Pierpaolo Barbieri on Latin American FinTech (Ep. 122)

On digital currencies

关于数字货币

The centrality of the dollar in the international financial architecture is threatened by the fact that other countries will want to use their new digital currencies to push forward first international transfers, then bilateral trade, and finally, potentially, trade and transfers within their blocs in a way that will erode — not destroy, but erode — the supremacy of the dollar that we have seen over the last hundred years.

美元在国际金融架构中的中心地位受到以下事实的威胁：其他国家将希望使用其新的数字货币来推动国际转移，然后是双边贸易，最后可能是其集团内的贸易和转移，这将削弱我们在过去百年中看到的美元的霸主地位。

I’m not saying you fully replace one master with another, but you hedge masters in a way that somebody would have done in 1910 when you were thinking about the British-sponsored international system or the American system.

我并不是说你完全用另一个大师取代了一个大师，而是说你以一种 1910 年当你考虑英国支持的国际体系或美国体系时有人会做的方式对冲大师。

You’re an emerging market.

你是一个新兴市场。

You might want to hedge your bets and see what happens.

您可能想对冲您的赌注，看看会发生什么。

We all have to recognize — and this is something we spent a lot of time thinking about — SWIFT is old, and it’s inefficient, and it’s extremely expensive.

我们都必须认识到 — 这是我们花了很多时间思考的事情 — SWIFT 已经过时，效率低下，而且极其昂贵。

The real opportunity of digital currencies lies not in necessarily the novelty, but rather the possibility of supplanting a system that has been very cumbersome and extremely expensive for a long time.

数字货币的真正机会并不一定在于新颖性，而是有可能取代长期以来非常繁琐且极其昂贵的系统。

It doesn’t start by replacing the system, but it’s just inserting competition into the system.

它并不是从更换系统开始，而是在系统中引入竞争。

If you are going to have a transaction on SWIFT that costs you $200, and it takes days to clear, that won’t change in years if you have to think about decades.

如果您要在 SWIFT 上进行一笔交易，费用为 200 美元，并且需要几天时间才能清算，如果您必须考虑几十年的话，那么几年内都不会改变。

People may want to start transacting in that mode in a way that lowers the transaction costs and makes international transfers easier.

人们可能希望开始以这种模式进行交易，以降低交易成本并使国际转账更容易。

Both from a firm perspective and from a government perspective, it may allow you to hedge bets in a way that you wouldn’t otherwise have been able to 10 to 20 years ago, where SWIFT was, and still is, the only real system that you have.

无论是从公司的角度还是从政府的角度来看，它都可以让你以一种 10 到 20 年前无法实现的方式对冲赌注，而 SWIFT 过去是、现在仍然是你拥有的唯一真正的系统。

You drastically reduce the cost, and then you insert competition, and if you’re not doing this in .

你可以大幅降低成本，然后引入竞争，如果你不这样做的话。

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TransferWise is doing a version of this in Europe, and increasingly in other countries.

TransferWise 正在欧洲做类似的事情，并且越来越多地在其他国家做这件事。

But I think that you could foresee a world where there’s a federation of financial institutions or wallets that have non-SWIFT connections between them that allow those private protocols.

但我认为你可以预见这样一个世界：金融机构或钱包之间存在非 SWIFT 连接，允许使用这些私有协议。

You could even have it with a stable coin in the middle at some point to net it out in a way that it doesn’t involve individual transactions that increase the cost.

你甚至可以在某个时候将其与稳定币放在中间，以一种不涉及增加成本的单独交易的方式将其净额化。

The real difference in Mexico is that 70 percent of people are, as you said, outside of the system.

墨西哥真正的区别在于，正如您所说，70% 的人处于体制之外。

They don’t have a means of payment that isn’t cash, and that’s one of the real tragedies of Mexico because 86 percent to 87 percent of transactions, even after COVID, take place in cash.

他们没有现金以外的支付方式，这是墨西哥真正的悲剧之一，因为即使在新冠疫情之后，86% 至 87% 的交易都是以现金进行的。

The first thing that you have to do is introduce these people to the idea that you can have a means of payment that allows you to buy something or get something that isn’t within your immediate 8-block or 10-block radius.

您要做的第一件事就是向这些人介绍您可以拥有一种支付方式，让您可以购买或获得不在您直接 8 街区或 10 街区半径范围内的东西。

When you have a card and an account, then you free yourself from that branch where your friends or your family members go to to get the cash.

当您拥有卡和账户后，您就可以摆脱朋友或家人去提取现金的分行。

That’s the guy that has the racket.

那就是那个拿着球拍的人。

The real expensive fees are charged by the company that says, “I’m the only game in town.

真正昂贵的费用是由该公司收取的，该公司说：“我是城里唯一的游戏。

I’m the only place where you can send these people cash.” Why?

我是唯一可以给这些人寄现金的地方。”为什么？

Because cash is the only thing they know.

因为现金是他们唯一知道的东西。

However, if you have a card and a universal account, which 70 percent of Mexico doesn’t have, then you have the ability to use that account to receive the funds and cut out the person that has that little branch.

然而，如果您有一张卡和一个通用账户（墨西哥 70% 的人都没有），那么您就可以使用该账户接收资金，并排除拥有该小分行的人。

That branch is unnecessary at this point because even if Mexican networks are not as good as US networks, you still have 4G in most of the country.

此时该分支是不必要的，因为即使墨西哥网络不如美国网络，该国大部分地区仍然有 4G。

The problem is that we cannot give people accounts.

问题是我们不能给人们交代。

Across Latin America, the reason we started Ualá is that over 50 percent of adults are in that situation of never having had a payment mechanism.

在整个拉丁美洲，我们创办 Ualá 的原因是超过 50% 的成年人处于从未有过支付机制的境地。

You need to make it super easy, but it turns out you can teach people how to use a MasterCard because everybody wants Netflix, and everybody wants to have the ability to have Spotify.

你需要让它变得超级简单，但事实证明你可以教人们如何使用万事达卡，因为每个人都想要 Netflix，每个人都希望能够拥有 Spotify。

Once people learn how to use the account on the card, then you can boost that and give them the ability to receive funds in those accounts.

一旦人们学会了如何使用卡上的帐户，您就可以提高这一点，并让他们能够在这些帐户中接收资金。

You don’t have to do the financial engineering at the personal level.

您不必在个人层面上进行金融工程。

You do it at the company level, but the person sees radically lower transaction fees.

你在公司层面上做这件事，但人们看到的交易费用大大降低。

The beautiful thing about a Ualá account is that the account can be used for anything, and the card can be used for anything.

Ualá 账户的美妙之处在于该账户可以用于任何事情，该卡也可以用于任何事情。

It sounds like nothing new for a developed market, but it’s revolutionary for an emerging market.

