Marc Andreessen on Learning to Love the Humanities (Ep. 152)

There were a set of these shows that basically propelled you — I think the line they would always use is “20 minutes into the future.” Knight Rider was like this.

有一组这样的节目基本上推动了你 —— 我认为他们总是使用的台词是“未来 20 分钟”。假面骑士就是这样的。

Airwolf was like this.

飞狼就是这样的。

There was a whole bunch of shows like this, where it was our world except advanced technology had just arrived.

有一大堆这样的节目，除了先进技术刚刚到来之外，那是我们的世界。

What that meant, how it would fit in, how it would change things — these very compelling fictional portrayals.

这意味着什么，它将如何适应，它将如何改变事物 ——这些非常引人注目的虚构描绘。

I still get a little fired up whenever I get into a modern car.

每当我坐进一辆现代汽车时，我仍然会有点兴奋。

Today, you get in, and it actually looks like the Knight Rider car on the inside.

今天，你坐进去，你会发现它的内部实际上看起来像霹雳游侠的汽车。

I still get a little jolt of excitement that that actually happened.

我仍然对这件事的实际发生感到有点兴奋。

In fact, if you want it to, it will talk to you.

事实上，如果你愿意，它会跟你说话。

I got out here to Silicon Valley, and then I started to get oriented.

我来到硅谷，然后我开始适应。

Then I read this profile that I recommend to everybody, which is, Tom Wolfe, the great novelist, journalist, wrote a profile of Bob Noyce, who was the original founder of Intel and basically the father of the chip industry.

然后我读了我向大家推荐的这篇简介，那就是伟大的小说家、记者汤姆·沃尔夫（Tom Wolfe）写了鲍勃·诺伊斯（Bob Noyce）的简介，他是英特尔的原始创始人，基本上是芯片行业之父。

I read this profile.

我读过这篇简介。

I don’t mean to compare myself with Bob Noyce, but basically, Tom Wolfe describes an archetype.

我并不是想将自己与鲍勃·诺伊斯进行比较，但基本上，汤姆·沃尔夫描述了一个原型。

The archetype is the Midwestern tinkerer who basically comes out of a very practical, farming-oriented, mechanical, dirt under the fingernails, working with machines, with your hands, culture and background — literally for farming, for light mechanical work — and then basically ends up in advanced technology.

原型是中西部的修补匠，他们基本上是从一个非常实用的、以农业为导向的、机械的、指甲下的泥土中出来的，用机器、双手、文化和背景工作——“字面意义上的农业，从事轻型机械工作”——然后基本上最终获得了先进技术。

So, I went in one shot, after reading that profile, from thinking of myself as a fluke to thinking of myself as a cliché.

所以，读完这篇简介后，我从认为自己是侥幸到认为自己是陈词滥调。

I think the cliché definitely applies.

我认为这句陈词滥调绝对适用。

Then I’ve lived the other part of my life in the extremely open-minded, libertine, liberated, progressive, far-left milieu.

然后我在极其开放、放荡、自由、进步、极左的环境中度过了余生。

I don’t live in San Francisco proper, but I live close enough where I feel the gravity well of the most extreme form of progressivism in the country.

我不住在旧金山，但我住得足够近，可以感受到这个国家最极端的进步主义形式的重力。

So, I’ve experienced both extremes.

所以，我经历过这两个极端。

I don’t know, maybe it’s, again, the tinker in me or the practical person.

我不知道，也许这又是我内心的修补匠或者务实的人。

I inclined more towards the middle on that stuff.

在这些事情上我更倾向于中间立场。

I see the issues with both sides over time.

随着时间的推移，我看到了双方的问题。

I see the advantages of both sides.

我看到了双方的优点。

I think the extremes are both probably bad ideas.

我认为极端的想法可能都是坏主意。

I will say I was really struck — my business partner and friend, Ben Horowitz, who’s had a very similar career to mine — he had three kids when he was very young, in his early 20s, when he had no money and was under a lot of stress.

我想说我真的很震惊——我的商业伙伴兼朋友本·霍洛维茨（Ben Horowitz），他的职业生涯与我非常相似——他在 20 岁出头的时候就生了三个孩子，当时他没有钱，压力很大。

He had the polar opposite life trajectory in that dimension than I did.

He had the polar opposite life trajectory in that dimension than I did.

I’ve got a seven-year-old.

我有一个七岁的孩子。

His kids are fully grown.

他的孩子们已经完全长大了。

They’re off in college.

他们上大学了。

They’re beyond college.

他们已经大学毕业了。

They’re graduated, and they’re off in their careers.

他们毕业了，他们的职业生涯也开始了。

What he told me was, having three kids at that age .

他告诉我的是，在那个年纪生了三个孩子。

.

。

.

。

He said he wouldn’t necessarily wish it on anybody in terms of the stress that results.

他说，考虑到由此带来的压力，他不一定希望任何人都这么做。

However, he said that it was a very focusing, motivating thing, and it caused him to be laser-focused, hyper-focused at work.

不过，他说这是一件非常专注、激励人心的事情，这让他在工作中变得高度专注、高度专注。

The cliché in tech is, the workers are like, it’s time for foosball.

科技领域的陈词滥调是，工人们就像，是时候踢足球了。

Then it’s time for the yoga class, and then it’s time for the massage, and then it’s time for volleyball, and then it’s time for the beer bus.

然后是瑜伽课的时间，然后是按摩的时间，然后是排球的时间，然后是啤酒巴士的时间。

I knew Ben when the kids were little.

当孩子们还小的时候我就认识本了。

I’ve known him for 25 years now.

我认识他已经 25 年了。

I worked with him starting in the early ’90s.

我从 20 世纪 90 年代初就开始与他合作。

It was just always very clear he was hyper-focused.

很明显他总是非常专注。

Every minute of work really, really counted.

工作的每一分钟都非常非常重要。

In retrospect, I don’t know whether I could have pulled that off, but there is a different way of working that that level of pressure puts you under that, at least in his case, worked very well.

回想起来，我不知道我是否能做到这一点，但有一种不同的工作方式，这种程度的压力让你承受这种压力，至少对他来说，效果很好。

Aspirationally, I would have been a Medici.

我的愿望是成为美第奇家族的一员。

Had I not been a Medici, I would have tried to get as close to the Medici as I possibly could.

如果我不是美第奇家族，我会尽可能地接近美第奇家族。

I would like to think I would have been some form of either a proto-scientist or proto-engineer.

我想我会是某种形式的原始科学家或原始工程师。

DaVinci’s notebooks are full of engineering — he was an engineer — they were full of engineering diagrams and plans, including things that have, to this day, never been built.

达芬奇的笔记本充满了工程学——“他是一名工程师”——它们充满了工程图表和计划，包括迄今为止从未建造过的东西。

He actually built military machines at one point, and maybe there was proto-engineering going on there.

他实际上曾经建造过军事机器，也许那里正在进行原型工程。

Then, as you said, finance — they created an entire world of that really helped develop economy as we know it today, from a very early stage.

然后，正如你所说，金融——他们创造了一个真正帮助我们今天所知的经济发展的世界，从很早的阶段开始。

Being part of that banking system, I think, would have been very exciting at that time.

Being part of that banking system, I think, would have been very exciting at that time.

I hopefully would have been able to talk myself into one of those.

I hopefully would have been able to talk myself into one of those.

Sculpting — I think I lack the talent, so maybe banking instead.

雕刻 — 我想我缺乏天赋，所以也许可以做银行业。

Maybe I could have done the irrigation system.

也许我可以做灌溉系统。

That would have been a good way to get the rest to try to put up with me.

这本来是让其他人尝试忍受我的好方法。

I probably keep circling around the same small set of topics around, basically, how do people organize?

我可能一直围绕着同样的一小部分主题，基本上，人们如何组织？

Then, what happens when they do?

那么，当他们这样做时会发生什么呢？

And then, how do they behave?

然后，他们的行为如何？

I keep circling around that.

我一直围绕着这个问题转圈。

I’ve been rereading James Burnham’s books.

我一直在重读詹姆斯·伯纳姆的书。

Had a particular fascination for him for the last few years.

Had a particular fascination for him for the last few years.

I’m actually finishing a reread of those books right now.

事实上，我现在正在重读这些书。

So, books like that.

所以，诸如此类的书。

I find for the really good books now that I read, I don’t understand.

I find for the really good books now that I read, I don’t understand.

I don’t have any formal training, like I don’t have any formal training in history.

我没有接受过任何正式的培训，就像我没有接受过任何正式的历史培训一样。

I took one history class at University of Illinois.

我在伊利诺伊大学上了一堂历史课。

Very good engineering school — they let us take one humanities elective.

非常好的工程学校 ——他们让我们选修一门人文学科。

I took a history class, one class.

我上了历史课，一节课。

I don’t have any formal foundation in history or philosophy or economics or political science, sociology.

我在历史、哲学、经济学、政治学、社会学方面没有任何正式的基础。

It actually reminds me of learning technology, I don’t understand a lot of what they’re talking about the first time.

这其实让我想起了学习技术，第一次他们讲的很多东西我都听不懂。

Then I will read six other books, and the pieces will start to fall into place, I’ll read the history.

