Marc Rowan on Financial Market Evolution and University Governance (Ep. 205)
Special thanks to listener Tiago de Vassal for sponsoring this transcript.
特别感谢听众 Tiago de Vassal 赞助这份文字记录。
Tiago is launching The Francophile Podcast, a podcast where he invites thinkers to share how their work relates to France (good and bad).
蒂亚戈正在推出“亲法播客”，他邀请思想家分享他们的作品与法国的关系（好的和坏的）。
His goal is to make it as interesting as Conversations with Tyler.
他的目标是让它像《与泰勒对话》一样有趣。
Interviews will be in French and English.
面试将使用法语和英语。
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today I’m talking with Marc Rowan, who is co-founder and now CEO of Apollo Global Management.
今天我要采访的是阿波罗全球管理公司的联合创始人兼现任首席执行官马克·罗文 (Marc Rowan)。
Marc also has been leading a campaign to reform and improve American higher education.
马克还一直在领导一场改革和改善美国高等教育的运动。
Marc, welcome.
马克，欢迎。
Thank you so much.
太感谢了。
While I do lots of interviews, this is actually my first podcast.
虽然我做了很多采访，但这实际上是我的第一个播客。
You said recently on Bloomberg that higher interest rates don’t hurt the profitability of Apollo.
您最近在彭博社表示，更高的利率不会损害阿波罗的盈利能力。
How do you think about that in terms of your portfolio or what you do?
您如何看待您的投资组合或您所做的事情？
How do you manage to be in that position?
你是如何做到这个位置的？
I think globally about the shape of our business.
我从全球角度思考我们的业务形态。
We are today a $650 billion asset manager.
今天，我们是一家价值 6500 亿美元的资产管理公司。
Roughly $500 billion of that is credit, and $150 billion of that are various forms of equity.
其中大约 5000 亿美元是信贷，其中 1500 亿美元是各种形式的股权。
Quite frankly, it’s just math.
坦率地说，这只是数学。
We do better on the $500 billion when rates are higher, up to the point that you have economic distress.
当利率更高时，我们在 5000 亿美元上做得更好，直到你陷入经济困境。
Most of our equity — they are pretty savvy about how they borrow and how they lock in interest rates and using fixed-rate and other hedging instruments, so generally, we have upside to the level of interest rates.
我们的大部分股权——他们对如何借贷、如何锁定利率以及如何使用固定利率和其他对冲工具非常了解，所以总的来说，我们的利率水平有上升的空间。
But how is it you manage to do maturity matching so much better than, say, alternative institutions?
但你们是如何做到比其他机构更好地进行期限匹配的呢？
I’m not sure it’s better.
我不确定这是否更好。
I think you have to look at the structure of our business.
我认为你必须看看我们的业务结构。
I assume by other institutions, you’re really talking about the banking sector.
我认为其他机构实际上是在谈论银行业。
Sure, which was bigger before the rise of private asset management.
当然，在私人资产管理兴起之前，这个规模更大。
Well, yes and no. Private asset management has not caused the decline of the banking system.
嗯，是的，也不是。私人资产管理并没有造成银行体系的衰落。
The banking system has been shrinking in the US as a percentage of the total — while it’s been growing — for a very long time.
美国银行体系占总银行体系的比例一直在萎缩——同时它在很长一段时间内一直在增长。
Just to set levels, the banking system today is roughly 20 percent of corporate and consumer credit in the US.
就设定水平而言，如今银行系统约占美国企业和消费者信贷的 20%。
The rest of it is not “private credit”; it’s investors.
其余的都不是“私人信贷”；是投资者。
If you think about it at a very macro level — regulators, governments.
如果你从非常宏观的层面来考虑——监管者、政府。
There are really only two choices for credit.
信贷实际上只有两种选择。
You can have credit come from the banking system, or you can have credit come from the investment marketplace.
您可以从银行系统获得信贷，也可以从投资市场获得信贷。
Now, to your question: if you think about the banking system, the banking system borrows short and lends long.
现在，回答你的问题：如果你考虑一下银行系统，银行系统会借入短期资金并贷出长期资金。
They are always mismatched.
他们总是不匹配。
If you think about what we do — different than many — half of our money comes from individuals and institutions who are seeking a rate of return.
如果你想想我们所做的事情——“与许多人不同”——“我们一半的资金来自寻求回报率的个人和机构。
They have no maturity; they have no defined outcome that they want.
他们不成熟；他们没有明确想要的结果。
Therefore, they are willing to commit their money for lengthy periods of time so long as they are obtaining the right risk and reward.
因此，只要获得适当的风险和回报，他们愿意长期投入资金。
And they are not focused on day-to-day liquidity; they’re focused on the ultimate return for this piece of their portfolio.
他们并不关注日常流动性；而是关注日常流动性。他们专注于这部分投资组合的最终回报。
The other half of our money comes from the insurance industry, including our own affiliated insurer, Athene, and money we manage for Athora, our European affiliate, as well as a number of third-party insurers.
我们的另一半资金来自保险业，包括我们自己的附属保险公司 Athene，以及我们为我们的欧洲附属公司 Athora 以及许多第三方保险公司管理的资金。
Insurers, unlike the banking system — they borrow long and lend long, and everything, therefore, is asset matched.
与银行系统不同，保险公司长期借贷，因此一切都是资产匹配的。
If you look at Apollo today, there is nothing that is daily redeemable.
如果你看看今天的阿波罗，就会发现没有什么是可以每天兑换的。
There’s a traditional history of insurance companies suffering from some kind of duration risk in the 1990s.
保险公司在 20 世纪 90 年代就曾遭受某种久期风险的困扰。
How is it that Athene, Apollo avoids that?
雅典娜、阿波罗怎么能避免这种情况呢？
What is it you do that’s different?
你做了什么与众不同的事情？
Jumping around, insurance — you have to really look at it over a long period of time.
跳来跳去，保险 ——你必须真正长期地审视它。
Almost all of the problems that have come in the insurance industry of any scale for 100 years have come from traditional companies who have made poor choices as to their liabilities.
100年来，无论规模大小的保险业出现的几乎所有问题都来自传统公司在负债方面做出的错误选择。
We spend a lot of time today talking about assets, but most poor decisions have come from liabilities.
今天我们花了很多时间谈论资产，但大多数糟糕的决策都来自负债。
Think about people who reinsured asbestos risk.
想想那些为石棉风险再投保的人。
Think about people who provided D&O insurance to the Enrons and others of the world.
想想那些为安然公司和世界其他人提供 D&O 保险的人。
Think about people who insured Japanese earthquake and meltdown risk.
想想那些为日本地震和熔毁风险投保的人。
Think about all of the mispricing in financial markets, whether it’s what GE did on long-term health care, or it’s what many companies did on variable annuity.
想想金融市场上所有的错误定价，无论是通用电气在长期医疗保健方面的做法，还是许多公司在可变年金方面的做法。
These are liability problems.
这些都是责任问题。
The asset problems in the insurance industry have actually been quite modest over a really long period of time.
事实上，长期以来，保险业的资产问题一直相当温和。
You have executive life, you have mutual benefit, and then you have a large number of small companies that add up to essentially nothing.
你有高管生活，你有互惠互利，然后你有大量的小公司，加起来基本上一文不值。
Assets have not traditionally been a weak spot for the insurance industry; it’s been liabilities.
传统上，资产并不是保险业的弱点。这是负债。
On insuring retirement
关于退休保障
What’s the source of your comparative advantage in making better liability choices than, say, older-school insurance companies?
您比老派保险公司做出更好的责任选择的比较优势的来源是什么？
Where does that come from?
这是从哪里来的？
Well, it comes from a very simple business model.
嗯，它来自一个非常简单的商业模式。
We are, at Athene, in one business.
在雅典娜，我们从事一项事业。
We’re in the business of retirement services, and therefore, we don’t guarantee or don’t insure your life, we don’t insure your health, we don’t insure your home, we don’t insure your automobile or any other form of catastrophe.
我们从事退休服务业务，因此，我们不保证或不为您的生命提供保险，我们不为您的健康提供保险，我们不为您的房屋提供保险，我们不为您的汽车或任何其他形式的灾难提供保险。
We simply insure your retirement, and we do that through annuities, and we do that through pension.
我们只是为您的退休提供保险，我们通过年金来做到这一点，我们通过养老金来做到这一点。
Those simple liabilities are locked in, and they are essentially a means for individuals to save.
这些简单的负债被锁定，它们本质上是个人储蓄的一种手段。
We have a retirement crisis in this country.
我们这个国家面临着退休危机。
People have not saved enough, Social Security is unlikely to provide a good standard of living for the vast majority of people, and so we also have a system that encourages retirement savings.
人们储蓄不够，社会保障不太可能为绝大多数人提供良好的生活水平，所以我们还有一个鼓励退休储蓄的制度。
Retirement savings and insurance products are tax-free.
退休储蓄和保险产品免税。
They build up tax-free, and someone commits to these policies for 5, 10, 15, 20 years.
他们建立了免税政策，并且有人承诺这些政策的有效期为 5 年、10 年、15 年、20 年。
At the end of that, they have tax-free compounding at nice rates of return.
最后，他们以不错的回报率获得免税复利。
Given that so few other institutions seem interested in addressing this problem of retirement risks, what’s the source of the comparative advantage that allows Apollo to do it, make money doing so, apparently be stable?
鉴于很少有其他机构对解决退休风险问题感兴趣，那么阿波罗能够做到这一点、通过这样做赚钱、而且显然是稳定的比较优势的来源是什么？
How do the pieces fit together?
这些部分如何组合在一起？
Where’s the so-called free lunch coming from?
所谓的免费午餐从何而来？
Is it your talent?
是你的天赋吗？
Is it the building you bought, or what is it?
是你买的那栋楼，还是什么？
I assure you, it’s not my talent.
我向你保证，这不是我的天赋。
I’m fortunate that nearly 10,000 people make me look good — most days, not every day, but most days.
我很幸运，有近 10,000 个人让我看起来很好 —— 大多数日子，不是每天，而是大多数日子。
If you think about our industry, in our industry, you need four things to be successful.
如果你想想我们的行业，在我们的行业中，你需要四件事才能成功。
The easiest of those things is capital.
其中最简单的就是资本。
If you are a responsible investor, and you sell investors on a long-term business plan, you should be able to raise capital.
如果您是负责任的投资者，并且您向投资者出售长期商业计划，您应该能够筹集资金。
But if you look at our industry, the public companies in the retirement services business over the last decade have raised virtually no capital.
但如果你看看我们的行业，过去十年里退休服务行业的上市公司几乎没有筹集到任何资金。
Fundamentally, investors have decided they do not trust the public companies as good stewards of capital, and in fact, the vast majority of these companies have paid out their current book value as dividends over the last decade.
从根本上说，投资者已经决定不相信上市公司是良好的资本管理者，事实上，这些公司中的绝大多数在过去十年中都以股息的形式支付了当前的账面价值。
I start with, well, capital should be easy.
我首先说，资本应该很容易。
Capital for this industry is actually quite hard, and so we showed up in 2008 with capital.
这个行业的资本其实是比较难的，所以我们2008年就带着资本出现了。
That doesn’t guarantee you’ll be successful.
