Eric Schmidt on the Life-Changing Magic of Systematizing, Scaling, and Saying “Thanks” (Ep. 53 - Live)

As an American, I’ve always thought Americans were very, very locally focused, and even today in the world you all live in, we’re still too locally focused and not globally focused.

作为一个美国人，我一直认为美国人非常非常注重本地化，即使在今天，在你们生活的世界中，我们仍然过于注重本地化，而不是全球化。

So whatever you think you’re going to do, you may do something very different.

因此，无论您认为自己要做什么，您都可能会做一些非常不同的事情。

I just naturally liked computer science.

我天生喜欢计算机科学。

I graduated with a degree in electrical engineering, but I did none of the EE classes, so never asked me to repair anything.

我毕业时获得了电气工程学位，但我没有上过任何 EE 课程，所以从来没有要求我修理任何东西。

Is it fair to think of your career as in some sense, you’re the person who spans those two eras, the Bell Labs-PARC era of doing things, and then the tech era of manipulating information, and that your ability to bring expertise from those two areas together is what has made you a unique figure?

从某种意义上来说，你的职业生涯跨越了这两个时代，贝尔实验室-帕洛阿尔托研究中心的做事时代，然后是操纵信息的科技时代，你将这两个领域的专业知识结合在一起的能力使你成为一个独特的人物，这是否公平？

Is that a fair assessment of how you fit into the picture?

这是对你融入情况的公平评估吗？

I was lucky because when I worked at Bell Labs, I wrote a program called Lex, which is still in use today, which is disturbing, given that was 40 years ago.

我很幸运，因为当我在贝尔实验室工作时，我编写了一个名为 Lex 的程序，该程序至今仍在使用，这令人不安，因为那是 40 年前的事了。

And Bell Labs, of course, came out of a monopoly agreement around AT&T, and as part of the way the monopoly was set up, Bell Labs was funded to do interesting things.

当然，贝尔实验室是从 AT&T 的垄断协议中诞生的，作为垄断建立方式的一部分，贝尔实验室得到资助去做一些有趣的事情。

About 90 percent of what Bell Labs did was related to signal processing and telephony.

贝尔实验室大约 90% 的工作与信号处理和电话技术有关。

Remember I didn’t take those classes in college?

还记得我在大学时没有上过这些课吗？

But the 10 percent that did pure research and computer science ultimately had this enormous impact.

但从事纯粹研究和计算机科学的 10% 最终产生了巨大的影响。

Xerox PARC came out of a similar structure.

施乐帕洛阿尔托研究中心 (Xerox PARC) 也采用了类似的结构。

Xerox, at the time, was a structural monopoly, although not a legal one, because they were the only people building xerographic copiers, and so they had the ability to create these research centers.

施乐公司当时是一种结构性垄断，尽管不是合法的垄断，因为他们是唯一制造静电复印机的公司，因此他们有能力创建这些研究中心。

And during this sort of golden age of research centers, this is where a lot of American science happened because they had enough money — universities didn’t have it.

在研究中心的黄金时代，许多美国科学研究都是在这里发生的，因为他们有足够的资金 ——大学却没有。

Today, you wouldn’t create a separate lab on the hill today.

今天，你不会在山上创建一个单独的实验室。

We’ve been through this in my career, now over 40 years.

我的职业生涯至今已超过 40 年，我们也经历过这样的情况。

I’ve tried to set up these research labs and they don’t work when they’re separate.

我曾尝试建立这些研究实验室，但当它们分开时，它们就无法工作。

So at Google, when we did the same thing, what we did is, we created integrated labs that, actually — there’s not much distinction between the research part and the product development part.

因此，在谷歌，当我们做同样的事情时，我们所做的是，我们创建了综合实验室，实际上，研究部分和产品开发部分之间没有太大区别。

Indeed, the researchers and the developers work as a team.

事实上，研究人员和开发人员作为一个团队工作。

I remember one evening, Scott gave this impassioned speech that we would all stay overnight in order to get enough hardware built so that we could make the quarter.

我记得有一天晚上，斯科特发表了一篇慷慨激昂的演讲，我们都将过夜，以便建造足够的硬件，以便我们能够完成本季度的任务。

I was shocked that people actually did this.

我很震惊人们真的这么做了。

And what I realized is that charismatic leaders can get people to do stuff that they would otherwise not rationally do, but because we were a team and because we believed in our mission, right at the time — these were work stations and we were battling the man in the sense that we were battling the older generation of computers — somehow we were motivated to do this.

我意识到，有魅力的领导者可以让人们做一些他们原本不会理性地做的事情，但因为我们是一个团队，因为我们相信我们的使命，就在当时 ——这些是工作站，我们正在与人作战，就像我们在与老一代计算机作战一样——不知何故，我们有动力这样做。

That motivation works and it works today.

这种动机是有效的，而且在今天仍然有效。

And since slavery was outlawed many decades ago, as it should have been, you’re stuck with the problem that you actually need people to support you.

由于奴隶制在几十年前就被取缔了（本来应该如此），你就陷入了一个问题：你实际上需要人们支持你。

All of the great leaders I’ve worked with have not used enough praise, although they’ve dragged along people because of their unique skills and so forth.

我共事过的所有伟大领导者都没有使用足够的赞美，尽管他们因为独特的技能等而拖累了人们。

But it just seems to me that if you take a moment, and you add the preamble of “Thank you” or “I appreciate it,” or “I recognize it,” people’s hearts sing, and you get a lot more work out of them.

但在我看来，如果你花点时间，加上“谢谢”或“我很感激”或“我认识它”的序言，人们的心就会歌唱，你就会从他们身上得到更多的工作。

Frankly, let’s use a stereotype — and stereotypes are always risky — but what’s the stereotype of the 20-something male founder?

坦率地说，让我们使用刻板印象 ——而刻板印象总是有风险的—— 但是对于20多岁的男性创始人的刻板印象是什么？

You know the stereotype person I’m talking about, right?

你知道我所说的刻板印象的人，对吧？

This person needs more social skills.

这个人需要更多的社交技能。

This person needs more teaching from their mother or something about how to behave in these kinds of situations.

这个人需要从母亲那里得到更多的教导，或者了解在这种情况下如何表现。

And inevitably, they grow up and they become softer, they become more insightful, and so forth.

