John O. Brennan on Life in the CIA (Ep. 111)
Today, I am here with John O.
今天，我和约翰·O.
Brennan, who is former director of the CIA.
布伦南，中央情报局前局长。
John has a new book out, called Undaunted: My Fight against America’s Enemies, at Home and Abroad.
约翰出版了一本新书，名为《无畏者：我与美国国内外敌人的斗争》。
Many public-sector memoirs are rather blah.
许多公共部门的回忆录都相当乏味。
This I found interesting, entertaining, and substantive on every page.
我发现每一页都有趣、有趣且实质性。
John, welcome.
约翰，欢迎。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
It’s good to be with you.
和你在一起真好。
What truths about human nature or human behavior do you think intelligence officials appreciate but few others do?
您认为情报官员欣赏但其他人很少欣赏的关于人性或人类行为的哪些真理？
I guess those who are involved in the conduct of espionage really understand that individuals will have vulnerabilities as well as areas of particular interest that they want to either pursue or protect.
我想那些参与间谍活动的人确实了解个人会有弱点以及他们想要追求或保护的特别感兴趣的领域。
Case officers — in the CIA parlance, the ones that go out and actually recruit spies to conduct espionage against their countries — I think really seek out those areas that could be, in fact, exploited — vulnerabilities or otherwise.
专案官员 ——用中央情报局的话说，就是那些出去招募间谍来针对他们的国家进行间谍活动的人 —— 我认为真正寻找那些实际上可能被利用的领域 —— 漏洞或其他方面。
Or people have, again, certain lifelong ambitions, goals.
或者人们有某些终生的抱负、目标。
For a lot of people who live overseas, it’s getting to the United States and bringing their families to the United States.
对于许多居住在海外的人来说，他们的目的是前往美国并将家人带到美国。
When you’re in CIA and you have a lot of interactions with people overseas, I think you appreciate some of those similarities, as well as those unique qualities that people bring to the fore.
当你在中央情报局工作时，你与海外人士有很多互动，我认为你会欣赏其中的一些相似之处，以及人们所表现出来的独特品质。
Now, your background is from the blue-collar county, Hudson County, in northern New Jersey.
现在，您的背景来自新泽西州北部的哈德逊县蓝领县。
How do you feel that influences your views on human behavior or temperament?
您认为这如何影响您对人类行为或气质的看法？
There are a number of things about my upbringing in Hudson County.
我在哈德逊县的成长经历有很多事情。
The son of an immigrant — my father emigrated from Ireland in 1948 when he was 28 years old.
移民之子——我的父亲于 1948 年从爱尔兰移民，当时他 28 岁。
Always impressed upon my siblings and myself just how special it was to be an American citizen and never to take for granted the fact that we were by dint of our birth because my father used to complain, it’s usually the people who were born here that took it for granted, not those who struggle for the good part of their lives to get here.
我和我的兄弟姐妹和我自己一直印象深刻的是，成为一名美国公民是多么特别，而且永远不要把我们出生的事实视为理所当然，因为我父亲曾经抱怨过，通常是出生在这里的人认为这是理所当然的，而不是那些为生命的美好时光奋斗到这里的人。
Growing up in a blue-collar, working-class neighborhood really allowed me to appreciate some of the challenges, difficulties that average Americans face on a daily basis, how a lot of people are just struggling to make sure that their families are fed, that their children are educated, that they can enjoy what life has to offer here in the United States.
在蓝领工人阶级社区长大，确实让我体会到普通美国人每天面临的一些挑战和困难，很多人只是在努力确保家人吃饱，孩子接受教育，享受美国生活所提供的一切。
I didn’t grow up in a privileged environment by any means.
无论如何，我并不是在优越的环境中长大的。
Sometimes my father was out of work, and he had to pick up part-time jobs just to make sure that there was money for my mother and father to be able to buy groceries for us to eat.
有时我的父亲失业了，他不得不做一些兼职工作，以确保我的父母有钱买杂货给我们吃。
I felt as though it really gave me a good perspective on what life, quite frankly, for most Americans is like.
坦率地说，我觉得这确实让我对大多数美国人的生活有了一个很好的了解。
How many CIA agents might have once entered the priesthood?
有多少中央情报局特工曾经成为神职人员？
CIA agents, first of all, refers to those foreign citizens who are recruited by CIA case officers to spy against their countries.
CIA特工，首先是指那些被CIA案件官员招募来对本国进行间谍活动的外国公民。
It’s referred to as CIA officers or CIA case officers.
它被称为中央情报局官员或中央情报局案件官员。
The broader notion.
更广泛的概念。
CIA employees.
中央情报局雇员。
There are similarities between those who decide to go into the priesthood and those who decide to go into the work of the intelligence community.
那些决定进入神职人员和那些决定进入情报界工作的人之间有相似之处。
As I said in my book, I was planning to become a priest and the first American pope, but then decided to go on a different path.
正如我在书中所说，我原本计划成为一名牧师和第一位美国教皇，但后来决定走不同的道路。
I met a number of people throughout my CIA career who had similar types of, at least early, ambitions and goals.
在我的中央情报局职业生涯中，我遇到了很多人，他们至少在早期都有类似的抱负和目标。
How do you think having been raised Catholic affects your worldview on intelligence gathering and human nature and how people will behave?
您认为天主教长大会如何影响您对情报收集、人性以及人们行为方式的世界观？
I was raised in a very religious household, Catholic faith — we would go to church, certainly, every Sunday.
我在一个非常虔诚的宗教家庭中长大，信仰天主教——当然，我们每周日都会去教堂。
I would go serve as an altar boy many days throughout the week.
我会在一周的很多天里担任祭坛侍童。
But there was a real emphasis on doing what is right and understanding the distinction between right and wrong and a premium put on honesty.
但他们真正强调做正确的事，理解正确与错误的区别，并重视诚实。
When you go into the intelligence profession, there also is a premium put on honesty, which sounds a bit, maybe, ironic to some, given that CIA officers sometimes have to adopt false personas when they go overseas to recruit spies.
当你进入情报行业时，诚实也会受到重视，这对一些人来说可能有点讽刺，因为中央情报局官员在去海外招募间谍时有时不得不采用虚假的角色。
But inside of the CIA family, there is a real need to make sure that people don’t stray from the truth because national security really hangs in the balance.
但在中央情报局内部，确实需要确保人们不会偏离事实，因为国家安全确实岌岌可危。
I just found that my early religious upbringing gave me a good grounding in morality and values and what I think are the ethics of life, although I have, quite frankly, lost my Catholic faith over the years.
我刚刚发现，我早期的宗教教育为我在道德和价值观以及我认为的生活伦理方面打下了良好的基础，尽管坦率地说，多年来我已经失去了天主教信仰。
I’m a practicing agnostic now, I guess.
我想我现在是一个实践中的不可知论者。
I never lost, though, that deeply rooted and instilled sense of right and wrong that was taught to me by my parents, by my teachers, and by the clergy.
然而，我从未失去过父母、老师和神职人员教给我的根深蒂固的是非观念。
I’m sure you know the Chris Whipple book about CIA directors.
我相信你知道克里斯·惠普尔（Chris Whipple）关于中央情报局局长的书。
He says about you, and I quote, “No one was better than Brennan at sifting through and interpreting raw material from disparate sources.” What are your secrets for being good at this?
他谈到你时，我引用了一句：“没有人比布伦南更擅长筛选和解释来自不同来源的原材料。”你擅长这方面的秘诀是什么？
First of all, Chris engages in hyperbole there.
首先，克里斯在这方面有些夸张。
CIA has a lot of people who are just so, so skilled in that.
中央情报局有很多在这方面非常熟练的人。
I started out in the operation side of CIA and had a real feel, I think, for clandestinely acquired intelligence, human intelligence as well as technical intelligence.
我从中央情报局的运营部门开始，对秘密获取的情报、人类情报以及技术情报有真实的感受。
Then also had a good sense of the different types of other sources of information that come into the agencies for the analyst to go through.
然后，还对进入机构供分析师查看的不同类型的其他信息来源有很好的了解。
I served as a State Department political officer in Saudi Arabia early in my career, so I was quite familiar with Department of State capabilities and cables, also open-source information.
我在职业生涯早期曾在沙特阿拉伯担任国务院政治官员，因此我对国务院的能力和电报以及开源信息非常熟悉。
I think it was my exposure to a lot of these areas of sources and acquisition that allowed me to put into context the worth, as well as allow me to very rigorously scrutinize the reliability, the accuracy, as well as the access of the individuals or the systems that are actually obtaining the intelligence.
我认为正是我对这些来源和获取领域的接触使我能够将其价值置于背景中，并允许我非常严格地审查实际获取情报的个人或系统的可靠性、准确性以及访问权限。
On UFOs and alien life
关于不明飞行物和外星生命
Let’s say we take a concrete issue.
假设我们讨论一个具体问题。
The Navy has reported that a lot of its pilots have seen unidentified flying objects.
美国海军报告称，许多飞行员都看到过不明飞行物。
If you’re tackling that, as a CIA director or someone who works there, what is it you would sift through and interpret?
如果你正在解决这个问题，作为中央情报局局长或在那里工作的人，你会筛选和解释什么？
How would that go?
那会怎样呢？
I’ve seen some of those videos from Navy pilots, and I must tell you that they are quite eyebrow-raising when you look at them.
我看过海军飞行员的一些视频，我必须告诉你，当你看到它们时，它们是相当令人惊讶的。
You try to ensure that you have as much data as possible in terms of visuals and also different types of maybe technical collection of sensors that you have at the time.
您尝试确保拥有尽可能多的视觉数据以及当时拥有的不同类型的技术收集的传感器数据。
Also, I believe, it’s important to reach out into other environments and find out, were there any type of weather phenomena at that time that might have, in fact, created the appearance of the phenomenon that you’re looking at?
另外，我认为，重要的是要深入其他环境并找出当时是否有任何类型的天气现象实际上可能造成了您所看到的现象的出现？
Were there some things that were happening on the ground, or other types of phenomena that could help explain what seems to be quite a mystery as far as what is there?
地面上是否发生了一些事情，或者其他类型的现象，可以帮助解释似乎相当神秘的事情？
I think an important thing for analysts to do is not to go into this type of challenge either discounting certain types of possibilities or believing in advance that it is likely X, Y, or Z.
我认为分析师要做的一件重要的事情是不要陷入这种类型的挑战，要么低估某些类型的可能性，要么提前相信它可能是 X、Y 或 Z。
You really have to approach it with an open mind, but get as much data as possible and get as much expertise as possible brought to bear.
