Luis Garicano on Spain, Europe, and the Future of Work (Ep. 292)
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today I am honored to be speaking with Luis Garicano.
今天我很荣幸能与路易斯·加里卡诺交谈。
He is a Spanish economist, one of the best-known and also best economists in Europe.
他是西班牙经济学家，欧洲最著名、最优秀的经济学家之一。
He was also a member of the European Parliament.
他还是欧洲议会议员。
He taught at the University of Chicago Business School.
他在芝加哥大学商学院任教。
He is now, for the second time, at London School of Economics.
他现在第二次进入伦敦政治经济学院。
He has a new and excellent book out, as far as I know, the best book on AI and the job market.
据我所知，他出版了一本优秀的新书，这是关于人工智能和就业市场的最好的书。
It is called Messy Jobs, and it is co-authored with Jin Li and Yanhui Wu.
这本书的名字叫《Messy Jobs》，是与 Jin Li 和 Yanhui Wu 合着的。
Luis, welcome.
路易斯，欢迎。
Thanks very much for having me.
非常感谢你邀请我。
It’s really a pleasure.
这真是一种享受。
On Spain's housing and political paralysis
论西班牙的住房和政治瘫痪
We will get to Messy Jobs, but first I have so many questions about Spain.
我们将讨论混乱的乔布斯，但首先我有很多关于西班牙的问题。
Why is it that Spain has become so NIMBY?
为什么西班牙变得如此邻避？
Before the Great Financial Crisis, there’s so many homes being built, right?
在金融危机之前，有很多房屋在建，对吗？
There’s overbuilding, everyone goes crazy, and now it seems to be land of NIMBY.
过度建设，每个人都疯狂，现在似乎成了邻避之地。
What’s been the switch in the political equilibrium?
政治平衡发生了什么转变？
There is part of it which is ideas matter.
其中一部分是想法很重要。
Spain was pretty permissive about housing.
西班牙对住房相当宽松。
There was a pretty elastic supply, and people were building all over the place, up to 800,000 houses a year, which is a lot for a country.
供应非常有弹性，人们在各地建造房屋，每年多达 80 万套房屋，这对于一个国家来说已经是很多了。
What happened is that we got a housing bubble.
发生的事情是我们出现了房地产泡沫。
It exploded.
它爆炸了。
There was a lot of overbuilding at the time, for many reasons.
由于多种原因，当时存在很多过度建设的情况。
Basically, there was a triangle between promoters and politicians, local politicians, and the savings banks, a bit like your S&L crisis.
基本上，发起人与政客、当地政客和储蓄银行之间存在着三角关系，有点像储蓄贷款危机。
People identified easy building with corruption, and people identified easy building with high prices, believe it or not.
不管你信不信，人们把简单的建筑等同于腐败，人们把简单的建筑等同于高价。
There really is a serious debate in the Spanish media.
西班牙媒体确实存在一场激烈的争论。
Maybe, I guess, you’re not so surprised with Mamdami in New York.
我想，也许你对纽约的 Mamdami 并不那么惊讶。
There is a very serious debate on whether building more houses would lower prices.
关于建造更多房屋是否会降低价格存在着非常激烈的争论。
There are people saying that, no, it has nothing to do with how many houses you have.
有人说，不，这与你有多少房子无关。
People think that building wouldn’t solve it, and they think that you need to restrict tourist flats and so on.
人们认为建设不能解决这个问题，他们认为需要限制旅游公寓等等。
There has been some of that.
已经有一些这样的情况了。
There has also been, after the bubble, a big restriction on the rights of municipalities to make decisions on land, because it was supposed to lead to corruption.
泡沫之后，市政当局对土地的决策权也受到了很大的限制，因为这被认为会导致腐败。
This is something that has happened in many areas, that you’re trying to make people accountable, and you end up making people scared and unempowering the people who could make the decisions.
这种情况在许多领域都发生过，你试图让人们承担责任，但最终却让人们感到害怕，并剥夺了那些可以做出决定的人的权力。
You end up with a completely rigid supply, which is what we have now, hundreds of thousands of immigrants per year, only less than 100,000 houses built per year, and indeed, as you said, no YIMBY movement at all.
最终你会得到完全刚性的供应，这就是我们现在的情况，每年有数十万移民，每年只建造不到10万栋房屋，而且事实上，正如你所说，根本没有YIMBY运动。
It’s completely NIMBY.
这完全是邻避。
There is nobody in Spain—just a very few people, including me—saying, hey, let’s build more housing.
在西班牙，没有人——只有极少数人，包括我在内——说，嘿，让我们建造更多的住房。
If you drive through Spain, which I’m sure you’ve done more than I have, a lot of it is really quite empty, right?
如果你开车经过西班牙，我相信你比我做得更多，那里很多地方真的很空，对吧？
Completely.
完全地。
You see those big billboards with the black bull and nothing else for miles.
你会看到那些带有黑牛的大广告牌，方圆几英里内什么也没有。
What are you going to do with all that land?
你打算用这些土地做什么？
What does that equilibrium look like?
这种平衡是什么样的？
That simply people crowd into a few cities and the rest just dwindles?
难道只是人们涌入少数几个城市，而其余城市却逐渐减少？
Yes, the current way that housing is built is basically very much by agglomerating in the center.
是的，目前的住房建设方式基本上是集中在中心。
A very large share, I don’t remember the exact number, but a very large share of the densest census tracts in square kilometers in Europe are in Spain, in Madrid, in Barcelona, which is surprising for a country that is completely empty.
很大一部分，我不记得确切的数字，但欧洲最密集的人口普查区（以平方公里计）有很大一部分位于西班牙、马德里、巴塞罗那，这对于一个完全空无一人的国家来说是令人惊讶的。
First, we are putting a lot of solar energy on that empty land.
首先，我们在这片空地上投入了大量的太阳能。
Second, there is a lot of restrictions on what you can do with it because of biodiversity.
其次，由于生物多样性的原因，你可以用它做什么有很多限制。
There’s a ring around Madrid where you cannot build, like around London.
马德里周围有一个无法建造的环，就像伦敦周围一样。
Barcelona, people think you couldn’t build.
巴塞罗那，人们认为你无法建造。
People think Barcelona is full.
人们认为巴塞罗那已经满了。
In fact, all the area around the airport is empty, and it’s green, it’s agricultural land.
事实上，机场周围的所有区域都是空的，而且都是绿色的，都是农田。
People in Barcelona are convinced it’s impossible to grow the city.
巴塞罗那人坚信，这座城市的发展是不可能的。
A lot of it has to do with biodiversity regulations and an effort to keep nature, and so on.
其中很大一部分与生物多样性法规和保护自然的努力有关，等等。
My other country is England, of course, where I’m working and living right now.
当然，我的另一个国家是英国，我现在在那里工作和生活。
In England, the United Kingdom has this view that if you touch any bird, that construction has to be completely stopped.
在英国，英国有这样一种观点：如果你触摸任何鸟类，那么该建筑就必须完全停止。
Spain is not at that extreme, but all of those concerns matter a lot.
西班牙并没有那么极端，但所有这些担忧都很重要。
Why is there a current productivity crisis in Spain?
为什么西班牙目前会出现生产力危机？
Productivity indeed hasn’t grown for three decades, more or less.
生产力确实或多或少已经有三十年没有增长了。
We’re currently having extensive growth.
我们目前正在实现广泛的增长。
We’re having immigration, we’re having tourism, but we don’t really have productivity.
我们有移民，我们有旅游业，但我们并没有真正的生产力。
A lot of it has to do with the political economy.
其中很大一部分与政治经济有关。
I think if you want to explain the West, not just Spain, you have to understand who is voting and who is this being governed for.
我认为，如果你想解释西方，而不仅仅是西班牙，你必须了解谁在投票以及谁在为谁治理。
Spain is a particularly low-fertility, high life-expectancy country.
西班牙是一个生育率特别低、预期寿命特别高的国家。
We have the fifth-lowest fertility and the fifth-highest life expectancy in the world grosso modo, and very high pensions.
我们的生育率在世界上排名第五，预期寿命在世界上排名第五，而且养老金非常高。
Essentially, all the GDP growth we’ve had has gone, 100 percent of the GDP growth we’ve had since 2008 has gone to pensions, to the pensioners.
从本质上讲，我们所有的 GDP 增长都消失了，自 2008 年以来我们的 GDP 增长 100% 都流向了养老金，流向了养老金领取者。
In terms of investment, there is very little in terms of productive investment.
从投资来看，生产性投资很少。
We have this fantastic highway network and this high-speed rail network.
我们拥有出色的高速公路网络和高速铁路网络。
It’s not really getting the maintenance it needs.
它并没有真正得到所需的维护。
Just as one example, the country is basically being governed by and for the older retired people.
举个例子，国家基本上是由老年退休人员统治并为他们服务。
What does the optimistic scenario look like?
乐观的情况是什么样的？
You don’t have to predict it’s going to happen, but lay out for me how it could all go well.
你不必预测它会发生，但要为我列出如何让一切顺利进行。
You would get productivity growth of 1.5 percent a year, and economic growth a bit higher than that.
你的生产率每年将增长 1.5%，而经济增长则略高于此。
Spain has amazing fundamentals for the current situation, meaning we could easily be very electricity-energy rich due to solar, wind, and nuclear.
西班牙目前的情况令人惊叹，这意味着我们可以通过太阳能、风能和核能轻松实现非常丰富的电力能源。
We have all this empty space where you could put nuclear plants without much resistance.
我们拥有这些空旷的空间，可以毫无阻力地放置核电站。
In fact, we are closing them for political reasons.
事实上，我们出于政治原因关闭它们。
The energy could be a big advantage.
能源可能是一个很大的优势。
It’s a really amazing place to live.
这真是一个很棒的居住地。
There is no more diverse geography and climate and nature anywhere in Europe, I think, or close to, and beautiful.
我认为，欧洲没有比这更多样化的地理、气候和自然环境，也没有比这更接近、更美丽的地方了。
You could easily see a situation where Spain becomes Florida, or Austin, Texas.
