Paul Gillingham on Why Mexico Stays Together (Ep. 273)
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today I’m chatting with Paul Gillingham.
今天我正在与保罗·吉林汉姆聊天。
He has a new book out: Mexico: A 500-Year History.
他出版了一本新书：《墨西哥：五百年的历史》。
It is, in my view, the single best introduction to the history of Mexico and will be one of the best nonfiction books of this year, 2026.
在我看来，这是介绍墨西哥历史的最好的一本，也将成为 2026 年最好的非小说类书籍之一。
Paul, welcome.
保罗，欢迎。
Thank you very much for those kind words, and it’s a privilege to be here.
非常感谢您的善意之言，很荣幸来到这里。
Thanks for the invitation.
感谢您的邀请。
Now, after independence in 1821, why did not the rest of Mexico fragment the way Central America did a few years later, where it splits off from the Mexican empire?
现在，在 1821 年独立之后，为什么墨西哥其他地区没有像几年后中美洲那样分裂，从墨西哥帝国分裂出来？
What determines the line?
线路由什么决定？
What sticks together with Mexico, and what does not?
什么与墨西哥紧密相连，什么不紧密相连？
That’s a very good question because it’s one of the things that really makes Mexico stand out in that period, those histories, is that after independence, the rest of the Americas, you get a series of super-states.
这是一个非常好的问题，因为真正让墨西哥在那个时期脱颖而出的事情之一，那些历史，是在独立后，美洲其他地区，你会得到一系列超级国家。
You get Gran Colombia, which is most of the Andes, and going across what’s now Venezuela.
你会看到大哥伦比亚，即安第斯山脉的大部分地区，并穿越现在的委内瑞拉。
You get the United Provinces of the Rio Plate.
你得到了里约板块联合省。
These are huge, very difficult to conceive of super-states, and they fail within a decade.
这些国家规模庞大，很难想象会出现超级国家，而且它们会在十年内失败。
Elsewhere, you look at other post-colonial states, thinking particularly of India, within a couple of years, you’re fragmented and failed.
在其他地方，你看看其他后殖民国家，特别是印度，几年之内，你就会四分五裂并失败。
Mexico doesn’t.
墨西哥没有。
Mexico actually stands up with the exceptions you put of Central America, which is formally part of it, in fact, but leaves within short order.
墨西哥实际上站了起来，但中美洲除外，事实上，中美洲在形式上是墨西哥的一部分，但很快就会离开。
It’s one of these questions of what Álvaro Enrigue calls the miracle that Mexico exists.
这是阿尔瓦罗·恩里格所说的墨西哥存在奇迹的问题之一。
To explain it is a paradox.
解释起来就是一个悖论。
To make a try at it, I think that there is a common theme in Mexican history, which runs across most of those five centuries, which is a remarkable degree of hands-off government.
为了尝试一下，我认为墨西哥历史上有一个共同的主题，贯穿这五个世纪的大部分时间，那就是政府的不干涉程度。
It’s imposed.
这是强加的。
Mexico has a lot of mountains.
墨西哥有很多山。
It’s very difficult to rule from any central pole.
从任何中心极进行统治都是非常困难的。
Savvy governments, or governments with no choice, which are quite often the same thing, are very hands-off.
精明的政府，或者别无选择的政府，通常是同一件事，都是非常不干涉的。
Federalism is built into Mexico’s soul.
联邦制已融入墨西哥的灵魂。
I think that’s one of the reasons, from early on, Mexico actually out-punches the rest of the Americas in terms of sticking together as a territorial unit.
我认为这就是原因之一，从一开始，墨西哥在作为一个领土单位团结在一起方面实际上就超过了美洲其他国家。
As you know, in the early 19th century, there are rebellions in Yucatán, the Caste Wars, but Yucatán does not split off from Mexico.
大家知道，19世纪初，尤卡坦州发生了叛乱，即种姓战争，但尤卡坦州并没有从墨西哥分裂出去。
What keeps that together?
是什么让它们保持在一起？
Yucatán has always felt itself to be a different country, effectively, and that runs through to the present.
尤卡坦州一直觉得自己是一个不同的国家，实际上，这一点一直延续到现在。
You can see the cultural reasons, obviously, and the Maya and the other great, sophisticated urban culture of the 16th century and before.
显然，你可以看到文化原因，以及玛雅文化和 16 世纪及之前其他伟大而复杂的城市文化。
It makes sense that they should feel themselves very different from the rest of what becomes Mexico.
他们应该感到自己与墨西哥其他地区有很大不同，这是有道理的。
In fact, it comes through in small but revealing ways.
事实上，它是以微小但具有启发意义的方式实现的。
Back in the 20th century, people find themselves being asked whether they want a Yucatán beer or a foreign beer, and a foreign beer being anything in Mexico outside Yucatán.
早在 20 世纪，人们就会被问到他们想要尤卡坦州啤酒还是外国啤酒，而外国啤酒是墨西哥尤卡坦州以外的任何啤酒。
Why doesn’t Yucatán leave?
尤卡坦州为何不离开？
I think that it came extremely close.
我认为它已经非常接近了。
In fact, there’s a moment in the 1840s when Mexico and Texas form an alliance, and Texas is chartering warships out to Yucatán to try and prevent any naval incursions.
事实上，在 1840 年代，墨西哥和德克萨斯州结成了联盟，德克萨斯州正在向尤卡坦州租用军舰，试图阻止任何海军入侵。
Why on earth does Yucatán stay?
尤卡坦半岛究竟为何留下来？
I think it’s because of the absence of an alternative capital, because Yucatán is profoundly racially divided.
我认为这是因为缺乏替代首都，因为尤卡坦州种族分裂严重。
It’s one of the few places in Mexico where you could say that really is a fairly stark racial divide.
这是墨西哥为数不多的几个可以说种族分歧确实相当严重的地方之一。
You have a plantocracy, in some ways, like the US South before the Civil War.
在某些方面，你有一个植物统治国家，就像内战前的美国南方一样。
You’ve got a relatively small white plantocracy centered in Mérida.
以梅里达为中心，有一个规模相对较小的白人种植园。
They have no interest whatsoever in leading an independent struggle.
他们对领导独立斗争没有任何兴趣。
While the Maya achieve an underestimated level of sophistication as a state, it’s still not at the point where you would get, for more than a couple of years, a really joined-up independence movement spanning all races, all areas, and the entire peninsula.
虽然玛雅作为一个国家的复杂程度被低估了，但在几年多的时间里，它仍然没有达到真正联合的独立运动跨越所有种族、所有地区和整个半岛的程度。
On peace in Yucatán
尤卡坦州和平
Now more recently, Mexico has a reputation for being very violent, but Yucatán is especially peaceful.
最近，墨西哥因暴力而闻名，但尤卡坦州却特别和平。
There are years where it’s had a lower murder rate, I think, than Finland.
我认为，多年来它的谋杀率比芬兰要低。
Why is that part of the country, after this chaotic beginning, after independence, recently so peaceful, and so safe?
为什么这个国家的那个地区在经历了这个混乱的开始、独立之后，最近却如此和平、如此安全？
Again, a good question.
又是一个好问题。
It, I think, explains broader patterns of drugs and violence in Mexican history.
我认为，它解释了墨西哥历史上更广泛的毒品和暴力模式。
The first is that foreigners in Mexico have carte blanche, or what in colonial times we call a fuero.
首先，在墨西哥的外国人拥有全权委托，或者在殖民时代我们称之为“fuero”。
Foreigners are untouchable.
外国人是碰不得的。
Because much of Yucatán, the Yucatán economy centers on tourism, the Riviera Maya, Cozumel, et cetera, there’s an awful lot in these key populated coastal strips of foreigners.
由于尤卡坦州的大部分地区、尤卡坦州的经济以旅游业为中心，里维埃拉玛雅、科苏梅尔等地，这些主要人口稠密的沿海地带有大量外国人。
Killing them is bad business.
杀死他们是一件坏事。
Stability is better for business anywhere.
稳定对于任何地方的企业来说都是更好的。
In Yucatán, there’s more of an imperative for that.
在尤卡坦州，这更有必要。
That’s one.
这是一个。
The other is that it has ceased being what it used to be, which is a major transit and transshipment route.
另一个是它已经不再是以前的主要过境和转运路线。
When I proposed to my wife on a beach in Quintana Roo, we could go out at 8:00 a.m.
当我在金塔纳罗奥州的海滩上向妻子求婚时，我们可以在上午 8:00 出去。
next to Tulum, when Tulum was a small dusty town.
毗邻图卢姆，当时图卢姆还是一个尘土飞扬的小镇。
We could go out, and twice a day, we would see small planes coming up from Central America.
我们可以出去，一天两次，我们会看到从中美洲起飞的小型飞机。
We knew perfectly well as they headed north up through Quintana Roo that this was a drugs run.
当他们向北穿过金塔纳罗奥州时，我们非常清楚这是一个毒品走私地。
As a transshipment route, it has been far surpassed.
作为转运航线，已经远远超越了。
That other great reason for violence is absent.
暴力的另一个重要原因并不存在。
On Quintana Roo
关于金塔纳罗奥州
Why did the central government even create the state of Quintana Roo, now that you mention it?
既然你提到了，为什么中央政府还要创建金塔纳罗奥州？
Oh, that’s an extremely good question.
哦，这是一个非常好的问题。
Quintana Roo is very much its own country.
金塔纳罗奥州完全是自己的国家。
In fact, in the Caste Wars which you mentioned, there’s a very strong east-west divide on the peninsula.
事实上，在你提到的种姓战争中，半岛东西方分歧非常严重。
The east is where the Maya rebels really survive the most.
东部是玛雅叛军真正生存最多的地方。
I think that it’s an attempt to administratively corral the more unstable, difficult-to-rule parts of the country.
我认为这是试图在行政上限制该国更不稳定、更难以统治的地区。
Using Yucatán, your point made, as a country, it’s an attempt to corral them and say, “Okay, we can send armies in there, we can try and prevent the contagion.” The idea you can do that by drawing a line on the map is obviously profoundly optimistic.
你的观点是，用尤卡坦州作为一个国家，试图将他们围起来并说：“好吧，我们可以派军队去那里，我们可以尝试阻止疫情蔓延。”通过在地图上画一条线来实现这一点的想法显然是非常乐观的。
It’s more terrain and settlement, which keeps Quintana Roo different from the rest of the peninsula.
更多的地形和定居点使金塔纳罗奥州与半岛其他地区不同。
But it worked, right?
但它奏效了，对吧？
Can it be said to have worked when there are very few people there in the beginning?
一开始人很少的时候就可以说成功了吗？
Quintana Roo is historically really low population.
金塔纳罗奥州历史上人口很少。
Most of the Yucatán was concentrated closer toward Mérida and that west coast.
尤卡坦半岛的大部分地区都集中在靠近梅里达和西海岸的地方。
Quintana Roo really takes off because of mass tourism, and that’s because of state intervention.
金塔纳罗奥州的真正腾飞得益于大众旅游业，而这正是国家干预的结果。
Relatively recently, Cancún was a village until the late ’60s, early ’70s.
直到 60 年代末、70 年代初，坎昆还是一个村庄。
On Mexican infrastructure
关于墨西哥基础设施
Before Porfirio Díaz, why is there so little attention to infrastructure in Mexico?
在 Porfirio Díaz 之前，为什么墨西哥对基础设施的关注如此之少？
Because the money’s not there.
因为钱没到。
How does he get the money?
他怎么拿到钱？
What accounts for the change?
造成这种变化的原因是什么？
What accounts for change is, first of all, the final achievement of independence.
造成变化的首先是独立的最终实现。
Formally, in the history books, 1821: The Spanish leave, Mexico’s independent, a new stage starts.
正式地，在历史书中，1821年：西班牙脱欧，墨西哥独立，一个新阶段开始。
That’s not actually true.
