Gaurav Kapadia on New York City, Investing, and Contemporary Art (Ep. 264)
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today, I’m very pleased and honored to be speaking with Gaurav Kapadia.
今天，我非常高兴也很荣幸能与高拉夫·卡帕迪亚 (Gaurav Kapadia) 交谈。
I was introducing Gaurav at another event not too long ago, and I think I said something like, he is the most underrated anonymous person I know of, or maybe I could have said, he is the most anonymous underrated person I know of.
不久前，我在另一场活动中介绍了高拉夫，我想我说了类似的话，他是我所知道的最被低估的匿名者，或者也许我可以说，他是我所知道的最被低估的匿名者。
He is a New Yorker and, has lived here most of his life.
他是纽约人，一生大部分时间都住在这里。
He runs an investment firm called XN.
他经营着一家名为 XN 的投资公司。
I described him recently to someone else as one of our generation’s Warren Buffets.
我最近向别人描述他是我们这一代的沃伦·巴菲特之一。
Gaurav has very much shied away from publicity, so we’re very happy to have him on our show.
高拉夫非常回避公开，所以我们很高兴他出现在我们的节目中。
You can think of him as a generational investor, but he does much more than that.
你可以把他视为一代投资者，但他所做的远不止于此。
He is intricately involved in the affairs of New York City.
他错综复杂地参与了纽约市的事务。
He is an avid collector of contemporary art.
他是一位热心的当代艺术收藏家。
He serves on the boards of trustees of the Mellon Foundation, the Whitney Museum of American Art, the Trust of Governors Island, the Institute for Constitutional Advocacy and Protection, and he’s a member of the Council on Foreign Relations.
他是梅隆基金会、惠特尼美国艺术博物馆、总督岛信托基金会、宪法倡导与保护研究所的董事会成员，也是外交关系委员会的成员。
In my introduction to that other event a while back, I think I also said that Gaurav is someone who is unique, that he has this eye for judging quality in a deep sense, that he can apply to cities, to hires, to artworks, and also to investments, and that breadth across the board is something quite remarkable about him.
在我不久前对另一场活动的介绍中，我想我也说过高拉夫是一个独特的人，他有这种从深层意义上判断质量的眼光，他可以应用于城市、招聘、艺术品，也可以应用于投资，而且他的全面广度是非常了不起的。
Gaurav, welcome.
高拉夫，欢迎。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
I am blushing.
我脸红了。
On Queens and NYC’s geography
关于皇后区和纽约市的地理
We’re going to get to you, but I always love hearing you talk about New York City because you think so clearly about it, and you know so much about it.
我们会联系你，但我总是喜欢听你谈论纽约市，因为你对它的思考如此清晰，而且你对它了解得如此之多。
You grew up in Flushing, Queens, right?
你在皇后区法拉盛长大，对吗？
I did.
我做到了。
A very simple question I have.
我有一个非常简单的问题。
As far as I can tell, Queens’ GDP has gone up a great amount since you were a kid, but there hasn’t been much new infrastructure.
据我所知，皇后区的GDP从小时候起就已经有了很大的增长，但没有太多新的基础设施。
Everyone’s telling us, “Infrastructure, infrastructure.” How has Queens done so well?
每个人都在告诉我们，“基础设施，基础设施。”皇后区为何表现如此出色？
I think one of the reasons Queens has done pretty well, first of all, it’s, obviously, New York has done very well.
我认为皇后区做得很好的原因之一，首先，显然纽约做得很好。
One of the very logical outgrowths is, people moved to the outer boroughs.
非常合乎逻辑的结果之一是，人们搬到了外围行政区。
While there’s not been a lot of new infrastructure, there has been a pretty decent amount of existing infrastructure.
虽然没有很多新的基础设施，但现有的基础设施数量相当可观。
The 7 train is obviously how you get to both the US Open and Shea Stadium.
7 路火车显然是您前往美国公开赛和谢伊体育场的方式。
It’s also the train I took to get to school every day.
这也是我每天去学校乘的火车。
Around transit hubs, you end up having a lot of development.
在交通枢纽周围，你最终会得到很大的发展。
Flushing is one of the closest cities in an outer borough to the center of Manhattan.
法拉盛是距离曼哈顿中心最近的外行政区城市之一。
That, I think, is a big part of its success.
我认为，这是其成功的一个重要部分。
Let’s say we make you dictator of Flushing.
假设我们让你成为法拉盛的独裁者。
What would you change to make it even better?
你会改变什么来让它变得更好？
I haven’t been to Flushing as much as I probably should since I left Flushing, but I think one of the most important things you can do everywhere in New York City is build more housing.
自从离开法拉盛以来，我去法拉盛的次数并不多，但我认为在纽约市的任何地方都可以做的最重要的事情之一就是建造更多的住房。
I think Flushing, in the periods where it grew very quickly, they added a lot of housing stock via buildings and tearing down old single-family homes that were past their prime.
我认为法拉盛在发展非常迅速的时期，他们通过建筑物增加了大量的住房存量，并拆除了已经过了鼎盛时期的旧单户住宅。
That has stalled, as it has everywhere, but I think increasing density would be the best thing to do.
这种情况已经停滞了，就像其他地方一样，但我认为增加密度将是最好的办法。
Those old Archie Bunker–style homes — they should mostly be gone, and we need to change the laws for that to happen?
那些古老的阿奇邦克风格的房屋 — 它们应该大部分消失，我们需要改变法律才能实现这一点？
Yes.
是的。
It’s funny.
这很有趣。
Actually, I grew up in one of those Archie Bunker-ish–style homes.
事实上，我是在阿奇地堡风格的房子里长大的。
My relation to New York City is pretty unique and pretty chaotic, as I like to say.
正如我喜欢说的，我与纽约市的关系非常独特，也非常混乱。
My parents — when they moved to America, they decided rather than pay rent, they would, what’s now called, house hack.
我的父母 ——当他们搬到美国时，他们决定不再支付房租，而是选择（现在所谓的）拆房。
They ended up buying a two-family home, very small.
他们最终买了一套两户人家的房子，非常小。
They lived in the basement, and they rented out the other two apartments.
他们住在地下室，另外两间公寓也出租了。
Over time, they turned that two-family home into a four-family home.
随着时间的推移，他们把两户住宅变成了四户住宅。
As my family gained more and more wealth, we moved up in the floors.
随着我的家人变得越来越富有，我们的楼层也搬了上去。
I think that’s a really interesting thing because you took something that was actually really zoned for two, basically four people, and actually 15 people were living in it.
我认为这是一件非常有趣的事情，因为你拍摄的东西实际上是为两个人（基本上是四个人）划分的，而实际上有 15 个人住在里面。
We saw that density firsthand.
我们亲眼目睹了这种密度。
Now, as someone who grew up in New Jersey, the borders of New York City have never made that much sense to me.
现在，作为在新泽西长大的人，纽约市的边界对我来说从来没有那么大的意义。
I look at Brooklyn — I think by some measures it might be, what, the fourth-largest city in the US, if it were alone.
我看看布鲁克林——我认为，从某些方面来看，如果单独考虑的话，它可能是美国第四大城市。
I look at Staten Island — it feels like it should belong to us, not to you.
我看着斯塔顿岛——感觉它应该属于我们，而不是你们。
I agree.
我同意。
How would you redo the borders?
你会如何重做边界？
I think the other thing that’s missing is, it’s an unnatural end from Long Island to Queens.
我认为缺少的另一件事是，从长岛到皇后区的结局不自然。
There’re no natural borders.
没有自然边界。
Now, on the flip side, I think, to some extent, New York City is much more logical than other cities, where they just have urban sprawl.
现在，另一方面，我认为，在某种程度上，纽约市比其他城市更合乎逻辑，因为其他城市只是城市扩张。
In Manhattan, you have the rivers on both sides.
在曼哈顿，两岸都是河流。
The five boroughs have a great deal of both identity but connectivity to one another, which is one of the reasons I think New York is amazing.
这五个行政区既有很强的个性，又相互联系，这是我认为纽约令人惊叹的原因之一。
Let me tell you another hypothesis, and I’m myself often torn.
让我告诉你另一个假设，我自己也经常陷入困境。
If you look at the ratio of largest cities in a country to the size of the country, New York is actually remarkably small, given that America —
如果你看看一个国家最大的城市与国家面积的比例，纽约实际上是非常小的，因为美国 ——
— is so big.
—— 太大了。
— is so big.
—— 太大了。
Whether it’s New York or LA, they’re both pretty small compared to, say, Vienna as a fraction of Austria, or pick almost any other country.
无论是纽约还是洛杉矶，与维也纳（例如奥地利的一小部分）或几乎任何其他国家相比，它们都相当小。
So should we be aiming for an outcome where New York City is just much bigger to meet this regular relationship?
那么，我们是否应该以纽约市变得更大来满足这种定期关系为目标？
Or are we optimally relatively small?
或者我们最好相对较小？
I think the best thing for America would be actually New York is smaller in proportion.
我认为对美国来说最好的事情实际上是纽约的比例较小。
Smaller in proportion.
比例较小。
Smaller in proportion.
比例较小。
And give away Brooklyn.
并放弃布鲁克林。
Make Brooklyn —
让布鲁克林 —
I wouldn’t say that.
我不会这么说。
I would say maybe strengthen the middle of the country, creating much more population density, higher GDP across America would serve all of America well.
我想说，也许加强美国中部的实力，创造更高的人口密度，提高整个美国的国内生产总值，这将对整个美国都有好处。
New York’s pretty crowded as it is.
纽约确实很拥挤。
Robert Moses — hero or villain, or both?
罗伯特·摩西——英雄还是恶棍，或者两者兼而有之？
Both.
两个都。
Where do you side on the debate?
你在这场辩论中站在哪一边？
What margin do you want to push people on, to like him more or like him less?
你希望人们在多大程度上更喜欢他或更少喜欢他？
Probably like him less.
可能比较不喜欢他了。
Why?
为什么？
Look, on one hand, it was a master class in wielding power, of course, power broker.
瞧，一方面，这是运用权力的大师班，当然是权力掮客。
There’re so many interesting things there, but the lack of due process as we go 50 years later, 100 years later, is starting to show in where infrastructure is built, ability to expand, et cetera.
那里有很多有趣的事情，但 50 年后、100 年后，我们开始在基础设施建设、扩展能力等方面开始表现出缺乏正当程序。
So, from that perspective, I think a balance would have been more appropriate.
所以，从这个角度来看，我认为平衡会更合适。
So, more due process.
因此，更多的正当程序。
Slightly more.
稍微多一点。
If we want to make it easier to redo Queens and we have more due process, aren’t those two things at odds against each other?
如果我们想让重做皇后区变得更容易，并且我们有更多的正当程序，那么这两件事不是相互矛盾的吗？
They are at odds at one another.
他们彼此不和。
I would say, though, having one person decide the taste for the whole city is also probably not the best use of time.
不过，我想说，让一个人决定整个城市的品味也可能不是时间的最佳利用方式。
Of course, it’s a balance between the two.
当然，这是两者之间的平衡。
As you know, one of my big focuses is reducing regulation, reducing administrative burden where it doesn’t make sense, but keeping it where it does make sense.
如您所知，我的重点之一是减少监管，减少无意义的行政负担，但将其保留在有意义的地方。
I think, as an example, parks and highway systems — having some thought as to where they go is very logical.
我认为，举个例子，公园和高速公路系统 ——对它们的去向进行一些思考是非常合乎逻辑的。
Now, sometimes I hear from my right-leaning New York City–skeptical friends that the city relies heavily, fiscally, on some quite small number of taxpayers.
现在，有时我从纽约市的右倾怀疑论朋友那里听到，该市在财政上严重依赖少数纳税人。
Sometimes the number 200 is cited, and that if some fraction of them left, everything would fall apart.
有时会引用200这个数字，如果他们中的一小部分离开，一切都会崩溃。
Is that true, not true?
这是真的，还是不是真的？
I think it is.
我认为是的。
Let’s take a big step back.