你可以很容易地看到西班牙变成佛罗里达州或德克萨斯州奥斯汀的情况。
Think of Texas.
想想德克萨斯州。
It attracts technology, attracts talent who wants to live there, attracts energy, builds the data centers, et cetera.
它吸引技术，吸引想要在那里生活的人才，吸引能源，建设数据中心等等。
That scenario is not impossible.
这种情况并非不可能。
The political economy is the tricky part.
政治经济学是棘手的部分。
Doesn’t that mean you actually don’t have good fundamentals?
那是不是说明你根本就没有很好的基础呢？
You said you don’t even have a YIMBY movement.
你说你连 YIMBY 机芯都没有。
Life there really is quite good.
那里的生活确实非常好。
I’ve been many times.
我去过很多次了。
It’s one of my favorite countries to visit.
这是我最喜欢访问的国家之一。
Isn’t that like a resource curse where there’s no sense of crisis?
这不就是没有危机感的资源诅咒吗？
Old people live for a long time.
老人的寿命很长。
It’s very comfortable.
非常舒服。
The weather’s great.
天气真好。
The food is amazing.
食物棒极了。
Aren’t those, in fact, liabilities in a time of very rapid change?
事实上，这些难道不是快速变化时代的负债吗？
I think that’s a great point.
我认为这是一个很好的观点。
The political economy is the constraint.
政治经济是制约因素。
We have had reforms in Spain, including during the dictatorship when the crisis situation was unsustainable.
我们在西班牙进行了改革，包括在危机局势不可持续的独裁统治时期。
Spain opened up under American pressure in ’59 and had the highest growth rate in the ’60s.
西班牙于59年在美国的压力下开放，并在60年代实现了最高的增长率。
It reformed in the mid-’80s and early ’80s with the socialist government that was very actually pro-growth and pro-development, a YIMBY socialist government.
它在 80 年代中期和 80 年代初进行了改革，当时的社会主义政府实际上是支持增长和发展的，即 YIMBY 社会主义政府。
Imagine the socialist government that eliminated housing, rent control, which right now is coming back everywhere.
想象一下，社会主义政府取消了住房和租金管制，而现在这些管制又在各地卷土重来。
It reformed, again, coming up to the euro, although as Tano Santos and Jesús Fernández-Villaverde have shown in the Journal of Economic Perspectives article, that pro-reform movement before the euro was gone in all Southern Europe once the euro made the urgency go away.
在欧元问题上，它再次进行了改革，尽管正如塔诺·桑托斯（Tano Santos）和赫苏斯·费尔南德斯-维拉韦德（Jesús Fernández-Villaverde）在《经济展望杂志》的文章中所指出的那样，一旦欧元消除了紧迫性，欧元之前的支持改革运动就在整个南欧消失了。
It has reformed again in 2012 under the euro crisis and Spanish crisis.
2012年在欧元危机和西班牙危机的影响下再次进行改革。
It could do the reforms it needs.
它可以进行所需的改革。
It’s going to have to be through a crisis, I’m afraid.
恐怕它必须经历一场危机。
Now, you come from Valladolid, which as you know, for a long time has been an automotive center.
现在，您来自巴利亚多利德，正如您所知，长期以来这里一直是汽车中心。
Should the European Union impose strict tariffs and quotas on, say, Chinese electric vehicles, self-driving cars?
欧盟是否应该对中国电动汽车、自动驾驶汽车等产品征收严格的关税和配额？
I don’t have a religious view on this and other industrial policies.
我对这项产业政策和其他产业政策没有宗教观点。
I think that you have to evaluate them.
我认为你必须评估它们。
There is an article by Dani Rodrik and co-authors, recent review, which says industrial policies work under some conditions, not under others.
丹尼·罗德里克（Dani Rodrik）及其合著者在最近的评论中发表了一篇文章，其中指出产业政策在某些条件下有效，而在其他条件下则无效。
We know they have worked in Korea at some point, et cetera.
我们知道他们曾在韩国工作过，等等。
What do they need?
他们需要什么？
They need to be able to have the conditions to let losers fail, and you need to have an objective, a clear-cut objective.
他们需要能够有条件让失败者失败，你需要有一个目标，一个明确的目标。
Now, is Europe in a situation to have an industrial policy where losers are allowed to fail in the car industry, and where Europe has a clear view of where we should go?
现在，欧洲的产业政策是否允许汽车行业的失败者倒闭，并且欧洲对我们应该走向何方有清晰的认识？
I think the answer is no on both.
我认为答案都是否定的。
In terms of what the losers’ power is, basically, any industrial policy would be governed for and by the losers.
从失败者的力量来看，任何产业政策基本上都是为失败者制定的，由失败者制定的。
Basically, as we have seen, the traditional car companies are receiving all the help and all the aid.
基本上，正如我们所看到的，传统车企正在接受所有的帮助和所有的援助。
Whether we know what the objective is, we have a melange of conflicting environmental, labor, industrial security objectives.
无论我们知道目标是什么，我们都面临着一系列相互冲突的环境、劳工和工业安全目标。
I wouldn’t be very optimistic about the chance of success of an industrial policy on large scale, tax these cars, try to make these legacy companies suddenly become cutting edge.
我对大规模产业政策的成功机会不是很乐观，对这些汽车征税，试图让这些传统企业突然变得领先。
I also think that what we are seeing is that European companies are getting destroyed in third-world markets.
我还认为，我们看到的是欧洲公司正在第三世界市场被摧毁。
In Latin America, you only see BYDs now; in Africa, everywhere else.
在拉丁美洲，现在只能看到比亚迪；在非洲，在其他地方。
I don’t think that would solve much.
我认为这解决不了太多问题。
I can see the short-run pressure, and I understand it.
我可以看到短期压力，并且我理解这一点。
I think our problems are different.
我认为我们的问题是不同的。
Our problems are about labor regulations that allow people to adapt fast, are about lack of innovation, and are about lack of incentives for radical as opposed to incremental innovation.
我们的问题在于允许人们快速适应的劳动法规，在于缺乏创新，在于缺乏激进而非渐进式创新的激励。
Europe is very good at incremental, little by little innovation.
欧洲非常擅长渐进式、一点一点的创新。
We’re really not good at making radical changes.
我们真的不擅长做出根本性的改变。
I think that’s where the problem is.
我认为这就是问题所在。
Let’s say the automotive sector leaves Valladolid, which is a city of what, 300,000, 400,000 people?
假设汽车行业离开巴利亚多利德，这座城市有 30 万、40 万人口？
It’s not huge.
它并不大。
It would be a major blow.
这将是一个重大打击。
What would actually replace it?
实际上什么会取代它？
What would the place look like 10 years later?
10年后这个地方会是什么样子？
For Valladolid, it would be devastating.
对于巴利亚多利德来说，这将是毁灭性的。
It would be devastating.
这将是毁灭性的。
Both Valladolid and Palencia are big centers for Renault and Michelin, the car tire company and the car manufacturing brand.
巴利亚多利德和帕伦西亚都是雷诺和米其林、汽车轮胎公司和汽车制造品牌的大中心。
It would be devastating.
这将是毁灭性的。
The other industry that Valladolid has been the capital of Castile-Lyon.
其他工业巴利亚多利德一直是卡斯蒂利亚-里昂的首府。
It’s a very bureaucratic, intensive country.
这是一个官僚主义非常严重、集约化的国家。
You know Spain had a bureaucracy before anybody else had a bureaucracy.
你知道，西班牙先于其他国家出现了官僚机构。
I guess China also had a bureaucracy.
我猜中国也有官僚机构。
That’s the other industry, which is not a very promising industry.
那是另一个行业，不是一个很有前途的行业。
I think that what we need to do is to give a chance to innovation and to change.
我认为我们需要做的是给创新和改变的机会。
The way we’re doing it is just slowing down all change and all adaptation.
我们这样做的方式只是放慢了所有的改变和适应。
On Spanish literature and the Civil War
西班牙文学与内战
There was a media article recently.
近日有媒体报道。
It said something like, well, Americans don’t read anymore, texts aside, but the Spanish, they still read.
它说的是，好吧，美国人不再读书了，除了文字之外，但西班牙人，他们仍然读书。
Do you agree?
你同意？
Books and novels, not on your smartphone.
书籍和小说，而不是智能手机上的。
I guess there’s quite a lot of reading among females, much more than men.
我猜女性的阅读量相当大，比男性多得多。
I think it happens, women more than men.
我认为这种情况经常发生，女性比男性更多。
I think it happens everywhere in the world, meaning that also the publishing world is adapting to that.
我认为这种情况在世界各地都会发生，这意味着出版界也在适应这种情况。
I’m not sure I understand why women are remaining a more loyal constituency of books.
我不确定我是否理解为什么女性仍然是书籍的更忠实支持者。
I don’t know the figures.
我不知道这些数字。
My sense is that Spain is going through the same shorter attention span, TikTok short videos.
我的感觉是，西班牙正在经历同样较短的注意力持续时间，即 TikTok 短视频。
When you’re in the public transport and you see what people are doing, they’re just hitting the videos with the same finger as everywhere else in the world.
当您乘坐公共交通工具时，您会看到人们在做什么，他们只是像世界其他地方一样用同一根手指点击视频。
If I walk into a bookstore in Spain, I’m struck by how much the front tables are mostly fiction, and there’s a relative paucity of nonfiction.
如果我走进西班牙的一家书店，我会惊讶地发现前面的桌子上大部分都是小说，而非小说类书籍相对较少。
That’s correct.
这是正确的。
The US is actually moving in that direction, but we used to be very much the other way around.
美国实际上正在朝这个方向前进，但我们过去却恰恰相反。
Why that difference?
为什么会有这样的差异？
That’s a great question.
这是一个很好的问题。
There is not a long tradition of nonfiction.
非小说类小说的传统并不悠久。
If you think of what are your remarkable 150 or 200 books from Spain, none of them will be nonfiction.
