Stephen Jennings on Building New Cities (Ep. 193)
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today I am sitting in Tatu City, which is a Special Enterprise Zone right outside of Nairobi, Kenya, and I’m here chatting with Stephen Jennings.
今天我坐在塔图市，这是肯尼亚内罗毕郊外的一个企业特区，我在这里与斯蒂芬·詹宁斯聊天。
Stephen and I go back a long way.
斯蒂芬和我回到了很远的地方。
We knew each other in New Zealand over 30 years ago, where we worked on New Zealand reforms together.
三十多年前，我们在新西兰相识，当时我们一起致力于新西兰的改革。
To give you a brief overview of Stephen’s biography, he was a critical figure in New Zealand Treasury, working on those reforms, later at Credit Suisse First Boston.
为了给您简要概述斯蒂芬的传记，他是新西兰财政部的关键人物，致力于这些改革，后来在瑞士信贷第一波士顿银行工作。
He has an extensive history of working in emerging economies, and he is now founder and CEO of a company called Rendeavour.
他在新兴经济体有着丰富的工作经验，现在是 Rendeavour 公司的创始人兼首席执行官。
Stephen is based in Tatu City itself, again, right outside of Nairobi, and Tatu City is an attempt to reimagine urban environments for Africa.
斯蒂芬的总部再次位于内罗毕郊外的塔图市，塔图市是重新构想非洲城市环境的一次尝试。
There are numerous other projects in other countries, and we will talk about what Stephen is up to.
其他国家还有许多其他项目，我们将讨论斯蒂芬在做什么。
Stephen, welcome.
斯蒂芬，欢迎。
So good to be with you, Tyler, and it’s been amazing to reconnect.
很高兴和你在一起，泰勒，重新建立联系真是太棒了。
It’s like those 30 years were really like a week.
就好像这30年真的就像一周一样。
I think 32 years, we figured out.
我想 32 年，我们就明白了。
32 years.
32年。
We just picked up the same thread of conversation and ways of thinking.
我们只是采用了相同的对话线索和思维方式。
Now, try to sell me on Kenya.
现在，试着向我推销肯尼亚。
If I look at some of the other major African economies, they appear to have taken steps backward in the last two to three years.
如果我看看其他一些非洲主要经济体，它们似乎在过去两三年里倒退了。
Why be optimistic about Kenya in particular?
为什么要特别看好肯尼亚？
Kenya has been on a path of modernization, political and economic modernization and development, really going back to the ’80s.
肯尼亚一直走在现代化、政治和经济现代化和发展的道路上，这实际上可以追溯到八十年代。
It’s averaged over 5 percent GDP growth over that period, but it’s also modernized as an economic and political system, moving away from one-party, essentially, dictatorship, to very vigorous democracy and pluralism, as we saw last year.
在此期间，中国的 GDP 平均增长率超过 5%，但它作为一种经济和政治体系也实现了现代化，从一党专政转向非常活跃的民主和多元化，正如我们去年所看到的那样。
Huge development of infrastructure, modernization of the economy, improvements in school enrollment, life expectancy — every indicator of development, as with much of the continent, has really been transformed over the last 25 years.
基础设施的巨大发展、经济的现代化、入学率的提高、预期寿命的提高——每一个发展指标，与非洲大陆的大部分地区一样，在过去 25 年里确实发生了变化。
Our expectation is that will continue.
我们的期望是这种情况将会持续下去。
Say if politics is the major risk to African development, as it’s proven in so many countries, why be more optimistic about the politics here?
如果政治是非洲发展的主要风险（正如许多国家所证明的那样），为什么要对这里的政治更加乐观呢？
We have a more pluralistic system.
我们有一个更加多元化的体系。
You haven’t had the coups or dictators or disruption you have had in many other African countries.
在许多其他非洲国家，你没有经历过政变、独裁者或混乱。
The transition is very organic.
这种转变是非常有机的。
We have the checks and balances of a system that you’d like to see in a country you’re investing in for the very long term.
我们拥有您希望在长期投资的国家看到的制衡系统。
That’s not necessarily the case in the likes of Nigeria, Rwanda, or even in South Africa today.
在尼日利亚、卢旺达，甚至今天的南非等国家，情况不一定如此。
Why is it that so many African cities at least appear to have very low or even zero agglomeration externalities?
为什么这么多非洲城市至少看起来集聚外部性很低甚至为零？
It’s not true for cities around most of the world, but it seems to measure as true for Africa.
对于世界上大多数城市来说情况并非如此，但对于非洲来说似乎是这样。
What’s the difference, and where does that come from?
有什么区别，它从何而来？
It’s something that’s very unusual about Africa.
这对于非洲来说是非常不寻常的。
As you know, in Asia with growth, you saw agglomeration of economies and cities, and cities became more efficient.
正如你所知，在亚洲的增长中，你看到了经济和城市的聚集，城市变得更加高效。
There’s some pretty obvious reasons why that hasn’t happened here.
这里没有发生这种情况有一些非常明显的原因。
Proper planning and controls really broke down in the ’60s.
适当的规划和控制在 20 世纪 60 年代确实崩溃了。
The plans were not enforced.
该计划没有得到执行。
The development was completely haphazard.
事情的发展完全是偶然的。
Utilities were not modernized, and capacity was not built.
公用事业没有现代化，产能也没有建设。
You have huge capacity issues and shortages around power, water, and other amenities.
您在电力、水和其他设施方面存在巨大的容量问题和短缺。
You have enormous congestion problems.
你有巨大的拥堵问题。
The cities are clogged, the service levels are poor, the planning has been almost nonexistent, and there are massive capacity issues and transport issues.
城市拥堵，服务水平低下，规划几乎不存在，并且存在巨大的容量问题和交通问题。
As they’ve grown, they’ve become more congested and less efficient.
随着它们的成长，它们变得更加拥挤且效率更低。
On Tatu City
塔图市
You have a plan through Tatu City and some of your other projects, in essence, to bring agglomeration externalities to at least some African cities.
你们有一个通过塔图市和其他一些项目的计划，本质上是为至少一些非洲城市带来集聚外部性。
Is that a fair way to put it?
这样说公平吗？
Yes, 15 years ago it was a plan.
是的，15 年前这是一个计划。
I think it’s way beyond the plan now, and I think we’ve proven beyond a shadow of a doubt, if you create new large-scale, world-class urban infrastructure and administration, they will function as normal cities, and you’ll have the demand that you would normally have for a normal, efficient, international-standard city.
我认为现在远远超出了计划，而且我认为我们已经毫无疑问地证明，如果你创建新的大规模、世界一流的城市基础设施和管理，它们将像正常城市一样发挥作用，并且你将有正常、高效、国际标准城市的需求。
Just give us some basic facts.
请给我们一些基本事实。
Where is Tatu City right now, and where will it be headed when it’s more or less finished?
塔图城现在在哪里，建成后又会走向何方？
Tatu City is the only operational special economic zone in the country.
大土市是该国唯一运营的经济特区。
It is 5,000 hectares of fully planned urban development.
这是一个占地5,000公顷的全面规划的城市开发项目。
It is at quite an advanced stage.
它已处于相当高级的阶段。
We have 70 large-scale industrial companies with us, including major multinationals and many of the regional leaders.
我们拥有 70 家大型工业公司，其中包括大型跨国公司和许多地区领先企业。
We have 3,000 students come on site every day to our four new schools.
每天有 3,000 名学生来到我们的四所新学校。
We’re advanced in building the first phase of the first new CBD for the region.
我们在该地区第一个新中央商务区第一阶段的建设方面取得了进展。
We have tens of thousands of core center jobs moving into that area, together with other modern office amenities.
我们有数以万计的核心中心工作岗位以及其他现代化办公设施迁入该地区。
All of the elements — we have many residential modules, thousands of new residential units at a wide range of price points — all of the elements of a new city are in place.
所有要素 ——“我们拥有许多住宅模块，数以千计的各种价位的新住宅单元”—— 新城市的所有要素都已到位。
How many people will end up living here?
最终会有多少人住在这里？
Around 250,000.
大约25万。
And how many businesses?
还有多少企业？
There’ll be thousands of businesses.
将会有数千家企业。
The GDP of Tatu City, how would you imagine it?
大土城的GDP，你想象如何？
What would you compare it to, assume things go well, the project is mature?
假设一切进展顺利，项目已经成熟，您会将其与什么进行比较？
We’re in seven projects in five countries; I think we’re aware of every project across the continent, but there’s very little doubt at all that this will be the leading new city and the largest new city in sub-Saharan Africa.
我们在五个国家开展了七个项目；我认为我们了解非洲大陆的每一个项目，但毫无疑问，这将是撒哈拉以南非洲地区领先的新城市和最大的新城市。
Eventually it’ll catalyze a whole region.
最终它将催化整个地区。
You don’t have a barrier around this.
你在这方面没有障碍。
The spillover effects in terms of development and infrastructure will extend way beyond the borders of the city.
发展和基础设施方面的溢出效应将远远超出城市边界。
And we already begin to see that.
我们已经开始看到这一点。
Why not do a charter city?
为什么不做一个特许城市呢？
We’re a first cousin.
我们是表弟。
There’s a lot of reasons that we haven’t really had charter cities happen.
我们没有真正建立特许城市有很多原因。
It’s a very interesting thought experiment.
这是一个非常有趣的思想实验。
The whole issue of sovereignty — seeding sovereignty and taking someone else’s sovereignty — is a pretty intractable issue.
整个主权问题——“播种主权和夺取别人的主权”——是一个相当棘手的问题。
We are like the first cousin to a charter city.
我们就像特许城市的表亲。
We’re a private municipality with a lot of devolved authorities.
我们是一个私人自治市，拥有许多权力下放的权力。
We have the ability to make decisions the way that a charter city would be.
我们有能力像特许城市那样做出决策。
We have the incentive to optimize the NPV , the long-term value of the city.
我们有动力优化 NPV，即城市的长期价值。
You can see that we’ve created many of the benefits in terms of quality of governance, quality of infrastructure, security, environmental amenities — so many of the envisaged benefits of charter cities are being realized within this model.
你可以看到，我们在治理质量、基础设施质量、安全、环境便利性方面创造了许多好处——特许城市的许多设想的好处正在这个模型中实现。
The way you’ve designed water supply, sewage, electricity, local infrastructure, how has that drawn upon your background as a reformer and privatizer in New Zealand?