让我们退一步。
New York is amazing to me in many ways because it is the only major city, really, that I know of in America that’s not a company town.
纽约在很多方面对我来说都令人惊叹，因为它是我所知道的美国唯一一个不是公司城镇的主要城市。
Everyone thinks it’s their company town.
每个人都认为这是他们的公司城镇。
The financial elites think it’s their company town.
金融精英认为这是他们的公司城。
Artists think it’s their company town.
艺术家认为这是他们的公司城镇。
Musicians think it’s their company town.
音乐家认为这是他们的公司城镇。
Broadway actors think it’s their company town.
百老汇演员认为这是他们的公司城镇。
That, I think, is one of the great strengths of New York.
我认为，这是纽约的一大优势。
Now, as you point out, we have the highest number of high earners of any city in New York as well.
现在，正如您所指出的，我们的高收入者数量也是纽约所有城市中最多的。
Obviously, given how high the tax rates are, there’s a disproportionate impact on the city’s finances as people stay.
显然，考虑到税率如此之高，人们留下来会对城市的财政产生不成比例的影响。
I’ve heard, also, numbers like 200 and numbers like 400 or 1,000 people drive a vast preponderance of revenue.
我还听说过 200 人、400 人或 1,000 人这样的数字带来了巨大的收入。
I would say, though, that is actually better than some of these other cities that rely on just one or two people.
不过，我想说，这实际上比其他一些仅依赖一两个人的城市要好。
New Jersey, obviously, very famously, when David Tepper left, they ended up having a budget shortfall.
新泽西州显然是众所周知的，当大卫·泰珀离开时，他们最终出现了预算短缺。
I think Bentonville would probably have a problem if Walmart left.
我认为如果沃尔玛离开，本顿维尔可能会遇到问题。
While it is, of course, quite narrow, I think that the city has much more of a stable base than people realize.
当然，虽然它相当狭窄，但我认为这座城市的基础比人们想象的要稳定得多。
On New York City mayors and electoral politics
关于纽约市市长和选举政治
Who’s been the most underrated New York City mayor?
谁是最被低估的纽约市市长？
Mike Bloomberg by a country mile.
迈克·布隆伯格 (Mike Bloomberg) 领先一英里。
If you look at his popularity, it’s actually quite low, but the amount of impact that he’s had on the city is extremely high.
你看他的知名度其实很低，但是他对这座城市的影响却是非常大的。
I would say, in certain circles, he’s extremely highly rated.
我想说，在某些圈子里，他的评价非常高。
In popular imagination in New York, he has pretty low ratings, and that always has surprised me.
在纽约的大众想象中，他的收视率相当低，这总是让我感到惊讶。
Why is he not more popular?
为什么他没有更受欢迎？
I think people take for granted the long-term initiatives he put in place and assume they would have just shown up anyway, but it took a lot of hard work to get there.
我认为人们认为他所采取的长期举措是理所当然的，并认为无论如何他们都会出现，但实现这一目标需要付出很多努力。
Now, I don’t intend this as commentary on any particular individual, but what is it that could be done to attract a higher quality of candidate for being mayor of New York?
现在，我无意以此作为对任何特定个人的评论，但是可以采取什么措施来吸引更高质量的纽约市长候选人呢？
It’s a super important job.
这是一项非常重要的工作。
It’s one of the world’s greatest cities, arguably the greatest.
它是世界上最伟大的城市之一，可以说是最伟大的。
Why isn’t there more talent running after it?
为什么没有更多的人才追随它？
It is something that I’ve thought about a great deal.
这是我思考了很多的事情。
I think there’s a bunch of little things that accumulate, but the main thing that happens in New York City is, people automatically assume they can’t win because it’s such a big and great city.
我认为有很多小事情积累起来，但在纽约市发生的主要事情是，人们自然而然地认为他们无法获胜，因为这是一个如此大而伟大的城市。
Actually, the last few presidential elections and also the current mayoral election have taught people that anyone could win.
事实上，最近几届总统选举以及这次市长选举已经告诉人们，任何人都可以获胜。
I think that, in and of itself, is going to draw more candidates as we go forward.
我认为，随着我们的前进，这本身就会吸引更多的候选人。
What happened as an example, this time, people just assumed that one candidate had the race locked up, so a lot of good candidates, even that I know, decided not even to run.
举个例子，这一次，人们只是假设一位候选人已经锁定了竞选，所以很多优秀的候选人，即使是我知道的，也决定不参加竞选。
It turns out that that ended up not being the case at all.
事实证明，事实并非如此。
Now that people put that into their mental model, the new Bayesian analysis of that would be, “Oh, more people should run.”
既然人们将其纳入他们的心理模型，新的贝叶斯分析将是，“哦，更多的人应该跑步。”
The second thing: New York has a bunch of very peculiar dynamics.
第二件事：纽约有很多非常奇特的动态。
It’s an off-year election, and the primaries are at very awkward times.
今年是年末选举，初选正处于非常尴尬的时期。
I believe there’s a history of why the primary shifted to basically the third week of June, in which there’s a very low turnout.
我相信初选基本上转移到六月的第三周是有历史的，当时投票率非常低。
The third week of June in New York City, when the private schools are out and an off-year election.
纽约市六月的第三周，私立学校停课，并举行休年选举。
You’re able to win the Democratic nomination and therefore the mayoral election with tens of thousands of votes in a city this big.
你能够赢得民主党提名，从而在这么大的城市里赢得数万张选票的市长选举。
That is absolutely insane.
这绝对是疯了。
A couple of things that I would probably do would be to make the primary more normal, change the election timing to make it on-cycle, even number of years.
我可能会做的几件事是让初选更加正常，改变选举时间，使其保持周期，甚至是几年。
You’d have to figure out how to do that.
你必须弄清楚如何做到这一点。
Potentially have an open primary as well.
也可能有一个开放的初选。
If we apply the Gaurav Kapadia judgment algorithm to mayoral candidates, what’s the non-obvious quality you’re looking for?
如果我们将 Gaurav Kapadia 判断算法应用于市长候选人，您正在寻找的非显而易见的品质是什么？
Optimism.
乐观。
Optimism.
乐观。
Optimism.
乐观。
Is it scarce?
稀缺吗？
Extraordinarily scarce.
异常稀缺。
I think there’s much more doomerism everywhere than optimism.
我认为世界各地的悲观主义远多于乐观主义。
At the end of the day, people are attracted to optimism.
归根结底，人们会被乐观情绪所吸引。
If you think about the machinery of the city and the state, having a clear plan — of course, you need all the basics.
如果你考虑城市和国家的机器，有一个清晰的计划 ——当然，你需要所有的基础知识。
You need to be able to govern.
你需要有能力治理。
It’s a very complicated city.
这是一个非常复杂的城市。
There’re many constituents.
选民有很多。
But I think beyond that, you have to have the ability to inspire.
但我认为除此之外，你还必须有激发灵感的能力。
For some reason, almost all of the candidates, over the last couple of cycles, have really not had that — with the exception of probably one — the ability to inspire.
出于某种原因，在过去的几个周期中，几乎所有的候选人实际上都没有那种“——可能除了一个”之外——激励的能力。
I think that is the most underrated quality that one will need.
我认为这是一个人所需要的最被低估的品质。
I have my own answer to this question, but I’m curious to see what you say.
我对这个问题有自己的答案，但我很好奇你说的是什么。
What is, for you, the weirdest part of New York City that you know of that doesn’t really feel like it belongs to New York City at all?
对您来说，您所知道的纽约市最奇怪的地方是什么？它根本不属于纽约市？
The weirdest part?
最奇怪的部分？
It depends on how you embrace and define New York.
这取决于你如何拥抱和定义纽约。
I embrace it and define it as super weird from time to time, so I think everything belongs.
我拥抱它，并时不时将其定义为超级奇怪，所以我认为一切都属于。
I don’t have a “Bay Ridge doesn’t belong,” or “Gowanus doesn’t belong,” or “Staten Island doesn’t belong,” in that way.
我没有那种“湾岭不属于”、“戈瓦努斯不属于”或“斯塔顿岛不属于”的说法。
I think it’s all part of the same soup.
我认为它们都是同一汤的一部分。
City Island — to me, it feels like New England.
城市岛——对我来说，感觉就像新英格兰。
People don’t go there.
人们不去那里。
It’s formally part of the Bronx, but it’s past the Bronx.
它在形式上是布朗克斯的一部分，但它已经超越了布朗克斯。
It’s almost vaguely maritime.
它几乎是模糊的海洋。
I would agree with that.
我同意这一点。
I don’t spend a lot of time in City Island, but I think that’s a totally sensible perspective.
我在城市岛待的时间不多，但我认为这是一个完全明智的观点。
I thought I was in New Bedford or something.
我以为我是在新贝德福德什么的。
I can see that.
我看得出来。
Most underrated part of New York City?
纽约市最被低估的地区？
The most underrated part of New York City is the Bronx.
纽约市最被低估的地区是布朗克斯区。
I think people think about it for Yankees games outside of the Bronx, but there’s a huge cultural identity.
我认为人们会考虑布朗克斯以外的洋基队比赛，但其中存在巨大的文化认同。
There’s great cuisine.
这里有很棒的美食。
I think the whole borough of the Bronx is super underrated.
我认为整个布朗克斯区都被严重低估了。
A lot of music has come from there, right?
很多音乐都来自那里，对吗？
For sure.
一定。
On building a career in investing
关于建立投资职业生涯
Now we’re sitting here at your investment company, XN.
现在我们坐在你们的投资公司XN这里。
I have quite a few questions about investing and about you.
我有很多关于投资和你的问题。
Just to start, how good an investor were you at age 23?
首先，您在 23 岁时作为一名投资者有多优秀？
I thought I was way better than I was.
我以为我比以前好多了。
I started my investment career when I was 23 years old, but I have had the passion and DNA of an investor since I was probably 9, 10, 11, 12 years old.
我23岁就开始了投资生涯，但大概从9岁、10岁、11岁、12岁起，我就已经拥有了投资者的热情和DNA。
I mentioned my parents, and I grew up in a two-family house that became a four-family house.
我提到了我的父母，我在一个两户的房子里长大，后来变成了一个四户的房子。
I actually became the de facto landlord, collecting rent checks, negotiating late payments, all this other stuff, very early — 10, 11, 12 years old.
事实上，我很早就成为了事实上的房东，收取租金支票，协商逾期付款，所有这些其他事情，很早——10岁、11岁、12岁。
With the people renting?
和租房子的人一起？
With the people renting in the homes.
与租房子的人们一起。
You really have a great sense of humanity when you are a landlord in Queens in transition.
当你是皇后区转型期的房东时，你真的很有人性。
I also very quickly had both an entrepreneurial instinct and a curiosity and analytical instinct.
我也很快就拥有了创业本能、好奇心和分析本能。
When I was 23, obviously, I didn’t know anything, but I thought I knew enough.
当我23岁的时候，显然我什么都不知道，但我认为我知道得足够多了。
The great thing I had was a combination of hard work and enthusiasm and knowledge, but also mentors who would constrain that quality in me and make sure it channels in the right way.
我所拥有的最伟大的事情是努力工作、热情和知识的结合，但也有导师会限制我的这种品质并确保它以正确的方式传导。
You were very wise in picking mentors.
您在挑选导师方面非常明智。
That was a big advantage you had?
这是你的一大优势吗？
I think I was very lucky that the mentors picked me.
我觉得我很幸运，导师们选择了我。
But that’s endogenous, right?
但这是内生的，对吗？
The mentors see something in you, and you do something for the mentors to see that.
导师在你身上看到了一些东西，你做了一些事情让导师看到了这一点。
What was your key insight in how to get these very good mentors?
对于如何获得这些非常优秀的导师，您的主要见解是什么？
One, by nature, I’m an extremely curious person.
第一，本质上，我是一个非常好奇的人。
That actually attracts a certain type of person who really likes engaging in curiosity.
这实际上吸引了某些真正喜欢好奇心的人。
It happens to, I think, attract great mentorship as well.
