Jared Diamond on Leaders, Luck, and Irreplaceability (Ep. 289)
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today, I am greatly honored to be speaking with Jared Diamond.
今天，我非常荣幸能与贾里德·戴蒙德交谈。
Jared studied physiology at Harvard and Cambridge and became initially a leading expert on the gallbladder.
贾里德在哈佛大学和剑桥大学学习生理学，最初成为胆囊方面的领先专家。
He is also an ornithologist, anthropologist, sociologist, evolutionary biologist, ecologist, and environmental historian with a working knowledge of archaeology, genetics, and the epidemiology of human diseases.
他也是一位鸟类学家、人类学家、社会学家、进化生物学家、生态学家和环境历史学家，拥有考古学、遗传学和人类疾病流行病学的工作知识。
On top of all that, he is professor of geography at UCLA.
最重要的是，他是加州大学洛杉矶分校的地理学教授。
He has a new and notable book out called Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) Do Leaders Matter?
他出版了一本著名的新书，名为《利润、先知、教练和国王：（何时）领导者重要吗？》
Jared, welcome.
贾里德，欢迎。
Thank you.
谢谢。
It’s a pleasure to be with you.
很高兴和你在一起。
On whether any leader is irreplaceable
关于是否有任何领导者是不可替代的
Who do you think is the least replaceable leader in human history?
您认为人类历史上最不可替代的领导人是谁？
Wow.
哇。
Wow.
哇。
The least replaceable leader in human history.
人类历史上最不可替代的领导人。
Frankly, my answer is none.
坦率地说，我的答案是否定的。
There has been no unreplaceable leader in human history because over a long time, things wash out.
人类历史上没有不可替代的领导者，因为时间长了，事情就会被淘汰。
A candidate, of course, would be Jesus Christ, but there were half a dozen other prophets in the Roman Empire at that time discussed in the New Testament.
当然，耶稣基督是一个候选人，但新约中还讨论了当时罗马帝国的六位其他先知。
If Christ had died in childbirth, one of those other prophets might have taken over.
如果基督死于难产，其他先知中的一位可能会接替他。
I would say that in the long run, there is no leader that has made a difference.
我想说，从长远来看，没有哪个领导者能带来改变。
Well, you say “might have taken over,” but that’s probabilistic, right?
好吧，你说“可能已经接管了”，但这是概率性的，对吧？
Say with a 40 percent chance, someone else would have taken over.
假设有 40% 的可能性，其他人会接手。
It still seems in expected value terms, Christ made an enormous difference.
从预期价值来看，基督似乎仍然带来了巨大的改变。
Certainly, his religion made an enormous difference.
当然，他的宗教信仰产生了巨大的影响。
Christ himself was the charismatic founder, but a religion needs three things: It needs a charismatic founder, it needs an organizer, and often it needs a general because new religions often face opposition.
基督本人是魅力非凡的创始人，但宗教需要三件事：它需要一个魅力非凡的创始人，它需要一个组织者，而且通常还需要一个将军，因为新的宗教经常面临反对。
The organizer for Christianity was St. Paul.
基督教的组织者是圣保罗。
In the case of the Mahdi’s religion of the Sudan in the late 1800s, the Mahdi was the charismatic founder, and he was the organizer, and he was the general.
就1800年代末苏丹马赫迪宗教而言，马赫迪是魅力型创始人，他是组织者，他是将军。
In the case of Islam, Muhammad was the founder and the organizer and the general.
就伊斯兰教而言，穆罕默德是创始人、组织者和将军。
Religions may have three roles, some of which are sometimes played by the same person.
宗教可能具有三种角色，其中一些角色有时由同一个人扮演。
Without the figure of Muhammad at exactly the time he came along, is it not quite easy to imagine a Middle East not unified under Islam, not unified with the common language of Arabic?
如果没有穆罕默德出现时的形象，是不是很容易想象中东不统一于伊斯兰教之下，不统一于阿拉伯语的共同语言？
In some ways, maybe a bit more like the Caucasus, which remains a crazy quilt of different patterns.
在某些方面，也许更像高加索地区，它仍然是一张由不同图案组成的疯狂被子。
Thus, Muhammad is one of the three or four most consequential leaders ever.
因此，穆罕默德是有史以来三、四位最重要的领导人之一。
That’s possible.
这是可能的。
That’s a big question.
这是一个大问题。
It’s harder to become clear about Muhammad than it is about Christ, because we don’t know what the weather was like in Arabia at that time.
了解穆罕默德比了解基督更难，因为我们不知道当时阿拉伯半岛的天气如何。
Weather makes a big difference.
天气有很大的不同。
If it was rainy, that would mean lots of plant growth for lots of babies and for feeding an army.
如果下雨，就意味着大量的植物生长，可以养活很多婴儿，也可以养活一支军队。
We just don’t have information on the weather in Arabia at that time.
我们只是没有有关当时阿拉伯半岛天气的信息。
A counter-example is Genghis Khan, who developed the largest land empire in world history, all the way from China to Poland.
一个反例是成吉思汗，他建立了世界历史上最大的陆地帝国，从中国一直到波兰。
Recently, why did Genghis Khan do it when there were other steppe leaders like Adolf Hühnlein and Timur the Turk?
最近，当还有阿道夫·许莱因和突厥帖木儿等其他草原领导人时，成吉思汗为什么要这样做呢？
We’ve learned recently that the wettest time on the steppes in the last 2,000 years was around the time of Genghis’s birth.
我们最近了解到，过去 2000 年来草原上最潮湿的时期是在成吉思汗出生的时候。
He was born at exactly the right time at the right place.
他出生在正确的时间、正确的地点。
If he had been born 200 miles further away and 20 years earlier, we wouldn’t know anything about him.
如果他出生在 200 英里之外、早 20 年前，我们就对他一无所知。
In the case of Muhammad, we just don’t know whether the time of his birth was a particularly propitious time to found a religion in that area or not.
就穆罕默德而言，我们只是不知道他的出生时间是否是在该地区建立宗教的特别有利的时间。
The very notion that the two first names we’re talking about, they’re both religious leaders, right?
我们正在谈论的两个名字，他们都是宗教领袖，对吗？
They’re not kings.
他们不是国王。
They’re not inventors.
他们不是发明家。
Do you think that suggests a vision of the world where it’s ideas that really matter and somewhat at variance with your own geography-based theories?
您是否认为这表明了一种世界观，其中的想法确实很重要，并且与您自己的基于地理的理论有些不同？
My own geography-based theories, people often say, “Jared, have you changed your mind?
我自己的基于地理的理论，人们经常说，“贾里德，你改变主意了吗？
Here’s this book about individuals.
这是一本关于个人的书。
Your other books, Guns, Germs, and Steel, and so on, are about whole societies for 10,000 years.” No, I haven’t changed my mind.
你的其他书《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》等等，都是关于一万年来整个社会的。”不，我没有改变主意。
It’s that I’m asking different questions.
这是我在问不同的问题。
For questions such as, why is it that you and I are now speaking the English language, and you and I, evidently of European background, but we’re standing on the land of Native Americans.
对于这样的问题，为什么你和我现在说的是英语，而你和我显然有欧洲背景，但我们却站在美洲原住民的土地上。
That’s long-term history.
那是长期的历史。
The explanation is not individual leaders, but it has to do with plants and animals available for domestication in the Fertile Crescent versus in the New World.
这个解释与个别领导人无关，但与新月沃地和新世界可供驯化的植物和动物有关。
That’s a question whose answer does not depend upon individual leaders.
这个问题的答案并不取决于个别领导人。
Whereas, if you want to know why Amazon is now the largest everything store, a store that cares so much about individual customers and doesn’t care about paying dividends to its investors, that has everything to do with one person, Jeff Bezos.
然而，如果你想知道为什么亚马逊现在是最大的一切商店，一家如此关心个人客户而不关心向投资者支付股息的商店，这与一个人杰夫·贝佐斯有关。
Is it correct to think of your new book, again, Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings, as, in essence, the error term for Guns, Germs, and Steel?
再次将你的新书《利润、先知、教练和国王》视为《枪炮、病菌和钢铁》的错误术语，这是否正确？
No, I would just say it’s a different book about a different question on a different timescale.
不，我只是说这是一本不同的书，在不同的时间尺度上讨论不同的问题。
There is some larger model that ties it all together, right, in your mind?
在您看来，有一些更大的模型将它们联系在一起，对吗？
Certainly, my current book—yes—is looking at leaders not just in the sphere of politics, which is where I first got interested in this subject, but also in the business world and in the sports world, sports coaches, and in the world of religion.
当然，我现在的书——是的——不仅关注政治领域的领导者（这是我最初对这个主题感兴趣的地方），而且还关注商业世界、体育世界、体育教练和宗教世界的领导者。
It turns out that there are common questions and common methods used for studying leaders in these different spheres.
事实证明，研究这些不同领域的领导者有一些共同的问题和共同的方法。
For example, I hadn’t realized before I got into this area that much of the research on sports coaches has been done by business school professors because the questions of leadership that business school professors ask can be answered more easily in sports.
例如，在进入这个领域之前，我并没有意识到很多关于体育教练的研究都是由商学院教授完成的，因为商学院教授提出的领导力问题可以在体育领域更容易得到回答。
In sports, there’s a game every week.
在体育方面，每周都有一场比赛。
All the teams play by the same rules.
所有球队都遵循相同的规则。
There may be 24 teams in the same league.
同一联赛中可能有 24 支球队。
It’s reproducible.
它是可重现的。
Business is not so reproducible.
商业并不是那么可复制的。
Much of the work about the methods for assessing leaders in business have been developed by business school professors testing their methods and developing the methods in the world of sports.
关于评估商界领袖的方法的大部分工作都是由商学院教授开发的，他们测试了他们的方法，并在体育界开发了这些方法。
In politics, do you think destructive leaders matter more than constructive leaders just because it’s easier and cheaper to destroy?