您确实必须以开放的心态来对待它，但要获取尽可能多的数据并获得尽可能多的专业知识。
At the end of all that sifting and interpreting, what do you think is the most likely hypothesis?
在所有筛选和解释结束后，您认为最有可能的假设是什么？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
When people talk about it, is there other life besides what’s in the States, in the world, the globe?
当人们谈论它时，除了美国、世界、地球之外，还有其他的生活吗？
Life is defined in many different ways.
生命有多种不同的定义方式。
I think it’s a bit presumptuous and arrogant for us to believe that there’s no other form of life anywhere in the entire universe.
我认为我们相信整个宇宙中不存在其他生命形式有点自以为是和傲慢。
What that might be is subject to a lot of different views.
这可能是什么取决于很多不同的观点。
But I think some of the phenomena we’re going to be seeing continues to be unexplained and might, in fact, be some type of phenomenon that is the result of something that we don’t yet understand and that could involve some type of activity that some might say constitutes a different form of life.
但我认为我们将看到的一些现象仍然无法解释，事实上，可能是某种我们尚未理解的现象的结果，并且可能涉及某些类型的活动，有些人可能会说这些活动构成了一种不同的生命形式。
I think it’s a bit presumptuous and arrogant for us to believe that there’s no other form of life anywhere in the entire universe.
我认为我们相信整个宇宙中不存在其他生命形式有点自以为是和傲慢。
What that might be is subject to a lot of different views.
这可能是什么取决于很多不同的观点。
But I think some of the phenomena we’re going to be seeing continues to be unexplained and might, in fact, be some type of phenomenon that is the result of something that we don’t yet understand and that could involve some type of activity that some might say constitutes a different form of life.
但我认为我们将看到的一些现象仍然无法解释，实际上可能是某种我们尚未理解的现象的结果，并且可能涉及某些类型的活动，有些人可能会说这些活动构成了一种不同的生命形式。
Being an agnostic, you don’t think it’s something supernatural?
作为一个不可知论者，你不认为这是超自然的事情吗？
Well, supernatural is in the eye of the holder.
嗯，超自然就在持有者的眼中。
Again, I’m not going to discount them.
再说一遍，我不会打折它们。
That’s why I’m an agnostic as opposed to an atheist.
这就是为什么我是一个不可知论者而不是无神论者。
I just want to leave my mind open as to what something might be, but who knows what these things might be?
我只是想敞开心扉去思考某些东西可能是什么，但谁知道这些东西可能是什么？
As I understand how the CIA works, inside the CIA buildings, you, in essence, have a workplace without smartphones for security reasons.
据我了解，中央情报局是如何运作的，在中央情报局大楼内，出于安全原因，本质上你的工作场所没有智能手机。
As a manager, what have you learned about the effect of smartphones on our workplace?
作为一名经理，您对智能手机对工作场所的影响有何了解？
It’s a relatively recent technological development, as far as smartphones and Fitbits and other types of things that .
就智能手机、Fitbit 和其他类型的产品而言，这是一项相对较新的技术发展。
.
。
.
。
even though I grew up in an era when we didn’t have all of this technology at our fingertips, I have come to understand the power of technology and how it can be used to advance one’s objectives.
尽管在我成长的时代，所有这些技术都触手可及，但我已经开始了解技术的力量以及如何利用它来推进一个人的目标。
But also, it could be used by adversaries to exploit, to gain access in certain areas, to certain types of environments or conversations or whatever, that can really defeat physical security, obstacles, and perimeters.
而且，它也可能被对手用来利用，进入某些区域、某些类型的环境或对话或其他什么，这可以真正击败物理安全、障碍和边界。
So I fully understand why certain types of technologies could compromise the secrecy or the needed protection of methods in certain environments.
因此，我完全理解为什么某些类型的技术可能会损害某些环境中方法的保密性或所需的保护。
You can do things to defeat those types of exploitations, but again, the CIA, NSA, FBI, and others are always mindful that technology that is used for our purposes can be reverse-engineered for the purposes of others.
你可以采取一些措施来击败这些类型的利用，但同样，中央情报局、国家安全局、联邦调查局和其他机构始终牢记，用于我们目的的技术可以被逆向工程用于其他人的目的。
My question is much more mundane.
我的问题更加平凡。
When you have all the workers with no smartphones, do they get more done?
当所有员工都没有智能手机时，他们会完成更多工作吗？
Or is there no benefit?
还是没有任何好处？
I think there are certainly benefits to it.
我认为它肯定有好处。
The CIA officers leave the phones in their car or whatever, so they can go out and be able to talk to their family or whatever else.
中央情报局官员将电话留在车内或其他地方，这样他们就可以出去与家人或其他人交谈。
There are ways to communicate outside.
外面有办法沟通。
But I think that there are a lot of distractions that come with phones.
但我认为手机会带来很多干扰。
You can go off in pursuit of various tangents as you get more and more curious about certain things.
当你对某些事物越来越好奇时，你可以去追求各种切线。
Now, agency officers have access to computers and the internet, but even there, we’ve had to take steps to make sure that people don’t go down wrong paths.
现在，机构官员可以使用计算机和互联网，但即使在那里，我们也必须采取措施确保人们不会走上错误的道路。
On personality tests, polygraphs, and punctuality
关于性格测试、测谎仪和守时
How accurate is personality testing for workers?
员工性格测试的准确性如何？
Accurate?
准确的？
It is one of the tools.
它是工具之一。
All these types of tools are useful, but none of them should be seen as dispositive in any way that’s going to discount all the other factors that are brought to bear.
所有这些类型的工具都很有用，但它们都不应该被视为具有决定性作用，不会忽视所有其他影响因素。
But when people are hired in the agency or in their security reviews, as well as people who want to work for the agency overseas, who offer their services, you need to go through a series of vetting and tests that try to give you a better sense of where the truth might lie.
但是，当该机构聘用人员或进行安全审查时，以及想要在海外为该机构工作并提供服务的人员时，您需要经过一系列审查和测试，以试图让您更好地了解真相可能在哪里。
Say I measure as conscientious in some of these tests.
假设我在其中一些测试中被认为是认真的。
Does that mean I’m actually likely to be conscientious?
这是否意味着我实际上可能是尽职尽责的？
It’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
I think just because someone tests in a certain way doesn’t mean that they’re going to actually follow through and be that way.
我认为仅仅因为某人以某种方式进行测试并不意味着他们会真正遵循并成为那样。
It depends on the rigor and the strength of the test.
这取决于测试的严格性和强度。
But I’m not going to stand behind any particular test and say that it is a clear, clear indicator.
但我不会支持任何特定的测试并说这是一个明确的指标。
I think there are some tests that are better indicators than others.
我认为有些测试是比其他测试更好的指标。
For example, in the agency, we use the polygraph.
例如，在代理机构中，我们使用测谎仪。
The polygraph itself can be accurate or not, but we have found that in the polygraph sessions, a lot of things come out from a person because they are concerned that the polygraph machine will register a falsehood if they tell it.
测谎仪本身可能准确，也可能不准确，但我们发现，在测谎仪会话中，很多事情都是从一个人身上说出来的，因为他们担心如果他们说出的话，测谎仪会记录下谎言。
Again, it is used as a tool.
再次，它被用作工具。
It needs to be a part of a group of things that are going to be used in order to determine whether or not somebody is worthy of employment or telling the truth or not.
它需要成为一组事物的一部分，用于确定某人是否值得雇用或是否值得说实话。
In your book, you seem to treat polygraph evidence as very reliable.
在你的书中，你似乎认为测谎仪证据非常可靠。
Our legal system usually treats it as not so reliable.
我们的法律体系通常认为它不太可靠。
The research literature is somewhat skeptical from randomized control trials.
研究文献对随机对照试验有些怀疑。
How reliable do you think it is?
你认为它有多可靠？
I don’t agree with your characterization that, in my book, I portrayed as very reliable.
我不同意你的描述，在我的书中，我将其描述为非常可靠。
I thought that my Catholic guilt was trying to just totally undermine any effort, if I hadn’t one, to try to deceive the polygrapher and the polygraph machine.
我认为我的天主教徒罪恶感试图完全破坏任何试图欺骗测谎仪和测谎仪的努力（如果我没有的话）。
I was not going to take that chance because I wanted to be hired by the agency.
我不会抓住这个机会，因为我想被该机构雇用。
Again, I think that they can be a very reliable indicator, but people have perfected some techniques to defeat polygraph machines.
再说一遍，我认为它们可以是一个非常可靠的指标，但人们已经完善了一些技术来击败测谎仪。
It says much, dependent on not just the polygraph machine, but the polygrapher.
它说明了很多，不仅取决于测谎仪，还取决于测谎仪。
The polygraphers go through extensive training, and a lot of their assessment is done by looking at the individual, and how they react, and how they shift, and how they move, and the way they respond to certain questions.
测谎仪经过广泛的培训，他们的很多评估都是通过观察个人、他们的反应、他们如何转变、他们如何移动以及他们对某些问题的反应方式来完成的。
They come back to questions later on, and whether or not there’s consistency in the answers that are provided.
他们稍后会回过头来讨论问题，以及所提供的答案是否一致。
Again, the polygraph is a process and is designed to try to uncover anything that maybe an employee or a spy is trying to hide.
再次强调，测谎仪是一个过程，旨在试图揭露员工或间谍可能试图隐藏的任何事情。
Are CIA agents more punctual than average?
中央情报局特工比平均水平更准时吗？
Some certainly are.
有些确实是。
Many of them need to be if you’re going to have a rendezvous, a clandestine rendezvous with a spy from overseas, one of your assets or agents.
如果你要与来自海外的间谍、你的资产或特工进行一次秘密会面，那么其中许多都需要这样做。
You have worked for hours to get clean so that you make sure that the local security services are not onto you and surveilling you, and your agent has done the same thing so that when you meet at the designated place at a designated hour, you can quickly then have either a brush pass or a quick meeting or whatever.
你工作了好几个小时才干净，这样你就可以确保当地的安全部门不会盯上你并监视你，你的代理人也做了同样的事情，这样当你在指定的时间在指定的地点见面时，你就可以很快地刷通行证或快速会面或其他什么。
If you’re not punctual, you can put that agent’s life in danger.
如果您不准时，您可能会危及该特工的生命。
I think it’s instilled in CIA, certainly case officers, that time is of the essence, and you need to be able to follow the clock.
我认为中央情报局，尤其是案件官员，已经被灌输了这样的观念：时间至关重要，你需要能够遵守时间。
Also, I remember when I was CIA director and I would go down to the White House for an executive council meeting or a principals committee meeting.
另外，我记得当我担任中央情报局局长时，我会去白宫参加执行委员会会议或校长委员会会议。
Jim Clapper, the director of National Intelligence, and myself would always be the first ones there because we were always very punctual.
