Dan Wang on What China and America Can Learn from Each Other (Ep. 263)
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today I’m talking in the studio with Dan Wang, the great Dan Wang.
今天我在录音室和王丹，伟大的王丹谈话。
He has a new and bestselling book out called Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.
他出版了一本新的畅销书，名为《极速：中国对未来的探索》。
Welcome, Dan.
欢迎，丹。
Hi, Tyler.
嗨，泰勒。
A very simple question.
一个非常简单的问题。
Doesn’t America just have better infrastructure than China?
美国不就是基础设施比中国更好吗？
Let’s say I live in Columbus, Ohio.
假设我住在俄亥俄州哥伦布市。
What exactly am I lacking in terms of infrastructure?
我在基础设施方面到底缺乏什么？
I have this great semi-suburban life.
我过着美好的半郊区生活。
It’s quite comfortable.
很舒服。
What’s the problem?
有什么问题吗？
America has excellent infrastructure if you own a car.
如果你拥有一辆车，美国就有良好的基础设施。
If you are driving every day on the highways into the parking garages to work, that is quite fine.
如果您每天都在高速公路上开车到停车场去上班，那很好。
I’ve never been to Columbus, Ohio.
我从未去过俄亥俄州哥伦布。
I’m sure its airport is perfectly adequate.
我确信它的机场完全足够。
I live mostly in between Ann Arbor as well as Palo Alto.
我主要住在安娜堡和帕洛阿尔托之间。
These are cities that enjoy access to two excellent airports: DTW as well as SFO.
这些城市可通往两个出色的机场：DTW 和 SFO。
All of that is fine.
这一切都很好。
If we are taking a look at the broader set of suburban living, maybe it is more possible for people to take light rail into the city of Columbus, where they might expect to work.
如果我们着眼于更广泛的郊区生活，也许人们更有可能乘坐轻轨进入他们希望工作的哥伦布市。
Maybe they should have a little bit better high-speed rail access between not necessarily everywhere, but what we call the Acela corridor from Boston down to DC.
也许他们应该有更好的高速铁路连接，不一定是到处都是，但我们称之为从波士顿到华盛顿的阿塞拉走廊。
Maybe we should have better high-speed rail between the Triangle in Texas, as well as a few select locations.
也许我们应该在德克萨斯州的三角区以及一些选定的地点之间建立更好的高铁。
Probably not between San Francisco as well as Los Angeles.
可能不在旧金山和洛杉矶之间。
I think there should also be much better transit options within cities as well, because we are working through these subway systems built mostly 100 years ago now in New York City, which are screechingly loud.
我认为城市内也应该有更好的交通选择，因为我们正在纽约市使用这些大多是 100 年前建造的地铁系统，这些地铁系统声音刺耳。
The noise levels on BART as well as New York City are sometimes exceeding these danger levels experienced by most people.
BART 以及纽约市的噪音水平有时会超过大多数人所经历的危险水平。
I think that there should be just more options, rather than cars, as well as airports.
我认为应该有更多的选择，而不是汽车和机场。
Aren’t those relatively minor problems?
这些不是相对较小的问题吗？
I agree that we should build more rail, but mostly we’re not going to.
我同意我们应该修建更多铁路，但大多数情况下我们不会这样做。
We’ll improve airports, add more flights.
我们将改善机场，增加更多航班。
The New York subway is clearly too loud, but part of the American genius is you don’t have to live in New York City.
纽约地铁显然太吵了，但美国的天才之一是你不必住在纽约市。
Say we did everything you just mentioned.
假设我们做了你刚才提到的一切。
Would GDP be more than 1% higher?
GDP会增加1%以上吗？
I believe that it might be higher, but I think that what is much more important is that quality of life will be substantially higher.
我相信它可能会更高，但我认为更重要的是生活质量会大大提高。
We’re not going to do all of this better transit stuff, but why not?
我们不会做所有这些更好的交通事情，但为什么不呢？
Why don’t we do it?
我们为什么不这样做呢？
Just get everyone a car, or almost everyone.
只要让每个人，或者几乎每个人都有一辆车。
Yes.
是的。
I don’t know if we should get everyone a car.
我不知道我们是否应该给每个人都买辆车。
Tyler, I find it always quite funny that you live in suburban Virginia, which is essentially where we’re speaking from now.
泰勒，我觉得你住在弗吉尼亚州郊区总是很有趣，这基本上就是我们现在谈论的地方。
Really, the most boring part of the country.
确实，这个国家最无聊的地方。
That’s not true, but continue.
这不是真的，但继续。
Suburbs mostly.
主要是郊区。
I would say that’s the most boring category of American life is my view.
我认为这是美国生活中最无聊的一类。
Yet you love visiting these vibrant cities of Asia, these ancient museum-like cities of Europe.
然而，您喜欢参观这些充满活力的亚洲城市，这些古老的博物馆般的欧洲城市。
Things are highly walkable.
东西非常适合步行。
Very few people have cars there.
那里很少有人有车。
Nice twisting roads, as well as excellent rail, subway, high-speed rail.
漂亮的蜿蜒道路，以及优秀的铁路、地铁、高铁。
Why don’t we live a little bit more nicely like those Europeans as well as the Asians?
为什么我们不像欧洲人和亚洲人那样生活得更好一点呢？
I don’t see how we could make American cities into European cities.
我不明白我们如何才能将美国城市变成欧洲城市。
What we have are the very best suburbs.
我们拥有最好的郊区。
Chinese suburbs strike me as really quite mediocre.
在我看来，中国的郊区确实很平庸。
They can have excellent food as pretty much all of China does, but after that, I don’t see anything to recommend them at all.
他们可以像几乎所有中国人一样享受美味的食物，但在那之后，我根本看不到任何可以推荐他们的东西。
If the idea of your country is to have the best suburbs, which is where the people are happiest, European suburbs, they’re pretty ugly.
如果你的国家的想法是拥有最好的郊区，也就是人们最幸福的地方，欧洲郊区，它们是相当丑陋的。
They’re generally okay, but they don’t have the charm of Europe.
总体来说还可以，但是没有欧洲的魅力。
You go to inner cities of Europe, maybe Copenhagen is an exception, but so many of them are somewhat emptying out.
你去欧洲的内城，也许哥本哈根是个例外，但很多城市都有些空了。
People are living outside of the main central old town or business district, which is becoming increasingly touristic.
人们居住在主要的中心老城区或商业区之外，而这些地方的旅游业正变得越来越旅游化。
Suburbs are the future.
郊区是未来。
America just seems like the big winner, and Canada, too.
美国似乎是大赢家，加拿大也是。
Yes.
是的。
This is where I believe it was a couple of months ago, where Peter Thiel accused you on your podcast, Tyler, of being a boomer optimist.
我相信这是几个月前的情况，彼得·泰尔在你的播客上指责你，泰勒，是婴儿潮一代的乐观主义者。
Let me echo Peter’s wisdom here of accusing you of being a boomer optimist.
让我重复彼得的智慧，指责你是婴儿潮一代的乐观主义者。
You grew up in the age of highways.
你是在高速公路时代长大的。
I think among younger people, among all sorts of people now, there is a much better sense that American cities have been deeply broken for a while.
我认为，在年轻人中，在现在各种各样的人中，人们对美国城市已经严重崩溃了一段时间有了更好的认识。
They used to be quite walkable places about 100 years ago, before they demolished it, all in favor of highways.
大约100年前，在他们拆除之前，它们曾经是非常适合步行的地方，所有这些都支持高速公路。
Now, I’m not a big fanatic in terms of walkable cities.
现在，我对步行城市并不是那么狂热。
I’m not a big fanatic in terms of bikeable lanes, but I think there are things that we can do to at least reduce how difficult it is to get around in places like New York City, especially, where going to JFK is an ordeal, and leaving JFK is an even worse idea.
我并不是自行车道的狂热爱好者，但我认为我们可以做一些事情，至少减少在纽约市这样的地方出行的困难，特别是去肯尼迪机场是一种折磨，而离开肯尼迪机场则是一个更糟糕的主意。
Sure, we should fix that.
当然，我们应该解决这个问题。
Yes, let’s fix that.
是的，让我们解决这个问题。
Then let’s fix a couple of other things, too, and then GDP will be 1% higher.
然后我们再解决其他一些问题，然后 GDP 就会提高 1%。
On American vs. Chinese infrastructure buildouts
论美国与中国的基础设施建设
Just having congestion pricing and direct rail to all the airports from New York City would be great.
只要有拥堵费和从纽约市到所有机场的直达铁路就太好了。
I’ll take the 1% GDP.
我选GDP的1%。
If we think about why China right now has so much manufacturing success, you have this notion that it’s a nation of engineers.
如果我们思考为什么中国现在在制造业取得如此巨大的成功，你就会想到它是一个工程师的国家。
The United States is a nation of lawyers.
美国是一个律师的国家。
What if per capita income is simply the main variable?
如果人均收入只是主要变量怎么办？
The US in the 1950s does extraordinarily well with manufacturing.
20世纪50年代的美国在制造业方面做得非常出色。
We’re poorer, wages are lower, service sector is less developed.
我们更穷，工资更低，服务业更不发达。
Why is it engineers versus lawyers as opposed to per capita income?
为什么是工程师与律师而不是人均收入？
I think the first thing I want to say is that we can definitely understand China right now as being partially 1950s America.
我想我想说的第一件事是，我们现在绝对可以将中国理解为部分 20 世纪 50 年代的美国。
What do I associate with 1950s America?
我与 20 世纪 50 年代的美国有什么联系？
A bunch of things, including a giant highway building spree under Eisenhower, and that is what the Chinese have done.
一系列的事情，包括艾森豪威尔领导下的大规模高速公路建设热潮，这就是中国人所做的。
There are these traditionalist attitudes toward work and gender, which the Communist Party is enforcing, minimal immigration attitude of favorability between both of these time zones, between both of these places.
共产党正在强制推行这些对工作和性别的传统主义态度，以及在这两个时区、这两个地方之间对移民的最低限度的有利态度。
I think that one can definitely understand China as an earlier America.
我认为，人们绝对可以将中国理解为早期的美国。
I also understand China as perhaps an even earlier America, the start of the 20th century, in which the US wasn’t doing terrific amounts of groundbreaking science that was mostly left to the Germans and the other Europeans.
我还认为中国可能是一个更早的美国，即20世纪初的美国，当时美国并没有做大量的开创性科学，这些科学大部分都留给了德国人和其他欧洲人。
There was just a lot of hucksterism going on, and there was just a sense of vibrancy and a can-do attitude which has partially dissipated now in China, but has been defining China, I think, for the last few decades.
当时有很多推销行为，有一种充满活力的感觉和一种进取的态度，这种态度现在在中国已经部分消失，但我认为在过去的几十年里一直在定义中国。
I think that my hypothesis is that China will continue to build much, much more because it doesn’t have a lot of these American notions of being super obsessed with financial measures, like profitability, as well as these other ratios.
我认为我的假设是，中国将继续建设更多，更多，因为它没有太多美国式的超级痴迷于财务指标的观念，比如盈利能力以及其他比率。
I think there is something much more common in China, as well as the rest of East Asia, where the business leaders are much more concerned about simply market share than they are about having really high profits.
我认为在中国以及东亚其他地区有一种更常见的现象，那里的商界领袖更关心的是市场份额，而不是真正的高利润。
I think that is an element of China in which they are going to be investing a lot more because they’re not targeting exactly the same things as American business leaders.
我认为这是中国的一个要素，他们将在其中进行更多投资，因为他们的目标与美国商界领袖的目标并不完全相同。
I understand the Communist Party to be possibly the most technology-obsessed large institution in the world.
据我了解，共产党可能是世界上最痴迷技术的大型机构。
I think that every country in the world would declare that it would like to have a lot of high technology.
我认为世界上每个国家都会宣称它希望拥有很多高科技。
We can have Canada saying that, we can have Austria saying that, but I think the Chinese really, really mean it because over the last two centuries, they’ve understood part of their self-described humiliations as not possessing technology, when the European imperialists, as well as the Japanese fascists, made incursions into China because they did have technology.
我们可以让加拿大这么说，我们可以让奥地利这么说，但我认为中国人确实是这么说的，因为在过去的两个世纪里，他们已经将自己所遭受的部分耻辱理解为不拥有技术，而欧洲帝国主义者和日本法西斯则因为拥有技术而入侵中国。
I think they are going to continue investing in all of these different things.
我认为他们将继续投资于所有这些不同的事情。
I think there’s just so much competition among the industrial companies in China, as well as so much bureaucratic incentive among the state-owned enterprises and the civil engineers who are always planning a next big subway station, a next big high-speed rail link, that they will continue to invest in all of these things.
我认为中国的工业企业之间存在如此激烈的竞争，国有企业和土木工程师之间也存在如此多的官僚激励，他们总是在规划下一个大型地铁站、下一个大型高铁线路，因此他们将继续投资所有这些东西。
This is where I think the engineering mindset is a little bit more part of the process.
这就是我认为工程思维在这个过程中更多的部分。
This critique that the United States is too financialized or too concerned with the bottom line, hasn’t recent experience with AI infrastructure and data centers shown we can rise to the occasion?
这种对美国过于金融化或过于关注底线的批评，最近在人工智能基础设施和数据中心方面的经验是否表明我们可以应对这种情况？
It’s not obvious all of that will make money, but we’re going to put up trillions of dollars to do it.
显然所有这些都会赚钱，但我们将投入数万亿美元来做到这一点。
We’re going to do it pretty rapidly.
我们会很快完成这件事。
We’re way ahead of China, certainly ahead of the rest of the world.
我们远远领先于中国，当然也领先于世界其他国家。
The Gulf may end up in the running there.
海湾可能最终会跑到那里。
The US is acting very quickly.
美国的行动非常迅速。
We’re clearing away a lot of obstacles.
我们正在清除很多障碍。
Trump administration wants to make review much quicker.
特朗普政府希望加快审查速度。
Probably, they’ll do at least part of that.
也许，他们至少会做其中的一部分。
We’re just way ahead of China in the area, and that’s the most important thing.
我们在这一领域领先于中国，这是最重要的。
Why think the Chinese are doing it well?
为什么认为中国人做得很好？
They’re obsessed with technology, but because they don’t have the private sector involved enough, they make the wrong picks.
他们痴迷于技术，但由于私营部门的参与不够，他们做出了错误的选择。
First, I agree that the US has been doing amazingly well in terms of data construction buildout in particular.
首先，我同意美国在数据建设方面做得非常好，尤其是在数据建设方面。
I think we can debate the premise of whether AI is going to be the sharp tip of the spear to be almost essentially the final technology, in which we don’t need much more technology after this one.
我认为我们可以讨论人工智能是否会成为最终技术的前提，在这之后我们不需要更多的技术。
No, that’s not what I said.
不，我不是这么说的。
We need plenty more technology.
我们需要更多的技术。
Even then, that would be a different criticism.
即便如此，这也会是一种不同的批评。
The criticism would not be, US won’t take enough chances and build out rapidly.
批评不会是，美国不会抓住足够的机会并迅速发展。
The criticism would be, US picks the wrong things.
批评是，美国选择了错误的事情。
That would make you rethink your criticism of the US.
这会让你重新思考你对美国的批评。
We’re doing it very well, very quickly, it seems to me.
在我看来，我们做得非常好、非常快。
Yes.
是的。
Maybe it’s not the final technology, but it seems to be, as you say, the most important technology that is going to be pretty defining.
也许这不是最终的技术，但正如你所说，它似乎是最重要的技术，将具有相当的定义性。
I agree that it has been actually extremely impressive that the US has built a lot of data centers, a lot of trillions of dollars invested.
我同意，美国建造了大量数据中心，投资了数万亿美元，这实际上令人印象深刻。
If I were a central planner here, I would ask, what do data centers need?
如果我是这里的中央规划者，我会问，数据中心需要什么？
They need a lot of electrical power.
他们需要大量的电力。
The US is not invested enough in electrical power.
美国在电力方面的投资不够。
This year alone, China will build about 300 gigawatts of solar.
仅今年，中国就将建设约300吉瓦的太阳能。
The US is on track to build 30 gigawatts of solar.
美国有望建设 30 吉瓦的太阳能发电站。
Right now, there’s 33 nuclear power stations under construction in China.
目前，中国在建核电站有33座。
There’s zero under construction in the US.
美国在建的建筑数量为零。
Now, you’re going to tell me that we’re going to fix this with smaller nuclear power.
现在，你要告诉我，我们将用更小的核能来解决这个问题。
We’re going to fix this with geothermal.
我们将用地热来解决这个问题。
Maybe we’ll fix this with gas.
也许我们会用天然气来解决这个问题。
With Saudi Arabia.
与沙特阿拉伯。
Maybe with Saudi Arabia.
也许与沙特阿拉伯。
China has terrible allies.
中国有可怕的盟友。
We have pretty good allies.
我们有非常好的盟友。
Yes.
是的。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, are these the best allies?
沙特阿拉伯、卡塔尔，这些是最好的盟友吗？
Perhaps.
也许。
It’s not Qatar.
这不是卡塔尔。
It’s more complicated.
情况更复杂。
Maybe UAE, but Saudi seems likely at this point.
也许是阿联酋，但沙特目前似乎有可能。
They have plenty of energy.
他们有充足的精力。
They don’t really have a NIMBY movement that can stop things.
他们并没有真正可以阻止事情发生的邻避运动。
Part of the American infrastructure is all these allies.
美国基础设施的一部分就是所有这些盟友。
Donald Trump is very intent on upsetting a lot of key allies.
