hadley, George Bush’s second national security advisor, admitted that we didn’t have the evidence that we needed to present that.

乔治·布什的第二任国家安全顾问斯蒂芬·哈德利承认，我们没有足够的证据来证明这一点。

And I also quote two, one Marine and one high-level Army intelligence officer in there, who were deeply involved in Iraq war reconfirming that there was never any evidence that these bombs were coming across from Iran or especially that then, even if they were, that that was at the direction of the Quds Force or the Ayatollah.

我还引用了其中两名深入参与伊拉克战争的两名海军陆战队高级情报官员和一名陆军高级情报官员的话，他们再次确认，从来没有任何证据表明这些炸弹来自伊朗，尤其是即使是来自伊朗，也是圣城军或阿亚图拉指挥的。

First, let me say on the cover of Enough Already, “Devastating,” Daniel Ellsberg, “Outstanding,” Daniel L.

首先，让我在《Enough Already》的封面上说一下丹尼尔·艾尔斯伯格的“毁灭性”，以及丹尼尔·L·埃尔斯伯格的“杰出”。

39:21 Davis, “Essential,” Ron Paul.

戴维斯，“必不可少”，罗恩·保罗。

You are respected by a very large number of people.

你受到很多人的尊重。

You have decades of experience.

你有几十年的经验。

And the same thing with Mark.

马克也是如此。

Extremely respected by a very large number of people.

受到很多人的极度尊重。

Experts.

专家们。

There’s a lot of disagreements here, and we’re going to unfortunately leave a lot of the disagreements on the table for the aforementioned nuclear scientist to deconstruct later.

这里存在很多分歧，不幸的是，我们将把许多分歧留在桌面上，供上述核科学家稍后解构。

Let’s not try to …

我们不要尝试……

Every single claim does not have to be perfectly refuted.

不必完全反驳每一个主张。

Let’s just leave it on the table, the statements as they stand, and let’s try to also find things we kind of agree on and try …

让我们把它留在桌面上，保留现有的声明，让我们尝试找到我们同意的事情并尝试……

I know this might be difficult, but to steelman the other side.

我知道这可能很困难，但对另一边的钢铁侠来说。

That’s the thing I would love to ask you.

这就是我想问你的事情。

I think that, in my opening statement, quite frankly, I don’t carry any brief for the Ayatollah.

我认为，坦率地说，在我的开场白中，我没有向阿亚图拉做任何简报。

40:20 I’m a Texan.

我是德克萨斯人。

I don’t give a damn about what some Shiite theocrat says about nothing, right?

我一点也不在乎某些什叶派神权主义者所说的无事生非，对吧？

My interest is the people of this country and its future and what’s true.

我感兴趣的是这个国家的人民及其未来和真相。

And so I don’t mind telling you.

所以我不介意告诉你。

Even though the Iranians never said, “We’re building a latent nuclear weapons capability,” that’s clearly what they’re doing is showing that they can make a nuke, so don’t make me make a nuke.

尽管伊朗人从未说过，“我们正在建设潜在的核武器能力”，但这显然是他们正在做的事情，表明他们可以制造核武器，所以不要让我制造核武器。

That has been their position.

这就是他们的立场。

Their position has not been, “I’m making a nuke so I can wipe Israel off the map.” Their position has been, “Look, if you guys don’t attack us, we could just keep this civilian program the way it is.” And again, there’s always the implication that they’re just building up this uranium stockpile, but no, they’re not.

他们的立场并不是“我正在制造核武器，这样我就可以将以色列从地图上抹去”。他们的立场是，“听着，如果你们不攻击我们，我们就可以让这个民用项目保持原样。”再说一次，总有人暗示他们只是在建立铀库存，但不，他们没有。

Point made.

点已成。

41:52 Let’s try, if possible, to keep it to a minute and two of back and forth-

如果可能的话，让我们尝试将时间控制在一分钟和两分钟内——

I said the problem is we’re talking about nuclear stuff, which is all very complicated, and most people don’t know much about it, which is what the war party is relying on, that people just hear nuclear, afraid, and mushroom cloud and give the benefit of the doubt to the hawks.

我说问题是我们正在谈论核问题，这一切都非常复杂，大多数人对此了解不多，而这正是战争一方所依赖的，人们只是听到核、恐惧和蘑菇云，并把怀疑的好处给了鹰派。

41:58 And so we got to get into the details of this stuff.

所以我们必须深入了解这些东西的细节。

Details 100%, but I like the tension between two people with different perspectives exploring those details.

100% 细节，但我喜欢两个以不同视角探索这些细节的人之间的紧张关系。

42:13 And the more we can go back and forth, the better.

我们可以来回越多越好。

And there’s a lot of disagreement on the table.

桌面上存在很多分歧。

I personally enjoy learning from the disagreement, I think, a lot-

我个人认为，我非常喜欢从分歧中学习——

That was a very long list of claims that he made, though, where I felt I had to go down the list as much as I could because there was a lot-

不过，这是他提出的一长串主张，我觉得我必须尽可能详细地列出清单，因为有很多——

I think you addressed maybe one or two claims, and it took 15 minutes.

我认为您可能解决了一两个索赔，并且花了 15 分钟。

42:34 That’s why I’m just commenting on-

这就是为什么我只是评论——

That’s fair.

这很公平。

…

……

42:40 let’s do one at a time.

让我们一次做一个。

I like the tension of the debate of back and forth.

我喜欢来回辩论的紧张感。

That’s all.

就这样。

Mark, do you want to comment on stuff a little bit here?

马克，你想对这里的事情发表一些评论吗？

Pick whichever topic you want to go with here.

在这里选择您想要讨论的主题。

There’s a lot there.

那里有很多。

42:51 Just couple of things, I think, that are worth your viewers knowing.

我认为，有几件事值得观众了解。

Because Scott’s right.

因为斯科特是对的。

I mean, the nuclear physics is complicated, and it’s also important.

我的意思是，核物理很复杂，但也很重要。

The Iranians have assembled about …

伊朗人聚集在一起……

They say about 15 to 17 bombs worth of 60% enriched uranium.

他们说大约有 15 到 17 枚炸弹，含有 60% 的浓缩铀。

And I think it’s always important for your listeners to understand, what does this all mean?

我认为让听众理解这一切意味着什么总是很重要的？

Enriched to 3.67%, to 20%, to 60%, and then to 90% weapons-grade uranium.

浓缩到3.67%、20%、60%，然后是90%武器级铀。

What does this actual process mean?

这个实际过程意味着什么？

That’s fascinating.

这很有趣。

43:35 Yes.

是的。

I think it’s, again, important just to understand the sort of basics before we jump into the allegations and claims and counterclaims.

我认为，在我们开始讨论指控、主张和反主张之前，了解这些基础知识很重要。

43:37 If you’re going to enrich to 3.67% enriched uranium, that’s for civilian nuclear power.

如果你要把浓缩铀浓缩到 3.67%，那是为了民用核电。

But when you do that, you’re basically 70% of what you need to get to weapons grade.

但当你这样做时，你基本上已经完成了达到武器等级所需的 70%。

You’ve done all the steps, 70% of the steps, in order to get to weapons-grade uranium.

为了获得武器级铀，您已经完成了所有步骤，70% 的步骤。

Medical isotopes.

医用同位素。

Correct.

正确的。

44:16 Iran has a Tehran research reactor for medical isotopes.

伊朗拥有德黑兰医用同位素研究反应堆。

By the way, you can buy those isotopes from abroad, or you can produce them at home.

顺便说一句，你可以从国外购买这些同位素，也可以在国内生产。

If you’re going to enrich to 60%, then you’ve done 99% of what you need to get to weapons-grade uranium.

如果你打算浓缩到 60%，那么你已经完成了获得武器级铀所需的 99%。

And then 90% is quote weapons-grade uranium.

然后90%是武器级铀。

By the way, you can use 60% to actually deliver a crude nuclear device.

顺便说一句，你可以用 60% 来实际交付一个原始核装置。

That has been done in the past, but you want to get to quote 90%.

过去已经这样做过，但你想得到 90% 的报价。

That’s weapons-grade uranium, as Scott’s defining it.

正如斯科特所定义的那样，这就是武器级铀。

But just again, to clarify, these huge stockpiles of 60% that Iran has accumulated, this 16, 17 bombs worth of 60%, is 99% of what they need for weapons-grade.

但再次澄清一下，伊朗积累的60%的巨大库存，这16、17枚炸弹的价值为60%，是他们武器级所需的99%。

I just wanted to explain that.

我只是想解释一下。

But when you say …

但当你说……

45:03 You’re saying if you include the mining, the refining of the ore into yellow cake, the transformation of that into uranium hexafluoride gas, the driving of it in a truck over to the centrifuge, and then spinning it, this is where we get this 90% number from, right?

你是说，如果你把采矿、将矿石精炼成黄饼、将其转化为六氟化铀气体、用卡车将其开到离心机，然后将其旋转，这就是我们得到这个 90% 的数字的地方，对吗？

In place of 90% enriched uranium or 80% enriched uranium.

代替90%浓缩铀或80%浓缩铀。

It’s 90% of the way on some chart that includes picking up a shovel and beginning to mine.

在某些图表上，这已经完成了 90%，包括拿起铲子并开始采矿。

Right?

正确的？

Again, just to clarify, I just think it’s important to understand the definition of terms.

再次澄清一下，我认为理解术语的定义很重要。

45:34 Once you have 60% enriched uranium, you’ve done 99% of all the steps, including some of the steps that Scott’s talking about.

一旦你拥有了 60% 的浓缩铀，你就完成了 99% 的所有步骤，包括斯科特谈到的一些步骤。

You’ve done 99% of what you need to have weapons-grade-

你已经完成了武器级所需任务的 99%——

That’s just meaningless.

那毫无意义。

Why is that meaningless?

为什么这毫无意义？

Well, as I’ve already established numerous times here, under the JCPOA, they shipped out every bit of their enriched uranium stockpile.

嗯，正如我已经多次指出的那样，根据联合全面行动计划，他们运出了所有浓缩铀库存。

45:51 The French turned it into fuel rods and then shipped it back.

法国人把它变成燃料棒然后运回来。

That’s the deal they’re trying to get the US back into and were obviously clearly willing to do.

这就是他们试图让美国重新加入的协议，而且显然他们也愿意这么做。

And again, the only reason they were enriching up to 60% was to put the pressure on the Americans to go ahead and get back into the deal.

再说一次，他们致富高达 60% 的唯一原因是向美国人施加压力，要求他们继续达成协议。

And bad bet.

而且赌注不好。

It gave them an excuse to bomb based on the idea that people are going to listen to him, pretend that somehow that’s 99% of the way to the bomb, when you’re including driving to the mine and mining it and converting it to yellow cake and all these other things.

这给了他们轰炸的借口，因为人们会听他的，假装这就是 99% 的炸弹方法，当你开车去矿井开采它并将其转化为黄蛋糕和所有其他东西时。

You’re going to have a deliverable nuclear weapon, so you need the weapons-grade uranium.

你将拥有可运载的核武器，所以你需要武器级铀。

46:28 And just to repeat, they have multiple bombs worth of the 60% enriched uranium, which, again, is 99% of the steps you need to take for weapons grade.

再说一遍，他们拥有多枚相当于 60% 浓缩铀的炸弹，这也是武器级所需步骤的 99%。

They’re very close to weapons grade.

它们非常接近武器等级。

It’s 1% more that they need to do to enrich to weapons grade.

他们需要多做 1% 才能丰富到武器等级。

If I can jump in here on this point, too, and I’ll turn it back over to you, but I actually have a bit of a correction to make.

如果我也能在这里谈谈这一点，我会把它转回给你，但实际上我有一些更正要做。

48:35 For anyone who’s seen me on Piers Morgan or a Saagar and Krystal, I actually oversimplified and made a mistake.

对于任何看过我在 Piers Morgan 或 Saagar and Krystal 上的人来说，我实际上过于简单化并犯了一个错误。

I’ve been off of the Iran nuclear beat for a little while doing other things, and so I’d like to take this opportunity to clarify, and I’m going to try to clarify with them on their shows, too, was I have …

我已经离开伊朗核问题一段时间了，而在做其他事情，所以我想借此机会澄清一下，我也将尝试在他们的节目中向他们澄清，我是否……

An old friend of mine used to make nuclear bombs, Gordon Prather, and I only just found out that he died two years ago, unfortunately.

我的一位老朋友戈登·普拉瑟曾经制造过核弹，我直到两年前才得知他不幸去世了。

He used to write for us at antiwar.com.

他曾经在 antiwar.com 上为我们撰稿。

He’s a brilliant nuclear physicist and H-bomb developer, and he had really taught me all about this stuff.

他是一位出色的核物理学家和氢弹开发商，他确实教会了我所有这些东西。

They could drop it as a bomb?

他们可以把它当作炸弹扔掉吗？

They could test it in the desert and beat their chest, but essentially that’s all they could do.

他们可以在沙漠中进行测试并捶胸顿足，但基本上这就是他们所能做的。

Or you could drop it from a plane like we did, as Scott said, in with Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

或者你也可以像我们在广岛和长崎那样，把它从飞机上扔下来，正如斯科特所说。

Well, very slim chance of Iranian heavy bombers getting through Israeli airspace, but anyway.

好吧，伊朗重型轰炸机穿过以色列领空的可能性很小，但无论如何。

The blueprints were given.

蓝图已经给出。

50:49 Just to clarify, it’s just interesting just in the terms of the history of proliferation.

需要澄清的是，就扩散历史而言，这很有趣。

Iran’s initial nuclear program, which is built on centrifuges, as Scott and I have been talking about …

正如斯科特和我一直在谈论的那样，伊朗最初的核计划是建立在离心机基础上的……

That was actually given to …

那实际上是给了……

The designs of that were given to them by AQ Khan who was really the father of the Pakistani nuclear program, and he actually stole those designs from the Dutch and handed it to the Iranians.

该设计是由 AQ Khan 提供给他们的，他实际上是巴基斯坦核计划之父，他实际上从荷兰人那里窃取了这些设计并将其交给了伊朗人。

He also handed it to the North Koreans and the Libyans and others.

他还将其交给了朝鲜、利比亚和其他国家。

They were able to illicitly acquire this technology, or at least the blueprints for this technology, from the father of the Pakistani bomb.

他们能够从巴基斯坦炸弹之父那里非法获取这项技术，或者至少是这项技术的蓝图。

I think that’s an interesting point, but if you don’t mind-

我认为这是一个有趣的观点，但如果你不介意的话——

As I said earlier, because Bill Clinton clamped down on the Chinese and wouldn’t let them sell or anyone else wouldn’t let them sell them light water reactors, so then they went to AQ Khan and bought the stuff on the black market.

正如我之前所说，因为比尔·克林顿（Bill Clinton）压制中国人，不让他们出售轻水反应堆，或者其他任何人也不让他们向他们出售轻水反应堆，所以他们就去找AQ Khan并在黑市上购买了这些东西。

And they obviously bought heavy water reactors from the Russians, which they’ve been using for electricity.

他们显然从俄罗斯人那里购买了重水反应堆，并一直用它来发电。

51:41 I want to just get to the second thing.

我想谈谈第二件事。

I think it’s just important for listeners to know, and then I want to get to JCPOA-

我认为让听众知道这一点很重要，然后我想谈谈联合全面行动计划——

I was in the middle of saying, though, when you’re trying to make a uranium implosion bomb or a plutonium implosion bomb, it’s a much more difficult task than putting together a gun-type nuke.

不过，我想说的是，当你试图制造铀内爆炸弹或钚内爆炸弹时，这比组装枪型核武器要困难得多。

51:52 Takes an extraordinary amount of testing.

需要进行大量的测试。

And that’s why he repeated, probably unknowingly, some false propaganda about Iran having this advanced testing facility.

这就是为什么他可能在不知情的情况下重复了一些关于伊朗拥有这种先进测试设施的虚假宣传。

I think he was implying …

我认为他是在暗示……

Correct me if I’m wrong.

如果我错了请纠正我。

I’m pretty sure you’re implying at Parchin that they were testing these implosion systems, but that’s completely debunked.

我很确定你是在暗示 Parchin 他们正在测试这些内爆系统，但这完全被揭穿了。

It’s completely false.

这是完全错误的。

First of all, I’m glad Scott knows about what’s going on at Parchin because the IAEA doesn’t, and they’ve been asking the Iranians-

首先，我很高兴斯科特知道帕尔钦发生的事情，因为国际原子能机构不知道，而且他们一直在问伊朗人-

That’s not true.

那不是真的。

54:10 That’s not true.

那不是真的。

The Iranians told the IAEA, “You can inspect any five out of 10 facilities here carte blanche.

伊朗人告诉国际原子能机构，“你可以全权检查这里十个设施中的任何五个。

Go ahead.” And they did and found nothing.

继续吧。”他们确实这么做了，但什么也没发现。

Then they made up the lies about the implosion chamber later.

后来他们又编造了有关内爆室的谎言。

And the IAEA …

还有国际原子能机构……

Again, Robert Kelly is the American IAEA guy.

罗伯特·凯利再次是美国原子能机构的负责人。

Debunked that in the Christian Science Monitor.

在《基督教科学箴言报》中揭穿了这一点。

All right.

好的。

54:27 I want to just, again, just put it out there for your listeners.

我想再一次把它放在那里给你们的听众。

They should just Google AMAD, A-M-A-D, program, and they should learn about the AMAD program because it’s detailed in US government documents, experts in Iran’s nuclear program, including David Albright who actually saw the archive, went in there, wrote a whole book on it, and there’s a lot of detail about how Iran had an active nuclear weapons program called AMAD to build five nuclear weapons.

他们应该用谷歌搜索 AMAD、A-M-A-D 计划，他们应该了解 AMAD 计划，因为美国政府文件中有详细介绍，伊朗核计划专家，包括实际看到档案的大卫·奥尔布赖特 (David Albright)，进入那里，写了一整本书，其中有很多关于伊朗如何拥有一个名为 AMAD 的活跃核武器计划来制造五枚核武器的细节。

Somebody give me a screenshot of this.

有人给我这个的截图吗？

59:23 Give me a pound, dude.

给我一磅，伙计。

There we go.

我们开始吧。

Agreement.

协议。

There we go.

我们开始吧。

That’s fine.

没关系。

That makes my heart feel-

这让我的心感到——

And I think the Ayatollah would’ve gone for it too.

我认为阿亚图拉也会这么做。

Well, I’m not sure if he would’ve, but let’s …

好吧，我不确定他是否愿意，但让我们……

59:32 Just a little bit of history.

只是一点点历史。

I think it’s just useful for the viewers to know, again, the context, especially when Scott and I agree.

我认为这对于观众来说再次了解背景很有用，尤其是当斯科特和我同意的时候。

A process was begun-

一个过程开始了——

I’m loving this so much.

我非常喜欢这个。

…

……

59:44 by the Trump administration.

由特朗普政府。

Trump appointed Brian Hook, or Secretary Pompeo actually appointed Brian Hook, who was the lead Iran envoy, and he began a process of talking to the Europeans.

特朗普任命了布莱恩·胡克，或者国务卿蓬佩奥实际上任命了伊朗首席特使布莱恩·胡克，他开始了与欧洲人对话的过程。

Now, the Europeans actually rejected this idea.

现在，欧洲人实际上拒绝了这个想法。

And so at some point Trump said, “Look, if the Europeans aren’t prepared to get onside, then I’m out of the deal.

因此，特朗普在某个时候说：“听着，如果欧洲人不准备加入，那么我就退出这项协议。

I’m out of the deal.” And if you’re interested, I can talk about why I thought we should have stayed in the deal.

我退出了这笔交易。”如果你有兴趣，我可以谈谈为什么我认为我们应该留在这笔交易中。

Because I thought it gave us some important restrictions in the short term, certain leverage, but Trump decides to withdraw from that agreement because he recognizes that the fatal flaw of the agreement, the fatal flaws of the agreement are, one, giving them any enrichment capability, especially at an industrial size, within 15 years.

因为我认为它在短期内给了我们一些重要的限制，一定的影响力，但特朗普决定退出该协议，因为他认识到该协议的致命缺陷，该协议的致命缺陷是，第一，在15年内赋予他们任何浓缩能力，特别是工业规模的浓缩能力。

I’d like to go ahead and quickly accuse the FBI and the CIA of framing Trump for treason with Russia and pushing the Russiagate hoax.

我想继续快速指责联邦调查局和中央情报局指责特朗普背叛俄罗斯并推动“通俄门”骗局。

1:00:39 I’m trying to agree with my friend here.

我试图同意我朋友的观点。

Because what it is is that that completely ruined Donald Trump’s ability to engage in real diplomacy with Russia for his entire first term.

因为这完全毁掉了唐纳德·特朗普在其整个第一个任期内与俄罗斯进行真正外交的能力。

Certainly, for the first three years of it, he was completely handcuffed.

当然，在最初的三年里，他是完全被戴上手铐的。

It was terrible, as I’m sure you’re well aware, for the future, now our past, and current history of Ukraine, as well as for this deal too.

我相信你很清楚，这对未来、我们的过去、乌克兰当前的历史以及这笔交易来说都是可怕的。

Actually, can I just say one thing interesting?

其实我能说一件有趣的事吗？

1:01:39 And again, I think it’s going to be a later topic, and so it’s going to be a provocative statement, but I think let’s put it on the table.

再说一遍，我认为这将是一个稍后的话题，因此这将是一个挑衅性的声明，但我认为让我们把它放在桌面上。

I absolutely agree with Scott.

我完全同意斯科特的观点。

I think it was a travesty of the accusations against Donald Trump as a Russian agent.

我认为这是对唐纳德·特朗普作为俄罗斯特工指控的嘲讽。

I mean, completely debunked, but it did …

我的意思是，完全被揭穿了，但它确实……

I think it paralyzed.

