Shruti Rajagopalan talks to Daniel Gross and Tyler about Identifying and Predicting Talent (Ep. 158 — BONUS)

On underrated talents

论被低估的人才

There’s something that’s been helpful for me that I’ve realized I have, that I think many people have — I don’t know if it’s totally ubiquitous — is, in the process of an interview — which you do in venture a lot, hundreds and thousands of times a year — being able to build a grid of the person that’s talking to you, who they most remind you of and the outcomes that those people have had, is I think a pretty important skill.

我意识到我有一些对我很有帮助的东西，我想很多人都拥有 —— 我不知道它是否完全无处不在 —— 在面试过程中 —— 你每年都会做成百上千次 ——能够建立一个网格，其中包含与你交谈的人、他们最让你想起的人以及结果我认为这些人所拥有的技能是一项非常重要的技能。

It’s a pretty important skill for anyone searching for talent, but certainly, in the venture world, it’s what you’re doing.

对于任何寻找人才的人来说，这是一项非常重要的技能，但当然，在风险投资领域，这就是你正在做的事情。

When you meet these early-stage businesses, you’re trying to build some type of search map in your head that’s more intuitive than it is rational.

当你遇到这些处于早期阶段的企业时，你会尝试在头脑中构建某种类型的搜索地图，该地图比理性更直观。

It’s sometimes a bit hard to explain why X might remind you of Y.

有时很难解释为什么 X 会让你想起 Y。

That’s a skill.

这是一项技能。

That’s a skill I think a lot of people have.

我认为这是很多人都具备的技能。

The benefit I’ve had is I got inculcated in this world at a very young age, so I’ve had many, many hours of reps, just getting it in and mostly making mistakes, but occasionally getting it right.

我所得到的好处是，我在很小的时候就被灌输了这个世界的观念，所以我已经进行了很多很多个小时的重复，只是将其融入其中，大多数时候都会犯错误，但偶尔也会做对。

I think one thing I’m good at is turning problems into combinatorials, then within my head very rapidly searching for all possible combinations of factors that might somehow fit together, and spitting that out in well under a second.

我认为我擅长的一件事是将问题转化为组合，然后在我的脑海中快速搜索可能以某种方式组合在一起的因素的所有可能组合，并在一秒钟内将其吐出。

I’m not even sure that’s an underrated talent, but I think it’s a way to think about some of the talents I have.

我什至不确定这是一种被低估的才能，但我认为这是思考我所拥有的一些才能的一种方式。

If it’s an area where I can turn it into that, I will typically do quite well.

如果这是一个我可以把它变成那样的领域，我通常会做得很好。

But if it’s like trying to work the microwave at home, which I cannot turn into some kind of combinatorial factorial analysis, then I’m way below average at trying to work the microwave at home.

但如果这就像尝试在家使用微波炉一样，而我无法将其转化为某种组合因子分析，那么我在尝试在家使用微波炉方面就远低于平均水平。

On talent in the start-up world

论初创企业中的人才

At the end of the day, start-ups are a very funny activity when you think about it from a probability standpoint.

归根结底，当你从概率的角度思考时，初创企业是一项非常有趣的活动。

Most companies fail.

大多数公司都失败了。

Almost all companies fail, and yet, people seem to be seemingly doing this activity over and over.

几乎所有公司都失败了，然而，人们似乎一遍又一遍地进行这种活动。

They’re jumping off the cliff over and over again.

他们一次又一次地从悬崖上跳下去。

You look over the cliff, and everyone who jumped off of the cliff is just on the ground dead, but people keep on jumping off the cliff.

你往悬崖上看去，所有跳下悬崖的人都已经死在地上了，但人们却不断地跳下悬崖。

Founders are almost too optimistic.

创始人几乎过于乐观了。

When you’re evaluating a business, especially at later and later stages, I think optimism can be your enemy.

当你评估一家企业时，尤其是在后期阶段，我认为乐观可能是你的敌人。

Often, you see when a lot of founders later on in life — and I’m such a person — who started a business, sold it, and became an investor, you actually have to be able to wear very different kinds of psychometric hats.

通常，你会看到，当很多创始人在以后的生活中————而我就是这样的人————创办一家企业，出售它，并成为一名投资者时，你实际上必须能够戴上非常不同类型的心理测量帽子。

One of them is this continuum of realism and optimism.

其中之一就是这种现实主义和乐观主义的连续性。

I’d probably say that’s the starkest difference between what makes a good start-up investor and a good founder.

我可能会说，这是优秀的初创投资者和优秀创始人之间最明显的区别。

There are probably many others, but that’s the main thing that you look for.

可能还有很多其他的，但这是您要寻找的主要内容。

On how to attract talent

关于如何吸引人才

What is the secret sauce at George Mason that it manages to attract that kind of talent that other schools of comparable level are not able to?

乔治梅森大学成功吸引其他同等水平学校所无法吸引的人才的秘诀是什么？

If you decide you will specialize in people who believe in something and pursue it passionately and want to sit around and argue and talk ideas and read books, you will end up with one of the most interesting economics departments.

如果你决定专注于那些相信某件事并热情地追求它并愿意坐下来争论、谈论想法和读书的人，那么你最终会选择最有趣的经济学系之一。

We’ve built a sufficiently strong consensus that we just keep on hiring people who believe things.

我们已经建立了足够强烈的共识，我们只是继续雇用有信念的人。

They turn out being a little wacky, but you’re selecting for that.

事实证明它们有点古怪，但你正在为此做出选择。

That, in turn, keeps you different.

反过来，这又会让你与众不同。

You just have to show up in the room.

你只需要出现在房间里。

It’s one case where you don’t have to agonize over optimal interview questions.

在这种情况下，你不必为最佳面试问题而苦恼。

In fact, the way we’re supposed to interview now — not just supposed to, but do — is we’re to ask everyone the same questions, and we do.

事实上，我们现在应该采访的方式——不仅是应该这样做，而且是这样做——我们要问每个人同样的问题，我们确实这样做了。

But that doesn’t matter.

但这并不重要。

It’s not actually a handicap.

这实际上并不是一个障碍。

It would be a handicap in almost any other situation.

在几乎任何其他情况下，这都会成为一个障碍。

You can ask everyone the same questions, and it will just come out who believes in something.

你可以问每个人同样的问题，然后就会知道谁相信某件事。

On competition vs. cooperation

论竞争与合作

The broad idea there is trying to really address a question somewhat related to talent, which is, why aren’t there more start-ups?

其广泛的想法是试图真正解决一个与人才有些相关的问题，即为什么没有更多的初创企业？

And there are many answers to this question, but one of the reasons why there aren’t more start-ups is — as we were saying earlier — the act of starting a company is completely irrational, and you tend to get a lot of negative stimulus before you get positive stimulus.

这个问题有很多答案，但初创企业不多的原因之一是 ——正如我们之前所说的 ——创办公司的行为是完全不理性的，在获得积极刺激之前你往往会受到很多消极刺激。

You start working at a new job.

您开始从事新工作。

You have a boss, and that boss wants to, hopefully, make it a good experience for you.

您有一位老板，而这位老板希望为您带来良好的体验。

They tend to build a map and a game for you — “basic game” in quotes here.

他们倾向于为你构建一张地图和一个游戏 —— 这里用引号引起来的“基本游戏”。

Start-up doesn’t have that.

初创公司没有这个。

You tend to just hear, “No, no, no, fail.” Then finally, you might get somewhere, but a lot of people don’t crest beyond the J curve, really, and they just drop at the nadir.

你往往只会听到“不，不，不，失败”。最后，你可能会到达某个地方，但实际上很多人并没有达到 J 曲线的顶峰，他们只是跌到了最低点。

Gamification is a way or some way to make something compelling.