然后我会读其他六本书，各个部分将开始就位，我会读历史。

The pieces will start to fall into place, and then I go back, and I read it again and I’m like, “Okay, this is what they’re talking about.” It’s reconstructing, for me, a 500-year tradition piecemeal.

这些碎片将开始就位，然后我回去，再读一遍，我想，“好吧，这就是他们在谈论的内容。”对我来说，它正在零碎地重建一个 500 年的传统。

Those books tend to get reread a lot.

这些书往往会被反复阅读很多次。

There’s an older tradition in the humanities, and I’m not discovering anything here.

人文学科有一个古老的传统，但我在这里没有发现任何东西。

It’s like the history of philosophy — philosophy pre the 1960s, as it turns out, I’ve got quite fascinated.

这就像哲学史——20世纪60年代之前的哲学，事实证明，我非常着迷。

Through Burnham, I’ve gotten quite fascinated with sociology in the 1910s, 1920s.

Through Burnham, I’ve gotten quite fascinated with sociology in the 1910s, 1920s.

It was a very different kind of thing.

这是一种非常不同的事情。

I was fascinated by the Second Industrial Revolution a while ago, and I found this book on Google Books about David Wells, who was an economist in the 1880s.

不久前，我对第二次工业革命很感兴趣，在 Google 图书上找到了这本关于 1880 年代经济学家大卫·威尔斯 (David Wells) 的书。

He basically just describes how the Second Industrial Revolution rolled out at that time.

He basically just describes how the Second Industrial Revolution rolled out at that time.

He just tells the story.

他只是讲故事。

He goes through, like, “Here’s what’s happening.” That was an economics book with no formulas.

He goes through, like, “Here’s what’s happening.”那是一本没有公式的经济学书。

The form of humanities that resonates me is like that.

The form of humanities that resonates me is like that.

It’s history, economics, philosophy, politics merged.

It’s history, economics, philosophy, politics merged.

And then, at least in my case, you’re trying to find the people who are analytical and descriptive, as opposed to prescriptive, but it was a different kind of thing.

然后，至少就我而言，你试图找到具有分析性和描述性的人，而不是规定性的人，但这是一种不同的事情。

You could argue that they were not rigorous.

你可能会说它们不严谨。

You could argue that they were storytelling and not being scientific, but I think they were being scientific in their way at that time.

You could argue that they were storytelling and not being scientific, but I think they were being scientific in their way at that time.

They had their issues, but they didn’t have our issues.

They had their issues, but they didn’t have our issues.

Everything today is filtered through our politics.

Everything today is filtered through our politics.

It’s really hard to understand, in my view, how people thought, especially before the 1960s, and again, I think, even before the 1930s, through our political lens.

在我看来，通过我们的政治视角，人们的想法真的很难理解，特别是在 20 世纪 60 年代之前，甚至在 1930 年代之前。

You have to go back and reconstruct what they actually talked about at that time.

你必须回去重建他们当时实际谈论的内容。

It turns out to be more interesting than I would have thought.

It turns out to be more interesting than I would have thought.

The thing about Twitter — is Twitter an engine or a camera?

The thing about Twitter — is Twitter an engine or a camera?

This prevailing view is that .

普遍的观点是。

.

。

.

。

I say social media broadly, but Twitter specifically because it’s where the elites are — the intellectual elites, the social elites.

I say social media broadly, but Twitter specifically because it’s where the elites are — the intellectual elites, the social elites.

The prevailing wisdom on Twitter is that it’s primarily an engine.

The prevailing wisdom on Twitter is that it’s primarily an engine.

It’s changing behavior for better or worse.

它正在改变行为，无论好坏。

I actually tend to think it’s at least as much a camera.

I actually tend to think it’s at least as much a camera.

It’s like a giant X-ray machine.

它就像一个巨大的X光机。

You’ve got this phenomenon, which is just fascinating, where you have all of these public figures, all of these people in positions of authority — in a lot of cases, great authority — the leading legal theorists of our time, leading politicians, all these businesspeople.

你看到了这种令人着迷的现象，所有这些公众人物，所有这些处于权威地位的人——“在很多情况下，伟大的权威”——我们这个时代领先的法律理论家，领先的政治家，所有这些商人。

And they tweet, and all of a sudden, it’s like, “Oh, that’s who you actually are.

And they tweet, and all of a sudden, it’s like, “Oh, that’s who you actually are.

These are the things you actually think.” To your point, “This is your actual level of thought.

这些都是你真实的想法。” To your point, “This is your actual level of thought.

Oh, these are the delusions you’re operating under.”

Oh, these are the delusions you’re operating under.”

Our friend Martin Gurri has this thesis of collapsing authority in the modern world.

Our friend Martin Gurri has this thesis of collapsing authority in the modern world.

I think a lot of it is the authority figures just basically showing up and exposing the emperor, quite literally, in a lot of cases has no clothes.

我认为很多都是权威人物基本上出现并揭露皇帝，毫不夸张地说，在很多情况下没有穿衣服。

The fact that that phenomenon is so widespread and not more recognized, and then that it continues — I just think it’s absolutely fascinating.

事实上，这种现象如此普遍，却没有得到更多人的认可，而且它还在继续……我只是认为这绝对令人着迷。

There’s a guy who wrote a book referring to this kind of investing as the “last liberal art,” which is to say, you might think it’s basically an application of business or finance — and it is, to a certain extent.

有一个人写了一本书，将这种投资称为“最后的文科”，也就是说，你可能会认为它基本上是商业或金融的应用 ——在某种程度上，确实如此。

You might think it’s an application of technology — and it is, to a certain extent.

你可能会认为这是技术的应用 ——在某种程度上确实如此。

But really, what you’re dealing with is a large amount of human behavior.

But really, what you’re dealing with is a large amount of human behavior.

You’re dealing with human behavior on the part of all the people in the industry and all the things that we’re doing and our own behavior and our own biases and our own ability to think clearly and all the people we coach and work with.

你要处理的是行业内所有人的人类行为、我们正在做的所有事情、我们自己的行为、我们自己的偏见、我们自己清晰思考的能力以及我们指导和共事的所有人。

But then, look, these products launch, and they have to take in the market.

但是，你看，这些产品推出后，它们必须占领市场。

And to take in the market, they have to get a large number of people — who are busy already in their daily lives out in the world — to basically take something new seriously, and to want to use it and want to buy it and pay for it and have it really affect how they live.

为了占领市场，他们必须让大量的人（他们在世界各地的日常生活中已经很忙碌）基本上认真对待新事物，想要使用它，想要购买它并为其付费，并让它真正影响他们的生活方式。

What I’m figuring out over time is the psychology-sociology elements are as important or more important than the business finance elements or the technology elements.

随着时间的推移，我发现心理学社会学元素与商业金融元素或技术元素同样重要，甚至更重要。

Like I said, it’s not something that comes naturally.

就像我说的，这不是自然而然的事情。

Those of us like me — a lot of us came up through the engineering background.

我们这些像我一样的人 ——我们中的很多人都有工程背景。

We were quite literally never trained in human behavior.

我们确实从未接受过人类行为方面的训练。

We never trained in sociology or psychology or any of these things.

我们从未接受过社会学或心理学或任何这些方面的培训。

We back into this through harsh experience over time.

随着时间的推移，我们通过严酷的经历回到了这一点。

But I’m always curious, if people act a certain way, it’s like, okay, is that new behavior or is it actually a very old form of behavior?

但我总是很好奇，如果人们以某种​​方式行事，那么，好吧，这是新行为还是实际上是一种非常古老的行为形式？

Is this something new people are only doing today, or have they been doing this kind of thing for a long time?

这是新人们今天才做的事情，还是他们已经做了很长时间了？

If they’ve been doing this kind of thing for a long time, then there’s something deep about it.

如果他们已经做了很长时间这样的事情，那么其中就有一些深刻的东西。

For me, it’s, okay, read backward and try to figure out, what actually is this form of behavior?

对我来说，好吧，向后阅读并尝试弄清楚，这种行为形式到底是什么？

Is it actually that deep?

其实有那么深吗？

If it’s a Lindy thing, if people have been acting a certain way for thousands of years, they’re highly likely to continue acting a certain way for thousands of years.

如果这是林迪的事情，如果人们几千年来一直以某种方式行事，那么他们很可能会继续以某种方式行事几千年。

You can’t predict people per se, but at least you can start to predict the patterns of behavior.

你无法预测人们本身，但至少你可以开始预测行为模式。

And at least I feel a lot more comfortable when I have that kind of grounding as opposed to just trying to deal with people in the moment.

And at least I feel a lot more comfortable when I have that kind of grounding as opposed to just trying to deal with people in the moment.

Mark: Yes.

马克：是的。

There are a couple of big, obvious tempting ones.

有几个大的、明显的诱人的。

Athens, the trial of Socrates would have been exciting to see.

雅典，苏格拉底的审判将会令人兴奋。

Socrates had it coming.

苏格拉底已经来了。

It would have been fascinating to see that play out, the first modern cancellation.

如果能看到这样的结果，那将是令人着迷的，这是现代第一次取消。

I think the era of de’ Medici.

