Conversations with Tyler 2025 Retrospective (Ep. 266)
Hello, Jeff.
你好，杰夫。
Happy to be here.
很高兴来到这里。
Tyler, at the end of last year’s retrospective, you said, “Let’s do more episodes.”
泰勒，在去年的回顾结束时，你说，“让我们多拍几集吧。”
That’s right, and we did.
没错，我们做到了。
We did.
我们做到了。
This episode, the last of the year, is the 36th episode that we’ve released this year.
这一集是今年的最后一集，是我们今年发布的第 36 集。
That’s the most we’ve ever done.
这是我们做过的最多的事情。
In fact, our official release schedule is two episodes per month, but this year we’ve managed to make it three episodes per month de facto.
事实上，我们的官方发布时间表是每月两集，但今年我们实际上已经做到了每月三集。
We have Marginal Revolution Podcast.
我们有边际革命播客。
You’ve recorded six episodes of the Marginal Revolution Podcast for season two.
您已经录制了《边缘革命》播客第二季的六集。
Of course, you’re doing podcasts all the time generally.
当然，您通常一直在做播客。
That’s a lot.
就这么多了。
It is.
这是。
That’s good.
那挺好的。
I promised you we would do more.
我向你保证我们会做得更多。
You delivered.
你交付了。
Looking at the list, though, did that come at the cost of quality, or do you feel good about this roster of guests?
不过，看看名单，这是否是以质量为代价的，或者您对这份嘉宾名单感觉良好吗？
I thought it was a very good year.
我认为这是非常好的一年。
I won’t say who, but out of the 36, whatever, I thought maybe three were not great, and the others were good through excellent.
我不会说是谁，但在这 36 个人中，无论如何，我认为也许有 3 人不是很好，其他人都很好。
I was quite happy.
我很高兴。
I don’t feel I get the credit for that.
我觉得我没有因此获得荣誉。
It’s the guests, but nonetheless, it’s a pretty good record.
是客人，但尽管如此，这是一个相当不错的记录。
Yes.
是的。
Now let’s go in and see how the audience agreed with you.
现在让我们进去看看观众对你的看法如何。
Now, we’re going to check in.
现在，我们要检查一下。
To get a peek behind the scenes, we’re recording this a little bit earlier in the year than we usually do.
为了一睹幕后花絮，我们比平时更早地记录了这一点。
I’m going to ask for your predictions for most popular episodes, but then we’re going to check back in in a little closer to the end of the year, and we’ll actually review top episodes.
我将询问您对最受欢迎剧集的预测，但随后我们将在接近年底的时候回来查看，我们将实际回顾热门剧集。
Wait till the end of the episode for top episodes.
等到剧集结束即可观看热门剧集。
Right now, sitting where we are now, what do you think will be the most popular episodes of the year?
现在，您认为今年最受欢迎的剧集是什么？
I’ll predict a clear winner will be Sam Altman, which was released the morning we’re recording this by a considerable margin.
我预测萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）将是明显的赢家，它是在我们录制这一消息的那天早上以相当大的优势发布的。
Of course, we’ll see.
当然，我们会看到的。
Yes, I think that’s a safe bet, and we do know what the releases will be through the end of the year.
是的，我认为这是一个安全的选择，而且我们确实知道今年年底会发布什么版本。
Now, we’ll review most popular episodes later when we actually have the numbers, but in terms of your perception of underrated episodes, we don’t know what’s popular yet.
现在，当我们真正掌握数据后，我们将回顾最受欢迎的剧集，但就您对被低估的剧集的看法而言，我们还不知道哪些剧集最受欢迎。
Underrated is just your taste and my taste.
被低估的只是你的品味和我的品味。
What do you think was underrated this year?
您认为今年哪些因素被低估了？
Jonny Steinberg was one of my favorite episodes.
乔尼·斯坦伯格是我最喜欢的剧集之一。
I thought all of his answers were deep and thoughtful, and it was good to focus on South Africa.
我认为他所有的答案都是深刻而深思熟虑的，关注南非是件好事。
My guess would be it did normal traffic, but nothing above that.
我的猜测是它的流量正常，但没有高于此。
Yes.
是的。
Any other picks?
还有其他选择吗？
My guess is Ian Leslie on John and Paul in the Beatles did somewhat above average.
我的猜测是，伊恩·莱斯利 (Ian Leslie) 对披头士乐队中约翰和保罗 (John and Paul) 的表演略高于平均水平。
That’s truly a popular culture topic, but that was very good.
这确实是一个流行文化话题，但非常好。
Any Austin, the YouTuber, you referred him to me.
任何奥斯汀，YouTuber，你都把他推荐给了我。
One of my three or four favorite episodes for the year.
我今年最喜欢的三四集之一。
I have no idea how that one did, but I thought it was excellent and magical at times.
我不知道那是怎么做到的，但我有时认为它非常棒而且神奇。
Austin did well.
奥斯汀做得很好。
Still one of my underrated picks for the year.
仍然是我今年被低估的选择之一。
That actually was born out of last year’s retrospective.
这实际上是从去年的回顾展中诞生的。
A listener asked a question about video games.
一位听众问了一个有关视频游戏的问题。
I referenced one of Austin’s videos.
我引用了奥斯汀的一个视频。
He got in touch.
他联系上了。
People sent him the clip.
人们向他发送了剪辑。
He’s helped us on our new YouTube channel because, as it turns out, a popular YouTuber appearing on your YouTube channel is very good for you.
他在我们的新 YouTube 频道上为我们提供了帮助，因为事实证明，一位受欢迎的 YouTuber 出现在您的 YouTube 频道上对您非常有好处。
That’s great.
那太棒了。
I love that conversation because I felt like that could have gone south very easily, but Austin, I think, was up for the challenge.
我喜欢那次谈话，因为我觉得那很容易就失败了，但我认为奥斯汀已经做好了迎接挑战的准备。
It looked like you two had a lot of fun during that conversation.
看来你们两个在那次谈话中玩得很开心。
I don’t think it could have gone south easily.
我认为它不会轻易向南发展。
I think it was preordained that it was going to be very good.
我认为这是注定的，它会非常好。
He’s willing to talk, and he’s smart, and he’ll say what he thinks.
他很愿意说话，而且很聪明，他会说出自己的想法。
It just is not going to go wrong.
它只是不会出错。
David Robertson, the classical music conductor, probably way less popular than average.
古典音乐指挥家大卫·罗伯逊（David Robertson）的受欢迎程度可能远低于平均水平。
He was very good, and I quite liked the episode.
他非常好，我非常喜欢这一集。
I think this year, looking over the episodes, one of the observations I would make is that the single-subject episodes were actually some of the best this year.
我认为今年，回顾这些剧集，我的观察结果之一是单主题剧集实际上是今年最好的剧集之一。
If you think of David Commins on Saudi Arabia, Lopez on Buddhism, Selgin on the Great Depression, Castor on Richard II, Henry IV, Ted Schwartz on neurosurgery, Ogilvy on pandemic response, the ones where there’s more of a singular focus, where it’s just, let’s pick this person’s brain about the thing they know well, those were great episodes.
如果你想到大卫·康明斯关于沙特阿拉伯、洛佩兹关于佛教、塞尔金关于大萧条、卡斯特关于理查德二世、亨利四世、泰德·施瓦茨关于神经外科、奥格维关于流行病应对等，那些有更多单一焦点的人，让我们就他们熟悉的事情挑选这个人的大脑，那些都是伟大的剧集。
If you’re looking for a heuristic this year, that’s not a bad one, is just go for the episodes that are just singularly focused on that person’s expertise.
如果你今年正在寻找一种启发式方法，那么这并不是一个坏方法，只需选择专门关注该人的专业知识的剧集即可。
Otherwise, Dan Wang, the back and forth there, a little bit of sparring.
不然的话，丹王那边，来来回回，就有点陪练了。
In the MR comments, people were eager to hear more pushback on his thesis, and I think you delivered on that desire.
在 MR 的评论中，人们渴望听到对他的论文的更多反驳，我认为你实现了这个愿望。
As you’ll hear, Dan and I went on for one hour, 40 minutes, which was my testament to the fact that I thought it was consistently interesting.
正如你所听到的，丹和我持续了 1 小时 40 分钟，这证明了我认为这始终很有趣。
Absolutely.
绝对地。
The Donald Lopez one on Buddhism, not released as we’re speaking, but one of my favorites of the year, he just had excellent answers to all questions and spit it out immediately.
唐纳德·洛佩兹（Donald Lopez）关于佛教的一篇文章在我们发言时尚未发布，但却是我今年最喜欢的文章之一，他对所有问题都给出了出色的答案，并立即吐出来。
No BS.
没有BS。
Yes.
是的。
The ones where it’s a single topic, I learned more from the prep because I know what to prepare.
对于单一主题的主题，我从准备中学到了更多，因为我知道要准备什么。
The Steven Pinker episode was good, but I already know Steven Pinker.
史蒂文·平克那一集很好，但我已经认识史蒂文·平克了。
We already recorded with him.
我们已经和他一起录音了。
I didn’t really have to prepare Steven Pinker.
我真的不需要为史蒂文·平克做好准备。
I can just show up and be myself, and it’s pretty good, right?
我可以出现并做我自己，这很好，对吧？
Yes.
是的。
That may be what I’m responding to in listening to it as well, is you’re having that person on because that topic interests you, and that person is one of the best on that topic.
这可能也是我在听时的回应，你邀请那个人是因为你对这个话题感兴趣，而那个人是这个话题上最好的人之一。
Hearing your enthusiasm, just hearing what a very smart, curious person wants to know about that topic is notable of itself, and just listening to what kinds of questions is Tyler asking about Buddhism or Saudi Arabia.
听到你的热情，只是听到一个非常聪明、好奇的人想了解这个话题的什么，这本身就是值得注意的，只是听泰勒问了关于佛教或沙特阿拉伯的什么样的问题。
Maybe we’ll do more of those, but they are much harder preps.
也许我们会做更多这样的事情，但它们的准备工作要困难得多。
The Buddhism prep, that was a good four or five months for me.
佛教的准备，对我来说是美好的四五个月。
I’m very glad I did it, but I couldn’t do that for every episode.
我很高兴我做到了，但我无法每一集都做到这一点。
What do you take away?
你拿走什么？
You did all the prep.
你已经做好了所有的准备工作。
You’ve done a lot of reading and background research.
您已经进行了大量的阅读和背景研究。
You talk to one of the best thinkers on it.
您与这方面最优秀的思想家之一进行了交谈。
After that, what do you walk away remembering or what sticks with you?
在那之后，你会想起什么，或者什么让你难以忘怀？
How violent Buddhism is, that Buddhism is shrinking somewhat, that it’s not what most people think, that what I would call American Buddhism, while itself interesting and to many people appealing, is not actual Buddhism.
佛教是多么暴力，佛教在某种程度上萎缩，它不是大多数人想象的那样，我所说的美国佛教，虽然本身很有趣，对很多人来说很有吸引力，但不是真正的佛教。
I had some knowledge of those beforehand, but now much more detailed, much more vivid.
我以前对这些有一些了解，但现在更详细、更生动。
Another one, my last pick for underrated, I know I’ve given a lot this year, but John Amaechi.
另一个，我最后一个被低估的人选，我知道今年我付出了很多，但是约翰·阿马奇。
I really enjoyed that one.
我真的很喜欢那个。
I think some people thought, “Well, it’s not deep enough.
我想有些人会想：“好吧，这还不够深。
He’s giving maybe Ted-like answers on leadership.
关于领导力，他可能给出了类似泰德的答案。
It’s something all smart people believe, but it’s not rigorous enough,” or something like that.
这是所有聪明人都相信的事情，但不够严格，”或者类似的话。
I enjoyed his stories on life in the NBA.
我很喜欢他讲述 NBA 生活的故事。
He also, as you noted, has one of the best podcast voices of any guest we’ve had on the show.
正如您所指出的，他也是我们节目中所有嘉宾中最好的播客声音之一。
Just hearing his perspective on things, he’s clearly a very smart guy, was good on his feet, I thought.
我想，只要听听他对事物的看法，他显然是一个非常聪明的人，行动力也很好。
If you skipped that one because either you didn’t know anything about him or you didn’t care about the NBA, or maybe you think “leadership” is bunk, a lot of that described my priors going into it, and I still loved it.