对于发达市场来说这听起来不是什么新鲜事，但对于新兴市场来说却是革命性的。

Why?

为什么？

Because what you’re giving them is the ability to transact in anything.

因为你给予他们的是进行任何交易的能力。

You’re doing away with one of the biggest costs that they have and the reason they use prepaids in the first place, which is that whenever they take cash, they charge you a fee for turning that cash into an Amazon prepaid card.

您消除了他们最大的成本之一，也是他们使用预付卡的首要原因，即每当他们收取现金时，他们都会向您收取将现金转换为亚马逊预付卡的费用。

The little spot in Mexico, the little bodega charges you a 2 percent fee, and then they charge Amazon, too.

墨西哥的小店，小杂货店向你收取 2% 的费用，然后他们也向亚马逊收费。

We do away with that.

我们废除了这一点。

We say there is no digitization tax, so if you have 100 pesos, you’ll see 100 pesos reflected on your wallet card.

我们说没有数字化税，所以如果您有 100 比索，您会在钱包卡上看到 100 比索的反映。

Suddenly, all these people that are now over 100,000 in Mexico say, “Wait a second.

突然间，墨西哥现在超过 10 万的人口都说：“等一下。

You just made digital money as cheap as real money, so why would I use money?”

你只是让数字货币变得和真实货币一样便宜，那我为什么要使用货币呢？”

In the physical sense, I use digital money because, with this, I don’t have to worry about my cash being stolen.

从物理意义上讲，我使用数字货币，因为这样我就不必担心我的现金被盗。

I can use different services.

我可以使用不同的服务。

I can pay my bills without having to pay an extra to the guy there.

我可以支付账单，而无需向那里的人支付额外费用。

Eventually, I can receive a remittance without having to pay an egregious fee.

最终，我可以收到汇款而无需支付巨额费用。

I can top up money.

我可以充钱。

I can re-top up my cell phone, which, also, other people charge for and we don’t.

我可以给我的手机重新充值，这也是其他人收费而我们不收费的。

In the meantime, we’re building that person’s credit history, like we’re doing in Argentina but we’re not yet doing in Mexico.

与此同时，我们正在建立该人的信用记录，就像我们在阿根廷所做的那样，但我们尚未在墨西哥做。

I can then lend you against that credit history that is now digital because before, when you transacted only in cash, there was no way to know if you’re going to pay your bill.

然后，我可以根据现在数字化的信用记录向您借钱，因为以前，当您仅以现金进行交易时，无法知道您是否会支付账单。

Suddenly, if I know where you pay your bills, and how you pay your gas and your water, and how much you spend on Netflix, and how much you get every month from your friend across the border in the United States, then I can finally create a credit history in a way that is more transparent and, frankly, easier than what existed before, where 70 percent of the country was outside of the system completely.

突然之间，如果我知道你在哪里支付账单，如何支付煤气费和水费，你在 Netflix 上花了多少钱，以及你每个月从美国边境另一边的朋友那里得到多少钱，那么我终于可以以一种更透明、坦率地说比以前更容易的方式创建信用记录，当时该国 70% 的地区完全处于系统之外。

But I think that there are societies in which you basically don’t need a card.

但我认为有些社会基本上不需要卡片。

When I’m in New York — I don’t remember the last time I used cash in New York City.

当我在纽约时 —— 我不记得上次在纽约使用现金是什么时候了。

I think a cashless society is driven by the fact that the regulators want to see a lot of transactions, as in China.

我认为无现金社会的驱动因素是监管机构希望看到大量交易，就像在中国一样。

But it also could be driven by the fact that from a convenience perspective, you can create a better credit history without having to deal with the difficulties inherent in cash, which is dirty, expensive for the state, hard to manage, easy to steal, hard to save on.

但它也可能是由这样一个事实驱动的：从便利的角度来看，你可以创造更好的信用记录，而不必处理现金固有的困难，现金是肮脏的，对国家来说昂贵，难以管理，容易被盗，难以储蓄。

I think that in places like Sweden or Denmark, cash is going away very quickly.

我认为在瑞典或丹麦等地，现金正在迅速消失。

The problem is that there are certain regions in the world — and that’s why I do what I do — where 50 percent of adults have been completely left outside of the system.

问题是世界上的某些地区 ——这就是我所做的事情的原因—— 那里 50% 的成年人完全被排除在系统之外。

They don’t have a way to transact because the banking system gave accounts to the people they wanted to give accounts to, and they left everyone out, which is why those banking systems are so damn profitable.

他们没有办法进行交易，因为银行系统给他们想要开户的人提供了账户，而他们却把所有人排除在外，这就是为什么这些银行系统如此有利可图。

The Mexican banking system, which serves only 30 percent of the population, is amazingly profitable.

墨西哥银行系统只为 30% 的人口提供服务，但利润惊人。

It has much better margins than a European banking system or an American banking system because they just said, “Well, I’m going to serve this stratum of society and leave everyone out.”

它的利润率比欧洲银行体系或美国银行体系要好得多，因为他们只是说，“好吧，我要为这个社会阶层服务，把所有人排除在外。”

It’s a very inherently unequal situation.

这是一种本质上非常不平等的情况。

When we launched Ualá in Argentina, people used to sell Netflix subscriptions on our eBay, which is Mercado Libre.

当我们在阿根廷推出 Ualá 时，人们过去常常在我们的 eBay（即 Mercado Libre）上出售 Netflix 订阅。

That’s outrageous because Netflix prices their services to be freely available to anyone in these geographies for $4 or $5 a month, and yet they couldn’t access it because they didn’t have a payment mechanism.

这太离谱了，因为 Netflix 将他们的服务定价为每月 4 或 5 美元，向这些地区的任何人免费提供，但他们却因为没有支付机制而无法访问。

The payment mechanism opens the door to a credit history, to savings funds, to insurance, to making all those financial services that are readily available in the developed world, in the developing world that are really an interesting cost structure.

支付机制打开了信用记录、储蓄基金、保险的大门，让所有那些在发达国家和发展中国家都容易获得的金融服务打开了大门，这确实是一个有趣的成本结构。

When you think about it, when 50 percent of adults have never had a payment mechanism, what they want to do when they first get it is sign up for Netflix, sign up for Spotify, pay for a game on PlayStation, pay for something on Steam, buy something on Mercado Libre or Amazon.

想一想，当 50% 的成年人从未有过支付机制时，他们在第一次获得支付机制时想做的就是注册 Netflix、注册 Spotify、在 PlayStation 上支付游戏费用、在 Steam 上支付费用、在 Mercado Libre 或亚马逊上购买东西。

None of those platforms take crypto.

这些平台都不接受加密货币。

The day after tomorrow, when they do, maybe there’s an argument to be had.

