David Brooks on Audacity, AI, and the American Psyche - Live at 92NY (Ep. 252)

Hello, David.

你好，大卫。

Thank you for doing this.

谢谢你这样做。

Thank you all for coming.

谢谢大家的到来。

First, one of the things I’ve learned about young people is they love it when people of our generation generalize about them.

首先，我从年轻人身上了解到的一件事是，他们喜欢我们这一代人对他们进行概括。

They just think that’s fantastic.

他们只是认为那太棒了。

But they’re more productive, right?

但他们的生产力更高，对吗？

They’re more productive than we ever were.

他们比我们以前更有效率。

There’s a young man in the audience named David Wignall, who I met at Williams College a couple of months ago, and who made an interesting observation to me over dinner.

观众中有一位名叫大卫·维格纳尔（David Wignall）的年轻人，我几个月前在威廉姆斯学院认识了他，他在晚餐时向我提出了一个有趣的观察。

He said, “We’re the most rejected generation.”

他说：“我们是最被拒绝的一代。”

That’s 80 percent of the distribution, right?

这是 80% 的分配，对吗？

So, you’re pretty bullish on the whole thing?

那么，您对整件事非常看好吗？

Half of young people go to college.

一半的年轻人上大学。

But of the college comp.

但是大学比赛。

Of the college, yes.

学院的，是的。

Eighty percent go to state schools.

百分之八十去公立学校。

What is it?

它是什么？

Four percent go to super elite schools.

百分之四的人进入超级精英学校。

I think the untold story is the Southern Methodist students, where people are like, “This is great.

我认为不为人知的故事是南卫理公会的学生，那里的人们会说：“这太棒了。

I go to a great school, I have great friends, and I’m going to get a job.”

我上了一所很棒的学校，我有很好的朋友，而且我会找到一份工作。”

Now you write for Atlantic.

现在你为《大西洋月刊》撰稿。

Atlantic told us recently, younger people are having less sex.

《大西洋月刊》最近告诉我们，年轻人的性行为正在减少。

Is it that they’re being rejected?

难道是他们被拒绝了？

Why can’t they solve that coordination problem?

为什么他们不能解决协调问题？

COWEN: There are just gains from trade.

COWEN：贸易只会带来收益。

It seems a lot more fun than a smartphone.

它似乎比智能手机有趣得多。

What’s your model here?

你这里的型号是什么？

You are such a boomer.

你真是个婴儿潮一代。

You think the smartphone is more fun?

你认为智能手机更好玩吗？

Hell, yes.

地狱，是的。

You didn’t go to college where I went.

你没有上过我上的大学。

This is Jean Twenge’s work, that there’s been an age compression, and so things people were doing in 9th grade, they’re now doing in 12th grade.

这是 Jean Twenge 的作品，年龄压缩了，所以人们在 9 年级做的事情，现在在 12 年级做。

This is all sorts of risky behavior, whether it includes sex, whether it includes fighting, whether it includes driving, and so a lot of people are delaying.

这是各种各样的危险行为，无论是性行为，无论是打架，还是开车，等等，很多人都在拖延。

I do think that’s primarily the phone, that it’s hard to ask somebody out.

我确实认为这主要是电话的问题，很难约人出去。

Believe me, if you looked like me in high school, it was a challenge.

相信我，如果你看起来像高中时的我，那是一个挑战。

It’s super anxiety-inducing to ask somebody out.

约某人出去会让人非常焦虑。

I asked in high school, and I was rejected every time, but it wasn’t a challenge to ask, right?

我高中时就问过，每次都被拒绝，但问起来也不是什么挑战，对吧？

Now you have a phone, you don’t have to ask.

现在你有电话了，就不用问了。

One of my students said to me, “I’ve had four boyfriends in my life, and all of them ghosted me at the end.” None of the young men had been taught you need to have a breakup conversation, and you need to have the skill to break up with somebody without crushing their heart.

我的一位学生对我说：“我一生中有过四个男朋友，但最后他们都对我产生了影响。”没有一个年轻人被教导过你需要进行分手谈话，你需要有技巧在不伤他们心的情况下与某人分手。

This young woman told me, “Of course, I’m distrustful, and of course, I’m hesitant to be in a relationship because I’ve been burned every time.” I think there’s just a lot more anxiety about that.

这位年轻女子告诉我：“当然，我不信任别人，当然，我对恋爱关系也很犹豫，因为我每次都被灼伤。”我认为对此有更多的焦虑。

Why don’t married couples have more sex?

为什么已婚夫妇没有更多的性生活？

They’re there together.

他们在一起。

It seems better than anything else they could do.

这似乎比他们能做的任何事情都要好。

Is it the same reason younger people are not having more sex?

这与年轻人没有更多性行为的原因相同吗？

If a married couple, after a while, is doing it twice a week, that’s thought of as .

如果一对已婚夫妇在一段时间后每周这样做两次，那就被认为是。

.

。

.

。

but there’re seven nights in a week and there’s some shortfall.

但一周有七个晚上，会有一些不足。

Is it a price control?

是价格管制吗？

I love it that I’m your sex guru.

我喜欢我是你的性专家。

BROOKS: Well, this is such speculation.

布鲁克斯：嗯，这就是这样的猜测。

I assume they’re not doing it for the same reason everybody else is.

我认为他们这样做的原因与其他人不同。

They’re exhausted and they’re tired.

他们已经筋疲力尽了，他们也累了。

Gee, I really can’t say anything.

哎呀，我实在是无话可说。

My wife’s voice is in my head like, “David, why do you speculate about that?”

我妻子的声音在我脑海中响起，“大卫，你为什么这么猜测？”

Should I think of smartphones as a kind of kryptonite, that literally they cripple our faculties?

我是否应该将智能手机视为一种氪石，它们实际上会削弱我们的能力？

If that’s the case, why should I believe in freedom of speech, freedom of religion, rule of law, democratic constitutional government?

如果是这样，我为什么要相信言论自由、宗教自由、法治、民主宪政？

As you and I both believe in.

正如你我都相信的那样。

If there’s this one kryptonite that can so take us down, does that make you doubt those other broader commitments?

如果有一个氪石可以让我们失望，这会让你怀疑其他更广泛的承诺吗？

See, in my view, it’s not a kryptonite, but what’s your take?

看，在我看来，它不是氪石，但你怎么看？

I think it’s a semi-kryptonite.

我认为它是半氪石。

If you want to get people addicted, give them irregularly timed rewards.

如果你想让人们上瘾，就给他们不定期的奖励。

They do this with mice, where they give them irregularly timed rewards, and the mice absolutely go crazy.

他们对老鼠进行了这种实验，并给予它们不定期的奖励，老鼠绝对会发疯。

But we’re not mice.

但我们不是老鼠。

We don’t favor liberalism for the mice.

我们不赞成老鼠的自由主义。

We favor them for the humans.

我们比人类更青睐它们。

When I look at my phone, I think the next text is going to be interesting.

当我看着手机时，我认为下一条短信会很有趣。

I always am addicted to that next text, to that next email, and so my attention span is shot, just like everybody else’s.

我总是对下一条短信、下一封电子邮件上瘾，所以我的注意力持续时间很短，就像其他人一样。

Listen, I’ve been totally persuaded by Jonathan Haidt that these really are bad.

听着，乔纳森·海特（Jonathan Haidt）完全说服了我，这些确实很糟糕。

When I’ve been to a hundred high schools in the last couple of years, and where they ban the phones, the students are happy, the teachers are happy, everybody is happy.

过去几年我去过一百所高中，那里禁止使用手机，学生很高兴，老师很高兴，每个人都很高兴。

Is it the only kryptonite humans face?

这是人类唯一的氪石面孔吗？

I think AI is also kryptonite in the exact same way, that if you’re a college kid, and you’re not doing any of your papers, you’re just using your GPT to write your papers — that’s kryptonite.

我认为人工智能也是氪石，就像你是一名大学生，你没有写任何论文，你只是用你的 GPT 来写你的论文 —— 这就是氪石。

Does it ruin you any more than old-style cheating?

它比老式的作弊更能毁掉你吗？

Which was very common.

这很常见。

It was bad for people, but it didn’t ruin generations, right?

这对人们来说是坏事，但它并没有毁掉几代人，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

Though, that cheating took a lot of creativity, and this cheating is total, it’s a totalistic cheating, where the model is literally doing most of your work.

