Conversations with Tyler 2020 Retrospective (Ep. 112)
To get started, Tyler, I thought it best to start with the big change this year.
首先，泰勒，我认为最好从今年的重大变化开始。
Obviously, the pandemic started in March, and that forced a change in the production of Conversations with Tyler.
显然，大流行从三月份开始，这迫使《与泰勒对话》的制作发生了变化。
Unlike a lot of other podcasts, we had never done a remote interview before April.
与许多其他播客不同，我们在四月之前从未进行过远程采访。
Well, March was our first remote interview with Russ Roberts, when we did the live bonus episode right after everything shut down.
嗯，三月是我们第一次对拉斯·罗伯茨进行远程采访，当时我们在一切关闭后立即进行了现场奖金集。
We’ve had to make this abrupt shift from doing absolutely every episode face-to-face to now not being able to do any face-to-face.
我们不得不做出突然的转变，从几乎每一集都面对面制作，到现在无法进行任何面对面的制作。
And I wonder how that change has affected you, your preparation.
我想知道这种变化对你和你的准备工作有何影响。
It’s changed my life doing these remote, but it’s also made me much more optimistic about the American economy.
远程工作改变了我的生活，但也让我对美国经济更加乐观。
I was convinced that doing them remote would be terrible.
我确信远程进行这些工作会很糟糕。
“Oh, you can’t do them remote.” It turns out we had to do them remote.
“哦，你不能远程操作。”事实证明我们必须远程进行。
I’ve asked a number of people, and basically, they can’t tell the difference, as listeners, whether or not it’s remote.
我问过很多人，基本上，作为听众，他们无法区分是否远程。
They can tell by the fact that they’re seeing the two separate little boxes on YouTube, but they seem, to me, just as fine.
他们可以从 YouTube 上看到两个独立的小盒子这一事实看出，但在我看来，它们似乎也一样好。
So I think you have to wonder, how much of our economy can we in fact do remote?
所以我想你一定想知道，我们的经济实际上可以在多大程度上通过远程方式实现？
People like me have been saying, “No, we can’t do this remote,” and we can.
像我这样的人一直在说，“不，我们不能远程操作”，但我们可以。
I think having been forced into that new mode, there are, in fact, big productivity gains on their way.
我认为，在被迫进入这种新模式之后，事实上，他们的生产力正在大幅提高。
That said, we do hope to return to doing a lot of them face-to-face as soon as we can.
也就是说，我们确实希望尽快恢复面对面的交流。
We’ll see when that is.
我们会看看那是什么时候。
But I, for one, will not be hesitating to get my vaccine.
但就我而言，我会毫不犹豫地接种疫苗。
You know what the biggest change has been from the pandemic is not having proper access to the library.
您知道，大流行带来的最大变化是无法正确进入图书馆。
A lot of people — it’s hard to prepare for them because you’d have to get all these books.
很多人 ——很难为他们做好准备，因为你必须得到所有这些书。
I even said, “Oh, Jeff and Dallas, we need to pick some economists because to prepare for economists, you don’t really need to read books.” Is that like a little bit of an insult?
我什至说，“哦，杰夫和达拉斯，我们需要挑选一些经济学家，因为要为经济学家做准备，你真的不需要读书。”这算是有点侮辱吗？
Anyway, we did a bunch of economists.
无论如何，我们做了一群经济学家。
I thought they turned out great.
我觉得他们结果很棒。
And that was because of the pandemic.
那是因为大流行。
That was the bigger change in going from face-to-face to remote — my reading habits.
这是从面对面到远程的更大变化——我的阅读习惯。
To jump to a listener question, then, will there be a split in terms of face-to-face and remote?
那么，跳到听众的问题，面对面和远程会不会有区别？
Will you go back — even acknowledging that maybe it’s not that different, but for you it’s important.
你会回去吗 ——即使承认也许并没有那么不同，但对你来说这很重要。
Maybe it’s just a differentiator in your mind to do it face-to-face.
也许面对面的交流只是你心中的一个差异化因素。
Will you go back 100 percent face-to-face post-vaccine?
接种疫苗后你会百分百恢复面对面吗？
Or do you think there’ll be some split?
或者你认为会有一些分裂吗？
Well, I just like meeting the people, above all.
嗯，最重要的是，我只是喜欢与人见面。
That, in a sense, is my wage for doing things.
从某种意义上说，这就是我做事的工资。
We want to do Lydia Davis up in Albany.
我们想让莉迪亚·戴维斯在奥尔巴尼演出。
I suspect she would do remote.
