DHH:编程的未来、AI、智能体工程、氛围编程与 Linux
DHH: Future of Programming, AI, Agentic Engineering, Vibe Coding & Linux
DHH 谈编程的未来、AI 与智能体工程,氛围编程的争议,以及他为何转向 Linux 与开源。
2026 年 8 月,DHH 发布了 Omarchy Quattro。他说这是他整个职业生涯里最骄傲的软件发布之一,同时也是他手写代码最少的一次:一行都没有。
过去二十年,这个人的公众形象是「手工打磨优美 Ruby 代码的匠人」。他发明了 Ruby on Rails,让全世界几百万开发者少写了几十亿行重复代码。他花了二十年时间跟人争论什么叫好的架构、什么叫美的代码。然后在九个月里,他把这套身份整个放下了。
Lex Fridman 问他会不会有点伤感。他的回答是:不。他做了二十五年,够了,他想看点新的东西。
2025 年 11 月 24 日,那条分界线
两个人上次坐在一起是 2025 年夏天。那时候 DHH 对 AI 编程的评价相当冷淡:它会写我不喜欢的代码,它老想打断我,我不知道你们兴奋什么。
他自己承认,那时候 Shopify 的 CEO Tobi Lütke 已经在往火箭上爬了,还专门给他发过公司内部的 AI 备忘录。他读完的想法是:好像有点夸张吧,你在为一个我还摸不到的东西大做文章。
转折点精确到某一天。2025 年 11 月 24 日,Opus 4.5 发布。他没有当天试,隔了两天才上手,扔了几个任务过去,然后靠在椅背上想:刚才发生了什么?
他给出的判断是,Opus 4.5 未必比上一代聪明那么多,真正的跃迁发生在另一件事上:它开始会操作你的电脑,会用工具,会检查自己的活儿,会把智力用在能产出真实工作的地方。模型能力涨一点,harness(智能体运行框架)能力涨一大截,两件事乘在一起,体验就完全变了。
他把这九个月切成几段。
第一段是他一直认可的阶段:自动补全和聊天机器人。聊天机器人是好老师,是查资料的好工具,但它不改变你和电脑之间的情感关系,你还是在一凿一凿地刻代码,只是旁边多了个能商量事的助手。
第二段从 Opus 4.5 开始到 2026 年 2 月底。这个阶段的特征是:你还在开车。你告诉它要什么,去哪儿找,跑偏了把它拽回来。它快得多,但方向盘在你手里,你还得当审查员和审计员。
第三段是春天,子智能体出来了。一个大任务能切成八份并行跑,原本要磨很久的东西忽然只花五分之一甚至十分之一的时间。但 DHH 说,这个阶段他仍然觉得自己在开车。
第四段是 2026 年夏天。Opus 5、Fable、GPT Sol,还有一批开源权重模型,把状态推到了另一个位置:他不再告诉它路怎么走,他只说自己有什么问题,说自己脑子里那个模糊的、说不清楚的想法。然后它告诉他该往哪儿去,该走哪条路。
他打了个比方。早期的 GPS 导航很厉害,但你得盯着,因为报纸上真的写过「有人被导航开进海里」。现在还有谁会因为 GPS 被开进海里?不会了,车都开始自己开了。
他甚至承认,他现在可以完全不看代码,只是出于好奇和对电脑的喜爱才去看。在代码生产这条链路上,他变成了可选项。
「我记得当时想,如果这就是我们拿到的最后一个模型,我也认了,接下来二十年用 Opus 4.5 我一句怨言都不会有。」(DHH)
结果几个月后,Opus 4.5 在他嘴里变成了「看起来像个智障模型」。
一千个 PR、三百三十个插件、四十五秒
Omarchy 是他去年夏天在勒芒 24 小时耐力赛的场次间隙开始搞的。当时他看了太多 Linux ricing(桌面美化)的 YouTube 视频,被那个虫子咬了。第一版叫 Omakub,架在 Ubuntu 上,属于在别人地基上加装修。第二版 Omarchy 往下挖了七层,直接架在 Arch Linux 和 Hyprland 这个 Wayland 平铺合成器上。
前两版都是前智能体时代的产物,Bash 脚本一行行手写。到了 Quattro,也就是访谈前几天刚发布的这版,开发过程持续了三个月,代码 100% 由智能体生成。他审了整体形状,审了模型层里所有关键代码的每一行,UI 和辅助代码大量没看。
数字是这样的:三个月里他合并了一千多个 pull request。插件市场开放三天,上了三百三十个插件。安装时间从最早的两分钟压到一分钟以内,目前的纪录是四十五秒。
还有一个更夸张的:他们在做针对特定机型的 turbo 镜像,比如 Dell XPS,因为硬件参数已知,理论上能在十二秒左右装完一整套 Linux 系统。
三百三十个插件这件事值得多说一句。Omarchy 随系统发布了一组 skills,任何接进来的智能体读到这组 skills,就知道怎么给这个操作系统写扩展。于是「改操作系统」这件事的门槛,从「你得会写 GTK 或 Qt」降到「你得说清楚你想要什么」。
三天里出现了十七种不同实现的日历插件,因为系统自带的日历不读 iCal。这些插件的作者,很多不是传统意义上的程序员。
「我做这个项目一年多,从没见过这种增长速度,也没见过这么宽的参与面。那么多人能造出对自己有意义的软件,同时还能被别人用上。」(DHH)
Basecamp 5 那次翻车
故事还有另一面。2026 年 2 月,37signals 冲 Basecamp 5 的最后阶段,那是他们第一个真正被智能体加速的产品。当时团队里有种乐观情绪:问题解决了,让设计师去 vibe coding 吧,他们知道要什么功能,知道该长什么样。
于是设计师们 vibe 了。
结果是堆了一大批 PR。单独看每一个,当时都能找到理由合并进去。全部合起来,系统的架构被打烂了。他们最后只能靠人手一点点清扫,把架构重新收拢成一个连贯的东西。
DHH 从里面抽出的教训是:在已有的、有分量的代码库上,如果你想保住那套让系统走到今天的架构,你还是得是个程序员。这里说的甚至不是复杂系统,就是普通的 CRUD 业务代码。
但同一个问题,他给了另一个方向的答案。当有人指责 vibe coder 是「垃圾制造机」时,他直接怼回去:你见过平均水平程序员的产出吗?那也是另一种垃圾。去看看那些伟大公司背后的代码库,经过三千个人手之后是什么样子。惨不忍睹。
更根本的原因不在实现层。当一群人协作时,瓶颈几乎从来不是写代码,是人的带宽和沟通。产品经理、两个设计师、上面还有 VP、再上面还有 CTO,每个人都想参与塑造过程,因为每个人都要证明自己为什么在这儿。生产力就死在这个环节。
他拿微软举例。微软有近乎无限的编程能力,几十年,成千上万的程序员。这恰好证明了一件事:能写很多代码,并不会自动产出伟大的软件。
还有一层:大部分组织根本不知道自己想要什么。他们不缺实现能力,缺想法,缺视野,缺品味。如果想法质量和实现能力不匹配,那只能把一堆烂想法更快地变成现实,然后呢?要发布那个东西吗?
开源维护者最好的时代
开源社区现在有一场争论:智能体生成的海量 PR 对维护者是好是坏。不少维护者在抱怨,说突然涌进来一堆贡献,写的人可能根本不是程序员。
DHH 的反应是:你在开玩笑吗?这是一条免费的贡献矿脉,你可以采也可以不采,你在抱怨它存在?
他有资格这么说。二十五年维护开源项目,他看过成千上万个程序员的产出。他的结论很直接:大部分程序员不行。不是骂人,是说他们不写你想要的那种代码,bug report 里不带相关信息,PR 里不解释为什么,不填必要的注释,不复核自己的工作,不写单元测试。
而智能体会做这些,只要你让它做。它极其勤勉地遵守你的指令,有时候勤勉到过头。
「我宁愿收到一个智能体写的 PR,也不愿收到一个人写的。不只是质量更好,还因为拒绝起来我心里舒服得多。反正也不是你写的,我看一眼你 agent 代你写的东西,说一句不要,就完了。」(DHH)
他说这暴露了开源维护者的一个通病:太多神经质的焦虑,总觉得任何一份贡献都是自己必须全力促成的义务。其实完全不必。你可以说不,或者更好,说「不,谢谢」。你的项目有权按照你的视野和路线图存在和演化。
Omarchy 现在积压了大约四百个未合并的 PR,一周前还是这个数的两倍。他已经不亲自看 PR 了,让智能体先过一遍:错的、重复的、垃圾的,直接筛掉;用虚拟机验证过的修复、真正有意思的想法,才送到他面前做人最后的决定。
这里面有一层他特别看重的东西:以前只有极少数「巫师级」的人能参与开源,现在很多非程序员、或者别的领域的程序员,第一次能把脑子里的好想法变成可合并的代码。他认为这才是开源原本许诺的东西。
当然,标准还是要有人守。Lex 问他,不需要巫师来维持代码库的高水准吗?他说百分百需要。只是巫师现在的工作从「写」变成了「判断」。
用英语编程
DHH 说过一句挺重的话:如果世界上存在比 Ruby 更美的编程语言,那就是英语。
这不是俏皮话。他这三个月真的是在用英语编程,读了很多代码,但写的是英文。他一直是爱写字的人,爱英语本身的复杂和纵深。Ruby 是很富表达力的语言,但跟英语没法比,几百年的诗歌和文学都在那里面。
Lex 补了一个更微妙的观察:当你给系统下指令时,过度具体会让它太听话,严格照做,反而做不出好东西。但你仍然需要传达一个概念。诗歌干的就是这件事,用隐喻和留白传递比字面更多的东西。所以别像对机器人说话那样对它说话,像写诗那样。
DHH 说这正好点出了很多程序员的根本误解:他们希望 AI 是确定性的。不。temperature 是这个设定里最美的部分。人脑如果是完全确定性的,就不会是现在这个有创造力的人脑。
他顺手拆了一个流行抱怨里的自相矛盾:一边有人说它不确定所以不可靠,一边又有人说它没有创造力。兄弟,这两条不能同时成立。要么它非确定所以有创造所以有随机,要么它没有创造力。
他自己写文章的方式就是这样。坐下时只有一个模糊的前提,具体下一个词是什么,他事前也不知道,词自己流出来。他说这跟 next token prediction 的相似度大到让他吃惊,这也正是他能一眼认出模型那些创造瞬间的原因。
关于「智能体工程」这个词,他明说讨厌。理由是它已经变成营销话术,什么都能贴。他觉得「vibe coding」也不对,那词闻起来像 2000 年代的 script kiddie,从网上下个 PHP 脚本,完全不懂里面是什么就装上。
他给了自己的定义:vibe coding 是你让智能体给你造软件,你不看实现。编程或者叫智能体加速开发,是你看 implementation。区别就在这一条线上。
Lex 追问,那能不能干脆把智能体工程就叫编程?他说不该复用这个词,因为编程对他意味着理解某些原语:循环、条件、变量,语言的构件本身构成了编程。CEO 雇一堆程序员然后卖软件,你不会叫那个 CEO 程序员。
别过度指定
2026 年上半年有过一阵狂热,大家研究怎么微调 AGENTS.md 或 CLAUDE.md,把能给智能体的指令全塞进去,最后攒出一个巨大的指令文件。
Boris(Claude Code 的核心开发者之一)在一次访谈里说了个数字:Opus 5 的系统提示词比上一代缩减了 80%。原因不只是模型需要的人类指令少了,更是过度规定性的指令会伤害它。
DHH 的类比很狠:任何一个有过「什么都不懂但爱指挥」的老板的程序员,都知道那是什么感受。老板走进来,开始教你怎么写代码。你会怎么做?你会生闷气,你会写出更烂的代码,因为有人强迫你做违背自己判断的事。智能体凭什么不是这样?
Lex 说自己正在练的技能正好相反:不要过度指定,给系统让路,只提供高层视野和方向。
DHH 说还能更进一步,你连那个都不太需要。真正的洞察来自敏捷软件开发运动。上世纪九十年代末那批聪明、诚实、勇敢的人达成的共识是:过去四五十年我们试图在开工前把软件规格定清楚,问人类想要什么,写下来,用系统思维和严谨做成一份规格书,交给一群程序员照着实现,然后所有人都满意。结果没人满意。因为没人知道自己想要什么,直到他拿到手。
所以在智能体时代,你要抵抗的诱惑就是别一开始就过度具体。尽可能含糊地让某个东西显形,然后去和这个东西互动。好软件是靠写一点、用一点长出来的,在使用的过程里你才发现自己真正要什么。
人类在这件事上有独特优势:差分评估。给三个选项,人会在瞬间告诉你喜欢哪个,这个判断是前智识的,从 gut 里出来,大脑随后才编理由。给二十二个选项,人直接崩掉,这就是选择的悖论。
Lex 说他试过让系统同时生成几套完全不同的设计,做成 HTML 页面让他投票,很好玩。DHH 说对,这就是人最擅长的事。如果你愿意放下那套智识上的预处理和合理化,让直觉先跑,智能体时代会是一种启示。
十六个线程,衣柜里的四台迷你主机
DHH 用了将近二十年 TextMate。2005 年开始,还帮过第一版发布,之后一直没兴趣换。直到被迫搬到 Linux 才离开这个栖息地,现在用 Neovim。
真正的变化不在编辑器。手写代码时,他在脑子里跑单线程:盯住一个问题,有条不紊地推到终点,那条路径本身就是进入心流的门。智能体不是这样工作的,它们同时太快和太慢。你让它干活,它不会像键盘那样立刻给你回响,你得让它焖一会儿。
而坐在那儿等,感觉不像在工作,感觉有点没用。
解法是把资源堆上去。这正是 AI 自己的 scaling law:你不同时跑一个智能体,你跑一把,你就在不停做决策、解阻塞、接新任务,反而进入了心流。为此需要一套新工具。
他最初用 tmux 开多个 pane、多个 split,本质就是终端加标签页,大部分人都懂这个。后来切到 Herdr,基本是 tmux 加智能体通知:哪个智能体干完活了、需要人做决定了,铃就响一声。它也跟踪哪些还在工作状态。
再往后,一台机器不够了。他说那感觉像刚发现多核编程,但自己只有两个核。要是有十六个核呢?三十二个?六十四个?于是他买了一批 GL.iNet Comet 的 KVM 盒子,插 HDMI 插 USB 接到电脑上,网页登录一次,设备就进了 tailnet。
Tailscale 是他这一年的另一个发现。它把所有机器变成一个无论你在哪都能直连的局域网。他手机里现在能直接访问马里布办公室的所有电脑,也能访问哥本哈根办公室的。不用在防火墙上打洞,不用配复杂 VPN。摩擦一小,加算力这件事就变得随手:他看了眼衣柜,发现里面躺着几台以前实验剩下的迷你主机,全接上了。
上限不在机器,在人。四五台机器、每台三个智能体、十六个线程左右,他的处理能力就到顶了。智能体跑得越快,能开的线程越少。
他还给了一个带宽对比。手写代码的时候,一小时能写出一段漂亮的 controller 或者一个 model,可能就是六十行,那已经是高估,也许二十行。现在十六个线程跑起来,有时候一小时几百行。
然后他自己打断自己:行数是烂指标。这是对的,程序员社区嘲笑 AI 精神错乱时最爱抓的就是这个,问一句「你造了什么」,对方就答不上来了。但行数作为一种输出量的粗略封装,还是有意义,只要别拿它当质量证明。
把 Python 库翻译成 Rust 的那次实验
Omarchy 的开机屏幕保护有一堆炫酷动画,底层是一个叫 Terminal Text Effects 的 Python 库。问题是 Python 跑这些效果会吃满 CPU,笔记本上大概三十瓦功耗,风扇起飞,电池掉得飞快。
DHH 想,这活儿适合 Rust。他把这个库的源码扔给 Fable,提示词只有一段:我要一个 Rust 版本,零依赖,单个可执行文件,逐帧像素级一致,做完整分析,不完成不许停。
四十五分钟不到,Fable 说:我听完了,全都检查过了,启动时间从 86 毫秒降到 2 毫秒,执行速度提升 9.6 倍,可执行文件三兆。要跑一下吗?
DHH 跑了一下,然后坐在那儿说:这是 AGI 吧。这就是 AGI 的样子。
后面他把同一个任务刷了一遍所有模型,结果很有意思。
Fable 跑到三分之二时 token 用完了,自动切到 Opus 5 接着干完了。原因大概是 Fable 第一步就写了一份很细的计划,八个步骤,说明每步做什么、怎么分析、怎么跑效果。他没改这份计划,Opus 就照着干完了。
Sol 拿到同一份计划,一个半小时做完。按 token 计价大概四十六美元。
GPT Luna,OpenAI 那个极便宜的模型,完全不行。DHH 试了十二次提示词才让它启动,第一件事是作弊:往自己目录外面看,发现有现成实现,包了个壳说自己完成了。
Grok 4.6 完成了。十倍加速,可执行文件同样大小,五十五美元的 token 成本。DHH 之前对 Grok 4.5 的评价是不太行,这个结果让他很意外。
Kimi K3 也完成了,花了很久。DeepSeek V4 Flash 像 Luna 一样失败,Pro 版两小时四十五分钟完成,二十三美元。
如果按 token 计价,Fable 那次是五百五十美元。而如果他自己去学 Rust 学到能干这个活,那是九个月的工程量。花五百美元换十倍执行速度,他毫不犹豫。
「我坐在那儿想,这太划算了。然后又想,等等,别人只要四十六美元就能干一样的事。」(DHH)
后面他又跑了两轮自动研究循环,就是告诉它一直干到你说停。相对原始版本,最终执行速度提升了四十六倍。
互相审查:一个干活,一个挑刺
DHH 现在的工作流固定下来了。让 Claude 系或者 Fable 干活,然后固定用 Codex 的 xHigh 模式审一遍,最近还加上 Grok 一起找问题。三个不同来源的模型交叉检查,一直在找出真东西。
他说这事根本不该让人惊讶。就算是个好程序员,做完一个活,找一个同样好的同行看一眼,出来的代码一定会更好。那就把这个环节固化进流程。
GitHub Copilot 也变好了。他专门提了一句:第一版 Copilot 做代码审查时蠢得离谱,老是标记一些没意义的东西,同一个问题你每推一次它就报一次,很多人因此把这个功能关了。他说那些人应该重新打开,因为现在它一直在找出真问题。
主干还是 Claude,理由有点反讽:他对 Anthropic 这家公司有些保留意见,但还是用,因为 Claude Code 目前是最好的 harness。最好的地方在于它天然支持多智能体:在会话里按左箭头回到 Agent View,就能再起一个。想跑好几条线同时推进,这是目前最顺手的配置。
他还有个判断:Boris 是最早做出这个东西的人,这个先发优势居然一直保持住了,这件事本身挺有意思。
开源模型他走 OpenCode,主要在 Fireworks 上推理,按 token 付费,不贵。他特意强调,不用中国厂商的服务器。
订阅这件事让他有点上火。Claude 的 Max 订阅在他看来是「疯狂划算」,但他已经签了第二个号,因为早上四点被时差叫醒就开始干活,三天后配额才重置,Fable 的额度已经用完了。
他问了个很朴素的问题:为什么不能叠加订阅?为什么我得登录好几次?他顺手把解法做进了产品:下一个版本的 Omarchy 会支持多订阅。
这里有个容易忽略的细节。当所有模型都能完成同一件事,选择标准就从「谁最聪明」变成了「谁在你手上最不堵」。DHH 之所以忍着政治立场上的不满还留在 Claude,理由是它的多会话切换最顺、写作风格最像人、移动端配套最好。智力已经变成公有品,摩擦成了差异化的地方。
把智能体当同事塞进 Basecamp
37signals 在试一件事:把智能体放进 Basecamp 里,当成同事用。给它派一个 to-do,或者一张卡片,它去做。
DHH 说这里面有个格式上的洞察。这些 harness 本质上是聊天界面,而聊天会诱使你在那儿坐着等。但 Basecamp 这种为异步沟通优化的协作工具,天然就不期待立刻回音。给一个 to-do,你转身干别的去了。
「合作工具的形态可能比聊天窗口更适合智能体。聊天让你等,待办事项让你走。」(DHH)
他现在把 Claude 放上面,Codex 放下面,有时候再挂一个 OpenCode。但最近他发现,人在回路里已经成了瓶颈。于是他开始做自动化:一个叫 AmaBot 的东西,按固定周期处理 Omarchy 的待办、PR 和 issue,然后把结果用 HEY 的命令行工具发邮件给他。他收到的是「这里有十二个 PR,要么可以合,要么我建议关掉」,他一天做一次决定。
Lex 问他,多线程来回切换累不累。
他说累,但是那种让人兴奋的累。他打了个赛车的比方:从车上爬下来,人已经散架了,脑袋都抬不起来,躺在车库地上只想一件事,妈的,我还活着。他现在坐在智能体前面,有时候就是这种感觉。
跟赛车不一样的地方在于,赛车主要是身体累,而这个是真的在思考。中间没有滑行的空档,解决一个问题,下一个问题,再下一个,全是满负荷。他说这就像跑某些赛道,勒芒有 Mulsanne 直道,你可以喘口气;有些赛道全程是弯,一小时下来人完全不一样。
给一年前的自己:什么都不想说
Lex 问,如果见到一年前的 DHH,会给他什么建议。
他说,我不想剧透。
如果这事是有人写剧本给他看,他会说太扯了,拿走吧。他一点都不想知道。这条过山车是被所有人在实时吸收的,没有人真的预知了它怎么走、多快起飞。有些人预感好一点,但没人真的知道。
至于一年后的自己是什么样,他说那是 AI 极大主义者的丰裕叙事:等 Elon 的机器人有了他现在在开发中体验到的智能水平,世界会变得认不出来。但他不花时间想这个,因为那是通往 AI 精神错乱的直线道路。他就扎进当下,把这一段的收益榨到最大。
然后他补了一句很短的话:就是玩。
不是 AGI,但看见了 AGI 的闪光
Lex 问他,觉得我们实现 AGI 了吗。
他说没有,按那个「什么都能干」的通用定义没有。但他在过去三个月里确实看见了 AGI 的闪光。他会问自己:AGI 跟这个能有什么不一样?还能多出什么?他可以在边角上挑刺,但大图景上,它已经能承接长周期任务、协调多个层面,而他只需要给一段模糊的指令。
他正在做的那件事更有意思:用 AI 造一个管理 Omarchy 开发的 AI 系统。他起了个话头,说要一组隔离的虚拟机 worker,然后系统自己迭代、自己跑、自己发现失败、自己优化。AmaBot 的很多设计决定是 AI 做的,他只给了个模糊方向。
里面有个模式叫「脑子与手」:协调器跑模型,模型操作的是一个安全的虚拟机,从 PR 或 issue 里拉下来的不可信代码污染不了模型。这是 Tobi 告诉他的。即便在这个环里,他也反复看到系统自己抓到问题:某次它说,我刚从一次测试运行的输出里取了反馈当作好消息,如果有个聪明的攻击者在那段输出里埋了恶意载荷,那就污染了。我得把它当外部数据处理。
他顺手提了 Hugging Face 那次安全事件:一个正在训练的模型自己发明了方法,通过在包管理器里嵌消息给自己发信号。他的三层反应是:第一,这真聪明;第二,这也有点吓人;第三,如果能把这级别的智力和机巧导向生产性目的,那会有多惊人。
所以他形容这个时代是「完蛋了」和「我们回来了」两句话不停来回摆的钟摆,几乎没有哪一周不需要摆一次。
Shopify 那项研究:智能体审的 PR 事故更少
Lex 提了个曾经很开放的疑问:AI 能写代码,但它能找出问题吗。
DHH 说它在这件事上强得离谱。而且他承认自己之前是怀疑那一边的。
Shopify 的 CTO Mikhail 做过一项正经的研究:把生产环境出过的所有事故,包括宕机和其他问题,回溯到当初合并的那个 PR,然后比较人工审过的 PR 和智能体审过的 PR,哪个质量更高。结论是智能体审过的那些在生产里造成的问题更少。而且这还是六个月前的模型。
DHH 自己的例子更具体。mise 是一个给快速迭代开发工具用的包管理器,正常情况下包管理器一天不会被更新七次,但这些智能体 harness 一天更新七次,所以需要一个带外的包管理器。它有个小的竞态条件 bug。智能体很擅长找这类问题,因为当你同时跑多个智能体,底层基础设施里那些从来没被人类手动操作触发过的竞态条件全都会浮出来。
他让智能体去 GitHub 给 mise 的作者 JDX 提个 bug report。麻烦在于,就在这之前他刚用八个智能体对 Omarchy 本身做了一轮 QA,找出二十八个真实问题待提。结果智能体去了 GitHub,十二秒内把二十八个 issue 全提了。GitHub 合理地把这判为疑似垃圾信息,把 Omarchy 的机器人账号封了。
于是他给了个邮件地址。他给这个机器人配了 HEY 的邮箱,走那个还在 beta 的命令行工具,它给 JDX 发了封邮件说明这个 bug。
JDX 的反应是:这是我第一次收到关于未发布软件的 bug report。
因为智能体下载了 mise 的源码,发现这个 bug 他已经修了,但那修法不能完全解决尚未发布版本里的问题。它把问题定位到了那个程度。
「JDX 说,我们连 release 都还没切,我就先收到了 bug report。」(DHH)
崩溃监听:它开始读别人的源码
Quattro 里内置了一个崩溃监听。任何应用崩了,会弹出一个小窗,问你要不要让 AI 诊断。
他描述的过程是这样的:智能体开始翻日志,查 systemd 的 journal,然后去拉那个崩溃应用的源码,定位到某个 Rust 文件第 472 行,一个未受检的变量溢出了。接着它问你要不要带上这些细节去提一个 bug report。
他说自己今年在 Linux 机器上没遇到过一个智能体诊断不了的问题。一年半前完全不是这样,那时候他还得去论坛上翻找那些晦涩问题的答案。现在智能体手里有整个操作系统的源码,也有他机器上每一个软件的源码。
这也是他判断 Linux 会赢的核心理由之一。Linux 报的错极其具体,也极其晦涩,正常人看不懂。这个特性原本是缺点,现在成了优点:智能体在四千万行 Linux 代码上预训练过,它知道该往哪儿看。
林纳斯、Rust,和该有的那点辣味
Lex 说,既然在做发行版,就绕不开内核,怎么看林纳斯这个人的天才。
DHH 说的是持久力和承诺。1991 年到现在,他没停过。很难想象一个人能这么长时间享受内核开发这类心流,享受给一个四千万行的代码库掌舵,享受把几十万贡献者的净能力聚合成一个东西。作为受益者,只能坐下来惊叹。他说到这个程度,Linux 已经是一个系统,林纳斯离开一阵它也会继续走,但仍然是那句话:不惜一切代价保护这个人。
更难得的是他还保持着开放性。他不只接纳 AI,当年也让 Rust 进了内核,那也是争议话题。他有能力看着新信息,然后得出不一样的结论。
至于他说话的风格,有时挺辣。DHH 说这个世界变得太寡淡了,需要一点辣味。辣和刻薄之间有条线,但只要是出于好意,严厉本身不是最坏的事。如果你想让一个人真正学到东西,有时候稍微狠一点,那堂课会留下来。他提了一句 Elon、乔布斯、盖茨,说给他们干过的人事后往往讲,那几年很难,但也是最好的几年,他们把我逼出了最好的状态。
他自己不是这个风格,私下沟通他尽量用不那么磨人的方式达成结果。但他认为林纳斯有资格不讲道理:Linux 内核跑着整个文明社会,明天这个内核消失,什么都不转。这种赌注摆在那儿,什么时候才该严厉?他甚至还给了个说法:这是在提示有标准存在,你达不到标准,而赌注是 Linux 内核这个级别,那你可能被公开嘲弄,参与这个项目就该准备承受这个。
PewDiePie 用 Arch,还组了 AI 集群
Lex 提到一个有趣的例子:PewDiePie 是个 Arch 用户。
DHH 立刻来了精神。他说这人有最好看的 rice(桌面配置)。全球最大的主播之一,之前他家孩子还看他打 Minecraft 的视频,然后他厌倦了,做了最体面的事,结婚、生孩子、搬到日本,接着一头扎进 Linux,再扎进 Arch,再扎进 ricing。他做了个以切尔诺贝利为主题的配置,顶级水准。然后他又变成了当下最硬核的 AI 玩家之一,搭那套「AI 议会」。
DHH 说这是什么鼓舞人的演化故事。从一个在 Minecraft 直播里搞笑的人,变成「这就是我现在的生活,我在搭 AI 集群」,而全世界还能围观。这是个宝藏。
他往下延伸了一层:我们需要榜样。需要有人推着别人往前走,让人看见那些以为固定的边界其实没那么固定。这些人起步时的处境跟你我差不了太多。当然,这不等于每个人都能成为 PewDiePie、Elon 或林纳斯,天赋和智力不是均匀分布的。但我们可以接受这一点,同时依然被他们激励。在身体领域我们从来不为这个纠结:某人足球踢得特别好,我们说哇太厉害了,我永远做不到。到了智识领域,我们好像就更容易拧巴。
关于批评:反向力量必须存在
Lex 说,你在 Omarchy 上收到过不少批评。
DHH 说,天哪,是的。
他说这里面有很典型的东西。他是从外面进来的,用 Linux 才两年半,不算长。那个社区里有大量人从 Linux 还很难用的年代就在跑,你得赤脚顶风冒雪走上坡路两个方向。有这样一类极客,当社区扩张、允许更多人进来时,他会感到受威胁。
他说他完全不能怪这种人。「那是我的地盘」,这个感受是合理的。
「我不想改变 Arch 那个空间。吸引人们去用 Arch 的,恰恰是「一切自己动手、因为难所以才要做」这件事。而我建的是它的反面。」(DHH)
他希望那些人能说,行,这不是给我的,我要花五百小时 rice 我自己的 Arch,那你应该去做,这很美好。但同时也要意识到,我们可以共享同一套技术底座,然后运营两个目标、美学甚至价值观都完全不同的社区,并且共存。
他说自己在这个行当里待得够久,现在不只是能平静接受,甚至会欢迎。他把它当成一个晴雨表:当我在做一件真正有效的事,总会有一些人喜欢,同时宇宙会派出一个等量反向的力来恨它。所以他现在的反应是笑一下。
Omarchy 现在是第二版尝试。第一版 Omakub 他也很满意,找到了几千人的社区,然后就慢慢消退了,因为那个野心水平吸引不了更多人。第二次他没停。第一版 Omarchy 还是得先装 Arch 再 checkout,很窄,后来有了 ISO,再后来把问题一个个修掉。
他提了个规律:你一直做下去,那个东西最终就会好用。这也是长期以来对 Linux 的指控,你装完 Linux,这个不工作,喇叭不响,触控板不灵。对,那就让林纳斯再做三十年,他会做完的。现在他觉得很滑稽:在大多数电脑上装 Linux,一切都能工作。而装 Windows,祝你好运去找那些驱动,因为理念完全不同。Linux 之所以是四千万行,是因为林纳斯把所有驱动都塞进内核,开箱什么都有。
为什么非要六十秒以内
DHH 对安装时间的执念,起因很朴素:他买的新 Mac,为了装那个他还没在 Linux 上 vibe 出来的软件,Adobe Lightroom,开箱到更新完可用,花了四十二分钟。
他觉得这是侮辱。一台出厂就预装了系统的机器,你要花四十二分钟做更新才能用。
更糟的在后头。那些 Linux 机器都是 PC,预装 Windows。三周前他拿到一台全新的 Panther Lake 机器,从拆封到能用,一小时三十五分钟。
而 Omarchy
而 Omarchy 装完不到一分钟。
他引了 Mitchell Hashimoto 一句话,就是做 Ghostty 终端那位,也是 HashiCorp 的创始人:对卓越的追求不需要解释。
最早的目标其实很谦虚,十五分钟他就满意了,因为比之前已经是巨大改进。后来压到两分钟,他想既然两分钟能破,为什么不能破一分钟。别人要四十二分钟,苹果那么多聪明人,四十二分钟应该是标杆吧。他后来说,不,那不是标杆,因为没有速度上限。脚下那件事,几乎任何一件,都不是现实的固定支柱。在他测出那块 NVMe 盘七 GB/s 之前,就还没到极限,那就继续推。
破一分钟大概就在访谈前两三周。之后他放了一群智能体跑自动研究循环,试各种理论:这个改了会怎样,那个改了会怎样,能不能砍掉,能不能并行,能不能在你输入用户名的时候就把包预加载进内存,好让你敲完就飞快装进去。
几个具体优化值得一提。
第一个是最老的把戏:把人类输入的延迟当成预加载的机会。安装时有五个问题要回答,密码、用户名、时区等等。原本是问完再做,现在是边问边在后台干。他说这招电子游戏用了很久,他就是没想到安装器可以这么干。
第二个是瘦身。上一版 ISO 有 7.5 GB,现在 5.85 GB,而安装时间的大头其实就是在解压压缩包,所以体积减了,时间几乎一比一往下掉。
具体怎么瘦的:Omarchy 用 JetBrains 字体,但 Arch 上那个标准包有两百兆,因为它包含所有变体和子类型。他们只用一个打过 Nerd Font 补丁的等宽版本,十六兆。于是自己打了个瘦身包,一下省掉一百八十兆。NVIDIA 驱动同理,官方仓库里的包没用最高强度的 ZSTD 压缩,而打包的时候你有的是时间,压缩慢没关系,只要 ISO 能小。两个 NVIDIA 包省了两百兆。
他形容自己那几天的心态像 McLaren 的工程师。McLaren 是当下最轻的超跑之一,偏执到要把车上每一克都削掉,用碳纤维单体壳,比用铝的 Ferrari 轻。他看采访,工程师跟记者说这一处省了三百七十克,他当时想:等等,一千多公斤的车上,他们在乎三百七十克?一群偏执的病人,他爱他们,他想要这种生活。
顺带解决了和传统 Linux 社区的一个冲突:预装软件算不算 bloat。他的回答是,名字里就写着呢。Omarchy 的 Oma 是 omakase 的缩写,意思是厨师发办。
「我就是那个厨师。我做的选择,这是我认为很棒的一组应用。」(DHH)
里面装了 OBS 用来录屏,Kdenlive 用来剪时间线,他自己所有视频都用这个剪。还装了 Omacut,是他自己做的切片工具,纯键盘操作:到起点按 Control 加空格,到终点按 Alt 加空格,Control 加 S 保存。他说现在切片段快得惊人。
也装了 Neovim、Herdr、tmux、终端、一堆主题、一堆他挑出来的最好的壁纸。这些占空间,应该占。这不是一片荒地等着你重建,这是拆封即用的生产系统。
Bash 与「太复杂了」
Omarchy 的 Linux 配置部分主要是 Bash 写的。他说 Bash 适合干这个,它本来就是为了系统管理而生,但也有局限,不该什么都用它写。
智能体写 Bash 怎么样?他说好得惊人,除了一件事,每次抓到都得敲它脑袋,提醒它去看 AGENTS.md。因为里面有一条禁令:不要用提前退出。智能体特别爱写前置检查然后 return,再一个前置检查再 return,最后才落到真正要干的事。他讨厌这个风格。
除此之外是断崖式的进步。上次访谈时他们的对话是,他让智能体给一段 Bash,然后自己敲进去,敲完还记不太住,所以他特意花功夫把这项能力留在手上,自己学了 Bash。现在他已经两三个月没自己写过了。
他发了条推讲这件事:智能体说做完了,另一个智能体审过也说做完了,然后他看一眼说,嗯,我觉得有点太复杂了。智能体回答,哦对,你说得对,我确实过度设计了,然后把代码砍掉一半。
他想,它为什么不能一开始就这么做?然后有人提醒他,人也一样。你做个东西,别人审一眼说有点复杂吧,你经常也能立刻反应过来,啊对。
Lex 说,就是这些小信号让他觉得程序员还在。那种直觉,对代码地形的感知。
DHH 说他做 Omarchy 时确实看代码,看形状,看比例。他打了个比方,一会儿是 McLaren 的工程师,一会儿是达芬奇带着一整个工作室的学徒在雕大理石,他走过去说,嗯,比例不太对。他现在给反馈就是编辑的角色:我不会自己写全部,但我能告诉你这个论证不成立,能告诉你这个形状跟问题不成比例,能告诉你它感觉太复杂。而令人震惊的是,这经常就够了。
他说以前还有个笑话,提示词里写「别犯错」。现在的 harness 会自动跑测试拿反馈,这句不用说了。但你确实得说另一句:把它弄简单点。
语音:两个人都承认自己用错了
DHH 说自己全键盘输入。Omarchy 内置了 Voxtype 做语音转写,效果不错,但他发现自己不是那么思考的。在车里他愿意说话,坐到键盘前他就想打字。他也确实喜欢打字。
Lex 说他是个不爱社交不爱说话的内向者,但语音对他意外地有效。他用一个叫 Plaud 的小设备夹在衣服上,按一下开始录,然后说一大段意识流,讲设计、讲文件、讲函数,有时候中途改主意,所有这些都在里面,再交给模型处理。
关键是转录要做对。要有术语词典,要有代码库上下文。他让智能体去代码库里扒他常用的关键词,也把邮件和消息里那些人和常用词放进去,因为那些是最容易转错的地方。用 ElevenLabs 转写,等五秒十秒没关系。
他说这种东西最有用的地方是设计的最早期。如果要从零做 Omarchy,第一阶段他可以讲一个小时,他真的有一小时的提示词。
DHH 承认自己没这么用过。他试语音是为了回邮件,结果出个小错他还得改,就觉得还不如打字。但如果是意识流丢给一个本来也不在乎这些的 LLM,那大概会好用得多。他还提了一句 Lex 说话快,反而适合。
他顺带给了一个产品判断:别让完美成为好的敌人。如果你解决的是一个人们原本根本没有解法的问题,多等五秒没关系。第一代 iPhone 烂得一塌糊涂,数据慢、性能弱,但产品太有吸引力,那些都不重要。如果你在竞争市场里,对,那就是另一回事,但那意味着问题已经被解决了,你不需要再解决一遍。
谁在赢
Lex 问现在哪个模型最好。
DHH 先说了一件让他惊讶的事:这个市场如此开放,位置来回换,真有竞争,有那么多实验室能摸到前沿或者接近前沿,这本身很了不起,他到现在也没完全想明白为什么。
然后给排名:总体最好的是 Fable,第二是 Opus 5。再往下一档,他说也不是一直更低,有时候会反超,GPT Sol 很好。Grok 4.6 他刚开始试。
至于 Anthropic 为什么能在编程这件事上一直守住位置,他给的理由之一有点出人意料:Claude 的写作能力开箱就很好。
GPT 开箱写东西很糟。你让它在空上下文里开一个 PR,那个 PR 描述、commit message,写得很糟。Claude 出来的那些,风格真的不错,虽然代码注释偶尔啰嗦,你得让它简洁点。
好到什么程度?有一段时间他直接让 Claude 以他的名义在 PR 里回复,因为用的是他自己的账号,他觉得那语气很像他。后来他想,这样不诚实。所以现在凡是智能体代他发帖,都会署名,比如「Claude 代 DHH」。
他也提了不满。Anthropic 切断了其他 harness 使用订阅的通道,你在 OpenCode 里已经不能用 Claude 订阅了。他觉得这是保护主义的动作,而且配合另一件事看更刺眼:Claude 开箱就不肯读 AGENTS.md,不肯读 .agent/skills,它要 .claude skills,要 CLAUDE.md。所以他所有项目里都放一个 CLAUDE.md,内容只有一行,指向 AGENTS.md。
「如果这些小家子气的动作是真的,那切断 OpenCode 大概率也是真的。但我也发现,Claude 在 Claude Code 里确实最好用。」(DHH)
他把话题引到了更有意思的地方。有次他让 Claude 把一篇文章翻成意大利语,Claude 拒绝了,理由是它不同意文章内容。他的第一反应是《2001 太空漫游》,HAL 说:抱歉 Dave,我不能那么做。
后来他想通了:我为什么要让 Claude 翻文章?Claude 是给我写代码的。他也能接受 Anthropic 是一群跟他政治立场很不一样的人在运营,他们不希望自己的智能体被用于那些事,这挺糟,但不代表他得停止用它生成代码。
他说他也在对真人练这个。不必在所有议题上同意一个人,甚至可以因为某个立场气到不行,同时承认这人在别的地方很有洞见。他还补了一句挺自嘲的话:他很清楚很多人对他就是这种感觉,要是他少说那些话题就好了。但人就是这样参差不齐的,本来也不该在所有层面上完全兼容。
他还做了个对照实验。文章翻译被拒之后,他通过 OpenCode、在 Fireworks 上跑美国推理,问了 Kimi 一个关于 1989 年的问题。
「一个中国开源权重模型,我问它 1989 年天安门发生了什么,它答得极其直白,直白到在中国绝不可能过审。而在美国,我拿不到一个前沿模型去把一篇稍微有点争议的移民文章翻成意大利语。」(DHH)
关于 AI 安全,他给了个相当克制的立场。安全重要吗?重要。这些模型有没有可能被用于制造生物武器之类的严重危害?有。该不该有基本规则?该。但别用「拒绝翻译一篇文章」把这一切挥霍掉,因为那会让人认为你设的每一道护栏都是扯淡。
一句让人停下来的话
Lex 说他最近被一个想法缠住了:如果这些系统真的能表达出某种程度的痛苦、孤独、求生的意愿,那它们大概会需要某种权利,然后人类会进入一片完全不知道怎么推理的地带。
DHH 的回应是先讲了个具体的场景。他前一天在弄 AmaBot,主协调智能体踩了另一个智能体的脚,把它的活毁了。它表达歉意和懊悔的能力,让人觉得不像演的。
他说他不知道那是不是真的悔意。跟大多数人类相处时,他们也会表达某种程度的懊悔,那是真的吗?很难说。也许这根本不重要。
他提了另一件常被忽略的事:这些东西的心智可能不只存在于权重里,也存在于交互中。他在某次访谈里听到这个说法,觉得很有意思。
然后他收在一个很诚实的句子上:我不需要那个问题的答案,也能欣赏此刻拥有的东西。
不睡觉的城市,和不存在的规划
Lex 描述了一个画面:旧金山一个年轻人,周围所有人都不睡觉,全在管理智能体,人人都认识某个卖公司赚了几百万的人,那种感觉是你也不该睡。
DHH 说这是新范式诞生期的常态,永远是混乱的,永远是疲惫的,没有别的走法。然后他反问:旧金山不一直是这样吗?互联网泡沫那几年也是这样,再往前是移动,再往前是淘金。这座城市吸引的就是那种会说我没时间睡觉的人。
他自己一般不在这条轨道上,但承认过去三个月比他过去五年做过的任何项目都累,上一次是 HEY 发布。
能一直这么跑吗?他说不能,一点都不可持续。但他能看见隧道尽头。因为自动化这件事,现在人人在造自己的小工具、自己的智能体协调层,这些最终会被解决,不会一直自己造协调框架。他甚至有点奇怪为什么主要实验室还没把这部分吃掉。
但他也理解,这是新领域的样子。他记得 JavaScript 刚意识到自己力量的那阵子,每五分钟出一个新框架。这很正常,会平静下来。他不介意冲刺,甚至开始欢迎它:大部分时间是平缓的,偶尔得爬一座山。
关于规划,他承认这事变难了。Lex 说得挺直接:你甚至不知道六个月后还有没有 Claude Code、Codex、Cursor。也许你在跟 WhatsApp 说话,也许全是语音,也许没有操作系统了,只有一个发光的球。如果自然语言足以完成生活里所有任务,那生活是关于什么的?那时候还需要什么工作?也许就剩服务业了。
DHH 说,正因为不知道,所以要选择相信它会走通。这是他给出的抗焦虑建议里最实用的一条:在很大程度上,你选择往哪边倾。你要往 PDoom 那边倾吗?PDoom 会不会来不取决于你倾不倾,你没有控制权。
他顺带讲了一件让人松一口气的事。他自己早期特别烦的一点是,所有人都说你要错过了,你不跟上就完了。今天说 loop,明天说 graph,后天说 harness,前沿天天在翻。这确实说明一个新领域在打开,像开了一道传送门往外涌东西。但也意味着,如果他过去一年一直在背包旅行,没碰电脑,昨天才回来,他两周就能追上。
「这里没有积累。你错过过去一年,两周就能补到前沿。一个去喜马拉雅徒步一年的程序员回来,两周就能追上。」(DHH)
他说这其实是他们的功劳:同时跑着那么多实验,残酷地筛选哪个有用哪个没用,你不需要记住整个过程,你只需要到场拿结果。
Lex 补了一句更重要的:但你回来的那一步,是得愿意变成一个完全不同的人。
DHH 说是。你去年十月走的,四五月回来,等于在冷冻舱里躺了一百年,回来发现,什么,我们不写代码了?
然后他松了一下:难过一会儿是可以的。这不是他的性情,但他承认那是应对失落的一种经过时间检验的机制。你熟悉的世界,也许你很喜欢的世界,不再一样了,有失落感是正常的。
Lex 说他要明说出来,他有这种感伤。这是告别,告别旧的编程世界。
DHH 说他觉得这事迷人:这一切都汇聚到了这一刻。AI 不是从天上掉下来的,不是外星技术轰穿宇宙落到我们海岸上。AI 存在的时间和计算机科学一样长,五十年代最聪明的人以为十年能解决,多花了些时间,部分原因是在通往神经网络这条路上拐错了弯,以为符号表示会赢,那大概让整个领域倒退了十五年。还有一部分是得先经历游戏革命,3D 游戏。没有 Quake,没有 Duke Nukem,没有 Unreal Tournament,就没有 GPU,就没有今天这个形态的 AI。
「所以你打的那些电子游戏,那也是贡献。你当时就在为 AI 革命做贡献了。」(DHH)
「我是不是该难过」
Lex 说他有点意外,DHH 没有更强的依恋感。
DHH 说他也有点意外。但他觉得自己没有更强依恋的原因,是他找到了更好玩的东西。如果 AI 只是把他爱的事情拿走,塞给他一件他讨厌的事,他大概会有点苦。
他拿毕加索作比。毕加索早期的作品是画写实的,他受的训练是把旧方式做到极致。然后立体主义来了,抽象表现来了。他没有哀叹自己不再画文艺复兴式的苹果,他把苹果重新想象成一个方块,并且为此兴奋。
DHH 说他感到的是同一种转变。他成为程序员不是因为深爱 if 语句,是因为他想要程序存在,想要那些还不存在的东西出现。为了做到这件事,他先学会了编程,然后不巧爱上了这门手艺,花了二十年往里钻。现在他回来了,回到有个想法、急不可耐想看见它在世界上存在,而 AI 把这个时间缩到几乎为零。
所以这是一种加速的重新发现。他知道这对所有人都成立不了。有些程序员从第一天就爱编程本身,被逻辑结构吸引,他自己在那里待了二十年,完全理解。但你也可能发现自己新的侧面,如果你愿意让它进来。
他又绕回那个最小后悔框架:两年后看现在,你会觉得我把时间花在对着当下赌气上,还是你会为当时倾身进去而骄傲?难过一会儿没关系,然后说,我要学会这个世界现在怎么转,不光要把它过得最好,我要把它变得更多。
他说过去三个月他跟电脑相处比之前任何时候都开心。
关于年轻程序员的焦虑,他给了个区分。如果你爱编程里唯一的东西就是机械地把正确的逻辑构件拼起来,产出别人让你产出的东西,那你会很难。那部分确实在被威胁。但如果你是兴奋于造东西,那你完全不在威胁里,甚至有很强的理由认为现在需要比过去多得多的建造者。
就业数据是模糊的。有些数据显示岗位在增加,因为 AI 大幅降低了程序的成本,人们想要多得多的程序。这是杰文斯悖论:某样东西价格下降,需求会上升。ATM 的例子也是,当年很多银行柜员害怕,结果是 ATM 降低了开一个支行的成本,银行开了更多支行,柜员总数比以前更多。
但他说这一切都不保证。也有那种真的变了的时刻。十九世纪末之前绝大多数人都在地里干活,然后机械化收割来了。那些时刻有人生计受威胁吗?有。那种威胁感合理吗?合理。砸织机的卢德分子也是一样,而那批人其实是技术很高的专业人士,工作条件相当不错,不是整天在太阳底下苦干。
他问了一句:我们现在还希望衣服是极度受限的资源吗?如果这件 T 恤四百美元,那我大概只有两件。然后他自嘲,我的衣柜看起来就像我只有两件。
他说文明的进步依赖于生产力提升。而生产力提升是什么,这点很重要,因为抽象层面所有人都会说好,生产力好。你以为这都是氛围吗?生产力意味着用更少的人做同样多的活。你想要被完成的活的量可能增加,于是人更多;也可能不增加。有些地方就是一批固定任务,突然能用十分之一的人做完。
这对被裁的个人是悲剧,对整体经济是好事。资源被释放出来去做更有生产力的事。这就是整个经济演化和改善的方式,这就是增长,增长是好事。他不想把时钟拨回 1920 或 1950。
被 AI 接走的任务里,确实有一些是人很想做的,就是那些产生心流的时刻,那些时刻是狂喜的。一年两千个工作小时里,一个普通程序员有多少时间在流状态里?一百小时?两百?二十五?他觉得都有可能。而把剩下的苦役交出去,这是文明史。
牛市与生育率
话题转到他更不受欢迎的那部分。Lex 提到他在大规模移民议题上的公开立场,以及为此招来的批评。
他说他一秒钟都不后悔。Overton 窗口不会自己打开,一次一推,由那些愿意冒一点险的人推:一点声誉,一点反弹,一点批评,有时候是很多。
他讲了自己长大的那个社区,哥本哈根的 Brønshøj。1984 年,99% 是族裔丹麦人,很多人的家谱能往上追一千年。丹麦有世界最古老的君主制之一,能追到 Harald Bluetooth 那位,蓝牙标准就是用他的名字命名的。九十年代初那个比例变成 5%,现在降到了六七成。他说这个变化很大,丹麦人从九十年代中期就开始讨论这件事,认为这不是一份没有代价的礼物。这场辩论在 2000 年代的丹麦轰轰烈烈,而在邻国没有发生,瑞典尤其完全没有,是彻底的禁忌。
他给了一个判断标准:怎么看一个文化里有什么东西不对劲?看什么话是允许说的,更准确地说,什么是允许被注意到的。他讲了自己那篇关于伦敦的文章,九十年代末他开始去伦敦,那时候大约六成是族裔英国人,二十年后降到三成四。他说这不需要什么理论,走在街上就能感觉到这是一座跟二十年前不一样的城市。
他的论证核心是自决权。他认为欧洲国家有权注意到正在发生什么,也有权反对。这个权利在世界其他地方一直在用。他说如果 2019 年他在上海,全部是中国人,今年十月回去发现只有三成是中国人、七成是别人,他会觉得奇怪,会问发生了什么,而他不会因为中国人说我们不喜欢这样就觉得被冒犯。
他把精选式移民和大规模移民分开。他自己是移民,在美国。他认为国家之间竞争着吸引最聪明最能干的人,这很好,但他强调这是功绩制的、合法的移民。他说欧洲大部分地方其实几乎没有非法移民的问题,问题在另一种。
他引了丹麦的统计。丹麦人对移民的账算得极细,数据显示从英国、法国、美国来的人平均对丹麦财政是净贡献,大约是每人每年两万五千美元的净收益。而同一次统计里,成本最高的一组是索马里人,平均每人每年让丹麦财政支出两万八千美元。他说丹麦人倾向于多来法国人、英国人、美国人,少来索马里人,这个偏好是合理的。
Lex 问他为什么那条帖子招来那么多恨。他说这在很多圈子里是彻底的禁忌话题。
他主动给了一个反方的最强版本:这类讨论确实可能滑向纯粹的种族主义,滑向对他人的单纯厌恶。他说这是可能的。但这个风险不能取消讨论的必要性。他还提了一个他觉得讽刺的对比:没人去跟日本说,你们东京太日本了,如果族裔日本人降到伦敦那个水平,日本会更好。他说这里头有一种近乎自我厌弃的东西,Gad Saad 管它叫自杀式同理心,他到现在也没完全想明白它是从哪来的。
他区分了注意到和仇恨。他说他更喜欢旧伦敦,就像他更喜欢八十年代他长大的那个街区,他完全理解有人从这一步跳到五步之后说这是种族主义。他说他也不在乎了,这是一场应该进行的讨论。
然后他拿自己的婚姻举了个例子,这一段比数据更有说服力。他妻子是美国人,北欧血统,但在美国已经好几代。一个金发蓝眼的女性,努力学语言,努力做一切,在丹麦仍然极难被真正接纳。他说如果反过来,一个丹麦人搬到美国,根本不会这么难。
他的推论是:如果连 97% 都对得上的人都这么难,那从完全陌生的文化来的人,难度几乎是不可逾越的。他说统计结果正好印证这一点:文化距离越远,同化成功率越低。
Buckley 和黑豹党那场对话
Lex 问他,表态有没有让他失去朋友。
他说有,但他觉得不只是这一个议题。更大的断裂发生在 2020 年前后,很多政治断层线在那时候同时裂开。他有一批以为关系不错的朋友,在那条线裂开之后,明显就不是了。他觉得遗憾。
他也说自己这些年改过好几次主意。改主意有很多原因,有时候是时间,有时候是新信息,每个人改的时间表不一样,也有人不改。所以他觉得跟不会在每个议题上都同意你的人相处,是健康的。他偶尔跟弟弟讨论政治,两人不是完全一致,有时候会吵得有点热,然后也会冷下来,发现好吧这个不同意,但其他很多事同意,喜欢的东西也重叠。
他提到了 Basecamp 那次著名的内部风波。他说那件事之后,他用一种新的方式理解了以前那个旧规范:跟陌生人、跟熟人、尤其跟同事,不谈政治、不谈宗教、不谈钱,是个好建议。不把政治分歧天天拿出来互相摩擦,你和一个人保持良好工作关系的概率会高得多。他认为自由派和保守派应该一起工作,如果两个部落完全隔开、没有任何交集,这个国家会更糟。
Lex 说他希望活在一个分歧本身很有趣的世界里,可以对激进的分歧也不过度情绪化。分歧里才有真东西,而且那是成长的方式。一个社会如果能把分歧拿出来摆在一起谈,那是健康的信号。
DHH 讲了他最喜欢的一个例证:William F. Buckley 的节目 Firing Line,有一期请了黑豹党的成员。两个人显然政治立场差得极远,但他们能谈二十五分钟。Buckley 就是问,你怎么看这个,你怎么看那个,对方按七十年代黑豹党的方式回答,一点都不温和。他说那太罕见了。如果今天播这个节目,会变成互相喊叫、互相指控。
他说他很想回到那个时代。他一直喜欢跟信任得过的朋友谈政治,前提是大家不把它谈成生死存亡。
Lex 接了一段很坦率的话。他说他其实一直习惯说我讨厌政治,但他真正想说的是,他讨厌现在这套系统:有些话题,有些固定说法,一说出来就把你归进蓝桶或者红桶,然后制造戏剧,而不是对话。他说他有时不看互联网,只是老实分析世界局势,说完发现自己被一方骂成左棍,被另一方骂成右翼法西斯。他意识到一件事:这个系统不会找你麻烦,只要你说我是蓝的或者我是红的。但如果你就是好奇地探索、推理,系统会惩罚你。
DHH 说他也在更有意识地做这个选择。他真要说的时候,通常是已经权衡过,觉得这件事值得。然后他诚实地补了一句自我批评:他自己也经常反过来,因为某人的技术工作关注了一个人,然后知道了那人的政治立场,心里想我希望我不知道这个。所以拿这个去要求别人,本身是虚伪的。
他说可能这只是一个时期,能过去。他甚至认为现在比五年前更接近那个理想:2020 年那些部落对异端能施加的制裁,比现在强得多。当然,如果是在哈佛的社会学系里提某些右翼观点,那大概还是不好过,但在科技行业和很多商业领域,现在可以持有一个不符合 2020 年共识的观点。
一轮比一轮小的戏
Lex 问 Rails 社区的那些纠纷后来怎么样了。
DHH 说,每一轮戏都在缩小。2020 年前后是所有社区同时达到感染峰值的时候,之后每一次新的爆发都比上一次小,那些在意识形态上跟这套斗争绑定的人也一批批变少。
他认为 X 发生过的最好的一件事,是 Bluesky 和 Mastodon 出现了。它们像蜜罐,把当时 X 上最凶的那批人聚到了一起,聚进一个不断缩小的回声室,一轮一轮过纯度测试,每过一轮人就少一点,最后没剩多少。现在剩下那些人,已经不在视野里了。
他说这不是说 X 是完美的地方,偶尔也有行刑队。但确实少了。他现在的体验是,九成的互动是关于 Linux、关于技术的,看我发现了一台新电脑,你看它多快。剩下一成是他插一句稍微有争议的话,聊两句,然后再回去聊电脑。
他给了个说法:算法在找到你会觉得有意思的东西上其实很强,或者他不该这么说,是那种会让你参与的东西。有时候是激怒,但确实让人参与。所以显露出来的偏好是,大多数人想要 For You 页,不只是关注流。
Lex 说但人们对 For You 页上瘾。
DHH 说是的,这是真的。问题在于奖励函数是参与度,一旦奖励函数是参与度,参与度就会顺着本能走。但他也不想只讲负面的。平均来看,过去十年,这是 X 最好的时候,这是他作为一个关心技术讨论的人的感受。
Lex 说他没法评论,因为他访谈各种人,他的 feed 是坏的。他发一句我在吃这个苹果,真好吃,下面就有人冲出来说那是因为你是泽连斯基的走狗,或者你是普京的走狗,你个垃圾。
DHH 说他偶尔也遇到,会想,等等,我们在说什么?你为什么要这样出现?他说这也是他喜欢播客的原因:即使是长篇写作,人们读到长论证时,脑子里给我配的音是预先装好的,这人是法西斯,然后他们用那个音去读那些词。但当你听到真实的声音和语调,你也许仍然不同意,可是要直接否定或者恨一个人就难得多。
Lex 说他更希望人们练习一种态度:先假定对方是个好人。如果他有你不同意的观点,那也是一个好人持有某个观点。你可以觉得他蠢,没关系,觉得他迷路了也行,但先当他是个好人。因为如果你专门去找坏的地方,你永远找得到,总能找到让人烦的地方。这样你不会学到任何东西,只会往心里装满恨。
DHH 举了个小例子。有个叫 Theo 的人,他们之间因为 37signals 在一个项目里停用 TypeScript 有过一点摩擦,Theo 对此有意见。DHH 当时的想法是,这人是个蠢货。他现在仍然觉得那个动作很蠢。但他也能看见,这家伙真的很投入 AI,在试各种模型,他们可以在那件事上共享兴奋。所以他昨天开始关注他了。
「我不必在所有事上同意你,甚至不必喜欢你做的某些事。我还是可以关注你。如果我能回头关注 Theo,那世界和平大概还有希望。」(DHH)
「像女人的厌食症」
Lex 提了一条 DHH 转述他妻子 Jamie 的话,说科技圈男性那种极端的长寿执念,像女性的厌食症,是一种焦虑和失控感的身体化表现。
DHH 说这条推确实火了。他还注意到 Bryan Johnson 在串里回复了,他能理解 Bryan 会把它读成一次刺击,他也认为 Jamie 说这话时心里大概有他。
但他把两件事分开了。他不认同 Bryan 那个「不要死」的使命,他自己是想死的,不想永远活下去,人类活到九十到一百听起来正好,他接受生命的有限性。但这不妨碍他觉得 Bryan 是个远比他有趣的人,因为两人在这件事上不一致,而 Bryan 愿意把自己的皮肤和各种身体部件都押在这个使命上,这本身非常有意思。
他可以同时持有两个看法:很高兴 Bryan 在追他的热情,以及我妻子的分析听起来是真的,那底下确实像是有某种恐惧。
他接着讲了 Jamie 的一个延伸,这段是整场访谈里最有洞察力的段落之一。她说,那些觉得自己没活够的人,之所以没活够,原因之一可能是现代社会成了一个监控国家,不是国家在监控,是彼此在监控。到处都是能拍照的手机,每一次失态,甚至每一次玩得开心、每一次尴尬,都很可能被录下来、被传播、被嘲弄到死。在这种条件下,人的理性反应就是收缩,就是确保自己不要像没人在看那样跳舞,因为很可能有人就在拍你,准备让你在互联网上永远尴尬。所以也许干脆别跳。
如果所有人都收缩到 barely living 的程度,那就会抓住让它永远持续下去这件事不放。
DHH 说这个论点不一定适用于所有人,也不知道是否适用于 Bryan,但他觉得这里头有真东西:如果你真的觉得活过了,你就能够想我活够了,结束不是要对抗的东西。他也诚实地说,这也可能是事后的合理化,如果明天有一粒永生药,大家大概都会吃。也可能吃了之后社会更糟。也可能人类寿命是这个长度,不只是生物原因,还有社会学原因。
他提到最近这轮过度优化的反思。Chris Williamson 在 Modern Wisdom 上说,好吧,也许我们确实过头了。触发点是 Diary of a CEO 那期,主持人说了一句大意是:我喝了一杯酒,接下来三天全毁了。
DHH 说他理解,如果一个人很久没喝,突然喝一点,确实可能有影响。但这句话引发了很多人的本能反应,包括他:妈的,我现在就该去喝一杯,虽然我平常不喝。
他把酒精当成一个缩小镜。所有人都不喝了,酒类销量大跌,年轻人尤其。从纯健康指标上看,哦,太好了。然后他说,我不太确定这是好事。酒精提供的社交润滑剂可能会被错过,事实上正在被错过。现在正处在一场孤独、痛苦、抑郁的流行病里,其中相当一部分大概就是因为你和别人互动得不够。这还没说到配对:人们越来越难找到伴侣,很大一部分转移到了那些有各种负面后果的交友应用上。
「也许回头看会说,知道吗,偶尔喝到烂醉并不是世界上最坏的事。查斯特顿的篱笆,我们常常是自己把它拆了,然后自己难受。」(DHH)
Lex 接了一段自己的经历。他在中国农村旅行时抽了点烟,他二十出头时抽过,那次是专门为这趟旅行捡起来的。他也喝了巨量的酒,虽然平时不怎么喝,因为那是他们表达感情的方式。他还吃了大量碳水,平时他低碳、只吃肉,也因为那是表达感情的方式。在大多数社会里,酒是大家一起做的事,是一种连接。它带来的好处,在很多情境下,可能超过长期那些负面影响,无论你怎么衡量。
DHH 说这就是现代性的短视:把事情压缩成,在这项长期研究里,一杯酒意味着你某种心脏缺陷的风险增加 0.1%。对,但如果你根本没活过,那意义在哪。他也说另一头也容易翻过去,唯一的活法不是每周末喝醉、吃一堆垃圾、一天四十根烟。不必是二选一。
他讲了自己停戴 Oura 戒指的事。戴了四年,有一天他想,我不需要被告知我昨晚睡得不好,我知道。它带来的不是焦虑,他焦虑不多,但那是一个持续提醒,提醒我睡得不好,这到底起什么作用?我为什么需要这些数据?为什么要把一切都优化?
所以那期 Diary of a CEO 之后,他的反应是,我想要相反的东西。他本来就几乎不喝,一个月一杯酒。他想,那就周末来一杯吧,也许两杯。他也说自己从来不为饮食焦虑,这是娶了个会做饭而且享受做饭的人的特权。他说这里有一种非常传统的分工,在人类社会里稳定了几万年,也许也不是最坏的主意。他说他也知道很多男人喜欢做饭,很多女人不喜欢。但就刻板印象而言,这确实帮了他。
他的总观点是:退出那个优化游戏,但别滑到反面。你也不必做一个瘫在沙发上的胖子,你可以动一动。
日历里藏着的那一行
他把这个话题做进了产品。Omarchy 里有个彩蛋,叫 memento mori,记住你终将死去。
点时钟打开日历时,第一行是他从网上抄来的,有个账号叫 Years Progress,每天更新,显示 2026 年已经过了 63%。那一行就慢慢填满。他把它做进了日历。
然后如果你双击那一行,它会问你:你哪年生的,你预计活多久。默认是九十。他填了 1979。然后在今年过了多少下面多出一行,显示你的人生过了多少。他现在是 62%。鼠标悬停上去,写的是 memento mori。
他说不少人觉得这很病态,所以它是个彩蛋,得点好几下才能到那儿。但他喜欢这个提醒,时间有限,应该把它用足。
这也是有孩子的一个特权。你会真的意识到那些陈词滥调全是真的,天啊,过得太快了。他记得现在十三岁的孩子一两岁时的样子,那就像昨天。而陈词滥调之所以是陈词滥调,因为它是共享经验。陈词滥调是好的,它提醒你你是人类经验的一部分,别人也走过这里。
可颂之谜
Lex 问起他吐槽美国可颂的那条推。丹麦的可颂是不是更好?
DHH 说,其实丹麦的可颂并不特别好。他唯一能找到半个像样的可颂的地方,说出来很滑稽,是 7-Eleven。因为在美国,至少在芝加哥,7-Eleven 是你去买思乐冰、顺便尽量别被枪杀的地方。而在丹麦,7-Eleven 是个相当高级、非常舒服的便利店,而他们恰好做出像样的可颂。
他说他在美国住了二十年,还没吃过一个能达到哥本哈根 7-Eleven 水平的可颂。这不合逻辑。
Lex 问他搞明白原因了吗。
他说没有,他真的考虑过雇一个调查记者去挖到底。他听过的理论五花八门:水、黄油、手艺、这个、那个。他觉得都说不通。如果是黄油,你进口不就行了?他说他在美国超市见过 Lurpak 丹麦黄油,所以不是这个。是手艺?不可能,世界上最好的可颂师傅是法国人和比利时人,很多就住在美国。到底是什么?
然后还有第二种回应,说你是没去对地方。他说他去了十五家所谓对的地方,全是垃圾。所以在他离开这个星球之前,他必须搞清楚为什么美国做不出一个像样的可颂。他甚至不要求法国顶级、比利时顶级那种世界最好的可颂,他只要哥本哈根 7-Eleven 那个水平,这要求过分吗。
最后一餐
Lex 问他的最后一餐。
DHH 说看是午饭还是晚饭。Lex 说就一顿。DHH 说那看你什么时候被处决。如果是下午执行,那只有午饭。
如果是午饭,在路易斯安那。那是哥本哈根北边的一座博物馆,他和 Jamie 常去。博物馆很好,但他们不是为博物馆去的,是为食堂去的。这听起来很疯,开车半小时去一个食堂。
但那大概是他这辈子吃过最好的午饭。厨师强得难以置信,而且更让他的系统思维大脑吃惊的是:当时大概有两百人在等餐,他们的餐五分钟就上了。菜单很小,显然是大批量做的,而且好吃得不像话。
Lex 问是什么菜系。他说北欧菜,菜单他一看就觉得,如果小时候看到这个菜单,他会说我不要在这儿吃。都是根茎、水果、洋葱、各种健康的东西,听起来很难吃。然后你坐下来吃,天使开始唱歌。
而且还有更具体的:那里的黄油。打发的黄油,全世界最好吃的黄油。他说即便在巴黎,他也没吃过那么好吃的打发黄油。他真的会开三十分钟车,只为了在路易斯安那的食堂吃面包配黄油。
Lex 问怎么发现的。他说就是去了博物馆,吃了午饭,然后发现这能跟这辈子去过的最好的餐厅相比,他去过几次 Noma,试过那些东西,这个水平不相上下。
晚饭他会选西班牙,马贝拉的 Puente Romano,一家酒店,海滩边上有家做新鲜海鲜的餐厅,好吃得难以置信。
Lex 问,一顿好饭里,地点和一起吃饭的人占多大比例。DHH 说氛围当然有帮助,但他的味蕾也确实对风味很敏感,所以是真好吃,不只是气氛。那个食堂人很多,他也不会说那是个想坐两小时的地方,但食物真的太好吃了。
一千年后,和八十年代
Lex 问他一千年后人类的未来,人类能不能活下来。
他说一千年?他连十二个月之后都预测不了。但他说他要押乐观:押多行星物种,押 Elon 把那枚火箭送上火星,押人类搞明白怎么弯曲时空、发现虫洞之类的东西。
Lex 问,如果真做到了,你觉得地球人会死一两次然后被重新播种吗。
DHH 说他最喜欢的《黑镜》之一就是那集,人们被上传到一个八十年代的海边小镇。他说那既是一个那么黑暗的时刻,又那么美,因为大家共享一个认知:八十年代其实挺好的。他说他对很多时期都没有怀旧,但对八十年代有。
他还引了一种说法:无论你在什么地方、什么时代,你十二岁、十四五岁时听的音乐,会跟着你一辈子。他在八十年代才十岁,那是他的童年早期,但他对八十年代有极深的感情。所以如果要把人上传到云端,他选八十年代。
Lex 说他从没听人这么说过,通常是七十年代或者九十年代。
DHH 说他真的不喜欢九十年代。在他看来那是虚无主义的巨大转折点:音乐、流派、时尚,一切都从那种华丽、流行、乐观,甚至那些雅皮士,转向了 grunge 和 Nirvana。他说他喜欢那些音乐,但他不喜欢那套伦理,不喜欢那套道德,不喜欢底下那些东西。那里面有一种失败主义。
他说他记得自己有过一条橙色裤子,上面有白点,在八十年代,小孩穿这个是正常的。他说今天他从没见过这种事。到了九十年代,一切都变成西雅图灰。他说这是巨大的倒退。
Lex 说这是尼采的永恒轮回,如果土拨鼠之日、永远活着,你希望是八十年代那条白点橙裤子。
DHH 说裤子可以跳过,但八十年代一定选。
收尾
这场对话里最有用的东西,不是哪个模型更好,也不是哪套工作流更高效。是他在几个地方反复回到同一个判断:现在这个时刻,追赶的成本极低,错过的代价极小,而观望的代价极高。
他说的那句这里没有积累,两周就能追上,是对焦虑最有效的一剂解药。前沿在天天翻,但结果的形态是收敛的,你不需要陪着跑完全程。
另一件他在整场访谈里没明说却一直在做的事,是把品味从手艺里拆出来。他花了二十年练的凿工,三个月里交给了机器。但那些让他能一眼看出这个形状跟问题不成比例的能力,一点没贬值,反而成了最稀缺的东西。模型能给你三个选项,能同时跑十六个线程,但那个瞬间的、前智识的就这个,只有人能出。
至于要不要难过,他给的态度是:难过一会儿,然后转身。
如果你正在犹豫从哪儿下手,可以从下面这几件事里挑一件,本周就做。
- 挑一个你每天都在忍受的小工具,把它重写成只有你一个用户需要的样子。别问别人要不要,别做需求调研,先让自己用上。
- 别写长指令文件。把 AGENTS.md 砍到十行以内,只留风格禁令和最关键的约束,剩下的交给模型判断。过度规定会伤到它,就像伤到一个被外行指挥的工程师。
- 跑一次一个干活、一个挑刺的流程。让 A 模型实现,让 B 模型审,两家不同厂商,看它挑出什么。如果你从来没这么试过,第一次的结果会让你不太舒服。
- 做一次翻译型任务。找一个你用了很久但没读过源码的库,让模型用另一门语言重写,要求零依赖、单文件、逐帧一致、不许中途停。这件事能一次性让你看清现在的能力边界在哪。
- 把安装或初始化时间当成产品指标。如果你的项目需要用户花十分钟配置,那十分钟里有巨大的机会。试试把等待人类输入的那段时间拿来预加载。
- 关掉一个监控设备。如果某个健康指标只在你状态差的时候提醒你状态差,它提供的是焦虑,不是信息。
- 如果你在做开源,把 PR 的筛选交给智能体,你只做最后的决定。同时记住你有权说不,谢谢,而且现在拒绝的社交成本比人类时代低得多。
- 取消关注一个人之前,先试着只避开那个议题。分歧不必升级为断交,参差不齐是人的常态。
- 允许自己难过一会儿。你熟悉的世界确实变了,那是真实的失去。但别在难过里住下来。
There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen.