我认为是德美第奇时代。

A month in the court of Lorenzo would have been fascinating.

在洛伦佐宫廷待一个月会很有趣。

I think that the Second Industrial Revolution, Edison’s lab, J.

我认为第二次工业革命，爱迪生的实验室，J.

Pierpont Morgan.

皮尔庞特·摩根.

The original J.P.

原来的 J.P.

Morgan was a banker, and he operated primarily with that.

摩根是一名银行家，他主要以此为业。

He financed large-scale industrial enterprises, like the railroads, but he actually was also a venture capitalist in his spare time.

他为铁路等大型工业企业提供资金，但业余时间他实际上也是一名风险投资家。

He financed Edison’s efforts in a significant way.

他为爱迪生的努力提供了大量资助。

In fact, he was the first customer of Edison’s light bulb system for the house.

事实上，他是爱迪生为这座房子设计的灯泡系统的第一个客户。

Edison came and installed the first indoor lighting in the world in J.P.

爱迪生来到 J.P. 并安装了世界上第一个室内照明设备。

Morgan’s library.

摩根的图书馆。

Then it caught on fire and burnt the library down, and then J.P.

然后它着火了，烧毁了图书馆，然后 J.P.

Morgan, to his enormous credit, rebuilt the library and hired Edison to do it all over again.

值得称赞的是，摩根重建了图书馆，并聘请爱迪生重新进行这一切。

That moment, extending through the 1920s, was in a lot of ways, in my view, the most relevant origin of what we’re living through today.

在我看来，那个贯穿 20 年代的时刻在很多方面都是我们今天所经历的事情最相关的起源。

To be in that 1880-to-1925 period, I think, would have been really great.

我认为，如果生活在 1880 年至 1925 年间，那就太好了。

Mark: I love the little Blackberry that had the four-line LED display and the keyboard and ran on AA batteries.

马克：我喜欢这款小黑莓手机，它有四行 LED 显示屏和键盘，使用 AA 电池。

I loved that little guy.

我喜欢那个小家伙。

I still miss him.

我仍然想念他。

I could type like crazy on that guy.

我可以疯狂地对那个家伙打字。

I took notes on a four-line LED display for years.

多年来我一直在四行 LED 显示屏上做笔记。

Mark: It was better for me for typing.

马克：打字对我来说更好。

Yes, I’ve missed it ever since.

是的，从那以后我就一直想念它。

What else no longer exists?

还有什么不再存在了？

It’s really fun to drive old cars.

驾驶旧车真的很有趣。

It’s very, very fun to drive old cars.

驾驶旧车非常非常有趣。

The ’60s muscle cars are super fun to drive.

60 年代的肌肉车驾驶起来非常有趣。

It does very quickly educate you as to why modern cars are what they are.

它确实很快就能让您了解现代汽车为何如此。

It turns out old cars were more like pickup trucks, even if they look like sports cars.

事实证明，旧车更像是皮卡车，尽管它们看起来像跑车。

Those are a lot of fun.

这些很有趣。

Mark: I do.

马克：我愿意。

This is actually an exciting moment on that topic for those of us who love these things.

对于我们这些热爱这些事物的人来说，这实际上是一个令人兴奋的时刻。

I use Feedly, which I like a great deal.

我使用 Feedly，我非常喜欢它。

It’s a guy.

这是一个男人。

The guy who does it is a guy who used to work for us, a wonderful guy.

做这件事的人是一个曾经为我们工作过的人，一个很棒的人。

I think it’s a great product and the inheritor of the now-lost Google Reader, the ruthlessly executed Google Reader.

我认为它是一个伟大的产品，是现已失传的 Google Reader 的继承者，是被无情执行的 Google Reader。

This is talking about books, but Substack — one of our companies — has a new reader.

这里谈论的是书籍，但是 Substack ——我们的公司之一——有了新的读者。

It’s primarily for reading Substack.

它主要用于读取 Substack。

It basically is recreating, in my view, the best of what Google Reader had.

在我看来，它基本上是在重新创造 Google Reader 的最佳功能。

That’s the other one that is getting a lot of use right now.

这是目前得到大量使用的另一种方法。

I use both of those.

我都用这两个。

Mark: RSS is one of those things.

马克：RSS 就是其中之一。

I would say this gets into a broader, overarching, huge debate-fight happening in the tech industry right now.

我想说，这引发了科技行业目前正在发生的一场更广泛、更全面、更大规模的争论。

Internet got built on two models, which are diametrically opposed.

互联网建立在两种截然相反的模型之上。

One model was open source, open protocols, and networks.

一种模型是开源、开放协议和网络。

This was originally TCP/IP.

这最初是 TCP/IP。

Then there was HTTP for the web.

然后是网络 HTTP。

There was SMTP for email, and there was NNTP for Usenet once upon a time — discussion groups and so forth.

电子邮件有 SMTP，曾经有 Usenet 的 NNTP——讨论组等等。

In college and then coming up, a lot of the work we did at Netscape was around those protocols, SSL.

在大学期间以及之后的日子里，我们在 Netscape 所做的很多工作都是围绕这些协议 SSL 进行的。

We really created Netscape, another one of these.

我们确实创建了 Netscape，这是其中的另一个。

So protocols — computer languages, if you will — open, not tied to a company.

所以协议 — 计算机语言，如果你愿意的话 — 开放，不与公司绑定。

Anybody can implement against them, the same way anybody can be on the internet, anybody can exchange email, anybody can be on the web.

任何人都可以针对它们实施攻击，就像任何人都可以上网、任何人都可以交换电子邮件、任何人都可以上网一样。

The reason that those statements are true is because those are open protocols.

这些陈述之所以正确，是因为它们是开放协议。

Then there’s this other, diametrically opposed kind of world, which I’m also very involved in and very excited about, which is this world of the internet companies.

还有另一个截然相反的世界，我也非常参与其中并且非常兴奋，这就是互联网公司的世界。

The actual Google and Facebook and all these companies over the years — many with us today, and long gone — that built all these incredible services that we live in and get huge amounts of value out of.

多年来，真正的谷歌和 Facebook 以及所有这些公司——“许多今天与我们同在，但早已消失”——构建了我们赖以生存的所有这些令人难以置信的服务，并从中获得了巨大的价值。

The internet companies build internet services.

互联网公司提供互联网服务。

They don’t tend as much to build internet protocols.

他们不太倾向于构建互联网协议。

They tend to build these walled gardens, these kinds of contained environments.

他们倾向于建造这些有围墙的花园，这些封闭的环境。

They exercise a lot of control.

他们行使很大的控制权。

There are huge debates over that control.

关于这种控制存在着巨大的争论。

We can have a long discussion about that.

我们可以对此进行长时间的讨论。

There are big virtues to that level of control in terms of their ability to maintain a very consistent user experience.

就维持非常一致的用户体验的能力而言，这种控制水平有很大的优点。

I basically go through that to say, I think RSS was from that first world of networks.

我基本上通过这句话说，我认为 RSS 是来自第一个网络世界。

It was a protocol.

这是一个协议。

It got supported by a lot of people.

它得到了很多人的支持。

It didn’t quite get to the level of critical mass that was required before, basically, the social networks took off.

基本上，它还没有达到社交网络起飞之前所需的临界质量水平。

The social networks were on the other side.

社交网络在另一边。

They were from companies like Facebook and Twitter and MySpace, and others at the time.

他们来自 Facebook、Twitter、MySpace 等公司以及当时的其他公司。

In essence, the social networks stole their lunch money, stole RSS’s lunch money.

从本质上讲，社交网络偷了他们的午餐钱，偷了 RSS 的午餐钱。

The social networks just got so good so fast, they just absorbed a lot of the energy that was going into blogging and going into RSS.

社交网络变得如此出色如此之快，它们吸收了博客和 RSS 中的大量精力。

By the way, podcasts is the other area.

顺便说一下，播客是另一个领域。

There were podcast companies, but nobody ever really got to critical mass.

有播客公司，但没有人真正达到临界质量。

Podcasts actually have done quite well as a network.

播客作为一个网络实际上已经做得很好了。

They’re doing pretty well.

他们做得很好。

It’s still not quite what you want it to be like.

它仍然不是你想要的样子。

Podcast search is still a big problem.

播客搜索仍然是一个大问题。

Mark: We’re also back to that same tension again, which is okay.

马克：我们又回到了同样的紧张状态，这没关系。

Now we have YouTube and Spotify.

现在我们有 YouTube 和 Spotify。

You’ve got these major players in the form of YouTube, Google, and then Spotify — YouTube doing videos, and then Spotify doing podcasts, and a lot of people cross-posted between those.

这些主要参与者包括 YouTube、Google，然后是 Spotify ——YouTube 制作视频，然后 Spotify 制作播客，很多人在这些网站之间交叉发布内容。

Both YouTube and Spotify have very highly prioritized this kind of spoken-word content: interviews, podcasts, and so forth.

YouTube 和 Spotify 都非常重视此类口语内容：采访、播客等。

There’s the potential that we’re sitting here five years from now, and this open podcast world has really diminished the same way that the blogging RSS world diminished, and then YouTube and Spotify have taken over podcasts in the same way that Facebook and Twitter took over text content, or whatever.