唐纳德·特朗普非常想惹恼许多重要盟友。
Now, maybe they won’t be so upset that they don’t follow American edicts, but at least I would have a little bit of hesitation about the strength of American alliances in the wake of Trump.
现在，也许他们不会因为不遵守美国的法令而感到如此沮丧，但至少在特朗普之后我会对美国联盟的实力产生一点犹豫。
If I were a central planner, I would say, “Are we building enough power?
如果我是中央计划者，我会说：“我们是否建立了足够的权力？
Are we making sure that there’s enough water here?
我们确保这里有足够的水吗？
Are we making sure that we’re managing the potential political backlash among a lot of NIMBY residents, including in Virginia, who are getting the bulk of data centers, who may not necessarily like a lot of the information out there about water use and electrical use?”
我们是否确保能够应对包括弗吉尼亚州在内的许多邻避居民之间潜在的政治抵制，他们拥有大量数据中心，但他们可能不一定喜欢大量有关用水和用电的信息？”
I’m not sure if Silicon Valley is managing public opinion very well.
我不确定硅谷是否很好地管理了公众舆论。
There’s a lot of what people call misinformation out there about how much water these data centers use.
关于这些数据中心的用水量，存在很多人们所说的错误信息。
I think that I would like to invest in a much broader basket of technologies, not just data centers, that there has to be much more of everything else.
我认为我想投资更广泛的技术篮子，而不仅仅是数据中心，还必须投资更多的其他技术。
Why don’t we throw in better subways and light rail?
我们为什么不修建更好的地铁和轻轨呢？
On health care investment
关于医疗保健投资
How about health care and services?
医疗保健和服务怎么样？
US is way, way ahead of China, even adjusting for per capita income.
即使根据人均收入进行调整，美国也远远领先于中国。
Health care is about the worst Chinese sector in terms of quality, corruption, what you have to pay the doctor, how nice it is to interact with the Chinese health care sector.
医疗保健是中国最差的行业，无论是质量、腐败、付给医生的钱还是与中国医疗保健行业的互动有多好。
Why isn’t that the most important thing for people feeling better about their lives?
为什么这不是让人们感觉更好的生活最重要的事情呢？
Again, China’s at the bottom of the pile, even compared, say, to Mexico.
中国再次处于垫底，甚至与墨西哥等国家相比也是如此。
US, I’d say it’s a complicated story.
美国，我想说这是一个复杂的故事。
It costs too much, but it’s some of the best health care in the world for at least the top half of the population.
它花费太多，但对于至少上半数人口来说，它是世界上最好的医疗保健之一。
It’s some of the best health care, especially for the top 1% of the population.
这是最好的医疗保健，特别是对于最富有的 1% 人口来说。
No, but it’s far more than that.
不，但远不止于此。
It is far more than that.
远不止于此。
I agree with that.
我同意这一点。
The health care is what, 20% of the American GDP?
医疗保健占美国GDP的20%是什么？
17 point something.
17点东西。
That’s a lot, right?
很多，对吧？
That’s a lot.
就这么多了。
That feels too high to me.
这对我来说感觉太高了。
I feel like we should be ringing better efficiencies out here.
我觉得我们应该提高效率。
It seems not high enough, though, by another standard.
但从另一个标准来看，它似乎还不够高。
You only get that much happier moment to moment.
你只会时时刻刻变得更加快乐。
If you live longer, or you have better pain killers, or we can fix your broken hip, your life is a lot better.
如果你活得更长，或者你有更好的止痛药，或者我们可以修复你骨折的臀部，你的生活就会好得多。
Why shouldn’t it be eventually 30%, 35%?
为什么最终不应该是30%、35%？
Yes, I don’t know.
是的，我不知道。
Should we be spending 35% of GDP on health care, double our share?
我们是否应该将 GDP 的 35% 用于医疗保健，翻倍？
In 30 years, yes.
30年后，是的。
That sounds like quite a lot.
听起来好像很多。
I am struck by the early pandemic experience in which every scientific health organization measured the US to be one of the best-prepared countries in terms of managing the pandemic.
我对早期大流行的经历感到震惊，每个科学卫生组织都将美国视为在管理大流行方面准备最充分的国家之一。
My colleague at the Hoover Institution, Phil Zelikow, who was part of the COVID Official Study Committee on thinking about how America responded well to the pandemic, what my colleague, Phil Zelikow, would say is that the US underperformed Europe by many, many measures.
我在胡佛研究所的同事菲尔·泽利科 (Phil Zelikow) 是新冠病毒官方研究委员会的成员，他负责思考美国如何应对这一流行病，我的同事菲尔·泽利科 (Phil Zelikow) 会说，美国在很多方面都落后于欧洲。
Compared to many poorer countries, the US underperformed.
与许多较贫穷的国家相比，美国表现不佳。
This is where I am thinking again about, are we too optimistic here about the US health care sector?
这就是我再次思考的地方，我们对美国医疗保健行业是否过于乐观？
That seems wrong to me.
这对我来说似乎是错误的。
US underperformed by different bureaucratic measures, but what really mattered for saving lives and reopening was vaccines.
美国因各种官僚措施而表现不佳，但对于拯救生命和重新开放真正重要的是疫苗。
I agree.
我同意。
On that, US overperformed.
在这一点上，美国表现出色。
China is miserable at the bottom of the barrel.
中国正处于谷底，处境悲惨。
They even had the Pfizer contract and wouldn’t even use those vaccines.
他们甚至拥有辉瑞公司的合同，甚至不会使用那些疫苗。
They used their own inferior vaccines because they didn’t have a society of lawyers who would go crazy suing everyone.
他们使用自己的劣质疫苗，因为他们没有一个会疯狂起诉所有人的律师协会。
US, I think, in pandemic, everyone did terribly, but US got the vaccines, got them quickly, way ahead of schedule, and did certainly much better than China.
我认为，美国在大流行中，每个人都做得很糟糕，但美国获得了疫苗，而且速度很快，远远提前，而且做得肯定比中国好得多。
Here’s where I want to be a little bit more of a financialized Wall Street person to say, shouldn’t we look a little bit at the ratios and what did we get out of so much spending?
在这里，我想成为一个金融化的华尔街人，我们是否应该稍微看看这些比率以及我们从这么多支出中得到了什么？
The US spends so much on so many things and gets so little that we have the Second Avenue subway costing something like eight times per mile than Madrid and Paris.
美国在很多事情上花了很多钱，但得到的却很少，以至于我们的第二大道地铁每英里的成本大约是马德里和巴黎的八倍。
Yes, that’s terrible.
是的，那太可怕了。
It’s a mistake.
这是一个错误。
Again, if you think of health care as more important than subways, you’ll view the US-China comparison quite differently.
同样，如果您认为医疗保健比地铁更重要，那么您对中美比较的看法就会截然不同。
Yes, perhaps.
是的，也许吧。
I am also thinking a little bit about the longer term, where I’m not a specialist on biotech.
我也在考虑更长远的问题，因为我不是生物技术专家。
When I was living in China, I was studying things like semiconductors, cleantech, industrial robotics, and many other things, and I avoided learning too much about biotech.
当我住在中国时，我研究了半导体、清洁技术、工业机器人和许多其他东西，并且避免学习太多有关生物技术的知识。
There are plenty of people now who are extremely optimistic about China’s development in biotech.
现在有很多人对中国生物技术的发展非常乐观。
They are doing a lot more manufacturing of a lot of different parts of biotech processes.
他们正在对生物技术工艺的许多不同部分进行更多的制造。
I think it is quite plausible that China biotech will run other aspects of the China story, in which they start from relatively simple projects like manufacturing and get much better at R&D.
我认为中国生物技术公司很可能会在中国故事的其他方面发挥作用，他们从制造等相对简单的项目开始，并在研发方面做得更好。
You’re absolutely right that China avoided the better vaccines for political reasons.
你说中国出于政治原因避免使用更好的疫苗，这是完全正确的。
What is strange about the US to me is that what we have is bioprosperity for not just the 1%, but let’s call it the top half, but within the top 0.1% and 0.01% of people who have amazing concierge doctors, who have all sorts of amazing health care that is customized for themselves.
对我来说，美国的奇怪之处在于，我们所拥有的生物繁荣不仅仅是1%的人，我们称之为上半部分，而是前0.1%和0.01%的人，他们拥有令人惊叹的特约医生，他们拥有为自己定制的各种令人惊叹的医疗保健。
Then for the bottom half, it doesn’t look very impressive at all.
那么下半部分，看起来一点也不令人印象深刻。
Especially in the early days of the pandemic, where the US underperformed by a lot of different bureaucratic measures, why don’t we have bioprosperity for all rather than just for the 0.01%?
特别是在疫情爆发初期，美国因许多不同的官僚措施而表现不佳，为什么我们不为所有人而不是只为 0.01% 的人实现生物繁荣呢？
We don’t have it for all, but if you look at the major advances like statins, mRNA vaccines, much better heart surgery, much better survival rates after heart attacks and strokes, it’s even much more than the top half that has that.
我们并没有为所有人提供这些，但如果你看看他汀类药物、mRNA 疫苗、更好的心脏手术、心脏病和中风后更好的存活率等重大进步，你会发现，这些进步甚至比上半部分还要多。
Medicare covers prescription drugs, GLP-1 drugs.
Medicare 承保处方药、GLP-1 药物。
One way or another, we’ll end up being covered.
不管怎样，我们最终都会被覆盖。
We’ve had compounding in the meantime.
与此同时，我们进行了复利。
The major advances which have mattered a lot, most people get in the United States, not just the top half.
大多数人在美国获得了非常重要的重大进步，而不仅仅是上半部分。
It’s the top half that gets much better care, and they’re treated more nicely.
上半部分得到更好的照顾，他们受到更好的对待。
In terms of real services, it’s most people.
就真正的服务而言，是大多数人。
In China, it’s most people that don’t get it.
在中国，大多数人不明白这一点。
Yes, I think that’s fair.
是的，我认为这是公平的。
GLP-1 drugs, you’re less needed.
GLP-1 药物，你就不太需要了。
GLP-1 drugs, fewer people who need it.
GLP-1药物，需要它的人越来越少。
Sure, yes.
当然，是的。
On Chinese urban development
论中国城市发展
When will Chinese suburbs be really attractive?
中国郊区什么时候才能真正有吸引力？
What are Chinese suburbs?
中国的郊区是什么？
You use this term, Tyler, and I’m not sure what exactly they mean.
泰勒，你用了这个词，我不确定它们到底是什么意思。
You have a yard and a dog and a car, right?
你有一个院子、一只狗和一辆车，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
You control your school district with the other parents.
您与其他家长一起控制您的学区。
That’s a suburb.
那是郊区。
How about never?
从来没有怎么样？
I’m not expecting that China will have American-style suburbs anytime soon, in part because of the social engineering projects that are pretty extensive in China.
我并不认为中国会很快出现美式郊区，部分原因是中国的社会工程项目相当广泛。
I think there is a sense in which Chinese cities are not especially dense.
我认为从某种意义上说，中国的城市并不是特别密集。
Indian cities are much, much more dense.
印度城市的人口密度要大得多。
I think that Chinese cities, the streets are not necessarily terribly full of people all the time.
我认为中国的城市、街道不一定总是挤满了人。
They just sprawl quite extensively.
它们只是蔓延得相当广泛。
They sprawl in ways that I think the edges of the city still look somewhat like the center of the city, which there’s too many high-rises.
它们的蔓延方式使我认为城市的边缘看起来仍然有点像城市的中心，那里有太多的高楼大厦。
There’s probably fewer parks.
公园可能会少一些。
There’s probably fewer restaurants.
餐馆可能会少一些。
Almost nobody has a yard and a dog in their home.
几乎没有人家里有院子和狗。
That’s in part because the Communist Party has organized most people to live in apartment compounds in which it is much easier to control them.
部分原因是共产党组织了大多数人住在公寓里，这样更容易控制他们。
We saw this really extensively in the pandemic, in which people were unable to leave their Shanghai apartment compounds for anything other than getting their noses and mouths swabbed.
我们在疫情中广泛地看到了这种情况，人们除了擦拭鼻子和嘴巴外，无法离开上海的公寓进行任何其他事情。
I write a little bit about how, if you take the rail outside of major cities like Beijing and Shanghai, you hit farmland really, really quickly.
我写了一些关于如果你乘坐北京和上海等大城市以外的铁路，你会如何非常非常快地到达农田。
That is in part because the Communist Party assesses governors as well as mayors on their degree of food self-sufficiency.
部分原因是共产党对州长和市长的粮食自给自足程度进行评估。
Cities like Shanghai and Beijing have to produce a lot of their own crops, both grains as well as vegetables, as well as fruits, as well as livestock, within a certain radius so that in case there’s ever a major devastating war, they don’t have to rely on strawberries from Mexico or strawberries from Cambodia, or Thailand.
像上海、北京这样的城市，必须在一定的半径内自己生产大量的农作物，包括粮食、蔬菜、水果、牲畜，这样万一发生大规模毁灭性战争，就不必依赖墨西哥、柬埔寨、泰国的草莓。
There’s a lot of farmland allocated outside of major cities.
在主要城市之外分配了很多农田。
I think that will prevent suburban sprawl.
我认为这将防止郊区蔓延。
You can’t control people if they all have a yard as well as a dog.
如果人们都有院子和狗，你就无法控制他们。
I think the Communist Party will not allow it.
我想共产党不会允许的。
On the existing lawyerly influence in East Asia
论东亚现有的律师影响力
Whether the variable of engineers matters, I went and I looked at the history of other East Asian economies, which have done very well in manufacturing, built out generally excellent infrastructure.
无论工程师的变量是否重要，我都去研究了其他东亚经济体的历史，这些经济体在制造业方面做得非常好，建立了普遍优秀的基础设施。
None of these problems with the Second Avenue line in New York.
纽约第二大道线没有这些问题。
Taiwan, like the presidents, at least if we believe GPT-5, three of them were lawyers and none of them were engineers.
台湾，就像总统一样，至少如果我们相信 GPT-5，其中三人是律师，没有一个是工程师。
South Korea, you have actually some economists, a lot of bureaucrats.
韩国，实际上有一些经济学家，还有很多官僚。
Wow.
哇。
Imagine that.
想象一下。
Economists in charge, Tyler.
负责经济学家泰勒。
I wouldn’t think it could work.
我认为这行不通。
A few lawyers, one engineer.
几名律师，一名工程师。
Singapore, Lee Kuan Yew, he’s a lawyer.
新加坡，李光耀，他是一名律师。
He thinks in a very lawyerly manner.
他以非常律师的方式思考。
Singapore has arguably done the best of all those countries.
新加坡可以说是所有这些国家中做得最好的。
Much richer than China, inspired China.
比中国富裕得多，启发了中国。
Why should I think engineers rather than just East Asia, and a bunch of other accompanying facts about these places are what matter?
为什么我应该认为工程师而不仅仅是东亚以及有关这些地方的其他一系列事实才是重要的？
Japan, a lot of lawyers in the top leadership.
日本的高层领导中有很多律师。
What exactly was the leadership of Hong Kong?
香港的领导到底是什么？
A bunch of British civil servants.
一群英国公务员。
Some of whom are probably lawyers or legal-type minds, right?
其中一些人可能是律师或法律型人才，对吧？
Not in general engineers.
一般工程师则不然。
PPE grads.
个人防护用品毕业生。
I think that we can understand the engineering variable mostly because of how much more China has done relative to Japan and South Korea and Taiwan.
我认为我们之所以能够理解工程变量，主要是因为中国相对于日本、韩国和台湾所做的工作要多得多。
It’s much, much poorer.
实在是太穷了。
Per capita manufacturing output is gone much better in these other countries.
这些其他国家的人均制造业产出要好得多。
I understand some of these more as the bureaucratic incentives that are organized by the Communist Party.
我将其中一些更多地理解为共产党组织的官僚激励措施。
I think that if you take the perspective of a civil engineer or a mechanical engineer, a lot of the social processes in China make a lot more sense in which they are, again, have so much desire to control the population that there is a term from Stalin being an engineer of the soul, that Xi Jinping repeated in 2019.
我认为，如果你从土木工程师或机械工程师的角度来看，中国的许多社会进程更有意义，因为他们再次渴望控制人口，以至于斯大林有一个术语“灵魂工程师”，习近平在 2019 年重复了这一术语。
I think there is a social element of engineering.
我认为工程有社会因素。
As I write about the one-child policy, I think that this is pretty distinctive in East Asia that there were birth planning policies certainly in Japan, as well as Korea and Taiwan, but no one went so hard against the countryside as China did.
当我写到一胎政策时，我认为这在东亚是非常独特的，日本、韩国和台湾当然也有计划生育政策，但没有人像中国那样严厉反对农村。
If we take a look at zero-COVID also, that obviously East Asia had a pretty extensive pandemic-control policies, but again, China went quite a lot harder at some of these things.
如果我们也看一下零新冠疫情，显然东亚有相当广泛的流行病控制政策，但同样，中国在其中一些事情上采取了相当多的努力。
You’re making me love the lawyers.
你让我爱上了律师。
No one else can.
其他人都做不到。
I love the lawyers myself, Tyler.
我自己也爱律师，泰勒。
I think that the lawyers are great in all sorts of ways.
我认为律师在各方面都很棒。
As I talked about with bioprosperity for the 0.01%, I think the fundamental problem with the US is that the US is great in a lot of ways, but it is especially great to be rich here.
正如我谈到0.01%的生物繁荣时，我认为美国的根本问题是美国在很多方面都很伟大，但在这里变得富有尤其伟大。
We’re recording on Halloween in 2025.
我们将在 2025 年万圣节录制。
Yesterday, Nvidia became a $5 trillion company.
