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Steven Pinker on Language, Reason, and the Future of Violence (Ep. 14 - Live at Mason)

史蒂文·平克 (Steven Pinker) 谈语言、理性和暴力的未来(第 14 集 - 梅森现场直播)
2016-11-02 | 官方页面 YouTube
TYLER COWEN

Steven Pinker has stridden into the room, and requires no further introduction.

史蒂文·平克已大步走进房间,无需进一步介绍。

On the economics of irregular verbs

不规则动词的经济学

COWEN

I’ve looked at a lot of Steven’s work again lately, and I’d like to start with your early work on irregular verbs.

我最近又看了史蒂文的很多著作,我想从您早期关于不规则动词的著作开始。

It’s striking to me how much in this work you think like an economist.

让我惊讶的是,你在这项工作中的思考方式多么像经济学家。

Some verbs are regular — you conjugate them with an -ed — others are irregular.

有些动词是规则的 —— 你可以将它们与-ed 结合起来—— 其他动词是不规则的。

You don’t say getted.

你不说得到。

You say got.

你说得到了。

How computationally efficient is that process?

该过程的计算效率如何?

STEVEN PINKER

I think it taps two of the mechanisms that make intelligence possible.

我认为它利用了使智能成为可能的两种机制。

Why would I spend a good chunk of my career studying the minutiae of irregular verbs?

为什么我要花大量的职业生涯来研究不规则动词的细节?

I do love language.

我确实喜欢语言。

I love linguistic detail for its own sake, but I chose that topic because I thought it shed light on bigger issues of cognitive organization.

我喜欢语言细节本身,但我选择这个主题是因为我认为它揭示了认知组织的更大问题。

Why do we have 165 or so quirky exceptions like stride, strode; come, came; sing, sang; go, went; and so on?

为什么我们有大约 165 个奇怪的异常,比如 stride, strode;来了,来了;唱歌,唱歌;走,去;等等?

It just seems that there could be no rhyme or reason behind hit.

似乎命中背后没有任何韵律或理由。

I think it’s just a consequence of the fact that we memorize words, and that’s one of the two mechanisms behind language.

我认为这只是我们记忆单词这一事实的结果,而这是语言背后的两种机制之一。

We store by brute force, rote memory, arbitrary pairings between a sound and a meaning.

我们通过暴力、死记硬背、声音和含义之间的任意配对来存储。

The word duck doesn’t look like a duck or walk like a duck or quack like a duck, but I can use it to get you to think the thought of a duck because we and everyone in this room has memorized a pairing between that sound and that meaning.

鸭子这个词看起来不像鸭子,走路不像鸭子,也不像鸭子嘎嘎叫,但我可以用它让你想到鸭子,因为我们和这个房间里的每个人都记住了这个声音和那个含义之间的配对。

We don’t just blurt out words but we also combine them into phrases and sentences using rules that allow you to predict theme or compute the meaning of a combination from the meaning of the parts and the way that they are arranged.

我们不仅会脱口而出单词,还会使用规则将它们组合成短语和句子,这些规则允许您根据各部分的含义及其排列方式来预测主题或计算组合的含义。

Those are the two mechanisms that make language possible.

这些是使语言成为可能的两种机制。

But there are some kinds of meanings where they can compete over which system expresses a particular concept.

但在某些意义上,它们可以竞争哪个系统表达特定的概念。

In the case of regularity or irregularity, we have two different ways of conveying the concept “an action that took place in the past,” or in the case of plurals like mouse, mice and rat, rats, two ways of talking about more than one thing.

在规律性或不规则性的情况下,我们有两种不同的方式来表达“过去发生的动作”的概念,或者在复数的情况下,例如 mouse,mice 和rat,rats,有两种方式谈论不止一件事。

We can memorize a more or less independent word to convey the idea like struck or sang, or we can apply an algorithm to say something in the past tense — add -ed to the end — and then we get walk, walked.

我们可以记住一个或多或少独立的单词来表达像“strike”或“sang”这样的想法,或者我们可以应用一种算法来用过去时态来表达某些内容 — 在末尾添加-ed — 然后我们就可以走,走。

Because of the peculiarities of the history of a language, you can have that labor divided between the rule system — the algorithmic system — and the memory system, and it’s the tension between those two systems that gives rise to a lot of the quirkiness of language, including English irregular verbs.

由于语言历史的特殊性,你可以在规则系统 —算法系统 — 和记忆系统之间分配工作,正是这两个系统之间的紧张关系导致了语言的许多怪异之处,包括英语不规则动词。

COWEN

When you did this — this was one of the first things to make you famous — did you know in the back of your mind this was a kind of Hayekian argument?

当你这样做时——“这是让你出名的第一件事情之一”——你是否知道在你的内心深处这是一种哈耶克式的论证?

Because it seems to me the common verbs, that we use a lot, those go irregular, and it’s easy to remember them because you use them all the time.

因为在我看来,我们经常使用的常见动词,它们是不规则的,而且很容易记住它们,因为你一直在使用它们。

But the regular verbs are ones that you don’t use so often and thus, again, you’re economizing on information in this decentralized way.

但常规动词是您不经常使用的动词,因此,您再次以这种分散的方式节省信息。

PINKER

I don’t know how well that analysis would work across a range of zones of irregularity.

我不知道这种分析在一系列不规则区域中的效果如何。

It is certainly true that irregular verbs tend to be common, which is the bane of the language learner.

不规则动词确实很常见,这是语言学习者的祸根。

You learn Spanish or French and all of the words that you use all the time, you’ve got to memorize the conjugations.

你学习西班牙语或法语以及你一直使用的所有单词,你必须记住它们的词形变化。

The reason for that is — I might even invoke Darwin more than Hayek — namely that in the generation-to-generation transmission process of an irregular verb, an irregular verb has to be memorized because, by definition, there is no rule behind it.

原因是:“我什至可能更多地援引达尔文而不是哈耶克”,即在不规则动词的代代相传过程中,不规则动词必须被记住,因为根据定义,它背后没有规则。

The only way you know that the past tense of come is came is that you hear everyone else use came.

你知道 come 的过去式是 come 的唯一方法是你听到其他人都使用 come。

Since memory thrives on frequency — the more often you hear something, the better you remember it — if any verb declines in frequency (and verbs become more or less fashionable for all kinds of reasons), then you could have a generation that never successfully masters it.

由于记忆力随着频率的增加而增强——“你听到某件事的次数越多,你就记住它越好”——如果任何动词的频率下降(并且动词由于各种原因变得或多或少变得流行),那么你的一代人可能永远无法成功掌握它。

They’ll default to the all-purpose add -ed rule, and then the verb will go from irregular to regular for that generation and all subsequent generations.

他们将默认使用通用的 add -ed 规则,然后该代以及所有后续代的动词将从不规则变为规则。

You’ve got an erosion of the stock of irregular verbs as they get filtered through the minds of children memorizing them, where it’s the less-frequent ones that tend to fall out of the language.

当不规则动词在孩子们记忆中被过滤时,它们的储备就会受到侵蚀,而那些不太常见的动词往往会从语言中消失。

COWEN

So dreamt becomes dreamed, for instance?

例如,梦想变成了梦想?

PINKER

Dreamt becomes dreamed.

梦想变成梦想。

COWEN

But dreamt is prettier.

但梦想更美好。

PINKER

It is prettier, and that’s one of the reasons that irregular verbs do stay in the language.

它更漂亮,这就是不规则动词保留在该语言中的原因之一。

One of the reasons that often lyricists and poets and novelists will prefer the irregular to the regular when there’s a choice — strided versus strode, strove versus strived, hove versus heaved — is that they’re good words.

当有选择时,抒情诗人、诗人和小说家往往更喜欢不规则的而不是规则的,原因之一是它们是好词。

They actually fit the phonological template for a standard word in the language, the kind of sound that you would use for a nickname or a common word.

它们实际上符合该语言中标准单词的语音模板,即您用于昵称或常用单词的声音类型。

They are more euphonious because they aren’t assembled in a kludgy way from the verb stem and this bit of detritus hanging on the end, this -ed, this suffix, which is serviceable — it allows you to convey a message — but it makes the sound of the word itself a bit clunky.

它们听起来更悦耳,因为它们不是以一种笨拙的方式从动词词干组装起来的,也没有挂在末尾的一点碎屑,这个-ed,这个后缀,这是有用的 ——“它可以让你传达一个信息”—— 但它让这个词本身的声音有点笨拙。

There are almost unpronounceable regular words like sixths or edited where, because you’re sticking an extra bit on the end of a word, you’re actually messing up the nice contour of a standard word in the language.

有一些几乎无法发音的常规单词,例如“sixs”或“edited where”,因为您在单词末尾添加了额外的位,所以实际上弄乱了该语言中标准单词的优美轮廓。

That’s another one of the tensions that over the course of the history of a language will shape the balance of regular and irregular forms.

这是语言历史进程中形成规则形式和不规则形式平衡的另一种张力。

That is Hayekian in the sense that no one planned the language to be optimal in satisfying one criterion.

这是哈耶克式的,因为没有人计划语言在满足某一标准方面是最佳的。

There are tradeoffs.

有一些权衡。

There are multiple tugs, pushes, and pulls.

有多种拖、推、拉动作。

As millions of speakers make little adjustments, as they use the language, as kids learn the language, the language itself spontaneously evolves with some balance.

当数以百万计的说话者几乎没有做出任何调整时,当他们使用语言时,当孩子们学习语言时,语言本身会自发地以某种平衡的方式发展。

COWEN

Let me now put on my economist’s hat and ask you about this.

现在让我戴上经济学家的帽子来问你这个问题。

As you know, in George Orwell’s 1984, the Party bans all irregular verbs.

如你所知,在乔治·奥威尔的《1984》中,党禁止所有不规则动词。

It’s a kind of excess regulation.

这是一种过度监管。

But from a social point of view, are there too many or too few irregular verbs in English?

但从社会的角度来看,英语中的不规则动词是过多还是过少呢?

PINKER

I like the irregular verbs.

我喜欢不规则动词。

I’d like to see more of them.

我想看到更多。

PINKER

It is sad when we lose them.

当我们失去他们时,我们会感到悲伤。

Occasionally, a new one gets a toehold in the language.

有时,新人会在该语言中站稳脚跟。

Snuck, for example, is about 120 years old.

例如,斯努克大约有 120 岁。

It came in on the analogy of dig, dug; and stink, stunk; and sing, sang, sung; and strike, struck.

它是用挖掘、挖掘的类比而来的。臭气熏天;唱歌,唱歌,唱歌;罢工,罢工。

What will protect a verb against erosion when it becomes too uncommon is similarity to other verbs.

当一个动词变得太不常见时,能够保护它免受侵蚀的是与其他动词的相似性。

It’s another property of human memory.

这是人类记忆的另一个属性。

One property of human memory is: you hear things a lot, they stick in memory better.

人类记忆的一个特性是:你听到的东西越多,它们就越容易记住。

Another one is: if it’s similar to other things that are well memorized, it can parasitize the memory strength of something nearby in phonological space.

另一种是:如果它与其他记忆良好的事物相似,它可以在语音空间中寄生附近事物的记忆强度。

Occasionally, there will be analogies.

偶尔也会有类比。

People will coin new verbs, sometimes in a jocular way.

人们会创造新的动词,有时是以一种幽默的方式。

You’re invited to a party: “Spice are welcome,” instead of spouses.

你被邀请参加一个聚会:“欢迎香料”,而不是配偶。

It’s a little bit jocular.

这有点搞笑。

Sometimes these things can catch on, and that was the case for snuck, where originally it was considered kind of cutesy — like spice as the plural of spouse.

有时这些东西会流行起来,snuck 就是这种情况,最初它被认为是一种可爱的东西——就像配偶复数形式的香料一样。

In fact, people who are older than about 70 or 75 still think that it’s slang, whereas people younger don’t see what the fuss is about.

事实上,70 或 75 岁以上的人仍然认为这是俚语,而年轻人则不明白有什么大惊小怪的。

COWEN

Are there irregular verbs you’re afraid to use?

您是否害怕使用不规则动词?

Because I have this problem.

因为我有这个问题。

Think of the word abide.

想想“遵守”这个词。

I’m perfectly happy to say abide, but the past tense, abode, is thought of as a noun, a place —

我非常高兴地说“abide”,但过去时“abode”被认为是一个名词、一个地方——

PINKER

Yes, right.

是的,没错。

COWEN

Then there’s abidden, and then there’s the noun, abidance, and I won’t go near any of those.

然后是 abidden,然后是名词 abidance,我不会接近其中任何一个。

Every now and then, you’ll be in a sense where the notion of abide comes up, and you’ll just stick with the present tense and do whatever circumlocution you need to avoid having to make these other irregular verb commitments.

时不时地,你会在某种意义上出现“遵守”的概念,你只会坚持使用现在时,并做任何你需要的迂回说法,以避免做出这些其他不规则动词的承诺。

Or do you just go ahead and say stridden?

或者你只是继续说“跨步”?

“Steven Pinker has stridden into the room”?

“史蒂文·平克已经走进房间”?

PINKER

Yes, right.

是的,没错。

Abode has not been in common usage for a few centuries so I mean .

我的意思是,住宅已经有几个世纪没有被普遍使用了。

.

。

.

。

PINKER

That’s one of those that dropped out, like chid as the past tense of chide, for example.

这是那些被淘汰的人之一,例如,chid 是 chide 的过去时。

COWEN

Chidden, right?

奇登,对吗?

PINKER

Yes, chidden, or holp as the past tense of help.

是的,chidden 或 holp 是帮助的过去式。

Some of them survive in dialects, in Appalachia, in remote parts of the British Isles; forms that were in use a couple of hundred years ago may have resisted the erosion for reasons that are completely obscure, partly capricious.

其中一些以方言形式存在,分布在阿巴拉契亚、不列颠群岛的偏远地区;几百年前使用的形式可能由于完全模糊且部分反复无常的原因而抵抗了侵蚀。

One distinction that is vanishing that I think is sad is the three-way distinction in verbs like sink, sank, sunk; stink, stank, stunk; shrink, shrank, shrunk; where the shrank and the stank are giving way to their participle forms shrunk and stunk.

我认为令人悲伤的一个正在消失的区别是动词的三向区别,例如“sink”、“senk”、“sunk”;恶臭,恶臭,恶臭;缩小,缩小,缩小;其中“shrink”和“stunk”被它们的分词形式“shrink and stunk”所取代。

COWEN

No shrank and stank.

没有缩水和发臭。

PINKER

No shrank and stank.

没有缩水和发臭。

Admittedly it would have been hard to have a movie called Honey, I Shrank the Kids instead of Honey, I Shrunk the Kids.

