Paul Graham on Ambition, Art, and Evaluating Talent (Ep. 186)

Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.

大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。

Today I’m here with Paul Graham.

今天我和保罗·格雷厄姆在一起。

Paul, welcome.

保罗，欢迎。

Thank you.

谢谢。

You’ve written several times that your wife, Jessica Livingstone, is a better judge of character than you are.

您多次写道，您的妻子杰西卡·利文斯通（Jessica Livingstone）比您更能判断性格。

What other areas of talent judgment is she better, or much better, than you?

她在人才判断的其他哪些方面比你更好或更好？

Practically everything to do with people.

几乎一切都与人有关。

She’s a real expert on people and social protocol — what to wear at events, what to say to someone, anything like that.

她是一个真正的人际交往和社交礼仪方面的专家——“在活动中穿什么，对某人说什么，诸如此类的事情。”

But you have all this data, so why can’t you learn from the data and from her to do as well as she can?

但你拥有所有这些数据，那么为什么你不能从数据和她身上学习，做得像她一样好呢？

What’s the binding constraint here in limiting someone as a judge of human affairs?

限制某人作为人类事务法官的约束力是什么？

Well, partly, I just don’t have as much natural ability, and partly, I just don’t care as much about these things.

嗯，部分原因是我没有那么多的天赋，部分原因是我不太关心这些事情。

The conversations we have are not “Paul, you can’t wear that.” They are like, “Paul, you can’t wear that.” I’m like, “Really?

我们的对话不是“保罗，你不能穿那个。”他们就像，“保罗，你不能穿那个。”我想，“真的吗？

Why not?

为什么不呢？

What’s wrong with this?” I just don’t care as much.

这有什么问题吗？”我只是不太关心。

But say, when you’re judging talent — Sam Altman, Patrick Collison — you’re judging people, right?

但是，当你评判人才时——萨姆·奥尔特曼、帕特里克·科里森——你是在评判人，对吗？

Of course, it’s the business plan, but much of it is the talent.

当然，这是商业计划，但很大程度上是人才。

Oh, it’s all the people.

哦，原来都是人啊。

The earlier you’re judging start-ups, the more you’re just judging the founders.

你越早评判初创企业，你就越只是评判创始人。

It’s like location for real estate.

这就像房地产的位置。

The founders are like that, so yes, sure.

创始人就是这样，所以是的，当然。

Which is why the earlier stage you invest, the more you want to have these people who are good judges of people.

这就是为什么你投资的早期阶段，你越希望拥有这些善于判断人的人。

If she’s better than you at human affairs, comparing you to other people, what exactly, in the smallest number of dimensions, are you better at than the other people?

如果她在人事方面比你强，那么你和其他人相比，在最小的维度上，你到底比其他人更擅长什么？

What am I better at?

我更擅长什么？

Yes.

是的。

What are you better at?

你更擅长什么？

You can’t be so terrible at this, right?

你不能在这方面表现得那么糟糕，对吧？

You mean to do with start-ups?

您的意思是与初创企业有关吗？

To do with people — how well they will do with their start-ups.

与人打交道——他们会如何处理他们的初创企业。

What’s the exact nature of your comparative advantage?

您的比较优势的确切性质是什么？

I can tell if people know what they’re talking about when they come and talk about some idea, especially some technical idea.

当人们来谈论一些想法，尤其是一些技术想法时，我可以判断他们是否知道他们在谈论什么。

I can tell if they know, if they actually understand the idea, or if they just have a reading-the-newspaper level of understanding of the thing.

我可以判断他们是否知道，他们是否真正理解这个想法，或者他们是否只是对事物有阅读报纸水平的理解。

How well can you judge determination?

你能如何判断决心？

Determination — it’s hard to judge by looking at the person.

决心 ——很难通过观察这个人来判断。

The way you would judge determination — because people act determined; people think they’re supposed to act determined.

你判断决心的方式 ——因为人们行事果断；人们认为他们应该采取坚决的行动。

No one walks into their Y Combinator interview thinking, “Well, I need to seem diffident.” Nobody thinks that.

没有人在参加 Y Combinator 面试时会想：“好吧，我需要显得很自信。”没有人这么认为。

They all think they’re supposed to seem tough, which is actually really painful and stressful.

他们都认为自己应该看起来很坚强，这实际上是非常痛苦和有压力的。

It’d be better if they just were themselves because someone trying to act tough — it’s so painful to watch.

如果他们只是做自己就好了，因为有人试图表现得强硬——看着真是痛苦。

It’s how they tell the story, or it’s what happened?

是他们讲述故事的方式，还是发生的事情？

No, it’s what they did in the story, right?

不，这就是他们在故事中所做的，对吧？

What they did in the story.

他们在故事中做了什么。

Something went wrong, and instead of giving up, they persevered.

出了问题，他们没有放弃，而是坚持了下来。

Why are there so few great founders in their 20s today, saying that they are —

为什么现在 20 多岁的伟大创始人很少有人说他们是 ——

Is that true, though?

但这是真的吗？

I’ve heard about that.

我听说过。

Ten, fifteen years ago, you had a large crop of people who, obviously, have become massive successes.

十年、十五年前，有一大批人显然已经取得了巨大的成功。

Today, it’s less clear.

今天，情况不太清楚。

Companies seem to be smaller.

公司似乎规模较小。

The important people seem to be older.

重要的人似乎都老了。

Sam Altman was important early on, but now he’s very, very, very important.

萨姆·奥尔特曼早期很重要，但现在他非常非常非常重要。

He’s what, 37, 38?

他是什么，37、38？

Something like that.

类似的事情。

Seems like more of a synthetic set of abilities we need.

看起来更像是我们需要的一组综合能力。

I’m not even sure this is true.

我什至不确定这是真的。

It could be that it’s not actually true, and that there’s something else going on.

可能这并不是真的，而且还有其他事情发生。

If you look at athletes, for example, athletes learned how to stay good for longer.

例如，如果你观察运动员，就会发现运动员学会了如何更长时间地保持良好状态。

You have people who are really international quality soccer players at age 34.

有些人在 34 岁的时候就已经是真正具有国际水准的足球运动员了。

That didn’t used to happen back in the days of Johan Cruyff, smoking cigarettes between halves.

在约翰·克鲁伊夫那个半场抽烟的时代，这种情况是不会发生的。

He didn’t last till 34.

他没坚持到34岁。

It might have seemed like all the good football players are 34, and it’s just an artifact of them lasting longer.

似乎所有优秀的足球运动员都已经 34 岁了，而这只是他们寿命更长的产物。

But the 20-year-old stars seem to have vanished.

但20岁的明星似乎都消失了。

There’s not a next Patrick Collison, who was evidently so.

显然，没有下一个帕特里克·科里森了。

Well, Patrick Collison probably didn’t seem to most people to be the big star, and you can prove this, because if he had, they would have invested in early Stripe rounds, and they didn’t.

好吧，帕特里克·科里森 (Patrick Collison) 在大多数人看来可能并不是大明星，你可以证明这一点，因为如果他是，他们就会投资 Stripe 的早期融资，但他们没有。

Anybody who claims they knew early on that Patrick Collison was going to be a big star — show me the equity.

任何声称自己很早就知道帕特里克·科里森将成为大明星的人——请告诉我公平性。

Okay, but there was Peter Thiel, there was Sequoia, there was yourself.

好吧，但是有彼得泰尔，有红杉，还有你自己。

A bunch of people knew, in fact, or strongly suspected.

一群人其实知道，或者强烈怀疑。

Sure, yes.

当然，是的。

Some people did, but certainly not everyone.

有些人这样做了，但肯定不是所有人。

I don’t know if this is true.

我不知道这是不是真的。

I’ll investigate this summer when we’re going to go back to YC and talk to some founders, and I’ll talk to the partners, and I’ll see what’s going on, because I had a mental note to check and see if this is actually true.

今年夏天，当我们要回到 YC 并与一些创始人交谈时，我会进行调查，我会与合作伙伴交谈，我会看看发生了什么，因为我心里有一个记录要检查，看看这是否属实。

There’s a Paul Graham worldview in your earlier essays, where you want to look for the great hackers, and a lot of the most important companies come from intriguing side projects.

你之前的文章中有保罗·格雷厄姆的世界观，你想寻找伟大的黑客，而许多最重要的公司都来自有趣的副业项目。

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

But if we want older people who are somewhat synthetic in their abilities, are those other principles still true?

但如果我们想要老年人的能力有所综合，那些其他原则仍然正确吗？

No, not necessarily.

不，不一定。

Not as true.

不那么真实。

Part of the reason you want to find young founders who’ve done stuff from side projects is that it guarantees the idea is not bullshit.

你想要找到做过业余项目的年轻创始人的部分原因是，这样可以保证这个想法不是废话。

Because if young founders sit down and try to think of a start-up idea, it’s more likely to be bullshit because they don’t have any experience of the world.

因为如果年轻的创始人坐下来试图想出一个创业想法，那很可能是废话，因为他们没有任何世界经验。

Why is venture capital such a small part of capital markets?

为什么风险投资在资本市场中只占如此小的一部分？

It’s big in tech, it’s somewhat big in biotech, but most other areas of the economy, you finance with debt or retained earnings or some other method.

它在科技领域很重要，在生物技术领域也有一定规模，但在大多数其他经济领域，你可以通过债务或留存收益或其他方法进行融资。

What determines where VC works and doesn’t work?

是什么决定了 VC 的作用和作用？

Well, growth.

嗯，成长。

You’ve got to have high growth rates because VCs — it’s so risky investing in start-ups, investing in these early-stage companies that maybe don’t even have any revenues.

你必须有高增长率，因为风险投资 ——投资初创企业风险太大，投资这些可能甚至没有任何收入的早期公司。

The only thing that can counterbalance the fact that half the companies completely fail is that the ones that don’t fail sometimes have astonishing returns.

