Russ Roberts and Tyler on COVID-19 (Ep. 90 - BONUS)

Okay.

好的。

Welcome, everybody.

欢迎大家。

Today is March 18th, 2020 this is a special edition of EconTalk to be released more or less simultaneously with Conversations with Tyler.

今天是 2020 年 3 月 18 日，这是 EconTalk 的特别版，或多或少与泰勒对话同时发布。

And that’s because my guest or co-conspirator in this conversation is long time EconTalk guest, Tyler Cowen of George Mason University.

这是因为我在这次谈话中的嘉宾或同谋是 EconTalk 的长期嘉宾、乔治梅森大学的泰勒·考恩 (Tyler Cowen)。

We’re streaming this live on the YouTube channel of the Mercatus Center, George Mason.

我们正在乔治梅森大学默卡特斯中心的 YouTube 频道上进行直播。

In general, I try not to do timely episodes but somehow something felt different this week.

总的来说，我尽量不及时播放剧集，但不知怎的，本周感觉有些不同。

For one, I felt an urge to connect with my audience as we all are hunkering down, sheltering in place, self quarantining, self isolating.

首先，当我们都蹲下来、就地避难、自我隔离、自我隔离时，我感到一种与观众交流的冲动。

Well, first of all Russ, my condolences for your father.

好吧，首先，拉斯，我对你父亲表示哀悼。

I know he was very important to you and a very sad event.

我知道他对你来说非常重要，这是一件非常悲伤的事情。

So we’re all with you and your family at this moment.

所以此刻我们都与你和你的家人在一起。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Thank you.

谢谢。

I have been hunkered down at home every day with some quick trips outside typically to use the printer at work or maybe to refresh some grocery supplies as quickly as I can.

我每天都呆在家里，偶尔会到外面去，通常是为了在工作时使用打印机，或者尽可能快地刷新一些杂货用品。

But I wake up, I move to my sofa, I get into information absorption mode and just let it rip until it’s time to go to bed at night.

但我醒来后，走到沙发上，进入信息吸收模式，任由它撕裂，直到晚上睡觉的时候。

I’ve been blogging and writing about this the whole time and really not doing very much else.

我一直在写博客和写关于这个的文章，实际上没有做太多其他事情。

Although, I am spending more time cooking.

不过，我花更多的时间做饭。

So what I see as the data come in is we ought to have greater concern as to the possible risks here for this being a very large scale negative event.

因此，随着数据的出现，我认为我们应该更加关注可能存在的风险，因为这是一次非常大规模的负面事件。

I’m not sure my personal mood has changed that much, but I am taking this more and more seriously.

我不确定我的个人情绪有多大变化，但我越来越认真地对待这件事。

Does that make sense to you?

这对你来说有意义吗？

Yeah, and I want to confess another personal matter which is that I work from home every day.

是的，我想承认另一个个人问题，那就是我每天都在家工作。

The only difference really in my life right now is that I have my two sons home from college and my wife who teaches high school math will be, after our session is done, Tyler, she’s going to take our broadband and use it to teach online to her class.

现在我生活中唯一的区别是，我的两个儿子从大学回家，而我教高中数学的妻子泰勒，在我们的课程结束后，她将使用我们的宽带并用它来在线教学。

That’s what I’m doing with my Law class, yes.

是的，这就是我在法律课上所做的事情。

When I encourage people to self isolate, which I did in the early beginning as a response to what I felt was not much of a governmental response initially, I felt there’s a lot we could do to reduce risk individually and voluntarily.

当我鼓励人们自我隔离时（我一开始就这样做了，作为对最初我认为政府反应不大的回应），我觉得我们可以做很多事情来单独和自愿地降低风险。

So I was encouraging people to do that.

所以我鼓励人们这样做。

Being aware of the fact that for me, it’s not much of a burden.

意识到对我来说，这并不是太大的负担。

I mean the whole crisis for me right now other than anxiety and worries about the future of the country and death of my loved ones who are even older than I am and other people’s loved ones, they main effect is that on Friday I impulsively went to Costco, which was better than Sunday I think.

我指的是现在对我来说的整个危机，除了对国家未来的焦虑和担忧，以及比我年长的亲人和其他人的亲人的死亡，他们的主要影响是周五我冲动地去了好市多，我认为这比周日更好。

Spent an hour waiting to check out.

等了一个小时才退房。

It was really a fascinating cultural experience.

这确实是一次令人着迷的文化体验。

I agree with that, but I think it will become hard for you most likely and hard for virtually everyone.

我同意这一点，但我认为这对你来说很可能会变得困难，对几乎每个人来说都很困难。

So imagine keeping on doing what you’re doing through a some greater number of months, imposing similar restrictions on your family, having to make some number of fairly stressful decisions along the way.

因此，想象一下，在更长的几个月里继续做你正在做的事情，对你的家人施加类似的限制，一路上必须做出一些相当有压力的决定。

Let’s talk again in June how hard or easy this is, right?

让我们六月份再讨论一下这有多难或多容易，对吗？

So we’re used to going outside and interacting with people face to face and-

所以我们习惯了出去和人们面对面交流，而且——

Not so much though.

不过没那么多。

Mostly we’re being cut off from that.

大多数情况下我们都被切断了。

Yeah.

是的。

I’m instituting, I think Skype coffee is a really good thing.

我认为 Skype 咖啡确实是个好东西。

I recommend that to everybody.

我向大家推荐这个。

People you might normally have coffee with, get a cup of coffee and sit on Skype or Zoom and chat with them, and that way it’s not so bad.

与你通常一起喝咖啡的人，喝杯咖啡，坐在 Skype 或 Zoom 上与他们聊天，这样也不算太糟糕。

It’s not great, but it’s not so bad.

这不是很好，但也不是那么糟糕。

What are you doing to get into that quarantine state of mind, if I may ask?

如果我可以问的话，你正在做什么才能进入隔离状态？

What do you mean by that?

你这是什么意思？

The understanding that it may be really some period of time before you are able to resume normal movements and interactions.

了解您可能需要一段时间才能恢复正常的活动和互动。

Any given day it may seem fine, but what mental readjustment are you making?

任何一天看起来似乎都不错，但你正在做哪些心理调整呢？

For me, the things that I’m anxious about, I usually spend the summer in California.

对我来说，我担心的事情，我通常会在加州度过夏天。

I wonder if that’s going to be possible.

我想知道这是否可能。

My son’s getting married in August in Australia.

我儿子八月在澳大利亚结婚。

That seems uncertain.

这似乎不确定。

A good friend of mine’s son was scheduled to be married.

我的一个好朋友的儿子预定要结婚了。

They’ve just postpone the wedding.

他们刚刚推迟了婚礼。

So those kinds of things they weigh on me a little bit.

所以这些事情对我来说有点压力。

The way I try to deal with that for me is it’s just an adventure.

我尝试解决这个问题的方式对我来说只是一次冒险。

I don’t to minimize it, it’s just part of the incredible experience.

我并不是要淡化它，这只是令人难以置信的体验的一部分。

A life that we have this experience together with my …

我们和我一起经历过这样的生活……

The two sons are home with my wife.

两个儿子和我妻子一起在家。

This is just something that we get to experience.

这只是我们必须经历的事情。

I try to look at it that way.

我尝试这样看待它。

I don’t know what’s going to happen.

我不知道会发生什么。

With that in mind, I’ve tried to stay as busy as possible and in fact I don’t think I’ve ever, ever been busier in my entire life.

考虑到这一点，我试图尽可能保持忙碌，事实上，我认为我一生中从未如此忙碌过。

Reading materials, writing, passing along advice, just processing information every day feels like an enormous sort of rush of things I have to do.

每天阅读材料、写作、传递建议、处理信息，感觉就像是我必须做的一大堆事情。

Even though in the sense of my physical surroundings, it’s quite static.

尽管就我的物理环境而言，它是相当静态的。

So I think that’s given me maybe an illusory sense of control, but it’s made it bearable for me.

所以我认为这可能给了我一种虚幻的控制感，但它让我可以忍受。

And again, I don’t think my personal mood has changed that much other than just feeling much, much busier.

再说一遍，我认为我的个人情绪没有发生太大变化，只是感觉更加忙碌。

Well, about a week ago, my wife was a little concerned with how focused I was on it, I was on the whole issue.

嗯，大约一周前，我的妻子有点担心我对这件事的专注程度，我对整个问题的关注程度。

And I realized this.

我意识到了这一点。

That’s just the way I deal with it.

这就是我处理问题的方式。

That’s part of my anxiety control mechanism.

这是我的焦虑控制机制的一部分。

It’s just, I think my human reaction to it and it sounds like it’s yours too.

只是，我认为我对它的人类反应，听起来也像是你的反应。

One striking fact about all of these events is I think it really drives home the difficulty for people of thinking in exponential terms.

关于所有这些事件的一个引人注目的事实是，我认为它确实让人们认识到以指数形式思考的困难。

So you and I have both been talking today about the importance of economic growth, compounding returns over time.

所以你和我今天都在谈论经济增长和随着时间的推移实现复合回报的重要性。

Having an economy growing at 3% is much, much better over time than having an economy growing at 1%.

随着时间的推移，经济增长 3% 比经济增长 1% 好得多。

How hard it is for people to grasp that.

人们要领会这一点是多么困难。

That’s old news to the two of us.

这对我们两个来说都是老新闻了。

Well, I’m going to think about that a different way.

好吧，我会以不同的方式思考这个问题。

I, like you, I spend a lot of time thinking about uncertainty and risk and growth, linear versus exponential.

我和你一样，花了很多时间思考不确定性、风险和增长，线性与指数增长。

And I’ve been struck by how hard it is for me to get my head around this.

令我震惊的是，我要解决这个问题是多么困难。

I was alluding to that earlier that I have relatives who watch Fox News and they were telling me a week ago, this is just like the flu.

我早些时候提到过，我有亲戚看福克斯新闻，他们一周前告诉我，这就像流感一样。

Maybe eight days ago, 10 days ago.

也许八天前，十天前。

I lost it.

我把它弄丢了。

I said, “1.5 million people dying in America is not like the flu.” And I was looking at these numbers, 40% to 70% of Americans will likely get coronavirus.

我说，“美国 150 万人的死亡与流感不同。”我查看了这些数字，40% 到 70% 的美国人可能会感染冠状病毒。

Let’s say that’s half.

假设这是一半。

So that gets you to about 150 160 million.

这样就得到了大约 1501.6 亿。

And that “1% will die,” that gets you to 1.6 million, presumably extra deaths.