我认为，它也恰好吸引了很好的指导。
If you’re deeply engaged and always want to know more and pull the thread, people have a reason to engage with you.
如果你深入参与并且总是想了解更多并拉动线索，那么人们就有理由与你互动。
So, that is an interesting thing.
所以，这是一件有趣的事情。
I think both on mentors and mentees and peers has been a significant quality.
我认为对于导师、受训者和同伴来说都是一种重要的品质。
I think I have a passion for a lot of things, but especially investing, that really does come through when people spend time with me.
我认为我对很多事情都充满热情，尤其是投资，当人们花时间和我在一起时，这种热情确实会实现。
It’s not like I could have been a doctoral candidate, a management consultant.
我不可能成为一名博士生、一名管理顾问。
I think it’s pretty clear that being an investor is a very logical outcome, and people are attracted to that.
我认为很明显，成为一名投资者是一个非常合乎逻辑的结果，人们对此很感兴趣。
You were in Boston Consulting Group for a little while, right?
您在波士顿咨询集团工作了一段时间，对吗？
Right.
正确的。
That was frustrating?
那很令人沮丧吗？
There’s an important reason I was in Boston Consulting Group, which probably a lot of people don’t know.
我加入波士顿咨询集团有一个重要原因，可能很多人都不知道。
I studied finance at Wharton because I knew I wanted to be an investor when I was 15.
我在沃顿商学院学习金融，因为我 15 岁时就知道自己想成为一名投资者。
Then I said, “Well, what’s the best place to go?
然后我说：“那么，哪里是最好的去处？
The best place to go was Wharton.
最好的去处是沃顿商学院。
I applied early, went there, and actually had a wide variety of experiences through my college career.
我很早就申请了，去了那里，并且在我的大学生涯中实际上获得了各种各样的经历。
I worked at the State Department on economic sanctions policy, of all things.
我在国务院工作，主要负责经济制裁政策。
Still have my security clearance.
仍然有我的安全许可。
I worked at an investment bank.
我在一家投资银行工作。
At the end of that period, I interviewed at a bunch of places.
在那段时间结束时，我采访了很多地方。
I was lucky enough to get offers from Goldman, Blackstone, and BCG.
我很幸运得到了高盛、黑石和 BCG 的报价。
After thinking about it for a long time, I made a decision that basically no Wharton student would have made at that time — to go work at BCG.
想了很久，我做出了一个当时基本上没有沃顿商学院学生都不会做的决定——去 BCG 工作。
They paid one-third the amount of money, but there’re a couple of reasons why.
他们支付了三分之一的钱，但有几个原因。
One, I had a lot of finance experience through my college career and through my internships.
第一，我在大学生涯和实习中积累了丰富的金融经验。
I realized that I didn’t really know how the world worked or how businesses work in any reality.
我意识到我并不真正了解世界是如何运作的，也不知道现实中的企业是如何运作的。
So, I took it as a detour on purpose to learn more about how corporate environments work, how leadership functions, because I thought it would make me a better investor.
所以，我故意把它当作绕道去了解更多关于企业环境如何运作、领导力如何运作的知识，因为我认为这会让我成为更好的投资者。
Now, the funny thing is that I remember this almost like it was yesterday.
现在，有趣的是，我记得这件事几乎就像昨天一样。
The Goldman person — I called and said, “Hey, by the way, I’m going to go work at Boston Consulting Group.” He told me at that time, “You are making the worst mistake of your career.
高盛的人 —— 我打电话说：“嘿，顺便说一句，我要去波士顿咨询集团工作。”他当时告诉我：“你正在犯你职业生涯中最严重的错误。
I hope you remember this phone call,” which, of course, has been ironic.
我希望你记住这个电话，”这当然是具有讽刺意味的。
Then the BCG experience worked out incredibly well to some extent.
BCG 的经验在某种程度上取得了令人难以置信的良好效果。
So, you learned how things work.
所以，你了解了事情是如何运作的。
I learned how things work.
我了解了事情是如何运作的。
I learned how corporations work, which, if you’re an investor like me, it’s actually a really important thing because investors have this handicap where they just assume that what’s on a spreadsheet is how organizations work.
我了解了公司是如何运作的，如果你是像我一样的投资者，这实际上是一件非常重要的事情，因为投资者有这样的障碍，他们只是假设电子表格上的内容就是组织的运作方式。
That’s obviously not how organizations work.
这显然不是组织的运作方式。
There’s much more complicated dynamics around how to do that.
如何做到这一点还有更复杂的动态。
Now, of course, being a strategy consultant is not the same as being an executive.
当然，现在担任战略顾问与担任高管不同。
It just gave me a slightly different lens, which I believe actually ended up accelerating my competitive advantage early in my investing career.
它只是给了我一个稍微不同的视角，我相信这实际上最终加速了我在投资生涯早期的竞争优势。
That’s when you met Rishi Sunak?
就在那时你遇到了Rishi Sunak？
You worked with him?
你和他一起工作过吗？
We didn’t work together, but I think it’s one of these interesting things.
我们没有一起工作，但我认为这是有趣的事情之一。
Both Rishi and I were analysts roughly at the same level at two different firms that were very interesting and long-term focused.
Rishi 和我都是两家不同公司的分析师，级别大致相同，这两家公司都非常有趣且专注于长期发展。
Rishi and I became close through that interaction of looking at the same companies.
通过考察同一家公司的互动，Rishi 和我变得更加亲密。
In that case, back in ’05, ’06, we were both heavily involved in the railroad industry in the first railroad renaissance.
在这种情况下，早在 05 年、06 年，我们都在第一次铁路复兴中大量参与了铁路行业。
We ended up spending so much time at rail yards and meeting the management teams of these companies.
我们最终在铁路站花了很多时间并与这些公司的管理团队会面。
Then, as I like to say, he made something of himself.
然后，正如我想说的，他成就了自己。
On XN’s investment philosophy
浅谈XN的投资理念
XN — a few years ago, I think you all reported you had only 21 investments.
XN ——几年前，我想你们都报告说自己只有 21 项投资。
The number is still close to that now?
现在这个数字还接近吗？
Yes.
是的。
XN is, I think, a phenomenal place and a weird place for that reason.
我认为 XN 是一个非凡的地方，因此也是一个奇怪的地方。
We do two things.
我们做两件事。
We do concentrated public-markets investing.
我们进行集中的公开市场投资。
It rhymes with what Buffett has done.
这与巴菲特所做的事情押韵。
Then we do, I would say, opportunistic, best-in-class private investing.
然后，我想说，我们会进行机会主义的、一流的私人投资。
That’s about a third of our capital.
这大约是我们资本的三分之一。
On the public side, we rarely have more than 10 or 15 investments because there are very few good ideas, and so we concentrate capital on that.
在公共方面，我们的投资很少超过 10 或 15 个，因为好的想法很少，所以我们将资金集中在这方面。
That has always been a consistent.
这一直是一贯的。
There are sectors you won’t invest in because you don’t understand them?
有些行业你因为不了解而不会投资？
Yes.
是的。
My goal in everything — and this goes well beyond investing — is to be the best at what we do.
我在一切事情上的目标————这远远超出了投资————是在我们所做的事情上做到最好。
There’re a few things I just don’t think it would be possible for us to be the best at what we do.
有几件事我认为我们不可能在我们所做的事情上做到最好。
Healthcare, as a very broad statement, which is actually a huge percentage of the global GDP — we basically say there’s just no chance in the world that XN is going to be able to be the best healthcare investor in the world because of the combination of regulatory and scientific research that you need.
医疗保健，作为一个非常广泛的说法，实际上占全球 GDP 的很大一部分 ——我们基本上说，由于监管和科学研究相结合，XN 不可能成为世界上最好的医疗保健投资者。
So, we basically just exclude that.
所以，我们基本上只是排除这一点。
At a conceptual level, what makes a sector relatively transparent to you?
在概念层面上，是什么让一个行业对您来说相对透明？
Where you can use a combination of business analysis, logic, and valuation, and tie things together in a way that allows you to generate differentiated conclusions than what consensus would be.
您可以结合使用业务分析、逻辑和评估，并将事物结合在一起，从而得出不同于共识的结论。
Oftentimes, the thing I like to say about our investments is that they’re obvious in retrospect.
通常，关于我们的投资，我想说的是，回想起来，它们是显而易见的。
At the time, they’re really hard to make.
当时，它们真的很难制作。
If you can almost write the narrative in advance and say, “In a few years, it’ll be very clear that we’re going to need a lot more power for data centers,” or that “We’re massively short housing stock,” or things of that nature.
如果你几乎可以提前写下叙述并说：“几年后，很明显我们将需要更多的数据中心电力”，或者“我们严重短缺住房库存”，或类似的事情。
When you can do that with certain sectors and certain industries.
当你可以在某些部门和某些行业做到这一点时。
I think industrials in particular, media in particular, lend themselves really well to that, some areas of technology, to be able to, with high fidelity, plot the future.
我认为工业，尤其是媒体，在某些技术领域非常适合，能够以高保真度规划未来。
You invested in Figma pretty early on.
您很早就投资了 Figma。
Well, not so early on, but we did invest in Figma.
好吧，虽然不是很早，但我们确实投资了 Figma。
It’s gone well, right?
一切顺利，对吧？
What can you relate about your thoughts at the time?
您能谈谈您当时的想法吗？
I would say there’re lots of different ways to be a good investor.
我想说，成为一名优秀投资者有很多不同的方法。
There’s what people like Citadel do, which is very short cycle, very short-oriented, which I think is excellent, which is having very high fidelity on short-term data points.
像 Citadel 这样的人所做的就是非常短的周期、非常短期的导向，我认为这非常出色，对短期数据点具有非常高的保真度。
There’s what great private equity firms do, which is having really good long-term signal and financial leverage on LBOs.
伟大的私募股权公司所做的就是对杠杆收购拥有真正良好的长期信号和财务杠杆。
What we do is a little bit different, I would say.
我想说，我们所做的有点不同。
I think Figma will play a part in it, but honestly, there’re so many investments, whether it’s General Electric, which has been one of our larger investments over the years, which is basically, can you articulate an extremely good risk reward where the downside is relatively bounded and the upside is potentially unbounded, but you can forecast what that looks like?
我认为 Figma 会在其中发挥作用，但说实话，有很多投资，无论是通用电气，多年来一直是我们较大的投资之一，基本上，你能阐明一个非常好的风险回报，其中下行空间相对有限，上行空间可能无限，但你可以预测它是什么样子吗？
I think Figma was particularly interesting at the time we made the investment because the antitrust authorities had just blocked their acquisition by Adobe.
我认为 Figma 在我们进行投资时特别有趣，因为反垄断当局刚刚阻止了 Adobe 对其的收购。
So, for roughly half the price Adobe was going to pay, with a significant break free on the balance sheet, you got a best-in-class asset with an extraordinary founder mode leader that was compounding earnings at a very high rate and that had one foot in the future.
因此，只需 Adobe 将支付的价格的大约一半，并且资产负债表上有重大突破，你就可以获得一流的资产，拥有非凡的创始人模式领导者，该领导者以非常高的速度实现复合收益，并且立足于未来。
The asymmetry was very attractive.
这种不对称性非常有吸引力。
You had a significant net cash balance sheet, you had a very high confidence of what the growth rate was going to be, and you also had confidence in the leadership that they’d be able to navigate a complicated environment.
你拥有大量的净现金资产负债表，你对增长率非常有信心，你也对领导层有信心，相信他们能够应对复杂的环境。
Now, you don’t have to name the company, but if you think of a case where you didn’t invest, but almost was going to, could you talk us through what leads you at that final moment to pull the plug and say, “No, we’re not going to do that.”
现在，你不必说出公司的名字，但如果你想到一个你没有投资但几乎打算投资的案例，你能告诉我们是什么导致你在最后一刻停止投资并说：“不，我们不会这样做。”
Yes, and look, by the way, I think the important thing about investing is that there are way more mistakes than wins, and you almost need to be comfortable with that from the outset.
