Conversations with Tyler 2022 Retrospective (Ep. 167)
Hello, everyone, and welcome to this, the 2022 year-in-review episode of Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎收看《与泰勒对话》2022 年回顾集。
I’m Jeff Holmes, one of the producers of Conversations with Tyler.
我是杰夫·霍姆斯，《与泰勒对话》的制片人之一。
This has become a tradition now, where at the end of the year, we take stock of the year in conversations.
现在这已经成为一种传统，在年底，我们在谈话中盘点这一年。
I have a bit of a conversation with Tyler that I want to have.
我想与泰勒进行一些对话。
We take questions from listeners, and we also go back and look at Tyler’s pop culture picks — of 2012, in this case — and Tyler lets us know how he thinks they’ve fared.
我们回答听众的问题，我们还会回顾泰勒的流行文化精选 ——在本例中为 2012 年的流行文化精选——泰勒让我们知道他认为这些流行文化的表现如何。
First, Tyler, let’s get straight into the year of conversations.
首先，泰勒，让我们直接进入这一年的对话。
When you look at this guest list, reflect on this roster of guests compared to years past, what do you think?
当你看到这份嘉宾名单时，对比一下往年的嘉宾名单，你有何感想？
I think we should have more Irish people on.
我认为我们应该有更多的爱尔兰人。
Roy Foster was great.
罗伊·福斯特很棒。
He was a definite favorite.
他绝对是最受欢迎的。
We had two moments that went completely viral, one of which was misunderstood.
我们有两个瞬间完全被疯传，其中之一被误解了。
Shruti was awesome as a host.
Shruti 作为主人非常棒。
Walter Russell Mead throws great dinner parties.
沃尔特·拉塞尔·米德 (Walter Russell Mead) 举办盛大的晚宴。
Mary Gaitskill was a wonderful kind of quirky, and very often, the best guests are not the ones who you think will be the best.
玛丽·盖茨基尔是一个非常古怪的人，很多时候，最好的客人并不是你认为最好的人。
That would be my year’s take in summary.
这就是我这一年的总结。
When you say the moment that went viral but was misunderstood, what are you referring to?
当你说那个被疯传但被误解的时刻时，你指的是什么？
I asked Marc Andreessen about Web 3.0.
我向马克·安德森 (Marc Andreessen) 询问了有关 Web 3.0 的问题。
and everyone on Twitter went crazy about this.
Twitter 上的每个人都为此疯狂。
Marc had a perfectly normal answer to a normal question.
马克对一个正常的问题给出了完全正常的答案。
Now, I’m still not convinced by Web 3.0, and Marc’s answer didn’t convince me.
现在，我仍然不相信 Web 3.0，Marc 的回答也没有让我信服。
But people treated it as some kind of massive, scandalous admission of something, and it was just a normal conversation.
但人们将其视为对某件事的某种大规模的、可耻的承认，而这只是一次正常的谈话。
After it was recorded, I don’t think either Marc or I thought anything about that moment, but somehow that was the time when people wanted to jump down Marc’s throat over something, and they picked up on that clip.
录制完成后，我想马克和我都没有对那一刻有任何想法，但不知何故，就在那时，人们想要跳进马克的喉咙，跳过某件事，然后他们就拿起了那个片段。
I think the best answer to what’s the use case for Web 3.0 is just we don’t know yet.
我认为，对于 Web 3.0 的用例是什么，最好的答案就是我们还不知道。
There are lots of talented people working on it at the moment, as you might have said with the early internet.
正如您可能在早期互联网中所说的那样，目前有很多有才华的人正在研究它。
Now, I’m still skeptical, but it’s not a terrible answer.
现在，我仍然持怀疑态度，但这并不是一个糟糕的答案。
That was the misunderstood viral moment, I would say.
我想说，那是被误解的病毒式传播时刻。
Yes.
是的。
The other viral moment — I think I know what you’re referring to — was the excerpt in the Sam Bankman-Fried conversation, right?
另一个病毒式传播的时刻 ——“我想我知道你指的是什么”—— 是山姆·班克曼-弗里德谈话的摘录，对吗？
That’s correct.
这是正确的。
There are really two of them, but there’s one that’s gotten most of the attention, where I asked Sam, “Would you keep on playing double or nothing with the world’s population at 51-to-49 odds?” He says, “Yes, I feel strongly about this.” And I say, “Everything’s going to be destroyed, then.” And he’s saying, “There’s some chance you’ll end up creating something wonderful.”
确实有两个，但其中一个最受关注，我问 Sam，“如果世界人口的赔率是 51 比 49，你会继续玩双倍游戏还是什么都不玩？”他说：“是的，我对此有强烈的感受。”我说：“那么一切都会被摧毁。”他说，“你最终有可能创造出一些美妙的东西。”
It did seem that captured something about his approach to many different things that was immortalized in that moment.
这似乎确实捕捉到了他处理许多不同事物的方法，并在那一刻永垂不朽。
If I may sound self-satisfied for just a second, I was very pleased that I had the insight to ask him exactly that question.
如果我听起来有点自我满足的话，我很高兴我有洞察力问他这个问题。
We got several questions on Twitter about the SBF conversation.
我们在 Twitter 上收到了一些有关 SBF 对话的问题。
Joseph Walker specifically asked, “Before everything unraveled, in the moment, did you think that that 51–49 question was a red flag?”
约瑟夫·沃克特别问道：“在一切真相大白之前，你是否认为 51-49 的问题是一个危险信号？”
I’ll add onto that, how did your perception of SBF change during the interview, right when everything was unfolding, when that tweet went viral, and now we’re in the middle of December — he’s just arrested.
我要补充一点，在采访期间，当一切都在展开，当那条推文像病毒一样传播时，你对 SBF 的看法发生了怎样的变化，而现在已经是 12 月中旬了——他刚刚被捕。
How have you shifted in your mental model of SBF?
您的 SBF 心智模式是如何转变的？
Well, SBF was and is extremely smart.
嗯，SBF 过去和现在都非常聪明。
He proved that in the interview.
他在采访中证明了这一点。
Anything you can throw at him, he can come back very quickly.
无论你向他扔什么，他都能很快回来。
Maybe you don’t like the answer, but he has fully understood the question and answered it in some manner.
也许你不喜欢这个答案，但他已经完全理解了这个问题并以某种方式回答了它。
Actually, not that many guests can do that.
事实上，能做到这一点的客人并不多。
But at the same time, then and obviously now, it seemed to me there was something quite reckless about the plan.
但与此同时，无论是当时还是现在，我都觉得这个计划有些鲁莽。
I didn’t at all imagine how things turned out.
我根本没想到事情会变成这样。
I just thought there was this view that FTX could become the exchange for everything, that that belief seemed to me absurd, and that if I asked him some questions about risk tolerance, I thought he wouldn’t be able to answer them well.
我只是觉得有一种观点认为FTX可以成为一切的交易所，这种观点在我看来很荒谬，如果我问他一些关于风险承受能力的问题，我认为他无法很好地回答。
He answered them incorrectly — “Oh, keep playing double or nothing” — but he answered them very well in the sense the response was immediate.
他错误地回答了他们——“哦，继续玩双倍，否则什么都不玩”——但他回答得很好，因为反应是立即的。
The reasoning was, in some screwy way, internally consistent.
从某种程度上来说，这个推理在内部是一致的。
He had thought about it before, and so on.
他之前也想过，等等。
That made me less optimistic about his future prospects.
这让我对他的未来前景不太乐观。
The prediction I was making privately at the time was simply that he had ignored regulatory risk.
我当时私下做出的预测很简单，就是他忽视了监管风险。
At some point, the regulators would shut him down, the value of the concern would go essentially to zero, and it wouldn’t work.
在某个时候，监管机构会关闭他，担忧的价值将基本上为零，这是行不通的。
But again, I had no sense of the underlying — I don’t even know what to call it — fraud is too simple a word, but let’s just say the shenanigans.
但话又说回来，我对背后的事情一无所知 ——“我什至不知道该怎么称呼它”——“欺诈这个词太简单了，但我们只说那些恶作剧吧。”
One of the things that I appreciated was he mentioned this need to focus on operationalizing what you’re trying to do, and having people who can coordinate and make things happen.
我欣赏的一件事是他提到需要专注于将你正在尝试做的事情付诸实施，并拥有能够协调并使事情发生的人。
Then, as I’ve seen what’s happened, it seems like a big part of the problem was that, operationally, they were a mess.
然后，正如我所看到的，问题的很大一部分似乎在于，他们在操作上一团糟。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
He said, “That is what is truly scarce.” He actually had a deeper understanding of the scarcity of good operational talent than I realized at the time.
他说：“这才是真正稀缺的东西。”事实上，他对优秀运营人才稀缺性的理解比我当时意识到的更深刻。
The other thing he said that reads very differently in retrospect — when he praised Elon Musk and said, “Elon’s greatest achievement is not Tesla the car, but Tesla the brand.” That’s interesting for at least two reasons.
他所说的另一句话现在回想起来有很大不同——当他赞扬埃隆·马斯克时说，“埃隆最伟大的成就不是特斯拉汽车，而是特斯拉这个品牌。”这很有趣，至少有两个原因。
First, Tesla the brand has changed quite a bit since Elon took over Twitter in many people’s eyes, but also the sense that what a company really is is just its image, and you can skate along with that.
首先，自从埃隆接管 Twitter 以来，特斯拉这个品牌在很多人眼中已经发生了很大的变化，但人们也感觉到，一家公司真正的本质只是它的形象，你可以顺其自然。
I really did not pick up at the time that’s what he was saying, though it’s quite clear when you read it that I should have picked it up at the time.
我当时确实没有听懂他说的话，尽管当你读到它时很清楚我当时应该听懂。
When you re-read it in light of what’s happened, you get a sense of uh-oh, he presumably thought that way about FTX.
当你根据发生的事情重新阅读它时，你会有一种呃哦的感觉，他可能对 FTX 也是这么想的。
As long as the brand was strong, he could always somehow trade his way out of trouble.
只要品牌强大，他总能通过交易摆脱困境。
One effect of the fallout with FTX has been on the effective altruism community, in particular, Will MacAskill, who’s a guest on the podcast.
FTX 的影响之一是对有效的利他主义社区的影响，特别是播客嘉宾威尔·麦克阿斯基尔 (Will MacAskill)。
He was involved with some of the FTX philanthropic projects.
他参与了一些 FTX 慈善项目。
One of our guests on Twitter asked, “What do you think is the future of the movement?
我们的一位嘉宾在推特上问道：“你认为这场运动的未来是什么？
Do they need new leadership?
他们需要新的领导吗？
Speaking of branding, how are they going to recover from the fallout with one of the biggest personalities of ‘earn to give’ now being wholly disgraced?”
说到品牌，他们将如何从‘挣钱奉献’的最大人物之一现在完全蒙羞的后果中恢复过来？”
It’s hard for me to say.
我很难说。
Sometimes losing some funding can help a movement because what’s really strong are the ideas.
有时，失去一些资金可以帮助一场运动，因为真正强大的是想法。
If I think of, say, libertarian ideas — they were really very strong in the 1970s when there was not much money attached to it, and actually, relatively few people, but you had very strong thinkers.
如果我想到自由主义思想，它们在 20 世纪 70 年代确实非常强大，当时没有太多资金，而且实际上，人也相对较少，但有非常强大的思想家。
You have Milton Friedman, Bob Nozick, others, and a great deal of impact in the late ’70s, throughout the ’80s, some of the ’90s.
米尔顿·弗里德曼 (Milton Friedman)、鲍勃·诺齐克 (Bob Nozick) 等人在 70 年代末、整个 80 年代、甚至 90 年代都有很大影响。
The better-funded movement maybe never matched those achievements.
资金更充足的运动可能永远无法与这些成就相媲美。
I don’t really have a prediction for effective altruism, but I don’t think we should hold this against it.
我对有效的利他主义并没有真正的预测，但我认为我们不应该反对它。
I think leadership at Open Philanthropy is excellent, and whatever virtues or qualms you might have about the movement, it’s continuing.
我认为开放慈善事业的领导力非常出色，无论你对这项运动有什么优点或疑虑，它都会继续下去。
All right, switching back to looking at the year in Conversations, if we run through the numbers, we released 28 episodes this year, so our usual amount plus a few bonus episodes.
