Sheilagh Ogilvie on Epidemics, Guilds, and the Persistence of Bad Institutions (Ep. 237)
Thanks to a listener who sponsored this transcript “in memory of Charlotte Shapiro, my beloved grandmother who would have appreciated Mercatus and its mission.”
感谢一位听众赞助了这份文字记录，“以纪念夏洛特·夏皮罗，我深爱的祖母，她会欣赏 Mercatus 及其使命。”
Hello, everyone.
大家好。
Welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
欢迎回到与泰勒对话。
Today, I’m chatting with Sheilagh Ogilvie, who is a historian and an economic historian.
今天，我正在与希拉·奥格尔维（Sheilagh Ogilvie）聊天，她是一位历史学家和经济史学家。
She is currently at All Souls College of Oxford, formerly of Cambridge University.
她目前在牛津万灵学院（原剑桥大学）就读。
Originally hails from, I believe, Western Canada.
我相信最初来自加拿大西部。
She has a new book out, which is excellent.
她出了一本新书，非常棒。
The title is Controlling Contagion: Epidemics and Institutions from the Black Death to COVID.
标题是“控制传染病：从黑死病到新冠肺炎的流行病和制度”。
Sheilagh, welcome.
希拉，欢迎。
It’s a pleasure to be here.
很高兴来到这里。
The history of epidemics — when there were earlier pandemics, how large would a GDP decline typically be?
流行病的历史 ——当发生较早的流行病时，GDP 通常会下降多少？
How bad were they for economies?
它们对经济有多糟糕？
They were really bad for economies.
它们对经济确实不利。
First, they were bad because people were really frightened because there was nothing they felt that they could do about it personally.
首先，它们很糟糕，因为人们真的很害怕，因为他们觉得自己对此无能为力。
So, they withdrew from the market voluntarily, as it were.
因此，他们可以说是自愿退出市场。
Then on top of that, there were all sorts of measures to try to limit the spread of contagion, and that also, of course, had an impact on the economy.
除此之外，还有各种各样的措施试图限制传染病的蔓延，这当然也对经济产生了影响。
So, it was a double whammy as far as people in the past were concerned.
因此，对于过去的人们来说，这是双重打击。
Do you have a sense of the relative importance of those two factors?
您是否了解这两个因素的相对重要性？
I have a table in the book where I try to put together probably 15 or 16 quantitative examples that we have from shortly after the Black Death straight through to the present day, and it varied hugely.
我在书中有一个表格，我试图将我们从黑死病爆发后不久一直到今天的大约 15 或 16 个定量例子放在一起，它们差异很大。
On the whole, it seems as if voluntary market withdrawal was pretty high in the medieval and early modern period.
总体而言，在中世纪和近代早期，自愿退出市场的比例似乎相当高。
But people were poorer then, and so the implications of withdrawing from the market were really big for them because a lot of them didn’t have any cushion of savings.
但当时人们更穷，因此退出市场对他们的影响确实很大，因为他们中的很多人没有任何储蓄缓冲。
Until the late medieval period, there was no tendency for the local community or the state to provide support for people who observed lockdown.
直到中世纪晚期，当地社区或国家都没有为遵守封锁的人们提供支持的趋势。
I think there were really big differences compared to nowadays, but on the whole, it looks like voluntary market withdrawal was really higher in past epidemics than it was, for instance, during influenza in the early 20th century or COVID in the early 21st.
我认为与现在相比确实存在很大差异，但总体而言，过去流行病中的自愿退出市场确实比20世纪初的流感或21世纪初的新冠肺炎期间要高。
The range of GDP declines — what would those numbers be?
GDP 下降幅度 — 这些数字是多少？
I think that’s a question that should be answered, but we can’t answer it right now.
我认为这是一个应该回答的问题，但我们现在无法回答。
All we can observe is the degree to which people stopped buying beer in a particular tavern in a Middle Eastern city in the 15th century.
我们所能观察到的只是 15 世纪中东城市某家特定小酒馆中人们不再购买啤酒的程度。
We can’t generalize that to the whole of the economy.
我们不能将其推广到整个经济。
In a sense, we’re just trying to have good macroeconomic estimates of what GDP was for a lot of these economies.
从某种意义上说，我们只是试图对其中许多经济体的 GDP 进行良好的宏观经济估计。
Let’s say 50 percent to 60 percent, sometimes 90 percent withdrawal from the market of individuals.
假设 50% 到 60%，有时甚至 90% 的人退出个人市场。
For instance, the merchant use of the postal system in 17th century Italian cities during plagues went down 90 percent compared to what it normally was.
例如，在 17 世纪意大利城市发生瘟疫期间，商业对邮政系统的使用量比正常情况下减少了 90%。
Why did the 1969 pandemic not have bigger economic effects?
为什么 1969 年的大流行没有产生更大的经济影响？
The ’69 flu pandemic?
69 年流感大流行？
Right.
正确的。
It just wasn’t that bad a flu, or people ignored it, or what happened?
只是流感并没有那么严重，或者人们忽视了它，或者发生了什么？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
We thought we didn’t even need to study these things until recently.
直到最近我们才认为我们甚至不需要研究这些东西。
Looking at how people responded to different pandemics is .
看看人们如何应对不同的流行病是。
.
。
.
。
I remember I was a kid at the time that pandemic was going on, but we didn’t really pay attention to it in 1969.
我记得当时大流行正在发生，我还是个孩子，但 1969 年我们并没有真正关注它。
Same here.
这里也一样。
I remember 1969, but I don’t remember there was a pandemic.
我记得 1969 年，但不记得有过大流行。
I remember.
我记得。
Was it called the Spanish Flu or the Hong Kong flu?
它被称为西班牙流感还是香港流感？
Hong Kong flu, I believe.
我相信是香港流感。
It’s always blamed on foreigners.
总是把责任归咎于外国人。
That is something that goes right back to the Black Death.
这可以追溯到黑死病。
On the silver lining to the Black Death
黑死病的一线希望
Now, one commonly hears the claim that the Black Death — of course, it was terrible for society, terrible for those who died, but that in some ways — medium term, longer term — it had positive effects.
现在，人们经常听到这样一种说法：黑死病 ——当然，它对社会来说是可怕的，对死者来说是可怕的，但在某些方面——“中期、长期”——它产生了积极的影响。
That wages went up, that spurred labor-saving innovation, helped Europe grow.
工资上涨刺激了劳动力节约型创新，帮助欧洲发展。
Is there any truth to that?
这有道理吗？
Or is that just a story that’s fabricated?
或者这只是一个编造的故事？
My personal view is that it is mostly a happy story, a takeaway from something that we all intuitively know was terrible.
我个人的观点是，这主要是一个快乐的故事，是我们直觉上知道的可怕事情的一个教训。
I think the sheer scale of the human suffering or death — 30 percent to 60 percent of the European and Middle Eastern population died.
我认为人类遭受的痛苦或死亡的规模是巨大的——欧洲和中东地区有 30% 到 60% 的人口死亡。
Compared to modern pandemics, it’s the worst pandemic we have any information about.
与现代流行病相比，这是我们所掌握的最严重的流行病。
Just a lot of people died.
只是死了很多人。
Walking through villages and towns after the Black Death would’ve been way worse than Dresden after the Second World War or Altadena after the fires a month ago.
黑死病之后步行穿过村庄和城镇会比第二次世界大战后的德累斯顿或一个月前火灾后的阿尔塔迪纳糟糕得多。
Even the survivors — in the longer term, maybe their wages went up, and in some cases their bargaining ability vis-à-vis employers went up, but for the time being, their employers were dead.
即使是幸存者——从长远来看，也许他们的工资上涨了，在某些情况下他们与雇主的讨价还价能力也提高了，但暂时他们的雇主已经死了。
Their villages were deserted.
他们的村庄荒无人烟。
They were basically walking around having lost one- to two-thirds of their neighbors.
他们基本上是在失去三分之二的邻居后四处走动。
It took a while for the beneficial redistributional effects to kick in.
有益的再分配效应需要一段时间才能发挥作用。
It wasn’t until the later 14th or even the early 15th century that the wage effects really started redistributing towards the workers and away from the owners of land and capital.
直到 14 世纪末甚至 15 世纪初，工资效应才真正开始从土地和资本所有者手中重新分配给工人。
The other thing is that the effects were really different in different societies.
另一件事是，不同社会的影响确实不同。
The happy story is one that we tell ourselves about Western Europe, where there was a comparatively free bargain that went on between workers and employers.
我们给自己讲的一个关于西欧的快乐故事，那里的工人和雇主之间进行着相对自由的讨价还价。
In Eastern Europe, the shortage of labor after the Black Death actually created an incentive for the major employers who were the feudal landlords to strengthen their controls, their restrictions over their serfs, over their unfree peasants.
在东欧，黑死病之后的劳动力短缺实际上激励了封建地主的主要雇主加强对农奴和不自由农民的控制和限制。
You actually get something called the second serfdom coming into effect, where the incentives for landlords to coerce unfree labor become really strong when you have very little labor.
实际上，所谓的第二次农奴制正在生效，当你的劳动力很少时，地主强迫不自由劳动力的动机就会变得非常强烈。
So, Eastern Europe goes into serfdom.
于是，东欧进入了农奴制。
Western Europe frees itself from serfdom.
