Nassim Nicholas Taleb on Self-Education and Doing the Math (Ep. 41 - Live at Mercatus)

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I’m reminded of the words of the Hall of Famer Ernie Banks from Chicago, who used to always say, “Let’s play two,” when there was the possibility of a doubleheader.

我想起了来自芝加哥的名人堂成员厄尼·班克斯的话，当有双打的可能性时，他过去总是说：“让我们打两场吧”。

Nassim Nicholas Taleb has been gracious enough to agree to this dual event.

纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布（Nassim Nicholas Taleb）非常慷慨地同意了这一双重活动。

First, he and I will converse, and then he will talk with Bryan Caplan.

首先，他和我将交谈，然后他将与布莱恩·卡普兰交谈。

Just to be clear, as always, this is the conversation with Nassim Nicholas Taleb I want to have, not the one that you want to have.

需要澄清的是，一如既往，这是我想要与纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布进行的对话，而不是你想要进行的对话。

Historically, a very basic question: on page 7 of The Black Swan, you mention the 1975 Lebanese Civil War as having been a black swan of sorts.

从历史上看，这是一个非常基本的问题：在《黑天鹅》第 7 页上，您提到 1975 年的黎巴嫩内战是某种黑天鹅。

If we think back to the earlier history of the region — the growing role of the PLO in the country; the end of the Eisenhower Doctrine, which meant maybe the US would not intervene; the prior conflict in 1958; ongoing differences in birth rates with more Muslims being born — wasn’t it, in a sense, actually fairly predictable and not a black swan?

如果我们回顾该地区的早期历史——巴解组织在该国的作用日益增强；艾森豪威尔主义的终结，这意味着美国可能不会干预； 1958年之前的冲突；随着越来越多的穆斯林出生，出生率持续存在差异——从某种意义上说，这难道不是相当可预测的，而不是黑天鹅吗？

How do you see the history of your own country in this way?

您如何看待自己国家的历史？

Then, you have another thing — that these idiots brought in the PLO.

然后，还有另一件事——这些白痴带来了巴解组织。

After 1973, as a way that Lebanon wanted to stay neutral with Israel — not neutral, but engaged, to say, “OK, you guys can fight from here, but we’re not going to fight Israel.”

1973 年之后，黎巴嫩希望与以色列保持中立——不是中立，而是参与，即说：“好吧，你们可以从这里作战，但我们不会与以色列作战。”

Then, they didn’t realize that these guys were going to is try to take over the place.

然后，他们并没有意识到这些家伙想要占领这个地方。

So the imbalance came not from within.

因此，这种不平衡并非来自内部。

It came from a huge number of armed Palestinians in Lebanon that disrupted the balance and caused immediately, as a reaction, the Christians to go and get gone.

它来自黎巴嫩境内大量武装巴勒斯坦人，破坏了平衡，并立即引起基督徒的反应，离开。

We know that, genetically, the Phoenicians seem to have come from Anatolia largely, and Anatolia is the same place the Greeks came from.

我们知道，从基因上看，腓尼基人似乎主要来自安纳托利亚，而安纳托利亚与希腊人来自同一个地方。

So there is a connection that was just discovered a year ago.

所以这是一年前才发现的联系。

Maybe in five years from now, we’ll have a clearer view, rewriting history based on ancient DNA.

也许五年后，我们会有更清晰的视野，根据古代 DNA 改写历史。

But that would not explain the people.

但这并不能解释人们。

Why was it that Phoenicians had some kind of great working relation with the Greeks?

为什么腓尼基人与希腊人有某种良好的合作关系？

It looks like they were similar, maybe the same.

看起来他们很相似，甚至可能是相同的。

They had the same grandparents, to put it this way.

这么说吧，他们有同一个祖父母。

Also, there’s some mysterious thing.

另外，还有一些神秘的事情。

Why is it that the only people in Athens who were not metics, foreigners.

为什么雅典唯一的人不是梅蒂克人，而是外国人。

A metic is basically an H1B.

Metic基本上就是H1B。

You can’t vote.

你不能投票。

That positive program was the underdiscussed part of understanding your work.

这个积极的计划是理解你的工作时未被充分讨论的部分。

You’re trying to lay out how Lebanon could be seen or could be a Phoenician culture in the future.

你试图阐述黎巴嫩未来如何被视为腓尼基文化。

In 1860, the Christians of Lebanon did not write in Arabic.

1860年，黎巴嫩的基督徒还没有用阿拉伯语写作。

They wrote in a character called garshounè.

他们用一个叫做 garshunè 的角色写作。

The American University in Beirut came in and tried to recruit Muslims, and it didn’t work.

贝鲁特的美国大学介入并试图招收穆斯林，但没有成功。

At the time it was called Syrian Protestant College.

当时它被称为叙利亚新教学院。

They couldn’t convert Muslims, so they decided to convert Christians.

他们无法改变穆斯林的信仰，所以他们决定改变基督徒的信仰。

They translated the first translation of the Bible, the whole thing, into Arabic, which was done by the surgeon called Van Dyke.

他们将《圣经》的第一个译本全部翻译成阿拉伯语，由一位名叫范·戴克的外科医生完成。

An attempt had been done years earlier and failed.

几年前曾有人尝试过，但失败了。

So this Arabization that started in the 1860s in Lebanon, when the Turks were around, is, in fact, a distortion of history, a perception of habit.

因此，这种始于 1860 年代土耳其人在黎巴嫩的阿拉伯化实际上是对历史的歪曲，是对习惯的看法。

It’s trying to bring that part of the world away from the Ottoman Empire, which was a Balkan eastern Mediterranean world, in which the place had spent 500 years, and before that, a thousand years under Greco-Romans — trying to move it closer to Arabia.

它试图将世界的这一部分带离奥斯曼帝国，这是一个巴尔干东地中海世界，这个地方已经在那里度过了 500 年，在此之前，又经历了希腊罗马统治的一千年——试图将其移近阿拉伯半岛。

People bought the narrative because the Christians wanted to be non-Muslim, yet have the same rights.

人们接受这种说法是因为基督徒想成为非穆斯林，但又拥有同样的权利。

So they invented themselves some genetic story that they came from Yemen, they came from a tribe called the Banu Ghassan.

所以他们给自己编了一些基因故事，说他们来自也门，他们来自一个叫做巴努加桑的部落。

The Christians invented themselves some kind of story, “Yeah, the Phoenicians were here, but the Arabs kicked them out, and we, the Christians, come from .

基督徒给自己编了一个故事，“是的，腓尼基人在这里，但阿拉伯人把他们赶了出来，而我们基督徒来自那里。

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.” and it’s totally genetically bogus that the population had to move.

”。从基因上来说，人口必须迁移的说法完全是假的。

In fact, there is the same people.

事实上，还有同样的人。

I see that you brought a book about Charles Corm.

我看到你带来了一本关于查尔斯·科姆的书。

Charles Corm was the opposite narrative, the Western narrative that we are Greco-Roman.