在政治上，你认为破坏性领导者比建设性领导者更重要，只是因为破坏性领导者更容易、更便宜吗？
No. When one looks at tables of leaders who made a difference in the 20th century, the list of constructive leaders is, if anything, slightly longer than the list of destructive leaders.
不会。当人们查看 20 世纪做出贡献的领导人名单时，会发现建设性领导人的名单（如果有的话）比破坏性领导人的名单稍长一些。
Say we had not had Roosevelt and Truman, but we had other presidents, that seems to be a much smaller difference than if there had been no Hitler.
假设我们没有罗斯福和杜鲁门，但我们有其他总统，这似乎比没有希特勒要小得多。
That is true.
确实如此。
Hitler is certainly the destructive leader who made the biggest difference in the 20th century.
希特勒无疑是一位破坏性的领导人，他为 20 世纪带来了最大的改变。
I was born in 1937, so I grew up in the shadow of Hitler.
我出生于1937年，所以我是在希特勒的阴影下长大的。
Hitler made a difference.
希特勒改变了现状。
Why?
为什么？
Because he was ultra-charismatic as a speaker, unfortunately, because he was a very skilled manipulator and deceiver.
不幸的是，因为他作为一个演讲者具有超凡的魅力，因为他是一个非常熟练的操纵者和欺骗者。
He deceived not only Neville Chamberlain and other politicians.
他不仅欺骗了内维尔·张伯伦，还欺骗了其他政客。
He deceived German generals, and he deceived his fellow Nazis.
他欺骗了德国将军，也欺骗了他的纳粹同胞。
He was a big risk-taker.
他是一个敢于冒险的人。
He was not willing to wait.
他不愿意等待。
He was convinced that he would die early, and so he took big risks.
他确信自己会早死，所以他冒了很大的风险。
He threw everything on a single cast.
他把所有的事情都集中在一个演员上。
Sometimes his risk paid off, as in his invasion of France or in sending German troops into the Rhineland when it was unprotected.
有时他的冒险得到了回报，例如入侵法国或在莱茵兰未受保护的情况下派遣德国军队进入莱茵兰。
Sometimes his gamble didn’t pay off, most notably when he did not pull back the German army surrounded at Stalingrad, or when he threw his last tank armies into the Battle of the Bulge.
有时他的赌博没有得到回报，尤其是当他没有撤回被包围在斯大林格勒的德军，或者当他将最后的坦克军投入突出部战役时。
Hitler was a very distinctive person.
希特勒是一个非常有特色的人。
Do you think there are any individual leaders who have really mattered for the history of Papua New Guinea (PNG)?
您认为有哪些个人领导人对巴布亚新几内亚 (PNG) 的历史真正重要？
For the history of Papua New Guinea, really interesting question.
对于巴布亚新几内亚的历史，这是一个非常有趣的问题。
I would say no. The closest one to it was the founding president of Papua New Guinea, who could have made a big mess.
我会说不。最接近的人是巴布亚新几内亚的开国总统，他可能会造成大混乱。
He didn’t make a big mess.
他没有惹出大麻烦。
On the other hand, he wasn’t as spectacularly successful as Seretse Khama, the founding president of Botswana.
另一方面，他并不像博茨瓦纳开国总统塞雷茨·卡马那样取得巨大成功。
What’s your underlying model for why, in PNG, the leaders matter so little?
为什么在巴布亚新几内亚，领导人的影响如此之小，你的基本模型是什么？
Is it that geography is so important there, or that it’s never been unified, or that it’s so poor?
是那里的地理因素如此重要，还是它从未统一过，或者是它是如此贫穷？
Good question.
好问题。
PNG was not unified until the Australian colonial era, and even today, PNG has something like 700 different languages.
巴布亚新几内亚直到澳大利亚殖民时代才实现统一，即使在今天，巴布亚新几内亚也有大约 700 种不同的语言。
The premiers of PNG tend to be devoted to their tribal group, even to their clan, or to their group of tribes.
巴布亚新几内亚的总理往往致力于他们的部落群体，甚至是他们的氏族或他们的部落群体。
PNG has never had a national unity, and it’s had a struggle to build a national unity today.
巴布亚新几内亚从未有过民族团结，今天它也为建立民族团结而奋斗。
How do you identify leaders who simply prevented events?
您如何识别那些只是阻止事件发生的领导者？
There’s no great legacy to their name, but they stopped some very bad or maybe very good things from happening.
他们的名字没有留下什么伟大的遗产，但他们阻止了一些非常糟糕或可能非常好的事情的发生。
They’re just a footnote to history, but they mattered a great deal.
它们只是历史的一个脚注，但意义重大。
Leaders who prevented events.
阻止事件发生的领导人。
One can say that Winston Churchill prevented events.
可以说，温斯顿·丘吉尔阻止了这一事件的发生。
He prevented the conquest of England by Hitler.
他阻止了希特勒对英国的征服。
He then joined with Roosevelt to overcome Hitler.
随后他与罗斯福联手击败希特勒。
Other leaders who prevented events.
其他阻止事件发生的领导人。
Most of the leaders that we think of are the leaders who did things rather than prevented things from happening.
我们所想到的大多数领导者都是做事而不是阻止事情发生的领导者。
We undervalue the preventers.
我们低估了预防者。
Churchill was very active.
丘吉尔非常活跃。
He both did things and prevented things.
他既做了事，又阻止了事。
Maybe Khrushchev prevented World War III.
也许赫鲁晓夫阻止了第三次世界大战。
We don’t quite ever see that in the data in any obvious way, but he might have been extraordinarily consequential.
我们在数据中并没有以任何明显的方式看到这一点，但他可能具有非凡的影响力。
Yes, John Kennedy.
是的，约翰·肯尼迪。
What was probably the most important thing that John Kennedy did?
约翰·肯尼迪做过的最重要的事情可能是什么？
It was the handling of the Cuban Missile Crisis.
这是古巴导弹危机的处理。
I remember it very, very well.
我记得非常非常清楚。
I was at a dinner when Kennedy made his speech announcing the crisis.
当肯尼迪发表讲话宣布这场危机时，我正在吃晚宴。
For a week, it was touch and go whether the world would have ended up in nuclear war.
在一周的时间里，世界是否会陷入核战争一直悬而未决。
In fact, after the crisis was over and the Russians and the Americans began to talk to each other, we realized how close we and they had come.
事实上，在危机结束、俄罗斯人和美国人开始相互交谈后，我们意识到我们和他们已经走得很近了。
There was a Russian submarine whose captain wanted to launch a nuclear missile.
有一艘俄罗斯潜艇，其船长想要发射核导弹。
It was the other officers on the crew who prevented the captain, so it was a close call.
是船员的其他军官阻止了船长，所以这是一次千钧一发的机会。
Kennedy handled the discussions in the Cuban Missile Crisis brilliantly.
肯尼迪出色地处理了古巴导弹危机的讨论。
We could say, yes, the most important thing that Kennedy did was to prevent nuclear war.
我们可以说，是的，肯尼迪所做的最重要的事情就是防止核战争。
With the onset of powerful artificial intelligence, will political leaders matter less or more?
随着强大人工智能的出现，政治领导人的重要性会减少还是增加？
Interesting question.
有趣的问题。
I’m pausing because my sons, if they heard this conversation, would say, “For heaven’s sakes, don’t ask our father about artificial intelligence because he is the least competent person technologically we know.” I will now show you the most advanced device I have.
我停下来是因为，如果我的儿子们听到这段对话，他们会说：“看在上帝的份上，不要向我们的父亲询问人工智能的问题，因为他是我们所知道的技术能力最差的人。”现在我将向您展示我拥有的最先进的设备。
It is a cell phone.
这是一部手机。
That’s enough.
这就够了。
My sons and my wife forced me to get the cell phone.
我的儿子和妻子强迫我拿手机。
Therefore, I’m not competent to express any opinion about artificial intelligence.
因此，我没有资格对人工智能发表任何看法。
Now, in some of your particular explanations in the book, I’d like to push on a few of those.
现在，在你在书中的一些具体解释中，我想进一步阐述其中的一些。
I read you as arguing that Rachel Carson mattered a good deal.
我读到你认为雷切尔·卡森很重要。
I’m not sure that’s true because it seems there’s a lot of countries that when people get to something like $28,000 per capita income that they just turn much greener, and they clean up their air.
我不确定这是真的，因为似乎有很多国家，当人们的人均收入达到 28,000 美元时，他们就会变得更加环保，并且净化空气。
We sometimes call that the environmental Kuznets curve.
我们有时称之为环境库兹涅茨曲线。
The fact that there’s a broad class of those countries, doesn’t that mean Rachel Carson probably didn’t matter that much?
事实上，这些国家有一个广泛的阶层，这是否意味着雷切尔·卡森可能并不那么重要？
At minimum, Rachel Carson jumped out of the environmental movement about a decade before it would have been jumpstarted.
至少，雷切尔·卡森（Rachel Carson）在环保运动发起之前大约十年就退出了。
Yes, an environmental movement was starting in the United States then, but it had not gotten a great deal of attention.
是的，当时美国正在掀起一场环保运动，但并没有引起很大的关注。
Her book, Silent Spring, that book and Darwin’s Origin of Species are probably the two books by scientists that have had the biggest impact in the last century.
她的书《寂静的春天》和达尔文的《物种起源》可能是上个世纪影响最大的两本科学家著作。
When her book was published, the very next day, it was Senator, I think, Ribicoff of Connecticut, who announced the next day that he was launching a US government investigation into toxic chemicals.
当她的书出版的第二天，我想康涅狄格州的里比科夫参议员在第二天宣布他将启动美国政府对有毒化学品的调查。
She certainly caused the environmental movement to develop earlier than it would have developed afterwards.
她确实促使环保运动比后来发展得更早。
You’re correct: The environmental movement would have developed perhaps later and more slowly.
