Tom Tugendhat on Modernizing the UK and Political Reform (Ep. 223 - BONUS)
Thank you to listener Joshua Ehrlich for sponsoring this transcript.
感谢听众约书亚·埃利希 (Joshua Ehrlich) 赞助这份文字记录。
Today I’m chatting with Tom Tugendhat.
今天我正在和汤姆·图根哈特聊天。
Tom has served as a member of parliament for Tonbridge since 2015.
Tom 自 2015 年起担任汤布里奇议会议员。
He has served as security minister.
他曾担任安全部长。
He has also stood up to the UK’s enemies and been sanctioned by Russia, China, and Iran for that privilege.
他还勇敢地面对英国的敌人，并因此受到俄罗斯、中国和伊朗的制裁。
As a backbencher, Tom was elected by MPs to serve as the chair of the Foreign Affairs Committee.
作为后座议员，汤姆被国会议员选举为外交事务委员会主席。
Before being elected as an MP, Tom served in military operations in Iraq and Afghanistan.
在当选议员之前，汤姆曾在伊拉克和阿富汗的军事行动中服役。
He’s worked for the Foreign Office, helped to set up the National Security Council of Afghanistan, and on returning to the UK, Tom served as military assistant to the Chief of the Fefense Staff, the professional head of the UK armed forces.
他曾在外交部工作，帮助建立了阿富汗国家安全委员会，返回英国后，汤姆担任英国武装部队专业负责人、国防参谋长的军事助理。
Tom, welcome.
汤姆，欢迎。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
It’s lovely to see you.
很高兴见到你。
Forgive me, I’ve just been interrupted by a child.
原谅我，我刚刚被一个孩子打扰了。
Children are welcome.
欢迎儿童入住。
It’s my boy, Adam.
这是我的儿子，亚当。
This is my boy, Adam.
这是我的儿子，亚当。
Hi, Adam.
嗨，亚当。
Good to see you again.
很高兴再次见到你。
You probably don’t remember me.
你可能不记得我了。
Do you remember Tyler?
你还记得泰勒吗？
You met Tyler.
你遇见了泰勒。
No, I don’t remember.
不，我不记得了。
You did meet Tyler, yes.
你确实见过泰勒，是的。
I don’t remember.
我不记得了。
Oh, I’m sorry, his memory isn’t as good as yours.
哦，对不起，他的记忆力不如你。
That’s fine.
没关系。
Adam, please, can you leave me alone?
亚当，求你了，你能放过我吗？
How old was I?
我那时几岁？
A few years ago.
几年前。
Go on.
继续。
Two years ago.
两年前。
Two years ago.
两年前。
Exactly.
确切地。
Can you close the door, please?
请把门关上好吗？
Sorry, I apologize for that.
抱歉，我为此道歉。
Don’t worry.
不用担心。
No problem.
没问题。
You know the famous Korean clip —
你知道韩国著名的剪辑吗 ——
Yes.
是的。
— on CNN?
——CNN？
It’s one of the greatest TV episodes of all time, and it’s fully natural.
这是有史以来最伟大的电视剧之一，而且是完全自然的。
On London
关于伦敦
Okay.
好的。
First question, what is your favorite walk around London, and what does it show about the city that outsiders might not understand?
第一个问题，您最喜欢在伦敦散步的什么？它向外界展示了这座城市的哪些外人可能不了解的信息？
Oh, my favorite walk is down the river.
哦，我最喜欢的散步是沿着河走。
A lot of people walk down the river.
很多人沿着河走。
One of the best things about walking down the river in London is, first of all, it shows two things.
在伦敦沿河漫步的最好的事情之一是，首先，它表明了两件事。
One, that London is actually an incredibly private place.
第一，伦敦实际上是一个非常私密的地方。
You can be completely on your own in the center of one of the biggest cities in the world within seconds, just by walking down the river.
只需沿着河走，几秒钟之内，您就可以完全独自一人到达世界上最大的城市之一的中心。
Very often, even in the middle of the day, there’s nobody there.
很多时候，即使是在中午，那里也没有人。
You walk past things that are just extraordinary.
你走过的都是非同寻常的事物。
You walk past a customs house.
你走过一个海关大楼。
It’s not used anymore, but it was the customs house for 300, 400, 500 years.
它不再使用了，但它作为海关大楼已有 300 年、400 年、500 年之久。
You walk past, obviously, the Tower of London.
显然，你走过伦敦塔。
You walk past Tower Bridge.
你走过塔桥。
You walk past many things like that.
你走过很多这样的事情。
Actually, you’re walking past a lot of modern London as well, and you see the reality of London, which is — the truth is, London isn’t a single city.
事实上，你也走过了很多现代伦敦，你看到了伦敦的现实，那就是——事实上，伦敦不是一个单独的城市。
It’s many, many different villages, all cobbled together in various different ways.
有很多很多不同的村庄，都以各种不同的方式拼凑在一起。
I think outsiders miss the fact that there’s a real intimacy to London that you miss if all you’re doing is you’re going on the Tube, or if you’re going on the bus.
我认为外人会错过这样一个事实：如果你只是乘坐地铁或乘坐公共汽车，那么你就会错过伦敦真正的亲密感。
If you walk down that river, you see a very, very different kind of London.
如果你沿着那条河走，你会看到一个非常非常不同的伦敦。
You see real communities and real smaller communities.
您会看到真实的社区和真正的较小社区。
As a question of governance, how does London becoming so large, so wealthy, so successful, mesh with the relatively weak federalism of the UK?
作为治理问题，伦敦变得如此庞大、如此富裕、如此成功，如何与英国相对薄弱的联邦制相融合？
One might think if you have a city that critical, you need a lot of federalism to build up the intermediary bodies governing it.
人们可能会认为，如果你有一个如此关键的城市，你就需要大量的联邦制来建立管理它的中介机构。
Does something there need to be changed, or is it optimal as is?
是否需要改变某些东西，或者现在的情况是否是最佳的？
I think it does need to be changed.
我认为确实需要改变。
The reality is the UK is a very, very centralized state.
现实是英国是一个非常非常集权的国家。
Although there is a mayor of London — of course there’s a mayor of London — the reality is the mayor has very, very limited powers.
尽管有伦敦市长 ——当然有伦敦市长 ——但现实是市长的权力非常非常有限。
They control transport for London.
他们控制着伦敦的交通。
They are joint heads of the city police force, the Metropolitan Police, the home secretary — so our interior minister and the mayor of London both have the ability to fire the commissioner of the Metropolitan Police.
他们是城市警察部队、大都会警察局、内政大臣的联合首长——所以我们的内政部长和伦敦市长都有能力解雇大都会警察局局长。
The mayor has certain rights, or rather powers, on planning, but that’s actually mixed with the boroughs as well.
市长在规划方面拥有一定的权利，或者更确切地说是权力，但这实际上也与行政区混合在一起。
It’s a much more diffuse system.
这是一个更加分散的系统。
If you compare it to the United States, it’s nowhere near as powerful as the mayor of New York, for example, or a regional governor or something like that, or a state governor.
如果你把它与美国相比，它的权力远不如纽约市长，或者地区州长之类的，或者州州长。
How should we change that to make London better governed?
我们应该如何改变这一现状以使伦敦得到更好的治理？
I think the big thing for London, actually, is to make sure that its transport connections to the region are stronger.
事实上，我认为对伦敦来说最重要的是确保其与该地区的交通联系更加紧密。
The real holdup for the whole of the United Kingdom is the lack of infrastructure investment over whatever it is, 30, 40 years.
整个英国的真正阻碍是三十年、四十年来缺乏基础设施投资。
We’ve just seen Crossrail built, and already it looks like it’s going to be at break-even point in the next five or six years, which is a remarkable speed of return.
我们刚刚看到横贯铁路建成，看起来它将在未来五六年内达到收支平衡点，这是一个惊人的回报速度。
The reason for the speed of the return is, frankly, that so little other infrastructure has been built.
坦率地说，回归速度如此之快的原因是其他基础设施建设太少。
So it’s not quite a monopoly provider status, but you know what I mean.
所以这不完全是垄断供应商的地位，但你知道我的意思。
It’s got such a dominant ability to provide for the community that it’s making a huge difference.
它具有为社区提供服务的主导能力，能够产生巨大的变化。
The biggest thing that London could do is to get the investment going, but it’s not just true of London.
伦敦能做的最重要的事情就是推动投资，但这不仅仅适用于伦敦。
That’s true of Manchester, Birmingham, all of our cities, and all of our towns as well.
曼彻斯特、伯明翰、我们所有的城市以及我们所有的城镇都是如此。
We need a massive injection of infrastructure investment in the United Kingdom, and we need the leadership to provide it.
我们需要向英国注入大量基础设施投资，并且需要领导力来提供这一投资。
Because if you look at the pattern of growth of the United Kingdom, we were growing at a very healthy percentage, 2 percent to 3 percent up until 2007, ’08.
因为如果你看看英国的增长模式，你会发现我们的增长速度非常健康，直到 2007 年、08 年为止，增长率为 2% 到 3%。
The fall-off since then has left us effectively, depending on who you ask, anywhere between 18 percent and 25 percent poorer.
从那时起，经济衰退实际上让我们变得贫穷了 18% 到 25%，这取决于你问的是谁。
Why do you think England in particular is so unbalanced economically compared, say, to the Netherlands or Germany?
您认为为什么与荷兰或德国相比，英国在经济上尤其如此不平衡？
What is it in the history, or is it really just the infrastructure links?
历史上有什么，或者真的只是基础设施链接？
The infrastructure is hugely important.
基础设施非常重要。
If you’re not willing to connect Britain, guess what?
如果您不愿意连接英国，猜猜怎么着？
You get concentrations.
你会得到浓度。
You get real concentrations.
你会得到真正的专注。
Then the challenge is you get the concentrations, you don’t get the housing.
那么挑战是你得到了集中，你没有得到住房。
If you don’t have the housing, you don’t have the ability to invest.
如果你没有住房，你就没有能力投资。
One of the striking things, actually, is the mayor of London, who’s been in place now for eight and a bit years, has been a complete failure in building houses.
事实上，最引人注目的事情之一是伦敦市长，他已经任职八年多了，在建造房屋方面完全失败了。
He’s been really reticent on building houses, and he talks about rent control, which, as you know, at the moment when you start talking about rent control, nobody wants to rent a house and nobody wants to build a house because it .
他对建造房屋一直保持沉默，他谈论租金管制，正如你所知，当你开始谈论租金管制时，没有人愿意租房子，也没有人愿意因为租金管制而建造房子。
.
。
.
。
You don’t need me to tell you this, Tyler, but it’s one of the single greatest threats to the ability to house people, is to introduce rent controls.
泰勒，你不需要我告诉你这一点，但引入租金管制是对住房能力的最大威胁之一。
It’s a complete disaster of a policy that’s been tried 100 times and failed 100 times, and that’s what he’s talking about.