是的，顺便说一句，我认为投资的重要一点是，错误多于成功，你几乎需要从一开始就适应这一点。
Otherwise, you’ll never be able to be comfortable with yourself.
否则，你永远无法对自己感到满意。
There’re two types of errors.
有两种类型的错误。
There’re the investments you didn’t make that did really well, but oftentimes they went really well for the wrong reasons, so you pulled the plug because you didn’t have confidence in your thesis.
有些投资你并没有做得很好，但往往它们因为错误的原因而进展得很顺利，所以你因为对自己的论文没有信心而放弃了。
But some other thesis shows up, and the stock does extremely well.
但其他一些论点出现了，该股表现非常好。
Honestly, I don’t lose one second of sleep over those because that was unpredictable.
老实说，我不会因为这些而失去一秒钟的睡眠，因为这是不可预测的。
For us, we have to focus on our process, and that process will engender really good outcomes.
对我们来说，我们必须专注于我们的过程，而这个过程将会产生真正好的结果。
The mistakes I lose sleep over are where they are more passive decisions than active decisions, where we’re really close, but for whatever reason, we decided not to engage on a given topic, and that is something that we’re always continuously trying to improve in our process.
我失眠的错误是，它们是被动决策而不是主动决策，我们非常接近，但无论出于何种原因，我们决定不参与某个特定主题，而这是我们在流程中始终不断努力改进的事情。
Because you don’t know enough about the topic or the sector.
因为你对这个话题或这个行业还不够了解。
Or we get distracted, or things are busy.
或者我们分心了，或者事情很忙。
There’re lots of reasons why.
原因有很多。
Remember, as I mentioned, we only own 10 to 15 public positions at a given time.
请记住，正如我提到的，我们在特定时间只拥有 10 到 15 个公共职位。
We own even fewer private positions at a given time, so the bar is extremely high.
我们在特定时间拥有的私人头寸甚至更少，因此门槛非常高。
If you think about our holding period plus how few positions we own, we’re only adding one or two or three ideas in the corpus every year or so.
如果你考虑一下我们的持有期限以及我们拥有的职位数量，我们每年大约只会在语料库中添加一个或两个或三个想法。
So, we keep a super high bar, which I think is really important in investing, but then you can’t have FOMO about the things that you missed.
所以，我们保持了一个超高的标准，我认为这对于投资来说非常重要，但是你不能对你错过的事情感到害怕。
We’re never going to get everything right.
我们永远不可能把所有事情都做好。
We just have to make sure the things that we get are right.
我们只需要确保我们得到的东西是正确的。
On founder energy in investment firms
论投资公司创始人的能量
In the tech world, one hears all the time about founder energy or the founder mode.
在科技界，人们总是听说创始人能量或创始人模式。
Does that apply to investing companies?
这适用于投资公司吗？
Oh my gosh.
天哪。
Tell us how.
告诉我们怎么做。
Look, I think there’s something in the water where people feel that investing companies aren’t entrepreneurial.
听着，我认为人们认为投资公司没有创业精神。
I think the best investment organizations are obviously entrepreneurial.
我认为最好的投资组织显然是具有创业精神的。
I think, though, because there are such low barriers to entry in investing, there’re a lot of mediocre investment organizations that don’t have that founder entrepreneurial energy against it.
不过，我认为，由于投资的进入门槛如此之低，所以有很多平庸的投资组织没有创始人的创业能量来反对它。
One of the things that I try to do every day is to make sure we have that entrepreneurial energy against it.
我每天尝试做的事情之一就是确保我们有创业精神来应对它。
But if you look at all of them, Sequoia has a ton of entrepreneurial energy.
但如果你看一下所有这些，就会发现红杉拥有巨大的创业活力。
Andreessen Horowitz has a great deal of entrepreneurial energy.
安德森·霍洛维茨 (Andreessen Horowitz) 拥有强大的创业活力。
Blackstone has so much entrepreneurial energy.
黑石有如此强大的创业活力。
It’s actually surprising how commercial and entrepreneurial people are.
事实上，人们的商业和创业精神令人惊讶。
I think we are somewhat unique, though, in our industry, as we have a maniacal focus on getting better and reinvention and having that founder-led culture of innovation and open-mindedness.
不过，我认为在我们的行业中，我们有些独特，因为我们疯狂地专注于变得更好和重塑，并拥有创始人领导的创新和开放文化。
How do you hire to stop your company from becoming too soft or too complacent?
如何通过招聘来阻止公司变得过于软弱或过于自满？
Everyone wants smart people.
每个人都想要聪明的人。
There’s a lot of competition in finance, also from the tech world.
金融领域的竞争非常激烈，科技领域的竞争也很激烈。
Yes, I would say it has to start with the founder.
是的，我想说这必须从创始人开始。
One of the things about many organizations — this could happen to any professional service organization, investment firm, or law — is the top gets lazy, so that culture seeps all the way through.
许多组织的问题之一——“任何专业服务组织、投资公司或法律机构都可能发生这种情况”——高层变得懒惰，因此文化一路渗透。
The number one thing you have to do is keep the rope tight.
你要做的第一件事就是保持绳子拉紧。
We have this cultural mantra around rigor and kindness.
我们有这种围绕严谨和善良的文化格言。
We keep that always.
我们始终保留这一点。
If I ever slow down, everyone will see it.
如果我放慢速度，每个人都会看到。
The number one thing I do is surround myself with people who will tell me the truth to make sure that if I am slowing down, they will say, “Hey, you have to remember the commitment we all made to each other,” and keep that energy high.
我做的第一件事就是让自己周围的人都告诉我真相，以确保如果我放慢速度，他们会说，“嘿，你必须记住我们对彼此做出的承诺”，并保持高昂的能量。
The other thing is, I think too many investment firms select purely by resume and financial modeling skills, and GPA.
另一件事是，我认为太多投资公司纯粹根据简历、财务建模技能和 GPA 来选择。
I think obviously that’s important, but David Chang has this amazing concept —
我认为这显然很重要，但 David Chang 有这个令人惊叹的概念 ——
This is Chef David Chang, the Momofuku David Chang?
这是厨师 David Chang，百福 David Chang？
The Momofuku David Chang.
百福张大卫。
He’s great, right?
他很棒，对吧？
He’s the best.
他是最好的。
One of the great things I’ve learned from David is, he has this concept of you have to be good enough, and then you have to have something special on top.
我从大卫身上学到的最重要的事情之一是，他有这样的观念：你必须足够好，然后你必须有一些特别的东西。
What that means — the average investment firm will pick someone who has a 4.0 from Wharton or Harvard and then went to Blackstone and then is ready for their next challenge, and they’ll be fine.
这意味着什么——一般投资公司会选择沃顿商学院或哈佛商学院 4.0 分的人，然后去黑石，然后为下一个挑战做好准备，他们会没事的。
But what we end up doing — that, of course, we do, but we look for that extra spark, that extra gear, that extra curiosity, that extra ingenuity.
但我们最终会做什么——当然，我们会这样做，但我们寻找额外的火花、额外的装备、额外的好奇心、额外的独创性。
By the way, we look for that at every position at the firm.
顺便说一句，我们在公司的每个职位上都寻求这一点。
We have a little less than 50 people.
我们有不到 50 人。
Of them, 10 to 12 are investment professionals.
其中，10至12名是投资专业人士。
The rest are non-investment professionals.
其余的是非投资专业人士。
They help support the investment process.
他们帮助支持投资过程。
The other mistake that a lot of organizations make, in my opinion, is they lower the bar for the non-investment side.
在我看来，许多组织犯的另一个错误是他们降低了非投资方的门槛。
We keep the bar high on everyone.
我们对每个人都保持高标准。
That creates an energy and a culture and a dynamism about what we do that I’m very proud of at XN.
这为我们的工作创造了一种能量、一种文化和活力，我为 XN 感到非常自豪。
You have an open-plan office here.
您在这里有一个开放式办公室。
Yes.
是的。
People claim that’s bad.
人们声称这很糟糕。
I’ve never been persuaded, but defend an open-plan office.
我从来没有被说服过，但我捍卫开放式办公室。
Why is it good?
为什么好呢？
I always knew it was going to be good.
我一直都知道这会很好。
We’ve had one forever.
我们永远拥有一个。
I think it’s particularly good today, in where investing is going.
我认为今天的投资趋势特别好。
The world is way more interconnected than ever.
世界比以往任何时候都更加相互联系。
Very simply, who would have thought of a world — 5 years ago, 10 years ago — where you have to have a conversation about software, power, and semiconductors all together?
很简单，谁会想到一个世界 —— 5年前、10年前 —— 你必须一起讨论软件、电力和半导体？
The open plan allows the organization to basically use the Socratic method, talk to one another.
开放式计划允许组织基本上使用苏格拉底式的方法，互相交谈。
Create sparks of curiosity that we can pull the thread on.
创造好奇心的火花，让我们能够抓住线索。
If we all worked in individual offices, I think you end up with a much more complicated way to analyze companies, much more siloed.
如果我们都在单独的办公室工作，我认为你最终会采用一种更加复杂的方式来分析公司，更加孤立。
I think we as a firm — but the world at large — is becoming much more connected.
我认为我们作为一家公司——但整个世界——正在变得更加紧密相连。
For a brief while, you retired from investing, right?
有一段时间，您不再投资了，对吧？
Then you came back.
然后你回来了。
What’s that story?
那是什么故事？
I had an incredibly fortunate early part of my career.
我在职业生涯的早期经历了一段非常幸运的时光。
I was a young partner at a place called TPG Axon, which was an incredible hotbed of talent.
我是 TPG Axon 公司的年轻合伙人，这是一个令人难以置信的人才温床。
I think some of the best investment talent I’ve ever met all worked there.
我认为我见过的一些最优秀的投资人才都在那里工作过。
Then we all ended up doing our own things.
然后我们都各自做自己的事情。
I started a firm called Soroban with a partner.
我和一位合伙人创办了一家名为 Soroban 的公司。
Then I ended up leaving that firm.
然后我最终离开了那家公司。
I wouldn’t say I retired from investing.
我不会说我从投资领域退休了。
I retired from managing outside capital, which is a very different thing.
我从管理外部资本中退休，这是一件非常不同的事情。
This office that we’re sitting in today, XN, was the name of my family office at the time, because I actually loved investing.
我们今天坐的这个办公室，XN，是我当时家族办公室的名字，因为我真的很喜欢投资。
I just wasn’t sure if we had a path to doing it as successfully as I wanted with outside capital.
我只是不确定我们是否有办法利用外部资本成功地做到这一点。
For a couple of years, myself and my colleagues here — we managed basically my money with the same philosophy that we run XN in.
几年来，我和我的同事们 — 我们基本上以与运营 XN 相同的理念来管理我的资金。
That was incredibly satisfying because the spark and the purity of the intellectual challenge of investing came back to me.
这真是令人难以置信的满足，因为投资的智力挑战的火花和纯粹性又回到了我的身边。
To be honest, towards the end of my time at my previous firm, I was less enthusiastic about the process and the excitement of investing than I certainly am today.
老实说，在我在上一家公司工作的最后阶段，我对投资过程和投资的兴奋程度不如今天那么热情。
Going through that family-office process really helped underscore and bring me back to the joy of investing.
经历家族办公室流程确实有助于强调并让我重拾投资的乐趣。
On the sociology of finance in NYC, London, and the UAE
纽约、伦敦和阿联酋的金融社会学
Sociologically, how does New York City finance differ from London finance?
从社会学角度来看，纽约金融与伦敦金融有何不同？
You’ve done things in both worlds, right?
你在两个世界都做过事情，对吧？
There’s a feel to it in London.
有一种在伦敦的感觉。
It’s different.
这是不同的。
Yes, it’s a little more buttoned up and much more banker-like than entrepreneurial.
是的，它有点保守，更像银行家，而不是企业家。
America — I would say New York and California have a little bit less of the banker energy and more the swashbuckling investor energy.