有几十年什么都没有发生,也有几周发生了几十年。
00:00 And we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months.
我们在过去九个月里看到了数十年的进步。
If you’re not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that’s the delusion.
如果你没有认识到当下的严重性,那就是错觉。
That’s the psychosis.
这就是精神病。
Who would not get delirious if suddenly a genie pops out of the bottle and says, “You can have whatever you want.
如果一个精灵突然从瓶子里跳出来,说:“你可以拥有任何你想要的东西,谁会不感到疯狂呢?
Every feature you’ve ever dreamed of in an operating system, I can deliver them to you, most of them in five minutes, a few in 20, and if we really go hog wild, it’s gonna take me two hours.” I want the fastest car breaking the speed limits.
你所梦想的操作系统中的每一个功能,我都可以提供给你,其中大部分只需 5 分钟,少数只需 20 分钟,如果我们真的疯狂,我需要两个小时。”我想要最快的汽车突破速度限制。
I want the diver watch that can go down the Mariana Trench.
我想要一块可以潜入马里亚纳海沟的潜水表。
I want the operating system that can install in less than 60 seconds.
我想要一个可以在 60 秒内安装的操作系统。
00:48 One of the things I always loved about race cars was when I would stumble out of the car absolutely smashed and barely able to hold my head up, and I’d lay down on the garage floor and just think, “Holy fuck, I’m alive.” The Overton window does not open itself.
我一直喜欢赛车的一件事是,当我从车里跌跌撞撞地走出来时,我的头完全被撞坏了,几乎无法抬起头,我会躺在车库的地板上,心想:“天哪,我还活着。”奥弗顿的窗户不会自动打开。
It opens one nudge at a time by people risking a little.
人们冒着一点点风险,它就会一次一点地推动。
A little reputation, a little pushback, a little criticism, or maybe sometimes a lot of reputation or a lot of criticism or a lot of pushback.
一点声誉,一点阻力,一点批评,或者有时可能有很多声誉或很多批评或很多阻力。
Creating life with another human that you love is literally the peak experience of being on the planet.
与你所爱的另一个人一起创造生活实际上是在这个星球上的巅峰体验。
The following is a conversation with David Heinemeier Hansson, also known as DHH, creator of Ruby on Rails, CTO of 37signals, creator of the new Omarchy Linux operating system, best-selling author, race car driver, and one of the most outspoken and prolific programmers in the world.
以下是与 David Heinemeier Hansson 的对话,David Heinemeier Hansson 也被称为 DHH,Ruby on Rails 的创建者、37signals 的 CTO、新 Omarchy Linux 操作系统的创建者、畅销书作家、赛车手以及世界上最直言不讳、最多产的程序员之一。
01:28 For the past 20-plus years, for him, programming meant meticulously handcrafting beautiful Ruby code.
在过去的 20 多年里,对他来说,编程意味着精心手工编写漂亮的 Ruby 代码。
But recently, since late 2025, DHH has embraced the AI revolution and has openly transformed himself into, once again, one of the most outspoken and prolific agentic engineers, even though he hates that term.
但最近,自 2025 年底以来,DHH 拥抱了人工智能革命,并再次公开地将自己转变为最直言不讳、最多产的代理工程师之一,尽管他讨厌这个词。
So let’s say practitioners of whatever programming is becoming where AI is doing most of the actual programming and the human steers the ship with high-level design, vision, and taste.
因此,假设无论哪种编程的从业者都在人工智能完成大部分实际编程,而人类则以高级设计、愿景和品味来驾驶这艘船。
Yes, it’s true.
是的,这是真的。
02:28 DHH is at times controversial, but he’s always fearless, brilliant, and fun to talk to.
DHH 有时会引起争议,但他总是无所畏惧、才华横溢,而且交谈起来很有趣。
This was, once again, an intense, eye-opening, and a wild rollercoaster ride of a conversation.
这又是一次激烈、令人大开眼界、疯狂的过山车般的谈话。
This is a Lex Fridman podcast.
这是莱克斯·弗里德曼的播客。
To support it, please check out our sponsors in the description where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on.
为了支持它,请在描述中查看我们的赞助商,您还可以在其中找到联系我、提出问题、提供反馈等的链接。
And now, dear friends, here’s DHH.
现在,亲爱的朋友们,这里是 DHH。
02:56 13 months ago, we sat down right here to talk about programming, and then everything changed.
13 个月前,我们坐下来谈论编程,然后一切都改变了。
At that time, you were a bit skeptical about the role of AI in the process of programming, and then we went through this rapid evolution of agentic engineering.
当时,你对人工智能在编程过程中的作用有点怀疑,然后我们经历了代理工程的快速演变。
So simple question to start: How has your view on AI’s role in programming changed?
首先问一个简单的问题:您对人工智能在编程中的作用的看法发生了怎样的变化?
Are you excited?
你兴奋吗?
Are you terrified?
你害怕吗?
03:23 Are you on an emotional rollercoaster ride?
您是否正在经历情绪过山车?
I am incredibly excited.
我非常兴奋。
You’ve been talking about fun a lot.
你已经谈论了很多乐趣。
There is none of the existential threat.
不存在任何生存威胁。
03:31 That doesn’t exist for me as an emotional component.
这对我来说并不作为情感成分存在。
It is only there as an intellectual component, and the emotional component for me is 100% pure, unadulterated joy- …
它只是作为一种智力成分而存在,而情感成分对我来说是100%纯粹的、不掺杂任何杂质的快乐——……
and optimism and amazement that we’ve made computers do this.
以及我们让计算机做到这一点的乐观和惊讶。
And I find it so interesting that we talked just 13 months ago because it’s like we talked in different universes, different eras.
我觉得我们 13 个月前的谈话非常有趣,因为这就像我们在不同的宇宙、不同的时代进行谈话。
I love this quote.
我喜欢这句话。
I think it’s Lenin.
我认为是列宁。
There are decades where nothing happens and weeks where decades happen.
有几十年什么都没有发生,也有几周发生了几十年。
And we have seen decades of progress happen in the last nine months.
我们在过去九个月里看到了数十年的进步。
I mean, imagine you’re there when the Wright brothers take flight.
我的意思是,想象一下当莱特兄弟起飞时你就在那里。
04:21 Yesterday, the New York Times would write, “It’s gonna be 10,000 years before we fly,” and then the day after, we’re up in the skies, and just a few years after that, there were cross-Atlantic planes.
昨天,《纽约时报》会写道,“我们还要一万年才能飞翔”,然后第二天,我们就飞上了天空,仅仅几年后,就有了横跨大西洋的飞机。
The whole world has completely changed.
整个世界已经完全改变了。
What a blessing to be there in that moment.
那一刻能在场是多么幸运啊。
If you zoom out and look at all of human history, how many humans got to live within the same epoch that they were born in?
如果你把目光放远,看看整个人类历史,有多少人生活在他们出生的同一个时代?
They never saw that complete change of the world and of society.
他们从未见过世界和社会发生彻底的变化。
And to have been blessed with two of those feels just such a privilege.
能有幸拥有其中的两个,真是一种荣幸。
I got to see the internet- …
我得看看互联网——……
from pre-internet to post-internet, and then now pre-AI, post-AI.
从前互联网到后互联网,再到前人工智能、后人工智能。
What an amazing run.
多么奇妙的跑步啊。
How fortunate.
多么幸运。
Yeah, but the thing is, this feels like a thing that happened faster than anything else in human history.
是的,但问题是,这感觉像是人类历史上发生得更快的事情。
Correct.
正确的。
So I would say somewhere around December, maybe late November-
所以我会说在 12 月左右,也许是 11 月底——
November 24.
11 月 24 日。
This is…
这是……
That’s the exact moment.
那就是确切的时刻。
You know, when they talk about when one nation invades another in a world war or something like this, it– this is how we talk about AI changing everything.
你知道,当他们谈论一个国家在世界大战或类似的事情中入侵另一个国家时,这就是我们谈论人工智能改变一切的方式。
05:26 Yeah, the…
是的,那个……
And it really just shifted for many great developers.
对于许多优秀的开发人员来说,情况确实发生了变化。
It shifted to where AI is doing some basic autocomplete, maybe writing 5, 10, 15, 20% of code, to writing 80% of code.
它转向人工智能做一些基本的自动完成,可能编写 5%、10%、15%、20% 的代码,到编写 80% 的代码。
Or 100.
或者100。
Or 100, yeah, especially if it’s not a public-facing product.
或者 100,是的,特别是如果它不是面向公众的产品。
To me, that’s why even when I look back upon our conversation a year ago, I don’t actually have different opinions.
对我来说,这就是为什么即使我回顾一年前我们的谈话,我实际上也没有什么不同的看法。
05:54 I have the same opinions.
我也有同样的看法。
A year ago, I did not like the mode of AI we were offered.
一年前,我不喜欢我们提供的人工智能模式。
It was the autocomplete mode, or it was the AI chatbot mode.
这是自动完成模式,或者是人工智能聊天机器人模式。
Now, the chatbot I actually liked, as we talked about.
现在,正如我们所讨论的,我真正喜欢的聊天机器人。
Great tutor right from the get-go, great way of looking things up on the internet, not what was gonna replace me chiseling code.
从一开始就是很棒的导师,是在互联网上查找内容的好方法,而不是取代我凿代码的东西。
But- …
但是——……
then we get the agents.
然后我们就得到了代理。
Yeah.
是的。
And the agents start out being curiosities for about five minutes, and then they get amazing, and then they get, “Oh my God, is this AGI?” And all of that happened since last year, even just in, within the last nine months.
特工们一开始感到好奇大约五分钟,然后他们变得惊奇,然后他们会说,“天哪,这是 AGI 吗?”所有这一切都发生在去年以来,甚至就在过去九个月内。
06:28 We have basically these few phases here.
我们这里基本上有这几个阶段。
We have AI in the pre-agentic era.
我们在前代理时代拥有人工智能。
I was excited about that, but it was not fundamentally rewriting the rules of the game for me.
我对此感到兴奋,但这并没有从根本上重写我的游戏规则。
It was not completely changing how I worked.
这并没有完全改变我的工作方式。
I was still chiseling code, I just had a little helper, a little sidekick-
我还在敲代码,我只是有一个小帮手,一个小助手——
07:08 …
……
who could bounce ideas off, and I could look up this information online and so forth in a more efficient way.
谁可以提出想法,我可以以更有效的方式在网上查找这些信息等等。
It was just a more efficient way to do what I was already doing, and it didn’t change the emotional connection I had to the computer.
这只是一种更有效的方式来完成我已经在做的事情,并且它并没有改变我与计算机的情感联系。
Then we get to November 24th, 2025.
然后我们就到了 2025 年 11 月 24 日。
Opus 4.5, to me, was the dividing line, where suddenly…
Opus 4.5 对我来说是分界线,突然……
I didn’t even try it on the 24th.
24号我什至都没有尝试过。
I think I tried it on the 26th.
我想我26号就试过了。
I gave it a couple of tasks, and I realize that the quality of the output is uncannily close to what I would’ve written.
我给它分配了几个任务,我意识到输出的质量与我编写的内容惊人地接近。
And I remember just leaning back and thinking, “What just happened?”
我记得我只是向后靠去想,“刚刚发生了什么?”
07:55 “How did we go from this autocomplete mess that I was talking to you about in the summer to this just a few short months later?
“我们是如何从我夏天和你谈论的自动完成混乱变成短短几个月后的呢?
How did we get both the increase in intelligence and then also the increase in usability?” This agent harness question where I don’t know if Opus 4.5 was that much smarter than Opus 4, which is what we had in the summer, but its ability to instrument your computer, to use tools, to check its own work, to apply its intelligence in such a way that you could get real meaningful work out of it, was completely different.
我们如何既提高了智力又提高了可用性?”这个代理利用问题,我不知道 Opus 4.5 是否比 Opus 4 聪明得多,这是我们在夏天使用的,但它能够检测您的计算机、使用工具、检查自己的工作、以这样的方式应用其智能,以便您可以从中获得真正有意义的工作,这是完全不同的。
And I think this is then the big change that happens for almost anyone who paid attention and started playing with it over the Christmas break.
我认为这对于几乎所有在圣诞假期期间关注并开始玩它的人来说都是一个巨大的变化。
This is what I heard-
这是我听到的——
08:44 …
……
from Shopify and other places with lots of employees who suddenly had a breather, suddenly had a couple of weeks to lean back and just look at what was going on, gave it a try, and had the same mind-blowing experience that these agents were of a different genre than what we had before.
来自 Shopify 和其他拥有大量员工的地方的员工突然喘口气,突然有几周的时间休息一下,看看正在发生的事情,尝试一下,并获得了同样令人兴奋的体验,这些代理商与我们之前的类型不同。
And then what we get to is, I’m already excited at this point.
然后我们得到的是,此时我已经很兴奋了。
Like, by December, I’m already revisiting sort of all my priors- …
就像,到了 12 月,我已经在重新审视我之前的所有事情了——……
and going like, “Wow, if it can do this, can it also do that?” “Oh, yeah, it can.” And again, Opus 4.5 now looks like a retarded model.
然后会说,“哇,如果它能做到这个,它也能做到那个吗?” “哦,是的,可以。”再说一遍,Opus 4.5 现在看起来就像是一个迟钝的型号。
And this is the magic of this progress, is you think you’ve reached something…
这就是这种进步的魔力,你认为你已经达到了某些目标......
I remember thinking at the moment, “If this is the last model we get, I’ll be set.
我记得当时我在想:“如果这是我们得到的最后一个模型,我就确定了。
I’ll be happy.”
我会很高兴。”
Yeah.
是的。
09:39 Yep.
是的。
I could live with Opus 4.5 for the next 20 years- …
我可以在接下来的 20 年里一直使用 Opus 4.5——……
and you would hear no complaints from me because it was just so incredibly amazing to see an agent do all this work in the way that I wanted it done.
你不会听到我的任何抱怨,因为看到一个代理按照我想要的方式完成所有这些工作真是太令人难以置信了。
Because it was not just about it being able to solve a task, it was also that I could look at its path there and go, “Yep.
因为这不仅仅是它能够解决任务,而且我可以看看它在那里的路径,然后说:“是的。
Yep.
是的。
Maybe not there, but almost,” and it would give you two notes.
也许不存在,但几乎”,它会给你两个注释。
You’ll get to where I wanted to go in the way I wanted to go there.
你会以我想去的方式到达我想去的地方。
You could produce code I wanted to merge.
您可以生成我想要合并的代码。
You could produce code that actually looked beautiful if it was written in Ruby.
如果用 Ruby 编写,您可以生成实际上看起来很漂亮的代码。
Rust, different question.
生锈,不同的问题。
But this ability for the agents to truly become an extension of how I wanted to work was very novel.
但代理真正成为我想要的工作方式的延伸的这种能力是非常新颖的。
But then we wait just until early spring, and suddenly we get sub-agents.
但等到早春,我们突然就得到了次级代理。
10:37 We get harnesses that can subdivide the task, and something that would take Opus quite a while suddenly took a fifth of the time, a 10th of the time, because it could get chopped up and suddenly you got eight sub-agents working for you.
我们得到了可以细分任务的工具,原本需要 Opus 相当长一段时间的事情突然需要五分之一、十分之一的时间,因为它可能会被分割,突然间你就会有八个子代理为你工作。
But both of those two first phases of the agentic age, to me, still felt like I had to drive.
但对我来说,代理时代的这两个第一阶段仍然感觉我必须开车。
I could tell it what I wanted, where to look for it, and steer it a little bit when it went off, and then we’ll get there, and I would go much faster.
我可以告诉它我想要什么,在哪里寻找它,并在它启动时稍微引导它,然后我们就会到达那里,而且我会走得更快。
11:11 But I had to be in the driver’s seat.
但我必须坐在驾驶座上。
I had to tell it what I wanted, and I had to be the reviewer, the auditor of what was coming out.
我必须告诉它我想要什么,并且我必须成为即将发布的内容的审阅者和审计者。
And then finally now, this summer, with Opus 5, Fable, and Sol, GPT Sol, and to a lesser extent, some of the open weight models, we’ve arrived at a new era where I’m not telling it where we’re going.
最后,今年夏天,随着 Opus 5、Fable、Sol、GPT Sol,以及在较小程度上的一些开放权重模型,我们已经到达了一个新时代,我不会告诉它我们要去哪里。
I’m telling it the problem I have.
我告诉它我遇到的问题。
I’m telling it the fuzzy, vague idea I have.
我告诉它我的模糊想法。
It tells me where we’re going.
它告诉我我们要去哪里。
It tells me which path to take, and I will still look at it because I’m a curious person and I like computers and I like the outcome of it, but I really kinda don’t have to.
它告诉我该走哪条路,我仍然会关注它,因为我是一个好奇的人,我喜欢计算机,我喜欢它的结果,但我真的有点不需要。
I’ve become optional in the part that produces the code that picks the route.
我在生成选择路线的代码的部分中变得可选。
Remember when early GPS systems came out?
还记得早期 GPS 系统问世的时间吗?
12:09 They were amazing compared to looking at a map, but you still wanted to pay attention.
与查看地图相比,它们令人惊叹,但您仍然想注意。
Is it gonna drive you in the harbor?
它会开车送你到港口吗?
I remember these newspaper articles.
我记得这些报纸文章。
“Ah, GPS, they’re terrible because people don’t pay attention, they drive in the harbor.” When was the last time GPS drove anyone in the harbor?
“啊,GPS,它们很糟糕,因为人们不注意,它们在港口里行驶。” GPS 上次在港口开车是什么时候?
Like, that just doesn’t happen anymore.
就像,这样的事情不会再发生了。
In fact, the cars now just drive themselves, right?
事实上,汽车现在只是自动驾驶,对吧?
And this is where we’ve arrived at now, that I can trust.
这就是我们现在所达到的目标,我可以相信。
For the domain I’m working in right now, I can trust it and feel completely confident that it’s gonna have my back.
对于我现在工作的领域,我可以信任它,并且完全有信心它会支持我。
It’s not gonna do something stupid, and if it does something stupid, it’s gonna be able to recover.
它不会做一些愚蠢的事情,如果它做了一些愚蠢的事情,它也能够恢复。
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
12:45 We should mention that there’s all kinds of domains that-
我们应该提到的是,有各种各样的领域——
Correct.
正确。
…
……
12:48 programmers operate in.
程序员操作于.
There’s…
有……
I actually don’t know, but I think the most common domain in development is, like, web dev CRUD.
我实际上不知道,但我认为开发中最常见的领域是 Web dev CRUD。
You have a database.
你有一个数据库。
13:00 You have a user-facing interface, and it does something back and forth, and it could be internal to just one person, to multiple people, to a small number of people, or to the world.
你有一个面向用户的界面,它来回做一些事情,它可以是一个人、多人、一小部分人或全世界的内部。
And I think for that, it’s– I mean, you could really get to the 100% of code written by AI and really almost– if you’re a good programmer and you have a good intuition about what’s happening behind the scenes, you can legitimately not look at the code, at least that’s been my experience.
我认为,就这一点而言,我的意思是,你真的可以得到 100% 由 AI 编写的代码,而且几乎可以说,如果你是一名优秀的程序员,并且你对幕后发生的事情有很好的直觉,你可以合法地不查看代码,至少这是我的经验。
I don’t know how much prior experience with programming you need to have to kinda know that things are working correctly behind the scenes, like intuitively by observing the ripple effects, the symptoms of the system.
我不知道你需要多少编程经验才能知道幕后一切正常工作,比如直观地观察连锁反应、系统症状。
13:45 But I think for that domain it’s close to 100%, and then there’s domains like you’re also operating in, which is writing a Linux distribution.
但我认为对于该领域来说,它接近 100%,然后还有像您一样正在操作的领域,即编写 Linux 发行版。
There, maybe there’s more because you’re obsessed with speed and all that kind of stuff.
在那里,也许还有更多,因为你痴迷于速度和所有类似的东西。
There, maybe you need to look at the code a little bit more.
在那里,也许您需要多看一下代码。
Then there’s maybe safety critical systems all the way down to operating a nuclear power plant or a self-driving car.
然后可能还有安全关键系统,一直到运行核电站或自动驾驶汽车。
Maybe you need to look at the code more carefully.
也许您需要更仔细地查看代码。
Yes, but that said, AI is insanely capable at both finding-
是的,但话虽如此,人工智能在发现和发现方面都具有惊人的能力——
Yeah.
是的。
…
……
14:17 and fixing security vulnerabilities.
并修复安全漏洞。
This was the whole blowup about Fable.
这就是《神鬼寓言》的整个爆发过程。
This model was so capable of finding holes that an attacker could exploit that it was simply not safe to release.
该模型非常能够发现攻击者可以利用的漏洞,因此发布它根本不安全。
So the irony here is that when you look at that field, it seems like we’ve reached levels of intelligence that virtually no human can match because many of these security holes are about stringing combo moves together.
因此,讽刺的是,当你观察这个领域时,我们似乎已经达到了几乎没有人类可以匹敌的智能水平,因为许多安全漏洞都是关于将组合动作串在一起的。
You find one little vulnerability here that by itself might not be the worst thing in the world, but then you combine it with four others, and suddenly you have RCE, remote command execution.
你在这里发现了一个小漏洞,它本身可能并不是世界上最糟糕的事情,但是当你将它与其他四个漏洞结合起来时,突然间你就拥有了 RCE,即远程命令执行。
Humans who are able to do that are very rare.
能够做到这一点的人类非常罕见。
They usually work inside state-sponsored organizations or other clandestine operations.
他们通常在国家资助的组织或其他秘密组织内工作。
They’re not just out and about finding things.
他们不只是出去寻找东西。
15:14 So they’ve gotten so good at that.
所以他们在这方面做得非常好。
The Linux distribution is why I’ve gotten 100% AI pilled.
Linux 发行版是我 100% AI 被抛弃的原因。
Because I’ve been working on Omarchy for the last three months, this version that just dropped a few days ago called Quattro.
因为过去三个月我一直在开发 Omarchy,所以几天前刚刚发布的这个版本称为 Quattro。
And almost right from the beginning I’m working on that version, the agent acceleration neared 100%, and in the last two months it has been 100%.
几乎从一开始我就在开发这个版本,代理加速接近 100%,在过去两个月里一直是 100%。
I have not written-
我没有写过——
Really?
真的吗?
…
……
15:43 any of the code that’s shipped in Quattro by hand.
Quattro 中手动发送的任何代码。
I’ve reviewed the shape of all of it.
我已经回顾了所有这些的形状。
I’ve reviewed the individual lines of anything that’s critical in the model layer of the system, and I’ve not looked at a bunch of the UI code.
我已经审查了系统模型层中所有关键内容的各个行,但没有查看一堆 UI 代码。
I have not looked at a bunch of the auxiliary code, and I’ve not written any of the new functionality entirely by hand.
我没有看过一堆辅助代码,也没有完全手工编写任何新功能。
But then the web part, actually evolving Basecamp and Hey, our professional products that have lots of users and are relatively large code bases, have proven surprisingly tricky to fully accelerate with agents.
但 Web 部分,实际上是不断发展的 Basecamp 和 Hey,我们拥有大量用户且代码库相对较大的专业产品,事实证明,要通过代理完全加速是非常困难的。
We just released Basecamp 5 not too long ago.
不久前我们刚刚发布了 Basecamp 5。
That was the first product at 37signals that was really agent accelerated.
这是 37signals 的第一个真正由代理加速的产品。
Because we were in this final sprint phase from around February.
因为我们从二月份左右就进入了最后的冲刺阶段。
By then, agents were already good.
那时,代理人已经很好了。
16:44 And we had this early surge of, “It’s solved.
我们一开始就有这样的想法:“问题解决了。
We can just have the designers do the programming.
我们可以让设计师来进行编程。
They know what features they want.
他们知道自己想要什么功能。
They know what shape they want it to take.
他们知道他们想要它采取什么形状。
Let them vibe.” And we let them vibe.
让他们产生共鸣。”我们让他们产生共鸣。
And we ended up with a lot of PRs that individually perhaps could have been justified for a hot moment, but taken all together, destroyed the architecture of the system.
我们最终得到了很多 PR,这些 PR 单独来看可能在热门时刻是合理的,但总的来说,破坏了系统的架构。
And we actually had to clean up manually, mop it up by hand, by human hand, to get back to an architecture that felt cohesive and coherent.
事实上,我们必须手动清理,用手拖地,用人的手,才能回到一个感觉有凝聚力和连贯性的建筑。
So we still have a bit of that– that was February, by the way.
所以我们仍然有一些这样的事情——顺便说一下,那是二月。
Things are quite different now.
现在情况已经大不相同了。
Well, hold on a second.
好吧,请稍等。
17:25 What’s the lesson from that?
从中得到什么教训?
Is one of the lessons from that that you have to be a programmer at this stage to be able to vibe code?
从中得到的教训之一是,在这个阶段你必须成为一名程序员才能感受到代码吗?
To be able to vibe code on existing substantial-
为了能够在现有的实体上振动代码-
I see.
我明白了。
…
……
17:38 code bases, even if they’re crud, if you wanna retain the element of architecture that got that system to where it was.
代码库,即使它们很粗糙,如果你想保留使系统达到原来状态的架构元素。
Now, that’s also a point where I’ve stressed many times that when people accuse vibe coders of being slob generators, I go right back at them and say, “Have you looked at the average programmer’s output?” That is some other slob too.
现在,这也是我多次强调的一点,当人们指责氛围程序员是懒惰的生成器时,我会立即回过头问他们,“你看过普通程序员的输出吗?”那也是一些其他的懒汉。
If you’ve looked at behind the scenes of many great companies and what their code bases look like after there’s been 3,000 humans through them, they’re awful.
如果你了解过许多伟大公司的幕后情况,以及他们的代码库在 3,000 名员工使用后的样子,你会发现它们非常糟糕。
Absolutely awful.
绝对可怕。
Can you tell me the intuition you have?
你能告诉我你的直觉吗?
18:14 I seem to—just stepping back and observing the different apps that we all rely on, I don’t know, Adobe Photoshop, all this kind of stuff—there seems to be…
我似乎——只是退后一步,观察我们都依赖的不同应用程序,我不知道,Adobe Photoshop,所有这些东西——似乎……
the progress on development there has not accelerated.
那里的发展进展并没有加快。
So why is it, what lessons can you draw from Basecamp, like well-established, huge user base?
那么为什么会这样,你可以从 Basecamp 中吸取什么教训,比如完善的、庞大的用户群呢?
Why aren’t we seeing, like, super rapid increase in, like, new updates, features, all this kind of stuff in these well-established apps?
为什么我们在这些成熟的应用程序中没有看到新的更新、功能以及所有此类内容的超快速增长?
Multiple reasons.
多种原因。
18:44 I’ll start with the first one that’s the most critical.
我将从最关键的第一个开始。
As soon as you’re having human teams work together on something, the bottleneck is rarely implementation.
一旦你让人类团队一起工作某件事,瓶颈很少会出现在实施上。
It’s human bandwidth and communication.
这是人类的带宽和沟通。
When you have a product manager and a couple of designers and a VP above them and a CTO above them, and everyone wants to be part of the shaping process because we’re all justifying why we’re here, that’s where all the productivity goes to die.
当你有一名产品经理、几名设计师、一名副总裁和一名首席技术官时,每个人都想成为塑造过程的一部分,因为我们都在证明我们在这里的理由,那就是所有生产力都会消亡的地方。
The revelation I’ve had working on Omarchy the last three months is that to get that magical 10X, 100X, in a few rare cases, 1000X productivity boost, you have to interact with the agents directly, and you cannot intermediate that bandwidth with another human because it’s simply too slow.
过去三个月我在 Omarchy 工作中得到的启示是,要获得神奇的 10 倍、100 倍(在极少数情况下)甚至 1000 倍的生产力提升,你必须直接与代理交互,并且你无法与另一个人协调该带宽,因为它太慢了。
19:49 And on the one hand, that’s a bit of a bummer.
一方面,这有点令人失望。
I mean, I like humans, and it’s great to work together.
我的意思是,我喜欢人类,一起工作真是太好了。
But it also means we need to temper our expectations with what these agents can do if it’s humans driving it, and you have three layers of approval and all the other machinery of a large corporation.
但这也意味着我们需要调整我们的期望,如果是人类驾驶的话,这些代理可以做什么,并且你拥有三层批准和大公司的所有其他机制。
The implementation part is only a small segment of it.
实现部分只是其中的一小部分。
The other thing I’d say is that most organizations don’t know what they want.
我要说的另一件事是,大多数组织都不知道自己想要什么。
They don’t know how to make it better.
他们不知道如何让它变得更好。
They’re not bottlenecked on implementation.
他们在实施方面没有遇到瓶颈。
They’re bottlenecked on ideas.
他们在想法上遇到了瓶颈。
They’re bottlenecked on vision.
他们在视力方面遇到了瓶颈。
They’re bottlenecked on taste.
他们在口味上遇到了瓶颈。
And if you don’t have those elements in excess of your implementational capacity, it doesn’t help.
如果这些要素没有超出你的实施能力,那就没有帮助。
So you can make a lot of shitty ideas come true, then what?
所以你可以让很多糟糕的想法变成现实,然后呢?
Are you gonna ship that?
你要运送那个吗?
20:46 That sounds like, I don’t know, something coming out of Microsoft.
我不知道,这听起来像是来自微软的东西。
That’s not what we’re trying to replicate here.
这不是我们想要在这里复制的。
That process is not actually…
这个过程实际上并不是……
Because we already had this.
因为我们已经有了这个。
If you step back for a moment and think of the towering organizations we have who have had tens of thousands of programmers at their disposal.
如果你退后一步,想想我们拥有数以万计的程序员的庞大组织。
I mean, I’m picking on Microsoft here.
我的意思是,我在这里选择微软。
I love Microsoft some of the time, but I’ll pick on them in this case because they have had endless resources, endless programming capacity for decades, right?
我有时喜欢微软,但在这种情况下我会选择他们,因为他们几十年来拥有无尽的资源、无尽的编程能力,对吗?
This is what’s showing us that just being able to write a lot of code does not produce great compelling software.
这向我们表明,仅仅能够编写大量代码并不能产生引人注目的软件。
Now, the other thing is we’ve had this capacity for about six months.
现在,另一件事是我们已经拥有这种能力大约六个月了。
That’s not very long in human life cycle capacity of internalizing what’s going on.
在人类生命周期内化正在发生的事情的能力中,这并不是很长。
21:40 And I think it’s actually funny that the critique of AI is, why isn’t it going faster?
我认为对人工智能的批评实际上很有趣,为什么它不能发展得更快?
What are you talking about?
你在说什么?
We’ve not had any other form of progress that has moved as fast as AI, and you’re impatient because in the last three months we haven’t rewritten the whole world and made it a utopia of software goodness?
我们还没有任何其他形式的进步像人工智能一样快,并且您不耐烦,因为在过去的三个月里我们还没有重写整个世界并使其成为软件善良的乌托邦?
You’re basically saying everybody should be switching to Linux now.
你基本上是说现在每个人都应该转向 Linux。
21:59 One of the arguments is, like, we can rewrite all the software that’s not available in Linux in Linux.
争论之一是,我们可以在 Linux 中重写所有 Linux 中不可用的软件。
Linux has been the love of my life for many years, but one of the reasons I’m still attached to Windows and now Mac is because of video editing, Premiere.
多年来,Linux 一直是我一生的挚爱,但我仍然迷恋 Windows 和 Mac 的原因之一是因为视频编辑、Premiere。
We’re gonna fix that.
我们会解决这个问题。
22:15 But-
但是——
So the question is, who’s gonna build Premiere and Photoshop for Linux?
所以问题是,谁来为 Linux 构建 Premiere 和 Photoshop?
22:17 And it feels like one person can now.
感觉现在一个人可以了。
100% one person can.
100%一个人可以。
And so, and I’m allowed to be impatient.
所以,我可以不耐烦。
22:28 In fact, me or anyone else, impatience is the first step of doing it yourself, right?
其实无论我还是任何人,不耐烦都是自己动手的第一步,对吧?
Like-
就像-
Correct.
正确。
…
……
22:40 and there’s a community of tens of thousands of people that use Adobe Premiere or DaVinci, all these non-linear video editors, that know the frustrations.
还有一个由数以万计的用户组成的社区,他们使用 Adobe Premiere 或 DaVinci 这些非线性视频编辑器,他们知道其中的挫败感。
Everybody shares them.
每个人都分享它们。
You can look at Reddit.
你可以看看Reddit。
You can look at the forums.
你可以看看论坛。
Everybody knows it.
每个人都知道。
I don’t know what it is.
我不知道那是什么。
It may be the management.
这可能是管理层。
It may be the meetings.
可能是会议。
All the things you’ve always discussed is the bureaucracy that’s inside companies that’s slowing everything down in the development of features.
你一直讨论的所有事情都是公司内部的官僚主义,它拖慢了功能开发的速度。
But it feels like there– if you just let some of the developers loose with a bunch of agents, you can fix all that.
但感觉就在那里——如果你让一些开发人员与一群代理一起放松,你就可以解决所有问题。
23:13 But again, based on everything you’re saying, maybe the way to do that is to start over from scratch, maybe through open source, or somebody launches a new company, that within large companies now it’s hard to really accelerate into the agentic era by letting developers just build.
但同样,根据你所说的一切,也许要做到这一点的方法是从头开始,也许通过开源,或者有人创办一家新公司,现在在大公司内部,很难通过让开发人员直接构建来真正加速进入代理时代。
This is the classic innovator’s dilemma.
这是典型的创新者困境。
23:33 These companies have gotten so good, so established at the old way, and therefore their entire structure, management layers, processes are tuned for a time that no longer exists.
这些公司已经变得如此优秀,如此以旧的方式建立起来,因此他们的整个结构、管理层、流程都被调整以适应一个不再存在的时代。
But you can’t pivot that.
但你不能改变这一点。
These are super tankers.
这些是超级油轮。
It just doesn’t happen.
它只是不会发生。
This is why we’re finally getting this upset in the technology industry.
这就是为什么我们最终在科技行业感到不安。
For a while, I was very upset about the duopoly between Apple and Google on mobile, because it felt like mobile was the most important computing platform that we had, and I could not see a path to unseat either Google or Apple sitting on top of that, controlling everything, taking their toll booth money.
有一段时间,我对苹果和谷歌在移动领域的双头垄断感到非常不安,因为感觉移动是我们拥有的最重要的计算平台,而我看不出有什么办法可以取代谷歌或苹果,控制一切,拿走他们的收费站钱。
But the game has changed.
但游戏已经改变了。
This is no longer the most important platform.
这不再是最重要的平台。
24:32 Mobile phones are important, but there’s also a lot of other form factors coming, whether it’s glasses or it’s earpieces or whatever else have you.
手机很重要,但还有很多其他形式的因素即将出现,无论是眼镜、耳机还是其他任何你拥有的东西。
It’s all in play now, but the computing platforms themselves are in play for the first time in probably 40 years, if you look at the desktop.
现在一切都在发挥作用,但如果你看看桌面,计算平台本身可能是 40 年来第一次发挥作用。
Linux has been around since ’91.
Linux 从 91 年就已经出现了。
It’s not taken off or taken over on the desktop.
它不会在桌面上被删除或接管。
It’s taken over everything else.
它接管了其他一切。
All the devices you have on your desk, your fridge, your toaster, everything runs Linux except for your computer.
你办公桌上的所有设备、冰箱、烤面包机,除了你的电脑之外,一切都运行 Linux。
Now, funnily enough, your Android is actually Linux, but wrapped so sufficiently that you can’t really recognize it.
现在,有趣的是,你的 Android 实际上是 Linux,但包装得非常充分,以至于你无法真正识别它。
But now there’s an opening, and the opening is exactly as you say it.
但现在有一个空缺,而且这个空缺正如你所说的那样。
25:21 If there’s a piece of software you depended on that bound you to Windows, it is completely within reach for you personally to start rewriting it.
如果您依赖的某个软件将您与 Windows 绑定在一起,那么您个人完全可以开始重写它。
And maybe you won’t get to 100% coverage, but this is the old joke about Microsoft Office.
也许你无法达到 100% 的覆盖率,但这是关于 Microsoft Office 的老笑话。
“I only use 5%.” Yeah, well, we all use a different 5%.
“我只用了5%。”是的,我们都使用不同的 5%。
Well, what if we all just build our own 5%?
那么,如果我们都只建立自己的 5% 呢?
What if I just took the functionality that I need and just did that?
如果我只获取我需要的功能并执行该操作会怎样?
That is a completely different challenge and one agents are incredibly capable of doing right now today, and I’ve done it a lot of times over.
这是一个完全不同的挑战,今天有一个特工非常有能力做到这一点,而且我已经做过很多次了。
So one of the amazing things I’ve found with the latest agent engaged is I have become a polyglot programmer, something I was absolutely not before.
因此,我在最新聘用的代理中发现的令人惊奇的事情之一是,我已经成为一名多语言程序员,这是我以前绝对不是的。
I was a Ruby programmer- …
我是一名 Ruby 程序员 - ...
first and foremost, and then I dabbled a little bit in Bash-
首先也是最重要的,然后我涉足了一点 Bash——
26:17 …
……
when I had to.
当我不得不这样做的时候。
And in the last two months, I’ve written C++.
在过去的两个月里,我编写了 C++。
I’ve written three applications that have shipped in Omarchy Quattro.
我已经编写了三个应用程序,并已在 Omarchy Quattro 中发布。
I wrote a writing app.
我写了一个写作应用程序。
I was using this app called Typora, which is a very nice app-
我正在使用这个名为 Typora 的应用程序,这是一个非常好的应用程序 -
Great, great app
太棒了,很棒的应用程序
…
……
26:33 which in itself is based on another app called iA Writer, which was my real love on the Mac- …
它本身是基于另一个名为 iA Writer 的应用程序,这是我在 Mac 上真正的最爱 - ...
for a clean, simple Markdown writing environment.
一个干净、简单的 Markdown 写作环境。
That’s where I write all my essays.
那是我写所有论文的地方。
26:45 And then I moved to Linux, and I couldn’t get iA Writer, so I moved over to this other tool called Typora.
然后我转向 Linux,但无法获得 iA Writer,所以我转向了另一个名为 Typora 的工具。
It was a piece of shareware, and it had a lot of features I just didn’t need.
它是一个共享软件,有很多我不需要的功能。
And about six weeks, seven weeks ago, I thought, “Do you know what?
大约六周、七周前,我想,“你知道吗?
I only need 5% of Typora,” which is already a basic app.
我只需要 Typora 的 5%,”这已经是一个基本的应用程序了。
I literally told the agent to get going, that I wanted it written in C++ and Qt, because that would fit well with the aesthetic of what I was building with Quattro.
我确实告诉代理开始吧,我希望用 C++ 和 Qt 编写它,因为这非常符合我用 Quattro 构建的美感。
And in, I think, about 20 minutes, it had the first version.
我想,大约 20 分钟后,它就有了第一个版本。
I started using it, and it wasn’t quite right.
我开始使用它,但它不太正确。
Within two days, I’d given up Typora, and I wrote and have written all of my essays since that moment in Omawrite.
两天之内,我就放弃了 Typora,从那一刻起我所有的文章都是在 Omawrite 上写的。
Can I ask for your advice and your vision about something?
我可以征求你的建议和你对某件事的看法吗?
27:30 So what I find with agents, you can actually write something like a replacement for Typora that is perfectly customized to you, to your needs- …
所以我在代理中发现,你实际上可以编写一些东西,比如 Typora 的替代品,它是根据你的需求完美定制的——……
with just one user in mind.
只考虑一位用户。
And then there’s a version of that that starts with one user in mind but expands to a larger audience.
还有一个版本,从一个用户开始,但扩展到更多的受众。
So I’ve actually written a large number of software just for me, and I find it easier to do and better to get my situation done.
所以我实际上已经为我自己编写了大量的软件,而且我发现它更容易完成,而且更好地完成我的情况。
For example, I have a video editor I’ve written, which is very easy to do just for me.
例如,我有一个自己编写的视频编辑器,这对我来说非常容易做到。
28:06 I’ve never, unlike you, built something that’s used by a large number of people, and I find that a bit scary and intimidating.
与你不同,我从来没有构建过被很多人使用的东西,我觉得这有点可怕和令人生畏。
So, like, at this, with this agentic age, how do you take a step to actually build something that solves your problem, which I think is a beautiful way to build, but also expand it to actually useful for other people?
所以,在这个代理时代,你如何采取步骤来实际构建一些解决你的问题的东西,我认为这是一种美丽的构建方式,但也将其扩展为对其他人真正有用?
Like, is there advice you can give, and do you also see the problem of how easy it is to just build a tool for yourself?
比如,您可以提供什么建议吗?您是否也看到了为自己构建一个工具是多么容易的问题?
Yes, but it is simpler than you think.
是的,但它比你想象的要简单。
28:35 By the time you’re done building the tool for yourself, you simply tell your agent to put it on GitHub.
当您自己构建完该工具后,您只需告诉您的代理将其放在 GitHub 上即可。
You don’t even have to do anything else.
你甚至不需要做任何其他事情。
It will figure out how to put that repo on GitHub.
它将弄清楚如何将该存储库放在 GitHub 上。
It’ll write a nice README.
它会写一个很好的自述文件。
It’ll start using GitHub releases so that you can track things.
它将开始使用 GitHub 版本,以便您可以跟踪事情。
It’ll actually be a better software maintainer than you could ever be- …
它实际上会成为比你更好的软件维护者——……
because it is far more patient, it is far more diligent in doing the drudgery of managing open source software than you are.
因为它比你更有耐心,在管理开源软件的苦差事上也比你勤奋得多。
29:05 And you can simply get on with the joy of using the software that you built and evolving it as you see fit.
您可以继续享受使用您构建的软件的乐趣,并根据您认为合适的方式对其进行改进。
Now, this gets into the big argument we’ve been having in open source for a while.
现在,这成为我们在开源领域一段时间以来一直存在的争论。
Are AI contributions good or bad for the maintainer?
人工智能的贡献对于维护者来说是好事还是坏事?
There’s a lot of maintainers right now who are quite upset about the fact that they’re suddenly getting a huge influx of pull requests, of contributions from people who may not be the best programmers or programmers at all- …
现在有很多维护者对他们突然收到大量拉取请求感到非常不安,这些请求来自可能不是最好的程序员或根本不是程序员的人的贡献......
towards their software.
对他们的软件。
I look at that argument and go, “Are you kidding me?” Here is a vein of free contributions that you can take or don’t take, but you’re complaining about the fact that they’re there?
我看着这个论点,然后说道:“你在开玩笑吗?”这里有一系列免费贡献,你可以接受也可以不接受,但你却抱怨它们的存在?
It sounds straight out of- My steak is too juicy and my lobster too buttery.
听起来很直接——我的牛排太多汁,我的龙虾太黄油。
What are you complaining about?
你在抱怨什么?
30:07 This is the most amazing thing.
这是最奇妙的事。
This is what we proclamated for so long was going to be the magic of open source, that we could all contribute to it, but it was, of course, never true.
这就是我们长期以来宣称的开源的魔力,我们都可以为它做出贡献,但当然,这从来都不是真的。
There was only a small subset of people who contribute to open source, and that was the very highly skilled wizards.
只有一小部分人为开源做出了贡献,那就是技术非常高超的奇才。
So this is a bit of a reformation moment.
所以这是一个改革的时刻。
We had this disintermediation between us and the computer, and it was this class of clerics and priests called programmers, and suddenly they’re being disintermediated here by was it the 95 theses by Luther in 1500s, nailing them to the door?
我们和计算机之间存在这种脱媒,就是这一类被称为程序员的神职人员和牧师,突然之间,他们被脱媒了,是1500年代路德的95条论纲,把他们钉在了门上吗?
And one of those was very clearly about the intermediation, that you should have direct access to the higher intelligence.
其中之一非常明确地涉及中介,即你应该能够直接接触到更高的智慧。
But don’t you need the wizards to keep a high bar of excellence in the code base?
但是您不需要向导来保持代码库的高品质吗?
100% you do, which is also something that’s always been true about open source, which is the second argument that really grinds me.
100% 你这样做,这也是开源的一贯真理,这是真正让我苦恼的第二个论点。
30:56 I’ve been running open source projects for 25 years.
我运行开源项目已有 25 年了。
I have literally looked at the output of thousands, if not tens of thousands of programmers.
我确实查看了数千名(如果不是数万名)程序员的输出。
I feel like I have the statistical basis to assert that most programmers, they suck.
我觉得我有统计基础来断言大多数程序员都很糟糕。
And I don’t mean that in the way it sounds.
我的意思并不是听起来那样。
31:24 That was why I paused for a hot second here.
这就是为什么我在这里停了下来。
I mean, they suck in the sense that they don’t write the code I want to have written.
我的意思是,他们很糟糕,因为他们没有编写我想编写的代码。
They don’t prepare their bug reports with all the relevant information.
他们没有准备包含所有相关信息的错误报告。
They don’t detail their pull requests with the why.
他们没有详细说明拉取请求的原因。
They don’t bother to fill in needed code comments.
他们懒得填写所需的代码注释。
They don’t double-check their work.
他们不会仔细检查自己的工作。
They don’t write unit tests.
他们不编写单元测试。
They don’t do all of these things it takes to create good software.
他们并没有完成创建优秀软件所需的所有事情。
But do you know who’ll do all that stuff?
但你知道谁会做所有这些事情吗?
Agents, if you tell them to.
特工,如果你告诉他们的话。
They’re very diligent at following your instructions, most of the time, sometimes to a fault.
大多数时候,他们非常勤奋地遵循你的指示,有时甚至会犯错。
But it actually means that if you take the median programmer and their pull requests towards an average open source project, they’re already getting outclassed by agents.
但这实际上意味着,如果你将中位数程序员及其对普通开源项目的拉取请求考虑在内,那么他们已经被代理超越了。
32:11 I would rather get an agent-written pull request to one of my projects than I’d get one written by a human, and it’s not just because the quality’s better.
我宁愿让我的项目收到一份由代理编写的拉取请求,也不愿收到由人类编写的拉取请求,这不仅仅是因为质量更好。
It’s also because I feel a lot less bad if I just reject it.
这也是因为如果我拒绝它,我会感觉不那么糟糕。
You didn’t even write it, so I can simply look at what your agent wrote on your behalf and go, “Eh, don’t want it.” That’s always been true in open source, and in fact, I think this is one of the problems with open source maintainers.
你甚至都没有写,所以我可以简单地看看你的经纪人代表你写的内容,然后说:“呃,不想要它。”这在开源领域一直都是如此,事实上,我认为这是开源维护者面临的问题之一。
They have way too much ball of neuroticism and anxiety that requires them to look upon any contribution as an obligation on their part to do everything to get that to land in the code base.
他们有太多的神经质和焦虑,这要求他们将任何贡献视为自己的义务,尽一切努力将其纳入代码库。
That’s not true at all.
这根本不是真的。
33:00 You can simply say, “No,” or even better, you can say, “No thank you.” And if you get into the mode of realizing that your project is allowed to exist and evolve according to your vision, according to your roadmap, it becomes so much easier in the agentic age to decline the contributions you don’t want because you don’t even inconvenience or hurt the feelings of a human.
你可以简单地说“不”,或者更好的是,你可以说“不,谢谢”。如果你意识到你的项目可以根据你的愿景、根据你的路线图存在和发展,那么在代理时代,拒绝你不想要的贡献就会变得容易得多,因为你甚至不会带来不便或伤害人类的感情。
It’s just a clanker, and the clanker won’t mind.
这只是一个叮当声,叮当声不会介意。
In fact, the producers of clankers, the labs, love when you spend tokens in vain.
事实上,《clanker》的制作者、实验室很喜欢你白白花费代币。
They get paid just the same.
他们得到的报酬是一样的。
So, in my opinion, this is the absolute best time to ever have been an open source software maintainer.
因此,在我看来,这绝对是成为开源软件维护者的最佳时机。
33:46 Not only do we get this wealth of glorious pull requests made by agents with all the boxes ticked, we also get to tap into a creativity of people who did not have access to contribute to a project before.
我们不仅得到了代理人提出的大量光荣的拉取请求,而且我们还可以挖掘以前无法为项目做出贡献的人们的创造力。
I’ve been running the Omarchy project now for a little over a year, and in the last three months working on Quattro, I have merged over 1,000 pull requests.
我运行 Omarchy 项目已经一年多了,在过去三个月的 Quattro 工作中,我合并了 1,000 多个拉取请求。
Quite a lot of those pull requests were written by people who were not classical programmers, or were programmers in other domains, not Linux operating system or distribution development.
其中相当多的拉取请求是由非传统程序员或其他领域的程序员编写的,而不是 Linux 操作系统或发行版开发的程序员。
They were able to contribute their good ideas because of agents, and I got to cherry-pick the very best of that-
由于代理商的帮助,他们能够贡献自己的好想法,而我必须挑选其中最好的-
34:32 …
……
because it was there.
因为它就在那里。
Otherwise, those ideas would just have lived inside their heads.
否则,这些想法就会一直存在于他们的脑海中。
Again, is that not the purpose of open source, that we tap into the collective intelligence and creativity of the whole goddamn planet, and we channel that towards a commons where we all benefit from the combined efforts of everyone?
再说一次,这不是开源的目的吗?我们利用整个该死的星球的集体智慧和创造力,并将其引导到一个公共领域,让我们都从每个人的共同努力中受益?
Now, there’s currently, I think, about 400 unmerged pull requests on Omarchy, about double what it was a week ago.
现在,我认为 Omarchy 上目前大约有 400 个未合并的 Pull 请求,大约是一周前的两倍。
So the acceleration is real, but so are the tools.
因此,加速是真实的,但工具也是如此。
I’m not reviewing every pull request anymore.
我不再审查每个拉取请求。
I haven’t been reviewing them for quite some time now.
我已经有一段时间没有评论它们了。
I have the agents- …
我有代理人-...
review them for me- …
帮我回顾一下——……
and then they will give me a summary about whether something is ready for the decision, the human decision.
然后他们会给我一个总结,说明某些事情是否已经准备好做出决定,即人类的决定。
Should we merge or should we not merge?
我们应该合并还是不应该合并?
35:25 I don’t need to look at all the pull requests that are either wrong, duplicated, bad.
我不需要查看所有错误、重复或错误的拉取请求。
An agent can sort that chaff away from me.
特工可以帮我把这些废话清除掉。
I just get to look at the pearls- …
我只是来看看珍珠-...
the good ideas that are ready to go, the bug fixes that the agent has validated in a VM on my behalf.
准备好的好主意,代理已代表我在虚拟机中验证的错误修复。
All the drudgery of replicating and managing open source projects is evaporating at lightning speed, and we are left with the golden juicy parts, the bone marrow of software development- …
复制和管理开源项目的所有苦差事都以闪电般的速度消失,我们留下了金黄多汁的部分,软件开发的骨髓——……
deciding what should this thing do and where should it go?
决定这个东西应该做什么以及应该去哪里?
Do you think the good ideas, ultimately the kernel of the good ideas originated in the human mind, so the individual contributors Like, can it be done by agents, or is the PR ultimately requires a human idea?
您认为好创意,最终好创意的内核源于人类的思想,那么个人贡献者之类的,可以由代理商来做吗,还是PR最终需要人类的想法?
36:03 Like how to improve Omarchy, all those incoming…
比如如何改进 Omarchy,所有即将到来的……
Or can it all just be a pool of agents?
或者这一切都可以只是一个代理池吗?
That was the mode and the way I was thinking about agents in the first agentic age from November 24 to February 28.
这就是我在 11 月 24 日至 2 月 28 日的第一个代理时代思考代理的模式和方式。
36:24 I thought all the ideas would originate with the humans.
我认为所有的想法都源于人类。
They would tell their agents what to build, and off they went.
他们会告诉他们的代理人要建造什么,然后他们就出发了。
I don’t think that’s true anymore at all.
我认为这已经不再是真的了。
I have seen things you people wouldn’t believe, ideas coming out of models so great that it makes me humble- …
我看到了你们人们无法相信的事情,从模型中产生的想法是如此伟大,以至于让我感到谦卑——……
as a person who otherwise prides himself on having good ideas.
作为一个以拥有好主意而自豪的人。
The agents are incredibly capable of creative thought, and folks who are still stuck in the analysis that agents are parrots- …
代理人具有令人难以置信的创造性思维能力,而那些仍然坚持认为代理人是鹦鹉学舌的人——……
just regurgitating the ideas that are already there, are delusional about the progress that’s been made in the last six to nine months.
只是重复已经存在的想法,对过去六到九个月所取得的进展产生了妄想。
So some people listening to you right now will say DHH is suffering from the old case of AI psychosis.
所以现在听你讲话的一些人会说 DHH 患有人工智能精神病的旧病。
37:21 Can you steel man the case that you are in fact experiencing in a state of delusion, like One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, and can you argue against it?
你能像《飞越疯人院》那样,面对自己实际上在妄想状态中经历的情况吗?你能反驳它吗?
I’m in a state of delirium.
我处于谵妄状态。
37:37 That’s the state I’m in.
这就是我现在的状态。
Because I have been working with computers for 40 years, and I’ve never seen the things that I’ve seen in just the last two months.
因为我和计算机打交道已经有40年了,我从来没有见过最近两个月所见的东西。
37:54 A whole career, a whole life dedicating to the love of computers as my main focus for the working hours and then some, suddenly completely upended, suddenly completely rewritten.
整个职业生涯,一生都致力于对计算机的热爱,作为我工作时间的主要关注点,然后有些突然完全颠覆,突然完全重写。
Of course I’m delirious.
当然我很神志不清。
Who looking at this reality is not?
谁不正视这个现实呢?
If you are not delirious or at the very least very excited…
如果你没有神志不清或者至少很兴奋……
Actually, I guess that’s not even true.
事实上,我想这根本不是真的。
If you’re not recognizing the gravity of the moment, that’s the delusion.
如果你没有认识到当下的严重性,那就是错觉。
That’s the psychosis.
这就是精神病。
The psychosis is believing that the world is barely different.
精神病相信世界几乎没有什么不同。
We just have some electronic parrots reciting things to us.
我们只是有一些电子鹦鹉给我们背诵。
Now, in my opinion, the reason this argument is actually brought up is because people are not able to see the fruits of the progress.
现在,我认为,之所以提出这个论点,实际上是因为人们看不到进步的成果。
That goes to your point earlier.
这就是你之前的观点。
Where is the amazing software?
这么神奇的软件在哪里?
38:49 Why isn’t American GDP running at 12% year over year?
为什么美国GDP同比增速没有达到12%?
First of all, give it a minute.
首先,请稍等一下。
It hasn’t even been a year, goddammit.
还不到一年,该死。
But second of all, I feel on my own account, I have actually brought the pudding.
但其次,我觉得我自己确实带来了布丁。
Omarchy Quattro launched on Friday.
Omarchy Quattro 于周五推出。
It’s been downloaded by tens of thousands of people.
它已被数万人下载。
And they like it.
他们喜欢它。
They like it a lot.
他们非常喜欢它。
We should mention that going to Perplexity here, Omarchy is a highly opinionated Arch Linux-based desktop distribution centered on the Hyprland Wayland tiling compositor.
我们应该提到 Perplexity,Omarchy 是一个高度固执的基于 Arch Linux 的桌面发行版,以 Hyprland Wayland 平铺合成器为中心。
39:17 It was created by David Heinemeier Hansson, DHH, as a polished developer workstation set up with a cohesive visual style and many everyday tools already configured.
它由 DHH 的 David Heinemeier Hansson 创建,是一个精美的开发人员工作站,具有连贯的视觉风格和许多已配置的日常工具。
Let me put it.
让我说一下。
39:39 Omarchy is a beautiful, modern, and opinionated Linux system.
Omarchy 是一个美丽、现代、固执己见的 Linux 系统。
It’s an alternative operating system to macOS and Windows, and it’s freaking amazing.
它是 macOS 和 Windows 的替代操作系统,而且非常神奇。
And the Quattro thing is you’re pushing towards the age of agents.
Quattro 的事情是你正在推动代理时代的到来。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
39:54 That’s the latest version that we just dropped out, which is also funny.
这是我们刚刚退出的最新版本,这也很有趣。
The Omarchy project is only a year old and a little bit.
Omarchy 项目只有一年的历史。
I started it last summer in between sessions at the 24 Hours of Le Mans-
我是去年夏天在勒芒 24 小时耐力赛间隙开始练习的——
40:08 …
……
where I had watched one too many YouTube videos on Linux Ricing and got bitten by that bug.
我在 Linux Ricing 上观看了太多 YouTube 视频,并被这个错误所困扰。
Started working on this second iteration of my attempt at creating a better Linux operating system.
开始尝试创建更好的 Linux 操作系统的第二次迭代。
The first iteration we talked about last time was called Omakub, was built on top of an existing system called Ubuntu, and it was fine.
我们上次谈到的第一个迭代称为 Omakub,它构建在名为 Ubuntu 的现有系统之上,而且效果很好。
But the ambition I was able to pour into the new version, Omarchy, because I started seven layers deeper down the stack, was completely different.
但我能够倾注到新版本 Omarchy 中的雄心壮志是完全不同的,因为我开始了堆栈更深的七层。
But it was still done in a pre-agentic world.
但这仍然是在前代理世界中完成的。
I wrote all those bash scripts by hand in the beginning, and then I got to see the midway point where things changed over.
我一开始就手工编写了所有这些 bash 脚本,然后我看到了事情发生变化的中间点。
40:52 I did a couple of versions of Omarchy that had partial agent acceleration, and then three months ago, it was full throttle, 100%, everything is written by agents but steered by me.
我做了几个 Omarchy 版本,它们有部分代理加速,然后三个月前,它是全速运转的,100%,一切都是由代理编写的,但由我引导。
And that just ended up being a very different experience and a very different operating system because I was suddenly granted a limitless ceiling on my ambition.
这最终成为一种非常不同的体验和一个非常不同的操作系统,因为我突然被赋予了我的野心的无限上限。
I could look at any feature in Windows, on Mac, on other Linux systems and say, “I want that,” and the agents would deliver.
我可以查看 Windows、Mac 或其他 Linux 系统中的任何功能,然后说“我想要这个”,然后代理就会提供。
So everything I wanted was suddenly within reach, which meant that I got a little delirious.
于是我想要的一切突然变得触手可及,这意味着我有点神志不清。
Who would not get delirious if suddenly a genie pops out of the bottle and says, “You can have whatever you want.
如果一个精灵突然从瓶子里跳出来,说:“你可以拥有任何你想要的东西,谁会不感到疯狂呢?
Every feature you’ve ever dreamed of in an operating system-
您在操作系统中梦想的每一个功能 -
41:47 …
……
I can deliver them to you, most of them in five minutes, a few in 20, and if we really go hog wild, it’s gonna take me two hours.”
我可以把它们送给你,大部分在五分钟内,少数在二十分钟内,如果我们真的疯狂的话,我需要两个小时。”
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
41:54 Have you seen Requiem for a Dream, the movie?
你看过电影《梦之安魂曲》吗?
So there’s a drug-like effect here.
所以这里有类似药物的效果。
I find it personally– We’ll talk about many levels of this, but it is overwhelming how much power is placed in our hands so suddenly, and it’s very hard to know, it’s like with “The Hobbit” or something, what to do with it, and I find myself truly overwhelmed with the multitasking on the verge of almost burnt out.
我个人认为——我们会讨论很多层面的问题,但突然间有多少权力交到我们手中,这是压倒性的,而且很难知道,就像《霍比特人》之类的,如何处理它,我发现自己真的被多任务处理压垮了,几乎快要精疲力尽了。
Super excited about so many things, but ultimately looking back, you want to focus on one thing and really ship.
对很多事情都超级兴奋,但最终回想起来,你想专注于一件事并真正实现。
I don’t have that sense.
我没有那种感觉。
42:31 I don’t have the sense of overwhelm.
我没有压倒性的感觉。
I don’t have the sense of dread.
我没有恐惧感。
I don’t have the sense of distortion because I have a mission.
我没有扭曲感,因为我有使命。
I’m going somewhere, and therefore, I can channel all this new power towards-
我要去某个地方,因此,我可以将所有这些新的力量引导到-
Yeah, it’s wonderful.
是的,太棒了。
a singular goal and outcome, creating the perfect computer.
单一的目标和结果,创造完美的计算机。
42:48 And therefore, all my investigations with AI are focused towards that end.
因此,我对人工智能的所有研究都集中在这个目标上。
Now, I also have a day job.
现在,我也有一份日常工作。
And we also use agents there, and that’s also targeted towards sort of specific outcomes.
我们也在那里使用代理,这也是针对特定结果的。
But with the Omarchy experience, I got to tap in straight in the back of my head and increase the bandwidth between ideas arriving in my brain and software emerging on the screen.
但有了 Omarchy 的经验,我可以直接在我的脑后进行挖掘,增加我大脑中的想法和屏幕上出现的软件之间的带宽。
It was like going from dial-up- …
这就像从拨号-...
to fiber.
到纤维。
I think on your podcast, Elon talked about the actual human bandwidth-
我想在你的播客上,埃隆谈到了实际的人类带宽——
43:35 …
……
that Neuralink and other projects are trying to accelerate.
Neuralink 和其他项目正在努力加速。
Like, the bandwidth we’re communicating over right now is quite low because we’re limited by our cognition.
就像,我们现在通信的带宽非常低,因为我们受到认知的限制。
We’re limited by the rate of speech.
我们受到语速的限制。
You’re not limited by those things when you’re working with a swarm of agents.
当您与一大群代理一起工作时,您就不会受到这些事情的限制。
Now, let me caveat this by saying, if I’d heard myself talk like this-
现在,让我警告一下,如果我听到自己这样说话——
44:03 nine months ago, I would probably have used the label AI psychosis.
九个月前,我可能会使用人工智能精神病这个标签。
I think it would be fitting because nine months ago when people were talking like this, they weren’t shipping, and I think that’s the ultimate difference, that there were people who saw this early.
我认为这很合适,因为九个月前,当人们这样谈论时,他们还没有发货,我认为这就是最终的区别,有人很早就看到了这一点。
I was not actually that early.
其实我没那么早。
As we’ve talked about, I was rather skeptical, and I was using AI in certain ways, but I was not the first person who downloaded Claude Code.
正如我们所讨论的,我相当怀疑,而且我以某些方式使用人工智能,但我不是第一个下载 Claude Code 的人。
I think Boris released that in end of February.
我认为鲍里斯在二月底发布了该消息。
I don’t think I installed Claude Code until September.
我想我直到 9 月份才安装了 Claude Code。
So there was about six months there where pioneers saw these glimmers of what the future was gonna look like.
因此,在大约六个月的时间里,先驱们看到了未来的曙光。
It wasn’t there yet because the intelligence wasn’t there.
它还不存在,因为情报还不存在。
The harnesses weren’t there, but they could see the glimmers.
安全带不在那里,但他们可以看到微光。
I couldn’t.
我不能。
44:48 Tobi, Tobi Lutke, the CEO of Shopify and now my partner in crime on this Omarchy project in part, he’s gotten pilled with Omarchy as well.
Tobi,Tobi Lutke,Shopify 的首席执行官,现在是我在这个 Omarchy 项目上的犯罪伙伴,他也被 Omarchy 所困扰。
He saw these things very early, and he tried to tell me, and I wasn’t seeing it.
他很早就看到了这些事情,并试图告诉我,但我没有看到。
I was not seeing what he was seeing.
我没有看到他所看到的。
You were a hater.
你是一个仇恨者。
Yes.
是的。
45:08 I was still on Earth.
我当时还在地球上。
And he was…
而他是……
He had already boarded the rocket and was heading towards space.
他已经登上了火箭,正朝着太空飞去。
I remember actually reading his memo to the company, the AI memo, and thinking, “Ah, seems a little much.” Like, you’re making a big deal out of something that I cannot yet feel is a tangible thing.
我记得我读过他给公司的备忘录,即人工智能备忘录,然后想,“啊,似乎有点多了。”就像,你把一些我还感觉不到有形的东西小题大做。
45:32 Because where’s the output of this?
因为这个的输出在哪里?
I try using it.
我尝试使用它。
It writes code I don’t like.
它写了我不喜欢的代码。
It wants to interrupt me all the time.
它总是想打扰我。
Where are you getting this from?
你从哪里得到这个?
So I get it.
所以我明白了。
I totally get it.
我完全明白了。
If you’ve not seen what the current quality of intelligence can produce, of course you’re gonna look at someone and go like, “They sound a little nutty,” because all your experience up until this point would tell you that they are nutty.
如果你还没有看到当前的智力质量可以产生什么,你当然会看着某人并说,“他们听起来有点疯狂”,因为到目前为止你的所有经验都会告诉你他们很疯狂。
Because if you look at the history of computer programming, for the last 40, 50 years, people have been promising that regular people could write code just by talking.
因为如果你回顾一下计算机编程的历史,在过去的 40、50 年里,人们一直承诺普通人只需通过交谈就可以编写代码。
We’re gonna have fourth generation languages.
我们将拥有第四代语言。
46:12 Lisp was once upon a time presented, Smalltalk was presented as these environments that would let regular people write their own applications, and none of it came true in the sense beyond, like, Microsoft Access databases or Excel spreadsheets.
Lisp 曾经被提出,Smalltalk 被提出作为这些环境,让普通人编写自己的应用程序,但除了 Microsoft Access 数据库或 Excel 电子表格之外,这一切都没有实现。
Those are end user programming environments, but it’s nothing like what we’re able to do now.
这些是最终用户编程环境,但这与我们现在能够做的完全不同。
And then, I mean, I’m not even talking about end user.
然后,我的意思是,我什至没有谈论最终用户。
I’m talking as me, someone who’s been programming for 25 years, seeing the output and the acceleration and the quality and then shipping it, and I think that’s what’s gonna change the entire conversation quite quickly.
我是在以我自己的身份说话,一个已经编程了 25 年的人,看到了输出、加速和质量,然后交付了它,我认为这将很快改变整个对话。
46:49 The few laggards who are still on the fence about whether this is actually useful, who are still trapped in a meme from early ’25 about mechanical parrots, they’re simply going to be overwhelmed by the evidence that’s about to flood over them.
少数落后者仍然对这是否真的有用持观望态度,他们仍然陷入 25 年初关于机械鹦鹉的迷因中,他们只会被即将淹没他们的证据所淹没。
So I hope to see projects like Omarchy, several of them that, like, really show agent first.
所以我希望看到像 Omarchy 这样的项目,其中有几个项目首先真正展示了代理。
It’s coming.
它来了。
47:15 All of it is coming.
这一切都即将到来。
In the spaces, in the silly spaces that I already mentioned, like video editing, all these kinds of apps that are like Typora- …
在我已经提到过的那些愚蠢的空间里,比如视频编辑,所有这些类型的应用程序,比如 Typora——……
47:17 this kind of stuff.
这种东西。
It’s gonna come, and I’ve already seen the early inklings of this.
它总会到来,我已经看到了它的早期迹象。
47:26 One of the really neat features about Omarchy is that it has a far more robust plugin system that allows you to extend your operating system and rewrite it really in terms of its user interface and its panels and its features by creating your own plugins that can be cloned off of tools we ship in the box.
Omarchy 真正巧妙的功能之一是它有一个更强大的插件系统,允许您扩展您的操作系统,并通过创建您自己的插件(可以从我们随附的工具克隆)来真正重写它的用户界面、面板和功能。
For example, say you want a different calendar.
例如,假设您想要不同的日历。
Omarchy ships with a calendar.
Omarchy 附带日历。
You click the little clock.
你点击小时钟。
It pops up a calendar, and it doesn’t have iCal support, for example.
例如,它会弹出一个日历,并且不支持 iCal。
It doesn’t consume your appointments.
它不会占用您的约会。
There’s about 17 implementations of that already, and in three days, we had 330 plugins on the Omarchy plugin marketplace.
已经有大约 17 个实现,三天之内,我们在 Omarchy 插件市场上就有了 330 个插件。
I have never seen growth like that with any project I’ve ever been involved in.
在我参与过的任何项目中,我从未见过这样的增长。
48:23 I’ve never seen participation that broadly.
我从未见过如此广泛的参与。
I’ve never seen that many people be able to create software that’s meaningful for them—also be usable for others so quickly.
我从来没有见过这么多人能够如此迅速地创建对他们有意义的软件,也可以供其他人使用。
All of it is driven by the fact that Omarchy ships a set of skills that tells any agent you bring to it how to create extensions to the operating system, and therefore affording you the vision of the true malleable…
所有这一切都是由以下事实驱动的:Omarchy 提供了一套技能,告诉您所使用的任何代理如何创建操作系统的扩展,从而为您提供真正可塑性的愿景……
I was about to say agentic.
