Celebrating Marginal Revolution's 20th Anniversary (Ep. 187 - BONUS)

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

Welcome to a special episode of Conversations with Tyler.

欢迎收看《与泰勒对话》特别节目。

My name is Jeff Holmes, and I’m here in my capacity as a producer of Conversations with Tyler, but I’m here in another capacity as well, as a reader of Marginal Revolution, the economics blog that Alex Tabarrok and Tyler Cowen started in August of 2003.

我叫杰夫·霍姆斯，我以《与泰勒对话》的制作人身份来到这里，但我也以另一个身份来到这里，作为《边际革命》的读者，这是亚历克斯·塔巴罗克和泰勒·考恩于 2003 年 8 月创办的经济学博客。

Thanks.

谢谢。

Great to be here.

很高兴来到这里。

Tyler, welcome.

泰勒，欢迎。

Thank you for all the great work, Jeff.

谢谢你所做的一切出色的工作，杰夫。

In addition to the co-founders and writers of Marginal Revolution, we’re joined by two other long-time readers of the blog.

除了《边际革命》的联合创始人和作者之外，我们还有该博客的另外两位长期读者。

First, Ben Casnocha.

首先是本·卡斯诺查。

Ben is an author, writer, and investor.

本是一位作家、作家和投资者。

He’s founded and run several businesses, blogged, written best-selling books, and is the co-founder and partner of Village Global, which invests in early-stage start-ups.

他创立并经营多家企业，撰写博客，撰写畅销书，并且是 Village Global 的联合创始人和合伙人，该公司投资于早期初创企业。

Ben, welcome.

本，欢迎。

Thanks, Jeff.

谢谢，杰夫。

Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum and one of the most influential thinkers and writers in crypto.

Vitalik Buterin，以太坊联合创始人，加密货币领域最有影响力的思想家和作家之一。

Vitalik, welcome.

维塔利克，欢迎。

Thank you.

谢谢。

To start off, we’re here in Chennai, India.

首先，我们在印度金奈。

We’re here for a Mercatus Center conference.

我们来这里是为了参加莫卡图斯中心的会议。

Twenty years ago, would you have thought that the growth of the blog would lead to the rising prominence and influence of George Mason economics, the rising prominence and influence of the Mercatus Center, which I work for, such that we would now be sitting here in Chennai, India, running a conference, in part because of the success of the blog?

二十年前，您是否会想到博客的发展会导致乔治·梅森经济学的知名度和影响力不断上升，以及我工作的默卡特斯中心的知名度和影响力不断上升，以至于我们现在坐在印度金奈举办会议，部分原因是博客的成功？

What does that say to you?

这对你说了什么？

My original vision was, if we were lucky, we would have 5,000 readers, and I thought it would be mostly academics, people like Timur Kuran who wanted something more interesting.

我最初的愿景是，如果幸运的话，我们将拥有 5,000 名读者，而且我认为主要是学者，像帖木儿·库兰这样想要更有趣的东西的人。

I didn’t understand we would end up in a world where Timur Kuran’s wife reads Marginal Revolution.

我不明白我们最终会进入一个铁木尔·库兰的妻子读《边际革命》的世界。

The reach of not just blogs, but just online writing — now it’s maybe Substack or Twitter or whatever — I always knew it was going to happen, but it’s gone far past what I ever expected.

不仅仅是博客，还有在线写作 ——现在可能是 Substack 或 Twitter 或其他什么 —— 我一直都知道这会发生，但它远远超出了我的预期。

There was definitely an inflection point.

肯定有一个拐点。

At the very beginning, when we started out, blogging was something that other academics looked down upon, turned their noses down, “Oh, you’re just speaking to the public.” Then maybe about five years in, beginning with the start of the empirical revolution, people like theorists and the high-named people would start sending us their papers.

一开始，当我们刚开始的时候，博客是其他学者看不起的东西，他们嗤之以鼻，“哦，你只是在向公众讲话。”然后大约五年后，从实证革命开始，像理论家和知名人士这样的人就会开始向我们发送他们的论文。

“Could you put this on the blog?” That was a real shift in the vibe, as it were.

“你能把这个放在博客上吗？”可以说，这是一种真正的氛围转变。

Speaking of that, I think about different eras of Marginal Revolution but I think the first era of Marginal Revolution is ’03 to ’08.

说到这里，我想到了边际革命的不同时代，但我认为边际革命的第一个时代是03年到08年。

It’s the rise of new media, podcasting, and blogging, and also the rise of popular economics.

这是新媒体、播客和博客的兴起，也是大众经济学的兴起。

A lot of the younger readers to MR may not even be aware of Freakonomics being released in 2005, and there was just this onslaught of popular economics books.

许多《MR》的年轻读者可能甚至不知道 2005 年出版的《魔鬼经济学》，当时正值流行经济学书籍的猛攻。

Would you agree that that’s a distinct era in MR?

您是否同意这是 MR 的一个独特时代？

And what are your thoughts on that time period?

您对那段时期有何看法？

Yes, absolutely.

是的，绝对是。

I think it is part of the rise of popular economics, so we timed that well.

我认为这是大众经济学兴起的一部分，所以我们的时机把握得很好。

There were the grandfathers like Steven Landsburg and people like that.

有像史蒂文·兰兹伯格这样的祖父和类似的人。

Then with the Freakonomics phenomena, I remember seeing Steve Levitt on the Daily Show, and Jon Stewart was like, “Freakonomics!” Oh my God, it was very, very strange, but you knew something had changed.

然后，关于魔鬼经济学现象，我记得在《每日秀》上看到史蒂夫·莱维特，乔恩·斯图尔特说，“魔鬼经济学！”天哪，这非常非常奇怪，但你知道有些事情发生了变化。

We covered no macroeconomics then.

那时我们没有涉及宏观经济学。

There just wasn’t much to say.

没什么可说的。

There weren’t that many interesting debates.

没有那么多有趣的辩论。

That, too, was part of it.

这也是其中的一部分。

Ben, you started reading MR in that era.

Ben，你就是在那个时代开始读MR的。

How did you discover Marginal Revolution?

您是如何发现边际革命的？

What’s the story there?

那里有什么故事？

I can’t remember how I discovered it, but I remember being struck by the incredible curiosity on display in the blog, but also the relentless optimism that infused all of the posts.

我不记得我是如何发现它的，但我记得博客中表现出的令人难以置信的好奇心以及所有帖子中注入的不懈乐观精神让我震惊。

I think what was striking about that era of the blogosphere was how civil and polite it all was.

我认为那个时代的博客圈最引人注目的是它的文明和礼貌。

That’s clearly changed a great deal, and I wonder, when you look back on that era, is there a wistfulness for the tone and the camaraderie of the blogosphere?

这显然发生了很大的变化，我想知道，当你回顾那个时代时，是否对博客圈的语气和友情感到渴望？

Now it feels like such a toxic social media ecosystem and so much noisier.

现在感觉社交媒体生态系统有毒，而且更加嘈杂。

When I look back to that era, it seems like a golden age, but I suspect if I had to go back and read everyone’s posts, I’d be pretty bored.

当我回顾那个时代时，这似乎是一个黄金时代，但我怀疑如果我必须回去阅读每个人的帖子，我会很无聊。

That people get more to the point now is a good thing.

人们现在更加切入主题是一件好事。

There is something about Twitter and other social media that encouraged jabs and nastiness, but I actually prefer the world we’re in now.

Twitter 和其他社交媒体在某种程度上鼓励了攻击和肮脏行为，但我实际上更喜欢我们现在所处的世界。

The fact that you have all these repeated interactions — it made people nicer, but repeated interactions are themselves a little problematic.

事实上，你有所有这些重复的互动——这让人们变得更好，但重复的互动本身就有点问题。

That’s true.

这是真的。

It is a little bit sad, but what has been sad, actually, is that we’re almost the last man standing, right?

有点悲伤，但事实上，悲伤的是我们几乎是最后一个站着的人，对吧？

All of those blogs — as you get older, your friends die.

所有这些博客 ——随着年龄的增长，你的朋友都会死去。

So we haven’t quite gotten there, but in terms of blogs, the blogs have just disappeared and faded away, and we are the last ones still remaining from that era.

所以我们还没有完全做到这一点，但就博客而言，博客刚刚消失并逐渐消失，而我们是那个时代最后剩下的人。

That’s a little bit wistful.

这实在是有点令人向往。

Vitalik, Ben, do you consider yourself bloggers?

Vitalik、Ben，你们认为自己是博主吗？

I have a blog, so I guess so.

我有一个博客，所以我想是的。

Versus, say, an essayist or something maybe a little more pompous.

与散文家或其他可能更浮夸的人相比。

What is the difference?

有什么区别？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Paul Graham’s an essayist.

保罗·格雷厄姆是一位散文家。

Yes, Paul Graham would be an essayist.

是的，保罗·格雷厄姆会成为一名散文家。

But I would say Vitalik’s a blogger somehow.

但我想说维塔利克在某种程度上是一位博主。

Interesting.

有趣的。

To me, an essay is something you write in high school in exchange for getting grades.

对我来说，论文是你在高中时为了获得成绩而写的东西。

Ben, what about you, do you self-identify?

本，你呢，你有自我认同吗？

I do, but when MR started, when I was blogging in 2004, there were RSS readers.

我确实这样做，但是当 MR 开始时，当我在 2004 年写博客时，就有了 RSS 阅读器。

You would read every post.

你会阅读每一篇文章。

You really felt like you had a connection with the person you were reading.

你真的觉得你和你正在读的人有联系。

It was a smaller community.

那是一个较小的社区。

When Google killed Google Reader, I felt like that was also a distinct end to a chapter in the blogosphere because suddenly all the distribution went to Twitter and Facebook, and you didn’t read every post anymore.

当谷歌杀死谷歌阅读器时，我觉得这也是博客圈一个章节的明显结束，因为突然所有的分发都转移到了 Twitter 和 Facebook，你不再阅读每一篇文章了。

I aggregated a lot of my blogs in those days in Google Reader, but I saved Marginal Revolution as a bookmark because I wanted to check Marginal Revolution.

