Luigi Zingales on Italy, Google and Conglomeration, and Donald Trump (Ep. 3 - Live at Mason)

A Capitalism for the People, from three years ago is, in my view, perhaps the best book on the current American economy, what’s wrong with it, and what should be done.

在我看来，三年前的《人民的资本主义》也许是关于当前美国经济、问题所在以及应该做什么的最好的书。

With Raghu Rajan, he has an earlier book, Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists.

他与拉古·拉詹 (Raghu Rajan) 合作出版了一本更早的书，《从资本家手中拯救资本主义》(Saving Capitalism from the Capitalists)。

Luigi’s contributions are far-ranging.

路易吉的贡献是广泛的。

He’s been at the Graduate School of Business of University of Chicago for now, I think, 27 years.

我想他已经在芝加哥大学商学院工作了 27 年了。

He is a major contributor to theory of the firm, politics, culture, governance.

他是公司理论、政治、文化、治理理论的主要贡献者。

This is just a small sliver of the papers he has written, in addition to the three books.

除了三本书之外，这只是他所写论文的一小部分。

He is now the director of the Stigler Center at the University of Chicago.

他现在是芝加哥大学斯蒂格勒中心主任。

Most of all, in recent times, Luigi has been known for his biting critique of what we all sometimes call crony capitalism.

最重要的是，近年来，路易吉因其对我们有时所说的裙带资本主义的尖锐批评而闻名。

There’s more I could say, but let’s get to the dialogue.

我还有很多话要说，但让我们开始对话吧。

On Italy and its economy

关于意大利及其经济

If you look at the economic performance of Italy, the country is just coming out of a triple‑dip recession.

如果你看看意大利的经济表现，就会发现该国刚刚走出三重衰退。

Unemployment is about 12 percent.

失业率约为12%。

By some measures I’ve seen, per capita income is not higher than what it was 15 years ago, and they’re over €2 trillion in debt.

根据我所看到的一些衡量标准，人均收入并不比 15 年前高，而且他们的债务超过 2 万亿欧元。

Some serious problems, and a low birth rate.

一些严重的问题，以及低出生率。

How do you see this playing itself out, and what is the endgame?

您如何看待这件事的发展？最终结果是什么？

How pessimistic or optimistic are you?

你有多悲观或多乐观？

In fact, in the period 1945 to 1995, Italy grew at a rate that was at least as good, if not better, than Europe and the United States, especially in terms of productivity.

事实上，在1945年至1995年期间，意大利的增长速度至少与欧洲和美国一样好，甚至更好，特别是在生产率方面。

Since 1995, Italy stopped growing in terms of productivity.

自1995年以来，意大利的生产率停止增长。

Of course, if you don’t grow in terms of productivity, you don’t grow in terms of income per capita, and so on and so forth.

当然，如果生产力不增长，人均收入也不会增长，等等。

The question of why, I think, is one of the most important questions, not just for the future of Italy, but for the future of Europe, in general.

我认为，为什么这个问题是最重要的问题之一，不仅关系到意大利的未来，而且关系到整个欧洲的未来。

With a coauthor, I have tried to analyze the various theories.

我与合著者一起尝试分析各种理论。

One theory, which is very popular, particularly in Italy, is that it’s all the fault of the euro, because it is true that this sudden stop happened roughly at the time Italy joined the euro.

一种非常流行的理论，尤其是在意大利，认为这都是欧元的错，因为这种突然的停滞确实发生在意大利加入欧元的时间。

I don’t think there is any evidence that’s the case, in spite of the fact that it’s a very strong correlation, temporally.

我认为没有任何证据表明情况如此，尽管事实上它在时间上有很强的相关性。

I think that the sad reality is that the institutional deficits present in Italy are particularly severe as you approach the technological frontier.

我认为可悲的现实是，当你接近技术前沿时，意大利存在的制度赤字尤其严重。

If you have institutions that don’t work and are corrupt, et cetera, you can get by if the only thing you have to do is improve agriculture and produce t‑shirts.

如果你的机构不起作用、腐败等等，只要你唯一要做的就是改善农业和生产 T 恤，你就可以过得去。

We’ve seen in Cambodia, not great institutions, but they produce great t‑shirts, and it works.

我们在柬埔寨看到的不是伟大的机构，但他们生产很棒的 T 恤，而且很有效。

Once you try to compete in the first league, when you try to be at the frontier of the technology, you need to have a relatively non‑corrupt government, a system where people pay taxes without too much tax evasion, but not too much taxes, because otherwise they don’t produce.

一旦你试图在第一联盟中竞争，当你试图处于技术前沿时，你需要有一个相对廉洁的政府，一个人们纳税而没有太多逃税的系统，但也不能太多税收，因为否则他们就不会生产。

Italy has failed, in my view, to do that.

在我看来，意大利未能做到这一点。

I think that the government by Renzi is trying to do this.

我认为伦齐政府正在努力做到这一点。

The jury is still out whether it will succeed.

是否会成功尚无定论。

Those are very durable cultural effects.

这些都是非常持久的文化影响。

I think back to being in Italy in the mid‑1980s, when it passed the UK in terms of per capita income, it was, in a sense, then at the European frontier and still growing.

我回想起20世纪80年代中期的意大利，当时意大利的人均收入超过了英国，从某种意义上说，当时的意大利处于欧洲前沿，而且仍在增长。

Now, it’s not so much later, and what feels like the same culture seems to be giving very different results.

现在，时间已经不晚了，感觉相同的文化似乎给出了截然不同的结果。

How’s the way we make sense of that?

我们如何理解这一点？

The Mafia used to be only in Sicily, today, is present in Milan, is present in Venice, is present everywhere.

黑手党过去只存在于西西里岛，现在存在于米兰，存在于威尼斯，存在于任何地方。

When we are questioned, “What has gotten worse?” I think there is this component.

当我们被问到：“什么事情变得更糟了？”我认为有这个组件。

The second is the boom.

第二是繁荣。

What people did not fully realize, but the boom of Italy in the 1980s was a boom of a developing country that had a protected currency area.

人们没有完全意识到，20世纪80年代意大利的繁荣是一个拥有受保护货币区的发展中国家的繁荣。

We were playing the catch‑up nation within Europe.

我们正在欧洲范围内扮演追赶者的角色。

While everybody else in Europe was moving in more advanced production and services, they were leaving behind market space for us to capture the less technological production, and we did it with gusto.

当欧洲其他国家都在转向更先进的生产和服务时，他们为我们留下了市场空间，让我们占领技术含量较低的生产，我们满怀热情地做到了这一点。

It was a boom in the ‘80s, but it was a boom in the wrong direction.

这是八十年代的繁荣，但方向错误。

A number of accidents, including the errors of the only Italian who actually was a military leader, Garibaldi, made unification possible against all odds.

一系列的意外事件，包括意大利唯一一位真正的军事领导人加里波第所犯的错误，使得统一克服重重困难得以实现。

I’m sure that if you ask people in 1858, “What are the chances of within three decades Italy gets unified?” they will say, “1 out of 100.” Within two years, it unified — most of it.

我确信如果你在 1858 年问人们，“三十年内意大利统一的可能性有多大？”他们会说：“十分之一。”两年之内，它统一了——大部分地区。

It was really a chance, but then, because this happened before there was a national spirit, it turned out it was basically an annexation of the South by North, in which the North imposed its laws to the South, and they were not good for the South.

这确实是一个机会，但后来，因为这发生在民族精神出现之前，结果证明这基本上是南北兼并，北方将其法律强加给南方，对南方不利。

One of the best Italian thinkers and most unknown, is this guy Vincenzo Cuoco, who was part of the Neapolitan revolution in 1799, and was actually convicted to death to participate in this revolution.

文森佐·库科 (Vincenzo Cuoco) 是意大利最好的思想家之一，也是最不为人所知的人，他是 1799 年那不勒斯革命的一部分，实际上因参与这场革命而被判处死刑。

This revolution, for people who are not familiar with Italian history, was a Jacobin revolution trying to imitate what they were doing in Paris and in Naples.

对于不熟悉意大利历史的人来说，这场革命是一场雅各宾革命，试图模仿他们在巴黎和那不勒斯所做的事情。

This revolution initially succeeded, and then a cardinal brought some troops from the South of very simple peasants that massacred the Neapolitan elite and brought back the Ancien Régime.