他们不可避免地会长大，变得更加温柔，变得更有洞察力，等等。

So early intervention from mother would help.

因此，母亲的早期干预会有帮助。

So they showed me a set of ads, and they looked pretty foolish to me.

所以他们给我看了一组广告，在我看来它们非常愚蠢。

So I said, “Well, let’s go find the finance person,” of which there was one, and the accounting system was done on QuickBooks.

所以我说，“好吧，我们去找财务人员吧”，财务人员是有的，会计系统是在 QuickBooks 上完成的。

I said, “Prove to me that people are paying for these ads,” and they did.

我说，“向我证明人们正在为这些广告付费”，他们确实这么做了。

We then did an ads conversion in the first year, which was called Project Drano, where we basically took three different ads databases, which were simple compared to today’s databases, and merged them into one.

然后，我们在第一年进行了广告转换，称为“Drano 项目”，我们基本上采用了三个不同的广告数据库（与今天的数据库相比很简单），并将它们合并为一个。

And I was terrified, absolutely terrified that the ruse that we had — because we had fixed pricing on our ads — that people would discover that our ads were not worth anything.

我很害怕，绝对害怕我们的诡计——“因为我们对广告有固定的定价”——人们会发现我们的广告一文不值。

So I organized what I called the cash restriction period, where the only thing you could do if you wanted to spend money, is you could only spend money on Friday at 10 AM, and you had to come to me to justify it, which very much shuts down spending.

所以我组织了我所谓的现金限制期，如果你想花钱，你唯一能做的就是你只能在周五上午 10 点花钱，而且你必须来找我证明其合理性，这在很大程度上限制了消费。

So we get to this conversion, we turn the thing over, and of course, we didn’t bother to build into the tools.

所以我们进行了这种转换，我们把事情翻了个底朝天，当然，我们没有费心去构建工具。

We had no metrics.

我们没有指标。

We didn’t know what was going on.

我们不知道发生了什么事。

I’m going, “Oh my God, the company is bankrupt.

我会说：“天哪，公司破产了。

My first year, I’ve done a terrible job.

第一年，我做得很糟糕。

What will the board think?” I did my best to notify everybody we were going to go kaput.

董事会会怎么想？”我尽力通知每个人我们要倒闭了。

The auction produced a price that was three times higher than the previous prices.

这次拍卖的价格比之前的价格高出了三倍。

Very interesting.

非常有趣。

So much for the cash restriction period, and the rest is history.

现金限制期就讲这么多，剩下的就都成为历史了。

So they interviewed many people, and what they would do is give them a test.

所以他们采访了很多人，他们要做的就是对他们进行测试。

It usually involved hanging out with them and going skiing with them, or something like that.

通常包括和他们一起出去玩，和他们一起去滑雪，或者类似的事情。

And they typically failed.

他们通常都会失败。

So in hiring, what happened was, we were hiring along, and we hired basically Larry and Sergei’s friends, people from Stanford.

所以在招聘方面，我们一直在招聘，我们基本上雇佣了拉里和谢尔盖的朋友，来自斯坦福大学的人。

They were super smart, somewhat disorganized kinds of people.

他们是超级聪明，但有些杂乱无章的人。

They hired a bunch of managers, and then they decided they didn’t like the managers, so they got rid of all the managers.

他们雇佣了一群经理，然后他们发现他们不喜欢这些经理，所以他们解雇了所有经理。

This is called the Disorg.

这就是所谓的 Disorg。

We then had one manager managing 120 engineers, and Larry and Sergei said, “Well, there’s no problem here.

然后我们让一名经理管理 120 名工程师，Larry 和 Sergei 说：“好吧，这里没有问题。

That means the managers cannot interfere with the engineers’ work.” That’s kind of the engineering model of the time.

这意味着经理不能干涉工程师的工作。”这就是当时的工程模型。

Eventually, we brought in management that could handle this kind of management style.

最终，我们引进了能够应对这种管理风格的管理层。

The recruiting started off as informal, but it ultimately became very, very structured.

招聘一开始是非正式的，但最终变得非常非常结构化。

We were famously focused on the school you went to and your GPA and not your experience.

众所周知，我们关注的是你就读的学校和你的 GPA，而不是你的经历。

This caused all sorts of consternation, but it produced people who were both young in a sense of inexperienced in business.

这引起了各种各样的惊愕，但也让年轻人产生了一种缺乏商业经验的感觉。

It produced people that were aggressive and ignorant of what they were doing, so they didn’t know what they were doing, but they could make mistakes.

它造就了那些咄咄逼人、对自己在做什么一无所知的人，所以他们不知道自己在做什么，但他们可能会犯错误。

Our argument was that, in a fast growing company, we need people who can pivot around whatever the new challenge is, and we weren’t convinced that the people who had experience — since this was a new field — that that experience would allow them to pivot into the new problems, so it was a reasonable business analysis.

我们的论点是，在一家快速发展的公司中，我们需要能够应对新挑战的人，而且我们不相信那些有经验的人——“因为这是一个新领域”——这些经验能让他们解决新问题，所以这是一个合理的业务分析。

We did all sorts of things.

我们做了各种各样的事情。

My favorite example is that we would interview people to death.

我最喜欢的例子是我们会采访死亡的人。

We interviewed this one gentleman sixteen times, and we couldn’t decide.

我们采访了这位先生十六次，但我们无法做出决定。

So I picked a random number, which was half, and I said, “We should have a max of eight, and if we can’t decide after eight .

所以我随机选择了一个数字，即一半，然后我说，“我们最多应该有八个，如果八个之后我们无法决定的话。

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.” We’ve since done a statistical analysis, and the answer today is four to five interviews.

”。我们做了统计分析，今天的答案是四到五次采访。

We would interview people to death.

我们会采访一些人到死。

We interviewed this one gentleman sixteen times, and we couldn’t decide.

我们采访了这位先生十六次，但我们无法做出决定。

So I picked a random number, which was half, and I said, “We should have a max of eight, and if we can’t decide after eight .

所以我随机选择了一个数字，即一半，然后我说，“我们最多应该有八个，如果八个之后我们无法决定的话。

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.” We’ve since done a statistical analysis, and the answer today is four to five interviews.

”。我们做了统计分析，今天的答案是四到五次采访。

But if you step out of your modest self for a moment — and I’m trying to write a revisionist account of Google titled “Eric Schmidt as Innovator” — you are going to describe for me in, say, two or three minutes, what you did personally that was the most innovative, how you imposed your innovative stamp on the company.