游戏化是一种使某些事物引人注目的方式。

Ultimately, the goal of basically creating more start-ups is the theory behind Pioneer, somewhat how Peloton gets more people to cycle.

最终，创建更多初创企业的目标是 Pioneer 背后的理论，有点像 Peloton 如何让更多人骑自行车。

Heck, people in South Korea are literally dying of exhaustion because they’re playing video games to death.

哎呀，韩国人简直要累死了，因为他们玩电子游戏到死。

There is something very powerful about that effect, whether it’s used positively or negatively.

无论是积极的还是消极的，这种效应都有着非常强大的力量。

Now, you ask the question of what creates more goodness, basically — competition or cooperation.

现在，你问什么能创造更多的善，基本上是竞争还是合作。

We think competition, broadly, is what creates greatness.

我们认为，从广义上讲，竞争是创造伟大的因素。

The answer is both, obviously, because competition creates cooperation within small groups that compete against each other.

显然，答案是两者都是，因为竞争会在相互竞争的小群体内部创造合作。

Now, it is true that not everyone who signs up for Pioneer wants to compete on a global leaderboard against everyone else in the world.

现在，确实并不是每个注册先锋的人都想在全球排行榜上与世界上的其他人竞争。

Very good competitors, I think, even the best, most competitive people tend to have a predictive model of like, “I’m only going to enter games I can win, or at least, games where I have maybe a 40 percent chance of winning.” But I strongly believe, whether you want to compete globally or not, everyone wants to improve every single day.

我认为，非常优秀的竞争对手，即使是最优秀、最具竞争力的人也往往有这样的预测模型：“我只会参加我能赢的比赛，或者至少参加我可能有 40% 获胜机会的比赛。”但我坚信，无论你是否想参与全球竞争，每个人都希望每一天都有进步。

It’s very similar to Peloton in the sense that you can have a score, and you could be playing against yourself.

从某种意义上说，它与 Peloton 非常相似，你可以得分，并且你可以与自己比赛。

You could just be trying to grow your revenue week over week, or the amount of active users you have, or any one of different metrics and KPIs , or you could be competing globally.

您可能只是想每周增加您的收入，或者您拥有的活跃用户数量，或者任何一个不同的指标和 KPI，或者您可以在全球范围内竞争。

I think that affords us all modalities because I really think there are very few people that don’t want to improve at least themselves, if not want to compete against others.

我认为这为我们提供了所有的方式，因为我真的认为很少有人不想至少提高自己，如果不想与他人竞争的话。

Of course, every form of competition usually will entail some form of local cooperation, and I think it’s a very good thing.

当然，每一种形式的竞争通常都会带来某种形式的本地合作，我认为这是一件非常好的事情。

Ultimately, a lot of what a free market enables is for people to get excited about the idea of competing, building a better product, trying a new experience.

最终，自由市场带来的很多好处是让人们对竞争、打造更好的产品、尝试新体验的想法感到兴奋。

Many of those fail, but occasionally, those work, and it creates the microphones that we’re using, the building that we’re in, and the city and world that we live in.

其中许多都失败了，但偶尔，这些会起作用，它创造了我们正在使用的麦克风、我们所在的建筑以及我们居住的城市和世界。

So, I think both are necessary

所以我认为两者都是必要的

On forming communities

关于形成社区

There’s no direct reward.

没有直接的奖励。

The guarantee Pioneer gives you is that if you’re in the top decile, we will review your application, but you could be 25th or 32nd — it doesn’t matter, we still review your application.

先锋向您提供的保证是，如果您位于前十分位，我们将审核您的申请，但您也可能排名第 25 或第 32   —  没关系，我们仍然会审核您的申请。

It just helps us in that case to get a broad sort, and because the game is not that zero-sum, I think people still tend to at least cooperate on non-business-related things.

在这种情况下，它只是帮助我们进行广泛的分类，而且因为游戏不是那么零和，我认为人们仍然倾向于至少在与业务无关的事情上进行合作。

I think on business-related matters, founders should either merge their companies or compete and not cooperate.

我认为在商业相关的问题上，创始人应该要么合并公司，要么竞争而不是合作。

That’s totally fine.

那完全没问题。

I think we manage to have the best of both worlds.

我认为我们能够两全其美。

But I do think, when constructing these universes and whatnot, it’s quite important for it to not feel necessarily zero-sum.

但我确实认为，在构建这些宇宙之类的东西时，不要感觉一定是零和的，这一点非常重要。

You could go compete with someone on a running track, and ultimately, their running faster than you doesn’t eat away at any of your pie, so to speak.

你可以在跑道上与某人竞争，最终，他们跑得比你快并不会吃掉你的任何馅饼，可以这么说。

And I think that’s important because, like everything, it’s a spectrum.

我认为这很重要，因为就像一切一样，它是一个频谱。

A lot of these start-up communities — and ultimately, San Francisco is one for better or worse.

很多这样的初创社区 ——最终，旧金山是一个无论好坏的社区。

It’s basically a giant start-up campus.

它基本上是一个巨大的初创企业园区。

They work because people do, at the end of the day, feel some form — even if it’s not directly related to their business — but some form of kinship with each other.

它们之所以有效，是因为人们在一天结束时确实感受到某种形式的 ——即使这与他们的业务没有直接关系——但彼此之间存在某种形式的亲缘关系。

Silicon Valley lore’s obviously littered with stories of the person who let me sleep on their couch, and one thing led to the next, so we have both, I hope.

硅谷的传说显然充斥着让我睡在沙发上的人的故事，一件事引发了另一件事，所以我希望我们两者都有。

Many people now like to talk about how bad social media is and how bad these online communities are.

现在很多人喜欢谈论社交媒体有多么糟糕以及这些在线社区有多么糟糕。

That’s a very nice thing to say when you’re looking out into the rolling hills of Sonoma and this beautiful world that we live in here today.

当你眺望索诺玛连绵起伏的群山和我们今天生活在这里的这个美丽世界时，说这句话真是太好了。

Look, obviously, the place where I grew up is certainly not a third world country, but it’s very different and isolating, to be honest.

显然，我长大的地方当然不是第三世界国家，但说实话，它非常不同且孤立。

I think there are many people who immigrate to San Francisco and California who feel similarly.

我想很多移民到旧金山和加州的人也有类似的感受。

The idea of growing up on the internet does let you see all sorts of experiments.

在互联网上长大的想法确实让你看到了各种各样的实验。

I grew up in the open-source community, writing code.

我在开源社区长大，编写代码。

And so that, to me, was an interesting example of a very different organizational model than many different companies, where the leadership in some of these open-source projects is actually quite undefined, and you really tend to see those struggle versus ones that have a defined leader.

因此，对我来说，这是一个与许多不同公司非常不同的组织模式的一个有趣的例子，其中一些开源项目的领导实际上是相当不确定的，你真的很容易看到那些斗争与那些有明确领导者的项目的斗争。

There’s an infinite variety of forms of cooperation, but I can’t really credit Israel with that.

合作的形式有无数种，但我不能真正把这归功于以色列。

I’d probably really credit at the time, the 56-kilobyte dial-up internet connection I had.

我当时可能真的很感谢我拥有的 56KB 拨号互联网连接。

On desserts

关于甜点

The fact that desserts tend to be sweet — that was a decision made in Western cuisine.

事实上，甜点往往是甜的——这是西方烹饪的一个决定。

The French decided to segregate out the sweet stuff and make it separate from the meal.

法国人决定将甜食分开，将其与膳食分开。

Say, Arabic food, or even food still in Sicily today — the sweets are integrated into the main courses much more readily — parts of the Middle East, as well.

比如说，阿拉伯食物，甚至今天西西里岛仍然存在的食物 ——“甜食更容易融入主菜中”—— 中东部分地区也是如此。

When you put all the sweet stuff in one place, it’s not going to be good unless it has a very high level of ingredient quality and composition.

