Ed Luce on the Retreat of Western Liberalism (BONUS)

Having a taste for the esoteric, I'd like to start with a question.

有点深奥的味道，我想从一个问题开始。

If we go back to the 1680s and James II takes the throne, then, William of Orange comes over from what we now call the Netherlands and pushes him out ‑‑ was that a liberal development or an illiberal development?

如果我们回到1680年代，詹姆斯二世登基，那么，奥兰治的威廉从我们现在所说的荷兰过来，把他赶了出来——这是自由主义的发展还是非自由主义的发展？

In retrospect, given the fact that this is very much the Protestant fundamentalist, the Battle of the Boyne, the victory of the Orange forces, William of Orange.

回想起来，考虑到这在很大程度上是新教原教旨主义的博因河战役，是橙色军队奥兰治威廉的胜利。

In retrospect, I think it's being celebrated in a pretty illiberal manner.

回想起来，我认为庆祝活动的方式相当不自由。

Of course, that's very germane right now in Britain, given that Theresa May is trying to form a government in which the DUP, the Ulster Unionist Party are going to make up the difference between being a minority government and majority government.

当然，这在英国现在是非常重要的，因为特蕾莎·梅正试图组建一个由北爱尔兰民主统一党（DUP）和阿尔斯特统一党（Ulster Unionist Party）组成的政府，以弥补少数政府和多数政府之间的差距。

It depends which bit of history you're looking at it from is my answer.

我的回答取决于你从哪一段历史来看。

Foreign forces, from what we now call the European Union, invade your country and depose him by force.

来自我们现在所说的欧盟的外国军队入侵你们的国家并以武力废黜他。

This leads eventually to a number of wars fought by the British, arguably, an age of imperialism, higher levels of public credit, state building, yes, larger markets.

这最终导致了英国发动的一系列战争，可以说，这是一个帝国主义时代，更高水平的公共信用，国家建设，是的，更大的市场。

Even to this day, do we know how liberal a development that was?

直到今天，我们还知道当时的发展有多么自由吗？

You're right.

你说得对。

You could argue that the Glorious Revolution of 1688 is the beginning of the real foundations of imperial Britain, which is not exactly a term, “imperialism,” you associate with liberalism.

你可能会说，1688 年的光荣革命是英国帝国真正基础的开始，这并不完全是一个与自由主义联系在一起的术语“帝国主义”。

I, although, would focus on habeas corpus, on the right to try by jury, and all the various things that came with the Glorious Revolution.

不过，我会关注人身保护令、陪审团审判的权利，以及光荣革命带来的所有各种事情。

And with the Dutch, a more‑evolved version of liberalism that existed in the Netherlands at that point, having rebelled against the Spanish empire, and having had their own industrial revolution and their own enlightenment way before the English one.

对于荷兰人来说，当时荷兰存在着一种更为进化的自由主义版本，它反抗西班牙帝国，并且在英国之前就已经有了自己的工业革命和启蒙运动。

I would minimize the foreign king taking over England bit and stress the fact that this was a king that understood that the divine right of kings was over.

我会尽量减少外国国王接管英格兰的情况，并强调这样一个事实：这位国王明白国王的神圣权利已经结束。

It was dead, and the Stuarts didn't really understand that.

它已经死了，而斯图亚特王朝并没有真正理解这一点。

He thought it was referring to the French protests on the Left Bank against de Gaulle, of 1968.

他认为这指的是 1968 年法国左岸反对戴高乐的抗议活动。

He was right.

他是对的。

It was too early to tell.

现在说还为时过早。

You need some time, but some things you don't really need much time with.

你需要一些时间，但有些事情你并不需要太多时间。

I don't think that Brexit is going to stand the test of time.

我认为英国脱欧不会经受住时间的考验。

I can argue that, if you wish me to, that judgment pretty confidently, I don't think the election of Trump is going to retrospectively be seen as a liberal moment in American history, in the non‑American definition of liberalism.

我可以相当自信地说，如果你希望我这么说的话，我认为特朗普的当选不会被回顾性地视为美国历史上、非美国自由主义定义中的一个自由主义时刻。

If you recall George W.

如果你还记得乔治·W.

Bush's second term, when there was all kinds of projecting Bush's place in history, and the analogy was made with Harry Truman.

布什的第二个任期，当时有各种各样的预测布什在历史上的地位，并与哈里·杜鲁门进行了类比。

Truman was really unpopular when he left office.

杜鲁门卸任时确实不受欢迎。

So is Bush, and they're both tough on national security.

布什也是如此，他们在国家安全问题上都采取强硬态度。

Bush is going to look like Truman.

布什将看起来像杜鲁门。

It was pretty easy, real time, to dispense with that argument.

实时地消除这种争论是非常容易的。

I would say it's the first real election where voting by class has essentially fallen away.

我想说，这是第一次真正的选举，按阶级投票基本上已经消失。

You even have Kensington in London going Labour for the first time since 1974.

伦敦的 Kensington 甚至自 1974 年以来首次加入工党。

Voting is now much more by age.

现在投票更多地是按年龄划分的。

You've more female representatives than ever before.

你们的女性代表比以往任何时候都多。

You've 15 Muslims elected, 7 of those being female.

15 名穆斯林当选，其中 7 名是女性。

More LGBT individuals.

更多 LGBT 人士。

Maybe the new liberalism is reflected by that kind of elevation.

也许新自由主义就是通过这种提升来体现的。

Then on top of that, the election definitely thwarted Scottish independence.

最重要的是，这次选举肯定阻碍了苏格兰独立。

It probably helped a soft border for Ireland.

这可能有助于爱尔兰的软边界。

We hope it's helping a soft Brexit.

我们希望这有助于软脱欧。

No Corbyn, no UKIP.

没有科尔宾，就没有英国独立党。

Wasn't it exactly the vote we needed and the most liberal outcome you could have imagined, at least relative to all the initial constraints?

这难道不是我们所需要的投票，也是你能想象到的最自由的结果，至少相对于所有最初的限制而言？

Or not?

或不？

One is voter participation.

一是选民参与。

We can no longer make easy jokes about Millennials.

我们不能再轻易拿千禧一代开玩笑。

They did come out and vote this time.

这次他们确实出来投票了。

They learned from the mistake of Brexit, of not voting, of being complacent.