我觉得是瘫痪了

1:02:00 I mean, completely debunked.

我的意思是，完全被揭穿了。

But it did, I think it paralyzed his presidency for two, two and a half years.

但它确实发生了，我认为这使他的总统任期瘫痪了两年、两年半。

I agree with Scott.

我同意斯科特的观点。

The idea that you would accuse the President of the United States of being a foreign agent for Vladimir Putin, I think is unfounded.

我认为你指责美国总统是弗拉基米尔·普京的外国代理人的想法是没有根据的。

And I thought at the time, disgraceful, and I thought it was really important.

我当时就想，这很丢脸，但我觉得这真的很重要。

I think Scott did really good work in debunking that.

我认为斯科特在揭穿这一点方面做得非常好。

Now, I was making a point.

现在，我正在表达一个观点。

1:02:54 That’s hyperbole, making a point.

这是夸张的说法，有道理。

But he did.

但他做到了。

In fact, could you Google this for me?

事实上，你能帮我谷歌一下吗？

Because I always forget exactly how many hundreds of millions of dollars that he took from Sheldon Adelson and Miriam Adelson.

因为我总是忘记他到底从谢尔登·阿德尔森和米里亚姆·阿德尔森那里拿走了多少亿美元。

Who are Americans by the way.

顺便说一下谁是美国人。

Who are Americans.

谁是美国人。

1:03:06 Who, Sheldon Adelson said his only regret in life is that he served in the American Army instead of the IDF, and said America should nuke Iran in order to get them to give up their nuclear weapons.

谢尔登阿德尔森说，他一生中唯一的遗憾是他在美国陆军服役，而不是在以色列国防军服役，并表示美国应该对伊朗进行核打击，以让他们放弃核武器。

He said, “I have one issue, one.

他说：“我有一个问题，一个。

Israel.

以色列。

And they gave Trump hundreds of millions of dollars over three campaigns.” That’s not just a, “Geez, I really hope you’ll think of me in the future.”

他们在三场竞选活动中为特朗普提供了数亿美元。”这不仅仅是“天啊，我真的希望你将来能想到我。”

Scott, first of all, a couple of things.

斯科特，首先，有几件事。

1:03:27 So one, there’s a lot of people that are friends with Trump and try to gain influence.

因此，有很多人是特朗普的朋友，并试图获得影响力。

I believe that Trump, as an American, is making his own decisions.

我相信特朗普作为一个美国人，正在做出自己的决定。

Let’s, for the purpose of this conversation, just focus on that and see what are the right decisions and what are the wrong decisions, and maybe-

为了这次对话的目的，让我们专注于这一点，看看什么是正确的决定，什么是错误的决定，也许-

I wonder what decisions I could get you to make if I gave you hundreds of millions of dollars.

我想知道如果我给你数亿美元，我能让你做出什么决定。

Well, me personally, you couldn’t give me…

好吧，就我个人而言，你不能给我……

1:03:49 It doesn’t matter.

没关系。

I couldn’t get you to drop in on a vert ramp or nothing for a hundred million bucks.

我无法花一亿美元让你去垂直坡道或什么都没有。

Nothing.

没有什么。

1:03:56 You cannot control my decisions with money.

你无法用金钱来控制我的决定。

It’s the American system, Lex.

这是美国的制度，莱克斯。

1:03:59 That’s how it works.

这就是它的工作原理。

It’s money.

这是钱。

I appreciate that, yeah.

我很欣赏这一点，是的。

Right.

正确的。

We can go down that route.

我们可以沿着那条路走。

It’s the same if we were talking about Archer Daniels Midland company throwing hundreds of millions of dollars around.

如果我们谈论阿彻丹尼尔斯米德兰公司投入数亿美元，情况也是如此。

1:04:04 They get policies based on their hundreds of millions of dollars.

他们根据自己的数亿美元获得保单。

The squeaky wheel gets the grease, right?

吱吱作响的轮子沾上了油脂，对吗？

All that.

所有这些。

So Lex, I think you’re right.

所以莱克斯，我认为你是对的。

1:04:14 I mean, I think Elon Musk spent what, $400 million helping Trump get elected.

我的意思是，我认为埃隆·马斯克花了 4 亿美元帮助特朗普当选。

And obviously, there are a number of philanthropists.

显然，有很多慈善家。

I think, clearly his son, Don Jr’s had a lot of influence in who gets selected in these positions in the Pentagon, NSC, and Tucker Carlson has had a lot of influence.

我认为，显然他的儿子小唐对五角大楼、国家安全委员会这些职位的选择有很大的影响力，而塔克·卡尔森也有很大的影响力。

So I think as you say, he surrounds himself with people who have certain ideas, ideologies, policies.

所以我认为正如你所说，他周围都是有某些想法、意识形态和政策的人。

The President makes his own decisions.

总统自己做出决定。

It’s a Mossad officer’s accusation.

这是摩萨德官员的指控。

Yeah.

是的。

Victor Ostrovsky, is his name.

维克多·奥斯特洛夫斯基，是他的名字。

Yeah.

是的。

1:05:15 I know exactly who he is, and he has been widely discredited and having an ax to grind with Mossad.

我确切地知道他是谁，他已经被广泛抹黑，并与摩萨德有别扭的关系。

But anyway, not only ’83, but all through the 90s, the 2000s, 2010s, 2020s, there have been hundreds of attacks, of assassinations, of hostage taking.

但无论如何，不​​仅是83年，整个90年代、2000年代、2010年代、2020年代，都发生了数百起袭击、暗杀、劫持人质事件。

There are thousands Americans who have been killed and maimed by the regime.

有数千名美国人被该政权杀害和残害。

Can you be specific what you’re talking about here?

您能具体说明一下您在这里谈论的是什么吗？

Yeah, I mean, I can give you a whole list.

是的，我的意思是，我可以给你一份完整的清单。

Sure.

当然。

Literally, I’m happy to pull it up.

从字面上看，我很高兴把它拉起来。

1:05:45 Lex, I shared it with you.

莱克斯，我和你分享了。

It’s a long list of attacks all through the 80s and 90s.

这是整个 80 年代和 90 年代的一长串攻击。

Yeah, yeah.

是啊是啊。

1:05:46 You sent me a link.

你给我发了一个链接。

I mean, everything from the Khobar Towers.

我的意思是，来自胡拜尔塔的一切。

The Khobar Towers was Al-Qaeda.

胡拜尔塔是基地组织的基地。

Well, can I-

好吧，我可以——

That was Osama bin Laden and Khalid Shaikh Mohammed.

那是奥萨马·本·拉登和哈立德·谢赫·穆罕默德。

Let him lay it out, please.

请让他把它摆出来。

All right.

好的。

1:06:02 Let’s hear them.

让我们听听他们的声音。

Yeah.

是的。

I got my pen in my hand.

我手里拿着笔。

1:06:04 Go ahead.

前进。

Yeah, and again, according to US intelligence findings, it was actually Hezbollah that worked with Al-Qaeda, trained Al-Qaeda in that attack in the Khobar Towers.

是的，根据美国情报部门的调查结果，实际上是真主党与基地组织合作，在胡拜尔塔袭击事件中训练了基地组织。

1:06:05 They were kidnapping our diplomats in Beirut.

他们正在绑架我们驻贝鲁特的外交官。

They launched attacks against our soldiers while in Iraq.

他们在伊拉克对我们的士兵发动了袭击。

The notion that somehow-

不知怎的，这个想法——

I already debunked that.

我已经揭穿了这一点。

No, I don’t think, well, you say you debunked it, you just made your claim.

不，我不认为，你说你揭穿了它，你只是提出了你的主张。

1:06:27 But those were Iran-backed militias, backed by Qasem Soleimani, who Scott referred to, who was the commander of the IRGC Quds Force, who supplied them with those IEDs or those EFPs, actually, those explosives.

但这些都是伊朗支持的民兵组织，得到了斯科特提到的卡西姆·苏莱马尼（Qasem Soleimani）的支持，他是伊斯兰革命卫队圣城部队的指挥官，为他们提供了那些简易爆炸装置或电子爆炸装置，实际上是那些爆炸物。

[inaudible 01:06:49].

[听不清 01:06:49]。

Well, again, this has been all confirmed.

好吧，这一切都已经被证实了。

Why don’t you search Alyssa Rubin, New York Times EFP factory?

为什么不搜索《纽约时报》EFP 工厂的 Alyssa Rubin？

1:06:52 Or you can look in the Christian Science Monitor for Operation Eagle Claw where-

或者你可以在基督教科学箴言报中查看鹰爪行动，其中-

Yeah.

是的。

…

……

1:06:59 they found these things.

他们发现了这些东西。

Yeah.

是的。

It’s easy to find in my book.

在我的书中很容易找到。

1:07:02 You can flip right to Soda Straws and EFPs.

您可以向右翻到汽水吸管和 EFP。

And you see where I have all my citations for the solid dozen American newspaper reporters who were embedded with American soldiers who found these factories in Iraqi Shiaistan with Iraqi Arabs working the machines, not Iran.

你看，我在哪里引用了十几名与美国士兵在一起的美国报纸记者，他们在伊拉克什叶斯坦发现了这些工厂，而伊拉克阿拉伯人在操作机器，而不是伊朗。

So I’d like your viewers to Google not just a couple of sources, but actually Google the US government reports that did a whole after-action report on the Iraq War.

所以我希望你们的观众不仅谷歌几个来源，而且实际上谷歌美国政府的报告，该报告对伊拉克战争做了完整的事后报告。

1:07:23 All the mistakes were made in the Iraq war, and there were legion of mistakes made.

所有的错误都是在伊拉克战争中犯下的，而且犯下的错误还有很多。

But it was very clear that Iran had actually provided the technology, the training, the funding for these Iran-backed militias to kill Americans.

但很明显，伊朗实际上为这些伊朗支持的民兵杀害美国人提供了技术、培训和资金。

I mean, I could see, Scott-

我是说，我看得出来，斯科特-

In fact they learned a method from Lebanese, Hezbollah that got it from the IRA.

事实上，他们从黎巴嫩真主党那里学到了一种从爱尔兰共和军那里得到的方法。

Well-

嗯-

They didn’t even get the technique from the Iranians at all.

他们甚至根本没有从伊朗人那里得到这项技术。

Yeah.

是的。

1:07:55 So Lebanese, Hezbollah, as I’m sure all your listeners know, has been trained, financed-

所以黎巴嫩真主党，我相信你们所有的听众都知道，已经接受过培训、资助——

It’s true-

这是真的——

…

……

1:08:01 and supported by-

并由以下机构支持——

…

……

but they got it from the IRA.

但他们是从爱尔兰共和军那里得到的。

…

……

Iran for many years.

伊朗很多年了。

The copper core bombs-

铜芯炸弹——

Yeah.

是的。

…

……

1:08:03 and that design did not come from Persia.

而且这个设计并非来自波斯。

Yeah.

是的。

1:08:05 So again, I think we all admit, Scott admits as well that Hezbollah was trained, financed, and supported by Iran.

所以，我想我们都承认，斯科特也承认真主党受到伊朗的训练、资助和支持。

Hezbollah’s been responsible for many of these terrorist attacks.

真主党对许多恐怖袭击负有责任。

Where does Hezbollah come from?

真主党从哪里来？

1:08:15 It’s a reaction to the Israeli invasion of Lebanon where they went after the PLO and horribly mistreated the poor local Iraqi Shiites until they rose up and created these militias to fight in self-defense.

这是对以色列入侵黎巴嫩的反应，他们追捕巴解组织，并可怕地虐待当地贫穷的伊拉克什叶派，直到他们起来并创建这些民兵进行自卫。

Again-

再说一遍——

That’s where Hezbollah comes from.

这就是真主党的由来。

Hezbollah was actually created by the IROGC before the Israeli invasion.

真主党实际上是由伊斯兰革命卫队在以色列入侵之前创建的。

1:08:27 Why-

为什么-

This was the CIA’s Bin Laden unit.

这是中央情报局的本拉登单位。

1:08:30 Mike Scheuer says it was Osama bin Laden and Khalid Shaikh Mohammed that did the Khobar Towers attack.

迈克·肖尔表示，是奥萨马·本·拉登和哈立德·谢赫·穆罕默德发动了胡拜尔塔袭击事件。

And who did they kill?

他们杀了谁？

They killed 19 American airmen who were stationed there to bomb Iraq from bases in Saudi Arabia under the Israeli insisted upon Dual Containment Policy-

在以色列坚持双重遏制政策的情况下，他们杀死了19名驻扎在那里从沙特阿拉伯基地轰炸伊拉克的美国飞行员——

What’s amazing-

有什么了不起的——

…

……

1:08:49 of Bill Clinton.

比尔·克林顿的。

What’s amazing, Scott-

令人惊奇的是，斯科特——

That came from Yitzhak Shamir who had sent his man Martin Indyk to work for Bill Clinton and push the Dual Containment Policy, is where that comes from in the first place.

这来自伊扎克·沙米尔（Yitzhak Shamir），他派他的手下马丁·因迪克（Martin Indyk）为比尔·克林顿（Bill Clinton）工作并推行双重遏制政策，这就是它的首要来源。

1:08:50 The main reason Al-Qaeda turned against the United States, and the Khobar Towers attack was Bin Laden, and he bragged about it himself to Abdel Bari Atwan, the reporter from Al-Quds, Al-Arabi in London, and spent days with him and bragged all about it and blessed the martyrs and the rest of that and has widely discredited the claim that it was Iranian-backed Shiite Hezbollah that did the Khobar Towers attack.

基地组织转而反对美国以及胡拜尔塔袭击事件的主要原因是本·拉登，他亲自向伦敦《圣城报》的记者阿卜杜勒·巴里·阿特万吹嘘此事，并与他一起度过了几天，吹嘘这一切，祝福烈士和其他人，并广泛否认伊朗支持的什叶派真主党发动了胡拜尔塔袭击事件。

So what we know now from Scott, because he’s given certainly a lot of context to how he actually sees things, is here’s who lies to you and here’s who doesn’t.

所以我们现在从斯科特那里知道，因为他确实给出了很多关于他如何看待事物的背景，谁对你撒谎，谁没有撒谎。

1:09:51 US government lies to you.

美国政府对你撒谎。

Israeli government lies to you.

以色列政府对你撒谎。

The Israelis clearly lie to you.

以色列人显然对你撒谎。

Mendacious bunch.

一群虚伪的人。

Saudis lie to you.

沙特人对你撒谎。

But you know who doesn’t lie to you, actually?

但你知道谁不会对你撒谎吗？

Hezbollah doesn’t lie to you.

真主党不会对你撒谎。

AL-Qaeda doesn’t lie to you.

基地组织不会对你撒谎。

I didn’t cite Al-Qaeda or-

我没有引用基地组织或-

The Ayatollah-

阿亚图拉——

…

……

1:10:17 or Hezbollah.

或真主党。

I cited Osama himself.

我引用了奥萨马本人的话。

And the Ayatollah of Iran won’t lie to you.

伊朗阿亚图拉不会对你撒谎。

I cited Michael Scheuer, the chief of the CIA’s bin Laden unit.

我引用了中央情报局本拉登部门负责人迈克尔·肖尔的说法。

1:10:20 Right?

正确的？

So make it clear here.

所以这里说清楚。

1:10:24 The Iranians-

伊朗人——

[inaudible 01:10:25] Hezbollah-

[听不清 01:10:25] 真主党-

The Iranians-

伊朗人——

Did you get that?

你明白了吗？

Scott, straight up, I hear you, but you’re interrupting and please, just honestly, it’s not about the content, but honestly.

斯科特，说实话，我听到了你的声音，但你打断了，请说实话，这不是内容的问题，而是诚实的。

How come you’re not saying to him, isn’t that weird that you just said he trusts Hezbollah even though he didn’t say anything about trusting Hezbollah?

你为什么不对他说，你刚才说他信任真主党，尽管他没有说任何关于信任真主党的事情，这不是很奇怪吗？

I’m not calling out the content.

我不会喊出内容。

1:10:39 I’m calling out the interruptions.

我正在大声疾呼。

He hasn’t interrupted you.

他没有打扰你。

It’s great.

这很棒。

I’m loving the back and forth.

我喜欢来回。

Yeah.

是的。

It is great.

太棒了。

1:10:46 But just a little less talking over each other.

但只是少了一点彼此的闲聊。

That’s all.

就这样。

Yeah.

是的。

1:10:49 So I mean, again, the sort of view of the regime in Iran, and I think Scott wisely said at the beginning of this discussion, what did you say?

所以我的意思是，再说一遍，对伊朗政权的看法，我认为斯科特在讨论开始时明智地说，你说什么？

“I don’t have any love for the Ayatollah.

“我对阿亚图拉没有任何爱。

I’m a Texan.

我是德克萨斯人。

I don’t have any love for the Ayatollah in Iran.” And yet, despite the fact, Scott, doesn’t have love for the Ayatollah, I agree with him and I think he’s being sincere, in every discussion that we’ve had on every topic, it’s always about everyone’s lying except the Ayatollah in Iran.

我对伊朗的阿亚图拉没有任何爱。”然而，尽管事实上，斯科特并不爱阿亚图拉，但我同意他的观点，我认为他是真诚的，在我们就每个话题进行的每一次讨论中，除了伊朗的阿亚图拉之外，每个人都在撒谎。

He’s not lying about having a nuclear weapons program.

他并没有在核武器计划方面撒谎。

Actually, that’s a good cue.

事实上，这是一个很好的暗示。

Take a bathroom break.

上个厕所休息一下。

Let’s take a bath and break.

我们去洗个澡​​休息一下吧。

All right.

好的。

Okay.

好的。

1:15:04 We took a quick break and now, Scott.

我们短暂休息了一下，现在，斯科特。

Yeah.

是的。

1:15:07 Okay.

好的。

So a few things there.

所以有一些事情。

First of all, on Ahmad, the pre-2003 nuclear weapons research, the CIA estimate in 2007 concluded that all research had stopped in 2003, and Seymour Hersh reported that the reasoning behind that was mainly that America had gotten rid of Saddam Hussein for them.

首先，关于艾哈迈德，2003年之前的核武器研究，中央情报局2007年的估计结论是所有研究在2003年就停止了，西摩·赫什报告说，其背后的原因主要是美国为他们除掉了萨达姆·侯赛因。

Now, in Gareth Porter’s book Manufactured Crisis, he shows that the major conclusion that the DIA had made, that the Iranians were researching nuclear weapons, was based on some invoices that they had intercepted for some dual use materials, some specialty magnets and things that they thought, “Boy, this looks like this could be part of a weaponization program, a secret program here.”

现在，在加雷斯·波特的《制造危机》一书中，他表明，国防情报局得出的主要结论，即伊朗人正在研究核武器，是基于他们截获的一些双重用途材料、一些特种磁铁和他们认为的东西的一些发票，“天哪，这看起来可能是武器化计划的一部分，这里是一个秘密计划。”

Scott, can I ask you a question?

斯科特，我可以问你一个问题吗？

1:17:24 Not a comment by me, but a question.

不是我的评论，而是一个问题。

Sure.

当然。

Just your perspective.

只是你的观点。

1:17:25 So just so I understand this, so the nuclear archive, this massive archive that the Israelis were able to take out of Tehran, bring to the United States, bring to the IAEA, which is very detailed blueprints.

因此，正如我所理解的那样，核档案，以色列人能够从德黑兰取出的大量档案，带到美国，带到国际原子能机构，这是非常详细的蓝图。

It’s just the alleged studies documents again, it’s the same stuff from the smoking laptop.

这又是所谓的研究文件，与冒烟的笔记本电脑中的内容相同。

Yeah.

是的。

1:17:43 So let me just ask you, because it’s huge, and it’s very detailed, and it shows clearly that Iran had an active nuclear weapons program, certainly until 2003.

所以让我问你，因为它很大，而且非常详细，它清楚地表明伊朗有一个活跃的核武器计划，当然直到 2003 年。

And then we can have a discussion about what happened after that.

然后我们可以讨论之后发生的事情。

Are you suggesting that that’s all been forged by Israel?

你是说这一切都是以色列伪造的吗？

Yes.

是的。

1:18:01 Nothing in this smoking laptop held up.

这台冒烟的笔记本电脑里没有任何东西能挡住。

All four?

全部四个？

1:18:03 Not the laptop, but this entire archive that they pulled out with the stats-

不是笔记本电脑，而是他们提取的整个档案以及统计数据-

You’re thinking of-

你在想——

…

……

1:18:09 and blueprints?

和蓝图？

…

……

the big photo op with all the folders of documents-

包含所有文档文件夹的大照片-

No, no-

不，不——

…

……

1:18:13 behind them and all.

在他们和所有人的身后。

…

……

I’ve seen it.

我见过。

I’ve seen it.

我见过。

I’ve seen many-

我见过很多——

How many pages were?

有多少页？

…

……

1:18:15 many of the documents.

许多文件。

There’s thousands of pages.

有数千页。

I’m asking, this is not what I’m claiming.

我问的是，这不是我所主张的。

Is that all forged by Israel?

这都是以色列捏造的吗？

Is that not all about the uranium tetra fluoride and the warhead that David Albright debunked and all the same claims that were in the smoking laptop from the Bush years?

这不就是大卫·奥尔布赖特揭穿的四氟化铀和弹头以及布什时代冒烟的笔记本电脑中所有相同的说法吗？

David Albright actually wrote an entire book.

大卫·奥尔布赖特实际上写了一整本书。

1:18:31 It’s a very detailed book your listeners should Google.

这是一本非常详细的书，你的听众应该谷歌一下。

It’s David Albright in the archive where he goes in, he went in detail and he confirms the information in that archive that Iran had an active program under something called Ahmad to develop five atomic weapons.