后天，当他们这样做时，也许会有一场争论。

But it’s not a first transaction you do when you digitize to go buy a Tesla in Bitcoin.

但这并不是你用比特币数字化购买特斯拉时进行的第一笔交易。

It’s quite rare.

这是相当罕见的。

The rule in Argentina has been, if you operate with 100 percent of reserves and legally you don’t lend those deposits, you do not need to be regulated like a bank.

阿根廷的规则是，如果你用 100% 的准备金运营，并且合法地不借出这些存款，那么你就不需要像银行一样受到监管。

Why can I have a business model that relies on that?

为什么我可以拥有一个依赖于此的商业模式？

First of all, we do have lending, but we do it with investors’ money.

首先，我们确实有贷款，但我们是用投资者的钱来做的。

We don’t do it with our deposits.

我们不会用我们的存款来做这件事。

The deposits are kept on separate accounts that are never lent because, otherwise, I would violate the rule by the central bank.

这些存款都存放在单独的账户上，从不借出，否则我就会违反央行的规定。

Therefore, I would have to be regulated by the central bank as a bank.

因此，我作为银行就必须受到央行的监管。

Unlike other fintechs, we don’t derive most of our income from lending.

与其他金融科技公司不同，我们的大部分收入并非来自贷款。

In fact, most of the revenue we derive is either from the very low fees that we charge on asset management, which are the lowest in the market.

事实上，我们的大部分收入都来自我们对资产管理收取的非常低的费用，这是市场上最低的。

We charge less than one-fifth of our competitors.

我们的收费低于竞争对手的五分之一。

I’m sure you’re not going to be surprised when I tell you that in Argentina and in Mexico, the incumbents charge 4 percent or 5 percent fees on AUM just to give you a low-risk money market fund because inflation’s high.

我相信当我告诉你在阿根廷和墨西哥，现有机构对资产管理规模收取 4% 或 5% 的费用，只是为了给你一个低风险的货币市场基金，因为通货膨胀很高，你不会感到惊讶。

So they charge you egregious fees.

所以他们向你收取巨额费用。

Second, we make quite a bit of money on interchange.

其次，我们通过交换赚了不少钱。

In that sense, we’re more similar to the United States than we are to the European neobanks because interchange in Latin America is quite high.

从这个意义上说，我们与美国的相似度比与欧洲新银行的相似度更高，因为拉丁美洲的互换性相当高。

We can make a lot of revenue just by having those MasterCard transactions on our network versus someone else’s network.

仅仅通过在我们的网络上而不是在其他人的网络上进行万事达卡交易，我们就可以赚取大量收入。

Thirdly, we’re also in the business of merchant acquiring, which is growing a lot.

第三，我们还从事商户收单业务，该业务正在快速增长。

Once we’ve built the network on the payment side, we can build a network on the merchant acquiring side, which is reverse Square.

一旦我们在支付端建立了网络，我们就可以在商户收单端建立网络，这就是反向Square。

Square started with merchants, and then it went into personal accounts.

Square从商家开始，然后进入个人账户。

We started with personal accounts and eventually moved into merchants.

我们从个人账户开始，最终转向商家。

All those transactions are amazingly profitable.

所有这些交易都带来了惊人的利润。

We are once again the most competitive player in the system because, lo and behold, the only player that existed in Argentina doing merchant acquiring at this level — giving you live transactionality — used to charge 6 percent of every transaction versus 2 percent that you pay in the United States.

我们再次成为系统中最具竞争力的参与者，因为你瞧，阿根廷唯一一家在这一级别进行商家收单的参与者——“为您提供实时交易”——过去每笔交易收取 6% 的费用，而在美国则收取 2%。

Why?

为什么？

Because there was no competition.

因为没有竞争。

What did we do?

我们做了什么？

We launched a product that was 45 percent cheaper than the competitor, and guess what?

我们推出了一款比竞争对手便宜 45% 的产品，你猜怎么着？

We’re growing 100 percent month on month.

我们每个月都在以 100% 的速度增长。

We have a suite of products that allows us to be competitive and drive a lot of revenue without having to lend deposits.

我们拥有一套产品，使我们能够保持竞争力并在无需借出存款的情况下获得大量收入。

If you look at the Chinese players like Baba and Tencent — Tencent, full disclosure, is an investor in Ualá — you don’t need to rely on lending for so much if you have a very good payments product and if you have fee-earning products on the asset management side or on the merchant acquiring side.

如果你看看像巴巴和腾讯这样的中国玩家——腾讯，完全披露，是 Ualá 的投资者——如果你有非常好的支付产品，如果你在资产管理方面或商户收单方面有收费产品，你就不需要那么依赖贷款。

In fact, merchant acquiring, for instance, what Square does, is more profitable on per dollar invested than lending is.

事实上，商业收购（例如 Square 所做的）每美元投资比贷款更有利可图。

Even in geographies like Argentina, where lending has very low competition, the problem at the core is what you said.

即使在阿根廷这样的地区，贷款竞争非常低，核心问题就是你所说的。

There are cartelized banks that never wanted competition, that always charged for things that were never a reality in the developed world.

有些卡特尔银行从不想竞争，总是对发达国家从未实现过的事情收取费用。

It’s the same institutions in Spain that don’t charge opening fees, maintenance fees, renewal fees that do so in Latin America, in places like Mexico or Colombia or Argentina.

西班牙的机构不收取开业费、维护费和续展费，拉丁美洲的墨西哥、哥伦比亚或阿根廷等地也收取同样的费用。

Every time you go to the bank, they charge you for an opening fee or a maintenance fee or a renewal fee.

每次您去银行时，他们都会向您收取开户费、维护费或续订费。

We insert competition, and we do it with radically lower costs because we lower the cost of running a financial entity by 85 percent.

我们引入竞争，并且成本大幅降低，因为我们将金融实体的运营成本降低了 85%。

Why?

为什么？

Because we don’t have any branches.

因为我们没有分行。

We don’t have any other fiscal infrastructure.

我们没有任何其他财政基础设施。

We don’t do our credit history on paper as the banks still do in Latin America, and we give an account to everyone.

我们不像拉丁美洲的银行那样在纸上记录信用记录，我们为每个人提供一个账户。

That gives us an economy of scale that other people just cannot have, and the banks don’t move fast enough.

这给我们带来了其他人无法拥有的规模经济，而银行的行动也不够快。

In a more stable economy, I think it depends on the kind of quality of the ecosystem that we have and what kind of competition exists out there.

在一个更稳定的经济中，我认为这取决于我们拥有的生态系统的质量以及存在什么样的竞争。

I could have a very profitable asset management business on its own, but it’s less defensible.