您设计供水、污水处理、电力、当地基础设施的方式是如何借鉴您作为新西兰改革者和私有化者的背景的？
Here’s your chance to do it right, not in New Zealand.
这是您正确行事的机会，但不是在新西兰。
Yes, precisely.
是的，正是如此。
What did you learn there, and how are you doing it here?
你在那里学到了什么？你在这里做得怎么样？
It’s a bizarre situation that every area of reform and business that I’ve worked in around the world, the threads of that are picked up in this project.
这是一个奇怪的情况，我在世界各地工作过的每一个改革和商业领域，都在这个项目中得到了体现。
The governance issues through the reform efforts, designing SEZ legislation obviously is a public policy issue.
通过改革努力解决治理问题，设计经济特区立法显然是一个公共政策问题。
But I’ve worked extensively in water and power.
但我在水和电力领域从事过广泛的工作。
Understanding how those businesses should be structured and organized makes it a lot easier to set them up and manage them.
了解这些业务应如何构建和组织可以更轻松地设置和管理它们。
A city is very — it’s much more multifaceted than you would think.
一座城市非常 ——它比你想象的要多层面。
The work that I did in New Zealand on Treaty of Waitangi issues with Māori has also informed a lot of thinking around community and property-right issues.
我在新西兰就《怀唐伊条约》与毛利人问题所做的工作也引发了许多关于社区和财产权问题的思考。
It’s been this bizarre experience of all of these threads fortuitously being drawn together in these projects.
所有这些线索在这些项目中被偶然地聚集在一起，这是一种奇怪的经历。
What’s the hardest part about designing the incentives for a sewage system?
设计污水系统的激励措施最困难的部分是什么？
Not the physical work, but thinking through the incentives?
不是体力劳动，而是思考激励措施？
The challenges have to do with scale and time horizon.
挑战与规模和时间范围有关。
In environments where utilities are not being provided by municipalities, everyone tries to solve their own solution, create their own solution.
在市政当局不提供公用设施的环境中，每个人都试图解决自己的解决方案，创建自己的解决方案。
They’ll have their own water solution, their own power solution, maybe their own sewer solution, their own security solution.
他们将拥有自己的供水解决方案、自己的电力解决方案、也许自己的下水道解决方案、自己的安全解决方案。
Clearly, there’s zero economies of scale, and people don’t have the expertise or even the desire to solve those solution.
显然，规模经济为零，人们没有专业知识，甚至没有解决这些解决方案的愿望。
You have these very patchwork, extremely inefficient and nonsustainable solutions to these very basic problems.
对于这些非常基本的问题，你有这些非常拼凑、效率极低且不可持续的解决方案。
A city has the advantage that you are able to solve those problems for everybody, and there’s just tremendous economies of scale.
城市的优势在于你能够为每个人解决这些问题，并且具有巨大的规模经济。
In terms of quality and cost, you get these tremendous advantages over what everybody outside of that environment is able to create.
就质量和成本而言，您将获得比该环境之外的每个人都能够创造的巨大优势。
Because Rendeavour owns the sewage system, there’s not the usual holdup problem with some outside authority.
由于 Rendeavour 拥有污水处理系统，因此不存在通常受到外部当局阻碍的问题。
Is that fair, or no?
这公平吗？
Yes.
是的。
One of the things you’re solving is the holdup problem at many, many levels.
您要解决的问题之一是许多层面的劫持问题。
Everyone has to deal with bureaucrats who won’t supply water, who won’t provide licenses, who create tax issues.
每个人都必须与不供水、不提供许可证、制造税收问题的官僚打交道。
Every element of government you touch, there’s a holdup issue.
你接触到的政府的每一个要素，都存在阻碍问题。
There’s economies of scale in solving that or mitigating that on behalf of everybody else.
代表其他人解决或减轻问题会产生规模经济。
We have to deal with it, but it’s more efficient to deal with it once than thousands of times for each developer and each resident.
我们必须要处理它，但对于每个开发商和每个居民来说，处理一次比处理数千次更有效率。
Let me tell you one of my biggest worries, see if you can talk me out of it.
让我告诉你我最担心的事情之一，看看你能否说服我摆脱它。
The more success you have in solving these holdup problems, the more the land, the whole community is worth.
你在解决这些抢劫问题上越成功，土地、整个社区的价值就越高。
That’s what success means in a sense.
从某种意义上来说，这就是成功的意义。
You create one really big holdup problem: that the incentive of politics to confiscate the rents from the land goes up.
这就造成了一个非常大的抢劫问题：没收土地租金的政治动机上升。
In terms of risk diversification, you put all the apples into this one big holdup problem.
就风险分散而言，你把所有的苹果都放入了这一重大的劫持问题中。
It becomes a juicier target.
它成为一个更有趣的目标。
How do you think about why that might work out?
您认为为什么这可能有效？
Well, clearly that is a risk.
嗯，显然这是一个风险。
The way you have to counterbalance that risk is, you have to be adding more and more to the community and to the overall economy.
抵消这种风险的方法是，你必须为社区和整体经济做出越来越多的贡献。
Tens of thousands of jobs become hundreds of thousands of jobs, and those hundreds of thousands of jobs can end up supporting a million people or half a million people.
数万个工作岗位变成了数十万个工作岗位，而这数十万个工作岗位最终可以养活一百万人或五十万人。
If you’re the largest source of FDI .
如果您是最大的 FDI 来源国。
If you’re the largest proponent of investment within the country.
如果您是国内最大的投资支持者。
You have to be, over time, recognized as providing huge benefits to the wider community.
随着时间的推移，您必须被认为为更广泛的社区提供了巨大的利益。
Give us a sense of the range of price points.
让我们了解价格点的范围。
Say someone wants to live here.
假设有人想住在这里。
What does it cost?
费用是多少？
People envisage these projects as being like gated communities for the elite, and that is one model.
人们将这些项目想象为精英阶层的封闭社区，这就是一种模式。
But if you think what a city really is, that is not a city.
但如果你思考城市到底是什么，那它就不是城市了。
A key dimension of building a city that’s efficient and as agglomeration economies is mixed use, mixed income.
建设高效城市和集聚经济的一个关键方面是混合用途、混合收入。
You can’t just pay lip service to that to make NGOs happen.
你不能只靠口头上的承诺来推动非政府组织的发展。
It’s actually in our interest to do that.
这样做实际上符合我们的利益。
For housing, we go down to about $30,000 for what is really a world-class product produced by Unity Homes.
对于住房，我们将价格降至 30,000 美元左右，购买了 Unity Homes 生产的真正世界一流的产品。
In terms of the finish, the environmental amenities, securities, pools, bars, these really are world-class units.
就装修而言，环境设施、证券、游泳池、酒吧，这些确实是世界一流的单位。
Equally, we want the owners of major businesses and the biggest entrepreneurs in the region to come and live at Tatu City.
同样，我们希望该地区的大企业主和最大的企业家能够来到塔图市居住。
We might have a product where just your land is going to cost you $1,000,000 before you build your house.
我们可能有一种产品，在您建造房屋之前，仅您的土地就会花费 1,000,000 美元。
It’ll be extremely beautiful, it’ll have amazing amenities, and you’ll be in the heart of the project.
它将非常美丽，拥有令人惊叹的便利设施，而且您将处于该项目的中心。
We do and we have to accommodate for that full range, and not just in housing: things like restaurants and services, nail salons.
我们确实这么做了，而且我们必须适应全方位的需求，而不仅仅是住房方面的需求：比如餐厅和服务、美甲沙龙等。
You can make it just for the elite in a shopping mall, or you’re going to have a variety of formats where you accommodate everybody.
您可以只为购物中心的精英人士提供服务，也可以采用多种形式来容纳所有人。
We go out of our way, and it’s very unusual how we think about that.
我们不遗余力地思考这个问题，这是很不寻常的。
We want the worker who’s earning $250 a month to do some of his shopping, to have a restaurant that is affordable for him.
我们希望月薪 250 美元的工人能够进行一些购物，拥有一家他负担得起的餐厅。
We make a big effort to provide those services for those people.
我们付出巨大努力为这些人提供这些服务。
Let’s say either you or someone else wants to do a version of the idea, but with a price point at $10,000.
假设您或其他人想做这个想法的一个版本，但价格为 10,000 美元。
What problem needs to be solved, or what problems, for that to be possible?
需要解决什么问题，或者什么问题才能实现这一点？
The price point for what?
价位是多少？
For a home.
为了一个家。
You’re selling dwellings for $30,000 here, and someone — they’re inspired by what you’ve done, but they’re going to be in a poorer location, and they want to bring costs down so they can sell dwellings for $10,000.
你在这里以 30,000 美元的价格出售住宅，而有人——他们受到了你所做的事情的启发，但他们将身处一个更贫穷的地方，他们希望降低成本，这样他们就可以以 10,000 美元的价格出售住宅。
That’s exactly the problem to be solved.
这正是要解决的问题。
Yes, but what needs to go right for that to be feasible?
是的，但是需要怎样做才能使其可行呢？
JENNINGS It’s not so much what needs to go right.
詹宁斯：这并不是什么需要正确进行的事情。
It’s the planning, the technology, and the scale.
这是规划、技术和规模。
If you want to get the costs way, way down for a unit, you can’t have car parking.
如果你想大幅降低单位成本，就不能有停车场。
If you’re trying to go from $30,000 to $20,000 to $15,000, you can’t have car parks.
如果你想从 30,000 美元到 20,000 美元再到 15,000 美元，你就没有停车场。
You’re building houses for people who will live within the city and who are going to be within a walkable distance of their work.
您正在为居住在城市内且距离工作地点步行范围内的人们建造房屋。
Obviously, you’re going to go up.
显然，你会上升。
You need more and more scale.
您需要越来越大的规模。
It’s a chicken-and-egg problem in getting affordable housing in sub-Saharan Africa because no one has cracked that scale problem to what we’re doing here.
在撒哈拉以南非洲地区获得经济适用房是一个先有鸡还是先有蛋的问题，因为没有人能够解决我们在这里所做的事情的规模问题。
You need bigger scale.
你需要更大的规模。
You need to go up a little bit.
你需要上升一点。
I think we know with our partners — we already know how to go from $30,000 to $20,000, and then it’s going to get much harder going from 20 to $15,000.
我想我们和我们的合作伙伴都知道 ——我们已经知道如何从 30,000 美元到 20,000 美元，然后从 20 美元到 15,000 美元就会变得更加困难。
If cars cost so much for the community, how are you regulating cars?
