Kyla Scanlon on Communicating Economic Ideas through Social Media (Ep. 222)

Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.

大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。

Today I’m delighted to be chatting with Kyla Scanlon, who is here with us in the studio.

今天我很高兴能与凯拉·斯坎伦 (Kyla Scanlon) 聊天，她和我们一起在工作室里。

I have described Kyla as a force of nature.

我将凯拉描述为一种自然的力量。

From the point of view of this New Jersey boy, she has come out of nowhere from western Kentucky and is all of a sudden one of the best and also most popular discussers of economics and economic reasoning and economic thinking.

从这个新泽西男孩的角度来看，她从肯塔基州西部突然冒出来，突然成为经济学、经济推理和经济思维方面最好、也是最受欢迎的讨论者之一。

No, I think that’s pretty comprehensive.

不，我认为这非常全面。

Welcome, Kyla.

欢迎，凯拉。

Oh, thanks for having me.

哦，谢谢你邀请我。

Let’s start with your origin story.

让我们从你的起源故事开始。

When you’re young, you’re going to libraries a lot, right?

当你年轻的时候，你会经常去图书馆，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

What is it you’re reading?

你在读什么？

And why do you read that stuff?

你为什么读那些东西？

Oh, I read a lot of fiction when I was younger, and it was mostly because I was trying to understand world-building.

哦，我年轻的时候读了很多小说，主要是因为我想了解世界的构建。

I was really fascinated by that, so I read the Graceling series and Harry Potter.

我对此非常着迷，所以我读了《格雷斯琳》系列和《哈利·波特》。

For me, the library was also a place to go that supported that kind of learning.

对我来说，图书馆也是支持这种学习的地方。

I didn’t realize that reading books was cool until I went to the library.

直到我去了图书馆，我才意识到读书很酷。

It had been really formative with how I thought about learning throughout my entire childhood and adolescence.

它对我整个童年和青春期的学习思考方式产生了很大的影响。

Are you still doing world-building with economics?

你还在用经济学来建设世界吗？

Is that a better, more fun, more complex world?

那是一个更好、更有趣、更复杂的世界吗？

Or you’ve given up world-building?

或者你已经放弃了世界建设？

Well, I tried in the book.

嗯，我在书上试过。

I had something called economic kingdom because, for me, thinking in games is really helpful for econ because there are so many moving pieces and everything is interconnected.

我有一个叫做经济王国的东西，因为对我来说，在游戏中思考对经济确实很有帮助，因为有很多移动的部分，而且一切都是相互关联的。

The first chapter of the book was my attempt to describe the economic kingdom, monetary policy castle, fiscal policy castle, inflation castle, labor market castle, so I still try to world-build when I can.

这本书的第一章是我试图描述经济王国、货币政策城堡、财政政策城堡、通货膨胀城堡、劳动力市场城堡，所以我仍然尽可能地尝试构建世界。

Any science fiction when you’re young, or not so much?

你年轻的时候有没有看过科幻小说？

More fantasy?

更多幻想？

Yes, more fantasy.

是的，更多的是幻想。

Science fiction was always a little too real for me.

科幻小说对我来说总是有点太真实了。

COWEN: Too real.

考恩：太真实了。

Yes.

是的。

More generally, why do you think young women are more likely to read fantasy than science fiction?

更一般地说，为什么你认为年轻女性比科幻小说更有可能阅读奇幻小说？

Maybe it’s because it is too real.

也许是因为太真实了。

I think younger women are more empathetic, and so maybe they’re able to pick up on the nuances of science fiction.

我认为年轻女性更有同理心，所以也许她们能够领会科幻小说的细微差别。

Or perhaps it’s just not the interest in aliens and in other worlds like that.

或者也许这并不是对外星人和其他类似世界的兴趣。

I think there’s more romanticism that happens for younger women versus men, and you get a lot of that in fantasy.

我认为年轻女性比男性更浪漫，而且在幻想中你会遇到很多这种情况。

Not romantic in the sense of love, but just beautiful places, and science fiction can tend to be more warfare.

不是爱情意义上的浪漫，而是美丽的地方，而科幻小说往往更多的是战争。

On trading in high school

关于高中时期的交易

Now fast-forward to age 16.

现在快进到 16 岁。

You’re in high school.

你在读高中。

All of a sudden, you’ve become an options trader.

突然之间，您就成为了一名期权交易者。

How did that happen?

这是怎么发生的？

My dad was options trading with a group called tastytrade, just self-taught, and I was really interested in it.

我父亲在一个名为 tastytrade 的组织中进行期权交易，他是自学成才的，我对此非常感兴趣。

I was like, “What is this?” I watched him do it, and he was like, “Do you want to try?” I self-taught myself.

我当时想，“这是什么？”我看着他这么做，他问：“你想尝试一下吗？”我自学。

It was fun because we had something to chat about, and then I did that for an entire summer as a summer job, and I was really bad at it, but I gave it a shot.

这很有趣，因为我们有一些东西可以聊天，然后我花了整个夏天作为暑期工作，我真的很不擅长，但我尝试了一下。

And I ended up writing a blog called Scanlon on Stocks, where I talked about my options trading experience.

最后我写了一个名为 Scanlon on Stocks 的博客，在那里我谈论了我的期权交易经验。

How efficient do you think the options market is?

您认为期权市场的效率如何？

The pricing strategies are interesting.

定价策略很有趣。

I don’t spend as much time on it, but I know that the volatility metrics are pretty useful, and I think that there are interesting things that you can do, like combinations of calls and puts on.

我没有花太多时间在这上面，但我知道波动率指标非常有用，而且我认为您可以做一些有趣的事情，例如看涨期权和看跌期权的组合。

You just have more optionality than buying a stock and hoping it goes up, but in terms of efficiency, I think it’s hard to make money in it.

你只是比买股票并希望它上涨有更多的选择，但就效率而言，我认为很难赚钱。

How is it you lost so much money trading a Brazilian ETF?

您为何在交易巴西 ETF 时损失了这么多钱？

Everything I did, I was pretty risk averse.

我所做的一切，我都非常厌恶风险。

I wanted to be neutral, and so, I put on this trade called an iron condor, which you do have protection against.

我想保持中立，所以我进行了一项名为“铁秃鹰”的交易，您确实可以防范这种交易。

But I just kept on making these trades where I was almost too .

但我只是继续进行这些交易，而我几乎也是如此。

.

。

.

。

I didn’t want to take on any risk, and if you don’t take on risk, you really can’t make a ton of money, but you can lose money.

我不想承担任何风险，如果你不承担风险，你真的赚不到很多钱，但你可能会赔钱。

And so that’s what happened to me.

这就是我身上发生的事情。

High school finishes up.

高中结束了。

You’re going to college, and you end up going to Western Kentucky University, right?

你要去上大学，最终去西肯塔基大学，对吗？

Why not go to an Ivy League school?

为什么不去常春藤联盟学校呢？

It was too expensive.

太贵了。

Too expensive, but you could have?

太贵了，但是你可以吗？

Yes, I had really good grades in high school.

是的，我高中时的成绩非常好。

I took all the AP classes, but what was really nice about Western is, I had a full ride, and I got paid to go there.

我参加了所有的 AP 课程，但西部大学真正好的一点是，我有完整的旅程，而且我得到了报酬去那里。

Then I ran cross country and track and field for the school.

然后我为学校跑了越野赛和田径赛。

There are just a lot of options there.

那里有很多选择。

I look back, and I loved my professors there.

我回想起来，我很喜欢那里的教授。

Do you think you’re better off for having gone to Western Kentucky?

您认为您去西肯塔基州会过得更好吗？

I think so.

我想是的。

I had a lot of opportunity there, so I ended up triple majoring, came in with a ton of credits.

我在那里有很多机会，所以我最终主修了三个专业，并获得了大量学分。

I did research and worked as a tutor, and I graduated as valedictorian, which was really cool.

我做了研究并担任导师，毕业时作为告别演说者，这真的很酷。

Ran there for a few years.

在那里跑了几年。

The professors were so supportive, really just a great learning environment.

教授们非常支持，真的是一个很棒的学习环境。

At a school like that, there’s more time and space for you to mold your own learning journey, and that’s what I did.

在这样的学校，你有更多的时间和空间来塑造自己的学习旅程，这就是我所做的。

I wrote a blog all throughout school, Scanlon on Stocks.

我在整个学校写了一个博客，《斯坎伦股票》。

COWEN: You had three jobs, you once said, right?

COWEN：你曾经说过，你做过三份工作，对吧？

What are the three?

这三个是什么？

I was a research assistant, I was a tutor, and then I helped out in the office at the school, and so it was busy.

我是一名研究助理，我是一名导师，然后我在学校的办公室帮忙，所以很忙。

What is it you did that you learned the most from?

你从哪件事中学到最多的事情？

Or what was the generative experience at Western Kentucky for you?

或者你在西肯塔基州的经历是什么？

Taking economics, or something else?

是学经济学还是其他什么？

Running?

跑步？

Running had its own life lessons, for sure, on how you balance time in sport, but for me, I just learned that you can design your own path.

当然，跑步有它自己的人生教训，关于如何在运动中平衡时间，但对我来说，我刚刚了解到你可以设计自己的道路。

When I got there, I didn’t know you could really major in finance.

当我到达那里时，我不知道你真的可以主修金融。

I was going to be an engineer.

我本来想成为一名工程师。

I didn’t really like the math classes, so then I was like, “Okay, I’ll be a doctor.”

我不太喜欢数学课，所以我就想，“好吧，我会成为一名医生。”

I didn’t really like that path either, and then I took an econ class with Dr. Brian Strow, and I was like, “Oh, this is really fascinating.” I didn’t know that you could study human dynamics and money and the philosophy of money.

我也不太喜欢这条路，然后我和布莱恩·斯特罗博士一起上了经济学课，我当时想，“哦，这真的很有趣。”我不知道你可以研究人类动力学、金钱以及金钱哲学。

I just started adding on classes, and I began picking up finance classes, began picking up data analytics classes.

我刚刚开始增加课程，我开始学习金融课程，开始学习数据分析课程。

Yes, I went to a state school as an undergrad — George Mason — and I’m actually very glad I did, but it’s unusual.

是的，我本科就读于公立学校 ——乔治梅森大学——我真的很高兴我这么做了，但这很不寻常。

I wanted to do a PhD.

我想攻读博士学位。

In economics or finance?

经济学还是金融学？

Both?

两个都？

Either one.

任一者。

I talked it over with my professors, and they were like, “You should get some experience with institutions before you do a PhD.

我和我的教授讨论过这个问题，他们说：“在攻读博士学位之前，你应该在机构中获得一些经验。

Spend some time working at a big firm, and then you can go back and get a PhD if that’s what you want to do.” So I graduated, and six months later the pandemic happened, and so everything just got derailed.

在一家大公司工作一段时间，然后如果你想的话，可以回去获得博士学位。”所以我毕业了，六个月后大流行发生了，所以一切都脱轨了。

Now you’ve just ruled it out.

现在你已经排除了它。

You don’t want to do it.

你不想这样做。

You’re too productive to go back to school.

你的工作效率太高，无法重返学校。

It’s something I think about a lot because I have had the opportunity to go and speak in classrooms like Harvard and MIT and Berkeley.

这是我经常思考的事情，因为我有机会去哈佛大学、麻省理工学院和伯克利分校等教室演讲。

And it’s one of my favorite things, just talking to students, because I had professors that invested so much in me.

与学生交谈是我最喜欢的事情之一，因为我的教授在我身上投入了很多。

When I got to school, I was this lump of a person.

当我到了学校的时候，我就是这样一个人。

I didn’t really know what I wanted, and I had a professor whose name is Dr. Chhachhi, who just invested a lot of time in me.

我真的不知道自己想要什么，我有一位教授，名叫 Chhachhi 博士，他在我身上投入了很多时间。

Dr. Lebedinsky, too.

列别丁斯基博士也是。

Given the unusual position you have in the world, how is it you think about how you build out?

鉴于您在世界上所处的不同寻常的地位，您如何看待自己的发展方式？

Like your small group of people.