我可以自己拥有一个非常有利可图的资产管理业务，但它的防御能力较差。

Eventually, there’s going to be more competition, and more people are going to get into that business.

最终，竞争将会更加激烈，更多的人将会进入这个行业。

Eventually, I think the value is in the whole ecosystem, and that’s something that we can learn in the new steady state that we learned from China, where people want to have all their money managed in very few platforms.

最终，我认为价值在于整个生态系统，这是我们可以在新的稳定状态下学到的东西，这是我们从中国学到的，人们希望在很少的平台上管理所有的资金。

Then different platforms are able to channel a variety of services.

然后不同的平台就能够提供各种服务。

Tomorrow in Argentina, we’re launching insurance in partnership with Willis Towers.

明天，我们将在阿根廷与 Willis Towers 合作推出保险。

We’re going to be the first fintech to offer direct access to insurance product on a fintech platform.

我们将成为第一家在金融科技平台上提供直接访问保险产品的金融科技公司。

There you want to move faster and offer services that are similar to what the banks do in a more digital way without the associated costs of the banks.

您希望更快地采取行动，并以更加数字化的方式提供与银行类似的服务，而无需承担银行的相关成本。

I think, eventually, there are positive externalities that come with having the best and fullest ecosystem, in the same way that Facebook was able to profit from having the network effects of having just a better ecosystem where more people wanted to join.

我认为，最终，拥有最好、最完整的生态系统会带来积极的外部性，就像 Facebook 能够从拥有更好的生态系统（让更多人愿意加入）的网络效应中获利一样。

Then, economies of scale also help financial institutions because, unsurprisingly, when you have 10,000 cards, nobody picks up the phone.

然后，规模经济也有利于金融机构，因为毫不奇怪，当你拥有 10,000 张卡时，就没有人接电话了。

When you have 100,000 cards, people start picking up the phone.

当你拥有 100,000 张卡时，人们就会开始拿起电话。

When you have three million cards, then everybody wants to be your partner, and everybody wants to sell services through you.

当你拥有三百万张卡时，每个人都想成为你的合作伙伴，每个人都想通过你销售服务。

That means that they want to sell it through you and not someone else.

这意味着他们想通过您而不是其他人出售它。

That should help you keep staying ahead of the game and, in the steady state, diversify away from having an 80 percent revenue-from-lending institution to a 20 percent revenue-from-lending institution, which I think is also, from a stability perspective, smarter in a place like Latin America where, historically speaking, you have a lot of potential macroeconomic negative effects.

这应该可以帮助你保持领先地位，并在稳定状态下实现多元化，从 80% 的贷款机构收入转向 20% 的贷款机构收入，我认为，从稳定的角度来看，这对于像拉丁美洲这样的地方更明智，从历史上看，那里有很多潜在的宏观经济负面影响。

On Argentina and Latin America

关于阿根廷和拉丁美洲

The fiscal consolidation was not done fast enough in 2016 and 2017 and then needed to accelerate dramatically after the taper tantrum, if you want to call it, or perceived higher global rates of 2018.

2016 年和 2017 年的财政整顿速度不够快，在“缩减恐慌”（如果你想称之为“缩减恐慌”）或认为 2018 年全球利率上升之后需要大幅加速。

So Macri had to run to the IMF and then do a lot of fiscal consolidation — that hadn’t been done in ’16 and ’17 — in’18 and ’19.

因此，马克里必须求助于国际货币基金组织，然后进行大量财政整顿——这是 16 年和 17 年没有做过的——18 年和 19 年。

Ultimately, that’s why he lost the election.

最终，这就是他输掉选举的原因。

Generally speaking, that’s the short-term electoral answer.

一般来说，这是短期选举的答案。

There’s a wider answer, which is that I think that many of the deep reforms that Argentina needed lack wide consensus.

有一个更广泛的答案，那就是我认为阿根廷所需的许多深度改革缺乏广泛共识。

So I think there’s no question that Argentina needs to modify how the state spends money and its propensity to have larger fiscal deficits that eventually need to be monetized.

因此，我认为毫无疑问，阿根廷需要改变国家花钱的方式，及其最终需要货币化的更大财政赤字的倾向。

Then we restart the process.

然后我们重新启动该过程。

There’s a great scholar locally, Pablo Gerchunoff, who’s written a very good paper that analyzes Argentine economic history since the 1950s and shows how we move very schizophrenically between two models, one with a high exchange rate, where we all want to export a lot, and then when elections approach, people want a stronger local currency so that we can import a lot and feel richer.

当地有一位伟大的学者，Pablo Gerchunoff，他写了一篇非常好的论文，分析了 20 世纪 50 年代以来的阿根廷经济史，并展示了我们如何在两种模式之间摇摆不定，一种是高汇率，我们都想大量出口，然后当选举临近时，人们希望当地货币更坚挺，这样我们就可以大量进口，感觉更富有。

The two models don’t have a wide acceptance on what are the reforms that are needed.

这两种模式在需要进行哪些改革方面并未得到广泛接受。

I think that, in retrospect, Macri would say that he didn’t seek enough of a wider backing for the kind of reforms that he needed to enact — like Spain did in 1975, if you will, or Chile did after Pinochet — having some basic agreements with the opposition that would outlive a defeat in the elections.

我认为，现在回想起来，马克里会说，他没有为他需要实施的改革寻求足够广泛的支持——就像西班牙在 1975 年所做的那样，或者智利在皮诺切特之后所做的那样——与反对派达成了一些基本协议，这些协议将在选举失败后继续存在。

The monetization of those deficits leads to inflation in a way that it hurts the people who have the least in society.

这些赤字的货币化会导致通货膨胀，从而伤害社会中最贫穷的人。

The rich are able to hold real assets that generally do well in an inflationary scenario.

富人能够持有在通胀情况下通常表现良好的实物资产。

The losers of that are the people that end up voting for those policies.

失败者是最终投票支持这些政策的人。

But we do have politicians that don’t really see that.

但我们确实有一些政客并没有真正看到这一点。

Even just 10 days ago, there was one very prominent politician that is part of the governing coalition who said, “We need lower inflation for the elections, and we also need more pesos on the streets.” He literally said that as if the two things were not an oxymoron.

就在 10 天前，执政联盟中的一位非常著名的政治家还表示，“我们需要降低选举中的通货膨胀率，我们还需要更多的比索出现在街头。”他确实这么说，好像这两件事并不矛盾。

I think the problem there was that Argentines became enamored of the idea that they were suddenly a rich country, that they were suddenly developed, that suddenly had this peg that nothing could touch, so they kept it too long.

