Steve Davies on Theresa May, Brexit, and Europe (BONUS)
OK Steve, you're the one with the British accent.
好吧，史蒂夫，你就是那个有英国口音的人。
Your country has called a snap election, June 8th.
贵国已于 6 月 8 日提前举行选举。
Why did Theresa May do it and how is it going to change the terms of Brexit?
特蕾莎·梅为何要这么做？它将如何改变英国脱欧的条款？
What's your take?
你怎么看？
The simple answer, of course, as for any politician is she's called it because she thinks she's going to win and improve her position in parliament.
当然，对于任何政治家来说，简单的答案是她之所以这么称呼她，是因为她认为自己会赢得胜利并提高自己在议会中的地位。
That's almost certainly going to be the case.
几乎肯定会出现这种情况。
As somebody very unkindly observed recently, Abraham Lincoln's prospects when he picked up those theater tickets were better than the Labor Party's right now.
正如最近有人非常不友善地评论的那样，亚伯拉罕·林肯在拿到这些戏票时的前景比现在工党的前景要好。
More seriously, there are two other reasons for her doing this.
更严重的是，她这样做还有另外两个原因。
One of them is that she wants a mandate for the kind of Brexit she wants to pursue.
其中之一是，她希望获得她想要推行的那种脱欧授权。
The big argument now, I think, in Britain is not should we leave the EU or not.
我认为，现在英国最大的争论不是我们是否应该离开欧盟。
I think the British public broadly thinks, “Yes, we've decided to do this.
我认为英国公众普遍认为：“是的，我们已经决定这样做。
Let's get on with it, now,” including most people who voted remain.
现在让我们继续吧，”包括大多数投票留下来的人。
The big argument now is what kind of Brexit should there be.
现在最大的争论是应该采取什么样的脱欧。
Should there be one which involves Britain remaining in what's called the European Economic Area, which would mean access to the regulatory regime, the single market, but also accepting a whole lot of European regulations, obviously, and also free movement of labor.
如果有一个涉及英国留在所谓的欧洲经济区，这将意味着进入监管制度、单一市场，但显然也接受大量欧洲法规，以及劳动力的自由流动。
Or should the UK go for a much more independent role, not apply for membership in the EEA?
或者英国应该寻求更加独立的角色，而不是申请加入欧洲经济区？
That seems to be the one that the government wants to go for, and so, she wants a mandate for that strategy.
这似乎是政府想要追求的目标，因此，她希望获得该战略的授权。
That's what the other party is going to argue against.
这就是另一方要反对的。
The other thing is she wants to stamp her own authority on the Conservative Party.
另一件事是她想在保守党中树立自己的权威。
I think what this election will do is complete a transformation of the Conservative Party away from what it has been for quite a long time, actually.
我认为这次选举将完成保守党的转变，使其摆脱长期以来的困境。
I think there's going to be a significant generational change in the British Conservative Party.
我认为英国保守党将会发生重大的代际变化。
It's going to become much more of a traditional Conservative Party than it has been for quite a long time.
与长期以来相比，它将变得更加传统的保守党。
What struck me about the announcement, which to many people, including in her own cabinet, seemed to have been a surprise, is that the pound went up 2.7 percent right after the announcement.
对于包括她自己的内阁在内的许多人来说，这一消息令我震惊的是，英镑在消息公布后立即上涨了 2.7%。
That's quite a significant currency movement.
这是一次相当重大的货币变动。
Is this the right way to think about that, that she had her own back ventures who are deep Euro skeptics.
这是正确的思考方式吗？她有自己的后营企业，而这些企业都是欧元深深的怀疑论者。
Now they're actually cut out of the equation.
现在他们实际上已经被排除在外了。
They don't have a veto any more so she can, on one hand, give a more centrist way of leaving the European Union.
他们不再拥有否决权，因此她一方面可以提供一种更加中间派的脱欧方式。
But on the other hand, due to your Fixed Term Parliaments Act, when the next election has to be, that doesn't have to be right after March of 2019.
但另一方面，根据《固定任期议会法》，下次选举不必在 2019 年 3 月之后举行。
She can, again, do the kind of Brexit she wants without the next election being a referendum on that.
她可以再次按照她想要的方式进行脱欧，而无需在下一次选举中进行全民公投。
That's now more put off.
现在更推迟了。
No one thought she would do this, but I see the pound going up.
没有人想到她会这么做，但我看到英镑上涨。
I think of those two factors.
我想到了这两个因素。
I actually think she's much smarter than all the people who thought this wouldn't happen.