不过，这种作弊需要大量的创造力，而且这种作弊是彻底的，这是一种极权主义的作弊，模型实际上完成了你的大部分工作。

I follow you on AI.

我在人工智能上关注你。

I’m 15 yards behind you the whole time.

我一直在你身后 15 码。

I think it’s generally great, but I think this one thing of robbing people of their own education is truly a serious threat.

我认为这总体上很好，但我认为剥夺人们自己的教育这件事确实是一个严重的威胁。

I’ve heard people in the AI sector from the major companies say they’re very worried that AI can be so persuasive.

我听各大公司人工智能领域的人士表示，他们非常担心人工智能的说服力如此之大。

Do you find it so persuasive?

你觉得这么有说服力吗？

Because I don’t.

因为我不。

It will teach me lots of facts, and I will defer to it, but it’s never persuaded me much with arguments, whereas humans have.

它会教给我很多事实，我会尊重它，但它从来没有用论据说服我，而人类却可以。

What’s your view?

你的看法是什么？

Is it kryptonite in that way?

是那样的氪石吗？

See, it depends what you’re writing about.

看，这取决于你写的内容。

I was with an astrophysicist recently, who worked on a problem with eight of his senior colleagues for months.

我最近和一位天体物理学家在一起，他和他的八位资深同事一起研究了几个月的问题。

They put it to AI, and with a little extra prompting, it solved their problems in a couple of hours.

他们将其输入人工智能，经过一点额外的提示，它在几个小时内解决了他们的问题。

I gather from economist friends that it can solve problems that only a few elite economists can solve.

我从经济学家朋友那里得知，它可以解决只有少数精英经济学家才能解决的问题。

What if you ask it, “What would David Brooks say?”

如果你问它“大卫·布鲁克斯会怎么说？”怎么办？

That’s what I do.

这就是我所做的。

Then it rises to the occasion.

然后它就应运而生了。

Indeed, it’s brilliant in that case.

事实上，在这种情况下它真是太棒了。

If you asked it to write a 900-word column on a topic you would write on and asked it to be like you — let’s say this is the o3 model from OpenAI — and then you ran it through Claude to improve the writing style.

如果你要求它就你想写的主题写一篇 900 字的专栏，并要求它像你一样 —— 假设这是 OpenAI 的 o3 模型 —— 然后你通过 Claude 运行它来改进写作风格。

How good does that result, in your —

这对你来说有多么好的结果——

I know you did this because I read your stuff, and you were impressed, but I was, (a) too afraid to do it because I might be impressed, but (b) it can’t possibly predict an idea I haven’t thought of yet.

我知道你这样做是因为我读了你的东西，并且给你留下了深刻的印象，但我（a）太害怕这样做，因为我可能会印象深刻，但是（b）它不可能预测我还没有想到的想法。

I hope I’m coming up with new stuff, and so I’m hoping it would be behind me, but I’m not going to try.

我希望我能想出新的东西，所以我希望它会在我身后，但我不会尝试。

How persuasive are novels to you now?

现在小说对你来说有多大说服力？

Not in your whole life, not when you were younger, but right now.

不是在你的一生中，不是在你年轻的时候，而是现在。

Do novels change how you think about things?

小说会改变你对事物的看法吗？

They can.

他们可以。

I confess, I wrote a column recently on how the novel is not as central to American life as it used to be.

我承认，我最近写了一篇专栏文章，讲述这部小说如何不再像以前那样成为美国生活的核心。

When I was in college, when a Toni Morrison novel came out, when a Philip Roth novel came out, when a Saul Bellow novel came out, when a Tom Wolfe novel came out — those were big deals.

当我上大学时，当托妮·莫里森的小说出版时，当菲利普·罗斯的小说出版时，当索尔·贝娄的小说出版时，当汤姆·沃尔夫的小说出版时——这些都是大事。

They were big cultural events.

它们是大型文化活动。

We all talked about it.

我们都讨论过。

People reviewed the reviewers, and then there were a million book reviews.

人们对书评人进行了评论，然后就有了一百万条书评。

One of the sad things about the American literary life now is, there are many fewer book review outlets, so it’s really hard for an unknown novelist to get known.

现在美国文学生活的一个悲哀就是，书评渠道少了很多，一个不知名的小说家想要出名真的很难。

Audacity is the scarce factor in your account?

大胆是您帐户中的稀缺因素吗？

I think it’s a scarce factor.

我认为这是一个稀缺因素。

I don’t know what you would think of this, but I think back to when I was a teenager in the ’70s, and I look at the movies like Apocalypse Now, The Godfather — they seem big audacious.

我不知道你会怎么想，但我回想起 70 年代我十几岁的时候，我看《现代启示录》、《教父》这样的电影——它们看起来非常大胆。

I listen to the rock songs I was listening to, “Free Bird,” “Stairway to Heaven,” “Bohemian Rhapsody” — they seem just more audacious.

我听着我正在听的摇滚歌曲，《自由鸟》、《天堂的阶梯》、《波西米亚狂想曲》——它们看起来更大胆。

Sure, a big think.

当然，一个大想法。

You look at the journalists: Tom Wolfe, Joan Didion, Hunter S.

你看看那些记者：汤姆·沃尔夫 (Tom Wolfe)、琼·迪迪恩 (Joan Didion)、亨特·S (Hunter S.

Thompson.

汤普森.

Those people couldn’t publish that stuff today because we’re less freewheeling, we’re more uptight.

那些人今天无法发布这些东西，因为我们不那么随心所欲，我们更加紧张。

It seems to me there has been a loss of audacity in the culture, and it’s been replaced by professionalism and commercialism.

在我看来，文化中的大胆精神已经消失，取而代之的是专业精神和商业主义。

Building AI is audacious, right?

构建人工智能是大胆的，对吧？

Trump, whatever you think of him — he’s clearly audacious.

特朗普，无论你怎么看他——他显然都很大胆。

You wouldn’t say the quality has left our culture, so why has it left the novel?

你不会说这种品质已经离开了我们的文化，那么为什么它离开了小说呢？

I think it’s left the humanities.

我认为它离开了人文学科。

I think the humanities have been backfooted, in part because, again, internet, all that stuff, the obvious stuff.

我认为人文学科已经倒退，部分原因是，再次，互联网，所有这些东西，显而易见的东西。

The reason you would go to become an English major was because you want to understand how human beings operate.

你之所以选择英语专业，是因为你想了解人类是如何运作的。

You want to be able to see the world.

你希望能够看到这个世界。

One of my heroes is this guy named John Ruskin, a 19th-century art critic.

我心目中的英雄之一是约翰·罗斯金 (John Ruskin)，他是一位 19 世纪的艺术评论家。

He says, for each thousand who can talk, there’s one who can think, but for each thousand who can think, there’s one who can see.

他说，每一千个能说话的人，就有一个能思考，但每一千个能思考的人，就有一个能看。

It’s that ability to see reality.

这就是看到现实的能力。

You go to Tolstoy — that guy could see reality.

你去找托尔斯泰——那个人能看到现实。

We are here talking to people.

我们在这里与人们交谈。

We could each be at home writing for them, but we’ve chosen to be talking.

我们本可以各自在家为他们写作，但我们选择了交谈。

How much are we just evolving toward an oral culture?

我们在多大程度上向口头文化发展？

There’s audacity in oral culture.

口头文化中存在着大胆的行为。

Very long podcasts, very ambitious, and it just doesn’t quite fit with the written word.

播客很长，雄心勃勃，但与书面文字不太相符。

A lot of the written word is boring or more mediocre.

很多书面文字很无聊或更平庸。

That’s the fundamental chain.

这就是基本的链条。

I listen to your podcast every week, I’ve talked to you about it, and there are several podcasts I listen to every week, so I’m not anti-podcasts.

我每周都会听你的播客，我已经和你谈过了，而且我每周都会听几个播客，所以我并不反对播客。

No, you don’t have to be anti, but it may mean the great works will be oral moving forward and not written.

不，你不必反对，但这可能意味着伟大的作品将是口头传播的，而不是书面的。

I don’t believe that.

我不相信这一点。

I mostly do audiobooks, because what do I want to hear?

我主要做有声读物，因为我想听什么？

Two guys riffing or a book by somebody who spent four or five years on?

两个人即兴演奏，还是一本花了四五年时间的人写的书？

I’m in the middle of the Buckley biography The author is a friend of mine.

我正在读巴克利传记，作者是我的一个朋友。

Tanenhaus, yes.

塔南豪斯，是的。

Sam Tanenhaus.