这是一项已经尝试了 100 次却失败了 100 次的政策，这完全是一场灾难，而这正是他所说的。
That’s Labour’s controlling attitude rather than the ability to build.
这是工党的控制态度，而不是建设能力。
I think there is a strong argument for having greater devolved interest in infrastructure development.
我认为，有充分的理由支持对基础设施发展赋予更大的兴趣。
We’re a smaller country than the United States, so infrastructure can’t be all local.
我们的国家比美国小，所以基础设施不可能全部是本地的。
It can’t be all done at a state level, if you see what I mean, but nor can it be all national as we’re so much bigger than, say, Belgium or the Netherlands.
如果你明白我的意思的话，这不可能全部在州一级完成，但也不可能全部是全国性的，因为我们比比利时或荷兰大得多。
We need that relationship.
我们需要这种关系。
We need a better relationship between our devolved powers and our national power, and that’s something we haven’t achieved yet.
我们需要在权力下放和国家力量之间建立更好的关系，而这是我们尚未实现的目标。
What’s your most controversial opinion about London architecture?
您对伦敦建筑最具争议性的看法是什么？
Oh, the recent architecture actually can be absolutely fantastic.
哦，最近的建筑实际上绝对是太棒了。
There’s some really beautiful recent architecture.
最近有一些非常漂亮的建筑。
There’s some beautiful town squares, as you know, the urban squares built recently.
正如你所知，有一些美丽的城镇广场，是最近建成的城市广场。
The condemnation of modern architecture, I think, is wrong.
我认为对现代建筑的谴责是错误的。
I’m a fan of what some architects call pastiche.
我很喜欢一些建筑师所说的仿制品。
You don’t have to reinvent the wheel every single time.
您不必每次都重新发明轮子。
If there’s a good design, if there’s a good form of architecture that works, that people like, I don’t see what’s wrong with repeating it just because you’ve changed the plumbing or the wiring or behind the facade.
如果有一个好的设计，如果有一种好的、有效的、人们喜欢的建筑形式，我不认为仅仅因为改变了管道、布线或幕墙后面而重复它有什么问题。
Even though we’re much wealthier and better educated, it seems that we — and I don’t just mean the UK here — we can’t build anything like, say, Bath or York.
尽管我们更加富有，受过更好的教育，但我们似乎 ——我这里指的不仅仅是英国 ——我们无法建造像巴斯或约克这样的东西。
Why is that?
这是为什么？
Where have we gone wrong?
我们哪里出了错？
We can, actually.
事实上我们可以。
The king has built Poundbury.
国王建造了庞德伯里。
I’ve seen some fantastic designs for communities near Faversham.
我在 Faversham 附近看到了一些很棒的社区设计。
I’ve seen some really nice designs for communities in other parts of Kent, and there are people who are willing to do it.
我在肯特其他地区看到了一些非常好的社区设计，并且有人愿意这样做。
But the challenge you’ve got is, you’ve got to have long-term interest.
但你面临的挑战是，你必须有长期的兴趣。
Actually, the great irony is that what we’ve swapped is, we’ve swapped the ability to plan for the long term with the ability to plan only for the short.
事实上，最具讽刺意味的是，我们所交换的是，我们已经将长期计划的能力与仅短期计划的能力交换了。
Once you do that, then you put huge financial constraints on.
一旦你这样做了，你就会受到巨大的财务限制。
Once you restrict the ability of people to access land, and so you put all of the costs on the land rather than on the building, you end up massively distorting the amount that people are willing to spend on the architecture and on the quality because, of course, people aren’t doing this for charity.
一旦限制人们获得土地的能力，将所有成本都放在土地上而不是建筑物上，最终就会严重扭曲人们愿意在建筑和质量上花费的金额，因为当然，人们这样做并不是为了慈善事业。
They need to make a profit out of it.
他们需要从中获利。
Profit is a perfectly noble motivation, and we need to make sure that people are able to do that.
利润是一种完全崇高的动机，我们需要确保人们能够做到这一点。
If we constrain their ability to spend on beautiful architecture by restricting the supply of land so they have to pay an inflated price for that, then you end up with worse-quality design and worse0quality housing.
如果我们通过限制土地供应来限制他们购买美丽建筑的能力，使他们不得不为此支付高昂的价格，那么最终你会得到质量更差的设计和质量更差的住房。
If I think back to the 1970s, and I suppose even the ’60s in Britain, my impression is a lot of very good buildings were knocked down, probably by mistake.
如果我回想 20 世纪 70 年代，甚至是 60 年代的英国，我的印象是很多非常好的建筑都被推倒了，很可能是被错误地推倒了。
Is that why YIMBY has a bad name in a lot of Britain today?
这就是 YIMBY 在当今英国很多地方名声不好的原因吗？
Yes.
是的。
How is it we ensure we get YIMBY but don’t repeat the mistakes of the 1970s when, say, a Christopher Wren church is destroyed.
我们如何确保我们得到 YIMBY，但又不会重蹈 20 世纪 70 年代的错误，比如说，克里斯托弗·雷恩 (Christopher Wren) 教堂被毁。
Look, I think that’s exactly right.
你看，我认为这是完全正确的。
You don’t need me to tell you this, but you see the same in New York.
你不需要我告诉你这一点，但你在纽约也看到了同样的情况。
The destruction of Grand — not Grand Central, the other one, Penn State — Pennsylvania Street Station was appalling.
大车站——不是大中央车站，另一座车站，宾夕法尼亚州立大学——宾夕法尼亚街车站的破坏是令人震惊的。
And you see it in the attempt to destroy — thank God, that was resisted by Betjeman — but the attempt to destroy St. Pancras Station was something that was done, the destruction of Euston Station.
你可以在摧毁的企图中看到这一点——感谢上帝，贝杰曼抵制了这一点——但是摧毁圣潘克拉斯车站的企图已经完成了，尤斯顿车站被摧毁了。
We’ve seen some really appalling acts of vandalism.
我们已经看到了一些非常令人震惊的破坏行为。
In fact, the king was one of the first people to criticize it in various speeches in the 1980s, and at the time, he was constantly referred to as a young fogey.
事实上，国王是20世纪80年代最先在各种演讲中批评这一制度的人之一，当时他经常被称为“年轻的守旧者”。
Now he seems to have been rather more prescient than I think people recognized at the time.
现在他似乎比我认为当时人们所认识到的更有先见之明。
One of the things that we’ve got to do is, we’ve got to make sure that we’re building beautiful.
我们必须做的事情之一是，我们必须确保我们的建筑美观。
There’s a really interesting piece of work being done by a guy called Nicholas Boys Smith on — Create Streets is his project, and it’s about building beautiful.
一个名叫尼古拉斯·博伊斯·史密斯 (Nicholas Boys Smith) 的人正在做一项非常有趣的工作——“创建街道”是他的项目，它是关于建造美丽的建筑。
It’s amazing.
太棒了。
When you set out beautiful design codes, when you set out buildings that really add to the environment, people don’t object so much.
当你制定出漂亮的设计规范时，当你制定出真正能改善环境的建筑时，人们就不会那么反对。
It’s hardly surprising that if you’re going to build some modernist monstrosity next to my house, I might object.
如果你要在我家旁边建造一些现代主义怪物，我可能会反对，这并不奇怪。
If you’re going to build some Georgian villas that add to the feeling of the area, then I may feel that you are increasing the value of my house, not diminishing it.
如果你打算建造一些乔治亚风格的别墅来增加该地区的感觉，那么我可能会觉得你正在增加我的房子的价值，而不是减少它。
On Kent
肯特郡
What makes Kent, which is where you’re based, special in the history of England, as you see it?
在您看来，您所在的肯特郡在英格兰历史上有何特殊之处？
Oh, Kent is remarkable, actually, and very different from the rest of England.
哦，事实上，肯特郡非常出色，而且与英格兰其他地区非常不同。
It’s very underappreciated, but I’m a proud citizen of the sovereign and independent Kingdom of Kent.
虽然这一点被严重低估，但我是主权独立的肯特王国的一名自豪的公民。
Something, okay, I admit that we haven’t been for about 1,000 years, but we still claim it.
好吧，我承认我们已经有大约 1000 年没有这样了，但我们仍然声称它。
Kent was actually colonized, if that’s the right word to use, by the Jutes, not by the Angles and Saxons, so by a different Viking tribe, a different Viking people.
肯特实际上是被朱特人殖民的，如果这个词用得正确的话，而不是被盎格鲁人和撒克逊人殖民，所以被另一个维京部落、不同的维京人殖民了。
Instead of having primogeniture, so the inheritance of the eldest son, they had the Frankish inheritance, which was the inheritance shared between the male heirs of the father.
他们没有长子继承权，即长子的遗产，而是法兰克遗产，这是父亲的男性继承人之间分享的遗产。
Now, it’s still sexist, but it meant that you ended up with a very different system.
现在，它仍然是性别歧视的，但这意味着你最终会得到一个非常不同的系统。
You ended up with much smaller parcels of land, you ended up with much smaller land holdings, and that had several effects, actually.
你最终得到的土地要小得多，你最终拥有的土地要少得多，这实际上会产生几个影响。
One of the effects it had was, it saw the greatest rise of industry because, of course, you can’t effectively just farm the rents of your peasants by owning a lot of land, then you actually have to do something about it.
它所产生的影响之一是，它见证了工业的最大崛起，因为当然，你不能通过拥有大量土地来有效地赚取农民的租金，那么你实际上必须采取一些措施。
You see, for example, the rise of industry in Kent earlier than in other places.
例如，你会看到肯特郡的工业崛起比其他地方更早。
You see the arrows that were made for the Battle of Crécy were all made in Kent.
你看，为克雷西战役制造的箭头都是在肯特郡制造的。
They were made by Kentish iron works, and they were made because there were smallholdings, and there were smallholdings because people only had enough land to farm for themselves.
它们是由肯特郡的钢铁厂制造的，之所以制造它们是因为那里有小农场，而有小农场是因为人们只有足够的土地来为自己耕种。
They didn’t have enough to profit off the wealth of others.
他们没有足够的钱从他人的财富中获利。
You then see the fact that Kent is on the crossroads of Europe, of course, and don’t forget that seaways were the highways of the medieval world.
当然，您会看到肯特位于欧洲的十字路口这一事实，并且不要忘记海道是中世纪世界的高速公路。
Being on the coast, and particularly on the coast between England and France and the Low Countries and Germany, meant that you were right on the front line of commerce and ideas, so you get ideas coming into Kent.
位于海岸，特别是位于英格兰和法国以及低地国家和德国之间的海岸，意味着您处于商业和创意的最前沿，因此您可以从肯特郡获得创意。
And obviously, right at the beginning it was the Romans who landed in Kent and came up and fought the Kentish men at the Battle of Snodland just before the turn of the year zero.
