Conversations with Tyler 2021 Retrospective (Ep. 139)
Hello, everyone, and welcome to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎收看《与泰勒对话》。
My name is Jeff Holmes.
我的名字是杰夫·霍姆斯。
I am not Tyler, but I produce Conversations with Tyler, and we’re doing our 2021 year-end review.
我不是泰勒，但我制作了《与泰勒对话》，我们正在做 2021 年年终回顾。
This is the third time we’ve done it.
这是我们第三次这样做了。
Tyler, to start it off, I just have to say, it’s great to see you in person.
泰勒，首先，我不得不说，很高兴见到你本人。
Good to see you in person as well.
很高兴见到你本人。
I have tested negative five times this week.
这周我已经五次检测呈阴性。
I feel incredibly safe then.
那时我感到非常安全。
I will not develop a cough or a scratchy throat on my way home, I take it.
我不会在回家的路上咳嗽或喉咙发痒，我会接受。
The last time I saw you was April of 2020 here in this studio, actually.
事实上，我最后一次见到你是 2020 年 4 月在这个工作室。
We were recording the Tetlock episode, and that was the last time, I think, we’ve seen each other.
我们当时正在录制《泰特洛克》一集，我想那是我们最后一次见面。
Amazing.
惊人的。
To start, I thought the question everyone wants to know, Tyler, is how has life changed for you since you were featured on Ancient Aliens on the History Channel?
首先，我想每个人都想知道的问题是，泰勒，自从你在历史频道上出演《远古外星人》节目以来，你的生活发生了怎样的变化？
I didn’t even know I was featured on Ancient Aliens on the History Channel.
我什至不知道我出现在历史频道的《远古外星人》节目中。
I will say, in a variety of public settings, people ask me what are my latest thoughts about UFOs, and that’s the main way in which my life has changed.
我想说，在各种公共场合，人们问我对不明飞行物的最新想法是什么，这是我的生活改变的主要方式。
It seems to be, now, quite clear that the data the Navy is picking up are real.
现在看来，海军收集的数据是真实的，这一点已经很清楚了。
It’s not a mistake of the instruments or bad eyewitness reports.
这不是仪器的错误或目击者的不良报告。
That doesn’t mean the UFOs are aliens.
这并不意味着不明飞行物是外星人。
I give that something ranging between 1 percent and 10 percent, depending on my mood on a given day.
我给出的比例在 1% 到 10% 之间，具体取决于我当天的心情。
But it seems to me a major puzzle, no matter what it is, and it should change all of our lives more than it does.
但在我看来，无论它是什么，这都是一个重大难题，而且它应该比它本身更能改变我们所有人的生活。
Last year when we were talking, you mentioned — we’re referring to the John Brennan episode where this came up.
去年，当我们谈话时，你提到 ——我们指的是约翰·布伦南（John Brennan）那一集，其中出现了这个问题。
I had not listened to the episode yet, but you said, “John Brennan talks about UFOs.
我还没听过这一集，但你说，“约翰·布伦南谈论不明飞行物。
It’s going to be big.” And it was quite big.
事情将会变得很大。”而且它相当大。
It got picked up a lot.
它被捡了很多。
And yes, you were on Ancient Aliens, Season 16, Episode 9, in fact.
是的，事实上，你正在观看《远古外星人》第 16 季第 9 集。
Were they nice to me or did they mock me?
他们对我很好还是嘲笑我？
They throw to the clip, but it’s very odd to see you and John Brennan on Conversations with Tyler in this studio, virtually.
他们投入了剪辑，但看到你和约翰·布伦南在这个工作室里与泰勒对话，真的很奇怪。
You’re in the studio, Brennan is virtual, but you’re just sitting there, and Brennan is talking about aliens.
你在工作室里，布伦南是虚拟的，但你只是坐在那里，布伦南正在谈论外星人。
Marginal Revolution University is now in a Nobel lecture, right?
边际革命大学现在正在做诺贝尔演讲吧？
It’s a strange world we live in.
我们生活在一个奇怪的世界。
This is all going to plan.
这一切都在计划之中。
In other words, this is very much in the 10-year plan for Mercatus Center comms, and I’m glad to see it’s paying off.
换句话说，这在 Mercatus Center 通信的 10 年计划中非常重要，我很高兴看到它得到了回报。
Whose simulation are we living in, right?
我们生活在谁的模拟之中，对吗？
That’s the updating we need.
这就是我们需要的更新。
Actually, that was a Twitter question.
事实上，这是一个 Twitter 问题。
I’ll go ahead and ask it.
我去问一下。
Are we living in a simulation?
我们生活在模拟中吗？
This was prompted by the David Deutsch conversation.
这是由大卫·多伊奇的谈话引发的。
I’m never sure what it means to be living in a simulation.
我从来不知道生活在模拟中意味着什么。
If there’s a high school kid with a project, and the project is to simulate a lot of beings, then it’s well defined.
如果有一个高中生有一个项目，并且该项目是模拟很多存在，那么它的定义就很好。
But is the universe as a whole a simulation, I don’t think has a comparably clear answer.
但宇宙作为一个整体是否是一个模拟，我认为没有一个相对明确的答案。
If you view the universe as somehow just being about computation in the broadest sense of the word, it seems under all scenarios, the universe as a whole, properly construed, is a kind of simulation.
如果你认为宇宙在某种程度上只是最广泛意义上的计算，那么在所有情况下，宇宙作为一个整体，如果正确解释的话，似乎是一种模拟。
In that sense, are we living in a simulation?
从这个意义上说，我们是生活在模拟中吗？
Almost certainly.
几乎可以肯定。
Are we the product of somebody’s experiment?
我们是某人实验的产物吗？
That seems less likely to me.
对我来说这似乎不太可能。
I simply think that civilizations tend to perish before they can create these truly grand simulations.
我只是认为文明在能够创造出这些真正宏大的模拟之前往往就会灭亡。
The Bayesian reasoning of “Well, each civilization creates so many civilizations, you need to reason backwards and assume you’re in one,” I don’t think that works, so basically, no. But the medieval point that, in some sense, the universe is a simulation in the mind of God — can you treat the mind of God as a simulation, and so on.
贝叶斯推理“好吧，每个文明都创造了如此多的文明，你需要向后推理并假设你属于其中一个”，我认为这行不通，所以基本上不行。但中世纪的观点是，从某种意义上说，宇宙是上帝思想中的一个模拟——“你能把上帝的思想视为一个模拟吗？”等等。
At the macro level, people, I think, are confusing those two questions rather too quickly.
我认为，在宏观层面上，人们太快地混淆了这两个问题。
Has Robin Hanson’s paper on grabby aliens influenced you at all on this, in terms of civilizational collapse and things like that?
罗宾·汉森（Robin Hanson）关于贪婪外星人的论文在文明崩溃之类的问题上对你有影响吗？
I think, in Robin’s work on grabby aliens, he’s trying to infer too much from seeing nothing.
我认为，在罗宾对贪婪的外星人的研究中，他试图从什么也看不见的情况中推断出太多东西。
In my view, we know so little about the parameters of the problem that what we can infer from seeing nothing is pretty close to nothing.
在我看来，我们对问题的参数知之甚少，以至于我们从什么都看不到的情况中推断出的结论几乎是零。
We don’t quite see nothing.
我们什么也没看到。
You asked me about UFOs before — maybe that’s only a 1 percent chance that it’s some product of an alien civilization.
你之前问过我关于不明飞行物的事 ——也许只有百分之一的可能性它是外星文明的产物。
No, I think we are mostly in the dark when it comes to grand speculations about the universe and how settled it is with life.
不，我认为当涉及到关于宇宙以及它与生命的关系的宏大推测时，我们大多处于黑暗之中。
So I don’t agree with Robin’s work, but I’m glad he did it.
所以我不同意罗宾的工作，但我很高兴他做到了。
It’s very thought-provoking.
非常发人深省。
On predictions in the 2020 retrospective
关于2020年回顾的预测
We may be in the dark about whether we’re alone in the universe and the future of civilization, but we’re less in the dark about some predictions you made this time last year.
我们可能对宇宙中我们是否孤独以及文明的未来一无所知，但我们对你去年这个时候做出的一些预测就不那么一无所知了。
Uh-oh.
呃哦。
HOLMES: I thought we could revisit them and see how they fared.
福尔摩斯：我想我们可以重新拜访他们，看看他们的表现如何。
Let’s try.
我们来试试吧。
Let’s hope I can remember the actual reality, as well as the prediction.
希望我能记住实际情况以及预测。
Last year, I asked when you’d have your first normal movie theater experience, where you just buy a ticket, you show up, you don’t know anyone else, you’re not renting the theater.
去年，我问你什么时候会有第一次正常的电影院体验，你只需要买一张票，你就可以出现，你不认识其他人，你也不租电影院。
And don’t rent out the whole theater, which is what I was doing.
并且不要出租整个剧院，这就是我正在做的事情。
Correct.
正确的。
You suggested it would just be three weeks after your second dose or whenever you had achieved full immunity.
您建议在第二次注射后三周或您获得完全免疫力时进行。
Do you remember when you saw that first movie and what it was?
您还记得您何时观看第一部电影以及它是什么吗？
I don’t remember what the movie was.
我不记得那部电影是什么了。
I strongly expect I went to the movies as soon as I could, which would be two, three weeks after the second dose.
我强烈希望我能尽快去看电影，那是在第二剂注射后两三周。
I think my second dose was March 1, so probably sometime in March.
我想我的第二剂疫苗是在 3 月 1 日，所以可能是在 3 月的某个时候。
There wasn’t much to see, you know, but I was willing to see crap, but I don’t remember.
你知道，没什么可看的，但我愿意看垃圾，但我不记得了。
How many movies did you see in a theater this year, roughly?
今年你在电影院大概看了多少部电影？
I would guess 30.
我猜是30。
Thirty!
三十！
A fair number.
一个公平的数字。
I saw three.
我看到了三个。
You saw three?
你看到三个？
You have small children though.
不过你有小孩。
Yes, and one of them was with the small child, and it was a great experience.
是的，其中一个是带着小孩，这是一次很棒的经历。
It was her first movie theater experience, so it was fun to have the opportunity to do that.
这是她第一次去电影院，所以有机会这样做很有趣。
That was, in fact, my first back-to-the-movies experience, watching Raya and the Last Dragon, for anyone who’s wondering at home.
事实上，这是我第一次回到电影的经历，为那些在家里想知道的人观看《拉雅和最后的龙》。
I went on a binge once I could.
只要有可能，我就尽情狂欢。
What can I say?
我能说什么？
Intertemporal substitution, right?
跨期替代，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
I also asked about the first in-person Conversations with Tyler in general, the first one-on-one interview in person.
我还询问了与泰勒的第一次面对面对话，即第一次面对面的一对一采访。
You suggested it would be in February.
你建议是二月。
In fact, it was in June, and it was with Alexander the Grate.
事实上，那是在六月，而且是在亚历山大大帝那里。
But that was outside.
但那是在外面。
He lives outside.
他住在外面。
It would have had to be in-person and outside regardless of COVID, actually.
实际上，无论新冠疫情如何，它都必须在现场和室外进行。
Correct, I hadn’t foreseen that.
没错，我没有预见到这一点。
He is a man without permanent residence.
他是一个没有永久居留权的人。
Is that the proper way to —
这是正确的方法吗？
No fixed address.
无固定地址。
No fixed address.
无固定地址。
True of us all in the longer run.
从长远来看，我们所有人都是如此。
Then in terms of a live CWT, where we have a live audience, we both thought we would do one in 2021, but in fact, the first one we’re doing is going to be in January.
然后就现场 CWT 而言，我们有现场观众，我们都认为我们会在 2021 年举办一次，但事实上，我们要做的第一次活动将在一月份举行。
That is going to be just for Mercatus folks.
这仅适用于 Mercatus 人员。
It’s not even going to be open to the public.
它甚至不会向公众开放。
It will still be somewhat of a closed event.
这仍然是一场封闭的活动。
We didn’t foresee Delta, like many other people.
我们没有像许多其他人一样预见到达美航空。
Otherwise, I think we would have had one.
否则，我想我们就会有一个。
Yes, I was going to ask, what did those predictions about CWT, in particular, reveal to you about the state of what we were assuming would come in 2021?