我怀疑她会做远程工作。
I’m not doing it because I want to meet her.
我这样做不是因为我想见她。
But I suspect it’s the other side of the market that will constrain us.
但我怀疑市场的另一面会限制我们。
They’ll be like, “Well, you don’t have to come up.
他们会说：“好吧，你不必上来。
We’re willing to do it remote.” Actually, they’re terrified that I didn’t really get a vaccine after all, or the vaccines don’t work.
我们愿意远程进行。”事实上，他们害怕我到底没有真正接种疫苗，或者疫苗不起作用。
Or maybe you’re carrying tuberculosis by then.
或者那时您可能已经患有肺结核。
No, I don’t think it’s going to be up to us for quite some time.
不，我认为在相当长的一段时间内这都不会由我们决定。
I’ll just take what reality sends me.
我只会接受现实给我的东西。
We have a backdrop of remote.
我们有一个远程背景。
It works fine.
效果很好。
We’ll see what we can do past that.
我们会看看我们能做些什么。
We’ll get into predictions at the very end on some of this stuff.
我们将在最后对其中一些内容进行预测。
You mentioned we shifted composition to people you don’t have to do as much research on.
你提到我们将构图转移给了你不需要做太多研究的人。
Or online research, right?
或者在线研究，对吗？
It’s not that there’s no research, but I don’t need the books of the library.
不是没有研究，而是我不需要图书馆的书。
In terms of the composition of guests.
从嘉宾构成来看。
Otherwise, we didn’t really do a lot of COVID programming.
否则，我们并没有真正做很多新冠病毒编程。
In fact, I’d say we did more counter-programming to COVID.
事实上，我想说我们对新冠病毒做了更多的反编程。
We did a few, notably Paul Romer and Glen Weyl.
我们做了一些，特别是保罗·罗默和格伦·韦尔。
In terms of the guests or episodes, how do you think the composition — other than the obvious — was affected by our switch?
就嘉宾或剧集而言，您认为我们的切换对构图（除了明显的）有何影响？
Do you think we got different guests than we normally would?
您认为我们接待的客人与平时有什么不同吗？
I don’t think so much.
我想的不多。
We’re well enough known now that, say, people with a new book out — they simply want to do us, whether we deserve them or not, so that’s good.
我们现在已经很清楚，比如说，出版新书的人——他们只是想对我们做，不管我们是否值得他们这样做，所以这很好。
Maybe doing something like flying to London to do Karl Knausgård — I would have tried something like that again, I’m not sure with whom.
也许做一些事情，比如飞往伦敦去看卡尔·诺斯加德（Karl Knausgård）——我会再次尝试类似的事情，我不确定与谁一起。
Like fly to Italy and yell out Elena Ferrante’s name and hope she appears with a tape recorder.
就像飞往意大利并大声喊出埃琳娜·费兰特的名字并希望她带着录音机出现一样。
Something like that would have happened, and it didn’t.
类似的事情本来会发生，但它没有发生。
We had three COVID episodes.
我们经历了三起新冠疫情。
I’m glad we had three, but COVID has been covered very heavily by me on Marginal Revolution, and I think whatever I have to say, people get there, and it changes so quickly.
我很高兴我们有三个，但是我在《边际革命》中对新冠病毒进行了非常多的报道，我想无论我要说什么，人们都会到达那里，而且它变化得如此之快。
I’m happy with the three we did, and probably it’s going to stay at that.
我对我们所做的三件事感到满意，并且可能会保持下去。
This was a year of repeat guests.
今年是回头客的一年。
We had Fuchsia Dunlop last year, but it was a bonus episode.
去年我们有紫红色邓洛普，但这是一个额外的插曲。
But this year we had Ezra Klein for the second time, promoting a book; Ross Douthat promoting a book, as you mentioned; and then Russ Roberts as the bonus episode, as a third.
但今年，埃兹拉·克莱因 (Ezra Klein) 第二次来了，宣传一本书；正如您提到的，罗斯·杜塔特（Ross Douthat）正在宣传一本书；然后是拉斯·罗伯茨（Russ Roberts）作为奖励剧集，作为第三集。
And Paul Romer, I forgot Paul Romer.
还有保罗·罗默，我忘了保罗·罗默。
We did him a second time as well.
我们也给他做了第二次。
Do you anticipate doing more repeats in the coming year?
您预计来年会进行更多重复吗？
Well, I guess my new view is they’re all bonus episodes, right?
好吧，我想我的新观点是它们都是奖励剧集，对吗？
I don’t want to say we’re going to do more repeats because it might get some people’s hopes up, but in fact, the repeats were really good.
