Ray Dalio on Investing, Management, and the Changing World Order (Ep. 138)
Today I am here with Ray Dalio, who needs no introduction.
今天我和雷·达里奥一起来，无需介绍。
Most notably, Ray has a new book out, Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail.
最值得注意的是，雷出版了一本新书，《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则：国家为何成功和失败》。
Ray, welcome.
雷，欢迎。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Thank you for having me.
谢谢你有我。
The very first sentence of the introduction in your book is this: “The times ahead will be radically different from those we’ve experienced in our lifetimes, though similar to many times in history.” Do we see this today in current market prices?
您书中引言的第一句话是这样的：“未来的时代将与我们一生中经历的时代截然不同，尽管与历史上的许多时代相似。”我们今天在当前的市场价格中看到了这一点吗？
And if so, which ones?
如果是的话，是哪些？
We certainly see it today in market prices and in everything that’s happening.
我们今天确实在市场价格和正在发生的一切事情中看到了这一点。
There are three — sometimes, maybe we could stretch that to five — big things that are happening.
有三件——有时候，也许我们可以把它扩展到五件——正在发生的大事。
They are reflected in market prices and the dynamics behind them, and their change will be reflected in changes in market prices.
它们反映在市场价格及其背后的动态中，它们的变化也会反映在市场价格的变化中。
Those three big ones are, first, that which is happening with money and credit.
这三大事件首先是货币和信贷方面发生的事情。
In other words, when you get close to a zero interest rate, and you spend a lot more money than you earn, then the government does that, that means that a lot of money is printed, and it moves its way through the system in a way that is reflected in market prices.
换句话说，当你的利率接近于零，并且你花的钱比你赚的多得多时，政府就会这么做，这意味着大量的钱被印出来，并以市场价格反映的方式通过系统流动。
That is what is happening now.
这就是现在正在发生的事情。
The second is the very large internal conflicts that we’re having that are due to wealth gaps, political gaps, and so on, that influence the left and the right and the dynamic between them, that affects tax policies, that affects capital flows and the like.
第二个是我们面临的非常大的内部冲突，这是由于贫富差距、政治差距等造成的，影响左派和右派以及他们之间的动态，影响税收政策，影响资本流动等等。
They’re reflected in market prices and will change as those circumstances change.
它们反映在市场价格中，并且会随着情况的变化而变化。
The third big influence is the rise of a great power, China, to challenge the existing leading power and the existing world order.
第三大影响是中国的崛起，挑战现有的主导力量和现有的世界秩序。
That is being reflected in market prices but will be reflected more as those circumstances change.
这已反映在市场价格中，但随着情况的变化，这种情况将会得到更多反映。
Those are the three big influences — to answer your questions — that are reflected, maybe not yet adequately, and we have to look ahead of what things will change.
这些是三大影响 —— 回答你的问题 —— 已经得到反映，但可能还没有充分反映，我们必须预见到事情将会发生什么变化。
The other two that have been reflected through history — and I didn’t have a full appreciation of until I studied the last 500 years of history — those two are technology and inventiveness changes.
另外两个已经在历史中反映出来了——直到我研究了过去 500 年的历史之后我才完全理解——这两个是技术和创造力的变化。
We’re accelerating the rate at which they are occurring.
我们正在加快它们发生的速度。
That adaptability and change is affecting our lives in big ways, so you cannot ignore the technologically and inventiveness changes.
这种适应性和变化正在很大程度上影响我们的生活，所以你不能忽视技术和创造力的变化。
The fifth is acts of nature.
第五是自然行为。
The one thing that was interesting to me when I studied the last 500 years of history is that acts of nature — and they could be climate-related droughts and floods and pandemics — had cost more lives and toppled more civilizations than anything else, including wars.
当我研究过去 500 年的历史时，令我感兴趣的一件事是，自然灾害——可能是与气候有关的干旱、洪水和流行病——比其他任何事情（包括战争）造成了更多的生命和摧毁了更多的文明。
They are something that comes along irregularly.
它们是不规则出现的东西。
When you have the pandemic or the drought or that event that comes along once in 100 years or so, they have had big effects, too, so pandemic is a reminder of those.
当发生大流行病、干旱或大约 100 年一次的事件时，它们也会产生很大的影响，所以大流行病提醒人们这些。
Those are the drivers, and they will remain the main drivers, and as they change, prices will continue to change.
这些是驱动因素，而且它们仍将是主要驱动因素，随着它们的变化，价格将继续变化。
On market prices
市场价格
If I look today, say, at equities prices, they seem fine.
如果我今天看看股票价格，它们看起来不错。
If I look at the 10-year yield for the US, it’s not crazy high.
如果我看一下美国 10 年期国债收益率，就会发现它并没有高得离谱。
Should I just assume that these matters are more or less going to work out fine, given those market prices?
考虑到市场价格，我是否应该假设这些事情或多或少会顺利进行？
Or are those prices wrong?
或者这些价格有误吗？
No. I think you have to look at the dynamic behind those prices.
不，我认为你必须看看这些价格背后的动态。
I think I would look at them a bit differently.
我想我会对他们有一点不同的看法。
Regarding the dynamic behind those prices, it is that we are spending more than we are earning by a lot — individuals and the country as a whole.
就这些价格背后的动力而言，我们的支出远远超过了收入——个人和整个国家。
We need money, partially because of the political issues, partially for all the reasons that you know.
我们需要钱，部分是因为政治问题，部分是因为你知道的所有原因。
A lot of debt is being created that is also producing the need for a lot of money.
大量债务的产生也产生了对大量资金的需求。
As a result of that, we have very negative real interest rates.
结果，我们的实际利率非常负。
Real interest rates of short-term interest rates are significantly negative.
短期利率实际利率显着为负。
Even bond yields — real bond yields — are over 100 basis points negative.
甚至债券收益率 — 实际债券收益率 — 也超过100个基点为负。
When one looks at the return of owning those bonds, that is a very bad return.
当人们考虑拥有这些债券的回报时，会发现这是一个非常糟糕的回报。
It means that if you save in those assets and you put it away, that you will lose buying power, at probably a rate of 3 percent to 5 percent per year.
这意味着，如果您存入这些资产并将其存放起来，您将失去购买力，每年的速度可能为 3% 至 5%。
We can guess what inflation is, and we can talk about that.
我们可以猜测什么是通货膨胀，我们可以谈论它。
But you will lose that, and that tax on your buying power makes one not want to be saving in those assets.
但你会失去它，而对你的购买力征税会让人们不想储蓄这些资产。
It makes one want to borrow in those assets.
它使人想要借用这些资产。
The availability of credit and that set of circumstances drives money into other assets.
信贷的可用性和一系列环境推动资金流入其他资产。
Those assets are investment assets, as well as goods and services.
这些资产是投资资产以及商品和服务。
What we see now is that stocks are not expensive — not very expensive, maybe a little bit more so than normal — relative to bonds, which are very expensive, but still not expensive in relation to cash.
我们现在看到的是，股票并不贵——“不是很贵，可能比平时贵一点——”相对于债券来说，债券非常昂贵，但相对于现金来说仍然不贵。
They are all having expected returns that are comparatively low, and we have an inflationary period.
他们的预期回报率都相对较低，而我们正处于通货膨胀时期。
It’s very important to understand the paradigm that we’re in and how that dynamic works.
了解我们所处的范式以及这种动态如何运作非常重要。
As the inflation pressures become an issue and we have relatively, let’s say, stronger growth, those things will start to change.
随着通胀压力成为一个问题，并且我们的增长相对强劲，比如说，这些事情将开始发生变化。
The big question that the markets look at is, how will that change as a result?
市场关注的一个大问题是，结果将如何变化？
And will the Federal Reserve and other central banks begin to tighten monetary policy?
美联储和其他央行是否会开始收紧货币政策？
Because these things will change.
因为这些事情都会改变。
What will tax policies be and the like?
税收政策是什么？
Those things will affect market prices going forward.
这些事情将影响未来的市场价格。
It’s unsustainable.
这是不可持续的。
Help me put this in the context of finance theory.
帮我把这个放在金融理论的背景下。
If I look at the literature on finance, it’s very hard to predict excess returns.
如果我查看金融文献，就会发现很难预测超额收益。
We’re not even sure beta predicts excess returns.
我们甚至不确定贝塔值是否能预测超额回报。
Firm size, maybe a little.
坚固的尺寸，也许有一点。
Price to book value, maybe a little.
价格与账面价值之比，也许有点。
Are you suggesting that the factors you’re citing predict excess returns?
您是否认为您引用的因素可以预测超额回报？
If so, why don’t we find that in the research literature?
如果是这样，为什么我们在研究文献中找不到呢？
If not, why do we think they have predictive power?
如果不是，为什么我们认为它们具有预测能力？
Do they predict excess returns?
他们预测超额回报吗？
Polarization, credit, rise of China — they don’t seem to, in finance papers.
两极分化、信用、中国崛起——在财经报纸上，这些似乎都没有。
There are so many people who write finance papers, and then there are people who make money in the markets.
有很多人写金融论文，也有很多人在市场上赚钱。
I can’t speak for those who are writing the finance papers, but I can answer your question in terms of the predictive value of those things, okay?
我不能代表那些正在撰写金融论文的人说话，但我可以根据这些东西的预测价值来回答你的问题，好吗？
As we deal with the mechanics of debt, or excess returns, there’s always, throughout history, a debtor and a creditor.
