Nate Silver on Life’s Mixed Strategies (Ep. 251)
Thanks to a listener who sponsored this transcript “in memory of Eileen Thompson, my beloved aunt who would have appreciated Mercatus and its mission.”
感谢一位听众赞助了这份文字记录，“以纪念艾琳·汤普森，我心爱的阿姨，她会欣赏 Mercatus 及其使命。”
Hello, everyone.
大家好。
Welcome to Conversations with Tyler.
欢迎来到与泰勒对话。
Today, I’m chatting with Nate Silver live in New York.
今天，我在纽约与内特·西尔弗 (Nate Silver) 现场聊天。
We are here to commemorate the paperback edition of Nate’s On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything, a book that last year, I described sincerely as absolute fun on every page.
我们来这里是为了纪念内特的《边缘：冒险的艺术》的平装版，去年我真诚地形容这本书的每一页都绝对有趣。
We’re also going to revisit some of our earlier predictions from a year ago and nine years ago, and talk about everything I want to talk about.
我们还将回顾一年前和九年前的一些早期预测，并讨论我想讨论的所有内容。
Nate, welcome.
内特，欢迎。
Tyler, always a pleasure.
泰勒，总是很高兴。
At current margins, do you learn anything from studying expected utility theory?
在目前的利润水平上，你从研究预期效用理论中学到了什么吗？
Well, I probably spend a tenth of my time playing poker, and certainly in that respect, you’re quite explicit about calculating things like that.
嗯，我可能花了十分之一的时间玩扑克，当然在这方面，你对计算这样的事情非常明确。
But you are learning new ideas, new theories, new concepts?
但你正在学习新思想、新理论、新概念吗？
Or you’re just applying what you learned, say, 13 years ago, whenever?
或者你只是应用你所学到的东西，比如 13 年前的任何时候？
No, it still feels fresh to me.
不，我还是觉得新鲜。
When I’ve talked about the book to people, people understand the expected value part.
当我向人们谈论这本书时，人们理解了预期价值部分。
That’s easily explicable to economics 101 people.
这对经济学 101 人来说很容易解释。
I think the equilibrium part — solve for the equilibrium — is something that people don’t get as much.
我认为平衡部分 ——“求解平衡”——人们不太了解。
It’s like what’s the equilibrium that should emerge, given everyone has their incentives to play this hand optimally, so to speak.
可以这么说，鉴于每个人都有最佳发挥这手牌的动机，应该出现什么平衡。
Or everyone has different incentives, but they’re all being rational in some capacity.
或者每个人都有不同的动机，但他们在某种程度上都是理性的。
That kind of thing I think about a lot when it comes to even online discourse, for example.
例如，当涉及到在线言论时，我会经常思考这种事情。
Why are people behaving a certain way on Twitter or X, for example?
例如，为什么人们在 Twitter 或 X 上有某种特定的行为方式？
Let’s say random Nash equilibria — do you take that seriously?
假设随机纳什均衡 — 你认真对待这个问题吗？
It seems to hold with soccer kicks, but in poker, anything you do — do you ever use the concept?
这似乎适用于足球，但在扑克中，无论你做什么 - 你曾经使用过这个概念吗？
Oh, sure.
哦，当然。
I will literally randomize sometimes.
有时我会随机进行。
Where you look at the tournament clock, and if it’s a high number, then you’ll bluff, and if it’s a low number, then you’ll play more passively, for example.
例如，你查看比赛时钟，如果数字很高，那么你会虚张声势，如果数字很低，那么你会玩得更被动。
You can look at the rotation of your chips or things like that.
您可以查看筹码的旋转或类似的东西。
Do you think some of the other people do it too?
你认为其他一些人也这么做吗？
Yes.
是的。
You can tell there’s a certain look.
你可以看出有一种特定的外观。
You see people are looking up at the clock, and it looks like they’re daydreaming, and they’re waiting for a number.
你看到人们抬头看着时钟，看起来他们在做白日梦，他们在等待号码。
You can rotate your cards.
您可以轮换您的卡片。
One thing people didn’t realize until they actually solved the Nash equilibrium for poker is how many mixed strategies there are.
在真正解决扑克的纳什均衡之前，人们没有意识到一件事是有多少种混合策略。
Basically, every hand is a mix of some kind.
基本上，每手牌都是某种类型的混合。
The flip side to that is that if you have any tell or read on your opponent at all, you move from literal indifference toward a dominant strategy in that context.
另一面是，如果你对对手有任何了解或解读，你就会从字面上的冷漠转向在这种情况下的占优策略。
So, I believe actually reading players’ tells, picking up on the moment, and how you are perceived and how your table image shifts a lot.
所以，我相信要真正阅读玩家的讲述，了解当时的情况，以及人们如何看待你以及你的牌桌形象如何发生很大的变化。
But no, poker has gone further than anything else in the literal manifestation of game theory in real life.
但事实并非如此，从博弈论在现实生活中的字面表现来看，扑克比其他任何东西都走得更远。
You also see it in football and things like that.
你也可以在足球和类似的事情中看到它。
I’m working on an NFL model now.
我现在正在研究 NFL 模型。
I wonder if NFL teams are optimally mixing up their strategies, for example, but you see it there.
例如，我想知道 NFL 球队是否正在最佳地混合他们的策略，但你在那里看到了这一点。
A draw play on third and long, has a higher expected value because it’s not expected and because you’re supposed to always pass there.
第三个和长处的平局具有更高的期望值，因为它不是预期的，而且因为你应该总是通过那里。
Economics is amazing in the sense that it predicts human behavior, I think, fairly well when you have repeated trials and people that have good feedback and incentive to be optimal.
我认为，当你进行重复试验并且人们有良好的反馈和激励去达到最佳状态时，经济学是令人惊奇的，因为它可以很好地预测人类行为。
Your ability to read tells — does it help you at all in real life?
你的阅读能力表明 — 它对你在现实生活中有帮助吗？
And if so, how?
如果是这样，怎么办？
There’s probably some people-reading, but it’s very specific.
可能有一些人阅读，但非常具体。
I was on the subway getting here.
我乘地铁来到这里。
I didn’t have a seat on the train.
我在火车上没有座位。
I was like, “Oh, that person’s going to stand up.
我当时想，“哦，那个人会站起来。
I can tell.” I was wrong.
我看得出来。”我错了。
The tells are not always 100 percent reliable.
这些说法并不总是 100% 可靠。
If someone wants to learn how to read tells, other than just say, playing a lot of poker or doing the thing, how do they do that?
如果有人想学习如何阅读故事，而不仅仅是说、玩很多扑克或做某事，他们会怎么做？
I think there is not a substitute for how it correlates to real-world scenarios, because it’s so contextual and semantic.
我认为它与现实世界场景的关联是无可替代的，因为它是如此的上下文和语义。
I was at the World Series for most of June.
六月的大部分时间我都在参加世界职业棒球大赛。
Played in the main event, which is a $10,000 tournament.
参加主赛事，奖金为 10,000 美元。
There was a guy who had a very rapid heartbeat.
有一个人心跳非常快。
You could see his carotid artery.
你可以看到他的颈动脉。
His heart’s beating in his neck.
他的心脏在脖子上跳动。
That’s obviously often a tell.
这显然经常是一个说明。
However, some people get more nervous when they’re bluffing; some get more nervous when they have a strong hand.
然而，有些人在虚张声势时会变得更加紧张；有些人在拿到强牌时会变得更加紧张。
So, you have to correlate that with behavior, and that’s contextual.
所以，你必须将其与行为联系起来，这就是情境。
The fact that he was an intermediate player and not a really good player or a complete novice — fish, we call them in poker.
事实上，他只是一个中级玩家，而不是一个真正的优秀玩家，也不是一个完全的新手——我们在扑克中称他们为鱼。
You’re building up an implicit database in your head just by watching a lot, including watching when you’re not involved in a hand.
通过大量观察，包括在不参与牌局时的观察，你就在头脑中建立了一个隐式数据库。
In poker, you’re folding most of the time.
在扑克中，你大部分时间都在弃牌。
I’m watching people and making a little prediction, “Oh, that feels strong,” something he did.
我观察着人们并做出了一些预测，“哦，这感觉很强烈”，他就是这么做的。
Then, if you’re right 60 percent of the time — 60 percent instead of 50 percent random — that’s a huge edge.
然后，如果你在 60% 的时间里是正确的 —— 60% 而不是 50% 随机 —— 那就是一个巨大的优势。
In gambling, any 55 percent-45 percent edge is enormous; 60 percent-40 percent or 65 percent-35 percent will make you a very winning player.
在赌博中，任何 55%-45% 的优势都是巨大的； 60%-40% 或 65%-35% 将使您成为一名非常成功的玩家。
If you’re watching an NBA game, is there any meaningful way in which you can read tells, like, “Oh, Luka has a bad attitude tonight.”
如果您正在观看 NBA 比赛，是否有任何有意义的方式可以让您阅读诸如“哦，卢卡今晚态度不好”之类的内容。
You can tell from the body language of a team sometimes.
有时你可以从团队的肢体语言中看出。
I had a fairly good year betting the NBA playoffs.
我在 NBA 季后赛投注方面度过了相当不错的一年。
I’m like, “Does the team have it tonight?” That should be, in principle, actionable, I would think.
我想，“球队今晚有吗？”我认为，原则上这应该是可行的。
You would think that markets might pick up on that.
你可能会认为市场可能会接受这一点。
There are things like, this team is tired.
有些事情，比如，这支球队很累。
They don’t have the personnel.
他们没有人员。
The nuggets in that .
其中的金块。
.
。
.
。
They’re a great team.
他们是一支很棒的团队。
They beat my expectations, but they’re not going to be able to keep up with this team for four quarters.
他们超出了我的预期，但他们无法在四个季度内跟上这支球队的步伐。
But that’s not a physical read so much as .
但这与其说是实体阅读。
.
。
.
。
again, it’s a little bit of physical observation and a lot of priors in context.
再说一次，这需要一点物理观察和大量的先验知识。
On academic influence
论学术影响力
What was the last interesting thing you learned from the academic political science literature?
您从政治学学术文献中学到的最后一件有趣的事情是什么？
Oh boy, this is going to seem like an insult.
哦，天哪，这看起来像是一种侮辱。
COWEN: No, no, we’re all for insults here.
COWEN：不，不，我们都支持侮辱。
Look, I read a lot of Substacks and things like that.
看，我读了很多子堆栈之类的东西。
Oh, my gosh.
哦，天哪。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I think that might be the right answer, to be clear.
明确地说，我认为这可能是正确的答案。
I think in some ways, what has come out of academic circles has been interesting.
我认为在某些方面，学术界的研究成果很有趣。
I think effective altruism has been interesting, for example.
例如，我认为有效的利他主义很有趣。
Certainly, critical theory or whatever, the origins of wokeness have had a lot of influence on the discourse more broadly.
当然，无论是批判理论还是其他什么，觉醒的起源对更广泛的话语产生了很大的影响。
But I don’t really read a lot of journal articles anymore.
但我真的不再读很多期刊文章了。
Also, a lot of it’s gone on Bluesky, I think, and I can’t tolerate Bluesky, really.
而且，我认为，很多内容都消失在蓝天身上，我真的无法容忍蓝天。
It’s too much of a circle jerk.
这太绕圈子了。
I think academics have maybe lost influence in that respect.
我认为学术界在这方面可能已经失去了影响力。
Even though I have great experiences talking to academics, and I’ll do events at universities a couple of times a year.
尽管我有与学者交谈的丰富经验，而且我每年都会在大学举办几次活动。
They also fall into this trap where it’s so reflexively anti-Trump, a lot of it.
他们也陷入了这个陷阱，其中很多人都本能地反特朗普。
I’m anti-Trump, in most senses of that term, but something about it has melted the brains a little bit of the nuance and the subtlety.
从大多数意义上来说，我是反特朗普的，但它的某些细微差别和微妙之处已经融化了我的大脑。
And the slow-cooking method of academia, where you’re supposed to take more time with things, is not always a good match — you being one of the major exceptions — for rapid-fire reaction to the news cycle.
学术界的慢炖方法，即你应该花更多时间处理事情的方法，并不总是适合对新闻周期做出快速反应的 —— 你是主要的例外之一 。
If there were a paper you wish someone would write — is there such a thing?
如果你希望有人写一篇论文 —— 有这样的事情吗？
Something you’d like to know, but you don’t know now, and in principle, an academic could do it.
有些事情你想知道，但你现在不知道，原则上，学者可以做到。
Yes, maybe papers is the wrong part of the curve right now, where a Substack newsletter that you take a couple of days with, or a blog post.
是的，也许论文现在是曲线的错误部分，你需要花几天时间阅读 Substack 时事通讯，或者博客文章。
Or a book — I’m still a big believer in books, where you go into a conclusion more in depth than anyone has before.
或者一本书—— 我仍然是书籍的忠实信徒，在书中你可以比任何人都更深入地得出结论。
Or investigative journalism.
或者调查性新闻。
I was just listening to that on the way over to the Ross Douthat podcast with the woman who helped to break the story of Jeffrey Epstein for the Miami Herald.
我刚刚在去罗斯·杜塔特播客的路上听了这个播客，那位女士帮助《迈阿密先驱报》报道了杰弗里·爱泼斯坦的故事。
She’s like, “This was a major story featuring all types of people that are extremely well known and notorious internationally.”
她说，“这是一个重大故事，讲述了国际上非常知名和臭名昭著的各种类型的人。”
People are lazy.