诚然,要拍一部名为《亲爱的,我缩小了孩子》而不是《亲爱的,我缩小了孩子》的电影是很困难的。

In my style manual, The Sense of Style, I recommend hanging on to them.

在我的风格手册《风格感》中,我建议坚持使用它们。

I think they’re nice.

我觉得他们很好。

It’s nice to have that three‑way distinction.

能有这种三向区别真是太好了。

English conjugation is already so depauperate, so degenerate, that it’s nice to preserve what distinctions we have.

英语的词形变化已经如此贫乏、如此堕落,保留我们所拥有的区别是件好事。

On Chomsky and universal grammar

论乔姆斯基和普遍语法

COWEN

Moving chronologically through your career, let me ask you a big‑picture question about language.

按照您职业生涯的时间顺序,让我问您一个关于语言的宏观问题。

I come to linguistics very much as an outsider.

我作为一个外行人来到语言学领域。

Noam Chomsky’s idea of a universal grammar, which is somehow built into the structures of the human mind: in its early years there seemed to be a promise of some very definite accounting of what that structure would be.

诺姆·乔姆斯基的普遍语法思想以某种方式内置于人类思维的结构中:在其早期,人们似乎承诺对这种结构进行某种非常明确的解释。

After a while it seemed to collapse into this very general idea of recursion, which to me as an economist seems almost tautological.

一段时间后,它似乎陷入了这种非常普遍的递归概念,对于我作为一名经济学家来说,这几乎是同义反复。

If I came away from this debate and then I read people writing within popular science: “Today language is a number of different capacities brought together.

如果我结束这场辩论,然后我读到人们在科普领域所写的文章:“今天的语言是多种不同能力的结合。

They’re independent and just combined with our ability to divine meaning from others.” Could it be the case that Chomsky’s hypothesis was simply wrong?

它们是独立的,只是与我们从他人那里解读意义的能力结合在一起。”难道乔姆斯基的假设根本就是错误的吗?

2016, I know your books, but what’s your take on that today?

2016 年,我知道你的书,但今天你对此有何看法?

PINKER

It’s not easy to pin down what the hypothesis is, partly because Chomsky himself revises his theory every decade or so, on a principle of Mao’s Continuous Revolution.

确定这个假设是什么并不容易,部分原因是乔姆斯基本人每隔十年左右就会根据毛泽东的连续革命的原则修改他的理论。

Just never let people settle into any kind of comfortable consensus.

只是永远不要让人们达成任何令人舒服的共识。

PINKER

It’s a moving target.

这是一个移动的目标。

Also, as you say, it was neither specified in a precise way nor field‑tested against a dataset of language variation, which I think is unfortunate in terms of ordinary scientific practice.

此外,正如你所说,它既没有以精确的方式指定,也没有针对语言变异的数据集进行现场测试,我认为这对于普通科学实践来说是不幸的。

Linguistics is an eccentric field in some ways partly because it was so polarized by a charismatic figure and his opponents that it didn’t proceed in the ordinary direction of making the theory more precise, more testable.

语言学在某些方面是一个古怪的领域,部分原因是它被一个有魅力的人物和他的对手所两极分化,以至于它没有朝着使理论更精确、更可测试的正常方向发展。

With that caveat in mind, I think there is such a thing as, you can call it “universal grammar” in the following sense: that the child is biased to analyze the speech that he or she hears in particular ways.

考虑到这一点,我认为存在这样一种情况,你可以在以下意义上将其称为“通用语法”:孩子倾向于以特定方式分析他或她听到的言语。

It does not simply record sentences verbatim.

它不只是逐字记录句子。

That’s the memory half of the language system, but the algorithmic or computational or rule‑governed half tries to pull out combinatorial rules from the speech stream.

这是语言系统的记忆部分,但算法或计算或规则管理的一半试图从语音流中提取组合规则。

There are certain kinds of rules and elements that a child is keyed to look for.

孩子需要寻找某些类型的规则和元素。

That set of abilities would be what I would call (if I used the term) universal grammar.

这组能力就是我所说的(如果我使用这个术语的话)通用语法。

There are commonalities across the world’s languages that come from the fact that language is created anew every generation by the minds of the children who construct it out of the data that they get from their parents and peers.

世界上的语言有一些共同点,因为语言是每一代人根据从父母和同龄人那里获得的数据而重新创造的。

On the theory of mind

关于心智理论

COWEN

Let’s turn from language to a closely related topic, theory of mind.

让我们从语言转向一个密切相关的话题:心理理论。

Of course you’ve written a lot on this.

当然,你在这方面写了很多。

We had Jon Haidt for one of these discussions, and he has this notion that in the mind there are these modules.

我们请乔恩·海特 (Jon Haidt) 参加其中一次讨论,他认为头脑中存在这些模块。

They’re almost a bit independent.

他们几乎有点独立。

There’s an “empathy” module or a “being analytic” module.

有一个“同理心”模块或“分析”模块。

A Conversation with Jonathan Haidt

与乔纳森·海特的对话

On morality, politics, disgust, free speech on campus, LSD, antiparsimonialism, and why economists set all the…medium.com

关于道德、政治、厌恶、校园言论自由、LSD、反节俭主义,以及为什么经济学家设定了所有这些……medium.com

If I understand him correctly, in our political discourse different modules take over.

如果我理解正确的话,在我们的政治话语中,不同的模块将占据主导地位。

It’s almost not integrated with the rest of your brain.

它几乎没有与你大脑的其他部分整合。

What’s your take on how unified cognition is?

您对统一认知有何看法?

To what extent, say, are political discourse ruled by independent modules, or is that not how you think about it?

比如说,政治话语在多大程度上是由独立模块统治的,或者你不是这么想的?

PINKER

The metaphor of the module comes from my former colleague Jerry Fodor, a philosopher and psycholinguist.

该模块的比喻来自我的前同事杰里·福多(Jerry Fodor),他是一位哲学家和心理语言学家。

It comes in different versions.

它有不同的版本。

You had Howard Gardner proposing a theory of multiple intelligences.

霍华德·加德纳提出了多元智能理论。

You have evolutionary psychologists proposing the metaphor of the mind as a Swiss Army knife.

进化心理学家提出将心灵比喻为一把瑞士军刀。

Now it’s more like a smartphone with a bunch of different apps.

现在它更像是带有一堆不同应用程序的智能手机。

These can all be opposed to a view of the mind that would have a theory of everything, that there’s just one principle.

这些都可以与一种思想观点相对立,这种思想拥有万有理论,即只有一个原则。

“It’s all Bayesian statistics” or “it’s just the law of operant conditioning.”

“这都是贝叶斯统计”或“这只是操作条件反射定律”。

COWEN

How about all just one big teeming mess but no modules?

如果只是一堆混乱但没有模块怎么样?

PINKER

Modules never quite seemed like the best metaphor.

模块似乎从来都不是最好的比喻。

There is structure or specialization.

有结构或专业化。

I don’t think the mind is spam.

我不认为头脑是垃圾邮件。

I don’t think we just have a homogeneous neural network in the skull.

我不认为我们的头骨中有一个同质的神经网络。

There is some organization.

有一些组织。

The problem with the module metaphor is some of them are snap-in components with very limited channels of communication between them.

模块隐喻的问题在于,其中一些是嵌入式组件,它们之间的通信渠道非常有限。

I think that’s too strong, but I think it is reasonable to say that there are different faculties, to use an old‑fashioned word.

我认为这太过分了,但我认为用一个老式的词来说,有不同的能力是合理的。

To choose a different metaphor, I think it may have been Chomsky who proposed that the mind is like a biological system made out of organs and tissues.

如果选择一个不同的比喻,我认为可能是乔姆斯基提出的,心灵就像一个由器官和组织组成的生物系统。

When I was in high school I was taught, for example, that the blood was an organ.

例如,当我在高中时,我被教导血液是一个器官。

Now the blood, of course, suffuses all of our tissues.

当然,现在血液充满了我们所有的组织。

You can’t draw a dotted line around it.

你不能在它周围画虚线。

It’s not like the rump roast and the flank steak at the supermarket cow display.

它不像超市牛展示区的烤臀肉和侧腹牛排。

Likewise the mind can have a specialization, and structure, and different components, without them literally being independent.

同样,心灵可以有专门化、结构和不同的组成部分,但它们实际上并不是独立的。

I would agree with Jon Haidt that there are different mindsets — there are different faculties, there are different ways in which we can analyze the same set of events — and that a lot of political disagreement consists of what frame of mind — if you want, what module — you use to analyze a particular issue.

我同意乔恩·海特的观点,即有不同的心态 ——“我们有不同的能力,有不同的方式来分析同一组事件”—— 许多政治分歧包括什么心态 —— 如果你愿意,用什么模块 —— 你用来分析特定问题。

You’ve got to acknowledge the complexity, the multiplicity of the mind even if you don’t subscribe to the strict metaphor of modules.

即使你不认同模块的严格隐喻,你也必须承认思想的复杂性和多样性。

COWEN

What evolutionary purpose does a sense of self serve in human beings?

人类的自我意识有什么进化目的?

Could you imagine human beings performing the same actions but being zombies, not saying to themselves, “Hey, I’m Tyler,” or “Hey, I’m Steven Pinker.”

你能想象人类做同样的动作,但他们是僵尸,不会对自己说:“嘿,我是泰勒”或“嘿,我是史蒂文·平克”。

We have this sense of self, however difficult it may be to describe or study scientifically, and that evolved.

无论科学地描述或研究多么困难,我们都有这种自我意识,而且这种自我意识是不断进化的。

You’re a Darwinian.

你是达尔文主义者。

Where does that come from?

这是从哪里来的?

Why is it there?

为什么它在那里?

PINKER

I would distinguish, certainly, the self‑concept, self‑knowledge, from the issue of subjective experience.

当然,我会将自我概念、自我知识与主观经验问题区分开来。

People often use the word consciousness to refer to both of these phenomena, namely self‑consciousness or self‑knowledge on the one hand and subjectivity or the qualitative nature of consciousness qualia, what it is like to feel something or taste something, on the other.

人们经常使用“意识”这个词来指代这两种现象,即一方面是自我意识或自我知识,另一方面是主观性或意识感受质的质性本质,即感觉某物或品尝某物的感觉。

I think those are two different questions.

我认为这是两个不同的问题。

COWEN

I mean the latter.

我的意思是后者。

PINKER

You mean the latter.

你说的是后者。

As opposed to —

相对于——

COWEN

Right.

对。

You can sit up and feel something, taste something, and say, “Hey, I’m Steven Pinker,” and know introspectively that you’re saying it to yourself.

你可以坐起来,感受一些东西,品尝一些东西,然后说,“嘿,我是史蒂文·平克”,然后内省地知道你是在对自己说这句话。

PINKER

You could have subjective experience of redness and sourness and warmth and so on without it including some concept of yourself.

你可能会有红色、酸味、温暖等主观体验,而不包括你自己的一些概念。

Conversely, you could imagine an intelligent system, a robot, say, where there’s no one home, where it monitors its own state, it presents itself in certain ways, and, at least as far as we know, it’s not actually feeling anything.

相反,你可以想象一个智能系统,比如说一个机器人,没有人在家,它监控自己的状态,它以某种方式呈现自己,而且,至少据我们所知,它实际上没有任何感觉。

Of course, we don’t know it and that may be the key.

当然,我们不知道,但这可能是关键。

The philosophical problem of sentience or qualia or (sometimes called) the hard problem of consciousness I think might ultimately be a quirk of our own way of analyzing the world — that is, the mind reflecting on itself is naturally going to be puzzled by some aspects of itself.

我认为,感知或感受性的哲学问题或(有时称为)意识的难题最终可能是我们分析世界的方式的一个怪癖——也就是说,反思自身的心灵自然会对自身的某些方面感到困惑。

We know from neuroscience that there is no aspect of consciousness that does not have some physical correlate.

我们从神经科学中知道,意识的任何方面都与物理相关。

There’s no ESP.

没有ESP。

There’s no life after death.

死后没有生命。

There’s no mysterious action at a distance.

远处不存在神秘的动作。

It’s all information-processing and neurons.

这都是信息处理和神经元。

Why it should feel like something to me to be that network of neurons, I don’t think we have a satisfying answer to.

为什么我觉得神经元网络应该是某种东西,我认为我们没有一个令人满意的答案。

It may not be a scientific puzzle at all.

这可能根本不是一个科学难题。

There are some philosophers who claim that it just isn’t a coherent intellectual question at all, Dan Dennett being the most famous.

有些哲学家声称这根本不是一个连贯的智力问题,其中最著名的是丹·丹尼特。

For some people this is a kind of escape hatch from materialism and a way to bring back some notion of the soul.

对于某些人来说,这是摆脱物质主义的一种出口,也是一种带回灵魂概念的方式。

The problem there is that you’d expect the mind to have some kind of nonmaterial powers, which it does not have.

问题在于,你期望心灵拥有某种非物质的力量,但它却没有。

I tend to gravitate toward a view that sometimes has been credited to David Hume — Colin McGinn is the contemporary philosopher who has made it most prominent — sometimes I think misleadingly called “mysterianism.”

我倾向于倾向于一种有时被认为是大卫·休谟(David Hume)的观点——“科林·麦金(Colin McGinn)是当代哲学家,他使这一观点最为突出”——有时我认为这种观点被称为“神秘主义”,具有误导性。

Tom Nagel in his seminal article, “What Is It Like to Be a Bat?” (whose title captures the essence of the problem), speculated in that article along the lines that I’m suggesting: namely, there may just be some facts about the universe that are true, and we’ll never be satisfied that we intuitively understand them.

汤姆·内格尔(Tom Nagel)在他的开创性文章“成为一只蝙蝠是什么感觉?” (其标题抓住了问题的本质),在那篇文章中按照我建议的思路进行推测:也就是说,可能只是有一些关于宇宙的事实是真实的,我们永远不会满足于我们直观地理解它们。

Not because there is some mystery in the sense of undiscovered scientific principle, but just that our very way of grasping reality might make certain things puzzling to us.

并不是因为未发现的科学原理有什么神秘之处,而是因为我们理解现实的方式可能会让某些事情让我们感到困惑。

Even though we know at a more explicit cognitive level that they’re true.

尽管我们在更明确的认知层面上知道它们是真实的。

A heap of neurons that registers the environment, that organizes the information, acts on it, including a model of itself: from my point of view, it feels like something.

一堆记录环境、组织信息、作用于环境的神经元,包括它自己的模型:从我的角度来看,它感觉像是某种东西。

Why that should be true?

为什么这应该是真的?

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Again, here I am inside me and almost by definition there are going to be some things about the view of me inside me that the me doing the view is not going to be able to articulate because the part that would do the articulating is part of the me trying to explain it.