这实际上不是真的。
Just in terms of the Spanish leaving, well, they don’t.
就西班牙人离开而言，他们没有。
They maintain a garrison on the key fortress in the main port, controlling the entrance to Mexico from the Atlantic, the port of Veracruz.
他们在主要港口的关键要塞上驻有驻军，控制着从大西洋进入墨西哥的入口，即韦拉克鲁斯港。
The Spanish stay there until 1829, controlling it.
西班牙人一直控制着这里直到 1829 年。
They don’t really leave.
他们并没有真正离开。
Within two years of them finally leaving, you have a French invasion, a failed one, grand, but still an invasion, still that instability.
在他们最终离开的两年内，法国入侵了，一次失败，虽然规模宏大，但仍然是一次入侵，仍然是那种不稳定。
Then you get obviously American invasions.
然后你就会明显看到美国的入侵。
Then you get a civil war.
然后就会发生内战。
I’m sure we’ll go into this in a minute—my point is that it’s not until 1867 when the Mexican independence forces take a European-imposed emperor and shoot him, which is not done.
我相信我们很快就会讨论这个问题——我的观点是，直到 1867 年，墨西哥独立势力才夺取了欧洲强加的皇帝并枪杀了他，但事情还没有结束。
You don’t shoot emperors in global history.
你不会射杀全球历史上的皇帝。
The Mexicans do.
墨西哥人就是这么做的。
This is a clear declaration of independence.
这是明确的独立宣言。
It’s an end to other empires’ pretensions.
这结束了其他帝国的自负。
It’s the beginning of stabilization led by a brilliantly gifted, and this is a word I would almost never use, but a brilliantly gifted politician, Porfirio Díaz, who benefits from this being a time of a global boom when the rest of the world, the industrial world, craves Mexican resources.
这是由一位才华横溢的政治家波菲里奥·迪亚斯（Porfirio Díaz）领导的稳定的开始，这个词我几乎永远不会用，但他是一位才华横溢的政治家，他从这个全球繁荣的时代中受益，而世界其他地方，工业世界，都渴望墨西哥的资源。
Díaz is very savvy to ride that into a new era where Mexico becomes the epitome of a successful, what used to be called, developing nation, and it’s with that you get the infrastructure.
迪亚兹非常精明地驾驭这一新时代，使墨西哥成为一个成功的、过去被称为发展中国家的缩影，并由此获得了基础设施。
On Oaxaca
在瓦哈卡州
You have Díaz, you have Juarez, the other very important 19th-century leader, and they’re both from the state of Oaxaca.
迪亚斯和华雷斯是 19 世纪另一位非常重要的领导人，他们都来自瓦哈卡州。
Is that coincidence, it’s only two data points, or does that tell us something?
这是巧合吗？这只是两个数据点，还是这告诉了我们一些事情？
That is such a good question because it is something which really stands out.
这是一个很好的问题，因为它确实很突出。
To add data points to that, at one stage under Díaz, something like two-thirds of the congressmen are actually effectively from Oaxaca.
补充一下数据，在迪亚斯领导下的某个阶段，大约三分之二的国会议员实际上来自瓦哈卡州。
While congress is a rubber stamp, nevertheless, it tells you something.
虽然国会只是一个橡皮图章，但它还是能告诉你一些事情。
I think this is the culmination of a very long-term trend of Oaxacan political savvy and relative independence.
我认为这是瓦哈卡政治智慧和相对独立的长期趋势的顶峰。
Oaxaqueños are good at politics, and they are very politically engaged.
瓦哈克诺人擅长政治，而且非常热衷于政治。
If you want to make huge leaps, you say, well, that goes back to the conquest, the 16th century, where Spanish rule flows around them.
如果你想实现巨大的飞跃，你会说，好吧，这可以追溯到16世纪的征服时期，西班牙的统治围绕着他们。
Why?
为什么？
Because people who live in mountains tend to be quite good at war and quite prickly, and the Oaxaqueños epitomize this.
因为生活在山区的人们往往非常擅长战争并且非常易怒，瓦哈克尼奥斯人就是这一点的缩影。
Outside the main valley, Oaxaca stays largely independent and very decentralized.
在主要山谷之外，瓦哈卡州基本上保持独立且非常分散。
It’s almost like New England democracy, it’s firstly independent, small cities, counties.
这几乎就像新英格兰的民主，首先是独立的小城市、县。
Every time Oaxaca gets a chance, it seizes it to really push for autonomy and political power.
瓦哈卡州每次获得机会，都会抓住它，真正推动自治和政治权力。
You really see this—to wrap up this rather tangential explanation—the direct ancestor comes with independence, where suddenly towns are allowed to declare themselves counties with their own governments, their own elections, very competitive ones.
你确实看到了这一点——总结一下这个相当离题的解释——直系祖先伴随着独立而来，突然之间，城镇被允许宣布自己为县，拥有自己的政府，自己的选举，非常有竞争力的选举。
Oaxaca does it to an extraordinary extent.
瓦哈卡州在这方面做得非常出色。
Every village in Oaxaca says, “We are now a county.” It’s almost like Swiss cantons.
瓦哈卡州的每个村庄都说：“我们现在是一个县了。”这几乎就像瑞士的各州一样。
It’s this extraordinary democratic urge, and that trains people to be good at politics.
正是这种非凡的民主冲动，训练人们擅长政治。
Do you think that helps account for why, to this day, Oaxaca State is so interesting to visit because there’s so much local autonomy?
您认为这是否有助于解释为什么瓦哈卡州至今仍如此有趣，因为那里有如此多的地方自治权？
I love that.
我喜欢那个。
I would say, in part, because one of the traditional tourist attractions of Mexico is precisely indigenous culture, and because of this autonomy, Oaxaca has preserved a multitude of very strong indigenous cultures.
我想说，部分原因是墨西哥的传统旅游景点之一正是土著文化，并且由于这种自治，瓦哈卡保留了许多非常强大的土著文化。
I think, yes, I’d add to that, that it’s comparatively safe, a key consideration.
我想，是的，我想补充一点，它相对安全，这是一个关键的考虑因素。
That’s a recent thing.
这是最近的事情。
Tourism in Oaxaca goes back a long time.
瓦哈卡州的旅游业历史悠久。
I think it’s also because you have this stunning colonial city.
我想这也是因为你拥有这座令人惊叹的殖民城市。
Oaxaca City is really beautiful, and we have in the US nothing at all, or Canada, we’ve got nothing like that.
瓦哈卡市真的很漂亮，在美国我们什么都没有，在加拿大也没有这样的东西。
Finally, and I actually believe this, Mexican cuisine is very, very diverse.
最后，我确实相信这一点，墨西哥美食非常非常多样化。
People think Mexican cooking, tacos, well, yes.
人们认为墨西哥烹饪、炸玉米饼，嗯，是的。
Oaxacan cooking is really a superb cuisine.
瓦哈卡烹饪真是一流的美食。
One of the best.
最好的之一。
I would say Oaxacan and Yucateco cuisines are head and shoulders above the rest of Mexico.
我想说瓦哈卡州和尤卡坦科州的美食远远超过墨西哥其他地区。
I don’t know how much that draws.
我不知道这能吸引多少人。
Well, I do, actually.
嗯，实际上我愿意。
There’s quite a lot of culinary tourism, which tends to be rich tourism in Oaxaca these days.
有相当多的美食旅游，如今瓦哈卡州的旅游业往往很丰富。
I think that’s another draw.
我认为这是另一个吸引力。
It’s extraordinary, in fact, how many people have realized that over the last 15 or so years and formed these sort of expatriate, almost colonies in Oaxaca.
事实上，令人惊奇的是，在过去 15 年左右的时间里，有多少人意识到了这一点，并在瓦哈卡形成了这种几乎是殖民地的外籍人士。
It’s a fantastic place to live.
这是一个很棒的居住地。
On great food outside cities
城市之外的美食
A mere two weeks ago, I was eating barbacoa in Tlacolula.
就在两周前，我还在特拉科卢拉吃烧烤。
Have you ever been there?
你去过那里吗？
I have not, but I’m starting to resent this story already, and you haven’t told it, Tyler.
我没有，但我已经开始讨厌这个故事了，而你还没有告诉它，泰勒。
Go on, do tell.
继续说吧。
Well, there’s a fantastic church in town.
嗯，镇上有一座很棒的教堂。
I would guess it’s, I don’t know, 20, 25 minutes outside of the main city, so it’s easy to get there.
我猜想，我不知道，距主城 20、25 分钟路程，所以很容易到达那里。
You just take a cab ride.
你只需乘坐出租车即可。
We asked our cab driver, taxista, where’s the best barbecue in a nearby pueblo, and that’s where he took us.
我们问出租车司机，附近普韦布洛最好的烧烤店在哪里，他带我们去了那里。
It was unbelievable.
这太令人难以置信了。
First of all, very good strategy.
首先，非常好的策略。
The best meal I had in Yucatán by country mile was about half an hour outside Mérida, and it was the same thing.
我在尤卡坦州乡村英里吃过的最好的一餐是在梅里达郊外大约半小时的地方，也是同样的事情。
Ask a local taxi driver, “Come on, if you want a really good meal, where would you go?” He said, “Ah, it’s a bit of a drive.” You say, “Okay, I can see perverse incentive, knowing my question.” When you end up in a small warehouse, really in the middle of nowhere, stuffed full of Mexican people with the most incredible deer, you think, “Okay, I actually think this was a fair reflection.” I envy you that meal.
问当地的出租车司机：“来吧，如果你想吃一顿真正好的饭菜，你会去哪里？”他说：“啊，有点开车。”你说：“好吧，我知道我的问题，所以我可以看到不正当的动机。”当你最终进入一个小仓库，真的是在一个偏僻的地方，里面塞满了墨西哥人和最令人难以置信的鹿，你会想，“好吧，我实际上认为这是一个公平的反映。”真羡慕你那顿饭
Twenty minutes out of a Mexican town is such a good recipe for finding the best food.
离开墨西哥小镇二十分钟就可以找到最好的食物。
Twenty minutes, 30 minutes, I’m not sure why, or just the outskirts.
二十分钟，三十分钟，我不知道为什么，或者只是郊区。
Yes, I think that’s actually quite true.
是的，我认为这确实是真的。
There’s a book in this, Tyler.
这有一本书，泰勒。
I’m not going to write it, but there’s a book in this.
我不会写它，但是有一本书。
Sociologically explain the significance and quality of restaurants 20 minutes outside major towns in Mexico.
从社会学角度解释距离墨西哥主要城镇 20 分钟路程的餐厅的重要性和质量。
If I could ask you while you’re there, what did you think of Monte Albán?
如果我能在你在那里的时候问你，你对阿尔班山有什么看法？
It’s a little boring for me.
对我来说有点无聊。
I’ve been there twice.
我去过那里两次。
I didn’t go there a third time.
我没有第三次去那里。
The other ruins I much prefer.
我更喜欢其他的废墟。
Yes, it’s fine.
是的，没关系。
It’s funny.
这很有趣。
I say that to young people, and they go, “This is heresy.” Yes, frankly, given the plethora of archaeological sites in Mexico, I think Monte Albán is the most boring, large one by a country mile.
我对年轻人这么说，他们会说：“这是异端邪说。”是的，坦率地说，考虑到墨西哥有大量的考古遗址，我认为阿尔班山是最无聊、最大的一个。
It’s extraordinary.
这是非凡的。
I’m so glad to hear that endorsed.
我很高兴听到这一点得到认可。
I hope there aren’t too many Oaxaqueños listeners to this particular podcast, though.
不过，我希望这个特定的播客没有太多瓦哈克诺斯听众。
There’s that small tomb you can see—what’s it called?
你可以看到那个小坟墓——它叫什么名字？
Is it Zaachila is the city or the pueblo?