事实上，我认为她比所有认为这不会发生的人聪明得多。
Don't you agree with that?
你不同意吗？
I agree completely with that.
我完全同意这一点。
She's postponed the…otherwise it would be very, very awkward.
她推迟了……否则会非常非常尴尬。
They would be having an election a year after the Brexit negotiations were concluded.
他们将在英国脱欧谈判结束一年后举行选举。
That could have been very, very difficult.
那可能非常非常困难。
Now, there's going to be a big gap.
现在看来，差距将会很大。
She will have time to sort out any problems that arise from the actual way in which we leave the EU.
她将有时间解决因我们离开欧盟的实际方式而出现的任何问题。
Also, a lot of people like the prospect of there being a decisive and conclusive result in the election, which there's clearly going to be, I would say.
此外，很多人都喜欢选举中出现决定性和决定性结果的前景，我想说，这显然将会出现。
Yes, I think it is probably a very smart move on her part.
是的，我认为这对她来说可能是一个非常明智的举动。
How hard will the hard Brexit be?
硬脱欧将会有多艰难？
Theresa May has said she's not going to take in migrants from the EU as a matter of law.
特蕾莎·梅表示，根据法律规定，她不会接纳来自欧盟的移民。
Some may be taken in on a discretionary basis.
有些可能会酌情接纳。
She's making that a campaign pledge.
她将此作为竞选承诺。
That would seem to rule out an arrangement like that of Switzerland or Norway and an EEA‑like arrangement.
这似乎排除了像瑞士或挪威这样的安排以及类似欧洲经济区的安排。
That seems to mean hard Brexit, since the European Union doesn't seem to be giving in.
这似乎意味着硬脱欧，因为欧盟似乎并没有屈服。
What rights will the London financial sector have to sell product on the continent?
伦敦金融业拥有哪些权利在非洲大陆销售产品？
What will the raise of tariff be?
关税将上涨多少？
Will it be default double UTO rates?
会默认双倍UTO费率吗？
What will it look like, say, five years from now?
比如说，五年后它会是什么样子？
That is very tricky because, in terms of…there's three different issues there.
这非常棘手，因为就……而言，存在三个不同的问题。
One of them is that the government is deciding to go for, I think, a very hard Brexit.
其中之一是，我认为政府决定实行非常硬的脱欧。
I agree with that.
我同意这一点。
Mainly, I think, for the very bad reason that they want to impose controls on immigration from the EU.
我认为，主要是出于一个非常糟糕的原因，他们想对来自欧盟的移民实施控制。
They can't do that if they're part of the European Economic Area because the European countries, quite reasonably, I think, say, “Look.
如果他们是欧洲经济区的一部分，他们就无法做到这一点，因为我认为欧洲国家很合理地说，“看。
There's a whole package deal here.
这里有一个完整的套餐。
Free movement of labor is part of the package deal.
劳动力自由流动是一揽子协议的一部分。
You can't pick and choose what you get.”
你无法挑选你所得到的东西。”
They've decided, I think very incorrectly, that they, for political reasons, they' don't want to do that.
我认为他们非常错误地决定，出于政治原因，他们不想这样做。
Therefore, they're not going to be part of the EEA.
因此，他们不会成为欧洲经济区的一部分。
Now, the question then is, well, are they going to be able to get a trade deal with the EU of the kind of Swiss type before the deadline, fall of 2019 when the two‑year ticking clock finally hits midnight?
现在的问题是，他们是否能够在截止日期（即 2019 年秋季，即两年的时钟最终敲响午夜）之前与欧盟达成瑞士式的贸易协议？
My own view is probably not, actually, because any deal has to be agreed by the 27 remaining members.
事实上，我自己的观点可能不是，因为任何协议都必须得到剩下的 27 个成员的同意。
Getting all 27 of them to agree to it is very, very difficult.
让 27 个人都同意是非常非常困难的。
Now, this is a case of British strategy coming back to bite them, if you will, because it was British strategy to expand the EU so enormously in the aftermath of the collapse of the Soviet Union.
现在，如果你愿意的话，这是英国战略反过来咬他们的一个例子，因为这是英国在苏联解体后如此大规模地扩大欧盟的战略。
As Sir Humphrey explained very lucidly to Jim Hacker in a very famous episode of “Yes, Prime Minister,” the reason for this was to actually make it so that nothing could get done.
正如汉弗莱爵士在著名的《是的，首相》一集中向吉姆·哈克非常清楚地解释的那样，这样做的原因是为了实际上做到这一点，这样就什么也做不了。
That was, indeed, the reason.