这并不能保证你会成功。
The next piece is, you need long-term low-cost liabilities.
下一个是，你需要长期的低成本负债。
Initially, as a start-up company in 2008, we had no right to participate in this market, but 2008 was a very tumultuous period of time.
最初，作为2008年的一家初创公司，我们没有权利参与这个市场，但2008年是一个非常动荡的时期。
Lots of companies were looking to get back to their “home market,” and people were selling off old blocks of business.
许多公司都希望重返“本土市场”，人们正在出售旧的业务。
We bought old blocks of business, and we did it successfully and got to scale, and we acquired a large amount of low-cost business.
我们收购了旧的业务，我们成功地做到了这一点，并扩大了规模，我们获得了大量低成本业务。
Today, that same opportunity, by the way, is no longer available because there are not big blocks for sale.
顺便说一句，今天，同样的机会不再可用，因为没有大块土地可供出售。
The interest-rate environment is different.
利率环境不同。
There’s not the same tumultuous need to sell.
没有同样激烈的销售需求。
So, we are now the largest originator, organic originator — the sale of new products through traditional channels in the retirement business.
所以，我们现在是退休业务中最大的发起者，有机发起者 ——通过传统渠道销售新产品。
Last year, we did some $60-plus billion.
去年，我们的投资额约为 60 多亿美元。
This year, we’re projected to do $70-plus billion just in the US.
今年，我们预计仅在美国的销售额就将超过 700 亿美元。
This is a big market if you get it right.
如果你做得对的话，这是一个很大的市场。
So, long-term, low-cost liabilities that are predictable that you can invest against.
因此，您可以投资可预测的长期、低成本负债。
Third, you need a scaled low-cost operating infrastructure.
第三，您需要规模化的低成本运营基础设施。
Even though we are not the largest insurer, we are the largest retirement services company.
尽管我们不是最大的保险公司，但我们是最大的退休服务公司。
We focus on one product segment.
我们专注于一个产品领域。
You look at other big insurers — they have diverse operations.
你看看其他大型保险公司——他们拥有多元化的业务。
In some cases, they don’t have scale in any of their businesses, even though they are quite large.
在某些情况下，他们的任何业务都没有规模，尽管它们规模相当大。
We are, as one product based in Iowa, really efficient, very low cost, and that allows us to make money.
作为一种总部位于爱荷华州的产品，我们非常高效，成本非常低，这使我们能够赚钱。
The other thing that you need to be successful: an insurance company, a retirement services company needs to both be and appear to be and project solvency.
想要成功还需要做的另一件事是：一家保险公司、一家退休服务公司需要并且看起来有偿付能力。
Regulatorily, you need solvency.
从监管角度来说，你需要偿付能力。
Rating agencies — you need solvency.
评级机构 — 你需要偿付能力。
And if you’re backing 20-year promises, you need solvency.
如果你要兑现 20 年的承诺，你就需要偿付能力。
You need lots of low-cost, lower-risk, higher-yielding assets.
你需要大量低成本、低风险、高收益的资产。
We have become, at Apollo, experts in originating these higher-quality, higher-yielding assets, so-called private credit, and have been successful in originating them to the benefit of Athene and others in the insurance industry.
在阿波罗，我们已经成为创造这些更高质量、更高收益的资产（即所谓的私人信贷）的专家，并成功地创造了这些资产，使雅典娜和保险行业的其他人受益。
On private credit and liquidity
关于私人信贷和流动性
How did the macroeconomics of this new world work?
这个新世界的宏观经济是如何运作的？
If you don’t have much maturity-matching risk, you’re relatively insensitive to where interest rates are moving.
如果您没有太大的期限匹配风险，那么您对利率走势相对不敏感。
If the Fed is controlling interest rates, say, to disinflate or for any other reason, it seems that matters much less than it used to.
如果美联储控制利率是为了抑制通货膨胀或出于任何其他原因，那么这一点似乎就没有以前那么重要了。
Do you agree?
你同意？
To us, yes, it matters much less than it used to.
是的，对我们来说，它的重要性比以前要小得多。
We run, in our retirement services business, a spread business, and in that spread business, the absolute level of rates is not all that important.
我们在退休服务业务中经营利差业务，在该利差业务中，利率的绝对水平并不那么重要。
What matters is that we are able to earn a spread on our assets versus our liabilities, versus our cost of operations, such that we are profitable and, therefore, can attract new capital, retain the capital we have, and provide investors with a reason to invest with us for the long term.
重要的是，我们能够在资产与负债、运营成本之间赚取利差，从而实现盈利，从而吸引新资本，保留我们拥有的资本，并为投资者提供长期投资于我们的理由。
But say more and more of the economy goes into relatively successful private credit.
但可以说，越来越多的经济投入到相对成功的私人信贷中。
Doesn’t the Fed have to raise interest rates all the more?
美联储不是必须加息吗？
Because there’s no impact or no major impact on your lending and the lending of your peers, but there are still some banks out there, 20 percent.
因为对你的贷款和同行的贷款没有影响或者没有重大影响，但是仍然有一些银行在那里，20%。
To get those banks to respond, does monetary policy become tougher and tougher to pull off?
为了让这些银行做出反应，货币政策是否会变得越来越难实施？
How do you think about this?
您对此有何看法？
I think it has become tougher and tougher to pull off.
我认为实现这一目标已经变得越来越难。
I think that to the extent we lived in a world where banks were 100 percent of the credit market, there was a very direct relationship between Fed action now and what happened in the economy.
我认为，就我们生活在一个银行 100% 占据信贷市场的世界而言，美联储现在的行动与经济中发生的情况之间存在非常直接的关系。
To the extent 80 percent of credit is now provided by investors — forget about private credit for the moment — but by investors, there is a less direct but still incredibly important because the alternatives, as rates go up, credit becomes more attractive to investors versus equities.
目前 80% 的信贷是由投资者提供的——“暂时忘记私人信贷”——但对于投资者来说，虽然不那么直接，但仍然非常重要，因为随着利率上升，信贷对投资者的吸引力比股票更有吸引力。
As rates go down, the reverse happens.
随着利率下降，情况会发生相反的情况。
There are a lot of abilities still of the Fed to influence outcomes, but it is not the direct correlation that you once had.
美联储仍然有很多影响结果的能力，但这已经不是你曾经拥有的直接相关性了。
I also don’t think of it in just a monolithic way about, “Well, the Fed has less control.” I think about resilient and necessary.
我也不会以一种单一的方式来思考“嗯，美联储的控制力较小”。我认为弹性和必要性。
Those are the words that always come back to me.
这些话总是让我想起。
I look at the US.
我看美国。
Relative to almost every other big capital market, the US is in an extraordinary position, and that is, in my opinion, reflective of the diversity of capital sources that we have.
相对于几乎所有其他大型资本市场，美国处于非凡的地位，在我看来，这反映了我们拥有的资本来源的多样性。
No other place in the world really has what we have.
世界上没有其他地方真正拥有我们所拥有的东西。
If you look at almost every Asian economy — two products, equity and bank debt.
如果你观察几乎所有亚洲经济体，就会发现两种产品：股票和银行债务。
Look at Europe — equity and bank debt.
看看欧洲——股票和银行债务。
Yes, there’s the beginnings of a fixed-income market.
是的，固定收益市场已经开始出现。
There’s a high grade, but there is not the diversity of capital sources that you have here.
这里的品位很高，但资本来源并不多样化。
I come back to resilient and necessary.
我又恢复了弹性和必要性。
If the banking system, while really important and not going away and still vital for the country, is borrowed short and lent long, every dollar that moves out of the banking system and into the investment marketplace actually deleverages the entire system.
如果银行体系虽然非常重要，而且不会消失，对国家仍然至关重要，但它是短借长贷，那么从银行体系转移到投资市场的每一美元实际上都会使整个体系去杠杆化。
Think about that.
想想看。
A bank is levered 10 to 12 times.
银行的杠杆率为 10 至 12 倍。
When you move credit out of the banking system into a mutual fund, it’s zero-levered.
当你将信贷从银行系统转移到共同基金时，它是零杠杆的。
But there’s less liquidity in that world, right?
但那个世界的流动性较少，对吧？
Well, let’s talk about liquidity, anyway.
好吧，无论如何，我们来谈谈流动性。
This is one of those things.
这是其中之一。
Yes, it is less liquid, but we’re going through a whole rethink of what liquidity means.
是的，它的流动性较差，但我们正在重新思考流动性的含义。
So, 2008, we had just an unbelievable series of changes that took place in our economy in response to the financial crisis.
因此，2008 年，我们的经济为应对金融危机而发生了一系列令人难以置信的变化。
We essentially redid all of our financial markets, financial regulation.
我们基本上重新调整了所有的金融市场和金融监管。
The problem is, none of us have experienced that yet for any length of time, because right after we changed all the rules, we printed $8 trillion, and everything went up and to the right.
问题是，我们谁都没有经历过这种情况，无论时间长短，因为在我们改变所有规则之后，我们印了 8 万亿美元，一切都上升并向右。
Beginning in ’22, we started to experience the new world, and in ’23 we experienced it more, but we all — myself included — we have a lot to learn about what this new world is.
从22年开始，我们开始体验新世界，23年我们体验得更多，但我们所有人————包括我自己————关于这个新世界是什么，我们还有很多东西需要了解。
But if you just look at the numbers, trading capital — the capital used for market making — is one-tenth, today, of what it was in 2008.
但如果你只看数字，今天的交易资本 ——用于做市的资本 ——是 2008 年的十分之一。
Why has that gone down so much?
为什么下降这么多？
Is that Dodd-Frank partly?
部分是《多德弗兰克法案》吗？
Or what else?
或者还有什么？
That is Dodd-Frank, more than partly.
这在很大程度上就是《多德弗兰克法案》的一部分。
10X effect from Dodd-Frank?
多德弗兰克法案的 10 倍效应？
Trading capital is 10 percent of what it once was.
交易资本是以前的 10%。
We had an incredibly liquid market, and now we have a less liquid public market.
我们有一个流动性极高的市场，而现在我们的公开市场流动性较差。
By the way, we now have public markets that are three times their size.
顺便说一句，我们现在的公共市场是其规模的三倍。
Doesn’t take a genius to say that’s one-thirtieth of a liquidity, but we haven’t experienced it because everything is liquid on the way up.
不需要天才就能说这是流动性的三十分之一，但我们还没有经历过这种情况，因为一切都在上涨过程中具有流动性。
When we’re printing $8 trillion, it all is good, but now, when things go the other way, we’re finding out that what we thought was liquid is not as liquid as it once was.
当我们印刷 8 万亿美元时，一切都很好，但现在，当事情朝相反的方向发展时，我们发现我们认为的流动性并不像以前那样流动。
I’m not talking about the top 500 stocks.
我说的不是500强股票。
I’m talking specifically about the credit market.
我具体谈论的是信贷市场。
I saw an article the other day; it was saying that the average length of time to sell an investment-grade public corporate bond is now five days.
前几天我看到一篇文章；据称，现在出售投资级公共公司债券的平均时间为五天。
We have had the first wholesale failure in a market of liquidity.