如果你因为对他一无所知，或者你不关心 NBA，或者你认为“领导力”是废话而跳过了这一节，那么很多内容都描述了我之前的经历，但我仍然喜欢它。
It’s one where you need to listen rather than read the transcript.
这是你需要倾听而不是阅读文字记录的地方。
Another very good one, it’s not out yet, but Gaurav Kapadia.
另一部非常好的作品，还没出来，是 Gaurav Kapadia。
Most people haven’t heard of him.
大多数人没有听说过他。
I think I said once, “Gaurav, you’re either the most underrated unknown person or the most unknown underrated person.” I’m not sure which, or maybe both.
我想我曾经说过，“高拉夫，你要么是最被低估的无名之人，要么是最不被低估的无名之人。”我不确定是哪一个，或者两者都有。
He’s an investor in New York City, and that was excellent.
他是纽约市的投资者，这非常棒。
The last thing I’ll say on this is, nothing against people earlier in the year, but the last part of the year, the releases here, a lot of hits.
我要说的最后一件事是，并不是针对今年早些时候的人们，而是今年的最后一部分，这里发布了很多点击率。
Cass Sunstein, very good.
卡斯桑斯坦，非常好。
He was really up for it and felt challenged and decided he was going to do his very best, and he did.
他真的做好了准备，感受到了挑战，并决定尽力而为，他做到了。
I think people might neglect that one because there’s a lot of Cass out there, but they shouldn’t.
我认为人们可能会忽视这一点，因为那里有很多卡斯，但他们不应该。
It’s like Cass at his very peak, and it’s a great episode.
这就像卡斯的巅峰时期一样，这是一个很棒的剧集。
He and I also went well over the hour, which again is a testament.
他和我在一个小时内也进展顺利，这再次证明了这一点。
Yes.
是的。
That fits my single-subject thesis, too.
这也符合我的单科论文。
Cass on liberalism, I didn’t expect that one to be as good as it was.
卡斯论自由主义，我没想到它会这么好。
I was engrossed and hooked by it.
我全神贯注并被它迷住了。
As someone who reads a lot of Cass, he’s obviously been on the show before.
作为一个读过很多卡斯作品的人，他显然以前就参加过这个节目。
At Mercatus, we’re steeped in classical liberalism all the time, but hearing his perspective, I felt like I got a lot new out of that episode.
在 Mercatus，我们一直沉浸在古典自由主义之中，但听到他的观点，我觉得我从那一集里得到了很多新东西。
It was important that we went up to Cambridge, Mass., to do it with him.
重要的是我们去马萨诸塞州剑桥和他一起做这件事。
I think it was the same evening, but later that trip, I got to visit their house, which is a famous historic house.
我想是在同一个晚上，但那次旅行后来，我参观了他们的房子，那是一栋著名的历史建筑。
I don’t want to give away where it is, but that was a real treat for me to see where they live.
我不想透露它在哪里，但看到他们住在哪里对我来说真是一种享受。
Revolutionary War house, I’ll just say.
革命战争时期的房子，我只想说。
Very nice.
很不错。
That was a lot.
那是很多。
I don’t want to damn the others by faint praise, but I do think this year was a really good year.
我不想通过微弱的赞扬来谴责其他人，但我确实认为今年是非常好的一年。
Also, I will say, I think almost all of the ones we mentioned were not top five, top 10 episodes by listener popularity.
另外，我要说的是，我认为我们提到的几乎所有剧集都不是听众受欢迎程度排名前五、前十的剧集。
What predicts being top five or top 10?
什么预测进入前五名或前十名？
We’ll see when the final tally is made, but this year, it’s more about name recognition coming in.
我们将拭目以待最终统计结果，但今年，更多的是关于知名度。
We don’t have the eclectic top five list this year.
今年我们没有折衷的前五名名单。
When you get into the top 10, it’s a little more eclectic, but it’s the big names.
当你进入前十名时，你会发现它有点不拘一格，但都是大牌。
It’s going to be Sam Altman.
这将是萨姆·奥尔特曼。
It’s going to be the big names.
这将是大牌人物。
All right.
好的。
Even who are the big names is a little hard to say.
就连谁是大牌也有点难说。
Ezra Klein, big name, right?
埃兹拉·克莱因（Ezra Klein），大名鼎鼎，对吧？
Sure.
当然。
I’m not sure who are all the big names.
我不确定谁是大人物。
Nate Silver, big name, right?
内特·西尔弗，大名鼎鼎，对吧？
That was a good episode.
那是一个很好的插曲。
Ezra is good.
以斯拉很好。
I don’t think there’s a negative correlation.
我不认为存在负相关关系。
I think some of the big names have been really good conversations as well, but we’re not in the Dwarkesh Patel territory of he will say that his most popular episodes tend to be the more obscure.
我认为一些大牌人物也确实是很好的对话，但我们不在德瓦克什·帕特尔（Dwarkesh Patel）的领域，他会说他最受欢迎的剧集往往更加晦涩难懂。
For whatever reason, at least this year, that’s not our experience.
不管出于什么原因，至少今年，这不是我们的经历。
On AI’s impact on the show
关于人工智能对节目的影响
Okay.
好的。
Let’s move on to listener questions.
让我们继续讨论听众的问题。
First one from Patrick McKenzie, past guest on the show, “What are the biggest surprises in AI this year and the biggest changes to the Tyler Cowen et al production function as a result of AI this year?”
第一个来自节目前嘉宾帕特里克·麦肯齐 (Patrick McKenzie)，“今年人工智能最大的惊喜是什么？今年人工智能给泰勒·考恩 (Tyler Cowen) 等人的生产功能带来的最大变化是什么？”
Maybe the biggest surprise in AI was how good the O3 model was, which I called AGI at the time.
也许人工智能领域最大的惊喜就是O3模型有多好，我当时称之为AGI。
Maybe tongue-in-cheek, but I also meant it, that it can’t do every job.
也许是开玩笑，但我也是认真的，它不能完成所有工作。
The old definition of AGI, that it’s just as good as human experts, is largely true.
AGI 的旧定义是与人类专家一样好，这在很大程度上是正确的。
I don’t know if it was a shock.
我不知道是否感到震惊。
By that point, you were more or less expecting it.
到那时，你或多或少已经期待它了。
Had it come one year later, that would not have been a surprise either.
如果一年后出现这种情况，也不会让人感到意外。
Just how much better reasoning models got from, say, O1, to me, was somewhat of a surprise.
对我来说，O1 的推理模型得到了如此多的改进，这有点令人惊讶。
Otherwise, mostly, the lack of surprises was the surprise.
除此之外，大多数情况下，缺乏惊喜就是惊喜。
Things just kept on going.
事情就这么继续下去。
There’s been great progress.
已经有了很大的进步。
They used to think there were two R’s in strawberry, and now they know there’s three.
他们曾经认为草莓中有两个 R，现在他们知道有三个。
In their spare time, they win gold medals at math Olympiads.
在业余时间，他们在数学奥林匹克竞赛中赢得金牌。
To broaden the question to the production of the show itself, I don’t think AI has been transformational this year.
将问题扩大到节目本身的制作，我认为人工智能今年并没有带来变革。
I assume that’s what Patrick was referring to when he asked about “et al.”
我想这就是帕特里克在询问“等人”时所指的内容。
No, it’s helped us do many more episodes.
不，它帮助我们制作了更多剧集。
If you take Donald Lopez, the Buddhism scholar, maybe I read 30 books on Buddhism, which is a fair number, but I had so many GPT queries on Buddhism.
如果你以佛教学者唐纳德·洛佩兹（Donald Lopez）为例，也许我读了30本佛教书籍，这是一个相当大的数字，但我有很多关于佛教的GPT查询。
I saved a few hundred dollars and a lot of time.
我节省了几百美元和很多时间。
I could just get right to the point and learn what I wanted to know.
我可以开门见山地了解我想知道的事情。
We could not have done as many episodes as we did had it not been for Large Language Models.
如果没有大型语言模型，我们不可能制作这么多的剧集。
It did change the production function.
它确实改变了生产函数。
Things in terms of editing and producing the show beyond the interview and the prep, there have been marginal improvements.
除了采访和准备之外，节目的编辑和制作方面也有了一些微小的改进。
There are things that make editing a little easier, these machine learning algorithms that allow you to do a pass of the episode and get rid of ums and ahs and things like that.
有些东西可以让编辑变得更容易一些，这些机器学习算法可以让你通过剧集并摆脱嗯和啊之类的东西。
Those have been around for a while.
这些已经存在了一段时间了。
They’re getting better.
他们正在变得更好。
It certainly helps.
这当然有帮助。
I will say that it can definitely help brainstorm and find new guests and people who would be good for specific things, like who would be good for a live show.
我想说，这绝对可以帮助集思广益，找到新的嘉宾和适合特定事物的人，比如适合现场表演的人。
There is some prompting techniques that you have to use there because it will tend to regurgitate very well-known names.
您必须在那里使用一些提示技巧，因为它往往会重复非常知名的名字。
Who’s it saying we should do?
谁说我们应该做什么？
Do you remember?
你是否记得？
I suppose to its credit, it depends on how you look at it, but it tends to suggest people who have been on the show.
我认为值得赞扬的是，这取决于你如何看待它，但它往往会建议那些参加过该节目的人。
The other thing is it will go for names that aren’t necessarily bad, but aren’t exactly what we’re looking for or perhaps feasible.
另一件事是，它会选择不一定不好的名字，但不完全是我们正在寻找的或可能不可行的名字。
It’ll say, “Oh, you should do Oprah Winfrey,” or something like that.
它会说，“哦，你应该演奥普拉·温弗瑞”，或者类似的话。
We’re always looking for this, to go back to the Dwarkesh point, if you’re looking for live events, you’re looking for someone who can draw a crowd but who isn’t just completely overexposed as well and will say nothing.
我们一直在寻找这一点，回到 Dwarkesh 点，如果你正在寻找现场活动，你正在寻找一个能够吸引人群但又不会完全过度曝光并且什么也不说的人。
We would not say no to Oprah, right?
我们不会拒绝奥普拉，对吗？
We would not say no to Oprah.
我们不会对奥普拉说不。
On what happened with the Magnus episode
关于马格努斯事件发生的事情
Another listener question that somewhat related to that, because last year we talked about Magnus and getting Magnus on.
另一个听众的问题与此有些相关，因为去年我们谈论了马格努斯并让马格努斯上场。
A listener asked, “What’s going on with the Magnus episode?” Can you give us the story there?
一位听众问：“马格努斯那一集是怎么回事？”你能给我们讲一下那里的故事吗？
I had a very good dinner with Magnus.
我和马格努斯吃了一顿非常丰盛的晚餐。
That was great.
那很棒。
He said he wanted to do it.
他说他想做。
His wife had a baby with, I would call, imperfect timing.
他的妻子生下了孩子，我认为，生孩子的时机并不完美。
I’m not saying it’s imperfect for them and the baby, but imperfect for us.
我并不是说这对他们和婴儿来说不完美，而是对我们来说不完美。
There’s a good chance it will still happen.
它很有可能仍然会发生。
I’m going to just wait till I feel they’re a bit settled with that.
我会等到我觉得他们对此已经有点满意为止。
I don’t know how long that should be, and we’ll try again.
我不知道需要多长时间，我们会再试一次。
I give it 50/50.
我给它50/50。
Okay.
好的。
Yes, we did get very close to the Magnus CWT.
是的，我们确实非常接近 Magnus CWT。
You put out the MR post of, “What should I ask Magnus?”
你发布了 MR 帖子，“我应该问马格努斯什么？”
I’m sure the episode will be great having now met him.
我确信现在见到他之后这一集会很棒。
Who are the other top chess players or just chess players that you would like to have on?
您想与谁较量的其他顶级棋手或只是棋手？
Caruana is very well-spoken and very thoughtful and philosophical.
卡鲁阿纳（Caruana）非常善于言谈，而且非常有思想和哲学。
I think at some point we can get him.
我想在某个时候我们可以得到他。
Some of them are, to me, just annoying.
对我来说，其中一些很烦人。
I would like Caruana.
我想要卡鲁阿纳。
What makes them annoying?
是什么让他们烦人？
Their voices, their personalities, their narrowness.
他们的声音、他们的个性、他们的狭隘。
Not at all true of Magnus or Caruana.