这确实是原因。
As he told Jim Hacker, “The goal of British foreign policy for a thousand years had been to bring about a disunited Europe,” which is completely true.
正如他告诉吉姆·哈克（Jim Hacker）的那样，“一千年来英国外交政策的目标就是造成一个分裂的欧洲”，这是完全正确的。
The problem is, therefore, I think we're not going to have a deal at the end of the two years.
因此，问题是，我认为我们不会在两年后达成协议。
I think we are probably going to need either to revert to WTO rules or, I think more likely, we will have an interim agreement put in place.
我认为我们可能需要恢复世贸组织规则，或者我认为更有可能的是，我们将制定一项临时协议。
That's where the hard argument will be, about what that interim agreement is.
这就是关于临时协议的内容的激烈争论的地方。
Now, as to the city of London, there's a lot of talk at the moment the city of London is going to lose its so called passporting rights, which means that it can conduct business in Euros.
现在，至于伦敦市，目前有很多传言称伦敦市将失去所谓的通行权，这意味着它可以用欧元开展业务。
Last year, before the referendum, the city of London did just under a trillion Euros worth of Euro denomination business.
去年，在公投之前，伦敦市的欧元业务价值接近一万亿欧元。
It's a lot of business.
这是很多生意。
If they were to lose that, that would be an enormous blow to them.
如果他们失去了这一点，那对他们来说将是一个巨大的打击。
The European Central Bank would dearly like to yank that privilege because it didn't want them to have it in the first place.
欧洲央行非常想取消这种特权，因为它一开始就不希望他们拥有这种特权。
They have nowhere to put it.
他们无处可放。
They have nowhere to put it.
他们无处可放。
The problem, for the Europeans, however, is that you can't build a major financial center like the city of London in somewhere like Frankfurt or Paris overnight.
然而，对于欧洲人来说，问题在于你不可能在一夜之间在法兰克福或巴黎这样的地方建立起像伦敦这样的主要金融中心。
It's a much more drawn out process.
这是一个更加漫长的过程。
I think, in the medium term at any rate, the city of London probably will be given passporting privileges but in the more medium term a lot of business will shift to the continent.
我认为，无论如何，从中期来看，伦敦市可能会获得通行特权，但从中期来看，许多业务将转移到非洲大陆。
Frankfurt, primarily, but also Paris.
主要是法兰克福，还有巴黎。
You're talking about a 15‑year kind of time horizon than that, rather than an abrupt cliff edge transition.
你谈论的是 15 年的时间范围，而不是突然的悬崖边缘过渡。
Now, if you don't consider me too rude, I'd like to ask if your country is falling apart?
现在，如果你不认为我太无礼的话，我想问一下，你们的国家是否正在分崩离析？
In Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon is asking for, some would say demanding, a second referendum.
在苏格兰，尼古拉·斯特金要求（有些人会说要求很高）举行第二次公投。
You could argue that ever since devolution the attention of the Scots is focused on their own politics in a way that makes them feel much more separate from England.
你可能会说，自从权力下放以来，苏格兰人的注意力就集中在他们自己的政治上，这让他们感觉与英格兰更加分离。
That won't change.
那不会改变。
Of course, they feel that their votes were disregarded in the decision for Brexit.
当然，他们认为脱欧决定中他们的选票被忽视了。
Brexit is now quite hard.
英国脱欧现在相当困难。
SMP, the independence party, has done very well in the most recent elections.
独立党SMP在最近的选举中表现出色。
It's at least…we're not sure how well they'll do this time around.
至少……我们不确定他们这次会做得如何。
Is Great Britain going to splinter because Scotland will leave?
英国会因为苏格兰脱欧而分裂吗？
You might say, “Oh, that would be insane.
你可能会说：“哦，那太疯狂了。
What currency would they use?
他们会使用什么货币？
How would they bail out their banking system?
他们将如何救助银行系统？
The price of oil is down,” but given that the United Kingdom voted to leave the European Union, which many people advised against, it seems we can't dismiss the possibility that having said A one then says B.
石油价格下跌了”，但考虑到英国公投退出欧盟（很多人都反对），我们似乎不能排除说完 A 又说 B 的可能性。
Is Scotland going to leave?
苏格兰要退出吗？
Yes or no?
是还是不是？
I would like to say yes but I think no.
我想说是，但我认为不是。
You want them to go.
你想让他们走。
Oh, I definitely do.
哦，我绝对愿意。
Tell us why.
告诉我们原因。
My attitude and the attitude of the majority of English is that it would be pretty good to get rid of the bloody Scots.