他们从英国脱欧、不投票和自满的错误中吸取了教训。

And the SNP being really heavily cut back.

苏格兰民族党确实被大幅削减。

A lot of losses there in Scotland for Scottish nationalism, which I also see as a very positive development.

苏格兰民族主义在苏格兰造成了很多损失，我也认为这是一个非常积极的发展。

But this is one of those elections that could change over time.

但这是可能随着时间而改变的选举之一。

Our perception of it could change, because, will this result in a soft Brexit?

我们对此的看法可能会改变，因为这会导致软脱欧吗？

Isn't soft Brexit an oxymoron?

软脱欧不是矛盾吗？

The idea now that the same pro‑Remain, pro‑business, pro‑prosperity option is that Britain remains a part of the single European market but not of the EU ‑‑ and therefore pays a hundred‑billion‑Euro divorce cost ‑‑ has no say over future EU trade deals, over EU regulation, over movements of people, over any EU policies and yet pays for the privilege.

现在的想法是，同样的支持留欧、支持商业、支持繁荣的选择是，英国仍然是欧洲单一市场的一部分，但不是欧盟的一部分——因此要支付千亿欧元的离婚成本——对未来的欧盟贸易协议、欧盟监管、人员流动、任何欧盟政策没有发言权，但却为这种特权付出了代价。

It's pretty hard to argue that that's an improvement from the pre‑Brexit situation.

很难说这比英国脱欧前的情况有所改善。

It's a loss of sovereignty, not a gain of sovereignty.

这是主权的丧失，而不是主权的获得。

For certain it's a serious loss of economic clout.

可以肯定的是，这是经济影响力的严重损失。

But they covered all the ground that UKIP occupied.

但它们覆盖了英国独立党占领的所有土地。

Richard Hofstadter, the rightly celebrated American political scientist, said third parties are like bees.

美国著名政治学家理查德·霍夫施塔特 (Richard Hofstadter) 表示，第三方就像蜜蜂。

They sting and then they die.

它们蜇人然后就死了。

UKIP has stung.

英国独立党已经刺痛了。

Brexit happened, and the Conservative Party has now basically occupied UKIP's ground.

英国脱欧发生了，保守党现在基本占领了英国独立党的阵地。

There's just no way you can describe that as a positive development, whether we're hung up on the word liberal or not.

无论我们是否执着于“自由主义”这个词，你都无法将其描述为积极的发展。

There's a movement back but it seems that gain has been captured permanently.

出现了回落，但似乎收益已被永久捕获。

It's not that foreigners will en masse be driven out.

并不是外国人会被集体驱逐。

Some people from the EU may be sent back home, but even that seems to be in more doubt now.

一些来自欧盟的人可能会被遣送回国，但即便如此，现在似乎也更加令人怀疑。

Isn't it just a slight retreat of liberalism after it won far greater gains than we might have rationally expected?

这难道不是自由主义在取得远超我们理性预期的成果之后的轻微退却吗？

I said, “No, no, this should be ‘The Retreat.'” Retreat implies the possibility of regrouping.

我说：“不，不，这应该是‘撤退’。”撤退意味着重新组合的可能性。

I don't think there's a collapse going on here.

我不认为这里正在发生崩溃。

I do think there is a severe structural challenge to the way we conduct liberal democracy in the West, particularly in the English‑speaking West.

我确实认为，我们在西方，尤其是英语西方国家推行自由民主的方式面临着严峻的结构性挑战。

The outcome of the immigration, sort of, aspect of Brexit, I think is one of those things that's going to be very hard to predict, because Theresa May, or whoever replaces her, British politics is Italianizing.

我认为，移民的结果，某种程度上是英国脱欧的一个方面，是很难预测的事情之一，因为特蕾莎·梅，或者无论谁取代她，英国政治正在意大利化。

There's going to be another general election in a year.

一年后将举行另一次大选。

The idea that a conservative prime minister could remain leader of their party whilst keeping freedom of movement is pretty hard to imagine now.

现在很难想象一位保守派总理可以在保持行动自由的同时继续担任其政党的领导人。

The party's shifted very much to an anti‑immigrant position.

该党的立场已大幅转向反移民。

The idea that anybody can survive, get reelected, and generate growth by leaving the single market is also pretty hard to imagine.

任何人都可以通过离开单一市场来生存、连任并实现增长，这种想法也很难想象。

Britain's between a rock and a hard place.

英国正处于进退两难的境地。

There's really no good outcomes here.

这里确实没有什么好的结果。

The first time the National Front, the Front National candidate, Marine Le Pen's father, Jean‑Marie Le Pen, got through to the second round within 2002.

国民阵线首次进入第二轮选举是在2002年，国民阵线候选人、马琳·勒庞的父亲让-马里·勒庞。

It was a crisis of France.

这是法国的一场危机。

It was a drama of the republic, “How could a fascist get through to being one of the last two?”

这是一部共和国的戏剧，“一个法西斯怎么可能成为最后两个人之一？”

Jacques Chirac led what was essentially a funeral march, no campaigning between round one of the election and round two.

雅克·希拉克领导了一场本质上是葬礼游行的活动，第一轮选举和第二轮选举之间没有任何竞选活动。

Everybody put the famous clothes pegs on their nose, Socialists, Communists.

每个人都把著名的衣夹挂在鼻子上，社会主义者、共产主义者。

They voted for the Gaullist.

他们投票给戴高乐主义者。

They voted for Chirac.

他们投票给希拉克。

He got 82 percent of the vote.

他获得了82%的选票。

As I say, it was an existential moment in French democracy.

正如我所说，这是法国民主的一个关乎生存的时刻。

Marine Le Pen gets through to the second round, as expected, wins a third of the vote, 11 million votes, as opposed to 5 million, and it's a kind of normal event, so I would dispute the fact that nothing's changed.

马琳·勒庞如预期那样进入了第二轮，赢得了三分之一的选票，1100万张选票，而不是500万张，这是一种正常事件，所以我对没有任何改变的事实表示异议。

I think in September, hopefully Merkel or Martin Schulz will be elected in the German elections, but the AFD is going to breach the five percent limit below which you can not achieve representation under the German system.

我认为九月，默克尔或马丁·舒尔茨有望在德国选举中当选，但德国联邦民主党将突破百分之五的限制，低于该限制就无法在德国制度下获得代表权。

This will be the first time in German history, since its basic law was promulgated in 1949, that the far right has achieved representation.