而“1% 将会死亡”，这意味着 160 万人，大概是额外的死亡人数。

Keep in mind this affects the world as a whole.

请记住，这会影响整个世界。

Most countries do not have a public health system as good as ours.

大多数国家没有像我们这样好的公共卫生系统。

Ours is far from the best we’re seeing, by the way.

顺便说一句，我们的远非我们所看到的最好的。

We’ll get to that.

我们会解决这个问题的。

But also I think it’s now becoming fairly clear there’s quite a good chance that soon we will have say 20% unemployment in financial markets.

但我也认为，现在已经相当清楚，金融市场很有可能很快就会出现 20% 的失业率。

People are hoarding cash.

人们正在囤积现金。

Our real interest rates are rising.

我们的实际利率正在上升。

There seem to be many open questions, but the risks do seem to be rising and I would include the global front, the economic front.

似乎有很多悬而未决的问题，但风险似乎确实在上升，我会包括全球方面、经济方面。

Tensions between the United States and China are much worse than they had been.

美国和中国之间的紧张关系比以前严重得多。

China is calling it a virus from America.

中国称其为来自美国的病毒。

Trump is calling it the Chinese virus.

特朗普称其为“中国病毒”。

It’s even possible, that’s the single worst outcome of all of these events.

甚至有可能，这是所有这些事件中最糟糕的结果。

So there are many different angles here.

所以这里有很多不同的角度。

I think too many for any person to really take in and follow or grasp.

我认为对于任何人来说太多了，无法真正理解、遵循或掌握。

But again, to me the risks do seem to be rising.

但对我来说，风险似乎确实在上升。

Yeah, well those other parts I think are very relevant.

是的，我认为其他部分非常相关。

The economic and social pieces, political pieces.

经济和社会部分，政治部分。

Let’s focus for a few more minutes on the medical epidemiological side of this before we move on.

在我们继续之前，让我们再关注一下医学流行病学方面的几分钟。

What are your views?

您有何看法？

Do you have anything to say about this accusation, which is true, that we’ve been very slow to roll out testing?

对于我们推出测试速度非常缓慢的指控（这是事实），您有什么要说的吗？

A lot of people are arguing, South Korea figured this out, solved it.

很多人都在争论，韩国想通了这个问题，解决了这个问题。

They’re basically almost done with this problem.

他们基本上已经解决了这个问题。

We’ve been slow to test and as a result it’s we’ve opened up a huge Pandora’s box that we can’t fix.

我们的测试速度很慢，结果我们打开了一个无法修复的巨大潘多拉魔盒。

It’s very true that we have been slow to test.

确实，我们的测试速度很慢。

Some of that is because of FDA restrictions.

其中一些是由于 FDA 的限制。

Some of that is the administration simply not responding quickly enough.

其中一些原因是政府的反应不够迅速。

Some of it is reasons that still seems somewhat mysterious as to why we didn’t have better tests handy.

其中一些原因似乎仍然有些神秘，为什么我们手头没有更好的测试。

There’s a very good article in Wired a few days ago on this.

几天前，《连线》杂志上有一篇关于此的非常好的文章。

We don’t know the full extent of what happened, but I would not be so quick to assume that South Korea or any of the East Asian nations have it under control.

我们不知道发生的事情的全部范围，但我不会这么快就认为韩国或任何东亚国家已经控制住了局势。

There’s some very recent data suggesting that the number of cases may be rising in those countries.

最近的一些数据表明，这些国家的病例数量可能会增加。

It’s just hard to know.

这只是很难知道。

I think what people seem to have missed in this testing conversation is that there appears to be an enormous number of false positives.

我认为人们在这次测试对话中似乎错过的是，似乎存在大量误报。

So I’m encouraging people not to focus as closely on the caseload as more perhaps on the death count, unfortunately.

因此，不幸的是，我鼓励人们不要过于关注病例数，而应该更多地关注死亡人数。

I assume there’s false negatives too, but this idea that people are walking around who are asymptomatic, I’m sure there are some.

我认为也有假阴性的情况，但我确信确实存在一些无症状的人到处走动的想法。

But I wouldn’t be confident it’s all the people who have tested positive.

但我不相信所有检测结果呈阳性的人都是如此。

Maybe I have a different point of view on a number of those points.

也许我对其中一些观点有不同的看法。

I’m not sure the rate of false positives is very high.

我不确定误报率是否很高。

I see papers arguing it both ways.

我看到报纸对这两个方面都有争论。

If you look at the cruise ship testing-

如果你看看游轮测试——

50%.

50%。

50% in the one I saw.

我看到的那张是50%。

Well, there may be 50% who don’t have symptoms and who are just fine.

嗯，可能有 50% 的人没有症状并且状况良好。

But I don’t think there’s anything close to 50% false positives for tests well done.

但我认为，如果测试做得好，误报率不会接近 50%。

So if you look at say testing in Singapore, I don’t think they have anything close to a 50% rate of false positives.

因此，如果你看看新加坡的测试，我认为他们的误报率不会接近 50%。

Might the drive through tests in South Korea have a much higher false positives rate.

韩国的免下车测试误报率可能要高得多。

Certainly, I would expect that.

当然，我希望如此。

Even there, we don’t know.

即使在那里，我们也不知道。

But I think it’s very important to be shutting down as much as we can right now.

但我认为现在尽可能地关闭是非常重要的。

Agree.

同意。

Agree.

同意。

With the number of cases rising exponentially, if you’re going to apply testing and isolation and giving people ICU care and hospital beds and ventilators, you need for that problem to be manageable in size relative to your healthcare infrastructure or you do end up being like Lombardy in North Italy.

随着病例数量呈指数级增长，如果你要进行检测和隔离，并为人们提供 ICU 护理、病床和呼吸机，你需要让这个问题的规模相对于你的医疗基础设施而言是可控的，否则你最终就会像意大利北部的伦巴第那样。

So we could end up in that position say two weeks from now.

所以我们可能会在两周后陷入这样的境地。

Yeah, I mean a lot of things got put in, I would call it a deep freeze very quickly.

是的，我的意思是很多东西都被放进去，我很快就会称之为深度冷冻。

Sports being the obvious one.

体育运动是显而易见的。

Broadway I think followed shortly after that.

我想百老汇在那之后不久就跟进了。

I think the place where the biggest hole was bars and restaurants and the government did that.

我认为最大的漏洞是酒吧和餐馆，而政府就是这么做的。

Most of our restaurant owners and goers I don’t think particularly were excited about self regulating there.

我认为我们的大多数餐厅老板和顾客并不对那里的自我调节感到特别兴奋。

But certainly, churches, synagogues, mosques all just very quickly shut down, which is pretty amazing.

但当然，教堂、犹太教堂、清真寺都很快就关闭了，这非常令人惊讶。

Plenty have not, right?

很多都没有，对吧？

Plenty of religious ceremonies are still up and running.

许多宗教仪式仍在进行。

You can walk around different parts of Virginia and see people intermingling at a large scale.

您可以在弗吉尼亚州的不同地区漫步，看到人们大规模的交往。

We’re not really quite there yet in my view.

在我看来，我们还没有真正做到这一点。

If 30% of Americans, if you poll them, they say they’re not even worried.

如果你对 30% 的美国人进行民意调查，他们会说他们根本不担心。

So there’s been a huge failure of communications.

因此，沟通出现了巨大的失败。

Some of that comes from our President, but it’s really not just that there are so many businesses, institutions in the nonprofit world that just have been very, very slow to respond.

其中一些来自我们的总统，但这实际上不仅仅是因为非营利世界中有如此多的企业、机构反应非常非常缓慢。

Yeah, fair enough.

是的，很公平。

I do think staying home is the single biggest thing we can do right now and obviously, closing some things through regulation and government is going to make it more likely than not.

我确实认为呆在家里是我们现在能做的最重要的事情，显然，通过监管和政府关闭一些事情将使这更有可能发生。

I know one of my proposals is we should have things that make it more fun for people to be at home.

我知道我的建议之一是我们应该提供一些东西，让人们呆在家里更有趣。

So some of the entertainment companies are having free streaming on cable of some of their back catalog.

因此，一些娱乐公司正在通过有线电视免费播放他们的一些旧目录。

Maybe that’s a marginal effect — but if it saves a few lives?

也许这只是边际效应——但如果它能挽救一些生命呢？

So whatever we can do so that people are willing or indeed maybe even in some cases eager to stay home, making childcare issues easier.

因此，我们可以尽一切努力让人们愿意，甚至在某些情况下甚至渴望呆在家里，从而使儿童保育问题变得更加容易。

If you just think through all the different logistical issues with staying home, it’s actually quite complex.

如果你考虑一下呆在家里的所有不同的后勤问题，它实际上是相当复杂的。

I would like to see our nonprofit sector get on the ball very quickly with delivering supplies to people who need it and who shouldn’t be going out or can’t get out.

我希望看到我们的非营利部门迅速行动起来，向需要的人和不应该外出或无法外出的人提供物资。

We’re starting to solve on this, but on almost all fronts, we’re starting way too late.

我们正在开始解决这个问题，但在几乎所有方面，我们开始得太晚了。

Ideally, we should have been doing this at some point earlier in February.

理想情况下，我们应该在二月初的某个时候这样做。

Let’s move to the more economic side of things.

让我们转向更经济的方面。

I’m not sure how important those things.

我不确定这些事情有多重要。

I mean, I really liked that …

我的意思是，我真的很喜欢……

Again, I have Amazon Prime, so I have lots of stuff to watch.

再说一次，我有亚马逊 Prime，所以我有很多东西要看。

I have Netflix, I have lots of stuff to watch.

我有 Netflix，我有很多东西要看。

But if you don’t have those, YouTube has oh what, only about a trillion hours of entertainment.

但如果你没有这些，YouTube 也只有大约一万亿小时的娱乐内容。

I think the stir crazy aspect of this …

我认为这令人疯狂的方面......

Now you’re right, you suggested earlier that after six weeks, this might feel differently than it does now.

现在你是对的，你之前建议六周后，感觉可能会与现在不同。

I think the financial side of this for people who are not being able to get to work, can’t go to work as is the much bigger issue obviously.

我认为对于那些无法上班的人来说，财务方面的问题显然是更大的问题。

Of course.

当然。

Let’s turn to that.

让我们转向这一点。

You said unemployment might be 20%, of course, it’s higher than that right now in a real sense, in an unmeasured non-quantified sense.

你说失业率可能是20%，当然，它比现在是真正意义上的、不可衡量的、非量化的意义上更高。

A lot of people “aren’t working” and I would as I’m sure you would, I’d encourage you to look at employment as opposed to unemployment in the coming weeks and months.