昨天，英伟达成为一家价值 5 万亿美元的公司。
That is amazing.
这真是太棒了。
That is pretty remarkable.
这是相当了不起的。
Without even selling the best stuff to China.
连最好的东西都不卖给中国。
Without even getting nationalized by the Trump administration.
甚至没有被特朗普政府国有化。
Pretty good job, guys.
干得好，伙计们。
The West Coast in America is the only region in the world that has produced several companies worth over trillions of dollars.
美国西海岸是世界上唯一诞生了多家价值数万亿美元企业的地区。
That is a really remarkable achievement.
这确实是一项了不起的成就。
If you are a member of the rich in America, you can pretty easily transmute your wealth into some degree of political influence, especially as we can see now in the second Trump administration.
如果你是美国富人中的一员，你可以很容易地将你的财富转化为某种程度的政治影响力，特别是正如我们现在在特朗普第二届政府中看到的那样。
In China, it is really dangerous if you become rich.
在中国，如果你变得有钱了，那真的很危险。
In Europe, it’s hard even to get rich.
In Europe, it’s hard even to get rich.
What I’m always pushing American elites is to consider that, yes, if you are a wealthy person in Manhattan, you get to live in these skinny high-rises that overlook Central Park.
我一直敦促美国精英考虑的是，是的，如果你是曼哈顿的富人，你就可以住在这些俯瞰中央公园的瘦削高层建筑中。
If you’re in California, you have a giant home in Atherton, and that feels really good.
如果你在加利福尼亚州，你在阿瑟顿有一个巨大的家，那感觉真的很好。
I want the subways to be less loud.
我希望地铁声音小一点。
I want mass transit to work better.
我希望公共交通能够更好地运作。
Fine, let’s improve the suburbs.
好吧，让我们改善郊区吧。
I think that what I would love is for the US to be 20% more engineering so that we can have all of this mass transit to fix all of the broken manufacturing that the US has.
我认为我希望美国的工程技术能够增加 20%，这样我们就可以拥有所有这些公共交通来修复美国所有破损的制造业。
I would love for China to be 50% more lawyerly because the Communist Party does not respect individual rights.
我希望中国的律师水平能够提高 50%，因为共产党不尊重个人权利。
It strangles the creative impulses of young Chinese who are so funny.
它扼杀了如此有趣的中国年轻人的创作冲动。
They can meme with the best American youths.
他们可以和最优秀的美国年轻人一起模仿。
They have amazing TikToks and Douyins as well.
他们也有很棒的 TikTok 和抖音。
I would like for the Communist Party to just leave people alone for a change.
我希望共产党不要让人们去改变。
Definitely, China should be more lawyerly, but let’s have America be slightly more engineering, too.
当然，中国应该更加注重律师，但我们也应该让美国更加注重工程。
On China’s lack of a liberal tradition
论中国缺乏自由主义传统
Is being insufficiently lawyerly the actual Chinese vice?
缺乏律师资格是中国人真正的恶习吗？
I recently recorded with Diarmaid MacCulloch, the British historian.
我最近与英国历史学家 Diarmaid MacCulloch 进行了录音。
He wrote in one of his books that every single pope of significance between 1159 and 1303 was trained as a lawyer.
他在一本书中写道，1159 年至 1303 年间，每一位重要的教皇都接受过律师培训。
That’s going way back.
那是很久以前的事了。
Popes then were very important.
那时的教皇非常重要。
The West and the notion of law, which comes from Roman law, and you also have British common law, they seem so inextricably intertwined in ways where the actual substance of the law and the importance of the law have co-evolved, literally for millennia, in what is mostly a good way.
西方和来自罗马法的法律概念，还有英国普通法，它们似乎密不可分地交织在一起，法律的实际实质和法律的重要性共同演变了数千年，这基本上是一种好的方式。
China doesn’t have that history.
中国没有这样的历史。
A more lawyerly China, isn’t it just worse and more oppressive, and we get the bad sides of lawyerly society?
一个更加律师化的中国，不是更糟糕、更压抑吗？我们也看到了律师社会的坏处吗？
Not, say, lawyers standing up and saying, “No, you can’t stop the programmers at DeepSeek from leaving the country by seizing their passports.” What would we actually get from a more lawyerly China?
比如说，律师站起来说：“不，你不能通过扣押 DeepSeek 程序员的护照来阻止他们离开这个国家。”一个更加法治化的中国我们实际上能得到什么？
Tyler, you can’t bring up the string of popes without assessing some of them and giving us some of the merits and demerits of some of them.
泰勒，你不能在不评估其中一些教皇并给我们一些他们中的一些优点和缺点的情况下提出一系列教皇。
Were there any really distinguished popes among these lawyers?
这些律师中有真正杰出的教皇吗？
The Catholic Church got us to where we are today, and Christianity did.
天主教会把我们带到了今天的位置，基督教也做到了。
Some of those popes were corrupt and very bad, but overall, that structure of the church with the common language, Latin, a common religion, to some extent unified Europe once again, we see it still today in the EU.
其中一些教皇腐败且非常糟糕，但总体而言，具有共同语言、拉丁语、共同宗教的教会结构在某种程度上再次统一了欧洲，我们今天在欧盟仍然看到它。
It was a pretty miraculous achievement.
这是一个非常神奇的成就。
Yes.
是的。
If I were running Conversations with Tyler, which I am not —
如果我正在与泰勒进行对话，而我不是——
You’re running it today.
你今天正在运行它。
— I would name all of these popes and ask you to distinguish their characteristics.
—— 我会说出所有这些教皇的名字，并请你区分他们的特征。
I agree that it is definitely the case that religion has been an essential part of the West, and it has not been an essential part of China; that China did not have an independent religious authority that can claim transcendent authority to interpret the affairs of the world.
我同意，宗教确实是西方的一个重要组成部分，但它不是中国的一个重要组成部分；中国没有一个独立的宗教权威可以拥有解释世界事务的超然权威。
The emperors did not allow any of these religious orders really to take root and claim higher authority than their own imperial power; that there was no landed bloodline aristocracy in China that was really able to resist the edicts of the emperor.
皇帝不允许这些宗教团体真正扎根并声称拥有比他们自己的皇权更高的权威；中国没有真正能够反抗皇帝圣旨的地主血统贵族。
Part of why I think that China has lacked a liberal tradition, which I understand as having constraints on the court imposed by either the church, other religious authorities, the aristocrats, or merchants, is because the court has captured the entirety of the intelligentsia through the administration of the exams.
我认为中国缺乏自由主义传统，我认为自由主义传统是教会、其他宗教权威、贵族或商人对法院施加的限制，部分原因是法院通过考试的管理占领了整个知识界。
If you wanted to get very far in Chinese society, you had to do very well on these imperial exams, and no one gets far in court by advocating for constraints on imperial power.
如果你想在中国社会走得更远，你就必须在这些科举考试中取得好成绩，而没有人通过主张限制皇权而在宫廷中走得更远。
I am interested in having any sort of liberal checks and balances.
我对任何形式的自由制衡都很感兴趣。
Call me a classical liberal if you must, Tyler, but let’s have some constraints on government power.
如果你必须的话，可以称我为古典自由主义者，泰勒，但让我们对政府权力进行一些限制。
I think that China would definitely be better if there were some ability of people in the countryside, rural folk, who were able to resist these posses of thugs reaching into a woman’s most intimate parts to force them to have an abortion.
我想，如果农村人、农村人有一些能力，能够抵制这些暴徒伸手到妇女最私密的部位强迫她们堕胎的话，中国一定会更好。
I think that it would have been better if the Chinese were able to resist parts of zero-COVID because a spokesperson of the National People’s Congress once wondered whether the Shanghai lockdown was constitutional.
我认为如果中国人能够抵制零新冠的部分内容就更好了，因为全国人大发言人曾经质疑上海封城是否合宪。
It was announced by press release through the Health Commission, not through national emergency by the city government.
这是通过卫生健康委员会发布的新闻稿宣布的，而不是市政府通过国家紧急状态宣布的。
Isn’t that amazing that the health authorities can simply announce by press release the most ambitious lockdown ever attempted by humanity?
卫生当局可以简单地通过新闻稿宣布人类有史以来最雄心勃勃的封锁，这难道不令人惊奇吗？
This is where I think lawyers could have a difference.
我认为这就是律师可以发挥作用的地方。
I think that China will never be as NIMBY as the US.
我认为中国永远不会像美国那样“邻避”。
They’re never going to get their dogs in a yard.
他们永远不会把狗带到院子里。
I totally concede to that.
I totally concede to that.
I think for the most part, it is good that they practice some form of fiscal dynamism, which is unavailable to Americans in the 2020s.
我认为在很大程度上，他们实行某种形式的财政活力是件好事，而这对于 2020 年代的美国人来说是无法实现的。
I think that, again, call me an economist if you must, Tyler, but on the margin, there should be a few more lawyerly instincts in China.
我想，如果你必须的话，再次称我为经济学家，泰勒，但在边缘，中国应该有更多的律师本能。
What do you think?
你怎么认为？
On why China’s won’t democratize
为什么中国不会民主化
I don’t know.
我不知道。
Be a political scientist for a moment.
Be a political scientist for a moment.
As you well know, it was commonly predicted here in the 1990s, for instance, that China would become democratic just as Taiwan had done.
众所周知，例如，在 20 世纪 90 年代，人们普遍预测中国将像台湾那样实现民主。
South Korea was in the process of doing much of the rest of East Asia, as they became richer became democratic.
韩国正在效仿东亚其他国家，因为它们变得更加富裕、更加民主。
China’s continued to get richer.
China’s continued to get richer.
No signs of it becoming more democratic.
没有迹象表明它变得更加民主。
If anything, it’s moved in the opposite direction.
如果有的话，那就是它朝相反的方向移动。
What was wrong with the original model?
原来的模型出了什么问题？
Why isn’t China like South Korea?
Why isn’t China like South Korea?
I would put on any hat you want to put on me, Tyler, but I would not put on the hat of a political scientist.
泰勒，我愿意戴上你想要戴在我身上的任何帽子，但我不会戴上政治科学家的帽子。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Call me a historian, call me a lawyer, call me a classical liberal instead.
称我为历史学家，称我为律师，称我为古典自由主义者。
I wonder the extent to which democratization in East Asia was highly contingent.
我想知道东亚的民主化在多大程度上是高度偶然的。
Japan was the first democracy that was democratized by force through MacArthur’s constitutional changes after it was occupied and after it had two nukes dropped upon its cities.
日本是第一个在被占领后以及在其城市遭受两枚核武器袭击后通过麦克阿瑟的宪法改革以武力实现民主化的民主国家。
How did Taiwan democratize?
How did Taiwan democratize?
Chiang Kai-shek first had to pass away, and then his son, Chiang Ching-kuo, took over.
蒋介石首先必须去世，然后他的儿子蒋经国接任。
That was also a fairly gradual process.
That was also a fairly gradual process.
Maybe that was probably the best-case scenario of Taiwan democratizing.
也许这可能是台湾民主化的最好情况。
How did South Korea democratize?
How did South Korea democratize?
Park Chung-hee was shot by his own CIA chief, and then the person who took power after him, Chun Doo-hwan, was much, much more repressive than Park Chung-hee, and he shot students in the streets before he was deposed.
朴正熙被自己的中央情报局局长枪杀，然后在他之后掌权的人全斗焕比朴正熙镇压得多，他在被废黜之前在街上枪杀了学生。
I’m not seeing a common story in the East Asian democratization story.
我在东亚民主化故事中没有看到一个常见的故事。
Just that there’s more income, people want it.
Just that there’s more income, people want it.
There’s even weirder cases.
还有更奇怪的情况。
Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, much weirder, more imperfect democracies, but they’re democracies of some sort, and it’s even happened in those places.
马来西亚、泰国、印度尼西亚，这些国家更奇怪、更不完美，但它们也是某种民主国家，甚至在那些地方也发生过这种情况。
Indonesia is a pretty big country.
Indonesia is a pretty big country.
It’s not that well-organized, spread out over so many islands.
它的组织不是很好，分布在很多岛屿上。
There’s plenty of other places you can look at.
还有很多其他地方您可以查看。
India has stayed a democracy.
India has stayed a democracy.
China does seem like a big outlier.
China does seem like a big outlier.
It seems weird to think all of those instances are just accidents.
认为所有这些情况都只是意外似乎很奇怪。
I would first point out that China is ruled by the Communist Party that has studied extensively the Soviet Union.
我首先要指出，中国是由广泛学习苏联的共产党统治的。
In my view, China has studied three institutions in depth.
我认为，中国对三个制度进行了深入的研究。
The first institution is the Catholic Church.
The first institution is the Catholic Church.
How do you organize doctrine, claim to be thousands of years old, and have a figurehead that everyone is expected to worship?
你如何组织教义，声称有几千年的历史，并拥有一个每个人都应该崇拜的傀儡？
China is not simply the Communist Party.
China is not simply the Communist Party.
The Communist Party is not simply the Catholic Church with a major figurehead.
共产党不仅仅是拥有重要领袖的天主教会。
It is inflected with something like the Sicilian mafia, which enforces its omerta throughout the entire organization.
它与西西里黑手党类似，在整个组织中强制推行其 omerta。
The second organization that China has pretty extensively studied is Japan and how to avoid the economic malaise that plagued it after the 1980s.
中国广泛研究的第二个组织是日本，以及如何避免 20 世纪 80 年代后困扰其的经济不景气。
It doesn’t mean that it can avoid these problems, but it has extensively studied the experience of Japan.
这并不意味着它可以避免这些问题，但它广泛学习了日本的经验。
Third and most importantly, China has studied the example of the Soviet Union.
第三，也是最重要的一点，中国学习了苏联的例子。
They think that Deng Xiaoping famously called Gorbachev an idiot.
他们认为邓小平曾骂戈尔巴乔夫是白痴。
Gorbachev, until he realized what he was doing, it became too late for him to really rescue the Communist Party.
戈尔巴乔夫，直到他意识到自己在做什么时，他想要真正拯救共产党已经太晚了。
They really want to avoid the fate of Gorbachev.
他们确实想避免戈尔巴乔夫的命运。
Now, if Gorbachev didn’t exist, maybe they would have Gorbachev’d themselves.
现在，如果戈尔巴乔夫不存在，也许他们自己就会被戈尔巴乔夫消灭。
They have this example of knowing what not to do.
他们有一个知道不该做什么的例子。
Every day in Beijing, I feel like the Politburo and the rest of the Central Committee, and Xi Jinping in particular, feel like it is a life-and-death struggle to avoid the fate of political dissolution.
在北京的每一天，我都感觉政治局和中央委员会的其他成员，特别是习近平，都在为避免政治解体的命运而进行殊死的斗争。
They are really, really thinking in terms of apocalypse, much as Silicon Valley does today, to avoid being dissolved.
他们真的非常非常地从世界末日的角度思考，就像今天的硅谷一样，以避免被解散。
I think having that very intense Leninist focus on not being dissolved, like the historical predecessor, is going to be a pretty important fact of not liberalizing and not democratizing.
我认为列宁主义非常强烈地关注不被解散，就像历史上的前辈一样，这将是不自由化和不民主化的一个非常重要的事实。
On China’s economic disfunction
On China’s economic disfunction
Now, there’s a chart, I think from Andrew Batson, and you know this guy, measuring China’s capital productivity.
现在，我想安德鲁·巴特森（Andrew Batson）有一张图表，你认识这个人，它衡量了中国的资本生产率。
It shows that capital productivity to be in steady decline.
这表明资本生产率正在稳步下降。
I know these things are hard to measure, but do you agree with that?
我知道这些事情很难衡量，但你同意吗？
If so, why is that happening, if China is so successful with all these manufacturing ventures?
如果是这样，如果中国在所有这些制造企业上如此成功，为什么会发生这种情况？
Yes, I think it is a very well-established fact that TFP growth in China has been falling.
是的，我认为中国的全要素生产率增长一直在下降，这是一个非常确定的事实。
We don’t have to get into how valid TFP measures are, but I agree with it, and I think that one can see it in society.
我们不必讨论 TFP 措施的有效性，但我同意这一点，并且我认为人们可以在社会中看到它。
Now, my view of China is that 50% of China’s economy is pretty dysfunctional, but 5% is going splendidly well.
现在，我对中国的看法是，中国经济的 50% 相当失调，但 5% 的经济发展得非常好。
When I became a technology analyst working for Andrew Batson, as well as Arthur Kroeber at Gavekal Dragonomics, my remit was to take a look at the top 5% of China’s economy, and that is the area that I’ve always spent most of my time thinking about that goes from strength to strength.
当我成为安德鲁·巴特森 (Andrew Batson) 以及佳富龙洲 (Gavekal Dragonomics) 亚瑟·科罗伯 (Arthur Kroeber) 的技术分析师时，我的职责是研究中国经济的前 5%，而这也是我一直花大部分时间思考不断壮大的领域。
Now, I would say that 50% of America’s economy is also pretty dysfunctional.
现在，我想说美国 50% 的经济也相当失调。
50% of every economy is pretty dysfunctional.
每个经济体都有 50% 的功能失调。
In America, I would just call that health care, as well as the subways.
在美国，我会称之为医疗保健，以及地铁。
I’m sorry to tease you, Tyler, but I know you can take it.
泰勒，我很抱歉取笑你，但我知道你能接受。
The subways are not going to add up to 50% of the economy, right?
地铁不会占经济的 50%，对吗？
They’re not 1% of the economy.
他们不占经济的1%。
Maybe they should.
也许他们应该。
Move to Knoxville, move to Lexington, Kentucky.