这场革命最初取得了成功，然后一位红衣主教从南方带来了一些非常简单的农民军队，屠杀了那不勒斯的精英并恢复了旧制度。

Then it, of course, went back and forth with Murat, et cetera.

然后，当然，它与穆拉特（Murat）等人来来回回。

The interesting thing about this guy is that after he was convicted to death and then escaped, he wrote a history about that revolution.

这个家伙有趣的是，在他被判死刑然后越狱后，他写了一部关于那场革命的历史。

He’s probably the only person who wrote a history of something that he lived in and gave an interpretation that is valid to this day.

他可能是唯一一个为他所生活的地方写下历史并给出至今仍然有效的解释的人。

His interpretation is you can’t export other models in different contexts.

他的解释是你不能在不同的上下文中导出其他模型。

The Neapolitans who tried to copy France are silly, because they don’t understand the social, cultural, economic context of France at that time was completely different than one of Naples.

那些试图复制法国的那不勒斯人是愚蠢的，因为他们不了解当时法国的社会、文化、经济背景与那不勒斯完全不同。

He has this analogy say, “Every place has its own clothes.” You’re not going to put Finnish clothes to a Greek or Greek clothes to a Finnish, because you’re either going to sweat to death or be freezing.

他有这样的比喻：“每个地方都有自己的衣服。”你不会把芬兰人的衣服穿给希腊人，或者把希腊人的衣服穿给芬兰人，因为你要么会出汗，要么会被冻死。

Why do you want to impose the same rules to everybody?

为什么你想对每个人施加同样的规则？

Italy tried to do this, and the result was that in the South, a complete rejection of the Northern model.

意大利试图这样做，结果是南方完全拒绝了北方模式。

So much so that there was a revolt that we in history call bandits, but in reality was the liberation front that just lost.

以至于出现了历史上我们称之为土匪的叛乱，但实际上是解放阵线刚刚失败。

When you lose, you’re always on the wrong side, and so these are called bandits.

当你输了的时候，你总是站在错误的一边，所以这些人被称为强盗。

The North did not need this.

北方不需要这个。

The South had this revolt, and then they reached a compromise.

南方发生了这次叛乱，然后他们达成了妥协。

There was a compromise not unlike, I think, what happened in the South of the United States.

我认为，这是一种妥协，与美国南部发生的情况没有什么不同。

It was for the worst of both sides, in the sense that North side agreed with the big landowners of the South that we’ll leave them in power in exchange for consensus, and they will retain their power in exchange for an army that defends their land against the revolt of the people.

这对双方来说都是最糟糕的，从某种意义上说，北方同意南方大地主的观点，我们将让他们继续掌权，以换取共识，而他们将保留自己的权力，以换取一支保卫自己土地、反对人民叛乱的军队。

That led the South to underdevelopment for years.

这导致南方多年来一直不发达。

Very few people know that when Italy got unified, the income per capita of Sicily and the one of Emilia‑Romagna around Bologna were the same.

很少有人知道，意大利统一时，西西里岛的人均收入与博洛尼亚周边的艾米利亚-罗马涅地区的人均收入是一样的。

Today, it is almost double the one of Emilia‑Romagna versus Sicily.

如今，这一数字几乎是艾米利亚-罗马涅与西西里岛的两倍。

It’s a huge sort of gap.

这是一个巨大的差距。

Now, why I insist so much on this, because I think there is an analogy that most people don’t fully appreciate between the Italian unification and the European unification.

现在，为什么我如此坚持这一点，因为我认为大多数人并没有完全理解意大利统一和欧洲统一之间的类比。

Europe got unified roughly in the same way.

欧洲大致以同样的方式统一。

There was a small elite that felt European.

有一小群精英感觉是欧洲人。

Most people don’t really feel European, but a small elite feel European.

大多数人并没有真正感受到欧洲人的感觉，但一小部分精英却感觉自己是欧洲人。

They speak the same language, which happens to be English.

他们说同一种语言，恰好是英语。

Pretty soon, England would be out of Europe, but they feel part of the same nation.

很快，英格兰就会脱离欧洲，但他们感觉自己是同一个国家的一部分。

They talk, they go to the same meetings, et cetera.

他们交谈，参加同样的会议，等等。

They’re trying to force unification over the desire of the people.

他们试图强行统一，而不顾人民的愿望。

The result, I think, is not working very well.

我认为结果并不理想。

In the old days, you were sending troops to maintain the South and the order.

以前，你们是派军队来维护南方和秩序的。

Now, you use the Central Bank, but it’s not that different.

现在，你使用中央银行，但没什么不同。

At the end of the day, what I fear is a desertification of the Southern part of Europe similar to what happened in the Southern part of Italy.

归根结底，我担心的是欧洲南部地区会出现类似于意大利南部地区的荒漠化。

The global economy, over the last 20 years, has put greater emphasis on scaling up.

过去 20 年来，全球经济更加注重扩大规模。

The 1980s were much less about scaling up.

20 世纪 80 年代，人们不再关注扩大规模。

You could do better with small- to medium‑sized enterprises in the 1980s.

20 世纪 80 年代，中小企业可以做得更好。

Now everything is about scaling up.

现在一切都是为了扩大规模。

You have Apple, you have Google.

你有苹果，你有谷歌。

Kind of mega‑scale.

有点超大规模。

Italy, more or less, has stayed still.

意大利或多或少保持着静止状态。

China has scaled up.

中国的规模已经扩大。

In the new world where scaling up is really what matters, Italy is left behind.

在扩大规模才是真正重要的新世界中，意大利却被抛在了后面。

That’s the fundamental productivity reason why even the Italian North hasn’t, in some ways, done that well.

这就是为什么即使是意大利北部在某些方面也没有做得那么好的根本生产力原因。

Is that the way you think about it?

你是这样想的吗？

The culture of coffee and a café where you sit and drink, et cetera, what Starbucks is, is an Italian or at most French culture.

咖啡文化和你坐下来喝饮料的咖啡馆等等，比如星巴克，是一种意大利文化，或者至多是法国文化。

Why were you unable to export this?

为什么你无法导出这个？

This is my little explanation.

这是我的一点解释。

By the way, the only country in the world where Starbucks has not arrived is Italy.

顺便说一句，世界上唯一星巴克还没有到来的国家是意大利。

If you go to an Italian coffee shop, the productivity of the individual working there is five times the one of Starbucks.

如果你去一家意大利咖啡店，在那里工作的个人的生产力是星巴克的五倍。

They do coffee, cappuccino, one after the other, no questions asked.

他们一杯接一杯地做咖啡、卡布奇诺，不问任何问题。

They understand five orders contemporaneously.

他们同时理解五个命令。

I understand that Apple is an American product, but when I arrived in this country 27 years ago, you were not really drinking coffee.

我知道苹果是美国产品，但27年前我到达这个国家时，你并没有真正喝咖啡。

You were drinking a dark thing that tastes like I don’t say what because we’re online.

你喝的是一种黑色的东西，味道就像我不说是什么，因为我们在网上。

The culture of coffee did not exist here.

这里不存在咖啡文化。

You come here to the United States, you first go to the cashier.

你来到美国，首先去收银台。

You have to repeat five times what you want, then another repeat five times to the one producing it, and then five times to the one delivering it.

你必须将你想要的东西重复五次，然后再对产生它的人重复五次，然后对交付它的人重复五次。

How can Starbucks compete?

星巴克如何竞争？

The answer is very simple.

答案很简单。

The bar, the Italian café, is one shop, one establishment thing.

酒吧，意大利咖啡馆，是一家商店，一家机构。

If you go to a café, you’re going to find that at the register, there is an old woman who is generally owner, and she watches over everything.

如果你去一家咖啡馆，你会发现收银台上有一位老妇人，她通常是老板，她看管着一切。

Why?

为什么？

In Starbucks, everything is computerized, so you know at the end of the day how many coffee you have to have, how much rent you have to have, how much coffee you have consumed.

在星巴克，一切都是电脑化的，所以你最终知道你需要喝多少咖啡，你需要支付多少租金，你喝了多少咖啡。

You can actually order coffee online automatically, because everything is centralized in Seattle, so you can scale it.