这将是自1949年颁布基本法以来德国历史上首次极右翼获得代表权。

Then, of course, there's Austria, where a postmodern Neo‑Nazi, Norbert Hofer, lost with 47 percent of the vote.

当然，还有奥地利，后现代新纳粹分子诺伯特·霍弗 (Norbert Hofer) 以 47% 的选票落败。

We celebrated that as a breaking of the populist wave.

我们庆祝这股民粹主义浪潮的终结。

How low should our bar be to celebrate the health of liberal democracy?

我们庆祝自由民主健康发展的门槛应该低到什么程度？

That, to me, is too low, so I dispute that premise of your question.

对我来说，这太低了，所以我对你问题的前提提出异议。

But there was a second half to your question, which…?

但你的问题还有后半部分，哪个……？

It's a remarkable fact that there are more prime‑aged males in work in France than there are in the United States ‑‑ in France, of all places, so there's a male element to this, too.

值得注意的是，在法国工作的壮年男性比在美国还要多——在法国，尤其是在所有地方，所以这也有男性因素。

I think that the cynicism generated by the Iraq War, the US‑led but British‑supported Iraq War in 2003…

我认为伊拉克战争、2003年美国领导、英国支持的伊拉克战争所产生的愤世嫉俗……

The fact that France and Germany very much stood apart from it, and I think correctly, and that that's a decision that sort of matures like a good wine.

事实上，法国和德国与它截然不同，我认为是正确的，这是一个像美酒一样成熟的决定。

It looks better and better over time.

随着时间的推移，它看起来越来越好。

I think that that created a poison in our politics that is missing in Germany and in France, but I would most of all focus on something that a former French Prime Minister, Lionel Jospin, said, which is, “We want a market economy, not a market society.”

我认为这在我们的政治中造成了一种毒害，这种毒害在德国和法国都没有，但我最想关注的是法国前总理莱昂内尔·若斯潘所说的一句话，即“我们想要市场经济，而不是市场社会。”

I think that in the United States, and to a large extent, Britain, we have commodified public life, and we have commodified to a degree that you just don't see in places like Germany, and I think we have things to learn from parts of continental Europe, including how they treat their middle classes.

我认为在美国，在很大程度上，在英国，我们已经商品化了公共生活，而且我们已经商品化到了你在德国这样的地方看不到的程度，而且我认为我们可以向欧洲大陆的部分地区学习一些东西，包括他们如何对待中产阶级。

We confuse ourselves in the US and Britain as to what skilled means.

在美国和英国，我们对“熟练”的含义感到困惑。

We think if you've got a college degree, you're skilled.

我们认为，如果您拥有大学学位，那么您就很熟练。

I know lots of skilled people who don't have college degrees, and I know lots of people with college degrees, including myself, who are unskilled.

我认识很多没有大学学位的有技能的人，也认识很多有大学学位的人，包括我自己，但没有技术。

I think that there is a better understanding, particularly in the Nordic, Denmark and Germany, of the need to accommodate a diversity of aspirations and aptitudes in the labor force, and they invest in things that we consider to be low‑skilled stepping stones to either something better or to failure.

我认为，尤其是在北欧、丹麦和德国，人们对适应劳动力的多样化愿望和能力的必要性有了更好的理解，他们投资于我们认为是低技能垫脚石的东西，要么走向更好，要么走向失败。

We've got a lot more failures, I think, and they're are a lot more frustrated.

我认为我们经历了更多的失败，他们也更加沮丧。

And just as Chinese manufacturing has done that to Italy, Germany probably also is vulnerable, has poorer native demographics, has barely had real‑wage growth since 2000, has now a higher rate of people at work.

正如中国制造业对意大利造成的影响一样，德国可能也很脆弱，其本土人口结构较差，自 2000 年以来实际工资几乎没有增长，但现在的就业率却更高。

But is it the case that this is happening first to the Anglo countries simply because they're more open, and the future comes here first?

但这种情况首先发生在盎格鲁国家是否只是因为它们更加开放，并且未来首先到来？

It used to come to California first.

它曾经首先来到加利福尼亚。

Sometimes I joke it comes to Israel and Singapore first, because those are small, fairly open places where a small impact spreads quite rapidly.

有时我开玩笑说，它首先出现在以色列和新加坡，因为这些都是小而相当开放的地方，小的影响会很快传播。

Is that a possible hypothesis?

这是一个可能的假设吗？

Macron's program is a sort of soft Thatcherism, maybe Blairism.

马克龙的计划是一种软性的撒切尔主义，也许是布莱尔主义。

I don't know what you call it, but Macron, the rubber's going to hit the road quite soon.

我不知道你怎么称呼它，但是马克龙，橡胶很快就会上路。

He's got a majority.

他占了多数。

The En Marche has a majority in the French assembly, and a lot of these people have never served in politics before.

前进党在法国议会中占多数，其中很多人以前从未从政。

That was part of the appeal.

这是上诉的一部分。

It's a wide, but thin, coalition that has been assembled by a very skillful young man ‑‑ and I now really do feel old, because he's at least a decade younger than me ‑‑ by promising all things to all people.

这是一个广泛但薄弱的联盟，由一位非常有技巧的年轻人组建而成——我现在确实感觉自己老了，因为他至少比我年轻十岁——向所有人承诺一切。

Very clever politics.

非常聪明的政治。

Not necessarily a good program for governing.

不一定是一个好的治理计划。

France has a politics of anti‑politics, of people who don't vote, and of people who protest by bringing politics to a halt.

法国的政治是反政治的，人们不投票，人们通过停止政治来抗议。

I think we're going to see that tested.

我想我们将会看到这一点的测试。

I don't necessarily disagree with the premise of that.

我不一定不同意这个前提。

I think France and Germany are going to be subjected to a lot of harsh wins, as they already are, but they'll get harsher, as China grows and others grow.

我认为法国和德国将遭受很多残酷的胜利，就像它们已经发生的那样，但随着中国的发展和其他国家的发展，它们会变得更加艰难。

The proposition of whether their democracies are better equipped to cope with this will be put to the test.

他们的民主国家是否有更好的能力应对这一问题将受到考验。

I do think, though, that there are some things they know that we don't.