五年后，我们可能坐在这里，这个开放的播客世界确实已经衰落，就像博客 RSS 世界衰落一样，然后 YouTube 和 Spotify 接管了播客，就像 Facebook 和 Twitter 接管文本内容一样。

To your point, maybe that’d be a good direction in some ways.

就你的观点而言，也许这在某些方面是一个好的方向。

Maybe that’d be a bad direction in other ways.

也许从其他方面来说这会是一个糟糕的方向。

This whole thing — I wanted to go through it because this is why we’re so excited about this new Web3 idea.

整件事 — 我想仔细看看，因为这就是为什么我们对这个新的 Web3 想法如此兴奋。

It’s going to do these elaborations of these technologies.

它将对这些技术进行详细阐述。

So-called crypto and blockchain is like that.

所谓的加密货币和区块链就是这样。

There is this new way of envisioning this kind of thing, which basically is as a network but with money, a network but with trust.

有一种新的方式来设想这种事情，它基本上是一个有金钱的网络，一个有信任的网络。

These open protocols, open networks, but built on this new kind of Web3 infrastructure that gives you a very different way to realize both a high-trust environment and also to realize actual economic incentives.

这些开放协议、开放网络，但建立在这种新型 Web3 基础设施之上，为您提供了一种非常不同的方式来实现高度信任的环境，并实现实际的经济激励。

What I’m hoping, and what we’re actually seeking at the firm, what we’re trying very hard to fund — I’m hoping, for example, for podcasts.

我的希望是什么，我们在公司真正寻求的是什么，我们正在努力资助什么 —— 我希望，例如，播客。

I’m hoping five years from now, there will be these thriving Web3 podcast environments that will be open.

我希望五年后，这些繁荣的 Web3 播客环境将会开放。

We’ll have this anarchic, uncontrolled kind of element that I think you and I both like.

我们将拥有这种无政府主义、不受控制的元素，我想你和我都喜欢这种元素。

However, we’ll have a higher level of trust, and we’ll have a higher level of monetary incentive, an economic incentive than the open networks of the past usually did.

然而，与过去的开放网络通常相比，我们将拥有更高水平的信任，并且我们将拥有更高水平的货币激励，即经济激励。

So, there’s this third way.

所以，就有了第三种方法。

This is still early, but we’re quite optimistic that there might be a new way to build these systems.

现在还为时过早，但我们非常乐观地认为可能会有一种新的方法来构建这些系统。

I’m excited to see what happens.

我很高兴看到会发生什么。

I’m glad that Joe Rogan is making money.

我很高兴乔·罗根能赚钱。

Joe Rogan should not have to choose.

乔·罗根不应该做出选择。

He should not have to choose between being part of an open internet and basically not having a way to make money, and then going into a silo and having that be the way that he makes money like that.

他不应该在成为开放互联网的一部分并且基本上没有赚钱的方式，然后进入筒仓并以这种方式赚钱之间做出选择。

That’s the binary choice that we’ve had with all of these internet architecture decisions now for 30 years, 40 years, and it shouldn’t have to be a choice.

这就是 30 年、40 年来我们对所有这些互联网架构决策所做的二元选择，而且它不应该是一个选择。

People should be able to get paid.

人们应该能够获得报酬。

What will strike you as an obvious statement, to a lot of people, it’s still a controversial statement.

你可能会觉得这是一个显而易见的声明，但对很多人来说，这仍然是一个有争议的声明。

Incentives matter, economics matter.

激励很重要，经济也很重要。

It is better, in general, when there is a way for there to be monetary value assigned to productive work.

一般来说，如果有办法为生产性工作分配货币价值，那就更好了。

More interesting things happen.

更有趣的事情发生了。

Substack is a great case study of this.

Substack 是一个很好的案例研究。

The quality and the level of writing on Substack is just absolutely extraordinary.

Substack 上的写作质量和水平绝对是非凡的。

And it turns out it’s this great, amazing thing, which is, if you let people write for money, it turns out they write a lot of really good stuff.

事实证明，这是一件伟大而令人惊奇的事情，也就是说，如果你让人们为了钱而写作，结果他们会写出很多真正的好东西。

So, that’s the most obvious and immediate thing.

所以，这是最明显、最直接的事情。

It’s entirely possible in the future, for example, you’ll have entire forms of media like video games and sporting events and music and so forth that will monetize in completely different ways through the creation of unique digital property that gets sold and trades.

未来这是完全有可能的，例如，您将拥有完整形式的媒体，如视频游戏、体育赛事和音乐等，它们将通过创建可出售和交易的独特数字财产以完全不同的方式货币化。

Look, it’s injecting economics.

看，它正在注入经济。

It’s injecting, at a very fundamental level, internet-native money, internet-native economics, and incentives into a system that simply hasn’t had that.

它从根本上将互联网原生货币、互联网原生经济和激励机制注入到一个根本不具备这些的系统中。

Of course, this isn’t to say that everything needs to cost money.

当然，这并不是说一切都需要花钱。

This isn’t to say that lots of people won’t choose to have things be free.

这并不是说很多人不会选择免费的东西。

But let me put it this way — the hard decision between total independence and no money, and then having a traditional contractual relationship with one company — that shouldn’t be the tradeoff.

但让我这样说——“在完全独立和没有钱之间做出艰难的决定，然后与一家公司建立传统的合同关系”——这不应该是一种权衡。

There should be lots of room in the middle for experimentation, and that’s the zone we’re heading into now.

中间应该有很大的实验空间，这就是我们现在要进入的区域。

I don’t really look at it top-down.

我并没有真正从上到下地看待它。

I don’t really look at it as, okay, this, therefore, has to lead to an expansion of a hundred x in the media business.

我并不是真的这么认为，好吧，因此，这必须导致媒体业务扩大一百倍。

Maybe, I think, it grows the media business, but it doesn’t have to cause it to explode like that, but having it be a better proposition for creators, having it be a better proposition for consumers, having content come into existence that didn’t exist before.

我认为，也许它会促进媒体业务的增长，但不一定会导致它像那样爆炸式增长，而是让它成为创作者更好的主张，让它成为消费者更好的主张，让以前不存在的内容出现。

Also, just as you think about scale — scale on these things is really hard to forecast, as it turns out, and the reason is, we live in a world now, very different from the prior worlds.

另外，正如你考虑规模一样——事实证明，这些事情的规模确实很难预测，原因是，我们现在生活在一个与以前的世界非常不同的世界。

We live in a world where we now have five billion directly addressable consumers online at any moment for any new thing.

我们生活在这样一个世界，现在有 50 亿可以直接在线访问的消费者，随时可以购买任何新事物。

So, one of the things that we’re finding in our day job is it’s getting really hard to forecast market size for any of these new things.

因此，我们在日常工作中发现的一件事是，预测这些新事物的市场规模变得非常困难。

It goes back to, if they don’t have uptake in consumer psychology, then, of course, they’re going to be small, but when these things run, they can really run.

可以追溯到，如果他们不了解消费者心理，那么，他们的规模当然会很小，但是当这些东西运行时，它们就可以真正运行。

Just look at the most recent example, TikTok.

看看最近的例子，TikTok。

Who knew that short-term videos were going to be that big?

谁知道短期视频会这么大？

It just turns out that 5 billion people is a significant percentage that like short-term videos.

事实证明，50 亿人喜欢短视频，这个比例相当大。

All of a sudden, it’s this huge business.

突然之间，这是一项巨大的业务。

I think these things are unpredictable in the scope, the scale that they can reach, and I think we might be surprised as to the upside about what happens when you start to make some of these things possible.

我认为这些事情的范围和规模是不可预测的，而且我认为我们可能会对当你开始使其中一些事情成为可能时所发生的好处感到惊讶。

Gmail’s an example of what you’re talking about.

Gmail 就是您所说的一个例子。

Call it a semi-walled garden.

称其为半围墙花园。

It’s an environment that you can live in.

这是一个你可以居住的环境。

It’s complete UI .

这是完整的用户界面。

It’s got all these features.

它具有所有这些功能。

It does give you the ability to send email.

它确实使您能够发送电子邮件。

You can still send and receive email with Gmail, with other email clients using SMTP.

您仍然可以使用 Gmail 以及使用 SMTP 的其他电子邮件客户端发送和接收电子邮件。

It’s still in there, but what users experienced — to your point — they experienced this new intermediary, and then Gmail has its own anti-spam algorithm.

它仍然在那里，但是用户所经历的 —— 按照你的观点 —— 他们经历了这个新的中介，然后Gmail就有了自己的反垃圾邮件算法。

I’ll give an example.

我举个例子。

Gmail is not censoring content yet that I know of, but I think it’s basically any day now.

据我所知，Gmail 还没有审查内容，但我认为现在基本上每天都会这样。

They could start at any moment.

他们随时可以开始。

The people living and working inside Gmail are going to start to have the same experience that they have in any intermediary or gatekeeper that starts censoring content.

在 Gmail 中生活和工作的人们将开始拥有与开始审查内容的任何中介或看门人相同的体验。

Actually, online retailers deal with this already.