就像你的一小群人一样。

In a way, you don’t have many peers your age, but the people you chat with on WhatsApp.

从某种程度上来说，你身边的同龄人并不多，只有那些在 WhatsApp 上与你聊天的人。

I don’t mean family, friends, but semi-professionals, some version of your peers.

我指的不是家人、朋友，而是半专业人士，即你的同龄人的某种版本。

How do you build that, or haven’t you?

你是如何构建它的，或者没有？

Or what does that look like for you?

或者这对你来说是什么样的？

I think I’m bad at that.

我想我在这方面做得不好。

I have a lot of people that I can ask questions.

我有很多人可以问问题。

Derek Thompson has been a big support over at The Atlantic; Conor Sen, also, at Bloomberg Opinion.

德里克·汤普森 (Derek Thompson) 一直是《大西洋月刊》的大力支持者。康纳·森 (Conor Sen) 也在彭博社观点 (Bloomberg Opinion) 发表文章。

He’s great.

他很棒。

He’s amazing.

他太棒了。

They’re both great.

他们都很棒。

They’re all great.

他们都很棒。

There are a lot of people that I can turn to and ask questions, but yes, in terms of peer group, it’s a little funny.

我可以向很多人提问，但是，就同龄人群体而言，这有点有趣。

There are some people like Josh Otten, who runs the YouTube channel Ordinary Things.

还有一些人，比如 Josh Otten，他负责 YouTube 频道 Ordinary Things 的运营。

We were talking about cameras today.

今天我们谈论的是相机。

It’s a weird intersection, where it’s economic theory, but then how do you deliver this to a wide audience?

这是一个奇怪的交叉点，其中涉及经济理论，但是如何将其传递给广大受众呢？

It’s a weird mix, yes.

是的，这是一个奇怪的组合。

Then, for a while you were selling cars.

然后，有一段时间你在卖汽车。

Do I have that right?

我有这个权利吗？

Yes.

是的。

What did you learn selling cars?

卖车学到了什么？

What did I earn?

我赚了什么？

No, what did you learn?

不，你学到了什么？

Oh, what did I learn?

哦，我学到了什么？

I learned a lot.

我学到了很多。

It was actually a really formative experience.

这实际上是一次非常有影响力的经历。

I didn’t realize how formative it was until I was talking about it a few months ago, because when you’re dealing with people buying cars, you’re with them during an incredibly vulnerable financial experience, and they hate you.

直到几个月前我谈论这件事时，我才意识到它对我的影响有多大，因为当你与购买汽车的人打交道时，你和他们一起经历了极其脆弱的财务经历，而他们讨厌你。

They’re like, “This person is trying to rip me off.”

他们就像是，“这个人想敲诈我。”

So, that’s your start as a TikToker, YouTuber, everything else, was selling cars.

所以，这就是你作为 TikToker、YouTuber 的开始，其他一切都是销售汽车。

I think so, yes, without even realizing it because I was so frustrated because the industry — it’s ridiculous.

我想是的，是的，甚至没有意识到这一点，因为我非常沮丧，因为这个行业  –  太荒谬了。

Everybody wants to make money.

每个人都想赚钱。

It’s a business.

这是一门生意。

For me, I looked at that, and I was like, “Wow, there’s so much opportunity to help people just understand this stuff, understand the world around them.” It definitely forayed into the content.

对我来说，我看着这个，我想，“哇，有这么多机会可以帮助人们理解这些东西，了解他们周围的世界。”它确实涉足了内容。

Were you good at selling cars?

你擅长卖车吗？

I was very good.

我很好。

You say you’re introverted.

你说你性格内向。

Now, how many TikTok videos do you think you have, not including any alts?

现在，您认为自己拥有多少个 TikTok 视频（不包括任何替代内容）？

I think over 500.

我认为超过500。

Over 500?

超过500？

Yes.

是的。

How many YouTubes?

有多少 YouTube？

Oh my gosh, probably over 150, 200.

天哪，可能超过150、200。

Substack, other things — how does that square with you being an introvert?

Substack，其他事情 — 这与你是一个内向的人有什么关系？

What’s the bigger model here?

这里更大的模型是什么？

I started making videos during the pandemic.

疫情期间我开始制作视频。

I was living alone in Los Angeles.

我独自一人住在洛杉矶。

I was just losing my mind in this 350-square-foot apartment.

我在这间 350 平方英尺的公寓里简直要发疯了。

Nobody knew when it was going to end.

没有人知道什么时候会结束。

I said, “The only way that I’m probably going to have connection is if I’m talking to people through a screen.” So, I just started talking about stuff.

我说：“我可能建立联系的唯一方式就是通过屏幕与人们交谈。”所以，我刚开始谈论一些事情。

I’ve always loved educating.

我一直热爱教育。

That was the point of the blog.

这就是博客的重点。

With videos, it’s actually quite ideal for an introvert because you’re literally in a room all alone talking to yourself.

对于内向的人来说，视频实际上非常理想，因为你实际上是在一个房间里独自一人自言自语。

Do you have a method where you produce perfect paragraphs spontaneously?

你有没有一种方法可以让你自发地写出完美的段落？

Or you have to rehearse it, or you do different takes?

或者你必须排练，或者你需要做不同的事情？

What’s the equilibrium here?

这里的平衡是什么？

It depends on what style I’m doing.

这取决于我在做什么风格。

I have a whiteboard that I’ll sometimes write on.

我有一块白板，有时我会在上面写字。

More and more, I’ve tried to just riff, have it be more stream of consciousness.

我越来越多地尝试即兴演奏，让它更多地成为意识流。

I don’t know if that works.

我不知道这是否有效。

What I normally would do is write out a script in my notes app and just read from that, and then pull —

我通常会做的是在我的笔记应用程序中编写一个脚本，然后从中读取，然后拉 —

You’re not looking at it when you’re talking, right?

你说话的时候不会看它，对吗？

No.

不。

You’re just saying things.

你只是说说而已。

You write it out, and then you put it aside.

你把它写下来，然后放在一边。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

Actually, the goal is to keep your eyes on the screen at all times, to be looking at the other person who’s watching it.

事实上，我们的目标是让你的眼睛始终盯着屏幕，看着正在观看的其他人。

Now you can just riff on anything.

现在你可以随心所欲地演奏任何东西。

You’re with a friend, and the friend says, “I want three minutes of Kyla on compound interest.” And you can just do it.

你和一个朋友在一起，朋友说：“我想要听凯拉三分钟的复利课。”你就可以做到。

Yes.

是的。

If somebody gets me talking about the Federal Reserve .

如果有人让我谈论美联储。

.

。

.

。

Within my friend group, there’s usually some countdown until I mention the Federal Reserve.

在我的朋友圈子里，通常会有一些倒计时，直到我提到美联储。

It’s something I really enjoy talking about.

这是我非常喜欢谈论的事情。

I don’t quite understand human obsession.

我不太理解人类的痴迷。

Why people get interested in things is something that’s very interesting to me.

为什么人们会对事物感兴趣，这对我来说非常有趣。

I don’t quite know why the economy is so fascinating to me personally, but I think it’s really important that people understand it.

我不太清楚为什么经济对我个人如此着迷，但我认为人们理解它非常重要。

As someone who would count as an outsider by most typical standards, compared to other commentators on the Fed, what is it you think that you might see or understand that others undervalue?

作为一个按照大多数典型标准被视为局外人的人，与美联储的其他评论员相比，您认为您可能会看到或理解其他人低估的是什么？

I think there’s definitely a young-person audience that I pull from.

我认为我的受众群体肯定是年轻人。

Every day I get hundreds of comments from people telling me their own personal experience, what they’re going through.

每天我都会收到数百条评论，人们告诉我他们自己的个人经历，他们正在经历什么。

My audience is younger, 20 to 35.

我的观众比较年轻，20 到 35 岁。

I think that is very useful.

我认为这非常有用。

It’s a more boots-on-the-ground approach.

这是一种更加脚踏实地的方法。

I would say that’s the primary thing.

我想说这是首要的事情。

Does being on social media so much drive you crazy?

频繁使用社交媒体会让你发疯吗？

Yes.

是的。

You know this.

你知道这一点。

You’re on there.

你就在那儿。

I don’t think it drives me crazy, actually.

事实上，我不认为这会让我发疯。

Really?

真的吗？

No, I don’t think so.

不，我不这么认为。

Maybe it’s not for me to judge.

或许这不该由我来评判。

Do you separate yourself from it?

你将自己与它分开吗？

Yes.

是的。

You post something, and you’re like, “Okay.”

你发布了一些东西，然后你会说：“好吧。”

I don’t follow much politics.

我不太关注政治。

We’re here in early July.

我们七月初到这里。

I’ve actually been following politics the last week.

事实上，上周我一直在关注政治。

Yes, it’s hard not to.

是的，很难不这样做。

That’s unusual.

这很不寻常。

I’ll just look the other way and read about China or India or something.

我会另眼相看，阅读有关中国或印度之类的内容。

That’s politics of a different kind, right?

这是另一种政治，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

For you, how do you separate yourself from it?

对你来说，你如何将自己从中分离出来？

I think I’m a very good person at compartmentalizing.

我认为我是一个非常擅长划分事物的人。

But you think it does drive you crazy.

但你认为这确实会让你发疯。

I think so because a lot of the comments are personal.

我想是的，因为很多评论都是个人的。

They see you as a nonobjective commentator, even if you’re talking about data.

他们将您视为不客观的评论员，即使您谈论的是数据。

For me, it’s been difficult the past few months because you’re talking about various data sources, what’s going on with inflation, what’s going on with the labor market.

对我来说，过去几个月很困难，因为你谈论的是各种数据源，通货膨胀的情况，劳动力市场的情况。

But because we’re in a post-truth society, everybody is like, “You’re lying.” “You’re a liar.” “You’re horrible for that.” I’ve worked on that because you’re just a figment of the audience’s imagination.

但因为我们处在一个后真相社会，每个人都会说，“你在撒谎。” “你是个骗子。” “你这么做太可怕了。”我之所以致力于这个，是因为你只是观众想象中的虚构人物。

Yes, in a way, they’re making a deal with you.

是的，在某种程度上，他们正在与你达成协议。

They promise to listen and give you numbers, and you promise to let them abuse you.

他们答应倾听并给你数字，而你答应让他们虐待你。

That’s the exchange.

这就是交换。

That’s what they want.

这就是他们想要的。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

It’s the right to selectively abuse.

这是选择性滥用的权利。

Something to project on.

需要投影的东西。

It’s never about you.

这从来都与你无关。

My ego gets horribly in the way.

我的自尊心严重阻碍了我。

Ideally, I’d remove all ego and realize it’s not about me, but I am working on that still.

理想情况下，我会消除所有的自我并意识到这与我无关，但我仍在努力。

Do you think by now you have a thick skin?

你以为你现在脸皮厚了吗？

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

So, you’ve worked on it, and you’ve succeeded.

所以，你已经努力了，而且你已经成功了。

I think success is an end state here where I don’t know if I’ll ever reach it.

我认为成功是一种最终状态，我不知道我是否能达到它。

For me, it’s more of a process than I’d like.

对我来说，这更像是一个过程，超出了我的预期。

I still take a lot of stuff very personally because I just take it personally when it feels like the data isn’t resonating, or if I’m not explaining something properly, or if I haven’t done a good job at conveying the idea of the video.

我仍然非常个人化地看待很多事情，因为当我感觉数据没有引起共鸣，或者如果我没有正确解释某些事情，或者如果我没有很好地传达视频的想法时，我就会把它视为个人化的。

I think that’s the hardest part.

我认为这是最难的部分。

It’s like, how could I have done that better?

就像，我怎样才能做得更好？

Luckily, I get another chance to try tomorrow, but I would say it’s disheartening sometimes.

幸运的是，明天我还有一次尝试的机会，但我想说有时会令人沮丧。

Putting aside your own work, what kind of economics do you think young people are learning from TikTok?

抛开你自己的工作不谈，你认为年轻人从 TikTok 中学到了什么样的经济学？

Concerning.