搬到诺克斯维尔，搬到肯塔基州列克星敦。
You don’t have to worry about the subways.
You don’t have to worry about the subways.
That’s where American growth is coming from, right?
这就是美国经济增长的来源，对吗？
A lot of it.
很多。
Yes.
是的。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I feel like what you’re telling us all, the running thread of this conversation, Tyler, is that I’m saying that people need to get around, and you’re saying, let them eat cars.
我觉得你告诉我们所有人的，这次谈话的主线，泰勒，是我说人们需要四处走动，而你说，让他们吃掉汽车。
They get around fine in Lexington, Kentucky.
他们在肯塔基州列克星敦过得很好。
I was there recently.
我最近在那儿。
They have horses, too.
他们也有马。
How’s the traffic over there?
那边交通怎么样？
It’s fine.
没关系。
Not a problem.
不是问题。
Same with Knoxville.
诺克斯维尔也一样。
I didn’t really see any traffic.
我确实没有看到任何流量。
I wasn’t there very long, but everyone there complains about it, and it’s like, “This isn’t traffic!” once you’re there.
我在那里呆的时间不长，但那里的每个人都在抱怨，就像，“这不是交通！”一旦你到了那里。
If you say, let them eat horses, I would say the Japanese eat horses, and I think that would be a little bit better.
如果你说让他们吃马，我会说日本人吃马，我觉得这样会好一点。
I think that China’s economy is mostly pretty dysfunctional.
我认为中国的经济大多功能失调。
What we are seeing is that the state-owned enterprises’ morass is overtaking the highly functional private companies.
我们看到的是，国有企业的困境正在超越功能强大的私营企业。
Let me observe an East Coast flavor of thinking about China as well as a West Coast flavor of thinking about China.
让我观察一下东海岸对中国的思考方式以及西海岸对中国的思考方式。
I split my time, essentially, between the coasts.
我基本上把时间分配在海岸之间。
Yesterday, I presented to the editorial board of a major newspaper here on the East Coast.
昨天，我向东海岸一家主要报纸的编辑委员会发表了演讲。
I think that a lot of the flavors of the questions were of the sort that, why doesn’t China end up quite like Japan or the Soviet Union?
我认为很多问题都是这样的，为什么中国最终没有像日本或苏联那样？
Aren’t there all of these reasons for China to fail, whether because of financial crises or the imploding property sector or the long-term demographics?
Aren’t there all of these reasons for China to fail, whether because of financial crises or the imploding property sector or the long-term demographics?
You can go on and on about all of these problems with China.
你可以继续谈论所有这些与中国有关的问题。
I think that is very valid to think about.
我认为这是非常值得思考的。
I think if I were having a China discussion on the West Coast, there would be, among the venture capitalist class, much more of a focus on thinking, how might China succeed?
我想，如果我在西海岸进行中国讨论，风险投资家阶层中将会更多地关注这样的问题：中国如何才能成功？
Because they, like me, are taking a look at the superstars and looking at the highly functional parts of the American economy as well as the Chinese economy.
因为他们和我一样，正在关注超级巨星，关注美国经济和中国经济中功能强大的部分。
What I am always asking is, what if they succeed on being the global center for automotives?
我一直在问的是，如果他们成功成为全球汽车中心怎么办？
Which is likely, right?
这很可能，对吧？
Which is likely.
这很有可能。
They’re on track to do that.
他们正在努力做到这一点。
Right now, they have about a third of global manufacturing capacity.
目前，他们拥有全球约三分之一的制造能力。
They may continue gaining share, in part because they’re deindustrializing everyone else, deindustrializing Germany in particular, as well as Japan and South Korea.
它们可能会继续获得份额，部分原因是它们正在使其他所有人去工业化，特别是德国，以及日本和韩国。
The US has mostly already deindustrialized itself, so it’s not in the firing line.
美国基本上已经实现了去工业化，因此它并不处于前线。
At some point, there will be a second China shock coming for America’s manufacturing industries.
在某个时候，美国制造业将面临第二次中国冲击。
They’re going to make all the drones.
他们将制造所有的无人机。
They’re going to make much of the electronics.
他们将制造大量电子产品。
They’re going to make much of the munitions.
他们将制造大量弹药。
In that scenario, what would it mean for most of the products that we physically use and touch to be mostly Chinese?
在这种情况下，我们实际使用和接触的大多数产品大多是中国的，这意味着什么？
Even if that’s not true for the United States, that could be substantially true for Latin America, Africa, and even wealthier places like Japan as well as Europe.
即使美国的情况并非如此，但对于拉丁美洲、非洲，甚至日本和欧洲等较富裕的地区来说，情况可能基本如此。
Now, they seem to be on track to have that scenario.
现在，他们似乎有望实现这种情况。
I don’t find it too meaningful for the West to take a look at declining capital productivity and declining TFP growth writ large when it is the successful industries that really matter.
我认为，当真正重要的是成功的行业时，西方看待资本生产率下降和全要素生产率增长下降的现象并没有多大意义。
On China’s expansionism
论中国的扩张主义
How worried should we be about that scenario?
我们应该对这种情况有多担心？
I understand that a China that powerful arguably can take Taiwan relatively easily.
我知道，一个如此强大的中国可以相对轻松地占领台湾。
That might happen anyway.
无论如何，这可能会发生。
Beyond that, I don’t view China as an extremely expansionist power.
除此之外，我并不认为中国是一个极端扩张主义的国家。
They want the world to pay homage to them.
他们希望世界向他们致敬。
Some of that already has started happening.
其中一些已经开始发生。
How bad a scenario is that?
这是多么糟糕的场景？
I think this is something that specialists can debate, the extent to which China is expansionist.
我认为专家们可以争论中国扩张主义的程度。
Now, I think I agree mostly with you that China is not extremely expansionist.
现在，我想我基本上同意你的观点，即中国并不是极端扩张主义的。
No PLA troops would ever take the state of Oregon.
没有任何解放军军队能够占领俄勒冈州。
Why would they take Oregon?
他们为什么要占领俄勒冈州？
What would they do with it?
他们会用它做什么？
We have nuclear weapons, among many other things.
我们拥有核武器以及其他许多东西。
I don’t think that American troops will ever occupy Shandong province.
我不认为美国军队会占领山东省。
What would they do with that?
他们会用它做什么？
Then there’s a more limited case of, okay, if China is fully dominant in East Asia and it can regularly —
那么还有一个更有限的情况，好吧，如果中国在东亚完全占主导地位，并且它可以经常 ——
That’s a tricky word, “fully dominant.” Japan is going to be Japan.
这是一个棘手的词，“完全占主导地位”。日本将是日本。
They’re going to resist Chinese influence in a number of ways.
他们将通过多种方式抵制中国的影响。
They might buy a lot of Chinese products, but Japan will be fine.
他们可能会购买很多中国产品，但日本会没问题。
They’ll militarize more if they have to.
如果有必要，他们会更加军事化。
China won’t be fully dominant in Japan.
中国不会在日本完全占据主导地位。
They never have been.
他们从来没有。
How about Malaysia?
马来西亚怎么样？
If the leaders of Malaysia and Vietnam regularly have to go to Beijing to kowtow for the emperor’s pleasure, how much of a threat do you think that is to American imperial power?
If the leaders of Malaysia and Vietnam regularly have to go to Beijing to kowtow for the emperor’s pleasure, how much of a threat do you think that is to American imperial power?
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I’m asking you.
我问你。
Malaysia, I can see.
马来西亚，我看得见。
I think Vietnam has been prickly forever.
我认为越南永远是棘手的。
The US didn’t beat them.
美国没有打败他们。
China didn’t beat them in the late ’70s.
中国在七十年代末没有击败他们。
They will be a funny kind of holdout.
他们将是一种有趣的顽固分子。
They may win some manufacturing share at the expense of China over time.
随着时间的推移，他们可能会以牺牲中国为代价来赢得一些制造业份额。
I don’t think they’ll be dominated.
我不认为他们会被统治。
Singapore.
新加坡。
They will have to kowtow.
他们将不得不磕头。
Is it a major threat to American power if Singapore has to kowtow?
如果新加坡必须磕头，这是否对美国实力构成重大威胁？
It’s very bad, and it’s certainly bad for Singapore.
这非常糟糕，对新加坡来说当然也很糟糕。
At the end of the day, if China is much more influential in Asia, and the US takes greater care to cultivate the new world, this hemisphere, I’m not happy about that.
At the end of the day, if China is much more influential in Asia, and the US takes greater care to cultivate the new world, this hemisphere, I’m not happy about that.
It’s hardly the worst scenario for the future of our world, right?
对于我们世界的未来来说，这并不是最糟糕的情况，对吧？
I think I’m mostly with you.
我想我大部分时间都和你在一起。
Now, my rabbi at the Hoover History Lab is Stephen Kotkin.
现在，我在胡佛历史实验室的拉比是斯蒂芬·科特金。
Kotkin would say that the appetite grows for the eating.
科特金会说，吃东西的胃口会增加。
What if they first seize Taiwan, and then Singapore has to kowtow, and so goes Malaysia, and then they decide to seize Japan because they can?
如果他们首先占领台湾，然后新加坡必须屈服，马来西亚也必须屈服，然后他们决定占领日本，因为他们可以？
No, they can’t seize Japan.
不，他们无法占领日本。
Japan will just build nukes.
日本只会制造核武器。
The US will protect Japan, even if they don’t protect Taiwan.
美国将保护日本，即使他们不保护台湾。
I think that is likely.
我认为这是有可能的。
I think that the case for Chinese expansionism is more limited.
我认为中国扩张主义的理由更为有限。
I don’t think that they will be extremely expansionist.
我不认为他们会极端扩张。
Then the question for the experts is, to what extent should the US defend a country like Singapore and Malaysia from Chinese influence rather than American influence?
Then the question for the experts is, to what extent should the US defend a country like Singapore and Malaysia from Chinese influence rather than American influence?
On Chinese pragmatism and bureaucratic incentives
论中国的实用主义和官僚激励
If I think about the spectacular record of Chinese economic growth, and this is not only in the nation of China, but around the world, my unconfirmed hypothesis is that a lot of it is due to the fact that Chinese ex ante, before they were rich, already had high IQs, whether that’s this tradition of education, the exam system, earlier urbanization in mainland China, whatever.
If I think about the spectacular record of Chinese economic growth, and this is not only in the nation of China, but around the world, my unconfirmed hypothesis is that a lot of it is due to the fact that Chinese ex ante, before they were rich, already had high IQs, whether that’s this tradition of education, the exam system, earlier urbanization in mainland China, whatever.
The Chinese started off quite smart relative to their per capita income.
相对于人均收入而言，中国人起步相当聪明。
When other better developments came, they could just keep on growing without obstacles in a way that, say, India has not managed to do.
当其他更好的发展出现时，它们可以毫无障碍地继续增长，而印度却未能做到这一点。
Agree or disagree?
同意还是不同意？
Maybe.
或许。
I will say that Chinese, to me, seem extremely responsive to incentives.
我想说的是，在我看来，中国人似乎对激励措施非常敏感。
You put an incentive in front of them, and they will maximize everything out of it.
你把激励摆在他们面前，他们就会最大限度地利用它。
Chinese, to me, are a super pragmatic people.
对我来说，中国人是一个非常务实的民族。
It’s funny, I was working with the health care system.
有趣的是，我正在与医疗保健系统合作。
My wife and I were navigating some of the health care system at the University of Michigan.
我和我的妻子正在了解密歇根大学的一些医疗保健系统。
By the time that we spoke to a nurse with a, obviously, Chinese accent, we could tell that she was Chinese.
当我们与一位带有明显中国口音的护士交谈时，我们可以看出她是中国人。
Then it was clear that she was the truth-teller among all of the nurses in the system that was able to help us navigate, “Oh, this process is good.
Then it was clear that she was the truth-teller among all of the nurses in the system that was able to help us navigate, “Oh, this process is good.
That other process is not so good.
其他过程不太好。
Maybe you should consider doing things with this doctor.” I feel like what I enjoy about a lot of Chinese is that they’re totally pragmatic that if you throw up an obstacle in their way, they will simply, rather than be aggrieved about the obstacle, they will think about, “Okay, how do I navigate around this obstacle?”
也许你应该考虑和这位医生一起做事。” I feel like what I enjoy about a lot of Chinese is that they’re totally pragmatic that if you throw up an obstacle in their way, they will simply, rather than be aggrieved about the obstacle, they will think about, “Okay, how do I navigate around this obstacle?”
Some of the Chinese I know have not even been all that upset with President Trump’s jerking around at the visa statuses around H1-B.
我认识的一些中国人甚至对特朗普总统在 H1-B 签证问题上的随意调整并没有感到那么不安。
They simply understand, “Oh, the rules have changed, and now I need to pivot.” This is also something that I think speaks to some of these Chinese attitudes where Xi Jinping and the rest of the Communist Party is able to generate a lot of economic growth simply because it has been pretty easy to be a Chinese official in the last 20 years, mostly before Xi’s era, in which the bureaucratic incentives were simply to maximize GDP growth and minimize the mass incidents, which is the Chinese euphemism for protests.
他们只是明白，“哦，规则已经改变，现在我需要改变方向。”我认为这也反映了中国人的一些态度，习近平和其他共产党人之所以能够带来大量经济增长，仅仅是因为在过去20年里，尤其是在习近平时代之前，当一名中国官员相当容易，官僚激励只是为了最大化GDP增长和最小化群体性事件，这是中国人对抗议的委婉说法。
You got a lot of GDP growth because that was what the bureaucratic incentives were.
GDP 大幅增长是因为官僚激励。
Even right now, there are plenty of people who realize that Xi is blocking their path to wealth, but they are able to repivot and are simply able to be pragmatic about doing all sorts of things.
即使现在，仍有很多人意识到习近平正在阻碍他们的财富之路，但他们能够重新调整方向，并且能够务实地做各种事情。
I would say that education is certainly part of it.
我想说，教育当然是其中的一部分。
China has valued education for a very long time.
中国历来重视教育。
I would simply add the variable that they are very incentive-sensitive and are able to pivot and do things that make sense to themselves.
我只想添加一个变量，即他们对激励非常敏感，能够调整方向并做对自己有意义的事情。
Doesn’t it strike you how many top Chinese intellects in science or just graduate students, they might come from the countryside or they come from quite poor family backgrounds?
你有没有想过，中国有多少顶尖的科学知识分子或者刚刚毕业的研究生，他们可能来自农村或者出身于相当贫困的家庭？
If I look at Latin American top students, top economists, they tend to come from elite families.
如果我观察拉丁美洲的顶尖学生、顶尖经济学家，他们往往来自精英家庭。
If I look at Turkish top grad students, top economists, they tend to come from elite families.
如果我观察土耳其的顶尖研究生、顶尖经济学家，他们往往来自精英家庭。
In China, this seems different.
在中国，这似乎有所不同。
Do you agree?
你同意？
I agree.
我同意。
Your own family was not wealthy, right?
你自己的家庭也不富裕吧？
My family was not wealthy, but no family from that time was wealthy.
我的家庭并不富裕，但从那时起，没有一个家庭是富裕的。
I think that there was something called communism in China.
我认为中国有一种叫做共产主义的东西。
There was also the anti-landlord struggles initiated by Mao.
还有毛泽东发起的反地主斗争。
There was the Great Leap Forward, which plunged tens of millions into famine.
大跃进使数千万人陷入饥荒。
There was the Cultural Revolution, which destroyed a lot of the intellectual class.
文化大革命摧毁了很多知识分子阶层。
My family is mostly made up of people of rural origins.
我的家庭主要由农村出身的人组成。
My grandmother was the daughter of, according to family lore, the fourth-ranked private secretary to Chiang Kai-shek in Nanjing.
据家族传说，我的祖母是南京蒋介石第四号私人秘书的女儿。
There is a little bit of elite background in my own family through my grandmother.
我自己的家族，通过我的祖母，也有一点精英背景。
I wonder how much of this is simply explained by communism and the fact that everybody in China was poor.
我想知道这在多大程度上可以简单地用共产主义和中国每个人都很穷的事实来解释。
When my parents and I moved to Canada in the year 2000, we had hundreds of dollars in our pockets.
2000年，当我和父母搬到加拿大时，我们的口袋里有数百美元。
We had no wealth, but nobody had much wealth then.
我们没有财富，但那时没有人有太多财富。
We left right before the economic boom of China, one of several economic mistakes of my parents, who were not sufficiently entrepreneurial.
我们在中国经济繁荣之前离开了，这是我父母在经济上犯下的几个错误之一，他们没有足够的创业精神。
I think that there’s plenty of smart Chinese.
我认为中国人有很多聪明人。
Very few people were elite of my age.
很少有人是我这个年龄的精英。
On Chinese cities and regional culture
论中国城市和地域文化
Beijing or Shanghai?
北京还是上海？
Shanghai.
上海。
Why?
为什么？
It was partially built by the French, full of leafy boulevards.
它的一部分是由法国人建造的，到处都是绿树成荫的林荫大道。
It has all of these pleasures of life.
它拥有所有这些生活乐趣。
In Shanghai, we refer to ourselves as Paris of the East.
在上海，我们称自己为东方巴黎。
We referred to Beijing as Western Pyongyang because it is this Stalinist no-fun zone fully built out in concrete.
我们将北京称为西平壤，因为它是一个完全用混凝土建造的斯大林主义无趣区。
Sometimes when I go to Paris, I tease the Parisians for living in the Shanghai of the West.
有时我去巴黎，我会嘲笑巴黎人生活在西方的上海。
I think that it is just a really pleasant space.