萨姆·塔恩豪斯。

He spent 20 years on that.

他为此花费了20年的时间。

There’s a density of knowledge and information that’s better than three hours of Joe Rogan riffing.

知识和信息的密度比乔·罗根三个小时的即兴演奏还要好。

What you’re saying now, you’ve spent X number of years, whatever your age is currently, developing that.

你现在所说的，无论你现在的年龄多大，你都花了 X 年的时间来发展这一点。

It’s more than four years on a book.

一本书花了四年多的时间。

You’ve spent 60-plus years developing your ideas, and people want to hear them.

您花了 60 多年的时间来发展您的想法，人们希望听到它们。

Yes.

是的。

I spent 60 years preparing, and you asked me about sex.

我花了60年的时间准备，而你却问我关于性的问题。

Maybe one needs 60 years to have answers to this question.

也许需要60年才能回答这个问题。

So, forget the answers to those questions.

所以，忘记这些问题的答案吧。

Now, you mentioned the Tanenhaus book.

现在，您提到了 Tanenhaus 的书。

It’s striking because you appear as a character in the book.

这很引人注目，因为你是作为书中的一个角色出现的。

I know you haven’t gotten to that part yet, but surely you remember the reality that William F.

我知道你还没有讲到这一点，但你肯定还记得 William F.

Buckley was considering making you editor of National Review.

巴克利正在考虑任命你为《国家评论》的编辑。

What would your life have been like if you had received that offer?

如果你收到了这份工作邀请，你的生活会怎样？

Would you have even taken it?

你会接受吗？

What does that alternate universe look like?

那个平行宇宙是什么样子的？

The American conservative movement is going from strength to strength.

美国保守派运动正在不断壮大。

Donald Trump is a failed real estate developer somewhere.

唐纳德·特朗普是某个地方失败的房地产开发商。

BROOKS: I was never an orthodox National Review person, that kind of conservative.

布鲁克斯：我从来都不是一个正统的《国家评论》人士，那种保守派。

I was a neoconservative, which was different.

我是一个新保守主义者，这是不同的。

Basically, you can tell what kind of conservative a person is by what year they want to go back to.

基本上，你可以通过一个人想回到哪一年来判断他是哪种保守派。

Tanenhaus says this.

塔恩豪斯这样说。

Oh, does he?

哦，是吗？

Yes.

是的。

Buckley was my mentor.

巴克利是我的导师。

We can tell that story, how that happened.

我们可以讲述这个故事，以及它是如何发生的。

I worked at National Review, and then I worked at the Wall Street Journal editorial page.

我在《国家评论》工作，然后在《华尔街日报》编辑部工作。

I went from being an old right to being a free market, Wall Street Journal sort of person.

我从一个老右派变成了一个自由市场人士、《华尔街日报》之类的人。

I never had the opportunity to think for myself until I left those places and went to a place called the Weekly Standard.

我从来没有机会独立思考，直到我离开那些地方，去了一个叫《标准周刊》的地方。

Suddenly, I could think for myself.

突然间，我可以自己思考了。

It was funny how long — because I was in my 30s — before I really thought, “What do I believe?” Not how do I argue for the Wall Street Journal position on this, or the National Review position.

有趣的是，过了多久 —— 因为我已经30多岁了 —— 我才真正思考“我相信什么？”不是我如何争论《华尔街日报》对此的立场，或《国家评论》的立场。

If you self-report that you weren’t thinking so much for yourself back then, was Buckley, in fact, a good mentor?

如果你自我报告说你当时并没有为自己考虑那么多，那么巴克利实际上是一个好导师吗？

Fantastic.

极好的。

That seems to be the test failing.

看来测试失败了。

Let’s put it this way.

这么说吧。

Let me quickly tell the story of how I met him.

让我快速讲述一下我是如何认识他的故事。

I’m with the University of Chicago.

我在芝加哥大学。

I’m a humor columnist.

我是一位幽默专栏作家。

Back then, I was funnier.

那时候的我比较搞笑。

Buckley comes to campus, and he just published a book called Overdrive, which is one of his memoirs of name-dropping the pope and David Niven and all these people.

巴克利来到校园，他刚刚出版了一本名为《Overdrive》的书，这是他的回忆录之一，其中提到了教皇、大卫·尼文和所有这些人的名字。

I wrote a parody, a mean parody, of him for being a name-dropping blowhard.

我写了一篇拙劣的戏仿，讽刺的是他是一个名声大噪的吹牛者。

Some of the jokes .

一些笑话。

.

。

.

。

the only one I remember now from that parody of long ago was, while at Yale, Buckley formed two magazines, one called the National Buckley, and one called the Buckley Review, which he merged to form the Buckley Buckley.

我现在唯一记得的那段很久以前的戏仿是，在耶鲁大学时，巴克利创办了两本杂志，一本叫做《国家巴克利》，一本叫做《巴克利评论》，他将这两家杂志合并为《巴克利巴克利》。

BROOKS: He came to campus and he said, “David Brooks, if you’re in the audience, I want to give you a job.” That was my big break.

布鲁克斯：他来到校园说：“大卫·布鲁克斯，如果你是观众，我想给你一份工作。”那是我的重大突破。

Sadly, I was not in the audience.

遗憾的是，我不在观众席中。

I called him up three years later, as I’d become more conservative, and said, “Is the offer still open?” He said, “Yes.” He hired me without asking anything about his ideology, which is his mode, because he hired Joan Didion the same way.

三年后，我变得更加保守，我给他打电话，问他：“这份工作还开放吗？”他说：“是的。”他在没有询问任何关于他的意识形态的情况下雇用了我，这就是他的模式，因为他以同样的方式雇用了琼·迪迪恩。

He hired Garry Wills the same way.

他以同样的方式聘用了加里·威尔斯。

This guy John Leonard, who’s a very great book critic, the same way.

约翰·伦纳德（John Leonard）也是一位非常出色的书评家。

Just, can the person write?

只是，人会写吗？

That was being the great mentor, that he let you go.

那是伟大的导师，他让你走了。

Yes, but a lot of people who had my job were deeply hurt when he let them go.

是的，但是当他让很多曾经担任我工作的人离开时，他们都受到了深深的伤害。

He thought they would cut him off, and they were betrayed.

他以为他们会切断他的联系，但他们被出卖了。

There was a whole series of very nasty articles about Bill written by people who felt that was a betrayal.

人们写了一系列关于比尔的非常令人讨厌的文章，认为这是一种背叛。

But I regard that as one of the great acts of mentorship — as in the great act of parenting — letting the person go and have their life.

但我认为这是伟大的指导行为之一——就像伟大的养育行为一样——让一个人走开，过自己的生活。

Was Milton Friedman a good mentor?

米尔顿·弗里德曼是一位好导师吗？

He also was a great mentor.

他也是一位伟大的导师。

What made him great?

是什么让他变得伟大？

The reason I wasn’t at the Buckley speech was I’d been hired.

我没有参加巴克利演讲的原因是我被录用了。

I was a Democratic socialist, and I was hired to go out to Stanford and debate him on national TV.

我是一名民主社会主义者，我被聘请去斯坦福大学并在国家电视台与他辩论。

If you go back, and Tyler has seen this, I think if you go on YouTube and write Milton Friedman, David Brooks —

如果你回去，泰勒看到了这个，我想如果你在 YouTube 上写下米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman)、大卫·布鲁克斯 (David Brooks)——

It’s there.

它就在那里。

— you’ll see me with this —

— 你会看到我带着这个 —

He’s younger.

他更年轻了。

BROOKS: — big afro, these 1980s glasses that looked like they were on loan from the Mount Palomar Observatory.

布鲁克斯： — 大爆炸头，这些 20 世纪 80 年代的眼镜看起来像是从帕洛玛山天文台借来的。

They were gigantic.

它们非常巨大。

Then I read something I’d read in a Robert Kutner book, and then he destroys it in six seconds.

然后我读了一些我在罗伯特·库特纳的书中读过的东西，然后他在六秒钟内毁掉了它。

Then the camera lingers on my face for about 19 seconds while I try to think of something to say.

然后镜头在我脸上停留了大约 19 秒，我试图想说什么。

That was the show.

这就是表演。

If you think about Buckley, where you disagree with him, and I don’t mean on particular issues — I feel I know that — but his method of thought, what is there in his method of thought where you would say, “I, David Brooks, diverge from Buckley in a fundamental way”?