国家情报总监吉姆·克拉珀（Jim Clapper）和我自己总是第一个到场，因为我们总是非常准时。
I think sometimes the policymakers would look at the clock not as carefully as we would.
我认为有时政策制定者不会像我们那样仔细地观察时钟。
If you’re hiring for punctuality, and obviously, you would expect employees to show an extreme degree of loyalty, do you worry that you’re not hiring for enough of what’s called disagreeability in the personality literature: people who will contradict their superiors, people who will pick fights?
如果你招聘员工的目的是准时，而且显然你会期望员工表现出极高的忠诚度，那么你是否担心你没有招聘足够多的性格文献中所谓的“不同意”的人：那些会顶撞上级的人，会挑衅的人？
They’re a pain to work with, but at the end of the day, they bring up points that other people are afraid to say or won’t even see.
与他们一起工作很痛苦，但最终，他们提出了其他人不敢说或什至不会看到的观点。
We’re not looking to hire just a bunch of yes people.
我们不想只雇用一群唯唯诺诺的人。
To me, I don’t think punctuality means that you’re looking to instill discipline in an organization.
对我来说，我不认为守时意味着你要在组织中灌输纪律。
You’re trying to ensure that you’re taking advantage of —
你试图确保你正在利用 ——
But that and loyalty — it would seem to select against disagreeability.
但这和忠诚 ——它似乎会选择反对不同意。
There’s loyalty to the Constitution.
有对宪法的忠诚。
There’s loyalty to the oath of office.
这是对就职宣誓的忠诚。
To me, there shouldn’t be loyalty to any individuals, including inside the CIA.
对我来说，不应该对任何个人忠诚，包括中央情报局内部的人。
I would like to think that CIA recruiters would be looking for individuals who are intellectually curious, have critical thinking skills, and mainly have also, I think, some degree of contrariness because you don’t want people just to accept as gospel what it is that they are being told, especially if they’re going to be interacting with spies overseas.
我认为中央情报局的招聘人员会寻找具有求知欲、具有批判性思维能力的人，而且我认为，主要还具有一定程度的矛盾性，因为你不希望人们只是接受他们所听到的信息，特别是如果他们要与海外间谍打交道的话。
You don’t want someone who’s going to argue with everything just for the sake of argumentation.
你不希望有人只是为了争论而与一切争论。
But I know that, certainly, when I was at the agency and director of CIA, I wanted people to challenge what I was saying.
但我知道，当我担任中央情报局局长时，我当然希望人们质疑我所说的话。
I had no monopoly on wisdom or knowledge or insights, so you want people to be willing to speak up.
我并不垄断智慧、知识或见解，所以你希望人们愿意畅所欲言。
In my book, I talk about how I was reluctant to do that earlier on.
在我的书中，我谈到了我早些时候是多么不愿意这样做。
I learned the importance of doing that as I went through my career.
在我的职业生涯中，我了解到这样做的重要性。
It costs more than ever before to live in or near McLean.
在麦克莱恩或其附近居住的成本比以往任何时候都高。
Many jobs, including presumably CIA jobs, require a greater knowledge of tech, which means there’s a higher forgone wage outside of the agency.
许多工作，包括中央情报局的工作，都需要更多的技术知识，这意味着该机构之外的工资更高。
What’s the CIA going to do to meet the next generation of recruiting challenges?
中央情报局将采取什么措施来应对下一代招募挑战？
If talent is your real asset, aren’t you in a somewhat unfavorable position looking forward?
如果人才是你真正的资产，那么你的未来岂不是处于不利地位吗？
Sure.
当然。
If you just look at the financial remuneration that comes with a job, yes, we cannot compete with either Wall Street or Silicon Valley or whatever.
如果你只看工作带来的经济报酬，是的，我们无法与华尔街或硅谷或其他任何地方竞争。
But there are a lot of individuals who want to give back to this great country of ours and also like the idea of working for the CIA.
但有很多人想要回馈我们这个伟大的国家，并且也喜欢为中央情报局工作的想法。
My recruiters would tell me that with millennials and Gen Xers, they really had a tough time because those younger Americans would bounce around from job to job, and they were going to come to the CIA for two or three years and be able to put CIA on their résumé, and then be able to go off and make their millions.
我的招聘人员会告诉我，对于千禧一代和 X 一代来说，他们确实度过了一段艰难的时期，因为那些年轻的美国人会从一个工作跳到另一个工作，他们将在中央情报局工作两三年，并能够将中央情报局列入他们的简历，然后就能够离开并赚取数百万美元。
I said, “Well, don’t look at it as a problem.
我说：“好吧，别把它当作一个问题。
Look at it as an opportunity, that these individuals who could be hired by the Silicon Valleys and others and big banks, are willing to give us two or three years.
将其视为一个机会，这些可以被硅谷和其他地方以及大银行雇用的人愿意给我们两三年的时间。
That gives us two or three years to convince them that this is the absolute best place to work because it’s such exceptionally talented people here, and there’s technology at your fingertips, and you’re really doing something to keep their families and fellow Americans safe.”
这给了我们两到三年的时间来说服他们，这绝对是最好的工作场所，因为这里有如此才华横溢的人才，而且触手可及的技术，而且你确实在做一些事情来保护他们的家人和美国同胞的安全。”
Our attrition rate is very, very low.
我们的流失率非常非常低。
Even if individuals come into the agency with the eye to just staying for a couple, three years, you’d be amazed at how many decide to stay just because the type of work that they’re doing is really quite thrilling.
即使人们进入该机构只是想呆上几年、三年，你也会惊讶地发现有多少人决定留下来只是因为他们所做的工作类型确实非常令人兴奋。
If I want to know who will win the Super Bowl, I look at the betting markets.
如果我想知道谁将赢得超级碗，我会查看博彩市场。
Why doesn’t the CIA use prediction markets more, even just internal markets?
为什么中央情报局不更多地利用预测市场，甚至只是内部市场？
You could do them with chits.
你可以用钱来做。
You could do it with real money, vouchers in the cafeteria, the winner gets a place in the CIA museum, whatever you want to do.
你可以用真钱、自助餐厅的优惠券、获胜者获得中央情报局博物馆的一席之地，无论你想做什么。
There’s different types of quantitative models that are used by the CIA to see if they could forecast certain outcomes of certain situations, but we’re not going to get involved in the betting environment.
中央情报局使用不同类型的定量模型来查看是否可以预测某些情况的某些结果，但我们不会涉足博彩环境。
I think that what the CIA has always tried to do is to explore any type of new techniques or approaches or practices that are going to provide, again, just one more insight or perspective into trying to understand this world of ours and how events are going to evolve.
我认为中央情报局一直试图做的是探索任何类型的新技术、方法或实践，这些技术、方法或实践将再次提供一种更多的见解或视角，以试图了解我们这个世界以及事件将如何演变。
You’re familiar with Philip Tetlock’s superforecasters project?
您熟悉菲利普·泰洛克的超级预测者项目吗？
Not familiar.
不熟悉。
Not quite, no.
不完全是，不。
He’s an academic at the University of Pennsylvania.
他是宾夕法尼亚大学的学者。
He trains people and measures their predictive performance over time.
他对人们进行培训并衡量他们随着时间的推移的预测表现。
He’s kept a running tally on predictors for decades, actually, and very often, his best — superforecasters he calls them — they’re housewives.
几十年来，他一直在对预测者进行统计，事实上，而且很多时候，他最好的“——他称之为超级预测者”——“她们是家庭主妇。
They’re people who don’t have very high formal status.
他们是没有很高正式地位的人。
I was going to ask you, how do you think the CIA does against Tetlock’s superforecasters?
我想问你，你认为中央情报局如何对付泰特洛克的超级预测者？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
I wouldn’t dispute his bottom line at all.
我根本不会质疑他的底线。
I am really impressed with people who have a good sense of reality in the world and commonsense approaches to it.
我对那些对世界具有良好的现实感和常识性方法的人印象深刻。
Frequently, wisdom is derived from the ability to absorb information, and then process it, and then see relationships, and also have almost an intuitive sense of past experiences, and then apply that to future situations.
通常，智慧源自吸收信息、然后处理信息、然后看到关系的能力，并且对过去的经验有近乎直觉的感觉，然后将其应用到未来的情况。
I’m interested now.
我现在感兴趣了。
I’m going to take a look at that forecasting approach, but I would never tell CIA analysts to put their eggs in one type of basket as far as forecasting.
我将研究一下这种预测方法，但就预测而言，我永远不会告诉中央情报局分析师将鸡蛋放在一种类型的篮子里。
People think, “What’s the prediction of something?” I hate the term, in fact, prediction.
人们会想：“对某事的预测是什么？”事实上，我讨厌这个词：预测。
It’s looking at what are those variables?
它正在研究这些变量是什么？
What are those factors that are going to come into play?
哪些因素将发挥作用？
If certain things evolve in a certain way in a certain sequence that the interactions between these variables are likely to produce certain outcomes that have certain implications, which is what the intelligence officers, analysts do when they talk to policymakers because, again, there are so many different variables.
如果某些事情按照一定的顺序以某种方式演变，那么这些变量之间的相互作用可能会产生具有一定影响的某些结果，这就是情报官员、分析师在与政策制定者交谈时所做的，因为同样，有很多不同的变量。
When you look at events around the world, what the US decides to do on the policy front is frequently quite determinative of what the future course is going to be.
当你观察世界各地发生的事件时，美国在政策方面的决定往往对未来的走向具有决定性作用。
I think it’s having the appreciation of the range of variables that come in and how that ecosystem is evolving.
我认为这是对出现的变量范围以及生态系统如何演变的认识。
It just gives people a good sense, and a lot of times, it is rather intuitive.
它只是给人一种很好的感觉，而且很多时候，是比较直观的。
It seems that offense should very often be easier than defense when it comes to terrorism.
就恐怖主义而言，进攻往往比防守更容易。
There are just many disruptive, destructive things you can do.
你可以做很多破坏性的、破坏性的事情。
I know America has taken many, many, many steps since 9/11 to limit terror attacks, but it still seems to me, just as an outside observer, that we should be observing more attacks than in fact we do, that it should be impossible to stop so many of them.
我知道自 9/11 事件以来，美国已经采取了很多、很多、很多措施来限制恐怖袭击，但在我看来，作为一个外部观察者，我们应该观察到比实际情况更多的袭击，而且要阻止这么多袭击应该是不可能的。
At the deepest conceptual reason, what do you think are the defects in the attackers that have led to so few major terror attacks in this country since 9/11?