当我们处理债务或超额回报的机制时，纵观历史，总是存在债务人和债权人。
There’s always, throughout history, the ability to create demand by creating debt and by creating money.
纵观历史，总是有能力通过创造债务和创造货币来创造需求。
Then there become clear preferences for doing one or the other.
然后，对于其中一项或另一项的偏好就会变得清晰。
There are environments like the late 1970s, when Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker tightened money and wanted to make it good to save and bad to borrow and have credit.
有些环境就像 20 世纪 70 年代末，当时美联储主席保罗·沃尔克 (Paul Volcker) 收紧了货币政策，希望有利于储蓄，而有利于借贷和信贷。
That set of circumstances was caused, and that action was caused, by things that happened before it.
那一系列的情况是由之前发生的事情造成的，而那个行动是由之前发生的事情造成的。
That produced high real interest rates and the like, and that produced the environment that we had, largely, the disinflationary environment that followed.
这产生了高实际利率等，并产生了我们所拥有的环境，很大程度上是随之而来的通货紧缩环境。
Similarly, the 1960s led to the 1970s.
同样，20 世纪 60 年代导致了 1970 年代。
The ’60s had too much debt creation due to war in Vietnam and what we call guns and butter policies.
20 世纪 60 年代，由于越南战争和我们所谓的“大炮和黄油”政策，造成了太多债务。
We were spending more than we were earning.
我们花的钱比赚的多。
That led to the necessity, in 1971, for the Federal Reserve, for the president of the United States to acknowledge that they would no longer be able to pay the dollar claims in gold and to default on the gold claim and to devalue the exchange rate and to devalue the dollar, which led to the 1970s inflation, and so on.
这导致 1971 年，美联储和美国总统必须承认他们将不再能够以黄金支付美元债权，并对黄金债权违约，并使汇率贬值和美元贬值，从而导致 20 世纪 70 年代的通货膨胀，等等。
There were always, all through history, the dynamic in which there are high real interest rates, and it pays to be a saver for some times.
纵观历史，实际利率一直处于高位，有时储蓄是值得的。
There are times when there are very, very low real interest rates, and the need to create a lot of money and credit, and it pays to have the opposite side of assets positioned in the opposite way.
有时，实际利率非常非常低，需要创造大量货币和信贷，而以相反的方式配置资产的另一面是值得的。
And that’s been true throughout history, and that’s the main driver.
纵观历史，这都是事实，也是主要驱动力。
I think, when we look forward, we can use those as guides to what’s likely to happen in the way of excess return.
我认为，当我们展望未来时，我们可以用这些作为超额回报可能发生的情况的指南。
It’s, in fact, the way the system works.
事实上，这就是系统的工作方式。
In other words, investors, borrowers, and lenders look at the relative expected returns of cash, bonds, and other asset classes, and move their money between those things based on the relative pricing.
换句话说，投资者、借款人和贷款人都会关注现金、债券和其他资产类别的相对预期回报，并根据相对定价在这些资产之间转移资金。
That’s why, for example, when there is a rise in interest rates, a tightening of monetary policy, and short-term interest rates rise relative to short longer-term interest rates — so the yield curve begins to flatten, and so on — that we see that there’s a slowing in the economy and a slowing in capital availability lending — long-term lending.
这就是为什么，例如，当利率上升、货币政策收紧、短期利率相对于短期长期利率上升时 ——因此收益率曲线开始变平，等等—— 我们看到经济放缓，资本可用贷款放缓 ——长期贷款放缓。
There’s a shift to saving, and as a result, there’s a slowing of the economy.
人们转向储蓄，结果导致经济放缓。
That’s, to me, how the system works.
对我来说，这就是系统的运作方式。
If I look at the macroeconomic literature, it seems to me, even GDP — when we run statistical tests, it’s hard to distinguish that from a random walk with trend.
如果我看一下宏观经济文献，在我看来，即使是 GDP ——当我们进行统计测试时，也很难将其与趋势随机游走区分开来。
There’s not a lot of obvious mean reversion in the system.
系统中没有太多明显的均值回归。
I think we’re referring to different things.
我认为我们指的是不同的事物。
You’re referring to what you’re reading in the literature, and I’m referring to my 50 years of experience and what I’m doing, so we have a different perspective about those things.
你指的是你在文献中读到的内容，我指的是我 50 年的经验和我正在做的事情，所以我们对这些事情有不同的看法。
Tell me what’s wrong with the literature.
告诉我文学有什么问题。
Those are actual numbers taken from government databases.
这些是从政府数据库中获取的实际数字。
You run statistics on them — returns are close to a random walk.
你对它们进行统计 — 回报接近随机游走。
GDP is close to a random walk with trend.
GDP 接近随趋势随机游走。
It’s not random at all.
这根本不是随机的。
In other words, do you think where interest rates are is random?
换句话说，你认为利率是随机的吗？
Do you think it’s random?
你认为这是随机的吗？
Do you think that if these things change .
您认为如果这些事情发生变化吗？
.
。
.
。
let’s take that example.
让我们以这个例子为例。
Do you think that it would be random that the Federal Reserve would tighten monetary policy?
您认为美联储收紧货币政策是随机的吗？
Do you think it’s random that we’re having inflation pressures?
您认为我们面临的通胀压力是随机的吗？
Do you think it’s random?
你认为这是随机的吗？
Do you think those things are random?
你认为这些事情是随机的吗？
I think the market has a model of what will happen.
我认为市场对将会发生的事情有一个模型。
It’s hard to beat that model.
很难击败该模型。
But look at it this way: the factors you’re citing to me — they’re publicly available information.
但这样看：你向我引用的因素 —— 它们是公开信息。
We’re talking about them on a podcast.
我们正在播客上谈论它们。
Why shouldn’t they already be in market prices?
为什么它们不应该已经在市场价格中？
The market is like a poker game.
市场就像一场扑克游戏。
I’ve played the poker game for over 50 years.
我玩扑克游戏已有 50 多年了。
I’m saying it’s a zero-sum game relative to what’s priced in, and the smart people take money away from those who are less smart.
我的意思是，相对于定价而言，这是一场零和游戏，聪明的人从不那么聪明的人那里拿走了钱。
That’s the way it works.
这就是它的工作原理。
I wouldn’t be in the business — I wouldn’t be on your podcast, I presume — unless that was true.
我不会从事这个行业 — 我想我不会出现在你的播客上 — 除非那是真的。
Well, it’s one thing to think some people are smarter than others, but if they’re smarter than others with respect to the ability to just spot publicly available information, it seems that’s easy to copy.
好吧，认为有些人比其他人更聪明是一回事，但如果他们在发现公开信息的能力方面比其他人更聪明，那么似乎很容易复制。
We should then be able to go back in history, look at those same pieces of information and use them to predict expected returns, but we can’t do that.
然后我们应该能够回顾历史，查看相同的信息并使用它们来预测预期回报，但我们不能这样做。
Some can and some can’t.
有些可以，有些不能。
I guess you look at the track records over long periods of time, and you decide who can and who can’t.
我猜你会查看很长一段时间的记录，然后决定谁可以、谁不能。
On reserve currencies
关于储备货币
Let me ask you a few questions about reserve currencies, which is a key theme in your book.
让我问你几个关于储备货币的问题，这是你书中的一个关键主题。
If deindustrialization is a real problem, including for national security, isn’t having a reserve currency actually a disadvantage?
如果去工业化是一个真正的问题，包括国家安全问题，那么拥有储备货币实际上不是一个劣势吗？
I’m sorry.
对不起。
I didn’t understand your question.
我不明白你的问题。
Deindustrialization is important —
去工业化很重要 —
To the United States.
到美国。
You stated a premise that I didn’t hear clearly.
你说了一个前提我没听清楚。
If deindustrialization .
如果去工业化。
.
。
.
。
please clarify your question.
请澄清你的问题。
If deindustrialization is a problem for a nation’s middle class, for its national security —
如果去工业化对于一个国家的中产阶级和国家安全来说都是一个问题 ——
You mean the deterioration of its capabilities to earn money — industrialization.
你的意思是它赚钱能力的恶化—— 工业化。
Services would work just as well.
服务也同样有效。
It doesn’t have to be industry per se.
它本身不一定是行业。
By deindustrialization, I presume you mean the weakening of its earning power, the weakening of its economy.
我认为你所说的去工业化是指其盈利能力的削弱，其经济的削弱。
Is that what you’re referring to?
你指的是这个吗？
And it’s hard for the United States to build its own ships.
美国自己建造船只也很困难。
We depend on inputs, say, from South Korea.
例如，我们依赖韩国的投入。
A strong dollar, in that sense, is bad.
从这个意义上说，强势美元是不好的。
Isn’t it, then, also bad if the dollar is a global reserve currency?
那么，如果美元成为全球储备货币，那不是也很糟糕吗？
Rather than good?
而不是好？
The dollar as a reserve currency gives one the ability to print the world’s money.
美元作为储备货币赋予人们印制世界货币的能力。
Is that, on net, a good or bad thing?
在网络上，这是好事还是坏事？
Net — it’s like debt.
网络 — 就像债务。
Is debt a net good or bad thing?
债务是好事还是坏事？
It is both a good and bad thing.
这既是好事也是坏事。
Being able to create debt gives you the buying power.
能够创造债务会给你购买力。
Being able to print the world’s currency — such as when we were in the COVID crisis — and being able to print the currency that, around the world, will be accepted, allowed us to sell more debt.
