Jacob Mikanowski on Eastern Europe (Ep. 192)
Hello everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到与泰勒对话。
I’m talking today with Jacob Mikanowski.
我今天正在与雅各布·米卡诺夫斯基交谈。
He is the author of one of my favorite books this year: it is called Goodbye, Eastern Europe: An Intimate History of a Divided Land.
他是我今年最喜欢的书之一的作者：这本书叫《再见，东欧：分裂土地的亲密历史》。
He is also a well-known journalist (he’s published in the New York Times, Atlantic, Harper’s, and many other places), a historian who studied at UC Berkeley, and in general an all-around smart, curious person.
他也是一位著名的记者（他在《纽约时报》、《大西洋月刊》、《哈泼斯杂志》和许多其他地方发表过文章）、一位在加州大学伯克利分校学习的历史学家，总的来说是一个聪明、好奇的人。
Jacob, welcome.
雅各布，欢迎。
Thanks so much for having me on.
非常感谢您邀请我参加。
It’s a real pleasure.
这真是一种乐趣。
If you had to generalize about the difference in senses of humor between Eastern Europe and Western Europe, how would you put it?
如果你必须概括一下东欧和西欧之间幽默感的差异，你会怎么说？
The Eastern Europeans have a real sense of humor; I don’t know what Western European humor is.
东欧人很有幽默感。我不知道什么是西欧幽默。
But a sense of the tragic, a sense of the absurd, a sense of how those two go together.
但一种悲惨的感觉，一种荒谬的感觉，一种这两者如何结合在一起的感觉。
That’s a great question.
这是一个很好的问题。
Finding laughter in the worst situations; finding a way to laugh at really dark things.
在最糟糕的情况下寻找笑声；找到一种方法来嘲笑真正黑暗的事情。
I think that’s a feature of German Jewish — who are Ashkenazi — humor, and I think it’s found everywhere across the region.
我认为这是德国犹太人的一个特点——德系犹太人——幽默，而且我认为这种特征在整个地区随处可见。
I know there’s a Romanian saying: “to laugh at your tears.” I think that sums it up.
我知道罗马尼亚有句谚语：“笑你的眼泪。”我想这就是总结。
“Laugh at your sorrows.”
“笑笑你的悲伤。”
What do you think of the stereotype that (a) Eastern Europeans don’t smile very much and (b) they sometimes think Americans are stupid for smiling so much?
您如何看待这样的刻板印象：(a) 东欧人不爱笑，(b) 他们有时认为美国人笑得如此之多是愚蠢的？
True?
真的？
Untrue?
不真实吗？
I grew up believing it completely.
我从小就完全相信这一点。
You grew up in Poland, right?
你在波兰长大，对吧？
Well, no: I grew up in America in a Polish family, and then I’d go back and forth a few times.
嗯，不：我在美国的一个波兰家庭长大，然后我会来回几次。
I grew up in a family that got — the parents had got stuck here inadvertently in 1981, when martial law was declared.
我生长在一个这样的家庭：1981 年，当戒严令宣布时，我的父母无意中被困在这里。
They were in America for either six weeks or six months.
他们在美国呆了六周或六个月。
They had different visas, and then they got trapped.
他们持有不同的签证，然后他们就陷入了困境。
They lived in a Polish cultural bubble.
他们生活在波兰的文化泡沫中。
They didn’t know English when they came here, or very little.
他们刚来这里时不懂英语，或者说很少。
I grew up in that culture, and yes, that’s absolutely — I don’t smile that much.
我是在那种文化中长大的，是的，这绝对是 —— 我笑得不多。
My mom doesn’t.
我妈妈没有。
We often get asked if we’re very serious.
我们经常被问到我们是否很认真。
Are we sad?
我们悲伤吗？
Are we depressed?
我们沮丧吗？
And I do find — or I did find — there are American habits that are a little odd.
我确实发现——或者说我确实发现了——美国人的习惯有点奇怪。
Like nervous laughter: that’s not really an Eastern European thing.
就像紧张的笑声：这并不是真正的东欧风格。
To punctuate sentences with a laugh; to just introduce yourself, “I’m Bob from Ohio, hahaha.” Very strange.
用笑声来给句子加标点符号；自我介绍一下，“我是来自俄亥俄州的鲍勃，哈哈哈。”很奇怪。
So there is a little bit of a microcultural disconnect.
所以存在一点微观文化脱节。
I grew up believing that completely — and being told that by my parents, too.
我从小就完全相信这一点——而且我的父母也这么告诉我。
I was in Poland last year, and I had the sense — this surprised me — that Poles right now are smiling a fair amount: maybe more, say, than Germans would be doing.
去年我在波兰，我有一种感觉——“这让我感到惊讶”——“波兰人现在的微笑程度相当高：也许比德国人微笑的还要多。
Now, is that just 4 percent rate of growth for several decades?
那么，这是否只是几十年来 4% 的增长率？
Or do you think my impression is incorrect, and people still are going around looking somewhat grumpy?
或者你认为我的印象不正确，人们仍然看起来有些脾气暴躁？
I think you’re right.
我认为你是对的。
I think it’s growth plus the hegemonic West expanding, which is not necessarily a bad thing.
我认为这是增长加上西方霸权的扩张，这不一定是坏事。
But a certain set of cultural mores has crumbled, especially in the big — like in Warsaw.
但某些文化习俗已经崩溃，尤其是在像华沙这样的大城市。
I remember how shocked I was when I had really good customer service in a café in maybe 2006, ’07, with the extra American “Would you like anything more with that?” I’m like, “What are you saying?
我记得大约在 2006 年、07 年，当我在一家咖啡馆享受到非常好的客户服务时，我感到多么震惊，而且还有额外的美国人问“你还想要更多吗？”我说：“你在说什么？
Why are you talking to me?”
你为什么要跟我说话？”
The mores had started to shift.
社会风气开始发生转变。
That old, confrontational, dour way of interacting had inflected, and now it’s really changed.
那种古老的、对抗性的、阴沉的互动方式已经发生了变化，现在真的发生了变化。
Now there’s a new generation that seems much more Western, seems much more American.
现在新一代看起来更加西方化，更加美国化。
It’s visible in customer interactions, stores, fashion, and in how people even — facial expressions; eye contact’s a little more direct than it used to be, I think.
它在顾客互动、商店、时尚，甚至人们的面部表情中都可见一斑；我认为眼神交流比以前更直接了一些。
I think of the Russian women I know: they would, say, be in their 50s largely.
我想起了我认识的俄罗斯女性：她们大部分都在 50 多岁。
It’s surprising to me — or was originally — how many of them had their kids quite young.
让我惊讶的是——或者说最初是这样——他们中有多少人的孩子很小。
Maybe they were 20, 21.
也许他们20岁、21岁。
Might have even divorced shortly afterwards and then had kind of a second, real marriage.
甚至可能不久之后就离婚，然后有第二次真正的婚姻。
That pattern seems to have shifted.
这种模式似乎已经改变。
There’s much more marrying in the late 20s, which is more of a US, higher-education, Western European rhythm to childbearing — having children, then, in the early 30s.
20 多岁的时候结婚的人更多，这更像是美国、高等教育、西欧的生育节奏——那么，在 30 岁出头就生孩子了。
What caused that change, and why did they have kids so young to begin with?
是什么导致了这种变化？为什么他们一开始就生孩子？
That’s interesting.
那很有意思。
That’s actually very true of my aunt who stayed in — my mom came to America just to visit her aunt.
对于我留在美国的姨妈来说，情况确实如此——我妈妈来美国只是为了看望她的姨妈。
My aunt stayed in Poland and had her first daughter at 21; had that first, short marriage and then a later marriage, another daughter.
我的姨妈留在波兰，21 岁时生下了她的第一个女儿；第一次是短暂的婚姻，后来又结婚了，又生了一个女儿。
And that has changed.
现在情况已经改变了。
I think it’s a shift to those more Western, more career-oriented, home- and car-oriented, savings-oriented lifestyles.
我认为这是向更西方、更以职业为导向、以家庭和汽车为导向、以储蓄为导向的生活方式的转变。
It was a really different political economy in the ’70s and ’80s.
七十年代和八十年代的政治经济完全不同。
You were not waiting to save up for an apartment; you were usually on a list that your parents put you on, and you were waiting to be granted the right to an apartment.
你不是在等待存钱买公寓；而是在等待。你通常会出现在你父母给你列出的名单上，并且你正在等待获得公寓的权利。
You didn’t have a hope of a car.
你对汽车没有希望。
And jobs were — not exactly a crapshoot, but you were going to be assigned something.
工作并不完全是冒险的事情，但你会被分配一些东西。
You could actually start — if you went through college (even if you didn’t), you might be in a position to have a place to live and an income to support a family at 21, 22, and nothing much to save up for.
你实际上可以开始——如果你读完了大学（即使你没有），你可能会在 21 岁、22 岁的时候有一个住的地方，有一份收入来养家糊口，而且不需要存太多钱。
No real way to save up, no real goal to save towards.
没有真正的储蓄方法，也没有真正的储蓄目标。
And that’s completely shifted.
这完全改变了。
People are trying to wait.
人们正在努力等待。
And in a pretty unstable — in Poland, a volatile — economy, at least in the past 20 years.
至少在过去 20 年里，波兰的经济相当不稳定。
Growing, but with some tremors.
成长，但有一些颤抖。
People have that more Western — of, like, “Save up for — ” Now you can buy a house.
人们有更西方的 - ，比如，“攒钱 - ”现在你可以买房子了。
Apartments have become expensive.
公寓变得昂贵。
It’s a much more Western life track that people are on.
人们的生活轨迹更加西方化。
You’ve studied Poland; you’ve lived there; you’re fluent in Polish.
你研究过波兰；你住在那里；你的波兰语很流利。
If you compare your understanding to, say, your highly educated American readers, what’s the key thing you feel you understand about Polish culture that maybe they don’t?
如果你将你的理解与受过高等教育的美国读者进行比较，你觉得你对波兰文化的理解最关键的一点是什么？而他们可能不理解？
Let’s say they’ve been to Poland once and they’ve read two or three books on it, but they’re not experts.
假设他们去过波兰一次，并且读过两三本有关波兰的书，但他们不是专家。
It’s an interesting question.
这是一个有趣的问题。
I feel I come at Polish culture a little bit askance from the way most Poles come at Polish culture.
我觉得我对波兰文化的看法与大多数波兰人对波兰文化的看法有些不同。
I might say I feel like I have a different approach to Polish culture than Americans who come to Poland cold and from a lot of Poles who see Poland and have grown up in a Poland that’s largely monocultural, monoethnic, monoreligious.
我可能会说，我觉得我对波兰文化的态度不同于那些冷漠地来到波兰的美国人，也不同于许多看到波兰并在一个很大程度上是单一文化、单一种族、单一宗教的波兰长大的波兰人。
Ninety-nine percent Polish-speaking, 99 percent Catholic — around there.
百分之九十九的人说波兰语，百分之九十九的人信天主教——就在附近。
(A little bit of erosion, and now there’s a lot bigger Ukrainian minority than there used to be — but up till recently.) People project that back into the past, that that’s what Poland’s been always.
（有一点侵蚀，现在乌克兰少数民族比以前多得多——但直到最近。）人们将其投射到过去，这就是波兰一直以来的情况。
I come from a Polish Jewish family with Lithuanian roots: split Polish and Jewish, not just Jewish.
我来自一个有立陶宛血统的波兰犹太家庭：波兰人和犹太人的分裂，而不仅仅是犹太人。
Historically, Poland’s been much more mutable.
从历史上看，波兰的变化性要大得多。
It’s expanded and contracted.
它膨胀和收缩。
It’s included many people who we wouldn’t call Poles now but who were under Polish rule.
其中包括许多我们现在不称为波兰人但处于波兰统治之下的人。
It was multireligious.
这是多宗教的。
Jews were part of this state and entity for centuries.
几个世纪以来，犹太人一直是这个国家和实体的一部分。
And it included other minorities.