如果你想想你那 150 或 200 本书中哪些是非凡的西班牙书籍，你会发现其中没有一本是非小说类的。
In fact, it is also related to the fact that Spain doesn’t have a big tradition on research and innovation.
事实上，这也与西班牙在研究和创新方面没有很大的传统有关。
Spain has always had a humanistic, artistic—think of our powers in the 16th, 17th , best painters, best writers from Cervantes—I was thinking Velázquez and Goya as painters, Cervantes, Calderón, and all the 20th-century fantastic writers from Lorca, et cetera.
西班牙一直有人文主义、艺术气息——想想我们16、17世纪的力量，塞万提斯最好的画家、最好的作家——我认为委拉斯开兹和戈雅是画家，塞万提斯、卡尔德隆，以及洛尔卡所有20世纪的出色作家，等等。
If you try to think of, just for example, who is the last Nobel Prize winner in science from Spain, you will have to go back to 1905.
举例来说，如果你想想想谁是最后一位来自西班牙的诺贝尔科学奖获得者，你将不得不回到 1905 年。
It’s really a long time in coming.
真的是等了很长时间了。
The culture doesn’t reward a lot nonfiction, science.
这种文化并没有奖励太多的非小说类、科学类作品。
It rewards sports very well, market-driven excellence, big rewards, big concentration at the top, very large labor mobility.
它对体育运动给予了很好的奖励，以市场为导向的卓越表现，丰厚的回报，高层的高度集中，以及巨大的劳动力流动性。
It rewards all these artistic expressions, which, by the way, two things where you won’t see AI encroach, or AI will encroach much more slowly.
它奖励所有这些艺术表现形式，顺便说一句，有两件事你不会看到人工智能的侵犯，或者人工智能的侵犯速度会慢得多。
Maybe that’s protecting Spain.
也许这就是在保护西班牙。
Other than some obvious choices, like say Cervantes, what in Spanish language fiction is especially meaningful to you?
除了一些明显的选择，比如塞万提斯，西班牙语小说中的什么对你来说特别有意义？
There is a lot of writing from the Latin American boom that I have enjoyed enormously.
我非常喜欢很多关于拉丁美洲繁荣时期的文章。
I have enjoyed García Márquez.
我很喜欢加西亚·马尔克斯。
I have enjoyed Rulfo Pedro Páramo.
我很喜欢鲁尔福·佩德罗·帕拉莫。
I have enjoyed Vargas Llosa.
我很喜欢巴尔加斯·略萨。
I have laughed, I have cried with Vargas Llosa, who, by the way, very free market thinker as well, wrote an essay, a nonfiction collection on liberal thinkers.
我和巴尔加斯·略萨一起笑过，也哭过，顺便说一句，他也是一位非常自由的市场思想家，写了一篇文章，一本关于自由派思想家的非小说集。
I have enjoyed a lot of Latin American writing.
我很喜欢拉丁美洲的写作。
In terms of Spanish writing, the poetry from the 1929 generation—García Lorca, Miguel Hernández, those people are amazing as well.
就西班牙语写作而言，1929一代的诗歌——加西亚·洛尔卡、米格尔·埃尔南德斯，这些人也很了不起。
I like Javier Cercas.
我喜欢哈维尔·塞尔卡斯。
Do you like him?
你喜欢他吗？
I love Cercas.
我爱塞卡斯。
He has some really good mystery novels, which are fantastic, but he also has this Anatomía de un Instante, this nonfiction novelized book that I would recommend very strongly to people to read about the Spanish coup d’état in 1981.
他有一些非常好的悬疑小说，非常棒，但他也有这本非小说类小说《Anatomía de un Instante》，我强烈推荐人们阅读这本关于 1981 年西班牙政变的书。
He writes from the perspective of three main characters, who are three people coming from the civil war, who were all three betrayers of their own cause, the communist leader who actually was in favor of the monarchy, the secretary general of the party who was the prime minister, who made the transition, and the general who was on the Franco side who made the military accepted transition.
他从三个主要人物的角度进行写作：三个来自内战的人，三个人都是自己事业的背叛者，实际上支持君主制的共产党领导人，党的秘书长，担任总理，实现了过渡，以及佛朗哥一边的将军，实现了军方接受的过渡。
Those were the only three people, coincidentally, who didn’t go under the desks when the guys, the civil guards with the guns came storming into the house, which was in session to vote the successor of Suárez, the prime minister.
巧合的是，当那些持枪的民卫队冲进众议院投票选举总理苏亚雷斯的继任者时，他们是仅有的三个人没有躲到桌子底下。
He manages to weave those lives and that story beautifully.
他成功地将这些生活和故事编织得非常漂亮。
I really recommend that book.
我真的推荐那本书。
That’s a great book.
那是一本很棒的书。
I also like Soldiers of Salamis and the recent one about the trip with the pope.
我也喜欢《萨拉米斯士兵》和最近一部关于与教皇一起旅行的电影。
Yes, he’s all around really fantastic.
是的，他真的很棒。
Why is the Spanish civil war still so focal?
为什么西班牙内战仍然如此焦点？
I’m thinking of your literature, but also your politics.
我想到了你们的文学，也想到了你们的政治。
Why is that stuck as such a thing in Spain?
为什么西班牙会出现这样的情况？
It’s a long time ago now.
现在已经是很久以前的事了。
It’s true.
这是真的。
It frustrates me very much, and it frustrates many of us.
这让我非常沮丧，也让我们许多人感到沮丧。
It probably is because many people think it wasn’t a really well-closed episode.
这可能是因为很多人认为这不是一个真正封闭的剧集。
It wasn’t an episode where, if you think of maybe the South Africa reconciliation, there was an explicit reconciliation.
如果你想到南非的和解，这并不是一个明确的和解。
If you think of the German dictatorship, there was an actual surrender.
如果你想想德国的独裁统治，那就是真正的投降。
Franco died in bed.
佛朗哥死在床上。
He started the civil war.
他发动了内战。
He won the civil war.
他赢得了内战。
He installed a dictatorship, and he then died in bed.
他建立了独裁政权，然后死在床上。
There was no revolution like in Portugal, that pushed him out.
没有像葡萄牙那样的革命把他赶了出去。
Many people feel that the transition to democracy was not a true people-driven transition, but it was driven by the Franco elites.
许多人认为，向民主的转型并不是真正的人民驱动的转型，而是由佛朗哥精英推动的。
The truth is there were many people in Spain at the time, including the communist leader I mentioned, Carrillo, who thought, never again.
事实上，当时西班牙有很多人，包括我提到的共产党领导人卡里略，他认为再也不会了。
Let’s try to do things now peacefully and well, and they handled the transition admirably.
现在让我们尝试和平、良好地做事，他们出色地处理了过渡。
I think it’s time to put all that behind us.
我认为是时候把这一切抛在脑后了。
On Basque and Catalan public finance
巴斯克和加泰罗尼亚公共财政
Today, how is it that you understand the public choice economics of Catalonia?
今天，您是如何理解加泰罗尼亚的公共选择经济学的？
There is a very clear historical inequality, which is the Basques had a terrorist movement.
历史上有一个非常明显的不平等，那就是巴斯克人曾经有过恐怖运动。
Because they had a terrorist movement, they managed to preserve a confederal system of financing in the constitution.
由于他们有恐怖主义运动，他们设法在宪法中保留了联邦制的融资制度。
They say it's because of historical reasons.
他们说这是因为历史原因。
That's BS.
那是废话。
When you do the constitution, you redo the history.
当你制定宪法时，你就重做了历史。
You start from scratch.
您从头开始。
Because people were scared of this terrorist movement, they were allowed the following bizarre exception.
因为人们害怕这场恐怖运动，所以他们被允许出现以下奇怪的例外情况。
Everybody gets financing through the taxation system, and you get some taxes that go to your region and some taxes that go to the central government, except the Basque Country, which has itself collects all the taxes and negotiates bilaterally.
每个人都通过税收系统获得融资，一些税收归到您所在地区，一些税收归到中央政府，但巴斯克地区除外，巴斯克地区自己征收所有税收并进行双边谈判。
Imagine Texas negotiating bilaterally with the US government, how much Texas is going to contribute to the US budget.
想象一下德克萨斯州与美国政府进行双边谈判时，德克萨斯州将为美国预算贡献多少资金。
Now, here's the smart thing, or the terrible thing.
现在，这是聪明的事情，或者是可怕的事情。
They have enough votes to flip government every few years.
他们有足够的选票每隔几年就可以推翻政府。
They wait for that negotiation till the moment when they actually can decide that this government is going to continue, is going to drop.
他们等待谈判，直到他们真正可以决定这个政府将继续、将放弃的那一刻。
They do always the negotiation in that moment, which means that what is called the cupo, the contribution of the Basque Country to Spain, is basically frozen.
他们总是在那一刻进行谈判，这意味着巴斯克地区对西班牙的贡献基本上被冻结了。
In fact, even when the pensions go up, the rest of the country pays them.
事实上，即使养老金上涨，该国其他地区也会支付。
The Basques don't actually pay more.
巴斯克人实际上并没有支付更多。
They actually are net recipients from Spain, even though they are one of the richest regions.
他们实际上是西班牙的净接收者，尽管他们是最富裕的地区之一。
Catalonia sees this and says, hey, we want the same system.
加泰罗尼亚看到了这一点并说，嘿，我们想要相同的系统。
The problem is, the Basque Country is small.
问题是，巴斯克地区很小。
Catalonia is very large.
加泰罗尼亚很大。
It's not sustainable to do a system like that because it would break the budget if you have two of the biggest regions bargaining bilaterally with the state over how much they're going to contribute every five or 10 years.
建立这样的系统是不可持续的，因为如果两个最大的地区与国家就每五年或十年贡献多少进行双边讨价还价，就会超出预算。
That's going to be unsustainable.
这将是不可持续的。
That's the reason this basic inequality in the constitution has created a system that is unstable, and that doesn't actually have any solution at all.