我的态度和大多数英国人的态度是，摆脱该死的苏格兰人会很好。
If there was a referendum on Scottish independence purely in England there would be a clear majority in favor.
如果纯粹在英格兰就苏格兰独立举行公投，将会得到明显多数的支持。
Audience Member: With or without the oil in the North Sea?
观众：北海有石油还是没有石油？
That's a diminishing asset anyway, actually.
实际上，无论如何，这是一项不断减少的资产。
The production rate loss is climbing dramatically.
生产率损失急剧攀升。
I think Nicola Sturgeon has a perfect right to call another referendum because she did say that if there was a major change in circumstances they would call another one.
我认为尼古拉·斯特金完全有权再次举行公投，因为她确实说过，如果情况发生重大变化，他们将再次举行公投。
Quite clearly, there's been a major change in circumstances.
很明显，情况发生了重大变化。
As you rightly say, Scotland's view on Brexit is radically different from that of England and Wales.
正如你所说，苏格兰对英国脱欧的看法与英格兰和威尔士截然不同。
Now, whether or not she will get a vote in favor of leaving the UK is more open to question.
现在，她是否会获得支持离开英国的投票更有待商榷。
Because the problem there is that leaving the UK, if the UK is still in the EU, is not quite as frightening as the prospect of leaving the UK if the UK is outside of the EU because, A, that requires the EU, if the goal of it is the same, the EU should give Scotland membership.
因为问题在于，如果英国仍在欧盟，离开英国并不像英国在欧盟之外离开英国那么可怕，因为，A，这需要欧盟，如果目标相同，欧盟应该给予苏格兰成员资格。
Spain, in particular, is probably going to veto Scotland becoming a member of the EU because they do not want to give encouragement to separatist movements for obvious reasons.
尤其是西班牙，可能会否决苏格兰加入欧盟，因为出于显而易见的原因，他们不想鼓励分裂主义运动。
Also, the other problem is that would mean a hard border between England and Scotland.
此外，另一个问题是，这将意味着英格兰和苏格兰之间存在硬边界。
That's a lot more scary than the prospect of being two separate countries but with still no hard border at all.
这比成为两个独立国家但仍然没有硬边界的前景要可怕得多。
The Scots, as a nation, are actually very “small c” conservative.
苏格兰人作为一个国家实际上是非常“小c”的保守派。
I think that, actually, if push comes to shove they will very narrowly vote to remain in the union.
我认为，实际上，如果到了紧要关头，他们将以微弱优势投票决定留在联盟。
Actually, personally, I wish they would vote to leave.
事实上，就我个人而言，我希望他们投票脱欧。
All joking aside, I think there's a very good reason for that, which is…two good reasons.
抛开开玩笑不谈，我认为这是有充分理由的，那就是……两个很好的理由。
One is that my general view is that small to medium sized countries, countries up to about seven million people, empirically do better, have better governance, better economic policy than large countries because public choice problems are less severe in small countries.
一是我的总体观点是，中小国家，即人口约七百万的国家，从经验上看，它们比大国做得更好，拥有更好的治理和更好的经济政策，因为小国家的公共选择问题不那么严重。
The other thing is that Scotland has very, very severe social problems.
另一件事是苏格兰有非常非常严重的社会问题。
Basically, greater Glasgow.
基本上是大格拉斯哥。
They're not going to address those problems in a mature way as long as they can blame them all on the English.
只要他们能将所有问题归咎于英国人，他们就不会以成熟的方式解决这些问题。
At the moment, all the problems of Glasgow are pushed onto the English taxpayer, whereas if it was the Edinburgh taxpayer who was having to pick up the tab that would concentrate some minds very sharply.
目前，格拉斯哥的所有问题都被推给了英国纳税人，而如果是爱丁堡纳税人来买单，那就会引起一些人的高度关注。
If any of you know anything about the rivalry between Glasgow and Edinburgh, well, you realize that something would be done to sort out Glasgow pretty quickly if that was the case.
如果你们中的任何人对格拉斯哥和爱丁堡之间的竞争有所了解，那么您就会意识到，如果是这种情况，将会很快采取措施来解决格拉斯哥的问题。
I think Scotland actually would have to sort its own problems out in a way that it's not going to do if it can blame everything on the hated English.
我认为苏格兰实际上必须以一种方式来解决自己的问题，如果它可以将一切都归咎于令人讨厌的英格兰人，那么它就不会这么做。
I would actually wish that they would vote to leave but I fear that they will narrowly decide to stay with us.