不过，我确实认为有些事情他们知道而我们不知道。

Denmark, for example, has an employer government program where everybody can train at anything they like for two weeks a year, and most Danish employees avail of that.

例如，丹麦有一项雇主政府计划，每个人都可以每年接受为期两周的任何他们喜欢的培训，大多数丹麦员工都会利用这一计划。

They train in stuff, and so that the labor market turnover in Denmark is way higher than it is in the rest of Europe, because people don't feel wedded to one skill.

他们接受各种培训，因此丹麦的劳动力市场流动率比欧洲其他国家高得多，因为人们并不觉得只专注于一种技能。

They feel much more confident in a gig economy to move around, be more flexible, and change jobs.

他们对零工经济更有信心，可以四处走动、更加灵活、更换工作。

I don't want to generalize too grossly about which democracies are doing badly and which are doing well.

我不想过于粗暴地概括哪些民主国家表现不佳，哪些民主国家表现良好。

What's important is what unites us, and that is a pretty profound existential challenge to how we do business, if you like.

重要的是是什么让我们团结在一起，如果你愿意的话，这对我们开展业务的方式来说是一个相当深刻的生存挑战。

The media is going a pretty good job of ferreting out stuff, and Congress, well, we'll see.

媒体在搜寻信息方面做得非常好，国会，好吧，我们拭目以待。

We'll see, but it's sort of limbering up, perhaps, to do a good job.

我们拭目以待，但这也许是为了做好工作而做的准备。

I think the American system, proving it works, it might a net plus over time.

我认为美国的体系，证明它有效，随着时间的推移，它可能会带来净收益。

Brexit, by far the best outcome is that the British do what our wise and by now more successful neighbors, the Irish, have done twice, which is twice lost a referendum on Europe, on Maastricht and on Lisbon, and twice said, “OK, now we're going to ask you again, having thought about it.”

英国脱欧，迄今为止最好的结果是，英国人按照我们的明智行事，而现在更成功的邻国爱尔兰已经做了两次，其中两次在欧洲公投、马斯特里赫特公投和里斯本公投中失败，并且两次说：“好吧，现在我们要再问你一次，考虑一下。”

It was a bit like round one of the French election and round two.

这有点像法国大选的第一轮和第二轮。

There's a cooling off period.

有一个冷静期。

The second round, the turnout shoots up, and the Irish, having thought about it, but we need a second referendum in Britain.

第二轮投票率上升，爱尔兰人也考虑过，但我们需要在英国进行第二次公投。

You can not determine a country's future like this with 52 percent of the vote.

你不可能用52%的选票来决定一个国家的未来。

People still seem to take some form of Brexit for granted.

人们似乎仍然认为某种形式的脱欧是理所当然的。

It's not really being challenged openly, except by a small number of elites.

除了少数精英之外，它并没有真正受到公开挑战。

Is your vision of liberalism something that ultimately comes before a democracy?

您对自由主义的看法最终是否先于民主？

As three judges suggested that Parliament should have a say in this.

正如三名法官建议议会应该对此有发言权。

After all, Britain is based on the sovereignty of Parliament.

毕竟，英国的主权是建立在议会主权之上的。

That is, “If we're going to take back our sovereignty, Parliament should have a say.”

也就是说，“如果我们要收回主权，议会应该有发言权。”

Enemies of the people.

人民的敌人。

The three judges faces were put on the front of not just tabloids, but what we call broad sheets in Britain ‑‑ supposedly more serious newspapers ‑‑ “Enemies of the People.” The kind of demagoguery that has gone on for anybody who's raised that debate has chilled the whole ability to have a rational discussion about what the trade‑offs are here.

这三位法官的头像不仅出现在小报上，还出现在英国所谓的大报——据说是更严肃的报纸——《人民公敌》的封面上。对于任何提出这场辩论的人来说，这种煽动行为已经冷却了对这里的权衡进行理性讨论的整体能力。

Granted, if there were a second referendum and the remainers lost it, that would be a high risk to call such a referendum, it might well be the case the British people get really annoyed at being asked twice, and the pro‑Brexit margin goes up.

诚然，如果举行第二次公投而留欧派失败了，那么举行这样的公投的风险就会很高，英国人民很可能会因为被问两次而感到非常恼火，支持脱欧的支持率会上升。

I think people should be given a chance to think, to cool off and think about what's at stake here, because all the evidence shows that there was a really poor debate leading up to last summer's Brexit.

我认为人们应该有机会思考，冷静下来，思考这里的利害关系，因为所有证据都表明，去年夏天英国脱欧之前的辩论非常糟糕。

The electorate, as famously googled EU, on a scale never seen before the following day, “What is the EU?”

第二天，选民们在谷歌上搜索欧盟，规模之大前所未有，“欧盟是什么？”

With those as the major issues, do we even know what liberalism looks like, just to say people back in even the 1930s probably hardly ever debated gay marriage, if at all.

有了这些作为主要问题，我们甚至知道自由主义是什么样子吗？即使是在 20 世纪 30 年代，人们可能也很少讨论过同性婚姻（如果有的话）。

Remember, we had the Jacobeans saying that we needed instant electric democracy, and nothing in between the people and the decisions.

请记住，詹姆士一世时期的人曾说过，我们需要即时的电子民主，而人民和决策之间没有任何障碍。

You are describing decisions here, very complex ‑‑ ethically, legally, societally, and internationally ‑‑ very complex decisions that you cannot decide by plebiscite, and I don't care whether you can do it online and make it easier.

你在这里描述的决定非常复杂——道德、法律、社会和国际层面——非常复杂的决定，你无法通过公民投票来决定，我不在乎你是否可以在网上完成并使其变得更容易。

It makes no difference.

这没有什么区别。

These are questions where you need to be able to delegate authority to your representatives who you can fire at the next opportunity to develop the skills as full‑time political representatives to make these judgments.

在这些问题上，您需要能够将权力委托给您的代表，您可以在下次有机会解雇他们，以培养作为全职政治代表做出这些判断的技能。

If you don't like those judgments, you throw them out.

如果你不喜欢这些判断，你就把它们扔掉。

I don't think the answer is either, what you might be implying, because you could go one of two ways ‑‑ the plebiscitary Robespierre kind of democracy on the one hand, or Singapore, basically non‑democracy and a rule of experts on the other.