这就是宪法中的这种基本不平等造成了一个不稳定的体系的原因，而且实际上根本没有任何解决方案。
On party discipline and political selection
论党的纪律和政治选拔
What did the University of Chicago teach you about politics that Spain ended up proving wrong?
芝加哥大学教给你的关于政治的哪些知识最终被西班牙证明是错误的？
I think what I learned at the University of Chicago helps very much with understanding politics.
我认为我在芝加哥大学学到的东西对理解政治非常有帮助。
Politicians are pretty smart maximizers.
政治家都是非常聪明的最大化者。
I guess voters are pretty inattentive.
我猜选民们相当不专心。
I think that your colleague, Bryan Caplan, wrote a beautiful book about it, The Myth of the Rational Voter, which is perfectly rational that they are inattentive.
我认为你的同事布莱恩·卡普兰（Bryan Caplan）就此写了一本精美的书，《理性选民的神话》，这本书是完全合理的，他们的不专心。
If we doubt why do they have the incentive to stand up and vote, why would they have the incentive to figure out what the program of the different parties is?
如果我们怀疑他们为什么有动力站起来投票，为什么他们有动力弄清楚不同政党的纲领是什么？
They’re inattentive.
他们不专心。
I think that that’s not clear enough from the rational models of political economy.
我认为从政治经济学的理性模型来看，这一点还不够清楚。
The thing that I think I understood when I was actually doing politics better than I understood before, and I actually wrote a paper about it, is the importance of the party discipline.
我认为，当我实际上从事政治工作时，我比以前更了解这一点，并且我实际上写了一篇关于它的论文，那就是党纪的重要性。
The mechanism that connects the voters to the politicians is very weak because we have in many countries in Europe, even in other countries, happens through other means like in the UK, but we don’t need to discuss that, but that mechanism that connects the voters and the parties is a mechanism that is mediated.
连接选民和政客的机制非常薄弱，因为我们在欧洲很多国家，甚至在其他国家，都是通过其他方式发生的，比如在英国，但我们不需要讨论这个，但是连接选民和政党的机制是一个调解的机制。
Sorry, the voters and the law is mediated by internal party discipline.
抱歉，选民和法律是通过党内纪律来调解的。
The parties don’t look for the smartest person for the job or the most competent person for the job or the person who can design the right policy.
各方不会寻找最聪明的人来完成这项工作，也不会寻找最有能力的人来完成这项工作，也不会寻找能够设计正确政策的人。
They actually want people who owe their position to the party so they won’t complain.
他们实际上希望人们的地位归功于党，这样他们就不会抱怨。
It’s not the one who in the town hall votes more smartly or proposes the smartest things who gets to the next layer of the proportional representation system.
并不是那些在市政厅投票更聪明或提出最聪明的事情的人才能进入比例代表制的下一层。
It’s the one who’s been most subordinate to the party decisions.
这是最服从党的决定的人。
That’s why the Socialist Party, which is now in enormous corruption scandals, unprecedented in all directions, there is nobody in the party, and definitely nobody in the Congress supportive of Prime Minister Sánchez, who is actually making any noise because their alternative option is zero.
这就是为什么社会党现在陷入了巨大的腐败丑闻，在各个方面都是史无前例的，党内没有人，国会中也肯定没有人支持桑切斯总理，桑切斯实际上在发出任何噪音，因为他们的替代选择为零。
The parties look for people whose outside option is zero in order to make sure that they keep the control.
各方寻找外部选择为零的人，以确保他们保持控制权。
That’s, I think, completely rational, and it would have been predicted by any Chicago economist on the basis of the incentives, but it’s not something that I was as aware of.
我认为，这是完全理性的，任何一位芝加哥经济学家都会根据激励措施来预测这一点，但我并没有意识到这一点。
For example, how do parties in Europe choose the president of the European Commission?
例如，欧洲政党如何选举欧盟委员会主席？
Do they choose the smartest person that is going to make the best calls?
他们会选择最聪明的人来做出最好的决定吗？
No. The leaders of the different countries, they actually want to keep the power.
不，不同国家的领导人，他们实际上是想保住权力。
They don’t want somebody in Brussels who is kind of shallowing them.
他们不希望布鲁塞尔有一个让他们浅薄的人。
They look for somebody who won’t give them any trouble.
他们寻找不会给他们带来任何麻烦的人。
We’ve had two Luxembourg people, one failed defense minister from Germany who is the current president.
我们有两名卢森堡人，一名失败的德国国防部长，现任总统。
We have people who are just not able to lead, and that is by design.
我们有些人就是无法领导，这是故意的。
I think that part of how the party machines and the insight of the way that this promotion, adverse election, you could say, this promotion to higher office gets done, was something that I didn’t understand well before politics, I think, not sufficiently well.
我认为，党的运作方式的一部分，以及对这种晋升、逆向选举，你可以说，这种晋升到更高职位的方式的洞察力，是我在政治之前不太了解的，我认为，还不够了解。
On the EU's unanimity problem
关于欧盟的一致问题
You’ve served in the European Parliament.
您曾在欧洲议会任职。
Should the EU keep its unanimity rule for major decisions?
欧盟是否应该在重大决策上保持一致同意的原则？
The EU has majority rule in single-market decisions and unanimity rules in things that fall out of its core, meaning taxes, defense, foreign policy; in a sense, you could say all the core functions of the state.
欧盟在单一市场决策中拥有多数决定权，在不属于其核心的事务上拥有一致同意规则，这意味着税收、国防、外交政策；从某种意义上说，你可以说是国家的所有核心职能。
The states don’t want to lose decisions here.
各州不想在这里失去决定权。
Let me give you an example.
让我举个例子。
Armament procurement.
军备采购。
You would say, “Hey, guys, you’re making multiple tanks.
你会说，“嘿，伙计们，你们正在制造多个坦克。
You spend many times more in defense than Russia.
你们在国防上的花费比俄罗斯多很多倍。
Just make one tank, make one plane, and one cannon.” What happens?
只要造一辆坦克、一架飞机、一门大炮就可以了。”会发生什么？
Well, let’s say that Germany wants to export to Israel.
好吧，假设德国想向以色列出口。
France doesn’t want that, let’s say, or Spain doesn’t want that.
可以说，法国不希望这样，或者西班牙也不希望这样。
Germany doesn’t want Spain and France to make a coalition and veto it, and vice versa.
德国不希望西班牙和法国结成联盟并否决它，反之亦然。
What happens is the countries want to have the ultimate right to decide on all defense matters.
所发生的情况是，各国希望拥有决定所有国防事务的最终权利。
That means that you get multiple procurement decisions, incompatible shells in the cannons, all of these things.
这意味着你会做出多种采购决策、大炮中不兼容的炮弹等等。
Now, should we have it?
现在，我们应该拥有它吗？
Yes.
是的。
Should we have the majority vote that you proposed?
我们应该获得您提议的多数票吗？
Yes.
是的。
Should we understand the politics that make it very hard?
我们应该了解让事情变得非常困难的政治吗？
Those politics are the core of the state sovereignty, which is taxation, defense, foreign affairs, all this.
这些政治是国家主权的核心，即税收、国防、外交等等。
The functions that the state of 1600 or 1700 had originally are all not in Europe.
1600年或1700年的国家原本所具有的功能，在欧洲都没有。
The politics make it very hard.
政治使它变得非常困难。
I told you defense, but I could go through many other examples and show you why even though you would want to think that the gains from a single market, single procurement, et cetera, would be enormous, the politics make it really hard.
我告诉过你辩护，但我可以通过许多其他例子向你展示为什么即使你想认为单一市场、单一采购等的收益将是巨大的，但政治却使它变得非常困难。
Right now, what we’re doing is harmonizing the shells.
现在，我们正在做的是协调 shell。
You have a big meeting group.
你有一个很大的会议团体。
People, they say, “Oh, I want the 55 millimeters to be like this.” Somebody says, “No, I want it like this, 55 1/2.” They meet for weeks and weeks and weeks and weeks and come up with pages and pages.
人们说，“哦，我希望 55 毫米是这样的。”有人说：“不，我想要这样的，55 1/2。”他们会面数周、数周、数周，并拿出了一页又一页的内容。
People, the citizens are upset.
人民、公民感到不安。
The truth of the matter is there is a political reason for this, and it’s the one I mentioned.
事实上，这是有政治原因的，这就是我提到的。
So fiscal—Ireland wants to do a separate tax in Luxembourg, separate tax policy that basically attracts multinationals and lowers the tax base and all of those things.
因此，在财政方面，爱尔兰希望对卢森堡实行单独的税收，单独的税收政策，基本上可以吸引跨国公司并降低税基等等。
The rest would want no arbitration tax basis.
其余的人则不希望仲裁计税基础。
This is by unanimity.
这是一致同意的。
As long as there’s one loser, no change takes place.
只要有一个失败者，就不会发生任何变化。
In all of these policies, there’s always one loser.
在所有这些政策中，总会有一个失败者。
Pareto improvements are the only ones that can happen.
帕累托改进是唯一可能发生的。
You have your finger on a button, and you can press the button, and the unanimity rule goes away, and it’s replaced by two-thirds majority rule.
你把手指放在按钮上，按下按钮，一致同意规则就会消失，取而代之的是三分之二多数规则。
Do you press the button?
你按下按钮吗？
Everything.
一切。
Not even the US has that, right?
连美国都没有吧？
Correct.
正确的。
Not even the US.
甚至美国也不行。
Let’s say Europe gets the same commerce clause as the US.
假设欧洲拥有与美国相同的商业条款。
Let me put it like this.
让我这样说吧。
On the function that the US government has, Europe loses unanimity, I would say yes.
关于美国政府的职能，欧洲失去了一致意见，我会说是的。
Could a euro bond work at a significant level under current institutions?
在当前制度下，欧元债券能否发挥重要作用？
No. You cannot have the four housemates of the apartment share the credit card bill without sharing anything about how the money is spent and how the money is raised.
不可以。您不能让公寓的四位室友分担信用卡账单，而不透露任何有关钱的用途和筹集方式的信息。
Then the incentives are for all the housemates to go around with the common credit card and spend it.