显然，从一开始，罗马人就登陆了肯特郡，并在零年之交之前在斯诺德兰战役中与肯特人作战。
You then see the reintroduction of Christianity in about 600 when Saint Augustine comes along and meets with the first Christian queen of Kent, Queen Bertha.
然后你会看到基督教在大约 600 年重新引入，当时圣奥古斯丁出现并会见了肯特郡第一位基督教女王贝莎女王。
You get these ideas.
你明白了这些想法。
And later on, you get the Protestantism that comes through and you get revolution, of course.
后来，新教兴起，当然，革命也随之而来。
Because you get — the Peasants’ Revolt comes from Kent, and Wat Tyler managed to get the men of Kent to rise against the king.
因为你知道——农民起义来自肯特郡，瓦特·泰勒成功地让肯特郡的人们起来反抗国王。
You get various ideas and various uprisings out of Kent.
你可以从肯特郡得到各种想法和各种起义。
Kent is the land of revolution and ideas.
肯特是革命和思想的土地。
How does that shape the politics in Kent today, that history?
这对肯特郡今天的政治和历史有何影响？
It’s challenging.
这很有挑战性。
It’s still challenging.
这仍然具有挑战性。
It’s an area where you get political innovation, you get political ideas coming out.
这是一个可以获得政治创新、政治思想出现的领域。
In recent years, we’ve certainly seen some different politics coming out of the coastal areas of Kent and out of the center.
近年来，我们确实看到肯特郡沿海地区和市中心出现了一些不同的政治。
We’ve seen different areas of challenge, but some of it’s eroded away, but you still have smaller land holdings.
我们已经看到了不同领域的挑战，但其中一些已经被侵蚀，但你拥有的土地仍然较少。
You still have much more of a feeling of equality in Kent than you do in many other parts of the United Kingdom.
与英国其他许多地方相比，在肯特郡你仍然有更多的平等感。
Now, your town of Tonbridge has a very famous private school.
现在，你们所在的汤布里奇镇有一所非常著名的私立学校。
Does that system need general reform in the UK, or is it just fine as is?
英国的这一制度是否需要进行全面改革，还是就这样就可以了？
No, look, I think it has reformed an awful lot.
不，看，我认为它已经改革了很多。
The impressions about what a school does in a community, I think, are very often mistaken.
我认为，人们对学校在社区中所做的事情的印象常常是错误的。
Tonbridge School not only gives out large numbers of bursaries — so a lot of the kids who go there don’t pay full fees.
汤布里奇学校不仅提供大量助学金，而且很多去那里的孩子都没有支付全额费用。
Quite a lot — there’s a fair few who don’t pay anything at all.
相当多——有相当一部分人根本不支付任何费用。
Also, the school has a really important role in the community.
此外，学校在社区中发挥着非常重要的作用。
Its sports track and its sports facilities are used by the whole town at various different points, and very often for either low or free.
整个城镇的不同地点都可以使用它的跑道和体育设施，而且通常收费或免费。
A lot of the other schools use the theater and use their facilities like that.
许多其他学校也使用剧院和类似的设施。
And they run something which is relatively common in the United Kingdom called the Combined Cadet Force, and various other kids are involved in elements of that as well.
他们管理着一种在英国相对常见的东西，称为“联合军校学生部队”，其他许多孩子也参与其中。
It’s not a standalone.
它不是一个独立的。
Forty, fifty years ago, it would’ve been a very standalone institution, but the fees would’ve been relatively lower.
四十、五十年前，它是一个非常独立的机构，但费用相对较低。
Now the institution is much more integrated in many ways into the town.
现在，该机构在很多方面都更加融入了城镇。
It’s true that the fees are higher.
确实收费比较高。
They are very high, but what it offers the rest of the community is also a huge amount.
它们非常高，但它为社区其他人提供的东西也是巨大的。
On great unselected PMs and the effectiveness of Parliament
关于未经选举产生的伟大首相和议会的有效性
Putting aside present company, who is the great unselected prime minister in British history?
抛开现在的人不谈，英国历史上最伟大的未经选举产生的首相是谁？
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
I’ve heard people say it was Denis Healey, Michael Heseltine, Roy Jenkins, others.
我听人们说是丹尼斯·希利、迈克尔·赫塞尔廷、罗伊·詹金斯等人。
Who’s your pick?
你选谁？
Who should’ve been prime minister?
谁应该担任首相？
All of those people are really interesting.
所有这些人都非常有趣。
I think Ken Clarke would’ve been very interesting as well.
我认为肯·克拉克也会很有趣。
Actually, I think most recently, the one who would’ve been prime minister had he stayed in Parliament is George Osborne.
事实上，我认为最近，如果乔治·奥斯本留在议会，他就会成为首相。
I think when Theresa May came back after the 2017 election with not only a reduced majority, but actually a slight minority administration, I think George Osborne would’ve been prime minister within weeks had he stayed in Parliament.
我认为，当特蕾莎·梅在 2017 年大选后复出时，不仅多数席位减少，而且实际上还出现了轻微的少数派政府，我认为如果乔治·奥斯本留在议会，几周内他就会成为首相。
But he stood down, and so I think that’s one of those moments where sliding doors in the history is slightly different.
但他下台了，所以我认为这是历史上滑动门略有不同的时刻之一。
Can the British system of government in its current parliamentary form — how well can that work without broadly liberal individualistic foundations in public opinion?
如果没有公众舆论中广泛的自由个人主义基础，英国目前的议会形式的政府制度能否运作得很好？
I think it works extremely well at ensuring that truly liberal foundations are maintained.
我认为它在确保维持真正的自由主义基础方面非常有效。
I mean that not in the American sense; I mean in a genuine, the old liberal tradition that emerges from the UK in the 1700s, 1800s, where freedom of thought, freedom of assembly, the right to own property, and all those principles that then became embedded in various different constitutions around the world, including your own.
我的意思不是美国意义上的；而是美国意义上的。我的意思是，在 1700 年代、1800 年代英国出现的真正的、古老的自由主义传统中，思想自由、集会自由、拥有财产的权利以及所有这些原则后来融入了世界各地不同的宪法，包括你们自己的宪法。
I think it does very well at doing that because it forces you, our system forces you, into partnership.
我认为它在这方面做得很好，因为它迫使你，我们的系统迫使你建立伙伴关系。
There are 650 people who you have to work with in some way in Parliament over the next four or five years.
在接下来的四五年里，你必须在议会中以某种方式与 650 人合作。
And there’s four of us currently going for leadership at the Conservative Party.
目前我们有四个人正在竞选保守党的领导职务。
There’s one reason why, despite the fact that we’re competing almost in a US primary system, the way in which we are dealing with each other is very different, is because we’re all going to have to work together for the next four years.
尽管我们几乎是在美国的初选体系中竞争，但我们彼此打交道的方式却截然不同，原因之一是我们都必须在接下来的四年里共同努力。
Whoever wins is going to have to work with the other three, and the idea that you can simply ignore each other isn’t true.
无论谁获胜，都必须与其他三个人合作，并且可以简单地忽略彼此的想法是不正确的。
There’s only 121 of us Conservative MPs in Parliament, and what this system forces on us is the need to deal with each other in a way that you have to deal with somebody if you’re going to deal with them tomorrow.
我们议会中只有 121 名保守党议员，而这个制度迫使我们需要以一种方式来处理彼此，如果你明天要与某人打交道，就必须与某人打交道。
I think that’s one of the reasons why the British political system has endured because it forces you to remember that there’s a long-term interest, not an immediate one, not just a short-term one.
我认为这就是英国政治制度得以延续的原因之一，因为它迫使你记住，这是长期利益，而不是眼前利益，而不仅仅是短期利益。
Putting aside particular hypotheses about specific elections, but why do you think for a while now, party outcomes in the UK have become quite uneven relative, to say, the continent — that one party will win by quite a bit, right?
抛开关于具体选举的特定假设，但为什么你认为现在一段时间以来，英国的政党结果相对于整个大陆来说已经变得相当不平衡——一个政党会赢得相当多的胜利，对吗？
It’s partly down to the system.
部分原因在于系统。
It’s a very small number of votes in a certain number of seats can swing certain seats quite a lot.
一定数量的席位中极少数的选票可以对某些席位产生很大的影响。
If you look at the result of the last election, for example, in ’24 on the 4th of July this year, the Labour Party won with a majority of 179 off 33 percent and a bit, 34 percent of the vote.
如果你看一下上次选举的结果，例如今年 7 月 4 日的 24 年选举，工党以 179 票的多数获胜，得票率为 33%，略为 34%。
Now, normally, an opposition party will get 34 percent of the vote, and the governing party will get 38 percent, 40 percent of the vote.
现在，通常情况下，反对党将获得34%的选票，执政党将获得38%、40%的选票。
But what Labour have achieved is they’ve managed to get a lot of very narrow wins.
但工党所取得的成就是，他们赢得了很多非常微弱的胜利。
They’ve got a lot of wins by 500 or 1,000 votes across the country.
他们在全国范围内以 500 或 1,000 票的优势赢得了很多胜利。
In fact, it would only require — it’s quite a big “only,” but it would only require 175,000 votes to switch for it to be reduced from a majority to a minority.
事实上，只需要——这是一个相当大的“唯一”，但只需要十七万五千票就可以从多数变成少数。
Now, admittedly that’s a lot of votes, but the truth is, when you look at an electorate of 40 million, that’s not that much to switch from effectively a two-thirds victory in the Commons to a 50–50.
现在，诚然，这是很多选票，但事实是，当你看到 4000 万选民时，从下议院三分之二的实际胜利转变为 50-50 的票数并不算多。
Putting aside any party loyalties, but does the thinness of those mandates make you more optimistic about liberalism, broadly construed, in the UK?
抛开任何政党忠诚不谈，但这些授权的薄弱是否会让您对英国的自由主义（广义而言）更加乐观？
Yes, it does.
是的，确实如此。
It makes me much more optimistic about it.
这让我对此更加乐观。
The reason is because the only way you get these mandates is by appealing to a wide enough section of your own voting bloc, and by convincing those who are against you either to support you or to stay away.
原因是因为你获得这些授权的唯一方法是吸引你自己投票集团中足够广泛的部分，并说服那些反对你的人要么支持你，要么远离你。
And they stay away when they’re not interested in supporting their own side, or they’re not too fearful of you.
当他们对支持自己一方不感兴趣或者不太害怕你时，他们就会远离你。
You’ll look at, for example, the 2019 election: The turnout was very, very high.
例如，你会看到 2019 年的选举：投票率非常非常高。
It was very high because a lot of people either were extremely angry at one of the party leaders, or they were absolutely determined that their own party leader should win.
它非常高，因为很多人要么对其中一位政党领导人非常愤怒，要么他们绝对认为自己的政党领导人应该获胜。
And the combination of the two meant it generated very high turnouts on both sides, as it were.