Zaachila 是城市还是普韦布洛？
It’s again, 30 minutes outside of Oaxaca City, I think.
又是一次，距瓦哈卡市 30 分钟路程，我想。
We had some great food there.
我们在那里吃了一些很棒的食物。
Just to see that one Zapotec tomb where you walk down the steps, and you have it all to yourself, to me, is better than Monte Albán was.
对我来说，只要看到一座萨巴特克坟墓，你走下台阶，你就拥有了一切，这比阿尔班山更好。
That’s just one thing in a field.
这只是一个领域的一件事。
That’s the way Cobá used to be, Yucatán, and Xochicalco in Morelos.
尤卡坦州的科巴和莫雷洛斯州的霍奇卡尔科就是这样。
I’m glad about this; they’ve really expanded in the last 20 years, the dig, the tourism potential.
我对此很高兴；在过去的 20 年里，他们确实扩大了挖掘和旅游潜力。
They should have, because it’s stunning.
他们应该这样做，因为它太棒了。
On leaders from Coahuila
关于科阿韦拉州的领导人
Now, if we look to the early 20th century, it seems there’s some number of key leaders from the state of Coahuila.
现在，如果我们回顾 20 世纪初，似乎有一些关键领导人来自科阿韦拉州。
Is that coincidence?
这是巧合吗？
No.
不。
There’s Madero.
有马德罗。
There’s Carranza.
有卡兰萨。
Why does that happen?
为什么会发生这种情况？
Coahuila is one of the states which benefits enormously from this global boom of the turn of the century, which translates into the US drawing investment and resources in an unprecedented way.
科阿韦拉州是从世纪之交的全球繁荣中受益匪浅的州之一，这意味着美国以前所未有的方式吸引投资和资源。
I think that it’s taking half of British global investment at that time.
我认为它占据了当时英国全球投资的一半。
Resources are desperately needed.
迫切需要资源。
The obvious thing in Coahuila is copper.
科阿韦拉州最明显的就是铜。
Copper mines.
铜矿。
On the border in Coahuila has a geography which stretches everything from arid mining territory through to really rich irrigated lands.
科阿韦拉州边境的地理范围从干旱的矿区到非常肥沃的灌溉土地。
It’s wealthy.
这是富有的。
It’s next to the US.
它就在美国旁边。
You get a class of big landowners who are very diversified, very cosmopolitan.
你会看到一个非常多元化、非常国际化的大地主阶级。
Madero was educated in part in Paris, in part in Berkeley.
马德罗部分在巴黎接受教育，部分在伯克利接受教育。
They look southwards and think, “This is a slightly sclerotic dictatorship.
他们向南看，心想：“这是一个有点僵化的独裁政权。
We can do better.”
我们可以做得更好。”
On military rule and civil war in Mexico
论墨西哥的军事统治和内战
This is a big, very general question.
这是一个很大的、非常普遍的问题。
After World War II, Mexico avoids military rule, and they avoid civil war, unlike many parts of the Americas.
第二次世界大战后，墨西哥避免了军事统治，也避免了内战，这与美洲许多地区不同。
What’s your account of that?
你对此有何看法？
My account of that, first of all, that’s a major paradox which really lay behind the subject of my doctorate and my last book.
首先，我对此的解释是一个主要的悖论，它确实隐藏在我的博士学位和我的上一本书的主题背后。
How do you account for the fact that Mexico has a revolution, first of all, one of the great revolutions, which lays down radical prescriptions for equality, which are then produced by one of the most unequal economies in the Americas?
您如何解释墨西哥发生了一场革命，首先是一场伟大的革命，这场革命为平等制定了激进的规定，然后由美洲最不平等的经济体之一产生？
You’ve got talking about revolution, you’ve got massive, enduring inequality, and yet you have this, as you point out, abnormal peace going back to 1929 with regular elections like clockwork every six years.
你谈论革命，你有大规模、持久的不平等，但正如你所指出的，你却拥有可追溯到 1929 年的不正常和平，每六年一次的定期选举就像发条一样。
Every six years, there’s a peaceful transfer of power.
每六年，就会有一次和平的权力交接。
There is never any even imagination of a January, the 6th moment there.
从来没有任何关于一月的想象，那里的第六个时刻。
To make another comparison, there’s, after 1929, no assassination.
再做一个比较，1929 年之后就没有发生暗杀事件了。
Whereas obviously here, JFK, RFK, MLK, there’s almost alphabet soup of assassination of progressive leaders.
显然，肯尼迪、罗伯特·肯尼迪、马丁·路德·金在这里几乎都是对进步领导人的暗杀。
If you look at this and try and make it add up, it’s extremely difficult.
如果你看看这个并尝试将其加起来，那就非常困难了。
I think it’s in part because the inequality misses some of the benefits for the rapidly growing urban populations, which range from superb dirt-cheap subsidized cinema to low housing rates to healthcare.
我认为部分原因是这种不平等忽视了快速增长的城市人口的一些好处，包括超级便宜的补贴电影院、低住房率和医疗保健。
Mexican healthcare, given its income band, it’s very, very good.
考虑到墨西哥的收入水平，墨西哥的医疗保健非常非常好。
Just looking at Gini coefficients for either income or wealth doesn’t tell the entire story of what Mexicans get out of the revolution.
仅关注收入或财富的基尼系数并不能说明墨西哥人从革命中获得的全部情况。
The final thing is precisely those elections, because this is a one-party state and the elections are rigged.
最后一件事正是那些选举，因为这是一个一党制国家，选举是被操纵的。
No question.
毫无疑问。
All the way until the last decade, really, the national elections are rigged, but the local ones are not.
事实上，直到最近十年，全国选举都被操纵了，但地方选举却没有。
Yes, they are, actually, but any group of people who feel strong enough, like say Oaxaqueños, about their local autonomy, about ruling themselves, can make enough of a fuss about it that through the mechanism of election, backed up by riot, they can actually get their people in.
是的，实际上是这样，但任何像瓦哈克诺斯所说的那样，对于地方自治、自我统治感到足够强大的群体，都可以对此大惊小怪，通过选举机制，在骚乱的支持下，他们实际上可以让自己的人民加入。
There is this unconventional but effective route to popular representation, which at time outpunches the British because in the British system, candidates just get imposed from the party.
有一种非传统但有效的获得民众代表权的途径，它有时会击败英国人，因为在英国的体制中，候选人只是从政党中强加的。
The party says, “Local candidate X will run for election in Surrey,” and that’s it.
该党称，“当地候选人 X 将参加萨里选举”，仅此而已。
Democracy is finished.
民主就完了。
Mexico is not like that.
墨西哥不是这样的。
I think that’s something that helps temper this radical inequality in qualitative terms, this apparent national, what the people call, soft dictatorship.
我认为这有助于在质量上缓和这种极端的不平等，即人们所说的明显的国家软独裁。
Then the final piece, and I’m sorry this answer goes on, but this is just a central paradox which political scientists and historians have struggled to understand for decades.
然后是最后一部分，我很抱歉这个答案还在继续，但这只是政治学家和历史学家几十年来一直努力理解的一个中心悖论。
I think we’re finally getting a handle on it.
我想我们终于掌握了它。
The final piece is the immense war weariness caused by a revolution that kills one in 10 Mexicans and the education that gives leaders all the way to the ’50s in the absolute pragmatic imperative: Whatever you do, keep the lid on, whatever needs doing.
最后一部分是一场导致十分之一墨西哥人死亡的革命所造成的巨大厌战情绪，以及一直到上世纪 50 年代领导人所接受的绝对务实的教育：无论你做什么，都要盖上盖子，无论需要做什么。
If it’s repression, then generally, conciliation works better.
如果是镇压，那么一般来说，和解效果更好。
This extremely complex equation, I think, is what keeps the army out of politics, what keeps relative peace and relative buy-in to this unequal single-party state.
我认为，这个极其复杂的方程式使军队远离政治，使这个不平等的一党制国家保持相对和平和相对支持。
There’s nothing like it.
没有什么比这更好的了。
Mexico really is idiosyncratic in this, and it’s extraordinary, as you can see, complicated recipe.
墨西哥在这方面确实很特别，正如你所看到的，它的配方非常复杂。
On the Cárdenas regime
关于卡德纳斯政权
Right before World War II, the Cárdenas regime redistributes a lot of the cultivatable land.
第二次世界大战前夕，卡德纳斯政权重新分配了大量可耕地。
How does that fit into your story?
这与你的故事有何关系？
That fits into my story in, it’s always good to say a work in trinity.
这符合我的故事，说三位一体的作品总是好的。
I’m going to say in three ways, but then reserve the right to say a fourth.
我将从三种方面说，但保留说第四种的权利。
The first is that one of the key reasons for the Mexican Revolution is land.
首先，墨西哥革命的关键原因之一是土地。
Mexico is a strongly rural country with strong traditions of this autonomy, small freeholding, or collective landowning in indigenous areas.
墨西哥是一个以农村为主的国家，在土著地区具有强烈的自治、小型自由保有或集体土地所有权的传统。
The Porfiriato sees a revolution in this extraordinary concentration of land.
Porfiriato 见证了这片非同寻常的土地集中度的一场革命。
This entails, obviously, dispossession of the peasantry.
显然，这意味着剥夺农民的财产。
This is one of the key things that leads people like Emiliano Zapata to rebel.
这是导致埃米利亚诺·萨帕塔这样的人反抗的关键因素之一。
You have this pent-up demand for land from millions of families.
数百万家庭对土地的需求被压抑。
That’s one.
这是一个。
Two, it largely, for many, fails because they get land, but they get land on the condition that say they continue factory farming.
第二，对于许多人来说，这很大程度上失败了，因为他们获得了土地，但他们获得土地的条件是继续工厂化农业。
Everyone’s going to grow sugar.
每个人都会种植糖。
Everyone’s going to grow wheat.
每个人都会种小麦。
Not quite a Soviet kolkhoz, but the peasant doesn’t have autonomy, which they want quite often to plant whatever they want.
不完全是苏联集体农庄，但农民没有自主权，他们经常希望种植任何他们想要的东西。
This is, in many ways, a failure from their point of view, but there’s always the psychological payoff that they have got land.
从很多方面来说，从他们的角度来看，这都是失败的，但他们获得土地总能带来心理上的回报。
Then, in more straightforward terms, this is one of the reasons that Mexico’s healthcare system, at a really nuts-and-bolts level, works.
然后，用更直接的术语来说，这就是墨西哥医疗保健系统在具体细节上发挥作用的原因之一。
It’s because every communal farm, ejido they’re called, has a medical office.
这是因为每个公共农场（他们称之为 ejido）都有一个医疗办公室。
Even though, in the apparent terms of giving Mexico’s rural population a new level of wealth, autonomy, it doesn’t work particularly well.
尽管如此，从表面上给予墨西哥农村人口新的财富水平和自治权的角度来看，它的效果并不是特别好。
It brings a certain pride.
它带来了一定的自豪感。
It brings a certain independence.
它带来了一定的独立性。
It brings good healthcare.
它带来良好的医疗保健。
There are all these less tangible benefits.
还有所有这些不太明显的好处。
There’s nothing like it in the Americas.
美洲没有这样的事情。
It’s one of the key reasons, I think, that again, the countryside stays largely quiescent while it is stripped of resources in the 60 years after Cárdenas leaves office.
我认为，卡德纳斯卸任后 60 年来，农村地区基本处于静止状态，资源被剥夺，这也是关键原因之一。
On the ejido system
关于 ejido 系统
Hasn’t the ejido system held Mexico back?
ejido系统不是阻碍了墨西哥吗？
Because without that system, many more people would sell their land to outsiders, move to the cities just to have much higher real wages, for instance, as you see in China.
因为如果没有这个制度，更多的人会把土地卖给外人，搬到城市只是为了获得更高的实际工资，例如，正如你在中国看到的那样。
You do get massive urbanization.