人们很懒。
There were not a lot of reporters really pursuing every detail of that case.
没有多少记者真正追查该案的每一个细节。
I think that 90 percent of academic papers would work perfectly fine as blog posts.
我认为 90% 的学术论文作为博客文章都可以完美地发挥作用。
Including the tone of like, “Okay, I ran some regressions” instead of having Greek symbols and things like that, and the pretense of all of it.
包括这样的语气，“好吧，我进行了一些回归”，而不是使用希腊符号之类的东西，以及所有这些的伪装。
I think that 90 percent of academic papers would work perfectly fine as blog posts.
我认为 90% 的学术论文作为博客文章都可以完美地发挥作用。
Including the tone of like, “Okay, I ran some regressions” instead of having Greek symbols and things like that, and the pretense of all of it.
包括这样的语气，“好吧，我进行了一些回归”，而不是使用希腊符号之类的东西，以及所有这些的伪装。
You can say what you think and let the world sort it out.
你可以说出你的想法，让世界来解决它。
Say what you think.
说出你的想法。
Also, one of the things I like about writing a newsletter is, I can use my tone to say, when am I speculating a little bit more?
另外，我喜欢写时事通讯的一件事是，我可以用我的语气说，我什么时候可以多猜测一点？
When am I making a joke?
我什么时候开个玩笑了？
When am I being more serious, presenting some original finding, and things like that?
我什么时候才能更认真地提出一些原创发现之类的事情？
That can be lost with the dry, sterile tone of a typical academic paper.
典型的学术论文的枯燥、乏味的语气可能会失去这一点。
On maximizing expected value and risk-taking
关于最大化期望价值和承担风险
When you think about maximizing expected value, how obsessed should you be with longevity?
当您考虑最大化预期价值时，您应该对长寿有多着迷？
Should you be the next Bryan Johnson?
你应该成为下一个布莱恩·约翰逊吗？
Yes, I ask myself a lot of these questions.
是的，我问自己很多这样的问题。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I think if you hyper-optimize for every parameter in your day-to-day life, then you probably wind up being fairly miserable.
我认为，如果你对日常生活中的每个参数进行过度优化，那么你最终可能会变得相当痛苦。
It’d be hypocritical if I said I was terribly concerned about longevity.
如果我说我非常关心长寿，那就太虚伪了。
In your 40s, both by choice and by force, you are required to be a little bit more careful about certain things, I suppose.
我想，在你 40 多岁的时候，无论是出于选择还是出于被迫，你都需要对某些事情更加小心。
Yes, I haven’t gotten on that bandwagon quite as much.
是的，我还没有那么热衷于追赶潮流。
I’m sure I will.
我确信我会的。
Probably if we do this again in three years, I’ll be some health nut or something.
如果三年后我们再次这样做，我可能会成为一些健康狂人之类的。
For now, I’m making serious but incremental improvements, I guess.
我想，目前我正在做出认真但渐进的改进。
As a bettor, do you take Pascal’s wager seriously?
作为一个投注者，你认真对待帕斯卡的赌注吗？
I take the notion that we’re profoundly uncertain about the nature of the universe seriously, right?
我认真对待我们对宇宙本质非常不确定的观点，对吗？
Why not believe?
为什么不相信呢？
It would seem to maximize expected value.
这似乎可以最大化预期价值。
Just jump right in.
直接跳进去。
You don’t have to say you know the answer, but you would say, “Well, this is the most likely path I have for getting to the answer.” It’s to start by believing something.
你不必说你知道答案，但你会说，“嗯，这是我得到答案的最有可能的路径。”要从相信某事开始。
Well, I don’t really believe in heaven as such, or I don’t believe in Pascal’s.
好吧，我并不真正相信天堂本身，或者说我不相信帕斯卡的天堂。
I put p=0.001.
我把p=0.001。
Well, not p=1, but there’s some chance, right?
嗯，虽然不是 p=1，但还是有机会的，对吧？
There’s some chance.
有一些机会。
Look, a lot of problems in, I guess it’s called infinite ethics.
你看，有很多问题，我想这就是所谓的无限道德。
You now have this big debate over shrimp welfare, for example.
例如，你们现在就虾的福利展开了一场大辩论。
I’m like, we have enough problems that are in the terrestrial tractable realm, right?
我想，我们在地球上可处理的领域有足够多的问题，对吧？
Well, I’m just not going to worry about those things so much.
好吧，我只是不会太担心这些事情。
As thought experiments, they can be helpful and fine, but I think if you ignore the 1 percent of edge cases .
作为思想实验，它们可能很有帮助，也很好，但我认为如果你忽略 1% 的边缘情况。
.
。
.
。
It’s probably good to have some people — Will MaCaskill or whatever — worrying about those things — the shrimp people having some influence on that, but I’m trying to move in the realm of the tractable.
让一些人 —— 威尔·马卡斯基尔或者其他什么人 —— 担心这些事情 —— 虾人对此产生一些影响可能是件好事，但我正在努力进入易于处理的领域。
I’ve always been more poker.
我一直更喜欢打扑克。
What matters is what hand you have.
重要的是你有什么手。
What matters is the read that you have.
重要的是你读过的书。
The theory matters, but information you have that’s local and specific, and actionable always predominates that.
理论很重要，但你所拥有的本地、具体且可操作的信息始终占据主导地位。
You dismiss Pascal’s wager in short?
简而言之，您驳回了帕斯卡的赌注？
I don’t worry about Pascal’s wager, I guess.
我想我并不担心帕斯卡的赌注。
Again, as I said, I’ve evolved toward being more affirmatively agnostic as opposed to atheist, I suppose, but that’s not because of Pascal’s wager per se, just because of the strangeness of the world.
再次，正如我所说，我想，我已经朝着更加肯定的不可知论者而不是无神论者的方向发展，但这并不是因为帕斯卡的赌注本身，只是因为世界的陌生性。
I do think that some of the AI stuff ought to have people asking a few more questions about the nature of reality, I suppose.
我确实认为，一些人工智能的东西应该让人们对现实的本质提出更多的问题。
Now, there’s plenty of material in your book about people who take a lot of risk.
现在，你的书中有很多关于那些冒很大风险的人的材料。
The subtitle is The Art of Risking Everything.
副标题是冒着一切风险的艺术。
How much do you think people segregate areas of risk-taking?
您认为人们在多大程度上将冒险领域分开？
For instance, people might say, “Well, Tyler, you travel to some dangerous locations.” But I’m totally afraid to scuba dive.
例如，人们可能会说，“好吧，泰勒，你去了一些危险的地方。”但我完全害怕水肺潜水。
I feel I’m very strongly segregated.
我觉得我的隔离非常强烈。
I either take a fair amount of risk or close to none at all.
我要么承担相当大的风险，要么几乎不承担任何风险。
Is that your model of most humans?
这是大多数人类的模型吗？
That’s pretty normal.
这很正常。
Yes.
是的。
The example I think I use in the book is Ezekiel Emanuel, telling people you shouldn’t go to restaurants because we still have some COVIDs like now, in 2022, 2023, right?
我想我在书中使用的例子是以西结·伊曼纽尔（Ezekiel Emanuel），他告诉人们你不应该去餐馆，因为我们仍然有一些新冠病毒，就像现在，2022 年、2023 年，对吗？
But he rides a motorcycle, which is known to be one of the most dangerous things per mile that you can do.
但他骑的是摩托车，众所周知，这是每英里可以做的最危险的事情之一。
People are usually not super meta-rational about risk.
人们通常对风险并不是超级理性的。
But should they be?
但他们应该这样吗？
Should you have one general risk attitude?
您应该有一种普遍的风险态度吗？
Is that more meta-rational?
这更元理性吗？
Look, I think things that seem irrational are often rational on a higher plane, right?
你看，我认为看似不合理的事情在更高的层面上往往是合理的，对吗？
Sure.
当然。
Yes.
是的。
Like loss aversion.
就像损失厌恶一样。
I had a pair of headphones stolen from me the other day, and I felt very guilty about that.
前几天我的耳机被偷了，我对此感到非常内疚。
We hadn’t locked the door of our car, and it was my fault.
我们没有锁车门，这是我的错。
This is in New York?
这是在纽约吗？
Actually, in upstate New York.
事实上，在纽约州北部。
You’ve got to be careful in upstate.
在北部地区你必须小心。
Real home of thieves.
真正的盗贼之家。
Sure.
当然。
You’re like, “Oh, okay.
你会说：“哦，好吧。
I can afford a new pair of headphones.
我买得起一副新耳机。
It’s not that big a deal.” If you were chronically sloppy about things like that, then that would cause more hardship and would be wasteful, and so, loss aversion, things like that — they come from flawed iterations of rationality that might serve a higher purpose or might have served an evolutionary purpose earlier in human civilization.
这没什么大不了的。”如果你长期对这样的事情马虎，那么这会导致更多的困难并且会造成浪费，因此，损失厌恶，诸如此类的事情——它们来自有缺陷的理性迭代，这些理性可能服务于更高的目的，或者可能服务于人类文明早期的进化目的。
Can you think of cases of people who have truly integrated attitudes toward risk?
您能想到对风险具有真正综合态度的人的例子吗？
That is, they have some level of risk-taking, and they apply it more or less evenly to all the things they do.
也就是说，他们有一定程度的冒险精神，并且或多或少均匀地运用到他们所做的所有事情上。
Are those people just in jail?
那些人只是在监狱里吗？
SILVER: Look, I think some of Silicon Valley has that attitude a little bit.
西尔弗：看，我认为硅谷的一些人有一点这种态度。
It tends to be correlated with other things that might be less desirable.
它往往与其他可能不太理想的事情相关。
The calculated risk-taking part is hard, I think.
我认为，计算出的风险承担部分很难。
If you’re very successful .
如果你非常成功。
.
。
.
。
One thing you see when you do play poker is, people play very differently when they’re on a winning streak.
当你玩扑克时你会看到的一件事是，人们在连胜时的玩法非常不同。
People play very differently when they’re confident.
当人们自信时，他们的表现会非常不同。
They usually play better, quite a bit better, in fact.
事实上，他们通常打得更好，甚至好很多。
Probably true for human beings, too.
对于人类来说可能也是如此。
But I’ve had moments in my career where I flew way too close to the sun, and you begin getting worse feedback from people.
但在我的职业生涯中，也曾有过飞得离太阳太近的时刻，你开始从人们那里得到更糟糕的反馈。
That’s very damaging, where people are sycophantic around you, potentially, where you shut off criticism.
这是非常有害的，因为你周围的人可能会阿谀奉承，而你却拒绝批评。
Elon seems to have this problem a little bit, although Elon didn’t concede to Trump on tariffs and skilled immigration, things like that, so he had some values at least.
埃隆似乎有点这个问题，尽管埃隆在关税和技术移民之类的问题上没有向特朗普让步，所以他至少有一些价值观。
But that’s a very big problem, I think.
但我认为这是一个很大的问题。
You’re surrounding yourself with yes men.
你周围都是唯唯诺诺的人。
Why haven’t you been to Oklahoma yet?
你为什么还没去过俄克拉荷马州？
I’d like to go.
我想去。
I was hoping the Knicks were going to play OKC.
我本来希望尼克斯队能对阵雷霆队。
Then I’d have gone for a couple games there.
然后我会去那里看几场比赛。
It’s cheaper to fly to OKC, stay in Ramada or maybe even a nice hotel, than to go to Madison Square Garden for playoff games.
飞往俄克拉荷马城、入住华美达酒店甚至是一家不错的酒店，比去麦迪逊广场花园观看季后赛要便宜。
I was thinking of trying to see a playoff game in OKC, not the finals.
我想尝试在雷霆队观看季后赛，而不是总决赛。
The tickets were so cheap, I was stunned because I’m used to Bay Area and New York City prices, which I won’t buy, but I look at them, and then I say, “Oh, that’s too much.”
门票太便宜了，我很惊讶，因为我习惯了湾区和纽约市的价格，我不会买，但我看看它们，然后我说，“哦，这太多了。”
New York City is crazy.
纽约市很疯狂。
I think one thing people have figured out is, all the high-taste things that rich people really like — there’s been huge inflation.
我认为人们已经弄清楚的一件事是，富人真正喜欢的所有高品味的东西都存在巨大的通货膨胀。
This is like the world’s tiniest violin problem in high-end sushi omakase, for example.
例如，这就像高端寿司厨师发办中世界上最小的小提琴问题。
I don’t do it anymore.
我不再这样做了。
Yes.
是的。
Or the US Open used to be something really fun, going to the US Open in Flushing Meadows.
或者美国公开赛曾经是一件非常有趣的事情，去法拉盛草地观看美国公开赛。
You’d go to one of the early sessions.
你会去参加其中一场早期的会议。
You can go to any of the 17 courts or whatever.
你可以去 17 个法院中的任何一个或其他地方。
It used to be a pretty good deal.
这曾经是一笔非常划算的交易。
You get in for 50 bucks, and now it’s 200 bucks, which is kind of a fair price.
原来是50块钱，现在是200块钱，这个价格还算公道。
You see now Delta using AI tools to price discriminate —
你现在看到达美航空使用人工智能工具进行价格歧视 ——
That’s right.
没错。
— a little bit more, which I think we probably should have.
— 多一点，我认为我们可能应该多一点。
That’s going to be bad for you.
这对你来说是件坏事。
Yes, probably.
是的，可能是。
We should probably have some law, although in New York we can fly on multiple carriers to almost everywhere.