我认为问题在于，阿根廷人迷恋这样的想法：他们突然成为一个富裕的国家，他们突然发展起来，突然拥有了任何东西都无法触及的挂钩，所以他们把它保留得太久了。

If Argentina had exited convertibility in 1997 or in 1998 after the Russian crisis, let alone after Tequila in ’94 — if they had known that they needed to float the currency to avoid an unsustainable fiscal path, then you would have avoided the collapse of 2001, which caught me as a 14-year-old, so I know firsthand what it is to feel it.

如果阿根廷在 1997 年或 1998 年俄罗斯危机后退出了可兑换性，更不用说在 94 年的龙舌兰酒之后——如果他们知道需要浮动货币以避免不可持续的财政路径，那么你就可以避免 2001 年的崩溃，当时我才 14 岁，所以我知道第一手的感受。

I think that there weren’t deep reforms done in 2001–2002, but there was a social collapse that led to a very radical change in the Peronist party and a destruction of the consensus that had existed until then.

我认为2001年至2002年间并没有进行深入的改革，但社会崩溃导致庇隆主义政党发生了非常彻底的变化，并破坏了此前存在的共识。

Suddenly, Argentina was able to grow at Chinese rates with no inflation despite fiscal spending because the effect was just so high.

突然间，阿根廷能够以中国的速度增长，尽管有财政支出，但没有通货膨胀，因为效果实在是太高了。

Ultimately, that was not used as a time to do the necessary reforms for long-run economic growth.

最终，这并没有被用作为长期经济增长进行必要改革的时机。

A lot of the political timelines and the personalities involved can be blamed for that, but I think we can all agree now, 20 years since then, that Argentina didn’t enact the reforms that Mexico did, that Colombia did, that Peru did.

许多政治时间表和所涉及的人物都可以归咎于这一点，但我想我们现在都可以同意，二十年后，阿根廷没有实施墨西哥、哥伦比亚和秘鲁那样的改革。

A lot of it — there’s a cultural answer to this, which is that Argentines think that we can take the easy way out.

其中很多——对此有一个文化答案，那就是阿根廷人认为我们可以采取简单的出路。

For these things to be fixed, we cannot.

要解决这些问题，我们做不到。

We have to do what everyone else did — what Israel did, what Peru did, what Mexico did — to bring down inflation.

我们必须做其他人所做的事情——“以色列、秘鲁、墨西哥所做的事情”——以降低通货膨胀。

What Brazil successfully did to bring down inflation.

巴西成功地降低了通货膨胀。

It takes years, and it needs a broad consensus because you cannot avoid doing it between one election and the other.

这需要数年时间，并且需要达成广泛共识，因为你无法避免在一次选举和另一次选举之间这样做。

Argentina has had a very efficient agro-exporting sector since the 1860s and 1870s, which led to its fantastic wealth in 1880 and 1890 and 1900.

自 1860 年代和 1870 年代以来，阿根廷就拥有非常高效的农产品出口部门，这导致其在 1880 年、1890 年和 1900 年获得了巨额财富。

But it hasn’t reinvented that model.

但它并没有重新发明这种模式。

It hasn’t reinvented itself.

它还没有自我改造。

It still has a fantastically good educational system.

它仍然拥有非常好的教育体系。

It creates a lot of interesting companies and great talent, and so it should be exporting services.

它创造了许多有趣的公司和优秀的人才，因此它应该出口服务。

I think that’s a little bit of what Uruguay is doing with a more pro-market, pro-world-integration view that is making Uruguay richer every year, more developed every year, and more competitive every year.

我认为这就是乌拉圭正在采取的一点点行动，它秉持着更加支持市场、支持世界一体化的观点，使乌拉圭一年比一年富裕，一年比一年发达，一年比一年更具竞争力。

All those companies are there, and there’s readily available capital.

所有这些公司都在那里，并且有现成的可用资金。

Everybody wants to invest more in Brazil, and you have a huge domestic market.

每个人都想在巴西进行更多投资，而且巴西拥有巨大的国内市场。

As I always say, when you’re a Brazilian company, you have zero incentive to go abroad because you have such a large internal market in a way that also the United States does.

正如我常说的，当你是一家巴西公司时，你出国的动力为零，因为你拥有如此庞大的内部市场，就像美国一样。

A lot of the internet revolution, if you think back to 1998 and 1999, started with Argentine companies.

如果你回想 1998 年和 1999 年，很多互联网革命都是从阿根廷公司开始的。

That’s when Mercado Libre was started in Argentina.

就在那时，Mercado Libre 在阿根廷成立。

That’s when Wences Casares started Patagon.

就在那时，Wences Casares 创立了 Patagon。

I think that Argentina does have a great talent pool, and it needs a better ecosystem, which has been eroded in the last 10 years.

我认为阿根廷确实拥有庞大的人才库，它需要一个更好的生态系统，但在过去的10年里，这个生态系统已经被侵蚀了。

I think that that’s starting to change, with companies like Auth0 and Despegar here, and obviously, Mercado Libre, which is still a huge employer, and of course, Globant.

我认为这种情况正在开始改变，像 Auth0 和 Despegar 这样的公司在这里，显然还有 Mercado Libre，它仍然是一个巨大的雇主，当然还有 Globant。

Argentina has a good chance of regaining lost ground, but for now, the capital of tech in LatAm is very much São Paulo.

阿根廷很有可能收复失地，但就目前而言，拉丁美洲的科技之都主要是圣保罗。

Those two lead me to a more important point, which is the availability of capital.

这两点让我想到了更重要的一点，那就是资本的可用性。

There’s a lot of people that want to deploy more capital into Chinese tech or Indian tech.

有很多人希望将更多资本投入到中国科技或印度科技中。

Their relative stability, demographic profiles, and size of domestic markets means that every VC fund that loves risk wants more exposure into those.

它们的相对稳定性、人口结构和国内市场规模意味着每一个热爱风险的风险投资基金都希望更多地涉足这些领域。

Whereas, for Latin America, that has lagged behind.

然而，对于拉丁美洲来说，这已经落后了。

When we started Ualá, I can’t tell you the amount of funds that told me, “Yes, we might sit in San Francisco.

当我们创办 Ualá 时，我无法告诉你有多少资金告诉我，“是的，我们可能会坐在旧金山。

We might sit in New York, three, four hours away from Mexico, but we don’t look at Mexico.

我们可能坐在距墨西哥三、四个小时路程的纽约，但我们不会着眼于墨西哥。

We don’t look at Brazil.

我们不看巴西。

We don’t deploy any capital in Argentina.

我们没有在阿根廷部署任何资本。

Please don’t bring me your idea.

请不要给我你的想法。

You’re based in Argentina.

您的总部设在阿根廷。

That’s too unstable a market for us to invest.”

这个市场太不稳定，我们无法投资。”

In 2019, when we raised our Series C, it was the first time Tencent invested in Argentina.

2019年我们进行C轮融资时，这是腾讯首次投资阿根廷。

It was the first time that SoftBank invested in Argentina.