我们在流动性市场上遭遇了第一次大规模失败。
Think about what happened in the UK in their pension meltdown.
想想英国养老金崩溃的情况。
Institutions in the UK thought they had market liquidity at or near the market price.
英国机构认为他们的市场流动性等于或接近市场价格。
They tried to sell AAA and AA obligations.
他们试图出售 AAA 和 AA 义务。
The market gapped down.
市场跳空下跌。
They tried to sell more; the market gapped down again.
他们试图卖出更多产品，但结果却不尽如人意。市场再次跳空下跌。
Bank of England had to step in and stabilize the market before major damage happened.
在重大损害发生之前，英格兰银行必须介入并稳定市场。
Why is there so much adjustment in the quantity of liquidity and not more in the price?
为什么流动性数量的调整幅度如此之大，而不是价格的调整幅度更大？
A 30X decrease is a massive adjustment in the Q or the quantity.
减少 30 倍是 Q 或数量的巨大调整。
Why don’t you just pay people to get more liquidity?
为什么不直接付钱给人们来获得更多的流动性呢？
That might be inefficient?
这可能效率很低？
A higher price?
价格更高吗？
But isn’t that what’s happening?
But isn’t that what’s happening?
Isn’t that what LDI in the UK showed us?
这不正是英国LDI向我们展示的吗？
Is that there is liquidity.
就是有流动性。
It’s just not at or near the market price.
它只是不等于或接近市场价格。
I do expect that in risk-off environments, we will actually see much greater price adjustment.
我确实预计，在避险环境下，我们实际上会看到更大的价格调整。
I don’t want to go down the rabbit hole of liquidity, but I want to contrast this to what I see taking place in the world.
我不想陷入流动性的困境，但我想将其与我所看到的世界上正在发生的情况进行对比。
This is my 40th year doing this, and we have an impression in the investment marketplace that private is risky and public is safe.
今年是我从事这行的第 40 年，我们在投资市场上的印象是，私人是有风险的，公共是安全的。
Well, was that the case?
嗯，是这样吗？
Yes, that probably was.
是的，可能是这样。
When I started in business, that probably was true.
当我刚开始做生意时，这可能是真的。
Most things that were private were private equity, venture capital, and hedge funds, and things that were public were generally public for the right reasons.
大多数私有的事物是私募股权、风险投资和对冲基金，而公开的事物通常是出于正确的原因而公开的。
Well, is it true today?
嗯，今天是真的吗？
Right now, I look at the S&P 500.
现在，我关注标准普尔 500 指数。
I look at 10 stocks that are nearly 35 percent of the S&P.
我研究了 10 只股票，它们占标准普尔指数的比重接近 35%。
I look at those 10 stocks that trade north of a 50 P/E , and I say to myself, “Is that actually safe?
我看着那 10 只市盈率超过 50 的股票，我对自己说：“这真的安全吗？
Or is that just a reflection of a liquidity bubble and everyone piling into passive management and everything else?” I don’t have to conclude that, but my belief of where the world is today is: public is safe and risky, and we’ve seen that.
或者这只是流动性泡沫以及每个人都涌入被动管理和其他一切的反映？”我不必得出这样的结论，但我对当今世界现状的信念是：公众是安全的，但也存在风险，我们已经看到了这一点。
Look at all the tech correction that took place in 2022.
看看 2022 年发生的所有技术调整。
It’s very correlated, right?
这是非常相关的，对吧？
Everything is correlated.
一切都是相关的。
But I’ll make the point on safe and risky in public, and safe and risky in private.
但我会强调公共场合的安全和风险，以及私下的安全和风险。
Because something is private, no longer means it’s risky.
因为某些东西是私人的，不再意味着它有风险。
Private goes from AA to levered equity, public AA to levered equity.
私募从AA到杠杆股权，公营AA到杠杆股权。
We’re just talking about degrees of liquidity and whether liquidity or illiquidity is a risk or not.
我们只是在讨论流动性程度以及流动性或流动性不足是否是风险。
To a wealthy individual, how many wealthy individuals — high-net-worth investors — need 100 percent of their money on Tuesday?
对于一个富人来说，有多少富人 ——“高净值投资者”——周二需要100%的钱？
Probably none.
可能没有。
Therefore, they should be looking at using liquidity as a choice.
因此，他们应该考虑使用流动性作为一种选择。
Are they getting paid for giving up that option to be more liquid?
他们会因为放弃流动性更高的选择而获得报酬吗？
Same for institutions.
对于机构来说也是如此。
If you’re a pension fund, if you’re an endowment, if you’re a sovereign wealth fund — sure, you want a portion of your portfolio that’s liquid, but how much of it actually needs to be liquid?
如果你是一个养老基金，如果你是一个捐赠基金，如果你是一个主权财富基金 —— 当然，你希望你的投资组合中有一部分是流动性的，但是其中有多少实际上需要是流动性的？
I find myself asking and talking to CIOs today and CEOs today, not so much about public or private or liquid or illiquid, but are you being adequately compensated for having less liquidity?
我发现自己今天在与首席信息官和首席执行官们询问和交谈时，并不是太多关于公共或私人、流动性或非流动性的问题，而是你们是否因流动性减少而得到了充分的补偿？
And are you structurally able to be less liquid prudently?
从结构上看，您是否能够谨慎地减少流动性？
If we’re thinking about pre-Apollo, pre-Athene traditional insurance companies, you’re saying they were investing too much in too many liquid assets.
如果我们考虑阿波罗之前、雅典娜之前的传统保险公司，你会说他们在太多的流动资产上投资了太多。
What’s the reason for that market failure?
市场失灵的原因是什么？
Why did they make that mistake?
他们为什么会犯这样的错误？
It’s not a question of market failure.
这不是市场失灵的问题。
When you grow up in a world and private is perceived as risky, insurance companies have always been investors in private placements.
当你成长在一个私募被认为有风险的世界时，保险公司一直是私募的投资者。
It’s just the size of the traditional private market has been very, very small.
只是传统私人市场的规模非常非常小。
A small portion of their asset, so they found themselves invested primarily in public assets because 20 years ago, public was safe and private was risky.
他们的资产只占一小部分，因此他们发现自己主要投资于公共资产，因为 20 年前，公共资产是安全的，私人资产是有风险的。
Well, the world we’re in today does not look like that.
嗯，我们今天所处的世界看起来并非如此。
Even the term private credit — they’re just two English-language words that sound like they mean something, but for the most part, they mean nothing.
即使是“私人信贷”这个词——它们也只是两个英语单词，听起来像是有某种意义，但在大多数情况下，它们没有任何意义。
In the popular press, people use private credit to refer to a very small sliver of a market.
在大众媒体中，人们使用私人信贷来指称一小部分市场。
They refer to private credit as direct lending or so-called lending to buyouts.
他们将私人信贷称为直接贷款或所谓的收购贷款。
This is a below-investment-grade activity.
这是一项低于投资级别的活动。
Sometimes it’s really attractive; sometimes it’s not so attractive, but it is a $1.5 trillion market, a large market.
有时候它真的很有吸引力；有时它并不那么有吸引力，但这是一个1.5万亿美元的市场，一个很大的市场。
But the market that I’m talking about for private credit is $40 trillion.
但我所说的私人信贷市场是 40 万亿美元。
Everything that’s on a bank balance sheet is actually private credit.
银行资产负债表上的所有内容实际上都是私人信贷。
Think about that.
想想看。
Loans to companies — private credit; loans to consumers — private credit.
对公司的贷款 — 私人信贷；向消费者提供的贷款 — 私人信贷。
We haven’t yet gotten to a more sophisticated view of the market, where private can be AA, just less liquid.
我们还没有对市场有更复杂的看法，私人可以是 AA，只是流动性较差。
Public can be CCC, just more liquid.
Public 可以是 CCC，只是流动性更强。
There is nothing inherently credit-sensitive about being public or private; it’s just differing degrees of liquidity.
无论是公共还是私人，本质上都没有信用敏感性；只是流动性程度不同而已。
In the old banking model, say I get a checking account, and my local Chinese restaurant gets a small-sized loan.
在旧的银行模式中，假设我有一个支票账户，而我当地的中餐馆则获得一笔小额贷款。
In relative terms, is there now less of that?
相对而言，现在是不是少了？
What’s the opportunity cost of moving to more maturity-matched, higher-yielding assets?
转向期限更匹配、收益更高的资产的机会成本是多少？
What is the economy giving up, even if it’s a good tradeoff?
经济正在放弃什么，即使这是一个很好的权衡？
I think it’s clear that the largest companies in the world have access to both the banking system and to the investment-grade bond market every day.
我认为很明显，世界上最大的公司每天都可以进入银行系统和投资级债券市场。
Medium-sized and smaller companies, no matter how creditworthy, have less access to the banking system and have virtually no access directly to the bond market.
中型和小型企业，无论信誉如何，进入银行系统的机会都较少，而且几乎无法直接进入债券市场。
So, they increasingly will come through intermediaries.
因此，他们越来越多地通过中介机构进行交易。
Some of that activity is below investment-grade and speculative.
其中一些活动低于投资级别和投机性。
That’s a perfectly fine business.
这是一项非常好的生意。
It’s not primarily the business we’re in.
这主要不是我们从事的业务。
Some of that business is investment-grade and secured, and that is primarily the business that we are in.
其中一些业务是投资级且有担保的，这也是我们主要从事的业务。
I don’t think it’s better or worse.
我不认为这更好或更糟。
I think that we are just looking at evolution.
我认为我们只是在关注进化论。
I’m constantly reminded that financial services is not a status quo business.
我不断被提醒，金融服务不是一个安于现状的行业。
I go back to when I started, beginning a high-yield bond market: not a lot of high-yield bonds, no levered loans, no ETFs, not a lot of securitized product.
我回到刚开始的时候，开始一个高收益债券市场：没有很多高收益债券，没有杠杆贷款，没有ETF，没有很多证券化产品。
Those four products today, we take as mainstream products.
今天我们把这四种产品作为主流产品。
Why do we expect that 15 years from now or 20 years from now, the same four products will be as dominant?
为什么我们预计 15 年后或 20 年后，同样的四种产品将占据主导地位？
We will end up with a new set of products and a new set of markets that reflect differing market conditions and different regulatory conditions and different conditions of financial institutions.
We will end up with a new set of products and a new set of markets that reflect differing market conditions and different regulatory conditions and different conditions of financial institutions.
It’s just change.
It’s just change.
On the political economy of insurance regulation
On the political economy of insurance regulation
Now, how stable is all this as a political equilibrium?
现在，这一切作为政治均衡有多稳定？
If you think about the four major banks, as you well know, there are very serious stress tests applied to them, capital requirements.
如果你想想四大银行，众所周知，它们面临着非常严格的压力测试，即资本要求。
The Fed is a major regulator.
The Fed is a major regulator.
At least for insurance, it tends to be at the state level.
至少对于保险来说，它往往是在州一级。
One can reinsure through Bermuda.
One can reinsure through Bermuda.
Capital requirements are very different.
Capital requirements are very different.
Competence of the state regulators arguably is lower than that of the Fed.
国家监管机构的能力可以说低于美联储。
Whether or not one wants more regulation — and generally, I don’t — but is this a stable situation?