我们或许应该制定一些法律，尽管在纽约我们可以乘坐多家航空公司飞往几乎任何地方。
No, I think —
不，我认为 ——
But if they all price discriminate using a common algorithm, it’s not literally collusive, but it’s, in a way, like collusion.
但如果他们都使用通用算法进行价格歧视，那么这并不是真正的共谋，但在某种程度上，它就像共谋。
Is that legal or not?
这合法不合法？
You would know more than me.
你会比我知道的更多。
There are pending court cases.
有未决的法庭案件。
I’m not sure how they’re all being decided, but it will be an increasingly important issue.
我不确定它们是如何决定的，但这将是一个越来越重要的问题。
Yes.
是的。
I think some of this is short-sightedness in the sense that we’ll probably have a pretty profound backlash to it, I would think.
我认为其中一些是短视的，因为我们可能会对此产生相当强烈的强烈反对。
It rubs you the wrong way intuitively.
直觉上它会以错误的方式让你烦恼。
If you’re betting on NBA games or just trying to enjoy them, how much does it help you to have seen the team live?
如果您投注 NBA 比赛或只是想享受比赛的乐趣，那么现场观看球队比赛对您有多大帮助？
If you go to see Oklahoma a few games, do you learn anything?
如果你去看俄克拉荷马州的几场比赛，你能学到什么吗？
Given that the edges are pretty small in general, in sports betting, you’re probably either losing by 1 percent ROI or winning by 1 percent ROI.
鉴于一般情况下，在体育博彩中，优势非常小，您可能会损失 1% 的投资回报率或获胜 1% 的投资回报率。
Then any of that is helpful, I think.
我认为其中任何一个都是有帮助的。
Also, sometimes the markets are a little bit behind.
此外，有时市场有点落后。
If you’re there in the arena, it’s called courtsiding.
如果您在场馆内，则称为“Coursideing”。
You can potentially pick up on things.
你可能会发现一些东西。
So, it is helpful?
那么，有帮助吗？
I think so, yes.
我想是的，是的。
Again, if it improves you by like 0.5 percent ROI, that becomes pretty meaningful in the context of a sports bet.
同样，如果它可以提高 0.5% 的投资回报率，那么这在体育博彩的背景下就变得非常有意义。
On voting schemes and elections
关于投票计划和选举
Ranked choice voting — does it really matter in affecting outcomes?
排名选择投票 — 它对影响结果真的很重要吗？
It potentially can matter.
这可能很重要。
Particularly, you’ve seen candidates adopt different strategies for it by cross-endorsing, for example.
特别是，您已经看到候选人通过交叉认可等方式采取不同的策略。
Although, I think I’ve turned mildly anti-RCV for a couple of reasons.
尽管如此，我认为出于几个原因我已经变得温和地反对 RCV。
Why?
为什么？
One is that it’s not Condorcet optimal.
一是它不是孔多塞最优的。
The order in which candidates are eliminated — hopefully I’m saying that name correctly, right?
候选人被淘汰的顺序 —— 希望我没说错吧？
Yes.
是的。
The order in which candidates are eliminated can affect who wins.
候选人被淘汰的顺序会影响谁获胜。
Brad Lander, for example, is the compromise candidate between Mamdani and Cuomo in the New York mayoral race.
例如，布拉德·兰德 (Brad Lander) 是纽约市长竞选中马姆达尼 (Mamdani) 和科莫 (Cuomo) 之间的妥协候选人。
It’s plausible he would have won any head-to-head matchup, but he was eliminated third from last, or I guess second from last, so he didn’t get to the final two.
他很有可能赢得任何一场面对面的比赛，但他被倒数第三淘汰，或者我猜是倒数第二，所以他没有进入最后两场比赛。
But would he have had a head-to-head matchup under a normal voting rule?
但在正常的投票规则下，他会进行面对面的对决吗？
It’s plausible you could.
你可能可以。
I don’t know, or I guess a traditional run-off wouldn’t be any better, potentially.
我不知道，或者我猜传统的决选可能也不会更好。
Fair enough.
很公平。
You also almost had Mamdani wind up winning the first-choice vote.
你还差点让马姆达尼最终赢得第一选择票。
Although in 2021, Eric Adams nearly lost to Catherine Garcia despite being way ahead in the penultimate round, and Garcia nearly was eliminated by Maya Wiley in the round before that.
尽管在2021年，埃里克·亚当斯在倒数第二轮中遥遥领先，但险些输给凯瑟琳·加西亚，而加西亚在之前的一轮中险些被玛雅·威利淘汰。
So, it’s more gameable than you might think.
所以，它比你想象的更具游戏性。
Also, it takes a really long time to count the votes and all the tallies.
而且，计票和计票需要很长时间。
Just yesterday .
就在昨天。
.
。
.
。
we’re taping this — what is it?
我们正在录制这个 — 这是什么？
July 21st, I think.
我想是7月21日。
Three or four weeks after the election, you finally get the official tally of how all the ballots transferred.
选举三四个星期后，您终于可以得到所有选票转移的官方统计数据。
I’m not being that close, but I think we need it more of a norm in American elections toward counting votes within 24 to 48 hours.
我不是那么接近，但我认为我们更需要美国选举的一个规范，即在 24 到 48 小时内计票。
Brazil does it, right?
巴西就是这么做的，对吗？
India does it.
印度就是这么做的。
I was doing a little work on the Indian election, which was fascinating in different ways.
我正在做一些关于印度选举的工作，这在不同方面都很有趣。
They have a physical polling place up in the Himalayas and things like that.
他们在喜马拉雅山等地设有实体投票站。
I don’t know how many languages they speak and how diverse in every respect that country is, and they count their results very quickly.
我不知道他们讲多少种语言，也不知道这个国家在各个方面有多多样化，但他们计算结果的速度非常快。
They also have better exit polling in international countries, where in the US, the exit polls are trying to ask this 100-item-long, proper political-science, demographically weighted survey.
他们在国际国家也有更好的出口民意调查，在美国，出口民意调查正在尝试进行这项包含 100 个项目的、适当的政治科学、人口加权调查。
Whereas in Europe and Latin America, places like that, it’s, “We just want to know who’s going to win.” To make for more exciting TV, they just ask them one question: “Who’d you vote for?” They do it in a very organized way.
而在欧洲和拉丁美洲等地方，“我们只是想知道谁会赢。”为了制作更精彩的电视节目，他们只需问他们一个问题：“你投票给谁？”他们以非常有组织的方式做到这一点。
Exit polling is quite good in foreign countries and quite bad elsewhere.
出口民意调查在国外相当好，在其他地方则相当糟糕。
I don’t think there should be a Republican talking point that we want the vote counted quickly, and not taking days and weeks.
我认为共和党的谈话要点不应该是我们希望快速计票，而不是花几天或几周的时间。
If you could wave a magic wand and bring proportional representation to the United States at the national level, would you do it?
如果你能挥动魔杖，让美国在国家层面实现比例代表制，你会这么做吗？
I think I’m enough of a critic of the two major parties that I’d have to say yes for the most part, although I don’t know.
我想我已经足够批评两个主要政党了，尽管我不知道，但我在很大程度上不得不说是。
We have more veto points in the American system.
我们在美国体系中拥有更多否决权。
That’s probably been good for capitalism and economic growth and maybe a certain type of liberty, I suppose.
我想，这可能有利于资本主义和经济增长，或许还有某种类型的自由。
I think a question I’d like to see addressed more — maybe there’re some good books — is like, I see the US and Europe as diverging more and more.
我认为我希望看到更多的问题被解决——“也许有一些好书”——就像，我认为美国和欧洲的分歧越来越大。
Canonically, Europe is getting longer and longer lifespans.
按照惯例，欧洲的人均寿命越来越长。
We’re not really.
我们不是真的。
We still have fairly good economic growth, and they don’t really.
我们仍然有相当好的经济增长，而他们却没有。
How much of that is culture?
其中有多少是文化？
But, our Europeans have long lifespans, right?
但是，我们欧洲人的寿命很长，对吗？
That’s what I’m saying.
这就是我所说的。
If you’re a Japanese-American woman born in New Jersey, isn’t that the world’s longest lifespan?
如果你是出生在新泽西州的日裔美国女性，那不是世界上最长的寿命吗？
New England is almost like Scandinavia or something, including being slightly boring in certain ways.
新英格兰几乎就像斯堪的纳维亚半岛之类的，包括在某些方面有点无聊。
The food’s a little plain.
食物有点简单。
I’m a big proponent of New England.
我是新英格兰的坚定支持者。
It’s not where I want to live, but New England exceptionalism–they did much better under COVID.
这不是我想住的地方，而是新英格兰的例外论——他们在新冠疫情下做得更好。
Boston had a very big outbreak early, but Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine had much lower COVID cases than anywhere else, by far, in the United States.
波士顿很早就爆发了一场非常大的疫情，但佛蒙特州、新罕布什尔州、缅因州的新冠病例远远低于美国其他任何地方。
They’re doing something clearly right.
他们正在做一些明显正确的事情。
If I look at some of the prediction markets, at times, I’ve seen Trump at 6 percent to 7 percent likely to be the next Republican nominee to run for president.
如果我观察一些预测市场，有时我会发现特朗普有 6% 到 7% 的可能性成为下一位竞选总统的共和党候选人。
Is that long-shot bias that it’s hard to shorten those markets?
很难缩短这些市场，这是一种远景偏见吗？
Do you think it’s the right number?
您认为这个数字正确吗？
Is it just expressive bettors who want to see Trump again, and they’re willing to lose some money to send that message?
难道只有那些富有表现力的投注者想再次见到特朗普，并且他们愿意损失一些钱来传达这一信息吗？
What do you make of that?
你对此有何看法？
The prediction markets — and I consult for Polymarket — have gotten quite a lot better.
预测市场——以及我为 Polymarket 提供咨询——已经变得好多了。
They’ve gotten quite a lot more liquid.
他们获得了更多的液体。
But you still see some obvious mispricings, like Zohran actually had a 7 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee when that market launched at Polymarket.
但你仍然会看到一些明显的定价错误，比如当 Polymarket 推出该市场时，Zohran 实际上有 7% 的机会成为民主党候选人。
He was born in Uganda, so there’s no workaround to that, I don’t think.
他出生在乌干达，所以我认为没有解决办法。
I think on the papal betting markets, they didn’t have Pope Leo priced higher than 1 percent or things like that, and I think they got overconfident about a system where they had no inside knowledge, and the outside view was maybe only marginally useful, and things like that.
我认为在教皇博彩市场上，他们没有让教皇利奥的价格高于 1% 或类似的东西，而且我认为他们对一个没有内部知识的系统过于自信，而外部观点可能只有一点用处，诸如此类的东西。
Look, I don’t know.
瞧，我不知道。
We talked a little bit before about how some of the academic historians, political scientists have gotten enraptured by this anti-Trump thing.
我们之前讨论过一些学术历史学家、政治学家如何对这种反特朗普的事情感到着迷。
I do think the scenario where Trump runs for a third term — I don’t say it’s zero.
我确实认为特朗普竞选第三个任期的情况 —— 我并不是说它是零。
I’d say if it’s 2 percent, then that’s still alarmingly high, but it’s probably two and not six or seven.
我想说，如果是 2%，那仍然高得惊人，但可能是 2%，而不是 6% 或 7%。
My question is, in that world, are we even having an election in the first place?
我的问题是，在那个世界里，我们首先要举行选举吗？
If you’re just flagrantly ignoring the constitution that much, I think there are workarounds.
如果你公然无视宪法，我认为还有解决方法。
It’s common that weird nondemocratic governments have elections of some kind, right?
奇怪的非民主政府进行某种形式的选举是很常见的，对吗？
Even the Soviet Union had “elections.”
甚至苏联也有“选举”。
They do, but for that transition to occur in the US .
他们确实这样做，但这种转变发生在美国。
.
。
.
。
Also, Trump is not particularly popular.
此外，特朗普也不是特别受欢迎。
His ratings fell pretty fast early — because of, I think, predominantly tariffs — and then recovered.
他的支持率早期下降得相当快——我认为主要是因为关税——然后又恢复了。
Now they’ve fallen again.
现在他们又跌倒了。
I don’t know how much of that is more tariffs versus, frankly, the Epstein stuff, for example.
坦白地说，与爱泼斯坦的事情相比，我不知道其中有多少是更多的关税。
A lot of the scenario — it helps for populists to be popular.
很多情况 ——它有助于民粹主义者受欢迎。
We certainly have enough checks and balances in the US.
我们在美国当然有足够的制衡。
People are not being force-fed information from any one source.
人们不会从任何一种来源被迫获得信息。
I worry about a lot of things with Trump.
我担心特朗普的很多事情。
That’s probably not the foremost concern.
这可能不是最重要的问题。
On 2028 presidential candidates
关于2028年总统候选人
I’ve seen Stephen Smith, the ESPN sports commentator — you probably even know him — but as high as 9 percent in the market to be Democratic nominee.
我见过 ESPN 体育评论员斯蒂芬·史密斯（Stephen Smith）——“你可能甚至认识他”——但民主党提名人的市场支持率高达 9%。
What do you think his actual number is?
你认为他的实际号码是多少？
Maybe 2 percent.
也许是百分之二。
COWEN: I think it’s 4 percent or 5 percent.
COWEN：我认为是 4% 或 5%。
I don’t think it’s crazy.
我不认为这很疯狂。
We had a draft of the 20 most likely Democratic nominees.