如果汽车对社会来说成本如此之高，你如何监管汽车？
It’s not the cost of the car, it’s the cost of the land.
这不是汽车的成本，而是土地的成本。
Sure.
当然。
Say I want to buy a unit that has a place for me to put my car.
假设我想购买一个可以停放汽车的单位。
I can pay more and do that, or I can’t do that?
我可以支付更多费用来做到这一点，或者我不能这样做？
No, absolutely you can, and you can have two cars or three cars.
不，绝对可以，而且您可以拥有两辆车或三辆车。
I just have to pay a steep tariff to be able to do so.
我只需要支付高昂的关税就能做到这一点。
There’s somebody else who would love to have a properly built, safe, secured apartment for 15,000, with nice amenities and a park and a playground.
还有一些人希望拥有一套适合 15,000 人居住的、建造得当、安全、有保障的公寓，配有良好的设施、公园和游乐场。
You can do that, but you probably won’t have car parking for those people.
你可以这样做，但你可能不会为这些人提供停车位。
In the mature version of the idea, how do I get from one side of Tatu City to the other?
在这个想法的成熟版本中，我如何从塔图城的一侧到达另一侧？
Let’s say I don’t have the car, there’s no streetcars, right?
假设我没有车，也没有有轨电车，对吧？
There’s shuttles, or I walk, or there’s e-bikes?
有班车，还是步行，还是有电动自行车？
A lot of ideas on urban planning are born or are driven by retrofitting of existing cities.
许多城市规划的想法都是由现有城市的改造而诞生或推动的。
There’s a lot of principles that are paid lip service to, but the application of those is compromised by the fact that 99% of the time, urban designers are involved in the game of retrofitting.
有很多原则都是口头上的，但这些原则的应用却受到了以下事实的影响：99% 的时间里，城市设计师都参与了改造游戏。
Imagine you should sit down with a clean sheet of paper, and you can think about how people are going to move around in the city, and you can do whatever you want to.
想象一下，你应该拿着一张干净的纸坐下来，你可以思考人们将如何在城市中移动，你可以做任何你想做的事情。
If you ask the urban planner, he will still start with designing a road, but maybe you start by saying, “No, let’s do human green corridors first, and then we’ll talk about the roads, about how they fit around those human green corridors.
如果你问城市规划师，他仍然会从设计一条道路开始，但也许你会说：“不，我们先做人类绿色走廊，然后我们再讨论道路，讨论它们如何与人类绿色走廊相适应。
Let’s, as designers would say, ‘create an invitation’ so that people really want to walk, they really want to cycle.
正如设计师所说，“创建一个邀请”，让人们真正想走路，真正想骑自行车。
They’re not even on the side of a road.
他们甚至不在路边。
They don’t have to go near a road.”
他们不必靠近马路。”
There are the opportunities.
有机会。
We’re in one of the most beautiful and one of the nicest climates in the world.
我们处于世界上最美丽、气候最好的地区之一。
We have opportunities that you just don’t have in a normal urban planning setting.
我们拥有在正常城市规划环境中所没有的机会。
To change mobility, to massively reduce the importance of cars, but to bake that into the how we plan from the very beginning, that’s very unusual.
改变出行方式，大幅降低汽车的重要性，但从一开始就将其纳入我们的计划中，这是非常不寻常的。
As you know, there are many refugees in Kenya from other countries.
如你所知，肯尼亚有许多来自其他国家的难民。
Is there a possible vision where a Special Enterprise Zone is built for them, it becomes a real functioning city?
是否有可能为他们建立一个企业特区，使其成为一个真正运作的城市？
Or is it simply not profitable, too many obstacles?
还是根本不赚钱，障碍太多？
Or can Kenya think of doing that?
或者肯尼亚可以考虑这样做吗？
Diversity — as you know, if you look through history, the cities that really prospered, that made a difference, that were hugely innovative, they were diverse.
多样性 ——正如你所知，如果你回顾历史，那些真正繁荣、有所作为、具有巨大创新的城市，它们是多元化的。
They were safe havens for people for all kinds of backgrounds including foreigners, perhaps even people that have been persecuted in other environments.
它们是各种背景的人的避风港，包括外国人，甚至可能是在其他环境中遭受迫害的人。
This diversity, this mixing of people, this crossroads concept, this global marketplace — embedding that in everything you do is vitally important.
这种多样性、这种人的混合、这种十字路口概念、这个全球市场 ——将其融入到你所做的一切中是至关重要的。
You need mosques, for example.
例如，你需要清真寺。
We want to have a big Somali community here.
我们希望这里有一个大的索马里社区。
If we want that, we need specialized infrastructure for them.
如果我们想要这样，我们就需要为他们提供专门的基础设施。
We want to be the main hub for Chinese investment in the entire region.
我们希望成为中国在整个地区投资的主要枢纽。
So, we need specialized institutions.
所以，我们需要专门的机构。
We need to pay respect to Chinese culture.
我们需要尊重中国文化。
We need to listen to them, work with them on quite nuanced issues sometimes.
我们需要倾听他们的意见，有时与他们合作解决非常微妙的问题。
You definitely don’t want to go into any kind of segregation along those lines.
您绝对不想沿着这些路线进行任何形式的隔离。
What’s the aesthetic vision for Tatu City?
大都城的审美愿景是什么？
You know, we are in one of the most beautiful countries in the world.
你知道，我们身处世界上最美丽的国家之一。
We’re in a country with huge cultural diversity and a very vibrant and distinctive culture, and we have a clean sheet of paper.
我们所在的国家拥有巨大的文化多样性和非常充满活力和独特的文化，而且我们没有一张白纸。
From a design and aesthetic perspective, we want this to be a Kenyan city.
从设计和美学的角度来看，我们希望这是一座肯尼亚城市。
We don’t want you walk into Tatu and you think, “Well, this is a bit like Dubai,” or, “This is a bit like Sandton and Johannesburg.” That would be complete failure for us.
我们不希望您走进塔图并想，“嗯，这有点像迪拜”，或者“这有点像桑顿和约翰内斯堡。”这对我们来说将是彻底的失败。
What does that mean concretely?
这具体意味着什么？
I’m here now, but what do I notice as a visitor where I say, “That makes this a Kenyan city”?
我现在在这里，但是当我说“这使得这里成为肯尼亚城市”时，我会注意到什么？
The way we’re designing out CBD.
我们设计 CBD 的方式。
There are a lot of subtle cultural references from different Kikuyu, but also other tribal groups.
有许多来自不同基库尤人和其他部落群体的微妙文化参考。
CBD, central business district, right?
CBD，中央商务区，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
What would be a reference of that kind?
此类参考资料是什么？
It could be the façade of a building.
它可能是建筑物的正面。
It could be the pattern in a plaza.
这可能是广场上的图案。
It could be who designs and the cultural references in a major sculpture.
它可能是大型雕塑的设计者和文化参考。
Here Mugumo tree is very, very sacred.
在这里，Mugumo 树非常非常神圣。
We will be moving a massive historic and culturally important Mugumo tree into the center of the plaza.
我们将把一棵巨大的历史和文化重要的 Mugumo 树移到广场中心。
Then the other element is making it very green, very walkable and very, very beautiful, and very safe.
另一个因素是让它变得非常绿色、非常适合步行、非常非常美丽、而且非常安全。
Baking that into how we plan the city from day one, really committing in a very deep way to those principles.
从第一天起，我们就将其融入到城市规划中，并真正深入地致力于这些原则。
Generally, they’re quite superficial in modern cities, because you’re constrained by the old city.
一般来说，它们在现代城市中是相当肤浅的，因为你受到旧城市的限制。
There’s this huge element of retrofitting.
这是改造的一个巨大元素。
We don’t need to do any of that, but you need to embrace those principles in a very wholehearted fashion.
我们不需要做任何这些，但你需要全心全意地接受这些原则。
It takes more time, it takes more effort, but the payoff, I think, is going to be massive in the medium term.
这需要更多的时间，需要更多的努力，但我认为，从中期来看，回报将是巨大的。
Let’s say you put aside budget constraints, forget about your shareholders, you’re thinking unrealistically, you’re up at night, excited about something you know you can’t do.
假设你抛开预算限制，忘记了你的股东，你的想法不切实际，你彻夜难眠，对你知道自己做不到的事情感到兴奋。
What is that something, aesthetically?
从美学角度来说，那是什么东西？
I’ll answer the question, but we don’t think like that.
我会回答这个问题，但我们不这么认为。
Sure.
当然。
Sustainability means it’s commercially viable.
可持续性意味着它在商业上是可行的。
You have a lot of city projects that are massively subsidized by governments, particularly in petrostates.
许多城市项目都得到政府的大量补贴，特别是在石油国家。
Our models are exactly the opposite.
我们的模型恰恰相反。
It doesn’t matter what we want or what we might want to pay for.
我们想要什么或我们可能想付出什么并不重要。
It matters what our developers and our clients and our residents — what do they want, and what are they prepared to pay for?
重要的是我们的开发商、我们的客户和我们的居民 ——他们想要什么，以及他们准备支付什么？
We can bring all kinds of ideas of ours and all kinds of costs, but you can’t do that, and it’s wrong to try and do that.
我们可以带来我们的各种想法和各种成本，但你不能这样做，尝试这样做是错误的。
We don’t try and impose solutions or levels of infrastructure people don’t want, or styles that people don’t want.
我们不会尝试强加人们不想要的解决方案或基础设施水平，或者人们不想要的风格。
So it’s probably not a question — it’s probably not how we look at things.
所以这可能不是一个问题——这可能不是我们看待事物的方式。
There’s things that we think our residents will want that are hard to bring.
有些东西我们认为我们的居民会想要但很难带来。
Let me give you an example.
让我举个例子。
You can have good schools that the community is happy with, or you could have a world-class school.
你可以拥有社区满意的好学校，也可以拥有世界一流的学校。
In my view, there’s a qualitative difference between those two, because if you have a world-class school, you will bring world-class professionals.
在我看来，这两者之间存在质的区别，因为如果你有一所世界一流的学校，你就会带来世界一流的专业人士。
The best professionals in the world in whatever that industry might be, they’ll want to come to your city because their children could go to a school that’s as good or better than anywhere else.
无论该行业是什么，世界上最好的专业人士都会希望来到您的城市，因为他们的孩子可以去一所与其他地方一样好甚至更好的学校。
So that’s the kind of thing that challenges us.