两者的结合意味着双方的投票率都非常高。
It also meant that the two major political parties got the bulk of the vote.
这也意味着两大政党获得了大部分选票。
Whereas in 2019, there’s a lot of people who were angry at us, the Conservatives, after 14 years in office.
而在 2019 年，有很多人对执政 14 年后的我们保守党感到愤怒。
But there was no real enthusiasm for Keir Starmer, nor was there any great fear of Keir Starmer.
但人们对凯尔·斯塔默并没有真正的热情，也没有对凯尔·斯塔默有任何巨大的恐惧。
That meant that you got, first of all, a very low turnout, but you also got a very low margin of victory in percentage terms, although you end up with a very large majority in electoral terms.
这意味着，首先，你的投票率非常低，但从百分比来看，你的胜利幅度也非常低，尽管你最终在选举中获得了绝大多数。
That means that these things can change quickly.
这意味着这些事情可能会很快发生变化。
I think the important thing in a democracy is to be ready for change and to make sure that good ideas can cut through.
我认为民主国家最重要的是为变革做好准备，并确保好的想法能够发挥作用。
That’s why I’m extremely optimistic for the next election, for example, because I think that the kind of economic reforms that we need to see, the Conservative revolution that we need to see, the back-to-service, back-to-leadership, and back-to-action that we need to see is something that can generate a real swing and a real momentum behind it relatively quickly, and certainly within four years.
这就是为什么我对下一次选举非常乐观，因为我认为我们需要看到的经济改革，我们需要看到的保守党革命，我们需要看到的恢复服务、恢复领导地位和恢复行动，能够相对较快地产生真正的摇摆和真正的动力，而且肯定是在四年内。
It’s a common view with outsiders that the mechanisms through which Brexit evolved and was achieved show there was some kind of defect in the UK system of government, that somehow you got stuck at a certain point and there weren’t enough moving parts in the system to budge you from that, either to getting the deal done or reversing it.
局外人普遍认为，英国脱欧的演变和实现机制表明，英国政府体系存在某种缺陷，不知何故，你陷入了某个阶段，而体系中没有足够的活动部件来让你摆脱这一困境，无论是完成协议还是逆转协议。
Independent of whatever one thinks of Brexit, do you accept that criticism that somehow the system can get stuck due to the extreme sovereignty of Parliament?
不管人们对英国脱欧的看法如何，您是否接受这样的批评：由于议会的极端主权，该体系可能会以某种方式陷入困境？
I accept the criticism at the time, and the reason I accepted it at the time is because we had something that was introduced called the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, which meant that the government, in theory, could not dissolve Parliament.
我当时接受批评，我当时接受的原因是因为我们推出了一个叫做《固定任期议会法》的东西，这意味着政府理论上不能解散议会。
Now, you can have two systems.
现在，您可以拥有两个系统。
You can either have a system of government where the government sits outside the parliament and they both have fixed terms, in which case you have a mandate that endures like that, but then you get your obstacles between the two.
你可以采用一种政府体制，其中政府位于议会之外，并且它们都有固定的任期，在这种情况下，你拥有这样持久的授权，但随后你就会在两者之间遇到障碍。
Or you can have the government in our system, where the government, by definition, can command a majority in the Commons.
或者你可以在我们的系统中拥有政府，根据定义，政府可以在下议院获得多数席位。
That is the definition of a government in our system; it’s anybody who can command a majority in the Commons is, by definition, the prime minister.
这就是我们系统中政府的定义；根据定义，任何能够在下议院获得多数席位的人都是首相。
Now, we got to a position, because of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act that was introduced during the coalition years, where there was somebody in the Commons who was sitting in the seats of the prime minister but could not command a majority.
现在，由于联合政府时期推出的《固定任期议会法》，我们陷入了这样的境地：下议院有人坐在首相席位上，但无法获得多数席位。
That led to complete inertia until the Lib.
这导致了完全的惰性，直到自由党。
Dems.
民主党。
made a cretinously stupid mistake and thought that they were about to win an anti-Brexit vote and lead themselves to victory.
犯了一个愚蠢的错误，认为他们即将赢得反对英国脱欧的投票并带领自己取得胜利。
They forced an election.
他们强迫举行选举。
Actually, had they hung on and tolerated the inability of Parliament to get things done, I think the situation may have been very different.
事实上，如果他们坚持下去并容忍议会无法完成任务，我认为情况可能会大不相同。
I think the lesson from that was that you need to remember what the system is and why it works.
我认为从中得到的教训是，您需要记住系统是什么以及它为何起作用。
Our system means that the prime minister either has the ability to command a majority in Parliament or the Parliament collapses, and that forces a level of truth and honesty into a debate.
我们的制度意味着，首相要么有能力在议会中获得多数席位，要么议会垮台，这迫使辩论必须展现一定程度的真相和诚实。
That means that members of Parliament have to think very hard before they vote against the government, before they vote down their own side, because they may be voting themselves out of office.
这意味着议员们在投票反对政府之前、在投票反对自己一方之前必须认真思考，因为他们可能会投票让自己下台。
Should the House of Lords be abolished or phased out?
上议院应该被废除还是逐步取消？
No, it shouldn’t.
不，不应该。
The extraordinary thing about the House of Lords is it’s not something that anybody would invent —
上议院的非凡之处在于它不是任何人都会发明的东西 ——
I might.
我可能会。
— but it works.
— 但是它有效。
You might, you’re right.
你可能会，你是对的。
You’re the kind of economist who might.
你是那种可能会这么做的经济学家。
The weird thing about the hereditary peers — and there’s plenty of changes you can make to the hereditary peers, but the weird thing about it is, it’s a system of randomness that injects lottery into government.
世袭贵族的奇怪之处在于，你可以对世袭贵族做出很多改变，但奇怪的是，这是一个随机性系统，向政府注入了彩票。
Now, I can certainly see an argument for turning that from a family lottery into a jury system where it’s a temporary lottery.
现在，我当然可以看到将其从家庭彩票转变为陪审团制度的论据，这是一种临时彩票。
The other thing that the House of Lords does, which is very, very difficult in a democracy, is it forces you to think longer over time.
上议院所做的另一件事，在民主国家中是非常非常困难的，它迫使你随着时间的推移思考得更久。
What the House of Lords used to do, through its hereditary principle, was force you to think not only long-term over time for yourself — so 20, 30 years — but actually think generationally.
上议院过去所做的，通过其世袭原则，迫使你不仅要为自己着眼长远——“大约20年、30年”——而且要真正地为世代思考。
If you want to guard the stability of your country so that your children and your grandchildren inherit your wealth, then you need to be thinking over 50 or 100 years.
如果你想维护国家的稳定，让你的子孙继承你的财富，那么你需要考虑50年或100年。
One of the problems that democracies have is short-term thinking, and balancing long-term and short-term thinking is something that every democracy should be trying to do.
民主国家所面临的问题之一是短期思维，而平衡长期和短期思维是每个民主国家都应该努力做到的事情。
Now, I’m not going to tell you that the fact that most of the hereditary peers — in fact, I think they’re all male; I may be wrong about that, there may be a woman amongst them, but I think they’re all male — is clearly an issue.
现在，我不会告诉你，大多数世袭贵族 ——事实上，我认为他们都是男性；他们都是男性。我的想法可能是错的，其中可能有女性，但我认为他们都是男性 ——这显然是一个问题。
The fact that they come from a very narrow demographic of our society is clearly an issue.
他们来自我们社会中非常狭窄的人口这一事实显然是一个问题。
The fact that they introduce long-term thinking, that they don’t actually have the ability to block anything, and that they force effectively a power base beyond the day-to-day will of the prime minister, I think is a benefit.
事实上，他们引入了长期思维，他们实际上没有能力阻止任何事情，而且他们有效地建立了一个超出总理日常意愿的权力基础，我认为这是一个好处。
I think it’s been good to have as a revising chamber.
我认为作为一个修订室是件好事。
I don’t think it should ever have preeminence, and the elected chamber should always have the ability to overrule it, which we do.
我认为它不应该拥有卓越的地位，民选院应该始终有能力否决它，我们就是这么做的。
I think having that long-term thinking is really important.
我认为拥有长远的思考非常重要。
Why has the global fascination with the British monarchy so persisted?
为什么全球对英国君主制的迷恋如此持久？
Now, surely, some of that is the legacy of empire, but it seems to have far outlived that as the only explanation.
现在，当然，其中一些是帝国的遗产，但它似乎已经远远超过了唯一的解释。
The monarchies of the Netherlands, Norway — no one much talks about them, say, in the US.
荷兰、挪威的君主制——比如在美国，没有人过多谈论它们。
But yours, my goodness, you’re like the global reserve currency.
但你的，天哪，你就像全球储备货币。
What’s the PR genius behind that, or how did that happen?
这背后的公关天才是什么？或者这是如何发生的？
What’s special?
有什么特别之处？
There’s various things.
有各种各样的事情。
King Farouk said when he was in exile, after having left Cairo for the last time, he said, “One day, there’ll only be five kings left.
法鲁克国王在流放时说，在最后一次离开开罗后，他说：“有一天，世界上只剩下五位国王了。
The king of hearts, the king of spades, the king of clubs, the king of diamonds, and the king of England.” I think he’s partly right.
红心K、黑桃K、梅花K、方块K和英格兰K。”我认为他说对了一部分。
The reason he’s partly right is because it was the queens’ genius, actually.
他之所以部分正确，是因为这实际上是皇后们的天才。
I think we’ve never been better governed and better ruled than when our reigning monarch is a woman.
我认为，当我们的现任君主是女性时，我们从来没有得到过更好的治理和统治。
We’ve always had very, very good women monarchs: Queen Elizabeth, Queen Victoria, and then Queen Elizabeth again.
我们一直有非常非常优秀的女君主：伊丽莎白女王、维多利亚女王，然后又是伊丽莎白女王。
It’s been a remarkable success that she’s been able to be a guiding presence without her voice becoming in any way strident or separatist.
她能够成为一个指导性存在，而她的声音没有变得任何刺耳或分裂主义，这是一个了不起的成功。
She’s never divided, and that was a remarkable gift.
她从未分裂，这是一份非凡的礼物。
Now it’s also, I think, the benefit that the English language really helps.
我认为，现在这也是英语真正有帮助的好处。
And the fact that most people, certainly in England, Wales, and Scotland (numbers are slightly different), but most people in Northern Ireland (of course, different again), but most people in the United Kingdom take the monarchy seriously and respectfully but know that it’s not relevant in a day-to-day sense.
事实上，大多数人，当然是英格兰、威尔士和苏格兰的人（数字略有不同），还有北爱尔兰的大多数人（当然，又不同），还有英国的大多数人，都认真而尊重地对待君主制，但知道它与日常意义无关。
I think divorcing the splendid from the sordid, if you like, is rather a healthy way of having a government.