但是，如果你暂时摆脱谦虚的自我，而我正试图写一篇关于谷歌的修正主义叙述，标题为“作为创新者的埃里克·施密特”，那么你将在两到三分钟内向我描述你个人所做的最具创新性的事情，以及你如何将你的创新印记强加在公司上。

What would be your story of Eric Schmidt as Innovator within Google?

您认为埃里克·施密特 (Eric Sc​​hmidt) 作为 Google 创新者的故事是什么？

And not just the adult in the room.

不仅仅是房间里的成年人。

An example is, you have a room full of people.

举个例子，你有一个房间，里面挤满了人。

Inevitably, half the people talk, half the people don’t talk, and often the women are more likely to be dominated by the men.

不可避免的是，一半的人说话，一半的人不说话，而且女性往往更容易受到男性的支配。

Again, in general terms, in terms of interruptions and so forth.

再次，一般而言，就中断等而言。

What you want to do is, you want to basically call on somebody who’s not speaking — a typical scenario, you call on the woman who hasn’t had said anything.

你想做的是，你基本上想要拜访一个没有说话的人——一个典型的场景，你拜访那个没有说话的女人。

She will inevitably give an extraordinarily interesting and thoughtful answer.

她必然会给出一个异常有趣且深思熟虑的答案。

Then get people to respond to her, and let her speak.

然后让人们回应她，让她说话。

That kind of mechanism forces a leveling of the discussion and gets everybody on the same table.

这种机制迫使讨论变得公平，让每个人都坐在同一张桌子上。

Often in companies, if you see executives that don’t manage to build the .

通常在公司中，如果您看到高管无法构建团队。

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Things are happening so quickly, they don’t build common knowledge, things go off the rail.

事情发生得太快，没有形成常识，事情就偏离了轨道。

Market people are doing one thing; sales people are doing another.

市场人士正在做一件事；销售人员正在做另一件事。

Another thing that we did is we had a thing called 20 percent time, which was a safety valve.

我们做的另一件事是我们有一个叫做 20% 时间的东西，这是一个安全阀。

It would allow people to work on things that they thought were interesting.

它将允许人们从事他们认为有趣的事情。

Well, turns out there were a few extra credit cards in the company floating around, and random things were showing up.

事实证明，公司里有几张额外的信用卡，而且随机出现了一些东西。

This is how I ran things.

这就是我处理事情的方式。

But it’s important not to go to the person who bought the telephone booth and say, “You’re fired.” The important thing to do is take their credit card away.

但重要的是不要去找购买电话亭的人说：“你被解雇了。”重要的是拿走他们的信用卡。

Today, we are not quite as snooty as we were back then.

今天，我们不再像当年那样傲慢。

We’ve figured out better ways than even the ones I’m describing to bring in people.

我们已经找到了比我所描述的更好的吸引人才的方法。

So don’t despair if you don’t follow that exact profile.

因此，如果您没有遵循确切的配置文件，请不要失望。

But in the early days, we were quite rigorous about this.

但在早期，我们对此非常严格。

The other thing that happened, was, one day, I was talking to Larry, and I said — this is a long time ago — and I said, “Larry, we’re building glue people.” Glue people is my term for people who are very, very nice, who sit between two functions.

发生的另一件事是，有一天，我和拉里谈话，我说“这是很久以前的事了”，我说，“拉里，我们正在打造粘合人。” “胶水人”是我对那些非常非常友善、介于两个职能之间的人的术语。

You don’t need them, but everyone likes them because they carry the person’s bag, and they write memos, and so forth, but you don’t actually need them.

你不需要它们，但每个人都喜欢它们，因为它们提着人的包，它们写备忘录等等，但你实际上并不需要它们。

They make the system less efficient, if you will.

如果你愿意的话，它们会降低系统的效率。

And he said, “Well, it’s obvious.” I said “Like what?” He said, “We should just review all the offers.” And so we began a process of reviewing all the offers to make sure that we were achieving the kind of specialized skills that we thought, and we did this until the company was many thousands of people.

他说：“嗯，这是显而易见的。”我说：“比如什么？”他说：“我们应该审查所有的报价。”因此，我们开始审查所有的offer，以确保我们能够获得我们认为的专业技能，我们一直这样做，直到公司拥有数千名员工。

The simple example is, you get a big company, and you get some CEO, and they’re complaining, and I say, “Well, how many people will you hire this year?” And they go, “Well, we’re kind of flat.” That’s not the question I asked.

一个简单的例子是，你有一家大公司，有一些首席执行官，他们在抱怨，我说，“那么，你今年会雇用多少人？”他们说：“好吧，我们有点平淡了。”这不是我问的问题。

A typical American company has a turnover of about 10 percent.

典型的美国公司的营业额约为 10%。

Sometimes, it’s higher.

有时，它更高。

So if you have a 20,000-person company, you’re hiring 2,000 people, plus or minus, okay?

因此，如果您拥有一家拥有 20,000 名员工的公司，那么您将雇用 2,000 名员工，上下浮动，好吗？

That’s a lot of leverage over a few years in terms of the hiring pool, and yet the CEOs are unwilling to go in and do the surgery necessary to bring in the kind of talent to lead them to wherever they’re going in the next generation.

就招聘池而言，这在几年内具有很大的影响力，但首席执行官们却不愿意介入并进行必要的手术，以引进那种人才来带领他们到达下一代的任何地方。

The reason that we did our IPO — and I’ve written about this publicly — is that we were in the auction business, and we did more auctions than anyone else in the world by far.

我们进行首次公开​​募股 ——我已经公开写过此事—— 是因为我们从事拍卖业务，而且迄今为止我们进行的拍卖比世界上任何其他人都多。

It made no sense to us to do the traditional IPO, which is not really an auction.

对我们来说，进行传统的首次公开募股没有任何意义，因为这并不是真正的拍卖。

It’s really a placement, and it’s hand negotiated.

这实际上是一个安置，并且是手工协商的。

So from our perspective, the notion of a Vickrey auction or double blind auction, where people bid, made perfect sense.

因此，从我们的角度来看，维克里拍卖或双盲拍卖（人们竞价）的概念非常有意义。

There’s not evidence that it materially changed the outcome, but it was our way of doing it, and I’ve thought a lot about it, and I think the answer is, we would still do our own unique auction.