从最深层次的概念原因来看，您认为自9/11以来，导致这个国家很少发生重大恐怖袭击的袭击者的缺陷是什么？
So, you want me to give the enemies the reasons why they’re not as successful as they would have been?
那么，你想让我向敌人解释为什么他们没有取得应有的成功吗？
I think sometimes it’s because they continue to go back to the tried-and-true methods.
我认为有时这是因为他们继续回归经过验证的方法。
When I look at terrorist acts, especially those that are international, transnational terrorism directed against the United States —al-Qaida and other types of terrorist organizations continue to go after that which is going to go boom and bang, trying to secret an improvised explosive device onto an airplane, trying to bring down that air carrier over the United States, as opposed to looking at new and ingenious and innovative ways to really cause havoc.
当我看到恐怖主义行为，特别是那些针对美国的国际、跨国恐怖主义行为时，基地组织和其他类型的恐怖组织继续追捕那些即将发生的事情，试图将简易爆炸装置秘密安装到飞机上，试图击落美国上空的航空母舰，而不是寻找新的、巧妙的和创新的方法来真正造成严重破坏。
But they continue to want to have things blow up.
但他们仍然想让事情爆炸。
The defenses that have been put in place really have guarded against and made it much more difficult for the terrorists to surmount the various obstacles and security checks that are in place.
已经建立的防御措施确实有效地防范了恐怖分子，并使其更难以跨越各种障碍和安全检查。
But they continue to focus on that.
但他们继续关注这一点。
And I’m glad they do in some respects because that’s where we’re best prepared to defeat their efforts.
我很高兴他们在某些方面做到了这一点，因为这是我们最有准备击败他们的努力的地方。
I still shudder when I think about the availability of weapons in the United States — different types of assault weapons and how much carnage could be created and has been in instances.
当我想到美国拥有的武器——不同类型的攻击性武器，以及可能造成和已经发生了多少屠杀时，我仍然感到不寒而栗。
But rarely has it been as a result of an international terrorist group, transnational terrorist group.
但这很少是由国际恐怖组织、跨国恐怖组织造成的。
You don’t hear about an al-Qaida member who picks up an assault weapon and just mows people down at a mall.
你不会听说过基地组织成员拿起攻击性武器在商场里砍倒人们的事。
Occasionally, attempts are made, or sometimes it actually happens, but they still go after that IED that is going to blow up something and create the type of footage that they want.
偶尔会进行尝试，或者有时确实发生了，但他们仍然追求那个会炸毁某些东西并创建他们想要的镜头类型的简易爆炸装置。
In your model, is it that they’re good bureaucratic managers, but they’re simply bureaucratic and so predictable, sort of like the old IBM?
在你的模型中，他们是否是优秀的官僚管理者，但他们只是官僚主义并且如此可预测，有点像旧的 IBM？
Or they’re just flat outright bad managers, and they couldn’t run a candy store?
或者他们只是彻头彻尾的糟糕经理，他们无法经营一家糖果店？
It really varies, just like any organization.
就像任何组织一样，它确实各不相同。
Sometimes individual leaders are quite cunning and quite innovative.
有时个别领导者非常狡猾并且非常有创新精神。
Also, they’re able to use the resource available to them, and they’re able to recruit the right type of people, and they’re able to maintain the secrecy that is needed for this, while others are just wannabe terrorists, and they trip over themselves, thankfully.
此外，他们能够利用可用的资源，他们能够招募合适类型的人，他们能够维持所需的秘密，而其他人只是想成为恐怖分子，谢天谢地，他们被自己绊倒了。
There are a lot of very, very bad terrorists that are out there that thankfully have been caught, terrorists that are caught anywhere along that operational cycle, from their efforts to recruit or get financing or whatever.
值得庆幸的是，有很多非常非常坏的恐怖分子被抓获，这些恐怖分子在整个行动周期的任何地方都被抓获，因为他们努力招募或获得融资或其他什么。
Fortunately, the FBI, CIA, NSA have insights into what they’re doing.
幸运的是，联邦调查局、中央情报局、国家安全局对他们正在做的事情有深入的了解。
As they progress, they get further along, and they recruit the operatives.
随着他们的进步，他们也取得了进一步的进展，并招募了特工。
Then they get the explosives, and they start to surveil and case and even do dry runs.
然后他们拿到炸药，开始监视、侦查，甚至进行演练。
Then they’re closer to execution of the attack, but also, they run into more of the sensors, if you will — both human and technical — that uncover their activities.
然后他们就更接近执行攻击，而且，如果你愿意的话，他们会遇到更多的传感器——“人类和技术”——揭露他们的活动。
As you know, there’s a CIA museum inside the CIA.
如你所知，中央情报局内部有一个中央情报局博物馆。
Who or what should be shown greater honor or respect in the CIA museum?
在中央情报局博物馆中，谁或什么应该受到更大的荣誉或尊重？
So many CIA officers who come into the organization undercover, which means that they cannot acknowledge, except to their immediate family members, that they’re actually working with the CIA.
如此多的中央情报局官员以卧底身份进入该组织，这意味着除了他们的直系亲属之外，他们无法承认他们实际上是在与中央情报局合作。
They know that they’re going to live a life in secrecy and that their accomplishments, achievements will not be known outside of maybe a small circle within CIA.
他们知道他们将过着秘密的生活，他们的成就、成就不会为中央情报局内部的一个小圈子之外的人所知。
The reason why that CIA museum is in CIA and not somewhere else is that there are some things that still remain classified because they reveal different types of sources and methods that could, in fact, compromise ongoing activities or future operations.
中央情报局博物馆之所以位于中央情报局而不是其他地方，是因为有些东西仍然处于机密状态，因为它们揭示了不同类型的来源和方法，实际上可能会损害正在进行的活动或未来的行动。
I really think it should honor those faceless and nameless women and men of CIA who, over the years, put themselves at great danger and undertook great sacrifices — and their families.
我真的认为它应该向那些不露面、无名的中央情报局男女员工以及他们的家人致敬，他们多年来将自己置于巨大危险之中并做出了巨大牺牲。
Probably, if any component of CIA demands more attention and more appreciation, it’s those family members of CIA officers.
如果说中央情报局的任何组成部分需要更多的关注和更多的赞赏，那么可能就是中央情报局官员的家人。
The spouses, the sons and daughters and parents who keep the home fires burning and allow their CIA officers to go overseas at a moment’s notice or to go into a war zone and put their family’s future at risk.
这些配偶、儿女和父母让家里的火继续燃烧，并允许他们的中央情报局官员随时出国或进入战区，将他们家庭的未来置于危险之中。
Those are really the unsung heroes of CIA, those family members of CIA officers.
这些确实是中央情报局的无名英雄，那些中央情报局官员的家属。
How do you talk about your work with a spouse or partner without revealing classified information?
如何在不透露机密信息的情况下与配偶或伴侣谈论您的工作？
You do it carefully.
你做的很仔细。
Thankfully, during the course of my career, my wife — we’re married for 42 years.
值得庆幸的是，在我的职业生涯中，我的妻子 ——我们结婚 42 年了。
Early on, it was tough.
早期，这很艰难。
I talk about it in the book.
我在书中谈到了这一点。
After less than a year with CIA, my wife and I separated for a year because I got into that CIA environment.
在中央情报局工作不到一年后，我和妻子分居了一年，因为我进入了中央情报局的环境。
Then I started to keep things from her, and she sensed a growing distance between us.
然后我开始对她隐瞒事情，她感觉到我们之间的距离越来越远。
And there was a distance between us.
而且我们之间还有一段距离。
Thankfully, we got back together.
值得庆幸的是，我们又复合了。
We came to an understanding that I would try to explain as much as I could without going into classified information.
我们达成共识，我会尽力解释，而不涉及机密信息。
She was willing to give me that latitude.
她愿意给我这个自由。
Whenever I would administer the oath of office to a new group of CIA officers every month at CIA headquarters, I tell them to not neglect the home front because, first of all, we want happy employees at CIA.
每当我每月在中央情报局总部向一批新的中央情报局官员宣誓就职时，我都会告诉他们不要忽视后方，因为首先，我们希望中央情报局的员工快乐。
They’re better employees.
他们是更好的员工。
But also, they need to remember their responsibilities and obligations at home to spouses, to children, to siblings or parents, or whatever.
而且，他们还需要记住自己在家里对配偶、孩子、兄弟姐妹或父母等的责任和义务。
It is important.
这很重要。
But like the Bin Laden raid — Kathy, my wife, didn’t know about our plans for that raid until after it happened.
但就像本·拉登袭击一样——我的妻子凯西直到袭击发生后才知道我们的袭击计划。
After we knew that we got Bin Laden, we brought his remains back to Afghanistan.
当我们知道抓到了本·拉登后，我们把他的遗体带回了阿富汗。
I gave her a call and said, “Kathy, we just had a great counterterrorism success.
我给她打电话说：“凯西，我们刚刚取得了巨大的反恐成功。
Turn on the television because President Obama is going to be speaking to the nation and the world in a few minutes.”
打开电视，因为几分钟后奥巴马总统将向全国和全世界发表讲话。”
I think she sensed what it might be, based on the excitement of my voice.
我想她从我兴奋的声音中感觉到了可能是什么。
But I didn’t want to burden her with that type of information that she couldn’t reveal to anybody else.
但我不想让她承担那些她不能透露给其他人的信息的负担。
It is tough.
它太硬。
It’s a balance, but it’s one that CIA officers, I think, take very seriously.
这是一种平衡，但我认为中央情报局官员非常重视这种平衡。
Which spycraft norms have frayed the most over the last 20 years, or maybe just disappeared?
哪些间谍规范在过去 20 年中磨损最严重，或者可能刚刚消失？
Well, because of the advancements in technology, spy business has changed profoundly.
嗯，由于技术的进步，间谍业务发生了深刻的变化。
Years ago, CIA would be able to fabricate a passport as well as a visa and go across a border and — as a CIA officer would say — with a fistful of 50s be able to operate rather well, even in denied areas because you didn’t have all of the closed-circuit televisions.
几年前，中央情报局能够伪造护照和签证并跨越边境，并且“正如中央情报局官员所说的那样”，只需一把 50 美元就可以很好地运作，即使是在被拒绝的地区，因为你没有所有的闭路电视。
You didn’t have the passport-readable machines at airports.
机场没有可读取护照的机器。
You didn’t have the digital dust that we all leave, whether it be with a credit card or with our iPhone or whatever else.
你没有我们留下的数字灰尘，无论是信用卡、iPhone 还是其他东西。
So, operating clandestinely in heavily digitized, sensor-rife environments is really difficult.