有关。

Is it conspiratorial?

难道是阴谋？

Is it leaning in some particular direction?

它是否偏向某个特定方向？

I would say it’s definitely conspiratorial.

我想说这绝对是阴谋。

There’s a lot of desire to pin inflation onto companies, which I don’t know if that’s the best thing to do.

人们很想将通货膨胀归咎于公司，但我不知道这是否是最好的做法。

There’s a lot of desire to have a scapegoat.

人们非常渴望找到替罪羊。

I think a lot of people are frustrated with their economic situation, and so they look at TikTok videos, and somebody is telling them that, yes, Blackrock is conspiring against them, and that’s very soothing.

我认为很多人对自己的经济状况感到沮丧，所以他们看 TikTok 视频，有人告诉他们，是的，贝莱德正在密谋反对他们，这非常令人安慰。

I think that’s where we have ended up with TikTok and econ.

我认为这就是我们最终推出 TikTok 和 econ 的地方。

If you’re on social media so much, and they’ve driven you crazy, why is your own analysis so free from conspiratorial thinking?

如果你经常使用社交媒体，它们已经让你发疯，为什么你自己的分析如此没有阴谋思维？

What’s the antidote you have taken?

你服用的解药是什么？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I try to read as many possible sources as I can.

我尝试尽可能多地阅读可能的来源。

If I’m not talking on a podcast or doing a speaking event or in a meeting, I’m usually reading.

如果我没有在播客、演讲活动或会议上发言，我通常会阅读。

I just try to read as much as I can.

我只是尝试尽可能多地阅读。

I have the opportunity to have one-on-one interviews with the deputy secretary of the Treasury.

我有机会与财政部副部长进行一对一的采访。

I just interviewed Austan Goolsbee of the Chicago Fed.

我刚刚采访了芝加哥联储的奥斯坦·古尔斯比。

I feel like having that one-on-one talk helps me realize, “There’s real stuff going on here.”

我觉得一对一的谈话可以帮助我意识到，“这里正在发生真实的事情。”

Are there any conspiracy theories you believe in?

你相信什么阴谋论吗？

Because I’ve asked myself this question.

因为我问过自己这个问题。

There’s very few, but there are a few.

虽然很少，但也有几个。

What do you believe in?

你相信什么？

I think JFK probably was killed by more than one gunman, but not for sure.

我认为肯尼迪可能被不止一名枪手杀害，但不确定。

I think there was some concerted effort to adjust the timing of the arrival of the vaccinations before the election.

我认为在选举前做出了一些协调一致的努力来调整疫苗接种的时间。

I think more sports events are fixed than we realize.

我认为固定的体育赛事比我们想象的要多。

Those would be the three I’m inclined to believe in.

这就是我倾向于相信的三个。

It’s hard for me to think of others.

我很难想到别人。

Do you think they’re fixed because of gambling?

你认为他们是因为赌博而被修复的吗？

Yes, just gambling.

是的，只是赌博。

It’s often the referees more than the players — or team coaches or someone who knows about an injury.

通常是裁判而不是球员、球队教练或了解伤病情况的人。

There’s now betting on how many rebounds did you pull down?

现在有人赌你抢下多少个篮板？

Some of it’s even the players.

其中一些甚至是球员。

There is this one guy in Toronto — he’s been banned from the NBA.

多伦多有一个人 ——他被禁止进入 NBA。

I suspect that’s tip of the iceberg.

我怀疑这只是冰山一角。

But those are my only conspiracy theories.

但这些是我唯一的阴谋论。

I feel impoverished.

我感觉自己很穷。

No, those are more than I have.

不，这些比我拥有的还多。

I don’t know if I’m even wise enough to know what conspiracy theories I believe in because I tend to take everything and be like, “Okay, that makes most sense to me.” I think that the thing with conspiracy theories is there are oftentimes more incentives in place than we know, which goes to the point of JFK and what that could have meant.

我不知道我是否足够聪明，知道我相信什么阴谋论，因为我倾向于接受一切，然后说：“好吧，这对我来说最有意义。”我认为阴谋论的问题在于，往往存在比我们知道的更多的激励措施，这正是肯尼迪事件的重点以及这可能意味着什么。

But yes, I don’t have any direct ones that I’m like, “Yes, that probably happened.”

但是，是的，我没有任何直接的想法，“是的，这可能发生了。”

How is TikTok changing, putting aside possible ban, but just the thing itself?

抛开可能的禁令不谈，仅就事情本身而言，TikTok 正在发生怎样的变化？

There are a couple of things that are happening.

有几件事正在发生。

People aren’t on there as much.

那里的人不多。

I think Instagram Reels has surpassed it in popularity.

我认为 Instagram Reels 的受欢迎程度已经超过了它。

Mark Zuckerberg just continues his domination path.

马克·扎克伯格继续他的统治之路。

I think, also, the algorithm is maybe not as good as it used to be.

我还认为，该算法可能不如以前那么好。

Perhaps it’s because not as many people are scrolling, but there’s more and more focus on TikTok Shop.

也许是因为刷屏的人不多，但人们越来越多地关注 TikTok Shop。

In general terms, how do you think Reels is different?

总的来说，您认为 Reels 有何不同？

Is it more wholesome, or .

它更健康，还是。

.

。

.

。

?

？

Well, I only scroll once a week, and that’s usually just to get a sense of what’s happening.

嗯，我每周只滚动一次，通常只是为了了解正在发生的事情。

This is on Reels?

这是在卷轴上吗？

Or you mean on TikTok?

或者你是说在 TikTok 上？

Oh, on both.

哦，两者都有。

Yes.

是的。

I try not to actually use social media other than Twitter.

我尽量不实际使用 Twitter 以外的社交媒体。

I’m a Twitter power user or Twitter power scroller, I suppose.

我想我是 Twitter 的高级用户或 Twitter 的高级滚动者。

Yes, Reels is a little bit different because they have curated it to be more wholesome.

是的，Reels 有点不同，因为他们精心策划了它，使其更加健康。

You’re not constantly being advertised to, at least not as directly and as gimmicky as TikTok.

你不会经常被打广告，至少不会像 TikTok 那样直接和花哨。

I think that there’s more focus on the authentic creator.

我认为人们更关注真实的创作者。

Say five or ten years from now, what do you think Reels will look like?

假设五年或十年后，您认为 Reels 会是什么样子？

Or what will it do, or how will it differ?

或者它会做什么，或者会有什么不同？

I think it’ll be much more engaging.

我认为这会更有吸引力。

I think there’ll be AR VR.

我认为会有 AR VR。

I know Mark Zuckerberg is quite interested, or used to be, in the Metaverse.

我知道马克·扎克伯格对元宇宙非常感兴趣，或者曾经非常感兴趣。

I’m sure AI will have some sort of involvement with that, whether it’s AI creators or something else.

我确信人工智能会以某种方式参与其中，无论是人工智能创造者还是其他什么。

I think that the scroll model will have to shift.

我认为滚动模型必须改变。

I’m not sure what it’ll shift to, but I think that sort of motion is going to not be so enticing soon.

我不确定它会转向什么，但我认为这种运动很快不会那么有吸引力。

But yes, I think it’ll definitely be much more interactive, and the user will be able to direct it much more than in the algorithm, if that makes sense.

但是，是的，我认为它肯定会更具交互性，并且用户将能够比算法更多地指导它，如果这有意义的话。

Yes.

是的。

As someone who’s been and still is an avid reader, if you think about teens or people in their early twenties, what’s the future of print culture and reading?

作为一个曾经并且仍然是狂热读者的人，如果你想想青少年或二十岁出头的人，印刷文化和阅读的未来是什么？

Does that worry you, or you think it’s fine?

这让你担心吗，或者你认为这很好吗？

Or TikTok is just selling books, and it’s wonderful?

还是TikTok只是卖书，而且很精彩？

Or it’s falling to pieces?

或者它正在崩溃？

What’s your take?

你怎么看？

What do you think?

你怎么认为？

From the data I see, print culture is declining, unless you count the internet, which is not what I would mean by print culture.

从我看到的数据来看，印刷文化正在衰落，除非你算上互联网，这不是我所说的印刷文化。

If you can be on a flight, say, sit in business class, the most elite group of people you could imagine — like pick an elite route — and everyone’s looking at a screen, and I’m the only person reading, and that worries me.

如果你可以乘坐航班，比如说，坐在商务舱，你可以想象到最精英的一群人 ——就像选择一条精英航线—— 每个人都在看着屏幕，而我是唯一一个在阅读的人，这让我很担心。

Do you think they’re reading on their screens, or do you —

你认为他们是在屏幕上阅读，还是你 ——

No, they’re watching movies or videos.

不，他们正在看电影或视频。

Now, book sales are fine.

现在，图书销售情况良好。

I think romance right now is the most sharply growing category.

我认为浪漫现在是增长最快的类别。

Colleen Hoover.

科琳·胡佛。

Yes.

是的。

Do you —

你 ——

That may be good culturally, but I’m not sure it’s good for print culture as we understand it.

这在文化上可能是好事，但我不确定这对我们所理解的印刷文化是否有利。

No, it’s a big deal if you sell at your advance.

不，如果你提前卖出，那就很了不起了。

I think 99 percent of authors don’t.

我认为 99% 的作者都没有。

It’s an alarming statistic.

这是一个令人震惊的统计数据。

The whole business model of print is a little bit funky in terms of the publishers.

对于出版商来说，整个印刷业的商业模式有点古怪。

I just published a book, so I’m hoping that people go and buy it.

我刚刚出版了一本书，所以我希望人们去购买它。

Again, In This Economy?

再说一遍，在这种经济环境下？

How Money & Markets Really Work.

货币与市场的真正运作方式。

Very good book.

非常好的书。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

For me — and I feel like it’s probably the same for you — books, I try to read as much as I can, especially print.

对我来说——我觉得对你来说可能也是一样——书籍，我会尽可能多地阅读，尤其是印刷版。

I just feel there’s something so beautiful about having a paper experience and being able to write on the page and annotate it.

我只是觉得拥有纸质体验并能够在纸上书写和注释是一件非常美妙的事情。

The more and more people I talk to say, “Oh, I don’t read,” or “I need to get back into reading.” That’s just my anecdotal experience.

越来越多的人跟我交谈时说，“哦，我不读书”，或者“我需要重新开始读书”。这只是我的轶事经历。

You look at the numbers too, and it’s —

你也看一下数字，那就是 ——

The numbers don’t show what’s happening.

这些数字并不能显示正在发生的事情。

I’m unsure, but what is read?

我不确定，但是读什么？

I also have noticed the last 10 or 15 years, I don’t see many big nonfiction books that have had a lot of impact.

我还注意到，在过去的 10 或 15 年里，我没有看到很多产生很大影响的大型非小说类书籍。

Yes.

是的。

I guess it’s like Ray Dalio.

我想这就像雷·达里奥。

It may be just luck of the draw, and it will come back, but it feels the ’80s, ’90s, maybe early ’00s, you had more of that.

这可能只是运气好，而且它会回来，但感觉 80 年代、90 年代，也许 00 年代初，你有更多这样的经历。

Books like Jared Diamond, whether or not you agree with it, but everyone would read it, talk about it.

像贾里德戴蒙德这样的书，无论你是否同意，但每个人都会读它，谈论它。

Maybe Piketty was the last one.

也许皮凯蒂是最后一位。

Yes, sure.

是的，当然。

I don’t see that much of it.

我没看到那么多。

Well, do you think it’s escapism?

好吧，你认为这是逃避现实吗？

People just don’t want to deal with nonfiction because that’s reality, and it’s easier to escape from it?

人们只是不想处理非小说类作品，因为那是现实，而且更容易逃避现实？

Or maybe the low-hanging fruit has been plucked.

或者也许唾手可得的果实已经被采摘了。

There’s a good popular science book on everything now.

现在有一本关于一切的优秀科普书。

Everything’s been covered.

一切都被覆盖了。

COWEN: Plants are intelligent, and here’s how geology works and okay, I’ve checked all my boxes.