如果你想想巴克利，你不同意他的观点，我不是指在特定问题上 ——“我觉得我知道这一点”——而是他的思维方法，在他的思维方法中，你会说“我，大卫·布鲁克斯，在根本上与巴克利有分歧”？

His gift and his curse was that he couldn’t slow down his thinking.

他的天赋和诅咒是他无法放慢思考速度。

I would see him write a column in 20 minutes, and if he wrote it for an hour, it would get no better.

我会看到他20分钟写一篇专栏，如果他写一个小时也好不到哪去。

He just moved at that speed.

他只是以那个速度移动。

It takes me two days to write a column.

我花了两天时间写一篇专栏。

It takes me 14, 20 hours.

我花了14、20个小时。

That’s one thing.

这是一回事。

Your difference with Milton Friedman, again, not on specific issues such as the New Deal, but conceptually, how is it that you think differently from how Milton did?

再说一次，你与米尔顿·弗里德曼的分歧不是在新政等具体问题上，而是在概念上，你的想法与米尔顿的做法有何不同？

Friedman — his great gift — and I think this is a libertarian gift — is that once you get inside their logical system, within their assumptive models, there’s no arguing with them.

弗里德曼——他的伟大天赋——我认为这是自由意志主义的天赋——一旦你进入他们的逻辑系统，在他们的假设模型中，就无法与他们争论。

It all fits together.

这一切都适合在一起。

I don’t believe in assumptive models.

我不相信假设模型。

I’m much less rational.

我不太理性。

I think human beings are much less rational than needed.

我认为人类的理性远远低于需要的理性。

I think they obviously respond to incentives in some ways, but often respond to incentives in no rational way.

我认为他们显然以某些方式对激励做出反应，但往往以不理性的方式对激励作出反应。

I’m, again, being more neoconservative than conservative, or more whatever you want to call it, a Humean.

再说一遍，我的立场比保守派更偏向新保守派，或者无论你怎么称呼它，我都更偏向休谟主义者。

Yes.

是的。

David Robertson.

大卫·罗伯逊.

One of the things he did, he mentioned on that podcast, was he took a mix tape and he put all sorts of music together — AC/DC, Springsteen, Berlioz — in 2.5-second increments, and people could decide right away, “That’s for me.

他在那个播客中提到，他所做的一件事是，他拿了一盘混音带，然后将各种音乐放在一起 ——AC/DC、斯普林斯汀、柏辽兹——以 2.5 秒的增量，人们可以立即决定，“这是给我的。

That’s not for me.” I felt like screaming at my car radio, “Why 2.5 seconds?

那不适合我。”我真想对着汽车收音机尖叫：“为什么是 2.5 秒？

Why not 0.5 seconds?” Because that’s how we make up our minds.

为什么不是0.5秒？”因为这就是我们下定决心的方式。

That aesthetic sense of perception, to me, is how people make up their minds in all sorts of circumstances, including economic circumstances.

对我来说，这种审美感知是人们在各种情况下做出决定的方式，包括经济情况。

You were a reporter covering a crime beat on Chicago’s South Side, right?

您是一名报道芝加哥南区犯罪事件的记者，对吗？

What was that like phenomenologically?

从现象学角度看，那是什么样的？

Were you thinking this is the Milton Friedman rational model?

您认为这是米尔顿·弗里德曼理性模型吗？

Or how did it shape you?

或者它如何塑造了你？

No, because mostly what I covered was incredible idiots.

不，因为我报道的大部分都是令人难以置信的白痴。

I covered —

我涵盖了 —

You mean the criminals or the police or both?

你是指罪犯还是警察还是两者兼而有之？

Well, actually, one of the humbling things was, I’d come out of the University of Chicago, and I’m sitting there with the detectives in all these different police stations on the southwest side of Chicago, and I realized the detectives are as smart as my professors.

嗯，实际上，令人谦卑的事情之一是，我从芝加哥大学毕业，我和芝加哥西南区所有不同警察局的侦探坐在一起，我意识到这些侦探和我的教授一样聪明。

I was very impressed by them.

他们给我留下了深刻的印象。

A lot of the criminals I covered — they were criminals because they hadn’t thought something through.

我报道过的很多罪犯——他们之所以是罪犯，是因为他们没有深思熟虑。

For example, I covered a guy who worked at McDonald’s, and he conducted an armed robbery at the McDonald’s where he worked.

例如，我报道了一个在麦当劳工作的人，他在他工作的麦当劳进行了武装抢劫。

BROOKS: They said, “John, we know you.” Another couple of guys who broke out of some jail, it must have been, and they decided they were hungry, so they ate at the restaurant nearby, and they ate in the window booth and were caught.

布鲁克斯：他们说，“约翰，我们认识你。”另外几个越狱的家伙，一定是这样，他们觉得自己饿了，所以他们在附近的餐馆吃饭，然后他们在靠窗的摊位吃饭，结果被抓了。

I covered a lot of that.

我涵盖了很多内容。

I was not planning on being a journalist.

我原本没有打算成为一名记者。

I’m still not really a journalist, but to come home every day as a police reporter with an amazing story about something happening in a great city —

我仍然不是一名真正的记者，但每天以一名警察记者的身份回家，讲述一个伟大城市发生的令人惊奇的故事 ——

How did that influence your columns?

这对您的专栏有何影响？

You had to write up crime reports, right?

你必须写犯罪报告，对吗？

I didn’t even write.

我什至没有写。

I called them in.

我叫他们进来。

Called them in.

把他们叫进来了。

It was for something called the City News Bureau.

这是为了一个叫做城市新闻局的机构。

The slogan was, “If your mother says she loves you, check it out.” I remember I would call in, and this was back in an earlier era, where I would call in.

口号是：“如果你妈妈说她爱你，请检查一下。”我记得我会打电话过来，那是在较早的时代，我会打电话过来。

I’d see a body that had been killed in some way, and the editor back at the desk would say, “What color were the socks?” I would say, “I don’t know, I didn’t see that.” They would say, “You are the worst reporter who’s ever worked here,” and they would just scream at you.

我会看到一具以某种方式被杀害的尸体，回到办公桌前的编辑会说，“袜子是什么颜色的？”我会说：“我不知道，我没看到。”他们会说，“你是在这里工作过的最糟糕的记者”，然后他们就会对你尖叫。

That was part of the —

那是 的一部分——

That was good for you as mentorship or bad for you?

作为指导，这对你来说是好事还是坏事？

I’m a little sensitive, so that part was bad.

我有点敏感，所以那部分很糟糕。

It got you used to the online world, right?

它让你习惯了网络世界，对吗？

I’ll say one thing, especially for those academics who are listening.

我要说一件事，特别是对于那些正在倾听的学者。

Listen, I totally respect randomized controlled experiments and the sorts of things academics do, but journalism has a mode of knowing that’s equally valid, and that is the interview.

听着，我完全尊重随机对照实验和学术界所做的事情，但新闻业有一种同样有效的认知模式，那就是采访。

I sometimes get frustrated with social scientists who give us data about populations of people, but don’t take the time to interview any particular individual.

有时，我对社会科学家感到沮丧，他们为我们提供了有关人群的数据，但没有花时间采访任何特定的个人。

I’ve had some interviews that were life-changing and that I remember to this day.

一些采访改变了我的生活，至今我还记得。

My best interview, or at least my funniest, was with a comedian named Jackie Gleason, which was just two hours of his jokes.

我最好的采访，或者至少是我最有趣的采访，是与一位名叫杰基·格里森的喜剧演员的采访，他的笑话只有两个小时。

Now, the 1990s — you’re working for the Wall Street Journal in Brussels, I believe.

现在，20 世纪 90 年代——我相信你正在布鲁塞尔的《华尔街日报》工作。

Who was your mentor there?

你在那里的导师是谁？

And what did you learn from them?

你从他们身上学到了什么？

By then, the adult world had cast me off.

那时，成人的世界已经抛弃了我。

I think I stopped having mentors.

我想我不再有导师了。

I consider Buckley and Friedman my mentors because I was young and impressionable.

我认为巴克利和弗里德曼是我的导师，因为我年轻且易受影响。

I had bosses, and of course, that matters all through life.

我有老板，当然，这对我的一生都很重要。

At The Wall Street Journal, my two bosses were a guy named Robert Bartley and a guy named George Malone.

在《华尔街日报》，我的两位老板分别是罗伯特·巴特利和乔治·马龙。

They were farm boys from Iowa and Indiana.