你实际上可以自动在线订购咖啡，因为一切都集中在西雅图，所以你可以扩展它。

The extreme agency problems of Italy make it difficult to scale firms.

意大利的极端代理问题使得企业规模扩大变得困难。

Either you have family firms in which you have all the employees that are part of the family, and it’s not obvious that family does not steal, but still less so.

要么你拥有家族企业，其中所有员工都是家族的一部分，家族不偷窃的情况并不明显，但更不如此。

Is this sustainable culturally, or is this Italy’s future, in essence, to be economically colonized the way parts of Southeast Asia have been by Chinese, Indians, Sikhs, whoever it may be.

这在文化上是可持续的吗？或者说，这就是意大利的未来，从本质上讲，它会像东南亚部分地区一样被中国人、印度人、锡克教徒，无论是谁，在经济上殖民化。

Maybe Germans.

也许是德国人。

When you’re down to one or two kids, the chance that one is an idiot is pretty large.

当你只有一两个孩子时，其中一个是白痴的可能性就相当大了。

The result is that you can’t really transfer the business within the family.

结果就是家族内部的生意无法真正转移。

The biggest problem of Italy is actually fertility, in my view, because we don’t have enough kids.

在我看来，意大利最大的问题实际上是生育率，因为我们没有足够的孩子。

If you don’t have enough kids, you don’t have enough people to transfer.

如果你没有足够的孩子，你就没有足够的人可以转移。

You don’t have enough young people to be dynamic.

你没有足够的年轻人来充满活力。

The Italian culture has a lot of defects, but the entrepreneurship culture was there, has been there, and it still is there, but we don’t have enough young people.

意大利文化有很多缺陷，但是创业文化曾经存在，曾经存在，现在仍然存在，但我们没有足够的年轻人。

What the Chinese are doing are taking over, mostly, the bars, the restaurants, the smaller things initially because those are the easier ones to enter.

中国人正在做的事情主要是接管酒吧、餐馆和较小的地方，因为这些地方更容易进入。

They’re many and they’re very dynamic.

他们人数很多，而且非常有活力。

I think that’s exactly the Italian problem.

我认为这正是意大利的问题。

I think that the combination between lack of fertility, lack of productivity growth, and not particularly lawful immigration makes demography being the number one consideration.

我认为，生育率低下、生产力增长缓慢以及移民不合法等因素综合在一起，使得人口结构成为首要考虑因素。

I’ve said this like 10 years ago.

我10年前就说过这句话了。

Of course, nobody wants to talk about these things, but it’s inevitable.

当然，没有人愿意谈论这些事情，但这是不可避免的。

Of course, all the Italians are waiting, but when the time comes and things are truly desperate, Italy has often done best in desperate times, and the wealth is there to pay off the debt.

当然，所有的意大利人都在等待，但到了真正绝望的时候，意大利往往在绝望的时候做得最好，财富就在那里还清债务。

Everyone’s simply playing a postponing game.

每个人都只是在玩一个拖延游戏。

True or false?

是真是假？

You mentioned correctly houses.

你正确地提到了房子。

That’s the only stuff that cannot run away.

这是唯一逃不掉的东西。

People run away.

人们逃跑了。

Financial capital runs away.

金融资本流失。

Houses don’t run away.

房子不会逃跑。

First of all, Italians are taxed very little on houses today.

首先，如今意大利人对房屋征税很少。

The first decision that Renzi has made is to de‑tax houses completely.

伦齐做出的第一个决定是彻底取消房屋税。

How can you tax a lot of other stuff?

你怎么能对很多其他东西征税呢？

Labor leaves.

劳工离开。

I’m an example of that.

我就是一个例子。

Unfortunately, there is an increasing number of people leaving.

不幸的是，离开的人越来越多。

When I left Italy, very few people were leaving at that time.

当我离开意大利时，当时离开的人很少。

Today, it’s hard to find people of the younger generation not leaving.

如今，很难找到年轻一代不离开的人。

It’s really a major migration that, by the way, decreases the human capital.

顺便说一下，这确实是一次重大移民，减少了人力资本。

Who are leaving?

谁要离开？

Italy is in the business of exporting high human capital people and importing low human capital people, so it’s not a good trade.

意大利从事的是出口高人力资本人才和进口低人力资本人才的业务，所以这不是一个好的贸易。

As long as you are in the European Union, even financial mobility is like saying — unfortunately, I always choose the wrong places, because I live in Illinois.

只要你在欧盟，即使是金融流动性也像是在说 —— 不幸的是，我总是选择错误的地方，因为我住在伊利诺伊州。

Illinois is not that different from Italy.

伊利诺伊州与意大利没有什么不同。

It used to be that in Italy this was not the case, but what the European Union has done is to basically eliminate this bias.

以前意大利不是这样的，但欧盟所做的就是基本消除这种偏见。

I grew up in Veneto, which is not far from Austria and Slovenia.

我在威尼托长大，那里离奥地利和斯洛文尼亚不远。

People moved to Austria and Slovenia anytime.

人们随时搬到奥地利和斯洛文尼亚。

Why do you want to stay in Italy where you’re taxed more, things work less well, et cetera?

为什么你想留在意大利，那里你的税收更高，工作不太顺利，等等？

The elasticity is very large.

弹性非常大。

If you try to catch up in that game, I think that you’re going to lose.

如果你试图在那场比赛中迎头赶上，我认为你会输。

On US politics

关于美国政治

You’re Italian, a quarter Sicilian, I’m told, and you’ve lived here now, not here, you’ve lived in Illinois for 27 years.

我听说你是意大利人，有四分之一的西西里血统，你现在住在这里，而不是这里，你已经在伊利诺伊州住了 27 年了。

What is it you see about us that we don’t?

您在我们身上看到了什么而我们没有看到的？

You’re a kind of Tocqueville of Italy.

你就像意大利的托克维尔。

A lot of your papers are on the United States.

你的很多论文都是关于美国的。

What’s the insight into us that you get and we lack?

您对我们有哪些了解，而我们缺乏哪些了解？

They both profess themselves as free marketeers, but they both made their money in businesses that are the ultimate opposite of free markets.

他们都自称是自由市场主义者，但他们都是在与自由市场完全相反的行业中赚钱的。

This is real estate and gambling versus real estate and TV that is basically a regulated utility in Italy.

这是房地产和赌博，而房地产和电视基本上是意大利受监管的公用事业。

You make money by having the right connection with government.

您通过与政府建立正确的联系来赚钱。

That’s their version of the free market.

这就是他们的自由市场版本。

are both extremely good salesmen.

都是非常优秀的推销员。

They’re both extremely wealthy and not afraid to show off their wealth.

他们都非常富有，而且不害怕炫耀自己的财富。

They’re both obsessed with women.

他们都对女人着迷。

They’re both obsessed with hair, or lack of hair for Berlusconi.

他们都痴迷于头发，或者说贝卢斯科尼缺乏头发。

They’re both extremely good, and this is the success of Berlusconi and the success of Trump, in portraying themselves as a friend of the people.

他们都非常优秀，这就是贝卢斯科尼和特朗普的成功，将自己描绘成人民的朋友。

In part, it’s because they speak at a very low level, so people identify with them.

部分原因是他们说话的水平非常低，所以人们认同他们。

They are happy to identify, because even somebody that is so crass like Berlusconi can become rich.

他们很高兴能认出这一点，因为即使是像贝卢斯科尼这样粗鲁的人也能变得富有。

Maybe I can make it, too.

也许我也能做到。

That self‑identification is very important.

这种自我认同非常重要。

The most important thing, and this is coming to my advantage, having seen what Berlusconi got presented for Italy, I became much more concerned about what the United States are becoming.

最重要的是，这对我有利，在看到贝卢斯科尼为意大利所做的一切之后，我变得更加关心美国正在变成什么样子。

My favorite line is that the great contribution of Berlusconi to human kind is that he made things transparent.

我最喜欢的一句话是，贝卢斯科尼对人类的伟大贡献是他让事情变得透明。

Berlusconi is the integrated version of the US Congress.

贝卢斯科尼是美国国会的整合版。

In what sense?

从什么意义上说？

In the US Congress, you have people that were lobbyists before, they become congressmen, and then they go back to lobby.

在美国国会，有些人以前是说客，后来成为国会议员，然后又回去游说。

At least until they are congressman, or secretary of the treasury, et cetera, they are not employee of somebody.