我认为这是一个非常令人愉快的空间。
Shanghai is more intellectual than many folks give it credit for.
上海比许多人想象的更加知识分子。
Shanghai was where the Communist Party was first founded in 1921.
1921年，上海是共产党的诞生地。
Shanghai was the driving intellectual energy behind the Gang of Four in the Cultural Revolution.
上海是文化大革命中“四人帮”背后的驱动性智力力量。
That was the great readout of Jiang Qing as well as the other Gang of Four.
这是江青和其他四人帮的精彩宣读。
There’s a lot of literary traditions in Shanghai.
上海有很多文学传统。
They have a lot of the excellent senses of life because Hangzhou, as well as Suzhou, are very nearby, where the poets dwelt and drank and ate marvelous food.
他们有很多美好的生活感觉，因为杭州和苏州都在附近，诗人曾居住在那里，喝酒吃过美味的食物。
It has the much better weather than Beijing, which is every so often hit by these sandstorms which drift over from the Gobi Desert.
它的天气比北京好得多，北京经常受到戈壁滩飘过来的沙尘暴的袭击。
I get really uncomfortable in Beijing because it is just this unmasked celebration of state power.
我在北京感到非常不舒服，因为这只是赤裸裸地庆祝国家权力。
I get somewhat uncomfortable walking around in Washington, DC, which is the imperial city.
在华盛顿特区这个皇城里走来走去，我感到有些不舒服。
I am much more attracted to the pleasure center of China.
我对中国的娱乐中心更感兴趣。
Chengdu or Chongqing?
成都还是重庆？
Chongqing is the more cinematic city.
重庆是一座更加电影化的城市。
I love how you can enter a building, go up 11 floors, and exit again street level because it is built through these gorges as well as mountainsides.
我喜欢你如何进入一座建筑，爬上 11 层，然后再次从街道高度退出，因为它是通过这些峡谷和山坡建造的。
It feels like a city carved into cliffs.
感觉就像一座雕刻在悬崖上的城市。
The front cover of my book is featuring Chongqing.
我的书的封面是关于重庆的。
It is this Raffles Tower built by a Singaporean company under construction.
就是这座正在建设中的新加坡公司建造的莱佛士大厦。
It is just this really gorgeous zone.
这就是这个非常美丽的区域。
Chengdu, I find a little bit sedate.
成都，我觉得有点安静。
It is certainly more pleasant in all sorts of ways.
从各方面来看，这确实更令人愉快。
The food is more refined than the Chongqing food.
食物比重庆菜精致。
I think that it has slightly higher levels of food.
我认为它的食物含量略高。
You don’t get the tackling frenetic energy that is more typical of Chongqing.
你不会感受到重庆特有的应对狂热的能量。
Chengdu feels, in a lot of ways to me, to be a little bit too laid back.
对我来说，成都在很多方面都感觉有点太悠闲了。
Speaking as someone who has family origins in Yunnan, I would say that both Chengdu and Chongqing are splendid.
作为一个云南出身的人来说，成都和重庆都很棒。
I would definitely defend the southwest against all comers.
我一定会保卫西南地区免受所有来者的侵害。
I’m from the southwest myself.
我自己也是西南人。
We’re the most mountainous aspect region of China.
我们是中国山地最多的地区。
We have the best food between Sichuan, namely Chengdu, Chongqing, as well as Yunnan, as well as Guizhou.
我们有四川之间最好的食物，就是成都、重庆，还有云南、贵州。
We have a splendid natural beauty.
我们拥有壮丽的自然美景。
It is the funniest region of China.
这是中国最有趣的地区。
Everyone there looks like me.
那里的每个人看起来都像我。
I think everybody should go make a visit.
我想每个人都应该去参观一下。
Why is it you have the best mushrooms, and the best ham there?
为什么你们有最好的蘑菇和最好的火腿？
That exists mostly in Yunnan.
这种情况主要存在于云南。
Yunnan is a province full of mountains.
云南是一个多山的省份。
At its highest point of elevation, northern Yunnan is essentially the Himalayas.
云南北部的最高点基本上是喜马拉雅山。
Yunnan has one of the most sacred mountains in Tibetan Buddhism, Khawa Karpo, or Meili Xueshan in Mandarin.
云南拥有藏传佛教最神圣的山脉之一——卡瓦噶波山，或者普通话的梅里雪山。
At south, it is essentially a giant rainforest, feeling much like Thailand.
在南部，它本质上是一片巨大的雨林，感觉很像泰国。
When you have these extraordinary climatic zones, you have a lot of salt deposits in central Yunnan, which is where Deng Xiaoping’s wife came from.
当你拥有这些特殊的气候带时，云南中部就会有大量的盐矿，那里是邓小平妻子的故乡。
Deng Xiaoping’s wife was the daughter of a major ham merchant.
邓小平的妻子是一位火腿大商的女儿。
They salted a lot of excellent hams there.
他们在那里腌制了很多美味的火腿。
You can find all sorts of mushrooms if you go foraging through these excellent mountains, which are mostly in central Yunnan.
到这些优质山区采摘，可以找到各种各样的蘑菇，这些山区大多位于云南中部。
There’s excellent matsutake.
这里有很棒的松茸。
There is really excellent all sorts of morels.
确实有各种各样的羊肚菌。
I have gone mushroom foraging extensively with my family when I’m visiting my aunts and uncles.
当我拜访我的阿姨和叔叔时，我和家人一起去广泛采摘蘑菇。
I have been poisoned only three times.
我只中毒过3次。
The first time was when I had a spate of vomiting.
第一次是我剧烈呕吐。
The second time was a fever.
第二次是发烧。
The third time was pretty bad.
第三次就很糟糕了。
I hallucinated for about three days after taking some bad mushrooms.
吃了一些坏蘑菇后，我产生了大约三天的幻觉。
It can be dangerous in Yunnan, because people really love mushrooms there.
在云南可能很危险，因为那里的人们非常喜欢蘑菇。
Every year, something like 20 people die from taking the mushrooms, mostly because the mushrooms are very smart.
每年大约有 20 人因食用蘑菇而死亡，主要是因为蘑菇非常聪明。
Sometimes the poisonous ones look just like the normal ones.
有时有毒的看起来就像正常的一样。
They’re quite smart and adaptive.
他们非常聪明且适应性强。
Tyler, what is your ranking?
泰勒，你的排名是多少？
Beijing or Shanghai, Chengdu or Chongqing?
北京还是上海，成都还是重庆？
I prefer Beijing.
我更喜欢北京。
It has a better visual art scene.
它有更好的视觉艺术场景。
The state power there, I don’t like, but to me, it’s more interesting than the commercial nature of Shanghai, which I feel I can find in many places.
那里的国家权力，我不喜欢，但对我来说，它比上海的商业性质更有趣，我觉得我可以在很多地方找到它。
I like the fact that in Beijing, I can get food from many different parts of China.
我喜欢这样一个事实：在北京，我可以买到来自中国许多不同地方的食物。
In Shanghai, I’m never quite satisfied with the spicier foods of China.
在上海，我对中国的辛辣食物一直不太满意。
I get that it has better Cantonese food and southern flavors than what you would get in Beijing.
我知道它有比北京更好的粤菜和南方风味。
Beijing does seem to me more bookish, better bookstores, and nonetheless more intellectual, just as an outside impression.
在我看来，北京确实更书卷气，书店更好，但也更知识分子，就像外界的印象一样。
The big ring roads, they’re terrible for walking, but once you’re in a neighborhood, it’s quite good for walking.
大环路，步行起来很糟糕，但是一旦你到了附近，步行就很方便了。
There’s so many excellent restaurants.
有很多很棒的餐厅。
You can just stroll around.
你可以随便逛逛。
The fact that it’s scary, I don’t feel scared.
事实上，这很可怕，我并不感到害怕。
I agree that Beijingers are much more fun to talk to.
我同意北京人聊天更有趣。
I think that the funniest two parts of China are, first, the southwest, which is Sichuan, Guizhou, as well as Yunnan, and second, Beijing.
我觉得中国最好笑的两个地方，一是西南地区，就是四川、贵州、云南，二是北京。
Beijingers are so much funnier.
北京人真是有趣多了。
I think that the southwest is funny, Beijing is funny, Shanghai is not funny.
我觉得西南好笑，北京好笑，上海不好笑。
The Shanghainese can’t crack good jokes.
上海人讲不出好笑话。
I don’t really understand what’s with that.
我真的不明白那是怎么回事。
If we can somehow just bring all of these Beijingers, and throw them into Shanghai, and then perish the Shanghainese up to the north, I would feel quite fine with that.
如果我们能以某种方式把所有这些北京人都带到上海，然后把上海人消灭到北方，我就觉得很好了。
I prefer Chengdu to Chongqing.
比起重庆，我更喜欢成都。
I think Chongqing is visually spectacular in a way a few other parts of China are.
我认为重庆在视觉上与中国其他一些地方一样壮观。
That’s fun for me, but the greater refinement of Sichuan proper.
这对我来说很有趣，但四川本土更加精致。
Yes.
是的。
That’s true.
这是真的。
The Tibetan part of Chengdu is quite interesting.
成都的藏区还是蛮有趣的。
I agree.
我同意。
It feels like an older city in a way.
从某种程度上来说，它感觉就像一座古老的城市。
Again, I’m not sure I would prefer to live there, but as a visitor, it’s more different for me.
再说一次，我不确定我是否愿意住在那里，但作为一名游客，这对我来说更加不同。
Tyler, what does it say about us that you and I have generally a lot of similar interests in terms of, let’s call it books, music, all sorts of things, but when it comes to particular categories of things, we oppose each other diametrically.
泰勒，你和我在书籍、音乐等各种各样的事物上都有很多相似的兴趣，但当涉及到特定类别的事物时，我们却截然相反，这对我们意味着什么。
I much prefer Anna Karenina to War and Peace.
比起《战争与和平》，我更喜欢《安娜·卡列尼娜》。
I prefer Buddenbrooks to Magic Mountain.
比起魔法山，我更喜欢布登布鲁克。
Here again, you oppose me.
你又反对我了。
What’s the deal?
这是怎么回事？
I don’t think the differences are that big.
我认为差异没有那么大。
For instance, if we ask ourselves, what’s the relative ranking of Chengdu plus Chongqing compared to the rest of the world?
例如，如果我们问自己，成都和重庆与世界其他地区相比的相对排名如何？
We’re 98.5% in agreement compared to almost anyone else.
与几乎其他人相比，我们的同意率为 98.5%。
When you get to the micro level, the so-called narcissism of petty differences, obviously, you’re born in China.
当你到达微观层面时，所谓的小差异自恋，显然，你出生在中国。
I grew up in New Jersey.
我在新泽西州长大。
It’s going to shape our perspectives.
它将塑造我们的观点。
Anything in China, you have been there in a much more full-time way, and you speak and read Chinese, and none of that applies to me.
在中国的任何事情，你都以更全职的方式在那里，你说和读中文，但这些都不适用于我。
I’m popping in and out as a tourist.
我以游客的身份进进出出。
Then, I think the differences make much more sense.
然后，我认为这些差异更有意义。
It’s possible I would prefer to live in Shanghai for essentially the reasons you mentioned.
出于你提到的原因，我可能更喜欢住在上海。
If I’m somewhere for a week, I’m definitely going to pick Beijing.
如果我去某个地方一周，我肯定会选择北京。
I’ll go around to the galleries.
我会去画廊看看。
The things that are terrible about the city just don’t bother me that much, because I know I’ll be gone.
这座城市里那些可怕的事情并没有太困扰我，因为我知道我会离开。
98.5% agreement.
98.5% 同意。
I’ll take that, Tyler.
我会接受的，泰勒。
It’s you and me against the rest of the world, but then we’ll save our best disagreements for each other.
这是你和我对抗世界其他地方，但我们会为彼此保留最好的分歧。
Let’s see if you can pass an intellectual Turing test.
让我们看看你能否通过智力图灵测试。
Why is it that I think Yunnan is the single best place in the world to visit?
为什么我认为云南是世界上最好的旅游胜地？
Just flat out the best if you had to pick one region.
如果您必须选择一个地区，请选择最好的。
Not why you think it is, but why I think it is.
不是你为什么这么认为，而是我为什么这么认为。
Yes, I have a good sense of why I like it.
是的，我很清楚我为什么喜欢它。
I mean, if we’re in 98.5% agreement, then I don’t know if my views are going to be very different from yours.
我的意思是，如果我们有 98.5% 的共识，那么我不知道我的观点是否会与你的观点有很大不同。
Let me throw out a few ideas.
让我抛出一些想法。
First, you like natural beauty, and that is something that Yunnan has in abundance, between all of these different mountains and lakes.
首先，你喜欢自然美景，而云南拥有丰富的自然美景，在不同的山脉和湖泊之间。
I think that you like excellent food, and Yunnan has extraordinary diversity of food within its very province.
我认为你喜欢美味的食物，而云南省内的食物非常多样化。
I can’t get it elsewhere.
我在其他地方找不到它。
You can’t get it elsewhere.
你无法在其他地方得到它。
You like fresh food, and between the mushrooms, which are not easily shippable even to Shanghai or Beijing, you want some of that.
你喜欢新鲜的食物，而在即使是上海或北京也不容易运到的蘑菇之间，你想要一些。
You like a lot of ethnic diversity, and Yunnan has about half of China’s official 52 ethnic groups in the country, which you have Tibetans again in the north, and all sorts of Mosuo people, there’s the Dai, there’s the Jinuo, all sorts of people in the south.
你喜欢很多民族的多样性，云南拥有中国官方52个民族中的大约一半，北方有藏族，南方有各种各样的摩梭人，有傣族、基诺族，还有各种各样的人。
You are interested in thinking about geopolitics, and Yunnan is important for that, because Yunnan will control a lot of the major waterways.
你有兴趣思考地缘政治，而云南对此很重要，因为云南将控制很多主要水道。
There’s three major rivers that have their headwaters in Yunnan.
三大河流的源头都在云南。
The Yangtze flows from there, and so does the Mekong, which will flow south through Vietnam.
长江从那里流过，湄公河也从那里流过，向南流经越南。
Yunnan is a great place to dwell on geopolitics, because it is the part of the country that is most facing southeast Asia.
云南是一个研究地缘政治的好地方，因为它是该国最面向东南亚的地区。
There’s now a high-speed rail connecting the capital city of Kunming to the capital city of Yangjiang, which you can go through a lot of different regions there.
现在有一条高铁连接省会昆明和省会阳江，你可以经过很多不同的地区。
I think that there is also some pretty decent visual art culture in Yunnan, in part because during the Second World War, major parts of the nationalist government retreated to Chongqing.
我认为云南也有一些相当不错的视觉艺术文化，部分原因是在第二次世界大战期间，国民政府的主要部分撤退到了重庆。
There was a big satellite in Kunming as well, in which they tried to bring a lot more elite culture into the southwest.
昆明还有一个大卫星，他们试图把更多的精英文化带到西南。
Between the natural beauty of food, visual arts, am I missing anything here?
在食物的自然美和视觉艺术之间，我错过了什么吗？
Well, perfect weather you’ve left out.
好吧，你错过了完美的天气。
It also means you can visit any time of year, which for me is important, because I can’t get there that easily.
这也意味着您可以在一年中的任何时间访问，这对我来说很重要，因为我不能那么容易到达那里。
You don’t disagree that it’s excellent weather.
你不会不同意这是一个很好的天气。
Oh, it’s perfect weather most of the time, yes.
哦，是的，大部分时间都是完美的天气。
Some parts are relatively pro-American, you could say.
可以说，有些部分是相对亲美的。
Not a major factor, but certainly not a negative.
虽然不是主要因素，但也绝对不是负面因素。
We agree, right?
我们同意，对吧？
Did I pass the intellectual Turing test?
我通过了智力图灵测试吗？
You passed with flying colors.
你出色地通过了。
You did better than I could have done.
你做得比我做得更好。
Okay, perfect.
好的，完美。
Maybe it’s higher than 98.5%.
也许高于98.5%。
Very good.
非常好。
But War and Peace is still clearly better than Anna Karenina, which is more of a mono novel, and less complex and sprawling, right?
但《战争与和平》显然仍然比《安娜·卡列尼娜》更好，后者更像是一部单一小说，而且不那么复杂和庞大，对吧？
I think I prefer perfection a little bit more than you do.
我想我比你更喜欢完美。
I think this is why I prefer Mozart to Beethoven, that there is no musical question that Mozart did not solve to perfection.
我想这就是为什么我更喜欢莫扎特而不是贝多芬，没有莫扎特没有完美解决的音乐问题。
That Buddenbrooks is a more linear novel than The Magic Mountain.
《布登布鲁克》是一部比《魔山》更加线性的小说。
Buddenbrooks is a remarkably Confucian novel, because it is so much focused on family virtues, and punishing the unvirtuous.
《布登布鲁克》是一部非常典型的儒家小说，因为它非常注重家庭美德和惩罚不道德的人。
I think that Anna Karenina is just a much stronger love story than the story of Natasha Rostov.
我认为《安娜·卡列尼娜》只是一个比娜塔莎·罗斯托夫的故事更强烈的爱情故事。
On James C.
关于詹姆斯·C.
Scott, Zomia, and elite culture
斯科特、佐米亚和精英文化
What can James C.
詹姆斯·C. 能做什么？
Scott explain about Yunnan?
斯科特解释一下云南吗？
I guess the south in particular?
我猜特别是南方？
I am a major Scott head, and I think that James C.
我是斯科特的主要负责人，我认为詹姆斯·C.
Scott helped clarify my own views of Beijing in particular.
斯科特特别帮助澄清了我自己对北京的看法。
I think that James C.