他们是来自爱荷华州和印第安纳州的农场男孩。

I still have many mentors, and they’re mostly younger.

我还有很多导师，而且他们大多更年轻。

They teach me things like AI.

他们教我诸如人工智能之类的东西。

I think you need more mentors as you get older, actually, not fewer.

我认为随着年龄的增长，你实际上需要更多的导师，而不是更少。

Yes.

是的。

this may pertain to the subject.

这可能与主题有关。

I read this book, Snowball, about Warren Buffett.

我读了这本书《雪球》，是关于沃伦·巴菲特的。

What’s remarkable about him was his ability to grab onto whoever could teach him.

他的非凡之处在于他能够抓住任何可以教他的人。

Early, when he was a socially awkward kid, he grabs onto Dale Carnegie.

早期，当他还是一个不善社交的孩子时，他就迷上了戴尔·卡内基。

This guy provides him with a system to socialize.

这家伙为他提供了一个社交系统。

Then he gloms onto Ben Graham and his investing model.

然后他谈到了本杰明·格雷厄姆和他的投资模型。

Then he gloms onto Charlie Munger.

然后他迷上了查理·芒格。

You think, “Oh, he’s still glomming on in his 40s.”

你会想，“哦，他已经 40 多岁了，依然光彩照人。”

I have a few questions about politics.

我有几个关于政治的问题。

Are we allowed?

我们被允许吗？

Sure.

当然。

You may have to pay me double.

你可能要付我双倍的钱。

You mentioned before that you used to be a neoconservative.

您之前提到过您曾经是一个新保守主义者。

Now we’re in 2025, and we see Russia has proven quite weak in some ways.

现在已经到了 2025 年，我们看到俄罗斯在某些方面已经被证明相当弱。

Iran, extremely weak.

伊朗，极其弱小。

Hezbollah, mostly devastated.

真主党几乎被摧毁了。

Hamas, on its heels.

哈马斯紧随其后。

I’m still consistent with that belief.

我仍然坚持这个信念。

To me, neocon was a specific group of people.

对我来说，新保守派是一个特定的人群。

They tend to have grown up in the 1920s and ’30s, usually Jewish from Brooklyn.

他们大多在 20 世纪 20 年代和 30 年代长大，通常是来自布鲁克林的犹太人。

Usually, they went to City College of New York.

通常，他们就读于纽约城市学院。

In those days in City College, they were all Marxists, but there were Stalinists, who were the dumber Marxists, and there were Trotskyites, who were the smarter Marxists.

那时候在城市学院，他们都是马克思主义者，但是有斯大林主义者，他们是更愚蠢的马克思主义者，也有托洛茨基主义者，他们是更聪明的马克思主义者。

They ate in different alcoves in the cafeteria.

他们在自助餐厅的不同凹室里吃饭。

Because the Trotskyites were smarter, the Stalinists did something intelligent, which is, they said, “You’re not allowed to talk to the Trotskyites.”

因为托洛茨基分子更聪明，斯大林主义者做了一些聪明的事情，他们说，“你不被允许与托洛茨基分子交谈。”

You’re sounding more and more neocon the more you go on.

你越说越听起来越来越新保守主义。

I know, I’m getting into it.

我知道，我正在投入其中。

BROOKS: There was a guy named James Q.

布鲁克斯：有一个人叫詹姆斯·Q。

Wilson, who wrote a great book called The Moral Sense, which I highly recommend.

威尔逊写了一本很棒的书，名叫《道德感》，我强烈推荐这本书。

Irving Kristol’s wife was Gertrude Himmelfarb, a historian, really, of how morality changes across civilizations.

欧文·克里斯托尔（Irving Kristol）的妻子格特鲁德·希梅尔法布（Gertrude Himmelfarb）是一位真正研究道德如何在不同文明之间变化的历史学家。

That strikes me as absolutely essentially true.

我觉得这绝对是正确的。

I don’t think it’s possible to understand America today without understanding the fact that most people used to feel held within a moral order.

我认为，如果不了解大多数人过去感觉受到道德秩序约束的事实，就不可能了解今天的美国。

So, we’re all going to sign up for being neocons, but what’s the fundamental dimension where maybe you’re not a neocon if there is one?

所以，我们都会报名成为新保守派，但如果有的话，你可能不是新保守派的基本维度是什么？

I root for Barack Obama and Joe Biden.

我支持巴拉克·奥巴马和乔·拜登。

I don’t know if that would’ve flown.

我不知道那是否会飞。

Just to go on a little, they were right about some things about foreign policy.

继续说下去，他们关于外交政策的一些事情是正确的。

They were right about the Soviet Union, that it was worth trying to push back and —

他们对苏联的看法是正确的，值得尝试反击，并且 ——

Just stand up to evils, even naively, right?

勇敢地面对邪恶，哪怕是天真，对吧？

In my view, they were right about the idea that the internal nature of regimes determines the foreign policy of those regimes, that a dictatorship is bound to be more dangerous than a democracy.

在我看来，他们的观点是正确的，即政权的内部性质决定了这些政权的外交政策，独裁必然比民主更危险。

What they and I were wrong about was the belief that we could export democracy from outside.

他们和我错误地认为我们可以从外部输出民主。

Occupation — you’re like a neocon minus the occupation status.

职业 — 你就像一个没有职业地位的新保守派。

I’m a pacifist neocon.

我是一个和平主义新保守派。

I do think they were right about not totally trusting capitalism.

我确实认为他们不完全信任资本主义是正确的。

Irving Kristol wrote a book, Two Cheers for Capitalism.

欧文·克里斯托尔写了一本书，《为资本主义欢呼》。

I think if you go back and read some of the writings from that generation, it’s worth remembering they were not Republicans.

我认为，如果你回去阅读那一代人的一些著作，值得记住的是他们不是共和党人。

They were a break-off from liberalism.

他们与自由主义决裂。

I think they were skeptical and realist and a sophisticated break-off from what was conventional 1960s liberals.

我认为他们是怀疑论者和现实主义者，与 20 世纪 60 年代的传统自由主义者有着复杂的分歧。

I promised you only one question about Trump.

我答应过你只问一个关于特朗普的问题。

Trump has made a mess of our relations with our European allies, but in fact, it’s led them to spend more money on defense.

特朗普把我们与欧洲盟友的关系搞得一团糟，但事实上，这导致他们在国防上花更多的钱。

In my view, that’s a good thing.

在我看来，这是一件好事。

I’ve spoken to a lot of European elites who say they think it’s a great thing.

我与很多欧洲精英交谈过，他们认为这是一件伟大的事情。

These are mostly people who hate Trump, but they say, “We are secretly thankful to Trump that he’s now letting us do this.”

这些人大多讨厌特朗普，但他们说，“我们暗自感谢特朗普，他现在让我们这样做。”

First, you’re asking me to hive off the moral degradation of America, which to me is a big deal.

首先，你要求我摆脱美国的道德堕落，这对我来说是一件大事。

Of course it is, but what does the list have to look like for you to make the trade-off?

当然是这样，但是清单必须是什么样子才能让您做出权衡呢？

First, let me get the headline before we get to your caveats.

首先，在我们讨论您的注意事项之前，让我先了解一下标题。

Charles de Gaulle wrote a memoir, and in that first sentence of the memoir, his memoir, was, “All my life, I’ve had a certain idea about France.” I would say all my life, I’ve had a certain idea about America, that we’re sometimes a foolish nation.

戴高乐写了一本回忆录，在他的回忆录的第一句话中，“我一生对法国都有一定的了解。”我想说，在我的一生中，我对美国一直有一种看法，我们有时是一个愚蠢的国家。

We’re often a naive nation, but we’re rarely a cruel and ill-intentioned nation.

我们常常是一个天真的国家，但我们很少是一个残酷和恶意的国家。

We may disagree about this, but I thought the decision, at least temporarily, to get rid of PEPFAR was deliberate and cruel.

我们可能对此意见不一，但我认为，至少暂时取消总统防治艾滋病紧急救援计划的决定是经过深思熟虑且残酷的。

No, we agree.

不，我们同意。

Has led to, already, tens of thousands, if not hundreds of thousands, of deaths.

已经导致数万人甚至数十万人死亡。

The treatment of Zelensky, cruel and malevolent.

泽连斯基的待遇残忍恶毒。

I wake up with a lot of malevolence, but I do have to concede that Trump is never totally wrong.