没有证据表明它实质性地改变了结果，但这是我们的做法，我想了很多，我认为答案是，我们仍然会进行自己独特的拍卖。

I think the reason people have never done it is, it hasn’t been sufficiently worth .

我认为人们从未这样做的原因是它还没有足够的价值。

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In other words, the gain has not been sufficiently worth to those companies, the cost of being different.

换句话说，对于这些公司来说，这种收益并不足以值得他们付出差异化的代价。

And my answer is because we didn’t use it, that we were of the age where we were more comfortable with telephones and email and that kind of stuff, and this was emerging.

我的答案是因为我们没有使用过它，我们处在一个更习惯使用电话和电子邮件之类的东西的时代，而这种情况正在出现。

And there really was a slightly younger generation that was really driving it.

确实有一个稍微年轻的一代在真正推动它。

The stuff was invented well past when I was in college.

这些东西是我上大学时发明的。

And because we didn’t collectively use it, I suspect we didn’t fully understand how to do it.

而且因为我们没有集体使用它，我怀疑我们并没有完全理解如何做到这一点。

I think we’ve remedied this.

我想我们已经解决了这个问题。

For example, today we have quite a powerful social network embedded inside of YouTube, but I think it would be fair to say that the rise of Facebook, etcetera, occurred on my watch.

例如，今天我们在 YouTube 中嵌入了一个相当强大的社交网络，但我认为可以公平地说，Facebook 等的崛起是在我的任期内发生的。

And the answer is always the same, which is that you need people’s permission to do that, and you can be sure you won’t get that permission, if you follow that reasoning.

答案总是一样的，那就是你需要得到人们的许可才能这样做，而且如果你遵循这个推理，你可以肯定你不会获得许可。

So we decided that was a pretty bright line.

所以我们认为这是一条非常明确的界限。

For example, if a tech company that were a consumer company were bundled with a hedge fund, you would have to disclose that it was being used in that context.

例如，如果一家科技公司是一家消费公司，与一家对冲基金捆绑在一起，你就必须披露它是在这种情况下使用的。

The people would go crazy.

人们会发疯的。

But the other thing that’s true — and Google was good about this — is we took the position that it was important for us to disclose everything we were doing as well as we could.

但另一件事是真实的 —— 谷歌在这方面做得很好 —— 我们的立场是，尽可能披露我们正在做的所有事情对我们来说很重要。

I’ll give you a governance argument.

我会给你一个治理论点。

In a large company, the employees are independent citizens of humanity, and if they see corruption in your leadership — in other words, if they see you doing things which are inconsistent with the values, you will be criticized.

在大公司里，员工都是独立的人类公民，如果他们看到你的领导腐败了——也就是说，如果他们看到你做了不符合价值观的事情，就会受到批评。

Now, sometimes that criticism is incorrect and sometimes it’s correct, but the important point is that if you make a mistake, you better disclose it pretty quickly for obvious reasons.

现在，有时这种批评是不正确的，有时是正确的，但重要的是，如果你犯了错误，你最好尽快披露它，原因很明显。

So, if we were to do that kind of stuff, which we are not going to do — so we’re clear — we would have to disclose it, it would have to get debated, and then we would eventually say, “What a stupid idea, why did we decide to do that in the first place?” You don’t have an option — you can’t do these things in secret, nor would you want to.

所以，如果我们要做那种我们不会做的事情 —— 所以我们很清楚 —— 我们就必须披露它，必须进行辩论，然后我们最终会说，“多么愚蠢的想法，我们为什么决定这样做？”你别无选择——你不能秘密做这些事情，你也不想这样做。

As an economist, you might want to talk to your assistant and ask them theoretical questions of economics.

作为一名经济学家，您可能想与您的助手交谈并向他们询问经济学的理论问题。

I can imagine lots of things I would like to ask.

我可以想象很多我想问的事情。

Today, sitting there and saying to your Alexa or Google Home, please turn off the lights, strikes me as kind of a low level question.

今天，坐在那里对你的 Alexa 或 Google Home 说，请关掉灯，在我看来这是一个低级问题。

There must be some much more sophisticated things we can do.

我们一定可以做一些更复杂的事情。

Many people believe that we can get to the point where you can have incredibly intelligent assistants that are on these devices, and that much of the interface will be verbal, not text.

许多人相信，我们可以达到这样的程度：您可以在这些设备上拥有令人难以置信的智能助手，并且大部分界面将是口头的，而不是文本。

I look at you all’s generation, and people .

我看看你们这一代人和人们。

.

。

.

。

I carry my computer around all day, which I’m very happy about.

我整天都带着电脑，这让我很高兴。

I used to have a computer that was immense, now I have a tiny computer.

我曾经有一台巨大的计算机，现在我有一台很小的计算机。

From your perspective, a smartphone is your computer, and you would prefer to just talk to it.

从您的角度来看，智能手机就是您的计算机，您更愿意与它交谈。

And I think the technology is finally there to be able to do that.

我认为技术终于能够做到这一点。

There have been many accomplishments that have surprised me.

有很多成就让我感到惊讶。

The quality of image recognition and voice recognition that we have today, I thought would be unachievable in my lifetime.

我们今天所拥有的图像识别和语音识别的质量，我认为在我的有生之年是无法实现的。

Those are phenomenal gains.

这些都是惊人的收获。

On things under- and overrated

关于被低估和高估的事情

Now, in all of these discussions, there’s a segment in the middle called overrated versus underrated.

现在，在所有这些讨论中，中间有一个部分称为高估与低估。

I’ll toss out some ideas or things, and you tell me what you think of them, if they’re overrated or underrated.

我会提出一些想法或事情，你告诉我你对它们的看法，如果它们被高估或低估。

Of course, feel free to pass on any of them.

当然，请随意传递其中任何一个。

Our first one, Antarctica.

我们的第一个目的地是南极洲。

I think the most interesting stuff that’s going on are the beginning of execution on top of blockchain, the most obvious example being the capability of Ethereum.

我认为正在发生的最有趣的事情是在区块链之上执行的开始，最明显的例子是以太坊的功能。

And if Ethereum can manage to figure out a way to do global synchronization of that activity, that’s a pretty powerful platform.