能够印刷世界货币 ——就像我们陷入新冠危机时一样——并且能够印刷世界各地都接受的货币，使我们能够出售更多债务。
We could sell more debt because, when you buy debt, it’s somebody else’s currency.
我们可以出售更多债务，因为当你购买债务时，它是别人的货币。
In other words, when one owns debt, the buyer of that debt is owning your promise to deliver them currency.
换句话说，当一个人拥有债务时，该债务的购买者就拥有了你向他们交付货币的承诺。
When you have the world’s reserve currency, it allows you to get into more debt.
当你拥有世界储备货币时，它会让你陷入更多债务。
Now, getting into more debt has historically, if not done correctly or not done sustainably — in a way, it creates obligations to pay back.
现在，从历史上看，如果做得不正确或不可持续，那么在某种程度上，陷入更多债务就会产生偿还义务。
Those obligations to deliver currency and pay back have produced different types of problems in the future.
这些交付货币和偿还的义务在未来产生了不同类型的问题。
Debt is very short-term stimulative, and it’s longer-term depressing, and the ability to do that and have others take on our liability.
债务在短期内具有很强的刺激作用，但从长期来看却会令人沮丧，而我们有能力做到这一点并让其他人承担我们的责任。
As John Connally said, when he was the Treasury secretary and the dollar was devaluing and at risk, he said, “The dollar is our currency, but it’s your problem.” That has a net benefit.
正如约翰·康纳利（John Connally）所说，当他担任财政部长时，美元正在贬值并面临风险，他说：“美元是我们的货币，但这是你们的问题。”这有净效益。
It’s a net benefit, but like most things, it’s cyclical because you have to pay back, and it produces problems sometimes when you pay back.
这是净收益，但像大多数事情一样，它是周期性的，因为你必须偿还，有时当你偿还时会产生问题。
The United States is more indebted as a result of it being a reserve currency, and it all depends on who’s going to get stuck with that.
由于美国是一种储备货币，因此其负债更多，而这一切都取决于谁将陷入困境。
Germany and Japan can often borrow at lower interest rates than we can.
德国和日本的借款利率往往比我们低。
Does having the number-one reserve currency matter so much?
拥有第一储备货币有那么重要吗？
It matters to the extent that Germany and Japan don’t have anywhere as much foreign debt, and their amount of debt —
重要的是德国和日本没有那么多外债，而且它们的债务数额 ——
Japan has incredible levels of debt.
日本的债务水平令人难以置信。
It’s domestic, but they still find people willing to take it.
这是国内的，但他们仍然发现有人愿意接受它。
It’s domestic debt.
这是国内债务。
You can trade it on foreign markets — trades at very low yields.
您可以在国外市场上进行交易 ——交易收益率非常低。
But it’s domestic debt.
但这是国内债务。
In other words, they found their population to buy it.
换句话说，他们发现自己的民众愿意购买它。
They’re a net creditor country.
他们是净债权国。
The United States is a net debtor country.
美国是净债务国。
Sure.
当然。
Again, at the margin, if you look at the debt position of Japan, how much of it they’ve de facto monetized by trading for zero-coupon bonds, the fact that debt sells perfectly well on global markets for the prices and yields it does .
再说一次，从边际角度看，如果你看看日本的债务状况，他们实际上通过零息债券交易将其中货币化了多少，事实上，就其价格和收益率而言，这些债务在全球市场上的销售情况非常好。
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Almost all the main owners of Japanese debt are the Japanese central bank and the Japanese population.
日本债务的主要所有者几乎都是日本央行和日本民众。
It sells very little net on public markets.
它在公开市场上的净销售额非常少。
Sure, but the yen is traded internationally, and Japan has done this without the value of the yen collapsing, hardly.
当然可以，但日元是在国际上交易的，而且日本在日元价值没有崩溃的情况下做到了这一点，这很难。
Because of the supply and demand that I’ve just described to you.
因为我刚才向你描述的供给和需求。
If the United States had to .
如果美国必须这么做的话。
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we would then have to have this giant debt monetization.
那么我们就必须将巨额债务货币化。
We would have to do what they are doing and end up in a whole different position.
我们将不得不做他们正在做的事情，最终会处于完全不同的境地。
If we had to take our debt — the external amount of debt — and then say that we’re going to get into a creditor position, and if we get into a creditor position, then we’re in a situation where all of our population’s owning it.
如果我们必须承担我们的债务 —— 外部债务金额 —— 然后说我们将进入债权人的位置，如果我们进入债权人的位置，那么我们就处于一种所有人民都拥有它的境地。
Then we could be in a position that’s analogous to that.
那么我们可能会处于类似的境地。
I think I’ve answered your question.
我想我已经回答了你的问题。
We just have a different view.
我们只是有不同的看法。
On macroeconomic cycles and inflation
关于宏观经济周期和通货膨胀
If we think about macroeconomic cycles, Christina Romer claims a lot of downturns are the result of Fed contractions.
如果我们考虑宏观经济周期，克里斯蒂娜·罗默声称许多经济衰退是美联储紧缩的结果。
Jim Hamilton claims that some downturns are the result of high oil price shocks, and you have a theory of debt cycles.
吉姆·汉密尔顿声称，一些经济衰退是高油价冲击的结果，并且有债务周期理论。
If you’re just trying to apportion out mentally, how many of the cycles are Fed contractionary shocks?
如果你只是想在心里算一下，有多少个周期是美联储紧缩性冲击？
How many are oil shocks?
石油危机有多少次？
How many are debt cycles?
债务周期有多少个？
How do you see that landscape?
你怎么看那风景？
I think that there’s goods and services that exist in a certain quantity, and then there’s a certain amount of money and credit, and they interact.
我认为有一定数量的商品和服务存在，然后有一定数量的货币和信用，它们是相互作用的。
And throughout history, if you have, let’s say, an oil shock that is not accommodated by an easing of central bank policy — in other words, the production of more money and credit — then, what I’m saying, if there was the same money and credit and you had an oil shock, then as oil goes up, something else would have to go down, and it would produce one set of circumstances.
纵观历史，如果你遇到了石油危机，而央行的政策宽松无法缓解——换句话说，生产更多的货币和信贷——那么，我想说的是，如果有相同的货币和信贷，而你遭遇了石油危机，那么当石油价格上涨时，其他东西就会下降，这就会产生一系列情况。
It wouldn’t produce the same inflation.
它不会产生同样的通货膨胀。
It would produce a consequence, and it would produce a transfer of wealth for those who are selling the oil at a high price — they gain wealth.
它会产生一个结果，它会为那些以高价出售石油的人带来财富转移——他们获得了财富。
And it would produce a decrease in the wealth for those who are having to pay that higher price.
对于那些不得不支付更高价格的人来说，这将导致财富减少。
For example, it would make Middle Eastern countries richer, and it would make American companies and American entities poorer.
例如，它会让中东国家变得更富裕，而会让美国公司和美国实体变得更穷。
That’s what would happen in a world in which we were to look at those items, and that certainly can cause a downturn in the economy.
这就是我们关注这些项目的世界中会发生的情况，这肯定会导致经济衰退。
Similarly now, where you can print money and credit, you can create money and credit, and it could have its effects.
同样，现在，你可以印钞票和信贷，你就可以创造货币和信贷，并且它可能会产生影响。
But to answer your question about do oil shocks or Fed policy have an effect?
但要回答你的问题，即石油冲击或美联储政策是否会产生影响？
The answer is both because, for other reasons, the tightening of money and credit reduces demand for things, and as a result of reducing the demand for things, it weakens the economy.
答案是因为，由于其他原因，货币和信贷的紧缩减少了对物品的需求，而由于物品需求的减少，它削弱了经济。
Both an oil price shock or some other shock or a Federal Reserve tightening can cause the economy to weaken.
油价冲击或其他冲击或美联储紧缩政策都可能导致经济疲软。
That’s the answer to your question.
这就是你问题的答案。
Then it would have different implications, depending on whether the central banks provided more or less money and credit.
那么，这将产生不同的影响，具体取决于央行提供更多还是更少的货币和信贷。
We’re speaking in November of 2021.
我们的谈话时间是 2021 年 11 月。
Are currently observed rates of inflation in the United States going to be transitory?
目前观察到的美国通胀率是否会是暂时的？
And what do you understand by that term?
你对这个词的理解是什么？
Well, I’ll start by what I understand by the term, and then I’ll answer your question.
好吧，我将从我对这个术语的理解开始，然后我会回答你的问题。
By transitory, I think everybody understands that to mean temporary shocks that don’t become chronic, and therefore, we don’t have a chronically higher rate of inflation.
我认为每个人都明白，暂时的冲击不会变成长期的，因此，我们的通货膨胀率不会长期较高。
It settles back to the older rates of inflation that existed before it, but it’s not a problem.
它会回到之前存在的较旧的通货膨胀率，但这不是问题。
That’s what I mean by transitory.
这就是我所说的短暂的意思。
Do you agree with that definition?
你同意这个定义吗？
Sure, it’s fine, yes.
当然，没关系，是的。
Okay.
好的。
No, I don’t believe it’ll be transitory.
不，我不相信这会是暂时的。
I believe that there are two main sources of inflation.
我认为通货膨胀有两个主要来源。
There’s the usual supply and demand for goods — cyclical inflation — so that when there’s a demand for something that there can’t be a greater amount of supply being produced for it, there’s an upward pressure in that price, and that comes from strong demand pressing up against capacity limitations.