我认为答案不是你所暗示的那样，因为你可以选择两种方式之一——一方面是公民投票的罗伯斯庇尔式民主，另一方面是新加坡，基本上是非民主和专家统治。

I don't see anything better than representative democracy.

我认为没有什么比代议制民主更好的了。

In the middle of these, we always have this segment, “Overrated versus Underrated.” You're from England, of course.

在这些中间，我们总是有这样一个部分：“高估与低估”。当然，你来自英国。

You've moved to the United States, so I'm going to ask you about a number of other Brits who've done the same, and you tell me if you think they're overrated or underrated.

你已经搬到了美国，所以我要问你一些其他也做过同样事的英国人，然后你告诉我你是否认为他们被高估或低估了。

Stanley Kubrick.

斯坦利·库布里克。

But you're really going to “Space Odyssey 2001.”

但你真的要去观看《太空漫游 2001》。

I think we should judge him on his poetry and forgive the fact that he wanted to get the hell out of Dodge in 1939, because he wasn't.

我认为我们应该根据他的诗歌来评判他，并原谅他在 1939 年想摆脱道奇这一事实，因为他并没有这么做。

His contemporaries questioned why he was crossing the Atlantic at that particular moment.

他的同时代人质疑他为何在那个特定时刻跨越大西洋。

But his poetry is brilliant and eternal.

但他的诗是辉煌的、永恒的。

I'd say he's been forgotten.

我想说他已经被遗忘了。

There will be much more aid to people, but also much more control of people under the Modi regime, which has pushed for both aid and control in different ways and hasn't liberalized as much as many people had expected.

在莫迪政权的领导下，人们将会得到更多的援助，但对人们的控制也会更多，莫迪政权以不同的方式推动援助和控制，但并没有像许多人预期的那样自由化。

Is India right now moving in a liberal direction?

印度现在正在走向自由主义方向吗？

Making it harder for minorities ‑‑ Muslims, Christians, and others ‑‑ to express themselves freely, in terms of allowing far‑right groups associated with the Sangh Parivar, which is the broad name given to the Hinduite far movement, of which the BJP is a branch.

允许与桑格帕里瓦尔（Sangh Parivar）有联系的极右团体，让少数群体——穆斯林、基督徒和其他人——更难自由表达自己的意见。桑格帕里瓦尔是印度教极端运动的广义名称，印度人民党是该运动的一个分支。

The RSS is really the parent.

RSS 确实是父级。

Allowing groups, the most vicious youth wing, the Bajrang Dal, and VHP, another very hard‑right part of the Hinduite far movement, a lot more leeway legally to harass minorities and changing of the curriculum.

允许最邪恶的青年派别 Bajrang Dal 和印度教远距离运动的另一个极右翼组织 VHP 在法律上有更多的余地来骚扰少数群体和改变课程。

To rewrite it, to make India Hindu and Hindu India, and completely downplay the extraordinarily important Muslim contribution to what is a syncretic culture, a riot of faith and interactions, and a glory of pluralism.

重写它，使印度成为印度教和印度教印度，并完全淡化穆斯林对融合文化、信仰和互动的骚乱以及多元化的荣耀所做出的极其重要的贡献。

If it simply keeps in motion, won't you get over the medium‑ to long‑term, say, at least a third of India, looking a bit like Malaysia, Gujarat having infrastructure, being developed, people having richer, freer, more diverse lives.

如果它继续下去，你会不会度过中长期，比如说，至少三分之一的印度，看起来有点像马来西亚，古吉拉特邦有基础设施，正在发展，人们过着更富裕、更自由、更多样化的生活。

Not all of India, but the , they're still better off.

不是整个印度，但印度的情况仍然更好。

Rural India moving more to cities, which is the single biggest liberalizing development you could imagine in a life.

印度农村地区更多地向城市迁移，这是你一生中能想象到的最大的自由化发展。

And thus, political headlines aside, India as a whole will be much more liberal 10 or 15 years from now, or no?

因此，抛开政治头条新闻不谈，印度作为一个整体将会在 10 年或 15 年后变得更加自由，或者不会？

Am I looking at the wrong indicators?

我是否看错了指标？

He's not in it for corruption or personal enrichment, and he doesn't tolerate people around him who are.

他参与其中并不是为了腐败或个人致富，他也不能容忍周围的人这样做。

That's an extraordinarily refreshing and important change from the Congress government that he booted out three years ago.

与他三年前下台的国大党政府相比，这是一个极其令人耳目一新且重要的变化。

The Jekyll is not actually a sort of classic laissez‑faire liberal.

杰基尔实际上并不是一种典型的自由放任自由主义者。

It's a China model of development.

这是中国的发展模式。

He's a project executor.

他是一个项目执行者。

He believes in infrastructure that's built and on time, and that works, and God knows, India needs that.

他相信基础设施必须按时建成、有效，天知道，印度需要这些。

If Jekyll‑Modi succeeds, it will be a positive liberal event, because more people will be lifted out of poverty, fewer people will be illiterate, and women, as you say, will be prime beneficiaries of this.

如果杰基尔·莫迪成功，这将是一个积极的自由主义事件，因为更多的人将摆脱贫困，更少的人成为文盲，而正如你所说，妇女将成为主要受益者。

But remember, he's also Dr. Hyde.

但请记住，他也是海德博士。

This guy is a fascist, and if things go wrong, and Jekyll can't deliver, and he faces reelection two years from now and the possibility of losing the majority…

这家伙是个法西斯分子，如果事情出了问题，杰基尔无法兑现承诺，他将面临两年后的连任，并有可能失去多数席位……

He's a master, bar none, of whipping up Hindu sentiment and to override caste divisions.

他是煽动印度教情绪和消除种姓分歧的大师，无人能及。

That's always the key is, “How can you unite Hindus beyond what divides them?” Because in India, you don't cast your vote.

关键始终是：“如何才能超越印度教徒的分歧，团结起来？”因为在印度，你不投票。

You vote your caste.

你投票你的种姓。

Is it true, and if so, why is India so apparently stable?

这是真的吗？如果是的话，为什么印度看起来如此稳定？

India's sheer pluralism is very stabilizing if you take a sort of 30,000‑foot view.

如果你站在三万英尺的高度看的话，印度纯粹的多元化是非常稳定的。

If you're in the midst of it, you think it's anarchy, but the more of altitude you get on this, the more stabilizing it is.