我在Google Reader中汇总了当时的很多博客，但我将《边际革命》保存为书签，因为我想查看《边际革命》。

For some reason, I didn’t want it to be in that kind of stream.

出于某种原因，我不希望它出现在那种流中。

I wanted to check it as a destination, and I still do, actually.

我想将其作为目的地进行检查，实际上我仍然这样做。

It’s because of the frequency.

这是因为频率。

I think it’s so rare for a blog to publish multiple times a day, so that if you click refresh in the browser, you actually get new content.

我认为博客每天发布多次的情况非常罕见，因此如果您在浏览器中单击刷新，您实际上会获得新内容。

You don’t have to wait for it to syndicate to RSS.

您不必等待它联合到 RSS。

We average four to five a day for most of the history of the blog.

在博客的大部分历史中，我们平均每天四到五个。

When they come up is timed somewhat strategically.

它们出现的时间是有策略的。

I think it’s why —

我想这就是原因 ——

You schedule post-ins?

你安排发帖时间吗？

Oh, absolutely.

哦，绝对是。

Ah, okay.

啊，好吧。

The death of the blogosphere — there are just not that many internet sites you can go to that are at all interesting and also not gated.

博客圈的消亡 ——你可以访问的既有趣又不受限制的网站并不多。

We’ve just picked up a lot of people.

我们刚刚接了很多人。

Oh, they’ve been to New York Times already, or they’ve been to Financial Times, and how many other places can they go?

噢，他们已经去过《纽约时报》了，或者已经去过《金融时报》了，还能去多少地方？

They come to Marginal Revolution.

他们来到了边际革命。

You optimize post-ins based on what, Western-reader time zone?

您根据西方读者的时区来优化发布？

We’re in India today.

我们今天在印度。

If you’re going to write something this afternoon, it’s the middle of the night in California.

如果你今天下午要写点什么，那是加州的半夜。

Are you thinking about the timing of a post?

您是否在考虑发帖时间？

I spread mine out so they come during the Western workday in North America.

我把我的东西摊开，这样它们就会在北美的西方工作日到来。

But the very first post or two I have come up at 1:00 a.m.

但我的第一两篇文章是在凌晨 1:00 发布的。

because this way, people in Europe can see it for lunch, but the people waking up, say, at 7:00 in New York City, that it’s been stale for six hours, they don’t really know.

因为通过这种方式，欧洲人可以在午餐时看到它，但纽约市的人们在 7:00 醒来时发现它已经不新鲜了 6 个小时，他们并不真正知道。

Very generous with the Europeans to give them at least something over lunch to read.

对欧洲人非常慷慨，至少在午餐时给他们一些东西供他们阅读。

I think that is one.

我认为这是其中之一。

As someone who has access to Marginal Revolution’s back end, I think their model is, you guys write the post and smash that publish button, and a lot of these posters are scheduled —

作为能够访问边际革命后端的人，我认为他们的模型是，你们写了帖子并按下了发布按钮，并且很多这样的海报都被安排好了 -

Yes.

是的。

It’s really strange when people ask you, “Were you up at 1:00 a.m.

当人们问你“你凌晨 1:00 起床了吗？”时，这真的很奇怪。

in the morning posting that?” No.

早上发布那个？”不。

I’m the opposite.

我恰恰相反。

I don’t schedule.

我不安排。

The publish time is the time it’s published.

发布时间就是发布的时间。

Very good.

非常好。

I was going to ask all of you, while we’re on this, what are some independent blogs that you still read, or what’s your favorite independent blog?

我想问你们所有人，当我们讨论这个问题时，你们仍然在阅读哪些独立博客，或者你们最喜欢的独立博客是什么？

Not Substack, not the analogs, but an actual blog blog.

不是 Substack，也不是类似的博客，而是一个真正的博客。

I was going to say Slate Star Codex, but then I guess it became a Substack.

我本来想说 Slate Star Codex，但后来我猜它变成了 Substack。

Ben and Vitalik, obviously, and not just being polite.

显然，本和维塔利克不仅仅是出于礼貌。

Scott Sumner, I definitely still read.

斯科特·萨姆纳，我肯定还在读。

Yes.

是的。

I got Paul Krugman, sort of a blog.

我有保罗·克鲁格曼（Paul Krugman），有点像博客。

It’s not a blog anymore, though.

不过，它不再是博客了。

It’s just a periodic column.

这只是一个周期性的专栏。

Yes, periodic column.

是的，定期专栏。

It doesn’t sound like a blog anymore.

它听起来不再像一个博客了。

Yes.

是的。

You guys really have been the last hangers-on.

你们真的是最后的食客了。

Correct.

正确的。

Do you have any plans to change the format?

您有改变格式的计划吗？

Would you move to Substack or something like that?

你会转向 Substack 或类似的东西吗？

We have no plans to change.

我们没有改变的计划。

Yes.

是的。

People ask us periodically to do something else, and should we price it, right?

人们定期要求我们做其他事情，我们应该为其定价，对吧？

Should we do a Substack model, subscription model, and so forth.

我们是否应该做一个子栈模型、订阅模型等等。

But we’ve always kept it free, always kept it open.

但我们始终保持它免费，始终保持开放。

No ads for a long time.

好久没有广告了。

Yes, and we’re happy with that.

是的，我们对此感到满意。

That’s part of the reason why we’re here in Chennai.

这就是我们来到钦奈的部分原因。

It’s about distributing the ideas.

这是关于传播想法。

It’s about reaching as many people as possible, and we’re just much more interested in doing that than monetizing something.

这是为了覆盖尽可能多的人，我们对此更感兴趣，而不是通过某些东西赚钱。

Also, there’s a remarkable consistency to the design and layout.

此外，设计和布局具有显着的一致性。

I think I’ve been giving grief to Tyler for years on, “Hey, you might think about redesigning this portion.” I think the best analogy that I have for MR on the internet is Craigslist.

我想多年来我一直在为泰勒感到悲伤，“嘿，你可能会考虑重新设计这部分。”我认为互联网上 MR 的最佳类比是 Craigslist。

Alex, didn’t you pick the shade of green from George Mason University green?

亚历克斯，你不是从乔治梅森大学的绿色中挑选了绿色吗？

Yes, correct.

是的，正确。

Yes.

是的。

That’s our little Straussian allegiance to our own school, but people don’t know that somehow.

这是我们对自己学派的一点施特劳斯式的忠诚，但人们不知何故并不知道这一点。

George Mason itself has rebranded at least once or twice, I think, in that time.

我认为，乔治梅森大学本身在那段时间至少已经重新命名过一两次。

The subheading, “Small Steps Toward a Much Better World” — Alex and I argued.

副标题“迈向更美好世界的小步骤” —— 亚历克斯和我争论道。

I thought it should say “Small Steps Toward a Better World.” He thought it should say “Much Better World,” and he was totally right.

我认为它应该说“迈向更美好世界的一小步”。他认为应该写“世界更美好”，他是完全正确的。

I’m not sure.

我不知道。

I know you like that point.

我知道你喜欢这一点。

Just how I like asking people, “How ambitious are you?”

我多么喜欢问别人：“你有多大的野心？”

“Small steps toward a giant leap forward” would’ve been better parallelism with the moon, but it would’ve also had another association.

“迈向巨大飞跃的一小步”与月球的对应关系会更好，但它也会有另一个关联。

Yes.

是的。

That was the first era.

那是第一个时代。

We’re talking a little bit about the first era in Marginal Revolution.

我们正在谈论边际革命的第一个时代。

The second one, I would say, is 2008 to 2016.

第二个，我想说的是2008年到2016年。

You have the Great Recession, the financial crisis of ’08, which after the rise of popular economics, suddenly a huge crisis that everyone has to talk about right now.

你有大衰退，08年的金融危机，在流行经济学兴起之后，突然变成了现在每个人都必须谈论的巨大危机。

It’s clearly the biggest economic issue in the world.

这显然是世界上最大的经济问题。

That leads on to great stagnation, and how do we bounce back because it was such a long recovery.

这导致了巨大的停滞，我们如何反弹，因为这是一个如此漫长的复苏。

Yes, 2008–2010, the financial crisis, I think, was the peak of the blogosphere.

是的，我认为 2008 年至 2010 年金融危机是博客圈的顶峰。

To me, watching in real time, people trying to figure out what is going on and actually not having a clue, but seeing people like Tyler, Scott Sumner, Paul Krugman, Mark Thoma, really a bunch of macroeconomists, top people, the very best people in the world were literally, in real time, struggling to understand what was going on and trading ideas with one another.

对我来说，实时观察人们试图弄清楚正在发生的事情，但实际上却毫无头绪，但看到像泰勒、斯科特·萨姆纳、保罗·克鲁格曼、马克·托马这样的人，实际上是一群宏观经济学家、顶尖人物、世界上最优秀的人，他们在实时地努力了解正在发生的事情并互相交换想法。

We were invited to the Treasury to talk with —

我们被邀请到财政部与 交谈——

Geithner.

盖特纳。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

That was incredible.

这太不可思议了。

The bloggers were talking with top Treasury officials, and that made sense because, really, so few people understood what was going on, and everyone was trying to help one another and get different perspectives on it.

博客作者正在与财政部高级官员交谈，这是有道理的，因为实际上很少有人了解正在发生的事情，每个人都在努力互相帮助并获得不同的观点。

That was really a remarkable time.

那真是一段非凡的时光。

That was the era when the blogosphere, or more generally, internet as a tool of intellectual calculation became developed.

那是博客圈，或者更广泛地说，互联网作为智力计算工具得到发展的时代。

The notion that it’s a computer of its own and that if you learn how to play the keys, you could figure out the best sense of what was going on, but not from any one blog.

它的概念是，它是一台自己的计算机，如果你学习如何弹奏琴键，你就可以弄清楚正在发生的事情的最佳感觉，但不是从任何一个博客。

A lot of MR in those eras, you need to think of it as part of this larger organ of intellectual calculation.