是的，我想问的是，这些关于 CWT 的预测，特别是向您揭示了我们假设 2021 年会出现什么情况？
Well, as second doses were becoming available, my modal prediction was that there wouldn’t be a major new variant of import.
好吧，随着第二剂疫苗的上市，我的模态预测是不会出现主要的新进口变种。
I certainly was aware of the possibility, but I thought, by very late in the year, we’d have a vaccine mandate and have in maybe not a huge audience somewhere for a guest.
我当然知道这种可能性，但我想，到今年年底，我们将获得疫苗授权，并且可能不会有大量的观众来接待客人。
But with Delta and now Omicron, it’s still not going to happen for a while.
但对于 Delta 和现在的 Omicron，这种情况在一段时间内仍然不会发生。
That’s what I got wrong.
这就是我错了。
Let’s go through the numbers on Conversations with Tyler.
让我们看一下《与泰勒对话》中的数字。
This will be the last episode of the year, and we’ll have released 27 episodes with a possibility of a 28th because you’re potentially doing a bonus episode with Russ Roberts.
这将是今年的最后一集，我们将发布 27 集，可能会发布第 28 集，因为你可能会与 Russ Roberts 一起制作额外剧集。
If that releases in December, that’ll be the 28th of the year.
如果它在 12 月发布，那将是今年的 28 号。
How many do you think we did in person?
你认为我们亲自做了多少次？
Is it zero?
是零吗？
No, it’s not zero because there’s Alexander the Grate.
不，它不是零，因为有亚历山大大帝。
Oh, there’s David Rubenstein, Alexander the Grate.
哦，还有大卫·鲁宾斯坦、亚历山大大帝。
I guess I’ll say two.
我想我会说两个。
You’re missing David Salle.
你错过了大卫·萨尔。
Three.
三。
Of course, David Salle.
当然，大卫·萨尔。
That was a good episode — in his studio.
这是一个精彩的插曲——在他的工作室里。
In his studio.
在他的工作室里。
Obviously, I think you would have predicted, for reasons we’ve just gone over, that we would have done more in person, but —
显然，我认为你会预测，出于我们刚刚讨论过的原因，我们会亲自做更多的事情，但是 -
We could have done more, but it just turned out to be okay enough to do them not in person, and other people were afraid even if we weren’t.
我们本来可以做得更多，但事实证明，不亲自做就足够了，即使我们不做，其他人也会害怕。
Right, and I think, like a lot of people, we’re learning that the benefits to remote are the logistics are easier, the access is greater.
是的，我认为，像很多人一样，我们了解到远程的好处是物流更容易，访问更方便。
I would expect going forward, we’ll save the in-person, maybe, for special guests.
我预计，未来我们可能会为特殊客人保留面对面的交流。
But the remote has really worked out well in terms of giving us access to a more diverse set of guests.
但遥控器确实非常有效，让我们能够接触到更多不同的客人。
It’s easier to be snippy with people remote.
对远方的人表现出尖刻的态度更容易。
That may be good or it may be bad, but I find that’s one difference.
这可能是好事，也可能是坏事，但我发现这是一个区别。
But for me, a big motive in doing these is getting to meet the people.
但对我来说，这样做的一个重要动机是结识人们。
Remote, in that sense, makes it less desirable for me.
从这个意义上说，远程让我不太想要它。
I’m still going to do them, but I miss meeting all the people.
我仍然会这样做，但我想念见到所有人。
And I like airports, actually.
事实上，我喜欢机场。
Really?
真的吗？
I genuinely, honestly do.
我真心实意地这样做。
HOLMES: Yet I seem to recall in your interview with Larissa MacFarquhar, you talked about how if you could have one superpower ability — I can’t quite remember how it was framed, but you said just eliminating — instantly being able to travel to a place.
福尔摩斯：然而我似乎记得在你对拉里萨·麦克法夸尔的采访中，你谈到如果你能拥有一种超能力 —— 我不太记得它是如何构建的，但你说只是消除 —— 立即能够去一个地方旅行。
Oh, sure.
哦，当然。
That’s like getting to Uzbekistan.
这就像去乌兹别克斯坦一样。
If we’re flying to Albany to see Lydia Davis or something, it’s not nearly as hard.
如果我们飞往奥尔巴尼去看莉迪亚·戴维斯或其他什么地方，那就没那么难了。
I wouldn’t say I like flying, but I do like airports.
我不会说我喜欢飞行，但我确实喜欢机场。
Airports are underrated, I agree.
机场被低估了，我同意。
The food in them has gotten better and better.
他们的食物变得越来越好。
What’s your favorite airport for food?
您最喜欢哪个机场的美食？
Singapore, obviously.
显然是新加坡。
Chicago — I like pizza, and so on.
芝加哥 — 我喜欢披萨等等。
Most airports now are pretty good for food.
现在大多数机场的食物都非常好。
They’re good enough.
他们已经足够好了。
Atlanta used to have a very good restaurant, One Flew South.
亚特兰大曾经有一家非常好的餐厅，One Flew South。
I’m not sure how good it is in the past few years, but it was excellent.
我不确定过去几年有多好，但非常好。
In August, you wrote, “A podcast really works when it is the dramatic unfolding of a story and mood between the guest and host.” In September, we had our most downloaded episode.
八月，您写道：“当播客能够戏剧性地展现嘉宾和主持人之间的故事和情绪时，它才真正有效。”九月份，我们迎来了下载次数最多的一集。
That was Amia Srinivasan?
那是阿米亚·斯里尼瓦桑吗？
Yes.
是的。
What was your intended story or mood there?
你想要讲述的故事或心情是什么？
And how do you think it diverged from what was actually perceived by the audience?
您认为它与观众的实际感知有何不同？
She gave much more what you might call fundamental pushback to my questions than I was expecting.
她对我的问题给出了比我预想的更多的你可能称之为根本性的反驳。
I thought it made for a very good podcast.
我认为这是一个非常好的播客。
I really liked it.
我真的很喜欢它。
I think she’s super smart.
我认为她非常聪明。
If someone wants to fight a war over the terms of discourse, my view is, bring it on.
如果有人想为了话语权而打仗，我的观点是，那就打吧。
One should respect that.
人们应该尊重这一点。
I thought it would be much more an internal exploration of aspects of different arguments, and it wasn’t.
我认为这更多的是对不同论点各个方面的内部探索，但事实并非如此。
It was “How can you even ask this question?” response from her.
这是“你怎么能问这个问题？”她的回应。
That was a bit new for Conversations with Tyler, but again, that’s great, one of my favorite episodes of the year.
这对于《与泰勒对话》来说有点新鲜，但同样，这很棒，这是我今年最喜欢的剧集之一。
People either hated it or got very upset at her, or some of her fans maybe hated me.
人们要么讨厌她，要么对她感到非常不安，或者她的一些粉丝可能讨厌我。
But that’s a sign it had some resonance.
但这表明它引起了一些共鸣。
It did have resonance.
它确实引起了共鸣。
I was not aware of it until I looked at the stats.
直到我查看统计数据时我才意识到这一点。
I knew that there was chatter about it online, but it’s the most downloaded.
我知道网上有很多关于它的讨论，但它是下载次数最多的。
And also the retention, the amount people listened to was quite high, too.
而且保留率和人们收听的数量也相当高。
They weren’t listening to it and turning it off in disgust.
他们没有听，而是厌恶地关掉了它。
They were actually listening to almost all of it, in fact, on average.
事实上，平均而言，他们实际上听了几乎所有内容。
Many people are remembering that podcast.
很多人都记得那个播客。
That’s my sense.
这是我的感觉。
People still talk to me about it, write me about it.
人们仍然跟我谈论这件事，写信给我。
How would you describe your interview style?
您如何描述您的采访风格？
I’m talking in particular with her.
我特别和她说话。
Do you think that it was your style as an interviewer that caused that to go somewhat off the rails?
您是否认为是您作为面试官的风格导致了这种情况的发生？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I think my style for my conversation with her was a little bit different.
我认为我和她谈话的风格有点不同。
If someone does philosophy at an abstract level, they’re virtually asking or forcing you to challenge them more than would be the case, say, if you’re interviewing a CEO or a general.
如果有人在抽象的层面上研究哲学，他们实际上是在要求或强迫你挑战他们，比你面试首席执行官或将军的情况要多。
So I thought it was a respect to her argument to try to challenge its premises, empirically or otherwise.
因此，我认为尝试从经验或其他方面挑战其前提是对她的论点的尊重。
That’s not the case with, say, Pierpaolo Barbieri, who has a startup.
但皮尔保罗·巴比耶里 (Pierpaolo Barbieri) 的情况却并非如此，他拥有一家初创公司。
I asked him about his sector, but I was asking him to explain to us how it works.
我向他询问了他的部门，但我要求他向我们解释一下它是如何运作的。
It was very different, but relative to her being a philosopher, I don’t think it was so different.
这是非常不同的，但相对于她作为一名哲学家，我认为这并没有那么不同。
I think that’s how you should interview a philosopher you respect.
我认为这就是你应该如何采访你尊敬的哲学家。
I think you could say that your interview style is very masculine because it tends to be more abstract and about getting to the point, “what do you really think about this?” But also, that’s a more philosophical approach.
我想你可以说你的采访风格非常男性化，因为它往往更抽象，而且更切入主题，“你对此到底有何看法？”而且，这是一种更具哲学性的方法。
More Socratic.
更苏格拉底式的。
Right, so one thing I think drove some of the reaction to it — the negative reaction — was exactly that, which is there was a feeling that it didn’t follow what the standard should be, given her profession.
是的，所以我认为有件事引起了一些反应 ——“负面反应”——正是这样，鉴于她的职业，有一种感觉它不符合应有的标准。
Do you think that’s fair?
你认为这公平吗？
Or as you said, you were happy she pushed back, but should people do that more?
或者正如你所说，你很高兴她的反击，但人们应该这样做更多吗？
When people interview philosophers, they should take them more seriously and actually try to get it, whether their propositions are correct.
当人们采访哲学家时，应该更认真地对待他们，并实际尝试去了解他们的主张是否正确。
It seems to me, too many people stick in the typical interview mode of, “Tell us what’s in your latest book.” Or “What’s up with these incels anyway?” Or “How does this argument imply feminism should evolve for the next century?” Which are okay questions, but they’re too open-ended.
在我看来，太多人坚持典型的采访模式，“告诉我们你最新的书中有什么。”或者“这些非自愿者到底怎么了？”或者“这个论点意味着女权主义应该如何在下个世纪发展？”这些都是好的问题，但它们太开放了。
They’re inviting a blathery response.
他们正在招致喋喋不休的回应。
When I interviewed Richard Prum, the ornithologist — anyone who does birds, you figure is looking for some specific, pointed questions about birds, and he got those.
当我采访鸟类学家理查德·普鲁姆（Richard Prum）时——任何研究鸟类的人，你都会认为他正在寻找一些关于鸟类的具体、尖锐的问题，他得到了这些问题。
Maybe he was the only one who got an interview like that.
也许他是唯一一个接受过这样采访的人。
Relative to him being an ornithologist, he still got the Tyler Cowen style.
相对于他作为一名鸟类学家来说，他仍然具有泰勒·考恩的风格。
The one thing I’ll say is, I was very happy to see that it was, in fact, so well downloaded and listened to.
我要说的一件事是，我很高兴看到它实际上被下载和收听得如此之好。
We definitely see in the stats that listeners are not willing to give certain episodes a chance.
我们在统计数据中确实看到听众不愿意给某些剧集机会。
One of the factors is maybe the topic’s a little more obscure, but it’s pretty clear that one of the factors is also whether they’re a woman.
其中一个因素可能是这个话题有点晦涩难懂，但很明显，因素之一也是他们是否是女性。
Yes, one of the great injustices of podcast life — underreported.
是的，播客生活中最大的不公平之一是——报道不足。
I will say, this year, it’s better news.
我想说，今年，这是更好的消息。
I think actually the female guests who were featured this year — Patricia Fara, Sarah Parcak — they all did pretty well.
我觉得其实今年登场的女嘉宾 ——帕特里夏·法拉、莎拉·帕卡克——她们都表现得很好。
But perhaps it was also aided by the fact that they were talking about things that speak to a typically male audience.
但也许这也得益于他们正在谈论的事情是针对典型男性观众的。
It was the classics and Newton and archeology.
这是经典、牛顿和考古学。
But when you have someone who’s talking about feminism, “Well, maybe I’ll skip that one.