对于马格努斯或卡鲁阿纳来说，情况并非如此。
Magnus was very impressive with how many different topics he can speak well about off the top of his head.
马格努斯令人印象深刻，他可以在脑海中畅所欲言地谈论许多不同的话题。
Caruana is himself a first-rate podcaster.
卡鲁阿纳本人就是一位一流的播客。
Vishy Anand was wonderful.
维希·阿南德很棒。
We’ve had Kasparov, of course, also.
当然，我们也有卡斯帕罗夫。
I’m not sure the list runs that much longer.
我不确定这个列表还能持续多久。
You wouldn’t say no to Gukesh because he’s world champion, but I’m not sure how good he would be.
你不会因为古克什是世界冠军而拒绝他，但我不确定他会有多好。
He might be very good, but he is 19 and not that experienced in other things, one would presume.
他可能很优秀，但他才 19 岁，在其他事情上没有那么丰富的经验，人们会认为。
All right.
好的。
Next question from Sean Young, friend of the show: “Who’s the next guest you’d be open to flipping the script with and have them ask you the questions?” We did one with Patrick Collison many years ago where he interviewed you.
该节目的朋友肖恩·杨提出的下一个问题是：“下一位你愿意翻转剧本并让他们问你问题的嘉宾是谁？”很多年前，我们与帕特里克·科里森（Patrick Collison）做过一次采访，他采访了你。
Anyone who I think would be good at that.
我认为任何人都擅长于此。
Many guests.
很多客人。
Who has an interest in doing it, or maybe they don’t want to be interrogated themselves.
谁有兴趣这样做，或者也许他们不想自己被审问。
That’s okay.
没关系。
Yes, I’m very open to that.
是的，我对此非常开放。
Ideas are welcome.
欢迎提出想法。
Okay.
好的。
Send in your pitches if you want to interview Tyler.
如果您想采访泰勒，请将您的想法发送给我们。
All right.
好的。
On Tyler #1 hotel ammenity
泰勒上排名第一的酒店设施
Next question from Pete: “How does Tyler pick hotels?
皮特的下一个问题是：“泰勒如何选择酒店？
He’s written a lot about how he picks restaurants, but not how he picks hotels.”
他写了很多关于他如何选择餐厅的文章，但没有写他如何选择酒店。”
Most of my travel is connected to events, and the hotel is chosen for me.
我的大部分旅行都与活动有关，酒店是为我选择的。
Not a complaint.
不是抱怨。
They’re typically better than what I would choose for myself.
它们通常比我为自己选择的更好。
What I actually care about is, is there a swimming pool?
我其实关心的是，有游泳池吗？
Are there enough outlets in the room that I can plug everything in?
房间里是否有足够的插座可供我插入所有东西？
At this point, that’s almost always a yes, but even five years ago, there were no guarantees there.
在这一点上，这几乎总是肯定的，但即使在五年前，也没有任何保证。
Is the pillow sufficiently flat?
枕头足够平吗？
Most of the rest, I don’t care about.
其余的大部分，我不关心。
Can I figure out how to operate the shower and turn off all the lights?
我能弄清楚如何操作淋浴并关闭所有灯吗？
That’s getting harder, not easier.
这变得越来越难，而不是更容易。
Are you able to assess that pre-booking, or just by the chain, you go by brand?
您是否能够评估预订情况，或者仅通过连锁店、品牌进行评估？
I think if I wrote a detailed prompt for GPT, in fact, it could.
我想如果我写一个关于GPT的详细提示的话，其实是可以的。
I just haven’t gotten to that yet.
我只是还没有做到这一点。
The hotels I pick for myself are not fancy enough that I have trouble operating the shower and turning off the lights.
我为自己挑选的酒店不够豪华，以至于我很难操作淋浴和关灯。
It’s the ones that are chosen for me, and then I’m just stuck.
这些是为我选择的，然后我就被困住了。
Even though they’ll be incredible along other dimensions.
尽管它们在其他维度上会令人难以置信。
The pool is news to me.
游泳池对我来说是新闻。
Is that just you do a daily constitutional, you go for your ablutions in the pool?
难道你只是每天做一次宪法，去游泳池里洗个澡吗？
What’s that about?
那是关于什么的？
I’ll swim every day if I’m away from home, if I have a pool.
如果我不在家，如果我有游泳池，我会每天游泳。
Yes, absolutely.
是的，绝对是。
That’s your gym, in essence, is not the gym, but the pool.
那是你的健身房，本质上，不是健身房，而是游泳池。
I will go to the gym if there’s no pool, but the pool to me is more than 5X more valuable than the gym.
如果没有游泳池我会去健身房，但游泳池对我来说比健身房更有价值5倍以上。
The gym is boring, the pool I enjoy.
健身房很无聊，游泳池我很喜欢。
On Tyler’s growing influence and thoughts on tariffs
关于泰勒对关税日益增长的影响力和想法
All right.
好吧。
Next question from Rodney Tickle: “As he’s grown in influence, has he had to become less honest or more cautious?”
罗德尼·蒂克尔的下一个问题是：“随着他的影响力不断增强，他是否必须变得不那么诚实或更谨慎？”
Well, you all listen to the podcast and you see 10 years of data, so maybe I should ask all of you that.
好吧，你们都听播客，看到 10 年的数据，所以也许我应该问你们所有人这个问题。
To me, it feels the same, but I do observe in others when they fool themselves, they don’t always know.
对我来说，感觉是一样的，但我确实观察到其他人在欺骗自己时，他们并不总是知道。
When I was recording with Alison Gopnik, I accused her of laboring under delusions.
当我和艾莉森·戈普尼克一起录音时，我指责她在妄想中挣扎。
I actually don’t think I would have said that 10 years ago.
事实上，我认为十年前我不会这么说。
Maybe in some ways, I’m more honest.
也许在某些方面，我更诚实。
I took her to be denying the heritability of IQ, by the way, if you’re wondering about the context.
顺便说一句，如果你想知道背景的话，我认为她否认智商的遗传性。
I got upset.
我很沮丧。
Maybe I shouldn’t have gotten upset, but actually, I feel I should have gotten upset.
也许我不应该生气，但实际上，我觉得我应该生气。
It was something you definitely pressed her on.
这绝对是你向她施加的压力。
As a listener, I did not feel like you got upset, but you definitely pressed her more than you usually do.
作为一名听众，我并不觉得你感到不安，但你确实比平时更加向她施压。
Usually, you move on.
通常，你会继续前进。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
It just seemed so egregiously off to me.
对我来说，这实在是太令人震惊了。
It is her field.
这是她的领域。
If someone else said that, whatever, but it’s the main thing she works on.
如果别人这么说，那也无所谓，但这就是她的主要工作。
Do you feel like you have people around you who can hold your feet to the fire?
你是否觉得你周围有人可以让你的脚踩在火上？
When you say around me, some of my colleagues and immediate family, but I think this is becoming a larger problem overall.
当你说我周围的一些同事和直系亲属时，但我认为这正在成为一个更大的问题。
Because people want something from you?
因为人们想从你这里得到一些东西？
Yes, they want something from you, or they just observe others keeping their distance, and they follow that lead and become more afraid, even if they want nothing from me.
是的，他们想从你这里得到一些东西，或者他们只是看到别人保持距离，他们就会追随这种引导，变得更加害怕，即使他们不想从我这里得到任何东西。
Maybe that’s even more common.
也许这更常见。
All right.
好的。
Next question.
下一个问题。
User Xmas835 on Twitter: “What will cause the US to change course on tariffs?”
Twitter用户Xmas835：“什么会导致美国改变关税方针？”
Well, the Supreme Court started hearing today the Trump case, and by the time you’re all listening, we’ll know the answer.
好吧，最高法院今天开始审理特朗普案，等你们都听完的时候，我们就会知道答案。
In the betting market, I think it’s 87% right now they’ll rule against Trump, and it sounds like they will.
在博彩市场上，我认为现在有 87% 的人会做出对特朗普不利的裁决，而且听起来他们确实会这么做。
I haven’t looked through the materials yet, but that would be my best guess.
我还没有看过这些材料，但这将是我最好的猜测。
Probably, it’ll all be done and over with by the time you’re listening to me.
也许，当你听我说话的时候，一切都已经完成了。
They’re working on plan B’s and C’s as we speak.
正如我们所说，他们正在制定 B 计划和 C 计划。
We don’t know how it will turn out.
我们不知道结果会如何。
Some of those will work.
其中一些会起作用。
Other national security arguments, the tariffs will not disappear.
其他国家安全论点，关税不会消失。
The idea that you can just put a tariff on Canada and chocolate from Madagascar because Trump said so, I do think that’s likely to go away, and soon.
因为特朗普这么说，你就可以对加拿大和马达加斯加的巧克力征收关税，我确实认为这种想法可能很快就会消失。
As I understand it, the crux of the argument from the Trump side is that tariffs are just a form of regulation.
据我了解，特朗普方面争论的核心是关税只是一种监管形式。
It’s not a tax, it’s regulatory policy.
这不是税收，而是监管政策。
Good luck with that.
祝你好运。
There’s a lot of American history suggesting the contrary.
很多美国历史都表明事实恰恰相反。
On AI x-risk discourse
关于人工智能x风险的讨论
All right.
好吧。
Next question from David Golden: “What would allow a more productive dialogue about AI risks?
David Golden 的下一个问题是：“怎样才能就人工智能风险进行更富有成效的对话？
Watching him and people like Zvi talk past each other is depressing.”
看着他和像兹维这样的人互相谈论是令人沮丧的。”
It should be depressing.
应该是郁闷的。
I’ve said for quite a while now that people who are more worried about AI risk than I am should try to go through peer review and develop a literature.
我已经说过很长一段时间了，那些比我更担心人工智能风险的人应该尝试进行同行评审并撰写文献。
The whole point of having a literature is you see what are the critical questions or what are not the critical questions.
拥有文献的全部意义在于你可以看到什么是关键问题或什么不是关键问题。
As far as I can tell, they still refuse to do this, even after what is now a fair number of years.
据我所知，即使已经过去了很多年，他们仍然拒绝这样做。
Other than repeating the point that they ought to do that, I don’t know what else to say.
除了重复他们应该这样做的观点之外，我不知道还能说什么。
Market prices are not predicting what they claim either.
市场价格也没有预测他们所声称的内容。
If peer review is not with you and market prices are not with you, even the super forecasters are, for the most part, not with them.
如果同行评审不支持你，市场价格也不支持你，那么即使是超级预测者，在很大程度上也不支持他们。
I would just say, burden of proof is on them, and they ought to get their act together.
我只想说，举证责任在他们身上，他们应该共同行动。
Why do they have to do it in this traditional academic way where they have to become part of the literature and go through peer review?
为什么他们必须以这种传统的学术方式来做，他们必须成为文献的一部分并经过同行评审？
Since it’s fast-paced and so much of this discourse is happening online through essays and social media, why put that burden on them that they have to go into this more traditional form?
既然它的节奏很快，而且很多讨论都是通过论文和社交媒体在网上发生的，为什么要把负担加在他们身上，让他们必须采用这种更传统的形式呢？
Well, they should do both.
嗯，他们应该两者都做。
They’ve already done the other, right?
他们已经完成了另一个，对吗？
Peer review is super useful.
同行评审非常有用。
You have things where there’s a deliberate exchange of, “Does this argument succeed or not?” where people scrutinize it very carefully, not just some weird blog commentators.
你会在一些事情上故意交换“这个论点成功与否？”人们非常仔细地审视它，而不仅仅是一些奇怪的博客评论者。
It works for every other science.
它适用于所有其他科学。
It’s worked for climate change.
它对气候变化有效。
What we’ve learned from climate change is that the arguments for — to call it warming is an oversimplification — but let’s say warming for now, they really do hold up with a lot of different sources of support, but the claim that the costs of global warming are going up, that’s a much weaker claim.
我们从气候变化中学到的是，关于“将其称为变暖是一种过于简单化”的论点，但就目前而言，它们确实得到了许多不同来源的支持，但关于全球变暖的成本正在上升的说法，这是一个弱得多的说法。
By running everything through the ringer, while those will all still continue to be revised, that’s what we’ve learned.
通过将所有内容都通过铃声运行，虽然这些内容仍将继续修改，但这就是我们所学到的。
It’s super valuable.