在那些时代有很多MR，你需要将其视为这个更大的智力计算机构的一部分。

We were a cog in that machine.

我们是那台机器上的一个齿轮。

It’s not true now, it wasn’t true in the earlier popular-economics years, but that’s how I think of that time.

现在不是这样，在早期的流行经济学年代也不是这样，但这就是我当时的想法。

Why isn’t it true now anymore?

为什么现在不再是这样了？

Well, there aren’t many other blogs and back and forth between us and Twitter.

嗯，我们和 Twitter 之间没有太多其他博客和来回交流。

There is a little of it, but I think you can use Twitter.

有一点，但我认为你可以使用 Twitter。

EconTwitter doesn’t count?

EcoTwitter不算数？

No, it does, but it’s not —

不，是这样，但不是 ——

It’s migrated.

它已迁移。

Isn’t that sad?

这不是很悲伤吗？

Because we’ve moved from the long format that you all pioneered in MR that allowed for substantive exploration.

因为我们已经放弃了你们在 MR 中开创的长格式，允许进行实质性探索。

Is the quality of the conversation as good on EconTwitter today?

今天 EconTwitter 上的对话质量还好吗？

You get better helpful suggestions about how to, say, run a particular kind of regression.

您会获得关于如何运行特定类型的回归的更好有用的建议。

But the debate is much worse, and EconTwitter has tended to lean somewhat left, and it’s less balanced than the older blogosphere was.

但争论要糟糕得多，EconTwitter 倾向于左倾，而且它比旧的博客圈更不平衡。

The debate is worse, but I would say, actually, as we’re speaking right now, we’re seeing something sort of parallel, not with blogs, but understanding superconductivity and seeing all of these people around the world trying to replicate these Korean results.

争论更糟糕，但我想说，实际上，正如我们现在所说，我们看到了某种类似的东西，不是通过博客，而是了解超导性，并看到世界各地的所有这些人都试图复制这些韩国的结果。

That feels, to me, very similar to the blogosphere in 2008 — everyone trying to figure out, what is this shadow banking system?

对我来说，这与 2008 年的博客圈非常相似——每个人都想弄清楚，这个影子银行体系是什么？

What is happening to credit?

信用发生了什么？

Is this when the banks are still giving out credit?

现在银行还在发放信贷吗？

Why are people saying we can’t get any money?

为什么有人说我们拿不到钱？

What’s going on?

这是怎么回事？

That was like the replication of the superconductivity today.

这就像今天超导的复制。

I believe you started reading MR in the second era, ’08 to 2016.

我相信你是在第二个时代，即08年到2016年开始阅读MR的。

Is that about when you started reading Marginal Revolution?

那是你开始阅读《边际革命》的时候吗？

Yes, sometime between 2010 and 2012.

是的，2010 年到 2012 年之间的某个时候。

Not sure exactly when.

不确定具体是什么时候。

How old were you?

你当时几岁？

Somewhere between 16 and 18.

16 岁到 18 岁之间。

Not sure exactly how old.

不确定具体有多大。

What were you reading?

你在读什么？

Do you remember how you came across Marginal Revolution?

你还记得你是如何接触到《边际革命》的吗？

Paint us a picture.

给我们画一幅画。

What was your intellectual ecosystem?

你的智力生态系统是什么？

This was the time when I was really getting into what was, back then, the Bitcoin world.

那是我真正进入当时的比特币世界的时候。

Because back then, Bitcoin was basically the only crypto out there, and it was very closely connected with Austrian economics, libertarianism, rationalism, effective altruism, that whole bubble of .

因为当时，比特币基本上是唯一的加密货币，它与奥地利经济学、自由主义、理性主义、有效利他主义以及整个泡沫密切相关。

.

。

.

。

Well, there’s multiple bubbles in there.

嗯，里面有很多气泡。

All the most important isms in the world, right?

世界上所有最重要的主义，对吧？

Those whole bubbles of movements.

那些运动的气泡。

MR was definitely in the mesh.

MR 绝对是在网格中。

It was something that I would see links to from other places.

我会看到其他地方的链接。

I probably would have seen links to it from Twitter as well, though I think my Twitter usage was definitely pretty low back then.

我可能也会从 Twitter 上看到它的链接，尽管我认为当时我的 Twitter 使用率肯定很低。

We were one of the first places to report on Bitcoin at all.

我们是最早报道比特币的地方之一。

Someone sent it to me as a link, and I didn’t understand it.

有人把它作为链接发送给我，我听不懂。

Not just I didn’t understand it in a deep way; I didn’t even understand it in a superficial way.

不仅我没有深入理解它；而且我还没有深入理解它。我什至没有从表面上理解它。

But I thought, “Well, this sounds interesting.

但我想：“嗯，这听起来很有趣。

We’re like a forum for new ideas.

我们就像一个新想法的论坛。

This is a new idea.

这是一个新想法。

Let’s put it up.”

我们把它放上来吧。”

But you didn’t buy Bitcoin at the time?

但你当时没有买比特币？

No.

不。

That’s why we’re all still here in Chennai.

这就是为什么我们都还留在钦奈。

To see people who began reading us at a younger age and then turn into a Vitalik or something like that — that’s one of the biggest thrills Tyler and I can possibly have.

看到人们在年轻的时候就开始阅读我们的文章，然后变成了维塔利克或类似的人——这是泰勒和我可能拥有的最大的兴奋之一。

I mean, it’s incredible.

我的意思是，这太不可思议了。

We’ve had students at George Mason who come and, “I’ve been reading you since I was 12.” Now they’re getting their PhDs.

乔治梅森大学的一些学生来到这里后说：“我从 12 岁起就一直在读你的书。”现在他们正在获得博士学位。

That’s mind-blowing.

这真是令人兴奋。

These things can make an influence.

这些事情可以产生影响。

Outside of economics, the other one was, I read Aubrey’s book on anti-aging when I was around 13.

除了经济学之外，另一个是，我在 13 岁左右的时候读了奥布里（Aubrey）关于抗衰老的书。

That’s definitely stuck with me pretty much forever since then.

从那时起，这件事就一直困扰着我。

Would you say you were more influenced by blogs and internet thinking versus books?

您是否认为博客和互联网思维比书籍对您的影响更大？

I definitely did all the standard round of books of the internet hive mind, at least what the libertarian hive mind told you to read back then.

我绝对读过互联网蜂巢思维的所有标准书籍，至少是自由主义蜂巢思维当时告诉你要读的书。

I went through Ayn Rand.

我经历过安·兰德。

I went through Human Action.

我经历了人类行动。

Went through all of the standard good stuff at the time.

经历了当时所有标准的好东西。

I definitely, yes, probably moved over to being more blog-driven somewhat later.

我肯定，是的，可能稍后会转向更多以博客为主导。

I think nearer the beginning, I was more seeking out one or a very small number of big ideas that would explain a whole bunch of things.

我认为一开始，我更多的是寻找一个或极少数可以解释一大堆事情的大想法。

I guess I became somewhat more intellectually pluralist over time.

我想随着时间的推移，我在智力上变得更加多元化。

I think to Alex’s point about the folks who’ve been influenced — like Vitalik and myself — I think it’s not just the direct influence, but it’s also the community of readers.

我认为亚历克斯关于那些受到影响的人的观点——比如维塔利克和我自己——我认为这不仅仅是直接影响，而且还有读者社区。

There are so many people who are now close friends of mine, who first discovered me via MR, and now, in a very offline way, we’re good friends.

现在有很多人是我的亲密朋友，他们是通过 MR 第一次发现我的，现在，以一种非常离线的方式，我们是好朋友。

There’s this second- and third-order effect of these communities.

这些社区存在二阶和三阶效应。

There’s an MR marriage.

有一场MR婚姻。

There is an MR marriage.

有一个MR婚姻。

Kathleen and Eric, who at the time lived in the state of Texas.

凯瑟琳和埃里克当时住在德克萨斯州。

I think they still do.

我认为他们仍然这样做。

It turns out it’s legal in Texas, that if you pledge marriage through a backtrack feature of blogging which goes back, that it counts as a legally binding pledge, and they literally legally married on Marginal Revolution.

事实证明，在德克萨斯州这是合法的，如果你通过博客的回溯功能宣誓结婚，那么它就被视为具有法律约束力的誓言，他们在边际革命中真正合法地结婚了。

Wow, you guys are almost beating the blockchain here.

哇，你们快要打败区块链了。

What is the state of their marriage?

他们的婚姻状况如何？

Are they trending well?

他们的趋势好吗？

Do we know?

我们知道吗？

I visited them a few years ago.

几年前我拜访过他们。

They seemed very happy, but that’s a while back now.

他们看起来很高兴，但那是很久以前的事了。

Ben opened the door to commenters and readers and readership.

本向评论者、读者和读者群敞开了大门。

Let’s go into that right now.

我们现在就开始讨论这个问题。

If we snapped our fingers and removed the comment section, how would MR change?

如果我们打个响指，把评论部分去掉，MR会发生什么变化？

How would it have dealt historically, or if you did it now, how do you think it would change?

历史上会如何处理，或者如果你现在这样做，你认为它会发生什么变化？

I tried doing that for two weeks a few years ago, just to be arbitrary, and a lot of people complained to me that they no longer had context for the posts.

几年前，我尝试这样做了两周，只是为了任意，很多人向我抱怨他们不再了解这些帖子的背景。

My style, in particular, is to assume the reader knows everything and give them nothing.

我的风格尤其是假设读者知道一切，但什么也不给他们。

They all think it’s Straussian or some secret code.

他们都认为这是施特劳斯式的或者某种密码。

It’s not.

它不是。

You don’t know what I’m talking about.

你不知道我在说什么。

The comment section could be hit or miss.

评论部分可能会受到打击或错过。

It usually misses on theory.

它通常会忽略理论。

People are not good at that, but you can sometimes find the one person in the world who knows more facts about the issue that you’re writing about.

人们不擅长这一点，但有时你可以找到世界上唯一一个对你所写问题了解更多事实的人。

The ability of the blog to bubble that person to the top who has this really specific knowledge about this tiny, tiny area of the world, and then you can learn from them — that, I think, is very valuable about the comments.