好吧，回到《对话》中的年份，如果我们算一下数字，我们今年发布了 28 集，所以是我们平常的数量加上一些奖励集。
That’s counting this one?
就这一个算吗？
That’s counting this one as well.
这也算在内。
Do you have a sense of what the most popular episode of the year was?
你知道今年最受欢迎的剧集是什么吗？
I never have a good sense of this.
我对此一直没有很好的认识。
If you count that viral clip, I’ll say Marc Andreessen.
如果你算上那段病毒式传播的视频，我会说马克·安德森 (Marc Andreessen)。
If you don’t count the viral clip, maybe SBF will overtake all the others, whether or not it has done so yet.
如果你不计算病毒片段，也许SBF会超越所有其他人，不管它是否已经做到了。
Those would be my guesses, but I suspect I’m wrong.
这些是我的猜测，但我怀疑我错了。
Chuck Klosterman maybe was popular.
查克·克洛斯特曼也许很受欢迎。
So, you tell me.
那么，你告诉我吧。
Good guess.
猜得好。
This one is surprising to me.
这一点让我感到惊讶。
We’re looking just at podcast downloads and not overall impressions, so it may well change if we factored those in.
我们只关注播客下载量，而不是整体印象，因此如果我们将这些因素考虑在内，情况很可能会发生变化。
The top downloaded episode this year was Thomas Piketty.
今年下载次数最多的剧集是《托马斯·皮凯蒂》。
Piketty, okay.
皮凯蒂，好吧。
Yes.
是的。
I thought people were a little tired of all that.
我认为人们对这一切有点厌倦了。
I was very surprised by the response to that.
我对此事的反应感到非常惊讶。
It’s the most popular episode this year and most popular episode in terms of the first week of any episode so far.
这是今年最受欢迎的剧集，也是迄今为止所有剧集第一周最受欢迎的剧集。
It was a good episode because you got to see this clash of different points of view, I thought.
我想，这是一个很好的插曲，因为你必须看到不同观点的冲突。
Yes.
是的。
I’m amazed people stuck with it because the audio quality was a little rough.
我很惊讶人们坚持使用它，因为音频质量有点粗糙。
But people stuck with it and were very engaged by that episode.
但人们坚持了下来，并且对那一集非常感兴趣。
I do sense people are liking debate.
我确实感觉到人们喜欢辩论。
My episode with Byron Auguste, which I certainly liked when we did it, but it’s proven to have longer legs than I would have expected.
我和拜伦·奥古斯特的那一集，我们拍的时候我当然很喜欢，但事实证明它的腿比我预期的要长。
It’s just a very clear case of two people debating labor market, value of education, how can we get people without college degrees into jobs in a very stark way.
这只是一个非常明显的例子，两个人在讨论劳动力市场、教育价值、我们如何才能以一种非常鲜明的方式让没有大学学位的人找到工作。
Jeremy Grantham was a bit like that — debating environmental issues in a very stark way, back and forth.
杰里米·格兰瑟姆（Jeremy Grantham）有点像那样——以非常鲜明的方式来回讨论环境问题。
He even apologized at the end for being a little — what was the word he used?
他甚至在最后为自己的“有点”道歉——“他用了什么词？”
Not grumpy, but combative.
不是脾气暴躁，而是好斗。
I was like, “Yes please, bring it on.
我当时想，“是的，请带上它。
Please teach your other guests to push back when they need to.”
请教导其他客人在需要时进行反击。”
Mary Gaitskill, I think, is someone who — not combative, but you said — I think on Twitter, or maybe it was your posts on Marginal Revolution — that this is someone who doesn’t feel the need to impress you, and just is giving you her thoughts on the matter, and doesn’t particularly care whether you think they’re here, there, or anywhere.
我认为玛丽·盖茨基尔是这样一个人： —— 并不好斗，但你说过 —— 我想是在 Twitter 上，或者也许是你在《边际革命》上发布的帖子 —— 这个人并不觉得有必要给你留下深刻印象，只是向你提供她对此事的想法，并且并不特别关心你是否认为他们在这里、那里或任何地方。
It’s just what she thinks, and that’s what we’re here to listen and learn from.
这正是她的想法，这就是我们在这里倾听和学习的内容。
It was one of my favorite moments of the year when she has to end the episode a few minutes early because she’s really hungry and just says that, not some kind of polite excuse.
这是我今年最喜欢的时刻之一，她不得不提前几分钟结束这一集，因为她真的很饿，只是这么说，而不是某种礼貌的借口。
“I’m really hungry.”
“我真的很饿。”
Did we include that in the episode?
我们在剧集中加入了这一点吗？
Yes, we did.
是的，我们做到了。
Yes, I remember listening to that when I was reviewing the episode.
是的，我记得在回顾这一集时听过这个。
You’ve got to keep stuff like that in.
你必须保留这样的东西。
We’re kind of touching on it already, but what are your picks for underrated episodes of this year?
我们已经有点触及它了，但是你会选择哪些今年被低估的剧集呢？
Let me preface that by saying, this year, a pattern I saw was the dispersion has gotten tighter in terms of listens.
首先我要说的是，今年我看到的一个模式是聆听方面的分散性变得更加紧密。
There are really just two tiers this year.
今年实际上只有两层。
There are the people who really got a surge and maybe did 15 percent, 20 percent better than the second tier, but there wasn’t this clear sense of, “Oh, people just didn’t tune in to that one.” Either it was really popular or it was just pretty good.
有些人确实得到了大幅提升，也许比第二梯队的表现好 15%、20%，但并没有这种明确的感觉，“哦，人们只是不喜欢那个。”要么它真的很受欢迎，要么它只是相当不错。
How do you model that?
你如何建模？
That we’re less dependent on external celebrity?
我们不再那么依赖外部名人了？
What I’d like to think is that people are accepting the value of the CWT/Tyler Cowen filter, and they’re giving every episode a chance.
我想认为人们正在接受 CWT/Tyler Cowen 过滤器的价值，并且他们给每一集一个机会。
Now, if I peer deeper into looking at how long people listen to episodes, maybe you’d see more drop-off on some of those less popular episodes, but that’s what I’d like to think — that they’re at least giving everyone a chance.
现在，如果我更深入地研究人们收听剧集的时间，也许你会发现一些不太受欢迎的剧集的销量下降更多，但这就是我想认为的——他们至少给了每个人一个机会。
“If they’re on the show, they’re probably pretty good, so let me at least tune in.”
“如果他们出现在节目中，他们可能会很出色，所以至少让我收听一下。”
Whereas before, I think we had more of a problem where someone — if it was an unknown name, or we’ve talked before about some of the biases people have in terms of women, or actually even people with accents — they might just be like, “Eh, I can’t listen to this.” Maybe that’s not been such a factor this year, but what’s your pick for underrated?
而以前，我认为我们遇到的问题更多的是，有人 ——如果这是一个未知的名字，或者我们之前讨论过人们对女性的一些偏见，甚至是有口音的人 ——他们可能只是说，“呃，我听不懂这个。”也许今年这不是一个重要因素，但你会选择哪些被低估的因素呢？
Vaughn Smith, the polyglot and carpet cleaner, probably is an underrated episode.
沃恩·史密斯（Vaughn Smith）是一位通晓多种语言的地毯清洁工，他的这一集可能被低估了。
The people who listened to it seemed to quite like it.
听过的人似乎都非常喜欢。
I already mentioned Roy Foster.
我已经提到过罗伊·福斯特。
Ireland just doesn’t have that large a population, but that was a great take on Irish history.
爱尔兰人口不多，但这对爱尔兰历史来说是一个很好的诠释。
I liked most of them, I have to say.
我不得不说，我喜欢其中的大多数。
I think a lot of them are properly rated.
我认为他们中的很多人都得到了适当的评价。
I had Roy Foster and Vaughn Smith.
我有罗伊·福斯特和沃恩·史密斯。
I would throw in, if you look at download counts, maybe Lydia Davis a little underperformed, but she still performed well.
我想说，如果你看一下下载量，也许莉迪亚·戴维斯的表现有点差，但她仍然表现得很好。
I personally really enjoyed Walter Russell Mead.
我个人非常喜欢沃尔特·拉塞尔·米德。
Absolutely.
绝对地。
It was just a great back-and-forth.
这只是一次很棒的来回。
You could have him on an endless number of times, and he would always have something to say.
你可以让他无数次地出现，他总是有话要说。
Absolutely.
绝对地。
He’s one of those kinds of guests.
他就是这类客人之一。
Now, speaking of Roy Foster, are you going to accept the Roy Foster challenge to go to Ireland and check out their database and look up the Cowens?
现在，说到罗伊·福斯特，你会接受罗伊·福斯特的挑战去爱尔兰查看他们的数据库并查找考恩斯吗？
That was the one question he wouldn’t engage with you on: Tell me a bit about the Cowen clan.
这是他不会与你讨论的一个问题：告诉我一些关于考恩家族的事情。
That surprised me because they’ve had a Prime Minister Cowen, right?
这让我很惊讶，因为他们有一个考恩总理，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
He would’ve known of him.
他会认识他的。
I think I would sooner fly to Salt Lake City than to Ireland for that purpose.
为此，我想我宁愿飞往盐湖城，也不愿飞往爱尔兰。
I don’t know how I would ever know that it were my Cowens.
我不知道我怎么知道那是我的考恩斯。
Or you could see a bunch of Cowens from, say, some county.
或者你可以看到一群来自某个县的考恩斯。
Well, are they my Cowens?
嗯，他们是我的考恩斯吗？
Are they his Cowens?
他们是他的考恩斯吗？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
What’s the actual bridge?
真正的桥梁是什么？
I think to hire someone who’s worked in Salt Lake City archives would be a better approach than for me to be digging around in a library.
我认为聘请在盐湖城档案馆工作过的人比我在图书馆里翻阅更好。
Or maybe we should get you on Finding Your Roots with Henry Louis Gates.
或者我们应该让你和亨利·路易斯·盖茨一起寻找你的根源。
We’ve asked Henry Louis Gates to be on the show, and he famously hosts Finding Your Roots, where he takes celebrities through their family history.
我们邀请亨利·路易斯·盖茨参加这个节目，他因主持《寻找你的根源》而闻名，他在节目中带领名人回顾他们的家族史。
I think it’s time for a Tyler Cowen episode of Finding Your Roots.
我想是时候看泰勒·考恩的《寻找你的根源》一集了。
I believe mine is quite a New Jersey history with no roots in the South.
我相信我的历史是新泽西州的历史，与南方无关。
Moving on to some more Twitter questions.
继续讨论更多 Twitter 问题。
James Broughel: “I think the Mary Gaitskill interview” — speaking of underrated — “was one of the most interesting of the year, largely because of her genuineness coming through so strongly.
詹姆斯·布劳格尔：“我认为玛丽·盖茨基尔的采访” ——“说到被低估”——“是今年最有趣的采访之一，很大程度上是因为她的真诚表现得如此强烈。
So here’s a question: What makes a guest more genuine or authentic?”
所以这里有一个问题：什么让客人更加真诚或真实？”
I should mention, that’s Mercatus research fellow James Broughel, and also, I believe, you advised his PhD.
我应该提到，那是 Mercatus 研究员 James Broughel，而且，我相信，你指导了他的博士学位。
Correct, yes.
正确，是的。
Jim’s great.
吉姆很棒。
He goes by Jim?
他叫吉姆？
Jim Broughel, I don’t know.
吉姆·布劳格尔，我不知道。
You have to call him James.
你必须叫他詹姆斯。
I can call him Jim.
我可以叫他吉姆。
Being a CEO makes you less authentic.
担任首席执行官会让你变得不那么真实。
Now, one thing about Mary — she’s quite well known as a writer, but the outlets that interview her are not mass media.
现在，关于玛丽的一件事——她作为一名作家而闻名，但采访她的媒体并不是大众媒体。
They’d be places like Bookforum, and she has no fiduciary responsibilities per se.
它们是像图书论坛这样的地方，而她本身没有信托责任。
If people come away with the sense that she’s unusual or quirky, there’s no problem in that for her.
如果人们离开时觉得她不寻常或古怪，那对她来说没有问题。
People who are lone operators tend to be more authentic.