无论人们是否想要更多的监管 — 一般来说，我不想要 — 但是这是一种稳定的情况吗？
How’s it going to evolve?
它将如何发展？
First, I would have to correct almost everything you’ve said along the way to set the table for what I’m going to talk about.
首先，我必须纠正你一路上所说的几乎所有内容，为我将要谈论的内容做好准备。
First, the difference between not so much the banking system and insurance, but the banking system and the investment marketplace.
首先，与其说是银行体系和保险之间的区别，不如说是银行体系和投资市场之间的区别。
Let’s start with this — there are plenty of ways for investors to lose money.
让我们从这个开始 —— 投资者亏损的方式有很多。
Investors can buy speculative stocks.
投资者可以购买投机股票。
They could buy the S&P.
They could buy the S&P.
They can speculate in almost anything.
他们几乎可以推测任何事情。
The making or losing of money is not, in and of itself, a systemically risky activity because, for good reason, we allow speculative investing every single day.
The making or losing of money is not, in and of itself, a systemically risky activity because, for good reason, we allow speculative investing every single day.
Things go up, things go down.
事情上升，事情下降。
You can lose money in credit as well as in equity.
您可能会在信贷和股本方面遭受损失。
Now we come to mutual funds.
Now we come to mutual funds.
If a mutual fund, which is daily liquid, owns credit, and investors want to get their money back, you’re right, price just adjusts.
如果每日流动的共同基金拥有信贷，并且投资者希望收回资金，那么你是对的，价格只会调整。
Mutual funds are not price guarantors.
Mutual funds are not price guarantors.
Are they regulated?
他们受到监管吗？
Mutual funds are regulated.
共同基金受到监管。
Are they disclosed and transparent?
它们是否公开且透明？
Yes, they’re disclosed and transparent.
Yes, they’re disclosed and transparent.
The holdings of a mutual fund are completely visible and they’re de-levered.
共同基金的持有量是完全可见的，而且是去杠杆化的。
Is that a risky activity because it moved out of the banking system and into a mutual fund?
这是一项有风险的活动吗，因为它已经从银行系统转移到共同基金中了？
I don’t think so; I actually think it has de-risked.
我不这么认为； I actually think it has de-risked.
It’s made our economy and our financial system more resilient.
它使我们的经济和金融体系更具弹性。
Now I’ll come to your question on political equilibrium.
现在我来回答你关于政治均衡的问题。
Insurance — if you just focus on insurance — has no federal guarantee, does not borrow short and lend long, has no access to the Fed, and does not do liquidity transformation or maturity mismatch, and they are forced to hold amounts of capital.
Insurance — if you just focus on insurance — has no federal guarantee, does not borrow short and lend long, has no access to the Fed, and does not do liquidity transformation or maturity mismatch, and they are forced to hold amounts of capital.
If you look — and I’ll give you a comparison just for us, not for the whole industry — who holds more capital, Athene our insurer as a percentage of assets or the typical bank?
If you look — and I’ll give you a comparison just for us, not for the whole industry — who holds more capital, Athene our insurer as a percentage of assets or the typical bank?
You would think the typical bank, but you would be wrong.
您可能会认为是典型的银行，但您错了。
We hold more capital per dollar of assets than anyone else.
我们每美元资产持有的资本比其他任何人都多。
Who holds more investment-grade assets?
谁持有更多投资级资产？
Ninety percent of our book is investment-grade, the typical bank is two-thirds investment-grade.
我们账目中百分之九十的内容是投资级别，典型的银行是三分之二的投资级别。
Sure, but that’s all time-sliced—
当然，但这都是时间切片的——
Let’s keep going.
让我们继续吧。
Money market funds have been a source of systemic risk, AIG has been —
货币市场基金一直是系统性风险的一个来源，AIG 一直 —
I can’t tell you there’s not risks in the economy.
我不能告诉你经济中没有风险。
We have a choice.
我们有一个选择。
We can have risk dispersed among lots of institutions, or we can have it concentrated in the government-backed, borrow-short, lend-long, government-guaranteed banking system.
We can have risk dispersed among lots of institutions, or we can have it concentrated in the government-backed, borrow-short, lend-long, government-guaranteed banking system.
Every time we disperse that risk, we make the system more resilient.
每次我们分散风险时，我们都会使系统更具弹性。
If you want to focus on insurance, which is your question on political equilibrium, there’s more capital, there’s no ALM mismatch, there’s more investment-grade, and there is appropriate state-based regulation for institutions that do not have government guarantees or borrow from the Fed or do anything else.
如果你想专注于保险，这是你的政治均衡问题，那就有更多的资本，没有ALM错配，有更多的投资级别，并且对没有政府担保或从美联储借款或做任何其他事情的机构有适当的国家监管。
Insurance is very slow-moving.
保险的进展非常缓慢。
We’re talking about, on average, 10-year assets.
我们谈论的是平均 10 年期资产。
This is a very slow-moving process.
这是一个非常缓慢的过程。
Again, most of the issues that have happened in the insurance industry have not been asset issues.
再次强调，保险业发生的大部分问题都不是资产问题。
They’ve been liability issues, exactly the kind of thing that insurance-specialist regulation is designed to detect.
它们一直是责任问题，而这正是保险专业监管旨在检测的问题。
Say you’re a risk-averse regulator, maybe too risk-averse.
假设你是一个厌恶风险的监管者，也许过于厌恶风险。
You’re worried about off-balance-sheet risk.
您担心表外风险。
You’re not very good as a regulator at monitoring off-balance-sheet risk, so you overreact by extending your own reach, wanting to impose capital requirements on everyone.
作为监管者，你不太擅长监控表外风险，因此你反应过度，扩大了自己的影响范围，想要对每个人施加资本要求。
Then you want to monitor them more.
然后你想更多地监控他们。
Eventually, these private institutions, which are basically healthy — they become more and more like banks, no?
最终，这些基本上健康的私人机构——它们变得越来越像银行，不是吗？
We have this example.
We have this example.
We have Solvency II in Europe.
我们在欧洲有偿付能力II。
Solvency II in Europe has been terrible for the retirement services industry.
欧洲的偿付能力II对于退休服务行业来说非常糟糕。
Capacity — just the mere availability of product is down almost 40 percent.
产能 ——仅产品的可用性就下降了近 40%。
That’s an outcome.
That’s an outcome.
That’s not the outcome we’ve chosen.
这不是我们选择的结果。
The question and credit at the end of the day, which is really what we’re talking about — credit is a function of GDP.
归根结底，问题和信用才是我们真正讨论的问题——信用是 GDP 的函数。
If you want GDP, credit can only come from two sources.
如果你想要GDP，信贷只能来自两个来源。
The government-backed, government-guaranteed, borrow-short-lend-long banking system, or the investment marketplace.
政府支持、政府担保、借短贷多的银行体系或投资市场。
There’s no third choice.
没有第三种选择。
Make your choice.
做出你的选择。
If we want less GDP, that’s a choice.
如果我们想要减少GDP，这是一个选择。
It doesn’t seem like a good choice, given the other options that are available.
考虑到其他可用的选项，这似乎不是一个好的选择。
Will crypto play a role in the future of the US financial sector?
加密货币会在美国金融业的未来中发挥作用吗？
Out of my depth.
Out of my depth.
Absolutely no idea.
完全不知道。
But you interact with plenty of financial institutions that have opinions on crypto, right?
但您与许多对加密货币有意见的金融机构进行了互动，对吧？
You face the possibility of investing in crypto yourselves.
您面临着自己投资加密货币的可能性。
You might not do it, but that itself is a stance.
你可能不会这样做，但这本身就是一种立场。
I’ll give you my uneducated, spectator-from-the-sideline view.
我将向您提供我未受过教育的、旁观者的观点。
Things like stablecoins, things like on-ramp, things that are convertible back into fiat currency are absolutely going to play a view.
像稳定币这样的东西，像入口这样的东西，可以兑换成法定货币的东西绝对会发挥作用。
I see every opportunity for them to reduce the cost, to reduce the friction of dealing with the financial system, to be an amazing on-ramp for the US.
我看到他们有一切机会降低成本，减少与金融体系打交道的摩擦，成为美国令人惊叹的入口。
I don’t really see, in a KYC-AML [know your customer, anti-money laundering] world, a value of an alternative currency.
在 KYC-AML（了解你的客户，反洗钱）世界中，我并没有真正看到替代货币的价值。
If you are in other parts of the world, maybe an alternative currency has more appeal than —
如果您在世界其他地方，也许替代货币比 更有吸引力——
In any case, Apollo is not doing it?
无论如何，阿波罗不做吗？
Apollo is not engaged in crypto.
Apollo 不涉足加密领域。
On Japan
关于日本
Why would you spend a given free day in Japan?
您为什么要在日本度过一天的空闲时间？
And where in Japan, and what would you do?
那么在日本哪里，你会做什么？
First, Japan is an amazing place, as you know.
首先，如你所知，日本是一个神奇的地方。
It’s just so different.
真是太不同了。
I’m surprised by something every time I’m there.
每次我在那里都会对一些事情感到惊讶。
But as a financial matter, you look at a society that is older, that has needs for retirement, that has lived through repressed yields for more than 20 years.
但从金融角度来看，你会看到一个老龄化的社会，有退休需求，20多年来一直承受着收益率的抑制。
So, you have a yield-starved society in an older population nearing retirement.
因此，在接近退休的老年人口中，社会存在着一个产量匮乏的社会。
They need yield.
They need yield.
They’re very comfortable in dollars, and to the extent we are providing safe-yield, total-return, investment-grade, private credit, whatever bucket you want to talk, Japan is absolutely the perfect market for what we do.
他们对美元非常满意，就我们提供的安全收益、总回报、投资级、私人信贷，无论你想谈论什么，日本绝对是我们所做的事情的完美市场。
I think it’s a matter of education, and that education is taking place.
我认为这是一个教育问题，教育正在发生。
Japan also has an insurance industry that is in the middle of a capital transition.
Japan also has an insurance industry that is in the middle of a capital transition.
It has had a very, very difficult time raising capital.
它在筹集资金方面经历了非常非常困难的时期。
That’s also a fabulous reinsurance market.
这也是一个非常棒的再保险市场。
Between my love of culture, my love of the food, the need for safe yield, and the need for reinsurance capital, it feels like a highly productive place to be.
在我对文化的热爱、对食物的热爱、对安全收益的需求以及对再保险资本的需求之间，这感觉像是一个高效的地方。
As you know, Japan has a total fertility rate of 1.3.
众所周知，日本的总和生育率为1.3。
South Korea, now, is 0.7 and falling.
韩国现在是 0.7，并且正在下降。
That’s astonishing.
That’s astonishing.
Do any financial models work when your total fertility rate is 0.7?
当你的总生育率是 0.7 时，有什么财务模型有效吗？
Again, I want to stick to that which I think I’m good at.
Again, I want to stick to that which I think I’m good at.
As a country, as a matter, probably not.
作为一个国家，作为一个问题，可能不会。
The population projections I have seen for lots of places in the world are just shocking.
The population projections I have seen for lots of places in the world are just shocking.