大卫·奥尔布赖特（David Albright）进入了档案馆，详细了解了档案中的信息，并确认了档案中的信息，即伊朗在名为艾哈迈德（Ahmad）的项目下有一项积极的计划，旨在开发五种原子武器。

So again, you and I can debate this all day.

再说一遍，你和我可以整天争论这个问题。

Now, this would’ve been before Natanz was even dug and before a single centrifuge was spinning right?

现在，这应该是在纳坦兹被挖掘之前，在一台离心机旋转之前吧？

And again, forget all that.

再说一遍，忘记这一切。

I’m just making sure everybody understands, assuming that was true, we were talking about a piece of paper?

我只是确保每个人都明白，假设这是真的，我们正在谈论一张纸？

It’s not a piece of paper.

它不是一张纸。

1:19:01 It’s a massive archive.

这是一个巨大的档案。

I’m just asking the question.

我只是问一个问题。

You believe Mossad fabricated all of this as a lie to deceive the United States, the IAEA, and the international community?

你认为摩萨德编造的这一切是为了欺骗美国、国际原子能机构和国际社会的谎言吗？

That’s just my question.

这只是我的问题。

My understanding is that there’s nothing significant in the 2018 archive that was not already in the debunked claims from the laptop.

我的理解是，2018 年档案中所有重要的内容都已经存在于笔记本电脑的被揭穿的声明中。

But my question is not that it’s debunked because we can argue about whether it’s debunked or not, but are you saying that Mossad fabricated it?

但我的问题不是它被揭穿了，因为我们可以争论它是否被揭穿，但你是说摩萨德捏造了它吗？

1:19:22 That’s what you’re claiming?

这就是你所主张的？

Yeah.

是的。

1:19:32 Yeah.

是的。

Yeah, because the CIA admitted that there was no laptop and Oli Heinonen admitted-

是的，因为中央情报局承认没有笔记本电脑，奥利·海诺宁也承认——

Not the laptop.

不是笔记本电脑。

…

……

1:19:37 that he got it from the MEK.

他是从 MEK 那里得到的。

I’m not asking about laptop.

我不是在问笔记本电脑。

I’m not asking for-

我不是在要求——

He got it from the MEK.

他从 MEK 那里得到了它。

Where did the MEK get it?

MEK 从哪里得到的？

The MEK got it from the Israelis.

MEK 从以色列人那里得到了它。

Scott, I’m not asking about the laptop.

斯科特，我不是在问笔记本电脑。

1:19:43 I’m asking about this huge archive that was sitting in a warehouse in Tehran full of-

我问的是德黑兰仓库里的这个巨大档案，里面装满了——

I don’t know the truth behind those documents.

我不知道这些文件背后的真相。

1:19:49 I don’t believe Israeli claims of what they were and where they came from without, for example, reading Albright’s book and seeing what he has to say about all of that.

我不相信以色列关于它们是什么以及它们来自哪里的说法，例如，如果没有读过奥尔布赖特的书并看看他对所有这些都说了些什么。

I don’t take Netanyahu’s claims.

我不接受内塔尼亚胡的说法。

Okay, so what’s so significant in there?

好吧，那么这里面有什么重要的呢？

You say that there’s a document that has a plan to make five bombs, but isn’t the rest of the proof the same green salt experiments and the warhead for the missile that David Albright showed was obviously fake, because the warhead was purportedly being designed for a missile that was now going to have an entirely different nose cone on it?

你说有一份文件计划制造五枚炸弹，但其余的证据难道不是同样的绿盐实验吗？大卫·奥尔布赖特展示的导弹弹头显然是假的，因为据称该弹头是为一枚导弹设计的，而该导弹现在将有一个完全不同的鼻锥？

No.

不。

1:20:26 So David Albright, again, we should bring David Albright here.

所以大卫·奥尔布赖特，我们应该再次把大卫·奥尔布赖特带到这里。

David Albright is a prominent physicist nuclear proliferation expert known for his detailed research and publication on nuclear weapons.

大卫·奥尔布赖特是一位著名的物理学家核扩散专家，以其对核武器的详细研究和出版物而闻名。

Yeah.

是的。

He has a bunch of books Peddling Peril, Iran’s Perilous Pursuit of Nuclear Weapons, Plutonium and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 and so on.

他有一堆书《兜售危险》、《伊朗危险地追求核武器》、《钚和高浓缩铀》，1996 年等等。

Yeah, so folks should read the book on the archive because David had full access to the archive, all the detailed documents and blueprints, and he writes a book that, again, the conclusion of which is Iran had an active nuclear weapons program.

是的，所以人们应该阅读有关档案的书，因为大卫可以完全访问档案、所有详细文件和蓝图，而且他写了一本书，其结论是伊朗有一个活跃的核武器计划。

No, no, no.

不，不，不。

1:21:00 The conclusion of which was they were researching it right before 2003.

结论是他们在 2003 年之前就在研究它。

They had no nuclear material to introduce into a single machine, right?

他们没有核材料可以引入一台机器，对吧？

Well, they actually-

嗯，他们实际上——

Active program, meaning they had- a piece of-

活跃计划，意味着他们有——一部分——

No, they had already built a covert enrichment facility, which was only-

不，他们已经建造了一座秘密浓缩设施，只是——

No they hadn’t.

不，他们没有。

It was closed.

它已经关门了。

Natanz was empty until the end of 2006, right?

纳坦兹直到 2006 年底都是空的，对吗？

1:21:14 They didn’t even start spinning centrifuges in there until ’06.

他们直到 06 年才开始在那里旋转离心机。

They had gotten centrifuges for AQ-Khan.

他们为 AQ-Khan 准备了离心机。

1:21:21 They’d built a deeply buried underground facility at Natanz.

他们在纳坦兹建造了一个深埋的地下设施。

They were putting in place the component parts for a nuclear weapons capability.

他们正在安装核武器能力的零部件。

And Ahmad showed, conclusively, unless you believe Mossad fabricated all-

艾哈迈德最终表明，除非你相信摩萨德捏造了这一切——

We’ll see.

我们会看到的。

…

……

1:21:39 that they actually had the plan to build nuclear warheads.

他们实际上有制造核弹头的计划。

Again, Seymour Hersh says that it was when-

西摩·赫什再次说道，当时——

Well, Seymour Hersh is not a nuclear weapons expert.

好吧，西摩·赫什不是核武器专家。

1:21:43 David Albright has, he saw the archive.

大卫·奥尔布赖特有，他看到了档案。

Hersh’s sources said-

赫什的消息来源说——

You’re claiming that America fabricated-

你声称美国编造了——

…

……

1:21:51 that when America invaded Iraq and overthrew Saddam Hussein for them, that was when they gave up, even considering the need for it.

当美国入侵伊拉克并为他们推翻萨达姆·侯赛因时，他们就放弃了，即使考虑到了这样做的必要性。

Remember, the Iranians held a million-man vigil for the Americans on September 11th.

请记住，9 月 11 日，伊朗人为美国人举行了百万人守夜活动。

The Iranians hated the Taliban.

伊朗人憎恨塔利班。

In fact, the Americans thought Iran might invade Afghanistan earlier in 2001, and they hated Saddam Hussein.

事实上，美国人早在2001年就认为伊朗可能会入侵阿富汗，他们对萨达姆侯赛因怀有仇恨。

Yeah.

是的。

So they had every reason in the world to want to work with the United States-

所以他们有充分的理由想要与美国合作——

No, that’s a distraction.

不，那是一种干扰。

…

……

1:22:14 after September 11th.

9月11日之后。

And the American-

还有美国人——

My questions to you.

我向你提出的问题。

1:22:15 It’s a distraction.

这是一种干扰。

My question-

我的问题-

It is-

它是——

…

……

1:22:18 let’s not go to al-Qaeda, the Taliban and 9/11 and the Iranians, and the Million People Vigil.

我们不要去基地组织、塔利班、9/11、伊朗人和百万人守夜活动。

Let’s just stay on the topic.

让我们继续主题吧。

You’re asking me what I already answered.

你问我我已经回答过的事情。

Do you believe Mossad fabricated that entire-

你相信摩萨德捏造了整个-

I already told you-

我已经告诉过你了——

…

……

1:22:28 archive?

存档？

…

……

1:22:29 I don’t take their word for anything.

我不相信他们的话。

And as far as I understand, the accusations in there are the same ones from the laptop that are already discredited.

据我了解，其中的指控与笔记本电脑中已经不可信的指控相同。

And I haven’t read David Albright’s book.

我还没有读过大卫·奥尔布赖特的书。

You’re distracting from me refuting this giant list of false claims that you made previously that I haven’t got a chance-

你驳斥了你之前声称我没有机会的一大堆虚假声明，这分散了我的注意力——

Okay.

好的。

1:22:44 Let’s all agree.

让我们都同意吧。

Let’s all agree, you’re going to read the book?

我们都同意，你要读这本书吗？

Maybe Lex, you’re going to read the book.

也许莱克斯，你会读这本书。

Viewers, you should read the book.

各位观众，你们应该看看这本书。

I think David Albright has done a meticulous job.

我认为大卫·奥尔布赖特做得很细致。

By the way, just warning, it’s a big book, very detailed, hundreds of pages.

顺便说一句，只是警告一下，这是一本大书，非常详细，有数百页。

And he goes through it in meticulous detail in analyzing this archive, and showed again that Iran had an active nuclear weapons program designed to build five atomic warheads.

他在分析这份档案时进行了一丝不苟的细节，并再次表明伊朗有一个积极的核武器计划，旨在制造五枚原子弹头。

Now we can talk about what happened after 2003, and did they make the decision to totally stop it?

现在我们可以谈谈2003年之后发生的事情，他们是否做出了完全停止的决定？

Yeah, God changed his mind after the Neoconservatives lied America into war with Iraq for Ariel Sharon.

是的，在新保守派为了阿里尔·沙龙而欺骗美国与伊拉克开战后，上帝改变了主意。

So just to clarify, you, Mark, and David Albright believed that Iran was developing a nuclear weapon.

澄清一下，你、马克和大卫·奥尔布赖特相信伊朗正在研制核武器。

1:23:16 And you, Scott are saying they were not before 2003?

而你，斯科特，是说 2003 年之前就没有？

I’m saying-

我是说——

That’s just to summarize what we were just talking about.

这只是总结我们刚才讨论的内容。

Well, I could tell you that, so Gareth’s book came out in 2014, which is before this archive was supposedly revealed in Tehran.

好吧，我可以告诉你，Gareth 的书于 2014 年出版，也就是这个档案在德黑兰被披露之前。

1:23:31 But in Gareth’s book, he shows that the CIA and National Intelligence estimate of 2007 that said that there was a program before 2003, and was halted after America invaded Iraq was based on one, the DIA’s mistaken, but sincere interpretation of these invoices for these dual use technologies.

但在加雷斯的书中，他表明中央情报局和国家情报局 2007 年的估计称 2003 年之前有一个计划，并在美国入侵伊拉克后停止，这是基于国防情报局对这些双重用途技术发票的错误但真诚的解释。

And then the smoking laptop, which was completely fake and funneled into the stream by the Mujahideen e-cult, communist terrorist cult.

然后是冒烟的笔记本电脑，它完全是假的，由圣战者电子邪教、共产主义恐怖邪教流入流中。

The same people who’ve come off with 10 major hoaxes.

这些人犯下了 10 个重大骗局。

The NCRI, the National Council for Resistance in Iran, that’s the MEK.

NCRI，伊朗全国抵抗委员会，即 MEK。

They just put out a fake story, what, three, four weeks ago about a big secret nuclear weapons site in Iran.

他们刚刚发表了一个假故事，三、四个星期前，关于伊朗的一个大型秘密核武器基地。

Don’t you remember?

你不记得了吗？

And then nothing happened with that because it was another lie by the MEK.

然后一切都没有发生，因为这是 MEK 的另一个谎言。

It happens all the time.

这种事经常发生。

So Lex, maybe we should talk about what happened after 2003.

所以 Lex，也许我们应该谈谈 2003 年之后发生的事情。

1:24:28 What about this 2007 NIE?

2007年的NIE怎么样？

What does it mean?

这是什么意思？

Did it mean Iran had now abandoned its nuclear weapons program or did something else happen?

这是否意味着伊朗现在已经放弃了核武器计划，还是发生了其他事情？

They never had a nuclear weapons program.

他们从未有过核武器计划。

All right, but let’s talk about that.

好吧，但我们来谈谈这个吧。

1:24:40 They had-

他们有——

[inaudible 01:24:42]-

[听不清 01:24:42]-

…

……

1:24:42 interesting history.

有趣的历史。

According to NIE, They had a nuclear weapons research program that never made anything at all.

根据 NIE 的说法，他们有一个核武器研究计划，但从未制造过任何东西。

1:24:43 So you can try to conflate that if you want.

因此，如果您愿意，可以尝试将其合并。

No.

不。

1:24:51 That’s not-

那不是——

But I think everybody can see what you’re doing there.

但我认为每个人都可以看到你在那里做什么。

…

……

1:24:53 what the 2007 NIE says.

2007 年 NIE 所说的话。

But the 2007 NIE says is that, and you are correct, according to the 2007 NIE is Iran made the decision after the invasion of Iraq not to pursue an active nuclear weapons program anymore.

但2007年的NIE说的是，你是对的，根据2007年的NIE，伊朗在入侵伊拉克后做出了不再继续实施核武器计划的决定。

Because we were putting their best friends in power in Baghdad for them.

因为我们让他们最好的朋友在巴格达为他们掌权。

Well, because the United States had gone in-

好吧，因为美国已经介入-

So they didn’t need to worry no more.

所以他们不需要再担心了。

And in a matter of 100 days, had taken down the Iraqi army.

并在短短100天内击溃了伊拉克军队。

And put in Abdul Aziz al-Hakim’s faction-

并加入阿卜杜勒·阿齐兹·哈基姆的派系——

That’s fine.

没关系。

…

……

1:25:22 the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq who’d been living in Iran for 20 years.

伊拉克伊斯兰革命最高委员会已在伊朗生活了 20 年。

That’s why you and I did not publicly support the Iraq War, did we?

这就是为什么你我没有公开支持伊拉克战争，不是吗？

I publicly opposed it.

我公开反对。

Good for you.

对你有好处。

As far as I possibly could.

尽我所能。

1:25:31 Thank you.

谢谢。

I should have publicly opposed it rather than just working on Iran in 2003.

我应该公开反对它，而不是在 2003 年就只关注伊朗问题。

1:25:32 But you’re right, it redounded to the benefit of Iran, that invasion.

但你是对的，这次入侵有利于伊朗的利益。

But that’s not actually what I’m talking about.

但这实际上不是我要说的。

What I’m talking about is 100 days the Iranian Sea that the US military has taken down the Iraqi army, that they had fought an eight-year war with where almost a million people, Scott, as you know, had been killed.

我所说的是伊朗海，美军在100天之内击垮了伊拉克军队，他们与伊拉克军队进行了长达八年的战争，斯科特，如你所知，几乎一百万人被杀。

So they were afraid that the United States was going to march from Baghdad to Tehran.

所以他们害怕美国要从巴格达向德黑兰进军。

So they make a decision to end their active Ahmad program.

因此，他们决定结束正在进行的艾哈迈德计划。

They make a decision to build up the key capabilities they need to retain an Iranian nuclear weapons option, specifically the enrichment capabilities at Natanz, and then Fordow, and at Iraq given them the plutonium route.

他们决定建立保留伊朗核武器选择所需的关键能力，特别是纳坦兹、福尔多和伊拉克的浓缩能力，为他们提供了钚路线。

And then what they do is they take the members of the Ahmad program, the nuclear weapons scientists that have worked on this, and they disperse them.

然后他们所做的就是带走艾哈迈德计划的成员，以及致力于此的核武器科学家，然后驱散他们。

So they’re now no longer in a formal weapons program.

所以他们现在不再参与正式的武器计划。

They’re put in a number of different research centers and universities.

它们被放置在许多不同的研究中心和大学中。

But-

但是——

But, sorry, just to finish.

但是，抱歉，只是为了结束。

1:27:58 So just understand the brilliance of Iranian nuclear deception, right?

那么就了解一下伊朗核欺骗的高明之处吧？

I think it’s really interesting to get in the minds of the Ayatollah and understand this, because he doesn’t want to provoke the United States.

我认为深入阿亚图拉的内心并理解这一点真的很有趣，因为他不想激怒美国。

He doesn’t want to see another Iraq-style invasion, this time of his country.

他不想看到另一场伊拉克式的入侵，这次是对他的国家的入侵。

He’s building this capability on the enrichment side and on the reprocessing side.

他正在浓缩方面和后处理方面建立这种能力。

He is framing this as I’m only building a civilian nuclear program.

他之所以这么说，是因为我只是在建设一个民用核计划。

He’s taken the weapons scientists who are building part of an active nuclear weapons program, and he’s dispersing them, putting them under the guidance and direction of Fakhrizadeh and starting to build out these capabilities.

他带走了正在构建活跃核武器计划一部分的武器科学家，并将他们分散，将他们置于法赫里扎德的指导和指导下，并开始建立这些能力。

Two things.

有两件事。

1:29:45 One, can you go and respond to certain things that you heard?

第一，你能去回应一下你听到的某些事情吗？

And two, can we generally move in the direction of the modern day and trying to see what is the right thing now, our analysis of the situation now, we’ve been kind of staying in the context of history, which is really important, but sort of moving it forward?

第二，我们能否总体上朝着现代的方向前进，并试图看看现在什么是正确的事情，我们对现在情况的分析，我们一直停留在历史的背景下，这确实很重要，但有点推动它前进？

But yeah, go ahead please.

但是，是的，请继续。

I’m not sure how much time we have.

我不确定我们还有多少时间。

1:30:08 I kind of hoped-

我有点希望——

unlimited.

无限。

…

……

1:30:11 you’d let me talk about Israel’s role in Iraq War, too, and for that matter in Barack Obama’s dirty war in Syria that led to the rise of the bin Ladenites there.

你也可以让我谈谈以色列在伊拉克战争中的角色，以及巴拉克·奥巴马在叙利亚的肮脏战争中所扮演的角色，这场战争导致了本·拉登分子的崛起。

It’s all part of America’s Israel policy.

这都是美国以色列政策的一部分。

So I don’t want to, I’d rather go back before we go forward.

所以我不想，我宁愿先回去再继续。

But I also do, I need to go back over so many claims that he’s made here that I’d like to address.

但我也这样做，我需要回顾他在这里提出的许多我想解决的主张。

So I strongly prefer we go, because there’s so much history, we’re going to lose ourselves in it.

所以我强烈建议我们去，因为那里有太多的历史，我们会迷失其中。

1:30:31 There’s not enough hours.

时间不够。

We should take certain moments in history that instruct the modern day, but let’s not get lost there if it’s okay.

我们应该以历史上的某些时刻来指导现代，但如果可以的话，我们也不要迷失在那里。

Sure.

当然。

This is such a fascinating conversation, Iraqi-

这是一次如此有趣的对话，伊拉克-

We talked about the JCPOA and the time between then and now quite a bit already too.

我们也已经多次谈论了联合全面行动计划以及从那时到现在的时间。

Yes.

是的。

So we’ll be going back over some of that.

所以我们将回顾其中的一些内容。

Well, no, I mean modern day, I don’t mean-

嗯，不，我是说现代，我不是说-

You’re talking about this week.

你说的是本周。

…

……

1:30:57 I mean this week.

我是说这周。

Okay.

好的。

A lot of stuff happened this week and a lot of stuff will happen tomorrow and the next week.

这周发生了很多事情，明天和下周也会发生很多事情。

1:30:58 And everyone wants to know what is going to happen.

每个人都想知道会发生什么。

What is the worst case, what is the best case?

最坏的情况是什么，最好的情况是什么？

Should we be freaking out?

我们应该惊慌失措吗？

What do we need to understand about today?

今天我们需要了解什么？

That’s all.

就这样。

All right, so there’s a lot of things to address here.

好吧，这里有很多事情需要解决。

1:31:13 So first of all, something that me and Mr. Dubowitz agree about.

首先，我和杜博维茨先生都同意这一点。

Please call me Mark.

请叫我马克。

Mark.

标记。

1:31:19 Something that Mark and I agree about is that there actually is not a threat of an aggressive first strike by Iran.

马克和我一致认为，伊朗实际上不存在首先发动侵略性打击的威胁。

I’m a little surprised to hear him say that, but I’m grateful to hear him say that.

听到他这么说我有点惊讶，但我很高兴听到他这么说。

It is honest.

这是诚实的。

I would advise you, you may be unfamiliar with this, but I can tell you anyone in America who drives for a living and listens to AM radio have heard claims that Iran was making nuclear weapons probably 50,000 times in the last 25 years.

我建议你，你可能对此不熟悉，但我可以告诉你，在美国，任何一个以开车为生并收听 AM 广播的人都听说过伊朗在过去 25 年里可能制造了 50,000 次核武器的说法。

Over and over and over again, we hear this propaganda.

我们一遍又一遍地听到这种宣传。

No, they never said that.

不，他们从来没有这么说过。

He didn’t say-

他没有说——

1:33:00 …

……

out for a nuke.

出去寻找核武器。

I’ll nuke them if I have to.

如果有必要的话我会用核武器攻击他们。

No, they never said that.

不，他们从来没有这么说过。

He didn’t say that, but the implication was-

他没这么说，但言下之意是——

By the way, no US president ever said they’re going to obliterate Iran.

顺便说一句，没有哪位美国总统说过他们要消灭伊朗。

1:33:05 US president said-

美国总统说——

Hillary Clinton did.

希拉里·克林顿做到了。

…

……

1:33:09 all options are on the table.