这就是对我们提出挑战的事情。
Putting aside all questions of politics, if you just think of constraints on the business side of what you’re doing, what’s the biggest constraint you face?
抛开所有政治问题，如果你只考虑你正在做的事情的商业方面的限制，你面临的最大限制是什么？
Biggest constraint we face is human capital.
我们面临的最大制约是人力资本。
We’re obviously not land constrained.
我们显然不受土地限制。
We’re unleveraged, we have very good cash flow, we have very, very good financing partners.
我们没有杠杆，我们有非常好的现金流，我们有非常非常好的融资合作伙伴。
We’re absolutely not capital constrained in any way.
我们绝对不受任何资金限制。
We’re trying to do some world-class infrastructure, world-class execution, world-class buildings, world-class technology.
我们正在努力建设一些世界一流的基础设施、世界一流的执行、世界一流的建筑和世界一流的技术。
And by definition, a lot of the human capital to do those things doesn’t exist in this market.
根据定义，这个市场上不存在做这些事情的大量人力资本。
City scale, landscaping, urban realm — these schools don’t exist.
城市规模、景观、城市领域——这些学校并不存在。
You either have a lot of foreign consultants fly in, fly out; they’re not particularly focused; they’re not necessarily the best consultants in the world; and it’s just extremely inefficient.
你要么有很多外国顾问飞进来，飞出去；要么有很多外国顾问飞进来，飞出去；他们不是特别专注；他们不一定是世界上最好的顾问；而且效率极低。
The constraint is embedding world-class technical people within a Kenyan team.
限制因素是在肯尼亚团队中嵌入世界一流的技术人员。
What’s the key variable that will determine whether the talent question goes well for Rendeavour or goes not so well?
决定 Rendeavour 人才问题是否顺利的关键变量是什么？
What does that hinge upon?
这取决于什么？
A lot is experience in doing the same thing in other businesses, in other contexts, which I’ve been doing for 30 years now.
我在其他行业、其他环境中做同样的事情，积累了很多经验，我已经这样做了 30 年。
You have to spend a lot of time.
你必须花费很多时间。
You have to spend a lot of your time identifying those people, checking those people, persuading those people, and integrating those people.
你必须花费大量时间来识别这些人，检查这些人，说服这些人，并整合这些人。
It’s very easy to hire some very senior development manager, but it’s very hard to find the right person who’s going to be committed to your project, who will integrate your team and train local professionals.
聘请一些非常高级的开发经理很容易，但很难找到合适的人来致力于您的项目，整合您的团队并培训当地专业人员。
It takes a lot of time and a lot of judgment.
这需要大量的时间和大量的判断。
What question do you ask people to try to determine if they’re that young professional who wants to devote his or her life to building out, say, Tatu City?
你会问人们什么问题来确定他们是否是那个愿意将一生奉献给建设塔图市的年轻专业人士？
Yes, interviews — it’s pretty well documented — interviews are a very inaccurate way of selecting and evaluating people.
是的，面试 ——“有很好的记录”—— 面试是一种非常不准确的选择和评估人员的方式。
But it’s often what you have.
但这往往是你所拥有的。
We’ll check their prior work in a lot of detail, and we’ll spend a lot of time with them, and we’ll put them in a lot of situations without their actually knowing that we’re deliberately doing that, to see how they will react with our local staff or without.
我们会详细检查他们之前的工作，我们会花很多时间和他们在一起，我们会把他们置于很多情况下，而他们实际上并不知道我们是故意这样做的，看看他们对我们当地员工的反应如何。
It might be a dinner after a long day when they think it’s time to relax, but we’re actually looking to see how they interact with our clients.
这可能是漫长一天后的晚餐，他们认为是时候放松一下了，但我们实际上想看看他们如何与客户互动。
Do they listen?
他们听吗？
Are they respectful?
他们尊重人吗？
Are they really interested, or are they just going through the motions?
他们真的感兴趣，还是只是走走过场？
A lot of the recruitment information comes away from the interview process.
许多招聘信息都来自面试过程。
How do they behave when you’re actually negotiating their deal?
当你实际谈判他们的交易时，他们的表现如何？
Are they timely?
他们及时吗？
Are they honest?
他们诚实吗？
Do they play games?
他们玩游戏吗？
Do they change their position?
他们会改变立场吗？
We rely on a lot of those kinds of data points.
我们依赖很多此类数据点。
On Nairobi
在内罗毕
Putting aside Tatu City, which is your favorite part of Nairobi, and what about it do you find so interesting?
抛开塔图城不谈，塔图城是你最喜欢的内罗毕的一部分，你觉得它有什么有趣的地方呢？
It’s one of the most lovely countries — and I’ve been to over 100 countries.
这是最可爱的国家之一——我去过 100 多个国家。
Coming from New Zealand, I know what a beautiful country is.
来自新西兰，我知道什么是一个美丽的国家。
You have incredible diversity of environmental amenities here.
这里的环境设施多种多样，令人难以置信。
Amazing national parks, but very diverse, from desert-like areas to Maasai Mara.
令人惊叹的国家公园，但非常多样化，从沙漠地区到马赛马拉。
You have an incredible coastline, you have incredible cultural diversity.
你有令人难以置信的海岸线，你有令人难以置信的文化多样性。
Say in Nairobi, what gets you excited about Nairobi other than improving upon it?
就内罗毕而言，除了不断改进之外，还有什么让您对内罗毕感到兴奋呢？
Getting on my bike with a few friends on a Sunday morning riding for 60, 70Ks through just idyllic, diverse countryside.
周日早上，我和几个朋友骑着自行车骑行 60、70 公里，穿过田园诗般、多样化的乡村。
Why do you think the cost of living in Nairobi has so much skyrocketed lately?
您认为为什么内罗毕的生活成本最近飙升如此之多？
Everything’s inefficient.
一切都是低效的。
Government’s inefficient.
政府效率低下。
There’s a delta issue and there’s a levels issue, right?
存在增量问题和水平问题，对吗？
Is it food prices, energy prices, or what’s going wrong at the margins?
是食品价格、能源价格还是边缘问题？
Yes, clearly, given the structure of the Kenyan economy, the external shocks have been very unfavorable.
是的，显然，考虑到肯尼亚的经济结构，外部冲击非常不利。
Fuel is imported here, and grains are imported here.
这里进口燃料，这里进口谷物。
They’ve been the big two short-term drivers — and clearly they’ll unwind now to some extent.
它们一直是两大短期驱动因素——而且显然它们现在将在某种程度上放松。
How should Nairobi fix its traffic problems?
内罗毕应该如何解决交通问题？
Well, so far, they’ve done what everybody does, and they’ve built more and more capacity.
嗯，到目前为止，他们已经做了每个人都会做的事情，并且他们已经建立了越来越多的能力。
And as everybody knows, more and more capacity creates more and more demand, so it achieves nothing, and it’s actually clogged up the center of the city more and more.
众所周知，容量越来越大，需求也越来越多，所以一事无成，而且实际上越来越堵塞城市中心。
Clearly, there should be congestion charges as they should be everywhere.
显然，应该征收拥堵费，因为拥堵费应该无处不在。
It’s harder to do in low-tech settings.
在低科技环境下这更难做到。
What do you think, it can be done?
你觉得怎么样，可以做到吗？
I don’t think —
我不认为 ——
Through smartphones?
通过智能手机？
I think that technology is really — it’s like so many economic problems.
我认为技术真的 ——就像许多经济问题一样。
They’re technically easy, but they’re politically complicated.
它们在技术上很简单，但在政治上却很复杂。
Obviously, people try and blame the technology.
显然，人们试图指责这项技术。
No, the technology exists, it’s developed a long time ago, it’s ubiquitous, but there’s no other political world to apply that technology.
不，这项技术是存在的，它很久以前就已经开发出来了，它无处不在，但没有其他政治世界可以应用这项技术。
So the city will get more and more congested.
所以城市会变得越来越拥堵。
Can a subway system be built?
可以建造地铁系统吗？
I don’t think these problems — most of the rest of the developing world has been through exactly the same problems.
我不认为这些问题——“其他大多数发展中国家都经历过完全相同的问题”。
They’re really problems of governance.
它们确实是治理问题。
They’re 99 percent problems of governance: water, power, municipal transport.
它们 99% 都是治理问题：水、电、市政交通。
These are all governance problems, not technical problems — urban realm.
这些都是治理问题，而不是技术问题——“城市领域”。
We know that these problems can be addressed.
我们知道这些问题是可以解决的。
In my view, the governance issues here and in most of sub-Saharan Africa mean that these problems won’t be solved for the next 25 years at least.
在我看来，这里以及撒哈拉以南非洲大部分地区的治理问题意味着这些问题至少在未来 25 年内都不会得到解决。
Hence the demand for new, modern urban environments.
因此，需要新的、现代化的城市环境。
On Kenya
关于肯尼亚
Should we be trying to title all land in Nairobi and in Kenya, or is it more efficient when you have a sector with untitled land, lower prices, less formality, arguably less regulation?
我们是否应该尝试为内罗毕和肯尼亚的所有土地授予所有权，或者当您的部门拥有无权土地、更低的价格、更少的手续、可以说更少的监管时，效率会更高吗？
What’s the right way to think about the land-titling issue?
思考土地所有权问题的正确方法是什么？
Stigler said all regulation is rationally devised, so the inefficiency in land titling and land offices is very purposely designed to be inefficient and to facilitate corruption and cartels and land offices.
斯蒂格勒表示，所有监管都是合理设计的，因此土地所有权和土地办公室的低效率是故意设计的，目的是效率低下，并助长腐败、卡特尔和土地办公室。
So it’s a huge source of rents.
所以这是一个巨大的租金来源。
Again, it’s not a tech — the Kenyans are in the process of digitalization.
再说一次，这不是一项技术——肯尼亚人正处于数字化过程中。
They can digitalize the whole thing and create transparency in their sleep probably in six months.
他们可能可以在六个月内将整个事情数字化并创造睡眠透明度。
It’s a question of, is there the political will to deal with those cartels and the rent seekers who are benefiting from the existing system?
问题是，是否有政治意愿来对付那些从现有体系中受益的卡特尔和寻租者？
But you think it isn’t ideal to title everything, even though rents probably would go up?
但你认为给所有东西都加上标题并不理想，尽管租金可能会上涨？
No, absolutely it is.