But in the little corner of the universe that Apollo participates in, a 10-year period, a 20-year period is not really all that different than it is today.
但在阿波罗参与的宇宙小角落里，10年、20年与今天并没有太大不同。
Your grandfather, Emanuel Stein — he was an economist.
你的祖父伊曼纽尔·斯坦因（Emanuel Stein）——他是一位经济学家。
He taught at NYU: labor economics, labor relations.
他在纽约大学教授：劳动经济学、劳动关系。
What did you learn from him?
你从他身上学到了什么？
He was my first job.
He was my first job.
I was living in south Florida, and I would come to New York for the summer.
我住在佛罗里达州南部，夏天我会来纽约。
He was a labor arbitrator, so I would come work for him in the summer.
He was a labor arbitrator, so I would come work for him in the summer.
He would dump a bunch of briefs on me, and I would summarize the arguments, and then I would debate the cases with him, and then he would go off and write the opinions.
他会向我扔一堆案情摘要，我会总结论点，然后我会与他辩论案件，然后他会写下意见。
It was a pretty good way to get a good view of the world as between labor and management.
这是一个很好的方式来了解劳工和管理层之间的世界。
What made him a good labor arbitrator?
是什么让他成为一名优秀的劳动仲裁员？
Patience.
耐心。
He was just a remarkable individual, multilingual, a Torah scholar, just had incredible amounts of patience and humility.
He was just a remarkable individual, multilingual, a Torah scholar, just had incredible amounts of patience and humility.
Your free day in Japan — when the work is done, where do you eat?
在日本的空闲日 ——工作完成后，你在哪里吃饭？
What’s the best food in Tokyo?
东京最好吃的食物是什么？
I take it from the concierge at wherever I’m staying.
I take it from the concierge at wherever I’m staying.
I look for one traditional Japanese experience and one “Give me the latest, newest, greatest” because Japan does create new and great in addition to traditional.
我寻找一种传统的日本体验和一种“给我最新的、最新的、最好的”，因为除了传统之外，日本确实创造了新的和伟大的体验。
The best French food I’ve ever had was in Tokyo, in fact.
事实上，我吃过的最好的法国菜是在东京。
It’s amazing, isn’t it?
太神奇了，不是吗？
You never know what you’re going to find.
你永远不知道你会发现什么。
On architecture and neighborhoods
关于建筑和社区
That’s right.
没错。
Your interest in architecture — Is brutalist architecture overrated or underrated?
Your interest in architecture — Is brutalist architecture overrated or underrated?
Is it actually good?
真的好吗？
I don’t know that I would say I’m interested in brutalist architecture, but I am interested in building things.
我不知道我会说我对野兽派建筑感兴趣，但我对建造东西感兴趣。
For whatever reason, I’m not a collector of anything.
不管出于什么原因，我不是任何东西的收藏家。
I don’t collect wine, I don’t collect art, I don’t collect cars, but I do like building things and have always liked building things, starting from my late 20s, when I built my first house.
我不收藏葡萄酒，不收藏艺术品，不收藏汽车，但我确实喜欢建造东西，而且从 20 多岁建造我的第一栋房子开始，我就一直喜欢建造东西。
I’ve built lots of houses, lots of restaurants, lots of stores, small office buildings, and I just keep going.
I’ve built lots of houses, lots of restaurants, lots of stores, small office buildings, and I just keep going.
Whatever itch it scratches, I find it to be just an incredibly creative outlet, really enjoyable.
不管它有多痒，我发现它只是一个令人难以置信的创意出口，真的很有趣。
Everyone always says, “Don’t you get aggravated building these things?” I said, “Only if you have to move in on a certain date, but if you’re flexible — ”
Everyone always says, “Don’t you get aggravated building these things?”我说：“只要你必须在某个日期搬进来，但如果你很灵活的话 —— ”
As it relates to brutalist architecture, you’re referring to the apartment in New York City —
As it relates to brutalist architecture, you’re referring to the apartment in New York City —
On 5th Avenue, yes.
On 5th Avenue, yes.
— on 5th Avenue.
— on 5th Avenue.
The answer is, I don’t know that I would’ve chosen it, but there’s something about it that I just found incredibly appealing.
The answer is, I don’t know that I would’ve chosen it, but there’s something about it that I just found incredibly appealing.
This was a full apartment built with no right angles.
This was a full apartment built with no right angles.
Everything curved, in very simple materials but very beautiful materials.
一切都是弯曲的，采用非常简单的材料，但非常漂亮的材料。
You feel it’s held up visually.
你会觉得它在视觉上受到了阻碍。
It’s had to be redone.
It’s had to be redone.
Visually, it’s held up beautifully, but —
从视觉上看，它的表现很漂亮，但是 ——
But maintenance.
But maintenance.
Everything that was used to build in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s is now gone.
20 世纪 50 年代、1960 年代、1970 年代用来建造的一切现在都消失了。
It’s been rebuilt in the same style, but with new materials and new techniques.
It’s been rebuilt in the same style, but with new materials and new techniques.
How do you think about whether or not there should be a red hawk nest at that building?
您如何看待该建筑是否应该有一个红鹰巢？
I don’t think about it at all.
我根本不去想它。
I rarely see the hawk or hawks, and it does not interfere with my life.
I rarely see the hawk or hawks, and it does not interfere with my life.
You just never worried about the red hawk nest?
你只是从来不担心红鹰巢吗？
There’s so much else to worry about, but I never worry about the red hawk nest at 927 Fifth.
还有很多事情需要担心，但我从不担心第五号 927 号的红鹰巢。
COWEN: Here’s a question I’ve asked a number of guests.
COWEN: Here’s a question I’ve asked a number of guests.
Patrick Collison and I both have made the observation.
帕特里克·科里森和我都做出了这样的观察。
It seems there are really very, very few attractive residential neighborhoods built after World War II in this country.
看来这个国家二战后建成的有吸引力的住宅区真的非常非常少。
Or if you look at Europe, places rebuilt after wartime damage.
或者如果你看看欧洲，战时破坏后重建的地方。
They’re mostly ugly or mediocre, or maybe at best okay.
They’re mostly ugly or mediocre, or maybe at best okay.
You might challenge the premise, but why do you think we’ve lost the ability to build beautiful neighborhoods?
You might challenge the premise, but why do you think we’ve lost the ability to build beautiful neighborhoods?
Plenty of lovely homes, lovely individual corporate buildings, but neighborhoods?
有很多可爱的住宅，可爱的个体企业建筑，但是社区呢？
All the good ones are old.
所有的好人都老了。
Why?
为什么？
Well, you got here first.
嗯，是你先到的。
Whoever got here first took the good physical location.
谁先到达这里，谁就占据了良好的地理位置。
I think we’re in a rebuilding mode, certainly in most of this country, and certainly in Western Europe.
我认为我们正处于重建模式，当然在这个国家的大部分地区，当然在西欧也是如此。
There are beautiful things and beautiful neighborhoods being created.
美丽的事物和美丽的社区正在被创造出来。
I’m back from 12 days in the Middle East.
我在中东待了 12 天回来了。
We can like or not like the style of what’s being built, but the scale, the ambition, the new neighborhoods, the ability to create new is extraordinary.
我们可以喜欢或不喜欢正在建设的建筑风格，但规模、雄心、新社区、创造新事物的能力都是非凡的。
And where impressed you there?
哪里让你印象深刻？
To see what’s happening in Riyadh in Diriyah, which is their traditional neighborhood.
看看利雅得的迪里耶（Diriyah）正在发生什么，这是他们的传统社区。
It has 9 million people, on the way to 13 million people.
它有 900 万人，即将达到 1300 万人。
To see what’s going on in Abu Dhabi, on Museum Island in Saadiyat and other places.
看看阿布扎比、萨迪亚特博物馆岛和其他地方正在发生什么。
The scale of ambition there is actually quite impressive.
那里的野心规模实际上相当令人印象深刻。
I don’t love everything, but I am impressed of their ability to get things done and to actually re-envision on a grand scale — something we really haven’t done in this country in a very long time.
我并不喜欢一切，但他们完成工作的能力以及真正大规模重新设想的能力给我留下了深刻的印象——这是我们在这个国家已经很长时间没有做过的事情了。
In the United States, do you think we’re on the verge of building a new Shaker Heights?
在美国，您认为我们即将建造一个新的 Shaker Heights 吗？
Which is not on a spectacular plot of land.
这并不是在一块壮观的土地上。
It’s outside of Cleveland.
它位于克利夫兰郊外。
Gorgeous homes, wonderful neighborhoods, trees, perfectly integrated.
华丽的家园、美妙的社区、树木，完美地融为一体。
They were quite poor compared to us.
与我们相比，他们非常贫穷。
Why no Shaker Heights today?
为什么今天没有Shaker Heights？
Or do you think we’re doing one?
或者你认为我们正在做一个？
I’m not sure.
我不知道。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
Certainly, I look at the places where you have population increases.
当然，我会关注人口增长的地方。
Most of what I’ve seen that I really like — Austin, Texas.
我所看到的大部分都是我真正喜欢的 ——德克萨斯州奥斯汀。
We’re going to have whole new neighborhoods in Austin, Texas.
我们将在德克萨斯州奥斯汀建立全新的社区。
Places that are physically beautiful, that were just outside the core, and now are being built.
那些物理上很美丽的地方，就在核心之外，现在正在建设中。
Again, we can say that’s progress or not progress.
同样，我们可以说这是进步，也可以说不是进步。
If you’re commuting into downtown Austin, you’re not so excited about that, but I think in places that are still growing, it is pretty dynamic.
如果你通勤到奥斯汀市中心，你对此不会那么兴奋，但我认为在仍在增长的地方，它是相当有活力的。
Will we or should we repurpose these big-box, big glass modernist office buildings?
我们会或者应该重新利用这些大盒子、大玻璃现代主义办公楼吗？
Are they permanent or they’ve passed their due date?
它们是永久性的还是已经过了预产期？
How should we think about those?
我们应该如何思考这些？
I worry less about the look and feel of the office.
我不太担心办公室的外观和感觉。
I think an office is an internal thing.
我认为办公室是一个内部的东西。
Does it encourage the kind of collaboration, the kind of working environment that you ultimately want for a company?
它是否鼓励您最终希望为公司提供的协作和工作环境？
You’ve just come from our cafeteria, and the productivity increase that we’ve experienced from the casual collisions of people seeing each other every day needs to happen inside a physical space in this office.
你刚刚从我们的自助餐厅出来，我们从人们每天见面的偶然碰撞中所经历的生产力提高需要在这个办公室的物理空间内发生。
Does the exterior of the building really matter to me?
建筑物的外观对我来说真的很重要吗？
No, not really.
不，不是真的。
What else have you done here at Apollo — where we’re sitting at the moment — to make it a better internal office?
为了使它成为一个更好的内部办公室，你在阿波罗 ——我们现在坐的地方——还做了什么？
How do you think about that design?
你觉得这个设计怎么样？
First, you’re going from a very low bar to a much better situation.
首先，你将从一个非常低的标准转变为一个更好的情况。
We were spread throughout this office building on non-contiguous floors with separate cafeterias in what I would call traditional executive offices for the more senior people and bullpens for the more junior people.