我醒来时充满了恶意，但我确实必须承认特朗普从来都没有完全错误。

When he said USAID was a poorly managed program, that was true.

当他说美国国际开发署是一个管理不善的项目时，这是事实。

It was a poorly managed program that happened to save a lot of lives.

这是一个管理不善的计划，但却挽救了很多人的生命。

What do you think is the point estimate of the probability that at the end of the term, you basically say he got enough things right, that it was worth it?

你认为在学期结束时，你基本上说他做对了足够多的事情并且值得的概率的点估计是多少？

That I will say that?

我会这么说吗？

That you will say it.

你会说出来。

You can bury me now.

你现在可以埋葬我了。

I will not be saying that.

我不会这么说。

We agree there’s something, right now, quite screwed up in the American psyche.

我们一致认为，现在美国人的心理中有些东西完全搞砸了。

Maybe sometimes it’s hard to diagnose, but it seems to me often fairly fundamental.

也许有时很难诊断，但在我看来，这通常是相当基本的。

Should we consider the uncomfortable idea that only major involvement in a war — a war with true danger, not an excursion — that only that would reinvigorate the American spirit?

我们是否应该考虑这样一个令人不安的想法：只有大量卷入战争——一场真正危险的战争，而不是一次远足——只有这样才能重振美国精神？

Is that a serious idea or is that just an awful thought?

这是一个严肃的想法还是只是一个糟糕的想法？

Is there any truth to it?

这有什么道理吗？

Yes, I used to think if we had a war with, like Canada, somebody I thought we could take, then that would unify us, but now we might have a war with Canada, so I’m .

是的，我曾经认为，如果我们与加拿大等我认为可以占领的国家发生战争，那么我们就会团结起来，但现在我们可能会与加拿大发生战争，所以我是这样。

.

。

.

。

If you look at the history of the world, there are two things that don’t bring countries together, or at least that make countries uglier.

如果你看看世界历史，有两件事不会让国家团结在一起，或者至少让国家变得更加丑陋。

I would say pandemics and wars are among them.

我想说流行病和战争就是其中之一。

I’m not a believer that you go to war to save the culture of your country.

我不相信你要通过战争来拯救你的国家的文化。

Not with that intent, but could that be the end result?

虽然不是这个目的，但这会是最终的结果吗？

World War II, Korean War.

第二次世界大战、朝鲜战争。

Arguably, that would result —

可以说，这会导致 ——

I would like to see Americans who oppose Donald Trump create a mass movement in the way Israelis created a mass movement against Netanyahu’s judicial reform, in the way Filipinos created a mass movement against Marcos.

我希望看到反对唐纳德·特朗普的美国人发起一场群众运动，就像以色列人发起一场反对内塔尼亚胡司法改革的群众运动，就像菲律宾人发起一场反对马科斯的群众运动一样。

I think that would have an enormously positive effect on the body politics.

我认为这将对身体政治产生巨大的积极影响。

For those of us who oppose Donald Trump to have to articulate our principles, to organize, to create a civic structure across class, a civic structure to come up with an alternative vision that’s better than the elites who betrayed you.

对于我们这些反对唐纳德·特朗普的人来说，必须阐明我们的原则，组织起来，建立一个跨阶级的公民结构，一个能够提出比背叛你的精英更好的替代愿景的公民结构。

What is the kind of shock that will work?

什么样的冲击才有效？

I gave you all the statistics of how sad we are.

我给了你们所有关于我们有多悲伤的统计数据。

My analysis is, there’s an attachment theorist named John Bowlby who said that all of life is a series of daring explorations from a secure base.

我的分析是，有一位名叫约翰·鲍尔比（John Bowlby）的依恋理论家说，所有的生活都是在安全的基础上进行的一系列大胆的探索。

That secure base for most of us is a secure attachment to mom and dad, a secure devotion to a specific place, the place that’s sacred to us.

对于我们大多数人来说，安全的基础是对父母的安全依恋，对特定地方的安全奉献，对我们来说神圣的地方。

Assured devotion to our nation and confidence that our nation stands for something good.

确保对我们国家的忠诚，并相信我们的国家代表着美好的事物。

Secure implantation in, as I said, a moral order.

正如我所说，确保植入道德秩序。

Two-parent families seem to be doing quite well.

双亲家庭似乎过得还不错。

It’s a problem that there’re fewer of them.

问题在于它们的数量较少。

That’s a problem.

这是一个问题。

That is the core problem.

这是核心问题。

But within the two-parent families, it seems above average to me by historical standards.

但在双亲家庭中，以历史标准来看，我认为这似乎高于平均水平。

The lack of a secure base, just like social suffering everywhere, is not evenly distributed.

缺乏安全基础，就像各地的社会苦难一样，分布不均。

People with high school degrees die 15 years sooner than people with college degrees.

拥有高中学历的人比拥有大学学历的人早死 15 年。

People with high school degrees are five times less likely to get married.

拥有高中学历的人结婚的可能性要低五倍。

They’re much more likely to get divorced.

他们离婚的可能性更大。

They’re five times more likely to die of opiate addiction.

他们死于阿片成瘾的可能性是其他人的五倍。

They’re 2.4 times more likely to say they have no friends.

他们说自己没有朋友的可能性是其他人的 2.4 倍。

And the shock that will get us out of that is most likely to be what?

而最有可能让我们摆脱困境的冲击是什么？

In my view, individuals, like nations, come back through a process of rupture and repair.

在我看来，个人就像国家一样，要经历一个破裂和修复的过程。

You go through a hard time.

你经历一段艰难的时期。

When I ask people, “Tell me about a time that made you who you are,” nobody ever says to me, “I took this vacation in Hawaii.

当我问人们“请告诉我一段让你成为现在这样的人的经历”时，没有人对我说：“我在夏威夷度假。

That was awesome.

太棒了。

That made me who I am.” No, they went through a hard time.

这让我成为了现在的我。”不，他们经历了一段艰难的时期。

Two last questions.

最后两个问题。

The first one is very easy.

第一个很简单。

How are we actually going to get out of the fertility crisis?

我们如何真正摆脱生育危机？

Well, you’re the sex communicator.

好吧，你是性传播者。

I have not seen anything that particularly works besides we make everybody turn Ultraorthodox Jewish.

除了我们让每个人都变成极端正统的犹太人之外，我还没有看到任何特别有效的方法。

Or Amish.

或者阿米什人。

Or Amish.

或者阿米什人。

Amish would be great.

阿米什人会很棒。

Some religious revival — that would do it.

某种宗教复兴————就可以了。

In my view, that’s not about money, though money is part it.

在我看来，这与钱无关，尽管钱是其中的一部分。

It’s about, “Wow, look at all these great restaurants.

它是关于，“哇，看看所有这些很棒的餐厅。

I don’t want to miss this.” That’s what I saw when I lived in Europe and saw the fertility crash.

我不想错过这个。”这就是我住在欧洲时看到的生育率崩溃的情况。

That’s a genuinely serious problem barring some sort of religious revival.

这是一个真正严重的问题，除非出现某种形式的宗教复兴。

Last question.

最后一个问题。

What will you do next?

接下来你会做什么？

Play for the New York Mets.

为纽约大都会队效力。

No, my next book is on motivation.

不，我的下一本书是关于动机的。

My belief is that we vastly overvalue the power of intelligence.

我相信我们过分高估了智力的力量。

We know a lot about emotions, but we don’t know a lot about what they call conation, which is where our desires come from.

我们对情绪了解很多，但对所谓的意动（我们的欲望的来源）知之甚少。

To me, what you desire is the most important thing about you.

对我来说，你所渴望的就是你最重要的事情。

Augustine said, “We’re not primarily thinking creatures.

奥古斯丁说：“我们主要不是有思想的生物。

We’re primarily desiring creatures.” What you desire determines what you believe.

我们主要是渴望生物。”你的愿望决定你相信什么。

So, I’d like to know how to ramp up desires, how to be motivational.

所以，我想知道如何增强欲望，如何激励。

I said, “When you’re hiring somebody, what do you ask them?” He said, “After the interview, I walk out, and I say, Was that person a force of nature?” They want to know who’s going to run through walls.

我说：“当你雇用某人时，你会问他们什么？”他说，“采访结束后，我走出去，我说，那个人是自然力量吗？”他们想知道谁会穿墙而过。

You have a great question in that book: Are you ambitious?

那本书中有一个很好的问题：你有野心吗？

People are not going to lie about that.