很多人“没有工作”，我会，我相信你也会，我鼓励你在未来几周和几个月内关注就业而不是失业。

But if the economy took a break, if government had announced, irrespective of this virus, that everybody has a forced two week vacation.

但如果经济暂停，如果政府宣布，无论病毒如何，每个人都被迫休假两周。

Everybody goes home for two weeks, stays home, it’s good.

每个人都回家两周，呆在家里，很好。

We’re going to have more family time.

我们将会有更多的家庭时间。

You know GDP would go down in those two weeks if we could measure it in a two week period.

你知道，如果我们能够在两周内衡量 GDP，那么这两周内 GDP 将会下降。

We don’t.

我们不知道。

Some of that would be made up for in the two weeks after because people would be buying or creating things that weren’t made during those two weeks.

其中一些将在两周后得到弥补，因为人们会购买或创造在那两周内未制造的东西。

Well, two to four weeks, those are easy cases.

嗯，两到四个星期，这些都是简单的情况。

If you think of many service sectors as having to shut down say until August, which is quite a possible scenario in some cases even later.

如果你认为许多服务业必须关闭，比如说直到八月，在某些情况下，甚至更晚的情况下，这种情况很有可能发生。

That to me is greatly concerning and it may vary across sectors.

对我来说，这非常令人担忧，而且不同行业的情况可能有所不同。

So if you think about the NBA, whenever the NBA is ready to play games again, I mean the players will show up the next day and there’ll be ready, right?

所以如果你想想NBA，每当NBA准备好再次比赛时，我的意思是球员们会在第二天出现并且准备好，对吗？

That will come back very quickly.

那很快就会回来。

But if you think of small businesses, say restaurants, the big chains aside, they’re typically thinly capitalized.

但如果你想到小型企业，比如餐馆，除了​​大型连锁企业，它们通常资本薄弱。

Well, I’ll make a bet with you right now, Tyler, that this four or five months from now, it won’t look like it does now.

好吧，我现在就和你打赌，泰勒，四五个月后，情况将不会像现在这样。

In terms of the expectations of sub quarantining and self isolation and things being closed.

就隔离和自我隔离以及关闭事物的期望而言。

I think we’re going to get to see Tom Brady in a Tampa Bay Buccaneer uniform.

我想我们会看到汤姆·布雷迪穿着坦帕湾海盗队队服。

For example-

例如-

On TV, but not with a crowd.

在电视上，但不是在人群中。

Yes.

是的。

It’ll be on TV.

它将在电视上播出。

They’re playing basketball games to be televised and people watch them.

他们正在打篮球比赛，并通过电视转播，人们会观看他们的比赛。

But even in China where the number of new cases is really in most parts of the country, genuinely very low, they are not returning with live sporting events.

但即使在中国，全国大部分地区的新增病例数量确实非常低，他们也不会随着体育赛事的直播而回归。

Keep in mind we will have a pool of never infected people, which will be fairly large in absolute numbers and what risks we will be willing to take.

请记住，我们将拥有一群从未感染过的人，其绝对数量将相当大，以及我们愿意承担的风险。

Insurance companies would allow, our liability system and corporate lawyers would be willing to allow.

保险公司会允许，我们的责任体系和公司律师也会愿意允许。

When you think through all of that stickiness, I think we’re really not so close to resuming many of these shutdown activities.

当你仔细考虑所有这些粘性时，我认为我们实际上距离恢复许多此类关闭活动还差得远。

Yeah, I’m a little more optimistic than you, but if you said to me, “How do you know?” I’d say, “It’s probably just empty optimism.”

是的，我比你乐观一点，但如果你对我说：“你怎么知道？”我会说，“这可能只是空洞的乐观。”

But you agree there’s far too much litigation in American society, right?

但你同意美国社会的诉讼太多了，对吗？

Far too easy to sue people for random reasons.

出于随意的原因起诉人们太容易了。

Why won’t that-

为什么不会——

Yeah.

是的。

I assume that’s part of the reason.

我认为这是部分原因。

I say that’s part of the reason businesses are overly aggressive about shutting down.

我认为这就是企业过于激进地关闭的部分原因。

Disneyland, my understanding was Disneyland got a special exemption.

迪士尼乐园，我的理解是迪士尼乐园获得了特殊豁免。

They could stay open and then they shut down anyway because that’s a litigation nightmare I assume.

他们可以保持开放，然后无论如何都会关闭，因为我认为这是一场诉讼噩梦。

So I think the reopening decisions, especially in more bureaucratic corporations, it will be very hard for everyone to sign off and agree.

因此，我认为重新开放的决定，特别是在官僚主义较多的公司中，每个人都很难签署并同意。

Yes, we’re going to go ahead.

是的，我们要继续。

There’s going to be an open Disneyland again.

迪士尼乐园将再次开放。

We’re going to have spectators at NBA games.

我们将有观众观看 NBA 比赛。

The risk of bad publicity, social media storms against companies whether true or not, someone might have died as a result of going to a game.

不良宣传的风险，社交媒体对公司的攻击，无论真实与否，有人可能会因为观看比赛而死亡。

Over some time horizon social norms may shift and a lot of people might just say, “Look, we’re just going to take these chances and deal with it.” But I don’t think we’re close to that.

在一段时间内，社会规范可能会发生变化，很多人可能会说，“看，我们只是要抓住这些机会并应对它。”但我认为我们还没有接近这一点。

And certainly, our legal system is not close to that.

当然，我们的法律体系与此相差甚远。

And human resources departments are not close to that.

人力资源部门与此相差甚远。

I guess I disagree a little bit.

我想我有点不同意。

I mean, I saw an earlier interview you did on this where you suggested some larger cultural changes and I think are likely.

我的意思是，我看到您之前对此进行的采访，其中您建议进行一些更大的文化变革，我认为这是可能的。

I base that partly on the idea that right now, people under the age of 25 were having trouble self isolating.

我这么说的部分原因是，目前 25 岁以下的人在自我隔离方面遇到了困难。

Part of it’s because they think they’re not at risk.

部分原因是他们认为自己没有风险。

Part of it is maybe they don’t worry so much.

部分原因是他们可能不太担心。

They don’t have as much of a forward looking thought process.

他们没有太多前瞻性的思维过程。

Part of it is, hey, I want to have a good time.

部分原因是，嘿，我想玩得开心。

I think the human impulse of that is going to be strong, but the legal part is huge.

我认为人类的冲动将会很强烈，但法律部分是巨大的。

I agree with you there.

我同意你的观点。

Well, think of the labor market as being a very complex matching problem.

好吧，将劳动力市场视为一个非常复杂的匹配问题。

Right?

正确的？

After the financial crisis of 2008, 2009, unemployment was much higher.

2008年、2009年金融危机之后，失业率要高得多。

It took really a very, very long time for labor markets to come back.

劳动力市场确实花了非常非常长的时间才恢复。

That was work over a decade, and that was not 20% unemployment.

那是十多年的工作，而且失业率还不到 20%。

It was not with any kind of public health crisis going on.

这并不是在发生任何类型的公共卫生危机。

Some workers will want to be laid off to collect unemployment insurance or collected it more quickly.

一些工人会希望被解雇以领取失业保险或更快地领取失业保险。

Revenues for many businesses will go down.

许多企业的收入将会下降。

The ties between employers and workers will end up weakened.

雇主和工人之间的联系最终将被削弱。

People will go off and do other things.

人们会离开去做其他事情。

Okay.

好的。

I guess I’m not sure.

我想我也不确定。

So much of the economy is going to continue humming along in the background, like we’re doing right now.

经济的很大一部分将继续在后台蓬勃发展，就像我们现在所做的那样。

Here we are producing this podcast.

我们正在制作这个播客。

Whether universities can successfully teach classes online, of course, is a struggle, but I think a lot of things are going to stay in place.

当然，大学是否能够成功地在线授课是一个难题，但我认为很多事情都会保持不变。

I’m not sure how important is the organizational capital of a restaurant.

我不确定餐厅的组织资本有多重要。

They’re going to put a sign out for waiters, and people are going to go work there who used to work there before.

他们会为服务员贴出一个标志，以前在那里工作过的人们会去那里工作。

I think restaurants-

我认为餐馆——

Let me say it differently.

让我换个说法。

The 2008 crisis was that part of it, a lot of pieces to it, obviously, but the labor market part was that we had two sectors of the economy, construction particularly, and then manufacturing that took a massive hit.

2008 年的危机就是其中的一部分，显然，它涉及很多方面，但劳动力市场部分是我们有两个经济部门，特别是建筑业，然后是遭受巨大打击的制造业。

Those workers had to figure out what they should do next.

这些工人必须弄清楚他们下一步应该做什么。

A lot of them sat on the sidelines.

他们中的很多人都坐在一旁。

They couldn’t find anything that was attractive to them.

他们找不到任何对他们有吸引力的东西。

It was a huge matching problem.

这是一个巨大的匹配问题。

You’re sitting in Las Vegas, and you’re not sure whether you’re going to have a job in a week, a month, six months, or a year, and you kind of hope it’ll be a week, so you wait.

你坐在拉斯维加斯，不确定自己是否会在一周、一个月、六个月或一年后找到工作，你希望是一周，所以你等待。

You don’t relocate.

你不搬家。

You don’t move.

你不动。

You don’t retrain.

你不重新训练。

You don’t imagine realistically that this entire industry that you’ve spent your life in is never going to come back for a long time, at least to the level it was before.

你不会现实地想象，你一生从事的整个行业在很长一段时间内都不会恢复，至少不会恢复到以前的水平。

You don’t adjust, and that’s a huge problem.

你不调整，这是一个大问题。

This seems a little different, or do you not think so?

这看起来有点不同，或者你不这么认为吗？

Well, now it’s face-to-face services taking a big hit, which in America is significant.

嗯，现在面对面的服务受到了很大的打击，这在美国意义重大。

True.

真的。

I think an advantage the American economy has…

我认为美国经济有一个优势……

We have more big business than just about any other economy, or close to it, and big businesses will be much more stable than smaller ones, say, as you might find in Italy, but you mentioned universities.

我们拥有的大企业比任何其他经济体都多，或者接近任何其他经济体，大企业将比小企业稳定得多，比如说，正如您在意大利可能会发现的那样，但您提到了大学。

Let’s say come fall semester universities are still online.

假设秋季学期大学仍然在线。

What percentage of the students will still sign up and pay tuition or at what rate?

有多少比例的学生仍会报名并支付学费或按什么比例？

I don’t think anyone knows.

我想没有人知道。

Good point.