我们分布在这座办公楼的各个楼层，各个楼层互不相连，有独立的自助餐厅，我称之为传统的行政办公室，供高级人员使用，牛棚则供初级人员使用。
Nothing that I’ve just said is now true.
我刚才所说的现在都不是真的了。
We are now in a contiguous low-rise of this building on nine contiguous floors, all connected by a staircase.
我们现在位于这栋大楼的一栋连续的低层建筑中，有九个连续的楼层，所有楼层均由楼梯连接。
We have lots of places where casual collisions take place.
我们有很多发生意外碰撞的地方。
We have our coffee bar.
We have our coffee bar.
We have our cafeteria.
We have our cafeteria.
For the most part, we’ve become much more egalitarian with respect to offices.
在很大程度上，我们在办公室方面变得更加平等。
One of the things that I’ve done when I took over as CEO — I have a windowless office off the trading floor, and next to me is Jay Clayton, former head of the SEC.
当我接任首席执行官时，我所做的一件事就是——我在交易大厅外有一间没有窗户的办公室，旁边是美国证券交易委员会前负责人杰伊·克莱顿 (Jay Clayton)。
He has the same-size windowless office off the .
他在外面有一间同样大小的无窗办公室。
.
。
.
。
It’s given me tremendous moral authority when it comes to the arrangement of people’s offices, to say, “You’re welcome to take mine.” I think that culturally, leadership here has embraced it.
当涉及到人们办公室的安排时，它赋予了我巨大的道德权威，“欢迎你接受我的办公室”。我认为从文化上来说，这里的领导层已经接受了它。
We now sit not with each other; we sit with our teams.
我们现在不再坐在一起； we sit with our teams.
We are spread throughout this building in a good way.
我们很好地分布在这座大楼里。
On hiring
On hiring
If you need to hire a new person to make major decisions, significant commitments of funds, what nonobvious quality do you look for in that hire?
如果您需要雇用一名新人来做出重大决策、重大资金承诺，您会在该雇用人员中寻找哪些非显而易见的品质？
I wish it were that straightforward, and we could test for this and do it.
我希望事情就这么简单，我们可以对此进行测试并做到这一点。
But you must use your intuition at some level, right?
但你必须在某种程度上运用你的直觉，对吗？
We all do.
我们都这样做。
What does your intuition tell us that I wouldn’t learn from someone else?
你的直觉告诉我们什么是我不会向别人学习的？
No one gets hired to make major decisions right away, so let’s start with that.
没有人被雇用来立即做出重大决策，所以让我们从这个开始。
I will say jokingly your first year at Apollo is mostly useless.
我会开玩笑地说，你在阿波罗的第一年几乎毫无用处。
Your second year, you’re at 30 percent capacity.
Your second year, you’re at 30 percent capacity.
By the third year, you feel like you’ve been here 10 years.
到了第三年，你会感觉自己已经在这里呆了十年了。
We have lots of smart people, and there are lots of smart people in financial services.
我们有很多聪明人，金融服务业也有很多聪明人。
This is about cultural fit, and it’s understanding where we’re going and whether the organization can absorb the specific decision, the amount of change, or whether it has to be prepped in a certain way.
这是关于文化契合度的，它了解我们要去哪里，以及组织是否可以吸收具体的决策、变革的数量，或者是否必须以某种方式做好准备。
We are not chess pieces that can be moved around.
We are not chess pieces that can be moved around.
I just got back from an offsite with all 201 Apollo partners in Abu Dhabi.
I just got back from an offsite with all 201 Apollo partners in Abu Dhabi.
Really interesting way to get together.
非常有趣的聚会方式。
Three most valuable days of the year for me.
对我来说一年中最有价值的三天。
First thing I said, “A small group of us cannot run this business.” There are too many important decisions — to your point — that are taking place at levels that I will never see and I could never absorb.
First thing I said, “A small group of us cannot run this business.”有太多重要的决定————就你的观点而言————正在以我永远不会看到、也永远无法吸收的水平进行。
I have to get the buy-in of 200 people to successfully run this organization.
我必须得到 200 人的支持才能成功运营这个组织。
So, when I present, or the leadership here presents a strategic plan, we’re in debate mode.
So, when I present, or the leadership here presents a strategic plan, we’re in debate mode.
There’s very little that gets done in the way of dicta here.
这里几乎没有什么是用口述的方式完成的。
You’re hiring a 22-year-old for an entry-level position, but a potentially significant one.
You’re hiring a 22-year-old for an entry-level position, but a potentially significant one.
What nonobvious qualities do you look for?
您寻找哪些不明显的品质？
Yes, they’re smart, they work hard, maybe went to a good school.
Yes, they’re smart, they work hard, maybe went to a good school.
What else?
还有什么？
They have to love their job.
他们必须热爱自己的工作。
You can’t fake this job for very long.
你不可能假装这份工作太久。
People say, “Isn’t it really hard?
人们会说：“这真的不难吗？
Doesn’t it take over your life and everything else?” Absolutely, so if you don’t like it, this is probably not a good place for you.
Doesn’t it take over your life and everything else?” Absolutely, so if you don’t like it, this is probably not a good place for you.
At the end of the day, though, being able to take a blank piece of paper and think about what’s not there is the skill that gets them from mastery of numbers, of analytics, to actual decision-making.
然而，归根结底，能够拿着一张白纸思考不存在的东西是让他们从掌握数字、分析到实际决策的技能。
I think back, and I’ll relate it personally for me, I started at Drexel Burnham.
I think back, and I’ll relate it personally for me, I started at Drexel Burnham.
At Drexel, we financed companies where there was a nonzero chance their business would not exist.
At Drexel, we financed companies where there was a nonzero chance their business would not exist.
You spent an awful lot of time thinking about the future, the business plan, the specifics.
你花了很多时间思考未来、商业计划和细节。
We were not banking Exxon.
我们没有为埃克森银行提供银行服务。
Exxon was there then, it’s there now.
埃克森美孚当时在那里，现在也在那里。
That’s a process of maximizing the efficiency of Exxon’s particular corporate action that’s needed.
That’s a process of maximizing the efficiency of Exxon’s particular corporate action that’s needed.
Something that forces you to think about where something is going, whether the business will exist, how things will change, how you make capital commitments in the context of uncertainty is really what you want to see.
迫使你思考事情的发展方向、业务是否会存在、事情将如何变化、在不确定的背景下如何做出资本承诺，这才是你真正想看到的。
You don’t see that in a 22-year-old because you see them as masters of their craft.
You don’t see that in a 22-year-old because you see them as masters of their craft.
You don’t actually know till a number of years after someone’s here whether they possess that ability, which is to bring all their outside influences, their knowledge of what’s going on in the world, to bear in the business, along with relationship.
实际上，直到某人来到这里几年后，你才知道他们是否拥有这种能力，即将他们所有的外部影响、他们对世界上正在发生的事情的了解，与业务和关系一起承担。
At the end of the day, this is a complex business, but it’s also a really easy business.
At the end of the day, this is a complex business, but it’s also a really easy business.
People do business with people they like.
人们和他们喜欢的人做生意。
Are you likable?
Are you likable?
Are you relatable?
Are you relatable?
Are you good at building relationships?
你善于建立人际关系吗？
Having the right answer is helpful.
得到正确的答案是有帮助的。
Being able to convey that answer in a way that someone else will absorb and to engage in a dialogue with them — much more important.
能够以其他人能够理解的方式传达答案并与他们进行对话——更为重要。
On decision-making
On decision-making
Here’s a quotation from you, I think, if you could explain it to us.
我想这是您的引述，请您向我们解释一下。
“Our business, like the real estate business and some other business, is hours of boredom followed by moments of terror.
“Our business, like the real estate business and some other business, is hours of boredom followed by moments of terror.
We really only make 20 decisions a year.” What are you getting on about there?
我们实际上每年只做出 20 个决定。”你在那儿干什么？
Well, I was really talking about .
嗯，我真的在谈论。
.
。
.
。
It’s taken out of context, but it is what I said.
这是断章取义的，但这是我说的。
Then give us the context.
然后给我们背景。
The context is, I was talking about the difference between being an equity investor and a debt investor.
上下文是，我正在谈论股权投资者和债务投资者之间的区别。
In the private equity business, you work incredibly hard, but if you look at what we do as a firm — and we’re one of the largest in the private equity area — we make 10 or 20 decisions a year.
在私募股权行业，你的工作非常努力，但如果你看看我们作为一家公司所做的事情 ——我们是私募股权领域最大的公司之一—— 我们每年会做出 10 到 20 个决定。
Everything else is ceremony.
其他一切都是仪式。
So, hours of boredom followed by moments of terror when you actually have to decide.
因此，几个小时的无聊之后，当你真正必须做出决定时，就会出现恐惧的时刻。
If you think about that business, if I come in on Monday and I don’t like what I see, I go home.
如果你想想这件事，如果我周一进来并且我不喜欢我所看到的，我就会回家。
Tuesday, same thing.
Tuesday, same thing.
I keep doing that until I like what I see, and then I make an investment, because I’m only making 10 or 15 investments a year.
我一直这样做，直到我喜欢我所看到的，然后我进行投资，因为我每年只进行 10 或 15 笔投资。
Now, I’ll contrast that with the credit business.
现在，我将其与信贷业务进行对比。
In the credit business, I come in on Monday, and I take the least bad alternative on Monday, and the same on Tuesday, and the same on Wednesday.
在信贷业务中，我周一进来，周一我采取最不坏的选择，周二也是如此，周三也是如此。
My job in the credit business is to create more least bad alternatives, to create more origination, to create more diversification, to create more options.
我在信贷业务的工作是创造更多最不坏的替代方案，创造更多的起源，创造更多的多元化，创造更多的选择。
Because I know if I’m serving insurance companies — our own insurance company or someone else — a thing needs $6 billion or $7 billion a month.
因为我知道，如果我为保险公司 ——“我们自己的保险公司还是其他人”—— 某件事情每月需要 60 亿美元或 70 亿美元。
That’s what I need to create.
这就是我需要创造的。
It’s two different speeds.
这是两种不同的速度。
It’s two different ways of looking at the business.
这是看待业务的两种不同方式。
It’s two different ways of thinking, but I also want people to know that in the equity business, hours of boredom followed by moments of terror.
这是两种不同的思维方式，但我也想让人们知道，在股票行业，几个小时的无聊之后就是恐惧的时刻。
Given recent developments — and you’ve been involved in some of these — do you ever feel that Apollo and other top firms in the New York financial sector, that they’re just hiring too many people from so-called top schools?
鉴于最近的发展 —— 你参与了其中一些 —— 你有没有觉得阿波罗和纽约金融领域的其他顶尖公司只是从所谓的顶尖学校雇佣了太多的人？
Are you rethinking that?
你正在重新考虑吗？
I really don’t think that because we, as a firm, we’ve branched out so much, and I’m sure the other firms have branched out as well.
我真的不这么认为，因为我们作为一家公司，已经进行了如此多的业务拓展，而且我确信其他公司也已经进行了业务拓展。
Which is yes, when we started, it was easy to hire from a core number of schools into the private equity business, and it was very self-selecting.