我们起草了 20 名最有可能获得民主党提名的候选人。
I think Stephen Smith was a ninth-round draft pick.
我认为斯蒂芬·史密斯是第九轮选秀。
What does that scenario look like, where he wins?
他获胜的情况是什么样的？
I think it’s where Democrats feel really .
我认为这就是民主党人的真实感受。
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Well, the reason why I would not be as optimistic as you are is, I think that other people with the platform will emerge.
嗯，我之所以不会像你那么乐观，是因为我认为拥有这个平台的其他人将会出现。
I had not, frankly, heard of Zohran Mamdani’s name when we taped our last conversation a year ago.
坦率地说，一年前我们录制最后一次谈话时，我还没有听说过佐兰·马姆达尼的名字。
He might now be one of the five most recognizable names in the party.
他现在可能是党内最知名的五个名字之一。
The fact that he’s from Uganda prevents him from running for president.
他来自乌干达，这一事实阻止了他竞选总统。
You’ll see other people emerge.
你会看到其他人出现。
I think there is probably some indication that you’re going to have more energy on the left, more energy from people who are explicitly partisan, maybe to the point of being a little bit paranoid.
我认为可能有一些迹象表明，左派将会有更多的精力，更多的精力来自于明显有党派倾向的人，也许会有点偏执。
There is a little bit of election denialism among certain threads of Democrats, for example, that Trump stole the election from Kamala Harris.
民主党的某些线索中存在一些否认选举的观点，例如，特朗普从卡马拉·哈里斯手中窃取了选举权。
It’s nascent for now, but I think a partisan fighter .
目前它还处于萌芽阶段，但我认为这是一个党派战士。
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and also, you’re filtering out.
而且，你正在过滤掉。
People get confused because they’re like, “Why is Democrat electorate .
人们感到困惑，因为他们会想，“为什么是民主党选民。”
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.” Because Cuomo did very well, always in New York City when running statewide.
”。因为科莫表现非常好，在全州竞选时总是在纽约市。
Hillary Clinton did very well in New York City.
希拉里·克林顿在纽约市表现出色。
It diverted Bernie Sanders’ campaign in 2020.
它改变了伯尼·桑德斯 2020 年竞选的方向。
It’s because people in the center have migrated away from the Democratic Party, so you’re having these two things that go on at once.
这是因为中间派的人已经离开民主党，所以这两件事同时发生。
I do think there’s a chance that Democrats will overestimate how tolerant the rest of the country is for progressive governance.
我确实认为民主党人有可能高估该国其他地区对进步治理的容忍度。
But with that said, I think JD Vance is also a pretty flawed candidate.
但话虽如此，我认为 JD Vance 也是一个相当有缺陷的候选人。
I think any other non-Vance candidate is going to have a lot of trouble escaping the shadow of Trump, so I’d regard Democrats as a 55–45 favorite for 2028, pricing in some chance they’ll nominate what I would think of as a suboptimal — from an electoral standpoint — candidate.
我认为任何其他非万斯候选人都将很难摆脱特朗普的阴影，因此我认为民主党在 2028 年以 55 比 45 的优势当选，考虑到他们有可能提名我认为次优的候选人——从选举的角度来看。
I’m not telling anybody who they should nominate in terms of whose values they have.
我并不是在告诉任何人应该根据他们的价值观来提名谁。
I think people neglect the importance of the primary system and the optionality, and the revealed preferences of voters.
我认为人们忽视了初选制度的重要性和选择性，以及选民所揭示的偏好。
It is a pretty good proxy for running a general election campaign, is running a primary campaign that goes through all 50 states, and you’re raising money, you’re giving speeches, things like that.
它是开展大选活动的一个很好的代表，正在开展一场遍及所有 50 个州的初选活动，你要筹集资金，你要发表演讲，诸如此类。
I think the idea of an external savior who’s a centrist is becoming a bit less likely than I would’ve thought a year ago.
我认为中间派作为外部救世主的想法比我一年前想象的要小一些。
Do you think the major tech companies have proprietary information where they can predict elections better than anyone or anything?
您是否认为大型科技公司拥有专有信息，可以比任何人或任何事物更好地预测选举？
They may not even bother to do it, but is it there in principle?
他们可能甚至懒得这样做，但原则上是这样吗？
I tend to doubt it.
我倾向于怀疑这一点。
One nice thing about polling, for all the flaws that polling has — and I think polling has, I wouldn’t call it a crisis, but on the route to a crisis — is you do have a good baseline to compare with.
民意调查的一个好处是，尽管民意调查存在所有缺陷——我认为民意调查有它，我不会称其为危机，但在通往危机的道路上——你确实有一个很好的基线可以比较。
You can say we are going to go back to 1936 — I think was the first time Gallup issued a presidential election poll — and look empirically at how accurate those polls are at X number of days from the election.
你可以说我们要回到 1936 年 ——我认为这是盖洛普第一次发布总统选举民意调查 ——然后凭经验观察这些民意调查在选举后 X 天的准确性。
Whereas there is just nothing to calibrate AI-type models.
而没有任何东西可以校准人工智能类型的模型。
You could probably predict how an individual voter will vote, if they’re gathering .
如果单个选民聚集在一起，您或许可以预测他们将如何投票。
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The amount of things I tell —
我讲述的事情的数量 ——
But if you spent a lot of money, and you have everyone’s, say, Facebook posts, and you just fed it into a sufficiently complicated model, wouldn’t that be the best predictive model?
但是，如果你花了很多钱，并且拥有每个人的（例如 Facebook 帖子），然后将其输入到一个足够复杂的模型中，这难道不是最好的预测模型吗？
If I know just your name and your zip code, I can probably predict with 90 percent accuracy who you’re going to vote for.
如果我只知道你的名字和邮政编码，我就能以 90% 的准确率预测你会投票给谁。
From the name, you can infer gender, race, age.
从名字就可以推断出性别、种族、年龄。
From the zip code, you can infer socioeconomic status.
从邮政编码，您可以推断社会经济地位。
Oh, sure.
哦，当然。
That gets you pretty darn far.
这会让你走得很远。
The issue with elections is that they operate almost like 1 percent or 2 percent margin.
选举的问题在于，它们的运作几乎只有 1% 或 2% 的利润率。
The polls will have a disaster because one candidate gets 51 percent instead of 47 percent.
民意调查将带来一场灾难，因为一名候选人的支持率从 47% 变为 51%。
That’s still pretty good.
那还是很不错的。
If you’re estimating how many jelly beans there are in a jar and you’re like, “Oh, 51 percent of them are purple, and it’s really 47 percent,” then that’s not too bad.
如果你在估算一个罐子里有多少颗糖豆，然后你会想，“哦，其中 51% 是紫色的，实际上是 47%”，那么这还不错。
But you need a lot of precision for election polling, and you have plenty of ways to get to a blunt, approximate view, but I think those would not be superior to the other ways, like polling, namely,
但是选举民意调查需要非常精确，并且有很多方法可以得出直率、近似的观点，但我认为这些方法并不优于其他方法，例如民意调查，即，
Do you have a prediction for most likely Democratic Party nominee?
您对最有可能的民主党提名人有预测吗？
We may be doing another of these in three years, right?
我们可能会在三年内再做一次这样的事情，对吗？
AOC was the first pick in the draft I did.
AOC 是我在选秀中的第一顺位。
I think that would be reinforced by the New York mayoral race.
我认为纽约市长竞选会强化这一点。
I think she’s a very bright person who has demonstrated some tact in certain areas.
我认为她是一个非常聪明的人，在某些方面表现出了一定的机智。
Look, again, I am not a socialist or democratic socialist, but even I am someone who likes seeing new faces in the parties, who had no affection for the Clinton dynasty or the Cuomo dynasty or the Bidens, who can’t seem to stay out of the spotlight.
再说一遍，我不是社会主义者或民主社会主义者，但即使我也是一个喜欢在政党中看到新面孔的人，对克林顿王朝、科莫王朝或拜登家族没有感情，他们似乎无法远离聚光灯。
I think she’s smart enough and fresh enough, good enough on social media.
我认为她足够聪明、足够新鲜、在社交媒体上足够出色。
No one’s higher than 15 percent, but if you gave me a free bet, I think I’d pick her.
没有人高于 15%，但如果你给我一个免费的赌注，我想我会选她。
On AI progress
关于人工智能的进展
Now, speaking of predictions, a year ago, we talked about how long will it take AIs to be as good as human superforecasters?
现在，说到预测，一年前，我们讨论了人工智能需要多长时间才能达到人类超级预测员的水平？
You made a prediction, where you said at least 10 to 15 years.
你做了一个预测，你说至少10到15年。
Now, a year later, do you want to revisit that and revise?
现在，一年后，您想重新审视并修改吗？
I think it’s probably about right.
我想这可能是对的。
I would say, relative to a year ago, AI is about at the 40th pe rcentile of progress I would’ve expected.
我想说，相对于一年前，人工智能的进步大约达到了我预期的 40%。
I’d be curious what you would think.
我很好奇你会怎么想。
A year ago, I said two to three years.
一年前，我说两到三年。
Right now, I’m going to say one to two years, which is the same prediction.
现在，我想说一到两年，这是同样的预测。
I think you’re way too pessimistic in your timetable.
我认为你对你的时间表太悲观了。
It depends on how competitive the exercise is.
这取决于练习的竞争程度。
If it’s like a —
如果它像一个 ——
Like a Math Olympiad tournament.
就像数学奥林匹克竞赛一样。
They just did gold medal performance.
他们刚刚完成了金牌表演。
I said this last year.
我去年就说过这句话。
I said, “In a year, they’re going to do gold medal.” A year ago, they weren’t sure how many r’s were in the word strawberry.
我说：“一年后，他们就会获得金牌。”一年前，他们不确定草莓这个词中有多少个 r。
You don’t think on superforecasting, they can —
你不用考虑超级预测，他们可以 ——
I think it’s very different when you’re dealing with a static problem as compared to a dynamic system where the inputs are changing all the time.
我认为当你处理静态问题时，与输入不断变化的动态系统相比，这是非常不同的。
Currently, the large language models are very, very bad at poker.
目前，大型语言模型在扑克方面非常非常糟糕。
They’re not trained on poker data.
他们没有接受过扑克数据方面的培训。
I’m sure if you did train them .
我确定您是否训练过他们。
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There are these things called solvers that are trained on poker data that do very well, but they cannot quite impute the general patterns just from mediocre text data or an amateurish kind of hand analysis.
有一些被称为求解器的东西经过扑克数据的训练，效果非常好，但它们不能仅仅从平庸的文本数据或业余的手牌分析中完全推断出一般模式。
If you probe them on why they’re bad, they’re like, “Yes, maybe it’s tough for us when you have a complicated, evolving game theory dynamic, and you have to develop exploitative strategies very quickly.”
如果你探究他们为什么不好，他们会说，“是的，当你有一个复杂的、不断发展的博弈论动态时，也许这对我们来说很困难，而且你必须非常快地制定剥削策略。”
If you have a computer solve a poker hand to get to one where there’s enough loss minimization, a very strong computer can take minutes, whereas a poker player makes those calculations implicitly in a handful of seconds, for example.
例如，如果你有一台计算机解决一手扑克牌问题，以达到足够的损失最小化的程度，那么一台非常强大的计算机可能需要几分钟的时间，而扑克玩家只需几秒钟就可以隐式地进行这些计算。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I worry, with the Math Olympiad stuff — there’s a little bit of teaching to the test where, because you set this as the goal that a large language model should have, that therefore there’s a lot of prestige when you meet that goal, potentially —
我担心，对于数学奥林匹克竞赛的东西 —— 有一些测试教学，因为你将其设置为大型语言模型应该具有的目标，因此当你实现该目标时，可能会获得很大的声望 ——
Isn’t teaching to the test what we should do, even with humans in a sense.
教学不是为了测试我们应该做的事情，即使在某种意义上是针对人类的。
The test is what you think is important, and that’s what you ought to teach.
测试是你认为重要的，也是你应该教的。
Well, but the poker example, or chess — I think AI models are very poor at chess, from everything that I’ve heard, for example.
嗯，但是以扑克为例，或者国际象棋 ——例如，从我所听到的一切来看，我认为人工智能模型在国际象棋方面非常糟糕。
Other AI models play chess great.
其他人工智能模型下棋也很棒。
Correct.
正确的。
This gets me to the question of, what’s it mean to be generally intelligent?
这让我想到一个问题：普遍聪明意味着什么？
We’ll probably have scaffolding of model on top of model, and you’ll now patch different things.
我们可能会在模型之上建立模型的脚手架，现在您将修补不同的东西。
Right now, you can’t really very effectively make a plane reservation using ChatGPT, but I’m sure if you dedicate a resource to that, then you have these agentic models now, or agent models are just creeping into the system, a little bit.
目前，您无法真正非常有效地使用 ChatGPT 进行飞机预订，但我确信如果您专门为此投入资源，那么您现在就拥有了这些代理模型，或者代理模型只是稍微渗透到系统中。
Those will work in less than a year, I think.
我认为这些将在不到一年的时间内发挥作用。
There’s an agentic model now from OpenAI.
OpenAI 现在有一个代理模型。
This is where I get to rough AGI versus superintelligence.
这就是我粗略地了解 AGI 与超级智能的地方。
I am less convinced that we’re going to have some intelligence explosion than I would have been maybe .