因此，在高度数字化、传感器遍布的环境中秘密操作确实很困难。
Traditional spycraft really has had to be transformed so that you’re able to operate in a very busy digital environment and one where the local services have so many opportunities to pick up on your every move.
传统的间谍技术确实必须进行转变，以便您能够在非常繁忙的数字环境中运作，并且本地服务有很多机会捕捉到您的一举一动。
Being able to go dark and to operate covertly and clandestinely overseas is much more challenging, but thankfully, I think CIA officers have done a tremendous job of operating in that digital noise.
能够在海外秘密行动并秘密行动更具挑战性，但值得庆幸的是，我认为中央情报局官员在数字噪音中的行动方面做得非常出色。
Operating clandestinely in heavily digitized, sensor-rife environments is really difficult.
在高度数字化、传感器遍布的环境中秘密操作确实很困难。
Traditional spycraft really has had to be transformed so that you’re able to operate in a very busy digital environment and one where the local services have so many opportunities to pick up on your every move.
传统的间谍技术确实必须进行转变，以便您能够在非常繁忙的数字环境中运作，并且本地服务有很多机会捕捉到您的一举一动。
Being able to go dark and to operate covertly and clandestinely overseas is much more challenging, but thankfully, I think CIA officers have done a tremendous job of operating in that digital noise.
能够在海外秘密行动并秘密行动更具挑战性，但值得庆幸的是，我认为中央情报局官员在数字噪音中的行动方面做得非常出色。
The final stage of turning a complex bundle of information into a simple briefing for politicians, say a president — what’s the best way to avoid biases when you do that?
一位总统说，将一堆复杂的信息转变为向政治家提供的简单简报的最后阶段，“当你这样做时，避免偏见的最佳方法是什么？”
And what kind of scale do you need to be good at that?
你需要什么样的规模才能擅长这一点？
CIA officers are expected to be, and must remain, apolitical, policy-neutral when it comes to any type of issue that policymakers may be grappling with.
当涉及政策制定者可能要解决的任何类型的问题时，中央情报局官员应该而且必须保持非政治性和政策中立。
I also think it’s a very good thing for agency officers to do when they brief somebody — like incoming President-elect Biden — about a particular issue, is to state clearly what is it that we know from sources — the reliability, the accuracy of that information.
我还认为，对于机构官员来说，当他们向某人（比如即将上任的当选总统拜登）通报某个特定问题时，明确说明我们从消息来源了解到什么——这些信息的可靠性和准确性，这是一件非常好的事情。
What is it that we don’t know as far as gaps in our knowledge are concerned?
就我们的知识差距而言，我们不知道什么？
And what are our capabilities to be able to address those gaps?
我们有什么能力来弥补这些差距？
Because if you don’t nest within that broader environment of what is knowable, then I think you can give your listener the wrong impression about the extent and depth of your knowledge.
因为如果你不把自己置于已知的更广阔的环境中，那么我认为你可能会给听众留下关于你知识的广度和深度的错误印象。
It’s important to put that knowledge, that assessment, that analysis into a context that the policymaker then can appreciate.
重要的是要将这些知识、评估和分析置于政策制定者能够理解的背景中。
This wasn’t the CIA, but it came out recently that sources had not been telling the president how many troops we actually have in Syria.
这不是中央情报局，但最近有消息称，消息来源并没有告诉总统我们在叙利亚实际有多少军队。
Is that ever justified, that you have a loyalty to the Constitution, you think the president will make a mistake or is going to remain misinformed, and so you give a briefing that is not the best, literally absolute, correct Bayesian estimate of the truth?
你对宪法忠诚，你认为总统会犯错误，或者会继续被误导，所以你提供的简报不是最好的、绝对的、正确的贝叶斯对真相的估计，这是否合理？
When you say sources, sources in the lexicon of the intelligence world there — these are individuals overseas, foreigners who give information to US officers.
当你说消息来源时，情报界词典中的消息来源——这些人是海外个人，是向美国官员提供信息的外国人。
But there never should be a reason or occasion for US government officials to provide misinformation or disinformation to a president.
但美国政府官员绝不应该有任何理由或场合向总统提供错误信息或虚假信息。
Absolutely not.
绝对不是。
It’s critically important that a president in a National Security Council team have as accurate an understanding as possible about it.
国家安全委员会团队中的主席对此有尽可能准确的理解至关重要。
I hadn’t heard about anybody not reporting what they believe was accurate statistics about what’s going on inside of Syria.
我没有听说有人没有报告他们认为有关叙利亚境内正在发生的情况的准确统计数据。
The sources that provide CIA officers the information might be misinformed, might be misleading, but that’s part of the business of intelligence.
向中央情报局官员提供信息的来源可能会被误导，但这是情报工作的一部分。
You need to try to weed out the wheat from the chaff.
你需要努力从谷壳中剔除小麦。
Now as you know, and in your book, you’ve spoken out against USG use of torture on detainees.
如您所知，您在书中公开反对美国政府对被拘留者使用酷刑。
Do you think that torture works in getting people to tell the truth?
你认为酷刑能起到让人们说出真相的作用吗？
Also, as I say in my book, I don’t refer to CIA’s Detention Interrogation Program as torture because that program was duly authorized by the president of the United States, and it was deemed lawful by the Department of Justice.
此外，正如我在书中所说，我并不将中央情报局的拘留审讯计划称为酷刑，因为该计划是由美国总统正式授权的，并且被司法部认为是合法的。
Therefore, since it was deemed lawful, it was not torture at the time.
因此，既然被认为是合法的，那么在当时就不算酷刑。
Now, people can disagree with those Department of Justice memos, and I do, but CIA officers were doing their obligation the best that they could.
现在，人们可以不同意司法部的这些备忘录，我也同意，但中央情报局官员正在尽最大努力履行他们的义务。
From the standpoint of efficacy of the use of those techniques, up to and including waterboarding, I do not believe, first of all, that they are consistent with American values, and I don’t think the CIA should have been asked to do that.
从使用这些技术（包括水刑）的功效的角度来看，我首先不认为它们符合美国的价值观，而且我认为中央情报局不应该被要求这样做。
First of all, they had no experience in a detention program nor in an interrogation program.
首先，他们没有拘留计划或审讯计划的经验。
Again, from just a moral standpoint, an ethics and principles standpoint, I don’t think that they should have been authorized.
再说一遍，仅从道德角度、道德和原则角度来看，我认为他们不应该获得授权。
Secondly, though, I do not believe that they were the best means to elicit reliable information from individuals.
但其次，我不认为它们是从个人那里获取可靠信息的最佳手段。
Yes, some of the individuals who were subjected to enhanced interrogation techniques subsequently provided information that was true and accurate and reliable.
是的，一些接受强化审讯技术的人随后提供了真实、准确和可靠的信息。
They also provided a lot of information that was disinformation as a way to mislead CIA officers.
他们还提供了大量虚假信息，以误导中央情报局官员。
Even when they provided reliable information, there’s no way to know whether or not they would have provided that information sooner or later had they not been subjected to those EITs, enhanced interrogation techniques.
即使他们提供了可靠的信息，也无法知道如果他们没有受到这些强化审讯技术的影响，他们是否迟早会提供该信息。
I do not believe one can make the case, either from a morality standpoint or from an efficacy standpoint, that those types of techniques should be employed.
我认为无论是从道德的角度还是从功效的角度来看，人们都无法证明应该采用这些类型的技术。
Where in the world do they speak the most beautiful Arabic?
世界上哪里的人说着最优美的阿拉伯语？
I’ve studied and forgotten Arabic so many times.
我学过阿拉伯语却忘记了很多次。
I used to be pretty good in the 1980s because I lived in Saudi Arabia, the first time for a couple of years.
我在 20 世纪 80 年代表现得很好，因为我几年来第一次住在沙特阿拉伯。
I also studied in Cairo and then also had a six-month one-on-one tutorial before I went out to Saudi Arabia the first time, so I was pretty good.
我也在开罗学习过，然后在第一次去沙特阿拉伯之前也进行了为期六个月的一对一辅导，所以我还不错。
I have long since lost a lot of the capability that I had.
我早已失去了很多我所拥有的能力。
There are different types of Arabic.
阿拉伯语有不同类型。
When I was in Egypt, that was the first time I learned Arabic, and I really enjoyed the Egyptian Arabic.
当我在埃及时，那是我第一次学习阿拉伯语，我非常喜欢埃及阿拉伯语。
It has a certain dialect and a lot of colloquialisms that I became familiar with.
它有一定的方言和很多我熟悉的口语。
Then in Saudi Arabia in the Gulf, it’s a purer form of Arabic.
然后在海湾的沙特阿拉伯，这是更纯粹的阿拉伯语形式。
If you learn the standard Arabic, then you usually can get by in other countries, but when you start going over to North Africa, where there’s a lot of French that is woven into the Arabic, it becomes much more difficult, and also, their dialect is much more difficult to understand.
如果你学会了标准的阿拉伯语，那么你通常可以在其他国家过得去，但是当你开始去北非时，那里有很多法语融入到阿拉伯语中，这就变得更加困难，而且他们的方言也更加难以理解。
I never did well in North Africa, but in the Gulf and in Egypt, as well as in the Levant area, I could get by.
我在北非的表现一直不好，但在海湾、埃及以及黎凡特地区，我还过得去。
What’s your favorite site in Cairo?
您最喜欢开罗的哪个网站？
For me, it’s the Grand Mosque, but most people would say the pyramids.
对我来说，这是大清真寺，但大多数人会说金字塔。
The Citadel also is beautiful.
城堡也很漂亮。
Tahrir Square — when I was going to school at the American University in Cairo back in the mid-’70s, the AUC campus was in Downtown Cairo by Tahrir Square.
解放广场 ——七十年代中期，当我在开罗美国大学上学时，AUC 校园位于开罗市中心解放广场附近。
Tahir Square was the locus of all the anti-Mubarak activities in terms of the Arab Spring.
塔希尔广场是阿拉伯之春期间所有反穆巴拉克活动的所在地。
There’s something really, really beautiful and attractive about the streets and smells and sounds of Cairo and the people of Downtown Cairo, whether it’s Khan el-Khalili, which is the gold market, or just roaming around the Zamalek or Boulaq and other areas.
开罗的街道、气味和声音以及开罗市中心的人们确实非常非常美丽和有吸引力，无论是汗哈利利黄金市场，还是在扎马雷克或布拉克和其他地区闲逛。
I love Cairo, the architecture, again, the people.
我爱开罗，爱这里的建筑，同样爱这里的人民。
I can’t put my finger on one place except just saying downtown where the American University in Cairo was located.
除了开罗美国大学所在的市中心之外，我无法指出一个地方。
What do you like best in Arabic music?