是的，当我们开始时，很容易从核心数量的学校中招聘到私募股权业务，而且这是非常自我选择的。
I came from the University of Pennsylvania, and it would not surprise you that when I ran recruiting, 50 percent of the firm came from the University of Pennsylvania.
我来自宾夕法尼亚大学，当我进行招聘时，公司 50% 的员工来自宾夕法尼亚大学，你不会感到惊讶。
Then we democratized.
然后我们实现了民主化。
We had a few people from Duke and a few people from Virginia, and now it is a complete democratization from all over the country, all over the world.
我们有一些来自杜克大学的人，还有一些来自弗吉尼亚州的人，现在是来自全国各地、全世界的完全民主化。
The fastest growth in our business right now is taking place in India, and people say, “Well, that’s back office.” No, it’s just an office.
目前我们业务增长最快的地区是印度，人们会说：“嗯，那是后台。”不，这只是一间办公室。
We’re 500 people in Mumbai.
我们在孟买有 500 名员工。
We’ll be a thousand people in Mumbai in three years, and those people are coming from all over the world.
三年后，我们孟买的员工将达到一千人，这些人来自世界各地。
What makes you bullish on the India office?
是什么让您看好印度办事处？
Well, it’s just an incredible labor pool.
嗯，这只是一个令人难以置信的劳动力库。
We have a place that grew up as a back office for everyone, where it’s now just become another office.
我们有一个地方，最初是作为每个人的后台办公室，现在它变成了另一个办公室。
The English-speaking, the time zone, the work ethic, quality of people, and we’re scaling almost every business in India.
英语、时区、职业道德、人员素质，我们正在扩展印度几乎所有业务。
Professional businesses, risk businesses, technology businesses, and what you would consider traditional back office — it’s all happening.
专业业务、风险业务、技术业务以及您所认为的传统后台 ——这一切都在发生。
What’s the biggest obstacle to doing business in India?
在印度做生意最大的障碍是什么？
The biggest obstacle is just capital markets.
最大的障碍只是资本市场。
I’m not sure we’re going to deploy all that much in India.
我不确定我们是否会在印度部署那么多。
If I think again about the Indian economy, like many other Asian economies, you have equity and you have bank debt.
如果我再想想印度经济，就像许多其他亚洲经济体一样，你有股票，也有银行债务。
Now I’ll talk about our strategy, particularly in India.
现在我将谈谈我们的战略，特别是在印度的战略。
It used to be that we were there supplying equity, but guess what?
过去我们是在那里提供股权，但你猜怎么着？
Local Indian entrepreneurs, the wealthy families — they have amassed significant amounts of capital.
Local Indian entrepreneurs, the wealthy families — they have amassed significant amounts of capital.
There is no shortage of equity in India.
印度并不缺乏股权。
My guess is, if there’s an interesting opportunity in India, we would not be the first ones to see it.
我的猜测是，如果印度有一个有趣的机会，我们不会是第一个看到它的人。
Therefore, it tells me we’re not a great equity investor in India other than around the margins.
因此，这告诉我，除了利润之外，我们在印度并不是一个伟大的股权投资者。
On the other hand, in the banking system — banking system is very low-cost, and if the bank is willing to supply something, we should let the bank do it and not compete with them.
另一方面，在银行体系中——银行体系的成本非常低，如果银行愿意提供一些东西，我们就应该让银行去做，而不是与他们竞争。
So, our business plan in India is to be between equity and between bank because there’s virtually nothing that exists of size and scale.
因此，我们在印度的商业计划是介于股权和银行之间，因为实际上不存在规模和规模。
When Adani buys the Mumbai airport, we lend him $750 million US.
当阿达尼购买孟买机场时，我们借给他 7.5 亿美元。
When families in Mumbai want to consolidate their real estate holdings, we lend them $400 million US.
当孟买的家庭想要巩固他们的房地产资产时，我们会借给他们 4 亿美元。
There’s a lot of business to do, but it is not .
有很多事情要做，但事实并非如此。
.
。
.
。
We can go there and say we’re in the equity business or we’re in the bank debt business, but that’s not the opportunity.
我们可以去那里说我们从事股权业务或银行债务业务，但这不是机会。
It’s also not the opportunity in most of Asia.
对于亚洲大部分地区来说，这也不是机会。
On reforming university governance
论大学治理改革
Now, is this your correct title?
现在，这是您的正确标题吗？
You’re chairman of the Board of Overseers at the Wharton School at UPenn.
You’re chairman of the Board of Overseers at the Wharton School at UPenn.
Is that correct?
这是正确的吗？
We no longer use the word overseer.
我们不再使用监督这个词。
Okay.
好的。
What is it?
它是什么？
I’m chairman of the Board of Advisers at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania.
我是宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院顾问委员会主席。
Why have so many university boards?
为什么有这么多大学董事会？
They seem to have fallen asleep on the job, or they’re even part of the problem, or it’s hard to reform them.
他们似乎在工作中睡着了，或者他们甚至是问题的一部分，或者很难改变他们。
Structurally, what’s gone wrong?
从结构上看，哪里出了问题？
Guilty as charged.
被指控有罪。
I’ve been very public in this.
我在这方面一直非常公开。
I was a member, not just the chair of the Wharton board, but also a trustee of the University of Pennsylvania.
我是沃顿商学院的成员，不仅是董事会主席，而且还是宾夕法尼亚大学的受托人。
There were approximately 50 trustees, and the way you get to be a trustee, for the most part, is you put in service at one of the other boards, and then you are graduated over time to the trustee board.
大约有 50 名受托人，在大多数情况下，您成为受托人的方式是在其他董事会之一任职，然后随着时间的推移，您将晋升为受托人董事会。
Every other board at a university is a nonfiduciary board.
大学中的所有其他董事会都是非信托董事会。
It’s an advisory board, including the board that I chair at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School.
这是一个顾问委员会，包括我在宾夕法尼亚大学沃顿商学院担任主席的委员会。
It’s an advisory board.
这是一个顾问委员会。
When you move to the trustees, you actually become a fiduciary.
When you move to the trustees, you actually become a fiduciary.
No one tells you that.
没有人告诉你这一点。
The boards don’t behave any differently.
董事会的行为没有任何不同。
With 50 members, it’s very difficult to engage in substantive debates, and for the most part — and I put myself in the negatives here as well — trustees have actually not fulfilled their duties.
50个成员，很难进行实质性的辩论，而且大部分————这里我也把自己置于消极的位置————理事们实际上没有尽到自己的职责。
If you take UPenn as an example, UPenn’s charter is actually quite interesting.
如果以宾夕法尼亚大学为例，宾夕法尼亚大学的章程其实很有趣。
If you look at the questions that I’ve written to the trustees about, and questions that I think they should answer in thinking about where the university goes and how they choose the next president, those are, for the most part, not questions that Marc Rowan dreamed up.
如果你看看我写给董事会的问题，以及我认为他们在思考大学走向以及如何选择下一任校长时应该回答的问题，这些问题在很大程度上不是马克·罗恩梦想的。
These are questions posed directly from Penn’s charter.
这些是宾夕法尼亚大学章程直接提出的问题。
Trustees are supposed to set standards for admission.
受托人应该制定入学标准。
They’re supposed to set standards for faculty promotion.
他们应该为教师晋升制定标准。
They’re supposed to set a strategy for the school.
They’re supposed to set a strategy for the school.
They’re supposed to evaluate the efficacy of various academic departments.
他们应该评估各个学术部门的效率。
Can they actually do that?
他们真的能做到吗？
The answer is, sure they can.
答案是，他们当然可以。
Can 50 people do that?
50个人能做到吗？
No, 50 people cannot do that.
不，50个人做不到。
So, the boards are too big.
所以，板子太大了。
You think they should be smaller, on average.
你认为平均而言它们应该更小。
I think boards have to be of a level where people can actually have a debate and set a series of guidelines.
我认为董事会必须达到人们可以真正进行辩论并制定一系列指导方针的水平。
Like every board of directors, they are not doing and micromanaging these universities, just like boards of directors do not micromanage companies.
像每个董事会一样，他们不会对这些大学进行微观管理，就像董事会不会对公司进行微观管理一样。
They set strategy, they set tone, they set policy, and they pick a leader.
They set strategy, they set tone, they set policy, and they pick a leader.
Imagine if you were the past president of the University of Pennsylvania.
Imagine if you were the past president of the University of Pennsylvania.
You arrive after two very long-serving presidents.
你们是在两位任期很长的总统之后到达的。
You are hired by this board of trustees, and you go to work.
You are hired by this board of trustees, and you go to work.
What’s your goal?
你的目标是什么？
What’s your plan?
你的计划是什么？
How is success judged?
如何判断成功？
What’s the university’s policy on viewpoint diversity?
What’s the university’s policy on viewpoint diversity?
What’s the university’s policy on free speech?
What’s the university’s policy on free speech?
The board of trustees, myself included — we never actually provided a roadmap for the president to be judged against, so it does not surprise me, when confronted with difficult situations, that there was no guide.
董事会，包括我自己——我们实际上从未提供过可供对总统进行评判的路线图，因此，当面临困难情况时，没有任何指导，我并不感到惊讶。
I can’t imagine that’s a recipe for success.
我无法想象这是成功的秘诀。
My own view — and this is what I’ve written at UPenn — is, trustees should first answer fundamental questions about policy and where they want the university to go in partnership with their academic peers, because the academy also has a series of rights and responsibilities.
我自己的观点——这就是我在宾夕法尼亚大学写的——受托人应该首先回答有关政策的基本问题，以及他们希望大学与学术同行合作走向何方，因为学院也有一系列的权利和责任。
Once the university knows where it wants to go, hire the next president against a business plan, a strategic plan as to what they should do and what they should accomplish.
一旦大学知道自己想要走向何方，就可以根据商业计划、关于他们应该做什么和应该完成什么的战略计划聘请下一任校长。
It’s unfair to leave them directionless.
让他们迷失方向是不公平的。
Now, fortunately, UPenn is in a very good place right now, has a very stable pair of hands in Larry Jameson, who’s the interim president.
Now, fortunately, UPenn is in a very good place right now, has a very stable pair of hands in Larry Jameson, who’s the interim president.
So they’ll have time to do this.
所以他们会有时间来做这件事。
Why are academics, as a whole, so cowardly and conformist?
Why are academics, as a whole, so cowardly and conformist?
You said that, not me.
这是你说的，不是我说的。
That’s fine.
没关系。
I’ll say it, but it’s true, in my opinion.
我会这么说，但在我看来，这是真的。
Look, the answer is, I think it’s career risk.
看，答案是，我认为这是职业风险。
I do think that they’ve bet their careers on achieving tenure and achieving the notoriety or reputation amongst their colleagues, and they’re loath to lose that.
我确实认为他们把自己的职业生涯赌在获得终身职位并在同事中获得声誉或声誉，并且他们不愿意失去这些。
What’s been interesting about this entire process — the number of professors, department heads, department chairs who have reached out and just said, “Thank you.
整个过程的有趣之处在于，有多少教授、系主任、系主任伸出援手，只是说：“谢谢。
Thank you for saying what needed to be said.”