事实上，在线零售商已经在处理这个问题了。

Online retailers are always fighting, basically, all of their email to their customers getting classified as spam.

基本上，在线零售商总是在与所有发给客户的电子邮件被归类为垃圾邮件作斗争。

It’s the Gmail spam engine that does that.

Gmail 垃圾邮件引擎就是这样做的。

It’s not SMTP.

这不是 SMTP。

In this case, a gatekeeping function emerges.

在这种情况下，看门功能就出现了。

The argument, basically, is email is no longer open.

基本上，争论的焦点是电子邮件不再开放。

It’s now closed.

现在已经关闭了。

It’s been moved from that first category of network to this second category of company, and we’ve lost the anarchic and freewheeling aspect of it.

它已经从第一类网络转移到第二类公司，我们已经失去了它的无政府主义和随心所欲的一面。

Look, there is some truth to that.

听着，这话有一定道理。

Notwithstanding that, you can still build your own email system and in fact, Google built their own.

尽管如此，您仍然可以构建自己的电子邮件系统，事实上，谷歌也构建了自己的电子邮件系统。

At one point, everybody was on Yahoo mail.

有一段时间，每个人都在使用雅虎邮箱。

Now everybody’s on Gmail.

现在每个人都在使用 Gmail。

I would describe it as a little bit the loyalty, voice, and exit Hirschman framework, which is, if you’re just in a walled garden, you have loyalty or voice, but you really don’t have exit.

我会把它描述为忠诚度、声音和退出赫希曼框架，也就是说，如果你只是在一个有围墙的花园里，你有忠诚度或声音，但你真的没有退出。

Again, people blame themselves.

人们再次责备自己。

People blame this on policies, the companies, whatever, and that has something to do with it.

人们将此归咎于政策、公司等等，这与此有关。

But it’s also an architectural observation, which is, it’s the difference between something getting built just by a company versus something getting built by a network.

但这也是一种架构观察，即仅由公司构建的东西与由网络构建的东西之间的区别。

If there is an underlying network, then there is exit.

如果有底层网络，那么就有退出。

In a lot of cases, the Web3 things that we’re backing — they’re not even companies; they’re projects.

在很多情况下，我们支持的 Web3 事物 ——它们甚至不是公司；它们是公司。他们是项目。

They are Web3 projects out of the gate.

它们是 Web3 项目。

We’re not even buying equity; we’re buying tokens.

我们甚至不购买股权；我们正在购买代币。

They’re decentralized from the very beginning, and they’re open protocols from the very beginning.

它们从一开始就是去中心化的，并且从一开始就是开放协议。

So, it’s this alternate way of looking at the world, alternate way of designing systems.

所以，这是看待世界的另一种方式，设计系统的另一种方式。

Then it opens up this exit option, and I think that, as usual with any human system, it turns out that matters a lot.

然后它打开了这个退出选项，我认为，就像任何人类系统一样，事实证明这很重要。

There are going to be technological approaches — virtual reality, augmented reality — in the future that give you basically the recreation of a physical meeting environment.

未来将会有一些技术方法——“虚拟现实、增强现实”——基本上可以为您提供物理会议环境的娱乐。

They already exist.

它们已经存在了。

These things already exist.

这些东西已经存在了。

Our friend Balaji is teaching courses right now in VR in a virtual classroom.

我们的朋友巴拉吉现在正在虚拟教室中通过 VR 教授课程。

These technologies do already exist.

这些技术确实已经存在。

That will happen.

那将会发生。

I think that will be a big deal.

我认为这将是一件大事。

Having said that, I don’t think that’s necessarily the goal.

话虽如此，我认为这不一定是目标。

I don’t think that a hybrid meeting is necessarily an equilibrium, or at least a primary equilibrium.

我认为混合会议不一定是均衡，或者至少是主要均衡。

I’m not sure if it’s something that you need to center in on.

我不确定这是否是您需要关注的事情。

The reason I say that is because, one, it’s reductive, or it’s looking backwards, which is to say, we used to have in-person meetings, and now we have some people remote, so now we need hybrid meetings.

我之所以这么说，是因为，第一，它是还原性的，或者说是向后看的，也就是说，我们以前有面对面的会议，现在我们有一些人远程会议，所以现在我们需要混合会议。

It’s working backwards from that.

它是从那开始倒退的。

Well, there’s another way to think about that, which is, actually, maybe we shouldn’t try to have hybrid meetings.

好吧，还有另一种思考方式，实际上，也许我们不应该尝试召开混合会议。

Maybe, in fact, hybrid meetings are the exact wrong idea.

事实上，也许混合会议是完全错误的想法。

Maybe they’re the wrong idea because, maybe, instead of combining the best elements of being local and being remote, maybe they combine the worst elements of being local and being remote.

也许他们的想法是错误的，因为也许他们没有结合本地和远程的最佳元素，而是结合了本地和远程的最差元素。

And maybe instead, what we want to do is shift more to the edges, and we want to have — number one, we want to have communication systems and management systems that are really built for remote work, first and primarily.

也许相反，我们想要做的是更多地转移到边缘，我们想要拥有 - 第一，我们想要拥有真正为远程工作而构建的通信系统和管理系统，首先也是主要的。

And we have some of those, and some of those now work really well.

我们有其中一些，其中一些现在效果非常好。

Then maybe, when we get people together, we don’t want to have meetings.

那么也许，当我们把人们聚集在一起时，我们不想开会。

Maybe we want to have very immersive, very social, very human bonding — a much more intense level of actual human interaction and relationship building than you have in a meeting.

也许我们想要建立一种非常身临其境、非常社交、非常人性化的联系——比会议中实际的人际互动和关系建设程度要高得多。

Take a step back on this.

退后一步。

The office is an artifact of the technology of a time and place.

办公室是某个时间和地点的技术产物。

I mentioned the Second Industrial Revolution.

我提到了第二次工业革命。

The office is a derivation of the factory.

办公室是工厂的衍生品。

There was the factory and the idea of mass production, and then there was the idea of all the time-and-motion studies and all these guys who did that.

有工厂和大规模生产的想法，然后有所有时间和动作研究的想法以及所有这样做的人。

And out of that, you go back, look at the history — you’ve got schools, you’ve got jails as you see them today, and then you’ve got offices.

由此，你回头看看历史 —— 你有学校，你有你今天看到的监狱，然后你有办公室。

It’s this idea that you have to bring people together in this highly orchestrated, mechanistic, mass way.

这个想法是，你必须以这种高度精心策划的、机械的、大规模的方式将人们聚集在一起。

Empires — fun historical fact: The Roman Empire was not run out of offices.

帝国 ——有趣的历史事实：罗马帝国并没有失去官职。

They ran the world, yet there was no office.

他们统治着世界，但没有办公室。

There was no office building.

没有办公楼。

The Roman aristocrats worked out of their homes, and then they went to the Senate, and then they went to their country house.

罗马贵族在家里工作，然后去元老院，然后又去乡间别墅。

There was no office building for administering the Roman Empire.

没有管理罗马帝国的办公楼。

I don’t know about the British Empire.

我不知道大英帝国。

I’m guessing they probably didn’t have a lot of offices.

我猜他们可能没有很多办公室。

They maybe had a couple of offices in London, but they probably didn’t have a lot of offices either.

他们可能在伦敦有几个办事处，但也可能没有很多办事处。

This office construct is a time-and-place-kind of thing.

这种办公室结构是一种时间和地点的东西。

You need some punch card.

你需要一些打孔卡。

You need to get people in at eight o’clock.

你需要在八点钟让人们进来。

They need to leave at five o’clock.

他们需要五点钟出发。

The calendar is regimented by half-hour or hour-long meetings.

日历由半小时或一小时的会议组成。

In a school or prison, the bell goes off at 8:00 a.m.

在学校或监狱，铃声在上午 8:00 响起。

In the office environment, the iPhone alarm goes off, and it’s time for me to go to my meeting.

在办公室环境中，iPhone 闹钟响起，我该去开会了。

That’s an artifact of a time and place.

这是某个时间和地点的产物。

We now have all of these new technologies they didn’t have a hundred years ago.

我们现在拥有一百年前他们没有的所有这些新技术。

We’ve got video.

我们有视频。

We’ve got Slack.

我们有 Slack。

We’ve got text.

我们有文字。

We’ve got WhatsApp.

我们有 WhatsApp。

We’ve got this endless array of all of these new technologies making it possible to go more portable.

我们拥有无数的新技术，使便携性成为可能。

The cell phone was obviously a huge breakthrough.

手机显然是一个巨大的突破。

This was actually an incredible cause agent for the cell phone, which is just crazy.

这实际上是手机的一个令人难以置信的事业代理，这太疯狂了。

The desk phone — why are you at your desk?

桌面电话 — 你为什么在办公桌前？

Big part is because that’s where your phone is, and that doesn’t make any sense.

很大一部分原因是因为那是你的手机所在的位置，而这没有任何意义。

Your phone should be in your pocket.

您的手机应该放在口袋里。

So we’ve been on these technological trends to liberate ourselves from this artificial construct.

因此，我们一直顺应这些技术趋势，将自己从这种人为构造中解放出来。

But again, human nature being what it is, the artificial construct makes sense at a moment in time.