独行者往往更真实。
Vaughn Smith, the polyglot and carpet cleaner, I thought was extremely authentic.
沃恩·史密斯（Vaughn Smith）是一位会说多种语言的地毯清洁工，我认为他非常正宗。
He’s hardly ever done any interviews before.
他以前几乎没有接受过任何采访。
He was extremely articulate, but you just got Vaughn Smith, I’m pretty sure.
他非常善于表达，但我很确定你刚刚得到了沃恩·史密斯。
People who are not used to arguing in the media, not used to being criticized — they approach it more innocently in a good way.
那些不习惯在媒体上争论、不习惯被批评的人——他们会以一种更好的方式更天真地对待它。
Do you think people on Conversations with Tyler .
您认为《与泰勒对话》中的人们吗？
.
。
.
。
well, Ken Burns would be an example of someone.
肯·伯恩斯就是一个例子。
Some people joked on Twitter — and I knew, having worked for him and seen his media interviews — people joked that he had the conversation he wanted to have.
有些人在推特上开玩笑——“我知道，因为我为他工作过，看过他的媒体采访”——人们开玩笑说他进行了他想要的对话。
That is correct.
这是正确的。
Ken is very good at delivering eloquent monologues that may or may not actually relate to the questions he was asked, but he knows how to hit the points he wants to make.
肯非常擅长发表雄辩的独白，这些独白可能与他被问到的问题实际相关，也可能无关，但他知道如何击中他想要表达的观点。
He’s, to my mind, an extreme outlier in the sense that he has a very clear direction he wants to take interview questions, and he’s very good at it, versus other people who are maybe self-conscious, and then all the way on the other side, people who just don’t even think about the fact that they’re on the podcast.
在我看来，他是一个极端的异类，因为他有一个非常明确的方向，他想接受采访问题，而且他非常擅长，而不是其他可能有自我意识的人，然后一直在另一边，那些人甚至没有想到他们在播客上的事实。
Do you have a sense of that in the interview?
采访中你有这样的感觉吗？
Are they very aware that “This is going out to a lot of people and I need to be — ”
他们是否非常清楚“这会影响到很多人，而我需要 - ”
People forget that often as they’re speaking.
人们在说话时经常忘记这一点。
Now, you know Ken and I don’t, other than that interview, but I have the sense that maybe that was the authentic Ken Burns, right?
现在，你知道肯和我不知道，除了那次采访，但我有一种感觉，也许那是真正的肯·伯恩斯，对吧？
It is the authentic Ken Burns.
这是正宗的肯伯恩斯。
That is how he is, yes.
他就是这样，是的。
So, in a way, he was the most authentic guest, though it would not have appeared that way to someone who didn’t know better.
所以，在某种程度上，他是最真实的客人，尽管对于不了解情况的人来说，他不会是这样的。
Yes.
是的。
I can say, as someone who listened to him — I worked in the production house where he was editing films.
我可以说，作为一个听过他的人 —— 我在他剪辑电影的制片厂工作。
And when he was talking about reviewing a cut of a movie and talking about what needed to change, he is just as eloquent talking about something on the fly that needs to change in a movie, recalling very specific details from what are often three-, four-hour cuts of what needs to be cut down to maybe an hour, hour and a half.
当他谈论审查电影剪辑并谈论需要改变的内容时，他同样雄辩地谈论电影中需要改变的东西，回忆起通常三、四个小时的剪辑中需要削减到可能一个小时、一个半小时的非常具体的细节。
He has an amazing mind for that and can deliver that on the fly very eloquently.
他对此有着惊人的头脑，并且能够非常雄辩地立即表达出来。
So, yes, you’re absolutely right.
所以，是的，你是完全正确的。
That actually is very authentic Ken.
这实际上是非常真实的肯。
I thought John Adams, the American composer, was also quite authentic.
我觉得美国作曲家约翰·亚当斯也很正宗。
He was willing to be grumpy, to complain about film music, to say the music of Boulez is a torture to listen to.
他愿意发脾气，抱怨电影音乐，说布列兹的音乐听起来是一种折磨。
I’m pretty sure it’s what he really thinks.
我很确定这就是他的真实想法。
He didn’t have to say those things.
他不必说那些话。
He was polished, but I felt you got the actual grumpiness of the man.
他很优雅，但我觉得你看到了这个人真正的脾气暴躁。
Yes.
是的。
John Adams was fun for me.
约翰·亚当斯对我来说很有趣。
I told you before the fact that one thing that I find fascinating about John Adams is that I discovered him because his music was featured in the game Civilization IV.
我之前告诉过你，约翰·亚当斯让我着迷的一件事是我发现他是因为他的音乐出现在游戏《文明 IV》中。
In that game, you build a civilization, and there are different eras, and when you get to the modern era, they play John Adams music.
在那个游戏中，你建立了一个文明，有不同的时代，当你进入现代时代时，他们播放约翰·亚当斯的音乐。
I found it so immersive and perfect.
我发现它是如此身临其境和完美。
When you asked him that question in his interview, he thought about some commercial where his music —
当你在采访中问他这个问题时，他想到了一些广告，其中他的音乐 -
He was very upset about the commercial, but he didn’t respond to the game.
他对广告感到非常不安，但没有对游戏做出回应。
It’s just fascinating because I don’t think he actually cares that much, but there is a whole generation of people, probably about my age, who love John Adams music because of the game Civilization IV.
这很有趣，因为我认为他实际上并不太关心，但有一整代人，可能和我年龄相仿，因为《文明 IV》游戏而喜欢约翰·亚当斯的音乐。
It’s his largest audience by far, right?
这是迄今为止他最大的观众，对吧？
Yes.
是的。
His saltiness — I’m good with that.
他的咸味 —— 我对此很满意。
I still enjoy the music, and I enjoy listening.
我仍然喜欢音乐，我喜欢听。
I enjoy recalling that time in my life as well.
我也很喜欢回忆生命中的那段时光。
It brings me back.
它让我回想起。
It’s very vivid for me.
这对我来说非常生动。
Josef Yau: “On which topics do your views have the highest error rates?
Josef Yau：“您在哪些话题上的观点错误率最高？
Why?”
为什么？
Error rates.
错误率。
What are the topics that are hard to predict?
哪些话题是难以预测的？
Who’s going to win a contest?
谁会赢得比赛？
In most areas, it’s hard to predict.
在大多数地区，很难预测。
Not in chess.
不是象棋。
Magnus Carlsen just played Caruana.
马格努斯·卡尔森刚刚扮演卡鲁阿纳。
He beat him 22 to 4 and didn’t lose a single game.
他以22比4击败了他，并且没有输掉一局。
That was not hard to predict.
这并不难预测。
The margin of victory was hard to predict, but not that Magnus would win.
胜负很难预测，但马格努斯不会赢。
But if you were to ask me who will win the NBA title this coming year — very hard to predict.
但如果你问我明年谁会赢得 NBA 总冠军 —— 很难预测。
The history of China is very hard to predict.
中国的历史很难预测。
Switching from zero COVID to COVID free-for-all, I was not predicting.
我没有预料到从零新冠病毒到新冠病毒免费的转变。
I don’t think I got that wrong publicly, but I know in my own mind, I wasn’t expecting that.
我不认为我在公开场合犯了错误，但我知道我自己并没有预料到这一点。
China, in general, does very rapid shifts that are hard to predict in advance in a way, say, that India does not.
总的来说，中国的转变非常迅速，很难提前预测，而印度则不然。
My backup answer after sports would be China is very hard for me or, indeed, anyone to predict.
体育比赛结束后我的备用答案是中国，这对我来说，或者说，事实上，对任何人来说都很难预测。
Pavel Grachev asks, “Who would you love to have on your podcast but can’t because of a language barrier?”
帕维尔·格拉乔夫 (Pavel Grachev) 问道：“您希望谁出现在您的播客中，但由于语言障碍而不能？”
It seems to me from what I’ve seen on YouTube that Michel Houellebecq does not speak English very well.
从我在 YouTube 上看到的内容来看，米歇尔·维勒贝克 (Michel Houellebecq) 的英语说得不太好。
I’m not sure how good a guest he would be, but I would love to have him in any case, just to see what he would be like.
我不确定他会是一个多么好的客人，但无论如何我很想邀请他，只是想看看他会是什么样子。
And there, possibly, language is a barrier.
在那里，语言可能是一个障碍。
Various rural Mexicans I know whose first language is Nahuatl, but even in Spanish, I don’t think I would quite be good enough to make for a satisfying podcast, and most of our listeners don’t understand Spanish anyway, I’m pretty sure.
我认识的许多墨西哥农村人的母语是纳瓦特尔语，但即使是西班牙语，我也不认为我足以制作一个令人满意的播客，而且我很确定我们的大多数听众无论如何也听不懂西班牙语。
So, they would be some fascinating guests, but there would be logistical difficulties.
因此，他们将是一些令人着迷的客人，但会存在后勤方面的困难。
The people I might interview in German pretty much all speak good enough English if we want to do them.
如果我们愿意的话，我可能用德语采访的人几乎都会说足够好的英语。
Those would be some answers.
这些将是一些答案。
Related, Corey Paddock: “Who are the guests you’d like to have but were unable to secure?”
相关的，科里·帕多克（Corey Paddock）：“您想要但无法邀请的客人是谁？”
Paul McCartney.
保罗·麦卡特尼.
Everyone knows that.
每个人都知道这一点。
You don’t even know how to ask him, but you also figure he’s just not going to do it.
你甚至不知道如何问他，但你也认为他不会这么做。
He’s Paul McCartney.
他是保罗·麦卡特尼。
I pulled up the lists.
我拿出了清单。
We have reached out to many, many guests who we either haven’t heard a response to or they’ve said no. Just going through some of the highlights: Charles Barkley, David Bentley Hart, William Shatner, Tilda Swinton, Haruki Murakami.
我们已经联系了很多很多客人，但我们要么没有收到回复，要么他们拒绝了。只是回顾一些亮点：查尔斯·巴克利、大卫·本特利·哈特、威廉·夏特纳、蒂尔达·斯文顿、村上春树。
Let’s try Shatner again because he has a new book out.
让我们再试试沙特纳，因为他出了一本新书。
I think we did.
我想我们做到了。
Yes, we did.
是的，我们做到了。
We checked after the new book came out.
新书出版后我们查了一下。
Mark Cuban; MrBeast, the YouTuber; Dolly Parton.
马克·库班； MrBeast，YouTuber；多莉·帕顿。
Oh, she would have been great.
哦，她会很棒的。
How about the Thai film director whose name I can’t pronounce?
那位我叫不出来名字的泰国电影导演怎么样？
He just did Memoria, and he did Uncle Boonmee.
他刚刚拍了《记忆》，还拍了《布米叔叔》。
Why don’t we ask him?
我们为什么不问他呢？
He does speak English.
他确实会说英语。
Okay, real-time guest suggestions going on.
好的，实时宾客建议正在进行中。
That would be a coup to get him.
得到他将是一个妙计。
I suspect he’s not asked all that often, and he might be quite authentic.
我怀疑他并没有经常被问到，而且他可能很真实。
Werner Herzog would be another name.
沃纳·赫尔佐格是另一个名字。
Hans Zimmer, Peter Zeihan, Stanley Tucci.
汉斯·季默、彼得·泽汉、斯坦利·图齐。
Actually, early this morning, you released a bleg on Marginal Revolution and asked for guest ideas.
事实上，今天一早，你发布了一篇关于《边际革命》的文章，并征求了嘉宾的想法。
We’ve got some good new ideas, but some of those names have either been asked, or they’ve been on our long list.
我们有一些好的新想法，但其中一些名字要么被问到，要么已经在我们的长长的名单上。
Before the recording, Tyler and I were talking about triaging some of those and reaching out.
在录音之前，泰勒和我正在讨论对其中一些进行分类并进行联系。
What’s wrong with these people?
这些人怎么了？
Seriously, what’s your theory?
说真的，你的理论是什么？
Some are afraid?
有的害怕？
Some are too busy?
有些人太忙了？
I think the standard filter is if it’s not coming through a personal connection, don’t even bother with it.
我认为标准的过滤器是，如果不是通过个人关系，就不要理会它。
I doubt some of these have actually gotten to the actual person.
我怀疑其中一些是否真的传到了真人身上。
If you’re listening to this, and you have a connection to any of the names we mentioned or just someone you think would be good for the podcast, please reach out.