非常有价值。
We would not have gotten there with weird blog commentators.
如果有奇怪的博客评论员，我们就不会到达那里。
We needed refereeing and peer review, and it does take longer.
我们需要裁判和同行评审，而且确实需要更长的时间。
Again, these arguments have been around a while.
同样，这些争论已经存在了一段时间。
I think Eliezer, I’m guessing now, boy, it’s 15 to 20 years, he’s been saying this.
我想以利以谢，我现在猜，男孩，已经 15 到 20 年了，他一直在这么说。
I’ve even said to some philanthropists, “You should support this as a project.
我什至对一些慈善家说：“你们应该支持这个项目。
It’s not that expensive.” I volunteered to do some refereeing for free.
没那么贵。”我自愿免费做一些裁判。
I’m still waiting for the phone to ring, to use the proverbial metaphor.
用众所周知的比喻来说，我仍在等待电话铃声。
There’s a new AI service that — and I can’t think of the name of it.
有一种新的人工智能服务， —— 但我想不出它的名字。
Refine?
精炼？
Refine, the one that gives peer comments.
Refine，即给出同行评论的那个。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
Obviously, they need to put it in the format of a paper.
显然，他们需要将其以论文的形式呈现。
Not necessarily, but would that be a step in the right direction of at least getting a fine-tuned LLM to give those kinds of referee remarks or feedback?
不一定，但这是否是朝着正确方向迈出的一步，至少让一个经过微调的法学硕士能够提供此类裁判意见或反馈？
I haven’t used Refine yet, but I strongly suspect the answer is yes.
我还没有使用过Refine，但我强烈怀疑答案是肯定的。
If it’s not their product, someone else will do the equivalent soon.
如果这不是他们的产品，其他人很快就会做同样的事情。
You need a research paper in research paper format, I suspect.
我怀疑你需要一篇研究论文格式的研究论文。
You just ask Refine, again, I haven’t used it, “Oh, what do you like or dislike about this blog post?” While interesting, it’s not what I’m asking for.
你只要再问Refine，我没用过，“哦，你喜欢或不喜欢这篇博文的什么？”虽然很有趣，但这不是我想要的。
There’s some truth to Bryan Caplan’s claim, “Don’t trust individual papers, trust literatures.” The spontaneous order sort of wisdom embedded in a literature is just sorely lacking here.
布莱恩·卡普兰（Bryan Caplan）的说法有一定道理：“不要相信个别论文，而要相信文献。”这里非常缺乏嵌入文学中的自发秩序智慧。
You’ve offered to referee and you’ve talked to philanthropists.
你主动提出担任裁判，并与慈善家交谈。
Is it just about somehow encouraging or subsidizing the creation of that literature?
它只是以某种方式鼓励或资助该文学的创作吗？
What is the binding constraint there?
那里的绑定约束是什么？
I genuinely don’t understand it.
我真的不明白。
I suspect some of the key figures just don’t want that kind of scrutiny.
我怀疑一些关键人物只是不想接受这种审查。
I’m not sure the peer reviewing would be that kind to their ideas.
我不确定同行评审是否会对他们的想法产生同样的影响。
Now, they are sincere in their belief, so on one level, they think it will come out fine.
现在，他们对自己的信念是真诚的，所以在某种程度上，他们认为结果会很好。
At some other level, I think their lack of trust in the method is reflecting a kind of insecurity about the arguments.
在另一个层面上，我认为他们对方法缺乏信任反映了对论点的一种不安全感。
Yes.
是的。
All right.
好的。
Next question from Virat: “In a future world where Neuralink-type devices can instantly upload data to our mind and impart us with world’s knowledge, what is valuable, the experience of getting to know or the knowing itself, the journey or the destination?
Virat 的下一个问题是：“在未来的世界中，Neuralink 类型的设备可以立即将数据上传到我们的大脑并传授给我们世界知识，什么是有价值的，是认识的经验还是认识本身，旅程还是目的地？
Is it even valuable?
它还有价值吗？
What’s after ‘we know all’?” They clarify that this is assuming that Neuralink devices are much more advanced than they are now, that it can literally implant the world’s knowledge in your brain.
‘我们都知道’之后是什么？”他们澄清说，这是假设 Neuralink 设备比现在先进得多，它可以真正将世界知识植入你的大脑中。
That world seems very distant to me.
那个世界对我来说似乎很遥远。
I don’t have intuitions about that world.
我对那个世界没有直觉。
A world where, say, people who have problems with paralysis can do very useful things through Neuralink, that’s not distant.
比如说，患有瘫痪的人可以通过 Neuralink 做一些非常有用的事情，这并不遥远。
The rest, I don’t know.
其余的，我不知道。
It just may not even be true.
这甚至可能不是真的。
I would make the general point, the process is super important, that just something like writing, where LLMs can write well, but that you need to be writing all the time, that should never go away.
我想说的是，这个过程非常重要，就像写作一样，法学硕士可以写得很好，但你需要一直写作，这一点永远不应该消失。
It’s a simpler example, more tractable.
这是一个更简单的例子，更容易处理。
I strongly believe there in the process for humans and not just the outcome.
我坚信人类的过程而不仅仅是结果。
On Tyler’s interview style
论泰勒的采访风格
All right.
好吧。
Next question from Naveen Mishra: “Why haven’t more people copied your interviewing style?”
纳文·米什拉 (Naveen Mishra) 提出的下一个问题是：“为什么没有更多人效仿你的面试风格？”
Well, why should they?
那么，他们为什么要这么做呢？
For one thing, it might not be good.
一方面，这可能不太好。
Second, it requires a great deal of preparation.
其次，需要大量的准备工作。
Not just on-the-spot preparation, but the lifetime of having read a lot in a broad number of areas.
不仅仅是现场准备，而是一生在广泛领域进行大量阅读。
Yes, it’s just difficult.
是的，这只是很难。
I’m not sure the returns to them are that high.
我不确定他们的回报是否那么高。
Why should they do it?
他们为什么要这样做？
Yes, we believe in pluralism.
是的，我们相信多元化。
Let a thousand flowers bloom.
让万花齐放。
I think you have your style.
我认为你有你的风格。
It’s not for everyone.
它并不适合所有人。
Some people are very turned off but it.
有些人对此非常反感。
It’s a joke of the show that we call it Conversations with Tyler; it’s more like a grilling by Tyler in many cases.
这是节目的一个笑话，我们称之为“与泰勒对话”；在很多情况下，这更像是泰勒的烧烤。
I think one thing that has become more of a convention that people adopt is the super specific first question.
我认为人们采用的一件事更像是一种惯例，那就是超级具体的第一个问题。
You’re known for that.
你因此而闻名。
Yes, and getting to the point quickly.
是的，而且很快就进入正题。
Just get into it.
只要投入其中即可。
In a way, what I’ve reflected on this year has also been that that lends itself very well to video and YouTube.
在某种程度上，我今年所反思的也是视频和 YouTube 非常适合它。
Good.
好的。
If we talk to Any Austin about this, he would tell us that when he crafts a YouTube video, one of the things you learn very quickly is you just need to get to the point.
如果我们和 Any Austin 谈论这个问题，他会告诉我们，当他制作 YouTube 视频时，你很快就能学到的一件事就是你只需要切入要点。
You need to get right into it.
你需要立即投入其中。
Then, of course, they have tricks of how they keep the user engaged throughout.
当然，他们也有让用户全程参与的技巧。
But intros, things like that are just death.
但介绍一下，类似的事情就是死亡。
For you, that’s been an instinct you’ve had.
对你来说，这是你的本能。
In a weird way, you’re ahead of the game as a YouTuber.
奇怪的是，作为一名 YouTuber，你在竞争中处于领先地位。
I think there’s another point here that for someone to adopt some version of my style, they both need to be strong enough intellectually to be a guest, but also deferential enough to want to be a host.
我认为这里还有一点，如果有人采用我的某种风格，他们既需要足够强大的智力来成为客人，又需要足够的恭敬来成为主人。
There’s many super impressive people who are great guests, but the idea that they take the guest hat off and just become the interviewer doesn’t interest them at all.
有很多令人印象深刻的人都是很棒的嘉宾，但他们对脱下嘉宾帽子而成为面试官的想法根本不感兴趣。
I think it’s a weird personality quirk of mine that I like to do both, or can do both, or will do both, and that severely limits the number of people who will have my style.
我认为我有一个奇怪的性格怪癖，我喜欢两者都做，或者可以两者都做，或者会两者都做，这严重限制了拥有我风格的人的数量。
Then if a guest comes back to me and says on something, “Well, Tyler, what do you think?” I do typically have something to say, whether or not they or all you listeners like it, but I do have something to say.
然后，如果一位客人回到我身边并对某事说：“那么，泰勒，你觉得怎么样？”我通常确实有话要说，无论他们或所有听众是否喜欢，但我确实有话要说。
That’s an important part of the style, even though it’s not always that frequent.
这是风格的重要组成部分，尽管它并不总是那么频繁。
On Tyler’s lack of joy
关于泰勒缺乏快乐
Yes.
是的。
All right.
好的。
Next question from Jumfrey Tuckins: “When was the last time you had uncontrollable laughter, and what caused it?”
Jumfrey Tuckins 提出的下一个问题是：“你最后一次无法控制地大笑是什么时候？是什么原因导致的？”
Probably the correct answer is never.
也许正确的答案是永远不会。
Literally never in my life.
在我的生活中从来没有。
Aw, Tyler.
噢，泰勒。
Why should it be uncontrollable?
为什么它应该是不可控的？
Things just aren’t that funny.
事情并不那么有趣。
How good can something taste?
东西的味道能有多好？
Take the best sushi I’ve ever had, which was quite good.
拿我吃过的最好的寿司来说，那是相当不错的。
Things can taste a bit better than that, but not much.
东西的味道可能比那好一点，但也好不了多少。
Funniness is a maximum.
有趣是最大的。
It does not bring me to uncontrollable laughter.
它不会让我无法控制地笑。
That’s just the equilibrium.
这只是平衡。
This is consistent with how you presented yourself before, where you’ve talked about how you feel like you don’t have the extreme highs and lows of other people.
这与你之前的自我介绍是一致的，你曾谈到你的感觉，就像你没有其他人那样极端的高潮和低谷。
You’re much more of a steady middle kind of person.
你更像是一个稳定的中间人。
Either displeasure or pleasure, you don’t get the extremes as much.
无论是不高兴还是高兴，你都不会走极端。
Isn’t uncontrollable laughter in some ways a kind of displeasure?
无法控制的笑声在某种程度上不也是一种不悦吗？
I don’t know, since I’ve never had it.
我不知道，因为我从来没有经历过。
In the sense that sometimes, if you get tickled, sometimes you’re laughing, but you want it to stop.
从某种意义上说，有时，如果你被挠痒痒，有时你会笑，但你希望它停止。
Right.
正确的。
No, I think what that’s getting at is those times where something has just so metaphorically tickled you that you — usually, it’s with another person.
不，我认为这指的是那些隐喻性地让你发痒的东西，以至于你——通常，是和另一个人在一起的时候。
Not going to happen.
不会发生的。
Sorry.
对不起。
That makes me a little sad.
这让我有点难过。
Maybe just you’re not funny enough.
也许只是你不够有趣。
Have you considered that?
你考虑过吗？
Oh, shots fired, Tyler.
哦，枪响了，泰勒。
Oh, my gosh.
哦，天哪。
I don’t mean you, but you, collective humanity.
我指的不是你们，而是你们，人类集体。
Okay, collective you.
好吧，集体你们。
All right.
好的。
I heard Louis C.K.
我听说路易斯·C.K.
live, which is the funniest show I’ve ever heard.
live，这是我听过的最有趣的节目。
I laughed quite a bit, but I was not close to uncontrollably laughing.
我笑了很多，但还没有到无法控制地笑的程度。
Do you have any theory as to why that is?
你有什么理论可以解释为什么会这样吗？
When that happens, again, there’s something that you and another person are experiencing together, that you’ve realized you’ve had the same thought or same experience, and it’s just —
当这种情况再次发生时，你和另一个人正在一起经历一些事情，你意识到你们有相同的想法或相同的经历，而这只是 -
I suspect it’s heritable, with apologies to Alison Gopnik.
我怀疑它是可遗传的，向艾莉森·戈普尼克表示歉意。
Yes.
是的。
This is very consistent.