但话又说回来，人性就是如此，人工构造在某个时刻是有意义的。

A hundred years later, it doesn’t, but somebody actually has to step up and reinvent it.

一百年后，情况并非如此，但实际上必须有人站出来重新发明它。

I suspect the best-run companies over the next 10 years are not going to be the companies that are the best at hybrid.

我怀疑未来 10 年运营最好的公司不会是最擅长混合业务的公司。

I suspect they’re going to be the best companies that are great at remote, or they’re going to be companies that take the choice of having people have actually a much deeper level of human interaction much more frequently.

我怀疑他们将成为最擅长远程办公的公司，或者他们将成为选择让人们更频繁地进行更深层次的人际互动的公司。

They’re going to push it on those extremes as compared to half-hour, hour-long meetings in the office.

与在办公室举行半小时、一小时的会议相比，他们将把会议推向极端。

It’s potentially a civilization-level change.

这可能是文明级别的变化。

I’m getting quite excited about this.

我对此感到非常兴奋。

You go through the history on this.

你回顾一下这方面的历史。

For thousands of years, if you were a sharp, ambitious young person — and this is true of the Medici, and it’s true with the Greeks — you had to go to the city to basically get opportunity.

几千年来，如果你是一个敏锐、雄心勃勃的年轻人 ——对于美第奇家族来说是这样，对于希腊人来说也是如此—— 你基本上必须去城市才能获得机会。

If you don’t have to do that, and in particular, if you don’t have to all go to the same city, and if you don’t have to all go to the same city that hates you, and if, all of a sudden, economic opportunity is decoupled from that, then people are going to be able to choose how to live at different stages of their life in a fundamentally different way, much less dependent on the physical requirement of co-location with economic opportunity than they have in the past.

如果你不必这样做，特别是，如果你不必都去同一个城市，如果你不必都去同一个讨厌你的城市，如果经济机会突然与之脱钩，那么人们将能够选择如何以一种根本不同的方式在人生的不同阶段生活，更不像过去那样依赖于与经济机会同处一地的物理要求。

It’s potentially an earthquake.

这可能是一场地震。

It’s potentially one of those things that in a hundred years, people could look back and say, “That was a real turning point for how society developed.” In that case, the definition of home changes.

这可能是一百年后人们回顾过去并说“那是社会发展的真正转折点”的事情之一。在这种情况下，家的定义就改变了。

The first thing is, number one, you’re working at your home.

第一件事是，第一，你在家里工作。

A lot of people did not plan their home or did not plan apartment buildings or whatever — it never got built with the assumption that you’re working out of them.

很多人没有规划他们的家或没有规划公寓楼或其他什么——它从来都不是在假设你在其中工作的情况下建造的。

And so one is just, all of a sudden, it’s this live-work thing, which again, is back to the future because that’s how the Roman aristocrats lived, and they ran the world, so apparently you can do that.

所以，突然之间，这就是生活与工作的结合，这又回到了未来，因为这就是罗马贵族的生活方式，他们统治着世界，所以显然你可以做到这一点。

The Romans actually had a whole system on this that we could talk about.

罗马人实际上在这方面有一整套我们可以讨论的体系。

They thought this through quite carefully, what it meant to work out of their houses.

他们非常仔细地思考了在家里工作意味着什么。

It’s a place that you work.

这是你工作的地方。

Second is this whole idea of the nuclear family being detached from the extended family, again, because of the need for young people to move for economic opportunity.

其次，核心家庭与大家庭分离的整个想法也是因为年轻人需要搬家以获得经济机会。

Should the home really be two parents and a couple of kids?

家真的应该是两个父母和几个孩子吗？

Or should the home really be, again, a back to the future thing?

或者家真的应该再次回到未来吗？

Should it be three or four generations of people and a lot of cousins and aunts and uncles, and then a lot of kids running around?

应该是三四代人，还有很多表兄弟姐妹、阿姨叔叔，然后还有很多孩子到处乱跑吗？

If everybody could still have access to great knowledge-work jobs online, maybe that’s a fundamentally better way to live.

如果每个人仍然可以在网上找到很棒的知识工作，也许这从根本上来说是一种更好的生活方式。

I talked to a founder today — he’s got eight young people in his company, and they literally go city to city every six months, and they get a group house together, and they’re exploring the world while they’re building their start-up.

我今天和一位创始人交谈过——他的公司里有八名年轻人，他们每六个月就会去一个城市到另一个城市，他们在一起建立一个集体住宅，他们在建立自己的初创公司的同时探索世界。

It may be that we’re in this time of being able to recreate a lot of the assumptions around how we can live, and a lot of that will show up right back in the house.

也许我们正处在一个能够重新创造很多关于我们如何生活的假设的时代，其中很多都会立即出现在房子里。

I don’t know, for me — and this is probably I’m too much of an engineer — it’s like, what is AI?

我不知道，对我来说 —— 这可能是我太过于工程师了 —— 就像，什么是人工智能？

It’s math.

这是数学。

It’s basically elaborations on linear algebra.

它基本上是对线性代数的阐述。

I have a hard time getting worked up about linear algebra.

我很难对线性代数感到兴奋。

It’s math.

这是数学。

We’ll be able to keep the math under control.

我们将能够控制数学。

I’m not as worried about that.

我对此并不担心。

I wouldn’t say it’s a specific worry, but more what you just alluded to — and we see this today — a world of ubiquitous information, communications, computation.

我不会说这是一个具体的担忧，但更多的是你刚才提到的 ——我们今天看到了这一点—— 一个信息、通信、计算无处不在的世界。

A world of everybody being connected.

每个人都相互联系的世界。

There’s whatever hive mind, global brain kind of concept, where everybody’s plugged in all the time, a world in which people have the ability to marshal enormous economic resources, potentially very quickly in a collaborative way.

存在蜂巢思维、全球大脑之类的概念，每个人都时刻保持连接状态，在这个世界中，人们有能力以协作方式快速整合巨大的经济资源。

These dystopian views I think you’re alluding to, the whole idea of — I think the essay was called “Assassination Politics” — just crowdfunding assassinations.

我认为你提到的这些反乌托邦观点，整个想法——我认为这篇文章被称为“暗杀政治”——只是众筹暗杀。

The concern with — what is it — the concern with futures markets?

对 ——“这是什么”—— 对期货市场的担忧？

The concern with Robin Hanson’s idea that always gets put at him — if you can bet on a public figure getting assassinated, you’re creating an incentive for a public figure to get assassinated.

对罗宾·汉森（Robin Hanson）想法的担忧总是引起他的注意——如果你可以打赌某个公众人物会被暗杀，那么你就为公众人物被暗杀创造了动力。

Yes, all of those things are real.

是的，所有这些都是真实的。

There are going to be all kinds of issues.

将会出现各种各样的问题。

They emerge from basically connecting the world and wiring everybody up with computers and information systems, but it’s like, “Okay, we’ve been doing that for a long time now.”

它们基本上是通过计算机和信息系统连接世界并连接每个人，但它就像是，“好吧，我们已经这样做很长时间了。”

We gave everybody spoken language.

我们给每个人提供了口语。

That maybe was a mistake.

那也许是一个错误。

We gave everybody written language.

我们给每个人书面语言。

They did a lot of bad things with that.

他们以此做了很多坏事。

We gave everybody machines.

我们给了每个人机器。

They did a lot of horrible things with machines.

他们用机器做了很多可怕的事情。

We figured it out, we gave people cars.

我们想通了，我们给人们提供了汽车。

In history, we gave people automobiles, and what’s one of the first things that happened was there was a nationwide rash of bank robberies.

在历史上，我们为人们提供了汽车，首先发生的事情之一就是全国范围内发生了一系列银行抢劫案。

The Dillinger Gang went out, and they took the automatic weapons from World War I, and they took the car from the 1920s and they started knocking over the banks, and it was a huge crisis that led to the creation of the FBI.

迪林格帮出去了，他们拿走了第一次世界大战的自动武器，他们拿走了 20 年代的汽车，他们开始破坏银行，这是一场巨大的危机，导致了联邦调查局的成立。

It’s like, “Okay, these are the new tools.

就像，“好吧，这些是新工具。

These are the new systems.” For me, it goes back to the human dimension, which is, people are going to use these things for all kinds of good purposes, all kinds of bad purposes.

这些是新系统。”对我来说，这可以追溯到人类的维度，也就是说，人们会将这些东西用于各种好的目的，各种坏的目的。

We’re going to figure this out as we go.

我们将边走边解决这个问题。

We’re going to figure out how to deal with it.

我们将弄清楚如何处理它。

What I just don’t see — again, maybe I lack vision — I don’t see the discontinuous jump, where all of a sudden, we’re in some world in which this stuff is just out of control, and there’s just no way to cope with it.

我只是没有看到什么 — 再说一次，也许我缺乏远见 — 我没有看到不连续的跳跃，突然之间，我们就处于一个完全失控的世界，而且没有办法应对它。

The thing about his method — there’s a talent-picking aspect to it, but I would actually put in front of that — and maybe even more importantly — there’s a talent attraction aspect to it.