当你把所有的甜食放在一个地方时，除非它具有非常高水平的成分质量和成分，否则它不会很好。

The internet has failed us.

互联网让我们失望了。

San Francisco has failed us.

旧金山让我们失望了。

Chocolate ice cream has failed us — some combination of all those things.

巧克力冰淇淋让我们失望了——所有这些事情的综合。

I’d rather eat in Israel, in Tel Aviv.

我宁愿在以色列特拉维夫吃饭。

There’s excellent chocolate ice cream, better than in Jerusalem, I think.

这里有很棒的巧克力冰淇淋，我认为比耶路撒冷更好。

I think Peloton was an interesting case study.

我认为 Peloton 是一个有趣的案例研究。

It’s an ongoing case study that’s being evaluated every day in the market, not positively, but it’s an interesting case study in how much gamification matters at all.

这是一个正在进行的案例研究，市场上每天都在进行评估，虽然不是积极的，但它是一个有趣的案例研究，说明游戏化到底有多重要。

It does seem people are actually quite motivated by whatever leaderboard and power mechanics they have out there.

看起来人们确实很受他们所拥有的排行榜和权力机制的激励。

On the contrary side, they’ve released this thing that totally flopped.

相反，他们发布了这个完全失败的东西。

I thought it was fascinating that it didn’t work.

我觉得这很有趣，但它不起作用。

A priori, if I were to describe to you here some type of thing you can use on an exercise bike, what it does is, it responds to the music that you are listening to.

首先，如果我要在这里向您描述一些可以在健身自行车上使用的东西，它的作用是，它会对您正在听的音乐做出反应。

As the tempo of the music increases, you pedal faster, and as the tempo of the music decreases — whatever, it’s all synchronized, and it’s fun.

随着音乐节奏的加快，你踩得更快，而随着音乐节奏的减弱 —— 无论如何，一切都是同步的，而且很有趣。

If I was pitching that at a venture firm, I think people would say, “Wow, sounds great.” Peloton built this, and they launched it.

如果我在一家风险投资公司推销这一点，我想人们会说，“哇，听起来很棒。” Peloton 建造了这个，然后他们推出了它。

This particular thing totally flopped.

这件事彻底失败了。

I think people tend to really overcomplicate it.

我认为人们往往把它过于复杂化了。

I think there are psychometric personalities — I imagine mine — that are relentlessly interested in improving, and for that, getting a tight feedback loop with any type of numerical score is very good and very simple.

我认为有一些心理测量人格 ——我想我的人格——对改进有着不懈的兴趣，为此，获得任何类型的数字分数的紧密反馈循环都是非常好的而且非常简单的。

I think there are people that don’t really care about that, and want to watch YouTube and get the work in and move on.

我认为有些人并不真正关心这一点，只是想观看 YouTube 并开始工作并继续前进。

Ultimately, yes, I think it probably helps a certain type of personality.

最终，是的，我认为这可能有助于某种类型的性格。

On chess and competition

关于国际象棋和比赛

But I can wake up every morning, do my thing, practice at it, try to progress, and just relentlessly, endlessly do that forever, as I’ve actually done now for the last, basically, 46 years.

但我可以每天早上醒来，做我的事情，练习它，努力进步，然后不懈地、永无休止地这样做，就像我在过去 46 年里实际上所做的那样。

That’s a kind of obsessiveness, but I’m not competing very much at all.

这是一种痴迷，但我根本不怎么竞争。

I don’t know what my leaderboards are, and I’m fine with that.

我不知道我的排行榜是什么，但我对此很满意。

You could describe yourself better than I could you, but I think your experience is one of the world of gaming more fundamentally.

你可以比我更好地描述自己，但我认为你的经历更根本的是游戏世界之一。

I quit chess when I was 15 because, in a way, I found competing a little boring, actually.

我 15 岁时就放弃了国际象棋，因为在某种程度上，我发现竞争实际上有点无聊。

It wasn’t obsessive enough, in a funny way.

有趣的是，这还不够痴迷。

The thing always comes to an end, whereas what I do now — it never comes to an end.

事情总会有结束的时候，而我现在所做的 —— 却永远不会结束。

It’s a true extreme of relentlessness.

这是真正的无情的极端。

Does that make sense to you?

这对你来说有意义吗？

At the time, I thought chess-playing computers — it was a very far-off thing that they would ever be good.

当时，我认为会下棋的计算机 ——它们永远是一件非常遥远的事情。

Obviously, I was totally wrong.

显然，我完全错了。

I didn’t understand how they would manage to copy intuition in different ways.

我不明白他们如何以不同的方式复制直觉。

I think that Borges’ notion of the infinite, unending system, the infinite library, is what really appeals to me.

我认为博尔赫斯关于无限、永无止境的系统、无限图书馆的概念才是真正吸引我的地方。

With the internet, I would have found that more quickly — indeed, in the internet itself, as I have, in a sense, now.

有了互联网，我就能更快地发现这一点——事实上，在互联网本身，从某种意义上说，就像我现在所做的那样。

Ben Casnocha once made to me the interesting point, I’m the last generation to have lived in both worlds in a significant way: with internet and without internet.

本·卡斯诺查（Ben Casnocha）曾经向我提出了一个有趣的观点，我是最后一代以一种重要的方式生活在两个世界中的人：有互联网的世界和没有互联网的世界。

I’ve lived 22, 23 years with a lot of internet, and then I lived well over 30 years without any internet at all.

我已经生活了 22 年、23 年，并且有很多互联网，然后我生活了 30 多年，根本没有任何互联网。

That’s just not going to be a thing anymore.

那将不再是问题了。

I feel very privileged, actually, to have grown up in libraries and not the internet, but then to have had the internet.

事实上，我感到非常荣幸，我是在图书馆而不是互联网中长大的，但后来拥有了互联网。

On how to screen for settlers on Mars

关于如何筛选火星上的定居者

I think an interesting broader question for that colony will be, what’s going to keep people together during the hard times?

我认为对于该殖民地来说，一个更有趣的更广泛的问题是，什么能让人们在困难时期团结在一起？

If you look at successful countries that were settled, there were very strong religious ties that built out lore, that helped create fabric.

如果你看看那些成功定居的国家，就会发现有非常牢固的宗教联系，它们创造了传说，帮助创造了织物。

Look, maybe the conditions will be so harsh that that alone will create ties.

听着，也许条件会非常恶劣，仅凭这一点就能建立联系。

I’d be looking and asking for groups of people — I would make no case on what form of religion is the best — but groups of people that are very connected on some very deep level because otherwise, I think you can end up with something that blows up.

我会寻找并询问一群人——“我不会说明什么形式的宗教是最好的”——但这些人在某些非常深层的层面上联系紧密，否则，我认为你最终可能会得到一些爆炸性的结果。

Tyler, what do you think?

泰勒，你觉得怎么样？

Diet Coke drinking?

喝健怡可乐？

There’s no Diet Coke .

没有健怡可乐。

.

。

.

。

I think simply whether the person is American is, to me, of critical import for settling Mars.

我认为这个人是否是美国人对我来说对于定居火星至关重要。

I think Americans are fairly well-situated to settle Mars — pretty high level of trust, frontier mentality.

我认为美国人在定居火星方面处于相当有利的位置——相当高水平的信任和前沿心态。

A lot of us are crazy.

我们很多人都疯了。

We’re relatively religious.

我们比较虔诚。

The notion of settling a hostile territory obviously is in our cultural DNA.

解决敌对领土问题的观念显然已融入我们的文化基因中。

Israelis, possibly.

以色列人，可能。

It’s a little more complicated because for Israel, it’s a bit more about settling a specific place, which Mars is not.