西欧摆脱了农奴制。
Even the happy story — it’s regionally very various.
即使是快乐的故事——也因地区而异。
Just from a theory point of view, I’ve never understood the happy story.
仅从理论角度来看，我一直无法理解这个快乐的故事。
I see that the supply of labor goes down, but one would think the demand for labor and the products of labor would go down more or less proportionally.
我看到劳动力的供给下降了，但人们会认为对劳动力和劳动产品的需求或多或少会成比例地下降。
Why is there any reason to expect real wages to go up in that scenario?
在这种情况下，为什么有理由预期实际工资会上涨？
The wage evidence actually does suggest that gradually, as the economy recovered after the Black Death in Western Europe, wages went up.
工资证据确实表明，随着西欧黑死病后经济的复苏，工资逐渐上涨。
Employers actually immediately start complaining to the government, “Oh, you have to suppress wages.
雇主实际上立即开始向政府抱怨，“哦，你必须压低工资。
There aren’t enough servants.
仆人不够。
There aren’t enough laborers.” Even in Western Europe, the rulers try to do that.
没有足够的劳动力。”即使在西欧，统治者也试图这样做。
There was a perception, at any rate, that workers felt that they were able to demand higher wages, and in particular, females were demanding higher wages.
无论如何，人们认为工人们认为他们能够要求更高的工资，特别是女性要求更高的工资。
This was seen as really outrageous because women were supposed to be obedient, disciplined workers, and here they were saying, “I’m going to leave the village unless you increase my wages.” Although your reasoning is right, I think the balance of the effect really was to increase wage pressure.
这被认为是非常令人愤慨的，因为女性应该是听话、遵守纪律的工人，而她们在这里却说：“除非你们增加我的工资，否则我就要离开村庄。”虽然你的推理是对的，但我认为效果的平衡确实是增加了工资压力。
But how the society responded to it depended a lot on whether the employers could get the state on their side to help suppress the wage demands.
但社会对此的反应在很大程度上取决于雇主能否让国家站在他们一边，帮助压制工资要求。
Let’s say we send you back in time, let’s say to southwestern Germany.
假设我们将您送回过去，比如说德国西南部。
It’s an area you know a lot about, during the Black Death, and you can give people advice, what they should do to cope.
在黑死病期间，这是一个你非常了解的领域，你可以为人们提供建议，告诉他们应该采取什么措施来应对。
What do you tell them?
你告诉他们什么？
That’s a very good question.
这是一个很好的问题。
Maybe the first thing I would say is, don’t believe what your priest says, because one of the things I do in the book is I try to assess the effect of different social institutions.
也许我要说的第一件事是，不要相信你的牧师所说的话，因为我在书中所做的一件事就是尝试评估不同社会制度的影响。
One of them is religion.
其中之一就是宗教。
Although religion did provide consolation and a certain amount of charitable support, one of the very, very salient things it did during the Black Death was that most religious figures admonished people that, in order to induce God to take away the plague, it was essential for them to get together in processions and church services, not observe social distancing, but engage in super spreader events.
尽管宗教确实提供了安慰和一定量的慈善支持，但它在黑死病期间所做的非常非常显着的事情之一是，大多数宗教人士告诫人们，为了诱导上帝带走瘟疫，他们必须聚集在游行和教堂礼拜中，而不是遵守社交距离，而是参与超级传播者活动。
Perhaps I was joking slightly to say don’t listen to your parish priest, but in the short term, I would definitely have said that.
也许我是在开玩笑说不要听你的教区牧师的话，但从短期来看，我肯定会这么说。
The question about what to do in the longer term is a good one because just allowing people to decide for themselves about whether to withdraw from the market or whether to keep away from their neighbors is one partial solution.
从长远来看该怎么办的问题是一个很好的问题，因为让人们自己决定是否退出市场或是否远离邻居只是部分解决方案。
We know that people withdraw from the market spontaneously, even nowadays and in most historical societies, but they probably don’t withdraw as much as they would if they were taking into account the effect of their actions on other people.
我们知道，即使在当今和大多数历史社会中，人们也会自发地退出市场，但如果考虑到自己的行为对其他人的影响，他们的退出程度可能不会那么高。
Although I would be advising the villagers to keep your market transactions going — it’s the thing that’s going to generate enough resources for you to pay for recovery and invest in health inputs and so on — I would be saying, “You might want to get together within your community to think about observing some sanitation, some social distancing in a coordinated way, not just as individuals.”
尽管我会建议村民们保持市场交易的进行， ——这会产生足够的资源，让你支付恢复费用并投资于健康投入等 —— 我会说，“你可能希望在你的社区内聚集在一起，考虑以协调的方式遵守一些卫生条件，一些社会距离，而不仅仅是作为个人。”
Are there any fictional depictions of pandemics that you find persuasive?
您认为有哪些关于流行病的虚构描述有说服力吗？
Manzoni, Camus, Pamuk?
曼佐尼、加缪、帕慕克？
Anything?
任何事物？
Even Boccaccio.
甚至薄伽丘。
Who do you think, “Oh, this captures it”?
你认为谁会“哦，这抓住了它”？
Actually, I do think Boccaccio captures it.
事实上，我确实认为薄伽丘抓住了这一点。
When I was writing the book, I kept on finding that there were passages in Boccaccio which exactly described what the historical sources were showing.
当我写这本书时，我不断发现薄伽丘的某些段落准确地描述了历史资料所显示的内容。
He would describe how people in the immediate aftermath of the Black Death — the family, to some extent, broke down.
他会描述黑死病爆发后人们的家庭在某种程度上是如何崩溃的。
People were abandoning their family members.
人们抛弃了他们的家人。
They weren’t helping their neighbors.
他们没有帮助邻居。
It was casting a dark light on the ability of family and community to cope by itself during such a huge crisis.
它给家庭和社区在如此巨大的危机中应对自身的能力蒙上了一层阴影。
Probably Boccaccio would be my favorite, maybe because he himself had experienced it.
也许薄伽丘是我的最爱，也许是因为他自己也经历过。
The later fictional accounts — they’re great literature, but I somehow felt that they convinced me less than a guy who actually went through it.
后来的虚构叙述——它们是伟大的文学作品，但不知怎的，我觉得它们比一个真正经历过它的人更让我信服。
On variolation
关于天花
Who or what invented variolation?
谁或什么发明了人痘接种？
We don’t know.
我们不知道。
It was a spontaneous invention as far as we know in all sorts of societies across the world, lost in the mists of time.
据我们所知，这是世界各地各种社会的自发发明，迷失在时间的迷雾中。
The first documents we have suggest that it was widely practiced in China in the 1560s.
我们掌握的第一份文件表明，它在 1560 年代在中国得到了广泛的实践。
They got integrated into Chinese religion, but also, they had commercial variolators.
他们融入了中国宗教，但他们也有商业化的变种人。
There was a dynasty of commercial variolators operating in China in the 16th century.
16 世纪，中国出现了一个商业变种人王朝。
We, in Europe, learned about it — not we, but my ancestors, I guess, mostly came from Europe as far as I know — learned about it not until the 18th century.
我们，在欧洲，了解了它——“据我所知，不是我们，而是我的祖先，他们大多来自欧洲”——直到 18 世纪才了解它。
It had been being practiced in China, in northern Africa, in the Middle East, possibly in India since the 16th or 17th century.
自 16 世纪或 17 世纪以来，这种做法一直在中国、北非、中东、可能还有印度实行。
It was introduced into England in the first couple of decades of the 18th century simultaneously by an English East India company surgeon writing a letter back to the Royal Society in London and by Lady Mary Wortley Montagu, who was the ambassador’s wife in Istanbul — Constantinople as it then was — who learned that there was this amazing practice, which the women of Constantinople practiced in order to prevent both themselves and their children from getting smallpox.
它是在 18 世纪的前几十年传入英国的，当时一位英国东印度公司的外科医生给伦敦皇家学会写了一封回信，而玛丽·沃特利·蒙塔古女士（她是驻伊斯坦布尔大使的妻子）了解到这种神奇的做法，君士坦丁堡的妇女为了防止自己和孩子感染天花而实行这种做法。
She actually got an English doctor in Istanbul to do it to her two-year-old son.
她实际上在伊斯坦布尔请了一位英国医生为她两岁的儿子做这件事。
Then when she went back to England, she got it done.
然后当她回到英国时，她就完成了。
It was probably the first variolation in England.
这可能是英格兰第一例人痘接种。
She got it done by the same doctor.
她是由同一个医生做的。
She dragged him out of retirement and said, “Do my daughter.” He did it.
她把他从退休状态中拉了出来，说道：“做吧，我的女儿。”他做到了。
Because she was a member of the aristocracy, she made it the cool thing to do.
因为她是贵族成员，所以她把这当作一件很酷的事情。
She was an early 18th-century influencer, and it became the fashionable thing for aristocratic ladies and then upwardly mobile people to do.
她是 18 世纪早期的影响者，这成为贵族女士和后来的上流人士的时尚做法。
It happened that it was a really good way of spreading it because we even know nowadays that mothers, women are often the decision-makers as far as vaccination and health decisions in the family are concerned.
碰巧这是一种很好的传播方式，因为我们现在甚至知道，就疫苗接种和家庭健康决定而言，母亲、女性往往是决策者。
The fact that she was such a great influencer, and she modeled this behavior as being very cool and what rich upper-class ladies did, meant that it spread very quickly in England, but sadly, very much not on the continent of Europe.