唯一可以抵消一半公司完全失败这一事实的是，那些没有失败的公司有时会获得惊人的回报。

Can you imagine a future where there’s a lot more tech in terms of the level, but slower rates of growth, and VC quite dwindles because the growth rates aren’t there?

你能想象未来技术水平会更高，但增长速度会更慢，而风险投资会因为没有增长速度而大幅减少吗？

Or VC goes to some other area?

或者VC去其他领域？

Well, VC has been dwindling in the sense that they have smaller and smaller percentages of companies.

嗯，风险投资一直在萎缩，因为它们所占公司的比例越来越小。

If you go back and look at the stories from the 1980s, they would do these rounds where they would get 50 percent of the company.

如果你回顾一下 20 世纪 80 年代的故事，他们会在这些回合中获得公司 50% 的股份。

Even when YC started, they would get 30, and now it’s down to 10 in these rounds — God knows what they’re called; they keep renaming the rounds.

即使在 YC 刚开始的时候，他们也会得到 30 个，而现在在这些回合中已经减少到 10 个了 —— 天知道他们叫什么；他们不断地重新命名回合。

For a given round size, the amount of equity they get is much smaller than they used to.

对于给定的融资轮规模，他们获得的股权数量比以前少得多。

It at least seems we have a new, dynamic Microsoft that ships products quickly and innovates and, on the surface, appears to act like a start-up again.

至少我们似乎拥有了一个新的、充满活力的微软，它可以快速交付产品并进行创新，从表面上看，它似乎再次像一家初创公司。

How can that be true?

这怎么可能是真的呢？

We all know your famous essay about Microsoft culture.

我们都知道您关于微软文化的著名文章。

What has happened?

发生了什么事？

I did not say that they wouldn’t make money.

我并没有说他们不会赚钱。

But they’ve done more than make money.

但他们所做的不仅仅是赚钱。

They’ve impressed us with their speed.

他们的速度给我们留下了深刻的印象。

Well, I meant something very specific in that essay.

嗯，我在那篇文章中的意思非常具体。

Incidentally, I talk in that essay about how I was talking to a founder, and I was talking about how Microsoft was this threat.

顺便说一句，我在那篇文章中谈到了我如何与一位创始人交谈，以及微软如何构成这种威胁。

You can see he was clearly puzzled, like, how could Microsoft possibly be threatening?

你可以看到他显然很困惑，比如，微软怎么可能构成威胁？

I didn’t mention who the founder was, but it was actually Zuck.

我没有提到创始人是谁，但实际上是扎克。

It was Mark Zuckerberg, who was puzzled that Microsoft could be a threat.

马克·扎克伯格对微软可能成为威胁感到困惑。

In the early years of Sam Altman, what did you see in him other than determination?

在山姆·奥尔特曼的早年，除了决心之外，你在他身上看到了什么？

Because he’s not a technical guy in the sense of —

因为他不是一个意义上的技术人员——

He is a technical guy.

他是一个技术型的人。

He was a CS major.

他是一名计算机科学专业的学生。

But you’re not buying the software he programmed, right?

但你不会购买他编写的软件，对吗？

There’s something about what Sam Altman does that —

萨姆·奥尔特曼所做的事情有些道理 ——

Well, now he’s become a manager, but he knows how to program.

好吧，现在他成为了一名经理，但他知道如何编程。

But that’s not why his ventures have succeeded, right?

但这并不是他的冒险成功的原因，对吗？

Oh, no, he does a lot more than —

哦，不，他所做的远不止——

There’s some ability to put the pieces together.

有一定的能力将各个部分组合在一起。

Yes, but he’s not a nontechnical guy.

是的，但他不是一个不懂技术的人。

He’s not just some business guy.

他不仅仅是一个商人。

He’s a technical guy who also is very formidable, and that’s a good combination.

他是一个技术人员，同时也非常强大，这是一个很好的组合。

There’s a now-famous Sam tweet where he appears to repudiate his earlier advice of finding product-market fit early and then scaling, and saying, “Oh, maybe I was wrong saying that.” What OpenAI has done is not exactly that.

Sam 有一条现在很出名的推文，他似乎否认了他之前提出的尽早找到产品市场契合点然后扩大规模的建议，并说道：“哦，也许我这么说是错的。” OpenAI 所做的并不完全是这样。

Do you agree, disagree?

你同意、不同意吗？

Well, maybe OpenAI is a special case because you have to have giant warehouses full of GPUs.

好吧，也许 OpenAI 是一个特例，因为你必须拥有装满 GPU 的巨型仓库。

You can’t just mess around and throw something out there and see if it works.

你不能只是乱搞，把一些东西扔到那里看看它是否有效。

Maybe it requires some amount of advanced planning for something on that scale.

也许对于这种规模的事情需要一定程度的提前规划。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I don’t know what he meant by it, and I also don’t know what it’s like inside OpenAI, really.

我不知道他的意思，也不知道 OpenAI 内部到底是什么样的。

I don’t know either.

我也不知道。

Do you still take a dim view of solo founders?

您仍然对独立创始人持悲观态度吗？

Well, it’s harder.

好吧，这更难了。

I know I wouldn’t start a start-up alone because it’s just so much weight to bear to do something like that.

我知道我不会独自创办一家初创公司，因为做这样的事情要承受很大的负担。

But it’s very hard to find a partner as good as you are, right?

但要找到像你一样优秀的伴侣是非常困难的，对吧​​？

It’s harder and it’s easier.

这更难，也更容易。

You can just do it.

你就可以这么做。

Well, people should do some work.

好吧，人们应该做一些工作。

When I talk to people who are in their teens or early 20s about starting a start-up, I tell them, “Instead of sitting around thinking of start-up ideas, you should be working with other people on projects.

当我与十几岁或二十岁出头的人谈论创业时，我告诉他们，“你应该与其他人一起开展项目，而不是坐下来思考创业想法。

Then, you’ll get a start-up idea out of it that you probably never would have thought of, and you’ll get a co-founder too.” I wish people would do more of that.

然后，你会从中得到一个你可能从未想到过的创业想法，而且你也会找到一位联合创始人。”我希望人们能做更多这样的事情。

You can get co-founders — just work with people on projects.

你可以找到联合创始人——只需与人们一起开展项目即可。

You just can’t get co-founders instantly.

你只是无法立即找到联合创始人。

You’ve got to have some patience.

你必须有一些耐心。

Why is there not more ambition in the developed world?

为什么发达国家没有更大的雄心呢？

Say we wanted to boost ambition by 2X.

假设我们想将雄心壮志提高两倍。

What’s the actual constraint?

实际的约束是什么？

What stands in the way?

是什么阻碍了我们？

Boy, what a fabulous question.

男孩，真是个绝妙的问题。

I wish you’d asked me that an hour ago, so I could have had some time to think about it between now and then.

我希望你在一小时前问我这个问题，这样我从现在到那时就有时间考虑这个问题。

You’re clearly good at boosting ambition, so you’re pulling on some lever, right?

你显然很擅长增强野心，所以你正在拉动一些杠杆，对吧？

What is it you do?

你是做什么的？

Oh, okay.

哦好的。

How do I do it?

我该怎么做？

People are, for various reasons — for multiple reasons — they’re afraid to think really big.

人们出于各种原因 —— 出于多种原因 —— 他们不敢想得真正远大。

There are multiple reasons.

原因有多种。

One, it seems overreaching.

第一，这似乎太过分了。

Two, it seems like it would be an awful lot of work.

第二，这似乎是一项艰巨的工作。

As an outside person, I’m like an instructor in some fitness class.

作为一个局外人，我就像某个健身班的教练。

I can tell someone who’s already working as hard as they can, “All right, push harder.”

我可以告诉那些已经竭尽全力工作的人，“好吧，加倍努力。”

How much of what you do is reshuffling their networks?

你所做的工作中有多少是在重组他们的网络？

There are people with potential.

有潜力的人。

They’re in semi-average networks —

他们处于半平均网络中 ——

Wait.

等等。

That was such an interesting question.

这是一个非常有趣的问题。

We should talk about that some more because that really is an interesting question.

我们应该更多地讨论这个问题，因为这确实是一个有趣的问题。

Imagine how amazing it would be if all the ambitious people can be more ambitious.

想象一下，如果所有有抱负的人都能更加有抱负，那该是多么神奇。

That really is an interesting question.

这确实是一个有趣的问题。

There’s got to be more to it than just the fact that I don’t have to do the work.

这不仅仅是我不必做这项工作的事实。

I think a lot of it is reshuffling networks.

我认为其中很大一部分是网络的重组。

You need someone who can identify who should be in a better network.

您需要一个能够识别谁应该处于更好网络中的人。

You boost the total size of all networking that goes on, and you make sure those people with potential —

你扩大了所有正在进行的网络的总规模，并确保那些有潜力的人 -

By reshuffling networks, you mean introducing people to one another?

通过重新调整网络，你的意思是把人们介绍给彼此？

Of course.

当然。

Yes.

是的。

You pull them away from their old peers, who are not good enough for them, and you bring them into new circles, which will raise their sights.

你把他们从那些对他们来说不够优秀的老同事中拉出来，然后把他们带入新的圈子，这会提高他们的视野。

Eh, maybe.

呃，也许吧。

That is true.

确实如此。

When you read autobiographies, there’s often an effect when people go to some elite university after growing up in the middle of the countryside somewhere.

当你阅读自传时，你会发现人们在农村长大后进入了精英大学。

They suddenly become more excited because there’s a critical mass of like-minded people around.

他们突然变得更加兴奋，因为周围有大量志同道合的人。

But I don’t think that’s the main thing.

但我认为这不是主要的事情。

I mean, that is a big thing.

我的意思是，这是一件大事。

Think of it as the power of London in the 17th century.

可以将其视为 17 世纪伦敦的力量。

The Industrial Revolution happens further north, but the ideas, the science, in or near London, maybe Cambridge.