关于他的方法的问题是 — 它有一个挑选人才的方面，但我实际上会把它放在前面 — 也许更重要的是 — 它有一个人才吸引的方面。

My mental model of what Peter does is, I use the metaphor, the Bat-Signal.

我对彼得所做的事情的心理模型是，我使用蝙蝠信号这个比喻。

Peter puts out the Bat-Signal, and then he basically sees who shows up.

彼得发出蝙蝠信号，然后他基本上就能看到谁出现了。

He’s basically been doing this since college.

他基本上从大学起就一直这样做。

That’s very interesting.

这很有趣。

This is what he did at Stanford with the Stanford Review.

这就是他在斯坦福大学通过《斯坦福评论》所做的事情。

He’s at the Stanford Review, he’s like, “Okay, we’re going to have a new newspaper.

他在《斯坦福评论》上说，“好吧，我们将会有一份新报纸。

Let’s see who shows up and wants to work on it.” In that case, a right-wing newspaper on a very left-wing campus, it turned out it was a lot of very smart, very idiosyncratic, and very contrarian people, many of whom he continues to work with today.

让我们看看谁出现并愿意参与其中。”在这种情况下，一份在非常左翼校园里的右翼报纸，结果证明它有很多非常聪明、非常独特、非常逆向的人，其中许多人至今仍在与他共事。

Let’s put out this clarion call with the Founders Fund with the famous tagline, basically, see who shows up with flying car start-ups.

让我们用创始人基金的著名口号来吹响号角，基本上，看看谁会出现在飞行汽车初创企业中。

And Founders Fund has been a very successful firm, based on attracting some very unusual and very compelling founders.

Founders Fund 是一家非常成功的公司，其基础是吸引了一些非常不寻常且非常引人注目的创始人。

It’s interesting, Peter doesn’t really use social media, but he gives talks, and he writes.

有趣的是，彼得并没有真正使用社交媒体，但他会发表演讲，还会写作。

Again, I think that’s part of it, which is, he’s looking for who reads his stuff or who shows up at his talks.

再说一次，我认为这是其中的一部分，也就是说，他正在寻找谁读他的东西或者谁出现在他的演讲中。

Then he basically .

然后他基本上。

.

。

.

。

I don’t know what you’re like as a public speaker.

我不知道你作为一名公众演讲者是什么样的。

When I give public talks, I get to talk, and then I’m out the back door.

当我进行公开演讲时，我开始讲话，然后我就走后门。

Then I’ll go online and see what people think, but I’m not going to stay for three hours.

然后我会上网看看人们的想法，但我不会呆三个小时。

I’d start by saying, my presumption is, there are not enough great founders in the world.

我首先要说的是，我的假设是，世界上伟大的创始人还不够多。

I think that’s obvious.

我认为这是显而易见的。

We could have a big discussion as to whether that’s the case or not.

我们可以就是否是这样进行一场大讨论。

I think there aren’t.

我认为没有。

I think it’s pretty clear there aren’t.

我认为很明显没有。

If there aren’t, how do we get more of them?

如果没有，我们如何获得更多？

Where do they come from?

他们从哪里来？

Should you be starting with a hundred million people and try to train as many as you can?

你是否应该从一亿人开始，并尝试培训尽可能多的人？

Or 10 million or a million, or a hundred thousand or 10,000 or a thousand?

还是一千万、一百万、十万、一万、一千？

What’s the up-front criteria?

前期标准是什么？

What do they have to show up with by the time they become engaged in the activity and open to the training?

当他们参与活动并接受培训时，他们必须展示什么？

Then how much can we train?

那么我们可以训练多少呢？

How many people?

有多少人？

Maybe it’s much more nurture than we think.

也许这比我们想象的要多得多。

Maybe it’s actually not nature.

也许这实际上不是自然。

Maybe it’s much more nurture.

也许这更有教养。

Maybe we just need much more comprehensive and rigorous training, much more freely available to a lot more people.

也许我们只是需要更全面、更严格的培训，让更多的人能够更自由地接受培训。

That’s one of the interesting things you see with the really best founders.

这是你在真正最好的创始人身上看到的有趣的事情之一。

You’ll find this often — people who they have worked for will come to work for them.

你会经常发现这样的情况 —— 他们曾经工作过的人会来为他们工作。

It’s like, “Okay, yes, this person is so good that I should actually be working for them.” That’s an extraordinarily powerful statement.

就像，“好吧，是的，这个人太优秀了，我实际上应该为他们工作。”这是一个非常有力的声明。

You do see that occasionally.

你偶尔会看到这一点。

I would like to see that more often.

我希望更频繁地看到这一点。

We learn these things.

我们学习这些东西。

Once they’re up and running, we learn all these things.

一旦它们启动并运行，我们就会学到所有这些东西。

It would be great to have the scrying device that lets us see all that stuff up front.

如果有一个占卜装置可以让我们预先看到所有这些东西，那就太好了。

With some exceptions, as you said, the history basically is that computer science–based venture capital has done very well.

正如你所说，除了一些例外，历史基本上是基于计算机科学的风险投资做得非常好。

Biomedical, biotechnology–based venture capital has done about, you might say, half as well or a quarter as well.

你可能会说，生物医学、生物技术为基础的风险投资的表现只有一半或四分之一。

Then everything else is a rounding error.

那么其他一切都是舍入误差。

It hasn’t really worked.

它并没有真正发挥作用。

Now, having said that, we’ll come back to this.

现在，话虽如此，我们还是回到这个话题上来。

It’s like Tesla — there were a few VCs, but most people in venture capital land didn’t think there was a ripe opportunity to build a new car company.

就像特斯拉 ——有一些风险投资公司，但风险投资领域的大多数人并不认为现在有建立一家新汽车公司的成熟机会。

I can tell you that.

我可以告诉你。

Nor did most VCs think there was an opportunity to build a new rocket company.

大多数风险投资家也不认为有机会建立一家新的火箭公司。

I can also tell you that.

我也可以告诉你。

You do have these very striking counter examples, which let’s come back to, but the pattern has been, as you said — it’s computer tech or it’s biotech.

你确实有这些非常引人注目的反例，让我们回过头来看看，但正如你所说，模式一直是——计算机技术或生物技术。

I think it’s Bill Janeway’s thesis that he wrote about in his book.

我认为这是比尔·珍妮威（Bill Janeway）在他的书中写的论文。

I think the book’s called Doing Capitalism, and it’s his history.

我认为这本书的名字叫《Doing Capitalism》，这是他的历史。

He is a legendary VC in his own right and a trained economist.

他本身就是一位传奇的风险投资家，也是一位训练有素的经济学家。

He basically says it was the foundational science and advanced technology basically developed in the computer world for 50 years by DARPA and its succeeding technological agencies, and then by big industrial research labs like IBM Research and others, that created the preconditions for computer-based start-ups.

他基本上说，正是 DARPA 及其后续技术机构，以及 IBM Research 等大型工业研究实验室 50 年来在计算机世界中开发的基础科学和先进技术，为基于计算机的初创企业创造了先决条件。

There was a 50-year backstory to that by the time Silicon Valley really got going.

当硅谷真正开始发展时，已经有 50 年的背景故事了。

He said, also, the reason biotech’s half successful is because there was 25 years of biotech — NIH and all these very aggressive biotech biological science–investing programs.

他还说，生物技术成功一半的原因是因为生物技术——NIH 已有 25 年的历史，以及所有这些非常积极的生物技术生物科学投资项目。

His claim — and this is why I think he’s always been leery, for example, of clean tech, environmental tech, for example — is he’s like, “Maybe there should have been a DARPA of clean tech that started in 1950 and ran for 50 years that we were all drawing new technologies off of, but it didn’t exist.

他的主张————这就是为什么我认为他一直对清洁技术、环境技术等持怀疑态度——他就像是，“也许应该有一个清洁技术的 DARPA，它于 1950 年启动，运行了 50 年，我们都在从中汲取新技术，但它并不存在。

Therefore, it’s just going to be much harder in all these other fields.”

因此，在所有其他领域，事情只会变得更加困难。”

I think that’s probably right.

我想这可能是对的。

The reason I think that that’s probably right is because at least the history in the Valley is, if we have a sharp entrepreneur with the ability to attract a team, the ability to tell a story and have a vision, and then they’ve got insight into a technological dislocation — an actual change to the technology foundation of the field that they’re working in — then you have a shot for a successful start-up.

我认为这可能是正确的，因为至少硅谷的历史是，如果我们有一位敏锐的企业家，有能力吸引团队，有能力讲故事并有愿景，然后他们能够洞察技术错位 —— 对他们所从事领域的技术基础的实际改变 ——那么你就有机会成功创业。

If you don’t have a technological dislocation, it’s really hard to just do a cold start.

如果没有技术错位，单纯冷启动确实很难。

Now, again, having said that, Elon did this in both cars and rockets and actually developed many technical breakthroughs, subsequently, in both of those companies, but at least I didn’t see that going in.

现在，话又说回来，埃隆在汽车和火箭上都做到了这一点，并且随后在这两家公司中实际上实现了许多技术突破，但至少我没有看到这一点。

I would say the case studies of Tesla and SpaceX — and this is something we’re spending a lot of time on in our firm — really leads me to wonder if the Janeway thesis is actually wrong, and if, actually, we should be much more open-minded about this.