你确实得到了大规模的城市化。
Its people being pushed out of the countryside by a deliberate transfer of resources.
由于资源的故意转移，其人民被赶出农村。
What do I mean by that?
我这么说是什么意思？
I mean that food prices are capped.
我的意思是食品价格受到限制。
The really key one, maize, its price is kept artificially low.
真正关键的玉米，其价格被人为压低。
This means that you can have an urban and especially industrializing workforce on the cheap.
这意味着您可以廉价地拥有城市劳动力，尤其是工业化劳动力。
You can have really low wages.
你可以得到非常低的工资。
You can have quite low cost.
你可以有相当低的成本。
In Mexico, reasonably high-quality industrialization, it all comes at the expense of the countryside.
在墨西哥，相当高质量的工业化是以牺牲农村为代价的。
Does the ejido change that?
ejido 会改变这一点吗？
No, not really.
不，不是真的。
Also, the ejido is used for precisely the sort of commercial farming which generates the profits, economies of scale that a command economy, or China, might actually achieve.
此外，ejido 恰恰用于商业化农业，这种商业化农业可以产生利润，实现计划经济或中国实际上可能实现的规模经济。
In some instances, that’s not just run by the government, but it’s run by the government as a sort of almost shell company or front for the major foreign corporations.
在某些情况下，这不仅是由政府运营的，而且是由政府作为大型外国公司的空壳公司或幌子公司运营的。
The key example is from the US, Anderson Clayton, one of the giants in food production, cotton, et cetera.
关键的例子是来自美国的安德森·克莱顿（Anderson Clayton），他是食品生产、棉花等领域的巨头之一。
They are, through the Mexican government, instructing ejidos exactly what to grow.
他们通过墨西哥政府准确指导墨西哥人种植什么。
In the end, functionally, what’s the difference?
最后，从功能上来说，有什么区别呢？
The pressure on the countryside and the attraction of the city means that you’re going to get this sort of Chinese-style and level of urbanization, irrespective of the agrarian reform.
农村的压力和城市的吸引力意味着，无论土地改革如何，你都将获得这种中国风格和水平的城市化。
On human capital
论人力资本
Has Mexico worried too much about land and not enough about human capital?
墨西哥是否过于担心土地而对人力资本担心不够？
No, I don’t think so.
不，我不这么认为。
Say you look at Lebanese migrants.
假设你观察黎巴嫩移民。
They don’t obsess over accumulating land.
他们并不痴迷于积累土地。
They have high human capital.
他们拥有较高的人力资本。
They’ve done very, very well under the same regime.
他们在同一政权下做得非常非常好。
You could say the same about the Lebanese globally.
对于全球范围内的黎巴嫩人来说，你也可以这样说。
You want the great diaspora merchants, you think Armenia, you think Lebanon.
你想要伟大的侨民商人，你会想到亚美尼亚，你会想到黎巴嫩。
I think they bring that.
我认为他们带来了这一点。
Look at how much land there is in Lebanon.
看看黎巴嫩有多少土地。
The Beqaa Valley is tiny.
贝卡谷地很小。
You can drive up and down it in about three hours if you’re feeling quite brave on any given day.
如果您在任何一天都感到足够勇敢，您可以在大约三个小时内开车上下。
I don’t think you’re absolutely right.
我不认为你是完全正确的。
Land is not a Lebanese aim.
土地不是黎巴嫩的目标。
Mexico, as a very strongly peasant society until 1960s, really wants what every peasant globally wants before you get rapid economic change, which is what they call subsistence autonomy.
直到 20 世纪 60 年代，墨西哥都是一个非常强大的农民社会，在经济快速变革之前，墨西哥真正想要的是全球每个农民都想要的东西，这就是他们所说的生存自治。
What does that mean?
这意味着什么？
I want the guarantee that I can grow enough food to get my family through the next harvest cycle.
我希望得到保证，我可以种植足够的粮食，让我的家人度过下一个收获周期。
You can see the logic to that.
你可以看到其中的逻辑。
That’s actually a more conservative and stable economic structure than relying on commercial food purchase when your own income is low and unstable.
当你自己的收入低且不稳定时，这实际上是比依赖商业食品购买更保守和稳定的经济结构。
What I’m trying to say is it makes very good sense.
我想说的是，这很有道理。
Does the cargo system, which is common in Mexican pueblos, does it make any sense?
墨西哥普韦布洛人常见的货运系统有任何意义吗？
Is it sustainable?
它可持续吗？
Yes, I think it is.
是的，我认为是的。
Talking about human capital, I think that the cargo system actually, through its distribution of social capital, brings a lot of talented people to actually make the strange swap.
说到人力资本，我认为货运系统实际上通过其社会资本的分配，带来了很多有才华的人来实际进行奇怪的交换。
The cargo system whereby you, an indigenous zone, assume political office with absolutely zero payoff and at quite considerable cost in terms of cash and time, it makes sense because it brings the brightest and best into office over and over again.
货运系统让你，一个土著地区，在绝对零回报的情况下担任政治职务，并在现金和时间方面付出相当大的成本，这是有道理的，因为它一次又一次地把最聪明和最优秀的人带到办公室。
This is when it works.
这是它发挥作用的时候。
This is a very broad generalization.
这是一个非常广泛的概括。
The only real downside is a gerontocracy.
唯一真正的缺点是老年统治。
When you look around our political system, it’s quite clear that gerontocracy isn’t limited to societies which work the cargo system.
当你环顾我们的政治体系时，你会发现很明显，老年统治并不局限于货运系统的社会。
Say I’m a leader, comisario, I have to pay for part of the fireworks, part of the beer.
假设我是一名领导，同志们，我必须支付部分烟花、部分啤酒的费用。
Isn’t my incentive as a talented person to minimize local state capacity rather than really having everything develop?
难道我作为一个人才的动机不是要尽量减少地方国家能力而不是真正让一切发展吗？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
I would say no, actually, and that generally cargo holders work as intermediaries with the state in the 20th century.
事实上，我想说不，在 20 世纪，货主通常充当国家的中间人。
By investing in fireworks, buying a share in a bull for a fiesta, and buying some pulque, whatever your local hooch is, and not just maintaining some stability, but doing it in part by bread and circuses, gives a level of control and local nuts and bolts of knowledge, which the central government then uses as part of this basic quest for stability.
通过投资烟花，购买公牛的股份来庆祝节日，购买一些龙舌兰酒，无论你当地的酒是什么，不仅是维持一定的稳定，而且部分通过面包和马戏来实现，提供了一定程度的控制和当地的具体知识，中央政府随后将其用作稳定的基本追求的一部分。
With stability going all the way back to Porfiriato comes development.
Porfiriato 的稳定伴随着发展。
I think that this is a vast generalization.
我认为这是一个巨大的概括。
The cargo system has great flaws, but the reason it endures is it also has great strengths.
货运系统有很大的缺陷，但它之所以能经久不衰，是因为它也有很大的优点。
A lot of these villages, they seem quite dysfunctional.
很多这样的村庄看起来功能失调。
It seems not uncommon for, say, half of the grown men to be alcoholics.
比如说，一半的成年男性酗酒似乎并不罕见。
There’s a major problem with imbalance.
不平衡是一个大问题。
The men leave, the women have to stay.
男人离开，女人必须留下。
They’re abandoned, or they can’t marry, or there’s no one to support the kid.
他们被遗弃，或者无法结婚，或者没有人抚养孩子。
Wouldn’t the central government do better, actually, just trying to minimize involvement in the villages?
事实上，中央政府尽量减少对村庄的干预不是更好吗？
Sorry, I don’t understand the last part of that question.
抱歉，我不明白该问题的最后一部分。
When you say minimizing involvement, do you mean just stepping back and letting villages get on with whatever their collective goals are?
当你说尽量减少参与时，你的意思是退后一步，让村庄继续实现他们的集体目标吗？
I didn’t quite understand.
我不太明白。
The village itself can make it hard to migrate because you cannot, in isolated fashion, sell your land to an outsider.
村庄本身可能会导致移民变得困难，因为你不能以孤立的方式将土地出售给外人。
Someone’s willing to bid for it, but the whole village, in essence, has a veto on whether you can sell your land.
有人愿意出价，但本质上，整个村子对你是否可以出售你的土地拥有否决权。
Wages are much higher outside the village.
工资比村外高得多。
Alcoholism is lower outside the villages, typically.
通常，村庄外的酗酒率较低。
Should the villages be subsidized or, in essence, should moving to the cities be subsidized in terms of a net effective policy?
是应该补贴农村，还是本质上应该补贴进城，这是一个净有效的政策？
I think that villages should be subsidized, and Mexican policymakers have realized that for a long time and done so.
我认为应该对村庄进行补贴，墨西哥政策制定者很早就意识到这一点并这样做了。
I think that land is no longer the question.
我认为土地不再是问题。
Most people in villages—this depends very much where you go—but the reason half the men aren’t there is precisely because they have migrated to work, whether it be migrating to cities, whether it be migrating to the north.
大多数人在农村——这很大程度上取决于你去哪里——但一半的男人不在那里的原因恰恰是因为他们已经外出务工，无论是迁移到城市，还是迁移到北方。
Remittances are a key source—they are the lifeline for many villages.
汇款是一个关键来源——它们是许多村庄的生命线。
That’s the way it’s been for nearly a century.
近一个世纪以来一直如此。
You get a certain amount of small-scale cultivation, as always, of maize, tomato, squash, chilies, et cetera, your full nutrient package.
一如既往，你会得到一定数量的小规模种植的玉米、番茄、南瓜、辣椒等，获得完整的营养包。
That’s a small portion of what people are actually doing in villages.
这只是人们在村庄里实际做的事情的一小部分。
That’s increasingly uneconomic on a market, local level.
这在市场和地方层面上越来越不经济。
This is why you get this out-migration that you talk about.
这就是您所说的人口外迁的原因。
It’s not just male.
这不仅仅是男性。
It’s also women.
这也是女性。
Ever since they set up maquiladoras, there’s been a huge outflow.
自从他们设立出口加工工厂以来，资金就大量外流。
The more entrepreneurial to these factories on the border, tax-free zones to assemble US components.
更有创业精神的是，这些工厂在边境、免税区组装美国零部件。
Alcoholism, what remains, the real economic stress with this huge out-migration of young people, expresses itself, as it does in a lot of people, with drinking.
酗酒，即年轻人大规模外流所带来的真正经济压力，就像许多人一样，通过饮酒表现出来。
What’s interesting, though, is not with drugs.
不过，有趣的并不是毒品。
Alcohol is this very strong constant.
酒精是一个非常强的常数。
Speaking as a Brit, to speak about other people’s alcohol consumption is slightly hypocritical, and I’m not going to really go there.
作为一个英国人，谈论别人的饮酒量有点虚伪，我不会真的去那里。
It is interesting that historically, Mexico is a hard-drinking society, and we’re going back to the colony now.
有趣的是，从历史上看，墨西哥是一个酗酒的社会，而我们现在要回到殖民地。
Say I look at India, a country with a lot of problems.
假设我看看印度，一个有很多问题的国家。
India typically grows between 4 percent to 8 percent a year, depending which numbers you believe.
印度的年增长率通常在 4% 到 8% 之间，具体取决于您相信哪个数字。
Mexico is lucky to grow at 2 percent a year.
墨西哥很幸运能够以每年 2% 的速度增长。
What accounts for the difference?
造成这种差异的原因是什么？
Where is Mexico failing?
墨西哥的失败在哪里？
Oh, I think Mexicans would see that as extraordinary success because Mexicans had the greatest demographic transition in history.
哦，我认为墨西哥人会认为这是非凡的成功，因为墨西哥人经历了历史上最伟大的人口转变。
The way you get population growth in any species is basically an S-shaped curve in the right environment.