您最喜欢阿拉伯音乐中的什么？
Well, when I was learning Arabic, and I was listening to Arabic music over there — it’s different, certainly, than our music, but it’s very heartfelt.
嗯，当我学习阿拉伯语时，我在那边听阿拉伯音乐 —— 这当然与我们的音乐不同，但它非常衷心。
Then there usually are stories.
然后通常都会有故事。
And listening to Umm Kulthum, who was the famous Egyptian singer — there was such passion that she brought to it that would make men cry.
听着埃及著名歌手乌姆·库尔苏姆的歌——她的热情足以让男人落泪。
There’s Lebanese music too, which is very good and popular.
还有黎巴嫩音乐，非常好听，也很受欢迎。
My wife and I spent over five years in Saudi Arabia and got a fair amount of time listening to Arabic music, both traditional as well as new wave Arabic.
我和我的妻子在沙特阿拉伯度过了五年多的时间，并花了相当多的时间听阿拉伯音乐，包括传统的和新浪潮的阿拉伯音乐。
As you know, President Trump put his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, in charge of a Middle Eastern peace deal.
如您所知，特朗普总统让他的女婿贾里德·库什纳负责中东和平协议。
This was mocked mercilessly for a long time, yet it seems he came up with something when other people had not before.
这被无情地嘲笑了很久，但他似乎想出了一些别人想不到的东西。
Should we view that as a sign of the bankruptcy of our foreign policy elites, that just some guy determined to do something can cut a deal?
我们是否应该将这视为我们外交政策精英破产的标志，只有一些决心做某事的人才能达成协议？
It’s far from complete, but it does seem better than nothing, right?
它远未完成，但看起来总比没有好，对吧？
Well, I’m glad that there has been an improvement in relations between some key Arab states — the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Sudan on the Arab side — and Israel on the other side.
嗯，我很高兴一些主要阿拉伯国家（阿拉伯方面的阿拉伯联合酋长国、巴林和苏丹）与以色列之间的关系有所改善。
I think this was an effort by the Emiratis and Bahrainis in particular, with the agreement of Saudi Arabia, to give Donald Trump a victory before the election as a way to help him out.
我认为这是阿联酋人和巴林人在沙特阿拉伯同意下做出的努力，目的是让唐纳德·特朗普在大选前取得胜利，以此帮助他摆脱困境。
It formalized some of the ties and relationships that had already existed for a number of years between the UAE, in particular, and Israel, and it brought it up into the public view and surface.
它正式确立了阿联酋（特别是与以色列）之间已经存在多年的一些联系和关系，并将其带入公众视野和表面。
I do not believe that it is something that has helped the cause of peace in terms of settling the Palestinian problem.
我不认为这对解决巴勒斯坦问题的和平事业有帮助。
The Palestinians got absolutely nothing out of this.
巴勒斯坦人绝对没有从中得到任何好处。
Bibi Netanyahu threatened to annex the territory of the West Bank and then agreed to suspend his planned annexation in exchange for this relationship between the Arab states and Israel.
比比·内塔尼亚胡威胁要吞并约旦河西岸领土，然后同意暂停吞并计划，以换取阿拉伯国家与以色列之间的这种关系。
Bibi Netanyahu has been long opposed to a two-state solution.
内塔尼亚胡长期以来一直反对两国解决方案。
I just think that the Palestinian people have been deprived of the very basic human rights and dignity that they deserve for so long.
我只是认为巴勒斯坦人民长期被剥夺了他们应有的最基本的人权和尊严。
And now we have Arab leaders who were basically turning a blind eye to the Palestinian problem, and I think that is very unfortunate.
现在我们的阿拉伯领导人基本上对巴勒斯坦问题视而不见，我认为这是非常不幸的。
The fact that the United States has moved the embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem — it has undermined the United States’s traditional role of playing honest broker between the Arab states and Israel.
美国将大使馆从特拉维夫迁至耶路撒冷这一事实破坏了美国在阿拉伯国家和以色列之间扮演诚实中间人的传统角色。
I think, yes, looking at it just in isolation, it’s good that the UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan have relations with Israel.
我认为，是的，单独来看，阿联酋、巴林和苏丹与以色列建立关系是件好事。
But at the same time, I don’t know whether or not it’s now going to be more difficult or harder to address the Palestinian problem, which is long, long overdue for some type of resolution that, again, does justice to the Palestinian people.
但与此同时，我不知道现在解决巴勒斯坦问题是否会变得更加困难，这个问题早就应该出台某种类型的解决方案，再次为巴勒斯坦人民带来正义。
How much do you think about the much earlier history of the CIA?
您对中央情报局更早的历史有多少看法？
For instance, it came out some while ago that the CIA supported modern art and abstract expressionism.
比如前段时间有消息称，中央情报局支持现代艺术和抽象表现主义。
This was seen as a counterweight to the more communist tradition of mural paintings.
这被视为对更共产主义的壁画传统的平衡。
Do you look back and think, “Gee, that was crazy.
你是否回过头来想：“天啊，那太疯狂了。
We would never do anything like that”?
我们永远不会做那样的事”？
Or do you look back and think, “Well, that made sense for the time, but times change”?
或者你回顾过去会想，“嗯，这在当时是有意义的，但时代在变”？
How do you view the earlier CIA?
您如何看待早期的CIA？
Well, you pointed out one aspect of earlier CIA.
嗯，你指出了早期中央情报局的一个方面。
There’s a lot of other aspects of the early CIA, in terms of toppling regimes and actually shaping developments overseas during the Cold War, when I think Washington really felt we were in an existential challenge and competition with the Soviet Union.
早期中央情报局还有很多其他方面，比如在冷战期间推翻政权和实际塑造海外发展，当时我认为华盛顿确实感到我们面临着与苏联的生存挑战和竞争。
I think United States culture is one of its strongest calling cards around the world, and I do believe that we need to enhance the propagation of our culture — political, social, other.
我认为美国文化是世界上最强大的名片之一，我确实相信我们需要加强我们文化的传播——政治、社会和其他文化。
Unfortunately, I don’t think we have leveraged it enough because even in places like Iran and China and Russia, so many American entertainers and so many aspects of culture really are very much admired and embraced by the populace.
不幸的是，我认为我们没有充分利用它，因为即使在伊朗、中国和俄罗斯这样的地方，如此多的美国艺人和文化的许多方面确实受到民众的钦佩和欢迎。
To the extent that the CIA and the State Department and other organizations can help to extend that culture worldwide, I think all for the better.
如果中央情报局、国务院和其他组织能够帮助在全球范围内推广这种文化，我认为一切都会变得更好。
I think we should be doing more of that rather than trying to conduct these different types of covert operations to change the course of events overseas in ways that usually do not lead to the outcome that we want.
我认为我们应该做更多的事情，而不是试图以通常不会导致我们想要的结果的方式进行这些不同类型的秘密行动来改变海外事件的进程。
There’s a famous Haitian proverb which goes, “The constitution is paper.
海地有一句著名的谚语：“宪法是纸。
The bayonet is steel.” Agree or disagree?
刺刀是钢的。”同意还是不同意？
Well, just from a physical standpoint, if you’re talking about the Constitution as the document, yes, it’s paper.
好吧，仅从物理角度来看，如果您将宪法视为文件，是的，它是纸质的。
But I think the paper embodies what is America, what this great democracy, republic is all about.
但我认为这篇论文体现了美国是什么，这个伟大的民主共和国的全部内容。
And I think the Constitution is the strength of this country, not just because it allows us to continue to grow and prosper as a society, as a nation, but also, it sends a clear signal to countries around the world, at least when it’s adhered to, that the liberal democratic order and the fact that we are a country and a government anchored in law and the Constitution.
我认为宪法是这个国家的力量，不仅因为它使我们作为一个社会、一个国家能够继续发展和繁荣，而且它向世界各国发出了一个明确的信号，至少在遵守它的情况下，自由民主秩序以及我们是一个以法律和宪法为基础的国家和政府这一事实。
I think that’s a very powerful signal that we’ve used over the course, certainly, of the last 75 years.
我认为这是一个非常有力的信号，当然，在过去 75 年里我们一直在使用它。
Unfortunately, the bayonet sometimes has been necessary — certainly, World War II and some other times.
不幸的是，刺刀有时是必要的——当然，在第二次世界大战和其他一些时候。
The bayonet frequently is used in order to deal with an urgent crisis.
刺刀经常被用来应对紧急危机。
I think the bayonet should be used only when the problem cannot be addressed in other ways.
我认为只有当问题无法通过其他方式解决时才应该使用刺刀。
Sometimes the bayonet is opted for too quickly when there are other means to address problems.
有时，当有其他方法可以解决问题时，就会过快地选择刺刀。
Why did Jack Ruby kill Lee Harvey Oswald?
杰克·鲁比为什么要杀李·哈维·奥斯瓦尔德？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I’ve read different summaries.
我读过不同的摘要。
I’m reading the new JFK book by Frederick Logevall.
我正在读弗雷德里克·洛格瓦尔写的新书《肯尼迪》。
That was during the earlier Kennedy years.
那是在肯尼迪早期时期。
But there are some things that I think are going to remain mysteries.
但我认为有些事情仍然是个谜。
Why did Lee Harvey Oswald shoot John F.
李·哈维·奥斯瓦尔德为何射杀约翰·F·肯尼迪
Kennedy?
肯尼迪？
We can speculate, and there are things that have been written and said about it, but who knows what evil lurks in the hearts of man?
我们可以推测，也有一些关于它的记载和说法，但谁知道人心中潜藏着什么邪恶呢？
But if you just view it in Bayesian terms, it seems to me, well, that was a long time ago, and there’s been no deathbed confession for any conspiracy, so isn’t the rational view that it wasn’t much of a conspiracy at all?
但如果你只是从贝叶斯的角度来看，在我看来，嗯，那是很久以前的事了，而且没有人临终前承认有任何阴谋，所以理性的观点难道不是认为这根本不是一个阴谋吗？
Or does that reasoning not carry much weight with you?
或者这个推理对你来说没有多大意义？
I think the reasoning carries some weight, certainly.
我认为这个推理当然有一定的分量。
I don’t believe Ruby was part of a conspiracy.
我不相信鲁比是阴谋的一部分。
I have read and heard and talked about things that might have led Lee Harvey Oswald to shoot Kennedy, that may have involved other antagonists.
我读过、听到过、谈论过可能导致李·哈维·奥斯瓦尔德枪杀肯尼迪的事情，这些事情可能还涉及其他对手。
But I don’t believe Ruby was knowingly part of a conspiracy to try to snuff out Lee Harvey so he wouldn’t spill the beans.