COWEN：植物是聪明的，这就是地质学的运作方式，好吧，我已经检查了所有的方框。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Yes, I guess so.

是的，我想是的。

I love nonfiction.

我喜欢非小说类作品。

I read quite a bit of it.

我读了相当多的内容。

Paved Paradise — I just finished that, which is a book about parking lots and cars and car culture.

Paved Paradise — 我刚刚读完，这是一本关于停车场、汽车和汽车文化的书。

It’s very, very good.

这非常非常好。

There’s something appealing about fiction, but nonfiction — it’s definitely a tough space.

小说有一些吸引人的地方，但非小说 ——这绝对是一个艰难的领域。

Psychology of Money, Morgan Housel — that did very well.

摩根·豪塞尔（Morgan Housel）的《金钱心理学》——做得很好。

Yes.

是的。

What shapes what you choose to read?

什么决定了你选择阅读的内容？

Do you go to BookTok, or friends tell you, or you visit bookstores or anything?

你会去 BookTok，或者朋友告诉你，或者你会去书店或者其他什么地方吗？

Yes, it’s usually through visiting bookstores, and then I normally have a topic of the week that I’m pretty interested in.

是的，通常是通过参观书店，然后我通常会找到一个我非常感兴趣的本周主题。

It’ll be dominoes, and I’ll read the history of dominoes, or I read a book about cults.

它将是多米诺骨牌，我会读多米诺骨牌的历史，或者我读一本关于邪教的书。

It’s just whatever my mind wanders to.

这就是我的想法。

There’s always a book about it.

总有一本关于它的书。

Yes, I just follow that.

是的，我只是遵循这一点。

I ride my bike a lot, and so I just listen to audiobooks and podcasts on the bike.

我经常骑自行车，所以我只是在自行车上听有声读物和播客。

The best book in an area you don’t care about is very, very good, and probably you should read it.

在你不关心的领域里最好的书是非常非常好的，也许你应该读一读。

Even if you don’t care about, like, cults, right?

即使你不关心邪教之类的，对吧？

Yes.

是的。

Oh, sure.

哦，当然。

What was the book on cults?

关于邪教的书是什么？

I’m trying to remember.

我正在努力回忆。

It was actually called Cultish by, is it Amanda Montell?

它实际上被称为“Cultish”，是阿曼达·蒙特尔吗？

Have you heard of it?

你听说过吗？

I don’t think so.

我不这么认为。

Okay.

好的。

I might have said her last name wrong, but it was good.

我可能把她的姓说错了，但这很好。

It was talking about cults of the past and then cults of the present — CorePower, CrossFit.

它谈论的是过去的崇拜和现在的崇拜——CorePower、CrossFit。

Just what happens when people get sucked into a cult.

当人们陷入邪教时会发生什么。

I think that’s quite interesting because, with people trying to figure out religion, I think there’s more tendency to have cult-like tendencies.

我认为这很有趣，因为随着人们试图弄清楚宗教，我认为有更多的倾向有类似邪教的倾向。

Yes.

是的。

We have more cults in my opinion.

我认为我们有更多的邪教。

You think so?

你这么认为吗？

There’s the AI doomer cult, right?

有人工智能末日邪教，对吧？

Yes.

是的。

There’s Accelerationism cult.

有加速主义崇拜。

They’re both cults.

他们都是邪教。

You might agree with one or the other, but they function as cults.

你可能同意其中之一，但它们的作用就像邪教一样。

Yes.

是的。

Do you think people are seeking that out, or do they just stumble into it?

你认为人们是在寻找这个，还是只是偶然发现的？

I think they’re seeking it out.

我认为他们正在寻找答案。

It’s maybe a more volatile age, and people want to latch onto something organized.

这可能是一个更加动荡的时代，人们想要抓住一些有组织的东西。

Religion is weaker, so they look somewhere else, maybe adjacent to religion but not quite formally religious.

宗教较弱，所以他们把目光投向其他地方，可能与宗教相邻，但不是很正式的宗教。

Do you think that’s just human behaviors, that we always need something to latch onto?

你认为这只是人类的行为，我们总是需要一些东西来抓住吗？

We’re always going to need to seek out the capital-T truth?

我们总是需要寻找大写的真相？

I think when social trust is lower, which we’ll get to as a topic, people want to do this more because they don’t trust in the authorities as much.

我认为当社会信任度较低时（我们将作为一个话题来讨论），人们会更愿意这样做，因为他们不太信任当局。

They believe in all these conspiracies, right?

他们相信所有这些阴谋，对吧？

Yes.

是的。

Why do you think people turn towards conspiracies?

你认为人们为什么会转向阴谋论？

Is it just because they don’t trust institutions?

仅仅是因为他们不信任机构吗？

I think there are two things at work.

我认为有两件事在起作用。

One is we’ve actually had a number of bad events.

一是我们实际上发生了很多糟糕的事件。

Financial crisis and pandemics and 9/11 would be three big, obvious ones.

金融危机、流行病和 9/11 是三个明显的重大事件。

Arguably, there are more, but those three right there is a lot.

可以说，还有更多，但那三个就很多了。

That sets off a negative mood.

这会引发负面情绪。

Do you think there’s a human tendency towards negativity in that sense?

从这个意义上说，你认为人类存在消极倾向吗？

Yes, absolutely, especially when you have those few bad events that clearly are just very bad, right?

是的，绝对的，尤其是当你发生了一些明显非常糟糕的坏事件时，对吧？

Yes, but people don’t view them as outliers.

是的，但人们并不认为他们是异常值。

They view them as constant —

他们认为它们是不变的 —

There’s recency bias.

存在新近偏差。

If you were born in year whatever, and the three big events of your life were not like the fall of communism, but 9/11, great financial crisis, and the pandemic, you’re like, “Whoa, what kind of world is this?”

如果你出生在任何年份，并且你生命中的三大事件不是共产主义的垮台，而是9/11、金融危机和大流行，你会想，“哇，这是什么样的世界？”

Yes.

是的。

I just turned 27.

我刚满27岁。

I was born in ’97, so born into the dot-com bubble.

我出生于 97 年，出生在互联网泡沫中。

That’s you.

那就是你。

Yes.

是的。

Yes, and my cohort, which is why I think there’s a trend towards nihilism.

是的，还有我的同伴，这就是为什么我认为存在虚无主义趋势。

Yes.

是的。

But you’re optimistic?

但你乐观吗？

Or not pessimistic, at least.

或者至少不悲观。

Oh, I try to be optimistic as much as I can.

哦，我尽量保持乐观。

I try to always see the good in situations.

我总是努力看到事情好的一面。

There’s a quote from James Baldwin that I really like, where the essential ideas — you can look to all the books of the past and realize that somebody else has gone through exactly what you are going through before.

我非常喜欢詹姆斯·鲍德温（James Baldwin）的一句话，其中的基本思想 — 你可以翻阅过去的所有书籍，并意识到其他人已经经历过你以前所经历的事情。

History is a cycle, and so, I just take heart in that.

历史是一个循环，所以我对此感到振奋。

I believe in humans, and I believe we always figure it out, even if we suck momentarily.

我相信人类，我相信我们总能解决问题，即使我们暂时很糟糕。

That’s how I try to remain optimistic.

这就是我努力保持乐观的方式。

You still live in western Kentucky, yes?

你还住在肯塔基州西部，是吗？

I bounce around — Colorado, California.

我在 — 科罗拉多州、加利福尼亚州四处奔波。

I travel quite a bit right now.

我现在经常出差。

Does being in western Kentucky make you more or less optimistic when you’re there?

当你身处肯塔基州西部时，你的乐观情绪会变得更加乐观还是更加不乐观？

Kentucky is a very beautiful state, but it was hard for me to be there sometimes.

肯塔基州是一个非常美丽的州，但有时我很难去那里。

There’s a lot that the state could figure out, and it has taken steps towards figuring out, but people struggle with their health.

国家可以解决很多问题，并且已经采取措施解决问题，但人们却在健康问题上挣扎。

The opioid epidemic hit it pretty hard.

阿片类药物的流行对其造成了沉重打击。

There’s just not a lot of money for things that deserve to have money, like healthcare.

对于那些值得花钱的事情，比如医疗保健，却没有很多钱。

It’s just a state that has gotten the short end of the stick for a very long time.

这只是一个长期处于不利地位的国家。

What’s your ideal place?

你理想的地方是什么？

To live?

为了生活？

Yes.

是的。

For me personally?

对于我个人来说？

Yes.

是的。

Oh gosh.

哦天哪。

Constraints removed.

限制被移除。

You can afford the rent, whatever, the freedom to build.

你可以负担得起租金，无论如何，还有建造的自由。

I really love the mountains and the woods.

我真的很喜欢山和树林。

I love riding my bike, so anywhere where there are trails and where I can ride on the road.

我喜欢骑自行车，所以只要有小路并且可以在公路上骑的地方就可以。

It’s a simple life.

这是一种简单的生活。

Books nearby, a nice coffee shop.

附近有书店，还有一家不错的咖啡店。

That’s all I really need.

这就是我真正需要的。

Is celebrity dead?

名人死了吗？

Oh, yes.

哦是的。

And do you need celebrity?

你需要名人吗？

You said it’s all I need, but in fact, you have however many TikTok and YouTube videos.

你说这就是我所需要的，但事实上，你有多少 TikTok 和 YouTube 视频。

Yes, I know.

是的，我知道。

There’s always a little bit of hypocrisy sometimes, I suppose.

我想，有时总会有一点虚伪。

I think celebrity is dead.

我认为名人已经死了。

I put that down because I was curious what are your thoughts on that as well.

我把它写下来是因为我很好奇你对此有何想法。

I think of celebrity as having peaked maybe in the 1980s.

我认为名人可能在 20 世纪 80 年代达到顶峰。

You have Eddie Murphy, you have Schwarzenegger, you have Madonna, Michael Jackson, and it was a thing.

你有艾迪·墨菲，你有施瓦辛格，你有麦当娜，迈克尔·杰克逊，这是一件事。

Then that starts to collapse and break down, and we recreated this very different thing, the influencer.

然后它开始崩溃和崩溃，我们重新创造了这个非常不同的东西，即影响者。

That’s you, right?

那是你，对吧？

I don’t love the word.

我不喜欢这个词。

This is just probably me getting up on a high horse, but I feel like I talk about the economy.

这可能只是我的傲慢，但我觉得我在谈论经济。

I don’t really talk about my life.

我并不真正谈论我的生活。

I guess if I’m influencing people on economic theory, perhaps.

我想也许我在经济理论方面影响了人们。

I consider an influencer somebody more who is essentially a marketing ploy in disguise, and I don’t consider myself that entirely.

我认为影响者本质上是一种变相的营销策略，但我并不完全认为自己是这样的。

But a lot of that, people use as a channel for relating to you as a person, right?

但其中很多是人们用来作为与你作为一个人建立联系的渠道，对吧？

If I hold a public event, it’s striking to me, not just that it’s predominantly male, but it’s males within a certain age range, something like 20 to 35, who are somehow looking for something.

如果我举办一场公共活动，我会感到惊讶，不仅因为它主要是男性，而且是特定年龄范围内的男性，比如 20 到 35 岁，他们不知何故在寻找一些东西。

They are smart, and I maybe give them some smart content they want.

他们很聪明，我也许会给他们一些他们想要的聪明内容。

But it’s also connected to — there are different models of how a person can be or can be curious or can be productive, and they’re very interested in that.

但这也与“关于一个人如何能够保持好奇心或如何变得富有成效有不同的模型有关，他们对此非常感兴趣。”

Productivity.

生产率。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Maybe.

或许。

I haven’t really thought about that.

我还没有真正考虑过这一点。

I guess so.

大概吧。

I’m not sure what people would find in me.

我不确定人们会在我身上发现什么。

If you hold a public event, who shows up?

如果您举办公共活动，谁会出现？

A book signing.

签名售书。

It’s what you just described.

这就是你刚才所描述的。

Yes, the same group of people.

是的，是同一群人。

Same group of people.

同一群人。

Yes, pretty much.

是的，差不多。

They’re looking for something?