再说一次,我在我的内心,几乎按照定义,我内心的观点会有一些事情,而做这个观点的我将无法清楚地表达出来,因为进行表达的部分是我试图解释它的一部分。

PINKER

I think there are some cases where human intuition hits a wall and this is one of them.

我认为在某些情况下,人类的直觉会碰壁,这就是其中之一。

The nature of time.

时间的本质。

What could have been before the Big Bang, if that was the beginning of everything.

如果大爆炸是一切的开始的话,那么在大爆炸之前会发生什么。

How can the universe either be finite or infinite?

宇宙怎么可能是有限的或无限的?

There’s no reason to think that every aspect of reality will be intuitive.

没有理由认为现实的每个方面都是直观的。

There may be some aspects where our best science will give us a characterization and we’ll always scratch our head as we appreciate that it’s true, but it never feels totally satisfying.

也许在某些方面,我们最好的科学会给我们一个表征,当我们意识到这是真的时,我们总是会摸不着头脑,但它永远不会让人感到完全满意。

I think there are some cases where human intuition hits a wall and this is one of them.

我认为在某些情况下,人类的直觉会碰壁,这就是其中之一。

The nature of time.

时间的本质。

What could have been before the Big Bang, if that was the beginning of everything.

如果大爆炸是一切的开始的话,那么在大爆炸之前会发生什么。

How can the universe either be finite or infinite?

宇宙怎么可能是有限的或无限的?

There’s no reason to think that every aspect of reality will be intuitive.

没有理由认为现实的每个方面都是直观的。

COWEN

How about metaphysical determinism for the human will?

人类意志的形而上决定论怎么样?

Cause and effect; everything in the mind has a physical correlate, you’ve told us.

因果;你告诉我们,头脑中的一切都与物理相关。

You’re a Darwinian.

你是达尔文主义者。

The natural world is ruled by something like cause and effect and the laws of nature haven’t changed.

自然世界是由因果关系所统治的,自然法则并没有改变。

So our minds are fully determined?

那么我们的心已经完全确定了吗?

PINKER

Well, they —

好吧,他们——

COWEN

You didn’t say yes.

你没有说是。

PINKER: Yes.

平克:是的。

They may not be for any practical purpose determined in the sense that there may be processes that are chaotic, that are nonlinear; where some ions zig instead of zag because of Brownian movement or maybe even quantum phenomena.

它们可能不是为了任何实际目的而确定的,因为可能存在混乱、非线性的过程;由于布朗运动甚至量子现象,一些离子会曲折而不是曲折。

As a result the whole system might behave in one way or another that is physically determined but for all practical purposes random.

因此,整个系统可能会以一种物理上确定的方式运行,但出于所有实际目的是随机的。

It may be so complex that it might be like the weather taken to several higher degrees.

它可能非常复杂,就像天气变得更高了一些。

In theory perhaps Laplace’s demon would be able to tell us what each of us will do next.

从理论上讲,也许拉普拉斯恶魔能够告诉我们每个人下一步会做什么。

Some things that are true in theory are so mind‑bogglingly complicated that they may as well not be true in theory.

有些理论上正确的事情复杂得令人难以置信,以至于它们在理论上也可能不正确。

Yeah, I don’t think there’s any miracle that goes on in the brain when we make a decision.

是的,我不认为当我们做出决定时大脑中会发生任何奇迹。

In that sense, we’re determined.

从这个意义上说,我们有决心。

On the other hand there is so much unpredictability, nonlinearity that for all intents and purposes we’re not determined.

另一方面,存在如此多的不可预测性和非线性,以至于我们无法确定所有的意图和目的。

On the essential Steven Pinker

论重要的史蒂文·平克

COWEN

I’ve been reading through a lot of different aspects of your work, a lot of your books — reading or rereading.

我读过你作品的很多不同方面,你的很多书——阅读或重读。

I’ve been trying to figure out to myself what’s the underlying unity in the thought and writing of Steven Pinker, from irregular verbs to world peace, and yes we’ll get to that.

我一直在试图弄清楚史蒂文·平克的思想和写作的根本统一性是什么,从不规则动词到世界和平,是的,我们会做到这一点。

Let me try to give you my account of what I’ve taken away, which I’m sure is not the same as yours, but it’s a way of prompting you to tell us your view of the underlying unity in all of the things you did.

让我试着向你描述我所带走的东西,我确信这与你的不一样,但这是一种促使你告诉我们你对你所做的所有事情的基本统一的看法的一种方式。

I see you as very often trying to stake out a midway position.

我发现你经常试图采取中间立场。

If there are people out there, say like the blank-slate theorists, who don’t see much structure to the natural world or the social world or the linguistic world, then you reject that.

如果有人,比如白板理论家,看不到自然世界、社会世界或语言世界的太多结构,那么你就会拒绝这一点。

Then on the other hand there are people who postulate too much structure.

另一方面,有些人假设了太多的结构。

And (at least early) Chomsky would be an example there.

(至少在早期)乔姆斯基就是一个例子。

You’re trying to create some kind of intermediate position where there’s room for reason to operate, but within laws of nature.

你试图创造某种中间立场,在那里有理性运作的空间,但在自然法则之内。

You’re trying to rearticulate this modern 21st- and 20th-century vision of what does the Enlightenment mean for now, and how might we apply Enlightenment kinds of reasoning across all the different areas you’ve written on.

您试图重新阐明这种 21 世纪和 20 世纪的现代愿景,即启蒙运动目前意味着什么,以及我们如何将启蒙运动类型的推理应用于您所写的所有不同领域。

Then figuring out, shown in all these books, what are the methodological prerequisites for that.

然后找出所有这些书中所示的方法论先决条件是什么。

It’s levels at which we’re willing to talk about structure, and levels at which we’re not willing to talk about structure; and you staking out this intermediate — what you might call voluntarist — pro‑reason, pro‑science position.

这是我们愿意谈论结构的级别,也是我们不愿意谈论结构的级别;然后你就表明了这个中间立场——你可以称之为唯意志主义——支持理性、支持科学的立场。

That’s what I took away from the whole corpus of Steven Pinker.

这就是我从史蒂文·平克的整个语料库中得到的东西。

Tell me, what is your take on that?

告诉我,你对此有何看法?

PINKER

I think that’s not too far from the way I would see myself.

我认为这与我看待自己的方式并不太远。

Not so much in taking an intermediate position that’s just “find the Goldilocks zone.” Like, “Oh, the truth is always halfway in between two extremes.” It isn’t always.

与其说采取中间立场,不如说是“找到金发姑娘区”。就像,“哦,事实总是介于两个极端之间。”情况并非总是如此。

On the other hand, I do believe in the Enlightenment vision that by understanding our world, that the world is intelligible, that we can understand it.

另一方面,我确实相信启蒙运动的愿景,即通过理解我们的世界,世界是可理解的,我们可以理解它。

That progress in understanding and therefore progress in rational action are possible.

理解上的进步以及理性行动上的进步是可能的。

Including, pointedly, ourselves.

明确地包括我们自己。

I do believe in the Enlightenment vision that by understanding our world, that the world is intelligible, that we can understand it.

我确实相信启蒙运动的愿景,即通过理解我们的世界,世界是可理解的,我们可以理解它。

That progress in understanding and therefore progress in rational action are possible.

理解上的进步以及理性行动上的进步是可能的。

Including, pointedly, ourselves.

明确地包括我们自己。

That is, there is such a thing as human nature.

也就是说,存在人性这样的东西。

It can be studied scientifically the way other phenomena are studied.

它可以像研究其他现象一样进行科学研究。

That it’s good to understand human nature because then we can discount, when necessary, illusions that are quirks of our own makeup.

了解人性是有好处的,因为这样我们就可以在必要时打消我们自己的怪癖所带来的幻想。

That we can understand what it is that gives humans fulfillment and satisfaction and pleasure, what are the resources that we have to work with in improving a political system.

我们能够理解是什么给人类带来满足、满足和快乐,我们在改善政治体系时必须使用哪些资源。

I also think that often — going back to finding a middle ground — the middle ground isn’t finding, say, the arithmetic mean between the two extremes.

我还认为,通常 ——“回到寻找中间立场”—— 中间立场并不是找到两个极端之间的算术平均值。

But rather it’s trying to go down a level of more finer-grain causal mechanisms underneath the phenomena.

相反,它试图在现象背后探究更细粒度的因果机制。

To state a position that may not look like either of the original extremes, because it’s more precise.

陈述一个可能看起来不像最初的极端的立场,因为它更精确。

In the case of language, for example, I’ve always been bored by the idea of “is language innate or is it learned.” It’s neither.

例如,就语言而言,我一直对“语言是天生的还是后天习得的”这个想法感到厌烦。两者都不是。

It’s not halfway in between because that doesn’t give you any insight either.

它不是介于两者之间,因为这也不会给你任何洞察力。

Rather there is an innate structure that does the learning, because learning doesn’t happen by magic.

相反,有一种与生俱来的结构来进行学习,因为学习不会凭空发生。

There has to be something in place that does the learning.

必须有一些东西可以进行学习。

Let’s characterize the nature of the learning mechanism in terms of its information-processing abilities.

让我们从信息处理能力的角度来描述学习机制的本质。

What is its computational architecture, as the computer scientists say?

正如计算机科学家所说,它的计算架构是什么?

Once you have that, that is the solution to the nature-nurture problem; namely, what’s innate is an ability to learn.

一旦你做到了这一点,那就是解决先天与后天问题的方法。也就是说,学习的能力是与生俱来的。

Since any mechanism does some things well and some things not so well, that gives you insight as to what and how we learn.

由于任何机制都有些事情做得很好,有些事情做得不太好,这让你深入了解我们学习什么以及如何学习。

That makes irrelevant the question of “is it innate or is it learned?” There is something that’s innate, but the innate stuff allows us to learn.

这就使得“它是天生的还是后天习得的”这个问题变得无关紧要了。有些东西是与生俱来的,但与生俱来的东西让我们能够学习。

It gets beneath a dichotomy into something that I like to think is more intellectually satisfying.

它在二分法之下变成了我认为在智力上更令人满意的东西。

On the limits of reason

论理性的限度

COWEN

Here’s one difference between us perhaps, and we discussed this earlier in the green room.

这也许是我们之间的一个区别,我们之前在休息室讨论过这一点。

I think of you as believing more strongly in the powers of human reason than I do.

我认为你比我更相信人类理性的力量。

When we hit upon these various (you might call them) antinomies — What does consciousness really mean?

当我们遇到这些不同的(你可以称之为)矛盾时 —— 意识的真正含义是什么?

Is the world really free?

世界真的自由吗?

How do we think about time?

我们如何看待时间?

— you’re quite willing to pull a Kantian or Wittgensteinian move and say, “Well, it all collapses into contradiction.

— 你很愿意采取康德式或维特根斯坦式的做法并说:“好吧,这一切都陷入了矛盾。

Colin McGinn, that’s knowledge forever denied to us.” Then there’s this other sphere in which reason operates quite well.

科林·麦金,我们永远无法获得这些知识。”然后还有另一个领域,理性在其中运作得很好。

I tend to think of that more as a continuum: if we can’t understand some truly fundamental things, the problems in our thinking will bleed into everything we try to analyze.

我倾向于将其视为一个连续体:如果我们不能理解一些真正基本的事情,我们思维中的问题就会渗透到我们试图分析的一切中。

I tend to think of reason as being fairly weak.

我倾向于认为理性相当弱。

Maybe I’m more Hayekian in this way than you are: people being ruled by their passions, as David Hume might have thought.

也许在这方面我比你更倾向于哈耶克:人们被自己的激情所统治,正如大卫·休谟可能认为的那样。

In this sense I’m more skeptical about the Enlightenment.

从这个意义上说,我对启蒙运动更加持怀疑态度。

What can you say to talk me out of this skepticism and back into the truly Pinkerian view?

你能用什么话来说服我摆脱这种怀疑并回到真正的平克主义观点呢?

PINKER

What are we doing here if you don’t believe in reason?

如果你不相信理性,我们在这里做什么?

Why don’t we have an arm wrestle or a beauty contest?

为什么我们不举办扳手腕或选美比赛呢?

COWEN

After dinner.

晚饭后。

PINKER

First of all, by the very act of even posing this question you’re committed to reason.

首先,即使提出这个问题,你也已经致力于理性。

That’s what we’re trying to explore here.

这就是我们在这里试图探索的。

It’s too late.

太晚了。

You’ve already committed yourself to reason.

你已经致力于理性。

That’s one.

这是一个。

Number two, Hume — even though he was a very insightful psychologist and he emphasized that humans are subject to all kinds of irrational passions and biases and so on — one of the reasons that he did philosophy was to expose some of those fallacies, the better that we should be able to work around them.

第二,休谟——尽管他是一位非常有洞察力的心理学家,他强调人类会受到各种非理性激情和偏见等的影响——他研究哲学的原因之一就是揭露其中一些谬误,以便我们能够更好地解决它们。

His argument about reason being a slave to the passions was not so much a psychological claim that people will lose self‑control and they’ll let their emotions get the better of them.

他关于理性是激情的奴隶的论点与其说是一种心理学主张,不如说是人们会失去自我控制,他们会让自己的情绪战胜自己。

He’s partly making a conceptual point that the ability to go from A to B using reason doesn’t tell you what the B should be.

他在一定程度上提出了一个概念性的观点,即使用理性从 A 到 B 的能力并不能告诉你 B 应该是什么。

That there’s a logical distinction between goals on the one hand or desires and beliefs.

一方面,目标与欲望和信念之间存在逻辑区别。

That you can’t through a chain of deduction identify what you ought to aim for.

你无法通过一系列的推论来确定你应该达到的目标。

That’s just a category mistake.

这只是一个类别错误。

That’s different from the psychological claim that people are permanently irrational.

这与人们永远不理性的心理学主张不同。

People can be made more rational, I think he would say, and I would say — by the act of what we’re doing now, that is, exploring implications of ideas; by science, that is, by taking your beliefs and allowing reality to refute them or not; and historically, even though it’s true that people do all kinds of crazy things, subject to all kinds of irrational prejudices, passions, and so on.

我想他会说,我会说,通过我们现在正在做的事情,即探索思想的含义,人们可以变得更加理性;通过科学,也就是说,通过接受你的信念并允许现实反驳它们或不反驳它们;从历史上看,尽管人们确实会做各种疯狂的事情,受到各种非理性的偏见、激情等的影响。

On the other hand, some bad ideas get dropped by the wayside.

另一方面,一些糟糕的想法会被半途而废。

Not necessarily quickly, not necessarily absolutely, but we don’t have human sacrifice anymore.

不一定很快,也不一定绝对,但我们不再需要活人献祭了。

We don’t throw virgins into volcanoes to get better weather.

我们不会为了获得更好的天气而将处女扔进火山。

We don’t have too many hereditary monarchies anymore.