但我不认为鲁比故意参与阴谋，试图扼杀李·哈维，以免他泄露秘密。
I do think he was just reacting, but that’s just my assessment.
我确实认为他只是做出反应，但这只是我的评估。
Before this most recent presidential election, the national security experts I know all spoke to me about how worried they were about foreign interference in our election.
在最近一次总统选举之前，我认识的国家安全专家都向我表示，他们对外国干涉我们的选举感到多么担忧。
Yet, we held the election, and as far as we can tell, or as far as I can tell, it seems foreign interference has been absolutely minimal, arguably even zero.
然而，我们举行了选举，据我们所知，或者据我所知，外国干预似乎绝对是最小的，可以说甚至为零。
What happened or what changed?
发生了什么或者发生了什么变化？
Why did all the experts get this wrong?
为什么所有专家都犯了这个错误？
I read hundreds of mainstream media articles about forthcoming foreign interference.
我阅读了数百篇关于即将到来的外国干涉的主流媒体文章。
They all cited experts.
他们都引用了专家的话。
Where is it?
它在哪里？
No one’s talking about it.
没有人在谈论它。
Well, I think it’s still unclear how much the interference was.
嗯，我认为目前还不清楚干扰有多大。
The impact probably was less than a lot of people anticipated, but I think there’s no doubt that Russia and China, Iran, other countries try to use the social media environment to push out their narratives that they wanted to influence the minds and the votes of American citizens.
影响可能比很多人预期的要小，但我认为毫无疑问，俄罗斯、中国、伊朗和其他国家试图利用社交媒体环境来传播他们想要影响美国公民的思想和选票的言论。
I think this past election, the social media environment, as well as just the regular information environment, was just so overloaded with so much misinformation and disinformation, it was hard to maybe distinguish what was coming from abroad that was inaccurate and disinformation, and what was coming from domestic sources.
我认为过去的选举、社交媒体环境以及常规信息环境都充斥着如此多的错误信息和虚假信息，很难区分哪些是来自国外的不准确和虚假信息，哪些是来自国内。
And I think this is almost going to be a feature in the future.
我认为这几乎将成为未来的一个功能。
Now, I do think that the US cyber experts in FBI, NSA, CIA, Homeland Security did a good job of trying to ensure that there were no technical intrusions that really would be significant.
现在，我确实认为联邦调查局、国家安全局、中央情报局、国土安全部的美国网络专家在努力确保不存在真正重大的技术入侵方面做得很好。
They learned some lessons over the last four years, certainly from the 2016 election.
他们在过去四年中吸取了一些教训，尤其是从 2016 年大选中吸取的教训。
I think we were better prepared to prevent those types of technical intrusions that we were certainly worried about.
我认为我们已经做好了更好的准备来防止我们确实担心的那些类型的技术入侵。
The influence operations in that digital environment, in particular, I think were still quite evident.
我认为，特别是在数字环境中的影响力运作仍然相当明显。
I have a few questions about popular culture: movies and TV, books.
我有几个关于流行文化的问题：电影、电视、书籍。
John le Carré.
约翰·勒卡雷.
What does he get right and get wrong?
他做对了什么，做错了什么？
He’s written so many books, and he’s gotten so many things right, but he also, I think, intentionally tries to change some facts and realities.
他写了很多书，也做了很多正确的事情，但我认为，他也有意试图改变一些事实和现实。
He has a tremendous ability to give individuals a sense of just the meticulousness and the detailed steps that need to be taken in order to carry out espionage operations and how things usually take months, if not years sometimes, for things to develop and evolve.
他具有巨大的能力，可以让人们了解进行间谍活动所需采取的细致和详细步骤，以及事情通常需要数月甚至数年的时间才能发展和演变。
In intelligence, patience really is a virtue, and frequently, you want to get things sooner.
在智力方面，耐心确实是一种美德，而且你常常希望更快地得到东西。
For example, the recruitment of sources — it can take years.
例如，招募资源——可能需要数年时间。
It can be several case officers who are going to cultivate the relationship before someone is formally recruited, and then when those assets start to give really consequential intelligence to their handlers.
在正式招募某人之前，可能会有几名案件官员来培养这种关系，然后当这些资产开始向他们的处理者提供真正重要的情报时。
And he understands that good spies are often introverts.
他也明白，优秀的间谍往往都是内向的人。
That’s one thing I take away from his books.
这是我从他的书中学到的一件事。
Well, they are and they’re not.
嗯，他们是，又不是。
One of the reasons why I got out of operations is because I think I was too much of an introvert.
我退出运营的原因之一是因为我认为我太内向了。
I wouldn’t go into a cocktail party and try to talk up people and chat them up and try to cultivate a relationship.
我不会去参加鸡尾酒会并试图与人们交谈并与他们搭讪并试图建立一种关系。
That really requires an extroverted personality.
这确实需要外向的性格。
But then, you need to go back into your cocoon.
但接下来，你需要回到你的茧中。
You adopt certain personas when you’re out, but then when you get back into the CIA station or headquarters, whatever else, you really need to shield yourself from that type of outside scrutiny or being uncovered.
当你外出时，你会采用某些角色，但当你回到中央情报局车站或总部时，无论如何，你真的需要保护自己免受这种类型的外部审查或被发现。
It takes a person with almost a schizophrenic approach to life.
这需要一个近乎精神分裂的人的生活方式。
Have you ever met a spy and thought he or she is just like James Bond?
您是否遇到过间谍并认为他或她就像詹姆斯·邦德一样？
Or is that completely absurd, out of the picture?
或者这完全是荒谬的、不合实际的？
I’ve met a lot of CIA officers over the years who have reminded me of James Bond.
多年来，我遇到了很多中央情报局官员，他们让我想起了詹姆斯·邦德。
Sometimes they’re very calm, cool, debonair, slick.
有时他们非常冷静、冷静、温文尔雅、圆滑。
These really seem to fit that bill.
这些似乎确实符合这个要求。
But if you want to have a CIA case officer go out and be a successful recruiter of spies, you don’t want to have someone who’s going to stand out in the crowd because then they’ll draw the attention of local security or intelligence officials.
但如果你想让中央情报局的案件官员出去并成为一名成功的间谍招募者，你就不会想要一个在人群中脱颖而出的人，因为那样他们会引起当地安全或情报官员的注意。
You want someone who’s going to be able to blend in, someone who’s not going to be seen as someone to be concerned about.
你想要一个能够融入其中的人，一个不会被视为值得关心的人。
We hire all different types of individuals.
我们雇用各种不同类型的个人。
Even though at one point, my Arabic was okay, was pretty good, if I was to wander among the tribes of Saudi Arabia, or in the souks of Damascus, or in the streets of Cairo, I still looked like an American, a westerner.
尽管在某一时刻，我的阿拉伯语还可以，相当不错，但如果我要在沙特阿拉伯的部落中漫步，或者在大马士革的露天市场，或者在开罗的街道上，我看起来仍然像一个美国人，一个西方人。
From Hudson County.
来自哈德逊县。
Yes.
是的。
You really want to be able to have individuals with diverse backgrounds and experiences so that they can, in fact, blend into the local environments.
您确实希望能够拥有具有不同背景和经验的个人，以便他们实际上能够融入当地环境。
Other than being overly dramatized, what is it the TV show The Americans got right and wrong about Soviet spying here in the 1980s?
除了过于戏剧化之外，电视剧《美国人》对 20 世纪 80 年代苏联间谍活动的判断是对还是错？
People have asked me a lot about The Americans, as well as Homeland.
人们问了我很多关于《美国人》和《国土安全》的问题。
I’ve never watched them.
我从来没有看过他们。
I live the intelligence business.
我从事情报工作。
Then I heard that Homeland — in one of the episodes, they blew up CIA headquarters, and I vowed never to watch.
然后我听说国土安全——在其中一集中，他们炸毁了中央情报局总部，我发誓永远不会看。
Anytime I’ve seen a little snippet or footage of it, a lot of times, they really exaggerate the technical capabilities of the CIA and intelligence community.
每当我看到其中的一个小片段或镜头时，很多时候，他们确实夸大了中央情报局和情报界的技术能力。
But sometimes, science fiction gives birth to intelligence initiatives and, I think, vice versa.
但有时，科幻小说会催生情报倡议，我认为，反之亦然。
The Americans was based on a real-life story when the Russians had secreted into the United States 10 or 11 illegals, as they’re called, to burrow into American society and adopt American personas.
《美国谍梦》根据真实故事改编，当时俄罗斯人向美国秘密潜入了 10 名或 11 名非法移民，他们被称为“非法移民”，目的是打入美国社会并采用美国人的形象。
I was at the White House at the time.
当时我在白宫。
I was President Obama’s current terrorism adviser and was intimately involved in that.
我是奥巴马总统现任的恐怖主义顾问，并密切参与其中。
It was a really, really interesting and exciting period of time.
那是一段非常非常有趣和令人兴奋的时期。
My understanding, based on people who have watched The Americans, say it’s very good, and it gives a good reflection of what the reality was like.
我的理解是，看过《美国人》的人都说很好，很好地反映了现实。
I have a few policy questions for you.
我有几个政策问题要问你。
Given that the risk of America having what you might call an idiosyncratic president seems to be higher as of late and perhaps is higher for the future going forward, do you think that makes a case for the CIA being less powerful or more powerful as that risk rises?
考虑到美国出现一位你所谓的特殊总统的风险最近似乎更高，而且未来的风险可能更高，你认为随着风险的上升，中央情报局的权力是否会减弱或增强？
CIA’s power derives from its legislative authorities, the statutory authorities.
中央情报局的权力来自其立法机关，即法定机关。
But any bureaucracy has some autonomy, right?
但任何官僚机构都有一定的自主权，对吗？
They do, and I think some of it takes on — as you’re pointing out — the temperament of the commander-in-chief, the chief executive.
他们确实如此，而且我认为其中一些表现出 ——“正如你所指出的”—— 总司令、首席执行官的气质。
But all CIA covert action programs, for example, have to be authorized in very explicit writing by a president of the United States.
但例如，所有中央情报局的秘密行动计划都必须得到美国总统以非常明确的书面形式授权。
The more aggressive a president might be on the foreign front, and the more that he or she would want the CIA to be involved, the CIA will be involved.
总统在外交方面越激进，他或她越希望中央情报局介入，中央情报局就会介入。
But I do think that the CIA needs to stick with its traditional mission, which is to acquire clandestinely acquired intelligence that matters to US national security, whether it be human sources or technical collection.
但我确实认为中央情报局需要坚持其传统使命，即秘密获取对美国国家安全至关重要的情报，无论是人力资源还是技术收集。
It needs to carry out the counterintelligence activities to protect our secrets from foreign interference or intrusion.