我认为，如果你愿意的话，将辉煌与肮脏分开是一种健康的政府方式。
We don’t like our prime minister to be bathed in gold and glory.
我们不喜欢我们的首相沐浴在黄金和荣耀之中。
We certainly look at your presidential system sometimes with a little surprise.
当然，我们有时会带着一点惊讶来看待你们的总统制度。
It does surprise my American friends when I tell them that the entire government can fly in the same plane, but the king and the Prince of Wales are never allowed to travel together.
当我告诉我的美国朋友整个政府可以乘坐同一架飞机，但国王和威尔士亲王永远不被允许一起旅行时，他们确实感到惊讶。
On devolution for Scotland and Northern Ireland
关于苏格兰和北爱尔兰的权力下放
Has the extent of devolution for Scotland and Northern Ireland gone too far?
苏格兰和北爱尔兰的权力下放程度是否太过分了？
Because to an outsider, it seems like they have a great deal of autonomy, but actually not quite enough responsibility for the well-being of the whole polity.
因为在外人看来，他们似乎拥有很大的自主权，但实际上对整个政体的福祉没有足够的责任。
I wouldn’t say it’s gone too far, no. I’d say it’s imbalanced.
我不会说这已经太过分了，不。我想说的是，这是不平衡的。
I think that’s right.
我认为这是对的。
There’s an old principle, which you’ll know, of aligning accountability, responsibility, and authority.
有一条古老的原则，你会知道的，即协调职责、责任和权力。
One of the challenges we’ve got in our devolution system in the UK at the moment is you’d have to be nuts, as a devolved representative seeking office, not to promise to pave the steep streets of your community with gold, and then to blame Westminster for not paying for it because you have very little responsibility for raising any of the money that you’re going to spend.
目前英国权力下放体系面临的挑战之一是，作为寻求公职的权力下放代表，你必须发疯，不要承诺用黄金铺平你所在社区的陡峭街道，然后责怪威斯敏斯特不支付费用，因为你几乎没有责任筹集你要花的任何钱。
We don’t have, in the same way that you’d have in the United States, the same level of city, county, state, and federal taxation.
我们没有与美国相同水平的市、县、州和联邦税收。
It’s much more centralized in the UK.
它在英国更加集中。
Now, one of the advantages, of course, is it means that the oversight is stronger.
当然，现在的优势之一就是意味着监督更加有力。
One of the disadvantages, of course: It means the responsibility for each individual area is weaker, and that leads to the inequities of infrastructure and housing and the misalignment of incentives that we now see.
当然，缺点之一是：这意味着每个单独领域的责任较弱，从而导致我们现在看到的基础设施和住房的不平等以及激励措施的失调。
Certainly, if you look at England — I’m not sure if this is true in Scotland, actually — but certainly in England, in the 1930s, the local authorities raised more and were able to keep more business rates.
当然，如果你看看英格兰 ——我不确定这在苏格兰是否属实，实际上 ——但可以肯定的是，在英格兰，在 20 世纪 30 年代，地方当局筹集了更多资金，并且能够保持更多的商业利率。
But the changes that came in in 1947, ’48, in the Town and Country Planning Act meant that a lot of this was centralized, and it became a rebate from central government.
但 1947 年、48 年《城乡规划法》中的变化意味着其中很多都是集中的，并且变成了中央政府的回扣。
Of course, the incentive, at that point, went away.
当然，到那时，激励就消失了。
Now, you’re a Roman Catholic, and part of your family background is originally Jewish from Austria.
现在，您是一名罗马天主教徒，并且您的部分家庭背景最初是来自奥地利的犹太人。
Do you think that, in any way, gives you a slightly different understanding of British history?
您认为这是否让您对英国历史的理解略有不同？
If so, what would that be?
如果是这样，那会是什么？
Yes.
是的。
I guess it does.
我想是的。
As you know, I’m pretty British.
如你所知，我是一个非常英国人。
My uncle sits in the House of Lords, my father was a High Court judge and I served in the army.
我的叔叔是上议院议员，我的父亲是高等法院法官，我在军队服役。
I think that perspective is important to me.
我认为这种观点对我很重要。
How much it shapes my view of Englishness or the United Kingdom, I don’t know.
我不知道它在多大程度上影响了我对英国性或英国的看法。
It’s certainly impossible to be a Catholic in the United Kingdom and not remember some of the English martyrs who met pretty unpleasant ends under various of our earlier monarchs.
作为英国的一名天主教徒，当然不可能不记得一些英国殉道者，他们在我们早期的君主统治下都遭遇了相当不愉快的结局。
As somebody who served in our intelligence corps, it’s impossible not to remember the first intelligence units in the United Kingdom — well, in England — was set up to hunt Catholic priests.
作为在我们情报部门服役的人，不可能不记得联合王国——好吧，在英格兰——的第一个情报部门是为了追捕天主教牧师而设立的。
That was literally their purpose, at which they were remarkably successful.
这确实是他们的目的，并且他们取得了巨大的成功。
I think it shapes me there.
我认为它在那里塑造了我。
I think the Jewishness, as it were — and for me, it’s entirely past, in the sense I’m not culturally Jewish, I’m certainly not religious; I’m religiously Catholic — but that links me to a lost past in Eastern Europe that I think reminds me why the investments and the efforts that you make in your own home are so absolutely fundamental to guarding your freedom as well.
我认为犹太性，可以说是——对我来说，它已经完全过去了，从某种意义上说，我不是文化上的犹太人，我当然不信教；我是虔诚的天主教徒——但这让我想起了东欧一段失落的过去，我想这让我想起了为什么你在自己家里所做的投资和努力对于捍卫你的自由来说也是绝对重要的。
The work that we do in defending British democracy is absolutely fundamental to guarding all of our liberties.
我们为捍卫英国民主所做的工作对于捍卫我们所有的自由绝对至关重要。
Do you think you end up with a deeper understanding of Northern Ireland as a result?
您认为您最终会对北爱尔兰有更深入的了解吗？
It’s very hard to overstate the complexity of Northern Ireland, as somebody who’s had the privilege of having many Northern Irish friends from many different communities.
很难夸大北爱尔兰的复杂性，因为我有幸拥有来自许多不同社区的许多北爱尔兰朋友。
Be careful what you think you understand.
小心你认为你理解的事情。
If you think you understand Northern Ireland, you may not be understanding anything at all.
如果您认为自己了解北爱尔兰，那么您可能根本不了解任何事情。
The immunity provisions of the 2023 Legacy Act for Northern Ireland: good idea, bad idea?
2023 年北爱尔兰遗产法案的豁免条款：好主意，坏主意？
You’re not sure?
你不确定吗？
Look, they’re necessary, I’m afraid.
听着，恐怕它们是必要的。
It’s incredibly painful because, for everybody, there’s a legacy of pain and loss.
这是令人难以置信的痛苦，因为对每个人来说，都会留下痛苦和失落的遗产。
Everybody feels quite understandably that they want to have recourse to justice.
每个人都希望诉诸正义，这是可以理解的。
But the reality is that we’ve now had 40 years of inquiries, many of them quite literally raking up very, very, very old information again and again and again and again.
但现实是，我们已经进行了 40 年的调查，其中许多调查实际上是一次又一次地收集非常非常古老的信息。
The people who are now being forced through these judicial processes are now usually men — or in fact, almost entirely men in their late 70s, 80s, whose recollection of events, if they have any recollections at all, are pretty sketchy.
现在被迫通过这些司法程序的人通常是男性——或者事实上，几乎全部是70多岁、80多岁的男性，他们对事件的回忆，如果他们有任何回忆的话，都是相当粗略的。
We’ve got to a point where the correct way of having inquiry into the past is to do historical inquiry based on written record, and I think that’s what this offers.
我们已经到了这样一个地步：探究过去的正确方法是根据书面记录进行历史探究，我认为这就是它所提供的。
On the Middle East
在中东
What did you learn on active service in Afghanistan that most people would be surprised by?
您在阿富汗现役期间学到了什么让大多数人感到惊讶的事情？
Be kind.
友善一点。
Be kind.
友善一点。
Yes.
是的。
What do you think is the case for medium-term semi-optimism about Afghanistan, or is there no such case?
您认为对阿富汗中期半乐观的情况是怎样的，还是不存在这种情况？
Medium-term, I think it’s really hard to make even a medium-term optimistic case.
从中期来看，我认为即使是中期乐观的情况也很难做出。
I think there’s a long-term optimistic case, but it requires some really fundamental changes to several of its neighboring states.
我认为这是一个长期乐观的情况，但这需要对其几个邻国进行一些真正根本性的改变。
Because the reality is, Afghanistan hasn’t been either in civil war or been the death of empires, as people claim.
因为现实是，阿富汗并没有像人们声称的那样陷入内战或帝国的灭亡。
It’s been the playground of others.
这里曾经是别人的游乐场。
You constantly see that bits of Afghanistan are dominated by bits of their neighbors, and that domination leads to internal frictions and frictions between the two neighbors.
你经常看到阿富汗的一些地区被邻国的一些地区所统治，而这种统治导致了两个邻国之间的内耗和摩擦。
You look at the way in which parts of Afghanistan are effectively played over by different political interests from the region, and you see the effect on the lives of particularly women and girls, but actually everybody in Afghanistan.
你看看阿富汗部分地区如何受到该地区不同政治利益的有效影响，你会看到这对妇女和女孩的生活产生的影响，实际上是阿富汗每个人的生活。
It’s hard to see, without the regional changes, any real optimism.
如果没有地区性的变化，很难看到任何真正的乐观情绪。
How did studying Arabic in Yemen affect your life trajectory?
在也门学习阿拉伯语对您的人生轨迹有何影响？
Massively and completely unexpectedly.
大规模且完全出乎意料。
I studied it because I was interested in it.
我研究它是因为我对它感兴趣。
I’m a theology student, and I’m just interested in other religions.
我是一名神学学生，我只是对其他宗教感兴趣。
I thought I was studying Islam out of interest, but it’s because I spoke Arabic that I was mobilized to fight in Iraq.
我以为我是出于兴趣而学习伊斯兰教，但正是因为我会说阿拉伯语，我才被动员去伊拉克作战。
And it was because I was mobilized to fight in Iraq, I then served in the Foreign Office and then stayed in the military and ended up in politics.
正是因为我被动员去伊拉克作战，然后我在外交部任职，然后留在军队，最后从政。
Funnily enough, it’s one of the most consequential decisions I ever took, and I took it very lightly.
有趣的是，这是我做过的最重要的决定之一，而且我非常轻率地做出了这个决定。
What happened?
发生了什么？
What happens next after you do that?
这样做之后接下来会发生什么？
What do you mean?
你是什么意思？
After I studied Arabic or —
在我学习了阿拉伯语之后或者 ——
Yes.