但当有人谈论女权主义时，“好吧，也许我会跳过那个。
That’s not what I want.
那不是我想要的。
I already know what that’s going to be about.”
我已经知道那会是什么了。”
I think, on average, the women on Conversations with Tyler do better than the men.
我认为，平均而言，《与泰勒对话》中的女性比男性做得更好。
The difference, on average, is they’re rarely or never willing to just be a blowhard.
平均而言，不同之处在于他们很少或从不愿意只是吹牛。
They always feel they have to say something of actual substance.
他们总是觉得自己必须说一些实际的实质性内容。
It’s interesting that that is the difference, but I prefer the podcasts with women, as a whole.
有趣的是，这就是差异，但总的来说，我更喜欢女性播客。
I would say, as a simple heuristic, if you, listener, are considering skipping an episode, that is, in fact, a good sign that you should absolutely listen to it.
我想说，作为一个简单的启发式，如果您，听众，正在考虑跳过一集，那实际上是一个好兆头，表明您绝对应该听它。
I think that —
我认为 —
But only for our podcast, not for other people’s podcasts.
但仅限于我们的播客，不适用于其他人的播客。
Fair enough, I’ll say for our podcast.
公平地说，我会为我们的播客说。
Though I feel like that’s been generally true for me.
尽管我觉得这对我来说通常都是正确的。
You are subscribing to a show, in part, because you are recognizing the host’s ability to curate or select people who are interesting, certainly for Conversations with Tyler, but for a number of other interview shows as well.
您订阅某个节目的部分原因是您认识到主持人策划或选择有趣的人的能力，当然是《与泰勒对话》，但也适用于许多其他访谈节目。
By virtue of that guest being on the podcast, that’s a certain certification that you should spend some time with them.
由于该嘉宾出现在播客中，这证明您应该花一些时间与他们在一起。
Now, for other shows, there’s more of the grind of production, like “We have to get an episode out.” Maybe, “This person’s just got a book to promote, and I don’t have a personal connection.” But you’re very much on the record of saying you don’t have anyone on that you don’t actually want to learn from.
现在，对于其他节目来说，制作过程更加艰辛，比如“我们必须制作一集”。也许，“这个人只是要推销一本书，而我没有私人关系。”但你多次公开表示，没有人是你不想向他们学习的。
That may not be true anymore, by the way, but I’m not going to name names.
顺便说一句，这可能不再是真的，但我不会点名。
Some people ask you, and you figure you should do it.
有些人问你，你认为你应该这样做。
They’re very famous.
他们非常有名。
How can I say no?
我怎么能说不呢？
It may bring in some new listeners, but I’m not sure I can say that about every podcast this year.
它可能会带来一些新的听众，但我不确定今年的每个播客都能做到这一点。
To say that another way, I think if you were looking for the overrated episodes of Conversations with Tyler, you would not be looking at the women this year.
换句话说，我想如果你正在寻找被高估的《与泰勒对话》剧集，你今年就不会看女性了。
Correct.
正确的。
It’s the famous people who sometimes are a bit the ones to be suspicious of.
有时候，名人才是值得怀疑的人。
Just compensating differentials.
只是补偿差异。
We talked a little bit about overrated.
我们讨论了一些被高估的问题。
What’s your pick for underrated episodes?
您会选择哪些被低估的剧集？
I don’t see the listened-to numbers.
我没有看到收听的数字。
The Ruth Scurr one on Napoleon in 18th-century history was excellent.
露丝·斯库尔 (Ruth Scurr) 写的一篇关于 18 世纪拿破仑历史的文章非常精彩。
I’m not sure it’s incredibly popular, but that’s probably underrated.
我不确定它是否非常受欢迎，但这可能被低估了。
David Salle — a lot of people just are not connected to the visual arts and painting.
大卫·萨尔（David Salle）——很多人与视觉艺术和绘画没有联系。
That’s probably an underrated episode.
这可能是一个被低估的情节。
Richard Prum, the bird guy — I thought he was one of the very best of the year.
理查德·普鲁姆（Richard Prum），鸟人 ——我认为他是今年最好的之一。
People like Chris Blattman loved it, but I’m not sure in terms of numbers.
像克里斯·布拉特曼这样的人喜欢它，但我不确定具体数字。
I thought we had these three in a row — Sarah Parcak, Dana Gioia, Shadi Bartsch — the three best CWTs in a row ever, and I hope people realize they got that from us.
我认为我们连续三个——莎拉·帕卡克（Sarah Parcak）、达纳·吉奥亚（Dana Gioia）、沙迪·巴特奇（Shadi Bartsch）——连续三个最好的 CWT，我希望人们意识到他们从我们那里得到了这一点。
I think my two picks would be Richard Prum, which definitely underperformed a little bit.
我认为我的两个选择是理查德·普鲁姆（Richard Prum），它的表现肯定有点差。
I think people maybe just said, “Ornithology, birds — what do I care?” But you’re really missing quite a lot by skipping that episode.
我想人们可能只是说，“鸟类学，鸟类 —— 我关心什么？”但跳过那一集你真的会错过很多东西。
The other one, I would submit, is Dana Gioia.
我认为另一位是 Dana Gioia。
For me, the thing that unites some of the very good ones — I would count Ruth Scurr in this as well, but Prum, Gioia — they all had such passion and enthusiasm, and they so clearly still loved what they were doing, that it is just impossible not to pick up on that enthusiasm and decide, “I think I should .
对我来说，将一些非常优秀的人团结在一起的事情 ——我也将露丝·斯卡尔（Ruth Scurr）纳入其中，但普鲁姆（Prum）、乔亚（Gioia）—— 他们都拥有如此的激情和热情，而且他们显然仍然热爱他们正在做的事情，以至于不可能不抓住这种热情并决定，“我认为我应该。
.
。
.”
”。
After I listened to Prum, I started looking at all the birds in my backyard.
听完普鲁姆的讲话后，我开始观察后院的所有鸟儿。
I have 20 varieties of birds in my backyard.
我的后院有 20 种鸟类。
Who would have thought?
谁会想到呢？
Gioia — I felt like my life was impoverished because I couldn’t appreciate the things on a level that .
Gioia — 我觉得我的生活很贫困，因为我无法以那样的水平来欣赏事物。
.
。
.
。
He just seems like a person who consumes it.
他看起来就像是一个消耗它的人。
You call him an information billionaire, and it’s exactly right.
你称他为信息亿万富翁，这是完全正确的。
He seems to have this wealth that he knows how to use.
他似乎拥有这笔他知道如何使用的财富。
Listening to those was wonderful.
听这些真是太棒了。
Dana Gioia, along with, possibly, Niall Ferguson — he’s the guest we’ve had where you can ask him literally anything, and he has a good, coherent answer.
达纳·吉奥亚（Dana Gioia），可能还有尼尔·弗格森（Niall Ferguson）——他是我们邀请的客人，你可以问他任何问题，他都会给出一个很好、连贯的答案。
There aren’t many guests like that.
这样的客人并不多。
I appreciate that he’s one of them.
我很高兴他是其中之一。
He’s to the point with it as well.
他也说到了重点。
What’s remarkable is, he sent you an email afterwards, saying, “Thank you.
值得注意的是，他后来给你发了一封电子邮件，说：“谢谢。
It was a wonderful interview.” He said that he had felt like he was in a fog, and this conversation helped him break out a little bit of that fog.
这是一次精彩的采访。”他说他感觉自己陷入了迷雾，这次谈话帮助他摆脱了一点迷雾。
For someone who was in a fog, that interview is remarkable, but also the fact that we’re all in a fog.
对于一个处于迷雾中的人来说，那次采访是非凡的，但事实上我们都处于迷雾之中。
Empathizing with him in that way, that even this guy who gets so much joy out of things was still feeling a little down on himself, was amazing to me.
以这种方式同情他，即使这个从事物中获得如此多快乐的人仍然对自己感到有点沮丧，这对我来说是惊人的。
On naming production functions
关于生产函数的命名
All right, are you up for some “name that production function”?
好吧，你想知道“生产函数的名称”吗？
Your favorite segment.
你最喜欢的片段。
I’m hardly going to get any of these correct.
我很难把这些都做对。
Your favorite segment, and for listeners as well.
您最喜欢的片段，也是听众最喜欢的片段。
Okay, let’s see.
好吧，让我们看看。
First one: “I think I’ve always been good at finding things.
第一个：“我想我一直很擅长发现东西。
I don’t know if it’s because I’m just good at pattern recognition, but even when I was five, six, seven years old, I could go to a whole patch of clover and reach in and find the four-leaf clover.”
我不知道是不是因为我擅长模式识别，但即使在我五岁、六岁、七岁的时候，我也能走到一整片三叶草前，伸手进去找到四叶草。”
That sounds like Sarah Parcak, the space archaeologist.
这听起来像太空考古学家莎拉·帕卡克（Sarah Parcak）。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
Did I actually get one?
我真的得到了吗？
You got it right.
你说对了。
She’s a space archaeologist, so her visual acuity with pattern recognition is something that she still uses to this day.
她是一名太空考古学家，所以她的视觉敏锐度和模式识别能力至今仍在使用。
So who would have thought you can pick a four-leaf clover out and make a career out of it?
那么谁会想到你可以摘下四叶草并以此为职业呢？
All right, one for one.
好吧，一对一。
Good job.
好工作。
I have that same ability, by the way.
顺便说一句，我也有同样的能力。
I can see a big shelf full of books and immediately find a single title.
我可以看到一个装满书籍的大书架，并立即找到一个书名。
Is that a general ability?
这就是一般能力吗？
Or is it very specific to text, for instance?
或者它是否非常特定于文本？
I think it’s general to the visual, not only text, is my sense.
我认为这是视觉上的普遍现象，而不仅仅是文字，这是我的感觉。
I got a chessboard — that’s not text, but I have a reasonable ability there as well to see a combination, say.
我有一个棋盘——这不是文字，但我也有一定的能力看到组合。
All right, second one.
好吧，第二个。
This is an anti-production function.
这是一个反生产函数。
“I’ll tell you what I am not very good at.
“我会告诉你我不擅长什么。
I don’t think I’m the most inspiring or compelling person.
我不认为我是最鼓舞人心或最有说服力的人。
I’ve gotten a lot of practice at it over the years, but in terms of the early days, in terms of fundraising and pitching people and recruiting, I was never very good at that, B, B minus.
多年来，我在这方面进行了很多练习，但就早期而言，在筹款、推销人员和招聘方面，我一直不太擅长，B，B 减。
I was enough to get to the next stage, but I never ended up being world-class.”
我已经足以进入下一阶段，但我从未成为世界级的。”
Is that Brian Armstrong?
那是布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗吗？
That’s Brian Armstrong.
那是布莱恩·阿姆斯特朗。
He’s underrating himself, but that’s fine.
他低估了自己，但这没关系。
He gave himself some credit for talent recognition and managerial ability, I think it was, but he just doesn’t think he’s got the charisma that he feels he should.
我认为他对自己的人才认可和管理能力给予了一定的认可，但他只是认为自己没有拥有他认为应该拥有的魅力。
But his earnestness comes through, as indeed it did on that podcast, and he may be underrating how much other people value his earnestness.
但他的真诚是显而易见的，就像在那个播客上所做的那样，他可能低估了其他人对他的真诚的重视程度。
All right, two for two.
好吧，二对二。
Here’s the third one.
这是第三个。
“The instrument that I play is really just dialogue and discourse.
“我演奏的乐器实际上只是对话和话语。
I’ve got a strongly evolutionary mindset and this notion of emergence.
我有强烈的进化心态和涌现的概念。
I think that if you’re doing something that’s never been done before, you have to be very humble, recognizing that you don’t know what the right thing to do is, but also nobody else does.
我认为，如果你正在做以前从未做过的事情，你必须非常谦虚，认识到你不知道什么是正确的做法，但其他人也不知道。
In that milieu, you need to create a culture where people are willing to say things and be wrong so that others can say other things, and over time, whatever is right can emerge.”
在这种环境下，你需要创造一种文化，让人们愿意说一些话，也愿意犯错，这样其他人就可以说其他话，随着时间的推移，任何正确的事情都会出现。”
I’ve no idea.
我不知道。
Noubar Afeyan?
努巴尔·阿菲扬？
You’re right.