如果你身处其中，你会认为这是无政府状态，但你的高度越高，它就越稳定。

It is a country that lets off steam regularly, and that's why I'm concerned that Modi doesn't celebrate that side of India.

这是一个经常发泄情绪的国家，这就是为什么我担心莫迪不庆祝印度的这一面。

I think it's an important, immensely valuable quality to India, that gives it a huge advantage over China.

我认为这对印度来说是一个重要的、非常有价值的品质，这使它比中国具有巨大的优势。

You were a speech writer for economist Larry Summers.

您是经济学家拉里·萨默斯的演讲撰稿人。

Other than the obvious, what particular skill does a good speech writer need?

除了显而易见的技能之外，优秀的演讲稿撰稿人还需要哪些特殊技能？

I don't think being a speech writer to Steve Mnuchin would be any help to being a speech writer to Larry Summers.

我认为为史蒂夫·姆努钦（Steve Mnuchin）撰写演讲稿对为拉里·萨默斯（Larry Summers）撰写演讲稿没有任何帮助。

You've got to know the individual you're writing speeches for.

你必须了解你要为其撰写演讲稿的人。

Larry, whatever his robust personality might be, you learn more from writing speeches for him in three months than you do in one year as a student.

拉里，无论他的个性如何，你在三个月内为他写演讲所学到的东西比你作为一名学生一年所学到的还要多。

It's an extraordinarily intensive learning process.

这是一个异常密集的学习过程。

If you're giving someone advice today who wants to be the next Ed Luce, what advice do you give them, other than the obvious?

如果你今天给想成为下一个埃德·卢斯的人提供建议，除了显而易见的建议之外，你还会给他们什么建议？

I'd say, “Do other stuff.

我会说：“做点别的事吧。”

Acquire real skills and experience in completely unrelated fields.”

在完全不相关的领域获得真正的技能和经验。”

I don't know.

我不知道。

I think that's a pretty subjective line.

我认为这是一条非常主观的路线。

The UK has changed a lot.

英国发生了很大变化。

That's right.

这是正确的。

Can I argue?

我可以争论吗？

Can I prove to you America has changed more?

我能向你证明美国发生了更多的变化吗？

I don't know.

我不知道。

I think in 2002, if somebody had told you that gay marriage would be legal, that marijuana, recreationally, would be legal in x number of states, and that you'd have a black president asking something I didn't agree with, for transgender bathroom rights in an election year, that you would have probably scoffed at any such change being possible.

我认为在 2002 年，如果有人告诉你同性婚姻将是合法的，娱乐用的大麻在 x 个州将是合法的，并且你会有一位黑人总统提出一些我不同意的问题，即在选举年的跨性别者上厕所的权利，你可能会嘲笑任何可能发生的这种变化。

I'm not saying all that change was positive, but I certainly think marriage equality is, and the speed with which that happened is remarkable.

我并不是说所有的变化都是积极的，但我当然认为婚姻平等是积极的，而且这种变化发生的速度是惊人的。

First I'll start with a question from the iPad, “Ed, who is the one columnist you would like to fight?”

首先，我将从 iPad 上提出一个问题：“Ed，你想与谁对抗的专栏作家？”

Audience Member: The regimes in Poland and Hungary ‑‑ do you see them as an outlier that will be contained, or something that's the forerunner of more to come?

观众：波兰和匈牙利的政权——你认为它们是一个将被遏制的异常现象，还是未来更多政权的先驱？

Today we are suffering, I think, from an absence of leadership of the liberal international order, and countries like Hungary and Poland are able to move extraordinarily, after having, really, craved to join the EU, to be European, to be Western, extraordinarily moving towards Putinism or some form of Putinism.

我认为，今天我们正因缺乏自由国际秩序的领导而遭受痛苦，而像匈牙利和波兰这样的国家，在真正渴望加入欧盟、成为欧洲人、成为西方国家之后，能够采取非凡的行动，非凡地走向普京主义或某种形式的普京主义。

I think America's absence is really important, so I'm not particularly optimistic on that score, because I think America's going to continue to be absent on these questions.

我认为美国的缺席非常重要，所以我对此并不特别乐观，因为我认为美国将继续在这些问题上缺席。

I think we underestimate the degree to which America has been an exceptional power, and that this 70 years since 1945 has been what Bob Kagan calls an unnatural period in human history.

我认为我们低估了美国作为一个特殊强国的程度，自 1945 年以来的这 70 年被鲍勃·卡根 (Bob Kagan) 称为人类历史上的一个非自然时期。

It's been a success, broadly, of an era of no mass wars and moving towards democracy, because there's been a hegemon consciously pushing in that direction.

从广义上讲，这是一个没有大规模战争并走向民主的时代的成功，因为有一个霸权有意识地朝这个方向推进。

That's a role America is no longer playing.

美国不再扮演这个角色。

I hope it plays it again, but until it does, I fear you're going to see Poland and Hungary moving further in the direction they've been moving.

我希望它能再次播放，但在它播放之前，我担心你会看到波兰和匈牙利朝着他们一直在前进的方向走得更远。

Audience Member: We've talked about the illiberalism on the right, I think, Brexit, President Trump, and all those sorts of things, UKIP, but what about the illiberalism on the left?

观众：我们已经讨论了右翼的反自由主义，我想，英国脱欧，特朗普总统，以及诸如此类的事情，英国独立党，但是左翼的反自由主义呢？

I think that the final nail in the coffin of Blairism came last Thursday when Jeremy Corbyn ‑‑ who is an unrepentant Marxist ‑‑ picked up 30 seats in that election, and MÈlenchon in France, and Bernie Sanders here in the United States.

我认为布莱尔主义棺材上的最后一颗钉子是上周四敲响的，当时杰里米·科尔宾（Jeremy Corbyn）——一位不屈不挠的马克思主义者——在那次选举中获得了 30 个席位，法国的梅朗雄（MÈlenchon）和美国的伯尼·桑德斯（Bernie Sanders）。

The far left is really on a roll, something of a roll, in the Western world.

在西方世界，最左翼确实在发展，在某种程度上是在发展。

Could you speak to the far left's illiberalism?