不，绝对是这样。
Lack of land, poor enforcement and definition of property rights is one of the biggest barriers to development in the region.
缺乏土地、执法不力和产权界定不力是该地区发展的最大障碍之一。
As you know, Kenya has many different ethnic groups, tribal groups.
如您所知，肯尼亚有许多不同的民族、部落。
If you think about the prospects for Kenyans all truly thinking of themselves as a single nation, what variable does one track to see how well that’s going?
如果你考虑一下肯尼亚人的前景，他们都真正认为自己是一个单一的国家，那么我们可以跟踪什么变量来了解情况进展如何？
Is it the soccer team?
是足球队吗？
Is it what music they listen to?
是他们听的音乐吗？
Is it something about politics?
与政治有关吗？
It’s probably urbanization, because once people move into an urban setting, those tribal barriers and differences, they gradually melt away, and you can see that — and you’re going to see it this week in our office.
这可能是城市化，因为一旦人们进入城市环境，那些部落障碍和差异就会逐渐消失，你可以看到这一点——本周你将在我们的办公室看到它。
Most of our staff, they grew up in an urban context, but you’re not going to distinguish anyone by their tribal background because they’re living together, they’re working together.
我们的大多数员工都是在城市环境中长大的，但你不会通过他们的部落背景来区分任何人，因为他们生活在一起，一起工作。
I think through urbanization, those barriers are really — they’ve already eroded massively.
我认为通过城市化，这些障碍确实已经被大规模侵蚀。
The politicians like to stir them up every election cycle, but the underlying integration I think is very pronounced.
政客们喜欢在每个选举周期煽动他们，但我认为潜在的整合是非常明显的。
I think it’s much less of an issue than the outside world probably thinks.
我认为这比外界想象的要小得多。
Is there a risk that Kenya becomes too top-heavy with Nairobi overdeveloping, the way arguably London has, Vienna has in Austria?
肯尼亚是否存在因内罗毕过度开发而变得过于头重脚轻的风险，就像伦敦、奥地利维也纳那样？
How are the second and third cities doing in terms of health or a certain amount of political balance?
第二和第三城市在健康或一定程度的政治平衡方面表现如何？
No, the incentive structures are profoundly different.
不，激励结构截然不同。
UK and New Zealand have the highest proportion of tax revenues that go to central government, so it creates this huge bias towards development in the capital city and centralization.
英国和新西兰的中央政府税收比例最高，因此造成了首都发展和集权的巨大偏差。
Here we have a very devolved constitution, and with that devolution, a lot of revenues are given to the local counties.
我们这里有一部权力下放的宪法，随着权力下放，大量收入被分配给当地县。
The structural reasons for that concentration in the likes of UK don’t exist here.
这种集中在英国等国家的结构性原因在这里并不存在。
Then at just a practical level, you drive around, you see phenomenal development all over the country.
然后在实际层面上，你开车到处走走，你会看到全国各地的惊人发展。
It’s 47 counties.
有47个县。
Isn’t that too many?
是不是太多了？
There’s too much devolution over time, economies of scale; it’ll evolve back, if only de facto, to being a smaller number of counties.
随着时间的推移，权力下放过多，规模经济；即使事实上，它也会演变成更少的县。
What’s the right way to think about optimal federalism for Kenya?
思考肯尼亚最佳联邦制的正确方法是什么？
There’s too much?
太多了？
There’s too little?
是不是太少了？
We know that Switzerland is the most devolved country in the world and also that it’s one of the most efficient.
我们知道瑞士是世界上权力下放程度最高的国家，也是效率最高的国家之一。
We know that New Zealand and the UK are the most centralized, and that model’s not exactly working.
我们知道新西兰和英国是最中心化的，但这种模式并不完全有效。
I don’t think there’s any right answer, and a lot has to do with culture and experience and skills that have developed.
我认为没有任何正确的答案，这很大程度上与文化、经验和已经发展的技能有关。
This degree of devolution is quite new here.
这种程度的权力下放在这里是相当新鲜的。
It’s going to take decades for it to really work efficiently.
它需要几十年的时间才能真正有效地发挥作用。
I think it’s much better than the centralized model, vastly better.
我认为它比中心化模式好得多，好得多。
There’s short-term transition costs, but medium term I think it’s going to be really great.
有短期的过渡成本，但从中期来看，我认为这会非常好。
How many counties there should be?
应该有多少个县？
I don’t know, and I don’t think anyone else really knows either.
我不知道，而且我认为其他人也不知道。
Kenyan demographics.
肯尼亚人口统计。
In Nairobi, I read total fertility is 2.5.
在内罗毕，我读到总生育率为 2.5。
That’s quite low for Africa.
对于非洲来说，这个数字相当低。
How did it get there?
它是怎么到达那里的？
How does that shape economic development for Kenya?
这对肯尼亚的经济发展有何影响？
It’s one of the really amazing things about what’s happening in Africa.
这是非洲正在发生的最令人惊奇的事情之一。
Birth rates are falling very quickly across the continent, virtually everywhere, with the exception of a few places, places like Niger, and that decline is accelerating, and it’s falling faster.
除了尼日尔等少数地方外，整个非洲大陆几乎所有地方的出生率都在迅速下降，而且下降速度正在加快，而且下降得更快。
The forecasts are revised pretty regularly now.
现在预测经常被修改。
That’s birth control, later marriage, or what?
那是节育、晚婚还是什么？
Is it the same factors or something different?
是相同的因素还是不同的因素？
I think it’s the same factors that have driven this incredible reduction in birth rates across the world.
我认为正是同样的因素导致了世界各地出生率的惊人下降。
As the likes of Charlie Robertson have said, the demographic dividend really kicks in when birth rates fall from, say, 3.5 to 2.5, because that’s when people can save.
正如查理·罗伯逊（Charlie Robertson）等人所说，当出生率从 3.5 下降到 2.5 时，人口红利才真正发挥作用，因为那时人们可以储蓄。
That’s when dependency ratios really start to improve.
那时抚养比才真正开始改善。
Kenya is at the vanguard of that process across this region.
肯尼亚处于该地区这一进程的先锋。
That demographic dividend is really going to kick in over the next 10 years as they move towards 2.25, 2.3 birth rates.
随着出生率向 2.25、2.3 迈进，人口红利将在未来 10 年内真正发挥作用。
What should Kenya do to boost productivity in Kenyan agriculture?
肯尼亚应该采取哪些措施来提高肯尼亚农业的生产力？
These are all the easy questions, right?
这些都是很简单的问题，对吧？
For —
对于 —
But it matters a lot to have that saving surplus that later funds industrialization.
但拥有储蓄盈余并为以后的工业化提供资金非常重要。
Yes.
是的。
I don’t think there’s a problem in any of these countries that hasn’t either been solved well or poorly many times in other countries.
我认为这些国家中的任何一个问题在其他国家都没有得到很好或很差的解决。
We know where there’s been successful agricultural revolutions.
我们知道哪里有成功的农业革命。
More recently in countries like Brazil for example, where there’s this very sophisticated and effective interplay between government institutions, R&D, application of new ideas, and the private sector.
最近，在像巴西这样的国家，政府机构、研发、新想法的应用和私营部门之间存在着非常复杂和有效的相互作用。
The government has a very important enabling role if you want to optimize that agricultural transition.
如果你想优化农业转型，政府可以发挥非常重要的推动作用。
What does that role consist of?
这个角色由什么组成？
What should they actually do?
他们实际上应该做什么？
It consists of very specialized research and development, which is specific to the crops, climate, seed types, and so forth that are relevant here, as you saw in Brazil.
它由非常专业的研究和开发组成，具体针对与这里相关的农作物、气候、种子类型等，正如您在巴西看到的那样。
It’s partly to do with infrastructure, cold chain, these kinds of issues.
这在一定程度上与基础设施、冷链等问题有关。
It’s the government playing a catalyst role, but at the same time getting out of the private sector.
政府扮演着催化剂的角色，但同时也退出了私营部门。
It’s a subtle balance, which, at the moment, Kenya probably isn’t particularly good at.
这是一种微妙的平衡，目前肯尼亚可能还不太擅长。
How can Kenya have better risk-sharing against drought, which is a recent problem?
肯尼亚如何更好地分担干旱这一最近出现的问题的风险？
Pardon?
赦免？
Presumably some of it comes from climate change.
据推测，其中一部分来自气候变化。
A lot of it is external.
其中很多是外部的。
The weather’s going to be what the weather will be.
天气会怎样就怎样。
Some of the R&D ideas — Brazil developed hybrid strains of grass and crops that were more drought resistant.
一些研发想法 — 巴西开发了更耐旱的草和作物杂交品种。
You need that R&D element so that your agriculture can adjust to these new climate conditions, and it’s a problem that’s hard for the private sector on its own to solve.
你需要研发元素，以便你的农业能够适应这些新的气候条件，而这是一个私营部门很难独自解决的问题。
Ideally, you need this interplay with really well-managed, scientifically enabled government institutions, and the private sector.
理想情况下，您需要与管理良好、科学支持的政府机构和私营部门进行互动。
Could you —
你能不能 ——
Private sector is very strong in flowers and horticulture here.
这里的私营部门在花卉和园艺方面非常强大。
Most of the heavy lifting has been done by the private sector, so there’s some issues where there is a bigger role for the government to play.
大部分繁重工作都是由私营部门完成的，因此在一些问题上政府可以发挥更大的作用。
Have the universities done enough in terms of agricultural R&D?
大学在农业研发方面做得足够吗？
They’ve contributed.
他们做出了贡献。
There are success stories.
有成功的案例。
Flowers — it’s a massive success story, but I think there’s more that can be done there as well.
Flowers ——这是一个巨大的成功故事，但我认为还可以做更多的事情。
Yes.
是的。
What could Kenya do to develop its tourism resources more effectively?
肯尼亚如何更有效地开发旅游资源？
A lot and very quickly.
很多而且非常快。
Again, it’s an area that we’ve studied and benchmarked against the likes of, say, Costa Rica, which has similar amenities but has had a tenfold growth in visitor numbers.
同样，我们对这个地区进行了研究，并与哥斯达黎加等地区进行了比较，哥斯达黎加拥有类似的设施，但游客数量却增长了十倍。
The tourist assets here are amongst the best in the world, and they’re large-scale.
这里的旅游资源位居世界前列，而且规模宏大。
But the promotion and the support for infrastructure has been extremely poor.