在适当的环境下，任何物种的种群增长基本上都是 S 形曲线。
Mexico had this exceptionally steep curve.
墨西哥的曲线异常陡峭。
Its population in 1910 and 2000 increases 700 percent.
1910 年和 2000 年，其人口增加了 700%。
That is steeper than anywhere in the world.
这比世界上任何地方都陡峭。
That’s speed.
这就是速度。
What does that mean?
这意味着什么？
It means that you come to the ’70s, and just as population control starts to be a global concern, Mexico has this very joined-up state.
这意味着你来到了 70 年代，正当人口控制开始成为全球关注的问题时，墨西哥已经有了一个非常团结的国家。
It’s impoverished, but it’s pretty joined-up, and takes a look at what they see as being a problem, which is population growth, putting too much strain on state infrastructure, social services, and okay, so we need to control that ASAP.
它很贫穷，但它相当联合，并着眼于他们认为的问题，即人口增长，给国家基础设施、社会服务带来太大压力，所以我们需要尽快控制这个问题。
They put together this noncoercive campaign, unlike India.
与印度不同，他们组织了这场非强制性运动。
India identifies the same problem.
印度也发现了同样的问题。
I’m talking about per capita income growth, though.
不过，我说的是人均收入增长。
India gets a lot richer every year.
印度每年都变得更加富有。
I’m sorry.
对不起。
I thought you meant population growth.
我以为你说的是人口增长。
No.
不。
Okay, maybe we can go back to that because that also fascinates me.
好吧，也许我们可以回到那个话题，因为这也让我着迷。
Per capita income growth, again, that’s an extremely good question.
人均收入增长，这又是一个非常好的问题。
I think that Mexico has an overall impressive medium-term GDP growth.
我认为墨西哥的中期 GDP 总体增长令人印象深刻。
At the end of the ’60s, it’s the 27th-largest economy in the globe.
20世纪60年代末，它是全球第27大经济体。
Right now, it’s the 13th.
现在，已经是13号了。
The question becomes really income distribution.
问题实际上变成了收入分配。
I think that if you look at it not in question of a few years or maybe a decade, but over a longer time, Mexican economic growth has been impressive.
我认为，如果你不看几年或十年的问题，而是看更长的时间，墨西哥的经济增长令人印象深刻。
This isn’t all down to hard work or smart policy.
这并不完全取决于努力工作或明智的政策。
It’s down to the great advantage of being next door to the world’s largest market.
这要归功于毗邻全球最大市场的巨大优势。
What it does mean is that you have maybe not the extremely accelerated economic growth of right now in India, but post NAFTA, you actually do get quite a lot of quite fast takeoff, speed of growth.
它的真正含义是，印度的经济增长可能没有像现在那样极其加速，但在北美自由贸易协定之后，你实际上确实获得了相当快的起飞和增长速度。
Maybe it’s just that Mexico has actually gone a stage beyond India.
也许只是墨西哥实际上已经超越了印度一个阶段。
India is, if you want, playing catch-up.
如果你愿意的话，印度正在追赶。
That’s me thinking on my feet.
这就是我的想法。
What do you think?
你怎么认为？
I think human capital is by far the biggest problem.
我认为人力资本是迄今为止最大的问题。
Then the slow rate at which small informal businesses are willing to enter the more heavily regulated sector is a real bottleneck.
那么，小型非正规企业愿意进入监管更严格的行业的缓慢速度是一个真正的瓶颈。
Mexico has a lot of human capital.
墨西哥拥有大量的人力资本。
One of the reasons that this population control works is because you get far more people going through those critical first three years of primary school.
这种人口控制有效的原因之一是因为有更多的人度过了关键的小学前三年。
Ideally, everyone goes through high school.
理想情况下，每个人都读完高中。
But that’s just not a global reality.
但这并不是全球现实。
The key metric is how many people you’re getting through three years of school, which teach you to read, write, and do rudimentary maths.
关键指标是有多少人完成了三年的学校教育，这三年的学校教你阅读、写作和基础数学。
Mexico’s record on that is far better than most middle-income comparatives.
墨西哥在这方面的记录远远好于大多数中等收入国家。
There’s a really good study which says especially women, far more get those first three years than precisely actually in India, Kenya, and Egypt.
有一项非常好的研究表明，在印度、肯尼亚和埃及，尤其是女性，在前三年的经历比实际情况要多得多。
We’re looking now at this phase of takeoff I’m talking about, of the ’70s and ’80s.
我们现在正在关注我所说的 70 年代和 80 年代的起飞阶段。
I think the human capital is really there.
我认为人力资本确实存在。
A lot of Latin America has above-average years of schooling for their income level, but pretty low test scores, pretty low performance at the top.
许多拉丁美洲人的受教育年限高于收入水平的平均水平，但考试成绩却相当低，顶层的表现也相当低。
Just for instance, that English, even getting by in conversation in Mexico, seems to be only about 7 percent.
举例来说，即使在墨西哥，英语的使用率似乎也只有 7% 左右。
That, to me, is remarkably low, especially given how many of them migrate or wish to migrate.
对我来说，这个数字非常低，特别是考虑到他们中有多少人移民或希望移民。
I think education has failed Mexico.
我认为墨西哥的教育失败了。
Even though people, yes, they show up at the building, the teachers often aren’t good.
尽管人们，是的，他们出现在大楼里，但老师们通常都不好。
Sometimes in the pueblos, they’re not even there.
有时在普韦布洛，他们甚至不在那里。
I think that Mexicans would absolutely agree with you.
我认为墨西哥人绝对会同意你的观点。
I would beg to, in part, differ.
我想部分地表示不同意见。
The first thing I’d say is that, since forever, a key skill in migrating has precisely been English acquisition.
我要说的第一件事是，自古以来，移民的一项关键技能就是掌握英语。
Again, this is global.
再说一遍，这是全球性的。
You get this everywhere.
你到处都可以得到这个。
There’s this realization.
有这样的认识。
Migration selects the most entrepreneurial, the most dynamic, generally.
一般来说，移民会选择最具创业精神、最有活力的人。
This sector goes to the US, either preps beforehand or else learns very quickly here.
这个部门去美国，要么提前准备，要么在这里学得很快。
It’s one of the reasons that they’re economically so successful.
这是他们在经济上如此成功的原因之一。
Back in Mexico, 7 percent speaking English.
回到墨西哥，7% 的人说英语。
Do you think by global comparatives that’s low?
您认为与全球比较相比，这个数字低吗？
For a neighbor, it’s very, very low.
对于邻居来说，这是非常非常低的。
What percent of the Mexican population has lived in the US at some point?
百分之多少的墨西哥人口曾在美国居住过？
It’s got to be at least 10 percent, probably higher.
至少应该是 10%，甚至可能更高。
That, to me, is stunningly low.
对我来说，这个数字低得惊人。
I’d say that probably is part due to the urban-rural divide.
我想说这可能有一部分是城乡差距造成的。
Mexico’s population is now overwhelmingly urban.
墨西哥的人口现在绝大多数是城市人口。
It tips in 1960 for the first time.
它于 1960 年首次出现倾斜。
There’s more city dwellers than country dwellers.
城市居民多于乡村居民。
There is a chasm between education in the countryside and education in the city.
农村教育和城市教育之间存在着鸿沟。
I would be interested in those numbers if you disaggregated them down to towns of, I would say, 4,000 plus and saw how that broke down.
如果你将这些数字分解为 4,000 多个城镇，然后看看它们是如何细分的，我会对这些数字感兴趣。
Because my bet would be that you would have far higher globally comparative or even beyond rates in the cities, which, as you say, would make sense.
因为我敢打赌，你的全球比较水平会高得多，甚至超出城市的水平，正如你所说，这是有道理的。
You think, “Hold on a minute, you’ve got a country which invests by comparatives relatively well in education.
你会想，“等一下，你的国家在教育方面的投资相对比较好。
You’re a neighbor to the US.
你是美国的邻居。
Where’s the English?” Good question.
英语在哪儿？”好问题。
As I said, I would disaggregate the data before I’m taking home the idea that there is a massive failure in that specific sector of the education system.
正如我所说，在我认识到教育系统的特定部门存在巨大失败的想法之前，我会先对数据进行分类。
To return to population, why is the Mexican total fertility rate now below that of the United States?
回到人口，为什么现在墨西哥的总生育率低于美国？
Much poorer country, right?
国家更穷，对吗？
One thinks of Latin America as having high fertility, but it doesn’t anymore.
人们认为拉丁美洲的生育率很高，但现在情况并非如此。
What’s happened there?
那里发生了什么？
This, again, is the product really of two things which we’ve already been covering.
这又是我们已经讨论过的两件事的产物。
One is this really joined-up noncoercive population control of the ’70s and ’80s, which was a global model.
一是七十年代和八十年代真正联合起来的非强制性人口控制，这是一种全球模式。
Mexico hosted the global conference on this, I think twice or three times.
墨西哥主办过有关此问题的全球会议，我想已经举办过两三次了。
It got a prize from the UN.
它获得了联合国的奖励。
How could it do this compared to the rest of Latin America?
与拉丁美洲其他国家相比，它如何做到这一点？
Two things.
有两件事。
First of all, by keeping Catholicism out of political life more than almost anywhere else.
首先，比其他任何地方都更让天主教远离政治生活。
Whereas you have priests inveighing against the evils of contraception, again, across most other Latin American societies, the revolution and the 19th century before it meant that Mexico has a unique degree of separation of church and state.
尽管在大多数其他拉丁美洲社会中都有牧师猛烈抨击避孕的罪恶，但革命和 19 世纪之前的革命意味着墨西哥具有独特的政教分离程度。
The church just doesn’t say anything as the government goes about aggressively pushing the pill, condoms, et cetera.
当政府大力推销避孕药、避孕套等时，教会却什么也没说。
At this stage, the obvious question is, okay, well, hold on.
在这个阶段，显而易见的问题是，好吧，等等。
The church doesn’t say anything.
教会什么也没说。
On a micro level, inside families, conservative people, until the ’70s, the total fertility rate was nearly seven per family.
从微观层面来看，在家庭内部，保守派，直到70年代，总和生育率接近每个家庭七个。
Traditionally, having children, especially male children, is a symbol of success.
传统上，生孩子，尤其是生男孩，是成功的象征。
Economically, it used to be useful to have the spare hands.
从经济上来说，过去拥有空闲的双手是有用的。
What changes at a micro level goes back to education.
微观层面的变化可以追溯到教育。
Women who are educated have far more autonomy to say yes to contraception.
受过教育的女性在避孕方面拥有更大的自主权。
You see this really clearly in rates of uptake of the pill, which in the ’60s goes through the roof as soon as it’s available.
从药丸的服用率中你可以清楚地看到这一点，在 60 年代，药丸一上市，服用率就飙升。
We’ve got surveys from hospitals.
我们收到了来自医院的调查。
People are there.
人们就在那里。
Do you take the pill?
你吃药吗？
Yes or no?
是还是不是？
Yes, you do.
是的，你知道。
Even in really conservative societies, there’s a village which has been very studied.
即使在非常保守的社会中，也有一个村庄受到了广泛的研究。
It’s wonderful, called San Jose de Gracia in the highlands of Jalisco.
它太棒了，位于哈利斯科州高地的圣何塞德格拉西亚。
There, we’ve got this really good qualitative micro study.
在那里，我们得到了这项非常好的定性微观研究。
Women just say yes, actually, we don’t want to have 6.7 children, thank you very much, and so we will use contraception.
女方就说可以，其实我们不想生6.7个孩子，非常感谢，所以我们会采取避孕措施。
Sorry to the men, you’re just going to have to like that.
对不起，男人们，你们必须喜欢这样。
Why is that?
这是为什么？
That globally correlates to primary education and women’s primary education.