查尔斯·科姆（Charles Corm）则持相反的说法，即我们是希腊罗马人的西方说法。

We had the School of Beirut, the religious school in Beirut that for 500 years made or unmade laws, the only place where laws were made in the Roman Empire.

我们有贝鲁特学校，这是贝鲁特的宗教学校，500 年来一直负责制定或废除法律，是罗马帝国唯一制定法律的地方。

We are Greco-Romans by culture.

从文化上来说，我们是希腊罗马人。

Let’s go back to the Greco-Roman world, away from 150 years of Arabization.

让我们回到希腊罗马世界，远离 150 年的阿拉伯化。

If you look at Lebanon, you realize that 150 years of Arabizing people had no effect.

如果你看看黎巴嫩，你就会发现 150 年的阿拉伯化并没有产生任何效果。

On the Greeks and the Maronites

关于希腊人和马龙派教徒

Initially, the Turks came in as the Byzantine Empire, and they were very upset that the Russian one called themselves caesars, “What do you mean caesar?

最初，土耳其人以拜占庭帝国的身份进来，他们对俄罗斯人称自己为凯撒感到非常不高兴，“你说凯撒是什么意思？

We are .

我们是。

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the sultan is the continuation of the Byzantine Empire.” There was that tension East-West.

苏丹是拜占庭帝国的延续。”东西方之间存在着紧张关系。

And this manifests itself through religion.

这通过宗教表现出来。

Let me explain it, what I saw.

让我解释一下，我所看到的。

The coastal Levant was monstrously Arabized except for Beirut, which was Latinized because of the language of Beirut.

除了贝鲁特以外，黎凡特沿海地区都被可怕地阿拉伯化了，贝鲁特因为贝鲁特的语言而被拉丁化。

And the people were horrified to see that they use Latin because there was a school of law, but the rest was Greek.

人们惊讶地发现他们使用拉丁语，因为有一所法学院，但其余的都是希腊语。

The countryside spoke Aramaic.

乡村里讲阿拉姆语。

If you see the religion schisms, they map to Aramaic speakers versus Greek speakers.

如果你看到宗教分裂，它们会映射到讲阿拉姆语的人和讲希腊语的人。

The Maronites were one of the lines of the first schism.

马龙派是第一次分裂的派别之一。

Earlier, of course, you have the Nestorians as a schism.

当然，早些时候，景教是一种分裂。

You look at the line of how people have the schism in Asian Minor, and you see that these schisms were entirely driven by ethnicity, like the English Protestant versus Irish Catholic.

你看看小亚细亚人民如何分裂的路线，你会发现这些分裂完全是由种族驱动的，就像英国新教徒与爱尔兰天主教徒一样。

If these English were Catholic, I bet you then the Irish would have been Protestant, definitely.

如果这些英国人是天主教徒，我敢打赌，那么爱尔兰人肯定会是新教徒。

That’s like what happened along these lines.

这就像沿着这些线索发生的事情。

Of course, the Byzantines were very suspicious of the West, and they saw Islam as a .

当然，拜占庭人对西方非常怀疑，他们将伊斯兰教视为一种。

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Effectively, it was not an unrealistic thought because if you look at what happened, there’s 500 years under the Ottomans.

实际上，这并不是一个不切实际的想法，因为如果你看看发生的事情，就会发现奥斯曼帝国统治了 500 年。

Syriac Orthodox, Armenian Orthodox, Greece State Orthodox, Romanian Orthodox — these parts are Orthodox.

叙利亚东正教、亚美尼亚东正教、希腊东正教、罗马尼亚东正教——这些部分都是东正教。

The idea, when you look at the world, the division East/West and Christianity/non-Christianity — at that time there were three blocks.

这个想法，当你看世界时，东方/西方和基督教/非基督教的划分 ——当时存在三个街区。

There were the French, those Westerners.

有法国人，也有西方人。

There were the East Meds.

还有东方医学。

And then there were the Easterners — Arabs, Persians — and that was how it was seen.

然后还有东方人——阿拉伯人、波斯人——人们就是这样看待的。

Of course, the people identify along these lines, and then progressively, when you had the heresy, people would go to Rome because “the enemy of my enemy.” So the Maronites — and Gibbon tells this story beautifully — how they came down to Tripoli to do a deal with the Franks, with a group of crusaders, to do a deal with Rome because they wanted to move away from that.

当然，人们沿着这些路线认同，然后逐渐地，当你有异端时，人们会去罗马，因为“我敌人的敌人”。因此，马龙派教徒——吉本精彩地讲述了这个故事——他们如何来到的黎波里，与一群十字军一起与法兰克人达成协议，与罗马达成协议，因为他们想摆脱这一点。

The tension is not a tension that is modern.

这种紧张不是现代的紧张。

It is a tension — the one between the Maronites and the Greek Orthodox — is a tension that has been there forever.

这是一种紧张关系——马龙派教徒和希腊东正教之间的紧张关系——是一种永远存在的紧张关系。

One more comment, since we’re talking about it.

由于我们正在谈论它，所以还有一条评论。

First, I didn’t know you know this stuff.

首先，我不知道你知道这些东西。

I’m honored that you’re interested in the same thing I’m interested in.

我很荣幸您对我感兴趣的事情感兴趣。

If you look at what happened also in the Levant, people fail to understand a few things, that you have Nestorians, basically the Syriacs, the Orthodox, and non-Chalcedonian.

如果你看看黎凡特发生的事情，人们无法理解一些事情，那就是有景教徒，基本上是叙利亚人、东正教和非迦克墩人。

If you look at these people, the Syriac speakers, who absolutely hated the Greeks, just like the Copts hated the Byzantines.

如果你看看这些说叙利亚语的人，他们绝对讨厌希腊人，就像科普特人讨厌拜占庭人一样。

People forget that before the Arabs conquered the Levant .

人们忘记了阿拉伯人征服黎凡特之前的情况。

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Actually they didn’t really conquer the Levant.

事实上他们并没有真正征服黎凡特。

They just went through the Levant, and it’s not interesting.

他们刚刚穿过黎凡特，没什么意思。

There’s olive oil and nothing else.

只有橄榄油，没有别的。

You had two generations of Persians in Lebanon.

黎巴嫩有两代波斯人。

The Persians came, and they brought with them Nestorians.

波斯人来了，他们也带来了景教徒。

Nestorians are similar to Maronites — different heresy — and they brought with them Zoroastrians, and then they left.

景教与马龙派类似——“不同的异端”——他们带来了琐罗亚斯德教，然后就离开了。

The Persians were kicked out by the Byzantines.

波斯人被拜占庭人驱逐了。

Those who stayed were Zoroastrians and Nestorians.

留下来的是琐罗亚斯德教和景教。

By some mysterious thing, you find Zoroastrianism, as a Shiite Islam, born in Lebanon and converting the Persians in the same place where these guys were brought in.