我们不再有太多的世袭君主制。

COWEN

They don’t all work badly.

它们并不都工作得不好。

PINKER

Maybe not, but probably on the whole democracy is a better idea than the Bourbons.

也许不是,但从整体上看,民主可能是比波旁王朝更好的主意。

COWEN

You can have both.

你可以两者兼得。

Denmark.

丹麦。

PINKER

I grew up in Canada, so I grew up with a picture of the Queen in my classroom.

我在加拿大长大,所以我的教室里有一张女王的照片。

Yes, if you have all the pageantry and gossip that you have with having a nice, juicy monarchy but the Queen doesn’t actually think up the laws, it’s probably not a bad compromise.

是的,如果你有一个美好、多汁的君主制所拥有的所有盛况和八卦,但女王实际上并没有想出法律,这可能不是一个糟糕的妥协。

In both the progress of science — and I really do believe there is such a thing as scientific progress.

在科学的进步中——而且我确实相信存在科学进步这样的事情。

We see it in the fruits of technology, but we also see it just in the depth and satisfying nature of scientific explanation.

我们在技术成果中看到了它,但我们也从科学解释的深度和令人满意的性质中看到了它。

Not linearly and not inexorably, but in progress in so many dimensions of human life.

不是线性的,也不是无情的,而是在人类生活的许多方面不断进步。

I’ve documented the historical declines of violence.

我记录了暴力的历史下降。

As an economist, you know that we’ve gotten a lot wealthier and life has gotten better.

作为一名经济学家,你知道我们变得更加富有,生活也变得更好。

In many ways we live longer, we’re healthier, we have more breadth of experience.

从很多方面来说,我们的寿命更长、更健康、经验更丰富。

These are all, I would say, fruits of the Enlightenment, despite the fact that as products of evolution we’ve got a lot of irrational quirks baked into us.

我想说,这些都是启蒙运动的成果,尽管事实上,作为进化的产物,我们体内有很多非理性的怪癖。

Fortunately, and this gets us back to, say, modularity or specialization, we don’t only have irrational passions.

幸运的是,这让我们回到了模块化或专业化,我们不仅有非理性的热情。

We do have this big frontal cortex grafted onto a brain which now and again can override our passions.

我们确实将这个巨大的额叶皮层移植到了大脑上,它时不时地会压倒我们的激情。

We can exert self‑control.

我们可以发挥自我控制力。

We can count to 10.

我们可以数到10。

We can save for a rainy day.

我们可以存钱以备不时之需。

We can hold our horses.

我们可以牵住我们的马。

Not uniformly, not always reliably, but enough that it’s something that we could celebrate and try to encourage.

并不统一,并不总是可靠,但足以让我们可以庆祝并鼓励它。

On things under- and overrated

关于被低估和高估的事情

COWEN

In the middle of all of these dialogues, we have a section called “Underrated, Overrated.” I’m going to name some things, some people, and ask you if you think they’re overrated or underrated.

在所有这些对话的中间,我们有一个名为“被低估,被高估”的部分。我将列出一些事物、一些人的名字,然后问你是否认为他们被高估了还是被低估了。

Feel free to pass on any one of them.

请随意传递其中任何一个。

Let’s start with rap music.

让我们从说唱音乐开始。

PINKER

Oh.

哦。

PINKER

I never got rap music.

我从来没有听过说唱音乐。

I don’t want to say it’s overrated.

我不想说它被高估了。

It may be that I’m overrated, or at least I overrate myself.

也许我被高估了,或者至少我高估了自己。

I was probably born too soon.

大概是我出生太早了。

COWEN

There’s a much younger Steven Pinker on YouTube debating with William F.

YouTube 上有一位年轻得多的史蒂文·平克 (Steven Pinker) 正在与 William F.

Buckley.

巴克利。

Steven Pinker of that time is defending black English and telling William F.

当时的史蒂文·平克(Steven Pinker)正在捍卫黑人英语,并告诉威廉·F·平克(William F.

Buckley he basically doesn’t understand what’s special about it.

巴克利他基本上不明白这有什么特别之处。

Indeed, Buckley doesn’t.

事实上,巴克利不这么认为。

Is rap music in a sense not just a musical extension of the black English you once defended on Firing Line?

从某种意义上说,说唱音乐是否不仅仅是你曾经在前线捍卫的黑人英语的音乐延伸?

PINKER

It is in the sense that I would not make the argument.

从某种意义上说,我不会提出这个论点。

The fact that I don’t have any rap music on my iPod is not an argument for the objective merit of rap music compared to any other kind of music.

我的 iPod 上没有任何说唱音乐这一事实并不能证明说唱音乐相对于任何其他类型的音乐具有客观优点。

There I’m a relativist.

我是一个相对主义者。

Likewise, the grammatical structure of African American English vernacular, as linguists call it, black English, Ebonics, there’s really nothing inherently to choose between the rules in black English vernacular and any other English vernacular.

同样,非裔美国英语白话的语法结构,正如语言学家所说的,黑人英语,Ebonics,在黑人英语白话和任何其他英语白话的规则之间实际上没有什么本质上可以选择的。

There I’m also a relativist.

我也是一个相对主义者。

On the other hand when it comes to what dialect we should use in formal essays, in the academic literature, and in the New York Times, it’s good to have a standard.

另一方面,当谈到我们应该在正式论文、学术文献和《纽约时报》中使用什么方言时,最好有一个标准。

The standard could have been black English if history had run differently.

如果历史以不同的方式发展的话,标准可能是黑人英语。

It doesn’t happen to be.

事实并非如此。

It’s good that we all settle on a standard to maximize communication and efficiency and certain aesthetic judgments.

很高兴我们都制定了一个标准,以最大限度地提高沟通和效率以及某些审美判断。

The standardization is a good thing, but that doesn’t necessarily mean that one standard is objectively better than another.

标准化是一件好事,但这并不一定意味着一个标准客观上优于另一个标准。

COWEN

Aerobic exercise: underrated or overrated?

有氧运动:被低估还是被高估?

PINKER

Underrated.

被低估了。

I like it.

我喜欢它。

COWEN

You like it?

你喜欢吗?

PINKER

Yeah.

是的。

I do it.

我做。

COWEN

You think it’s good for you?

你认为这对你有好处吗?

PINKER

I hope so.

我希望如此。

I like to think that I’m also accomplishing something when I go jogging or cycling.

我喜欢认为,当我慢跑或骑自行车时,我也取得了一些成就。

COWEN

Behavioral economics.

行为经济学。

Economists playing at psychology.

经济学家玩弄心理学。

Obviously you have a stronger background in psychology than the economists.

显然你比经济学家有更强的心理学背景。

What do you think of behavioral econ?

您如何看待行为经济学?

PINKER

I’m for it.

我赞成。

COWEN

What’s it missing?

它缺少什么?

PINKER

I’m completely out of my depth here, but I do think it is too quick to dismiss classical economics.

我完全超出了我的能力范围,但我确实认为现在否定古典经济学还为时过早。

Is this maybe another false dichotomy?

这可能是另一种错误的二分法吗?

The idea that the rational actor and models derived from it are obsolete because humans make certain irrational choices, have certain rules of thumb that can’t be normatively defended — those aren’t necessarily incompatible, because even though every individual human brain might have its quirks and be irrational, it is possible for a collective enterprise that works by certain rules to have a kind of rationality that none of the individual minds has.

理性行动者和由此衍生的模型已经过时了,因为人类会做出某些非理性选择,有某些无法得到规范辩护的经验法则——这些并不一定是不相容的,因为即使每个人的大脑可能都有其怪癖并且是非理性的,但一个按照某些规则运作的集体企业有可能拥有一种个人思想所不具备的理性。

Also it’s possible because we’re corrigible, because the mind is many parts.

这也是可能的,因为我们是可以纠正的,因为头脑是由很多部分组成的。

We can override some of our biases and instincts either though confrontations with reality, through education, through debate.

我们可以通过与现实的对抗、通过教育、通过辩论来克服我们的一些偏见和本能。

We do know even that people who are experienced in market transactions, for example, don’t fall for the kinds of fallacies that behavioral economists are so fond of pointing out.

例如,我们确实知道,即使是在市场交易方面经验丰富的人也不会陷入行为经济学家如此喜欢指出的那种谬论。

You really can’t turn a person into a money pump, even though in the lab I can set up a demo that shows people can be intransitive in their preferences.

你真的不能把一个人变成一个金钱泵,尽管在实验室里我可以设置一个演示来表明人们可以不及物地表达自己的偏好。

You actually put a person in a situation where there’s real money at stake, and all of a sudden they’re not so irrational.

你实际上把一个人置于一个真正的金钱处于危险之中的境地,突然间他们就不再那么不理性了。

COWEN

They walk away.

他们走开。

The passive voice in writing.

写作中的被动语态。

PINKER

Underrated.

被低估了。

COWEN

Underrated?

被低估?

PINKER

Yeah, underrated.

是的,被低估了。

In the following sense.

在以下意义上。

You open up any style manual and one of the first bits of advice is don’t use the passive.

当你打开任何风格手册时,第一个建议就是不要使用被动语态。

That’s too crude.

这太粗糙了。

Academics overuse the passive, or maybe I should say the passive voice is overused by academics.

学者过度使用被动语态,或者也许我应该说被动语态被学者过度使用。

COWEN

That’s better.

这样更好。

COWEN

It is thought as such by many people.

很多人都是这样认为的。

PINKER

So it is thought.

故如此以为。

The case is overdrawn because no construction could have survived in the language for more than 1,500 years if it didn’t serve some purpose.

这个案子已经透支了,因为如果没有某种目的,任何结构都不可能在该语言中保存超过 1,500 年。

There are circumstances in which the passive is the better choice.

在某些情况下,被动是更好的选择。

In particular when the topic of a conversation, the entity that’s already in the spotlight, is the done-to or acted-upon.

特别是当对话的主题(已经处于聚光灯下的实体)是已完成或已采取的行动时。

Another rule of style, aside from avoiding the passive, is start the sentence with the given information, the topic.

除了避免被动语态之外,另一条风格规则是以给定的信息(即主题)开始句子。

End the sentence with the new information, the focus.

用新信息、焦点来结束句子。

If you’re already talking about something that is done to, then that’s the logical way to begin the next sentence, and the passive voice makes that possible.

如果你已经在谈论已完成的某件事,那么这就是开始下一个句子的合乎逻辑的方式,而被动语态使这成为可能。

If I’m saying, “Look at that mime in the park.

如果我说:“看看公园里的那个哑剧。

He’s being pelted with zucchini,” then since I’ve already called your attention to the mime, now I want to add information about him.

他被扔了西葫芦,”既然我已经引起你对哑剧的注意,现在我想添加有关他的信息。

If he happens to be the brunt of an action then the passive voice is the way to begin the next sentence with him, as opposed to saying “some people are throwing zucchini at him,” where he gets put at the focus of the sentence, which is the best place to introduce new information.

如果他碰巧是某个动作的首当其冲,那么被动语态就是与他一起开始下一个句子的方式,而不是说“有些人向他扔西葫芦”,这样他就成为句子的焦点,这是引入新信息的最佳位置。

In fact, as I point out in The Sense of Style, the two most famous style guides in the English language, namely Orwell’s “Politics and the English Language” and Strunk and White’s The Elements of Style, both accidentally use the passive in the very sentence in which they say “don’t use the passive.”

事实上,正如我在《风格的感觉》中指出的,两本最著名的英语语言风格指南,即奥威尔的《政治与英语语言》和斯特伦克和怀特的《风格的要素》,都无意中在他们所说的“不要使用被动语态”的句子中使用了被动语态。

COWEN

William Shatner.

威廉·沙特纳。

COWEN

You’re connected to him in several ways.

你通过多种方式与他联系。

PINKER

Oh, fellow Montreal Jew.

噢,蒙特利尔犹太人。

PINKER

I have to say underrated.

不得不说被低估了。

Although maybe not his singing.

虽然也许不是他的歌声。

COWEN

You’re well known for your photography.

你因摄影而闻名。

Here’s Susan Sontag writing on photography.

这是苏珊·桑塔格关于摄影的文章。

I quote: “Photographing is essentially an act of non-intervention.” She also wrote, “It is mainly a social rite, a defense against anxiety, and a tool of power.” Yes or no?

我引用:“摄影本质上是一种不干预的行为。”她还写道,“这主要是一种社交仪式,是对焦虑的防御,也是一种权力工具。”是还是不是?

PINKER

Overrated.

被高估了。

COWEN

Overrated?

被高估了?

PINKER

Yeah.

是的。

COWEN

Photography is, or Susan Sontag?

摄影是,还是苏珊·桑塔格?

PINKER

Maybe just that passage.

也许只是那一段。

Like any art form, photography is many things.

与任何艺术形式一样,摄影有很多含义。

First and foremost, it’s a simulacrum of perceptual experience.

首先,它是感知体验的拟像。

It’s possible because visual perception doesn’t consist of knowing the external world directly, but rather making hypotheses about it via a two‑dimensional array of light that’s reflected from it.

这是可能的,因为视觉感知并不包括直接了解外部世界,而是通过从外部世界反射的二维光阵列对其做出假设。

You duplicate that two‑dimensional array of light with pigment or LEDs and you can fool the perceiver into thinking that he’s seeing the actual thing.

你用颜料或 LED 复制二维光阵列,你可以欺骗感知者,让他们以为他看到的是真实的东西。

That is then in tension with the fact that the photograph itself is a splash of geometric and colored patches.

这与照片本身是几何和彩色斑块的事实产生了紧张关系。

The challenge of photography is to both convey a sense of something out there, but also for that two‑dimensional patch to itself be an aesthetically pleasing object.

摄影的挑战在于既要传达某种事物的感觉,又要让二维斑块本身成为一个美观的物体。

As a photographer, I’m always cognizant of what will that two‑dimensional patchwork of color look like and what is it a photograph of.

作为一名摄影师,我总是清楚二维的色彩拼凑会是什么样子,以及它是一张什么照片。

COWEN

If you think of all the different things you’ve written in various areas, what do you think has been your biggest mistake?

如果你想想你在不同领域写过的所有不同的东西,你认为你最大的错误是什么?

PINKER

Oh, where do I begin?

哦,我从哪里开始呢?

PINKER

Where to begin?

从哪里开始?

Biggest mistake.

最大的错误。

I’m going to punt on that.

我要押注这一点。

COWEN

OK.

好的。

That’s fine.

没关系。

PINKER

Why don’t I just say that, so as not to convey the impression that I’ve never made mistakes, there’s so many where do I begin?

我为什么不直接这么说,以免给人留下我从来没有犯过错误的印象,我从哪里开始呢?

On the future of peace

关于和平的未来

COWEN

Let’s turn to the topic of world peace.