你是对的。
He was talking about that in the context of running Moderna and —
他是在运行 Moderna 的背景下谈论这一点的，并且 ——
Many other companies.
许多其他公司。
— many other companies, allowing people the scope to make bad arguments because it gets you to the good stuff.
- 许多其他公司，允许人们提出不好的论点，因为它可以让你得到好的东西。
Which I think is a theme we were talking before the recording of Get Back, the Beatles documentary, of just kind of getting the sludge.
我认为这是我们在录制披头士乐队纪录片《回归》之前讨论的一个主题，即“得到污泥”。
Paul was big on like, “We’ve just got to play it poorly, so that we can get somewhere good.”
保罗很喜欢这样的说法：“我们必须打得不好，这样我们才能取得好成绩。”
That’s right, and it worked for him.
没错，这对他有用。
Noubar was also really good because we titled that “On the Permission to Leap.” That’s one of his core ideas, and it was this idea that there comes a point where societal factors, policy factors, whatever, give you that permission to take a big step, and in that case, it was his vaccine development.
努巴尔也非常好，因为我们的标题是“跳跃的许可”。这是他的核心思想之一，正是这个思想认为，社会因素、政策因素等等都会在某个时刻允许你迈出一大步，在这种情况下，这就是他的疫苗开发。
Why have we not leaped more in 2021?
为什么我们在 2021 年没有取得更大的飞跃？
It feels like we were heading in .
感觉就像我们正要进去一样。
.
。
.
。
When we had this conversation a year ago, vaccines were approved — took longer than it should, but we were looking forward to widespread vaccine availability, and surely things would get better.
一年前，当我们进行这次谈话时，疫苗获得批准——花费的时间比应有的时间要长，但我们期待着疫苗的广泛使用，而且事情肯定会变得更好。
It still feels like we’re in a new administration.
我们仍然感觉像是在新政府中。
It’s a new policy regime.
这是一个新的政策制度。
It still feels like we’re not able to make the leaps.
感觉我们仍然无法实现飞跃。
The permission to leap is not there.
不存在跳跃的许可。
Why do you think that is?
你认为这是为什么？
I think a lot of older institutions are broken, maybe permanently so.
我认为很多旧的机构都已经崩溃了，甚至可能是永久性的。
They’re just crippled or not able to do anything other than routine, but I suppose I see the variance in our ability to leap as having gone up.
他们只是残废了或者除了例行公事之外无法做任何事情，但我想我看到我们跳跃能力的差异有所上升。
The leapers leap more quickly and leap higher.
跳跃者跳得更快、跳得更高。
In the biomedical sciences, we’re seeing many different innovations against malaria, against dengue, against sickle cell anemia, CRISPR.
在生物医学领域，我们看到了许多针对疟疾、登革热、镰状细胞贫血症和 CRISPR 的不同创新。
There’s plenty of leaping, but on average, I don’t know, I think this “average is over” idea — we’re seeing it in innovation as well.
有很多跳跃，但平均而言，我不知道，我认为这种“平均已经结束”的想法 ——我们也在创新中看到了它。
Well, I think the innovators are doing it well, but you would think that we would recognize some things are like, “Wow, we’ve been maybe keeping things a little too tied down.” We’re a little too risk-averse in terms of a societal or policy response.
嗯，我认为创新者做得很好，但你可能会认为我们会认识到一些事情，比如，“哇，我们可能一直把事情束缚得太紧了。”在社会或政策反应方面，我们有点过于规避风险。
I’m still confused that we’ve seen this miraculous development of the vaccines, and still there’s this hesitancy.
我仍然感到困惑，我们已经看到了疫苗的奇迹般的发展，但仍然存在这种犹豫。
I would suspect that these new vaccines, like a malaria vaccine, will come more quickly.
我怀疑这些新疫苗，就像疟疾疫苗一样，会来得更快。
But still, it will take far too long.
但仍然需要很长时间。
I think there’s some change in the news cycle, where people just don’t care about so many things.
我认为新闻周期发生了一些变化，人们不再关心很多事情。
They may care for a short while, and then it passes, and the new thing is here.
他们可能会关心一小会儿，然后就过去了，新事物就在这里。
Attention switching is much different than it used to be.
注意力转移与以前有很大不同。
If it’s something where you need a lot of people behind you to get something done, like to get 90 percent vaccinated, that seems much harder than ever before.
如果你需要很多人支持才能完成某件事，比如 90% 的疫苗接种率，那么这似乎比以往任何时候都困难得多。
But if the mass of people — you simply need them to tolerate what you’re doing, and if the law is not hindering you, that may, in some ways, be easier than it used to be because the attention switching is so rapid, it’s harder for them to prove an obstacle.
但是，如果大众——你只是需要他们容忍你正在做的事情，并且如果法律没有阻碍你，那么在某些方面，这可能会比以前更容易，因为注意力转换如此之快，他们更难成为障碍。
Now we have a bunch of problems — vaccinating people, testing, climate change — where you need active participation from a lot of people, and there, we’re having problems.
现在我们有很多问题——“给人们接种疫苗、检测、气候变化”——需要很多人积极参与，而我们就遇到了问题。
The other class of innovations — I think we’re kicking butt, so it’s a weird world.
另一类创新 —— 我认为我们正在努力，所以这是一个奇怪的世界。
Higher variance, I think, is the key.
我认为更高的方差是关键。
All right, you’re three for three on production function.
好吧，你的生产函数是三对三。
Can we keep the trend?
我们能保持趋势吗？
Fourth one: “People who stayed with me in my house have told me that I have a habit of which I was completely unaware — that I sit upstairs, where I’m sitting now, in my study, and I work on my computer.
第四个：“和我一起住在家里的人告诉我，我有一个我完全没有意识到的习惯——我坐在楼上，也就是我现在坐的地方，在我的书房里，我在电脑上工作。
Then, about every half an hour, there’s an enormous bang, and I stamp around the room swearing.
然后，大约每隔半小时，就会发出一声巨大的爆炸声，我在房间里跺脚，咒骂着。
The people in the house are terribly worried that something has gone awfully wrong.
房子里的人都非常担心发生了严重的问题。
Then I get back to work, and everything resumes as usual for the next half an hour, and then it all happens again.
然后我回去工作，接下来的半个小时一切都恢复如常，然后一切又发生了。
I was completely unaware that I did that until several people have told me that I do, but it seems to work.”
我完全没有意识到我这样做了，直到几个人告诉我我这样做了，但这似乎有效。”
That sounds like Niall Ferguson because he has a summer house in Wales.
这听起来很像尼尔·弗格森，因为他在威尔士有一座避暑别墅。
In Wales, things go bad.
在威尔士，事情变得很糟糕。
I agree that it sounds like Niall Ferguson, but you’re wrong, and you broke your streak.
我同意这听起来像尼尔·弗格森，但你错了，你打破了你的连续纪录。
Oh, who is it?
噢，是谁？
This is Patricia Fara.
这是帕特里夏·法拉。
Ah, okay.
啊，好吧。
Yes, surprising answer, I think, because she —
是的，我认为这个答案令人惊讶，因为她 ——
But same country.
但同一个国家。
Yes, same energy.
是的，同样的能量。
This is my favorite from the year, I think, because actually, it describes an element of my own production function, that I talk to myself, and I often get very loud and obnoxious.
我认为这是我今年最喜欢的，因为实际上，它描述了我自己的生产函数的一个元素，即我自言自语，而且我经常变得非常大声和令人讨厌。
Sometimes I scare other people that are around me and have no idea I’m doing it.
有时我会吓到周围的人，他们不知道我在这样做。
Me and Fara got that in common.
我和法拉有这个共同点。
Let’s do two more, and then we’ll call it quits.
我们再做两个，然后就结束了。
“My favorite Onion article was titled ‘NSF Studies Show Science is Hard.’ What is people’s response to that, the fact that science is hard?
“我最喜欢的洋葱文章标题是‘美国国家科学基金会研究表明科学很难’。人们对此有何反应，即科学很难？
A lot of people will go and say, ‘Well, if I’m going to expend a lot of energy, I better do something that somebody else thinks is important.’ They look to the sides, and they think that doing something somebody else thinks is important is their mission.
很多人会说：“好吧，如果我要花费大量精力，我最好做一些别人认为重要的事情。”他们会向侧面看，他们认为做别人认为重要的事情就是他们的使命。
I think about the and I think, ‘What is the coolest thing that I could do with my time now, or this day, this next day ahead of me that would solve something?’”
我会想，‘我现在、或者今天、第二天可以做的最酷的事情是什么，可以解决一些问题？’”
I have no idea on that one.
我对此一无所知。
Maybe I’ll guess Daniel Carpenter, but that’s a stab in the dark.
也许我会猜是丹尼尔·卡彭特，但那是在黑暗中刺伤。
His research subject that I removed because of the context clue is birds.
由于上下文线索我删除了他的研究主题是鸟类。
Then we know it’s Richard Prum.
然后我们就知道这是理查德·普鲁姆。
Richard Prum.
理查德·普鲁姆.
His basic point was he loves birds.
他的基本观点是他喜欢鸟类。
He loves birds, and that guides everything he does.
他热爱鸟类，这指导着他所做的一切。
He doesn’t particularly care about grand research agendas or revealing the answer to big questions.
他并不特别关心宏大的研究议程或揭示重大问题的答案。
He just wants to discover something cool about birds.
他只是想发现一些关于鸟类的很酷的东西。
What do you think?
你觉得怎么样？
Is that a general approach that should be followed?
这是应该遵循的一般方法吗？
Or is that maybe unique to ornithology?
或者这可能是鸟类学所独有的？
Richard’s a great person to study, I think, to learn how to be successful, and that is to care more than the others.
我认为，理查德是一个值得学习的人，学习如何取得成功，那就是比其他人更加关心。
You have to do more than that, but it’s a great starting point.
你必须做的比这更多，但这是一个很好的起点。
All right, last one.
好吧，最后一张。
“The most important thing you can do in that remaining part of your life must be intellectual succession in planning.
“在你余生中，你能做的最重要的事情必须是规划中的智力继承。
Academic life, in my view, has gone off the rails in ways that I never would have imagined in the 1980s when I was starting out.
在我看来，学术生活已经脱轨，这是我在 20 世纪 80 年代刚开始时从未想象过的。
We need new institutions, and I want to spend more time on institution building and less time on book writing in whatever time is left to me, and that should strike terror in my enemies’ hearts.”
我们需要新的机构，我想在剩下的时间里花更多的时间在机构建设上，而不是在写书上，这应该会让我的敌人感到恐惧。”
And that is Niall Ferguson.
那就是尼尔·弗格森。
The terror in the hearts, just the whole Scottish thing, Sir Walter Scott, the thump in the attic in the Welsh summer home.
心中的恐惧，就是整个苏格兰的事情，沃尔特·斯科特爵士，威尔士避暑别墅阁楼上的重击声。
He’s cluing us in that University of Austin is ready to come.
他告诉我们奥斯汀大学已经准备好来了。
I heard him say that, and I’m thinking, “What’s he actually going to do?” I didn’t know, and now I know.
我听到他这么说，我在想：“他到底要做什么？”我不知道，现在我知道了。
You’re an adviser, or what’s your capacity on University of Austin?
您是一名顾问，或者您在奥斯汀大学的职位是什么？
I’m on the advisory board.
我是顾问委员会的成员。
I don’t govern.
我不执政。
I don’t work on it any particular day.
我不会在任何特定的一天工作。
I was asked to be on the advisory board, keen to see what they do.
我被邀请加入顾问委员会，很想看看他们在做什么。
I think innovation in higher ed should be encouraged, but I’m not part of the process.
我认为应该鼓励高等教育的创新，但我不参与这个过程。
A listener on Twitter asked, “What do you think is going to be different there, based on what you see?”
推特上的一位听众问道：“根据你所看到的情况，你认为那里会有什么不同？”
At the University of Austin.
在奥斯汀大学。
We’re very close to T sub zero in University of Austin planning.
我们在奥斯汀大学的规划中非常接近零度以下的目标。
I’m not sure how much anyone knows, but I think they will genuinely teach classic works.
我不知道有多少人知道，但我认为他们会真正教授经典作品。
They will genuinely court STEM majors and give them a rigorous education.
他们会真诚地向 STEM 专业学习，并给予他们严格的教育。
I think they will attract a fair number of students.
