John Arnold on Trading, Energy, and Evidence-Based Philanthropy (Ep. 244)
Thanks to listener an anonymous listener for sponsoring this transcript.
感谢听众一位匿名听众赞助这份文字记录。
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today, I’m here with John Arnold.
今天，我和约翰·阿诺德在一起。
John is arguably the greatest energy trader in all of world history.
约翰可以说是世界历史上最伟大的能源交易商。
In 2007, he became known as America’s youngest billionaire.
2007年，他成为美国最年轻的亿万富翁。
These days, working with his wife, Laura, he does Arnold Ventures, where we’re sitting right now.
如今，他与妻子劳拉 (Laura) 一起创立了阿诺德风险投资公司 (Arnold Ventures)，也就是我们现在所在的公司。
Arnold Ventures is one of the most important and influential voices and actors in philanthropy.
阿诺德风险投资公司是慈善事业中最重要和最有影响力的声音和参与者之一。
John has done much more.
约翰做了更多的事情。
That’s just a brief outline.
这只是一个简短的概述。
John, welcome.
约翰，欢迎。
Oh, thank you for that intro, and great to be here.
哦，谢谢你的介绍，很高兴来到这里。
Your days as an energy trader — do you think you were especially good at trading at the close, or you didn’t like doing that?
您作为能源交易员的日子 — 您认为自己特别擅长收盘交易，还是不喜欢这样做？
There was always an imbalance on the close.
收盘时总是存在不平衡。
If you could sense what it was, whether it was imbalance for buyers or imbalance for sellers, it definitely offered an opportunity.
如果你能感觉到它是什么，无论是买家的不平衡还是卖家的不平衡，这绝对提供了一个机会。
The close set the index for the day as to the starting point for the next day.
收盘价将当天的指数设定为第二天的起点。
It was particularly important, but I don’t think there was anything necessarily profitable about it besides a little bit around the edges.
这一点特别重要，但我认为除了一点点边缘之外，它不一定能带来任何利润。
But sensing that imbalance, what do you feel is the skill you had that your other traders didn’t have to the same degree?
但当你感觉到这种不平衡时，你认为你所拥有的其他交易者所不具备的技能是什么？
I’ve always had a difficult time answering this question.
我一直很难回答这个问题。
I think part of it is, trading is a team sport for sure.
我认为部分原因是，交易肯定是一项团队运动。
I always took the view of my personality is got to either be around or get around smarter people, and listen more than talk.
我一直认为我的性格就是要么和更聪明的人在一起，要么和更聪明的人打交道，多听多说。
That’s certainly my personality.
这当然是我的个性。
In terms of traits, here’s what I would offer as my traits.
就特质而言，以下是我要提供的特质。
Number one is this detachment from emotion.
第一是脱离情感。
There’s a lot of talk about fear and greed driving markets.
关于恐惧和贪婪驱动市场的讨论很多。
To the extent that fear and greed change your process, the more you can remove those emotions, I think, the better.
如果恐惧和贪婪改变了你的过程，我认为你越能消除这些情绪就越好。
I think there is a component of first principles trading, where first principles of how you look at information.
我认为交易的第一原则中有一个组成部分，即如何看待信息的第一原则。
Don’t accept the information as is, but really test all assumptions that go into it.
不要按原样接受信息，而要真正测试其中的所有假设。
I think there is a component of being on the perfect point of the confidence spectrum.
我认为处于置信谱的完美点上有一个组成部分。
You have to be confident in order to say the market is wrong, and I’m right, that other people are wrong, because I think efficient market hypothesis is fairly true.
你必须有信心才能说市场是错误的，而我是对的，而其他人是错误的，因为我认为有效市场假说是相当正确的。
But if you’re overconfident, you’ll blow up quickly.
但如果你过于自信，你很快就会崩溃。
There is this notion of being quantitative enough to build the long-term models, but being quick with numbers in order to jump on the trades as they happen.
有这样一种概念，即足够定量来建立长期模型，但要快速处理数字，以便在交易发生时立即进行交易。
There’s this aspect of, I think, a chip on my shoulder that kind of goes back to —
我认为，我肩上的不满可以追溯到 ——
Feeling you can do it better.
感觉自己可以做得更好。
Actually, it goes back to my life before my professional life.
事实上，这可以追溯到我职业生涯之前的生活。
I always had this chip on my shoulder.
我的肩上一直挂着这个筹码。
Then really having this passion for it.
然后真正对此产生热情。
You have to have the love of it, that this is the most important thing.
你必须热爱它，这是最重要的。
I ate, breathed, and slept it.
我吃它、呼吸它、睡它。
I would be thinking about it first thing in the shower in the morning.
我早上洗澡时第一件事就是考虑这个问题。
I would be dreaming about it.
我会梦见它。
After work, I’d go out with people in the industry and talk about it.
下班后，我会和业内人士一起出去讨论这个问题。
It was that real devotion to the markets.
这就是对市场的真正奉献。
I think there was a timing component, that I always had great timing in my career.
我认为有一个时机因素，在我的职业生涯中我总是拥有很好的时机。
Then, certainly, luck’s a part of it.
那么，当然，运气也是其中的一部分。
But an interesting feature of your career is, you walked away from all of this more or less at the top of your performance.
但你职业生涯中一个有趣的特点是，你在业绩达到顶峰时或多或少地摆脱了这一切。
If you’re so wrapped up in it, what’s your own model of yourself for how you could both walk away from it and be so wrapped up in it?
如果你如此沉迷其中，那么你自己的模型是什么，你如何才能既摆脱它又如此沉迷其中？
Part of it was, I started to become less wrapped up in it.
部分原因是，我开始不再那么沉迷其中。
I started in energy trading at age 21 and did it for 17 years.
我从 21 岁开始从事能源交易，一干就是 17 年。
The first 14 years of that — that was the eating, sleeping, breathing it.
头14年——就是吃饭、睡觉、呼吸。
Then years 15 and 16, I started to feel that the end is coming at some point.
然后到了 15 岁和 16 岁的时候，我开始感觉到末日即将在某个时候到来。
By year 17, I didn’t enjoy the game anymore.
到了17岁，我不再喜欢这个游戏了。
I could feel like if your drive, if your passion isn’t there, that you weren’t going to be successful.
我觉得如果你没有动力、没有激情，你就不会成功。
That was part of the reason for stepping away.
这是离开的部分原因。
It coincided with a time when I’d gotten married.
恰逢我结婚的时候。
I had kids, started to get more love over for family and the spouse.
我有了孩子，开始对家庭和配偶产生更多的爱。
The markets had changed.
市场发生了变化。
The shale revolution had come in, and you had a market that was, by its nature, extremely volatile.
页岩革命已经到来，市场本质上极其不稳定。
That go-to one that was bouncing around marginal cost to produce as the natural gas became oversupplied, so the opportunity was very different.
随着天然气供应过剩，生产边际成本不断波动，因此机会非常不同。
Then I was starting to spend an hour or two in the afternoons with our foundation work, and that started to suck some of my energy out.
然后我开始在下午花一两个小时进行基础工作，这开始消耗我的一些精力。
I started to become more interested in those questions rather than in energy trading.
我开始对这些问题比对能源交易更感兴趣。
Part of my career and part of the success, I think, was that the business plan I developed was to be an inch wide and a mile deep in this.
我认为，我的职业生涯和成功的一部分是我制定的商业计划是一英寸宽和一英里深。
It was, find this niche and try to be best in the world at it.
就是找到这个利基市场并努力做到世界上最好的。
Don’t expand the focus.
不要扩大焦点。
It was North American Gas and Power.
这是北美天然气和电力公司。
At some point, LNG started to become relevant and put a small team in Europe, but mostly for information flow for the North American Gas and Power group.
在某个时候，液化天然气开始变得重要，并在欧洲设立了一个小团队，但主要负责北美天然气和电力集团的信息流。
There were numerous opportunities to get into oil, to get into metals, or agriculture.
有很多机会进入石油、金属或农业领域。
Or start trading energy equities, for instance.
例如，或者开始交易能源股票。
Every time I considered it, but, stick with the niche and just focus here.
每次我都会考虑这一点，但是，坚持利基市场并专注于此。
I think the upside was, if we were successful with that, if that plan worked, and we were best in the world, it was going to be enormously profitable.
我认为好处是，如果我们成功了，如果这个计划有效，并且我们是世界上最好的，那么它将带来巨大的利润。
The downside is that the intellectual curiosity starts to sag.
缺点是求知欲开始下降。
You’re just going in —
你只要进去 ——
After 17 years, but not in year 13.
17年后，但不是13年。
Yes.
是的。
Again, part of it was the market opportunity.
同样，部分原因是市场机会。
Part of it was my financial situation had changed so much, the personal situation.
部分原因是我的财务状况和个人状况发生了很大变化。
Oh, this whole combination thing, the regulatory situation had changed.
哦，整个组合的事情，监管情况已经改变了。
In your niche, do you think the skills needed to be a commodities trader, in particular, are different from other kinds of trading?
在您的利基市场中，您认为大宗商品交易员所需的技能与其他类型的交易有何不同？
Or it’s just the same?
或者只是一样？
I think it’s pretty similar.
我认为非常相似。
One of the great things about the natural gas industry for a long time — and it’s still largely true now — is it was a closed system.
长期以来，天然气行业的一大伟大之处在于它是一个封闭的系统，现在仍然如此。
You could figure it out.
你可以弄清楚的。
It also had this forcing mechanism twice a year.
这种强制机制每年还会有两次。
The fundamentals had to align with price more or less twice a year — at the end of the injection season and end of the withdrawal season of gas.
基本面必须每年或多或少两次与价格保持一致——在天然气注入季节结束时和天然气退出季节结束时。
So, where price could deviate away from fundamentals for a time period, it had to come back at a certain time.
因此，如果价格可能在一段时间内偏离基本面，它就必须在某个特定时间回归。
It was a system that was conducive to being modeled.
这是一个有利于建模的系统。
Apply smart trading on top of that, and it created a lot of opportunity.
在此基础上应用智能交易，它创造了很多机会。
On Vanderbilt and Enron
关于范德比尔特和安然
Why did you go to Vanderbilt?
你为什么去范德比尔特？
I was always smart, but not motivated in school.
我一直很聪明，但在学校没有积极性。
I was interested in other things.
我对其他事情感兴趣。
Like sports?
喜欢运动？
Like sports, business.
喜欢运动、商业。
I had this baseball card business from an early age that was pretty successful.
我从小就经营棒球卡生意，非常成功。
I was just interested in different things and wasn’t interested in academics.
我只是对不同的事物感兴趣，对学术不感兴趣。
I always did enough work to get the A- in school, but I thought I was really smart.
我总是在学校做足够的功课才能获得 A-，但我认为我真的很聪明。
I was winning math competitions, but my grade in math class wasn’t the best.
我在数学比赛中获胜，但我在数学课上的成绩并不是最好的。
Schools don’t like that.
学校不喜欢这样。
Yes.
是的。
I applied to a number of Ivy League schools, thinking that was the right fit for me, and got rejected by all of them.
我申请了一些常春藤盟校，认为这最适合我，但都被拒绝了。
Then it was like, “Uh-oh, what do I do?” I really wanted to go to the Northeast.