博客能够将那些对世界上这个极小区域拥有真正具体知识的人推到顶峰，然后你可以向他们学习 ——我认为，这对于评论来说是非常有价值的。

Do you guys read the Twitter responses to the MR posts?

你们读过 Twitter 对 MR 帖子的回复吗？

No, I don’t.

不，我不。

If I see it on Twitter, I would read it, but —

如果我在 Twitter 上看到它，我会阅读它，但是 -

If it’s @tylercowen, I do, but if it’s @MargRev, I don’t because I just do one click to my mentions.

如果是@tylercowen，我会这样做，但如果是@MargRev，我不会，因为我只需点击一下我的提及即可。

We would look on the blog.

我们会在博客上查看。

We look at the comments, but we don’t get upset by them.

我们会看评论，但我们不会因此而感到不安。

It’s almost become a Reddit-style repository of knowledge as it relates to travel.

它几乎成为了 Reddit 式的旅游知识库。

One of the things that I’ve learned to do when searching the internet for stuff is just to add the word Reddit to the end of a query to avoid all the SEO-ed crap at the top of the results and just get right to the Reddit page on a given topic, and for certain travel resources because how would Tyler know where to eat if there wasn’t a bleg on the blog about where to eat in some random city in the middle of nowhere?

当我在互联网上搜索东西时，我学会做的一件事就是在查询的末尾添加 Reddit 这个词，以避免结果顶部出现所有 SEO 垃圾，直接进入特定主题的 Reddit 页面，以及某些旅游资源，因为如果博客上没有关于在某个偏僻的随机城市去哪里吃饭的信息，泰勒怎么知道去哪里吃饭呢？

I do that too, and it might’ve been my post.

我也这样做，这可能是我的帖子。

The MR search function is the most underrated part of the blog, I think.

我认为 MR 搜索功能是博客中最被低估的部分。

That you call it the MR search function, which is the quintessential Tyler phrase that you’ve been using since the beginning.

您将其称为 MR 搜索功能，这是您从一开始就一直在使用的典型 Tyler 短语。

Marginal Revolution has been going for 20 years.

边际革命已经持续了20年。

You’re posting three, five times a day for 20 years.

20 年来，你每天发帖三、五次。

Now, people are jumping in just in the past couple of years.

现在，人们在过去几年才加入进来。

It’s almost like The Simpsons.

这几乎就像《辛普森一家》。

Where do you even start?

你从哪里开始呢？

Is a 15-year-old — ?

15岁是不是 —— ？

The first blog post ever.

有史以来第一篇博客文章。

Is there a greatest-hits list anywhere?

有没有最热门的歌曲列表？

No, I’ve deliberately not done that.

不，我不是故意这么做的。

For one thing, I might change my mind, but I don’t want people to feel there’s some easy way of skimming the cream.

一方面，我可能会改变主意，但我不想让人们觉得有一些简单的方法可以撇去奶油。

They just have to keep on riding along with us.

他们只需要继续和我们一起骑行。

Don’t make it too easy.

不要让它变得太容易。

Make them work for the insight now.

现在就让他们为洞察力而努力。

Exactly.

确切地。

It’s not about them.

这与他们无关。

It’s about me and Alex.

这是关于我和亚历克斯的。

It’s not the blog they want to read.

这不是他们想读的博客。

Exactly.

确切地。

You have no plans to somehow get out of that flow model and provide the best-of or the stock.

您没有计划以某种方式摆脱该流程模型并提供最好的或库存。

At first, it was relatively easy to get the stock of MR. Now it’s just a river.

起初，获得MR的股票相对容易。现在它只是一条河。

You’ve got to jump in and let it carry you away.

你必须跳进去，让它带你走。

Let people play around with the MR search function.

让人们玩转 MR 搜索功能。

Maybe we’ll do a book or something like that.

也许我们会写一本书或类似的东西。

I had looked at this at one point, and just to get a PDF of the blog post — read them and see them — it broke all of the .

我曾经看过这篇文章，只是为了获得博客文章的 PDF  —— 阅读并查看它们 ——它破坏了所有内容。

.

。

.

。

It was just too big.

它太大了。

We had to do it year by year.

我们必须年复一年地这样做。

You think about that.

你想想看。

That’s thousands of posts, and the whole thing — just to read it all to find the best posts — it’s going to take some time.

那是数千个帖子，而整个事情 — 只是阅读所有内容以找到最好的帖子 — 这将需要一些时间。

I wonder if ChatGPT is going to change it.

我想知道 ChatGPT 是否会改变它。

What happens if you type in, “What does Marginal Revolution say about what you should do in Singapore?” Does that work?

如果您输入“边际革命对您在新加坡应该做什么有何看法？”，会发生什么？那有用吗？

At some point, it will.

在某些时候，它会的。

Yes.

是的。

I think some point soon, in the next two years.

我认为很快就会在未来两年内的某个时刻出现。

Maybe the MR search function is not as important as we thought it was.

也许MR搜索功能并没有我们想象的那么重要。

Well, it may become less important, but until then —

好吧，它可能会变得不那么重要，但在那之前 ——

For now, it remains the most underrated feature.

目前，它仍然是最被低估的功能。

It’s still easier to use than, say, GPT-4.

它仍然比 GPT-4 更容易使用。

It’s just right there, and it’s free, and it’s pretty quick.

它就在那里，而且是免费的，而且速度非常快。

At some point, we’ll be able to ask, even for a city that Tyler has never been to, where we could say, “What restaurant would Tyler Cowen want to eat at?”

在某些时候，我们将能够询问，即使对于泰勒从未去过的城市，我们也可以说：“泰勒·考恩想在哪家餐厅吃饭？”

No, I’ve done that.

不，我已经这么做了。

GPT-4 is pretty good at that.

GPT-4 在这方面非常擅长。

I do that, actually, fairly often.

事实上，我经常这样做。

“Where would you tell Tyler Cowen to go eat?” That’s the prompt you need.

“你会让泰勒·考恩去哪里吃饭？”这就是您需要的提示。

This works better for you than for me.

这对你来说比对我更有效。

If I did this, it would just answer, “Oh, Vitalik Buterin would obviously want to go to a decentralized restaurant.”

如果我这样做，它只会回答：“哦，Vitalik Buterin 显然想去一家去中心化的餐厅。”

Or Eastern European food, right?

或者东欧食物，对吧？

It’ll take decentralized.

这需要去中心化。

It’ll say I like eating cryptographically verifiable hash.

它会说我喜欢吃可加密验证的哈希值。

It’ll tell you to go to a chain restaurant.

它会告诉你去一家连锁餐厅。

That’s some good jokes, guys.

伙计们，这是一些很好的笑话。

I’m really impressed with that.

我对此印象深刻。

Just off the dome.

就在圆顶外面。

He was a very good polymath, super smart.

他是一位非常博学的人，超级聪明。

Every 50th comment or so, he’d just call his intellectual opponent a total moron, followed by some obscenities, and then he’d be back to totally cool and smooth.

每隔 50 条左右的评论，他就会称他的智力对手是个十足的白痴，然后说一些脏话，然后他就会恢复到完全冷静和顺利。

He needed to get it out of his system, like all of us, every 50 comments.

他需要像我们所有人一样，每 50 条评论就将其从系统中删除。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

What did this guy do?

这家伙做了什么？

Did he have a job or — ?

他有工作吗还是 —— ？

Oh, professor.

哦，教授。

Yes.

是的。

He was a professor of economics, but chaos theory mathematician.

他是一位经济学教授，同时也是混沌理论的数学家。

Soviet economy.

苏联经济。

Yes.

是的。

Yes.

是的。

Soviet economy.

苏联经济。

Yes.

是的。

Well, here’s your chance to lift up the best commenter.

好吧，这是您评选最佳评论者的机会。

Who in your mind — right now or throughout the history of MR — who stands out to you as a good commenter?

您心目中的谁 ——现在或整个 MR 历史中—— 谁是您眼中最出色的评论者？

Someone who always —

总是 ——的人

Right now ‘Sure’ is the best commenter.

现在“当然”是最好的评论者。

I don’t know who he or she is; probably it’s a he, given our comment section.

我不知道他或她是谁；鉴于我们的评论部分，可能是他。

But just a lot of concrete points, especially about the healthcare sector.

但有很多具体的要点，特别是关于医疗保健领域。

About the medical system, yes.

关于医疗系统，是的。

Probably a doctor.

可能是一名医生。

Very knowledgeable.

非常有见识。

‘Sure’ is good, ‘dan1111’ or 111 — I don’t know which one — good.

“当然”好，“dan1111”或111 —— 我不知道哪个 —— 好。

It definitely changes over the years.

这些年来它肯定发生了变化。

Not everybody has come as long.

并不是每个人都来得那么久。

It changes.

它改变了。

It’s like the intellectual calculation of the comment section.

就像评论区的智力计算一样。

There will be lists of comments.

将会有评论列表。

Maybe every comment is bad, but actually, in the aggregate, you learn a lot from triangulating against it.

也许每条评论都是不好的，但实际上，总的来说，你可以从针对它的三角测量中学到很多东西。

Well, here’s what these people would say.

好吧，这就是这些人会说的话。

Adding the upvote feature, to me, was long overdue but has substantially improved the quality of the comment section.

对我来说，添加点赞功能是姗姗来迟的，但它大大提高了评论部分的质量。

The Reddit style, being able to just see the top comments versus wading through it all, I think has been a big improvement.

Reddit 风格，能够只看到热门评论而不是费力浏览所有内容，我认为这是一个很大的进步。

There’s a lot of manipulation, though.

不过，有很多操纵。

I think it’s an improvement, but a modest one.

我认为这是一种进步，但幅度不大。

Are people coordinating among their friends and family to upvote their comment to manipulate — ?

人们是否在他们的朋友和家人之间协调以支持他们的评论来操纵 - ？

They write scripts, I believe.

我相信他们写剧本。

Wow.

哇。

It’s possible to do, but it’s a sign of how “seriously” they take it.