商品存在通常的供求关系——“周期性通货膨胀”——因此，当对某样东西的需求无法为其生产更多的供应时，该价格就会出现上涨压力，而这种压力来自于强劲的需求对抗产能限制。
That’s cyclical inflation, and it depends on how far the central bank accommodates that.
这就是周期性通货膨胀，这取决于央行的调节程度。
That’s the cyclical inflation.
这就是周期性通货膨胀。
The second is monetary inflation.
二是货币通胀。
When the production of debt is large, but the central bank produces more money and credit, that has the effect of devaluing the value of money and credit, which doesn’t show up, really, as it looks.
当债务生产量很大，但央行生产更多的货币和信贷时，就会产生货币和信贷价值贬值的效果，但实际上，这种效果并不像看上去那样显现出来。
It doesn’t look like it is going down as much as it looks like other things are going up so that you see things going up, as they are now, and that’s monetary inflation.
它看起来并不像其他东西在上涨那样下跌，所以你会看到事情在上涨，就像现在一样，这就是货币通胀。
I think right now we have both cyclical inflation and monetary inflation, so that if you look at the demand for everything, right now the demand is greater than the capacity.
我认为现在我们既有周期性通胀，也有货币通胀，所以如果你看看对一切的需求，现在的需求大于能力。
It’s really an excess demand issue, but provided by a lot of money and credit being put out.
这确实是一个需求过剩的问题，但却是通过大量货币和信贷的投入来解决的。
We also are running large deficits, and as we start to look farther forward, we have these very cheap interest rates, which means that it pays to buy things like, let’s say, houses.
我们还存在巨额赤字，当我们开始展望更远的未来时，我们的利率非常便宜，这意味着购买房屋之类的东西是值得的。
Practically, there’s no interest rate to speak of, and now a lot of loans are made on interest-only loans even.
实际上，没有利率可言，现在很多贷款甚至都是只还息贷款。
So, with hardly any interest rate, and not having to pay back principal payments in terms of the amount of ridiculousness that it’s gotten to that way, there’s a lot of demand for those kinds of things.
因此，由于几乎没有任何利率，而且不必偿还本金（以这种方式达到的荒谬程度），对这类东西的需求很大。
Now, that could be cyclical, but I don’t believe, when I look forward, that our deficits will be primarily cyclical.
现在，这可能是周期性的，但我不相信，当我展望未来时，我们的赤字将主要是周期性的。
I look then to the issues of politics, and the issues of the deficits, and the needs for money and credit or the desires for money and credit, and I think that they’ll be structural.
然后我关注政治问题，赤字问题，以及对货币和信贷的需求或对货币和信贷的渴望，我认为它们将是结构性的。
Also, there are certain changes in expenses .
此外，费用也有一定的变化。
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for example, while I believe that climate change and moving to cleaner energy and other such moves is very good for our ecosystem in the long run, it’s also very expensive, and it makes less efficiency.
例如，虽然我相信气候变化和转向清洁能源以及其他类似举措从长远来看对我们的生态系统非常有利，但它也非常昂贵，而且效率较低。
So, that’s going to, at that same time, add to inflation.
因此，这同时会加剧通货膨胀。
My worry or belief is that that will increasingly be built into the process, which we’re seeing, for example, in terms of changes in compensation, changes in many, many things.
我的担心或信念是，这将越来越多地融入到这个过程中，例如，我们看到，在薪酬的变化以及许多很多事情方面的变化。
Everybody’s seeing inflation around them, and it’s not just something that’s going to settle back.
每个人都看到了周围的通货膨胀，而且这不仅仅是会消退的事情。
If I take the cyclical piece, it’s going to require enough of a tightening — if you were to deal with that — enough of a tightening in monetary policy to stop that buying.
如果我考虑周期性因素，那就需要足够的紧缩——如果你要解决这个问题——足够的货币政策紧缩来阻止购买。
And the consequences of that would be very bearish for markets, and it would be very bearish for the economy and, I believe, too bearish for the Federal Reserve to want to tolerate.
其后果对市场和经济来说都是非常悲观的，而且我相信，对于美联储来说，这太悲观了，无法容忍。
That would only deal with the cyclical inflation pressures, whereas at the same time, we have the structural issues of those kinds of deficits that need to be monetized.
这只能解决周期性通胀压力，而与此同时，我们还面临着需要货币化的此类赤字的结构性问题。
For those reasons, I don’t believe it’s transitory, that we will go back to what we experienced before.
出于这些原因，我不认为这是暂时的，我们会回到以前经历过的事情。
On Dalio’s fundamental advantage as an investor
论 Dalio 作为投资者的基本优势
If you had to describe it in its most fundamental terms, your advantage as an investor compared to other professionals — is it that you’re smarter, you process more information, you have better managerial methods?
如果你必须用最基本的术语来描述，你作为投资者与其他专业人士相比的优势是——你更聪明，你处理更多的信息，你有更好的管理方法？
How would you pin down your unique advantage and expertise?
您如何确定自己的独特优势和专业知识？
Well, a few things.
嗯，有几件事。
I systemized and built an organization that systemizes the process to seek the timeless and universal truths of the cause-effect relationships.
我系统化并建立了一个组织，将寻求因果关系的永恒和普遍真理的过程系统化。
We have 1,400 people or so.
我们有大约 1,400 人。
We spend hundreds of millions of dollars each year on data and quantitative.
我们每年在数据和定量方面花费数亿美元。
I think it’s really the building of timeless and universal decision roles that have gone back.
我认为这实际上是永恒和普遍的决策角色的建立已经回归。
When I say timeless and universal, I learned early on that many things that happened to me and came as a surprise were things that didn’t happen in my lifetime, but happened many times before.
当我说永恒和普遍时，我很早就了解到，许多发生在我身上并令我惊讶的事情是我一生中没有发生过的事情，但以前发生过很多次。
The first of those — 1971, I was clerking on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange when, on August 15th, President Nixon got on and said, “We are not going to pay the gold.” I went on the floor of the stock exchange.
第一个是 1971 年，8 月 15 日，我正在纽约证券交易所的大厅里做职员，尼克松总统上台说：“我们不会支付黄金。”我去了证券交易所的大厅。
That never happened to me before.
我以前从未发生过这种情况。
I thought there would be a crisis and everything would go down, and I was totally wrong.
我以为会出现危机，一切都会崩溃，但我完全错了。
I found out that the stock market that morning went up more than it had in decades.
我发现那天早上股市的涨幅超过了几十年来的涨幅。
That led me to research and find out that on March 5th, 1933, President Roosevelt did the exact same thing, and it led to the exact same result.
这促使我研究并发现，1933 年 3 月 5 日，罗斯福总统做了完全相同的事情，并导致了完全相同的结果。
At that mistake, I learned that things that happened in my lifetime, but happened before and I didn’t experience, were good rules.
在那次错误中，我认识到，在我一生中发生过、但以前发生过而我没有经历过的事情，都是很好的规则。
I needed to study, for example, the dynamic of the Great Depression.
例如，我需要研究大萧条的动态。
By studying that dynamic of the Great Depression, I and we at Bridgewater were able to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis and do very well in it, only because we looked at those things that happened before.
通过研究大萧条的动态，我和桥水基金能够预测 2008 年的金融危机，并在这场危机中表现出色，只是因为我们研究了之前发生的事情。
It’s that which led me to do this study.
这就是促使我进行这项研究的原因。
I did this study not to write a book.
我做这项研究不是为了写书。
I did the study because these things that are happening now did not happen in my lifetime, so I wanted to study the cycles, like the rise and decline of reserve currencies, empires, and so on.
我做这项研究是因为现在发生的这些事情在我有生之年没有发生过，所以我想研究周期，比如储备货币、帝国的兴衰等等。
I needed to study the last 500 years.
我需要研究过去 500 年。
What is conveyed in this book is what I learned from doing those studies, those patterns, and I put it out there for people to judge for themselves the merit of them.
这本书所传达的是我从这些研究中学到的东西，这些模式，我把它们放在那里，让人们自己判断它们的优点。
They can judge for themselves.
他们可以自己判断。
I understand different people might have different views, and it’s totally their prerogative.
我知道不同的人可能有不同的观点，这完全是他们的特权。
It’s out there for people to learn, and it’s been that approach and the systematization of that approach with a lot of great people that has been the basis of our success.
它是供人们学习的，正是这种方法以及这种方法与许多优秀人才的系统化一直是我们成功的基础。
On management
论管理
Your management idea for radical transparency — where did that come from and how did evolve?
您的彻底透明的管理理念 — 它从何而来以及如何演变？
When did you start it?
你什么时候开始的？
I started Bridgewater — I didn’t even think of it as starting a company — just two years after I got out of school.
我刚从学校毕业两年后就创办了桥水基金（Bridgewater）——“我什至没有想到这是创办一家公司”。
It wasn’t a company, really.
这不是一家公司，真的。
There was somebody I’d played rugby with and then a couple of other people, and the idea was, we’re going to be truthful with each other — truthful and transparent.
我和一个人一起打过橄榄球，然后还有另外几个人，我们的想法是，我们要彼此诚实——“真实且透明”。
I have this belief that what brings me satisfaction is excellent work and excellent relationships.
我坚信，让我满意的是出色的工作和良好的人际关系。
I was taught, really, in the markets through my experience that being as accurate as possible is my goal.
事实上，我在市场中的经验告诉我，尽可能准确是我的目标。
Then to get at truth — what is true is fundamentally important in both making better decisions and also making good relationships, trustful relationships.