他们在寻找什么东西？

Yes.

是的。

What do they think they’ll find from you, through you, with you?

他们认为他们会从你身上、通过你、和你一起找到什么？

I get approached after events most of the time, and people often just thank me for simplifying economics.

大多数时候，人们会在事情发生后联系我，人们常常只是感谢我简化了经济学。

I think that’s the main thing.

我认为这是最重要的。

The most recent conversation I had was this person who felt like his worries weren’t being recognized as a young person.

我最近一次谈话的对象是这个人，他觉得自己的担忧没有被视为年轻人。

That’s what I try to spend a lot of time doing.

这就是我尝试花费大量时间做的事情。

I talk a lot about the housing crisis, talk a lot about what it’s like to move up the “ladder.” Perhaps it’s that.

我谈论了很多关于住房危机的话题，谈论了很多关于向上爬“阶梯”的感觉。也许就是这样。

How good or bad do you think economics education is today?

您认为当今的经济学教育有多好或多坏？

I think there are a lot of really great resources.

我认为有很多非常好的资源。

You all do a great job with that.

你们都在这方面做得很好。

Thank you.

谢谢。

I don’t know if we need to start in high school, require an econ class.

我不知道我们是否需要从高中开始，是否需要上经济课。

I think even the concept of supply and demand sometimes can be confounding to people.

我认为，即使是供给和需求的概念有时也会让人们感到困惑。

I would say that there are plenty of resources, and I don’t know if people just don’t want to have access to it, but there’s maybe not a lot of interest.

我想说的是，有很多资源，我不知道人们是否只是不想获得它，但可能没有太多兴趣。

Have you found that?

你发现了吗？

My intuitive sense — not based on data — is economics education was better in the 1990s, in the sense that often what really changes people’s minds are events, and people were more sensible then and less conspiratorial.

我的直觉——“不是基于数据”——是 20 世纪 90 年代的经济学教育更好，因为真正改变人们思想的往往是事件，那时的人们更加明智，更少阴谋论。

There are way more resources now, obviously —

显然现在资源多了 ——

Yes, tons.

是的，吨。

— but I’m not sure it’s improved the actual educational outcomes.

— 但我不确定它是否改善了实际的教育成果。

If anything, it seems to have gone backwards.

如果说有什么不同的话，那就是它似乎已经倒退了。

Do you think that’s across the board?

你认为这是全面的吗？

We have way too much information and not enough knowledge?

我们拥有太多的信息而缺乏足够的知识？

No, I think the events have gone a bad way, and that makes people more negative in ways that are not useful.

不，我认为这些事件已经朝着糟糕的方向发展，这让人们以无用的方式变得更加消极。

Because we haven’t had a moon landing or something exciting?

因为我们还没有登月或其他令人兴奋的事情？

Yes.

是的。

Now, we may have those in biomedicine, with AI, but even those — they seem to freak people out a bit.

现在，我们可能在生物医学和人工智能方面有这些技术，但即使是这些技术——它们似乎也让人们感到有点害怕。

People are really freaked by AI.

人们真的被人工智能吓坏了。

I would say, on average, more people are freaked out than excited.

我想说的是，平均而言，惊慌失措的人多于兴奋的人。

I think that’s right.

我认为这是对的。

I’m not sure it’s going to serve that function, even if you think it should.

我不确定它是否会发挥该功能，即使您认为它应该发挥作用。

Do you think the hesitancy to education, then, is people are like, “It’s just not exciting to me,” and because there’s no event to base exciting things off of?

那么，您认为人们对教育的犹豫是否是因为“这对我来说并不令人兴奋”，并且因为没有事件可以作为令人兴奋的事情的基础？

I think it’s too exciting, but in the negative direction.

我认为这太令人兴奋了，但朝负面方向发展。

Sure.

当然。

Like, oh, someone stole the election, or so many different versions of whatever, some mistaken belief about COVID and very negative.

就像，哦，有人窃取了选举，或者有很多不同版本的东西，一些关于新冠病毒的错误信念，非常消极。

If people have negative feelings, I think their actual thoughts become worse, even though sometimes the negative feelings are justified.

如果人们有负面情绪，我认为他们的实际想法会变得更糟，尽管有时负面情绪是有道理的。

What role do you think the media play in all of that?

您认为媒体在这一切中扮演什么角色？

Do you think it’s perpetuated a bad cycle?

您认为这是一个恶性循环吗？

There’s some negative bias in media, which is hard to overcome.

媒体存在一些难以克服的负面偏见。

One of the things I’ve liked best about your work is, you never fall for that, always trying to be objective and analytic.

我最喜欢你工作的一件事是，你从不上当，总是努力保持客观和分析。

So, there’s some negative bias.

所以，存在一些负面偏见。

Sure.

当然。

Not in all other countries, to be clear, but here.

需要明确的是，不是在所有其他国家，而是在这里。

Then, I think that adds on to these other negative events, and people become more emotional and just have worse ideas.

然后，我认为这会加剧这些其他负面事件，人们会变得更加情绪化，并产生更糟糕的想法。

The worse ideas —

更糟糕的想法 —

About economics.

关于经济学。

Sure.

当然。

About many other things too, but certainly about economics.

还涉及许多其他事情，但当然涉及经济学。

Just what’s the right economic path, and maybe not seeing economic policy as a whole.

只是什么是正确的经济道路，也许没有将经济政策视为一个整体。

The 1990s was very Pollyanna-ish.

20 世纪 90 年代非常盲目乐观。

Mistakenly so, I think, in retrospect, but I think it was good for people’s ideas to be more optimistic.

回想起来，我认为这是错误的，但我认为人们的想法更加乐观是有好处的。

The gains from trade were more easily grasped.

贸易的收益更容易被掌握。

Do you think that’s because of good public education?

您认为这是因为良好的公共教育吗？

A very good education system, but I think they’ve had so much recent success.

一个非常好的教育体系，但我认为他们最近取得了很大的成功。

It’s fraying now, but overall, there’s still enough positive outlook that it steers them in better directions.

现在情况正在恶化，但总体而言，仍然有足够的积极前景，可以引导他们走向更好的方向。

Because there’s such a negative outlook here, of course, the direction is going to be negative.

因为这里的前景如此负面，所以方向当然是负面的。

I worry the negative outlook is spreading to many other places, including Singapore, actually.

我担心负面前景正在蔓延到许多其他地方，实际上包括新加坡。

Oh, so the US is exporting negativity?

哦，那么美国是在输出负面情绪吗？

Possibly.

可能吧。

We’ll see.

我们会看到的。

If you go to different countries, like you go to Poland — things feel very positive.

如果你去不同的国家，比如去波兰——事情感觉非常积极。

Well, they’ve had 4 percent growth for, now, over 30 years.

嗯，30 多年来，他们的增长率一直是 4%。

Of course, it’ll feel pretty good.

当然，感觉会很不错。

India, people seem quite optimistic, but it’s harder to think of places like that than it used to be.

印度，人们看起来相当乐观，但比以前更难想象这样的地方了。

Do you think it’s the worries of, you said, the US is losing status to China?

您认为这是美国的地位输给中国的担忧吗？

To China, but just a general sense of, we’re not kings of the world anymore.

对于中国来说，但只是一般意义上的，我们不再是世界之王了。

Of course, we never were, but now it just seems more obvious that our face is being rubbed in the mud, and that breeds some amount of resentment.

当然，我们从来没有这样，但现在看起来更明显的是，我们的脸被泥巴摩擦了，这滋生了一定程度的怨恨。

Yes, towards policymakers.

是的，针对政策制定者。

And just everything.

还有一切。

It may not be policymakers.

可能不是政策制定者。

It could be elites, or people think somehow Bill Gates or someone is pulling all the strings.

可能是精英们，或者人们认为比尔·盖茨或某人在幕后操纵。

Often the policymakers get off easy, and it’s some set of figures who have actually nothing to do with the matter who get blamed.

政策制定者往往会轻松逃脱，而受到指责的是一些实际上与此事无关的人物。

Do you think there’s a way out of it?

你认为有办法解决吗？

Historically, you see societies finding ways out, but if we knew the formula, I think we’d be out of it already, and we’re not out of it.

从历史上看，你会看到社会在寻找出路，但如果我们知道这个公式，我认为我们已经摆脱了它，而且我们还没有摆脱它。

I know that I don’t know the formula.

我知道我不知道这个公式。

I try to do my small bit, but no, there’s no formula, I think.

我尝试尽我所能，但我认为不，没有公式。

Some of it’s luck, better dynamics, maybe people who are more analytic making more of an effort, but that might be small relative to just events.

其中一些是运气，更好的动力，也许是那些更具分析能力的人付出了更多的努力，但这相对于事件来说可能很小。

It’s interesting, too, because you see people wanting to escape, I think.

这也很有趣，因为我认为你会看到人们想要逃跑。

The people that normally might have contributed to a shifting towards positivity are instead retreating into subgroups.

通常情况下可能有助于转向积极性的人们却退回到了小群体中。

Everything’s fragmenting.

一切都在支离破碎。

Yes.

是的。

It might make it harder to dig out of the various ditches, but you also hope, well, there are all these fragments.

这可能会让从各种沟渠中挖出来变得更加困难，但你也希望，好吧，有所有这些碎片。

Some of them will turn positive, and maybe one of the fragments becomes a spark.

其中一些会变成积极的，也许其中一个碎片会成为火花。

I hope so.

我希望如此。

That’s speculative.

这是推测性的。

It hasn’t happened yet, but that’s my hope.

虽然还没有发生，但这就是我的希望。

I hope so too.

我也希望如此。

I think right, now, a lot of people feel pretty bleak, more so than ever.

我认为，现在很多人都感到非常黯淡，比以往任何时候都更加黯淡。

Yes.

是的。

What would you do to improve mainstream media?

您会采取哪些措施来改善主流媒体？

You’re in charge, you own a TV station, a major newspaper.

你是负责人，你拥有一家电视台、一份主要报纸。

What would you do?

你会怎么办？

We were just talking about negativity in media, and there’s a chart that I like that shows the sentiment in media.

我们刚刚讨论了媒体中的消极情绪，我喜欢一张图表，它显示了媒体中的情绪。

Headlines have gotten extraordinarily negative.

头条新闻变得异常负面。

Everything has a story.

一切都有故事。

It’s a business model.

这是一种商业模式。

I don’t know if this plan would make a lot of money, but I think there’s a lot of need for foundational resources on media sites, which a lot of them do have access to.

我不知道这个计划是否会赚很多钱，但我认为媒体网站上对基础资源的需求很大，而且很多媒体网站都可以访问这些资源。

I think no paywall, which is money —

我认为没有付费墙，那就是钱 —

Hard to manage.

很难管理。

— problem number one.

——第一个问题。

But you have no paywall.

但你没有付费专区。

I have no paywall.

我没有付费墙。

And I think just really objective stories — I really like what Semafor does, where they tell a story, and then they say where the reporter’s bias might be.

我认为只有真正客观的故事 —— 我真的很喜欢 Semafor 所做的事情，他们讲一个故事，然后他们说记者的偏见可能在哪里。

I think that’s just useful.

我认为这很有用。

I think you have to parcel out media stories as much as you can, be like, “Here are the facts.

我认为你必须尽可能多地整理媒体报道，就像，“这是事实。

Here’s where potential bias might be.” Because that’s what people .

这就是潜在偏见可能存在的地方。”因为人们就是这样。

.

。

.

。

at least right now, this idea is very responsive to the moment.

至少目前来看，这个想法非常符合当下的情况。

If people want to use Twitter — now X — better, what’s your advice for them?

如果人们想使用 Twitter ——现在 X —— 更好，你对他们有什么建议？

Because you do it.

因为你这么做了。

I do it.

我做。

We do something some people don’t manage.

我们做一些别人做不到的事情。

They quit, they leave.

他们放弃了，他们离开了。

They’re disgusted, whatever.

不管怎样，他们很厌恶。

Do you block?

你阻止吗？

No, I’ve blocked like one or two people.

不，我已经屏蔽了一两个人。

Yes.

是的。

Do you mute?