然后激励所有室友使用通用信用卡到处消费。
I’ve been a very big proponent, and I was a proponent of the recovery and reconstruction fund for Europe.
我一直是欧洲复苏和重建基金的大力支持者。
We proposed it together with some revenue functions for Europe that would allow for the Hamiltonian compromise.
我们将其与欧洲的一些收入函数一起提出，以实现汉密尔顿式妥协。
The money gets centralized for some public goods that are European public goods, and you raise it in some European way.
资金集中用于某些欧洲公共产品，并且您以某种欧洲方式筹集资金。
That has not happened.
但那并没有发生。
We issued those bonds, which we do have, so euro bonds do exist, without really any joint revenue.
我们发行了这些债券，我们确实拥有这些债券，因此欧元债券确实存在，但实际上没有任何联合收入。
Capital markets seem to be a big problem.
资本市场似乎是个大问题。
What could we do to make EU capital markets stronger and better?
我们可以做些什么来让欧盟资本市场变得更强大、更好？
It’s very interesting because I wrote about this in Silicon Continent, in my Substack, a piece with Per Strömberg.
这非常有趣，因为我在《硅大陆》中与 Per Strömberg 合作的 Substack 中写了有关此内容的文章。
Sweden has enough money to fund startups and scale those startups up.
瑞典有足够的资金来资助初创企业并扩大这些初创企业的规模。
Per Strömberg is one of the biggest world experts on private equity, and he happens to be also an expert in Sweden because he’s based in the Stockholm School.
佩尔·斯特伦伯格是世界上最大的私募股权专家之一，他恰好也是瑞典的专家，因为他在斯德哥尔摩学院工作。
The basic story that he tells, and that I wanted to write in a blog for our readers with him, is that it is not really about having the cash.
他讲述的基本故事，以及我想和他一起写在博客中为我们的读者写的基本故事是，这并不是真正的拥有现金。
It’s about the cash and the knowledge together.
这是关于现金和知识的结合。
The money exists.
钱是存在的。
Europe sends the money to the US.
欧洲把钱汇到美国。
We invest in all those startups.
我们投资所有这些初创公司。
The talent exists; all those French and Germans in Anthropic and all these other places.
人才存在；人类和所有其他地方的所有法国人和德国人。
What is missing is the Spotify chief of marketing that actually has seen how companies run, how it’s scaled, et cetera, and now has a lot of money, and starts to fund startups, advise them, and help them.
缺少的是 Spotify 的营销主管，他实际上已经了解了公司如何运营、如何扩大规模等等，并且现在拥有大量资金，并开始为初创公司提供资金，为他们提供建议并帮助他们。
It’s possible that it is true our capital markets are a problem, but it is possible that just fixing the other aspects, which is at the national level allowing for the big change that Sweden did, is that you don’t pay those taxes on the capital gains as long as they are reinvested in the new startups.
我们的资本市场可能确实存在问题，但也有可能只是解决其他方面，即在国家层面考虑到瑞典所做的重大变化，只要资本利得再投资于新的初创企业，你就不必缴纳这些税。
Then you create this ball that starts rolling in which all these startup funders start funding the new startups.
然后你创造了一个开始滚动的球，所有这些初创公司的资助者开始为新的初创公司提供资金。
You can do it in a country that was supposed to be one of the most socialist in Europe.
你可以在一个被认为是欧洲最社会主义的国家之一做到这一点。
In fact, it’s a very free market thanks to internal reform.
事实上，由于内部改革，这是一个非常自由的市场。
It’s true the capital markets are not working.
资本市场确实不起作用。
It’s also true the capital market changes we’re doing are wrong.
我们正在做的资本市场变革也是错误的。
The main thing I learned about Europe in that respect is when we do efforts, instead of we put this new law and eliminate the previous ones, the way it often happens in the European Parliament, European Commission, European Council, the European institutions, is we add this new law which is harmonized, but leave all the lower-layer laws there.
我在这方面对欧洲了解的主要事情是，当我们做出努力时，我们不是制定这项新法律并废除以前的法律，而是在欧洲议会、欧盟委员会、欧洲理事会、欧洲机构中经常发生的方式是我们添加这项协调一致的新法律，但将所有较低层的法律留在那里。
For example, we are giving right now in the new capital markets package more power to the European Securities Markets Authority, the ESMA, the SEC at the European level, without removing any power from the SEC at the national level, which means you’re not harmonizing anything.
例如，我们现在在新的资本市场一揽子计划中给予欧洲证券市场管理局、欧洲证券市场管理局、美国证券交易委员会在欧洲层面的更多权力，而没有取消美国证券交易委员会在国家层面的任何权力，这意味着你没有协调任何事情。
You’re just having more hurdles for people to raise money.
只是人们筹集资金面临更多障碍。
On flexicurity and European labor rigidity
论弹性保障和欧洲劳动力刚性
You mentioned your Substack, Silicon Continent.
你提到了你的子堆栈，硅大陆。
I’m happy to recommend that strongly as well.
我也很高兴强烈推荐这一点。
Now, in labor markets, should severance protection rise with the tenure of the worker, or why not just let the market handle that?
现在，在劳动力市场上，遣散费保护是否应该随着工人的任期而增加，或者为什么不让市场来处理这个问题呢？
I have written and argued in favor of more flexible markets.
我曾撰文并主张建立更灵活的市场。
Denmark has found a solution that I think achieves both ends in protecting workers by having relatively or pretty high unemployment insurance, but in making it flexible and able to hire and fire.
丹麦找到了一个解决方案，我认为该解决方案既通过相对或相当高的失业保险来保护工人，又使其灵活且能够雇用和解雇。
That would be, to me, the best solution to the current rigidity on European labor markets.
对我来说，这将是解决当前欧洲劳动力市场僵化问题的最佳解决方案。
The problem is that it costs quite a bit of money because you have to insure people quite significantly to make them be happy to move around.
问题是它要花费相当多的钱，因为你必须为人们提供相当大的保险才能让他们乐于四处走动。
There are solutions in Northern Europe that allow for this flexicurity, and I would wish that the rest of Europe was adopting them because I do believe that it’s not just that rigid labor markets raise the cost for companies.
北欧有一些解决方案可以实现这种灵活性，我希望欧洲其他国家也能采用这些解决方案，因为我确实相信，不仅仅是僵化的劳动力市场增加了公司的成本。
You can then lower wages and neutralize it.
然后你可以降低工资并抵消它。
The problem is they increase, hugely, the cost of making mistakes.
问题是它们极大地增加了犯错误的成本。
That’s what a new literature is recognizing.
这就是新文学所认识到的。
People weren’t clear about that before.
之前人们对此并不清楚。
If Facebook makes a mistake, thinks the future is the metaverse, and the metaverse is a completely ridiculous idea, and the future is AI, Facebook can turn on a dime, fire all the engineers in metaverse, and hire all the ones in AI in a week.
如果Facebook犯了一个错误，认为未来是元宇宙，而元宇宙是一个完全荒谬的想法，而未来是人工智能，Facebook可以瞬间扭转局面，解雇所有元宇宙工程师，并在一周内雇用所有人工智能工程师。
If Ericsson or Nokia want to do something similar, they’re going to take months and months and months of negotiation with their labor council and so on to the point that they might go under in the meantime.
如果爱立信或诺基亚想做类似的事情，他们将需要与劳工委员会进行数月、数月的谈判，以至他们可能同时破产。
Before we get to your new book, Messy Jobs, are you game for a round of overrated versus underrated?
在我们开始阅读你的新书《凌乱的乔布斯》之前，你是否准备好进行一轮高估与低估的游戏？
Overrated vs. underrated
高估与低估
Sure.
当然。
Go ahead.
前进。
Okay.
好的。
Rosalía—overrated or underrated?
罗莎莉亚——被高估还是被低估？
Rated just fine.
评价刚刚好。
She’s amazing.
她太棒了。
Penelope Cruz.
佩内洛普·克鲁兹。
Also fine.
也还好。
A very fine actress doing very well.
一位非常优秀的女演员，演技非常好。
Javier Marías, the author.
哈维尔·马里亚斯，作家。
I am a big fan.
我是它的忠实粉丝。
I would say he deserves wider recognition, so I would say underrated.
我想说他应该得到更广泛的认可，所以我想说他被低估了。
The Spanish painter Antonio Saura.
西班牙画家安东尼奥·绍拉。
Just fine.
就好了。
Let me just say just fine.
我就说一下就好了。
I think he’s underrated outside of Spain, for instance.
例如，我认为他在西班牙以外的地方被低估了。
Yes, he is big in Spain, but I wouldn’t be able to comment on how internationally he’s recognized.
是的，他在西班牙很受欢迎，但我无法评论他在国际上的认可程度。
The region of Spain, Extremadura, overrated or underrated?
西班牙埃斯特雷马杜拉地区被高估还是低估？
Underrated.
被低估了。
It has some of the best history.
它拥有一些最好的历史。
Many of the conquistadors came from there.
许多征服者来自那里。
So when they went back, they did a lot of work in making the cities beautiful.
所以当他们回去后，他们做了很多工作来让城市变得美丽。
The region stopped growing 400 years ago, so it’s all frozen in time, and you have some of the most stunning experiences of walking into a portal toward the past in places like Cáceres, which, by the way, has one of the best restaurants in Spain as well.
该地区在 400 年前就停止了增长，所以一切都被时间冻结了，在卡塞雷斯这样的地方，走进通往过去的门户，你会获得一些最令人惊叹的体验，顺便说一句，这里也拥有西班牙最好的餐厅之一。
What’s it called?
它叫什么？
The restaurant in Cáceres, I don’t remember.
卡塞雷斯的那家餐馆，我不记得了。
I ate there a few months ago.
几个月前我在那里吃过饭。
It’s a three-star.
这是三星级的。
I don't remember.
我不记得了。
The AI's will know.
AI 会知道的。
Within the world of Beatle fandom, is the album Sergeant Pepper overrated or underrated?