您能谈谈极左的反自由主义吗？

Left illiberalism, and anti‑Americanism, to which European illiberalism is very closely aligned, is a very serious, very real.

左翼反自由主义和反美主义与欧洲反自由主义非常紧密地结合在一起，是非常严肃、非常真实的。

MÈlenchon might have lost, but he got almost a fifth of the vote, as you mentioned.

梅朗雄可能会失败，但正如你提到的，他获得了近五分之一的选票。

I think that the further away we get from 2008 ‑‑ which is very much associated with the new left, the Third Way left, of Blair, Gordon Brown, and others ‑‑ the further away we get from that, the more we'e going to see populists left wing movements marshaling everywhere.

我认为，我们离 2008 年越远——这与布莱尔、戈登·布朗等人的新左派、第三条道路左派密切相关——我们离它越远，我们就越会看到民粹主义左翼运动在各地集结。

I would consider, this isn't just a right‑wing populist moment, although that's been the principal manifestation of populism, and I agree with your identification of that.

我认为，这不仅仅是右翼民粹主义时刻，尽管这是民粹主义的主要表现，我同意你对此的看法。

Audience Member: This past weekend, there was a plebiscite in Puerto Rico on statehood, and 25 percent of the electorate showed up.

观众：上周末，波多黎各就建州问题举行了公民投票，25%的选民参加了投票。

Today, yet again, we have another election here in Virginia.

今天，我们在弗吉尼亚州再次举行了另一场选举。

We have one every six months, where probably 20 percent of the electorate will show.

我们每六个月举行一次，大概有 20% 的选民会参加。

Is this apathy, complacency, fatigue, or is there some illiberal mechanism that's holding the electorate back?

这是冷漠、自满、疲劳，还是有某种不自由的机制阻碍了选民？

I think there is a deep cynicism about politics, and about experts and establishment politics.

我认为人们对政治、专家和建制政治怀有深深的愤世嫉俗。

Remember, in France, there's also an anti‑establishment thing going on.

请记住，在法国，也存在反建制的事情。

I think there's a deep cynicism about it, which is really quite understandable, if you look at what the experts have bought us.

我认为对此有一种深深的愤世嫉俗，如果你看看专家们给我们买了什么，这确实是可以理解的。

They bought us the Iraq War.

他们给我们带来了伊拉克战争。

The experts very much mis‑sold how that would fare.

专家们对这种情况的解释非常错误。

They bought us 2008.

他们在 2008 年收购了我们。

The experts were the last to see it coming.

专家们是最后预见到这一情况的。

I think Millennials, who until last Thursday in Britain, had been turning out at lower rates in most democracies than other age groups, have grown up with this cynicism, and they feel it's normal.

我认为，直到上周四在英国，千禧一代在大多数民主国家的投票率都低于其他年龄段的人，他们是在这种愤世嫉俗的情绪中长大的，他们觉得这是正常的。

Tyler would say that's healthy, because they're not actually angry.

泰勒会说这是健康的，因为他们实际上并没有生气。

They're just apathetic.

他们只是冷漠。

If you've got a choice between anger and apathy, let's go for apathy, but I think it's highly corrosive of liberal democracy.

如果你必须在愤怒和冷漠之间做出选择，那就选择冷漠吧，但我认为这对自由民主具有很强的腐蚀性。

If this is simply a correction where we reject Davos, we reject the sort of “elites run the world,” and decide all the big economic stuff, and we just stick with identity politics, then this could be a liberal moment.

如果这只是我们拒绝达沃斯的修正，我们拒绝那种“精英统治世界”，并决定所有重大经济问题，而我们只是坚持身份政治，那么这可能是一个自由主义时刻。

I think it's a very good question.

我认为这是一个非常好的问题。

I suspect, though, you don't just have these little conniptions that then fade away.

不过，我怀疑你不只是有这些小小烦恼，然后就会消失。

There are consequences to these connections, and I fear that Trumpism, even if he lost in 2020, is going to leave a deeply disruptive mark ‑‑ in the pejorative sense of disruptive ‑‑ mark on American democracy and on the reputation of American democracy and American leadership around the world.

这些联系会产生后果，我担心特朗普主义即使在 2020 年失败，也将在美国民主、美国民主和美国在世界各地的领导力声誉上留下深刻的破坏性印记（破坏性的贬义）。

As I've said before on Brexit, we're about to sign up as the same option to a world where foreigners decide our regulations, our trade deals, our products standards, and all, except we don't a say over it.

正如我之前在英国脱欧问题上所说的那样，我们即将加入一个同样的选择，进入一个由外国人决定我们的法规、我们的贸易协议、我们的产品标准等等的世界，只是我们对此没有发言权。

If that's rational, go figure.

如果这是理性的，那就想想吧。

Audience Member: How does a multiparty system in Europe affect the retreat or advance of liberalism versus the two‑party system we have here in the US?

听众：与美国的两党制相比，欧洲的多党制如何影响自由主义的退却或前进？

But last Thursday was the peak two‑party moment in almost 40 years.

但上周四是近 40 年来两方的巅峰时刻。

The Conservative Party got its highest share of the vote since 1983, when Thatcher had her second big landslide, and the Labour Party had its highest share of the vote since 1983.

保守党获得了自 1983 年撒切尔夫人第二次获得压倒性胜利以来的最高得票率，而工党则获得了自 1983 年以来的最高得票率。

Sorry, it had its highest share of the vote since 1997, when Blair came in.

抱歉，它的得票率是自 1997 年布莱尔上台以来最高的。

This is a two‑party peak.

这是两党的巅峰。

The smaller parties have temporarily been pushed away.

小党派暂时被排除在外。

The United States, you don't have two parties.

美国，没有两个政党。

You have many parties under two umbrellas, and you're a continent, so it's very hard to analogize the US with Europe.

两个保护伞下有很多政党，而且是一个大陆，因此很难将美国与欧洲进行类比。

One thing I would say, is your system is not designed to be parliamentary.

我要说的一件事是，你们的制度并不是为议会制度设计的。

Your system works better when each party is a coalition between different interests, and the fact that each is becoming more and more monochromatic, more and more disciplined and parliamentary, is disastrous for this system.

当每个政党都是不同利益之间的联盟时，你的制度会运作得更好，而每个政党都变得越来越单一、越来越有纪律和议会化，这一事实对这个制度来说是灾难性的。

This system doesn't work like that.