你是对的：环保运动也许会发展得更晚、更慢。
It seems if anyone is relatively easily substitutable, it was her.
看来，如果说有一个人比较容易被替代的话，那就是她了。
It might have come a year later, but there are plenty of people writing and thinking about the environment.
它可能是一年后才出现的，但有很多人在写作和思考环境问题。
It seems odd to suggest that Jesus is just one of many prophets of his time, he would have been substitutable, but that Rachel Carson had this unique role.
说耶稣只是他那个时代的众多先知之一似乎很奇怪，他本来是可以替代的，但雷切尔·卡森却扮演了这个独特的角色。
Well, this is interesting.
嗯，这很有趣。
When Rachel Carson wrote Silent Spring, she was a scientist, and she was respected by other scientists.
当雷切尔·卡森（Rachel Carson）撰写《寂静的春天》时，她是一名科学家，并受到其他科学家的尊重。
When she asked questions, they answered her questions.
当她提出问题时，他们回答了她的问题。
At that time, there was no professional scientist writing books for a broad public.
当时，还没有专业科学家为广大公众写书。
Yes, I remember it well because I was getting into science in those days.
是的，我记得很清楚，因为那时我正在进入科学领域。
In those days, the belief among scientists, professional scientists, was that if you write for the public, it’s because you’re washed up as a scientist.
在那些日子里，科学家、职业科学家的信念是，如果你为公众写作，那是因为你作为一个科学家已经被淘汰了。
You’re prostituting yourself.
你正在出卖自己。
In fact, the first scientists who achieved success in writing for the public, Paul Ehrlich and Carl Sagan, did not achieve their success until about 20 years after Rachel Carson.
事实上，第一批为公众写作取得成功的科学家保罗·埃利希和卡尔·萨根直到雷切尔·卡森大约 20 年后才取得成功。
Rachel Carson had some advantages compared to the scientists who later became famous.
与后来成名的科学家相比，雷切尔·卡森（Rachel Carson）有一些优势。
She was not a university professor, so nobody could say she was prostituting herself.
她不是大学教授，所以没有人能说她卖淫。
She was a woman.
她是一个女人。
She wrote beautifully.
她写得很漂亮。
She was a poet.
她是一位诗人。
She read back her texts to listen to them.
她读回短信来听。
Even the best writers today, Richard Dawkins, they don’t write as beautifully as did Rachel Carson.
即使是当今最好的作家理查德·道金斯，他们的写作也不如雷切尔·卡森那样优美。
What else?
还有什么？
A woman, not a university professor.
一个女人，不是大学教授。
She was a mild-mannered person, not a vigorous arguer like Carl Sagan.
她是一个举止温和的人，而不是像卡尔·萨根那样激烈的争论者。
But as a mild-mannered person, when she was put on a crucial show where she and the spokesman for a chemical company squared off against each other, the spokesman for the chemical company pounded and screamed and basically looked embarrassing, whereas Rachel Carson responded calmly and convincingly.
但作为一个温文尔雅的人，当她在一场关键节目中与一家化工公司的代言人对峙时，化工公司的代言人又打又叫，基本上看起来很尴尬，而雷切尔·卡森则冷静地回应，令人信服。
I would say, thinking about it now, that it was another 20 or 30 years before the first scientists became famous for writing for the public.
现在想想，我想说，又过了 20 或 30 年，第一批科学家因为公众写作而闻名。
Now, this is the podcast where we talk about the pomegranate juice industry.
现在，这是我们谈论石榴汁行业的播客。
I’m well aware of the proximate influence of the Resnick family, but when I look around the world, I see India, Iran, Turkey, China, Egypt, Spain, South Africa, Azerbaijan, Italy.
我很清楚雷斯尼克家族的直接影响力，但当我环顾世界时，我看到了印度、伊朗、土耳其、中国、埃及、西班牙、南非、阿塞拜疆、意大利。
They all have a pomegranate juice sector.
他们都有石榴汁部门。
It’s hard for me to believe that without the Resnicks, the US would not have gone the same path a little while later, but inevitably so, no?
我很难相信，如果没有雷斯尼克，美国不久后就不会走上同样的道路，但不可避免的是，不是吗？
No, because pomegranates have been domesticated about 5,000 to 6,000 years ago.
不，因为石榴在大约 5,000 至 6,000 年前就已被驯化。
The pomegranate juice market consisted of a salesperson squeezing a single glass of juice at a market.
石榴汁市场由销售人员在市场上榨一杯果汁组成。
It’s difficult to make pomegranate juice.
制作石榴汁很困难。
Orange juice is easy to make.
橙汁很容易制作。
You cut the orange in half, and it’s soft inside.
你把橙子切成两半，里面是软的。
Much of the value of the pomegranate is in its very hard rind, and the contents of pomegranates is not a mush like orange juice, but it’s these tiny seeds.
石榴的大部分价值在于其非常坚硬的果皮，石榴的内容物不是像橙汁那样的糊状物，而是这些微小的种子。
The way that pomegranate juice is now made on a large scale consists of a three-story tower that squeezes the entire pomegranate, including the rind.
现在大规模生产石榴汁的方法是用一个三层塔来挤压整个石榴，包括果皮。
It’s much more difficult than making orange juice.
这比制作橙汁要困难得多。
There was no pomegranate juice industry for 5,000 years around the world.
世界各地已有五千年没有石榴汁工业。
In the United States, there was no industry until 2002.
美国直到2002年才出现工业。
In 2002, there were about 22 pomegranate growers in the United States.
2002年，美国大约有22个石榴种植者。
They were all in California.
他们都在加利福尼亚州。
21 of them were small farmers without much money, without the motivation to invest huge amounts of money.
其中21人是小农户，没有多少钱，没有动力投入巨额资金。
Lynda Resnick got interested in the medical value of pomegranates.
琳达·雷斯尼克 (Lynda Resnick) 对石榴的医疗价值产生了兴趣。
She sank huge amounts of money, a couple of hundred million dollars.
她损失了巨额资金，达数亿美元。
It took her 18 years to start making money on pomegranate juice.
她花了18年时间才开始靠石榴汁赚钱。
None of those 22 other farmers had the $150 million to pour in or would have waited 18 years.
其他 22 名农民中没有一个有 1.5 亿美元的资金投入，也不会等待 18 年。
The big companies like Coca-Cola and Nestlé, they never would have permitted a branch of their industry to sink $150 million and not make a profit for 18 years.
像可口可乐和雀巢这样的大公司，他们绝不会允许其行业的一个分支亏损 1.5 亿美元，而且 18 年没有盈利。
Are you convinced that the relative success of Botswana will endure?
您是否确信博茨瓦纳的相对成功将会持续下去？
Their current politics seems much more personalized, much more corrupt.
他们当前的政治似乎更加个人化，更加腐败。
With artificial diamonds, the value of their most important resource is headed to some very low sum.
对于人造钻石来说，其最重要资源的价值将变得非常低。
Won’t they just revert to mean, and it won’t have been an enduring success?
难道他们不会变得卑鄙，而且不会取得持久的成功吗？
What one can say is that Botswana became independent in 1966.
可以说的是，博茨瓦纳于1966年独立。
It’s now 60 years later.
现在已经是 60 年后的事了。
Botswana, when it became independent, was the poorest country in Africa.
博茨瓦纳独立时是非洲最贫穷的国家。
Now, Botswana, for most of these 60 years, has been either the richest or the second-richest country in Africa.
现在，博茨瓦纳在这 60 年的大部分时间里一直是非洲最富有或第二富有的国家。
For 60 years, they’ve got a great track record.
60 年来，他们拥有出色的业绩记录。
What will happen in the next 60 years, I don’t know.
未来60年会发生什么，我不知道。
It’s only, I think, two million people or so.
我认为大约只有两百万人。
I’m not sure of the number, and one resource.
我不确定数量和一种资源。
You divide up the value of the resource, and they do well.
你瓜分了资源的价值，他们就做得很好。
The value of the resource goes away, and they’re like Namibia, no?
资源的价值消失了，他们就像纳米比亚，不是吗？
Yes, they have three million people.
是的，他们有三百万人。
The value of the diamonds is divided among only three million people instead of divided among the 100 million people, as in the case of Nigeria.
钻石的价值只分配给三百万人，而不是像尼日利亚那样分配给一亿人。
We’ve had artificial diamonds for quite a while now.
我们使用人造钻石已经有一段时间了。
Despite that, natural diamonds are still very popular.
尽管如此，天然钻石仍然很受欢迎。
I know this firsthand because my son, one of our two sons, has just gotten engaged.
我直接知道这一点，因为我的儿子，我们的两个儿子之一，刚刚订婚。
What he bought for his fiancée was a natural diamond, not an artificial diamond.
他给未婚妻买的是天然钻石，不是人造钻石。
You have a section on John Wooden, the former basketball coach at UCLA.
您有一个关于加州大学洛杉矶分校前篮球教练约翰·伍登的部分。
When I think of his success as a coach, I’m most inclined to think his great talent was as a recruiter, not as a coach per se.
当我想到他作为一名教练的成功时，我最倾向于认为他的伟大才能是作为一名招聘人员，而不是作为一名教练本身。
What’s your view on that?
您对此有何看法？
He gets Lew Alcindor, later Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, and Bill Walton, among others, to come to UCLA to play.
他让卢·阿尔辛多、后来的卡里姆·阿卜杜勒·贾巴尔和比尔·沃顿等人来到加州大学洛杉矶分校打球。
Isn’t it all about recruiting?
不都是为了招人吗？
Yes, that’s recruiting, but recruiting was the least of his talents.
是的，这就是招募，但招募是他最不擅长的。
He won national championships with Walton and with Alcindor, but he also won national championships without them.
他与沃尔顿和阿尔辛多一起赢得了全国冠军，但在没有他们的情况下他也赢得了全国冠军。
He was distinctive in many ways.