如果您正在收听此节目，并且您与我们提到的任何名字有联系，或者只是您认为对播客有利的人，请联系我们。
I am .
我是 。
Send me an email because we’d love some personal connections with some of these people.
请给我发送电子邮件，因为我们希望与其中一些人建立一些个人联系。
They can email me, too.
他们也可以给我发电子邮件。
Either way.
无论哪种方式。
It’s online.
它在线。
It’s online.
它在线。
Moving back to Twitter questions.
回到 Twitter 问题。
I want you to answer this rapid-fire because it’s .
我希望你能快速回答这个问题，因为它是。
.
。
.
。
Just answer this as quickly as you can.
请尽快回答这个问题。
It’s kind of a grab-bag question.
这是一个抓包的问题。
Vikash Palit: There are three questions.
Vikash Palit：有三个问题。
“What are the pluses and minuses of ending the Fed?
“结束美联储有哪些优点和缺点？
What are the top three ways you would change the US healthcare system?
您最想改变美国医疗保健系统的三种方式是什么？
What’s the ideal tax system look like, according to you?”
您认为理想的税收制度是什么样的？”
In reverse order, the ideal tax system is a progressive consumption tax with a relatively light rate of taxation on capital income, though it can’t be zero because otherwise, people will reclassify their labor income into capital income.
相反，理想的税制是累进消费税，对资本收入的税率相对较轻，但不能为零，否则人们会将劳动收入重新分类为资本收入。
Best ways to change the healthcare system.
改变医疗保健系统的最佳方法。
A lot of that is frozen into place.
其中很多都被冻结了。
I’m more focused in my current roles on improving the rate of progress in science and getting more innovation and reforming the NIH and NSF and making them more dynamic and quicker to respond to change.
我目前的职责更专注于提高科学进步速度，获得更多创新，改革 NIH 和 NSF，使它们更有活力、更快地应对变化。
People don’t usually call that the healthcare system, but that would be my emphasis.
人们通常不称之为医疗保健系统，但这将是我的重点。
If you look at, say, the mRNA vaccines or what seems to be coming against malaria, against dengue, possibly against cancer — that’s yielding huge dividends.
如果你看看 mRNA 疫苗或似乎能对抗疟疾、登革热，甚至可能对抗癌症的疫苗，就会产生巨大的红利。
Fighting over the scraps of Medicaid expansion or something ultimately seems to me like a misallocation of talent.
在我看来，为医疗补助扩张或其他什么事情而争论最终就像是人才的错配。
Ending the Fed.
结束美联储。
Well, what do you replace it with?
那么，你用什么来代替它呢？
You can’t answer that question in the abstract, but I suspect what you replace it with will not do better.
你无法抽象地回答这个问题，但我怀疑你用什么来代替它不会做得更好。
The price of gold is much too volatile to have a gold standard now, even if you liked the classical gold standard.
即使您喜欢古典金本位制，黄金价格的波动性也太大了，现在无法建立金本位制。
I’m not sure it was better than the Fed, but it wouldn’t be workable now.
我不确定它比美联储更好，但现在行不通了。
And what, Bitcoin?
什么，比特币？
That’s a non-starter.
那是不可能的。
So, replace the Fed with what?
那么，用什么来取代美联储呢？
Just a frozen stock of dollars?
只是冻结的美元库存？
Again, seems to me worse than what we have now.
在我看来，这又比我们现在的情况更糟糕。
All right, Vikash, you got your answer.
好吧，维卡什，你已经得到答案了。
Answers.
答案。
Answers.
答案。
Marc Bisbal Arias: “What is the thing you are most excited about or looking forward to next year?”
Marc Bisbal Arias：“明年你最兴奋或最期待的事情是什么？”
The next 28 guests on Conversations with Tyler.
《Conversations with Tyler》的接下来 28 位嘉宾。
Could it be anything better?
还能有更好的吗？
Paul McCartney walking into the studio, singing “Maybe I’m Amazed” for us, and we’re the ones who are amazed.
保罗·麦卡特尼走进录音室，为我们唱着《也许我很惊讶》，而我们才是感到惊讶的人。
Next year 28 guests, Paul McCartney, Brian Eno, Werner Herzog, they’re all coming in.
明年将有 28 位嘉宾，Paul McCartney、Brian Eno、Werner Herzog，他们都会来。
They will all be in the Mercatus studio.
他们都将在 Mercatus 工作室。
Mark my words.
标记我的话。
Twitter user Breaking Extent asks, “Does Tyler think TV shows are a waste of time?” Have you watched many TV shows this year?
Twitter 用户 Breaking Extent 问道：“泰勒认为电视节目是浪费时间吗？”今年你看了很多电视剧吗？
Well, for whom are they a waste of time?
那么，对于谁来说它们是浪费时间呢？
I haven’t watched a lot of TV this year.
今年我没怎么看电视。
I plan on starting the new Disney+show, Andor.
我计划开始新的迪士尼+节目，Andor。
It’s very good.
非常好。
My other friends told me the same, so I think I’ll like that.
我的其他朋友也这么告诉我，所以我想我会喜欢的。
I don’t know that I found anything good other than the new season of Borgen, which came to the US this year.
除了今年来到美国的新一季《博根》之外，我不知道还有什么好东西。
That was excellent and very different from the earlier years.
这非常好，与前几年有很大不同。
Grumpier, more cynical about politics.
脾气暴躁，对政治更加愤世嫉俗。
You could say more right-wing in the Danish sense, which is not the same as more right-wing in the American sense.
你可以说丹麦意义上的更多右翼，这与美国意义上的更多右翼不同。
That was great, but I think that’s all I’ve really liked or even watched.
太棒了，但我想这就是我真正喜欢甚至看过的一切。
Natasha starts some things, and I turn away quickly.
娜塔莎开始做一些事情，我迅速转身走开。
Most TV — it seems to me, it doesn’t interest me.
大多数电视 ——在我看来，我对它不感兴趣。
I much prefer movies.
我更喜欢电影。
What does Natasha put on that you turn away from?
娜塔莎穿的什么衣服是你不喜欢的？
Do you even recognize what it is?
你知道它是什么吗？
I think there’s some show — is it called Hackers or Hacks?
我认为有一些节目 ——它叫《黑客》还是《黑客》？
Hacks.
黑客。
Hacks.
黑客。
The comedy.
喜剧。
The show about the stand-up comedians?
关于单口喜剧演员的节目？
Is that what you’re thinking?
你是这么想的吗？
I didn’t get far enough.
我还没有走得足够远。
It’s on, I think, HBO Max.
我想，它正在 HBO Max 上播出。
Yes.
是的。
It’s about a kind of an elder statesman female comedian who’s doing her show in Vegas.
这是关于一位年长的政治家女喜剧演员在维加斯表演的故事。
That’s right, yes.
没错，是的。
It seemed to be backed by talent, but it’s just not for me.
它似乎有天赋的支持，但它不适合我。
It’s not informationally dense enough, not challenging enough, somehow constructed to string people along through subsequent seasons, which is the commercial incentive.
它的信息不够密集，不够具有挑战性，以某种方式构建来引导人们度过接下来的季节，这就是商业激励。
I get that.
我明白了。
No grudge held here.
这里没有恩怨。
But I’d rather watch .
但我宁愿看。
.
。
.
。
The movie Tár I loved.
我喜欢的电影《塔尔》。
Memoria I loved.
我喜欢的记忆。
I haven’t seen Tár, but that’s been a big movie this year that people have really, really responded to.
我还没看过《塔尔》，但这是今年人们非常非常反响的一部大电影。
Saint Omer, the French Senegalese movie, was excellent.
法国塞内加尔电影《圣奥梅尔》非常棒。
I saw that a few nights ago at AFI in Silver Spring.
几天前的晚上，我在银泉的 AFI 看到了这一点。
Movies, to me — way above TV, but I don’t think it’s a mistake for most people.
对我来说，电影远远高于电视，但我不认为这对大多数人来说是一个错误。
All right, why don’t we use that as an entrée — we’ll come back to some Twitter questions, but let’s go to 2012 picks and see what your favorite movies were in 2012.
好吧，我们为什么不以此为开场呢 ——我们会回到一些 Twitter 问题，但让我们看看 2012 年精选，看看 2012 年你最喜欢的电影是什么。
In your post, you say, “Hollywood continues to collapse into mediocre tentpole franchises.”
在你的帖子中，你说，“好莱坞继续崩溃，沦为平庸的支柱特许经营权。”
That’s true, so I was correct.
确实如此，所以我是对的。
Which is absolutely true because that was the Marvel decade, among other things.
这绝对是真的，因为那是漫威十年等等。
“Overall, it has been a splendid year for movies.
“总的来说，对于电影来说，这是辉煌的一年。
Here were some of my favorites, noting that I count by the year I saw them, especially for foreign films, not necessarily the year of release.” Here we go.
以下是我最喜欢的一些电影，请注意，我是按观看它们的年份计算的，尤其是外国电影，而不一定是发行年份。”开始了。
One, A Separation.
一，一次分离。
I’ve taught that movie, I think, five times since then, so I rewatch it every year, and it’s incredible.
我想从那以后我已经教过那部电影五次了，所以我每年都会重看它，这真是令人难以置信。
It’s one of the best movies, period.
这是最好的电影之一。
It’s an Iranian movie about a couple who are separated and the difficult decisions they face, what to do with the daughter, and whether or not they should leave Iran.
这是一部伊朗电影，讲述了一对分居的夫妇以及他们面临的艰难决定，如何对待女儿，以及他们是否应该离开伊朗。
A-plus.
A+。
Yes, I watched that on this recommendation and enjoyed that movie.
是的，我根据这个推荐观看了这部电影，并且很喜欢这部电影。
My students love it also.
我的学生也喜欢它。
Two, Jiro Dreams of Sushi.
二、次郎的寿司之梦。
I haven’t re-watched it.
我还没有重新看过。
I have fond memories of it.
我对它有美好的回忆。
I hear people cite it still.
我听到人们仍然引用它。
That’s a good sign about a movie.
对于电影来说，这是一个好兆头。
I’m still very favorably inclined.
我还是非常赞成的。
It’s probably now a little underrated because that style of documentary that was especially so food-focused — but the story itself was very compelling — has now become .
它现在可能有点被低估了，因为那种特别以食物为中心的纪录片风格——“但故事本身非常引人注目”——现在已经成为了。
.
。
.
。
the same filmmakers went on to make a series for Netflix called Chef’s Table, and they’ve taken that format, and now it’s become TV.
这些电影制片人后来为 Netflix 制作了一部名为《厨师的餐桌》的连续剧，他们采用了这种格式，现在它已经成为电视节目。
Now, I think if someone went back and watched Jiro Dreams of Sushi, they would be like, “Well, what’s special about this?
现在，我想如果有人回去看《寿司之二郎之梦》，他们会说，“嗯，这有什么特别的吗？
I can put this up on Netflix at any time.” Here’s someone’s dedication to food and also some story about their biography that reveals why they’re so obsessed or something that gives you insight into why they are the way they are.
我可以随时将其发布到 Netflix 上。”这里有一个人对食物的奉献，还有一些关于他们的传记的故事，这些故事揭示了他们为什么如此痴迷，或者让你深入了解他们为什么是这样的。
I suspect the movie’s more subtle and the TV show is too literal, would be my guess, not having seen the television show.
我怀疑这部电影更加微妙，而电视剧则过于字面化，这是我的猜测，因为我没有看过电视剧。
You don’t have as much time.
你没有那么多时间。
They’re more like vignettes.
它们更像是小插曲。
That was much more of a deeper study, not just of the master chef but also his sons because that was a key part of Jiro Dreams of Sushi, the sons who were, I think, in their 40s but were still in the shadow of their dad.
这是更深入的研究，不仅是对主厨的研究，也是对他的儿子们的研究，因为这是《寿司二郎之梦》的关键部分，我认为这些儿子们已经 40 多岁了，但仍然处于父亲的阴影之下。
Clearly one of the subtexts was, “When is he going to let us step into this role and take on the mantle?”
显然，潜台词之一是，“他什么时候会让我们担任这个角色并承担起这个职责？”
Three, Marley.
三、马利。
Marley.
马利.