人们不会对此撒谎。

I ran into an interviewer, and he wanted to test people’s moral character.

我遇到一个面试官，他想测试人的道德品质。

His question was, “Tell me about a time you told the truth and it hurt you.” So, I used to tell my Yale students, “If you can fake that one, you can get a job.”

他的问题是，“告诉我一次你说实话却伤害了你的经历。”所以，我曾经告诉我的耶鲁学生，“如果你能假装那个，你就能找到一份工作。”

David Brooks, thank you very much.

大卫·布鲁克斯，非常感谢你。

“David, have we reached or passed peak broad-based human intellect?”

“大卫，我们是否已经达到或超过了人类广泛智力的顶峰？”

Wow.

哇。

No, I’m with you on AI, that it’s an introduction of a new form of intelligence in the world, and it’s going to unbalance and make us smarter.

不，我同意你关于人工智能的看法，它在世界上引入了一种新的智能形式，它会打破平衡，让我们变得更聪明。

If I have a tool that can help me answer questions, I think we’ll still store it in our brain.

如果我有一个可以帮助我回答问题的工具，我想我们仍然会将它存储在我们的大脑中。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I think there’s the sense that once there was a Goethe, a John Milton.

我认为有一种感觉，那就是曾经有一个歌德，一个约翰·弥尔顿。

Maybe today, that’s harder.

也许今天，这更难了。

There was a peak for that kind of intellect, and now everyone’s so specialized, so I tend to agree we passed that peak.

这种智力曾经有过一个顶峰，现在每个人都如此专业，所以我倾向于同意我们已经过了那个顶峰。

Have you read your blog?

你读过你的博客吗？

BROOKS: “Things I’m reading: Swedish basket making, Austrian economics, astrophysics.” You’re the omnivore.

布鲁克斯：“我正在读的东西：瑞典的篮子制作、奥地利的经济学、天体物理学。”你是杂食动物。

I think, on the contrary, that in an age of specialization, it’s got to be an advantage to be a generalist.

相反，我认为，在专业化的时代，成为多面手一定是一种优势。

The problem with being a generalist — and as a journalist, it’s sort of what I am — is you have to understand the whole field, and you’ve got to know who’s over here on this side of the field, who’s over there.

作为一名多面手——作为一名记者，这就是我的问题——你必须了解整个领域，你必须知道谁在场的这边，谁在那边。

When you try to capture the field, you don’t want to take too many risks.

当你试图占领这个领域时，你不想冒太多风险。

You want to go right down the middle of what’s conventional within the field, rather than picking some Loony Tune.

你想要直接进入该领域的传统内容，而不是选择一些疯狂的曲调。

Here’s a question for both of us.

这是我们俩的问题。

I’ll answer it first.

我先回答一下。

“What do the two of you admire about each other?” I would say, when any question or topic comes up, that you put what is humane about the issue first, and that this is truly internalized.

“你们两个互相欣赏对方什么？”我想说，当出现任何问题或话题时，你首先要把这个问题的人性化放在第一位，这才是真正内化的。

It’s not just a habit you force on yourself.

这不仅仅是你强迫自己养成的习惯。

It may have somewhat been that at first, which is pretty common, but it is you now, and it’s the most defining feature of you.

一开始可能是这样，这很常见，但现在是你，这是你最重要的特征。

That would be my answer.

这就是我的答案。

Wow.

哇。

That is the person I’d like to be, actually, so I find that very honoring.

事实上，这就是我想成为的人，所以我觉得这非常荣幸。

Thank you.

谢谢。

Somebody said, actually, in that book, that he didn’t know anybody with more conceptual models in your head that you can apply to any situation.

实际上，在那本书中有人说，他不知道谁的头脑中有更多可以应用于任何情况的概念模型。

I would just say the one feature I admire more than any others is to be a lifelong learner.

我只想说，我最欣赏的一个特点就是成为一名终身学习者。

Here’s one.

这是一个。

I hope it offends no one in the audience.

我希望这不会冒犯观众。

This is from Ted.

这是特德发来的。

“To David, would you agree with Tyler that New York City is no longer a cultural center of America?” The cultural center, I would say.

“大卫，你同意泰勒的观点吗？纽约市不再是美国的文化中心？”我想说的是文化中心。

It’s a cultural center, really.

这确实是一个文化中心。

My family has been here for five generations, so that’s a tough one.

我的家族在这里已经有五代人了，所以这是一个艰难的时期。

I would say I think New York City — to the extent that America has a cultural center, which I’m not sure it does anymore — I would still say New York City is (a) the cultural center, (b) the most dynamic city in America.

我想说，我认为纽约市 —— 美国有一个文化中心，但我不确定它现在是否还有 —— 我仍然会说纽约市是（a）文化中心，（b）美国最具活力的城市。

But, and it pains me to say this, I do think, if you ask me the most dynamic city in the world, given my experience, I would have to say London is more dynamic than New York.

但是，说起来我很痛苦，我确实认为，如果你问我世界上最具活力的城市，根据我的经验，我不得不说伦敦比纽约更有活力。

I think London has gotten considerably worse in the last five to ten years, actually.

事实上，我认为伦敦在过去五到十年里变得更加糟糕。

China aside, which is just a different comparison, I would say the Bay Area.

除了中国之外，这只是一个不同的比较，我会说湾区。

Interesting.

有趣的。

What truly influences our life?

真正影响我们生活的是什么？

A lot of your early answers were about social media and phones.

您早期的很多答案都与社交媒体和手机有关。

However good or bad you think it is, we talked about AI.

无论你认为它是好还是坏，我们都讨论了人工智能。

Those are ideas from there, not here.

这些想法来自那里，而不是这里。

Right, but they’re technical ideas.

是的，但它们是技术想法。

Sure, but that’s what it is.

当然可以，但事实就是如此。

The Bay Area is incredibly insular when it comes to political and other things.

在政治和其他方面，湾区极其孤立。

Maybe those are, right now, the less important ideas, at least temporarily.

也许这些现在是不太重要的想法，至少暂时是这样。

We’ve turned political idea-making over to goodness knows what or whom, but we’ve done it.

我们已经将政治理念的制定交给了天知道是什么或谁，但我们已经做到了。

You know who is from Queens, right?

你知道谁来自皇后区，对吧？

Right.

正确的。

You can’t shake me off my .

你无法摆脱我。

.

。

.

。

I’m the only person.

我是唯一的人。

I live in DC.

我住在华盛顿。

I come up here, I get off at Penn Station.

我到这里来，在宾州车站下车。

I’m on 8th Avenue and 33rd Street, which is god-awful ugly.

我在第 8 大道和第 33 街交汇处，那里非常丑陋。

I think, “Oh, my heart rate can go down now.

我想，“哦，我的心率现在可以下降了。

I’m with my people.”

我和我的人民在一起。”

I still think New York operates at a pace that no other city operates.

我仍然认为纽约的运作速度是其他城市所没有的。

“How does a greater adoption of AI influence political party realignment?”

“更多地采用人工智能如何影响政党重组？”

Hmm.

唔。

I’m not so much of the belief that technology influences that stuff as other people are.

我不像其他人那样相信技术会影响这些东西。

I don’t think social media has .

我认为社交媒体没有。

.

。

.

。

It’s had a negative effect on society in all sorts of ways.

它以各种方式对社会产生了负面影响。

I can say it may have weakened the power of the mainstream media and created more fringe, but I think what influences people is their direct lived experience, not so much media.

我可以说它可能削弱了主流媒体的力量并创造了更多边缘，但我认为影响人们的是他们直接的生活经历，而不是媒体。

Now, I don’t even mean social media; I mean all media.

现在，我什至不是指社交媒体；而是指社交媒体。我的意思是所有媒体。

I was at a conference — many years ago, decades ago — of sexologists.

我参加了一个性学家会议——“很多年前，几十年前”。

You would have felt right at home.

你会有宾至如归的感觉。

You would have been right at home.

你本来就在家里。

I knew —

我知道 ——

A more boring group of people you never want to meet.

一群你永远不想见到的更无聊的人。

— you’re holding back your wisdom from us.

— 你向我们隐瞒了你的智慧。

One of the things I learned from them is that if you had looked at the media in the ’60s, you would have thought sexual behavior changed radically because suddenly there was porn everywhere, there was nudity everywhere.

我从他们身上学到的一件事是，如果你看过 60 年代的媒体，你会认为性行为发生了根本性的变化，因为突然间到处都是色情内容，到处都是裸体。

But actually, sexual behavior changed in World War I and World War II.