它还包括其他少数民族。
Belarusians were deeply tied up with this other part of Poland.
白俄罗斯人与波兰的另一个地区有着紧密的联系。
The Grand Duchy of Lithuania.
立陶宛大公国。
In Poland, there’s a name for — there are two schools of thought on what Poland is and should be.
在波兰，有一个名字——“关于波兰是什么和应该是什么”有两种思想流派。
They come from the two dynasties that ruled Poland, the first two dynasties: there’s Piast Poland and Jagiellonian Poland.
他们来自统治波兰的两个王朝，前两个王朝：皮雅斯特波兰和雅盖隆波兰。
Piast is that more narrow, one-culture, one-religion — that’s what’s been assigned to it.
皮亚斯特是一种更狭隘的、单一文化、单一宗教的宗教——这就是它被赋予的意义。
That’s the dominant view.
这是主流观点。
The Jagiellonians are this bigger, “We’re a confederation of peoples.
雅盖隆人更大，“我们是一个民族联盟。
We’re a bigger country.
我们是一个更大的国家。
We have a big-tent version of Polishness.” I come from that.
我们有一个大帐篷版的波兰风格。”我就是从那来的。
I think there’s more to it than most Americans know and also, in a way, than some Poles know.
我认为这比大多数美国人所知道的要多，在某种程度上也比一些波兰人所知道的要多。
This polycultural background: How much do you feel it has strong, deep roots?
这种多元文化背景：您认为它有多少根深蒂固的根基？
Is it your view that “Well, now it’s mostly gone; it really will not come back”?
您是否认为“好吧，现在它已经基本消失了；它真的不会再回来了”？
Or the fact that what we now call Poland was so strongly polycultural, say, 100 years ago, 150 years ago — that this will, in some sense, reemerge, and it will reemerge because it had been part of the past for so long?
或者我们现在所说的波兰是一个如此强烈的多元文化的事实，比如说，100年前，150年前——从某种意义上说，它会重新出现，而且它会重新出现，因为它已经成为过去的一部分这么久了？
Really interesting, because it really was deeply rooted.
真的很有趣，因为它确实根深蒂固。
Deep in the Middle Ages.
深入中世纪。
Definitely in early modernity.
绝对是现代早期。
And that old, supposedly mostly Polish Poland actually was hard to recover.
那个古老的、据说主要是波兰人的波兰实际上很难恢复。
It was the western part of Poland: it had tons of Germans (which people forget).
那是波兰的西部地区：那里有大量的德国人（人们忘记了）。
It was also, in a different way, different balance, multiethnic.
从不同的角度来看，它也是不同的平衡、多种族的。
The 20th century did so much to change Poland’s geography, Poland’s borders, Poland’s ethnic and religious makeup, that if you had asked me that 15 years ago, 10 years ago, I’d say no. Poland is what it is.
20 世纪极大地改变了波兰的地理、波兰的边界、波兰的民族和宗教构成，如果你在 15 年前、10 年前问我这个问题，我会说不。波兰就是这样。
Poland is the white eagle, the pope, the Catholic Church.
波兰是白鹰、教皇、天主教会。
It’s a pretty set thing.
这是一件很固定的事情。
It’s amazing how much I think the war in Ukraine has changed things.
我认为乌克兰战争改变了一切，这真是令人惊讶。
That we’re going towards — and the influx of Ukrainians, and actually Belarusians too.
我们正在走向乌克兰人的涌入，实际上还有白俄罗斯人的涌入。
There are also Chechens in a smaller number; people from the former Soviet Union.
还有数量较少的车臣人。来自前苏联的人。
Because of that war, the perceptions of difference have really shifted in Poland.
由于那场战争，波兰人对差异的看法确实发生了转变。
From a very closed society, I think it’s opened up a little bit in a very meaningful way.
我认为，从一个非常封闭的社会，它以一种非常有意义的方式开放了一点。
It’s recovering some of that polyethnicity that it had lost.
它正在恢复一些已经失去的多种族性。
We’ll see how lasting that is, but I think it’s something that has really shifted the last few years.
我们将会看到这种情况有多持久，但我认为这是过去几年发生的真正变化。
Is there a future of any kind for Germanic culture and influence in Poland?
日耳曼文化和影响力在波兰有未来吗？
As you know, Wroclaw was once Breslau; a lot of the achievement in that city came from people with Germanic origins growing up speaking German.
如您所知，弗罗茨瓦夫曾经是布雷斯劳；那个城市的很多成就都来自于说德语长大的日耳曼人。
Is that somehow inevitable, given where Germany and Poland are?
考虑到德国和波兰的地理位置，这是不可避免的吗？
Or, again, that’s been wiped out: it’s just simply never coming back; Germany’s depopulating; bye-bye Germanic influence in Poland in any direct sense.
或者，再一次，它已经被消灭了：它只是再也不会回来了；德国人口减少；再见日耳曼人对波兰的任何直接影响。
What do you think?
你怎么认为？
I think the Germanic influence comes from Poles living and working in Germany, and especially Silesians.
我认为日耳曼文化的影响来自于在德国生活和工作的波兰人，尤其是西里西亚人。
Silesia, that part of Poland that’s on that side: people there, a larger percentage of them have German or mixed-German roots.
西里西亚，波兰的那一边：那里的人，其中很大一部分有德国血统或德国混血血统。
There’s an area in the south that had a larger number of Germans stay.
南部有一个地区居住着较多的德国人。
(Most Germans left or were forced to leave.) There’s some influence.
（大多数德国人离开或被迫离开。）有一些影响。
But the bigger thing is that that border area, people really go to Germany and Switzerland, Austria to work.
但更大的事情是，那个边境地区，人们真的去德国、瑞士、奥地利工作。
People from eastern Poland: the pattern has been to go to the UK and France and Belgium, or America.
来自波兰东部的人：模式是去英国、法国和比利时，或者美国。
The influence, I think, comes from return migration and cross-border travel.
我认为影响来自回程移民和跨境旅行。
Germans aren’t going that much back to Poland.
德国人不会太多地回到波兰。
People with roots — and there are a lot of Germans with roots in both northern Poland and western Poland — they go: they see the old church, the old cemetery, the old house.
有根的人——而且有很多德国人在波兰北部和波兰西部都有根——他们去了：他们看到了老教堂、老墓地、老房子。
A lot of that stuff is actually intact.
很多东西实际上都完好无损。
There’s nostalgia tours.
有怀旧之旅。
But they’re not moving back very much.
但他们并没有太多地后退。
I think it’s from — what contexts are, what influences are — are from labor migration.
我认为是来自于“什么背景、什么影响”——来自劳务移民。
Why is the best Polish folk art from southern Poland?
为什么最好的波兰民间艺术来自波兰南部？
It is — it is from southern Poland.
它是——它来自波兰南部。
I’ll venture a guess.
我大胆猜测一下。
That’s hard for me to say for sure, but some of it is the mountains are a little different.
我很难肯定地说，但其中一些是山有点不同。
The south of Poland is the only place that has real terrain.
波兰南部是唯一拥有真实地形的地方。
All the rest of it’s flat.
其余部分都是平坦的。
The south has our Carpathian Mountains, has differences.
南方有我们喀尔巴阡山脉，有差异。
And the culture there was different.
那里的文化也不同。
There are Gorals, which just means “mountain people,” in the direct south — Zakopane.
在正南方——扎科帕内有斑羚，意思是“山地人”。
And, in the past, groups called the Boiks and Lemks or Lemkos — Orthodox groups.
而且，在过去，团体被称为 Boiks 和 Lemks 或 Lemkos — 正统团体。
It was a more multicultural area.
这是一个更加多元文化的地区。
And it was Hapsburg.
那是哈布斯堡王朝。
Under the Hapsburgs, it was kind of the most underdeveloped, the most rural, Ruritanian part of Poland.
在哈布斯堡王朝统治下，这里是波兰最不发达、最农村的鲁里塔尼亚地区。
Because Poland’s a nice natural experiment.
因为波兰是一个很好的自然实验。
It was split into three parts in 1795.
1795年，它被分成三部分。
One part went to Prussia and became economically prosperous but culturally uninteresting as the agricultural hinterland of an industrializing state.
一部分人去了普鲁士，作为一个工业化国家的农业腹地，经济繁荣，但文化乏味。
The Russian part became the industrializing center of a more economically backward state — became the Warsaw, which became the big factory hubs, centers.
俄罗斯部分成为一个经济更为落后的国家的工业化中心——成为华沙，成为大型工厂的中心。
And then Galicia, the south, joined the Hapsburg Empire — that was in-between economically — but was left extremely underdeveloped, extremely poor up to independence, up to 1918.
然后，南部的加利西亚加入了哈布斯堡帝国——“经济处于中间状态”——但在独立之前，直到 1918 年，加利西亚一直处于极度不发达、极度贫困的状态。
I think that maybe incubated and kept some of that folklife intact.
我认为这可能孕育并保持了一些民俗生活的完整性。
It was neither industrializing nor Westernizing the way the Prussian area was.
它既没有像普鲁士地区那样工业化，也没有西方化。
That’s speculation.
那是猜测。
It might just be that the paint’s better.
可能只是油漆更好。
Speaking of experiments: If you look at a map, you look at Kaliningrad (formerly Königsberg), you look at the Suwałki Gap — what’s the actual equilibrium there?
说到实验：如果你看地图，你看加里宁格勒（以前的柯尼斯堡），你看苏瓦乌基缺口——那里的实际平衡是多少？
Territory separated from the mother country, Alaska aside, it tends not to go very well, most of all in the history of Eastern Europe.
除了阿拉斯加之外，与母国分离的领土往往不会进展顺利，尤其是在东欧的历史上。
What do you expect?
你期望什么？
Do I expect Polish tanks storming Kant’s birthplace?
我会期待波兰坦克袭击康德的出生地吗？
Not really.
并不真地。
I think, as much as those exclaves used to be — and still are (in Nagorno-Karabakh) — very precarious, being a nuclear power is an awfully big trump card.
我认为，尽管这些飞地曾经——并且仍然（在纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫）——非常不稳定，但成为一个核国家却是一张非常大的王牌。
I can’t see any of the countries surrounding that oblast making a big move.
我看不到该州周边的任何国家有大动作。
I don’t think it’s even that big of a deal.
我认为这没什么大不了的。
In Poland you never talk or think about it.
在波兰你从不谈论或思考它。
A little bit — but I think it’s hard for the Russians to stage anything major from there.
有一点——但我认为俄罗斯人很难从那里上演任何重大的事情。
But it’s also hard for any of the surroundings to do a lot against it.
但周围的任何人也很难对它采取很多措施。
I think it’s a curio.
我认为这是一件古玩。
I don’t think it’s the Crimea of the Baltic.
我不认为这是波罗的海的克里米亚。
I think it’ll be an issue but not a huge issue.
我认为这将是一个问题，但不是一个大问题。
How many Eastern European borders have stayed the same for, say, even 50 or 60 years?
有多少东欧边界保持不变，例如 50 或 60 年？
The Danube’s always been there.
多瑙河一直在那里。
So the Danube’s a good one.
所以多瑙河是一条好河。
Is Bulgaria-Romania — has that been a stable border?
保加利亚-罗马尼亚 ——那是稳定的边界吗？
Not completely.
不完全。
There’s a part that they swapped post–World War II.
二战后他们交换了一部分。
Romania used to cross down and have a little bit more of what’s now the Bulgarian coast.
罗马尼亚曾经跨越现在的保加利亚海岸。
There’s a piece of southern Dobruja, I think, that they swapped.
我想，他们交换了多布罗贾南部的一块土地。
But as a whole, the river — it used to be the frontier of the Roman Empire for a long time.
但从整体上看，这条河——曾在很长一段时间内是罗马帝国的边境。
It’s still a solid Bulgarian-Romanian border, a real linguistic frontier.
它仍然是保加利亚和罗马尼亚的坚实边界，是真正的语言边界。
That’s a solid, longtime frontier.
这是一个坚实的、长期的前沿。
Are there others?