我实际上希望他们投票脱欧，但我担心他们会勉强决定留在我们身边。
Now, on the other hand, Ireland, which I know…
现在，另一方面，爱尔兰，我知道……
The Shetland Islands first.
首先是设得兰群岛。
There's a growing separatist movement in the Shetland Islands.
设得兰群岛的分离主义运动愈演愈烈。
There's now 400 people in support.
目前已有400人支持。
Are you hoping for them to leave Scotland?
你希望他们离开苏格兰吗？
I would.
我会的。
Actually, yes, I would.
事实上，是的，我会的。
The Shetlands would have a wonderful future as a Nordic little island.
作为北欧小岛，设得兰群岛将拥有美好的未来。
That's where the oil is, actually.
事实上，这就是石油所在的地方。
The Forties and the other two major fields are both in Shetland waters.
Forties 和另外两个主要油田均位于设得兰群岛水域。
Shetland actually, historically, are a part of Scotland, a part of Norway.
设得兰群岛实际上在历史上是苏格兰的一部分，也是挪威的一部分。
Came to Scotland just a few hundred years ago.
几百年前来到苏格兰。
My people, the Irish, now there's no border whatsoever between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.
我的人民，爱尔兰人，现在北爱尔兰和爱尔兰共和国之间没有任何边界。
When you drive from one to the other the sign changes from kilometers to miles.
当您从一个地方开车到另一个地方时，标志会从公里变为英里。
You get a different cell phone signal, but so many people from Ireland proper now have summer homes in the north or they're connected in some way.
你会收到不同的手机信号，但现在有很多爱尔兰人在北部拥有避暑别墅，或者他们以某种方式保持联系。
There are actually homes built that straddle the border.
实际上有些房屋是跨越边境建造的。
You go from one room of the house to another and you go from one country to another.
你从房子的一个房间到另一个房间，从一个国家到另一个国家。
There's been peace since the Belfast agreement.
自贝尔法斯特协议签订以来，一直处于和平状态。
Is it now not truly inconceivable to reinstitute a hard border between the two Irelands?
现在在两个爱尔兰之间重新建立硬边界难道不是真的不可想象吗？
What will be done because of this fact?
由于这个事实，将会做什么？
Will we not end up with a border being between Belfast and Heathrow Airport rather than along Donegal County between the two Irelands.
我们最终会不会把边界设在贝尔法斯特和希思罗机场之间，而不是沿着两个爱尔兰之间的多尼戈尔县。
Tell us.
告诉我们。
I think what will happen is that the Irish government and the British government will agree that the Irish government will do the British government's dirty work and have all the border controls and checks in places like Waterford, Cork, and Dublin rather than…
我认为将会发生的事情是，爱尔兰政府和英国政府会同意，爱尔兰政府将承担英国政府的肮脏工作，并在沃特福德、科克和都柏林等地进行所有边境管制和检查，而不是……
Which is what happened before 1971, rather than what you suggest, because nobody, I think, in their right mind wants to have a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.
这就是 1971 年之前发生的事情，而不是你所建议的，因为我认为，没有人愿意在北爱尔兰和共和国之间建立硬边界。
It's a complete joke anyway.
无论如何，这完全是一个笑话。
The kind of things you talk about are not new.
你谈论的这类事情并不新鲜。
Even when the Troubles were going on, the block houses and the fences were around, it was still very hard to tell where the border was in places like and South .
即使在动乱发生的时候，街区房屋和栅栏都在周围，但像南方这样的地方，仍然很难判断边界在哪里。
Nobody really wants that.
没有人真正想要那样。
I actually think, though, while I think Scotland will stay in the UK I think there is quite a realistic chance that Northern Ireland will vote to join the Republic or join the Republic under some kind of condominium scheme.
不过，我实际上认为，虽然我认为苏格兰将留在英国，但我认为北爱尔兰很有可能投票加入共和国或根据某种公寓计划加入共和国。
I think that's actually quite possible because, for one thing, the demographics are changing.
我认为这实际上很有可能，因为一方面，人口结构正在发生变化。
The next census is probably going to show a Catholic majority in Northern Ireland, which doesn't necessarily mean a majority for union of the Republic but it's a major shift.
下一次人口普查可能会显示天主教徒在北爱尔兰占多数，这并不一定意味着共和国联盟占多数，但这是一个重大转变。
Also, increasingly, the younger generation of the Protestant population in Northern Ireland are not as attracted to the historic Ulster identity as the older generation are.