好点。

Universities don’t have a lot of control over their labor costs.

大学对其劳动力成本没有太多控制权。

When you apply these possible revenue hits to fairly bureaucratized segments of our society, again, I think you’re going to see serious problems, much bigger than during the financial crisis.

当你将这些可能的收入打击应用于我们社会中相当官僚化的部分时，我认为你会再次看到严重的问题，比金融危机期间严重得多。

Again, that was only about 10% to 11% unemployment.

同样，失业率仅为 10% 至 11% 左右。

Probably now we’re talking something much higher.

也许现在我们正在谈论更高层次的东西。

How long should it take?

需要多长时间？

Yeah.

是的。

This may not be that.

这可能不是那样。

There’s not a clear end date in a way that you usually see with financial crises.

金融危机并没有常见的明确结束日期。

I don’t mean to be the downer guy here, but…

我并不是想成为这里令人沮丧的人，但是……

But you are.

但你是。

Our goal is to talk these through honestly.

我们的目标是诚实地讨论这些问题。

There are people I know more pessimistic than I am.

我认识的有些人比我更悲观。

Those are some of the factors that worry me.

这些是令我担心的一些因素。

As you know, our own economy, labor markets are so over-regulated, that will hinder our adjustment.

大家知道，我们自己的经济、劳动力市场监管过度，这会阻碍我们的调整。

Yeah, I think that’s true.

是的，我认为这是真的。

It’s fascinating how many calls there have been in the last couple of days for relaxing various kinds of regulations, the most obvious being FDA approval for testing for the virus, relaxing HIPAA regulations, privacy regulations on telemedicine so that older people can get medical care without having to go out into public.

令人着迷的是，在过去的几天里，有很多要求放宽各种法规的呼声，其中最明显的是 FDA 批准病毒检测、放宽 HIPAA 法规、远程医疗隐私法规，以便老年人无需外出即可获得医疗护理。

Some of these things, of course, you’re going to have longer-term consequences.

当然，其中一些事情会产生长期后果。

We may decide some of these regulations weren’t so productive to start with.

我们可能会认为其中一些法规一开始就没有那么有效。

I don’t know, but you are painting a much more dire picture than I expected.

我不知道，但你描绘的画面比我想象的要可怕得多。

I would say that if you are right, Donald Trump will not be reelected.

我想说，如果你是对的，唐纳德·特朗普将不会连任。

You’re suggesting he’s going to be in the middle of a major recession.

你暗示他将陷入严重的经济衰退。

Accusations that he bungled the opening of this and unemployment in the 20% range, he’s cooked.

有人指责他搞砸了这一举措，失业率高达 20%，他已经完蛋了。

I’m not sure that’s true about Trump.

我不确定特朗普的情况是否属实。

If you think of this as analogous to a wartime event, clearly FDR did not manage Pearl Harbor very well, but he certainly was reelected.

如果你把这比作战时事件，显然罗斯福没有很好地管理珍珠港，但他确实再次当选。

Some electorates, possibly still ours, have a tendency to stick with the incumbent in situations that feel like war time.

一些选民，可能仍然是我们的选民，在感觉像战争时期的情况下倾向于坚持现任者。

I don’t know if that’s still true, but I wouldn’t leap to the conclusion that it’s not.

我不知道这是否仍然正确，但我不会妄下结论说它不是。

Interesting.

有趣的。

That’s very tricky.

这非常棘手。

Again, I think we need to think through other parts of the global economy.

我再次认为，我们需要考虑全球经济的其他部分。

Economic growth in China right now almost certainly is negative.

目前中国的经济增长几乎可以肯定是负增长。

They are bouncing back, but the Chinese economy has been sustained by momentum.

它们正在反弹，但中国经济一直保持着强劲的势头。

They’re kind of off-balance sheet — municipal debts are very, very high.

它们是资产负债表外的——市政债务非常非常高。

That’s a major problem for them.

这对他们来说是一个大问题。

I know our economy is not so closely tied to the Chinese economy, but European economies are.

我知道我们的经济与中国经济的联系并不那么紧密，但欧洲经济却如此。

Many European governments seem to be managing this worse than the United States, certainly worse than East Asia.

许多欧洲政府在这方面的管理似乎比美国更糟糕，当然比东亚更糟糕。

At China.

在中国。

Yes, China, there’s been a systemic failure on this, and Trump is certainly part of it, but sort of just getting rid of Trump or criticizing Trump, I think that’s very much the wrong way to go here.

是的，中国在这方面存在系统性失败，特朗普当然是其中的一部分，但只是摆脱特朗普或批评特朗普，我认为这是非常错误的做法。

We need to have accountability more generally.

我们需要更广泛的问责制。

Yeah.

是的。

Well, I’m just going to make this observation.

好吧，我只是要做这个观察。

You can comment if you want, but I find it…

如果你愿意的话可以发表评论，但我发现......

I love Twitter.

我喜欢推特。

I have a bit of a love-hate relationship with it, as my listeners know, because it can be a ugly sinkhole of attention, of acrimony, and other things, but I think for me, and I think for you as well, based on our pre-recording conversation, it’s a huge source of information.

正如我的听众所知，我对它有点爱恨交加，因为它可能是一个丑陋的注意力、尖刻和其他事情的深坑，但我认为对我来说，我也认为对你来说，根据我们预先录制的对话，它是一个巨大的信息来源。

It’s where I go to find out what’s going on right now.

这是我去了解现在发生的事情的地方。

That’s the positive side.

这是积极的一面。

The negative side is the number of people who are using the crisis to advance their ideological or political agenda.

消极的一面是利用危机来推进其意识形态或政治议程的人数。

Of course.

当然。

There are things to learn from this about the proper role of government, the relative level of responsibility of, say, a Republican or a Democrat, but the zeal and ease with which people paint this situation as the result of problem X or Y that conforms with their preexisting worldview, and I include myself in this guilty party, that’s very depressing to me.

关于政府的正确角色，例如共和党或民主党的相对责任水平，我们可以从中学到一些东西，但是人们热情而轻松地将这种情况描述为符合他们先前存在的世界观的问题X或Y的结果，而我将自己包括在这个有罪的一方中，这对我来说非常令人沮丧。

Does that get to you at all?

这对你有影响吗？

Yes.

是的。

I try to follow better people on Twitter, but even following better people, one sees quite a bit of this.

我尝试在 Twitter 上关注更好的人，但即使关注更好的人，人们也会看到很多这样的情况。

But that said, I think we will have to make significant adjustments in a post-coronavirus world.

但话虽如此，我认为我们必须在后冠状病毒世界中做出重大调整。

I think the upside is to believe that at least biomedicine will be far swifter and better funded and less regulated, in the good sense of that word, and our response capabilities, when all this is over, for the next event will be far, far greater.

我认为好的一面是相信生物医学至少会更快、资金更好、监管更少，而且当这一切结束时，我们的反应能力将大大增强。

We may overreact in some 9/11 kind of ways like we’ve done arguably with airport procedures, but if there’s one part of the economy that will get a huge, beneficial boost, I think it is our biomedical capabilities and our public health infrastructure.

我们可能会以某种 9/11 事件的方式反应过度，就像我们在机场程序中所做的那样，但如果说经济的某个部分将得到巨大、有益的推动，我认为那就是我们的生物医学能力和公共卫生基础设施。

That’s true.

这是真的。

Let talk for a second about a possible upside of the story, a cheerier story.

让我们谈谈这个故事可能的好处，一个更愉快的故事。

Is it irresponsible to have this conversation, Tyler?

泰勒，这样的谈话是不负责任的吗？

Are we risking that people will misunderstand this?

我们是否冒着人们误解这一点的风险？

I think not.

我认为不是。

I’m going to take a chance here and talk about what I think is a cheerier story.

我打算借此机会谈谈我认为更愉快的故事。

Is it possible that we’ve overestimated the death rate based on Italy and Seattle, Washington because they’re older populations that got infected?

我们是否有可能高估了意大利和华盛顿州西雅图的死亡率，因为他们是被感染的老年人？

Is it possible that one of the things being tested right now for treatment will turn out to be fairly effective, that a vaccine will be here in not 18 months, but more like something shorter, but that the treatment will carry us over until that happens and that some of these more depressing or a cataclysmic economic changes will be much smaller than you’re worrying about?

有没有可能现在正在测试的治疗方法之一会被证明是相当有效的，疫苗将在不到 18 个月的时间内问世，而更像是更短的时间，但治疗方法会持续到那一天发生，而其中一些更令人沮丧或灾难性的经济变化将比你担心的小得多？

I think those are very good questions.

我认为这些都是非常好的问题。

I think any conversation about these matters has an irresponsible element, no matter how carefully you do it, and I take that very seriously.

我认为任何关于这些问题的谈话都有不负责任的成分，无论你做得多么小心，我都非常认真地对待这一点。

I think ultimately you have to compare what you are saying or writing to what you think the discourse will be like without you, but I don’t think it’s possible to have a completely responsible conversation.

我认为最终你必须将你所说或所写的内容与你认为没有你的情况下的对话进行比较，但我认为不可能进行完全负责任的对话。

A number of the specific points you raised, a vaccine…

您提出的一些具体问题，疫苗……

Given that most people are not at all harmed by coronavirus, the safety of the vaccine has to really be very high.

鉴于大多数人根本不会受到冠状病毒的伤害，疫苗的安全性必须非常高。

Right?

正确的？

Good point.

好点。

That will take a while.

这需要一段时间。

To the best of my knowledge, we’ve never developed an effective vaccine for any other coronavirus.

据我所知，我们从未开发出针对任何其他冠状病毒的有效疫苗。

Now, I do think, from what I read and hear, it is possible to do it now, but it is not a trivial procedure.

现在，我确实认为，从我读到和听到的情况来看，现在就可以做到，但这不是一个简单的程序。

It is doing something for the first time.

这是第一次做某事。

It’s doing it in an environment that is highly regulated and bureaucratized, where institutions are slow to respond.

它是在高度监管和官僚化的环境中进行的，机构反应缓慢。

Simple issues like scaling up ventilator production and distribution, we are still far behind the curve, even though we are really quite sure that is an urgent matter.

像扩大呼吸机生产和分销这样的简单问题，我们仍然远远落后于曲线，尽管我们非常确定这是一个紧迫的问题。

Even if you’re relatively optimistic about this crisis, we are to this day performing poorly on that matter.

即使你对这场危机相对乐观，但迄今为止我们在这方面的表现仍然很差。

Will we get the vaccine right?

我们能正确接种疫苗吗？

Fair enough.