是的。
How did that lead to the next stage of your life?
这如何导致你人生的下一个阶段？
Oh, I see.
我懂了。
I studied Arabic because I was doing a master’s in Islamics, and because I spoke Arabic when I left university, I decided to be a journalist.
我学习阿拉伯语是因为我正在攻读伊斯兰学硕士学位，而且因为我离开大学后会说阿拉伯语，所以我决定成为一名记者。
And because I spoke Arabic and French, I went to Beirut.
因为我会说阿拉伯语和法语，所以我去了贝鲁特。
I learned to be a journalist by working on a local paper in Beirut.
我通过在贝鲁特当地一家报纸工作而学会了成为一名记者。
Did that for a few years.
这样做了几年。
Went back to the United Kingdom and was a management consultant for a little bit.
回到英国，担任了一段时间的管理顾问。
While I was doing that, I joined the British Army Reserve, and I moved to work for Bloomberg News, writing about commodity markets, analyzing the energy industry, that sort of thing.
当我这样做的时候，我加入了英国陆军预备役，然后我转到彭博新闻社工作，撰写有关大宗商品市场的文章，分析能源行业，诸如此类的事情。
While I was doing that, 9/11 happened, and I was mobilized to go and fight in the various wars that then followed.
当我这样做的时候，9/11 事件发生了，我被动员去参加随后发生的各种战争。
As of 2024, Yemen is much in the news as of late.
截至 2024 年，也门最近成为新闻焦点。
I find it puzzling if someone asks me, “Well, what are the Houthis seeking to maximize?” I don’t quite have a good answer.
如果有人问我“胡塞武装想要最大化什么？”，我会感到很困惑。我没有一个很好的答案。
What would you say?
你会说什么？
I say they’re seeking to maximize their tribal influence over Yemen as much as it’s possible to do so.
我说他们正在寻求尽可能最大化他们的部落对也门的影响力。
They are a remarkable organization of very, very, very traditional tribal fighting with some extremely modern access to weaponry, mostly from Iran, but also bought from other places.
他们是一个非常、非常、非常传统的部落战斗的非凡组织，拥有一些极其现代化的武器，大部分来自伊朗，但也从其他地方购买。
At the moment, what they’re trying to do is they’re trying to close off the Red Sea to limit the ability to sustain Israel, but they’re also looking to generally do damage to global trade.
目前，他们试图封锁红海，以限制以色列的生存能力，但他们也希望对全球贸易造成普遍损害。
Is that instrumentally rational for them?
这对他们来说是工具理性的吗？
I know it’s a bad thing, but in terms of how they assess means-ends relationships, do you see them as rational actors?
我知道这是一件坏事，但就他们如何评估手段-目的关系而言，你认为他们是理性行为者吗？
Yes, they’re rational.
是的，他们是理性的。
They’re rational within their own metrics.
他们在自己的标准范围内是理性的。
It’s one of those things — if people do things you don’t expect, it’s probably because you haven’t understood the reason they’re doing it, if you see what I mean.
这是其中之一——如果你明白我的意思，如果人们做了你意想不到的事情，那可能是因为你还没有理解他们这样做的原因。
What they’re trying to do is they’re trying to fight a civil war.
他们想做的是打内战。
They’re not particularly interested in Israel per se.
他们对以色列本身并不特别感兴趣。
They’re interested in having legitimacy in a civil war, and one of the ways you get legitimacy in internal Islamic civil war is by attacking Israel.
他们对在内战中获得合法性感兴趣，而在内战中获得合法性的方法之一就是攻击以色列。
One of the ways in which you get weapons off Iran is by attacking Israel.
从伊朗获得武器的方法之一是攻击以色列。
So if you want to fight civil war and you want to have legitimacy in weapons, attacking Israel helps you.
因此，如果你想打内战并且想要拥有武器的合法性，攻击以色列会对你有所帮助。
It may not have rationality within our thinking because every now and again, Israel’s likely to strike back, as indeed it did only a few weeks ago.
我们的想法可能不合理，因为以色列可能时不时地进行反击，就像几周前那样。
Actually, closing down shipping in the Red Sea doesn’t particularly help you win that civil war, but it does add to your legitimacy and makes you look like a competent military power.
事实上，关闭红海航运并不能特别帮助你赢得内战，但它确实增加了你的合法性，让你看起来像一个有能力的军事强国。
So it’s done for a different reason.
所以这是出于不同的原因。
Now, how should I think about Iran?
现在，我应该如何看待伊朗？
If I see Iranians abroad, they do so very well, including in Britain.
如果我在国外看到伊朗人，他们表现得很好，包括在英国。
Iran itself has a lot of science, a lot of tech, engineering, great deal of talent and, it seems, energy.
伊朗本身拥有大量的科学、大量的技术、工程、大量的人才，而且似乎还有能源。
Yet the country is somehow fundamentally weak.
然而，这个国家在某种程度上从根本上来说还是很弱。
They have a very bad government; they cannot exercise deterrence.
他们的政府非常糟糕；他们无法发挥威慑作用。
What’s the most fundamental way of thinking about what’s gone wrong there?
思考问题所在的最基本方法是什么？
I think you should think about Iran extremely positively.
我认为你应该非常积极地看待伊朗。
Iran is an incredible country of an unbelievably rich civilization, as you know.
如您所知，伊朗是一个令人难以置信的国家，拥有令人难以置信的丰富文明。
You don’t need me to tell you that.
你不需要我告诉你这一点。
It’s an amazing place with some of the most extraordinary scientists and artists that any culture has ever produced.
这是一个令人惊叹的地方，拥有任何文化中最杰出的科学家和艺术家。
It’s a remarkable place.
这是一个了不起的地方。
You should think about the Iranian regime very differently.
你应该以非常不同的方式思考伊朗政权。
That is a cancerous growth on the back of a country that came out of the chaos of a revolution that many people thought was going to go a completely different way and has effectively leached the life out of millions of people in the most horrific way.
这是一个国家背后的癌性增长，这个国家摆脱了一场革命的混乱，许多人认为这场革命将会走上一条完全不同的道路，并以最可怕的方式有效地剥夺了数百万人的生命。
It’s one of the most brutal and psychotic actors in a dangerous region.
它是危险地区最残酷、最疯狂的演员之一。
What it’s offering now is effectively a millenarian death cult where it sees — when people tell you what they believe, it’s often wise to believe that they’re telling you the truth.
它现在提供的实际上是一种千禧年死亡崇拜，它认为，当人们告诉你他们的信仰时，相信他们告诉你的是真相通常是明智的。
They’re telling us very clearly that what they’re doing is they’re preparing for the coming of the Mahdi, and they need to destroy Israel and conquer Jerusalem in order to achieve it.
他们非常清楚地告诉我们，他们正在做的是为马赫迪的到来做准备，他们需要摧毁以色列并征服耶路撒冷才能实现这一目标。
They seem to be acting in that way.
他们似乎就是这样做的。
But at least as of the time we’re talking, in September 2024, their behavior is very cautious.
但至少截至我们谈论的 2024 年 9 月，他们的行为非常谨慎。
They’re not seeking to be sent to heaven immediately.
他们并不寻求立即被送往天堂。
As a social scientist, I’m a little suspicious of explanations where the society and the government are so totally different, even under autocracy.
作为一名社会科学家，我对社会和政府即使在独裁统治下也完全不同的解释有点怀疑。
Do you see what I’m saying?
你明白我在说什么吗？
It still puzzles me.
这仍然让我困惑。
I do see what you’re saying.
我确实明白你在说什么。
I see what you’re saying, and in normal cases, I would sympathize.
我明白你所说的，在正常情况下，我会表示同情。
The reality is, though, this is a very brutal autocracy.
但现实是，这是一个非常残酷的独裁政权。
It does murder an awful lot of people a year, and it has successfully got most — well, not most, but it’s successfully got many people expelled from the country.
它每年确实谋杀了很多人，而且它成功地杀死了大多数——好吧，不是大多数，但它成功地让很多人被驱逐出了这个国家。
There’s a huge Iranian diaspora, as you know, all over the world.
如你所知，世界各地都有大量的伊朗侨民。
There are many extremely impressive Iranians who’ve followed their own lives away from the dictatorship.
有许多令人印象深刻的伊朗人走上了自己的生活，远离了独裁统治。
I think that alignment of government and people is easier when people can travel and be exiled, and that’s what we’re seeing.
我认为，当人们可以旅行和流亡时，政府和人民的协调会更容易，这就是我们所看到的。
What we’re seeing is a vile failure of leadership and a failure of responsibility.
我们看到的是领导力的严重失败和责任感的失败。
We’re seeing a government that absolutely brutalized an entire nation.
我们看到的是一个对整个国家进行绝对残酷对待的政府。
One of the things you’re also seeing is that the government has realized that it can conduct a lot of violence through proxies.
你还看到的一件事是，政府已经意识到它可以通过代理人实施大量暴力。
We just spoke about the Houthis, but it’s also true that Hamas and Lebanese Hezbollah are mere proxies, in many ways, for the Iranian state.
我们刚刚谈到了胡塞武装，但哈马斯和黎巴嫩真主党在很多方面也确实只是伊朗国家的代理人。
Now, in your earlier role as security minister and other posts, you’ve had access to a lot of classified information.
现在，在您早期担任安全部长和其他职务时，您已经接触到了大量机密信息。
Of course, we wouldn’t ask you to share that with us, but could you give us a sense, how much has that changed your view of the world?
当然，我们不会要求您与我们分享这一点，但是您能否告诉我们，这在多大程度上改变了您的世界观？
Is it like you learn all those things and then you say, “Oh my God, this is how the world works, I never figured that,” or do you just make marginal adjustments based on what you’ve learned?
是不是你学到了所有这些东西，然后你说，“天哪，世界就是这样运作的，我从来没有想到过这一点”，或者你只是根据你所学到的东西进行边际调整？
I won’t tell you any secrets, but I suppose the one secret that I can tell you that some people just won’t believe me is: Conspiracies are unbelievably difficult, and I just don’t believe in them anymore.
我不会告诉你任何秘密，但我想我可以告诉你的一个秘密，有些人不会相信我，那就是：阴谋是难以置信的困难，我只是不再相信它们了。
I believe in cock-up.
我相信鸡鸡。
I believe there’s huge numbers of mistakes that happen, and people are constantly misjudging things.
我相信会发生大量的错误，人们不断地对事情做出错误的判断。
That, I believe in, and that leads to very, very unpredictable outcomes in some circumstances.
我相信这一点，并且在某些情况下会导致非常非常不可预测的结果。
But the conspiracies, I’m afraid, I don’t believe in them.
但这些阴谋，恐怕我不相信。
Conspiracies are unbelievably difficult, and I just don’t believe in them anymore.
阴谋是难以置信的困难，我只是不再相信它们了。
I believe in cock-up.