这是可以做到的，但这表明他们对此有多么“认真”。

People are spending their free time writing scripts to hack the comment section of MR. Wow.

人们利用空闲时间编写脚本来攻击 MR 的评论部分。哇。

The most critical people are our biggest fans, in my view.

在我看来，最挑剔的人是我们最大的粉丝。

It’s like, you’re bothering to go after us?

就像，你费心去追我们吗？

I feel really flattered.

我真的觉得受宠若惊。

The opposite of love is not hate; it’s indifference.

爱的反面不是恨，而是恨。这是冷漠。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

Very close together.

非常接近。

Exactly.

确切地。

There are people who are very invested in the maintenance and operation of the Marginal Revolution comment system.

有人对边际革命评论系统的维护和运营非常投入。

Much to the chagrin of some people, you can put any name you want.

让一些人懊恼的是，你可以输入任何你想要的名字。

People who have probably commented maybe as long as Rosser did want their identity protected.

人们可能会评论说，只要罗瑟确实希望他们的身份得到保护。

It really bothers some people when they can’t do that, and anyone can claim to be who they are.

当某些人做不到这一点时，他们确实感到困扰，而且任何人都可以声称自己是他们自己。

Have you thought about giving people that ability or changing it in a way that it’s a little less gameable in that sense?

你是否考虑过赋予人们这种能力，或者以一种不太可玩的方式改变它？

If people register, it can be hacked, or maybe they don’t trust us.

如果人们注册，它可能会被黑客攻击，或者他们可能不信任我们。

I don’t want to force people to have these identities.

我不想强迫人们拥有这些身份。

There’s this one fellow, actually, when he was a kid, he trademarked the name Bill.

事实上，有一个人，当他还是个孩子的时候，他就用“比尔”这个名字注册了商标。

He has IP in the name Bill.

他的 IP 名为 Bill。

There’s another Bill who comes along, violates this guy’s property rights.

还有另一个比尔出现，侵犯了这个人的财产权。

So, the first Bill calls the second one Fake Bill and they slug this out.

因此，第一个比尔称第二个比尔为假比尔，他们决斗了。

First Bill, the guy with all the IP rights to the name — he’s convinced Fake Bill is actually Equestrian .

首先是比尔，这个名字拥有所有知识产权的家伙——他确信假比尔实际上是马术运动员。

He writes us and tells us, “Look at the posting and the timing, and look how it was.

他写信给我们并告诉我们，“看看帖子和时间安排，看看情况如何。

You guys need to get rid of Fake Bill.”

你们需要除掉假比尔。”

There’s no grand conspiracy.

没有什么大阴谋。

It’s just, there are many Bills.

只是，法案有很多。

It definitely fell.

肯定是掉下来了。

The thing which marked it to me was actually our most commented — I believe it’s our most commented-on post — was just Tyler’s post, and it just said “Sarah Palin.” That was it.

对我来说标记它的东西实际上是我们评论最多的 ——我相信这是我们评论最多的帖子 ——只是泰勒的帖子，它只是说“莎拉·佩林”。就是这样。

That is the most commented —

这是评论最多的 ——

The title was Sarah Palin?

标题是莎拉·佩林？

Nothing about it?

没什么事吗？

Nothing else.

没有别的了。

McCain had just picked her.

麦凯恩刚刚选择了她。

I hadn’t heard of her.

我没听说过她。

I just wondered, “What are you people going to say?” It was very innocent on my part.

我只是想知道，“你们会说什么？”就我而言，这是非常无辜的。

The comment section just went nuts.

评论区简直疯了。

Everybody has got an opinion.

大家都有意见了。

It was a little distressing in the sense that that’s precisely the sort of thing that Tyler and I don’t want to do.

这有点令人痛苦，因为这正是泰勒和我不想做的事情。

But at the same time, if you don’t give the comment section an opportunity to speak on the so-called issue of the day, they will take some other post, which is on something entirely different, and say, “But what about Sarah Palin?” So, you have to give them that outlet.

但与此同时，如果你不给评论部分机会就所谓的当天问题发表意见，他们就会发表其他完全不同的帖子，并说：“但是莎拉·佩林呢？”所以，你必须给他们这个出口。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

They sound like children.

他们听起来像孩子。

I think we’re the children.

我想我们都是孩子

We’re giggling about them.

我们为他们咯咯地笑。

They may be disturbed sometimes, or just very smart people wasting their time.

他们有时可能会受到干扰，或者只是非常聪明的人在浪费时间。

I think in this era of the political discourse, the level-headedness of MR, which sounds both truly reflective of your natures but also an intentional norm that you try to establish, was as needed as ever.

我认为，在这个政治话语时代，MR 的冷静，听起来既真实反映了你的本性，又是你试图建立的有意规范，是一如既往的需要。

The cool-headedness.

头脑冷静。

Even in the Trump era, I can’t recall any posts that were over the top in their emotion.

即使在特朗普时代，我也不记得有任何帖子表达了他们的情绪。

We had some very good think pieces in that era, I thought — both of us.

我想，在那个时代，我们有一些非常好的想法——我们俩。

What is a think piece?

什么是思考片？

Like longer?

喜欢更长的？

Well, longer, but about politics, not candidates, about politics at a conceptual level.

好吧，更长，但关于政治，而不是候选人，关于概念层面的政治。

“What is going on here?

“这是怎么回事？

How can this be happening?” sort of pieces.

怎么会发生这种事？”某种碎片。

MR’s market share of my mind definitely increased during that period.

我心目中MR的市场份额在那段时间确实有所增加。

I think I definitely saw other spaces declining in quality, and MR didn’t, to its great credit, which I think was great.

我想我确实看到了其他空间的质量下降，而 MR 没有，这值得称赞，我认为这很棒。

Now, a short-lived era because in 2020, obviously, pandemic, and then, somewhat resulting from that — though some of this stuff was seeded before — you have these big essays on progress, state capacity, libertarianism, but also, of course, pandemic response.

现在，这是一个短暂的时代，因为在 2020 年，显然是大流行，然后，在某种程度上是由此造成的——尽管其中一些东西是之前播下的——你有这些关于进步、国家能力、自由主义的大文章，当然还有大流行应对。

We were stuck inside, for one thing, so we put up more posts.

一方面，我们被困在里面，所以我们发布了更多帖子。

Links would have ten rather than five or six.

链接将有十个，而不是五六个。

Definitely a strange era.

绝对是一个奇怪的时代。

I found I was invited to give this talk to the White House, the domestic policy.

我发现我受邀在白宫发表有关国内政策的演讲。

I’m using incentives to accelerate vaccine development.

我正在利用激励措施来加速疫苗开发。

I get on the call, and turns out that they had invited me and Michael Kremer, who’s the №1 world expert on precisely this question.

我接到电话，结果发现他们邀请了我和迈克尔·克雷默（Michael Kremer），他正是这个问题的世界第一专家。

I was very direct.

我很直接。

I said, “You’ve got to do this, you’ve got to do this.” It’s when the economy was losing like $200 billion, $250 billion a month, so there was almost nowhere you could go wrong.

我说：“你必须这样做，你必须这样做。”当时经济正在损失 2000 亿美元，每个月损失 2500 亿美元，所以几乎没有地方会出错。

First Doses First.

首先服用第一剂。

First Doses First and fractional dosing and using incentives, Operation Warp Speed, all that kind of stuff.

首次剂量首次剂量和分段剂量以及使用激励措施、曲速行动等等。

Then what was peculiar, I think strange — so I had that role, and then Tyler started Fast Grants.

然后有什么奇怪的，我觉得很奇怪 ——所以我得到了这个角色，然后泰勒开始了快速资助。

So, we both had this tremendous involvement in one way or another, but in a very different respect.

所以，我们都以这样或那样的方式参与了这种巨大的参与，但在一个非常不同的方面。

MR became an information clearinghouse with other blogs gone.

MR 成为了一个信息交换所，而其他博客则消失了。

Clearly, there was Twitter for the pandemic, but if you wanted one website where you didn’t have to scroll or fend off other things, we made that the place to go.

显然，针对这一流行病有 Twitter，但如果您想要一个无需滚动或避开其他内容的网站，我们就将其打造为您的最佳选择。

It’s amazing to me, in retrospect, how many people have held that against us, because a lot of what we did was just covering different facts.

回想起来，令我惊讶的是，有多少人反对我们，因为我们所做的很多事情只是掩盖了不同的事实。

Held what against you?

拿什么来反对你？

That we gave so much attention to the pandemic.

我们对这一流行病给予了如此多的关注。

They think we’re like Dr. Fauci or something.

他们认为我们就像福奇博士什么的。

The fake pandemic.

假疫情。

Oh, I see.

我懂了。

Got you.

明白你了。

The fake pandemic.

假疫情。

The one where the vaccines killed the people while there was nothing.

疫苗在什么都没有的情况下杀死了人们。

Remember?

记住？

I hadn’t really thought about it in that way, that Marginal Revolution enabled both of you to have applied real-world responses to the pandemic, but in separate ways.

我并没有真正以这种方式思考过，边际革命使你们俩能够以不同的方式应用现实世界的应对措施来应对这一流行病。

Exactly.

确切地。

It allowed you both to do your independent thing.

它让你们俩都能独立做自己的事情。

You’re both on the blog, obviously covering this stuff, getting your ideas out there.

你们都在博客上，显然涵盖了这些内容，表达了你们的想法。

Then, Alex, you’re much more giving policymakers a very specific idea of something to do, and Tyler goes for, “Let’s get grants out there as quickly as we can.”

然后，亚历克斯，你更多地为政策制定者提供了一个非常具体的想法，告诉他们应该做什么，而泰勒则主张，“让我们尽快获得拨款。”

Fast Grants raised over $50 million, and most of the donors were MR readers.

Fast Grants 筹集了超过 5000 万美元，大多数捐赠者都是 MR 读者。

I think, in part, they felt they trusted me in the operation because they had known of MR for so long, and they knew Alex was doing Operation Warp Speed, and it felt very credible.