工业革命发生在更北的地方，但思想、科学却在伦敦或附近，也许是剑桥。

And Oxford.

还有牛津。

Those are the networks people are brought.

这些就是人们带来的网络。

Near London only in the sense that everything in England is near everything else by American standards.

靠近伦敦只是因为按照美国的标准，英国的一切都接近其他地方。

It’s not really that London was the center of ideas.

伦敦并不是真正的思想中心。

There were a lot of smart people there, but things were more spread out.

那里有很多聪明人，但事情却更加分散。

Be careful with English history there.

小心那里的英国历史。

It’s helping people see their ideas are bigger than they thought.

它帮助人们看到他们的想法比他们想象的更伟大。

Yes.

是的。

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

We often do this in YC interviews.

我们在 YC 采访中经常这样做。

People say you’re especially good at that.

人们说你在这方面特别擅长。

This is what the other people say.

这是其他人说的。

Well, that’s why I’m mulling over what actually goes on, because there is this skill there.

嗯，这就是为什么我在思考实际发生的事情，因为那里有这个技能。

The weird thing about YC interviews is, in a sense, they’re a negotiation.

YC 面试的奇怪之处在于，从某种意义上说，它们是一种谈判。

In a negotiation, you’re always saying, “Oh, I’m not going to pay a lot for that.

在谈判中，你总是说：“哦，我不会为此付出很多代价。

It’s terrible.

太可怕了。

It’s worthless.” Yet in YC interviews, the founders often walk out thinking, “Wow, our idea is a lot better than we thought,” just because of what we do.

这是毫无价值的。”然而，在 YC 的采访中，创始人在离开时常常会想，“哇，我们的想法比我们想象的要好得多”，只是因为我们所做的事情。

So, you think the 11th minute of an interview has very low value.

所以，你认为面试的第 11 分钟价值很低。

I’ve thought a lot about where the cutoff is.

我想了很多关于截止点在哪里的问题。

Like, where’s the point?

比如，重点在哪里？

If you made a graph, what’s your probability of changing your mind after minute number N?

如果你做了一个图表，你在第 N 分钟后改变主意的概率是多少？

After minute number one or two, the probability of changing your mind is pretty high.

在第一分钟或第二分钟之后，改变主意的可能性相当高。

I would say YC interviews could actually be seven minutes instead of ten minutes, but ten minutes is already almost insultingly short, so we kept it at ten.

我想说 YC 的采访实际上可以是七分钟而不是十分钟，但十分钟已经短得几乎令人侮辱，所以我们将其保持在十分钟。

We could have made it seven.

我们本可以达到七分。

I think there’s often a threshold of two, and then another threshold at about seven, and after that, it’s very tough for it to flip.

我认为通常有一个阈值是二，然后是另一个阈值大约是七，在那之后，它就很难翻转了。

Yes.

是的。

Although that doesn’t mean you’re always right.

尽管这并不意味着你总是对的。

It could just be, after three hours, you would still be wrong.

可能只是三个小时后，你仍然是错的。

It’s just not going to flip.

它只是不会翻转。

I didn’t say seven minutes is enough to tell, notice.

请注意，我并没有说七分钟就足以说明问题。

I said seven minutes is the point where you’re probably not going to change your mind.

我说过七分钟是你可能不会改变主意的时间点。

If it’s going somewhat badly, and the person is flipping positive at minute six, what is it that’s happening, both in the interview and in you?

如果事情进展得有些糟糕，而对方在第六分钟就变得积极起来，那么无论是在面试中还是在你身上，到底发生了什么？

If it changes from two to seven, uh —

如果从二变成七的话，呃 ——

Clearly, from zero to one or two, they get over nerves, or they adjust the sound volume.

显然，从零到一或二，他们会克服紧张，或者调整音量。

There are plenty of those stories.

这样的故事还有很多。

It’s probably that we misunderstood what they’re working on initially.

很可能我们最初误解了他们正在做的事情。

So, great idea, bad at presenting it?

那么，好主意，但不善于表达？

No, more like they’re near some idea that we’re familiar with, and we just assume they must be doing that idea.

不，更像是他们接近我们熟悉的某个想法，而我们只是假设他们一定在做那个想法。

And they say, “Oh, no, no, no, we’re not doing that.

他们说：“哦，不，不，不，我们不会那样做。

We’re doing this.” I’m like, “Oh, okay.

我们正在做这个。”我想，“哦，好吧。

Thank goodness.” Then, they get extra points because not only they’re not doing the stupid thing, but they understand that the stupid thing is stupid.

谢天谢地。”然后，他们会得到额外的分数，因为他们不仅没有做愚蠢的事情，而且他们明白愚蠢的事情就是愚蠢的。

They get extra credit for what we were subtracting for it in the past.

他们因我们过去扣除的部分而获得额外的功劳。

Who falls through the cracks in the YC process, as you’ve experienced it?

正如您所经历的那样，谁会在 YC 流程中陷入困境？

Well, YC — one of the reasons I’m so contemptuous of university admissions is that I am also in the admissions business.

嗯，YC ——我如此鄙视大学招生的原因之一是我也从事招生业务。

I am obsessed.

我很着迷。

We not only measure when we fail, but we’re obsessed with the failure cases.

我们不仅衡量失败的时间，而且还痴迷于失败案例。

YC has a list of all the companies that we’ve missed, that have applied to YC and we’ve turned down, and they’ve gone on to be successful.

YC 列出了我们错过的所有公司的名单，这些公司曾向 YC 提出申请，但我们拒绝了，但他们后来都取得了成功。

We spend a lot of time, like someone thinking about past injuries.

我们花了很多时间，就像一个人思考过去的伤害一样。

What’s the common element, though, now that you think of it?

那么，现在你想起来，共同点是什么？

When there are common elements, my God, do we act quickly to fix that.

当存在共同因素时，天啊，我们是否迅速采取行动来解决这个问题。

I remember early on, there was this company doing email, if you wanted to send mass emails.

我记得很早就有一家公司做电子邮件，如果你想发送大量电子邮件。

I forget what their name was.

我忘记他们叫什么名字了。

This was back when we were reading the applications.

这是我们阅读申请时的情况。

If the first reader gave it a sufficiently low grade, it would never be seen by anybody else.

如果第一个读者给它的评分足够低，那么其他人就永远不会看到它。

How did you get over your fear of flying?

你是如何克服对飞行的恐惧的？

Oh, really?

哦真的吗？

Did I already talk about this?

我已经谈过这个了吗？

Do you know the answer to this?

你知道这个问题的答案吗？

There are two or three places in your writing where you mentioned that you had a fear of flying, but you used the past tense, which implies you got over it, but you never told anyone how.

在你的文章中，有两三个地方提到你对飞行有恐惧，但你用的是过去时，这意味着你克服了它，但你从未告诉任何人如何克服。

Well, it’s a bizarre strategy.

嗯，这是一个奇怪的策略。

I learned how to hang glide, which sounds crazy.

我学会了如何悬挂滑翔，这听起来很疯狂。

That will do it, though, right?

不过这样就可以了，对吧？

If you’re afraid of flying, how could you learn how to hang glide?

如果你害怕飞行，你怎么能学会悬挂滑翔呢？

The answer is, you learn how to hang glide gradually.

答案是，你逐渐学习如何悬挂滑翔。

You start by just running along the flat.

你首先沿着公寓跑步。

If there’s a headwind, maybe you feel a little lift.

如果有逆风，也许你会感觉有点提升。

Then you go 10 feet up the hill, run as fast as you can, and you reach a total altitude above ground level of like a foot.

然后你爬上山 10 英尺，尽可能快地跑，然后你达到离地高度约一英尺的高度。

You’re not afraid when you’re a foot above the ground.

当你离地一英尺时，你就不会害怕。

You go out a little further up the hill until a month later, you’re jumping off a cliff with a hang glider on your back.

你往山上走得更远一点，直到一个月后，你背着悬挂式滑翔机从悬崖上跳下来。

What did you learn about start-ups and talent selection from that process?

您从这个过程中学到了什么关于初创企业和人才选拔的知识？

Boy, if I learned anything, I haven’t considered it until this moment.

天哪，如果我学到了什么的话，我直到这一刻才考虑过。

But you might have learned it quite well, just not articulated it.

但你可能已经学得很好，只是没有清晰地表达出来。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

You ask me these hard questions.

你问我这些难题。

I don’t have time to think about them.

我没有时间去想他们。

I don’t think I’ve ever consciously used anything I learned there.

我认为我从未有意识地使用过在那里学到的任何东西。

It was certainly convenient to be able to —

能够 ——确实很方便——

Do you see founders who go through a comparable process with something other than flying, and it’s like, “Oh, I get where you’re at, and here’s what you need to do next.”

你是否看到创始人在飞行以外的事情上经历了类似的过程，就像，“哦，我明白你现在的处境，这就是你下一步需要做的事情。”

Yes, a lot of technical-type founders hate the idea of doing sales and going and talking to people, and so you can tell them, “Look, just go do this.” You know, after a few months, they’ll be used to it.

是的，很多技术型创始人讨厌做销售、去与人交谈的想法，所以你可以告诉他们，“看，就去做吧。”你知道，几个月后，他们就会习惯的。

They may never like it.

他们可能永远不会喜欢它。

I would hate doing that myself now, but they can at least do it.

我现在不想自己这样做，但他们至少可以做到。

Were the Medici good venture capitalists, or do you give greater credit to the Florentine guilds?

美第奇家族是优秀的风险投资家，还是您更信任佛罗伦萨的行会？

I have no idea.

我不知道。

I need to learn more about the —

我需要更多地了解 ——

The guilds would run competitions.

行会会举办比赛。

The Medici would just pick the people they liked.

美第奇家族只会挑选他们喜欢的人。

They both have good records in different ways, but obviously, they’re competing models.

他们在不同方面都拥有良好的记录，但显然，他们是竞争模型。

You’re an economist.

你是一位经济学家。

You’ve read books about this stuff.