这是非常一致的。
On one hand, I should not be surprised at all by that answer, but I still would think that there would be some time in your life, even as a kid, where something would just tickle you, and I’m surprised —
一方面，我不应该对这个答案感到惊讶，但我仍然会认为，在你的生活中，即使是个孩子，也会有一些时候，有些东西会让你发痒，我很惊讶 ——
It’s possible.
这是可能的。
I can’t rule it out, but I don’t recall it.
我不能排除它，但我不记得了。
Okay.
好的。
All right.
好的。
On our Discord, Fuzzy Bunny asks, “How has the comment section on Marginal Revolution changed your views on regulation?” They meant this a little tongue-in-cheek, but that’s the question.
在我们的 Discord 上，Fuzzy Bunny 问道：“边际革命的评论部分如何改变了您对监管的看法？”他们的意思有点半开玩笑，但这就是问题所在。
They mean regulation of internet content?
他们的意思是对互联网内容的监管？
I think it’s a comment on just MR commenters in general and their general tenor, and maybe so.
我认为这只是对 MR 评论者及其总体基调的评论，也许是这样。
Maybe it is about, has it changed your views on speech?
也许是关于，它改变了你对言论的看法吗？
I don’t know, interpret as you will.
我不知道，按你的意思解释。
If some big tech company, Meta, formerly Facebook, decides they want to take content down, I’m not like, “Ooh, boo-hoo, free speech.” I’m like, “Yes.” It was probably terrible.
如果一些大型科技公司 Meta（前身为 Facebook）决定删除内容，我不会说“哦，嘘，言论自由。”我说：“是的。”这可能太可怕了。
I don’t think it’s censorship.
我不认为这是审查制度。
They own the platform.
他们拥有这个平台。
It’s up to them.
这取决于他们。
If they don’t want to put someone up saying, “Lemon meringue pie is great,” I’m like, “Yes, lemon meringue pie is not great.” That’s fine.
如果他们不想让别人说“柠檬酥皮派很棒”，我会说，“是的，柠檬酥皮派不太好。”没关系。
You spread the truth, and it just doesn’t bother me at all.
你传播了真相，但我一点也不介意。
If I delete someone, I’m like, “Yes.” There’ve been some people recently, they’ll just say something about Trump, which is well within any previous guidelines.
如果我删除某人，我会说“是的”。最近有些人，他们只是说一些关于特朗普的事情，这完全符合之前的任何指导方针。
I just look at it, roll my eyes, say, “This is not going to make any of the conversation better,” and I’ll just delete it.
我只是看着它，翻白眼，说：“这不会让任何对话变得更好，”然后我就把它删除。
Yes.
是的。
Maybe we take that view of regulation/moderation.
也许我们对监管/节制持这种观点。
We do a fair amount in Marginal Revolution.
我们在《边际革命》中做了相当多的工作。
I think it makes the experience better, the discourse better.
我认为这让体验变得更好，对话也变得更好。
Does that generalize in any way to you?
这对你来说有什么概括吗？
Do you have lessons that you take to that, that you would apply to other domains?
您是否有一些可以应用到其他领域的经验教训？
Well, we should be very tolerant of more dominant suppliers doing the same thing.
好吧，我们应该非常容忍更多的主导供应商做同样的事情。
Again, people used to say, “There’s nowhere to go but Facebook.” It’s just not true, and it’s less true than it was when people used to say it.
人们常说：“除了 Facebook，我们别无选择。”这不是真的，而且比人们过去所说的更不真实。
On how well ChatGPT answers as Tyler
关于 ChatGPT 作为 Tyler 的回答如何
All right.
好吧。
Okay, let’s try an experiment.
好吧，让我们尝试一下实验。
Thomas Marbson says, “Ask him which of the other questions AI will provide the same answer when asked to answer as Tyler Cowen, and then do it to see if he gets it right.” Of those previous listener questions, which one do you think AI will do the best job asking?
托马斯·马布森 (Thomas Marbson) 说：“问他其他哪些问题，当要求人工智能回答泰勒·考恩 (Tyler Cowen) 时，人工智能会提供与泰勒·考恩 (Tyler Cowen) 相同的答案，然后看看他是否答对。”在之前的听众问题中，您认为人工智能最能提出哪一个问题？
We’ll do a test and see how it goes.
我们将进行测试，看看效果如何。
Do you remember what the questions were?
你还记得问题是什么吗？
No, I don’t.
不，我不。
Grown in influence, more honest or cautious, how you pick hotels, change course on tariffs.
影响力不断增长，更加诚实或谨慎，你如何选择酒店，改变关税方针。
Change course on tariffs.
改变关税方针。
All right, let’s ask the change course on tariffs question.
好吧，我们来问一下关税改变方向的问题。
There can be a lag.
可能会有滞后。
It needed to have read the internet this morning.
今天早上它需要阅读互联网。
It depends when you asked it.
这取决于你什么时候问的。
If it’s read the internet this morning, it ought to give the same answer as I did.
如果它今天早上浏览互联网，它应该给出与我相同的答案。
We just asked ChatGPT to answer as you.
我们刚刚请 ChatGPT 为您解答。
Now, I will say that ChatGPT immediately put the disclaimer on that it “can’t write as Tyler Cowen, but it will provide a crisp, economist-eye answer with a similar vibe.”
现在，我要说的是，ChatGPT 立即发布了免责声明，称它“不能像泰勒·考恩那样写作，但它将提供一个清晰的、经济学家眼中的答案，并具有类似的氛围。”
What will make the US change course on tariffs?
是什么让美国改变关税方针？
It provides 10 reasons.
它提供了 10 个理由。
One, inflation that voters can trace to tariffs.
第一，选民可以将通货膨胀归因于关税。
Two, administrative bottlenecks become the story.
第二，行政瓶颈成为问题。
In other words, problems at the ports, compliance costs.
换句话说，港口问题、合规成本。
Three, a grand bargain tied to security.
第三，与安全相关的大交易。
Four, recession plus employment insurance politics.
四、经济衰退加上就业保险政治。
Five, corporate America unifies, especially outside of big tech.
第五，美国企业界团结起来，尤其是在大型科技公司之外。
Six, agriculture feels boxed out.
第六，农业感觉被排除在外。
Seven, a carbon deal reframes the border.
第七，碳协议重塑边界。
Eight, Mexico, Vietnam, India bargains.
八、墨西哥、越南、印度讨价还价。
Nine, legal or budget constraints bite.
九、法律或预算限制。
Ten, symbolic win the White House can sell.
十、白宫可以出售的象征性胜利。
Okay, it didn’t pick up the Supreme Court at all.
好吧，它根本没有提到最高法院。
It’s being too thorough.
实在是太彻底了。
Yes.
是的。
It didn’t pick up the Supreme Court at all, but which of those 10 reasons is closest to you, do you think?
它根本没有提到最高法院，但这 10 个理由中哪一个最接近你，你认为吗？
I would dismiss the carbon answer.
我会驳回碳答案。
The others are all factors, but keep in mind we’re asking it about the delta.
其他都是因素，但请记住，我们正在询问三角洲。
What will change?
会发生什么变化？
They’re all things that have been in place.
它们都是已经就位的东西。
I think what also has changed, and we’re speaking the day after the election results, where the Democrats won a lot by more than expected, is this will motivate the Republican Congress to stand up to Trump more and be more resistant.
我认为也发生了变化，我们在选举结果公布后的第二天发表讲话，民主党以超出预期的优势获胜，这将激励共和党国会更加勇敢地对抗特朗普并更加抵制。
That too can account for the delta in addition to the Supreme Court decisions.
除了最高法院的判决之外，这也可以解释三角洲。
On Tyler’s 2015 movie picks
泰勒 2015 年电影精选
All right.
好吧。
Let’s move on to 2015 pop culture picks.
让我们继续看 2015 年流行文化精选。
As you mentioned earlier in the show, this is actually the 10th anniversary year of Conversations with Tyler.
正如您在节目中之前提到的，今年实际上是《与泰勒对话》十周年。
We started in April 2015.
我们从 2015 年 4 月开始。
This is the first year you’re giving pop culture picks when the show was a thing.
今年是你第一次在节目流行时提供流行文化选择。
Now, we only did maybe four episodes that year.
现在，那一年我们只拍了四集。
It was very sporadic at first.
起初非常零星。
This might be the first year where CWT starts to actually inform some of the picks.
这可能是 CWT 开始实际告知一些选秀的第一年。
Let’s start with movies.
我们先从电影开始吧。
You start by saying, “I thought this was the worst year for movies since I have been watching them.
你首先会说：“我认为这是我观看电影以来最糟糕的一年。
In fact, I think you could multiply this year’s good films by two and still have the worst year for movies in a long time.”
事实上，我认为今年的好电影可以乘以两倍，但仍然是很长一段时间以来最糟糕的一年。”
That’s still true.
这仍然是事实。
Put aside pandemic weirdness.
抛开大流行的怪异。
I went back and looked at the list.
我回去看了看名单。
It was an awful year for movies.
对于电影来说，这是糟糕的一年。
There’s very little on it that has stuck with me.
其中几乎没有什么让我印象深刻的。
All right, so let’s run through it.
好吧，让我们来看看吧。
You said, “Here are some of the ones I liked.” One, American Sniper.
你说：“这是我喜欢的一些。”一、美国狙击手。
Clint Eastwood.
克林特·伊斯特伍德。
Good movie.
好电影。
Pretty good.
不错。
There’s a lot of Clint Eastwood.
克林特·伊斯特伍德有很多。
When I go to my grave, it won’t be one of the three or four that are the most important, but it was a good movie.
当我进入坟墓时，最重要的不会是三四个中的一个，但它是一部好电影。
Gett: The Trial of Viviane Amsalem.
盖特：维维安·阿姆萨勒姆的审判。
Yes, about Orthodox Judaism.
是的，关于正统犹太教。
Fun movie.
有趣的电影。
Hasn’t stuck with me.
没有坚持住我。
Ex Machina.
机械姬。
Alex Garland movie.
亚历克斯·加兰的电影。
It’s become seminal, but when I saw it, I felt it was a bit thin.
它已经成为开创性的，但当我看到它时，我觉得它有点薄弱。
Now, of course, it’s an important film.
当然，现在这是一部重要的电影。
That’s okay.
没关系。
Maybe it should be, but it’s a good movie.
也许应该如此，但这是一部好电影。
It’s not a great movie.
这不是一部很棒的电影。
Inside Out.
由内而外。
You say, “It seemed splendid at the time, but hasn’t stuck with me.”
你说：“当时看起来很精彩，但我并没有留下深刻的印象。”
A lot of Pixar seems worse, even the great classics.
皮克斯的很多作品看起来都很糟糕，即使是伟大的经典作品也是如此。
I never sit around and think, “Oh, I’d love to see Toy Story again,” though at the time I loved it.
我从来不会坐下来想，“哦，我很想再次看《玩具总动员》，”尽管当时我很喜欢它。
Well, I have to say, given our earlier discussion about belly laughs, it’s not surprising to me a movie about your inner emotions being in competition with each other is not resonating with you much after you see it.
好吧，我不得不说，考虑到我们之前关于捧腹大笑的讨论，一部关于你内心情感相互竞争的电影在你看完之后并没有引起太多共鸣，这对我来说并不奇怪。
All right.
好的。
Number five, Red Army.
第五，红军。
That I loved.
我所爱的。
It’s a 70-minute documentary about the Soviet hockey team.
这是一部关于苏联曲棍球队的 70 分钟纪录片。
You could say it’s a minor achievement, but it was the best movie that year that I know of.
你可以说这是一个小小的成就，但它是我所知道的那一年最好的电影。
Meru, a documentary about climbing very high mountains and human motivation.
Meru，一部关于攀登高山和人类动机的纪录片。
Behavioral economics on the screen.
屏幕上的行为经济学。
Good.
好的。
You say it should win a Cass Sunstein award.
你说它应该赢得卡斯桑斯坦奖。
What does that mean?
这意味着什么？
Well, I was referring to behavioral economics and nudge and different reasons why people do things.
嗯，我指的是行为经济学、助推以及人们做事的不同原因。
Cass used to have an award for the best movie each year on behavioral econ, and that’s why I was referring to Cass in that context.
卡斯曾经每年获得行为经济学最佳电影奖，这就是为什么我在这种情况下提到卡斯。
Does he need to update that award for liberalism now?