我认为，在某种程度上，他们觉得他们在这次行动中信任我，因为他们很早就知道 MR，而且他们知道亚历克斯正在执行曲速行动，而且感觉非常可信。

I wonder if this is a good time to talk about the differences between the two of you, and the way that you write, and the way that you engage with the world, because you’re co-authors and obviously share so much, but the differences are sometimes amusing to see.

我想知道现在是否是谈论你们两个之间的差异、你们写作的方式以及你们与世界互动的方式的好时机，因为你们是共同作者，显然分享了很多，但有时看到这些差异很有趣。

You wrote a post on this.

你就此写了一篇文章。

Do you remember what you said?

你还记得你说的话吗？

I said something like, if the post has got five different explanations for the same phenomena, then it’s a Tyler post.

我说过，如果该帖子对同一现象有五种不同的解释，那么它就是泰勒的帖子。

If it has one explanation, simplifying everything down, then it’s an Alex post.

如果它有一个解释，简化一切，那么它就是一篇亚历克斯的帖子。

If you don’t understand what the post says, it’s a Tyler post.

如果您不明白该帖子的内容，那么这是泰勒的帖子。

If you do understand what the post says, and you hate it, that’s an Alex post.

如果你确实理解这篇文章的内容，但你讨厌它，那它就是 Alex 的文章。

I think that rules pretty well.

我认为这个规则很好。

The way I put it is that the first thing I do when coming to a problem is, strip away as much complexity as I possibly can and get down to what I think is the nut of the problem and try and deal with that.

我的说法是，遇到问题时我要做的第一件事就是，尽可能地消除复杂性，深入探讨我认为问题的本质，并尝试解决它。

While the first thing that Tyler does is, “Let’s think about the five or six or seven things which could influence this, and then we’ll work with those seven different things and try and come up with a solution.” We’re very different in that way.

泰勒做的第一件事是，“让我们考虑一下可能影响此问题的五、六或七件事，然后我们将处理这七件不同的事情，并尝试提出解决方案。”我们在这方面非常不同。

How about the cadence of the output?

输出的节奏怎么样？

Alex, are you ever tempted or inspired to publish more frequently?

Alex，您是否曾经受到诱惑或启发而更频繁地发表文章？

Or Tyler, have you ever thought about doing twice a week?

或者泰勒，你有没有想过每周做两次？

Or what’s that about the difference?

或者说有什么区别？

No, I have no plan on changing.

不，我没有改变的计划。

I think one thing I try to do in many of my posts is to mix moods.

我认为我在许多帖子中尝试做的一件事就是混合情绪。

I presented this notion of mood affiliation.

我提出了情绪归属的概念。

People are optimistic or pessimistic, or they have their loyalty to the mood, and that’s usually a cognitive mistake.

人们是乐观的还是悲观的，或者他们对情绪有忠诚度，这通常是一个认知错误。

I found if you mix moods in a post, you can say things that are entirely correct, and people will just get angry.

我发现如果你在帖子中混合情绪，你可以说完全正确的话，人们只会生气。

They’ll think you’re confusing them, you’re messing with their minds.

他们会认为你让他们感到困惑，你在扰乱他们的思想。

This is deliberate, but I think it’s trying to teach people a lesson.

这是故意的，但我认为这是想给人们一个教训。

Interesting.

有趣的。

It reminds me of the post that I wrote last week on WorldCoin, where I think —

这让我想起了我上周在 WorldCoin 上写的帖子，我认为 ——

Yes, it’s a good example.

是的，这是一个很好的例子。

One of the things that happened is that the people who are pro-WorldCoin basically said, “Look, the haters are crazy.

发生的事情之一是，支持世界币的人基本上都会说：“看，那些仇恨者都疯了。

Vitalik explains it really clearly.” Then the people who are anti basically said, “Look, here’s the section where he outlines what the four crazy risks are.”

Vitalik 解释得很清楚。”然后反对的人基本上会说，“看，这是他概述了四种疯狂风险的部分。”

To answer your question, Ben, it’s not about me being tempted to write more often.

回答你的问题，本，这并不是因为我想更频繁地写作。

The production function just doesn’t encompass that ability.

生产函数不包含这种能力。

People — they don’t believe Tyler reads as much as he does, but he honestly does.

人们——他们不相信泰勒读得那么多，但他确实读得那么多。

It’s true.

这是真的。

I only cover a small fraction of what I read.

我只涵盖了我所读内容的一小部分。

That’s the funny thing.

这就是有趣的事情。

It’s true, Tyler skims, but the way I would put it is this: that he very quickly is able to find something in a book which he doesn’t know, and then he reads that section.

确实如此，泰勒略读了一下，但我想说的是：他很快就能在书中找到他不知道的东西，然后他阅读该部分。

What this means is that the more Tyler reads, the faster he can read because he just skips the stuff he already knows .

这意味着泰勒读得越多，他读得越快，因为他只是跳过他已经知道的东西。

He just has a unique ability, and there’s nobody else, I think, in the world who can produce as much original, interesting new content as Tyler.

他只是拥有一种独特的能力，我认为世界上没有人能像泰勒一样制作出如此多原创、有趣的新内容。

I’m very grateful for that since I feel I don’t have to feed the blog quite as much.

我对此非常感激，因为我觉得我不必为博客提供太多信息。

Speaking of reading, let’s move to a segment I’m calling Mysteries of MR. A couple of times, I think from ’06 to ’08, you hosted book clubs.

说到阅读，让我们进入我称之为“MR 之谜”的部分。我记得从 06 年到 08 年，你们举办过几次读书俱乐部。

There were maybe two or three.

可能有两三个。

There was a Keynes book club on The General Theory, and it just stopped halfway through.

有一个关于《通论》的凯恩斯读书俱乐部，只是进行到一半就停止了。

Why did it stop?

为什么停了？

I’m not sure I remember.

我不确定我是否还记得。

I was happy with it.

我很高兴。

The comments section on those posts was often quite good.

这些帖子的评论部分通常都非常好。

It stopped at chapter 12, and your last post is basically a long quote of an excerpt of the chapter.

它停在第 12 章，你的上一篇文章基本上是该章摘录的长引用。

Then you say, “A lot of insights in here.” COWEN: Chapter 12 is the best chapter of The General Theory.

然后你说：“这里有很多见解。” COWEN：第 12 章是《通论》中最好的一章。

Maybe I just felt it would be going downhill.

也许我只是觉得它会走下坡路。

Okay.

好的。

Not a satisfactory —

不太令人满意 —

I feel like I’m the only one in the world who’s wondering.

我觉得我是世界上唯一一个好奇的人。

I was participating at the time, and to me, it just ended.

我当时正在参加，对我来说，它就结束了。

And it was never spoken of again.

此后再也没有被提起过。

Maybe 13 will be coming soon.

也许13很快就会到来。

Who knows?

谁知道？

All right.

好的。

Why no more book clubs?

为什么不再有读书俱乐部？

The comments section is worse.

评论区更惨了。

I think we’re also not in an era of that many seminal books, so there aren’t books I’m tempted to cover.

我认为我们还没有处在一个有那么多开创性书籍的时代，所以没有什么书是我想涵盖的。

I think there’s a large number of excellent history books coming out, but they don’t make sense for book clubs.

我认为有大量优秀的历史书籍问世，但它们对读书俱乐部来说没有意义。

You need some theory in a book for it to fit into a book club, so that everyone can say something.

一本书需要一些理论才能适合读书俱乐部，这样每个人都可以说些什么。

What do you think is the last book that was even on the level of things like Human Action or the stuff that animated a lot of people in the last century?

你认为最后一本达到《人类行动》或上个世纪激励很多人的东西水平的书是什么？

I feel there was a 15- to 20-year period — maybe starting with Jared Diamond, Guns, Germs, and Steel — where you have at least 30 or 40 books.

我觉得有一个 15 到 20 年的时期——或许从《贾里德·戴蒙德、枪炮、病菌与钢铁》开始——你至少有 30 到 40 本书。

I couldn’t remember which was the last, but things like The Red Queen.

我不记得最后一个是哪一个，但记得像《红皇后》这样的东西。

Selfish Gene.

自私的基因。

Right.

正确的。

Many different — Freakonomics, and everyone had to read all those books to be intellectually literate.

许多不同的“魔鬼经济学”，每个人都必须阅读所有这些书籍才能具有智力素养。

I don’t think we’re in that time anymore.

我认为我们已经不再处于那个时代了。

Yes.

是的。

I’ve definitely found, for myself, having a harder and harder time answering the question, “What’s the most interesting book that you’ve read?”

我确实发现，对我自己来说，回答这个问题越来越困难，“你读过的最有趣的书是什么？”

I just mainly read history, and those are interesting, especially if you read them in clusters or clumps.

我只是主要阅读历史，这些很有趣，特别是如果你成群地阅读它们。

I’ll read about the history of Ireland for six to nine months, but there’s not any single book like, “Oh, you have to read this book.”

我会花六到九个月的时间阅读爱尔兰的历史，但没有任何一本书会像“哦，你必须读这本书”那样。

Do you think we’re just in less of a big-idea age and in more of many-small-ideas age?

您是否认为我们只是处于一个不再是大创意的时代，而是更多地处于许多小创意的时代？

Is there such a thing?

有这样的事吗？

The big ideas are things people do, like large language models, Ethereum, and so on.

大创意是人们所做的事情，比如大型语言模型、以太坊等等。

Those are the big ideas.

这些都是伟大的想法。

They’re fantastic, but they’re not books.

它们很棒，但它们不是书。

In a sense, the books were a poor substitute for the actual big ideas.

从某种意义上说，这些书并不能很好地替代实际的伟大想法。

That’s the way I look at it.

我就是这么看的。

I’d rather have the big ideas.

我宁愿有伟大的想法。

If superconductivity comes through, how many books is that worth?

如果超导得以实现，那值多少本书？

For a long time, you’ve made the claim that you’ve never missed a day of posting at Marginal Revolution.

很长一段时间以来，你一直声称自己从未错过过在《边际革命》上发帖的一天。

It’s not a claim.