Oh, the Bob Marley movie.
哦，鲍勃·马利的电影。
That was fantastic.
那太棒了。
It’s a very long movie set in Jamaica.
这是一部以牙买加为背景的很长的电影。
Excellent.
出色的。
I don’t think you have to love the music of Bob Marley to watch it as a movie.
我认为你不必喜欢鲍勃·马利的音乐才能将其视为电影。
Once Upon a Time in Anatolia, and you added, “Boring for most people, big screen only, I suspect.”
《安纳托利亚往事》，你补充道，“我怀疑，对于大多数人来说，只有大屏幕很无聊。”
I mean, every movie is that, but especially slow-moving foreign films.
我的意思是，每部电影都是这样，尤其是动作缓慢的外国电影。
It’s just much harder to pay attention at home.
只是在家里集中注意力要困难得多。
Again, seemed to me a very strong movie.
在我看来，这又是一部非常强大的电影。
Now that I am hearing these titles, it was just a great year for movies, though not Hollywood movies.
现在我听到这些片名，这对电影来说是伟大的一年，尽管不是好莱坞电影。
Okay, well, here’s where it gets very Tyler Cowen sideways — your next two movies.
好吧，好吧，这就是泰勒·考恩（Tyler Cowen）的侧面 ——你接下来的两部电影。
The next one, The Dictator, which is the Sacha Baron Cohen comedy.
下一部是萨莎·拜伦·科恩的喜剧《独裁者》。
It’s aged poorly, and I think he has aged poorly.
它已经老得很惨了，我认为他也已经老得很惨了。
I was going to ask.
我正想问。
Some of the TV show is still quite good, I think, but —
我觉得有些电视剧还是不错的，但是 ——
You were a big Ali G fan.
你是 Ali G 的忠实粉丝。
Is that your favorite character of his that he does?
这是你最喜欢他饰演的角色吗？
He’s Borat, Ali G, other ones I can’t even remember.
他是波拉特（Borat）、阿里·G（Ali G），还有其他一些我什至不记得了。
Like the mini-episode where he interviews Donald Trump is A-double plus.
就像他采访唐纳德·特朗普的迷你剧集一样，是 A-double plus。
Trump just immediately sees the guy is a fraud and just walks out and says, “Good luck.” The peaks were high, but it’s not really watchable anymore.
特朗普立即看出这个人是个骗子，然后走出去说：“祝你好运。”峰值很高，但已经不再可观看了。
Okay, Dictator, and the next one, The Three Stooges.
好吧，《独裁者》，还有下一部《三个臭皮匠》。
This is the comedy remake of The Three Stooges.
这是《三个臭皮匠》的喜剧翻拍版。
I think it was a Farrelly brothers movie.
我认为这是一部法拉利兄弟的电影。
The original is too good, I think is the problem.
原著太好了，我觉得是问题所在。
I’m very surprised that made your list.
我很惊讶它出现在你的名单中。
I’m just trying to think about what you found in that movie that you were like, “Best of the year.”
我只是想想想你在那部“年度最佳”电影中发现了什么。
Next one, The Raid: Redemption.
下一部，突袭：救赎。
“Better Indonesian martial arts, you will not see,” you say.
“更好的印尼武术，你不会看到，”你说。
Nor have I seen better Indonesian martial arts since then.
从那以后我也没有见过更好的印尼武术。
A thrilling movie.
一部惊心动魄的电影。
You have to be up for that kind of movie, but the best one in a long time in this country.
你必须准备好观看这种类型的电影，但这是这个国家很长一段时间以来最好的一部。
The Raid is a strong favorite of a lot of people I know.
《突袭》是我认识的很多人的最爱。
Your Sister’s Sister.
你姐姐的妹妹。
This is an indie movie with Emily Blunt, Rosemarie DeWitt, Mark Duplass.
这是一部由艾米莉·布朗特、罗丝玛丽·德薇特、马克·杜普拉斯主演的独立电影。
I don’t remember it, so I guess I have to give it a thumbs down.
我不记得了，所以我想我必须对它表示反对。
You say it was Straussian.
你说的是施特劳斯式的。
I’m not familiar with it.
我对此不太熟悉。
Maybe it was too Straussian.
也许这太施特劳斯主义了。
Circo, Mexican circus movie.
Circo，墨西哥马戏电影。
Hasn’t stuck with me.
没有坚持住我。
Okay, let’s go through these.
好的，让我们来看看这些。
You’ve got quite a few of them, so let’s go through them quickly and see if you respond to any of them.
您已经收到了很多这样的问题，所以让我们快速浏览一下它们，看看您是否对其中任何一个做出了回应。
Take This Waltz, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Margaret, which I think is a Margaret Thatcher documentary.
拿这华尔兹、《南方野兽》、《玛格丽特》来说，我认为这是一部玛格丽特·撒切尔的纪录片。
Nope, I’m totally wrong.
不，我完全错了。
That was quite interesting.
那很有趣。
It’s a narrative movie with Anna Paquin.
这是一部由安娜·帕奎因主演的叙事电影。
Yeah.
是的。
Beasts of The Southern Wild really has stuck with me.
《南方狂野的野兽》确实让我难以忘怀。
It’s a portrait of a certain way of life that you find only in America, and this movie shows that way of life better than any other movie.
这是一种只有在美国才能找到的生活方式的写照，这部电影比任何其他电影都更好地展示了这种生活方式。
Ai Weiwei: Never Sorry.
艾未未：从不抱歉。
I think he’s milked it too much at this point and become a marketer, so not the movie as a movie, but all that has gone down in my eyes.
我认为他在这一点上榨取了太多的钱并成为了一名营销人员，所以不是把电影当作电影，而是所有这些都在我眼中消失了。
Not that interesting anymore.
不再那么有趣了。
Samsara — again, another one you say probably only makes sense on the big screen.
轮回 ——又是你说的另一个可能只有在大银幕上才有意义。
Say the name again.
再说一遍名字。
Samsara.
轮回。
I’m looking it up.
我正在查。
“Filmed over a period” — it’s not a narrative movie — “almost five years and in 25 countries, Samsara explores the wonders of the world from sacred grounds to industrial sites.”
“拍摄一段时间” ——这不是一部叙事电影 —— “历时近五年，遍及 25 个国家，《轮回》探索了从圣地到工业场所的世界奇观。”
Oh, that movie.
哦，那部电影。
It’s just visuals, and it’s great as visuals on a large screen, but a huge mistake to click on Netflix.
这只是视觉效果，而且在大屏幕上呈现的视觉效果很棒，但点击 Netflix 就犯了一个巨大的错误。
It’s just not going to do it for you.
它只是不会为你做这件事。
Searching for Sugar Man.
寻找小糖人。
Incredible movie, and I saw him in concert a few years ago.
令人难以置信的电影，几年前我在音乐会上看过他。
He’s the South African star.
他是南非明星。
Well, he’s from Detroit, and he became a huge star in South Africa and didn’t even know it.
好吧，他来自底特律，他在南非成为了巨星，但他自己却不知道。
He learned this quite late in his life because this is a country full of people, a lot of whom worship him.
他很晚才明白这一点，因为这是一个充满人民的国家，很多人崇拜他。
Excellent music in concert, still a wonderful film — unique, original, memorable.
音乐会上的出色音乐，仍然是一部精彩的电影——独特、原创、令人难忘。
Day Night Day Night.
白天晚上白天晚上。
I don’t think I’d ever heard of this movie.
我想我从来没有听说过这部电影。
The description is “a gripping drama that follows a young suicide bomber on a mission to wreak havoc in Times Square.”
描述是“一部扣人心弦的戏剧，讲述了一名年轻的自杀式炸弹袭击者执行在时代广场造成严重破坏的任务。”
It was good, one of these movies that’s focused on one thing and does it well, and some people just don’t get it, but a good movie.
这很好，其中一部专注于一件事并且做得很好的电影，有些人就是不明白，但这是一部好电影。
Then a week or two later, you added Lincoln, the Steven Spielberg movie.
一两周后，你添加了史蒂文·斯皮尔伯格的电影《林肯》。
No, it’s too sappy.
不，这太肉麻了。
It’s aged poorly for me.
对我来说它的年龄很差。
People reacted strongly because Spielberg has this movie coming out, The Fabelmans.
人们反应强烈，因为斯皮尔伯格的这部电影《费贝尔曼一家》即将上映。
Which is excellent, and I thought I would hate.
这太棒了，我想我会讨厌的。
I saw the preview.
我看了预告。
The preview was unwatchable.
预告看不下去了。
The marketing for it is generally considered really too poor to give you a sense of what the movie is.
人们普遍认为它的营销太差了，无法让你了解这部电影是什么。
But you also gave a brief Spielberg ranking.
但你也给出了斯皮尔伯格的简短排名。
I think in particular, you suggested that some of his most commercially successful, like Jurassic Park, are his worst movies.
我特别认为，你认为他的一些最商业上最成功的电影，比如《侏罗纪公园》，是他最糟糕的电影。
That’s right, and E.T.
没错，E.T.
is not very good.
不太好。
I’m with you more on E.T.
我在《E.T.》上更多地支持你。
But Jurassic Park?
但是侏罗纪公园呢？
The novel is better.
小说更好看。
It seemed to me too Hollywood, too manipulative.
在我看来，这太好莱坞了，太具有操纵性了。
The special effects are now completely out of date, and that made the movie so much —
特效现在已经完全过时了，这才让这部电影如此 ——
Actually, that’s one of the things that people think aged well, is the special effects.
事实上，人们认为老化的原因之一就是特效。
There are definitely moments, but because of the mix of practical and special, it’s aged pretty well.
肯定有一些时刻，但由于实用性和特殊性的结合，它已经过时了。
You’re wrong on that, Tyler.
你错了，泰勒。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I will absolutely agree with you, though.
不过，我绝对同意你的观点。
I’m glad we managed to bring Michael Crichton into this because Crichton, who wrote Jurassic Park and Lost World and many other science fiction stories — by far, my favorite author as a kid.
我很高兴我们设法让迈克尔·克莱顿参与其中，因为克莱顿写了《侏罗纪公园》和《失落的世界》以及许多其他科幻故事 ——到目前为止，他是我小时候最喜欢的作家。
I loved Michael Crichton, and I loved those books, and I still love Jurassic Park the movie.
我喜欢迈克尔·克莱顿，喜欢那些书，而且我仍然喜欢《侏罗纪公园》这部电影。
Lost World is another story.
失落的世界是另一个故事。
He was a tremendous art collector, and he wrote a great book on Jasper Johns.
他是一位出色的艺术收藏家，还写了一本关于贾斯珀·琼斯的伟大著作。
He would have been a first-rate CWT guest.
他会是 CWT 的一流客人。
Yes, absolutely.
是的，绝对是。
I actually emailed you.
我实际上给你发了电子邮件。
This is before I worked at Mercatus, but when Michael Crichton died, I emailed you and asked you if you would write anything, and I think you said, “Nothing particular is occurring to me to say that would be of any value.” But I loved Michael Crichton.
这是我在 Mercatus 工作之前的事，但当迈克尔·克莱顿 (Michael Crichton) 去世后，我给你发了一封电子邮件，问你是否愿意写点什么，我想你说的是：“我没有想到什么特别的事情可以说这有任何价值。”但我喜欢迈克尔·克莱顿。
Sphere is a wonderful book.
《球体》是一本很棒的书。
Quite underrated now.
现在被严重低估了。
Yes.
是的。
I think you’ve said it was one of your favorites.
我想你已经说过这是你的最爱之一。
Maybe my favorite, yes.
也许是我最喜欢的，是的。
What do you think of the movie Sphere?
你觉得《球体》这部电影怎么样？
I didn’t want to see it because it would wreck the book for me.
我不想看它，因为它会毁了我的书。
It got so-so reviews.
它得到了马马虎虎的评价。
Yes.
是的。
I just stuck with the book.
我只是坚持看书。
Andromeda Strain, of course.
当然是仙女座菌株。
Yes, quite relevant.
是的，非常相关。
Okay, and then the last one you added was Life of Pi.
好的，您添加的最后一个是《少年派的奇幻漂流》。
I would like to see it again.
我还想再看一遍。
I found it engaging at the time.
我当时就觉得很吸引人。
A lot of smart people I know turned against the movie.