他在很多方面都很独特。
He spent two and a half, three hours planning his practices.
他花了两个半小时、三个小时来计划他的练习。
When he ran the practices, his players said, “We ran a play,” and then he would say, “Do it faster, and then do it faster,” with the result that his players could do things almost subconsciously.
当他进行训练时，他的球员们会说，“我们进行了一场比赛”，然后他会说，“做得更快，然后做得更快”，结果是他的球员几乎可以下意识地做事。
He also insisted on his players being in top-rank condition.
他还坚持让他的球员保持顶级状态。
There was a year when UCLA played against Duke.
有一年加州大学洛杉矶分校对阵杜克大学。
The Duke players were 6’9”, and the UCLA players were 6’4”, but John Wooden trained his players to jump higher than the players.
杜克大学的球员身高为6英尺9英寸，加州大学洛杉矶分校的球员身高为6英尺4英寸，但约翰·伍登训练他的球员比球员跳得更高。
He was a great psychologist also; he understood his individuals.
他也是一位伟大的心理学家。他了解他的个人。
He understood teamwork.
他懂得团队合作。
One of his decisive moves was that in a year when UCLA didn’t do very well, he wondered why is it.
他的决定性举措之一是，在加州大学洛杉矶分校表现不佳的一年里，他想知道为什么会这样。
He figured out that he was practicing his players just in groups of five, which meant that if one player had to take a rest and another player was brought in, the other player hadn’t worked out with that group.
他发现他的球员只是以五人为一组进行训练，这意味着如果一名球员必须休息而另一名球员被引进，那么另一名球员就没有与该组一起训练。
He trained his players in groups of seven rather than five.
他以七人一组而不是五人一组的方式训练球员。
Then, finally, his players themselves, when they talked about John Wooden, they didn’t talk about him as a basketball coach.
最后，他的球员们自己，当他们谈论约翰·伍登时，他们并没有谈论他作为一名篮球教练。
They talked about him as a person.
他们谈论他这个人。
Bill Walton said this.
比尔·沃尔顿这样说道。
He said, “John Wooden made more difference in my life than anyone other than my mother and father.” Because for him, basketball was not a sport.
他说：“除了我的父母之外，约翰·伍登对我的生活的影响比任何人都大。”因为对于他来说，篮球不是一项运动。
Basketball was a metaphor for life.
篮球是生活的隐喻。
On his own replaceability
论其自身的可替代性
If you think of your own model of the intellectual world, how consequential a figure are you?
如果你想想你自己的知识世界模型，你是一个多么重要的人物？
Would Guns, Germs, and Steel, in some other way, have been written, rewritten 10 years later if you hadn’t done it, or it just would have been a vacuum?
如果你没有这么做的话，《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》是否会在十年后以其他方式被写出来、重写，或者它只是一个真空？
I have some prejudices in that.
我对此有一些偏见。
That’s fine.
没关系。
Let’s hear them.
让我们听听他们的声音。
All right.
好的。
There are other books about the theme of Guns, Germs, and Steel, which is why societies in different parts of the world had different successes.
还有其他一些关于《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》主题的书，这就是为什么世界不同地区的社会取得了不同的成功。
My argument and the argument of others is that it depended upon the distribution of domesticable plants and animals around the world.
我的论点和其他人的论点是，这取决于可驯化植物和动物在世界各地的分布。
It also depended upon the axes of the continents, Eurasia being east-west, the New World being north-south.
它还取决于大陆的轴线，欧亚大陆是东西向，新世界是南北向。
Contributions that I made were the role of domestic plants, domestic animals, in the development of infectious diseases.
我所做的贡献是家养植物、家畜在传染病发展中的作用。
What killed the most Native Americans was not European swords and horses; it was European infectious diseases.
杀死美洲原住民最多的不是欧洲的剑和马，而是欧洲的剑和马。这是欧洲传染病。
Why did Native Americans not have their own infectious diseases to give back to Europeans?
为什么美洲原住民没有把自己的传染病回馈给欧洲人？
The reason is that the epidemic infectious diseases of the modern world come from domestic animals.
原因是现代世界的流行传染病来自家畜。
The Fertile Crescent had the most domestic animals, five big domestic animals.
新月沃土拥有最多的家畜，有五只大型家畜。
The New World had only one big domestic animal, the llama.
新世界只有一种大型家畜，即美洲驼。
The llama is not cuddly because we haven’t gotten any infectious diseases from llamas.
美洲驼并不可爱，因为我们没有从美洲驼身上感染任何传染病。
I was a professor at a medical school.
我是一所医学院的教授。
My brother-in-law was an expert on infectious disease.
我的姐夫是传染病专家。
I did make a contribution in the importance of infectious disease, and the reason why infectious diseases developed especially in the Old World.
我确实对传染病的重要性以及传染病在旧世界尤其发展的原因做出了贡献。
Also, the importance of continental axes, the rapid spread east-west of domestic animals and the people and inventions, which were always at the same latitude and same day length.
此外，大陆轴线的重要性、家畜和人类以及发明的快速东西向传播，它们总是处于同一纬度和同一昼长。
That was something that a botanist told me, but it’s not something that students of history were aware of.
这是一位植物学家告诉我的，但历史系的学生并没有意识到这一点。
I got that message from the botanist, and I put it in Guns, Germs, and Steel.
我从植物学家那里得到了这个信息，并将其放入《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》中。
The fact is Guns, Germs, and Steel has made a difference.
事实上，《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》已经发挥了重要作用。
I’m prejudiced.
我有偏见。
What do you think of the people who say, if you take all the variables, put them in a cross-country regression, that it’s really distance from the equator that dominates and that that’s the one factor?
有人说，如果你把所有的变量都放在跨国回归中，那么距赤道的距离才是起主导作用的，而且这是唯一的因素，你对此有何看法？
That would have been discovered, say, eight years later.
比如说八年后，这一点就会被发现。
The answer to that is it’s not distance from the equator at all of the centers of agriculture around the world.
答案是，世界各地的农业中心距离赤道并不远。
There are people who say Europe and the temperate zones, distance from the equator helped Europe.
有人说欧洲和温带、距赤道的距离对欧洲有帮助。
Well, the domestic plants and animals of Europe and the writing of Europe and the metal tools of Europe and the centralized political governments of Europe were not developed in Europe.
嗯，欧洲的家养植物和动物、欧洲的文字、欧洲的金属工具和欧洲的中央集权政治政府都不是在欧洲发展起来的。
They were developed in the Fertile Crescent in Mediterranean latitudes.
它们是在地中海纬度的新月沃地开发的。
In the New World, the most advanced societies were not at high latitudes.
在新世界，最先进的社会并不位于高纬度地区。
Most advanced societies were the Maya of the Yucatán and the Incas close to the equator.
最先进的社会是尤卡坦半岛的玛雅人和赤道附近的印加人。
Distance from the equator, no; it’s not been a major factor in world history.
距赤道的距离，否；它不是世界历史的一个主要因素。
Except that if you get too far from the equator, the inward and Siberians, you don’t have agriculture there.
但如果距离赤道、内陆地区和西伯利亚太远，那里就没有农业。
On the decline of face-to-face skills
论面对面技巧的衰退
What is it you think that a typical, highly ambitious 25-year-old most misunderstands about becoming consequential?
您认为一个典型的、雄心勃勃的 25 岁年轻人对于成为重要人物最误解的是什么？
What is it that a 25-year-old most misunderstands about being consequential?
25 岁的年轻人对于影响力最常误解的是什么？
They come to you as a consultant, and they say, “Jared, I’m just dying to be consequential in human history.
他们以顾问的身份来找你，然后说：“贾里德，我非常渴望在人类历史上产生重要影响。
What is it that I should know?
我应该知道什么？
What should I do?
我该怎么办？
What should I change?
我应该改变什么？
What can you teach me?
你能教我什么？
What’s the main lesson?”
主要教训是什么？”
What’s the main lesson?
主要教训是什么？
The main lesson is learn to talk to people face-to-face and put away your indirect means of communication.
主要的教训是学会面对面地与人交谈，并放弃间接的沟通方式。
Traditionally, in New Guinea, there were no telephones.
传统上，新几内亚没有电话。
All communication was face-to-face.
所有的交流都是面对面的。
New Guineans are very skilled at communicating face-to-face.
新几内亚人非常擅长面对面交流。
Particularly, in the last 40, 50 years, I’ve seen the deterioration of social skills.
特别是在过去的 40、50 年里，我看到了社交技能的恶化。
It’s very striking in New Guinea.
这在新几内亚非常引人注目。
I was an environmental consultant for the Chevron oil fields in New Guinea.
我是新几内亚雪佛龙油田的环境顾问。
There was an occasion where Chevron wanted to develop a new oil well, so they brought their international lawyers out from Switzerland to New Guinea to negotiate with New Guinea villagers who had never been out of their villages.
有一次，雪佛龙想要开发一口新油井，所以他们把国际律师从瑞士带到新几内亚，与从未出过村子的新几内亚村民进行谈判。
The international lawyers thought, “This is going to be a piece of cake.
国际律师认为：“这将是小菜一碟。
These people don’t have experience at negotiating.”
这些人没有谈判经验。”
In fact, New Guineans had far more experience at negotiating.
事实上，新几内亚人的谈判经验要丰富得多。
They had far more negotiating tricks than did the international lawyers.
他们的谈判技巧比国际律师多得多。
The lawyers expected to be out of there with their agreement in a day.
律师们预计一天之内就能在达成协议后离开那里。
In fact, at the end of the first day, the international lawyers thought they had an agreement with the New Guineans.
事实上，在第一天结束时，国际律师认为他们与新几内亚人达成协议。
The next morning, the New Guineans said, “Oh, no, that agreement, we are forgetting that agreement.
第二天早上，新几内亚人说：“哦，不，那个协议，我们忘记了那个协议。
The people who made that agreement, they don’t count.