我认为他们会吸引相当多的学生。
The push I gave them in the chat I had with their president was to really be a radical university and not just not be Woke, but to change pedagogy quite a bit in innovative ways that took a lot of chances.
在与校长的谈话中，我向他们提出的要求是真正成为一所激进的大学，而不仅仅是唤醒式大学，而是以创新的方式改变教学法，这需要很多机会。
I genuinely have no idea how much they will or will not be doing that, but that was my advice as someone on the advisory board.
我真的不知道他们会或不会这样做多少，但这是我作为顾问委员会成员的建议。
If it were just like a better St. John’s with more STEM majors, well, that would be great.
如果它就像一个更好的圣约翰学院，有更多的 STEM 专业，那就太好了。
I love St. John’s as it is.
我喜欢圣约翰学院的本来面目。
Maybe they’re underperforming relative to what they could be and could do.
也许相对于他们能够成为的人和能够做的事情来说，他们的表现不佳。
They ought to think big and have founder energy and overturn the world.
他们应该胸怀大志，拥有创始人的能量并颠覆世界。
We’ll see.
我们会看到的。
Speaking of founder energy, if we’re thinking about it in terms of starting a company or venture capital or whatever, I think one thing that worries me about it — maybe it’s too early in it, but I don’t see people dropping everything to join us, and they don’t have the skin in the game.
说到创始人的能量，如果我们从创办公司或风险投资或其他什么角度来考虑它，我认为有一件事让我担心 - 也许现在还为时过早，但我没有看到人们放弃一切加入我们，而且他们没有参与其中。
So far — maybe I’m wrong — but so far, none of the big professors or whatever have revoked tenure and said, “I’m full-time University of Austin.” Is that a concern?
到目前为止 ——“也许我错了”—— 但到目前为止，还没有哪个大教授或其他什么人撤销了终身教职并说：“我是奥斯汀大学的全职教授。”这是一个问题吗？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I think the first thing I said is, we’re very close to T sub zero in the planning horizon.
我想我说的第一件事是，我们在规划范围内非常接近零以下。
It’s just so, so early in the game.
事情就是这样，游戏还这么早。
I’m not sure they will succeed by getting well-known people to join.
我不确定他们能否通过吸引知名人士加入而取得成功。
That strategy itself might be a mistake.
该策略本身可能是一个错误。
Most well-known people are somewhat older.
大多数知名人士的年龄都比较大。
Nothing against that, but it could be they revolutionize the world by getting a few 23-year-old YouTubers on board, right?
这没什么可反对的，但他们可能会通过招募一些 23 岁的 YouTube 用户来彻底改变世界，对吗？
Right.
对。
Maybe they should read your forthcoming book on how to spot talent and use that to recruit new professors, or nonprofessors, as the case may be.
也许他们应该阅读您即将出版的关于如何发现人才并利用该书来招募新教授或非教授（视情况而定）的书。
The Beatles didn’t try to hire Frank Sinatra, did they?
披头士乐队并没有试图聘请弗兰克·辛纳屈，不是吗？
No, of course not.
不，当然不是。
Nothing against Frank, but look.
没有什么反对弗兰克的，但是看看。
They did joke about getting Eric Clapton, at one point, to replace George Harrison.
他们确实开玩笑说让埃里克·克莱普顿（Eric Clapton）一度取代乔治·哈里森（George Harrison）。
They didn’t do it.
他们没有这么做。
He played guitar on “While My Guitar Gently Weeps,” but I don’t even like his solo that much.
他在《While My Guitar Gently Weeps》中弹吉他，但我不太喜欢他的独奏。
Billy Preston was their really good move.
比利·普雷斯顿是他们真正的好举动。
He was fantastic on all those songs, both on the albums and in the documentary.
他对所有这些歌曲都非常出色，无论是在专辑中还是在纪录片中。
A much better temporary acquisition than Eric Clapton was, I think.
我认为，这是比埃里克·克莱普顿更好的临时收购。
I referenced your book.
我参考了你的书。
Last year, I think you said a draft was finished, but that was where it stood.
去年，我想你说草案已经完成，但事实就是如此。
Any updates on the book with Daniel Gross on talent?
丹尼尔·格罗斯关于人才的书有什么更新吗？
The book is called Talent.
这本书的名字叫《人才》。
It’s being published by St. Martin’s on May 22.
该书将于 5 月 22 日由圣马丁出版社出版。
About a week ago, we did all the final, final proofreading on the galleys, the jacket copy, and all that.
大约一周前，我们对厨房、封面副本等进行了所有最后的校对。
It is done, delivered, ready to be published.
它已经完成、交付、准备发布。
It will be out in, what, five months, May.
它将在五个月内发布，即五月。
All right.
好吧。
I’m very excited, and Daniel has been absolutely wonderful to work with.
我非常兴奋，与丹尼尔一起工作非常愉快。
Another listener on Twitter asked if we could revisit some of your picks, culture picks from 2011.
Twitter 上的另一位听众询问我们是否可以重新审视您的一些选择，即 2011 年的文化选择。
I did that two years ago since it was the end of the decade.
我两年前就这样做了，因为当时已经是本世纪末了。
We went back to 2009 in that case and looked at your pop culture picks from 2009.
在这种情况下，我们回到 2009 年，看看您对 2009 年流行文化的选择。
We didn’t do it last year, but since he asked, I went back and looked at your picks from 2011.
去年我们没有这么做，但既然他问了，我就回去看了你们 2011 年的选择。
Let’s do it.
让我们开始吧。
Movies, books, and music.
电影、书籍和音乐。
Do you remember anything from your picks then?
那么你还记得你的选择吗？
No, I have no idea what was in what year.
不，我不知道哪一年发生了什么。
Some things are in iconic years, like Sergeant Pepper was 1967, but whether it was 2012 or 2011 — no idea, especially for books.
有些事情发生在标志性的年份，比如 1967 年的《佩珀中士》，但究竟是 2012 年还是 2011 年 ——不知道，尤其是对于书籍而言。
We’ll do movies first.
我们先拍电影。
The big one is that you just come out of the gate saying, “I didn’t like anything from Hollywood or even indies in 2011.” Almost all your pics are foreign.
最重要的是，你刚一走出大门就会说：“我不喜欢好莱坞的任何东西，甚至不喜欢 2011 年的独立电影。”你的照片几乎都是外国的。
The decline of Hollywood had already started.
好莱坞的衰落已经开始了。
There are so many sequels, a trend that has continued, so many tentpole franchises.
有如此多的续集，这种趋势一直在持续，有如此多的支柱系列。
Mostly, they’re boring.
大多数情况下，它们很无聊。
How’s that compared to this year, though?
与今年相比怎么样？
I think a lot of your picks this year are fairly mainstream.
我认为你今年的很多选择都是相当主流的。
There’s Dune, Get Back.
有沙丘，回来吧。
What else have you got?
你还有什么？
Minari.
米纳里。
They’re pretty standard fare, things you would see on pretty much any critic’s list.
它们是相当标准的票价，你几乎可以在任何评论家的清单上看到这些东西。
I don’t think Minari is standard Hollywood fare.
我不认为米纳里是标准的好莱坞票价。
Maybe it’s standard indie fare.
也许这是标准的独立票价。
But it was Oscar-winning.
但它获得了奥斯卡奖。
Get Back is eight hours.
回来是八个小时。
It’s a New Zealand director.
这是一位新西兰导演。
It’s reassembled from footage of another movie.
它是根据另一部电影的镜头重新组装的。
It’s a documentary of a documentary.
这是一部纪录片中的纪录片。
It’s a fundamentally strange thing.
这从根本上来说是一件奇怪的事情。
Dune took forever to make.
沙丘花了很长时间才完成。
It’s a French-Canadian director.
这是一位法裔加拿大导演。
The movie’s like a running commentary on Islam.
这部电影就像是对伊斯兰教的连续评论。
It’s tentpole in the sense that the novel is what, from 1965?
从某种意义上来说，它是支柱，这部 1965 年的小说是什么？
But it’s a weird pick, and it’s not on a lot of best-of lists this year, which I find baffling.
但这是一个奇怪的选择，而且它没有出现在今年的很多最佳榜单上，这让我感到困惑。
It’s highly imperfect, but to not put that movie on your list at all — just for the soundtrack, the visuals — seems to me criminal.
它非常不完美，但根本不把那部电影放在你的清单上 ——仅仅为了配乐、视觉效果——在我看来是犯罪行为。
Dune was one of the three I saw this year, and I was glad I did it.
沙丘是我今年看到的三个沙丘之一，我很高兴我做到了。
Okay, let’s go through your 2011 list really quickly.
好的，让我们快速浏览一下 2011 年的清单。
Sure.
当然。
All right, number one — in no particular order, I think — but number one was Incendies.
好吧，第一名——我认为排名不分先后——但第一名是《Incendies》。
Do you remember what that’s about?
你还记得那是什么吗？
That is by the same director of Dune.
这是《沙丘》的同一位导演的作品。
Oh, is that Denis Villeneuve?
哦，那是丹尼斯·维伦纽瓦吗？
Yes, that’s his breakthrough movie.
是的，那是他的突破性电影。
It’s incredible.
太不可思议了。
I didn’t know that.
我不知道。
I’d never heard of it.
我从来没有听说过。
French Canadian movie, mostly set in Lebanon.
法国加拿大电影，大部分以黎巴嫩为背景。
Highly recommended, whether or not you like Dune.
无论您是否喜欢《沙丘》，都强烈推荐。
That was a good pick.
这是一个不错的选择。
It’s held up very well.
它保持得很好。
The director has proven his merits repeatedly, and the market agrees.
导演多次证明了自己的优点，市场也认同。
I’m a fan of Denis Villeneuve.
我是丹尼斯·维伦纽瓦的粉丝。
Obviously, Arrival was great.
显然，《抵达》很棒。
I can’t think of the Mexican drug movie off the top of my head.
我无法立即想到墨西哥毒品电影。
Is it Sicario?
是西卡里奥吗？
Sicario — awesome.
边境杀手 ——太棒了。
It was interesting, yes.
是的，这很有趣。
He is one of the only directors today where, when he now makes something, I know I will go and see it.
他是当今唯一的导演之一，当他现在制作一些东西时，我知道我会去看它。
Well, you must see Incendies.
好吧，你一定要看看《焦土》。
So far, I’m on a roll.
到目前为止，我进展顺利。
What’s next?
接下来是什么？
All right, number two: Uncle Boonmee Who Can Recall His Past Lives.
好吧，第二名：能回忆前世的布米叔叔。
Possibly the best movie of the last 20 years.
可能是过去 20 年最好的电影。
I’m impressed by myself.
我对自己印象深刻。
It’s a Thai movie.
这是一部泰国电影。
It’s very hard to explain.
这很难解释。
I’ve seen it three times since.
从那以后我已经看过三遍了。
A lot of other people have it as either their favorite movie ever or in a top-10 status, but a large screen is a benefit.
很多人都把它列为他们最喜欢的电影或跻身前十名，但大屏幕是一个好处。
If you’re seeing the movie, pay very close attention to its sounds and to the sonic world it creates, not just the images.
如果您正在看这部电影，请密切关注它的声音和它所创造的声音世界，而不仅仅是图像。
All right, number three: Of Gods and Men.
好吧，第三点：《神与人》。
You remember that one?
你还记得那个吗？
I don’t know, the first two picks were better.
我不知道，前两个选择更好。
It’s loosely based on the lives of some monks in Algeria, French Christian monks.
它大致取材于阿尔及利亚一些僧侣（法国基督教僧侣）的生活。
Oh, that.
哦，那个。
I thought it was a different movie.
我以为这是一部不同的电影。
That was pretty good.
那是相当不错了。
Yes, that was good.
是的，那很好。
Number four: Even the Rain, a Spanish movie filmed in Bolivia.
第四名：《Even the Rain》，一部在玻利维亚拍摄的西班牙电影。
You remember that one?
你还记得那个吗？
Yes, but not well.
是的，但不太好。
There are a lot of culturally specific movies that draw you in when you watch.
有很多具有特定文化背景的电影在您观看时会吸引您。
Maybe they’re not that universal.
也许它们并不那么普遍。
They’re very good movies, but they don’t stick with you.
它们是非常好的电影，但它们不会让你留下深刻的印象。
That’s fine.
没关系。
Number five: Melancholia.