让我们谈谈世界和平的话题。

The book Better Angels of Our Nature will be available afterwards.

《我们本性的更好的天使》一书随后将上市。

Let me ask you a general question.

让我问你一个一般性问题。

Let’s say it were possible by spending $10,000 and devoting a few months of your life to it that any person on earth could blow up a significant part of a major city.

假设地球上的任何人只要花费 10,000 美元并投入几个月的时间,就有可能炸毁一座大城市的很大一部分。

They could buy something, some kind of explosive.

他们可以买一些东西,某种炸药。

It would cost them $10,000.

他们将花费 10,000 美元。

How long would it take before someone actually did this?

需要多长时间才能有人真正做到这一点?

PINKER

Anywhere on earth?

地球上任何地方?

COWEN

Anywhere on earth.

地球上任何地方。

Seven billion people on earth.

地球上有七十亿人。

Any one of them that can come up with the $10K and have a desire to do it, which is not most people of course.

他们中的任何一个人都可以拿出 1 万美元并愿意这样做,当然这不是大多数人。

How long would it take before this would happen?

需要多长时间才会发生这种情况?

PINKER

Oh, I have no idea.

哦,我不知道。

By blow up, do you mean like the Tsarnaev brothers?

你所说的“爆炸”是指像察纳耶夫兄弟那样吗?

Or do you mean like Hiroshima?

或者你的意思是像广岛那样?

COWEN

Like Hiroshima.

就像广岛一样。

PINKER

Someone on earth anywhere.

地球上任何地方的某个人。

Maybe not too long.

也许不会太久。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I couldn’t really prophecy that.

我真的无法预言这一点。

COWEN

Let me then work back from that and ask you about your optimism about peace.

然后让我回过头来问你对和平的乐观态度如何。

Is it then your belief it will never be that cheap to blow things up?

那么你是否相信炸毁东西永远不会那么便宜?

PINKER

I don’t know.

我不知道。

My optimism doesn’t consist of prophecy in that sense.

我的乐观主义并不包含这种意义上的预言。

That is, my optimism consists of looking at what has happened and noting that, first of all, the pessimistic view is factually incorrect.

也就是说,我的乐观主义包括审视所发生的事情,并指出,首先,悲观观点实际上是错误的。

Namely, people believe that we’re living in unusually violent times and we’re not.

也就是说,人们认为我们生活在异常暴力的时代,但事实并非如此。

How to project that into the future is a separate set of questions.

如何将其预测到未来是一组单独的问题。

There are many unknowns that I’m not arrogant enough to know the answer to.

有很多未知数,我还没有傲慢到知道答案。

It’s something that we could debate.

这是我们可以争论的事情。

We could explore them.

我们可以探索它们。

I am not an optimist in the sense of saying, “Well, let’s just extrapolate the curves in the future without asking questions like that.”

我并不是一个乐观主义者,我会说:“好吧,让我们推断未来的曲线,而不用问这样的问题。”

COWEN

Maybe you could at least try to talk me out of my pessimism.

也许你至少可以试着说服我摆脱悲观情绪。

PINKER

OK.

好的。

COWEN

What I see is that through the course of history, as society has become wealthier, they also find destructive power is cheaper.

我看到的是,随着历史的进程,随着社会变得更加富裕,他们也发现破坏力变得更便宜。

For most people even today the destructive power at their hands, while it can be quite terrible, it’s not enough to take out a major city or start a war.

即使在今天,对于大多数人来说,他们手中的破坏力虽然可能相当可怕,但还不足以摧毁一座主要城市或发动一场战争。

But the price of destructive power has been falling for as long as we’ve had economic growth.

但只要我们有经济增长,破坏力的价格就一直在下降。

It’s hard for me to think of exceptions to that trend.

我很难想到这种趋势的例外情况。

If I expect economic growth to continue, I expect we’ll get in a world in some way a bit like my $10,000 question, “How long would it take?” I worry that will happen a few times.

如果我期望经济持续增长,我预计我们会进入一个有点像我的 10,000 美元问题的世界:“需要多长时间?”我担心这种情况会发生几次。

Then we will cycle into some fairly significant form of disorder.

然后我们就会陷入某种相当严重的混乱状态。

That’s my default prediction.

这是我的默认预测。

I don’t quite mean to prophesize it, but I take that to be what one normally would expect.

我并不是有意预言这一点,但我认为这是人们通常所期望的。

I’m happy for you to talk me out of that.

我很高兴你能说服我不要这么做。

What’s the weakest premise in the chain I’ve given you?

我给你的链条中最薄弱的前提是什么?

PINKER

I guess there are two.

我想有两个。

One is that every form of physical accomplishment follows an exponential curve of getting cheaper and cheaper.

一是每一种形式的身体成就都遵循指数曲线,变得越来越便宜。

For example, plane travel hasn’t gotten faster and faster.

例如,飞机旅行并没有变得越来越快。

If you extrapolate from the Wright brothers to say 1957, then it just totally leveled off.

如果你从莱特兄弟推断 1957 年,那么它就完全趋于平稳了。

In fact, it might be a little bit slower for a number of reasons.

事实上,由于多种原因,它可能会慢一些。

It is not necessarily true that there will be a $10,000 nuclear weapon.

不一定会有 10,000 美元的核武器。

I’m not an expert on nuclear proliferation, but my reading is that you still need the thousands of centrifuges and so on.

我不是核扩散方面的专家,但我的理解是,你仍然需要数千台离心机等等。

That’s one, at least, topic to explore.

这至少是一个值得探索的话题。

Again, I’m not an optimist in saying, “Oh, relax, it will never happen.” On the other hand, I think it’s too easy to be a pessimist and to say that I can imagine bad things, therefore they are certain.

再说一遍,我并不是一个乐观主义者,不会说“哦,放松,这永远不会发生。”另一方面,我认为成为一个悲观主义者并说我可以想象坏事,因此它们是确定的,这太容易了。

Which I think has been a default in a lot of our discourse.

我认为这在我们的很多谈话中都是默认的。

The other is how much of desire is there for that kind of destruction?

另一个问题是,人们对这种破坏的渴望有多大?

The rate-limiting step on terrorist destruction is how many people think that it’s a good idea to cause a lot of damage for no particular reason.

恐怖分子破坏的速度限制步骤是有多少人认为无特殊原因造成大量破坏是个好主意。

There could be Tsarnaev brothers in this audience and there could be a pressure cooker that would blow up in the next few minutes.

听众中可能有察尔纳耶夫兄弟,也可能有一个高压锅在接下来的几分钟内爆炸。

I don’t think there will be.

我认为不会有。

But clearly there’s no technological or economic impediment to that.

但显然这不存在技术或经济障碍。

The amount of violence that we see is not limited by costs of technology.

我们看到的暴力数量并不受技术成本的限制。

It’s limited by the number of people who think that it would be a good idea to blow a lot of stuff up for no reason other than attracting publicity.

它受到认为除了吸引公众关注之外没有任何理由炸掉很多东西是个好主意的人数量的限制。

There are certain kinds of violence that are so pointless that no one really wants to do it.

有些暴力行为毫无意义,以至于没有人真正愿意这样做。

One of the reasons that we’ve gone now more than 70 years without a nuclear weapon being used in war is that they’re just not terribly useful as weapons to accomplish anything.

我们已经 70 多年没有在战争中使用核武器的原因之一是,它们作为武器并没有多大用处。

They’re useful to deter an existential threat and all-out invasion.

它们对于阻止生存威胁和全面入侵很有用。

That’s presumably why North Korea wants them.

这大概就是朝鲜想要它们的原因。

But they haven’t been used on the battlefield because leaving a huge radioactive crater is just not a very coherent war goal.

但它们还没有在战场上使用,因为留下一个巨大的放射性弹坑并不是一个非常连贯的战争目标。

You could imagine some apocalyptic cult where destruction for its own sake is so desirable that they would do anything possible.

你可以想象一些世界末日邪教,为了破坏本身而进行破坏是如此令人向往,以至于他们会做任何可能的事情。

We don’t know how many people like that there are.

我们不知道有多少这样的人。

I don’t know the answer.

我不知道答案。

On the Fermi Paradox and existential threats

论费米悖论和生存威胁

COWEN

Let me try another angle on potential pessimism and see if you can talk me down out of that tree.

让我尝试从另一个角度来看待潜在的悲观主义,看看你是否能说服我放弃那棵树。

I’m sure you’ve thought about the Fermi paradox.

我相信你已经考虑过费米悖论。

There are more and more potentially habitable planets out there, and yet no one is showing up to visit us or sending us signals or constructing glamorous advertisements up there in the stars by manipulating matter.

那里有越来越多的潜在宜居行星,但没有人出现来拜访我们或向我们发送信号或通过操纵物质在恒星上构建迷人的广告。

The universe seems oddly quiet, at least our corner of it.

宇宙似乎出奇地安静,至少我们所在的角落是如此。

That’s not a surprise if you think that civilizations tend to destroy themselves once energy becomes cheap enough, but otherwise if one is relatively optimistic as a default, where are they, to pose Fermi’s question to you?

如果你认为一旦能源变得足够便宜,文明就会自我毁灭,这并不奇怪,但除此之外,如果人们相对乐观地默认,那么向你提出费米问题的文明在哪里?

PINKER

I don’t think there’s a natural arc toward destruction of civilizations.

我认为文明的毁灭并不存在自然规律。

In fact, one could make the argument that it goes the other direction.

事实上,人们可以说它朝另一个方向发展。

That as you become more advanced, civilizations develop mechanisms that make conflict less likely, which I think is the trajectory we have gone on so far.

随着你变得更加先进,文明会发展出减少冲突可能性的机制,我认为这就是我们迄今为止所走的轨迹。

Again, I’m not willing to prophecy that it will continue.

再说一次,我不愿意预言它会继续下去。

But war is a pretty stupid thing to do.

但战争是一件相当愚蠢的事情。

You blow a lot of stuff up.

你炸毁了很多东西。

You kill people.

你杀人。

You don’t end up with anything that you couldn’t have gotten from some other means.

你最终不会得到任何通过其他方式无法得到的东西。

As soon as you become too belligerent, you give other people an incentive to destroy you.

一旦你变得过于好战,别人就会有动力摧毁你。

That may not be avoidable in Hobbesian anarchy, but if you can have some kind of system either of world government or of a functional equivalent like international norms in the United Nations and a set of expectations, then everyone could live a lot better if you aren’t all living by the sword.

在霍布斯式的无政府状态下,这可能是无法避免的,但如果你能拥有某种世界政府体系或类似联合国国际规范和一系列期望的功能体系,那么每个人都可以生活得更好,如果你们不是都生活在剑下。

It’s just as plausible to me that as civilizations advance, rather than having more and more destructive wars, they could continue the trend that we’ve been on since World War II and they eventually make war obsolete.

对我来说,同样合理的是,随着文明的进步,它们不会发生越来越多的破坏性战争,而是会继续我们自二战以来一直存在的趋势,并最终使战争变得过时。

That’s another plausible trajectory.

这是另一个看似合理的轨迹。

Indeed, the idea that the worst aspects of this particular primate — namely, we evolved in such a way that we are too quick to anger, too quick to defend our dominance — that that’s the only way for intelligence to evolve I think is parochial.

事实上,认为这种特殊灵长类动物最糟糕的方面——即我们进化得太快发怒,太快捍卫我们的统治地位——我认为这是智力进化的唯一方式,这种想法是狭隘的。

It’s saying that what we see in Homo sapiens is the only way that intelligent beings can come into existence.

这就是说,我们在智人身上看到的东西是智慧生物存在的唯一途径。

I don’t think we should be constrained by that.

我认为我们不应该受此限制。

COWEN

Outside of zoos and the like, do you think the other primates will go extinct?

除了动物园之类的地方,你认为其他灵长类动物会灭绝吗?

PINKER

Not the other primates.

其他灵长类动物则不然。

COWEN

The larger ones.

较大的。

PINKER

I don’t think there will ever be a shortage of monkeys.

我认为猴子永远不会短缺。

COWEN

Larger.

更大。

PINKER

Monkeys are like rats.

猴子就像老鼠。

As you know you go to India and they’re everywhere.

如你所知,你去印度,他们无处不在。

Great apes?

类人猿?

It depends.

这取决于。

It just depends on the race between poaching and habitat destruction on the one hand, and conservation and ecotourism on the other.

它一方面取决于偷猎和栖息地破坏之间的竞争,另一方面取决于保护和生态旅游之间的竞争。

I don’t think they have to.

我认为他们不必这样做。

They could, but I don’t think they have to.

他们可以,但我认为他们不必这样做。

COWEN

What do you see personally as the greatest existential threat to high civilization?

您个人认为对高级文明来说最大的生存威胁是什么?

Your biggest worry.

你最大的担心。

PINKER

I’ll give you climate change and nuclear war.

我会给你气候变化和核战争。

COWEN

Why climate change?

为什么气候变化?

Even if one thinks that’s very costly, is there really a scenario where it ends civilization?

即使人们认为这代价很高,但真的存在终结文明的情况吗?

Can’t people move, adjust, build?

人们不能移动、调整、建造吗?

PINKER

They could, yeah.

他们可以,是的。

It could be unrecognizable under the most extreme scenarios of what could happen.

在可能发生的最极端情况下,它可能无法被识别。

It would be pretty miserable if you imagine the number of people that would die, and the decrement in prosperity.

如果你想象一下将会有多少人死去,以及繁荣的减少,那将是相当悲惨的。

It would be pretty bad.

那就太糟糕了。

I don’t think it would extinguish us as a species, for the reasons that you mentioned.

出于你提到的原因,我认为这不会使我们作为一个物种灭绝。

On TV shows

在电视节目中

COWEN

What’s your favorite TV show?

你最喜欢的电视节目是什么?

PINKER

Let’s see.

让我们来看看。

In my entire lifetime or currently?

在我的一生中还是现在?

COWEN

Up to you.

由你决定。

Now, in your lifetime, when you were 19 .

现在,在你的一生中,当你 19 岁的时候。

.

。

.

。

PINKER

Let’s see.

让我们来看看。

I like the Ed Sullivan Show.

我喜欢埃德·沙利文秀。

COWEN

Why Ed Sullivan?

为什么是埃德·沙利文?

PINKER

Where else could you see Italian acrobats, and then a Jewish comedian, and then the Beatles, and the Supremes, and then another Jewish comedian, all in an hour?

你还能在哪里看到意大利杂技演员,然后是犹太​​喜剧演员,然后是披头士乐队、至尊乐队,然后是另一位犹太喜剧演员,所有这一切都在一小时内完成?

COWEN

He was an early proponent of integration on TV.

他是电视一体化的早期支持者。

You probably know this.

你可能知道这一点。

PINKER

Absolutely.

绝对地。

COWEN

Very influential.