通过一些神秘的事情，你会发现琐罗亚斯德教，作为什叶派伊斯兰教，诞生于黎巴嫩，并在这些人被带进来的同一个地方改变了波斯人的信仰。

The Shiites were in Lebanon, though it seems to me that the population of Zoroastrians who came, because the Byzantine hated Zoroastrians and non-Chalcedonians, and they stayed, or at least the religion came in and there’s a big connection between Zoroastrianism and Shiite Islam.

什叶派在黎巴嫩，尽管在我看来，琐罗亚斯德教的人口来了，因为拜占庭人讨厌琐罗亚斯德教和非迦克墩教徒，所以他们留下来，或者至少宗教进来了，琐罗亚斯德教和什叶派伊斯兰教之间有很大的联系。

I read that, almost as your part of intellectual reconciliation, that the new element for your big vision of what Lebanon could have been and maybe will be, that you finally found a way of integrating the Maronites into your basic story, that you yourself are willing to accept and indeed embrace.

我读到，几乎作为你智力和解的一部分，你对黎巴嫩本可以成为、也许将会成为的宏伟愿景的新元素，你终于找到了一种将马龙派融入你的基本故事的方法，你自己愿意接受并确实拥抱。

Two things about the Maronites: The first one is I was convinced until about seven years ago that the Maronites were migrants who came to Lebanon from the East because the fact of it, their language, their liturgical language is not Aramaic, but Syriac, which is Eastern Aramaic, and that brand, that of course came.

关于马龙派教徒的两件事：第一件事是，直到大约七年前，我才确信马龙派教徒是从东方来到黎巴嫩的移民，因为事实上，他们的语言、他们的礼拜语言不是阿拉姆语，而是叙利亚语，即东阿拉姆语，而这个品牌，当然就来了。

But it turned out that, in fact, it’s only the religion.

但事实证明，这只是宗教而已。

The DNA is as local as it can be.

DNA 尽可能本地化。

The Maronites are the descendants of the Phoenicians.

马龙派教徒是腓尼基人的后裔。

So are the Shiites of Lebanon.

黎巴嫩的什叶派也是如此。

We Greek Orthodox and the Sunnis have a little more Greek or stuff like that.

我们希腊东正教和逊尼派有更多的希腊语或类似的东西。

When I realized that, then I realized that they were a part of us so it was already something.

当我意识到这一点时，我意识到他们是我们的一部分，所以这已经是一些东西了。

Second point, let’s talk about skin in the game.

第二点，我们来谈谈游戏中的皮肤。

To connect to this, as I was watching Donald Trump debate the other guys wearing suits .

与此相关的是，当我观看唐纳德·特朗普与其他穿着西装的人辩论时。

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I knew he was going to win.

我知道他会赢。

I was certain he was going to win.

我确信他会赢。

I couldn’t figure out why I was so convinced he was going to win, at least at that stage of the primary.

我不明白为什么我如此确信他会获胜，至少在初选的那个阶段是这样。

And it turned out, I figured it out and said, “Yes, people love .

事实证明，我想通了并说：“是的，人们爱。

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.”, then I had heard the day before the news that were effectively not that correct, that he lost more than a billion dollars of his own money.

”，然后我在前一天听到了实际上并不那么正确的消息，即他自己损失了超过十亿美元。

I thought about it.

我想了一下。

I said, “OK, is there anything more human than showing a scar, to say, ‘At least I’m real, and you guys are just like pencil-pushers,’ or whatever?” I thought about it, and I said that his skin in the game, exhibiting risk-taking, is effectively what elevates you over .

我说：“好吧，还有什么比展示伤疤更人性化的事情吗？说‘至少我是真实的，而你们就像推铅笔的人’之类的？”我想了想，我说他在游戏中的参与，表现出冒险精神，实际上是让你进步的原因。

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Traditionally, you exhibit a scar or have some kind of scar or some kind of sign of devastation coming from war.

传统上，你会表现出疤痕或某种疤痕或某种来自战争的破坏迹象。

Effectively, it didn’t hurt or harm him.

实际上，这并没有伤害或伤害他。

I was a practitioner coming from trading, the trader that lost a lot of money, at least it’s real.

我是一个从交易出来的从业者，一个亏了很多钱的交易者，至少是真实的。

It’s not a bad thing.

这并不是一件坏事。

So I realize immediately that, and then I thought about it.

所以我立刻意识到了这一点，然后我就开始思考这个问题。

I had trouble figuring out why is it that the Christian religion, we have that Trinity, which makes absolutely no sense to Muslims and makes no sense to anybody who’s not Christian.

我很难弄清楚为什么基督教有三位一体，这对穆斯林来说毫无意义，对任何非基督徒来说也毫无意义。

It makes so much sense to you if you are Christian.

如果你是基督徒，这对你来说很有意义。

Why is it that it makes so much sense to have a Trinity?

为什么三位一体如此有意义？

Then the Christ, is he God?

那么基督是神吗？

Well, he’s sort of like God, but he’s not God.

好吧，他有点像上帝，但他不是上帝。

Then you figure it out.

然后你就明白了。

If I go to the circus and I have a fellow walking on a tightrope with a parachute, I ask for my money back.

如果我去马戏团，看到一个带着降落伞在走钢丝的人，我会要求退还我的钱。

That’s not how it works.

事情不是这样的。

The Christ was sufficiently man to have skin in the game and sufficiently God to be God, so it worked.

基督足够是人，可以参与其中，也足够是神，所以它起作用了。

For that, we had to concoct a story that appears to be absurd, but is necessary.

为此，我们不得不编造一个看似荒唐却又必要的故事。

It kept coming back to the Trinity, no matter what they tried.

无论他们如何尝试，它总是回到三位一体。

The last Byzantine outpost, and they’d come and invade us.

最后的拜占庭前哨，他们会来入侵我们。

So maybe you want to do some psychology on that.

所以也许你想对此做一些心理学研究。

But Gibran has never been in high standing in my .

但纪伯伦在我的心中从来没有享有很高的地位。

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A lot of people are in high standing from the area, but not Gibran.

该地区有很多地位很高的人，但纪伯伦却不是。

On learning to be meaningful

论学习要有意义

Incidentally, to go back to the idea of being orthodox, theosis is a way for us humans to rise above our condition as human, and it’s given to us openness, this equal opportunity for anyone.

顺便说一句，回到正统的观念，神论是我们人类超越人类处境的一种方式，它赋予我们开放性，为任何人提供平等的机会。

If you consider that we are imperfect, and the way you can arise, this sense of honor, by doing duties or self-sacrifice, then you have a lot of risk in the game.

如果你认为我们是不完美的，而你可以通过履行职责或自我牺牲来产生这种荣誉感，那么你在游戏中就有很大的风险。

It’s taking risks for the sake of becoming more human.

为了变得更加人性化，它正在冒险。

Like Christ.

就像基督一样。

He took risks and he suffered.