这有点复杂，因为对于以色列来说，这更多的是关于在一个特定的地方定居，而火星不是。

Nonetheless, there’s the sense of braving the hostile elements.

尽管如此，还是有一种勇敢面对敌对因素的感觉。

So, religious Americans and Israelis would be my first cut at it.

因此，有宗教信仰的美国人和以色列人将是我的第一个切入点。

I would even consider LDS Mormons, who tend to have beliefs about other worlds and that human beings should have some role in colonizing other worlds.

我什至会考虑摩门教徒，他们倾向于相信其他世界，并且认为人类应该在殖民其他世界中发挥一定作用。

That might help.

这可能有帮助。

I don’t know if that’s the strongest LDS belief, but it’s not going to hurt any.

我不知道这是否是摩门教最强烈的信仰，但这不会伤害任何人。

I want to double down on the Americans and not, say, the Belgians.

我想加倍关注美国人，而不是比利时人。

Nothing against the Belgians.

没有什么反对比利时人的。

They have amazing chocolate ice cream —

他们有很棒的巧克力冰淇淋 —

On talent market failures

论人才市场失灵

I think chess is a pretty efficient market, especially now that many more people in India and China are playing.

我认为国际象棋是一个非常有效的市场，尤其是现在印度和中国有更多的人在玩国际象棋。

Well, you play with computers, you can become as good as quickly as you’re able to.

好吧，只要你玩电脑，你就能尽快变得优秀。

But when it’s intangibles, I think there’s a common situation where, when the time comes to make a hire, you feel rather stuck.

但当它是无形资产时，我认为有一种常见的情况，当需要招聘时，你会感到相当困惑。

Ex ante, hardly anyone is doing all the right things in terms of investing in preexisting networks, honing their own abilities, making themselves sufficiently inspiring, figuring out how to attract the talented people to come to them.

事前，几乎没有人在投资现有网络、磨练自己的能力、让自己足够鼓舞人心、弄清楚如何吸引有才华的人加入自己等方面做所有正确的事情。

Those are the more difficult tasks.

这些是更困难的任务。

It’s not like you sit on your throne, and three candidates show up, and you point to the one, and you’re only going to get so much better at that.

这不像你坐在你的宝座上，三位候选人出现，你指向其中一位，你只会在这方面做得更好。

You can get better at that, but I don’t view that as the way to think about the market failure.

你可以在这方面做得更好，但我不认为这是思考市场失灵的方式。

In most general terms, if you find a great person, you make them a lot better.

一般来说，如果你找到了一个很棒的人，你就会让他们变得更好。

They capture a lot of that value, so you underinvest in doing that.

他们获取了很多价值，所以你在这方面的投资不足。

That’s the fundamental problem.

这是根本问题。

Whoever first spotted Elon Musk has basically no share in Elon’s riches.

无论是谁第一个发现埃隆·马斯克，基本上都无法分享埃隆的财富。

You could say, well, Peter Thiel at some modestly later stage spotted Elon and earned some money from spotting Elon.

你可以说，彼得·泰尔在后来的某个阶段发现了埃隆，并通过发现埃隆赚了一些钱。

But that’s the actual problem.

但这才是真正的问题。

You can help people a lot and get nothing for it.

你可以帮助别人很多，却一无所获。

On implementing insights from the book

关于实施书中的见解

Look, we obviously already experienced some heightened awareness around an act which most people are not sufficiently focused on, which is the interview itself.

看，我们显然已经对大多数人没有充分关注的行为（即采访本身）有了更高的认识。

That only increases, I think, after something like the book comes out.

我认为，在这本书出版之后，这种情况只会增加。

We have always been trying different interview questions.

我们一直在尝试不同的面试问题。

The book is really just like a cut from a very long list that keeps on growing.

这本书实际上就像是从一个不断增长的很长的清单中剪下来的。

I think we’ll continue to iterate on that, over time.

我认为随着时间的推移，我们将继续迭代这一点。

I’d say that the biggest shift in my thinking on talent, as a by-product of working with Tyler, has been on the value of things like energy and sturdiness and industriousness over raw intellect and IQ, which I don’t think is properly .

我想说，作为与泰勒合作的副产品，我对人才的看法发生了最大的转变，那就是精力、坚强和勤奋等东西的价值超过了原始智力和智商，我认为这是不正确的。

.

。

.

。

It certainly wasn’t in my mindset a couple of years ago, and I still don’t think it’s in the global mindset.

几年前，这当然不是我的思维方式，而且我仍然不认为这是全球思维方式。

We’re certainly not saying that horsepower and IQ don’t matter.

我们当然不是说马力和智商不重要。

They certainly do, but there is a clearing bar at which point, for most roles, I think people tend to overvalue it and don’t realize the logarithmic nature of the curve and assume it’s linear.

他们当然这样做，但对于大多数角色来说，存在一个清除栏，我认为人们往往会高估它，并且没有意识到曲线的对数性质并假设它是线性的。

But I actually think, earlier than many people realize, you want to switch to caring about just how vigorous and how energetic that person is.

但我实际上认为，比许多人意识到的更早，你想转而关心这个人有多么有活力和精力充沛。

I think that might be because — I’d be curious if you’d agree that it’s because, for most tasks, doing gleans far more information than thinking.

我认为这可能是因为 —— 如果你同意这是因为，对于大多数任务来说，做比思考收集到的信息多得多，我很好奇。

There are some people who really are thirsty to do things and run things and create and make a difference, and those people are trapped in academia because a lot of them can’t see a way of supporting themselves doing a different thing.

有些人确实渴望做事、经营事情、创造和做出改变，而这些人被困在学术界，因为他们中的很多人看不到支持自己做不同事情的方法。

If you can set up structures where they have that support, you can find a lot of people who can become 50, 100X more productive by simply not just being academics all the time.

如果你能建立一个能够获得支持的结构，你会发现很多人只要不只是一直做学者，就能将工作效率提高 50 倍、100 倍。

You’re exhibit whatever — I don’t know what letter — but that’s you.

你展示出任何东西 —— 我不知道什么字母 —— 但那就是你。

You run Emergent Ventures India, and you identify people in India and give them support and get them going with their own start-ups and projects and intellectual endeavors.

你经营 Emergent Ventures India，在印度寻找人才并给予他们支持，让他们继续自己的初创企业、项目和智力活动。

That’s phenomenally way more productive.

这显着提高了生产力。

Are you smarter now than then?

你现在比以前聪明吗？

Well, probably somewhat, but that’s not the difference.

嗯，可能有点，但这不是区别。

The difference is this ability to see there’s a difference you can make and really want to do it and be in a structure that allows that to happen.

不同之处在于，你有能力看到你可以做出改变，并且真正想要做到这一点，并且处于一个允许这种情况发生的结构中。

That’s just an example of how the market for talent can be way more efficient, not by 2X but by 100X or more in many, many cases.

这只是人才市场如何提高效率的一个例子，在很多情况下不是提高 2 倍，而是提高 100 倍甚至更多。

It’s pointless in a way, but you can’t help but do it, and it’s some form of practicing just to always be on and processing and thinking through “how is this working and why?” I find that useful, but I know it’s weird.

在某种程度上，这是毫无意义的，但你会情不自禁地这样做，这是某种形式的练习，只是为了始终保持在状态、处理和思考“这是如何运作的以及为什么？”我觉得这很有用，但我知道这很奇怪。

Does it make a person happy?

它能让一个人快乐吗？

I’m not unhappy doing it.

我这样做并不感到不高兴。

It’s part of being obsessive.

这是痴迷的一部分。

I’d say it’s going well.

我想说进展顺利。

I appreciate the questions are very colorful, better than some of the questions we’ve gotten.

我很欣赏这些问题非常丰富多彩，比我们收到的一些问题更好。

I think no one has, to date, asked us how to screen for human Martian settlers.