他现在需要更新自由主义奖项吗？
That’s an excellent question.
这是一个很好的问题。
He should start it.
他应该开始做。
I don’t think he’s done it for movies for a while, not that I can recall.
我想他已经有一段时间没有在电影中这样做了，我不记得了。
Best movie for liberalism each year.
每年最佳自由主义电影。
Cass should do it.
卡斯应该这么做。
All right, Cass.
好吧，卡斯。
Gauntlet is thrown.
挑战被抛出。
All right.
好的。
A Brilliant Young Mind.
一个才华横溢的年轻心灵。
X+Y is the title of the original UK release.
X+Y 是英国原版的标题。
I don’t remember.
我不记得了。
Well, it’s from Taiwan, right?
嗯，是台湾来的吧？
Yes.
是的。
Vanished.
消失了。
Grandma, starring Lily Tomlin.
《奶奶》由莉莉·汤姆林主演。
Vanished.
消失了。
The Martian by Andy Weir.
安迪·威尔的《火星救援》。
I hesitated there because The Martian, the book, I think, came out the year before.
我犹豫了，因为我认为《火星救援》这本书是前一年出版的。
It was pretty fast.
速度相当快。
He was a great guest.
他是一位很棒的客人。
Good movie.
好电影。
Again, not as good as a lot of other science fiction movies.
再说一遍，不如很多其他科幻电影。
Just a good movie.
只是一部好电影。
About Elly.
关于艾莉.
Iranian movie, has aged very well, and that director has stayed of significance.
伊朗电影已经很老了，那位导演仍然很重要。
That maybe has gone up a bit in stature, but it’s not his best movie.
这也许有点上升了，但这不是他最好的电影。
A Separation is his best movie.
《别离》是他最好的电影。
Macbeth.
麦克白。
I don’t know where that dialect comes from.
我不知道这种方言是从哪里来的。
Macbeth, this is the version starring Michael Fassbender, Marion Cotillard.
《麦克白》，这是迈克尔·法斯宾德、玛丽昂·歌迪亚主演的版本。
It was good, but in general, I prefer to read Shakespeare rather than see it on the screen.
这很好，但总的来说，我更喜欢读莎士比亚而不是在屏幕上看到它。
I just process it better when it’s on the page.
当它出现在页面上时，我会更好地处理它。
No fault of the movie.
电影没有错。
My favorite Shakespearean movie, I guess, is Chimes at Midnight, which takes great liberties with Shakespeare, and that’s Orson Welles, of course.
我想，我最喜欢的莎士比亚电影是《午夜钟声》，它对莎士比亚进行了极大的自由发挥，当然，这就是奥逊·威尔斯。
Carol.
颂歌。
Yes, good, but there’s no movie where when we get to the fiction books for the year, which maybe we’ll do shortly, but you have Submission by Houellebecq, and you have the final volume of Ferrante in one year.
是的，很好，但是没有一部电影可以让我们看到今年的小说书，也许我们很快就会这样做，但是你有维勒贝克的《提交》，还有一年后的费兰特的最后一卷。
Oh my goodness.
哦，我的天啊。
What’s the movie equivalent to those?
电影相当于什么？
With all due respect, Red Army is not in the same league as those novels.
恕我直言，《红军》与那些小说不属于同一级别。
Sicario.
西卡里奥。
Good movie, but I don’t know.
电影不错，就是不知道。
It feels like a tired theme by now.
现在感觉这个主题已经很累了。
There’s plenty of movies about drug gangs and the like.
有很多关于贩毒团伙之类的电影。
Sicario is probably the one that people talk about the most.
《边境杀手》可能是人们谈论最多的一部。
It is, but I don’t think it’s great.
是的，但我不认为这有多好。
I think it’s just good.
我认为这很好。
There’s some very good sequences.
有一些非常好的序列。
Mustang.
野马。
Not even sure.
甚至不确定。
This is set in a remote Turkish village, depicts the lives of five young orphan sisters and the challenges they face growing up in a conservative society.
故事发生在一个偏远的土耳其村庄，描绘了五个年轻孤儿姐妹的生活以及她们在保守社会中成长所面临的挑战。
Oh, that’s good.
哦，那很好。
It’s a good movie.
这是一部好电影。
Yes, now I remember.
是的，现在我想起来了。
Anomalisa.
异常。
This is the Charlie Kaufman movie.
这是查理·考夫曼的电影。
One of those weird movies.
那些奇怪的电影之一。
I’ve totally forgot this existed.
我完全忘记了这个存在。
None of them have aged well for me.
对我来说，他们中没有一个人已经老了。
Blind, Norwegian movie.
挪威电影《盲人》。
It’s about someone who’s losing her eyesight in midlife.
这是关于一个中年失去视力的人的故事。
That year for books was so good, and for movies, so miserable.
那一年对于书来说是那么美好，对于电影来说是那么惨淡。
All right.
好的。
I’ll take the hint.
我会接受这个提示。
Let’s move on.
让我们继续吧。
The last one you mentioned is Diary of a Teenage Girl, for the record.
您提到的最后一本是《少女日记》，郑重声明。
On Tyler’s 2015 book picks
泰勒 2015 年图书精选
Let’s move to books.
让我们转向书籍。
Let’s start with non-fiction.
让我们从非小说类作品开始。
You list something like 27 or 28 non-fiction books this year.
今年你列出了大约 27 或 28 本非小说类书籍。
I’m just going to run through them, and you stop me if you have something to say.
我只是想把它们讲一遍，如果你有话要说，你就阻止我。
The best was the Robert Tombs book about English history.
最好的是罗伯特·图姆斯（Robert Tombs）关于英国历史的书。
Since that blog post, so many people have come to me and said, “Can you recommend to me other books like the Robert Tombs book?” Which is a sign it really hit people in a good way.
自从那篇博客文章发布以来，很多人来找我说：“你能给我推荐其他书籍，比如《罗伯特·坟墓》的书吗？”这表明它确实以良好的方式打动了人们。
That was probably the clear winner for best book of that year, and everyone should read it.
这可能是当年最佳图书的明显赢家，每个人都应该阅读它。
It’s just a book about English history.
这只是一本关于英国历史的书。
Utterly compelling.
非常引人注目。
Has Tombs done much since then?
从那时起，坟墓做了很多事情吗？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I think he had one other book.
我认为他还有另一本书。
I’m not sure.
我不知道。
I should check.
我应该检查一下。
It’s called The English and Their History.
这本书的名字叫《英国人和他们的历史》。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
Great title.
很棒的标题。
Let me run through these.
让我来回顾一下这些。
You can stop me if you have anything to say.
如果你有什么话要说的话，可以阻止我。
Mastering Metrics: The Path from Cause to Effect by Angrist and Steffen Pischke.
《掌握指标：从因果到结果的路径》作者：Angrist 和 Steffen Pischke。
An incredible achievement, but it’s not a book in the sense that you read it, right?
这是一项令人难以置信的成就，但这并不是一本你读过的书，对吧？
Dani Rodrik, Economics Rules, CWT guest.
Dani Rodrik，经济规则，CWT 嘉宾。
Mercantilism, to me, looks worse than it did 10 years ago, now that I have to live under it.
对我来说，重商主义看起来比十年前更糟糕，现在我不得不生活在重商主义之下。
Richard Thaler, Misbehaving: The Making of Behavioral Economics, speaking of Cass Sunstein.
理查德·泰勒（Richard Thaler），《行为不当：行为经济学的形成》，谈到卡斯·桑斯坦（Cass Sunstein）。
There should be more books about economics and economists, and that was a good one.
应该有更多关于经济学和经济学家的书籍，这是一本好书。
Garett Jones, The Hive Mind.
加雷特·琼斯，《蜂巢思维》。
Garett’s my colleague.
加雷特是我的同事。
That book is still cited a lot in places like The Economist.
这本书至今仍被《经济学人》等杂志广泛引用。
It’s held up very well, and I think it’s become a seminal work.
它保存得很好，我认为它已经成为一部开创性的作品。
I’m glad I picked it.
我很高兴我选择了它。
Scott Sumner, The Midas Paradox.
斯科特·萨姆纳，《迈达斯悖论》。
I think Scott is correct that the biggest problem in the Great Depression was the deflationary pressures.
我认为斯科特的观点是正确的，即大萧条时期最大的问题是通货紧缩压力。
Andrew Ross Sorkin and I talked about that in our episode from this year.
安德鲁·罗斯·索金和我在今年的节目中谈到了这一点。
A very thorough book that Scott worked on for something like 20 years.
这是一本非常详尽的书，斯科特花了大约 20 年的时间编写。
All right.
好的。
I will not go through the rest of the list, but you do say the ones that you think are the best are Ashlee Vance’s book on Elon Musk.
我不会列出清单的其余部分，但你确实说过你认为最好的书是阿什莉·万斯 (Ashlee Vance) 关于埃隆·马斯克 (Elon Musk) 的书。
All the more important, right?
更重要的是，对吧？
Elon is her main force, to say the least.
至少可以说，埃隆是她的主力。
You also really like Charles Moore’s book, a biography of Margaret Thatcher.
你也很喜欢查尔斯·摩尔的书，玛格丽特·撒切尔的传记。
It’s called Margaret Thatcher: At Her Zenith: In London, Washington and Moscow, volume 2 of the biography.
这本书的名字叫《玛格丽特·撒切尔：巅峰时期：在伦敦、华盛顿和莫斯科》，传记第二卷。
One of the best biographies of the last 10 years.
过去十年最好的传记之一。
For many people, it’s too detailed, to be clear, but just quality of book, it’s unbelievable.
对于很多人来说，它太详细了，难以清晰，但单就书的质量而言，就令人难以置信。
Then Frank McLynn, a book on Genghis Khan.
然后是弗兰克·麦克林（Frank McLynn），一本关于成吉思汗的书。
I might say the book on Hun Sen I would put in its place.
我可能会说，我会把关于洪森的书放在它的位置上。
It’s just more contemporary.
它只是更现代。
There are so many good non-fiction books that year.
那一年有很多好的非小说类书籍。
I didn’t have to stretch to get to 28 to be listed.
我不必费力地达到 28 名即可上榜。
This year’s list will be fine, but that year’s list was better.
今年的名单还可以，但那一年的名单更好。
I hope it’s not a trend.
我希望这不是一种趋势。
I fear it is, by the way.
顺便说一句，恐怕是这样。
Let’s move to fiction.
让我们转向小说。
You thought it was a stellar year for fiction, as you’ve previously mentioned.
正如您之前提到的，您认为今年是小说的辉煌一年。
You mentioned Michel Houellebecq, Submission.
你提到了米歇尔·维勒贝克（Michel Houellebecq）的《服从》。
That’s come up many times on CWT as well.
这在 CWT 上也出现过很多次。
The most classic work of fiction of the last 20 years, I would say.
我想说，这是过去 20 年来最经典的小说作品。
You can think of it as a work of non-fiction in a sense.
从某种意义上来说，你可以将其视为一部非小说类作品。
It’s a work of philosophy.
这是一部哲学著作。
Not quite predictive.
不太有预测性。
Not quite normative.
不太规范。
A weird combination of them both.
他们两者的奇怪组合。
Everyone refers to it.
大家都参考一下。
It rewards rereads and it’s just incredible.
它会奖励重读，这真是令人难以置信。
It’s short for all that.
这一切都是简短的。
There’s more to it than you think on the first read.
其中的内容比您第一次阅读时想象的要多。
I would just tell everyone that.
我只想告诉大家这一点。
You said in the post that you read it in German first because that was the first way you could get your hands on it.
您在帖子中说您首先阅读了德语版本，因为这是您获得它的第一种方式。
It was out in German before English and I was in a rush.
德语先于英语出版，我很着急。
I do that sometimes.
我有时会这样做。
All right.
好的。
You reread it in English, though, you said?
你说你用英文重读一遍？
Yes.
是的。
It completely holds up.
它完全站得住脚。
Larry Kramer, The American People.
拉里·克莱默，《美国人民》。
Has not stuck with me.
没有坚持住我。
The Seventh Day by Yu Hua.
余华的《第七日》。
Has not stuck with me.
没有坚持住我。
The Widower is a great book, the one from Singapore.
《鳏夫》是一本很棒的书，来自新加坡。
I mentioned that.