事实上，她是一个非常有影响力的人，她把这种行为塑造成非常酷的样子，就像富有的上层阶级女士所做的那样，这意味着它在英国迅速传播，但遗憾的是，它在欧洲大陆上传播得非常快。
How well did it work back then?
当时效果如何？
Was it a no-brainer that you should do it?
您应该这样做吗？
Or it was highly risky?
还是风险很大？
What do we know?
我们知道什么？
It was a little bit risky.
这有点冒险。
If you carried out a cost-benefit analysis, you would do it.
如果您进行成本效益分析，您就会这样做。
Variolation, for those of our listeners who don’t know about it, was like vaccination before vaccination.
对于那些不了解疫苗接种的听众来说，接种疫苗就像接种疫苗之前接种疫苗一样。
It wasn’t that you got injected with cowpox, which is not a disease that kills you.
并不是说你注射了牛痘，牛痘并不是一种会杀死你的疾病。
You got injected with a weakened version of smallpox itself.
你被注射了天花本身的弱化版本。
Because it was weakened, it normally didn’t kill you.
因为它被削弱了，所以通常不会杀死你。
It gave you a mild attack of the disease, but 1.6 percent of people who got variolated died of it.
它会导致轻微的疾病发作，但 1.6% 的感染者会因此死亡。
On the other hand, the risk of actually catching smallpox and dying of it was something between 10 percent and 20 percent.
另一方面，实际感染天花并死于天花的风险约为 10% 至 20%。
You get these doctors in both China and England saying, “You should just think about it as a merchant would do.
中国和英国的医生都会说：“你应该像商人一样思考这个问题。
Cost and benefits.
成本和效益。
The risk is really high that you will get natural smallpox, and the risk that you will die of variolation is only 1.6 percent, and therefore you should do it.” They’re using the calculus of capitalism to decide whether to get variolated or whether to get it done to their children, and lots of people did.
你感染自然天花的风险确实很高，而你死于天花的风险只有 1.6%，所以你应该这样做。”他们利用资本主义的计算来决定是否接种疫苗或是否为他们的孩子接种疫苗，很多人都这样做了。
Should we have done that in 2020, as Robin Hanson suggested?
我们是否应该像 Robin Hanson 所建议的那样在 2020 年这样做？
If it passes the cost-benefit test?
如果它通过了成本效益测试？
I don’t know if variolation would work for COVID is the problem.
我不知道痘痘接种是否对新冠病毒有效，这就是问题所在。
It’s a virus, not a bacterium.
它是一种病毒，不是细菌。
I’m not sure.
我不知道。
It’s not a herd immunity argument; it’s an actual medical immunization argument.
这不是群体免疫的争论；而是。这是一个实际的医学免疫争论。
Clearly, normal people understood it very well in the 18th century.
显然，18世纪的普通人对此非常了解。
If you were a teenager in an English village in the 18th century and you were deciding, “I’m going to move to London and get a job,” you and your friendship group from the village would all go into the nearest town and pay a commercial variolator.
如果你是 18 世纪英国村庄的青少年，你决定“我要搬到伦敦找一份工作”，你和你村里的朋友们都会去最近的城镇并支付商业保险。
You’d all get smallpox together.
你们都会一起感染天花。
You’d go back to your village.
你会回到你的村庄。
You’d suffer through this mild case of smallpox, and then you would be immunized for life, assuming that you hadn’t died.
你会患上这种轻微的天花，然后假设你没有死，你就会获得终生免疫。
You would go off to London and seek your fortune.
你会去伦敦寻找你的财富。
It was very much a normal teenage thing to do.
这是青少年时期很正常的事情。
There was this incredible franchising set up in England.
英国建立了令人难以置信的特许经营权。
It was like a McDonald’s, but to get variolated.
这就像麦当劳，但要接种疫苗。
There were these entrepreneurs who advertised themselves as having lower-risk ways of getting immunized and cheaper ways of getting immunized.
有些企业家宣传自己拥有风险较低的免疫方法和更便宜的免疫方法。
There was this famous family of the Suttons that started a franchise in 18th-century England in the 1750s.
1750 年代，18 世纪的英格兰有一个著名的萨顿家族 (Suttons) 创办了特许经营店。
Then they spread into the continent of Europe and actually into North America.
然后他们传播到欧洲大陆，实际上是传播到北美。
You would have done it back then?
那时你会这么做吗？
Oh, definitely.
哦，当然。
With enthusiasm.
充满热情。
I’m a counter.
我是柜台。
I look at 1.6 percent and compare it to 10 percent or 20 percent.
我观察 1.6%，并将其与 10% 或 20% 进行比较。
I know which way I’d go.
我知道我会走哪条路。
On local vs centralized responses to pandemics
关于流行病的地方与集中应对
The earlier history of pandemics — if you had to say, in general, did local autonomy or centralized control do better?
流行病的早期历史 ——如果你不得不说，一般来说，地方自治或集中控制哪个更好？
What is your view?
你的看法是什么？
Local autonomy, definitely.
绝对是地方自治。
One of the big theories that economists have developed in recent years about how to get nearly every good outcome in economics is to have lots of state capacity.
近年来，经济学家发展出的关于如何获得几乎所有经济学良好结果的重要理论之一就是拥有大量的国家能力。
One component of the theory of state capacity is that you want state centralization.
国家能力理论的一个组成部分是希望国家集权。
Well, I’m not really totally convinced about that for any outcome, but certainly the historical evidence suggests that local government was a lot more effective than central government at dealing with contagion control.
嗯，我并不完全相信这一点的任何结果，但历史证据确实表明，地方政府在应对传染病控制方面比中央政府要有效得多。
What were they better at?
他们更擅长什么？
How did that play out?
结果如何？
They were better in lots of ways.
他们在很多方面都更好。
They were also not so good in a couple of ways.
他们在几个方面也不太好。
They were better in knowing what the local preference was of the cost-benefit analysis between economic effects and epidemiological effects.
他们更了解当地对经济效应和流行病学效应之间的成本效益分析的偏好。
They were good at liaising with informal community-level neighborly effects, so monitoring of neighbors by one another, altruism among neighbors, and so on.
他们善于与非正式的社区层面的邻里效应进行联络，从而相互监督邻居、邻居之间的利他主义等等。
They were really highly informed about who was keeping the well clean, who was getting variolated or vaccinated — the sharp-eyed neighbor, the curtain-twitching effect.
他们确实非常了解谁在保持水井清洁，谁在接种人痘或接种疫苗——目光敏锐的邻居，窗帘拉动效应。
They were highly informed.
他们消息灵通。
It probably wasn’t that fun if you were not keeping your latrine clean and you weren’t getting vaccinated, but your neighbors were watching you.
如果你不保持厕所清洁并且不接种疫苗，那可能就没那么有趣了，但你的邻居正在看着你。
They were pretty good at — at least in some parts of Europe — running a local-level welfare system where they could observe which villagers were going through difficulties and provide them with some welfare support that would enable them to observe lockdown or get variolated, or would provide them with some food if they needed to quarantine.
他们非常擅长——至少在欧洲的一些地方——运行一个地方福利系统，他们可以观察哪些村民正在经历困难，并为他们提供一些福利支持，使他们能够遵守封锁或接种疫苗，或者在他们需要隔离时为他们提供一些食物。
That often works well on the local level because the deserving poor are very easily identified locally.
这在地方一级通常效果很好，因为当地很容易识别出应得的穷人。
So, I’m talking up local government.
所以，我正在谈论当地政府。
The problem is that pandemics, epidemics often spill out beyond the village walls.
问题是流行病、流行病经常蔓延到村墙之外。
When that was the case, you actually sometimes needed higher levels of government to bang a few local heads together because the problem with villages and small towns is that they only care about what’s going on inside the community.
在这种情况下，实际上有时需要更高级别的政府来敲打一些当地的负责人，因为村庄和小镇的问题在于他们只关心社区内部发生的事情。
Sometimes we know there are cross-border externalities.
有时我们知道存在跨境外部性。
None of us are safe until we’re all safe.
在我们都安全之前，没有人是安全的。
Looking at the spillover effects beyond the local community, I think having higher levels of government to do a bit of local head banging was a useful thing.
看看当地社区以外的溢出效应，我认为让更高级别的政府对当地进行一些撞击是一件有用的事情。
But on the whole, it was local governments that did most of the heavy lifting, and the central government, at best, was just permitting the local government to do its thing rather than actually taking initiatives.
但总体而言，大部分繁重的工作都是由地方政府承担的，而中央政府充其量只是允许地方政府做自己的事情，而不是真正采取主动。
On responses to COVID-19
关于应对新冠肺炎 (COVID-19) 的措施
Now, you were living in England during the COVID pandemic, right?
现在，您在新冠病毒大流行期间住在英国，对吗？
I was.
我是。
Given all the history you know, what struck you as standing out or surprising or unusual?
鉴于您所了解的所有历史，什么让您印象深刻、令人惊讶或不寻常？
How do you see the British response differently from how less-informed people might?
您认为英国人的反应与消息灵通人士的反应有何不同？
I was not that happy with the British response while I was living here.
当我住在这里时，我对英国人的反应不太满意。
There were aspects of it that I continued to be unhappy with until fairly recently.