还有其他人吗？
The Carpathians are one of the few natural boundaries.
喀尔巴阡山脉是为数不多的自然边界之一。
That Slovak-Polish border is pretty set for a long time.
斯洛伐克与波兰的边界由来已久。
With so few stable borders — and the ones on the map, that looks the weirdest —
稳定的边界这么少 ——还有地图上的边界，这看起来最奇怪了——
I’m searching, yup.
我正在寻找，是的。
— why not think that will be unstable too?
— 为什么不认为这也会不稳定呢？
So 80 years from now, I would be shocked if the status quo were still holding.
因此，80 年后，如果现状仍然维持下去，我会感到震惊。
In Eastern Europe?
在东欧？
Well, with Kaliningrad and the Suwałki Gap.
好吧，还有加里宁格勒和苏瓦乌基峡谷。
I have no idea which way it will flip.
我不知道它会朝哪个方向翻转。
That’s true.
这是真的。
It’s really Russian there, though.
不过，那里确实是俄罗斯人。
Who would take it back?
谁会把它拿回来？
There aren’t any Polish people there; there are no Lithuanians.
那里没有波兰人；那里没有波兰人。没有立陶宛人。
There’s a Lithuanian nostalgia for part of it.
其中有一部分是立陶宛人的怀旧之情。
Part of it had Lithuanian culture that’s been almost wiped out.
其中一部分的立陶宛文化几乎被消灭了。
Unless it goes independent —
除非它独立 ——
Well, Russia could grow as another possible equilibrium, right?
好吧，俄罗斯可以作为另一种可能的平衡来增长，对吧？
That’s possible.
这是可能的。
We could all be living under the —
我们都可能生活在 ——
Maybe not a pleasant one, but it’s happened before.
也许这不是一件令人愉快的事，但以前也发生过。
It’s true.
这是真的。
There are so many other points of flexion, of tension — in Moldova and Transnistria and Belarus and Ukraine.
在摩尔多瓦、德涅斯特河沿岸、白俄罗斯和乌克兰，还有许多其他的弯曲点和紧张点。
That’s where I would focus.
这就是我要关注的地方。
Kaliningrad: it’s odd, but it’s like the Malta or Luxembourg.
加里宁格勒：这很奇怪，但它就像马耳他或卢森堡。
It could maybe exist for a long time.
它可能会存在很长一段时间。
But I’m not sure.
但我不确定。
These days, why is the food in Poland so good?
现在波兰的食物怎么那么好吃呢？
I’m glad to hear you say that.
我很高兴听到你这么说。
I don’t always think that.
我并不总是这么认为。
It’s some of the best food in Europe.
这是欧洲最好的食物之一。
It’s fantastic.
太棒了。
It’s really good.
真的很好。
The best food I have in Poland — there’s some really good Vietnamese restaurants, because there’s a Vietnamese minority that goes back to the ’70s and ’80s.
我在波兰吃到的最好的食物 ——那里有一些非常好的越南餐馆，因为那里有一个可以追溯到 70 年代和 80 年代的越南少数民族。
But Polish food is best when it’s made by babcias, by Polish grandmas.
但波兰食物最好是由波兰奶奶做的 babcias 做的。
I go to milk bars, and it’s always the best meal.
我去牛奶吧，那总是最好的一餐。
I was up in the Suwałki Gap two years ago, in Suwałki.
两年前，我曾去过苏瓦乌基 (Suwałki) 的苏瓦乌基峡谷 (Suwałki Gap)。
Went to a milk bar, which is a communist relic.
去了一家奶吧，那是共产主义遗迹。
That meant that it was a daytime cafeteria where you’d get Polish standards but you couldn’t get any alcohol.
这意味着这是一家白天的自助餐厅，你可以得到波兰标准的食物，但不能买到任何酒。
Usually, in the bad days, they wouldn’t let you have even the utensils.
通常情况不好的时候，他们连餐具都不给你。
The forks would have two tines so no one would steal them.
叉子有两个尖齿，这样就不会有人偷它们。
But great food: very cheap, very good.
但是食物很棒：非常便宜，非常好。
There are more levels to Polish gastronomy now.
波兰美食现在有更多层次。
You can get really fancy food; you can get incredible artisanal pierogi.
你可以得到非常美味的食物；您可以获得令人难以置信的手工饺子。
But just simple, well-made, country, home-style Polish food is fantastic.
但简单、制作精良、乡村、家庭风格的波兰食物就很棒。
So is Ukrainian, though.
不过，乌克兰语也是如此。
Twentieth-century Polish poetry: I try reading it as a non–Polish speaker, and it doesn’t really make sense to me.
二十世纪波兰诗歌：我尝试以非波兰语使用者的身份来阅读它，但它对我来说并没有真正的意义。
It seems untranslatable.
看来是无法翻译了。
Is there a way a non–Polish speaker can access the glories of those works, or is it more or less lost to us, like Russian poetry might be?
有没有办法让非波兰语使用者能够欣赏这些作品的辉煌，或者我们或多或少会失去这些作品，就像俄罗斯诗歌一样？
No, actually, I think the reverse.
不，实际上，我认为恰恰相反。
I think there’s a split in the 20th century.
我认为20世纪存在分裂。
(Maybe I’m biased; maybe I read them in both.) But I think that a lot of Polish poets —
（也许我有偏见；也许我在两者中都读过它们。）但我认为很多波兰诗人 -
There’s the troika of great postwar poets: Wisława Szymborska, Czesław Miłosz, Zbigniew Herbert.
这里有伟大的战后诗人三驾马车：维斯瓦瓦·辛波斯卡、切斯瓦夫·米沃什、兹比格涅夫·赫伯特。
I think they work really well in translation.
我认为他们在翻译方面做得非常好。
They don’t rely on the things that make Russian poetry so hard and older Polish poetry so hard, which is rhythm and meter and extremely untranslatable wordplay.
他们不依赖那些让俄罗斯诗歌如此困难、让古老的波兰诗歌如此困难的东西，即节奏、韵律和极其不可翻译的双关语。
There’s a poet I love, Bolesław Leśmian, who’s from the early 20th century.
我很喜欢一位诗人，Bolesław Leśmian，他来自 20 世纪初。
He’s really barely been translated, extremely difficult even in Polish, doesn’t work at all in English.
他真的几乎没有被翻译过，即使是波兰语也非常困难，在英语中根本不起作用。
But I think especially Herbert is so spare in Polish as well.
但我认为赫伯特的波兰语也很匮乏。
There’s so little — it’s such a poetry of ideas.
内容如此之少——这是一首充满思想的诗。
I think it comes through really well.
我认为事情进展得非常好。
I think Szymborska is too.
我想辛波斯卡也是。
Where should a person start?
一个人应该从哪里开始？
What’s your advice?
你有什么建议？
Herbert?
赫伯特？
I think Louis Alvarez edited the little — Czesław Miłosz translated (Miłosz, a modern poet).
我认为路易斯·阿尔瓦雷斯（Louis Alvarez）编辑了这部小作品——切斯瓦夫·米沃什（Czesław Miłosz）翻译的作品（米沃什，一位现代诗人）。
You could start with Hermes, pies i gwiazda.
你可以从 Hermes、pies i gwiazda 开始。
That’s Hermes, Dog and Star.
那是赫尔墨斯、狗和星星。
I think “Apollo and Marsyas,” the poem, is maybe my favorite.
我认为《阿波罗和马尔西亚斯》这首诗可能是我最喜欢的。
You could just start with that poem specifically.
你可以专门从那首诗开始。
Why isn’t Stanisław Lem more popular in the West today as a writer?
为什么斯坦尼斯瓦夫·莱姆作为一名作家在当今的西方没有更受欢迎？
That’s interesting.
那很有意思。
I grew up on Stanisław Lem like some people grow up on the Grimms’ Fairy Tales.
我是在《斯坦尼斯瓦夫·莱姆》中长大的，就像有些人是在《格林童话》中长大的一样。
My dad’s a computer scientist.
我爸爸是一名计算机科学家。
His father set up one of Poland’s first computers.
他的父亲安装了波兰第一台计算机。
The world of Polish science and science fiction: he used to read the Tales of Pirx the Pilot and the Ijon Tichy stories — the robots, the short, fun ones — like they were fairy tales.
波兰科学和科幻小说的世界：他过去常常阅读《飞行员皮克斯的故事》和《伊洪·蒂奇的故事》——《机器人，短小而有趣的故事》——就像童话故事一样。
I grew up with them.
我和他们一起长大。
I think — actually I have trouble going back to those.
我想——事实上我很难回到那些。
I’d go back to Solaris, and I think Solaris is a real masterpiece and I think it’s had lasting influence.
我会回到 Solaris，我认为 Solaris 是一个真正的杰作，并且我认为它具有持久的影响力。
But there’s something pessimistic about them.
但他们也有一些悲观的一面。
They don’t have that thing that Asimov does, or even Dune, of world-building and forecasting the human future far in advance.
他们没有阿西莫夫甚至沙丘那样提前构建世界和预测人类未来。
They are like Kafka in space, and that’s absurd situations, strange turns of events — I think a pretty pessimistic view of progress.
他们就像太空中的卡夫卡，这是荒谬的情况，奇怪的事件转折——我认为这是对进步的相当悲观的看法。
Maybe that makes them hard to digest.
也许这使它们难以消化。
Also a kind of odd sense of humor with the short stories.
短篇小说还有一种奇怪的幽默感。
Almost a childlike sense of humor that maybe makes them hard to take.
近乎孩子气的幽默感可能让他们难以接受。
I think there’s been a little bit of a Lem revival, though.
不过，我认为莱姆有一点复兴。
I know technologists, some people like them; futurologists like him.
我认识技术专家，有些人喜欢他们；有些人喜欢他们。像他这样的未来学家。
I like him.
我喜欢他。
Some of the cybernetics tales, they seem weirdly close to the current state of LLMs.
一些控制论故事似乎与法学硕士的现状非常接近。
And I think I’ve seen this mentioned once, but it’s not generally known: the idea that you use them to talk to, that they’re weird, they might be somewhat mystical, they serve as therapists or oracles — that’s very much in Lem, quite early.
我想我曾经看到过这样的说法，但并不普遍为人所知：你用它们来交谈的想法，它们很奇怪，它们可能有点神秘，它们充当治疗师或神谕者 ——这在莱姆很早就有。
I think people should go back to them.
我认为人们应该回到他们身边。
I think — I was just thinking of Solaris, which I always thought about as this story about contacting a truly alien alien.
我想 —— 我只是想到了《Solaris》，我一直认为这是一个关于接触真正的外星外星人的故事。
Now it’s like, well, this is a little bit of what we’re doing with virtual reality and AI.
现在，这就是我们利用虚拟现实和人工智能所做的一些事情。
It’s like, what would happen if you could actually talk to your dreams, if you could revive people?
就像，如果你真的可以与你的梦想交谈，如果你可以复活人们，会发生什么？
You could have the mimicry of consciousness, the appearance of consciousness, without anything behind it — without a consciousness.
你可以拥有意识的模仿、意识的表象，但背后没有任何东西————没有意识。
There’s something seductive about it, and there’s something monstrous about it.
它有一些诱人的东西，也有一些可怕的东西。
I think he was there way ahead of anyone else, and people should be going back to them.
我认为他远远领先于其他人，人们应该回到他们身边。
Maybe they will.
也许他们会的。
We think about Eastern Europe more generally: We’re trying to figure out where various lines fall, where the Roman Empire stretched to or not.
我们更广泛地思考东欧：我们试图找出不同的界限，罗马帝国延伸到哪里。
How much significance do you think that has for the current day?
您认为这对当今有多大意义？
Or has that just been obliterated as a factor?
或者这个因素已经被消除了？
I’ve actually gone to a lot of provincial museums on the old Limes, on the old frontier.
事实上，我去过旧石灰区、旧边境的很多省级博物馆。
You can go and see — I like going to the last Roman fort.
你可以去看看 —— 我喜欢去最后一个罗马堡垒。
You can go to Budapest and see the frontier of the frontier.