我想迄今为止，还没有人问过我们如何筛选人类火星定居者。

I’ve been enjoying it.

我一直很享受。

What about you?

你呢？

On immigration and talent

关于移民和人才

But immigrant parents often are in difficult positions.

但移民父母往往处境艰难。

They come without networks.

他们没有网络。

They’re starting all over.

他们一切都从头开始。

Immigration can be much harder for men than women.

移民对男性来说比女性要困难得多。

There’s literature on this.

有这方面的文献。

If the woman is raising children, her position in the family more or less remains intact, but the man is starting all over again and very likely is under-placed in some significant way and spends quite a few years just working to achieve a decent middle-class income.

如果女人正在抚养孩子，她在家庭中的地位或多或少保持不变，但男人却从头再来，很可能在某些方面处于弱势，需要花费好几年的时间工作才能获得体面的中产阶级收入。

But if you see persistence within families, whether you think it’s genetic or upbringing or social, cultural, whatever, but I strongly believe in persistence in families.

但如果你看到家庭内部的坚持，无论你认为这是遗传、教养、社会、文化等等，但我坚信家庭的坚持。

The children of the immigrants will start off usually in decent enough schools, often in the suburbs — could be Northern Virginia, could be Ontario.

移民的孩子通常会在足够好的学校开始学习，通常在郊区——可能是北弗吉尼亚州，也可能是安大略省。

They’ll develop, normally, North American networks.

通常，他们将开发北美网络。

They’ll be completely fluent in English in a very useful way, and it can just be full speed ahead.

他们将以一种非常有用的方式完全流利地讲英语，而且可以全速前进。

They’re still not taking prosperity for granted.

他们仍然没有认为繁荣是理所当然的。

Their parents often are kicking their butt, like “You’ve got to succeed,” which is useful, though not always happiness-inducing.

他们的父母经常批评他们，比如“你必须成功”，这很有用，但并不总是能带来快乐。

It’s just a general group of people I’m extremely bullish upon.

这只是我非常看好的一群人。

I think there are a lot of good reasons — both intuitively, but that also show up in plenty of actual data and research studies — why we should be bullish on immigrants and try as a nation to take in more immigrants than what we’re doing right now.

我认为有很多充分的理由 ——既直观，也体现在大量的实际数据和研究中 ——为什么我们应该看好移民，并作为一个国家尝试接纳比现在更多的移民。

On the Indian diaspora

关于印度侨民

It’s the next generation — American born from Indian families — who end up being very, very entrepreneurial.

这是下一代 ——“出生于印度家庭的美国人”——最终变得非常非常有创业精神。

Is that a good way of thinking about all children of immigrants?

这是思考所有移民儿童的好方法吗？

Or there’s something funky going on with the Indian immigrants?

还是印度移民发生了一些奇怪的事情？

Mostly children of immigrants just aren’t that risk-taking?

大多数移民的孩子都不愿意冒险吗？

But these are people that come to the United States usually not out of sheer desperation to have some basic form of economic success, because they were somewhat suppressed in their origin country, but more people in search of some spiritual belonging that they believe they found in whatever technology they’re working on.

但这些人来到美国通常并不是纯粹出于对获得某种基本形式的经济成功的渴望，因为他们在原籍国受到了某种程度的压制，而是更多的人寻求某种精神归属，他们相信他们在所从事的技术中找到了这种归属。

They look much more like religious migrants, I think, than your typical immigrant: “I’m trying to make it.”

我认为，他们看起来更像宗教移民，而不是典型的移民：“我正在努力做到这一点。”

Founders, at least, that I meet that come out to San Francisco — some of them actually are American, just immigrating from Iowa to SF.

至少，我遇到的来自旧金山的创始人——其中一些实际上是美国人，只是从爱荷华州移民到旧金山。

Obviously, many of them international, too.

显然，其中许多人也是国际性的。

The best ones are not necessarily that worried about making a buck tomorrow.

最好的人不一定担心明天赚钱。

They’re technical, they found an interesting scene, and they want to belong.

他们是技术人员，他们发现了一个有趣的场景，并且他们想要归属。

I think it’s actually quite different from the immigrant persona of, “We took our whole family to the US.

我认为这实际上与“我们把全家带到美国”的移民形象完全不同。

We have two screaming, crying babies, and we’re just trying to survive.” I think those people, for very obvious reasons, are very risk-averse.

我们有两个尖叫、哭泣的婴儿，我们只是想活下去。”我认为这些人出于非常明显的原因非常厌恶风险。

I think part of talent is to realize when you hit these mother lodes, and then to figure out, “Well, we’re just going to try to do a lot here, as much as we possibly can.” Investing in potential mathematicians in Hungarian high schools in 1916 was a really good thing to do.

我认为天赋的一部分是当你触及这些母矿脉时意识到，然后弄清楚，“好吧，我们只是要尝试在这里做很多事情，尽我们所能。” 1916 年，对匈牙利高中的潜在数学家进行投资确实是一件好事。

You don’t even have to be that good at picking talent.

你甚至不必那么擅长挑选人才。

Today, for whatever reason, I do think it’s India, possibly South Asia more broadly.

今天，无论出于何种原因，我确实认为是印度，更广泛地说可能是南亚。

I see the potential for parts of Nigeria joining that club.

我看到尼日利亚部分地区加入该俱乐部的潜力。

It’s further away, maybe still contingent.

距离更远，也许仍然是偶然的。

But for whatever reason, right now, something remarkable is happening.

但无论出于何种原因，现在，一些非凡的事情正在发生。

Combination of level of aspiration, internet is good enough, enough people with enough English fluency, some underlying flexibility of worldview that I think has made Indians relatively well suited, say, to be CEOs in American companies in a way we might not have expected, say, 30 years ago.

愿望水平、互联网足够好、足够多的人、英语足够流利、世界观的一些潜在灵活性相结合，我认为这些因素使印度人相对非常适合，比如说，以一种我们在 30 年前可能没有想到的方式担任美国公司的首席执行官。

I think something extraordinary is going on, and it won’t last forever, and it was not the same, say, 40 years ago.

我认为一些非同寻常的事情正在发生，而且它不会永远持续下去，而且与 40 年前不同。

Maybe it started 20, 30 years ago, but now we’re seeing it all blossom.

也许它始于 20、30 年前，但现在我们看到它全面开花。

To me, it’s very exciting.

对我来说，这非常令人兴奋。

Actually, Tyler and I are in competition usually, and I get far better quality of applications, a higher average and lower variance than the ones that Tyler gets from the rest of the world.

事实上，泰勒和我通常处于竞争状态，与泰勒从世界其他地方获得的申请相比，我得到的申请质量要好得多，平均水平更高，方差更低。

That’s my simple explanation for what’s happening in India.

这就是我对印度正在发生的事情的简单解释。

On screening for resilience

关于复原力筛选

If you ask researchers who really know, and they’re willing to speak honestly with you, like, “What’s the chance that paper is actually true?” you’ll get answers like 20 percent, 30 percent.

如果你问真正了解情况的研究人员，他们愿意与你诚实地交谈，比如，“这篇论文真正正确的可能性有多大？”你会得到 20%、30% 之类的答案。

You don’t get answers of 50 percent, but we’ve created this veneer or cloak of, “If you do all the right things in terms of process, we’ll all pretend to take this paper seriously.”

你不会得到 50% 的答案，但我们已经创造了这样的假象或外衣：“如果你在流程方面做了所有正确的事情，我们都会假装认真对待这篇论文。”

You’ll get tenure somewhere — maybe not at Harvard or MIT, but at some tier-one research university, and you’ll be given all these bureaucratic duties, and you have to referee a lot of papers and hire other people.