直到最近我仍然对它的某些方面感到不满意。
There were things I was very proud of in the sense that the Oxford COVID vaccine got developed really quickly and rolled out really quickly, and I had it, and that was wonderful.
有些事情让我感到非常自豪，因为牛津新冠疫苗的研发速度非常快，推出也非常快，我已经拥有了它，这真是太棒了。
Of course, I had just moved to Oxford at the beginning of COVID.
当然，我在新冠疫情爆发时刚刚搬到牛津。
I taught for 30 years in Cambridge before I moved to All Souls College.
在搬到万灵学院之前，我在剑桥教了 30 年书。
I was starting a new job at the exact time that COVID was starting.
我在新冠疫情开始的时候开始了一份新工作。
I was very pleased that science was kicking in.
我很高兴科学开始发挥作用。
I think that was something that Britain did fairly well.
我认为英国在这方面做得相当好。
Some other countries had more delay in approving the early vaccines.
其他一些国家在批准早期疫苗方面有更多的延迟。
On the other hand, one thing I didn’t like was that there were some government initiatives that actually paid people to go out and go to restaurants while the pandemic was still going on.
另一方面，我不喜欢的一件事是，政府采取了一些举措，实际上是在疫情仍在继续的情况下，向人们支付外出和去餐馆的费用。
Our then chancellor of the exchequer had a program called Help Out to Eat Out, and he was actually subsidizing people to go out to restaurants while the pandemic was still going on to help business.
我们当时的财政大臣有一个名为“Help Out to Eat Out”的计划，他实际上是在补贴人们在疫情仍在继续时外出就餐，以帮助生意。
A very nice piece of econometric analysis was carried out by an economist at Warwick, which showed that immediately after the Eat Out to Help Out initiative was put into place, there were massive increases in COVID infections and deaths in the affected places.
华威大学的一位经济学家进行了一项非常好的计量经济学分析，该分析表明，在“外出就餐助人”计划实施后，受影响地区的新冠病毒感染和死亡人数立即大幅增加。
I think that was shocking.
我认为这令人震惊。
The other thing that I didn’t like about living here was that it was actually not possible to get a COVID vaccination on the market until last year.
我不喜欢住在这里的另一件事是，实际上直到去年才在市场上获得新冠疫苗。
You had to wait to come up in the queue of the government deciding whether your age group was allowed to be vaccinated.
您必须等待，才能进入政府决定是否允许您的年龄段接种疫苗的队列。
Whereas, not just in Canada and the United States, but in Germany, in France, all over Europe .
然而，不仅在加拿大和美国，而且在德国、法国和整个欧洲。
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。
.
。
I had a former postdoc who was saying, “Yes, I’m going on holiday next week.
我有一位前博士后说：“是的，我下周要去度假。
I’ve made an appointment with my GP” — this was in Essen in Germany — “to get my COVID vaccination.” He was just free to do it, whereas the rest of us were waiting for our government permission to get our vaccination.
我已经和我的全科医生预约了” — 这是在德国埃森 — “接种新冠疫苗。”他可以自由地这样做，而我们其他人则在等待政府许可才能接种疫苗。
I thought it was a reversal of Britain’s precocious status as the world’s center of variolation in the 18th century.
我认为这是对英国早熟的 18 世纪世界痘痘中心地位的逆转。
Why was it being like this?
为什么会变成这样？
It had a really highly market-provided variolation system in the 18th century.
它在 18 世纪有一个真正高度市场化的疫苗接种系统。
Why was it not mobilizing market provision of vaccination in the 21st?
为什么21号没有动员市场提供疫苗？
You probably have things you remember from living in the US during the COVID pandemic that perhaps weren’t quite the way you might have liked them to be.
您可能记得新冠疫情期间在美国生活时发生的一些事情，这些事情可能并不像您希望的那样。
I drove to North Carolina to get my vaccine a month early, and that worked out great.
我提前一个月开车前往北卡罗来纳州接种疫苗，效果很好。
It was totally legal, to be clear.
需要明确的是，这是完全合法的。
Federalism has some advantages, referring back to local autonomy.
联邦制有一些优势，比如地方自治。
You know what you were like?
你知道你以前是什么样子吗？
You were like diplomats from the Netherlands and Spain and France in the 18th century, where at home it was illegal to get variolated.
你们就像 18 世纪来自荷兰、西班牙和法国的外交官，在这些国家，接种痘痘是违法的。
They would make sure that they got a posting to London, and they would take all their kids with them so they could all get variolated in London.
他们会确保自己被派往伦敦，并且会带着所有的孩子一起去，这样他们就可以在伦敦感染痘痘了。
They were jurisdiction shopping as well.
他们也在管辖范围内购物。
Given your long knowledge of the history — opposition to variolation, opposition to vaccination — when you see so much opposition today, especially in my country, where does that come from?
鉴于您对历史的长期了解——“反对接种人痘、反对接种疫苗”——当您今天看到如此多的反对声音，尤其是在我国，这些反对声音从何而来？
What insight do you have as to the persistence of these crazy views?
对于这些疯狂观点的持续存在，您有何见解？
Historically, it was related .
从历史上看，这是相关的。
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。
.
。
Nowadays, its sources are partly historical, and you can see their roots in history because one of the sources of opposition to both variolation and vaccination was religion.
如今，它的来源部分是历史性的，你可以看到它们的历史根源，因为反对接种疫苗和疫苗接种的根源之一是宗教。
Not mainstream religion, but extreme, dissenting religion, if you like, the religious left and extreme authoritarian religion, if you like.
不是主流宗教，而是极端的持不同政见的宗教，如果你愿意的话，宗教左派和极端独裁宗教，如果你愿意的话。
The super orthodox Catholics, for instance, in France were very anti-variolation, as were the super Protestant dissenter types in, for instance, Germany and various parts of Scandinavia.
例如，法国的超级正统天主教徒非常反对接种疫苗，德国和斯堪的纳维亚半岛各地的超级新教持不同政见者也是如此。
So, it was the religious extremes, which were —
所以，这就是宗教极端，即——
How do you model that?
你如何建模？
Why are those the people who oppose it?
为什么那些人反对呢？
Is it rebelliousness?
是叛逆吗？
Or they don’t trust authority?
还是他们不信任权威？
I don’t think it can be not trusting authority because they certainly believe in their own authority.
我认为这不能是不信任权威，因为他们当然相信自己的权威。
The religious right, the Jansenist Catholics in France, certainly were not anti-authoritarian.
宗教右翼，即法国的詹森天主教徒，当然不是反独裁的。
I was talking to a colleague who was writing a book about the economics of religion while I was writing my book, and it was during COVID.
当我写书的时候，我正在和一位正在写一本关于宗教经济学的书的同事交谈，那是在新冠疫情期间。
We were talking about how religion is a platform, if you like.
如果你愿意的话，我们正在谈论宗教如何成为一个平台。
It’s like Amazon in the sense that you get a bunch of different services from it.
从某种意义上说，它就像亚马逊，你可以从中获得许多不同的服务。
One reason why people sign up to anti-variolation or anti-vax sentiment is that they want other things which their particular religious platform is offering.
人们加入反疫苗接种或反疫苗情绪的原因之一是他们想要他们特定的宗教平台提供的其他东西。
It might be offering spiritual consolation, it might be offering charitable relief, it might be offering social networking.
它可能提供精神安慰，可能提供慈善救济，可能提供社交网络。
In order to get the linked goods within that religious platform, you have to sign up to the epistemological craziness of the anti-scientific views.
为了在该宗教平台内获得链接商品，您必须接受反科学观点的认识论疯狂。
That was one reason historically, and I think that’s still in operation.
这是历史上的原因之一，我认为这一原因仍然有效。
Historically, there was another reason, which was the medical guilds — the equivalent of the American Medical Association, only much, much worse, back in early modern Europedid not like the idea of this new thing, this new technology that they had not approved and that was also going to challenge their business model and take away their fees from treating smallpox patients.
从历史上看，还有另一个原因，那就是医学协会——相当于美国医学会，只是更糟糕的是，早在现代欧洲，他们不喜欢这种新事物的想法，这种他们尚未批准的新技术，这也会挑战他们的商业模式，并剥夺他们治疗天花患者的费用。
In France and in Spain, it was the medical guilds, together with the Catholic Church, that lobbied the state to make variolation illegal.
在法国和西班牙，正是医疗行会与天主教会一起游说国家将痘痘定为非法。
It was this unholy alliance between the medical associations and religion.
这就是医学协会和宗教之间的邪恶联盟。
Fortunately, modern medical associations are not as bad as medical guilds.
幸运的是，现代医学协会并不像医学行会那么糟糕。
There may be some ways in which they’re similar, but in that respect, they’re not.
它们可能在某些方面相似，但在这方面却并非如此。
There are renegade medics who go on the internet and say, “I’m a trained medic, and I can tell you vaccination is bad.” But in general, medical associations aren’t like that anymore.
有些叛逆的医务人员在互联网上说：“我是一名训练有素的医务人员，我可以告诉你疫苗接种是不好的。”但总的来说，医学协会不再是这样了。
On dastardly guilds
关于卑鄙的行会
You mentioned the guilds.
你提到了公会。
One of the things you’re best known for is your two books on the guilds [The European Guilds, Institutions and European Trade] and your articles.