然后就像是，“哦，我该怎么办？”我真的很想去东北。
This had its origins in my interest in business, my interest in really making money.
这源于我对商业的兴趣，我对真正赚钱的兴趣。
I remember telling my parents that when they would ask, “What do you want to be?” I’d say, “I want to be a millionaire.” They’re like, “That’s not a job.
我记得我告诉我的父母，当他们问：“你想成为什么？”我会说：“我想成为百万富翁。”他们会说：“这不是一份工作。
You’ve got to go learn a business, learn a skill set to become a millionaire.” “No, I want to be a millionaire.”
你必须去学习一门生意，学习一套技能才能成为百万富翁。” “不，我想成为百万富翁。”
In 1989, the book, Liar’s Poker, comes out.
1989年，《说谎者的扑克》一书出版。
You read the book and you love it, right?
你读过这本书并且喜欢它，对吗？
I read the book and I loved it.
我读了这本书并且很喜欢它。
The famous phrase in there is “equities in Dallas.” That’s Siberia in the finance industry, and here I am.
其中著名的短语是“达拉斯的股票”。那是金融业的西伯利亚，而我就在这里。
I’m growing up in Dallas.
我在达拉斯长大。
Two things were, I’ve got to get in this game.
有两件事是，我必须参加这场比赛。
This is where the most competitive, the most fun game is.
这就是最具竞争力、最好玩的游戏所在。
It’s New York, it’s not in Dallas.
这是纽约，不是达拉斯。
I’ve got to head up to the Northeast, and I wanted to do that going into college.
我必须去东北，我想在上大学时也这么做。
I didn’t have that opportunity, and Vanderbilt ended up being the best place I got into.
我没有这样的机会，范德比尔特最终成为我进入的最好的地方。
At the time, it was a very different school.
当时，这是一所非常不同的学校。
It was much more of a regional college at the time.
当时它更像是一所地区学院。
I remember when I applied, I think the acceptance rate was 44 percent.
我记得我申请的时候，录取率是44%。
Incredible.
极好的。
Now, Ken Rogoff, who’s now an economist — he still misses playing chess, though that was decades ago for him.
现在，肯·罗格夫（Ken Rogoff）现在是一名经济学家，他仍然怀念下棋的日子，尽管那对他来说已经是几十年前的事了。
Do you still miss trading, and sometimes you’ll wake up and you’ll be thinking, “What’s my trade?” Or it’s just over?
您是否仍然怀念交易，有时您醒来时会想：“我的交易是什么？”还是刚刚结束？
My big fear when I stepped away was, will I find something else?
当我离开时，我最担心的是，我会找到别的东西吗？
Or will I want to go back?
或者我想回去吗？
But you have.
但你有。
And I have.
我有。
That was the very pleasant surprise because I had seen a number of people who stepped away because they were burnt out, because they wanted to go do something else, and not find something of passion outside of trading and go back to it.
这是一个非常令人惊喜的惊喜，因为我见过很多人因为精疲力尽而离开，因为他们想做别的事情，而在交易之外找不到激情，然后又回到原来的工作。
That was my big fear almost, that I would get pulled back into it.
这几乎是我最大的恐惧，我担心我会被拉回其中。
I still trade a little bit from my own account, but I’ve never for one moment, since I stepped away, thought that that was the wrong decision and that I wanted to go back to managing other people’s money and doing it as a full-time job.
我仍然用自己的账户进行一点交易，但自从我离开以来，我从来没有一刻认为这是错误的决定，我想回去管理别人的资金并将其作为一份全职工作。
If you think about the culture of a successful trading organization — and you’ve been in several — what is unique or striking about those cultures?
如果您思考一个成功的贸易组织的文化 ——并且您曾参与过多个贸易组织—— 这些文化有什么独特之处或引人注目的地方？
The irony is .
讽刺的是。
.
。
.
。
The trading floors are known, especially in the ’90s and 2000s, for this very boisterous atmosphere and boys club, bordering on sexual harassment for females and people throwing phones, whatever.
交易大厅以热闹的氛围和男孩俱乐部而闻名，尤其是在 90 年代和 2000 年代，这些俱乐部几乎对女性进行性骚扰，人们还扔手机等等。
That came from these New York trading floors with the Ivy League educated people in probably a more conservative workplace type environment in the Northeast than one would think of Texas being.
这些来自纽约的交易大厅，受过常春藤盟校教育的人们所处的东北部工作环境可能比人们想象的德克萨斯州更为保守。
What I found was that the trading floors in Texas, in the energy business that was largely a male-dominated industry, were all very calm, and it was much more cerebral than what this image had been.
我发现德克萨斯州的交易大厅，在能源行业，主要是男性主导的行业，都非常平静，而且比这个形象要理智得多。
Like chess, in a way.
在某种程度上，就像国际象棋一样。
Yes.
是的。
Especially as trading went from open outcry on the exchanges in New York to electronic.
尤其是当交易从纽约交易所的公开喊价转向电子化时。
Then trading floors just became silent, right?
然后交易大厅就变得安静了，对吧？
Everybody’s sitting there just working on their computer.
每个人都坐在那里，只是在电脑上工作。
It’s as if you’re going into a tech company and seeing everybody coding.
这就好像你进入一家科技公司，看到每个人都在编码。
Everybody’s just sitting there staring at your computer all day long.
每个人都整天坐在那里盯着电脑。
All interactions ended up being over the computer and virtual rather than oral.
所有的互动最终都是通过计算机和虚拟的而不是口头的。
One of the places where you traded was Enron.
你交易的地方之一是安然公司。
What was Enron like as a talent culture?
安然公司的人才文化是什么样的？
Obviously, it later became much more controversial.
显然，它后来引起了更大的争议。
How did it feel being there?
在那里感觉如何？
The traders it attracted or —
它吸引的交易者或者 ——
I think it realized that it wasn’t going to be able to recruit the good graduates from the top 10 schools, so it went for that next tier and tried to find the best people out of that next tier of schools.
我认为它意识到自己无法从排名前 10 的学校招募到优秀的毕业生，因此它进入了下一级学校，并试图从下一级学校中找到最优秀的人才。
From Dallas, say.
比如说，来自达拉斯。
Right.
正确的。
Schools like the Vanderbilt and Rice and Emory, University of Texas, et cetera.
范德比尔特大学、莱斯大学、埃默里大学、德克萨斯大学等学校。
Would bring them in — I think everybody had a bit of chip on their shoulder when they came in — but brought in this collection of people, and they put them through the traditional Wall Street training and analyst program.
会把他们引进来——我想每个人进来的时候都有点紧张——但引进了这群人，他们让他们接受了传统的华尔街培训和分析师计划。
But I think what was different about Enron versus the more mature investment banks was, Enron was growing so quickly and the industry was growing so quickly that if you showed any modicum of talent or ability to take responsibility, you would either get promoted or you get hired away by another firm that was trying to copy the Enron business model.
但我认为安然与更成熟的投资银行的不同之处在于，安然发展得如此之快，行业发展得如此之快，如果你表现出一点点才华或承担责任的能力，你要么得到晋升，要么被另一家试图复制安然商业模式的公司挖走。
As a 21-year-old going in there, my career escalated much quicker than it would have somewhere else.
作为一名 21 岁的年轻人，我的职业生涯比其他地方的发展要快得多。
Now, I think there were a lot of benefits for the employee.
现在，我认为这对员工来说有很多好处。
I think this ended up maybe being part of the downfall of Enron, that responsibility was given to people too early in their career without the necessary controls being in there.
我认为这最终可能是安然公司垮台的一部分，这种责任在人们职业生涯的早期就被赋予了，而没有必要的控制。
I think there was this balance of it was the fantastic place to work as a young person, especially if you showed that you could handle the responsibility.
我认为，对于年轻人来说，这是一个理想的工作场所，尤其是如果你表现出自己能够承担起责任的话。
Because I went from age 21, the most junior guy on the trading desk, to age 25 and I was the head trader at the biggest trading firm in the industry.
因为我从 21 岁，交易台上资历最浅的人，到 25 岁，成为业内最大交易公司的首席交易员。
On energy and renewables
关于能源和可再生能源
Questions about energy markets.
有关能源市场的问题。
How much conventional capacity in the US has solar really replaced?
太阳能真正取代了美国多少传统产能？
It’s replaced a significant part of coal-fired generation.
它取代了燃煤发电的很大一部分。
The transition, to the extent you think that we need to transition away from carbon fuels, has two components.
从您认为我们需要摆脱碳燃料的角度来看，这种转变有两个组成部分。
Number one is the component of replacing the existing stock.
第一个是替换现有库存的组件。
Second is fueling the growth in energy demand, which is expected to double between 2020 and 2050 globally.
其次是推动能源需求的增长，预计 2020 年至 2050 年全球能源需求将翻一番。
Those are two enormous challenges on their own, and combined, they become very significant.
这本身就是两个巨大的挑战，加起来它们就变得非常重要。
The growth in solar, as has happened in the US, has very much replaced the decline in coal, which is close to down 75 percent from its peak.
正如美国所发生的那样，太阳能的增长在很大程度上取代了煤炭的下降，煤炭发电较峰值下降了近 75%。
Now, it hasn’t met the growth in electricity demand.
现在，它还不能满足电力需求的增长。
You see at the same time where coal is going down and wind and solar — primarily solar at this point — are going up, you see natural gas still going up.
你会看到，在煤炭价格下降的同时，风能和太阳能（目前主要是太阳能）价格上涨，而天然气价格仍在上涨。
So, the replacement of the existing energy stock is happening.
因此，现有能源库存的替代正在发生。
It’s happening at a slow pace, but the ability to meet the future demand growth isn’t improving yet.
虽然进展缓慢，但满足未来需求增长的能力尚未改善。
How green do you think natural gas is?
您认为天然气有多环保？
From a carbon standpoint, it’s relatively clean.
从碳的角度来看，它相对清洁。
I think the problem with natural gas is the methane leaks.
我认为天然气的问题在于甲烷泄漏。
It’s a problem that the industry has really avoided to date.
迄今为止，该行业确实避免了这个问题。
I think that a lot of the focus in environmental movement for a long time was just on carbon and either didn’t recognize or didn’t address the methane leaks that are happening in the industry.
我认为，长期以来，环保运动的大部分焦点都集中在碳上，要么没有认识到，要么没有解决该行业正在发生的甲烷泄漏问题。
There’s a lot of debate about what is the true environmental footprint of natural gas.
关于天然气真正的环境足迹是什么，存在很多争论。
I think it’s bigger than certainly what the industry is willing to admit and is bigger than what was commonly held.
我认为它的规模肯定比业界愿意承认的规模更大，也比人们普遍认为的规模更大。
It’s a tricky problem.
这是一个棘手的问题。
There are some components of it that are easy to address.
它的一些组件很容易解决。
There are some components of it that require an enormous amount of resources in order to plug old wells.
它的某些组件需要大量资源才能堵塞旧井。
The question is, how do we go about dealing with this legacy problem of old wells that are leaking, and that’s the expensive part.
问题是，我们如何处理老井泄漏的遗留问题，这是成本高昂的部分。
The easier part is making sure that the new supplies are as clean as possible, and I think industry has broadly done a good job with that.