至少在他们成为国会议员或财政部长等之前，他们不是某人的雇员。

They are beholden to somebody because they come there, they go there, but at the moment, there’s a little bit of appearance of separation.

他们对某人负有感激之情，因为他们来到那里，他们去那里，但此刻，有一点分离的迹象。

Berlusconi did not even care about the appearance.

贝卢斯科尼甚至不关心外表。

Everything was integrated.

一切都被整合了。

He ran a party with his own employees.

他与自己的员工举办了一场聚会。

He created a party.

他创建了一个政党。

From a strategic point of view, in three months, he created the party, and he was sending his ad agency guys, being the party leaders, all over the place.

从战略角度来看，他在三个月内创建了这个政党，并派出他的广告公司人员，作为政党的领导人，到各地去。

The same people became, then, his members of parliament.

后来，这些人成为了他的议会成员。

The others were his personal lawyer, his personal something else, and so on.

其他的是他的私人律师，他私人的其他东西，等等。

They became members of parliament, ministers.

他们成为议会议员、部长。

You have the minister of telecommunications that was the employee of Berlusconi deciding on rules on telecommunication that affected Berlusconi.

电信部长是贝卢斯科尼的雇员，他决定影响贝卢斯科尼的电信规则。

Tullock was actually surprised, in a way, relative to that, how little was spent on lobbying.

相对于此，塔洛克实际上在某种程度上感到惊讶的是，游说方面的花费竟然如此之少。

For him, there’s some kind of structural barrier story.

对他来说，有某种结构性障碍的故事。

What’s your take on the Tullock paradox?

您对塔洛克悖论有何看法？

Why aren’t we even more corrupt yet, given what percent of GDP in this country is allocated through mechanisms of a mix of force and democratic whatever you want to call it rather than voluntary exchange?

考虑到这个国家国内生产总值的百分之几是通过武力和民主（无论你怎么称呼它）的混合机制而不是自愿交换机制来分配的，为什么我们还没有变得更加腐败呢？

The second is, in my view, the reason why we don’t see enough money is twofold.

第二，在我看来，我们没有看到足够的钱的原因是双重的。

Number one, there is ideology.

第一，有意识形态。

You can’t really pay everybody.

你不可能真正付钱给每个人。

People will have some preferences — especially when they’re not paid a lot — for some position.

人们会对某些职位有一些偏好 ——尤其是当他们的薪水不高时。

That decreases the power of money.

这会削弱金钱的力量。

The most important fact is that some people find it very easy to collect money, which are vested interests.

最重要的事实是，有些人觉得收钱很容易，这是既得利益者。

They organize because they’re small.

他们组织起来是因为他们很小。

This is Mancur Olson.

我是曼瑟·奥尔森。

They organize much faster, they can collect money faster.

他们组织得更快，他们可以更快地筹集资金。

The public at large finds it difficult to collect money.

广大公众发现筹集资金很困难。

The paradox of Tullock, the way I like to describe it, the Gordon Tullock paradox is the following.

塔洛克悖论，按照我喜欢的描述方式，戈登塔洛克悖论如下。

Imagine you have some lottery tickets in which, unlike most lotteries, which the state gets most of it, is pure, actuarially fair.

想象一下，你有一些彩票，与大多数彩票不同，其中大部分彩票是由国家获得的，这些彩票是纯粹的、精算公平的。

You know that you are going to buy let’s say $5 trillion that pay off, and you start to sell the tickets.

你知道你将购买 5 万亿美元并获得回报，然后你开始出售门票。

You know that by buying all the tickets, for sure you’re going to get $5 trillion.

你知道，买下所有门票，你肯定会得到 5 万亿美元。

It seems that why the collective amount of tickets doesn’t sell for $5 trillion?

看来为什么门票总金额卖不到5万亿美元呢？

That’s basically what Tullock is saying.

这基本上就是塔洛克所说的。

He’s saying why, if we are purely cynical and we try to buy all the votes, if you buy all the votes in Congress and for president, you can get to allocate a lot of goodies.

他说为什么，如果我们纯粹愤世嫉俗，我们试图购买所有选票，如果你购买国会和总统的所有选票，你就可以分配很多好东西。

The value of the votes collectively should be at least the value of the rents you get and all the goodies you allocate, which we can discuss how much it is, but it’s in the order of trillions of dollars.

选票的总价值应该至少是你获得的租金和你分配的所有好东西的价值，我们可以讨论它是多少，但它是数万亿美元的数量级。

The point is that the public at large is not able to coordinate and beat very much for those votes.

问题在于，广大公众无法协调并大力争取这些选票。

Those votes sell cheap.

这些选票卖得很便宜。

Why do they sell cheap?

为什么他们卖得便宜？

Because the parties are not well organized.

因为聚会组织得不好。

Since the time of Gordon Tullock to today, people got more and more organized, and so the price is going up, but there is a way to go.

从戈登·塔洛克时代到今天，人们变得越来越有组织，所以价格在上涨，但还有很长的路要走。

If we don’t do something, there is a way to go and spend more.

如果我们不做点什么，就有办法花更多的钱。

I think that Gordon Tullock was absolutely right.

我认为戈登·塔洛克是绝对正确的。

The interesting thing is that Gordon Tullock implicitly, because the type of game he designed for this, it’s a game in which there is a benefit for society to put some limits.

有趣的是，戈登·塔洛克（Gordon Tullock）含蓄地表示，因为他为此设计的游戏类型是一种对社会设置一些限制有好处的游戏。

I actually enjoyed, in my book, to pick a little bit on Robert Barro, because Robert Barro defends restrictions in basketball and baseball but not in everywhere else in the United States.

事实上，我很喜欢在我的书中对罗伯特·巴罗进行一些批评，因为罗伯特·巴罗捍卫篮球和棒球领域的限制，但并不捍卫美国其他地方的限制。

I don’t understand why in the United States the only thing that is really noncompetitive is sports.

我不明白为什么在美国唯一真正非竞争性的事情就是体育。

In Europe, the only thing that is really competitive is sports.

在欧洲，唯一真正有竞争力的就是体育。

In Italy, soccer you are the first division, second division, you are promoted or demoted, according to performance.

在意大利，足球你是甲级、乙级，你的晋级或降级，取决于表现。

You don’t buy your way into the NFL or the Major League, et cetera.

你不会花钱进入美国国家橄榄球联盟（NFL）或美国职业棒球大联盟（Major League）等。

Here, you buy the franchise, and once you’re in, no matter how incompetent you are, you stay there, which is completely un‑American.

在这里，你购买了特许经营权，一旦你进去了，无论你多么无能，你都会留在那里，这完全不美国。

I don’t understand why in the United States the only thing that is really noncompetitive is sports.

我不明白为什么在美国唯一真正非竞争性的事情就是体育。

In Europe, the only thing that is really competitive is sports.

在欧洲，唯一真正有竞争力的就是体育。

You don’t buy your way into the NFL or the Major League.

你不会花钱进入美国国家橄榄球联盟 (NFL) 或美国职业棒球大联盟 (Major League)。

Here, you buy the franchise, and once you’re in, no matter how incompetent you are, you stay there, which is completely un‑American.

在这里，你购买了特许经营权，一旦你进去了，无论你多么无能，你都会留在那里，这完全不美国。

I’m sure you know Luigi Barzini’s analysis of the multiplicity of masks in Italy.

我相信你知道路易吉·巴尔齐尼（Luigi Barzini）对意大利口罩多样性的分析。

Sometimes the outsiders who think it’s so freewheeling overlook these significant elements of hierarchy.

有时，那些认为这是随心所欲的局外人会忽视等级制度的这些重要元素。

The question I want to ask you is these recent New York Times articles about Amazon and how Amazon either treated or allegedly treated its employees.

我想问你的问题是《纽约时报》最近发表的有关亚马逊以及亚马逊如何对待或据称对待其员工的文章。

The woman took off a day to give birth to a child, the next day she was expected to come back in, all kinds of demands.

女人请了一天生孩子，第二天又要回来，各种要求。

People supposedly left the company crying.

据说人们离开公司时都是哭着的。

A lot of hierarchy.

很多层次结构。

Pay was pretty good.

报酬相当不错。

Given your analysis of the business firm and hierarchy, what’s your take on this whole Amazon story?