我认识的很多聪明人都反对这部电影。
Maybe it’s too manipulative or too corny or, in some way, condescending toward India or maybe Bollywood, but it touched me nonetheless.
也许它太操纵性或太老套，或者在某种程度上居高临下地对待印度或宝莱坞，但它仍然触动了我。
I think it’s probably still a good movie.
我想这可能仍然是一部好电影。
I didn’t watch the movie, and I didn’t particularly enjoy the book.
我没看过电影，也不是特别喜欢这本书。
It was obviously a big book.
这显然是一本大书。
I don’t love the book, so that’s why it took me so long to see the movie.
我不喜欢这本书，所以这就是我花了这么长时间才看这部电影的原因。
Okay.
好的。
Moving on to books.
继续看书。
Favorite fiction?
最喜欢的小说？
Gillian Flynn, Gone Girl.
吉莉安·弗林，《消失的爱人》。
Well, it’s become really quite famous.
嗯，它真的变得很有名了。
It’s fun and engaging and totally manipulative.
它很有趣、引人入胜，而且完全具有操控性。
But it’s become a thing, and I think that I picked it is to my credit, if I may say.
但它已经成为一件事，如果我可以说的话，我认为我选择它是我的功劳。
We’ve either considered her or outright asked her to be on CWT.
我们要么考虑过她，要么直接要求她加入 CWT。
I’d have to check my notes.
我得检查一下我的笔记。
Gone Girl — I have read the book.
《消失的爱人》—— 我读过这本书。
I’ve read the screenplay, which she also wrote, and I’ve watched the movie.
我读过她写的剧本，也看过电影。
Sometimes I do that to just see, how do you adapt something, especially if it’s the same author.
有时我这样做只是为了看看你如何改编某些东西，特别是如果是同一位作者的话。
It’s interesting, the choices you have to make going from novel to screenplay and then seeing what actually made it to screen.
有趣的是，你必须做出从小说到剧本的选择，然后看看到底是什么被搬上了银幕。
Next one, Nell Freudenberger, The Newlyweds.
下一部，内尔·弗罗伊登伯格，《新婚夫妇》。
Eh, forgotten.
呃，忘记了。
Alonso Cueto, The Blue Hour.
阿隆索·奎托，《蓝色时刻》。
Peruvian, excellent novel.
秘鲁人，优秀的小说。
Peruvian literature is a thing underrated.
秘鲁文学被低估了。
Not all of it’s translated.
并不是所有内容都被翻译了。
I have a few in Spanish in my pile to read, but it takes me so long, I don’t know when I’ll get to them.
我有一些西班牙语的书要读，但我花了很长时间，我不知道什么时候才能读到它们。
But that’s a very good book.
但这是一本非常好的书。
Peter Sis, The Conference of the Birds.
彼得·西斯，《鸟类会议》。
You say it’s “mostly illustrated, beautiful in any case.”
你说它“大部分都是插图，无论如何都很漂亮”。
That’s the old Persian poem.
这是一首古老的波斯诗。
I think so.
我想是的。
Let me look it up.
让我查一下。
This is “Celebrated children’s book author .
这是“著名儿童读物作家”。
.
。
.
。
his first book for adults, a beautiful and uplifting adaptation of the classic 12th-century Sufi epic poem.” You’re right.
他的第一本成人书，改编自 12 世纪经典苏菲派史诗，优美而令人振奋。”你说得对。
Yes, and that’s a wonderful poem, definitely recommend it.
是的，这是一首很棒的诗，绝对推荐它。
There’s a new translation of that that came out a year or two ago.
一两年前出版了该书的新译本。
That’s also very good.
这也很好。
Alice Munro, Dear Life: Stories.
艾丽丝·门罗，《亲爱的生活：故事》。
She’s a A++.
她是A++。
Read everything by her, one of the deepest writers and thinkers.
阅读她的所有作品，她是最深刻的作家和思想家之一。
You said, “I can confidently put this on my list without having read it yet.”
你说：“我可以自信地把它放在我的清单上，而无需阅读它。”
I was right.
我是对的。
Then you add, “I was disappointed by most of the well-known novels to have come out this year, including the Tom Wolfe (unreadable, alas)” — I’m not sure which one that was — “and McEwan (OK but not distinguished).
然后你补充道，“我对今年出版的大部分知名小说感到失望，包括汤姆·沃尔夫（Tom Wolfe）（唉，无法阅读）” - 我不确定是哪一本 - “和麦克尤恩（好吧，但不杰出）。
Mantel is somehow too dense for me, and I do not enjoy it.
曼特尔对我来说太浓密了，我不喜欢它。
The fault may be mine.”
错可能是我的。”
I’d rather read history than her stuff.
我宁愿读历史也不愿读她的东西。
Sad to say that in a year when she passed away, but it never clicked with me.
遗憾的是，在她去世的那一年，我就这样说，但我从来没有想到过这一点。
All right, favorite nonfiction books.
好吧，最喜欢的非小说类书籍。
First one, Charles Murray, Coming Apart: The State of White America, 1960–2010.
第一篇，查尔斯·默里（Charles Murray），《分崩离析：美国白人状况，1960-2010》。
It’s now so well-known, but it was quite ahead of its time, and the notion that parts of the nation were, in some way, coming apart, he completely nailed.
它现在已经广为人知，但它相当超前于时代，而且他完全理解了这个国家的部分地区正在以某种方式分崩离析的观念。
That’s an important book, and he was right on target, and he gets full credit for that one.
这是一本重要的书，他的目标是正确的，他因此得到了充分的赞扬。
But do you need to read it now?
但你现在需要读吗？
You’ve heard it too many times.
你已经听过太多次了。
I would say, in that sense, no, but definitely a big hit for Murray.
我想说，从这个意义上说，不，但对穆雷来说绝对是一个巨大的打击。
You’ve got a lot of these.
你有很多这些。
Let me run through these fast.
让我快速浏览一下这些内容。
You can say anything if anything jumps out.
如果有什么事情跳出来你可以说什么。
David Hackett Fisher, Fairness and Freedom: A History of Two Open Societies: New Zealand and the United States.
大卫·哈克特·费舍尔，《公平与自由：两个开放社会的历史：新西兰和美国》。
Everything by him is great, and we should consider having him on as a guest.
他的一切都很棒，我们应该考虑邀请他作为嘉宾。
Some people recommended that in the comments today.
今天有人在评论中推荐了这一点。
Oh, there you go.
哦，就这样吧。
George Dyson, Turing’s Cathedral: The Origins of the Digital Universe.
乔治·戴森，《图灵大教堂：数字宇宙的起源》。
I wonder how that would look today.
我想知道今天会是什么样子。
I think good, but there’s been enough other books that it’s not so special anymore.
我认为很好，但有足够多的其他书，它不再那么特别了。
Probably, you don’t need to read it, but I think it’s still fine.
也许你不需要读它，但我认为它仍然很好。
Jon Gertner, The Idea Factory: Bell Labs and the Great Age of American Innovation.
乔恩·格特纳（Jon Gertner），《创意工厂：贝尔实验室与美国创新的伟大时代》。
Great topic, great book.
很棒的话题，很棒的书。
Excellent author.
优秀的作者。
More important than before, because the corporate lab has appeared increasingly important with time.
比以前更重要，因为随着时间的推移，企业实验室显得越来越重要。
Michael Dirda, On Conan Doyle: Or, The Whole Art of Storytelling.
迈克尔·迪达（Michael Dirda），《论柯南·道尔：或者说，讲故事的全部艺术》。
I’m a big fan of Sherlock Holmes.
我是夏洛克·福尔摩斯的忠实粉丝。
That’s a good book.
这是一本好书。
Dirda is a very smart guy.
迪尔达是一个非常聪明的人。
I love his stuff for The Post.
我喜欢他为《华盛顿邮报》写的东西。
Yes, it’s good.
是的，这很好。
James Fallows, China Airborne.
詹姆斯·法洛斯，中国空降兵。
It is out of date, but at the time, it was, in some ways, the best analysis of the problems in China and Chinese business.
它已经过时了，但在当时，它在某些方面是对中国和中国商业问题的最好分析。
Different ways in which lack of trust meant you could not manufacture certain very high-quality goods.
缺乏信任意味着你无法生产某些非常高质量的产品。
Again, it is fairly out of date, but still an excellent book for its time.
再说一次，它已经相当过时了，但在当时仍然是一本优秀的书。
Greg Woolf, Rome: An Empire’s Story.
格雷格·伍尔夫，《罗马：帝国的故事》。
So many Rome books.
这么多罗马书。
Somewhat forgotten, but I don’t mean that as a slight.
有点忘记了，但我并不是说这是轻微的。
It was probably quite good.
可能已经相当不错了。
Reach out to Tyler for your blurb on the next Rome book.
请联系泰勒，获取有关下一本书《罗马》的简介。
“So many Rome books.”
“这么多罗马书。”
Look, the number of sources is limited.
看吧，来源的数量是有限的。
So there’s new archeology, but until we read those burnt codexes and the like, just rehashing with another interpretation — it’s diminishing returns.
因此，出现了新的考古学，但在我们阅读那些被烧毁的手抄本等之前，只需用另一种解释来重述——这就是收益递减。
Maybe better to read the Romans.
也许读罗马书更好。
I don’t know.
我不知道。
It’s hard at the margin to improve your understanding of Rome, I find.
我发现，要提高你对罗马的了解是很困难的。
Odd Arne Westad, Restless Empire: China and the World Since 1750.
奥德·阿恩·韦斯塔德（Odd Arne Westad），《躁动的帝国：1750 年以来的中国与世界》。
Very good book.
非常好的书。
There aren’t that many good books on Chinese history that will be intelligible to a Western reader, but that’s a good one.
西方读者能够理解的关于中国历史的好书并不多，但这是一本好书。
Robert Kaplan, The Revenge of Geography.
罗伯特·卡普兰，《地理学的复仇》。
I like geopolitics.
我喜欢地缘政治。
Some of the claims are overstated.
有些说法被夸大了。
He generalizes too much, but that’s better than a writer who won’t tell you anything.
他概括得太多了，但这比一个不会告诉你任何事情的作家要好。
Barry Eichengreen, Dwight Perkins, Kwanho Shin, From Miracle to Maturity: The Growth of the Korean Economy.
巴里·艾肯格林、德怀特·珀金斯、Kwanho Shin，从奇迹到成熟：韩国经济的增长。
There are way too few books on Korean economic growth.
关于韩国经济增长的书籍太少了。
That’s one of them.
这是其中之一。
Excellent on facts, quite boring in terms of style.
在事实方面非常出色，在风格方面却很乏味。
But just for what it covers and what it does, strong recommendation.
但仅就其涵盖的内容和作用而言，强烈推荐。
Those are your picks.
这些是你的选择。
I may have missed it, but I didn’t see music picks from 2012.
我可能错过了，但我没有看到 2012 年的音乐精选。
But what do you think of your picks?
但你觉得你的选择怎么样？
How have they aged overall?
他们的总体年龄如何？
Well, by whose account?
那么，通过谁的帐户？
Do I still like what I liked?
我还喜欢我喜欢的东西吗？
Mostly.
大多。
That doesn’t mean they’ve aged well, right?
这并不意味着他们已经老了，对吧？
Not The Dictator, not The Three Stooges.
不是独裁者，不是三个臭皮匠。
Can’t get over that, Tyler.
无法克服这一点，泰勒。
Sorry.
对不起。
Let’s go to production function.
让我们看看生产函数。
This will be easier this year in one sense because you only explicitly asked it three times this year.
从某种意义上说，今年这会更容易，因为今年你只明确问了三次。
I know you embed it in the conversation, and it comes up more organically, but was there any intent this year behind not asking as much?
我知道你把它嵌入到对话中，而且它会更自然地出现，但今年是否有任何意图不问那么多？
Literally not even saying the words “production function” or getting a lot into a guest’s process as a discrete segment.
从字面上看，甚至没有说“生产函数”这个词，也没有把很多东西作为一个离散的部分融入到客人的流程中。
Was there any intent behind that, or just happened that way?
这背后是否有任何意图，或者只是这样发生的？
If listeners like something too much, maybe you should move away from it.
如果听众太喜欢某件事，也许你应该远离它。
That’s the intent.