非常有影响力。

PINKER

Absolutely.

绝对地。

Particularly he had the Supremes on I think more than any other single act, in an era where America had just barely started to desegregate.

特别是在美国刚刚开始废除种族隔离的时代,我认为他对最高法院的表演比任何其他单一表演都多。

So yes.

所以是的。

I liked Hill Street Blues.

我喜欢希尔街布鲁斯。

I don’t even know if that’s available on streaming.

我什至不知道这是否可以在流媒体上播放。

I like Cheers.

我喜欢干杯。

As you can see, I haven’t done a lot of TV watching recently.

正如你所看到的,我最近看电视的次数不多。

COWEN

It’s probably efficient.

这可能是有效的。

PINKER

Most academics I think secretly watch TV as a guilty pleasure and then deny it.

我认为大多数学者都把看电视视为一种罪恶的乐趣,然后又否认这一点。

I’m the other way around.

我恰恰相反。

I don’t watch a whole lot of TV, and I feel like I ought to watch more.

我不看太多电视,但我觉得我应该看更多。

COWEN

They’re starting to use irregular verbs again.

他们又开始使用不规则动词。

Most academics I think secretly watch TV as a guilty pleasure and then deny it.

我认为大多数学者都把看电视视为一种罪恶的乐趣,然后又否认这一点。

I’m the other way around.

我恰恰相反。

I don’t watch a whole lot of TV, and I feel like I ought to watch more.

我不看太多电视,但我觉得我应该看更多。

On CRISPR

关于CRISPR

COWEN

Let’s take bioengineering technologies, gene editing, CRISPR, and the like.

以生物工程技术、基因编辑、CRISPR 等为例。

Imagine a much more advanced version than what stands right before us.

想象一个比我们面前的版本更先进的版本。

Imagine that parents could to some extent influence or design the children they would have, above and beyond eliminating a few particular diseases.

想象一下,除了消除一些特定的疾病之外,父母还可以在某种程度上影响或设计他们的孩子。

Does that worry you, or does that get you excited that we’re going to have smarter, better people?

这会让你担心吗?还是因为我们将拥有更聪明、更好的员工而感到兴奋?

PINKER

I’m skeptical of the premise.

我对这个前提表示怀疑。

As someone who is very interested in genetically influenced traits, and was excited in the ’90s at the possibility that we’d find the gene for this and the gene for that, and there were a number of discoveries which turned out to be false alarms.

作为一个对受基因影响的性状非常感兴趣的人,在 90 年代,我们对找到这种基因和那种基因的可能性感到兴奋,并且有许多发现被证明是虚惊一场。

Now more and more I appreciate that even traits that have a heavy genetic component, which most traits do, the genetic influence is distributed over thousands and thousands of genes, each of which increment or decrement the trait by a smidgen, and many of which have a mixture of positive and negative effects.

现在,我越来越认识到,即使是具有大量遗传成分的性状(大多数性状都是如此),遗传影响也分布在成千上万个基因上,每个基因都会稍微增加或减少性状,其中许多基因具有积极和消极影响的混合体。

The idea that you’ll put in the gene for musical ability in your child just turns out to be factually incorrect.

事实证明,将音乐能力基因植入孩子的想法是错误的。

That’s not the way genes work.

这不是基因的工作方式。

COWEN

But not now.

但现在不行。

Say we apply big data, Monte Carlo methods — you only raise the chance of your kid being a certain way by 1 percent, but there’s that technology — and let it rip for 50 generations.

假设我们应用大数据、蒙特卡洛方法 ——你只能将你的孩子成为某种方式的可能性提高 1%,但技术已经存在了 ——并且让它传承 50 代人。

At the end, aren’t people very, very different?

最后,人们不是非常非常不同吗?

PINKER

Depends on what the tradeoffs are.

取决于权衡是什么。

We don’t know how much boost in brain power you can get without an increase in the chances of brain cancer or of other tradeoffs.

我们不知道在不增加患脑癌或其他权衡的机会的情况下,您的脑力可以获得多少提升。

A neural network that’s too dense actually is stupider.

过于密集的神经网络实际上更愚蠢。

I’m rooted enough in what we know about behavioral genetics to think that these science-fiction scenarios are not particularly productive.

我对行为遗传学的了解足够深入,认为这些科幻小说中的场景并不是特别有效。

It’s probably a scenario that we’re not going to have to worry about just because it’s too complicated, especially since every time you monkey with a gene you are taking some chance that something will go wrong.

我们可能不必担心这种情况,因为它太复杂了,特别是因为每次你对基因进行胡闹时,你都会冒一些出问题的机会。

Admittedly CRISPR‑Cas9 has become extraordinarily accurate.

无可否认,CRISPR-Cas9 已经变得异常准确。

But if you’re talking about changing 1,000 genes in your offspring, or 10,000 genes, we’re so risk‑averse in genetic manipulation even when it comes to our tomatoes.

但如果你谈论的是改变你后代的 1,000 个基因,或者 10,000 个基因,那么即使涉及到我们的西红柿,我们也会在基因操作方面规避风险。

People won’t eat a tomato if it’s genetically modified.

如果西红柿是转基因的,人们就不会吃它。

The idea that you’re going to take that kind of risk with your children — I think it’s extraordinary unlikely that we’ll get there from here.

你要和你的孩子一起冒这种风险的想法——我认为我们从这里实现这一点的可能性非常小。

Do you want me to speculate about the science-fiction scenario in which we do?

你想让我推测一下我们所做的科幻小说场景吗?

COWEN

Sure, speculate a bit.

当然,稍微推测一下。

PINKER

I don’t think it would be a terrible thing, but I think it’s idle speculation.

我不认为这会是一件可怕的事情,但我认为这是毫无意义的猜测。

I don’t think we’re going to have to worry about it.

我认为我们不必为此担心。

COWEN

Last question before we get to Q&A.

我们进行问答之前的最后一个问题。

What is a book we might be surprised to find on your shelves that you’ve read, or will read, or want to read?

我们可能会惊讶地发现您书架上有哪本书是您已经读过、将要读或想要读的书?

We’re not surprised to hear Jerry Fodor and Noam Chomsky are on your shelf.

听到杰里·福多 (Jerry Fodor) 和诺姆·乔姆斯基 (Noam Chomsky) 出现在您的书架上,我们并不感到惊讶。

What would surprise us?

什么会让我们感到惊讶?

What’s there that we don’t think of as a Steven Pinker kind of book to read?

还有什么是我们不认为史蒂文·平克式的书值得一​​读的呢?

PINKER

I have a big stack of bicycling magazines, and I am obsessed about the difference in weight in grams between various kinds of derailleurs and water bottle cages.

我有一大堆自行车杂志,我对各种变速器和水壶架之间的重量差异(以克为单位)着迷。

COWEN

So it’s aerobic exercise being underrated again?

那么有氧运动又被低估了吗?

PINKER

Yeah, maybe.

是的,也许吧。

COWEN

Steven Pinker, thank you very much.

史蒂文·平克,非常感谢你。

PINKER

Thanks so much, Tyler.

非常感谢,泰勒。

Q&A

问答

AUDIENCE MEMBER

Hi, Mr. Pinker — thank you for speaking today.

您好,平克先生 ——感谢您今天的发言。

You mentioned the preservation of uncommon words and dialects that evolved as a result of geographic isolation, such as Appalachia and remote islands.

您提到由于地理隔离而演变的不常见单词和方言的保存,例如阿巴拉契亚和偏远岛屿。

With international connectivity caused by the Internet, do you think that we are on track for more linguistic homogeneity?

随着互联网带来的国际连通性,您认为我们是否正在走向更加语言同质化的轨道?

PINKER

We almost certainly are.

我们几乎肯定是。

We’re in the midst of a mass extinction of languages.

我们正处于语言的大规模灭绝之中。

I don’t think it will result in everyone speaking English.

我不认为这会导致每个人都说英语。

Even under the most dire predictions, say 90 percent of languages go extinct, that leaves 600.

即使按照最可怕的预测,即 90% 的语言会灭绝,也只剩下 600 种语言。

No one is going to be giving up Spanish or Hindi or Russian or Chinese any time soon.

短期内没有人会放弃西班牙语、印地语、俄语或汉语。

In fact, the growth of translation software and of national media — combined with old‑fashioned national pride and just the inertia of growing up with a language and feeling more comfortable in it — means that we’re not going to have a single language driving out all the others.

事实上,翻译软件和国家媒体的发展 ——再加上老式的民族自豪感,以及与一种语言一起成长并在其中感觉更舒服的惯性——意味着我们不会有一种语言排斥所有其他语言。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

Thank you.

谢谢。

COWEN

On this side.

在这一边。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

I appreciate the book, and quite an amazing thing that Bill Gates is recommending this book, so I have it.

我很欣赏这本书,比尔·盖茨推荐这本书真是太棒了,所以我有了它。

Do you believe that mankind has the ability to get prophetic dreams, like Joseph in the Bible?

你相信人类有能力像圣经中的约瑟一样得到预言性的梦吗?

Do you believe that we can act on those prophetic dreams?

你相信我们能够实现那些预言性的梦想吗?

I did psychiatry, so I’m interested in your answer from that perspective.

我学的是精神病学,所以我对你从这个角度的回答感兴趣。

PINKER

No.

不。

PINKER

No. I think dreams are a kind of screen saver.

不,我认为梦想是一种屏幕保护程序。

It would violate much of what we know about physics for a dream to be able to prophesy the future.

如果梦想能够预言未来,这将违反我们对物理学的大部分了解。

Our understanding of physics, I think, is good enough to rule out the possibility that dreams can be prophetic.

我认为,我们对物理学的理解足以排除梦具有预言性的可能性。

COWEN

On this side.

在这一边。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

I was influenced by some essays you’ve written about the limits of language to advance political change.

我受到你写的一些关于语言对推动政治变革的限制的文章的影响。

You’ve written about the euphemism treadmill and stuff like that.

你写过关于委婉的跑步机之类的东西。

There seems to be modern versions of that, where to abolish gender binaries, we’re going to abandon pronouns and so forth.

似乎有现代版本,为了废除性别二元论,我们将放弃代词等等。

You work on a university so you’re probably familiar with a lot of this.

您在一所大学工作,因此您可能对此很熟悉。

I’d like your opinion on some of these strategies for advancing social change through abandoning certain languages and certain words and forms of language.

我想了解您对通过放弃某些语言、某些词语和语言形式来推进社会变革的一些策略的看法。

PINKER

Politically motivated campaigns to change language can have an effect, as we see in what I call the euphemism treadmill — that is, the fact that we don’t use the word negro anymore, even though it was a perfectly respectful and unexceptionable term through the 1970s.

出于政治动机改变语言的运动可能会产生效果,正如我们在我所说的委婉语跑步机中看到的那样——也就是说,我们不再使用“黑人”这个词,尽管它在 20 世纪 70 年代是一个完全受人尊敬且无可例外的术语。

Martin Luther King frequently referred to Negroes.

马丁·路德·金经常提到黑人。

You had the United Negro College Fund.

你有联合黑人学院基金。

That got replaced by black, which then got replaced by African American.

后来被黑人取代,然后又被非裔美国人取代。

But it’s easier to do it with what linguists call open-class vocabulary items, nouns and verbs, than with closed-class or grammatical items like pronouns.

但使用语言学家所说的开放类词汇项、名词和动词,比使用代词等封闭类或语法项更容易。

Since the ’70s, there have been a number of proposals to introduce a gender‑neutral pronoun into the English language, so that we wouldn’t have to say he or she, or the clumsy he or she.

自 70 年代以来,出现了许多建议,希望在英语中引入中性代词,这样我们就不必说 he 或 she,或者笨拙的 he 或 she。

None of them have caught on.

但他们都没有流行起来。

Language doesn’t change in terms of its — it does change, but not quickly, and usually not by deliberate engineering when it comes to things like articles, pronouns, past tense and plural markers, and so on.

语言不会改变它的本身——它确实会改变,但不会很快,而且当涉及冠词、代词、过去时和复数标记等时,通常不是通过刻意的工程改变。

There’ll be just a natural resistance.

只会有一种自然的阻力。

They’re learned early.

他们很早就学会了。

They are highly frequent.

它们出现的频率很高。

They are distributed across millions of people conversing with one another.

它们分布在数百万人中,相互交谈。

I don’t think we have to worry about that changing too, too quickly.

我认为我们不必担心这种变化太快。

But, sure, there are more respectful and less respectful ways of referring to people.

但是,当然,有更尊重和不太尊重的称呼方式。

We’ve seen those change, and they’ll probably continue to change.

我们已经看到了这些变化,而且可能会继续变化。

What I call the euphemism treadmill refers to the fact that the reason there often is a cycling is that the change in attitudes that you want to affect by changing the language will meet resistance in terms of the rest of our psychology.

我所谓的委婉跑步机指的是这样一个事实,即经常出现循环的原因是,你想通过改变语言来影响态度的改变会遇到我们其他心理方面的阻力。

I don’t think it’s true that language determines your attitudes and beliefs, although it can push against them.

我认为语言并不能决定你的态度和信仰,尽管它可以推动它们。

As long as there’s still some kind of negative connotation to an entity, then changing the label for it will just result in the new label picking up the emotional aura of the concept rather than the other way around.

只要一个实体仍然存在某种负面含义,那么改变它的标签只会导致新标签拾取该概念的情感光环,而不是相反。

As long as there is prejudice against African Americans where the connotation is not as positive as you’d like it to be, there will be the urge to find a new label that has not yet absorbed the taint of the existing one.

只要对非裔美国人存在偏见,而且其含义并不像你希望的那样积极,就会有寻找一个尚未吸收现有标签污点的新标签的冲动。

African American I think took over pretty quickly sometime in the 1990s.

我认为非洲裔美国人在 20 世纪 90 年代的某个时候很快就占据了主导地位。

I think Jesse Jackson was the force behind it.

我认为杰西·杰克逊是其背后的力量。

We have gone now for more than 20-something years without a replacement of that, which might be a reflection of the fact that prejudice against African Americans is declining.

我们已经有二十多年没有更换它了,这可能反映了对非裔美国人的偏见正在减少的事实。

In other cases like Asian replacing Oriental, that stayed put, possibly because there was less prejudice against Asian people and there wasn’t a need to find a fresh replacement for that.

在其他情况下,例如亚洲人取代东方人,这种情况保持不变,可能是因为对亚洲人的偏见较少,并且不需要找到新的替代者。

COWEN

If I could just interject on this, given this campaign season and also what you can, say, see on Twitter if you look for it, do you think public speech is now evolving to become less polite?

如果我能插话一下,考虑到这个竞选季节,以及你在推特上搜索后可以看到的内容,你认为公共言论现在是否正在变得越来越不礼貌?