根据您对商业公司和等级制度的分析，您对整个亚马逊故事有何看法？

Do you think Amazon, those people are heroes, or this is inhumane, or we have the balance wrong?

你认为亚马逊那些人是英雄，还是这是不人道的，或者我们的平衡错了？

What do you say?

你怎么说？

There is always the trade‑off between incentives and some form of insurance.

激励措施和某种形式的保险之间总是存在权衡。

If you eliminate every insurance, you have all incentives, then incentives are great but people are not particularly happy.

如果你取消每一项保险，你就有了所有的激励措施，那么激励措施是很大的，但人们并不是特别高兴。

You need to find the right trade‑off.

您需要找到正确的权衡。

I come from a region in Italy where there are a lot of family firms.

我来自意大利的一个地区，那里有很多家族企业。

What is extremely moving and depressing in this moment is, in these firms, when they go bankrupt, the owners commit suicide.

此时此刻最令人感动又令人沮丧的是，在这些公司里，当它们破产时，所有者就会自杀。

It is a pretty large number of suicides today because, unfortunately, the business is not doing well.

今天自杀人数相当多，因为不幸的是，生意做得不好。

Sometimes, they leave their life insurance to pay the salary of the employees, and then they commit suicide.

有时，他们会留下人寿保险来支付员工的工资，然后自杀。

That’s a completely orthogonal view of the firm like we are a family.

这是对公司完全正交的看法，就像我们是一个家庭一样。

Which one is better depends on a lot of things.

哪一个更好取决于很多因素。

Depends on how much is important to transfer knowledge within the family.

取决于家庭内部知识转移的重要性。

Italian firms specialize, or used to be specialized, in craftsmanship that is hard to teach unless you have a dedicated person transferring this.

意大利公司专注于或曾经专注于工艺，除非有专门的人来传授，否则很难传授。

That’s the reason why they were family firms, because the parents transferred to the kids.

这就是他们成为家族企业的原因，因为父母的利益转移给了孩子。

A lot of the education in Italy is done in the family.

意大利的很多教育都是在家庭中完成的。

One of the best things about Italians, for example, is that they sit down at dinner.

例如，意大利人最好的事情之一就是他们坐下来吃晚饭。

You say, “Why so important?” I thought that everybody sit down at dinner with their family.

你说：“为什么这么重要？”我以为每个人都会和家人一起坐下来吃晚饭。

I realized in America, a lot of people don’t sit down at dinner.

我意识到在美国，很多人不坐下来吃晚饭。

When I grew up, I sit down at lunch and dinner.

当我长大后，我会坐下来吃午餐和晚餐。

Today, it’s difficult, because most people are not around at lunch.

今天，这很困难，因为大多数人都不在午餐时间。

There is a tradition of spending some time around the dinner table.

有在餐桌旁度过一些时间的传统。

That’s a place where you socialize, you learn, you transfer human capital from the older generation to the younger generation.

这是一个你社交、学习、将人力资本从老一代转移到年轻一代的地方。

I think that this is one thing that is lacking in the United States that they can learn from Italy.

我认为这是美国所缺乏的一件事，他们可以向意大利学习。

there is a tradition of spending some time around the dinner table.

有一种在餐桌旁度过时光的传统。

That’s a place where you socialize, you learn, you transfer human capital from the older generation to the younger generation.

这是一个你社交、学习、将人力资本从老一代转移到年轻一代的地方。

I think that this is one thing that is lacking in the United States that they can learn from Italy.

我认为这是美国所缺乏的一件事，他们可以向意大利学习。

On Google and conglomeration

关于谷歌和企业集团

I think it’s very important to find where to invest the money.

我认为找到资金的投资方向非常重要。

This is why markets are so important, because we’re not that good at it.

这就是市场如此重要的原因，因为我们并不擅长市场。

I admit, I teach entrepreneurship, but if I were that good at picking the right investments, I would be a multibillionaire and I’m not.

我承认，我教授创业精神，但如果我那么善于选择正确的投资，我就会成为亿万富翁，但我不是。

It’s a difficult business to do.

这是一项很难做的生意。

That’s where the market is useful.

这就是市场的用处。

My fear is that Google .

我担心的是谷歌。

.

。

.

。

Especially because the governance of Google resembles more the governance of Italian companies rather than the one of American companies.

特别是因为谷歌的治理更像是意大利公司的治理，而不是美国公司的治理。

There’s not a lot of floating, voting stock.

没有太多流通的、有投票权的股票。

The power is concentrated in the hand of few people.

权力集中在少数人手中。

As long as these few people are at the top of their game, and they’re smart, and they are in the right sector at the right time, great.

只要这几个人处于行业领先地位，而且他们很聪明，并且在正确的时间处于正确的领域，那就太好了。

As we all know, people age or change, and there will be a time in which they’re not up to the game and they need to be replaced.

众所周知，人会变老或发生变化，总有一天他们会无法胜任，需要被替换。

At that time, the temptation for them to waste a lot of money will be pretty strong.

到时候，他们花很多钱的诱惑就会很大。

On the essential Zingales

关于基本的 Zingales

You’ve worked in a lot of different areas, and I’m going to try to give my account of what I see as the underlying unities in your thought.

您在很多不同的领域工作过，我将尝试阐述我所认为的您思想中的基本统一性。

You’ve released papers, many more.

您已经发表了更多论文。

A true stack would be higher.

真正的堆栈会更高。

There’s a lot of breadth there, but I think it is tied together.

那里有很多广度，但我认为它们是联系在一起的。

I’ll tell you how I see it is tied together and you respond to that.

我会告诉你我如何看待它是联系在一起的，你对此有何反应。

How’s that?

怎么样？

There’s another way I think of what you’re doing.

我还有另一种方式来看待你正在做的事情。

This is maybe more Italian.

这可能更意大利化。

Take the Italian Marxist Antonio Gramsci, who wrote about hegemony, and power, and control.

以意大利马克思主义者安东尼奥·葛兰西为例，他撰写了有关霸权、权力和控制的文章。

To me, you read like someone who read Gramsci at an early age, was quite struck by it, maybe didn’t agree with it, but you’re taking all of his questions and reasking them about control and hierarchy but with real economics and with something like scientific method.

对我来说，你读起来就像一个年轻时读过葛兰西的人，被它深深震撼，也许不同意它，但你正在接受他所有的问题，并用真正的经济学和科学方法之类的东西重新询问它们关于控制和等级制度的问题。

In both ways, you’re quite this Italian thinker.

从这两个方面来看，您都是一位典型的意大利思想家。

I have this saying, “All thinkers are regional thinkers.

我有句话说：“所有的思想家都是区域性的思想家。

You just have to figure out what the region is.” You’re redoing Gramsci with economics or you’re redoing economics with culture and governance.

你只需要弄清楚这个地区是什么。”你正在用经济学重做葛兰西，或者你正在用文化和治理重做经济学。

Then, there’s this other Gramscian dimension to your thought.

然后，你的思想还有另一个葛兰西维度。

He once said, “In the medium of the intellect, I am a pessimist, but when it comes to the medium of the will, I am an optimistic.” There’s this seesawing back and forth of the extreme pessimism and extreme optimism.

他曾经说过：“在智力方面，我是一个悲观主义者，但在意志方面，我是一个乐观主义者。”极端悲观主义和极端乐观主义之间来回摇摆。

I see that in your work, too.

我在你的作品中也看到了这一点。

You’re an Italian who came to the US with such high hopes.

你是一个带着如此厚望来到美国的意大利人。

In many ways, you love it, but in other ways, you’re deeply disappointed.

在很多方面，你喜欢它，但在其他方面，你深感失望。

You keep on seeing the unities between US and Italy, corporations and government, and the practical pessimism of this state of affairs.

你不断看到美国和意大利、企业和政府之间的团结，以及这种事态的实际悲观情绪。

Yet, you’re propelled to do something about it by writing, speaking, being a public figure, and so on.

然而，你会被迫通过写作、演讲、成为公众人物等等来为此做点什么。

That would be like my two‑minute version of who you are, what you do.

这就像我用两分钟描述的你是谁、你做什么。

What do you say to that?

你对此有何看法？

I think that intellectual tradition of Chicago, Stigler, when he invented regulatory capture was borrowing from Marx.