你可以去布达佩斯看看边疆的边疆。
You can go in Slovakia and see the last Roman camp.
你可以去斯洛伐克看看最后的罗马营地。
I don’t think it matters in a major way.
我认为这并不重要。
I think the traces come later.
我认为痕迹是后来出现的。
It’s where the imprint of Byzantium is still around.
这是拜占庭的印记仍然存在的地方。
The imprint of the East Roman Empire and its extensions, and the extensions of its church: that really matters.
东罗马帝国及其延伸以及其教堂的延伸的印记：这确实很重要。
The world of Orthodoxy versus the world of Catholicism.
东正教世界与天主教世界。
Those lines — there was such an obliteration of the Roman Empire and its legacy, at least in Eastern Europe, between the 5th century and the 10th century — those old lines got obscured and new ones got put in in the 900s and the 1000s.
这些线条 ——“至少在东欧，从 5 世纪到 10 世纪，罗马帝国及其遗产被抹杀了”——那些旧的线条被模糊了，而新的线条在 900 年代和 1000 年代被添加了。
The fact that so much of Croatia is Catholic rather than Orthodox: Should that make us more optimistic about economic growth for Croatia?
克罗地亚大部分地区信仰天主教而不是东正教：这是否会让我们对克罗地亚的经济增长更加乐观？
Or it’s just not going to matter?
或者这并不重要？
More optimistic than —
比 更乐观——
More optimistic.
更加乐观。
So Slovenia has done extremely well, right?
所以斯洛文尼亚做得非常好，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
It’s essentially at Western European living standards.
这基本上符合西欧的生活水平。
Croatia is not there, but the fact that it is not dominantly Orthodox Christianity: Should we then infer it’s going to join the Western European community in some fundamental way that perhaps Bulgaria will not?
克罗地亚不在那里，但事实上它并不是占主导地位的东正教：那么我们是否应该推断它将以某种基本方式加入西欧社区，而保加利亚也许不会？
I think we should be optimistic about Croatia.
我认为我们应该对克罗地亚持乐观态度。
I think the EU is the driver of a lot of that.
我认为欧盟是其中很大一部分的推动者。
I don’t think we should be that pessimistic about Romania and Bulgaria.
我认为我们不应该对罗马尼亚和保加利亚那么悲观。
I think, actually, Romania is showing — and that’s coming out of communism, a much more rural, much more backward economy than Slovenia — but I think it’s growing really fast.
我认为，事实上，罗马尼亚正在表现出“——这是来自共产主义，比斯洛文尼亚更农村、更落后的经济——”但我认为它的增长速度非常快。
I think things are actually pretty OK there politically.
我认为那里的政治情况实际上还不错。
I think that idea of an Orthodox disease is maybe a figment of geography more than a deeply cultural matrix that we think.
我认为正统疾病的想法可能是地理上的虚构，而不是我们认为的深刻的文化矩阵。
I’m not — I think we could be optimistic about Croatia and Romania simultaneously.
我不是——我认为我们可以同时对克罗地亚和罗马尼亚感到乐观。
Bulgaria maybe too.
保加利亚也许也是。
I’m not sure that I believe in a kind of Orthodox curse.
我不确定我是否相信某种东正教的诅咒。
I think it has more to do with how things shook up internally in former Yugoslavia and where those countries are in relationship to that industrial core of Germany, Austria, Switzerland.
我认为这更多地与前南斯拉夫内部的变化以及这些国家与德国、奥地利、瑞士等工业核心的关系有关。
How will Romania and Bulgaria, in particular, deal with depopulation?
特别是罗马尼亚和保加利亚将如何应对人口减少问题？
You can move almost anywhere in the EU.
您几乎可以搬到欧盟的任何地方。
Their birth rates are low and probably falling.
他们的出生率很低，而且可能还会下降。
There’s also, not so far away, North Africa, growing population, a lot of migration using boats.
另外，在不远的地方，北非人口不断增长，大量移民使用船只。
They’re closer to that than, you know, Finland is.
他们比芬兰更接近这个目标。
What’s that going to look like?
那会是什么样子？
How many people will be in those places, and where will they come from?
这些地方会有多少人，他们来自哪里？
Well, Romania’s birth rate is pretty high.
嗯，罗马尼亚的出生率相当高。
I think it’s right along the top of — maybe I’m a little out of date, but along the top of European birth rates, and probably because it’s quite a rural country.
我认为它位于欧洲出生率的顶部——也许我有点落伍了，但它位于欧洲出生率的顶部，可能是因为它是一个相当农村的国家。
They —
他们 ——
That’s going to change as they grow, right?
随着他们的成长，情况会发生变化，对吗？
And a lot of people have left and will leave.
很多人已经离开并且将会离开。
Well, right now there’s a huge influx of Ukrainians and probably — well, Moldovans all left.
好吧，现在有大量乌克兰人涌入，可能还有摩尔多瓦人都留下了。
A quarter of Moldova left Moldova.
四分之一的摩尔多瓦人离开了摩尔多瓦。
Romanians will also return.
罗马尼亚人也将回归。
A great way to find out what’s going under the surface in European labor and migration is go to bus stations — long-haul bus stations.
要了解欧洲劳动力和移民背后的情况，一个好方法是前往公交车站 ——长途公交车站。
I remember trying to catch a bus from Seville to Lisbon, which for whatever reason is really hard.
我记得我试图搭乘从塞维利亚到里斯本的巴士，无论出于何种原因，这真的很难。
It’s not a good connection.
这不是一个好的连接。
But I was at the bus station, and there were tons of buses to places like Câmpulung Moldovenesc, Suceava, Botoşani: rural Moldavian cities (the part of Moldavia in Romania).
但我当时在公交车站，那里有大量公交车开往坎普隆摩尔多瓦内斯克 (Câmpulung Moldovenesc)、苏恰瓦 (Suceava)、博托沙尼 (Botoşani) 等地：摩尔达维亚乡村城市（摩尔达维亚在罗马尼亚的一部分）。
Seventeen 25-hour bus rides because there are so many Romanians in Spain.
十七趟25小时的巴士，因为西班牙有很多罗马尼亚人。
And you can see the same thing in Italy, same thing in Portugal.
你可以在意大利看到同样的事情，在葡萄牙也可以看到同样的事情。
Some of those people are going to come back.
其中一些人会回来。
A lot of them are coming back.
他们中的很多人都会回来。
You’re going to get an influx from over the border.
你将从边境涌入。
Right now, Ukraine is going to lose people because that economy is going to be in, I think, crisis for a long time.
现在，乌克兰将失去人员，因为我认为该经济将长期陷入危机。
The migrants that are coming overland from Asia: they tend not to stop in the Balkans.
从亚洲陆路而来的移民：他们往往不会在巴尔干地区停留。
That’s a thruway for them, even in Hungary.
即使在匈牙利，这对他们来说也是一条高速公路。
They are trying to get to Germany, France, Great Britain.
他们正试图前往德国、法国、英国。
Very rarely do the migrants from — maybe a little bit, but that’s not a major influx.
来自 的移民很少——也许有一点，但这并不是主要的涌入。
Because also the living standard gap I don’t think is big enough.
因为我认为生活水平差距还不够大。
Does Moldavia have a future as an independent nation?
摩尔达维亚作为一个独立国家有未来吗？
I hope so.
我希望如此。
Obviously it’s very small; it’s next to conflict.
显然它很小；它紧邻冲突。
Shouldn’t they just join Romania and then just be part of the EU?
他们不应该加入罗马尼亚然后成为欧盟的一部分吗？
Why isn’t that a dominant move for them?
为什么这对他们来说不是一个主导性的举动？
There has been a big political movement, and I think if they could do it, I think a lot of people would do it.
已经发生了一场很大的政治运动，我想如果他们能做到的话，我想很多人都会这么做。
They just renamed their language “Romanian.” The complicated history of Moldavian as a separate language has maybe come to an end.
他们刚刚将自己的语言重新命名为“罗马尼亚语”。摩尔达维亚语作为一种独立语言的复杂历史也许已经结束。
I think they voted in parliament after my book went to press, because I talk a little bit about Moldavian language and the Moldavian national anthem.
我认为他们在我的书付印后在议会投票，因为我谈了一些摩尔达维亚语言和摩尔达维亚国歌。
After it was in press, they had this vote and “Moldavian” is now officially “Romanian.”
出版后，他们进行了投票，“摩尔达维亚”现在正式成为“罗马尼亚语”。
There is a move to — if they could make it work with Romania, I think a lot of people would do it.
有一个举措是“如果他们能够与罗马尼亚合作，我想很多人都会这样做。”
Then it’s the problem of Transnistria, which would not want to do it, which is much more ethnically Russian and essentially a separatist enclave.
然后是德涅斯特河沿岸的问题，它不想这样做，它在种族上更俄罗斯化，本质上是一个分离主义飞地。
There’d be a real problem in how to incorporate it.
如何整合它是一个真正的问题。
Moldavian politics is not split Right, Left.
摩尔多瓦的政治没有右派和左派之分。
It’s split pro-EU, pro-Russia.
它分为亲欧盟和亲俄罗斯。
And pro-EU is the dominant force right now.
而亲欧盟是目前的主导力量。
Is there a future for a Serbian comeback where Belgrade again becomes a major transport hub, the country does well, it moves away from flirting with fascism, becomes less close with Putin’s Russia?
塞尔维亚是否有卷土重来的未来，贝尔格莱德再次成为主要交通枢纽，该国表现良好，不再与法西斯主义调情，与普京领导下的俄罗斯关系不再那么密切？
Is there any path you can see for that happening — or that’s just a pipe dream?
你是否能看到这种情况发生的任何路径 ——或者这只是一个白日梦？
A transit hub?
交通枢纽？
Well, it originally was a big transit hub for the Balkans — say 30, 40 years ago.
嗯，大约 30、40 年前，它最初是巴尔干地区的一个大型交通枢纽。
It was, relative to its peer group, quite prosperous.
相对于其同行群体，它相当繁荣。
Now you go there: you see nice old buildings, but it feels like it doesn’t have much of a future — it’s in decline.
现在你去那里：你看到漂亮的老建筑，但感觉它没有太多的未来 ——它正在衰落。
It is one of the best Balkan cities to party in.
它是巴尔干半岛最适合聚会的城市之一。
Absolutely.
绝对的。
It’s one of the funnest Balkan cities.
它是巴尔干最有趣的城市之一。
It has reinvented itself as a Balkan party center.
它已将自己重塑为巴尔干派对中心。
It really has this incredible culture of discos and these houseboats on the Danube where people party on.
它确实拥有令人难以置信的迪斯科文化和多瑙河上的人们聚会的船屋。
To become a genuine transit hub I guess they would have to make nice with everybody around them and rebuild.
要成为真正的交通枢纽，我想他们必须与周围的每个人都和睦相处并进行重建。
It is hard to travel around the Balkans now because there are hardly any long-distance railways.
现在在巴尔干半岛旅行很困难，因为几乎没有长途铁路。
It’s hard to even cross the — I had a terrible time going from Belgrade to Sarajevo because you don’t get sent to Sarajevo, you get sent to the Sarajevo that belongs to Republika Srpska, the Serbian part of Bosnia.
甚至穿越都很难——从贝尔格莱德到萨拉热窝，我度过了一段糟糕的时光，因为你不会被送到萨拉热窝，你会被送到属于塞族共和国的萨拉热窝，波斯尼亚的塞尔维亚部分。
If they could resolve all their regional conflicts, then yes, that city is in a perfect position.
如果他们能够解决所有地区冲突，那么是的，那个城市处于完美的位置。
That’s why it was so strategic for the Ottomans and the Hungarians and the Yugoslavs.
这就是为什么它对奥斯曼帝国、匈牙利人和南斯拉夫来说如此具有战略意义。
But yes, it’s a political issue, and I think it’s one that’s not going to be resolved very quickly.
但是，是的，这是一个政治问题，而且我认为这个问题不会很快得到解决。
Between the Bosnian problems, between Kosovo, it’s not happening in the short term.