你静音吗？

Sometimes.

有时。

The people I mute are not bad.

我静音的人都不错。

They’re just too prolific.

他们太多产了。

Just saying too much.

简直说太多了。

Yes.

是的。

I love Twitter.

我喜欢推特。

I think that I wouldn’t be here if it weren’t for Twitter, and I’m very aware of that just because so many smart people are on there.

我想，如果没有 Twitter，我就不会站在这里，而且我非常清楚这一点，因为那里有很多聪明人。

That’s where I got my start.

这就是我开始的地方。

For me, I know who’s really good to listen to, like Employ America, great think tank.

对我来说，我知道谁的意见真正值得倾听，比如雇佣美国，伟大的智库。

The people at Bloomberg are always tweeting great stuff, and I know what not to be paying attention to.

彭博社的人总是在推特上发布精彩的内容，我知道什么是不应该关注的。

There’s a component of media literacy to it.

其中有媒体素养的一部分。

You have to scroll by the viral video and get to the data source.

您必须滚动浏览病毒视频并获取数据源。

I think that’s the way to use Twitter.

我认为这就是使用 Twitter 的方式。

I like the animal videos, too.

我也喜欢动物视频。

You watch them?

你看他们吗？

There was one today, like two big bears wrestling with each other.

今天有一次，就像两只大熊在互相摔跤。

I watched the whole 30 seconds.

我整整看了30秒。

Oh, what were they doing?

哦，他们在做什么？

Fighting.

斗争。

Oh.

哦。

You don’t get to see the end.

你看不到结局。

Oh.

哦。

Which I suspect was not decisive.

我怀疑这并不是决定性的。

Oh, no.

哦，不。

But they’re pretty rough with each other.

但他们彼此之间非常粗暴。

Were they black bears?

他们是黑熊吗？

I think so, yes.

我想是的，是的。

Big black bears

大黑熊

Yes.

是的。

I saw a bear up close, and it was one of the scariest moments of my life.

我近距离看到一只熊，这是我一生中最可怕的时刻之一。

This was in Colorado?

这是在科罗拉多州吗？

It was in Colorado, yes.

是的，那是在科罗拉多州。

We were on a hike and my dog .

我们和我的狗一起徒步旅行。

.

。

.

。

I have a dog named Moo, and she froze up, and I was like, “Okay.

我有一只名叫 Moo 的狗，她愣住了，我说：“好吧。

What’s going on?” I look over, and there’s a bear three feet away from us.

发生什么事了？”我抬头一看，距离我们三英尺远有一只熊。

Very scary.

非常可怕。

Oh.

哦。

High housing costs.

住房成本高。

How much of it do you think is NIMBYism, and how much is it it’s just worth more than it used to be to live near the right people?

你认为其中有多少是邻避主义？与过去相比，住在合适的人身边更有价值吗？

Oh, are those not the same thing?

哦，这两个不是同一个东西吗？

Well, they’re interrelated, but let’s say there’s no NIMBY.

嗯，它们是相互关联的，但假设不存在邻避。

Like Seoul, South Korea — they’ve built an enormous amount.

就像韩国首尔一样——他们建造了大量的建筑。

It’s a very vertical city.

这是一个非常垂直的城市。

It has like a third of the country’s GDP, but it’s still very expensive to live there.

它的GDP约占该国的三分之一，但居住在那里仍然非常昂贵。

You can’t say they’re too NIMBY, but it’s worth a lot to be in Seoul.

你不能说他们太邻避，但在首尔还是很值得的。

Busan is important, but there’s nothing really close to being in the economic, financial, and cultural center.

釜山很重要，但没有什么比成为经济、金融和文化中心更接近的了。

At least in Korea, it seems it’s about co-location and not about NIMBY.

至少在韩国，似乎是关于“同地办公”而不是“邻避”。

But if it’s Oakland, California, I suspect it’s mostly about NIMBY.

但如果是加利福尼亚州奥克兰，我怀疑主要是关于邻避问题。

NIMBY Berkeley.

邻避伯克利。

Yes, I would say definitely in some areas, it’s about NIMBY.

是的，我肯定会说在某些领域，这与邻避有关。

It’s people really trying to protect the value of their home and the value of what they perceive their surroundings to be, and they don’t want any change ever.

人们确实在努力保护自己的房屋的价值以及他们所认为的周围环境的价值，并且他们不希望发生任何改变。

I think some components of it are definitely people being resistant to any idea of progress.

我认为其中的某些部分肯定是人们抵制任何进步的想法。

Then I think a lot of it, too, is just we haven’t built enough.

我认为很大程度上也是因为我们建设得还不够。

If someone with real money came to you and said, “Should I invest more in real estate in very high-quality locations?” what would you tell them?

如果有真钱的人来找你说：“我应该在优质地段的房地产上投入更多资金吗？”你会告诉他们什么？

How should they think about that?

他们应该如何思考这个问题？

I guess so.

大概吧。

I think 70 percent of homes in New York were recently bought up with cash.

我认为纽约 70% 的房屋最近都是用现金购买的。

So, people are definitely still investing in those areas.

因此，人们肯定仍在对这些领域进行投资。

This is a dynamic that I’m quite interested in because you saw, during the pandemic, people moving away from urban centers and moving out to the suburbs or rural areas to have more space.

我对这种动态非常感兴趣，因为你看到，在大流行期间，人们离开城市中心，搬到郊区或农村地区以获得更多空间。

I don’t know if, with transit and cars and stuff, will the outskirts become more desirable?

我不知道，有了交通、汽车之类的东西，郊区会不会变得更令人向往呢？

I think you can look at Texas and see that.

我想你可以看看德克萨斯州就能看到这一点。

It just depends on what highly desirable area that they’re talking about.

这仅取决于他们所谈论的非常理想的领域。

You don’t think the YIMBYs will win and crash the price of real estate?

您认为 YIMBY 家族不会获胜并压垮房地产价格吗？

I think you can look at Austin, Texas, and see that the YIMBYs did win there, and the housing prices are going down.

我想你可以看看德克萨斯州的奥斯汀，你会发现 YIMBY 确实在那里获胜，而且房价正在下降。

I think they were down 12 percent as of December 2023.

我认为截至 2023 年 12 月，它们下降了 12%。

So, I think in some places they’ll win, but then in some places, like New York, for example, the resistance is just going to be far too high.

所以，我认为在某些地方他们会获胜，但在某些地方，例如纽约，阻力会太大。

It’ll just depend on what city it’s in, but I think you’re seeing a lot of progress in certain places — progress meaning building more.

这仅取决于它所在的城市，但我认为你在某些地方看到了很多进步 —— 进步意味着建设更多。

Yes.

是的。

Allison Schrager had a recent column for Bloomberg.

艾莉森·施拉格最近为彭博社撰写了一篇专栏文章。

You may have seen it.

你可能已经看到了。

She argued today’s young investors take on too much risk.

她认为当今的年轻投资者承担了太多的风险。

Oh!

哦！

Do you agree?

你同意？

Was she referring to crypto?

她指的是加密货币吗？

Some of it crypto, but not only.

其中一些是加密的，但不仅仅是加密。

Meme stocks would be another simple example.

模因股票是另一个简单的例子。

They can be risky.

它们可能有风险。

Yes.

是的。

Do you think that they do?

你认为他们这样做吗？

I don’t think I have enough data.

我认为我没有足够的数据。

I suspect they’re in a position where they can afford it, but that they’re also not optimizing.

我怀疑他们能够负担得起，但他们也没有进行优化。

That would be my intuitive response.

这就是我的直觉反应。

Conor Sen has a theory on this, where he thinks that because millennials and Gen Z can’t afford homes, they’re gambling on crypto and meme stocks, and I think I can see that.

Conor Sen 对此有一个理论，他认为由于千禧一代和 Z 世代买不起房，他们正在押注加密货币和 meme 股票，我想我可以看到这一点。

One of the comments I get most often is people asking me how they can make the most money as quickly as possible.

我最常收到的评论之一是人们问我如何才能尽快赚到最多的钱。

And you have a simple answer, right?

你有一个简单的答案，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

I’m like, “Oh, man, yes.

我想，“哦，伙计，是的。

That’s why I’m making these videos, because I know the answer.” I think that you see a total disconnect in the market right now between any sense of fundamentals.

这就是我制作这些视频的原因，因为我知道答案。”我认为你现在看到市场上任何基本面意识之间都完全脱节。

The Magnificent Seven are up 8 percent on the week, 8 percent on the past week, perhaps, on basically no news.

七巨头本周上涨 8%，上周上涨 8%，也许是因为基本没有消息。

The stock market is driven by hype cycles right now, more so than ever, I believe.

我相信，股市目前是由炒作周期驱动的，而且比以往任何时候都更是如此。

If you remove the top five companies, the AI companies, Nvidia included, the market is actually down.

如果你除去排名前五的公司，包括英伟达在内的人工智能公司，市场实际上是在下跌。

Is that a hype cycle, or is it the reality that AI will displace a lot of traditional economic activity and newer companies will gain more?

这是一个炒作周期，还是人工智能将取代许多传统经济活动、新公司将获得更多收益的现实？

I know that you’re a big proponent of AI.

我知道您是人工智能的大力支持者。

Did you see the Sequoia memo, where they were talking about how much would have to be produced in order to —

你有没有看到红杉的备忘录，他们在其中讨论了需要生产多少才能 ——

Yes, absolutely.

是的，绝对是。

What did you think about that?

你对此有何感想？

Oh, I think it’s all going to crash, like with the railroads and the dot-com bubble, but that it will come back and then make a fortune.

哦，我认为一切都会崩溃，就像铁路和互联网泡沫一样，但它会卷土重来，然后发大财。

Oh, wow.

哦，哇。

You think right now, it’s too hyped up, it’ll swing back down?

你认为现在它太炒作了，它会回落吗？

It depends.

这取决于。

There’s publicly traded stuff and inside stuff, and it may be quite different answers, but all the major technological revolutions I’ve seen in history — they have bubbles, and the bubbles pop, and a lot of people lose a lot of money.

有公开交易的东西和内部的东西，这可能是完全不同的答案，但我在历史上看到的所有重大技术革命  - 它们都有泡沫，泡沫破裂，很多人损失了很多钱。

I would be surprised if this time it were different, but I would be surprised if it just stayed down low and never came back.

如果这次有所不同，我会感到惊讶，但如果它只是保持低调并且再也没有回来，我会感到惊讶。

Pets.com is gone, but the internet is with us.

Pets.com 消失了，但互联网与我们同在。

Yes, that’s true.

是的，确实如此。

Part of the Sequoia memo was like, “We don’t know how some of this application will be applied.

红杉备忘录的一部分是这样的：“我们不知道这个应用程序的某些部分将如何应用。

We don’t know where AI will be actually useful.” Do you think that the example of pets.com with the internet bubble — there are useful parts of AI, and the un-useful parts, the pets.com of AI, will get washed out in the cycle?

我们不知道人工智能将在哪里真正发挥作用。”你认为pets.com与互联网泡沫的例子 ——人工智能有有用的部分，而无用的部分，即AI的pets.com，会在这个循环中被淘汰吗？

It may be more dramatic than that.

事情可能比这更戏剧化。

One possible model is, the AI services become commoditized, so the people who paid for all the fixed costs of training and the like — they are, so to speak, the suckers.

一种可能的模式是，人工智能服务变得商品化，因此那些支付所有培训等固定成本的人——可以说，他们是傻瓜。

They’ll never get that money back.

他们永远拿不回这笔钱。

We’ll have really cheap AI soon for almost everyone, and most of the gains will go to users and consumers.

我们很快就会为几乎所有人提供真正便宜的人工智能，而大部分收益将惠及用户和消费者。

Oh, wow.

哦，哇。

I’m not sure that’s the case, but that would be my default model, and the investors just lost a lot of money.

我不确定情况是否如此，但这将是我的默认模型，而投资者只是损失了很多钱。

But you see the same with vaccines.

但疫苗也是如此。

Most vaccines don’t make money; they may lose money.

大多数疫苗不赚钱；他们可能会赔钱。

They’re great for the world overall.