你会在某个地方获得终身教职——也许不是在哈佛大学或麻省理工学院，而是在一些一级研究型大学，你会被赋予所有这些官僚职责，你必须审阅大量论文并雇用其他人。

It’s this self-replicating thing that insulates people from truly failing, but it also means that fewer people than ever before pursue true success.

正是这种自我复制的东西使人们免于真正的失败，但这也意味着追求真正成功的人比以往任何时候都少。

I think it’s an example of gross talent misallocation.

我认为这是人才严重错配的一个例子。

It is a better lifestyle.

这是一种更好的生活方式。

If you become an academic and if you work hard enough and you’re smart enough, you can’t fail.

如果你成为一名学者，如果你足够努力并且足够聪明，你就不会失败。

But we’re doing ourselves a gross disservice.

但我们正在严重伤害自己。

I think a lot of our sciences are badly out of whack for this reason, and they should become more like start-ups again.

我认为，由于这个原因，我们的许多科学领域都严重失调，它们应该再次变得更像初创企业。

But structures tend to ossify, and academia certainly is no exception to that.

但结构往往会僵化，学术界当然也不例外。

I think a lot of the best founders I’ve had the pleasure of working with don’t even really experience setbacks and failure the same way most people do.

我认为我有幸共事过的许多最优秀的创始人甚至没有像大多数人那样真正经历过挫折和失败。

Or the degree of badness of the news — for something to register in their minds as true failure is much higher than it is for most people.

或者，新闻的坏程度——在他们的头脑中被视为真正失败的事情比大多数人要高得多。

A lot of bad news is immediately misinterpreted as great news.

许多坏消息立即被误解为好消息。

“Oh, the market’s down?

“噢，市场下跌了？

Great.

太棒了。

A lot of talent will be fired, and we’ll be able to hire them.” Correction, creative destruction and whatnot.

很多人才将被解雇，而我们将能够雇用他们。”纠正、创造性破坏等等。

I think a lot of that comes out of just a general sense of vigorousness and vitality that I think is somewhat correlated with this sense of ambition, too.

我认为这很大程度上来自于一种普遍的活力和活力感，我认为这也与这种雄心壮志感有关。

I think about that a lot.

我想了很多。

Reflexively, I try to think about how I feel when I interview someone.

我本能地尝试思考采访某人时我的感受。

I imagine, actually, everyone’s doing that.

我想，实际上，每个人都在这样做。

Some awareness to the process is quite helpful, though.

不过，对这个过程的一些了解还是很有帮助的。

I think that type of perseverance .

我认为这种毅力。

.

。

.

。

Look, every single great start-up has had these dark moments of death or near death.

瞧，每一个伟大的初创企业都曾经历过死亡或濒临死亡的黑暗时刻。

Obviously, everyone’s talking about SpaceX famously failed three launches and couldn’t fail the fourth.

显然，每个人都在谈论 SpaceX 因三次发射失败而闻名，第四次发射也不会失败。

Every start-up has that narrative.

每个初创企业都有这样的故事。

You often need someone that’s powered by a deeper reserve currency than dollars in order to see through that.

你通常需要一个拥有比美元更深的储备货币支持的人才能看清这一点。

On the benefits of a messy desk

关于凌乱办公桌的好处

I do think Zoom has created this, although it has reduced the amount of entropy or information you’re getting from someone in an interview.

我确实认为 Zoom 创造了这一点，尽管它减少了你在采访中从某人那里获得的熵或信息量。

I think everyone here can probably attest to the Zoom interview as not as enticing, exciting, revealing or interesting as a real-world interview, but it does reveal other information.

我想在座的每个人都可以证明 Zoom 采访不像现实世界的采访那样诱人、令人兴奋、具有启发性或有趣，但它确实揭示了其他信息。

Net, you’re still getting less, but you’re suddenly getting this new, interesting information in the background.

Net，你得到的信息仍然较少，但你突然在后台得到了这些新的、有趣的信息。

Where they are, the cats wandering around — okay, that’s interesting.

在它们所在的地方，猫在四处游荡 ——好吧，这很有趣。

I don’t know that all of our mental models, built around decades of calibrating on real-world interviews where you don’t get that information, now suddenly have to be readjusted to that.

我不知道我们所有的心理模型都是在几十年来在现实世界的采访中进行校准而建立的，而在现实世界中你无法获得这些信息，现在突然必须对此进行重新调整。

I think it’s a good question.

我认为这是一个好问题。

The desk is a reflection of the conscientiousness, I think, of an individual.

我认为办公桌反映了一个人的责任心。

For some roles, conscientiousness, to the extent it moves at a continuum that pulls down openness, which the big psychometric theories would disagree with you, meaning they would say the Big 5 aspects scale are totally independent of each other.

对于某些角色，尽责性，在某种程度上，它以连续统一体的方式移动，从而降低了开放性，大型心理测量理论可能会不同意你的观点，这意味着他们会说大 5 方面量表是完全相互独立的。

But you do really wonder.

但你确实想知道。

The person who’s hyper conscientious, who really dots every i and crosses every t — it’s exceedingly rare, I think, to find someone that is really, really conscientious and also really open.

一个非常尽职尽责、真正做到每一个“i”、“跨越每一个t”的人——我认为，找到一个真正、真正尽责、也真正开放的人是非常罕见的。

So, I do tend to believe that they affect each other a bit more than we realize.

因此，我确实倾向于相信它们之间的相互影响比我们意识到的要大一些。

I think that can be a revealing thing in either direction.

我认为这在任何一个方向上都可能具有启发性。

I don’t know that you would necessarily want, say, your product designer to have the most organized desk that, to Steve Jobs’ parlance, is also quite empty.

我不知道你是否一定希望你的产品设计师拥有一张最有条理的办公桌，用史蒂夫·乔布斯的话说，这张办公桌也很空。

I don’t know that I would want to see my accountant have an incredibly disorganized desk with all sorts of returns and Post-its and papers flying around.

我不知道我是否希望看到我的会计师的办公桌极其杂乱，各种报表、便利贴和文件到处乱飞。

Much depends on the role.

很大程度上取决于角色。

I do know some very successful people with very neat desks, but it rubs me the wrong way.

我确实认识一些非常成功的人，他们的办公桌非常整洁，但这让我很恼火。

I think of the messy desk as quite organized, of course.

当然，我认为凌乱的桌子很有条理。

There’s like, what’s the average quality of organization versus what’s the total amount of organization that went into this event of the desk?

比如说，组织的平均质量是多少，而参加这次办公桌活动的组织总数是多少？

The messy desk is going to have more total organization, almost always, even if the average quality has higher variance.

凌乱的办公桌几乎总是会有更多的整体组织，即使平均质量有更高的差异。

On finding a good mentor

寻找一位好的导师

I find it’s interesting.

我觉得这很有趣。

A lot of people here want the best real-world mentors, but we do have this amazing product that 50 years ago, people could barely dream of, where we have, effectively, an infinite amount of content from the world’s best teachers, investors, mathematicians.

这里的很多人都想要现实世界中最好的导师，但我们确实拥有 50 年前人们几乎无法想象的令人惊叹的产品，我们实际上拥有来自世界上最好的教师、投资者、数学家的无限量内容。

For me, when I was running my business, it was actually very helpful in specific ways, like you learned specific tricks.

对我来说，当我经营我的生意时，它实际上在特定方面非常有帮助，就像你学到了特定的技巧一样。

But also, watching very charismatic leaders talk is definitely a great thing to do the night before you have your all hands.

而且，在你全力以赴的前一天晚上，观看非常有魅力的领导人的演讲绝对是一件很棒的事情。

I think that the amazing thing about the reality we live in today is yes, you can interview literally millions of mentors on YouTube for free, basically anywhere in the world.

我认为我们今天生活的现实的令人惊奇的事情是，你可以在 YouTube 上免费采访数百万导师，基本上在世界任何地方。

I found, for me, that was a huge thing.