在波斯尼亚问题和科索沃问题之间，短期内不会发生这种情况。
However, the Serbian solution is to be close to Russia and China.
然而，塞尔维亚的解决方案是接近俄罗斯和中国。
They have increasingly close links to especially China.
他们与特别是中国的联系日益密切。
Maybe they’re an island of Chinese influence in the Balkans.
也许它们是巴尔干地区受中国影响的一个岛屿。
It’s their future.
这是他们的未来。
The Serbian obsession with, I guess you’d have to call it the 14th century: Is it an actual historic obsession or is it a stand-in for some other clash of values?
塞尔维亚人对 14 世纪的痴迷，我想你得称之为 14 世纪：这是一种真正的历史痴迷，还是其他价值观冲突的替代品？
How do you frame that or think about it?
您如何看待或思考它？
So when you ask Serbians about Kosovo, they’ll tell you all these long stories about “the Serbian heartland is in Kosovo” and “Kosovo is Serbia.” Putting aside whether or not one agrees with any of that, what is it that they really mean when they’re saying it?
因此，当你向塞尔维亚人询问科索沃时，他们会告诉你所有这些关于“塞尔维亚的心脏地带在科索沃”和“科索沃是塞尔维亚”的长篇故事。撇开人们是否同意其中任何一点不谈，他们说这句话时真正的意思是什么？
The Battle of the Field of Blackbirds, 1389: it is pivotal in Serbian memory and Serbian mythmaking, that moment — although they really mythologized it — of the great defeat of Serbia at the hands of the Ottomans, and then wresting a kind of victory by assassinating the Ottoman sultan in the last second after the battle’s been lost.
1389年的黑鸟战场之战：它在塞尔维亚人的记忆和塞尔维亚神话中至关重要，那一刻————尽管他们确实将其神话化了————塞尔维亚惨败于奥斯曼人手中，然后在战斗失败后的最后一秒刺杀了奥斯曼苏丹，取得了某种胜利。
I think there’s a real pull of history.
我认为历史确实具有吸引力。
There’s a real pull of the defeat.
失败确实具有吸引力。
But in terms of a larger value, it’s the dream of Serbia as a great country.
但从更大的价值来看，这是塞尔维亚作为一个伟大国家的梦想。
Eastern European countries fall in two categories.
东欧国家分为两类。
There are countries that are small, and they’re happy being small — it’s a minority — and countries that are small to medium and dream of being big.
有些国家是小国家，他们乐于做小国家——“它是少数国家”——还有一些国家是中小国家，梦想成为大国。
Poland dreams of being big, but those dreams are less prominent than they used to be.
波兰梦想成为大国，但这些梦想不像以前那么突出了。
Hungary dreams of returning to being big, and those dreams are still around.
匈牙利梦想重返大国，而这些梦想仍然存在。
And Serbia dreams of being big.
塞尔维亚梦想成为大国。
It had that oversize role in Yugoslavia.
它在南斯拉夫发挥着巨大的作用。
Yugoslavia was, in a way, at least to some Serbs, not a Serbian empire but a big sphere of influence where they were the top dog.
在某种程度上，至少对一些塞尔维亚人来说，南斯拉夫不是一个塞尔维亚帝国，而是一个巨大的势力范围，他们是其中的最高统治者。
They were the big player.
他们是大玩家。
The Yugoslav Kingdom was very much like that, formed around Serbia.
南斯拉夫王国与此非常相似，是在塞尔维亚周围形成的。
And Kosovo is the last piece of that.
科索沃是最后一块。
Once they lose that, and Montenegro, they’re really a small country.
一旦他们失去了这一点，那么黑山就真的是一个小国家了。
There really is no more dream.
真的没有梦想了。
That’s how I read it.
我就是这样读的。
Once the United States steps back from that region, which sooner or later will happen — probably not sooner — won’t it just become part of Serbia, and they’ll get their larger nation back?
一旦美国从该地区撤出，这迟早会发生——“可能不会更早”——“它不会成为塞尔维亚的一部分，而他们会夺回他们更大的国家吗？”
Well, not if Greater Albania has anything to say about it.
好吧，如果大阿尔巴尼亚对此有什么要说的话，那就不是了。
Kosovo is so dominantly ethnically Albanian.
科索沃的族裔以阿尔巴尼亚族为主。
It is a —
这是一个 ——
That doesn’t mean they can defend themselves, right?
这并不意味着他们可以保护自己，对吗？
Or do we get another Balkans war where there’s an Albanian ethnic movement for some kind of Greater Albania, there’s a movement for a Greater Serbia, those two clash and they end up fighting?
或者我们是否会再次爆发巴尔干战争，其中有阿尔巴尼亚民族运动争取某种大阿尔巴尼亚，有一场争取大塞尔维亚的运动，这两者发生冲突并最终开战？
If you go to Kosovo, everywhere you see big silver monuments to the heroes of the 1999 Kosovar War and KLA members.
如果你去科索沃，随处可见纪念 1999 年科索沃战争英雄和科索沃解放军成员的巨大银色纪念碑。
That’s going to be just a horrible — if Serbia were to take over Kosovo, it would be a nightmare insurgency.
这将是一场可怕的——如果塞尔维亚接管科索沃，那将是一场噩梦般的叛乱。
Maybe Serbia doesn’t — I definitely don’t think it’s worth it except on a — just satisfying psychological craving.
也许塞尔维亚不 —— 我绝对不认为这是值得的，除非 —— 只是为了满足心理渴望。
There’s a little Serbian majority strip — not a clear majority, but most of the Serbs live close to Serbia.
有一小部分塞尔维亚人占多数——不是明显多数，但大多数塞尔维亚人居住在塞尔维亚附近。
Maybe some kind of partial partitioning in the future.
也许将来会进行某种部分分区。
But an actual Serbian takeover of Kosovo?
但塞尔维亚实际上接管了科索沃吗？
I hope that doesn’t happen, because I think it would be ugly for both sides.
我希望这不会发生，因为我认为这对双方来说都是丑陋的。
Does Albania still have dreams of being something greater and larger?
阿尔巴尼亚是否仍然梦想着变得越来越伟大？
Because if you look at an ethnic map, it at least feels from the picture like maybe it could be.
因为如果你看一张民族地图，至少从图片上感觉可能是这样。
Well, there are a lot of Albanians outside of Albania, and it matters to them.
嗯，阿尔巴尼亚境外有很多阿尔巴尼亚人，这对他们来说很重要。
I was in Montenegro and I was in the Albanian — there’s an Albanian part of Montenegro that people don’t know about, in Ulcinj.
我在黑山，我在阿尔巴尼亚——黑山有一个人们不知道的阿尔巴尼亚部分，那就是乌尔齐尼。
Used to be the great Venetian city there; is dominant Albanian.
那里曾经是伟大的威尼斯城；以阿尔巴尼亚语为主。
Macedonia — North Macedonia has an Albanian majority.
马其顿——北马其顿的人口中阿尔巴尼亚人占多数。
The region is almost a quarter Albanian, just about a quarter.
该地区几乎有四分之一是阿尔巴尼亚人，只有四分之一左右。
And then Kosovo is majority Albanian.
然后科索沃的大部分人口是阿尔巴尼亚人。
I don’t know that Albania has expansionist ideas, but — to the extent that they have foreign policy aims — they do have to support their ethnic, their linguistic allies.
我不知道阿尔巴尼亚有扩张主义思想，但是——“就他们的外交政策目标而言”——他们确实必须支持他们的种族、语言盟友。
There is a lot of intermovement.
有很多交互作用。
Kosovars go back and forth from Albania all the time.
科索沃人一直往返于阿尔巴尼亚。
Albanians go to Kosovo.
阿尔巴尼亚人去科索沃。
That’s an open border.
这是一个开放的边界。
That’s very easy to cross.
这是非常容易跨越的。
Tons of people are constantly pouring across, and those relationships are very close.
大量的人源源不断地涌来，这些人的关系非常密切。
Does Albania have the power, have the ability to project a lot of power into its neighbors?
阿尔巴尼亚有实力、有能力向邻国投射大量力量吗？
Maybe — I’m not sure.
也许 —— 我不确定。
but politically they do have to stand up for their co-ethnics.
但在政治上，他们确实必须捍卫自己的同族裔。
Is there some level of per capita income where you think this all more or less goes away?
您认为人均收入达到一定水平后，这一切或多或少都会消失吗？
So you look at the two Irelands: you can’t say it’s settled.
所以你看看这两个爱尔兰：你不能说事情已经解决了。
There’s no reunification, but it’s quite peaceful and we’re just not too worried about it, right?
虽然没有统一，但很和平，我们也不太担心，对吧？
People are not religious.
人们没有宗教信仰。
They’re fairly well off, whatever the problems may be.
无论存在什么问题，他们都相当富裕。
Is that the likely future for the Balkans?
这就是巴尔干地区可能的未来吗？
That they become like the Irelands and everything festers but it’s just all quite fine because wealth is up?
他们变得像爱尔兰人一样，一切都在恶化，但一切都很好，因为财富增加了？
Or do you think it’s something darker than that?
或者你认为这比这更黑暗？
That everyone is rich and happy and all the problems are Belgian problems that you kind of just live with?
每个人都富有、幸福，所有的问题都是比利时的问题，而你却只能忍受？
Yes.
是的。
No one’s happy, and Belgium might split up still, but —
没人高兴，比利时可能还是会分裂，但是 ——
It might.
可能会。
— nonetheless it all feels quite diffused, whether it’s Ireland or Belgium.
——尽管如此，无论是爱尔兰还是比利时，一切都感觉相当分散。
Some people would say Spain; maybe that’s still up for grabs.
有人会说西班牙；也许这仍然有待争夺。
I think so.
我想是的。
Maybe this is naive, but the more European integration happens, the more that does lift some of those regional and enclave problems, as you can devolve some things to the EU.
也许这很天真，但欧洲一体化程度越高，就越能解决一些地区和飞地问题，因为你可以将一些事情移交给欧盟。
If the EU were to expand there — I think it would help a lot of those problems.
如果欧盟在那里扩张 —— 我认为这将有助于解决很多这些问题。
Is there a specific income level?
有具体的收入水平吗？
They have a long way to go in Albania, North Macedonia, Kosovo.
他们在阿尔巴尼亚、北马其顿、科索沃还有很长的路要走。
These are, aside from Moldova, the poorest countries in Europe.
除摩尔多瓦外，这些国家是欧洲最贫穷的国家。
The amount of catching up before we can be Switzerland and all live happily together: it’s pretty big.
在我们成为瑞士并幸福地生活在一起之前，我们需要迎头赶上：这是相当大的。
If they did get there — and maybe they will — I think the temperature would go down.
如果他们真的到达了那里 — 也许他们会 — 我认为温度会下降。
I don’t think it’s bred in the bone in some way.
我不认为它以某种方式从骨子里孕育出来。
I think the temperature has been going down.
我认为气温已经下降了。
I looked at some data recently.
我最近看了一些数据。
The most rapidly growing economy in Eastern Europe is Poland — no surprise.
东欧增长最快的经济体是波兰——这并不奇怪。
But №2 is Albania.
但排名第二的是阿尔巴尼亚。
And the place is booming.
这个地方正在蓬勃发展。
What happened there?
那里发生了什么？
No one expected that.
没有人预料到这一点。
What have they done right?
他们做对了什么？
It struck me — I was in Albania.
我突然意识到——我当时在阿尔巴尼亚。
I really did a deep tour of Albania and the Albaniphone regions next to it last year.
去年我确实深度游览了阿尔巴尼亚和它旁边的Albaniphone地区。
And you do feel that boom.
你确实感受到了那种繁荣。
You can feel there’s a lot of Gulf investment, Saudi investment.
你可以感觉到有很多海湾投资，沙特投资。
There’s a ton of road building.
有大量的道路建设。
There’s a ton of, actually, really good cultural infrastructure being built.
事实上，有大量非常好的文化基础设施正在建设中。
They’re doing a great job with museums and heritage.