所有的选择都摆在桌面上。

Anyone can Google her word.

任何人都可以用谷歌搜索她的话。

She was never our president.

她从来都不是我们的总统。

No, I said she was running for president.

不，我说她正在竞选总统。

But she was never our president.

但她从来不是我们的总统。

1:33:15 But no US president ever said they’re to obliterate Iran.

但没有一位美国总统说过他们要消灭伊朗。

Nobody ever said they could drop a nuke on Iran.

没有人说过他们可以对伊朗投下核武器。

The implication was clear under W.

W 下的含义很明确。

1:33:20 Bush, Barack Obama, Trump, Biden, and Trump again-

布什、巴拉克·奥巴马、特朗普、拜登，又是特朗普——

That they would strike Iran’s nuclear facilities.

他们将袭击伊朗的核设施。

If they broke out toward a nuclear weapon, America would do whatever it took to prevent that from happening.

如果他们爆发核武器，美国将不惜一切代价阻止这种情况发生。

Strike their nuclear facilities.

打击他们的核设施。

That was always the case there.

那里的情况总是如此。

But please clarify, just to be accurate, I was talking about nuking Iran.

但请澄清一下，为了准确起见，我说的是用核武器攻击伊朗。

I’m almost certain no one’s-

我几乎可以肯定没有人——

No one’s talking about bombing Iran to smithereens or obliterating or any of that.

没有人谈论将伊朗炸成碎片或消灭之类的。

That’s really not true.

这确实不是真的。

1:33:46 I mean.

我是说。

US presidents-

美国总统——

Barack Obama changed America’s nuclear posture to say, because it used to say we reserve the right to use a nuclear first strike against any country.

巴拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)改变了美国的核姿态这一说法，因为它过去常说我们保留对任何国家首先使用核打击的权利。

1:33:48 He changed that to say, “No, we promise not to use a nuclear first strike against any non-nuclear weapon state except maybe Iran.” That’s true.

他将其改为：“不，我们承诺不会对任何无核武器国家使用核打击，也许除了伊朗。”这是真的。

In fact, that was the threat.

事实上，这就是威胁。

I think it’s really important.

我认为这非常重要。

1:34:48 I agree with that.

我同意这一点。

I’m just agreeing with you so you don’t have to stop me.

我只是同意你的观点，所以你不必阻止我。

But I’m agreeing with you.

但我同意你的观点。

I know, but I’m agreeing with you so it’s all right.

我知道，但我同意你的观点，所以没关系。

1:34:52 Netanyahu told Jeffrey Goldberg that he was not concerned about a first strike, that his only concern was that talented young Israelis would move to Miami, that there would be a brain drain.

内塔尼亚胡告诉杰弗里·戈德堡，他并不担心第一次打击，他唯一担心的是有才华的年轻以色列人会搬到迈阿密，从而导致人才流失。

That was his words, a brain drain from Israel.

这是他的话，以色列的人才外流。

That also then Hezbollah, as this is what he put it, and I agree with this, that conventional forces would have a bit more freedom of action in the region if Iran was sitting on an A-bomb.

真主党也是如此，正如他所说的那样，我同意这一点，即如果伊朗拥有原子弹，常规部队将在该地区拥有更多的行动自由。

Neither of them said that there was a threat of an offensive first strike against Israel.

他们两人都没有表示存在对以色列发动先发制人攻击的威胁。

I would point out, and I’m skipping ahead to Trump, but I’m skipping back here again in a second because I got more things to refute.

我想指出的是，我会跳到特朗普，但我稍后会再次跳回到这里，因为我还有更多东西要反驳。

But Trump just said the other day when he announced American airstrikes there that this has neutralized a threat to Israel.

但特朗普前几天宣布美国对那里进行空袭时表示，这已经消除了对以色列的威胁。

He did not even pretend that it was a threat to the United States that he had ended in doing so.

他甚至没有假装他这样做的结果是对美国的威胁。

Actually, he said exactly that.

事实上，他确实是这么说的。

Well, actually you can Google the state [inaudible 01:35:47].

好吧，实际上您可以通过 Google 搜索该州 [听不清 01:35:47]。

He actually said, president Trump has said that an Iranian nuclear weapon is a threat to the United States.

他实际上说，特朗普总统已经说过，伊朗核武器对美国构成威胁。

1:35:47 [inaudible 01:35:53].

[听不清 01:35:53]。

He said that over and over again.

他一遍又一遍地这么说。

Not in the state [inaudible 01:35:53].

不在状态 [听不清 01:35:53]。

1:35:53 He announced his great victory in bombing, which is what I just said, right?

他宣布了轰炸的伟大胜利，这就是我刚才所说的，对吗？

President Trump sends out 20 Truth posts a day.

特朗普总统每天发布 20 个真相帖子。

1:35:57 Let’s look at the many, many, many things that he said.

让我们看看他说了很多很多很多的话。

Then we have this whole thing about how I always believe Hezbollah, and I always believe the Ayatollah, when in fact, I did not quote the Ayatollah and I did not quote Hezbollah on anything.

然后我们就知道我如何始终相信真主党，我始终相信阿亚图拉，而事实上，我没有引用阿亚图拉的话，我也没有在任何事情上引用真主党的话。

1:36:03 I did quote Osama bin Laden taking responsibility for the Khobar Towers attack, which he shared that with Abdul Bari Atwan.

我确实引用了奥萨马·本·拉登对胡拜尔塔袭击负责的说法，他与阿卜杜勒·巴里·阿特万分享了这一点。

Anyone can read it.

任何人都可以阅读。

He agrees with Michael Scheuer, the former chief of the CIA’s Bin Laden unit, who also said that it was a hoax, that it was Iranian-backed Saudi Hezbollah that did that attack.

他同意中央情报局本·拉登部门前负责人迈克尔·舒尔的观点，他也表示这是一个骗局，是伊朗支持的沙特真主党发动了这次袭击。

Again, who did they attack?

再说一遍，他们袭击了谁？

They killed 19 American airmen, which was the number one complaint of al-Qaeda against the United States that we had air forces and Army stationed in Saudi Arabia in order to bomb and blockade Iraq, which again, and this was the thing that you had asked about before, was part of the dual containment policy in the 1990s.

他们杀死了 19 名美国飞行员，这是基地组织对美国的第一大抱怨，即我们在沙特阿拉伯驻扎空军和陆军，以便轰炸和封锁伊拉克，这也是你之前问过的，是 20 世纪 90 年代双重遏制政策的一部分。

Scott, you’re saying-

斯科特，你是说——

Goddamn, man.

该死的，伙计。

No, wait a second.

不，等一下。

All right.

好的。

Let Scott talk.

让斯科特谈谈。

The fact is you’re sitting here saying that I trust them all so much.

事实上，你坐在这里说我非常信任他们所有人。

1:36:57 Well, what do you think, Lex, what do you think Ronald Reagan meant by trust but verify?

好吧，你觉得怎么样，莱克斯，你认为罗纳德·里根所说的“信任”和“验证”是什么意思？

He meant don’t trust but be polite.

他的意思是不要信任，但要有礼貌。

That’s what he meant.

这就是他的意思。

Verify means we know with sensors and cameras and inspections what’s going on.

验证意味着我们通过传感器、摄像头和检查了解正在发生的情况。

No one can find a quote that I said here about how we can trust the Ayatollah because he promised this or that or the other thing.

没有人能找到我在这里所说的关于我们如何信任阿亚图拉的一句话，因为他承诺了这个或那个或其他事情。

I didn’t say that.

我没这么说。

What I’m talking about is the process.

我说的是过程。

They sign agreements and then we have inspectors to verify their claims.

他们签署协议，然后我们派检查员核实他们的说法。

As anyone can search at IAEA.org, they have continued to verify the non-diversion of nuclear material in Iran to any military or other special purpose.

正如任何人都可以在 IAEA.org 上搜索到的那样，他们正在继续核实伊朗的核材料没有被转用于任何军事或其他特殊目的。

The IAEA has now said that they actually can no longer do this before this war started.

国际原子能机构现在表示，在这场战争开始之前他们实际上不能再这样做了。

Because America withdrew from the-

因为美国退出了——

I mean, at the end of the day, let’s just be factually accurate.

我的意思是，归根结底，我们还是要实事求是。

1:37:46 The fact of the matter is anybody who knows anything about nuclear weapons program knows that we do not have 100% certainty on anything.

事实上，任何了解核武器计划的人都知道，我们对任何事情都没有 100% 的确定性。

I mean, Scott is making claims here that Mossad is fabricating the CIA is fabricating, everybody’s fabricating, but he’s also assuming that we have 100% certainty about what Iran is doing inside a country more than two and a half times the size of Texas.

我的意思是，斯科特在这里声称摩萨德正在捏造，中央情报局正在捏造，每个人都在捏造，但他也假设我们对伊朗在一个面积是德克萨斯州两倍半以上的国家内所做的事情有100%的确定性。

[inaudible 01:38:23] refuted that an hour ago.

[听不清 01:38:23] 一小时前驳斥了这一点。

1:38:23 You can rewind it.

你可以倒回它。

Anyone can refute it, but the fact of matter is they did it.

任何人都可以反驳，但事实是他们做到了。

1:38:24 It’s there.

它就在那里。

We know the facilities are there.

我们知道那里有设施。

1:38:26 By the way, you keep saying that I just say lies, lies, lies.

顺便说一句，你一直说我只是说谎、谎言、谎言。

But I have explained exactly what I meant.

但我已经准确地解释了我的意思。

I’ve cited my sources and I haven’t just sat here and said, “Uh huh, that’s a lie,” because I don’t like it.

我引用了我的消息来源，我并没有只是坐在这里说，“呃，这是一个谎言，”因为我不喜欢它。

I sat here and explained to you exactly how I know who was building those EFP bombs in Iraq, exactly how I know what the IAEA said about the state of inspections here, or what Robert Kelly told the Christian Science Monitor about Parchin and the rest and on and on and on.

我坐在这里，向你们准确地解释了我如何知道谁在伊拉克制造了这些 EFP 炸弹，我如何知道国际原子能机构对这里的检查状况有何评价，或者罗伯特·凯利如何向《基督教科学箴言报》讲述了关于帕尔钦等人的事情，等等。

I don’t sit here like I’m just saying, “Well, that’s not true because I like it,” when in fact I’m explaining exactly why your claims are not true, which they’re not.

我不会坐在这里，就像我只是说，“好吧，这不是真的，因为我喜欢它”，而事实上，我正在准确解释为什么你的说法不是真的，而事实并非如此。

Just like saying that I said I trust Hezbollah when anyone can rewind that and break their finger trying to find the part where I said that because I never did.

就像我说我相信真主党一样，任何人都可以倒带并打破他们的手指试图找到我说的那部分，因为我从来没有这样做过。

But Scott, this is the constant theme in your analysis.

但是斯科特，这是你分析中不变的主题。

1:40:57 Again, want to look at it, maybe steel man it, maybe challenge it, but the constant theme is the United States and Israel and the West, we constantly aggress against North Korea, against Iran, against Russia, against these countries, and they respond to us.

再说一遍，想看看它，也许是钢铁侠它，也许是挑战它，但不变的主题是美国、以色列和西方，我们不断侵略朝鲜、伊朗、俄罗斯、这些国家，而他们回应我们。

They respond to us in ways that they build nuclear weapons programs that are peaceful, but we force them to develop nuclear weapons.

他们对我们的回应是，他们建立和平的核武器计划，但我们却强迫他们发展核武器。

They don’t actually mean to kill us.

他们实际上并不是想杀我们。

Look, it’s not right that I’m saying everything anyone does-

听着，我说任何人所做的一切都是不对的——

Can I finish?

我可以完成吗？

No.

不。

[inaudible 01:41:38].

[听不清 01:41:38]。

You’re saying that everything I say is that everyone anyone else does is the reaction, but that’s not true.

你是说我所说的一切都是其他人所做的反应，但事实并非如此。

1:41:38 The subject here is what has America done to make things worse rather than better?

这里的主题是美国做了什么让事情变得更糟而不是更好？

That’s not the topic here.

这不是这里的主题。

I’m citing provocations.

我指的是挑衅。

1:41:49 That doesn’t mean I’m saying that everything that happens in the world is only an equal and opposite reaction to an American provocation, and you can’t find me saying that.

这并不意味着我说世界上发生的一切只是对美国挑衅的同等和相反的反应，你找不到我这么说。

You can only somehow try to paraphrase me claiming that somehow or something like that.

你只能以某种方式尝试解释我声称的某种方式或类似的东西。

But that’s what’s at issue is as I said, for example, there’s the Reuters story that says that after Israel did the sabotage, which they bragged about at Natanz in April of ’21, that was when they started enriching up to 60%.

但这就是问题所在，正如我所说，例如，路透社的报道称，以色列在 21 年 4 月在纳坦兹吹嘘的破坏活动之后，他们开始将浓缩度提高到 60%。

now I’m saying that, and I’m just denying the agency of the Iranians or anything except that, no, I’m not.

现在我这么说，我只是否认伊朗人的代理权或其他任何东西，不，我不是。

I’m just citing the Reuters news agency saying that this proactive action by Israel caused a negative reaction by your own lights, a very negative reaction in their beginning to again enrich up to 60% uranium.

我只是援引路透社的说法，以色列的这一主动行动引起了你们自己的负面反应，这是他们开始再次浓缩高达60%铀的非常负面的反应。

He did try.

他确实尝试过。

The US government has made numerous mistakes in many of these countries.

美国政府在其中许多国家犯下了无数错误。

If this podcast was all about the American government and the mistakes that’s made, then we’d spend four hours on it.

如果这个播客都是关于美国政府及其所犯错误的，那么我们会花四个小时。

It’s a huge [inaudible 01:43:06].

这是一个巨大的[听不清 01:43:06]。

Can we please-

我们可以吗-

Get to today.

到今天为止。

…

……

1:43:10 use everything we just talked about and talk about today, what is maybe Mark, can you lay out what is the best case and the worst case in Scotland?

使用我们刚才讨论和今天讨论的所有内容，也许马克是什么，你能列出苏格兰最好的情况和最坏的情况是什么吗？

Lay out the best case and the worst case that can happen now.

列出现在可能发生的最好情况和最坏情况。

Lex, I think the best case, and something I’ve advocated for, I’ve been working on this for 22 years, is that the Iranians return to negotiations at Oman, sit down with the United States and conclude an agreement that peacefully and permanently and fully dismantles their nuclear program.

莱克斯，我认为最好的情况是，伊朗人重返阿曼谈判，与美国坐下来，达成一项和平、永久、全面废除其核计划的协议，这也是我在这方面工作了 22 年所倡导的。

1:43:22 They agree to that, which means they shut down any remaining facilities.

他们同意这一点，这意味着他们关闭了所有剩余的设施。

They give up all the remaining centrifuges and enriched material that they could use to develop nuclear weapons.

他们放弃了所有剩余的离心机和可用于开发核武器的浓缩材料。

They let the IAEA in in order to supervise this.

他们让国际原子能机构介入以监督此事。

They actually commit to not rebuilding this nuclear program.

他们实际上承诺不重建这个核计划。

We commit, as we’ve done with 23 other countries, to helping them provide civilian nuclear energy.

正如我们对其他 23 个国家所做的那样，我们承诺帮助他们提供民用核能。

Because it seems to me a little fanciful that Khamenei would build a civilian nuclear program under 80 meters of concrete surrounded by rock and take all the risks he’s taken.

因为在我看来，哈梅内伊会在 80 米高、周围有岩石的混凝土下建造一个民用核计划，并承担他所承担的所有风险，这似乎有点异想天开。

By the way, he faces a risk to his regime, spent a half a trillion dollars to do this when it makes no commercial sense.

顺便说一句，他的政权面临着风险，在没有商业意义的情况下花费了五万亿美元来做这件事。

What can Trump do to help make that happen?

特朗普可以做些什么来帮助实现这一目标？

I think what he can do is he can say to the Iranians, “Look, I made you that offer last time.

我认为他能做的就是对伊朗人说：“听着，我上次向你们提出了这个提议。

1:44:59 You rejected it.

你拒绝了。

Now that offer’s no longer on the table because that offer gave you enrichment.

现在这个提议不再摆在桌面上，因为这个提议让你充实了。

Now temporarily, but I now see the game that you would’ve played when I left office, to turn that enrichment capability into nuclear weapons.

现在是暂时的，但我现在看到了我卸任时你们会玩的游戏，将浓缩能力转化为核武器。

That deal’s off the table, but here’s the deal that’s on the table.

该交易尚未讨论，但这是正在讨论中的交易。

It’s a one-page deal.

这是一页纸的交易。

You give up your nuclear capabilities, we help you build civilian nuclear energy.” I think that’s best case.

你放弃核能力，我们帮助你建设民用核能。”我认为这是最好的情况。

Can I just even dig in further on the worst case?

我可以进一步研究最坏的情况吗？

1:47:41 Do you think it’s possible to have where US gets pulled into a feet on the ground full-on war with Iran?

您认为美国有可能陷入与伊朗的全面战争吗？

I think one must never dismiss possibilities because as I said, you’ve got to plan against worst case options, and I think-

我认为人们绝不能忽视可能性，因为正如我所说，你必须针对最坏情况的选择做好计划，而且我认为——

That’s what the Israel lobby has in store for you guys.

这就是以色列游说团体为你们准备的。

1:48:00 American lives mean nothing to the Israel-firsters.

对于以色列优先者来说，美国人的生命毫无意义。

They don’t care that Israel motivated September 11th and killed 3,000 of our guys.

他们不在乎以色列在 9 月 11 日煽动并杀害了我们的 3,000 人。

I was at the airport yesterday, had a big American flag with all the red and white stripes made out of the names of the dead of September 11th who were killed by people motivated by Israel’s crimes in Palestine and in Lebanon and enforcing Bill Clinton’s dual containment policy from Saudi Arabia.

昨天我在机场，看到一面巨大的美国国旗，上面的所有红白条纹都是由 9 月 11 日死者的名字制成的，这些死者是被以色列在巴勒斯坦和黎巴嫩犯下的罪行以及在沙特阿拉伯执行比尔·克林顿的双重遏制政策驱使的人杀害的。

They don’t care about that.

他们不在乎这个。

They don’t care about the 4,500 Americans who died in Iraq War Two or the million something people who died in Iraq War Two, the half a million in Syria as long as the Shiite Crescent is somehow is limited.

他们不在乎在第二次世界大战中丧生的 4,500 名美国人，在第二次世界大战中丧生的 100 万人，在叙利亚的 50 万人，只要什叶派新月区在某种程度上是有限的。

They’ll even celebrate openly.

他们甚至会公开庆祝。

I wish you’d listened and not put words in my mouth.

我希望你能听我说，而不是把话塞到我嘴里。

I heard what he said.

我听到了他说的话。

1:49:47 I forced him kind of to say what the worst case possibility of a full-on invasion as a thought experiment, and you can let him finish that as opposed to making the accusations.

作为一个思想实验，我强迫他说出全面入侵的最坏情况的可能性是什么，你可以让他完成这个任务，而不是提出指控。

Let’s just minimize both ways accusations, please.

请让我们尽量减少双向指责。

Just talk about the ideas.

简单谈谈想法吧。

That’s the most charitable interpretation of those ideas.

这是对这些想法最仁慈的解释。

I’m from the United States of America, unlike him, and I care about the future of this country, unlike him, who’s here to serve a foreign power and make their case at our expense.

与他不同，我来自美利坚合众国，我关心这个国家的未来，与他不同，他来这里是为了服务外国势力，并以牺牲我们的利益为代价来争取他们的利益。

Scott, and next you’re going to say that I’m un-American.

斯科特，接下来你会说我不是美国人。

Because an immigrant too.

因为也是移民。

You’re just hosting the show.

你只是主持节目。

1:50:21 I don’t know.

我不知道。

It seems like you’re trying to be fair.

看起来你正在努力做到公平。

No, it’s not about fair.

不，这与公平无关。

He has an agenda.

他有一个议程。

Stop.

停止。

1:50:28 Stop.

停止。

He’s from the FDD.

他来自FDD。

Stop.

停止。

1:50:29 It’s not about being fair.

这与公平无关。

The implication here is somebody who’s un-American because where they’re from.

这里的含义是，有些人因为来自哪里而不是美国人。

I didn’t say anyone who’s not from here.

我没有说任何不是这里人的人。

1:50:36 I’m talking about him.

我正在谈论他。

I think that’s a really deeply disrespectful accusation.

我认为这是一个非常不尊重的指控。

Can I ask you, does it bother you that when Naftali Bennett bombed a UN shelter full of 106 women and children in Qana, Lebanon in 1996, that that’s what motivated Mohamed Atta and Ramzi bin al-Shibh to join Al-Qaeda and attack our towers?

我能否问您，当纳夫塔利·贝内特 (Naftali Bennett) 1996 年在黎巴嫩卡纳 (Qana) 轰炸了一个载有 106 名妇女和儿童的联合国避难所时，穆罕默德·阿塔 (Mohamed Atta) 和拉姆齐·本·希卜 (Ramzi bin al-Shibh) 加入基地组织并袭击了我们的塔楼，您是否对此感到困扰？

Scott, you know what bothers me?

斯科特，你知道什么让我烦恼吗？

1:51:00 I came to this country 22 years ago.

我22年前来到这个国家。

I became a proud US citizen 10 years ago.

十年前，我成为一名自豪的美国公民。

I’m proud to be an American and accusing me or Lex or any immigrants to this country of not being un-American is deeply offensive.

我为自己是一名美国人而感到自豪，指责我或莱克斯或这个国家的任何移民不是非美国人是非常无礼的。

Let me answer Lex’s question.

让我回答莱克斯的问题。

Lex, let’s get back to your question because I think it’s an important question.