然后了解真相 —— 真相对于做出更好的决策以及建立良好的关系、信任的关系至关重要。
For that reason, it seemed apparent that, whether it’s in the markets or it’s dealing with people, being radically truthful and trying to work things through to find out what’s the best thing to do, given those realities, is fundamentally beneficial.
出于这个原因，很明显，无论是在市场上还是在与人打交道时，鉴于这些现实，保持绝对的诚实并努力解决问题以找出最好的做法，从根本上是有益的。
All through my life, maybe to some extent, I was influenced to do that.
在我的一生中，也许在某种程度上，我是受到影响才这样做的。
It just seems like the obviously better thing to do than to be the other.
这似乎显然比成为另一个人更好。
I think it’s very odd that the world questions being very radically truthful and radically transparent with each other, to try to find out what’s true.
我认为这很奇怪，世界质疑彼此之间是否非常诚实和透明，试图找出真相。
I think that’s a problem that the world faces in terms of those sorts of things.
我认为这是世界在此类事情上面临的问题。
Anyway, I came by it that way, and I wouldn’t compromise it.
无论如何，我就是这么过来的，我不会妥协。
As the company grew from a couple of people — I had a two-bedroom apartment.
随着公司从几个人发展壮大，我拥有了一套两居室的公寓。
It came out of the other part of the bedroom, and then it grew.
它从卧室的另一部分出来，然后长大了。
As we grew to, let’s say 1,500 people, there needed to be an organization and a culture that is built around those things.
当我们发展到 1,500 人时，需要有一个围绕这些事情建立的组织和文化。
That became of paramount importance.
这变得至关重要。
We built our culture.
我们建立了我们的文化。
It’s not for some people, and it’s great for other people.
这不适合某些人，但对其他人来说却很好。
With time, we’ve done that, and that’s what we do.
随着时间的推移，我们已经做到了，这就是我们所做的。
That has served us really great.
这对我们来说真的很有帮助。
It served us not only in terms of the investment management aspects of it, but it’s also served us very well in our relationships — that we can talk about anything frankly, and that we can deal with anything.
它不仅在投资管理方面为我们提供了帮助，而且在我们的人际关系方面也为我们提供了很好的帮助——我们可以坦诚地谈论任何事情，我们可以处理任何事情。
As a result of that, it produces the dealing with things well, and it also produces better relationships.
因此，它可以很好地处理事情，也可以产生更好的人际关系。
It’s been something that I believe has been key to our success, and it’s also something I recommend very highly.
我认为这是我们成功的关键，也是我强烈推荐的。
I understand people aren’t used to it, and so on.
我知道人们不习惯，等等。
It can be adapted, too.
它也可以进行调整。
I recommend that.
我建议这样做。
That’s how it developed.
它就是这样发展的。
What’s your model for why more of the world hasn’t followed suit?
为什么世界上更多的国家没有效仿，你的模型是什么？
Is it that leaders are cowards, too many workers are too emotionally fragile, just status quo bias, or what?
是领导者都是胆小鬼，还是太多员工情绪太脆弱，只是现状偏见，还是什么？
I think it starts partially neurologically, and partially how we’re raised.
我认为这部分是从神经学角度开始的，部分是从我们的成长方式开始的。
There’s an instinct to view disagreement as a fight.
人们本能地将分歧视为一场战斗。
There’s a fight or flight response, sometimes, to disagreement, rather than a curiosity to try to find out what’s true.
有时，对分歧的反应是“战斗或逃跑”，而不是试图找出真相的好奇心。
Then, I think that we’re raised in an educational system in which people are reinforced for having the correct answer.
然后，我认为我们是在一个教育体系中长大的，在这个体系中，人们会因为得到正确的答案而得到强化。
Like there is a correct answer.
就像有一个正确答案一样。
Certainly, there’s a correct answer — two plus two is four — but sometimes, in things, there isn’t, and to not know well and to disagree are bad things.
当然，有一个正确的答案 ——“二加二等于四”—— 但有时，事情是不存在的，不了解和不同意是不好的事情。
I think we’re raised that way.
我想我们就是这样长大的。
It becomes a habit that disagreement causes angst.
分歧导致焦虑已经成为一种习惯。
My theory — I ask neuroscientists, I ask psychologists about it, and they come back with those kinds of answers as to why that’s the case.
我的理论 —— 我向神经科学家询问，向心理学家询问，他们给出了关于为什么会出现这种情况的答案。
I found it in Bridgewater and other ways that that’s, for most people — maybe half the population or more — with practice and in an environment in which it’s valued intellectually, that they can get used to it and then not want it any other way.
我在布里奇沃特和其他方面发现了这一点，即，对于大多数人——“可能是一半或更多的人”——通过实践并在一个重视智力的环境中，他们可以习惯它，然后不再想要它以任何其他方式。
Let me just reverse it, and I would say, like I would say to anybody if we disagree, do you want me to have a good conversation with you?
让我反过来说，我会说，就像我会对任何我们意见不合的人说的那样，你想让我和你好好谈谈吗？
Maybe you and I are having some disagreement as to how the economy works, or whether the markets are efficient, and so on.
也许你和我在经济如何运作、市场是否有效等问题上存在一些分歧。
Is this a good thing, or is that something that produces angst?
这是一件好事，还是会产生焦虑？
I think it’s a good thing.
我认为这是一件好事。
Do you want me to be totally transparent with you about what I think?
您希望我对您完全坦白我的想法吗？
Or do you want me to hold it to myself, and ask you the same question?
或者你想让我自己保留这个问题，然后问你同样的问题？
I’d say I want to hear whatever you think because if it’s on the table, we can deal with it.
我想说我想听听你的想法，因为如果它摆在桌面上，我们可以处理它。
There’re two parts to our brain.
我们的大脑有两个部分。
There’s the intellectual part of our brain, and there’s the emotional part of our brain.
我们的大脑有智力部分，也有我们大脑的情感部分。
The intellectual part of the brain usually says, “Yes, I would like to know, and I’d like to be able to have that exchange.” And the emotional part of our brain seems in conflict with that.
大脑的智力部分通常会说：“是的，我想知道，并且我希望能够进行这种交流。”我们大脑的情感部分似乎与此相冲突。
That’s what the psychologists and neuroscientists say, and that’s why it’s interesting to them to see how we’ve created this different culture.
这就是心理学家和神经科学家所说的，这就是为什么他们对我们如何创造这种不同的文化感兴趣。
It’s not easy, but it’s like eating healthy and doing exercise, and so on.
这并不容易，但这就像健康饮食和锻炼等等。
If you’re around a lot of people who recognize that it’s healthy, and you live in that kind of an environment, you’d probably want to do that.
如果你周围有很多人认识到它是健康的，并且你生活在那种环境中，你可能会想这样做。
You, in fact, wouldn’t want it to be the other way.
事实上，你不会希望事情是相反的。
Many people who work at Bridgewater would find it very difficult to work in most other companies because they wouldn’t operate that way.
许多在桥水基金工作的人会发现在大多数其他公司工作非常困难，因为他们不会那样运作。
That’s what I think causes it.
我认为这就是原因。
The experts, who are more expert at figuring out the reasons, explained to me.
更擅长找出原因的专家向我解释。
That rings true, and it’s been consistent with our experiences.
听起来确实如此，而且与我们的经验一致。
With work from a distance, we’re now recording many more business calls.
通过远程工作，我们现在正在记录更多的商务电话。
Do you think your method of recording every conversation in the company will actually win out through a backdoor mechanism?
你认为你在公司记录每一次谈话的方法真的会通过后门机制胜出吗？
The recording, just to be clear, is for the purpose of providing transparency because I think that wrestling around with questions is something that a lot of people don’t get exposure to.
需要澄清的是，录音的目的是提供透明度，因为我认为很多人都没有接触过与问题搏斗的过程。
When I was running the company, and everybody comes out with answers but no real thinking behind those answers — that wouldn’t be something that I would have wanted if I was in their shoes, so I wanted to share that.
当我经营公司时，每个人都给出答案，但这些答案背后没有真正的思考 —— 如果我处于他们的立场，这不会是我想要的，所以我想分享这一点。
It’s something people could do or not do.
这是人们可以做或不做的事情。
You don’t have to record it.
你不必记录它。
You can record it for truthfulness, but the putting up — the reality of if it’s true, you could show it, and everybody will judge whether it’s true for themselves.
你可以为了真实性而记录它，但是把它贴出来——如果它是真的，你可以展示它，每个人都会自己判断它是否真实。
That recording and showing it— I don’t know whether others will do it or how they will use it.
那个记录和展示——我不知道其他人是否会这样做，或者他们会如何使用它。
I suspect they’re not using most of those to try to get at truth.
我怀疑他们并没有利用其中的大部分来试图了解真相。
I’m just saying that that’s helped me and us a lot.
我只是说这对我和我们都有很大帮助。
What do you think you know about psychometrics that other bosses do not?
关于心理测量学，你认为你了解哪些是其他老板不知道的？
How do you use psychometrics more effectively?
如何更有效地使用心理测量学？
I think I know a lot about psychometrics because of my experiences in the pursuit of it as an important interest to me.
我想我对心理测量学了解很多，因为我在追求心理测量学方面的经历对我来说是一个重要的兴趣。
I think that most bosses don’t know anything about psychometrics, and I would encourage them to learn about psychometrics.
我认为大多数老板对心理测量学一无所知，我会鼓励他们学习心理测量学。
Psychometrics are a means by which asking a bunch of questions, and so on, helps to measure how somebody thinks about things.