In America?

在美国?

PINKER

It’s possible.

这是可能的。

I don’t think that the Trumpism shows that our attitudes have changed, that we’re becoming more misogynistic or racist.

我不认为特朗普主义表明我们的态度已经改变,我们变得更加厌恶女性或种族主义。

You can do some Google searches that are quicker than Gallup or Pew polls to track some of these changes.

您可以进行一些比盖洛普或皮尤民意调查更快的谷歌搜索来跟踪其中一些变化。

Seth Stephens-Davidowitz has shown that, for example, if you Google for various racist or sexist terms that are used in jokes, you get a pretty good barometer of racism that people may not be willing to admit to in public.

塞思·斯蒂芬斯·大卫维茨(Seth Stephens-Davidowitz)表示,例如,如果你在谷歌上搜索笑话中使用的各种种族主义或性别歧视术语,你会得到一个很好的种族主义晴雨表,人们可能不愿意在公开场合承认这一点。

If you do that, you don’t see a sudden U‑turn in the popularity of racist jokes in the last, say, six months.

如果你这样做,你就不会看到过去(比如六个月)种族主义笑话的受欢迎程度突然发生转变。

I think it is more a question of people who kept their attitudes to themselves now feeling that they’re allowed to get away with it, that some of the taboos have been broken.

我认为这更多的是那些对自己保持态度的人现在感觉他们可以逃脱惩罚,一些禁忌已经被打破了。

Whether they will reassert themselves with the decline of Trump, we don’t know.

我们不知道他们是否会随着特朗普的衰落而重新崛起。

I kind of hope so.

我有点希望如此。

I think there is a benign taboo against overtly racist, misogynistic, and homophobic language.

我认为对于公然的种族主义、厌恶女性和恐同的语言存在着良性的禁忌。

There are ugly attitudes, and there always will be: there is a benevolent hypocrisy and taboo where there are certain things that you just don’t say in public because that does legitimate them.

丑陋的态度是有的,而且永远都会有:有一种仁慈的虚伪和禁忌,有些事情你只是不会在公共场合说,因为这确实使它们合法化。

They can be threatened.

他们可能会受到威胁。

We saw that with taboo words for sexuality starting in the ’60s.

我们从 20 世纪 60 年代开始就在性禁忌词汇中看到了这一点。

Words that you could not say in print or on the airwaves are now common.

无法在印刷品或广播中说出的话语现在很常见。

That could happen with racist and homophobic terms.

种族主义和恐同术语可能会发生这种情况。

I hope not.

我希望不会。

Too early to tell.

还为时过早。

COWEN

Next question.

下一个问题。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

Thanks to both of you for inviting us to an intelligent, literate conversation that I’d like to imagine you always have over almost every meal.

感谢你们邀请我们进行一场充满智慧、有文化的对话,我想你们几乎每顿饭都会进行这样的对话。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

I’d like to hear you speak about just how central language is to being human.

我想听你谈谈语言对于人类的重要性。

I’m thinking of J.

我在想J。

L.

L。

Austin and John Searle on speech acts in a social constructed world all the way up to — I think it’s called — the Whorf hypothesis, that the language we use limits what we can experience and do.

奥斯汀和约翰·塞尔关于社会建构世界中的言语行为一直到“我认为这被称为”沃尔夫假说,即我们使用的语言限制了我们可以体验和做的事情。

PINKER

I think language is central to everything else that’s human.

我认为语言是人类其他一切事物的核心。

I think that it has very much figured in our evolution by making social cooperation that much easier — namely, with language, for example, you can make an agreement to do a favor for someone now in exchange for a very different payback or a payback very far in the future, something you can’t do when you’re just bartering physical goods.

我认为它在我们的进化中发挥了重要作用,使社会合作变得更加容易——也就是说,例如,通过语言,你可以达成协议,现在为某人提供帮助,以换取完全不同的回报或在很远的将来的回报,这是你在交换实物时无法做到的。

I think that since our species lives on information, information is the ultimate trade good because it is a nonrivaled good.

我认为,由于我们的物种以信息为生,信息是最终的贸易商品,因为它是一种无与伦比的商品。

You can share it with someone else without being deprived of it yourself.

您可以与其他人分享,而您自己也不会被剥夺。

It can be multiplied, and that makes it the ideal medium of reciprocity, conferring a large benefit to someone else at a small cost to oneself.

它可以成倍增加,这使其成为理想的互惠媒介,以自己较小的成本为他人带来巨大利益。

It lubricates the kind of cooperation that is hyperdeveloped in humans.

它促进了人类高度发达的合作。

It’s also, I think, tied in with the fact that we’re a technological species, that we live by our wits, by our know‑how.

我认为,这也与我们是一个技术物种这一事实有关,我们靠智慧和专业知识生活。

That with language, if you make a discovery, you can spare other people from having to remake that discovery.

有了语言,如果你有了一个发现,你就可以让其他人不必重复这个发现。

You can pool innovations that are invented across a huge catchment area.

您可以汇集在广阔的流域内发明的创新成果。

I don’t, though, endorse a version of linguistic determinism associated with Benjamin Whorf and Edward Sapir, according to which we can only think thoughts for which there are words in our language.

不过,我并不赞同与本杰明·沃尔夫和爱德华·萨皮尔有关的语言决定论,根据这种观点,我们只能思考在我们的语言中存在单词的思想。

If that were true, then you’d have to ask how did language originate in the first place.

如果这是真的,那么你就必须问语言最初是如何起源的。

It wasn’t given to us by Martians.

它不是火星人给我们的。

We developed language because we had ideas that existed prior to our being able to articulate them, for which we coined words.

我们之所以发展出语言,是因为我们在能够表达出来之前就已经有了一些想法,为此我们创造了单词。

Language is always changing.

语言总是在变化。

Again, this gets back to Hayek’s notion of spontaneous order and distributed intelligence.

这又回到了哈耶克的自发秩序和分布式智能的概念。

Even though any given language is an exquisite system for conveying complex thoughts, it was never designed by a committee.

尽管任何特定的语言都是传达复杂思想的精致系统,但它从来都不是由委员会设计的。

It emerged because millions of people had ideas that they struggled to express.

它的出现是因为数百万人有他们难以表达的想法。

They would coin a bit of jargon.

他们会创造一些行话。

They would invent a circumlocution.

他们会发明一种迂回说法。

It would go viral.

它会像病毒一样传播开来。

It would become entrenched as part of the language.

它将成为语言的一部分,根深蒂固。

Languages, of course, are always continuing that cycle.

当然,语言总是在延续这个循环。

Our language is different from the language of the Founders, which is different from the language of Shakespeare.

我们的语言不同于开国元勋的语言,也不同于莎士比亚的语言。

The fact that we’re always adding to the language, we’re losing bits of the language, as we talked about in the case of irregular verbs, shows that it isn’t itself the medium of thought.

事实上,我们总是在向语言添加内容,但我们正在失去语言的一些部分,正如我们在不规则动词的情况下所讨论的那样,这表明它本身并不是思维的媒介。

You can always invent a circumlocution if your language doesn’t have a preexisting word.

如果你的语言没有预先存在的单词,你总是可以发明一种迂回说法。

A lot of the brain is devoted to forms of thinking that are not just trading in words, not just assembling words.

大脑的很多部分都致力于思考的形式,这些思维形式不仅仅是文字交易,也不仅仅是文字组合。

I think Whorf went too far, but there’s no doubt that language is an inherent part of what makes us unusual as a species.

我认为沃尔夫太过分了,但毫无疑问,语言是我们作为一个物种与众不同的固有部分。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

And unique?

并且独特?

PINKER

Yeah, I would say unique.

是的,我会说独特。

Other species communicate, but grammatical language in which the meaning of the combination depends on the arrangement of the meaning of the parts and, moreover, that the number of such combinations is unlimited — this goes back to the idea of recursion, which is nowadays often associated with Noam Chomsky — is something that, without doing Procrustean stretching, I don’t think you see in other species.

其他物种可以进行交流,但在语法语言中,组合的含义取决于各部分含义的排列,而且这种组合的数量是无限的——这可以追溯到递归的概念,而递归的概念现在经常与诺姆·乔姆斯基联系在一起——如果不进行普罗克拉斯特式拉伸,我认为你在其他物种中看不到这种东西。

There are some aspects of birdsong that are combinatorial, but birdsong has no semantics.

鸟鸣的某些方面是组合的,但鸟鸣没有语义。

That is, the calls don’t mean anything.

也就是说,这些电话没有任何意义。

You can have some kinds of primate calls where maybe if you have two of them they’re in one order, versus not the other.

你可能会听到某些灵长类动物的叫声,如果你有两种叫声,那么它们可能是按一种顺序排列的,而不是另一种。

There are different circumstances in which the primates utter them.

灵长类动物在不同的情况下会说出这些话。

I think it’s different enough from human grammatical language to say that it really is unique.

我认为它与人类的语法语言有足够的不同,可以说它确实是独一无二的。

COWEN

Next question.

下一个问题。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

All right.

好的。

Thank you, Dr. Pinker, for a fascinating discussion.

谢谢 Pinker 博士的精彩讨论。

While we’re going through this, thinking about language, society, culture, in your answer, your response to Tyler’s question on the likelihood of a catastrophic event, someone being willing to go out and take such extreme measures, it seems like all this discussion is leading to us thinking that there’s a group effect or a cultural effect on the individual through evolution.

当我们经历这个问题时,思考语言、社会、文化,在你的回答中,你对泰勒关于灾难性事件可能性的问题的回答,有人愿意出去采取如此极端的措施,似乎所有这些讨论都让我们认为,通过进化,存在群体效应或文化对个体的影响。

I’m much more less aggressive than my ancestors from tens of thousands of years ago were.

与几万年前的祖先相比,我的攻击性要小得多。

Do you agree with the theory of group selection?

你同意群体选择理论吗?

Think E.

认为E。

O.

奥。

Wilson or Jonathan Haidt.

威尔逊或乔纳森·海特。

Do you think that’s a correct response to what we were talking about?

您认为这是对我们所讨论内容的正确回应吗?

PINKER

There are two ideas that I think you broached here.

我认为您在这里提出了两个想法。

One of them is groups as the unit of analysis in evolution and natural selection.

其中之一是作为进化和自然选择分析单位的群体。

If you Google “false allure of group selection” or “Pinker group selection,” you’ll see that I have pretty strong opinions on that.

如果你用谷歌搜索“群体选择的虚假诱惑”或“平克群体选择”,你会发现我对此有非常强烈的看法。

I think that the idea of group selection is a big blunder.

我认为群体选择的想法是一个很大的错误。

No, I don’t think that there is a Darwinian process of differential survival of replicators that applies to groups in the way that it applies to genes.

不,我不认为存在复制基因差异生存的达尔文过程,它适用于群体,就像适用于基因一样。

I think it’s a bad analogy.

我认为这是一个糟糕的类比。

You referred specifically to the case of violence.

你特别提到了暴力案件。

A frequently asked question that I get is, Are we literally evolving to become less violent in the biologist sense, that genes that encourage violence are becoming less common in the gene pool?

我经常被问到的一个问题是,从生物学家的角度来看,我们真的在进化中变得不那么暴力吗?鼓励暴力的基因在基因库中变得越来越不常见?

I doubt it, but I can’t rule it out.

我对此表示怀疑,但也不能排除这一点。

A fellow economist, Gregory Clark, argued that in Europe between the Middle Ages and the present, in a process that I actually wrote about in terms of the quite spectacular declines in rates of violence, he speculated might have been helped along by a genetic change.

一位经济学家格雷戈里·克拉克(Gregory Clark)认为,在中世纪至今的欧洲,在我所写的暴力发生率大幅下降的过程中,他推测可能是基因变化的帮助。

I’m a little more skeptical, but I can’t rule it out.

我有点怀疑,但我不能排除这种可能性。

The reason that I’m skeptical is that you can see declines of violence that take place on time scales that couldn’t possibly be due to Darwinian natural selection.

我持怀疑态度的原因是,你可以看到暴力的减少在时间尺度上发生,这不可能是由于达尔文自然选择造成的。

For example, the fact that Germany went from the world’s most militaristic culture to the world’s most pacifist culture in pretty much a generation, or that the American homicide rate fell in half in eight years.

例如,德国在几乎一代人的时间里从世界上最军国主义的文化变成了世界上最和平主义的文化,或者美国的凶杀率在八年内下降了一半。

There you didn’t have a turnover in generations that occurred long enough for it to be a genetic change.

在那里,世代更替的时间不够长,不足以构成基因变化。

We know that the overt violent behavior can change really, really quickly.

我们知道,公开的暴力行为可以非常非常快地改变。

That just means that we don’t need to invoke a genetic change for reductions of similar magnitude that we see in history.

这只是意味着我们不需要通过基因改变来实现历史上类似程度的减少。

COWEN

Next question.

下一个问题。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

I was wondering if you had any thoughts on the evolution of fashion.

我想知道你对时尚的演变有什么想法吗?

It seems like language has much stronger network effects than fashion does, and it’s easier to mix and match parts of fashion from different cultures.

语言似乎比时尚具有更强的网络效应,并且更容易混合和搭配来自不同文化的时尚部分。

As we go forward and culture continues to conjoin across different continents, are we heading towards a global super‑fashion, or are the cultural meanings of fashion too embodied and are we going to maintain different circles of fashion still?

随着我们前进,不同大陆的文化不断融合,我们是否正在走向全球超级时尚,或者时尚的文化意义是否过于体现,我们是否仍将维持不同的时尚圈子?

PINKER

It is a fascinating question.

这是一个令人着迷的问题。

I think we are seeing a kind of globalization of fashion, combined with a globalization of youth culture.

我认为我们正在看到一种时尚的全球化,与青年文化的全球化相结合。

That you can go to an awful lot of parts of the world and see similar baggy shorts in eras when baggy shorts are in fashion.

在宽松短裤流行的时代,你可以去世界上很多地方看到类似的宽松短裤。

Or, for that matter, in elite fashion as well.

或者,就此而言,在精英时尚中也是如此。

It’s actually quite astonishing what percentage of male elites wear neckties and jackets not too different from this.

事实上,令人惊讶的是,有多少比例的男性精英穿着与此相差无几的领带和夹克。

It is surprising why there’s such a reduction in diversity of fashion.

令人惊讶的是为什么时尚的多样性如此减少。

At the same time as that, you have this globalization.

与此同时,全球化也随之而来。

There’s also a churning over time.

随着时间的推移,也会出现翻腾。

There is an interesting theory with an analogy from biology, biological evolution, of frequency‑dependent selection.

有一个有趣的理论与生物学、生物进化和频率依赖选择进行类比。

This goes back to the art historian Quentin Bell, who in turn was influenced by Thorstein Veblen.