此外，北爱尔兰新教人口中的年轻一代越来越不像老一代那样对历史悠久的阿尔斯特身份感兴趣。
I think that it's quite likely that there will be a significant move, if not fully toward a united Ireland, in the direction of a united Ireland as a result of Brexit.
我认为，由于英国脱欧，即使不是完全走向统一的爱尔兰，也很可能会朝着爱尔兰统一的方向迈出重大一步。
I think that's one of the…which, also, I think would be a good thing, in many ways.
我认为这是其中之一……我认为从很多方面来说这都是一件好事。
I think that's another one of the consequences falling from it.
我认为这是由此产生的另一个后果。
Why is it there's a movement…it has different names.
为什么会有一个运动……它有不同的名称。
Some people call it populism.
有人称之为民粹主义。
I'm not sure that's the right word because it's not always that popular.
我不确定这个词是否正确，因为它并不总是那么受欢迎。
In England, we've had it.
在英格兰，我们已经经历过了。
In parts of the United States…you don't really have it much at all in Ireland.
在美国的部分地区……在爱尔兰，你根本没有太多这样的东西。
You don't have it much at all in Spain.
在西班牙你根本没有太多这样的东西。
It's growing in France, especially with young people.
它在法国正在增长，尤其是在年轻人中。
We'll see how strong it is.
我们来看看它有多强。
It was strong in the Netherlands but it failed, though, because the more centrist parties moved sharply to the right.
它在荷兰很强大，但失败了，因为中间派政党急剧向右转。
Two interrelated questions.
两个相互关联的问题。
Why have left wing parties in so many countries become so weak?
为什么这么多国家的左翼政党变得如此软弱？
Labor in England is just a joke.
英国的劳工只是一个笑话。
It's not even a joke.
这甚至不是一个笑话。
It's one reason why Theresa May can call another election.
这是特蕾莎·梅可以再次举行选举的原因之一。
Social democratic parties across the continent are looking extremely weak, pretty consistently.
整个非洲大陆的社会民主党看起来都极其虚弱，而且一直如此。
In some, but not all, other countries there are these rising populist or alt‑right movements.
在其他一些国家（但不是全部），民粹主义或另类右翼运动正在兴起。
What's your take on the broader developments that are driving this new and actually pretty startling configuration of loyalties?
您对推动这种新的、实际上相当惊人的忠诚度配置的更广泛的发展有何看法？
How do you see that?
你怎么看？
The thing is, this is the predominant trend.
问题是，这是主要趋势。
The thing you described is a predominant trend throughout most of Europe and, I think, many other parts of the world.
你所描述的事情是欧洲大部分地区以及世界许多其他地区的主要趋势。
Some parts are immune, too.
有些部分也可以免疫。
We want to explain the cross‑section variation.
我们想要解释横截面的变化。
The immune bits are places like Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Japan.
免疫位点是西班牙、葡萄牙、爱尔兰、日本等地。
Is it a Catholic thing?
这是天主教的事情吗？
I don't think it is because Italy's got populism.
我不认为这是因为意大利有民粹主义。
France has got it.
法国已经做到了。
It's pretty strong in parts of Germany, as well.
它在德国部分地区也相当强大。
I think there are two things going on.
我认为有两件事正在发生。
One, firstly, a lot of people say this is due to economic factors.
一、第一，很多人说这是经济因素造成的。
It's due a feeling of disaffection by the losers from globalization.
这是由于全球化失败者的不满情绪。
I don't think that is actually true.
我认为这实际上不是真的。
You may disagree with me on this.
在这一点上你可能不同意我的观点。
I'll come back to you on that in a moment.
我稍后会再回复您。
I think this is about the politics of identity.
我认为这与身份政治有关。
I think what is happening in many countries is that a lot of people feel that their identity is threatened by globalization, by the social, cultural, technological changes, mass migration, a whole range of other things that have taken place in the last 20 to 30 years.
我认为许多国家正在发生的事情是，很多人感到他们的身份受到全球化、社会、文化、技术变革、大规模移民以及过去 20 到 30 年来发生的一系列其他事情的威胁。
These are people who basically want the world to stay roughly the same.
这些人基本上希望世界保持大致相同。
They feel threatened by radical, dramatic change.
他们感到受到彻底、戏剧性变化的威胁。
They feel that their identity is under assault.
他们觉得自己的身份受到攻击。
What they are coming to support is a kind of very unpleasant politics which combines, as indicated Marine Le Pen, for example very left of center economics.