达成该协议的人并不重要。
Here are some different negotiators.”
这里有一些不同的谈判代表。”
New Guineans had a wide range of negotiating skills because they spent their lives negotiating face-to-face.
新几内亚人拥有广泛的谈判技巧，因为他们一生都在进行面对面的谈判。
Nowadays, particularly in the last 20 years, I’m shocked at the deterioration of social skills in the generation of my children, who are 39 years old, because most communication nowadays is not face-to-face, and so we don’t understand people.
如今，特别是在过去的20年里，我对我39岁的孩子这一代人的社交技能的恶化感到震惊，因为现在大多数交流都不是面对面的，所以我们不了解人。
Aren’t a lot of current political leaders, especially in America, highly skilled at social media?
很多现任政治领导人，尤其是美国的政治领导人，不是都非常擅长社交媒体吗？
If I look at AOC, as we’re speaking, she’s favored to win the Democratic presidential nomination.
如果我看看 AOC，正如我们所说，她最有可能赢得民主党总统提名。
She may or may not win the election, but she’s basically well known because of social media, or no?
她可能会或可能不会赢得选举，但她基本上是因为社交媒体而出名，或者不是？
Well known, yes.
众所周知，是的。
Politically skilled and socially skilled, no. Why not politically skilled?
政治能力和社交能力，不。为什么政治能力不行？
Because people today have spent so much time dealing indirectly.
因为今天的人们花了很多时间进行间接交易。
You and I are now talking indirectly.
你和我现在正在间接地交谈。
The telephone was the first indirect communication—telephone and radio.
电话是第一种间接通讯——电话和无线电。
Then in came computers.
然后电脑出现了。
Because I teach at UCLA, I’ve seen the shocking deterioration of writing skills and speaking skills in UCLA students in the last several decades.
因为我在加州大学洛杉矶分校任教，所以我看到过去几十年来加州大学洛杉矶分校学生的写作技能和口语能力惊人地恶化。
Why?
为什么？
Because the internet communication is indirect now, and they’re not developing the social skills.
因为现在的互联网交流是间接的，他们没有发展社交技能。
Who are the people that you think are highly effective, whether or not you agree with them, but highly effective as leaders because of their direct face-to-face social skills?
无论您是否同意他们，您认为谁是高效的人，但由于他们直接面对面的社交技能而成为高效的领导者？
Highly effective as leaders.
作为领导者非常高效。
First of all, I won’t pass judgment on leaders who are still active today because premature.
首先，我不会因为不成熟而对今天仍然活跃的领导人做出判断。
We can’t yet judge how Angela Merkel, Donald Trump will look sometime from now.
我们还无法判断安格拉·默克尔(Angela Merkel)和唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)今后某个时候会是什么样子。
Leaders in the business world, Steve Jobs, and Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg, they made a difference.
商界领袖史蒂夫·乔布斯、埃隆·马斯克、杰夫·贝索斯和马克·扎克伯格，他们做出了改变。
Each of them.
他们每个人。
None of them created his sphere without Jeff Bezos.
如果没有杰夫·贝佐斯，他们都无法创造自己的领域。
We would have had an everything store.
我们本来应该有一家应有尽有的商店。
There already was an everything store, namely eBay.
已经有一家一切商品商店，即 eBay。
Jeff Bezos developed a distinctive sort of everything store, an online store that prioritized the customer.
杰夫·贝索斯开发了一种独特的万能商店，这是一家以顾客为优先的在线商店。
Those in the business world are some of the leaders who made a difference.
商界的一些领导者做出了贡献。
On intelligence and genetics
关于智力和遗传
Now, I’ve never been to Papua New Guinea, but should I think that the people there are smarter or possibly even genetically smarter?
现在，我从未去过巴布亚新几内亚，但我是否应该认为那里的人更聪明，甚至可能在基因上更聪明？
I will answer yes, and I will tell you that there have been people who hate me for saying that.
我会回答是的，我会告诉你，有人因为我这么说而讨厌我。
You won’t get canceled here.
您不会在这里被取消。
Don’t worry.
不用担心。
Because I’ve spent 60 years out there, my impression is that New Guineans are more curious.
因为我在那里呆了 60 年，所以我的印象是新几内亚人更好奇。
On the average, they’re more curious.
平均而言，他们更好奇。
They’re smarter than Westerners.
他们比西方人聪明。
Why is that?
这是为什么？
Think of how natural selection operates in New Guinea and how natural selection has operated in Europe in the last 10,000 years.
想想自然选择在新几内亚是如何运作的，以及自然选择在过去一万年里是如何在欧洲运作的。
In Europe, survival depended especially on surviving infectious diseases.
在欧洲，生存尤其取决于能否幸存传染病。
It didn’t depend so much on how smart you were, but it depended on whether you overcame the main causes of death, the infectious diseases like smallpox and tuberculosis and measles.
这不太取决于你有多聪明，而是取决于你是否克服了主要的死亡原因，即天花、肺结核和麻疹等传染病。
In New Guinea, the main causes of death are dealing with this very difficult environment and dealing with other New Guineans because warfare is constant there.
在新几内亚，死亡的主要原因是与这种非常困难的环境以及与其他新几内亚人打交道，因为那里经常发生战争。
I think this explains why my impression that New Guineans are more curious and smarter than Westerners.
我想这解释了为什么我对新几内亚人比西方人更好奇、更聪明的印象。
I think this explains why it happened.
我认为这解释了为什么会发生这种情况。
I must say, when I tell Americans or Europeans that New Guineans are, on the average, I think smarter, they really hate to hear that.
我必须说，当我告诉美国人或欧洲人，平均而言，新几内亚人更聪明，他们真的很讨厌听到这个。
The usual view is that they’re dumber because they had stone tools, and they didn’t have metal tools.
通常的观点是，他们更笨，因为他们有石器，而没有金属工具。
Well, they didn’t have metal tools because their agriculture was much less productive.
嗯，他们没有金属工具，因为他们的农业生产力低得多。
There was a recent piece in Nature, I think, a few months ago that argued there’s genetic evidence that West Eurasians, since the Stone Age, have become somewhat smarter through whatever mechanisms of interbreeding.
我想，几个月前，《自然》杂志上有一篇文章认为，有遗传证据表明，自石器时代以来，西欧亚人通过某种杂交机制变得更加聪明。
Do you think that’s also true?
你认为这也是真的吗？
You could imagine protecting yourself against infectious disease does require a lot of smarts.
您可以想象，保护自己免受传染病的侵害确实需要很多智慧。
You’ve got to provision food.
你必须提供食物。
You’ve got to know what’s coming.
你必须知道接下来会发生什么。
You have to build social alliances, or maybe treat people the right way to whatever extent you can.
你必须建立社会联盟，或者尽你所能以正确的方式对待人们。
Can’t that also have been a positive mechanism for selection?
难道这不也是一种积极的选择机制吗？
The fact is that particularly European scientists went to great efforts for the last century, ever since the IQ test, to demonstrate that Europeans have higher IQs than do other people.
事实是，自从智商测试以来，尤其是欧洲科学家在上个世纪付出了巨大的努力，以证明欧洲人比其他人有更高的智商。
There’s no evidence whatsoever for it.
没有任何证据证明这一点。
There are lots of people who try.
有很多人在尝试。
I’ve not seen this particular Nature paper.
我还没有看过这篇特定的《自然》论文。
For more than a century, eugenicists have been trying to argue that Europeans are smarter.
一个多世纪以来，优生学家一直试图证明欧洲人更聪明。
There’s just no evidence that they’re smarter.
只是没有证据表明他们更聪明。
This paper doesn’t show Europeans are smarter than other people.
这篇论文并没有表明欧洲人比其他人更聪明。
It just shows they’re smarter than they were 25,000 years ago.
这只是表明他们比 25,000 年前更聪明。
Oh, how on earth would we demonstrate that Europeans are smarter now than they were 25,000 years ago?
哦，我们究竟如何证明现在的欧洲人比 25,000 年前更聪明呢？
There’s no way that you could demonstrate that.
你无法证明这一点。
We know that 25,000 years ago, Europeans and Indonesians were making great art, the great art of Lascaux.
我们知道，25,000 年前，欧洲人和印度尼西亚人正在创造伟大的艺术，即拉斯科的伟大艺术。
We know that about 80,000 years ago, there was a takeoff in human societies with much more rapid inventions, inventions gradually of finer stone tools and inventions of clothing and sewn clothing.
我们知道，大约八万年前，人类社会出现了一次腾飞，发明速度更快，逐渐发明了更精细的石器，发明了衣服和缝制衣服。
What happened 80,000 years ago?
八万年前发生了什么？
This is something that I argued in my book, The Third Chimpanzee.
这是我在《第三只黑猩猩》一书中争论过的事情。
My guess is that the great leap forward of 80,000 years ago might have been associated with the development of complex human language.
我的猜测是，八万年前的大跃进可能与复杂的人类语言的发展有关。
Human language requires a complex voice box.
人类语言需要复杂的语音箱。
Chimpanzees can produce about four vowels and consonants, but the voice box of chimpanzees cannot produce complex spoken language.
黑猩猩可以发出大约四个元音和辅音，但黑猩猩的声箱不能发出复杂的口语。
My guess is that it might have been changes in the voice box 80,000 years ago that resulted in the great leap forward that then resulted in art and much finer stone tools.
我的猜测是，八万年前语音箱的变化可能导致了巨大的飞跃，进而产生了艺术和更精美的石器。
On why the Industrial Revolution began in England
论工业革命为何在英国爆发
Are you familiar with Greg Clark’s hypotheses and economic history that the English in particular, possibly also the Dutch, that they interbred themselves into lower rates of time preference, more savings, more investment, more patience, and that that’s why the Industrial Revolution came to England?