我认为斯蒂格勒发明管制俘获时芝加哥的思想传统是借鉴了马克思的。

It’s right‑wing Marxism.

这是右翼马克思主义。

I thought it was a brilliant system.

我认为这是一个出色的系统。

I think I have this element that goes back to my Sicilian roots.

我想我的这种元素可以追溯到我的西西里根源。

If you are in the military and you are challenged to a duel, if you did it, you were punished.

如果你在军队里，并且有人向你提出决斗的挑战，如果你这么做了，你就会受到惩罚。

If you did not do it, you were demoted.

如果你不这样做，你就会被降职。

Which is the right way to do it.

这是正确的做法。

You don’t want to encourage something like this, but you don’t want to encourage people to be cowards.

你不想鼓励这样的事情，但你也不想鼓励人们成为懦夫。

I thought it was a brilliant system.

我认为这是一个出色的系统。

Why is, say, Macedonia in the situation it is right now and Southern France is not?

比如说，为什么马其顿会出现现在的情况，而法国南部则不然？

It seems to have something to do with that line.

好像和那条线有关系。

I’ve never been to Macedonia.

我从未去过马其顿。

Definitely, when you go to Moscow, you feel it’s a different world.

当然，当你去莫斯科时，你会觉得这是一个不同的世界。

It’s interesting because my notion of culture is probably more Mediterranean then East/West.

这很有趣，因为我对文化的看法可能更多是地中海文化，而不是东方/西方文化。

I feel fairly at home in the Mediterranean.

我在地中海感觉很自在。

I went, actually, to Iran before Obama reached the deal because I’m an Italian citizen so I could go to Iran without any problem.

事实上，在奥巴马达成协议之前我就去了伊朗，因为我是意大利公民，所以我可以毫无问题地去伊朗。

I was moved by how European, if you want — the Persian culture is very much linked to all the traditions in the Mediterranean.

我被欧洲（如果你愿意的话）——波斯文化与地中海所有传统的紧密联系所感动。

So I don’t feel it’s so much East.

所以我觉得不太东方。

By the way, Iranian people are super lovely people, and they’re not anti‑American.

顺便说一句，伊朗人民是超级可爱的人民，他们并不反美。

In fact, you find more anti‑Americanism in France than you find in Iran.

事实上，你在法国发现的反美主义比在伊朗更多。

On things under- and overrated

关于被低估和高估的事情

Recreating a positive feeling toward Germany that was absent in Europe and taking, I think, the right approach.

重新树立欧洲所没有的对德国的积极感觉，并采取我认为正确的方法。

We want refugees, because refugees are the best people.

我们想要难民，因为难民是最好的人。

Not only is there a moral obligation to save people that escape extermination, it’s also an economic consideration.

拯救那些免遭灭绝的人不仅是道义上的义务，也是经济上的考虑。

These are the most talented, the most entrepreneurial, the most dynamic people in the world.

他们是世界上最有才华、最具创业精神、最有活力的人。

We want to have them.

我们想要拥有它们。

Probably 800,000 people are less than 1 percent of Germany.

大概有 80 万人口不到德国人口的 1%。

I’ve been anticlerical because I really thought that the problem of Italy was that the Church was there.

我一直是反教权的，因为我真的认为意大利的问题在于教会的存在。

Once, I actually was discussing with a cardinal in Chicago.

有一次，我实际上正在与芝加哥的一位红衣主教讨论。

They said, “No, no, the problem is the other way around.

他们说：“不，不，问题是相反的。

The problem with the Vatican is the Vatican is in Italy.”

梵蒂冈的问题是梵蒂冈位于意大利。”

I’ve been anticlerical because I really thought that the problem of Italy was that the Church was there.

我一直是反教权的，因为我真的认为意大利的问题在于教会的存在。

Once, I actually was discussing with a cardinal in Chicago.

有一次，我实际上正在与芝加哥的一位红衣主教讨论。

They said, “No, no, the problem is the other way around.

他们说：“不，不，问题是相反的。

The problem with the Vatican is the Vatican is in Italy.”

梵蒂冈的问题在于梵蒂冈位于意大利。”

Because they end up being sued in here in the States and losing money in the States for responsibilities of the Vatican, and the Vatican did not chip in one dime.

因为他们最终在美国被起诉，在美国因梵蒂冈的责任而赔钱，而梵蒂冈却没有出一分钱。

Not only that, it was wasting money with this IOR, Istituto per le Opere di Religione, that was a money‑laundering organization.

不仅如此，IOR（Istituto per le Opere di Religione）是一个洗钱组织，还在浪费金钱。

Something that should be dedicated to charity was a money‑laundering organization.

应该致力于慈善事业的是洗钱组织。

Pope Francis is changing all this.

教皇方济各正在改变这一切。

My only hope is that he’s not killed, because I think the chances of him being killed is not zero.

我唯一的希望是他没有被杀，因为我认为他被杀的可能性不为零。

He’s fantastic.

他太棒了。

I think that Catholic countries caught up fairly well.

我认为天主教国家已经迎头赶上。

I think that some of the Protestant ethic is useful in the system, but I don’t think it’s necessarily the major cause of retardation in development.

我认为一些新教伦理在这个体系中是有用的，但我不认为这一定是发展迟缓的主要原因。

I think it’s something you want to think about, but I don’t think it’s the major cause of underdevelopment around the world.

我认为这是你想要考虑的事情，但我不认为这是世界各地不发达的主要原因。

It’s really a desperation, but the movie is wonderful.

确实很绝望，但是电影很棒。

There is Claudia Cardinale out of this world, and Burt Lancaster and Alain Delon, really a fantastic thing.

这里有克劳迪娅·卡汀娜 (Claudia Cardinale)，还有伯特·兰卡斯特 (Burt Lancaster) 和阿兰·德龙 (Alain Delon)，真是太棒了。

I showed it to my wife.

我把它拿给我妻子看。

She thinks it’s slow because it lasts three hours and a half.

她认为这很慢，因为它持续了三个半小时。

It’s not something that generally you have in Hollywood movies, but the quality of the scenes and the quality, also, of the silences is out of this world.

这不是好莱坞电影中常见的东西，但场景的质量和沉默的质量是世界上绝无仅有的。

Before he even was a politician, he started being an agitator in shareholders’ meetings and going to shareholders’ meetings with one share, starting to ask questions and pose problems in Italian corporate governance.

在成为政治家之前，他就开始在股东大会上充当煽动者，并以一股去参加股东大会，开始在意大利公司治理中提出问题和提出问题。

Was very successful, at least, at raising the level of awareness.

至少在提高意识水平方面非常成功。

In that sense, he did something very valuable.

从这个意义上说，他做了一件非常有价值的事情。

On monetary policy

关于货币政策

Over the course of the last 10 years, how have your views changed?

过去10年，您的观点发生了怎样的变化？

I don’t mean on particulars, but at the conceptual level?

我指的不是细节，而是概念层面？

On the other hand, I have seen the eurozone fall slowly into deflation.

另一方面，我看到欧元区慢慢陷入通货紧缩。

For six months last year, we’re in the deflation range.

去年有六个月的时间，我们处于通货紧缩范围内。

This maybe is my Italian heart bleeding, but when you have a huge amount of debt and you start to have deflation — Irving Fisher was right, the debt‑deflation spiral is pretty terrible.

这也许是我意大利人的心在流血，但是当你背负巨额债务并开始出现通货紧缩时——欧文·费舍尔是对的，债务-通货紧缩的螺旋式上升是相当可怕的。

That’s probably the worst possible outcome.

这可能是最糟糕的结果。

I think that generals are famous to be prepared to fight the last war, and so are economists and central bankers.

我认为将军们以做好打最后一场战争的准备而闻名，经济学家和央行行长也是如此。

The ECB has been set up to fight inflation.

欧洲央行的成立是为了对抗通货膨胀。

It’s completely unprepared to think in those terms.

它完全没有准备好以这些方式思考。

In fact I would raise this charge, because when the European leaders talk, they say that “Oh, our objective is an inflation below but close to 2 percent,” and I look for a statement of this type.

事实上，我会提出这一指控，因为当欧洲领导人讲话时，他们会说“哦，我们的目标是通胀率低于但接近 2%”，我期待此类声明。

If you look in the web page of the ECB, they say that they want inflation below 2 percent — so there’s no close — below 2 percent.