他们要支持的是一种非常令人不快的政治，正如马琳·勒庞（Marine Le Pen）所指出的，这种政治结合了极左的中间派经济学。
She's well to the left of most socialist parties in economics, with anti‑globalism, cultural traditionalism and authoritarianism, and anti‑immigration policies.
在经济方面，她比大多数社会主义政党都偏左，主张反全球化、文化传统主义和威权主义以及反移民政策。
This is politics which is on the rise in most parts of Europe.
这种政治在欧洲大部分地区正在兴起。
The other question you asked is what's happened with the social democrats?
你问的另一个问题是社会民主党发生了什么？
Well, the big story in the Dutch election, actually, which did not get public, was the complete collapse of the Dutch labor party, one of the great historic parties of Dutch politics.
事实上，荷兰大选中没有公开的重大事件是荷兰工党的彻底崩溃，该党是荷兰政坛历史上最伟大的政党之一。
It collapsed from 24 percent of the vote to just under six percent of the vote.
它的得票率从 24% 跌至不到 6%。
Why are these parties so weak?
为什么这些政党如此软弱？
Labor in England?
英国劳工？
For a very simple reason.
原因很简单。
Because, basically, they are trying to appeal to two radically different and increasingly hostile blocks of voters.
因为，基本上，他们试图吸引两个截然不同且日益敌对的选民群体。
On the one hand, traditional, typically older, white, working class voters who are economically left wing but culturally very traditionalist and very conservative.
一方面，传统的，通常是年长的白人工人阶级选民，他们在经济上属于左翼，但在文化上非常传统主义和非常保守。
On the other hand, a more metropolitan, younger, very green, very environmentally conscious, very PC, you might say, culturally leftist group who basically have the same kind of left‑of‑center economics as the first group, but in every other respect are simply on a totally different agenda.
另一方面，你可能会说，一个更都市化、更年轻、非常绿色、非常环保、非常个人化的群体，他们在文化上左派，基本上与第一组具有相同的中左翼经济，但在其他方面完全不同。
It's almost impossible to appeal to both of those two groups at once.
同时吸引这两个群体几乎是不可能的。
Social democratic parties in most parts of Europe are losing their traditional working class base to the new populist politics.
欧洲大部分地区的社会民主党正在因新的民粹主义政治而失去传统的工人阶级基础。
That's what's happening now.
这就是现在正在发生的事情。
If I may, I'd like to put a question to you now.
如果可以的话，我现在想问你一个问题。
Sure.
当然。
What I would say is, first of all, how do you see recent events in the United States as fitting into this broad scenario?
我想说的是，首先，您如何看待美国最近发生的事件是否符合这一大背景？
Do you think that the kind of account I've given to populism in Europe is a good way of understanding or explaining what happened in the election last November, or other trends in American politics in the last few years?
您认为我对欧洲民粹主义的描述是否可以很好地理解或解释去年 11 月选举中发生的情况或过去几年美国政治的其他趋势？
I think it's much cultural and less economic than people think.
我认为它比人们想象的更多的是文化方面的，而不是经济方面的。
If you look even at a state such as West Virginia ‑‑ I just wrote a column about West Virginia ‑‑ we all talk about how poor it is, but per capita income in West Virginia, it's about three‑quarters of the US national average.
如果你看看西弗吉尼亚州这样的州——我刚刚写了一篇关于西弗吉尼亚州的专栏——我们都在谈论它有多穷，但西弗吉尼亚州的人均收入大约是美国全国平均水平的四分之三。
If you take into account the fact that it's cheaper to live there, it's actually not that far from the national average.
如果考虑到那里的生活成本更便宜，那么实际上与全国平均水平相差并不远。
There are obvious problems with opioids, low labor force participation, but that actually means the other people in West Virginia have to be awfully productive.
阿片类药物存在明显的问题，劳动力参与率低，但这实际上意味着西弗吉尼亚州的其他人必须具有极高的生产力。
That per capita income in West Virginia in real terms is about equal to that of France of Japan.
西弗吉尼亚州的人均实际收入大约相当于法国和日本。
Those are poorer countries than the United States.
这些都是比美国更贫穷的国家。
If you're theory is all about the extreme poverty of West Virginia and the state is falling apart, when in fact it's been growing a bit.
如果你的理论是关于西弗吉尼亚州的极端贫困和该州正在分崩离析，而事实上它一直在增长。
It's gained 50,000 residents over the last 15 years, not a lot, but it's not being massively depopulated ‑‑ and your theory is they're all opting for Trump, or populism, or alt‑right because they're so poor, it doesn't make sense.