这就是意图。
You get trapped or caught in your own memes a bit.
你有点被自己的迷因困住了。
As I sip from my self-recommending mug.
当我从自我推荐的杯子里啜饮时。
Exactly.
确切地。
That’s why I did less of it, just to screw with people.
这就是为什么我很少这么做，只是为了和别人搞鬼。
“Well, you thought you liked this.
“好吧，你以为你喜欢这个。
Now I’m going to take it away from you.” But I’m still interested in the question.
现在我要把它从你手中夺走。”但我仍然对这个问题感兴趣。
Tyler, you’re a cruel mistress.
泰勒，你是个残忍的情妇。
Let’s do the three, though.
不过，让我们做这三个吧。
I will read out the answer to the production function question or where they talked about it, and you guess the name.
我会读出生产函数问题的答案或者他们在哪里谈论它，你猜猜名字。
“My dad is a good guy.
“我的爸爸是个好人。
I think it showed something about my interest in taxonomy” — he’s talking about bug collecting, I believe — “which is probably not unconnected to later becoming a baseball reporter, as I became a stat head in high school and in college.
我认为这表明了我对分类学的兴趣” — 我相信他正在谈论错误收集 — “这可能与后来成为一名棒球记者不无关系，因为我在高中和大学成为了一名统计负责人。
There is probably a story to tell there.”
那里或许有一个故事可讲。”
It’s got to be Chuck Klosterman, right?
一定是查克·克洛斯特曼，对吧？
It’s not Chuck Klosterman.
这不是查克·克洛斯特曼。
It’s a good guess, though.
不过，这是一个很好的猜测。
Who is it?
是谁？
It’s Jamal Greene.
我是贾马尔·格林。
Ah, that’s right.
啊，原来如此。
You asked him a question about his dad.
你问了他一个关于他父亲的问题。
Yes.
是的。
Number two.
第二。
“There’s a huge amount of power in being quantitative.
“量化具有巨大的力量。
There’s a huge power in thinking about things, not just from a qualitative angle, but putting numbers on things, building statistical models.
思考事物有巨大的力量，不仅从定性的角度思考，而且用数字来解释事物，建立统计模型。
Doing that in a world where you know you’re forgetting an enormous number of factors — how do you do that?
在一个你知道自己会忘记大量因素的世界中这样做——你该如何做到这一点？
I think that is one of the core things here — getting quantitative, numerical when it’s really hard to do so.”
我认为这是这里的核心内容之一——“在确实很难做到的时候进行定量、数字化。”
Was that SBF?
那是SBF吗？
It was Sam Bankman-Fried, indeed.
确实是萨姆·班克曼-弗里德。
It was your first question, it was a production function question.
这是你的第一个问题，这是一个生产函数问题。
He emphasized the quantitative and putting numbers on things.
他强调事物的数量和数字。
And learning how to count.
并学习如何计数。
Yes.
是的。
Third and last one.
第三个也是最后一个。
“Frankly, I don’t understand people who go quiescent intellectually as they get older.
“坦白说，我不理解那些随着年龄的增长而智力停滞的人。
In a way getting older — you get more control of your time, and you have more savvy on how to do things and how to make things happen, who to call when you have a question and all that stuff.
在某种程度上，随着年龄的增长，你可以更好地控制自己的时间，并且更清楚地知道如何做事、如何让事情发生、当你有问题时该给谁打电话等等。
So, your ability to investigate stuff, especially with the internet now, is going up all the time.
所以，你调查事物的能力，特别是现在通过互联网，一直在提高。
Why would you let curiosity fade?”
为什么你要让好奇心消失？”
Sounds like either Mary Gaitskill or Lydia Davis.
听起来像玛丽·盖茨基尔或莉迪亚·戴维斯。
It’s Stewart Brand.
这是斯图尔特·布兰德。
Stewart Brand, who up until Jeremy Grantham was our oldest CWT guest.
斯图尔特·布兰德 (Stewart Brand)，在杰里米·格兰瑟姆 (Jeremy Grantham) 之前，他是我们 CWT 最年长的客人。
I think Grantham.
我认为格兰瑟姆.
Dallas, is that right?
达拉斯，是吗？
Jeremy’s two months older than Stewart.
杰里米比斯图尔特大两个月。
Dallas Floer, our other CWT producer, confirms that there’s two months difference between Stewart Brand and Jeremy Grantham.
我们的另一位 CWT 制作人达拉斯·弗洛尔 (Dallas Floer) 证实，斯图尔特·布兰德 (Stewart Brand) 和杰里米·格兰瑟姆 (Jeremy Grantham) 之间存在两个月的差异。
I’m glad someone knows these things.
我很高兴有人知道这些事情。
Who’s our youngest guest ever?
谁是我们有史以来最年轻的客人？
Ooh, good question.
哦，好问题。
Any guesses?
有什么猜测吗？
I don’t think it was anyone from this year.
我不认为这是今年的任何人。
Ana Vidović is young.
安娜·维多维奇很年轻。
I don’t think she’s the youngest.
我不认为她是最小的。
She was the first guest this year.
她是今年的第一位嘉宾。
Patrick Collison would’ve been 27.
帕特里克·科里森当时 27 岁。
I don’t know if he’s the youngest, but he must be close.
我不知道他是否是最小的，但他一定很接近。
HOLMES: Yes, I would think that it’s someone probably in their late twenties would be the youngest, and we have reached out to people younger.
福尔摩斯：是的，我认为最年轻的可能是二十多岁的人，我们已经接触到了更年轻的人。
We’ve reached out to teenagers.
我们已经向青少年伸出了援手。
Tavi Gevinson we tried, right?
Tavi Gevinson 我们试过了，对吧？
Yes, and there have been several people like that who have done something exceptional.
是的，有几个像这样的人做出了非凡的事情。
Some of them have been headline newsmaker-type people, and we’ve tried to get them on, but for various reasons, no dice.
他们中的一些人是头条新闻人物，我们试图让他们加入，但由于各种原因，没有成功。
Let’s try someone else very young.
让我们尝试一下其他非常年轻的人。
Yes, and that’s something you’ve talked to us explicitly about, too.
是的，这也是您与我们明确谈论过的事情。
I’m a little reluctant that if they’re that young — it’s not that I think they’ll screw it up, but they do get branded by the episode, and that’s a responsibility on our part.
我有点不愿意，如果他们那么年轻 ——我并不认为他们会搞砸，但他们确实因这一集而被打上烙印，这是我们的责任。
It makes me a little nervous.
这让我有点紧张。
There are some people where you know that will be fine, and I would want to make sure it’s a young person in that position.
你知道有些人会很好，我想确保担任该职位的是年轻人。
Yes, you have to be careful, the younger they get.
是的，你必须小心，他们越年轻。
There are definitely people who are CWT-worthy, but there’s more to consider for them in coming on the show, to be sure.
肯定有一些人值得 CWT，但可以肯定的是，他们在参加节目时还需要考虑更多因素。
Switching on to some of the questions I had, and we get a few minutes to have the conversation I want to have.
转到我提出的一些问题，我们有几分钟的时间进行我想要进行的对话。
It’s all been the conversation you want to have, I believe.
我相信这都是您想要进行的对话。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
Especially the Three Stooges part.
尤其是三个臭皮匠部分。
Yes.
是的。
The through line of this episode is the Three Stooges movie from 2012 absolutely none of our listeners remember but does exist.
这一集的主线是 2012 年的电影《三个臭皮匠》，我们的听众绝对不记得，但它确实存在。
Just paying tribute to the original Three Stooges deserves a mention, I think, so I don’t regret having put it on the list.
我认为，仅仅向原版《三个臭皮匠》致敬就值得一提，所以我并不后悔将其列入名单。
Are you a Three Stooges, Laurel and Hardy, Abbott and Costello guy?
您是《三个臭皮匠》、《劳雷尔与哈代》、《雅培与科斯特洛》中的一员吗？
What’s your ranking?
你的排名是多少？
I watched a lot of Abbott and Costello as a kid because my father did, but I have to say I never found it funny.
我小时候看了很多雅培和科斯特洛的电影，因为我父亲看过，但我不得不说我从来不觉得这很有趣。
I think you can see roots of Larry David in Abbott and Costello, and that I find interesting, but no, it’s unwatchable.
我认为你可以在雅培和科斯特洛身上看到拉里·大卫的根源，我觉得这很有趣，但不，它是不可观看的。
Like “Who’s on first?” It’s just not funny.
比如“谁先上？”这一点都不好笑。
Laurel and Hardy — there’s a bit.
劳雷尔和哈代 —— 有一点。
W.C.
厕所。
Fields, The Bank Dick, I like better.
菲尔兹、银行迪克，我更喜欢。
Charlie Chaplin, I like better.
查理·卓别林，我更喜欢。
Buster Keaton, I like better.
巴斯特·基顿，我更喜欢。
Most early comedy, I don’t love, and I think that tells us something about the nature of comedy.
大多数早期的喜剧，我不喜欢，我认为这告诉了我们一些关于喜剧本质的东西。
I’m an Abbott and Costello guy.
我是雅培和科斯特洛的人。
I think I watched the most of that.
我想我看的最多的就是这个了。
I think some of that holds up.
我认为其中一些是成立的。
Others — maybe not so much.
其他人————也许没那么多。
The best movie is with Frankenstein and the Wolf Man.
最好的电影是《弗兰肯斯坦与狼人》。
Yes.
是的。
Actually, a good Frankenstein and the Wolf Man movie.
事实上，这是一部很好的《弗兰肯斯坦与狼人》电影。
I watched that movie many times as a kid.
我小时候看过那部电影很多次。
Yes, it’s very good.
是的，这非常好。
You wrote one of your big Marginal Revolution essays this year.
你今年写了一篇重要的《边际革命》文章。
Last year you did one on state capacity libertarianism, and this time you did one on the New Right.
去年你做了一篇关于国家能力自由主义的文章，这次你做了一篇关于新右派的文章。
What was your thought process going into that?
你对此的思考过程是怎样的？
You said for the SCL one, the state-capacity-libertarian one, that you were typing it with glee.
你说，对于 SCL 的那一份，国家能力自由主义的那一份，你是带着高兴的心情打字的。
You knew it would be poking the bear or something.
你知道它会戳熊什么的。
For the New Right, what were you trying to accomplish for yourself and for your readers?
对于新右派来说，您想为自己和读者实现什么目标？
Well, when I go to events, I very often meet quite smart young people.
嗯，当我参加活动时，我经常会遇到非常聪明的年轻人。
And those who are not on the left and who are not effective altruists — those who are on the right — they tend more and more to be some version of the New Right, for lack of a better term, even though that’s a quite diverse set of views.
而那些不属于左派且不是有效的利他主义者的人——那些属于右派的人——他们越来越倾向于成为某种版本的新右派，因为缺乏更好的术语，尽管这是一组相当不同的观点。
I wanted to write a piece that would actually try to persuade those people and make them more in the direction of classical liberals, but recognize what it was they might be correct about, but still give reasons why I thought they weren’t on the proper path forward.
我想写一篇文章，实际上试图说服那些人，让他们更加接近古典自由主义者的方向，但要认识到他们可能是正确的，但仍然给出我认为他们没有走上正确道路的原因。
That was my thinking there.
这就是我的想法。
I think it’s the most influential piece I’ve written this year, is my guess.
我认为这是我今年写的最有影响力的文章。
Probably the most widely read as well.
可能也是阅读最广泛的。
Are these movements now just coming fast and furious?
这些运动现在是否来得又快又猛？
Is that one place in which things are getting more dynamic and changing all the time?
这是一个事物变得越来越动态、不断变化的地方吗？
Is every year now Tyler is going to be writing a new essay on some new intellectual or political movement that’s coalescing?
现在泰勒每年都会写一篇关于正在融合的新知识分子或政治运动的新文章吗？
Probably.
大概。
There’s a lot of fracturing.
有很多裂缝。
Old views are breaking down.
旧的观点正在被打破。
With the internet, everyone’s eclectic, so there’s always more to write about in terms of other people’s views.
在互联网上，每个人都是不拘一格的，所以总是有更多的东西可以根据别人的观点来写。
You had a book come out this year with Daniel Gross called Talent.
今年你和丹尼尔·格罗斯（Daniel Gross）合作出版了一本书，名为《天赋》（Talent）。
How did that tour go?