美国——我想说，纽约和加利福尼亚州的银行家活力稍弱一些，而虚张声势的投资者活力则较多。
Even in New York — a lot of the history of the finance in New York were pure swashbucklers.
即使在纽约——纽约的许多金融历史都是纯粹的虚张声势。
You have a little bit of that energy, even though we don’t do the same thing at all.
尽管我们根本不做同样的事情，但你还是有一点这样的能量。
I don’t do the same thing as Paul Tudor Jones at all.
我根本不做与保罗·都铎·琼斯相同的事情。
I don’t do the same thing as Henry Kravis at all.
我根本不做与亨利·克拉维斯同样的事情。
Taking really big bets, being out there — it seeps into the culture here, whereas in the UK, almost the opposite is true, or had been true when I was there.
下真正的大赌注，在外面——它渗透到这里的文化中，而在英国，情况几乎相反，或者当我在那里时就是这样。
How is UAE finance evolving in that regard?
阿联酋金融在这方面的发展如何？
I think it’s evolving extremely quickly.
我认为它的发展非常快。
It, of course, started with the large sovereign wealth funds, but now, because of the amount of wealth that’s being created, you’re having a much higher .
当然，它始于大型主权财富基金，但现在，由于正在创造的财富数量，你拥有的财富要高得多。
.
。
.
。
Well, there’re two things that are happening.
嗯，有两件事正在发生。
The very favorable tax regime — relative to the UK and European tax regime — are attracting non-US citizens in droves to the UAE.
非常优惠的税收制度（相对于英国和欧洲税收制度）正在吸引大量非美国公民来到阿联酋。
Basically, no income tax and no capital gains will do that.
基本上，没有所得税和资本利得就可以做到这一点。
We obviously, as Americans, can’t do that.
作为美国人，我们显然无法做到这一点。
The second thing is there’s a tremendous amount of wealth being created in the region.
第二件事是该地区正在创造大量财富。
So, you have this influx of talent, and then you have this influx of capital and this maturation of capital.
因此，人才涌入，资本涌入，资本成熟。
I had never been to the Middle East prior to three or four years ago, and I’ve been many times since then.
三四年前我从未去过中东，此后我已经去过很多次了。
It changes dramatically every single time I’m there.
每次我在那里，它都会发生巨大的变化。
There is a very high degree of optimism and entrepreneurial energy there now.
现在那里充满了高度的乐观情绪和创业精神。
On how AI reshapes investing
论人工智能如何重塑投资
How does AI affect how you think about investing, companies, sectors?
人工智能如何影响您对投资、公司、行业的看法？
There’s a good chance it spreads everywhere, right?
它很有可能传播到各处，对吗？
How do you take that into account?
您如何考虑这一点？
I would say Tyler’s been almost my coach in this because he has really encouraged me.
我想说泰勒在这方面几乎是我的教练，因为他真的鼓励了我。
I think we’re a very modern organization, and I’m a pretty modern person, but to really embrace the max case of what AI can do .
我认为我们是一个非常现代的组织，我也是一个非常现代的人，但要真正拥抱人工智能所能做到的最大情况。
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。
.
。
I’m pretty optimistic as to what AI can do in an investment organization, but going back to, I think you need a lot of entrepreneurial energy to force it through.
我对人工智能在投资机构中的作用非常乐观，但回到过去，我认为你需要大量的创业能量来推动它实现。
SEC-regulated investment firms — there’s just a ton of detritus within it.
受美国证券交易委员会监管的投资公司 ——里面只有大量的碎片。
The thing about AI is you have to push forward and push through it.
关于人工智能的问题是你必须向前推进并克服它。
Now, I think there’s going to be a couple of proximate effects.
现在，我认为将会产生一些直接影响。
I would say investing and running an investment management organization are two different things.
我想说投资和运营投资管理组织是两件不同的事情。
The proximate effects, I think, on investing — it’s going to allow better, faster, more in-depth analysis much more quickly.
我认为，对投资的直接影响是——它将允许更快更好、更快、更深入的分析。
So much of our analysts’ time is spent on initial evaluations of companies.
我们分析师的大部分时间都花在对公司的初步评估上。
I expect that in the next very short run — within the next year — to be able to have a lot of leverage from AI.
我预计在接下来很短的时间内————明年————能够从人工智能中获得很大的影响力。
That actually allows our analysts and myself, and other partners here, to spend most of our energy applying judgment and taste to the corpus of facts.
这实际上使我们的分析师和我自己以及这里的其他合作伙伴能够花费大部分精力对事实语料库进行判断和品味。
One of the things I always like to say is, if Julian Robertson came to my office and opened up my desktop, he would know exactly what to do.
我总是喜欢说的一件事是，如果朱利安·罗伯逊来到我的办公室并打开我的桌面，他就会确切地知道该怎么做。
It’s Bloomberg, it’s Excel, et cetera.
它是 Bloomberg、Excel 等等。
I think that’s about to change really dramatically with custom tooling, custom analysis, et cetera.
我认为，随着定制工具、定制分析等的出现，这种情况将会发生巨大的变化。
That’s on the investing side.
这是在投资方面。
I think one of the other things that is also non-intuitive is that a lot goes into running an investment organization.
我认为另一件事也是不直观的，那就是投资组织的运营需要投入很多精力。
Legal — the compliance burdens are off the charts — operations, tax, et cetera.
合法——“合规负担超乎寻常”——“运营、税收等等。”
I think there’s a huge opportunity in making the quality of life and accuracy much better there.
我认为那里有一个巨大的机会可以提高生活质量和准确性。
I think there’s going to be a twofold impact.
我认为这将会产生双重影响。
But I also think most investment organizations do not have the wherewithal to go through change.
但我也认为大多数投资机构没有足够的资金来进行变革。
But it’s because yours is in founder mode that you think they do, hope they do.
但正是因为你的公司处于创始人模式，所以你认为他们这样做，希望他们这样做。
Yes, and there’re other organizations that are in founder mode.
是的，还有其他处于创始人模式的组织。
I think they will thrive as well.
我认为他们也会蓬勃发展。
I think a lot of organizations will that have embraced this.
我认为很多组织都会接受这一点。
But if you look at the history of our subindustry within — public markets investing, some private investing — the general industry pressures encourage you to not innovate.
但如果你看看我们子行业的历史——“公开市场投资，一些私人投资”——一般行业压力会鼓励你不创新。
So, it really takes a lot of effort to innovate.
所以，创新确实需要付出很大的努力。
Founder mode, I think, is going to be really important in that.
我认为创始人模式在这方面非常重要。
There’s a headline I read, I think yesterday: J.P.
我记得昨天读过一个标题：J.P.
Morgan is going to spend some large amount.
摩根将花费大量资金。
$2 billion to get $2 billion in savings.
20 亿美元即可节省 20 亿美元。
$2 billion.
20亿美元。
Yes.
是的。
When you read that, what do you think?
当你读到这句话时，你有什么感想？
Nothing.
没有什么。
That is the headline.
这就是标题。
Yes, I think nothing.
是的，我觉得没什么。
I will say a couple of things.
我会说几件事。
A lot of people — and this is not J.P.
很多人 — 这不是 J.P.
Morgan, obviously; it’s an incredible organization — but a lot of people are in the headline-generating business.
摩根，显然；这是一个令人难以置信的组织 — 但很多人都从事头条新闻行业。
As we talked prior, we’re in the results-generating business.
正如我们之前所说，我们从事的是创造成果的业务。
In periods of technological change, that separates a great deal.
在技术变革时期，这两者之间存在很大差异。
There’re a lot of headlines I would ignore.
有很多我会忽略的头条新闻。
I would also say it’s very early.
我还想说现在还很早。
We are way earlier in the evolution of AI, so I’m very skeptical that a lot of companies, like financial institutions, are spending as much as they claim to be yet, because the use cases and the integrations are still very early in process to do.
我们在人工智能的发展中处于早期阶段，因此我非常怀疑许多公司（例如金融机构）是否像他们声称的那样投入大量资金，因为用例和集成仍处于早期阶段。
What do you use AI for personally?
您个人使用人工智能做什么？
One of the ways I’ve historically learned is, I’ve always been a really curious person about more than just finance, so quite a lot of things.
我从历史上学到的方法之一是，我一直是一个非常好奇的人，不仅仅是对金融，还有很多事情。
I used to hire tutors.
我曾经聘请过导师。
If I wanted to learn about art, I’d email the art history department of the local university, and they’d send me a masters student.
如果我想学习艺术，我会给当地大学的艺术史系发电子邮件，他们会给我派一名硕士生。
I’d pay them, and they’d create a custom curriculum for me.
我付钱给他们，他们会为我创建定制课程。
I felt like I didn’t know enough about Shakespeare, so I did the same thing.
我觉得我对莎士比亚了解不够，所以我也做了同样的事情。
I think, already, using AI as a knowledge augmenter is amazing.
我认为，使用人工智能作为知识增强器已经是令人惊奇的了。
That’s how I personally use AI right now.
这就是我个人现在使用人工智能的方式。
If I want to go in-depth in a subject matter — general or specific — it’s my first port of call.
如果我想深入研究某个主题（一般或具体），那么这是我的第一站。
On how museums are run
关于博物馆的运营方式
Now, I have many questions about museums and art.
现在，我对博物馆和艺术有很多疑问。
I know you’re on the board of the Whitney, so I’m not asking you about the Whitney because it might be awkward for you to speak about that on the record, but if I go to most art museums, and I see the gift shop and the restaurant, it used to be those are always too small.
我知道你是惠特尼的董事会成员，所以我不会问你关于惠特尼的事情，因为你在记录中谈论这个可能会很尴尬，但如果我去大多数艺术博物馆，我看到礼品店和餐厅，过去那些总是太小了。
Are we now at the point where those are too large?
我们现在是否已经到了这些规模太大的地步了？
What’s your opinion?
你有什么看法？
There will never be a museum gift shop too big for me, is my general opinion.
我的普遍看法是，永远不会有一家博物馆礼品店对我来说太大。
No, I think it varies deeply by institution.
不，我认为不同机构的情况差异很大。
One of the things, as an example, MoMA has done, via the MoMA Design Store, is, they’ve taken the sensibilities of the museum and brought it to a lot of other places.
例如，现代艺术博物馆通过现代艺术博物馆设计商店所做的一件事是，他们将博物馆的情感带到了许多其他地方。
I think that’s one of the core purposes of a museum.
我认为这是博物馆的核心目的之一。
No, first of all, I haven’t been to a gift shop or restaurant that’s not extremely crowded, so it seems like they should be bigger.
不，首先，我没有去过不是很拥挤的礼品店或餐厅，所以看起来它们应该更大一些。
They still should be larger.
它们仍然应该更大。
What’s the most common fundraising mistake that art museums make?
艺术博物馆最常见的筹款错误是什么？
I think it’s worthwhile .
我认为这是值得的。
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。
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When I was looking at the Marginal Revolution comments, I think people may not understand how museums work and operate.
当我看边际革命的评论时，我想人们可能不理解博物馆是如何运作和运作的。
One of the ways I think about my schema of the way museums work is that they’re a public good that’s largely financed by private capital.
我对博物馆运作方式的思考方式之一是，它们是一种公共产品，主要由私人资本资助。
Almost all museums operate at an operating deficit.
几乎所有博物馆都处于运营赤字状态。
That’s the number one thing that I think people should realize, which is, these amazing cultural institutions all over the world are financed by people who want to bring that more into the world.
我认为人们应该意识到的第一件事是，世界各地这些令人惊叹的文化机构都是由那些想要将更多文化带入世界的人们资助的。
It’s not a for-profit endeavor.
这不是一项以营利为目的的活动。
It really is a part of a public good.
这确实是公共利益的一部分。
Within that, there’s obviously fundraising that you need to do.
其中，显然您需要进行筹款。
That pressure has gotten way more acute over the last, I would say, previous administration, but just in general.
我想说，在上届政府中，这种压力变得更加严重，但只是总体而言。
Inflation has taken a toll.