我相信鸡鸡。
I believe there’s huge numbers of mistakes that happen, and people are constantly misjudging things.
我相信会发生大量的错误，人们不断地对事情做出错误的判断。
That, I believe in, and that leads to very, very unpredictable outcomes in some circumstances.
我相信这一点，并且在某些情况下会导致非常非常不可预测的结果。
But the conspiracies, I’m afraid, I don’t believe in them.
但恐怕我不相信这些阴谋。
Taiwan and South Korea rose in per capita income.
台湾和韩国的人均收入有所上升。
They became democratic.
他们变得民主了。
They’re very healthy vital democracies.
它们是非常健康、充满活力的民主国家。
China did not.
中国没有。
Many people thought it would.
很多人都以为会这样。
What’s the difference?
有什么区别？
Freedom.
自由。
The fundamental —
基本原理 —
Taiwan and South Korea didn’t have freedom.
台湾和韩国没有自由。
They had enough freedom.
他们有足够的自由。
The freedom you need is the freedom to be able to hold your own property, to know the wealth that you accumulate you’ll be able to keep, and that deals you make will be, in some way, reasonably adjudicated when there’s a dispute.
您需要的自由是能够持有自己的财产的自由，知道您将能够保留的积累的财富的自由，以及当出现争议时您所做的交易将在某种程度上得到合理裁决的自由。
Taiwan and South Korea both had that.
台湾和韩国都有这个。
China has an entirely separate court system.
中国拥有完全独立的法院系统。
It has an arbitrary wealth removal system, to put it nicely.
说得好听一点，它有一个任意的财富消除系统。
It has a very brutal, tyrannical government that runs in a very disjointed way.
它有一个非常残暴、暴虐的政府，其运作方式非常混乱。
If you’re a member of the Party, you have one form of court system.
如果您是党员，您就有一种形式的法院系统。
If you are not, you have a different, and that has led to massive internal corruption.
如果不是，那就有不同的情况，这会导致大规模的内部腐败。
I don’t just mean in the usual sense, but corruption in the sense that it’s very difficult to predict the ownership of assets in large scale.
我指的不仅仅是通常意义上的腐败，而是指很难大规模预测资产所有权的腐败。
That’s really difficult.
这真的很难。
It just makes investment for the long term difficult.
它只会让长期投资变得困难。
You saw the arrest of Jack Ma being evidence of that.
马云被捕就是证明。
That was one of those moments where the wealthy got too big for their boots and were challenging the Party, and the Party will always come first.
那是富人变得太大而挑战党的时刻之一，而党永远是第一位的。
On Russia
关于俄罗斯
If we think about Russia, for a long time, maybe forever, Russia has not been close to a free country.
如果我们想想俄罗斯，很长一段时间，也许永远，俄罗斯离自由国家还很远。
If you had to try to explain, in its most fundamental and conceptual terms as possible, why that is true, how do you understand Russian history?
如果您必须尝试尽可能用最基本和概念性的术语来解释为什么这是真的，您如何理解俄罗斯历史？
Why has it gone so badly so many times?
为什么这么多次都这么糟糕？
I’ve read a fair amount of Russian history, but I’m afraid I just simply can’t explain it, but it consistently goes wrong.
我读过相当多的俄罗斯历史，但恐怕我根本无法解释它，但它总是出错。
I ask myself whether it’s to do with the scale of the country, whether it’s to do with the fact that the levels of education or the levels of connection between urban and rural areas is so great.
我问自己这是否与国家的规模有关，是否与教育水平或城乡联系程度如此之高有关。
I don’t know, but your wife left the Soviet Union, when was it, 20, 30 years ago?
我不知道，但你的妻子离开苏联，是什么时候，20、30年前？
1992.
1992年。
Yes.
是的。
What would your view be?
你的看法是什么？
I find it very difficult to say much about Russia.
我发现很难对俄罗斯说太多。
I think it’s a mix of size, its neighbors.
我认为这是大小和邻居的混合体。
It had its own version of the Turner thesis where it expanded, but that made them more brutal rather than giving them outlets to be free.
它有自己版本的特纳论文并对其进行了扩展，但这使他们更加残酷，而不是给他们自由的出路。
Urban-rural imbalance, which you mentioned; partly heritage from a more Eastern version of Christianity maybe is somewhat more authoritarian; never feeling secure, repeatedly having been invaded and almost having lost a number of historically significant times.
你提到的城乡失衡；部分继承自更东方版本的基督教，也许有点更专制；从未感到安全，屡次被入侵，几乎失去了许多具有历史意义的时刻。
Being this odd mix of European and Asian and even Muslim cultures mixed together in a way that has never quite had a stable core at its center, so there’s always this great fear of losing order.
作为欧洲、亚洲甚至穆斯林文化的奇怪混合体，其中心从来没有一个稳定的核心，所以人们总是对失去秩序抱有极大的恐惧。
But that’s just me.
但这只是我。
I’m just making that up.
我只是编造的。
We can’t test these views.
我们无法测试这些观点。
We can’t, but there’s a constant fear of chaos in the Russian — as you know, my wife’s mother was of a Russian family.
我们不能，但俄罗斯人一直担心混乱——如你所知，我妻子的母亲来自俄罗斯家庭。
The fear of chaos is something that seems to live in a lot of the Russians that we know, where they’re constantly afraid you’re going to lose everything.
我们认识的许多俄罗斯人似乎都存在对混乱的恐惧，他们总是担心你会失去一切。
Then, of course, if you look at Russian history even over the last 100 years, the probability of losing everything every 30 or 40 years is quite high.
当然，如果你看看俄罗斯过去100年的历史，你就会发现，每30年或40年失去一切的可能性相当高。
In fact, you remind me of a conversation I had with a friend of mine who was an Estonia — it was about 10 years ago — who was telling me that they would set up this e-citizenship thing, which I don’t know if you know about it, but you can become an e-citizen of Estonia.
事实上，你让我想起了我和一个爱沙尼亚朋友的对话——“那是大约十年前的事了”——他告诉我他们会建立这个电子公民身份，我不知道你是否知道，但你可以成为爱沙尼亚的电子公民。
The whole of the Estonian public record, everything is now online, every court case, every land treaty, everything.
爱沙尼亚的整个公共记录，一切现在都在网上，每一个法庭案件，每一个土地条约，一切。
Everything’s online.
一切都在线。
They’ve outsourced their record-holding to — I think it’s New Zealand, Canada, and Scotland, because they’re all common-law jurisdictions with stable governments.
他们将自己的记录外包给了——我认为是新西兰、加拿大和苏格兰，因为它们都是普通法司法管辖区，政府稳定。
I said, “Oh, that’s an extraordinary thing to do.
我说：“哦，这是一件了不起的事情。
Why have you done that?” He said, “Oh, so when the Russians come.” I said, “What do you mean when?” He said, “Oh, they always come.
你为什么这么做？他说：“哦，当俄罗斯人来的时候。”我说：“什么时候？”他说：“哦，他们总是来。
Every 40 years or so, the Russians come and they destroy us.
每隔四十年左右，俄罗斯人就会来摧毁我们。
So when the Russians come, we want to be a people without a land.”
因此，当俄罗斯人到来时，我们希望成为一个没有土地的民族。”
Should the UK modernize its nuclear deterrent?
英国应该现代化其核威慑力量吗？
If so, how?
如果是这样，怎么办？
Yes, we should.
是的，我们应该。
In fact, we’re in the process of doing it in various different ways.
事实上，我们正在以各种不同的方式做到这一点。
We should be constantly doing it.
我们应该不断地这样做。
Forgive me, I’m not going to talk about how.
请原谅我，我不会谈论如何做。
Sure.
当然。
The No First Use policy — should Britain ever announce such a thing?
不首先使用政策——英国是否应该宣布这样的事情？
I don’t think that anybody who’s ever been privy to the nuclear command change should ever discuss it.
我认为任何了解核指挥变更情况的人都不应该讨论它。
On the Tom Tugendhat production function
关于汤姆·图根哈特生产函数
I have a few questions about the Tom Tugendhat production function.
我有几个关于汤姆·图根哈特生产函数的问题。
What’s your favorite novel?
你最喜欢的小说是什么？
The Radetzky March.
拉德茨基进行曲。
It’s fabulous.
太棒了。
It’s about — have you read it?
这是关于 —— 你读过它吗？
Of course.
当然。
Joseph Roth.
约瑟夫·罗斯.
It’s wonderful.
太棒了。
Yes.
是的。
Exactly.
确切地。
It’s about the end of a certain world and the beginning of a new one.
这是关于某个世界的终结和新世界的开始。
In many ways, it’s very mournful.
从很多方面来说，这是非常悲伤的。
Of course, it’s a book about loss.
当然，这是一本关于失去的书。
It’s a book about the end.
这是一本关于结局的书。
It’s also a book about novelty and innovation because it’s the arrival of things.
这也是一本关于新奇和创新的书，因为它是事物的到来。
It’s the arrival of the telegram, the arrival of the train, the arrival of that modernity, and the challenge that that brings.
这是电报的到来，火车的到来，现代性的到来，以及随之而来的挑战。
What’s your favorite movie?
你最喜欢的电影是什么？
I have quite a few that I quite like, actually.
事实上，我有很多我很喜欢的。
I’ve recently watched again Shawshank Redemption, which is just an absolute classic.
最近又看了一遍《肖申克的救赎》，绝对是经典。
It’s a classic because the dialogue is amazing.
它之所以成为经典，是因为对话非常精彩。
I love The Princess Bride, which is incredibly funny and still has some of the greatest comic lines in the English language.
我喜欢《公主新娘》，它非常有趣，而且仍然有一些英语中最伟大的喜剧台词。
Those are two of my favorites.
这是我最喜欢的两个。
Do James Bond movies have a future?
詹姆斯·邦德电影有未来吗？
To some people, they feel too politically incorrect.
对一些人来说，他们觉得政治不正确。
In the last Bond movie — this is no longer a spoiler — Bond dies at the end.
在最后一部邦德电影中——“这不再是剧透”——“邦德最后死了。”
That just seemed wrong to me.
这对我来说似乎是错误的。
What can they do with the franchise to keep it fresh when there’s a lot of competition from other spy figures, the Bourne movies, many others?
当面临来自其他间谍人物、谍影重重系列电影等的激烈竞争时，他们该如何利用这个系列来保持新鲜感呢？
What is going to make James Bond distinctive going forward?
是什么让詹姆斯·邦德在未来变得与众不同？
The brand.
品牌。
You know this, Tyler.
你知道这一点，泰勒。
You don’t need me to tell you this, but as an economist, the brand matters.
你不需要我告诉你这一点，但作为一名经济学家，品牌很重要。
The brand is your assurance that enough money will be spent on it, that they don’t want to devalue it, that the special effects will be good enough, the music will be original enough, the screenwriter will be famous enough.