这在全球范围内与初等教育和妇女初等教育相关。
How many women, for all the flaws, are getting through the doors for those first three years?
尽管有种种缺陷，有多少女性在最初的三年里成功走出了大门？
By the end of the ’60s, it’s 73 percent.
到 60 年代末，这一比例已达到 73%。
Again, go global to what was then a band of middle-income countries; there’s nothing like it.
再次，走向全球，进入当时的中等收入国家；没有什么比这更好的了。
On doing Mexican history as a Brit
作为英国人研究墨西哥历史
Now, most historians of Mexico, they’re not British, and you are.
现在，大多数墨西哥历史学家都不是英国人，而你是。
Where were you from in Britain, and how do you think that’s shaped how you read Mexican history?
您来自英国哪里，您认为这如何影响了您阅读墨西哥历史的方式？
I know there’s a small group of British historians, and they’re rather good at what they do.
我知道有一小群英国历史学家，他们的工作相当出色。
My own story is actually not wholly British because I grew up in Ireland, in the southwest, in a county called Cork.
我自己的故事实际上并不完全是英国式的，因为我在爱尔兰西南部一个叫科克的县长大。
That’s the accent you have, by the way, so I was confused when you said you were British.
顺便说一句，这就是你的口音，所以当你说你是英国人时我很困惑。
It’s a strange mix isn’t it?
这是一个奇怪的组合，不是吗？
This fellow has an Irish accent.
这家伙有爱尔兰口音。
Yes, you’ve got a good ear.
是的，你的耳朵很好。
It’s sort of a hybrid.
这是一种混合体。
Growing up in Cork, I was supposed to give a talk last month at the university there, and I was thinking, “What can I say to link the two up?” Truth is, what I’ve been talking about, this fierce local independence, local pride, identity, this is so Cork.
我在科克长大，上个月应该在那里的大学发表演讲，我在想，“我能说些什么来将两者联系起来呢？”事实是，我一直在谈论的，这种强烈的地方独立性、地方自豪感、身份认同，这就是科克。
Cork sees itself.
科克看到了自己。
Absolutely.
绝对地。
Land, also.
陆地也。
Oh, no, totally.
哦，不，完全是。
Land, as you say, and hardship—Cork is one of the centers of the Great Hunger, the Great Famine of the 19th century.
正如你所说，土地和苦难——科克是 19 世纪大饥饿和大饥荒的中心之一。
There’s that.
就是这样。
Then I was educated in Britain, and I was lucky enough to come across the smartest historian I’d ever met, a historian of the revolution called Alan Knight.
然后我在英国接受教育，我很幸运遇到了我所见过的最聪明的历史学家，一位名叫艾伦·奈特的革命历史学家。
I was deciding what I wanted to do with my intellectual life.
我正在决定我想用我的智力生活做什么。
I met this person and thought, “Okay, that’s what I’d like to do.” Thanks to the Oxford system, I could spend one semester, entire, just working with him, just on the Mexican Revolution, and that changed everything.
我遇到了这个人，然后想：“好吧，这就是我想做的事。”感谢牛津体系，我可以花整个学期的时间和他一起研究墨西哥革命，这改变了一切。
Then there’s a flip answer, which is Mexico’s weather is a lot better than England’s.
然后还有一个翻转的答案，那就是墨西哥的天气比英国好得多。
On Guerrero
格雷罗岛
Now, when it comes to crime and violence, why is the state of Guerrero traditionally so tough, so violent, so difficult?
现在，当谈到犯罪和暴力时，为什么格雷罗州历来如此艰难、如此暴力、如此困难？
Is it just mountains?
难道只是山吗？
Is it something else?
难道是别的什么？
Low state capacity?
国家能力低下？
Ethnic groups that are there?
那里有哪些民族？
Guerrero is a place which is very dear to me.
格雷罗是一个我非常喜爱的地方。
I actually, for my doctorate, really tried to dive deep into two states, and Guerrero was one of them.
事实上，为了我的博士学位，我真的试图深入研究两个州，格雷罗就是其中之一。
I went to villages and did that level of work in various places.
我去了各个村庄，在不同的地方做了这样的工作。
In part, yes, it’s geographic determinism.
是的，部分原因是地理决定论。
It’s mountains.
这是山。
Then you say, “Hold on.
然后你说：“坚持住。
The Sierra Madre runs all the way up into the Rockies.
马德雷山脉一直延伸到落基山脉。
Can you tell us a bit more?” I think it’s because of a long tradition of the drive for political independence, exacerbated in its intensity by a large Afro-Mexican population on the coast, who are distinctly conscious that they have been discriminated against, who are good at violence.
你能告诉我们更多一点吗？”我认为这是因为长期以来追求政治独立的传统，而沿海地区的大量非洲裔墨西哥人则加剧了这一传统，他们清楚地意识到自己受到了歧视，而且擅长暴力。
I think it’s because Guerrero is next door, it’s relatively close to Mexico City.
我想这是因为格雷罗就在隔壁，离墨西哥城比较近。
It’s threatening to Mexico City in the way, say, Sonora or Yucatán isn’t so much.
它对墨西哥城的威胁比索诺拉州或尤卡坦州的威胁要小。
When some fairly oppressive conditions, you can imagine them, land monopolization, political thuggery, et cetera, combine in a state with people who really are very keen on independence and are relatively close to the city, the answer is this reinforcing cycle of repression, opposition, repression.
当一些相当压抑的条件，你可以想象它们，土地垄断，政治暴徒等等，与那些真正热衷于独立并且相对靠近城市的人们结合在一个国家中时，答案就是这种镇压，反对，镇压的强化循环。
That’s what you’ve seen in Guerrero going back really, on and off, across two centuries of Mexican independence, but specifically intensified from Porfiriato onwards.
这就是你在格雷罗州看到的情况，断断续续地追溯到墨西哥独立的两个世纪，但从波菲里亚托开始特别加强。
What’s forgotten sometimes, really interesting, is that there’s three families which really run the Guerrero coast.
有时人们会忘记，真正有趣的是，真正经营格雷罗海岸的是三个家庭。
One of them is actually American, hugely successful, major landowners.
其中之一实际上是美国的、非常成功的大地主。
You think of Guerrero as being slightly remote, et cetera.
你认为格雷罗有点偏僻，等等。
It’s also got the major port of Acapulco.
它还有阿卡普尔科的主要港口。
It’s extremely dynamic.
它非常动态。
It’s multiethnic.
这是多民族的。
There’s a lot of competition, and there’s a long history of, again, this desire to be left alone.
竞争很激烈，而且这种想要独处的愿望由来已久。
What’s your favorite part of Guerrero?
您最喜欢格雷罗州的哪一部分？
If you drive north at what’s called the Costa Grande, so you go to Acapulco, you turn right, you go up what’s called the Costa Grande, and you get to tourist towns, Zihuatanejo, Ixtapa.
如果你沿着所谓的科斯塔格兰德向北行驶，那么你就去阿卡普尔科，然后右转，沿着所谓的科斯塔格兰德行驶，然后你就可以到达旅游城镇，芝华塔尼欧，伊斯塔帕。
After about four hours of driving, you get to a place called Saladita, which is basically a restaurant with a surf break.
经过大约四个小时的车程，您到达了一个叫Saladita的地方，这基本上是一家提供冲浪休息的餐厅。
That and the village just about next door called Troncones.
那个村庄就在隔壁，名叫特隆科内斯 (Troncones)。
I spent a lot of very happy time there when I was a kid.
当我还是个孩子的时候，我在那里度过了很多非常快乐的时光。
That’s my favorite part.
这是我最喜欢的部分。
Did you spend any time in the Rio Balsas villages?
您在里奥巴尔萨斯村庄呆过吗？
No, I didn’t.
不，我没有。
There was a couple of reasons.
有几个原因。
One of the key ones was that region was perceived as being extremely dangerous while I was there.
其中一个关键因素是，当我在那里时，该地区被认为极其危险。
There were horror stories like the Egyptian consul took a wrong turn.
有一些恐怖的故事，比如埃及领事走错了路。
Instead of going along the coast, went up into that area and was killed and dismembered, completely breaking the rule that foreigners are untouchable.
没有沿着海岸走，而是到了那个地区就被杀了、肢解了，完全打破了外国人不可接触的规定。
No, I didn’t.
不，我没有。
I wouldn’t put it at the top of parts of Guerrero I would like to explore at length, either.
我也不会把它放在格雷罗州我想详细探索的部分的顶部。
Why?
为什么？
Have you been there?
你去过那里吗？
Yes, I’ve spent a lot of time there.
是的，我在那里度过了很多时间。
They’re very beautiful.
它们非常漂亮。
I used to go there to buy amates and pottery.
我以前常去那里买东西和陶器。
The road in can be tricky, but they’re very safe once you get there.
进去的路可能很棘手，但一旦你到达那里就非常安全。
Which period are we talking about with that?
我们谈论的是哪个时期？
I was mostly there in the ’90s and early 2000s, which was safer than today.
我主要是在 90 年代和 2000 年代初期呆在那里，那时比现在安全。
You and me both.
你和我都是。
Then they were completely safe.
然后他们就完全安全了。
No problems whatsoever.
没有任何问题。
That was one of the roads, like the Costa Grande, where you were told, “Okay, between basically dawn and dusk, it’s not too bad as a sort of roll of the dice, but from dusk to dawn, that would be foolish to travel.”
那是其中一条路，就像科斯塔格兰德一样，在那里你被告知，“好吧，基本上在黎明和黄昏之间，就像掷骰子一样，这还不算太糟糕，但从黄昏到黎明，旅行就太愚蠢了。”
Lack of a guardrail would worry me as much as anything.
没有护栏会让我最担心。
For Nahuatl-speaking villages, it’s the best place to go in Mexico, I think, that I know of.
据我所知，对于说纳瓦特尔语的村庄来说，这是墨西哥最好的去处。
There and, I would say, the northern Sierra of Puebla is also strong concentrations.
我想说的是，普埃布拉北部山脉也是集中地区。
Was that just for the off-the-beaten-track fascination, or was there a specific reason which took you there?
这只是为了对人迹罕至的迷恋，还是有什么特殊原因让你来到这里？
I ended up writing a book about it, but mostly for art collecting.
我最终写了一本关于它的书，但主要是为了艺术收藏。
One comes to have friends in these places, as I’m sure you have too.
人们会在这些地方交到朋友，我相信你也一样。
You want to visit them, and they regard you as a family or compadre, whatever you’d call it.
你想去拜访他们，他们会把你视为家人或战友，无论你怎么称呼它。
I’m glad I wasn’t more rude about it than I was already.
我很高兴我没有比以前更加粗鲁。
It’s a tough place.
这是一个艰难的地方。
Your living standard, once you arrive, is extremely low.
一旦你到达，你的生活水平是非常低的。
The place I spent longest in is a village in the north called Ixcateopan, about an hour and a half drive, at least back then, out of Taxco, where a lot of people go.
我呆的时间最长的地方是北部一个叫伊克斯卡托潘的村庄，距离塔斯科大约一个半小时车程，至少在当时是这样，那里有很多人去。
It’s a silver city.
这是一座银色的城市。
Ixcateopan was about 1,500 people then, really very poor, one cafe on the main square, and actual very little else.
伊克斯卡托潘当时大约有 1,500 人，真的很穷，主广场上只有一家咖啡馆，其他的东西就很少了。
I ended up like a feeble foreigner going with a little camping stove and many cans of Campbell’s soup, tuna fish, and saltines.
我最终就像一个虚弱的外国人，带着一个小野营炉和许多罐坎贝尔汤、金枪鱼和盐。
Those parts of the countryside, then, you had endemic threats to your stomach.
那么，在农村的那些地区，你的胃会受到地方性威胁。
On Michoacán violence
关于米却肯州的暴力事件
Now, 30 years ago, I would not have thought, did not think that Michoacán would end up so violent, and yet it has.