Lex，让我们回到你的问题，因为我认为这是一个重要的问题。

What are the chain of events that could lead 500,000 mechanized US troops to have to invade Iran, which would be a disaster?

哪些连环事件可能导致50万美军机械化部队不得不入侵伊朗，这将是一场灾难？

That’s something we never want to see again.

这是我们永远不想再看到的事情。

That’s one of the lessons of Iraq.

这是伊拉克的教训之一。

Can’t the IDF handle it?

以色列国防军应付不了吗？

Can I just finish just who can handle it, who cannot handle it?

我可以只说谁能处理，谁不能处理吗？

1:52:16 I think that it’s a potential scenario, which is why I don’t think anybody should be advocating for a US decapitation of the regime in Iran.

我认为这是一种潜在的情况，这就是为什么我认为任何人都不应该主张美国斩首伊朗政权。

I have long been on record of supporting the Iranian people, providing support to the Iranian people, to at one point take back their country and take back their flag.

我长期以来一直支持伊朗人民，为伊朗人民提供支持，以在某一时刻夺回他们的国家并夺回他们的旗帜。

It’s very much sort of Reagan’s strategy that Reagan ran in the Cold War of maximum pressure on the regime, maximum support for anti-Soviet dissidents.

这很像里根在冷战时期所采取的策略，即对政权施加最大压力，为反苏持不同政见者提供最大支持。

While by the way, he was negotiating arms control agreements for the Soviet Union in order to try to reduce the number of nuclear tipped ICBMs that both countries had pointed at each other.

顺便说一句，他正在为苏联谈判军备控制协议，以试图减少两国相互指责的核弹头洲际弹道导弹的数量。

I think the Reagan strategy of providing support to the people is a far better strategy for trying to get transition, leadership transition, government transition inside Iran.

我认为里根为人民提供支持的战略对于试图在伊朗内部实现过渡、领导层过渡和政府过渡来说是一个更好的战略。

But I think the scenario of decapitation strikes, killing Khamenei, taking out the entire government could potentially lead to that scenario.

但我认为斩首袭击、杀死哈梅内伊、推翻整个政府的情况可能会导致这种情况。

I think we have to be conscious of that.

我认为我们必须意识到这一点。

We have to guard against that.

我们必须警惕这种情况。

I think that’s important.

我认为这很重要。

Scott, what do you think is the best case and the worst case here?

斯科特，你认为最好的情况和最坏的情况是什么？

Well, the best case scenario is that we quit right now and that Trump figures out a way to reorder some paragraphs and get back in something like the JCPOA, which was also signed with the rest of the UN security council power.

好吧，最好的情况是我们现在就退出，特朗普想出一种方法来重新排列某些段落，并重新加入《联合全面行动计划》之类的内容，该协议也是与联合国安理会其他权力机构签署的。

Can I ask you like JCPOA is a pretty good approximation of what would be a good deal?

我能问一下，联合全面行动计划（JCPOA）是一个很好的近似协议吗？

Pretty good.

不错。

1:54:39 It could have been better, as I said at the beginning.

正如我一开始所说，它本来可以更好。

Trump could have gone in there and tried to negotiate a better result with the sunset provisions on some of those things.

特朗普本可以介入并尝试就其中一些问题与日落条款进行谈判以获得更好的结果。

But the concept that America is just going to insist on zero enrichment, zero nuclear program whatsoever when they have the unalienable “in the nonproliferation treaty to civilian nuclear material and a civilian program”, it’s a poison pill.

但是，当美国拥有不可剥夺的“民用核材料和民用核不扩散条约”时，美国就会坚持零浓缩、零核计划，这是一颗毒丸。

It’s meant to fail just like it was a poison pill meant to destroy the tox here, good enough to start a war.

它注定会失败，就像它是一颗毒丸，旨在摧毁这里的毒素，足以引发一场战争。

Again, as I quoted from earlier, he said on TV last week, “Well, America has to take out Fordo now because now they’re more likely to break out towards a nuke.” I think that’s exactly right.

正如我早些时候引用的那样，他上周在电视上说，“好吧，美国现在必须消灭福尔多，因为现在他们更有可能冲向核武器。”我认为这是完全正确的。

There still is, or there’s strong reason to be skeptical, including Israeli and American officials told the New York Times that they thought that the damage was quite incomplete.

仍然存在，或者有充分的理由持怀疑态度，包括以色列和美国官员告诉《纽约时报》，他们认为损害相当不完整。

The IAEA just came out recently just point of fact, sort of interesting.

国际原子能机构最近刚刚发布了事实，有点有趣。

1:55:34 We’ll see on the battle damage assessment, but they actually think the facility was destroyed and that the sensitive centrifuges were destroyed.

我们将看到战斗损失评估，但他们实际上认为设施被摧毁，敏感的离心机被摧毁。

Just interesting for the viewers.

只是对观众来说很有趣。

It may be premature.

这可能还为时过早。

All the uranium mines, and all the aluminum smelters so that they can’t make any more centrifuges.

所有的铀矿和所有的铝冶炼厂都不能再制造离心机了。

Interesting assessment.

有趣的评估。

They know how to make centrifuges.

他们知道如何制造离心机。

1:55:57 At this point, this is why government doesn’t work.

在这一点上，这就是政府不起作用的原因。

They make matters worse and create more work for themselves and make things worse and worse and worse.

他们让事情变得更糟，为自己创造更多的工作，让事情变得越来越糟。

We can make the same criticism about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine making matters worse for themselves and causing them to have to escalate even further.

我们可以对俄罗斯入侵乌克兰提出同样的批评，这会让事情变得更糟，并导致他们不得不进一步升级。

Can you go into the analysis of best case and worst case?

您能分析一下最好情况和最坏情况吗？

1:57:05 You laid out the best case.

你列出了最好的情况。

What’s the worst case would be feet on the ground?

最糟糕的情况是什么？

Worst case is this.

最坏的情况是这样的。

What was the best case?

最好的情况是什么？

1:57:12 I missed it.

我错过了。

The best case is a deal?

最好的情况是达成协议吗？

Yeah, that we quit now.

是的，我们现在就退出。

The deal.

这笔交易。

Basically, you guys agree on the best case.

基本上，你们都同意最好的情况。

We respect their right to a civilian nuclear program and try to negotiate, as I said, back into something like the JCPOA, which again had them exporting their entire stockpile of uranium out of the country.

正如我所说，我们尊重他们开展民用核计划的权利，并尝试通过谈判回到《联合全面行动计划》之类的协议，该协议再次要求他们将全部铀库存出口到国外。

[inaudible 01:57:31].

[听不清 01:57:31]。

He wants no nuclear program whatsoever.

他不希望有任何核计划。

No, no, that’s not what I said.

不，不，我不是这么说的。

1:57:33 That’s not what I said.

那不是我说的。

Be careful what I said.

小心我说的话。

Well, no enrichment capabilities [inaudible 01:57:38].

好吧，没有丰富能力 [听不清 01:57:38]。

[inaudible 01:57:38].

[听不清 01:57:38]。

[inaudible 01:57:38] entire dependence on other countries to supply their fuel needs.

[听不清 01:57:38] 完全依赖其他国家来满足其燃料需求。

Can you teach me the difference when we [inaudible 01:57:43]?

你能教我我们之间的区别吗 [听不清 01:57:43]？

Let me just step back from this because we agree on some and we disagree on a major issue.

让我退后一步，因为我们在一些问题上意见一致，但在一个重大问题上存在分歧。

1:57:42 Then if we both agree Iran deserves a civilian nuclear program-

那么如果我们都同意伊朗值得拥有民用核计划-

The point is the Ayatollah is never going to give in on enrichment.

关键是阿亚图拉永远不会在致富问题上让步。

Can I just-

我可以-

We know that.

我们知道这一点。

1:57:55 That’s a premise for our whole discussion here.

这是我们整个讨论的前提。

Therefore, what he’s saying is we’re going to have to keep escalating the war until the mission is accomplished.

因此，他的意思是我们必须不断升级战争，直到任务完成。

Not sure I said that.

不确定我是否这么说过。

1:58:03 Scott, I think it’s, again, important that the distinction here.

斯科特，我认为这里的区别很重要。

We both agree that Iran deserves a civilian nuclear program.

我们都同意伊朗应该有民用核计划。

23 countries have civilian nuclear programs and they don’t have enrichment and they don’t have reprocessing.

23 个国家有民用核计划，但没有浓缩，也没有后处理。

Where we differ is, I don’t think Iran should have the Iran standard.

我们的不同之处在于，我认为伊朗不应该有伊朗标准。

I think that Iran should agree to the gold standard that 23 US allies have agreed to.

我认为伊朗应该同意美国23个盟友已经同意的金本位制。

Have civilian nuclear program, but you don’t get to keep the key enrichment and reprocessing capabilities that you need to develop nuclear weapons.

拥有民用核计划，但无法保留开发核武器所需的关键浓缩和后处理能力。

Do you think that Bill Clinton should have just let the Chinese sell them the light water reactor that they wanted to back in the ’90s?

你认为比尔·克林顿应该让中国人把他们在 90 年代想要的轻水反应堆卖给他们吗？

America, of course, allowed Russia to sell them a heavy water reactor for the same purpose.

当然，美国允许俄罗斯出于同样的目的向他们出售一座重水反应堆。

1:58:40 But I agree with Scott that I think one of the ways out of this is, yes, whether it’s the Chinese or preferably as an American, I prefer the Americans actually sell reactors to the Iranians, a great nuclear industry in this country.

但我同意斯科特的观点，我认为解决这个问题的方法之一是，是的，无论是中国人还是最好是美国人，我更喜欢美国人实际上向伊朗人出售反应堆，这是这个国家一个伟大的核工业。

Let’s do that.

让我们这样做吧。

But if they can’t, the South Koreans can, the Russians can, the Chinese can.

但如果他们不能，韩国人可以，俄罗斯人可以，中国人可以。

I wouldn’t want to have significant Russian and Chinese influence in Iran, so better that it’d be a western country that does it.

我不希望俄罗斯和中国对伊朗产生重大影响，最好是西方国家这样做。

Nevertheless, provide those reactors.

尽管如此，还是提供那些反应堆。

They’re proliferation proof.

它们是扩散证明。

There’s no enrichment and no reprocessing.

没有浓缩，也没有再加工。

You buy your fuel rods from abroad, you put them in the reactors, you power the Iranian electrical grid, which is in terrible shape because the Ayatollah has spent a half a trillion dollars trying to build nuclear weapons.

你从国外购买燃料棒，将它们放入反应堆，为伊朗电网供电，而伊朗电网的状况很糟糕，因为阿亚图拉花费了五万亿美元试图制造核武器。

They’re not trying to provide electricity for these people.

他们并不是想为这些人提供电力。

Can I ask you, you were saying you supported the JCPOA, you were opposed to it.

请问一下，你说你支持全面协议，你说你反对。

No, no, I was opposed to JCPOA.

不，不，我反对联合全面行动计划。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

2:00:28 You were opposed to withdrawing from it?

你反对退出吗？

Yeah.

是的。

Don’t you think that Trump could have gone over there and negotiate to make it better?

你不认为特朗普可以去那里进行谈判以使情况变得更好吗？

2:00:30 Would you agree that it was a huge mistake to withdraw that because they were, as we agreed, shipping out all of their enriched uranium to only be brought back in a form that they could not use to make nukes.

你是否同意，撤回是一个巨大的错误，因为正如我们所同意的，他们将所有浓缩铀运出，只是以他们无法用来制造核武器的形式带回来。

The scientists had decided that if they kicked all the inspectors out and beat their chests and started making a nuke, it would take them a full year to have enough weapons grade uranium for a single gun type nuke under the JCPOA.

科学家们决定，如果他们把所有检查员赶出去，捶胸顿足，开始制造核武器，那么他们将需要一整年的时间才能在联合全面行动计划下获得足够的武器级铀来制造单枪型核武器。

Let me ask you a question.

让我问你一个问题。

Yeah.

是的。

Because you’re right.

因为你是对的。

2:00:59 I mean, I’m glad you’ve pointed out because I tried to take a nuanced position during the JCPOA debate, and I got hammered by the left and I got hammered by the right.

我的意思是，我很高兴你指出了这一点，因为我在联合全面行动计划辩论中试图采取微妙的立场，但我遭到了左翼的打击，也遭到了右翼的打击。

The left hammered me because I criticized the JCPOA because it’s fundamental flaw was twofold.

左派猛烈抨击我，因为我批评了《联合全面行动计划》，因为它有双重根本缺陷。

One, it gave Iran enrichment capability that would expand over time as the restrictions sunset it.

第一，它赋予伊朗浓缩能力，随着限制的解除，这种能力将随着时间的推移而扩大。

Number two, the sunsets were going to kick in and Iran would emerge with this industrial size program, which we would not be able to stop.

第二，日落即将到来，伊朗将出现这个工业规模的计划，我们将无法阻止它。

Now, the nuanced position, which I got hammered on by the right, was I said, “Go negotiate with the Europeans.

现在，我受到右翼猛烈抨击的微妙立场是，“去与欧洲人谈判。

Agree on a common transatlantic position to approach the Iranians and say, ‘Look, that deal that we did back in 2015, we think it’s flawed.

就跨大西洋的共同立场达成一致，与伊朗人接触并说，‘看，我们 2015 年达成的协议，我们认为它是有缺陷的。

We want to extend that deal.

我们希望延长该协议。

We want to get rid of the sunsets and we are going to negotiate a deal.'” Now, does that mean we have to give you more sanctions relief?

我们想要摆脱日落，我们将通过谈判达成协议。”现在，这是否意味着我们必须给予你们更多的制裁减免？

Yeah, probably.

是的，可能是。

The Iranians are not going to just agree without sanctions relief.

如果不解除制裁，伊朗人不会轻易同意。

But what I’m asking you is if say you were the national security advisor under the JCPOA where they’re still shipping all their enriched uranium out of the country and all that, which you would be advising him to not leave, in the negotiations to improve the deal, would you have been willing to accept some level of enrichment then as long as we have the restriction part where they’re shipping it all out of the country, or to you, enrichment at all is always a red line, essentially equivalent to them being 99% of the way to a nuclear weapon?

但我要问你的是，如果说你是《联合全面行动计划》下的国家安全顾问，他们仍在将所有浓缩铀运出该国以及所有这些，你会建议他在改善协议的谈判中不要离开，那么只要我们有限制部分，他们将所有浓缩铀全部运出该国，或者对你而言，浓缩始终是一条红线，本质上相当于他们99%的路都通往核武器？

Look, enrichment capability is a red line.

看，浓缩能力是一条红线。

2:02:53 It has to be a red line.

应该是一条红线。

Even though you know it’s protected by the NPT, the right to peace nuclear technology?

即使你知道和平核技术的权利受到《不扩散核武器条约》的保护？

2:02:58 They call it a loophole, but they have the right to enrich uranium.

他们称之为漏洞，但他们有权浓缩铀。

There’s different interpretations of everything, including agreements.

对一切事物都有不同的解释，包括协议。

2:03:05 There is a raging debate about whether the NPT actually gives you a right to enrich.

关于《不扩散核武器条约》是否真正赋予你致富的权利，存在着激烈的争论。

In fact, the Obama administration, even with the JCPOA, was not willing to recognize Iran’s right to enrich, but they were willing to recognize its de facto reality that they were enriching.

事实上，奥巴马政府即使有了联合全面行动计划，也不愿意承认伊朗的浓缩权，但他们愿意承认伊朗正在浓缩的事实。

Can you explain NPT?

你能解释一下《NPT》吗？

It’s the Non-Proliferation Treaty.

这是《不扩散条约》。

2:03:27 Iran is a member of it.

伊朗是其中的成员。

It’s supposed to promote peaceful civilian nuclear energy, and it’s supposed to prevent countries from developing nuclear weapons.

它应该促进和平民用核能，并且应该防止各国发展核武器。

I think that’s a basic summary of it.

我认为这就是它的基本总结。

It mandates that non-nuclear weapons states have a safeguards agreement with the IAEA and full of additional protocols and whatever, where they have the right to inspect.

它要求无核武器国家与国际原子能机构签订保障协议以及完整的附加议定书等，并有权进行检查。

Which Iran refused to sign, by the way.

顺便说一句，伊朗拒绝签署。

Well, no, they had an additional protocol that they were abiding, not even enriching at all while they were negotiating with the E-III.

好吧，不，他们在与 E-III 谈判时有一个他们遵守的附加协议，甚至根本没有丰富。

2:03:52 Then what the JCPOA really did was add a bunch of additional protocols and subsidiary arrangements and agreements.

那么联合全面行动计划真正做的就是增加了一堆附加协议和附属安排和协议。

Iran refused …

伊朗拒绝...

Had a bunch of additional protocols and subsidiary arrangements and agreements [inaudible 02:04:04].

有一堆附加协议和附属安排和协议 [听不清 02:04:04]。

Ironically refused to ratify the additional protocol.

具有讽刺意味的是拒绝批准附加议定书。

2:04:04 I just wanted just be clear on the facts.

我只是想澄清事实。

I mean, it’s really important.

我的意思是，这真的很重要。

Well, at which point in time did they refuse to ratify?

那么，他们在什么时候拒绝批准呢？

2:04:07 Because they did ratify the JCPOA, which was full of additional protocols and subsidiary arrangements and agreements they’re called.

因为他们确实批准了《联合全面行动计划》，其中充满了附加协议、附属安排和协议。

There’s an important additional protocol that Iran refused.

伊朗拒绝了一项重要的附加议定书。

Which one was that?

那是哪一个？

2:04:19 The one where they promised not to enrich at all, which they actually did abide by while they were negotiating with the E3 in the W.

他们承诺完全不致富，而他们在西部与 E3 谈判时确实遵守了这一承诺。

Bush years before they even started spinning centric engines in response.

布什甚至在他们开始旋转中心发动机作为回应之前几年。

The important point is that you asked me what I would advise the National Security Advisor of the United States, or if I was the National Security Advisor of the United States, which I guess I can’t be because I’m a foreigner, but the fact of the matter is-

重要的一点是，你问我会给美国国家安全顾问什么建议，或者如果我是美国国家安全顾问，我想我不可能，因为我是外国人，但事实是——

I think you could still be National Security Advisor.

我认为你仍然可以担任国家安全顾问。

2:04:39 Zbigniew Brzezinski sure was.

兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基确实是。

I think he was taking a shot back at the fact that you took a shot.

我认为他是在反击你开枪的事实。

You know what, Lex?

你知道吗，莱克斯？

2:04:46 I think that you probably would recognize that there are many people who lobby for Israel’s interests in the United States who clearly don’t care that much about what happens to the United States of America in it as a consequence because they care about Israel, which is a different country than America, right?

我想你可能会认识到，有很多人在美国游说以色列的利益，但他们显然不太关心美利坚合众国的后果，因为他们关心以色列，因为以色列是一个与美国不同的国家，对吗？

It’s not part of the 50 states.

它不属于 50 个州。

I think an American citizen cares primarily about America.

我认为美国公民首先关心的是美国。

2:05:05 That is a fundamental belief for me.

这是我的基本信念。

To make an accusation that they don’t requires a very large amount of proof for each individual.

要指控他们不这样做，不需要每个人提供大量证据。

I don’t care.

我不在乎。

Pretend that American and Israel’s interests are the same, requires a tremendous amount of cognitive dissonance by those who support Israel’s interests.

假装美国和以色列的利益是相同的，需要那些支持以色列利益的人产生巨大的认知失调。

He’s right.

他是对的。

2:05:28 They’re not all the same.

它们并不完全相同。

State sponsor of terror as though Iran has anything to do with anti-American terrorists.

恐怖主义的国家支持者，好像伊朗与反美恐怖分子有任何关系。

I don’t know who is the they that we’re talking about, but I believe American citizens care about America first.

我不知道我们正在谈论的他们是谁，但我相信美国公民首先关心美国。

2:05:35 They may discuss how their nations and the interests in the Middle East or in Europe and those interests might align with their own worldview, whatever.

他们可能会讨论他们的国家和中东或欧洲的利益以及这些利益如何与他们自己的世界观保持一致。

But when it comes, at the end of the day, if everybody starts a war with everybody else, they’re America first.

但当它到来时，归根结底，如果每个人都与其他人发动战争，那么他们就是美国优先。

I am America first.

我首先是美国。

If there’s a war that breaks out and we have to pick up guns, I’m fighting for America.

如果爆发战争，我们必须拿起枪，我会为美国而战。

I’ll take them on a case by case basis.

我会根据具体情况来对待它们。

Case is great.

案例很棒。

I know immigrants.

我了解移民。

2:06:07 I know immigrants who are absolutely super patriots who know American history and love and care about America more than their next door neighbors who are from here, but that ain’t universal.

我认识一些移民，他们绝对是超级爱国者，他们了解美国历史，比来自这里的隔壁邻居更热爱和关心美国，但这并不普遍。

Okay?

好的？

Sure.

当然。

2:06:19 Let’s talk about case by case then.

那我们就具体情况来谈吧。

That’s fine.

没关系。

Well, I think he’s clearly accusing me.

嗯，我认为他显然是在指责我。

I think a worse war with Iran.

我认为与伊朗的战争会更糟糕。

2:06:24 He was entertaining the possibility of putting ground troops in there, [inaudible 02:06:29] catastrophe for this country.

他正在考虑在那里部署地面部队的可能性，[听不清 02:06:29] 这对这个国家来说是一场灾难。

Don’t take personal shots.

请勿拍摄个人照片。

2:06:29 Don’t take personal shots.

请勿拍摄个人照片。

Either of you.

你们中的任何一个。

You’ve taken personal shots.

您拍摄了个人照片。

Let’s not do it.

我们不要这样做。

You guys are just having fun and I’m having fun.