这是软银首次投资阿根廷。

Only the first time in 20 years that Goldman Sachs invested in Argentina in a real economy play.

这是高盛20年来首次投资阿根廷实体经济。

We represented 96 percent of all the venture capital funds raised by Argentine companies in 2019.

我们占 2019 年阿根廷公司筹集的所有风险投资资金的 96%。

Yes, 2019 was the year when Macri lost the reelection.

是的，2019年是马克里连任失败的一年。

We can have that conversation, but the truth is that there’s a dearth of capital.

我们可以进行这样的对话，但事实是缺乏资金。

You cannot really have entrepreneurship and people willing to take the bet if you don’t have readily available capital.

如果你没有现成的资本，你就不可能真正拥有创业精神，也不可能有人愿意冒险。

That has changed first in Brazil.

这种情况首先在巴西发生了变化。

Why?

为什么？

Because of its macroeconomic stability, generally speaking, and also because of its availability of a huge domestic market.

一般来说，因为其宏观经济稳定，也因为其拥有巨大的国内市场。

A lot of entrepreneurs are saying, “Well, if nothing else, I’m just going to copy that American idea or copy that Chinese idea and bring it to Brazil.”

很多企业家都说，“好吧，如果不出意外，我就会复制美国的想法或复制中国的想法，然后把它带到巴西。”

Finally, if people are willing to deploy the capital, I think Latin America is generally grossly underinvested outside government bonds and the energy sector.

最后，如果人们愿意配置资金，我认为拉丁美洲在政府债券和能源部门之外的投资普遍严重不足。

I think that in Latin America, it’s less widely accepted that people are going to go into that risk and take that risk.

我认为，在拉丁美洲，人们不那么普遍地接受人们会承担这种风险。

A lot of the people that are willing to do it just find their way to the United States, or find a way to the UK, and never come back.

很多愿意这样做的人只是想办法去美国，或者想办法去英国，然后就再也没有回来。

For instance, we’ve had a hard time — and we’ve talked about this with many prominent American entrepreneurs — how hard it is to find talent in Mexico because, unless you are an heir or an heiress, if you found your way to an American college or an American business school or a UK degree or a French degree, what’s your incentive to go back?

例如，我们经历了一段困难时期 ——我们已经与许多著名的美国企业家讨论过这个问题 ——在墨西哥寻找人才是多么困难，因为除非你是继承人或女继承人，否则如果你找到了进入美国大学或美国商学院或英国学位或法国学位的途径，那么你回去的动力是什么？

There is no capital.

没有资本。

It’s hard to hire.

很难雇用。

The incumbents are powerful.

现任者实力雄厚。

A lot of the sectors like banking are cartelized.

许多行业（例如银行业）都实行卡特尔化。

Why am I going to go back?

我为什么要回去？

I’m just going to stay in New York, make a better salary, take less of a gamble, and not have to explain to my family why I’m betting my farm in coming back.

我只想留在纽约，赚更多的薪水，减少赌博，并且不必向我的家人解释为什么我要赌我的农场回来。

We’ve hired a lot of people for Ualá that have moved back from the United States or from the UK to work at Ualá, and they’ve had to explain to their families why on earth they were headed back to Argentina when they had made it to America.

我们为乌拉雇佣了很多从美国或英国搬回乌拉工作的人，他们必须向家人解释为什么他们来到美国后又要回到阿根廷。

It reminded me of what my forefathers used to say in Italy.

这让我想起了我的祖先在意大利时常说的话。

You left to “fare l’America,” to make it in America, and you certainly never looked back.

你离开是为了“fare l’America”，为了在美国取得成功，你当然不会回头。

I think that what Brazil has is a profound political crisis, where you’ve had a loss of representation on the center-right.

我认为巴西面临的是一场深刻的政治危机，中右翼代表权的丧失。

The center-right has been hijacked by Bolsonaro, who has a very free-market-thinking finance minister in Paulo Guedes but remains somebody that you cannot predict.

中右翼已经被博尔索纳罗劫持了，博尔索纳罗有一位非常具有自由市场思维的财政部长保罗·格德斯，但他仍然是一个你无法预测的人。

One day, you think that Bolsonaro is going to do the right thing.

有一天，你认为博尔索纳罗会做正确的事。

Then he suddenly replaces the managerial head of Petrobras, one of the largest companies in the country, by an army person, and everybody’s thinking about a coup.

然后他突然用一名军人取代了巴西国家石油公司（巴西最大的公司之一）的管理负责人，每个人都在考虑发动政变。

The following day, he puts forward a very liberal tax reform plan designed by Guedes.

第二天，他提出了格德斯设计的非常宽松的税收改革计划。

That kind of player has taken over the center-right in a similar way to how Donald Trump hijacked and replaced the elite of the Republican Party in 2015 and 2016.

这种球员以类似于唐纳德·特朗普在2015年和2016年劫持并取代共和党精英的方式接管了中右翼。

Then on the left, you have a deepening problem of the judicial issues associated with Lava Jato, which was a little bit of a Brazilian Mani Pulite, going back to the Italian scandal in the early 1990s that imploded the political scenario until Berlusconi appeared in ’94.

然后在左边，你会遇到与“洗车行动”相关的更深层次的司法问题，这有点像巴西的“玛尼·普利特”，可以追溯到 20 世纪 90 年代初的意大利丑闻，该丑闻导致政治局势崩溃，直到 94 年贝卢斯科尼出现。

So you have a vacuum of power.

所以你的权力真空。

Lula has been in jail.

卢拉已入狱。

Now he’s out, and I expect him to form back together the PT, which is the Worker’s Party, the Partido dos Trabalhadores, and I think that Lula will become the rallying cry of the center-left and the left.

现在他出局了，我希望他能重新组建劳工党，即工人党，劳工党，我认为卢拉将成为中左翼和左翼的战斗口号。

Then it remains to be seen if Bolsonaro can still build an anti-Lula coalition.

那么博尔索纳罗是否还能建立反卢拉联盟还有待观察。

But the answer to your question is, you have a radical politically with a liberal — in the British sense — economic agenda, who has been trying to build a coalition that is becoming smaller, and a resurgent left.

但你的问题的答案是，你在政治上有一个激进的自由主义者——英国意义上的自由主义者——经济议程，他们一直试图建立一个规模不断缩小的联盟，以及一个复兴的左派。

It’s very difficult for Bolsonaro not to give in to spending as much as he can, as fast as he can, to secure reelection next year.

对于博尔索纳罗来说，要想不屈服于尽可能多、尽可能快的支出，以确保明年连任是非常困难的。

That bodes ill for Brazil’s long-term reform since the Cardoso administration.