很公平。

We’ll see, I guess.

我想我们会看到的。

I spent most of my life as an optimist.

我一生的大部分时间都是一个乐观主义者。

Most of that optimism ended or I think around…

大部分乐观情绪都结束了，或者我想......

It’s slowly starting to decline through the 2000s as events…

到了 2000 年代，随着事件的发生，它开始慢慢下降……

maybe more, and I got older.

也许更多，而且我也变老了。

I think when you get older, you get crankier.

我想当你年纪大了，你就会变得脾气暴躁。

I think the 2000s were not nearly as bad as people think, by the way.

顺便说一句，我认为 2000 年代并不像人们想象的那么糟糕。

It’s a separate matter, but they did not dent my optimism maybe as much as yours.

这是另一回事，但它们并没有像你那样削弱我的乐观情绪。

Yeah.

是的。

In the face of your gloominess, I found my natural optimism re-arising.

面对你的忧郁，我发现我天生的乐观又重新出现了。

I don’t know whether that’s good or bad.

我不知道这是好还是坏。

I guess we’ll see what actually happens.

我想我们会看看到底会发生什么。

It’s kind of foolish to talk about it or to forecast it.

谈论它或预测它有点愚蠢。

I do think there’s an interesting dynamic going on now between…

我确实认为现在……之间正在发生一种有趣的动态。

It reminds them a little bit of other social issues, climate change, you name it, where people argue that we should be more worried than we might otherwise be because that otherwise will encourage people to be less worried.

它让他们想起了一些其他社会问题，比如气候变化，凡是你能想到的问题，人们认为我们应该比原本可能更加担心，因为否则会鼓励人们减少担心。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I find that hard to be sensitive to.

我发现很难对此敏感。

There was a big dustup yesterday on Twitter because John Ioannidis suggested that were in the dark here.

昨天 Twitter 上发生了一场大争论，因为 John Ioannidis 表示我们对此一无所知。

We might be overreacting.

我们可能反应过度了。

We don’t have much data.

我们没有太多数据。

Us and Taleb and others responded back, “That’s why you have to be extra careful.”

我们和塔勒布等人回应道：“这就是为什么你必须格外小心。”

Yes, I agree with Taleb on that.

是的，我同意塔勒布的观点。

I would say I’ve become much more pessimistic about our ability to respond to climate change, because what we’re seeing with coronavirus is how unwilling so many people are to act until the very last moment, if even that.

我想说的是，我对我们应对气候变化的能力变得更加悲观，因为我们在冠状病毒方面看到的是，这么多人直到最后一刻才不愿意采取行动，即使是到了最后一刻。

To make a sacrifice.

做出牺牲。

Right.

正确的。

Yeah.

是的。

Sacrifices are hard.

牺牲是艰难的。

It’s not easy.

这并不容易。

A big free-rider problem there, obviously, socially, it’s in both of those situations, climate change and this, right?

显然，在社会方面，搭便车的一个大问题在这两种情况下都存在，气候变化和这个，对吗？

The idea that I’m going to make a sacrifice of lifestyle for some promise of reduced external harm is hard for people to…

我要牺牲生活方式来换取减少外部伤害的承诺，这一想法对人们来说很难……

It’s just hard to motivate people that way.

以这种方式激励人们是很困难的。

I think the thing I’m recommending for a lot of people now is to find a sphere of activity, no matter how small or how local, that you feel you can control and you can do at home and you can contribute to.

我认为我现在向很多人建议的事情是找到一个活动范围，无论多么小或多么本地化，你觉得你可以控制，你可以在家里做，你可以做出贡献。

This feeling of powerlessness may set in, that will cause people to panic more or become too depressed or just make them much less productive, or spread to their families, or maybe cause them to go out and want to get drunk and become a spreader in some manner, so really to think long and hard.

这种无力感可能会出现，这会导致人们更加恐慌，变得过于沮丧，或者只是降低他们的生产力，或者蔓延到他们的家人，或者可能导致他们出去喝醉，并以某种方式成为传播者，所以真的要认真思考。

I’m not really counseling stoicism.

我并不是真的在劝告坚忍。

I’m counseling a kind of action, something you can do.

我正在建议一种行动，一些你可以做的事情。

Even if it ends up only being a placebo, you will feel more in control.

即使它最终只是安慰剂，你也会感觉更有控制力。

Of course, there’s a chance that will pay off and have some benefits.

当然，有机会获得回报并带来一些好处。

I think that’s an important idea to promote at this point.

我认为这是目前需要推广的一个重要想法。

Well, I like the idea that while you’re home, if you’re not usually at home, to try to have a project that you’re…

好吧，我喜欢这样的想法：当你在家时，如果你通常不在家，尝试做一个你正在做的项目……

You’re alluding to that effectively, which is teach yourself a language, an instrument, learn how to draw.

你实际上是在暗示这一点，那就是自学一门语言、一种乐器，学习如何画画。

There’s just so many wonderful things you can do online now without having to go out of your house.

现在，您无需走出家门，就可以在网上做很多美妙的事情。

You can make yourself get better at something.

你可以让自己在某件事上变得更好。

That’s your niche idea, right?

这是你的利基想法，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

Work at something.

做某事。

I’m doing a plank every day.

我每天都做平板支撑。

I’m getting down on the ground, trying to improve my core.

我正在脚踏实地，努力提高我的核心。

I’m taking a walk every day, which I didn’t otherwise do.

我每天都会散步，否则我不会这样做。

I think it’s great to try to create those habits for yourself in this a window of enforced unusual behavior.

我认为在这个强制的不寻常行为窗口中尝试为自己养成这些习惯是很棒的。

In terms of policy, what do you expect on the fiscal and monetary fronts moving forward?

在政策方面，您对未来财政和货币方面的进展有何预期？

Well, great minds think alike, Tyler.

好吧，英雄所见略同，泰勒。

That’s what I wanted to talk about next.

这就是我接下来想谈的。

Well, I think there’s some confusion between the abatement of suffering and what we would normally call fiscal stimulus.

嗯，我认为减轻痛苦和我们通常所说的财政刺激之间存在一些混淆。

A lot of what people are proposing is fiscal stimulus isn’t going to stimulate anything.

人们提出的很多建议是财政刺激不会刺激任何东西。

People aren’t making things because they can’t come to work or go out of their house.

人们之所以不制造东西，是因为他们无法上班或走出家门。

Putting money in people’s hands has no impact on the overall economy.

把钱放到人们手中对整体经济没有影响。

It will help them pay their rent, which will reduce that cascading worry that I mentioned earlier from the real estate developer I had talked to.

它将帮助他们支付租金，这将减少我之前提到的与我交谈过的房地产开发商的连锁担忧。

That’s going to be, I think, extremely important in reducing the set of economic readjustments that you were more focused on than I was in the earlier part of the conversation.

我认为，这对于减少一系列经济调整极其重要，你们比我在谈话的前半部分更关注这一点。

But the idea that somehow we’re going to solve the economic disruption through traditional means, either monetary or fiscal, seems to me to be very unlikely.

但在我看来，我们将通过货币或财政等传统手段来解决经济混乱的想法似乎不太可能。

I worry that we don’t know how many businesses are bouncing back and how many cannot be kept on life support.

我担心我们不知道有多少企业正在复苏，有多少企业无法维持生命。

Again, if it’s a month or two, I think almost all of them can be kept on life support, and we could throw money at the problem, and then in two months just pick up the pieces and be the America we once knew.

再说一次，如果是一两个月，我认为几乎所有人都可以维持生命，我们可以花钱解决这个问题，然后在两个月内收拾残局，成为我们曾经认识的美国。

But if it’s becoming five or six months or longer, then the amount of money you have to send, and people just being kept in unproductive activities…

但如果它变成五六个月或更长时间，那么你必须寄出的金额，而人们只能继续从事非生产性活动......

You actually want some of those restaurant owners maybe to end up as UPS drivers.

你实际上希望其中一些餐馆老板最终成为 UPS 司机。

Right?

正确的？

We don’t know how many.

我们不知道有多少。

The degree of optimism or pessimism, it really seems to matter for economic stimulus.

乐观或悲观的程度，似乎对经济刺激确实很重要。

If you’re a relative optimist about the progression of the virus, I think you should be relatively pro-stimulus, like, “Just keep it running for now.

如果你对病毒的发展持相对乐观态度，我认为你应该相对支持刺激措施，比如，“现在就让它继续运行吧。

Things will be back.”

事情会回来的。”

Now, you have a document you put out, and we’ll link to it, with a whole long list of policy ideas that might make things better.

现在，您已经发布了一份文件，我们将链接到该文件，其中包含一长串可能会让事情变得更好的政策想法。

I want to focus on one for a minute that comes to mind as we talk about some of the worst-case scenarios, and that’s maybe of prizes.

当我们谈论一些最坏的情况时，我想花一分钟时间集中讨论一下我想到的一个问题，这可能是奖品。

I know you’re a big fan of prizes.

我知道您非常喜欢奖品。

I’m a big fan of prizes too.

我也非常喜欢奖品。

Let’s put it in this context.

让我们把它放在这个背景下。

I know that the pharmaceutical company Gilead has a drug that’s under possible consideration that might…

我知道吉利德制药公司有一种正在考虑的药物可能......

They’re testing it now to see how it’s going to do.

他们现在正在测试它，看看效果如何。

I think they created it for Ebola, and it seems to have some mitigating effect.

我认为他们是为了埃博拉病毒而创造的，而且似乎有一定的缓解作用。

We’re going to find out.

我们会找出答案。

Let’s say it doesn’t.

假设事实并非如此。

Or no, so let’s say it does.

或者不是，所以我们可以说是这样。

Is Gilead then going to be able to charge whatever they want for that?

那么吉利德可以随意收取费用吗？

Very unlikely.

不太可能。

Right?

正确的？

Right.

正确的。

Especially globally.

尤其是在全球范围内。

Right?

正确的？

Right.

正确的。

I’ve talked endlessly now on EconTalk, I’ve an episode coming up soon on this question of this challenge we have of the semi-free market, this weird market we have in pharmaceuticals that I think is poorly constructed.

我现在在 EconTalk 上没完没了地谈论，很快我就会有一集关于我们面临的半自由市场挑战的问题，这个奇怪的药品市场我认为构建得很糟糕。

The incentives are wrong.

激励措施是错误的。

We’re encouraging innovation that adds a couple of months of life at enormous costs of both research and then Medicare payments.

我们鼓励创新，以巨大的研究成本和医疗保险费用来延长几个月的寿命。

It seems like it’s just a mistake.

看来这只是一个错误。

It’s a bad system.