如果以太坊能够找到一种方法来实现该活动的全球同步，那么这将是一个非常强大的平台。

That’s a really new invention.

这真是一项新发明。

Effective altruism as a movement, that people should give away their money using quite rational standards, which can be derived by reason, using economics and philosophy?

有效的利他主义作为一种运动，人们应该使用相当理性的标准来捐赠他们的钱，这些标准可以通过理性、使用经济学和哲学来推导出来？

We have a subsidiary called Calico, and one of the things they work on is aging, and they put up a chart of how long people live and what they die from, and it’s stunningly sobering.

我们有一家名为 Calico 的子公司，他们的工作之一就是老龄化，他们制作了一张图表，显示人们的寿命和死亡原因，这令人震惊。

Everyone here is alive today — figure it out and make sure you use that opportunity to your best and serve the world with it.

今天这里的每个人都还活着 — 弄清楚并确保你充分利用这个机会并用它服务世界。

With respect to economic reason and rationalism, most of the stuff that’s not business is not very well managed.

就经济理性和理性主义而言，大多数非商业的东西都没有得到很好的管理。

So as a general rule, broadly speaking, health care, education, governments, philanthropies — they’re not well run compared to businesses.

因此，一般来说，医疗保健、教育、政府、慈善机构——与企业相比，它们的运营状况不佳。

Surely, systems that include measurement criteria, objectives, Google uses something called OKRs.

当然，在包含衡量标准、目标的系统中，谷歌使用了一种称为 OKR 的东西。

The ability to measure things and outcomes is now so much better.

现在衡量事物和结果的能力好多了。

Give your money and give your time to groups that actually can have an impact, and that measurable impact.

把你的钱和时间奉献给那些真正能够产生影响、并且是可衡量的影响的团体。

People are constantly asking me to do something for them, and the problem that I have is, show me what the outcome is.

人们不断地要求我为他们做点什么，而我面临的问题是，告诉我结果是什么。

And it’s an emotional pitch, it’s a marketing pitch, and everybody, including me, is subject to marketing, and I would say that’s a marketing pitch.

这是一种情感宣传，这是一种营销宣传，每个人，包括我，都受到营销的影响，我想说这是一种营销宣传。

Tell me what you’re going to accomplish, tell me the probability, and tell me how you’re going to get there, and then I’ll participate.

告诉我你要完成什么，告诉我概率，并告诉我你将如何实现目标，然后我就会参与。

Your view on the Cuban economy.

您对古巴经济的看法。

Is it going to take off?

它要起飞了吗？

Or is it stuck with most of the other Caribbean economies, plus the heritage of communism and socialism?

或者它是否受困于大多数其他加勒比经济体，加上共产主义和社会主义的遗产？

It’s quite striking to be in a country where the kind of debate and bitching and complaining, and so forth and so on, does not seem to occur.

令人惊讶的是，在一个似乎没有发生这种辩论、抱怨和抱怨等等的国家。

Or if it occurs, it’s highly, highly suppressed.

或者即使它发生了，它也会被高度、高度压制。

And that’s the thing I took away from it.

这就是我从中得到的东西。

Now having said that, I also took away the fact that North Korea is very poor.

话虽如此，我也排除了朝鲜非常贫穷的事实。

Again, one of the vestiges of communism and socialism and so forth, is the economies aren’t very good and the people really suffer.

再说一遍，共产主义和社会主义等的残余之一是经济不太好，人民确实在受苦。

And so, I came away with great respect for the people and concern for the ability of such a strong-minded central state to keep people in such buckets.

因此，我带着对人民的极大尊重和对这样一个意志坚强的中央政府将人民留在这样的水桶里的能力的担忧离开了。

I don’t want people to be focused on the wrong incentives.

我不希望人们关注错误的激励措施。

I want them to be focused on the right incentives, which is to change the world, have an impact, have scale, deliver great products, serve the customers.

我希望他们专注于正确的激励措施，即改变世界、产生影响、形成规模、提供优质产品、服务客户。

So what I worry about is that, in companies where you have misalignment between shareholder interests, hedge funds, short-term interest, short-term owners, I’d rather have long-term shareholders in corporations.

所以我担心的是，在股东利益、对冲基金、短期利益、短期所有者之间存在不一致的公司中，我宁愿在公司中拥有长期股东。

I think it would produce better governance.

我认为这会产生更好的治理。

And most of their owners won’t reward them for taking risk, even if risk is the right thing for them to take.

大多数主人不会因为他们承担风险而奖励他们，即使风险对他们来说是正确的事情。

And that’s why, ultimately, you get sort of sheepish leadership as opposed to aggressive leadership.

这就是为什么最终你会得到一种羞怯的领导力，而不是积极进取的领导力。

One of the great things about Google, is, because we have a two-class system — now three-class system — we feel somewhat insulated from that, although I can tell you even then, the share price to our employees matters.

谷歌的一大优点是，因为我们有两级制度——现在是三级制度——我们感觉有点与此隔绝，尽管我什至可以告诉你，股价对我们的员工来说很重要。

We give options, people pay a lot of attention to these things.

我们提供选择，人们非常关注这些事情。

So you use the right term, which is to splinter.

所以你用了正确的术语，那就是分裂。

I think the most likely scenario now is not splintering but rather a bifurcation into a Chinese-led Internet and a non-Chinese-led Internet, presumably led by America.

我认为现在最有可能出现的情况不是分裂，而是分裂成中国主导的互联网和非中国主导的互联网（大概由美国主导）。

If you look in China — I was just there — the scale of the companies that are being built, the services that are being built, the wealth that has been created is phenomenal.

如果你看看中国 ——“我就在那里”—— 正在建立的公司的规模、正在建立的服务、已经创造的财富都是惊人的。

The Chinese Internet is a greater percentage of the GDP of China, which is a big number, than the same percentage in the United States, which is also a big number.

中国互联网在中国GDP中所占的比例是一个很大的数字，而美国同样的比例也是一个很大的数字。

So, if you think of China as like, “Oh, yeah, you’re having good with Internet,” you’re missing the point.

所以，如果你认为中国是“哦，是的，你的互联网发展得很好”，那你就没有抓住重点。

Globalization means they get to play too.

全球化意味着他们也能参与其中。

And I think you’re going to see a fantastic leadership in products and services from China, and there’s a real danger that, along with those fantastic products and services, comes a different leadership regime from the government, which is censorship and controls and limits and so forth.