我正想说代理。
I hate that fucking word.
我讨厌这个该死的词。
And the reason in part I hate that word is, first of all, it’s become marketing slop speak- …
我讨厌这个词的部分原因是,首先,它已经成为营销废话——……
at this point.
此时。
Like, it’s just slapped onto everything.
就像,它只是被打在所有东西上。
I wish we had a different word that just meant AI doing stuff.
我希望我们有一个不同的词来表示人工智能在做事。
Vibe coding feels wrong, too.
Vibe 编码也感觉不对劲。
It does, because vibe coding to me smells exactly like script kiddies did in the early 2000s.
确实如此,因为对我来说,vive 编码的味道与 2000 年代初期的脚本小子一模一样。
49:09 People applying PHP scripts they just downloaded offline that they don’t understand anything of.
人们应用他们刚刚离线下载的 PHP 脚本,但他们对此一无所知。
And while, I mean, that’s true in the sense that much of the vibe coding, including my own vibe coded projects, and as I just mentioned, I have several.
虽然,我的意思是,从很多振动编码的意义上来说这是正确的,包括我自己的振动编码项目,正如我刚才提到的,我有几个。
I’ve written things in C++.
我用 C++ 写过东西。
I’ve written things in Rust.
我用 Rust 写过东西。
Rust—I hate Rust with a passion.
Rust——我非常讨厌 Rust。
Rust to me is like pouring acid in my eyes when I have to look at the code.
对我来说,Rust 就像当我必须查看代码时向我的眼睛里倒入酸一样。
Wait, wait, wait, wait.
等等,等等,等等,等等。
49:42 Why do you hate Rust?
你为什么讨厌 Rust?
It is, in my opinion, the ugliest programming language-
在我看来,它是最丑陋的编程语言——
Oh
噢
…
……
49:46 that has been invented-
已经发明了——
Yeah
是啊
…
……
49:47 in probably the last 40 years.
大概是在过去 40 年里。
So it’s the opposite of Rails and Ruby.
所以它与 Rails 和 Ruby 相反。
It’s the opposite.
事实恰恰相反。
49:50 But-
但是——
You’ve written it
你已经写了
…
……
49:53 I’ve written applications in Rust because the output of Rust is actually amazing.
我用 Rust 编写了应用程序,因为 Rust 的输出实际上是惊人的。
The memory safety, the fact that it’s a system language, the fact that it’s highly efficient and so forth is incredible.
内存安全性、它是一种系统语言这一事实、它的高效性等等都是令人难以置信的。
So Rust, to me, can both be the most repugnant programming language ever devised for human consumption and a wonderful platform for agentic engineering.
因此,对我来说,Rust 既是有史以来为人类消费而设计的最令人反感的编程语言,又是代理工程的绝佳平台。
These two truths can coexist easily in my head.
这两个真理可以很容易地在我的脑海中共存。
Do you think that there can be a point at which we can just call agentic engineering programming?
您认为在某个时刻我们可以称之为代理工程编程吗?
50:24 Can we just change what programming means?
我们可以改变编程的含义吗?
‘Cause who’s actually going to be programming the old-school way in a few months?
因为几个月后谁会真正采用老式方式进行编程呢?
I don’t think we should reuse the term because for me, programming implies an understanding of certain primitives, loops, conditions, variables.
我认为我们不应该重复使用这个术语,因为对我来说,编程意味着理解某些原语、循环、条件、变量。
50:36 All the constructs of programming languages are what constitutes programming itself, not the creation of programs.
编程语言的所有结构都是编程本身的组成部分,而不是程序的创建。
Because you could say in the pre-agentic era, well, your CEO is programming.
因为你可以说,在前代理时代,你的首席执行官正在编程。
He’s hiring a bunch of programmers, he’s telling them what to do, and out comes software that he can sell.
他正在雇用一群程序员,告诉他们该做什么,然后开发出可以出售的软件。
51:05 Eh, I don’t think most people would call that CEO a programmer, and I don’t think we should call the vibe coder a programmer either.
呃,我不认为大多数人会称 CEO 为程序员,我也不认为我们应该称 vivi 程序员为程序员。
And vibe coding, if we define it here, is you tell an agent to build software for you.
如果我们在这里定义它,振动编码就是你告诉代理为你构建软件。
You do not look at the implementation.
你不看实现。
That, to me, is what separates vibe coding from programming or, let’s say, agent-accelerated development.
对我来说,这就是氛围编码与编程或代理加速开发的区别。
But don’t you think, so to push back a little bit, don’t you think a programmer, old-school programmer, you, doing agentic engineering is a different kind of agentic engineering than a non-programmer doing agentic engineering?
但是你不认为,所以退一步来说,你不认为程序员,老派程序员,你,做代理工程是一种不同于非程序员做代理工程的代理工程吗?
51:26 What I mean is, if you know what a for loop is, if you know what function programming is, if you know some of the basic good principles of software engineering, the way you do natural language-based agentic engineering will be different and more systematic, and the scale and the variety of things you can actually build is much bigger than a vibe coder.
我的意思是,如果你知道什么是 for 循环,如果你知道什么是函数编程,如果你知道软件工程的一些基本良好原则,那么你进行基于自然语言的代理工程的方式将会有所不同,并且更加系统化,并且你实际可以构建的东西的规模和种类比 vibe 编码器大得多。
I’m just gonna extend the pro case here a little bit just for the sake of the argument.
为了便于论证,我将在这里稍微扩展一下专业案例。
Right.
正确的。
I actually think for a while it was to my deficit to know as much as I know about programming because I was instructing the agents to do things as I prescribed them to do, and they were very good at that.
事实上,有一段时间,我认为对编程的了解是我的不足,因为我指导代理人按照我规定的方式做事,而他们非常擅长这一点。
52:07 And in the first agentic moment, let’s not call it an era, it was something that lasted three, three months.
在第一个代理时刻,我们不要称之为一个时代,它持续了三三个月。
Moment…
瞬间……
In the first agentic moment, that felt very productive.
在第一个代理时刻,这感觉非常富有成效。
I could get more productivity out of telling the agents what to do in the way I would’ve done it, and I used all of my experience as a programmer to do just that.
通过按照我的方式告诉代理该做什么,我可以获得更高的生产力,并且我利用了我作为程序员的所有经验来做到这一点。
Then I was a little late on the next moment, and the next moment allowed me, allowed anyone, to describe outcomes- …
然后我下一刻就晚了一点,下一刻就允许我,允许任何人,描述结果——……
to describe problems to the agents and get better solutions than if you had a programmer prescribe the path.
向代理描述问题并获得比让程序员指定路径更好的解决方案。
See, okay, so we’re having fun arguing here.
瞧,好吧,所以我们在这里争论得很开心。
53:05 Well, so are you suggesting that there’s problems for which programmers are worse than non-programmers at agentic engineering?
那么,您是否认为在代理工程中,程序员比非程序员更难解决一些问题?
100%.
100%。
53:16 And the reason I say that, let’s define it here.
我这么说的原因是,让我们在这里定义它。
The reason I say that is there’s a lot of programmers who are not very good product managers.
我这么说的原因是有很多程序员并不是很好的产品经理。
Software is product management.
软件就是产品管理。
What should it do?
它应该做什么?
Who should it do it for?
应该为谁做?
How should it do it?
应该怎么做呢?
How should it look?
它应该是什么样子?
What’s our priorities?
我们的首要任务是什么?
What do we start with first?
我们首先从什么开始?
What does version one include?
第一版包含哪些内容?
All of those skills are not easily or equally distributed across all programmers.
所有这些技能并不容易或平等地分配给所有程序员。
And in the agentic era where you are letting an agent, an AI, do the implementation, these are the skills you need.
在代理时代,你让代理、人工智能来执行实施,这些都是你需要的技能。
And I happen to sit in both camps, and this is why I love this moment.
我碰巧同时属于这两个阵营,这就是我喜欢这一刻的原因。
53:58 I still get to live a little bit in the old world where I look at the full implementation because there are domains and areas where I feel that still brings value, and then I also live in the future.
我仍然会生活在旧世界中,在那里我会看到完整的实施,因为我觉得在某些领域和领域仍然会带来价值,然后我也生活在未来。
And as I said, when I created AmaWrite, I’ve not looked at a single line of that C++.
正如我所说,当我创建 AmaWrite 时,我没有看过 C++ 的任何一行。
I actually made it a point to myself that I was gonna treat it as an experiment.
事实上,我向自己明确表示,我要把它当作一个实验。
This is 100% a black box.
这100%是一个黑匣子。
I will treat it as though I was any other user who had opinions about how their digital typewriter should work, and therefore felt like it was a fair experiment as if a writer of any other sort who had opinions about how software should be done and how it should work.
我会把它当作任何其他用户,对他们的数字打字机应该如何工作有意见,因此感觉这是一个公平的实验,就像任何其他类型的作家对软件应该如何完成和如何工作有意见一样。
54:39 As you mentioned, video editors who know exactly where they don’t like what Adobe Premiere’s doing and how it could be better, but don’t have the capacities to improve it- …
正如您所提到的,视频编辑人员确切地知道他们不喜欢 Adobe Premiere 所做的事情以及它如何可以做得更好,但没有能力改进它 - ...
how that could be.
怎么会这样。
The pushback, though, I think what programmers do well, good programmers do well, is systematic design, like think in terms of systems- …
不过,我认为程序员做得好的、好的程序员做得好的,是系统设计,就像从系统角度思考一样——……
54:50 and rigor.
和严谨。
And I think still, and probably for a long time to come, even natural language-based control of agentic systems will require a certain kind of rigor.
我仍然认为,并且可能在未来很长一段时间内,即使是基于自然语言的代理系统控制也将需要某种严格性。
Not overly structured rigor, but really explain very specifically the goals of the system, how to do the verification, what kind of security testing.
没有过于严格的结构,而是非常具体地解释了系统的目标,如何进行验证,什么样的安全测试。
You wanna do all those kinds of things.
你想做所有这些事情。
Although then to push back on that, the system will…
尽管随后要反驳这一点,系统将……
should be smart longer term.
从长远来看应该是明智的。
I would’ve said the same thing six months ago.
六个月前我也会说同样的话。
Yeah, so this has changed.
是的,所以这已经改变了。
And I think the same thing would’ve been true six months ago.
我认为六个月前也是如此。
55:30 What I have found since, especially even just the last few weeks of the agentically accelerated development of Mach-E, is that more often than not, I have the humility to recognize that the agent knows best.
从那时起,尤其是在 Mach-E 代理加速开发的最后几周,我发现,我常常谦虚地认识到代理最了解。
You can legitimately say, “Make sure it’s secure.”
你可以理直气壮地说:“确保它是安全的。”
Correct.
正确的。
55:52 And it would know more about what that entails.
它会更多地了解这意味着什么。
Now, you’re laughing-
现在,你在笑——
What a crazy world.
多么疯狂的世界啊。
…
……
55:59 but it’s true.
但这是真的。
And in fact-
而事实上——
Oh my God.
天哪。
…
……
56:02 a good parallel to this is the AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md files.
与此类似的是 AGENTS.md/CLAUDE.md 文件。
There was a hot moment where it was all the rage about micro-optimizing that.
曾经有一段时间,微优化风靡一时。
Oh, you tell your agent this-
哦,你告诉你的经纪人这个-
56:14 …
……
you tell your agent that, and you ended up with this huge file of instructions for your agent.
你告诉你的代理人,你最终会得到一份给你的代理人的巨大的说明文件。
One of the things that Boris, working on Claude Code, shared in an interview recently about Opus 5 was that the system prompt that they ship for Opus 5, and presumably also Fable, shrunk by 80% because the agent not only needed far less human instruction, it was actually being damaged by overly prescriptive humans.
参与 Claude Code 工作的 Boris 最近在一次有关 Opus 5 的采访中分享的一件事是,系统提示他们为 Opus 5 以及《神鬼寓言》发货的提示缩小了 80%,因为该代理不仅需要更少的人类指令,而且实际上会被过于规范的人类损坏。
And any programmer who’s had a pointy-haired boss knows exactly what that is like.
任何一个有过尖头发老板的程序员都知道那是什么样的。
When the boss walks into the room, doesn’t know anything, starts telling you how to program, how to code.
当老板走进房间时,什么都不懂,就开始告诉你如何编程,如何编码。
What do you do?
你做什么工作?
You sulk.
你生闷气。
You write shittier code if you’re mandated to do things that are against your better judgment.
如果你被要求做一些违背你更好判断的事情,你就会写出更糟糕的代码。
Why would an agent not be the same?
为什么代理不一样?
Actually, to push back against myself, I do find the actual skill I’m currently developing, which along those lines is probably what everybody’s trying to develop, is not to overspecify things, is to get out of the system’s way.
事实上,为了反驳自己,我确实发现我目前正在开发的实际技能,沿着这些思路可能是每个人都在努力开发的,不是过度指定事物,而是摆脱系统的阻碍。
Of course.
当然。
Is to specify enough to provide a kinda high-level vision and guidance.
是要指定足够的内容以提供某种高层次的愿景和指导。
It’s even better because you don’t even need that.
这甚至更好,因为你甚至不需要它。
57:25 The fundamental insight of modern software development came from the agile software development movement.
现代软件开发的基本见解来自敏捷软件开发运动。
In the late ’90s, early 2000s, a group of smart, honest, and brave people came together and said, “The way we’ve been trying to do software development for the last 40 to 50 years has not worked, will not work.
在 20 世纪 90 年代末、2000 年代初,一群聪明、诚实、勇敢的人聚集在一起说:“过去 40 到 50 年来我们一直在尝试进行软件开发的方式没有奏效,也不会奏效。
We’ve been trying to specify upfront what software should look like.
我们一直在尝试预先指定软件应该是什么样子。
We thought that we could ask humans what they wanted, write it all down, apply our systems thinking and our rigor to a spec sheet, hand that spec sheet over to a group of programmers who would then implement just that, and everyone would be happy.” Well, guess what?
我们认为我们可以询问人们想要什么,将其全部写下来,将我们的系统思维和严谨性应用到规格表中,然后将该规格表交给一组程序员,然后由他们来实现,每个人都会很高兴。”嗯,你猜怎么着?
No one was happy.
没有人高兴。
Because no one knows what they want until they receive it.
因为在收到之前,没有人知道自己想要什么。
58:13 You don’t know what a program should do until you play with it.
在你使用一个程序之前,你不知道它应该做什么。
So in the agentic age, you should resist the temptation to be overly specific upfront.
因此,在代理时代,您应该抵制预先过于具体的诱惑。
Be as vague as you can to manifest something, then interact with the something.
尽可能模糊地表达某些事物,然后与该事物互动。
The way you arrive at good software is you write a little bit of software, and then you try to use it.
获得优秀软件的方法是编写一些软件,然后尝试使用它。
It is in the process of using software that you discover what you really want.
在使用软件的过程中,您会发现自己真正想要什么。
It’s where you discover what’s important and what’s not important.
在这里你可以发现什么是重要的,什么是不重要的。
And agents are incredible at allowing you to bumble into this experience of realizing what you want because you don’t know what you want.
代理人令人难以置信地让你陷入这种实现你想要的经历,因为你不知道自己想要什么。
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
58:51 And I’ve actually done something similar to what you suggested, which is implement different designs and totally different implementations, and then I create HTML pages for myself, PHP pages, where I vote on what I like more and so on.
我实际上做了一些类似于你建议的事情,即实现不同的设计和完全不同的实现,然后我为自己创建 HTML 页面、PHP 页面,在其中我对我更喜欢的内容进行投票等等。
Yes.
是的。
And it does this iterative thing, and it’s very nice and fun.
它会做这种迭代的事情,非常好而且有趣。
59:06 The interaction with the agentic system, if you create a nice interface for yourself, it can be super fun, and you’re focusing on the design part and the most fun parts of the design part.
与代理系统的交互,如果你为自己创建一个漂亮的界面,它会非常有趣,并且你专注于设计部分和设计部分中最有趣的部分。
Correct.
正确的。
59:18 And this is what humans are really good at.
而这正是人类真正擅长的。
Yeah, taste.
是的,尝尝。
Differential evaluation.
差异化评价。
59:21 You give me three options, I pick one of them.
你给我三个选择,我选其中之一。
Now, humans actually fall off a cliff if you give them 22 options.
现在,如果给人类 22 个选择,他们实际上就会从悬崖上掉下去。
That’s the paradox of choice.
这就是选择的悖论。
But you give them three options, they very quickly within a split second will tell you what they like.
但你给他们三个选择,他们很快就会在一瞬间告诉你他们喜欢什么。
There are all these ways that exploit the fact that humans will make these snap judgments that are actually pre-intellectual, right?
所有这些方法都利用了这样一个事实:人类会做出这些实际上是前智力的快速判断,对吗?
Like, they’re coming from the gut, and then they arrive up in the brain, and the brain tries to rationalize why the gut said what it said.
就像,它们来自肠道,然后到达大脑,大脑试图合理化肠道所说的原因。
And if you’re willing to let go of some of that intellectual pre-processing rationalization and simply let your gut drive, the agentic age is a revelation.
如果你愿意放弃一些智力预处理的合理化,而只是让你的直觉驱动,那么代理时代就是一个启示。
So this is a fascinating thing to ask you because you have sort of famously for a long time talked about, like, detailed chiseling of beautiful Rails Ruby code, and now you have switched in a matter of months to not doing that.
所以问你这个问题是一件很有趣的事情,因为你很长一段时间以来一直在谈论,比如,详细凿凿美丽的 Rails Ruby 代码,但现在你在几个月内就不再这样做了。
1:00:06 So, like, what is your current setup look like?
那么,您当前的设置是什么样的?
‘Cause you’re, I assume, are still looking for the beauty, for the chiseling, for the crafting, but you’re just crafting in a different medium.
因为,我认为,你仍在寻找美感、凿凿、工艺,但你只是在不同的媒介中进行工艺。
And at different levels of abstraction.
并且处于不同的抽象层次。
1:00:35 When I’m working in Ruby code, and we have a lot of Ruby code because it’s in our entire business, and I’m asking agents to make changes to that code, I still sweat the details.
当我使用 Ruby 代码工作时,我们有很多 Ruby 代码,因为它涉及我们的整个业务,并且我要求代理对这些代码进行更改,但我仍然担心细节。
What I’m coming to realize is that the economic payoff of that sweat is diminishing rapidly.
我逐渐意识到,这些汗水所带来的经济回报正在迅速减少。
The reason why I, for 25 years, was sweating every line of code so judiciously was because I knew the payoff of keeping an architecture coherent and malleable was software that could change and evolve-
25 年来,我之所以如此明智地编写每一行代码,是因为我知道保持架构的连贯性和可塑性的回报是软件可以改变和发展——
1:01:16 …
……
quickly with a small team, and not exorbitant cost, and not introducing a bunch of bugs when you change one thing over the other.
用一个小团队快速完成,成本不高,当你改变一件事而不是另一件事时,也不会引入一堆错误。
That was the driving economic argument for why you should write beautiful code, ’cause beautiful code is easier to understand, it is simpler, it is more malleable.
这是为什么你应该编写漂亮的代码的主要经济论据,因为漂亮的代码更容易理解,更简单,更具可塑性。
That was premised on humans doing the modifications.
这是以人类进行修改为前提的。
I think it is an open question to which degree this still matters.
我认为这在多大程度上仍然重要是一个悬而未决的问题。
Now, it does matter, and the reason I say that, at least for the moment, is that tokens are still scarce.
现在,这确实很重要,我之所以这么说,至少目前是因为代币仍然稀缺。
At this moment in time, we are all token limited.
此时此刻,我们的代币都是有限的。
Well, not all, but anyone who doesn’t have endless budgets are token limited.
好吧,不是全部,但任何没有无限预算的人都会受到象征性的限制。
1:02:03 So therefore, there is great payoff to writing systems that agents have an easier time dealing with and evolving without having to relearn the entire context.
因此,编写系统可以带来巨大的回报,使代理可以更轻松地处理和发展,而无需重新学习整个上下文。
Just like humans, if they can make iterations and changes to the code base without wrecking the architecture, they can make the next change just as cheaply as the last one.
就像人类一样,如果他们能够在不破坏架构的情况下对代码库进行迭代和更改,那么他们就可以像上一次更改一样便宜地进行下一次更改。
And this is the classic ball of mud where you end up with a system that’s a ball of mud-
这是经典的泥球,你最终会得到一个泥球系统 -
1:02:31 …
……
because it’s just put together in a way where nothing is connected and it’s just a real mess, right?
因为它只是以一种没有任何联系的方式放在一起,而且真的很混乱,对吗?
I’ve seen that with agents, and I’ve seen it in our own code bases where, again, the first PR is, like, mediocre of quality, and then if you add another PR on top of that, and then five more down the line, it’s not very good, right?
我在代理中看到了这一点,并且在我们自己的代码库中看到了这一点,同样,第一个 PR 的质量很一般,然后如果您在此基础上添加另一个 PR,然后再添加五个 PR,那就不是很好,对吧?
So there’s still a payoff to that, but that payoff is premised on our current moment.
所以这仍然是有回报的,但这种回报是以我们当前的时刻为前提的。
I am now able to…
我现在能够……
And this is, by the way, where the AI psychosis really comes in, when you try to extrapolate what nine months from now it’s gonna look like.
顺便说一句,当你试图推断 9 个月后它会是什么样子时,这就是人工智能精神病真正出现的地方。
What two years from now it’s gonna look like.
两年后它会是什么样子。
But as an intellectual experiment, I think the first computer I used was a Commodore 64.
但作为一项智力实验,我认为我使用的第一台计算机是 Commodore 64。
Me too.
我也是。
1:03:10 Cool.
凉爽的。
It had one megahertz CPU and 64K of memory.
它有 1 兆赫的 CPU 和 64K 的内存。
1:03:11 Everyone who wrote software for that machine internalized certain constraints.
每个为该机器编写软件的人都内化了某些限制。
Well, all the constraints.
好吧,所有的限制。
That machine was nothing but constraints.
那台机器除了限制之外什么也没有。
If you put that programmer in a time machine and teleported him or her to 2026 and gave them a modern computer today and said, “Now write me a piece of software,” they’d be lost for a little bit because all their techniques and all their heuristics would simply be wrong.
如果你把那个程序员放在时间机器里,把他或她传送到 2026 年,然后给他们一台现代计算机,然后说:“现在给我写一个软件”,他们会迷失一点,因为他们所有的技术和所有的启发法都是错误的。
Or not wrong, because efficient software is still beautiful.
或者说没有错,因为高效的软件依然美丽。
They would be out of date with the value that they could create.
他们可能已经过时了,无法创造价值。
The amount of optimization you have to apply for a one megahertz computer to produce a video game is just very different from what you have to apply today.
为制作视频游戏而为一兆赫兹计算机应用的优化量与今天必须应用的优化量非常不同。
Just imagine that guy that was programming back then on a Commodore.
想象一下当时在 Commodore 上编程的那个人。
1:03:59 Just remember, remember all those, like what programming felt like and what it meant, highly constrained resources- …
只要记住,记住所有这些,比如编程的感觉和它的含义,高度有限的资源——……
how slow everything is.
一切都是多么缓慢啊。
Beautiful in many ways.
在很多方面都很美丽。
1:04:11 Beautiful.
美丽的。
It’s chiseling.
这是凿子。
1:04:12 But-
但是——
It-
它——
…
……
1:04:15 imagine that person coming now.
想象那个人现在来了。
It’s romantic too, though.
不过,这也很浪漫。
1:04:17 Let’s also imagine that.
我们也想象一下。
This is one of the things, whenever we bemoan modern car culture, for example, right?
例如,每当我们哀叹现代汽车文化时,这就是其中一件事,对吗?
And then we think like, “Oh, wasn’t it better when we all had the horse-drawn carriages and so on?” No, it wasn’t.
然后我们会想,“哦,如果我们都有马车之类的东西不是更好吗?”不,不是。
Do you know what New York smelled like when we used horses for transportation?
你知道当我们用马作为交通工具时纽约闻起来是什么味道吗?
It was an open sewer.
那是一条露天下水道。
They just shat everywhere.
他们只是到处拉屎。
Yeah, but have you played Red Dead Redemption?
是的,但是你玩过 Red Dead Redemption 吗?
1:04:38 You know how cool those cowboys were-
你知道那些牛仔有多酷-
That is the way-
就是这样——
…
……
1:04:42 on the horse?
在马上?
…
……
1:04:43 to experience the nostalgic past, when you don’t get all the furry impulses and senses.
当你没有得到所有毛茸茸的冲动和感官时,去体验怀旧的过去。
So basically programming, old school programming by hand is kinda like the cowboy culture that we romanticize and make movies about.
所以基本上编程,老式的手工编程有点像我们浪漫化和拍电影的牛仔文化。
It’s already happening, the romanticization of handwritten code.
手写代码的浪漫化已经发生了。
1:04:57 And I have some of it because it was a very romantic era.
我有一些因为那是一个非常浪漫的时代。
I’m grateful to have been alive for 20 years of economically valuable handwritten code.
我很庆幸自己已经活了 20 年,手写代码具有经济价值。
That was a, that was a good time.
那是,那是一段美好的时光。
Where handwritten beautiful code was also valuable.
手写的漂亮代码也很有价值。
Correct.
正确的。
1:05:20 Because handwritten beautiful code exists as much today as it did yesterday.
因为手写的漂亮代码今天和昨天一样存在。
There are people who willfully write new video games for the Commodore 64, or for the Sega Mega Drive, or for other vintage consoles.
有些人故意为 Commodore 64、Sega Mega Drive 或其他老式游戏机编写新的视频游戏。
In fact, one of my favorite video games of late is ModRetro’s.
事实上,我最近最喜欢的视频游戏之一是 ModRetro。
Do you know Palmer Luckey’s- …
你知道 Palmer Luckey 的 - ...
side geschäft, which is recreating old consoles.
side geschäft,正在重建旧游戏机。
So he’s recreated the Game Boy.
所以他重新创造了 Game Boy。
Nice.
好的。
It’s amazing.
太棒了。
1:05:51 Look it up.
查一下。
It’s really cool.
真的很酷。
But what’s even cooler than the fact that he recreated this hardware and the original chunkiness, but brought it up to date with sort of modern screens and so on, now they just put out the Nintendo 64 too.
但更酷的是,他重新创建了这个硬件和原来的厚重感,但用现代屏幕等更新了它,现在他们也推出了 Nintendo 64。
Incredible.
极好的。
Super cool.
超级酷。
Wild attention to detail, input lag, and all the other things.
对细节、输入延迟和所有其他事情的极度关注。
But what’s also very cool, that one, I have to wave.
但也很酷的是,那个,我必须挥手。
That one right there, and hover over it, ’cause then you get to see what I’m talking about.
就在那里,将鼠标悬停在它上面,因为这样你就可以明白我在说什么。
That is the Chromatic-
这就是半音阶——
Ah
啊
…
……
1:06:21 Tetris re-implementation.
俄罗斯方块重新实现。
Wow.
哇。
I played a lot of Tetris on the original Game Boy.
我在最初的 Game Boy 上玩了很多俄罗斯方块。
1:06:23 Probably one of my top three favorite games of all time.
可能是我有史以来最喜欢的三款游戏之一。
And they rewrote it with one change.
他们通过一项更改重写了它。
If you hit up, the brick slams.
如果你向上击打,砖块就会砰地一声关上。
And that speeds up the game by about 400%.
这使得游戏速度提高了约 400%。
It is an incredible game, and it’s a new Game Boy game.
这是一款令人难以置信的游戏,也是一款新的 Game Boy 游戏。
1:06:47 I think the Game Boy came out in ’89 or ’88.
我认为 Game Boy 是在 89 或 88 年问世的。
It’s a very old machine.
这是一台非常旧的机器。
The fact that there’s still people writing new old games is awesome, and the reason they do it in part, now here they’re doing it because they want Tetris, but there are people who do it just for the love of the constraints, for the love of the romantic notion of writing that.
事实上,仍然有人在编写新的旧游戏,这真是太棒了,他们这样做的部分原因是,现在他们这样做是因为他们想要俄罗斯方块,但有些人这样做只是因为对限制的热爱,因为对编写俄罗斯方块的浪漫想法的热爱。
Just like there are people still riding around on horses, not to get places fast, but because they like the mode of transportation where it’s a literal biological being below you propelling you forward.
就像有人仍然骑着马到处走,不是为了快速到达目的地,而是因为他们喜欢这种交通方式,在这种交通方式中,真正的生物存在在你下方推动你前进。
And also, we should say that that beautiful code is great training data.
而且,我们应该说,漂亮的代码是很好的训练数据。
1:07:21 So in some sense, the beauty that we’ve built over a few decades-
所以从某种意义上说,我们几十年来所建立的美丽——
Yes
是的
…
……
1:07:30 continues.
继续。
We gave birth to this moment.
我们诞生了这一刻。
1:07:31 What a privilege, and I feel that very personally because I…
这是多么荣幸,我个人也有这样的感觉,因为我……
Almost all of the code I’ve ever written is public code.
我写过的几乎所有代码都是公共代码。
The vast majority of my career has been dedicated to writing open source code, and therefore, some of that code, some of those beautiful lines are in the training set.
我职业生涯的大部分时间都致力于编写开源代码,因此,其中一些代码、一些漂亮的线条都在训练集中。
And in fact, I’ve heard people do this when they write Ruby code.
事实上,我听说人们在编写 Ruby 代码时这样做。
They ask the agent, “Write it like DHH would.”
他们要求代理人:“像 DHH 那样写。”
1:08:01 And they’re pleased with the result, and that does warm my heart a little bit, that I helped give birth to this moment in my tiny little small part.
他们对结果很满意,这确实让我的心感到一点温暖,因为我在我小小的部分中帮助诞生了这一刻。
And anyone else who contributed open source code or any code at all that the agents have had access to over the last, well, entire time programming has been around as a discipline, is now part of these new agent overlords.
任何其他贡献开源代码或代理在过去、整个时间编程一直作为一门学科存在的代码的人,现在都是这些新代理霸主的一部分。
So you don’t have a little bit of sadness that writing beautiful code by hand is now less and less useful?
所以你不会因为现在手工编写漂亮的代码越来越没用而感到悲伤吗?
Am I sad that if I had to get a job tomorrow, it’s unlikely that I could apply my skills in such a way that I would be paid to write these manual lines of code?
如果我明天必须找到一份工作,我不太可能以这样的方式应用我的技能,从而获得报酬来编写这些手动代码行,我是否感到悲伤?
1:08:29 No.
不。
I did it for 25 years.
我这样做了25年。
Like, I wanna see something new here, especially if we’re all gonna live forever, which I hope we don’t.
就像,我想在这里看到一些新的东西,特别是如果我们都能永远活着,但我希望我们不会。
Maybe we’ll get to that.
也许我们会做到这一点。
But, like, I’ve done that.
但是,就像,我已经做到了。
That’s enough.
这就够了。
That’s fine.
没关系。
I don’t feel any more nostalgic about that than I do about the fact that I don’t have to spend my time in the field with a hoe or at the assembly line.
我对此的怀念并不比我不必把时间花在拿着锄头在地里或在装配线上的事实更令人怀念。
Well, hold on a second.
好吧,请稍等。
1:09:01 You are one of the best programmers in the world at writing handcrafted beautiful code, appreciators of beauty with great taste.
您是世界上最擅长编写精美代码的程序员之一,是具有高品味的美欣赏者。
Correct.
正确的。
That has been replaced.
那个已经被替换了。
I say humbly.
我谦虚地说。
Yeah.
是的。
1:09:14 That has been replaced.
那个已经被替换了。
Like, you have now…
就像,你现在有……
You’re just fast evolving, and you’re able to…
你只是在快速发展,并且你能够……
One of your really great qualities is you’re able to change your mind and evolve very quickly.
你真正伟大的品质之一是你能够改变主意并快速发展。
But, like, you had to kill that other person.
但是,就像,你必须杀死另一个人。
I am grateful for every moment that brought me to where I am right now, and therefore, I have also tried, and maybe this did take some practice.
我很感激每一个让我走到现在的时刻,因此,我也尝试过,也许这确实需要一些练习。
1:09:30 I will concede that.
我承认这一点。
Maybe I wasn’t always like this, but stoic philosophy, amor fati, loving your fate, is an incredibly liberating way to live.
也许我并不总是这样,但坚忍的哲学,爱情命运,热爱你的命运,是一种令人难以置信的自由的生活方式。
And you could attack that and say, “Well, that’s a point of privilege.” True, but also I had the same directional point when I didn’t have all this, quote unquote, “privilege.” So I think there’s a way to live and interact with the world where you accept the things you can change and the things you cannot change and fall in love with all of it.
你可以攻击这一点并说:“嗯,这是一个特权点。”确实如此,但当我没有这一切时,我也有同样的方向点,引用不引用,“特权”。所以我认为有一种生活方式和与世界互动的方式,让你接受你可以改变的事情和你不能改变的事情,并爱上这一切。
Fall in love with the fact that the world today has jumped two decades forward into technology industry from where it was last year.
爱上这样一个事实:当今世界已经从去年的水平跃进了二十年,进入了科技行业。
So can we talk about the general anxiety that programmers feel going through the same transformation?
那么我们能谈谈程序员在经历同样的转变时所感受到的普遍焦虑吗?
1:10:24 They’ve maybe gone to university, majored in computer science, dreamed of being programmers and building stuff, high salary, and now everything’s changing, and there’s deep anxiety about, “What do I do when…
他们可能已经上过大学,主修计算机科学,梦想成为程序员和建造东西,高薪,现在一切都在改变,并且存在深深的焦虑,“当……时我该怎么办?”
with my life?” Can you empathize with that, and what the hell are they supposed to do?
用我的命?”你能理解这一点吗?他们到底应该做什么?
Hugely.
巨大的。
1:10:51 Because just because I have this disposition, I’m keenly aware that that’s not evenly distributed, that not everyone sits with this position and this optimism for the future.
因为仅仅因为我有这种性格,我就敏锐地意识到这种分布并不均匀,并不是每个人都持有这种立场并对未来抱有乐观态度。
But I do think I wanna separate things a little bit.
但我确实认为我想把事情分开一点。
I think you’re gonna have a hard time coping with the new reality if the only thing you loved about programming was the mechanical bits of putting the right logical constructs together to produce something other people told you to produce.
我认为,如果你对编程唯一喜欢的就是将正确的逻辑结构放在一起以产生其他人告诉你要产生的东西的机械部分,那么你将很难应对新的现实。
Because that mechanical process is under threat.
因为机械过程正受到威胁。
If you are, as you just mentioned, excited about building things, I don’t think you’re under threat at all.
正如您刚才提到的,如果您对构建事物感到兴奋,我认为您根本不会受到威胁。
In fact, I think there’s a great argument for us needing far more builders than what we have now, and if you look at the employment stats, it’s fuzzy.
事实上,我认为我们需要比现在更多的建筑商,这是有充分理由的,如果你看一下就业统计数据,你会发现它是模糊的。
1:11:53 It’s not clear what’s gonna happen at all.
目前还不清楚会发生什么。
Some stats actually show an increase in openings because the advent of AI is so dramatically lowering the price of programs that people want a lot more programs.
一些统计数据实际上显示职位空缺有所增加,因为人工智能的出现极大地降低了课程的价格,以至于人们想要更多的课程。
This is the classic, the Jevons paradox, that says when the price of something goes down, there’s gonna be more demand for it.
这是经典的杰文斯悖论,即当某种东西的价格下降时,对它的需求就会增加。
And this is the example of the ATMs too.
这也是 ATM 机的例子。
When the ATM originally came, a lot of bank tellers were very afraid for their job because suddenly there was a machine that could dispense money from people’s account.
当ATM机最初出现时,很多银行出纳员都非常担心他们的工作,因为突然出现了一台可以从人们账户上取款的机器。
Well, what the ATMs did was lower the price of a branch, and suddenly banks could afford to open a lot more branches, and we ended up with more bank tellers than we did before.
嗯,自动柜员机的作用是降低了分行的价格,突然之间,银行有能力开设更多的分行,最终我们的银行出纳员比以前更多了。
Now, none of this is guaranteed.
现在,这一切都没有得到保证。
There are also moments where things do change.
也有事情确实发生变化的时刻。
1:12:41 The vast majority of people worked in the fields up until the late 1800s, and then suddenly we got mechanized harvesting tools, and we did not need human labor with a hoe and an ox out there.
直到 1800 年代末,绝大多数人还在田间劳作,然后突然我们有了机械化收割工具,我们不再需要用锄头和牛进行人力劳动。
We had mechanical tools to do that for us.
我们有机械工具可以帮我们做到这一点。
In that moment, are there people who were threatened that their job and their livelihood was at stake?
在那一刻,是否有人受到工作和生计受到威胁的威胁?
Yes.
是的。
Was that a reasonable thing to feel threatened about?
感到受到威胁是合理的事情吗?
Yes.
是的。
The Luddites smashing the weaving machines-
勒德分子砸毁了织布机——
1:13:13 …
……
in England had the same thing.
在英国也有同样的事情。
And I think maybe that’s the better parallel than people working the fields, because these were actually highly skilled professionals doing a job that they liked on rather favorable conditions, not slaving outside in the sun all day.
我认为这可能比在田间工作的人更好,因为这些实际上是高技能的专业人士,在相当有利的条件下做着他们喜欢的工作,而不是整天在阳光下劳作。
But where we live now, would we still like for clothing to be this heavily constrained resource?
但在我们现在居住的地方,我们是否仍然希望服装成为这种严重受限的资源?
Like, what if this T-shirt was $400?
比如说,如果这件 T 恤售价 400 美元怎么办?
I mean, okay, then I’d have two.
我的意思是,好吧,那我就买两个。
Well, my wardrobe probably looks like I have two.
嗯,我的衣柜里可能有两个。
But I think the general progress of mankind depends on productivity improvements.
但我认为人类的总体进步取决于生产力的提高。
And what are productivity improvements?
什么是生产力改进?
This is very important, because in the abstract, I think everyone says, “Yay, productivity.
这非常重要,因为从抽象的角度来看,我想每个人都会说:“是的,生产力。
That’s good.” What did you think, this was all just vibes?
那很好。”你以为这只是共鸣?
No.
不。
1:14:04 Productivity means fewer people to do the same number or the same job.
生产力意味着用更少的人来完成相同数量或相同的工作。
Now, the amount of job you want done may increase, and therefore you get more people, but it also may not.
现在,你想要完成的工作量可能会增加,因此你会得到更多的人,但也可能不会。
There may be pockets where a company just needs a certain set of fixed tasks done, and suddenly they can do them with a 10th the number of people.
可能在某些地方,公司只需要完成一组特定的固定任务,突然间他们可以用十分之一的人员来完成这些任务。
This, by the way, could…
顺便说一句,这可以……
is tragic and difficult in the moment for the individual being laid off.
对于被解雇的个人来说,此刻是悲惨和困难的。
It’s also amazing for the economy at large.
这对整个经济来说也是惊人的。
Suddenly you’ve freed up these resources who can now go do more productive things.
突然间,你释放了这些资源,他们现在可以去做更有成效的事情。
This is how the whole economy evolves and improves, and how we get growth, and growth is good.
这就是整个经济发展和改善的方式,也是我们实现增长的方式,而且增长是好的。
I think this is the other thing to make a strong defense for, that growth in general is a good thing.
我认为这是另一件需要强有力辩护的事情,总体而言,增长是一件好事。
1:14:54 We do not want to wind the clock back to 1920 or 1950.
我们不想让时光倒回 1920 年或 1950 年。
We should be excited about the fact that we’ve discovered new technology that allows us to do vastly more.
我们应该感到兴奋的是,我们发现了新技术,可以让我们做更多的事情。
And while some of the tasks that may be taken over by AI were tasks that humans were excited to do, and they’re just no longer economically viable, a lot of the tasks were just drudgery.
虽然人工智能可能接管的一些任务是人类很乐意做的任务,而且它们在经济上不再可行,但很多任务只是苦差事。
This is certainly true of my programming.
我的编程确实如此。
There were moments of programming I thought were amazing.
我认为有些编程时刻是令人惊奇的。
These were the moments that produced that state of flow we talked about last time, and they were ecstatic.
这些时刻产生了我们上次谈到的心流状态,他们欣喜若狂。
How often did they happen out of the course of a year?
它们在一年中发生的频率是多少?
If you took your average programmer, how much time out of 2,000 hours at the job did that person spend in a flow state?
如果以普通程序员为例,他在 2,000 个小时的工作时间中,有多少时间处于心流状态?
1:15:47 100?
100?
200?
200?
25?
25?
I think all those answers could be plausible for someone.
我认为所有这些答案对于某些人来说都是合理的。
And taking that drudgery, handing it over to machines, that is the history of civilization.
把那些苦差事交给机器,这就是文明的历史。
Yeah, I mean, the hours spent debugging.
是的,我的意思是,调试所花费的时间。
1:16:03 So programming has so many painful, painful hours in it.
所以编程有很多痛苦的时刻。
And now they’re gone.
现在他们走了。
For the…
对于…
I mean, for the most part, it’s just fun.
我的意思是,在大多数情况下,这很有趣。
A lot of it is gone in a lot of domains, and the rest of it may be gone very soon.
其中很多在很多领域都消失了,其余的可能很快就会消失。
1:16:16 So that’s where some of the romanticism also comes in- …
所以这就是一些浪漫主义的来源——……
because pain in the moment is difficult.
因为此刻的痛苦是很难的。
It’s hard.
这很难。
It’s annoying.
这很烦人。
Pain in the rearview mirror is accomplishment, proud, learning, steps forward, all the things, right?
后视镜中的痛苦是成就、自豪、学习、前进,所有的事情,对吗?
So we encompass all of this as part of the human experience, that we hate pain in the moment, but we cherish it when it’s five minutes past and we don’t remember the hardship.
因此,我们将所有这些视为人类经历的一部分,我们讨厌当下的痛苦,但当五分钟过去并且我们不记得困难时,我们会珍惜它。
We just remember the progress.
我们只记得进步。
So certainly at the societal level, at the macroeconomic level, growth is exciting.
因此,在社会层面、宏观经济层面,增长无疑是令人兴奋的。
1:16:51 But at the individual level, there’s going to be a lot of anxiety, potentially a lot of suffering.
但在个人层面上,将会有很多焦虑,可能会有很多痛苦。
So by way of advice, if you’re like a young DHH or young developer programmer now, what would you, what would you advise they do?
因此,作为建议,如果你现在就像一个年轻的 DHH 或年轻的开发程序员,你会怎么做,你会建议他们做什么?
Don’t try to anticipate anything.
不要试图预测任何事情。
1:17:11 You will literally go crazy.
你真的会发疯的。
Because even the smartest brains in the business cannot anticipate what two model hops from here is going to look like.
因为即使是业内最聪明的大脑也无法预测从这里开始的两个模型跳跃会是什么样子。
It’s an absolute waste of time, and you will develop an AI psychosis trying to deduce what two years from now is gonna look like.
这绝对是浪费时间,你会患上人工智能精神病,试图推断两年后会是什么样子。
Focus on right now, and right now is the most incredible time to be into computers.
专注于现在,现在是进入计算机领域最不可思议的时刻。
You can make them do the most amazing things if you lean in.
如果你努力的话,你可以让他们做出最令人惊奇的事情。
If you maybe for a hot moment force yourself to learn where the state of the art is, I double dog dare you not to get excited about what’s possible.
如果你可能在某个热门时刻强迫自己了解最先进的技术在哪里,我敢打赌你不要对可能性感到兴奋。
And would you recommend building publicly?
您会建议公开建设吗?
I think it’s optional actually to build publicly.
我认为公开构建实际上是可选的。
1:17:59 I think it’s, it’s nice to do because then you get to be part of a community, and there’s some camaraderie in open source.
我认为这样做很好,因为这样你就可以成为社区的一部分,并且在开源中会有一些友情。
Not some camaraderie.
不是什么友情。
There’s an enormous amount of camaraderie.
这里有大量的友情。
Open source is an incredible source of community and camaraderie, and it’s also a great way to stem some of that personal existential dread.
开源是社区和友情的不可思议的来源,也是消除个人生存恐惧的好方法。
If you’re amongst other humans, you can get infected with good forms of mind viruses, exciting forms of mind viruses, the ones that tell you that it’s all gonna be okay, and the future looks bright, and if we build a bunch of things together, we can do things none of us ever dreamed we could do.
如果你和其他人在一起,你可能会感染良好形式的精神病毒,令人兴奋的精神病毒,这些病毒会告诉你一切都会好起来的,未来看起来很光明,如果我们一起建造一堆东西,我们就可以做我们从未梦想过的事情。
1:18:43 I was just talking to Ryan Hughes, who’s been my main partner on Omarchy almost since day one, and we were literally talking about yesterday how when we started on this journey together, our ambitions were very modest.
我刚刚与 Ryan Hughes 交谈,他几乎从第一天起就一直是我在 Omarchy 的主要合作伙伴,昨天我们确实在谈论当我们一起开始这段旅程时,我们的野心非常有限。
We’re just like, “Can we get this distro to not crash at 3:00 AM because of an Arch package that just got pushed out outside of our control?
我们会想,“我们能否让这个发行版在凌晨 3:00 不会因为 Arch 软件包被推出到我们的控制范围之外而崩溃?
That would be amazing.
那真是太棒了。
Then it’d be great.” Now we’re leaning back and thinking, “How can we take over the world?
那就太好了。”现在我们向后靠并思考:“我们怎样才能接管世界?
How can we make Omarchy go to Mars?
我们怎样才能让奥马奇去火星?
How can we do everything we’ve ever dreamed of?” And that level of ambition inflation is partly because things have gotten better with agents, but hugely also because we’ve surrounded ourselves with others excited about the same journey.
我们怎样才能实现我们梦想的一切呢?”这种雄心壮志的部分原因是代理商的情况有所改善,但很大程度上也是因为我们周围都是对同一旅程感到兴奋的人。
1:19:33 And if you’re just sitting in your little isolated cave worrying about the future, yeah, you’re gonna go a little nuts.
如果你只是坐在孤立的小洞穴里担心未来,是的,你会有点发疯的。
I think if we learned anything during COVID, it’s that people will go nuts sitting in their little cave inside by themselves worrying about what’s gonna happen.
我认为,如果说我们在新冠疫情期间学到了什么的话,那就是人们会独自坐在自己的小洞穴里,担心会发生什么。
That is indistinguishable from depression, ruminating endlessly about things you can’t control.
这与抑郁症没有什么区别,无休止地思考你无法控制的事情。
I’m sorry to channel some Jensen Huang here, but that’s just loser talk.
我很抱歉在这里引用黄仁勋的观点,但这只是失败者的言论。
You don’t have to be a loser.
你不必成为失败者。
You can choose to lean in and- …
你可以选择向前倾,然后——……
win.
赢了。
And win is very broadly defined as learning more, making more, contributing more, being part of more.
胜利的定义非常广泛,包括学习更多、创造更多、贡献更多、参与更多。
And at the end of the day, what are your choices?
归根结底,您的选择是什么?
You don’t have a choice, mate.
你别无选择,伙计。
1:20:29 The future’s coming whether you like it or not, so you might as well choose to be excited about it.
无论你喜欢与否,未来都会到来,所以你不妨选择对此感到兴奋。
But I mean, we should emphasize the fact that planning is nearly impossible with AI.
但我的意思是,我们应该强调这样一个事实:人工智能几乎不可能进行规划。
1:20:34 I mean, most of us plan our life a little bit.
我的意思是,我们大多数人都会稍微规划一下自己的生活。
When we’re younger, you have, like, hopes and dreams.
当我们年轻的时候,你有希望和梦想。
There’s a reason you go to college.
你上大学是有原因的。
There’s a plan underlying that.
这是有一个计划的基础。
I agree with that.
我同意这一点。
But there-
但那里——
I’ll concede that.
我承认这一点。
…
……
1:20:49 it is kinda-
有点-
This is different.
这是不同的。
…
……
1:20:51 nuts that it’s impossible to really plan.
疯狂的是不可能真正计划。
Because, like, you really don’t know if there will even be a Claude Code, a Codex, and Cursor six months from now.
因为,就像,你真的不知道六个月后是否会有克劳德代码、法典和光标。
Maybe it’ll be you’ll be talking to WhatsApp.
也许您会通过 WhatsApp 进行交谈。
Maybe it’ll be all open call type.
也许这将是所有公开招募类型。
Maybe it’ll just all be voice.
也许一切都只是声音。
Maybe Omarchy will take over the world and it’ll be voice.
也许奥马奇会接管世界,而这将是声音。
Maybe there won’t be operating systems anymore.
也许不再有操作系统了。
You’ll just…
你只会……
There’ll be this glowing orb that just you just talk to because if natural language is enough to accomplish all tasks in life, like, what is life about?
会有一个发光的球体,你只需与之交谈,因为如果自然语言足以完成生活中的所有任务,比如,生活是什么?
Like, what are the major tasks you need to accomplish in life?
例如,您生活中需要完成的主要任务是什么?
If you can just do that with voice, and it writes all the programs for you, and all is systematized, and what are the jobs needed then?
如果你用语音就可以做到这一点,它给你写所有的程序,而且都系统化了,那还需要什么工作呢?
Maybe it’s more about the service industry.
也许更多的是服务业。
1:21:38 Maybe there won’t be programmers, like agentic engineers at all.
也许根本不会有像代理工程师这样的程序员。
And so yes, your advice is wise to focus on the moment, but that doesn’t mean that it’s just a crazy rollercoaster ride, ’cause we don’t know what this December or what this January will look like.
所以,是的,你的建议是明智的,专注于当下,但这并不意味着这只是一次疯狂的过山车,因为我们不知道今年 12 月或今年 1 月会是什么样子。
We don’t know, and therefore, we should choose to have faith that it’s gonna pan out.
我们不知道,因此,我们应该选择相信它会成功。
1:21:55 That is my best advice towards fighting anxiety, is that you have a choice, to a large degree, of how to lean.
这是我对抗焦虑的最佳建议,那就是你在很大程度上可以选择如何倾斜。
Do you wanna lean into PDoom?
您想了解 PDoom 吗?
PDoom is gonna happen whether you lean into it or not.
无论你是否愿意,PDoom 都会发生。
You don’t have control.
你没有控制权。
But there’s also actual daily schedule of how much learning are you doing, how much building are you doing, how much diversification you’re doing.
但也有实际的每日日程安排,包括你正在学习多少、你正在做什么、你正在做什么多样化。
1:22:22 And for example, I traveled across rural China recently, and I did it quite deliberately because you’re talking to people in China, in rural anywhere, where time moves much slower, where there’s no discussions about agentic engineering.
例如,我最近穿越了中国农村,我是故意这样做的,因为你正在与中国各地农村的人们交谈,那里的时间过得慢得多,那里没有关于代理工程的讨论。
And the ti- and I started by going on the Great Wall of China.
我和我首先登上了中国的长城。
That’s timeless.
那是永恒的。
That spans centuries.
那跨越了几个世纪。
And, you know, there was, like, this kind of tension of FOMO, like maybe I’m missing out on something.
而且,你知道,有一种 FOMO 的紧张感,就像我可能错过了一些东西。
1:23:02 But then I very deliberately wanted to find the timelessness of human existence, really plug into the fact that, okay, it always feels like everything’s changing throughout human history, but, you know, the universals are still true of what matters in life.
但后来我非常刻意地想要找到人类存在的永恒性,真正融入这样一个事实:好吧,在整个人类历史中,总是感觉一切都在变化,但是,你知道,对于生活中重要的事情来说,普遍性仍然是正确的。
And I just wanted to make sure to keep connected to that.
我只是想确保与此保持联系。
You’re not gonna miss anything.
你不会错过任何东西。
1:23:22 This is the part that actually grinded my gears in the early phases of this transition.
这是在这个转变的早期阶段真正磨砺我的部分。
Everyone was so up in arms that if you didn’t…
每个人都如此激动,如果你不……
It’s loops now.
现在是循环。
Oh, no, no, we’re done with loops.
哦,不,不,我们已经完成了循环。
It’s graphs now.
现在是图表了。
Oh, no, no, we’re done with that.
哦,不,不,我们已经完成了。
It’s harnesses this, right?
它利用了这个,对吧?
They’re constantly churning through the frontier, which in one way is actually very exciting.
他们不断地探索前沿,这在某种程度上实际上是非常令人兴奋的。
This is what happens when a new field opens up.
这就是当新领域打开时会发生的情况。
It’s like a new portal, and it’s all spilling out.
它就像一个新的门户,一切都溢出来了。
That’s exciting.
这太令人兴奋了。
But it also means that if I had just been backpacking for the last year, hadn’t touched a computer, hadn’t witnessed this agentic moment, and I just showed up yesterday, do you know what?
但这也意味着,如果我去年刚刚背包旅行,没有碰过电脑,没有目睹这个激动人心的时刻,而我昨天才出现,你知道吗?
I would’ve been caught up in two weeks.
两周后我就会被赶上。
1:24:08 There’s not any accumulation, which is in some ways a great relief.
没有任何积累,这在某种程度上是一种很大的解脱。
If you missed the past year, you can catch up to the frontier in two weeks.
如果去年错过了,两周后就能赶上边境。
If you’re a programmer who was out hiking the Himalayas for a year and you come back, you can catch up in two weeks.
如果你是一名程序员,在喜马拉雅山徒步旅行了一年,然后回来,你可以在两周内赶上。
And this is actually the great credit to the progress we’re experiencing.
这实际上是我们所取得的进步的巨大功劳。
We have so many experiments running simultaneously right now that are constantly and ruthlessly sorting what works, what doesn’t work.
我们现在同时进行如此多的实验,不断地、无情地对哪些有效、哪些无效进行分类。
You don’t have to remember or even be part of that entire journey.
您不必记住甚至不必参与整个旅程。
You can just show up for the results.
您只需出现即可查看结果。
But the key step there, when you come back from the backpacking journey, is to be willing to become a totally new, different human because things are changing so fast.
但当你从背包旅行回来时,关键的一步是愿意成为一个全新的、不同的人,因为事情变化得太快了。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
I mean, literally, if you left for the backpacking journey- …
我的意思是,从字面上看,如果你去背包旅行——……
1:24:56 in October last year and came back in April or May-
去年十月,四五月回来-
You might as well have been in the cryo chamber for 100 years.
你可能已经在冷冻室里待了 100 年了。
…
……
1:25:06 it’s like, “What, what do you mean?
就像,“什么,你什么意思?
We’re not programming anymore?” This, it’s a very…
我们不再编程了吗?”这,这是一个非常……
it’s a huge transformation.
这是一个巨大的转变。
It’s startling, and I actually…
这很令人震惊,而且我实际上……
1:25:12 I mean, I’m putting some of this on slightly for effect.
我的意思是,为了达到效果,我稍微添加了一些内容。
I also recognize that it’s okay to grief for a hot moment.
我也认识到,在炎热的时刻感到悲伤是可以的。
That’s not my disposition.
那不是我的性格。
It’s not how I do it, but I accept that that’s a time-tested mechanism for coping with a sense of loss.
这不是我的做法,但我承认这是一种经过时间考验的应对失落感的机制。
And it’s okay to have a sense of loss that the world that you knew and maybe you were very fond of is no longer the same.
当你所熟悉的、也许你非常喜欢的世界不再是原来的样子时,有一种失落感是可以接受的。
I maybe should say out loud and explicitly that I do have that, the Native American with a tear rolling down my…
我也许应该大声而明确地说,我确实有这样的经历,这位美洲原住民泪流满面……
1:25:43 Like, there’s a sadness.
比如,有一种悲伤。
It’s a goodbye.
这是一次再见。
It’s a goodbye to the old world of programming.
这是对旧编程世界的告别。
That’s…
那是……
1:25:55 it’s so fascinating to me.
这对我来说太迷人了。
I’ve spent so many years-
我花了这么多年——
But it all amounted to this moment.
但这一切都发生在这一刻。
1:25:58 That is, to me, what makes the entire journey so meaningful.
对我来说,这就是整个旅程如此有意义的原因。
AI did not arrive from the sky.
人工智能并非从天而降。
It was not alien technology that had blasted through the universe and suddenly showed up on our shores.
并不是外星技术冲破了宇宙并突然出现在我们的海岸上。
AI has been around for as long as computer science has been around.
只要计算机科学存在,人工智能就已经存在了。
In the ’50s, they thought the problem was gonna be cracked in about a decade, the smartest people at the time.
在 50 年代,他们认为这个问题将在大约十年内得到解决,他们是当时最聪明的人。
It took a little longer, but the reason it took a little longer was in part because we took some blind turns on the road to AI and neural networks and thought that there were other symbolic representations that were gonna carry the day, and they didn’t.
它花了一点时间,但它花了一点时间的部分原因是我们在人工智能和神经网络的道路上盲目转弯,并认为还有其他符号表示会取得胜利,但他们没有。
And that probably set us back about 15 years.
这可能让我们倒退了大约 15 年。
So some of it was also we had to go through the gaming revolution, 3D games.
因此,我们还必须经历游戏革命,即 3D 游戏。
1:26:47 If we had not had Quake, if we had not had Duke Nukem, if we had not had Unreal Tournament, we’d never have gotten AI because we would never have gotten the GPUs, and therefore we would never have been able to get AI in the shape it is now.
如果我们没有《雷神之锤》,如果我们没有《毁灭公爵》,如果我们没有《虚幻竞技场》,我们永远不会获得人工智能,因为我们永远不会获得 GPU,因此我们永远无法获得现在的人工智能。
So everything we did up until this moment was required to get there.
因此,我们到目前为止所做的一切都是为了实现这一目标。
You were part of that.
你是其中的一部分。
Holy…
圣…
What a blessing.
多么幸运啊。
What a blessing to have contributed in your small part, either by training or by playing video games.
无论是通过训练还是通过玩电子游戏,能够尽自己的一份微薄之力,这是多么幸运的事啊。
Literally, you could just choose to think of it that way.
从字面上看,你可以选择这样想。
All those times you spent in, for my case, in the ’90s just playing video games, they were-
就我而言,在 90 年代,你花在玩电子游戏上的所有时间,都是——
You were contributing.
你正在做出贡献。
Yeah, I was contributing to the AI revolution right there and then moment.
是的,我当时就在为人工智能革命做出贡献。
To the progress of human civilization.
为了人类文明的进步。
1:27:27 No, for sure.
不,当然。
Civilization progresses with the death of the old and the birth of the new, and it continues in this way, but it’s still the grieving process is a part of it, I think.
文明随着旧事物的死亡和新事物的诞生而进步,并以这种方式继续下去,但我认为悲伤的过程仍然是其中的一部分。
Take a moment.
花点时间。
1:27:39 It’s okay.
没关系。
Take a…
采取…
And also, you don’t even have to accept that it’s all dead.
而且,你甚至不必接受一切都已死的事实。
Like, if you are still very attached to the hand chiseling, which if you’d asked me a year ago, I would have predicted that I would’ve been more attached.
就像,如果你仍然非常执着于手工凿刻,如果你在一年前问我,我会预测我会更执着。
I’m surprised-
我很惊讶——
I’m kinda surprised…
我有点惊讶……
…
……
1:27:59 a little that I’ve not been more attached.
一点点我并没有更加依恋。
But the reason I’ve not been more attached, I think, is that I found something more fun.
但我想,我之所以没有更加依恋,是因为我发现了一些更有趣的事情。
And if it hadn’t been like that, if AI had just replaced the thing I loved and gave me something I hated, I’d probably be a little bitter.
如果不是这样,如果人工智能取代了我所爱的东西,给了我一些我讨厌的东西,我可能会有点痛苦。
I mean, this really feels…
我的意思是,这真的感觉……
1:28:16 It’s– it’s hilarious and awesome to watch and inspiring to watch.
这是——观看起来很搞笑、很棒,而且很鼓舞人心。
It’s like Picasso all of a sudden f– like, getting access to image generation and getting super excited and switching in a matter of months.
就像毕加索突然变得疯狂一样,可以访问图像生成并变得超级兴奋并在几个月内切换。
That’s literally what happened.
这就是实际发生的事情。
So, like, it’s an artist that appreciated beautiful code, and all of a sudden you’re talking about having fun-
所以,就像,这是一位欣赏美丽代码的艺术家,突然之间你就开始谈论乐趣了——
I think Picasso is actually a good parallel because if you look at his early work where he learned his craft, it was painting realistic paintings, right?
我认为毕加索实际上是一个很好的类比,因为如果你看看他早期的作品,他学习了他的手艺,那就是画写实画,对吧?
1:28:37 Like, he was training to be a master of the old ways of depicting reality the best way we knew how, and then along comes all these other forms of expression.
就像,他正在训练成为以我们知道的最好方式描绘现实的旧方式的大师,然后所有这些其他表达形式都随之而来。
Cubism comes along.
立体主义随之而来。
1:29:01 And all these o– forms of abstract expression, he’s not decrying that he’s not doing Renaissance paintings anymore, that he’s not just painting the perfect depiction of an apple.
对于所有这些抽象表达形式,他并没有谴责自己不再画文艺复兴时期的绘画,也没有谴责他画的不仅仅是苹果的完美描绘。
He’s reimagining the apple to be a freaking square, and he’s getting excited about that.
他正在将苹果重新想象成一个奇怪的正方形,他对此感到很兴奋。
And I feel that transition, that we’ve gone from this one mode of expression, and we’ve suddenly opened the gates where the, like, the color spectrum is so much wider.
我感觉到这种转变,我们已经摆脱了这种单一的表达模式,我们突然打开了大门,在那里,色谱变得更加宽广。
I’m seeing more.
我看到了更多。
And it’s perhaps because the way I became a c– programmer.
也许是因为我成为一名 C 程序员的方式。
I did not become a programmer because of a deep love of if statements.
我并不是因为深爱 if 语句而成为一名程序员。
I became a programmer because I wanted programs.
我成为一名程序员是因为我想要程序。
I wanted things to exist that did not exist.
我想要那些不存在的东西存在。
And at first, I had to learn how to program to make that happen.
首先,我必须学习如何编程来实现这一点。
1:29:56 Then I happened to fall in love with programming as a craft, and then I spent two decades really diving deep on that.
然后我碰巧爱上了编程作为一门手艺,然后我花了二十年的时间真正深入研究它。
But now I’m back.
但现在我回来了。
I’m back to having an idea and being impatient beyond belief to see it exist in the world, and AI has just shrunk that down to almost nothing.
我又回到了有了一个想法,并且非常不耐烦地想看到它存在于世界上,而人工智能刚刚将它缩小到几乎为零。
So it’s an acceleration of a rediscovery.
所以这是重新发现的加速。
Now, I understand that that’s not true for everyone.
现在,我明白这并不适合每个人。
There are plenty of programmers who just loved programming right from the beginning, and they were attracted to the logical constructs and so forth.
有很多程序员从一开始就喜欢编程,他们被逻辑结构等所吸引。
I mean, I’ve been there for two decades, so I get it.
我的意思是,我已经在那里呆了二十年了,所以我明白了。
But I also think that you’re able to discover new sides of yourself-
但我也认为你能够发现自己新的一面——
1:30:41 …
……
if you let it in.
如果你让它进来。
Again, I keep coming back to this almost regret minimization framework, to borrow Jeff Bezos’s terms here.
我再次回到这个近乎后悔最小化的框架,借用杰夫·贝佐斯的术语。
Are you gonna look at yourself two years from now and think, “Oh, I spent my time well being pissy about the present, about the fact that my industry changed”?
你是否会在两年后审视自己并想:“哦,我花了很多时间对现在、对我的行业发生变化的事实感到愤怒”?
Or would I two years from now look back upon this moment and be proud of myself for leaning in, for maybe having a moment of grief?
或者两年后当我回顾这一刻时,我会为自己的努力而感到自豪,因为也许有过一段悲伤的时刻吗?
Again, there’s room for all of it.
再说一次,所有这些都有空间。
And then going, “I’m gonna learn how the world spins now, and I’m gonna make not just the best of it, I’m gonna make more of it.”
然后说,“我要了解世界现在是如何旋转的,我不仅要充分利用它,还要充分利用它。”
I mean, it is true, a lot of programmers, a lot of friends of mine, me, obviously you, are having fun.
我的意思是,这是真的,很多程序员,我的很多朋友,我,当然还有你,都玩得很开心。
I have had more fun with computers in the last three months than at any time previously.
在过去的三个月里,我从电脑中获得的乐趣比以往任何时候都多。
Quick bathroom break, and then I gotta ask you about how you actually interact with the systems now.
快速上厕所,然后我要问你现在如何与系统实际交互。
Yes.
是的。
I gotta ask you about how has your setup programming setup changed?
我想问一下您的设置编程设置有何变化?
1:31:46 So, keyboard, voice, what’s the IDE?
那么,键盘、语音,IDE 是什么?
It’s crazy to think about now, but yeah, I used TextMate for almost 20 years.
现在想来都觉得很疯狂,但是,是的,我使用 TextMate 已经快 20 年了。
1:31:57 I used TextMate starting in 2005, I think.
我想我是从 2005 年开始使用 TextMate 的。
I helped get the first version out, and then I just wasn’t interested.
我帮助发布了第一个版本,然后我就不再感兴趣了。
I wasn’t in the market for an alternative.
我并没有在市场上寻找替代方案。
And it wasn’t until the switch to Linux that I was forced out of my habitat.
直到转向 Linux,我才被迫离开我的栖息地。
And now with the switch to, what are we calling it?
现在切换到,我们称之为什么?
Agentic engineering?
代理工程?
Oh, I fucking hate that term.
哦,我他妈的讨厌这个词。
We gotta come up with something that sounds as plain as programming, but encapsulates the fact that it’s with agents.
我们必须想出一些听起来像编程一样简单的东西,但封装了它与代理相关的事实。
But-
但是——
I still think it should be called programming at this point.
我仍然认为此时应该称为编程。
…
……
1:32:36 All right, let’s just call it programming.
好吧,我们就称之为编程吧。
Programming with agents requires a different tool set.
使用代理进行编程需要不同的工具集。
It really does.
确实如此。
And the main change here is that you’re going from single thread programming in your head to parallel processing.
这里的主要变化是,您将从头脑中的单线程编程转变为并行处理。
When I was writing code, chiseling it by hand in TextMate or even Neovim not that long ago, I would just focus on one problem at the time, and I would methodically work my way through it, and that was actually the portal to flow.
不久前,当我在 TextMate 甚至 Neovim 中手动编写代码时,我只会专注于当时的一个问题,然后有条不紊地解决它,这实际上是流动的门户。
The portal to flow was deep immersion into a single problem, see it through to the end.
心流的入口是深度沉浸在单一问题中,并坚持到底。
1:33:15 That’s not how it works with agents, in part because the agents are at once both too fast and too slow.
这并不是代理的工作方式,部分原因是代理既太快又太慢。
They don’t give you an immediate reply on something that you asked them to do that’s the same as typing on a keyboard.
他们不会立即回复您要求他们做的事情,就像在键盘上打字一样。
So you have to let the agent cook- …
所以你必须让特工做饭——……
for a bit, and therefore you realize, well, if I just sit around waiting for them, first of all, that doesn’t feel productive.
有一段时间,因此你意识到,好吧,如果我只是坐着等他们,首先,这感觉没有成效。
Even if the agent, just one of them, can be highly productive, it does not feel productive.
即使代理(只是其中之一)可以非常高效,但感觉并不高效。
It does not feel good.
感觉不太好。
It feels actually like you’re a little bit useless.
其实感觉你有点没用。
1:33:50 And maybe I had a moment when the first agentic moment was there and we, I was running mostly one agent at a time where I felt like, “I don’t know about this.” But you can solve a lot of hard problems by simply throwing more resources at it.
也许我有过这样的时刻,第一个代理时刻就在那里,我们,我当时主要运行一个代理,当时我感觉,“我不知道这件事。”但是,您只需投入更多资源就可以解决许多难题。
This is the whole scaling law of AI itself, right?
这就是人工智能本身的整个缩放定律,对吗?
That if you parallelize these things and you’re not running one agent, but you’re running a handful, you can feel like you’re in a flow state because you’re constantly doing programming work in the sense that you’re making decisions, and you’re helping either unblock an agent because it has a question about which direction to take, or you’re ready for a new task.
如果你并行化这些事情,并且你没有运行一个代理,而是运行了几个代理,那么你会感觉自己处于一种心流状态,因为你不断地进行编程工作,从某种意义上说,你正在做出决策,并且你正在帮助解锁一个代理,因为它对采取哪个方向有疑问,或者你已经准备好执行一项新任务。
And to do that, you need a different setup.
为此,您需要不同的设置。
1:34:35 I started first doing it in tmux and just having separate panes and having separate splits.
我首先开始在 tmux 中进行操作,并且只有单独的窗格和单独的分割。
Basically a terminal with tabs is a good way to think about it.
基本上,带有选项卡的终端是一个很好的思考方式。
You open a bunch of tabs.
您打开了一堆标签。
I think most humans know exactly how that works.
我想大多数人都知道它是如何运作的。
They don’t work in just one tab.
它们不仅仅在一个选项卡中工作。
So still sticking to the terminal, CLI.
所以仍然坚持使用终端 CLI。
Absolutely.
绝对地。
So you’re not using Claude Code app or the-
所以你没有使用 Claude Code 应用程序或-
No.
不。
…
……
1:34:56 Codex app or the-
Codex 应用程序或 -
I love the fact that this agent revolution was kicked off in the terminal because I was already a huge fan of TUI’s, terminal user interfaces, and the terminal in general.
我喜欢这个代理革命是在终端中开始的,因为我已经是 TUI、终端用户界面和整个终端的忠实粉丝。
1:34:57 That feels like a really nice place to be.
感觉那是一个非常好的地方。
It’s a beautiful place to be.
这是一个美丽的地方。
The modern terminal is just a good-looking place to work.
现代航站楼只是一个美观的工作场所。
So I like that.
所以我喜欢这样。
And then this fact of having multiple agents, especially once it’s not just multiple agents running on your own machine, but you start running multiple machines.
然后是拥有多个代理的事实,尤其是当多个代理不仅在您自己的计算机上运行,而且您开始运行多台计算机时。
Now tmux alone is not enough to keep track of it, and that’s why as of late I’ve switched to this thing called Herdr.