你是否熟悉格雷格·克拉克的假设和经济史，特别是英国人，可能还有荷兰人，他们通过杂交获得了较低的时间偏好率、更多的储蓄、更多的投资、更多的耐心，这就是工业革命来到英国的原因？
Do you have a view on that?
您对此有何看法？
Why did the Industrial Revolution come to England?
工业革命为何来到英国？
England is an island.
英格兰是一个岛屿。
England did not need standing armies, England did not constantly get invaded.
英格兰不需要常备军，英格兰也不会经常遭到入侵。
In fact, the last successful invasion of England was 1066.
事实上，上一次成功入侵英格兰是在 1066 年。
England being an island allowed England not to need an army, gradually to develop democracy.
英国作为一个岛屿，使得英国不需要军队，逐渐发展民主。
Democracy is a productive form of government.
民主是一种富有成效的政府形式。
Also, England is on the Atlantic coast.
此外，英格兰位于大西洋沿岸。
England and the Netherlands, and for Spain and Portugal, they were the countries that spread around the world because they were on the Atlantic coast.
英国和荷兰，还有西班牙和葡萄牙，它们是分布在世界各地的国家，因为它们位于大西洋沿岸。
Also, Spain was on the Mediterranean, but the Mediterranean was the testing ground for developing ships and navigation that were then used across the Atlantic.
此外，西班牙位于地中海，但地中海是开发船舶和导航的试验场，然后用于跨大西洋。
I’d say that it was geography that accounts for England’s predominance.
我想说，英格兰的优势是地理因素造成的。
Deirdre McCloskey attributes the differences to ideology, individualism, ideas of liberty, enlightenment, and maybe to some extent, Christianity.
迪尔德丽·麦克洛斯基将这种差异归因于意识形态、个人主义、自由观念、启蒙运动，或许在某种程度上还归因于基督教。
What do you think of her work?
你觉得她的工作怎么样？
I don’t know her work, but the idea that it has to do with the Enlightenment, that’s related to what I was just telling you, that in the case of England, not having an army meant that England could develop a democracy.
我不知道她的工作，但它与启蒙运动有关的想法与我刚才告诉你的内容有关，就英国而言，没有军队意味着英国可以发展民主。
It was in the 1600s that England chopped off the head of its king, and then parliament became powerful in England.
1600年代，英国砍掉了国王的头，议会在英国开始掌权。
Democracy, as Winston Churchill said, is the worst form of government except for all other forms of government that have been tried.
正如温斯顿·丘吉尔所说，民主是除了已经尝试过的所有其他形式的政府之外最糟糕的政府形式。
With democracy, you can suggest an idea, and there’s not a dictator who will tell you to shut up.
在民主制度下，你可以提出一个想法，而且不会有独裁者让你闭嘴。
Also, in the case of Netherlands, why did the Industrial Revolution begin first in England?
另外，就荷兰而言，为什么工业革命首先在英国开始？
Democracy didn’t have a standing army, and why did it next spread to the Netherlands?
民主没有常备军，为何后来又传到了荷兰？
Probably because the Netherlands faces England, but also the Netherlands was a democracy early.
可能是因为荷兰面对英国，而且荷兰很早就是民主国家。
Do you have a view on the historical theories of Daron Acemoglu that it’s fundamentally about whether or not you have extractive institutions versus inclusive institutions?
您对达龙·阿西莫格鲁（Daron Acemoglu）的历史理论有什么看法，即从根本上讲，问题在于是否有提取性制度与包容性制度？
Yes, I do know Daron and Jim Robinson, who shared the Nobel Prize together, particularly Jim Robinson.
是的，我确实认识达伦和吉姆·罗宾逊，他们共同获得了诺贝尔奖，特别是吉姆·罗宾逊。
I’ve had more to do with Jim Robinson.
我和吉姆·罗宾逊有更多的接触。
I’ve learned more from Jim Robinson in the last 20 years than from any other individual.
过去 20 年里，我从吉姆·罗宾逊身上学到的东西比从任何其他人身上学到的都多。
It was Jim who taught me the power of natural experiments.
是吉姆教会了我自然实验的力量。
My career was as a laboratory scientist, as a gallbladder scientist, who did manipulative experiments in the laboratory.
我的职业生涯是作为一名实验室科学家，作为一名胆囊科学家，在实验室里进行操作实验。
On people, we can’t do manipulative experiments.
对于人，我们不能做操纵性的实验。
We can’t go around experimentally killing people and seeing what happens.
我们不能到处实验性地杀人然后看看会发生什么。
In my work in New Guinea studying New Guinea birds, I can’t go around exterminating New Guinea birds.
在我在新几内亚研究新几内亚鸟类的工作中，我不能不去消灭新几内亚鸟类。
I had to develop techniques of natural experiments, comparing mountains that did or did not have a leading bird species.
我必须开发自然实验技术，比较有或没有主要鸟类的山脉。
My natural experiments were relatively crude.
我的自然实验相对粗糙。
Jim Robinson and Daron are masters of natural experiments.
吉姆·罗宾逊和达伦是自然实验的大师。
My current book on leaders uses natural experiments to ask questions about political leaders, then business leaders, and sports coaches.
我目前关于领导者的书使用自然实验来询问有关政治领导人、商业领袖和体育教练的问题。
I admire Daron and Jim a lot.
我非常钦佩达伦和吉姆。
I think that they give less credit to geography and more credit to institutions than I do, but they are great scientists and great writers.
我认为他们对地理的信任比我少，对机构的信任比我多，但他们是伟大的科学家和伟大的作家。
On environmental optimism
论环境乐观主义
Now your book on environmental Collapse, that one seemed too pessimistic to me.
你关于环境崩溃的书对我来说似乎太悲观了。
Have you become more optimistic since then?
从那以后你变得更加乐观了吗？
In some ways, yes.
在某些方面，是的。
I’m more optimistic now than I was 20 years ago.
我现在比20年前更加乐观。
One might say, for heaven’s sake, why?
有人可能会说，天啊，为什么呢？
Because now there are more people, we have more destructive power, and there’s less time left before we risk going over the cliff.
因为现在人多了，我们的破坏力就更大了，我们面临悬崖危险的时间也越来越少了。
In the last 20 years, there have been two developments that make me cautiously optimistic.
过去20年里，有两件事让我持谨慎乐观的态度。
One is what has happened in the world of big businesses.
一是大企业界发生的事情。
Twenty years ago, I would have said that the most evil, destructive forces in the world are big businesses.
二十年前，我会说世界上最邪恶、最具破坏性的力量是大企业。
It was true that 20 years ago, big businesses, for the most part, were not much interested in the environment.
确实，20 年前，大多数大企业对环境并没有多大兴趣。
Within the last 20 years, big businesses have been increasingly interested in the environment; Walmart, for example.
过去 20 年来，大企业对环境越来越感兴趣。以沃尔玛为例。
Walmart has taken a lead in sustainable products.
沃尔玛在可持续产品方面处于领先地位。
Unilever has taken a lead in sustainable fishery.
联合利华在可持续渔业方面处于领先地位。
Even oil companies.
甚至石油公司。
I was sent out by World Wildlife Fund in 1999 to do environmental studies in the oil fields that Chevron managed in Papua New Guinea.
1999年，世界自然基金会派我去雪佛龙在巴布亚新几内亚管理的油田进行环境研究。
I went out expecting that they would be awful.
我出去时以为他们会很糟糕。
I learned, in fact, that Chevron is and was ultra-cautious in the oil fields because they knew that if they made a mess, New Guineans would sue them.
事实上，我了解到雪佛龙在油田方面无论过去还是现在都非常谨慎，因为他们知道，如果他们搞砸了，新几内亚人就会起诉他们。
If they made a mess, they would not get contracts for developing the Norwegian oil fields.
如果他们搞砸了，他们就拿不到开发挪威油田的合同。
One thing that makes me optimistic is that I’ve learned that at least some big companies care a lot about the environment.
让我乐观的一件事是，我了解到至少有一些大公司非常关心环境。
The other thing that makes me optimistic is the increased role of young people.
另一件让我乐观的事情是年轻人的作用不断增强。
Twenty-five years ago, young people were not much interested in the environment.
二十五年前，年轻人对环境不太感兴趣。
Now they’ve got a lot interested in the environment.
现在他们对环境非常感兴趣。
My own son, at age five and six, I remember them and their class at age six, marching to make a plea for protecting the rainforest.
我自己的儿子，五岁和六岁，我记得他们和他们的班级六岁时，游行呼吁保护雨林。
I’m cautiously optimistic.
我持谨慎乐观态度。
I would say the chances are 51 percent that we will have a good outcome and only 49 percent that we will have a bad outcome.
我想说，我们有 51% 的机会得到好的结果，只有 49% 的机会我们得到坏的结果。
I’m more optimistic now than I was 20 years ago, particularly for those two reasons: the development of environmental concerns among some big businesses and the much more increased interest of young people in the environment and in our future.
我现在比 20 年前更加乐观，特别是出于以下两个原因：一些大企业对环境问题的关注以及年轻人对环境和我们的未来的兴趣大大增加。
Are you more optimistic about Australia?
您对澳大利亚更加乐观吗？
Won’t water desalination just solve their major problems?
海水淡化不就能解决他们的主要问题吗？
Water desalination requires energy.
海水淡化需要能源。
They have solar energy, right?
他们有太阳能，对吗？
Batteries will get better.
电池会变得更好。
Maybe it costs them 2 percent of GDP.
也许这会花费他们 GDP 的 2%。
That’s one year’s growth.
这是一年的增长。
They give up a year’s growth, and they have all the water they need.
他们放弃了一年的生长，却拥有了所需的全部水。
We shall see.
我们将会看到。
It has not happened yet.
这还没有发生。
Fortunately, there is development of sustainable forms of energy, particularly wind energy and solar energy, which now account for, what, 10 percent or 15 percent of energy production in the United States.