如果你查看欧洲央行的网页，他们会说他们希望通胀率低于 2%——所以没有接近 2% 的目标。

Inflation is measured as the amount expressed in the European level.

通货膨胀是以欧洲水平表示的金额来衡量的。

Then they want every individual CPI of every country below but close to 2 percent.

然后他们希望每个国家的个人 CPI 低于但接近 2%。

If you have an average and every term has to be below two, even close to two, the average must be below two, probably by a lot.

如果你有一个平均值，并且每一项都必须低于二，甚至接近二，那么平均值必须低于二，可能要低很多。

On behavioral economics

论行为经济学

There’s another paper I want to ask you about.

我还有另一篇论文想问你。

It’s about impatience and procrastination.

这是关于不耐烦和拖延。

It’s often the case the same people who are very impatient and procrastinate — and you give the example of people who were very impatient to get a check — they’ll even settle for a much smaller sum of money to get the check now.

通常情况下，同样的人非常不耐烦和拖延——你举了那些非常不耐烦拿到支票的人的例子——他们甚至会满足于现在花更少的钱来拿到支票。

Then they get the check, and they don’t cash it or spend it or do anything with it.

然后他们拿到支票，但他们不会兑现或花费它或用它做任何事情。

They get it, and then they procrastinate.

他们明白了，然后他们就拖延。

What’s the underlying view or model of human behavior that causes impatience and procrastination to go together?

导致不耐烦和拖延同时发生的人类行为的基本观点或模式是什么？

Many experiments that are done around the world are done with undergrads.

世界各地进行的许多实验都是由本科生完成的。

Most of them are the poorest undergrads, because they’re the ones that desperately need money, so generally art majors, not really representative of businesspeople.

他们大多数是最穷的本科生，因为他们是急需钱的人，所以一般都是艺术专业的，并不真正代表商人。

A lot of people in economics dismiss some of these results because they say, “Oh, these are the weird guys.

许多经济学人士对其中一些结果不屑一顾，因为他们说：“哦，这些都是奇怪的人。

They’re not the ones that will run big corporations, blah‑blah‑blah.” We started with a sample that, hopefully, will run big corporations and statistically has run big corporations.

他们不是那些会经营大公司的人，等等等等。”我们从一个样本开始，希望该样本能够运营大公司，并且从统计数据来看，该样本已经运营过大公司。

What we find in many of the deviations that behavioral economics find are present in our sample.

我们在行为经济学中发现的许多偏差都存在于我们的样本中。

The particular experiment that Tyler is talking about is at the end of a bunch of games that won an amount of money that was going from $0 to $300 — some people were winning a significant amount of money, $300.

泰勒正在谈论的具体实验是在一系列赢得了从 0 美元到 300 美元的钱的游戏结束时进行的——有些人赢得了一大笔钱，300 美元。

We offer them to delay the delivery by two weeks with value interest rate in some cases at 10 percent over two weeks.

我们建议他们延迟两周交货，在某些情况下，两周内的利率为 10%。

10 percent over two weeks, over $300, is both percentage‑wise huge but even $30 is not trivial, at least for me.

两周内的 10%，超过 300 美元，从百分比来看都是巨大的，但即使是 30 美元也不是微不足道的，至少对我来说。

It may be for my students, it’s more important.

可能对于我的学生来说，更重要。

These guys really give up receiving $30 over two weeks to get the check in the mail that day.

这些人真的放弃了两周内收到 30 美元的交易，只为了当天收到邮寄的支票。

However, this is not the only clever thing we’ve done in that particular study — we follow when they cash that check.

然而，这并不是我们在该特定研究中所做的唯一聪明的事情——当他们兑现支票时我们会跟踪。

On average it was two weeks, but 10 percent never cash it.

平均来说是两周，但 10% 的人从未兑现。

They lost it.

他们失去了它。

These guys really give up receiving $30 over two weeks to get the check in the mail that day.

这些人真的放弃了两周内收到 30 美元的交易，只为了当天收到邮寄的支票。

However, this is not the only clever thing we’ve done in that particular study — we follow when they cash that check.

然而，这并不是我们在该特定研究中所做的唯一聪明的事情——当他们兑现支票时我们会跟踪。

On average it was two weeks, but 10 percent never cash it.

平均来说是两周，但 10% 的人从未兑现。

They lost it.

他们失去了它。

What it means receiving a gift in cash, a check — it’s not even a gift in cash — today over two weeks.

这意味着在两周多的时间里收到现金礼物、支票——“甚至不是现金礼物”。

Once you know you’ll receive it, we think we were fairly credible as a faculty promising.

一旦你知道你会收到它，我们认为我们作为一个有前途的教师是相当可信的。

I think the credibility issue was not major.

我认为可信度问题并不重要。

If you know you won $300, you can go spend it today on your credit card and get the check two weeks from now.

如果您知道自己赢得了 300 美元，那么您今天就可以用信用卡消费，并在两周后领取支票。

The fact that you want to have it now, I think is an interesting aspect about saliency.

我认为你现在就想拥有它，这是显着性的一个有趣的方面。

The fact that once you have it you relax and you forget to cash it is, I think, really interesting by itself.

事实上，一旦你拥有了它，你就会放松下来，然后忘记兑现，我认为这本身就很有趣。

On the future of the EU

关于欧盟的未来

I suppose my expectation will be that the ties become weaker and weaker, Schengen falls away, there’s not a fiscal union.

我想我的预期是这种联系会变得越来越弱，申根区消失，财政联盟也不存在。

The euro becomes a bit more like a currency board.

欧元变得有点像货币局。

National central banks keep certain kinds of liabilities.

各国中央银行保留某些种类的负债。

What’s your prediction for 20 years from now?

您对 20 年后的预测是什么？

European integration: more of it, less of it?

欧洲一体化：多还是少？

What’s the underlying model?

底层模型是什么？

I think that an injection of democracy is what is most needed, and hopefully all the tension, will emerge.

我认为注入民主是最需要的，希望所有的紧张局势都会出现。

If you want to be optimistic, like I want to be, the United States did not have an easy route.

如果你像我一样乐观的话，美国并没有一条轻松的道路。

As I said at the beginning, there was a lot of tension and there was a civil war.

正如我一开始所说，局势非常紧张，还爆发了内战。

Hopefully, in Europe, we already fought the civil war — two — in the last century, so we don’t want any more of that.

希望在欧洲，我们在上个世纪就已经打过内战了，所以我们不想再这样了。

The fact that the process is not linear is inevitable.

事实上，这个过程不是线性的，这是不可避免的。

The fact that there are tensions and bumps is inevitable.

事实上，存在紧张和坎坷是不可避免的。

The important thing is at least you see the right direction, and this is what sometimes I’m not so sure that everybody sees.

重要的是至少你看到了正确的方向，而有时我不太确定每个人都看到了这一点。

I think the right direction is more democracy.

我认为正确的方向是更加民主。

On running a successful organization

论经营一个成功的组织

What I’ve learned in various organizations is the best, most successful organizations are the ones that spend a huge amount of time selecting the good people.

我在各种组织中学到的是，最好、最成功的组织是那些花费大量时间选择优秀人才的组织。

Because it’s very costly to fire — you don’t want to fire unless you have to.

因为解雇的成本非常高——除非迫不得已，否则你不会想解雇。

Once you get the right people in place, organizations, I wouldn’t say run themselves, but almost.

一旦你找到了合适的人、组织，我不会说他们自己运作，但几乎是这样。

If you don’t have the right people in place, you spend a lot of time fixing the hiring mistakes.

如果你没有合适的人选，你就会花费大量时间来修复招聘错误。

Q&A

问答

What, in your view, is the connection, if any, between the financial services industry, the problems in that industry, and the decline in innovation, the decline of new business creation in the US?

在您看来，金融服务业、该行业的问题与美国创新下降、新业务创造下降之间有什么联系（如果有的话）？

Thank you.

谢谢。

Ironically, I don’t think we’re there anymore, but there was period in which venture capitalists were so much flooded with money that they had to dish out this money sufficiently fast, that they had to shell it out in big pieces.