第五：忧郁症。
Beautiful visuals, maybe too overblown, but an interesting film.
美丽的视觉效果，也许过于夸张，但却是一部有趣的电影。
Then a couple other you gave shout-outs to — you said, “Drive with Ryan Gosling had excellent moments and scenes.
然后你对另外几个人大喊大叫——你说，“和瑞恩·高斯林一起开车有很棒的时刻和场景。
Moneyball was a good, but not great, movie.
点球成金是一部不错的电影，但不是很棒的电影。
It was a great movie about business.”
这是一部关于商业的精彩电影。”
It was a very good Hollywood movie, but you’ve already read the book, so you know how it’s going to turn out.
这是一部非常好的好莱坞电影，但你已经读过这本书，所以你知道结果会如何。
It’s all very stereotypical, super well executed.
这一切都非常刻板，执行得非常好。
Pretty good dialogue in the old-school sense of the term, but again, it didn’t stick with me.
从老派意义上来说，这是相当不错的对话，但同样，它并不适合我。
But Moneyball as a concept, I just wrote a book on talent, my goodness.
但点球成金作为一个概念，我刚刚写了一本关于人才的书，天哪。
There should be a movie version of that, and that was as good of a movie version as we might have expected, so it’s still a thumbs up.
应该有一个电影版本，这和我们预期的电影版本一样好，所以它仍然是一个竖起大拇指。
All right, moving to best books.
好吧，转向最佳书籍。
You had a number of lists of best books, but you had one post where you said, here’s essentially your top three across the genres.
你有很多最好的书清单，但你在一篇文章中说，这基本上是你在各个类型中排名前三的书。
Number one, Steven Pinker, Better Angels of Our Nature.
第一名，史蒂文·平克（Steven Pinker），《我们本性的更好的天使》。
That book is still talked about.
那本书至今仍被人们津津乐道。
I would say a very good pick.
我想说这是一个非常好的选择。
Maybe I’m more skeptical about the Pinker worldview than I was back then, but an excellent book.
也许我对平克的世界观比当时更加怀疑，但这是一本很棒的书。
Walter Isaacson, Steve Jobs — his bio.
沃尔特·艾萨克森、史蒂夫·乔布斯——他的简历。
I’ve since heard from people who knew Jobs, and/or knew people who knew Jobs, that the portrait was not entirely accurate.
从那以后，我从认识乔布斯的人和/或认识认识乔布斯的人那里听说，这幅肖像并不完全准确。
I can’t assess that myself.
我自己无法评估这一点。
It’s still a wonderfully written book about a very important figure, but maybe he’s too negative on Jobs.
这仍然是一本写得很精彩的书，讲述了一个非常重要的人物，但也许他对乔布斯过于消极了。
Maybe Jobs just wasn’t a foot-stomping tyrant who yelled at everyone.
也许乔布斯并不是一个对所有人大喊大叫、跺脚的暴君。
He got a lot done.
他做了很多事。
I have an iPhone still in my pocket.
我口袋里还放着一部 iPhone。
I would say maybe Jobs has aged better than the book, but it’s still a great book to read.
我想说也许乔布斯比这本书更老了，但这仍然是一本很棒的书。
Just take it with a grain of salt.
只要持保留态度即可。
What do you think of Isaacson, generally, as a biographer?
作为一名传记作家，您总体上如何看待艾萨克森？
I know a lot of people like to think his Leonardo da Vinci biography —
我知道很多人喜欢认为他的达芬奇传记 ——
I think, if you’re looking to read one book on Leonardo, it’s a very good first or only book to read.
我认为，如果你想读一本关于列奥纳多的书，这是一本非常好的第一本书或唯一一本书。
But if you’ve read, say, more than 10 books on Leonardo, while it’s fine, it doesn’t add that much.
但如果你读过 10 多本关于达·芬奇的书，虽然这很好，但并没有增加那么多。
I’m happy to recommend it, but it wasn’t, for me, a great experience.
我很高兴推荐它，但对我来说，这并不是一次很棒的经历。
But it’s a well-done book.
但这是一本做得很好的书。
Who’s your pick for best biographer?
您认为谁是最佳传记作家？
Living, let’s say.
生活，就说吧。
Is it Ruth Scurr?
是露丝·斯库尔吗？
Oh, living.
哦，活着。
I’m, right now, reading the Andrew Roberts biography of King George III, the last king of America.
我现在正在阅读安德鲁·罗伯茨为美国最后一位国王乔治三世国王撰写的传记。
Roberts has this wonderful book on Napoleon and a book on Churchill I haven’t read yet, but people think is excellent.
罗伯茨有一本关于拿破仑的精彩书和一本关于丘吉尔的书，我还没读过，但人们认为非常棒。
I don’t know if he’s top, but he’s top in my mind right now.
我不知道他是否是顶级的，但他现在在我心目中是顶级的。
He’s done great work, and the King George book is excellent.
他做得很好，乔治王的书也很棒。
The last one in your best books list: Haruki Murakami, 1Q84.
你最好的书单上的最后一本：村上春树，1Q84。
I would like to read it again, which is a positive sign.
我想再读一遍，这是一个积极的信号。
I read some of what I read then — maybe all of it — in German because it came out first in German.
我当时读到的一些内容 ——或许全部都是德语——因为它首先以德语出版。
For me, reading a book in German and in English — that’s different.
对我来说，读德语书和英语书 ——这是不同的。
But high marks to it and to him, and he should have won a Nobel Prize by now, and I say a good pick.
但对它和他来说都是很高的评价，他现在应该获得诺贝尔奖了，我说这是一个很好的选择。
I’ll run quickly through best music since you had, it looks like, 11 picks for best music.
我会快速浏览一下最好的音乐，因为你看起来有 11 个最佳音乐的选择。
I’ll just run through this really quick.
我会很快讲完这个。
Not 12.
不是12。
11.
11.
In no particular order, Abigail Washburn, City of Refuge.
排名不分先后，阿比盖尔·沃什伯恩，避难城。
She, I think, is good friends with Sarah Parcak, Abigail Washburn, I learned.
据我所知，我认为她和莎拉·帕卡克、阿比盖尔·沃什伯恩是好朋友。
That’s interesting.
这很有趣。
She hasn’t done as much lately.
她最近没有做那么多。
I think she’s been raising children.
我认为她一直在抚养孩子。
She’s wife of Béla Fleck.
她是贝拉·弗莱克的妻子。
He just came out with a new CD.
他刚刚推出了一张新CD。
Her work has held up very well, especially the integration of Chinese music with bluegrass and old-timey and folk sources.
她的作品非常出色，尤其是中国音乐与蓝草音乐以及古老民间音乐的融合。
Good pick.
不错的选择。
Lykke Li, Wounded Rhymes.
Lykke Li，《受伤的韵律》。
She’s a Swedish artist.
她是一位瑞典艺术家。
I haven’t followed her lately.
我最近没关注她。
She never struck me as a long-trajectory artist, but that’s still good work.
我从来没有觉得她是一位长期发展的艺术家，但这仍然是一部好作品。
She had her own sound.
她有自己的声音。
It was emotionally resonant.
这是情感上的共鸣。
I’m still happy with that pick.
我仍然对这个选择感到满意。
Okay.
好的。
James Blake, a couple of albums from him.
詹姆斯·布莱克（James Blake），他的几张专辑。
I didn’t like his very latest, but his first few are wonderful and create their own sound worlds and had a big impact.
我不喜欢他的最新作品，但他的前几首作品非常棒，创造了自己的声音世界，产生了巨大的影响。
Good pick.
不错的选择。
Let me run through the rest of these, and you can react to all of them as a mass.
让我浏览一下其余的内容，您可以对所有这些内容做出整体反应。
St. Vincent, Strange Mercy.
圣文森特，奇异的慈悲。
Okay, she has become a bigger deal.
好吧，她已经变得更大了。
Good pick.
不错的选择。
Was that 2011?
那是2011年吗？
Yes, it’s very hipster of you to have some of these on here.
是的，你在这里放一些这样的东西真是太时髦了。
St. Vincent — quite a tastemaker you are.
圣文森特——你真是一位时尚引领者。
Shabazz Palaces, Black Up.
沙巴兹宫殿，黑色。
That hasn’t stuck with me.
这并没有困扰我。
I’ll say, not a great pick.
我会说，这不是一个很好的选择。
Miles Davis, Live in Europe 1967.
迈尔斯·戴维斯，1967 年欧洲现场演出。
Sure, but that’s a no-brainer.
当然可以，但那是理所当然的。
It was just released that year.
那一年刚刚发布。
This May Be My Last Time Singing: Raw African-American Gospel on 45RPM 1957–1982.
这可能是我最后一次唱歌：45RPM 的原始非裔美国人福音，1957-1982 年。
Well, that’s a good pick, but every release in that genre is excellent.
嗯，这是一个不错的选择，但该类型的每个版本都非常出色。
It didn’t require any intelligence on my part.
它不需要我有任何情报。
Wilco, The Whole Love.
威尔科，《全部的爱》。
I think I only listen still to two or three Wilco albums, the famous ones, Yankee Hotel Foxtrot.
我想我只听了两三张 Wilco 的专辑，著名的《Yankee Hotel Foxtrot》。
They’ve become quite underrated, but they’ve boiled down to a two- or three-hour set, rather than their lesser albums.
他们已经被严重低估了，但他们已经归结为两三个小时的专辑，而不是他们的较小的专辑。
Pretty good pick, but I don’t listen to that CD anymore.
不错的选择，但我不再听那张 CD了。
The Smile Sessions, the Beach Boys.
微笑会议、海滩男孩。
I listen to it all the time, including the cuts on YouTube of Brian Wilson doing that in concert.
我一直在听，包括 YouTube 上布莱恩·威尔逊 (Brian Wilson) 演唱会的片段。
Incredible pick.
令人难以置信的选择。
Some of the greatest music ever created in the 20th century.
20 世纪创作的一些最伟大的音乐。
If there is another documentary in the style of Get Back for any other musical group, who should it be?
如果还有一部类似《回归》风格的纪录片，适合其他任何音乐团体，那应该是谁？
There is a new Brian Wilson documentary, either out or about to come out, which I haven’t seen yet.
有一部新的布莱恩·威尔逊纪录片，已经上映或即将上映，我还没看过。
Probably, it’s incredible.
也许，这太不可思议了。
How can it not be?
怎么可能不是呢？
He still deserves much more attention.
他仍然值得更多的关注。
He was the person where Paul McCartney thought, “This is my rival.” That says it all.
保罗·麦卡特尼认为他是“这是我的对手”。这说明了一切。
Paul Simon was the other one.
保罗·西蒙是另一位。
Indeed by Oren Ambarchi and Jim O’Rourke, as an LP.
事实上，由 Oren Ambarchi 和 Jim O’Rourke 作为 LP 创作。
Indeed.
的确。
I can’t even place it.
我什至无法放置它。
What did I say?
我说什么了？
You said, “A real winner.
你说：“一个真正的赢家。
Beautiful sound.”
美妙的声音。”
Well, there you go.
好吧，就这样吧。
It must be true then.
那么这一定是真的。
Opika Pende: Africa at 78 RPM.
Opika Pende：非洲，转速为 78 RPM。
Again, that’s like the old blues cuts.
再说一遍，这就像古老的蓝调剪辑。
Old African popular music — any halfway reasonable collection of it’s going to be excellent.
古老的非洲流行音乐 ——任何合理的收藏都会很棒。
Takes no brains or insight, but yes, good pick.
不需要大脑或洞察力，但是是的，不错的选择。
Then later in the post, you say, “The artists I listened to the most this year was probably Lonnie Mack, followed by John Fahey.
然后在帖子的后面，你说，“今年我听最多的艺术家可能是 Lonnie Mack，其次是 John Fahey。
The two best concerts I saw were Satyagraha at the Met.”
我看过的最好的两场音乐会是大都会艺术博物馆的 Satyagraha 音乐会。”
Sure.
当然。
I saw that with Yana.
我在亚娜身上看到了这一点。
We had second-row seats, right behind Philip Glass.
我们坐在第二排，就在菲利普·格拉斯后面。
Oh, nice.
哦，不错。
Saw the back of his head.
看到了他的后脑勺。
If we had been producing CWT, you could have leaned over and said, “Come on.” He’s on our list and has been since the beginning.