幸运的是，可持续能源的发展，特别是风能和太阳能，目前占美国能源生产的 10% 或 15%。
Nuclear energy: About 85 percent or 90 percent of the energy in France comes from nuclear energy.
核能：法国约85%或90%的能源来自核能。
There’s work on getting energy from tides.
人们正在研究从潮汐中获取能量。
There’s work on getting energy geothermally from heat in the ground.
人们正在努力从地下的热量中获取地热能。
We shall see.
我们将会看到。
What do you think is the single biggest environmental problem at the macro level for the world?
您认为宏观层面上世界最大的环境问题是什么？
Is it climate change?
是气候变化吗？
Is it biodiversity?
是生物多样性吗？
Is it water?
是水吗？
Is it something else?
难道是别的什么？
I’m laughing because welcome to why interviewers find interviewing Jared Diamond so frustrating.
我笑是因为欢迎了解为什么面试官觉得采访贾里德戴蒙德如此令人沮丧。
When they ask me a question, “What is the single most important thing?” My answer is always the single most important thing is not to look for the single most important thing, because the world is complicated.
当他们问我一个问题时：“最重要的事情是什么？”我的答案始终是，最重要的事情不是去寻找最重要的事情，因为世界是复杂的。
When a couple who are about to get married asks me, “What is the single most important thing for happy marriage?” My answer is the single most important thing is not to look for the single most important thing.
当一对即将结婚的夫妇问我：“幸福婚姻最重要的是什么？”我的答案是，最重要的事情不是去寻找最重要的事情。
Because for a happy marriage, you need to get 37 things right.
因为为了幸福的婚姻，你需要做好37件事。
If you get 36 things right, and you disagree about sex or you disagree about religion, the marriage will fall apart.
如果你做对了 36 件事，而你对性或宗教有不同意见，婚姻就会破裂。
To go to your question, what is the most important thing in the world today?
回答你的问题，当今世界上最重要的事情是什么？
There are many things that we have to get right.
有很多事情我们必须做对。
The most important things that we have to get right are climate change, inequality, and the nuclear risk, the risk that we will have nuclear war and that we will have nuclear winter.
我们必须解决的最重要的事情是气候变化、不平等和核风险，我们将面临核战争和核冬天的风险。
I didn’t give you one answer, but I gave you three answers.
我没有给你一个答案，但我给了你三个答案。
On nuclear risk and the Dvorak keyboard
关于核风险和德沃夏克键盘
Do you have ideas on what we should do to limit nuclear war risk?
您对我们应该采取哪些措施来限制核战争风险有什么想法吗？
What should we do to limit nuclear war risk?
我们应该做什么来限制核战争风险？
Yes, conversations.
是的，对话。
Sure, it’s obvious.
当然，这是显而易见的。
Conversations between the countries that have nuclear weapons.
拥有核武器国家之间的对话。
There have been such conversations.
曾经有过这样的谈话。
After the Cuban Missile Crisis, Russia and the United States had uninterrupted conversations because Russia and the United States saw how close we had come to blowing up the world.
古巴导弹危机后，俄罗斯和美国进行了不间断的对话，因为俄罗斯和美国看到我们距离炸毁世界有多近。
China and the United States have not come that far, but we’re at least having conversations.
中国和美国还没有走到这一步，但我们至少正在进行对话。
The big danger player today is, of course, North Korea.
当然，今天最大的危险人物是朝鲜。
Our current president has made an effort and now says that he’s going to make another effort to get conversations going with North Korea.
我们现任总统已经做出了努力，现在他表示他将做出另一项努力来与朝鲜进行对话。
In short, my answer to your question, what do we need to avoid a nuclear war?
简而言之，我对你的问题的回答是：我们需要做什么才能避免核战争？
Conversations among the nine countries that have nuclear weapons.
九个拥有核武器国家之间的对话。
Do you still type using the Dvorak keyboard layout?
您还在使用德沃夏克键盘布局打字吗？
I’m pausing here.
我在这里暂停一下。
I’m looking at my wife’s computer here, which is the Dvorak keyboard.
我正在看我妻子的电脑，它是德沃夏克键盘。
I would say that we’re invested in the Dvorak keyboard.
我想说的是，我们投资了德沃夏克键盘。
Yes, another keyboard would be much more efficient, but we’ve got the Dvorak keyboard, so I don’t see any movement toward replacing the Dvorak keyboard.
是的，另一个键盘会更有效，但我们有德沃夏克键盘，所以我没有看到任何更换德沃夏克键盘的动向。
Do you think there’s too much inertia in the world of standards then?
您是否认为标准领域存在太多惯性？
I wouldn’t say it’s inertia.
我不会说这是惯性。
I would say we just got too much investment in the Dvorak keyboard.
我想说的是我们在德沃夏克键盘上投入了太多。
Young people learn how to use the Dvorak keyboard.
年轻人学习如何使用德沃夏克键盘。
Yes, another keyboard would be more efficient, but they learn the Dvorak keyboard, and it works.
是的，另一个键盘会更有效，但他们学习了德沃夏克键盘，而且它很有效。
There are other things that they care about rather than getting a different keyboard.
除了购买不同的键盘之外，他们还关心其他事情。
On birdwatching
关于观鸟
Where’s your favorite place to go birdwatching?
您最喜欢去哪里观鸟？
My favorite place to go birdwatching is the street where I live in Los Angeles, Stone Canyon Road.
我最喜欢去观鸟的地方是我住在洛杉矶的那条街，Stone Canyon Road。
My list of species for my street is 189 species.
我所在街道的物种清单是 189 个物种。
I go birdwatching on my street every Saturday and every Sunday.
我每周六和周日都去街上观鸟。
That’s my favorite place to go birdwatching in the United States.
那是我在美国最喜欢观鸟的地方。
Of course, my favorite place to go birdwatching in the world is New Guinea, no close second.
当然，世界上我最喜欢的观鸟地点是新几内亚，紧随其后。
New Guinea has the birds of paradise, the world’s most beautiful birds.
新几内亚拥有天堂鸟，世界上最美丽的鸟类。
New Guinea has bowerbirds, the animals that build the most complex structures other than us humans.
新几内亚有园丁鸟，这种动物能够建造除人类之外最复杂的结构。
The bower of a bowerbird—a bird this size, about the size of a jay—a male builds a bower that may be nine feet tall and is decorated with hundreds of blue fruits and red flowers and orange mushrooms.
园丁鸟的凉亭——这种大小的鸟，大约有松鸦那么大——雄性会建造一个高九英尺的凉亭，上面装饰着数百个蓝色水果、红色花朵和橙色蘑菇。
It has dozens and dozens of pans of stuff, of shells, of pandanus leaves.
它有几十个盘子，里面装满了贝壳、露兜叶等东西。
Once you’ve been to New Guinea, the rest of the world is boring.
一旦你去过新几内亚，世界其他地方就会变得无聊。
That’s the only disadvantage of being in New Guinea.
这是在新几内亚的唯一缺点。
Panama, Costa Rica, Santa Marta, Colombia, are they worth going to for birds?
巴拿马、哥斯达黎加、圣玛尔塔、哥伦比亚，这些地方值得去赏鸟吗？
They’re worth going to, but they’re second to New Guinea.
他们值得一去，但仅次于新几内亚。
On writing and productivity
关于写作和生产力
Now, you’ve written quite a fair number of books that one could call big picture or big idea books.
现在，你已经写了相当多的书，人们可以称之为大图景书或大创意书。
In terms of your method, how does each one come about?
就你的方法而言，每一种方法是如何产生的？
An idea comes to you in the shower, or you start writing out many ideas, and you abandon most of them?
你在洗澡时突然想到一个想法，或者你开始写下很多想法，但你放弃了其中的大部分？
What would you say is your method for a thing that you do and very few people have done in the quantity that you’ve done it?
对于你所做的事情，你会说你的方法是什么，而很少有人能达到你所做的数量？
Well, I’m interested in lots of things.
嗯，我对很多事情都感兴趣。
I’m interested in languages, genetics, human evolution.
我对语言、遗传学、人类进化感兴趣。
It means that until the 1980s, I was the world’s expert on the gallbladder.
这意味着直到20世纪80年代，我都是世界胆囊专家。
Then my twin sons were born.
然后我的双胞胎儿子出生了。
Our twin sons were born in the year 1987.
我们的双胞胎儿子出生于1987年。
I realized that the future of my twin sons was not going to depend upon gallbladders.
我意识到我双胞胎儿子的未来不会依赖于胆囊。
It was going to depend upon history and geography.
这将取决于历史和地理。
There were many major questions in history and geography.
历史和地理方面存在许多重大问题。
My first book, The Third Chimpanzee, had chapters on things that then ended up in other books.
我的第一本书《第三只黑猩猩》中的一些章节后来出现在其他书中。
One chapter of my book, The Third Chimpanzee, my book from 1991, got expanded into Guns, Germs, and Steel.
我 1991 年出版的书《第三只黑猩猩》中的一章被扩展为《枪炮、病菌与钢铁》。
Another chapter of my book, The Third Chimpanzee, got expanded into Collapse.
我的书《第三只黑猩猩》的另一章被扩展为《崩溃》。
Still another chapter got expanded into Why Is Sex Fun?
还有一章扩展为“为什么性很有趣？”
My current book about leaders is a subject that has interested me for a long time as a result of being born in 1937 and growing up in the shadow of Hitler and wondering whether World War II and the Holocaust would have achieved the form they did if it hadn’t been for Hitler.
我目前关于领导人的书是一个长期以来一直让我感兴趣的主题，因为我出生于 1937 年，在希特勒的阴影下长大，我想知道如果没有希特勒，第二次世界大战和大屠杀是否会取得现在的成就。
What’s your most unusual successful work habit?
你最不寻常的成功工作习惯是什么？
You get a lot done, right?
你完成了很多工作，对吗？
You’re extremely productive in multiple areas.
您在多个领域都非常高效。
Do I have a single unusual work habit?