您最出名的事情之一是您关于行会的两本书 [欧洲行会、机构和欧洲贸易] 和您的文章。
What’s the best argument you can make on behalf of Medieval and Renaissance guilds?
您可以代表中世纪和文艺复兴时期行会提出的最佳论据是什么？
Is there anything you can say for them?
您有什么可以对他们说的吗？
I might be becoming soft-hearted in my old age, but I think there are examples of guild systems which operated effective professional training.
我可能会在晚年变得心慈手软，但我认为行会系统有有效进行专业培训的例子。
I would say the Dutch and English guilds had a fairly good vocational training system.
我想说荷兰和英国的行会都有相当好的职业培训体系。
It was good because it did provide a training framework for young people to learn crafts and services.
这很好，因为它确实为年轻人提供了学习手工艺和服务的培训框架。
In England and the Netherlands, it was even possible for females, for girls, to sometimes get vocational training and not be excluded from the guild apprenticeship system.
在英格兰和荷兰，女性、女孩有时甚至有可能接受职业培训，而不被排除在行会学徒制度之外。
The other amazing thing about the English guild system was that, once you had been apprenticed to any occupation in London, you could practice any other.
英国行会制度的另一个令人惊奇的事情是，一旦你在伦敦成为任何职业的学徒，你就可以从事任何其他职业。
You just had to get membership of one guild, and then you could do any guilded occupation in London.
你只需成为一个行会的会员，然后你就可以在伦敦从事任何行会职业。
This was unique.
这是独一无二的。
This was not the way guilds normally were.
这不是公会通常的样子。
I’ve finished saying my good things about the guilds.
关于公会的好话我已经说完了。
The bad things were that no other apprenticeship system in Europe was flexible like that.
不好的是欧洲没有其他学徒制度能像这样灵活。
In fact, in most European societies, guilds fundamentally in principle, didn’t let women, girls get any formal vocational training.
事实上，在大多数欧洲社会，行会从根本上原则上不让妇女、女孩接受任何正规的职业培训。
They excluded Jews.
他们排斥犹太人。
They excluded poor boys who could not pay the several years of wages necessary to pay the training fees.
他们将那些无法支付支付培训费用所需的几年工资的贫困男孩排除在外。
They excluded migrants.
他们将移民排除在外。
They excluded people with the wrong color of skin.
他们排除了肤色错误的人。
In 18th-century Spain, a cobbler’s guild in one Spanish city excluded all boys from apprenticeship whose skin was darker than the color of quince jelly.
在 18 世纪的西班牙，西班牙一座城市的鞋匠行会禁止所有肤色比木瓜果冻颜色更深的男孩接受学徒培训。
There was a literal color bar to getting into a guild, even getting any training.
进入公会，甚至接受任何培训，都有一个字面上的颜色条。
It was completely not merit-based.
这完全不是基于功绩的。
I think, in general, the problem with guilds is that they seek the benefits of their existing members, and restricting entry always enables you to raise prices.
我认为，总的来说，行会的问题在于他们为现有成员谋取利益，而限制进入总是能让你提高价格。
It was quite difficult to prevent a guild from behaving like a little mini cartel.
想要阻止一个公会像一个小卡特尔一样行事是相当困难的。
I would say guilds did operate training systems for those they let in, but they didn’t let everyone in.
我想说的是，行会确实为他们允许进入的人运行了培训系统，但他们并没有让所有人进入。
They did some quality control over goods and services, but they often imposed quality restrictions that meant that it was not possible to sell cheap and nasty products.
他们对商品和服务进行了一些质量控制，但他们经常施加质量限制，这意味着不可能销售廉价和令人讨厌的产品。
They focused on the nastiness, and they didn’t focus on the fact that sometimes less well-off people would like something nasty as long as it’s a bit cheaper.
他们关注的是肮脏的东西，而没有关注这样一个事实：有时不太富裕的人会喜欢一些肮脏的东西，只要它便宜一点。
Do you think the guilds improved the history of Western art or damaged it?
您认为行会是改善了西方艺术史还是破坏了它？
If you look at Florence, there are some notable commissions.
如果你看看佛罗伦萨，就会发现一些值得注意的委托。
Arguably, Dutch municipal buildings may have benefited from guild investment.
可以说，荷兰市政建筑可能受益于行会投资。
Were there any offshoot public goods, or there was more damage done?
是否有任何分支公共产品，或者造成了更多损害？
I think definitively the damage greatly outweighed the benefits, but it’s a bit like the German Hanseatic League.
我认为肯定是弊大于利，但这有点像德国汉萨同盟。
If you go to those amazing Hanseatic cities in northern Germany and Scandinavia — beautiful architecture, amazing — just glorious use of the rents.
如果你去德国北部和斯堪的纳维亚半岛那些令人惊叹的汉萨城市——“美丽的建筑，令人惊叹的”——“租金的光荣利用”。
You wouldn’t want there to have been serfdom, but the beautiful palaces built by incredibly rich Eastern European aristocrats are an enduring legacy.
你不会希望那里存在农奴制，但由极其富有的东欧贵族建造的美丽宫殿是一个持久的遗产。
You could say it’s something that the state does.
你可以说这是国家做的事情。
Not everything the state does is good, but early modern princes built the Palace of Versailles, and we’re happy that those monuments still exist, but I’m not sure that we would want to get back to that social framework.
并非国家所做的一切都是好的，但现代早期的王子建造了凡尔赛宫，我们很高兴这些纪念碑仍然存在，但我不确定我们是否想回到那个社会框架。
On the European marriage pattern and economic growth
论欧洲婚姻模式与经济增长
There’s something called the European marriage pattern.
有一种叫做欧洲婚姻模式的东西。
You’ve written on this extensively.
你已经写了很多关于这个的文章。
To what extent did it contribute to later European economic growth?
对后来的欧洲经济增长有多大贡献？
This is a really big debate.
这是一场非常大的辩论。
My view of it is that the European marriage pattern is observable in a wide range of European countries in central and western and northwestern Europe.
我的观点是，欧洲婚姻模式在中欧、西欧和西北欧的许多欧洲国家都可以观察到。
Just for our listeners, the European marriage pattern has three key characteristics: relatively late marriage for women, so in their mid to late 20s; a significant proportion of especially women but, of course, also men, never marrying in their entire lives, so lifelong celibacy 10 percent to 15 percent; and primarily nuclear family households.
就我们听众而言，欧洲的婚姻模式具有三个关键特征：女性结婚相对较晚，所以在20多岁左右；很大一部分人一生从未结婚，尤其是女性，当然也包括男性，因此终身独身的比例为 10% 至 15%；主要是核心家庭。
Together, it has been argued that these things were good for subsequent economic growth.
总的来说，有人认为这些事情有利于随后的经济增长。
That’s mainly based on the fact that England and the Netherlands had the European marriage pattern, and they had amazing economic growth.
这主要是因为英国和荷兰有着欧洲的联姻模式，并且有着惊人的经济增长。
The Dutch Golden Age was between 1560 and 1670, and then England starts taking off after about 1650 and, of course, becomes the first country to industrialize.
荷兰的黄金时代是在 1560 年至 1670 年之间，然后英国在 1650 年左右开始腾飞，当然，成为第一个工业化的国家。
People who initially studied the European marriage pattern said, “Oh, this is something that existed in England and the Netherlands.
最初研究欧洲婚姻模式的人说：“哦，这是英国和荷兰存在的东西。
It must have caused economic growth.”
它一定会带来经济增长。”
The problem is that the European marriage pattern also existed in extremely poor, stagnant economies in eastern and central Europe, Nordic Europe, Scandinavian countries, places that had serfdom, like Bohemia, the present-day Czech Republic, places in Scandinavia that didn’t industrialize until the late 19th century.
问题是，欧洲的婚姻模式也存在于东欧和中欧、北欧、斯堪的纳维亚国家、波希米亚、现在的捷克共和国等农奴制国家、斯堪的纳维亚半岛直到19世纪末才实现工业化的地区，这些地区的经济极其贫困、停滞不前。
Extreme versions of the European marriage pattern were strongly associated with economic stagnation.
欧洲婚姻模式的极端版本与经济停滞密切相关。
But all those places do industrialize, even Eastern Europe.
但所有这些地方都实现了工业化，甚至包括东欧。
After Communism, many decades of terrible policy, they catch up pretty well.
在经历了共产主义几十年的可怕政策之后，他们迎头赶上。
Isn’t there something enduring about that culture?
这种文化难道没有什么经久不衰的东西吗？
Say, if we look at Sahel in Africa, where there’s a lot of polygamy.
比如说，如果我们看看非洲的萨赫勒地区，那里存在很多一夫多妻制。
A woman might be married at age 14, have a lot of kids that won’t be well-educated, doesn’t pass down a lot of human capital to her kids.
一个女人可能在 14 岁就结婚了，她的很多孩子都没有受到良好的教育，也无法将大量的人力资本传给她的孩子。
Doesn’t that continuing regularity show us there really is something to the European marriage pattern?
这种持续的规律性难道没有向我们表明欧洲的婚姻模式确实有其特殊之处吗？
I think the question is, those patterns of low human capital investment — do they come from the family system as an autonomous thing?
我认为问题是，那些低人力资本投资的模式 ——它们是否来自于作为一个自治事物的家庭系统？
Or do people have very early marriage and universal marriage and huge families partly to substitute for the absence of other institutions to get things done?