这对卡多佐政府以来巴西的长期改革来说是一个坏兆头。

Brazil is at the risk of throwing out, of wasting the difficulty and the time spent in lowering inflation and building credibility in its domestic economy by spending too much, too fast to stave off Lula’s return.

巴西面临着被淘汰的风险，因为为了阻止卢拉的回归而花费太多、太快，从而浪费了在降低通胀和建立国内经济信誉方面所花费的困难和时间。

However, you should still think about Chile as an amazing success story of the last 40 years — development, much lower poverty, much lower hunger, much higher educational achievements.

然而，你仍然应该将智利视为过去 40 年的一个惊人的成功故事——发展、贫困率大幅降低、饥饿率大幅下降、教育成就大幅提高。

I think Chile is still a success story, especially when you compare it to Argentina, which has created net poor people in the last 30 years versus reducing it.

我认为智利仍然是一个成功的故事，特别是当你将它与阿根廷相比时，阿根廷在过去 30 年中创造了净贫困人口，而不是减少了净贫困人口。

But I think it could have been done in a smarter way if healthcare and education had had more of a public element than they have had.

但我认为，如果医疗保健和教育具有更多的公共元素，那么这可能会以更明智的方式完成。

On things under- and overrated

关于被低估和高估的事情

Generally, it’s the amount of Italians that live in Argentina.

一般来说，这是居住在阿根廷的意大利人的数量。

Around 40 percent of the population is directly or indirectly descendant of Italians, and so there’s this attachment to Italian culture and Italian food as a result.

大约 40% 的人口是意大利人的直接或间接后裔，因此人们对意大利文化和意大利美食有着浓厚的兴趣。

My name should tell you everything you need to know about that.

我的名字应该告诉你你需要知道的一切。

I would certainly cherish my time with professors there and the time in the United States.

我当然会珍惜与那里的教授以及在美国的时光。

It’s important to really explore different visions of your life and areas to explore.

真正探索生活的不同愿景和要探索的领域非常重要。

I arrived at Harvard thinking I was going to do film, and I ended up studying history and writing a book about Nazi Germany and the Spanish Civil War, as you mentioned in the beginning — that nobody read, by the way.

我到达哈佛时以为我要拍电影，最后我学习了历史并写了一本关于纳粹德国和西班牙内战的书，正如你在开头提到的那样——顺便说一句，没有人读。

I think that it’s often undervalued in the world — the great aspects of a liberal arts education, especially when you come from a geography where I come from, and I see what other people studied and how they were closeted into certain ideas very early on.

我认为它在世界上经常被低估——文科教育的伟大方面，尤其是当你来自我所在的地理区域时，我看到其他人学习了什么以及他们如何很早就接受某些想法。

I think that that’s an amazing time and an amazing opportunity, and it remains a great luck I had in life to go from Argentina to studying at Harvard, having the friends I did there and what I learned there.

我认为那是一段美妙的时光和绝佳的机会，从阿根廷来到哈佛学习，拥有在那里结交的朋友以及在那里学到的东西，这仍然是我一生中的一大幸运。

Also, having the ability to work with people like Charles Maier and Patrice Higonnet and wonderful historians like Stanley Hoffman, Emma Rothschild — all of them.

此外，还有能力与查尔斯·迈尔（Charles Maier）和帕特里斯·伊戈内特（Patrice Higonnet）等人以及斯坦利·霍夫曼（Stanley Hoffman）、艾玛·罗斯柴尔德（Emma Rothschild）等出色的历史学家一起工作——他们所有人。

I was just lucky to be there.

我很幸运能在那里。

I know that education needs a tech revolution so that education is more readily available to more people because it is amazingly stratified and opaque as it is, but Harvard is an amazing institution.

我知道教育需要一场技术革命，以便更多的人能够更容易地接受教育，因为它的分层性和不透明性令人惊讶，但哈佛大学是一个了不起的机构。

I’m so grateful that somebody from Argentina could go there on a scholarship because God knows I couldn’t pay for it three years after the 2001 crisis.

我很感激来自阿根廷的人能获得奖学金去那里，因为上帝知道 2001 年危机三年后我无力支付学费。

Thanks to the reforms that Larry Summers implemented as president, and the whole body of the faculty put together, I was able to go.

感谢拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）作为校长实施的改革以及全体教职员工的共同努力，我才得以离开。

I can’t even choose.

我什至无法选择。

Niall once joked to me that I wrote about Spain because I didn’t feel old enough to write about Argentina.

尼尔曾经对我开玩笑说，我写西班牙是因为我觉得自己还不够老，无法写阿根廷。

But the process of economic decline that Spain endured since the 1830s to the Civil War, that culminated in the Civil War between a republican Spain that looked to France and a very Catholic, conservative Spain that wanted to turn back the clock, are still the dividing fault lines of Spanish society today.

但西班牙自 1830 年代以来经历的经济衰退过程一直到内战，最终导致仰赖法国的共和派西班牙与想要倒退的天主教保守西班牙之间的内战，这仍然是当今西班牙社会的分界线。

But at least Moncloa happened.

但至少蒙克洛亚发生了。

At least democratization happened.

至少民主化发生了。

At least European integration happened.

至少欧洲一体化发生了。

Spain today has a developed, open, competitive democracy with a developed, open, competitive economy, so people can be less tied to old stigmas, but the Civil War was a very dark time.

今天的西班牙拥有发达、开放、竞争性的民主国家，拥有发达、开放、竞争性的经济，因此人们可以减少对旧耻辱的束缚，但内战是一个非常黑暗的时期。

A lot of the crimes were never prosecuted, and a lot of the faults were never inquired about, so they keep coming up in culture — just like the American Civil War is still a really important part of American culture, and just like the Dirty War in Argentina in the 1970s still defines our politics today.

许多罪行从未被起诉，许多错误从未被追究，因此它们不断在文化中出现——就像美国内战仍然是美国文化的重要组成部分，就像 1970 年代阿根廷的肮脏战争仍然定义着我们今天的政治一样。

It’s not that unique.

这并不是那么独特。

But I don’t think that the leadership of the party — and at that point, of the state — would have gone with that.

但我不认为党的领导——以及到那时的国家——的领导会随之消失。

Because the general conclusion of my book, in terms of Nazi economic policy, is that unless you really tap the brakes in mid-1937, war was the only possible way out.

因为就纳粹经济政策而言，我的书的总体结论是，除非你真的在 1937 年中期踩刹车，否则战争是唯一可能的出路。

At one point, as Adam Tooze wrote masterfully in Wages of Destruction, you ended up having 20 percent to 25 percent of GDP going into armaments and that’s wholly .