我认为詹姆斯 C.
Scott’s most popular work, Seeing Like a State, is also, unfortunately, his, I would say, weakest work.
斯科特最受欢迎的作品《像一个国家一样看待》，不幸的是，我想说，也是他最薄弱的作品。
We agree on this too.
我们也同意这一点。
Okay, very good.
好的，非常好。
It is an extensively centralized view that he likes to criticize.
他喜欢批评这种高度集中的观点。
It’s a systematic view of human society.
这是对人类社会的系统看法。
I think that, by far, James C.
我认为，到目前为止，James C.
Scott’s very best work is The Art of Not Being Governed, in which he did extensive fieldwork in Yunnan, as well as the broader zone of southwest China and southeast Asia, which is heavily mountainous, an area that is larger than Western Europe.
斯科特最好的作品是《不被统治的艺术》，其中他在云南以及中国西南部和东南亚更广阔的地区进行了广泛的田野调查，这些地区多山，面积比西欧还要大。
Zomia is an academic term he borrowed from French academic Pierre Clastres.
Zomia是他从法国学者Pierre Clastres那里借用的一个学术术语。
It is this major zone where people decided to hide out from the state, whether this was the Burmese state, the Tibetan state, and overwhelmingly, the Han Chinese state.
正是在这个主要地区，人们决定躲避国家，无论是缅甸国家、西藏国家，还是绝大多数的汉族国家。
These people practiced escape agriculture, planting cassava, which is underground, or potatoes, as well as maize, which can grow in higher elevation.
这些人从事逃生农业，种植地下的木薯或土豆，以及可以在较高海拔地区生长的玉米。
Rather than planting grains like rice, or wheat, they have stronger oral cultures, so that they have greater ethnic malleability.
他们不种植水稻或小麦等谷物，而是拥有更强大的口头文化，因此具有更大的民族可塑性。
I think reading through all of that made me appreciate my status as twice an outsider.
我认为读完所有这些让我意识到自己作为局外人的身份。
First, as someone from southwest China, which is an economic backwater even today, hiding out from the state, hiding away from the imperial gaze, from Beijing, as well as the excessive commercialism of Shanghai, I am much more skeptical of Beijing’s power than I think someone who would just celebrate the grandeur.
首先，作为一个来自中国西南地区的人，即使在今天，中国的经济仍然是一潭死水，躲避国家，躲避帝国的目光，躲避北京，以及上海的过度商业化，我对北京的权力比我想象的那些只会庆祝其宏伟的人更加怀疑。
You’re a regional thinker, as I am.
你和我一样，都是一位地区性的思想家。
I am a regional thinker.
我是一个区域性的思想家。
I submit that my region of Yunnan is slightly different, and slightly more mountainous and more interesting than New Jersey.
我认为我所在的云南地区与新泽西州略有不同，山地更多，也更有趣。
Wouldn’t you agree?
你不同意吗？
New Jersey is more intellectual.
新泽西州更加知识分子。
You’re very close to New York City.
你离纽约市非常近。
You have access to the entire northeastern seaboard, New England, mid-Atlantic region.
您可以前往整个东北海岸、新英格兰、大西洋中部地区。
They’re both very interesting.
他们都很有趣。
I think it is fair to be more intellectual, because one knock against Zomia, given that so many cultures have only an oral culture, they didn’t really write things down.
我认为更加理智是公平的，因为对佐米亚的一击是，考虑到许多文化只有口头文化，他们并没有真正把东西写下来。
It is hard to be more intellectual.
变得更加理智是很困难的。
I feel like I am also an outsider in the United States by virtue of having grown up in Ottawa, where for many of us Canadians, we thought that the United States is the luminous center of the world.
由于在渥太华长大，我觉得自己也是美国的局外人，对于我们许多加拿大人来说，我们认为美国是世界的发光中心。
Then, coming over to living in New York City, as well as San Francisco, the two cities that I know the best, again, let’s not get into these screechingly loud subways.
然后，来到纽约和旧金山这两个我最熟悉的城市生活后，再次强调，我们不要进入这些刺耳的地铁。
Let’s not get into JFK.
我们不要进入肯尼迪机场。
The two of the most dysfunctional parts of the country, of course.
当然，这是这个国家功能最失调的两个地区。
It is also where the two of the most intellectual parts, the few places where a lot of the highest paid people choose to gather.
这也是两个最有智慧的部分，也是许多收入最高的人选择聚集的少数地方。
San Francisco’s streets are full of syringes.
旧金山的街道上到处都是注射器。
The transportation really does not work so well.
交通确实不太好。
I am critical of major aspects of China, because I am an outsider within China.
我对中国的主要方面持批评态度，因为我是中国的局外人。
I am critical of major aspects of the United States, because I’m an outsider in the US as well.
我对美国的主要方面持批评态度，因为我也是美国的局外人。
Now, one of the things I struggle with Scott, and I was at Yale University, but I regret that I never had a chance to chat with Scott before he passed away.
现在，我与斯科特斗争的一件事是，我在耶鲁大学，但我很遗憾在他去世之前我从未有机会与斯科特交谈。
Something that I’ve wanted to ask him is something that I try to grapple with myself.
我想问他的事情是我自己努力解决的事情。
You can accuse me of enjoying elite cultural products like the opera and Mozart, as well as great books like Buddenbrooks.
你可以指责我喜欢歌剧、莫扎特这样的精英文化产品，也喜欢《布登布鲁克》这样的好书。
I am sure that Scott is an extremely intellectual person, and he is not some sort of illiterate farmer walking bare feet among the mountains of Myanmar.
我确信斯科特是一个非常有智慧的人，他不是那种光着脚走在缅甸山区的文盲农民。
He was a professor at Yale University, which is also a quite elite place.
他是耶鲁大学的教授，那也是一个相当精英的地方。
Something that I grapple with, and I wonder how he grapples with is, how do you embrace some aspects of elite culture, while also prizing running away from the state?
我要解决的问题，我想知道他是如何解决的，你如何拥抱精英文化的某些方面，同时也重视逃离国家？
I don’t have a good answer here.
我这里没有好的答案。
Can you supply one for me, please?
可以给我提供一份吗？
I’m not sure there’s an answer to a question like that, but I think you can simply do it.
我不确定这样的问题是否有答案，但我认为你可以简单地做到这一点。
A lot of elite culture is quite revolutionary.
很多精英文化都是相当革命性的。
Maybe it’s rebelling against things that no longer existed.
也许这是对不再存在的事物的反抗。
You mentioned Mozart and Beethoven.
你提到了莫扎特和贝多芬。
They were revolutionaries in their time.
他们是那个时代的革命者。
Beethoven, in particular, a classical liberal.
尤其是贝多芬，他是一位古典自由主义者。
Mozart, some kind of Freemason, which was also a classical liberal view.
莫扎特，某种共济会会员，这也是古典自由主义观点。
There’s something about the music that is quite life-affirming.
音乐中有一些东西是非常肯定生命的。
Even when with Beethoven, it’s stormy, or pessimistic, or can get you down.
即使和贝多芬在一起，也会充满暴风雨，或者悲观，或者会让你沮丧。
Our current ruling elites are not exactly enamored of such things for the most part.
我们当前的统治精英在很大程度上并不热衷于这些事情。
I think it’s easy to just do both.
我认为两者都做很容易。
Yes.
是的。
Well, Donald Trump doesn’t like the ballet?
那么，唐纳德·特朗普不喜欢芭蕾舞吗？
I have no idea.
我不知道。
If you think of rulers in general, especially in the United States, France, for instance, might be different, they’re quite removed from what you and I would consider culture, for the most part.
如果你考虑一般的统治者，尤其是在美国、法国，例如，可能会有所不同，他们在很大程度上与你我所认为的文化相距甚远。
Really?
真的吗？
Macron doesn’t go to the —
马克龙不会去 ——
No, France is different, I believe.
不，我相信法国是不同的。
Most, the United States, for sure.
大多数，当然是美国。
Quite removed from what you and I would consider high culture.
与你我所认为的高雅文化相去甚远。
A few senators, maybe not.
一些参议员，也许不是。
The House of Representatives, no way.
众议院，没办法。
It’s country music, right?
这是乡村音乐，对吧？
I guess, yes.
我想是的。
Maybe this is a difference between the US and China.
也许这就是美国和中国的区别。
The United States is much more governed by its Zomia-like residents, who are much more rural, and who have a little bit more contempt for elite culture.
美国更多地是由佐米亚式的居民统治的，他们更加乡村化，对精英文化也更加蔑视。
That is different from Japan, Europe, as well as China.
这与日本、欧洲以及中国不同。
Our cities never served the same civilizing functions that they did in many other parts of the world.
我们的城市从未发挥过与世界其他许多地方相同的文明功能。
Virginia doesn’t even have cities.
弗吉尼亚州甚至没有城市。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
It’s one of the best things about it as a state.
作为一个州，这是最好的事情之一。
Virginia Beach is not a real city.
弗吉尼亚海滩不是一座真正的城市。
Fairfax County is not a real city.
费尔法克斯县不是一个真正的城市。
Richmond, I don’t know, is a few hundred thousand people.
里士满，我不知道，有几十万人。
It feels like a small real city.
感觉就像一个真正的小城市。
It’s just not that important.
只是没那么重要。
On a 10-day Yunnan itinerary
云南10天行程
Now, let’s say you’re designing a 10-day trip through Yunnan for our listeners, and say they don’t speak any Chinese, not really, but they have ChatGPT, and they’re a bit adventurous.
现在，假设您正在为我们的听众设计一次为期 10 天的云南之旅，并假设他们不会说中文，不是真的，但他们有 ChatGPT，而且他们有点冒险精神。
Where should they go?
他们应该去哪里？
What’s the trip like?
旅行怎么样？
If you have 10 days, I would say that you can cover quite a lot of Yunnan from the south to the north, or vice versa.
如果你有10天的时间，我想说你可以从南到北走遍整个云南，反之亦然。
You can go to Xishuangbanna in the south, which is my favorite corner of Yunnan, which has a lot of remarkable ethnic diversity.
你可以去南方的西双版纳，那是我最喜欢的云南一角，那里有很多令人瞩目的民族多样性。
You have certain ethnic groups that essentially dwell within one mountain, and they have a lot of their own customs and rites and practices, as well as some of their own language, and a lot of their own cuisines.
有些民族基本上居住在一座山上，他们有很多自己的风俗、仪式和做法，还有一些自己的语言和很多自己的美食。
It is where the Mekong River flows.
这里是湄公河的流经之地。
Essentially, it is the first major city that flows along the Mekong, which takes the meltwater from the Tibetan Himalayans that flow down.
从本质上讲，它是湄公河沿岸的第一个主要城市，湄公河吸收了流下的西藏喜马拉雅山的融水。
It is a tropical rainforest.
这是一片热带雨林。
You can get excellent mango, durian, all sorts of tropical fruits.
你可以买到优质的芒果、榴莲、各种热带水果。
It is my favorite region of China to eat.
这是我最喜欢吃的中国地区。
You will have some grilled fish, a lot of quite spicy beef, as well as other meats.
你会吃一些烤鱼，很多很辣的牛肉，还有其他肉类。
What I like to do is to just have a really big lunch, and then for dinner, I will buy a variety of tropical fruits, whether that’s mango, durian, a lot of other things as well.
我喜欢做的就是吃一顿丰盛的午餐，然后晚餐时，我会买各种热带水果，无论是芒果、榴莲还是很多其他东西。
Then, you can drive.
然后，你就可以开车了。
To get from Kunming to there, how hard is that, or how long does it take?
从昆明到那里有多难，或者需要多长时间？
It is only a four-hour train, high-speed rail.
只有四个小时的火车，高铁。
This is the other great thing about Yunnan.
这是云南的另一大优点。
You have extreme exoticism and diversity, but infrastructure is quite good.
这里有极端的异国情调和多样性，但基础设施也相当好。
Maybe below par by Chinese standards, but you get around quite easily.
也许低于中国标准，但你很容易出行。
Yes.
是的。
How about that infrastructure, Tyler?
泰勒，那个基础设施怎么样？
Maybe it’s good for something, right?
也许这对某些事情有好处，对吗？
It’s amazing.
太棒了。
Good for the tourists.
对游客有好处。
I love it.
我喜欢它。
If you drive a bit further north, you can stop by in Kunming, but I think that is probably the least interesting city in Yunnan.
如果你再往北行驶一点，你可以在昆明停留一下，但我认为那可能是云南最无趣的城市。
It’s the administrative center.
这是行政中心。
They’ve torn down a lot of their interesting historic buildings.
他们拆除了许多有趣的历史建筑。
You can drive a little bit through central Yunnan, which has some of the best mushrooms, but I would go further north immediately.
你可以开车穿过云南中部，那里有一些最好的蘑菇，但我会立即向北走。
The twin cities of Dali and Lijiang have been treasured for a long time.
大理和丽江这对友好城市，自古以来就备受珍视。
Lijiang now, I think, is fully broken.
现在的丽江，我想，已经完全破碎了。
Now, it has really dramatic snow mountains.
现在，它的雪山真的很壮观。
It has these snowy, close to Himalayan-like peaks, but as a town, it has totally hollowed out through commercial culture.
它有这些白雪皑皑、接近喜马拉雅山的山峰，但作为一个城镇，它已经被商业文化完全掏空了。
Dali is a city that I love.
大理是一座我爱的城市。
This is where my wife and I spent three months when Shanghai was locked down.
上海封城期间，我和妻子在这里度过了三个月的时光。
It is a city that reveals itself to those who properly live there.
这是一座向那些适当居住在那里的人展示自己的城市。
Its mountains are not quite so dramatic.
它的山脉并不那么引人注目。
It has a wonderfully big lake, but it has excellent community.
它有一个非常大的湖泊，但也有很棒的社区。
It has excellent gemeinschaft.
它具有出色的团结。
There are many people brewing coffee there, and trying to maintain the local Bai culture very, very well.
有很多人在那里煮咖啡，并努力很好地保留当地的白族文化。
It is a lot of where cosmopolitan Chinese, as well as some foreigners, like to spend a lot of their time.
这是国际化的中国人以及一些外国人喜欢花大量时间的地方。
Dali itself will not reveal to you if you are simply passing through, but if you had a few months to live there, that is the corner of China that I would live in.
如果你只是路过，大理本身不会向你透露，但如果你有几个月的时间在那里生活，那就是我想居住的中国角落。
It’s also where my parents met in the 1980s when they were sent down as college graduates to go teach the local Bai people.
这也是我父母在 20 世纪 80 年代相遇的地方，当时他们作为大学毕业生被下放到当地白族教书。
It was a tremendous adventure for them.
这对他们来说是一次巨大的冒险。
That’s a personally interesting place for me.
这对我个人来说是一个有趣的地方。
Then, I would go to the extreme north, past Shangri-La, which is, again, a mostly touristed-out city that has some important monasteries.
然后，我会去最北的地方，经过香格里拉，这又是一个游客最多的城市，有一些重要的寺庙。
Shangri-La was so fully embraced commercial tourism that it renamed itself about 20 years ago to be this mythical land, essentially, to capture a bunch of tourists in this very cynical ploy.
香格里拉如此全面地拥抱商业旅游业，以至于大约20年前它更名为“这片神话之地”，本质上是为了通过这种非常愤世嫉俗的策略来吸引一群游客。
The best part and the most beautiful part of Yunnan is in the extreme north, in which you’re running essentially into Tibet.
云南最好的部分和最美丽的部分在最北端，在那里你基本上会进入西藏。
There are no travel restrictions throughout that part of Yunnan, where, yes, there are some travel restrictions, I believe, still remaining for part of the extreme westernmost parts of Sichuan which border Tibet.
云南的整个地区都没有旅行限制，是的，我相信，四川最西端与西藏接壤的部分地区仍然存在一些旅行限制。
It is possible to go to some of these Tibetan monasteries, as I have, and listen to some of their chants, and visit these extraordinarily beautiful snow mountains.
可以像我一样去一些西藏寺院，听听他们的诵经，参观这些异常美丽的雪山。
Now, if I had 10 days, I could travel through all of that.
现在，如果我有 10 天的时间，我就能经历这一切。
Otherwise, I would just park myself for five days in Xishuangbanna, visit some of the local villages and mountains there, and then fly north, as far as you can go, in Yunnan, and then spend some days among the Tibetan praying monks there.
否则，我会在西双版纳停留五天，参观那里的一些当地村庄和山脉，然后向北飞到尽可能远的云南，然后在那里的藏族祈祷僧侣中度过几天。
One difference between us, I enjoy seeing Chinese tourists.
我们之间的一个区别是，我喜欢见到中国游客。
For me, it’s novel.
对我来说，这很新颖。
For you, you’re trying to avoid it, right?
对你来说，你正在努力避免它，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
I will also say that part of the reason that I’m so into some of these tribes is that, the ethnic groups in China is that within my family allure — again, I don’t know how accurate this is — but there’s speculation that through one of my grandmothers who come from, whose origins are cheerfully unknown, that we have Tibetan heritage through her or Wa heritage through her.
我还要说的是，我如此喜欢其中一些部落的部分原因是，中国的少数民族群体在我的家庭中具有吸引力——“再说一次，我不知道这有多准确”——但有人猜测，通过我的一位祖母，她的出身不明，我们通过她拥有西藏血统，或者通过她拥有佤族血统。
Again, in that sense, although I would officially be categorized as a member of the Han majority in China, there could be that there’s some Tibetan or Wa in me.