我认为你会看到中国在产品和服务方面具有出色的领导力，但真正的危险是，除了这些出色的产品和服务之外，还有来自政府的不同领导体制，包括审查、控制和限制等等。

And if you look at the way the BRI works, which is their Belt and Road Initiative — sort of 60-ish countries — it’s perfectly possible that those countries will begin to take on the infrastructure that China has as well, with some loss of freedom.

如果你看看“一带一路”的运作方式，即他们的“一带一路”倡议——“大约有 60 个国家”——那么这些国家很可能会开始采用中国也拥有的基础设施，但会失去一些自由。

I’m worried that — let’s see if I can say it right — I’m worried that the sum of the way social media works is organized around some human weaknesses, not human strengths.

我担心 ——“让我们看看我是否能说对”—— 我担心社交媒体的运作方式总体上是围绕着人类的弱点而不是人类的优势而组织的。

I’m worried that the sum of the way social media works is organized around some human weaknesses, not human strengths.

我担心社交媒体的运作方式总体上是围绕人类的弱点而不是人类的优势而组织的。

I’ll give you an example.

我给你举个例子。

There’s evidence that, if you’re shown a fake video, and you’re told it’s fake, you can’t eliminate that memory from your brain — it’s a human thing.

有证据表明，如果你看到一段假视频，并且被告知它是假的，你就无法从你的大脑中消除该记忆 ——这是人类的事情。

So if that’s true, then eventually, some startup will figure out a way to exploit that without necessarily the best societal outcomes.

因此，如果这是真的，那么最终，一些初创公司将找到一种利用这一点的方法，而不一定会产生最好的社会成果。

So, what I worry about is that the structure that we have now in the Internet allows an individual crazy person to be amplified, and there are many, many examples of this that occurred in 2016.

所以，我担心的是，我们现在互联网的结构允许个体疯狂的人被放大，2016年发生的这样的例子有很多很多。

Perhaps we’ll see this again in our election year in 2018.

也许我们会在 2018 年选举年再次看到这种情况。

But the important point is, crazy people always existed, but now we can sort them and hear them at a level and an amplification — especially if they serve someone else’s business interests — that’s not good.

但重要的一点是，疯狂的人一直存在，但现在我们可以对他们进行分类，并在一定程度上和放大的程度上听到他们的声音——尤其是如果他们为别人的商业利益服务——那就不好了。

We’ve known for a long time that disinformation would be a good business for some businesses.

我们很早就知道，虚假信息对于某些企业来说是一笔好生意。

So I worry that the sum of people who have special interests, which are governments, foreign governments, special interests of one kind or another, lobbyists, and so forth, will be able to create an environment where people are not able to distinguish between legitimate individual speech and marketing speech, in the sense of stuff that’s being sold to them or peddled to them by some foreign power.

因此，我担心拥有特殊利益的人们的总和，包括政府、外国政府、某种特殊利益、游说者等等，将能够创造一种环境，使人们无法区分合法的个人言论和营销言论，即某些外国势力向他们出售或兜售的东西。

It gets much worse with AI because you can imagine AI subtly learning what your preferences are and then learning how to manipulate you.

人工智能的情况会变得更糟，因为你可以想象人工智能巧妙地了解你的偏好，然后学习如何操纵你。

This again is a theoretical scenario.

这又是一个理论场景。

I’ve thought a lot about it, and I’m strongly in favor of free speech for humans.

我想了很多，并且我强烈支持人类的言论自由。

It makes sense, right?

这是有道理的，对吧？

But I think we have to deal, as a society, with this question of how much of an amplifier do you want to give to people who are truly insane?

但我认为，作为一个社会，我们必须解决这样一个问题：你想为真正疯狂的人提供多少放大器？

Is the success of team building and the ideological conformity two sides of the same coin, and if you have one, you get the other?

团队建设的成功和意识形态的整合是同一枚硬币的两个方面，如果你有一个，你就会得到另一个吗？

Or do you think there’s not excessive ideological conformity?

或者你认为意识形态上没有过度的整合？

Or is ideological conformity a separate problem that can just be peeled off and solve it on its own, without breaking down the team-building culture?

或者意识形态整合是一个单独的问题，可以单独解决，而不破坏团队建设文化？

Do you see what I’m asking?

你明白我在问什么吗？

If you look at the quadrants of combinations, that percentage is the smallest percentage of the demographic of the United States.

如果您查看组合的象限，您会发现该百分比是美国人口中最小的百分比。

It’s not the largest.

这还不是最大的。

If you spend all day in tech, you assume that everyone else is like you, and I suspect this is true in the other gatherings, as well.

如果你整天都在科技领域，你会认为其他人都和你一样，我怀疑在其他聚会中也是如此。

There’s this sort of selection bias where you select your friends, and you all agree with the same thing.

当你选择你的朋友时，就会存在这种选择偏见，而你们都同意同样的事情。

So I think there is a uniformity in some values along the lines that I just described, with some reasonable variation among them.

因此，我认为一些价值观与我刚才描述的一致，但其中也存在一些合理的变化。

I don’t believe that that is necessarily a bad thing because, ultimately, teams have to work together.

我认为这不一定是一件坏事，因为最终，团队必须共同努力。

They have to have a common belief, and they produce amazing outcomes.

他们必须有共同的信念，才能产生惊人的成果。

Obviously, a successful tech company is not going to do that.

显然，一家成功的科技公司不会这样做。

They would wreck their franchise.

他们会破坏他们的特许经营权。

A way of rephrasing your question would be, you have historic data in a company that’s in big trouble.

重新表述你的问题的一种方式是，你有一家陷入大麻烦的公司的历史数据。

Should there be some regulation?

是否应该有一些监管？

And I’m assuming that whoever would purchase that company would want to respect the value of that information, which includes the restrictions on it.

我假设无论谁购买该公司都会希望尊重该信息的价值，其中包括对其的限制。

So I think the scenario where somehow you have a bankrupt company, you have historic data, and somehow they just do something horrific — there’s no economic reason why that would occur.

所以我认为，如果你有一家破产的公司，你有历史数据，但不知何故他们只是做了一些可怕的事情——没有任何经济原因会发生这种情况。

What he’s been doing is, he first assembled all of the new ideas about cities, and everyone has lists of complaints about cities a mile long, right?