我提到过这一点。
Daoud from France, from Algeria.
达乌德来自法国，来自阿尔及利亚。
The retelling of Camus has become a classic book.
加缪的重述已成为经典。
The Meursault Investigation.
默尔索调查。
Yes.
是的。
You have three classic books that year, two mega-classic beyond belief, quality and important, and then some other good ones.
那一年你有三本经典书籍，两本超乎想象、质量高且重要的超级经典，然后还有其他一些好书。
On Tyler’s 2015 music picks
泰勒 2015 年音乐精选
All right.
好吧。
Let’s move on to music.
让我们继续音乐。
You just call this post “The Year in Recorded Music,” and you say, “Here is some of what I listened to.
你只需将这篇文章称为“录制音乐的一年”，然后你说，“这是我听过的一些内容。
A big chunk of rap and R&B centered around Kanye West, Frank Ocean, Kendrick Lamar, Drake, and D’Angelo, among others.”
很大一部分说唱和 R&B 集中在 Kanye West、Frank Ocean、Kendrick Lamar、Drake 和 D’Angelo 等人身上。”
It was a peak time for that kind of work, right?
那是此类工作的高峰期，对吗？
A fantastic time to be listening to it.
聆听它的美好时光。
Kanye, of course, has taken other courses.
当然，坎耶还参加过其他课程。
That’s when I should have been listening to that music, and I was.
那是我应该听音乐的时候，我确实听了。
You say, “Marvin Gaye is gone, but we’re actually living in a second golden age.
你说：“马文·盖伊去世了，但我们实际上生活在第二个黄金时代。
Enjoy it.”
享受它吧。”
Not anymore.
不再。
It’s over.
结束了。
D’Angelo passed away this year.
德安吉洛今年去世了。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
Kanye went crazy or something, whatever you want to call it.
坎耶疯了或者什么的，不管你怎么称呼它。
Kendrick Lamar, it’s still quality product, but it doesn’t feel fresh to me these days.
Kendrick Lamar，它仍然是优质产品，但现在对我来说并不新鲜。
It’s just like, “Oh, some more of that.
就像，“哦，还有一些。
The last CD was 78 minutes.
最后一张CD是78分钟。
Maybe we’ll get another 78 minutes.
也许我们还能再获得 78 分钟的时间。
Okay.” Yes, it’s over.
好吧。”是的，结束了。
Maybe now it’s country and western.
也许现在是乡村和西部。
I’m not sure.
我不知道。
Maybe.
或许。
Number two, “Kamasi Washington’s The Epic was the jazz album I’ve enjoyed the most.”
第二，“卡马西·华盛顿的《The Epic》是我最喜欢的爵士乐专辑。”
Yes.
是的。
Again, held up very well.
再次，坚持得很好。
“The big box set of the year, which you might otherwise not think of buying, is Hula Land: Golden Age of Hawaiian Music.”
“今年你可能不会想到购买的大套装是草裙舞之地：夏威夷音乐的黄金时代。”
People don’t listen to it anymore.
人们不再听它了。
I don’t know why.
我不知道为什么。
It’s just fun.
这很有趣。
It’s super accessible, and it also feels and sounds different.
它非常容易上手，而且感觉和听起来也不同。
“From Syria, I’ll again recommend Dabke: Sounds of the Syrian Houran,” I’m not sure if I’m saying that right, “and Omar Souleyman, both highly worthwhile.”
“在叙利亚，我会再次推荐 Dabke：叙利亚胡兰之声，”我不确定我说得对不对，“还有 Omar Souleyman，两者都非常值得。”
Self-recommending, as they say.
正如他们所说，自我推荐。
“In classical music, my picks would be Matthew Bengtson, Scriabin Piano Sonatas.” Did I say that right?
“在古典音乐中，我会选择马修·本特森的斯克里亚宾钢琴奏鸣曲。”我说得对吗？
Yes, I know Matt.
是的，我认识马特。
He and I correspond sometimes.
我和他有时会通信。
He’s also an avid Magnus Carlsen fan.
他也是马格努斯·卡尔森的狂热粉丝。
He recorded what I think are the best versions of the Scriabin piano sonatas.
他录制了我认为最好的斯克里亚宾钢琴奏鸣曲版本。
I heard him play them live in some weird place up in Michigan, just like in a piano store.
我听到他在密歇根州某个奇怪的地方现场演奏这些曲子，就像在钢琴店一样。
I had an incredible seat, and it was one of my better musical experiences flat out.
我有一个令人难以置信的座位，这绝对是我更好的音乐体验之一。
You also recorded some new podcasts with Rick Rubin this year, where you did a sit-down interview with him, but you also DJ’d a set of choral music for him.
今年你还和 Rick Rubin 一起录制了一些新的播客，对他进行了一次坐下来的采访，同时你还为他制作了一套合唱音乐。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
What do you think?
你怎么认为？
What did you learn, putting that together for Rick, and what did he take away from it based on your conversations with him?
通过为 Rick 整理这些内容，你学到了什么？根据你与 Rick 的谈话，他从中得到了什么？
When you go through something all at once, even if you know most of it already, you do reevaluate it.
当你一下子经历一件事时，即使你已经知道其中的大部分，你也会重新评估它。
How good the 20th century was for choral music, which is maybe not everyone’s intuition, how much religious music was made in the 20th century, how much classical music never, in fact, declined, would be some of my key conclusions.
20世纪的合唱音乐有多好，这可能不是每个人的直觉，20世纪创作了多少宗教音乐，有多少古典音乐事实上从未衰落，将是我的一些关键结论。
It helped me understand Rick better.
它帮助我更好地了解瑞克。
He just loves Palestrina and Arvo Pärt.
他只喜欢 Palestrina 和 Arvo Pärt。
It makes sense.
这是有道理的。
There’s a purity to that sound.
那声音有一种纯净。
They’re not actually my personal favorites.
它们实际上不是我个人的最爱。
I want more rhythmic choral music or something more strange-sounding, but that blend between the two of us, he wanting the pure, I’m always wanting something weirder-sounding, I thought made that a very good podcast.
我想要更多有节奏的合唱音乐或者听起来更奇怪的东西，但是我们两个人之间的融合，他想要纯粹，我总是想要一些听起来更奇怪的东西，我认为这使得这是一个非常好的播客。
It’s one of the things I did this year that I’m happiest about.
这是我今年做的最开心的事情之一。
All right.
好的。
We are going to end this part of the retrospective right here, but listener, never fear, we’re going to be right back.
我们将在这里结束回顾的这一部分，但是听众，不要害怕，我们马上就会回来。
On the most popular episodes and thoughts on Oman
关于阿曼最受欢迎的剧集和想法
All right.
好吧。
Tyler, we are back.
泰勒，我们回来了。
For the listener, no time has passed, but for us, several weeks have passed, and we are now in completely different countries and, indeed, continents.
对于听众来说，时间并没有过去，但对于我们来说，已经过去了几个星期，我们现在身处完全不同的国家，甚至是不同的大陆。
Where in the world are you, Tyler?
泰勒，你到底在哪里？
I am nine hours later than you are.
我比你晚了九个小时。
I’m in Muscat, Oman, which is a lovely place, in some ways feels Mediterranean, and maybe it’s the most relaxed part of the Persian Gulf.
我在阿曼的马斯喀特，这是一个可爱的地方，在某些方面感觉像地中海，也许这是波斯湾最轻松的地方。
It’s very beautiful.
非常漂亮。
It has these white alabaster buildings, blue sky, mountains in the background, medieval castles, and the ocean, all in one view.
白色的雪花石膏建筑、蓝天、背景山脉、中世纪城堡和海洋，尽收眼底。
Why do you say most relaxed?
为什么说最轻松呢？
People here seem happier, not that uptight.
这里的人们看起来更快乐，而不是那么紧张。
Politically, Oman is never in the news.
在政治上，阿曼从来没有出现在新闻中。
I would say, overall, that’s a good thing.
我想说，总的来说，这是一件好事。
I’ve only been here a day, but that’s my immediate impression: easygoing.
我只来了一天，但这就是我的第一印象：随和。
You’re coming from two conferences we’ve had in India, the Emergent Ventures and political economy conference that Mercatus hosts in India.
你们来自我们在印度举办的两次会议，即 Mercatus 在印度主办的 Emergent Ventures 会议和政治经济学会议。
Is Oman your first stop after those conferences, or what else is on your itinerary?
阿曼是您参加这些会议之后的第一站吗？或者您的行程中还有其他目的地吗？
I was in another conference at Goa, which was wonderful.
我参加了在果阿举行的另一场会议，那真是太棒了。
It’s from Goa that I came to Oman.
我是从果阿来到阿曼的。
There’s actually a direct flight, Goa to Oman.
实际上有直飞航班，从果阿飞往阿曼。
It’s a bit more than two hours, but the two places are remarkably close.
两个多小时一点点，但是两个地方离得很近。
Anywhere after Oman?
阿曼之后还有什么地方吗？
Home, I hope, through Dubai.
我希望通过迪拜回家。
Where else?
还有哪里？
Very good.
非常好。
The reason we’re talking now is because when we recorded the first part of the retrospective, we didn’t actually know what the top episodes of the year would be.
我们现在谈论的原因是因为当我们录制回顾的第一部分时，我们实际上并不知道今年的热门剧集是什么。
We had some sense, but we didn’t know yet.
我们有一些感觉，但我们还不知道。
We also are currently running an end-of-year campaign.
我们目前还在开展年终活动。
Listeners had a chance, up through yesterday, to donate to get a shoutout on the podcast.
截至昨天，听众有机会捐款以获得播客的好评。
We want to thank those folks who gave to the campaign.
我们要感谢那些为该活动捐款的人们。
If you’re listening to this before the end of 2025, there’s still time.
如果您在 2025 年底之前收听此内容，那么还有时间。
You all have been very generous so far.
到目前为止，你们都非常慷慨。
We very much appreciate it, but there is still time to give if you’re so inclined.
我们非常感激，但如果您愿意的话，还有时间给予。
Tyler, let’s go to the top episodes then.
泰勒，让我们看一下热门剧集吧。
You guessed the morning we recorded the Sam Altman episode was releasing, you guessed that would be the top episode of the year.
你猜到我们录制的山姆·奥特曼剧集发布的那天早上，你猜到这将是今年的热门剧集。
It was.
是的。
Sam Altman was the top episode of the year.
山姆·奥特曼 (Sam Altman) 成为年度最佳剧集。
Very good.
非常好。
You also later said you thought Ezra Klein would be in the top.
您后来还表示，您认为埃兹拉·克莱因 (Ezra Klein) 会位居榜首。
He was number two.
他是第二名。
Number three, four, we’ll do through 10.
第三、第四，我们会做到第十。
I know you don’t have the list of episodes in front of you, but any other names jump out at you as what you would think top episode?
我知道您面前没有剧集列表，但是您会想到其他名字作为您认为的顶级剧集吗？
I think you also threw out Silver, which is correct.
我认为你也抛弃了白银，这是正确的。
He’s in the top five.
他是前五名。
Any other names you think in the top 10, top five?
您认为前十、前五名中还有其他名字吗？
I think a lot of the episodes, as you’ve told me, have broadly similar levels of listenership.
正如你告诉我的那样，我认为很多剧集的听众水平大致相似。
A lot of people have written me about the Dan Wang episode.
很多人写信给我谈论王丹事件。
That’s still running, you could say, and fairly live, but I predict that will end up doing quite well.
你可以说它仍在运行，而且相当活跃，但我预测它最终会表现得很好。
Other than that, it’s all a blur to me.
除此之外，对我来说一切都是模糊的。
I think they’ll all do well, pretty well, and it’s not clear to me why one would do better than the other, other than Ezra Klein, Nate Silver, and of course, Sam Altman.
我认为他们都会做得很好，相当好，但我不清楚为什么其中一个会比另一个做得更好，除了埃兹拉·克莱因（Ezra Klein）、内特·西尔弗（Nate Silver），当然还有萨姆·奥尔特曼（Sam Altman）。
Let’s run through them then.
那么让我们来看看它们。
Number one was Sam Altman.
第一名是萨姆·奥尔特曼。
Number two, Ezra Klein.
第二位，埃兹拉·克莱因。
Number three, Steven Pinker.
第三名，史蒂文·平克。
Yes, so we’re just doing celebrity here, right?