你读过关于这些东西的书。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

What do I know about the Medici?

我对美第奇家族了解多少？

COWEN: I think the Medici were overrated, and the guilds were more important, but that’s a debatable view.

考恩：我认为美第奇家族被高估了，行会更重要，但这是一个值得商榷的观点。

You could argue it either way.

无论哪种方式你都可以争论。

They could well be overrated.

他们很可能被高估了。

They were the ones who had all the publicity.

他们是拥有所有宣传的人。

I have no idea.

我不知道。

Your time spent at RISD and in Florence — how did it alter or affect your thoughts on software design and talent selection?

您在罗德岛设计学院和佛罗伦萨度过的时光——它如何改变或影响了您对软件设计和人才选拔的想法？

Man, if you asked how it affected my ideas about painting, I can give you an answer.

伙计，如果你问它如何影响我对绘画的想法，我可以给你答案。

We’ll get to that, but Florence was all about talent selection because how many people in quite a small area became both great and famous?

我们会谈到这一点，但佛罗伦萨的重点在于人才选拔，因为在一个很小的地区有多少人既伟大又出名？

One thing I remember — there was one moment I was sitting in Florence, and I realized I had gone to the wrong place.

我记得一件事——有那么一刻我坐在佛罗伦萨，我意识到我走错了地方。

Because I was studying Florentine history, all the buildings are right around you, and I found myself thinking, “Damn, Florence was New York City in 1450.”

因为我正在研究佛罗伦萨历史，所以所有的建筑都在你周围，我发现自己在想，“该死，佛罗伦萨是 1450 年的纽约市。”

That was 60,000 people, yes.

是的，那是 60,000 人。

That’s why it was good at art.

这就是为什么它擅长艺术。

It wasn’t some weird Florentine thing about art or some special Florentine sense of aesthetics.

这不是什么奇怪的佛罗伦萨艺术，也不是佛罗伦萨特殊的审美观。

They were just the most progressive city.

他们只是最进步的城市。

It’s really too bad that the far left has hijacked that word.

极左派劫持了这个词，真是太糟糕了。

It’s such a good word.

这是一个很好的词。

Maybe we can get it back.

也许我们可以把它找回来。

I remember thinking, “I’ve gone to the wrong place.” I went to the place where the puck used to be over hundreds of years ago.

我记得我当时想：“我走错地方了。”我去了几百年前冰球曾经所在的地方。

COWEN: You can learn a lot from studying where the puck used to be.

COWEN：通过研究冰球曾经所在的位置，你可以学到很多东西。

Oh, not really.

哦，不是真的。

Are you sure?

你确定吗？

The Academia was a pretty crappy art school.

学院是一所相当蹩脚的艺术学校。

Being in Florence itself had —

在佛罗伦萨本身就已经——

Oh, I can learn a lot from looking at the works, but I don’t have to go and live there.

哦，看作品我可以学到很多东西，但我不必去那里生活。

What is it you learned that was relevant for Y Combinator?

您了解到哪些与 Y Combinator 相关的内容？

Because you’re doing something comparable to what the Florentines did: picking a pretty small area, making it the absolute center for talent selection, a magnet that drew people in, and having a lot of winners.

因为你正在做的事情与佛罗伦萨人所做的类似：选择一个相当小的区域，使其成为人才选拔的绝对中心，吸引人们的磁石，并拥有很多获胜者。

You copied what you were living.

你复制了你的生活。

I had already learned that from Harvard.

我已经从哈佛学到了这一点。

Maybe you had to learn it twice.

也许你必须学习两次。

GRAHAM: No, no, no. I was already very well aware of this phenomenon, to the extent YC uses anything like that.

格雷厄姆：不，不，不。我已经非常清楚这种现象，甚至 YC 使用了类似的东西。

We were definitely thinking.

我们肯定在想。

YC was started within the convex hull of Harvard, like the places Harvard spread out through Cambridge, but YC’s original office was within it.

YC 是在哈佛的凸壳内开始的，就像哈佛通过剑桥分布的地方一样，但 YC 最初的办公室就在里面。

We’ve consciously tried to make YC the Harvard of start-ups.

我们有意识地努力让 YC 成为初创企业中的哈佛。

No question about that.

毫无疑问。

We had the model right there.

我们那里有模型。

Harvard’s very screwed up, as you know.

如你所知，哈佛一团糟。

You look at their admissions — how much is dean’s favorites and legacies and affirmative action?

你看看他们的招生 —— 迪恩的最爱、遗产和平权行动有多少？

It’s not Y Combinator.

这不是 Y Combinator。

They’re trying to build a coalition, and you’re just caring about picking winners.

他们试图建立一个联盟，而你只关心挑选赢家。

The thing is, though, all universities have an admissions process that’s corrupt in that way, except possibly Caltech.

但问题是，除了加州理工学院之外，所有大学的招生流程都存在腐败问题。

Caltech might actually do undergrad admissions properly.

加州理工学院实际上可能会正确地进行本科招生。

So, since they’re all messed up, Harvard does still have this draw compared to the others.

所以，既然他们都搞砸了，与其他大学相比，哈佛仍然有这个吸引力。

Does AI make programming even more like painting?

人工智能会让编程变得更像绘画吗？

God, what a question.

天哪，这是一个什么问题。

How do you make these questions?

你如何提出这些问题？

Does AI make programming more like painting?

人工智能是否让编程变得更像绘画？

I have no reason to believe that.

我没有理由相信这一点。

It might be true.

这可能是真的。

You’re piecing things together more, arguably, in this new post-GPT world.

可以说，在这个新的后 GPT 世界中，你正在更多地将事物拼凑在一起。

Well, what I was seeing when I said programming was like painting is that they’re both building something.

好吧，当我说编程就像绘画时，我看到的是它们都在构建一些东西。

You’re not building something any more with AI than when you were writing code by hand, so I would guess not.

与手工编写代码相比，你不再用人工智能来构建东西，所以我猜不会。

How far is Midjourney from “real art”?

中途离“真正的艺术”还有多远？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Is it more decrepit modernism?

它是更破旧的现代主义吗？

Is it a fantastic revolution?

这是一场奇妙的革命吗？

Or, as art — put aside the start-up angle — how do you view it?

或者说，作为艺术 —— 抛开启动角度 —— 你如何看待它？

Well, I see all these AI-generated images, and I don’t know which ones are from Midjourney and which ones aren’t.

好吧，我看到所有这些人工智能生成的图像，但我不知道哪些是来自《中途之旅》，哪些不是。

I can’t say for sure about Midjourney, but I have definitely seen some AI-generated stuff that looks amazing, that looks truly impressive.

我不能肯定地说《中途》，但我确实看到过一些人工智能生成的东西，它们看起来很神奇，看起来确实令人印象深刻。

As art.

作为艺术。

Not just that it looks impressive.

不仅仅是它看起来令人印象深刻。

It’s amazing as graphic design, but do you think it’s art in the same way that Rembrandt is art?

作为平面设计，它是令人惊叹的，但你认为它是艺术，就像伦勃朗是艺术一样吗？

This whole thing about what’s art and what isn’t?

关于什么是艺术、什么不是艺术的整个问题？

I think it’s all a matter of degree.

我认为这只是程度问题。

My crap carnation coffee mug is art.

我的蹩脚康乃馨咖啡杯是艺术品。

It’s just not very good art.

这只是不是很好的艺术。

There’s not some threshold, where above this threshold it’s art.

没有什么门槛，超过这个门槛就是艺术。

Everything people make is art, just to varying degrees of goodness.

人们创造的一切都是艺术，只是善意程度不同而已。

I can tell you, some of the things I’ve seen that were AI-generated, I’d be impressed if a person made them.

我可以告诉你，我见过的一些东西是人工智能生成的，如果有人制作它们，我会印象深刻。

That probably is over your threshold.

这可能超出了你的阈值。

If you’re good at talent selection, who is an underrated painter and why?

如果你擅长选才，那么谁是被低估的画家，为什么？

Ah, wow.

啊，哇。

Boy, there is a topic I think about a lot.

男孩，有一个话题我想了很多。

There’s a bunch of different reasons people can be underrated.

人们被低估的原因有很多。

Almost all good artists are underrated.

几乎所有优秀的艺术家都被低估了。

I agree.

我同意。

It sounds weird, but if you look at where the money’s spent at auction, it’s almost all fashionable contemporary crap because if you think about how prices in very high-end art are set, they’re auction prices.

这听起来很奇怪，但如果你看看拍卖会上的钱花在哪里，你会发现几乎都是时尚的当代垃圾，因为如果你考虑一下非常高端艺术品的价格是如何设定的，它们就是拍卖价格。

How many people does it take to generate an auction price?

需要多少人才能产生拍卖价格？

Two.

二。

Just two.

只有两个。

So, you have boneheaded Russians who want to have a Picasso on their wall so people will think they’re legit, or hedge fund managers’ wives who’ve been told to buy impressive art to hang in their loft so when people come over, they’ll say, “Oh, look, they’ve got a Damien Hirst.”

所以，有些愚蠢的俄罗斯人想在墙上挂一幅毕加索的画，这样人们就会认为他们是合法的，或者是对冲基金经理的妻子被告知要买一些令人印象深刻的艺术品挂在他们的阁楼上，这样当人们过来时，他们会说，“哦，看，他们有达米恩·赫斯特的画。”

Yes.

是的。

Old masters can be, I wouldn’t say cheap, but I would say radically underpriced.

我不会说老大师的作品很便宜，但我会说价格严重低估。

A couple hundred thousand.

几十万。

Or even less for some good ones.

或者对于一些好的人来说甚至更少。

Yes, I know because I buy them.

是的，我知道，因为我买了它们。

I used to be annoyed by this, and now I think it’s the most delightful thing in the world because there’s all this loose money sloshing around, and so-called contemporary art is like this sponge that just absorbs all of it.