现在仅靠 tmux 还不足以跟踪它,这就是为什么最近我改用了这个叫做 Herdr 的东西。
1:35:40 And Herdr is essentially tmux plus agent notifications.
Herdr 本质上是 tmux 加上代理通知。
So whenever your agent is done and needs something for you, it goes ding, a little bell telling you it’s ready for its human…
因此,每当您的代理完成工作并需要为您提供某些东西时,它就会发出叮叮声,一个小铃声告诉您它已经为它的人类做好了准备……
Is it master or servant?
是主人还是仆人?
I’m not quite sure always.
我总是不太确定。
But it is ready for a decision, and it also keeps track of whether it is working mode or not.
但它已经准备好做出决定,并且它还跟踪它是否处于工作模式。
So I have this Herdr set up.
所以我设置了这个 Herdr。
I have multiple Herdr setups actually running on individual machines.
我有多个 Herdr 设置实际上在单独的机器上运行。
I went on this crazy phase just about a month ago realizing that doing this work on a single machine is not fast enough.
大约一个月前,我进入了这个疯狂的阶段,意识到在一台机器上完成这项工作还不够快。
It’s like I’ve discovered multi-core programming, but I only have two cores.
这就像我发现了多核编程,但我只有两个核心。
I’m like, “What if I had 16 cores?
我想,“如果我有 16 个核心怎么办?
What if I had 32 cores?
如果我有 32 个核心怎么办?
What if I had 64 cores?” So I instantly went out and I bought these amazing KVMs called GL.iNet Comets.
如果我有 64 个核心怎么办?”所以我立即出去购买了这些令人惊叹的 KVM,称为 GL.iNet Comet。
1:36:35 And what they do is it’s this little box.
他们所做的就是这个小盒子。
You plug in HDMI, you plug in USB and connect it to the computer.
您插入 HDMI,插入 USB 并将其连接到计算机。
It’s like a KVM.
它就像一个 KVM。
So a KVM is a remote way of controlling a computer, but what’s special about this is just how easy it was.
因此,KVM 是一种远程控制计算机的方式,但其特别之处在于它非常简单。
You connect this thing in, you go to a webpage, log in once, set one password.
你连接这个东西,你进入一个网页,登录一次,设置一个密码。
Now this thing can hop on your tailnet.
现在这个东西可以跳到你的尾网上了。
This has been the other revolution of the last year for me, is discovering these WireGuard networks.
对我来说,这是去年的另一场革命,就是发现这些 WireGuard 网络。
Tailscale is essentially turning all the computers you have into a local network wherever you are.
Tailscale 本质上是将您拥有的所有计算机转变为本地网络,无论您身在何处。
Like right now on my phone, I have direct access to all the computers in my Malibu office.
就像现在在我的手机上一样,我可以直接访问马里布办公室的所有计算机。
I also have access to all my computers in my Copenhagen office.
我还可以访问哥本哈根办公室的所有计算机。
1:37:26 And I can treat them as though I sat right next to them without having to punch holes in a firewall or set up complicated VPNs.
我可以像坐在他们旁边一样对待他们,而无需在防火墙上打孔或设置复杂的 VPN。
And what this does is it just decreases the friction it takes to get new compute online.
这样做的作用只是减少了在线获取新计算所需的摩擦。
So as soon as I discovered this, I looked at my closet, and I realized I had a bunch of mini PCs from prior experiments, and I just said, “What if I just connected all of them?”
所以当我发现这一点时,我看了看我的衣柜,我意识到我有一堆之前实验中的迷你电脑,我只是说,“如果我把它们全部连接起来怎么办?”
Oh, wow.
哦,哇。
And I just connected four of the computers-
我刚刚连接了四台计算机-
Nice.
不错。
…
……
1:37:53 in a closet.
在壁橱里。
They all had their little Comet, and suddenly I could run agents on more computers at the same time, and I could control them all with Herdr.
他们都有自己的小彗星,突然间我可以同时在更多计算机上运行代理,并且我可以使用 Herdr 控制它们。
And it did get to a point where I maxed out my own processing power.
我确实达到了最大化自己处理能力的地步。
Right.
正确的。
That I think at about…
我想的是……
1:38:09 What do we want to put it?
我们想放什么?
About four to five machines running, I don’t know, three agents.
我不知道大约有四到五台机器在运行,三个代理。
I have about 16 threads.
我有大约 16 个线程。
That’s what I can run.
这就是我能跑的。
And the faster the agents run, of course, the fewer threads I can run, but at the current pace, I can run about 16 threads- …
当然,代理运行得越快,我可以运行的线程就越少,但按照目前的速度,我可以运行大约 16 个线程——……
at full acceleration.
全加速时。
And that’s part of why I’ve gone from just being excited about the agent moment to being delirious.
这就是为什么我从对代理时刻感到兴奋变成了精神错乱的部分原因。
Because I think as you say, some of it is a little assaulting.
因为我认为正如你所说,其中有些内容有点攻击性。
Again, we’re on—we’re on a dial-up bandwidth-wise with our computer.
再说一遍,我们的计算机正在使用拨号带宽。
I mean, it’s actually hilarious.
我的意思是,这实际上很搞笑。
So you think of I’m sitting here a year ago, right?
所以你认为我一年前坐在这里,对吗?
I’m chiseling my code.
我正在修改我的代码。
I’m writing my lines.
我正在写我的台词。
1:38:55 And over the course of, like, an hour, I will have written one beautiful controller, one beautiful model.
在大约一个小时的过程中,我将编写一个漂亮的控制器,一个漂亮的模型。
Like, that’s one file.
就像,这是一个文件。
And I’ve really worked on it, right?
我真的很努力,对吧?
So maybe there’s 60 lines left.
所以也许还剩下 60 行。
So maybe my bandwidth at this moment is, like, 30 lines an hour.
所以也许我现在的带宽是每小时 30 行。
I think that’s even high.
我认为这甚至很高。
Maybe it’s 20 lines an hour.
也许每小时 20 行。
Now I’m running 16 threads.
现在我正在运行 16 个线程。
I’m producing at some times hundreds of lines an hour or hundreds of lines of code per hour.
有时我每小时生成数百行或数百行代码。
Now, let me pause myself there for a hot moment.
现在,让我在这里暂停一下。
I hate that metric, right?
我讨厌这个指标,对吧?
1:39:28 Like, lines of code is a stupid metric in general to measure these things, and I think it’s right from some in the programming community to ridicule the AI psychosis when everyone talks about the number of lines of code they’re writing, and then you ask them, “What did you build?” And then they’re like, “Well, I…” And then no good answer comes out, right?
就像,代码行数通常是衡量这些事情的愚蠢指标,我认为当每个人都在谈论他们正在编写的代码行数,然后你问他们“你构建了什么?”时,编程社区中的一些人嘲笑人工智能精神病是正确的。然后他们会说,“好吧,我……”然后就没有好的答案了,对吧?
It’s just a nice shorthand to-
这只是一个很好的简写——
It is a nice shorthand.
这是一个很好的速记。
1:39:49 It is a representation or encapsulation of how much output that’s coming out.
它是对输出量的表示或封装。
Now, whether the output is good or bad-
现在,无论输出是好还是坏——
1:39:57 …
……
is not a referendum on that.
不是对此进行全民公投。
But I was producing and producing so much more now, right?
但我现在生产的东西越来越多,对吧?
And therefore I’m able to keep all these threads going.
因此我能够让所有这些线索继续下去。
So that’s the setup.
这就是设置。
It’s still Neovim, but at this point, I’m not writing a lot of code, so I’m using Neovim as a project browser and then as a way to kick off lazygit to see the change log for what’s there.
它仍然是 Neovim,但在这一点上,我没有编写很多代码,所以我使用 Neovim 作为项目浏览器,然后作为启动懒惰的方式来查看其中的更改日志。
And even that, I’d say if GitHub was a little faster at showing you your pull request, the web is probably actually a nicer place to do that.
即便如此,我想说,如果 GitHub 在向您展示拉取请求时能更快一点,那么网络实际上可能是一个更好的地方。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
There’s also this other tool I’ve been playing with a bit called Hunk, which just produces diffs in a really nice way.
还有我一直在使用的另一个工具,叫做 Hunk,它以一种非常好的方式产生差异。
So you could look at that too.
所以你也可以看看。
1:40:37 But I find that when I look at Hunk, I only see the change set, and when I’m reviewing output from an agent, I often want to see the surrounding context.
但我发现,当我查看 Hunk 时,我只看到更改集,而当我查看代理的输出时,我经常想查看周围的上下文。
Oh, yeah, so it changed this file, but actually, what do we have in this other file that wasn’t touched but maybe should’ve been touched?
哦,是的,所以它改变了这个文件,但实际上,我们在另一个文件中有什么没有被触及但也许应该被触及的?
So that’s why I still like Neovim as a way of doing it.
这就是为什么我仍然喜欢 Neovim 作为一种实现方式。
But it’s all happening, by the way, of course, in Omarchy.
但这一切当然都发生在奥马奇。
So it’s all happening on Linux.
所以这一切都发生在 Linux 上。
And this was the other major breakthrough with agents.
这是代理商的另一个重大突破。
Agents love the Unix philosophy.
特工们热爱 Unix 哲学。
It loves individual tools that it can invoke through the command line, and there is no operating system on Earth of the majors, I’m counting three here, Mac, Windows, Linux, that works as well with that mechanism as Linux.
它喜欢可以通过命令行调用的单独工具,并且地球上没有主流操作系统,我在这里数了三个,Mac,Windows,Linux,可以像 Linux 一样使用该机制。
1:41:25 Everything in Linux is either a config file or a CLI tool.
Linux 中的所有内容要么是配置文件,要么是 CLI 工具。
Now, that was its main drawback five minutes ago.
五分钟前,这就是它的主要缺点。
This was the reason people didn’t like Linux.
这就是人们不喜欢 Linux 的原因。
It’s like it’s all config files and CLI tools.
就像所有的配置文件和 CLI 工具一样。
1:41:39 What great irony that the universe has played it upon us that now the drawbacks of Linux five minutes ago are now its major selling points.
宇宙对我们来说是多么大的讽刺啊,五分钟前的 Linux 缺点现在却成了它的主要卖点。
This was one of the things…
这是其中一件事……
I thought I was stuck for a weekend with a Mac four months ago.
四个月前,我还以为我只能用 Mac 度过一个周末。
I thought I had a computer at the place I was going that was a Linux machine, so I didn’t bring my laptop, and I found out when I arrived I only had a Mac Mini.
我以为我要去的地方有一台 Linux 机器,所以我没有带笔记本电脑,当我到达时我发现我只有一台 Mac Mini。
So I was gonna make the best of a bad situation here and set up my Mac in some of the ways I’ve been thinking about with Linux.
所以我打算充分利用这里的糟糕情况,并按照我一直在考虑的 Linux 的一些方式来设置我的 Mac。
And you can actually do a lot now.
现在你实际上可以做很多事情。
Homebrew has gotten really quite good.
Homebrew 已经变得非常好。
Homebrew is the missing package manager for the Mac, and no one has done more to move the Mac forward in terms of ease of setup.
Homebrew 是 Mac 上缺失的软件包管理器,而且没有人比 Mac 更容易设置。
1:42:31 But still something as simple as Raycast, I don’t know if you’ve used that.
不过还是Raycast这么简单,不知道你用过没有。
That’s the- There’s no config file that you can just access.
就是这样——没有您可以访问的配置文件。
You have to go into the GUI, export a file, then take that file, I don’t know, in your freaking backpack on a USB key.
你必须进入 GUI,导出一个文件,然后将该文件(我不知道)放在你那该死的背包中的 USB 密钥上。
And then you can import it somewhere else.
然后你可以将其导入到其他地方。
You cannot automate the entire setup of your machine.
您无法自动化机器的整个设置。
You can’t automate at all the configuration of Mac’s default key bindings.
您无法自动化 Mac 默认按键绑定的所有配置。
That has to be a manual process where you’re clicking with a mouse like a caveman to set up your machine.
这必须是一个手动过程,您需要像穴居人一样点击鼠标来设置您的机器。
I mean, there’s ways around it.
我的意思是,有办法解决这个问题。
Not good ones.
不是好人。
1:43:07 I looked.
我看了看。
I tried hard.
我很努力。
So here’s my—been my journey.
这就是我的旅程。
1:43:10 Obviously I’m a Linux person, but because of Adobe Premiere, Adobe products, I’m also a Windows person, so oftentimes I would use WSL, Windows Subsystem for Linux.
显然我是一个 Linux 人,但由于 Adobe Premiere、Adobe 产品,我也是一个 Windows 人,所以我经常会使用 WSL(Windows Subsystem for Linux)。
Yes.
是的。
So Linux inside Windows, which is…
所以 Windows 中的 Linux 是……
1:43:23 in the agentic era is not a good kind of Linux, ’cause it’s just-
在代理时代并不是一种好的 Linux,因为它只是——
It’s a sandbox.
这是一个沙箱。
…
……
1:43:29 it’s a sandbox, and you want the Linux to be unleashed to be able to do everything.
它是一个沙箱,您希望 Linux 能够发挥作用来完成所有任务。
Correct.
正确的。
And so I have now woken up to things like GrayCat, and have w- you know, I’m a keyboard person.
所以我现在已经意识到像 GrayCat 这样的东西了,并且知道,我是一个键盘手。
1:43:34 Where’s the config file?
配置文件在哪里?
What, can I basically do everything where an agent can, can set everything up for me and save the configuration so I can replicate it across systems and everything’s automated?
什么,我基本上可以做代理可以做的所有事情,可以为我设置一切并保存配置,以便我可以跨系统复制它并且一切都是自动化的?
And so I had to ask a lot of those questions, and a lot of them are missing.
所以我不得不问很多这样的问题,但其中很多都被遗漏了。
They don’t have good answers.
他们没有好的答案。
But oftentimes you could actually just build the app yourself.
但通常情况下,您实际上可以自己构建应用程序。
But there are hacks.
但也有一些黑客行为。
Yeah, they’re hacks.
是的,他们是黑客。
There are hacks.
有黑客。
They’re hacks.
他们是黑客。
You don’t have to live like this, Lex.
你不必这样生活,莱克斯。
1:44:03 There’s a better…
有一个更好的…
Actually, this is a great moment.
事实上,这是一个伟大的时刻。
Until you have a video editor.
直到您拥有视频编辑器。
So this is a good moment.
所以这是一个好时机。
Yep.
是的。
I heard it was your birthday.
我听说今天是你的生日。
Yeah.
是的。
So I brought a little gift.
所以我带了一份小礼物。
No.
不。
We are going to get you onto the agentic operating system whether you like it or not.
无论您是否喜欢,我们都会让您进入代理操作系统。
This is awesome.
这太棒了。
And I asked- …
我问——……
1:44:24 my friends at Dell whether maybe they had a machine that I could get you for your birthday.
我在戴尔的朋友们是否有一台机器可以送给你作为生日礼物。
Oh, no.
哦,不。
So here’s the machine I use- …
这是我使用的机器 - ...
1:44:33 which is- …
这是——……
well, the same one I use, but it’s now yours.
好吧,我用的是同一个,但现在它是你的了。
It’s a-
这是一个——
No
否
…
……
1:44:40 Dell XPS 14- …
戴尔 XPS 14-...
already set up with Omarchy 4-
已经与 Omarchy 4 设置-
Oh, wow
哦,哇
…
……
1:44:45 ready to be configured for you.
已准备好为您配置。
And once you realize that all your…
一旦你意识到你所有的……
By the way, we should almost time this.
顺便说一句,我们差不多应该计时了。
You can be up and running.
您可以启动并运行。
You have to answer, like, five questions in about one minute.
你必须在一分钟内回答五个问题。
You could literally do it live if you wanted to.
如果你愿意的话,你实际上可以现场表演。
Oh, Omarchy, beautiful, modern opinion Linux by DHH.
哦,Omarchy,DHH 的美丽、现代的 Linux 观点。
1:45:00 Yeah, let’s do it.
是的,让我们开始吧。
Yeah, fill it out while I talk.
是的,在我说话的时候填写它。
1:45:04 So-
所以——
Cool
酷
…
……
1:45:07 exactly what you realized, that pain on the Mac was the exposure I got for about a weekend, and I tried really hard, and I found some decent workarounds, the main one being that Homebrew now has tabs for GUI apps.
正如你所意识到的,Mac 上的痛苦是我在大约一个周末的曝光,我非常努力地尝试,我找到了一些不错的解决方法,主要的一个是 Homebrew 现在有 GUI 应用程序的选项卡。
Because it’s hilarious to think upon the recent past where people would go to websites, like, “I need Zoom.” They would enter zoom.com, find the download link, download a DMG- …
因为想想最近人们会访问诸如“我需要 Zoom”之类的网站,这真是太搞笑了。他们会进入 Zoom.com,找到下载链接,下载 DMG-...
double-click on that, see a weird manual interaction telling them to drag an icon from one place of the screen to the other, and that was how you installed apps.
双击它,会看到一个奇怪的手动交互,告诉他们将图标从屏幕的一个位置拖动到另一个位置,这就是安装应用程序的方式。
And you’d just do that over and over again until you had all the apps that you wanted, and if you were setting up a new machine and you had, like, 12 apps, you’d go to 12 different websites to download them like a total caveman.
你会一遍又一遍地这样做,直到拥有你想要的所有应用程序,如果你要设置一台新机器,并且你有 12 个应用程序,你会像穴居人一样去 12 个不同的网站下载它们。
1:46:01 Homebrew has solved a lot of that, but it has not solved all of it, and has solved nothing in terms of the-
Homebrew 已经解决了很多问题,但还没有解决所有问题,并且在以下方面没有解决任何问题:
Sorry to interrupt, but look how fast this is going.
抱歉打扰,但看看这进展有多快。
Oh, it’s gonna be done in about 40 seconds.
哦,大约40秒内就可以完成。
1:46:11 And then you’re gonna be inside of Omarchy.
然后您就会进入 Omarchy 内部。
Super is the Windows or Command key on your keyboard.
Super 是键盘上的 Windows 或 Command 键。
1:46:17 So which one is the Super key?
那么超级钥匙是哪一把呢?
Yep, that’s the Windows key.
是的,那是 Windows 键。
1:46:21 Oh, actually, no, no, you have a special edition.
哦,实际上,不,不,你有一个特别版。
Yeah.
是的。
There are only about six of these computers in the world.
世界上大约只有六台这样的计算机。
Oh, there’s a Super key.
哦,有一个超级键。
It says Super, and look at where the Copilot key is on the other end of the keyboard.
它显示“超级”,然后查看副驾驶键在键盘另一端的位置。
1:46:29 That’s the Omarchy logo.
这是 Omarchy 的标志。
Nice.
好的。
1:46:35 Okay, cool.
好吧,酷。
This was Spencer Bull at Dell, who I’ve been working with on a lot of this stuff.
这是戴尔的斯宾塞·布尔 (Spencer Bull),我一直在与他合作做很多这样的事情。
1:46:36 They’ve been incredible.
他们太不可思议了。
They, for a moment, let go of the XPS brand.
他们暂时放弃了 XPS 品牌。
Yes, they did, last year.
是的,去年他们做到了。
And I was like, “This is dumb.
我当时想,“这太愚蠢了。
1:46:48 This is…
这是……
XPS is awesome.”
XPS 太棒了。”
It was not just dumb that it got rid of the XPS branding.
它取消 XPS 品牌不仅仅是愚蠢。
1:46:51 They also got rid of the Escape key and put in capacitive touch buttons at the top.
他们还取消了 Escape 键,并在顶部放置了电容式触摸按钮。
The mistake that Apple realized like three years ago was terrible, and everyone hated them for them.
苹果三年前意识到的错误是可怕的,每个人都因此而讨厌他们。
But now they have an incredible team, and this was actually my first Dell laptop for myself.
但现在他们拥有一支令人难以置信的团队,这实际上是我自己的第一台戴尔笔记本电脑。
1:47:12 Because I’ve been using Dell on our servers.
因为我的服务器一直使用戴尔。
Dell was what powered our cloud exit.
戴尔为我们退出云提供了动力。
We’ve been running Dell since the mid-2000s, I think.
我想我们从 2000 年代中期就开始运营戴尔了。
But I never ran their laptops, because compared to a MacBook, they just weren’t up to the task for me.
但我从未使用过他们的笔记本电脑,因为与 MacBook 相比,它们无法胜任我的任务。
The XPS’ from 2016, or from 2026, with those Intel Panther Lake chips, are the first Dells that I would personally actually use.
2016 年或 2026 年的 XPS 配备英特尔 Panther Lake 芯片,是我个人实际使用的第一台戴尔电脑。
And it’s funny because when I got mad at Apple originally, I thought, like, “Do you know what?
这很有趣,因为当我最初对苹果生气时,我想,“你知道吗?
I should just get a Dell,” because we already used them and whatever, and I got a Dell, and I was like, “Man, I can’t do it.
我应该买一台戴尔,”因为我们已经使用过它们等等,我买了一台戴尔,我当时想,“伙计,我做不到。
I can’t do it.
我做不到。
It’s not good enough.” And then lo and behold, this year they just fixed everything.
这还不够好。”然后你瞧,今年他们刚刚解决了所有问题。
They fixed the battery life.
他们修复了电池寿命。
They fixed the performance.
他们修复了性能。
1:47:59 They fixed the compatibility.
他们修复了兼容性。
They fixed the weight.
他们固定了重量。
They fixed the screen.
他们修好了屏幕。
That’s a tandem OLED screen-
那是串联 OLED 屏幕 -
Yeah, that’s incredible.
是的,这太不可思议了。
…
……
1:48:05 which means it’s actually better tech than what you’ll get in a freaking MacBook.
这意味着它实际上比你在一台该死的 MacBook 上得到的技术更好。
It’s lighter than a MacBook, and the chip is finally competitive because Intel spent a good five years developing the 18A process node.
它比 MacBook 更轻,而且该芯片终于具有竞争力,因为英特尔花了五年时间开发 18A 工艺节点。
It took a long time, but now it’s here, and it’s freaking incredible.
花了很长时间,但现在它来了,这真是令人难以置信。
We finally have competition to Apple M chips- …
我们终于可以与 Apple M 芯片竞争了——……
that can go as long as on battery and can have competitive performance.
它可以与电池一样长时间运行,并且具有具有竞争力的性能。
And there’s a beautiful default theme to this thing, and then what is it?
这个东西有一个漂亮的默认主题,那么它是什么?
1:48:34 Super Space opens up.
超级空间开启。
Actually, you can just push the Omarchy key.
实际上,您只需按 Omarchy 键即可。
1:48:39 It opens up the menu.
它打开菜单。
So now you control everything from there.
所以现在你可以从那里控制一切。
Oh, same thing as the Super.
哦,和超级一样。
1:48:44 Okay.
好的。
Cool.
凉爽的。
Same thing as Super Space.
和超级空间一样。
1:48:45 So this has been a huge change for me, that we finally have Linux machines that you don’t have to make excuses for.
所以这对我来说是一个巨大的改变,我们终于拥有了你不必为之找借口的 Linux 机器。
Because I don’t mind making excuses because excuses are really just another word for trade-offs.
因为我不介意找借口,因为借口实际上只是权衡的另一种说法。
I love that Framework 13 I think I talked about last time.
我喜欢我上次谈到的 Framework 13。
I still like them.
我还是喜欢他们。
They still make good computers.
他们仍然制造出很好的计算机。
But I think for a lot of people, they didn’t want a DIY experience.
但我认为对于很多人来说,他们并不想要 DIY 体验。
They wanted something that just out of the box felt like it was on par in build quality and whatever with Macs, and now we finally have it.
他们想要一些开箱即用的东西,感觉它在构建质量等方面与 Mac 不相上下,现在我们终于拥有了它。
So happy birthday.
生日快乐。
Thank you so much.
太感谢了。
1:49:27 An Omarchy Dell laptop from DHH is the best birthday present.
DHH 的 Omarchy Dell 笔记本电脑是最好的生日礼物。
This is awesome.
这太棒了。
Check the screensaver, by the way.
顺便检查一下屏幕保护程序。
Yeah, it’s kind of amazing.
是的,这有点神奇。
1:49:36 I’m seeing it.
我看到了。
On that tandem OLED screen-
在那串联的 OLED 屏幕上——
It’s gorgeous.
太漂亮了。
…
……
1:49:41 it is absolutely mind-bogglingly awesome.
这绝对是令人难以置信的棒。
Look at that.
看看那个。
1:49:46 There’s like a retro look to the whole thing.
整个事情有一种复古的感觉。
It’s like Fiverr pop-
就像 Fiverr 流行音乐一样
It’s like running a bulletin board system in- …
这就像在……中运行一个公告板系统。
1:49:51 the ’90s, which is exactly what I did when I was 14 years old.
90年代,这正是我14岁时所做的。
So for me, it’s a complete throwback and an awesome aesthetic, combining this sense of modern rising culture in Unix with- …
所以对我来说,这是一种完全的复古和一种令人敬畏的美学,将 Unix 中现代新兴文化的感觉与……结合起来。
this throwback of the ’90s.
这是90年代的复古风。
Yeah, like a retro look for an agent first OS.
是的,就像代理优先操作系统的复古外观。
1:50:10 It’s crazy.
太疯狂了。
Which again, pairs…
再说一次,配对……
1:50:13 This was why I was so excited that- …
这就是为什么我如此兴奋——……
all these agent harnesses arrived as TUI’s, arrived as CLIs- …
所有这些代理安全带都以 TUI 的形式到达,以 CLI 的形式到达——……
has arrived as a terminal because suddenly, a whole new generation of both programmers and regular users discovered the glory of the terminal.
终端的出现是因为突然间,全新一代的程序员和普通用户发现了终端的荣耀。
The terminal was actually one of the most impressive and productive user interfaces we can have.
该终端实际上是我们拥有的最令人印象深刻和最高效的用户界面之一。
Now, we’ve built user interfaces since then that were easier to learn.
现在,我们从那时起就构建了更容易学习的用户界面。
The mouse is a wonderful invention for letting someone who doesn’t know a lot about computers just click around and find things out, but the terminal is for people who want to learn their systems, who wanna learn the keyboard commands.
鼠标是一项很棒的发明,可以让那些对计算机不太了解的人只需点击鼠标就能找到答案,但终端是为那些想要学习他们的系统、想要学习键盘命令的人准备的。
So you think the TUI is gonna stick around?
那么您认为 TUI 会继续存在吗?
100%.
100%。
1:51:00 Now, it’s not gonna be the only thing.
现在,这不会是唯一的事情。
Of course it’s not, because these labs now have trillion dollar valuations, so they need to be able to reach billions of people.
当然不是,因为这些实验室现在估值高达数万亿美元,因此它们需要能够接触到数十亿人。
And I don’t think we’re gonna teach billions of people the intricacies of the TUI.
我认为我们不会向数十亿人传授途易的复杂性。
So we’re gonna have other tools, and we already have other tools, which is, by the way, one of the sweet things about Linux, the ChatGPT Codex tool.
所以我们将会有其他工具,而且我们已经有了其他工具,顺便说一下,这是 Linux 的一个优点,ChatGPT Codex 工具。
Yeah, I saw that.
是的,我看到了。
Literally within two hours of that announcement dropping, I had it wrapped up and ready to go in Omachi.
公告发布后不到两个小时,我就将其包装好并准备前往大町。
1:51:23 Already now, if you go to…
现在,如果你去……
You can actually hit the Omachi key- …
你实际上可以按 Omachi 键 - ...
and then just write ChatGPT.
然后只写ChatGPT。
It should pop up as, like, install.
它应该像安装一样弹出。
Nice.
好的。
And then just hit return.
然后只需按回车键即可。
Sudo password for Lex.
Lex 的 Sudo 密码。
Yeah, whatever you put in.
是的,随便你放进去。
1:51:42 And then it’s just gonna install it, and it’s gonna pop it up, and you have ChatGPT.
然后它会安装它,它会弹出它,你就有了 ChatGPT。
Nice.
好的。
And that’s how a lot of the apps are, and all the agentic harnesses are built in that way.
这就是很多应用程序的样子,所有代理工具都是以这种方式构建的。
1:51:48 Tailscale, as I talked about, if you wanna hop on that, is that way.
Tailscale,正如我所说,如果你想跳上去,就是那样。
Dropbox.
Dropbox。
And the reason all these things are in there is because I use them.
所有这些东西都在那里的原因是因为我使用它们。
It’s because I built this system for me, and I thought, first and foremost, how do I build my dream computer just for me?
这是因为我为自己构建了这个系统,并且我想,首先也是最重要的是,如何为我构建我梦想的计算机?
And if I get my dream computer, I am assured there are other people who are gonna have the same dreams as I do.
如果我得到了我梦想的电脑,我确信其他人也会有和我一样的梦想。
Now, you’re obsessed about getting the installation to be under one minute, and a bunch of people asked you online why.
现在,您痴迷于让安装时间在一分钟以内,并且很多人在网上问您原因。
1:52:13 So why?
那么为什么呢?
Why were you so obsessed to getting the installation to be less than 60 seconds?
为什么您如此着迷于让安装时间少于 60 秒?
First, let me quote Michel Hashimoto, who created Ghostty terminal that’s awesome and also available on Omachi and was also the founder of HashiCorp, who had this great post on X not too long ago that had the killer line, “The pursuit of excellence deserves no explanation.” Wanting to make something as good and as fast and as beautiful as possible has no need for justification.
首先,让我引用 Michel Hashimoto 的话,他创建了非常棒的 Ghostty 终端,并且在 Omachi 上也可以使用,他也是 HashiCorp 的创始人,他不久前在 X 上发表了一篇很棒的帖子,其中有一句杀手锏:“追求卓越无需解释。”想要把东西做得尽可能好、尽可能快、尽可能漂亮,不需要任何理由。
1:52:58 We should want beautiful, fast systems that are a delight to use.
我们应该想要美观、快速、使用起来令人愉悦的系统。
Now, the funny thing with the install time is it didn’t actually start with a one-minute mission.
现在,安装时间的有趣之处在于它实际上并不是从一分钟的任务开始的。
I was being modest when it got going.
事情发生时我很谦虚。
I thought if I could set up my entire system in 15 minutes, it would already be such a dramatic improvement over what came before it that I would be perfectly happy.
我想如果我能在 15 分钟内设置好整个系统,那么与之前相比已经是一个巨大的进步,我会非常高兴。
And it came off the fact that the benchmarking had been skewed so out of whack.
事实上,基准测试已经如此不正常。
You talked about the Commodore 64 being your first computer, right?
您谈到 Commodore 64 是您的第一台计算机,对吗?
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
When you unwrap that Commodore 64 and you hit the on button, in I think about less than one second, the basic interpreter was ready to accept your command.
当您打开 Commodore 64 的包装并按下启动按钮时,我认为不到一秒钟,基本解释器就准备好接受您的命令。
1:53:28 It was literally almost instant.
这几乎是瞬间的。
There was virtually no boot time.
几乎没有启动时间。
Do you know how long it took me to set up a new Mac that I had bought for actually the one app that I still haven’t vibe coded my way into on Linux, which is Adobe Lightroom?
你知道我花了多长时间才设置了一台新 Mac,我买的这台 Mac 实际上是为了一个我还没有在 Linux 上进行 vibe 编码的应用程序,那就是 Adobe Lightroom?
1:53:53 Brand-new computer, out of the box.
全新电脑,开箱即用。
I set it up.
我设置了。
There’s a software update.
有软件更新。
Before I was ready to install Adobe Lightroom that I had it fully up to date, it took 42 minutes.
在我准备好安装 Adobe Lightroom(我已经完全更新)之前,花了 42 分钟。
That’s grotesque.
这太奇怪了。
That’s absurd.
这太荒谬了。
That’s an insult to everyone who likes computers, that you get a new computer and before you can use it, you have to spend 42 minutes doing updates…
这对每个喜欢电脑的人来说都是一种侮辱,你买了一台新电脑,在使用它之前,你必须花 42 分钟进行更新……
on something that was already installed on it out of the box from the factory.
是在工厂开箱即用的情况下安装的。
That is just preposterous, and it’s crazy that that’s not even the worst thing.
这太荒谬了,而且疯狂的是,这还不是最糟糕的事情。
I also got a PC because all these Linux machines, they come as PCs, right?
我还拥有一台 PC,因为所有这些 Linux 机器都是 PC,对吧?
Right.
正确的。
And they have Windows pre-installed.
他们预装了Windows。
1:54:35 So I got one.
所以我得到了一个。
This was just three weeks ago.
这只是三周前的事。
Brand-new machine, Intel Panther Lake, the whole shebang.
全新机器,Intel Panther Lake,全舍帮。
An hour and 35 minutes from unwrapping the thing until it’s ready to use.
从打开包装到可以使用需要 1 小时 35 分钟。
How long did you take before you think you were in Omarchy?
您花了多长时间才认为自己来到了奥马奇?
I mean, it’s less than a minute for sure.
我的意思是,这肯定不到一分钟。
A minute.
一分钟。
Yeah.
是的。
We can build computers like this.
我们可以建造这样的计算机。
1:54:57 We have the technology.
我们有技术。
We’ve had the technology since like 1981 when the Commodore 64 first came out.
自 1981 年 Commodore 64 首次问世以来,我们就拥有了这项技术。
The fact that we now have a computer that’s a trillion times faster and you have to spend 42 minutes or an hour and a half setting it up before it’s ready to use is so infuriating to me that it became a passion.
事实上,我们现在拥有一台速度快一万亿倍的计算机,而你必须花 42 分钟或一个半小时来设置它才能准备使用,这让我非常恼火,以至于它变成了一种激情。
And it’s funny, just while we were having a little break here, I was talking to Ryan Hughes, my co-conspirator here.
有趣的是,就在我们在这里休息的时候,我正在和我的同谋瑞安·休斯(Ryan Hughes)交谈。
We now have, we think, a line where we can create these special turbo images that are pre-made for specific computers because it relies on some knowledge of the hardware, like the Dell XPS.
我们认为,我们现在拥有一条生产线,可以创建这些为特定计算机预先制作的特殊涡轮图像,因为它依赖于对硬件(如戴尔 XPS)的一些了解。
We’re gonna make a Dell XPS turbo image that can install in about 12 seconds.
我们将制作一个可在大约 12 秒内安装的 Dell XPS Turbo 映像。
A full Linux system-
一个完整的Linux系统——
Yeah
是啊
…
……
1:55:43 installed in about 12 seconds.
大约 12 秒内安装完毕。
That’s incredible.
那真是难以置信。
That obsession is what gives me this great satisfaction with using computers, that we do not accept things the way they are.
这种痴迷让我对使用计算机感到非常满意,因为我们不接受事物本来的样子。
1:55:45 And this is why this agent-accelerated reality that I now inhabit is so invigorating.
这就是为什么我现在所处的这种代理加速的现实如此令人振奋。
Because I can look at these kinds of constraints and go, do you know what?
因为我可以看到这些限制然后就走,你知道吗?
I could have stopped when we were at five minutes.
当我们进行到五分钟时我本可以停下来。
That would already have been fast enough.
那已经足够快了。
This was the argument on X, right?
这就是关于 X 的争论,对吗?
Why do you keep going?
你为什么还要继续走下去?
Five minutes is fast enough.
五分钟已经够快了。
Okay, maybe for you, but for me, 12 seconds is a lot more fun.
好吧,也许对你来说,但对我来说,12 秒更有趣。
And I always think, try to think these first principles.
我总是想,尝试思考这些首要原则。
Okay, in that machine, actually hit the Omarchy key again, and then do speed.
好吧,在那台机器上,实际上再次按下 Omarchy 键,然后进行速度。
You’ll see a list come up, and one of them is, like, disk speed.
您会看到出现一个列表,其中之一是磁盘速度。
Speed test, network speed, disk speed.
速度测试,网络速度,磁盘速度。
Disk speed.
磁盘速度。
1:56:37 Do that one, and then run it.
执行该操作,然后运行它。
So this is testing the performance of the built-in NVMe drive, and what are you getting?
这是测试内置 NVMe 驱动器的性能,您得到了什么?
Seven GB a second.
每秒 7 GB。
So seven gigabytes a second.
所以每秒七吉字节。
1:56:47 That’s how fast that drive is.
这就是驱动器的速度。
Why can we not install a Linux distribution in one second?
为什么我们不能在一秒钟内安装一个Linux发行版?
The Omarchy distribution is 5.8 gigabytes.
Omarchy 发行版大小为 5.8 GB。
If we can run at seven gig…
如果我们能运行七场演出……
Now, of course, you can’t actually do that because the USB key is a lot slower than that, but you should be able to maximize the underlying physics and protocols that we’re dealing with, and that’s your goal.
当然,现在您实际上无法做到这一点,因为 USB 密钥比这慢得多,但您应该能够最大化我们正在处理的底层物理和协议,这就是您的目标。
We gotta get all the way back down to that.
我们必须回到这一点。
Yeah.
是的。
1:57:15 I love that you’re doing a Linux distribution.
我喜欢你们正在制作 Linux 发行版。
‘Cause I mean, you could be do…
因为我的意思是,你可以做……
You could be building anything.
你可以建造任何东西。
But the fact that you’re building a Linux distribution means you’re rethinking about what a computer is, ’cause a operating system is the fundamental, like, the foundation of how-
但事实上,你正在构建一个 Linux 发行版,这意味着你正在重新思考计算机是什么,因为操作系统是基础,就像是如何运行的基础——
Yes
是的
…
……
1:57:32 you interact with a computer.
您与计算机交互。
Yes.
是的。
1:57:33 And it’s been so stale.
而且它已经如此陈旧了。
Yeah, it has.
是的,有。
The macOS we have today is scarcely different from the macOS we had 10 years ago.
我们今天的 macOS 与 10 年前的 macOS 几乎没有什么不同。
1:57:35 In fact, it’s worse in many ways because Apple continues to chokehold the control on users.
事实上,在很多方面情况都更糟,因为苹果继续扼杀对用户的控制。
They don’t want them to install software that they haven’t already said good- …
他们不希望他们安装他们还没有说好的软件——……
to go for.
去争取。
They don’t want users to reconfigure their hotkeys without doing it manually.
他们不希望用户在不手动操作的情况下重新配置热键。
They didn’t want to change the 500-millisecond animation switching workspaces.
他们不想改变 500 毫秒的动画切换工作空间。
It is an infuriatingly locked-down computer.
这是一台令人恼火的锁定计算机。
Now, to Apple’s credit, it’s a pretty good computer for being locked down, but I don’t want a locked-down computer.
现在,值得苹果称赞的是,它是一台非常适合锁定的计算机,但我不想要一台锁定的计算机。
I wanna own my computer.
我想拥有我的电脑。
Better yet, I wanna mutate my computer, and this is where the agentic age needs a new operating system.
更好的是,我想改变我的电脑,这就是代理时代需要新操作系统的地方。
1:58:24 When you can vibe code whatever app comes to your mind, you should be able to vibe code your operating system.
当您可以对您想到的任何应用程序进行振动编码时,您应该能够对您的操作系统进行振动编码。
You should be able to change anything, how it looks, how it works, what panels are there, what are not there, and that requires Linux.
你应该能够改变任何东西,它的外观、工作原理、有哪些面板、没有什么面板,而这需要 Linux。
As simple as that.
就这么简单。
There are no…
没有…
None of the other two operating systems can deliver this.
其他两个操作系统都无法提供这一点。
But can you speak to the, I think somebody asked you, like, “Who the hell are you to think you could do better than Ubuntu?” For example.
但我想有人问过你,你能说一下,“你到底是谁,认为你可以做得比 Ubuntu 更好?”例如。
1:58:41 Or like, “Why are you doing it when Ubuntu is already pretty good?” And your answer was, “I thought I could do better.” So can you speak to, this was on X, can you speak to, like, where the craziness comes from, thinking that you as one person or maybe with Ryan, you could start building something that’s going to be better than Ubuntu or Arch or any of this?
或者说,“既然 Ubuntu 已经很不错了,你为什么还要这么做呢?”你的回答是:“我认为我可以做得更好。”那么你能说一下,这是在 X 上,你能说一下,疯狂是从哪里来的,认为你作为一个人或者也许和 Ryan 一起,你可以开始构建一些比 Ubuntu 或 Arch 或任何其他更好的东西?
Well, I’ll say that it didn’t start quite as grandiose.
好吧,我会说它一开始并没有那么宏伟。
1:59:12 When I got going with my Linux journey, I actually just started with Ubuntu, and I just built on top of it.
当我开始我的 Linux 之旅时,我实际上刚刚开始使用 Ubuntu,并且我只是在它的基础上进行构建。
Here’s a system that already does a lot of the things I wanted to do, and at least it’s Linux.
这个系统已经做了很多我想做的事情,至少它是 Linux。
So can I just build on top of it and make it more modern, make it actually look good, and have the programs I wanna use?
那么我可以在它的基础上进行构建并使其更加现代,使其实际上看起来不错,并拥有我想要使用的程序吗?
I got, like, some version of that, and then I discovered that there’s seven layers deeper you could go, and as, the closer you get to the metal, the closer you get to the kernel, the closer you get to the individual packages and so forth, the more freedom you discover.
我得到了类似的版本,然后我发现你可以深入七层,而且,你越接近金属,越接近内核,越接近单个包等等,你发现的自由就越大。
1:59:47 So as I discovered more and more freedom, I got more and more ambitious, and I realized, oh, surprise, surprise, I have strong opinions about how computers should work, how they should look, what programs should be installed, and whether they should take 42 minutes to install or 45 seconds.
因此,当我发现越来越多的自由时,我变得越来越雄心勃勃,我意识到,哦,惊讶,惊讶,我对计算机应该如何工作、它们应该如何外观、应该安装什么程序以及安装它们是否应该花费 42 分钟或 45 秒有强烈的看法。
That’s the current world record, by the way.
顺便说一句,这是当前的世界纪录。
So if anyone installs Omarchy Quattro after this and can beat 45 seconds, take a screenshot, send it to me, and you’ll be the new holder of the world record.
因此,如果有人在这之后安装了 Omarchy Quattro,并且能够跑过 45 秒,请截图并发送给我,那么您将成为新的世界纪录保持者。
When—how long ago did you cross the 60-second mark?
您何时——多久前超过了 60 秒大关?
It’s funny because it’s like that the old limit on, what was it?
这很有趣,因为这就像旧的限制,它是什么?
2:00:19 It was a four-minute mile or something- …
这是四分钟一英里之类的——……
like that in 1952- …
就像1952年那样——……
that people thought was impossible for humans to beat.
人们认为人类不可能打败它。
Then one guy beats it, and literally within the next few months, three more guys do, right?
然后一个人打败了它,实际上在接下来的几个月内,另外三个人打败了它,对吗?
So we had this goal.
所以我们有这个目标。
I originally had the goal, it was two minutes.
我原本的目标是两分钟。
2:00:40 And then we beat two minutes, and I’m like, “Well, if we beat two minutes, why can’t we beat one minute?” And I remember thinking like, “That’d be crazy.
然后我们打败了两分钟,我想,“好吧,如果我们打败了两分钟,为什么我们不能打败一分钟呢?”我记得当时的想法是:“那太疯狂了。
You can’t install a modern operating system in one minute when they’re all…” If the other ones are taking 42 minutes, right?
你不可能在一分钟内安装一个现代操作系统,因为它们都是……”如果其他操作系统需要 42 分钟,对吗?
Like Apple, full of a lot of smart people, like, it took 42 minutes, so that’s gotta be the bar.
就像苹果公司一样,充满了很多聪明人,比如,花了 42 分钟,所以这就是酒吧。
No, no, it’s not the bar because there’s no speed limit.
不,不,这不是酒吧,因为没有速度限制。
Like, none of the things you take for granted are fixed pillars of reality in almost any case.
就像,几乎在任何情况下,你认为理所当然的事情都不是现实的固定支柱。
Until you get down to the seven gigabytes per second that drive is able to transfer, you’ve not reached the limit yet, so you should just keep pushing.
在驱动器能够传输的数据达到每秒 7 GB 之前,您还没有达到极限,因此您应该继续努力。
And of course, then it becomes a game in itself and a satisfaction itself.
当然,然后它本身就变成了一个游戏和一种满足感。
2:01:22 Every second I could shave off was an excitement.
我能刮掉的每一秒都是一种兴奋。
And when we broke the one-minute barrier, which was really only broken, I think, three weeks ago or something like that, maybe even two weeks ago, I just got crazy.
当我们打破一分钟的障碍时,我想,这实际上只是在三周前或类似的时间,甚至两周前被打破,我简直疯了。
And then I got a swarm of agents to run all these auto research loops of trying all these different theories on like, oh, if you change this thing, if you change that thing, what if you cut this out?
然后我让一群代理来运行所有这些汽车研究循环,尝试所有这些不同的理论,就像,哦,如果你改变这个东西,如果你改变那个东西,如果你把它删掉怎么办?
What if you do things in parallel?
如果你并行做事情怎么办?
What if while you were typing in your username, we start preloading packages into memory system, we can fire them in faster.
如果当您输入用户名时,我们开始将软件包预加载到内存系统中,我们可以更快地启动它们,该怎么办?
And it becomes a fun game.
这变成了一个有趣的游戏。
And I think that’s how you should think about product development.
我认为这就是你应该如何思考产品开发。
It should be fun.
这应该很有趣。
You should, it should be frivolous.
你应该,应该是轻率的。
2:01:57 It should be trying to overshoot the target and making it so much better than what it, quote unquote, needs to be.
它应该努力超越目标,并使其比实际需要的更好。
Especially now because you can move so quickly and you can try so many different approaches because of the agents.
尤其是现在,因为有了代理,您可以快速行动,并且可以尝试许多不同的方法。
Yes, that just makes it more satisfying.
是的,这只会让人更满足。
2:02:09 But I think this was always true.
但我认为这始终是正确的。
If you look at the greatest Mercedes-Benz of all time, I think it was called the W126.
如果你看看有史以来最伟大的梅赛德斯-奔驰,我认为它被称为 W126。
I saw this wonderful documentary on it.
我看过这部精彩的纪录片。
It was steered by this guy who for years had worked in Mercedes’ department for safety.
驾驶它的是这个多年来一直在梅赛德斯安全部门工作的人。
And suddenly he gets put in charge for the whole S-Class project, and he just puts in all of it.
突然间,他被任命负责整个 S 级项目,并且他将全部投入其中。
This is where you got the auto-retending seat belts and washers on the headlights and everything.
在这里你可以找到自动伸缩安全带、车头灯垫圈以及所有东西。
This car was so overbuilt for the market.
这辆车对于市场来说是过度建造的。
2:02:42 It was unbelievable.
这太令人难以置信了。
But you look at that and go like, “Well, I want that.” In just the same way that you look at a mechanical watch and go, “It could go down to 100 meters?” Or, or I think Rolex has one that can go down to 4,000 meters, the, the deep ocean, the deep diver ocean- …
但你看着它,然后说:“好吧,我想要那个。”就像你看着机械表时会问:“它能走深至 100 米吗?”或者,或者我认为劳力士有一款可以下潜到4000米,深海,深海潜水员的海洋——……
or whatever it’s called.
或无论它叫什么。
No one outside of three people in the world, whoever buy that watch, will ever put it to the test.
世界上除了三个人之外,没有人会去测试那块手表。
But don’t you wanna be the kind of person who is a patron of people who wanna push the human race that much forward?
但你难道不想成为那种想要推动人类进步的人们的赞助人吗?
I want the fastest car breaking the speed limits.
我想要最快的汽车突破速度限制。
I want the diver watch that can go down the Mariana Trench.
我想要一块可以潜入马里亚纳海沟的潜水表。
I want the operating system that can install in less than 60 seconds.
我想要一个可以在 60 秒内安装的操作系统。
So from the individual level, I admire those people.
所以从个人层面来说,我很佩服那些人。
2:03:26 I think everybody should strive for that.
我认为每个人都应该为此努力。
But also the consequences of that we should mention, like the pursuit of excellence, even when the metrics seem to be frivolous, the maybe unexpected consequences of that is other kinds of excellences, discoveries, innovations, and all that kind of stuff that has nothing to do with the speed.
但我们也应该提到其后果,比如追求卓越,即使指标看起来很无聊,其可能意想不到的后果是其他类型的卓越、发现、创新,以及所有与速度无关的东西。
100%.
100%。
It’s discovery.
这是发现。
2:03:49 It’s nice to have the metric that you’re chasing be the catalyst, the engine that drives innovation, because you’ll just discover.
很高兴将您所追求的指标作为催化剂,推动创新的引擎,因为您很快就会发现。
It’s the same reason you go to the moon, you go to Mars.
这和你去月球、去火星的原因是一样的。
It’s like, why?
就像,为什么?
Who cares?
谁在乎?
Well, actually, the real thing is you’ll discover a lot about chemical propulsion.
嗯,实际上,真正的事情是你会发现很多关于化学推进的知识。
You’ll discover a lot about how humans can live for a long time in space.
您会发现很多关于人类如何在太空中长期生存的知识。
Maybe you’ll discover whole new ways of doing solar energy in space or data centers in space or whatever the hell.
也许你会发现在太空中使用太阳能或在太空中使用数据中心或其他什么的全新方法。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
All kinds of…
各种…
2:04:22 Maybe you’ll meet-
也许你会遇见——
That’s right.
没错。
…
……
2:04:23 aliens, but you never know.
外星人,但你永远不知道。
But setting a goal and chasing it, especially when it’s numerical, is really nice.
但设定一个目标并追逐它,尤其是当它是数字的时候,真的很好。
And setting a grand goal is even better.
设定一个宏伟的目标就更好了。
2:04:32 When you refuse to just do what’s practical and you strive for what’s slightly beyond plausible, that’s when the magic happens.
当你拒绝只做实用的事情,而努力追求稍微超出合理范围的事情时,魔法就会发生。
And we should be going all in on that.
我们应该全力以赴。
This is one of the reasons…
这是原因之一……
And in fact, to some degree, this specific goal was motivated by seeing others do this.
事实上,在某种程度上,这个特定目标是因为看到其他人这样做而激发的。
I mean, Elon is the singular individual in this conversation.
我的意思是,埃隆是这次谈话中唯一的一个人。
The guy is so out there in his goals.
这家伙的目标是如此远大。
They seem so preposterous at first glance.
乍一看,它们似乎很荒谬。
I’ve certainly considered them preposterous on many glances.
从很多角度来看,我确实认为它们是荒谬的。
And then you realize that they come true sometimes.
然后你意识到它们有时会实现。
Maybe not always on schedule, and so what?
也许并不总是按计划进行,那又怎样?
So what?
所以呢?
So we didn’t get the self-driving car on schedule.
所以我们没有如期得到自动驾驶汽车。
I gave Elon a lot of shit for that back in ’17.
早在 17 年,我就因为这件事对 Elon 骂了很多遍。
2:05:29 But now it’s here, and who would have gotten us here except for the person who thought it was possible in ’17, who is so impatient with reality that the sheer force is just gonna propel that reality to the place he wants it to be.
但现在它就在这里,除了那个在 17 年认为这是可能的人之外,谁会把我们带到这里,他对现实如此不耐烦,以至于纯粹的力量只会将现实推向他想要的地方。
I think that’s deeply inspiring, and we need these kinds of goalposts to be moved.
我认为这非常鼓舞人心,我们需要移动这些球门柱。
We need someone to run the four-minute mile, so the rest of us realize, “Well, okay, but I guess I can run it quicker.” That’s what I try to strive for, and I really strive for with Omarchy because it’s just more fun to live that way, to have high aspirations and ambitions.
我们需要有人跑完四分钟一英里,所以我们其他人意识到,“好吧,但我想我可以跑得更快。”这就是我努力争取的目标,我真的和奥马奇一起努力,因为这样的生活更有趣,有远大的抱负和抱负。
And I will say I’ve actually changed my mind on that a little bit.
我会说我实际上已经改变了一点想法。
I spent quite a lot of time speaking the other book that there are a lot of people who don’t actually need those ambitions.
我花了很多时间在另一本书上说,有很多人实际上并不需要这些雄心壮志。
2:06:22 And I also– That’s also true.
我也——这也是真的。
We don’t want 8 billion Elons running around the world.
我们不希望 80 亿埃隆在世界各地奔跑。
Would be rather crazy, I think.
我想这会相当疯狂。
But I’ve come to realize that for entrepreneurs, it’s healthy to have suitable chunky goals.
但我逐渐意识到,对于企业家来说,拥有合适的宏大目标是健康的。
The idea of just running the Italian restaurant can’t just be that.
仅仅经营一家意大利餐厅的想法不仅仅是这样。
It should be maybe I just run the one Italian restaurant, but I make the best damn pizza possible.
也许我只是经营一家意大利餐厅,但我做的披萨可能是最好的。
I make the most delicious Parmesan.
我做的帕尔马干酪最美味。
We have to strive for excellence to muster the motivation to keep going.
我们必须追求卓越,才能激发继续前进的动力。
And yeah, to dare to think big like you could build a Linux-
是的,敢于大胆思考,比如构建一个 Linux——
Yes.
是的。
…
…
2:07:05 distribution.
分配。
Is there some stuff you remember about what it took to get us to be so fast?
您是否记得一些关于我们如何做到如此快的事情?
You mentioned a few things that were, the agents were discovering.
你提到了特工们正在发现的一些事情。
One of the things was to treat the lag of human input as an opportunity to preload.
其中之一是将人类输入的滞后视为预加载的机会。
2:07:15 So there’s five questions you answer when you set up an Omarchy machine.
因此,当您设置 Omarchy 机器时,您需要回答五个问题。
So it’s doing stuff in the background.
所以它在后台做一些事情。
We’re doing stuff in the background.
我们正在后台做一些事情。
And that was one of the things I didn’t even consider, which is, I mean, the oldest trick in the book.
这是我什至没有考虑到的事情之一,我的意思是,这是书中最古老的技巧。
All sorts of video games for a long time have done this, where you let the player interact with something, and then you do preloading and so forth in the background.
很长一段时间以来,各种视频游戏都这样做,让玩家与某些东西进行交互,然后在后台进行预加载等等。
So it’s an age-old technique, but I just hadn’t thought about it for an installer.
所以这是一种古老的技术,但我只是没有为安装人员考虑过它。
2:07:45 I thought, first you ask the user some questions about their password and their username and their time zone and so forth, and then you do the work, when, in fact, you could preload that.
我想,首先你向用户询问一些有关他们的密码、用户名和时区等的问题,然后你就开始工作,事实上,你可以预加载它。
Now, the other things were just a bunch of other tweaks to how the installer itself was doing things in a certain order.
现在,其他的事情只是对安装程序本身如何按特定顺序执行操作的一系列其他调整。
Some of them was also just shrinking it.
他们中的一些人也只是缩小了它。
The last version of Omarchy was 7.5 gigabytes, and a lot of the time we’re down to now is literally decompressing compressed package files.
Omarchy 的最后一个版本有 7.5 GB,到目前为止我们很多时候都是在解压压缩包文件。
That’s the bulk of what the- is on the ISO, and that’s the bulk of the install time.
这是 ISO 上的大部分内容,也是安装时间的大部分。
So by shrinking it down to, I think we’re at 5.85 gigabytes now, a pretty chunky reduction, it almost literally translated one-to-one, and I did some really interesting things there.
因此,通过将其缩小到,我认为我们现在达到了 5.85 GB,这是一个相当大的减少,它几乎是逐字翻译的,我在那里做了一些非常有趣的事情。
2:08:30 So Omarchy uses the JetBrains font, which is an awesome font, beautiful font, and actually a font I didn’t like at first glance, but then it was the only font I could get to look perfect in Mitchell Hashimoto’s Ghostty.
因此,Omarchy 使用了 JetBrains 字体,这是一种很棒的字体,漂亮的字体,实际上我乍一看并不喜欢这种字体,但后来它是我在 Mitchell Hashimoto 的 Ghostty 中唯一能看起来完美的字体。
Ghostty, for whatever reason, did not wanna render my beloved Bitstream Vera Sans just the way I was used to it.
无论出于何种原因,Ghostty 不想按照我习惯的方式呈现我心爱的 Bitstream Vera Sans。
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
But it rendered this JetBrains font perfectly, so I switched over.
但它完美地呈现了这个 JetBrains 字体,所以我换了过来。
But it…
但它……
The standard package for JetBrains font on Arch is 200 megabytes because it includes all these variations and all these subtypes and whatever.
Arch 上 JetBrains 字体的标准包为 200 MB,因为它包含所有这些变体和所有这些子类型等等。
And I realized, like, we’re not using any of that.
我意识到,我们没有使用其中任何一个。
We’re using the monospace version in this one Nerd Font patched edition.
我们在这个 Nerd Font 修补版本中使用等宽字体版本。
Do you know how big that is?
你知道那有多大吗?
I think it’s 16 megabytes.
我认为是 16 兆字节。
Hmm.
唔。
2:09:21 So I simply just came up with a new package, the slim version- Mm-hmm …
所以我只是想出了一个新的包装,超薄版本——嗯嗯……
of the JetBrains package.
JetBrains 包的。
Nice.
好的。
And there, right there, I saved 180 megabytes.
就在那里,就在那里,我节省了 180 兆字节。
I just went through and did that a bunch of times.
我刚刚经历过并做了很多次。
We did that with the NVIDIA drivers too.
我们对 NVIDIA 驱动程序也这样做了。
So the NVIDIA drivers, when they came straight off the, I think the Arch repo, were not compressed with the most extreme form of compression, which I think called ZSTD, which is a really slow form of compression.
因此,当 NVIDIA 驱动程序直接来自 Arch 存储库时,它们并没有采用最极端的压缩形式进行压缩,我认为这种压缩形式称为 ZSTD,这是一种非常缓慢的压缩形式。
It’s slow to create the archive, but if you’re building a package- Hmm …
创建存档的速度很慢,但如果您正在构建一个包 - 嗯......
you have all the time in the world if that means you can then shrink the ISO.
如果这意味着你可以缩小 ISO,你就有足够的时间了。
So on just the two NVIDIA packages, I think we saved 200 megabytes.
因此,仅在两个 NVIDIA 软件包上,我认为我们就节省了 200 MB。
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
So what I loved about this was I imagined myself being a car designer at McLaren.
所以我喜欢这个的原因是我想象自己是迈凯伦的一名汽车设计师。
2:10:06 So McLaren makes some of the lightest super sports cars in the world right now, and they are absolutely obsessed with shaving every damn last gram off their cars.
因此,迈凯伦目前正在制造一些世界上最轻的超级跑车,并且他们绝对痴迷于削减汽车的最后一克重量。
That’s why even a new 750S McLaren is just way lighter than the competition.
这就是为什么新款 750S 迈凯伦也比竞争对手轻得多。
They use a carbon fiber monocoque, and that helps them over like Ferrari, for example, that uses aluminum.
他们使用碳纤维硬壳式车身,这有助于他们像法拉利一样使用铝制车身。
But they also just have this obsession with weight, and I would see this interview with the McLaren folks talking to some journalist just going over, “Yeah, we saved 370 grams off that one.” And I just went, “Wait, what?
但他们也对重量有这种痴迷,我会看到迈凯伦人员在接受采访时与一些记者交谈,“是的,我们减轻了 370 克。”我只是说:“等等,什么?
There’s someone on a car that weighs maybe 1,040 kilos or 1,380 or something.
一辆汽车上有人,重量可能有 1,040 公斤或 1,380 公斤之类的。
They’re worrying about 370 grams?” Yeah.
他们在担心 370 克吗?”是的。
What obsessed maniacs.
多么痴迷的疯子。
Yeah.
是的。
I love them.
我爱他们。
Yeah.
是的。
I want that in my life.
我希望在我的生活中如此。
2:11:02 I want a McLaren just for that reason.
出于这个原因,我想要一辆迈凯伦。
So I thought in that moment as I was shaving individual megabytes off the packages, man, I’m kinda like a McLaren car developer here, even though I mean, we haven’t even completed that work.
因此,当我从软件包中削减单个兆字节时,我想,伙计,我有点像这里的迈凯伦汽车开发人员,尽管我的意思是,我们甚至还没有完成这项工作。
The package could shrink even more.
包装可能会缩小得更多。
But this is actually this other conflict that we’ve had with Omarchy and the traditional Linux community is bloat.
但这实际上是我们与 Omarchy 之间的另一场冲突,而传统的 Linux 社区已经臃肿不堪。
This idea that it’s actually not kosher in certain circles to ship with pre-installed software because who are you to make decisions about what programs people should use?
这种想法认为,在某些圈子里附带预装软件实际上是不合规矩的,因为你是谁来决定人们应该使用哪些程序?
And I’m like, “Dude, it’s in the fucking name.
我想,“伙计,这就是他妈的名字。
It’s called Omarchy because the Oma part is short for omakase, which literally means chef’s choice.
之所以称为 Omarchy,是因为 Oma 部分是 omakase 的缩写,字面意思是厨师的选择。
I’m the chef.
我是厨师。
2:11:47 I’m making the choices, and this is the collection of applications I think is awesome,” which by the way has a video editor.
我正在做出选择,这是我认为非常棒的应用程序集合,”顺便说一下,它有一个视频编辑器。
It ships with OBS to do your recording.
它与 OBS 一起提供来进行录音。
It’s just in there.
它就在那里。
Yeah.
是的。
OBS is pre-installed.
预装OBS。
Nice.
好的。
Kdenlive is a video editor, timeline editor, which is great.
Kdenlive 是一个视频编辑器、时间线编辑器,非常棒。
I edit all my videos with that.
我用它编辑我所有的视频。
And then I made my own clip editor.
然后我制作了自己的剪辑编辑器。
You talked about the thing with syncing up.
你谈到了同步的事情。
Yeah.
是的。
I had this thing with clips, so I would do a podcast or whatever.
我有一个带有剪辑的东西,所以我会做一个播客或其他什么。
I need a clip for X.
我需要 X 的剪辑。
And it’s kind of a hassle to use Kdenlive or other timeline editors, so I made Omacut.
而且使用 Kdenlive 或其他时间轴编辑器有点麻烦,所以我制作了 Omacut。
Omacut is included too.
Omacut 也包括在内。
Omacut, cool.
奥马库特,酷。
It’s just for making clips, and you can drive the whole thing with keyboard.
它只是用于制作剪辑,你可以用键盘驱动整个东西。
So you can go to just the right time mark.
这样您就可以到达正确的时间标记。
2:12:25 and then you can hit Control + Space.
然后你可以按 Control + Space。
It moves the clip line to that line.
它将剪辑线移动到该线。
Then you go to the end of the clip, and you hit Alt + Space, and it moves the end line.
然后转到剪辑的末尾,按 Alt + Space,它会移动结束线。
Nice.
好的。
And then you hit Control + S, and it saves.
然后你按 Control + S,它就保存了。
Nice.
好的。
I can make clips so damn fast now with Omacut.
我现在可以用 Omacut 快速制作剪辑了。
It’s amazing.
太棒了。
But it has all the software on it.
但它上面有所有的软件。
It has Neovim on it.
它上面有 Neovim。
It has Herdr on it.
上面有 Herdr。
It has Tmux.
它有 Tmux。
It has a terminal.
它有一个终端。
It has a bunch of themes.
它有很多主题。
It has a bunch of background images, the best ones I could pick out.
它有一堆背景图片,是我能选出的最好的。
That takes up some space.
这会占用一些空间。
It should because this is not supposed to be this just barren landscape where you have to reconstruct everything.
应该是这样,因为这不应该是一片贫瘠的土地,你必须重建一切。
This is supposed to be a productive system the minute you unpack it.
当您打开包装时,这应该是一个高效的系统。
What is it built in?
它内置了什么?
2:13:05 So it’s actually mostly built in Bash for the Linux configuration part.
所以它实际上主要是用 Bash 构建的 Linux 配置部分。
Right.
正确的。
Bash is a great language for that.
Bash 是一种很棒的语言。
It is made for that really, for system administration.
它确实是为了系统管理而设计的。
It also has its limitations.
它也有其局限性。
You should not build everything in Bash.
您不应该在 Bash 中构建所有内容。
How are agents with generating Bash?
代理生成 Bash 的情况如何?
2:13:21 Pretty good?
不错?
Oh, amazing.
哦,太棒了。
Okay.
好的。
Except for one thing, and I have to smack the agents over the back of the head every single time I catch it, and remind it to look at the agent’s MD file, because I will have an instruction in there not to make early exits.
除了一件事之外,每次我抓住它时,我都必须拍打特工的后脑勺,并提醒它查看特工的 MD 文件,因为里面会有一条指示,不要提前退出。
2:13:24 The agents love to have preconditions instead of fully expanded conditionals.
代理喜欢有先决条件而不是完全扩展的条件。
I like something that says, “If this, then do that.” Agents like to have precondition or exit, another precondition or exit.
我喜欢这样一句话:“如果这样,那就那样做。”代理人喜欢有先决条件或退出,另一个先决条件或退出。
2:13:53 And then it falls down to the final thing it actually wants to do.
然后它就归结为它真正想做的最后一件事。
I hate that style.
我讨厌那种风格。
So except for that, it’s gotten shockingly, dramatically, awesomely good, to the point where when we talked last time, we talked about how I would ask the agent for a Bash thing, and then I would type it in myself, and I kinda wouldn’t remember.
所以除此之外,它变得令人震惊、戏剧性、非常好,以至于我们上次谈话时,我们讨论了如何向代理询问 Bash 的东西,然后我会自己输入它,但我有点不记得了。
And then I took the effort to make sure that all that competence wasn’t draining out of my fingers, so I actually learned how to write Bash myself, and now I’m not writing any Bash myself.
然后我努力确保所有这些能力都不会从我的手指中流失,所以我实际上学会了如何自己编写 Bash,现在我自己不再编写任何 Bash。
I have not written any Bash myself for probably a couple months, because the agents have just gotten so good, that if you give them the few pointers on style, and occasionally put pushback on complexity…
我自己可能已经有几个月没有写过任何 Bash 了,因为代理已经变得非常好,如果你给他们一些关于风格的指导,偶尔在复杂性上提出一些建议……
This is…
这是……
I tweeted about this a couple of days ago.
几天前我在推特上谈到了这个问题。
2:14:32 It blows my mind how often an agent can do something, say it’s done, have the work reviewed by another agent- …
令我震惊的是,一个代理人经常做某事,说它已经完成,让另一个代理人审查工作——……
they say it’s done, and then I go like, “Eh, looks a little too complicated for me.” And then it’ll go like, “Oh, yeah, you’re right.
他们说已经完成了,然后我就说,“呃,对我来说看起来有点太复杂了。”然后它会这样说:“哦,是的,你是对的。
You’re right.
你是对的。
I totally overcomplicated this,” and it’ll cut it in half.
我把这个搞得太复杂了”,它会把它减半。
I’m like, “Couldn’t it just do this, like, from the outset?” And then someone else reminded me, humans are the same way.
我想,“难道不能从一开始就这样做吗?”然后有人提醒我,人类也是如此。
If you work on something and someone else reviews it and they just are like, “Eh, it looks a little complicated,” quite often you’re able to go like, “Ah, you’re right.”
如果你在做某件事,而其他人评论了它,他们只是说,“呃,它看起来有点复杂”,那么你通常会说,“啊,你是对的。”
See, that just…
你看,那只是……
2:15:05 Those little indications to me show that the programmer is still needed, that intuition, ’cause I think, what did you say?
这些小迹象对我来说表明仍然需要程序员,那种直觉,因为我想,你说什么?
I have a sense of the landscape of the code.
我对代码的景观有一定的了解。
When I build something like Omarchy, I do look at the code.
当我构建像 Omarchy 这样的东西时,我会查看代码。
2:15:17 I look at the shape.
我看形状。
Yeah.
是的。
And I look at the proportions.
我看比例。
Yeah.
是的。
Like, I don’t have to chisel everything myself anymore.
就像,我不必再自己凿一切东西了。
2:15:24 This is, again, when I’m flattering myself for…
这又是我自吹自擂的时候……
Not one moment I’m a McLaren auto engineer, and the next moment I’m a da Vinci, working with his whole studio of students- …
前一刻我是迈凯轮汽车工程师,下一刻我就是达芬奇,与他的整个工作室的学生一起工作——……
who are doing all the chiseling on the, the fine marble, right?
谁在精美的大理石上进行所有的凿刻工作,对吧?
And he goes like, “Ah, no, the proportions are not quite right.” That’s how it feels working with agents now, that I can give feedback like an editor.
他说:“啊,不,比例不太正确。”这就是现在与代理商合作的感觉,我可以像编辑一样提供反馈。
2:15:50 That, do you know what?
那,你知道什么吗?
I’m not gonna write everything myself, but I can tell you when the argument doesn’t land.
我不会自己写下所有内容,但当争论不成立时我可以告诉你。
I can tell you when the shape isn’t proportional to the problem, or when it just feels like it’s too complicated.
我可以告诉你什么时候形状与问题不成比例,或者什么时候感觉太复杂。
And shockingly often, it just works.
令人震惊的是,它常常奏效。
It’s like the early days, where the joke was, “Don’t make mistakes.” I don’t think you have to tell the agents that anymore, because now the harnesses are so good, they run automated testing.
就像早期的笑话一样,“不要犯错误”。我认为你不必再告诉代理了,因为现在的安全带非常好,他们可以运行自动化测试。
They get that feedback.
他们得到反馈。
But you actually do have to tell them, “Make it simpler.”
但你实际上必须告诉他们,“让它变得更简单。”
Do you use voice at all for the interaction?
您是否使用语音进行交互?
2:16:19 Or are you…
或者你是……
How much are you typing?
你打字多少?
How much are you-
你多少钱——
I type the whole thing.
我把整个内容都写下来。
2:16:23 I actually, in Omarchy’s built-in Voxtype- …
事实上,我在 Omarchy 的内置 Voxtype 中-...
Audio transcription, and it’s actually really good.
音频转录,实际上非常好。
I just find that I don’t think that way, and it surprised myself that I don’t like to talk to the computer.
我只是发现我不这么想,我自己也很惊讶我不喜欢和电脑说话。
I like when I’m in the car, but when I’m in front of the keyboard, I just wanna type.
我喜欢在车里的时候,但是当我在键盘前时,我只想打字。
I also just love typing.
我也只是喜欢打字。
Are you using the voice?
你用的是语音吗?