他承担了风险，也遭受了痛苦。

Of course, it was a bad outcome, but you don’t have to go that far.

当然，这是一个糟糕的结果，但你不必走那么远。

That was the idea.

这就是我的想法。

I didn’t talk about theosis.

我没有谈论神论。

I just mentioned it in one footnote.

我刚刚在一个脚注中提到了这一点。

It’s like we understand that we’re not in here to eat mozzarella and go to Tuscany.

就好像我们知道我们来这里不是为了吃马苏里拉奶酪或去托斯卡纳。

We’re not in here to accumulate money.

我们来这里不是为了积累金钱。

We’re in here mostly to sacrifice, to do something.

我们来这里主要是为了牺牲，做点什么。

The way you do it is by taking risks.

你这样做的方式就是冒险。

Some people take risks and some people labor in the fields.

有些人冒险，有些人在田里劳作。

You have the option of doing either one or the other.

您可以选择执行其中一项或另一项。

But my point is you should never have someone rise in society if he or she is not taking risks for the sake of others, period.

但我的观点是，如果一个人不为了他人而冒险，那么你就不应该让他或她在社会中崛起。

That’s one rule.

这是一条规则。

We understand that we’re not in here to eat mozzarella and go to Tuscany.

我们知道我们来这里不是为了吃马苏里拉奶酪然后去托斯卡纳。

We’re not in here to accumulate money.

我们来这里不是为了积累金钱。

We’re in here mostly to sacrifice, to do something.

我们来这里主要是为了牺牲，做点什么。

The way you do it is by taking risks.

你做到这一点的方法就是冒险。

The second one, you should never be a public intellectual if any statement you make doesn’t entail risk-taking.

第二，如果你发表的任何言论不涉及冒险，那么你永远不应该成为公共知识分子。

In other words, you should never have rewards without any risk.

换句话说，你永远不应该在没有风险的情况下获得回报。

That’s the thing.

就是这样。

Then you can accept inequality if the person who’s unequal is taking risks because that would make things rotate.

如果不平等的人愿意冒险，那么你就可以接受不平等，因为这会让事情发生变化。

For example, if someone becomes a billionaire, it’s fine.

例如，如果有人成为亿万富翁，那很好。

It’s unequal, but they’ve got to keep taking risks.

这是不平等的，但他们必须继续承担风险。

You cannot be locked into a frozen upper-class condition, and then use your situation to use the government to prop you up there.

你不能被困在一个冻结的上层阶级环境中，然后利用你的处境来利用政府来支持你。

And that’s the good thing about America is the rotation that you have.

美国的好处就是可以轮换。

The foundation of Judaism was law, but it was minuscule, it was for a tribe.

犹太教的基础是法律，但它是微不足道的，它是针对一个部落的。

It was law: “you should not go and do this or that.” Then in Islam, the same word, din , in Arabic means law in Hebrew, but not in Syriac, which is a Semitic language used by Christians, where they use two different words, one nomos, law, and one, din, for religion.

这是法律：“你不应该去做这做那。”然后在伊斯兰教中，同一个词 din 在阿拉伯语中表示希伯来语中的法律，但在叙利亚语中则不然，叙利亚语是基督徒使用的闪族语言，他们使用两个不同的词，一个是 nomos，即法律，另一个是 din，表示宗教。

Why is it so?

为什么会这样呢？

Islam and Judaism are laws.

伊斯兰教和犹太教是法律。

It’s law — there’s no distinction between holy and profane — whereas Christianity is not law.

它是法律——“神圣与世俗之间没有区别”——而基督教不是法律。

Why isn’t it law?

为什么不是法律？

A simple reason — you remember the Christ said what is for Caesar and is not for Caesar?

一个简单的理由——你还记得基督说过什么是凯撒的，什么不是凯撒吗？

It’s because the Romans had the laws.

这是因为罗马人有法律。

You’re not going to bring the law because they already have the law, and very sophisticated law at that, the Romans.

你不会提起法律，因为他们已经有了法律，而且是非常复杂的法律，罗马人。

With Christianity was born the separation of church and state.

随着基督教的诞生，政教分离。

It’s secular, so it’s effectively a secular religion that says that when you go home, you do whatever you want.

它是世俗的，所以它实际上是一种世俗宗教，它说当你回家时，你可以做任何你想做的事。

Of course, Christianity, they got to have theocracies, a few, but it was all cosmetic.

当然，基督教，他们必须有神权政治，有一些，但这都是表面的。

For example, when you have the codes, whether Theodosius or Justinian Code — you take Justinian’s code, you look at it.

例如，当你有法典时，无论是《狄奥多西法典》还是《查士丁尼法典》——你都拿查士丁尼法典来查看它。

You see, just cosmetically, he said you were blessed by the grace of God , et cetera — two pages.

你看，只是表面上看，他说你受到了上帝的恩典，等等——整整两页。

So people are very confused when they talk about religion.

所以人们一谈到宗教就很困惑。

They’re comparing things that are not the same.

他们正在比较不同的事物。

Effectively, when I say that I’m Christian, it’s very different from saying I am something else.

实际上，当我说我是基督徒时，这与说我是其他人有很大不同。

The same weakness that I see sometimes describe ethnicity.

我有时看到的同样的弱点也描述了种族。

Being Greek Orthodox is more ethnicity than something else, or being Serbian versus Croatian.

作为希腊东正教徒比其他东西更具有种族性，或者作为塞尔维亚人与克罗地亚人。

Sometimes religion becomes an identity, sometimes law, sometimes very universal.

有时宗教成为一种身份，有时成为法律，有时非常普遍。

And sometimes you have pagan tendencies hidden under some kind of Taqiya that you see in the north, you have the monastic religions.

有时你在北方看到的某种塔基亚下隐藏着异教倾向，你有修道院宗教。

Comparing religions naively is silly, it’s heuristic and leads to things like saying, “Well, he has a right to exercise his faith.”

天真地比较宗教是愚蠢的，它是启发式的，会导致诸如“嗯，他有权行使他的信仰”之类的说法。

Some faiths should not have the right to be exercised, like Salafis or extreme jihadism because they’re not religions.

有些信仰不应该有行使的权利，例如萨拉菲派或极端圣战主义，因为它们不是宗教。

They’re a legal system.

他们是一个法律体系。

They’re like a political party that wants to ban all other political parties.

他们就像一个想要禁止所有其他政党的政党。

If you go with that, you’re repeating certain mistakes.

如果你这样做，你就会重复某些错误。

This planet doesn’t have a third category of people who have both.

这个星球上没有第三类人同时拥有这两者。

So you have linguists who absolutely don’t know what the fu — sorry, what the hell they’re talking about when they talk about religion.

所以，语言学家完全不知道他们在谈论宗教时到底在说什么。抱歉，他们到底在说什么。

I noticed in the description of categorization of languages, linguists are not fluent in the languages they’re categorizing, and it makes a huge difference.