我曾经对此感到恼火，现在我认为这是世界上最令人愉快的事情，因为所有这些松散的钱都在四处晃动，而所谓的当代艺术就像一块海绵，可以吸收所有这些。

There’s none left.

没有了。

Some of the things I buy, I am the only bidder.

我买的一些东西，我是唯一的竞标者。

I get it for the reserve price.

我以保留价购买。

No one else in the world wants it, or even knows that it’s being sold, so I am delighted about this.

世界上没有其他人想要它，甚至不知道它正在被出售，所以我对此感到很高兴。

If you think that something has gone wrong in the history of art, and you tried to explain that in as few dimensions as possible, what’s your account of what went wrong?

如果你认为艺术史上出了什么问题，并且你试图在尽可能少的维度上解释它，你对出了什么问题的解释是什么？

Oh, I can explain this very briefly.

哦，我可以非常简短地解释这一点。

Brand and craft became divorced.

品牌和工艺脱节了。

It used to be that the best artists were the best craftspeople.

过去，最好的艺术家就是最好的工匠。

Once art started to be reproduced in newspapers and magazines and things like that, you could create a brand that wasn’t based on quality.

一旦艺术开始在报纸、杂志和类似的东西上转载，你就可以创建一个不以质量为基础的品牌。

So, you think it’s mass media causing the divorce between brand and craft?

那么，您认为是大众媒体造成了品牌与工艺的分离吗？

It certainly helps.

这当然有帮助。

Then talent’s responding accordingly.

然后人才会做出相应的反应。

Fundamentally, what went wrong?

从根本上来说，哪里出了问题？

You invent some shtick, right?

你发明了一些技巧，对吗？

Right.

正确的。

And then — technically, it’s called a signature style — you paint with this special shtick.

然后 ——从技术上来说，它被称为签名风格 ——你用这种特殊的技巧进行绘画。

If someone can get some ball rolling, some speculative ball rolling, which dealers specialize in, then someone buys the painting with your shtick and hangs it on the wall in their loft in Tribeca.

如果有人可以进行一些交易，一些投机性的交易，这是经销商专门从事的，那么有人就会用你的技巧购买这幅画，并将其挂在他们位于翠贝卡的阁楼的墙上。

And people come in and say, “Oh, my goodness, that’s a so and so,” which they recognize because they’ve seen this shtick.

人们进来说，“哦，天哪，那是某某人”，他们认出这一点，因为他们见过这种伎俩。

COWEN: Say, if we have modernism raging in the 1920s, and the ’20s mass media is radio for the most part —

COWEN：假设现代主义在 1920 年代肆虐，而 20 年代的大众媒体大部分是广播 —

No, no, no, newspapers were huge.

不不不，报纸很大。

Modernism was well —

现代主义很好——

But not for showing paintings, right?

但不是为了展示画作，对吗？

There’s no color in the papers.

报纸上没有颜色。

You had to be —

你必须是——

Well, the 1920s were good enough to make painting like Cezanne fashionable.

好吧，20 年代足以让像塞尚这样的绘画变得流行起来。

It was just about getting going in the 1920s.

20 世纪 20 年代才刚刚开始。

Why can’t we build good British country homes anymore?

为什么我们不能再建造优质的英国乡村住宅了？

COWEN: Or do you think we can?

COWEN：或者你认为我们可以吗？

Well, there’s nothing stopping you —

好吧，没有什么可以阻止你 ——

But it doesn’t happen, right?

但它不会发生，对吧？

— except the planning people.

—— 规划人员除外。

Do you know anything about building houses in England?

你知道在英国建房子的事吗？

You just cannot build.

你就是无法建造。

It’s impossibly difficult.

这是不可能的困难。

It’s one of the worst countries, right?

这是最糟糕的国家之一，对吗？

Well, it’s the reason it looks so nice here.

嗯，这就是这里看起来如此漂亮的原因。

Yes.

是的。

If they had America’s zoning rules here, the entire countryside would be plastered with houses.

如果这里有美国的分区规则，整个乡村都会布满房屋。

You wouldn’t have any fields left at all because the difference in value between agricultural and building land — it’s like, God, 100X or something like that, and this place is small.

你根本不会剩下任何田地，因为农业用地和建筑用地之间的价值差异 ——就像，上帝，100 倍或类似的东西，而且这个地方很小。

Yes, but there are new buildings, say, in Cambridge, many other parts of Britain, and the new buildings are not country homes.

是的，但是，比如说，在剑桥和英国的许多其他地方都有新建筑，而且这些新建筑不是乡村住宅。

Yet everyone, on average, is wealthier.

然而，平均而言，每个人都更富有。

Why the change?

为什么要改变？

Wealthier than where?

比哪里有钱？

Wealthier than Britain in the old days.

比以前的英国还富裕。

Even before the railway, you have large numbers of country homes, and most country homes being built when living standards were pathetically low.

甚至在铁路出现之前，就有大量的乡村住宅，而且大多数乡村住宅都是在生活水平低得可怜的时候建造的。

A country house has got to have a certain amount of land around it.

乡村别墅周围必须有一定数量的土地。

You can’t just have them plastered down a street.

你不能只是把它们贴在街上。

It would look wrong.

看起来会是错误的。

You want a different style of architecture or something like that.

您想要不同风格的建筑或类似的东西。

There is a place where they build big houses.

有一个地方，他们建造大房子。

No, neighborhoods are worse yet.

不，社区更糟。

There are nice individual homes, but is there any truly beautiful neighborhood built after 1950?

确实有不错的独立住宅，但 1950 年之后有真正美丽的社区吗？

Where would it be?

会在哪里呢？

In any country, put aside Asia?

除了亚洲以外，还有哪个国家呢？

No, in Palo Alto, there are neighborhoods of houses built by this guy called Eichler, this developer who hired some of the best midcentury architects.

不，在帕洛阿尔托，有一些住宅区是由这个名叫艾希勒的人建造的，这个开发商聘请了一些最好的中世纪建筑师。

And arguably, those neighborhoods are good, although they messed up the trees.

可以说，这些社区是好的，尽管它们弄乱了树木。

When were those built?

那些是什么时候建造的？

’50s and ’60s.

50 年代和 60 年代。

Okay, but that’s 70 years ago.

好吧，但那是 70 年前的事了。

Now, I mean, we haven’t done anything in 70 years?

现在，我的意思是，我们已经 70 年没有做任何事情了？

What’s your model of that?

你的模型是什么？

I’m sure someone is building some good houses somewhere.

我确信有人正在某个地方建造一些好房子。

The point is, you don’t really need to, and so it only happens by accident.

关键是，你并不真的需要这样做，所以它只会偶然发生。

The developers mostly are thinking, “We need to just turn this land into houses as soon as possible.

开发商大多在想，“我们需要尽快把这块土地变成房子。

The buyers don’t have any taste.

买家没有任何品味。

We don’t need to sweat that, so we’ll just build random houses that look big and have large master bedrooms.

我们不需要为此担心，所以我们只需建造看起来很大并且有很大主卧室的随机房屋。

People will buy them.

人们会购买它们。

We’ll get our capital back and go on and do the next one.”

我们将收回资金并继续进行下一项工作。”

You get to go back in time.

你必须回到过去。

Your health is guaranteed, and you know whichever languages you might need, and you spend six months somewhere safe.

您的健康得到保证，您知道您可能需要的任何语言，并且您可以在安全的地方度过六个月。

Your safety is guaranteed.

您的安全有保障。

Where do you choose?

你选择哪里？

I often think about this question.

我经常思考这个问题。

You seem like someone who often thinks about this question.

看来你是一个经常思考这个问题的人。

Yes, sadly, the way I think about it is, I keep trying to escape from the obvious answer, and I don’t manage to, because the obvious answer to that is Athens, right?

是的，可悲的是，我的想法是，我一直试图逃避明显的答案，但我没有成功，因为明显的答案是雅典，对吗？

Which is, that’s where everyone would pick.

也就是说，这是每个人都会选择的地方。

It’s not what I would pick, but what’s your choice number two, then?

这不是我会选择的，但你的第二个选择是什么？

I’ll tell you mine, I think.

我想我会告诉你我的。

Well, there are things where I am obsessed with the mystery of what the hell was going on in Dark Age Europe.

好吧，有些事情让我着迷于黑暗时代欧洲到底发生了什么之谜。

I’m deliberately using the term “Dark Age” because they’re trying to outlaw it.

我故意使用“黑暗时代”这个词，因为他们试图取缔它。

COWEN: It’s correct, I think.

COWEN：我认为这是正确的。

If the term “Dark Ages” hadn’t been invented already, that would be a fabulous invention to describe that period.

如果“黑暗时代”这个词还没有被发明出来，那么这将是描述那个时期的一个神话般的发明。

Yes, sure, new things were getting invented.

是的，当然，新事物正在被发明。

Some people were doing good things just like always happens.

就像往常一样，有些人在做好事。

But it was as bad as things have been.

但情况和以前一样糟糕。

There are so few records, nobody knows how things happened.

记录太少，没人知道事情是怎么发生的。

You want to go to Northumbria or northern France?

您想去诺森布里亚或法国北部吗？

Or where do you want to be?

或者你想去哪里？

No, no.

不，不。

Dark Ages — you’ve picked the era, now give us the spot.

黑暗时代 — 你已经选择了时代，现在把位置让给我们。

Like Provence.

就像普罗旺斯一样。

Provence?

普罗旺斯？

Provence in 600.

600年的普罗旺斯。

What was going on?

发生了什么事？

What was going on in Provence in 600?

600年的普罗旺斯发生了什么？

I would be very interested to see that.

我很有兴趣看到这一点。

Almost like morbid curiosity.

几乎就像病态的好奇心。

I wouldn’t learn as much as I would in going to Athens, but I just really want to know what was going on.

我不会像去雅典那样学到很多东西，但我真的很想知道发生了什么。

I’m a big fan of morbid curiosity, by the way.