它们对整个世界来说都是伟大的。

Maybe we’re just going to keep on repeating that pattern.

也许我们只会继续重复这种模式。

Yes.

是的。

There was a really big Bloomberg article that got a lot of pushback, talking about the energy usage of AI.

彭博社有一篇非常重要的文章，讨论了人工智能的能源使用，但遭到了很多反对。

Do you think that’ll be .

你认为会是这样吗？

.

。

.

。

Sam Altman was even like, “We have to have nuclear eventually.” What are your thoughts on AI blowing out grids?

萨姆·奥尔特曼甚至说，“我们最终必须拥有核能。”您对人工智能摧毁电网有何看法？

Well, I would be long energy — the hard part of energy, not the commoditized part, but the parts of the infrastructure that you can’t just build en masse ad infinitum.

好吧，我会做多能源——能源的困难部分，不是商品化的部分，而是基础设施中你不能无限期地大规模建设的部分。

I think not only because of AI, just data centers, the demand for that will go up a lot.

我认为不仅是因为人工智能，还有数据中心，对此的需求将会大幅增加。

The US will be slow with nuclear, but countries that are non-NIMBY on energy have a very big geopolitical comparative advantage, and we just don’t quite see it yet.

美国在核问题上会进展缓慢，但在能源方面不邻避的国家拥有非常大的地缘政治比较优势，只是我们还没有完全看到这一点。

I think that’s an underrated feature of today’s world.

我认为这是当今世界一个被低估的特征。

Energy.

活力。

Energy.

活力。

Like UAE, which has shown a lot of willingness to build a lot more, and they have a lot of sun there.

比如阿联酋，它表现出了建设更多的意愿，而且那里有很多阳光。

I think they’ll do very well for that reason.

我认为他们会因为这个原因做得很好。

Yes, I think energy is this thing that we don’t really think about because we’re so used to just clicking on the light switch and having it work.

是的，我认为能源是我们没有真正考虑过的事情，因为我们已经习惯了只需点击电灯开关就可以让它工作。

We’ve done such a good job at hiding it from people.

我们在向人们隐瞒这一点方面做得非常好。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

Yes.

是的。

So, they just don’t think about it.

所以，他们只是不去想这个问题。

It was a big thing in the ’70s, and then it more or less went away, and it got pretty cheap, and I just think it’s going to come back.

它在 70 年代是一件大事，然后它或多或少消失了，而且变得相当便宜，我只是认为它会回来。

Or it is back already.

或者它已经回来了。

I think so, too.

我也这么认为。

I think that might be bigger than .

我认为这可能比。

.

。

.

。

When you were talking about AI, I think the hype cycle will die down as well.

当你谈论人工智能时，我认为炒作周期也会消失。

I think energy will be the point of interest when that is in a downturn.

我认为，当经济低迷时，能源将成为人们关注的焦点。

Yes, especially for places that don’t have simple solutions like hydroelectric or solar.

是的，特别是对于没有水力发电或太阳能等简单解决方案的地方。

The cost of that has gone down tremendously.

其成本已大大下降。

Battery power — the cost of that is down quite a bit.

电池电量 ——成本大幅下降。

Solar has gone down quite a bit.

太阳能已经下降了不少。

Yes, but you still need some backup for solar.

是的，但你仍然需要一些太阳能备用。

Even if batteries are good, the notion that there could be a big volcanic explosion, and the sun is somewhat blocked for a year and a half, and you just don’t have power — I think there will and should be backups of some kind.

即使电池很好，考虑到可能会发生一场大火山爆发，太阳会被遮挡一年半，而你就是没有电力 —— 我认为将会而且应该有某种形式的备用电源。

Probably those should be nuclear, but again, it will be up for grabs, and there’ll be a lot of demands that are hard to satisfy.

也许这些应该是核的，但同样，它将是可供争夺的，并且会有很多难以满足的要求。

Yes, I think nuclear.

是的，我认为是核能。

Do you think that’s the way that we have to go?

你认为这是我们必须走的路吗？

I don’t know about have to.

我不知道是否必须这样做。

I have friends who are utopian geothermalists.

我有一些朋友是乌托邦式的地热学家。

I don’t feel I can evaluate that.

我觉得我无法评价这一点。

They feel that a lot of places — not just, say, parts of the American West — can access geothermal power just by making the technology better.

他们认为，很多地方——“不仅仅是美国西部的部分地区”——只需改进技术就能获得地热能。

I just can’t tell if they’re right or not, but if they’re right, that’s great.

我只是无法判断他们是否正确，但如果他们是对的，那就太好了。

If they’re not right, we’re back to nuclear, but voters don’t like nuclear in most countries.

如果他们不正确，我们就会回到核能，但大多数国家的选民不喜欢核能。

That’s just because of associations?

仅仅是因为关联吗？

They don’t like having it near their homes — the associations.

他们不喜欢把它放在家附近——协会附近。

French voters seem okay with it, Swedish voters.

法国选民似乎对此表示同意，瑞典选民则对此表示同意。

Not everywhere, but NIMBY is strong, and NIMBY versus nuclear — NIMBY has always won.

不是到处都有，但邻避很强大，邻避与核武的对抗——邻避总是获胜。

Do you think that voters oftentimes vote against their own self-interests?

您是否认为选民经常投票反对自己的利益？

Yes.

是的。

That’s what voting is for.

这就是投票的目的。

Feel good about yourself but make a bad decision.

自我感觉良好，但做出了错误的决定。

Has that always been the case?

一直都是这样吗？

It’s selective.

这是有选择性的。

I think the overall composition of the federal budget — it’s too much to old people and not enough to young people, and that is because old people vote more.

我认为联邦预算的总体构成——对老年人来说太多，而对年轻人来说不够，这是因为老年人投票更多。

You wouldn’t actually say it’s bad for the old people.

你实际上不会说这对老年人不好。

No, they get more money, and then they’re going to die.

不，他们得到更多的钱，然后他们就会死。

It’s okay for the old people, but still, there’s a lot of expressive voting, and people wanting to vote for causes just to send a message.

对于老年人来说这没什么问题，但是仍然有很多表达性投票，人们想要投票只是为了传递信息。

But when it’s done en masse, it screws up the system.

但当它集体完成时，就会搞砸系统。

Why do you think that’s happened?

您认为为什么会发生这种情况？

Why has everything become to the tail ends of the extremes?

为什么一切都走向了极端？

Well, if you mean France, I think people are genuinely upset about what they consider too much immigration, and there’s not been a real policy response.

好吧，如果你指的是法国，我认为人们真的对他们认为的移民过多感到不安，而且还没有真正的政策回应。

But I also think the French have a historical tradition of being especially expressive politically: action in the streets and strikes and more.

但我也认为法国人有一个在政治上尤其具有表现力的历史传统：街头行动和罢工等等。

Americans have their own version of that.

美国人对此有自己的版本。

Maybe that would be listening to people on TikTok or something.

也许就是在 TikTok 上听人们的声音或者其他什么。

But France, you get out there and you do something and you really protest, but I think they end up with a less functional politics for that reason.

但是法国，你走出去，做一些事情，你真的会抗议，但我认为他们最终会因为这个原因而导致政治功能减弱。

A lot of it is self-destructive.

其中很多都是自我毁灭的。

We don’t have to get into it, but do you think the US is trending toward that?

我们不必深究，但你认为美国有这样的趋势吗？

I think we’re trending toward greater passivity, where all kinds of outrageous things happen and no one protests, which to someone my age is quite extreme and unusual.

我认为我们正趋于更加被动，各种令人愤慨的事情发生而没有人抗议，这对于我这个年纪的人来说是相当极端和不寻常的。

And they just operate on social media, and maybe that absorbs the chaos, but you get less error correction over time.

他们只是在社交媒体上运作，也许这会吸收混乱，但随着时间的推移，你得到的错误纠正会越来越少。

Because people are passive.

因为人是被动的。

People are very passive.

人是非常被动的。

They become more passive, but they’re given an outlet where they feel like they’re doing something.

他们变得更加被动，但他们有一个发泄的渠道，让他们感觉自己在做某事。

Yes, like sharing a story on social media.

是的，就像在社交媒体上分享故事一样。

Yes.

是的。

In the aggregate, the stories wash each other out so you don’t have impact, even though your story might have caught some attention.

总的来说，这些故事相互抵消，所以即使你的故事可能引起了一些关注，你也不会产生影响。

But both sides do it, and then you’re left with not much protest.

但双方都这么做了，然后就没有太多抗议了。

Yes, and the passive acceptance of whatever the result is going to be.

是的，并且被动接受无论结果如何。

Without taking sides politically, there have been a variety of candidates selected in different places, where 30, 40 years ago, you would have thought there were going to be big protests, and mostly there weren’t.

如果没有政治上的偏袒，不同地方会选出各种各样的候选人，而在 30、40 年前，你会认为那里会发生大规模抗议活动，但大多数情况下都没有。

Yes.

是的。

I don’t think there’s been much of any.

我认为没有太多。

There were protests during 2020 on BLM, but yes, it doesn’t seem like .

2020 年期间曾发生过针对 BLM 的抗议活动，但看起来并非如此。

.

。

.

。

That’s something I’ve thought about.

这是我思考过的事情。

There would be, why don’t I protest certain stuff, right?

会有，我为什么不抗议某些事情，对吧？

Yes, you do in a way, but very indirectly.

是的，你以某种方式做到了，但非常间接。

Yes, it’s sharing a story.

是的，它正在分享一个故事。

It was really interesting watching the French election because it mirrors, in a sense, what’s happening here, especially with the breaking apart of the left here.

观看法国大选真的很有趣，因为它在某种意义上反映了这里正在发生的事情，尤其是这里左翼的分裂。

People just seem to want to check out.

人们似乎只是想看看。

Maybe the depression, the passivity — it’s all part of some common negativistic picture.

也许是抑郁、消极——这些都是一些常见的消极情绪的一部分。

Do you think it is because of demographics?

您认为这是因为人口统计吗？

They’re like, “Oh, the older people are taking over.” For younger people, for example — they’re like, “I’m just not going to do anything, because it’s just so far out of my control.”

他们就像，“哦，老年人正在接管。”例如，对于年轻人来说，他们会说“我不会做任何事情，因为这远远超出了我的控制范围。”

I don’t know.

我不知道。

There are still democratic incentives in the system.

制度中仍然存在民主激励。

I think people think in generational terms, maybe more than is warranted by the data.

我认为人们从代际角度思考的问题可能超出了数据所保证的范围。

I’ve had this discussion with Peter Thiel.

我和 Peter Thiel 进行过讨论。

He talks about boomers and millennials and Generation X and Z.

他谈到了婴儿潮一代、千禧一代以及 X 一代和 Z 一代。

To me, it’s a continuum, and it’s the events at any point in time that matter a bit more, but I think people disagree on these questions.

对我来说，这是一个连续体，更重要的是任何时间点发生的事件，但我认为人们在这些问题上存在分歧。

I don’t think it’s settled.

我认为事情还没有解决。

In terms of?

按照？

How different different generations are, whether it’s a continuum or you have these fixed start and stop points.

不同的世代有多么不同，无论是连续体还是有固定的起点和终点。

Well, I think it’s in the cult-y thing that we were talking about earlier, where it’s like people want to belong to a certain generation.

嗯，我认为这是我们之前讨论的邪教事物，就像人们想要属于某一代人一样。

It’s easy to put yourself in a box that way.

这样很容易把自己困在一个盒子里。

Yes, I’m never convinced that’s the right way to look at it.

是的，我从来不相信这是正确的看待它的方式。

I don’t think so.

我不这么认为。

I think it creates more problems than answers.

我认为它带来的问题多于答案。

Yes.

是的。

There’s some solution that involves a lot of talking across generations.

有一些解决方案需要跨代人进行大量讨论。

Some people have this view, “Oh, the boomers, they all die off, and then you get something very different.” It would surprise me if that were the mechanism.

有些人有这样的观点，“哦，婴儿潮一代，他们都死了，然后你就会得到一些非常不同的东西。”如果这就是机制的话，我会感到惊讶。

Well, I think you’ll just step into the boomers’ shoes.