再说一次，从这个意义上说，虽然我被正式归类为中国的汉族成员，但我身上可能有一些藏族或佤族人。
On Chinese arts, literature, and cultural expression
论中国艺术、文学和文化表现
Who’s the greatest living Chinese novelist?
谁是中国现存最伟大的小说家？
Liu Cixin, author of The Three-Body Problem.
刘慈欣，《三体》作者。
If I try to read Mo Yan and I’m bored, he’s the Nobel laureate, what am I missing, or is it in fact boring?
如果我尝试阅读莫言，但我感到无聊，他是诺贝尔奖获得者，我错过了什么，或者它实际上很无聊？
I don’t like a lot of the magical realism stuff, and I think that you do, generally, between the Spanish authors, as well as the Japanese authors, but why is Mo Yan not speaking to you?
我不喜欢很多魔幻现实主义的东西，我认为一般来说，你喜欢西班牙作家和日本作家，但为什么莫言不和你说话呢？
I’m not reading it in Chinese, of course.
当然，我读的不是中文版。
It doesn’t seem exceptional.
这似乎并不例外。
It’s okay.
没关系。
A lot of the Spanish authors, they’re much better in Spanish, I find.
我发现很多西班牙作家的西班牙语水平都更好。
I’m simply not attracted to magical realism in whatever culture, so I don’t really enjoy Mo Yan very well.
无论哪种文化，我都不会被魔幻现实主义所吸引，所以我不太喜欢莫言。
What’s the best Chinese movie?
中国最好的电影是什么？
Something from Jia Zhangke, or early Zhang Yimou.
贾樟柯或者早期张艺谋的一些东西。
I think these would be the consensus answers.
我认为这些将是共识的答案。
Give us a title, one title.
给我们一个头衔，一个头衔。
Mountains May Depart, but let me throw in one title also from Zhang Yimou.
山将去，但让我加一个同样来自张艺谋的头衔。
I believe the English name is The Story of Qiu Zhi.
我相信英文名字是The Story of Qiuzhi。
This is, I believe, mid-’80s Zhang Yimou, in which you have a Gong Li, who is fabulous as always, walking through the Chinese countryside in a northwestern city, probably around Xi’an.
我相信这是80年代中期的张艺谋，其中有巩俐，她一如既往地出色，走在中国西北城市（可能是西安附近）的乡村。
What you see are these street scenes of Deng Xiaoping’s China, just that it is starting to bustle.
你看到的是邓小平时代中国的街景，只是它开始热闹起来。
I think it is a movie about bureaucracy, and it is a movie about courts.
我认为这是一部关于官僚主义的电影，也是一部关于法庭的电影。
I think the Chinese are really wonderful at portraying bureaucracy.
我认为中国人非常擅长描绘官僚主义。
There are a lot of these genres of bureaucracy porn in terms of some of their novels, which could be fun reading for some people, especially if you work inside the US federal government, you can see some parallels.
在他们的一些小说中，有很多这样的官僚色情类型，这对某些人来说可能很有趣，特别是如果你在美国联邦政府内部工作，你可以看到一些相似之处。
The best Chinese TV series in recent years, not that it is very good, all these Chinese series are too long, but I watched a couple of episodes of an anti-corruption drama called In the Name of the People.
近年来最好的中国电视剧，不是说它很好，所有这些中国电视剧都太长了，但是我看了几集反腐剧《人民的名义》。
In the very first episode, you have three men spending about half the episode arguing about jurisdiction.
在第一集中，三个男人花了大约一半的时间来争论管辖权。
What could be more jurisdictional?
还有什么比这更具管辖权呢？
What could be more bureaucratic than jurisdiction, right?
还有什么比管辖权更官僚的呢，对吧？
Why isn’t contemporary Chinese music better than it is, or maybe you would challenge the premise?
为什么当代中国音乐没有比现在更好，或者也许你会挑战这个前提？
It is a huge market.
这是一个巨大的市场。
It’s censored, but music can be wonderful, and still be censored, right?
它受到审查，但音乐可以很美妙，但仍然受到审查，对吗？
Tyler, you are asking the wrong person, because my knowledge of music essentially stops by 1928.
泰勒，你问错人了，因为我对音乐的了解基本上到了 1928 年为止。
That’s endogenous, as we say.
正如我们所说，这是内生的。
I don’t listen to any American contemporary music.
我不听任何美国当代音乐。
I would ask you, why is American contemporary music so weak relative to Mozart?
我想问你，为什么美国当代音乐相对于莫扎特那么弱？
I was just listening to the latest Beyoncé CD.
我刚刚在听最新的碧昂斯 CD。
It is not as good as Mozart, but I think it is wonderful, and it will last.
它不如莫扎特，但我认为它很精彩，而且会持续下去。
American contemporary music has been a bit slow for the last, say, dozen years, but I think the last 60 years have been amazing.
美国当代音乐在过去十几年里有点缓慢，但我认为过去 60 年是惊人的。
Well, I would say that Chinese music is not a special case, in which Chinese films have gotten steadily worse over the last 10 years of Xi Jinping’s rule.
嗯，我想说，中国音乐并不是一个特例，中国电影在习近平统治的过去十年里一直在恶化。
You have the top art house movie director Jia Zhangke being openly frustrated about the censorship regime, that there is this clear preference in China for ballads, which are a holdover from, basically, the Communist days plus the Cantopop that was imported from Hong Kong.
顶级艺术电影导演贾樟柯公开对审查制度感到沮丧，因为中国对民谣有明显的偏好，这些民谣基本上是共产主义时代的遗留物，加上从香港进口的粤语流行音乐。
They haven’t really been able to move on.
他们还没有真正能够继续前进。
That Chinese visual arts has gotten also weaker steadily over the last 10 years of Xi Jinping’s rule.
在习近平统治的过去十年里，中国视觉艺术也逐渐衰弱。
I would say, generally, Chinese culture has gotten weaker and weaker.
我想说，总体来说，中国文化已经越来越弱了。
It is no surprise to me that Liu Cixin wrote most of The Three-Body Problem before Xi Jinping came into office.
《三体》的大部分内容是刘慈欣在习近平上任之前写的，这对我来说并不奇怪。
A lot of things are getting worse.
很多事情都在变得更糟。
It is not just the music.
这不仅仅是音乐。
Why is volume one of Three-Body Problem the best of the three volumes?
为什么《三体》第一卷是三卷中最好的？
It is the most Chinese of the three.
这是三者中最中国化的一个。
It integrates discussions of the past much more effectively than the second volume.
它比第二卷更有效地整合了过去的讨论。
The third volume, to me, felt mostly like rubbish.
对我来说，第三卷感觉大部分都是垃圾。
The second volume is so much more forward-looking.
第二卷更具前瞻性。
I do enjoy the second volume quite a lot.
我确实非常喜欢第二卷。
I think the second volume is totally excellent for being a really great science fiction novel.
我认为第二卷非常适合作为一部真正伟大的科幻小说。
There are themes and discussions of strategic deception, a very Chinese theme to pick up.
其中有关于战略欺骗的主题和讨论，这是一个非常中国化的主题。
The strategic deception is everywhere in the first volume as well.
战略欺骗在第一卷中也随处可见。
The prominent scientist who doesn’t even tell anyone that she alerted extraterrestrials to conquer humanity.
这位著名的科学家甚至没有告诉任何人她警告外星人征服人类。
It integrates the cultural revolution much more effectively.
它更有效地整合了文化大革命。
It is also a rollicking good police drama as well.
这也是一部欢乐的警匪剧。
The top cop, the detective in the first volume, is just such a recognizably Beijing character, who is competent, funny, full of humanity, also has to obey orders when his superiors tell him what to do.
第一卷里的刑警头子，就是这样一个典型的北京人，干练、风趣、富有人性，上级叫他做什么也必须服从命令。
These marriage markets in Chinese parks, the parents come or maybe grandparents.
中国公园里的这些婚姻市场，父母来了，也许祖父母也来了。
They help put up ads for their kids.
他们帮助为孩子们贴广告。
How effective are they?
它们的效果如何？
It’s very effective for the parents who feel like they’re doing something for the kids.
对于那些觉得自己在为孩子做事的父母来说，这非常有效。
I am not sure that they have actually produced a lot of excellent marriages.
我不确定他们是否真的缔造了很多美好的婚姻。
Now, I think that one thing that China clearly does so much better than the rest of the world, especially America, is that it is great to be an old person if you are in China.
现在，我认为中国明显比世界其他国家，尤其是美国做得更好的一件事是，如果你在中国，当个老人真是太好了。
You go out to the park.
你出去公园。
There will be many people doing some sort of ballroom dancing.
会有很多人跳某种交际舞。
They’ll be practicing Tai Chi.
他们将练习太极拳。
They will be dancing haphazardly to music from America that they cannot understand.
他们将随着他们无法理解的美国音乐随意跳舞。
They’re doing all sorts of calisthenics.
他们正在做各种健美操。
There’s a lot of community.
有很多社区。
You can be playing Chinese chess.
你可以下中国象棋。
You could be playing mahjong.
你可能正在打麻将。
People will just come to talk to you.
人们只会来和你说话。
My elderly grandfather spoke to anyone in the yard, mostly because he was deaf.
我年迈的祖父和院子里的任何人都说话，主要是因为他聋了。
He was just able to yell at them.
他只能对他们大喊大叫。
Marriage markets are something like calisthenics.
婚姻市场有点像健美操。
It’s just something that old people do to hang out in the parks.
这只是老年人在公园闲逛时所做的事情。
I don’t think it produces many great marriages, because I think young people are not very interested in having their parents set up their spouses for them.
我不认为这会产生很多美好的婚姻，因为我认为年轻人对让父母为他们安排配偶不太感兴趣。
On the Dan Wang production function
论丹王生产函数
For our final segment, just a few questions about you.
在我们的最后一部分，我只问几个关于您的问题。
Why was it the clarinet that you decided to learn how to play at a very high level?
为什么您决定学习高水平的单簧管演奏？
I am attracted to the beauty of the clarinet.
我被单簧管的美丽所吸引。
I think that there has been some studies that the clarinet is the instrument most close to the human voice.
我认为已经有一些研究表明单簧管是最接近人声的乐器。
I was not a very technical player, but I feel like I achieved a degree of musicality that some of my teachers recognized.
我不是一个技术性很强的演奏者，但我觉得我达到了一些老师认可的音乐性程度。
Now, I will say that I haven’t played the clarinet now for over 12 years now, mostly because growing up, I had chronic bronchitis.
现在，我要说的是，我已经有 12 年多没有演奏单簧管了，主要是因为在成长过程中，我患有慢性支气管炎。
One year, my lungs collapsed, and I couldn’t play that here.
有一年，我的肺衰竭了，我无法在这里演奏。
I never really picked it back up.
我从来没有真正把它捡起来。
Rather than playing music, I’ve transitioned smoothly to spending a lot of time listening to opera.
我已经顺利地过渡到花很多时间听歌剧，而不是演奏音乐。
When I’m listening to opera, I think it is not surprising that the soprano’s voice most approximates the musicality of a very fine clarinet player.
当我听歌剧时，我认为女高音的声音最接近优秀单簧管演奏者的音乐性并不奇怪。
To me, I am indulging in all of my music interests by listening to especially Mozart, but also Rossini, Donizetti, Bellini, and Verdi.
对我来说，我通过听莫扎特、罗西尼、多尼采蒂、贝利尼和威尔第的音乐来沉迷于我所有的音乐兴趣。
Which is the most underrated opera?
最被低估的歌剧是哪部？
Così fan Tutte is never properly held up as being above Don Giovanni, or The Marriage of Figaro.
《女人心》从来没有被认为高于《唐璜》或《费加罗的婚礼》。
The Marriage of Figaro is definitely the most perfect opera.
《费加罗的婚礼》绝对是最完美的歌剧。
Maybe you can say that Don Giovanni is the greatest of them, but I would say that Così fan Tutte is the most underrated.
也许你可以说《唐璜》是其中最伟大的，但我会说《女人心》是最被低估的。
How has knowing classical music helped you to understand China better?
了解古典音乐如何帮助您更好地了解中国？
I think a lot about the Communist Party as a Leninist technocracy with grand opera characteristics.
我对共产党有很多看法，认为它是一个具有大歌剧特征的列宁主义技术统治国家。
If you watch some of these proceedings from the party congresses held by the Communist Party, which take place every five years, it really feels like watching a Wagnerian opera by other means, in which there’s less noise, but much greater drama.
如果你在每五年举行一次的共产党代表大会上观看这些会议记录，你真的感觉就像通过其他方式观看瓦格纳的歌剧一样，噪音更少，但戏剧性更大。
The last party congress was, of course, the party congress in which Xi Jinping more or less forcibly removed his predecessor, Hu Jintao, after Hu Jintao tugged away at some papers.
当然，上届党代会是在胡锦涛撕毁了一些文件之后，习近平或多或少地强行罢免了前任胡锦涛的党代会。
Now, I still don’t understand what exactly happened there.
现在，我仍然不明白那里到底发生了什么。
I wonder if we will ever have a good answer of what Hu Jintao was looking at, and what he was objecting to, and why Xi Jinping decided to humiliate an elder in that way.
不知道胡锦涛到底在看什么、反对什么、习近平为什么要这样羞辱一位长辈，我们能否得到一个好的答案。
What I am much keener for is to avoid these Wagnerian excesses, in which every so often it really feels like the Communist Party is ready to march the entire country into Valhalla with them.
我更渴望的是避免这些瓦格纳式的过激行为，在这种行为中，时不时地感觉共产党已经准备好与他们一起将整个国家带入瓦尔哈拉殿堂。
I would love it if the Chinese had a little bit of a better sense of the comic operas of Rossini, or Mozart, or Donizetti, who have smiling optimism, who have a sense of irony, who have a sense of humor.
如果中国人能更好地理解罗西尼、莫扎特、多尼采蒂的喜歌剧，我会很高兴，他们有微笑的乐观态度，有讽刺感，有幽默感。
China’s Politburo is totally po-faced.
中国的政治局完全板着脸。
There’s no humor among them, but there is just so much wonderful irony, especially in Mozart, in which, take a look at a lot of the love songs, almost none of them are meant to be very sincere, and meant to really declare love for the intended target.
其中没有幽默感，却有很多精彩的讽刺，尤其是莫扎特的，看很多情歌，几乎没有一首是真心的，是真心向对象表达爱意的。
What did you learn from your time as a Royal Canadian Army cadet?
作为加拿大皇家陆军学员，您学到了什么？
I think the trite answer is just a lot of discipline.
我认为老套的答案就是大量的纪律。
I think that I was a bad kid growing up.
我认为我从小就是一个坏孩子。
I was absolutely not a good child, and I’ll be the first to admit that.
我绝对不是一个好孩子，我会第一个承认这一点。
What does that mean concretely?
这具体意味着什么？
Ottawa is not only the federal capital of Canada, but it is also the drug capital of Canada.
渥太华不仅是加拿大的联邦首都，也是加拿大的毒品之都。
It is very easy to fall into a mischievous crowd when you’re over there.
当你在那里时，很容易陷入顽皮的人群中。
I was playing hooky from school a little bit too much, and running off, and trying to do whatever I found fun and not going to school.
我逃学的次数有点太多了，然后逃跑，尝试做任何我觉得有趣的事情，而不去上学。
I never had good grades growing up.
我成长过程中从来没有好成绩。
To this day, I will admit that I was academically challenged.
直到今天，我承认我在学业上受到了挑战。
I always just enjoyed taking a book to read in the park or something, rather than sitting in class.
我总是喜欢带本书去公园或其他地方看书，而不是坐在课堂上。
My main issue was that I played hooky a little bit too much, raised the ire of my parents.
我的主要问题是我逃学有点太多了，引起了我父母的愤怒。
My parents threatened to give me to the army, and I laughed that off, because no parents ever do that.
我的父母威胁要把我送去军队，我一笑置之，因为没有父母这样做过。
Then, my mom did it.
然后，我妈妈就这么做了。
She gave me to the Royal Canadian Army cadets, and they straightened me out.
她把我交给了加拿大皇家陆军学员，他们纠正了我的错误。
I was a very good army cadet.
我是一名非常优秀的军校学员。
I was awarded recruit of the year.
我被评为年度新兵。
I was the fastest person in my regiment to be promoted to corporal.
我是我们团里晋升下士最快的人。
I was in the marching band, and I did excellent drill as well.
我是军乐队的成员，我的训练也非常出色。
Something I take away from some of the commanding officers whom I grew close to, they would tell me that the ethic of the army was that whatever you imagine is the most difficult thing, you should simply reconceptualize it as the easiest thing, and then you just do it.
我从一些与我关系密切的指挥官那里学到了一些东西，他们会告诉我，军队的道德是，无论你想象什么是最困难的事情，你都应该简单地把它重新概念化为最简单的事情，然后你就去做。
It turned out to have been a fairly robust lesson.
事实证明这是一个相当有力的教训。
How did you learn how to write so well?
你是怎么学会写得这么好的？
I have always grown up loving to read.
我从小就热爱读书。
My grandfather bought so many books for me, first picture books that had text underneath.
我的祖父给我买了很多书，第一本有文字的图画书。
Then, my mother also encouraged a reading habit.
然后，妈妈还鼓励我养成读书的习惯。
We had so many books growing up.
我们的成长过程中有很多书。
I think that if I were thinking about writing, first and foremost, I pay attention to cadences.
我认为如果我在考虑写作，首先我会注意节奏。
I think about beat.
我想到节拍。
I think about the musicality of the effect.
我考虑了效果的音乐性。
I think that it is really, really valuable to just have a sense of how the words sound before it falls out of your pen.
我认为在单词从你的笔下落下之前了解一下单词的发音是非常非常有价值的。
I have a sense of practice.