顺便说一句，我非常喜欢病态的好奇心。

It’s the best kind of curiosity, in many cases.

在很多情况下，这是最好的好奇心。

I can tell.

我可以告诉。

I would pick the Aztec Empire before the Spanish arrived.

我会选择西班牙人到来之前的阿兹特克帝国。

I feel I have vague glimpses of what ancient Athens was like.

我感觉我隐约看到了古代雅典的样子。

There are still Greek ruins.

至今仍有希腊遗迹。

The Europeans marveled at the cities they saw, and they burnt all the books, and I think I would learn more by somewhere more strange.

欧洲人对他们所看到的城市感到惊叹，他们烧毁了所有的书，我想我会在更奇怪的地方学到更多。

Maybe, maybe.

也许，也许。

The reason I’m interested in medieval Europe is, it’s where our world came from — the clocks we use, the writing system, all the clothes eventually evolved from that.

我对中世纪欧洲感兴趣的原因是，它是我们世界的起源——我们使用的时钟、书写系统、所有的衣服最终都是从那里演变而来的。

The reason I’m interested — I long ago realized that the medieval period wasn’t a dip.

我感兴趣的原因 —— 我很久以前就意识到中世纪时期并不是衰退期。

It wasn’t like there was this high level of civilization, and then it dropped down for a while, and then it rose back up again.

并不是文明程度这么高，然后下降一段时间，然后又上升起来。

Did Rome have to fall?

罗马必须陷落吗？

Or can you imagine a path where Rome has an industrial revolution, and we save ourselves 700 or however many centuries of time?

或者你能想象一条道路：罗马发生工业革命，而我们可以节省 700 或任意几个世纪的时间？

Like you need the fragmentation to get the competition for Britain to become significant?

就像你需要碎片化才能让英国的竞争变得更加激烈？

Maybe, maybe.

也许，也许。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Oh, 2,000 years is a long time, or even 1,700 years.

噢，2000年是很长的时间了，甚至1700年了。

Actually, Roman was half decent —

其实罗曼还算不错的 ——

Because China never falls.

因为中国永远不会衰落。

— until 200, so, 1,500 years.

— 直到 200 年，即 1,500 年。

But 1,500 years — things could have changed a lot.

但 1,500 年 ——事情可能会发生很大变化。

But did they in China?

但他们在中国吗？

Chinese Empire never collapses.

中华帝国永远不会崩溃。

It takes many forms, many dynasties, but it ends up stalling.

它有多种形式、多个朝代，但最终都停滞不前。

So maybe the collapse of the Roman Empire was one of the best things that could have happened, for Europe, at least.

因此，罗马帝国的崩溃也许是可能发生的最好的事情之一，至少对欧洲来说是这样。

I’m sure people didn’t think so at the time.

我相信当时人们并不这么认为。

People were thinking at the time, “It didn’t have to be this bad.” I don’t know.

当时人们在想：“事情本来不必这么糟糕。”我不知道。

Neither of us knows about this kind of thing.

我们谁也不知道这种事情。

Looking forward, how optimistic are you about the future of the UK?

展望未来，您对英国的未来有多乐观？

No real wage growth since 2008, no real productivity growth for as many years.

自 2008 年以来，实际工资没有增长，实际生产率也连续多年没有增长。

What’s up, and what’s the path out of that?

发生了什么事，出路是什么？

I am optimistic because they still have a gear that they haven’t shifted into.

我很乐观，因为他们仍然有尚未进入的状态。

I suppose I’ll really have gotten native when I say “we” instead of “they.”

我想当我说“我们”而不是“他们”时，我真的会变得很自然。

But you grew up in Pittsburgh, right?

但你是在匹兹堡长大的，对吧？

Near Pittsburgh.

匹兹堡附近。

Yes, but I’m British by birth.

是的，但我出生时就是英国人。

Does that count?

这算吗？

Are you really British, or your parents were diplomats here?

你真的是英国人吗？或者你的父母是这里的外交官？

No, no, no. Yes, I’m really British.

不，不，不。是的，我确实是英国人。

You’re really British?

你真的是英国人吗？

Yes, yes.

是的，是的。

Just ask HMRC.

问问英国税务海关总署就知道了。

As far as they’re concerned, I never left.

对他们而言，我从未离开过。

HMRC is the British IRS.

HMRC 是英国国税局。

It’s about the same as Mississippi.

和密西西比州差不多。

It’s preposterous, I know.

我知道这很荒谬。

Imagine the potential there.

想象一下那里的潜力。

Imagine the potential.

想象一下潜力。

You don’t feel that way about Mississippi, necessarily?

你对密西西比州不一定有这种感觉吗？

No, I think Mississippi’s probably already up close to its full potential.

不，我认为密西西比州可能已经接近其全部潜力。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I’ve never actually been there.

我从来没有真正去过那里。

I shouldn’t say things like that.

我不应该说这样的话。

Why and how did so many things here end up undercapitalized?

为什么以及如何这里有这么多的事情最终资本不足？

The water utilities, the NHS — it seems to be a consistent pattern.

自来水公司、NHS——这似乎是一个一致的模式。

That could make us more pessimistic because the flow numbers don’t reflect the fact that capital maintenance is even worse than we had thought.

这可能会让我们更加悲观，因为流量数字并没有反映出资本维护比我们想象的还要糟糕的事实。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

You’re an economist.

你是一位经济学家。

I don’t know what the term capital maintenance means.

我不知道资本维护这个词是什么意思。

But you’re a British person, I’m told.

但有人告诉我，你是英国人。

Undercapitalized — I don’t know what these things mean.

资本不足 —— 我不知道这些是什么意思。

They’ve been postponed.

他们被推迟了。

The NHS is run by the government, so things run by governments are often bad.

NHS是由政府管理的，所以政府管理的事情往往很糟糕。

Although the NHS seems to be pretty good.

虽然NHS看起来还不错。

Even though people attack it, it’s a lot more civilized than the American system.

尽管有人攻击它，但它比美国的制度文明得多。

How long it takes an ambulance to arrive if you call one up?

如果您打电话叫救护车，需要多长时间才能到达？

Well, that’s only recently got bad.

嗯，这只是最近才变得糟糕。

That’s just in the last couple of years.

这只是最近几年的事情。

That’s what undercapitalization means.

这就是资本不足的含义。

You keep on borrowing against the future.

你继续以未来为抵押借款。

You don’t plow resources back in, and then at some point you don’t have anymore.

你不会重新投入资源，但到了某个时候你就不再拥有资源了。

Actually, when things get bad enough, they fix things.

事实上，当事情变得足够糟糕时，他们就会解决问题。

This place is not run by the kind of yahoos that America is.

这个地方不是由美国那样的雅虎经营的。

It may be a small country, but people running things — they’re not just boneheaded political appointees.

它可能是一个小国家，但管理事物的人——他们不仅仅是愚蠢的政治任命者。

When things are wrong, they notice they’re wrong, and they fix them.

当事情出错时，他们会注意到自己错了，并加以解决。

This is a very old country.

这是一个非常古老的国家。

That’s another reason it’s not going to tank.

这是它不会坦克的另一个原因。

They’ve been through some bad stuff before.

他们以前经历过一些糟糕的事情。

There have been ups and downs.

有起有落。

Are you an optimist about the city of San Francisco?

您对旧金山市持乐观态度吗？

Not the area, the city.

不是地区，是城市。

Yes, I am.

我是。

Tell us why.

告诉我们原因。

I can’t tell you because there are all sorts of things happening behind the scenes to fix the problem.

我不能告诉你，因为幕后发生了各种各样的事情来解决这个问题。

In politics, you mean, or in tech start-ups?

你是说在政治领域，还是在科技初创企业？

No, no, no, politics.

不不不，政治。

The problems with San Francisco are entirely due to a small number of terrible politicians.

旧金山的问题完全是少数糟糕政客造成的。

It’s all because Ed Lee died.

这一切都是因为艾德·李死了。

The mayor, Ed Lee, was a reasonable person.

市长艾德·李是一个通情达理的人。

Up till the point where Ed Lee died, San Francisco seemed like a utopia.

在艾德·李去世之前，旧金山看起来就像一个乌托邦。

It was like when Gates left Microsoft, and things rapidly reverted to the mean.

就像盖茨离开微软时一样，事情很快就恢复了正常。

Although in San Francisco’s case, way below the mean, and so it’s not that it didn’t take that much to ruin San Francisco.

尽管就旧金山而言，远远低于平均水平，所以并不是说不需要那么多就能毁掉旧金山。

It’s really, if you just replaced about five supervisors, San Francisco would be instantly a fabulously better city.

事实上，如果你只更换大约五名主管，旧金山就会立即成为一个更好的城市。

Isn’t it the voters you need to replace?

不就是你需要更换的选民吗？

Those people got elected, reelected.

这些人当选，连任。

Well, the reason San Francisco fundamentally is so broken is that the supervisors have so much power, and supervisor elections, you can win by a couple hundred votes.

嗯，旧金山之所以如此破碎，根本上是因为监管者拥有如此大的权力，而监管者选举，你可以以几百票获胜。

All you need to do is have this hard core of crazy left-wing supporters who will absolutely support you, no matter what, and turn out to vote.

你需要做的就是拥有这群疯狂的左翼支持者的核心，他们无论如何都会绝对支持你，并投票。

Now, we’re in 2023.

现在，我们已经到了 2023 年。

Say, two or three years from now, what do you think the regulation of AI will look like?

比如说，两三年后，您认为人工智能的监管会是什么样子？

Oh, God knows.

哦，天知道。

You keep asking me questions I have no idea about.

你总是问我一些我不知道的问题。

You have plenty of ideas.

你有很多想法。

You know as much as anyone, I suspect.

我怀疑你知道的和其他人一样多。

No, that’s not true.

不，那不是真的。

That is not true.

那不是真的。

I really have no idea what AI regulation will look like, or even should look like, which is an easier question.