我注意到在语言分类的描述中，语言学家对他们所分类的语言并不流利，这产生了巨大的差异。

I think that Levantine is close to Aramaic, but linguists don’t accept it because they have their metrics that don’t work.

我认为黎凡特语与阿拉姆语很接近，但语言学家不接受它，因为他们的衡量标准不起作用。

If you use a statistical method, then you realize that it’s Aramaic.

如果您使用统计方法，那么您就会意识到它是阿拉姆语。

Or, if you use practice, you realize that.

或者，如果你进行练习，你就会意识到这一点。

On things fragile and antifragile

关于脆弱和反脆弱的事物

A guy comes in, very bloodthirsty, comes to you, and you tell him, “Listen, what do you want?

一个家伙进来了，非常嗜血，来到你身边，你告诉他，“听着，你想要什么？

You kill us all, you get nothing.

你杀了我们所有人，你什么也得不到。

Land is not interesting.

土地并不有趣。

What are you going to get?

你会得到什么？

We’ll give you 5 percent.

我们会给你百分之五。

What do you want, 5 percent of something or 100 percent of nothing?”

你想要什么，5%的东西还是100%什么都没有？”

That’s how the Phoenicians operated.

这就是腓尼基人的运作方式。

Someone would come in.

有人会进来。

They had a hiccup with Alexander, one pound higher than a hiccup with Alexander.

他们和亚历山大打嗝，比和亚历山大打嗝重一磅。

You guys here, you don’t understand.

你们这里的人，你们不明白。

I live in New York City, so I have two options.

我住在纽约市，所以我有两个选择。

One, pay the state — with all of this now, it’s going to go 50-some percent taxes — and you almost get nothing.

第一，向国家纳税 ——现在，要缴纳百分之五十左右的税费——而你几乎什么也得不到。

Or, you can go to mafia now and give them 2 percent, and you get protection.

或者，你现在就可以去找黑手党，给他们 2%，你就能得到保护。

You get all the things that you want done for 2 percent.

只需 2%，您就可以完成所有您想做的事情。

That’s exactly what happened.

这正是发生的事情。

Think about the defense budget if it were run by the mafia.

想想如果国防预算是由黑手党管理的话。

The guy would come in, and the system at the time was the system of — when you say “conquer,” the imperial methods everywhere, including the Ottomans, before them the Romans, before them the Seleucids and the Ptolemies.

那家伙进来了，当时的制度是“征服”的制度，到处都有帝国的方法，包括奥斯曼帝国，在他们之前是罗马人，在他们之前是塞琉古王朝和托勒密王朝。

The Ptolemies had more integration.

托勒密王朝有更多的融合。

The whole technique was, you come in .

整个技巧就是，你进来。

.

。

.

。

And remember that government role, the GDP was, at the turn of the century in France, 5 percent, OK, last century.

请记住，政府的角色，在世纪之交的法国，GDP 是上个世纪的 5%。

So having been, you’re not part of anything, you’re just paying taxes to someone you’ll never see — that was the thing.

所以，你不再是任何事物的一部分，你只是在向一个你永远不会见到的人纳税 ——事情就是这样。

The integration usually was through commerce, not through military conquest.

一体化通常是通过商业而非军事征服进行的。

The idea of Singapore, someone invaded — let’s say Malaysia decides to take over Singapore.

新加坡的想法是，有人入侵了——假设马来西亚决定接管新加坡。

What are they going to do with that?

他们打算用它做什么？

They’ve got nothing.

他们一无所有。

It’s much better for you to go to Singapore, tell them, “We want 2 percent.” Or “We want 10 percent.” And then they will break it down to 3 percent.

你最好去新加坡，告诉他们，“我们想要 2%。”或者“我们想要 10%。”然后他们会将其分解为 3%。

Two sets of countries on the right, one on the left.

右边有两组国家，左边一组。

They said the one that has the same government, same families actually — people here in this town, at the Wilson Center.

他们说，实际上是拥有相同政府、相同家庭的人——在这个镇上，在威尔逊中心。

I said that these guys have things backward.

我说这些人的东西落后了。

The countries on the right were Syria and Saudi Arabia.

右边的国家是叙利亚和沙特阿拉伯。

Now, we’re, so far, waiting for a second shoe to drop.

现在，到目前为止，我们正在等待第二只鞋落地。

The other one was Italy.

另一个是意大利。

Last time I checked, Italy was still standing, and the mozzarella was excellent.

上次我检查时，意大利仍然屹立不倒，而且马苏里拉奶酪很棒。

The idea of countries that have too much stability become weaker, particularly if it’s propped up, sort of like companies.

过于稳定的国家的理念会变得更弱，特别是如果它像公司一样得到支撑的话。

You see companies that go bust, you get companies that have zero volatility, compressed volatility.

你会看到公司破产，你会看到波动性为零、波动性被压缩的公司。

Many of them really should have a little volatility, but some of them would be sitting on dynamite.

其中许多确实应该有一点波动，但其中一些会坐在炸药上。

When I looked at countries, we looked at countries that are in the Eastern bloc.

当我研究国家时，我们研究的是东方集团的国家。

These countries had effectively two properties.

这些国家实际上拥有两个财产。

One, they took a lot of heat during that period.

第一，他们在那段时期吸收了很多热量。

Post-Soviet phase was very, very, very rough.

后苏联阶段非常非常艰难。

All of them — Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Romania — all of them, in fact, improved through that phase.

所有这些国家——“亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、罗马尼亚”——事实上，所有这些国家都在这一阶段取得了进步。

Currently, it makes me believe that they could take another economic crisis, any crisis, and survive.

目前，这让我相信他们可以承受另一场经济危机，任何危机，并生存下来。

They have proved the ability to survive.

他们已经证明了生存的能力。

I’m not sure France can manage tomorrow the same disruption.

我不确定法国能否应对明天同样的混乱。

All of them — Armenia, Georgia, Russia, Romania — all of them, in fact, improved through the phase.

所有这些国家——“亚美尼亚、格鲁吉亚、俄罗斯、罗马尼亚”——事实上，所有这些国家都在这个阶段取得了进步。

Currently, it makes me believe that they could take another economic crisis, any crisis, and survive.

目前，这让我相信他们可以承受另一场经济危机，任何危机，并生存下来。

They have proved the ability to survive.

他们已经证明了生存的能力。

I’m not sure France can manage tomorrow the same disruption.

我不确定法国能否应对明天同样的混乱。

OK, but from my feeling that what you see, the Turks are very happy because they got washing machine, they got stuff.

好吧，但从我的感觉来看，土耳其人非常高兴，因为他们有了洗衣机，他们得到了东西。

They attribute it to Erdoğan, so Erdoğan is associated with growth, not so much with religion.

他们将其归因于埃尔多安，因此埃尔多安与增长联系在一起，而不是与宗教联系在一起。

In Lebanon today, every time someone sneezes in downtown Beirut, people are afraid of a civil war.