我有一种实践的感觉。
When I was a musician, every so often I would take some time when I was still a college student to just go to the music library, check out some scores.
当我还是一名音乐家时，当我还是一名大学生时，我经常会花一些时间去音乐图书馆，查看一些乐谱。
I did this with a Mahler symphony as well as some Mozart symphonies, to just simply copy out the scores, and just write it all out.
我用马勒交响曲和一些莫扎特交响曲做了这个，只是简单地抄出乐谱，然后把它们全部写出来。
I did this exercise also when I was early in my writing.
我在写作初期也做过这个练习。
I would just take a New Yorker article that I really liked, and simply rewrite the entire thing.
我只会拿一篇我真正喜欢的《纽约客》文章，然后重写整个内容。
When you engage in that sort of exercise, you really have a sense of what the composer was thinking when he was plotting out the harmonies.
当你进行这种练习时，你就能真正感受到作曲家在设计和声时的想法。
When you do that with a really good piece of writing, whether that’s a New Yorker article, or a really good book, you start having a sense of the choices that the author was making in terms of syntax, in terms of sentence length, in terms of the word choices, and being in a position to make those sorts of choices, I think, is very valuable.
当你写一篇真正好的文章时，无论是《纽约客》的文章，还是一本真正的好书，你都会开始了解作者在语法、句子长度、单词选择方面所做的选择，我认为，能够做出这些选择是非常有价值的。
Why is Stendhal your favorite novelist?
为什么司汤达是您最喜欢的小说家？
Stendhal is someone who loved voluptuous excess, like one of his heroes, Rossini.
司汤达是一个热爱放荡的人，就像他的英雄之一罗西尼一样。
I think a lot about the wonderful musicality of Rossini.
我对罗西尼美妙的音乐性思考了很多。
The Barber of Seville is a great place to start.
塞维利亚理发师是一个很好的起点。
Rossini also wrote these comic operas that sound a little bit strange today in terms of only their titles, The Italian Girl in Algiers, The Turk in Italy.
罗西尼还写过这些喜剧，仅从标题来看，今天听起来有点奇怪，《阿尔及尔的意大利女孩》、《意大利的土耳其人》。
These were early operas.
这些是早期的歌剧。
He composed them, I think, in his early or mid-’20s.
我想，他是在 20 岁出头或二十岁出头的时候创作的。
They are so much fun to listen to.
他们的讲话非常有趣。
The voice mixing really bursts when you have excellent singers.
当你有优秀的歌手时，混音真的会爆发。
Then, you have some really excellent late works, like the Comte Ory, which is Rossini’s final opera.
然后，你会看到一些非常优秀的晚期作品，比如《奥里伯爵》，这是罗西尼的最后一部歌剧。
Very underrated, I think.
我认为非常被低估。
Very underrated.
非常被低估。
It’s very silly.
这很愚蠢。
Do you know what I’m talking about with the final trio, which lasts about 10 minutes at the very end?
你知道我在谈论最后的三重奏吗？最后的三重奏持续了大约 10 分钟？
Do you know that?
你知道吗？
I would have to hear it again.
我得再听一遍。
It is these voices encircling and entwining, which I think is one of the most beautiful parts of opera ever.
正是这些声音环绕、缠绕，我认为这是歌剧史上最美丽的部分之一。
This is something that I sometimes listen to on loop when I’m writing, because there is just a remarkable beauty.
这是我写作时有时会循环听的东西，因为它有一种非凡的美感。
Stendhal loved Rossini.
司汤达喜爱罗西尼。
Stendhal mentioned the Comte Ory in my favorite book, my favorite novel, The Red and the Black.
司汤达在我最喜欢的书、我最喜欢的小说《红与黑》中提到了奥里伯爵。
I reread The Red and the Black when I was living in Copenhagen in the summer, wondering whether it would hold up.
夏天我住在哥本哈根时，我重读了《红与黑》，想知道它是否站得住脚。
It was my fourth time rereading it.
这是我第四次重读它。
This was one of my mother’s favorite novels as well, and she gave it to me to read.
这也是我母亲最喜欢的小说之一，她把它送给我读。
I think that The Red and the Black still holds up very well.
我认为《红与黑》仍然表现得很好。
It is a story of ambition, of an extraordinarily ambitious young man who has to choose between trying to join the army, or trying to join the priesthood.
这是一个雄心勃勃的故事，讲述了一个雄心勃勃的年轻人必须在参军和成为牧师之间做出选择的故事。
Then, making these ridiculous errors in love, and gets humiliated along the way, attends the performance of the Comte Ory, and ends in a great tragedy.
然后，在爱情中犯下这些荒唐的错误，一路上受尽屈辱，观看了奥里伯爵的演出，最后酿成一场大悲剧。
Along the way, there are some just these very voluptuous descriptions of love, and it is all the while very funny to boot.
一路上，有一些非常性感的爱情描述，而且启动起来一直很有趣。
What do you think of Stendhal?
您对司汤达有何看法？
I like him very much, but I’ve never loved it.
我很喜欢他，但我从来没有爱过。
It feels distant to me.
感觉离我很遥远。
That’s a notable difference between us.
这是我们之间的显着差异。
Stendhal has had some very passionate fans.
司汤达拥有一些非常热情的粉丝。
John F.
约翰·F.
Kennedy read a lot of Stendhal.
肯尼迪读了很多司汤达的著作。
Robert Alter, before he translated the Torah, wrote a biography of Stendhal called A Lion for Love.
罗伯特·阿尔特在翻译《托拉》之前，写了一本司汤达的传记，名为《爱的狮子》。
I think one other remarkable thing about Stendhal is just that he inspires passion among those of us who appreciate the Italian ecstatic commitment to the art of song.
我认为司汤达的另一项非凡之处在于，他激发了我们这些欣赏意大利人对歌曲艺术的欣喜若狂的人们的热情。
I will reread.
我会重读。
Before the last two questions, let me just plug your book again, which I was very happy to have blurbed.
在最后两个问题之前，让我再次插入你的书，我很高兴能把它弄脏。
Dan Wang, it is Breakneck: China’s Quest to Engineer the Future.
王丹，这就是《危险：中国对未来的探索》。
Final two questions, possibly related.
最后两个问题，可能相关。
First, what do you want to learn about next?
首先，接下来你想了解什么？
Second, what will you do next?
第二，你接下来要做什么？
I would really like to curl up on my couch, and read a lot more novels, follow the Henry Oliver, Hollis Robbins’ Great Books program to just read a lot more authors.
我真的很想蜷缩在沙发上，读更多的小说，跟随亨利·奥利弗、霍利斯·罗宾斯的伟大图书计划，阅读更多的作者。
I have a lot of history books that I am very keen to read, and follow along the Stephen Kotkin program for reading a lot of excellent histories.
我有很多我非常热衷于阅读的历史书籍，并且按照斯蒂芬·科特金计划阅读了很多优秀的历史。
These are the two genres that I’m interested in thinking about.
这是我有兴趣思考的两种类型。
I think I am thinking in terms of my professional life, having more extensive following along evaluation of the US-China competition, and I am trying to come to a net assessment of what is going on between the US and China.
我想我正在从我的职业生涯角度思考，对中美竞争有更广泛的跟踪评估，我试图对中美之间正在发生的事情做出一个净评估。
What is competition, coexistence?
什么是竞争、共存？
The contest really look like over the longer term?
从长远来看，这场竞赛真的是什么样子？
I think that this is going to be something that we’re all living through, something I have some perspectives and views on that I think is going to be fruitful for thinking about the future.
我认为这将是我们所有人都在经历的事情，我对此有一些观点和看法，我认为这对于思考未来将是富有成效的。
On Tyler’s grand strategy, or lack thereof
关于泰勒的大战略或缺乏大战略
Tyler, I want to ask you that you have had these really remarkable pivots throughout your life.
泰勒，我想问你，你一生中经历过这些非常了不起的转折点。
You had your PhD in economics from Harvard.
您拥有哈佛大学经济学博士学位。
You studied under a great adviser, Thomas Schelling.
您在一位伟大的顾问托马斯·谢林的指导下学习。
You published in top economics journals.
您在顶级经济学期刊上发表过文章。
You were an early economics blogger.
您是一位早期的经济学博主。
You have been doing all sorts of new things related to Marginal Revolution University and Emergent Ventures.
您一直在做与边际革命大学和新兴风险投资公司相关的各种新事物。
Now, you are doing a lot of things on AI.
现在，你们在人工智能上做了很多事情。
You’ve started this extraordinarily successful podcast, which I’ve always felt we should maybe rectify the name, sir.
您已经开始了这个非常成功的播客，我一直觉得我们应该纠正这个名字，先生。
Rather than having this be called Conversations with Tyler, maybe we should call this Interrogations by Tyler.
也许我们不应该将其称为“与泰勒的对话”，而应该将其称为“泰勒的审讯”。
That’s fine.
没关系。
Maybe sometime we should have a rebrand of this.
也许有一天我们应该重新命名它。
How do you decide how to pivot, how to be an early blogger?
你如何决定如何转型，如何成为一名早期博主？
How to continue learning new things?
如何持续学习新事物？
For me, it’s quite arbitrary, and based on whim.
对我来说，这是相当随意的，并且是基于一时兴起的。
I simply feel I need to start doing, or continuing something, and there’s no grand strategy or plan behind it.
我只是觉得我需要开始做某事或继续做某事，背后没有宏伟的战略或计划。
It’s gone well for me.
对我来说进展顺利。
That’s endogenous, right?
这是内生的，对吧？
I suppose I trust my instincts.
我想我相信自己的直觉。
Yes, my instincts are endogenous.
是的，我的本能是内生的。
To have no grand strategy, but to always be able to pivot like that, that is still a grand strategy in itself, no?
没有大战略，但总能这样转动，这本身就是一个大战略，不是吗？
If there’s a new thing it seems I can learn, or should learn, I’ll want to do it.
如果有一件新的事情我似乎可以学习，或者应该学习，我就会想做。
You could call that a grand strategy, like to become an information trillionaire.
你可以称之为宏伟战略，比如成为信息亿万富翁。
It’s a grand strategy.
这是一个宏伟的战略。
Different things pop up.
不同的东西会弹出。
You figure this is an effective way to learn.
您认为这是一种有效的学习方式。
Travel would be part of this, and so I do it.
旅行是其中的一部分，所以我就这么做了。
I guess that’s my grand strategy if I had to describe one as such.
如果我必须这样描述的话，我想这就是我的宏伟战略。
It’s not predictable what I’ll be doing, say, four years from now.
无法预测四年后我会做什么。
I actually think it will be pretty close to what I’m doing now, but I’m not sure of that.
事实上，我认为这将非常接近我现在正在做的事情，但我对此并不确定。
I could imagine doing more with AI, but the AIs are good enough.
我可以想象用人工智能做更多的事情，但人工智能已经足够好了。
I’m not sure at that point what my contribution to them might be.
那时我不确定我对他们的贡献是什么。
Something like Emergent Ventures, it is something that you started.
像 Emergent Ventures 这样的公司，是你自己创办的。
Did you imagine that you would have built out a great network of folks to build out the Marginal Revolution extended universe of so many people that you have been able to support?
你是否想象过你会建立一个巨大的人际网络来构建你能够支持的这么多人的边际革命扩展宇宙？
When I started it, I thought it would be a small thing that would be over in six months.
当我开始的时候，我以为这只是一件小事，六个月内就会结束。
Clearly, that was wrong, completely wrong.
显然，这是错误的，完全错误的。
Now it’s seven or eight years, and we have over 1,300 winners.
现在已经七八年了，我们已经有1300多个获奖者了。
I thought there’d be 15 winners.
我以为会有 15 名获胜者。
They’d be really great, and then, that would be it.
他们真的很棒，然后就这样了。
I’d go back to doing things I was doing before then.
我会回去做之前做的事情。
Of course, that’s not how it’s gone.
当然，事情并不是这样过去的。
My final question, and then I’ll stop hijacking your conversation.
我的最后一个问题，然后我将停止劫持你的谈话。
How have large language models changed?
大型语言模型发生了怎样的变化？
The questions themselves that you ask on Conversations with Tyler.
你在《与泰勒对话》中提出的问题本身。
Often, many of us love to joke about these hyper-specific questions that you ask people that, frankly, often could be better answered through AI, through GPT-5 than people themselves.
通常，我们中的许多人喜欢拿这些超具体的问题开玩笑，坦率地说，通过 AI、通过 GPT-5 往往可以比人们自己更好地回答这些问题。
How do you think about asking some of these questions after large language models are arguably better at providing some of these answers?
在大型语言模型可以更好地提供其中一些答案之后，您如何看待提出其中一些问题？
I think of a good podcast as it being about the drama of the unfolding of the conversation.
我认为一个好的播客是关于对话展开的戏剧性的。
Again, I recorded this very good episode with Diarmaid MacCulloch, the British historian who’s written on the Reformation, history of Christianity.
我再次与英国历史学家 Diarmaid MacCulloch 一起录制了这段非常精彩的插曲，他撰写了有关宗教改革和基督教历史的著作。
I don’t think the audience, or even me for that matter, cares primarily if the GPT-5 answer is better.
我认为观众，甚至我，都不会主要关心 GPT-5 的答案是否更好。
What they want to learn is his way of thinking about things.
他们想学习的是他思考事物的方式。
They will get something out of that.
他们会从中得到一些东西。
It will be real.
这将是真实的。
It will be vivid.
将会很生动。
They might end up disagreeing with his very liberal Anglican perspectives on history, but they’ll have figured out what that perspective is.
他们最终可能会不同意他非常自由的英国圣公会历史观点，但他们会弄清楚这个观点是什么。
You don’t get that from GPT-5.
你无法从 GPT-5 中得到这一点。
You get the GPT-5 perspective, which I find fascinating too, but it doesn’t render irrelevant figuring out how Dermot is going to answer the question.
你会得到 GPT-5 的视角，我也觉得这很有趣，但这并不意味着弄清楚德莫特将如何回答这个问题变得无关紧要。
In that sense, it hasn’t changed it that much.
从这个意义上说，它并没有改变那么多。
I don’t get many questions for podcast guests from LLMs.
我没有收到法学硕士向播客嘉宾提出的很多问题。
In some episodes, there’ll be three or four LLM-generated questions, but it’s not mostly that.
在某些剧集中，会有三到四个法学硕士生成的问题，但并非主要如此。
It’s mostly things from my own head, or maybe Marginal Revolution readers will suggest something.
这主要是我自己的想法，或者《边际革命》的读者可能会提出一些建议。
In the case of you, I know the person, and we’ve had previous conversations.
就你而言，我认识这个人，而且我们之前已经交谈过。
To ask you about Italian opera or Stendhal, it’s like, “Well, of course, I’m going to ask Dan about that.”
要问你关于意大利歌剧或司汤达的事，就像是，“好吧，当然，我要问丹关于这个的问题。”
I know that will be interesting.
我知道那会很有趣。
That’s easy.
这很容易。
It’s way less prep.
准备工作要少得多。
I think podcasts will not become less valuable, because of very good AI.
我认为播客的价值不会因为非常好的人工智能而变得不那么有价值。
Blogging might be.
博客可能是。
Well, here’s a person’s way of viewing the world.
嗯，这是一个人看待世界的方式。
Just marketing analysis or facts, I think, will be less salient, and already is.
我认为，仅仅营销分析或事实将不再那么重要，而且已经如此。
Final question.
最后一个问题。
What flavor of drama was our conversation today?
我们今天的谈话有什么戏剧性？
Tragedy, comic opera, what was it?
悲剧、喜剧，是什么？
I don’t know that it was any of those.
我不知道是其中任何一个。
I think it had two parts.
我认为它有两个部分。
The first part was about your book.
第一部分是关于你的书。
It was a bit of debate back and forth.
这是一个来回的争论。
People get a sense of where we differ, that I like the suburbs more than you do.
人们能感觉到我们的不同之处，我比你更喜欢郊区。
I like the American Southeast more than you do.
我比你更喜欢美国东南部。
I think the American media overrates the importance of the dysfunctionality of New York and San Francisco.
我认为美国媒体高估了纽约和旧金山功能失调的重要性。
We went through that in a way I think both of us found a bit predictable, but was necessary to do.
我们以一种我认为我们都觉得有点可预测的方式经历了这一切，但这是必要的。
Then, we had all these other parts.
然后，我们有了所有其他部分。
I haven’t heard most of your other 50 interviews, but probably you didn’t speak very much about Yunnan, didn’t speak about Italian opera, didn’t speak about volume one of The Three-Body Problem.
你其他50个采访我大部分都没听过，但可能你没有讲太多关于云南的事，没有讲意大利歌剧，没有讲《三体》第一卷。
I knew that would be, for me, the better part of the podcast, but the readers need both.
我知道对我来说，这将是播客中更好的部分，但读者两者都需要。
We ran over time.
我们跑过了时间。
That was on purpose.
那是故意的。
It was a switching thing.
这是一个转换的事情。
Not a single mood.
没有一丝心情。
I don’t know what opera you would compare that to.
我不知道你会把它比作哪部歌剧。
Maybe it’s Fidelio in a way, right?
也许在某种程度上它就是《费德里奥》，对吧？
I’ll take Fidelio.
我会带费德里奥。
When you have these excellent recordings like Christa Ludwig singing at the very end, it is the very end of Fidelio always moves me.
当你有像 Christa Ludwig 在最后演唱这样出色的录音时，《费德里奥》的结尾总是让我感动。
Dan, thank you very much.
丹，非常感谢你。
Tyler, thank you very much.
泰勒，非常感谢你。