如果我们一直在生产 CWT，你可能会靠过来说：“来吧。”他从一开始就在我们的名单上。
More people should listen to Lonnie Mack, The Wham of That Memphis Man.
更多的人应该听朗尼·麦克的《孟菲斯男人的威力》。
One of the very best LPs of its age.
当时最好的密纹唱片之一。
Early guitar hero, incredible blues guitarist, has a lot of energy, has founder energy, has a sense of impending death and doom.
早期的吉他英雄，令人难以置信的布鲁斯吉他手，有大量的能量，有创始人的能量，有一种即将到来的死亡和厄运的感觉。
It doesn’t seem that well known, however.
然而，它似乎并不那么出名。
Do you know it?
你知道吗？
No.
不。
Try it.
尝试一下。
Okay.
好的。
It seems like you’re standing behind your picks.
看来你站在你的选择后面。
You feel like they’ve aged well.
你感觉他们已经老了。
I’m not sure it’s for me to say.
我不确定这是否该由我来说。
HOLMES: I think you can only say how well you feel like your picks have stood up.
福尔摩斯：我想你只能说你感觉自己的选择是正确的。
It sounds like you would make them again, in other words.
换句话说，听起来你会再次制作它们。
I would make them again.
我会再做一次。
I’m sure I missed stuff, but they sound somewhat ahead of their time.
我确信我错过了一些东西，但它们听起来有点超前。
Those are the 2011 picks.
这些是 2011 年的选秀。
Now we’re going to move on to a grab bag of Twitter questions.
现在我们将继续讨论 Twitter 问题。
First one: Jeff McCarty on Twitter asks, “Underrated or overrated, the Conversations with Tyler podcast?” I looked, and we have a 4.8-star rating out of 5, for what it’s worth.
第一个：杰夫·麦卡蒂在 Twitter 上问道：“《与泰勒对话》播客被低估还是高估了？”我看了一下，我们的评分是 4.8 星（满分 5 分），物有所值。
Are we overrated or underrated?
我们是被高估了还是被低估了？
Or correctly rated?
或者正确评价？
I think a lot of the episodes with women guests are quite underrated.
我认为很多女性嘉宾的剧集都被低估了。
That would be the point I would make.
这就是我要表达的观点。
Maybe CEOs are, overall, the somewhat overrated category.
总体而言，首席执行官也许是被高估的一类人。
At any given point, as we veer in composition of guests, that’s how you’ll know.
在任何特定时刻，当我们改变客人的构成时，您就会知道。
COWEN: That’s the best predictor of whether it’s over- or underrated.
COWEN：这是预测它是否被高估或低估的最佳指标。
Correct.
正确的。
The next question, Dwarkesh Patel: “Tyler said a while back that one goal of his podcast was to teach people to ask better questions.
下一个问题，德瓦克什·帕特尔（Dwarkesh Patel）：“泰勒不久前说过，他的播客的一个目标是教人们提出更好的问题。
Is that still a major goal, and how well does he think the podcast has been able to teach that?”
这仍然是一个主要目标吗？他认为播客在这方面的教学效果如何？”
Apparently, it taught him.
显然，这件事教会了他。
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
N=1, but yes.
N=1，但是是的。
Well done, Dwarkesh.
干得好，矮人。
Question three from @stillfewer: “Did Deutsch convince you that Popper’s philosophy is more profound than you had thought?
@stillfewer 的问题三：“多伊奇是否让您相信波普尔的哲学比您想象的更深刻？
Do you think he solved the problem of induction, for example?”
例如，你认为他解决了归纳问题吗？”
No, Deutsch convinced me that there’s often a lot of hot air behind Popper.
不，多伊奇让我相信波普尔背后经常有很多空谈。
He didn’t argue very well on Popper’s behalf.
他没有很好地代表波普尔进行辩论。
Deutsch is way smarter than I am, but he seemed to me, in some fundamental ways, a dogmatist and not really able to defend Popper very well — that he’s made up his mind.
多伊奇比我聪明得多，但在我看来，在某些基本方面，他是一个教条主义者，并不能很好地为波普尔辩护——他已经下定决心了。
And you get a particular kind of emphatic statement, but I thought, at the philosophical level, his defenses were weak.
你会得到一种特殊的强调陈述，但我认为，在哲学层面上，他的辩护是薄弱的。
Someone made the comment — and I wonder if you agree with it — that maybe that’s just a casualty of the fact that it’s only an hour interview, and he simply doesn’t have the time, and in general, your style is to make your point and move on.
有人发表了评论 —— 我想知道你是否同意它 —— 也许这只是一个事实的牺牲品，因为这只是一个小时的采访，而他根本没有时间，总的来说，你的风格是表达你的观点并继续前进。
Does he have the time to maybe go into the depths to give you the deep defense?
他是否有时间深入到深处为你提供纵深防守？
Or does he have to, on some level, just assert?
或者他是否必须在某种程度上断言？
I think there are ways, even in a sentence or two, you could show higher depth or defensibility.
我认为有一些方法，即使是一两句话，你也可以表现出更高的深度或防御性。
There’s this odd feature of Popperianism — it’s a bit like Misesianism.
波普尔主义有一个奇怪的特征——它有点像米塞斯主义。
It somehow attracts a lot of dogmatists.
它在某种程度上吸引了很多教条主义者。
I don’t know why.
我不知道为什么。
You would think a philosophy that emphasizes fallibility and refutation wouldn’t do that, but it does.
你可能会认为强调错误和反驳的哲学不会做到这一点，但它确实做到了。
Next question from @gasca.
@gasca 的下一个问题。
Asked a number of ones.
问了好几个了。
I think the one I’ll pick is, “We talked about university curriculum, but if you could do whatever you wanted, how would you change elementary, middle school, high school curricula?”
我想我会选择的是，“我们讨论了大学课程，但如果你可以做任何你想做的事，你会如何改变小学、初中、高中课程？”
I don’t think I know enough to say, but intuitively, it strikes me as somewhat absurd that we group together children all of the same age.
我认为我知道的还不够多，但直觉上，我们把所有同龄的孩子聚集在一起，这让我觉得有点荒谬。
There’s an obvious staggering problem.
有一个明显的令人震惊的问题。
But ideally you would want younger children always to be interacting with older children, and older children to take on a partial role of teacher and mentor, older peer.
但理想情况下，你会希望年幼的孩子总是与年长的孩子互动，而年长的孩子则扮演老师和导师、年长同伴的部分角色。
The idea that there’s the second grade, the third grade, the fourth grade — in my gut, I feel that has to be wrong, and you’re inducing the kids to bring out the worst in each other.
那种认为有二年级、三年级、四年级的想法——在我的直觉中，我觉得这一定是错误的，你在诱导孩子们互相暴露出最坏的一面。
I don’t know how to fix that, but that’s where my attention would point — on that assumption that you group by age seems barbaric.
我不知道如何解决这个问题，但这就是我的注意力所指向的地方——按年龄分组的假设似乎很野蛮。
Somewhat related to that, you’re thinking about how do you spot talent.
与此有些相关的是，你正在考虑如何发现人才。
You also think a lot about mentorship, and you’ve set up programs that are, to some extent, about mentorship and trying to identify talent.
您还对指导进行了很多思考，并且您已经制定了在某种程度上与指导和试图识别人才有关的计划。
Have you thought much about the role of parenting in bringing out the potential in a child, either for good or for bad?
您是否认真思考过养育子女在激发孩子潜力方面所扮演的角色，无论是好是坏？
Well, I’ve been a parent.
嗯，我已经为人父母了。
Still am, but —
仍然是，但是 —
And now a grandparent.
现在已经是祖父母了。
Yana is now grown.
现在雅娜已经长大了。
I think what you are and how you are — that is more important than anything you tell them, and how you treat your spouse or partner is more important than how you treat them.
我认为你是谁以及你是怎样的人——这比你告诉他们的任何事情都更重要，而你如何对待你的配偶或伴侣比你如何对待他们更重要。
They will learn by example.
他们将以身作则。
Primary contributions tend to be genetic, but at the margin, family culture really matters.
主要贡献往往是遗传因素，但在边缘，家庭文化确实很重要。
And you see this — I think it’s misleadingly called tiger-mom parenting, but whatever you want to call it, it has worked in some way.
你看这个 —— 我认为这被称为“虎妈育儿法”，这是一种误导，但无论你想怎么称呼它，它在某种程度上都起到了作用。
Now, it’s not my style, but it proves parenting style can work.
现在，这不是我的风格，但它证明了养育方式是可行的。
You have to figure out what’s a version of that that can work for me.
你必须找出适合我的版本。
I would agree with you mostly, as stated, but I’m, in particular, thinking, too, about very young children because I have two very young children.
如前所述，我基本上同意你的观点，但我也特别考虑非常年幼的孩子，因为我有两个非常年幼的孩子。
And I think it is about how you comport yourself and how you interact with your spouse, but also how you treat them and model interactions with them, recognizing that they’re not just little adults.
我认为这关系到你如何表现自己以及如何与你的配偶互动，还关系到你如何对待他们并与他们建立互动模型，认识到他们不仅仅是小成年人。
And for me, that’s one of the hardest things to learn to do, is to recognize that a four-year-old simply doesn’t have the emotional development, say, to have a reasoned discussion on something.
对我来说，最难学会做的事情之一就是认识到一个四岁的孩子根本不具备情感发展能力，无法对某件事进行理性的讨论。
They want a structure from you.
他们想要你的一个结构。
They do.
他们确实这么做了。
Which, maybe it’s not your intuition to feel totally comfortable providing that because you’re used to being reasonable with other people.
也许你的直觉并不觉得完全舒服，因为你习惯于与他人讲道理。
There are models of education, like the progressive model of education of John Dewey, that, in part, are premised on this notion that as we become adults, we forget what it was like to actually be a child.
有一些教育模式，例如约翰·杜威的进步教育模式，其部分前提是这样的观念：当我们成为成年人时，我们会忘记小时候的实际情况。
That is one of the core challenges of being a parent, is to remember what it was like for you when you were really young.
这是作为父母的核心挑战之一，就是记住你年轻时的情况。
Do you think, in general, that’s an underrated thing that we have this loss of memory?
你认为，总的来说，我们的记忆丧失是一件被低估的事情吗？
How well do you remember how you were at three or four?
你还记得自己三四岁的样子吗？
Very well.
很好。
COWEN: It’s hard for me to know how well.
COWEN：我很难知道到底有多好。
I have the feeling I’ve changed less over the years than most people, that I was a bit older, young, and now being older, I’m still somewhat young.
我感觉这些年来我的变化比大多数人要少，我有点老了，年轻了，现在年纪大了，我仍然有点年轻。
I suspect the main market failure you see with parents is their mode of interaction is driven by narcissism or their own problems within the family unit rather than concern for the kid, rather than, well, they can’t remember what they were like.
我怀疑你在父母身上看到的主要市场失败是他们的互动方式是由自恋或他们自己在家庭单位内的问题驱动的，而不是对孩子的关心，而不是，好吧，他们不记得自己是什么样的。
I would think that’s pretty low on the list of what is going wrong.
我认为这在问题列表中排得很靠后。
Do you think it’s generally true in the sense that we, maybe conveniently, are just willing to tolerate a certain kind of — mistreatment is the wrong word — but we will humiliate our kids in ways that we would never humiliate another adult by, for instance, having a conversation about them in their presence, where you talk about some bad behavior or something.
你是否认为这通常是正确的，因为我们也许很方便，只是愿意容忍某种“虐待”这个词是错误的，但我们会以我们永远不会羞辱另一个成年人的方式羞辱我们的孩子，例如，当着他们的面谈论他们，谈论一些不好的行为或其他什么。
I try not to do that.
我尽量不这样做。
Can I say for sure I’ve never done it?
我可以肯定地说我从来没有做过吗？
John Dewey would be proud.
约翰·杜威会感到自豪。
Yes, John Dewey would be proud.
是的，约翰·杜威会感到自豪。
I don’t find that so difficult to avoid.
我觉得这并不难避免。
I think, in all those ways, you should be quite respectful of your kids.
我认为，从所有这些方面来说，你应该非常尊重你的孩子。
Does that suggest that, for instance, should we actually be treating kids more seriously?
例如，这是否表明我们实际上应该更认真地对待孩子？
For instance, thinking about extending voter rights at a younger age and things like that?
例如，考虑在年轻时扩大选民权利之类的事情？
Or is that just a different question to you?