通货膨胀已经造成了损失。
Admissions are a relatively small portion of the operating budget.
入场费仅占运营预算的一小部分。
There’s going to be more and more pressure on doing a few things, including deaccessioning work, so selling works that are in the collections, raising capital from large donors.
做一些事情的压力将会越来越大，包括出售作品、出售藏品中的作品、从大型捐赠者那里筹集资金。
I think the biggest mistake a museum could make, especially a public institution, is to have fundraising override the mission.
我认为博物馆，尤其是公共机构，可能犯的最大错误就是让筹款凌驾于使命之上。
To have donors, including donors like me — who I think my judgment is pretty good in these matters — overly influence program, overly influence community.
有捐助者，包括像我这样的捐助者 ——我认为我在这些问题上的判断力相当好—— 过度影响项目，过度影响社区。
I think that is the biggest mistake that institutions make, and over time, they always regret it.
我认为这是机构所犯的最大错误，随着时间的推移，他们总是会后悔。
Should museums put more works out on the walls?
博物馆是否应该在墙上展示更多作品？
I see so much blank wall space, and I know it’s low status to put pictures on the way to the men’s room, but I want them to do it.
我看到很多空白的墙壁空间，我知道在去男厕所的路上放照片是低级的，但我希望他们这样做。
Should they do it?
他们应该这样做吗？
Tyler’s Mercatus office, added for no reason at all.
泰勒的 Mercatus 办公室，毫无理由地添加。
I think you bring about, I would say, a broader question, which is, 1 percent of most museums’ archive is ever on display.
我认为你提出了一个更广泛的问题，即大多数博物馆的档案中只有 1% 曾经展出过。
I think, personally, that is a tragedy.
我个人认为，这是一个悲剧。
I think there is a huge opportunity in a digital world and an increasing physical world to take more of your work and bring it out to the masses.
我认为在数字世界和日益增长的物理世界中存在着巨大的机会，可以将您的更多作品展示给大众。
I think the best museums are working really hard to create interactive things online so you can see and study lots of works.
我认为最好的博物馆正在努力创建在线互动内容，以便您可以观看和研究大量作品。
I think what the V&A did — I’m not sure if you’re familiar with what the V&A Museum did with their storage in the UK.
我想 V&A 做了什么 — 我不确定你是否熟悉 V&A 博物馆对英国的藏品做了什么。
It’s outside of London.
它位于伦敦郊外。
Yes.
是的。
They created a beautiful site, a museum unto itself, of storage.
他们创建了一个美丽的场所，本身就是一个存储博物馆。
I think that’s a brilliant idea.
我认为这是一个绝妙的主意。
Should they put more works on the wall?
他们应该在墙上挂更多的作品吗？
Above my pay grade.
高于我的工资等级。
Should the museums be using their very significant archives and collections and bring it more out into the world digitally and physically?
博物馆是否应该利用其非常重要的档案和藏品，并以数字和实体方式将其更多地带入世界？
Absolutely.
绝对地。
How will AI reshape art museums and the world of art?
人工智能将如何重塑美术馆和艺术世界？
Putting aside AI-generated images.
抛开人工智能生成的图像。
Actually, in quite a number of ways.
事实上，有很多方面。
I think one of the really interesting use cases that I’ve seen is allowing any-language visitor to have their own personalized, in-depth tour of the museum.
我认为我见过的真正有趣的用例之一是允许任何语言的游客进行自己的个性化、深入的博物馆之旅。
There’re so many museum experiences where you just go and walk in a circle because it’s too crowded.
有很多博物馆体验你只能走一圈，因为太拥挤了。
You can’t engage.
你不能参与。
You don’t know as much about the art or the artist.
你对艺术或艺术家了解不多。
The captions are too small, all this stuff.
字幕太小了，都是这些东西。
Or you don’t speak the language of the museum or whatever the case may be.
或者你不会说博物馆的语言或任何情况。
I think there’s going to be an amazing set of promising instruments, which is, you can use AR plus AI to understand the context of a work much more broadly.
我认为将会出现一系列令人惊叹的有前途的工具，也就是说，你可以使用 AR 加上 AI 来更广泛地理解作品的背景。
About the Whitney, what is the biggest or most important strength of the Whitney that, say, even people who go might not know about?
关于惠特尼，惠特尼最大或最重要的、连去过的人都可能不知道的优势是什么？
Their commitment to community.
他们对社区的承诺。
Community access, and really, they’re extraordinarily principles-driven.
社区访问，实际上，它们非常受原则驱动。
Really a big believer in artistic freedom.
确实是艺术自由的坚定信仰者。
A really big believer that the museum should be for everybody.
他坚信博物馆应该适合所有人。
Anyone under 25 can show up and go to the museum for free.
25 岁以下的任何人都可以免费参观博物馆。
That’s amazing.
太棒了。
I think there’re cultural tenets.
我认为这是有文化原则的。
They have a very specific mission.
他们有一个非常具体的使命。
It’s the Whitney Museum of American Art.
这是惠特尼美国艺术博物馆。
It’s almost all contemporary art.
几乎都是当代艺术。
It’s very different than the Museum of Modern Art.
它与现代艺术博物馆有很大不同。
They hew very closely to the mission, but they also hew very closely to the principles.
他们非常恪守使命，但也非常恪守原则。
On favorite artists
关于最喜欢的艺术家
Now, we’re sitting in a room with the wonderful work by Kara Walker.
现在，我们坐在一个房间里，里面摆满了卡拉·沃克 (Kara Walker) 的精彩作品。
She’s a favorite contemporary artist of mine.
她是我最喜欢的当代艺术家。
How would you articulate what makes this Kara Walker special?
您如何阐明卡拉·沃克的特别之处？
There’s a lot of Kara Walker that I like, but it’s a bit generic.
我喜欢的卡拉·沃克有很多，但都有点一般。
I feel I could see the same thing 200 times.
我觉得同样的事情我可以看200遍。
Maybe you do over time.
也许随着时间的推移你会这样做。
Some works really stand out.
有些作品确实脱颖而出。
How do you think about why this one is amazing?
您如何看待这件作品为何令人惊叹？
The je ne sais quoi of what makes an art piece stand out in someone’s practice is something that I’ve been trying to refine my engagement of since I’ve been collecting.
自从我开始收藏以来，我一直在努力提高自己对一件艺术品在实践中脱颖而出的原因。
I think in this particular work, it is so meticulously crafted.
我认为在这个特别的作品中，它是非常精心制作的。
It is so clear what the point is.
重点是什么就很清楚了。
It is so beautifully put together, even though it’s a really complicated subject matter.
尽管这是一个非常复杂的主题，但它组合在一起非常漂亮。
It’s visually arresting.
它在视觉上很引人注目。
I think, in this case, that’s what works here.
我认为，在这种情况下，这就是有效的方法。
What to you think is special about the work of Rashid Johnson?
您认为拉希德·约翰逊的作品有何特别之处？
Rashid is a really incredible person.
拉希德真是一个不可思议的人。
I know there’re a lot of questions about art.
我知道有很多关于艺术的问题。
Maybe I’d just clarify a little bit about my approach to art collecting because I want to make sure people understand.
也许我只是想澄清一下我的艺术收藏方法，因为我想确保人们理解。
I certainly try not to be the cliche of the finance guy who gets into art.
我当然尽量不成为进入艺术领域的金融人士的陈词滥调。
I actually fell in love with art before I fell in love with investing.
事实上，在我爱上投资之前，我就爱上了艺术。
I have been collecting since I was broke, very early.
自从我很早就破产以来，我就一直在收集。
When I got serious about collecting, I was 29 years old.
当我开始认真收藏的时候，我已经29岁了。
I made a really specific decision.
我做了一个非常具体的决定。
The number one thing I identify is as an American, and I wanted to collect American art.
我认为最重要的是作为一个美国人，我想收藏美国艺术品。
The second thing I did was I wanted to collect artists of my generation.
我做的第二件事是我想收集我这一代的艺术家。
When I was 29 years old, when I started really collecting, I decided I’m going to have a really specific collection.
当我 29 岁的时候，当我开始真正收藏时，我决定要拥有一个非常具体的收藏。
That collection is going to be artists my age — 29 at the time, 44 today — plus or minus 20 years.
该收藏将是我这个年龄的艺术家——当时29岁，今天44岁——正负20岁。
I wasn’t collecting any nine-year-olds, but I wanted to keep that criteria going all the way through.
我没有收集任何九岁的孩子，但我想一直保持这个标准。
Rashid obviously fits really squarely within that.
拉希德显然非常适合这一点。
We’ve been very lucky to become really good friends over time.
随着时间的推移，我们很幸运能够成为真正的好朋友。
One of the most amazing things about his work is that, in addition to being visually arresting, it is so intellectually complex that it stays with you.
他的作品最令人惊奇的事情之一是，除了视觉上引人注目之外，它的智力也非常复杂，让人难以忘怀。
It is a portrait of a lot of feelings, a lot of anxiety, a lot of insecurities that I think we all have.
这是我认为我们都有的很多感受、很多焦虑和很多不安全感的写照。
Then it keeps coming back to you.
然后它会不断回到你身边。
There’re so many things I love about him as an artist and as a person, but I think his ability to take risks and exploit the really uncomfortable, rise to the top.
作为一名艺术家和一个人，我有很多喜欢他的地方，但我认为他有能力承担风险并利用真正不舒服的东西，从而达到顶峰。
Talking about someone who could coast — Rashid could just make anxious audience paintings for the rest of his life and live a very comfortable living.
谈论一个可以轻松驾驭的人——拉希德可以在他的余生中为焦虑的观众画画，并过着非常舒适的生活。
He’s decided not to do that.
他决定不这样做。
Myself and a few of our friends, went to see — he put on a production of The Dutchman in a sauna in New York City.
我和我们的几个朋友去看了他在纽约市的桑拿浴室上演的《荷兰人》。
He directed a play, amazing.
他导演了一部戏，很棒。
That’s a real risk for an artist that’s a painter.
对于画家艺术家来说，这是一个真正的风险。
He’s making these really complicated installations.
他正在制作这些非常复杂的装置。
That’s also a real risk.
这也是一个真正的风险。
He’s making movies.
他正在拍电影。
He’s pushing his practice.
他正在推动他的实践。
He’s making himself uncomfortable, and as a viewer of the art, you also feel a lot of that energy.
他让自己感到不舒服，作为艺术的观众，你也会感受到很多这种能量。
Does buying art and evaluating art make you a better investor in companies?
购买艺术品和评估艺术品会让您成为更好的公司投资者吗？
One hundred percent, in a different way than you think — or maybe I don’t know exactly how you think, but here’s how I think about it.
百分之一百，与你想象的不同——或者也许我不知道你到底是怎么想的，但我是这么想的。
It does a couple of things.
它做了几件事。
I don’t believe in art as an asset class.
我不相信艺术是一种资产类别。
I never have, never will.
我从来没有，也永远不会。
I believe it is ultimately intellectual exercise that exercises the right side of my brain and gives me more context about the world around me.
我相信最终的智力锻炼可以锻炼我的右脑，让我对周围的世界有更多的了解。
I think investing is ultimately about judgment and developing your own taste.
我认为投资最终取决于判断力和培养自己的品味。
Art collecting or any collecting or any connoisseurship is the same way.
艺术收藏或任何收藏或任何鉴赏都是同样的方式。
It forces you to really examine what’s important.
它迫使你真正检查什么是重要的。
To really examine what makes something outstanding.
真正审视是什么让某件事变得杰出。
To not just take somebody else’s judgment and taste and apply it to yourself, but to develop your own.
不仅要采纳别人的判断和品味并将其应用到自己身上，还要发展自己的判断和品味。
All of these soft skills that you develop along the way, I think, help in all domains.
我认为，您在此过程中培养的所有这些软技能对所有领域都有帮助。
Salman Toor — why is he an interesting painter?
Salman Toor ——为什么他是一位有趣的画家？
Salman Toor, for those of you who don’t know, there’re two articles I’d encourage.