这个系统不是这样工作的。

Alexei Navalny, the leader, currently, of opposition to Putin, is doing something that Corbyn managed to achieve last Thursday.

目前反对普京的领导人阿列克谢·纳瓦尔尼正在做科尔宾上周四成功实现的事情。

He's getting young people out, being quite bold, and protesting on quite some scale across Russia.

他让年轻人走出去，非常大胆，并在俄罗斯各地进行了相当规模的抗议。

You ought to draw hope from that kind of courage from millennials.

你应该从千禧一代的这种勇气中汲取希望。

We're used to thinking of millennials as slightly different.

我们习惯于认为千禧一代略有不同。

I wouldn't rule out Russia turning from abeying a Western democracy to being something quite hopeful.

我不排除俄罗斯从西方民主国家转变为充满希望的国家。

I think that's definitely a positive thing that's potentially going on there.

我认为这绝对是那里可能发生的一件积极的事情。

Audience Member: Neil Ferguson concluded his book “The West and the Rest” with the idea that is the pusillanimity of Western democracies is to blame for the decline of Western ideas.

观众：尼尔·弗格森在他的《西方与其他国家》一书中总结道，西方民主国家的怯懦是西方思想衰落的罪魁祸首。

What do you think about that?

你对此有何看法？

I think, in fact, we should have had more stimulus and had more counter‑cyclical fiscal policy in the last decade than we have had.

我认为，事实上，我们在过去十年中应该采取更多的刺激措施和更多的反周期财政政策。

I think the German answer ‑‑ and here's where I would criticize the German sado‑managerist approach has actually been very damaging to Europe, particularly to the Club Med group of European countries, so I'm not sure I agree with Neil Ferguson.

我认为德国的答案——我在这里批评德国的施虐管理主义方法实际上对欧洲，特别是欧洲国家的地中海俱乐部集团造成了很大的损害，所以我不确定我是否同意尼尔·弗格森的观点。

He changes his argument about once a year, so I'll either catch up with him, or he'll catch up with me.

他大约每年改变一次论点，所以要么我追上他，要么他追上我。

They're coming from a much lower base.

他们的基础要低得多。

They tend to be younger, average age, too, which affects that outlook.

他们往往更年轻，平均年龄也更大，这影响了他们的看法。

I think it's as simple as that.

我认为事情就这么简单。

He did not go an dance on the Berlin Wall.

他没有去柏林墙跳舞。

He did not go and beat his breast and claim credit for it.

他并没有去捶胸顿足并以此为功。

Can you imagine a president doing that today?

你能想象今天的总统会这么做吗？

Audience Member: Yeah.

观众：是的。

But although I'm not an Orangeman, I'm not a Catholic, and I'm tiptoeing through a minefield already, so I don't want to get too…I don't want to be too detailed in my commentary on Catholic law.

但是，虽然我不是橙人，我也不是天主教徒，而且我已经在雷区中小心翼翼地走过了，所以我不想太……我不想在我对天主教法律的评论中过于详细。

I'm going to get something wrong.

我会弄错的。

Audience Member: The dysfunction of the US Congress, first of all, do you agree that it's becoming less and less functional?

观众：美国国会功能失调，首先你是否同意它的功能越来越少？

Secondly, how do you relate that to your point, which you pointed to, the commodification of politics in society and not just the economy?

其次，您如何将其与您指出的社会政治商品化（而不仅仅是经济商品化）联系起来？

If so, how do we go, then, from where we are to what you propose as a system of government in which we trust in the delegation of authority to people whom we trust to do the right thing, who've presented a vision of the right thing that we so now come to share?

如果是这样，那么我们如何从我们现在的现状走向您所提议的政府体系，在这个体系中，我们相信将权力委托给我们相信会做正确事情的人，他们提出了我们现在分享的正确事物的愿景？

Audience Member: Yes, I'd like to push you to talk a little bit more about the retreat to something.

观众：是的，我想敦促你多谈谈关于撤退的事情。

What do they moving towards?

他们正在走向什么？

In this regard, I'm thinking of Tony Jett's argument that they're moving towards some kind of certainty and away from the liberal institutions that they perceive as having failed to satisfy their needs.

在这方面，我想到了托尼·杰特的论点，即他们正在走向某种确定性，并远离他们认为未能满足他们需求的自由主义机构。

I think the retreat of Western liberalism isn't just that we are having our problems at home and having to relearn some of the lessons of what liberal democracy actually means.

我认为西方自由主义的倒退不仅仅是因为我们在国内遇到了问题，并且不得不重新学习自由民主实际上意味着什么的一些教训。

But I think our models because are not performing well for the broad‑based electorates, that vote in our governments every few years.

但我认为我们的模式对于每隔几年在我们政府中投票的广泛选民来说表现不佳。

The model of Western liberalism ‑‑ just very quick things.

西方自由主义的模式——只是非常快速的事情。

I know you want a quick answer.

我知道你想要一个快速的答案。

2008 was described as a global recession.

2008年被描述为全球经济衰退。

It wasn't.

事实并非如此。

It was an Atlantic recession.

那是一场大西洋经济衰退。

China kept growing.

中国不断增长。

India kept growing.

印度持续增长。

The relative attractiveness of the Chinese model therefore grew.

因此，中国模式的相对吸引力有所增长。

I think the retreat of Western liberalism as a model that delivers the goods to its people ‑‑ that's the ultimate measure ‑‑ is a kind of economic determinist one that I would apply.

我认为，西方自由主义作为向人民提供商品的模式的退却——这是最终的措施——是我将应用的一种经济决定论。

We should remember it's because of Pax Americana.

我们应该记住这是因为美国治下的和平。

It's because of the public goods supplied over the past 70, 80 years that China is in a position, and India, to lift people out of poverty on this scale, to cut child mortality, illiteracy, under‑five, whatever it is.

正是由于过去 70、80 年提供的公共产品，中国和印度才能够使人民摆脱如此规模的贫困，降低儿童死亡率、文盲率、五岁以下儿童死亡率，无论是什么。

Maternal deaths.

孕产妇死亡。

Globally, this is an immensely positive moment and more brainpower is being plugged into the system exponentially over time.

在全球范围内，这是一个非常积极的时刻，随着时间的推移，更多的人才正以指数级的速度融入到这个系统中。