我真的不知道人工智能监管会是什么样子，甚至不知道应该是什么样子，这是一个更简单的问题。

Here’s an easier question, yes.

这是一个更简单的问题，是的。

There is a broadly tech community in the Bay Area.

湾区有一个广泛的科技社区。

If you said I had to make up the regulations for AI this afternoon, it would be really hard.

如果你说我今天下午必须补一下AI的规定，那就真的很难了。

I agree.

我同意。

That’s how far away I am from being able to answer that question on the spot.

这就是我距离能够当场回答这个问题还有多远。

I couldn’t even figure it out in a day.

我什至一天都无法弄清楚。

Like when it should be modular, or when there should be a regulation on AI is a thing that itself is intractable.

比如什么时候应该模块化，或者什么时候应该对人工智能进行监管，这本身就是一件棘手的事情。

I’ll tell you one meta fact though.

不过，我会告诉你一个元事实。

There was a guy on Twitter — I think his name was Rob Miles — who said that trying to make safe AI will be like trying to make a secure operating system.

Twitter 上有一个人 ——我想他的名字是 Rob Miles——他说试图制造安全的人工智能就像试图制造一个安全的操作系统一样。

Some parts of it, yes.

其中某些部分，是的。

Secure operating systems are like that.

安全操作系统就是这样。

I’m worried about AI because you’re not going to be able to figure out — whatever the regulations are, they’ll be wrong, I’ll tell you that.

我担心人工智能，因为你无法弄清楚 —— 无论法规是什么，它们都会是错误的，我会告诉你这一点。

They’ll be overregulated in some ways, and miss and just have huge holes in others.

他们在某些方面会受到过度监管，而在其他方面却会错过并存在巨大漏洞。

There’s a Bay Area tech community.

有一个湾区科技社区。

At least in the not-too-distant past, they agreed about many things, but very recently, it seems, on AI, there’s quite a divergence of views.

至少在不久的过去，他们在很多事情上都达成了共识，但最近在人工智能方面，似乎存在相当大的分歧。

People who are very, very worried: “Oh, it’s going to kill us all in the world.” People who say, “Oh, there are problems, but this is going to be great.”

人们非常非常担心：“哦，这会杀死世界上我们所有人。”人们会说：“哦，确实有问题，但这会很棒。”

It’s probably which aspect of the problem they choose to focus on.

这可能是他们选择关注问题的哪个方面。

You could focus on either one.

您可以专注于其中任何一个。

If you focus on how it could be good, there are all sorts of exciting things to discover, and you discover lots of genuine ways it could be good.

如果你专注于如何让它变得更好，就会发现各种各样令人兴奋的事情，并且你会发现很多真正让它变得更好的方法。

If you focus on how it could be bad, it’s true there, too.

如果你关注它可能会变得怎样糟糕，那也是如此。

So it could be either.

所以也可能是这样。

Yes.

是的。

That’s worrying.

这令人担忧。

That in itself is worrying.

这本身就令人担忧。

Why hasn’t Lisp been more successful?

为什么 Lisp 没有取得更大的成功？

Or do you think it has?

或者你认为有吗？

Well, Clojure is a dialect of Lisp, and Clojure’s very successful, so it’s been successful in that respect.

嗯，Clojure 是 Lisp 的一种方言，而且 Clojure 非常成功，所以它在这方面是成功的。

There’s another way it’s been successful.

还有另一种方法是成功的。

Some languages that are not considered dialects of Lisp, like JavaScript — if you showed JavaScript to people in 1970, they would say, “This is a Lisp.

有些语言不被认为是 Lisp 的方言，比如 JavaScript ——如果你在 1970 年向人们展示 JavaScript，他们会说，“这是 Lisp。

Except for the syntax, this is a Lisp.” It’s literally successful through Clojure.

除了语法之外，这是一个 Lisp。”通过 Clojure，它确实取得了成功。

It’s de facto successful through JavaScript.

事实上通过 JavaScript 已经成功了。

Is AI-generated programming going to vindicate you on Lisp over time, or cousins of Lisp?

随着时间的推移，人工智能生成的编程是否会证明你对 Lisp 或 Lisp 的表亲的看法是正确的？

No, no.

不，不。

Because the AI doesn’t care about the notation, right?

因为人工智能不关心符号，对吗？

It does.

确实如此。

It does?

是吗？

Because it’s trained based on the amount of code that’s out there.

因为它是根据现有代码量进行训练的。

But you could train it on something more like Lisp if you wanted to.

但如果你愿意的话，你可以用更像 Lisp 的东西来训练它。

You can’t.

你不能。

You have to train on actual examples people have written.

你必须根据人们写的实际例子进行训练。

But you have AI write some code in a perpetual motion machine, train other AIs on that code, and converge to something better, better, better.

但是你让人工智能在永动机中编写一些代码，用该代码训练其他人工智能，然后收敛到更好、更好、更好的东西。

No?

不？

There was some research paper recently, where they trained an AI on the output of AIs, and it converges on crap.

最近有一些研究论文，他们根据人工智能的输出来训练人工智能，但结果却是垃圾。

Maybe there’ll be some solution because it is a very rapidly evolving field, but I think you have to have a large corpus, initially, of examples written in the language.

也许会有一些解决方案，因为这是一个发展非常迅速的领域，但我认为你必须首先拥有一个用该语言编写的大型语料库。

Other than hackers and hacking, what other human activities are what you have called high-cost interruption?

除了黑客和黑客攻击之外，还有哪些人类活动是您所说的高成本干扰？

That is, if you’re interrupted, you lose your train of thought, have to start all over again.

也就是说，如果你被打断，你就会失去思路，必须重新开始。

Oh, math, I think must be like that.

哦，数学，我想一定是这样的。

I think anything.

我想什么都可以。

Painting — yes, or no?

绘画 — 是还是不是？

Not as much in my experience, not as much.

根据我的经验，没有那么多，没有那么多。

You don’t have to think ahead as much in painting.

在绘画中你不必考虑太多。

It’s annoying to be interrupted, no matter what, but it doesn’t absolutely destroy you, like it does in the middle of writing a program or something.

无论如何，被打扰是很烦人的，但它不会完全摧毁你，就像在编写程序或其他东西的过程中那样。

You don’t build a big mental model of something in your head when you’re painting.

当你绘画时，你不会在头脑中建立一个大的心理模型。

That’s what it is.

就是这样。

It’s when you’ve got this giant house of cards in your head.

当你脑子里有了这座巨大的纸牌屋时。

That’s when you get destroyed by an interruption.

那就是你被干扰摧毁的时候。

Do you think kids today spend too much or too little time learning high-cost interruption activities?

您认为现在的孩子在学习高成本干扰活动上花费的时间太多还是太少？

Do they spend too much or too little time working —

他们工作的时间是太多还是太少 —

Like, are we underinvesting in high-cost interruption activities?

比如，我们对高成本中断活动的投资是否不足？

Well, if you think about what it’s like in schools, kids are constantly being interrupted, and they always have been.

好吧，如果你想想在学校里的情况，你会发现孩子们经常被打扰，而且他们一直都是这样。

Of course.

当然。

So, whatever the answer is, it’s not going to be kids these days.

所以，无论答案是什么，现在都不会是孩子了。

It will be a statement about school for centuries.

这将是几个世纪以来关于学校的声明。

Kids have such short attention spans.

孩子们的注意力持续时间很短。

The one thing they can’t do is things that are big and long.

他们不能做的一件事就是又大又长的事情。

I think if you said, “Okay, you have five hours to sit in a quiet room and build something,” I don’t think they’d be up to it, anyway.

我想如果你说，“好吧，你有五个小时坐在一个安静的房间里建造一些东西”，我认为他们无论如何也做不到。

Our last segment is what I call the Paul Graham production function, which is how you got to be Paul Graham.

我们的最后一段是我所说的保罗·格雷厄姆生产函数，这就是你如何成为保罗·格雷厄姆的原因。

Would you major in philosophy again at Cornell, if you were doing it all over?

如果你重来一次，你会在康奈尔大学再次主修哲学吗？

No, I would not major in philosophy.

不，我不会主修哲学。

Why not?

为什么不呢？

Didn’t it allow you to think at a very general level?

难道它没有让你在一个非常普遍的层面上思考吗？

Well, it’s hard to say.

嗯，这很难说。

It’s hard to say.

很难说。

It’s good to be able to take ideas and flip them around like a Rubik’s Cube, and take them apart, and notice the two parts are the same shape or something like that, but I don’t think I actually learned that in philosophy classes.

能够接受想法并像魔方一样翻转它们，然后将它们拆开，并注意到两个部分是相同的形状或类似的东西，这是很好的，但我认为我实际上并没有在哲学课上学到这一点。

I think I would’ve learned that in classes about anything hard.

我想我会在课堂上学到任何困难的东西。

Which kinds of ideas come more naturally to you while you’re walking?

当你走路时，哪些想法对你来说更自然？

Which kinds?

哪几种？

Yes.

是的。

Maybe not painting ideas, but some kind of ideas, because you’ve written about how using walking to learn ideas is a good thing, but which kinds of ideas?

也许不是绘画想法，而是某种想法，因为你写过如何通过步行来学习想法是一件好事，但哪种想法呢？

There’s cross-sectional variation, right?

存在横截面变化，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

Well, ideas about whatever you’re thinking about.

好吧，无论你在想什么，都有想法。

I remember, until a few years ago, I was working very intensely on programming.

我记得，直到几年前，我还非常紧张地从事编程工作。

I had the problem I was working on loaded into my head, and whenever I was doing something without any interruptions, I would start to think about that, so I think it’s good for whatever you happen to be thinking about.

我的脑海里一直浮现着我正在解决的问题，每当我在不受任何干扰的情况下做某事时，我就会开始思考这个问题，所以我认为这对你正在思考的任何事情都有好处。

Mathematicians, apparently, walk a lot.

显然，数学家经常走路。

I find it best for learning from what the other person knows, not so good from my own ideas.