今天在黎巴嫩，每当有人在贝鲁特市中心打喷嚏，人们就会担心发生内战。

But they don’t realize that everyone is up to here in real estate.

但他们没有意识到每个人都在房地产领域做到了这一点。

Nobody has any interest in waging war.

没有人有兴趣发动战争。

It’s not like, say, 1975, or 1973.

这不像 1975 年或 1973 年。

One of them went to Syria to vote for Assad and couldn’t come back, just to tell you how devoted he is.

其中一人前往叙利亚投票给阿萨德，但无法回来，只是为了告诉你他有多么忠诚。

So what I do is, I talk to him to know what’s going on, he calls his brothers, his siblings.

所以我所做的就是，我和他交谈以了解发生了什么事，他打电话给他的兄弟，他的兄弟姐妹。

He’s violently Sunni.

他是一个极端的逊尼派。

Why?

为什么？

He said that he’s religious Sunni.

他说他是逊尼派宗教徒。

He said because at least for him, Assad represents stability.

他说，因为至少对他来说，阿萨德代表着稳定。

The fact that for a lot of Syrians, you got to look at Syria from Syria, not Syria from Saudi Arabian–financed lobbies here, OK?

事实上，对于很多叙利亚人来说，你必须从叙利亚看叙利亚，而不是从沙特阿拉伯资助的游说团体看叙利亚，好吗？

You get a different story.

你会得到一个不同的故事。

People want stability.

人们想要稳定。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

One lesson I learned from Syria, that he’s complaining.

我从叙利亚学到的一个教训是，他在抱怨。

He said, “You know, cellphones, I go here in Lebanon.

他说：“你知道，手机，我去黎巴嫩。

This guy’s selling for $200, this guy, $220, $240.” He said, “Syria’s perfect.

这个人的售价是 200 美元，这个人是 220 美元，240 美元。”他说：“叙利亚是完美的。

Same price everywhere.”

到处都是一样的价格。”

Let me tell you, the Ba’aths have indoctrinated people to the point of maybe no return.

让我告诉你，复兴党对人们的洗脑已经到了可能无法挽回的地步。

People understand that Assad is not a god, but I bet you a lot of Iraqis would like Saddam to come back after what they saw.

人们知道阿萨德不是神，但我敢打赌，很多伊拉克人在看到这一切后都希望萨达姆回来。

The idea that they all have regarded as saying — if you were on the ground, you don’t have this theoretical thing.

他们都认为这个想法是在说：“如果你在地面上，你就不会拥有这种理论上的东西。”

“This guy is an asshole.” OK, fine.

“这家伙是个混蛋。”好吧，好吧。

You’ve got to realize what scissors.

你必须明白什么是剪刀。

You got to look at both sides of the scissors.

你必须看看剪刀的两面。

That when you have civil war you have two groups fighting, so you take the least asshole becomes someone good in your eyes, but you’re only analyzing one portion.

当你发生内战时，你有两个群体在战斗，所以你把最不混蛋的人变成了你眼中的好人，但你只分析了一部分。

Assad, his father blew up my house.

阿萨德，他的父亲炸毁了我的房子。

My grandfather was a member of parliament, and voted for pro-Israeli candidate Gemayel, and he came in and blew up our house.

我的祖父是一名议会议员，他投票支持亲以色列候选人杰马耶勒，他进来炸毁了我们的房子。

So I have a hatred for Assad’s family, but at the same time I just realize I have a bigger hatred for the jihadis and for the clients of Obama.

所以我对阿萨德的家人有仇恨，但同时我也意识到我对圣战分子和奥巴马的客户有更大的仇恨。

This is how we can analyze it, comparatively, not naively like one-sided.

我们可以这样来分析，比较一下，而不是天真地片面地分析。

On wisdom

论智慧

The problem, that it was destroyed by Saudi Arabian funding.

问题是它被沙特阿拉伯的资助摧毁了。

What can we learn from them is how your religion can be destroyed without anybody noticing.

我们可以从他们身上学到的是，你们的宗教是如何在没有人注意到的情况下被摧毁的。

The number of Sufis —take Tripoli in Lebanon, it was Sufi.

苏菲派的数量——以黎巴嫩的黎波里为例，就是苏菲派。

Why did it become non-Sufi?

为什么它变成非苏菲派？

Because of funding from Saudi Arabia — you indoctrinate two generations, and that’s it.

由于沙特阿拉伯的资助 ——你向两代人灌输了思想，仅此而已。

Also, I find inverse role models, people you don’t want to be like when you grow up.

此外，我还发现了逆向榜样，即那些你长大后不想成为的人。

You pick someone and you go with it.

你选择一个人，然后就跟着他走。

You have an instinct to know what you don’t want to look like.

你有一种本能，知道自己不想要什么样子。

Look at what they’ve done, what they do, and then you counter-imitate.

看看他们做了什么，他们做了什么，然后你反模仿。

You do a reverse imitation, and it works.

你进行反向模仿，就会起作用。

I tried, but the problem is nobody fights with me anymore.

我尝试过，但问题是没有人再跟我打架了。

I tried to fight with a fellow who was .

我试图与一个这样的人打架。

.

。

.

。

You have the problem with the pseudo expert .

您遇到了伪专家的问题。

.

。

.

。

My worst are microeconomists because you can macro-bullshit more easily than they micro-bullshit.

我最糟糕的是微观经济学家，因为宏观的废话比微观的废话更容易。

There’s no attachment, there’s no feedback, so I tried to get into some fights with macro people.

没有执着，没有反馈，所以我试图与宏观的人进行一些斗争。

I tried to get in a fight with an Indian fellow who’s repeating that story that we’re refusing expertise at all.

我试图与一位印度人打架，他重复了我们根本拒绝专业知识的故事。

Remember that cartoon?

还记得那部动画片吗？

They’re imitating that cartoon in The New Yorker that shows people with the sign that they don’t need the expertise of the pilot.

他们正在模仿《纽约客》上的那幅漫画，向人们展示他们不需要飞行员的专业知识。

You cannot compare a macroeconomist to a pilot.

你不能将宏观经济学家与飞行员进行比较。

There are two classes of experts.

有两类专家。

Belly dancers are experts at belly dancing.

肚皮舞者是肚皮舞的专家。

The people who steal radios from cars are experts at stealing radios from cars.

从汽车上偷收音机的人是从汽车上偷收音机的专家。

Dentists are experts at dentistry.

牙医是牙科领域的专家。

I’m not sure macroeconomists know anything about anything.

我不确定宏观经济学家是否了解任何事情。

Because there’s no feedback, so we don’t know.

因为没有反馈，所以我们不知道。

Maybe they know.

也许他们知道。

Policymakers or people in the State Department, I’m not sure they know anything because there’s no feedback.

政策制定者或国务院人员，我不确定他们是否知道任何事情，因为没有反馈。

We definitely know that a carpenter is an expert at carpentry, you see?