这不是一个主张。

It’s a fact, please.

这是事实，拜托。

No. I’ve often wondered if anyone checked that factual.

不，我经常想知道是否有人检查过这一事实。

I’ve checked.

我查过了。

Well, I’ve checked too, and it’s not true.

嗯，我也查过了，这不是真的。

What?

什么？

Alex, your first post was on August 21st.

Alex，你的第一篇文章是在 8 月 21 日。

There was no post on August 22nd.

8月22日没有任何帖子。

Tyler, you hadn’t started yet, so maybe you can still keep this claim.

泰勒，你还没有开始，所以也许你仍然可以保留这个主张。

But there is one day that I’ve only been able to find, where there was no MR post.

但我只找到了一天，那里没有 MR 职位。

Have there been any close calls, like, plane got delayed, it’s 11:50 p.m., a post hasn’t gone up?

是否有过类似的情况，比如飞机晚点了，已经晚上 11 点 50 分了，帖子还没上来？

Or is the scheduling function —

或者是调度函数 —

No.

不。

This is what scheduling is for.

这就是调度的目的。

It’s not actually a thing that we try.

这实际上不是我们尝试的事情。

I’ve evolved into trying, but I just have had a lot to say.

我已经开始尝试，但我还有很多话要说。

It’s just Tyler’s natural pace.

这只是泰勒的自然节奏。

You wrote the first post on the 21st, and then, Tyler, you just started two days later.

你在 21 号写了第一篇文章，然后，泰勒，两天后你才开始写。

Do you have any memory of why Alex started first or there was the two-day delay?

您还记得为什么亚历克斯先开始或延迟了两天吗？

We were doing all these practice posts, thinking no one would read them and we would just get up to speed.

我们正在做所有这些练习帖子，认为没有人会阅读它们，我们只需加快速度即可。

Then we learned, people were writing us like, “Oh, loved your post.”

然后我们了解到，人们给我们写信说：“哦，喜欢你的帖子。”

Wondering, oh, what did we say yesterday?

想知道，哦，我们昨天说了什么？

You have also to understand, Tyler is not that good at technology.

你也必须明白，泰勒并不擅长技术。

It’s an understatement.

这是轻描淡写的说法。

I set the blog up, right?

我建立了博客，对吗？

Then I had to, “Here’s your password, Tyler.

然后我不得不说：“这是你的密码，泰勒。

Here’s how you post.” It took Tyler a week or two before he really hit stride.

这就是你发帖的方式。”泰勒花了一两周的时间才真正大踏步前进。

No, I still come to Alex with very simple questions.

不，我仍然带着非常简单的问题来找亚历克斯。

“How does this work?”

“这是如何运作的？”

Yet at the same time, you’ve been a more active user of Chat GPT than probably the great majority of other people.

但与此同时，您可能是比大多数其他人更活跃的 Chat GPT 用户。

I don’t think I’m good at the technological side of it.

我认为我不擅长技术方面。

The conceptual side, maybe there are things I grasp because of my background in the humanities.

概念方面，可能因为我是人文学科的背景，所以我掌握了一些东西。

That would be it.

就这样了。

Let’s move to probably the last official segment of the conversation, but this is the recurring segments and memes of Marginal Revolution.

让我们转到对话的最后一个正式部分，但这是《边际革命》中反复出现的部分和模因。

I’ll throw out a few that I’ve noticed, and Vitalik and Ben, you can jump in with any you know.

我将列出一些我注意到的内容，Vitalik 和 Ben，你们可以加入任何你们知道的内容。

But throughout the history of the blog, there’ve been these recurring things.

但纵观博客的历史，这些事情一直反复出现。

“The best sentence I read today.” A very early one, “Claims my Russian wife laughs at.” I don’t know if you remember that sentence.

“我今天读到的最好的一句话。”很早的一篇，“声称我的俄罗斯妻子嘲笑我。”不知道你还记不记得这句话。

She won’t let me call her Russian anymore.

她不会再让我叫她俄罗斯人了。

That’s one reason that one disappeared.

这就是其中一个失踪的原因之一。

“Sentences to ponder,” “Shout it from the rooftops,” pictures of puffins.

“值得思考的句子”、“从屋顶上喊出来”、海雀的照片。

That’s fair.

这很公平。

Yes, it’s tough.

是的，这很难。

But also, to be fair, to have the top posts — which I don’t always do by any means — that’s not necessarily a good thing.

但公平地说，拥有最高职位 ——“我并不总是这样做”—— 这不一定是一件好事。

That goes back to “If you understand the post and you hate it, it’s an Alex post.” Those tend to get a lot of comments.

这可以追溯到“如果你理解这篇文章并且你讨厌它，那么它就是亚历克斯的帖子。”这些往往会得到很多评论。

I think one of my favorite points of levity in MR is when, I think, Tyler, you once wrote a post after all these assorted links, of course, which is a standby on the blog.

我认为 MR 中我最喜欢的轻浮点之一是，泰勒，你曾经在所有这些各种各样的链接之后写了一篇文章，当然，这是博客上的备用。

One day, you just did “Assorted link,” and the whole post was just №1 with a link.

有一天，你刚刚做了“分类链接”，整个帖子就只是带有链接的第一名。

It was like, what a clever reversal.

这就像，多么聪明的逆转。

He lives in the attic, Tyrone.

他住在阁楼里，蒂龙。

There hasn’t been that much Tyrone in the last six or seven years.

在过去的六七年里，蒂龙的表现并不多。

I think the reason for that is, the real world itself has become so weird and bizarre that what is a Tyrone post or what is funny in a Tyrone post — it’s changed, and it’s somehow more tragic.

我认为原因是，现实世界本身已经变得如此奇怪和离奇，以至于什么是蒂龙帖子或蒂龙帖子中有趣的东西 ——它已经改变了，而且在某种程度上更加悲惨。

For the uninitiated, Tyrone’s worldview or essential style is what?

对于外行来说，蒂龙的世界观或基本风格是什么？

For those who haven’t been part of the blog for a long time, they’ve heard about Tyrone only in the abstract.

对于那些很久没有加入博客的人来说，他们只是抽象地听说过蒂龙。

How would you characterize his — ?

你会如何形容他的 — ？

I’m so close to Tyrone, I think we have to let Alex answer that question.

我和蒂龙的关系非常密切，我想我们必须让亚历克斯回答这个问题。

I will say Tyrone will come to lunch, but he never announces himself.

我会说蒂龙会来吃午饭，但他从未宣布自己会来。

The way that Tyrone operates is, he will say something outrageous, and then everyone at the lunch conversation will try, and (I would argue) overcome, and they will give a lot of good arguments for this.

蒂龙的运作方式是，他会说一些离谱的话，然后午餐谈话中的每个人都会尝试，并且（我认为）克服，他们会为此提出很多很好的论据。

It’s very disturbing because then you go home and you think, “Oh my God, I noticed that’s on my mind.

这非常令人不安，因为当你回到家时，你会想：“天哪，我注意到我心里有这个想法。

What was right seems totally wrong, and yet the arguments seem logically correct.”

正确的事情似乎完全错误，但这些论点在逻辑上似乎是正确的。”

My father wanted to name me Tyrone.

我父亲想给我起名叫蒂龙。

That’s where the name comes from.

这就是名字的由来。

My mother refused.

我妈妈拒绝了。

She’s like, “Tyrone — that’s a terrible name.” She held firm.

她就像，“蒂龙 ——这是一个可怕的名字。”她坚定不移。

I became Tyler, but it’s some kind of modal realism in the David Lewis sense.

我变成了泰勒，但这是大卫刘易斯意义上的某种模态现实主义。

Every now and then, readers should be allowed to peek behind that curtain.

时不时地，应该允许读者窥视幕布后面。

We should all, I suppose, reflect in ourselves at this moment, who is our inner Tyrone and how do we get in touch with our shadow?

我想，此时此刻，我们都应该反省一下自己，谁是我们内心的泰隆，我们如何去接触自己的影子？

That’s right.

这是正确的。

That’s part of the point of the posts.

这是帖子要点的一部分。

It’s actually a tool from, I think, maybe cognitive behavioral therapy to give your negative thoughts a name and say, “Oh, that’s Tyrone talking.

我认为，这实际上是一种来自认知行为疗法的工具，可以给你的消极想法命名，然后说：“哦，那是蒂龙在说话。

That’s not Jeff.’ Maybe I’ll steal yours.

那不是杰夫。”也许我会偷你的。

I feel like Straussianism kind of is a meme in itself.

我觉得施特劳斯主义本身就是一种模因。

But I think a lot of people misread that.

但我认为很多人都误读了这一点。

I feel I’ve expressed forthright opinions on more topics, possibly, than any economist ever.

我觉得我所表达的直率观点可能比任何经济学家都多。

It is true that when I write a post, I never or hardly ever explain the references or give links.

确实，当我写一篇文章时，我从不或几乎从不解释参考文献或提供链接。

It’s super informationally dense.

它的信息量非常大。

Partly, doing so bores me; partly, to mess with people’s minds a bit, but if they know all the references, it’s actually crystal clear.

部分原因是这样做让我感到无聊；部分原因是为了扰乱人们的思维，但如果他们知道所有的参考文献，那么事情实际上就一目了然了。

Some general questions to close.

一些需要关闭的一般性问题。

How much time per week, right now, do each of you spend directly writing, thinking about the blog?

现在，你们每个人每周花多少时间直接写作、思考博客？

All of it.

所有这一切。

But, look, writing it takes way less time than people think.

但是，看，写它所花费的时间比人们想象的要少得多。

Way less.

少得多。

All right, let’s say just writing.

好吧，就说只是写吧。

Just actually crafting the posts, getting them ready to go.

只是实际制作帖子，让它们做好准备。

I don’t know, two hours a day?