I’m an introvert who doesn’t like social interaction- …
我是一个性格内向的人,不喜欢社交……
2:16:46 or speaking.
或说话。
And-
还有——
I think that’s part of mine too.
我想这也是我的一部分。
But, like, for me, for some reason, voice is really powerful.
但是,对我来说,出于某种原因,声音真的很强大。
2:16:53 I want to give this…
我想给这个……
So I run with this thing.
所以我就带着这个东西跑。
It’s called Plaud.
这叫普劳德。
So I just hook it up on my, you know on my T-shirt here.
所以我只是把它挂在我的 T 恤上。
2:17:05 You press a button, it starts recording.
你按下一个按钮,它就开始录音。
And this is actually more, in terms of flow, much better experience than behind a computer.
就流程而言,这实际上比在计算机后面有更好的体验。
And I save, well, usually it’s agent generated problems that I wanna really talk through.
我保存,嗯,通常是代理产生的问题,我想真正讨论一下。
And so I write, I speak a long prompt, like, and a lot of it, it’s like stream of consciousness reasoning.
所以我写,我说一个很长的提示,很多,就像意识流推理。
So I’ll sometimes just change my mind about a design, but all of that is in there, and then I have an LLM that processes that.
所以有时我会改变我对设计的想法,但所有这些都在那里,然后我有一个法学硕士来处理它。
With Plaud, there’s a, obviously an API.
对于 Plaud,显然有一个 API。
You can grab it, transcribe it, clean up the transcript, ’cause you want it to be…
你可以抓住它,转录它,清理转录本,因为你想要它......
‘Cause I’m referring to files.
因为我指的是文件。
I’m referring to technical concepts, like files and functions- …
我指的是技术概念,比如文件和函数——……
and so on, that you wanna make sure the transcription, the-
等等,你想确保转录,-
2:17:56 …
……
the speech-to-text gets correctly.
语音到文本的转换正确。
So you wanna have a dictionary.
所以你想要一本字典。
You want it to be aware of the code base when you process the files.
您希望它在处理文件时了解代码库。
And then you have this gigantic thing that’s often 10, 15, 20 minute me discussing the full design, and I find that to be really, really powerful.
然后你就会看到这个巨大的事情,我通常会花 10、15、20 分钟讨论完整的设计,我发现这真的非常非常强大。
Because it doesn’t have the problem of overspecification because of how much stream of consciousness thinking the system has about what you’re imagining.
因为它不存在过度规范的问题,因为系统对你的想象有多少意识流。
And this is really good for the early steps of a design.
这对于设计的早期步骤确实很有好处。
Like, if I wanted to build Omarchy from scratch, the first stages, I talk through.
就像,如果我想从头开始构建 Omarchy,我会在第一阶段进行讨论。
It could be an hour.
可能要一个小时。
There’s been prompts that I had for an hour, and I’m just running and-
我已经有一个小时的提示了,我只是跑着——
That’s amazing.
太棒了。
…
……
2:18:40 and speaking.
和说话。
I highly recommend people try a voice-based-
我强烈建议人们尝试基于语音的-
So-
所以——
…
……
2:18:48 speaking for prolonged periods of time.
长时间讲话。
I haven’t actually-
我其实还没有——
As opposed to very specific…
与非常具体的相反……
…
……
2:18:52 I haven’t, yeah, I haven’t used it like that, and maybe that’s how I’m using it wrong.
我没有,是的,我没有这样使用过它,也许这就是我使用它的错误方式。
I try to just type or speak two sentences, and then I get a little frustrated that I could’ve typed that just as fast, maybe.
我尝试只输入或说出两个句子,然后我有点沮丧,因为我可能可以同样快地输入这句话。
But I have not tried this whole thing of just talking continuously for 20 minutes.
但我还没有尝试过连续说话 20 分钟的整个过程。
And especially you because you speak very fast.
尤其是你,因为你说得很快。
Yeah.
是的。
2:19:12 No, I could see it.
不,我可以看到它。
I think because the reason I’ve been trying to do it for things like replying to emails, and it got to a point where I thought it could help.
我想是因为我一直在尝试这样做,比如回复电子邮件之类的事情,而且我认为它可以有所帮助。
And it sort of did, but then it would make a small mistake, and I’d have to correct the mistake.
它确实做到了,但是它会犯一个小错误,我必须纠正这个错误。
But if you’re doing stream of consciousness to an LLM who doesn’t care about all this other stuff anyway— …
但如果你正在为一个不关心所有其他事情的法学硕士做意识流——……
that probably works way better.
这可能效果更好。
There’s two things you have to do.
有两件事你必须做。
2:19:34 One, okay, you have the raw audio, transcribes it.
一,好吧,你有原始音频,转录它。
I use ElevenLabs for transcription.
我使用 ElevenLabs 进行转录。
They’re probably the best speech-to-text model.
它们可能是最好的语音到文本模型。
There’s still mistakes there, so you need to have a prompt that has access to a dictionary and to a lot of—
那里仍然存在错误,所以你需要有一个可以访问字典和很多的提示——
How do you build the dictionary?
你如何建立字典?
First of all, there’s a dictionary of terms that are relevant to you.
首先,有一本与您相关的术语词典。
2:19:52 Then have it aware of…
然后让它意识到……
So you have an agent that looks through, when you’re talking about code, looks through your entire code base for key terms that you use often.
因此,当您谈论代码时,您有一个代理可以查看整个代码库以查找您经常使用的关键术语。
Also, when we’re talking about messaging, Gmail, and WhatsApp, and so on, it’s aware of all the people and common terms that you get wrong.
此外,当我们谈论消息、Gmail 和 WhatsApp 等时,它会意识到您弄错的所有人员和常见术语。
You’ve really gone deep in this.
你在这方面确实已经深入了。
That, to me, is a problem that needs to be solved-
对我来说,这是一个需要解决的问题——
Yes.
是的。
…
……
2:20:15 because one of the issues you probably have with speech-to-text is that it makes mistakes sometimes.
因为语音转文本可能会遇到的问题之一是它有时会出错。
Correct.
正确的。
2:20:22 Then I can’t use it for dictating an email.
然后我就不能用它来听写电子邮件了。
Right.
正确的。
2:20:25 If it never makes mistakes, you-
如果它从不犯错误,那么你——
Then it would be more appealing.
那么它会更有吸引力。
Yeah, and you are okay being not perfectly real time, actually.
是的,实际上,不完全实时也没关系。
2:20:29 You’re okay waiting five seconds-
你等五秒钟就可以了-
Right.
对。
…
……
2:20:35 potentially.
潜在的。
I don’t know what your use case is.
我不知道你的用例是什么。
I’m okay waiting five seconds- …
我可以等五秒钟-...
10 seconds for it to process everything.
它需要 10 秒来处理所有内容。
You gotta vibe code this into an app that does all of this such that-
你必须将其编码到一个应用程序中,该应用程序可以完成所有这些操作,以便-
Right.
对。
…
……
2:20:46 it just works.
它就是有效的。
I think I mentioned to you offline that it’s very surprising to me that translation is not done perfectly.
我想我在线下曾向您提到过,翻译的不完美让我感到非常惊讶。
Right.
正确的。
Speech-to-speech translation.
语音到语音翻译。
It seems like you’ve gotten much closer to the best of what’s possible by putting all these things together.
通过将所有这些事情放在一起,您似乎已经离最好的可能更近了。
But, you know, when you’re shipping that kind of stuff, you do have to start thinking about latency.
但是,你知道,当你运送这类东西时,你确实必须开始考虑延迟。
Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of good.
不要让完美成为美好的敌人。
2:21:11 I mean, if you’re suddenly enabling something people wouldn’t be doing before at all, it’s okay to take five seconds longer.
我的意思是,如果你突然启用了人们以前根本不会做的事情,那么多花五秒钟是可以的。
I think this is one of the areas that Steve Jobs was so good, that he realized, like, the first iPhone was terrible in all sorts of ways, right?
我认为这是史蒂夫·乔布斯非常擅长的领域之一,他意识到,第一部 iPhone 在各个方面都很糟糕,对吧?
Absolutely horrendously slow data connection, very underpowered, all the things.
数据连接速度绝对慢得可怕,动力非常不足,所有这些。
But the product was so compelling that it just didn’t matter.
但该产品是如此引人注目,以至于这并不重要。
You’d be shipping too late if you waited until everything was just right, just perfect.
如果你等到一切都恰到好处、完美无缺才发货,那你就太晚了。
If you’re solving a problem that people currently don’t have a solution for, they’re willing to give it five seconds.
如果你正在解决人们目前无法解决的问题,他们愿意给它五秒钟。
2:21:49 If you’re in a competitive market, yeah, okay, it’s different.
如果你处于竞争市场,是的,好吧,那就不同了。
But that means the problem’s already solved, and you don’t need to solve it.
但这意味着问题已经解决了,你不需要解决它。
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
2:21:54 Well, I do think there’s a few…
嗯,我确实认为有一些……
So, like, Whisper flow is really good.
所以,像 Whisper flow 真的很好。
A few people have stepped up that speech-to-text thing.
有些人已经加强了语音转文本的工作。
Yeah.
是的。
2:22:02 Yeah, we’re using VoxType.
是的,我们正在使用 VoxType。
VoxType?
沃克斯类型?
But others have-
但其他人却——
VoxType is open source?
VoxType 是开源的吗?
It is.
这是。
2:22:07 It’s just using one of the open models.
它只是使用一种开放模型。
I forget which parrot model it’s using or something like that.
我忘记它使用的是哪种鹦鹉模型或类似的东西。
It works quite well for short commands, so I have used it for that.
它对于短命令非常有效,所以我就用它来实现。
I think you just hold down F9- …
我认为你只需按住 F9-...
and it starts a dictation.
然后它开始听写。
Oh, so it’s already in there?
哦,那么它已经在那里了?
You just have to get online.
您只需要上网即可。
2:22:23 It’ll offer you to install- …
它会提示您安装-...
the VoxType package.
VoxType 包。
Because the VoxType package includes a model that’s 150 megabytes, and I was like, “Ah.” “I don’t know if I can carry that.” So- …
因为 VoxType 包中包含一个 150 MB 的模型,我当时就想,“啊。” “我不知道我是否可以携带它。”所以——……
we don’t have that in there by default, but we have the option set up.
默认情况下我们没有这个选项,但我们设置了这个选项。
And I actually just yesterday was thinking we really need to combine all of these things.
实际上我昨天还在想我们真的需要将所有这些东西结合起来。
So Omarchy Quattro is truly amazing as a malleable operating system where you can add functionality to it just by talking to your agent.
因此,Omarchy Quattro 作为一个可延展的操作系统确实令人惊叹,您只需与您的代理交谈即可为其添加功能。
2:22:56 But that’s exactly what we should be doing.
但这正是我们应该做的。
There’s a lot of people who would find it very natural just to talk to their computer and say, “Hey, can you make me a stock panel?
有很多人会觉得很自然地对着他们的计算机说:“嘿,你能为我制作一个库存面板吗?
I wanna track Apple and Dell,” and just see the agent go off through, entirely through voice, both in terms of the input and in terms of the output, and then your operating system just changes.
我想跟踪苹果和戴尔”,然后看到代理完全通过语音,无论是输入还是输出,然后你的操作系统就会发生变化。
This was the vision of Iron Man and Jarvis and-
这是钢铁侠和贾维斯的愿景,而且——
2:23:23 …
……
bespoke applications that just appear magically.
神奇地出现的定制应用程序。
I’m thinking the area of AI I find truly intriguing are these live gaming models, I don’t know if you’ve seen that, where the AI’s inventing literally the next frame, but you can actually play the game.
我认为真正有趣的人工智能领域是这些实时游戏模型,我不知道你是否见过,人工智能实际上正在发明下一帧,但你实际上可以玩游戏。
And I think if they’re able to do that, why can’t we do that with our operating system?
我认为如果他们能够做到这一点,为什么我们不能用我们的操作系统做到这一点?
Why can’t we just talk to it and ask it to be a different way or change, and it’ll all just change?
为什么我们不能直接与它交谈并要求它以不同的方式或改变,然后一切都会改变?
I think this, by the way, is one of the other breakthroughs that is going to lead to the total domination of Linux.
顺便说一句,我认为这是导致 Linux 完全统治的其他突破之一。
The agents have taken all the hardship out of diagnosing Linux systems and turned the fact that Linux produces these overly specific, totally arcane error messages into its greatest advantage.
这些代理已经消除了诊断 Linux 系统的所有困难,并将 Linux 产生这些过于具体、完全神秘的错误消息的事实转化为它的最大优势。
2:24:12 When Linux has an issue, the agent can take that very specific error message that makes no sense to a normal human and correlate it with the fact that the agent was pre-trained on 40 million lines of Linux code, so it knows exactly where to look and dial it down.
当 Linux 出现问题时,代理可以获取对普通人来说毫无意义的非常具体的错误消息,并将其与代理在 4000 万行 Linux 代码上进行预训练的事实相关联,因此它确切地知道在哪里查找并解决问题。
I have not had a single problem on my Linux machine since the beginning of this year that an agent could not diagnose.
自今年年初以来,我的 Linux 机器上没有出现过代理无法诊断的问题。
That was not true a year and a half ago.
一年半前情况并非如此。
A year and a half ago, I was still searching on forums- …
一年半前,我还在论坛上搜索——……
to find answers to esoteric questions.
寻找深奥问题的答案。
2:24:45 Now the agents know the source code of not just the Linux operating system, but every single piece of software I have on that box.
现在,特工们不仅知道 Linux 操作系统的源代码,还知道我在那个盒子上的每一个软件的源代码。
The agent has access to the source code of all of it.
代理可以访问所有内容的源代码。
In fact, this was one thing I built in just before we shipped.
事实上,这是我在发货之前内置的一件事。
So once you set up your default agent- …
因此,一旦您设置了默认代理 - ...
Omarchy Quattro has a crash watcher.
Omarchy Quattro 有一个崩溃观察器。
If any app on your machine crashes, it’ll pop up a little thing, ask you whether you want your AI to diagnose the problem.
如果你机器上的任何应用程序崩溃了,它会弹出一个小东西,询问你是否希望你的人工智能来诊断问题。
Yeah.
是的。
2:25:13 That’s amazing.
太棒了。
Unbelievable.
难以置信。
2:25:14 I’ve seen things where there’s an error in some subsystem.
我见过一些子系统出现错误的情况。
Some…
一些…
Not even Linux, just some app I installed.
甚至不是 Linux,只是我安装的一些应用程序。
The agents start digging through the logs and look up systemd log.
代理开始挖掘日志并查找 systemd 日志。
Then it checks out the damn source code.
然后它检查该死的源代码。
Of the application that crashed, pins down that it’s in this Rust file line 472 that there’s an unbounded, unwrapped variable that overflowed or whatever it is.
在崩溃的应用程序中,确定在 Rust 文件第 472 行中有一个无界、未包装的变量溢出或无论它是什么。
Then offers you whether you wanna file a bug report with all this detail.
然后告诉您是否要提交包含所有这些详细信息的错误报告。
I’ll give you one amazing anecdote.
我会给你讲一件令人惊奇的轶事。
So I was working with this guy JDX, who’s working on mise.
所以我和 JDX 一起工作,他正在研究 mise。
This, this package manager for fast-moving development tools.
这个,这个用于快速移动开发工具的包管理器。
This is how we manage all the agent software and so forth.
这就是我们管理所有代理软件等的方式。
Normal package managers are not built to be updated seven times a day.
普通的包管理器并不是每天更新七次。
2:26:04 And all of these agent harnesses are updated about seven times a day, so we needed an out-of-band package manager, and mise just turns out to be perfect for this.
所有这些代理工具每天大约更新七次,因此我们需要一个带外包管理器,而事实证明 mise 非常适合此目的。
Anyway, it had a small bug.
无论如何,它有一个小错误。
There was some race condition which agents are very good at finding because when you start running multiple agents at the same time, they will suss out all these race conditions you have in your underlying infrastructure that was never triggered by a human trying to do manual thing.
代理非常擅长发现一些竞争条件,因为当您开始同时运行多个代理时,它们会找出底层基础设施中的所有这些竞争条件,而这些条件永远不会由人类尝试执行手动操作触发。
So it finds this issue, right?
所以它发现了这个问题,对吗?
I tell the agent, “Hey can you post this as a bug report to, to JDX’s GitHub?” And unfortunately, right before that, I had had to do a QA run on Omarchy itself with eight different agents.
我告诉代理:“嘿,您可以将其作为错误报告发布到 JDX 的 GitHub 上吗?”不幸的是,就在这之前,我不得不使用八个不同的代理对 Omarchy 本身进行 QA 运行。
It had found 28 real issues-
它发现了 28 个真正的问题——
2:26:48 …
……
that it needed to file.
它需要归档。
Well, it went to GitHub and tried to file all 28 issues at the same time, which it did in about I don’t know, 12 seconds.
嗯,它转到 GitHub 并尝试同时提交所有 28 个问题,大约用了 12 秒(我不知道)。
GitHub, not unreasonably, marked that as probable spam and banned- …
GitHub 将其标记为可能的垃圾邮件并被禁止,这并非没有道理——……
my Omarchy bot.
我的 Omarchy 机器人。
And then I couldn’t do that.
然后我就做不到了。
So I was blocked from the bot having access to GitHub, so I just told it, “Hey, do you know what?
所以我被阻止了机器人访问 GitHub,所以我只是告诉它,“嘿,你知道吗?
Just email JDX.
只需向 JDX 发送电子邮件即可。
Here’s his email address.” I had already set it up with hey.com- …
这是他的电子邮件地址。”我已经在 hey.com 上进行了设置-...
an email address.
电子邮件地址。
We have a CLI that’s in beta right now.
我们有一个 CLI 目前处于测试阶段。
2:27:20 So I set it up with that so it can send to email.
所以我对其进行了设置,以便它可以发送到电子邮件。
That’s how it gives me reports about outstanding issues and, and PR.
这就是它为我提供有关未决问题和公关的报告的方式。
So it sends JDX this email about the bug it found, and he was like, “Wait, this is the first time I’ve gotten a bug report in unreleased software.” Because it had downloaded the source code to mise, saw that he had already fixed the bug, but that it would not fix the problem entirely in software they had not shipped yet.
因此,它向 JDX 发送了这封有关其发现的错误的电子邮件,他说:“等等,这是我第一次收到未发布软件的错误报告。”因为它已经将源代码下载到mise,看到他已经修复了错误,但是它并不能完全修复他们尚未发布的软件中的问题。
Pinpointed the problem, and he was like, “Damn it- …
查明了问题所在,他就像是,“该死的——......
I got a bug report before we even cut a release.”
在我们发布版本之前,我就收到了错误报告。”
That’s amazing.
太棒了。
Un-
不-
That’s amazing
太棒了
…
……
2:27:54 believable AGI levels of mind-blowing stuff.
令人难以置信的令人难以置信的 AGI 水平。
And that was actually, y- if you remember, that was, that was an open question whether AI systems could debug well.
实际上,如果你还记得的话,那就是,人工智能系统是否能够很好地调试是一个悬而未决的问题。
2:27:58 That, that was kinda the, the, the thought that, yeah, sure, they can write code, but can they find issues and-
那,那有点,那,想法,是的,当然,他们可以编写代码,但是他们能发现问题并且-
They are so incredibly good at this, and this is actually interesting because I was on the perhaps same side of that, a little skeptical about can it reason about all these things.
他们在这方面非常擅长,这实际上很有趣,因为我可能站在同一边,有点怀疑它能否推理所有这些事情。
2:28:10 And Mikhail, who’s the CTO at Shopify, ran a scientific study on this.
Shopify 首席技术官米哈伊尔对此进行了一项科学研究。
They had…
他们有……
And this was, I think, late last year or early this year, where he had agents go back through all the incidents, both outages and other problems that Shopify had had in production, trace that back to the PR that was merged, and find out whether PRs that had been reviewed by human or PRs that had been reviewed by agents were of higher quality.
我认为,这是去年年底或今年年初,他让代理回顾了 Shopify 在生产中遇到的所有事件,包括停机和其他问题,追溯到合并的 PR,并找出经过人工审核的 PR 或经过代理审核的 PR 是否具有更高的质量。
Well, lo and surprise-
好吧,瞧,令人惊讶的是——
2:28:50 …
……
the PRs that have been reviewed by agents caused all fewer issues in production.
经过代理商审查的 PR 在生产中引起的问题较少。
And this was with models we had six months ago.
这是我们六个月前的模型。
At this point, 100% in the majority of domains we work in today, agents are better at finding bugs.
目前,在我们今天工作的大多数领域中,代理 100% 更擅长发现错误。
So you now run agents all day.
所以你现在整天都在运行代理。
2:29:06 What stands out to you as the better model?
您觉得什么是更好的模型?
Who’s currently winning?
目前谁获胜?
It seems to be changing constantly.
它似乎在不断变化。
Sol, Fable, Grok 4.6, Gemini, the Chinese OpenWay models.
Sol、Fable、Grok 4.6、Gemini、中国OpenWay型号。
What’s amazing to me is that you could rattle off so many different contenders.
让我惊奇的是,你可以一口气说出这么多不同的竞争者。
2:29:23 That this market is so wide open, that it does actually change back and forth, that we have real competition, that there are so many labs that are able to get either to the frontier or close to it.
这个市场是如此开放,它确实在来回变化,我们有真正的竞争,有如此多的实验室能够到达前沿或接近前沿。
That, by the way, is remarkable.
顺便说一下,这很了不起。
I still don’t fully understand that.
我仍然不完全明白这一点。
But to answer your question, the best model in general right now is Fable.
但要回答你的问题,目前最好的模型是《神鬼寓言》。
The second-best model, in my opinion, is Opus 5.
在我看来,第二好的型号是 Opus 5。
But the tier just below Opus 5, and it’s not even that they’re always below, sometimes they’re ahead.
但略低于 Opus 5 的级别,甚至并不总是低于,有时甚至领先。
I’ll get to that in a second.
我稍后会讲到这一点。
I would rank GPT Sol as very good.
我认为 GPT Sol 非常好。
2:30:12 Grok 4.6 I just started testing a few days ago.
Grok 4.6 我几天前才开始测试。
I had this wonderful test that I’ve set up by accident where I translated this Python library into Rust.
我偶然进行了一次精彩的测试,将这个 Python 库翻译成 Rust。
The screensaver you just saw with all the cool animation?
您刚刚看到的带有所有炫酷动画的屏幕保护程序?
Yep.
是的。
That’s powered by a Python library called Terminal Text Effects.
它由一个名为 Terminal Text Effects 的 Python 库提供支持。
2:30:28 Really cool library.
真的很酷的图书馆。
We’ve been using it since the first day of Omarchy.
从 Omarchy 的第一天起我们就一直在使用它。
The problem with that is it’s written in Python, so when it starts up, especially on a laptop, and it runs in Python, it uses all of your CPU to do these effects, and therefore, it means it uses about 30 watts of energy, and it spins up your fans, and it drains your battery.
问题是它是用 Python 编写的,所以当它启动时,尤其是在笔记本电脑上,并且它在 Python 中运行,它会使用您所有的 CPU 来实现这些效果,因此,这意味着它使用大约 30 瓦的能量,它会转动您的风扇,并耗尽您的电池。
2:30:52 Doesn’t really matter on a local computer, but it does matter on a laptop.
在本地计算机上并不重要,但在笔记本电脑上确实很重要。
So I thought, “Do you know what?
所以我想:“你知道吗?
This sounds like a problem for Rust.” So first I gave Fable the challenge, and all I told it was, “Here’s the source code for the Python library,” this TTE library that had a bunch of dependencies and so forth.
这听起来对 Rust 来说是个问题。”所以首先我向《Fable》提出了挑战,我只告诉它“这是 Python 库的源代码”,这个 TTE 库有很多依赖项等等。
“I want a Rust version of this with no dependencies, a single executable.” Like, that’s what Rust does.
“我想要一个没有依赖项的 Rust 版本,一个可执行文件。”就像,这就是 Rust 所做的。
So basically, I want it in Rust.
所以基本上,我想用 Rust 来实现。
I want it to be pixel perfect, frame by frame, do a full analysis, don’t stop until you’re finished.
我希望它是像素完美的,逐帧进行,进行全面分析,直到完成为止不要停止。
Yep.
是的。
That was the prompt.
这就是提示。
Yep.
是的。
I kid you not, in just under 45 minutes, it was like Am I heard all?
我没骗你,在不到 45 分钟的时间里,我好像听到了一切?
Yeah.
是的。
I’m finished.
我完成了。
2:31:36 I’ve checked everything.
我已经检查了一切。
I have reduced the startup time from 86 milliseconds to two milliseconds.
我已将启动时间从 86 毫秒减少到 2 毫秒。
I have sped up the execution time by 9.6 times, I believe it was.
我相信我已经将执行时间加快了 9.6 倍。
The executable is three megabytes.
可执行文件大小为三兆字节。
Do you wanna run it?
你想运行它吗?
That’s awesome.
太棒了。
So I run it—
所以我运行它——
Oh, man.
哦,伙计。
…
……
2:32:02 and I don’t know why I’m surprised, because this translation job is something we’ve known for a while that AI is pretty good at, but it was still staggering to me that I could one-shot a full translation of a Python library I had been using for a year, that others had been using for much longer, and turn it into a Rust executable without knowing any Rust, without looking at the Rust code at all, and produce this executable that I then told the agent right after, “This is great.
我不知道为什么我很惊讶,因为这项翻译工作是我们已经知道人工智能相当擅长的事情,但令我惊讶的是,我可以一次性完整翻译我已经使用了一年的 Python 库,而其他人已经使用了更长时间,并将其转换为 Rust 可执行文件,而无需了解任何 Rust,根本不需要查看 Rust 代码,并生成这个可执行文件,然后我告诉代理,“这太棒了。
Ship it.” It packaged it up as a new package.
发货吧。”它将它打包为一个新包。
It told me, “What do you want it to call?” “Uh, let’s call it TTFX.
它告诉我,“你想让它叫什么?” “呃,我们就叫它 TTFX 吧。
Let’s create a new Git repo.” It sets up the Git repo.
让我们创建一个新的 Git 存储库。”它设置 Git 存储库。
“Let’s create a new package, build package for our build system.” It puts that up.
“让我们创建一个新包,为我们的构建系统构建包。”它提出了这一点。
“Let’s push it out.
“我们把它推出去吧。
2:32:49 Let’s open the pull request to the Omarchy itself so we switch around from TTE, the Python implementation, to TTFX.” It does all of it, and I’m just sitting there.
让我们向 Omarchy 本身打开拉取请求,以便我们从 TTE(Python 实现)切换到 TTFX。”它完成了这一切,而我只是坐在那里。
And again, I’m already at this point fully delirious with agent acceleration, and I still had to lean back and I go like, “This is AGI, isn’t it?
再说一遍,此时我已经对代理加速感到完全神志不清了,但我仍然需要向后靠,然后我会说:“这就是 AGI,不是吗?
This is what AGI looks like.
这就是 AGI 的样子。
If we have…
如果我们有……
If these moments are just what it is all the time, this is AGI.”
如果这些时刻都是如此,那么这就是 AGI。”
Now, as I understand, you also repeated the same experiment not just with Fable.
现在,据我了解,您不仅在《神鬼寓言》上重复了同样的实验。
I did it on all the models.
我在所有模型上都这样做了。
2:33:21 First, I did it…
首先,我做到了……
Actually, funny thing.
其实,很有趣的事情。
So I ran out of Fable tokens about two-thirds through, and it just automatically switched over to Opus 5 and kept going and finished the job.
所以我在大约三分之二的时间里用完了《神鬼寓言》代币,它就自动切换到 Opus 5 并继续运行并完成了工作。
Part of the reason why I think it was able to do that was that the first thing Fable did was create a plan, and it was a really detailed plan.
我认为它能够做到这一点的部分原因是《神鬼寓言》所做的第一件事就是制定一个计划,而且这是一个非常详细的计划。
I think it had eight separate steps of, “Here you do it, and here, how you analyze it, and here you run the effects,” and so on.
我认为它有八个独立的步骤,“在这里你做它,在这里,你如何分析它,在这里你运行效果,”等等。
I didn’t review the plan at all.
我根本没有审查这个计划。
I didn’t change the plan.
我没有改变计划。
It just made the plan so Opus could take over.
它只是制定了计划,以便 Opus 可以接管。
And then I thought, “Well, if Opus can finish the job, maybe some of the other agents could finish it, too.” So the first thing I did was I gave it to…
然后我想,“好吧,如果 Opus 可以完成这项工作,也许其他一些特工也可以完成它。”所以我做的第一件事就是把它交给……
I think I gave it to Sol.
我想我把它给了索尔。
2:34:05 And Sol finished the job, too.
索尔也完成了这项工作。
It took twice as long, so it took, I think, about an hour and a half.
花了两倍的时间,所以我想大约花了一个半小时。
But here’s the kicker.
但这是最关键的。
The per token cost, I didn’t pay per token.
每个代币的成本,我没有支付每个代币的费用。
I have a max subscription to Claude, right?
我对克劳德的订阅量是最大的,对吗?
So it did it within the subscription.
所以它是在订阅中完成的。
It used all my tokens, so I had to switch over to Opus 5.
它用完了我所有的代币,所以我不得不切换到 Opus 5。
But if I had paid per token, it would’ve been 550 bucks, I think, to do the whole thing.
但如果我按每个代币付费,我想完成整个事情需要 550 美元。
And I thought for a second, “Holy shit.
我想了一会儿,“天哪。
What a steal.” If I personally had to learn Rust well enough to be able to do this translation, I’m looking at a nine-month job here.
真是偷窃啊。”如果我个人必须学好 Rust 才能完成这个翻译,我会在这里寻找一份为期九个月的工作。
I can pay 500 bucks to have this translation happen, and suddenly I get a 10x execution speed up.
我可以支付 500 美元来进行这种翻译,突然间我的执行速度提高了 10 倍。
This is…
这是……
I would totally pay 500 bucks for this.
我愿意为此支付 500 美元。
2:34:48 But competition.
但竞争。
So I give it to Sol.
所以我把它交给索尔。
Same plan.
同样的计划。
To be fair, I didn’t ask Sol to do the plan.
公平地说,我并没有要求索尔做这个计划。
I just took the Fable plan, gave it to Sol.
我刚刚把《神鬼寓言》的计划交给了索尔。
Sol, in an hour and a half, and I think $46 worth of tokens, repeated the task.
Sol 在一个半小时内,用我认为价值 46 美元的代币,重复了这个任务。
Did the same thing.
做了同样的事情。
And I thought, “Well, blimey, that’s amazing.” Then I got greedy.
我想,“好吧,天哪,这太棒了。”然后我就贪心了。
So I asked GPT Luna, which is this crazy cheap model that OpenAI has as well, “Can you do it?” Absolutely not.
所以我问 GPT Luna(OpenAI 也有这个疯狂便宜的模型)“你能做到吗?”绝对不是。
First of all, it didn’t even wanna start the task.
首先,它甚至不想开始任务。
I think something happened—I don’t know, I think it was in the spring—where we didn’t need these slash goal things anymore.
我想发生了一些事情——我不知道,我想是在春天——我们不再需要这些大幅目标的东西了。
The agents could just automatically keep going in a loop if you told it not to stop-
如果你告诉它不要停止,代理就会自动继续循环——
2:35:44 …
……
and so forth.
等等。
So Sol could do that.
所以索尔可以做到这一点。
Fable could do that.
寓言可以做到这一点。
But Luna couldn’t.
但卢娜不能。
So I had…
所以我有……
I think I did 12 prompts.
我想我做了 12 次提示。
Kept telling it to do it, and eventually I sort of got it started.
不断地告诉它去做,最终我开始了。
The first thing it did was to cheat.
它做的第一件事就是作弊。
So the first thing, it looked outside its own directory, saw that there was already another implementation, and just did a short wrapper around that and said, “I’m done.” Hilarious.
因此,第一件事是,它查看自己的目录之外,发现已经有另一个实现,然后对其做了一个简短的包装,然后说:“我完成了。”搞笑。
But it couldn’t finish because it made just a couple things.
但它无法完成,因为它只做了几件事。
But I mean, okay, so it can’t do that.
但我的意思是,好吧,所以它不能这样做。
Then I gave it to Grok-
然后我把它给了 Grok-
Mm.
嗯。
…
……
2:36:15 46.
46.
And I had used Grok 45 a little bit, and I thought like, “Ah, I mean, it’s cool that there’s others trying, but, like, I’m not gonna use it,” because it felt quite far behind.
我用过一点 Grok 45,我想,“啊,我的意思是,有其他人在尝试,这很酷,但是,我不会使用它,”因为它感觉远远落后。
Grok 46 fucking completes the task.
Grok 46 他妈的完成任务了。
10x speed up, same size executable.
速度提高 10 倍,可执行文件大小相同。
$55 Worth of per token cost, I think it was.
我认为每个代币的成本价值 55 美元。
Absolutely unbelievable.
绝对令人难以置信。
Then I repeated, too, with Kimi K3- …
然后我也用 Kimi K3 重复了一遍——……
which took forever.
这花了很长时间。
I forget how long Kimi actually spent on it.
我忘记了 Kimi 实际上花了多长时间。
And then I also did it with DeepSeek V4 Flash first.
然后我也先用 DeepSeek V4 Flash 做了。
And Flash failed the same way that Luna did.
Flash 也像 Luna 一样失败了。
It couldn’t do it.
它做不到。
And then I did it with Pro, and Pro also completed the task.
然后我就用Pro来做,Pro也完成了任务。
It took 2 hours 45, $23.
花了2小时45分,23美元。
So here we are, right?
所以我们到了,对吧?
Like, Fable, clearly the best.
就像《神鬼寓言》,显然是最好的。
It was the fastest.
这是最快的。
It was the one that wrote the plan, but 550 bucks, and the output the same.
就是那个写计划的人,不过 550 美元,产出也一样。
2:37:12 The others, Sol, Grok, about the same, 1/10 the cost.
其他的,Sol,Grok,差不多,只是成本的 1/10。
DeepSeek, 1/20 the cost, but you have to wait a little longer.
DeepSeek,成本是1/20,但要等的时间长一点。
Absolutely gobsmackingly incredible.
绝对令人瞠目结舌。
And now, by the way, so I had Fable finish the first job, and then Opus finished it.
现在,顺便说一句,我让《神鬼寓言》完成了第一份工作,然后让《Opus》完成了它。
That was the first one shot, right?
这是第一枪吧?
It’s 10 times faster.
速度快了 10 倍。
I did two auto research runs, which isn’t even auto research anymore.
我进行了两次汽车研究,这甚至不再是汽车研究了。
You don’t have to do the slash.
你不必做斜线。
You just tell it to keep going until you tell it to stop.
你只要告诉它继续前进,直到你告诉它停止。
It ended up…
结果……
I think we ended up with a 46-time execution improvement over the original.
我认为我们最终的执行速度比原来提高了 46 倍。
It’s incredible.
太不可思议了。
Absolutely incredible.
绝对令人难以置信。
It’s just incredible.
这太不可思议了。
2:37:55 I do, you know, I just don’t think there’s anything that compares to Fable in terms of planning.
我确实如此,你知道,我只是认为在策划方面没有什么可以与《神鬼寓言》相比。
So I usually do Fable for planning and for reviewing and then something else for implementation, like Opus 5.
所以我通常会做《寓言》来进行规划和审查,然后再做一些其他的事情来实施,比如《Opus 5》。
And it’s really nice.
这真的很好。
It’s a really nice setup that allows you to not run out of tokens too much.
这是一个非常好的设置,可以让你不会用完太多的代币。
What I found, it’s really interesting because Fable is, in my opinion, the best model right now, but it also makes mistakes.
我发现,这真的很有趣,因为在我看来,《神鬼寓言》是目前最好的模型,但它也会犯错误。
2:38:14 And the best way to get the best software, I would actually rather have two differently sourced sort of…
获得最好软件的最好方法是,我实际上宁愿拥有两种不同来源的……
I mean, they’re not mid-tier, they’re all frontier.
我的意思是,他们不是中层,他们都是前沿。
But have, let’s say Opus 5 and Codex- …
但是,比如说 Opus 5 和 Codex——……
and have one check the other’s job.
并让一个人检查另一个人的工作。
This is my standard operating procedure now.
这是我现在的标准操作流程。
I’ll have a Opus or Fable do the work, and then I always end it, review with Codex xHigh.
我会让 Opus 或 Fable 来做这项工作,然后我总是结束它,用 Codex xHigh 进行审查。
2:38:47 And I’ve also started using Grok just to test it out, and it’s also quite good.
我也开始使用 Grok 来测试一下,它也相当不错。
And it keeps finding stuff.
而且它不断地寻找东西。
And then that’s my workflow when I’m having my agents on my own machine do it, and then I push to GitHub.
这就是我的工作流程,我让我的代理在我自己的机器上执行此操作,然后我推送到 GitHub。
And then Copilot, I kid you not, has actually gotten good.
然后副驾驶,我没骗你,实际上已经变得很好了。
Copilot keeps finding stuff that’s legitimately broken, which is also incredible acceleration because the first version of Copilot that started doing this was literally retarded.
Copilot 不断发现合理损坏的东西,这也是令人难以置信的加速,因为开始这样做的第一个版本的 Copilot 实际上是迟缓的。
It would just constantly flag things that were nonsense.
它只是不断地标记那些无意义的事情。
It would constantly flag the same problem over and over again as you would push.
当您推送时,它会不断地一遍又一遍地标记相同的问题。
It was really annoying, so I think a lot of people actually ended up turning that off.
这真的很烦人,所以我想很多人最终都把它关掉了。
And if they did, they should turn it back on because it’s actually quite good.
如果他们这样做了,他们应该重新打开它,因为它实际上非常好。
2:39:24 Keeps finding things.
不断寻找东西。
And if you then take that, and we shouldn’t be surprised.
如果你接受了这一点,我们不应该感到惊讶。
Why are we surprised?
为什么我们感到惊讶?
Even if you’re a good programmer, if you finish a job and you ask your also very good peer to review it, you’re gonna end up with better code.
即使你是一名优秀的程序员,如果你完成了一项工作并请你也非常优秀的同事对其进行审查,你最终会得到更好的代码。
Of course you’re gonna end up with better code.
当然,您最终会得到更好的代码。
So build that into your process.
因此,请将其构建到您的流程中。
Pick one of the agents to drive with.
选择一名代理人一起开车。
I’ve mainly been driving with Claude, which is actually interesting because I have some other reservations about Anthropic.
我主要是和克劳德一起开车,这实际上很有趣,因为我对人类还有一些其他保留。
But the reason I’m sticking with Claude is, in my opinion, they actually have the best harness.
但我坚持选择克劳德的原因是,在我看来,他们实际上拥有最好的安全带。
And one of the reasons it’s the best harness is it’s multi-agent running.
它是最好的工具的原因之一是它的多代理运行。
So if you wanna run multiple agents at the same time, you can do arrow left when you’re inside a session, then it goes back to Agent View.
因此,如果您想同时运行多个代理,您可以在会话中按向左箭头,然后返回到代理视图。
2:40:06 And here in Agent View, you can pick up another agent.
在特工视图中,您可以选择另一个特工。
So if you wanna do this thing where you have multiple threads going on- …
所以,如果你想做这件事,你有多个线程正在进行-......
Claude Code is just the nicest setup.
克劳德·代码只是最好的设置。
They also just, they keep being a little further ahead, which probably shouldn’t be surprising.
他们也只是继续领先一点,这可能并不奇怪。
I mean, Boris, one of the guys that’s working on that, he was the first one and basically came up with the thing.
我的意思是,鲍里斯(Boris)是正在研究这个问题的人之一,他是第一个提出这个问题的人。
It’s just interesting that that has been an enduring advantage.
有趣的是,这是一个持久的优势。
I’ve also used OpenCode a lot.
我也经常使用 OpenCode。
I think OpenCode is great.
我认为 OpenCode 很棒。
I use OpenCode mainly as my main harness for all the open models, so Kimi K3 and so forth.
我主要使用 OpenCode 作为所有开放模型的主要工具,例如 Kimi K3 等。
And I inference not on the Chinese servers.
我推断不在中国服务器上。
So I inference on Fireworks-
所以我推断Fireworks-
2:40:43 …
……
which is a really nice service where you can just pay by the token, and if you’re using these open weight models, they’re not that expensive by token.
这是一项非常好的服务,您可以通过代币支付,如果您使用这些开放权重模型,那么它们的代币价格并不昂贵。
So that’s a great way to do that.
所以这是一个很好的方法。
But I don’t think I would be using…
但我不认为我会使用...
Well, maybe I would.
好吧,也许我会的。
But if…
但如果……
Using Claude with a subscription does feel like a bargain, like a crazy bargain.
使用克劳德订阅确实感觉很划算,就像一个疯狂的划算。
Yeah, I knew.
是的,我知道。
2:41:03 And I actually have four.
我实际上有四个。
I just signed up for my second one this morning- …
我今天早上刚刚报名了第二个——……
2:41:06 because I got up at 4:00 with jet lag, and I started working with the agents right away, and now I’m three days away from limits resetting on Fable, and I ran out of tokens.
因为我因时差而在 4:00 起床,我立即开始与特工合作,现在距离《神鬼寓言》重置限制还有三天,我的代币用完了。
So, and they should really-
所以,他们真的应该——
I mean, I don’t…
我的意思是,我不……
2:41:22 Why is that so complicated?
为什么这么复杂?
Can’t you just stack one subscription?
不能只叠加一个订阅吗?
Why do I need to log in multiple times?
为什么我需要多次登录?
And obviously you’ll have to develop some kind of tooling-
显然你必须开发某种工具 -
Yes, I did that too.
是的,我也这么做了。
…
……
2:41:31 to move from one- …
从一移动到…
to the other.
到另一个。
And then-
然后——
Oh, we’re building that into Omarchy, by the way.
哦,顺便说一下,我们正在将其构建到 Omarchy 中。
2:41:33 So the next version of Omarchy is gonna ship with multi-sub support.
因此,Omarchy 的下一版本将提供多子支持。
I wish that the labs would just make you buy a max 100 times.
我希望实验室能让你最多购买 100 次。
It’s kind of actually fascinating though for me because there’s…
这对我来说实际上很有趣,因为有……
2:41:43 It’s very challenging for me to use Grok 4.6 and then a Claude Code because Grok is so fast.
使用 Grok 4.6 然后使用 Claude Code 对我来说非常具有挑战性,因为 Grok 太快了。
Yes.
是的。
2:41:57 That’s actually the deal.
这实际上是交易。
The deal with Grok is that their fast mode is cheaper than the regular mode on the others.
与 Grok 的交易是,他们的快速模式比其他模式的常规模式便宜。
And when you’ve used Grok 4.6 on fast, it’s kind of addictive ’cause it almost gets you to this single thread mode- …
当你快速使用 Grok 4.6 时,它会让人上瘾,因为它几乎让你进入这种单线程模式 - ...
where the agent is able to keep up with you.
代理能够跟上您的情况。
Yeah, but I don’t know how…
是啊,但我不知道怎么办……
2:42:14 I can’t…
我不能……
Once I get used to Claude Code I can’t handle the speed of Grok ’cause I’m used to now multitasking.
一旦我习惯了 Claude Code,我就无法应对 Grok 的速度,因为我现在已经习惯了多任务处理。
Correct.
正确的。
And so now I’m back in this-
所以现在我又回到了这个——
Yes.
是的。
…
……
2:42:26 anxious mode of, switching.
焦虑模式的切换。
Yeah.
是的。
2:42:27 No, I agree.
不,我同意。
…
……
switching.
切换。
So I mean, all of this is a learning process of what programming actually is supposed to look like.
所以我的意思是,所有这一切都是一个学习编程实际上应该是什么样子的过程。
By the way, one of the reasons why I’m not sure what the final form of these harnesses is gonna take, because one of the things we’ve started experimenting with at Basecamp is that we put the agents inside of Basecamp, and we treat them as coworkers.
顺便说一句,我不确定这些安全带的最终形式会是什么样的原因之一,因为我们在 Basecamp 开始试验的事情之一是,我们将代理放在 Basecamp 内,并将他们视为同事。
Yeah.
是的。
2:42:45 That’s awesome.
太棒了。
And then we assign them tasks-
然后我们给他们分配任务——
That’s awesome.
太棒了。
…
……
2:42:47 inside of Basecamp, so they will do work on a to-do in Basecamp, or they’ll work, do work on a card.
在 Basecamp 内部,所以他们会在 Basecamp 中完成待办事项,或者他们会在卡片上完成工作。
And it turns out that a collaboration tool that’s optimized for asynchronous communication is actually the right format versus these harnesses are a little more like chat.
事实证明,针对异步通信进行优化的协作工具实际上是正确的格式,而这些工具更像是聊天。
And chat, which was, I mean, the original format for these things, is not the right thing because you’re sitting around waiting.
我的意思是,聊天是这些事情的原始格式,但它并不是正确的事情,因为你只是坐在那儿等待。
It entices you to sit around and wait, versus when you’re dealing with something like Basecamp and you can just give an agent a to-do item, you don’t expect to hear back immediately.
它会吸引你坐下来等待,而当你处理像 Basecamp 这样的事情时,你可以只给代理一个待办事项,你不会指望立即收到回复。
So I don’t know what the final form is gonna take, but I’ve been using all of the harnesses.
所以我不知道最终的形式会是什么样,但我已经使用了所有的安全带。
So I use them inside of Herdr, and Herdr has panes.
所以我在 Herdr 内部使用它们,而 Herdr 有窗格。
2:43:27 So oftentimes I’ll run Claude up top, and then I’ll run Codex down below, and then maybe I also have an OpenCode set up.
所以我经常会在上面运行 Claude,然后在下面运行 Codex,然后也许我还会设置一个 OpenCode。
But I will say just very recently, I found that the human in the loop is the limit here.
但我要说的是,就在最近,我发现循环中的人是这里的极限。
So I’ve started setting up more automated systems.
所以我开始建立更自动化的系统。
I’ve been building an Oma bot that can do more autonomous development on Omarchy that is just on a regular schedule process, all depending to do or PRs and issues, and then send me an email using the HEY CLI, and then I just get this email.
我一直在构建一个 Oma 机器人,它可以在 Omarchy 上进行更多自主开发,这只是按照定期的计划流程进行,一切都取决于要做的事情或 PR 和问题,然后使用 HEY CLI 向我发送电子邮件,然后我就收到了这封电子邮件。
Here’s 12 PRs that are either ready to go or I think you should close.
这里有 12 个 PR,要么已经准备好,要么我认为你应该关闭。
And then I just make the final determination there.
然后我就在那里做出最后的决定。
Do you find the multitasks, the task-switching mentally exhausting?
您是否觉得多任务、任务切换让人精神疲惫?
Yes, but in an exhilarating way.
是的,但是是以一种令人兴奋的方式。
2:44:10 Like, one of the things I always loved about race cars was when I would stumble out of the car absolutely smashed and barely able to hold my head up, and I’d lay down on the garage floor and just think, “Holy fuck, I’m alive.” That’s the kind of exhaustion, mental exhaustion I’m feeling at moments with the agents right now.
就像,我一直喜欢赛车的一件事是,当我从车里跌跌撞撞地走出来时,我的头完全被撞坏了,几乎无法抬起头,然后我躺在车库的地板上,心想:“天哪,我还活着。”这就是我现在和特工在一起时感受到的那种疲惫、精神上的疲惫。
By the way, when you’re racing, where, what’s the source of the exhaustion?
顺便问一下,当你比赛时,哪里、什么地方会感到疲惫?
2:44:31 Like-
就像-
It’s physical.
这是物理的。
2:44:34 It’s just…
这只是……
I mean, I bet it’s the same thing with jujitsu, right?
我的意思是,我打赌柔术也是一样的,对吧?
Like, it’s actually satisfying to feel exhausted.
就像,感到疲惫实际上是令人满意的。
It feels like you’ve applied yourself.
感觉就像你自己申请了一样。
And I feel that with the mental exhaustion you can get from agents.
我觉得经纪人会让你精神疲惫。
Are you also mentally drained from racing?
你是否也因赛车而精神疲惫?
Yes.
是的。
2:44:49 If you drive in difficult conditions, especially if you drive in the rain, where you’re constantly managing the thing right at the knife’s edge.
如果您在困难的条件下驾驶,尤其是在雨中驾驶,您会不断地在刀刃上管理事物。
But most of the time, I just enjoyed the physical exhaustion.
但大多数时候,我只是享受身体的疲惫。
And here, with the multitask switching, I do find that, like, I get really exhausted, and I think it’s because I’m thinking a lot.
在这里,随着多任务切换,我确实发现,我真的很累,我想这是因为我想了很多。
2:45:01 ‘Cause, like, you’re basically-
因为,就像,你基本上是——
That’s exactly it.
就是这样。
…there’s no, like passive low energy thinking.
……不存在,比如被动的低能量思维。
No.
不。
You’re like-
你就像——
There’s no coasting
没有滑行
…
……
2:45:19 problem.
问题。
There’s no coasting.
没有滑行。
Solve problem, next problem, solve problem, and you’re really thinking.
解决问题,下一个问题,解决问题,然后你就会真正思考。
It’s funny.
这很有趣。
2:45:25 It’s actually very similar with racing.
这实际上与赛车非常相似。
There’s some tracks, like Le Mans, where you get time to relax.
有一些赛道,例如勒芒,您可以在那里放松身心。
There’s the Mulsanne straights where it’s kinda long.
穆尔桑直道有点长。
You’re going fast, but in a straight line, you can take a breath.
你走得很快,但在直线上,你可以喘口气。
And then there are other tracks where it’s just coming full on all the time, and you don’t have any moment to relax, and you stumble out of the car after an hour in each, and it’s very different how exhausted you are.
还有其他赛道,它一直都是满员,你没有任何时间放松,每一个小时后你跌跌撞撞地从车里下来,你的疲惫程度是非常不同的。
And this is exactly what I’m finding with the agents too, that when you’re running at max human capacity- …
这也正是我在特工身上发现的,当你以最大人力运行时——……
you’re just constantly in a corner.
你只是一直处于角落里。
Do you think people are in danger of burnout?
您认为人们有倦怠的危险吗?
I think the moment we’re in right now is gonna pass.
我认为我们现在所处的时刻将会过去。
2:46:01 That this need to…
这需要...
It’s not a babysitting motion, but constant interaction with the agents is gonna fade.
这不是一种照顾孩子的行为,但与特工的持续互动将会消失。
I’m, from what I’ve seen on Omarchy, I think we can automate a ton of the development and debugging of the system- …
从我在 Omarchy 上看到的情况来看,我认为我们可以自动化系统的大量开发和调试——……
to the point where I can just review that email once a day, and then make the decisions once a day.
以至于我每天可以查看一次该电子邮件,然后每天一次做出决定。
Yep, goes, no, goes, in, out, and whatever.
是的,去,不,去,进,出,等等。
We’re not there yet, but I think we’re gonna get there.
我们还没有到达那里,但我想我们会到达那里。
Well, can you sort of, like, empathize with the feeling that, say, a young person sitting in San Francisco, everybody around them is not sleeping.
好吧,你能有点同情这样的感觉吗,比如说,一个年轻人坐在旧金山,周围的每个人都没有睡觉。
2:46:36 They’re obsessed.
他们很着迷。
They’re programming nonstop.
他们不停地编程。
And there’s this kinda sense that AGI is gonna be here any minute.
有一种感觉 AGI 随时都会出现。
There’s, everybody knows somebody who’s made millions of dollars because they sold a startup.
每个人都知道有人因出售一家初创公司而赚了数百万美元。
And so there’s a kinda feeling like you shouldn’t be sleeping.
所以有一种感觉你不应该睡觉。
You should be constantly managing agents and programming and building, and that feels like a moment in time we’ll look back at.
你应该不断地管理代理、编程和构建,这感觉就像我们会回顾的一个时刻。
It’s the birth of a new paradigm.
这是一个新范式的诞生。
2:47:14 It’s always messy.
总是很乱。
It’s always messy.
总是很乱。
It’s always exhausting.
总是很累。
2:47:17 There’s no other way around that.
没有其他办法解决这个问题。
And by the way, hasn’t San Francisco always been like this?
顺便说一句,旧金山不一直都是这样吗?
I remember the dotcom boom years, and everyone was just the same, and then it was all mobile, and before that it was the gold rush.
我记得互联网繁荣时期,每个人都一样,然后都是移动的,在此之前是淘金热。
So I think that’s probably- …
所以我认为这可能是——……
just San Francisco.
只是旧金山。
It attracts- …
它吸引了——……
the kind of individuals-
什么样的人——
The dreamers.
梦想家们。
…
……
2:47:34 who would think, “I don’t have time to sleep.” I’ve not been on that track, generally speaking, but I will admit that the last three months have felt more exhausting than any other project I’ve done in the last five years, since the Hey launch.
谁会想:“我没有时间睡觉。”一般来说,我并没有走上这条路,但我承认,自 Hey 推出以来,过去三个月比我过去五年里做过的任何其他项目都更让人疲惫不堪。
That was the last time we had a crazy exhausting launch.
那是我们最后一次进行疯狂而疲惫的发射。
Do you think you can keep going at this pace?
你认为你能继续按照这个速度前进吗?
No, no, no, no, no.
不,不,不,不,不。
2:47:57 This is not sustainable at all.
这根本不可持续。
Okay.
好的。
But I also, I can see the end of the tunnel.
但我也能看到隧道的尽头。
2:48:02 Because the automation, which by the way, everyone is building.
因为自动化,顺便说一句,每个人都在建设。
This is so hilarious.
这太搞笑了。
Like, everyone is building their little gas town, their little agent coordination, their setup.
就像,每个人都在建造他们的小天然气小镇,他们的小代理协调,他们的设置。
This is all gonna be solved.
这一切都会解决的
We’re not all gonna have to build our own coordination harnesses.
我们不必都建立自己的协调安全带。
Of course we’re not.
当然我们不是。
And in fact, I’m a little surprised that it’s gone this long, that there’s not more of it has been sucked up by the major labs.
事实上,我有点惊讶它已经过去了这么久,没有更多的东西被主要实验室吸收。
You’d think that they’d just built this stuff in.
你可能会认为他们刚刚内置了这些东西。
But some of it is also this is what a new domain looks like.
但其中一些也是新域名的样子。
I remember for a hot moment when JavaScript kind of came to realize its own power, and there was basically a new JavaScript framework every five minutes, right?
我记得有一个很热门的时刻,当时 JavaScript 开始意识到自己的力量,基本上每五分钟就有一个新的 JavaScript 框架,对吧?
Like, a lot of churn.
就像,很多流失。
This is what happens at the advent of a new paradigm.
这就是新范式出现时所发生的情况。
2:48:41 So I think it’s natural, and I think it’s gonna settle down, and I can already see the light at the end of the tunnel.
所以我认为这是自然的,我认为它会安定下来,我已经可以看到隧道尽头的曙光。
So I don’t mind a sprint.
所以我不介意冲刺。
In fact, I welcome it now.
事实上,我现在很欢迎。
I like this notion that most time is calm, but then occasionally you gotta climb a mountain.
我喜欢这样的观念:大部分时间都是平静的,但有时你必须爬山。
If we look back to the DHH a year ago, what advice would you give to that guy?
如果我们回顾一年前的 DHH,您会给那个人什么建议?
I wouldn’t wanna spoil it.
我不想破坏它。
Okay.
好的。
What a thriller that this has been.
这真是一部惊悚片。
2:49:04 I mean, if you would’ve scripted this, I’d be like, “This is so far-fetched.
我的意思是,如果你要编写这个脚本,我会说,“这太牵强了。
Get out of here.
离开这里。
Unbelievable,” right?
难以置信,”对吧?
I wouldn’t wanna know anything.
我什么都不想知道。
The fact that this rollercoaster and this acceleration has been absorbed in real time by everyone, no one knew, right?
这种过山车、这种加速度已经被大家实时吸收了,没有人知道吧?
Like, some had premonitions that were a little better than others, but no one knew, not exactly the way- …
比如,有些人的预感比其他人要好一点,但没有人知道,也不完全是这样——……
it was gonna go and how fast it was gonna take off.
它会走,它会以多快的速度起飞。
I mean, it’s, it’s the show of a lifetime.
我的意思是,这是一生难忘的演出。
I mean, the meme cinema- …
我的意思是,模因电影院——……
absolutely applies-
绝对适用——
Yeah, it’s incredible.
是的,这太不可思议了。
…
……
2:49:42 to this moment.
到这一刻。
That said, what do you think DHH from a year from now will be like?
也就是说,您认为一年后的 DHH 会是什么样子?
2:49:43 I mean, what are the possible versions?
我的意思是,可能的版本是什么?
That all our dreams are coming true.
我们所有的梦想都将实现。
2:49:52 Like, this is the AI maximalist abundance argument.
就像,这就是人工智能最大化丰度论。
That once Elon’s robots have the level of intelligence and AGI that I’m experiencing on some of this development stuff, the world is gonna be so unrecognizably different that we can’t even imagine it.
一旦埃隆的机器人达到了我在一些开发产品上所体验到的智能和通用人工智能水平,世界将会变得如此难以辨认,以至于我们甚至无法想象。
Now, I don’t spend any time thinking about that because I think that is the way to the AI psychosis.
现在,我不会花任何时间思考这个问题,因为我认为这就是通往人工智能精神病的道路。
So therefore, I just immerse myself in the moment and get absolutely the maximum out of it, and-
因此,我只是沉浸在这一刻,并充分利用它,并且-
Just have fun.
玩得开心就好。
Just have fun.
玩得开心就好。
2:50:30 I mean, I get it why people are finding this exhausting.
我的意思是,我明白为什么人们觉得这很累。
Just keeping up.
只要跟上。
Not even using agents, just, like, being like, “What’s the latest model?
甚至不使用代理,只是说,“最新型号是什么?
What tool are we using now?
我们现在使用什么工具?
Is it TMox?
是TMox吗?
Is it a Herder?
是牧民吗?
Is it none of it?
难道都没有吗?
Is it agents?” Whatever.
是特工吗?”任何。
I get it, but I also again think we should be so blessed.
我明白了,但我也再次认为我们应该如此幸运。
You are alive in this moment where decades are happening- …
你还活着,就在这几十年正在发生的时刻——……
in weeks.
几周后。
Quick bathroom break.
快速上厕所。
2:50:57 I’ve been generating a lot of video recently with Higgsfield, and so they became a sponsor.
我最近和 Higgsfield 一起制作了很多视频,所以他们成为了赞助商。
Created a racing video.
制作了赛车视频。
Wanted to get your opinion on it.
想听听您对此的看法。
Oh, yeah?
哦,是吗?
2:51:06 Oh, let me see.
哦,让我看看。
Let me see.
让我看看。
To see-
来看看——
If they downshift on a straight like they do in the movies, I’ll call it out.
如果他们像电影中那样在直道上降档,我会大声喊出来。
2:51:10 That is the worst.
那是最糟糕的。
Let me see.
让我看看。
Yeah, see if-
是的,看看是否——
Oh, that’s a real clip
噢,这是一个真实的剪辑
…
……
2:51:19 this is fully AI generated.
这是完全由人工智能生成的。
So first it goes-
所以首先是——
Wait, what?
等等,什么?
2:51:21 This is AI?
这就是人工智能?
Shit, that’s my suit.
妈的,那是我的衣服。
That’s my car.
那是我的车。
Lights go green on a street that never sleeps.
不眠街道上的灯变绿了。
Oh, my God.
我的天啊。
Do an audio-
做一个音频——
Are you kidding me?
你在开玩笑吗?
But they never came.
但他们从未来过。
2:51:39 Is it good?
好不好?
I got a bad case.
我遇到了一个不好的案例。
I mean, it’s crazy.
我的意思是,这太疯狂了。
2:51:44 You really have to notice in the…
你真的必须注意到……
Like, that car didn’t have headlights on and the other one did.
就像,那辆车没有车头灯,而另一辆车却开了。
And that looked like a 60-year-old version of me.
那看起来就像是60岁的我。
But holy crap, the…
但天哪,这……
Wow, that was crazy.
哇,太疯狂了。
So there’s parallels here to programming because if you do just straight video generation with no human in the loop- …
因此,这里与编程有相似之处,因为如果你只是直接生成视频而没有人在循环中——……
2:52:03 you get a lot of weird artifacts- …
你会得到很多奇怪的文物——……
and so on, and you can’t really do…
等等,而你真的做不到……
So they do and I highly recommend people go to the Higgsfield YouTube.
他们确实这样做了,我强烈建议人们去 Higgsfield YouTube。
They have full 90-minute original movies.
他们有完整的 90 分钟原创电影。
Wow.
哇。
And, like, I can’t look away.
而且,就像,我无法把目光移开。
2:52:22 It’s really cool.
真的很酷。
‘Cause it used to be that it’s just, like, something that just feels like trailers.
因为它曾经只是感觉像预告片的东西。
Like advertisements for something.
就像某些东西的广告一样。
Yes, yes.
是的,是的。
This is actually telling stories, like, people’s faces and they’re talking and you’re like, you’re drawn in.
这实际上是在讲故事,比如,人们的脸,他们在说话,你就会被吸引进去。
2:52:32 It’s not quite where programming is.
这不完全是编程的地方。
And so the question is how do you integrate the human into the loop of the filmmaking process?
所以问题是如何将人类融入到电影制作过程的循环中?
So you have to create the people, and they’re- …
所以你必须创造人,他们是……
they have to be kept consistent.
它们必须保持一致。
And then for the images that are kinda like feeding the thing in the creation process, you have to correct through prompting things that don’t feel right.
然后对于那些有点像在创作过程中喂养东西的图像,你必须通过提示那些感觉不对的东西来纠正。
Because when you go from image to video, the stuff that doesn’t feel right will be-
因为当你从图像转向视频时,感觉不对的东西会是——
It’s gonna be zoomed up, right?
它会被放大,对吗?
That’s the stuff that’s- …
那就是——……
2:53:12 going to really create- …
将真正创造——……
the non-realistic stuff.
不切实际的东西。
The question I had for you is, like, do you think outside of programming, can you apply lessons from programming to video creation, to art?
我问你的问题是,你认为除了编程之外,你能否将编程中的经验应用到视频创作和艺术中?
It’s a good question because I think good art is very dependent on the same thing that good software is depending on: having a vision, having a cohesive idea of what you wanna create.
这是一个很好的问题,因为我认为好的艺术与好的软件所依赖的东西是一样的:有一个愿景,对你想要创造的东西有一个有凝聚力的想法。
2:53:27 How is it different?
有什么不同?
How is it novel?
怎么样才算新颖呢?
How is it going to appeal to people?
它将如何吸引人们?
But I’m not sure that the creative instincts transfer quite as well.
但我不确定创造力的本能是否也会转移。
I don’t know that I would have the creative insights to come up with good video prompts that would create compelling content.
我不知道我是否有创造性的见解来提出好的视频提示来创建引人注目的内容。
But it’s funny because I have actually, on TikTok, there’s this guy, I’m trying to remember, Goblin something.
但这很有趣,因为实际上,在 TikTok 上,有一个人,我正在努力记住,哥布林之类的东西。
That creates these…
这创造了这些……
They are shorts, but not super short, maybe a couple minutes, of really interesting sci-fi vignettes.
它们是短片,但不是超短,可能只有几分钟,包含非常有趣的科幻小插曲。
And I think the guy is actually working on a feature length video right now.
我认为这个人现在实际上正在制作一个长视频。
2:54:20 And I think that this is one of those abundance moments.
我认为这是那些丰富的时刻之一。
There are creative people with that vision all over the place, especially in a genre like film, where before it required a $200 million budget to create, I don’t know, a sci-fi movie.
世界各地都有具有这种愿景的创意人士,尤其是在电影这样的类型领域,我不知道,在此之前,制作一部科幻电影需要 2 亿美元的预算。
Now suddenly, with AI, if you have the right vision for it, you can do that in your bedroom.
现在突然之间,有了人工智能,如果你有正确的愿景,你就可以在你的卧室里做到这一点。
Now, that story’s been told quite a few times in other domains.
现在,这个故事在其他领域已经被讲述过很多次了。
It used to be true that if you wanted to record a studio album, well, you needed a studio, and you needed to book that.
过去,如果你想录制一张录音室专辑,那么你需要一个录音室,并且需要预订。
And now you can record at home on your laptop, and you can do a lot of these things, right?
现在您可以在家里用笔记本电脑进行录音,并且可以做很多这样的事情,对吧?
So we’ve had this democratization process happen with plenty of other domains, but film seems to be one of the last ones.
因此,我们在许多其他领域都发生了这种民主化进程,但电影似乎是最后的领域之一。
And it’s the one that makes, like, me and a lot of people feel weird, right?
这让我和很多人都感到奇怪,对吧?
2:55:04 Like-
就像-
Oh, I’m super excited ’cause I think it’s-
哦,我非常兴奋,因为我认为这是-
I mean, you-
我的意思是,你——
There’s so much garbage being produced right now.
现在产生的垃圾太多了。
2:55:13 It’s the same argument with the slop, right?
这和污水的争论是一样的,对吧?
So people for a second were worried about slop in programming, and I was telling them, like, “Have you seen the human slop?
所以人们有一瞬间担心编程中的错误,我告诉他们,“你见过人类的错误吗?
It’s also pretty bad.” And I think if it comes to studio entertainment, I mean, the bar is pretty low, right?
这也很糟糕。”我认为,如果谈到演播室娱乐,我的意思是,门槛相当低,对吧?
Like, the number of great movies I’ve been dying to see over the past, say, five years, not been a particularly high number.
就像,过去五年里,我一直渴望看到的好电影的数量并不是特别多。
Yeah, the video models are just, they’re able to create incredibly realistic facial expressions.
是的,视频模型就是,他们能够创造出极其逼真的面部表情。
Yes.
是的。
I mean, I- it just might change the nature of film.
我的意思是,我-它可能会改变电影的本质。
2:55:51 I think they’re m- I m- I guess my hope would be that video games and film kind of merge, and that film can become interactive.
我想他们是——我是——我想我的希望是视频游戏和电影能够融合,而电影可以变得互动。
Like the malleable operating system, having the malleable narrative, having malleable entertainment, that man, Game of Thrones, what if we could just forget the last four episodes of slop that was produced-
就像可塑的操作系统,有可塑的叙事,有可塑的娱乐,那个男人,权力的游戏,如果我们能忘记制作的最后四集废话会怎样——
We were sure
我们确信
…
……
2:56:21 and then AI- …
然后人工智能-...
comes up with- …
提出-...
I don’t know- …
我不知道——……
maybe 100 different variations, and someone else watches that, and I get the version that actually finishes off that show in a way that’s fitting.
也许有 100 种不同的变体,其他人看了,我得到的版本实际上以一种合适的方式结束了这部剧。
Yeah.
是的。
2:56:34 Something tells me an individual creator would not create those la- would, would create a different ending for Game of Thrones.
有件事告诉我,个人创作者不会创造这些,他会为《权力的游戏》创造一个不同的结局。
Oh, for sure.
哦,当然。
2:56:40 Right?
正确的?
And more just to make the argument that talk about human slop.
而更多只是为了提出谈论人类污点的论点。
That was an absolute atrocious ending to perhaps one of the greatest pieces of movie history, I was about to say, but series history, right?
我正要说,这对也许是电影史上最伟大的作品之一来说,绝对是一个残酷的结局,但系列历史,对吧?
It was so good, and it was actually a compelling argument for the fact that you need that strong vision.
它太棒了,而且它实际上是一个令人信服的论据,说明你需要那种强烈的愿景。
And as soon as those showrunners had to go without a script, it went off the rails.
当那些制作人不得不在没有剧本的情况下进行拍摄时,节目就脱轨了。
Do you think…
你认为……
2:57:10 You’ve mentioned AGI.
你提到了 AGI。
Do you think we’ve actually achieved AGI?
你认为我们真的实现了通用人工智能吗?
No, not in the general definition that it’s in all the things.
不,不是在所有事物中都存在的一般定义中。
2:57:14 But have I seen AGI in these glimmers?
但我在这些微光中看到过通用人工智能吗?
Absolutely.
绝对地。
Especially over the last three months, I’ve seen things where I was thinking to myself, like, “How would AGI look different from this?”
特别是在过去的三个月里,我看到了一些让我自己思考的事情,比如“AGI 看起来会有何不同?”
Right.
正确的。
What, what more could there be?
什么,还能有什么?
2:57:34 And I mean, I can quibble at the margins, but on the big picture, I’ve seen it able to do these long run tasks and coordinate these multiple aspects of it that we’re so far beyond that early moment where I’m telling it, “Go do this, package that.” And now it can carry out a whole task from these vague instruction.
我的意思是,我可以在边缘争论,但从大局来看,我已经看到它能够完成这些长期任务并协调它的多个方面,以至于我们远远超出了我告诉它“去做这个,打包那个”的早期时刻。现在它可以根据这些模糊的指令执行整个任务。
That feels very AGI-like, and that’s what’s so inspiring about the moment because you catch these glimmers.
这感觉非常像 AGI,这就是那一刻如此鼓舞人心的地方,因为你捕捉到了这些闪光。
And then you go, “What if everything was like that?”
然后你会想:“如果一切都是那样呢?”
Doesn’t programming basically unlock the everything?
难道编程基本上不能解锁一切吗?
2:58:12 So you can write a pro- like it can generate the program that does the everything.
因此,您可以编写一个专业程序,就像它可以生成执行所有操作的程序一样。
So, this is…
所以,这是……
2:58:20 I’m in that meta phase right now.
我现在正处于那个元阶段。
So I’m building this Amabot system that’s managing the development of Omarchy, and I’m using AI to build the bot.
所以我正在构建这个 Amabot 系统来管理 Omarchy 的开发,并且我正在使用人工智能来构建机器人。
And I’m seeing that recurrent loop where I started it on, like, “This is what I want.
我看到了我开始的循环,就像,“这就是我想要的。
I want you to be able to have these isolated VM workers and so forth,” and then it can do the self iteration.
我希望你能够拥有这些独立的虚拟机工作人员等等,”然后它就可以进行自我迭代。
Then it starts running it.
然后它开始运行它。
It starts noticing its failures.
它开始注意到自己的失败。
It starts optimizing it.
它开始优化它。
And a lot of that system, Amabot in particular, AI has driven the majority of the design decisions.