是的，所以我们只是在这里做名人，对吧？
I forgot about Pinker, but it makes sense he’s number three.
我忘记了平克，但他排名第三是有道理的。
I don’t think you’ll be surprised by four, David Brooks.
大卫·布鲁克斯，我认为你不会对四个感到惊讶。
That was our 92NY episode.
那是我们 92NY 的一集。
There’s market failure here.
这里存在市场失灵。
The famous people are getting more fame.
名人的名气越来越大。
This is the Matthew effect.
这就是马太效应。
I thought one of our purposes was to counteract this trend.
我认为我们的目的之一就是抵制这种趋势。
It is, and I apologize.
是的，我很抱歉。
I prostrate myself before you and ask for your forgiveness and the listener’s forgiveness that we’re not doing a better job getting relatively undiscovered people in the top 10.
我跪在你们面前，请求你们和听众的原谅，因为我们没有做得更好，让相对未被发现的人进入前十名。
It gets a little bit better in the bottom five.
倒数五名的情况会好一些。
Five is Nate Silver.
五是内特·西尔弗。
Six is Jack Clark.
六号是杰克·克拉克。
It’s six in a row, celebrity value.
连续六次，名人价值。
I’m not saying they weren’t very good episodes.
我并不是说它们不是很好的剧集。
They were, but still, it’s striking.
他们确实如此，但仍然令人震惊。
Number seven, David Commins.
第七位，大卫·康明斯。
Really?
真的吗？
Yes.
是的。
Did Saudi Arabia start listening to David?
沙特阿拉伯开始听大卫的话了吗？
What happened?
发生了什么？
I don’t know why, but that episode came in number seven.
我不知道为什么，但那一集排在第七位。
That was a very pleasant surprise for me.
这对我来说是一个非常惊喜的事情。
I liked that episode a lot, but I thought it would be about the least popular of the whole year.
我非常喜欢这一集，但我认为这将是全年最不受欢迎的一集。
Number seven for the year.
年度第七名。
If you haven’t listened to the David Commins episode, which covers the region Tyler is in, Saudi Arabia specifically, check it out because people really turned out for that one.
如果你还没有听过大卫·康明斯（David Commins）这一集，该集涵盖了泰勒所在的地区，特别是沙特阿拉伯，请检查一下，因为人们真的很喜欢这一集。
That’s good.
那挺好的。
Number eight, Blake Scholl.
第八名，布莱克·绍尔。
Okay, not surprising.
好吧，这并不奇怪。
Again, a bit of celebrity.
再次，有点名人。
A bit of celebrity.
有点名人。
Not as much of a household name, but definitely well known in the CWT crowd.
虽然不是家喻户晓的名字，但在 CWT 人群中绝对是众所周知的。
Number nine, Annie Jacobsen.
第九名，安妮·雅各布森。
Okay, that makes sense to me, actually.
好吧，实际上这对我来说很有意义。
Number 10, John Arnold.
10号，约翰·阿诺德。
Not surprising.
并不奇怪。
John is known in a few different groups of people, and I suspect that boosted him.
约翰在几个不同的人群中都广为人知，我怀疑这对他有很大的推动作用。
It was a very good episode.
这是非常好的一集。
We can still at least take some consolation in the fact that we had one truly surprising person in the top 10, that being David Commins.
至少我们仍然可以得到一些安慰，因为我们在前十名中有一位真正令人惊讶的人，那就是大卫·康明斯。
We’ll see next year if we can get a more eclectic top 10, but this is in keeping with the pattern of the past few years as well.
我们明年会看到是否能获得更不拘一格的前十名，但这也符合过去几年的模式。
Do we have differential data on whether people listen to the celebrities all the way through?
我们是否有关于人们是否从头到尾聆听名人讲话的差异数据？
We could see.
我们可以看到。
I think for us right now, it’d be different probably if we included YouTube, which I don’t count YouTube in these yet.
我认为现在对我们来说，如果我们将 YouTube 纳入其中，情况可能会有所不同，但我尚未将 YouTube 计算在内。
One disclaimer, this is the first week of podcast downloads.
免责声明，这是播客下载的第一周。
I’m looking in the first week, so some episodes maybe take off after the first week, but that tends to be pretty predictive.
我正在看第一周，所以有些剧集可能会在第一周后开始播出，但这往往是相当有预测性的。
Then I’m not yet looking at YouTube.
那我还没有看YouTube。
I suspect popularity would decrease watch time or listen time on YouTube.
我怀疑受欢迎程度会减少 YouTube 上的观看时间或收听时间。
Podcasts, I think they’re positively correlated, so the more popular ones tend to have perfectly good listen time as well.
播客，我认为它们是正相关的，所以更受欢迎的播客往往也有很好的收听时间。
All right.
好的。
You’re traveling about.
你正在四处旅行。
One Mercatus scholar, Salim Furth, had a question.
一位 Mercatus 学者 Salim Furth 有一个问题。
He submitted late, but I told him we were recording this coda, and he wanted to ask you.
他提交晚了，但我告诉他我们正在录制这个尾声，他想问你。
He wants to know how you spend your time on planes and cars.
他想知道你如何度过在飞机和汽车上的时间。
When you’ve got time to kill on planes and cars, what are you doing?
当你有时间在飞机和汽车上消磨时光时，你会做什么？
It’s pretty simple.
这很简单。
In planes, I’m pretty much always reading.
在飞机上，我几乎总是在读书。
I’ll spend some time keeping up with my email if there’s WiFi on the plane, but it’s 80 percent, 85 percent just reading books.
如果飞机上有 WiFi，我会花一些时间查看电子邮件，但 80%、85% 只是看书。
That works well for me.
这对我来说效果很好。
I don’t mind being on planes.
我不介意坐飞机。
Driving, I don’t really have long drives at the moment anywhere.
开车，我目前在任何地方都没有长途驾驶。
Say I’m driving to school, I’ll listen to satellite radio.
假设我开车去学校，我会听卫星广播。
If I’m with someone, I’ll just talk to the person, and that’s it.
如果我和某人在一起，我只会和那个人说话，仅此而已。
Are you ever in long car rides where you’re not driving, quintessential road trip kind of thing, where you’re in the car for maybe more than two, three hours at a time?
您是否曾经经历过长途汽车旅行，但您不开车，典型的公路旅行之类的事情，您一次在车里的时间可能超过两到三个小时？
Not in the last 10 years.
过去10年没有。
Never.
绝不。
I might be on the train, which is identical to being on the plane.
我可能在火车上，这和在飞机上是一样的。
If I’m driving, I’m driving.
如果我开车，我就开车。
I don’t like listening to podcasts while I drive or anything audio.
我不喜欢开车时听播客或任何音频。
That means music.
这意味着音乐。
Again, it’s pretty simple.
再说一次，这非常简单。
There’s really not any variation there.
那里确实没有任何变化。
What are you hoping to see in Oman?
您希望在阿曼看到什么？
How long are you there for?
你在那里呆了多久？
A couple of days, you said?
你说几天？
Three days total.
总共三天。
I’ve never been here before.
我以前从未来过这里。
I’ve been to quite a bit of the Gulf region and wanted to see the place I haven’t seen.
我去过海湾地区的很多地方，想去看看我没去过的地方。
Oman, like Yemen, was a civilization in the proper sense in a way a lot of the other Gulf states were not.
阿曼和也门一样，是一个真正意义上的文明，而其他许多海湾国家则不然。
There’s a grand and glorious past here.
这里有着辉煌而辉煌的过去。
Oman controlled Zanzibar in the 19th century, or part of it.
阿曼在 19 世纪控制了桑给巴尔或其部分地区。
What’s in the National Museum is beautiful and very impressive.
国家博物馆里的东西很漂亮，令人印象深刻。
People don’t think much about Oman, but it’s an important place.
人们对阿曼的印象并不多，但它是一个重要的地方。
Why not go see it?
为什么不去看呢？
It’s comfortable.
很舒服。
It’s quite safe.
这是相当安全的。
Plenty of people speak decent English.
很多人都能说流利的英语。
There’s no hassles associated with being here.
在这里没有任何麻烦。
The weather’s gorgeous.
天气真好。
It’s not a food country.
这不是一个美食国家。
I’ve had some good food, but you don’t come here for the food, I would say that.
我吃过一些美味的食物，但我会这么说，你来这里不是为了食物。
You come here to see Oman.
你来这里是为了看看阿曼。
Again, for scenery, it’s gorgeous.
再说一次，风景真的很美。
All right.
好的。
With that, let us turn to our shoutouts.
说到这里，让我们转向我们的呐喊。
These are the people who donated above a certain amount.
这些人是捐款超过一定金额的人。
They get their name shouted out, and we’re going to thank them in person right now.
他们的名字被大声喊出，我们现在要亲自感谢他们。
That’s Alexander Walsh, David Kemp, Alexander Zook, Eric Ward, Dennis Sheehan, Clifford Sosin, Jordan Marye, Huy Luong, Alexander Czarnecki, Chet Corcos, Roger Fisher, Mia Shapiro, Charles Marsh, Michael Lumpkin, Hal Sider, Owen Grohman, Matthew Melchione, Leslie Spencer, Manny Roman, Derk Cullinan, Michael Stubel, Christopher Pang, and Paul Shapiro.
他们是亚历山大·沃尔什、大卫·坎普、亚历山大·祖克、埃里克·沃德、丹尼斯·希恩、克利福德·索辛、乔丹·玛丽、Huy Luong、Alexander Czarnecki、Chet Corcos、罗杰·费舍尔、米娅·夏皮罗、查尔斯·马什、迈克尔·伦普金、哈尔·西德、欧文·格罗曼、马修·梅尔基奥内、莱斯利·斯宾塞、曼尼·罗曼、德克·库里南、迈克尔·斯图贝尔、克里斯托弗·庞和保罗夏皮罗。
Thank you all very much for donating.
非常感谢大家的捐赠。
We really appreciate your listenership.
我们非常感谢您的倾听。
In general, I said this before, but the response to the campaign this year has been really awesome.
总的来说，我之前已经说过了，但今年的活动反响非常好。
I want to say thank you to all the listeners who donated, but also just people sending in notes of how much they’ve enjoyed the show.
我想对所有捐款的听众表示感谢，同时也感谢那些发来留言表达他们有多喜欢这个节目的人。
They’re sending me their top and bottom episodes sometimes as well.
他们有时也会向我发送他们的顶部和底部剧集。
I enjoy hearing all of it, so thank you all very much.
我很高兴听到所有这些，所以非常感谢大家。
I thank you all as well.
我也谢谢大家。
It’s very important to me personally that I’m able to continue doing this, so I’m extremely grateful.
能够继续这样做对我个人来说非常重要，所以我非常感激。
All right.
好的。
Before we close, let me shout out the people who are a part of the core CWT production function, all the people who work on the show.
在我们结束之前，让我向 CWT 核心制作部门的成员们大声喊叫，所有为这部剧工作的人。
That’s Dallas Floer, Sam Alburger, Luis Abrigo, Kendra Strawderman, Katie Jester, Jen Whisler, Karen Plante, Haley Larsen, Mary Horan, Sydney Gordon, Ashley Schiller, and many others at Mercatus who have contributed in small ways this year.
其中包括 Dallas Floer、Sam Alburger、Luis Abrigo、Kendra Strawderman、Katie Jester、Jen Whisler、Karen Plante、Haley Larsen、Mary Horan、Sydney Gordon、Ashley Schiller 以及今年在 Mercatus 做出贡献的许多其他人。
Thank you all very much.
非常感谢大家。
Thank you, Tyler, of course.
当然，谢谢你，泰勒。
We look forward to another year, and indeed, a second decade of Conversations with Tyler.
我们期待着新的一年，甚至是与泰勒对话的第二个十年。
Everyone on staff is tremendous.
每个员工都很棒。
I thank you all personally, and keep up the great work.
我个人感谢你们所有人，并继续努力。
You too, Jeff.
你也是，杰夫。
Let’s not forget you.
我们不要忘记你。
Let’s not forget me.
我们不要忘记我。
All right.
好的。
Enjoy your trip, and I’ll see you in the office when you’re back.
祝您旅途愉快，您回来后我们在办公室见。
Take care.
小心。
Bye.
再见。
Bye.
再见。
Photo Credit: Kevin Trimmer
照片来源：凯文·特里默