那次旅行进行得怎么样？
How did it compare to previous book tours?
与之前的巡回售书活动相比如何？
Any noticeable differences?
有什么明显的差异吗？
The tour is still going.
巡演仍在继续。
I’m still giving talks, webinars, whatever, about the book quite often.
我仍然经常就这本书进行演讲、网络研讨会等。
A lot of institutions are using the book in a way that I find rewarding.
许多机构都在以我认为有益的方式使用这本书。
I’m not sure I’m free to let on what they all are, but some pretty good places.
我不确定我是否可以自由地透露它们的全部内容，但有一些相当不错的地方。
I think the book has a remarkably dedicated set of readers.
我认为这本书有一群非常热心的读者。
Per reader, it’s the most influential book I’ve written in terms of changing something about practice.
对于读者来说，这是我所写的在改变实践方面最有影响力的书。
And of course, a lot of the credit there goes to Daniel, so I’ve been very happy with how the book has gone.
当然，这很大程度上要归功于丹尼尔，所以我对这本书的进展感到非常满意。
Did anyone ask you your question, which is, “What are you working on next?”
有没有人问过你这样的问题：“你接下来要做什么？”
Anyone in a podcast?
有人在播客吗？
Anyone in that press tour.
参加新闻发布会的任何人。
You mentioned that one of the things no one ever asks about is, what’s your next book or what’s your next project.
您提到没有人问过的一件事是，您的下一本书是什么或您的下一个项目是什么。
Did you get that this time?
这次你明白了吗？
I did a few times.
我做了几次。
I’ve always been thinking about a sequel with Daniel.
我一直在考虑与丹尼尔合作续集。
I don’t think that will be the next thing.
我认为这不会是下一件事。
I don’t think we have replenishment of fresh material on a rapid enough basis.
我认为我们没有足够快地补充新鲜材料。
And I’m writing a book, my take on the greatest economists of all time — Hayek, Keynes, Smith, Malthus, Mill — and why they’re interesting or where they went wrong, and that’s pretty far along.
我正在写一本书，讲述我对有史以来最伟大的经济学家的看法——哈耶克、凯恩斯、斯密、马尔萨斯、密尔——以及他们为什么有趣或者他们错在哪里，这已经很长了。
It’s over three-quarters done, I would say.
我想说，已经完成了四分之三以上。
Oh, that’s exciting, Tyler.
哦，这太令人兴奋了，泰勒。
I’m excited.
我很兴奋。
But it won’t come out soon, so there has to be the paperback of Talent.
但它不会很快出版，所以必须要有平装本《Talent》。
That will take a while.
这需要一段时间。
Then that goes through its run.
然后就完成了它的运行。
The paperback of Talent prevents us from learning about the talent in economics.
《人才》的平装本让我们无法了解经济学中的人才。
That’s exactly right.
完全正确。
In a funny way, this is a sequel to Talent.
有趣的是，这是《Talent》的续集。
It’s case studies.
这是案例研究。
You were on Aarthi and Sriram’s Good Time Show, and one of the questions they presented to you was about the NBA Halftime Show, and you said you really liked it, and you liked it because the people argue with each other, but they seem to love each other.
你参加了 Aarthi 和 Sriram 的 Good Time Show，他们向你提出的问题之一是关于 NBA 半场秀，你说你真的很喜欢它，你喜欢它是因为人们互相争吵，但他们似乎彼此相爱。
They’re really highly analytical, but trying to get to the truth of things.
他们确实具有很强的分析能力，但试图了解事物的真相。
This is the TNT show, in particular, with Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith, Shaq, and Ernie.
这是 TNT 节目，尤其是查尔斯·巴克利、肯尼·史密斯、沙克和厄尼的节目。
They’re not always analytical, but they have fantastic chemistry, and they know how to make it work, and it’s one of the best things to study, I think, to understand podcasting.
他们并不总是善于分析，但他们有很棒的化学反应，他们知道如何让它发挥作用，我认为，这是了解播客的最好的学习内容之一。
He mentioned it in the context of podcasting.
他在播客中提到了这一点。
Do you know where that format came from?
你知道这种格式是从哪里来的吗？
Originally?
起初？
No.
不。
Because it was an intentionally created format.
因为它是一种有意创建的格式。
How do you have something on TV that’s argumentative but compelling and insightful?
如何在电视上呈现一些有争议但又引人注目且富有洞察力的内容？
They use visuals very well, too.
他们也很好地利用视觉效果。
Readers can correct me, listeners can correct me if I’m wrong here, but I believe one of the sources that people point to that format is actually the Siskel and Ebert show that started in the ’80s.
如果我在这里错了，读者可以纠正我，听众可以纠正我，但我相信人们指出这种格式的来源之一实际上是 80 年代开始的 Siskel 和 Ebert 节目。
And that was the thing that they figured out — how to have two people who were a little cantankerous and a little antagonistic, but fundamentally love movies.
这就是他们想出的办法——如何拥有两个有点脾气暴躁、有点敌对但本质上热爱电影的人。
Yes.
是的。
They had two different points of view and could argue about a movie in a way that was still instructive, and it took them time to dial that in.
他们有两种不同的观点，并且可以以仍然具有启发性的方式争论一部电影，但他们花了一些时间来调整这一点。
But one of the big producers at sports shows, like on ESPN, directly credited Siskel and Ebert with giving him the idea to do shows like the Halftime Show.
但体育节目（例如 ESPN）的一位大型制作人直接将西斯克尔和埃伯特的功劳归功于西斯克尔和埃伯特给了他制作《中场秀》等节目的想法。
I didn’t know that.
我不知道。
That’s great.
那太棒了。
It took a while for them to work Shaq into the group, and it’s fine now, but at first, I was like, “Eh, this isn’t going to work.”
他们花了一段时间才让沙克融入这个团队，现在一切都很好，但一开始，我想，“呃，这行不通。”
It took Siskel and Ebert — and I think this is an instructive lesson for everyone — it took them a while to figure that out.
西斯克尔和埃伯特花了一些时间才弄清楚这一点——我认为这对每个人来说都是一个有启发性的教训。
It is very difficult to make that work and to operate in that environment, whether you’re on a podcast, NBA Halftime Show, or talking about the movies.
无论你是在播客、NBA 中场秀还是在谈论电影，要在这样的环境中实现这一点并进行操作都是非常困难的。
And this is something we think about at Mercatus all the time.
这是我们 Mercatus 一直在思考的问题。
How do you have that insightful dialogue, where there’s some tension, but you know you’re trying to get to the truth of the matter?
你们如何进行富有洞察力的对话，虽然存在一些紧张气氛，但您知道自己正在努力了解事情的真相？
And that is a really powerful format for actually developing understanding and insight for things that sports has got figured out.
这是一种非常强大的形式，可以真正培养对体育已经弄清楚的事情的理解和洞察力。
Seinfeld did also.
宋飞也这么做了。
Early Seinfeld episodes are pretty iffy, but at some point, it becomes funny and interesting.
《宋飞正传》早期的剧集相当不确定，但在某些时候，它变得有趣又有趣。
I have to say, I’m not a Seinfeld person.
我不得不说，我不是宋飞的人。
I like Larry David and Curb Your Enthusiasm, but I’m —
我喜欢拉里·大卫和抑制你的热情，但我 -
Well, he’s better.
嗯，他好多了。
It’s a more pure thing, but for ensemble work, I think Seinfeld is where one goes.
这是一件更纯粹的事情，但对于合奏工作，我认为《宋飞正传》是人们应该去的地方。
Seinfeld — we have, I think, had a direct line to — we did have a connect with Seinfeld, and we sent an invitation pre-COVID, I think, or maybe during COVID.
《宋飞正传》——我认为我们有一条直接的线路——我们确实与《宋飞正传》有联系，我想，我们在新冠疫情之前，或者可能在新冠疫情期间，发出了邀请。
But no, no luck with Seinfeld, but I think he would be a really good guest as well.
但不，《宋飞正传》并不走运，但我认为他也会是一位非常好的客人。
We should try Larry David.
我们应该试试拉里·大卫。
Larry David —
拉里·大卫 —
We can promise not to ask about crypto.
我们可以保证不会询问加密货币。
But weirdly, Larry David — even though he was marketing FDX, he played the guy who thinks it’s a bad idea, so he is coming up aces on this.
但奇怪的是，拉里·大卫（Larry David）——尽管他在推销 FDX，但他扮演的是一个认为这是个坏主意的人，所以他在这方面拿出了王牌。
Lastly, I forgot to ask one of the most important questions of this retrospective, which comes from our fellow CWT producer, Dallas Floer.
最后，我忘了问本次回顾展中最重要的问题之一，这个问题来自我们的 CWT 制作人达拉斯·弗洛尔 (Dallas Floer)。
She says, “I saw Limp Bizkit in concert this past summer, and it was one of the best concerts I’ve ever been to.
她说：“去年夏天我看了 Limp Bizkit 的音乐会，这是我听过的最好的音乐会之一。
What are some of Tyler’s best or favorite concerts you’ve ever attended?”
你参加过的泰勒最好或最喜欢的音乐会有哪些？”
Master Musicians of Jajouka.
Jajouka 的音乐大师。
They’re Moroccan.
他们是摩洛哥人。
I would call them a noise band.
我称它们为噪声带。
That’s one of the best shows I’ve ever been to.
这是我看过的最好的演出之一。
Seeing live Gamelin music in Bali is one of the best shows I’ve ever been to.
在巴厘岛观看现场甘末林音乐是我去过的最好的表演之一。
The Paul McCartney tour in the early ’90s.
90 年代初保罗·麦卡特尼 (Paul McCartney) 巡演。
Seeing Roger McGuinn and Gene Clark play at NYU in what would be, I guess, the mid-1980s was a top show.
我想，在 20 世纪 80 年代中期，观看罗杰·麦吉恩 (Roger McGuinn) 和吉恩·克拉克 (Gene Clark) 在纽约大学表演是一场顶级表演。
Those are a few that come to mind off the top of my head.
这些是我脑海中浮现的一些。
I saw Horowitz play at Carnegie Hall once — piano.
我曾在卡内基音乐厅看过霍洛维茨演奏过一次钢琴。
He did Beethoven Opus 101, Schumann Carnaval, some other great works of Chopin.
他演奏了贝多芬作品101、舒曼狂欢节以及肖邦的其他一些伟大作品。
That was amazing, even though it was not Horowitz at his peak.
这真是太神奇了，尽管那不是霍洛维茨的巅峰时期。
Uchida playing Mozart was incredible.
内田演奏莫扎特的表演令人难以置信。
So many for top concerts, I wouldn’t know where to stop.
顶级音乐会太多了，我不知道该停在哪里。
Those are good picks.
这些都是不错的选择。
I’m not sure how they stack up against Limp Bizkit though.
但我不确定他们与 Limp Bizkit 相比如何。
Before we close, let me give a shout-out to everyone on the team who helped out this year.
在结束之前，让我向今年为团队提供帮助的每个人表示感谢。
That’s Limp Bizkit fan Dallas Floer, Morgan Hamilton, Kate De Lanoy, Sloane Shearman, Caroline Bair, Karen Plante, Christina Behe, Haley Larsen, Katie Kinderknecht, Anna McVae, and Ashley Schiller.
他们是 Limp Bizkit 粉丝达拉斯·弗洛尔 (Dallas Floer)、摩根·汉密尔顿 (Morgan Hamilton)、凯特·德·拉诺伊 (Kate De Lanoy)、斯隆·谢尔曼 (Sloane Shearman)、卡罗琳·贝尔 (Caroline Bair)、凯伦·普兰特 (Karen Plante)、克里斯蒂娜·贝赫 (Christina Behe)、海莉·拉森 (Haley Larsen)、凯蒂·金德克内希特 (Katie Kinderknecht)、安娜·麦克维 (Anna McVae) 和阿什利·席勒 (Ashley Schiller)。
If you count all the people that helped out here in Mercatus with live events and things like that, it’d be a much longer list.
如果你算上所有在 Mercatus 举办现场活动和类似活动的人，这个名单会更长。
But we thank you for all your help, and we look forward to another year in Conversations.
但我们感谢您的所有帮助，我们期待对话的又一年。
Thank you, Jeff.
谢谢你，杰夫。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。