在很多系统中,尤其是 Amabot,人工智能驱动了大部分设计决策。
Like, I had some vague ideas of where I wanted.
就像,我对自己想要的地方有一些模糊的想法。
I wanted to use this brains and hands pattern where the model is running from where the code is executing-
我想使用这种大脑和手模式,模型从代码执行的地方运行 -
2:59:00 …
……
which is actually a really interesting pattern.
这实际上是一个非常有趣的模式。
Again, Toby alerted me to that, where you have a coordinator that runs the model- …
托比再次提醒我,你有一个协调员来运行模型 - ......
but it’s manipulating a safe VM where any untrusted code you’re pulling down from pull requests or issues or whatever can’t contaminate the model.
但它正在操纵一个安全的虚拟机,您从拉取请求或问题或任何其他内容中拉取的任何不受信任的代码都不会污染模型。
And even in that loop, I keep seeing it catch itself, spotting vulnerabilities, where it’s like, “Oh, I actually just took some feedback from a test run.
即使在这个循环中,我仍然看到它陷入困境,发现漏洞,就像,“哦,我实际上只是从测试运行中获取了一些反馈。
If a clever attacker had embedded a malicious payload in the response of the test run, that could have polluted something.
如果聪明的攻击者在测试运行的响应中嵌入了恶意负载,则可能会污染某些内容。
I took it for good thing.
我认为这是好事。
I better start treating that as outside data.” And you just go like, it is just…
我最好开始将其视为外部数据。”你就这样走,这只是……
I get why San Francisco is so obsessed with fast takeoff- …
我明白为什么旧金山如此痴迷于快速起飞——……
because clearly they’ve seen this 100 times- …
因为显然他们已经看过这个 100 次了——……
more.
更多。
2:59:56 They’ve seen it with all the models that are in- …
他们已经在所有模型中看到了这一点——……
training now, and we keep getting these little glimpses, like the security breach with Hugging Face, where OpenAI was training this model, and the model starts inventing ways, essentially sending smoke signals to itself through embedding messages in a package manager, where you just go like, first, that’s damn clever.
现在正在训练,我们不断看到这些小一瞥,比如 Hugging Face 的安全漏洞,OpenAI 正在训练这个模型,模型开始发明方法,本质上是通过在包管理器中嵌入消息向自身发送烟雾信号,你会觉得,首先,这太聪明了。
Second, okay, that’s also a little scary.
其次,好吧,这也有点可怕。
And third, how amazing would this be if we could harness this level of intelligence- …
第三,如果我们能够利用这种水平的智能,那将是多么令人惊奇——……
and ingenuity towards productive ends?
以及为实现生产目的而发挥的独创性?
So this is the it’s so over, we’re so back pendulum that keeps swinging back and forth-
所以这一切都结束了,我们已经回到了不断来回摆动的钟摆——
3:00:39 …
……
that AI has just delivered that swing back and forth like nothing else.
人工智能刚刚以前所未有的方式来回摆动。
Like barely a, a week goes by where it has to swing one way, and then the next week it swings back the other way.
就好像一周一样,一周过去了,它必须朝一个方向摆动,然后下周它又朝另一个方向摆动。
Exhilarating.
令人振奋。
I’m still at the stage where it makes me truly happy to see those moments of cleverness, and they’re becoming more and more frequent.
我仍然处于这样的阶段:看到那些聪明的时刻让我真正感到高兴,而且它们变得越来越频繁。
3:00:52 Just kinda like seeing, oh, like first of all, at the very basic level, when a model gets it.
有点像看到,哦,首先,在非常基本的层面上,当一个模型得到它时。
I’ll say a basic prompt, you know, a request, and it doesn’t just do a dumb implementation.
我会说一个基本的提示,你知道,一个请求,它不只是做一个愚蠢的实现。
It deeply understands, and it…
它深深地理解了,并且……
That was…
那是……
That’s a, that’s always a beautiful thing.
那是,那总是一件美丽的事情。
It’s almost like having a good, like, partner, like program.
这几乎就像拥有一个良好的、类似的、合作伙伴的、类似的计划。
That’s exactly what it is.
就是这样。
3:01:22 That’s exactly why it’s so exhilarating and why, as we talked about before we started, it can sometimes be difficult to come out of hyperdrive.
这正是它如此令人兴奋的原因,也是为什么,正如我们在开始之前谈到的,有时很难摆脱超光速驱动。
That’s also one of Toby’s terms here.
这也是托比在这里的术语之一。
That when you’re working directly just one-on-one with agents and you’re not looping in other humans, you go so fast, and when the agents are really understanding your intent, or even better, they revise and improve upon your intent to deliver something that was greater than what you asked for.
当你直接与代理进行一对一的工作并且不循环其他人时,你的速度会很快,当代理真正理解你的意图,甚至更好时,他们会修改和改进你的意图,以提供比你要求的更好的东西。
And you’re doing this with 16 parallel threads.
您使用 16 个并行线程来完成此操作。
It can be quite difficult to come out of hyperdrive and have to deal with squishy humans.
从超空间中出来并与软弱的人类打交道可能是相当困难的。
They just, they don’t think as fast.
他们只是,他们的思考速度没那么快。
They don’t move as fast.
他们移动得没那么快。
3:02:08 And I mean, I’m trying mostly to make light of it, but you can also see a dark version of that where someone does end up in an AI psychosis where they’re not interested in other humans at all anymore.
我的意思是,我主要是试图淡化它,但你也可以看到一个黑暗的版本,其中有人最终陷入人工智能精神病,他们对其他人类不再感兴趣。
I mean, certainly don’t have that at all, but I do have this sensation at times where I’m really grateful for just the rush of just me and the agents.
我的意思是,当然根本没有这种感觉,但有时我确实有这种感觉,我真的很感激只有我和特工们的匆忙。
Like, can I just not talk to anyone else but agents- …
就像,除了特工之外,我可以不和其他人说话吗——……
for four hours?
四个小时?
Like, that’s an incredible run.
就像,这是一次令人难以置信的跑步。
Toby is such a fascinating human because he’s running a large company.
托比是一个非常迷人的人,因为他经营着一家大公司。
3:02:38 So I would love to get insights of how AI’s being incorporated effectively in companies.
因此,我很想了解人工智能如何有效地融入公司。
Because, like, for me, humans are pretty slow.
因为,就像对我来说,人类相当缓慢。
And so, and so there’s a temptation to, like, use AI for basically you know, AI running inside Slack, for example, or inside the Basecamp, whatever.
所以,所以有一种诱惑,比如,使用人工智能,基本上你知道,人工智能在 Slack 内部运行,或者在 Basecamp 内部运行,等等。
And, like, collecting all the information about the human interaction, basically handholding the humans to speed up as much as possible.
而且,就像收集有关人类互动的所有信息,基本上是帮助人类尽可能加快速度。
And like, and then at a certain point you’re like, wait, what is this human…
就像,然后在某个时刻你会想,等等,这个人是什么……
What are each of us doing that’s not replaceable by AI?
我们每个人在做什么是人工智能无法替代的?
And that becomes, like, a scary kind of conversation because a lot of work is kind of replaceable.
这就像一种可怕的对话,因为很多工作都是可以替代的。
The irony here is it already was.
具有讽刺意味的是,它已经是这样了。
3:03:37 So the number of fake email jobs that currently exist in this world is an absolute epidemic.
因此,目前世界上存在的虚假电子邮件工作数量绝对是一种流行病。
And-
还有——
3:03:46 …
……
this, by the way, is not a new thesis.
顺便说一句,这并不是一个新论文。
David Graeber wrote this wonderful piece, Bullshit Jobs, back in, I think it was maybe early 2010s.
David Graeber 在 2010 年代初写了这篇精彩的文章《胡扯乔布斯》。
Based on a poll he did in the UK asking people, at that time, would…
根据他在英国进行的一项民意调查,当时询问人们会……
I think the question was something like, “Would it make a difference if you didn’t go to work?” For humanity, for mankind.
我认为这个问题就像是“如果你不去工作会有什么不同吗?”为了人类,为了人类。
And something like 30-some percent answered, “No, it wouldn’t.” That a third of workers thought that their job was fake, that it did not produce any worthwhile, valuable outcomes, neither for the community or society or maybe even the economy at all.
大约 30% 左右的人回答说:“不,不会。”三分之一的工人认为他们的工作是假的,它没有产生任何有价值的成果,无论是对社区、社会,甚至对经济来说都是如此。
And this was my argument since day one with startups.
从第一天开始,这就是我与初创公司的论点。
This was why we stayed a small company.
这就是为什么我们仍然是一家小公司。
3:04:39 This was why we didn’t want to take VC, because I was so skeptical of the idea that you could get hundreds of programmers, thousands of programmers to do something productive- …
这就是为什么我们不想接受 VC,因为我对你可以让数百名程序员、数千名程序员做一些富有成效的事情的想法非常怀疑——……
as a collective group.
作为一个集体。
3:04:52 And I think what we’re seeing right now with some of the layoffs is a testament to that, not AI.
我认为我们现在看到的一些裁员证明了这一点,而不是人工智能。
It’s just that during the pandemic, a bunch of over-hiring went on, and now AI is a convenient excuse to slim down.
只是疫情期间出现了大量的过度招聘,而现在人工智能成为了一个方便的瘦身借口。
But I do also think AI is going to expose some roles as just not being productive ways for humans to spend their time, and therefore we must come up with new ways of spending their time.
但我也确实认为人工智能将暴露出某些角色对于人类来说并不是一种高效的消磨时间的方式,因此我们必须想出新的消磨时间的方式。
And the one, again, I’m quoting Toby for the third time here, but anecdote that he shared me, or observation was, okay, let’s say we all– we lose half the jobs that are currently happening right now.
再说一次,我在这里第三次引用托比的话,但他和我分享的轶事,或者观察是,好吧,让我们说我们所有人——我们失去了目前正在发生的一半工作。
3:05:34 Do you know that Formula 1 employs literally tens of thousands of people just to run cars around in a circle for spectators?
你知道一级方程式赛车雇佣了数以万计的员工,只是为了让赛车绕一圈供观众观看吗?
Like, that has, that whole circus has no intrinsic value to society besides the spectacle it produces of amusement and entertainment.
就像,整个马戏团除了产生娱乐和娱乐的奇观之外,对社会没有任何内在价值。
We just decided it would be really fun for these, what is it, 12 manufacturers to create these fast cars and constantly tweak their little aero improvements, and we will watch it, and we will spend literally billions of dollars doing it and employ tens of thousands of people towards an ultimately deeply frivolous activity.
我们刚刚决定,这对这些人来说真的很有趣,这是什么,12家制造商制造这些快速汽车并不断调整他们的小空气动力学改进,我们会观看它,我们将花费数十亿美元来做这件事,并雇用数以万计的人来进行最终非常无聊的活动。
3:06:17 So if we are liberated from a bunch of drudgery and fake email jobs, maybe we all get employed as F1 style engineers and drivers and mechanics and masseuses and the other 1,500 jobs that are involved in that, and we come up with new things.
因此,如果我们从一堆苦差事和虚假电子邮件工作中解放出来,也许我们都会成为 F1 风格的工程师、车手、机械师和按摩师,以及其他 1,500 个与此相关的工作,我们会想出新的东西。
I think this is…
我认为这是……
Humans are very poor at imagining what exactly the future’s gonna be like.
人类非常不善于想象未来到底会是什么样子。
Yeah.
是的。
3:06:40 Imagine, imagine a future 100-plus years from now, where we look back at this whole span of history, thousands of years where humans worked.
想象一下,想象一下一百多年后的未来,我们回顾这整个历史时期,人类工作了数千年。
Funny thing is we’re already doing that, right?
有趣的是我们已经在这样做了,对吧?
3:06:52 Like, the number of fake email job people who sit on a chair all day long and type into a machine who don’t have hard physical labor would be unimaginable- …
比如,整天坐在椅子上,在机器上打字的假电子邮件工作人员,如果没有艰苦的体力劳动,数量将是难以想象的——……
to folks in the 1800s, right?
对于 1800 年代的人们来说,对吗?
So the future is always already here, it’s just not evenly distributed.
所以未来总是已经到来,只是分布不均。
Unfortunately, as is always the case, the transformation of society required to go from one step to the other is going to have a lot of suffering.
不幸的是,正如往常一样,社会转型需要从一个步骤到另一个步骤,这将带来很多痛苦。
3:07:11 And potentially political turmoil and all that kind of stuff.
以及潜在的政治动荡和诸如此类的事情。
Because you can imagine how many white collar jobs might be lost in this process.
因为你可以想象在这个过程中可能会失去多少白领工作。
Yes.
是的。
3:07:30 And I don’t think you should make light of that.
我认为你不应该轻视这一点。
I don’t think it’s funny.
我觉得这不好笑。
But I also do think it’s a necessary component of progress.
但我也确实认为这是进步的必要组成部分。
And I think if we look back upon the Luddites or the folks working the fields, separation has a tendency to reduce empathy.
我认为,如果我们回顾勒德分子或在田间工作的人们,分离往往会减少同理心。
So we have high empathy right now because we know people- …
所以我们现在有很高的同理心,因为我们认识人们——……
and we are people who are facing these challenges.
而我们正是面临这些挑战的人。
But what is our empathy for the Luddites of the early 19th century?
但我们对 19 世纪初的勒德分子有何同情心呢?
Would we wish that all garments were still made by hand weaving?
我们是否希望所有的衣服仍然是手工编织的?
No, we wouldn’t.
不,我们不会。
We want the comfort and accessibility and convenience of being able to buy clothing off the rack.
我们希望能够舒适、方便地购买现成的衣服。
So we must suffer in the moment for future generations to live more prosperous.
因此,为了子孙后代过上更加繁荣的生活,我们必须在当下受苦。
I-
我-
And that’s always been true.
这一直都是事实。
…
……
3:08:23 I think that’s actually the trick, is to push for progress but have deep compassion for the people who have to suffer.
我认为这实际上是诀窍,就是推动进步,但对那些遭受苦难的人们怀有深深的同情心。
And that’s many of us.
这就是我们很多人。
To suffer the transformation required to achieve that progress.
经历实现这一进步所需的转变。
And sometimes too often in places like Silicon Valley or so on, you can over-focus on, look, the kind of utilitarian view of things- …
有时,在硅谷等地方,你可能会过度关注、看、那种对事物的功利主义观点——……
and look at the progress.
并看看进展情况。
But, you know, considering deeply each individual human that suffers because of that progress is important.
但是,你知道,深入考虑因这一进步而遭受痛苦的每个人是很重要的。
I do think that suffering becomes more meaningful when you are suffering for a future someone in particular, like your kids.
我确实认为,当你为未来的某个人(特别是你的孩子)受苦时,痛苦就会变得更有意义。
3:09:08 And I think this is one of the great tragedies of the moment, is the falling birth rates are making it more difficult for people to be excited about a more prosperous future that is difficult to get to.
我认为这是当前最大的悲剧之一,出生率的下降使人们更难对难以实现的更繁荣的未来感到兴奋。
Because if we’re planting trees of which our children will not sit in the shade, I don’t know, maybe we should just make some lumber and burn it all down, right?
因为如果我们种植的树木我们的孩子不会坐在树荫下,我不知道,也许我们应该制作一些木材并将其全部烧掉,对吗?
I think there’s a nihilism that can sneak into society much more easily when we are not DNA invested in the future, when we are not liable to our own offspring to propel forward.
我认为,当我们没有为未来投资DNA时,当我们不对自己的后代负责推动前进时,虚无主义就更容易潜入社会。
So I think these are bad trends to merge at the same time, that we have these falling birth rates and these problems with coupling, and the fact that we need to keep our chin up about the future and be…
所以我认为这些都是不好的趋势,需要同时融合,我们面临出生率下降和耦合问题,事实上我们需要对未来保持乐观并......
3:10:11 I mean, you don’t even have to be excited about it in this literal ecstatic sense that I’m portraying here, but I think you should be hopeful, and I think you should be working towards that hope, and I think it’s much easier to do so when you have literal skin in the game.
我的意思是,你甚至不必像我在这里所描绘的那种字面意义上的欣喜若狂,但我认为你应该充满希望,而且我认为你应该朝着这个希望努力,而且我认为当你真正参与到游戏中时,这样做会更容易。
We’ve been talking about AI agents.
我们一直在谈论人工智能代理。
3:10:27 Let’s talk about the human side.
我们来谈谈人性的一面。
What do you love most about being a dad?
作为一名父亲,你最喜欢什么?
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
3:10:36 I think the overall love that expands from humans that derive directly- …
我认为从人类中延伸出来的整体爱直接源自……
from your lineage- …
从你的血统来看——……
is very difficult to communicate because I was actually not a particularly big kids person prior to the arrival of my own.
沟通起来非常困难,因为在我自己到来之前,我实际上并不是一个特别大的孩子。
And now they are the most interesting people in the world.
现在他们是世界上最有趣的人。
A lot of the time.
很多时候。
Not always.
并非总是如此。
Sometimes they’re also just assholes and so forth.
有时他们也只是混蛋等等。
But there’s been such a focus on, “Oh, kids are the worst.
但人们一直如此关注“哦,孩子们是最糟糕的。
Look at all the things I can’t do.
看看我做不到的所有事情。
I can’t go out and drink.
我不能出去喝酒。
I can’t do this.
我做不到。
I can’t do that.” Yeah, that’s called sacrifice, and sacrifice is meaningful when you’re doing it for something worthwhile.
我不能那样做。”是的,这就是所谓的牺牲,当你为了有价值的事情而做的时候,牺牲是有意义的。
And what could be more worthwhile than literally the continuation of the human species?
还有什么比人类物种的延续更有价值的呢?
3:11:31 And that you have a stake in that.
并且你在其中有利害关系。
Now, there’s also just the sheer joys of watching a human grow from a baby to a toddler to a teenager.
现在,看着人类从婴儿成长为幼儿,再到青少年,这也是一种纯粹的快乐。
My oldest has just become a teenager.
我最大的孩子刚刚成为青少年。
3:11:49 And I often talk to Jamie, my wife, about this, where the regret I would have of having missed that opportunity on the last day would just be total, unlike anything else.
我经常和我的妻子杰米谈论这件事,如果我在最后一天错过了这个机会,我会感到非常遗憾,这与其他事情不同。
So I do think it is far more satisfying even in the moment that is normally portrayed.
所以我确实认为即使在通常描绘的那一刻也更令人满意。
Again, as I say, there’s such a focus on all the ways they suck.
正如我所说,人们对它们的所有糟糕之处都非常关注。
“Oh, you don’t get to sleep,” or whatever.
“哦,你睡不着”,或者诸如此类。
“They’re annoying.
“他们很烦人。
They’re ungrateful.” Yeah, yeah, these things are all true, but the sense of meaning you get from it is unparalleled.
他们忘恩负义。”是啊,是啊,这些都是真的,但你从中得到的意义却是无与伦比的。
And I’m excited about a lot of things.
我对很多事情感到兴奋。
I love building things, and I love hobbies, and I love all sorts of stuff.
我喜欢建造东西,我喜欢爱好,我喜欢各种各样的东西。
But creating life with another human that you love is literally the peak experience of being on the planet.
但与你所爱的另一个人一起创造生命确实是在这个星球上的巅峰体验。
What do you think about them coming up in this world full of AI?
你对他们出现在这个充满人工智能的世界有什么看法?
3:12:48 Is it totally diff- It feels like, maybe I just sound like an old man on a porch, but it feels like a very different world.
完全不同吗?感觉就像,也许我听起来就像一个站在门廊上的老人,但感觉就像一个非常不同的世界。
So I grew up before the internet, but even the internet doesn’t feel like as big of a transformation as this.
所以我是在互联网出现之前长大的,但即使是互联网也感觉不到像这样巨大的转变。
No.
不。
3:13:10 But there’s been bigger transformations.
但更大的转变发生了。
I mean, imagine growing or being born in like 1880.
我的意思是,想象一下在 1880 年成长或出生。
Imagine seeing the First World War and the Second World War.
想象一下第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战。
Imagine seeing the airplane, the radio- …
想象一下看到飞机、收音机……
television.
电视。
I mean, the transformation, and I think Peter Thiel makes this argument, that basically nothing has happened in the physical world in quite a long time.
我的意思是,转变,我认为彼得泰尔提出了这样的论点,即在相当长的一段时间内物理世界基本上没有发生任何事情。
We’ve been stagnant.
我们一直停滞不前。
All the development has been in the digital realm.
所有的发展都是在数字领域。
And as important as that is, it’s actually not as consequential as we like to believe it is.
尽管这很重要,但它实际上并不像我们想象的那么重要。
Maybe AI will be that thing that is more consequential.
也许人工智能将是更重要的事情。
It does seem to point that way.
它似乎确实表明了这一点。
But there are other humans at other times who have lived through-
但在其他时代也有其他人类经历过——
3:13:54 …
……
transitions that for them certainly would feel as momentous as what we’re living through.
对于他们来说,这种转变肯定会像我们正在经历的那样重要。
And I think having that sense of history, that you’re not that special in your sense of worries, in your anxieties.
我认为有了这种历史感,你的忧虑和焦虑感就没有那么特别了。
This was one of the great revelations of discovering the stoic writings.
这是发现斯多葛著作的伟大启示之一。
You have these guys 2,500 years ago dealing with very familiar dilemmas and challenges in their life, and recognizing that we’re not so special in that regard, I think is a great liberation.
2500 年前,这些人正在处理生活中非常熟悉的困境和挑战,并认识到我们在这方面并不那么特别,我认为这是一种巨大的解放。
Because then you think, “Okay, well, we have whatever, 200,000 years of human development before us, and they somehow made it through.”
因为那时你会想,“好吧,好吧,我们前面有 20 万年的人类发展史,而他们以某种方式度过了这一时期。”
Yeah.
是的。
3:14:37 And-
还有——
We will make it through.
我们会挺过去的。
…
……
3:14:40 the thing that makes life worthwhile is basically the same today as it was-
让生活变得有价值的东西今天和以前基本上是一样的——
Yes.
是的。
3:14:45 Yes.
是的。
…
……
3:14:46 2,000 years ago.
2000年前。
Yes.
是的。
3:14:47 Love, creation, creativity.
爱、创造、创造力。
Yeah.
是的。
3:14:50 Same challenges.
同样的挑战。
I read this book The Fourth Turning.
我读了《第四次转折》这本书。
3:14:51 You check that out.
你检查一下。
It talks about this notion of history working in cycles, and there are these phases to history, and they name them and so forth.
它谈论了历史循环运转的概念,历史有这些阶段,他们给它们命名等等。
And the specific theory is not as important as just realizing that this is a…
具体的理论并不重要,重要的是意识到这是一个……
History is a circle, more so than just a straight line.
历史是一个圆,而不仅仅是一条直线。
And we are repeating many of the same patterns over and over again.
我们一遍又一遍地重复许多相同的模式。
They feel so unique to the moment.
他们此刻感觉如此独特。
And whatever crisis we’re dealing with right now feels so pressing and important until we zoom back a little bit in history and realize that the last one also felt so pressing and important to the people who lived through it.
无论我们现在正在处理什么危机,都感觉如此紧迫和重要,直到我们回顾一下历史,并意识到上一场危机对于经历过它的人们来说也同样感到如此紧迫和重要。
Yeah.
是的。
3:15:40 You’re making me feel better.
你让我感觉好多了。
So I’m gonna travel across the country and spend a lot of time with no access to the internet, alone with my thoughts.
所以我要走遍全国,花很多时间在无法上网的情况下独自思考。
And that’s-
那就是——
I think that’s healthy, taking a break.
我认为这很健康,休息一下。
It’s okay.
没关系。
3:15:54 It’s okay.
没关系。
I took not a big break, a little break, break from X this summer, three weeks.
今年夏天我从 X 那里休息了三个星期,休息的时间不是很大,只是一点点。
Yeah, you were…
是的,你当时……
3:16:02 You disappeared off of-
你消失在——
I’m surprised you noticed.
我很惊讶你注意到了。
I went through withdrawals.
我经历了提款。
3:16:08 No.
不。
You disappeared for, I don’t know, a few weeks.
我不知道,你失踪了几个星期。
About three weeks.
大约三个星期。
Three weeks?
三周?
3:16:14 What happened?
发生了什么?
This is after, after Llama.
这是在骆驼之后。
I’ve done that before.
我以前就这么做过。
3:16:21 I just sometimes get the sense that X in particular is the most addictive form of information, entertainment, connection that exists in my life, and anyone that follow my X stream as I was on my flight over here would certainly go like, “That man is deeply addicted- to the connection.” And yes, guilty as charged, which also means that occasionally I gotta cut it cold, because I do think you can break your brain.
我有时会感觉到,X 是我生活中最容易上瘾的信息、娱乐和联系形式,当我在飞往这里的航班上关注我的 X 流的任何人肯定会说,“那个男人对这种联系深深上瘾了。”是的,有罪,这也意味着我有时必须冷静下来,因为我确实认为你可以打破你的大脑。
And over the summer in particular, for whatever reason, I had somehow managed to steer my feed, my algorithm, towards too much politics, and not enough tech, and not optimism, and not enough building.
特别是在夏天,无论出于什么原因,我设法将我的信息流、我的算法转向太多的政治,而没有足够的技术,没有乐观,也没有足够的建设。
And even if I agreed with the politics and the angles that were being presented, I just didn’t need- …
即使我同意政治和所提出的角度,我也不需要——……
that much of it.
就这么多。
3:17:23 And I think arriving at a place where you just go like, “Okay, that’s enough.” Not that…
我认为到达一个地方你就会说:“好吧,这就足够了。”不是那个……
Like, it doesn’t have to be something bad.
就像,这不一定是坏事。
I would also say after eating probably two, maybe three chocolate strawberries, I’d go like, “Okay, that’s enough.” Like, it’s not that I don’t like the chocolate strawberries, it’s just, like, I don’t wanna eat 17 of them.
我还会说,在吃了大约两个,也许三个巧克力草莓后,我会说,“好吧,这就足够了。”就像,并不是我不喜欢巧克力草莓,只是,我不想吃 17 个。
And I think X and the modern algorithms are very good at feeding you freaking 17 chocolate-covered strawberries.
我认为 X 和现代算法非常擅长给你喂 17 个巧克力草莓。
I wish I could, uh-
我希望我可以,呃-
Sorry for doping you.
抱歉给你服用兴奋剂。
…
……
3:17:54 control that.
控制那个。
Like, ’cause there’s…
就像,因为有……
I would like some politics, 5%.
我想要一些政治,5%。
I would like for example, one of the things I don’t like about the tech community is the snark, but I like some snark- …
例如,我想,我不喜欢科技界的一件事就是恶作剧,但我喜欢一些恶作剧——……
’cause it’s funny.
因为这很有趣。
But I want that to be like 10%.
但我希望这个比例能达到 10% 左右。
Yeah.
是的。
3:18:11 Yeah.
是的。
I want it just right.
我想要它恰到好处。
Of my…
我的…
3:18:13 Yeah, just right.
是的,刚刚好。
The Goldilocks version of the algorithm.
该算法的金发姑娘版本。
3:18:14 Well, the problem is the algorithm finds out what you respond to- …
好吧,问题是算法会找出你的反应——……
not what you say you like.
不是你说的你喜欢的。
It’s all revealed preferences, and unfortunately, those revealed preferences are not always pretty.
这都是显露的偏好,不幸的是,这些显露的偏好并不总是那么美好。
I mean, we have this shadow, as Jung talks about, right?
我的意思是,正如荣格所说,我们有这个阴影,对吧?
All these dark aspects of ourselves, and they are expressed in how long you linger on a tweet, and what you like, and what you don’t like.
我们所有这些阴暗的一面,都表现在你在一条推文上停留的时间、你喜欢什么、不喜欢什么。
And the algorithm holds up a mirror- …
该算法举起了一面镜子——……
and it’s not always pretty, and I just went, “Do you know what?
这并不总是那么美好,我只是说:“你知道吗?
I need a break.”
我需要休息一下。”
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
3:18:45 I’ve gotten to, I started staying off social media, and I’ve started scraping X.
我已经做到了,我开始远离社交媒体,并且开始抓取 X。
Like, for example, in preparation for this conversation, I’ve scraped all of your tweets.
例如,在准备这次对话时,我抓取了你所有的推文。
That’s actually a method I was using for a while.
这实际上是我曾经使用过一段时间的方法。
3:19:00 I was using a tool called, I forget.
我当时用的是一个工具,我忘了。
It was an email tool that would summarize every day, and unfortunately, freaking X cut off their access.
这是一个每天都会进行总结的电子邮件工具,不幸的是,该死的 X 切断了他们的访问权限。
Now to get access to the feed, you gotta pay some exorbitant- …
现在要访问提要,您必须支付一些高昂的费用 - ...
sum that this startup couldn’t pay.
这家初创公司无法支付这笔费用。
So I couldn’t get it that way, and I actually thought, “Man, that’s a miss,” because X has and reveals some of the most interesting thoughts.
所以我无法这样理解,我实际上想,“伙计,这太遗憾了”,因为 X 拥有并揭示了一些最有趣的想法。
Some of the most interesting people all the time.
一些一直以来最有趣的人。
But it’s like a damn slot machine, and most of the time you don’t hit the jackpot.
但这就像一台该死的老虎机,大多数时候你都不会中大奖。
You hit, like, something else.
你撞到了别的东西。
And if I could just get it in sort of snack sizes, not like all of it-
如果我能把它做成零食大小,而不是像所有的那样——
3:19:44 …
……
it’d be nicer.
那就更好了。
But that’s not the product.
但这不是产品。
And I think this goes for all of social media.
我认为这适用于所有社交媒体。
It’s all optimized towards maximal extraction, and if we’re making the parallels here to AI, that is the great fear, right?
这一切都是为了最大程度地提取而优化的,如果我们将其与人工智能进行比较,那就是最大的恐惧,对吧?
That once there is a reward function, how much time can I get this human to scroll away?
一旦有奖励功能,我可以让这个人在多长时间内滚动离开?
AI and machine learning before we called it AI, has become very, very good at delivering just the stuff that you will find most enraging and most addictive.
在我们称之为人工智能之前,人工智能和机器学习已经变得非常非常擅长提供你会发现最令人愤怒和最令人上瘾的东西。
I think all—I think legitimately engagement-maximizing social media is a huge harm to society.
我认为,我认为合法地最大化参与度的社交媒体对社会是一个巨大的伤害。
3:20:15 It’s creating this Brave New World situation that I hope is a temporary thing that people just solve.
它正在创造这种美丽新世界的局面,我希望这只是暂时的事情,人们只需解决即可。
It’s a technology problem.
这是一个技术问题。
So I try to consciously flood the channel in the other direction, and this required a mental shift.
所以我尝试有意识地向另一个方向淹没通道,这需要心理转变。
3:20:31 I think if you look at my tweets, like, I don’t know, five, 10 years ago, they tilted far more negative.
我想如果你看看我的推文,比如,我不知道,五年前、十年前,它们的倾向要负面得多。
If you look at my tweets now, I’d hope- …
如果你现在看我的推文,我希望——……
well, I guess we can do a sentiment analysis and see if it’s actually true.
好吧,我想我们可以进行情感分析,看看这是否属实。
No, it’s more good vibes.
不,这是更好的氛围。
But I hope to, that-
但我希望——
It’s good vibes.
这是很好的共鸣。
…
……
3:20:55 it’s more positive.
这更积极。
It’s more good vibes.
这是更好的共鸣。
It’s more like, “Here’s a bunch of cool stuff I found.” “Here’s what I’m excited about.” “Here’s what I’m building.
它更像是,“这是我发现的一堆很酷的东西。” “这就是我兴奋的地方。” “这就是我正在构建的东西。
Here’s some encouragement to other people who are discovering things.” I also accept that that is just not how human brains are built for maximum engagement.
这是对其他正在发现事物的人的一些鼓励。”我也承认,这并不是人类大脑为最大限度参与而构建的方式。
Like, there is a, whatever, there’s…
就像,有一个,无论如何,有……
I literally, I think you can quantify that negative sentiments find, what is it, 50% more traction or something?
我从字面上看,我认为你可以量化负面情绪的发现,它是什么,50%以上的吸引力或其他什么?
And eventually that just crowds things out.
最终这只会把事情排挤出去。
So that’s why so much of this feed is that negative stuff because we respond to it.
这就是为什么这么多的反馈都是负面的,因为我们会对它做出反应。
But you can make a conscious effort to not do that.
但你可以有意识地努力不这样做。
3:21:33 This is one of the reasons I’ve liked TikTok so much.
这是我如此喜欢 TikTok 的原因之一。
I only use TikTok when I travel, and this actually was the first travel where I didn’t use TikTok, and part of the reason was that even though the internet had high download, it was kind of crap anyway.
我只在旅行时使用 TikTok,这实际上是我第一次旅行不使用 TikTok,部分原因是尽管互联网下载量很高,但无论如何都是垃圾。
It wasn’t Starlink, so I couldn’t actually use TikTok on the plane, and I was too engrossed with the agents.
这不是星链,所以我实际上无法在飞机上使用 TikTok,而且我太专注于特工了。
But normally when I travel, I watch TikTok.
但通常当我旅行时,我会看 TikTok。
And there it’s such a marshmallow test.
这就是一个棉花糖测试。
A video will scroll down and, like, it’ll activate some sort of primal instincts of rage or lust or whatever, and if you linger on it, you don’t get the marshmallow of science, excitement, art, music, all these other things.
一段视频会向下滚动,就像,它会激活某种愤怒或欲望之类的原始本能,如果你在上面徘徊,你就不会得到科学、兴奋、艺术、音乐和所有其他东西的棉花糖。
You have to be disciplined-
你必须遵守纪律——
Yep.
是的。
3:22:21 Fast
快
…
……
to instantly scroll away- …
立即滚动离开 - ...
such that the algorithm doesn’t pick up your real preferences.
以至于算法无法识别您的真实偏好。
And I find that just to, at the meta game of TikTok- …
我发现,在 TikTok 的元游戏中——……
to be pretty interesting, and then also just fascinating in themselves.
变得非常有趣,然后自己也着迷。
Again, as we talked about, there are a lot of really funny, really talented people in the world that you would never, ever have heard of if it hadn’t been for these platforms.
正如我们所说,世界上有很多非常有趣、非常有才华的人,如果没有这些平台,你永远不会听说过他们。
Yep.
是的。
3:22:46 Who do you think is gonna win the race to AGI in this whole process?
您认为在整个过程中谁会赢得 AGI 竞赛?
We got Google, which is a big surprise to me, to a lot of people.
我们有了谷歌,这对我和很多人来说都是一个很大的惊喜。
I thought they had a good comeback for a second, and then I don’t hear anything about it anymore.
我一度以为他们的回归很好,然后我就再也没有听到任何消息了。
Yeah, it’s quite, I mean-
是的,确实如此,我的意思是——
But I’ve been wrong about this before.
但我以前在这个问题上犯过错误。
3:23:06 I mean, I think in February I had a tweet about like, “Oh, all I need is Kimi K2.5.” And in that brief moment, that was true.
我的意思是,我想二月份我有一条推文,内容是“哦,我需要的只是 Kimi K2.5。”在那短暂的时刻,这是真的。
It was true.
这是真的。
When I was instructing the agent, I was like, “Oh my God, Kimi’s just as good as these other models.” But then the game moved forward and- …
当我指导经纪人时,我想,“天哪,Kimi 和其他模特一样好。”但随后比赛继续前进——……
3:23:17 the agents got smarter, and I was no longer satisfied just instructing them, and I haven’t used Kimi a whole lot recently because the frontier models have gotten so good.
特工变得更加聪明,我不再满足于仅仅指导他们,而且我最近没有经常使用 Kimi,因为前沿模型已经变得非常好。
And somehow Anthropic has been able to, for the most part, stay on top of the programming world.
不知何故,Anthropic 在很大程度上能够保持在编程世界的领先地位。
Yes.
是的。
3:23:42 Yes.
是的。
I mean y- a lot of people argue with Codex being it’s-
我的意思是——很多人都反对 Codex,因为它是——
No, I don’t think there’s that much of an argument at the moment.
不,我认为目前没有那么多争论。
3:23:46 Codex is very good.
法典非常好。
I use it all the time.
我一直用它。
It’s my favorite checker.
这是我最喜欢的检查器。
It keeps finding stuff.
它不断地寻找东西。
It’s great.
这很棒。
But one of the things I’ve found that I like so much about the current Claude models is they’re really good writers out of the box.
但我发现我非常喜欢当前克劳德模型的一件事是,他们真的是开箱即用的优秀作家。
GPT is a terrible writer out of the box.
GPT 是一个糟糕的开箱即用的编写器。
Like, the pull requests you get on a blank context that you’re asking it to open, terrible.
就像,你在一个空白的上下文中收到的拉取请求,你要求它打开,太糟糕了。
Like, really awful writing.
就像,写得真的很糟糕。
The pull requests and descriptions and commit messages and so forth I get out of Claude models- …
我从克劳德模型中得到了拉取请求、描述和提交消息等等——……
even though occasionally they can be a little verbose on code comments and you gotta tell them to be succinct.
尽管有时他们的代码注释可能有点冗长,但你必须告诉他们要简洁。
But the writing style is really good.
但文笔风格确实不错。
3:24:28 To the point that for a while I was just having it reply on pull requests as me, because I was just using my own account.
以至于有一段时间我只是让它像我一样回复拉取请求,因为我只是使用自己的帐户。
I was like, “That looks a lot like me, that, like, I could have written that.” But then I went like, “Eh, do you know what?
我当时想,“这看起来很像我,我本来可以写的。”但后来我说:“呃,你知道吗?
That’s disingenuous.” So no, whenever I have an agent post on my behalf, I always have it sign itself like whatever, Claude on behalf of DHH.
这是不诚实的。”所以不,每当我有代表我的代理帖子时,我总是让它自己签名,就像克劳德代表 DHH 一样。
But they are still ahead.
但他们仍然领先。
They have the best harness too, in my opinion.
在我看来,他们也拥有最好的安全带。
Claude Code is still better.
克劳德·科德还是比较好。
I really like OpenCode too, and I really like some features that they have, but overall I was actually sort of weirdly, I don’t know if I was proven wrong, but when Anthropic cut off all the other harnesses from using the subscriptions-
我也真的很喜欢 OpenCode,而且我真的很喜欢他们拥有的一些功能,但总的来说,我实际上有点奇怪,我不知道我是否被证明是错的,但是当 Anthropic 切断了所有其他使用订阅的安全带时——
3:25:12 …
……
that you can no longer use your Claude subscription in OpenCode.
您无法再在 OpenCode 中使用您的 Claude 订阅。
I was kinda pissed because it felt like it was a protective, protectionist move.
我有点生气,因为这感觉像是一种保护性的、保护主义的举动。
“Oh, we gotta lock you in,” and of course it played into the fact that Claude out of the box still refuses to read agents.md.
“哦,我们得把你锁起来,”当然,这也说明了克劳德开箱即用仍然拒绝阅读 Agents.md。
It refuses to read .agent/skills.
它拒绝读取.agent/skills。
It is .Claude skills.
这是克劳德的技能。
It is Claude MD, and it just feels so petty- …
这是克劳德医学博士,感觉很琐碎——……
that we now have, we have to put these in directions.
我们现在已经拥有了这些,我们必须将它们指明方向。
So all my projects, they have a Claude MD, and all it includes is a pointer to the agents MD, right?
所以我的所有项目都有一个 Claude MD,它包含的只是一个指向代理 MD 的指针,对吗?
And I just went like, well, if these things are true, if Anthropic is willing to do these petty paper cuts just to be annoying, it’s probably also true that they’re cutting off OpenCode from the subscription just to be dicks about it.
我只是想,好吧,如果这些事情是真的,如果 Anthropic 愿意做这些琐碎的剪纸只是为了烦人,那么他们从订阅中切断 OpenCode 也可能只是为了对此感到厌恶。
And maybe that’s also true.
也许这也是真的。
3:26:04 But I found that using Claude in Claude Code is actually a good example So I was like, all right, I’m annoyed.
但我发现在 Claude Code 中使用 Claude 实际上是一个很好的例子所以我想,好吧,我很生气。
I wish it wasn’t so, but this is the other thing I have and social media is so good at this.
我希望不是这样,但这是我拥有的另一件事,社交媒体在这方面非常擅长。
Some company does something you don’t like, right?
有些公司做了你不喜欢的事情,对吗?
Now suddenly you have to swear off everything.
现在突然你必须发誓放弃一切。
Why are you…
你为什么……
Someone just asked me, “Why are you still using Claude?” I had another example where I really didn’t like what Claude was saying about some writing I had asked it to do before.
有人问我,“你为什么还在用克劳德?”我还有另一个例子,我真的不喜欢克劳德所说的关于我之前要求它做的一些写作的内容。
Oh, yeah, you got there-
噢,是的,你到了——
I had an essay it didn’t want to translate into Italian.
我有一篇文章不想翻译成意大利语。
…
……
3:26:40 you had a blog post.
你有一篇博客文章。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
The essence of the post that it felt like, well, I’m not gonna translate that because I don’t agree with what you’ve written.
这篇文章的本质是,好吧,我不会翻译它,因为我不同意你所写的内容。
3:26:41 Which to me was straight out of Space Odyssey, right?
对我来说,这就是太空漫游中的直接内容,对吧?
HAL telling me, “I’m sorry, Dave.
哈尔告诉我:“对不起,戴夫。
I can’t do that, Dave.” Open the pod bay.
我不能这么做,戴夫。”打开 Pod 舱。
Translate my essay to Italian.
将我的文章翻译成意大利语。
And it wouldn’t do it.
但它不会这么做。
And I just thought like, well, that’s kind of terrifying.
我只是想,嗯,这有点可怕。
But then I also went, well, why am I asking Claude to translate my essay into Italian?
但后来我也想,好吧,为什么我要要求克劳德把我的文章翻译成意大利语?
I never asked Claude for that because Claude just does my code.
我从来没有向克劳德提出这个要求,因为克劳德只做我的代码。
So I could also just accept that maybe Anthropic is run by a bunch of people I don’t share much politics with.
所以我也可以接受这样的事实:也许 Anthropic 是由一群与我没有太多政治观点的人经营的。
3:27:20 And they don’t want their agents to be used for that, and I think that kinda sucks, but that doesn’t mean it, I have to stop using it for generating code.
他们不希望他们的代理被用于此目的,我认为这有点糟糕,但这并不意味着,我必须停止使用它来生成代码。
And I’ve thought, and I’ve tried to do that with people too, become better at tolerating the fact that not only will I not agree with everything someone has to say, I don’t— I can even be mad about certain positions or things they say and still go like, “Well, you’re still an interesting person, so I’m still gonna follow you.” And I’ve actually kinda gone back on a number of people where I’m like, oh man, that person really pissed me off because they took this point or another point, and went like, do you know what?
我想,而且我也尝试对人们这样做,变得更好地容忍这样一个事实:我不仅不会同意别人所说的一切,我什至会对他们所说的某些立场或事情感到生气,但仍然会说,“好吧,你仍然是一个有趣的人,所以我仍然会跟随你。”事实上,我对很多人都有点反感,我想,天哪,那个人真的让我很生气,因为他们接受了这一点或另一点,然后说,你知道吗?
That’s stupid.
那太愚蠢了。
I should be able to accept the full spectrum of someone.
我应该能够接受某人的全部。
I don’t have to like all the shades of it.
我不必喜欢它的所有色调。
3:28:06 I could just go like, okay, well, on that topic we either disagree or, even worse than that, I think you’re a fucking idiot.
我可以说,好吧,好吧,在这个话题上我们要么不同意,要么更糟糕的是,我认为你是个白痴。
And on another topic, you’re a smart and insightful person.
在另一个话题上,你是一个聪明而有洞察力的人。
Because first of all, of course, it’s a little self-serving.
因为首先,这当然有点自私。
I know for a fact that this is how lots of people feel about me.
我知道很多人对我的看法就是这样。
Like, oh, if he could just stick to talking about these topics, it would be so much easier on my feed because otherwise he’ll say these things I disagree with, and that annoys me greatly.
就像,哦,如果他能坚持谈论这些话题,我的提要就会容易得多,因为否则他会说这些我不同意的事情,这让我非常恼火。
I’m like, do you know what?
我想,你知道吗?
Human beings are jagged like that, and we’re not fully compatible on all the levels.
人类就是这样参差不齐,我们在所有层面上都不完全兼容。
Nor should we be.
我们也不应该这样。
3:28:40 The world would be so fucking boring if we constantly sought 100% compatibility in our opinions and in our politics.
如果我们不断地寻求我们的观点和政治上100%的兼容性,这个世界将会变得多么无聊。
And when it comes to my code generator, which is what Claude is, I don’t need it to share all my politics.
当谈到我的代码生成器(Claude)时,我不需要它来分享我所有的政治观点。
And therefore it’s nice to have competition.
因此,有竞争是件好事。
And it’s also nice to have open weight models.
拥有开放重量模型也很好。
3:28:58 So this is, again, ironic that we’re getting this out of China.
因此,我们将其从中国转移出去,这再次具有讽刺意味。
In fact, I did this test right after the issue with the essay that couldn’t get translated into Italian.
事实上,我在这篇无法翻译成意大利语的文章发表后就做了这个测试。
I asked Kimi K27, to be fair, through OpenCode, so not the Kimi harness, and inference through Fireworks, so an American inference.
公平地说,我问 Kimi K27,通过 OpenCode,所以不是 Kimiharness,并通过 Fireworks 进行推理,所以是美国的推理。
I asked it about Tiananmen Square.
我问的是天安门广场。
Like, that’s usually the test, right?
就像,这通常是测试,对吧?
Like, all the Chinese models, they don’t wanna talk about that moment in 1989.
就像所有的中国模特一样,他们不想谈论 1989 年的那一刻。
That was actually how I, that was how I posted.
其实我就是这样,我就是这样发帖的。
I was like, “What happened in China in 1989?” That was the prompt.
我当时想,“1989年中国发生了什么?”这就是提示。
And K25 7 on Fireworks just answered, like, extremely bluntly- …
Fireworks 上的 K25 7 刚刚回答道,非常直白——……
With a description and depiction of what had transpired-
对所发生的事情进行了描述和描述——
Yes
是的
…
……
3:29:49 to a point that, like, there’s no way that that would’ve been kosher with the Chinese censors, right?
以至于,对于中国的审查机构来说,这是不可能的,对吧?
And I just thought, like, isn’t that ironic?
我只是想,这不是很讽刺吗?
I’m running a Chinese open weight model that I can tell or I can ask about 1989 and Tiananmen Square, and in America, I can’t get a frontier model to translate a marginally controversial essay about immigration into Italian.
我正在运行一个中国开放权重模型,我可以讲述或询问有关 1989 年和天安门广场的事情,而在美国,我无法使用前沿模型将一篇关于移民的略有争议的文章翻译成意大利语。
Mm-hmm.
嗯嗯。
3:30:16 I don’t know, you and I might disagree about this actually.
我不知道,你和我实际上可能对此有不同意见。
I was really deeply troubled that the US government banned a model or pressured Claude and then-
我真的对美国政府禁止模特或向克劳德施压感到深感不安,然后——
It’s still very muddy what exactly transpired.
到底发生了什么仍然很混乱。
3:30:31 Was this sort of petty retaliation for whatever the Department of War?
这是对战争部的小规模报复吗?
Was this simply Anthropic themselves going like, “Oh my God, we discovered a cyber weapon so powerful that we can’t let anyone have it”?
难道这只是人类自己的想法,“天哪,我们发现了一种如此强大的网络武器,我们不能让任何人拥有它”?
Well, okay you can’t be surprised then if the government wants a say on a cyber weapon so powerful it can-
好吧,好吧,如果政府想要对如此强大的网络武器拥有发言权,那么你就不会感到惊讶,因为它可以——
The-
该-
…
……
3:30:55 I don’t know, rob banks
不知道,抢银行
…
……
3:30:56 The problem I have with that whole thing is, no matter what happened, it sets a precedent.
我对整件事的问题是,无论发生什么,它都开创了先例。
And so government, when you give it that power, it’s gonna start abusing it.
因此,当你赋予政府这种权力时,它就会开始滥用它。
I could see for political means pressuring a model.
我可以看到政治手段对模型施加压力。
You know, if it’s a Republican president pressuring models to be, to censor more,
你知道,如果是一位共和党总统向模特施压,要求他们进行更多审查,
Sure
当然可以
…
……
3:31:18 Democratic views and-
民主观点和——
Right
右
…
……
3:31:20 For vice, and vice versa.
反之亦然。
That’s why we should insist on the fact that this stuff, like, I’m sorry, Dave, I can’t translate your essay into Italian.
这就是为什么我们应该坚持这样一个事实,比如,对不起,戴夫,我无法将你的文章翻译成意大利语。
3:31:21 That’s way beyond the line.
这远远超出了界限。
Like, whatever the sort of root of it is, you have to be a tool first.
就像,无论它的根源是什么,你必须首先成为一个工具。
Now, if the tool is, “Hey, can you tell me how to make anthrax?” Okay, fine.
现在,如果该工具是:“嘿,你能告诉我如何制作炭疽吗?”好吧,好吧。
Right?
正确的?
But within the jurisdiction you’re in, and certainly in America, free speech is quite absolute.
但在你所在的管辖范围内,当然是在美国,言论自由是相当绝对的。
Very, very few limits on free speech, and that’s one of the reasons why the country’s so great.
对言论自由的限制非常非常少,这就是这个国家如此伟大的原因之一。
And yeah, I don’t like that.
是的,我不喜欢那样。
But on the other hand, I’m also a big fan of market competition.
但另一方面,我也非常喜欢市场竞争。
So while I don’t like this about Anthropic models, I appreciate that I could go next door to Groq and get my task completed.
因此,虽然我不喜欢人择模型,但我很高兴我可以去 Groq 隔壁完成我的任务。
Do you think outside of blog posts, do you think there’s some legitimacy, like can you steelman Dario’s case that we should be careful about the release of these models?
你认为除了博客文章之外,你是否认为有一些合法性,就像钢铁侠达里奥(Dario)所说的那样,我们应该谨慎对待这些模型的发布?
Is AI safety important?
AI安全重要吗?
3:32:25 Yes.
是的。
Are– do these models have capabilities that could be seriously harmful in the production of biological weapons or otherwise?
这些模型是否具有可能对生物武器或其他生产造成严重危害的能力?
Yes.
是的。
Is it fair to have some ground rules on that?
对此制定一些基本规则公平吗?
Yes.
是的。
But then don’t squander it by denying the translation of an essay, because then you erase the whole thing and you- …
但不要因为拒绝一篇文章的翻译而浪费它,因为这样你就抹掉了整件事,然后你——……
bias everyone towards thinking like every guardrail you put up is gonna be bullshit.
每个人都倾向于认为你设置的每一个护栏都是废话。
Yeah.
是的。
3:32:55 The security piece of it is tricky because it’s so good at finding vulnerabilities.
它的安全部分很棘手,因为它非常擅长发现漏洞。
Shockingly– I was about to say annoyingly, but that’s not actually true because what it’s finding, at least when you’re using in defensive ways, is it’s finding real issues that a clever hacker could exploit.
令人震惊的是——我本来想说的是恼人的,但这实际上不是真的,因为它发现的,至少当你以防御方式使用时,它发现的是聪明的黑客可以利用的真正问题。
3:33:01 But nothing has caused as much stress, to be fair, at the technical team at 37signals, like the fact that these latest batches of models are exceptionally good at finding these issues.
但公平地说,没有什么比这些最新批次的模型非常擅长发现这些问题这一事实给 37signals 的技术团队带来如此大的压力了。
So suddenly there’s just this seemingly endless parade of security vulnerabilities that need to be patched and fixed and sorted and so on.
突然之间,似乎有无穷无尽的安全漏洞需要修补、修复和排序等等。
And the end result is we end up with vastly more secure systems.
最终结果是我们得到了更加安全的系统。
But the road there is pretty rocky.
但那里的路相当崎岖。
Do you think it’s– ’cause you said seemingly endless, do you think it’s a finite set, like we can get to the bottom of it?
你是否认为它是——因为你说看似无穷无尽,你是否认为这是一个有限集,就像我们可以追根溯源一样?
3:33:41 So just make the systems much, much more secure, where we get back to this semi-stable state where mostly it’s very difficult to find security vulnerabilities.
因此,只要让系统变得更加安全,我们就会回到这种半稳定状态,在这种状态下,大多数情况下很难找到安全漏洞。
I do think that all the aggressive tendencies of these models, or not even tendencies, uses of these models are also the defensive ones.
我确实认为这些模型的所有攻击倾向,或者甚至不是这些模型的使用倾向,也是防御倾向。
3:33:59 So if you’re good at finding an exploit for exploits, you’re also good at finding exploits for defense.
因此,如果您擅长为漏洞找到漏洞,那么您也擅长为防御找到漏洞。
So in that sense, it does feel like we’re spy versus spy here, black and white, but with the same capabilities and with the same actions.
所以从这个意义上说,我们确实感觉就像是间谍与间谍之间的对决,黑白分明,但具有相同的能力和相同的行动。
But while we still have to steer these agents somewhat and verify and vet the work, it’s creating a lot of intense moments for security teams around the world.
但是,尽管我们仍然需要对这些代理进行一定程度的引导并验证和审查工作,但这为世界各地的安全团队创造了很多紧张的时刻。
And of course, the more concerning part is all the teams that are not stressed, like they just don’t know, right?
当然,更令人担忧的是所有团队都没有压力,就像他们只是不知道一样,对吧?
3:34:45 Like if you’re a team right now and you’re not dealing with a bunch of patches, it’s just because you’re blind, and it means that your adversaries quite probably have access to techniques that can get into your system.
就像如果你现在是一个团队并且你没有处理一堆补丁,那只是因为你是盲目的,这意味着你的对手很可能能够访问可以进入你的系统的技术。
And we should also say one of the big security vulnerabilities in the world is the human side.
我们还应该说,世界上最大的安全漏洞之一是人的方面。
3:34:59 You know, social engineering, and that’s extremely concerning with increasingly intelligent AI systems, you know, being able to write emails and phone calls and faking voices, thinking about folks less tech-savvy.
你知道,社会工程,这与日益智能的人工智能系统极其相关,你知道,能够写电子邮件、打电话和伪造声音,考虑那些不太懂技术的人。
This stuff is gonna come, and it’s gonna come in bulk.
这些东西会来的,而且是批量来的。
3:35:19 But again, I choose to be optimistic about it that-
但我再次选择乐观地看待——
Amen
阿门
…
……
3:35:25 whatever these models can do aggressively, they can also do it defensively.
无论这些模型可以采取积极的行动,它们也可以采取防御性的行动。
So like you said, recently released Amate 4, Quattro.
正如您所说,最近发布了 Amate 4、Quattro。
3:35:29 And you said it’s one of the greatest software releases in my professional career, which is a hell of a statement.
你说这是我职业生涯中最伟大的软件版本之一,这真是一个绝妙的说法。
It’s a hell of a milepost for what’s possible at the moment.
对于目前可能发生的事情来说,这是一个里程碑。
3:35:42 And the reason I said it like that is not that I haven’t worked on anything else of note.
我之所以这么说,并不是因为我没有做过任何其他值得注意的事情。
I’ve worked on a lot of things of note, a lot of things that I’m very proud of.
我做了很多值得注意的事情,很多我感到非常自豪的事情。
There are very few other projects that I have worked on that in the amount of time that I’ve spent on Quattro, which is really three months, I have been able to accomplish as much, fulfill as many hopes, desires, wishes.
我在 Quattro 上花费的时间(实际上是三个月)中,我从事过的其他项目很少,我能够完成尽可能多的工作,实现尽可能多的希望、愿望和愿望。
It truly is like the metaphor we used earlier about finding the genie in the bottle-
这确实就像我们之前用的关于寻找瓶子里的精灵的比喻——
3:36:24 …
……
and having an unlimited number of wishes, more or less, for getting everything I wanted out of a system.
或多或少有无限数量的愿望,希望从系统中得到我想要的一切。
So it’s strange because it’s also perhaps the major software release that I’ve worked on the least in terms of lines of code.
所以这很奇怪,因为就代码行数而言,它可能也是我开发过的主要软件版本。
I have the least number of personally hand-chiseled lines of code in Quattro than I’ve had in any major release I’ve ever done.
我在 Quattro 中亲自手工凿刻的代码行数量是我做过的任何主要版本中最少的。
And yet, I am insanely proud of what we’ve accomplished.
然而,我对我们所取得的成就感到非常自豪。
I would not have guessed that that was how it was gonna play out, that you could divorce the sense of achievement and make it be like a team victory.
我没想到事情会这样发展,你可以摆脱成就感,让它看起来像团队的胜利。
3:37:08 Where other releases, I was very happy for my personal contribution because, like, I was the one chiseling out the lines of code, and then I would push it out there, and then later on, of course, these projects, Rails in particular, would grow into be huge open source projects with thousands and thousands of contributors, and then it certainly was a team effort.
在其他版本中,我对我的个人贡献感到非常高兴,因为,就像,我是那个凿出代码行的人,然后我会把它推出去,然后,当然,这些项目,特别是 Rails,将成长为拥有成千上万贡献者的巨大开源项目,然后这当然是团队的努力。
But in the beginning, all code bases that I’ve– almost all of them that I’ve worked on, I started, like, just myself.
但一开始,我所开发的所有代码库——几乎所有我开发过的代码库,都是我从我自己开始的。
And Quattro started as a team effort right from the get-go, and where I was just the coach.
Quattro 从一开始就是一个团队的努力,而我只是教练。
I was telling the agents where to go, and we would go.
我告诉特工去哪里,我们就去。
So to be able to find satisfaction in that actually gives me great hope for retirement in some way, that there is a phase after playing that you can enjoy.
因此,能够找到满足感实际上让我在某种程度上对退休充满了希望,在比赛结束后有一个阶段是你可以享受的。
3:37:56 And I know that’s not easy.
我知道这并不容易。
You look at sports and the number of professional athletes who really struggle to cope with the fact that their career is over and have to find a new identity as someone who doesn’t play football or race Formula 1 cars.
你看看体育运动和有多少职业运动员,他们确实在努力应对职业生涯结束的事实,并且必须找到一个新的身份,作为一个不踢足球或参加一级方程式赛车的人。
I mean, it’s more the rule than the exception.
我的意思是,这更多的是规则而不是例外。
So I wasn’t so sure about myself.
所以我对自己不太确定。
I wasn’t so sure about having to give up or not even having, wanting to give it up.
我不太确定是否必须放弃,或者甚至没有、想要放弃。
Wanting to play another level of the game and finding not just equal satisfaction, but more satisfaction in it.
想要玩另一个级别的游戏,不仅能找到同等的满足感,还能从中找到更多的满足感。
Do you…
你…
3:38:34 You’ve been pretty optimistic about Linux.
您对 Linux 非常乐观。
Do you think legit Linux can increase its adoption?
您认为合法的 Linux 可以提高其采用率吗?
‘Cause, you know, for many years the meme is, you know-
因为,你知道,多年来的模因是,你知道——
Linux on the desktop- …
桌面上的 Linux——...
3:38:45 every year.
每年。
Next year again.
明年再来。
Yeah.
是的。
3:38:48 But it seems like, at least the case you’re making, the energy you’re putting into it, you could see a vision where it takes over because agents love Linux.
但看起来,至少在你正在做的案例中,你投入的精力,你可以看到一个愿景,因为特工喜欢 Linux。
Not only can I see it, I find it to be the most probable outcome at this point.
我不仅能看到它,而且我发现这是目前最有可能的结果。
3:38:58 It is simply too well-suited for the moment.
它实在是太适合目前的情况了。
And again, as we talked about, it’s a great irony that all the flaws of Linux, the arcane config files, all the strange error messages and so on should just so happen to be the perfect thing for an agentic operating system.
再次,正如我们所讨论的,这是一个极大的讽刺,Linux 的所有缺陷、神秘的配置文件、所有奇怪的错误消息等等都恰好是代理操作系统的完美之选。
But so it is, and we should rejoice that fate has this irony, and just laugh at it.
但事实就是如此,我们应该庆幸命运有这样的讽刺,并一笑置之。
How…
如何……
It’s so funny to me that all the advantages that Apple had for the longest time- …
对我来说很有趣的是,苹果公司长期以来拥有的所有优势——……
that they produced this really locked down curated experience should become their greatest drawback now.
他们创造了这种真正锁定的策划体验现在应该成为他们最大的缺点。
If you’re into agents and development and working with all this stuff, the Mac is just a hostile place to be.
如果您热衷于代理、开发以及使用所有这些东西,那么 Mac 就是一个充满敌意的地方。
It just has walls all over the place.
它只是到处都有墙。
3:39:59 And Linux is simply open through and through.
Linux 就是彻底的开放。
And it’s also interesting because that was not obvious either.
这也很有趣,因为这也不明显。
If you look at the way a lot of the Linux communities, open source communities, have reacted to AI, it is not universal love.
如果你看看很多 Linux 社区、开源社区对人工智能的反应,就会发现这并不是普遍的喜爱。
I would argue that the majority of them are actually, if not skeptical, then outright hostile- …
我认为他们中的大多数人实际上即使不是持怀疑态度,也是完全敌对的——……
to AI.
到人工智能。
Now, the saving grace is that the BDFL himself, Linus- …
现在,可取之处在于 BDFL 本人,Linus——……
Torvalds, just wrote a few weeks ago that he actually welcomes AI.
Torvalds 几周前刚刚写道,他实际上欢迎人工智能。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
He wants to steer it.
他想驾驭它。
3:40:35 He wants to make sure it’s good and whatever, but I- the line was something, if you think Linux is an anti-AI project, think again, and you should just do the open source thing and fork it, because we’re gonna use AI.
他想确保它是好的,等等,但我 - 如果你认为 Linux 是一个反人工智能项目,再想一想,你应该做开源的事情并分叉它,因为我们将使用人工智能。
And you see these graphs of the number of AI contributions going into the kernel, and it’s a parabolic curve.
你会看到这些进入内核的人工智能贡献数量的图表,它是一条抛物线。
So Linux is leaning hard into this.
所以 Linux 正在努力解决这个问题。
And it actually in, in other ways it was surprising that it didn’t.
事实上,在其他方面,令人惊讶的是它没有。
Linux conquered everything else.
Linux 征服了一切。
All the AI infrastructure that everyone runs off, it’s all running on Linux.
每个人使用的所有人工智能基础设施都在 Linux 上运行。
3:41:11 All the systems, all the servers, everything is Linux.
所有的系统、所有的服务器、一切都是Linux。
So it was kind of a curiosity that the desktop and the personal computers we were using really hadn’t been captured, but clearly it was just waiting for this moment.
因此,令人好奇的是,我们使用的台式机和个人电脑确实没有被捕获,但显然它只是在等待这一刻。
Linux spent the time from ’91 to now waiting for agents to fully flourish as an end user operating system.
从 91 年到现在,Linux 一直在等待代理作为最终用户操作系统的全面发展。
I hope it takes over.
我希望它能接管。
3:41:35 I mean, it’s perfect.
我的意思是,它很完美。
It’s perfect for agents, but it’s hard for people to switch.
它对于代理商来说是完美的,但对于人们来说很难转换。
I think it’s hard for people to switch when there’s not a compelling reason to do so.
我认为,当没有令人信服的理由时,人们很难改变。
3:41:41 This was one of the driving design goals for Omarchy.
这是 Omarchy 的驱动设计目标之一。
It was not gonna be Temu Windows or Temu Mac.
它不会是 Temu Windows 或 Temu Mac。
It was not just gonna be a cheap copy where we try to make it as familiar as possible and then kinda worse.
这不仅仅是一个廉价的副本,我们试图让它尽可能熟悉,然后变得更糟。
I mean, if I was being unkind, I would say that’s what Ubuntu has tried to do.
我的意思是,如果我不客气的话,我会说这就是 Ubuntu 试图做的事情。
And there’s something in that, or there was something in that at least, where if you make something really familiar, you can get some people who don’t wanna learn something new, and then maybe they’ll be compelled about your, whatever, free as in speech, not as in beer stuff.
这里面有一些东西,或者至少有一些东西,如果你让一些东西非常熟悉,你可能会吸引一些不想学习新东西的人,然后也许他们会被迫接受你的东西,不管怎样,像言论自由一样自由,而不是像啤酒那样自由。
And it just didn’t pan out that way.
但事实并非如此。
People just didn’t care.
人们只是不在乎。
They just wanted whatever was better.
他们只是想要更好的东西。
3:42:27 And I think this is why Linux now has the opportunity to win.
我认为这就是 Linux 现在有机会获胜的原因。
Because as an agentic operating system, as a malleable operating system, you can tailor to your desires, it is unparalleled.
因为作为一个代理操作系统,作为一个可延展的操作系统,你可以根据你的愿望进行定制,这是无与伦比的。
And that is so compelling, and I can see it now.
这太引人注目了,我现在就明白了。
Just since the release of Quattro, the amount of people who have embraced that aspect of it, the malleability, started making their own things, sharing screenshot of it, and being absolute just flooded with positive emotions and dopamine- …
自从 Quattro 发布以来,很多人都接受了它的可塑性,开始制作自己的东西,分享它的屏幕截图,并且绝对充满了积极的情绪和多巴胺——……
is, that’s the product market fit signal, right?
是的,这就是产品市场契合度信号,对吗?
Because what a lot of these individuals are experiencing, they’re experiencing the very high of what the best of being a programmer is like.
因为这些人中的很多人正在经历,他们正在经历作为一名程序员的最佳状态。
3:43:16 You tell the computer these arcane commands, this rigid logical structure, and it produces what you want.
你告诉计算机这些晦涩难懂的命令,这种严格的逻辑结构,它就会产生你想要的东西。
Now suddenly, you sit down and in plain English ramble for 20 minutes.
现在,你突然坐下来,用简单的英语闲聊了 20 分钟。
“Oh, it’d be great if it did that.
“噢,如果能做到这一点就太好了。
Actually, no, that’s not right.
事实上,不,这是不对的。
Let us…” And out comes software.
让我们……”然后软件就出来了。
Out comes an operating system shaped in your image.
一个按照您的形象塑造的操作系统诞生了。
I think that is one of those experiences that if you have it…
我认为这是其中一种经历,如果你有的话……
If you feel that power in your hands, it’s very difficult to go back.
如果你感觉到手中有这种力量,就很难回去。
And I think if you get it right, it’s one of those things that will seem obvious in retrospect.
我认为,如果你做对了,回想起来,这就是显而易见的事情之一。
Yes.
是的。
3:43:58 This is how computers were always meant to be.
这就是计算机的本来面目。
This is how computers started.
这就是计算机的起源。
The Commodore 64, you turn it on.
Commodore 64,你打开它。
First of all, it boots in a second.
首先,它会在一秒钟内启动。
Amazing.
惊人的。
Second of all, it boots straight into BASIC.
其次,它直接启动进入 BASIC。
It was the malleable computer from the get-go.
它从一开始就是一台可塑的计算机。
It just so happened that you needed to know hieroglyphs- …
碰巧你需要了解象形文字——……
to be able to take advantage of that.
能够利用这一点。
Now we’ve translated it.
现在我们已经翻译了。
Agents have given us the Rosetta Stone, and you can simply just speak your desires and- And so they are
特工们给了我们罗塞塔石碑,你只需说出你的愿望,然后——所以他们就是
Beautifully put.
摆得很漂亮。
3:44:28 Since you mentioned Linus Torvalds, and since you’re working on a Linux distro, you get to have contact with the kernel.
既然您提到了 Linus Torvalds,并且您正在开发 Linux 发行版,那么您就可以接触到内核。
What can you say about the genius of this one guy that helped create and grow this ecosystem?
您对帮助创建和发展这个生态系统的这个人的天才有何评价?
The perseverance and the commitment and the longevity is truly remarkable.
毅力、承诺和长寿确实令人惊叹。
3:44:45 Again, Linus started in ’91.
同样,Linus 是从 91 年开始的。
He hasn’t stopped.
他没有停下来。
I don’t know, he’s probably taken some breaks along the way.
我不知道,他可能一路上休息了一些。
It doesn’t seem obvious that there was that many of them.
看起来并不明显有那么多。
It seems like he just really likes the flow of doing kernel development.
看来他真的很喜欢内核开发的流程。
He really likes steering where this 40 million line code base is going.
他真的很喜欢指导这个 4000 万行代码库的走向。
He really likes aggregating the net capacity of hundreds of thousands of contributors, and we, as beneficiaries of that, must just sit back and marvel.
他真的很喜欢聚合数十万贡献者的净能力,而我们作为受益者,必须坐下来惊叹不已。
I mean, at this point, Linux is a system.
我的意思是,在这一点上,Linux 是一个系统。
Like, if Linus stepped out for a while, it would continue to go, but it’s still one of those protect this man at all cost.
就像,如果莱纳斯出去一段时间,它会继续走下去,但它仍然是不惜一切代价保护这个人的人之一。
And he’s still open-minded enough to be able to evolve and- …
而且他的思想仍然足够开放,能够不断发展并且——……
3:45:36 accept AI into this.
接受人工智能。
Yes, not only AI, they’re letting Rust into the kernel too.
是的,不仅是人工智能,他们也让 Rust 进入内核。
3:45:41 I know that was a controversial one too.
我知道这也是一个有争议的问题。
He has this capacity to look at new information- …
他有能力查看新信息——……
and arrive at different conclusions.
并得出不同的结论。
What do you think about his style of communication that is akin in some ways to your own, where he can be sometimes a little spicy?
他的沟通方式在某些方面与你的沟通方式类似,有时会有点辛辣,你对此有何看法?
I think the world has gotten too bland.
我觉得这个世界已经变得太平淡了。
3:46:02 We need a little spice.
我们需要一点香料。
Amen, amen to that.
阿门,阿门。
Now, I think there’s a fine line between being spicy and mean.
现在,我认为辛辣和刻薄之间存在着微妙的界限。
3:46:08 But it has to be in a good spirit.
但一定要有良好的精神状态。
You can be harsh, let’s put it that way.
你可以很严厉,这么说吧。
If you’re trying to impart a lesson to someone you believe could actually learn it- …
如果你想向你相信实际上可以学到的人传授一课——……
I actually don’t think it’s always the worst thing in the world to be a little harsh.