我想说的是，特斯拉和 SpaceX 的案例研究——这是我们公司花费大量时间进行的事情——确实让我想知道 Janeway 的论文是否真的是错误的，以及我们是否应该对此更加开放。

I have a set of ideas as to why that might be the case, but that’s one of the things that we’re going to try to explore.

对于为什么会出现这种情况，我有一套想法，但这是我们要尝试探索的事情之一。

Necessary disclaimer on that: in my line of work, a false negative — saying something is not going to work and then it works — is a much bigger mistake than the false positive of saying something’s going to work and then it doesn’t work.

对此有必要的免责声明：在我的工作中，假阴性——“说某件事不会起作用，然后它起作用”——比说某件事会起作用然后它不起作用的误报更大的错误。

It goes to the asymmetry of returns.

这涉及到回报的不对称性。

The big mistakes are always missing the big winners, almost 100 percent of the time.

几乎100%的情况下，大错误总是会错过大赢家。

Anyway, I’ve cured myself of that.

无论如何，我已经治愈了自己。

The last 10 years, my biggest mistakes have all been in the dimension of, “Okay, this might work, but if it does, it just won’t get that big.” This goes to the conversation we had earlier, which is, here’s something where things have changed — five billion people connected being able to click and do something new.

在过去的十年里，我犯的最大的错误都在于“好吧，这可能会奏效，但如果奏效了，它也不会变得那么大。”这又回到了我们之前的对话，那就是，事情发生了一些变化 ——50 亿人能够通过点击并做一些新的事情。

For the things that work, they’re getting to be much, much larger than I would’ve ever thought possible, just much bigger, by orders and orders of magnitude.

对于那些有效的东西，它们变得比我想象的要大得多，大得多，一个个数量级。

Again, this goes back in the day job.

再说一次，这又回到了日常工作中。

It’s like, okay, is it responsible to do what’s called market sizing?

就像，好吧，它有责任进行所谓的市场规模调整吗？

Are we supposed to estimate market size, which is what all the textbooks tell you to do?

我们是否应该像所有教科书都告诉你的那样估计市场规模？

Or should we just say, “Maybe it’s not actually so easy to forecast market size anymore.” Maybe we should just basically say, “Look, if something’s going to work at all in this new world of five billion connected people, maybe just everything gets really big, or all the important things get really big.” That’s the one we’re trying to work out right now.

或者我们应该说，“也许预测市场规模实际上不再那么容易了。”也许我们基本上应该说，“看，如果有什么东西能在这个拥有 50 亿互联人口的新世界中发挥作用，也许一切都会变得非常大，或者所有重要的事情都会变得非常大。”这就是我们现在正在努力解决的问题。

That’s just never going to change.

这永远不会改变。

If anything, that’s going backwards.

如果有的话，那就是倒退。

This might be an area where social media has caused conformity to rise, or at least among a lot of the population caused conformity to rise, you could argue.

你可能会说，这可能是社交媒体导致从众性上升的领域，或者至少在很多人群中导致从众性上升的领域。

It’s probably also leading to more contrarianism as well, but certainly, there’s a lot of conformity effects that you can see in plain sight.

这也可能导致更多的逆向主义，但当然，你可以在众目睽睽之下看到很多从众效应。

It’s like the old Apple Think Different thing.

这就像苹果公司的“Think Different”理念一样。

Everybody wants to be Gandhi or Martin Luther King or Bob Dylan or Miles Davis.

每个人都想成为甘地、马丁·路德·金、鲍勃·迪伦或迈尔斯·戴维斯。

It’s great to be those guys once their thing worked and everybody thought they were geniuses and heroes.

一旦他们的事情成功了，每个人都认为他们是天才和英雄，成为这些人真是太好了。

It’s a lot harder up front when everybody thinks you’re an idiot and everybody’s laughing at you.

当每个人都认为你是个白痴并且每个人都在嘲笑你时，事情会变得更加困难。

And so, it’s the people willing to withstand the scorn.

所以，是人们愿意承受蔑视。

That’s on the one hand.

这是一方面。

Then, the more practical answer — maybe it’s an artifact of getting older, but the more practical answer is, there’s another big dimension to what we do and what I do, which is working with these very special people and the people around them and their families.

然后，更实际的答案——也许这是变老的产物，但更实际的答案是，我们所做的和我所做的还有另一个重要的维度，那就是与这些非常特殊的人以及他们周围的人和他们的家人一起工作。

The other side is people who take care of other people — and people who really take care of other people.

另一面是那些关心别人的人——以及那些真正关心别人的人。

People who really care about other people and really try to help them succeed and try to support them in these crazy efforts, or sign up to be part of these crazy efforts.

那些真正关心他人、真正努力帮助他们成功、努力支持他们进行这些疯狂努力的人，或者报名成为这些疯狂努力的一部分的人。

I’m enjoying, more and more, spending time with people who care deeply about other people, which was not how I started.

我越来越享受与那些深切关心他人的人共度时光，但这并不是我开始的方式。

Then it should be extremely comprehensive.

那么它应该是非常全面的。

I would want it to be very focused on history, politics, philosophy, economics.

我希望它非常关注历史、政治、哲学、经济。

The evolution of human society, how we got here, why we’re not all still living in mud huts.

人类社会的演变，我们是如何走到这一步的，为什么我们不再生活在泥屋里。

The really big questions — a lot of it probably organized by era.

真正的大问题 ——其中很多可能是按时代组织的。

Then of course, in this case, I would want to ruthlessly censor.

那么当然，在这种情况下，我会想进行无情的审查。

It would be an arduous gantlet to actually get a book into the bookstore.

真正把一本书送进书店是一项艰巨的挑战。

It’s a very funny movie but also very sweet.

这是一部非常有趣但也非常甜蜜的电影。

It’s about kids actually discovering their full potential.

这是关于孩子们真正发现自己的全部潜力。

It takes place at a recreation of MIT at that time, with that kind of level of experimentation, and then the pranks and the humor and the uncontrolled and anarchic aspect of it, which I think does not really exist anymore but was very special while it lasted.

它发生在当时麻省理工学院的一个娱乐场所，具有那种程度的实验，然后是恶作剧、幽默以及其中不受控制和无政府主义的方面，我认为它不再真正存在，但在它持续的时候非常特别。

That’s a great movie.

那是一部很棒的电影。

As far as I’m concerned, it is the actual telling of the creation of America through the development of the frontier.

就我而言，这是通过边疆的发展来实际讲述美国的创建。

For good, bad, and ugly, it’s all in there.

好的、坏的、丑的，都在那里。

It’s the entire process.

这是整个过程。

It’s the story of carving out, basically, the mining colony of Deadwood and then, ultimately, the creation of the state and, essentially, the creation of modern America that we live in.

基本上，这是一个关于开拓戴德伍德采矿殖民地，然后最终创建国家以及创建我们所生活的现代美国的故事。

I wasn’t there, so I can’t attest to how accurate it is.

我当时不在现场，所以无法证明它的准确性。

Of course, it’s dramatized and so forth, but it’s a very visceral recreation of what it must have been like to be in a place like that at a time like that.

当然，它是戏剧化的等等，但它是对在那样的时间处在那样的地方的感受的一次非常发自内心的再现。

In a lot of ways, it’s the emergence of human civilization, not being able to rely on law enforcement that’s not necessarily there.

从很多方面来说，这是人类文明的出现，不能依赖执法，这并不一定存在。

The military is not necessarily there.

军队不一定在那里。

If you have a contract dispute, it might get solved in a fistfight or a gunfight.

如果你有合同纠纷，可能会通过打架或枪战来解决。

What it takes to basically carve what we would consider civilization out of the wilderness.

基本上需要什么才能从荒野中创造出我们所认为的文明。

By the way, again, the complexity of it, with all the complications and all the controversy and everything else that revolves around the creation of the country and the creation of the frontier.

顺便说一句，它的复杂性，所有的复杂性和所有的争议以及围绕国家的创建和边境的创建的所有其他事情。

I think a lot about the frontier idea.

我对前沿理念思考了很多。

I think I work in the frontier.

我想我在边疆工作。

Basically, the American frontier went west as far as it could.

基本上，美国的边境尽可能地向西延伸。

It reached the Pacific coast; it stopped.

它到达了太平洋海岸；它停了。

People weren’t quite sure what to do next, and then eventually, we figured out that we should just keep going, but in the virtual frontier.

人们不太确定下一步该做什么，最终，我们发现我们应该继续前进，但在虚拟前沿。

I think that’s why California has the tech industry in the north and the media industry in the south.

我认为这就是为什么加州北部有科技产业，南部有媒体产业的原因。

It’s because those are the two parts of the virtual frontier: the networks and then the content in the imaginary world.

这是因为这是虚拟边界的两个部分：网络和想象世界中的内容。

I live kind of post the exploitation of the physical frontier.

我生活在物理边界被开发之后。

That show puts me right in the center of what that must have been like halfway through that.

那个节目让我处于中间的中心。