正如亚当·图兹 (Adam Tooze) 在《毁灭的代价》一书中精彩地写道，在某一时刻，你最终将 GDP 的 20% 到 25% 投入了军备，而且仅此而已。

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you’re not going to sell that to the French, so ultimately, war was decided upon as early as 1937.

你不会把它卖给法国人，所以最终早在 1937 年就决定了战争。

Obviously, learning and knowing financial history is essential to wanting to disrupt a cartelized group of banks.

显然，学习和了解金融历史对于想要颠覆银行卡特尔集团至关重要。

Because I’ve seen it elsewhere and I know what universal banking can do to a society, to its development possibilities, to social mobility, to democratization, as I was saying earlier.

因为我在其他地方见过它，我知道全能银行可以对社会、对发展可能性、对社会流动性、对民主化产生什么作用，正如我之前所说的。

I think that understanding possible paths — and here’s a good time to bring up another Borges — the divergent paths of your history and the possibilities of building product are good for bringing together a team.

我认为理解可能的路径 ——现在是培养另一个博尔赫斯的好时机 ——你的历史的不同路径和构建产品的可能性有利于将团队聚集在一起。

Ultimately, what a founder does is provide a vision and hire people.

最终，创始人所做的就是提供愿景并雇用人员。

I can’t claim that I wrote a line of code, and I can’t claim that I run everything in the company, but the key job is to inspire, to set the direction, and to trust people and hire well.

我不能声称我写了一行代码，也不能声称我管理公司的一切，但关键的工作是激励、设定方向、信任员工并雇用好员工。

When you have the better people, the best people — and I’ve done that in a way that is different from most Latin American founders because over 15 percent of the company is owned by their management team, and that excludes me, but that can only be born out of the humility that comes from the idea that I cannot do it myself.

当你拥有更优秀的人才、最优秀的人才时，我会以一种与大多数拉丁美洲创始人不同的方式做到这一点，因为公司 15% 以上的股份归他们的管理团队所有，而这将我排除在外，但这只能源于我自己无法做到这一点的谦逊。

I cannot write the code, but I know where we have to go to disrupt the system because historically, I’ve seen it elsewhere.

我无法编写代码，但我知道我们必须去哪里破坏系统，因为从历史上看，我在其他地方见过它。

I know what needs to happen to have universal financial literacy and financial education so that people can be integrated into the system.

我知道需要做什么来普及金融知识和金融教育，以便人们能够融入这个体系。

I want us to take us that way.

我希望我们能这样走。

In that sense, this unusual background is useful.

从这个意义上说，这种不寻常的背景是有用的。

Some of the best backgrounds for founders are people who come from different industries, from different walks of life, that have the gall — for lack of a better word — to try to disrupt an industry, and it remains to be seen if I succeed or not.

对于创始人来说，一些最好的背景是来自不同行业、不同阶层的人，他们有胆量——“找不到更好的词”——试图颠覆一个行业，而我是否成功还有待观察。

But if it does, it will have something to do with the fact that we wanted to start from scratch and ask the basic fundamental questions in a different way.

但如果确实如此，那将与我们想从头开始并以不同的方式提出基本问题有关。

When the big banks try to hire my people, they can offer them great salaries, but they’re not going to offer them 1 percent of Santander, and they’re not going to offer them the growth trajectory of what we’re building here.

当大银行试图雇用我的员工时，他们可以为他们提供丰厚的薪水，但他们不会为他们提供桑坦德银行 1% 的股份，也不会为他们提供我们在这里建设的增长轨迹。

That’s how I’ve gotten people to quit from Goldman, from J.P.

这就是我如何让人们离开高盛、J.P.

Morgan, from McKinsey, from Mercado Libre to join Ualá and share the dream.

来自麦肯锡、来自 Mercado Libre 的 Morgan 加入 Ualá 并分享梦想。

As a founder, you have to recognize that you don’t have all the answers.

作为创始人，你必须认识到你并没有所有的答案。

When you build a better team, they improve on your idea.

当你建立一个更好的团队时，他们会改进你的想法。

I think the worst founders are the ones who obsess with their own centrality to the process.

我认为最糟糕的创始人是那些沉迷于自己在流程中的中心地位的人。

Whereas learning from history, I think that in order to craft the best team, you have to have them fully aligned with you, and give them the power to really execute on what they know about.

在以史为鉴的同时，我认为，为了打造最好的团队，你必须让他们与你完全一致，并赋予他们真正执行他们所知道的事情的权力。

I can’t tell my head of cards, who ran cards at Citibank for 25 years, how to do a credit card.

我无法告诉我在花旗银行经营卡业务 25 年的信用卡主管如何办理信用卡。

I cannot tell my head of ops, who used to run ops for a division of J.P.

我无法告诉我的行动主管，他曾经为 J.P. 的一个部门负责行动。

Morgan here, how to do ops.

摩根在这里，如何进行操作。

I just have to trust them and have the humility to know that they know how to do things that I just couldn’t learn how to do.

我只需要相信他们并谦虚地知道他们知道如何做我无法学会如何做的事情。

Great books teach you a lot, and biographies are a great way to get there.

伟大的书籍可以教会你很多东西，而传记是实现这一目标的好方法。

Obviously, Chernow’s biography of Hamilton has been so widely recommended that it cannot be more recommended.

显然，切尔诺的汉密尔顿传记已被如此广泛地推荐，以至于再推荐不过了。

Lately, I’ve read a fantastic biography of Bismarck.

最近，我读了一本精彩的俾斯麦传记。

I read a great biography of Gabriele D’Annunzio, the proto-fascist poet.

我读了一本关于原法西斯诗人加布里埃尔·邓南遮的伟大传记。

It could be a great way to read about personal histories if you don’t love — as I do — diplomatic or military — how old fashioned of me — economic history.

如果你不喜欢 —— 像我一样 —— 外交或军事 —— 我太老套了 —— 经济史，那么这可能是阅读个人历史的好方法。

I work 14, 15 hours every day, and the run is when I crystallize my best ideas.

我每天工作 14、15 个小时，跑步是我将最好的想法具体化的时候。

It’s very important to save some part of the day to really think and clear your head.

一天中留出一些时间来真正思考和理清思绪非常重要。

I always go in with problems and come out of the run with solutions.

我总是带着问题进来，然后带着解决方案出来。

God knows I work a lot, but I wouldn’t be able to work as I do if I didn’t sleep well.

天知道我工作很多，但如果我睡不好，我就无法像现在这样工作。

Not doing email on your bed, not doing work on your bed is absolutely essential for that.

为此，不要在床上写电子邮件、不要在床上做工作是绝对必要的。

That’s a relatively new development.

这是一个相对较新的发展。

I force myself to actually get up, turn on the coffee machine, open the windows, and only then think about my email.

我强迫自己真正站起来，打开咖啡机，打开窗户，然后才想起我的电子邮件。