他一直在做的是，他首先汇集了所有关于城市的新想法，每个人都有一英里长的对城市的抱怨清单，对吗？

The traffic is bad, the air is bad, I can’t get a taxi, Uber doesn’t work here.

交通很糟糕，空气也很糟糕，我打不到出租车，优步在这里也不起作用。

There’s a long list of people’s complaints about cities.

人们对城市的抱怨有一长串。

They’re not safe, the education system isn’t strong enough.

他们不安全，教育系统不够强大。

The idea is to come up with urban settings where you can address a multiplicity of those.

我们的想法是设计出可以解决多种问题的城市环境。

Another issue is housing costs are too high.

另一个问题是住房成本太高。

Can we get the housing cost down?

住房成本能降下来吗？

We are doing a process of thinking through that, working with the friendliest and most helpful, if you will, government regulatory body that you can imagine, and it still take years.

我们正在思考这个问题，与最友好、最有帮助的政府监管机构（如果你愿意的话）合作，你可以想象，这仍然需要数年时间。

It takes years.

这需要数年时间。

The model we’ve chosen is a consensus-building one, and I think you’ll see some interesting outcomes.

我们选择的模型是一种建立共识的模型，我认为您会看到一些有趣的结果。

The most interesting thing about city building is city building is extremely rare.

城市建设最有趣的一点是城市建设极其罕见。

Even in cities where they go bankrupt or they get in big trouble, it’s almost impossible to change the planning assumptions about a city because of the way in which the human incentives and all of the very special interest groups that have locked themselves into a state.

即使在破产或陷入大麻烦的城市中，也几乎不可能改变城市的规划假设，因为人类的激励措施和所有非常特殊的利益集团都将自己锁定在国家之中。

So we won’t really see innovation in cities unless we’re willing to exempt from some rules or build completely new cities.

因此，除非我们愿意免除某些规则或建造全新的城市，否则我们不会真正看到城市的创新。

You are seeing new cities built in China and in Saudi Arabia and maybe in a few other countries, and we’ll see how that goes.

你会看到中国和沙特阿拉伯以及其他一些国家建造了新的城市，我们将看看情况如何。

There is a solution for this, which is to build skyscrapers in selected areas.

对此有一个解决方案，那就是在选定的区域建造摩天大楼。

That’s how other cities have done it.

其他城市也是这么做的。

For all sorts of reasons, the Bay Area has not allowed that.

由于种种原因，湾区不允许这样做。

But if you look at New York — the way New York has adapted itself over the over 100 years, is it built on very small parts of land, high, tall residential towers of one kind or another.

但如果你看看纽约——一百多年来纽约适应自身的方式，它是建在很小的土地上，还是建在这样或那样的高高的住宅楼上。

The Bay Area needs to solve its housing crisis because the Bay Area is not going to become less desirable.

湾区需要解决住房危机，因为湾区不会变得不那么受欢迎。

And it’s really discriminating and really hurting an awful lot of people.

这确实是一种歧视，并且伤害了很多人。

Skyscrapers are one.

摩天大楼就是其中之一。

There are other scenarios.

还有其他场景。

For example, there are ways in which you build very dense, low number of floors housing — which are dense and relatively small — in urban settings.

例如，可以通过多种方式在城市环境中建造非常密集、低楼层的住房——“密集且相对较小”。

And there are planners to that effect.

并且有为此目的的规划者。

The Bay Area needs to decide.

湾区需要做出决定。

But the current situation where any proposals get blocked is not good because the growth is not going to slow down.

但目前任何提案都被阻止的情况并不好，因为增长不会放缓。

So, I work hard to hear the pitches.

所以，我努力听音调。

For example, I’ll sit through these life sciences pitches, and I really don’t have a feel for it.

例如，我会坐下来听完这些生命科学演讲，但我真的没有任何感觉。

I don’t really understand the claims, but I can at least draw the map of where everybody is.

我不太明白这些说法，但我至少可以画出每个人都在哪里的地图。

So my general advice is try to draw a map in technology of where the activity is.

所以我的一般建议是尝试用技术来绘制活动地点的地图。

I’ll give you an example.

我给你举个例子。

What’s the thing that’s going to explode in the next 10 years in a good way, explosion?

未来10年，什么东西会以一种好的方式爆炸，爆炸？

Sensors.

传感器。

Sensors, every conceivable kind of sensors.

传感器，各种可以想象到的传感器。

Why?

为什么？

Well, you already have Android phones, iPhones — there’s a huge number of sensors right there.

好吧，你已经有了 Android 手机、iPhone——那里有大量的传感器。

You already have very inexpensive cameras.

您已经拥有非常便宜的相机。

You have incredible connectivity now.

您现在拥有令人难以置信的连接性。

There’s every reason to think that every conceivable kind of sensor — in a good way of sensor — can become available.

我们有充分的理由认为，每一种可以想象到的传感器————以一种好的传感器方式————都可以实现。

What kind of businesses can you build on top of that?

在此基础上您可以建立什么样的业务？

What problems that the world has can you solve by virtue of that?

世界上有什么问题可以用它来解决？

My point is, as a technological matter, the world .

我的观点是，从技术角度来看，世界。

.

。

.

。

If you think about 20 or 30 years from now, you can be sure that we — and hopefully we’re all alive, but more importantly, our children and our grandchildren — will be facing lots of governance problems: the religious conflicts, and whether the Senate and the House should do A or B, and whether people are happy with the president, and on and on and on, and the Chinese, and so forth.

如果你想想20年或30年后，你可以肯定，我们——希望我们都还活着，但更重要的是，我们的子孙——将面临许多治理问题：宗教冲突，参议院和众议院应该做A还是B，以及人们是否对总统满意，等等，还有中国人，等等。

What will be different is it will have incredible information on wired and wireless networks, sensors, and databases, and tools which will help us make decisions.

不同的是，它将拥有有关有线和无线网络、传感器、数据库以及帮助我​​们做出决策的工具的令人难以置信的信息。

Human lifespans, on average, have been increasing for many, many reasons, starting with antibiotics, better water, and so forth, and now there is an explosion in later-life medical care and around cancer and heart and so forth.