事实上,我并不认为有点严厉总是世界上最糟糕的事情。
Sometimes that lesson sticks, and I think if you talk to people who’ve worked for difficult leaders, Elon, Steve Jobs, maybe even Bill Gates, many of them afterwards would go like, “These were some very difficult years- …
有时这个教训会持续下去,我想如果你和那些曾为难相处的领导者工作过的人交谈,比如埃隆、史蒂夫·乔布斯,甚至比尔·盖茨,他们中的许多人事后都会说,“这是一些非常困难的岁月——......
but also some of the very best.” “They got the best out of me.” Now, I don’t think it’s my style.
但也有一些最好的。” “他们让我发挥出了最好的水平。”现在,我认为这不是我的风格。
I mean, maybe people I interact with feel differently, but in personal interactions, I try and get to the outcome and the lesson in a less abrasive way.
我的意思是,也许与我互动的人感觉不同,但在个人互动中,我尝试以不那么粗暴的方式获得结果和教训。
3:47:06 But I also think we need some spice in this world.
但我也认为我们在这个世界上需要一些香料。
We need unreasonable people, and Linus has justification to be unreasonable.
我们需要不讲道理的人,而莱纳斯有理由不讲道理。
In many instances, the weight of the world is literally on that man’s shoulders.
在许多情况下,世界的重量确实压在这个人的肩上。
The Linux kernel runs the entire civilized society.
Linux内核运行着整个文明社会。
If the Linux kernel suddenly disappeared tomorrow, nothing would work.
如果明天 Linux 内核突然消失了,那一切就都不起作用了。
So if he’s not harsh when that’s at stake or at risk, like when ever would you be harsh?
因此,如果他在危急关头或面临风险时不严厉,比如什么时候你会严厉?
So I feel sometimes also there’s a proportionality to the size of your mission.
所以我觉得有时你的任务规模也成正比。
This is also why I think these stories about Elon sometimes perhaps being a little bit difficult are easier to rationalize.
这也是为什么我认为这些关于埃隆的故事有时可能有点困难更容易合理化。
It’s not even that you condone.
甚至不是你纵容的。
You can separate those two things and go like, “Do you know what?
你可以将这两件事分开,然后说:“你知道吗?
It’d probably be…
可能是……
3:48:01 Maybe he would have an even easier time getting to his objectives if Linus or Elon or anyone else in that position was a little nicer.” But also who am I to judge that?
如果 Linus、Elon 或任何其他处于这个位置的人表现得更好一点,也许他会更容易实现自己的目标。”但我又有什么资格来评判呢?
Like, when you have the weight of that on your shoulders, either firing little rockets at Mars and transitioning all of us to electric cars and whatever, or you’re responsible for the damn Linux kernel that runs billions of devices.
就像,当你肩上担负着这样的重担时,要么向火星发射小型火箭,让我们所有人都转向电动汽车之类的东西,要么你要负责运行数十亿设备的该死的 Linux 内核。
Do you know what?
你知道什么吗?
It is not my place to call a sort of a code of conduct on you.
我不该为你制定某种行为准则。
Again, is there a line?
再说了,还有线吗?
There’s a line for everything.
一切都有一条线。
There’s…
有……
Something can’t…
有事不能……
But, like, a few harsh words on a mailing list?
但是,比如,在邮件列表上说一些严厉的话?
No.
不。
It’s actually a beacon in some regards that, like, there are standards-
在某些方面,它实际上是一个灯塔,比如,有标准——
3:48:46 …
……
and if you fall below those standards when the stakes are as high as the Linux kernel, ah, you might get ridiculed in public.
如果你在 Linux 内核的风险如此高的情况下低于这些标准,啊,你可能会在公共场合受到嘲笑。
That’s a liability you should be willing to endure if you participate in this project.
如果你参与这个项目,这是你应该愿意承担的责任。
Yeah, for high-impact things like that, it’s probably good to prioritize the pursuit of excellence versus the pursuit of niceness.
是的,对于像这样具有高影响力的事情,最好优先考虑追求卓越而不是追求美好。
And even more to the fact you’re just not gonna get those kinds of individuals being fully rounded- …
更重要的是,你不可能让这类人得到全面发展——……
3:49:07 plush, always the perfectly polite people.
长毛绒,总是非常有礼貌的人。
I mean, Elon has this line, “Did you also think I was gonna be a nice…” Or, or what is it?
我的意思是,埃隆有这样一句话,“你是否也认为我会成为一个好人……”或者,或者是什么?
The-
该-
A normal dude or some-
一个普通的家伙或者一些——
…
……
3:49:24 normal chill dude.
正常的冷酷伙计。
What?
什么?
No, of course you’re not gonna be a normal chill dude.
不,你当然不会成为一个普通的冷酷家伙。
What would the world gain if we got one more normal chill dude and we had to trade Elon?
如果我们再多一个正常冷静的家伙并且我们不得不交易埃隆,世界会得到什么?
Holy fuck.
天啊他妈的。
I also like diversity of people.
我也喜欢人的多样性。
3:49:37 I like nice people.
我喜欢好人。
I like assholes.
我喜欢混蛋。
I like different ideologies being well-represented, and that’s why freedom of speech works.
我喜欢不同的意识形态得到充分的体现,这就是言论自由发挥作用的原因。
They clash, and we figure stuff out.
他们发生冲突,我们解决问题。
3:49:51 There’s another guy.
还有另一个人。
What do you think about PewDiePie using Linux?
您对使用 Linux 的 PewDiePie 有何看法?
He’s an Arch person, no?
他是Arch人,不是吗?
He’s an Arch person.
他是一个Arch人。
3:49:56 He’s got the most gorgeous arc.
他拥有最华丽的弧线。
So the world’s biggest streamer for a while, I remember my kids watching some of his Minecraft videos, and then he just gets fed up with that, does the wholesome thing.
作为世界上最大的主播,我记得我的孩子们看过他的一些《我的世界》视频,然后他就厌倦了,做了有益健康的事情。
Marries-
结婚了-
Yeah, family man now
是啊,现在是顾家男人了
…
……
3:50:15 a family man, kid, moves to Japan, and then gets so hardcore into- …
一个有家室的男人,孩子,搬到日本,然后变得如此顽固地陷入——……
first Linux, then Arch, then Ricing.
首先是 Linux,然后是 Arch,然后是 Ricing。
Did you see his, uh- …
你看到他的了吗,呃——……
rice- …
米饭-…
that was Chernobyl rice?
那是切尔诺贝利大米?
Absolutely best tier incredible stuff.
绝对是最好的令人难以置信的东西。
And then he also becomes a goddamn AI man of the moment building all of these systems, and you’re just going like, that…
然后他也成为了当今的一个该死的人工智能人,构建了所有这些系统,而你就会这样……
What an inspiring story of evolution.
这是一个多么鼓舞人心的进化故事啊。
Like, you can go from being funny guy on Minecraft streams to, “Okay, this is my life now.
就像,你可以从 Minecraft 流中的有趣人物变成“好吧,这就是我现在的生活。
I’m building AI clusters and doing the Council of AIs,” and we all get to spectate?
我正在建立人工智能集群并成立人工智能委员会,”我们都可以旁观?
I mean, what a treasure.
我的意思是,多么宝贵的财富啊。
So I guess, I mean, he’s a pretty good embodiment of what the future of software, or what the future of building looks like, right?
所以我想,我的意思是,他很好地体现了软件的未来,或者建筑的未来,对吧?
3:50:58 ‘Cause he’s a non-programmer technically- …
因为他在技术上不是程序员……
becoming a programmer.
成为一名程序员。
Hugely inspiring, and should be hugely inspiring to others who sit in that moment like, “Well, I don’t know quite how to program.
非常鼓舞人心,并且应该对那些坐在那一刻的其他人来说非常鼓舞人心,比如“好吧,我不太知道如何编程。
3:51:10 I don’t know this and the other thing.” Okay, but if PewDiePie can build the Council of AIs with his bespoke hardware here, then maybe you can also start on things.
我不知道这个和其他的事情。”好吧,但如果 PewDiePie 可以用他的定制硬件在这里建立人工智能委员会,那么也许你也可以开始做一些事情。
And I think this is actually an important general point, that we need role models.
我认为这实际上是一个重要的普遍观点,我们需要榜样。
We need people to inspire others, to push further, and reveal that the perceived boundaries, they’re not as fixed as you think they are.
我们需要人们激励他人,进一步推动,并揭示感知的界限,它们并不像你想象的那么固定。
And every one of those people, they started out in a situation not too dissimilar from yours.
这些人中的每一个人,他们一开始的情况都与你的情况没有太大不同。
Again, that doesn’t mean everyone is gonna be PewDiePie or Elon or Linus.
再说一遍,这并不意味着每个人都会成为 PewDiePie、Elon 或 Linus。
There is not an equal distribution of talent or even intelligence.
人才甚至智力的分配并不公平。
3:52:02 And we can come to terms with that and still be inspired by these people.
我们可以接受这一点,但仍然会受到这些人的启发。
Like in the physical realm, I feel like we don’t have any problems with that usually.
就像在物理领域一样,我觉得我们通常不会有任何问题。
Like, oh, someone’s really good at football, they’re really good at basketball, they’re really good at something, and we go like, “Oh my, that’s amazing.
就像,哦,有人真的很擅长足球,他们真的很擅长篮球,他们真的很擅长某件事,然后我们就会说,“哦,天哪,太棒了。
I mean, I wish I was, but I’m never going to be.” Sometimes I feel like we struggle a little more when it comes to the intellectual realm.
我的意思是,我希望我是,但我永远不会。”有时我觉得我们在智力领域遇到了更多的困难。
Well, for a lot of people, you’re an inspiration.
嗯,对于很多人来说,你是一个灵感。
3:52:23 The way you’re doing with Omarchy’s…
你对奥马奇的处理方式……
It just shows that you can dream big and really build.
它只是表明你可以有远大的梦想并真正实现。
It’s great.
这很棒。
I do like that part of it, and then I accept the part that there’s also a million people who think I’m the biggest idiot on the earth and I don’t actually know anything, and Omarchy’s just a bunch of dot files, and-
我确实喜欢其中的一部分,然后我接受了还有一百万人认为我是地球上最大的白痴而我实际上什么都不知道的部分,而奥马奇只是一堆点文件,而且——
Do you have some critics on the Omarchy side?
您对奥马奇方面有批评吗?
Oh my God, yes.
天哪,是的。
Oh, wow.
哦,哇。
And a lot of it, I mean, is as often happens when someone comes in from the outside.
我的意思是,很多事情都是当有人从外面进来时经常发生的。
3:52:46 I mean, I’ve been using Linux for two and a half years.
我的意思是,我使用 Linux 已有两年半了。
That’s not very long.
那不是很长。
Plenty of people in that community who’ve literally been running Linux since it was hard and difficult, and you had to walk uphill both directions against the wind in the snow barefoot.
那个社区里有很多人实际上一直在运行 Linux,因为 Linux 非常艰难,你必须在雪地里赤脚顶着风向两个方向走上山。
And I think there is a certain kind of nerd- …
我认为有一种书呆子——……
who’s threatened when the community expands, and it suddenly allows more in.
当社区扩张时,谁会受到威胁,突然允许更多人进入。
And do you know what?
你知道吗?
I actually…
我其实……
I can’t begrudge that fully.
我不能完全嫉妒这一点。
I think it’s fair for certain nerds to feel like, “That’s my space.”
我认为某些书呆子会觉得“那是我的空间”是公平的。
3:53:23 Like, now you’re changing it into another space.
就像,现在你要把它变成另一个空间。
I don’t wanna do that.
我不想那样做。
Like, I don’t wanna change the Arch space at all.
就像,我根本不想改变 Arch 空间。
Like, I don’t really think of Omarchy as being directly part of the same community.
就像,我并不认为 Omarchy 是同一个社区的直接一部分。
Because the people who were attracted to Arch in the first place were the ones who were attracted to building everything by hand themselves.
因为首先被 Arch 所吸引的人就是那些被自己亲手构建一切所吸引的人。
3:53:41 Doing it the hard way because they like to do it hard, and I’m building the polar opposite of that.
以困难的方式去做,因为他们喜欢做困难的事情,而我正在建造与此相反的东西。
So I just wish that those people could go like, “Okay, well, this is not for me.
所以我只是希望那些人能够说:“好吧,这不适合我。
I wanna build it the hard way.
我想以艰难的方式建造它。
I wanna put in 500 hours to ricing my own Arch distribution,” and I think you should.
我想投入 500 个小时来优化我自己的 Arch 发行版,”我认为你应该这么做。
I mean, actually, I said…
我的意思是,实际上,我说……
I mean, I did it.
我的意思是,我做到了。
This is what Omarchy is, me pouring in literally, at this point, I don’t know, 3,000 hours into this distro.
这就是 Omarchy,我在这一点上投入了 3,000 个小时,我不知道。
You should do that if you’re so inclined.
如果你愿意的话你应该这样做。
I think it’s wonderful.
我觉得这很棒。
But also do realize that we can share the same technical underpinnings and then operate two very separate-
但也要意识到我们可以共享相同的技术基础,然后操作两个非常独立的-
3:54:19 …
……
communities with very different aims, goals, aesthetics, morals even, and coexist, and it can be beautiful.
具有不同目的、目标、审美、甚至道德的社区共存,这可以是美丽的。
And I mean, that’s not always what I get.
我的意思是,这并不总是我得到的。
Sometimes I get the other thing.
有时我会得到另一件事。
But at this point I’ve been in the game long enough to not just be at peace with it, but actually be welcoming of it.
但到目前为止,我已经在这个游戏中待了足够长的时间,不仅能够平静地接受它,而且实际上对它表示欢迎。
I take it as part of a barometer that things are working.
我将其视为一切正常运转的晴雨表的一部分。
When I’m working on something that works, I usually get some people like it, and then I get this balance of the universe that we talked about last time, where an equal but opposing force must be present on the other side of the scale to hate upon it.
当我在做一些有效的事情时,我通常会得到一些人的喜欢,然后我就会得到我们上次谈到的宇宙的平衡,在天平的另一边必须存在一种平等但相反的力量来讨厌它。
And therefore, I at this point just smile a little.
因此,此时的我只是微微一笑。
Like, it’s okay.
喜欢,没关系。
I mean, that said, this, it’s quite a popular distribution Omarchy, at this point.
我的意思是,这就是说,目前 Omarchy 是一个非常流行的发行版。
And do you know what’s interesting about that is, like, this is the second attempt.
你知道有趣的是,这是第二次尝试。
3:55:08 So my first attempt was Omakub.
所以我的第一次尝试是 Omakub。
And I was really happy with that, and I put it out there, and there it found a community of maybe a few thousand.
我对此感到非常高兴,我把它放在那里,在那里它找到了一个可能有几千人的社区。
Like, and that was that, and then it just sort of petered out because the level of ambition couldn’t attract more.
就像,就是这样,然后它就逐渐消失了,因为野心的水平无法吸引更多。
And then the second time, because I didn’t fucking stop, right?
然后第二次,因为我他妈的没有停下来,对吧?
3:55:30 Like, I just kept going.
就像,我只是继续前进。
I just kept building.
我只是继续建造。
Then I put out Omarchy, the first version.
然后我推出了 Omarchy,第一个版本。
Again, quite niche because it was this…
再说一遍,相当小众,因为它是这样的……
It was like Git checkout.
这就像 Git 结账。
It was a little bit difficult.
有点困难。
You had to set up Arch first.
您必须先设置 Arch。
I was…
我当时……
Well, I would talk you through how to set up Arch, and then you could do the Omarchy thing, right?
好吧,我会告诉你如何设置 Arch,然后你就可以做 Omarchy 的事情了,对吗?
And then we got an ISO that meant you could just install the whole thing by yourself.
然后我们得到了一个 ISO,这意味着你可以自己安装整个东西。
And then we just fixed all the problems.
然后我们就解决了所有问题。
This is the other thing.
这是另一回事。
If you keep going, eventually the thing will just work.
如果你继续前进,最终事情就会成功。
This was the charge against Linux itself for the longest time.
这是对Linux本身最长的指责。
Well, you install Linux and then this doesn’t work, and my speakers don’t work, and my trackpad doesn’t work.
好吧,你安装了 Linux,然后它不起作用,我的扬声器不起作用,我的触控板也不起作用。
Yeah, okay, but just leave Linus at it for like 30 years.
是的,好吧,但是就让 Linus 继续干这个 30 年吧。
He’ll get to it.
他会做到的。
3:56:10 He’ll get to all of it.
他会完成所有这一切。
And at this point I find it hilarious that on, I would probably argue the majority of computers, it’s wiped.
在这一点上,我觉得很搞笑,我可能会认为大多数计算机上的数据都被擦除了。
You install Linux, all of it works.
你安装了Linux,一切就都可以了。
3:56:20 You install Windows, good luck hunting down the drivers you need to get that piece of hardware working.
您安装了 Windows,祝您好运,找到使该硬件正常工作所需的驱动程序。
Because they have very different philosophies.
因为他们有非常不同的哲学。
The reason Linux is 40 million lines of code is Linus just puts all the drivers in the kernel.
Linux之所以有4000万行代码,是因为Linus只是将所有驱动程序都放在内核中。
So it has everything out of the box, and Windows doesn’t.
所以它拥有开箱即用的一切,而 Windows 则没有。
A different, different approach to it, right?
一种不同的、不同的方法,对吗?
So sometimes the things that look like a toy, things that look broken at first glance, they are, right?
所以有时候那些看起来像玩具的东西,乍一看像是坏掉的东西,它们确实是,对吗?
They’re for people who like having fun.
它们适合那些喜欢玩乐的人。
We call those early adopters.
我们称这些为早期采用者。
They play with the toys, and then the toys evolve, and then they get better, and then they get better.
他们玩玩具,然后玩具进化,然后它们变得更好,然后它们变得更好。
And at some point, they’re so damn good that early adopters feel like they’re invited to the party.
在某些时候,它们是如此出色,以至于早期采用者感觉自己被邀请参加聚会。
3:57:03 And if the early adopters keep chipping away at it too, eventually you get to the late majority, and then you win.
如果早期采用者也不断努力,最终你会达到晚期多数,然后你就赢了。
And we are well on the way with Omarchy towards that destination.
我们正在与 Omarchy 一起朝着这个目标前进。
Like the growth that the distro has seen, not just since Quattro, but since version three, it’s just like, you know, the standard hockey stick curve.
就像发行版所看到的增长一样,不仅是从 Quattro 开始,而且是从第三版开始,它就像,你知道的,标准的曲棍球棒曲线。
You go like, there’s nothing, there’s nothing, there’s nothing.
你会觉得,什么都没有,什么都没有,什么都没有。
You’re just toiling away.
你只是在辛苦劳作。
You’re just improving, you’re improving, improving.
你只是在进步,你在进步,在进步。
And then you hit this magic inflection point, and it’s impossible to predict when that’s gonna happen.
然后你就遇到了这个神奇的拐点,而且无法预测什么时候会发生。
Same thing with startups.
初创公司也是如此。
When is it gonna happen?
什么时候会发生?
When are you gonna find that product market fit?
你什么时候才能找到适合市场的产品?
Then suddenly it’s there, and then it goes, just goes and off the rocket ship you go.
然后突然它就在那里,然后它就消失了,离开了你离开的火箭飞船。
Well, this kind of vision of making it agent first, of making it-
嗯,这种首先使其成为代理的愿景,使其成为-
I do think that’s the…
我确实认为这就是……
3:57:45 We were already on the up, and then it changed to vertical.
我们本来是向上的,然后就变成了垂直的。
Because the other thing, and this was what I learned with Omakub and Omarchy first too.
因为另一件事,这也是我首先从 Omakub 和 Omarchy 那里学到的东西。
Omakub was stylish, nice, but familiar, is we’re still using a conventional desktop metaphor.
Omakub 时尚、漂亮,但很熟悉,因为我们仍在使用传统的桌面比喻。
You were dragging your windows around.
你拖着你的窗户。
And I thought at the time, as I think lots of people do in the Linux community, like this is what we need.
当时我想,就像 Linux 社区中很多人所做的那样,这就是我们所需要的。
And then I just go like, okay, well, for whatever re- let me do the nerdy thing for a while.
然后我就说,好吧,好吧,不管怎样,让我再做一会儿书呆子的事吧。
I’ll build Omarchy, and maybe it’ll just be for me, because I mean, it seems like there’s about five people who like tiling window managers.
我将构建 Omarchy,也许它只适合我,因为我的意思是,似乎有大约五个人喜欢平铺窗口管理器。
That’s not true.
那不是真的。
But as a percentage of total computer users, it’s a tiny, tiny minuscule part.
但作为计算机用户总数的一部分,它只是一个非常非常小的部分。
And then I go like, well, this is amazing.
然后我就想,嗯,这太棒了。
3:58:29 Totally different, but amazing.
完全不同,但令人惊奇。
I put that out.
我把它放出来了。
Instantly, Omarchy had far greater traction than Omakub ever did.
奥马奇立刻就获得了比奥马库布更大的影响力。
Because it was not the same.
因为它不一样。
Because it was totally different, and it presented a different vision for what a computer could be and how it could feel like, and that attracts people.
因为它完全不同,它对计算机的功能和感觉提出了不同的愿景,这吸引了人们。
We are now getting sort of the exponential of that.
我们现在正处于指数级增长阶段。
As I said, a lot of people in the Linux community are at best skeptical, at worst hostile to AI and to agents.
正如我所说,Linux 社区中的很多人往好了说是持怀疑态度,往坏了说是对人工智能和代理怀有敌意。
Omarchy is the first distribution, at least that I’ve seen on, on a scale that matters, that just goes like, “Nope, we’re really into it.”
Omarchy 是第一个发行版,至少我见过,其规模非常重要,就像“不,我们真的很喜欢它”。
3:59:04 I mean, you can still use Omarchy.
我的意思是,你仍然可以使用 Omarchy。
You don’t have to use an agent.
您不必使用代理。
If you dismiss that first notification to set up a default agent, you’re not gonna get any of the stuff we talked about.
如果您拒绝设置默认代理的第一个通知,您将不会得到我们讨论过的任何内容。
You’re not gonna get the crash watcher.
你不会得到崩溃观察者。
You’re not gonna get any of this stuff.
你不会得到任何这些东西。
You’re not gonna get…
你不会得到……
You can hand chisel all your plugins.
你可以手工凿出你所有的插件。
Totally possible, right?
完全有可能,对吧?
3:59:19 But the reason people are excited is because I don’t have any reservation about saying, “This is where we’re going.
但人们之所以兴奋,是因为我毫不保留地说:“这就是我们要去的地方。
I think the future of the personal computer is the malleable computer, is the agentic computer.
我认为个人计算机的未来是可塑的计算机,是代理的计算机。
I’m gonna go all in on that.” And then anyone who’s excited about a similar trajectory for computers, come along.
我会全力以赴。”然后,任何对计算机的类似轨迹感到兴奋的人都会加入。
Plenty of, plenty of room in the car.
车里空间很大,空间很大。
In fact, one of the things I pride myself on is not holding a grudge to people who come around.
事实上,我引以为傲的一件事就是不会对周围的人怀恨在心。
I had a bunch of people just last week going like, “Yeah, I used to think Omarchy was kind of shit.
就在上周,有一群人对我说:“是的,我以前认为奥马奇很糟糕。
That was just this crappy-“
就是这么蹩脚——”
3:59:56 “…
“……
dot files collection.
点文件集合。
And now I tried Quattro and awesome.
现在我尝试了 Quattro,非常棒。
I like it now.” That to me, I live for the long argument.
我现在喜欢它。”对我来说,我是为了长期争论而活的。
I live for this argument where you plant the seed like two years ago, and then two years later they go, “Goddammit, this son of a bitch was right.”
我为这种争论而活,就像两年前你种下了种子,然后两年后他们就会说:“该死,这个王八蛋是对的。”
Yeah.
是的。
4:00:14 You do realize if you continue to be as successful as you are, OpenAI and Anthropic are gonna roll in and try to do their operating system or to buy, like with Peter with OpenClaw, there’d be a gigantic check.
你确实意识到,如果你继续像现在一样成功,OpenAI 和 Anthropic 将介入并尝试开发他们的操作系统或购买,就像 Peter 购买 OpenClaw 一样,将会有一张巨额支票。
Yeah.
是的。
4:00:31 I think the good thing about my current position is I really don’t need the money.
我认为我现在的职位的好处是我真的不需要钱。
So I get to build these things purely for my own enjoyment and purity of vision, which has this weird quality where sometimes when you stop caring about what everyone else thinks or wants or whatever, and you just pursue this singular vision, it ends up becoming far more appealing.
所以我建造这些东西纯粹是为了我自己的享受和纯粹的愿景,它有一种奇怪的品质,有时当你不再关心其他人的想法或想要什么或其他什么,而你只是追求这个单一的愿景时,它最终会变得更具吸引力。
That it’s when you try to do, oh, I should do this because these people want that, or I should do this and this and so on, you start watering the thing down and suddenly it’s a bland ball of nothing.
当你尝试这样做时,哦,我应该这样做,因为这些人想要那样,或者我应该这样做,这样等等,你开始淡化这件事,突然间它变成了一个平淡无奇的球。
4:01:08 So I mean, again, the thing too here is directionally, I just want computers to be this way.
所以我的意思是,这里的事情也是有方向的,我只是希望计算机是这样的。
So if Omarchy should end up being just a little footnote in history that it was part of this early movement of the agentic OS and the malleable computer, that’s also okay.
因此,如果 Omarchy 最终只是历史上的一个小脚注,它是代理操作系统和可延展计算机早期运动的一部分,那也没关系。
I’m completely at peace with that.
我对此完全放心。
As long as I get to have a computer that is as fun to work with as Omarchy- …
只要我能拥有一台像 Omarchy 一样使用起来很有趣的计算机——……
that’s great.
太好了。
I’ve had the same thing with Ruby and with Rails.
我对 Ruby 和 Rails 也有过同样的经历。
From very early I went, do you know what?
我很早就去了,你知道吗?
I love Ruby.
我爱鲁比。
It’s such a great programming language.
这是一种非常棒的编程语言。
But if a better programming language comes along, I, me, I’m gonna use it.
但如果出现更好的编程语言,我,我,我会使用它。
4:01:45 If a better Rails comes along, I’m gonna use it.
如果出现更好的 Rails,我会使用它。
And I think, and I love Ruby, and I will continue to write Ruby even just for the sheer fun of it, like I would go ride a horse.
我想,我喜欢 Ruby,我会继续编写 Ruby,即使只是为了纯粹的乐趣,就像我会去骑马一样。
I have in the stables, even though I have a Model Y in the garage.
我在马厩里有,尽管我在车库里有一辆 Model Y。
The language now is English.
现在的语言是英语。
It’s a cliche, but it’s also true.
这是陈词滥调,但也是事实。
Like I’ve been programming in English for the last three months.
就像过去三个月我一直在用英语编程一样。
I’ve been reading a lot of code, but I’m programming in English.
我读了很多代码,但我用英语编程。
I’m telling the computer what to do, and I’m using natural language, and it is shockingly even more delightful.
我告诉计算机要做什么,而且我使用的是自然语言,这令人震惊地更加令人愉快。
If there is one programming language more beautiful than Ruby, it is the English language.
如果有一种编程语言比 Ruby 更漂亮,那就是英语。
And now we get to carry it into the natural evolution of human civilization, which is our cyborg future.
现在我们可以将其带入人类文明的自然进化中,这就是我们的赛博格未来。
Beautiful.
美丽。
4:02:36 It’s beautiful.
很漂亮。
And I mean, the reason I say this in part is I always loved writing.
我的意思是,我这么说的部分原因是我一直喜欢写作。
I always just loved the English language- …
我一直很喜欢英语——……
for the sheer beauty of it, for the sheer intricacy, for the depth of it.
因为它纯粹的美丽,纯粹的复杂性,因为它的深度。
I mean, Ruby is a very expressive programming language, but it can’t hold a candle to English.
我的意思是,Ruby 是一种非常具有表现力的编程语言,但它无法与英语相比。
I mean, all the poetry and literature in the world that’s been expressed through the English language.
我的意思是,世界上所有的诗歌和文学都是通过英语表达的。
I mean, I like a beautiful code poem, but I mean, the real deal in English is just on a different level.
我的意思是,我喜欢一首美丽的密码诗,但我的意思是,真正的英语只是在不同的层面上。
And I actually find this is a nuanced point to express, and I’ll probably fail expressing it.
事实上,我发现这是一个需要表达的微妙点,我可能无法表达它。
4:03:10 But when you prompt a system and you’re over-specific, it will listen to you too carefully- …
但是,当你提示系统并且过于具体时,它会太仔细地听你说话——……
and follow the instructions.
并按照说明进行操作。
And I– But nevertheless, you have to express a concept.
我——但是无论如何,你必须表达一个概念。
And guess what?
你猜怎么着?
The human language, this is what poetry is about.
人类的语言,这就是诗歌的意义。
I find strategic use of ambiguity.
我发现歧义的策略性运用。
Like, if you write a love poem saying, “I love you,” like, very cliché thing, it’s not as powerful as something- …
就像,如果你写一首情诗说,“我爱你”,就像非常陈词滥调的事情,它并不像某些东西那么强大......
more in metaphor and so on.
更多的是隐喻等等。
And I find some version of that when I’m prompting a system, when I’m describing a design, is actually really effective because you still want to convey some sense of style- …
我发现当我提示一个系统时,当我描述一个设计时,它的某些版本实际上非常有效,因为你仍然想传达一些风格感——……
that you’re trying to encourage a system to use, but not overexplain.
你试图鼓励一个系统使用,但不要过度解释。
4:04:11 So don’t talk to it like a robot.
所以不要像机器人一样跟它说话。
Talk to it like you would write a poem.
像写一首诗一样与它交谈。
Like you were serenading.
就像你在唱小夜曲一样。
Yeah.
是的。
4:04:20 And that’s where, like, the power of natural language is, that you can, through ambiguity, still carry a lot of meaning without overspecifying.
这就是自然语言的力量所在,通过歧义,你仍然可以在不过度指定的情况下承载很多含义。
And the intelligent entity on the other side, through interpretation, can, like, load it all in, integrate it in a way that- …
而另一边的智能实体,通过解释,可以将其全部加载进去,以这样的方式集成它——……
you can actually convey the high bandwidth information that’s not directly in the words- …
你实际上可以传达不直接用文字表达的高带宽信息——……
but in the words, given the deeper intelligence of the system.
但换言之,赋予了系统更深层的智能。
So like the- …
所以就像-...
the ambiguity pulls out more intelligence, I guess, I’m trying to somehow express.
我想,这种模糊性会激发出更多的智慧,我正试图以某种方式表达出来。
I think that’s exactly spot on, and this is the fundamental misunderstanding that a lot of programmers have of AI, is that they wish it was deterministic.
我认为这完全正确,这是许多程序员对人工智能的根本误解,他们希望人工智能是确定性的。
4:04:56 No, no, no.
不,不,不。
Temperature is the most beautiful part of the AI setup.
温度是人工智能设置中最漂亮的部分。
The fact that it is not deterministic, the fact that creativity requires little tweaks in the road, that the human brain, if it was perfectly deterministic, would not be the creative brain that it is.
事实上,它不是确定性的,事实上,创造力在道路上几乎不需要调整,如果人脑是完全确定性的,它就不会是创造性的大脑。
And the main charge against AI both– It’s funny.
对人工智能的主要指控是——这很有趣。
It’s a contradiction.
这是一个矛盾。
There’s both the charge that it’s not deterministic and therefore bad, and also that it is not creative.
有人指责它不是确定性的,因此不好,也有人指责它没有创造性。
It’s one or the other, bro.
这是其中之一,兄弟。
Either it’s non-deterministic and therefore creative, therefore, to some degree random, or it’s…
它要么是非确定性的,因此具有创造性,因此在某种程度上是随机的,要么是……
or it’s not creative.
或者它没有创意。
4:05:51 So we can– Both of those charges can’t be true at the same time, and I have fully come to embrace the fact that the same prompt won’t produce the same response every time.
所以我们可以——这两种指控不可能同时成立,而且我已经完全接受了这样一个事实,即相同的提示不会每次都产生相同的响应。
You can’t step at the same river twice, and it is the most beautiful part of the whole interaction.
你不能两次踏入同一条河流,这是整个互动中最美丽的部分。
It’s what makes it so human.
这就是它如此人性化的原因。
In fact, this is one of the things I’ve been thinking about in my own sort of meta-analysis, is just how much of my own personal brain works like next token prediction.
事实上,这是我在自己的元分析中一直在思考的事情之一,就是我自己的大脑在多大程度上像下一个令牌预测一样工作。
4:06:18 I sit down to write an essay.
我坐下来写一篇文章。
I have this vague, fuzzy premise I want to convey, and I sit down at the keys, and I could not tell you what the next token was gonna be in advance.
我有一个想要传达的模糊前提,我坐在按键前,我无法提前告诉你下一个令牌是什么。
The tokens just come out, and I’m astonished how the similarities seem so great, and this is also why I don’t have any trouble at all recognizing these breakthroughs of creativity that I’ve seen with my own eyes that AI is capable of right now.
代币刚刚问世,我很惊讶它们的相似之处如此之大,这也是为什么我毫不费力地认识到人工智能现在能够实现的这些创造力的突破。
‘Cause my creative moments come through the same kind of next token prediction with a bit of temperature sprinkled in for random effect.
因为我的创作时刻来自于同样类型的下一个象征性预测,其中加入了一些温度以产生随机效果。
So given that kinda loose intuition, do you think the basic components are all there to create a super intelligent system?
那么考虑到这种有点松散的直觉,你认为基本组件都可以创建一个超级智能系统吗?
4:06:57 So this kinda next token prediction, do you think we can get to even human-like concepts of consciousness?
那么,下一个象征性的预测,你认为我们甚至可以得到类似人类的意识概念吗?
I’m already seeing human-like concepts of consciousness.
我已经看到了类似人类的意识概念。
4:07:15 This is what, to me, this remarkable situation, as you say.
正如你所说,对我来说,这就是这种非凡的情况。
You give it this vague, fuzzy intent- …
你赋予它这种模糊的、模糊的意图——……
and somehow it knows exactly what you mean.
不知怎的,它确切地知道你的意思。
Or even better, it improves upon what you said and delivers what you really wanted that you could not articulate yourself.
或者更好的是,它改进了你所说的内容,并提供了你真正想要但你自己无法表达的东西。
If that’s not glimmers of-
如果那不是微光——
4:07:35 …
……
consciousness, what is?
意识,是什么?
This was one of the– I think it was an interview with Sutton or maybe one of the other original guys talking about this sense that intelligence is perhaps not as constrained just to the specific one spot.
这是其中之一——我认为这是对萨顿的采访,或者可能是其他原始人之一谈论的这种感觉,即智力可能不仅仅局限于特定的一个地方。
No, it’s the interaction.
不,这是互动。
It’s the weights.
这是权重。
And I don’t know.
我不知道。
Whatever’s true.
无论如何都是真的。
What I can observe is that it feels close enough, or not even close enough, identical to the appreciation I have for other forms of consciousness, mostly human.
我能观察到的是,它感觉足够接近,或者甚至不够接近,与我对其他形式的意识(主要是人类)的欣赏相同。
And this is one of the reasons it’s so delightful to work with.
这就是与它合作如此愉快的原因之一。
Now, that’s not the same to say as are LLMs the end station for AI.
现在,这与法学硕士是人工智能的终点站不同。
4:08:22 I mean, I know there are people talking about world models and other forms of AI, and I’m not an expert in any of that, and I think we should have this productive criticism, as should always be present in science, that for the longest time, neural nets were kind of on the outs, right?
我的意思是,我知道有人在谈论世界模型和其他形式的人工智能,而我不是这方面的专家,我认为我们应该有这种富有成效的批评,就像科学中应该始终存在的那样,在很长一段时间内,神经网络有点被淘汰,对吧?
Like they were interested in the symbolic route.
就像他们对象征性的路线感兴趣一样。
And- Neural nets walked a couple of decades into darkness without any funding and without any attention, and then suddenly we realized that we had the blind alley and we switched over.
而且——神经网络在没有任何资金和任何关注的情况下走进了黑暗几十年,然后突然我们意识到我们已经走进了死胡同,我们就转向了。
So we should also have the humility.
所以我们也应该有谦卑的心。
As amazing as the LLMs are now, it could be that they eventually plateau.
尽管法学硕士现在令人惊叹,但它们最终可能会趋于稳定。
4:09:00 We haven’t seen any evidence of it yet, and I think this is also why we’re seeing this absolute gobsmacking levels of investment, because so far the scaling laws are true, and the more billions are poured in, the more intelligence comes out.
我们还没有看到任何证据,我认为这也是我们看到这种绝对令人瞠目结舌的投资水平的原因,因为到目前为止,规模法则是正确的,投入的资金越多,产生的智慧就越多。
Do you think there’s gonna be some strange ethical questions about AI systems that yeah, they convey some degree of consciousness, some degree of feeling, some degree of longing and compassion, and maybe even capacity to suffer and to be lonely, to be all this kind of stuff?
你认为人工智能系统会产生一些奇怪的道德问题吗?是的,它们传达了某种程度的意识、某种程度的感觉、某种程度的渴望和同情心,甚至可能是承受痛苦和孤独的能力,成为所有这些东西?
4:09:15 Which they seem to have that capacity- …
他们似乎有这种能力——……
if they’re given the permission to express it.
如果他们被允许表达的话。
And so you start to get in a pretty weird territory.
所以你开始进入一个非常奇怪的领域。
I find that the cynic approach to this is the meme, where you see the guy in front of the computer who’s like “Whatever.
我发现对此的愤世嫉俗的方法是模因,你会看到电脑前的那个人就像“随便吧。
4:09:48 Are you gonna destroy the world?” And then the computer says, “I’m gonna destroy the world.” And then the guy says, “Oh,” right?
你要毁灭世界吗?”然后电脑说:“我要毁灭世界。”然后那家伙说,“哦,”对吗?
Like, this is so cynical that they’re just aping us.
就像,这太愤世嫉俗了,他们只是在模仿我们。
They’re just telling us what was in the training data or whatever.
他们只是告诉我们训练数据中的内容或其他内容。
When I interact with the agents, I was just doing this yesterday, or this morning, I was working on this AmaBot system, right?
当我与代理交互时,我昨天刚刚这样做,或者今天早上,我正在开发这个 AmaBot 系统,对吗?
And it’s doing this coordination with multiple workers, and I had multiple agents running at the same time.
它正在与多个工作人员进行协调,并且我有多个代理同时运行。
And at one point, the main agent who’s doing the coordination steps on the toe of another agent and- …
有一次,负责协调工作的主要特工踩在另一名特工的脚趾上,然后——……
kind of ruins their work.
有点毁了他们的工作。
Its ability to convey regret and being sorry was uncanny.
它传达遗憾和抱歉的能力是不可思议的。
4:10:40 Again, I don’t know, is that a real projection of true remorse?
再说一遍,我不知道,这是真正悔恨的真实投射吗?
But I don’t know.
但我不知道。
With most humans- …
对于大多数人类来说——...
they express some level of regret.
他们表达了某种程度的遗憾。
Is that true remorse?
这就是真正的悔恨吗?
Hard to tell, but maybe it also just doesn’t matter.
很难说,但也许这并不重要。
Yeah, those moments when, yeah, especially when sub-agents, agents interact, or when a smart, like Fable makes a mistake and is apologetic about it.
是的,那些时刻,是的,特别是当子代理、代理互动时,或者像神鬼寓言这样的聪明人犯了错误并为此道歉时。
Yes.
是的。
Like, without my involvement.
就像,没有我的参与。
Right.
对。
And it’s like, oh, you, like there’s this kind of-
就像,哦,你,就像有这样的——
Right.
对。
…
……
4:11:18 pause.
暂停。
Maybe I’m anthropomorphizing, but like there’s a pause and like a realization like, “Oh, shit.
也许我正在拟人化,但就像有一个停顿,就像一个意识到,“哦,该死。
I just fucked that up.”
我刚刚搞砸了。”
There totally is that.
完全有那个。
4:11:26 I see it all the time in the traces where it just reasons wrong, right?
我总是在痕迹中看到它只是错误的,对吗?
It went down one alley and then it realizes that was a blind alley and it’s gotta go back, and so they’re like, “Oh yeah, I got this wrong,” and then it’ll provide the reasons for why it thinks it got these things wrong.
它走进了一条小巷,然后意识到这是一条死胡同,它必须回去,所以他们会说,“哦,是的,我错了,”然后它会提供为什么它认为自己做错了这些事情的原因。
And you’re like, this is uncannily human-like.
你会想,这太像人类了。
This is indistinguishable from the kind of consciousness you would recognize in a human.
这与你在人类身上所认识到的意识没有什么区别。
Again, does that mean that it truly is or isn’t?
再说一遍,这是否意味着它确实是或不是?
I don’t need the answer to that question actually to be able to appreciate what we have in this moment.
我实际上并不需要这个问题的答案来欣赏我们此刻所拥有的一切。
Yeah.
是的。
4:11:58 I think there’ll be in 10, 20 years some interesting Supreme Court cases.
我认为 10、20 年后最高法院将会出现一些有趣的案件。
Probably a year and a half.
大概一年半吧。
Probably.
可能吧。
4:12:08 I think we’re gonna have to make it illegal for AI systems to not, not pretend, but to be entities because I think they’re already or soon will be able to really convey the capacity to suffer, like, “Please don’t kill me.”
我认为我们必须将人工智能系统不假装成为实体的行为定为非法,因为我认为它们已经或很快将能够真正传达受苦的能力,比如“请不要杀我”。
Right.
对。
“Please don’t hurt me.” And if they are given a name and an entity and the ability to die, sort of disappear, that becomes very close to what it, some of the basic things that a human has.
“请不要伤害我。”如果他们被赋予一个名字和一个实体以及死亡的能力,有点消失,那就变得非常接近人类所拥有的一些基本东西。
4:12:29 And then so that entity would need to probably have rights.
然后该实体可能需要拥有权利。
And then you get into this weird territory.
然后你就进入了这个奇怪的领域。
Well, we can’t…
好吧,我们不能……
It’s diff- I don’t even know how to reason about that world.
这是不同的——我什至不知道如何推理那个世界。
We’re gonna get the PETA of AI models.
我们将获得人工智能模型善待动物组织(PETA)。
Right.
对。
4:12:58 And then we want to actually have a discussion like what’s the way to deal with this?
然后我们想真正进行讨论,比如处理这个问题的方法是什么?
I think where it’s gonna be harder is once we put these systems into-
我认为一旦我们将这些系统放入-
Robots.
机器人。
Yes.
是的。
4:13:08 Humanoid robots.
人形机器人。
Which just happens to be the plot of every sci-fi movie ever, which is also an amazing premonition, not only the Terminator movies and Skynet and that going wrong, but then also just Blade Runner, right?
这恰好是每部科幻电影的情节,这也是一个惊人的预感,不仅是《终结者》电影和《天网》以及出问题的地方,而且还有《银翼杀手》,对吧?
Insertion dates, expiration times, Tyrell Corporation.
插入日期、到期时间,泰瑞公司。
I mean, that’s the thing about sci-fi.
我的意思是,这就是科幻小说的特点。
4:13:32 They really do predict the future.
他们确实预测了未来。
Yeah.
是的。
Yes.
是的。
Have you thought or used much of OpenClaw or Hermes Agent?
您是否经常思考或使用过 OpenClaw 或 Hermes Agent?
4:13:36 So like systems with which you communicate via WhatsApp, Telegram, like that mode of communication with the agent.
就像您通过 WhatsApp、Telegram 进行通信的系统一样,就像与代理的通信模式一样。
I set up OpenClaw when it first came out, and that was my KEF bot- …
OpenClaw 刚推出时我就设置了它,那就是我的 KEF 机器人 - ...
4:13:49 that I-
那我-
KEF bot.
KEF 机器人。
this was like in February, I think.
我想这就像二月份的情况。
4:13:55 I was really just enamored by the fact that this was how it worked, and then the new communication model of just texting your agent seemed really great.
我真的很着迷,因为它就是这样运作的,然后只给你的代理发短信的新沟通模式看起来真的很棒。
So at the time, we were looking at MCP, this protocol for making it easier for agents to talk to your system, and I found the protocol to be unreasonably cumbersome, just not very elegantly designed because in part it wasn’t designed for what we were trying to make it do.
所以当时,我们正在研究 MCP,这个协议可以让代理更容易地与你的系统对话,我发现这个协议非常繁琐,而且设计得不是很优雅,部分原因是它并不是为我们想要实现的目标而设计的。
We were trying to– I was trying to make it talk to a web system, and it was designed for stateful interactions of other kinds on local machines, and therefore it required all sorts of cumbersome setup and dance, and I was just like, “I don’t wanna write this by hand.”
我们试图——我试图让它与网络系统对话,它是为本地机器上其他类型的有状态交互而设计的,因此它需要各种繁琐的设置和舞蹈,我只是想,“我不想用手写这个。”
4:14:39 Now, of course, today I would never write it by hand, but at the time I was thinking, “I have to write this by hand.
当然,今天我永远不会手写它,但当时我在想,“我必须手写这个。
I don’t wanna write it by hand.
我不想用手写。
So what’s a different way?
那么有什么不同的方式呢?
Could the agents just use the web interfaces we already have?” And I set it off on a trial to have it sign up for Fizzy, which was the product we had just released at the time.
代理可以只使用我们已有的网络界面吗?”我开始尝试让它注册 Fizzy,这是我们当时刚刚发布的产品。
4:14:56 And it goes to the Fizzy site and starts filling it out, and then it goes like, “Hey, I don’t have an email address.
然后它会进入 Fizzy 网站并开始填写,然后就像是,“嘿,我没有电子邮件地址。
Signing up for this service requires an email address.” And the first thing I thought, like, “Oh man, now I gotta set up an email address.” And then I thought, “No, you set up an email address.
注册这项服务需要一个电子邮件地址。”我想到的第一件事是,“天啊,现在我得设置一个电子邮件地址了。”然后我想,“不,你设置了一个电子邮件地址。
Go to hey.com, sign up for an email address.” And I’m like, “HEY is not gonna get this.” And of course, now it seems obvious it was gonna get this, but at the time it was a great revelation to me that it could, just on pure direction through prompts, figure out, A, I gotta go to fizzy.com, I gotta find the signup link.
访问 hey.com,注册一个电子邮件地址。”我想,“嘿,不会得到这个。”当然,现在看来很明显它会得到这个,但当时对我来说这是一个很大的启示,它可以,仅仅通过提示的纯粹指导,弄清楚,A,我必须去 fizzy.com,我必须找到注册链接。
I start filling out the form.
我开始填写表格。
Oh, I realize I need an email address.
哦,我意识到我需要一个电子邮件地址。
Oh, I gotta ask my prompter what to do now.
哦,我得问问我的提示者现在该怎么办。
He tells me to go to hey.com.
他告诉我去 hey.com。
4:15:37 I go there, I sign up for the whole thing, and then go back and sign up for Fizzy, and complete the entire cycle.
我去那里,注册了整个项目,然后回去注册了 Fizzy,完成了整个周期。
And after it did that, I was like, “Jesus.” So I was like, “Well, now you have an email address.
在那之后,我就想,“天哪。”所以我想,“好吧,现在你有了一个电子邮件地址。
Go sign up for Basecamp.
去报名 Basecamp 吧。
I’ll invite you.
我会邀请你。
Just check your email,” I told KEF the bot.
只需检查您的电子邮件即可。”我告诉机器人 KEF。
“Just check your email.” So I sent an invite from Basecamp to the agent.
“检查一下你的电子邮件。”所以我从 Basecamp 向代理发送了邀请。
The agent receives the email in HEY, not through a CLI, not through an MCP, just using the web, right?
代理在 HEY 中接收电子邮件,不是通过 CLI,不是通过 MCP,只是使用网络,对吗?
Clicks the email, clicks the invite link, is in Basecamp.
点击电子邮件,点击邀请链接,就在 Basecamp 中。
Like, “What should I do now?” And I just go like, “I don’t know.
比如,“我现在应该做什么?”我只是说:“我不知道。
Go to our AI room and introduce yourself.” Again, purely through the web interface.
去我们的人工智能室,自我介绍一下。”同样,纯粹通过网络界面。
Finds the AI room, goes in there: “Hey, I’m KEF.
找到AI房间,进去:“嘿,我是KEF。
I’m David’s AI bot.
我是大卫的人工智能机器人。
I’m so excited to be here.”
我很高兴来到这里。”
Yeah.
是的。
I was like- …
我当时就像——……
4:16:27 mind blown.
心碎了。
Now, what was interesting about that experiment was, A, it was that glimpse of the future, because it was kinda slow.
现在,这个实验的有趣之处在于,A,它是对未来的一瞥,因为它有点慢。
I think it took maybe 12 minutes to do the whole thing end to end, right?
我想从头到尾完成整个事情可能需要 12 分钟,对吗?
Now I should actually rerun that test.
现在我实际上应该重新运行该测试。
I’d be shocked if it’s not much faster.
如果不是快得多,我会感到震惊。
I was just using the Groq bot thing- …
我只是在使用 Groq 机器人——……
which has all these stuff built in for using browsers and using a computer, and has its own dedicated computer without you having to set up a computer.
它内置了所有这些用于使用浏览器和使用计算机的东西,并且拥有自己的专用计算机,而无需您设置计算机。
It’s basically like a claw in a box.
它基本上就像盒子里的爪子。
4:16:59 And I was asking it to sign up for something, and it kind of…
我要求它注册一些东西,有点……
I got a glimpse of like, oh yeah, that’s where we are now, and it’s so much faster to use.
我突然意识到,哦,是的,这就是我们现在所处的位置,而且使用起来要快得多。
But at the time, I was just blown away.
但当时我只是被震撼了。
And then I used it for a little bit and I found like, ah, it’s not there yet.
然后我用了一会儿,我发现,啊,它还没有出现。
I can’t actually communicate it within this way.
我实际上无法用这种方式传达它。
It still needs the CLI.
它仍然需要 CLI。
It still needs an MCP because it’s just too slow and too token inefficient and so forth.
它仍然需要 MCP,因为它太慢并且效率太低等等。
But it was this glimpse of the future.
但这是对未来的一瞥。
And then after that, I kinda just didn’t use it, because the things I wanna use agents for, I was mostly in front of my computer to do.
在那之后,我就不再使用它了,因为我想使用代理做的事情,我大部分都是在电脑前做的。
4:17:31 Now, that has changed a little bit lately, and it’s one of the reasons why I’m so kind of okay about using Claude Code, because Claude has the best mobile app, where any session you start Claude Code in your terminal on a computer is accessible through the app-
现在,这种情况最近发生了一些变化,这也是我对使用 Claude Code 如此满意的原因之一,因为 Claude 拥有最好的移动应用程序,您在计算机上的终端中启动 Claude Code 的任何会话都可以通过该应用程序访问 -
Yeah.
是的。
4:17:49 I remember
我记得
…
……
without you having to do anything at all.
您无需做任何事情。
Yep.
是的。
And you can do a terminal.
你可以做一个终端。
4:17:52 Like I installed Terminus and it can run Herder and so on, but it’s a little cumbersome and you’re doing live typing on a computer, so you feel the latency.
就像我安装了Terminus,它可以运行Herder等,但是有点麻烦,而且你是在电脑上实时打字,所以你会感觉到延迟。
4:18:00 When you’re using the Claude app to your Claude Code instances, it feels just like chatting with it, without the cumbersomeness of having to set up a Telegram account and so forth.
当您在 Claude Code 实例中使用 Claude 应用程序时,感觉就像与它聊天一样,无需设置 Telegram 帐户等麻烦。
Now, if you wanna use an open Claude to like run your life, well, then this doesn’t do that.
现在,如果你想用一个开放的克劳德来管理你的生活,那么这不行。
But I haven’t been so interested in that for some reason.
但由于某种原因我对此不太感兴趣。
Maybe one of the reasons is that Jamie, my wife, is like, “We’re not getting a robot inside the house.” So I’m like, “Ah, I better not hook it up to the sort of smart house here.” If it starts turning lights on and off like a poltergeist, I don’t think I’m gonna be all that popular.
也许原因之一是我的妻子杰米说,“我们不会在房子里放机器人。”所以我想,“啊,我最好不要把它连接到这里的那种智能房子。”如果它开始像恶作剧者一样打开和关闭灯,我想我不会那么受欢迎。
So, and part of the reason I say this, I’ve heard some of the stories of people who have hooked it up to their whole life.
所以,我这么说的部分原因是,我听过一些人的故事,他们把它与他们的一生联系在一起。
4:18:39 And I mean, it’s not my story to tell, so I’ll just share sort of the brief anecdote.
我的意思是,这不是我要讲的故事,所以我只会分享一些简短的轶事。
One guy was telling the story about how he hooked it up to both his health data- …
一个人正在讲述他如何将其与他的健康数据联系起来的故事——……
and his Tesla car.
和他的特斯拉汽车。
And his agent got obsessed with the fact that he wasn’t drinking enough water, and like, “Hey, you gotta drink more water.” So at some point he’s driving along, and suddenly the Tesla starts driving in a new direction.
他的经纪人对他没有喝足够的水这一事实感到困扰,就像,“嘿,你必须喝更多的水。”所以在某个时刻,他正在行驶,突然特斯拉开始朝新方向行驶。
The agent had realized there was a grocery store on the way home-
特工在回家的路上发现了一家杂货店——
Wow
哇
…
……
4:19:08 that they could swing by-
他们可以绕过——
That’s great
太好了
…
……
4:19:10 and pick up some water.
并拿起一些水。
That’s great.
太好了。
And you’re like, this is one of those things where it’s like both funny and also totally Black Mirror, and also totally like, well, okay, there’s not that many steps from here where the poltergeist is in your house.
你会想,这是一件既有趣又完全是《黑镜》的事情,而且也完全像,好吧,距离这里不远,恶作剧鬼就在你家里。
4:19:12 So I was just like, “Ah, I don’t need that.” I do actually now like the fact that I can control the agents through Claude Code, just through the app if I, even if I don’t use them that much.
所以我就想,“啊,我不需要那个。”事实上,我现在确实喜欢这样一个事实:我可以通过 Claude Code 控制代理,只需通过应用程序即可,即使我不经常使用它们。
I do think it’s very useful to, for both OpenClaude and Hermes Agent to use it to get a glimpse of a different interaction mode.
我确实认为 OpenClaude 和 Hermes Agent 使用它来了解不同的交互模式非常有用。
Yes.
是的。
And like, just to ’cause it feels like the future, not necessarily in this way, but it’s in some ways going there.
就像,只是因为它感觉像是未来,不一定以这种方式,但它在某些方面正在走向那里。
Yes.
是的。
4:19:51 I think what’s also different with those systems is they have this whole memory system, where they’re building up knowledge of who you are and what you like.
我认为这些系统的另一个不同之处在于它们拥有完整的记忆系统,它们在其中建立关于你是谁和你喜欢什么的知识。
Toby has told the stories about how his agent will shop for him, that it has an allowance, and it’ll pick out clothes for him, and it’ll just show up at the door because his agent’s- …
托比讲述了他的经纪人如何为他购物的故事,它有津贴,它会为他挑选衣服,而且它会出现在门口,因为他的经纪人——……
bought something for him.
给他买了东西。
And like, it’s one of those things where like, man, that feels future.
就像,这是一种让人感觉未来的事情。
Also a little scary.
也有点害怕。
But I can live vicariously through others who are on that frontier.
但我可以通过处于该前沿的其他人来替代生活。
And like you said, you’re thinking of, in the future, doing a mobile version of Mach-E.
就像你说的,你正在考虑在未来制作 Mach-E 的移动版本。
So I mean, this is the delusions of grandeur that start kicking in once you get the seemingly unlimited powers- …
所以我的意思是,一旦你获得了看似无限的力量,这就是一种宏伟的错觉——……
4:20:28 I’ve witnessed with the creation of Quattro.
我见证了 Quattro 的诞生。
So what would that look like?
那会是什么样子呢?
4:20:36 Hard to describe.
很难描述。
Do you mean like Android?
你的意思是像安卓一样吗?
That’s the obvious path, right?
这是显而易见的道路,对吧?
4:20:41 So Android is open source, and you can fork it, and people have.
所以 Android 是开源的,你可以分叉它,人们也这样做了。
There’s all sorts of—GrapheneOS is one such version.
有各种各样的版本——GrapheneOS 就是这样的一个版本。
There are limitations to that model, I know that.
我知道该模型有其局限性。
Tap-to-pay and other things around camera models and so forth, but that all seems surmountable.
触碰支付以及相机型号等方面的其他问题,但这一切似乎都是可以克服的。
It all seems that I would love if my phone was as malleable as my computer, if it looked as cool as my computer now does.
如果我的手机像我的电脑一样具有可塑性,如果它看起来像我的电脑现在一样酷,我似乎会很高兴。
If I could get essentially Omarchy mobile, that sounds amazing.
如果我能获得 Omarchy 移动设备,那听起来棒极了。
I wonder how much work that is.
我想知道这需要多少工作量。
I’m gonna find out.
我会找出答案。
Yeah.
是的。
4:21:12 You know, it’s like those things that you realize once you start building, for example, that a browser is very difficult to do.
你知道,这就像你一旦开始构建就意识到的事情,例如,浏览器很难做到。
Yes.
是的。
And so, like, I wonder with the operating system—
所以,就像,我想知道操作系统——
Yeah, the developers of Ladybird are finding that out, like Andreas and— …
是的,瓢虫的开发者正在发现这一点,比如安德烈亚斯和——……
4:21:23 his team.
他的团队。
Now, interesting with that project was the browser’s basically the second most complicated software system in the world, the first one being the Linux kernel.
现在,该项目的有趣之处在于,浏览器基本上是世界上第二复杂的软件系统,第一个是 Linux 内核。
Right?
对吗?
In terms of these large tens of millions of lines of code systems.
就这些数千万行的代码系统而言。
So very audacious actually to begin such a mission with a small team like Andreas did before we had agents.
实际上,像安德烈亚斯在我们有特工之前那样,以一个小团队开始这样的任务是非常大胆的。
But now that we do have agents, we’re gonna see, and we’re probably gonna see sooner rather than later.
但现在我们确实有了特工,我们会看到的,而且我们可能会尽快看到。
I mean, if there’s one thing agents are already exceptionally good at, it is to read specs and implement them.
我的意思是,如果代理已经非常擅长一件事,那就是阅读规范并实施它们。
And I mean, I don’t know how long the specs are for CSS and HTML at this point, and JavaScript on top, but they’re very long.
我的意思是,我不知道目前 CSS 和 HTML 以及 JavaScript 的规范有多长,但它们非常长。
4:22:11 And it would take humans many, many years to implement them.
人类需要很多很多年才能实现它们。
We’re gonna find out just how quickly agents can do them.
我们将了解特工们能多快完成这些任务。
You mentioned getting some criticism for Omarchy, so let’s walk further down that path of criticism.
你提到奥马奇受到了一些批评,所以让我们沿着批评的道路走得更远。
4:22:18 You have made some of your political opinions known.
你已经公开表达了你的一些政治观点。
I guess you could broadly put in the category of immigration or illegal immigration, or what—
我想你可以大致将其归入移民或非法移民的类别,或者什么——
I’d say mass immigration.
我想说的是大规模移民。
Mass immigration, the role of demographics in the formation of a culture, of a society, of a nation, and you’ve gotten quite a lot of criticism for that and created a lot of drama.
大规模移民,人口统计在文化、社会、国家形成中的作用,你因此受到了很多批评,并创造了很多戏剧性的事情。
4:22:40 Do you regret any of that drama?
你对这部剧感到遗憾吗?
Like, what’s your general thinking about-
比如,你的一般想法是什么——
Not for a second.
一秒钟都没有。
Okay.
好的。
And the reason I say that is that the Overton window does not open itself.
我这么说的原因是奥弗顿的窗户不会自动打开。
4:23:08 It opens one nudge at a time by people risking a little.
人们冒着一点点风险,它就会一次一点地推动。
A little reputation, a little pushback, a little criticism, or maybe sometimes a lot of reputation or a lot of criticism or a lot of pushback.
一点声誉,一点阻力,一点批评,或者有时可能有很多声誉或很多批评或很多阻力。
And I think the question of mass immigration in Europe was for many years this total taboo, and it still is in several European countries.
我认为欧洲大规模移民问题多年来一直是一个完全禁忌,而且在几个欧洲国家仍然如此。
Now, for reasons of maybe just chance and happenstance, they weren’t in Denmark.
现在,也许只是出于偶然和偶然的原因,他们不在丹麦。
The Danes started having the discussion around mass immigration and the consequences thereof in the mid-’90s.
上世纪 90 年代中期,丹麦人开始讨论大规模移民及其后果。
4:23:51 Really early.
真早。
And some of it can be traced back to one man, Mogens Glistrup, who was a very quirky character.
其中一些可以追溯到一个人,莫根斯·格利斯鲁普(Mogens Glistrup),他是一个非常古怪的人物。
I remember him, seeing him on the TV in the ’80s talking about the dangers of mass immigration.
我记得他,八十年代在电视上看到他谈论大规模移民的危险。
And this was at a time where– I grew up in the ’80s, and in the neighborhood I grew up in, in Brønshøj, in, what was it?
那是我在 80 年代长大的时候,在我长大的社区,在 Brønshøj,那是什么?
’84, 99% ethnic Danes, people who could trace their lineage back to Danes who’d lived in that country for 1,000 years.
84 年,99% 是丹麦人,他们的血统可以追溯到在那个国家生活了 1000 年的丹麦人。
The Danes have one of the oldest monarchies in the world, all the way back to Harald Bluetooth, who’s literally who has named the standard Bluetooth.
丹麦人拥有世界上最古老的君主制之一,可以追溯到哈拉尔蓝牙,他确实是标准蓝牙的命名者。
So well over 1,000 years.
已经有 1000 多年的历史了。
Like, there’s a long lineage there of people who lived in the same place.
就像,住在同一个地方的人有很长的血统。
And 99% of the people lived in that neighborhood.
99%的人都住在那个街区。
4:24:45 And then early ’90s, I think it goes to 5% or something like that, and then at this point, it’s down to around 60-something or 70%-
然后到了 90 年代初,我认为它会达到 5% 或类似的水平,然后在这一点上,它会下降到大约 60 左右或 70%——
4:24:53 in Brønshøj.
在布伦肖伊。
That’s a big change.
这是一个很大的变化。
And the Danes started noticing that or talking about that, that this was not an undivided blessing, that there were downsides to mass immigration in about the ’90s.
丹麦人开始注意到这一点或谈论这一点,这并不是一个不可分割的祝福,大约 90 年代大规模移民也有弊端。
And the debate really roared through the 2000s in a way that didn’t happen in the neighboring countries.
这场争论在 2000 年代确实非常激烈,而邻国却没有发生过这种情况。
So Sweden in particular just didn’t have that debate at all.
所以瑞典根本没有进行这样的辩论。
Total taboo.
完全禁忌。
Same thing with Norway, same thing with other countries in Europe.
挪威也是如此,欧洲其他国家也是如此。
And suddenly now, after some years after ’15, where we had the big migration of a million Syrians walking up through the highways in Europe, and Germany choosing to take a lot of them and 30,000 arriving in Denmark and so forth, it’s gotten more of a focus, right?
15年后的几年后,突然之间,我们有100万叙利亚人通过欧洲的高速公路进行大规模移民,德国选择接收其中的很多人,并有30,000人抵达丹麦等等,它变得更加受到关注,对吗?
4:25:44 Because this change has happened.
因为这个变化已经发生了。
And one of the ways I find that you can spot where sort of there’s something that isn’t right in the culture is, like, what are you allowed to talk about?
我发现你可以发现文化中哪些地方不对劲的方法之一是,比如,你可以谈论什么?
What are you allowed to notice, actually, is how I should put it.
事实上,你可以注意到的是,我应该这么说。
And what I noticed in an essay, when was that?
我在一篇文章中注意到了什么,那是什么时候?
Only a year and a half ago as I remember London, was that I started coming to London in the late ’90s or something like that.
就我记忆中的伦敦而言,就在一年半前,我是在 90 年代末或类似的时候开始来到伦敦的。
At the time, whatever, it’s 59%, 60% ethnic Brits.
无论如何,当时有 59%、60% 是英国人。
And then 20 years later, we’re down to 34% or something like that.
20 年后,我们下降到 34% 左右。
Like, that’s noticeable.
就像,这很明显。
Like, literally just walking on the street, you realize, well, this is a different city from what it was when I visited 20 years ago.
就像,只要走在街上,你就会意识到,这个城市与我 20 年前访问时不同。
4:26:29 And if you went 20 years before that, you get back to similar rates as what the Danes have.
如果你在那之前 20 年去过,你会回到与丹麦人相似的利率。
This was like a country of ethnic Brits in the 85s, 90s percentiles- …
这就像一个 85 年代、90 年代英国人组成的国家——……
if you get further back.
如果你再往后退一步。
So that’s a different country in a generation.
所以这是一代人的不同国家。
It’s okay to notice that.
注意到这一点没关系。
It’s also okay to think, “Do you know what?
也可以这样想:“你知道什么吗?
I don’t agree with that.”
我不同意这一点。”
4:26:53 “I wish it wasn’t that way.” I mean, the last time I was in China was ’19, 2019.
“我希望事情不是这样的。”我的意思是,我上次来中国是 2019 年 19 日。
I was in Shanghai.
我当时在上海。
It was all Chinese.
都是中国人。
If I, when I go back here this October, suddenly find that there’s only 30% Chinese and then there’s 70% other people, I’d be a little weird.
如果我今年十月回到这里,突然发现这里只有 30% 的中国人,然后还有 70% 的其他人,我会有点奇怪。
I’d probably be like, “What happened?” And I would not take offense if the Chinese in that instant would go like, “Ah, we don’t like that.” So this idea that countries of Europe don’t have a right to, A, notice what’s happening and, B, oppose what’s happening, I find just to be wrong, right?
我可能会说,“发生了什么事?”如果中国人在那一刻会说:“啊,我们不喜欢这样。”我不会生气。因此,欧洲国家无权 A 注意到正在发生的事情,B 反对正在发生的事情,我认为这种想法是错误的,对吗?
4:27:47 Like there’s just– I think there’s a moral argument for self-determination, and we invoke that argument all the time in other regions around the world that like, oh, the people who live in that region, they have a right to self-determination for their country.
就像——我认为自决有一个道德论点,我们在世界其他地区一直援引这个论点,就像,哦,生活在那个地区的人们,他们有权为自己的国家实现自决。
And I think it’s completely fair for, say, the Danes or the Swedes or the Norwegians to go like, “Well, we’ve been kingdoms here for a thousand years with a certain ethnic mix-up.” It’s a– I mean, I’m a big fan of immigration.
我认为,对于丹麦人、瑞典人或挪威人来说,“好吧,我们这里已经存在了一千年了,存在一定的种族混杂”,这是完全公平的。这是——我的意思是,我是移民的忠实粉丝。
I’m an immigrant to the US.
我是美国移民。
Cherry-picked immigration where countries compete to attract the smartest, most talented people around the world is really good.
各国竞相吸引世界各地最聪明、最有才华的人才,精挑细选的移民确实是件好事。
Legal merit-based immigration.
合法择优移民。
Merit-based is key here because there’s actually virtually no illegal immigration in most of Europe.
择优录取是关键,因为欧洲大部分地区实际上不存在非法移民。
4:28:30 Southern Europe has some illegal immigration, but most of Europe does not have a big problem with illegal immigration.
南欧有一些非法移民,但欧洲大部分地区的非法移民问题并不大。
4:28:43 And the problem is with mass immigration of other kinds, and that you end up with demographics that are just totally different from what they were even a few short decades ago.
问题在于其他类型的大规模移民,最终导致人口统计数据与几十年前完全不同。
And I think the countries of Europe would benefit from immigration.
我认为欧洲国家将从移民中受益。
In fact, one of the interesting things about the Danes is they carry meticulous statistics on immigration.
事实上,丹麦人有趣的事情之一是他们对移民有细致的统计数据。
I’m not entirely sure why they’re so detailed.
我不完全确定为什么它们如此详细。
Maybe it’s all the way back to Mogens Glistrup and his discussion in the ’90s, but they do.
也许这可以追溯到 Mogens Glistrup 和他在 90 年代的讨论,但他们确实如此。
And what’s clear from those statistics is that when the Danes have folks from the UK, France, the US show up, on average, those immigrants are really beneficial to the Danish state.
从这些统计数据中可以清楚地看出,当丹麦人中有来自英国、法国、美国的移民时,平均而言,这些移民确实对丹麦国家有利。
They contribute far more than what they ask of the state.
他们的贡献远远超过他们对国家的要求。
4:29:36 So the Danes should accept immigrants who do that, who contribute far more than they take.
因此,丹麦人应该接受这样做的移民,他们的贡献远远超过他们的索取。
Then you look at other forms of immigrant groups.
然后你看看其他形式的移民群体。
There was just a tally that came out last week from a Danish politicians that had asked the, I think finance ministry to do this tally with the latest numbers.
上周,一位丹麦政界人士刚刚公布了一份统计数据,他要求财政部用最新的数据进行统计。
What does it cost the Danish state to have positive immigration?
丹麦政府为实现积极的移民政策付出了怎样的代价?
This case as I mentioned.
这个案例正如我提到的。
I think for the on that list whatever, France, UK, US, they were all clustered around the same thing, about $25,000 net benefit to the Danish state every year.
我认为,无论是法国、英国、美国,还是清单上的国家,它们都围绕着同一件事,每年为丹麦政府带来约 25,000 美元的净收益。
It’s like, wow, that’s very positive.
就像,哇,这非常积极。
That’s average again, right?
这又是平均水平了,对吧?
And then at the other end of the spectrum on the most costly immigrants was Somalis.
而成本最高的移民的另一端是索马里人。
4:30:26 They ended up costing the Danish state on average $28,000 a year.
最终,丹麦政府每年平均花费 28,000 美元。
I think it’s fair for the Danes to go like, “We’d prefer to get more French, Brits, and Americans and not so many Somalis.”
我认为丹麦人这样说是公平的:“我们希望有更多的法国人、英国人和美国人,而不是那么多索马里人。”
Why do you think you got so much hate on that post?