我有什么不寻常的工作习惯吗？
Once again, welcome to Jared.
再次欢迎贾里德。
No, I don’t have one work habit.
不，我没有一种工作习惯。
My work habits are that I’m comfortable sitting down at a desk and working at the desk.
我的工作习惯是我很舒服地坐在办公桌前并在办公桌前工作。
I’ve learned to take off time in the evening instead of working on my book in the evening.
我学会了在晚上休息，而不是在晚上写书。
In the evening now, I listen to music, the composer, Johann Sebastian Bach.
现在晚上，我听作曲家约翰·塞巴斯蒂安·巴赫的音乐。
I’ve sung.
我唱过。
I play the piano.
我弹钢琴。
I play the organ.
我演奏风琴。
I play the viola.
我拉中提琴。
Bach wrote 200 cantatas.
巴赫创作了200首康塔塔。
I’ve been telling myself—I sang in 20 of them—I would like to get to know all Bach cantatas.
我一直告诉自己——我唱了其中的 20 首——我想了解所有巴赫康塔塔。
A year and a half ago, the time arrived.
一年半前，时机到了。
I’m now going to listen to Bach cantatas at the rate of one per week.
我现在将以每周一首的速度听巴赫康塔塔。
I’m now up to cantata number 57.
我现在已经完成第 57 首清唱剧了。
It means that in the evening, I’m relaxed and I’m not fretting.
这意味着到了晚上，我很放松，不会烦恼。
I’m not wasting my time getting anxious.
我不会浪费时间去焦虑。
I’m instead listening to Bach cantatas.
相反，我正在听巴赫康塔塔。
I get good sleep.
我睡得很好。
Are you listening to the Suzuki recordings or the Harnoncourt, or which ones?
您在听 Suzuki 的录音还是 Harnoncourt 的录音，还是哪一个？
Gardiner?
加德纳？
I have three recordings.
我有三段录音。
Gardiner is one.
加德纳就是其中之一。
Although I listen to them every night, I can tell you Gardiner, but I can’t tell you the names of the other Bach cantata recordings that I listen to every night.
虽然我每晚都听它们，我可以告诉你加德纳，但我不能告诉你我每晚听的其他巴赫康塔塔录音的名字。
I just listen to them.
我只是听他们的。
We once had Suzuki on as a guest.
我们曾经邀请铃木作为嘉宾。
He was great.
他很棒。
On what his parents gave him
论父母给予他的东西
Your father, Louis Diamond, he was a great benefactor in hematology.
你的父亲路易斯·戴蒙德（Louis Diamond）是血液学领域的伟大捐助者。
How did that shape your life?
这如何塑造了你的生活？
My father and my mother shaped my life.
我的父亲和母亲塑造了我的生活。
They were different people.
他们是不同的人。
Dad was a hematologist and a pediatrician, a children’s doctor.
爸爸是一名血液学家和儿科医生，一名儿童医生。
The result was that growing up, whenever people asked me, “What do you want to do when you grow up?” My answer was, “I want to be a doctor like my father.” Dad also did scientific research.
结果就是，在成长过程中，每当人们问我：“你长大后想做什么？”我的回答是：“我想像我父亲一样成为一名医生。”爸爸也搞科研。
When I went to college, initially, I was pre-med.
当我上大学时，最初我是医学预科生。
I thought I would be a doctor like my father.
我以为我会像我父亲一样成为一名医生。
Then I realized that what really interests me is science, including medical science.
后来我意识到我真正感兴趣的是科学，包括医学。
I went into physiology, which is a medical science.
我学习了生理学，这是一门医学。
Dad shaped my career in that direction.
爸爸朝这个方向塑造了我的职业生涯。
My mother was a linguist and a teacher.
我的母亲是一位语言学家和教师。
Mom taught me to read when I was three years old.
我三岁时妈妈就教我读书。
When I started learning languages in school, my first language was Latin.
当我开始在学校学习语言时，我的第一语言是拉丁语。
I didn’t realize that it was my first foreign language.
我没有意识到这是我的第一门外语。
I didn’t realize that you had to learn grammar.
我没有意识到你必须学习语法。
I just memorized vocabulary.
我只是记住了词汇。
After a month, I was way out of shape with Latin because I hadn’t learned the grammar.
一个月后，我的拉丁语成绩已经很差劲了，因为我还没有学过语法。
My mother then sat down with me every night for a year, and we went through my Latin lessons.
之后一年里，我母亲每晚都会和我坐在一起，我们一起学习拉丁语课程。
From Mom, I developed my love of languages.
从妈妈那里，我培养了对语言的热爱。
Mom was a concert pianist, so I developed my love of music.
妈妈是一位音乐会钢琴家，所以我培养了对音乐的热爱。
I gained different things from Mom—languages and music particularly—and from my father, science.
我从妈妈那里学到了不同的东西——尤其是语言和音乐——也从父亲那里学到了科学。
Do you think your own shift away from studying the gallbladder shaped the lives of your children?
您认为您放弃研究胆囊的转变是否影响了您孩子的生活？
Yes, not because I taught them not to study gallbladders, but because the birth of my children made me realize that I better do something more important for the world than studying gallbladder.
是的，不是因为我教他们不要研究胆囊，而是因为我的孩子的出生让我意识到我最好做一些比研究胆囊对世界更重要的事情。
In fact, I’m an optimistic person.
其实我是一个乐观的人。
I don’t get depressed, usually.
我通常不会感到沮丧。
The one time in my life that I was depressed for a week was when I learned that I was awarded one of these MacArthur Fellowships, the so-called genius awards.
我一生中有一次郁闷了一个星期，是当我得知自己获得了麦克阿瑟奖学金之一，即所谓的天才奖时。
When I got the MacArthur Fellowship, I thought I would have been excited.
当我获得麦克阿瑟奖学金时，我想我会很兴奋。
Instead, I was depressed for a week.
相反，我郁闷了一个星期。
Why?
为什么？
Because the news of the MacArthur Fellowship told me, “Jared, people expect big things of you, and you haven’t delivered.
因为麦克阿瑟奖学金的消息告诉我：“贾里德，人们对你寄予厚望，但你却没有兑现。
You’ve been working on the gallbladder.
您一直在研究胆囊。
You can do better things than that.”
你可以做比这更好的事情。”
On top of that, my sons, their future is not going to depend upon gallbladders.
最重要的是，我的儿子们，他们的未来不会依赖于胆囊。
It’s going to depend upon history and geography.
这将取决于历史和地理。
The combination of the birth of my sons, and the MacArthur Fellowship caused me to switch from medical physiology into writing books on big subjects, such as why you and I are now speaking English rather than speaking bilingual.
我儿子的出生和麦克阿瑟奖学金使我从医学生理学转向撰写大型主题的书籍，例如为什么你和我现在说英语而不是双语。
On what comes next
关于接下来会发生什么
Before my last question, let me just plug your book again.
在我提出最后一个问题之前，让我再次插入你的书。
It is called Profits, P-R-O-F-I-T-S, Prophets, P-R-O-P-H-E-T-S, Coaches, and Kings: (When) Do Leaders Matter?
它被称为利润、P-R-O-F-I-T-S、先知、P-R-O-P-H-E-T-S、教练和国王：（何时）领导者重要吗？
That’s Profits, Prophets, Coaches, and Kings: (When) Do Leaders Matter?
这就是利润、先知、教练和国王：（何时）领导者重要？
Final question.
最后一个问题。
Other than Bach cantatas, what is it you hope to learn about next?
除了巴赫康塔塔之外，您接下来还希望学习什么？
I’ll be 89 years old next month, so maybe a decade ahead of me.
下个月我就 89 岁了，所以也许比我早了十年。
What I want to do in the next decade, I have two goals on the next decade.
下一个十年我想做的事情，下一个十年我有两个目标。
One is to get to know all those 200 Bach cantatas.
一是了解所有 200 首巴赫康塔塔。
I’m only up to number 57 last night.
我昨晚只到了57号。
The other thing is that I’ve been working in New Guinea for 60 years.
另一件事是我在新几内亚工作了 60 年。
I personally explored all of the 10 outlying mountain ranges of New Guinea.
我亲自探索了新几内亚所有 10 座外围山脉。
For some of them, I’m the only person who explored them, but I haven’t synthesized what I’ve learned.
对于其中一些，我是唯一探索过它们的人，但我还没有综合我所学到的东西。
I want to compare the bird foreigners of those 10 mountains of New Guinea to understand why some birds are better colonists than other birds.
我想比较新几内亚那10座山上的鸟类外来者，以了解为什么有些鸟类比其他鸟类更适合殖民。
The questions that one can ask about New Guinea birds are broad questions one can ask about other animals, but birds are the easiest of all animals to observe.
人们可以问有关新几内亚鸟类的问题，也可以问有关其他动物的广泛问题，但鸟类是所有动物中最容易观察的。
The other thing that I want to do with my remaining decade, besides listening to Bach cantatas, is to synthesize my work on New Guinea birds and to publish an account of why some New Guinea birds have colonized every one of those outlying New Guinea mountains while other New Guinea birds have colonized none of them.
除了听巴赫康塔塔之外，我在剩下的十年里想做的另一件事是综合我对新几内亚鸟类的研究，并发表一篇文章，解释为什么一些新几内亚鸟类已经在新几内亚的每一座边远山脉上定居，而其他新几内亚鸟类却没有在这些山脉上定居。
Those are my two main intellectual goals.
这是我的两个主要智力目标。
Then my biggest goal, of course, is to continue to contribute to the happiness of my wife and children.
那么我最大的目标当然就是继续为我的妻子和孩子的幸福做出贡献。
Jared Diamond, thank you very much.
贾里德·戴蒙德，非常感谢你。
Thank you very much.
非常感谢。
You are really interesting to do an interview with.
接受采访你真的很有趣。
Thanks.
谢谢。