我发现，对我来说，这是一件大事。

Silicon Valley in particular — obviously, it’s a very porous place, and people are generally very helpful to each other.

尤其是硅谷——显然，这是一个漏洞百出的地方，人们通常会互相帮助。

You tend to have — I wouldn’t call them mentors, but people who take a step of goodwill.

你往往有 —— 我不会称他们为导师，而是那些迈出善意一步的人。

Based on limited information they have on you, they go out of their way to help you, and someone did the same thing to them.

根据他们掌握的有关您的有限信息，他们会竭尽全力帮助您，而有人对他们做了同样的事情。

In many ways, I wouldn’t be here without someone taking a bet and funding me, and now I’m trying to pay it forward to others.

从很多方面来说，如果没有人下注并资助我，我就不会在这里，而现在我正在努力将其回报给其他人。

Those things come into your lap.

这些东西来到你的腿上。

I do worry a little bit when I meet people who are overtly searching for mentors for the sake of finding mentors.

当我遇到那些为了寻找导师而公然寻找导师的人时，我确实有点担心。

I’m wondering, whatever you’re looking for, I don’t think that’s quite going to satisfy it.

我想知道，无论你在寻找什么，我认为这都不能满足你的需求。

To the extent one wants just good mental models of like, what does a really good salesperson look like, or what does a really good math professor look like?

在某种程度上，人们只想要良好的心智模型，一个真正优秀的销售人员是什么样子，或者一个真正优秀的数学教授是什么样子？

That’s available online in unlimited fashion.

这可以在网上以无限的方式获得。

Tyler, I don’t know if you have a different view, but that’s fine.

泰勒，我不知道你是否有不同的看法，但这没关系。

For it to happen organically, figure out what your strengths are, and let those blossom, and then just be out there.

为了让它有机地发生，弄清楚你的优势是什么，让它们发挥出来，然后就在那里。

But again, don’t try to force the mentoring thing too much because potential mentors can sniff that out, and that, to them, is very boring.

但同样，不要试图过多地强迫指导，因为潜在的导师可以嗅出这一点，而这对他们来说非常无聊。

Someone who wants to be mentored is the most boring thing you can imagine.

想要接受指导的人是你能想象到的最无聊的事情。

Someone who wants to learn something can be very interesting, however.

然而，想要学习某些东西的人可能会非常有趣。

On mentorship and generosity

关于指导和慷慨

Q&A

问答

There are plenty of identical twins with very different outcomes.

有很多同卵双胞胎的结果却截然不同。

There are quite a few of them while they’re both law partners in Cincinnati, but at the highest levels, those very small differences — it’s like a multiplicative model.

他们中的人数不少，虽然他们都是辛辛那提的法律合伙人，但在最高级别，这些非常小的差异  - 就像一个乘法模型。

You need to have eight or nine very definite things go to an A or A+ level for you, and it might happen for you and not for your identical twin.

你需要有八九个非常明确的事情才能达到 A 或 A+ 级别，这可能会发生在你身上，而不是你的同卵双胞胎身上。

So, I think, at the highest levels of achievement, identical twins do not contain a lot of information, and they would not be that useful in talent search.

所以，我认为，在最高成就水平上，同卵双胞胎并不包含很多信息，它们在人才搜寻方面不会那么有用。

I wouldn’t go around like, “Oh, did someone clone Bill Gates?” That’s sort of like an identical twin.

我不会到处问，“哦，有人克隆了比尔·盖茨吗？”这有点像同卵双胞胎。

Or “It’s the eight-year-old who was the clone Bill Gates.

或者“这个八岁的孩子是比尔·盖茨的克隆人。

I want to support that person with some VC money.” It’s still a better than average bet, obviously, but that would not be my obsession.

我想用一些风险投资资金来支持那个人。”显然，这仍然是一个比平均水平更好的赌注，但这不会是我的痴迷。

Absolutely not.

绝对不是。

There’s some weird confluence of environment and genes and circumstance that maybe you know it when you see it.

环境、基因和环境有一些奇怪的融合，也许当你看到它时你就知道了。

But ex ante, trying to predict that by looking at any one of the factors, I don’t think you’ll get very far.

但事前，试图通过考虑任何一个因素来预测，我认为你不会走得太远。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Is energy plastic, Tyler?

泰勒，能源是塑料吗？

I don’t know if you’d have a different view.

不知道你是否有不同的看法。

I think it’s an awesome question, a bit of a nature-nurture biology-esque question.

我认为这是一个很棒的问题，有点像先天-后天的生物学问题。

There is some basic mitochondrial factory thing going on that seems more efficient in some people than others.

线粒体工厂的一些基本功能在某些人身上似乎比其他人更有效。

I think that just leads to more hours in the day of work, more chances taken.

我认为这只会带来更多的工作时间，更多的机会。

If you assume the batting average is roughly even, just a higher chance of home run.

如果你假设击球率大致相等，那么全垒打的机会就会更高。

But when you read the interviews of Paul McCartney, or the documentary, he’s just at it.

但当你阅读保罗·麦卡特尼的采访或纪录片时，你会发现他就是这么做的。

George Harrison is like, “Again?

乔治·哈里森说：“再来一次？

We have to go again?

我们还得再去一次吗？

It’s 10:00 p.m.

现在是晚上 10:00。

Again?” There are thousands of those stories — Steve Jobs, whatnot — of people that are more shots on goal.

再来一次？这样的故事有数以千计——“史蒂夫·乔布斯之类的”——关于那些射门次数更多的人。

I think that must compound.

我认为这必须复合。

Tyler, do you think energy’s plastic?

泰勒，你认为能源是可塑的吗？

The way I am — my sense is I was that way at three or four, at age two.

我就是这样的——我的感觉是我三四岁、两岁时就是这样。

I don’t remember.

我不记得了。

My mother always told me that — always antsy, wanting the next book, something.

我妈妈总是告诉我， ——总是焦躁不安，想要下一本书，什么东西。

I just don’t think it’s something I taught myself.

我只是不认为这是我自学的东西。

You can, once you’re that way, learn how to use your environment to make yourself better at that and get the gene’s environment interaction going.

一旦你做到了这一点，你就可以学习如何利用你的环境来让自己在这方面做得更好，并让基因与环境的相互作用继续下去。

That is very much something you learn, rather than something you were born with — how to multiply your interaction effects.

这在很大程度上是你学习的东西，而不是你与生俱来的东西—— 如何倍增你的互动效果。

But that core something or other — Paul McCartney was composing songs at age 14.

但那个核心的东西——保罗·麦卡特尼 (Paul McCartney) 在 14 岁时就开始创作歌曲。

He’s finishing up a tour now.

他现在正在结束巡演。

He’s 80.

他80岁了。

He doesn’t need the money.

他不需要钱。

Puts out an album every two years.

每两年出一张专辑。

Takes on massive projects: art, books, everything.

承担大型项目：艺术、书籍、一切。

Incredible.

极好的。

You just read biographies of Paul — it just clearly seems he was born with it.

你刚刚读过保罗的传记——很明显，他似乎生来就有这种能力。

I live right outside of Washington, DC.

我住在华盛顿特区郊外。

I know, or have met, really very large numbers of people in politics: chiefs of staff, military agencies, people on the board of the Fed.

我认识或见过很多政界人士：参谋长、军事机构、美联储董事会成员。

I think our talent in those slots is pretty good.

我认为我们在这些方面的天赋非常好。

Not perfect, but that is not our national problem, in my opinion, at all.

虽然不完美，但在我看来，这根本不是我们国家的问题。

I can name plenty of individual politicians who I think are just absolute train wrecks, but again, I would think in terms of the main problem being the voter.

我可以说出很多政客的名字，我认为他们绝对是火车残骸，但我再次认为主要问题是选民。

I think our political system does better at bringing in some talent than you would think.