我不太相信我们会出现智力爆炸，而我本来可能会这样。
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I don’t think I was ever convinced of it, but this emergent superintelligence, where you train it on relatively simple data and it extrapolates beyond the data set.
我不认为我曾经相信过这一点，但是这种新兴的超级智能，你可以在相对简单的数据上训练它，然后它会在数据集之外进行推断。
I think they do reason.
我认为他们确实有道理。
Sometimes I think they’re quite smart, and I no longer am bashful about saying, “Oh, ChatGPT thinks this.” I used to avoid that term, think.
有时我觉得他们很聪明，我不再羞涩地说，“哦，ChatGPT 是这么想的。”我曾经避免使用这个词，我想。
But there’s a big gap between approximate general intelligence for desk jobs, and then superintelligence on the one hand, or AGI for physical labor on the other hand.
但一方面，办公室工作的近似通用智能与超级智能，或体力劳动的通用人工智能之间存在很大差距。
I think people are much too quick to make that leap.
我认为人们太快地实现这一飞跃。
I think the Math Olympiad, in part because maybe the answers are somewhere latent in the training data, but even if they’re not, if you try to solve, what’s a Lucas critique?
我认为数学奥林匹克竞赛，部分原因是答案可能隐藏在训练数据中，但即使它们不是，如果你试图解决，卢卡斯的批评是什么？
Whatever else, right?
还有什么，对吧？
There’s a version of that, I think, for AI models.
我认为，对于人工智能模型来说，有一个版本。
My intuition is that if you took five superforecasters and just had them write a five-page prompt for GPT-5, which will be out this summer, that we’d be there already.
我的直觉是，如果你让五位超级预测者为 GPT-5（将于今年夏天发布）编写一份五页的提示，那么我们就已经到了。
I don’t think it would be superintelligence.
我不认为这会是超级智能。
You could say it’s not AGI.
你可以说这不是 AGI。
But the human superforecasters, they’re not that impressive.
但人类超级预测家并没有那么令人印象深刻。
They’re not Einsteins.
他们不是爱因斯坦。
They just have good methods, and they’re disciplined.
他们只是有好的方法，而且遵守纪律。
It requires so much on general knowledge, I think, both general knowledge of how the world works and heuristic.
我认为，它需要大量的常识，包括关于世界如何运作的常识和启发式知识。
I think it might be a little tougher.
我想可能会有点困难。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
Can you train on a thought process?
你能训练思维过程吗？
I try to do that in real life sometimes.
有时我会尝试在现实生活中这样做。
My partner is an artist and has a very good eye for art, and I don’t.
我的伴侣是一位艺术家，对艺术有很好的鉴赏力，而我却没有。
I maybe have a B, B+.
我可能有 B、B+。
I can train myself on him and say, what does he like in art?
我可以训练自己并问他，他喜欢艺术的什么？
That probably caps me at a B+ understanding, potentially.
这可能会让我的理解达到 B+ 水平。
In markets, a B+ trader is often on the losing side of a trade.
在市场中，B+ 交易者通常会在交易中处于亏损的一方。
How good do you think you could become at appreciating art?
您认为您在艺术鉴赏方面能达到多高的水平？
Let’s say you put in two to three years — not full-time, but made it one of your two or three big things after basketball?
假设你投入了两到三年的时间 ——不是全职工作，但将其作为篮球之后你的两到三件大事之一？
I’d probably be very studious about it.
我可能会非常用功。
Look, I have confidence that when I devote myself to things, I can get quite good at them.
看，我有信心，当我全身心投入某件事时，我就能把它们做得很好。
I think there’s no physical limitation there.
我认为那里没有物理限制。
Still, I have four or five hobbies that occupy all my time, some of which have already become professions.
尽管如此，我还是有四五个爱好占据了我所有的时间，其中一些已经成为职业。
I think maybe architecture more.
我想也许建筑更多。
In the Silver DNA, there’re some architecture genes.
在 Silver DNA 中，有一些建筑基因。
We’re related not by blood to Frank Lloyd Wright.
我们与弗兰克·劳埃德·赖特没有血缘关系。
My grandma was an architect, designed the home I live in part-time now in Westchester County.
我的祖母是一名建筑师，她设计了我现在在威彻斯特县兼职居住的房子。
My uncle is an architect.
我的叔叔是一名建筑师。
That would be more the direction where I would go.
那将是我要去的方向。
I like things that are spatial.
我喜欢有空间感的东西。
I have a very good spatial memory.
我有很好的空间记忆力。
If I’ve been to a restaurant before, even if it was a different restaurant 10 years ago, I remember that space very well.
如果我以前去过一家餐厅，即使是十年前的另一家餐厅，我也会清楚地记得那个空间。
Whereas art — I have just an okay eye for it.
而艺术 —— 我对它的眼光还不错。
On coming out as gay in the NBA
关于在 NBA 出柜同性恋身份
Now, nine years ago in our first conversation, we discussed why more professional athletes had not come out as gay.
现在，九年前，在我们的第一次谈话中，我们讨论了为什么更多的职业运动员没有公开自己的同性恋身份。
You and I both thought then that over the forthcoming time period, more players from the NBA would come out as gay.
当时你和我都认为，在接下来的一段时间内，会有更多 NBA 球员公开自己的同性恋身份。
I asked ChatGPT.
我问ChatGPT。
They said Jason Collins came out 12 years ago, and since then it’s been zero.
他们说杰森·柯林斯 (Jason Collins) 12 年前就出柜了，从那以后这个数字一直为零。
Now, why is that?
现在，这是为什么呢？
What did we get wrong?
我们做错了什么？
There’s been a little bit more of a conservative backlash in sports, where you see more outspoken Trump supporters.
体育界保守派的强烈抵制有所增加，你会看到更多直言不讳的特朗普支持者。
But that’s very recent.
但这是最近的事。
You have a nine-year period, there’s 2020, the extremes of woke are part of this period.
你有一个九年的时期，还有2020年，觉醒的极端是这个时期的一部分。
Gay marriage is really quite solidified in American life, and no one comes out.
同性婚姻在美国生活中确实相当固化，没有人站出来。
It is surprising, I think, in a lot of ways.
我认为这在很多方面都令人惊讶。
Look, I am not so PC .
看，我不太电脑。
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There may be some selection mechanisms.
可能有一些选择机制。
I don’t necessarily know that they’re genetic, but maybe it becomes easier for gay people to come out in high school and things like that.
我不一定知道他们是遗传的，但也许同性恋者在高中或类似的事情上出柜会变得更容易。
They’re attracted to fields apart from sports.
他们被体育以外的领域所吸引。
Gay men typically are quite in shape and quite athletic relative to straight men of the same demographic cohort otherwise, so it’s not a physical ability thing, but selecting into sports.
与同一人口群体的直男相比，男同性恋者通常身材匀称，运动能力也很强，所以这不是身体能力的问题，而是选择参加运动的问题。
The sports become more professionalist — not the right term — at the high school level, but you’re tracked into Cooper Flagg, whatever.
在高中阶段，体育运动变得更加专业化——“这不是正确的术语”——但无论如何，你都会被追踪到库珀·弗拉格。
He didn’t spend all his high school in Maine.
他并不是在缅因州度过了整个高中。
He went to Montverde Academy or whatever else it was.
他去了蒙特沃德学院或其他什么地方。
If anything distracts you from that, whether it’s questions about your identity or anything else, you get off track.
如果有什么事情分散了你的注意力，无论是关于你的身份的问题还是其他任何事情，你就会偏离正轨。
Maybe it’s harder to make that up later on.
也许以后要弥补就更难了。
GPT also claims that 44 players in the WNBA have come out as something other than standard hetero.
GPT 还声称，WNBA 中有 44 名球员的身份并非标准的异性恋。
It’s a big gap, right?
这是一个很大的差距，对吧？
It’s a big gap for sure.
这肯定是一个很大的差距。
I saw Caitlin Clark and Fever against the New York Liberty last year.
去年我看到凯特琳·克拉克和狂热队对阵纽约自由队。
The WNBA is fascinating.
WNBA 很迷人。
It’s a very, very, very different demographic than any sporting event I’ve ever been at before.
这是一个与我以前参加过的任何体育赛事都非常、非常、非常不同的人群。
I think it’s great.
我认为这很棒。
It’s getting more cultural salience, I think.
我认为，它的文化意义越来越突出。
Does betting help it in relative terms?
相对而言，投注有帮助吗？
There’s probably not a ton.
可能没有很多。
Two years ago, I had a really good time betting the women’s NCAA basketball tournament before the markets had adapted, but I think people figured out, “Okay, these are pretty soft lines.” The issue is, in any type of betting, if you’re any good, you’ll get limited if you have repeated success or even waitress at Look EV plus bet casino, you’ll also get limited quite quickly.
两年前，在市场适应之前，我在女子 NCAA 篮球锦标赛上度过了一段非常愉快的时光，但我认为人们已经明白了，“好吧，这些都是相当温和的赌注。”问题是，在任何类型的投注中，如果你再优秀，如果你屡次成功，你就会受到限制，甚至在Look EV plus bet赌场当女服务员，你也会很快受到限制。
Betting women’s sports — there’s probably some smart kid out there, some smart college kid who’s going to make a lot of money betting WNBA women’s college basketball, women’s anything really.
投注女子体育 ——可能有一些聪明的孩子，一些聪明的大学生，他们会通过投注 WNBA 女子大学篮球赚很多钱，女人真的什么都可以。
He’s building a model or just using intuition?
他是在建立模型还是只是凭直觉？
Or reading a lot on the internet?
或者在网上大量阅读？
How might he be doing that?
他怎么可能这么做呢？
My guess is the model, combined with knowledge of a league, can get you pretty far.
我的猜测是，该模型与联赛知识相结合，可以让您走得更远。
Injury data, for example, is much worse for women’s sports than for men’s sports.
例如，女子运动的伤病数据比男子运动要差得多。
They don’t have the same reporting protocols, even for the NCAA tournament.
他们没有相同的报告协议，即使是 NCAA 锦标赛也是如此。
We actually were trying to use injury data in our women’s NCAA model, and you have to do one-by-one individual Google searches for it.
事实上，我们试图在女子 NCAA 模型中使用伤病数据，你必须在谷歌上进行一对一的搜索才能找到它。
Yes, there’s still a reward to having knowledge that nobody else has, or that few other people have.
是的，拥有别人没有或很少有人拥有的知识仍然是有回报的。
People are basically pretty lazy and don’t necessarily do the legwork on that.
人们基本上都很懒，不一定会为此跑腿。
On redesigning the NBA
关于重新设计 NBA
You mentioned Cooper Flagg before.
你之前提到过库珀·弗拉格。
As you know, he was drafted number one by the Dallas Mavericks, who are quite a good team.
如你所知，他是达拉斯小牛队在状元秀中选中的，这是一支非常优秀的球队。
You have what?
你有什么？
Houston and Philly drafting two and three?
休斯顿和费城选秀二号和三号？
Wizards draft number six?
奇才队第六顺位选秀？
Yes.
是的。
Do we need to redesign the NBA draft lottery?
我们需要重新设计 NBA 选秀抽签吗？
People complained before that there was too much tanking, and now I guess they’re saying that it doesn’t reward tanking teams enough.
人们之前抱怨坦克太多了，现在我猜他们是说坦克队没有得到足够的奖励。
I think it’s probably fairly optimal.
我认为这可能是相当理想的。
This year was weird in the sense that all the top three teams are accomplished in certain ways, or have other things going for them.
今年很奇怪，因为所有排名前三的球队都在某些方面取得了成就，或者有其他事情对他们有利。
I like the old — was it the Mike Zarren — proposal for the wheel, where every team gets the first pick once every 30 years, and you know ahead of time which one it is.
我喜欢旧的——迈克·扎伦（Mike Zarren）的轮盘提案，每支球队每 30 年获得一次第一顺位，而且你可以提前知道是哪一支。
I don’t like incentivizing failure in any context.
我不喜欢在任何情况下激励失败。
I don’t think fans mind rooting for leagues where one team is great and the other’s a perpetual underdog.
我不认为球迷介意支持一支球队很出色而另一支球队永远处于劣势的联赛。
The most popular sport in the world, of course, is soccer.
世界上最受欢迎的运动当然是足球。
There, you have teams that are winning teams every year for a century almost, in some cases.
在那里，有些球队几乎一个世纪以来每年都赢得球队。
It doesn’t seem to bother people as much.
它似乎并没有那么困扰人们。
It’s fair we have American sports — it’s a cliché — are socialist, and European sports are more capitalist, basically.
公平地说，我们的美国体育运动是社会主义的，而欧洲体育运动基本上是资本主义的。
Is there a crisis in NBA regular-season design?
NBA常规赛设计是否存在危机？
I had been kind of a naysayer of this until I watched this year’s playoffs and how much higher octane they were and how enjoyable it was to watch a game from start to finish.
我一直对此持反对态度，直到我观看了今年的季后赛，才知道它们的辛烷值有多高，以及从头到尾观看一场比赛是多么令人愉快。
Look, I think it’s a moving target.
看，我认为这是一个移动目标。
If you shorten the season to 66 games or 72, people will still complain about that being too many.
如果你把赛季缩短到66场或72场，人们仍然会抱怨太多了。
I used to live near Madison Square Garden, and for a regular Knicks game, the get-in price could be $200.
我以前住在麦迪逊广场花园附近，一场常规的尼克斯队比赛，入场费可能是 200 美元。
I understand why they might not want to change it, but I think you probably want to go to, maybe not 66, but maybe 72 or something like that, and see how that goes.