你们只是玩得很​​开心，我也很开心。

Just on the idea here.

只是这里的想法。

Let me respond.

让我回应一下。

He said that there, there’s a threat from the missiles.

他说那里存在来自导弹的威胁。

2:06:37 There’s a threat from Iranian missiles to America’s bases in the Middle East.

伊朗导弹对美国在中东的基地构成威胁。

Yeah.

是的。

Because of Israel and because of this war, the first time Iran ever fired missiles at an American base over there was in response to Trump bombing them.

由于以色列和这场战争，伊朗第一次向那里的美国基地发射导弹是为了回应特朗普轰炸他们。

Never Iran’s fault.

从来都不是伊朗的错。

2:06:53 It’s never Iran’s fault.

这从来都不是伊朗的错。

Is that what everybody thinks?

大家都是这么想的吗？

Never his [inaudible 02:06:57] fault.

从来不是他的[听不清 02:06:57] 的错。

It was Iran who started this?

这是伊朗发起的？

Never Iran’s fault.

从来都不是伊朗的错。

2:06:58 Let’s bring it back, Scott.

让我们把它带回来，斯科特。

What a joke.

真是个笑话。

Hold on a second.

等一下。

Scott.

斯科特.

2:07:01 It’s a remarkable management.

这是一个了不起的管理。

I want to reiterate this-

我想重申这一点——

Trump bombed Ordo and then Iran shot missiles at Qatar and Iraq.

特朗普轰炸了鄂尔多，然后伊朗向卡塔尔和伊拉克发射了导弹。

Scott, you’re a patriotic American.

斯科特，你是一个爱国的美国人。

2:07:08 God bless you.

上帝保佑你。

God bless the United States.

上帝保佑美国。

Thank you for allowing me to come to this country and become an American.

感谢您让我来到这个国家并成为一名美国人。

It’s a great country and as a patriotic American, I assume that the United States government and the United States intelligence community and the United States military has America’s best interest at heart.

这是一个伟大的国家，作为一个爱国的美国人，我认为美国政府、美国情报界和美国军方都把美国的最大利益放在心上。

However, we have learned from the history, and Scott’s done a very good job of detailing this during the Iraq war, that the United States gets it wrong.

然而，我们从历史中吸取教训，而且斯科特在伊拉克战争期间很好地详细说明了这一点，美国的做法是错误的。

I don’t think the United States lied us into war, but the United States got it wrong.

我不认为美国撒谎让我们陷入战争，但美国错了。

So I think Scott’s right.

所以我认为斯科特是对的。

We must make sure that we learn the lessons of Iraq, but not overlearn the lessons of Iraq.

我们必须确保我们吸取伊拉克的教训，但不要过度吸取伊拉克的教训。

I would also say this.

我也想说这个。

There are many lobby organizations in the United States.

美国有很多游说组织。

There’s the China lobby, there’s the oil lobby, there’s the pharmaceutical lobby, there’s the Qatar lobby.

有中国游说团，有石油游说团，有制药游说团，还有卡塔尔游说团。

They don’t have any 90% enriched uranium.

他们没有任何 90% 的浓缩铀。

2:10:52 He just means hypothetically, if they did have some, to be clear.

他只是假设，如果他们确实有的话，需要澄清一下。

You know the 60%, that’s 99% of the way to 90% enriched uranium.

你知道 60%，即 99%，就是 90% 浓缩铀的方法。

2:10:58 By the way, you can make a crude nuclear device with 60% enriched uranium.

顺便说一下，你可以用60%的浓缩铀制造一个粗制核装置。

I just want to put that on the record, but he lost that key conversion facility that turns 90% enriched uranium or even 60% enriched uranium into uranium metal.

我只是想把这一点记录下来，但他失去了将 90% 浓缩铀甚至 60% 浓缩铀转化为铀金属的关键转化设施。

You need uranium metal to fashion a crude nuclear device or a warhead.

您需要铀金属来制造原始核装置或弹头。

That’s been destroyed.

那已经被毁掉了。

And when I was coming in this morning, I just checked, I thought it was interesting and a whole lot of discussion about the fact that about 12 or 16 trucks showed up at Fordo in the days before the U.S strikes and moved something out of Fordo.

今天早上我来的时候，我刚刚查了一下，我认为这很有趣，并且有很多关于这样一个事实的讨论：在美国罢工之前的几天里，大约有 12 或 16 辆卡车出现在福尔多，并将一些东西运出了福尔多。

Well, according to reports, just this morning, we’ll see if they’re verified.

嗯，据报道，就在今天早上，我们将看看它们是否得到验证。

I don’t trust single sourcing.

我不相信单一来源。

I don’t trust what some reporter just says in their stories because reporters got it wrong over and over again, especially all the ones who accuse President Trump have been a Russian agent.

我不相信某些记者在报道中所说的话，因为记者们一次又一次地犯错，尤其是那些指责特朗普总统是俄罗斯特工的人。

Who thinks that if they break out and try to start making nukes now that any hawks supporting this war will take responsibility for driving them to it.

谁会想到，如果他们突然爆发并试图开始制造核武器，那么任何支持这场战争的鹰派都会承担驱使他们走向战争的责任。

So the suggestion you’re making is we’re actually driving as opposed to doing the opposite, we’re actually driving them to develop nuclear weapons.

所以你提出的建议是，我们实际上是在推动而不是相反，我们实际上是在推动他们发展核武器。

Of course.

当然。

2:14:31 That’s right.

这是正确的。

Can you make the case of that?

你能证明这一点吗？

Yeah.

是的。

2:14:32 Previously he said, “Let’s take the Ayatollah at his word that he only wants a civilian electricity program.” Well, let’s not take him at his word.

此前他曾表示，“让我们相信阿亚图拉的话，他只想要民用电力项目。”好吧，我们不要相信他的话。

Again, I never said in this conversation, “Trust the Ayatollah.” He did.

再说一次，我在这次谈话中从未说过“相信阿亚图拉”。他做到了。

Now he’s kind of-,

现在他有点-，

Yeah, but you said that the Ayatollah doesn’t want nuclear a weapons programs.

是的，但你说过阿亚图拉不想要核武器计划。

2:14:47 Scott, you were very clear about that.

斯科特，你说得很清楚。

What I said-

我说的是——

Ayatollah never wanted a nuclear weapons program.

阿亚图拉从来不想要核武器计划。

2:14:53 Are you going back on that now?

你现在要回去吗？

Jesus Christ.

耶稣基督。

2:14:55 What I was very clear about from my very first statement when we sat down was that the Ayatollah was building himself a latent nuclear deterrent, putting Iran as what they call a threshold nuclear weapons state just like Brazil and Germany and Japan, so that everyone knows they have mastered the fuel cycle, they could enrich uranium up to 90%, don’t make me do it.

当我们坐下来时，我的第一个发言中我就非常清楚地知道，阿亚图拉正在为自己建立一个潜在的核威慑力量，将伊朗视为他们所谓的核武器门槛国家，就像巴西、德国和日本一样，这样每个人都知道他们已经掌握了燃料循环，他们可以将铀浓缩到90%，别让我这么做。

That was his position.

这就是他的立场。

None of those countries have a nuclear weapons program.

这些国家都没有核武器计划。

None of them.

没有一个。

Did you ever hear me say anything about believing the Ayatollah saying he only wanted an electricity program?

你有没有听过我说过相信阿亚图拉说他只想要一个电力项目？

2:15:18 This is why enrichment is a red line.

这就是为什么浓缩是一条红线。

It’s because if all the enrichment is done overseas somewhere, then it’s not a latent nuclear deterrent at all.

这是因为，如果所有浓缩活动都在海外某个地方进行，那么它根本就不是潜在的核威慑力量。

So it’s a red line for you, as well as for me, we agree, Scott.

所以这对你和我来说都是一条红线，我们同意，斯科特。

I’m saying it’s a red line for the Ayatollah that he’s clearly not going to give in on, and it’s a poison pill by the Israelis in the west.

我是说，这是阿亚图拉的红线，他显然不会屈服，也是西方以色列人的毒丸。

2:15:40 They know he’s never going to give up enrichment a hundred percent because that’s the whole point of it.

他们知道他永远不会百分百放弃丰富，因为这就是重点。

So it’s just disingenuous to say, “Oh, let’s believe him that he wants an electricity program.” He’s not saying that.

因此，说“哦，让我们相信他想要一个电力项目”是不诚实的。他不是这么说的。

I don’t even think that’s his official position.

我什至不认为这是他的官方立场。

Or if it is, it’s with a strong implication as everyone understands that it’s a latent nuclear weapons capability and a potential actual nuclear weapons capability.

或者，如果是的话，那就具有强烈的含义，因为每个人都明白这是一种潜在的核武器能力和潜在的实际核武器能力。

To you, a deal will have to include enrichment.

对你来说，交易必须包括致富。

Yes.

是的。

That is a red line.

那是一条红线。

2:16:16 He will move off.

他会离开。

Yes.

是的。

2:16:17 And then the thing is too, just like I was saying before, if Trump had come in 2017 and said, “Screw this, I hate this deal.” And then got on a plane and flown straight to Tehran and said, or sent his guys and said, “Now listen here Ayatollah, I want to fix this deal up better.” I think that he really could have, and I already said, I don’t know the details, but I believe Mark when he says that the Europeans were being intransigent on that.

然后事情也是如此，就像我之前说的，如果特朗普在 2017 年上任并说：“管他的，我讨厌这笔交易。”然后坐上飞机，直飞德黑兰，说，或者派他的人说，“现在听着，阿亚图拉，我想更好地解决这笔交易。”我认为他确实可以这样做，我已经说过，我不知道细节，但我相信马克，当他说欧洲人对此毫不妥协时。

And again, I criticized the CIA and FBI for framing Trump for treason, for preventing him from being able to work with the Russians to see if maybe they could put pressure on the Ayatollah to deal with him.

我再次批评中央情报局和联邦调查局指责特朗普犯有叛国罪，阻止他与俄罗斯人合作，看看他们是否可以向阿亚图拉施加压力来对付他。

Can I just say technically, just I think, again, important for your listeners trying understand, under the JCPOA, Iran is allowed to keep a stockpile of a maximum of 300 kilograms, as I remember, of 3.67% enriched material.

我可以从技术上说吗，我想，再次，对于试图理解的听众来说很重要，根据 JCPOA，伊朗被允许保留最多 300 公斤的库存，据我所知，是 3.67% 的浓缩材料。

2:17:39 They’re allowed to continue to enrich as long as if they go over the 300 kilogram, they have to continue to send that out to Russian, to Russia to blend down.

他们被允许继续浓缩，只要超过300公斤，他们就必须继续把它送到俄罗斯，送到俄罗斯进行混合。

And so they kept the enrichment capability, the ability to enrich.

所以他们保留了丰富的能力，丰富的能力。

They did keep a stockpile.

他们确实保留了库存。

Scott’s right.

斯科特是对的。

They’re not allowed in those early years to go under 3.67%.

早些年不允许他们的利率低于 3.67%。

They would be allowed to go to 20% and 60% and 90% as the restrictions sunsetted, but they were able to keep all of those key capabilities.

随着限制的取消，他们将被允许达到 20%、60% 和 90%，但他们能够保留所有这些关键能力。

So I just want to clarify just technically what the JCPOA actually said and what it didn’t say.

所以我只想从技术上澄清《联合全面行动计划》实际上说了些什么，没有说了什么。

Yeah.

是的。

2:18:30 Can you comment on the so-called Operation Midnight Hammer?

您能否对所谓的“午夜之锤行动”发表评论？

Now that we can look back at it, what parts were successful, what parts were a mistake?

现在我们可以回顾一下，哪些部分是成功的，哪些部分是错误的？

Was the whole operation a mistake that accelerates the Iran nuclear program or the incentives for it?

整个行动是加速伊朗核计划的错误还是其诱因？

Or is there some components that actually is a disincentive for Iran to develop the program?

或者是否有一些因素实际上阻碍了伊朗开发该计划？

And then maybe you can comment on the same.

然后也许你可以对此发表评论。

It’d be nice just to get comments on each.

如果能得到对每个问题的评论就太好了。

Well, I think we really don’t know, right?

好吧，我想我们真的不知道，对吧？

2:18:56 There’s some initial battle assessments and arguments and all that about just how much was destroyed, and we don’t know exactly what their reaction is going to be.

有一些初步的战斗评估和争论以及所有关于到底有多少被摧毁的事情，我们不知道他们到底会做出什么反应。

There were reports of them saying, “Hey, we’re already starting up a new facility somewhere else.” There were reports where they said, “Hey, a lot of our centrifuges survived and we’re going to start spinning them up right now,” and this kind of thing.

有报道称，他们说：“嘿，我们已经在其他地方开设了一个新设施。”有报道称，“嘿，我们的很多离心机都幸存下来，我们现在就要开始旋转它们”，诸如此类的事情。

The potential is there.

潜力就在那里。

I don’t know what the Ayatollah is going to do.

我不知道阿亚图拉要做什么。

And I think this goes to the larger argument about the apocalyptic threat of the Ayatollah, which Mark has not made, but which Israel hawks often do that these guys just can’t wait to get into a war and all this.

我认为这涉及到关于阿亚图拉的世界末日威胁的更大争论，马克没有提出这一点，但以色列鹰派经常这样做，这些人迫不及待地想卷入战争和所有这一切。

In fact, if you look at Iran-

事实上，如果你看看伊朗——

Well, they’re in a war, but the argument I make is they’re not going to use a nuclear weapon.

好吧，他们正在打仗，但我的论点是他们不会使用核武器。

Jesus, man, you stop me, you interrupt me every time I try to say anything.

天哪，伙计，你阻止了我，每次我想说些什么时你就打断我。

But Scott, just You’re mischaracterizing what I’m saying.

但是斯科特，你只是误解了我所说的话。

2:19:41 I need to clarify when you mischaracterize.

当你错误描述时我需要澄清。

He’s not interrupting every time, but sometimes interrupting.

他不是每次都打断，但有时会打断。

2:19:45 Yes.

是的。

So try not to interrupt as much.

所以尽量不要打扰太多。

Go ahead, Scott.

来吧，斯科特。

Don’t take it personally.

不要把它当成是针对你个人的。

Come on, let’s go.

来吧，我们走吧。

It seems like a deliberate attempt to obfuscate and prevent me-

这似乎是故意试图混淆视听并阻止我——

It’s not.

事实并非如此。

From just being able to complete a point.

从仅仅能够完成一个点开始。

2:19:58 He does it virtually every time.

他几乎每次都会这样做。

No, it’s not.

不，不是。

2:20:02 As a listener, I’m enjoying this.

作为一个听众，我很享受这个。

Well, look, on the face of it, they blew up a lot of stuff and they made them very angry.

好吧，看，从表面上看，他们炸毁了很多东西，这让他们非常生气。

2:20:05 So are they going to now give in or they’re now going to double down or they’re now going to hold still?

那么他们现在会屈服还是会加倍努力还是会按兵不动？

We don’t really know.

我们真的不知道。

As I was trying to explain, from the Ayatollah’s position that he’s in, what are you going to do with a problem like the United States of America, right?

正如我试图解释的那样，从阿亚图拉所处的位置来看，你将如何处理像美利坚合众国这样的问题，对吧？

They can chant great Satan, this and that all they want.

他们可以唱诵伟大的撒旦，随心所欲。

They have no ability to really threaten this country in any way.

他们没有能力以任何方式真正威胁这个国家。

And they know that America absolutely does have the ability to, in fact, even without nuclear weapons, essentially wipe their civilization off the face of the earth just with B52s if we wanted to carpet bomb their major cities.

他们知道，事实上，即使没有核武器，如果我们想对他们的主要城市进行地毯式轰炸，美国绝对有能力仅用 B52 轰炸机将他们的文明从地球上抹去。

So they know, the Ayatollah knows, he’s in a very difficult position.

所以他们知道，阿亚图拉也知道，他的处境非常困难。

Zero casualties so far?

至今零伤亡？

Zero casualties so far.

截至目前零伤亡。

2:21:40 So what is going on there essentially is he’s got to do something.

所以本质上发生的事情是他必须做点什么。

He’s doing these symbolic strikes essentially to say like, “Hey, you can’t do that to me.” But then he’s also telegraphing that, “Hey, I can’t do anything about you and I don’t really want to fight.” And so in a way, he’s kind of backing down.

他做这些象征性的打击基本上是为了说，“嘿，你不能那样对我。”但随后他也表示，“嘿，我对你无能为力，我真的不想打架。”所以在某种程度上，他有点退缩了。

He’s doing, and then what did Donald Trump say?

他正在做，然后唐纳德·特朗普说了什么？

Donald Trump again, let him have the last word and in fact, bragged and mocked and said, “Hey, thanks Ayatollah for giving us a warning that you were about to shoot missiles at our base so we could be ready to shoot them all down,” and this kind of thing.

唐纳德·特朗普再次让他说了最后一句话，事实上，他吹嘘并嘲笑说，“嘿，感谢阿亚图拉向我们发出警告，你即将向我们的基地发射导弹，这样我们就可以准备好将它们全部击落”，诸如此类的事情。

And he said, “Now is the time for peace.” In other words, Trump again, letting the Ayatollah get the last word.

他说：“现在是和平的时候了。”换句话说，特朗普再次让阿亚图拉说了算。

Why?

为什么？

Because the Ayatollah, he might be a horrible leader if you live in Iran, but he is not perfectly, but essentially cautious in foreign policy because what’s he going to do?

因为阿亚图拉，如果你生活在伊朗，他可能是一个可怕的领导人，但他并不完美，但在外交政策上基本上是谨慎的，因为他要做什么？

That is one of the fundamental disagreements in the room that you’re saying they really don’t have interest to develop a nuclear weapon.

这是房间里的根本分歧之一，你说他们确实没有兴趣发展核武器。

2:23:45 And they’re not quite-

而且他们并不完全是——

Well, not exactly.

嗯，不完全是。

2:23:55 I mean, what I said-

我的意思是，我说的是——

More towards that direction, then Mark is saying-

更朝着这个方向，马克说——

More toward, but they’re saying, “Look at us.

更多的是，但他们说，“看看我们。

2:23:59 We’re a threshold state.

我们是一个阈值状态。

Don’t push your luck and force us to make the bad decision.” Now, that’s an implication.

不要碰运气，强迫我们做出错误的决定。”现在，这是一个暗示。

They have not said that outright, but clearly the implication is that if we force them, then they will go ahead and make a nuclear weapon.

他们没有直接这么说，但显然暗示如果我们强迫他们，那么他们就会继续制造核武器。

What I mean is if left on their own devices, they would not develop.

我的意思是，如果留在他们自己的设备上，他们就不会发展。

2:24:16 That’s the case you’re making, the case-

这就是你正在做的案子，案子——

Well, not just on their own devices, but if we were to try to negotiate with them in good faith and try to have normal relations with them, that would disincentivize a nuclear weapon even further.

好吧，不仅仅是在他们自己的设备上，而且如果我们试图真诚地与他们谈判并尝试与他们建立正常关系，这将进一步抑制核武器的积极性。

Okay.

好的。

2:24:32 Can you comment on the mission on operation and in general?

您能否对此次任务的运作和总体情况发表评论？

Sure.

当然。

2:24:34 A couple of things I think were interesting, what Scott said, and I agree certainly with some of it.

斯科特所说的一些事情我认为很有趣，我当然同意其中的一些内容。

I mean, the first thing is I do believe President Trump has negotiated in good faith.

我的意思是，首先我确实相信特朗普总统已经真诚地进行了谈判。

I mean, he sent Steve Witkoff, he’s chief negotiator for five rounds of negotiations since he came in office.

我的意思是，他派了自上任以来担任首席谈判代表的史蒂夫·威特科夫(Steve Witkoff)进行了五轮谈判。

The second is, I mean, we can keep going around in circles, but the fact of the matter is I do believe that Iran and Iran-backed terrorist organizations have for since 1979 killed and tried to kill and maim Americans and taken them hostage.

我的意思是，第二个是，我们可以继续兜圈子，但事实是，我确实相信，自 1979 年以来，伊朗和伊朗支持的恐怖组织一直在杀害、试图杀害和残害美国人并将他们扣为人质。

I think it’s important for me again to put that on the record, but where I agree with with Scott is, and it’s interesting, and I don’t know if Khamenei has changed.

我认为再次将这一点记录下来对我来说很重要，但我同意斯科特的观点是，这很有趣，我不知道哈梅内伊是否已经改变。

He’s 86 years old.

他今年 86 岁了。

He’s been in power since 1989.

他自1989年以来一直掌权。

And there’s a little bit of history that I think is really interesting.

我认为有一些历史非常有趣。

Do you think that that might have anything to do with the fact that America attacked Iraq and Libya when they did not have weapons of mass destruction programs?

您认为这可能与美国在伊拉克和利比亚没有大规模杀伤性武器计划的情况下袭击它们有关吗？

Can I tell you the Libya example?

我能告诉你利比亚的例子吗？

2:29:04 I think Scott is the most interesting one for me, right?

我认为斯科特对我来说是最有趣的，对吧？

Because the Libya example-

因为利比亚的例子——

When they lynched the guy?

他们什么时候用私刑处死那个人的？

It was a big mistake.

这是一个很大的错误。

2:29:09 By the way, Ukraine is another good example of this.

顺便说一句，乌克兰是另一个很好的例子。

We went to the Libyans and we said, “You must fully dismantle your program.” And Gaddafi said, reluctantly under huge American pressure, “Okay, I’ll do it.” And the Brits and the Americans went in there and literally hauled out his entire nuclear-

我们去找利比亚人，我们说：“你们必须彻底废除你们的计划。”卡扎菲迫于美国的巨大压力，不情愿地说：“好吧，我就这么做。”英国人和美国人进入那里并把他的全部核-

It wasn’t really a program, it was just a bunch of AQ cons junk sitting in crates in a warehouse.