现在，30 年前，我不会想到、不会想到米却肯州会变得如此暴力，但事实却如此。
What’s the story in that state?
那个州有什么故事？
First of all, me neither.
首先，我也不是。
The story in that state is a combination of production and transshipment.
该州的故事是生产和转运的结合。
For transshipment, you’ve got the port of Lázaro Cárdenas, which is a huge port that is a total white elephant.
对于转运，你可以选择拉萨罗卡德纳斯港，这是一个巨大的港口，完全是一个白象。
It was built in the ’70s as a way of honoring the great revolutionary leader, Cárnas.
它建于 70 年代，是为了纪念伟大的革命领袖卡纳斯 (Cárnas)。
It was not connected ever to anything, really.
实际上，它与任何东西都没有联系。
You’ve got this fantastic infrastructure for both coastal but also trans-Pacific trade.
无论是沿海贸易还是跨太平洋贸易，您都拥有出色的基础设施。
It’s a very good place to begin precursors, and fentanyl, more recently, precursors for meth.
这是一个非常好的开始前体的地方，芬太尼，最近是冰毒的前体。
That’s part of the transshipment.
这是转运的一部分。
It’s also that whole Pacific coast, obviously, is a major transshipment zone.
显然，整个太平洋沿岸都是一个主要的转运区。
There’s also the production.
还有制作。
Methamphetamine is large recently, but in the highlands also, heroin, poppy, and marijuana.
甲基苯丙胺最近很流行，但在高地，海洛因、罂粟和大麻也很流行。
You’ve got the avocado industry, huge prize for extortion, which is increasingly many drug-trading organizations’ principal or major part of their portfolio.
鳄梨产业是勒索的巨额奖金，它已成为越来越多毒品交易组织的主要或主要部分。
Avocado farmers and lime farmers are great to extort.
牛油果种植者和酸橙种植者很容易被勒索。
Then, finally, we come back to one of my favorite themes, mountains.
最后，我们回到我最喜欢的主题之一：山脉。
It is quite easy to hide things like meth labs, and it’s quite easy to kill soldiers who come looking for you.
隐藏冰毒实验室之类的东西很容易，杀死来找你的士兵也很容易。
Michoacán is made for guerrilla warfare.
米却肯州是为游击战而生的。
It’s a combination of a place where you can produce a lot of excellent illicit goods, you can transship them, and you can kill state actors who come after you and make Michoacán this center of violence.
在这里你可以生产大量优质的非法商品，你可以转运它们，你可以杀死追随你的国家行为者，使米却肯州成为暴力中心。
The final piece is, over all these resources, it’s been a frontline over different cartels, shifting over the last 20 years as cartels come and go, but it’s never had that single organization dominance, which makes places safe.
最后一点是，在所有这些资源中，它一直是不同卡特尔的前线，在过去 20 年里随着卡特尔的更迭而变化，但它从未有过单一组织的主导地位，这使得地方安全。
On Monterrey
关于蒙特雷
Now, in your model of how Mexico is evolving, as you know, Monterrey is quite a wealthy part of Mexico, and it’s growing.
现在，在您关于墨西哥如何发展的模型中，如您所知，蒙特雷是墨西哥相当富裕的地区，而且正在增长。
Twenty years from now, will that just be safe and normal, or is it still going to be in this in-between state where you have to worry what road you’re on, are you too close to the border, or will it just all be fine because of the wealth?
二十年后，这会是安全和正常的，还是仍然处于这种中间状态，你必须担心你走哪条路，你是否离边境太近，还是因为财富而一切都好？
Already, Monterrey is one of the places where I would feel really quite safe.
蒙特雷已经是我感到非常安全的地方之一。
In town, but out of town, right?
在城里，但在城外，对吗？
You have to ask questions.
你必须提出问题。
Nuevo Leon, the state, it’s not frontline.
新莱昂州，不是前线。
These things, as you imply, shift rapidly.
正如你所暗示的，这些事情正在迅速变化。
Until quite recently, Colima, Pacific coastal state, was really quite tranquil.
直到最近，太平洋沿岸国家科利马州还非常平静。
It’s now the most violent state in Mexico.
它现在是墨西哥最暴力的州。
Until two years ago, Sinaloa, because it was controlled by a single drug trading organization, the Sinaloa cartel, was also counterintuitively really quite safe.
直到两年前，锡那罗亚州因为由单一毒品交易组织锡那罗亚卡特尔控制，也与直觉相反，非常安全。
It’s not anymore because there’s then transcend war.
现在不再是这样了，因为那时有超越战争。
Look at that.
看看那个。
Monterrey, I think it’s very bad business to have a war over drugs in somewhere which doesn’t grow them, somewhere which isn’t important to transshipment, and somewhere where there are such fantastic possibilities of extortion, middle and small-income businesses.
蒙特雷，我认为在不种植毒品的地方、对转运不重要的地方、以及存在敲诈勒索、中小型收入企业的巨大可能性的地方爆发毒品战争是非常糟糕的事情。
I would already be quite happy around Nuevo Leon.
我在新莱昂州已经很开心了。
I would predict because of those structural factors, nothing to grow, little to tranship, and the wealth you point out, it will continue thus.
我预测，由于这些结构性因素，没有什么可种植的，几乎没有可转运的，以及你指出的财富，它将继续如此。
In 20 years, I would hope with an even greater sense of security in the countryside around it.
20年后，我希望周围的乡村有更大的安全感。
On judicial reforms
论司法改革
Now, the recent judicial reforms, which spilled over into the more recent administration, a lot of outsiders said, “That’s taking away the independence of the Mexican judiciary.” Do you agree, or how bad is it, or does it not matter much?
现在，最近的司法改革蔓延到了最近的政府，许多局外人表示，“这正在剥夺墨西哥司法机构的独立性。”你同意吗？或者情况有多糟糕，或者并不重要？
What’s your sense?
你的感觉是什么？
I think it matters greatly.
我认为这非常重要。
I always found it strange, the idea of electing any judicial official.
我总是觉得选举任何司法官员的想法很奇怪。
When I moved to the US, I thought, “Hold on, you do what?” The idea of electing judges is a really poor idea, I think, in Mexico because of the interest of local drug-trading organizations in having sympathetic judges.
当我搬到美国时，我想，“等等，你做什么？”我认为，在墨西哥选举法官的想法非常糟糕，因为当地毒品交易组织希望拥有富有同情心的法官。
It’s a lot lower cost to get them elected than to threaten them.
让他们当选的成本比威胁他们要低得多。
Judges are people who it’s generally a bad idea to kill.
法官是一般来说杀掉是个坏主意的人。
The state doesn’t like it.
国家不喜欢这样。
It happens really regularly, but still quite a high-risk strategy as opposed to just having them in your pocket.
这种情况确实经常发生，但与仅仅将它们放在口袋里相比，这仍然是一个相当高风险的策略。
While electoral turnout across Mexico is admirably high and remarkable, judicial elections have just been the glaring exception to that.
尽管墨西哥各地的选举投票率高得令人钦佩且引人注目，但司法选举却是一个明显的例外。
I think turnout was 13 percent.
我认为投票率为 13%。
I think that in itself is a condemnation of the whole project.
我认为这本身就是对整个项目的谴责。
While recognizing longstanding flaws in the Mexican judicial system, this is, I think, a disastrous reform.
虽然认识到墨西哥司法系统长期存在的缺陷，但我认为这是一项灾难性的改革。
Why did they do it then?
他们当时为什么这么做？
They did it, I think, because of a desire to get the current dominant party, Morena, really further dug into regional power by having sympathetic judiciary.
我认为，他们这样做是因为希望通过拥有富有同情心的司法机构，让当前的执政党莫雷纳真正进一步挖掘地区权力。
I think that Morena’s local and regional activists were very keen on it.
我认为莫雷纳当地和地区的活动人士对此非常热衷。
I think it was philosophical populism as well from the AMLO government.
我认为这也是奥夫拉多尔政府的哲学民粹主义。
It’s one of the most unfortunate things I’ve seen come out of Mexican politics in the last decade.
这是过去十年来我在墨西哥政治中看到的最不幸的事情之一。
On the best Mexican film, music and novel
墨西哥最佳电影、音乐和小说
For our last segment, just some rapid-fire questions about Mexico.
在我们的最后一部分中，只有一些关于墨西哥的快速问题。
What’s your favorite Mexican movie?
你最喜欢的墨西哥电影是什么？
I’m going to say Silent Light, but your view may differ.
我会说《寂静之光》，但你的观点可能会有所不同。
Anything with María Félix in it.
任何有玛丽亚·菲利克斯在里面的东西。
Name one.
说出一个。
Doña Bárbara, superb.
多纳·芭芭拉，太棒了。
I’d also say, though, more recently, Y Tu Mamá También.
不过，最近我也会说，Y Tu Mamá También。
That’s a great film.
那是一部很棒的电影。
It’s difficult to stop laughing at.
很难停止笑。
Three Burials of Melquiades Estrada, I like very much.
梅尔基亚德斯·埃斯特拉达的三座墓葬，我非常喜欢。
I think that the black, dark humor there is profoundly Mexican.
我认为那里的黑色幽默具有深刻的墨西哥特色。
I think that’s one of the reasons why the British can really appreciate Mexico, is we’ve got a similarly dark sense of humor.
我认为这就是英国人真正欣赏墨西哥的原因之一，因为我们有类似的黑色幽默感。
Now, Howard Stern was famously rude about Mexican music.
现在，霍华德·斯特恩对墨西哥音乐的粗鲁是出了名的。
What in it do you like best?
你最喜欢其中的什么？
I like the fact that they do superb girly pop.
我喜欢他们演奏出色的少女流行音乐。
That’s terrible, but they have really good, from the last 20 years, women singers who are extremely intelligent, tuneful, dynamic, varied.
这很糟糕，但从过去 20 年来看，她们确实拥有优秀的女歌手，她们非常聪明、优美、充满活力、多变。
I’m thinking specifically of Julieta Venegas and Natalia Lafourcade—the latter, and this is in my book—wrote a song back in the year 2000, which is a hilarious reflection on her sister’s pregnancy, the state of the world, and called the First Lady of Mexico a racist worm.
我特别想到朱丽叶·维内加斯（Julieta Venegas）和娜塔莉亚·拉福卡德（Natalia Lafourcade）——后者，这在我的书中——在 2000 年写了一首歌，这首歌对她姐姐的怀孕和世界现状进行了搞笑的反思，并称墨西哥第一夫人是种族主义者。
This is music that is thought-provoking and tuneful.
这是一首发人深省、旋律优美的音乐。
I like that.
我喜欢这样。
At its best, it’s a very clever music.
在最好的情况下，这是一首非常聪明的音乐。
For me, at its worst, with apologies to everybody who likes Los Tigres Del Norte, Norteño music, I cannot stand recorded.
对我来说，在最糟糕的情况下，向所有喜欢 Los Tigres Del Norte、Norteño 音乐的人道歉，我无法忍受被录音。
If you’ve ever heard it live, in a night spot, suddenly the polkas, the wheezing, the songs which are a Mexican version of gangster rap, you think, “Actually, yes, this is quite good.” I was in Ensenada a couple of years ago, and I’m in this bar with a masked guy with an M16 on the door and three Norteño bands inside, and it was fabulous.
如果你曾经在夜场现场听过，突然间响起波尔卡舞曲、喘息声、墨西哥版黑帮说唱歌曲，你会想，“实际上，是的，这相当不错。”几年前我在恩塞纳达 (Ensenada)，当时我和一个戴着面具的家伙在酒吧里，门上挂着一把 M16，里面有三支 Norteño 乐队，那真是太棒了。
Even my least favorite has some legs to it.
即使是我最不喜欢的也有一些优点。
It can be very good fun and very evocative.