这是一个糟糕的系统。

At the same time, I don’t want to take the profitability out of the pharmaceutical business, and I want Gilead and other companies to have…

与此同时，我不想剥夺制药业务的盈利能力，我希望吉利德和其他公司……

and Roche and others who develop this new test that’s relatively quick…

罗氏和其他人开发了这种相对较快的新测试……

I want them to have a big incentive to really solve this problem.

我希望他们有很大的动力去真正解决这个问题。

The number on way we do that is to day, “Well, you’re going to be able to charge a lot for it,” and I think that’s not going to happen either culturally or legally for legal or cultural reasons.

今天我们这样做的数字是，“好吧，你将能够为此收取很多费用”，而且我认为由于法律或文化原因，这在文化或法律上都不会发生。

With the externality of infectiousness, you don’t want the price to be high.

由于传染性的外部性，你不希望价格太高。

Right?

正确的？

Correct.

正确的。

Right.

正确的。

Well, you could solve that by letting them charge a high price and the government funding it, but I think the…

好吧，你可以通过让他们收取高价并由政府资助来解决这个问题，但我认为……

Yeah, at the consumer side, the price should be low, and it’s not going to happen.

是的，在消费者方面，价格应该很低，但这是不会发生的。

Right.

正确的。

Not going to happen.

不会发生的。

Buy the patent rights at auction, give them a huge prize, tens of billions of dollars, if they deserve it, I’m all for this.

拍卖专利权，给他们巨额奖金，几百亿美元，如果他们应得的，我都赞成。

Even if you think it has no impact this time, this is not our last pandemic.

即使你认为这次没有影响，但这也不是我们最后一次大流行。

It will matter for the next time around.

这对于下一次来说很重要。

I think those prizes should be large and credibly promised, and I would like to see us get on this.

我认为这些奖励应该是巨大的并且是可信的承诺，我希望看到我们能够做到这一点。

That would seem to me to be, given our earlier conversation about the risk of a permanent disruption of social life because of the recurring challenges that we might be facing, that might be the one thing you’d want us to really kind of focus on, is to get a lot of really smart people trying a lot of different ways to mitigate the medical impact of this.

在我看来，考虑到我们之前讨论过由于我们可能面临的反复挑战而导致社会生活永久中断的风险，这可能是您希望我们真正关注的一件事，那就是让很多真正聪明的人尝试很多不同的方法来减轻这种情况对医疗的影响。

You agree?

你同意吗？

Yes.

是的。

I do think you have to be a little careful in how you structure the prize.

我确实认为你在设计奖项时必须小心一些。

A poorly-specified prize will encourage people to work in small groups and not share information, right?

一个不明确的奖项会鼓励人们以小组形式工作而不是分享信息，对吧？

“I want all the money for myself.” Some amount of discretion is required, and you want to favor, when you hand out the prize, institutions that have been cooperating and sharing information.

“我要把所有的钱都归我自己。”颁发奖项时需要一定程度的自由裁量权，并且您希望支持一直在合作和共享信息的机构。

If you simply set up a very credible board of a half-dozen people with real expertise to decide how to hand out, say, $50 billion, and you make sure there are people willing to write a check, like to a big, unpopular corporation, if that’s who’s done the good work, I think that’s what we should do.

如果你只是设立一个由六名真正专业知识的人组成的非常可靠的董事会来决定如何分配，比如说，500亿美元，并且你确保有人愿意开支票，比如给一家不受欢迎的大公司，如果他们做得很好，我认为这就是我们应该做的。

But simply saying, “Well, there’s going to be a prize for the company that solves this,” you might get a hoarding of information when sharing is appropriate.

但简单地说，“好吧，解决这个问题的公司将会获得奖励”，当适合分享时，你可能会得到大量信息。

Yeah.

是的。

I’m thinking about Jonas Salk, the man who cured polio and, I think, created the polio vaccine.

我想到了乔纳斯·索尔克（Jonas Salk），他治愈了脊髓灰质炎，并且我认为他发明了脊髓灰质炎疫苗。

I have read, I don’t know if it’s true, that he gave it away when he discovered it.

我读到过，我不知道这是否属实，他发现它后就把它送给了别人。

People pointed out that, “Yeah, that was at a time when there wasn’t FDA testing that costs…” People debate what it costs to get a drug approved, whether it’s a mere 500 million, or is it more like 2 billion?

人们指出，“是的，当时 FDA 还没有进行测试，所以成本……”人们争论一种药物获得批准的成本是多少，是仅仅 5 亿美元，还是更像 20 亿美元？

But obviously, we live in a world where it’s very expensive to get a drug approved.

但显然，我们生活在一个药物获得批准的成本非常昂贵的世界。

Is there other things you would do to make a prize more effective?

您还可以做其他事情来使奖励更有效吗？

I guess I was trying to say two things.

我想我想说两件事。

One is that these other pieces of the regulatory puzzle might be part of the challenge.

一是监管难题的其他部分可能是挑战的一部分。

The other is that in the old days, the non-monetary aspects are also pretty important.

另外，在过去，非货币方面也很重要。

Jonas Salk is immortal.

乔纳斯·索尔克是不朽的。

Maybe we should just say, “Whoever comes up with it, we’re going to have a set of baseball playing cards that we give away to every American child to worship this person who was saved their grandparent’s life.” I don’t know.

也许我们应该说，“无论谁想出它，我们都会有一套棒球扑克牌，送给每个美国孩子，以崇拜这个拯救了他们祖父母生命的人。”我不知道。

No, absolutely.

不，绝对是。

I’ve written in the past, “We don’t respect scientists enough,” and that may be hurting us now.

我过去写过，“我们对科学家不够尊重”，这现在可能会伤害我们。

One possible silver lining of this cloud is we will respect scientists a lot more if they come through with some pretty big and significant development.

这一云的一线希望是，如果科学家取得了一些相当大和重大的进展，我们将更加尊重他们。

I think that’s likely at some point, but just to pre-commit as a culture to honoring those people is something we all can do.

我认为这在某些时候是有可能的，但作为一种文化，预先承诺向这些人致敬是我们所有人都可以做的事情。

Well, I was going to ask you if you were, quote, in charge, if you were the coronavirus czar today or President of the United States, besides creating potential a very large prize, the other ideas that are being bandied about are bailouts of various kinds for certain industries that are particularly hard hit by this.

好吧，我想问你，引用，如果你是今天的冠状病毒沙皇或美国总统，除了创造一个非常大的奖项之外，正在传播的其他想法是对某些受此打击特别严重的行业进行各种救助。

One has to be very careful with that word bailout.

人们必须非常小心“救助”这个词。

People mean so many different things by it.

人们用它来表达很多不同的意思。

I don’t think our government should let all of the major corporations fail, which are likely to fail if we do nothing.

我认为我们的政府不应该让所有大公司倒闭，如果我们不采取任何行动，这些大公司很可能会倒闭。

That said, at this point, I remain agnostic as to exactly what we should do.

也就是说，在这一点上，我仍然不知道我们到底应该做什么。

On one hand you don’t want to be in a position of picking winners and losers.

一方面，你不想处于挑选赢家和输家的境地。

But on the other hand, I think one needs to realize maybe cruise ships are not really coming back in a big way and maybe they shouldn’t.

但另一方面，我认为人们需要意识到，也许游轮并没有真正大规模回归，也许他们不应该。

There is something to be said for some sectoral targeting here, but I think the political economy consequences of just letting all of those jobs go away are too dire and we would end up with much more government.

这里有一些部门目标值得一提，但我认为，让所有这些工作岗位消失的政治经济后果太可怕了，我们最终会出现更多的政府。

We’d have like a New Deal Squared and I think some BandAid has to be applied.

我们会有新政平方，我认为必须应用一些创可贴。

Well, I’m not sure what, I’m like you, I want to minimize what we do particularly if it’s likely to be permanent, makes me really uneasy.

好吧，我不知道是什么，我和你一样，我想尽量减少我们所做的事情，特别是如果它可能是永久性的，这让我真的很不安。

We’re at risk that this becomes a watershed moment.

我们面临着这成为分水岭时刻的风险。

I think actually, it’s probably too late.

我想实际上，可能已经太晚了。

Everyone just expects the government to quote, solve this.

大家只是期待政府出面，解决这个问题。

Again, they neglect the things that we’ve done on our own.

他们再次忽视了我们自己所做的事情。

I understand the things that we can’t do on our own to fix macroeconomic cascades.

我理解我们无法靠自己的力量来解决宏观经济连锁反应。

Here’s one of the tricks when it comes to bailouts.

这是救助时的技巧之一。

It’s a common line to say, well we want to keep services up and running, but we don’t want to bailout shareholders.

人们常说，我们希望保持服务正常运行，但我们不想救助股东。

You and I probably share that intuition in a very significant majority of cases.

在绝大多数情况下，你和我可能都有同样的直觉。

But look, think about the airlines.

但是想想航空公司。

Why do you feel safe flying?

为什么您感觉飞行安全？

To a modest degree it’s because of government regulations, but mainly it’s because there’s equity capital in those companies and the shareholders want to keep the flight safe because they don’t want to lose their capital.

在某种程度上，这是因为政府法规，但主要是因为这些公司有股本，股东希望保持航班安全，因为他们不想失去资本。

You mentioned a check to each individual for $1,000.

您提到给每个人一张 1,000 美元的支票。

That is one thing I would do if only to help people pay their rent or stock up on groceries.

如果只是为了帮助人们支付房租或购买杂货，这是我会做的一件事。

I think some of that is just symbolic.

我认为其中一些只是象征性的。

There will be other things we will need to do.

我们还需要做其他事情。

Maybe we’re not sure what, but if you haven’t sent some aid to every American, you will be damned for doing those other things for all eternity and that will be harder next time around.

也许我们不确定具体是什么，但如果你没有向每个美国人提供一些援助，你就会因为永远做这些其他事情而受到诅咒，而下次会更难。

I do think that $1,000 will genuinely help people, but I think it has to be viewed as part of a broader package and that is what makes the entire broader package palatable to most voters.

我确实认为 1,000 美元将真正帮助人们，但我认为它必须被视为更广泛的一揽子计划的一部分，这就是使整个更广泛的一揽子计划能够为大多数选民所接受的原因。

I would do that.

我会那么做。

Well, as I suggested earlier.

嗯，正如我之前建议的那样。

I think it’s palliative more than stimulative.

我认为这更多是起到缓解作用，而不是起到刺激作用。

I mean I think it’s…

我的意思是我认为这是……

It’s defensive I would say.