心理测量学是一种通过提出一系列问题等来帮助衡量某人如何看待事物的方法。
It’s common sense — if we ask a bunch of questions, we can learn what your profile is.
这是常识 — 如果我们提出一系列问题，我们就可以了解您的个人资料。
Online, for free, I put out our version that I worked with three great psychometricians to produce, and people can experience it for themselves.
我在网上免费发布了我与三位伟大的心理测量学家合作制作的版本，人们可以亲自体验。
It’s called PrinciplesYou.
它的名字叫PrinciplesYou。
Go online — it takes about a half-hour to do — and see how well it describes how you think, what your preferences are.
上网 ——大约需要半个小时才能完成—— 看看它如何描述你的想法、你的偏好。
There’s a cool thing that allows you to have somebody else do the same, and you could put it in, and you could see how it describes your relationship, based on how you think.
有一个很酷的东西可以让你让其他人也做同样的事情，你可以把它放进去，你可以根据你的想法看到它如何描述你的关系。
Now, the reactions to those things have been amazing.
现在，人们对这些事情的反应是惊人的。
They’re amazingly effective, but it’s not a new science.
它们非常有效，但这并不是一门新科学。
It’s something that existed a long time ago, started a long time ago.
这是很久以前就存在的事情，很久以前就开始了。
I started because I saw that people’s approaches to thinking were different, and I didn’t understand it.
我开始是因为我发现人们的思维方式不同，而我不明白。
I gave 150 managers in my company, first, the Myers-Briggs test, and it came back.
我首先对公司的 150 名经理进行了迈尔斯-布里格斯测试，结果得到了结果。
I asked them how accurately it described how they thought, rated on a scale of one to five.
我问他们，它对他们的想法的描述有多准确，按一到五的等级进行评分。
Eighty-five percent of them said it described them as a four or five, so, very well.
百分之八十五的人表示，这将他们描述为四或五，所以，非常好。
I read these descriptions, and in some cases I said, “I can’t even believe that people think that way.” We are thinking in ways that are different and based on those preferences.
我读了这些描述，在某些情况下我说，“我什至不敢相信人们会这么想。”我们根据这些偏好以不同的方式思考。
Yes, psychometrics.
是的，心理测量学。
I have spoken to the best psychologists, the ones who helped me build these other tests that are now available free for everyone.
我和最好的心理学家交谈过，他们帮助我建立了其他测试，现在每个人都可以免费使用。
PrinciplesYou — it’s free online — was developed by me working with Adam Grant, John Golden, and Brian Little.
PrinciplesYou — 免费在线 — 是我与 Adam Grant、John Golden 和 Brian Little 合作开发的。
If you look at their credentials and so on, they’ve been doing this for lifetimes.
如果你看看他们的资历等等，就会发现他们一生都在这样做。
They’re the experts.
他们是专家。
That’s my interest, and that’s why I have an interest in it.
这就是我的兴趣，这就是我对此感兴趣的原因。
I think other people who run organizations or really have to deal with relationships should look into what psychometrics can do to help them.
我认为其他管理组织或真正需要处理人际关系的人应该研究心理测量学可以如何帮助他们。
Do you think Bridgewater, on net, is selecting for agreeableness or disagreeableness, as one might express it?
你认为布里奇沃特在网上是在选择宜人还是不宜，正如人们可能会表达的那样？
We much prefer honest, thoughtful disagreeableness because we don’t want answers as much as we want reasoning, to examine the reasoning that leads to the answers.
我们更喜欢诚实、深思熟虑的不愉快，因为我们想要的不是答案，而是推理，检验得出答案的推理。
If you apply psychometrics to the United States of America — our moral character and psychology — where exactly are we falling short most of all?
如果你把心理测量学应用到美国 ——我们的道德品质和心理 —— 我们最不足的地方到底在哪里？
I think the greatest problem that we have is fighting with each other over views and opinions, to the point that we are risking a civil war.
我认为我们面临的最大问题是在观点和意见上相互争斗，以至于我们面临内战的风险。
The question for all disagreements and all major disagreements is, how do you know you’re right?
所有分歧和所有主要分歧的问题是，你怎么知道你是对的？
If two people are in a disagreement about .
如果两个人在某个问题上存在分歧。
.
。
.
。
There are opinions of whether you like something or not, so let me put them into two categories.
对于你是否喜欢某件事有不同的看法，所以让我把它们分为两类。
You have an opinion about something, I have an opinion — will the stock market go up or down?
你对某事有意见，我有意见 ——股市会涨还是会跌？
Or is tomorrow going to be like this or that?
或者明天会是这样还是那样？
And we have an opinion.
我们有一个意见。
If there are two people who have an opinion, how do you know you’re the one that has the right one or the wrong one?
如果有两个人有一种观点，你怎么知道你的观点是正确的还是错误的？
I’ve learned from mistakes.
我从错误中吸取了教训。
I worry about being wrong, and by worrying about being wrong, I don’t know if I’m the wrong one or the right one.
我担心自己是错的，而由于担心自己是错的，我不知道自己是错的还是对的。
The only way I can get to that answer is to find the smartest people I know who disagree with me, and I hear their reasoning.
我能得到这个答案的唯一方法就是找到我认识的最聪明但不同意我的人，然后我听听他们的推理。
That’s a path that has worked well.
这是一条行之有效的道路。
But if we now apply this to the country as a whole, and we have disagreement, I think our best question is, how are we going to successfully and not antagonistically get to the desired answer?
但如果我们现在将这一点应用于整个国家，并且我们存在分歧，我认为我们最好的问题是，我们如何才能成功而不是敌对地获得所需的答案？
I think it requires thoughtful disagreement.
我认为这需要深思熟虑的分歧。
Frankly, there are only two things I really care about.
坦白说，我真正关心的只有两件事。
I care more than anything that we, together as a country, come up, resolve our differences as democracy used to work, resolve our differences, and be productive.
我最关心的是，我们作为一个国家，共同解决我们的分歧，就像过去的民主一样，解决我们的分歧并富有成效。
If we can be productive and resolve our differences so that we have internal order and harmony, I don’t really care much about other things.
如果我们能够富有成效并解决我们的分歧，以便我们拥有内部秩序与和谐，我真的不太关心其他事情。
There are some opinions that it’s got to be exactly this way or that way, and I think that we’re in a dangerous situation.
有一些观点认为事情必须是这样或那样，我认为我们处于危险的境地。
I have a principle, which is, if the cause you are behind or the cause that people are behind is more important to them than the system, the system is in jeopardy.
我有一个原则，如果你背后的事业或者人背后的事业对他们来说比制度更重要，那么制度就处于危险之中。
I think that’s the case now.
我想现在就是这样。
If I was president of the United States, I think it’s such an important thing, I would probably have a bipartisan cabinet, and I would try to bring together the middle of the middle, and then have those in the middle try to deal with those at the extremes.
如果我是美国总统，我认为这是一件非常重要的事情，我可能会有一个两党内阁，我会尝试将中间派聚集在一起，然后让中间派尝试处理极端派。
Because I’m afraid that there will be a pulling to each of those extremes, and that there will be irreconcilable differences between those extremes, and that it will threaten rule of law and threaten democracy.
因为我担心这每一个极端都会有一种拉力，这些极端之间会存在不可调和的分歧，会威胁法治，威胁民主。
That’s what I think about it as it relates to politics and government.
这就是我对它的看法，因为它与政治和政府有关。
It’s striking to me how much your approach to US history is informed by what I take to be an understanding of Chinese history, so the cyclical emphasis.
令我惊讶的是，你对美国历史的态度在很大程度上受到了我对中国历史的理解的影响，因此强调了周期性。
What is your favorite Chinese dynasty and why?
您最喜欢的中国朝代是哪个？为什么？
Just to be clear on your first statement, it’s not Chinese or American as is described in the book.
请澄清你的第一个陈述，这不是书中描述的中国或美国。
I took all powers that existed over the last 500 years, 11 of those powers, the empires, the rising, and I looked at them all.
我拿走了过去 500 年中存在的所有权力，其中 11 个权力、帝国、崛起，我把它们都看了一遍。
And then, because the patterns existed in China and I feel I need to understand China well, I also took the dynasties back to 600.
然后，因为这些模式在中国是存在的，我觉得我需要好好了解中国，所以我也把朝代追溯到了600年。
I saw these patterns over and over again, and they’re not Chinese, they’re not American.
我一遍又一遍地看到这些图案，它们不是中国的，也不是美国的。
They’re universal because human nature is universal.
它们是普遍的，因为人性是普遍的。
When I look at a Chinese dynasty or a great European power and so on, the parts of them — they all have risen, and they have all declined.
当我观察中国的王朝或欧洲的强国等等时，它们的一部分——它们都崛起了，它们都衰落了。
When we say that we like a dynasty, I like the things that make it rise and be healthy, and I don’t like the things that make it decline and be unhealthy.
当我们说我们喜欢一个王朝时，我喜欢那些让它崛起、健康的东西，我不喜欢那些让它衰落、不健康的东西。
I don’t feel there’s a dynasty or an empire that I admire in totality.
我不觉得有哪个王朝或帝国是我完全钦佩的。
It’s those things that I admire, and what those things are across is, they’re measured in the book.
我欣赏的正是这些东西，这些东西所跨越的是，它们在书中得到了衡量。
I gave 18 measures of them, but there are certain basic things that they come down to a lot.