我理解为什么他们可能不想改变它，但我认为你可能想要去，也许不是 66，但可能是 72 或类似的东西，看看情况如何。
There were so many decisive injuries this year.
今年有很多决定性的伤病。
I forget the whole list, but it seems almost half the important players, including the seventh game of the finals, were decided, in essence, by injury.
我忘记了整个名单，但似乎几乎一半的重要球员，包括总决赛第七场，本质上都是由伤病决定的。
Look, in every other sport — in football, you’re only playing half the downs roughly.
瞧，在其他所有运动中——在足球中，你只打了大约一半的比赛。
In hockey, apart from the goalie, you’re playing .
在曲棍球比赛中，除了守门员之外，还有你在比赛。
.
。
.
。
There are three or four lines that shift.
有三四条线发生了变化。
In baseball, you’re only in the field half the time.
在棒球比赛中，你只有一半的时间在球场上。
The continuous strain on NBA basketball played at such a high — it’s a totally different sport.
NBA 篮球比赛的持续压力如此之高——这是一项完全不同的运动。
You go back and watch clips from the ’70s or the ’80s, and it’s a totally different sport.
你回头看 70 年代或 80 年代的片段，你会发现这是一项完全不同的运动。
I think it’s a much better sport now.
我认为现在这是一项更好的运动。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
It sucks to see these guys.
看到这些家伙真是太糟糕了。
Jayson Tatum is a very graceful player.
杰森·塔图姆是一位非常优雅的球员。
Haliburton’s a little herky-jerky, but has a certain grace in how he steps.
哈利伯顿有点急躁，但他的脚步却有一定的优雅。
I think the league has to .
我认为联盟必须这样做。
.
。
.
。
You see that in baseball too with Tommy Johns surgeries and things like that.
你在棒球比赛中也可以看到汤米·琼斯的手术和类似的事情。
There are always downsides to achieving optimization to a degree we didn’t necessarily expect and pushing things to the brink.
实现优化到我们不一定期望的程度并将事情推向边缘总是有缺点。
Now, the equilibrium probably is that players always are pushing things to the brink.
现在，平衡可能是玩家总是将事情推向边缘。
They’re very competitive.
他们非常有竞争力。
They’re extremely well compensated.
他们的报酬非常丰厚。
There is, appropriately, demand for coaches and trainers and everything else for high effort.
适当地，对教练和培训师以及其他一切需要高努力的东西的需求。
You also have short-term incentives.
您还有短期激励。
Teams don’t really care that much about what happens to their star player who’s on the end of his contract, in theory.
从理论上讲，球队并不太关心合同即将到期的明星球员会发生什么。
They might be happy.
他们可能会很高兴。
Yes, but I think you probably have to trim a few games off schedule, or have something where maybe you say the individual player limit is 75 games, and every player is guaranteed at least seven days’ rest, and you are required to publish them in advance.
是的，但是我觉得你可能要删掉几场比赛，或者说个人限制是75场比赛，并且保证每个球员至少有7天的休息时间，并且要求你提前公布。
So, if I’m going to see Giannis play for Milwaukee, I have no interest in seeing the Bucks without Giannis in their current form, for example.
因此，如果我要看到扬尼斯为密尔沃基队效力，那么我没有兴趣看到雄鹿队目前的状态没有扬尼斯。
Maybe something like that could be an intermediate step.
也许类似的事情可能是一个中间步骤。
Let’s say you’re advising LeBron James, and this coming year possibly is his last or certainly his next to last.
假设你正在为勒布朗·詹姆斯提供建议，而明年可能是他的最后一年，或者肯定是他的倒数第二年。
The Lakers are not good enough to really go anywhere in the next year.
湖人队还不够好，无法在明年真正取得任何进展。
Probably you agree with that.
也许你同意这一点。
But he has a signed contract for what, about $50 million?
但他签了一份合同，价值大约 5000 万美元？
Yes.
是的。
On LeBron James and other top talent
关于勒布朗·詹姆斯和其他顶尖人才
What do you advise LeBron?
你对勒布朗有什么建议？
Just as a human being, “LeBron, what should you maximize?” What do you tell him?
就像一个人一样，“勒布朗，你应该最大化什么？”你告诉他什么？
LeBron’s in a funny place because, I think, he’s clearly, by the career metrics, now the best NBA player of all time.
勒布朗的处境很有趣，因为我认为，从职业生涯的指标来看，他现在显然是有史以来最好的 NBA 球员。
I agree.
我同意。
I don’t think he’ll ever win the hearts of people.
我认为他永远不会赢得人们的心。
You could argue LeBron was not as good as Jordan at the peak.
你可能会说勒布朗在巅峰时期不如乔丹。
You could argue Kareem’s peak was also higher, maybe very early in his career.
你可以说卡里姆的巅峰期也更高，也许是在他职业生涯的早期。
So, there’s nothing LeBron could do, short of winning three more titles.
因此，勒布朗除了再赢得三个冠军之外无能为力。
That would put him ahead of Jordan in that conversation.
这将使他在那次谈话中领先于乔丹。
I want LeBron to go to a young team where he can win a title and mentor some guys.
我希望勒布朗加入一支年轻的球队，在那里他可以赢得冠军并指导一些人。
Go to the Spurs, for example.
例如，去马刺队。
That might be a lot of fun.
这可能会很有趣。
But they’re not going to win a title with LeBron, not this year.
但他们不会和勒布朗一起赢得总冠军，今年不会。
Oh, I think the Spurs with LeBron James this year could potentially win a title.
哦，我认为今年拥有勒布朗·詹姆斯的马刺队有可能赢得总冠军。
Really?
真的吗？
That would shock me.
那会让我震惊。
I would give that, I don’t know, 4 percent or 5 percent.
我不知道是 4% 还是 5%。
Wemby is very, very good.
温比非常非常好。
He was playing at a level where .
他的比赛水平达到了。
.
。
.
。
There’s this DARKO NBA metric that tracks performance in real-time, which is usually not relevant for a 30-year-old mid-career player, but for someone like Wemby, it’s relevant.
NBA 有一个 DARKO 指标可以实时跟踪球员的表现，这通常与 30 岁的职业生涯中期球员无关，但对于像温比这样的人来说，它是相关的。
He was probably the fifth-best NBA player by the time he shut down his season.
当他赛季结束时，他可能已经是NBA第五好的球员了。
The chance that he’s still on the court by the end of the year, and as such a young player.
他有可能在今年年底前仍然留在球场上，而且还是一名年轻球员。
You look at the other true greats over time.
随着时间的推移，你会看到其他真正的伟人。
Kareem won something very early, but usually, people need .
卡里姆很早就赢得了一些东西，但通常，人们需要。
.
。
.
。
Michael Jordan needed some years, LeBron needed —
迈克尔·乔丹需要几年时间，勒布朗需要 ——
You don’t think Wemby and LeBron would be .
你认为温比和勒布朗不会。
.
。
.
。
and they have —
他们有 ——
No, I don’t bet, but I’d love to bet against them.
不，我不打赌，但我很想与他们打赌。
Next year, maybe then, right?
明年，也许那时，对吧？
They have one more year of maturity.
他们还有一年的成熟期。
They probably feel like maybe Dylan Harper’s a positive value asset at that point, and LeBron can sign a minimum contract in San Antonio.
他们可能觉得迪伦·哈珀在那时可能是一笔正值资产，而勒布朗可以在圣安东尼奥签下一份底薪合同。
Anyway, we know that’s your advice.
无论如何，我们知道这是您的建议。
What do you think of the hypothesis that in a given season, there’re only a few teams that can win it all, and you know in advance who they are?
您如何看待这样的假设：在某个赛季中，只有少数球队能够赢得全部冠军，并且您事先知道他们是谁？
Maybe last year it was Boston, Oklahoma, possibly Denver, and you should just bet on those teams.
也许去年是波士顿、俄克拉荷马州，可能还有丹佛，你应该押注在这些球队上。
Anything else is a true long shot.
其他任何事情都是真正的远景。
What do you think?
你怎么认为？
I think every basketball fan believes in some stylized version of that, but I think it’s become a little bit overstated.
我认为每个篮球迷都相信某种风格化的版本，但我认为它有点被夸大了。
Many of the teams now, the Nuggets people — until Jokić was seen as this ultimate beast of a postseason player, people were very skeptical about their ability to thrive in the postseason.
现在的许多球队，掘金队——直到约基奇被视为季后赛球员的终极野兽，人们对他们在季后赛中茁壮成长的能力非常怀疑。
Toronto didn’t fit the paradigm a couple of years ago.
几年前，多伦多并不符合这种模式。
Even Giannis had struggled in the postseason before they found success later on.
就连字母哥也曾在季后赛中挣扎过，后来才取得成功。
Look, you don’t have that many years of relevant NBA history.
瞧，你没有那么多年的相关 NBA 历史。
I think people maybe over-indexed a bit to the Bulls and Warriors dynasty.
我认为人们可能对公牛队和勇士队王朝的评价有点过高。
Why are the core young players of the Wizards mediocre, as you suggested in a recent Substack?
正如您在最近的 Substack 中所指出的那样，为什么奇才队的核心年轻球员表现平平？
They haven’t had that many elite picks in the most valuable drafts.
他们在最有价值的选秀中没有那么多精英选秀权。
They’re probably doing okay.
他们可能做得还不错。
That was, I think, my co-author saying that they were mediocre, although I agreed with him, to be fair.
我认为，我的合著者说它们很平庸，尽管公平地说我同意他的观点。
Haliburton was what, number 12?
哈利伯顿是什么，12号？
Steph Curry was number 7.
斯蒂芬·库里排名第七。
I forget all the numbers, but not everyone’s a top pick who’s great.
我忘记了所有的数字，但并不是每个人都是优秀的首选。
I haven’t looked at how persistent skill in NBA drafting is.
我还没看过NBA选秀的技术有多持久。
To me, it seems fairly persistent for San Antonio or OKC to consistently pick up players, or even Miami.
对我来说，马刺队或雷霆队似乎相当坚持不懈地挑选球员，甚至迈阿密队。
That seems to be a pretty consistent, persistent skill set.
这似乎是一套相当一致、持久的技能。
What’s your current update on the Philadelphia 76ers?
您目前对费城 76 人队的最新消息是什么？
You were bullish last year, and I was down on them.
去年你看好他们，而我看跌他们。
I want to claim victory on that one.
我想在这一点上取得胜利。
Yes, Daryl Morey, who .
是的，达里尔·莫雷，他。
.
。
.
。
Have you had him on Conversations with Tyler?
你有让他参加《与泰勒对话》吗？
You should.
你应该。
No, but would he do it?
不，但他会这么做吗？
Yes, of course.
是的当然。
Daryl is a big geek.
达里尔是个大极客。
He loves chess, loves a lot of things like that.
他热爱国际象棋，热爱很多类似的事情。
Okay.
好的。
He will tell you that his strategies are very high variance.
他会告诉你，他的策略差异非常大。
If Embiid is healthy, and if Edgecombe is good in his first year, and if Paul George is .
如果恩比德健康，如果埃奇库姆在他的第一年表现出色，如果保罗·乔治也好。
.
。
.
。
If they won 56 games next year — 56 is a lot — 52, 53, would that be shocking to me?
如果他们明年赢了 56 场比赛 —— 56 已经很多了 —— 52、53，这会让我感到震惊吗？
Not totally.
不完全是。
The East is pretty wide open.
东部地区还是比较开阔的。
They have this second timeline that now is a little bit more optimistic.
他们有第二个时间表，现在有点乐观了。
We have this piece now, where we’re ranking all 30 NBA teams by their long-term, 10-year chance of winning a championship, and they’re right in the middle for me, I think: 15th out of 30.
我们现在有了这篇文章，我们根据 10 年赢得总冠军的长期机会对所有 30 支 NBA 球队进行排名，我认为他们在我看来处于中间位置：在 30 支球队中排名第 15 位。
On mentors
关于导师
Who are the most important mentors in your life, including for basketball?
谁是你生命中最重要的导师，包括篮球方面的导师？
For sports writing in general, Bill James is somebody who’s a mentor.
对于体育写作来说，比尔·詹姆斯是一位导师。
What did you learn from him personally, other than reading?
除了阅读之外，您从他个人身上学到了什么？
He’s a great writer.
他是一位伟大的作家。
Bill is kind of a wise ass, but understanding that good writing about technical subjects can still be good writing, period.
比尔是个聪明人，但理解技术主题的优秀写作仍然可以是优秀的写作，就这样。
If you’re an 8 out of 10 as a writer and 8 out of 10 as a statistician, that might be more valuable than being a 10 out of 10 and a 2 out of 10 in the other area, potentially, in this era where we’re on Substack and things like that.
如果你是十分之八的作家，十分之八的统计学家，那么在这个我们使用 Substack 之类的时代，这可能比在其他领域成为十分之 10 和十分之 2 的人更有价值。
Richard Thaler is somebody I got to know at Chicago a little bit and someone I’d consider a mentor.
理查德·塞勒（Richard Thaler）是我在芝加哥认识的一个人，我认为他是我的导师。
I followed you for a long time, Tyler, as well.
我也跟着你很久了，泰勒。
I’m also someone who — it’s a cliché — but always blazed my own trail a little bit.
我也是这样一个人：“这是陈词滥调”，但总是开辟出一点自己的道路。
In terms of election forecasting, there’re some people — Robert Erikson’s a professor at Columbia, who had pretty good election models early on, but in general, all this was done badly.