更容易的部分是确保新供应尽可能清洁，我认为业界在这方面普遍做得很好。
Which country does that best?
哪个国家做得最好？
It may be the US.
可能是美国。
We were part of putting MethaneSAT as project the EDF led to survey the methane leaks globally.
我们参与了 EDF 牵头的甲烷卫星项目，以调查全球甲烷泄漏情况。
There’s a fair amount of activity today on measuring methane leaks in the US where you have access to the property near fields, and companies themselves are starting to do it.
如今，在美国有大量测量甲烷泄漏的活动，您可以在靠近油田的地方进行测量，而且公司本身也开始这样做。
There are some regs about it.
有一些关于它的规定。
Trying to figure out what is the methane leaks in Russia, what’s the methane leaks in the Middle East, in South America has always been a big question.
试图弄清楚俄罗斯、中东、南美的甲烷泄漏是什么一直是一个大问题。
I think as that data is coming in, we’re seeing more and more that there are very significant problems in those countries.
我认为随着数据的出现，我们越来越多地看到这些国家存在非常严重的问题。
How are the land requirements for solar going to work out?
太阳能的土地需求将如何解决？
What percent of the country ends up being paved over with panels?
全国有百分之多少的地区最终被铺上了面板？
Are they only on rooftops?
它们只在屋顶上吗？
Or how does this work?
或者这是如何运作的？
It’s probably utility scale.
这可能是效用规模。
It’s probably on the ground in places where the value of land is low.
它可能在土地价值较低的地方的地面上。
So, rural Arizona will be covered?
那么，亚利桑那州的农村地区将被覆盖吗？
The first megawatt of solar you bring on the system is very easy to bring on.
您为系统引入的第一兆瓦太阳能非常容易引入。
You can do it right outside of Phoenix, right next to an existing transmission line, and you’re just displacing a little bit of natural gas gen during the day, right?
你可以在菲尼克斯郊外、现有输电线路旁边做到这一点，而且你只需在白天取代一点天然气发电，对吧？
As you build more and more, you start to have the duck curve, and you start to have hours when solar is producing all of the electricity during a certain hour, and the value of power during that time is zero.
随着你建造的越来越多，你开始出现鸭子曲线，并且你开始有几个小时太阳能在某一小时内产生所有电力，而该时间段内的电力价值为零。
The question is, if you’re going to build more solar in those areas, you either need to add battery to take that from daytime to nighttime, or you need to build transmission so you can move that energy someplace else.
问题是，如果你要在这些地区建造更多的太阳能，你要么需要添加电池以将其从白天带到夜间，要么需要建立传输，以便将能量转移到其他地方。
Say there’s a major volcanic event, and there’s a lot of ash in the sky for two or three years.
假设发生了一场重大火山活动，天空中持续两三年有大量火山灰。
Solar needs a backup.
太阳能需要备用。
In the meantime, before the volcanic event happens — and of course, that’s quite rare — how much do we need to be up and running with the backup energy infrastructure?
与此同时，在火山事件发生之前 ——当然，这种情况相当罕见—— 我们需要多少资金来启动和运行备用能源基础设施？
What do we need for reserve capacity in case the solar goes down?
如果太阳能出现故障，我们需要什么储备容量？
Good question.
好问题。
It would be difficult.
这会很困难。
It’s doable today.
今天是可行的。
I think as solar continues to grow in market share, both in the US and globally, it will have to be met with some type of battery, a significant battery resource.
我认为，随着太阳能在美国和全球市场份额的持续增长，它必须配备某种类型的电池，这是一种重要的电池资源。
That’s part of the economics of solar now, that it’s not just sticking it right outside of Phoenix, but it is solar plus transmission or solar plus battery.
这是现在太阳能经济的一部分，它不仅仅是将其固定在凤凰城之外，而是太阳能加传输或太阳能加电池。
The question of what happens in that type of event — it would be difficult.
在这种类型的事件中会发生什么的问题 ——这将是很困难的。
The existing energy infrastructure is still largely around.
现有的能源基础设施仍然基本存在。
But it will dwindle over time, right?
但随着时间的推移，它会减少，对吗？
It will dwindle over time.
随着时间的推移它会减少。
Is there some market issue?
市场有问题吗？
Say the volcanic event is only once every 150 years, but sooner or later, one happens.
假设火山活动每 150 年才发生一次，但迟早会发生一次。
In the meantime, you need economic incentives for the gas or the nuclear to be ready.
与此同时，你需要经济激励来让天然气或核能做好准备。
Does our government just keep on paying for those for 149 years in a row until the catastrophe comes?
我们的政府是否会连续 149 年继续支付这些费用，直到灾难来临？
It’s a great question, and I think this is why nuclear, and particularly next-gen nuclear, is considered the holy grail, right?
这是一个很好的问题，我认为这就是为什么核能，特别是下一代核能被认为是圣杯，对吗？
You’re not constrained by location.
您不受地点的限制。
You’re not constrained by, is the wind blowing, is the sun shining?
你不受束缚，风在吹，阳光在照吗？
And it’s a clean resource.
而且它是一种干净的资源。
The problem today is just economics.
今天的问题只是经济问题。
In order to develop the current generation of nuclear, it’s extraordinarily expensive.
为了开发当前这一代核能，其成本非常昂贵。
Next generation — either small modular fission or fusion — both have a number of technological as well as unclear economics in how they compete.
下一代——“小型模块化裂变或聚变”——两者都拥有大量技术，但在如何竞争方面却存在不明确的经济因素。
I do think this question of how do you do this transition in a manner that maintains affordability but continues to get cleaner and lower emissions over time is a complex one, and I think it’s one that the environmentalists probably oversold five years ago in saying that this was going to be an easy transition.
我确实认为，如何以一种既能保持负担能力，又能随着时间的推移继续变得更清洁和更低排放的方式进行这一转变，是一个复杂的问题，我认为环保主义者五年前可能过分夸大了这个问题，因为他们说这将是一个简单的转变。
It’s certainly not.
当然不是。
Just the scale and scope of the energy system is enormous, as you’re pointing to in your question.
正如您在问题中指出的那样，能源系统的规模和范围是巨大的。
The need for backup, the need for a diversity of fuels, and how they complement each other is real, and you can’t replace that just with the intermittent resources we have today, plus battery.
对备份的需求、对多种燃料的需求以及它们如何相互补充是真实存在的，你不能仅仅用我们今天拥有的间歇性资源加上电池来取代它们。
Did Mexico make a mistake letting itself become so dependent on the United States for gas?
墨西哥是否犯了一个错误，让自己如此依赖美国的天然气？
Mexico made a mistake by having their energy system be state-owned and state-controlled, and that is part of the Mexican constitution.
墨西哥犯了一个错误，他们的能源系统是国有和国家控制的，这是墨西哥宪法的一部分。
One of the problems that they’ve had is that there’s natural tension between do you take some of the cash flow from Pemex and reinvest it in the business or do you take it and fund your favorite government program?
他们遇到的问题之一是，你是否从墨西哥国家石油公司获取部分现金流并将其再投资于业务，或者你是否将其用于资助你最喜欢的政府项目，这之间存在天然的紧张关系？
Government as the decider of that question will, naturally, over time, take more and more of that money into the government coffers.
政府作为这个问题的决定者，自然会随着时间的推移将越来越多的资金放入政府金库。
So, the Mexican oil and gas industry has just been in steady decline over time because of a lack of CapEx.
因此，由于缺乏资本支出，墨西哥石油和天然气行业随着时间的推移一直在稳步下滑。
This is a fundamental problem of the industry.
这是行业的根本问题。
In 2013, Mexico proposed and passed a law to allow foreign investment into their energy system beyond just services for the first time, but allow actual ownership or pseudo-ownership of the resource.
2013年，墨西哥提出并通过了一项法律，首次允许外国投资进入其能源系统，而不仅仅是服务业，但允许资源的实际所有权或伪所有权。
It may not be credible, right?
可能不太靠谱吧？
Then it wasn’t credible, and then it gets revoked, so the US industry, for a time, was very excited about this opportunity and ran in there.
然后它就不可信了，然后又被撤销了，所以美国业界一度对这个机会非常兴奋，纷纷涌入那里。
Now, it’s hands off.
现在，一切都放开了。
That’s why Mexico is deteriorating.
这就是墨西哥局势恶化的原因。
Although they have enormous resources, they’re not using it to their ability, and they’re becoming more and more dependent on places like the US.
尽管他们拥有巨大的资源，但他们并没有充分利用这些资源，而且他们越来越依赖美国等国家。
What should Canada do better?
加拿大应该在哪些方面做得更好？
Canada has viewed itself as having a permanent ally in the United States —
加拿大将自己视为美国的永久盟友 ——
Yes and no.
是和不是。
— and has become dependent upon exports into the United States and access to the United States market for its surplus energy.
——并且已经变得依赖于向美国的出口以及进入美国市场的过剩能源。
That creates a lot of risk, as you’re seeing today.
正如您今天所看到的，这会带来很大的风险。
It created risk during the Obama administration whenever that administration rejected the Keystone Pipeline, and you had trapped resource in Canada, and it’s hard to get it to the West Coast and go over the Rocky Mountains.
在奥巴马政府期间，每当政府拒绝基斯通管道时，就会产生风险，并且资源被困在加拿大，很难将其运送到西海岸并越过落基山脉。
The problem there is the mountains?
问题出在山上吗？
Or it’s the governments or the provincial barriers to trade?
或者是政府或省级贸易壁垒？
What stops them from having their own pipelines to their own coasts?
是什么阻止他们拥有通往自己海岸的管道？
There have been proposals to do so.
已有建议这样做。
I think part of it is the mountains.
我认为其中一部分是山。
Part of it is the provinces have very different views of oil and gas.
部分原因是各省对石油和天然气的看法截然不同。
And BC wants to be more green than Alberta.
BC 省希望比艾伯塔省更加环保。
BC wants to be more green, and they’re the coast.
BC省希望变得更加绿色，而他们就是海岸。
Calgary is very much a mini-Houston and has similar values as Texas and Houston.
卡尔加里在很大程度上是一个迷你休斯顿，与德克萨斯州和休斯顿有着相似的价值观。
The energy producers and the energy consumers often end up with different ideologies on this, so part of it has been government, part of it’s been logistics and cost.
能源生产商和能源消费者往往在这方面有不同的意识形态，因此部分原因是政府，部分原因是物流和成本。
Are they going to solve that problem after the Trump shock?
在特朗普震惊之后，他们会解决这个问题吗？
Or are they just going to stay put and suffer?
或者他们只是留在原地受苦？
I would think that they’re going to try to solve the problem.
我认为他们会尝试解决这个问题。
What does the solution look like?
解决方案是什么样的？
You go to the Atlantic coast or you browbeat the British Columbians rather?
你去大西洋海岸还是威逼不列颠哥伦比亚省？
I think the difference between the environmentalists and the energy producers has shrunk over time.
我认为随着时间的推移，环保主义者和能源生产商之间的分歧已经缩小。
I think there’s a realization from the energy producers that cleaning the system over time and trying to minimize emissions is a positive, and that there’s a business around it.