他们在博物馆和遗产方面做得很好。
I was renting a car from somebody — a little Albanian car rental.
我从某人那里租了一辆车——一家阿尔巴尼亚小汽车租赁公司。
The guy told me he spends six months in Albania; the other six months he goes to Great Britain.
那个人告诉我他在阿尔巴尼亚待了六个月；他在阿尔巴尼亚待了六个月。另外六个月他去了英国。
He works outside London as a programmer.
他在伦敦郊外担任程序员。
He had programmed, he had designed, all his car rental agency’s programming.
他已经编程、他设计了他的汽车租赁公司的所有程序。
I think there’s an openness.
我认为有一种开放性。
I think you have return migration from Italy and Switzerland and the UK that’s doing well.
我认为来自意大利、瑞士和英国的回国移民表现良好。
There’s enormous untapped tourism potential, because it’s the last piece of European — really prime Mediterranean coastline that hasn’t been developed deeply, extensively.
这里有巨大的未开发旅游潜力，因为它是欧洲——真正的地中海黄金海岸线中最后一块尚未得到深度、广泛开发的地区。
In a small country, I think that really matters.
在一个小国家，我认为这确实很重要。
What else?
还有什么？
I’m not sure.
我不知道。
It’s under 3 million people, so small effects can have big consequences.
人口不足 300 万人，因此小影响可能会产生大后果。
Why are there so few Christian-Muslim problems in Albania relative to many other places in the world?
为什么与世界上许多其他地方相比，阿尔巴尼亚的基督教-穆斯林问题如此之少？
There are hardly any, and they have two —
几乎没有，但他们有两个 ——
Is it Bektashi Muslims or some other reason?
是拜克塔什穆斯林还是其他原因？
There is a very moderate Sufi strain to Islam there.
那里的伊斯兰教有非常温和的苏菲派倾向。
Although there’s some proselytizing by Salafis.
尽管萨拉菲派也有一些传教活动。
It’s not just that anymore.
不再只是这样了。
There’s also two kinds of Christian: the Orthodox south, and actually the Catholic north was where all the tribal violence is.
基督教也有两种：南方的东正教，而北方的天主教实际上是所有部落暴力发生的地方。
Those are the great Catholic hill tribes — were the really violent ones that do blood feud.
这些是伟大的天主教山地部落——是真正暴力、血海深仇的部落。
The take on this in Albania is that — I think one of their main poets said that the religion of Albanians is Albanianism — is that they’re all Albanian.
阿尔巴尼亚对此的看法是，“我认为他们的一位主要诗人说阿尔巴尼亚人的宗教是阿尔巴尼亚主义”，他们都是阿尔巴尼亚人。
They’re all Albanian-speaking.
他们都讲阿尔巴尼亚语。
It kind of dilutes those differences.
它在某种程度上淡化了这些差异。
There’s a lot of intermarriage.
有很多异族通婚。
The Islam is very mild.
伊斯兰教非常温和。
And the conflicts run in all different directions.
冲突朝着各个不同的方向发展。
Historically, they’re clan-based: clan-on-clan, not religion-on-religion.
从历史上看，它们是基于氏族的：氏族对氏族，而不是宗教对宗教。
The temperature: beyond just being this very mild Sufi Islam, the years of official atheism also cooled the temperature on religion a lot.
温度：除了非常温和的苏菲伊斯兰教之外，多年来官方的无神论也大大降低了宗教的温度。
The religion is .
宗教是。
.
。
.
。
all three — Catholicism, Orthodoxy, Islam — are kind of muted, culturally, and Albanian national unity is more prominent psychologically.
这三种宗教——天主教、东正教、伊斯兰教——在文化上都比较低调，而阿尔巴尼亚的民族团结在心理上更为突出。
Hungary: What is your read on the current political situation?
匈牙利：您对当前政治局势有何看法？
This has become a political football of sorts amongst the American Right.
这已经成为美国右翼之间的某种政治足球。
How bad is it — how far is it straying from, either, whether it’s democracy or rule of law (that is itself debated)?
它到底有多糟糕——无论是民主还是法治（这本身就有争议），它偏离了多远？
How should I think about politics in Hungary?
我应该如何看待匈牙利的政治？
Hungary is pretty fascinating.
匈牙利确实很迷人。
It’s like if an American red state were completely captured by one party leader — or not, it doesn’t have to be a red state; could be like a Huey Long–type figure — who then was powerful enough to start really changing the rules.
这就好像美国的一个红色州完全被一个政党领导人占领一样——无论是否，它不一定是一个红色州；可能就像休伊·朗（Huey Long）那样的人物——然后他就足够强大，可以开始真正改变规则。
And to always color within the lines technically, while changing what those lines are.
并始终在技术上对线条进行着色，同时改变这些线条的内容。
To be able to change the constitution — and a kind of legal authoritarianism.
能够改变宪法——以及一种法律威权主义。
I’ve talked to people who know Orbán, knew him as a student, knew him as an activist, as a libertarian-ish student leader.
我和认识欧尔班的人交谈过，认识他的学生身份、活动家身份、自由意志主义的学生领袖身份。
The thing they all say is that he’s incredibly smart, incredibly professional politician.
他们都说他是一位非常聪明、非常专业的政治家。
He’s obsessed with the details of politics.
他痴迷于政治细节。
He’s obsessed with the details of policy.
他痴迷于政策细节。
He’s obsessed with the details of self-presentation.
他痴迷于自我展示的细节。
He has no particular ideological allegiance.
他没有特定的意识形态忠诚度。
This idea of him as a Christian nationalist is something he came up with strategically.
他作为一名基督教民族主义者的想法是他战略性地提出的。
Everything, with him, is a strategic calculation on how to build and maintain power: his own power and his party’s power.
对他来说，一切都是关于如何建立和维持权力的战略计算：他自己的权力和他的政党的权力。
He’s extremely good at it.
他非常擅长。
He uses countless small measures that add up to small electoral victories and then takes those small electoral victories and parlays them into huge constitutional and transformational things across Hungary.
他使用了无数的小措施，这些小措施加起来就是小的选举胜利，然后将这些小的选举胜利转化为匈牙利各地巨大的宪法和变革事物。
He controls more and more of the media, more and more of the economy.
他控制着越来越多的媒体，越来越多的经济。
He’s harder and harder to unseat.
他越来越难被推翻。
Yet it’s not a hard dictatorship.
但这并不是一个强硬的独裁统治。
I don’t think he would ever fire on crowds.
我认为他不会向人群开枪。
I don’t think, faced with mass protest, he would resort to excessive violence.
我认为，面对大规模抗议，他不会诉诸过度暴力。
I don’t think he has the support in the police or any of the security services to be that kind of ruler, even if he wanted to be.
我认为他没有得到警察或任何安全部门的支持来成为这样的统治者，即使他想成为这样的统治者。
So it’s a strange hybrid.
所以这是一个奇怪的混合体。
And you think it’s broadly compatible with Hungary just staying in the EU: people looking a bit the other way on both sides, but it can just continue?
你认为这与匈牙利留在欧盟大体上是兼容的：双方的人们都有点另眼相看，但它可以继续下去吗？
Or not?
或不？
I think it’s amazing it’s gotten to this point.
我认为事情发展到这一步真是太神奇了。
And the EU has abetted him, effectively.
欧盟有效地怂恿了他。
EU funds, which are hugely transformational in Hungary: if you drive around the Hungarian countryside, it’s kind of annoying because every 500 meters, it feels like, you come to a roundabout under construction, pointlessly.
欧盟基金对匈牙利产生了巨大的变革：如果你在匈牙利乡村开车兜风，这有点烦人，因为每行驶 500 米，你就会感觉自己毫无意义地来到了一个正在建设中的环岛。
And that’s all EU money, and it’s all under the control of companies that — construction firms essentially act as extensions of Fidesz and Orbán’s power.
这些都是欧盟的资金，而且都在那些基本上充当青民盟和欧尔班权力延伸的建筑公司的控制之下。
They control, as a party, this tap of money, and that helps solidify their power.
作为一个政党，他们控制着金钱的流向，这有助于巩固他们的权力。
The EU effectively helps fund their dominance as a political movement, as a political party.
欧盟有效地帮助资助他们作为政治运动和政党的主导地位。
To me, it’s strange that it’s gotten to the point that it’s gotten, but unless there’s a big movement in Hungarian society, which has tended to be pretty quiescent, I don’t know how the EU would really — or why the EU would decisively step in.
对我来说，事情发展到了这个地步，这很奇怪，但除非匈牙利社会发生一场大的运动，否则匈牙利社会往往相当平静，我不知道欧盟会如何真正采取行动，也不知道欧盟为什么会果断介入。
The things that have gotten people really out in the streets in Hungary: one of the big ones was when internet prices were going to go up, and they backed down.
在匈牙利，真正让人们走上街头的事情是：其中最大的事情之一是当互联网价格即将上涨时，他们就退缩了。
He tends to back down when there’s a big protest.
当发生大规模抗议时，他往往会退缩。
He does respond to that signal, but they keep the temperature pretty low in Hungary.
他确实对这个信号做出了回应，但匈牙利的气温保持在相当低的水平。
Why are so many Hungarians so concerned with Trianon, the loss of territory?
为什么这么多匈牙利人如此关心特里亚农宫（Trianon）的领土丧失？
Who cares?
谁在乎？
Why should they care?
他们为什么要关心？
What are they hoping to get?
他们希望得到什么？
I don’t think they care, literally.
从字面上看，我认为他们不在乎。
I think it’s a little bit “Remember the Alamo.” It by this point has moved into the realm of national symbols and symbology.
我认为这有点像“记住阿拉莫”。至此，它已经进入了国家象征和符号学的领域。
You’ll see the Trianon belt buckles for sale and people wearing them where you have, like, “Free Trianon,” like “Big Hungary.” You can have a big silver one as a kind of Texas-style belt buckle.
你会看到特里亚农 (Trianon) 皮带扣出售，人们在“免费特里亚农”(Free Trianon)、“大匈牙利”(Big Hungary) 等地方佩戴它们。你可以有一个大的银色皮带扣，作为一种德克萨斯风格的皮带扣。
I don’t think that literally means — when people wear those, does that literally mean they want Bačka back from Serbia, that they want southern Slovakia back from Slovakia?
我不认为这字面意思是“当人们穿上这些衣服时，这是否真的意味着他们想要从塞尔维亚夺回巴奇卡，他们想要从斯洛伐克夺回斯洛伐克南部？”
Not exactly.
不完全是。
They’re one of those Eastern European countries that’s small but dreams of being big.
他们是东欧小国之一，但梦想成为大国。
They still have that sense of being robbed (which in a way they were), since their historical destiny was denied.
他们仍然有那种被抢劫的感觉（在某种程度上他们确实如此），因为他们的历史命运被否定了。
And Orbán will play with that a little bit.
欧尔班会稍微考虑一下这一点。
He will suggest that maybe if Ukraine were to fall apart, and it’s about to fall apart, maybe there’s a little corner of Ukraine that was once Hungarian over on the other side of the Carpathians — maybe they should get that back.
他会建议，也许如果乌克兰要分崩离析，而且即将分崩离析，也许乌克兰的一个小角落曾经是匈牙利人在喀尔巴阡山脉的另一边——也许他们应该把它拿回来。
But that’s more in the realm of dreams and symbols, not actual foreign policy aspirations.
但这更多的是梦想和象征领域，而不是实际的外交政策愿望。
It is a little bit like the way Texans are about Texas, Hungarians are about Hungary.
这有点像德克萨斯人对德克萨斯的看法，匈牙利人对匈牙利的看法。
But I’m not sure we should read that totally literally.
但我不确定我们是否应该完全按字面意思来阅读。
All the study of Eastern Europe, all the time that you spent there — Greater Poland, earlier Greater Lithuania, maybe Greater Serbia, Greater Albania, Greater Hungary: How has it shaped your view of just human nature, flat out?