在披头士乐队粉丝的世界里，《Sergeant Pepper》这张专辑是被高估还是被低估了？
I think it’s overrated.
我认为它被高估了。
I’m not as huge a fan of that as of Abbey Road or of Rubber Soul or, for sure, the earlier ones.
我不像《Abbey Road》或《Rubber Soul》或者更早的专辑那样热衷于此。
I don’t think it’s the biggest piece in the canon.
我不认为这是正典中最大的作品。
There are some weak songs on it.
里面有一些弱歌。
I think the George Harrison contribution is not so wonderful.
我认为乔治·哈里森的贡献并不是那么精彩。
“When I’m Sixty-Four” is charming, but it bores me a bit.
《当我六十四岁时》很迷人，但我有点无聊。
Yes, I think there is some weakness.
是的，我认为存在一些弱点。
I would agree with you.
我同意你的看法。
Is there an underrated Beatles album?
甲壳虫乐队有没有被低估的专辑？
Again, this is within the world of Beatle fandom.
再说一遍，这是披头士乐队粉丝的世界。
People somehow don’t like Let It Be, which I think the post not quite last album, but the really last album.
人们不知何故不喜欢《Let It Be》，我认为这张专辑并不是最后一张专辑，而是真正的最后一张专辑。
I don’t know why.
我不知道为什么。
I always adored it.
我一直很喜欢它。
It’s so relative.
这是如此相对。
Their albums are all hugely appreciated.
他们的专辑都受到极大的赞赏。
What is the special food place in Spain that not everyone knows about?
西班牙有哪些不为人知的特色美食？
The place where I’m sitting now, I’m in Asturias, recording this from Asturias.
我现在坐的地方，在阿斯图里亚斯，在阿斯图里亚斯记录这一点。
It’s the region in the north between Galicia and Cantabria in the Basque country.
它位于巴斯克地区加利西亚和坎塔布里亚之间的北部地区。
It’s the oldest bit of Spain in many ways because it was the last place to be conquered by the Islamic invasion in 711.
从很多方面来说，它都是西班牙最古老的地区，因为它是 711 年伊斯兰入侵最后一个被征服的地方。
It’s where the Reconquista started.
这是收复失地运动开始的地方。
Historically, it has a long history of Romanic churches and all that, but it also has outstanding food everywhere, wherever you stop.
从历史上看，它拥有悠久的罗马教堂历史，而且无论您在哪里停留，它也到处都有美味的食物。
It has amazing nature, unspoiled, beautiful beaches, and it’s completely climate change proof.
它拥有令人惊叹的自然风光、未受污染的美丽海滩，而且完全不受气候变化的影响。
It has amazing weather.
这里有令人惊叹的天气。
On the future of Spanish language
关于西班牙语的未来
How will the Spanish language change?
西班牙语将如何变化？
The way it’s changing is it’s incorporating a lot of English language words and expressions.
它的变化方式是它融入了很多英语单词和表达方式。
Probably I am guilty of that as well.
也许我也对此感到内疚。
People who are very exposed to English introduce expressions and false friends.
经常接触英语的人会引入表达方式和虚假朋友。
We are so careful not to introduce false friends from Spanish into English, and then somehow they come back from English into Spanish, and you see words that are used.
我们非常小心，不要将虚假的朋友从西班牙语引入英语，然后他们以某种方式从英语返回西班牙语，你会看到所使用的单词。
If you are English speaker, you realize, “Oh, that’s completely the English usage.” That’s the biggest word.
如果你说英语，你会意识到，“哦，这完全是英语的用法。”这是最大的一句话。
Many words that are ambiguous, instead of shifting toward the Spanish use, they shift toward the English one.
许多模棱两可的单词不是转向西班牙语使用，而是转向英语使用。
If I’m in Latin America, I notice that the conditional and subjunctive are used much less often than in Spain.
如果我在拉丁美洲，我会注意到条件句和虚拟语气的使用频率比在西班牙要少得多。
Given that Madrid now is, what, 20 percent Latin American, is this going to affect Spanish in Spain?
鉴于马德里现在是 20% 的拉丁美洲人，这会影响西班牙的西班牙语吗？
That’s a great point.
这是一个很好的观点。
We are getting a very big Latin American influx.
我们正迎来大量拉丁美洲人的涌入。
I haven’t noticed that.
我还没有注意到这一点。
I haven’t noticed the change in the use of subjunctive.
我没有注意到虚拟语气使用的变化。
We use, unlike the French, not just the subjunctive present.
与法语不同，我们不仅仅使用虚拟现在时。
I don’t want to discourage our listeners from learning, but we use a lot the compound past subjunctive.
我不想阻止我们的听众学习，但我们大量使用复合过去虚拟语气。
If you make a future statement that is hypothetical, the hypothetical future is subjunctive.
如果您做出假设的未来陈述，则假设的未来是虚拟的。
If I were a rich man—past subjunctive.
如果我是一个有钱人——过去的虚拟语气。
I haven’t noticed people using it less, or at least not among people I hear regularly.
我没有注意到人们使用它的次数减少了，或者至少在我经常听到的人中没有。
In Mexico, at least nonlearned people, they don’t use the future tense very much.
在墨西哥，至少没有学识的人，他们不太使用将来时。
They’ll use the present tense and maybe throw in the word mañana, or it’ll depend on context.
他们会使用现在时，也许会加上“mañana”这个词，或者取决于上下文。
Spanish in Spain, is it going to go that way as well?
西班牙的西班牙语，也会这样吗？
I haven’t noticed those changes in Spain.
我没有注意到西班牙的这些变化。
I think that the impact of English language is orders of magnitude higher than Latin America.
我认为英语的影响比拉丁美洲高几个数量级。
That’s my sense, but I would have to consult my favorite LLM before being so sure.
这是我的感觉，但在确定之前我必须咨询我最喜欢的法学硕士。
On why AI won't cause mass unemployment
为什么人工智能不会导致大规模失业
On Messy Jobs, your new and excellent book, you argue very persuasively, “In my view, AI will not lead to anything like mass unemployment, maybe not even to a rise in unemployment, because jobs will become messier and the AIs won’t be able to do them.” Is that a fair description of part of your argument?
在你的优秀新书《混乱的工作》中，你非常有说服力地指出，“在我看来，人工智能不会导致大规模失业，甚至可能不会导致失业率上升，因为工作会变得更加混乱，而人工智能将无法胜任这些工作。”这是对你的部分论点的公平描述吗？
I think that’s completely right.
我认为这是完全正确的。
Yes.
是的。
Now, I agree with you, but I think my worry is the opposite, that I know a lot of people, they want simple jobs, they’re okay with some measure of tedium, and that if most jobs become messy jobs, for them, that’s quite stressful, and they’re upset and disoriented.
现在，我同意你的观点，但我认为我的担忧恰恰相反，我认识很多人，他们想要简单的工作，他们可以接受一定程度的单调乏味，如果大多数工作变成混乱的工作，对他们来说，压力很大，他们会感到沮丧和迷失方向。
Do you worry about that?
你担心这个吗？
I think that we will have to have a tolerance for human relations.
我认为我们必须对人际关系有宽容。
Is that what your friends don’t want?
这是你的朋友不想要的吗？
We have a tolerance for relational work that is complex, that has politics in it, that has a big human component, and that’s the part that is going to stay.
我们对复杂的关系工作有容忍度，其中有政治因素，有很大的人性成分，而这部分将保留下来。
If people just want to be in their desk typing away, I think two good ways to think about it is work from home and outsourcing.
如果人们只是想在办公桌上打字，我认为有两个好方法可以考虑：在家工作和外包。
If you think of which jobs were offshored, let me say offshored, in the big offshoring wave to India, those are jobs that are not messy.
如果你想到哪些工作被外包，让我说，在印度的离岸外包浪潮中，这些工作并不混乱。
They’re clean.
他们很干净。
The company specifies the jobs.
公司指定岗位。
They say, “Okay, we can specify this job perfectly.
他们说：“好吧，我们可以完美地指定这项工作。
Let’s ship you up.”
我们送你上去吧。”
Those jobs are the same exact ones that are under complete threat of disruption.
这些工作与面临完全颠覆威胁的工作完全相同。
A lot of the work from home, when it doesn’t involve a lot of submittings, I guess, has the same feature.
我想，当不涉及大量提交时，很多在家工作都具有相同的功能。
Those jobs are clean, single-task, and very often verifiable.
这些工作是干净的、单一任务的，并且通常是可验证的。
You can just see how the performance is going and have your RL, your reinforcement learning loop work on those.
您可以看到性能的进展情况，并让您的 RL、强化学习循环对其进行处理。
I think those are gone.
我认为那些已经消失了。
The messy component that I want to emphasize, many people will say, “Oh, AI will tend to the messiness as well.” I think that there is some messiness that is contingent and that AI can streamline, but there is a lot of messiness that is both relational and has to do with a deeper aspect of the knowledge problem that doesn’t really go away.
我想强调的混乱部分，很多人会说，“哦，人工智能也会倾向于混乱。”我认为有些混乱是偶然的，人工智能可以简化，但也有很多混乱既是相关的，又与知识问题的更深层次有关，而且这些混乱并没有真正消失。
As AI advances, many aspects of Hayek, Polanyi, and all these knowledge problems are still there.
随着人工智能的进步，哈耶克、波兰尼的很多方面以及所有这些知识问题仍然存在。
How much retraining will be required and how frequent will that retraining have to be?
需要多少次再培训以及再培训的频率是多少？
If I think of me working with agents, I have to retrain myself every month or two.
如果我想到与代理商一起工作，我必须每隔一两个月重新培训自己。
That’s difficult for me.
这对我来说很难。
It’s not stressful given my position, but I can imagine it would be stressful.
考虑到我的职位，压力并不大，但我可以想象压力会很大。
Can we really just put a big chunk of the labor force through that?
我们真的能把大部分劳动力投入其中吗？
Raffaella Sadun and others at HBS have been working on this.