我想说这是防御性的。

It’s not really going to stimulate-

这并不会真正刺激——

It can reduce hardship.

它可以减少困难。

If you want to have forbearance on rents, some amount of forbearance on debt, forbearance on enforcing bank capital standards.

如果你想减免租金、减免一定程度的债务、减免执行银行资本标准。

These are all risky things, but ultimately you need to recapitalize the economy.

这些都是有风险的事情，但最终你需要对经济进行资本重组。

The traditional recipe of let all the equity be destroyed can slow down the rate at which you recapitalize, given that once the virus is more or less taken care of, the equity values of many things will bounce back.

鉴于一旦病毒或多或少得到控制，许多东西的股权价值都会反弹，因此销毁所有股权的传统方法可能会减慢资本重组的速度。

So just how much we want equity to take a hit.

所以我们多么希望股市受到打击。

What we have in mind is a recapitalization process.

我们想到的是资本重组过程。

To me that’s like the big question about the bailouts not really very well answered as of yet.

对我来说，这就像关于救助的大问题，目前还没有得到很好的回答。

I don’t see that capitalization issue is an equity issue the way you do.

我不认为资本化问题是像你那样的股权问题。

I don’t think American airlines, United Airlines, Delta, et cetera want to take risks with their customers going forward because most of their equity isn’t crashing that plane.

我不认为美国航空公司、联合航空公司、达美航空公司等愿意与他们的客户一起承担未来的风险，因为他们的大部分资产不会让那架飞机坠毁。

It’s their brand name, which can be destroyed.

这是他们的品牌名称，可以被摧毁。

Well then the share value would be high.

那么股票价值就会很高。

But if we really let the equity value be wiped out by this recession or depression, it would be very easy for the share values of United, Delta and American to go to a dollar a share.

但如果我们真的让股票价值因这次衰退或萧条而消失，那么联合航空、达美航空和美国航空的股票价值将很容易跌至每股一美元。

Even that would be kind of an option on the bailout.

即使这也是救助的一种选择。

Right?

对吗？

There’s a lot of corporate debt in America right now.

美国现在有很多企业债务。

Corporate debt levels were pretty high.

企业债务水平相当高。

It worked fine under the previous level of economic activity where people actually went outdoors.

在人们实际户外活动的先前经济活动水平下，它运作良好。

I was not panicked over that.

我对此并不惊慌。

Oh, that’s for sure.

哦，那是肯定的。

I think the biggest problem that pundits, and I’ll put myself in that class on this level of conversation, I mean we just use words like bailout as if we know what we’re talking about or if it’s well specified.

我认为专家们最大的问题是，我会把自己放在这个级别的对话中，我的意思是我们只是使用“救助”这样的词，就好像我们知道我们在谈论什么，或者它是明确指定的一样。

As you’re pointing out, it’s not well specified.

正如您所指出的，它没有得到很好的指定。

What that means in practice, what strings are going to be attached to it.

这在实践中意味着什么，将附加什么条件。

I think there will be strings attached this time that weren’t attached in 2008 which probably is, it might be a good thing.

我认为这次会有一些 2008 年没有的附加条件，这可能是一件好事。

I think it was some of those things were not good in 2008 and I think it discouraged people’s faith in democracy and capitalism, which has been I guess part of our problem going forward.

我认为 2008 年的一些事情并不好，我认为这打击了人们对民主和资本主义的信心，我想这也是我们未来问题的一部分。

But a lot of this, it’s hard to imagine.

但其中很多，很难想象。

Let’s turn it, we’ve got about 20 minutes left.

算了，我们还剩20分钟左右。

Yes.

是的。

Then culturally, where people like you and I who wish it were going, at least in some sense in the other direction are going to be increasingly irrelevant.

然后在文化上，像你我这样希望它发展的人，至少在某种意义上朝另一个方向发展，将变得越来越无关紧要。

The second question would be what kind of cultural changes do you think this will lead to in the short run version versus the longer version?

第二个问题是，您认为这会在短期版本与长期版本中导致什么样的文化变化？

The shorter run version, we get some palliative effective of say medicine and treatment and vaccine and this becomes a moment that we talk about with laughter that for many of us that’s the time we had to stay inside.

在短期版本中，我们得到了一些姑息治疗的效果，比如药物、治疗和疫苗，这成为我们笑着谈论的时刻，对我们许多人来说，这是我们必须待在室内的时间。

I think schools-

我认为学校——

Facing any of them.

面对他们中的任何一个。

Yes.

是的。

I’ll give you my take then you can give me yours.

我会给你我的看法，然后你也可以给我你的。

I think some schools will do online education well for a subset of classes and we’ll end up in a world where 20% of what is now done face to face will be done online and that will be cheaper and better.

我认为一些学校会很好地为一部分课程提供在线教育，我们最终将迎来这样一个世界：现在面对面教学的 20% 将在网上完成，而且会更便宜、更好。

I fully get, you cannot do a face to face discussion humanities class that way, but I think we’ll see much more online education.

我完全明白，你不能以这种方式进行面对面的人文讨论课，但我认为我们会看到更多的在线教育。

We will see permanently fewer meetings, Zoom and Skype and how to use them.

我们将看到永久减少的会议、Zoom 和 Skype 以及如何使用它们。

What does that, when you say the progressive left, what do you mean?

当你说进步左派时，你是什么意思？

Who are those people?

那些人是谁？

What viewpoint are you talking about and why is it dying out?

您在谈论什么观点？为什么它正在消失？

People who support Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, which is a pretty significant chunk of this country’s intellectuals.

支持伯尼·桑德斯和伊丽莎白·沃伦的人，是这个国家知识分子中相当重要的一部分。

Arguing for that kind of redistribution or splitting up big tech or whatever it’s going to be, that is a kind of luxury made possible by people living on the coast in comfortable circumstances who are well educated.

主张这种重新分配或拆分大型科技公司或其他任何事情，这是一种奢侈，是生活在舒适环境中、受过良好教育的沿海地区的人们所实现的。

But when those people themselves feel threatened and America’s middle-class feels threatened, whether correctly they feel that way or it’s a kind of paranoid overreaction, but I do think that is coming and already here.

但是，当这些人自己感到受到威胁，而美国的中产阶级也感到受到威胁时，无论他们的这种感觉是否正确，还是一种偏执的过度反应，但我确实认为这种情况即将到来，而且已经发生了。

You don’t think he’s going to be a lot more eager to …

你不认为他会更渴望……

Tell me…

告诉我……

you just said we should give everybody $1,000.

你刚才说我们应该给每个人 1,000 美元。

We will have much more government intervention.

我们将有更多的政府干预。

It will be with right-wing toppings and flavor.

它将带有右翼配料和风味。

I’m not saying this is a good thing.

我并不是说这是一件好事。

There will be much more intervention in the healthcare system, but it will be a kind of triage and treating healthcare as scarce.

医疗保健系统将会有更多的干预，但这将是一种分类，并将医疗保健视为稀缺。

Not giving it away to everyone for free and it will be brutal and we’ll feel bad about it and it will make the debates again more right-wing.

如果不把它免费提供给每个人，这将是残酷的，我们会对此感到难过，这将使辩论再次变得更加右翼。

I don’t mean more libertarian.

我并不是说更加自由主义。

I don’t mean more liberty-oriented.

我并不是说更加注重自由。

I mean right-wing in a very particular direction, but those are my takes.

我指的是一个非常特定方向的右翼，但这些是我的看法。

You give me yours.

你把你的给我。

Well I don’t see that, but I want you to keep going.

好吧，我不明白，但我希望你继续前进。

Let’s talk about the cultural changes.

我们来谈谈文化变迁。

I’m going to go a different direction I think.

我想我会走向不同的方向。

I think people have a great thirst for face to face and I don’t think Zoom is, I love Zoom.

我认为人们非常渴望面对面交流，但我不认为 Zoom 是这样，我喜欢 Zoom。

I love Skype.

我喜欢 Skype。

Big fan of them, love the internet, loved talking to tens of thousands of people through my EconTalk once a week.

他们的忠实粉丝，热爱互联网，喜欢每周通过我的 EconTalk 与成千上万的人交谈。

Think how much more productive this is.

想想这会提高多少生产力。

Right?

正确的？

Much bigger viewership than our coffee klatch.

收视率比我们的咖啡聚会要高得多。

But you’re the guy who taught me, that’s true.

但你是教我的人，这是事实。

But you’re the guy that taught me that I thought you were going to say it’s more productive because I don’t have to go to the coffee shop.

但你是那个告诉我的人，我以为你会说这样更有效率，因为我不必去咖啡店。

But I think we underestimate, I think I learned this from you that the value of those kinds of time spent-

但我认为我们低估了，我想我从你那里学到了这些时间的价值——

Oh, sure, the process.

哦，当然，过程。

Yeah.

是的。

Just doing nothing is very valuable.

仅仅什么都不做是非常有价值的。

If we underestimate what it allows us to do, but all I’m saying is that I think people like to hug and that’s not going to change.

如果我们低估了它允许我们做的事情，但我想说的是，我认为人们喜欢拥抱，这一点不会改变。

They like to shake hands.

他们喜欢握手。

If anything, I think we’ve become more physical.

如果说有什么不同的话，我认为我们变得更加身体力行了。

We’ve become more European.

我们变得更加欧洲化了。

I think there’ll be a huge wave of promiscuous sex once there’s the first break in the virus for instance.

例如，我认为一旦病毒第一次爆发，​​就会出现一波乱性行为的巨大浪潮。

There goes my G rating on EconTalk.

这就是我在 EconTalk 上的 G 评级。

I’m sorry.

对不起。

That’s okay.

没关系。

I think there’s a pendulum here of people who will react to this.

我认为人们对此会做出反应。

When I say this, I mean the digitalization, the virtualization of daily life.

当我说这个时，我指的是日常生活的数字化、虚拟化。

People don’t like it.

人们不喜欢它。

I mean, we like a lot of it.

我的意思是，我们非常喜欢它。

I love a lot of it.

我非常喜欢它。

I know you do too, but for a lot of people, I think there’s going to be a pushback.

我知道你也这么认为，但对于很多人来说，我认为这会遇到阻力。

I see it among young people already, in my kids and their friends.

我已经在年轻人、我的孩子和他们的朋友身上看到了这一点。

They have problems dealing with the obsessiveness and addictiveness of online life, but they’re also eager to stay away from it if they can.

他们在应对网络生活的痴迷和上瘾方面遇到了问题，但如果可以的话，他们也渴望远离它。

I just think a lot of that’s going to happen with this as well.