所有对东欧的研究，你在那里度过的所有时间 —— 大波兰，早期的大立陶宛，也许是大塞尔维亚，大阿尔巴尼亚，大匈牙利：它是如何塑造你对人性的看法的？
Is it that you think, “Well, what I see in Eastern Europe is a bit of an outlier,” or do you actually start seeing the rest of the world more in those terms?
您是否认为“嗯，我在东欧看到的情况有点异常”，或者您实际上开始更多地从这些角度看待世界其他地方？
How has it shaped your general views of humanity?
它如何塑造了你对人性的总体看法？
If I can give you a little longer answer: It has shaped a view of humanity, but the part that has the most isn’t the kind of petty — I think a little bit petty — national aspirations.
如果我可以给你长一点的答案的话：它塑造了一种人性观，但最多的部分不是那种小气——我觉得有点小气——民族愿望。
It’s not Lithuanian dreams of getting a little bit of Poland back or Hungarian dreams of getting the Bačka back.
这不是立陶宛人的梦想是夺回一点波兰，也不是匈牙利人的梦想是夺回巴奇卡。
The part that’s really struck me deeply is the Holocaust.
真正让我印象深刻的部分是大屠杀。
My family, a lot of them went through the Holocaust in Poland.
我的家人，他们中的很多人都经历过波兰的大屠杀。
And studying the German occupation of especially Poland, where the Jews were so much, and the process — what happened there after the ghetto clearances, after ’41: I think that there’s a real message about human nature there.
研究德国对波兰的占领，尤其是波兰，那里有很多犹太人，以及这个过程——41 年之后，犹太人区清理之后那里发生的事情：我认为那里存在着关于人性的真实信息。
Sometimes it’s — people who talk about that will talk about, “Well, this is a Polish-Jewish thing.
有时，谈论这个问题的人会谈论，“嗯，这是波兰犹太人的事情。
This is about anti-Semitism.” I think there’s actually something deeper.
这是关于反犹太主义的。”我认为实际上还有更深层次的东西。
There are three phases to the Holocaust in Poland.
波兰的大屠杀分为三个阶段。
There’s an early phase of people are being rounded up and put into ghettos.
在早期阶段，人们被围捕并投入贫民窟。
Then, in 1941, the Germans invade the Soviet Union and a few months there’s Operation Barbarossa and a few months later they start clearing the ghettos out.
然后，1941 年，德国人入侵苏联，几个月后实施了巴巴罗萨行动，几个月后他们开始清理贫民窟。
They start the real process of eliminating Poland’s Jews and outright shooting people as they’re invading and rounding people up, taking them from ghettos to concentration camps where they’re gassed and killed.
他们开始了消灭波兰犹太人的真正过程，并在入侵和围捕人们时彻底枪杀人们，将他们从贫民窟带到集中营，在那里他们被毒气杀害。
Then there’s this period — so that’s when most of the actual murder and death happens.
然后就是这个时期 ——所以大多数实际的谋杀和死亡都发生在这个时期。
Then, from late 1941 to early 1945, there’s a small group of survivors in Poland, Polish Jews, who are in peril from all sides, have no legal standing, are nonpersons, can be hunted by anyone, can be killed by anyone, and have to find a way to survive in a true Hobbesian world and where food is becoming scarcer and scarcer, money is scarcer.
然后，从1941年底到1945年初，波兰有一小群幸存者，波兰犹太人，他们面临着来自四面八方的危险，没有合法地位，是非人，可以被任何人追捕，可以被任何人杀死，他们必须在一个真正的霍布斯世界中找到生存之道，在这个世界里，食物越来越稀缺，金钱也越来越稀缺。
Everything is scarce.
一切都是稀缺的。
In a real world of poverty.
在一个贫穷的现实世界里。
Because they’re surviving, usually, in —
因为他们通常是在——
Some people have false papers and can survive anywhere, hopefully, as long as they’re not denounced.
有些人持有假证件，只要不被揭发，就能在任何地方生存，希望如此。
Some people have a lot of money and use that for themselves.
有些人有很多钱，并将其用于自己。
But the ones who escaped from the ghetto or ran away from transports or were otherwise just out at sea in Poland have to usually make a bargain with somebody.
但那些逃离贫民窟或逃离交通工具或刚刚在波兰出海的人通常必须与某人讨价还价。
Have to find someone they can trade whatever they have, whatever money they have, whatever they can promise for shelter — and they do.
必须找到一个人，他们可以用他们拥有的任何东西进行交易，无论他们有什么钱，无论他们可以承诺提供庇护——他们确实做到了。
A lot of people did that.
很多人都这么做了。
It’s hard to know exactly how many, but a lot of people did that in ’42.
很难确切知道有多少人，但 42 年很多人都这么做了。
Then the war goes on and on and on, much longer than people expected: ’42, ’43, ’44.
然后战争持续不断，比人们预期的时间要长得多：’42、’43、’44。
Winter after winter, things getting harder and harder.
一个冬天又一个冬天，事情变得越来越艰难。
The longer that runs, the more this becomes a real experiment in human nature.
运行的时间越长，这就越成为对人性的真正实验。
Who survives and who doesn’t?
谁能活下来，谁不能？
Who is denounced and who doesn’t?
谁受到谴责，谁没有受到谴责？
I had family members who actually survived this way, miraculously, but some didn’t.
我的一些家人实际上奇迹般地活了下来，但有些人却没有。
In the short run, a lot of people will make that bargain and be like, “I’ll take your money, and I’ll put you up.
从短期来看，很多人会讨价还价，然后说：“我会拿走你的钱，然后我会给你安排。
I’ll put you in my cellar.
我会把你放在我的地窖里。
I’ll hide you in a room for a few months, for a year, for two years.” But the longer that goes, the riskier it becomes and the harder it becomes and the more there’s the temptation to say, “Actually, I’m going to give you up.
我会把你藏在一个房间里几个月、一年、两年。”但时间越长，风险就越大，难度就越大，就越有可能说：“实际上，我要放弃你了。
My neighbors can see this.
我的邻居可以看到这一点。
I can’t go on with this.
我不能再这样下去了。
I need the money.
我需要钱。
I’m too scared.
我太害怕了。
Doesn’t seem like a point.
看来不是重点。
Everyone’s dead.” If the war had been shorter, a lot more people would have been saved.
每个人都死了。”如果战争时间缩短一些，就能拯救更多的人。
The longer the war runs, the more people are either denounced by their neighbors or their own protectors denounce them.
战争持续的时间越长，就会有越多的人要么受到邻居的谴责，要么受到自己的保护者的谴责。
But the ones who are saved, in the long run: this is where the human nature comes in, what’s so interesting, is the —
但得救的人，从长远来看：这就是人性发挥作用的地方，有趣的是 ——
How do you know who to trust?
你怎么知道该信任谁？
The people who end up protecting the people they protect the longest, hold out the longest, hold out to the end, are usually people who live on the absolute margins: widows, outcasts, people with no money, people in terrible shape, people whose lives would be transformed by having an iron stove or a pair of pants.
最终保护他们保护得最久、坚持得最久、坚持到最后的人，通常是那些生活在绝对边缘的人：寡妇、被遗弃者、没有钱的人、身体状况不佳的人、那些拥有一个铁炉子或一条裤子就能改变生活的人。
But if you were to take that when you were hiding Jews, and you were to take their money and buy something like that, immediately all your neighbors would know what you’re doing, because every village is 100 eyes watching everybody else.
但如果你在隐藏犹太人时采取这种做法，并且拿了他们的钱买类似的东西，那么你所有的邻居都会立即知道你在做什么，因为每个村庄都有 100 只眼睛注视着其他人。
You make one move, you make one change, you buy a tin roof: everyone knows what you’re doing.
你迈出了一步，你做了一个改变，你买了一个铁皮屋顶：每个人都知道你在做什么。
Everyone knows you’re hiding a Jew.
每个人都知道你藏匿了一个犹太人。
The people who were the best at saving the people they saved tended to be people who never made a bargain, who never asked for money, who just did it out of moral instinct.
最擅长拯救他们所拯救的人的人往往是那些从不讨价还价的人，从不索要金钱，只是出于道德本能而这样做的人。
Because if you buy a life, you can sell it.
因为如果你买了一条生命，你就可以卖掉它。
The people who didn’t enter into that transaction, they held fast the strongest.
那些没有参与交易的人，他们坚持得最坚强。
But how would you know that?
但你怎么知道呢？
Because just as possible, those people kind of on the margins, they can denounce someone for a tiny reward: for a bottle of vodka, for a kilo of sugar.
因为尽可能地，那些处于边缘的人，他们可以谴责某人以获得微小的奖励：一瓶伏特加，一公斤糖。
Those are some of the rewards that people gave for Jews.
这些是人们给予犹太人的一些奖励。
If you were to ask them beforehand, “How would you act in this situation?
如果你事先问他们：“在这种情况下你会怎么做？
What would you do?” I don’t think they’d have any idea what they would do.
你会怎么做？我认为他们不知道自己会做什么。
I don’t think they could predict themselves how they would act.
我认为他们无法预测自己会如何行动。
That’s where you get at the human mystery.
这就是你了解人类奥秘的地方。
I think you don’t know: Some people have that moral instinct.
我想你不知道：有些人有这种道德本能。
Some people will do it out of an innate feeling, but most won’t.
有些人会出于与生俱来的感觉而这样做，但大多数人不会。
To me, that means human nature is in some ways completely plastic, has no bottom, has no backside.
对我来说，这意味着人性在某些方面是完全可塑的，没有底线，没有背面。
Most people in the right situation — in the wrong situation, the worst situation — will act in any way, behave in any way.
大多数人在正确的情况下——在错误的情况下，最糟糕的情况下——都会以任何方式行事，以任何方式行事。
I think there’s almost no bottom to human behavior.
我认为人类的行为几乎没有底线。
The flip side of that is, in the worst situation, some people will act in the most remarkable way, in the best way.
另一方面是，在最糟糕的情况下，有些人会以最非凡、最好的方式行事。
There’s kind of no way to know.
没有办法知道。
To me, although I’m not primarily a historian of the Holocaust, that’s the lesson I take away.
对我来说，虽然我主要不是大屠杀的历史学家，但这就是我学到的教训。
I’m sorry for a very long answer.
很抱歉回答很长。
No, that’s great.
不，那太好了。
Given all your study of Eastern Europe, what is it you feel you understand about the current war in Ukraine that maybe other well-informed people would not?
鉴于您对东欧的所有研究，您认为您对当前乌克兰战争的哪些了解是其他消息灵通的人可能不了解的？
What do I understand about the war in Ukraine?
我对乌克兰战争有何了解？
I’ll tell you what: that what Ukraine is has shifted over time and is continuing to shift.
我会告诉你：乌克兰的本质已经随着时间的推移而发生了变化，而且还在继续变化。
I think people who look at this war and started being aware of it in 2022 — Ukraine is just a natural fact.
我认为那些关注这场战争并在 2022 年开始意识到它的人 —— 乌克兰只是一个自然的事实。
They weren’t necessarily sure what it is or where it comes from.
他们不一定确定它是什么或它来自哪里。
I think there is such a complicated story there of Ukraine between Poland and especially Russia of being entangled with both of those and creating itself in relation and against both of those.
我认为乌克兰在波兰和特别是俄罗斯之间存在着一个如此复杂的故事，它与这两个国家纠缠在一起，并与这两个国家建立联系并与之对抗。
It’s kind of a tangled family tree, and seeing how the pendulum has shifted even in a couple of years in the relationships between those three countries, where it was actually historically very tense between Poland and Ukraine, and the Polish government, which was always looking for something in the past — like a old wound to come back and celebrate and show off about.
这是一个错综复杂的家谱，看看这三个国家之间的关系如何在几年内发生了变化，波兰和乌克兰之间实际上历史上非常紧张，而波兰政府总是在寻找过去的东西——就像一个旧伤口可以回来庆祝和炫耀。
They were really showing off about — not celebrating, but commemorating the Polish-Ukrainian violence in World War II was a major thing, platform, of like, “Remember what the Ukrainians did to us.”