在选举预测方面，有一些人——罗伯特·埃里克森是哥伦比亚大学的教授，他早期有很好的选举模型，但总的来说，这一切都做得很糟糕。
I’m like, “Okay, the product I want doesn’t exist.
我想，“好吧，我想要的产品不存在。
I’m going to have to go ahead and make it myself.”
我必须自己动手做。”
What do you feel you need mentors for now?
你觉得你现在需要导师的是什么？
I don’t know if I have mentors for as much.
我不知道我是否有同样多的导师。
I just want people that are interested —
我只想要有兴趣的人 —
I need mentors to learn what’s new in AI.
我需要导师来了解人工智能的最新动态。
I can follow it myself, but I need a lot of help.
我自己可以遵循，但我需要很多帮助。
Maybe mentor is not quite .
也许导师并不完全是这样。
.
。
.
。
For AI stuff readings, is it Mowshowitz, right?
对于人工智能相关的读物，莫肖维茨是吧？
Yes.
是的。
He is a mentor for following AI developments because he’s very levelheaded about it and very comprehensive.
他是关注人工智能发展的导师，因为他对此非常冷静且非常全面。
He’ll write a novel every week, basically, on AI.
基本上，他每周都会写一本关于人工智能的小说。
But he thinks it’s going to kill us all.
但他认为这会杀死我们所有人。
It’s funny you would call him levelheaded.
有趣的是你会说他头脑冷静。
He might think he’s correct, but —
他可能认为自己是对的，但是 ——
On West Coast culture
西海岸文化
Look, I do think that that AI safety/rationalist community — it is a bubble.
看，我确实认为人工智能安全/理性主义社区 ——它是一个泡沫。
If you go to the Manifest conference, for example — have you been?
例如，如果您参加了 Manifest 会议 — 您去过吗？
No, but I know what it is.
不，但我知道那是什么。
Yes.
是的。
How would I put this diplomatically?
我该如何用外交的方式表达这一点？
I’ve been around a lot of weird people.
我周围有很多奇怪的人。
These people are weird and proudly so, even relative to the other weird people in that cohort, I think, in ways that allow them to be very experimental and open-minded about everything from polyamory to whatever else.
我认为，这些人很奇怪，而且很自豪，即使是相对于那个群体中的其他奇怪的人来说，他们的方式也让他们能够对从多元之爱到其他任何事情都保持非常实验性和开放的态度。
I do think they maybe don’t recognize, (a) political constraints, (b) the adaptability of human beings potentially, as I talked about before.
我确实认为他们可能没有认识到，（a）政治限制，（b）人类潜在的适应性，正如我之前谈到的。
It’s not at all obvious to me that you leap from rough AGI to comprehensive AGI, and then to comprehensive AGI for the physical realm, and then to ASI.
从粗略的 AGI 到全面的 AGI，再到物理领域的全面的 AGI，最后到 ASI，对我来说一点也不明显。
I think the AI 2027 forecasters .
我认为人工智能 2027 年的预测者。
.
。
.
。
When I was at Manifest, I said, “Okay, our timelines have moved out by a couple of years.” That seemed an interesting update, for example.
当我在 Manifest 时，我说：“好吧，我们的时间表已经推迟了几年。”例如，这似乎是一个有趣的更新。
So, I wrote a new preface to On the Edge, and I wrote this back in, I guess, February and March, at a time when Elon had a lot of influence in the White House, when they were pressing the accelerator on AI stuff more, when tariffs were going into effect.
所以，我为《边缘》写了一篇新的序言，我想是在二月和三月写的，当时埃隆在白宫有很大的影响力，他们更多地加速人工智能的发展，关税即将生效。
I wrote then that my P(doom) had increased relative to the book.
我当时写道，我的 P（厄运）相对于这本书有所增加。
You just don’t think it can be a superforecaster, but it can do us all in.
你只是认为它不能成为超级预测者，但它可以帮助我们所有人。
I worry about humans killing other humans with AIs that make making weapons easier, or certain types of terrorism easier, or chemical compounds could be dangerous.
我担心人类会用人工智能杀死其他人，这些人工智能使制造武器变得更容易，或者某些类型的恐怖主义变得更容易，或者化学物质可能是危险的。
I worry about all of that.
我担心这一切。
That wouldn’t be doom.
那不会是厄运。
Those would be some bad events.
那些将是一些不好的事件。
Right now, drones can be very bad, and they are every day.
现在，无人机可能非常糟糕，而且每天都如此。
You’ve said this before, too.
你以前也说过这个。
We have not lived with nuclear weapons for that many generations.
我们已经有好几代人没有生活在核武器之中了。
That’s still a little bit frightening.
这还是有点可怕。
You get to get some of the Nick Bostrom stuff, where eventually, when we have some technology we unfortunately invent, where it’s asymmetric, where any one crazy person can maybe destroy the world if they get access to the right systems that can’t be that well protected, and things like that.
你会得到一些尼克·博斯特罗姆（Nick Bostrom）的东西，最终，当我们不幸地发明了一些技术时，它是不对称的，任何一个疯狂的人如果能够访问无法得到很好保护的正确系统，就可能毁灭世界，诸如此类。
Look, in some ways, I think the AIs are more human-like than people expected, and that, to me, seems like a positive update.
看，在某些方面，我认为人工智能比人们预期的更像人类，对我来说，这似乎是一个积极的更新。
If you think about the Manifold types in terms of the framework in your book, how they think about risk — is there a common feature that they’re more risk-averse, or that they worry more?
如果你根据书中的框架来思考流形类型，他们如何看待风险 ——是否存在一个共同特征，即他们更厌恶风险，或者他们更担心？
Is there a common feature that they like the idea that they hold some kind of secret knowledge that other people do not have?
他们是否有一个共同的特点，那就是他们喜欢自己拥有某种其他人不知道的秘密知识？
How do you classify them?
你如何对它们进行分类？
They’re just high in openness, or what is it?
他们只是开放性很高，或者是什么？
They’re high in openness to experience.
他们对体验持高度开放态度。
I think they’re very high in conscientiousness.
我认为他们的责任心非常高。
Are they?
他们是吗？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
Some of them are.
其中一些是。
Some of them are, yes.
其中一些是，是的。
I think of them as high variance in conscientiousness, rather than high in it.
我认为它们是责任心的高度差异，而不是高度。
The EAs and the rationalists are more high variance, I think.
我认为 EA 和理性主义者的方差更高。
There can be a certain type of gullibility is one problem.
问题之一可能是存在某种类型的轻信。
I think, obviously, EA took a lot of hits for Sam Bankman-Fried, but if anything, they probably should have taken more reputational damage.
我认为，显然，EA 因萨姆·班克曼-弗里德 (Sam Bankman-Fried) 遭受了很多打击，但如果有的话，他们可能应该遭受更多的声誉损失。
That was really bad, and there were a lot of signs of it, including his interviews with you and other people like that.
这真的很糟糕，而且有很多迹象，包括他对你和其他类似人的采访。
It contrasts with poker players who have similar phenotypes but are much more suspicious and much more street smart.
它与具有相似表型但更可疑且更聪明的扑克玩家形成鲜明对比。
Also, the Bay Area is weird.
另外，湾区也很奇怪。
I feel like the West Coast is diverging more from the rest of the country.
我觉得西海岸与全国其他地区的差异更大。
I agree.
我同意。
It’s like a long way away.
就好像距离很远一样。
Just the mannerisms are different.
只是言行举止不同而已。
You go to a small thing.
你去做一件小事。
You go to a house party in the Bay Area.
你去湾区参加一个家庭聚会。
There may not be very much wine, for example.
例如，酒可能不多。
In New York, if the host isn’t drinking, then it’d be considered sacrilege not to have plenty of booze at a party.
在纽约，如果主人不喝酒，那么在聚会上不喝大量的酒会被认为是亵渎。
Little things like that, little cultural norms.
像这样的小事，小文化规范。
You go to Seattle — it feels like Canada to me almost, and so these things are diverging more.
你去西雅图——对我来说，它几乎就像加拿大，所以这些事情的分歧更大。
Why is belief in doom correlated with practice of polyamory?
为什么对末日的信仰与多角恋的实践相关？
And I think it is.
我认为是的。
If you ask Aella, I guess, she might say, if we’re all going to die or go to whatever singularity there is, we might as well have fun in the meantime.
如果你问艾拉，我想，她可能会说，如果我们都会死或者去到任何奇点，那么我们不妨同时享受乐趣。
There’s some of that kind of hedonism.
有一些这样的享乐主义。
Although in general, it’s not a super hedonistic movement.
虽然总的来说，这并不是一场超级享乐主义运动。
It seems too economistic to me.
对我来说这似乎太经济了。
Even I, the economist — I don’t feel people think that economistically.
即使是我，这位经济学家 ——我也不认为人们是从经济学角度思考的。
There’s more likely some psychological predisposition toward both views.
这两种观点更有可能存在某种心理倾向。
I guess you could argue that society would be better organized in a more polyamorous relationship.
我想你可能会说，在更加多元化的关系中，社会会更好地组织起来。
People do it implicitly in a lot of ways anyway, including in the LGBTQ community, which has different attitudes toward it potentially.
无论如何，人们以多种方式隐含地这样做，包括 LGBTQ 群体，他们对此可能持有不同的态度。
and if there’s not as much childbearing, that can have an effect, potentially.
如果生育次数减少，这可能会产生影响。
I think it’s like they are not being constrained by their own society thing that is taken very seriously in that group.
我认为他们并没有受到自己的社会事物的限制，而这些事物在该群体中是非常认真对待的。
There’s enough disconnectedness and aloofness where they’re able to play it out in practice more.
有足够的脱节和冷漠，他们能够在实践中更多地发挥这一点。
That creeps a little bit into Silicon Valley too, which can be much more whimsical and fanciful than the Wall Street types I know, for example.
这也渗透到了硅谷，比我所认识的华尔街类型的人更加异想天开和充满幻想。
On Canadian hockey and politics
关于加拿大曲棍球和政治
Why can’t Canada win the Stanley Cup?
为什么加拿大队拿不到斯坦利杯冠军？
I remember —
我记得 ——
It’s 1992 the last time.
上次是1992年了。
Is that correct?
这是正确的吗？
I’ve forgotten when.
我已经忘记什么时候了。
Writing about this in the New York Times in 2012?
2012 年在《纽约时报》上写过这篇文章？
2013, maybe?
2013年，也许？
2013, right?
2013年，对吧？
Yes.
是的。
I remember.
我记得。
And it’s still true.
这仍然是事实。
Yes.
是的。
I go into one of my favorite sports bars.
我走进我最喜欢的体育酒吧之一。
They have the article printed out in the bathroom there, let people see articles in the bathroom while you’re taking a shit.
他们把文章打印在浴室里，让人们在你拉屎的时候在浴室里看到文章。
You can read some article.
你可以读一些文章。
I’m reading my own article in the bathroom.
我正在浴室里读我自己的文章。
Look, tax laws matter a little bit, where Florida has no state income tax in a league with a salary cap.
看，税法有点重要，佛罗里达州在有工资上限的联盟中没有州所得税。
Actually, a good friend of mine is the assistant general manager for the Florida Panthers, Sunny Mehta.
事实上，我的一个好朋友是佛罗里达黑豹队的助理总经理桑尼·梅塔。
Yes, if you’re making de facto 10 percent or 15 percent more in a hard-capped league, that matters quite a bit.
是的，如果你在一个硬顶联盟中事实上赚了 10% 或 15% 的钱，那就很重要了。
If you’re playing in Canada, isn’t your endorsement income higher, maybe?
如果你在加拿大打球，你的代言收入不是更高吗？
Or is that not true?
或者事实并非如此？
It’s a smaller market overall.
总体而言，这是一个较小的市场。
It’s less wealthy than us.
比我们还穷。
If you’re a Canadian NHL superstar playing in the US — I don’t think Sidney Crosby has any trouble.
如果您是在美国打球的加拿大 NHL 超级巨星 — 我认为西德尼·克罗斯比 (Sidney Crosby) 不会遇到任何麻烦。
I don’t know if he’s on Tim Horton ads, or whatever.
我不知道他是否出现在蒂姆霍顿的广告中，或者其他什么。
Yes, I don’t know.
是的，我不知道。
Around the world, we used to talk about which countries are immune to the populist right sentiment or whatever you want to call it.
在世界各地，我们曾经谈论哪些国家不受民粹主义右翼情绪或任何你想称呼的东西的影响。
Now, Japan is flirting with populist right sentiment.
现在，日本正在与民粹主义右翼情绪调情。
Canada — not at the national level, but it almost happened in some way.
加拿大——虽然不是在国家层面，但它几乎以某种方式发生了。
The truck driver thing a couple of years ago in Ottawa.
几年前渥太华的卡车司机事件。
Yes.
是的。
What’s your update since the last few times we’ve spoken?
自从我们上次交谈以来，您有什么最新消息？
Is it just going to come everywhere?
它会无处不在吗？
Is anywhere immune?
任何地方都可以免疫吗？
In Ireland, do you see signs of it?
在爱尔兰，你看到它的迹象了吗？
They may not win the next election, but it seemed to be totally absent a few years ago.
他们可能不会赢得下一次选举，但几年前似乎完全缺席。
Now, Conor McGregor is running, and I don’t think he’ll win, but he’ll have some kind of impact.