Salman Toor，对于那些不知道的人，我推荐两篇文章。
There’s a New York Times article about his work, and there’s a New Yorker article about his work.
《纽约时报》有一篇关于他的工作的文章，《纽约客》有一篇关于他的工作的文章。
Salman, I find both interesting in a general manner and a very specific manner as well.
萨尔曼，我发现无论是一般的方式还是非常具体的方式都很有趣。
I am very drawn to virtuosity and excellence, and I think he is technically one of the most talented painters ever.
我非常喜欢精湛的技艺和卓越的表现，我认为他在技术上是有史以来最有才华的画家之一。
He’s incredible.
他太不可思议了。
The second thing is, I’m fascinated by his practice.
第二件事是，我对他的实践很着迷。
He paints and draws entirely from memory.
他完全凭记忆进行绘画和绘画。
He does not use a reference image.
他不使用参考图像。
It’s all in his mind’s eye.
这一切都在他的心里。
He takes this technical virtuosity and puts it on canvas or wood in a way that’s almost mind-boggling.
他将这种精湛的技术运用到画布或木头上，以一种几乎令人难以置信的方式。
The level of detail, the level of excellence, the level of precision.
细节水平、卓越水平、精确水平。
It’s really refreshing to see someone almost with the technique of an old master’s working on a contemporary work.
看到一个人以近乎古代大师的技巧创作当代作品，真是令人耳目一新。
I think he’s extraordinarily talented in a general artistic manner.
我认为他在一般艺术方面非常有才华。
I would say, for me, it’s actually also been really meaningful because I’m Indian American.
我想说，对我来说，这实际上也非常有意义，因为我是印度裔美国人。
The first work I saw of Salman Toor — he had a series called The Weary Traveler or The Traveler, which was basically about people who look like me going through TSA post-9/11.
我看到的 Salman Toor 的第一部作品——他有一个名为《疲惫的旅行者》或《旅行者》的系列，基本上是关于那些看起来像我的人在 9/11 后经历 TSA 的故事。
If any of you have traveled with me through TSA, it’s not the most pleasant experience, or it certainly wasn’t post-9/11.
如果你们中有人和我一起通过 TSA 旅行，这不是最愉快的经历，或者肯定不是 9/11 后的经历。
Just seeing the feelings that I often felt on a painting were absolutely crazy to me.
仅仅看到我经常在画作上感受到的感觉对我来说绝对是疯狂的。
Now, there’s something in Jain philosophy that emphasizes the importance of multiple perspectives.
现在，耆那教哲学中有些东西强调多种观点的重要性。
Do you think you got any of that from your upbringing?
你认为你从你的成长过程中得到了这些吗？
I don’t think I got a lot of it — that specific thing — from Jainism, but I got a lot of that from my mother.
我不认为我从耆那教那里得到了很多——“那个特定的东西”，但我从我母亲那里得到了很多。
My mother — I guess now that I think about it, I’m a lot like her, but she would be very interested in being an expert in a variety of fields just because she thought it would make her a more complete person.
我的母亲 —— 我想现在想来，我很像她，但她会对成为各个领域的专家非常感兴趣，因为她认为这会让她成为一个更完整的人。
She started as a data scientist.
她最初是一名数据科学家。
When she retired, she started a jewelry company.
退休后，她创办了一家珠宝公司。
From that, she actually moved to China when she was, I think, 68 years old.
从那时起，她实际上搬到了中国，我想是在她 68 岁的时候。
She moved to a random city in China without telling us and went to art school there.
她在没有告诉我们的情况下搬到了中国的一个随机城市，并在那里上了艺术学校。
There’s a lot of that that runs through my veins.
我的血管里流淌着很多这样的东西。
Maybe she got it from her Jainism and her Jain upbringing, but I think that’s where I got it from.
也许她从她的耆那教和耆那教成长中得到了它，但我认为这就是我得到它的地方。
To go back to this finance idea of the trade you didn’t make, what’s an example of an artist who has a good reputation, who fits the criteria where you collect, but you haven’t bought a work from that artist?
回到你没有进行的交易的财务理念，有一个例子是，一位享有良好声誉、符合你收藏标准的艺术家，但你还没有购买过该艺术家的作品？
And how do you think about why you haven’t?
您如何看待为什么没有这样做？
Mark Grosjean probably fits that criteria pretty well.
马克·格罗斯让可能非常符合这个标准。
It’s just, with art, in my experience, it’s not just buying the criteria.
只是，根据我的经验，艺术不仅仅是购买标准。
The criteria narrows the funnel, but then you have to say, “What does it mean?
标准缩小了漏斗范围，但你必须说：“这意味着什么？
Do I get it?
我明白了吗？
Do I love it?
我喜欢它吗？
Can I live with it?
我可以忍受吗？
How do all of these things add up together?” Mark’s work — I know people love it, it just never stuck with me.
所有这些事情如何加在一起？”马克的作品 — 我知道人们喜欢它，但它从来没有让我着迷。
There’re so many other artists that I think are harder for other people.
我认为还有很多其他艺术家对其他人来说更难。
That goes back to, one needs to develop their own taste and judgment about whatever the topic is.
这可以追溯到，无论主题是什么，人们都需要培养自己的品味和判断力。
Whether it’s investing, whether it’s art, whether it’s real, whatever the broad topic is, you need to put on clothes that are comfortable for you.
无论是投资，无论是艺术，无论是现实，无论主题是什么，你都需要穿上适合你的衣服。
For me, I’ve developed a confident sense of what I like, what I’m drawn to, what I love, so I stick with that.
对我来说，我已经对自己喜欢什么、被什么吸引、什么爱产生了自信，所以我会坚持下去。
On tastes in art and how the canon will evolve
关于艺术品味以及经典将如何演变
How is the artistic canon going to evolve?
艺术经典将如何演变？
Someone asks you about the 1960s.
有人问你关于 20 世纪 60 年代的事。
You say Andy Warhol, Roy Lichtenstein, Frank Stella, and so on and so on.
你说安迪·沃霍尔、罗伊·利希滕斯坦、弗兰克·斯特拉等等。
Whether or not we all agree, it’s pretty clear there’s a list of names from that period.
无论我们是否都同意，很明显有一份那个时期的名单。
If you think about today and the generation you’re collecting from, is the canon just going to stay a mess?
如果你想想今天以及你所收藏的那一代人，经典会变得一团糟吗？
Or is there going to be a winnowing, where 20 years from now there’ll be 7 to 10 names who stand out above all others?
或者是否会进行一场筛选，20年后将会有7到10个名字脱颖而出？
How’s that —
怎么样 ——
First of all, I’m not an art historian.
首先，我不是艺术史学家。
No, you’re in it.
不，你就在其中。
You have skin in the game.
你也参与其中。
I have skin in the game.
我也参与其中。
You really care.
你真的很关心。
If you look at every period, in that period, it was unclear.
如果你看每个时期，在那个时期，就不清楚了。
There’s always a winnowing.
总是有一个筛选过程。
There’s always almost like a Cambrian explosion that winnows down into the people that were most important.
总是像寒武纪大爆发一样，筛选出最重要的人。
I think you’re actually starting to see it now, where artists, more and more, when you separate the commercial aspect of someone’s art and the critical aspects, they are coalescing around a smaller group of names than you would have started with 10 or 15 years ago.
我认为你现在实际上开始看到这一点，越来越多的艺术家，当你将某人艺术的商业方面和批评方面分开时，他们会聚集在比 10 或 15 年前更小的名字群体中。
I expect that to continue, but honestly, my ability to predict who those names are — I’ll have educated guesses, but I’m not going to be perfect at it.
我希望这种情况能够继续下去，但老实说，我预测这些名字是谁的能力 —— 我会有有根据的猜测，但我不会做到完美。
Let’s say I ask you for one, and it’s not that you’re saying they’re your favorite, but most likely to end up in the canon 20, 30 years from now.
假设我向你要一个，你并不是说它们是你最喜欢的，但最有可能在 20、30 年后成为经典。
I think Dana Schutz.
我认为是达纳·舒茨。
I think Dana Schutz is a really important painter, really pushed boundaries, very smart, very cerebral, very talented.
我认为达纳·舒茨是一位非常重要的画家，真正突破了界限，非常聪明，非常有头脑，非常有才华。
I think she’s likely to end up in the canon.
我认为她很可能最终会进入正典。
It’s probably underrated today vis-a-vis that.
今天它可能被低估了。
I think Rudolf Stingel is not underrated, but I think he is highly likely to be an extremely important artist, as is Christopher Wool.
我认为鲁道夫·斯廷格尔并没有被低估，但我认为他很可能是一位极其重要的艺术家，克里斯托弗·伍尔也是如此。
I think you are starting to see more and more of that.
我认为你开始看到越来越多的这种情况。
I would bet Rashid and Salman, who you referenced, end up there as well.
我敢打赌，你提到的拉希德和萨尔曼也会在那里。
What makes the Rubell Collection amazing?
是什么让卢贝尔收藏令人惊叹？
I didn’t say it was amazing.
我并没有说这很神奇。
The museum in Miami is very good, I think.
我觉得迈阿密的博物馆非常好。
It is very good, I would say.
我想说，这非常好。
I haven’t spent enough time at the new Rubell, but my favorite place that no longer exists in Miami was the de la Cruz Collection, and it was both accessible and exciting.
我在新鲁贝尔的时间还不够多，但我最喜欢的地方是 de la Cruz Collection（迈阿密已不复存在），它既方便又令人兴奋。
It was not too intimidating.
这并不太吓人。
It’s such a tragedy that it closed.
它关闭真是一场悲剧。
The new branch of the Rubell — it opened with a great exhibit, and what’s in there now — it’s not very good at all.
卢贝尔的新分馆 ——它以一场精彩的展览开幕，而现在里面的东西 ——根本不是很好。
I’m, I suppose, bearish on it at the moment.
我想，我现在看空它。
One thing also: there’s a lot of bad art.
还有一件事：有很多糟糕的艺术。
This is not a comment on the Rubell, but I think any institution that shows a lot of art — there’s often a lot of bad art.
这不是对卢贝尔的评论，但我认为任何展示大量艺术的机构 —— 常常有很多糟糕的艺术。
Do you think there is what you might call an arbitrage in current art markets?
您认为当前的艺术市场存在所谓的套利吗？
Some people say, “If you love textiles, they’re really much cheaper than paintings, and you can get more aesthetic value for the dollar you spend.” You may or may not agree, but that’s just an example of a claim about an arbitrage in art markets.
有人说：“如果你喜欢纺织品，它们确实比绘画便宜得多，而且你花的钱可以得到更多的审美价值。”你可能同意也可能不同意，但这只是艺术市场套利主张的一个例子。
Though some people say drawings.
虽然有人说是图纸。
Do you see one?
你看到一个吗？
Some people say Old Masters.
有人说古代大师。
I think Tom Hill famously bought ancient bronzes to complement his contemporary art collection.
我认为汤姆·希尔（Tom Hill）以购买古代青铜器来补充他的当代艺术收藏而闻名。
The one thing I would just say about the art market right now — we’re in a mega reset as a lot of the mediocre works and mediocre galleries exit stage left, and you’re left with just higher fidelity work.
关于现在的艺术市场，我只想说一件事——我们正处于一场巨大的重置中，因为许多平庸的作品和平庸的画廊从舞台左侧退出，只剩下保真度更高的作品。
I do think this concept of what is the best value is complicated in art.
我确实认为什么是最大价值的概念在艺术中是复杂的。
I’m not sure that should matter.
我不确定这是否重要。
In the pursuit of art, if you don’t think of it as an asset class — I view it as an intellectual pursuit — the dollars are less important.
在追求艺术的过程中，如果你不将其视为一种资产类别——“我将其视为一种智力追求”——那么金钱就不那么重要了。
You’re not trying to arb the Dana Schutz drawing versus the Dana Schutz painting, which theoretically, one could do.