他们实际上是在炫耀——不是庆祝，而是纪念二战中波兰-乌克兰的暴力事件，这是一件大事，一个平台，比如“记住乌克兰人对我们做了什么”。
In a flash, it’s switched to “Poles and Ukrainians: brothers,” because of the big enemy.
转眼间，由于有大敌人，它变成了“波兰人和乌克兰人：兄弟”。
There’s more to that.
还有更多。
Growing up — I don’t know, Khmelnytsky and who he is to Ukrainians and Poles — that these are entangled stories.
成长过程中——我不知道赫梅利尼茨基，也不知道他对乌克兰人和波兰人来说是谁——这些都是错综复杂的故事。
But do I actually understand the course of the war better?
但我真的能更好地了解战争的进程吗？
And do I have a prediction for it?
我对此有预测吗？
And did I understand it better when it started?
当它开始时我是否更好地理解它？
Probably not.
可能不会。
I feel like I understand some of the roots, and the roots don’t predict that well.
我觉得我理解了一些根源，但根源并不能很好地预测。
So maybe I don’t have that much insight looking forward.
所以也许我对未来没有太多的洞察力。
In Eastern Europe, sexual dimorphism, maybe especially in parts of the Balkans, is it likely to go up or down?
在东欧，性别二态性，尤其是在巴尔干半岛的部分地区，可能会上升还是下降？
So a lot of men, they at least put on an air.
所以很多男人，至少摆出一副架子。
There’s some kind of manly man, and they work out, they lift weights, they have muscles.
有一些有男子气概的男人，他们锻炼身体，举重，有肌肉。
Women: there’s a particular set of roles.
女性：有一组特定的角色。
And Putin in particular, but many other leaders there, like to attack the West for confusing the roles of men and women.
尤其是普京，但那里的许多其他领导人喜欢攻击西方混淆了男性和女性的角色。
Is that going to intensify in the East?
东方的这种情况会加剧吗？
Or that’s just going to go away as per capita income rises, and they’ll feminize, too?
或者随着人均收入的增加，这种情况就会消失，而且女性化也会增加？
Well, they haven’t started yet.
好吧，他们还没有开始。
The Balkan male ethic is alive and well, at least to this observer — and they’re also just gigantic people down in former Yugoslavia.
巴尔干的男性伦理仍然存在且完好，至少对于这位观察者来说是这样——而且他们也只是前南斯拉夫的巨大民族。
Maybe Greece would be the place to track?
也许希腊会成为追踪的地方？
I don’t think Greek men have followed some kind of postmodern, Houellebecqian course.
我不认为希腊人遵循某种后现代的维勒贝克式的路线。
I think we’re a long way off from losing the Balkan male, as is a natural species.
我认为我们离失去巴尔干雄性还有很长的路要走，就像一个自然物种一样。
I think we can improve the economy a lot, and that male culture, that ethos, is going to be around for a while.
我认为我们可以大大改善经济，而男性文化、这种精神将会存在一段时间。
I don’t think they have anything to worry about.
我认为他们没有什么可担心的。
Last two questions.
最后两个问题。
First, an educated American comes to you and says, “Jacob, design for me a two-week vacation in Eastern Europe, but forget about Budapest and Prague.” They’ve already been there.
首先，一个受过教育的美国人来找你说：“雅各布，为我设计一个去东欧两周的假期，但忘记布达佩斯和布拉格吧。”他们已经去过那里了。
They’re not going to go, or they want to go anyway.
他们不会去，或者无论如何他们都想去。
For two weeks, where do you send them?
两周了，你把它们送到哪里？
What’s the itinerary?
行程是什么？
I’m going to ask one — is war a concern?
我要问一个问题：战争是一个问题吗？
Is Ukraine on the table or off the table?
乌克兰是在谈判桌上还是在谈判桌上？
Not going to go to Ukraine, whether they should or not, right?
不会去乌克兰，无论他们应该还是不应该，对吗？
That’s a shame.
太遗憾了。
And Budapest is off the table .
布达佩斯也不在考虑之列。
.
。
.
。
so I, selfishly, will start you in Warsaw, because I love Warsaw and I’m a Varsovian.
所以我自私地从华沙开始你们，因为我爱华沙，而且我是华沙人。
Warsaw is derided, but actually one of Eastern Europe’s most interesting cities.
华沙虽然受到嘲笑，但实际上是东欧最有趣的城市之一。
You get that history.
你得到了那段历史。
The architecture’s not great, but the history’s right there under the surface, if you know what you’re looking for.
建筑不是很好，但历史就在表面之下，如果你知道你在寻找什么的话。
Good airport, too.
机场也不错。
Then I would send you south down to the mountains.
然后我会送你去南方的山里。
You can skip Kraków on the same basis, as overtouristed (although it’s wonderful) as Prague and Budapest.
同样，您也可以跳过克拉科夫，因为克拉科夫和布拉格和布达佩斯一样游客过多（尽管它很精彩）。
Go down to Przemyśl near the Ukrainian border and get a sense of that old Hapsburg infrastructure and get a whiff of that, that you’re right on the border of Ukraine.
前往乌克兰边境附近的普热梅希尔，感受一下古老的哈布斯堡王朝的基础设施，闻一闻，你就在乌克兰边境。
You’re right on the border of Ukrainian influence, and you’re in that old Eastern Orthodox part of Poland, which used to be.
你就在乌克兰影响力的边界上，而且你在波兰古老的东正教地区，那里曾经是。
You can go to Szreniawa, too, and the wonderful museums there.
您也可以前往斯雷尼亚瓦（Szreniawa）以及那里精彩的博物馆。
Then down through eastern Slovakia, the kind of Ruthenian Slovakia (the parts of these Catholic countries that are Eastern Orthodox), and into northern Romania.
然后穿过斯洛伐克东部，即鲁塞尼亚斯洛伐克（这些天主教国家的东正教部分），进入罗马尼亚北部。
Northern Romania is the best place to see traditional Eastern Europe.
罗马尼亚北部是观赏传统东欧的最佳地点。
To see the world of haymaking and hand-built houses and the land of hay and wood.
参观干草和手工建造的房屋的世界以及干草和木材的土地。
Maramureș is my favorite area.
马拉穆列什是我最喜欢的地区。
Maramureș is kind of proverbially poor, northernmost half of Romania.
马拉穆列什是罗马尼亚最北半部众所周知的贫困地区。
Go to — there’s a village I love called Breb, but the whole valley — Ieud — is one of the most lasting, traditional parts of Eastern Europe.
去 ——有一个我喜欢的村庄，叫布雷布，但整个山谷 —— Ieud ——是东欧最持久、最传统的地区之一。
You can get a taste of what things might have been like certainly 30 years ago, 100 years ago.
你可以体验一下 30 年前、100 年前的情况。
Are we too late then — maybe down to Bucharest?
那么我们是不是太晚了 —— 也许可以去布加勒斯特？
You have a few more days left, yes.
你还有几天时间，是的。
Pick another place or two.
选择另外一两个地方。
We have a few more days left.
我们还有几天时间。
Let’s go around Transylvania, which is beautiful and has plenty of great places to stay.
让我们去特兰西瓦尼亚转转吧，那里很美丽，而且有很多很棒的住宿地点。
Like Sibiu?
像锡比乌一样？
Sibiu’s great, but I like — actually, outside, in Cluj is interesting, but Viscri, Biertan — these places that used to be German have these fortified churches, and usually there’s a cool Hungarian nobleman’s house that you can stay in.
锡比乌很棒，但我喜欢——事实上，在外面，在克卢日很有趣，但是维斯克里、别尔坦——这些曾经是德国人的地方有这些坚固的教堂，通常还有很酷的匈牙利贵族房子可以住。
Prince Charles loves this area and has these refurbished castles that he owns or manor houses that you can stay in, and it’s really neat.
查尔斯王子喜欢这个地区，他拥有这些经过翻新的城堡或庄园可供您入住，而且非常整洁。
Transylvania’s also one of the most culturally diverse places in Eastern Europe, and you have real Roma life.
特兰西瓦尼亚也是东欧文化最多元化的地方之一，这里有真正的罗姆人生活。
A lot of the formerly German towns are now mostly inhabited by Gábor Roma, Seventh-Day Adventist Roma.
许多以前的德国城镇现在主要居住着加博尔罗姆人，即基督复临安息日会罗姆人。
It’s pretty neat.
非常整洁。
Then you can go down to Bucharest.
然后您可以前往布加勒斯特。
No!
不！
You know what?
你知道吗？
I’m going to call an audible.
我要拨打有声电话。
If you can, if we can get across the border, let’s go to Belgrade and go to one of those houseboats and have some great risotto (I have a place), some great meat burek, and party on a houseboat, on a raft on the Danube.
如果可以的话，如果我们能越过边境，让我们去贝尔格莱德，去其中一艘船屋，吃一些美味的意大利调味饭（我有地方），一些美味的肉burek，并在多瑙河上的木筏上的船屋上聚会。
We can finish there.
我们可以在那里结束。
That’s great.
那太棒了。
Very last question.
最后一个问题。
Just to repeat, though, to everyone: Jacob’s book, Goodbye, Eastern Europe: An Intimate History of a Divided Land.
不过，我要向大家重复一遍：雅各布的书《再见，东欧：一部分裂土地的亲密历史》。
I’m a big fan of this book; one of my favorite of this year.
我是这本书的忠实粉丝；今年我最喜欢的之一。
But, finally, what will you do next?
但最后，你接下来要做什么？
I’m going to file my dissertation after an ungodly amount of time.
我要在一段不合时宜的时间后提交我的论文。
In between writing the book, I went back to it, dumped most of it, rewrote it, and took on a different topic.
在写这本书的间隙，我又回顾了一遍，抛弃了大部分内容，重写了它，并开始了不同的主题。
And it’s done, and I can file it probably this month.
已经完成了，我可能这个月就可以提交。
What’s that on?
那是什么？
It’s on Ketman: this idea from The Captive Mind, by Czesław Miłosz, of ideological masquerade or disguise, that he took from — it’s a concept in Shiite Islamic practice that he read about, where Shiites, under duress, under Sunni rule, would pretend to be Sunni and had an obligation, religiously, to do that under the Abbasids.
这是关于凯特曼的：切斯瓦夫·米沃什（Czeslaw Miłosz）的《被囚禁的心灵》中的这个关于意识形态假面舞会或伪装的想法，是他读到的什叶派伊斯兰实践中的一个概念，在逊尼派统治下，什叶派在胁迫下假装自己是逊尼派，并且在阿拔斯王朝统治下有宗教义务这样做。
Then he’s like, “That’s what life is like under Stalinism.
然后他说，“这就是斯大林主义下的生活。
That’s what my peers were all doing.” They’re practicing Ketman.
这就是我的同龄人都在做的事情。”他们正在练习凯特曼。
They’re splitting themselves into an inner self that believes in some older, prewar ideal of Catholicism or art for art’s sake or regular science, and there’s an outward face that is doctrinairely Marxist or doctrinairely Soviet or something.
他们将自己分裂成一个内在的自我，相信一些古老的、战前的天主教理想，或者为艺术而艺术或常规科学，而外在的面孔是教条主义的马克思主义或教条主义的苏联之类的。
And how he came up with that, the dialogues he had with some of his peers — especially one very interesting philosopher — and then how that was received in Poland: what people actually thought about it when they read about this, this guy who defected.
他是如何想出这个想法的，他与一些同行的对话——尤其是一位非常有趣的哲学家——以及波兰人如何接受这个想法：当人们读到这个叛逃者的消息时，他们实际上是怎么想的。
It’s like, did that really happen or did it not?
就像，这真的发生过还是没有发生？
Maybe I’ll do something with that, but I’ve got all the signatures ready; I’ve got to do some bibliography and it’s done.
也许我会对此做点什么，但我已经准备好了所有签名；我必须做一些参考书目，并且已经完成了。
Congratulations on that.
对此表示祝贺。
Jacob, thank you very much.
雅各布，非常感谢你。
Thank you so much, Tyler.
非常感谢你，泰勒。
It’s been a blast.
真是太棒了。