品牌是你的保证，保证你会花足够的钱，他们不想让它贬值，特效足够好，音乐足够原创，编剧足够出名。
Whatever it is that you’re looking for — the actors will be popular enough.
无论您要寻找什么，演员都会足够受欢迎。
It’ll all be there because the brand is strong enough.
一切都会在那里，因为品牌足够强大。
I don’t know who the next Bond is going to be.
我不知道下一个邦德会是谁。
I’m sure they could be from any background at all, a little bit like the Doctor Who franchise where the Doctor — they have a term for it.
我确信他们可能来自任何背景，有点像《神秘博士》系列，其中“博士”——他们有一个术语。
I can’t remember what the term is now, but there reappears in various different human forms.
我现在不记得这个词是什么了，但它以各种不同的人类形式重新出现。
Bond will reemerge, and no doubt, another double-O-something, rather, will happen.
邦德将会重新出现，毫无疑问，另一件双O的事情将会发生。
What did you learn from your father?
你从你父亲身上学到了什么？
Kindness.
仁慈。
What did you learn from your mother?
你从你妈妈身上学到了什么？
The same, actually.
其实是一样的
The same.
相同。
Double influence.
双重影响。
What’s the most underrated Beatles song?
披头士乐队最被低估的歌曲是什么？
That’s a very good question.
这是一个很好的问题。
I love “Hey Jude.” Still a fan of that.
我喜欢“嘿裘德”。仍然是那个的粉丝。
It may not be underrated, right?
它可能不会被低估，对吧？
No, it’s not really underrated.
不，它并没有被真正低估。
I’m trying to think of what —
我正在努力思考什么 ——
I would say “You Won’t See Me” of Rubber Soul as the most underrated, but it’s not the best.
我想说橡胶灵魂的“你不会看到我”是最被低估的，但它不是最好的。
Yes.
是的。
It’s not the best.
这不是最好的。
The problem is, when you say underrated, you immediately go to your favorite one, and your favorite one is almost by definition not underrated, because you know — very well.
问题是，当你说被低估时，你会立即转到你最喜欢的一部，而你最喜欢的一部几乎从定义上来说就不是被低估的，因为你知道 —— 非常清楚。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
Sorry.
对不起。
Civil service salaries in the UK, they seem to an American quite low.
英国公务员的工资在美国人看来相当低。
The cost of living in London, by any standard, is quite high.
无论以任何标准衡量，伦敦的生活成本都相当高。
How should that problem be addressed?
这个问题应该如何解决呢？
Well, there’s two ways to address it, aren’t there?
好吧，有两种方法可以解决这个问题，不是吗？
One of them is to build more homes.
其中之一是建造更多房屋。
The other one is to raise salaries.
另外一个就是加薪。
One’s quicker than the other.
一个比另一个快。
Actually, the truth is, a combination is likely to be necessary because senior civil servant salaries have flatlined, largely — by which, of course, they’ve gone down in real terms over 20 or so years.
事实上，事实是，这种结合可能是必要的，因为高级公务员的工资已经基本持平，当然，在过去 20 多年里，他们的实际工资已经下降。
You’re asking people to do really important and difficult jobs, and the competition for those jobs is not just the salary, of course.
你要求人们做非常重要和困难的工作，当然，这些工作的竞争不仅仅是薪水。
Very often you can offer similar salaries in the private sector, but it’s the interest.
很多时候，你可以在私营部门提供类似的薪水，但这就是利息。
That’s the real thing you’re offering.
这就是你所提供的真实的东西。
It’s one of the things I’ve noticed, actually, is that whenever the government is the only provider of that service — so intelligence or defense — and you can only really do it properly in government, then despite the salary differential, you still get the best people.
事实上，我注意到的一件事是，每当政府是该服务的唯一提供者时——比如情报或国防——而你只能在政府中真正做到这一点，那么尽管工资存在差异，你仍然会得到最好的人才。
Unquestionably the best people in intelligence work, in security work, are working for the state, because only working for the state can you truly use all the powers and resources available.
毫无疑问，情报工作、安全工作中最优秀的人都是为国家工作，因为只有为国家工作，你才能真正使用所有可用的权力和资源。
Whereas in other areas, where you can do logistics for a private company or for a state company, you can do processing for a private company or a state company, then the competition is much harder.
而在其他领域，你可以为私营公司或国有公司做物流，你可以为私营公司或国有公司做加工，那么竞争就更加激烈。
If a talented young person comes to you and wants you to make the case why they should work in the British civil service, not at a top job, but mid-level, maybe a higher job later on, what’s the case you would make to them?
如果一个有才华的年轻人来找你，想让你解释为什么他们应该在英国公务员队伍中工作，不是担任高级职位，而是中级职位，也许以后会担任更高的职位，你会向他们解释什么？
You get a lot more responsibility much earlier than you’d probably imagine.
你比你想象的更早地承担了更多的责任。
You really get an extraordinary breadth of opportunity to take decisions that actually do have really serious influence to shape government policy and, very often, to work with some incredibly interesting people.
你确实获得了非常广泛的机会来做出对制定政府政策确实有真正重大影响的决定，并且经常与一些非常有趣的人一起工作。
One of the things that you can do in government that is harder — it’s not impossible, but it’s harder in most companies — is you can change your job every two years, and you can go and do things across the range of government in ways that is very difficult to do across the range of business.
在政府中你可以做的一件更困难的事情——这并非不可能，但在大多数公司更难——就是你可以每两年换一次工作，你可以在政府范围内做一些事情，而这在整个企业范围内是很难做到的。
I know people who’ve worked in intelligence, who’ve worked in trade, who’ve worked abroad, who’ve worked at home, who’ve worked in various different things, in a career that’s lasted 10 or 15 years.
我认识一些人，他们从事过情报工作、从事过贸易工作、在国外工作过、在国内工作过、从事过各种不同的工作，他们的职业生涯持续了 10 或 15 年。
It’s unusual to be quite that broad in reach, but it’s certainly not impossible, and that’s a remarkable ability to do that.
如此广泛的影响力是不寻常的，但这当然不是不可能的，而且这是一种非凡的能力。
Very last question.
最后一个问题。
What led you to enter politics when you did?
是什么促使您进入政界？
It matters.
这很重要。
It just really matters.
这真的很重要。
I’d been a soldier in Iraq and Afghanistan for the best part of 10 years, 15 years.
我在伊拉克和阿富汗服役了 10、15 年的大部分时间。
Not full time in Iraq and Afghanistan, but I’d been soldiering for 10 or 15 years, and it was time for me to go and do something else.
虽然我不是在伊拉克和阿富汗全职服役，但我已经当兵 10 或 15 年了，是时候去做点别的事情了。
If you care about your country and you care about the way in which we’re governed, then there’s only one place the orders start, and that’s with a democracy, that’s in Parliament.
如果你关心你的国家，关心我们的治理方式，那么命令的起点只有一个地方，那就是民主国家，那就是议会。
What I’d seen in the armed forces was young men and women doing the most extraordinary things, demonstrating the most extraordinary courage, serving our country in the most extraordinary way.
我在军队中看到的是年轻男女做着最非凡的事情，表现出最非凡的勇气，以最非凡的方式为我们的国家服务。
I’d seen some amazing leadership.
我见过一些令人惊叹的领导力。
Real leaders at every level, leaders at very junior level, 21-, 22-year-old corporals demonstrating real leadership, and the person I work for, the chief of the defense staff, so the most senior general in the British army, demonstrating real strategic leadership.
各级真正的领导者，非常初级的领导者，21岁、22岁的下士展示了真正的领导力，而我的工作人员，国防参谋长，英国军队中最高级的将军，展示了真正的战略领导力。
I’d seen that we need to act on it, and so I brought what I thought was the best of that, and I tried to bring some of that to Parliament.
我发现我们需要对此采取行动，所以我提出了我认为最好的建议，并试图将其中的一些带到议会。
Because there’s a lot of people who, these days, I know, in both of our cultures — because there’s a very high respect for the military in the United States and the United Kingdom, there’s a lot of people who say, “Well, then there must be a military answer to this.” Not just by the use of force, but you call in a general to fix a problem because generals do stuff.
因为我知道，现在有很多人在我们两种文化中 ——因为美国和英国都非常尊重军队，所以很多人说，“好吧，那么必须有一个军事答案。”不仅仅是使用武力，你还可以召集将军来解决问题，因为将军会做事。
Of course, on one level, that’s true, that’s right.
当然，从某一层面来说，这是真的，没错。
But on another level, it simply cannot be right that the only way to help disadvantaged kids is for them to join the armed forces, or the only way for young people to have an opportunity from a certain area is to join the armed forces.
但在另一个层面上，认为帮助弱势儿童的唯一方法就是让他们加入武装部队，或者让某个地区的年轻人获得机会的唯一方法就是加入武装部队，这根本就是不对的。
Time and again, the young men and women I was working with had a brother or a sister or a parent who was unbelievably disadvantaged and just couldn’t get a way out of it, and they’d got out of it through the military.
一次又一次，与我一起工作的年轻男女的兄弟、姐妹或父母处于令人难以置信的不利境地，无法摆脱困境，而他们通过军队摆脱了困境。
But again, that can’t be the only way out of it.
但话又说回来，这并不是唯一的出路。
I got into politics because I think you’ve got to find a better way of fixing things.
我进入政界是因为我认为你必须找到更好的方法来解决问题。
You’ve got to find a better way out of these things.
你必须找到更好的方法来摆脱这些事情。
You’ve got to find a better way of solving these problems.
你必须找到更好的方法来解决这些问题。
I think a military attitude helps because it’s an attitude of building a team and delivering.
我认为军事态度会有所帮助，因为这是一种建立团队和交付成果的态度。
It’s an attitude that seeks to respect and support leadership, and offering that leadership is what matters.
这是一种寻求尊重和支持领导力的态度，而提供这种领导力才是最重要的。
That’s why I’m standing as well.
这就是为什么我也站着。
I’m standing because I think if you want to serve your country, if you want to offer leadership at a moment when, frankly, the world is deeply uncertain and the challenges at home of underinvestment over 30, 40 years have never been more obvious, the need to act in the national interest has never been stronger, and that’s what I think we need out of British politics today.
我站起来是因为我认为，如果你想为你的国家服务，如果你想在世界充满不确定性的时刻发挥领导作用，而国内30、40年来投资不足的挑战从未如此明显，为国家利益采取行动的必要性也从未如此强烈，而这就是我们今天在英国政治中所需要的。
Tom Tugendhat, thank you very much.
汤姆·图根哈特，非常感谢你。
Thanks, Tyler.
谢谢，泰勒。
It’s good to see you again.
很高兴再次见到你。
Same here.
同样在这里。
Photo Credit: This photo is licensed under Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
照片来源：这张照片已获得 Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International 许可