但对基础设施的推广和支持却极差。
Visitors come to Kenya, and they are just completely blown away.
游客来到肯尼亚，都会被彻底震撼。
But so many people don’t understand the quality of that visitor experience.
但很多人不了解游客体验的质量。
There’s a lot of work to be done, and it’s not difficult work, and it’s work that can be done very quickly to promote and support in some key infrastructure areas, including transport and air transport.
有很多工作要做，而且这不是一项困难的工作，而且是可以很快完成的工作，以促进和支持一些关键基础设施领域，包括交通和航空运输。
On Rendeavour’s business model
关于 Rendeavour 的商业模式
As a businessperson, how do you think about when is the right time-window for entering an African market?
作为一名商人，您如何看待进入非洲市场的最佳时机？
That very much depends on your product, your time horizon, and the effort that you’re going to put in.
这在很大程度上取决于您的产品、您的时间范围以及您将投入的努力。
I don’t think you can generalize about that.
我认为你不能对此一概而论。
You were here quite early, before it was obviously a good idea.
你很早就来了，这显然是个好主意。
And what are the other countries that Rendeavour is operating in?
Rendeavour 还在哪些国家/地区开展业务？
Our business model is about being a pioneer and dealing with issues that probably a lot of other investors don’t want to deal with, and getting set, and getting in the best position.
我们的商业模式是成为先驱，处理许多其他投资者可能不想处理的问题，然后做好准备，并处于最佳位置。
In surfing terms, where the — we want to be exactly where the wave’s going to break, before anybody else.
用冲浪术语来说，我们希望先于其他人到达波浪即将破裂的地方。
We also have an asset class where we’re trying to align 30-, 40-year asset class with a 30-, 40-year transition, so it made sense for us to come early and to commit very early.
我们还有一个资产类别，我们试图将 30 年、40 年期的资产类别与 30 年、40 年期的过渡相结合，因此我们尽早介入并尽早做出承诺是有意义的。
That’s not necessarily the case for everybody else.
其他人不一定都是这样。
Why are there so few, you could call them, perpetual projects in Africa?
为什么非洲的永久性项目如此之少？
Projects designed to run on, more or less forever?
项目设计为或多或少永远运行？
I don’t think there’s so many perpetual projects anywhere.
我认为任何地方都没有那么多永久性的项目。
There’s not so many projects that literally have a 50-year time horizon because there’s not really very much 50-year capital.
真正有 50 年期限的项目并不多，因为 50 年的资本并不多。
PE money is supposedly seven years, but you have to sell before the seven years, so PE is really five years, and people think of that as being long-term capital.
PE的钱据说是七年，但是你必须在七年之前卖掉，所以PE实际上是五年，人们认为这是长期资本。
DFI money: DFI, say they don’t have long-term capital at all.
DFI资金：DFI，说他们根本没有长期资本。
It’s one of the many myths about DFIs.
这是关于 DFI 的众多误区之一。
They do have to generate a return.
他们确实必须产生回报。
They do talk about exits.
他们确实谈论退出。
They don’t go into 30-year projects.
他们不会参与 30 年的项目。
That’s very unusual, I think, anywhere.
我认为这在任何地方都是非常不寻常的。
Thinking in terms of perpetuity, you view that as comparative advantage or risk, or you’re all crazy, or some mix of those, or it’s the vision of founders or — ?
从永续性的角度思考，你认为这是比较优势或风险，或者你们都疯了，或者是这些的混合，或者这是创始人的愿景，或者 —— ？
It’s definitely a comparative advantage because on every dimension you’re trying to find less competitive spaces.
这绝对是一个比较优势，因为在每个维度上你都试图找到竞争较少的空间。
You’ve definitely got a need to build these very long-term projects, and there’s virtually no capital available, so that gives you a competitive edge.
您肯定需要建立这些非常长期的项目，而且几乎没有可用的资金，因此这给您带来了竞争优势。
It’s very hard for somebody else to come in and spend billions of dollars on a 40-year project.
对于其他人来说，花数十亿美元参与一个为期 40 年的项目是非常困难的。
It could happen, but it’s very unlikely.
这可能会发生，但可能性很小。
Within Rendeavour, there then has to be some higher level of trust at some level, relationships with investors, or who’s funding you.
在 Rendeavour 内部，必须在某种程度上存在更高水平的信任、与投资者的关系或谁为你提供资金。
Or how do you think about the different pieces that go into Rendeavour, having that comparative advantage?
或者你如何看待 Rendeavour 中具有比较优势的不同部分？
Any really good business has alignment, so it has alignment with its capital structure, with its values, with the selection of its senior executives.
任何真正优秀的企业都具有一致性，因此它与其资本结构、价值观以及高级管理人员的选择都具有一致性。
It’s no use having a 40-year project, and you have some guy who wants to make all his money in the next two years.
有一个 40 年的项目是没有用的，而且有人想在接下来的两年里赚到所有的钱。
There’s an underlying inconsistency there.
这里面存在着根本的不一致。
Capital structure and shareholder identity are vitally important.
资本结构和股东身份至关重要。
It’s very, very easy to bring someone in: they’re very excited about the project; they’ll help fund this module or that module; they know someone who can help us with something.
邀请某人加入是非常非常容易的：他们对这个项目非常兴奋；他们将帮助资助这个或那个模块；他们认识可以帮助我们做某事的人。
But the guy’s got — or the woman has got — a five-year view.
但男人有——或者女人有五年的眼光。
Three years down the line, we got a problem because he’s trying to get an exit, or he’s trying to get some more cash out of something where it’s not optimal in an MVP sense.
三年后，我们遇到了一个问题，因为他试图退出，或者他试图从 MVP 意义上不是最佳的事情中获得更多现金。
So, being very disciplined about shareholder selection is extremely important.
因此，严格遵守股东选择极其重要。
I take it to be your view that economic development is in some sense the default.
我认为您认为经济发展在某种意义上是默认的。
It’s not automatic, but there are forces pushing economies in that direction.
这不是自动的，但有一些力量推动经济朝这个方向发展。
If you had to reduce that view down to your most fundamental belief, where does that view come from?
如果你必须将这种观点简化为你最基本的信念，那么这种观点从何而来？
It started in New Zealand working with you, because we saw how a country could be changed, and we saw how growth could be catalyzed.
它始于新西兰与您合作，因为我们看到了如何改变一个国家，我们看到了如何促进增长。
I guess that opened my mind to change.
我想这开启了我改变的想法。
I have this idea that humans evolved over a period of time where no change happened, so we are wired to think that the world doesn’t actually fundamentally change.
我的观点是，人类在一段没有发生任何变化的时间内进化，所以我们自然而然地认为世界实际上并没有发生根本性的变化。
I think that’s like a cognitive default, but that’s actually at variance with the world’s experience since the Industrial Revolution.
我认为这就像一种认知默认，但这实际上与工业革命以来世界的经验不一致。
The experience since the Industrial Revolution is, a wider and wider group of countries with a more and more diverse set of institutional settings and styles of government have experienced economic takeoff and very high rates of growth by historical standards.
工业革命以来的经验是，越来越多的、制度设置和政府风格越来越多样化的国家经历了经济腾飞和以历史标准衡量的非常高的增长率。
There’s a disconnect between people — the way people think — and what has actually happened.
人们的思维方式与实际发生的事情之间存在脱节。
My default setting is, unless you do things really, really, really badly, per capita GDP is going to grow, and it’s probably going to grow quite quickly.
我的默认设置是，除非你做得非常、非常、非常糟糕，否则人均GDP将会增长，而且可能会增长得相当快。
That’s what’s happened in most countries in the world.
这就是世界上大多数国家所发生的情况。
Whereas people look at Africa, and they look at the past, and they have got this default setting, “Probably nothing’s going to change.” But in my mind, the bias is massively to change, more change, more growth.
当人们审视非洲、审视过去时，他们有这样的默认设置：“可能什么都不会改变。”但在我看来，人们的偏见是大规模改变，更多的改变，更多的增长。
What do you think is the book that has influenced you most?
您认为对您影响最大的一本书是什么？
It’s a very good question.
这是一个非常好的问题。
I think I’ve read just about everything in development.
我想我已经阅读了开发中的所有内容。
There’s nothing I really like very much.
没有什么是我真正非常喜欢的。
Development is a black box.
开发是一个黑匣子。
I don’t think there’s anything that has much predictive power.
我认为没有什么东西具有很强的预测能力。
There’s a lot of ex post explanations, whether they be policy settings, location, culture.
有很多事后解释，无论是政策设置、地点还是文化。
I think 90% of them are ex post; very few of them are predictive.
我认为其中90%是事后的；其中很少有预测性的。
Some of them are just tautologies.
其中一些只是同义反复。
I really like factualization.
我真的很喜欢事实化。
It’s descriptive more than analytical, but it just makes it clear that most of the world has been on a very similar development trajectory.
它的描述性多于分析性，但它只是清楚地表明世界上大部分地区都处于非常相似的发展轨迹。
It’s just not sequenced.
只是没有排序。
Sweden started early; Ethiopia started late.
瑞典起步较早；埃塞俄比亚起步较晚。
But the nature of the transition and the inevitability of that transition, other than very extreme circumstances, is kind of the same.
但除了非常极端的情况之外，过渡的性质和过渡的必然性是相同的。
What do you think economists get wrong?
您认为经济学家犯了什么错误？
I don’t think we really understand development at all, because if we could, we could predict it.
我认为我们根本不了解发展，因为如果我们可以的话，我们就可以预测它。
We can predict virtually nothing.
我们几乎无法预测任何事情。
It’s just too complicated.
太复杂了。
It’s too connected with politics.
这和政治太相关了。
I think there’s a lot of feedback loops and elements of development that we don’t understand properly.
我认为有很多反馈循环和开发要素我们没有正确理解。
We certainly can’t quantify them because the development’s happening in such a wide range of settings, from communism dictatorships through to very liberal systems and with all different kinds of industrial — on every dimension, there’s a huge range of variables.
我们当然无法量化它们，因为发展发生在如此广泛的环境中，从共产主义独裁到非常自由的制度以及各种不同类型的工业——在每个维度上，都存在巨大的变量。
On New Zealand
在新西兰
To go back to New Zealand, what is the most positive future in terms of economic growth for New Zealand?
回到新西兰，新西兰经济增长最乐观的未来是什么？
What does that look like?