Raffaella Sadun 和哈佛商学院的其他人一直在致力于此。
One of the things that is frustrating about retraining programs, and not just retraining individuals, but retraining programs, is that they generally don’t work.
再培训计划（不仅是对个人的再培训，还有再培训计划）令人沮丧的事情之一是它们通常不起作用。
The favorite middle-of-the-road free market economist prescription for technological change is let’s retrain people.
对于技术变革，自由市场经济学家最喜欢的中间道路处方是让我们对人们进行再培训。
We find that this is really, really hard to do.
我们发现这真的非常非常难做到。
Say you wanted to retrain a clinician, a doctor who’s learned to diagnose illnesses, and that suddenly gets very easy—this is not one of our examples, but just to give an example—to become a plumber.
假设你想重新培训一名临床医生，一名学会诊断疾病的医生，这突然变得非常容易——这不是我们的例子，只是举个例子——成为一名水管工。
It’s not that you couldn’t retrain him because the plumbing skills are so hard, which they probably are, to be honest, but not just that, but because there’s a lot of social identity and other aspects that are tied to the kind of job you do.
这并不是说你不能重新培训他，因为管道技能太难了，说实话，可能确实如此，但不仅如此，还因为有很多社会身份和其他方面与你所做的工作类型相关。
Retraining is a huge barrier.
再培训是一个巨大的障碍。
The way we retrain ourselves, as Kuhn said, talking about scientists, is by dying, and the new generations do new things.
正如库恩在谈论科学家时所说的那样，我们重新训练自己的方式是通过死亡，而新一代则做新的事情。
I share your concern about how easy it will be to get people to learn new tricks.
我和你一样担心让人们学习新技巧有多容易。
On the other hand, my Ma is 84 years old, and she talks to ChatGPT all the time.
另一方面，我妈妈已经84岁了，她一直在用ChatGPT说话。
She has good, long conversations.
她的谈话很好，很长。
I’ve updated it so that she now has the better version that you can talk over it and argue back, the very recent improvements.
我已经更新了它，以便她现在拥有更好的版本，您可以讨论它并反驳，这是最近的改进。
The LLMs are becoming better at eliminating all the prompting skill and all the skill that went into making agents, et cetera.
法学硕士在消除所有提示技能和制作代理人等方面的所有技能方面变得越来越好。
It seems like it’s easier to use.
看起来使用起来更加方便。
I think the hardest thing about LLMs—maybe that’s easier to retrain—the hardest skill about LLMs is knowing what they can do.
我认为法学硕士最难的事情——也许再培训更容易——法学硕士最难的技能是知道他们能做什么。
Most people have no idea what you could do with your AI.
大多数人不知道你可以用人工智能做什么。
That’s the part where a short focus lesson to a relationship manager at a bank, where you tell him, here’s the case, you’re going to visit your client, here are the six questions you should ask—I’m doing some work with a big bank on this exact topic, a big experiment—here are the questions that you could ask before you have the client meeting, maybe that retraining is easier on the use case as opposed to retraining for new jobs, which I think is very hard.
这就是给银行的客户关系经理上一堂简短的焦点课程的部分，你告诉他，情况是这样的，你要拜访你的客户，这是你应该问的六个问题——我正在与一家大银行就这个主题进行一些工作，一个大实验——这是你在与客户会面之前可以问的问题，也许在用例上再培训比为新工作进行再培训更容易，我认为这是非常困难的。
Do you think the natural rate of unemployment will go up?
您认为自然失业率会上升吗？
I don’t mean cyclical, but just due to search, retraining?
我不是说周期性，只是因为搜索、再训练？
My sense is that we have several hundred years of automation, and we do have moments of blips, but I think the natural rate is going up much more due to other things.
我的感觉是，我们已经经历了几百年的自动化，我们确实有过短暂的时刻，但我认为由于其他原因，自然率正在上升更多。
Well, if you allow me to group participationing, which has to do with disability and mental illness and people not feeling well and all that, rather than to a permanent increase in retraining needs.
好吧，如果你允许我参加集体活动，这与残疾、精神疾病和感觉不舒服等等有关，而不是与再培训需求的永久增加有关。
We have some degree of recursive self-improvement right now.
我们现在有一定程度的递归自我改进。
Arguably, there’s more to come.
可以说，还会有更多的事情发生。
There’s a new model out every month or two.
每隔一两个月就会推出一款新型号。
For the most part, they’re much better than the model that existed a month or two earlier.
在大多数情况下，它们比一两个月前存在的模型要好得多。
Just how exactly are people supposed to keep up with that?
人们到底应该如何跟上呢？
Do the jobs get messier at an equivalently rapid pace?
工作是否会以同样快的速度变得更加混乱？
You lose certain bits of the job.
你会失去工作的某些部分。
Certain things get unbundled.
某些东西会被分拆。
Other things don’t get unbundled.
其他东西不会被拆分。
Jin and Yanhui and me talk about strong bundles and weak bundles.
我和金、彦辉谈论强束和弱束。
Weak bundles, the job breaks into pieces, and some parts are done by the AI.
弱捆绑，工作被分解成碎片，有些部分是由人工智能完成的。
When the job is a strong bundle, the AI comes into your bundle and helps you, like in a relationship manager, an account manager for a bank who gets to prepare the meetings better, but still needs to have the cognitive task bundled with seeing the clients.
当工作是一个强大的捆绑时，人工智能就会进入你的捆绑并为你提供帮助，就像关系经理、银行的客户经理一样，他可以更好地准备会议，但仍然需要将认知任务与会见客户捆绑在一起。
I think that part doesn’t quite require staying as close to the frontier as you and me are staying.
我认为这并不需要像你我一样靠近边境。
I think that part requires knowing that the LLM can help you prepare the client meeting.
我认为这部分需要知道法学硕士可以帮助您准备客户会议。
You ask the LLM, “Please help me prepare this client meeting.
你问法学硕士：“请帮我准备这次客户会议。
Here are the budgets and the balance sheet statements of the client.
这是客户的预算和资产负债表。
Help me see which products of the bank I could offer.” I don’t think that needs really to know what the actual frontier model is and how does it differ from the previous ones.
帮我看看我可以提供银行的哪些产品。”我认为不需要真正了解实际的前沿模型是什么以及它与以前的模型有何不同。
Now, as you well know, virtually all new technologies and productivity improvements, they lead to more leisure over time in a good way.
现在，正如您所知，几乎所有新技术和生产力的提高，随着时间的推移，它们都会以一种好的方式带来更多的休闲。
I don’t mean unemployment, but actual enjoyed leisure.
我不是说失业，而是真正享受闲暇。
If I think of the current day, there’s some people, like the two of us, we choose to work more to learn about AI.
如果我想想现在的情况，有些人，比如我们两个，会选择更多地工作来了解人工智能。
Then there’s other people; they feel they have to work more to learn about AI to not lose their jobs.
然后还有其他人；他们觉得自己必须付出更多的努力来了解人工智能，才能不失去工作。
So far, there’s no leisure dividend.
到目前为止，还没有休闲红利。
People basically are working more.
人们基本上工作得更多了。
When is the leisure dividend going to arrive?
休闲红利什么时候到来？
I’m not sure that’s the case.
我不确定情况是否如此。
Let me give you two data points.
让我给你两个数据点。
One is a Chinese CEO I had dinner with.
其中一位是与我共进晚餐的一位中国首席执行官。
My two co-authors from Hong Kong University and I, we had dinner with this CEO who told us she sees every one of her IT people more productive.
我和来自香港大学的两位合著者与这位首席执行官共进晚餐，她告诉我们她认为她的每一位 IT 人员的工作效率都更高。
She looks at the productivity of the overall IT department, nothing happens.
她查看了整个 IT 部门的生产力，没有任何反应。
She said to us, “I think they are smoking the productivity gains in the corridor.”
她对我们说：“我认为他们正在利用走廊里生产力的提高。”
The second is from the recent NBER Summer Institute.
第二个来自最近的 NBER 夏季学院。
There was a paper in health which gave doctors scribes and they all adopted.
有一篇关于健康的论文给了医生抄写员，他们都采纳了。
Adoption is slow.
采用速度很慢。
Well, the automated scribes went up to 100 percent of adoption really very quickly.
嗯，自动化抄写员的采用率确实非常快地达到了 100%。
You see doctors scheduling more meetings and doing more stuff.
你会看到医生安排更多的会议并做更多的事情。
Eventually, and there was a recent New York Times article from a doctor exactly arguing this.
最终，《纽约时报》最近发表了一篇来自一位医生的文章，准确地论证了这一点。
She was saying, “I have more time for my yoga classes.” She was actually using the scribe which transcribes the meetings and which stops a lot of the bureaucratic work that is nasty for a doctor.
她说：“我有更多时间参加瑜伽课。”她实际上使用的是抄写员来记录会议内容，并停止了许多对医生来说令人讨厌的官僚工作。
My wife is one, so I know how much they hate that.
我的妻子就是其中之一，所以我知道他们有多讨厌这一点。
She was actually doing more yoga.
她实际上做了更多的瑜伽。
This actually shows up in this paper to some extent.
这实际上在某种程度上体现在本文中。
I do think that what we see with this usage, this shadow usage of AI in the job, which is people have their own computer, and they actually ask questions that maybe their corporate AI doesn’t allow them to ask, has a lot of welfare gains in the form of leisure and lower work stress in the job because you just ask the LLM, you post it there, and you just spend some time browsing the web.
我确实认为，我们所看到的人工智能在工作中的影子使用，即人们拥有自己的计算机，他们实际上提出了公司人工智能可能不允许他们提出的问题，以休闲和降低工作压力的形式带来了很多福利收益，因为你只需问法学硕士，你将其发布在那里，你只需花一些时间浏览网页。
I am not as sure that the leisure is not expanding, but definitely not mine.
我不确定闲暇时间是否没有扩大，但绝对不是我的。
I’ve never worked as much as grad school.
我从来没有像研究生那样工作过。
Say in the short run when taxes change, almost always the substitution effect overwhelms the income effect.