我认为能源生产商已经认识到，随着时间的推移清洁系统并努力最大程度地减少排放是积极的，并且围绕它有一个业务。
I think the environmentalists have realized that this is a more difficult problem, and that natural gas in particular is going to be part of the electricity sector for a long time.
我认为环保主义者已经意识到这是一个更困难的问题，尤其是天然气将在很长一段时间内成为电力行业的一部分。
It’s hard to see how you transition off of that in anything but the very long term, and that oil has a very large component of the broader energy system as a transport fuel and as an industrial fuel for a very long time.
除了从长远来看，很难看出如何摆脱这种情况，而且石油在很长一段时间内作为运输燃料和工业燃料在更广泛的能源系统中占有非常大的组成部分。
Is carbon sequestration going to work?
碳封存会起作用吗？
Or it will just always cost too much?
或者它总是花费太多？
It’s probably going to always cost too much.
它可能总是要花费太多。
With advanced market commitment — does that help at all or it doesn’t really matter?
有了先进的市场承诺 —— 这有帮助还是并不重要？
I think the question is, does society want to allocate those resources for that, and the problem of who pays for it, given that the benefit is global.
我认为问题是，考虑到好处是全球性的，社会是否愿意为此分配这些资源，以及谁为此买单的问题。
What’s your most optimistic scenario for the US energy future from an environmental point of view, something that could plausibly happen?
从环境角度来看，您对美国能源未来最乐观的情况是什么（有可能发生）？
I think next-gen nuclear, if we can overcome the technical hurdles, if we can overcome the economic hurdles.
我认为下一代核能，如果我们能够克服技术障碍，如果我们能够克服经济障碍。
But isn’t NIMBYism the biggest hurdle?
但邻避主义难道不是最大的障碍吗？
The others I could imagine overcoming pretty readily, but I live in Fairfax County, which builds a fair amount.
其他的我可以想象很容易克服，但我住在费尔法克斯县，那里的建筑数量相当多。
People there just don’t want nuclear.
那里的人们就是不想要核能。
It’s irrational, but I’m not sure they’ll change their minds.
这是不合理的，但我不确定他们会改变主意。
It could be called fusion; it’s still nuclear to them.
这可以称为融合；它对他们来说仍然是核心。
Yes, I’ve been surprised.
是的，我很惊讶。
That was my prior five years ago.
那是我五年前的事了。
I’ve been surprised at the number of jurisdictions that are inviting these next-gen nuclear companies to come.
我对邀请这些下一代核公司前来的司法管辖区数量感到惊讶。
Texas, for instance, just passed a bill creating new incentives for nuclear companies to come and build their first plants and pilot projects in Texas.
例如，德克萨斯州刚刚通过了一项法案，为核电公司来德克萨斯州建设第一座核电站和试点项目提供新的激励措施。
You see jurisdictions that are choosing to take the economic growth associated with it and that have more of a building culture and say, “Come here.”
你会看到一些司法管辖区选择利用与之相关的经济增长，并且拥有更多的建筑文化，并说：“来这里吧。”
I think, as things get proven out, then the question is, will the Fairfax counties of the world see what’s going on and become more agreeable to having that?
我认为，随着事情得到证实，那么问题是，世界上的费尔法克斯县会看到正在发生的事情并变得更愿意接受这种情况吗？
I think it’s very similar to self-driving cars.
我认为这与自动驾驶汽车非常相似。
There’re some jurisdictions that say, “Come here.
有些司法管辖区说：“来这里。
We want you to come, test,” and this is what’s happening in Texas.
我们希望你来测试，”这就是德克萨斯州正在发生的事情。
These companies say, “We want you to come pilot your projects here.” And some jurisdictions are saying, “No, prove it out, and then we’ll talk.”
这些公司说，“我们希望你来这里试点你的项目。”一些司法管辖区表示，“不，先证明一下，然后我们再谈。”
My nightmare is that even Texas becomes NIMBY.
我的噩梦是，就连德克萨斯州也变得邻避。
You see this in Austin already.
你已经在奥斯汀看到了这一点。
Houston, Dallas will become more like the rest of America over time, maybe even San Antonio someday, El Paso with more time.
随着时间的推移，休斯顿、达拉斯将变得更像美国其他地区，也许有一天甚至圣安东尼奥，埃尔帕索也会有更多时间。
I think you’re right.
我认为你是对的。
I think you are seeing more NIMBY that’s happening today.
我认为您今天看到了更多邻避行为。
It is getting harder to build an intrastate natural gas pipeline in Texas than it was 10 years ago.
与十年前相比，在德克萨斯州建设州内天然气管道变得越来越困难。
You’re having more debates about transportation infrastructure.
关于交通基础设施的争论越来越多。
There’s been this line proposed from Houston to Dallas with private money that ended up with this big NIMBY debate and farmers complaining about eminent domain on their property.
有人提议用私人资金从休斯敦到达拉斯修建这条线路，最终引发了一场大规模的邻避辩论，农民们抱怨他们的财产被征用。
I think, certainly on linear infrastructure, that’s true.
我认为，在线性基础设施上，确实如此。
We haven’t seen it yet on things like housing and the NIMBYism on economic plants or industrial plants coming to Texas.
我们还没有在住房等方面看到这种情况，也没有在德克萨斯州的经济工厂或工业工厂上看到邻避主义。
Texas has the door open and is welcoming of that today.
德克萨斯州的大门敞开，今天对此表示欢迎。
On fixing the US energy grid
关于修复美国能源网络
What do we need to do to fix the grid?
我们需要做什么来修复网格？
And is that just impossible?
那是不可能的吗？
It’s not impossible.
这并非不可能。
The problem with the grid is that, by nature of history, the US ended up with three grids.
网格的问题在于，根据历史的本质，美国最终只有三个网格。
The first grid was in New York City in 1882.
第一个电网于 1882 年在纽约市建立。
It followed the population and started to spiderweb out from there.
它跟随人群并开始从那里结出蜘蛛网。
You also had a grid start on the West Coast a few years later, but nobody really lived in the plains.
几年后，你在西海岸也有了一个网格，但没有人真正住在平原上。
The weather is bad.
天气不好。
It’s hot summers and cold winters, and windy, and the soil is not great in parts of it.
夏季炎热，冬季寒冷，风大，部分地区土壤不好。
So, you had these two grids that started — East Coast, West Coast — and started to come in, and they never really met.
所以，你有这两个网格，它们开始于 —— 东海岸，西海岸 ——并开始进入，但它们从未真正相遇。
Then you had this third grid that started in Texas, and Texas has always had this libertarian nature to it, and federal government stay away.
然后你就有了从德克萨斯州开始的第三个网格，德克萨斯州一直具有这种自由主义性质，联邦政府远离它。
In the Federal Power Act in 1935, the government came in and said, “We’re going to start regulating the industry,” Texas said, “You know what?
在 1935 年的《联邦电力法案》中，政府介入并表示，“我们将开始监管该行业，”德克萨斯州说，“你知道吗？
We’re going to disconnect our interconnects to Oklahoma and Louisiana, and we’re going to stay intrastate and be independent.” Now, you have these three grids.
我们将断开与俄克拉荷马州和路易斯安那州的互连，我们将留在州内并保持独立。”现在，你有了这三个网格。
Texas is DC.
德克萨斯州是华盛顿特区。
The other two are AC.
另外两个是AC。
The two that are AC are essentially on a different heartbeat.
两者本质上是交流的，心跳不同。
So, there’s virtually no linkage across those.
因此，这些之间几乎没有联系。
I think what’s happened is that, as the nature of both load and generation has changed over time, you’re starting to see more discrepancies in pricing across regions.
我认为发生的情况是，随着负载和发电的性质随着时间的推移而发生变化，你开始看到不同地区的定价存在更多差异。
What really needs to happen is that these three grids that have been independent have different mix and portfolio of generation, and that their load has different profiles.
真正需要发生的是，这三个独立的电网具有不同的发电组合和组合，并且它们的负载具有不同的配置文件。
There’s a lot of value to be created by linking loads.
链接负载可以创造很多价值。
In the summer, you want to move resource generally north to south and vice versa in the winter.
在夏季，您通常希望将资源从北向南移动，在冬季则从北向南移动。
You get the benefits of time as the sun starts setting.
当太阳开始落山时，你会得到时间的好处。
The five o’clock hour, people start getting home from work.
五点钟，人们开始下班回家。
It’s obviously different in different parts of the US, and you can take advantage of that difference, and then the difference in weather patterns as they move from west to east.
美国不同地区的情况显然有所不同，您可以利用这种差异，然后利用从西向东移动时天气模式的差异。
So, the more linkage you have, the better benefit you get.
因此，您拥有的联系越多，您获得的好处就越大。
In terms of governance, would you keep them independent?
在治理方面，你会让他们保持独立吗？
Or just have them economically more interconnected for better arbitrage?
或者只是让它们在经济上更加互联以获得更好的套利？
I think the nature of history is that these things are going to stay relatively independent.
我认为历史的本质是这些事物将保持相对独立。
You’re going to have the RTOs and ISOs that you have today, generally.
一般来说，您将拥有今天拥有的 RTO 和 ISO。
The Northwest is talking about creating a new regional transmission organization, so there is more integration among states, but I think each of the RTOs probably stays independent over the long term.
西北地区正在讨论建立一个新的区域输电组织，因此各州之间会有更多的整合，但我认为从长远来看，每个 RTO 可能会保持独立。
On data centers
在数据中心
The long-term energy and electricity outlook — as you know, the demand for data centers is way up, AI has been arriving.
能源和电力的长期前景 ——如您所知，对数据中心的需求正在大幅上升，人工智能已经到来。
How are we going to accommodate all that?
我们将如何适应这一切？
I live near Loudoun County.
我住在劳登县附近。
They’re putting restrictions on data centers.
他们对数据中心施加限制。
How are we going to do 3x, say, on the grid, over time?
随着时间的推移，我们将如何在网格上实现 3 倍？
It’s an enormously difficult challenge.
这是一个极其困难的挑战。
I think for a long time, communities welcomed data centers.
我认为长期以来，社区都欢迎数据中心。
They viewed them as not many jobs, but it was tax revenue that was being brought in, and so there was competition amongst jurisdictions about who’s going to win the data center and bring that tax revenue, so jurisdictions would give a rebate of tax revenue back to the developer.
他们认为这些工作岗位并不多，但带来的是税收收入，因此司法管辖区之间存在关于谁将赢得数据中心并带来税收收入的竞争，因此司法管辖区会将税收返还给开发商。
There was a realization just in the past couple years that, wait a minute, these things don’t bring that many jobs, and they use a lot of power, and the marginal cost of new power is greater than the average cost of power.
就在过去几年，人们意识到，等一下，这些东西并不能带来那么多就业机会，而且它们使用大量电力，而且新电力的边际成本大于平均电力成本。
As you bring new load in, it’s raising the cost of power to everybody, and so you see jurisdictions now starting to fight it and saying, “We don’t want these things.
当你引入新的负载时，它会提高每个人的电力成本，因此你会看到司法管辖区现在开始与之抗争并说：“我们不想要这些东西。
Oh, and they’re a bit of an eyesore, not many jobs, and they’re raising the cost of power for everybody.”