我们肯定知道木匠是木工方面的专家，你明白吗？

I tried to have a Twitter fight with a fellow because usually Twitter fights, number one, makes you look forward to sitting down and opening your computer.

我试图和一个朋友在推特上打架，因为通常推特上的打架，第一，会让你期待坐下来打开你的电脑。

And it kills time like nothing.

这简直就是消磨时间。

But no one will engage me any more.

但没有人会再和我交往了。

I tried to have a Twitter fight with a fellow because usually Twitter fights, number one, makes you look forward when sitting down and opening your computer.

我试图和一个朋友在推特上打架，因为通常推特上的打架，第一，会让你在坐下来打开电脑时有所期待。

And it kills time like nothing.

这简直就是消磨时间。

But no one will engage me any more.

但没有人会再和我交往了。

On cryptocurrencies and AI

关于加密货币和人工智能

And they are scared of it, believe me.

相信我，他们害怕它。

That’s one.

这是一个。

Sorry if I used the Latin.

抱歉，如果我用了拉丁语。

Of course, over time, you find you developed.

当然，随着时间的推移，你会发现自己有所进步。

So long as you don’t have a lot of transactions on one single model.

只要您在一种模型上没有大量交易即可。

Then you figure out if it doesn’t work, that someone will bring something with a counter — a trick that will have other flaws.

然后你就会发现，如果它不起作用，有人会带来一些带有计数器的东西——这个技巧还会有其他缺陷。

So there will be barriers.

所以会有障碍。

If you take earlier, the blockchain would resemble Phoenician model trading: “I’ll call your mother if you don’t do the merchandise.”

如果你看得更早，区块链就像腓尼基模型交易：“如果你不做商品，我会给你妈妈打电话。”

The whole idea, the minute the whole concept of a currency that’s triggered .

整个想法，即货币的整个概念被触发的那一刻。

.

。

.

。

In other words, we have now Visa payments that are triggered by receipt of merchandise, or coupled with the receipt of merchandise, is a brilliant idea.

换句话说，我们现在通过收到商品触发 Visa 付款，或者与收到商品一起触发，这是一个绝妙的主意。

This is why, at some point, we will discover the flaws of blockchain.

这就是为什么，在某个时候，我们会发现区块链的缺陷。

There are plenty of flaws, of course, but we don’t know all of them.

当然，存在很多缺陷，但我们并不知道所有缺陷。

It behaves differently from the sum of birds, like markets behave differently from individuals.

它的行为不同于鸟类的总和，就像市场的行为不同于个体一样。

When you have flocks of drones, typically, it’s one computer running all these drones.

当您拥有成群的无人机时，通常是由一台计算机运行所有这些无人机。

If one computer ran all the self-driving cars, that may work, but then someone could take over the world that way.

如果一台计算机运行所有自动驾驶汽车，这可能可行，但随后有人可以通过这种方式接管世界。

“I own the world.”

“我拥有世界。”

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I have no idea.

我不知道。

I think it’s a great idea to have self-driving cars if someone in the car is responsible if there’s an accident.

我认为拥有自动驾驶汽车是个好主意，如果发生事故，车内有人要承担责任。

Someone I can sue or someone I can blame if something .

我可以起诉的人，或者如果有什么事情我可以责怪的人。

.

。

.

。

someone who is in the vehicle.

车内的人。

Not saying your self-computer, not some anonymous person.

不是说你自己的电脑，也不是某个匿名者。

On social media

在社交媒体上

Now, it so happens that at no point in history, except during the postwar period, did people receive news without being conveyors of news.

现在，碰巧的是，除了战后时期之外，历史上任何时候，人们接收新闻时都不是新闻的传播者。

That nuclear family, where people — pop, mom, 2.2 kids, one dog — are watching TV, receiving information and not transmitting.

在这个核心家庭中，人们（爸爸、妈妈、2.2 个孩子、一只狗）正在看电视，接收信息而不是传输信息。

The solitude of big city blocks — that was the idea.

大城市街区的孤独——这就是这个想法。

Well, it’s gone because traditionally, you get the news and you purvey the news.

好吧，它已经消失了，因为传统上，你得到新闻并传播新闻。

So you’re a recipient and a purveyor, with a little bit of alteration in the process.

所以你是一个接收者和一个提供者，在这个过程中需要做一些改变。

There, we get back to the social media.

在那里，我们回到社交媒体。

I knew very quickly to learn to identify that there was a false alert yesterday in Saudi Arabia, as if there was a coup or something.

我很快就知道要学会辨别昨天沙特阿拉伯发生了误报，好像发生了政变什么的。

You can figure out that there are some people you can trust, others you can’t trust.

你可以发现有些人你可以信任，有些人你不能信任。

Those you can’t trust, you quickly identify them — those who cry wolf all the time.

那些你不能信任的人，你很快就能认出他们——那些总是喊狼来了的人。

Social media is bringing us back to a naturalistic environment because, say, in Athens, what was the newsroom?

社交媒体正在将我们带回自然主义环境，因为，比如说，在雅典，新闻编辑室是什么？

The newsroom was the barbershop — you go in, you give information, and you take information.

新闻编辑室就是理发店——你进去，提供信息，然后获取信息。

Or a fish market — you go in, you get fish, you get information and give information.

或者鱼市 ——你进去，你可以买到鱼，你可以获取信息并提供信息。

And funerals, where you go in and chat, fake like you’re crying, and then you’re getting all the gossip.

还有葬礼，你进去聊天，假装你在哭，然后你就会听到所有的八卦。

We’re gossip machines.

我们是八卦机器。

Social media is great in that respect.

社交媒体在这方面很棒。

I love it.

我喜欢它。

I don’t know if you were told.

我不知道你是否被告知。

I refused to have a book tour.

我拒绝举办巡回售书活动。

I refused to give media interviews.

我拒绝接受媒体采访。

You asked at least.

至少你问过。

I gave one by accident.

我不小心给了一个。

Send my book to newspapers.

把我的书寄给报纸。

Random House said, “What?!” I said, “OK, fine, other authors.

兰登书屋说：“什么？！”我说：“好吧，好吧，其他作者。

It’s OK.” They agreed, although they cheated, I think, by sending some people the book.

没关系。”他们同意了，尽管我认为他们作弊了，把书寄给了一些人。

Social media is bringing us back to a naturalistic environment because, say, in Athens, what was the newsroom?

社交媒体正在将我们带回自然主义环境，因为，比如说，在雅典，新闻编辑室是什么？

The newsroom was the barbershop — you go in, you give information, and you take information.

新闻编辑室就是理发店——你进去，提供信息，然后获取信息。

Or a fish market — you go in, you get fish, you get information and give information.

或者鱼市 ——你进去，你可以买到鱼，你可以获取信息并提供信息。

And funerals, where you go in and chat, fake like you’re crying, and then you’re getting all the gossip.

还有葬礼，你进去聊天，假装你在哭，然后你就会听到所有的八卦。

We’re gossip machines.

我们是八卦机器。

Social media is great in that respect.