我给出了 18 条措施，但有一些基本的东西可以归结为很多。
One, it starts partially with leaders who make things work well.
第一，它部分始于使事情顺利进行的领导者。
There’s a cycle.
有一个循环。
There’s a new order.
有新订单。
A new order means that after some conflict, the new power takes over.
新秩序意味着在一些冲突之后，新的权力接管。
They win.
他们赢了。
There’s a leader or leaders who then, at that point, have to consolidate their power from those who are in opposition to them, and so on.
然后，有一个或多个领导者必须从反对者手中巩固自己的权力，等等。
Then they have to build a direction, and that direction comes down to basic things, such as, first and foremost, education.
然后他们必须确定一个方向，这个方向归结为基本的事情，例如首先也是最重要的教育。
When I say education, I mean both education of facts like, “Do you know these facts?
当我说教育时，我指的是事实教育，例如“你知道这些事实吗？
Can you read, write, and do arithmetic?” kind of thing, but also education in civility — how to behave well with others and your personal responsibility, which is usually, traditionally has been guided by the family, or could be guided by religion.
你会读、写、做算术吗？”诸如此类的事情，还有文明教育——如何与他人良好相处以及你的个人责任，传统上这通常是由家庭指导的，或者可以由宗教指导。
It could be in the schools, but to know how to be a person of good character and relate well to others.
可以在学校里，但要知道如何成为一个品格良好的人并与他人建立良好的关系。
The dynasties that did that, and you could look at the beginning of all of those dynasties — the Tang Dynasty, the Song Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty — just as you can look at it in terms of the early stages of many, many empires, including our own, the American empire after World War II particularly.
那些做到了这一点的朝代，你可以看看所有这些朝代的开始——唐朝、宋朝、明朝——就像你可以看看很多很多帝国的早期阶段一样，包括我们自己的帝国，特别是二战后的美帝国。
Education, and then converting that education and that civility to productivity, to be able to work well in a harmonious way with each other, a competitive harmonious way, to raise the living standards so that you are earning more than you are spending.
教育，然后将教育和文明转化为生产力，以便能够以一种和谐的方式、一种竞争性的和谐方式很好地工作，从而提高生活水平，使你的收入超过你的支出。
This is a fundamental thing — productivity and earn more than you’re spending, so you don’t depend on the building up of debt that eventually you can’t pay back, and that rise.
这是一件基本的事情 ——生产力和收入超过你的支出，所以你不会依赖于债务的积累，而这些债务最终你无法偿还，而且债务还会增加。
Then I see in all these dynasties and all these empires that there becomes, then, more debt creation, sometimes more speculation, and there become greater gaps — greater wealth and opportunity gaps.
然后我看到，在所有这些王朝和所有这些帝国中，债务创造越来越多，有时投机也越来越多，差距也越来越大——财富和机会差距越来越大。
Wealth gaps because the cycle produces these different opportunities.
贫富差距是因为周期产生了这些不同的机会。
Some people make a lot of money and others don’t, so naturally it produces a wealth gap.
有些人赚很多钱，有些人则赚很多钱，所以自然就产生了贫富差距。
But that wealth gap can be self-reinforcing because the parents who have more money give their kids better advantages, and they have more power than those who are born into families that don’t have much.
但这种贫富差距可能会自我强化，因为有更多钱的父母会给他们的孩子带来更好的优势，而且他们比那些出生在贫穷家庭的人拥有更多的权力。
So there becomes that wealth gap.
于是贫富差距就出现了。
Then there become higher and higher levels of indebtedness.
然后债务水平就会越来越高。
I’ve seen this all across countries, all across empires.
我在各个国家、各个帝国都看到过这种情况。
Then sometimes, because they have borrowing capacity, like having a reserve currency, they can borrow a lot of money.
有时，因为他们有借贷能力，比如拥有储备货币，他们可以借很多钱。
They do that, so they produce larger wealth gaps, more speculation, and larger and larger wealth gaps.
他们这样做，因此产生了更大的贫富差距、更多的投机以及越来越大的贫富差距。
Then something comes along, and they can’t do that.
然后出现了一些事情，他们就不能这么做了。
They can’t live on the debt anymore, and there are various reasons.
他们不能再靠债务生活了，原因是多方面的。
Then you see deterioration.
然后你就会看到恶化。
You can see deteriorations in even the notion of what people are going after.
你甚至可以看到人们追求什么的观念也在恶化。
Some poor family having to struggle, or a poor society having to struggle, develops different values than one that is born rich and is operating — it can be, in fact, decadent in terms of the way that they’re operating, and so on.
一些贫穷的家庭不得不奋斗，或者一个贫穷的社会不得不奋斗，他们所形成的价值观与那些出身富裕、正在经营的人不同——事实上，就他们的经营方式而言，它可能是颓废的，等等。
That’s an ingredient to decline.
这是拒绝的一个因素。
All of the dynasties or all of the societies that I’ve seen have had that.
我见过的所有朝代或所有社会都有这样的情况。
In some cases, acts of nature came along, too, and there’s an internal conflict over the things I just mentioned — all of them — not having enough money, printing a lot of money, being in a situation where they’re at odds with each other, and then, often, the rising power challenging that.
在某些情况下，自然行为也随之而来，在我刚才提到的事情上存在内部冲突——“所有这些”——“没有足够的钱，印了很多钱，处于相互不和的境地，然后，经常是崛起的大国挑战这一点。
You see the decline of the Ming Dynasty for that reason.
你看到明朝的衰落就是因为这个原因。
You see the decline of the Qing Dynasty, you see the decline of France, you see the decline of others for the same reasons.
你看到清朝的衰落，你看到法国的衰落，你看到其他国家的衰落也是出于同样的原因。
There are also these foreign powers that there’s a conflict with, and everything.
还有与这些外国势力发生冲突等等。
Then sometimes, there are these acts of nature, like the big drought or the big flood or something that causes a famine or a pandemic, and then that happens and throws everything off-kilter, too.
有时，会有一些自然现象，比如大干旱或大洪水，或者导致饥荒或流行病的事情，然后这种情况就会发生，一切都会变得不正常。
I see those patterns happening over and over everywhere.
我看到这些模式到处都在发生。
There’s no one dynasty.
没有一个王朝。
I like those that do it well, and I don’t admire those who don’t.
我喜欢那些做得好的人，不欣赏那些做得不好的人。
How does transcendental meditation improve your work relationships?
超然冥想如何改善你的工作关系？
Why choose that kind of meditation rather than some other?
为什么选择这种冥想而不是其他冥想？
I’ll take your second question first.
我先回答你的第二个问题。
Circumstances led me — I learned transcendental meditation because it was the thing that popped in front of me, and I was lucky enough to grab it.
环境引导我 —— 我学会了超然冥想，因为它突然出现在我面前，而我很幸运地抓住了它。
It was when the Beatles went to India, and they talked about transcendental meditation, and it was a big thing.
那时披头士乐队去印度，他们谈论超然冥想，这是一件大事。
There was a center in New York then.
当时纽约有一个中心。
I went and I learned then, and that was 1969.
我去了之后才了解到，那是 1969 年。
I learned years ago.
我几年前就学过。
That was a long time ago.
那是很久以前的事了。
Now, how it affects — transcendental meditation, like (I gather) a number of other types of meditation, has a mantra.
现在，它如何影响超验冥想，就像（我收集的）许多其他类型的冥想一样，有一个口头禅。
A mantra is a sound that you repeat in your mind.
咒语是您在脑海中重复的声音。
You’re sitting there quietly, and maybe one might think of something, like Om would be a classic example.
你静静地坐在那里，也许有人会想到一些事情，比如 Om 就是一个典型的例子。
You repeat Om in your mind when you’re sitting there quietly, and what that does — it takes your mind away from your thoughts.
当你安静地坐在那里时，你会在心里重复“唵”，这会带来什么——它会让你的心远离你的想法。
Your thoughts are jumping around.
你的思绪在跳跃。
They call it monkey brain.
他们称之为猴脑。
You can’t control your thoughts.
你无法控制自己的想法。
They’re jumping all over, and by repeating that word or sound over and over again, you eventually learn to go into that sound rather than it crowds out all the other stuff, and then eventually it disappears.
他们跳来跳去，通过一遍又一遍地重复那个单词或声音，你最终会学会进入那个声音，而不是它排挤所有其他东西，然后最终它消失。
Then you go into transcending, or let’s say transcendental state, which means that there’s quiet and peacefulness, and you actually don’t see anything, and you’re descending into your subconscious.
然后你进入超越，或者说超越的状态，这意味着安静祥和，你实际上什么也看不见，你正在下降到你的潜意识中。
Now, your subconscious is, like the word implies, below what we’re conscious about, but it’s very important in how we think.
现在，你的潜意识，就像这个词所暗示的那样，低于我们的意识，但它对我们的思考方式非常重要。
Most of our decisions really come from our subconscious.
我们的大多数决定实际上都来自我们的潜意识。
We talk about emotions and things there — they’re subconscious.
我们谈论情感和事物——它们是潜意识的。
When you’re in your subconscious and you’ve got this peaceful state, not only does that peaceful state give you tranquility and so on, and it’s very restful, but it also gives you an equanimity, a calmness, and a clarity.
当你在潜意识里，你有这个平和的状态的时候，那个平和的状态不仅给你安宁等等，非常的安宁，而且给你一种平静，一种平静，一种清明。
It taps into your subconscious because in your subconscious is where the creativity comes from.