哦，它们有点碍眼，工作机会不多，而且还提高了每个人的电力成本。”
Now, there’re ways you can do a large-load tariff that’s starting to happen to try to isolate the effect on individuals, but that leaves the problem of, how do you get 1 gigawatt or 2 or 3 gigawatts — and some people are talking about more — into a particular location on the grid?
现在，有一些方法可以实施大负荷电价，并开始尝试隔离对个人的影响，但这留下了一个问题，即如何将 1 吉瓦或 2 或 3 吉瓦的电力输送到电网的特定位置？
That’s as much of a challenge as anything today.
这与今天的任何事情一样是一个挑战。
You can build the resource, but building the infrastructure to get it to one point is very difficult in much of the country.
您可以构建资源，但在该国大部分地区构建基础设施以将其到达某一点是非常困难的。
When people say, “Well, we need all this AI compute.
当人们说：“好吧，我们需要所有这些人工智能计算。
We need it rapidly to beat China, so we need to set up something quite soon in UAE or Saudi Arabia,” does that make sense to you?
我们需要迅速击败中国，因此我们需要尽快在阿联酋或沙特阿拉伯建立一些东西，”这对你来说有意义吗？
Or do you think they’re just barking up the wrong tree?
或者你认为他们只是找错了对象？
I think it’s true that you can build quicker in some other countries.
我认为在其他一些国家确实可以更快地建设。
It’s also true that you can get as cheap, if not cheaper power in some of those same countries.
确实，在其中一些国家，您可以获得同样便宜（甚至更便宜）的电力。
What’s not true is the faith in the political system that I think there’s grave concern about, as AI is becoming talked about more and more about strategic national interest and national security.
我认为人们对政治体系的信心是不真实的，因为人工智能越来越多地被谈论为国家战略利益和国家安全。
Question is, do we want the most important data centers to be located outside of the United States jurisdiction?
问题是，我们是否希望最重要的数据中心位于美国管辖范围之外？
I think both at a national level as well as at a company level, that answer has largely been no.
我认为无论是在国家层面还是在公司层面，答案基本上是否定的。
Say if we don’t do it, especially UAE might cut its own deal with China, and China just does it, and China is way ahead of us on AI, which has military, cyber implications, and we just lose out because we’re still fiddling around with lobbying the citizens of Loudoun County or something.
比如说，如果我们不这样做，特别是阿联酋可能会与中国达成协议，而中国就会这样做，中国在人工智能方面远远领先于我们，这具有军事、网络影响，而我们只是失败，因为我们仍在游说劳登县的公民或其他什么东西。
Do we need to preempt them even though we don’t have full trust in those governments?
即使我们对这些政府没有完全的信任，我们是否也需要先发制人？
Yes.
是的。
It’s one of the things that the Energy Dominance Council at the White House is considering right now, and there are places in the US where you can build.
这是白宫能源主导委员会正在考虑的事情之一，并且在美国有一些地方可以建造。
Again, trying to bring this into the AI, the historical data center development corridors like Virginia, is increasingly hard.
同样，试图将其引入人工智能，像弗吉尼亚州这样的历史数据中心发展走廊，变得越来越困难。
Bringing it into Texas is still very doable, and so you see many of the announcements of the gigawatt-plus data centers are now happening in Texas.
将其引入德克萨斯州仍然是非常可行的，因此您会看到许多千兆瓦以上数据中心的公告现在都发生在德克萨斯州。
They’re also happening in some random places across the United States that have a good point that are at the intersection of many high-voltage electrical lines and can bring in resource from a number of different areas and get that portfolio approach for resource for that particular plant.
它们也发生在美国各地的一些随机地方，这些地方有一个很好的点，位于许多高压电线的交叉点，可以从许多不同的地区引入资源，并为该特定工厂获得资源的组合方法。
Do you have a favorite so-called weird idea for energy supply, like generalized geothermal or solar-powered space stations?
您是否有最喜欢的所谓奇怪的能源供应想法，例如广义地热或太阳能空间站？
Does any of that have a chance?
这些有机会吗？
Or it’s just science fiction?
或者这只是科幻小说？
I think it’s science fiction.
我认为这是科幻小说。
I’ve heard a lot of these proposals.
我听过很多这样的建议。
It’s hard.
这很难。
It’s hard to figure it out.
很难弄清楚。
Putting aside the national moves away from nuclear, how good or bad is EU energy regulation?
抛开各国远离核能的举措不谈，欧盟能源监管的好坏如何？
It’s hard to isolate the shutdown of Russian supplies into the EU in terms of what their energy system would have looked like absent that.
如果没有俄罗斯的能源系统，很难将俄罗斯对欧盟的供应中断孤立起来。
I think one question is, do you want to have an n minus 1, that is, your largest supplier goes away and have that risk, have that type of effect on the system?
我认为一个问题是，你是否希望 n 减 1，即你最大的供应商消失并承担这种风险，对系统产生这种影响？
And was that a foreseeable possibility that they should have planned for?
这是他们应该计划的可预见的可能性吗？
I think that’s a reasonable proposal or hypothesis.
我认为这是一个合理的提议或假设。
I think the question is, the more backup and redundancy you build into the system, the higher cost it is, and so there’s frequently this trade-off between reliability and cost.
我认为问题是，系统中构建的备份和冗余越多，成本就越高，因此可靠性和成本之间经常需要进行权衡。
We have it in Texas.
我们在德克萨斯州有它。
You saw after Storm Uri, and the Texas legislature is still debating about what reliability do we add, and what’s the cost of it, and how do we find the perfect balance of it?
你看到在乌里风暴之后，德克萨斯州立法机构仍在争论我们要增加什么可靠性，其成本是多少，以及我们如何找到它的完美平衡？
The answer in Texas is different than the answer in Virginia or the answer in Europe.
德克萨斯州的答案与弗吉尼亚州或欧洲的答案不同。
I think it’s easy in retrospect to say Europe regulations failed.
我认为回想起来很容易说欧洲监管失败了。
I think it’s harder to say that, had you gone to Europe five years ago and said, “Do you want to build redundancy in case Russia supplies completely cease or down very significantly?
我认为很难这么说，如果你五年前去欧洲说：“如果俄罗斯的供应完全停止或大幅下降，你想建立冗余吗？
And do you want to pay for that?” I’m not sure what the answer would have been.
你愿意为此付出代价吗？”我不确定答案是什么。
On Houston
关于休斯顿
What do you like best about living in Houston?
您最喜欢休斯顿生活的什么？
There’s something dynamic about being in a growing area.
身处不断发展的地区是有活力的。
I have a house in a Colorado mountain town, and it’s fantastic, and it’s beautiful, and the weather is great, and it’s a bit stagnant as well.
我在科罗拉多州的一个山区小镇有一所房子，它很棒，很漂亮，天气很好，但也有点停滞。
You have the growth and dynamism in Houston.
休斯顿拥有成长和活力。
Houston doesn’t have the natural beauty.
休斯顿没有自然美景。
It doesn’t have great weather, but it’s a place that is only going to succeed if it works.
它的天气不太好，但它是一个只有行之有效才能成功的地方。
Government’s responsive, and people go there because of the opportunity.
政府反应灵敏，人们因为机会而去那里。
It’s been easy to build.
它很容易构建。
Texas has had this libertarian culture and low-tax culture that’s encouraged businesses to come, which then encourages people in their productive years to come.
德克萨斯州拥有这种自由主义文化和低税收文化，鼓励企业前来，进而鼓励人们在未来的富有成效的岁月里。
Many of the first generation — professionally both blue collar and white collar — have chosen to come to Houston for the opportunity.
许多第一代——“职业蓝领和白领”——都选择来到休斯顿寻找机会。
I was at a dinner with friends the other day.
前几天我和朋友一起吃饭。
I think there were 10 of us around the table.
我想我们有 10 个人围坐在桌子旁。
Every one of us was first generation to Houston that had come for the opportunity.
我们每个人都是第一代来到休斯顿寻找机会的人。
None of us had our high school friend networks that we were hanging out with.
我们没有人有我们一起出去玩的高中朋友网络。
It’s a very welcoming city, I think.
我认为这是一个非常热情的城市。
The ethnic diversity and the fact that the diversity is intertwined throughout the city.
种族多样性和多样性在整个城市交织在一起。
If you look at the ethnic maps of many northern cities — take Chicago for one — everything south of downtown is Black and north of downtown is White, and you just have this dividing line.
如果你看一下许多北方城市的种族地图 ——以芝加哥为例 —— 市中心以南的都是黑人，市中心以北的都是白人，你就只有这条分界线。
These cities are very separate.
这些城市非常独立。
The ethnic makeup of Houston is very interspersed.
休斯顿的民族构成非常分散。
You have these little pockets of Hispanic neighborhoods and Black neighborhoods and White neighborhoods, but it’s more of a checkerboard throughout the city, and I think the city is better for it.
你有一些西班牙裔社区、黑人社区和白人社区，但它更像是整个城市的棋盘，我认为城市因此变得更好。
At least superficially, I have the impression that there aren’t so many externally influential institutions or movements coming out of Houston, Arnold Ventures aside, but do you think that’s true?
至少从表面上看，我的印象是，除了阿诺德风险投资公司之外，休斯顿并没有那么多具有外部影响力的机构或运动，但你认为这是真的吗？
Or why is that?
或者说这是为什么呢？
It’s a large city.
这是一个大城市。
It has a lot of wealth, a lot of civic spirit, two great art museums, plus the Rothko Chapel, but it seems fairly self-contained in a way.
它拥有大量的财富，大量的公民精神，两个伟大的艺术博物馆，再加上罗斯科教堂，但在某种程度上它似乎相当自给自足。
Yes.
是的。
I think Houston is an execution city.
我认为休斯顿是一座执行力之城。
It is a place that people go to do this stuff, to build the things.
这是人们去做这些事情、建造这些东西的地方。
Its core business has been energy, and then all the things associated with energy and chemicals and manufacturing.
它的核心业务是能源，然后是与能源、化学品和制造相关的所有业务。
It has the blue-collar roots to it, but then also has become the magnet for corporate headquarters in this space.
它有着蓝领根源，但后来也成为该领域企业总部的磁石。
Even a generation ago, 20, 25 years ago, the energy industry was much more dispersed than it is today.
即使在一代人之前，即 20、25 年前，能源行业也比今天分散得多。
You had parts of it in Dallas and Tulsa and Oklahoma City and Denver and New Orleans and a little bit in LA and New York.
达拉斯、塔尔萨、俄克拉荷马城、丹佛和新奥尔良有一部分，洛杉矶和纽约也有一点。
Much of that has congregated to Houston.
其中大部分都聚集在休斯顿。
I agree that Houston has not been on the forefront of movements.
我同意休斯顿并没有走在运动的最前沿。
It hasn’t been historically an inventing city.
它在历史上并不是一座发明城市。
It’s been a manufacturing and execution city, and more of evolutionary improvements rather than revolutionary improvements.
它是一座制造和执行城市，更多的是渐进式改进，而不是革命性改进。
Now, you live in an Alexander Gorlin-designed modernist house.
现在，您住在亚历山大·戈林设计的现代主义住宅中。
He once said in an interview, and I quote, “To live in a modern space requires discipline.