这并不是一个真正的程序，它只是仓库里的板条箱里的一堆 AQ 骗子的垃圾。

2:29:26 They did not have the capability to make a nuclear program at all in Libya.

他们根本没有能力在利比亚实施核计划。

They didn’t have the engineers, the scientists or anyone.

他们没有工程师、科学家或任何人。

So Gaddafi had bought that junk just to trade it away.

所以卡扎菲买了这些垃圾只是为了把它换掉。

Just to be clear, there never was a nuclear weapons program or a nuclear program of any kind in Libya, unlike what you just heard.

需要明确的是，利比亚从来没有核武器计划或任何类型的核计划，这与您刚才听到的不同。

That wasn’t my point.

那不是我的意思。

2:29:48 Okay?

好的？

My point is you had a nuclear program-

我的观点是你有一个核计划-

Patents are important.

专利很重要。

We can debate about, again, how we were debating about whether-

我们可以再次辩论我们如何辩论是否-

He had warehouses full of crates.

他的仓库里装满了板条箱。

Again, it’s always Gaddafi and Khamenei and all these people, they don’t really want nuclear weapons.

再说一遍，总是卡扎菲和哈梅内伊以及所有这些人，他们并不真正想要核武器。

2:29:56 We just misunderstand them.

我们只是误解了他们。

But that’s not the point.

但这不是重点。

The point is, we did a deal with Gaddafi.

关键是，我们与卡扎菲达成了协议。

We pulled out his nuclear program and then I don’t know how many years later, but it wasn’t too many years late.

我们撤出了他的核计划，然后我不知道过了多少年，但也不算晚了太多年。

Seven.

七。

Seven years later, thank you, Scott.

七年后，谢谢你，斯科特。

2:30:10 We actually took Gaddafi out and he didn’t have a nuclear program, so we took him out in the Libya operation.

我们实际上消灭了卡扎菲，而且他没有核计划，所以我们在利比亚行动中消灭了他。

Now, Ukraine is another great example.

现在，乌克兰是另一个很好的例子。

The Ukrainians after the fall of the Soviet Union, you know this, they had the Soviet nuclear arsenal or good parts of it on their soil.

苏联解体后的乌克兰人，你知道这一点，他们的土地上拥有苏联的核武库或其中的大部分。

So we went to them and we said, “All right, well here’s the deal for you.

所以我们去找他们说：“好吧，这是给你的交易。

Give up the nuclear arsenal off your territory, and we and the Russians and the French guarantee your territorial integrity and your sovereignty as a country.” So the Ukrainians said, “Fair deal to me,” gave up all the nuclear weapons, and then Putin has now invaded Ukraine twice.

放弃你们领土上的核武库，我们、俄罗斯人和法国人保证你们的领土完整和国家主权。”所以乌克兰人说，“对我来说公平交易”，放弃了所有核武器，然后普京现在两次入侵乌克兰。

That’s not what the Bucharest Declaration says, that we promised their security, we promised to respect it, and the Russians promised to, and both sides broke that promise.

这不是《布加勒斯特宣言》所说的，我们承诺他们的安全，我们承诺尊重它，俄罗斯人也承诺了，但双方都违背了这一承诺。

2:30:49 But there is nothing like a guarantee.

但没有什么比保证更好的了。

That’s not my point.

这不是我的观点。

That America would protect Ukraine’s sovereignty.

美国将保护乌克兰的主权。

2:31:00 They gave up those nukes and they had no ability to use those nukes anyway, because they were Soviet nukes with Soviet codes and they belonged to the Soviet military, and the Ukrainians would’ve had no ability to use them or deliver.

他们放弃了这些核武器，无论如何他们都没有能力使用这些核武器，因为它们是带有苏联代码的苏联核武器，属于苏联军队，乌克兰人没有能力使用或交付它们。

They were married to missiles that were made to fly around the world, not to Russian next door.

他们与能够在世界各地飞行的导弹联姻，而不是与邻国俄罗斯联姻。

But Scott, my point is, and I think you’ll agree with this, my point is if you’re Khamenei, and you’ve seen those two examples of Libya, you gave up your nuclear program, Gaddafi gets taken down.

但是斯科特，我的观点是，我想你会同意这一点，我的观点是，如果你是哈梅内伊，你已经看到了利比亚的这两个例子，你放弃了核计划，卡扎菲被打倒了。

2:31:18 You’re Ukraine, you gave up your nuclear weapons, and the Russians invaded twice.

你是乌克兰，你放弃了核武器，而俄罗斯人两次入侵。

If you’re Khamenei thinking to yourself, “The only thing that matters more to me than my nuclear weapons program is my regime survival.

如果你是哈梅内伊，你会想：“对我来说，唯一比我的核武器计划更重要的事情就是我政权的生存。

And in 12 days of war, the Israelis specifically, because we hit Fordo and Isfahan and the Khans, we the United States hit those sites.

在 12 天的战争中，特别是以色列人，因为我们袭击了福尔多、伊斯法罕和可汗，我们美国袭击了这些地点。

We the United States hit those sites.

我们美国访问了这些网站。

The gleeful nation, Scott, stop.

快乐的国家，斯科特，停下来。

2:31:53 Take that out.

把那个拿出来。

There’s no place here in this room with me, the un-American bullshit, don’t do that.

这个房间里没有我的位置，非美国式的废话，别这样做。

The implication here, man, is that I, me, am un-American.

这里的含义是，我，我，不是美国人。

I’ve been attacked just like the Russian hoax for being a Putin shill.

就像俄罗斯骗局一样，我被攻击为普京的托儿。

I’m an American.

我是美国人。

Well, when you talk about Ukraine’s war with Russia, do you say we or do you say they?

好吧，当你谈论乌克兰与俄罗斯的战争时，你说我们还是他们？

I said we the United States, we actually-

我说我们美国，我们实际上——

Well, you added the United States, but you just described Israel’s strikes.

嗯，你补充了美国，但你刚刚描述了以色列的袭击。

Israel didn’t strike Fordo, Scott.

斯科特，以色列没有袭击福尔多。

He talked about the US attack.

他谈到了美国的袭击。

2:32:25 You’re speaking to this other people that you’ve heard that somehow.

你正在对其他人说你已经以某种方式听到了这一点。

They do say we, and they talk about, I would say ridiculously as if, I’ve even heard some people basically put Israel above US, and they’re American citizens.

他们确实说我们，他们谈论，我会荒谬地说，好像，我什至听说有些人基本上把以色列置于美国之上，而他们是美国公民。

Yeah, that’s fucking ridiculous.

是的，这太荒谬了。

But none of those people are in this room.

但这些人都不在这个房间里。

There are demons under the bed.

床下有鬼。

I’m sure those people exist.

我确信那些人存在。

There’s ridiculous people on the internet.

互联网上有一些可笑的人。

There’s ridiculous people in Congress who can criticize them, make fun of them, say they’re fucking crazy.

国会里有一些可笑的人可以批评他们，取笑他们，说他们他妈的疯了。

The foundation for a defense of democracy has been the vanguard of the war party in this country for 25 years.

25 年来，捍卫民主基金会一直是这个国家战党的先锋队。

Well, that’s a different criticism, but I was-

嗯，这是一个不同的批评，但我是-

It’s an important one.

这是一个重要的事情。

Yes, that, but no, you just switched.

是的，但是不，你刚刚换了。

2:33:10 You just switched.

你刚刚换了。

No, no, no.

不，不，不。

You just switched from the un-American discussion to criticizing policies that that particular institute, fine, criticize the policies, do that.

你刚刚从非美国讨论转向批评特定机构的政策，好吧，批评政策，这样做。

What is the un-American bullshit?

什么是非美国废话？

Not here.

不在这里。

Lex, the neoconservative movement is the vanguard of the Israel lobby.

莱克斯，新保守主义运动是以色列游说团体的先锋。

2:33:27 That’s who they are.

他们就是这样的人。

That’s what Neoconservatism is about.

这就是新保守主义的意义所在。

Lex, I’m not a NeoCon.

莱克斯，我不是新保守派。

That’s who the war-

战争就是这样——

I’m not a neoconservative, so I don’t know who he’s talking about, but I’m not a neoconservative.

我不是新保守主义者，所以我不知道他在说谁，但我不是新保守主义者。

Let’s not mix stuff up.

我们不要把事情搞混了。

There is a massive Israel lobby in America, in Washington that is inseparable from the American War party.

在美国、华盛顿有一个庞大的以色列游说团体，它与美国战争党密不可分。

Yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊。

2:33:47 I’ve talked to John Mersham.

我和约翰·默沙姆谈过。

I respect him deeply.

我深深地尊敬他。

He’s one of the most brilliant people speaking on that topic.

他是谈论这个话题的最杰出的人之一。

Great, great.

太棒了，太棒了。

Let’s just talk about today and the nuclear proliferation.

我们今天就来说说核扩散吧。

You guys have been brilliant on this.

你们在这方面表现得很出色。

I’m learning a lot.

我学到了很多。

Let’s continue [inaudible 02:34:01].

让我们继续 [听不清 02:34:01]。

Yeah.

是的。

2:34:01 Sorry.

抱歉。

Let’s go back to where Khamenei may be.

让我们回到哈梅内伊可能在的地方。

I mean, in a bunker, 86 years old thinking he’s going to drink the poison chalice and agree to a deal with Donald Trump and Oman, or is he going to do all of the things that Scott and I are concerned about?

我的意思是，在一个地堡里，86 岁的老人认为他会喝下毒酒并同意与唐纳德·特朗普和阿曼达成协议，或者他会做斯科特和我担心的所有事情吗？

And one of those, and Scott has pointed this out rightly so, is he may decide now to break out for the nuke or creep out for the nuke.

其中之一，斯科特正确地指出了这一点，就是他现在可能决定是为了核武器而突围，还是为了核武器而潜行。

He may decide not to do it now, he may decide to do it in three and a half years when President Trump is gone.

他现在可能决定不这样做，也可能在特朗普总统下台后的三年半后决定这样做。

And I think that the important thing is he’s seen, we, the United States, we took out Fordo and Natanz and Isfahan in one operation with B-II bombers and 12 30,000 pound massive orange penatrators and Tomahawk missile.

我认为重要的是他看到了，我们，美国，我们在一次行动中用 B-II 轰炸机和 12 枚 30,000 磅的大型橙色攻击机和战斧导弹摧毁了福尔多、纳坦兹和伊斯法罕。

So if he didn’t think if that the United States had serious military power before, he now knows we do.

因此，如果他以前不认为美国是否拥有强大的军事实力，那么他现在知道我们拥有。

So to you, that operation was geopolitically a success.

所以对你来说，这次行动在地缘政治上是成功的。

2:34:56 It sends a message of strength that if you try to build, you’re going to be punished.

它传递出一种力量的信息，如果你试图建立力量，你就会受到惩罚。

2:35:00 It sends a message of strength that if you try to build, you’re going to be punished for it.

它传递出一种力量的信息，如果你试图建立力量，你就会因此受到惩罚。

So I’ve said online in the past 12 days, and even before that, “Curb your enthusiasm.

所以过去12天，甚至在此之前，我都在网上说过，“抑制住你的热情。

2:35:04 Curb your enthusiasm.” So all the people-

抑制住你的热情。”所以所有的人——

Related to which topic?

与哪个主题相关？

…

……

2:35:13 Yeah, just this idea that this has been this unbelievable success and everything’s great.

是的，只是这个想法，这是令人难以置信的成功，一切都很棒。

And everything’s going to be amazing.

一切都会变得令人惊奇。

And we stopped the nuclear weapons program and this has been a resounding success.

我们停止了核武器计划，这是一个巨大的成功。

You demanded unconditional surrender on Twitter again last night, right?

昨晚你又在推特上要求无条件投降是吗？

2:35:37 After Trump said there’s a ceasefire?

特朗普说停火后？

Yes.

是的。

What does unconditional surrender mean?

无条件投降是什么意思？

It means no enrichment, full dismantlement.

意味着不充实，全面拆解。

Okay.

好的。

Yes, exactly right.

是的，完全正确。

2:35:46 It’s exactly what President Trump …

这正是特朗普总统所做的……

Well, I can’t-

好吧，我不能-

Not a regime change?

不是政权更迭吗？

2:35:49 Unconditional surrender in World War II meant the end of the Nazi regime and the imperialist Japanese regime entirely.

第二次世界大战的无条件投降意味着纳粹政权和日本帝国主义政权的彻底终结。

Right?

对吗？

Does President Trump know what that means?

特朗普总统知道这意味着什么吗？

He made it very clear.

他说得很清楚了。

2:35:56 President Trump made it very clear.

特朗普总统说得很清楚。

Unconditional?

无条件？

He made it clear, ” I don’t support regime change.”

他明确表示，“我不支持政权更迭”。

Well, except for that one post.

好吧，除了那一篇文章。

A few hours earlier?

提前几个小时？

2:36:04 Right.

对。

Actually, I’ll explain that one because I thought it was really interesting.

事实上，我会解释一下这个，因为我认为这真的很有趣。

He’s re-analyzing it like it’s Shakespeare.

他像莎士比亚一样重新分析它。

2:36:10 What does that?

那有什么作用？

Yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊。

And what did he also mean?

他又是什么意思呢？

2:36:11 We have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don’t know what the fuck they’re doing.

我们两个国家已经打了这么长时间、这么激烈，以至于他们不知道自己在做什么。

What’s that about?

那是关于什么的？

He was angry that Israel was still attacking after he promised they weren’t.

他对以色列在他承诺不会攻击后仍然发动攻击感到愤怒。

2:36:18 He demanded they turn their planes around.

他要求他们调转飞机。

He felt that they were doing it in defiance of their agreement.

他觉得他们这样做是违反协议的。

But he didn’t say Israel.

但他没有说以色列。

2:36:27 He says that both countries [inaudible 02:36:30].

他说这两个国家都是如此 [听不清 02:36:30]。

Different quote.

不同的报价。

2:36:29 He did say, I believe it was a tweet from Truth Social, “I demand that Israel turn those planes around right now.” Was how upset he was about it.

他确实说过，我相信这是来自 Truth Social 的一条推文，“我要求以色列立即调转这些飞机。”他对此感到多么沮丧。

Well, I guess Donald Trump doesn’t listen to Bibi all the time, does he?

嗯，我猜唐纳德·特朗普并不总是听比比的话，是吗？

Yeah, I guess he’s finding out they respect him about as much as they respect the Palestinian.

是的，我猜他发现他们尊重他就像尊重巴勒斯坦人一样。

2:36:41 He’s just the help.

他只是帮助者。

Well, that’s how world leaders ….

嗯，世界领导人就是这样……

2:36:47 World leaders are interested in their own nation.

世界领导人对自己的国家感兴趣。

That’s right.

没错。

They fuck you over.

他们操你。

Good important lesson there everyone.

大家都学到了重要的一课。

2:36:51 What does Israel care about?

以色列关心什么？

Israel.

以色列。

Every country then defends its national interests.

每个国家都会捍卫自己的国家利益。

2:36:55 That’s not unusual for Israel or any other country.

这对于以色列或任何其他国家来说并不罕见。

But I think to understand-

但我想明白了——

We’re supposed to pretend that, “Hey, whatever Israel needs, we’re here to serve their interests.”

我们应该假装：“嘿，无论以色列需要什么，我们都会为他们的利益服务。”

If those people exist, they aren’t American.

如果这些人存在，他们就不是美国人。

2:37:06 If people put Israel’s interest first-

如果人们把以色列的利益放在第一位——

He just said we fight terrorism together.

他只是说我们一起打击恐怖主义。

…

……

2:37:15 Well, we do.

嗯，我们愿意。

Well, we generate terrorism together.

好吧，我们一起制造恐怖主义。

What are you talking about?

你在说什么？

But that doesn’t mean you put Israel’s interest above America’s.

但这并不意味着你将以色列的利益置于美国之上。

If you do, you’re unAmerican.

如果你这样做，你就不是美国人。

You know how many American lives-

你知道有多少美国人的生命——

That’s all I’m saying.

这就是我要说的。

…

……

2:37:22 Israeli intelligence community has saved?

以色列情报界有救吗？

And ask people in the FBI and CIA who work counter-terrorism, how many American lives the Israelis have saved because of their intelligence capabilities.

问问联邦调查局和中央情报局的反恐人员，以色列人因其情报能力拯救了多少美国人的生命。

How about when Naftali Bennett, again, bombed that shelter full of women and children and caused the September 11th attack.

纳夫塔利·贝内特再次轰炸了那个挤满妇女和儿童的避难所并引发了 9 月 11 日的袭击，情况又如何呢？

2:37:34 That’s what happened.

这就是发生的事情。

In fact, I don’t know if you know the story, but you could Google this.

事实上，我不知道你是否知道这个故事，但你可以谷歌一下。

You like Googling things.

你喜欢用谷歌搜索东西。

It’s on Google Books.

它在 Google 图书上。

Of course, that’s ignores the history of Al-Qaeda-

当然，这忽略了基地组织的历史——

Which for years before that was for the United States, Britain, and Saudi Arabia.

在此之前的几年里，这是美国、英国和沙特阿拉伯的事。

…

……

2:38:52 operations against the United States, but executing them.

针对美国的行动，但执行这些行动。

You guys love pulling each other into history.

你们喜欢把彼此拉进历史。

No, no, no.

不，不，不。

2:38:57 History is, America’s problem with Al-Qaeda-

历史是，美国与基地组织的问题——

Just one second.

只需一秒钟。

2:39:01 America’s problems with Al-Qaeda is Israel.

美国与基地组织的问题在于以色列。

America and Israel are terrorist states.

美国和以色列都是恐怖主义国家。

Scott-

斯科特-

They were America’s mercenaries that we used in Afghanistan, in Bosnia, in Kosovo, in Chechnya.

他们是我们在阿富汗、波斯尼亚、科索沃、车臣使用的美国雇佣军。

It’s all us.

都是我们。

2:39:11 It’s all us.

都是我们。

But they turned against us.

但他们却转而反对我们。

And when I mean us, Scott?

当我指的是我们时，斯科特？

2:39:12 I mean, America.

我的意思是，美国。

They turned against us.

他们转而反对我们。

It’s all us, Scott.

都是我们，斯科特。

2:39:14 It’s all us.

都是我们。

Anyone can read Michael Shearer’s book, the former chief of the CIA’s Bin Laden where he wrote his great book.

任何人都可以读迈克尔·希勒的书，他是中央情报局前局长本·拉登，并在那里写下了他的伟大著作。

We’re responsible for our enemies attacking us.

我们要对攻击我们的敌人负责。

It’s called Imperial Hubris.

这就是所谓的帝国傲慢。

That’s the most articulate justification I’ve ever heard for Al-Qaeda in my life.

这是我一生中听过的为基地组织辩护的最明确的理由。

2:39:38 But let’s-

但是让我们-

It’s not a justification.

这不是一个理由。

2:39:42 I’m not saying that makes what they did right?

我不是说他们做的事情就是对的吗？

I’m saying that was how Bin Laden recruited his foot soldiers to attack this country was by citing American foreign policies that were directly to the detriment of the people of the Middle East.

我是说，本拉登就是这样招募他的步兵来攻击这个国家的，他引用了直接损害中东人民利益的美国外交政策。

And specifically, our support for Israel.

具体来说，我们对以色列的支持。

I think Al-Qaeda hates America, Scott.

我认为基地组织讨厌美国，斯科特。

Why?

为什么？

2:41:28 You know what?

你知道吗？

I’ll tell you what, Ali Soufan …

我告诉你什么，阿里·苏凡……

You know, Ali Soufan, the former FBI agent, counter-terrorism agent?

你知道前联邦调查局特工、反恐特工阿里·苏凡吗？

He wrote in his book, The Black Banners, that the Bin Ladenites said to Bin Laden, “We don’t understand why you’re so angry at America.

他在《黑旗》一书中写道，本拉登分子对本拉登说：“我们不明白你为什么对美国如此愤怒。

They’ve been so good to us in Afghanistan, in Bosnia, in Kosovo, and now here in Chechnya.

他们在阿富汗、波斯尼亚、科索沃以及现在的车臣对我们非常好。

Why do you want to attack them?”

你为什么要攻击他们？”

And Bin Laden attacked America.

本拉登袭击了美国。

Bin Laden said, “I have a larger agenda that you don’t understand.”

本拉登说：“我有一个更大的议程，但你不明白。”

The disagreement between you is clear.

你们之间的分歧很明显。

2:41:54 I’ve talked to Noam Chomsky twice.

我和诺姆·乔姆斯基谈过两次。

Scott, you focus on the criticism.

斯科特，你专注于批评。

You should interview Michael Scheuer.

你应该采访迈克尔·舒尔。

2:41:59 Well, although he’s gone pretty crazy lately.

好吧，虽然他最近变得很疯狂。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Maybe not.

也许不是。

Anyway, we’re going into history.

无论如何，我们即将走进历史。

2:42:04 We’re learning a lot.

我们学到了很多。

The perspectives differ strongly.

观点差异很大。

Can we look into the, maybe a ridiculous question, but a nuclear proliferation?

我们能否研究一下核扩散这个可能很荒谬的问题？

You already started to speak to, both of you.

你们已经开始和你们俩说话了。

So look, I think it’s a great question.

所以看，我认为这是一个很好的问题。

2:42:41 Will there be more nuclear weapons powers in the future or less as a result of this decision by President Trump?

由于特朗普总统的这一决定，未来核武器国家的数量会增加还是减少？

What if they don’t?

如果他们不这样做怎么办？

2:45:07 What if they’re prevented?

如果他们被阻止怎么办？

Doesn’t that still send the same message to everybody that they should build?