这可以追溯到艺术史学家昆汀·贝尔,他又受到托尔斯坦·凡勃伦的影响。

That in the competition for status, in differentiating yourself as an elite, from the hoi polloi or the rabble, you want a look that’s different enough that distinguishes you.

在地位的竞争中,在将自己与平民或乌合之众区分开来的过程中,你需要一种足够不同的外观来让你与众不同。

In Veblen’s day that took the form of sumptuosity.

在凡勃伦时代,这表现为奢华。

That is, fine fabrics and tailored suits that were unfakeable enough that you were broadcasting the information that “I can afford things that you can’t, and you can’t fake them.”

也就是说,精美的面料和量身定制的西装足够无法伪造,以至于你在传播这样的信息:“我买得起你买不起的东西,而且你无法伪造它们。”

With advances in clothing manufacture and everything manufacture, with everything becoming cheaper, you can’t differentiate yourself through sumptuosity and riches.

随着服装制造和一切制造的进步,一切都变得更便宜,你无法通过奢华和财富来脱颖而出。

Also, because of democratization and informalization, it’s kind of tacky to look like you belong in a Donald Trump hotel.

此外,由于民主化和非正式化,看起来你属于唐纳德·特朗普酒店有点俗气。

PINKER

That kind of flashy ostentation has lost value as a status symbol.

这种浮华的炫耀已经失去了作为身份象征的价值。

Instead, there’s a value placed in simply being out of the mainstream enough that there’s something special about you, combined with enough of an aura of confidence that it’s not just that you’re hopelessly unhip.

相反,脱离主流是有价值的,因为你有一些特别的东西,再加上足够的自信光环,这不仅仅是你无可救药的不时髦。

Rather, you’re seen as setting the next trend.

相反,您被视为引领下一个趋势。

When everyone has long hair, you show up with a crew cut, or vice versa.

当每个人都有长发时,你就会留着平头,反之亦然。

When everyone has fat lapels, you have skinny lapels.

当每个人都有肥翻领时,你就有瘦翻领。

Or long skirt length, or short skirt length.

或长裙长,或短裙长。

People who have some claim to already being in the elite will then reinforce it with an unusual look, which then trickles down.

那些自称已经属于精英阶层的人会用一种不寻常的外表来强化这种观念,然后这种观念就会慢慢渗透下去。

When it starts to be sold in Target, then the elite have to jump to yet another look.

当它开始在 Target 出售时,精英们就不得不转向另一种外观。

So you get a kind of churning.

所以你会感到一种翻腾。

This is unlike language in that it may not have a semiotics, in the sense that there’s a lot of commentary on fashion, on what are you trying to communicate by your long hair, your short hair, your fat lapels, your skinny lapels — and the answer may be nothing.

这与语言不同,因为它可能没有符号学,从某种意义上说,有很多关于时尚的评论,关于你想通过你的长发、短发、肥翻领、瘦翻领来传达什么——而答案可能是什么都没有。

That is, all you’re communicating is “It’s different from what you’re wearing, and I’m getting away with it.”

也就是说,你所传达的只是“这和你穿的不一样,我不会这么做。”

PINKER

It’s similar to cases in evolution — often in parasite‑host coevolution, where simply being rare is an advantage.

这与进化中的情况类似——通常在寄生虫与宿主的共同进化中,稀有就是一种优势。

When being rare is an advantage, paradoxically it starts to become more common, meaning that you then have to look to something completely different that’s rare again.

当稀有成为一种优势时,矛盾的是它开始变得更加普遍,这意味着你必须再次寻找完全不同的稀有东西。

That was Bell’s analysis of fashion, and I think that will continue.

这就是贝尔对时尚的分析,我认为这种分析将会继续下去。

COWEN

Two more questions.

还有两个问题。

One.

一。

AUDIENCE MEMBER

Thank you very much for a fascinating talk.

非常感谢您的精彩演讲。

I’d like to ask you very quickly about language acquisition in infants and then language learning in adults, and finally the implications for neurological development or deterioration.

我想快速询问您有关婴儿语言习得、成人语言学习以及最后对神经发育或退化的影响的问题。

First off, in China generally it’s recognized that infants, long before they can do the labials or fricatives, and do ba or ma, they get the tone correct.

首先,在中国,人们普遍认为婴儿早在会发唇音、擦音、“ba”或“ma”之前就已经掌握了正确的声调。

Speech pathologists generally in China for five- and six‑, seven‑year‑olds, they correct for the ba, and the consonants or the vowels; very, very seldom or almost never for the tones.

中国的言语病理学家通常针对五岁、六岁、七岁的孩子,纠正“ba”、辅音或元音;非常非常很少或几乎从不使用音调。

Paradoxically, the US government State Department and the intelligence agencies spend a tremendous amount of money putting people through two‑year, intensive programs in Chinese.

矛盾的是,美国国务院和情报机构花费巨额资金让人们接受为期两年的强化中文课程。

The thing that maybe one person in a thousand gets are the tones, the thing that every Chinese infant automatically gets and never forgets, in a sense encoded in indelibly.

也许千分之一的人会听到的东西就是声调,每个中国婴儿都会自然而然地获得并且永远不会忘记的东西,从某种意义上说,这是不可磨灭的。

Do you think that, in a sense, at some point at five, or six, or seven there is a modular capability, a neurological capability to hear, mimic, and reproduce?

你是否认为,从某种意义上说,在五岁、六岁或七岁的某个时刻,存在一种模块化的能力,一种听觉、模仿和再现的神经能力?

That, in a sense, gets shut off in some way around the age of 15, 20?

从某种意义上说,这种感觉在 15、20 岁左右就会以某种方式被关闭?

For the State Department and the intelligence agencies, the median age for beginning Chinese is 35 or 36.

对于国务院和情报机构来说,开始学习汉语的平均年龄是 35 岁或 36 岁。

A quixotic venture, to say the least.

至少可以说,这是一次不切实际的冒险。

PINKER

There is evidence for at least probably several critical periods, or at least sensitive periods, in language acquisition.

有证据表明,语言习得过程中至少有几个关键时期,或者至少是敏感时期。

In particular phonology — that is, the sound pattern of the language, the accent — including in the case of Chinese tones, although that also blends into the morphology, that is, the distinctions among words.

特别是音韵学——即语言的声音模式、重音——包括汉语声调,尽管它也融入了形态学,即单词之间的区别。

That that’s the most sensitive.

这是最敏感的。

Often people who are perfectly articulate and fluent in a second language will give themselves away by their accent because the mastery of the accent seems to be more dependent on being of tender age when you acquire it than, say, syntax or vocabulary.

通常,那些能够完美表达和流利使用第二语言的人会通过他们的口音暴露自己,因为对口音的掌握似乎更依赖于你掌握口音时的年龄,而不是语法或词汇。

For that matter, for vocabulary there is no critical period.

就此而言,词汇没有关键期。

We learn new words all our lives, including names for people and places.

我们一生都在学习新单词,包括人名和地名。

Syntax may be somewhere in between.

语法可能介于两者之间。

In fact, I have a paper that’s in one of these interminable cycles of revision and review, doing plea‑bargaining with journal referees to please publish our paper, which suggests, as you speculate, that when it comes to grammar, syntax, and vocabulary, probably the beginning of the end for mastery comes in the teenage years.

事实上,我有一篇论文正处于这些无休止的修改和审查周期中,与期刊审稿人进行辩诉交易以请求发表我们的论文,这表明,正如你推测的那样,当涉及到语法、句法和词汇时,掌握的终结可能会在青少年时期开始。

That something happens starting around the age of 15 or so that makes it harder to achieve native mastery if that’s when you begin to learn a language.

从 15 岁左右开始,如果你开始学习一门语言,就会变得更难掌握母语。

In general, younger is better.

一般来说,越年轻越好。

Of course, there are 6,000 languages.

当然,有6000种语言。

You don’t necessarily know when you have a child if they’re going to grow up to be a Chinese diplomat or do business in China, so you don’t know if it’s Chinese that you should start them with early, or some other language.

当你有了孩子时,你不一定知道他们长大后是否会成为一名中国外交官或在中国做生意,所以你不知道你应该尽早让他们学习中文,还是其他语言。

That, of course, might change.

当然,这种情况可能会改变。

But in general, there is a benefit to starting early.

但总的来说,早点开始是有好处的。

No one has identified a particular change in the plasticity of the brain that explains it.

没有人发现大脑可塑性的特定变化可以解释这一现象。

There probably is one, but we’re just ignorant of what, if anything, changes in the brain that makes it harder to learn a language to native levels of mastery if you begin too late.

可能有一个,但我们只是不知道大脑中的哪些变化(如果有的话)会导致如果你开始得太晚,就很难将语言学习到母语水平。

COWEN

Last question is from Bryan Caplan.

最后一个问题来自布莱恩·卡普兰。

Steven, at the end of your answer, please conclude everything by telling us what your next book will be about.

史蒂文,在您回答的最后,请通过告诉我们您的下一本书的内容来结束所有内容。

BRYAN CAPLAN

When Tyler argues about the power of reason, usually I’m taking your view, but when I was sitting in the front row and looking at the titles of your books, I was particularly thinking about The Blank Slate.

当泰勒争论理性的力量时,通常我会采纳你的观点,但当我坐在前排看着你的书名时,我特别想到了《白板石》。

It seems like it’s an entire book about how really smart people are really wrong about something.

这似乎是一本关于真正聪明的人在某些事情上是如何真正错误的书。

Many of your other books I think also could be described in that way.

我认为你的许多其他书籍也可以这样描述。

The smartest people in the world who think about the subjects the most are just deeply misguided.

世界上最聪明、对这些问题思考最多的人都被深深地误导了。

What do you think is going wrong there, and more generally, what is wrong with academia that there’s so few Steven Pinkers out there?

你认为那里出了什么问题,更一般地说,学术界出了什么问题,以至于史蒂文·平克(Steven Pinkers)如此之少?

PINKER

I won’t answer the last question, not in those terms.

我不会回答最后一个问题,不是这样的。

I think that there is an intellectual equivalent of tribalism.

我认为在思想上存在着与部落主义相当的东西。

Jon Haidt writes about it.

乔恩·海特 (Jon Haidt) 对此进行了描述。

You’ve written about it.

你已经写过相关内容了。

We tend to think of intellectual disagreements like the Red Sox versus the Yankees.

我们倾向于想到像红袜队与洋基队这样的智力分歧。

It’s deeply pleasurable to read arguments that support a view that you already hold.

阅读支持您已经持有的观点的论据是非常令人愉快的。

It’s really annoying to read something that calls one of your beliefs into question.

读到一些让你的信念受到质疑的东西真的很烦人。

Ideally, what we want is an arena in which the rules of the game make it so that no matter how emotionally tied you are to your belief, if it’s wrong, it’ll be shown to be wrong and it’ll just be too embarrassing to hold on to it or at least for other people to hold on to it indefinitely.

理想情况下,我们想要的是一个游戏规则所规定的舞台,这样无论你在情感上与你的信念有多么紧密的联系,如果它是错误的,它就会被证明是错误的,而坚持它或至少让其他人无限期地坚持它会太尴尬。

That’s what I consider to be the ideal of what science is all about, and intellectual discourse in general.

我认为这就是科学的理想,也是一般知识分子话语的理想。

When it works, how to make it work better, are really good questions.

当它发挥作用时,如何使其更好地发挥作用,这确实是一个很好的问题。

Certainly, there are disturbing signs that the process in some ways is getting worse.

当然,有一些令人不安的迹象表明,这一过程在某些方面正在变得更糟。

I see Greg Lukianoff is here, the director of Foundation for Individual Rights in Education, which does a brilliant job in combating some of the restrictions on free speech that we’re seeing in university campuses, which would be a paradigm case of going in the wrong direction in terms of setting up rules that allow the truth to come out in the long term.

我看到格雷格·卢基安诺夫(Greg Lukianoff)在这里,他是个人教育权利基金会的主任,该基金会在打击我们在大学校园中看到的一些言论自由限制方面做得非常出色,从长远来看,这将是在制定允许真相大白的规则方面走向错误方向的典型案例。

I’m hoping that naming and shaming and arguments will give free speech a greater foothold in academia.

我希望点名、羞辱和争论能让言论自由在学术界获得更大的立足点。

The fact that academia is not the only arena in which debates are held, that we also have think tanks and we also have a press.

事实上,学术界并不是唯一进行辩论的舞台,我们也有智囊团,我们也有媒体。

We also have the Internet.

我们也有互联网。

How we could set up the rules so that despite all of the quirks of human nature — such as intellectual tribalism — are overcome in our collective arena of discourses is, I think, an absolutely vital question, and I just don’t know the answer because we’re seeing at the same time — there was the hope 20 years ago that the Internet would break down the institutional barriers to the best ideas emerging.

我认为,我们如何制定规则,以便在我们的集体话语舞台上克服人性的所有怪癖——比如知识部落主义——是一个绝对重要的问题,我只是不知道答案,因为我们同时看到——20年前,人们希望互联网能够打破阻碍最佳创意出现的制度障碍。

It hasn’t worked out that way so far because we have the festering of conspiracy theories and all kinds of kooky beliefs that somehow the Internet has not driven out, but if anything has created space for.

到目前为止,事情还没有这样发展,因为我们的阴谋论和各种古怪的信仰都在溃烂,互联网还没有将它们驱逐出去,但如果说有什么东西创造了空间的话。

How we as a broader culture can tilt the rules or the norms of the expectations so that if you believe something that’s false, eventually you’ll be embarrassed about it, I wish I knew.

我希望我知道,作为一种更广泛的文化,我们如何能够改变规则或期望规范,以便如果你相信一些错误的东西,最终你会为此感到尴尬。

But that’s obviously what we ought to be striving for.

但这显然是我们应该努力的目标。

COWEN

And your next book?

你的下一本书呢?

PINKER

I’m writing a book whose tentative title is The New Enlightenment: A Manifesto for Science, Reason, Humanism, and Progress, where I argue that the enlightenment philosophers got a lot of stuff right, that a lot of their dreams are starting to come true, that a lot of dimensions of human well-being, when quantified as I tried to do in The Better Angels of Our Nature, turn out to be going in a good direction — that a lot of aspects of human life are improving.

我正在写一本书,暂定书名是《新启蒙运动:科学、理性、人文主义和进步的宣言》,在这本书中,我认为启蒙哲学家的很多观点都是对的,他们的很多梦想开始实现,人类福祉的很多方面,当我在《人性中的善良天使》中试图量化时,结果证明它们正朝着好的方向前进 ——人类生活的很多方面都在朝着好的方向发展。改善。

COWEN

Steven, thank you for such wonderful content.

史蒂文,谢谢你提供如此精彩的内容。

PINKER

Thank you, Tyler.

谢谢你,泰勒。