谢谢你说出了需要说的话。”
I’ll say thank you while we’re on the record, but please continue.
我会在录音时向您表示感谢，但请继续。
I say to them, I say, “Well, you don’t know how many of you there are.” If you are a Wharton faculty member, what are you interested in?
我对他们说，“好吧，你们不知道你们有多少人。” If you are a Wharton faculty member, what are you interested in?
You’re interested in academic excellence and research.
You’re interested in academic excellence and research.
If you’re an engineering faculty member, same thing.
If you’re an engineering faculty member, same thing.
If you’re a doctor in the med school, you’re a professor, same thing.
If you’re a doctor in the med school, you’re a professor, same thing.
There’s such a large group that is actually interested in getting to the core mission of a university — academic excellence and research.
有如此大的一群人实际上对大学的核心使命——学术卓越和研究感兴趣。
Without a guiding set of principles, every day the university is facing some sort of crisis.
如果没有一套指导原则，大学每天都面临着某种危机。
Where do they stand on free speech?
他们对言论自由的立场如何？
Are there any limits to academic freedom?
学术自由有限制吗？
What is the goal of the university?
大学的目标是什么？
Is the university viewpoint-neutral?
大学观点中立吗？
There is no policy, and in the absence of policy, many things seem arbitrary.
There is no policy, and in the absence of policy, many things seem arbitrary.
Say you’re talking to your grandkids or your kids, or someday your great-grandkids, and they ask you, “Where should I think about going to school?” Put aside UPenn, which obviously you might recommend for a bunch of reasons, but what insight do you have into this?
假设你正在和你的孙子或你的孩子，或者有一天你的曾孙，他们问你，“我应该考虑去哪里上学？”抛开宾夕法尼亚大学不谈，显然你可能会出于多种原因推荐它，但你对此有何见解？
Where should they go?
他们应该去哪里？
What do you need to learn?
你需要学习什么？
Think about how much the world has changed.
想想世界已经改变了多少。
The world has changed massively in almost every sector, not so much in academia.
世界几乎在每个领域都发生了巨大变化，但学术界变化不大。
We still have professors standing in front of classrooms, and while the tools are better —
我们仍然有教授站在教室前面，虽然工具更好了 ——
It’s not like high-yield bonds, right?
这不像高收益债券，对吧？
It’s stayed the same —
它保持不变 -
It’s not like technology.
这不像技术。
I’ll give you an analogy to what’s happening.
我会给你一个正在发生的事情的类比。
I am involved in academia in Israel.
我参与以色列的学术界。
For the past 38 years, I have either chaired or co-chaired what has become Israel’s best private-school network.
在过去的 38 年里，我担任主席或联合主席，现已成为以色列最好的私立学校网络。
Public charter is probably a better way to describe it.
公共宪章可能是描述它的更好方式。
We’re 50 schools.
我们有 50 所学校。
We’re roughly 30,000 kids in school.
我们大约有 30,000 名孩子在学校。
We’re 3,000 teachers.
我们有 3,000 名教师。
We only work in the periphery of Israel — Ethiopians, Yemenis, Druze, Bedouin, Eastern Europeans.
我们只在以色列周边地区工作——埃塞俄比亚人、也门人、德鲁兹人、贝都因人、东欧人。
We use union teachers.
我们使用工会教师。
We teach the state curriculum.
我们教授国家课程。
Our kids from these poor neighborhoods, who have a historical track record of not performing, are now performing at among the best levels in Israel.
我们来自这些贫困社区的孩子过去一直表现不佳，但现在他们的表现在以色列名列前茅。
Overall, the network is roughly 90 percent matriculation rate for their university test.
总体而言，该网络的大学考试录取率约为 90%。
We’ve wholesale changed communities, and we’ve now seen this over 38 years.
我们已经彻底改变了社区，38 年来我们已经见证了这一点。
So, this is not —
所以，这不是 ——
How did you do that?
你是怎么做到的？
That’s the punchline.
这就是重点。
So, how?
那么，怎么样？
We have to teach the state curriculum with state teachers.
我们必须由公立教师教授公立课程。
The only way we can do this is, we can teach it any way we want to teach it.
我们能做到这一点的唯一方法是，我们可以以任何我们想要的方式来教它。
If you go into a Darca school, you are unlikely to find a teacher standing in front of a classroom in any class.
如果你进入达卡学校，你不太可能在任何班级中找到站在教室前面的老师。
Technology has been brought into the classroom.
技术已被带入课堂。
New ways of teaching have been brought, experimentation has been brought into the classroom, games have been brought into the classroom.
新的教学方式被引入，实验被带入课堂，游戏被带入课堂。
We trial lots of things, and we double down on those things that work.
我们尝试了很多事情，并在那些有效的事情上加倍努力。
We are essentially a laboratory for changes in academia.
我们本质上是学术界变革的实验室。
I can’t imagine the status quo is going to hold, that 20 years from now, we’re going to have professors standing in front of classrooms doing what they do.
我无法想象现状会持续下去，即 20 年后，我们将让教授站在教室前面做他们所做的事情。
The tools are just so different.
这些工具是如此不同。
The amount of intelligence that people can gather from outside the class and research is so different.
人们从课堂和研究之外收集到的情报量是如此不同。
What do they need to know?
他们需要知道什么？
How to figure out what’s true, critical reasoning, how to use the resources and apply critical criteria to those resources.
如何弄清楚什么是真实的、批判性推理、如何使用资源并对这些资源应用关键标准。
Is the memorization of dates and times and places and orders all that important?
记住日期、时间、地点和顺序真的那么重要吗？
Probably not.
可能不会。
Critical reasoning context.
批判性推理背景。
If someone’s doing a trip to Israel, they might typically go to Jerusalem, Tel Aviv.
如果有人去以色列旅行，他们通常可能会去耶路撒冷、特拉维夫。
Where should they go that you know about and maybe they don’t?
你知道但他们可能不知道的他们应该去哪里？
They need to go to the desert by Eilat.
他们需要经过埃拉特前往沙漠。
Of the things that I do — and I don’t do all of that many things well — but of the things I do well, age-adjusted, I mountain bike pretty well.
在我做的事情中 ——很多事情我都做得不太好—— 但在我做得好的事情中，根据年龄调整，我骑山地自行车得很好。
In Timna Park near Eilat is a landscape that is otherworldly — desert, rock, sand formations — unbelievable, and a beautiful new hotel there, also.
埃拉特附近的蒂姆纳公园有着超凡脱俗的风景——沙漠、岩石、沙地——令人难以置信，那里还有一家美丽的新酒店。
On the restaurant business
关于餐饮业
How many restaurants do you own in Long Island?
您在长岛拥有多少家餐厅？
Three.
三。
As I joke, I’m the accidental restaurateur.
正如我开玩笑的，我是意外的餐馆老板。
Two under the name Duryea’s, one in Montauk, one in Orient Point, and then Lulu on the main street in Sag Harbor.
两间都以 Duryea’s 名义，一间在蒙托克，一间在 Orient Point，还有一间在萨格港的主要街道上露露。
What have you learned about the economics of restaurants from those?
您从这些中学到了哪些关于餐馆经济学的知识？
I actually learned that the restaurant business is a better business than most people give it credit for.
我实际上了解到，餐饮业比大多数人想象的要好。
I make the following observation: it is the restaurant business.
我的观察是：这是餐饮业。
Most people who go into the restaurant business don’t know anything about the business side of restaurants.
大多数从事餐饮业的人对餐馆的业务一无所知。
Most people who go into the business are undercapitalized, and therefore, the first time that they experience some difficulty, they go under.
大多数进入这个行业的人都资本不足，因此，他们第一次遇到困难时，就会破产。
Also, a lot of it is very parochial.
而且，其中很多内容都非常狭隘。
People haven’t traveled the world to see what’s out there.
人们还没有环游世界去看看那里有什么。
The best thing I’ve learned is, find the right partner who knows something about running a restaurant, because I know nothing about running a restaurant, but I know a lot about business.
我学到的最好的事情是，找到一个对经营餐厅有所了解的合适合作伙伴，因为我对经营餐厅一无所知，但我对商业了解很多。
How much of your profit do you make on wine and drinks compared to food?
与食品相比，您在葡萄酒和饮料上赚取的利润是多少？
That’s the old cliché.
这是老生常谈。
You know, it’s not —
你知道，这不是 ——
The food is break-even.
食物是收支平衡的。
Is it true or not?
到底是真是假？
No, it’s not true.
不，这不是真的。
I think about the decisions we’ve made out in Montauk where, reputationally, we’ve decided only to serve wine and beer.
我想到了我们在蒙托克做出的决定，从声誉上看，我们决定只提供葡萄酒和啤酒。
No hard liquor.
没有烈性酒。
Could we make more money serving liquor?
我们卖酒能赚更多钱吗？
Absolutely, but it’s not how we run.
当然可以，但这不是我们跑步的方式。
People want to come there for the experience, and we do just fine on the food as well.
人们想要来这里体验，我们的食物也做得很好。
What kind of food is it?
它是什么样的食物？
Think of San Tropez meets Cape Cod.
想想圣特罗佩与科德角的相遇。
Seventy percent of it is some form of lobster, which of course, I don’t eat, but that’s a whole ’nother story.
其中百分之七十是某种形式的龙虾，当然，我不吃龙虾，但那是另一个故事了。
COWEN: And the chef is French?
COWEN：厨师是法国人？
My partner is French, and the key chef who’s overseeing all the culinary experience is French as well.
我的搭档是法国人，负责所有烹饪体验的主要厨师也是法国人。
What have you learned about design by having three restaurants in Long Island?
通过在长岛开设三家餐厅，您对设计学到了什么？
Each one is different.
每一个都是不同的。
Montauk, as I’ve suggested, is a very traditional Cape Cod style, Orient Point mixes a North Fork style with tidbits of Mykonos and what’s been done there.
正如我所建议的，蒙托克是一种非常传统的科德角风格，东方点将北福克风格与米科诺斯岛的花絮和那里所做的事情混合在一起。
Lulu could be on the main drag in Tel Aviv.
露露可能位于特拉维夫的主要街道上。
Last question.
最后一个问题。
What is the next thing you want to learn?
您接下来想学什么？
Language-wise, I’m 1200 days into Spanish.
就语言而言，我已经学西班牙语 1200 天了。
I now need to go spend 30 days someplace where people just talk to me in Spanish.
我现在需要去一个人们只用西班牙语跟我说话的地方呆 30 天。
I think I have a chance.
我想我有机会。
Where will you go?
你要去哪里？
There are many candidate places like Latin America, where English proficiency is not that —
有很多候选地，比如拉丁美洲，英语水平并不是那么 ——
I think Sunny Spain.
我认为阳光明媚的西班牙。
Sunny Spain.
阳光明媚的西班牙。
I can bring my mountain bike as well.
我也可以带我的山地自行车。
So, Spanish is the next thing you want to learn.
所以，西班牙语是你接下来想学的东西。
Spanish is the next thing I want to learn.
西班牙语是我接下来想学的东西。
Marc Rowan, thank you very much.
马克·罗文，非常感谢你。
Absolute pleasure.
绝对的乐趣。
Thank you.
谢谢。