社交媒体在这方面很棒。

I love it.

我喜欢它。

So there was no book review in US, my book, on social media.

所以在美国，我的书在社交媒体上没有书评。

And it opened number 12 on best-seller list.

并在畅销书排行榜上名列第12位。

It tells you that you don’t need the New York Times to exist as an author, that Twitter is sufficient, Twitter and some Facebook.

它告诉你，你不需要《纽约时报》来作为作家而存在，Twitter 就足够了，Twitter 和一些 Facebook。

That’s it.

就是这样。

On the Nassim Nicholas Taleb production function

关于纳西姆·尼古拉斯·塔勒布生产函数

One day, I went with someone to dinner.

有一天，我和一个人去吃饭。

I wanted go to a taverna, and, “Oh, no. We’ve got to go to a better restaurant.” So I ended up having a meal, which you have to realize the look of a meal in a three-star Michelin restaurant.

我想去一家小酒馆，然后，“哦，不。我们必须去一家更好的餐馆。”所以我最后吃了一顿饭，你必须意识到在米其林三星级餐厅吃饭的样子。

We sit down.

我们坐下来。

There’s farming people, microscopic organs.

有农民，有微观器官。

It’s work, we’re doing work.

这是工作，我们正在做工作。

You’re concentrating, afraid, biting too much, and you get all this sophistication for nothing.

你集中注意力，害怕，咬得太多，而你却白白获得了所有这些复杂的东西。

Then I realize that as people get rich, they get controlled by the preferences, they’re controlled by the outside.

然后我意识到，当人们变得富有时，他们就会受到偏好的控制，他们会受到外界的控制。

It was $200 a person.

一个人200美元。

I said, “OK, I’d rather pay $200 for a pizza and would pay $6.95 for the same meal except that by social pressure.” This is how we use controlling preferences.

我说：“好吧，我宁愿花 200 美元买一份披萨，也愿意花 6.95 美元吃同样的一顿饭，除非受到社会压力。”这就是我们使用控制偏好的方式。

It’s the skin in the game.

这是游戏中的皮肤。

You discover that your preferences are .

您发现您的偏好是。

.

。

.

。

People are happier in small quarters.

人们在狭小的空间里会更快乐。

You have neighbors around you and narrow streets.

你周围有邻居和狭窄的街道。

I’d rather eat with someone else a sandwich, provided it’s good bread — not this old bread — than eat at a fancy restaurant.

我宁愿和别人一起吃三明治，只要是好面包 ——而不是这个旧面包 ——也不愿在高档餐厅吃饭。

It’s the same thing I discovered little by little.

这和我一点一点发现的事情是一样的。

Even from a hedonic standpoint, sophistication is actually a burden.

即使从享乐的角度来看，复杂实际上也是一种负担。

Aside from that, there is something also that, from the beginning, you realize that hedonism — that pursuit of pleasure for pleasure’s sake — there’s something about it that gives me anxiety.

除此之外，还有一件事是，从一开始你就意识到享乐主义 ——“为了快乐而追求快​​乐”——其中有一些东西让我感到焦虑。

On the other hand, doing something productive — not productive in the sense of virtual signaling, but something that fits a sense of honor — you feel good.

另一方面，做一些富有成效的事情——“不是虚拟信号意义上的富有成效，而是符合荣誉感的事情”——“你会感觉很好。”

He said he was going to be put to death.

他说他将被处死。

As they woke him up and were taking him to the execution place, he decided to live the last few minutes of his life with intensity.

当他们叫醒他并把他带到刑场时，他决定认真地度过生命的最后几分钟。

He devoured life, it was so pleasurable, and promised himself, if he survives, to enjoy every minute of life the same way.

他吞噬了生命，那是多么令人愉悦，他向自己保证，如果他活下来，也要以同样的方式享受生命的每一分钟。

And he survived.

他活了下来。

In fact, it was a simulacrum of an execution, and Dostoyevsky .

事实上，这是死刑和陀思妥耶夫斯基的模拟。

.

。

.

。

effectively that says the guy survived.

这实际上表明那家伙活了下来。

The lesson was he no longer did that.

教训是他不再这样做了。

It was about the preferences of the moment.

这是关于当时的偏好。

He couldn’t carry on later.

后来他就无法继续下去了。

He forgot about the episode.

他忘记了那一集。

That marked me from Dostoyevsky when I was a kid, and then became obsessed with Dostoyevsky.

当我还是个孩子的时候，这让我想起了陀思妥耶夫斯基，然后就迷上了陀思妥耶夫斯基。

The math is — I like it.

数学是 — 我喜欢它。

People tell me that, as people age, they like math less and math is a young man’s game.

人们告诉我，随着年龄的增长，他们越来越不喜欢数学，数学是年轻人的游戏。

Yes, it’s more and more enjoyable.

是的，越来越愉快了。

I do math.

我做数学。

Mostly, there’s a Twitter math that I’m part of.

大多数情况下，我参与了 Twitter 数学计算。

So there’s always something to solve.

所以总有一些事情需要解决。

Usually, really, that’s totally unpredictable.

通常，确实，这是完全不可预测的。

It takes between one minute and one day to solve one problem.

解决一个问题需要一分钟到一天的时间。

You don’t know.

你不知道。

Then this thing comes in, and then I stop.

然后这个东西进来了，然后我就停下来了。

Read as much as you can, and try to get the lowest possible passing grades you can at school.

尽可能多地阅读，并尝试在学校获得尽可能低的及格分数。

I remember the stuff I read by myself, that I was driven.

我记得我自己读过的东西，我被驱使着。

I don’t remember stuff that was given to me at school.

我不记得学校给我的东西。

It’s an allocation of time.

这是时间的分配。

I discovered that I wanted to be a writer as a kid.

我发现我小时候想成为一名作家。

I realized to have an edge as a writer, you can’t really know what people know.

我意识到作为一名作家有一个优势，你不可能真正知道人们知道什么。

You’ve got to know a lot of stuff that they don’t know.

你必须知道很多他们不知道的事情。

I started reading books voraciously, and also read books that, with some instinct, that would be helpful 20 years from now.

我开始如饥似渴地读书，也读了一些本能地认为对 20 年后有用的书。

Therefore, it’s not the latest nonfiction best seller.

因此，它不是最新的非小说类畅销书。

So I read a lot of stuff.

所以我读了很多东西。

And I think that I would recommend doing the same.

我认为我会建议这样做。

Read as much as you can, and try to get the lowest possible passing grades you can at school.

尽可能多地阅读，并尝试在学校获得尽可能低的及格分数。

Don’t study stuff like history because it’s going to be revised.

不要研究历史之类的东西，因为它会被修改。

Geography, history, all these.

地理、历史，所有这些。

For instance, chemistry or stuff like that.

例如，化学或类似的东西。

Math is, I think, probably the only thing you can pick up at school that’s useful.

我认为数学可能是你在学校能学到的唯一有用的东西。