在过去 15 年里，这里增加了 50,000 名居民，虽然数量不多，但人口并没有大规模减少——你的理论是，他们都选择了特朗普、民粹主义或另类右翼，因为他们太穷了，这没有道理。
There's increased sorting of this country by education and what is sometimes called the coastal elites phenomenon, though you find it in Ann Arbor, and Austin, Texas, and some places that aren't the coasts.
这个国家的教育分类越来越多，有时被称为沿海精英现象，尽管你可以在安娜堡、德克萨斯州奥斯汀以及一些非沿海地区找到这种现象。
Part of it is because of the Internet.
部分原因是因为互联网。
There is a split of sympathy.
同情心有分歧。
Say parents, they might have once said, “I don't want my daughter to marry an X,” some ethnic or racial group.
对于父母来说，他们可能曾经说过，“我不想让我的女儿嫁给 X”，即某个民族或种族群体。
Now it's, “I don't want to my daughter to marry a Republican,” is a much strong sentiment.
现在，“我不想让我的女儿嫁给共和党人”是一种非常强烈的情绪。
Parts of the country are realizing they should rebel against that.
该国部分地区正在意识到他们应该反抗这一点。
I don't feel they're doing so in an especially effective way, but that's what I think is happening here.
我不认为他们以一种特别有效的方式这样做，但这就是我认为这里正在发生的事情。
There is slow wage growth, and that creates grievances where expectations are not met, and that feeds into the cultural problems, but also in Europe it's very often a more cultural thing.
工资增长缓慢，这会在期望未得到满足时产生不满情绪，进而引发文化问题，但在欧洲，这往往是一个更具文化性的问题。
Spain has relatively recent fascism, so they're somewhat inoculated because there's been a lot of immigration to Spain.
西班牙的法西斯主义相对较新，所以他们在某种程度上已经接种了疫苗，因为有很多移民到西班牙。
Ireland didn't have fascism, but it had the issue…obviously a lot of violence.
爱尔兰没有法西斯主义，但它有问题……显然有很多暴力。
The idea that some kind of alt‑right view comes along that flirts with the idea of being violent on Twitter, it's not going to be a big seller in Ireland.
某种另类右翼观点的出现与推特上的暴力想法调情，它不会在爱尔兰大受欢迎。
It's really history being recreated in different places in different ways.
这确实是历史在不同的地方以不同的方式再现。
I tend to agree very much with that, actually.
事实上，我非常同意这一点。
What I then ask you further is you say ‑‑ and I agree with you, as I said ‑‑ that the economics is not what's really driving this.
然后我进一步问你的是，你说——正如我所说，我同意你的观点——经济并不是真正推动这一趋势的因素。
It's more a cultural phenomenon.
这更多的是一种文化现象。
On the other hand, how do you think politics is reacting to something you've been writing about for a while now, which is what you see as the stagnation of innovation, the problems of lack of income growth for large parts of society?
另一方面，你认为政治对你已经写了一段时间的事情有何反应，即你所认为的创新停滞、社会大部分人收入增长不足的问题？
What effects do you think this is having on the broader political media that we're living in?
您认为这会对我们生活的更广泛的政治媒体产生什么影响？
I'm told after my answer we must move to Q&A.
我被告知在我回答后我们必须进入问答环节。
I would say we have so much debt and have some high implicit liabilities.
我想说的是，我们的债务如此之多，而且隐性负债也很高。
Furthermore, we're committed to paying off interest groups that we're actually now at a margin.
此外，我们致力于偿还利益集团，而我们现在实际上处于边缘状态。
We can't do that for everyone now.
我们现在无法为所有人做到这一点。
You have Republicans controlling every branch of government.
共和党控制着政府的每个部门。
They can't agree on tax reform.
他们无法就税收改革达成一致。
They can't agree on how to alter Obamacare, at least not yet.
他们无法就如何改变奥巴马医改达成一致，至少目前还没有。
Those are signs.
这些都是迹象。
It's not really gridlock in the 2011 sense, but we don't have the resources to make deals by paying off the complainers.
这并不是 2011 年意义上的真正僵局，但我们没有资源通过偿还抱怨者来达成交易。
On all sides, a lot of parties are ceasing to cooperate.
从各方面来看，许多各方都在停止合作。
It's more incoherence than a gridlock, but with that we must end.
这比僵局更不连贯，但我们必须结束。
Now Q&A.
现在问答。
We turn it over to all of you.
我们把它交给你们所有人。
Ask what you want, please.
请问你想要什么。
Thank you all for listening.
感谢大家的聆听。
Thank you, Steve.
谢谢你，史蒂夫。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。