人类的平均寿命一直在增长，原因有很多很多，首先是抗生素、更好的水等等，现在晚年医疗以及癌症和心脏病等方面的医疗保健呈爆炸式增长。

I was talking to my doctor, and he said, “It used to be that people just sort of died, and now you have to work with them.” So you better, for example, expect to have a daily or a weekly physical therapy thing to keep your muscles going, take your quarter aspirin, all that kind of stuff.

我正在和我的医生交谈，他说：“过去人们只是死了，现在你必须与他们一起工作。”因此，例如，您最好期望每天或每周进行一次物理治疗，以保持肌肉运转，服用四分之一的阿司匹林，诸如此类的东西。

Remember these are averages, but remember that even if we could make the average life span five or ten years longer across the global cohort, that’s a huge increase in the number of people and their productivity.

请记住，这些只是平均值，但请记住，即使我们可以使全球人群的平均寿命延长五到十年，这也意味着人口数量及其生产力的巨大增长。

We face the inverse going forward.

未来我们将面临相反的情况。

So I’m really glad to look at an audience of people who will be working very hard to fund my retirement.

因此，我真的很高兴看到一群为我的退休生活而努力工作的人。

And there are so many people like me, that you’re going to have to work even harder, right?

而且像我这样的人还有很多，你一定要更加努力吧？

And that drives a lot of the economics around productivity.

这推动了很多围绕生产力的经济学。

It’s why, for example, AI systems will make you more productive and not cause you to lose your jobs.

例如，这就是为什么人工智能系统会提高你的工作效率，而不会让你失业。

That’s a way to understand that.

这是理解这一点的一种方式。

With respect to the middle-class wages, I would argue that in many cases they’re missed opportunities to apply technology to these industries.

关于中产阶级的工资，我认为在很多情况下他们错过了将技术应用于这些行业的机会。

An example would be that, if we use technology to make cars faster, cheaper, more efficient, and so forth and so on, they would cost less or at least be easier to manufacture.

一个例子是，如果我们使用技术来制造汽车更快、更便宜、更高效等等，那么它们的成本就会更低，或者至少更容易制造。

So I’m all about applying technology to nontechnology sectors to improve their productivity.

因此，我致力于将技术应用于非技术领域，以提高其生产力。

I’m convinced that a small number of software people applied to each of these industries — looking at how they operate, redesigning the way their business processes work — will make a huge difference.

我相信，将少数软件人员应用于每个行业 ——观察它们的运作方式，重新设计其业务流程的工作方式——将会产生巨大的影响。

Indeed, Google has a set of businesses that are trying to do that across a set of industries.

事实上，谷歌有一系列业务正在尝试跨多个行业实现这一目标。

On the Eric Schmidt production function

关于埃里克·施密特生产函数

My father taught me that the best way to get people to do stuff is to have it be their idea.

我的父亲告诉我，让人们做事的最好方法就是让他们有想法。

So if you can find a way that your idea is also their idea, then you can go back to working on the people whose idea you don’t agree with.

因此，如果你能找到一种方法，让你的想法也是他们的想法，那么你就可以回去继续研究那些你不同意的人的想法。

The ideal manager doesn’t ever have to do anything because all the people who they work with are self-functioning, they’re self-organizing.

理想的管理者不需要做任何事情，因为所有与他们一起工作的人都是自我运作、自我组织的。

It’s so obvious what they should do and they love it so much, they never have any problem.

他们应该做什么是非常明显的，而且他们非常喜欢它，他们从来没有任何问题。

They solve all their problems.

他们解决了所有的问题。

Of course, that’s not how it really works, but if you can’t motivate people around that, then you’re not really giving them an opportunity to be successful.

当然，事实并非如此，但如果你不能围绕这一点激励人们，那么你就没有真正为他们提供成功的机会。

The reality is that first, you should read multiple stuff, and second, I’m careful now to look at the source of information because it’s so easy for people to mislead you and look like they’re legit, but in fact they’re not.

现实情况是，首先，你应该阅读多种内容，其次，我现在很小心地查看信息来源，因为人们很容易误导你，让你看起来像是合法的，但实际上并非如此。

Let’s say I’m a young person, and I’m coming up in the tech world, and I say to you, “I’d like to be the next Eric Schmidt.” And they cannot obviously copy your career or follow in exactly the same footsteps, but they want to be a next generation analogue of what you’ve done.

假设我是一个年轻人，即将进入科技界，我对你说，“我想成为下一个埃里克·施密特。”他们显然无法复制你的职业生涯或追随完全相同的脚步，但他们希望成为你所做的下一代类似物。

What advice would you give to that person?

你会给那个人什么建议？

I had the benefit of being early in the computer industry, so that’s like super luck.

我的优势是很早就进入了计算机行业，所以这就像超级幸运。

But my real opportunity is, I look at each of these stages, I was picked early, I worked with smart people, people took a risk on me, and I learned.

但我真正的机会是，我审视了每个阶段，我很早就被选中，我与聪明的人一起工作，人们为我承担了风险，我学到了。

I want to make sure that you all hear that.

我想确保你们都听到了。

So today, when, as entrepreneurs, remember that the quality of the people that you work with — the people you hire, the people on your board, and so forth — will determine an awful lot of your outcome.

因此，今天，作为企业家，请记住，与你共事的人的素质——“你雇用的人、董事会成员等等”——将在很大程度上决定你的结果。

Today, as entrepreneurs, remember that the quality of the people that you work with — the people you hire, the people on your board, and so forth — will determine an awful lot of your outcome.

今天，作为企业家，请记住，与你一起工作的人的素质——你雇用的人、董事会成员等等——将决定你的很多结果。

In the media, there’s this fascination with founders and how brilliant they are, but corporate success is a team sport.

在媒体上，人们对创始人及其才华横溢很着迷，但企业的成功是一项团队运动。

As much as we love and identify our founders, it is the people who work for them every day, who worked the 16 hours a day, and they did so because they loved the founders, they loved the vision of the company, and they cared a great deal about that.

尽管我们热爱并认同我们的创始人，但每天为他们工作的人，每天工作 16 个小时，他们这样做是因为他们热爱创始人，热爱公司的愿景，并且非常关心这一点。

Then, when they went home to see their families, exhausted, they said, “I was proud to go to work, and I was proud to do this.” Those are the people you want to associate with because those are the people that will change the world.

然后，当他们筋疲力尽地回家看望家人时，他们说：“我很自豪能够去工作，我也很自豪能做到这一点。”这些是你想与之交往的人，因为他们将改变世界。