那看起来像什么？
What should be done?
应该做什么？
Well, as you know, I’m very negative about New Zealand.
嗯，如你所知，我对新西兰非常负面。
We have very sadly been a huge underperformer on just about every economic and social indicator you can look at.
非常遗憾的是，我们在几乎所有你能看到的经济和社会指标上都表现不佳。
I think there’s partly a cultural element.
我认为部分是文化因素。
I’ve thought that for a long time.
我已经这么想了很长时间了。
I used to think that the very high immigration that we had would put some spark and some dynamism back into our society.
我曾经认为，我们拥有的大量移民会给我们的社会带来一些火花和活力。
That hasn’t been happening.
但这种情况并没有发生。
There’s no sign.
没有任何迹象。
Do you think that’s the immigrants who self-select to going to New Zealand, or they’re somehow swamped by native Kiwi culture, or?
您认为这些移民是自愿选择去新西兰的，还是他们被新西兰本土文化所淹没？
I think it’s primary the latter, yes, and self-selection.
我认为主要是后者，是的，还有自我选择。
You won’t go there if you don’t like that culture.
如果你不喜欢那种文化，你就不会去那里。
If you want to go to somewhere more dynamic, more competitive, you’ll go to Australia.
如果你想去更有活力、更有竞争力的地方，你会去澳大利亚。
That reinforces their culture.
这强化了他们的文化。
I see some hope in Māori iwi and indigenous businesses, contrary to what most people would think.
我在毛利毛利人和土著企业中看到了一些希望，这与大多数人的想法相反。
They bring a different culture.
他们带来了不同的文化。
They bring a more open-minded international culture in many ways.
他们在很多方面带来了更加开放的国际文化。
They are being very successful.
他们非常成功。
But that’s the small part of our economy.
但这只是我们经济的一小部分。
Yes, I don’t see a lot of silver linings.
是的，我没有看到太多一线希望。
If you look back on the New Zealand asset sales of the 1980s, 1990s, how well do you think they went?
如果你回顾 20 世纪 80 年代、90 年代的新西兰资产出售，你认为它们进展得如何？
What did we learn from that experience?
我们从这次经历中学到了什么？
I think — clearly, I’m biased.
我认为 —— 显然，我有偏见。
I think they went extremely well.
我认为他们进展得非常好。
You have to judge that by the productivity improvement in the likes of telecoms, power, forestry.
你必须通过电信、电力、林业等领域生产率的提高来判断这一点。
These were incredibly poorly managed assets, hugely wasteful, very low levels of innovation and archaic levels of technology, and unleashed a lot of value creation.
这些资产管理极其不善，浪费巨大，创新水平非常低，技术水平陈旧，但却释放了大量的价值创造。
I think societies that can’t take the medicine generally don’t perform very well.
我认为不能服药的社会通常表现不佳。
New Zealanders are still obsessed with the fact that the ’80s reforms, there were so many things wrong with them, notwithstanding the fact that virtually every change has withstood the test of time and hasn’t been reversed.
新西兰人仍然对80年代的改革耿耿于怀，尽管事实上每一次改革都经受住了时间的考验，而且没有被逆转，但80年代的改革有很多问题。
You see it in the same — Thatcher’s to blame for so many things that are wrong in the UK, but if it’s so bad, just go ahead and reverse everything she did.
你也可以看到同样的情况——英国的许多错误都应归咎于撒切尔夫人，但如果情况如此糟糕，那就继续吧，扭转她所做的一切。
I think countries that have been successful, they have wave after wave of reform, change, innovation and they’re good at it.
我认为成功的国家会经历一波又一波的改革、变革和创新，而且他们擅长这些。
The change is painful.
这种改变是痛苦的。
There’s structural adjustment costs.
存在结构调整成本。
But if you’re good at absorbing that, understanding that, and moving on to the next round of change, as the Chinese have in some ways, that’s a huge strength.
但如果你善于吸收这一点，理解这一点，并继续进行下一轮变革，就像中国人在某些方面所做的那样，那就是巨大的优势。
If you can’t do that, it’s a big weakness.
如果你做不到这一点，那就是一个很大的弱点。
At least for a while, the New Zealand business community seemed to be strongly behind reforms for your markets, free trade.
至少在一段时间内，新西兰商界似乎强烈支持市场改革和自由贸易。
That’s fairly exceptional.
这是相当特殊的。
Was that just luck, or are there organic forces behind that?
这只是运气，还是背后有内在的力量？
I think fundamentally, we’d had quite an entrepreneurial society.
我认为从根本上来说，我们有一个相当具有创业精神的社会。
People went to New Zealand; Indigenous people went to New Zealand.
人们去了新西兰；原住民去了新西兰。
It was an easy place.
这是一个很容易的地方。
They had to build their lives.
他们必须建立自己的生活。
They had to build communities.
他们必须建立社区。
They had to build infrastructure.
他们必须建设基础设施。
They had to be pioneering in nature.
他们必须具有开拓性。
They had to be, in some sense, entrepreneurial.
从某种意义上说，他们必须具有企业家精神。
And New Zealand ended up as one of the richest countries in the world with one of the best education and one of the best health systems in the world.
新西兰最终成为世界上最富有的国家之一，拥有世界上最好的教育之一和世界上最好的卫生系统之一。
It’s in the facts.
这是事实。
But at some point, we put our feet up.
但在某些时候，我们会站起来。
Probably you have to go back to the ’60s and ’70s, and complacency crept in many dimensions.
也许你必须回到 60 年代和 70 年代，自满情绪在许多方面蔓延。
The most obvious one is education.
最明显的一个是教育。
We had objectively one of the best education systems in the world.
客观上，我们拥有世界上最好的教育体系之一。
Kiwis were leading thinkers in many areas.
新西兰人是许多领域的领先思想家。
They were successful internationally.
他们在国际上取得了成功。
But we have one of the worst and most unequal education systems in the OECD today.
但我们拥有当今经合组织中最糟糕、最不平等的教育体系之一。
We have third-world levels of educational attainment for subsectors of our community.
我们社区各部门的教育程度处于第三世界水平。
Do you have a sense of how to reform that?
您知道如何对此进行改革吗？
I think New Zealand is about, as you know, one of the most analyzed or overanalyzed countries in every area of reform.
我认为，正如你所知，新西兰是在各个改革领域被分析最多或被过度分析的国家之一。
It’s not a technical issue, again.
这又不是技术问题。
Every area of reform, the work has been done.
各个领域的改革、工作都已做好。
It’s sitting on the shelf.
它坐在架子上。
It comes back to the desire of society for change and the desire of the politicians to implement that change.
这又回到了社会对变革的渴望以及政治家实施变革的渴望。
How important is it that it’s relatively hard to build new housing near Auckland?
在奥克兰附近建造新住房相对困难，这有多重要？
I know that’s eased somewhat due to legal changes, but still, there’s a movement.
我知道由于法律的变化，这种情况有所缓解，但仍然存在一些变化。
YIMBY for Auckland and New Zealand.
YIMBY 代表奥克兰和新西兰。
Is that a major issue or a minor issue?
这是一个大问题还是一个小问题？
It’s a horrific issue.
这是一个可怕的问题。
Auckland has some of the least affordable housing in the world, I think number five, last time I looked.
奥克兰有一些世界上最难负担的住房，我上次看时认为是第五名。
Yet only 2 percent of New Zealand is built upon.
然而，新西兰只有 2% 的土地是在此基础上建造的。
It’s just a massive paradox.
这只是一个巨大的悖论。
We’re meant to be the country that believes in a fair go, but it’s hugely hypocritical.
我们本应成为一个相信公平的国家，但这是非常虚伪的。
If you’re a bus driver, you’re never going to buy a house, and a huge proportion of your income is going to go to rent.
如果你是一名公交车司机，你永远不会买房子，你收入的很大一部分将用于租房。
The biggest source of inequality in New Zealand is housing costs, which through regulatory change could be fixed.
新西兰不平等的最大根源是住房成本，这一问题可以通过监管改革来解决。
Just look at Tatu City: We can build a good apartment that anyone would be happy to live in for $35,000.
看看塔图市吧：我们花 35,000 美元就能建造一套任何人都乐意居住的好公寓。
In Auckland, that’s going to cost you $400,000.
在奥克兰，这将花费你 40 万澳元。
And that could be changed in months.
这可能会在几个月内改变。
Everyone knows Queenstown, Milford Sound, but what’s the most underrated part of New Zealand?
每个人都知道皇后镇、米尔福德湾，但新西兰最被低估的地方是哪里？
Oh, you —
哦，你 ——
Taranaki?
塔拉纳基？
Are you going to tell me it’s Taranaki?
你要告诉我这是塔拉纳基吗？
Beautiful places off the beaten track.
人迹罕至的美丽地方。
Yes.
是的。
Somewhere in the North Island?
在北岛的某个地方？
There’s gorgeous pockets everywhere through that.
到处都是华丽的口袋。
Absolutely beautiful country.
绝对美丽的国家。
Yes, with lovely, really friendly people and very diverse and specific environments.
是的，有可爱、非常友好的人们以及非常多样化和特定的环境。
Yes, if you’re going there, you should get off — go to the tourist highlights, but go off the beaten track, and you’ll see so many wonderful, beautiful places, and you’ll meet a lot of very friendly people.
是的，如果你要去那里，你应该下车 ——去旅游景点，但是走出人迹罕至的地方，你会看到很多美妙、美丽的地方，你会遇到很多非常友好的人。
Growing up in Taranaki in particular, how did that shape you and your views?
特别是在塔拉纳基长大，这对你和你的观点有何影响？
You’re not from Auckland, you’re not from Wellington.
你不是奥克兰人，也不是惠灵顿人。
Outsider within New Zealand.
新西兰境内的局外人。
I was at the end of that pioneering period where you grew up with grandparents who’d lived through the Depression and had lived through the war.
我正处于那个开拓时期的末期，在那个时期，你和祖父母一起长大，他们经历过大萧条和战争。
The values that were engendered in that period would — I was at the tail end of when that was being passed on to people.
那个时期产生的价值观将 —— 我正处于将其传递给人们的最后阶段。
At that time, New Zealand was a leader.
当时，新西兰处于领先地位。
You felt as a New Zealander, we could take anybody on, and we could beat them, whether it was sport, economic performance, even areas of innovation.