具有讽刺意味的是，我认为我们已经不复存在了，但有一段时间，风险投资家资金如此充裕，以至于他们不得不足够快地投入这笔钱，以至于他们不得不将其大笔支出。

They were only financing more advanced companies, because they couldn’t find the time to actually shell it out in small pieces at a time.

他们只为更先进的公司提供资金，因为他们没有时间一次一小部分地实际支付。

It’s very important that you have capital in the right people to do that.

拥有合适的人才来做到这一点非常重要。

If I were to point out the major problem to financial innovation today in the United States, I know the financial system.

如果要我指出当今美国金融创新的主要问题，我知道是金融体系。

In other countries, I will think it’s the financial system.

在其他国家，我会认为是金融体系。

In Italy, clearly it’s the financial system.

在意大利，显然是金融体系。

In the United States, it’s not.

在美国则不然。

It’s more of a pattern policy and other form of barriers to entry.

这更多的是一种模式政策和其他形式的进入壁垒。

One story that I tell in my book that really motivated me to write the book is when I got approached by some students that were trying to start a company.

我在书中讲述的一个真正激励我写这本书的故事是，一些试图创办公司的学生找到我。

The first thing that they had devised was basically a lobbying plan.

他们设计的第一件事基本上是游说计划。

I said, “If the first thing, the part of the business plan, is the lobbying plan, then we have a problem in America.”

我说：“如果商业计划的第一部分是游说计划，那么我们在美国就有问题了。”

I was talking to some farmer in Italy who was saying in regulation of how much .

我正在与意大利的一些农民交谈，他说要调节多少。

.

。

.

。

what it’s called.

它叫什么。

Not copper.

不是铜。

You give on the vineyard to — they use a copper‑based stuff that you put on the vineyard to prevent some diseases.

你把葡萄园捐给了——他们使用一种铜基材料，你把它放在葡萄园里来预防一些疾病。

There is some regulation.

有一些规定。

There is only one exemption in Europe, and it is for the plant, now it escapes the name, that you make beer.

在欧洲只有一项豁免，那就是酿造啤酒的植物，现在它已经不再是这个名字了。

Because the Germans wanted to make sure that you could produce enough of that to produce beer.

因为德国人希望确保能够生产足够的啤酒来生产啤酒。

Regulation, unfortunately, not just in the United States but also in Europe, is driven by the special interests.

不幸的是，不仅在美国，而且在欧洲，监管都是由特殊利益驱动的。

I think it would be a very nice comparison to do.

我认为这将是一个非常好的比较。

The question is very simple.

问题很简单。

Given the new agreement that the European Union signed with Greece, is there anything, under any conditions, you would see something good coming out of it?

鉴于欧盟与希腊签署的新协议，在任何条件下，您都会看到其中有什么好处吗？

The second part, what Greece can do in order to get out of the crisis, if we forget about the debt negotiation, which we must assume that is going to take place some time soon?

第二部分，如果我们忘记债务谈判（我们必须假设债务谈判即将在不久的将来进行），那么希腊可以采取什么措施来摆脱危机？

The big fear that I have is the political backlash we have seen with the rise of Syriza.

我最担心的是随着激进左翼联盟的崛起而出现的政治反弹。

Now Syriza has been tamed and made part of the European elite.

现在激进左翼联盟已被驯服并成为欧洲精英的一部分。

All of a sudden all the newspapers in Europe are celebrating how great is Tsipras, the same guy that, until yesterday, was a communist, a revolutionary, dangerous.

突然之间，欧洲所有的报纸都在庆祝齐普拉斯有多么伟大，直到昨天，齐普拉斯还是一个共产主义者、一个革命者、一个危险的人。

Now, he’s sort of part of the European team.

现在，他已经是欧洲队的一员了。

Why?

为什么？

Because he signed on the dotted line whatever they told him to sign.

因为他在虚线上签名，无论他们让他签名什么。

My frustration is I agree with a lot of the reforms that the European Union is imposing on Greece.

令我沮丧的是，我同意欧盟对希腊实施的许多改革。

I think that longer term would probably benefit Greece, but I am democratic at heart.

我认为从长远来看可能会对希腊有利，但我本质上是民主的。

I think that the reforms, you should own them.

我认为改革，你应该拥有。

They should not be imposed on you.

它们不应该强加给你。

I think that inevitably the Northern countries are trying to do with Greece what Northern Italy did with Southern Italy.

我认为北方国家不可避免地会像意大利北部对待意大利南部那样对待希腊。

They’re trying not to fix Greece but to minimize the problem for Europe.

他们并不是要解决希腊问题，而是要尽量减少欧洲的问题。

Nobody really in Brussels, except maybe the Greek representative, cares about Greece and the Greek people.

除了希腊代表之外，布鲁塞尔没有人真正关心希腊和希腊人民。

I think that inevitably the Northern countries are trying to do with Greece what Northern Italy did with Southern Italy.

我认为北方国家不可避免地会像意大利北部对待意大利南部那样对待希腊。

They’re trying not to fix Greece but to minimize the problem for Europe.

他们并不是要解决希腊问题，而是要尽量减少欧洲的问题。

Nobody really in Brussels, except maybe the Greek representative, cares about Greece and the Greek people.

除了希腊代表之外，布鲁塞尔没有人真正关心希腊和希腊人民。

They care about stability in the EU and getting that problem off their agenda, exactly like in Turin people did not care about people in Sicily.

他们关心欧盟的稳定，并将这个问题从他们的议程中剔除，就像都灵的人们不关心西西里岛的人们一样。

They care that the revolt will be sedated.

他们关心的是叛乱会被镇静下来。

They did whatever it takes to sedate the revolt — including, by the way, aligning with the Mafia.

他们不惜一切代价镇压叛乱——顺便说一下，包括与黑手党结盟。

One of the reasons why the Mafia is alive and well is because it was a method of control of Sicily that the Northern army used very effectively.

黑手党之所以生机勃勃，原因之一是因为它是北方军队非常有效地使用的一种控制西西里岛的方法。

The long‑term costs are huge.

长期成本是巨大的。

Now, I’m not saying the European Union is helping the Greek Mafia, but I wouldn’t exclude it.

现在，我并不是说欧盟正在帮助希腊黑手党，但我不会排除它。

I wouldn’t exclude it.

我不会排除它。

Also because the people that best can negotiate with the European Union in Greece are part of the Greek elite.

还因为希腊最有能力与欧盟谈判的人都是希腊精英。

They all speak English, travel abroad, are part of the very elite that run the country, up to now, into the grounds.

他们都说英语，出国旅行，是迄今为止管理这个国家的精英的一部分。

Corrupt, crony, and every negative thing that you’re going to say.

腐败、裙带关系，以及你要说的每一个负面的事情。

Why do you expect these guys, all of a sudden, to change just because they’re blessed by the European Union?

为什么你期望这些人突然改变，仅仅因为他们受到欧盟的祝福？

I don’t think that that’s the case.

我认为情况并非如此。

I think that I thought that the so‑called bailout of Greece in 2010 was a disaster, was really a bailout of French and German banks covered with the pretense of helping Greece.

我想，我认为2010年所谓的希腊救助是一场灾难，实际上是打着帮助希腊幌子对法国和德国银行进行的救助。

I think that since then, we’re not recovered from that mistake.

我认为从那时起，我们就没有从那个错误中恢复过来。

I think that’s a really sour spot in the European history and something that will weigh heavily in the future.

我认为这是欧洲历史上的一个真正的酸痛点，并且在未来将产生重大影响。

Actually, I have this line, again, comparing the United States and Italy.

事实上，我再次比较了美国和意大利这句话。

I notice that in Italy, on average, that the personal assistants are great, are really fantastic, and managers are not that good.

我注意到，在意大利，平均而言，私人助理很棒，非常棒，而经理却没有那么好。

My favorite line that did not make me very popular in Italy — Italy is the country with the best secretaries and the worst managers.

我最喜欢的一句话却没有让我在意大利很受欢迎 —— 意大利是一个拥有最好秘书和最差经理的国家。

Luigi, thank you again.

路易吉，再次感谢你。

A great honor and pleasure to have you.

非常荣幸和高兴能有你。

The Mercatus Center gratefully acknowledges the assistance of Stephen M.

Mercatus 中心衷心感谢 Stephen M.

Jones in curating most of the hyperlinks found in this transcript.

琼斯策划了这份文字记录中的大部分超链接。