比如说，在短期内，当税收变化时，替代效应几乎总是压倒收入效应。
Tax cut, people work more.
减税，人们工作更多。
If taxes go up, people work less.
如果税收增加，人们的工作就会减少。
Of course, we see this in Western Europe.
当然，我们在西欧也看到了这一点。
Aren’t these AI productivity improvements a bit like tax changes?
这些人工智能生产力的提高是不是有点像税收变化？
You’re more productive.
你的工作效率更高。
In the aggregate, if doctors are more productive, they can earn more; they’ll work harder.
总的来说，如果医生的工作效率更高，他们的收入就会更高；反之，他们的收入就会更高。他们会更加努力地工作。
I’m not complaining about that fact, but maybe we should expect that instead of a leisure dividend.
我并不是在抱怨这个事实，但也许我们应该期待这一点，而不是休闲红利。
Both things can happen.
这两件事都有可能发生。
We are seeing Jevons effects in many of our own utilities and in many of our own decisions to work.
我们在我们自己的许多公用事业以及我们自己的许多工作决策中看到了杰文斯效应。
It’s definitely the case for you and I, as you said.
正如你所说，这对你和我来说绝对是这样。
Just for the amusement of our readers, I guess, many of you have a WHOOP.
我想，只是为了让我们的读者开心，你们中的许多人都会大吃一惊。
I was really very happy with my WHOOP until January this year.
直到今年一月，我对我的 WHOOP 真的非常满意。
I was 53 years old in physical age.
我当时的生理年龄是53岁。
Since January, it’s been steadily declining.
自一月份以来，它一直在稳步下降。
I’m now 57.
我现在57岁了。
I grew four years in six months.
我在六个月内长大了四年。
That’s because I am not sleeping a lot.
那是因为我睡得不多。
I am running things into the night and going to bed thinking, “Oh, I should have done this old thing.
我把事情处理到深夜，然后上床睡觉，心里想：“哦，我应该做这件老事。
Why didn’t I try this?” Yes, it definitely happens to me, so why wouldn’t it happen to those doctors?
我为什么不尝试这个？”是的，这肯定发生在我身上，那为什么不会发生在那些医生身上呢？
Is there a plausible scenario whereby Spain in particular, and I don’t mean the EU, I mean Spain, achieves AI sovereignty?
是否有一种可能的情况，特别是西班牙，我不是指欧盟，我指的是西班牙，实现了人工智能主权？
You’ve written about this on your Substack, Silicon Continent.
您已经在您的 Substack，Silicon Continent 上写过有关此内容的文章。
What’s your view right now?
您现在有何看法？
Keep in mind, the whole stack in some way has to be under your control, right?
请记住，整个堆栈在某种程度上必须在您的控制之下，对吧？
Yes, I don’t think that’s a substantive objective, neither for Spain, nor for Europe.
是的，我认为这对西班牙和欧洲来说都不是一个实质性目标。
Europe as a whole, and Spain in particular, are nowhere on hardware, except for ASML, which does the capital equipment.
整个欧洲，尤其是西班牙，除了提供资本设备的 ASML 之外，在硬件方面一无是处。
I’ll go back to ASML, the producer of the machines that make the EUV chips.
我将回到 ASML，这是制造 EUV 芯片的机器的生产商。
We are nowhere on the language models, the frontier models, neither in open weights, nor on closed models.
我们在语言模型、前沿模型、开放权重和封闭模型上都一无所知。
We have Mistral, but it’s not really at the level of the Chinese ones.
我们有米斯特拉尔，但它还达不到中国的水平。
We are not really there on the data centers.
我们并不真正在数据中心。
All the elements that are needed are not there, except for ASML, which is a Dutch company and is not under European jurisdiction, Dutch jurisdiction, if you want.
所有需要的元素都不存在，除了 ASML，它是一家荷兰公司，不受欧洲管辖，荷兰管辖，如果你愿意的话。
Much of the supply chain is German.
大部分供应链都是德国的。
What you can aspire to, I’ve been defending the second-mover strategy for Europe with my colleague Jesús Saa-Requejo.
你可以期待的是，我一直在和我的同事 Jesús Saa-Requejo 一起捍卫欧洲的后发战略。
What we are defending is being a fast implementer, profiting from the gigantic investment that the Americans are making in many things that will actually, like the railroads, eventually not lead to significant value capture, but will generate enormous dissipated welfare gains for everybody.
我们所捍卫的是成为一个快速实施者，从美国人在许多事物上进行的巨额投资中获利，这些投资实际上（例如铁路）最终不会带来显着的价值获取，但会为每个人带来巨大的耗散福利收益。
Let’s be the ones who enjoy those welfare gains by adopting AI very aggressively, becoming big clients.
让我们成为那些通过非常积极地采用人工智能而享受这些福利收益的人，成为大客户。
When you’re a big client, like China showed with Nvidia, you have bargaining power because the people who sell to you, your vendors, are going to lobby the government to keep selling to you.
当你是大客户时，就像中国向英伟达展示的那样，你就有议价能力，因为向你销售产品的人，你的供应商，会游说政府继续向你销售产品。
Become a second mover.
成为第二个推动者。
Try to make sure to have options.
尝试确保有选择。
Keep it interoperable.
保持其可互操作性。
Make sure the models can easily be switched, which at the moment is very, very easy.
确保模型可以轻松切换，目前这非常非常容易。
You just need to change the API call, and it becomes seamless.
你只需要改变 API 调用，它就变得无缝了。
That’s the best that we can do.
这是我们能做的最好的事情。
I don’t think sovereignty is an objective at this moment.
我认为主权目前不是一个目标。
How much bargaining power does Spain lose in this new world?
西班牙在这个新世界中失去了多少议价能力？
All countries, except the US and China, will be dependent on AI, which they don’t control.
除美国和中国外，所有国家都将依赖人工智能，而人工智能是他们无法控制的。
My view is that, and I’ve disagreed with my blog co-author and son, Pieter, on this—this is the one point on which we disagree.
我的观点是，在这一点上我不同意我的博客合著者和儿子彼得的观点——这是我们不同意的一点。
He’s very convinced that it’s all about frontier models and he’s written a couple of posts on that.
他非常确信这一切都与前沿模型有关，并且他就此写了几篇文章。
I think that you need frontier models in research and innovation.
我认为你需要研究和创新的前沿模型。
You need frontier models in some adversary applications like war.
在某些敌对应用（例如战争）中，您需要前沿模型。
In order to have good law, good professional services, good medicine, good accounting, good companies doing proprietary research in their own servers, you don’t need a frontier model.
为了拥有良好的法律、良好的专业服务、良好的医学、良好的会计、在自己的服务器上进行专有研究的优秀公司，你不需要前沿模型。
You can be three, four months behind the frontier as long as you have the harness in-house, the data in-house.
只要您拥有内部的工具和内部的数据，您就可以落后前沿三四个月。
You’re better off without and I think that this letter from very recently that Nvidia CEO and Microsoft CEO stimulated and everybody else wrote goes in this direction.
没有的话你会过得更好，我认为最近英伟达首席执行官和微软首席执行官以及其他人写的这封信就是朝着这个方向发展的。
The open weights model allows you to keep proprietary your own data and your own know-how.
开放权重模型允许您保留自己的数据和专有技术。
A country like Spain, or Europe as a whole, could build a strategy on that ability to switch and to keep the market competitive and contestable.
像西班牙这样的国家，或者整个欧洲，可以根据这种能力来制定战略，以保持市场的竞争性和可竞争性。
On what's next
关于下一步
Let’s say you were liberated from your AI learning responsibilities and given two or three free weeks in life, all expenses paid, to explore some corner of the world where you’ve never been.
假设你从人工智能学习的责任中解放出来，并有两到三周的空闲时间（所有费用均已支付），可以探索世界上你从未去过的某个角落。
What’s your choice and why?
你的选择是什么？为什么？
I think I’ll go to Vietnam.
我想我会去越南。
It’s one of the places I’ve been dreaming of going for a long time.
这是我长期以来一直梦想去的地方之一。
I think it has the cuisine, the landscapes, the people, the economic side, the technology to see how they’re doing all this transition, the nature.
我认为它有美食、风景、人民、经济方面、技术，可以看到他们如何进行所有这些转变，还有自然。
I think it would be Vietnam.
我认为应该是越南。
Final question.
最后一个问题。
What is it you want to learn about next, other than Vietnam?
除了越南之外，您接下来还想了解什么？
I am continuously fascinated by economics.
我一直对经济学着迷。
I learned a lot of price theory in Chicago from Becker and Murphy and Rosen, and those were my advisers and many others.
我在芝加哥从贝克尔、墨菲和罗森那里学到了很多价格理论，他们是我的顾问和许多其他人。
I find that these tools are allowing me to learn much more and to be deeper on many questions and to think harder about what is it that remains messy?
我发现这些工具让我能够学到更多，更深入地解决许多问题，并更深入地思考到底是什么仍然混乱？
What is the knowledge problem once cognition is very cheap, and why is it hard to reproduce with the machine?
一旦认知非常廉价，知识问题是什么，为什么很难用机器再现？
All of those questions are infinitely interesting.
所有这些问题都非常有趣。
I spent quite a few years outside of economics because of the politics detour.
由于政治绕道，我在经济学之外呆了好几年。
Of course, I was in charge of economic dossiers in parliament, but I was not in the frontier of economics.
当然，我在议会负责经济档案，但我并不处于经济学的前沿。
I realized how much I like it.
我意识到我是多么喜欢它。
My desire is to learn more about economics and help the economics discipline and the students make this beautiful transition that we’re going to see that suddenly it’s going to accelerate all sorts of interesting research.
我的愿望是更多地了解经济学，帮助经济学学科和学生实现这一美好的转变，我们将看到它会突然加速各种有趣的研究。
Luis Garicano, thank you very much.
路易斯·加里卡诺，非常感谢你。
All right.
好的。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
It was my pleasure.
这是我的荣幸。