他曾经在一次采访中说过，我引用一下：“生活在现代空间需要纪律。
If one or two things are out of place, it just destroys the whole balance.” Then someone said, “Well, this is why people don’t want to live in modernist homes, because they’re messy.” Then he said, “Not all lives are messy.” How do you feel about this, living in one of his houses?
如果一两件事不合适，就会破坏整个平衡。”然后有人说：“好吧，这就是为什么人们不想住在现代主义住宅里，因为它们很乱。”然后他说：“并不是所有的生活都是一团糟的。”住在他的一所房子里，你对此有何感想？
It takes a little bit of work, for sure.
当然，这需要一些工作。
It takes a lot of work.
这需要做很多工作。
I love it.
我喜欢它。
My wife loves it.
我的妻子喜欢它。
Our kids, I think, would prefer the messy house and would prefer things not to feel like you can’t touch them.
我想，我们的孩子会更喜欢凌乱的房子，也更喜欢那些让人感觉你无法碰触它们的东西。
We have parts of the house that are more formal and parts of the house that are more informal.
我们的房子有更正式的部分和更非正式的部分。
I do think there is a component to that of if a house looks worn in, if a modernist house looks worn in, it starts to degrade quickly, and the aesthetic value of it starts to degrade much quicker than a normal house, and so it just requires a lot of maintenance and upkeep.
我确实认为，如果一座房子看起来很破旧，如果一座现代主义的房子看起来很破旧，它就会开始迅速退化，而且它的审美价值开始比普通房子更快地退化，所以它只需要大量的维护和保养。
Can you do Houston hurricane protection with the modernist house?
你能用现代主义的房子来做休斯顿飓风防护吗？
Is that a contradiction, or it just works?
这是矛盾的，还是它只是有效的？
No, it works.
不，它有效。
I think building materials today are extraordinarily good.
我认为现在的建筑材料非常好。
Any house that was built in the 21st century can withstand the vast majority of any type of windstorm.
任何 21 世纪建造的房屋都可以抵御绝大多数任何类型的风暴。
On collecting art
论艺术品收藏
What makes a really good Picasso better than a middling Picasso?
是什么让真正优秀的毕加索比中等水平的毕加索更好？
I think the amount of work and effort he put into it.
我想他为此付出的努力和努力。
There were some paintings he did where he worked on them for two years, and there are some that he did in a day.
有些画是他花了两年时间画的，有些是他一天画的。
He would just wake up and pump something out.
他会醒来并抽出一些东西。
It was especially true later in life.
在以后的生活中尤其如此。
I think, as artists get more successful and get lazy and get wealthier, and the market starts to take anything that they pump out, the quality of work would tend to decline.
我认为，随着艺术家变得更加成功、变得懒惰、变得更加富有，市场开始接受他们产出的任何东西，作品的质量往往会下降。
What’s peak Picasso for you?
对你来说，毕加索的巅峰是什么？
His Cubist period, where it was mirroring abstraction with figuration oftentimes.
他的立体主义时期，经常用具象来反映抽象。
That’s very much a core thread throughout.
这在很大程度上是贯穿全文的核心线索。
Laura and my collection is at that intersection.
劳拉和我的收藏就在那个十字路口。
I think the revolutionary components of Cubism is one that I very much appreciate.
我认为立体主义的革命性成分是我非常欣赏的。
A lot of our Silicon Valley friends — they strongly dislike modernism, and they think it’s a kind of corruption or even perversion.
我们很多硅谷的朋友——他们非常不喜欢现代主义，他们认为这是一种腐败甚至变态。
Or it represents decline of the modern or contemporary world.
或者它代表了现代或当代世界的衰落。
What is it you think they’re missing?
您认为他们缺少什么？
I’ve always been drawn to things that are timeless, that were created at a moment in time, and I think that’s what great art is, doing something that’s relevant to the moment.
我总是被那些永恒的、在某个时刻创造出来的东西所吸引，我认为这就是伟大的艺术，做一些与当下相关的事情。
Then there’s only a very limited subset of those things that become timeless, that are still relevant in a different moment, in a different generation or a different century.
那么，那些永恒的事物中只有非常有限的一部分，在不同的时刻、不同的一代或不同的世纪仍然具有相关性。
I think those are the truly great objects.
我认为这些才是真正伟大的物体。
I think there are components of modernism that fit that mold.
我认为现代主义的某些组成部分符合这种模式。
There are components that you look at, and you’re like, “Eh, that’s dated today” and is no longer appreciated by somebody like me or by many people.
当你看到某些组件时，你会想，“呃，今天已经过时了”，并且不再受到像我这样的人或许多人的赞赏。
What attracted you to buying 17th-century Baroque?
是什么吸引您购买 17 世纪巴洛克风格的艺术品？
Because it seems like an outlier from a lot of the rest of your art collection.
因为它看起来像是你其他艺术收藏中的一个异常值。
Baroque is sometimes seen as the opposite of modernism.
巴洛克有时被视为现代主义的对立面。
We have one painting of 17th-century Baroque.
我们有一幅 17 世纪巴洛克风格的画作。
But one’s a lot in — a modernist home, most of all.
但最重要的是，一个人在一个现代主义的家里。
I think the collection Laura and I have built has really tried to look at the history of art and especially figuration over time.
我认为劳拉和我建立的收藏确实试图审视艺术的历史，尤其是随着时间的推移而形成的形象。
From the birth of art until maybe 1500, there was this trend of how do we, the art community, we artists, try to create representation of the figure more and more realistically.
从艺术诞生到大约 1500 年，一直存在着这样一种趋势：我们，艺术界，我们艺术家，如何尝试创造越来越真实的人物形象。
This probably peaked with Leonardo, who then masters even musculoskeletal components of the body.
这可能在莱昂纳多身上达到顶峰，他甚至掌握了身体的肌肉骨骼部分。
Once he’s mastered it, then there’s a big question about where do we go from here?
一旦他掌握了它，那么就会出现一个大问题：我们该何去何从？
Now you have to tell a different story.
现在你必须讲述一个不同的故事。
You have to bring emotion into art.
你必须将情感带入艺术中。
You have to start doing abstraction or bring a new voice or style into the body.
你必须开始进行抽象或将新的声音或风格带入身体。
I love that arc of art history of trying to perfect the body and then trying to move forward.
我喜欢艺术史中努力完善身体然后努力前进的弧线。
We’ve built this collection of objects that are largely around the figuration as you go from the perfection of it, and then to the abstraction of it.
我们构建了这个对象集合，这些对象主要围绕着它的形象，从它的完美，到它的抽象。
The 17th-century Baroque is, again, a moment in time that’s part of that arc that then helps tell the story of the collection.
17 世纪的巴洛克风格再次成为历史弧线的一部分，帮助讲述该系列的故事。
I think the great challenge we have is, we need pieces that talk to each other.
我认为我们面临的巨大挑战是，我们需要能够相互交流的作品。
You can very much end up with clutter by putting together pieces from different cultures, different time periods, different media that don’t speak to each other.
如果你把来自不同文化、不同时期、不同媒体的、互不相关的作品放在一起，最终很可能会变得混乱。
How does African sculpture fit into this picture?
非洲雕塑如何融入这幅画中？
African sculpture, of course, was very inspirational to a number of modernists, Picasso, number one.
当然，非洲雕塑给许多现代主义者带来了很大的启发，毕加索是第一。
Number one, I think I love them as art objects.
第一，我想我喜欢它们作为艺术品。
Almost all of them were used for some type of ritual.
几乎所有这些都用于某种仪式。
These would be Congo pieces?
这些是刚果的碎片吗？
Or what in African sculpture is attracting you?
或者非洲雕塑中的什么吸引了您？
Exactly.
确切地。
There was a lot of it that was developed for pagan rituals, and it was either celebrating birth or death or the transition to adulthood, weddings.
其中很多是为异教仪式而开发的，要么是庆祝出生或死亡，要么是向成年过渡、婚礼。
It’s this isolated culture that still comes up with these objects that are beautiful and had no idea what other people around the world were doing at the time.
正是这种孤立的文化仍然创造出这些美丽的物品，并且不知道当时世界各地的其他人在做什么。
Westerners came there and quickly saw these and were fascinated by these objects and started bringing them back to Europe, and Europeans fell in love with them.
西方人来到那里很快就看到了这些，并被这些物品迷住了，并开始将它们带回欧洲，欧洲人爱上了它们。
There started to be even an export market that developed over time, where Africans were developing pieces specifically for Europeans.
随着时间的推移，甚至开始出现一个出口市场，非洲人专门为欧洲人开发产品。
Then, as African cultures went from pagan religions to Christianity, they started discarding many of those objects.
然后，随着非洲文化从异教转向基督教，他们开始丢弃许多这些物品。
There’s the flip side of it, which is best represented by the Benin bronzes, where a British expedition in 1897 comes in and conquers the royal palace in Benin and steals all those objects and brings them back to Europe.
事情的另一面是贝宁青铜器，1897 年，一支英国探险队入侵贝宁，征服了贝宁王宫，偷走了所有这些物品，并将它们带回欧洲。
I think there’s still this struggle in the West of how to deal with these.
我认为西方仍然存在如何处理这些问题的斗争。
You give them back, you’re not sure they’ll be treated well, right?
你把它们还给你，你不确定它们会得到很好的对待，对吗？
Correct.
正确的。
Also, theft of cultural objects has been happening forever.
此外，文物被盗现象一直在发生。
I think there’s the question of how exactly did the theft occur?
我认为问题是盗窃究竟是如何发生的？
How important were those objects to the culture?
这些物品对文化有多重要？
In the case of these Benin bronzes, I’ve never acquired one because I’ve never been comfortable with that story.
就这些贝宁青铜器而言，我从未获得过一件，因为我对这个故事一直不满意。
I think there’s a spectrum here, and there’s a lot of gray area in the art markets and art.
我认为这里有一个范围，艺术市场和艺术中有很多灰色地带。
Academics and museums have been struggling with many of these questions about where do you draw the line on cultural appropriation, and when do you start giving back objects because that’s a slippery slope for many cultures across many time periods.
学术界和博物馆一直在努力解决许多问题，例如文化挪用的界限在哪里，以及何时开始归还物品，因为对于许多时期的许多文化来说，这都是一个滑坡。
The Mona Lisa, you’d have to return, right?
蒙娜丽莎，你必须回来，对吧？
Exactly.
确切地。
The late-period Alzheimer’s de Koonings.
晚期阿尔茨海默病德库宁斯。
Underrated or overrated?
被低估还是被高估？
I think overrated.
我认为被高估了。
If you didn’t have the de Kooning name on it, and it was just an object, people would look at it and would say, “Yes, it’s somewhat interesting, but we’re not going to ascribe the same certainly, valuation, but art historical importance to it.”
如果上面没有德库宁的名字，而它只是一个物体，人们会看着它并说，“是的，它有点有趣，但我们不会肯定地赋予它同样的价值，而是艺术史的重要性。”
Now, in energy, you had to make a lot of trades, and you hoped to win on average.
现在，在能源方面，你必须进行大量交易，并且你希望平均获胜。
In art, it seems you make a relatively small number of buys, but each one is a very good decision.
在艺术品方面，似乎你购买的数量相对较少，但每一件都是一个非常好的决定。
What’s your overall model of yourself that ties together those two facets of decision-making?