它会触及你的潜意识，因为你的潜意识是创造力的来源。
You don’t sit there and say, “I’m going to work hard to be creative.” Creative ideas are the sort of things that come to you in a hot shower.
你不会坐在那里说：“我要努力工作，发挥创造力。”创意就像是在洗热水澡时突然冒出来的想法。
You’re not even there, and this idea comes to you, and it bubbles up.
你甚至不在那儿，这个想法就出现在你的脑海里，然后就冒出来了。
By putting it with the subconscious, that’s good.
把它放在潜意识里，那就很好。
You tap into that.
你利用这一点。
Then, what I found is that aligning the subconscious and the conscious is also like aligning the emotions with the intellect because we get mixed messaging.
然后，我发现调整潜意识和意识就像调整情感和智力一样，因为我们得到的信息是混合的。
Like I said, it’s like your two brains: your conscious brain — that might be your logical brain, and then your subconscious brain — that’s your emotional, and you’re getting different messages.
就像我说的，它就像你的两个大脑：你的意识大脑 ——这可能是你的逻辑大脑，然后你的潜意识大脑 ——那是你的情感大脑，你会收到不同的信息。
The meditation helps to align those and deal with the things that are coming at you.
冥想有助于调整这些并处理即将发生的事情。
Of course, my business and my life bring me a lot of things that are coming at me that could be stressful, and I find that by being able to have that state of mind where I can align them, have that equanimity, and make the decisions — I found that to be very helpful.
当然，我的事业和生活给我带来了很多可能会给我带来压力的事情，我发现，通过能够保持这样的心态，我可以调整它们，保持镇定，并做出决定 — 我发现这非常有帮助。
What do you enjoy most in jazz music?
您最喜欢爵士乐中的什么？
I enjoy most the combination of extreme talent and spontaneity, particularly when people could do that together.
我最喜欢极端天赋和自发性的结合，尤其是当人们可以一起做到这一点时。
That is something.
那是某事。
When you listen to really talented musicians who can do it like improv, and they can play off of each other and do it that way —
当你聆听真正有才华的音乐家的演奏时，他们可以即兴演奏，他们可以互相演奏并这样做 -
Name a group.
命名一个组。
I particularly like Jazz at Lincoln Center, and I like Wynton Marsalis and the Wynton Marsalis band.
我特别喜欢林肯中心的爵士乐，也喜欢温顿·马萨利斯和温顿·马萨利斯乐队。
Three quick questions to close.
三个简短的问题结束。
I’ll just give you all three.
我就把这三个都给你。
First, why are we undervaluing the ocean right now?
首先，为什么我们现在低估海洋的价值？
Second, why are Cape buffalo dangerous?
其次，为什么非洲水牛很危险？
Third, what are you going to do next?
第三，接下来你打算做什么？
The floor is yours.
地板是你的。
First, let’s establish that the ocean is the biggest thing on this planet, the most important environment.
首先，让我们确定海洋是这个星球上最大的东西，最重要的环境。
We undervalue it because we don’t have contact with it.
我们低估它，因为我们没有接触过它。
It’s like a sheet.
它就像一张纸。
The earth above the ocean, the highest point, Everest, is equal to the greatest depth, the Marianas Trench — 11,000 meters.
地球高于海洋，最高点珠穆朗玛峰等于最大深度马里亚纳海沟——11000米。
They are both a piece of the same, but the ocean is 72 percent of the world’s surface.
它们都是同一个部分，但海洋占了世界表面积的 72%。
So that means that the space and what it’s occupying and the lives that live in it and all of that is more than twice as large as all of the continents combined, and it has an enormous impact on our lives.
因此，这意味着这个空间、它所占据的空间以及生活在其中的生命等等，是所有大陆总和的两倍多，它对我们的生活产生了巨大的影响。
But when we look at it, we just see this sheet over it that’s going up and down, and we don’t explore it.
但当我们看它时，我们只看到上面有一张上下起伏的床单，而我们没有探索它。
People who haven’t seen beneath that sheet, or intellectualize what is beneath the sheet, undervalue it for that reason.
那些没有看到这张纸下面，或者没有认识到这张纸下面是什么的人，就会因此低估它。
For me, Jacques Cousteau helped me and excited me.
对我来说，雅克·库斯托帮助了我，让我兴奋。
As a result, I have been excited about the ocean, and I realize the importance of the ocean.
由此，我对海洋产生了兴趣，也认识到了海洋的重要性。
One of the things — a passion of mine — I’ve created a ship, which is the best oceanographic exploration and media ship on the seas.
其中一件事是 — 我的热情 — 我创造了一艘船，这是海上最好的海洋探索和媒体船。
We have explorers and scientists go on it, and they use it, and they capture that, and then they’re going to be showing that on National Geographic and Disney+ so that people get inspired about it.
我们让探险家和科学家继续研究它，他们使用它，捕捉它，然后他们将在国家地理和迪士尼+上展示它，以便人们从中获得灵感。
Anyway, I think it’s for those reasons that they don’t, and I’m working to rectify that by making that availability.
不管怎样，我认为正是因为这些原因，他们才不这样做，我正在努力通过提供这种可用性来纠正这个问题。
It’s called OceanX.
它的名字叫OceanX。
If anyone wants to go on and see what it’s doing, you can go on.
如果有人想继续看看它在做什么，你可以继续。
You can search for OceanX, and it’ll explain that.
你可以搜索OceanX，它会解释这一点。
Cape buffalo have killed more people than any other species.
非洲水牛杀死的人比任何其他物种都多。
More than hippopotamuses have?
比河马还多？
Even more than hippopotamuses.
甚至比河马还要多。
What do I think about Cape buffalo?
我对开普布法罗有什么看法？
I think you’re probably referring to my having bow-hunted Cape buffalo.
我想你可能指的是我用弓箭猎杀的非洲水牛。
I love being in nature.
我喜欢身处大自然中。
I love the interactions with species.
我喜欢与物种的互动。
That experience, which requires focusing one’s attention, playing the edge correctly, and being in that environment is something that has been invigorating.
这种体验需要集中注意力，正确发挥优势，处于那种环境中是令人振奋的。
I assume that’s why you’re asking that question.
我想这就是你问这个问题的原因。
In terms of what is coming next, I’m 72 years old.
至于接下来会发生什么，我已经 72 岁了。
I’m in an arc.
我在一个弧线里。
There’s a life arc.
有一个生命弧。
I’m in the part of the life arc of transitioning out of my second phase of my life to my third phase of my life.
我正处于从人生的第二阶段过渡到人生的第三阶段的人生弧线的一部分。
I believe life takes place in three phases.
我相信人生分为三个阶段。
The first phase is, you’re dependent on others.
第一个阶段是，你依赖别人。
You’re learning.
你正在学习。
The second phase, you graduate from school, you graduate from whatever college or high school, and you go to work.
第二阶段，你从学校毕业，从大学或高中毕业，然后去工作。
And increasingly, you’re working and others are dependent on you, and you’re trying to be successful.
而且，你在工作，其他人越来越依赖你，而你正在努力取得成功。
Then as you go to your third phase in life, you no longer have any desire to be more successful yourself.
然后，当你进入人生的第三阶段时，你不再渴望自己变得更成功。
You start to care about others, and you particularly care about others who will be beyond you — your children, your grandchildren, and the like, but also the society.
你开始关心别人，特别关心那些超越你的人——你的孩子、你的孙子等等，还有社会。
And what you want to do is instinctively pass along those things that have been helpful, and that’s the phase of life that I’m in.
你想做的就是本能地传递那些有帮助的东西，这就是我所处的人生阶段。
While I’m still playing my game of the markets and the economy, I’m also doing these studies and doing these investments and all that.
当我仍在玩市场和经济游戏时，我也在进行这些研究并进行这些投资等等。
I like it, but the joy of transitioning my company to have others run it .
我喜欢它，但是将我的公司转变为让其他人来管理它的乐趣。
.
。
.
。
It’s like having my family — adult children — I don’t want to be responsible for their lives.
这就像我的家人 —— 成年子女 —— 我不想对他们的生活负责。
I’m there when they need me, and so on.
当他们需要我时我就在那里，等等。
I’m here to pass along things.
我是来传递东西的。
I think that what’s next for me — there’s this book, which is passing along what I think are the most important things of our time.
我认为我的下一步是什么 —— 这本书正在传递我认为我们这个时代最重要的事情。
People can take or leave them, but I think they’re important.
人们可以接受或离开它们，但我认为它们很重要。
Others have thought — Henry Kissinger, Larry Summers — others said that this is a very important book, and anyway, people could judge for themselves.
其他人认为——“亨利·基辛格、拉里·萨默斯”——其他人说这是一本非常重要的书，无论如何，人们可以自己判断。
My next will be to complete my economic and investment principles because I do think differently about economics and investments than some people, which I believe is what has given me the edge, so I want to pass that along.
我的下一步将是完成我的经济和投资原则，因为我对经济和投资的看法确实与某些人不同，我相信这给了我优势，所以我想把它传递下去。
I imagine then, in something like a year or two, I will do that, and then I will go quiet.
我想，在一两年内，我会这么做，然后我就会安静下来。
Again, everyone, Ray’s new book is called Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail.
各位，雷的新书名为《应对不断变化的世界秩序的原则：国家为何成功和失败》。
Ray Dalio, thank you very much.
雷·达里奥，非常感谢你。
My pleasure.
我的荣幸。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
Thumbnail photo credit: Bridgewater Associates
缩略图来源：Bridgewater Associates