我只是认为很多事情也会随之发生。

Here’s what I’m trying to say.

这就是我想说的。

I don’t think that extra months of self isolation is going to change our habits.

我不认为额外几个月的自我隔离会改变我们的习惯。

It’s not going to change our nature…

它不会改变我们的本性......

The revenue constraint will change us.

收入限制将改变我们。

Right.

正确的。

So, say you’re running a university and your revenue is down 15% and you have a chance to buy a class online or try to create your own class, which are you going to do?

那么，假设您正在经营一所大学，并且您的收入下降了 15%，并且您有机会在线购买课程或尝试创建自己的课程，您会做什么？

That’s what I think will drive it is revenue constraints.

我认为推动这一趋势的是收入限制。

Well, I think six years ago, maybe whenever it was, when the early MOOCs were coming out, online classes, I was all excited that there’d be a revolution.

嗯，我想六年前，也许无论什么时候，当早期的 MOOC 在线课程出现时，我都很兴奋，因为将会发生一场革命。

That hasn’t happened.

但那并没有发生。

Now this is going to give it another chance.

现在这将再给它一次机会。

Maybe it’ll spur it along.

也许它会刺激它前进。

I think it’s equally likely they’ll say, “That was incredibly ineffective.

我认为他们同样可能会说：“这非常无效。

We’ve got to go back to face to face.” I don’t know.

我们必须回去面对面。”我不知道。

I’m very agnostic on this.

我对此非常不可知。

I think we’ll see a kind of polarization.

我认为我们会看到一种两极分化。

Things will be either very face to face and very exciting and very extreme or things will be very online.

事情要么非常面对面、非常令人兴奋、非常极端，要么事情将非常在线。

The kind of average degree of online-ness may not change, but you’ll demand more from your face to face encounters and I won’t use my previous point again.

这种平均在线度可能不会改变，但你会对面对面的接触提出更高的要求，我不会再用我之前的观点了。

Then you’ll be doing more on Zoom and Skype and other services.

然后您将在 Zoom 和 Skype 以及其他服务上做更多的事情。

I think we’ll compensate for that by having our face to face be all the more huggy or whatever you think it might be.

我想我们可以通过面对面更加拥抱或者任何你认为可能的方式来弥补这一点。

Well, I liked the idea that that norms are evolving now that will encourage face to face to be higher quality.

嗯，我喜欢这样的想法：现在规范正在不断发展，这将鼓励面对面的交流提高质量。

I do think the idea that in the middle of a conversation you can look at your phone or glance at your …

我确实认为在谈话过程中你可以看一下手机或扫一眼你的……

increasingly going to be seen as unattractive.

越来越被视为没有吸引力。

The etiquette of that’s going to evolve, but I don’t know how it’ll be.

礼节将会演变，但我不知道会怎样。

But I think increasingly people will put away their phones because they don’t want to be connected 24/7.

但我认为越来越多的人会收起手机，因为他们不想 24/7 保持联系。

But we’ll see.

但我们会看到。

It’s a bit of romance maybe on my part that when we are face to face, we’re going to do it with more focus, intention, presence.

也许对我来说有点浪漫，当我们面对面时，我们会更加专注、意图和存在。

So nice idea.

好主意。

I like this.

我喜欢这个。

I agree completely.

我完全同意。

This might be true, might be true, right?

这也许是真的，也许是真的，对吗？

It’s hard.

这很难。

It’s not really the way we’re hardwired.

这并不是我们与生俱来的方式。

To suggest that we can interact with each other without distraction is a beautiful idea.

建议我们可以心无旁骛地彼此互动，这是一个美好的主意。

But in a way, all that the digital revolution has done is to make it more obvious how hard that is for us.

但在某种程度上，数字革命所做的一切只是让我们更加清楚这对我们来说有多么困难。

Yes.

是的。

It’s not simply that here’s new things to distract us.

这不仅仅是因为这里有新事物来分散我们的注意力。

It’s that we were already very distractable.

那是我们已经很分心了。

Now we’re more aware of how distractable we are.

现在我们更加意识到我们是多么容易分心。

Maybe that’ll help us.

也许这会对我们有帮助。

I’m running my own prizes through Emergent Ventures.

我通过 Emergent Ventures 管理自己的奖项。

Oh yeah, talk about that.

哦，是的，谈谈这个。

The money I’ve raised, it is now at about $1.4 million with some other pledges on the way and other interest expressed.

我筹集到的资金目前约为 140 万美元，其他一些承诺正在进行中，并表达了其他兴趣。

I’m not sure-

我不确定-

Describe it, describe what it is for people who don’t know.

描述一下，为不知道的人描述一下它是什么。

People who do meritorious things to contribute to the end of corona virus problems, whether it be coming up with a cure or online blogging or creating a website that tracks information, something that is otherwise under rewarded.

那些为解决冠状病毒问题做出贡献的人，无论是想出治疗方法、在线博客还是创建跟踪信息的网站，否则这些事情都不会得到回报。

This is not a prize that will go to Gilead.

这不是吉利德的奖品。

This sum of money is not big enough to change their incentives.

这笔钱还不足以改变他们的动机。

But for individuals who have done important things, they will receive this as an additional reward…

但对于做了重要事情的人来说，他们会得到这个作为额外的奖励……

Like a live YouTube?

喜欢 YouTube 直播吗？

A live streaming YouTube with a really important thinker about where we’re headed?

一个关于我们前进方向的真正重要思想家的 YouTube 直播？

Is that-

难道是——

Exactly.

正是如此。

Whatever is effective.

凡是有效的都行。

These are not yet publicly announced, but as of now there were four prizes awarded already and I’m very proud of them.

这些奖项尚未公开宣布，但到目前为止已经颁发了四个奖项，我为他们感到非常自豪。

I hope by Friday the information will be out and these are people who have done amazing things and I’m pretty sure they haven’t been paid a dime for it.

我希望到周五信息就会公布，这些人做了令人惊奇的事情，我很确定他们没有为此得到一毛钱。

And I-

而我——

Can you give one example?

你能举一个例子吗？

Is this public?

这是公开的吗？

Not public yet, so some of these you’ve you’ve heard of probably, but in any case I think the prizes will encourage more people and just generate attention for those who have done the right thing I think encourage them to do more because this is a marathon, not a sprint, and the people who have already done wonderful things or maybe some of the people more likely to continue doing wonderful things.

还没有公开，所以你可能听说过其中一些，但无论如何，我认为这些奖项会鼓励更多的人，并只会引起人们对那些做了正确事情的人的关注，我认为鼓励他们做得更多，因为这是一场马拉松，而不是短跑，以及那些已经做了很棒的事情的人，或者可能是一些更有可能继续做很棒的事情的人。

Let’s finish with what advice you give people both personally and ethically for going forward.

最后，让我们谈谈您在个人和道德上为人们的前进提供了哪些建议。

We talked a little bit at the beginning about niche behavior, trying to get better at things or talk about what information people might access, where you encourage people to go or what you encourage people to do to deal with this going forward?

我们一开始就讨论了利基行为，试图在事情上做得更好，或者讨论人们可能会访问哪些信息，你鼓励人们去哪里，或者你鼓励人们做什么来处理未来的问题？

Well, on my own blog, Marginal Revolution, I’m trying to collect the information that I consider to be either reliable or at least interesting or worth reading or thinking about.

嗯，在我自己的博客“边际革命”上，我试图收集我认为可靠或至少有趣或值得阅读或思考的信息。

Whatever I know I’m putting up there and the volume of blog posting is much higher.

无论我知道什么，我都会放在那里，而且博客发布的数量要高得多。

Sort of by definition, that’s what I think is important.

根据定义，这就是我认为重要的。

Well, I’ve been thinking a lot about the so-called death of expertise.

嗯，我一直在思考所谓的专业知识之死。

I was really going to ask you about that.

我真的很想问你这个问题。

Whether you know a lot of people who’ve been crowing this week about how, see you do need these experts.

无论您是否认识本周一直在大喊大叫的人，您都知道您确实需要这些专家。

Obviously epidemiology and understanding the science of this is incredibly valuable and important.

显然，流行病学和理解这方面的科学是非常有价值和重要的。

I’m a big fan of science and not such a big fan of experts.

我是科学的忠实粉丝，但不太热衷于专家。

That would include you and me, Tyler.

这包括你和我，泰勒。

I do think the internet has helped influential people influence people’s behavior to be more worried about this, which I think is probably going to be a lifesaver for, I think, hundreds and hundreds of thousands of people.

我确实认为互联网帮助有影响力的人影响人们的行为，让他们更加担心这一点，我认为这可能会成为成千上万人的救星。

I think that’s been a very, very good thing.

我认为这是一件非常非常好的事情。

I don’t know what’s going to happen if the death toll is enormously high or enormously low.

我不知道如果死亡人数非常高或非常低会发生什么。

I agree.

我同意。

We’re not so focused on that because you can’t measure it.

我们不太关注这一点，因为你无法衡量它。

I think the internet and the scientific community will both come out of this looking very, very good political leaders, not so much, and I’m fine with saying, go to the experts, but who are the experts?

我认为互联网和科学界都会出现看起来非常非常好的政治领导人，但不是那么多，我可以说，去找专家，但专家是谁？

It’s a bit tautological.

这有点同义反复。

Should you just turn on the evening news and listen to your president and prime minister and say, “Oh, they’re channeling and the experts.” On that, I don’t know with the records not being so great so far.

你是否应该打开晚间新闻，听你的总统和总理说：“哦，他们正在通灵，还有专家。”对此，我不知道，到目前为止记录还不是很好。

The true experts, of course, by definition, those are the people you should listen to, but this is an unprecedented event and who the true experts turn out to be is still a bit up for grabs, I would say.

当然，根据定义，真正的专家是你应该听取的人，但这是一个史无前例的事件，我想说，真正的专家是谁仍然有点悬而未决。

My guest today, to the extent he’s been a guest, has been Tyler Cowen.

今天我的客人，就他一直是客人而言，是泰勒·考恩。

Tyler, always great to talk to you.

泰勒，很高兴与你交谈。

My guest today, to the extent he’s been a guest is Russ Roberts.

今天我的客人，就他一直是客人而言，是拉斯·罗伯茨。

Russ, always great to talk to you again, my condolences with your family.

拉斯，很高兴再次与你交谈，我对你的家人表示哀悼。

Thank you.

谢谢。

We should stay in close touch and wishing you the very, very best and you take care as well.

我们应该保持密切联系，祝你一切顺利，也请保重。

Thank you, Tyler.

谢谢你，泰勒。

Thank you, Russ.

谢谢你，拉斯。