我发现最好从别人的知识中学习，而不是从我自己的想法中学习。

It’s better —

这样更好 ——

What, when you’re walking with someone else?

什么，当你和别人一起散步时？

With someone else, and I’m talking with them, and I learn from them better.

和其他人一起，我和他们交谈，我可以更好地向他们学习。

I don’t find that I’m very generative when I’m walking.

我发现走路时我的创造力并不强。

Walking makes all kinds of thinking better.

步行可以让各种思考变得更好。

I’ve seen images — like MRI images or something like that — of brain activity.

我见过大脑活动的图像 ——比如 MRI 图像或类似的东西。

I don’t know how they do MRI images, but some kind of images of brain activity.

我不知道他们是如何制作核磁共振图像的，但知道某种大脑活动的图像。

Your brain is definitely more active when you’re walking.

当你走路时，你的大脑肯定会更加活跃。

Classic YC office hours were to walk down the block and talk as you walk, which also has the side benefit that you are side-by-side, and not looking the other person in the face, which I think may be better.

经典的 YC 办公时间是沿着街区走，边走边说话，这还有一个好处，就是你们并肩而行，而不是看着对方的脸，我认为这可能会更好。

It’s certainly better than —

这肯定比 更好——

It’s less threatening.

它的威胁较小。

It’s like confession in the church.

这就像在教堂里忏悔一样。

You don’t see the priest.

你看不到牧师。

Or you’re on a therapist’s couch — probably you’re not looking right at them, and vice versa.

或者你坐在治疗师的沙发上——可能你没有正确地看着他们，反之亦然。

Or you’re driving your kid back to boarding school.

或者你正开车送你的孩子回寄宿学校。

You’re taking kids —

你带着孩子 ——

And they’ll say things they would not otherwise have told you.

他们会说一些他们本来不会告诉你的话。

Or talk at all.

或者根本不说话。

COWEN: What are the best environments for learning while walking?

COWEN：边走边学习的最佳环境是什么？

Urban, British countryside, or —

城市、英国乡村，或者 —

Oh, my God.

哦，天啊。

How do you optimize this dose?

您如何优化这个剂量？

I actually have —

我其实有 ——

I think Britain is wonderful for learning while walking because it’s never too hot.

我认为英国非常适合边走边学，因为它永远不会太热。

You heat up while you’re walking.

当你走路的时候你会发热。

It doesn’t pour with rain on you like it did today?

没有像今天一样下着倾盆大雨吗？

I was drenched today.

我今天浑身湿透了。

It ends in four minutes.

四分钟后结束。

You can bring an umbrella.

你可以带把雨伞。

You run to the gazebo, but there is a gazebo.

你跑向凉亭，但那里有一个凉亭。

There was no gazebo where I was this morning.

今天早上我所在的地方没有凉亭。

What’s the most important thing you’ve learned about soundproofing?

关于隔音，您学到的最重要的事情是什么？

Boy, there’s a good question.

男孩，这是个好问题。

I’ve learned a few things about soundproofing.

我学到了一些关于隔音的知识。

Can I only say one thing?

我只能说一件事吗？

One thing is fine.

一件事很好。

The most important.

最重要的是。

No, no. You said, “What’s the most important?” Can I say some more?

不，不。你说：“什么是最重要的？”我可以多说一些吗？

Oh, no. You can say more than one.

哦，不。你可以说不止一个。

Okay.

好的。

Well, one is that sound comes through holes.

嗯，其中之一是声音是通过孔传出的。

It doesn’t come through your walls; it comes through your windows, probably, in most places.

它不会穿过你的墙壁；在大多数地方，它可能是通过你的窗户进来的。

If you fix the holes, you fix the noise problem.

如果你修复了这些孔，你就解决了噪音问题。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

It’s a war of attrition of sorts.

这是一场消耗战。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

Soundproofing is worth it, though.

不过隔音还是值得的。

Quiet is really good, at least for me.

安静真的很好，至少对我来说。

There’s an optimal level of fame.

有一个最佳的名气水平。

Do you feel you have too much or too little?

你觉得自己拥有的太多还是太少？

What is the optimal level of fame?

名气的最佳水平是多少？

I suppose it’s when you can get resources you need or something like that, or if there’s someone you need to talk to, they’ll talk to you.

我想是当你可以获得所需的资源或类似的东西时，或者如果你需要与某人交谈，他们就会与你交谈。

I can now talk to most people I need to talk to.

我现在可以和大多数我需要交谈的人交谈。

If I want to talk to somebody, I can find somebody who will introduce me, so that must be enough.

如果我想和某人交谈，我可以找到一个会介绍我的人，所以这就足够了。

Are you past the optimal?

你已经过了最佳状态了吗？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

That’s the thing.

就是这样。

This sounds very arrogant, but I realized this with Y Combinator.

这听起来很傲慢，但我通过 Y Combinator 实现了这一点。

I realized that Y Combinator had become famous long after it had become famous.

我意识到Y Combinator出名很久之后就出名了。

As far as I was concerned, I was just doing what we’d always been doing.

就我而言，我只是在做我们一直在做的事情。

Every six months, we would get all these applications.

每六个月，我们就会收到所有这些申请。

We’d have to find the needle in the haystack, get all these start-ups, help them grow, find investors for them, and then it would start again.

我们必须大海捞针，吸引所有这些初创企业，帮助他们成长，为他们找到投资者，然后一切才能重新开始。

But Jessica knew it was different, right?

但杰西卡知道情况有所不同，对吧？

You’re not aware.

你不知道。

Famous people don’t know how famous they are, unless they’re experts on it, like movie stars or something like that.

名人不知道自己有多出名，除非他们是这方面的专家，比如电影明星或类似的人。

They’re always basically taken by surprise.

他们基本上总是感到惊讶。

We were especially taken by surprise because the thing is, the companies we funded would grow until they had thousands of employees, but YC itself didn’t grow.

我们尤其感到惊讶，因为事实是，我们资助的公司会发展到拥有数千名员工，但 YC 本身却没有发展。

Why was that a mistake, per se?

为什么这本身就是一个错误？

Maybe it was better being oblivious.

也许忘记更好。

No, because when — basically, anybody outside Silicon Valley who wants to blame Silicon Valley for something, well, who do they blame?

不，因为当 ——基本上，硅谷以外的任何人想要因为某些事情而责怪硅谷时，那么，他们该责怪谁呢？

They’ve never heard of the people who are actually powerful in Silicon Valley.

他们从来没有听说过硅谷有哪些真正有权有势的人。

They only know a handful of people who have consumer brands, me among them.

他们只认识少数拥有消费品牌的人，我就是其中之一。

Basically, the world sucks because of tech, and tech sucks because of Paul Graham, because they’ve never heard of any of the other people.

基本上，世界因为科技而变得糟糕，科技因为保罗·格雷厄姆而变得糟糕，因为他们从未听说过其他任何人。

Very last question.

最后一个问题。

In my view, a life properly lived is learn, learn, learn all the time.

在我看来，正确的生活就是不断学习、学习、学习。

That’s what Charlie Munger said, right?

查理·芒格就是这么说的，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

Now, what have you recently been learning about, other than soundproofing?

那么，除了隔音之外，您最近还学习了什么？

Well, Tintoretto.

嗯，丁托列托。

COWEN: What are you learning?

考恩：你在学什么？

Well, Vasari had a very low opinion of him.

好吧，瓦萨里对他的评价很低。

Vasari is unreliable on most things, right?

瓦萨里在大多数事情上都不可靠，对吧？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

He way overrated his patrons, the Medici.

他太高估了他的赞助人美第奇家族。

Yes.

是的。

You have a thing about the Medici, clearly.

显然，你对美第奇家族很感兴趣。

He said that Tintoretto was too independent-minded, that Tintoretto was a mad genius, and that he would’ve been better if he had constrained his creativity and stayed within the limits of proper art.

他说丁托列托思想太独立，丁托列托是一个疯狂的天才，如果他限制自己的创造力并留在适当的艺术范围内，他会更好。

You know what I mean?

你知道我的意思？

A very Florentine sort of idea.

这是一个非常佛罗伦萨式的想法。

I think Tintoretto would have looked down on Vasari as a minor-league artist, but that was interesting.

我认为丁托列托会看不起瓦萨里作为一个小联盟艺术家，但这很有趣。

That was interesting to learn that’s how at least some of Tintoretto’s contemporaries viewed him, and Vasari in particular.

有趣的是，至少有一些丁托列托的同时代人是这样看待他的，尤其是瓦萨里。

And a Y Combinator co-founder is not going to buy that argument, is he?

Y Combinator 联合创始人不会相信这种说法，不是吗？

Which Y Combinator founder?

Y Combinator 创始人是哪位？

Of Vasari’s, that he was too radical, and too off on his own.

对于瓦萨里来说，他过于激进，而且过于独立。

Oh, I thought you meant Jessica was and agreed with me about Tintoretto.

哦，我以为你的意思是杰西卡是，并且同意我对丁托列托的看法。

Well, there are two of you.

嗯，你们有两个人。

Neither of you would agree with Vasari.

你们谁都不会同意瓦萨里的观点。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I’m now going to look.

我现在去看看。

I never thought about this, but I was just looking at some Tintorettos.

我从来没有想过这个，但我只是在看一些丁托列托。

I was just in Venice, looking at the Scuola Grande di San Marco, where all those Tintorettos are, and they were so dirty.

我当时在威尼斯，看着圣马可大学校，那里有所有丁托列托的作品，而且它们太脏了。

It was hard to tell what the paintings actually looked like, but I’m going to go look.

很难说这些画到底是什么样子，但我要去看看。

I’m going to go look and see if they seem freakish.

我要去看看它们是否看起来很奇怪。

Paul Graham, thank you very much.

保罗·格雷厄姆，非常感谢你。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Boy, that was so many hard questions.

天哪，这真是太多难题了。