或者说，人们的早婚、普遍婚姻和庞大的家庭在一定程度上是为了取代其他机构的缺失？
Everyone needs to marry if there’s no way of saving for your old age, or there’s no pension system, or there’s no welfare system.
如果没有办法为晚年储蓄，或者没有养老金制度，或者没有福利制度，每个人都需要结婚。
You may need to have a huge kinship group in order to protect you if the state can’t protect property rights and personal security.
如果国家不能保护财产权和人身安全，你可能需要一个庞大的亲属群体来保护你。
Then it’s a trap you’re caught in.
那么你就陷入了陷阱。
It might be initially effect, but then it becomes cause of future stagnation.
它最初可能是效果，但随后就会成为未来停滞的原因。
You can sit up and say, “Gee, I wish we had had all European marriage pattern for the last 400 years.”
你可以坐起来说：“哎呀，我希望过去 400 年来我们都拥有欧洲式的婚姻模式。”
Well, I think, if I had a wish list, I’d be saying, “Gee, I wish we’d had markets and states.” I don’t care what kind of family system you have.
好吧，我想，如果我有一个愿望清单，我会说，“哎呀，我希望我们有市场和国家。”我不在乎你有什么样的家庭制度。
I think the family — let’s say it’s not necessarily just a response to other institutions, but it’s the whole institutional framework.
我认为家庭——假设它不一定只是对其他机构的回应，而是整个机构框架。
Those involve vigorous markets and effective and non-abusive, if you like, states and many other social institutions.
这些涉及充满活力的市场以及有效且非滥用的（如果你愿意的话）国家和许多其他社会机构。
Once you have these effective other institutions, often you do end up having a later marriage and a nuclear family, because the family doesn’t have to do all the heavy lifting in society.
一旦你拥有了这些有效的其他机构，你通常最终会拥有晚婚和核心家庭，因为家庭不必承担社会中的所有繁重工作。
Until we know what it is that keeps these bad equilibria in place, I don’t think we should conclude that it’s just the family, somehow the family by itself.
在我们知道是什么导致了这些不良平衡的存在之前，我认为我们不应该得出这样的结论：这只是家庭，或者是家庭本身。
There’s some culture that causes people to stay in that situation.
有一些文化会导致人们停留在这种情况下。
It’s a bit of a sad policy if, in order to change the outcomes in Sub-Saharan Africa, we have to completely change people’s culture.
如果为了改变撒哈拉以南非洲的结果，我们必须彻底改变人们的文化，这真是一个可悲的政策。
Let’s see what we can do with better institutions, and if there’s a cultural component left over in the end, then we can start thinking about it.
让我们看看我们可以用更好的机构做些什么，如果最终留下了文化成分，那么我们就可以开始考虑它。
On England’s historical growth and social mobility
关于英格兰的历史增长和社会流动性
Both Greg Clark and Emi Nakamura with co-authors, have good papers arguing sustained economic growth dates from England in the 1620s.
格雷格·克拉克 (Greg Clark) 和中村惠美 (Emi Nakamura) 及其合著者发表了很好的论文，论证持续的经济增长可以追溯到 1620 年代的英国。
(A) do you agree?
（一）你同意吗？
(B) to the extent you agree, what happens?
(B) 如果您同意，会发生什么？
What is special behind that era causing that?
那个时代背后有什么特殊的原因造成了这一点？
I think the question of exactly when it starts in the 17th century is debated.
我认为它到底从 17 世纪开始的时间这个问题是有争议的。
The per capita GDP figures might be the mid-17th century.
人均GDP数据可能是17世纪中叶的。
Some argue that it might be after 1690.
有人认为这可能是在 1690 年之后。
Some, as you say, argue that it’s a bit earlier in the 17th century.
正如你所说，有些人认为这是 17 世纪更早的时间。
I would be happy to go with the 17th century for now.
我现在很乐意选择 17 世纪。
Why?
为什么？
You’re probably going to get tired of me saying this.
你可能会厌倦我这样说。
I think there was a much livelier institution of the market emerging after about 1600.
我认为在 1600 点左右之后，市场出现了一个更加活跃的机制。
State capacity was increasing but not becoming authoritarian.
国家能力正在增强，但并未变得独裁。
Guilds were weakening.
行会正在削弱。
The kind of state capacity you had in England was local-level state capacity, local government, parish-level rather than centralized.
英国的国家能力是地方一级的国家能力、地方政府、教区一级的国家能力，而不是中央集权的。
The one thing that England had was a great legal system, but it had hardly any bureaucrats.
英国拥有的一件事是一个伟大的法律体系，但它几乎没有任何官僚。
There was a tiny customs service and army and navy, but they didn’t have paid local-level bureaucrats the way they did in France or in Germany.
那里有一个很小的海关部门、陆军和海军，但他们不像法国或德国那样向地方官僚支付报酬。
So, there were all sorts of things which came together in England in the 17th century, which had actually already begun.
所以，17世纪的英国发生了各种各样的事情，这实际上已经开始了。
They’d come together in the Low Countries in the Netherlands in the 16th century.
他们于 16 世纪聚集在荷兰的低地国家。
It was a cluster of different institutional innovations, if you like, that first the Netherlands and then England enjoyed in the 16th and 17th centuries, which let the inherent entrepreneurial nature — I think, of all cultures, not just of English culture — loose in the course of the 17th century.
如果你愿意的话，首先是荷兰，然后是英国在 16 世纪和 17 世纪经历了一系列不同的制度创新，这些创新让内在的创业本性——“我认为，所有文化，而不仅仅是英国文化”——在 17 世纪的过程中得到了释放。
When it comes to the Industrial Revolution proper, which comes, of course, to Britain but not so much to what we now call the Netherlands Dutch Republic, is coal the difference there?
当谈到工业革命本身时，当然，工业革命发生在英国，但对我们现在所说的荷兰共和国来说就不那么重要了，那么煤炭有什么区别吗？
Or why did the Dutch Republic not continue on a good track?
或者说，为什么荷兰共和国没有继续走上好的轨道呢？
They stayed okay, but they didn’t make the same progress.
他们保持得很好，但没有取得同样的进步。
No, they got stuck in a rich equilibrium if you like.
不，如果你愿意的话，他们陷入了富裕的均衡。
Per capita GDP in England doesn’t surpass that in the Dutch Republic until after 1800, after there’s been 40 years of Industrial Revolution.
英国的人均GDP直到1800年之后，即工业革命40年之后才超过荷兰共和国。
The Dutch Republic is stagnating at a really high level.
荷兰共和国正处于一个非常高的水平上停滞不前。
You probably wouldn’t have complained had you been a Dutch burger in 1800.
如果你是 1800 年的荷兰汉堡，你可能不会抱怨。
But you’re right, it was an 18th-century stagnation.
但你是对的，这是 18 世纪的停滞。
In fact, after about 1670, the Dutch Republic stagnates at a high level.
事实上，大约在1670年之后，荷兰共和国就停滞在高水平上。
It’s immensely debated by Dutch historians and by others.
荷兰历史学家和其他人对此展开了激烈的争论。
I think that some argue that Dutch stagnation was caused by outside influences, like wars with France.
我认为有些人认为荷兰的停滞是由外部影响造成的，比如与法国的战争。
I’m not an expert on the Dutch Republic, but I think that you can observe its internal domestic institutions getting ossified, petrifying in the course of the 18th century.
我不是荷兰共和国的专家，但我认为你可以观察到它的内部机构在 18 世纪变得僵化、僵化。
After having greatly liberalized its guilds in the 16th century, they actually kick back in and become more restrictive in the 18th century.
在 16 世纪大幅放开行会之后，他们实际上在 18 世纪卷土重来，并变得更加严格。
The Dutch East India Company, the VOC gets these incredible monopolies.
荷兰东印度公司（VOC）拥有这些令人难以置信的垄断权。
It starts dominating the business system and the financial system to an extent that I think probably was not beneficial.
它开始主导商业系统和金融系统，其程度我认为可能没有好处。
It became possible for entrenched groups of craft and commercial producers to exclude innovations.
根深蒂固的手工艺和商业生产者群体有可能排除创新。
It was a reversal between the south and north of the Netherlands because the southern Netherlands had fallen behind the north in the Dutch Golden Age, but it was actually the southern Netherlands — what we now call Belgium — that was in the second wave of industrialization after England.
这是荷兰南部和北部的逆转，因为在荷兰黄金时代，南部荷兰落后于北部，但实际上，荷兰南部——也就是我们现在所说的比利时——正处于继英国之后的第二次工业化浪潮中。
The underlying strength of the Low Countries in general kicked in in the late 18th century when Belgium and northern France started to industrialize.
低地国家的潜在实力总体上是在 18 世纪末比利时和法国北部开始工业化时开始显现的。
I think there were some really great fundamental strengths of the Low Countries, but I don’t know exactly why the Dutch Republic entrenched oligarchy started to block further growth in the 18th century.
我认为低地国家确实有一些巨大的基本优势，但我不知道为什么荷兰共和国根深蒂固的寡头政治在 18 世纪开始阻碍进一步的增长。
What do you think of the Greg Clark hypothesis, that England basically has never had much real social mobility, and it just hasn’t improved over the centuries?