你觉得作为一名新西兰人，我们可以挑战任何人，我们可以击败他们，无论是体育、经济表现，甚至是创新领域。
I guess that’s always been part of me.
我想这一直是我的一部分。
How do you think playing rugby early on influenced how you approached the world?
您认为早期打橄榄球对您接触世界的方式有何影响？
It was more that when you played rugby, it was competitive.
更重要的是，当你打橄榄球时，它是有竞争力的。
From a very young age in terms of — it was very monocultural, so it was very limiting in a way, but it was very competitive.
从很小的时候起，文化就非常单一，因此在某种程度上受到很大限制，但竞争非常激烈。
It was serious.
事情很严重。
You had to train.
你必须训练。
It didn’t matter what the weather conditions were, you were going out in your bare feet and playing, and you were going to enjoy it.
无论天气条件如何，你都可以赤脚出去玩耍，并且你会享受它。
You did enjoy it.
你确实很享受。
Yes, attention to detail, training.
是的，注重细节，培训。
It’s a paradox: The All Blacks, everyone expects them to be the best team in the world and to prepare and play to the nth degree.
这是一个悖论：全黑队，每个人都期望他们成为世界上最好的球队，并做好准备并发挥到极致。
But we’re not like that in everything else we do.
但我们所做的其他事情并非如此。
It’s a weird paradox we’ve got.
这是我们遇到的一个奇怪的悖论。
Picked some of that up as a child.
小时候捡到的一些。
What do you find inspiring about rugby in Kenya?
您觉得肯尼亚橄榄球运动有什么启发？
Well, we went and watched the children from slums play rugby, village children playing.
好吧，我们去看了贫民窟的孩子们打橄榄球，乡村的孩子们玩耍。
I find it enormously inspiring.
我发现它非常鼓舞人心。
I see the sheer joy that children have of just being supported to go out and kick a ball around.
我看到孩子们在有人支持出去踢球时所感受到的纯粹的快乐。
I see their school levels, I see their dedication.
我看到他们的学校水平，我看到他们的奉献精神。
They’re physically tough.
他们身体强壮。
They want to train; they want to learn.
他们想要训练；他们想学习。
They’re not grumbling.
他们没有抱怨。
They are physically strong.
他们身体强壮。
There were no parents there, right?
那里没有父母，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
Reminded me of my childhood.
让我想起了我的童年。
They’re not being babied.
他们没有被宠坏。
It was pretty full on, — the girls’ was pretty full-on.
内容非常丰富， ——女孩们的内容非常丰富。
They were getting knocked around and bruised, but they were loving it.
他们被撞得遍体鳞伤，但他们很喜欢这样。
They were laughing it up.
他们笑得很开心。
If you think about New Zealand culture — cinema, books, music — what is it from New Zealand culture that inspires you or has stuck with you?
如果您想到新西兰文化 ——“电影、书籍、音乐”—— 新西兰文化中的哪些内容启发了您或让您难以忘怀？
We were very strong in a lot of areas.
我们在很多领域都非常强大。
A Kiwi split the atom.
猕猴桃分裂了原子。
A Kiwi was the first person to climb Everest.
新西兰人是第一个登上珠穆朗玛峰的人。
Economically, we were top three in the world.
经济上，我们排在世界前三。
As I said, things like social services — we were a leader.
正如我所说，在社会服务等方面，我们是领导者。
Yes, why not be the best?
是啊，为什么不成为最好的呢？
Why not go the extra mile?
为什么不加倍努力呢？
Why be mediocre with anything, and why think that Kenya can’t take the world on?
为什么在任何事情上都表现平庸，为什么认为肯尼亚无法与世界抗衡？
I guess that’s a very dominant part of my thinking.
我想这是我思想的一个非常重要的部分。
I genuinely and 100% believe anything is possible in Kenya.
我真诚地、百分百地相信在肯尼亚一切皆有可能。
It’s just how determined you are, how organized you are.
关键在于你的决心有多大，你的组织能力有多强。
What is it from Russian culture that has stuck with you?
俄罗斯文化中的什么元素让你印象深刻？
Quite a lot, I would say: Not prejudging people.
我想说的是：不要预先判断别人。
Not believing in stereotypes.
不相信刻板印象。
Really, really doing your homework and understanding issues deeply — and the history of issues, and how history has shaped how people think and how they behave — before you judge them or let alone try and influence them.
真的，在你评判他们之前，真正做好功课并深入理解问题——以及问题的历史，以及历史如何塑造人们的思维方式和行为方式——更不用说尝试影响他们了。
Resilience, intellectual capacity.
韧性、智力。
I learned a lot.
我学到了很多。
If you were to contrast Kiwi culture and Australian culture, how would you boil that down to the smallest number of dimensions?
如果你要对比新西兰文化和澳大利亚文化，你会如何将其归结为最小的维度？
I think Australia is much more competitive.
我认为澳大利亚更有竞争力。
They’re comfortable being competitive.
他们乐于竞争。
Kiwis are very polite, and cultural surveys show this.
新西兰人非常有礼貌，文化调查表明了这一点。
We’re not very assertive at all.
我们一点也不自信。
We find Australians offensive because they’re in your face, but they’re actually just telling you the truth, and they’re cutting to the chase and they’re getting stuff done.
我们觉得澳大利亚人令人反感，因为他们当着你的面，但他们实际上只是告诉你真相，他们开门见山，他们正在把事情做好。
I think time has shown they’ve turned out to be a much more dynamic, outward-looking, competitive, and vibrant economy.
我认为时间已经证明它们已经成为一个更具活力、外向、竞争性和活力的经济体。
We are very closed.
我们非常封闭。
We’re one of the most restrictive countries in the world for FDI, but yet we’re meant to be friendly, hospitable people.
我们是世界上对外国直接投资限制最严格的国家之一，但我们本应成为友好、好客的人民。
That full-on competition, that in-your-face culture, I think it’s very different on each side of Tasmania.
那种全面的竞争，那种面对面的文化，我认为塔斯马尼亚的两边都非常不同。
How long have you lived in Kenya now?
您在肯尼亚住了多长时间了？
I’ve been coming here for 15 years a lot, and my wife and I have been living here for three years.
15年来我经常来这里，我和我的妻子也在这里住了三年。
Putting aside all the projects, the business and all that, but just how has living in Kenya changed you?
抛开所有的项目、业务等等，但肯尼亚的生活给你带来了怎样的改变呢？
Absolutely, out of 10 it’s a 10, that’s for sure.
当然，满分 10 分就是 10 分，这是肯定的。
It’s a wonderful country, extremely friendly people, very diverse community, gorgeous environment, lovely climate.
这是一个美妙的国家，极其友好的人民，非常多元化的社区，优美的环境，宜人的气候。
But you’ve got the energy — you drive through the local community, you can see the energy, you can see how every three to six months it’s changing, it’s developing.
但你有能量 ——你开车穿过当地社区，你可以看到能量，你可以看到它每三到六个月就发生变化、发展。
There’s aspiration right through society.
整个社会都有渴望。
All of Kenya — yes, there’s huge problems, but all of Kenya thinks that this place is going to change, and they want it to change.
整个肯尼亚——是的，存在巨大的问题，但整个肯尼亚都认为这个地方将会改变，他们希望它改变。
Amazing work ethic and the chance to do big, big projects that can be transformational that you don’t really have in so many places.
令人惊叹的职业道德和完成大型项目的机会，这些项目可以带来变革，这是你在很多地方都没有的。
So, a lot of pluses.
所以，有很多优点。
Let’s say an educated Westerner who has traveled a lot is pondering a two-week trip to Kenya.
假设一位受过良好教育、经常旅行的西方人正在考虑前往肯尼亚进行为期两周的旅行。
Putting aside safari, which everyone will do and of course they fly into Nairobi, but what else should they be doing or thinking about or looking for?
抛开每个人都会做的旅行，当然他们还会飞往内罗毕，但他们还应该做什么、思考或寻找什么呢？
Definitely the cultural experiences and getting — again — off the beaten track where there’s not a lot of tourism, maybe not a lot of development: Very isolated areas where traditional lifestyle is still as it would’ve been many hundreds of years ago.
绝对是文化体验和“再次”离开人迹罕至的地方，那里没有太多的旅游业，也许没有太多的开发：非常偏僻的地区，传统的生活方式仍然像几百年前一样。
You go to the north to do that, or all over?
你去北方做那件事，还是全部结束？
You go probably to the far north, yes, Turkana or Samburu area.
你可能会去最北的地方，是的，图尔卡纳或桑布鲁地区。
Also, you’re going to go somewhere very beautiful.
另外，你要去一个非常美丽的地方。
You may not see a lot of lions, but you’re going to see gorgeous scenery.
你可能不会看到很多狮子，但你会看到美丽的风景。
You’re going to see extremely interesting people.
你会看到非常有趣的人。
And on the coast, what should you do?
在海岸上，你应该做什么？
The coast is very diverse, so you can go to where all the people are, Diani Beach.
海岸非常多样化，所以你可以去所有人都在的地方——迪亚尼海滩。
You can go north to Lamu, which is more the Swahili experience.
可以向北前往拉穆，这里更有斯瓦希里语的体验。
Or you can go south and get somewhere absolutely gorgeous and isolated.
或者你也可以去南方，去一个绝对美丽又偏僻的地方。
I had my first dive here a few weeks ago.
几周前我在这里第一次潜水。
I’m literally in the water for 45 seconds.
我实际上在水里待了 45 秒。
I’m still going down and a seven-meter whale shark cruises past me about four meters away.
我仍在下降，一条七米长的鲸鲨在大约四米外从我身边游过。
The range of experience here that’s so accessible is fantastic.
这里的体验范围如此便捷，真是太棒了。
Very last question.
最后一个问题。
What is the next thing you will try to learn?
您接下来要尝试学习的是什么？
I’m trying to understand, and I’m trying to help my team to understand, the best way to manage and work with people in Africa.
我正在努力了解，并努力帮助我的团队了解管理非洲人民并与非洲人民合作的最佳方式。
Because I think we thought we knew a lot, but I think there’s some things we don’t understand as well as we might.
因为我认为我们认为我们知道很多，但我认为有些事情我们并没有理解得那么好。
How do we get the most and create the most opportunity for our African human resource?
我们如何为非洲人力资源获得最多并创造最多的机会？
Stephen Jennings, thank you very much.
斯蒂芬·詹宁斯，非常感谢你。
Thanks so much, Tyler.
非常感谢，泰勒。