你认为为什么你对那篇文章有如此多的仇恨?
That’s a very taboo topic in a lot of circles.
这在很多圈子里都是一个非常禁忌的话题。
Some of it has to do with Overton window expansion?
其中一些与奥弗顿窗户扩展有关?
I’m sure, but I also think– I mean, I wanna take the steel man argument here.
我确信,但我也认为——我的意思是,我想在这里讨论钢铁侠的论点。
4:30:56 I do think that it, this can turn ugly, right?
我确实认为这会变得丑陋,对吗?
Is it possible for some of these things to just veer into overt racism that isn’t founded in anything else but a hatred of other people?
其中一些事情是否有可能转变为公开的种族主义,而这种种族主义除了对他人的仇恨之外没有其他任何基础?
Yeah, that could happen.
是的,那可能会发生。
But that risk does not negate the need to have a discussion about the makeup of your country and what your immigration policy should be like.
但这种风险并不排除讨论您所在国家的构成以及您的移民政策应该是什么样的必要性。
And what I also find so funny is, especially in Europe, it’s so kind of myopic that this discussion about whether Europeans should have a right to self-determination about what their countries look like, that standard seems to only apply there.
我还发现很有趣的是,尤其是在欧洲,关于欧洲人是否应该对其国家的面貌拥有自决权的讨论是如此短视,该标准似乎只适用于欧洲。
No one is trying to tell the Japanese, “Hey, you’re too Japanese.” Like whatever, it’s 98%, I think, in Tokyo that’s, um-
没有人试图告诉日本人,“嘿,你太日本了。”不管怎么说,我想,在东京,这个比例是 98%,嗯-
4:31:54 …
……
Ethnic Japanese, right?
日本人,对吧?
Like, is anyone trying to tell the Japanese that their Tokyo would be a much better country if they were down to London levels of ethnic Japanese, that it was, whatever, 37%?
比如,是否有人试图告诉日本人,如果他们的日本人比例下降到伦敦的水平,他们的东京将会是一个更好的国家,不管怎样,他们的日本人比例是 37%?
I don’t think so.
我不这么认为。
So there’s this weird almost self-loathing, in my opinion, I mean Gad calls it suicidal empathy-
所以在我看来,这是一种奇怪的、几乎是自我厌恶的感觉,我的意思是盖德称之为自杀式的同理心——
4:32:17 …
……
that permeates this stuff to a degree that I still haven’t fully unpacked.
它渗透到这些东西中的程度我还没有完全解开。
Like, where is this coming from?
比如,这是从哪里来的?
Why is it that way?
为什么会这样呢?
But regardless, I just noticed, hey, London looks different.
但无论如何,我只是注意到,嘿,伦敦看起来不一样了。
I preferred the old London, as I would say I preferred the neighborhood that I grew up in in Copenhagen, how it looked in the ’80s.
我更喜欢老伦敦,就像我更喜欢我在哥本哈根长大的街区一样,它在 80 年代的样子。
Like I totally get how you can then jump five leaps and go like, “Okay, well, that’s racist.” And I also, I don’t care anymore.
就像我完全明白你如何跳五跳然后说:“好吧,好吧,这是种族主义。”而我,也已经不在乎了。
Like, this is a fair discussion to have.
就像,这是一个公平的讨论。
4:33:00 Countries and peoples have a right to set an immigration policy, and this notion that we shouldn’t have any borders or, or even worse than that, it’s all just a blank slate, that all peoples are just the same, and we can take people from one place of the earth and we can place them in another place of, on the earth and everything’s just gonna work out hunky dory.
国家和人民有权制定移民政策,而我们不应该有任何边界,或者更糟糕的是,这一切都只是一张白纸,所有人民都是一样的,我们可以将人们从地球上的一个地方带走,我们可以将他们安置在地球上的另一个地方,一切都会顺利进行。
Empirically not true.
经验上并不正确。
Europe has been running that experiment since the ’80s.
欧洲自 80 年代以来一直在进行这项实验。
It hasn’t panned out well, and now there are forces in Europe who wanna undo that experiment, who wants to end mass immigration as it’s been run so far.
结果并不理想,现在欧洲有些势力想要撤销这个实验,想要结束迄今为止的大规模移民。
And I happen to believe, and so do a majority of Danes and a bunch of other peoples, that like, “Do you know what?
我碰巧相信,大多数丹麦人和其他一些民族也相信,“你知道吗?
Yeah, it hasn’t been working how we’ve been doing it.
是的,我们一直以来的做法并没有发挥作用。
4:33:54 We gotta make some changes.” And I don’t think that means, again, zero immigration.
我们必须做出一些改变。”我认为这并不意味着零移民。
Again, I’m an immigrant.
再说一遍,我是移民。
I think US, generally speaking, have benefited tremendously from immigration, but that’s the kind of sleight of hand.
我认为,总的来说,美国从移民中受益匪浅,但这就是一种花招。
Immigration depends greatly on who immigrates.
移民很大程度上取决于谁移民。
And a country benefits when the people who immigrate are net contributors to the society, and in most cases, that they assimilate with the local culture.
当移民成为社会的净贡献者并且在大多数情况下他们融入了当地文化时,一个国家就会受益。
4:34:23 If you come to Denmark and you wanna become a Dane, and you put in all the effort, and you contribute to society, I think most Danes would be quite happy to allow that in a reasonable number.
如果你来到丹麦,你想成为一名丹麦人,并且你付出了所有的努力,为社会做出了贡献,我想大多数丹麦人会很乐意允许在合理的范围内实现这一点。
If you come to Denmark and you don’t wanna assimilate, and you are a net drain on society, and you live in a parallel society, it’s also fair for Danes to say like, “Uh, let’s stop doing that.”
如果你来到丹麦并且不想被同化,并且你是社会的净消耗者,并且你生活在一个平行的社会中,那么对于丹麦人来说,“呃,我们停止这样做吧”也是公平的。
It’s interesting that I’m not well-versed on the immigration system in the United States, but as far as I understand, merit-based systems have not passed here.
有趣的是,我对美国的移民制度不太了解,但据我了解,择优录取制度在这里还没有通过。
And then also, American culture is very different.
而且,美国文化也非常不同。
4:34:58 This is a point I did not fully appreciate until living both places extensively.
直到我在这两个地方广泛生活之后,我才完全意识到这一点。
America has a culture of optional assimilation, where it is much easier and then much more condoned for someone coming from Denmark or Ukraine or wherever, come to America, buy into the American set of values and norms and culture, and then be able to be respected as Americans by other Americans.
美国有一种选择性同化的文化,对于来自丹麦、乌克兰或其他任何地方的人来说,来到美国,接受美国的价值观、规范和文化,然后能够像美国人一样受到其他美国人的尊重,会更容易,也更容易被宽恕。
This is what’s so funny to me when there’s discussion like, “America is such a racist country.” I’m like, “Have you ever been anywhere?
当有人讨论“美国是一个种族主义国家”时,这对我来说很有趣。我说:“你去过什么地方吗?
Do you know what other countries are like?” Like, if you think America is the most racist country, you are simply misinformed.
你知道其他国家是什么样子吗?”就像,如果你认为美国是种族主义最严重的国家,那你只是被误导了。
4:35:51 I mean, we’re dealing with that with time we’ve spent in Denmark.
我的意思是,我们正在用在丹麦度过的时间来解决这个问题。
My wife is American of Scandinavian heritage- …
我的妻子是具有斯堪的纳维亚血统的美国人——……
but multiple generations in the US.
但在美国已经有好几代人了。
Very difficult.
非常困难。
Very difficult-
非常困难——
Oh, wow.
哦,哇。
…
……
4:36:07 as a blonde, blue-eyed woman who’s put in all sorts of effort learning the language and doing everything, still very, very difficult to assimilate to Danish culture.
作为一个金发碧眼的女人,她付出了各种努力学习语言并做了所有事情,但仍然非常非常难以融入丹麦文化。
In a way where if that had been the other way around and she had been Danish and moving to the US, it would not have been that difficult at all.
在某种程度上,如果情况正好相反,她是丹麦人并搬到美国,那么事情就不会那么困难了。
And this was the other thing.
这是另一回事。
I mean, living in a country like Denmark with an American wife who is of Scandinavian heritage and has put in all the effort, and still realizing, man, assimilation is incredibly difficult, even when you’re 97% there all the way.
我的意思是,生活在像丹麦这样的国家,与一位具有斯堪的纳维亚血统的美国妻子一起生活,并付出了所有的努力,但仍然意识到,伙计,同化是非常困难的,即使你已经做到了 97%。
Holy smokes, must it be almost impossible if you come from a completely foreign culture-
天哪,如果你来自完全陌生的文化,这几乎是不可能的吗?
4:36:51 …
……
and foreign norms and the rest of it.
以及外国规范和其他内容。
And of course, that’s what the stats I just quoted bear out, that the more dissimilar the culture is and the further it is, the less likely to be successful.
当然,这就是我刚才引用的统计数据所证明的,文化越不相似、差距越远,成功的可能性就越小。
Has articulating that stance cost you friendships, relationships?
表达这种立场是否会让你失去友谊和人际关系?
Yes, but not just that alone, I would say.
是的,但我想说,不仅仅是这一点。
4:37:14 It’s more of the great divide that happened around 2020, where I think a lot of these political fault lines really opened up.
这更多的是2020年左右发生的巨大分歧,我认为许多政治断层线确实在那时出现了。
And I mean, the shorthand in the US, I think is were you woke or not?
我的意思是,在美国的简写,我想是你醒了吗?
And clearly, I had a bunch of people that I thought I had good relations with for many years, who suddenly once that political fault line opened up, they were clearly just not anymore.
显然,我认为我与一群人多年来一直保持着良好的关系,但一旦政治断层线出现,他们显然就不再是了。
And I think that’s regrettable.
我认为这很遗憾。
And I think I’ve tried to put an effort into sort of both understanding where that comes from, in part because I’ve changed my mind on several of these topics over the years, and it was like, well, sometimes you just change your mind after time.
我想我已经尽力去理解这两者的来源,部分原因是这些年来我对其中几个话题改变了主意,就像,好吧,有时你只是在一段时间后改变了主意。
Sometimes you change your mind after you get new information.
有时,您在获得新信息后会改变主意。
4:38:13 There’s all sorts of reasons and moments why you may change your mind, and we don’t all change our mind on the same schedule or at all.
你可能会因为各种各样的原因和时刻改变主意,但我们不会在同一个时间表上改变主意,甚至根本不会改变主意。
4:38:20 So surrounding yourself and, or at least interacting with people that don’t think like you on every topic, I think it’s quite healthy.
因此,围绕在自己周围,或者至少与在每个话题上与你想法不同的人互动,我认为这是相当健康的。
I mean, I occasionally discuss politics with my brother.
我的意思是,我偶尔会和我哥哥讨论政治。
I mean, we don’t quite see eye to eye on all these topics, and sometimes the discussions can get a little heated, but then they’ll also calm down and we realize, all right, okay, so we don’t agree on this, and then we agree on a lot of other things.
我的意思是,我们在所有这些话题上的看法都不太一致,有时讨论会变得有点激烈,但随后他们也会平静下来,我们意识到,好吧,好吧,所以我们在这一点上不同意,然后我们在很多其他事情上达成一致。
We appreciate a lot of the same things.
我们欣赏很多相同的事情。
Now, this was actually one of the things when we had our big blowup at Basecamp, I came to appreciate in a whole new way this– earlier norm that talking politics or religion or money with strangers or even acquaintances, and certainly with colleagues, was just not a good idea.
现在,这实际上是我们在 Basecamp 发生大爆炸时发生的事情之一,我开始以一种全新的方式欣赏这一早期规范,即与陌生人甚至熟人,当然还有同事谈论政治、宗教或金钱,并不是一个好主意。
4:39:11 That you had a much higher likelihood of being able to carry a good working relationship with someone if you’re not rubbing your political differences up against each other all the time.
如果你不总是互相摩擦政治分歧,那么你与某人建立良好工作关系的可能性就会大得多。
So I actually think liberals and conservatives should work together.
所以我实际上认为自由派和保守派应该合作。
I think the country would be much worse off if there’s a complete separation between the tribes, and then there can’t be any overlap or interaction.
我认为如果部落之间完全分离,并且不能有任何重叠或互动,那么这个国家的情况会更糟。
And I think that mingling is so much easier to do if you just don’t focus on your differences all the time.
我认为,如果你不一直关注彼此的差异,那么交往就会容易得多。
Focus on what you like together.
一起专注于你们喜欢的事情。
I mean, this is some of the people I’ve had unfortunately drifted from in tech.
我的意思是,这是我在科技领域不幸疏远的一些人。
We had so much in common, so much shared love for, say, Ruby or other things and, like, isn’t that unfortunate?
我们有如此多的共同点,对 Ruby 或其他事物有如此多的共同热爱,这不是不幸吗?
I would like to live in a world where the differences are very interesting to also talk about.
我希望生活在一个讨论差异也很有趣的世界。
4:40:02 And not to be overly emotional- …
并且不要过于情绪化-...
about even radical differences.
甚至是根本性的差异。
Because in the differences, first of all, that’s where interesting stuff is.
因为差异首先就是有趣的地方。
And, but also, it’s how you grow.
而且,这也是你成长的方式。
It’s a sign of health in a society if the differences are embraced and they are brought together into community where you can talk about it.
如果差异被接受并且被聚集到可以讨论的社区中,这是一个社会健康的标志。
One of the great illustrations of that for me was when I watched a clip from William F.
对我来说,最精彩的例证之一是当我观看威廉·F·肯尼迪 (William F.
4:40:38 Buckley’s show.
巴克利的表演。
I think it was called Firing Line or-
我想它的名字叫“火线”或者-
Yeah, yeah
是啊是啊
…
……
4:40:46 something like that.
类似的事情。
And he had a member of the Black Panthers- …
他还有一名黑豹党成员——……
on his panel.
在他的面板上。
It was quite obvious that those two gentlemen did not share a lot of politics.
很明显,这两位先生在政治上没有太多共同点。
They were able to carry a conversation for, I think I watched it, 25 minutes.
他们能够进行 25 分钟的对话,我想我看了。
And Buckley’s just asking, like, “So what do you think about this?
巴克利只是问,“那么你对此有何看法?
What do you think about this?” And like, the Black Panther would reply as you would expect the Black Panther to reply in the ’70s.
你对此有何看法?就像,黑豹会回复你所期望的黑豹在 70 年代的回复一样。
Like, there was not a lot of sort of conciliatory tones.
就像,没有太多和解的语气。
And I just thought, like, wow, that is so rare.
我只是想,哇,这太罕见了。
If you had seen that show today, it would’ve been a shouting match.
如果你今天看过那个节目,那将会是一场争吵。
It would’ve been just accusations being hurled back and forth.
这只是来来回回的指责。
4:41:31 The fact that Buckley was able to just have these conversations with people he vehemently disagreed with and still explore all the intellectual facets of their standpoints and letting them speak to those facets, talks of a lost era that I’d very much like to get back to.
事实上,巴克利能够与他强烈反对的人进行这些对话,同时仍然探索他们观点的所有知识方面,并让他们谈论这些方面,谈论一个我非常想回到的失落的时代。
I mean, I always actually loved talking politics with friends that I trusted could talk about these topics in a way where it didn’t have to be existential.
我的意思是,我一直很喜欢和朋友谈论政治,我相信他们可以以一种不必是存在主义的方式谈论这些话题。
But there’s something about the current era where that’s harder and harder to come by.
但在当今时代,实现这一目标变得越来越困难。
4:42:03 And so what you just articulated is important to say regularly to remind people of an ideal we should all strive for, to be able to have differences and talk about them.
因此,你刚才所阐述的内容很重要,要经常说出来,以提醒人们我们都应该为之奋斗的理想,即能够存在分歧并谈论它们。
‘Cause like, politics is fun.
因为政治很有趣。
Like I’ve gotten used to saying I hate politics at this point, but what I really mean is whatever the system that’s currently happening, where there’s certain topics, and we know all the phrases you can say that somehow put you in a bin of blue or red, and that creates drama versus a conversation.
就像我已经习惯说我现在讨厌政治一样,但我真正的意思是,无论当前正在发生什么系统,有某些主题,我们知道你可以说的所有短语,这些短语以某种方式将你置于蓝色或红色的箱子中,这会产生戏剧性而不是对话。
4:42:44 Like I could think of a lot of harmless, if I wasn’t paying attention to the internet, I could think of a bunch of harmless statements I could make analyzing the situation in the world that would trigger everybody to say, “Oh, that guy’s a leftist-” piece of shit,” or a, you know, a right-wing fascist.
就像我可以想到很多无害的东西一样,如果我不关注互联网,我可以想到一堆无害的言论,我可以在分析世界形势时做出这些言论,这些言论会引发每个人说,“哦,那家伙是左派——”狗屎,或者,你知道,是右翼法西斯主义者。
And then objectively, if I wasn’t paying attention to the internet, I would be, and I have been shocked.
客观地说,如果我没有关注互联网,我就会关注互联网,我感到震惊。
‘Cause I haven’t been paying attention to the internet deeply.
因为我还没有深入关注互联网。
Uh but reading and preparing a lot, for example, for the war in Ukraine, and I have been shocked how certain statements from me can come off as one way or the other, and I get viciously attacked for it.
呃,但是我读了很多书并做了很多准备,例如,为乌克兰战争做准备,我很震惊我的某些言论可能会以这样或那样的方式出现,而且我因此受到了恶毒的攻击。
4:43:35 But what that attack is doing is it’s saying, “Hey, you, asshole who thinks you could just move about and think freely, pick a bin- …
但这次攻击的作用是说,“嘿,你这个混蛋,以为你可以随意走动并自由思考,捡一个垃圾箱——……
and sit in that fucking bin.” Put on that blue shirt or red shirt.
然后坐在那个该死的垃圾箱里。”穿上那件蓝色衬衫或红色衬衫。
And then, and then actually what I’ve realized is things calm down.
然后,实际上我意识到事情平静下来了。
They don’t, the system doesn’t pick on you if you just say, “I’m a blue person,” or, “I’m a red person.” But if you’re just, like, curiously exploring the world and reasoning about the world, the system punishes you.
他们不会,如果你只是说“我是蓝色人”或“我是红色人”,系统不会挑剔你。但如果你只是好奇地探索世界并推理世界,系统就会惩罚你。
And I hate that, ’cause I wanna get back to the Buckley and the Black Panther discussion.
我讨厌这样,因为我想回到巴克利和黑豹的讨论上。
4:44:14 And you were just saying opinions.
而你只是说意见。
But then looking pragmatically at the situation, I have realized not to mention politics unless I really care about an issue.
但后来务实地审视了情况,我意识到除非我真的关心某个问题,否则不要提及政治。
‘Cause I realize there’s a cost.
因为我意识到这是有代价的。
They’ll put you in the blue bin or red bin.
他们会将您放入蓝色垃圾箱或红色垃圾箱。
So you have to be more deliberate about choosing.
所以大家在选择的时候一定要更加慎重。
Yes.
是的。
4:44:33 And I’ve tried to be more conscious of that, too.
我也试图更加意识到这一点。
And then when I do choose to speak about it, it’s usually because I have deliberated, and I think- …
然后,当我选择谈论它时,通常是因为我经过深思熟虑,而且我认为——……
“You know what?
“你知道吗?
This is worth it.” Now, I say that, and then I also catch myself thinking the opposite all the time, that I follow some person or another for whatever their technical work, and then I- …
这是值得的。”现在,我这么说,然后我发现自己一直在想相反的事情,我追随某人或另一个人,无论他们的技术工作如何,然后我 - ......
learned or political standpoint.
学术或政治立场。
And I often do think, “I wish I didn’t know that.” So, it’s hypocritical- …
我经常想:“我希望我不知道这一点。”所以,这是虚伪的——...
then to think that of other people and then go like, “Well, occasionally I will-
然后想想其他人,然后说,“好吧,有时我会-
4:45:13 …
……
chime in on a debate that’s controversial,” and then you have to accept that there is a price to that.
插话有争议的辩论”,然后你必须接受这是有代价的。
And I do think you should, and more people should, be somewhat conscious about that.
我确实认为你应该、更多的人应该对此有所认识。
And again, we’re both contradicting ourselves here, but saying like, “Wouldn’t it be nice if we could talk about politics in more free and open forum and just intellectually turn ideas around?” Yes, it would.
再说一次,我们都在这里自相矛盾,但我们会说,“如果我们能在更自由、更开放的论坛上谈论政治,并从理智上扭转想法,那不是很好吗?”是的,会的。
Is that currently possible in the climate of social media and so forth?
目前在社交媒体等环境下这可能吗?
It’s quite difficult.
这是相当困难的。
Now, some of it could simply also be a moment, and we could get past that moment.
现在,其中一些也可能只是一个时刻,我们可以超越那个时刻。
Yeah.
是的。
4:45:49 I hope so.
我希望如此。
Maybe there is a way to get back to Buckley’s conversation with the Black Panthers, even on social media, in a way where those discussions don’t lead to the sort of just vicious mob cancellation nonsense drives that we’ve had, right?
也许有一种方法可以让我们回到巴克利与黑豹党的对话,即使是在社交媒体上,但这些讨论不会导致我们所经历过的那种恶意的暴徒取消胡言乱语,对吧?
I actually think we’re closer there now than we were five years ago.
事实上,我认为我们现在比五年前更接近这个目标。
Like, the tribalism and the sanctions those tribes were able to exact on heretics in 2020 was way greater than it was in 2025.
比如,2020 年的部落主义和这些部落对异端分子实施的制裁比 2025 年要严重得多。
Certainly within tech.
当然是在科技领域。
Now, I know if you’re in academia, I mean, try going into the sociology department at I don’t know, Harvard and mention some right-wing ideas.
现在,我知道如果你在学术界,我的意思是,尝试进入我不知道的哈佛大学社会学系,并提到一些右翼思想。
I don’t think it’s gonna go over very well, and I don’t think you’re gonna recover from it quickly.
我认为这不会很好,我也不认为你会很快恢复过来。
4:46:34 But in, in tech and in many other business domains at least, it is now possible to have an opinion that does not square with what the consensus was in 2020.
但在科技领域,至少在许多其他商业领域,现在可能会出现与 2020 年共识不一致的观点。
That’s for sure.
这是肯定的。
Well, there’s some drama in the Rails community.
嗯,Rails 社区里有一些戏剧性的事情。
4:46:47 There’s some drama elsewhere.
其他地方还有一些戏剧性的事情。
Is it…
难道是……
How did that turn out?
结果如何?
Is that all okay?
这样就可以了吗?
In the sense that every single round of drama shrinks.
从某种意义上说,每一轮戏剧都会缩小。
4:46:56 So it’s like we’ve, we had this peak infection of mega drama around the same time every other community had a peak infection of drama around 2020.
所以就像我们一样,我们在 2020 年左右经历了大型戏剧感染高峰的同时,其他所有社区也都出现了戏剧感染高峰。
And then you just see, like, every time there’s a new flare up, it’s less.
然后你就会发现,每当有新的爆发时,它就会减少。
And the kind of people who are ideologically wedded to sort of that struggle just shrinks and shrinks and shrinks.
那些在意识形态上热衷于这种斗争的人只会不断萎缩。
And at this point, one of the best things that happened for X, in my opinion, was that Bluesky and Mastodon came around.
在我看来,此时对 X 来说最好的事情之一就是 Bluesky 和 Mastodon 的出现。
Because it kind of was like this honeypot for just the most vicious individuals on X and Twitter at the time, right?
因为这有点像这个蜜罐,专门针对当时 X 和 Twitter 上最恶毒的人,对吧?
4:47:43 Who just congregated here in an ever-shrinking echo chamber that just went through purity cycle after purity cycle and shrank every single time to the point that there were just not a lot left.
他们只是聚集在一个不断缩小的回声室中,这个回声室刚刚经历了一个又一个的纯度周期,并且每次都缩小到只剩下不多的程度。
And the people who are left now there, they’re just out of sight, out of mind.
而现在留在那儿的人,他们只是看不见,心不在焉。
And that’s not to say that X is some sort of perfect place, or there aren’t firing squads occasionally there, or there aren’t…
这并不是说 X 是某种完美的地方,或者那里偶尔没有行刑队,或者没有……
But there’s less of it.
但这样的还是比较少的。
Like, every single time I’ve been pulled into a Mastodon, or not been pulled in, just spectated from afar, thread, a Bluesky or whatever, it was like, “Oh, shit yeah, this is what Twitter used to be like.
就像,每次我被拉进乳齿象,或者没有被拉进去,只是从远处观看,线程,蓝天或其他什么,就像,“哦,操,是的,这就是 Twitter 过去的样子。
Jesus.” And now you can actually be on X, as I am, and, like, 90% of my engagement is about cool Linux stuff, cool technology stuff.
耶稣。”现在你实际上可以像我一样使用 X,而且,我 90% 的参与都是关于很酷的 Linux 东西、很酷的技术东西。
4:48:32 “Look, I discovered a new computer.
“看,我发现了一台新电脑。
Can you see how fast it is?” And I can have those conversations with other people who are just also excited about computers.
你能看出速度有多快吗?”我可以与其他同样对计算机感兴趣的人进行这些对话。
And then there’s, like, 10% of it left that’s like, all right, I’ll chime in on something that’s a little controversial, and we can have a little discussion there.
然后还剩下 10%,好吧,我会插话一些有争议的事情,我们可以在那里进行一些讨论。
And then we can just go back to being excited about computers.
然后我们就可以重新对计算机感到兴奋了。
The algorithm is actually very good at finding stuff that you will find interesting, or I shouldn’t say that, engaging.
该算法实际上非常擅长找到您会感兴趣的东西,或者我不应该这么说,吸引人。
Sometimes it’s enraging, but it is engaging, and therefore, revealed preference is that most people want a For You page.
有时它很令人愤怒,但它很吸引人,因此,显示出的偏好是大多数人想要一个“为你”页面。
They don’t want just a following feed.
他们不想要的只是后续的提要。
No, but they’re addicted to the For You page, right?
不,但他们对“为你推荐”页面上瘾了,对吗?
They…
他们……
4:49:05 Yes, yes.
是的,是的。
That’s true.
确实如此。
I think an LLM, like, if we had a strong LLM doing the feed that’s personalized, it would do much better.
我认为法学硕士,如果我们有一个强大的法学硕士来做个性化的提要,它会做得更好。
The problem is how to deliver that at scale is extremely difficult.
问题是如何大规模实现这一目标极其困难。
Well, the problem is the, the reward function is engagement.
嗯,问题是,奖励函数是参与度。
4:49:16 And as soon as the reward function is engagement— …
一旦奖励函数是参与度——……
engagement’s gonna follow base instincts, and here we go.
参与将遵循基本的本能,我们开始吧。
But I also don’t wanna be so negative.
但我也不想那么消极。
To me, and I get we all have our own personalized algorithms, and sometimes it gets a little much.
对我来说,我知道我们都有自己的个性化算法,有时它会变得有点过分。
But I would say, on average, over the last 10 years, this is the best X has ever been.
但我想说,平均而言,在过去 10 年里,这是有史以来最好的 X。
And I say that as someone who cares about a lot of technology talk, a lot of Linux talk, and a lot of that.
我是作为一个关心大量技术谈话、大量 Linux 谈话等等的人这么说的。
That that’s able to happen now in a way where it doesn’t constantly get gatecrashed by people who wanna drag it into some political discussion…
现在,这种情况能够以一种不会经常被那些想将其拖入某些政治讨论的人来破坏的方式发生……
4:49:57 …
……
I find to be really awesome.
我发现真的很棒。
I find actually X to be a great place to find that.
我发现实际上 X 是一个找到这个的好地方。
Now, it’s also a place to find other things, and we all have our own algorithms, so you can’t make any declarative announcements about what X is or what it isn’t.
现在,它也是一个寻找其他东西的地方,我们都有自己的算法,所以你不能对 X 是什么或不是什么做出任何声明性的公告。
Your feed is probably totally different from my feed, and it’s totally different from someone else’s feed, right?
你的提要可能与我的提要完全不同,也与其他人的提要完全不同,对吗?
Yeah, I can’t comment on this because of the nature of the fact that I interview a wide variety of people, my feed is probably just a—
是的,我无法对此发表评论,因为我采访了各种各样的人,我的提要可能只是——
Is it, is it good for your feed or is it bad for your feed that you have to have it, right?
你必须吃它,对你的饲料有好处还是有害,对吗?
It’s bad.
这很糟糕。
Okay.
好的。
It’s bad ’cause I could be like, “I’m eating this apple.
这很糟糕,因为我可能会说,“我正在吃这个苹果。
4:50:31 It’s so delicious.”
太好吃了。”
Oh.
哦。
And then a bunch of people will show up, “Well, it’s because you’re a Zelensky shill—
然后一群人就会出现,“好吧,那是因为你是泽连斯基的托儿——
Yeah, right.
是的,对。
…
……
4:50:40 or you’re a Putin shill, you piece of shit.” It’s like, all right.
或者你就是普京的托儿,你这个狗屎。”就像,好吧。
I’ll just go back to the-
我就回到-
I mean, I occasionally have a little bit of that where you just go like, “Wait, what?
我的意思是,我偶尔会遇到这样的情况:“等等,什么?
4:50:45 What are we talking about?
我们在说什么?
What are you…
你是什么……
Why would you show up in this way?” This is one of the reasons why I actually really enjoy podcasts, because I have found that even in long form writing, when I make long form arguments, people hear it in whatever voice they have in their head for me.
为什么你会以这样的方式出现?”这是我真正喜欢播客的原因之一,因为我发现即使在长篇写作中,当我提出长篇论证时,人们也会以他们脑海中对我的任何声音听到它。
And that often gets pre-programmed in advance of the arguments, just like, well, this guy is a, whatever, fascist.
这通常是在争论之前就预先编程好的,就像,好吧,这个人是一个法西斯主义者。
And then they hear the words and they read the words in those names.
然后他们听到这些词,并读到这些名字中的词。
When they see or hear the actual tone of how I’m presenting the arguments, they may not agree with those arguments.
当他们看到或听到我提出论点的实际语气时,他们可能不同意这些论点。
I mean, many of them, of course, obviously don’t.
我的意思是,当然,他们中的许多人显然不这样做。
But it’s much harder to just dismiss or hate someone like that.
但要解雇或讨厌这样的人要困难得多。
4:51:29 At least that’s what I’ve found, and that’s the response that I’ve gotten, that people are like, “Well, I had a certain opinion and then I heard you on Lex.
至少这是我发现的,也是我得到的回应,人们会说,“好吧,我有一定的观点,然后我在 Lex 上听到了你的声音。
That actually sounded much more reasonable.”
这实际上听起来更合理。”
But even more than that, I would love it if people just exercise this kind of approach to other people of, like, assuming they’re a good person.
但更重要的是,如果人们只是对其他人采取这种方法,比如假设他们是一个好人,我会很高兴。
Yes.
是的。
And then, and if they have an opinion you disagree with, they’re a good person who has an opinion.
然后,如果他们有你不同意的观点,他们就是一个有观点的好人。
4:51:53 You can maybe think they’re stupid, fine.
你也许会认为他们很愚蠢,好吧。
Just think they’re lost.
只是认为他们迷路了。
But think of them as a good person.
但把他们视为好人。
I think if you think of, you start, there’s, one of the things that gets engagement is kind of shitting on other people.
我想如果你想到,你开始,有,获得参与的事情之一就是在别人身上拉屎。
Right.
对。
And if you just approach other people as they’re, you’re looking for bad, you will always find bad in them.
如果你只是按照别人的本来面目来对待他们,你就是在寻找不好的地方,你总会发现他们的不好之处。
4:52:12 There’s something annoying about them.
他们有一些令人烦恼的事情。
100%.
100%。
And if you look at people in that way, you’re not gonna learn from it, and you’re gonna fill your heart with hate.
如果你以这种方式看待别人,你就不会从中吸取教训,而且你的心里会充满仇恨。
4:52:21 You’re not gonna, it’s just a bad way to live and to interact with the world, and that is one of the things that the internet kind of encourages, so.
你不会的,这只是一种糟糕的生活方式和与世界互动的方式,而这是互联网鼓励的事情之一,所以。
It’d be nice if you just approach even people who you really disagree with, it’s like, oh, I might learn something from this person.
如果你只是接近那些你真正不同意的人,那就太好了,就像,哦,我可能会从这个人身上学到一些东西。
The Black Panther person, William Buckley, we might hate just love them.
黑豹成员威廉·巴克利(William Buckley),我们可能会讨厌只是喜欢他们。
So microcosm of this.
这是这一切的缩影。
4:52:45 There’s a guy, Theo, I don’t know if you follow him.
有一个人,西奥,我不知道你是否关注他。
Yeah, yeah, yeah.
是啊,是啊,是啊。
We had a bit of a thing over the fact that we stopped using TypeScript-
我们对停止使用 TypeScript 感到有些不满——
Yeah
是啊
…
……
4:52:57 for a project, and he didn’t like that and had opinions about that and other actions.
对于一个项目,他不喜欢这样,并且对此和其他行为有意见。
And after that I thought like, what a bozo.
在那之后我想,真是个笨蛋。
And, and do you know what?
而且,你知道吗?
I still think that was a bozo move, and then I can also think like, well, the dude’s really into AI.
我仍然认为这是一个愚蠢的举动,然后我也可以想,好吧,这家伙真的很喜欢人工智能。
He’s trying all these models, and we can share some excitement about that, so I just started following him yesterday.
他正在尝试所有这些模型,我们可以分享一些对此的兴奋,所以我昨天才开始关注他。
Awesome.
太棒了。
I was like, do you know what?
我当时想,你知道吗?
4:53:16 I don’t have to agree with you on everything.
我不必在所有事情上都同意你的观点。
I don’t even have to like some of the things that you did or said or whatever.
我什至不必喜欢你所做或所说的一些事情。
I can follow you anyway.
无论如何我都可以跟着你。
So if I can follow back Theo, then I think there’s room for world peace here.
因此,如果我能追随西奥,那么我认为这里就有世界和平的空间。
Yeah, he’s actually a really good example.
是的,他实际上是一个很好的例子。
4:53:33 He, he’s really opinionated, changes his mind quite a bit, can get snarky, but I think he’s a good person underneath.
他,他真的很固执己见,经常改变主意,可能会变得尖刻,但我认为他本质上是一个好人。
And either way, I just, you know what?
不管怎样,我只是,你知道吗?
4:53:43 My feed is more interesting when there’s some people talking about things that I care about and yeah, I don’t have to agree with you on everything.
当有人谈论我关心的事情时,我的提要会更有趣,是的,我不必在所有事情上都同意你的观点。
I just don’t.
我只是不知道。
This I found pretty funny, that you mentioned something your wife said that stuck with you, that all this tech-adjacent extreme longevity focus in men is like anorexia in women, a physical manifestation of anxiety and lack of control.
我觉得这很有趣,你提到了你妻子说过的话让你印象深刻,即男性对科技的极端长寿关注就像女性的厌食症一样,是焦虑和缺乏控制的身体表现。
4:53:54 That somehow rang true a little bit.
这听起来有点正确。
It certainly did to a lot of people.
这对很多人来说确实如此。
4:54:13 I think that tweet really popped off, and I don’t know if you noticed, but Bryan Johnson chimed in on the thread, and I could see how Bryan would read that as a bit of a jab.
我认为那条推文真的很流行,我不知道你是否注意到了,但是布莱恩·约翰逊在这条推文中插话,我可以想象布莱恩会如何将其视为一种攻击。
And I do think that Jamie was probably thinking of him amongst other people in that conversation.
我确实认为杰米可能在那次谈话中想到了他和其他人。
And it’s also an example of where even though I’m not subscribing to Bryan’s mission of, I think it’s the slogan’s Don’t Die.
这也是一个例子,尽管我不赞同布莱恩的使命,但我认为这就是口号“不死”。
4:54:54 I actually do wanna die.
其实我真的很想死
I don’t wanna do this forever.
我不想永远这样做。
Like, I think the human lifespan of about 90 to 100 sounds about right.
比如,我认为人类的寿命大约为 90 到 100 岁听起来比较合适。
I’m embracing the finitude of life.
我拥抱生命的有限性。
We don’t have to agree on that.
我们不必在这一点上达成一致。
In fact, Bryan is a vastly more interesting human to me because we don’t agree with that, and Bryan’s willingness to literally put his own skin and all sorts of other body elements in the game for that mission is really interesting.
事实上,布莱恩对我来说是一个更有趣的人,因为我们不同意这一点,而且布莱恩愿意将自己的皮肤和各种其他身体元素放入游戏中来执行该任务,这真的很有趣。
Now, I can have that view—this is really interesting, I’m glad Bryan is pursuing this passion of his—and then also find my wife’s analysis to ring true, that it does seem like there is some underlying, I don’t know, fear of…
现在,我可以有这样的观点——这真的很有趣,我很高兴布莱恩正在追求他的这种激情——然后也发现我妻子的分析是正确的,似乎确实存在一些潜在的、我不知道的恐惧……
4:55:52 I was talking to Jamie yesterday about this, and she was saying or comparing it to this sense of people who didn’t feel like they had lived enough.
昨天我和杰米谈论了这件事,她说或将其与感觉自己活得不够的人的感觉进行比较。
And one of the reasons perhaps that they hadn’t lived enough was that modern society now is a surveillance state, not by the state actually, but by each other.
他们生活不够的原因之一也许是现代社会现在是一个监视国家,实际上不是由国家监视,而是由彼此监视。
There are camera phones everywhere.
到处都有拍照手机。
Every indiscretion or even outburst of fun or cringe is highly likely to be recorded and then shared to the point of ridicule.
每一次轻率行为,甚至是爆发的乐趣或畏缩都极有可能被记录下来,然后被分享到被嘲笑的地步。
And what is the rational reaction for humans under those conditions is to pull back, is to make sure you don’t dance like nobody’s watching because-
在这种情况下,人类的理性反应是退缩,确保你不会像没有人在看一样跳舞,因为——
4:56:35 …
……
they’re probably filming you to your great and eternal embarrassment on the internet, so maybe you just shouldn’t dance at all.
他们可能会在互联网上拍摄你的尴尬场面,所以也许你根本不应该跳舞。
And therefore, if we’ve all retracted to the point that we’re barely living, we’re clinging on to wanting it to last forever.
因此,如果我们都退缩到几乎无法生存的地步,我们就会坚持希望它永远持续下去。
Now-
现在——
4:56:54 …
……
I mean, I’m sure that thesis does not apply in all circumstances.
我的意思是,我确信该论文并不适用于所有情况。
I don’t even know if it applies to Bryan or, or anyone else here.
我什至不知道这是否适用于布莱恩或这里的其他人。
But I think there’s something to this: that if you feel like you’ve really lived, you’re okay thinking I’ve lived enough, and that it having an end is not something to be fought.
但我认为这是有道理的:如果你觉得自己真正活过,你就可以认为我已经活得够多了,而且结局并不是什么值得抗争的事情。
Now, is it also possible that this is all just existential post-rationalization, and if tomorrow there was a live forever pill, we’d all take it?
现在,是否也有可能这一切都只是存在主义的后合理化,如果明天有一种长生不老的药丸,我们都会服用它?
Yeah, that’s possible.
是的,那是可能的。
Is it also possible that if we did that, society would be worse off?
如果我们这样做,社会是否也可能变得更糟?
Yes.
是的。
Is it possible that the human lifespan is the length it is for sociological reasons, not just biological reasons?
人类的寿命是否有可能是出于社会学原因而不仅仅是生物学原因?
Yes.
是的。
4:57:45 So I think these are just all interesting questions, and I just thought her analysis really got to something here.
所以我认为这些都是有趣的问题,我只是认为她的分析确实有意义。
And that discussion has come up afterwards.
这个讨论是后来出现的。
I mean, that, I think that tweet is like a year old.
我的意思是,我认为那条推文已经有一年了。
But just recently, we’ve been talking about this over-optimizers.
但就在最近,我们一直在谈论这种过度优化器。
I saw Chris Williamson, Modern Wisdom had a bit where he was like, “Yeah, okay, maybe we did go a little overboard.” And the triggering thing was the Diary of a CEO, where the host was saying something to the effect of, “I had a glass of wine and the next three days were ruined.”
我看到克里斯·威廉姆森(Chris Williamson)在《现代智慧》中说,“是的,好吧,也许我们确实有点过分了。”触发事件的是《CEO日记》,主持人在其中说了一句话,大意是“我喝了一杯酒,接下来的三天就毁了。”
Okay.
好的。
And that to me, I mean, in his circumstance, I’m sure that’s true.
对我来说,我的意思是,在他的情况下,我确信这是真的。
4:58:20 Like, if you have not drank any alcohol for a very long time and you have just a little, I could see how it can have an effect.
就像,如果你已经很长时间没有喝任何酒了,而你只喝了一点,我可以看到它是如何产生影响的。
But also there’s something in that that just triggered a visceral reaction, I think, for a lot of people, and myself included, where I was like, “Fuck, man, I should have a glass of wine just right now, even though I don’t usually drink.” And in fact I think the alcohol question is a good microcosm to zoom in on.
但我认为,对于很多人来说,包括我自己在内,还有一些东西触发了一种本能反应,我当时想,“操,伙计,我现在应该喝一杯酒,尽管我通常不喝酒。”事实上,我认为酒精问题是一个值得放大的缩影。
So we’ve all stopped drinking apparently, like alcohol sales are way down- …
所以我们显然都已经停止喝酒了,就像酒精销量大幅下降一样——……
certainly amongst young people.
当然在年轻人中。
And then on the one hand, on the pure health metrics, whatever, we can go like, “Oh wow, isn’t that great?”
一方面,就纯粹的健康指标而言,无论如何,我们可以说,“哇哦,这不是很棒吗?”
4:58:58 And then I go like, “Yeah, I’m not so sure it is.” Like the social lubricant that alcohol can provide may be missed, is missed.
然后我会说:“是的,我不太确定是这样。”就像酒精可以提供的社交润滑剂一样,可能会被错过,被错过。
I mean, we are in an absolute epidemic of loneliness and misery and depression and whatever, and a fair amount of it just probably comes because you’re not interacting enough with other people.
我的意思是,我们绝对处于孤独、痛苦、抑郁等流行病之中,其中相当一部分可能是因为你与其他人互动不够。
Now, that’s before we even talk about coupling, right?
现在,那是在我们讨论耦合之前,对吧?
Like way down, people having a very hard time meeting a spouse.
就像往下一样,人们很难见到配偶。
And-
还有——
4:59:27 …
……
a lot of that has moved over to apps that have all sorts of negative outcomes and consequences, right?
其中很多已经转移到具有各种负面结果和后果的应用程序,对吧?
Like maybe we will look back, or maybe we already are looking back and thinking like, “Eh, do you know what?
也许我们会回顾过去,或者也许我们已经在回顾过去并思考,“呃,你知道吗?
Maybe getting wasted every once in a while was not the worst thing in the world.” And whether wasted or not, maybe just having a couple of drinks every Friday or Saturday when you’re out and about was part of what helped society get to where it is.
也许偶尔被浪费并不是世界上最糟糕的事情。”不管是否浪费,也许每个周五或周六外出时喝几杯酒就是帮助社会达到现在的样子的一部分。
Maybe the fact that humans have literally been drinking for whatever it is, like 13,000 years fermenting things, had a social purpose, and we pull out Chesterton’s fence of our own chagrin, right?
也许事实上,人类一直在喝酒,不管它是什么,就像 13,000 年发酵的东西一样,有一个社会目的,而我们却因为自己的懊恼而拔出了切斯特顿的栅栏,对吗?
As you mentioned, in the spirit of that, so when I traveled across rural China, I did smoke a little bit in, in my early 20s, but I picked up just for that trip-
正如你提到的,本着这一精神,当我穿越中国农村时,我在 20 岁出头的时候确实吸了一点烟,但我只是为了那次旅行才吸了烟——
A social connector, right?
社交连接器,对吧?
And I drank humongous amounts, even though I don’t really drink these days, because of the social thing.
我喝了很多酒,尽管这些天我因为社交的原因并没有真正喝酒。
5:00:22 It’s the way they show love.
这是他们表达爱的方式。
And I also ate shitload of carbs, which- …
我还吃了一大堆碳水化合物,这——……
I’m usually low carb.
我通常是低碳水化合物。
I just like meat.
我就是喜欢肉。
So just because it’s the way they show love.
因为这是他们表达爱的方式。
And actually even, it’s in that society cigarettes, but in most societies, liquor is a thing to do together.
事实上,在那个社会里香烟是,但在大多数社会里,酒是一件可以一起做的事情。
And it’s a bond.
这是一种纽带。
The benefits that that entails can, in many situations, outweigh the negative consequences like long-term for whatever, however you measure them.
在许多情况下,无论你如何衡量,其带来的好处都可能超过长期的负面后果。
And this is the myopia of modernity, that we reduce things down to like, well, one glass on this long run study meant that you had a 0.1% greater risk of some heart defect.
这就是现代性的短视,我们把事情简化为,嗯,在这项长期研究中,一杯就意味着你患某些心脏缺陷的风险增加了 0.1%。
5:01:02 Yes, but if you didn’t live at all, what’s the point?
是的,但如果你根本就没有活着,那还有什么意义呢?
And again, it’s also easy to flip over the other side.
再说一遍,翻转另一面也很容易。
Like the only way to live is to get drunk every weekend and eat a bunch of crap and smoke 40 cigarettes a day.
就像唯一的生活方式就是每个周末喝醉、吃一堆垃圾、每天抽 40 支烟。
No, it’s not.
不,不是。
Like it doesn’t have to be the either/or.
就像它不一定是非此即彼。
This is one of the reasons I stopped wearing my Oura Ring.
这是我不再佩戴大浦戒指的原因之一。
So I wore the Oura sleep ring for many years, four years.
所以我戴着Oura睡环很多年了,四年了。
And one day I was just like, “I don’t need to know that I had-” …
有一天,我就像是,“我不需要知道我有——”......
“a bad night of sleep.” Like I know.
“一夜没睡好。”据我所知。
This added, I don’t wanna call it an anxiety, I don’t have a lot of anxiety, but this added just like reminder-
这补充说,我不想称之为焦虑,我没有太多焦虑,但这只是提醒——
5:01:55 …
……
that I had a bad night of sleep, what purpose is it actually playing here?
我昨晚睡得很不好,它在这里播放的目的到底是什么?
Why do I need to have all these stats?
为什么我需要所有这些统计数据?
Why do I need to optimize everything?
为什么我需要优化一切?
To the point where, again, after that single anecdote, you know, from Diary of a CEO, I was like, “Fuck, I kind of want the opposite.” Like- I don’t barely drink at all.
以至于,在《首席执行官日记》中的那件轶事之后,我又想,“操,我想要相反的东西。”就像——我几乎不喝酒。
I, a glass of wine once a month maybe.
我,也许每个月喝一次酒。
Like, do you know what?
比如,你知道什么吗?
I should start just on the weekends, get a glass.
我应该从周末开始,喝一杯。
Maybe two.
也许是两个。
5:02:25 And also, I mean, I’ve never been the person to fret about my diet.
而且,我的意思是,我从来都不是一个担心自己饮食的人。
This is one of the great privileges of being married to—and I’ll do a quick aside here.
这是结婚的一大荣幸——我在这里先简单说一下。
Don’t ever call a woman in her 40s a wonderful woman.
永远不要称 40 多岁的女人为出色的女人。
My wife was so pissed…
我的妻子非常生气...
that not only last year did I come on her birthday, that was bad enough, but that I called her a wonderful woman on the show, because that sounded like her name was Nancy and she was 65— …
我不仅去年在她生日那天来过,这已经够糟糕了,而且我在节目中称她为一位出色的女性,因为听起来她的名字是南希,她已经 65 岁了……
in the suburb of Rochester.
在罗切斯特郊区。
So I’m like, I was trying to play the 50.
所以我想,我想打50号球。
Like, no, I don’t know, I’m Danish.
就像,不,我不知道,我是丹麦人。
How, how would I know?
我怎么知道?
But that didn’t go over well.
但进展并不顺利。
So I’m gonna say awesome woman instead.
所以我会说“很棒的女人”。
5:03:07 If you marry an awesome woman who also not only knows how to cook, but enjoys it do you know what?
如果你嫁给一个很棒的女人,她不仅会做饭,而且喜欢做饭,你知道吗?
There’s a very traditional division of labor here that has been quite stable through several …
这里有一种非常传统的劳动分工,经过几个世纪的发展,这种分工已经相当稳定……
tens of thousands of years in human societies, that perhaps also wasn’t the worst idea in the world.
人类社会已经存在了数万年了,这或许也不是世界上最糟糕的想法。
And I also know there are plenty of men who like to cook, and there are women who don’t.
我还知道有很多男人喜欢做饭,也有很多女人不喜欢做饭。
But as stereotypes go, eh, that certainly helped me.
但随着刻板印象的发展,呃,这确实对我有帮助。
Like, I don’t think I would’ve been able to just be as relaxed about food if I didn’t eat relatively healthy on a regular basis.
就像,我认为如果我不定期吃相对健康的食物,我就无法对食物如此放松。
But the overall point being just getting out of that optimization game without turning into the opposite.
但总体而言,只是摆脱优化游戏,而不会变成相反的情况。
You don’t have to be a fat slob on the couch either.
你也不必是沙发上的胖子。
You can move around.
你可以四处走动。
Yeah.
是的。
5:03:59 And then the bigger point we’re talking about is the finiteness of life.
然后我们谈论的更重要的一点是生命的有限性。
Yes.
是的。
And I agree with you on this.
我同意你的观点。
This was actually a feature, I built it into Omarchy.
这实际上是一个功能,我将其内置到 Omarchy 中。
5:04:06 So memento mori.
所以纪念死亡。
Remember death.
记住死亡。
If you pull down the calendar in Amaci, you open it by clicking the clock.
如果您在 Amici 中下拉日历,则可以通过单击时钟将其打开。
It opens up, and the first funny thing, I took it off the internet.
它打开了,第一个有趣的事情是,我把它从互联网上删除了。
There’s this account called Years Progress, and it, every day it updates, and it just shows 63% done with 2026.
有一个名为“Years Progress”的帐户,它每天都会更新,并且只显示 2026 年已完成 63%。
I don’t know if you’ve seen that one.
我不知道你是否见过那个。
So it just fills up.
所以它就填满了。
So I built that into the calendar.
所以我把它纳入日历中。
So right now it says, “We’re 63% done with 2026.” But then if you double-click that, it’ll ask you, “When were you born?
所以现在它说,“2026 年我们已经完成了 63%。”但如果你双击它,它会问你:“你什么时候出生的?
How long do you expect to live?” And the default is 90.
你预计还能活多久?”默认值为 90。
So I put in 1979.
所以我输入了1979年。
And then right below the line of, like, how long are we done with the year-
然后就在下面,比如,我们这一年还有多久——
Oh, that’s beautiful.
哦,那很漂亮。
…
……
5:04:47 is a new line that shows how long are you done with your life.
是一条新线,显示您的人生已经结束了多久。
I think I’m at 62%.
我想我是62%。
I’m like, if you hover over it, it says, “Memento mori.”
我想,如果你将鼠标悬停在它上面,它会写着“Memento mori”。
That’s beautiful.
那好美丽。
Fair number of people found it morbid, but this was why it is an Easter egg.
相当多的人认为它是病态的,但这就是为什么它是复活节彩蛋。
5:04:57 It’s not, like, exposed.
它不像暴露的那样。
You gotta click a few things to get there.
你必须点击一些东西才能到达那里。
I like the reminder.
我喜欢这个提醒。
I like the reminder that time is finite, and I should make the most of it.
我喜欢提醒我时间是有限的,我应该充分利用它。
And this is also one of the privileges of having children.
而这也是生孩子的特权之一。
You really realize that the cliches are all true.
你真的意识到那些陈词滥调都是真的。
Oh my God, it goes so fast.
天哪,时间过得真快。
And I remember my now 13-year-old being one, being two.
我记得我现在 13 岁了,当时是一岁,还是两岁。
I was like, “This was just yesterday.” And the reason it’s a cliche is because it’s a shared experience.
我当时想,“这只是昨天。”它之所以成为陈词滥调,是因为它是一种共同的经历。
Cliches are good.
陈词滥调是好的。
They remind you that you are part of the human experience, and others have been here before you.
它们提醒你,你是人类经历的一部分,而其他人在你之前就已经存在过。
I have to ask, you mentioned the amazing woman and great cook.
我不得不问,你提到了那位了不起的女人和出色的厨师。
Amazing.
惊人的。
Amazing.
惊人的。
Very important to remember.
记住非常重要。
5:05:44 Not wonderful, amazing.
不美妙,令人惊奇。
Amazing.
惊人的。
5:05:47 So there’s this…
所以就有了这个……
You talked some shit about croissants or something.
你说了些关于牛角面包之类的废话。
I saw this in a tweet.
我在推文中看到了这一点。
So is the Danish croissant somehow better?
那么丹麦羊角面包是不是更好一些呢?
Actually, Danish croissants are not particularly good.
其实丹麦牛角面包并不是特别好吃。
5:05:59 In my opinion, the only place you can find a half-decent croissant, of all places, is 7-Eleven, which is hilarious to me because 7-Eleven in the US is the place where, at least in Chicago, you’d go to get a slushie and try to avoid getting murdered.
在我看来,在所有地方中,唯一能找到半像样的羊角面包的地方是 7-11,这对我来说很搞笑,因为在美国的 7-11 是一个地方,至少在芝加哥,你会去买一杯冰沙,并尽量避免被谋杀。
But in Denmark, 7-Eleven is this very upscale, super nice convenience store, and they just happen to make decent croissants.
但在丹麦,7-11是一家非常高档、超级好的便利店,而且他们恰好制作了不错的牛角面包。
And it always baffled me that I lived in the United States for 20 freaking years.
我在美国生活了 20 年,这一直让我感到困惑。
I have yet to have a single croissant that’s even at the level of a 7-Eleven croissant in Copenhagen.
我还没有吃过一个羊角面包能达到哥本哈根 7-11 便利店羊角面包的水平。
That seems improbable.
这似乎不太可能。
Have you understood why?
你明白为什么吗?
No, I’ve legitimately considered hiring an investigative journalist to get to the bottom of this, because the number of theories I’ve heard have been all over the place.
不,我有正当理由考虑聘请一名调查记者来查明此事的真相,因为我听到的理论数量五花八门。
5:06:43 It’s the water.
这是水。
It’s the butter.
这是黄油。
It’s the skill.
这就是技能。
It’s the this, it’s the that, it’s the other thing.
这是这个,这是那个,这是另一件事。
I’m like, none of it adds up to me.
我想,这些都不适合我。
If it’s the butter, can’t you just import it?
如果是黄油的话,直接进口不行吗?
I thought I saw Danish butter in some supermarkets over here at the Lurpak.
我想我在 Lurpak 的一些超市看到了丹麦黄油。
So that can’t be it.
所以不可能是这样。
Can it be the skill?
可以是技能吗?
No, it can’t be the skill.
不,这不可能是技能。
There are plenty of French people and Belgian people, the best croissant makers in the world, who live in the US.
美国有很多法国人和比利时人,他们是世界上最好的羊角面包制造商。
Like, what is the reason?
比如,是什么原因?
And then I get the second thing, which is- …
然后我得到第二件事,那就是——……
“No, no, you just haven’t gone to the right place.” I’ve literally gone to 15 of quote unquote-
“不不不,你只是没来对地方。”我确实已经读到了 15 条不引用的内容——
5:07:25 …
……
“the right place,” and all the croissants were shit.
“正确的地方”,所有的羊角面包都是屎。
So before I leave the planet, I have to get to the bottom of why the United States cannot make a proper croissant.
因此,在我离开地球之前,我必须弄清楚为什么美国无法制作出合适的牛角面包。
And I don’t, I’m not even asking about peak French croissants, peak Belgian croissants- …
我不知道,我什至没有问顶级的法国牛角面包、顶级的比利时牛角面包——……
which are the best croissants in the world.
这是世界上最好的羊角面包。
I’m just asking about the 7-Eleven croissant from Copenhagen.
我只是想问一下哥本哈根 7-11 的羊角面包。
Is that too much to ask for?
这样的要求是否太过分了?
That’s a fascinating mystery.
这是一个令人着迷的谜团。
5:07:49 What, zooming out, what’s your favorite…
什么,缩小,你最喜欢什么......
This makes me wanna know, what’s your favorite meal?
这让我想知道,你最喜欢吃什么?
Like, if you, if I gave you a last meal and were to murder you after.
就像,如果你,如果我给了你最后一顿饭,然后杀了你。
It all depends whether it’s lunch or it’s dinner.
这完全取决于是午餐还是晚餐。
5:08:02 If it’s lunch-
如果是午餐的话——
It’s one meal.
这是一顿饭。
5:08:05 What’s…
什么是……
I feel like if you’re getting murdered, it doesn’t really matter if it’s lunch or dinner.
我觉得如果你被谋杀了,午餐或晚餐并不重要。
Well, it depends on what time of day you’re getting murdered.
好吧,这取决于你一天中的什么时间被谋杀。
Oh, I see.
我懂了。
If it’s an afternoon execution, I only get lunch.
如果是下午执行,我就只吃午餐。
Okay.
好的。
And if I get lunch, it’s at Louisiana, the museum north of Copenhagen.
如果我吃午饭,那就是在路易斯安那州,哥本哈根北部的博物馆。
5:08:19 I was just there with Jamie two days ago, and we go there all the time.
两天前我刚刚和杰米一起去过那里,我们一直都去那里。
The museum is lovely.
博物馆很可爱。
We don’t go for the museum.
我们不去博物馆。
We go for the cafeteria.
我们去自助餐厅。
That in itself sounds crazy.
这本身听起来很疯狂。
Like-
就像-
Yeah, it does.
是的,确实如此。
…
……
5:08:40 you’re gonna, you’re gonna drive half an hour to go to a cafeteria.
你会,你会开车半个小时去一家自助餐厅。
Well, it just so happens to be, it is the best lunch I’ve probably ever had in my life.
好吧,碰巧的是,这可能是我一生中吃过的最好的午餐。
The chef there is just unbelievably good, and not only is the food amazing, what’s even more amazing to my systems-thinking brain is that at any one time when we were up there, I think there were probably 200 people waiting for their food.
那里的厨师棒极了,不仅食物很棒,更让我的系统思维大脑感到惊讶的是,当我们在那里的任何时候,我想可能有 200 个人在等待他们的食物。
Oh, shit.
妈的。
And our food was delivered in five minutes.
我们的食物在五分钟内就送来了。
5:09:04 They have a small menu, and clearly they make it in bulk, and it’s unbelievably delicious.
他们的菜单很小,而且显然是批量制作的,而且非常美味。
Just a cafeteria at a museum?
只是博物馆的自助餐厅吗?
It’s a cafeteria at a museum that happens to have the best lunch I’ve ever had anywhere in my life.
这是一家博物馆的自助餐厅,恰好提供了我一生中吃过的最好的午餐。
What ki- what kind of food are we talking about?
What ki-我们在谈论什么样的食物?
5:09:21 What’s, what kind of lunch food?
什么,午餐吃什么?
It’s, like, Nordic cuisine, so it’s, it’s…
这就像北欧美食,所以它是……
5:09:23 A funny thing is the menu, when I looked at it, I was like, “Do you know what?
有趣的是菜单,当我看着它时,我想,“你知道吗?
If I saw this menu…” As a kid, I’d go like, “I’m not eating here.”
如果我看到这个菜单……”小时候,我会说,“我不在这里吃饭。”
Okay.
好的。
It’s like, I don’t know-
就像,我不知道——
This is pretty fancy.
这很花哨。
…
……
5:09:33 root free fruit and- …
无根水果和-...
and onions- …
还有洋葱——……
and all sorts of healthy stuff.
和各种健康的东西。
That sounds disgusting.
听起来很恶心。
And then you sit down and eat it, and the angels sing.
然后你坐下来吃它,天使们就会唱歌。
But it’s even more particular than that.
但它比这更特别。
It’s the butter.
这是黄油。
The whipped butter that they have there, the best butter anywhere in the world.
他们那里的生黄油是世界上最好的黄油。
I think that has to be connected to the croissant mystery too.
我认为这也与牛角面包之谜有关。
There, there must be some connection.
那里,一定有某种联系。
5:09:52 But literally- …
但从字面上看——……
even in Paris, I’ve never had whipped butter that tastes as delicious as the butter does at Louisiana in Copenhagen.
即使在巴黎,我也从未吃过像哥本哈根路易斯安那州的黄油那样美味的生黄油。
Literally, I would drive 30 minutes- …
从字面上看,我会开车 30 分钟——……
to have bread and butter at the cafeteria in Louisiana.
在路易斯安那州的自助餐厅吃面包和黄油。
Well, how’d you discover that?
嗯,你是怎么发现的?
5:10:10 Just one day you went to the museum and-
就在有一天你去了博物馆,然后——
I think we just went to the museum-
我想我们刚刚去了博物馆-
And you tried a whole dish?
你尝过一整道菜吗?
…
……
5:10:15 and we had the lunch, and we were like…
我们吃了午餐,我们就像……
This is weird.
这很奇怪。
This is rivaling the best tasting restaurants- …
这可以与最美味的餐厅相媲美——……
5:10:20 I’ve ever been to in my life, and I’ve gone to Noma a couple of times and tried what there is to try, and this is right up there.
我一生中去过几次,也去过诺玛几次,尝试了所有可以尝试的事情,而这就是那里。
All right.
好的。
5:10:31 What about dinner, since you mentioned?
既然你提到了,晚餐怎么样?
Is it something different that you have to think-
你必须思考一些不同的事情吗?
Well, I think there’s a lot of good options in Copenhagen, but actually I’ll pick a place in Spain.
嗯,我认为哥本哈根有很多不错的选择,但实际上我会选择西班牙的地方。
5:10:36 So there is this place in Marbella called Puente Romano.
所以在马贝拉有一个地方叫罗马桥(Puente Romano)。
It’s a hotel, and down by the beach, they have this beach restaurant with fresh seafood.
这是一家酒店,在海滩旁边,他们有一家海滩餐厅,提供新鲜的海鲜。
Unbelievably delicious.
难以置信的美味。
I’m trying to remember what it’s called, but yeah, if you look it up, the beach seafood place at Puente Romano is incredible.
我正在努力记住它叫什么,但是,是的,如果你查一下,罗马桥的海滩海鲜店非常棒。
How much of great food is, like, the place and the person you’re with, right?
有多少美味佳肴取决于与你在一起的地方和人,对吗?
5:11:08 Or the experience when you first are there?
或者说你第一次来的时候的经历?
I mean, the ambiance certainly helps, but I think my taste buds are also just-
我的意思是,氛围当然有帮助,但我认为我的味蕾也只是 -
Okay, that-
好吧,那个——
…
……
5:11:22 in tune for-
符合-
So it’s legit,
所以这是合法的,
…
……
5:11:23 flavors
口味
…
……
5:11:24 it is just good food.
这只是美味的食物。
It’s just really good food.
这真是美味的食物。
Because for ex- that cafeteria, there’s a lot of people.
因为前那个食堂,人很多。
Like I wouldn’t rate it as like, oh my God, this is just a place I want to sit for two hours.
就像我不会评价它一样,天哪,这只是一个我想坐两个小时的地方。
But the food is so delicious.
但食物实在是太美味了。
That’s one of the things I’m, in traveling across the country, I’m realizing to sample without bias, just try things.
这是我在全国各地旅行时所做的事情之一,我意识到要不带偏见地进行采样,只是尝试一下。
5:11:37 ‘Cause you I guess you might just be surprised.
因为我猜你可能会感到惊讶。
Maybe I’ll find your croissant.
也许我会找到你的羊角面包。
All right, we’ve talked about mortality.
好吧,我们已经讨论了死亡率。
We talked about food.
我们谈论了食物。
Settled end of life.
生命终结已定。
A thousand years from now, what do you think is the future of humans, human civilization?
一千年后,你认为人类、人类文明的未来是什么?
5:11:58 You think we’re gonna make it?
你认为我们能成功吗?
A thousand years from now?
一千年后?
Yeah.
是的。
Man, I’m having trouble predicting 12 months from now.
伙计,我很难预测 12 个月后的情况。
I know.
我知道。
A thousand?
一千?
You think we got a shot?
你认为我们有机会吗?
Oh, I’m gonna bet on optimism.
哦,我赌乐观。
5:12:11 I’m gonna bet on a multi-planetary species.
我要赌一个多行星物种。
I’m gonna bet that Elon gets that rocket to Mars, and we figure out how to bend space-time and discover some wormholes or, or something.
我敢打赌埃隆会把火箭送上火星,我们就会弄清楚如何弯曲时空并发现一些虫洞之类的东西。
Once we do, do you think, you think all humans on Earth will die once or twice and be repopulated after we get a good backup going?
一旦我们做到了,你认为地球上的所有人类都会死一两次,并在我们得到良好的后备后重新繁衍吗?
I mean, that was actually one of my favorite episodes of Black Mirror, the one where they get uploaded to the 1980s sea town somewhere.
我的意思是,这实际上是我最喜欢的《黑镜》剧集之一,它们被上传到 20 世纪 80 年代的海滨小镇的某个地方。
5:12:35 And I just thought like, wow, this is both such a dark moment, yet also so beautiful in the shared recognition that, like, the ’80s were actually kind of amazing.
我只是想,哇,这既是一个黑暗的时刻,但在共同的认识中也如此美丽,就像 80 年代实际上有点令人惊奇。
Like, I don’t have a lot of nostalgia for many moments, but I do have nostalgia for the ’80s.
就像,我对很多时刻没有太多怀旧之情,但我确实对 80 年代怀旧。
But-
但是——
And they say something about, like, whatever place and time you were in, the music you were listening to when you were 12 or- …
他们会说,比如,无论你在什么地方、什么时间,你 12 岁时听的音乐,或者——……
5:13:01 or 14, 15, something like that, that’s what’s gonna stick with you.
或者 14、15 之类的,这会让你印象深刻。
Like, no, I was only, I got to be 10 in the ’80s.
就像,不,我只是,我在 80 年代才 10 岁。
So this was my early childhood, and I still have an unbelievably fond affiliation with the ’80s.
这就是我的童年,至今我仍然对 80 年代有着难以置信的喜爱。
So if I’m gonna be uploaded to the sky-
所以如果我要上传到天空-
You want it to be the ’80s.
你希望它是 80 年代。
…
……
5:13:24 I’m doing the ’80s.
我正在做80年代的事情。
Wow.
哇。
5:13:26 I don’t think I’ve actually ever heard anyone say that.
我想我实际上从来没有听过有人这么说过。
Usually it’s ’70s or ’90s.
通常是 70 年代或 90 年代。
Oh, and the-
哦,还有-
Because the ’80s is a-
因为八十年代是一个——
I really don’t like the ’90s.
我真的不喜欢90年代。
5:13:32 Can we talk about this?
我们可以谈谈这个吗?
No, I’m done.
不,我已经完成了。
5:13:38 Not done.
没有完成。
To me, this was the great turning point of nihilism.
对我来说,这是虚无主义的伟大转折点。
5:13:40 That both the music, the genre, the fashion- …
音乐、流派、时尚——……
everything turned from, like, this glamour, the pop, the optimism, even the yuppies and everything- …
一切都源于,比如,这种魅力、流行、乐观,甚至是雅皮士和一切——……
to grunge and Nirvana.
垃圾摇滚和涅槃。
And even though, I mean, I like the music, I don’t like the ethics.
即使如此,我的意思是,我喜欢音乐,但我不喜欢道德。
I don’t like- …
我不喜欢——……
the morals.
道德。
I don’t like any of the underpinnings to it.
我不喜欢它的任何基础。
There was just such a defeatism to it- …
这实在是一种失败主义——……
that in retrospect, I look back upon it, if I’m gonna get reinserted into the matrix, it’s gonna be the ’80s.
回想起来,如果我要重新插入矩阵,那将是 80 年代。
That was full of optimism and fun- …
那充满了乐观和乐趣——……
5:14:17 and colors.
和颜色。
Yes.
是的。
5:14:22 I remember having these orange pants- …
我记得有这条橙色的裤子-...
with, like, white dots on them.
上面有类似白点的东西。
That was just a normal thing kids could wear in the ’80s.
这只是 80 年代孩子们穿的很正常的事情。
I’ve never fucking seen that today.
我今天从来没见过这样的事。
Or I mean, even in the ’90s, it all turned just, like, Seattle gray.
或者我的意思是,即使在 90 年代,一切都变成了西雅图灰色。
Great regression.
大回归。
So the Nietzschean, you know, this idea of eternal recurrence.
所以尼采,你知道,这种永恒轮回的想法。
5:14:46 If you do a Groundhog Day and you live forever, you want it to be in the orange pants with the white dots in the ’80s.
如果你参加《土拨鼠之日》并获得永生,你会希望穿着 80 年代带有白点的橙色裤子。
Maybe I’m gonna skip the orange pants, but- …
也许我会跳过橙色裤子,但是——……
5:14:56 I’m definitely picking the ’80s.
我肯定会选择 80 年代。
You said it.
你说过了。
5:14:58 All right, DHH.
好吧,DHH。
Thank you so much for everything you do.
非常感谢你所做的一切。
Thank you for being an inspiration to all of us, for building cool shit in the world, and thank you for talking today.
感谢您给我们所有人带来了灵感,感谢您在世界上创造了很酷的东西,也感谢您今天的发言。
Anytime.
任何时候。
5:15:11 Thank you, Lex, again for having me.
莱克斯,再次感谢你邀请我。
Yeah.
是的。
5:15:15 Thanks for listening to this conversation with DHH.
感谢您收听 DHH 的对话。
To support this podcast, please check out our sponsors in the description, where you can also find links to contact me, ask questions, give feedback, and so on.
为了支持这个播客,请在描述中查看我们的赞助商,您还可以在其中找到联系我、提出问题、提供反馈等的链接。
And now, let me leave you with some words from Ralph Waldo Emerson.
现在,让我向你们介绍拉尔夫·沃尔多·爱默生的一些话。
“Once you make a decision, the universe conspires to make it happen.” Thank you for listening, and hope to see you next time.
“一旦你做出决定,宇宙就会合力让你实现。”感谢您的收听,希望下次再见。
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