这是否仍然向每个人发出了他们应该建造的相同信息？

Oh, I think it sends the opposite message, Lex.

哦，我认为它传达了相反的信息，莱克斯。

2:45:15 I think if they see what has happened and that it’s successful, and it stopped Iran from developing nuclear weapons.

我认为，如果他们看到所发生的事情并且它是成功的，并且它阻止了伊朗发展核武器。

And in addition, if Trump is able to negotiate an agreement for zero enrichment and full dismantlement, then the message to all these other countries is, number one, you don’t need it.

此外，如果特朗普能够通过谈判达成一项零浓缩和全面拆除的协议，那么向所有其他国家传达的信息是，第一，你不需要它。

And number two, if you try to get it, then the United States is going to use American power.

第二，如果你试图得到它，那么美国将使用美国的力量。

My favorite thing is when you guys point out, when you agree with the other person.

我最喜欢的事情是当你们指出、同意对方的观点时。

2:47:42 Anyway, Scott, what do you think?

无论如何，斯科特，你觉得怎么样？

Everything that’s just happened over the past two weeks does to nuclear proliferation over the next 5, 10, 20 years?

过去两周发生的一切会对未来 5 年、10 年、20 年的核扩散产生影响吗？

I really don’t know for sure.

我真的不确定。

2:47:56 But I would think that there’s a very great danger that it’s going to reinforce the lessons of North Korea, Iraq, and Libya, which is, “You better get a nuke to keep America out.

但我认为存在一个非常大的危险，那就是它会强化朝鲜、伊拉克和利比亚的教训，即“你最好拥有核武器来将美国拒之门外。

And you better hurry before it’s too late.”

你最好快点，以免为时已晚。”

And good translator.

还有好的翻译。

And Peele goes off like an angry Black guy kind of character.

皮尔就像一个愤怒的黑人角色一样。

2:49:34 Right?

正确的？

He’s been going nuts on Twitter.

他在推特上疯了。

Yeah, he goes way out, above and beyond, but I think he’s probably acting on instructions to talk that way.

是的，他走得太远了，超越了，但我认为他可能是按照指示这样做的。

2:49:38 And it is a real risk that the NPT could just fall apart when it’s treated so callously by the United States who invented it.

当《不扩散核武器条约》受到发明者美国如此无情的对待时，它可能会崩溃，这是一个真正的风险。

And insisted that the rest of the world adopt the thing to such a great degree.

并坚持要求世界其他地方在很大程度上采用这种东西。

Trump did say, ” Don’t use the N word.” He talked down to Medvedev.

特朗普确实说过，“不要使用 N 这个词。”他居高临下地对梅德韦杰夫说话。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

2:50:02 Yeah, he did.

是的，他做到了。

Don’t throw around the nuclear word.

不要乱用“核”这个词。

Yeah.

是的。

2:50:05 Well, and I appreciate that.

嗯，我很欣赏这一点。

That’s good.

那挺好的。

2:50:07 He’s right.

他是对的。

He’s right in that.

他是对的。

It’s a serious thing.

这是一件严肃的事情。

And look, Pakistanis could give a nuke to Iran who are their friends, I think not the tightest of allies.

看，巴基斯坦人可以向伊朗提供核武器，伊朗是他们的朋友，我认为不是最亲密的盟友。

2:50:12 I’m not saying I predict that, but there’s a danger of that.

我并不是说我预测到了这一点，但这是存在危险的。

Is that your Bill Clinton impression?

这是你对比尔·克林顿的印象吗？

No.

不。

2:52:54 I’ll spare you.

我会饶过你的。

Okay.

好的。

That was pretty good.

那是相当不错了。

2:52:55 After the show, when we’re not recording much.

演出结束后，当我们录制不多的时候。

Can I respond to a couple of things here?

我可以在这里回应一些事情吗？

2:53:00 Just really quickly.

真的很快。

I’ll try to do it quickly.

我会尽力尽快完成。

I didn’t say that.

我没这么说。

…

……

2:54:21 Well, you said, quote unquote, “Iran is not attacking Israel.” So I mean, it’s just not true.

好吧，你说过，“伊朗没有攻击以色列。”所以我的意思是，这不是真的。

Yeah, they were not in a state of war until Israel launched a state of war.

是的，在以色列发动战争状态之前，他们并没有处于战争状态。

2:54:25 That’s the fact.

这就是事实。

Yeah, they were at war.

是的，他们正处于战争状态。

Oh, well, they backed a group that did a thing.

哦，好吧，他们支持了一个做了某件事的团体。

2:54:30 Yeah, okay.

是啊，好吧。

They killed thousands of Israelis, maimed thousands of Israelis.

他们杀害了数以千计的以色列人，致残了数以千计的以色列人。

But that attack was not-

但那次袭击并不是——

Suicide bomb ordered in Tehran.

德黑兰下令实施自杀式炸弹袭击。

The Wall Street Journal says that US intelligence does not believe that Tehran ordered that attack.

《华尔街日报》称，美国情报部门并不认为德黑兰下令发动这次袭击。

2:54:39 But they found out about-

但他们发现——

What the Wall Street Journal says and what the US intelligence says, and we can dispute whether they directed it on October 7th.

《华尔街日报》的说法和美国情报部门的说法，我们可以质疑他们是否在 10 月 7 日指示了这一点。

2:54:43 Everybody knows indisputably, that Iran financed Hamas, provided Hamas with weapons.

无可争议，每个人都知道，伊朗资助了哈马斯，为哈马斯提供了武器。

So did Israel.

以色列也是如此。

Well, just a second, provided Hamas with weapons.

好吧，就一秒钟，为哈马斯提供了武器。

2:54:58 That the IRGC and the Quds force were training Hamas.

伊斯兰革命卫队和圣城军正在训练哈马斯。

Hezbollah backed by Iran was training Hamas.

伊朗支持的真主党正在训练哈马斯。

There were three meetings before October 7th, one in Beirut, one in Damascus, and one in Tehran where the IRGC, Hezbollah, Hamas, and Palestinian Islamic Jihad were together.

10月7日之前举行了三场会议，一场在贝鲁特，一场在大马士革，一场在德黑兰，伊朗革命卫队、真主党、哈马斯和巴勒斯坦伊斯兰圣战组织都在德黑兰举行会议。

There was a meeting in Tehran that was attended by Khamenei the Supreme leader.

最高领袖哈梅内伊出席了在德黑兰举行的一次会议。

Critics of Israel will say that Benjamin Netanyahu has also been indirectly financing Hamas by allowing the funds going into-

以色列的批评者会说，本杰明·内塔尼亚胡还通过允许资金进入-来间接资助哈马斯。

I’ll say that America backs Israel, so anything Israel does is America’s responsibility too under that same logic, right?

我会说美国支持以色列，所以按照同样的逻辑，以色列所做的任何事情也是美国的责任，对吗？

…

……

2:55:58 I think you started to make a point disagreeing with Scott about that they’re not a good member of the NPT.

我认为你开始提出不同意斯科特的观点，即他们不是《不扩散核武器条约》的好成员。

That’s all tiny technical violations.

这些都是微小的技术违规。

2:56:04 None of that has anything to do with weaponization.

这些都与武器化无关。

It’s always so, “Yeah, how do you explain this isotope?” And they go, “Well, it must’ve came with the Pakistani junk that we bought from [inaudible 02:56:14].”

总是这样，“是的，你如何解释这种同位素？”他们说，“好吧，它一定是和我们从[听不清的 02:56:14] 那里购买的巴基斯坦垃圾一起带来的。”

Yeah, that’s just not the case.

是的，事实并非如此。

That’s the entire history of the IAEA’s objections to Iran.

这就是国际原子能机构反对伊朗的整个历史。

So your listeners, I know they’re not going to do it, because it’s a lot of technical reading.

所以你的听众，我知道他们不会这样做，因为这是大量的技术阅读。

Nothing to do with weaponization.

与武器化无关。

2:56:31 A diversion of nuclear material.

核材料的转移。

But just go out, go out and read IAEA reports dating back at least 20 years.

但只要出去，出去阅读至少 20 年前的 IAEA 报告。

And you’ll see the IAEA meticulously, methodically, dispassionately outlining all of the violations that Iran has embarked on of the NPT.

你会看到国际原子能机构一丝不苟、有条不紊、冷静地概述了伊朗违反《不扩散核武器条约》的所有行为。

Virtually all those are resolved later.

事实上，所有这些问题都会在以后解决。

2:56:50 They won’t answer this, and then later they do.

他们不会回答这个问题，但后来他们就会回答。

Well, they won’t answer that, and then later they do.

好吧，他们不会回答这个问题，然后他们就会回答。

And many open files are still there.

并且许多打开的文件仍然存在。

2:56:56 Again, I just want your viewers to walk away from this conversation thinking, “Okay, that’s interesting.

再说一次，我只是希望观众在结束这场对话时思考：“好吧，这很有趣。

I didn’t know that.” And that, “I’m going to go fact check Mark and fact check Scott, and just see what this is all about.” Right?

我不知道。”然后，“我要去事实核查马克和斯科特，看看这到底是怎么回事。”正确的？

Because otherwise, it’s just he says, she says, or he says, he says.

因为否则的话，就只是他说，她说，或者他说，他说。

They abided by the additional protocol without having ratified it.

他们未经批准就遵守了附加议定书。

2:57:34 They abided by it for three years and did not proceed with any enrichment at all as long as they were dealing in good faith with the EU until W.

他们遵守了三年，只要他们真诚地与欧盟打交道，就根本没有进行任何浓缩活动，直到W.

Bush ruined those negotiations and closed them down.

布什破坏了这些谈判并结束了它们。

Only then did they begin to install the centrifuges at Natanz.

直到那时，他们才开始在纳坦兹安装离心机。

It’s always the Americans who screw things up.

搞砸事情的总是美国人。

You complain they didn’t ratify the thing, but they abided by it for years.

你抱怨他们没有批准这件事，但他们多年来一直遵守它。

So that’s an interesting-

所以这是一个有趣的——

They were in violation of it.

他们违反了它。

2:57:57 But I think a more pragmatic and important disagreement that we already spoke to is how do we decrease the incentive for Iran to build nuclear programs?

但我认为我们已经讨论过的一个更务实和重要的分歧是我们如何减少伊朗建立核计划的动力？

Not just the next couple of years, but the next 10, 20 years.

不仅仅是未来几年，而是未来10年、20年。

Attack it more.

多攻击一下吧

You’re mocking that.

你在嘲笑那个。

2:58:12 There’s a lot of people that will …

有很多人会……

There’s neocons that say basically, “Invade everything.

新保守派基本上会说：“入侵一切。

Let’s make money off of war.”

让我们从战争中赚钱吧。”

If we’re really lucky.

如果我们真的很幸运的话。

So it’s a big risk is your case.

所以你的情况风险很大。

So here’s some practical recommendations that I think the United States should follow.

因此，我认为美国应该遵循以下一些实用建议。

2:58:36 I think the first is get the Iranians back to Oman, negotiate with them and do a deal.

我认为首先是让伊朗人返回阿曼，与他们谈判并达成协议。

So Scott, as many people know, here in Austin, Texas, you’re the director of the Libertarian Institute.

斯科特，正如很多人所知，在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，你是自由主义研究所的所长。

3:03:02 Let’s zoom out a bit.

让我们缩小一点。

What are the key pillars of libertarianism and how that informs how you see the world?

自由主义的关键支柱是什么？它如何影响你如何看待世界？

Well, the very basis of libertarianism is the non-aggression principle, which essentially is the same thing as our social rules for dealing with each other in private life.

嗯，自由主义的基础是互不侵犯原则，这本质上与我们在私人生活中相互交往的社会规则是一样的。

3:03:17 No force, no theft, no fraud, and keep your hands to yourself.

不强迫、不盗窃、不欺诈，管好自己的手。

And we apply that same moral law to government.

我们将同样的道德法则应用于政府。

3:06:00 For the United States of America, what we want is independence, non-interventionism and peace.

对于美利坚合众国来说，我们想要的是独立、不干涉主义与和平。

So to you, isolationism is a kind of dirty word-

所以对你来说，孤立主义是一个肮脏的词——

That’s right.

没错。

3:06:08 It’s a smear term-

这是一个诽谤性的术语——

It’s a smear term.

这是一个诽谤性的术语。

Invented by interventionists and internationalists to attack anyone who didn’t want to go along with their agenda.

由干涉主义者和国际主义者发明，旨在攻击任何不想遵循他们议程的人。

3:06:10 The term itself is used essentially as a smear against anyone who doesn’t want to go to war.

这个词本身本质上是用来抹黑任何不想参战的人的。

So can you actually just deeper describe what non-interventionism means?

那么，您能更深入地描述一下不干预主义的含义吗？

3:06:22 So how much display of military strength should be there, do you think?

那么您认为应该展示多少军事实力呢？

Dr. Paul said, we could defend this country with a couple of good submarines, which by the way, for people who don’t know, one American Trident sub could essentially kill every city and military base in Russia, just one.

保罗博士​​说，我们可以用几艘优秀的潜艇来保卫这个国家，顺便说一句，对于那些不知道的人来说，一艘美国三叉戟潜艇基本上可以杀死俄罗斯的每一个城市和军事基地，仅仅一个。

3:06:32 So he’s absolutely right about that.

所以他的说法绝对正确。

A couple of good submarines are enough to defend our coast and deter anyone from messing with the United States of America.

几艘优秀的潜艇就足以保卫我们的海岸并阻止任何人扰乱美利坚合众国。

And then I admit, I’m a little bit idealistic about this, that I think of that old William Jennings Bryan speech, ” Behold the Republic,” where unlike the empires of Europe burdened under the weight of militarism.

然后我承认，我对此有点理想化，我想起了威廉·詹宁斯·布莱恩的旧演讲“看共和国”，与欧洲帝国不同，欧洲帝国背负着军国主义的重担。

Here we have a free country and where you know what we could do?

我们这里有一个自由的国家，你知道我们能做什么？

We could be the host of peace conferences everywhere.

我们可以成为世界各地和平会议的东道主。

There are frozen conflicts in the Donbass, in Kaliningrad, in Transnistria, in Taiwan, in Korea, virtually all the borders of Africa and Eurasia were drawn by European powers to either divide and conquer their enemies or artificially group their enemies together in order to keep them internally divided and conquered in those ways.

顿巴斯、加里宁格勒、德涅斯特河沿岸、台湾、朝鲜，几乎所有非洲和欧亚大陆的边界都是由欧洲列强划定的，目的是分裂和征服他们的敌人，或者人为地将他们的敌人聚集在一起，以便以这种方式在内部分裂和征服他们。

Yeah, I’ve criticized Trump a lot, but I think maybe he’s just rhetoric, but I think he talks about peace a lot.

是的，我批评了特朗普很多次，但我认为也许他只是说说而已，但我认为他经常谈论和平。

3:08:54 Even just recently, the number of times the word peace is mentioned and with seriousness, not you get a genuine desire for peace from him.

即使就在最近，“和平”这个词被多次严肃地提及，但你并没有从他那里得到真正的和平渴望。

And that’s just beautiful to see for the leader of this country.

对于这个国家的领导人来说，这是一件很美好的事情。

And look, man, there used to be a time when a third of the planet was dominated by the communists, right?

你看，伙计，曾经有一段时间，地球上三分之一的地区都被共产党统治了，对吗？

3:09:15 So I’m not going to sit here and argue the first Cold War with you.

所以我不会坐在这里与你们争论第一次冷战。

My book’s about the second one, and I’m not as good on the first.

我的书是关于第二个的，而我对第一个的了解没那么好。

But since the end of the first Cold War, we have let the neoconservative policy of the defense planning guidance of ’92 and rebuilding America’s defenses and the rest of this American dominance-centered policy control our entire direction in the world.

但自第一次冷战结束以来，我们让92年国防规划指导和重建美国国防的新保守主义政策以及其他以美国主导地位为中心的政策控制了我们在世界上的整个方向。

It’s led to the war on terrorism in the Middle East, seven countries we’ve attacked.

它导致了中东的反恐战争，我们攻击了七个国家。

It’s led to the disaster in Eastern Europe, and it’s leading toward disaster in Eastern Asia when there’s just no reason in the world that it has to be this way with the commies dead and gone.

它导致了东欧的灾难，也导致了东亚的灾难，而世界上没有理由让共产党死而复生。

Just one more thing.

还有一件事。

3:10:22 You mentioned the two submarines.

你提到了两艘潜艇。

What’s the role of nuclear weapons?

核武器的作用是什么？

Well, I would like for America to have an extremely minimal nuclear deterrent and work toward a world free of nuclear weapons.

嗯，我希望美国拥有极低限度的核威慑力量，并努力实现一个无核武器的世界。

3:10:28 And I know that that sounds utopian.

我知道这听起来很乌托邦。

However, I would remind your audience that Ronald Reagan and Mikhail Gorbachev came within a hair of achieving a deal just like that at Reykjavik Iceland in 1986, and they were both of them dead serious about it, complete and total nuclear disarmament.

然而，我想提醒各位听众，罗纳德·里根和米哈伊尔·戈尔巴乔夫差一点就达成了一项协议，就像 1986 年在冰岛雷克雅未克达成的协议一样，他们都非常认真地对待它，即彻底彻底的核裁军。

Then Reagan was essentially bullied by Richard Pearl and others on his staff saying, “You promised the American people that you would build them a defensive anti-missile system, the Star Wars system,” which was total pie in the sky, technological fantasy of the 1980s.

然后，里根基本上被理查德·珀尔和他的幕僚中的其他人欺负，他们说，“你向美国人民承诺，你将为他们建立一个防御性反导弹系统，即星球大战系统”，这完全是天上掉馅饼，是 20 世纪 80 年代的技术幻想。

And if you’re getting rid of all the ICBMs, then why the hell do you need a missile shield anyway?

如果你要摆脱所有洲际弹道导弹，那你到底为什么还需要导弹防护罩呢？

Is the world’s probably greatest tragedy that ever took place that Ronald Reagan walked away from those negotiations.

罗纳德·里根退出这些谈判可能是世界上最大的悲剧。

We should also just say one more thing, not to be ageist, but most of the major leaders with nukes and those with power in the world are in their 70s and 80s.

我们还应该再说一件事，不要歧视年龄，但世界上大多数拥有核武器的主要领导人和拥有权力的人都是70多岁和80多岁。

3:12:40 I don’t know if that contributes to it, but they kind of are grounded in a different time.

我不知道这是否有所贡献，但它们有点扎根于不同的时间。

I have a hope for the fresher, younger leaders to have a more optimistic view towards peace and to be able to reach towards peace.

我希望更年轻、更年轻的领导人能够对和平抱有更加乐观的态度，并能够实现和平。

And underlying so much of what we’re talking about here is all this enmity, but if America could just work, remember when China cut that pseudo sort of peace deal between Saudi and Iran a couple of years ago or last year was it?

我们在这里谈论的很多事情的背后都是这种敌意，但如果美国能够正常工作，还记得几年前或去年中国在沙特和伊朗之间达成那种伪和平协议的时候吗？

3:13:06 We could try to double up on that.

我们可以尝试加倍努力。

We could try to come up with ways for Saudi and Iran to exchange as much as possible.

我们可以尝试想出办法让沙特和伊朗尽可能多地进行交流。

I know you don’t like all the going back too far in history, but it’s important.

我知道你不喜欢追溯太久远的历史，但这很重要。

It’s in my book that in 1993, Zbigniew Brzezinski, who the revolution had happened on his watch Operation Eagle Claw, the disaster of the rescue mission in ’79 after the hostage crisis and everything, all that egg was on ZB’s face.

在我的书中，1993年，兹比格涅夫·布热津斯基（Zbigniew Brzezinski）在他的鹰爪行动中发生了革命，79年人质危机之后的救援任务发生了灾难，所有这些鸡蛋都在ZB的脸上。

But in ’93 he said, “We should normalize relations.

但在 93 年，他说：“我们应该实现关系正常化。

We should build an oil pipeline across Iran so they can make money.

我们应该修建一条横跨伊朗的石油管道，这样他们就可以赚钱。

We can make money and we can start to normalize.”

我们可以赚钱，我们可以开始正常化。”

But to just have Scott and I fighting-

但让斯科特和我战斗——

That’s a fund kind of fight.

这是一场基金之争。

Fun and peaceful.

有趣又平静。

Mark, you’re the CEO of FDD, the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, it’s a DC-based organization that focuses on national security and foreign policy.

马克，你是保卫民主基金会（FDD）的首席执行官，这是一个总部位于华盛顿的组织，专注于国家安全和外交政策。

3:15:51 What has been your approach to solving some of these problems of the world?

您解决世界上的一些问题的方法是什么？

So look, I love the vision that Scott painted, and I agree with some of the libertarian instincts that he has, but my view is that America is the indispensable power.

所以看，我喜欢斯科特描绘的愿景，我同意他的一些自由主义本能，但我的观点是美国是不可或缺的力量。

3:16:09 Scott mentioned earlier in the conversation about the rules-based order that is so important and the NPT and all these rules-based agreements that are important to maintain.

斯科特早些时候在谈话中提到了非常重要的基于规则的秩序，以及《不扩散核武器条约》和所有这些对于维护非常重要的基于规则的协议。

Well, the rules-based order has been maintained by the United States since World War II.

那么，二战以来，基于规则的秩序是美国一直维持的。

There is no American prosperity to the degree that we have.

美国没有达到我们这样的繁荣程度。

There’s no recovery of Europe, there’s no recovery of Asia after the devastation of World War II without American power and the rules-based order that America has led and back stopped.

如果没有美国的力量以及美国主导和支持的基于规则的秩序的停止，欧洲和亚洲在经历了二战的破坏之后就不可能复苏。