你并不是想拿达纳·舒茨的画作与达纳·舒茨的画作进行比较，理论上，这是可以做到的。
But maybe you can afford only one of them, right?
但也许你只能买得起其中之一，对吗？
Yes, but I think it’s also okay if you can afford none of them, if you can appreciate them, which is, obviously, the vast majority of people.
是的，但我认为，如果你买不起它们，如果你能欣赏它们，这显然是绝大多数人的，那也没关系。
That being said, I do think there’s probably a tremendous .
话虽这么说，我确实认为可能有一个巨大的。
.
。
.
。
this may be controversial, but I think there’s a whole amazing group of white male artists that are probably overlooked, and there are huge values, if you care about that, that I think will be very, very important in art, where there is a lot of value in the contemporary art market.
这可能是有争议的，但我认为有一群令人惊叹的白人男性艺术家可能被忽视了，如果你关心这一点，他们有巨大的价值，我认为这在艺术中非常非常重要，当代艺术市场有很多价值。
Now, we have some mutual friends, and I won’t name names, but believe it or not, they somewhat scorn contemporary art —
现在，我们有一些共同的朋友，我不会点名，但不管你信不信，他们都有些蔑视当代艺术 ——
I believe it.
我相信。
— although they’re highly, highly intelligent.
——尽管他们非常非常聪明。
What is it you think they’re missing?
您认为他们缺少什么？
How would you articulate that?
你会如何表达这一点？
It’s interesting.
这很有趣。
I think some of the friends you’re talking about, and not even the specific people, but if you broaden, are essentially Silicon Valley futurists.
我认为你所谈论的一些朋友，甚至不是具体的人，但如果你扩大范围，本质上都是硅谷的未来主义者。
I would say, broadly speaking, they have been both disdainful and confused about the attraction of contemporary art.
我想说，从广义上讲，他们对当代艺术的吸引力既不屑又困惑。
Some of them are even disdainful or confused — especially much younger ones — about the role of institutions and cities, as an example.
例如，他们中的一些人甚至对机构和城市的作用感到轻蔑或困惑——“尤其是年轻人”。
I’d say a couple of things.
我想说几件事。
One, not everyone needs to like everything, which is the most important thing.
第一，并不是每个人都需要喜欢一切，这是最重要的。
I feel everyone does need to like everything, but go on.
我觉得每个人都需要喜欢一切，但继续吧。
I think it’s important to channel some creative energy into something that’s more meaningful for the person.
我认为将一些创造性能量投入到对人更有意义的事情上很重要。
Now, the interesting thing, of course, you’ve seen in Silicon Valley is a lot of the OG dot-com founders have found themselves in the very deep end of contemporary art all of a sudden.
当然，有趣的是，你在硅谷看到的很多 OG 网络创始人突然发现自己陷入了当代艺术的最深处。
As they have evolved and their lifestyles have evolved — Jeff Bezos and others — went from relatively low participation in the art market to extremely significant participation in the art market.
随着他们的发展和生活方式的发展——“杰夫·贝索斯和其他人”——从对艺术市场的相对较低的参与度变成了对艺术市场的极其重要的参与度。
Maybe it’s just an evolution in a point in time.
也许这只是某个时间点的演变。
That is definitely one theory of the case.
这绝对是这种情况的一种理论。
I think a more accurate theory of the case is, if you look across all culture, over all time, art was an important part of certain aspects of society, but not all aspects of society.
我认为更准确的理论是，如果你纵观所有文化、所有时间，艺术是社会某些方面的重要组成部分，但不是社会的所有方面。
I think you’re just seeing that because you and I live also between two worlds, so we just get the magnified version of it.
我想你只是看到了这一点，因为你和我也生活在两个世界之间，所以我们只是得到它的放大版本。
On Totei, a new venture
在 Totei，一个新的冒险
You have a new project.
你有一个新项目。
It’s called Totei, Tell us about it.
它叫 Totei，告诉我们吧。
I love craft and craftsmanship.
我热爱手工艺和手工艺。
It’s one of the things I’m passionate about.
这是我热衷的事情之一。
Very simply, Totei is a magazine that celebrates craft and craftsmanship.
很简单，Totei 是一本颂扬工艺和工艺的杂志。
There’re a lot of questions there.
那里有很多问题。
A) why do you care about craft and craftsmanship?
A) 你为什么关心工艺和工艺？
B) why would you start a magazine in a completely digital age?
B) 为什么要在完全数字化的时代创办一本杂志？
I have a few theories that I wanted to exploit and that led to Totei.
我有一些想要利用的理论，这导致了 Totei 的诞生。
One is, while not everyone appreciates contemporary art, almost everyone at a high level that I know appreciates dedication and craft.
一是，虽然不是每个人都欣赏当代艺术，但据我所知，几乎每个高水平的人都欣赏奉献精神和工艺。
I think there’re just far fewer resources in exploring the art of craft, the art of dedication, the art of engagement and getting really good at something in a very broad way.
我认为，探索工艺艺术、奉献艺术、参与艺术以及以非常广泛的方式真正擅长某件事的资源要少得多。
So, I wanted to create a forum to make sure a lot of craft .
所以，我想创建一个论坛来确保很多技巧。
.
。
.
。
That’s not necessarily, but it’s not necessarily not like quilt-making in certain regions.
那不一定，但也不一定不像某些地区的被子制作。
It means stand-up comedy.
意思是单口喜剧。
It means design.
这意味着设计。
It means anything where you put in a huge amount of effort to get better to create a great product at the end.
它意味着您付出巨大努力以更好地最终创造出出色的产品。
I was thinking about how to express that.
我正在思考如何表达这一点。
I had a few ideas which we were exploring.
我有一些我们正在探索的想法。
Then I said, “We should create a magazine.
然后我说：“我们应该创办一本杂志。
We should create both a digital and physical version of a celebration of craft.” So, that’s what we started.
我们应该创建数字和实体版本的工艺庆典。”所以，这就是我们开始的。
It’s going to be a pretty serious endeavor.
这将是一项非常严肃的努力。
It’ll launch in digital format later this year and physical format in the beginning of next year.
它将在今年晚些时候推出数字格式，并于明年初推出实体格式。
Late 2025.
2025 年末。
Yes.
是的。
It will appear regularly or be —
它会定期出现或者是 —
The digital piece will appear regularly.
数字作品将定期出现。
The physical piece will probably be two to three times a year.
实体作品每年可能会出现两到三次。
It’s a pretty heavy lift to do it.
这是一个相当繁重的工作。
Of course, if you are doing a magazine on craft and craftsmanship, it better be a really good magazine, so the amount of effort we put into every issue is extremely high.
当然，如果你做一本关于工艺和工艺的杂志，最好是一本非常好的杂志，所以我们每一期投入的精力都是非常高的。
If someone just Googles T-O-T-E-I by the end of the year, it’ll be there for them.
如果有人在年底前用 Google 搜索 T-O-T-E-I，他们就会找到答案。
Yes.
是的。
You can go to totei.com now.
您现在可以访问 totei.com。
Sign up for the early versions of the newsletter.
订阅新闻通讯的早期版本。
I think it’s going to be fun.
我认为这会很有趣。
The interesting thing — as I put it out into the world, it’s super resonant with people, all sorts of people — college students, comedians, artists, investors — who take great pride in their craft.
有趣的是，当我向世界展示它时，它引起了人们的强烈共鸣，各种各样的人——大学生、喜剧演员、艺术家、投资者——他们对自己的技艺感到非常自豪。
My craft is investing.
我的手艺是投资。
I take great pride in how we do that craft.
我对我们如何制作这门手艺感到非常自豪。
Everyone feels seen when you put a spotlight on another craftsperson.
当你把聚光灯放在另一个工匠身上时，每个人都会感到被关注。
If we think about the general public, I hear a lot of pessimism about the general American public, even the educated side.
如果我们考虑一下普通公众，我会听到很多关于美国普通公众，甚至是受过教育的人的悲观情绪。
Will people read less or they know less about certain things?
人们会阅读更少的书，或者对某些事情了解得更少吗？
If you think of their artistic literacy, whether it’s in craftsmanship or contemporary painting, or just art museums in general, whatever else might be in New York City, what’s your assessment of where we’re at?
如果你想到他们的艺术素养，无论是工艺还是当代绘画，或者只是一般的艺术博物馆，无论纽约市还有什么，你对我们现在的情况有何评价？
Is it dire?
很可怕吗？
Is it great?
很棒吗？
You’re at a positive inflection point is my read of the situation.
我对目前情况的解读是，你正处于一个积极的拐点。
There’s a shocking amount of aggregate pessimism everywhere right now.
现在到处都有令人震惊的悲观情绪。
I think part of it is still aftereffects of COVID.
我认为部分原因仍然是新冠疫情的后遗症。
Part of it is, we have a complicated economic environment where there’re haves and have nots.
部分原因是，我们的经济环境很复杂，有富人也有穷人。
There’s a lot of complexity.
有很多复杂性。
It’s obviously a really turbulent time in the world, and that all feeds into, I think, some of the pessimism out there.
显然，这是世界上一个非常动荡的时期，我认为，这一切都助长了一些悲观情绪。
People are reading less.
人们读书越来越少。
They’re in fewer relationships, all of those things.
他们的人际关系越来越少，诸如此类。
I think by and large, as I look at it somewhat dispassionately, there’re huge reasons for optimism, especially as an American, where, while it is complicated, there’re a lot of great things happening here.
我认为，总的来说，当我冷静地看待它时，有很多乐观的理由，特别是作为一个美国人，虽然情况很复杂，但这里正在发生很多伟大的事情。
The reason I think we’re at a positive inflection point is, some of the ways to make it better versus just complain have started to make its way into the ether.
我认为我们正处于一个积极的拐点的原因是，一些让它变得更好而不只是抱怨的方法已经开始进入以太坊。
It’s interesting.
这很有趣。
I was at a conference recently, and there was so much doomerism about AI, as an example.
举个例子，我最近参加了一个会议，其中有很多关于人工智能的悲观论调。
But I think one of the main proximate effects is highly optimistic, increased knowledge, decrease in doing tasks that are not joyful, et cetera, so I think we’re about to see a series of innovations that drive from pessimism to optimism, or at least I hope so.
但我认为主要的直接影响之一是高度乐观、知识增加、减少做不愉快的任务等等，所以我认为我们即将看到一系列从悲观到乐观的创新，或者至少我希望如此。
Final question.
最后一个问题。
Other than craftsmanship, what is it you hope to learn about next?
除了工艺之外，您接下来还希望学习什么？
It can be a sector, a painter, a part of New York City, anything.
它可以是一个部门、一个画家、纽约市的一部分，任何东西。
What is it you wake up some Sunday morning, and it’s, “Yes, I’ve got to learn about this.”
某个周日早上，当你醒来时，你会说：“是的，我必须了解这一点。”
Oh, that’s a great question.
哦，这是一个很好的问题。
What will I learn about next?
接下来我将学到什么？
I want to spend a lot more time .
我想花更多的时间。
.
。
.This is going to be super nerdy, but digging into how — I’ve done some of this, as you know — how we can make practical policy, like understanding how the guts of things get done in local and statewide government and federal government, so we can push the ball forward.
.这将是超级书呆子，但要深入研究如何 - 我已经做了一些，如你所知 - 我们如何制定实际政策，例如了解地方和州政府以及联邦政府如何完成工作，这样我们就可以推动事情向前发展。
Going back to our Robert Moses conversation, there’s probably a lost art of making things work that I want to re-engage in, so myself as a concerned citizen, others can make things a lot better.
回到我们与罗伯特·摩西的谈话，可能有一种失落的让事情运转的艺术，我想重新参与其中，所以我自己作为一个关心此事的公民，其他人可以让事情变得更好。
That’s probably a technical boring thing that you can engage in but be very excited about.
这可能是一件技术上很无聊的事情，你可以参与但又会感到非常兴奋。
Gaurav Kapadia, thank you very much.
高拉夫·卡帕迪亚，非常感谢你。
Thank you.
谢谢。