您如何看待格雷格·克拉克（Greg Clark）的假设，即英格兰基本上从未有过太多真正的社会流动性，而且几个世纪以来一直没有改善？
It depends who your parents were, it might be genetic.
这取决于你的父母是谁，这可能是遗传的。
You just cycle through the same families, the same surnames.
你只是在相同的家庭、相同的姓氏中循环。
Agree or disagree?
同意还是不同意？
On the whole, mostly disagree.
总体来说，大多不同意。
I think many societies are a bit like that.
我认为很多社会都有点像这样。
You see certain countries who have presidential dynasties of various sorts.
你会看到某些国家有各种各样的总统王朝。
You see a lot, in fact, especially now that things like education matter so much.
事实上，你看到了很多，尤其是现在像教育这样的事情如此重要。
Insofar as education is influenced by your parents, you can end up getting an oligarchy of very educated people.
只要教育受到父母的影响，你最终可能会得到受过良好教育的人的寡头统治。
It’s a big problem in any society.
这在任何社会都是一个大问题。
I think we need cross-country comparisons of social mobility because, even if you observe England having quite a lot of immobility over the long period, the question is, what’s the counterfactual?
我认为我们需要对社会流动性进行跨国比较，因为即使你观察到英国在很长一段时间内有相当多的流动性，问题是，反事实是什么？
Shouldn’t you be looking at Germany?
你不应该看看德国吗？
Shouldn’t you be looking at France?
你不应该看看法国吗？
Shouldn’t you be looking at other comparable countries?
难道你不应该看看其他类似的国家吗？
My main research has been on German-speaking central Europe and points east.
我的主要研究是中欧德语区和东部地区。
I think when you compare social mobility in those countries with that in England, England looks like an incredibly mobile society.
我认为，当你将这些国家的社会流动性与英国的社会流动性进行比较时，英国看起来是一个流动性极强的社会。
So, I’m not quite so gloomy about England when I look at what the alternatives were on the continent of Europe, which were even more immobile, and where legal social status was actually legally entrenched.
因此，当我看到欧洲大陆上的其他选择时，我对英国并没有那么悲观，因为欧洲大陆的流动性更加不稳定，合法的社会地位实际上在法律上是根深蒂固的。
There’s that famous scene in The Sorrows of Young Werther, where Werther, who’s an educated man but not a member of the gentry, has to leave the parlor before the dancing begins.
《少年维特之烦恼》中有一个著名的场景，维特是一个受过教育的人，但不是贵族成员，他必须在舞蹈开始前离开客厅。
He has to leave his lady that he would like to marry.
他必须离开他想娶的女人。
He isn’t allowed to stay there because it’s the wrong legal social class.
他不被允许留在那里，因为这是错误的合法社会阶层。
That’s the late 18th century.
那是18世纪末。
I don’t think that that would be happening in England at the time.
我认为当时的英格兰不会发生这种情况。
On a personal anthropological investigation of England
对英格兰的个人人类学调查
You’ve now lived in England for well over 30 years.
您现在已经在英国生活了 30 多年。
What’s been your biggest surprise about the place, if anything has stuck?
如果有任何问题的话，你对这个地方最大的惊讶是什么？
It keeps on surprising me.
它一直让我感到惊讶。
I’ve actually lived here for more than 46 years.
事实上，我已经在这里住了 46 年多了。
I moved here as an undergraduate.
我作为一名本科生搬到这里。
I came here when I was 16, and I feel as if I’m still doing anthropological fieldwork on the behavioral patterns of these strange local tribes.
我 16 岁的时候来到这里，感觉自己好像还在对这些奇怪的当地部落的行为模式进行人类学田野调查。
There are these systematic things — they’re charming, but they’re very strange.
有这些系统性的东西——它们很迷人，但也很奇怪。
For instance, just to give one example, English people are very reserved.
举个例子，英国人非常保守。
I get on with that because Canadians are fairly reserved as well.
我同意这一点，因为加拿大人也相当保守。
It’s okay to talk to people in your neighborhood if they have a dog with them.
如果你的邻居养了狗，可以与他们交谈。
That’s a conversation mediator.
这是一个对话中介。
Or if you are gardening in your front garden, but if you’re in your back garden, you’re not supposed to talk to people.
或者，如果您在前花园园艺，但在后花园，则不应该与人交谈。
It’s taken me a few decades to observe this as an empirical regularity.
我花了几十年的时间才观察到这是一种经验规律。
Nobody ever tells you that this is how you’re supposed to behave, but if you keep your field notebooks going as an anthropologist, you begin to notice the tribal patterns of the English.
从来没有人告诉过你，这就是你应该做的事情，但如果你以人类学家的身份继续记录你的田野笔记本，你就会开始注意到英国人的部落模式。
I must like them, since here I still am after more than four decades.
我一定喜欢他们，因为四十多年后我仍然在这里。
It’s an interesting experience of how you grow up.
这是你成长过程中的一次有趣的经历。
I grew up in Calgary in Western Canada and probably, fundamentally, I’m still a girl from Calgary.
我在加拿大西部的卡尔加里长大，从根本上来说，我可能仍然是一个来自卡尔加里的女孩。
I’m enjoying my anthropological research.
我很享受我的人类学研究。
I think the thing I really like about Britain is, they’re very open to .
我认为我真正喜欢英国的一点是，他们非常开放。
.
。
.
。
It’s quite good to be a foreigner here because if you behave in an eccentric way, they think it’s just because you’re foreign.
在这里做一个外国人很好，因为如果你表现得很古怪，他们会认为那只是因为你是外国人。
They don’t blame you for it.
他们不会因此责怪你。
I think that’s quite a charming characteristic.
我认为这是一个非常迷人的特征。
Do you think English society tolerates its own eccentrics well?
你认为英国社会能很好地容忍自己的怪人吗？
I actually do think it does.
我确实认为确实如此。
I think, especially after 30 years in Cambridge, and now 5 years in Oxford, some of my colleagues are even more eccentric than I am, and that’s fine.
我认为，尤其是在剑桥工作了 30 年，现在又在牛津工作了 5 年，我的一些同事甚至比我更古怪，但这没关系。
Not only do their colleagues like it, but the students really like it.
不仅同事喜欢，学生也非常喜欢。
The students totally get on with having supervisions in Cambridge, tutorials in Oxford, with people who are slightly odd.
学生们在剑桥接受指导，在牛津接受辅导，与稍微奇怪的人相处得很好。
I think that’s an important part of one’s education — both having colleagues who are eccentric and also teaching the next generation that it’s okay to be weird, and I think England’s still like that.
我认为这是一个人教育的重要组成部分——既要拥有古怪的同事，又要教导下一代，古怪是可以的，我认为英格兰仍然如此。
Let’s say an 18-year-old, highly intelligent young woman comes to you.
假设一位 18 岁、非常聪明的年轻女性来找你。
She’s moving to England; she might want to be a professor.
她要搬到英国；她可能想成为一名教授。
What advice do you give to her?
你给她什么建议？
From America, let’s say.
比方说，来自美国。
From America.
来自美国。
My academic advice would be the advice that .
我的学术建议是。
.
。
.
。
My younger sister came to study in England long after I did.
我的妹妹比我早来英国读书。
After her first year at the Institute of Archaeology in London, she said, “Sheilagh, why didn’t you tell me that the way the British university system works is that you aren’t allowed to make up your own essay questions?
在伦敦考古学院度过第一年之后，她说：“Sheilagh，你为什么不告诉我，英国大学系统的运作方式是不允许你自己制作论文题？
You have to focus on the essay question they have set.” I thought, “Yes, that’s the fundamental piece of wisdom I would pass on from an educational point of view,” which is, answer the essay questions set.
你必须专注于他们设置的论文问题。”我想，“是的，这是我从教育角度传递的基本智慧”，也就是说，回答论文问题集。
But in a more general framework, I would say, and this is actually not just England-specific, but changing cultures.
但我想说，在更一般的框架中，这实际上不仅仅是英格兰特有的，而且是不断变化的文化。
When I was 20, I went to live in Germany.
当我20岁的时候，我去德国生活。
I lived there, actually, for quite a long time while I was doing research for my doctorate.
事实上，当我进行博士学位研究时，我在那里住了很长一段时间。
When you initially go to a foreign place, whether it’s Germany — or later, I lived in the Czech Republic for a year — you won’t figure out right away what people in this culture do to feel comfortable and have fun.
当你最初去一个外国的时候，无论是德国——还是后来我在捷克共和国住了一年——你不会立刻明白在这种文化中人们做什么才能感到舒适和乐趣。
But you have to have the faith that they do have things that they do, and you need to learn what those things are that they do in this culture to be comfortable with one another and to have a great time.
但你必须相信他们确实有他们所做的事情，并且你需要了解他们在这种文化中所做的事情是什么，以便彼此相处融洽并度过愉快的时光。
The sooner you learn that, the happier you’ll be fitting into a new culture.
你越早了解这一点，你就会越高兴地融入新的文化。
I think that would be my general life advice to anyone who is moving to a new country.
我认为这将是我对移居新国家的人的一般生活建议。
Find out what people do for fun, and then start doing it.
找出人们为了娱乐而做的事情，然后开始做。
On German culture
关于德国文化
When you were living in Württemberg, what was the biggest puzzle for you?
当您住在符腾堡时，对您来说最大的困惑是什么？
I think the biggest puzzle was the strength of the local community.