将决策的这两个方面联系在一起的您自己的总体模型是什么？
Art’s hard once your walls are full because then, not only is the question, do I love this piece, but do I love this piece more than the piece I love least in my collection today?
一旦你的墙壁装满了，艺术就很难了，因为那时的问题不仅是我是否喜欢这件作品，而且我是否比今天收藏中我最不喜欢的作品更喜欢这件作品？
That’s a higher hurdle all the time.
这始终是一个更高的障碍。
Trading was and is a great industry because of the immediate feedback loops associated with it that are very rare in most industries.
交易过去和现在都是一个伟大的行业，因为与之相关的即时反馈循环在大多数行业中都非常罕见。
Probably, I’m on the opposite one today in terms of philanthropy, where you have extraordinarily long feedback loops.
也许，我今天在慈善事业方面处于相反的立场，那里有非常长的反馈循环。
Those feedback loops, I think, drive improvement because you can see what’s working, what’s not.
我认为，这些反馈循环可以推动改进，因为你可以看到哪些有效，哪些无效。
It also creates much higher stress.
它还会产生更高的压力。
I’ve appreciated that I had that moment of my career where I had that strong feedback loop and high stress level.
我很感激我职业生涯中的那个时刻，我拥有强大的反馈循环和高压力水平。
It’s not something that I thought was sustainable for my entire life.
我认为这不是我一生都能持续的事情。
On the skills of a philanthropist
论慈善家的技能
Your skill and decision-making at philanthropy, which is done with your wife Laura — how does that fit into the schema?
你在慈善事业上的技能和决策是与你的妻子劳拉（Laura）一起完成的——这如何符合这个模式？
It’s more like trading, more like buying art, something else?
这更像是交易，更像是购买艺术品，还是别的什么？
I think there’re a lot of similarities to private equity or venture capital.
我认为这与私募股权或风险投资有很多相似之处。
This is mostly a money allocation venture.
这主要是一项资金分配业务。
We have some components of being an operating foundation and a lot of internal expertise on areas, and we do a lot of consulting with policymakers internally, but the majority of the effort is in making grants.
我们拥有作为运营基金会的一些组成部分和许多领域的内部专业知识，并且我们在内部与政策制定者进行了大量咨询，但大部分努力都是在提供赠款。
The question on making grants is very similar to the questions on making investments.
关于赠款的问题与关于投资的问题非常相似。
It’s what field do I want to be in?
这是我想从事什么领域？
What team do I want to back?
我想支持哪支球队？
What’s their theory of change?
他们的变革理论是什么？
Do I believe it?
我相信吗？
What components of their organization do they need help in?
他们在组织的哪些方面需要帮助？
And do we need to supplement or require them to supplement with our resources in order to maximize the chance of success?
我们是否需要补充或要求他们补充我们的资源，以最大限度地提高成功的机会？
What do you think is the key skill behind a good philanthropist?
您认为优秀慈善家的关键技能是什么？
It’s hard.
这很难。
I think it’s —
我认为是 ——
Trading’s easy.
交易很容易。
Trading’s easier.
交易更容易。
I think that question is almost like what’s the key skill to be a good businessman, right?
我认为这个问题几乎就像成为一名优秀商人的关键技能是什么，对吗？
There are so many different types of businesses.
有很多不同类型的企业。
There are so many different types of philanthropies and theories of giving and types of giving that one can do that, I think, you have to find something that suits your own personal passions and your own personal strengths and traits, and go from there.
慈善事业、捐赠理论和捐赠类型有很多种，我认为，你必须找到适合你个人热情、个人优势和特质的东西，然后从那里开始。
A lot of your philanthropy seems quite evidence-based and, you would say, rational.
你的很多慈善事业似乎都是基于证据的，而且你会说，是理性的。
Has your belief in that approach strengthened or weakened over time?
随着时间的推移，您对这种方法的信念是加强还是减弱？
I think it’s maintained.
我认为它被维护了。
When we first decided to start giving away very significant sums, we had no vision that it would turn into what is, today, Arnold Ventures with 150 people and three offices, and the number of areas that we’re working in.
当我们第一次决定开始捐赠大量资金时，我们并没有想到它会变成今天拥有 150 名员工和三个办事处以及我们工作领域众多的 Arnold Ventures。
We thought it was, “Let’s find five or six really good social programs that we think can ramp with resources and just go fund those and do this rather passively.” I had enough training to be able to read the academic research, so I start pulling up many of those studies, and it felt like the more I read, the less I knew about what worked in the world.
我们认为，“让我们找到五六个真正好的社会项目，我们认为这些项目可以增加资源，然后为这些项目提供资金，然后相当被动地这样做。”我接受了足够的训练，能够阅读学术研究，所以我开始提取其中许多研究，感觉我读得越多，我对世界上有效的东西就越了解。
That certainly led to this question about what is evidence, what is the integrity of the evidence that’s being put out there to try to convince people to give them money, either policymakers or funders.
这当然引出了一个问题：什么是证据？那些试图说服人们（无论是政策制定者还是资助者）给他们钱的证据的完整性是什么。
Then it led to this question that philanthropy is going to be a lot harder, especially the way that we wanted to do it and the impact that we wanted to have, and it was going to take this effort around .
然后这就引出了这样一个问题：慈善事业将变得更加困难，尤其是我们想要做的方式以及我们想要产生的影响，而这将需要付出这种努力。
.
。
.
。
The core focus of it was around developing better evidence and trying to increase demand for evidence from funders, again, both public funders as well as private funders, and that’s been the core theme of our work ever since.
其核心重点是开发更好的证据并试图增加资助者（公共资助者和私人资助者）对证据的需求，这一直是我们工作的核心主题。
Do you think other funders now demand more evidence, or that’s failed?
您认为其他资助者现在是否要求更多证据，或者这已经失败了？
I think they demand more evidence.
我认为他们需要更多证据。
I think there’s also more poor-quality evidence out there.
我认为还有更多质量较差的证据。
The supply has met the demand.
供应已满足需求。
We started this whole line of work about what we called scientific integrity, academic integrity on how do you improve the process and the incentive system of academic research because there was this realization we had that everybody in the chain was incentivized to find the positive result, whether it was the funder, the academic, the university, the journal, or the popular press.
我们开始了关于我们所谓的科学诚信、学术诚信的整套工作，即如何改进学术研究的过程和激励制度，因为我们认识到，链条中的每个人都受到激励去寻找积极的结果，无论是资助者、学术界、大学、期刊还是大众媒体。
Everybody wanted to find and publicize the positive result, and so there were a lot of positive results that were coming out that were either done with low bars of integrity and quality, or at the extreme end — and this is relatively rare — but bordering on absolute fraud in the industry.
每个人都想找到并公布积极的结果，因此出现了很多积极的结果，这些结果要么是诚信度和质量较低的，要么是极端的————这种情况相对罕见——但在行业中近乎绝对的欺诈。
Let’s say I’m a person of great means, and I come to you.
假设我是一个很有钱的人，我来找你。
I say, “John, I think prison is immoral, but I don’t want to just release Charles Manson.
我说：“约翰，我认为监狱是不道德的，但我不想就释放查尔斯·曼森。
Where should I put my philanthropic efforts?” What do you tell them?
我应该把我的慈善努力放在哪里？”你告诉他们什么？
What have you learned?
你学到了什么？
I think there’s this fundamental question, if somebody’s going to get released from prison — which, 95 percent of the people who are in the prison system today are going to get released back into society — do we want that person to have spent the past 10 years in a gang fighting for their life, doing nothing productively?
我认为有一个基本问题，如果有人要从监狱释放出来——“今天监狱系统中 95% 的人都会被释放回到社会”——“我们是否希望这个人在过去 10 年里一直在帮派中为自己的生命而战，而没有做任何有成效的事情？”
Or do we want that person to have been working on education, working on skills, have been working on their addiction, et cetera?
或者我们是否希望那个人一直致力于教育、技能、戒毒等等？
I think 100 out of 100 people will choose the latter.
我想100人中有100人会选择后者。
We have a system where the political economy of putting money into the prison system for most jurisdictions is very low.
我们的系统中，大多数司法管辖区将资金投入监狱系统的政治经济性非常低。
So, much of our prison system actually looks like the former, where it’s become the largest mental health institution, the largest place for people with addiction, the largest place with people who have a lot of time on their hands and are under-skilled and undereducated and don’t get any improvement in those things.
所以，我们的监狱系统实际上看起来很像前者，它已经成为最大的精神卫生机构，最大的吸毒成瘾者的地方，最大的地方，那里的人有很多空闲时间，但技能不足、教育不足，在这些方面没有得到任何改善。
I think the real value is, how do you improve conditions within prisons?
我认为真正的价值在于，如何改善监狱内的条件？
Is there a structural reform that would boost the incentive to do that?
是否有结构性改革可以增强这样做的动力？
Or you just think telling people they should improve the conditions is what we should be directing our efforts at?
或者你只是认为告诉人们他们应该改善条件才是我们应该努力的方向？
What we’re very interested in, and haven’t gotten all the pieces together yet, is the equivalent of the charter school, but in prisons.
我们非常感兴趣，但还没有把所有的部分整合在一起，相当于特许学校，但在监狱里。
Can you get a nonprofit to run a prison and try these things?
你能找一个非营利组织来运营监狱并尝试这些事情吗？
That nonprofit can supplement the standard money that’s coming in from the public sector with private donations and probably a greater focus on volunteers coming into the prison.
该非营利组织可以通过私人捐款来补充来自公共部门的标准资金，并且可能会更加关注进入监狱的志愿者。
Just try this as a model, as a prototype, and see what the effects are.
只需尝试将其作为模型、原型，看看效果如何。
Then do a long-term evaluation as to what happens to the people when they return to society, and what’s the impact on the economics as well as recidivism.
然后做一个长期评估，人们回归社会后会发生什么，对经济和累犯有什么影响。
Do the long-term cost-benefit on a financial basis and try to see if you can prove that this is an appropriate model for the public to start funding.
在财务基础上进行长期成本效益分析，并尝试看看是否可以证明这是公众开始资助的合适模式。
On fixing tax laws
关于修订税法
Let’s say we put you in charge of everything.
假设我们让你负责一切。
How do you fix our tax laws?
你们如何修正我们的税法？
You can just do it.
你就可以这么做。
You’re Congress, you’re the president, you’re the Supreme Court.
你是国会，你是总统，你是最高法院。
Big question.
大问题。
We have a system today where I think it’s easier to turn dials than to start something new.
我们今天有一个系统，我认为转动表盘比开始新事物更容易。
We just have these dials that have existed because they’ve existed.
我们只是拥有这些已经存在的表盘，因为它们已经存在了。
They were easy to do historically, and so that’s what we do.
从历史上看，它们很容易做到，所以这就是我们所做的。
Things like Pigouvian taxes — which most people agree that you would like to tax things that are bad rather than tax things that are good — are extraordinarily hard to get started in the US, whether that’s on carbon or things like sugar.
像庇古税这样的东西——“大多数人都同意，你想对不好的东西征税，而不是对好的东西征税”——在美国很难开始，无论是针对碳还是糖之类的东西。
I think that’s one.