不知道，每天两个小时？

When I write, it does take some time because, I think, especially when you have a lot of readers and you think, “Well, if I can save a reader a few seconds of time,” and you do the expected altruism calculation, where “We’ve got thousands of readers, so if a minute for me saves them hours — “

当我写作时，确实需要一些时间，因为我认为，尤其是当你有很多读者时，你会想，“好吧，如果我可以为读者节省几秒钟的时间”，然后你进行预期的利他主义计算，其中“我们有成千上万的读者，所以如果我的一分钟可以为他们节省几个小时  -  ”

I don’t do that, by the way.

顺便说一句，我不这样做。

Yes, Tyler just likes to get it down.

是的，泰勒只是喜欢把它记下来。

As your audience has grown, do the stakes seem higher?

随着观众的增加，赌注似乎更高吗？

Are you going to spend more time thinking and reviewing posts, perhaps even self-censoring, like, “Gosh, in the old days I would’ve published this, but now that I’ve got all these influential readers, I can’t just — ”

你是否会花更多的时间思考和审查帖子，甚至可能进行自我审查，比如，“天哪，在过去我会发表这篇文章，但现在我已经拥有了所有这些有影响力的读者，我不能只是 - ”

You’ve got to resist that.

你必须抵制这一点。

There are a few recent times where I did resist that, and I’m glad I did.

最近有几次我确实抵制了这一点，我很高兴我做到了。

For me, a key thing is, can you ever sit there and still giggle?

对我来说，关键是，你能坐在那里仍然咯咯笑吗？

If that disappears, I feel I’m doing something wrong.

如果这种情况消失了，我就会觉得我做错了什么。

But I definitely can still sit there and giggle.

但我绝对可以坐在那里咯咯笑。

Yes, I wouldn’t say we self-censor.

是的，我不会说我们自我审查。

I don’t feel I self-censor, except in the following sense.

我不觉得我有自我审查，除了以下意义上的。

There are a bunch of topics that I think the world just does not need to know my opinion, right?

有很多话题我认为世界不需要知道我的观点，对吧？

It wouldn’t be useful for them, wouldn’t be useful for me, so why bother?

这对他们没有用，对我也没有用，那为什么还要麻烦呢？

There are things like that.

有这样的事情。

And what do you think about this topic?

您对这个话题有何看法？

I’ll tell you.

我告诉你。

The floor is yours.

地板是你的。

I’ve had good offers or potential offers.

我收到了很好的报价或潜在的报价。

But support for what I’m doing, great people to work with — Alex most of all, but not only — everyone at Mercatus.

但支持我正在做的事情，与伟大的人一起工作 ——最重要的是亚历克斯，但不仅仅是 —— Mercatus 的每个人。

Where it is, I think it’s the best location in the United States to be for a number of reasons.

出于多种原因，我认为它是美国最好的地点。

At least for me, it’s been great.

至少对我来说，这已经很棒了。

I go to economics conferences, and you go hear some talks, and they’re often boring.

我去参加经济会议，你去听一些演讲，它们通常很无聊。

It’s bizarre, but I find myself — I want to go hear Tyler’s talk or Robin Hanson’s talk or Bryan Caplan’s.

这很奇怪，但我发现自己 — 我想听听泰勒的演讲、罗宾·汉森的演讲或布莱恩·卡普兰的演讲。

I can speak to these guys every day.

我每天都可以和这些人交谈。

Why would I possibly do this?

为什么我可能会这样做？

Yet it often turns out they’re the most interesting people on the agenda.

但事实证明，他们往往是议程上最有趣的人。

We never get sick of it.

我们永远不会厌倦它。

George Mason’s a good school for free speech, definitely.

乔治梅森大学绝对是一所言论自由的好学校。

Yes, we feel supported there.

是的，我们感到那里得到了支持。

What are the types of blog posts that you think have generated the most impact in the sense of cultural resonance or influence?

您认为哪些类型的博客文章在文化共鸣或影响力方面产生了最大的影响？

Are they the very prescriptive policy things?

它们是非常规范的政策吗？

Are they the philosophical treatises?

它们是哲学论文吗？

What do you think?

你觉得怎么样？

Is it one post, or is it actually more of the chorus?

这是一篇文章，还是实际上更多的是合唱？

It’s very hard to know, but two things I would say.

这很难知道，但我会说两件事。

One is my post on state capacity libertarianism, which is still a good statement of where I am philosophically.

其中之一是我关于国家能力自由主义的帖子，这仍然是我的哲学立场的一个很好的陈述。

I think that’s held up well.

我认为这一点保持得很好。

When I coined the term, that’s a case where I was sitting there, giggling, “Oh, this term is so absurd.

当我创造这个词的时候，我就坐在那里咯咯笑，“哦，这个词太荒谬了。

No one will ever use it, so it’s just right.” People still use it.

没有人会使用它，所以这是正确的。”人们仍然使用它。

We try and either increase the Overton window or try and stop the Overton window from shutting down.

我们尝试要么增加奥弗顿窗口，要么尝试阻止奥弗顿窗口关闭。

I think some of the COVID posts, like on First Doses First and things like that — even though in the United States, we didn’t do First Doses First, Britain and Canada did.

我认为一些关于新冠肺炎的帖子，比如“首先接种第一剂”之类的事情 ——尽管在美国，我们没有首先接种第一剂，但英国和加拿大做到了。

Hopefully, I may have had some influence there.

希望我能在那里产生一些影响。

But what I think is interesting is that when we did Monkeypox, CDC went along with First Doses First for Monkeypox.

但我认为有趣的是，当我们进行猴痘治疗时，CDC 同意先注射猴痘疫苗。

On First Doses First, there was a major decision-maker from an actual country who just sent me a message, ‘‘Hey, do you guys really mean this?’’ I said, “Yes.” The next day it happened.

关于第一剂疫苗，首先，有一位来自实际国家的主要决策者刚刚给我发了一条消息，“嘿，你们真的是这个意思吗？”我说：“是的。”第二天，事情就发生了。

No, I’m not saying it happened because of that only thing, but people are really listening, to an extent that it’s scary sometimes.

不，我并不是说这件事的发生只是因为那件事，但人们确实在倾听，有时甚至很可怕。

I think there are two vectors of influence from MR. One is the specific, Jeff, posts, the specific ideas you’ve put forth in the world that had real impact.

我认为 MR 的影响有两个方向。一是具体的，杰夫，帖子，你在世界上提出的具有真正影响力的具体想法。

But there’s another vector of influence, which I think is more subtle but is probably how I would identify being influenced, because if you asked me what are the five posts that have most influenced me, I probably couldn’t tell you the five.

但还有另一种影响力，我认为它更微妙，但可能是我识别受到影响的方式，因为如果你问我对我影响最大的五个帖子是什么，我可能无法告诉你这五个。

But there’s this general mood, a temperament, an approach to the world, a way of thinking about ideas.

但有一种总体情绪、一种气质、一种对待世界的方式、一种思考想法的方式。

Before I close, Vitalik, any general questions you had?

在我结束之前，Vitalik，您还有什么一般性问题吗？

Other things you’re curious about?

您还好奇其他事情吗？

How did it happen that the two of you are on the same blog, and Bryan and Robin are off in their separate playgrounds?

你们两个在同一个博客上，而布莱恩和罗宾却在各自的游乐场里，这是怎么发生的？

Could things have ended up differently?

事情会有不同的结局吗？

I can speak to that.

我可以谈谈。

This is the origin story of MR. Correct me if I’m getting anything wrong, but Alex came into my office one day, and he said, “We ought to write a textbook.” And I said something like, “That’s a great idea, Alex, but first we need to write a blog and become much better known, and then we’ll write a textbook.” Without Alex, I wouldn’t have done it.

这就是MR的起源故事。如果我有任何错误，请纠正我，但有一天亚历克斯走进我的办公室，他说：“我们应该写一本教科书。”我说了这样的话，“这是个好主意，亚历克斯，但首先我们需要写一个博客并变得更出名，然后我们会写一本教科书。”没有亚历克斯，我就不会做到这一点。

Yes, I think that’s it.

是的，我想就是这样。

We both have pluralist ways of thinking in a slightly different way.

我们都有多元化的思维方式，但方式略有不同。

That’s why I agree with that.

这就是为什么我同意这一点。

It’s worked well for the blog.

这对于博客来说效果很好。

Tyler is obviously posting every day, and I’m giving people a little bit more of the red meat, which keeps it coming back as well.

泰勒显然每天都会发帖，我给人们提供了更多的红肉，这也让他们回来了。

We’ve done the book.

我们已经完成了这本书。

We’ve done Marginal Revolution University together.

我们一起完成了《边缘革命大学》。

So, we have a long history of projects which have come out pretty good.

因此，我们有着悠久的项目历史，并且取得了不错的成果。

We’ve worked together now 33 years, I believe, well before MR. Keep that in mind.

我相信，我们已经合作了 33 年，远早于 MR。请记住这一点。

We wrote a whole bunch of papers together.

我们一起写了一大堆论文。

What would be the reason to end Marginal Revolution?

结束边际革命的原因是什么？

Death, senility.

死亡、衰老。

Not superconductivity, though.

但不是超导。

Would senility actually end Marginal Revolution?

衰老真的会结束边际革命吗？

I guess a sufficient amount of it would.

我想只要有足够的量就可以了。

Well, you could take away the keys from me, Jeff, and from Alex.

好吧，你可以把我、杰夫和亚历克斯的钥匙拿走。

Okay.

好的。

The responsibility lies in my hands.

责任在我手里。

Congratulations on entering your third decade of Marginal Revolution.

恭喜您进入边际革命的第三个十年。

I think I speak for Ben and Vitalik and myself, and all the readers, that we look forward to continue reading and hearing your ideas and seeing your influence in the world.

我想我代表 Ben 和 Vitalik 以及我自己以及所有读者，我们期待继续阅读和听到您的想法并看到您对世界的影响。

Thank you, Alex.

谢谢你，亚历克斯。

Thank you, Tyler.

谢谢你，泰勒。

Thank you, Ben, Vitalik, and thank you all for listening.

谢谢 Ben、Vitalik，也谢谢大家的聆听。

Let’s see another 20 years.

让我们再看看20年。

Thank you.

谢谢你。

Thank you.

谢谢你。