我认为最大的难题是当地社区的力量。
I moved there in the fall of 1979.
我于 1979 年秋天搬到那里。
Where were you living exactly?
你具体住在哪里？
I was living in Stuttgart, and I realized that everyone was watching one another all the time.
我住在斯图加特，我意识到每个人一直在互相关注。
There were lots of things that you had to do.
有很多事情你必须做。
I was living in Swabia, which is well-known as being very traditional and very communitarian.
我住在斯瓦比亚，那里以非常传统和非常社群主义而闻名。
You have to clean the sidewalk.
你必须清理人行道。
It is your responsibility.
这是你的责任。
Within the building, if you’re in a block of flats, you have a particular week during which you do the Kehrwoche.
在大楼内，如果您住在公寓楼里，您会在特定的一周内进行 Kehrwoche。
You have to clean the sidewalk.
你必须清理人行道。
The other people in the street will watch to see if that bit of sidewalk has been cleaned, whether it’s garbage in the summer or snow in the winter.
街上的其他人会看着那段人行道是否已被清理干净，无论是夏天的垃圾还是冬天的雪。
If it hasn’t, they’ll complain to your building.
如果没有，他们会向您的大楼投诉。
Within the building, there’s a collective monitoring system.
大楼内有一个集体监控系统。
“Whose turn is it to do the sidewalk this week?” That was a really interesting thing to learn.
“这周轮到谁走人行道？”这是一件非常有趣的事情。
I think, in general, people were very communitarian.
我认为，总的来说，人们都是非常社群主义的。
One time in a train, I hadn’t eaten.
有一次在火车上，我没有吃饭。
I was doing computer research at the Max Planck Institute.
我当时在马克斯·普朗克研究所进行计算机研究。
Hadn’t had anything to eat for 24 hours.
24小时没吃东西了。
On the train back to Stuttgart, I was eating an entire 100-gram chocolate bar.
在返回斯图加特的火车上，我吃了一整块100克的巧克力。
The old lady sitting across from me in the compartment — she couldn’t contain herself after a bit.
包厢里坐在我对面的老太太——过了一会儿就按捺不住了。
She said, ‘‘You know that’s very unhealthy.
她说：“你知道这非常不健康。”
You shouldn’t be eating so much chocolate.” I thought, “That would never happen in England.
你不应该吃那么多巧克力。”我想，“这在英国永远不会发生。
Would never happen in Canada.” They would assume that I had a good reason to be eating 100 grams of chocolate, which indeed I did.
在加拿大永远不会发生。”他们会认为我有充分的理由吃 100 克巧克力，我确实这么做了。
In Germany, I think people at that time — I don’t know if it’s true anymore — I think they felt that it was their responsibility to express their moral views on what you had done.
在德国，我认为当时的人们 ——“我不知道这是否属实了”—— 我认为他们觉得有责任对你所做的事情表达他们的道德观点。
I think it was a good thing because I can really understand medieval and early modern village life in a way that I probably wouldn’t have growing up in Western Canada.
我认为这是一件好事，因为我可以真正理解中世纪和早期现代的乡村生活，而这是我在加拿大西部长大的人可能无法体会到的。
It would surprise me when I lived in southern Germany, that if my shoelace were untied, someone would tell me immediately.
当我住在德国南部时，如果我的鞋带解开，有人会立即告诉我，这会让我感到惊讶。
So, you had that exact experience.
所以，你有过同样的经历。
This is in Freiburg, not Stuttgart, but they’re not so far apart.
这是在弗莱堡，而不是斯图加特，但它们相距并不远。
They’re not so far apart.
他们相距并不远。
Exactly.
正是如此。
Freiburg is Catholic, Stuttgart’s Protestant, but I think the fundamental institution of the local community is very similar between the two.
弗莱堡是天主教徒，斯图加特是新教，但我认为两者当地社区的基本制度非常相似。
Now, how much do you think that coming from Western Canada has shaped how you understand these histories?
现在，您认为来自加拿大西部的身份在多大程度上影响了您对这些历史的理解？
Mostly it’s Europeans doing these European histories.
主要是欧洲人在创作这些欧洲历史。
How has it made you different?
它如何让你与众不同？
I think it’s been good in two ways.
我认为这有两个方面的好处。
One is, I have no dog in the race.
一是，我没有狗参加比赛。
I’m Canadian.
我是加拿大人。
I don’t have emotional attachment to the history of any particular society in Europe.
我对欧洲任何特定社会的历史都没有情感依恋。
I hope it enables me to free myself of the desire either to criticize or to rehabilitate the past of a particular country that I’m looking at.
我希望它能让我摆脱批评或恢复我所关注的特定国家的过去的欲望。
I’m not saying Canada doesn’t have a history, but it doesn’t have a long history.
我并不是说加拿大没有历史，但它的历史并不悠久。
It means that I’m endlessly curious about these places with deep, very, very long histories.
这意味着我对这些有着深厚、非常、非常悠久历史的地方有着无尽的好奇。
I wish I had a second life so that I could do Chinese economic history, which is the new frontier.
我希望我有第二次生命，这样我就可以研究中国经济史，这是一个新的领域。
More than half my graduate students are brilliant young Chinese students who want to do for pre-modern China, what a generation or more have done for medieval and early modern Europe.
我一半以上的研究生都是才华横溢的年轻中国学生，他们想为前现代中国做一些事情，就像一代人或更多一代人为中世纪和近代早期的欧洲所做的事情一样。
They’re busy comparing credit markets in eastern central Europe with credit markets in 19th-century or early 20th-century China.
他们正忙于将中东欧的信贷市场与 19 世纪或 20 世纪初中国的信贷市场进行比较。
The other completely uncharted frontier is, of course, Indian economic history.
当然，另一个完全未知的领域是印度经济史。
Often people will say, “Oh no, we couldn’t possibly go before the colonial period because there are no sources.” There are sources for pre-colonial India.
人们常常会说：“哦，不，我们不可能回到殖民时期之前，因为没有资料来源。”有关于前殖民时期印度的资料。
They just haven’t been analyzed by economic historians.
只是经济历史学家还没有对它们进行分析。
It’s a long answer to your question.
这是对你问题的一个很长的答案。
I think coming from a place with a short history has inspired me with a passion for understanding places with long histories.
我认为来自一个历史较短的地方激发了我了解历史悠久的地方的热情。
What’s the future of Canada?
加拿大的未来是什么？
Probably not as the 51st state.
可能不像第51个州。
I remember in the ’70s, Canadian literature writers and pointy heads in Canada were always lamenting that there wasn’t enough of a Canadian identity.
我记得在七十年代，加拿大文学作家和加拿大尖头人士总是感叹加拿大身份不够。
I, as a teenager, felt I and everyone else who was Canadian knew perfectly well what it meant to be Canadian.
作为一个青少年，我觉得我和其他所有加拿大人都非常清楚作为加拿大人意味着什么。
We didn’t really need to lament not having an identity, so I don’t really feel that the Canadian identity is somehow at risk.
我们真的不需要为没有身份而哀叹，所以我真的不觉得加拿大的身份在某种程度上处于危险之中。
I think there are ways in which Canada could improve.
我认为加拿大可以通过一些方法来改进。
I think the trade barriers between the provinces are a bad thing.
我认为各省之间的贸易壁垒是一件坏事。
I think there are various cartels that aren’t a great thing.
我认为存在各种卡特尔并不是一件好事。
But overall, I sense that Canada works pretty well.
但总的来说，我觉得加拿大运作得很好。
I wouldn’t defend to the death every single way that Canada currently works, but I don’t feel that it is about to dissolve in any way.
我不会誓死捍卫加拿大目前运作的每一种方式，但我不认为它会以任何方式解体。
Before my last question, let me just plug your new book again.
在我提出最后一个问题之前，让我再次插播一下你的新书。
It’s called Controlling Contagion: Epidemics and Institutions from the Black Death to Covid.
这本书的名字叫《控制传染病：从黑死病到新冠病毒的流行病和制度》。
I believe it is the very best book on those topics.
我相信这是关于这些主题的最好的书。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
Final question: what will you do next?
最后一个问题：接下来你会做什么？
I was a very lucky person.
我是一个非常幸运的人。
A private foundation called the Leverhulme Trust — and I’m giving it a plug here — has given me a gigantic project grant, which pays for three years for a young person to be me in Oxford, to do my teaching and my admin and so on, while I am a free woman, and I research and write a book about European serfdom from the year 1000 to 1861.
一个叫做 Leverhulme Trust 的私人基金会——我在这里给它一个塞子——给了我一笔巨额项目补助金，这笔钱为我在牛津的一个年轻人提供了三年的费用，让我从事教学和行政管理等工作，而我是一个自由的女人，我研究并写了一本关于 1000 年到 1861 年欧洲农奴制的书。
I’m looking at this hugely important social institution of serfdom, which I don’t even talk about in that book you very kindly plugged.
我正在研究这个非常重要的农奴制社会制度，我什至在你非常友善地插入的那本书中没有谈论它。
Watch the space.
观察空间。
In three or four years’ time, there should be another gigantic book.
三四年后，应该还会有另一本巨著。
Sheilagh Ogilvie, thank you very much.
希拉·奥格尔维，非常感谢你。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
I really enjoyed it.
我真的很喜欢它。