它可以非常有趣并且非常令人回味。
What’s the great classic Mexican novel?
墨西哥最伟大的经典小说是什么？
It has to be La Muerte de Artemio Cruz, The Death of Artemio Cruz.
一定是《La Muerte de Artemio Cruz》，《阿特米奥·克鲁兹之死》。
Pedro Páramo, for me, or even Savage Detectives.
佩德罗·帕拉莫（Pedro Páramo），对我来说，甚至是《野蛮侦探》（Savage Detectives）。
I know Bolaño is from Chile, but to me, it’s a Mexican novel.
我知道波拉尼奥来自智利，但对我来说，这是一本墨西哥小说。
Totally, and I’m glad you say that because Savage Detectives is very much a sort of insider’s novel of Mexico.
完全可以，我很高兴你这么说，因为《野蛮侦探》在很大程度上是一部墨西哥内部人士的小说。
The mockery of the UNAM, and specifically its faculty of law and philosophy, is just so spot on, and yet, in part because it is so close to what I study, which is the mystery of the origins of the one-party state and the PRI.
对墨西哥国立自治大学，特别是其法律和哲学学院的嘲讽是如此恰到好处，但部分原因是它与我所研究的内容非常接近，即一党制国家和革命制度党的起源之谜。
In part, also, I think it’s one of the first Mexican novels I read, and things you read or things you listen to between the ages of 14 and 18, they mark you and stay with you, fairly or unfairly.
在某种程度上，我认为这是我读的第一本墨西哥小说之一，你在 14 岁到 18 岁之间读过或听过的东西，它们会在你身上留下印记，并陪伴你，无论公平与否。
Why Artemio Cruz as your pick?
为什么选择阿特米奥·克鲁兹？
Artemio Cruz, because of the real human complexity of it.
阿特米奥·克鲁兹，因为它真正的人类复杂性。
It’s the story of a young revolutionary who manages, through violence, luck, business smarts, extortion, to move from very poor beginnings to being a major Mexican mogul.
这是一个年轻革命者的故事，他通过暴力、运气、商业智慧和敲诈勒索，从贫穷的出身成为墨西哥大亨。
The story skips between his life in decadent old age—and he’s made it, but in a classic sort of the hollowness of wealth down.
故事在他颓废的晚年生活之间跳跃——他已经成功了，但是以一种经典的财富空虚的方式。
He’s made it, but in human times, he’s totally emptied.
他做到了，但在人类时代，他完全空虚了。
Then the beginning, the story, if he got there, I find it so moving, so tragic, and so deeply evocative of the Mexico I read about, the Mexico I study.
然后是故事的开头，如果他到了那里，我会发现它是如此感人，如此悲惨，如此深刻地唤起了我读到的、我研究的墨西哥。
I say, if I’d read it 10 years later, who knows?
我说，如果十年后我再读它，谁知道呢？
If I’d read it last year, I might actually be ranking it below the recent novels of Álvaro Enrigue, who two novels really stick out.
如果我去年读过这本书，我实际上可能会把它排在阿尔瓦罗·恩里格最近的小说之后，他的两部小说确实很突出。
One is like a modern Muerte de Artemio Cruz; it’s called Decency, Decencia, which anybody who likes Mexican humor, likes Mexico City, will just get.
一个就像现代的阿特米奥·克鲁兹之死（Muerte de Artemio Cruz）；它被称为 Decency, Decencia，任何喜欢墨西哥幽默、喜欢墨西哥城的人都会得到它。
The other is You Dreamed of Empires in English, which is a retelling of the conquest as this glorified heist by a bunch of fortunate thugs, which I think most historians would agree with, and has some twists in it which are stunning.
另一本是英文版的《你梦想帝国》，它重述了这场由一群幸运的暴徒进行的光荣抢劫，我认为大多数历史学家都会同意这一点，并且其中有一些令人震惊的曲折。
Alvaro, of course, has the advantage of he actually reads quite a lot of history.
当然，阿尔瓦罗的优势在于他确实读了很多历史。
When he writes history, the details are there, and you find yourself nodding, “Oh, yes.
当他写历史时，细节就在那里，你会发现自己点头，“哦，是的。
I can believe that.”
我可以相信这一点。”
Ezra Klein is a big fan of the conquest book.
埃兹拉·克莱因是征服这本书的忠实粉丝。
I think it did very well, and I can see why.
我认为它做得很好，我明白为什么。
It was clever, it was complex, it was provocative, and it had a killer twist to it.
它很聪明，很复杂，很挑衅，而且有一个致命的转折。
What’s not to like?
有什么不喜欢的？
On the best trip around Mexico
墨西哥最佳旅行
Let’s say an educated person comes to you.
假设一个受过教育的人来找你。
They live in the United States, and they have two weeks to spend, and they want to learn Mexico, but put aside Mexico City and put aside the ruins.
他们住在美国，还有两周的时间，他们想了解墨西哥，但抛开墨西哥城，抛开废墟。
They want to learn Mexico proper.
他们想了解墨西哥本身。
Where do you send them?
你把它们送到哪里？
What’s the ideal Mexico trip?
理想的墨西哥旅行是什么样的？
I’m thinking ideal in terms of educational.
我认为在教育方面是理想的。
Yes, but it should be fun and interesting too, right?
是的，但它也应该很有趣，对吧？
I would send them across the border in California, in Tijuana.
我会把他们送到加利福尼亚州蒂华纳的边境。
I would then tell them to fly to, I think, probably Zacatecas, because the Baroque splendor of Mexico, it’s not captured anywhere with the same intensity.
然后我会告诉他们飞往，我想，可能是萨卡特卡斯，因为墨西哥的巴洛克辉煌，没有任何地方能够以同样的强度捕捉到。
This was the center of the wealth-producing world.
这是创造财富的世界的中心。
It had the biggest mine in the world under the colony.
它在殖民地下拥有世界上最大的矿井。
That translated into this absolutely—it’s beyond words.
这绝对是无法用言语表达的。
Architecture, it’s stunning.
建筑，真是令人惊叹。
You get buildings.
你得到建筑物。
There’s a style called the Churrigueresque, where every inch is carved with extraordinary detail.
有一种风格称为 Churrigueresque，每一寸都雕刻着非凡的细节。
I think Tijuana, Zacatecas.
我认为蒂华纳、萨卡特卡斯。
From Zacatecas, I’d go to a town called Aguas Calientes.
从萨卡特卡斯出发，我会去一个叫阿瓜斯卡连特斯的小镇。
I would make sure to go there during the annual feria, which is notable for two things, apart from the fact that it’s a great week-long party.
我一定会在一年一度的狂欢节期间去那里，除了这是一个为期一周的精彩聚会之外，这还有两件事值得注意。
One is you get some of the best bull fights in Mexico.
一是您可以观看墨西哥最好的斗牛场。
Two is this is one of the very few times when gambling is legal temporarily there.
二是这是赌博暂时合法的极少数情况之一。
When you combine that, again, it’s a pretty colonial town.
当你再次结合起来时，它是一个漂亮的殖民城镇。
I’d make sure and go and see that symphony orchestra, which is superb, Argentine conductor.
我一定会去看看那个交响乐团，这是一位非常棒的阿根廷指挥家。
From Aguas Calientes, I think I’d take a plane and go to—I’m trying to do maths now—three days in each place.
从阿瓜斯卡连特斯出发，我想我会坐飞机去——我现在正在尝试做数学——每个地方待三天。
Nine days, two more cities.
九天，还有两个城市。
I would go to Xalapa in Veracruz precisely because it’s particularly untouristed for its quality as a city and the surroundings are beautiful temperate climate.
我之所以会去韦拉克鲁斯州的哈拉帕，正是因为它作为一个城市的品质而特别缺乏游客，而且周围的环境是美丽的温带气候。
Then the final one is really cramming things in.
然后最后一关就真的是塞东西了。
I’d hope to have a private jet on this or else a driver.
我希望能有一架私人飞机，或者是一名司机。
I would go to San Cristóbal de las Casas, the colonial capital of Chiapas.
我会去圣克里斯托瓦尔德拉斯卡萨斯，恰帕斯州的殖民首府。
Great trip.
很棒的旅行。
Last two questions.
最后两个问题。
First, what’s the best Mexican restaurant in or near Chicago?
首先，芝加哥或附近最好的墨西哥餐厅是哪家？
In or near Chicago, I’m not sure, for the simple reason my family’s actually based in New York.
我不确定是在芝加哥还是附近，原因很简单，我的家人实际上住在纽约。
When I go out for dinner, it’s usually in New York.
当我出去吃饭时，通常是在纽约。
In or near New York, then?
那么在纽约或附近吗？
Oh, now that’s great because I just found a place.
哦，那太好了，因为我刚刚找到了一个地方。
East Harlem or where?
东哈林区还是哪里？
No, it’s downtown.
不，这是市中心。
It’s called Santo Taco, and it’s a taqueria which is exceptional.
它叫 Santo Taco，是一家很特别的墨西哥快餐店。
In case you find that to be inverse snobbery, I would say that underneath the taqueria, there’s a hidden, quite smart restaurant.
如果你觉得这是一种逆势利，我想说的是，在墨西哥快餐店的下面，有一家隐藏的、相当聪明的餐厅。
It’s almost a sort of speakeasy restaurant.
这几乎是一种地下餐厅。
Both of them are superb, and I intend spending a lot of time in both of them.
两者都很棒，我打算在两者上花费很多时间。
That’s my answer for New York.
这就是我对纽约的回答。
Get to Santo Taco and have two of that.
去 Santo Taco 吃两份吧。
You have to try two.
你必须尝试两个。
One is their mushroom taco, which is a revelation, and the other is their carnitas.
一个是他们的蘑菇炸玉米饼，这是一个启示，另一个是他们的卡尼塔。
That’s it.
就是这样。
Before the last question, just to plug your book again, Mexico: A 500-Year History.
在最后一个问题之前，我想再次插入你的书《墨西哥：五百年的历史》。
Everyone should buy and read it.
每个人都应该购买并阅读它。
Finally, last question: What is it you will do next?
最后，最后一个问题：你接下来要做什么？
I’m writing a book which is a prehistory of money laundering.
我正在写一本关于洗钱史前史的书。
It’s based on a document I found in the British Foreign Office, which is a query from a director of the great bullion dealers Johnson Matthey.
它基于我在英国外交部找到的一份文件，该文件是大型金银交易商庄信万丰 (Johnson Matthey) 董事的询问。
It says, “I’ve just been in touch with a person on a steamship lying off in the Channel Islands who has £5 million worth of illicit Mexican government silver on board.
上面写着：“我刚刚与一艘停泊在海峡群岛的轮船上的一个人取得了联系，船上有价值 500 万英镑的非法墨西哥政府白银。
I’d like to buy it pennies on the pound.
我想花几分钱买它。
What would your advice be?” The first bit of advice is check that the silver actually exists and don’t tell the Mexican government.
你的建议是什么？第一条建议是检查白银是否确实存在，并且不要告诉墨西哥政府。
I would like to know what happened next at that end because I think I know at the Mexican end where it came from and how it got onto the ship in New York Harbor.
我想知道那一端接下来发生了什么，因为我想我知道在墨西哥一端它来自哪里以及它如何登上纽约港的船上。
I’m hoping to reconstruct using Mexican, American, there’s FBI involvement, and British archives as much as I can, the path of the silver in this decade, the first great decade of money laundering, which is the 1920s.
我希望尽可能地利用墨西哥、美国、联邦调查局的介入和英国档案来重建白银在这十年中的发展轨迹，这是洗钱的第一个伟大十年，即 1920 年代。
Paul Gillingham, thank you very much.
保罗·吉林厄姆，非常感谢你。
Tyler, it’s been a pleasure.
泰勒，很高兴。
Thank you for the invitation.
感谢您的邀请。