但实际上，性行为在第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战中发生了变化。

It was the actual act of going to France.

这是去法国的实际行为。

Not Germany.

不是德国。

Not Germany, except for the king.

不是德国，除了国王。

It’s not something that you consume in the media.

这不是你在媒体上消费的东西。

It’s things that happen actually in your actual life that change behavior in such ways.

正是在你的现实生活中实际发生的事情才能以这种方式改变你的行为。

If there’s going to be a political realignment, it’ll be because of what happened that caused MAGA.

如果要进行政治重组，那将是因为发生了导致 MAGA 的事件。

Here’s my follow-up.

这是我的后续行动。

Won’t AI make us more objective?

人工智能不会让我们更加客观吗？

At least, the current models — they seem to be more objective than the New York Times.

至少，目前的模型 ——它们似乎比《纽约时报》更客观。

If you ask them a question, they’re rarely crazy.

如果你问他们问题，他们很少会发疯。

They give you pretty good answers to a lot of controversial questions.

他们为许多有争议的问题提供了很好的答案。

I don’t always agree, but they seem to me the most objective source out there.

我并不总是同意，但在我看来，它们是最客观的来源。

I haven’t really thought about that.

我还没有真正考虑过这一点。

As a person who gets paid by the New York Times, I have to know that a lot of their data is stolen from, is taken from the New York Times.

作为一个接受《纽约时报》报酬的人，我必须知道他们的很多数据是从《纽约时报》窃取的。

They read you because they love you.

他们读你是因为他们爱你。

I find they’re blander, though.

不过，我发现它们比较平淡。

There’s all this hedging.

这就是所有这些对冲。

They don’t want to offend anybody.

他们不想冒犯任何人。

I don’t like AI because they want to please you.

我不喜欢人工智能，因为他们想取悦你。

I tried Claude and that Chinese DeepSeek one.

我尝试了 Claude 和中国的 DeepSeek 。

That was too nice to me.

这对我来说太好了。

Maybe that is objective.

也许这是客观的。

Maybe that is.

也许是这样。

Here’s a longer question.

这是一个更长的问题。

“You’ve convinced me that many of America’s ills are social in nature, not economic.

“你让我相信，美国的许多弊病本质上是社会问题，而不是经济问题。

My question: What does this imply for those of us pursuing large-scale change?

我的问题：这对我们这些追求大规模变革的人意味着什么？

What’s the political agenda that I could spend a career promoting to help all this?” Simple question.

我可以用我的职业生涯来推动什么政治议程来帮助这一切？”简单的问题。

Let’s ask ChatGPT, right?

我们去问问ChatGPT吧？

Get an objective answer.

得到一个客观的答案。

I do think our core problems are sociological and cultural and psychological and moral.

我确实认为我们的核心问题是社会学、文化、心理和道德。

If you wanted to work on a core problem, rebuilding social trust — if you can figure out how to do that, it would be an awesome contribution.

如果你想解决一个核心问题，重建社会信任——如果你能弄清楚如何做到这一点，那将是一个了不起的贡献。

Here’s one I’ll paraphrase.

这是我要解释的一个。

The New York City government has a lot of influence and resources.

纽约市政府拥有很大的影响力和资源。

Why are not more ambitious people determined to become mayor?

为什么没有更有野心的人决心成为市长？

There’s at least one, right?

至少有一个，对吗？

Yes.

是的。

It seems like it’s a somewhat empty field.

似乎这是一个有点空旷的领域。

They’re ambitious.

他们雄心勃勃。

I’m not sure they’re skilled.

我不确定他们是否熟练。

Well, (a) it’s a super hard job.

嗯，（a）这是一项非常艰苦的工作。

When Rudy Giuliani was mayor, I would travel around in the van with him and just watch him.

当鲁迪·朱利安尼担任市长时，我会和他一起开着面包车四处旅行，只是看着他。

To do New York — all the boroughs you’re handling on a day-to-day basis, such a level of economic, social, cultural, demographic diversity — it’s mind-boggling.

对于纽约来说——你每天要处理的所有行政区，其经济、社会、文化、人口多样性水平如此之高——这是令人难以置信的。

“Where is it you want to travel to next, and why?”

“你接下来想去哪里，为什么？”

I should ask you that question because my wife and I are trying to plan something.

我应该问你这个问题，因为我和我的妻子正在计划一些事情。

We’re thinking of Sicily; I’ve never been to Sicily.

我们想到的是西西里岛；我从未去过西西里岛。

But you’ve told me, and I’m persuaded because I’ve asked many other people that, where should I go?

但你告诉我，我被说服了，因为我问过很多其他人，我应该去哪里？

I’ve never been to Japan, and I would like to go somewhere.

我没去过日本，我想去一个地方。

It’s always a drag when you fly a long way, and when you get out of the airport, it feels like back home.

当你飞长途时总是很累，当你走出机场时，感觉就像回到了家。

I want something that feels foreign, and I gather Japan is beautiful and different.

我想要一些有异国情调的东西，而且我觉得日本很美丽而且与众不同。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Sicily and Japan are two of my favorite places.

西西里岛和日本是我最喜欢的两个地方。

Oh, really?

哦真的吗？

They’re each quite manageable in terms of expense, safety, just in general.

总的来说，它们在费用、安全性方面都相当可控。

You’re not going to have any problems in either one.

两者都不会有任何问题。

Sicily is this amazing mix of Norman, Arabic, Italian, North African cultures, still vitally diverse in that manner.

西西里岛是诺曼文化、阿拉伯文化、意大利文化和北非文化的奇妙融合，而且仍然充满活力。

Arguably the best food in Italy.

可以说是意大利最好的食物。

Incredible Greek ruins.

令人难以置信的希腊遗址。

Make sure you go to Siracusa, avoid Taormina, and I even love Palermo.

确保你去锡拉库扎，避开陶尔米纳，我什至喜欢巴勒莫。

I think it’s fantastic as a semi-modern Italian city in the 20th, 19th-century sense.

我认为作为 20、19 世纪意义上的半现代意大利城市，这是非常棒的。

So, I would recommend that.

所以，我会推荐这样做。

I will see you at the Four Seasons of northern Ghana.

我会在加纳北部的四个季节见到你。

I publicly thank you.

我公开感谢你。

Tyler has something called Tyler Cowen’s Ethnic Dining Guide, especially in the DC area I guess you’re in New York, too.

泰勒有一本叫做《泰勒·考恩的民族餐饮指南》的书，尤其是在华盛顿地区，我想你也在纽约。

Sure, a lot.

当然，很多。

A lot.

很多。

There are all these shopping malls, strip mall restaurants with the best Guatemalan this, Honduran that, Tibetan that.

这里有所有这些购物中心、购物中心餐厅，有最好的危地马拉菜、洪都拉斯菜、西藏菜。

In our courting phase, my wife and I just went down the Tyler Cowen Ethnic Food Dining Guide.

在我们的求爱阶段，我和我的妻子刚刚阅读了泰勒·考恩民族美食餐饮指南。

And you invited me once.

你邀请过我一次。

You were the aphrodisiac for my marriage.

你是我婚姻的春药。

Great.

伟大的。

BROOKS: I wish I had not said that in retrospect.

布鲁克斯：现在回想起来，我希望我当时没有这么说。

We had a very nice lunch today at a Korean place on 35th Street.

今天我们在 35 街的一家韩国餐厅吃了一顿非常美味的午餐。

I think it was West 55th.

我认为是西55街。

It won a Michelin Star in 2023, and it’s a tofu restaurant.

它在2023年获得了米其林一星，而且是一家豆腐餐厅。

That would be one of my recommendations.

这将是我的建议之一。

I’m sold.

我被卖了。

The flight is not that bad.

航班并没有那么糟糕。

You just bring a big pile of books, and you’re fine.

你只要带一大堆书就可以了。

You don’t need the smartphone or anything, just the books and your AI.

你不需要智能手机或任何东西，只需要书籍和人工智能。

What question do you wish I had asked you?

你希望我问你什么问题？

What’s it like to be so wonderful?

如此美妙是什么感觉？

No, I don’t know how to answer that question.

不，我不知道如何回答这个问题。

You are the master question asker.

你是提问大师。

Anyway, David, thank you very much.

不管怎样，大卫，非常感谢你。

It’s been a great pleasure.

这是一种极大的乐趣。

Thank you, audience.

谢谢观众。