现在，康纳·麦格雷戈正在竞选，我认为他不会获胜，但他会产生某种影响。
I think parts of Europe and maybe Canada that are maybe anti-US may become more resistant to populist sentiment, for example.
例如，我认为反美的欧洲部分地区，也许还有加拿大，可能会变得更加抵制民粹主义情绪。
I have a friend who is Irish, actually, and gay, and moved here when he was 20.
我有一个朋友，实际上是爱尔兰人，也是同性恋，20 岁时搬到了这里。
He’s like, “When I was growing up in Ireland, it was quite anti-gay.
他说，“当我在爱尔兰长大时，那里非常反同性恋。
It was a very religious country.” Now it’s almost aggressively pro-LGBTQ+.
那是一个非常宗教化的国家。”现在它几乎是积极支持 LGBTQ+ 的。
It could be both.
可能两者皆有。
As you know, the head of AFD in Germany — she’s lesbian with a Sri Lankan partner.
如你所知，德国 AFD 的负责人 ——她是女同性恋，有一名斯里兰卡伴侣。
Is that correct?
这是正确的吗？
Something like that, yes.
类似的事情，是的。
She’s populist right, and she is pro-gay rights, and openly and proudly so.
她是民粹主义右派，也是支持同性恋权利的人，而且公开且自豪地如此。
Look, I mostly believe in thermostatic effects in politics, where people run in the opposite direction of the status quo more and more.
看，我主要相信政治中的恒温效应，人们越来越多地朝着与现状相反的方向前进。
I think there were reasons why anti-incumbent and populist spirit rose from the pandemic onward, but we might have been at a high-water mark for it, potentially, in parts of the world.
我认为，从大流行开始，反现任和民粹主义精神兴起是有原因的，但在世界部分地区，我们可能已经达到了最高水平。
But totally it seems we’re not at a high-water mark.
但总的来说，我们似乎还没有达到最高水平。
It’s rising in quite a few other nations.
在其他一些国家，这一数字也在上升。
I guess I’m speaking about Canada, Western Europe, other high-income countries.
我想我说的是加拿大、西欧和其他高收入国家。
Maybe I’m wrong.
也许我错了。
On the political economy of immigration
论移民的政治经济学
Something that’s puzzled me, and I’ve even asked prime ministers this.
这让我很困惑，我什至向首相询问过这个问题。
I’ve never gotten a good answer.
我从来没有得到好的答案。
It seems to me, really, a lot of European voters in some key nations want much lower immigration, whatever you and I might think.
在我看来，确实，无论你我怎么想，一些关键国家的许多欧洲选民都希望移民数量大幅减少。
They clearly want it, and they don’t get it.
他们显然想要它，但他们没有得到。
The populist parties on the right continue to rise.
右翼民粹主义政党继续崛起。
Why don’t they get it?
他们为什么不明白呢？
Why don’t the centrist politicians in power just do something?
为什么当权的中间派政客不采取行动呢？
Hold their noses if they don’t like doing it, but just do it, and stay in office.
如果他们不喜欢这样做，就捏住他们的鼻子，但就这样做，然后继续留在办公室。
You have seen some of that in Denmark.
你在丹麦已经看到了其中的一些。
For example, you’ve seen much less immigration.
例如，您看到的移民要少得多。
Even Justin Trudeau has said we need to cut down the amount of legal immigration as well as illegal immigration.
就连贾斯汀·特鲁多也表示，我们需要减少合法移民和非法移民的数量。
Germany’s not doing it, UK’s not doing it, Ireland is not doing it.
德国没有这样做，英国没有这样做，爱尔兰也没有这样做。
Netherlands is now doing it, but it just seems to be a very slow process, given how I think about democratic accountability on most other issues.
荷兰现在正在这样做，但考虑到我对大多数其他问题的民主问责制的看法，这似乎是一个非常缓慢的过程。
They used to be more restrained of it on the left in the US, where Bernie Sanders, for example, would have issues like immigration, where he’s a little bit more cautious.
美国的左翼人士过去对此更加克制，例如，伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)在移民等问题上会更加谨慎。
If you have a generous welfare state and admitting somebody new to it is potentially going to cost everybody.
如果你有一个慷慨的福利国家，接纳新人可能会让每个人付出代价。
I think all this might reverse within a few years, where the world realizes we have a shortage of young people in general, a fertility crisis, if you want to call it that, and an aging population, and will want to have people who are willing to work hard and are skilled in particular, so maybe they’re skating to where the puck is going.
我认为这一切可能会在几年内发生逆转，世界意识到我们普遍缺乏年轻人、生育危机（如果你想这么说的话）和人口老龄化，并且希望拥有愿意努力工作、特别是有技能的人，所以也许他们正在滑向冰球要去的地方。
The US also has, I think, particularly efficient political outcomes in some ways.
我认为，美国在某些方面也取得了特别有效的政治成果。
People take for granted the fact that you have these coalitions that are 50–50 approximately very consistently.
人们理所当然地认为，这些大约 50-50 人的联盟非常一致。
Trump remade the GOP in a lot of ways, but still, every election is roughly 50–50 with a different coalition than you had before.
特朗普在很多方面重塑了共和党，但每次选举的结果都是大约 50 对 50，其联盟与以前不同。
Maybe our electoral technology is better.
也许我们的选举技术更好。
Right now, America is quite pro-immigrant compared to most of the world.
目前，与世界上大多数国家相比，美国相当支持移民。
Sure.
当然。
Because of backlash, Trump becoming at least nominally more pro-immigrant again, it would have been interesting —
由于强烈反对，特朗普至少在名义上再次变得更加支持移民，这本来会很有趣 -
I’m not sure that’s true, though.
不过，我不确定这是真的。
I know all the polls that people cite, but when I look at the electorate’s willingness to tolerate, say, ICE activity, my sense is they’ll just put up with it.
我知道人们引用的所有民意调查，但当我看到选民容忍 ICE 活动的意愿时，我的感觉是他们只会忍受。
Look, I think the consensus is that we have some bad guys, as Trump would call them, and people are not particularly sympathetic to them.
看，我认为共识是我们有一些坏人，正如特朗普所说的那样，人们并不特别同情他们。
I think people are broadly tolerant toward the migrant worker class for the most part.
我认为人们对于农民工阶层的态度总体上还是比较宽容的。
I think people are broadly supportive of skilled immigration.
我认为人们普遍支持技术移民。
People want more border enforcement.
人们希望加强边境执法。
There is a consensus there that the two parties can’t seem to actually reach a consensus on.
有一个共识，但两党似乎无法真正达成共识。
I agree with the polling issues a little bit.
我有点同意民意调查的问题。
If you ask people, “How do you feel about this 10-item list of questions on immigration?” They’ll side with the left.
如果你问人们：“你对这 10 项移民问题有何看法？”他们会站在左派一边。
“Then, who do you like more?
“那你更喜欢谁呢？
Trump or Democrats?” They’ll still say we trust Trump a little bit more.
特朗普还是民主党？”他们仍然会说我们更信任特朗普一点。
Democrats do have this problem a little bit, where you give them an inch and they’ll take a mile.
民主党确实有这个问题，你让他们一英寸，他们就会退一步。
I think people correctly are worried about those excesses.
我认为人们对这些过度行为的担忧是正确的。
During COVID, for example, I was very cautious in the first three months, really, of COVID.
例如，在新冠疫情期间，我在前三个月非常谨慎。
I remember the first time I went outdoors to a restaurant.
我记得我第一次去户外餐厅。
It was June or something.
那是六月什么的。
I was terrified.
我很害怕。
I hadn’t been around other people apart from a couple of friends, if we’re being honest, in months.
老实说，除了几个朋友之外，我已经好几个月没有和其他人在一起了。
But then you realized that half of the public health people wanted no real socialization until we had vaccines and maybe not even after that.
但后来你意识到，在我们拥有疫苗之前，甚至在疫苗问世之后，一半的公共卫生人员不想真正的社交。
So, people are worried that if you let progressives have some power, then things do get taken too far, even though, nominally, the incrementals said they might agree with the liberal side.
因此，人们担心，如果让进步派拥有一些权力，那么事情确实会走得太远，尽管名义上，进步派表示他们可能同意自由派的观点。
Two last questions.
最后两个问题。
First, do you have a surprising prediction for the United States?
首先，您对美国有一个令人惊讶的预测吗？
How long will the US last?
美国还能坚持多久？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I don’t know if I have a prediction there exactly.
我不知道我是否有准确的预测。
It’s hard to have surprising predictions, Tyler.
泰勒，很难做出令人惊讶的预测。
COWEN: It is, but do you have a surprising prediction for the NBA?
COWEN：是的，但是你对 NBA 有什么令人惊讶的预测吗？
Like, I think the Lakers will do poorly this year.
就像，我认为湖人队今年的表现会很差。
I’m not sure it’s surprising.
我不确定这是否令人惊讶。
In my records, the Lakers ranked relatively high, actually.
在我的记录中，湖人队的排名实际上是比较靠前的。
Our last session, you said Luka was properly rated.
我们上一次会议上，你说卢卡得到了正确的评价。
I now see his own team didn’t want him.
我现在发现他自己的球队不需要他。
LeBron is not crazy about having him around.
勒布朗并不热衷于有他在身边。
Earlier, Jalen Brunson didn’t want to play with him.
早些时候，杰伦·布伦森不想和他一起打球。
To me, that’s a lot of negative information, so I think the Lakers will do poorly.
对我来说，这是很多负面信息，所以我认为湖人队会表现不佳。
I’m looking more like a long-term brand intangible, which I think does seem to matter a lot in the NBA.
我看起来更像是一个长期的无形品牌，我认为这在 NBA 中确实很重要。
They have new ownership now that can spend all the luxury tax that they want.
他们现在有了新的所有权，可以花掉他们想要的所有奢侈税。
Look, when I saw Luka last year, he didn’t seem quite like himself, but it’s actually a reason why you want to .
听着，当我去年看到卢卡时，他看起来不太像他自己，但这实际上是你想要的一个原因。
.
。
.
。
Do you want to bet on the overachieving athlete?
您想把赌注押在成绩优异的运动员身上吗？
No, they’re already overachieving, they’re maximizing.
不，他们已经取得了超额成就，他们正在最大化。
Whereas an athlete who has a problem, has a drinking problem — not drinking — having too many beers or being a little bit lazy.
而有问题的运动员则有饮酒问题——“不喝酒”——“喝太多啤酒或有点懒”。
He has much more potential to grow if he gets his act together, like fully healthy Luka.
如果他能像完全健康的卢卡一样齐心协力，他就有更大的成长潜力。
Their salary cap situation’s pretty good in the long run.
从长远来看，他们的工资帽状况相当不错。
Could be a powerful team.
可以成为一支强大的团队。
Larry Bird is an example on your side, but I tend to bet against such people mentally when it comes to it.
拉里·伯德（Larry Bird）就是你这边的一个例子，但我倾向于在心理上打赌这些人。
Maybe that’s a difference between us.
也许这就是我们之间的差异。
People who are maximizing currently?
目前正在最大化的人？
No, people who have some problem, like they drink too much, or they’re not conscientious enough, or bad attitude.
不，那些有问题的人，比如喝太多，或者不够尽责，或者态度不好。
But you want high variance here, right?
但你想要这里的高方差，对吧？
You want high variance here, and maybe if Luka takes Ozempic or something, then all of a sudden, you have Lakers championship.
你想要这里的高方差，也许如果卢卡拿下奥泽皮克之类的东西，那么突然之间，你就拥有了湖人队的冠军。
Again, a plug for the new paperback edition, On the Edge: The Art of Risking Everything.
再次，新平装本《边缘：冒险一切的艺术》的插件。
The final question is, what will you be doing next?
最后一个问题是，你接下来要做什么？
I’m working on an NFL model currently.
我目前正在制作 NFL 模型。
I miss having a book project, Tyler, because every day, even days when you’re struggling to write or an interview doesn’t come through, whatever else, having these big projects that I work on, I find to be very important.
我怀念写书项目，泰勒，因为每一天，即使是在你努力写作或面试失败的日子，无论如何，拥有我正在从事的这些大项目，我发现都非常重要。
No one’s stopping you, so what’s it going to be?
没有人阻止你，那么会发生什么呢？
I know.
我知道。
Or you’re still looking.
或者你还在寻找。
First of all, the newsletter, Silver Bulletin, did quite a bit better than I expected last year.
首先，时事通讯《Silver Bulletin》去年的表现比我预期的要好得多。
That’s the short-term project.
这就是短期项目。
I have a couple of ideas for books when I write the next book, which might be in a few years.
当我写下一本书（可能是几年后）时，我对书籍有一些想法。
I have ideas for books about sports.
我对有关体育的书籍有一些想法。
I don’t want to give away too much.
我不想放弃太多。
That might surprise people a little bit.
这可能会让人们有点惊讶。
I still think of poker as a little bit of a project.
我仍然认为扑克是一个小项目。
It’s satisfying to be really good at something like poker.
能够真正擅长扑克这样的事情是令人满足的。
But for now, the newsletter — building toward that is the three-and-a-half-year plan here until the next election.
但就目前而言，时事通讯——朝着这个方向努力的目标是下一次选举之前的三年半计划。
Then maybe I finally escape the election treadmill, maybe after that.
然后也许我终于摆脱了选举的跑步机，也许在那之后。
I say that every time.
我每次都这么说。
This might be the last one, ’28.
这可能是最后一篇，'28。
We’ll see.
我们会看到的。
Nate Silver, thank you very much.
内特·西尔弗，非常感谢你。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。