好吧，我想你会站在婴儿潮一代的立场上。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

Meet the new boss and meet the old boss.

认识新老板，认识旧老板。

You see that with Gen X, I think, to a certain extent, just accepting elements of that status quo.

你看，我认为，对于 X 一代来说，在某种程度上，只是接受现状的元素。

Yes.

是的。

Rilke.

里尔克.

I brought my copy of Rilke.

我带来了里尔克的那本。

Why is Rilke important to you?

为什么里尔克对你很重要？

Oh, I’ve been working through my own copy.

哦，我一直在研究我自己的副本。

I think that there are a lot of life lessons in what is being discussed in the poems.

我认为诗中讨论的内容有很多人生教训。

I’m not a scholar in any sense of the word.

我不是任何意义上的学者。

I’m just somebody trying to understand things, but there is a passage that I sent you about, “Poems are not emotions or experiences.” I think that that is just what he is able to convey.

我只是一个试图理解事物的人，但我给你发了一段话，“诗歌不是情感或经历。”我认为这正是他能够传达的信息。

Everything is an experience in the way that he writes, and it’s really quite beautiful.

在他的笔下，一切都是一种体验，真的很美。

What else do you like in poetry?

你还喜欢什么诗歌？

Like what do I look for?

比如我在寻找什么？

What other poets, or however you figure it out?

还有哪些诗人，或者不管你怎么想？

Oh, I have a poem page in my —

哦，我的 里有一页诗——

Oh, I know.

哦，我知道。

Yes.

是的。

What else?

还有什么？

What’s the meta algorithm?

元算法是什么？

I try to find answers, yes.

我试着寻找答案，是的。

I don’t know if it works or not.

我不知道它是否有效。

I think oftentimes, I probably absorb more of the world than I should.

我常常想，我可能吸收了比应有的更多的世界知识。

I don’t have great boundaries up against emotions, so I turn to poetry, especially with the economy — it’s so personal for people.

我对情感没有太大的界限，所以我转向诗歌，尤其是与经济有关的——它对人们来说是如此个人化。

I feel oftentimes you can explain economic theory through the lens of poetry, and so I look for the world-encompassing poems that can help me think about the economy, if that makes sense.

我经常觉得你可以通过诗歌的视角来解释经济理论，所以我寻找包罗万象的诗歌，它们可以帮助我思考经济，如果这有意义的话。

How do you think that gives you a different perspective on economics?

您认为这如何让您对经济学有不同的看法？

What I like to say is that it gives me a more human-centric lens.

我想说的是，它给了我一个更加以人为本的视角。

I try to think of people first as much as I can, even though it’s sometimes difficult.

我尝试尽可能先为人着想，尽管有时这很困难。

The way that the economy is composed in my head is of people, and I try to see poetry in all of it.

在我的脑海中，经济是由人组成的，我试图在这一切中看到诗意。

It sounds very woo, but —

听起来很吸引人，但是 ——

Yes.

是的。

If you’re giving advice to young people who will be investing — and they have long time horizons; they’re going to live a lot more years — is there any advice other than just buy, hold, and diversify?

如果你给那些想要投资的年轻人提供建议，并且他们有长远的眼光；他们会活得更久 —— 除了买入、持有和多元化之外，还有什么建议吗？

It’s the thing that’s worked historically — buy, hold, and diversify.

这是历史上一直有效的做法——“买入、持有和多元化”。

What I do with my own portfolio is buy the S&P as much as I can, have the cues, which is the tech companies.

我对自己的投资组合所做的就是尽可能多地购买标准普尔指数，抓住线索，即科技公司。

Then, if I purchase certain things, if I buy a certain pair of shoes from Nike or go to a restaurant or fly United, I’ll own some of those stocks, too, so I try to build a portfolio that reflects me as a consumer.

然后，如果我购买某些东西，如果我从耐克购买一双特定的鞋子或去一家餐馆或乘坐美联航的航班，我也会拥有其中一些股票，所以我尝试建立一个反映我作为消费者的投资组合。

I don’t know if that’s true or not.

我不知道这是真的还是假的。

You feel in touch with the companies and how they’re doing.

您会感觉与这些公司及其运作方式有联系。

Yes, and then I think if my money’s going toward them, I should probably put some money toward them as a stock.

是的，然后我想，如果我的钱流向他们，我可能应该把一些钱作为股票投入他们。

I try to not look at my portfolio as much as I can.

我尽量不去查看我的投资组合。

I bought up some Treasuries when rates were super high.

当利率超高时，我购买了一些国债。

It’s just about paying attention, diversifying.

这只是关注，多样化。

There’s the saying, time in the market beats timing the market, which I think is what you’re saying with the younger people having a long time horizon.

有句话说，“在市场上的时间胜过对市场时机的把握”，我认为这就是你对拥有长远视野的年轻人所说的意思。

I think it’s really just about starting.

我认为这真的只是开始。

Do you use AI for your work at all?

您在工作中使用人工智能吗？

Yes, I ask it questions.

是的，我问它问题。

I use Claude quite a bit for research.

我经常使用克劳德进行研究。

I’m a one-person team, so it’s nice to have something to talk to.

我是一个单人团队，所以很高兴有人可以交谈。

I use Claude quite a bit, and then I use ChatGPT, mostly for fact-checking, grammar, and how to pronounce words.

我经常使用 Claude，然后使用 ChatGPT，主要用于事实检查、语法和单词发音。

I have a lot of trouble saying certain words.

我很难说出某些词。

Youglish is very good for that, but I’ve also found that ChatGPT can be helpful with saying it in context of a sentence.

Youglish 对此非常有用，但我还发现 ChatGPT 可以帮助您在句子的上下文中说出它。

How often do you think about the Roman Empire?

您多久会想到罗马帝国？

That meme.

那个模因。

That meme.

那个模因。

Honestly, more so over the last couple weeks — because of what’s going on in the US — than usual.

老实说，过去几周的情况比平时更严重——因为美国正在发生的事情。

I think that they’re quite fascinating, but I think I think more about the Great Depression than I do the Roman Empire.

我认为它们非常令人着迷，但我认为我对大萧条的思考比对罗马帝国的思考更多。

Why the Great Depression?

为什么会出现大萧条？

I’ve ended up reading a lot of books about it recently.

我最近读了很多关于它的书。

Trust is a book that just won the Pulitzer a few years ago, and that was the fictionalization of somebody who greatly profited from the Great Depression.

《信任》是一本几年前刚刚获得普利策奖的书，那是一个从大萧条中获利颇丰的人的虚构作品。

I’ve just read a lot of books about that era.

我刚刚读了很多关于那个时代的书。

I think the robber barons, who are around that era as well, are very fascinating: Andrew Carnegie, Vanderbilt.

我认为那个时代的强盗大亨也非常迷人：安德鲁·卡内基、范德比尔特。

I just think that that’s an interesting time in human existence.

我只是认为那是人类存在的一个有趣的时期。

I like to think about it because it was a little bit closer than the Roman Empire.

我喜欢思考它，因为它比罗马帝国更近一些。

Some of it’s a period where this negative sentiment spirals out of control, of course.

当然，在某些时期，这种负面情绪会失控。

Yes, absolutely.

是的，绝对是。

I think people were totally distraught after the Great Depression.

我认为大萧条之后人们完全心烦意乱。

There was no hope on the horizon, but we made it through.

虽然看不到希望，但我们还是挺过来了。

I think another reason why I’ve been thinking about it quite a bit recently is, there was a statistic that was released, maybe a few months ago or a few weeks ago, that said that a certain amount of people think that now is worse than the Great Depression.

我认为我最近一直在思考这个问题的另一个原因是，可能是几个月前或几周前发布的一项统计数据，该统计数据说，有些人认为现在比大萧条时期更糟糕。

I’m just trying to process —

我只是想处理 —

And unemployment’s what?

失业是什么？

4.1 percent?

4.1%？

Yes.

是的。

Can you believe it?

你能相信吗？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I just think you can learn a lot from recent history, as you know, and so I spend a lot of time just reading fictionalizations of it.

我只是认为你可以从近代历史中学到很多东西，正如你所知，所以我花了很多时间阅读它的虚构作品。

When you think about the next steps for you, building out the Kyla Scanlon empire of one, what does that look like?

当您考虑下一步要如何建立凯拉·斯坎伦 (Kyla Scanlon) 帝国时，您会想到什么？

Or what are you going to do, or what are you trying to learn next?

或者你打算做什么，或者你下一步想学什么？

What should we expect?

我们应该期待什么？

I’d love if there’s more than one.

如果有多个的话我会很高兴。

Hiring is tough.

招聘很困难。

For me, I just wrote the book, and that was a big endeavor.

对我来说，我刚刚写了这本书，这是一项巨大的努力。

It’s very hard to write a book.

写一本书非常困难。

There were a lot of lessons learned from it, and I would like to write another one about something.

从中吸取了很多教训，我想再写一篇关于一些事情的文章。

That would be very nice.

那太好了。

Sure.

当然。

I watched it as a kid.

我小时候看过。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

It was on PBS.

这是在 PBS 上播出的。

Yes, exactly.

是的，完全正确。

I think something like that would be really great, where there’s this foundational place that you can go to get access to this stuff.

我认为这样的东西真的很棒，你可以在那里访问这些东西的基础地方。

That’s something that I wanted to experiment with as much as possible, just the different mediums of education.

这是我想尽可能多地尝试的事情，只是不同的教育媒介。

Lying between you and the Kyla Scanlon TV show, what is scarce?

在你和凯拉·斯坎伦电视节目之间，有什么是稀缺的？

In terms of getting there?

就到达那里而言？

Right.

正确的。

Is it money or talent or someone to work with?

是金钱、才华还是共事的人？

What’s the most scarce thing?

最稀缺的东西是什么？

When you’re in this sort of job, you’re a contractor.

当你从事这种工作时，你就是一名承包商。

I make money from the platforms, and I make money from the partnerships that I have, which I’m very grateful to have.

我从平台上赚钱，从我拥有的合作伙伴关系中赚钱，我对此非常感激。

This self-sustaining aspect of it can be interesting to navigate.

它的这种自我维持的方面可能会很有趣。

There are aspects of that.

这有几个方面。

Then there are aspects of, how do you do a TV show?

还有一些方面，你如何做一个电视节目？

Who do you talk to?

你和谁说话？

How do you get the right connections?

如何获得正确的连接？

It’s mostly just navigating a field.

它主要只是在一个领域中导航。

You’re in a corn maze, and you know that there’s a way out, but you just have to figure out what the right path is.

你身处玉米迷宫，你知道有一条出路，但你只需要找出正确的道路是什么。

To close, I’ll repeat the book again, In This Economy?

最后，我将再次重复这本书，在这种经济中？

How Money & Markets Really Work.

货币与市场的真正运作方式。

But please just repeat how people can find you across all your different platforms.

但请重复一下人们如何在您的所有不同平台上找到您。

I’m kylascan on Twitter, on Instagram, on TikTok.

我是 Twitter、Instagram 和 TikTok 上的 kylascan。

I have a LinkedIn where I also post videos.

我有一个 LinkedIn，我也在那里发布视频。

Kyla.substack.com is my newsletter.

Kyla.substack.com 是我的时事通讯。

My YouTube channel is Kyla Scanlon, and I have a podcast called Let’s Appreciate.

我的 YouTube 频道是 Kyla Scanlon，我有一个名为 Let's Appreciate 的播客。

Then, the book is called In This Economy?

那么，这本书的名字叫“在这种经济中？”

I narrate the audiobook version.

我讲述有声读物版本。

There’s also an e-book version.

还有电子书版本。

If you want to support a local bookstore, you can buy a signed copy from Boulder Bookstore in Boulder, Colorado.

如果您想支持当地的书店，可以从科罗拉多州博尔德的博尔德书店购买签名版。

Kyla Scanlon, thank you very much.

凯拉·斯坎伦，非常感谢你。

Oh, thanks for having me.

哦，谢谢你邀请我。