它需要开展反情报活动，以保护我们的秘密免受外国干涉或入侵。
It needs to engage with foreign liaison services so that we’re able to benefit from their capabilities and information gathering.
它需要与外国联络部门合作，以便我们能够从他们的能力和信息收集中受益。
It needs to conduct all source analysis so that we gain the benefit of the insights that we get from liaison, from clandestinely acquired sources, and so on.
它需要进行所有来源分析，以便我们从联络、秘密获取的来源等中获得的见解中获益。
The more the CIA is pushed into the paramilitary, the more military-like activities, I think the more trouble the CIA will get into.
中央情报局越是被推向准军事化，类似军事的活动越多，我认为中央情报局陷入的麻烦就越多。
What changes would you make to congressional oversight of the intelligence community?
您将对国会对情报界的监督做出哪些改变？
The congressional oversight committees came into existence after the Church and Pike committees in the ’70s, when a lot of the atrocities that the CIA was involved in, quite frankly, were uncovered.
国会监督委员会是在 70 年代的丘奇委员会和派克委员会之后成立的，坦率地说，当时中央情报局参与的许多暴行都被揭露了。
For the first 20 years or so — even longer — the members of the oversight committees, Republican and Democrat, would put their party affiliation outside the door when they conducted those oversight activities.
在最初的 20 年左右——“甚至更长”——监督委员会的成员，无论是共和党还是民主党，在进行这些监督活动时都会将自己的党派关系排除在外。
Unfortunately, over the last 15 years or so, I see more and more partisanship going on inside of those committees.
不幸的是，在过去 15 年左右的时间里，我看到这些委员会内部的党派之争越来越严重。
If there’s any way that there can be going back to a bipartisan approach to intelligence, national security oversight, I would strongly recommend it.
如果有什么办法可以回归两党在情报、国家安全监督方面的做法，我会强烈推荐它。
Right now, the House Intelligence Committee is just fractured beyond any type of reasonable work they can do.
目前，众议院情报委员会已经支离破碎，无法开展任何类型的合理工作。
Fortunately, I think the Senate has stayed together, but there’s still a lot of partisanship, and it needs to rid itself of that.
幸运的是，我认为参议院一直保持团结，但仍然存在很多党派之争，它需要消除它。
The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act set up courts to oversee decisions about wiretapping and citizen loss of privacy.
《外国情报监视法》设立了法院来监督有关窃听和公民隐私丧失的决定。
How would you change that system, if at all?
如果要改变的话，你会如何改变这个系统？
When I was at CIA, I really didn’t have to get involved in the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act — FISA — applications programs.
当我在中央情报局时，我确实没有必要参与《外国情报监视法》——《外国情报监视法》——《应用程序》。
This is something that the FBI was involved in and because —
这是联邦调查局参与的事情，因为 ——
But you know a lot about it?
但你对此了解很多吗？
How would you improve the system?
您将如何改进该系统？
There have been a number of revelations as a result of the investigations that have gone on about the Russian investigation, revealing that there was not the type of rigor and the checking and double-checking of the information that goes into the FISA applications.
俄罗斯调查的结果显示，FISA 申请中的信息并不严格，也没有经过检查和复核。
Without totally overhauling the system, I think there can be a way to ensure better accuracy of information that goes into them.
在不彻底检修系统的情况下，我认为可以有一种方法来确保输入的信息更加准确。
A FISA application may be approved one day, and then 30 days or 60 days later, it’ll be re-upped.
FISA 申请可能会在一天获得批准，然后 30 天或 60 天后，就会重新批准。
I think it’s incumbent on the Bureau or the ones that are pushing the FISA to ensure that any new information that has been acquired in that time, or known, needs to be incorporated into that FISA, as well as a review of the existing basis for that FISA needs to be scrutinized.
我认为，主管局或推动 FISA 的机构有责任确保当时获得的或已知的任何新信息都需要纳入该 FISA，并且需要仔细审查对该 FISA 现有基础的审查。
I just think greater rigor in ensuring that, again, accuracy prevails throughout the process.
我只是认为需要更加严格地确保整个过程的准确性。
A major foreign power hacked into an OPM database in, I think, 2015.
我认为是在 2015 年，一个主要外国势力入侵了 OPM 数据库。
Is it harder today to hack again into OPM or to hack into Facebook?
今天再次侵入 OPM 或侵入 Facebook 是否更难？
Which is better protected?
哪个保护得更好？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
I know OPM has done some things, but some US government systems or legacy systems — trying to transform them and transition to new, updated, and less vulnerable systems takes time, effort, and lots of money.
我知道 OPM 已经做了一些事情，但是一些美国政府系统或遗留系统 ——试图对其进行改造并过渡到新的、更新的、不易受攻击的系统需要时间、精力和大量资金。
Facebook — it has loads of money, but also, I don’t know how concerned it is about ensuring that there are no vulnerabilities in the system that can be exploited by actors, either domestic or foreign.
Facebook ——它拥有大量资金，但我不知道它有多关心确保系统中不存在可供国内外行为者利用的漏洞。
I think this is a challenge for the public, private, and not-for-profit sectors in the coming decades.
我认为这对未来几十年的公共、私营和非营利部门来说都是一个挑战。
How are you going to ensure that your data is going to be protected, while at the same time making sure that it’s available so that you can leverage it the way it’s designed to be used?
您将如何确保您的数据受到保护，同时确保数据可用，以便您可以按照设计的方式利用它？
As you know, Bob Gates has argued that the director of National Intelligence position has some problems.
如你所知，鲍勃·盖茨曾辩称国家情报总监的职位存在一些问题。
It creates a new bureaucracy.
它创造了一个新的官僚机构。
If you were to look at the flow chart of the post-9/11 US intelligence community, it seems to be a highly complex nightmare.
如果你看一下9/11后美国情报界的流程图，这似乎是一场高度复杂的噩梦。
Is that just the way things have to work?
难道事情就必须这样进行吗？
Should it actually be that way?
实际上应该是这样吗？
Do we need to simplify?
我们需要简化吗？
Are there too many positions?
是不是职位太多了？
Are there too many chefs in the kitchen?
厨房里的厨师太多了吗？
What’s your view?
你的看法是什么？
Well, the intelligence community of 2020 is the legacy of many, many years, decades of intelligence agencies that have grown up and have evolved and have adapted to the new realities.
嗯，2020 年的情报界是许多、许多年、几十年的情报机构的遗产，这些机构已经成长、发展并适应了新的现实。
Unfortunately, over time, there has not been as much of an effort to try to better integrate those agencies and authorities and capabilities, as well as to ensure that they are complementary as opposed to unnecessarily redundant.
不幸的是，随着时间的推移，并没有做出太多努力来尝试更好地整合这些机构、当局和能力，并确保它们是互补的，而不是不必要的冗余。
I disagree with Bob Gates.
我不同意鲍勃·盖茨的观点。
I do believe that the office of director of National Intelligence needs to be looked at afresh after 16 years in existence.
我确实认为国家情报总监办公室成立16年后需要重新审视。
Some modifications need to be made, but as CIA director, the last thing I wanted was to have to be CIA director and the director of the intelligence community writ large — 17 agencies.
需要做出一些修改，但作为中央情报局局长，我最不想做的就是成为中央情报局局长和情报界的主管——17个机构。
There’s more than enough to keep the director of CIA busy.
这些事情足以让中央情报局局长忙个不停。
However, I do think that that orchestration function of the director of National Intelligence can be refined and modified to try to push the intelligence community in a direction that sheds some of those unfortunate legacy practices that are a drag on the system and to better integrate capabilities to make the US intelligence community much more effective.
然而，我确实认为，国家情报总监的协调职能可以得到完善和修改，以试图推动情报界朝着摆脱一些拖累系统的不幸的遗留做法的方向发展，并更好地整合能力，使美国情报界更加有效。
Is 17 intelligence agencies too many or too few?
17个情报机构是太多还是太少？
Depends on who you ask.
取决于你问的是谁。
I’m asking you.
我问你。
I think it’s too many.
我觉得太多了。
There are some of those intelligence agencies that are very specific to organizations.
有些情报机构是专门针对组织的。
For example, there’s the Marine intelligence, there’s Navy intelligence, there’s Army intelligence, and some service their own organizations.
例如，有海军陆战队情报、海军情报、陆军情报，还有一些为自己的组织服务。
There’re the national agencies, such as NSA and CIA and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency.
有国家机构，例如国家安全局和中央情报局以及国家地理空间情报局。
I do think it would be worthwhile to see whether or not some of those individual intelligence agencies that are embedded, for example, in the State Department — INR it’s called, Intelligence and Research — whether or not that intelligence requirement of the State Department can be better serviced by a broader intelligence community effort.
我确实认为，值得看看是否有一些嵌入国务院的个别情报机构 ——“INR，它被称为情报和研究”—— 更广泛的情报界努力是否可以更好地满足国务院的情报需求。
That’s why I do think it’s worthwhile to take a fresh look at the constellation that exists right now.
这就是为什么我确实认为值得重新审视现在存在的星座。
Very last question.
最后一个问题。
What is it that you know about Donald Trump that the rest of us do not?
关于唐纳德·特朗普，您了解什么是我们其他人不知道的？
Well, if there is anything I know about him, I’m certainly not going to share it with you and your audience today.
好吧，如果我对他有什么了解，我今天肯定不会与您和您的观众分享。
I still find it difficult to understand how so many Americans still believe what he says.
我仍然很难理解为什么这么多美国人仍然相信他所说的话。
His life is just one lie after another, unfortunately, and he’s been masterful as far as capitalizing on this craving in the United States to believe in someone who is going to lead them, this country, out of the problems that they see.
不幸的是，他的生活只是一个又一个谎言，而他巧妙地利用了美国的这种渴望，相信有人会领导他们，这个国家，摆脱他们所看到的问题。
I think Donald Trump is pretty transparent as far as who he is and the types of things that he holds dear, and what he holds dear is himself, first and foremost.
我认为唐纳德·特朗普对于他是谁以及他所珍视的事物类型是相当透明的，而他所珍视的首先是他自己。
I’m not going to share anything else today that I might know or assume.
今天我不会分享任何我可能知道或假设的事情。
John Brennan, thank you very much.
约翰·布伦南，非常感谢你。
Again, John’s new book is called Undaunted: My Fight against America’s Enemies, at Home and Abroad.
同样，约翰的新书名为《无畏：我与美国国内外敌人的斗争》。
Thank you, John.
谢谢你，约翰。
Thank you so much, Tyler.
非常感谢你，泰勒。
I appreciate it.
我很感激。