我认为这是一个。
I think a second is, you’d rather tax money that has been made in the past than tax money that’s to be made in the future.
我认为第二个问题是，你宁愿对过去赚到的钱征税，也不愿对未来赚到的钱征税。
I think there’re fewer distortions.
我认为扭曲会更少。
I’m not talking about a wealth tax, which I think is not able to be implemented, but I think under the step-up basis that we have today, where —
我不是在谈论财富税，我认为这是无法实施的，但我认为在我们今天的阶梯基础上， -
So, for capital gains.
因此，为了资本收益。
Exactly, I think is the original sin of the tax code.
确切地说，我认为这就是税法的原罪。
I think there’re real questions about how should endowments, including private foundations, which is this legacy of power because money was made in the past or money was contributed to an organization in the past, the tax code then gives favorable treatment to that.
我认为，真正的问题是，捐赠基金，包括私人基金会，应该如何进行捐赠，这是权力的遗产，因为钱是过去赚的，或者钱是过去捐给组织的，税法会给予优惠待遇。
You have organizations that are well-resourced today because they were strong historically or were funded by somebody who was successful historically, but the tax code makes those organizations stronger for no good reason.
如今，有些组织拥有充足的资源，因为它们在历史上很强大，或者是由历史上成功的人资助的，但税法却毫无理由地让这些组织变得更强大。
I think there should be a public test that those organizations should be required to, if they could, to maintain their influence, to convince new resources to go to them rather than just get a tax benefit.
我认为应该进行一次公开测试，要求这些组织（如果可以的话）保持其影响力，说服新资源流向它们，而不仅仅是获得税收优惠。
The five-to-six spend-down requirement for foundations — is that the right number?
对基金会的五到六笔支出要求 ——这个数字合适吗？
Should it be higher?
应该更高吗？
I think it should be higher.
我认为应该更高。
The donor-advised fund out — that should be eliminated or kept?
捐助者建议的基金应该取消还是保留？
That should be eliminated.
那应该被消除。
If it’s not 5 percent to 6 percent, what should it be?
如果不是5%到6%，应该是多少？
I think the number should be a little bit higher than the expected financial return, or the expected real financial return.
我认为这个数字应该比预期的财务回报，或者预期的实际财务回报高一点。
Which imposes the test of bringing in new money.
这对引入新资金提出了考验。
That’s the key thing.
这是关键。
Exactly.
确切地。
These organizations, including my foundation, should get weaker over time and not stronger.
这些组织，包括我的基金会，随着时间的推移应该会变得更弱，而不是更强。
Electoral reform, political reform — and I mean the systems by which we choose leaders and policies — do you have favored ways you would change those?
选举改革、政治改革 ——我指的是我们选择领导人和政策的制度 ——你有更喜欢的改变这些的方式吗？
I think a lot of the original sin of the elections and the electoral system in the US is the primary system and non-competitive races between the parties, so the vast majority of House seats — the only competition happens in the primary.
我认为美国选举和选举制度的很多原罪就是初选制度和各党之间的非竞争性竞选，所以绝大多数众议院席位 ——唯一的竞争发生在初选。
The person who’s more likely to show up in the primary is more extreme than the average or median Republican or Democratic voter.
更有可能出现在初选的人比共和党或民主党选民的平均或中位数更加极端。
In many jurisdictions, the independents are not allowed to vote in the primary.
在许多司法管辖区，独立人士不得在初选中投票。
There’s more money that comes in from the extremes, and so you end up with a legislature, a Congress that is more extreme than the people are.
更多的钱来自极端，所以最终会出现一个比人民更极端的立法机关、国会。
The independents or the moderates are very much underrepresented in today’s political system, and it eliminates a lot of the incentive, or creates disincentive, for internal party debate.
在当今的政治体系中，独立人士或温和派的代表人数严重不足，这消除了党内辩论的很多动力，或者造成了阻碍。
So, we should do single transferable vote or something else?
那么，我们应该进行单一可转让投票还是其他什么？
I think non-partisan primaries is —
我认为无党派初选是 ——
But that will end up working like single transferable vote because you have to rate then four or five people, right?
但这最终会像单一可转让投票一样工作，因为你必须对四五个人进行评分，对吗？
Exactly, yes.
没错，是的。
Ireland does that, as I’m sure you know.
爱尔兰就是这样做的，我相信你知道。
While it seems to work fine, is there some big advantage they get from that?
虽然看起来效果不错，但他们从中获得了一些很大的优势吗？
Parts of Australia do it.
澳大利亚部分地区这样做。
Again, it works fine, but I don’t look at those places and envy them.
再说一次，它工作得很好，但我不会看着那些地方并羡慕它们。
Right, and I think there’s no silver bullet in this stuff.
是的，我认为这个东西没有灵丹妙药。
I don’t think there’s any electoral reform that’s going to solve all the problems.
我认为任何选举改革都无法解决所有问题。
A lot of it is built in.
很多都是内置的。
A lot of it is things like the media incentives, human nature as to how we like to take information and prefer to criticize the other side rather than do real criticism of our own internal beliefs.
很多是因为媒体的激励、人性，我们喜欢如何获取信息，更喜欢批评对方，而不是真正批评我们自己的内部信仰。
So, this stuff is marginal, but I think the importance of the electoral system is so great that marginal benefits have significant impact.
所以，这个东西是边际的，但我认为选举制度的重要性是如此之大，以至于边际效益会产生重大影响。
There’s a common impression — both for start-ups and for philanthropy — that doing much with K–12 education or preschool just hasn’t mattered that much or hasn’t succeeded that much.
人们普遍认为，“无论是对于初创企业还是慈善事业来说”，在 K-12 教育或学前教育方面所做的努力并没有那么重要，或者没有取得那么大的成功。
Do you agree or disagree?
你同意还是不同意？
I agree.
我同意。
I think the ed reform movement has been, as a whole, a significant disappointment.
我认为教育改革运动总体上令人非常失望。
I think there have been isolated pockets of excellence.
我认为存在一些孤立的优秀人才。
It’s been very difficult to learn how to scale that.
学习如何扩展它是非常困难的。
I think that’s largely true of many social programs or many programs that are delivered by people to people, that you can find a single site that works extraordinarily well because they have a fantastic leader, and that leader might be able to open up a few more sites.
我认为对于许多社交项目或许多由人们向人们提供的项目来说，这在很大程度上是正确的，你可以找到一个工作得非常好的网站，因为他们有一个出色的领导者，并且该领导者可能能够开设更多网站。
But then, when you start to scale it to 50 sites, and start to go across the nation, it all mean reverts back to what the whole system is providing.
但是，当您开始将其扩展到 50 个站点并开始覆盖全国时，这一切都意味着恢复到整个系统所提供的功能。
That said, I do think there’s a lot of value in changing the incentives of the system and having the rewards and natural growth cycles and evolutionary components that are so strong and have been beneficial in the business world also go to the K–12 world.
也就是说，我确实认为改变系统的激励机制、让奖励、自然增长周期和进化组成部分具有很大的价值，这些在商业世界中非常强大，并且对 K-12 世界有益。
What I mean is that the service providers that are good and are delivering good results — both for parents and for kids — should grow faster than ones that aren’t.
我的意思是，那些优秀的、能够为父母和孩子带来良好结果的服务提供商应该比那些不好的服务提供商成长得更快。
Right now, it’s kind of the same.
现在，情况是一样的。
I think there’s a real question about whether government can be both the regulator and the service provider of the same program, which is what essentially independent school districts are today.
我认为，一个真正的问题是，政府是否可以既是同一项目的监管者，又是同一项目的服务提供者，这就是今天独立学区的本质。
I think the natural role of government is to be the regulator, and that they should be regulating third-party nonprofit providers.
我认为政府的自然角色是监管者，他们应该监管第三方非营利提供商。
That model is what we support and has been rolling out across the nation.
我们支持这种模式，并已在全国范围内推广。
I think that the evidence is clear that it’s a better system, but it’s not delivering transformational results.
我认为有证据表明这是一个更好的系统，但它并没有带来变革性的结果。
When it comes to philanthropy, what’s something important you’ve learned from your wife, Laura?
谈到慈善事业，您从妻子劳拉（Laura）那里学到了什么重要的东西？
She’s great at the organizational components of it, how do you manage an organization, the communication components.
她非常擅长组织的组成部分、如何管理组织、沟通的组成部分。
Coming from the trading background, that’s not my skill set.
从交易背景来看，这不是我的技能。
I love to dig into the details of specific policies and get into the nitty-gritty of the design of a system.
我喜欢深入研究具体政策的细节并深入了解系统设计的本质。
Laura very much thinks about the big picture and about how AV can be a more effective organization in the macro level.
Laura 非常注重大局，以及 AV 如何在宏观层面上成为一个更有效的组织。
Last two questions.
最后两个问题。
First, what’s something you’ve learned about markets or society that you didn’t believe 10 years ago?
首先，关于市场或社会，有哪些是您 10 年前不相信的事情？
I didn’t believe 10 years ago.
10年前我还不相信。
You can make it 15, whatever.
不管怎样，你可以把它变成15。
I think on society, it’s very hard to get people off of their baseline for the long term.
我认为在社会上，从长远来看，很难让人们脱离他们的底线。
There’re a lot of interventions that can happen that’ll change somebody’s short-term prospects, whether that’s a job training program or an addiction treatment program or an education program.
有很多干预措施可以改变某人的短期前景，无论是职业培训计划、成瘾治疗计划还是教育计划。
You can bump them off that baseline for a little bit, and over time, there’s reversion to the mean.
你可以将它们稍微偏离基线，随着时间的推移，就会回归平均值。
It’s made it very difficult to find social interventions that pass the benefit-cost test over the long term.
这使得找到能够通过长期效益成本测试的社会干预措施变得非常困难。
I think that’s why we were talking earlier about evaluations.
我想这就是我们之前讨论评估的原因。
We’re very focused on the evaluations that we fund, of trying to do long-term effects of programs and policies.
我们非常注重我们资助的评估，努力实现项目和政策的长期影响。
Oftentimes, if you’re just looking at what the six-month effect is, you find an effect and a cost-benefit ratio that’s not relevant to what actual policymaking should be.
通常，如果您只关注六个月的影响，您会发现与实际政策制定无关的影响和成本效益比。
Last question — what will you learn about next?
最后一个问题 — 接下来你会学到什么？
We’re really digging into housing policy and housing finance.
我们正在深入研究住房政策和住房融资。
Housing finance is one of the most complicated issues that I’ve seen in this space.
住房融资是我在这个领域见过的最复杂的问题之一。
Trying to understand it at a superficial level has given me no insight, so I think it’s one that I really need to spend some time in.
试图从表面上理解它并没有给我任何洞察力，所以我认为这是我真正需要花一些时间的。
As we start proposing how to fix these systems, part of it is, we can’t just complain that the existing system is too expensive and too slow.
当我们开始提出如何修复这些系统时，我们不能只是抱怨现有系统太昂贵且太慢。
We have to have real, specific, and tangible policies about how to change it, how to improve it.
我们必须有关于如何改变它、如何改进它的真实、具体和切实的政策。
John Arnold, thank you very much.
约翰·阿诺德，非常感谢你。
Thank you.
谢谢。