我认为我们的政治制度在引进人才方面比你想象的要好。

It’s striking to me, if you live in the DC area, how many families, almost every family — there’s some notion of doing national service that I actually find strikingly absent in the Bay Area.

让我惊讶的是，如果你住在华盛顿地区，有多少个家庭，几乎每个家庭 —— 有一些国民服务的概念，而我实际上发现湾区完全不存在这种概念。

Maybe in the whole US, it’s weakest here and strongest where I live, but that sense of obligation to national service — it actually works, I think.

也许在整个美国，这种意识在这里是最弱的，而在我居住的地方是最强的，但这种服兵役的义务感 ——我认为它实际上是有效的。

US government still has done a whole bunch of things properly.

美国政府还是做了很多正确的事情。

We did Operation Warp Speed.

我们进行了曲速行动。

That would be one example.

这就是一个例子。

We had a lot of talent there.

我们那里有很多人才。

The economist heading it, Michael Kremer, Nobel laureate, one of the very best economists alive on planet Earth, and he was running that side of Operation Warp Speed.

领导该项目的经济学家是诺贝尔奖获得者迈克尔·克雷默（Michael Kremer），他是地球上最优秀的经济学家之一，他负责管理“曲速行动”。

Well, how’d that happen?

嗯，这是怎么发生的？

We’re doing something right.

我们正在做正确的事情。

But at the end of the day, the voting inputs — I don’t know.

但最终，投票结果 —— 我不知道。

I really do worry.

我确实很担心。

But Daniel?

但是丹尼尔？

If you’re trying too hard to measure your marginal product, you’ll maybe end up conforming too much or doing too many things that are measurable.

如果你太努力地衡量你的边际产品，你最终可能会遵循太多，或者做太多可衡量的事情。

At the margin, maybe the way to have an impact is to not worry too much about measuring your success.

在边际上，也许产生影响的方法就是不要太担心衡量你的成功。

I don’t think that answer can work for everyone, but it’s how I’ve approached the problem.

我认为这个答案并不适用于所有人，但这就是我解决问题的方式。

I feel without measuring it that it’s worked pretty well for me.

无需衡量，我就觉得它对我来说效果很好。

That’s the only thing I can pinpoint, a moment when I feel like something is changing here.

这是我唯一能指出的事情，就是我感觉这里正在发生变化的那一刻。

I don’t think I’m responsible for it.

我不认为我对此负责。

I think it would’ve happened anyway.

我想无论如何这都会发生。

Someone else would’ve given them funding or believed in them, but pretty much almost all of them say that.

其他人会给他们资金或相信他们，但几乎所有人都这么说。

That tells you more about how broken things are in India than about me.

这更能告诉你印度的事情有多么破碎，而不是我。

I can think of that as a tangible thing where my faith in someone is somehow such a big signal to them that they have a — even if it’s marginally higher — self-belief.

我可以认为这是一个有形的事情，我对某人的信任在某种程度上对他们来说是一个很大的信号，他们有一个“——”即使稍微高一点“——”自信。

It’s worth it.

这是值得的。

I’m curious, what components of that Bat-Signal do you think are the most effective?

我很好奇，您认为蝙蝠信号的哪些组成部分最有效？

People come to you and they say, “Oh man, I really love this about your portfolio.

人们来找你，他们说：“天哪，我真的很喜欢你的投资组合。

I really love this about Pioneer.”

我真的很喜欢先锋公司的这一点。”

Don’t think too hard about your Bat-Signals, maybe.

也许不要太想你的蝙蝠信号。

Now, if they’re bad to begin with, and you don’t think too hard, I guess they’ll stay bad.

现在，如果它们一开始就很糟糕，而且你不认真思考，我想它们会一直很糟糕。

But that’s great because then, more people like my Bat-Signal, and maybe they should be coming to me.

但这很棒，因为那时会有更多人喜欢我的蝙蝠信号，也许他们应该来找我。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I try not to overthink the Bat-Signal, and if I write a blog post like I was working on earlier today, what’s the difference in the 18th-century Scottish Enlightenment and Irish Enlightenment?

我尽量不要过度思考蝙蝠信号，如果我像今天早些时候写的那样写一篇博客文章，那么 18 世纪的苏格兰启蒙运动和爱尔兰启蒙运动有什么区别？

That makes no sense as a topic.

这作为一个话题毫无意义。

Maybe someone in Ireland will read it, like, “Okay.” But there’s no way you could come up with an argument that that’s what I should be sending out as my Bat-Signal.

也许爱尔兰的某个人会读到它，就像，“好吧。”但你不可能提出一个论点，认为这就是我应该发出的蝙蝠信号。

But that will be the Bat-Signal, and I actually think it’s fine.

但这将是蝙蝠信号，我实际上认为这很好。

There’s a second step of it.

还有第二步。

Basically, okay, imagine this is Gmail.

基本上，好吧，想象一下这是 Gmail。

You’ve got rid of the spam, but now you’ve got to pick what in the inbox is important.

您已经清除了垃圾邮件，但现在您必须选择收件箱中重要的内容。

That’s a much harder task.

这是一项更加艰巨的任务。

I’m sure it can be done in software, but I think it’s a bit more nuanced.

我确信这可以用软件来完成，但我认为这有点微妙。

The really tricky thing — in venture, in particular — is regressing on success is pretty hard, not just because the data points are pretty sparse, like, what great founders look like — maybe you have 10,000, which is not that helpful.

真正棘手的事情 ——尤其是在风险投资中—— 成功的回归是相当困难的，不仅仅是因为数据点非常稀疏，比如，伟大的创始人是什么样子 —— 也许你有 10,000 个，这没有多大帮助。

Machine learning skill.

机器学习技能。

But also, because everything changes all the time.

而且，因为一切都在不断变化。

The psychometric makeup of a great founder in, say, 2015, SaaS era, is someone like Fred Luddy, who started ServiceNow, who’s basically a sales machine, started a sales empire.

比如说，在 2015 年 SaaS 时代，一位伟大创始人的心理特征就是像 Fred Luddy 这样的人，他创立了 ServiceNow，而 ServiceNow 基本上就是一台销售机器，创建了一个销售帝国。

It’s very different from who’s going to be a very good founder, say, working on transformer models, who’s going to be much more like Woz than Steve .

这与那些将成为一名非常优秀的创始人的人非常不同，比如说，从事变压器模型工作的人，他将更像沃兹而不是史蒂夫。

Everything is shifting constantly, so it’s tricky.

一切都在不断变化，所以很棘手。

I assume a lot of automation can be done for that first step.

我认为第一步可以完成很多自动化工作。

I think, for the second step, you could.

我认为，对于第二步，你可以。

But the final thing I’d say is, in venture, in particular, you are rewarded so aggressively for making the right calls that you will be able to always afford the salary for people to review it.

但我要说的最后一件事是，特别是在风险投资领域，你会因为做出正确的决定而获得如此丰厚的回报，以至于你将始终能够负担得起人们审查它的薪水。

You’re penalized, of course, very aggressively by errors of omission, not commission.

当然，你会因为疏忽错误而不是行为错误而受到非常严厉的惩罚。

I think you’re going to always end up with an economic model where you can have people.

我认为你最终总会得到一个可以拥有人才的经济模式。

This is obviously very different if you’re like McDonald’s and whatnot, and you’re trying to figure out, “Okay, who’s going to be able to flip burgers a year in?” But I don’t know enough about that field to apply it there.

如果你像麦当劳之类的，并且你想弄清楚，“好吧，谁能够在一年内翻转汉堡？”，这显然是非常不同的。但我对该领域的了解还不够，无法应用到那里。

Photo credit: Drew Bird Photo

照片来源：德鲁·伯德照片