或者这对你来说只是一个不同的问题？
I’m not sure extending voter rights to kids would matter much.
我不确定将选民权利扩大到孩子是否会有多大影响。
There’s Coasian bargaining within the family.
家族内部存在科亚式的讨价还价。
I would say I’m not opposed, but I’m not for it.
我想说我不反对，但也不赞成。
Another intuition I have is, children feel less in control than you, as a parent, realize.
我的另一个直觉是，孩子们感觉自己的控制能力比作为父母的你意识到的要少。
In ways that don’t even matter, you want to give them chances to feel in control, like in a conversation or an interaction.
在一些无关紧要的方面，你想让他们有机会感受到掌控感，比如在对话或互动中。
Just hang back a bit and let them own things and own the structure of your interaction with them, more than is typically the case.
只是稍微退一步，让他们拥有自己的东西并拥有你与他们互动的结构，比通常的情况更多。
I don’t have any real evidence that that has positive benefit, but I know it’s how I act.
我没有任何真正的证据表明这有积极的好处，但我知道这就是我的行为方式。
It feels to me like, at the very least, it’s good for me.
对我来说，至少，这对我有好处。
I don’t see that it’s likely to be harming them, so there you go.
我认为这不会伤害他们，所以就这样吧。
All right, moving on.
好吧，继续。
Dallas Floer, fellow producer of Conversations with Tyler, asks, Limp Bizkit’s new album — overrated or underrated?
《Conversations with Tyler》的制作人达拉斯·弗洛尔 (Dallas Floer) 问道，Limp Bizkit 的新专辑 — 被高估还是低估？
Since I haven’t heard it, it must be underrated by me.
既然我没听过，那一定是我低估了它。
I don’t have any other opinion than that.
除此之外我没有其他意见。
Hi, Dallas, you’re sitting right here.
嗨，达拉斯，你就坐在这里。
You should check it out, I think, and let us know.
我想你应该检查一下，然后让我们知道。
Report back.
回来报告。
All right.
好的。
User @BAmark asks: “What were the most important things you learned this year?
用户@BAmark 问道：“今年你学到的最重要的事情是什么？
Have you changed your mind?
你改变主意了吗？
Why?”
为什么？”
I don’t know if I would call them things I’ve learned.
我不知道我是否会称它们为我学到的东西。
I think I have a new favorite saying that I didn’t have at the beginning of the year.
我想我有了一个新的最喜欢的说法，而今年年初我还没有。
It’s “Context is that which is scarce.”
这就是“上下文是稀缺的”。
Please don’t elaborate further.
请不要进一步详细说明。
If I go to events with people, which I do pretty often, even in COVID times, it used to be, I would go to hear new and daring ideas that I hadn’t heard before.
如果我和人们一起参加活动（我经常这样做，即使在新冠疫情时期也是如此），我会去听一些我以前从未听过的新的、大胆的想法。
That’s great, but I think, especially with Twitter, it’s very hard to hear new and daring ideas you haven’t heard before.
这很好，但我认为，尤其是在 Twitter 上，很难听到以前没有听过的新的、大胆的想法。
So why are you listening to other people?
那你为什么要听别人的话呢？
The way they put things, the way they argue, the way they paint the bigger picture — you’re getting a lot more context for ideas you’re somewhat already familiar with, and that context is important.
他们表达事物的方式、他们争论的方式、他们描绘更大图景的方式 ——你会获得更多你已经熟悉的想法的背景信息，而这些背景信息很重要。
Or by studying other cultures, you’re getting context for understanding people or situations or places.
或者通过研究其他文化，您可以获得了解人、情况或地点的背景。
That, at the margin, is what I’m trying to get more of, more context rather than new ideas.
从边缘来说，这就是我试图获得更多、更多背景而不是新想法的东西。
Realizing that’s more important than I thought, at least for me right now, has been, maybe, my biggest mental change.
意识到这比我想象的更重要，至少对我来说，这也许是我最大的心理变化。
But almost by definition, it’s not a new idea.
但几乎根据定义，这并不是一个新想法。
It’s like more context for context.
这就像更多的上下文。
I wonder if, sometimes, the reason why we don’t attract more listeners to the show is because there is a certain orientation that has to happen to appreciate Conversations with Tyler.
我想知道，有时，我们没有吸引更多听众观看节目的原因是否是因为有某种特定的倾向必须碰巧欣赏《与泰勒对话》。
If you get what you’re doing, it’s very easy, but I know from talking to people, if you just pull up a random episode and listen to it, I think a lot of people do not have that context to understand.
如果你明白你在做什么，那就很容易，但我从与人们交谈中知道，如果你只是随机抽出一集并听它，我认为很多人没有那个背景来理解。
Sure.
当然。
It’s deeply bizarre.
这真是太奇怪了。
I think that’s another good example.
我认为这是另一个很好的例子。
Context is that which is scarce.
上下文是稀缺的。
There are ways you can write where your readers have that context, or ways you can podcast where they do, and then ways where they don’t.
您可以通过多种方式在读者有这种背景的地方进行写作，或者在他们有这种背景的地方进行播客，然后在他们没有这种背景的地方进行播客。
One thing with Twitter — Twitter itself pulls quotations out of context, but they encourage people to read pieces that are removed from the context of a blog or a particular magazine or newspaper, and that’s very much a mixed blessing.
Twitter 的一件事是：Twitter 本身会断章取义，但它们鼓励人们阅读从博客或特定杂志或报纸的上下文中删除的文章，这是一件喜忧参半的事情。
Context, arguably, has become a lot more scarce with social media.
可以说，社交媒体的背景变得更加稀缺。
That, to me, means there’s high gains from being able to fill in those pieces.
对我来说，这意味着能够填补这些部分会带来很大的收益。
But if this is a podcast that people need context for, and I strongly suspect that it is, I think that’s what we need more of.
但如果这是一个人们需要背景的播客，而且我强烈怀疑它是这样，我认为这就是我们需要的更多。
If fewer people listen, I’m not going to say great, but I don’t want to explain everything from scratch.
如果听的人少了，我不会说很好，但我也不想从头开始解释一切。
The first question, I think, ought to be jumping right in.
我认为第一个问题应该直接切入。
Right.
正确的。
One thing that we’re actually thinking about on marketing is how we can do that.
关于营销，我们实际上考虑的一件事是如何做到这一点。
We’re not asking you to do that, but we might try to find a way to give people that guide to get into the show.
我们并不是要求你这样做，但我们可能会尝试找到一种方法来为人们提供进入节目的指导。
Because while I respect this “If you don’t like it, get out of here” attitude, we also think that this is a good product, and we want more people to enjoy it, so we want to give people the tools to enjoy it.
因为虽然我尊重这种“如果你不喜欢它，就离开这里”的态度，但我们也认为这是一个好产品，我们希望更多的人喜欢它，所以我们想给人们提供享受它的工具。
If you do a 10-point guide to understanding Conversations with Tyler.
如果你做一个 10 点指南来理解与泰勒的对话。
Like, “He will never ask what the book is about.
就像，“他永远不会问这本书是关于什么的。
He will never give you a chance to explain what you’re about.
他永远不会给你机会解释你的意思。
The first question will be very pointed and specific.”
第一个问题将非常尖锐和具体。”
Yes.
是的。
If anyone out there wants to take a first stab at that, I think long-time listeners will have no problem putting that together for the benefit of new listeners.
如果有人想尝试一下，我认为长期听众会毫无问题地将其整合在一起，以造福于新听众。
Last question for me before we close.
结束之前我要问的最后一个问题。
Related to this context thing, given that you’re searching more for context, how has your information diet changed in the past year?
与上下文相关，考虑到您更多地搜索上下文，您的信息饮食在过去一年中发生了怎样的变化？
Are you spending less time on the streams of social media or trying to change the composition there?
您花在社交媒体上的时间是否减少了，或者试图改变社交媒体的构成？
I don’t think it’s changed all that much.
我不认为它改变了那么多。
I’ve spent a lot more time reading about the visual arts and studying images and looking at the visual arts.
我花了很多时间阅读视觉艺术、研究图像和观察视觉艺术。
That would be the biggest change.
这将是最大的改变。
That’s maybe somewhat of a reversion to how I had been earlier rather than a completely new thing, but that’s what I would pick as what’s been different.
这可能有点像我之前的状态的回归，而不是一个全新的事物，但这就是我认为不同的地方。
You wrote, one of your best books for this year was this Sub-Saharan Africa: Architecture.
您写道，您今年最好的书之一是《撒哈拉以南非洲：建筑》。
Why include that?
为什么要包括这个？
What was it about it that spoke to you?
它对你有什么启发？
Obviously, Africa’s a very important continent.
显然，非洲是一个非常重要的大陆。
It’s a very hard continent to learn a lot about.
这是一个很难了解很多东西的大陆。
Hard to get there.
很难到达那里。
Not always an easy experience — so many countries — even apart from COVID issues.
即使不考虑新冠病毒问题，这并不总是一件容易的事——“这么多国家”。
Here are these seven books — which I’m not done reading yet, by the way, but I will finish the whole series — that just teach you the whole history of Africans building things.
这是这七本书 ——顺便说一句，我还没有读完，但我会读完整个系列—— 它们只是教你非洲人建造东西的整个历史。
That to me, in many ways, is a more fundamental history than just reading another political history of Africa, where they all go through, more or less, the same events: apartheid fell, and the Biafran War in Nigeria, and this and that.
对我来说，从很多方面来说，这是一部比仅仅阅读另一部非洲政治史更重要的历史，非洲各国都或多或少地经历了相同的事件：种族隔离制度倒台、尼日利亚比夫拉战争等等。
That’s all very important, but at the end of the day, if you’re interested in Africa at all, that is not what is scarce.
这一切都非常重要，但归根结底，如果你对非洲有兴趣，那并不是稀缺的。
There’s something more nitty-gritty, more contextual on the ground, and these books make a very serious attempt to give you that.
有一些更具体、更实际的东西，这些书非常认真地尝试向你提供这些。
They have excellent photographs, and they cover the entire African continent, and also give you a sense of diversity and lived experience.
他们的照片非常出色，覆盖了整个非洲大陆，也给你一种多样性和生活体验的感觉。
But also, institutionally — how did these things actually happen?
而且，从制度上来说——这些事情实际上是如何发生的？
Where did the influences come from?
影响从何而来？
What was the role of colonialism?
殖民主义的作用是什么？
Why are Finnish architects prominent in some parts of Africa and not others?
为什么芬兰建筑师在非洲某些地区很突出，而在其他地区则不然？
And so on.
等等。
I thought it’s a pretty remarkable series and one of my topics for the book of the year.
我认为这是一个非常出色的系列，也是我今年的图书主题之一。
Architecture and visual art as an entry point into learning about new fields or areas.
建筑和视觉艺术作为学习新领域或领域的切入点。
Correct.
正确的。
All right, before we go, I want to extend thanks to everyone who works on the Conversations with Tyler team.
好吧，在我们离开之前，我想向“与泰勒对话”团队的所有工作人员表示感谢。
It’s not just me and Dallas and Morgan and some of the other names you might hear on the podcast from time to time.
这不仅仅是我、达拉斯和摩根以及您可能不时在播客中听到的其他一些名字。
It’s Kate Brown, Kate De Lanoy, Mike Hopper, Sloane Shearman, Caroline Bair, Karen Plante, Christina Behe, Haley Larsen, Anna McVae, Ashley Schiller.
凯特·布朗、凯特·德拉诺伊、迈克·霍珀、斯隆·谢尔曼、卡罗琳·贝尔、凯伦·普兰特、克里斯蒂娜·贝赫、海莉·拉森、安娜·麦克维、阿什利·席勒。
All of these people have contributed significant time to the show in the past year.
所有这些人在过去的一年里都为展会做出了重要贡献。
So, on behalf of Tyler and myself, thank you to the CWT team.
因此，我代表 Tyler 和我本人感谢 CWT 团队。
We appreciate your efforts, and we look forward to another year of conversations.
我们感谢您的努力，并期待新一年的对话。
I’m very lucky to work with all of you.
我很幸运能与你们大家一起工作。
Thank you, all who work on CWT, very much.
非常感谢所有为 CWT 工作的人。
For any listeners or readers out there who support us, your support is very greatly appreciated.
对于任何支持我们的听众或读者，我们非常感谢您的支持。