我不想说我们会做更多的重复，因为这可能会让一些人抱有希望，但事实上，重复真的很好。
How many of these have we done, Jeff?
杰夫，我们做了多少这样的事？
Do you know?
你知道吗？
In total, let me get a real-time fact check from Dallas.
总而言之，让我从达拉斯获得实时事实核查。
Counting this episode, which will be the last of the year, it’ll be 112.
算上今年最后一集，就有112集了。
OK, so well over a hundred.
好吧，已经超过一百了。
That’s a lot of people to be dredging up from the ranks, and if someone’s really good, they have more than an hour to say.
有很多人需要从队伍中挖出来，如果有人真的很优秀，他们有一个多小时的时间可以说。
Even if someone isn’t really good, they have more than an hour to say.
即使某人不太好，他们也有一个多小时的时间可以说。
Maybe we’ll do some more repeats, right?
也许我们会再重复一些，对吗？
It depends what people are up to.
这取决于人们在做什么。
We did have one guest who, sadly, we will not have a chance to ever interview.
我们确实有一位客人，遗憾的是，我们没有机会采访他。
Last year, we had a confirmed time to interview Clayton Christensen.
去年，我们确定了采访克莱顿·克里斯滕森的时间。
Unfortunately, he had to postpone because his health took a turn for the worse, and then he passed away at the very beginning of the year.
不幸的是，他因健康状况恶化而不得不推迟，并于年初去世。
We’ll never get to hear that interview.
我们永远不会听到那次采访。
What were you hoping to learn from Clayton Christensen?
您希望从克莱顿·克里斯滕森那里学到什么？
How he thinks disruption really works, how to improve the case study method at Harvard Business School, how his Mormon upbringing and faith has influenced his ideas on management.
他如何看待颠覆真正发挥作用，如何改进哈佛商学院的案例研究方法，他的摩门教成长和信仰如何影响他的管理理念。
What’s his favorite movie?
他最喜欢的电影是什么？
There’s plenty we would have had to talk about with Clay.
我们必须与克莱谈论很多事情。
He was a fan of what we were doing.
他是我们所做的事情的粉丝。
Very sad that will never happen.
非常悲伤的是，这种情况永远不会发生。
On most popular — and most underrated — episodes of 2020
关于 2020 年最受欢迎的 — 和最被低估的 — 剧集
All right.
好吧。
Let’s go a little bit into the numbers of CWT this year.
让我们稍微了解一下今年 CWT 的数据。
We’ll talk about the most popular episode picks for most underrated episode this year, and then we’ll get into some Name That Production Function, our favorite segment on these year-in-review episodes.
我们将讨论今年最被低估的剧集中最受欢迎的剧集选择，然后我们将讨论一些“制作功能”，这是这些年度回顾剧集中我们最喜欢的部分。
First, by the numbers, we did — counting this one — this will be our 29th episode of the year, so that’s pretty typical for the past few years.
首先，从数字来看，我们做到了 —— 算上这一集 —— 这将是我们今年的第 29 集，所以这在过去几年中是非常典型的。
That’s once every other week, plus a few bonus.
每隔一周一次，再加上一些奖金。
Any idea what the most downloaded episode was of this year?
你知道今年下载次数最多的剧集是哪一集吗？
I don’t know at all, but my guess would be Matt Yglesias.
我一点也不知道，但我猜是马特·伊格莱西亚斯。
You are correct.
你是对的。
Matt broke the record for first-week downloads.
马特打破了首周下载记录。
There is a bias that we get growing listenership over time.
人们普遍认为，随着时间的推移，我们的听众数量会不断增加。
So earlier episodes will do slightly worse than later episodes in the year.
因此，今年早期剧集的表现会比后期剧集稍差。
So if you look in the first six months, Adam Tooze was the record breaker, which was a big surprise, actually, to me.
因此，如果你看看前六个月，亚当·图兹（Adam Tooze）打破了纪录，这实际上对我来说是一个很大的惊喜。
I had no idea how ardent the Adam Tooze fan base was, but he was also on Macro Musings, David Beckworth’s podcast that we produce here at Mercatus, and it did very well over there too.
我不知道 Adam Tooze 的粉丝群有多么热情，但他也在 Macro Musings 上，这是我们在 Mercatus 制作的 David Beckworth 的播客，而且在那里也表现得很好。
Adam Tooze is very popular.
亚当·图兹很受欢迎。
And it was a good episode.
这是一个很好的插曲。
Adam and Matt are indicating Twitter really matters for your podcast audience, right?
Adam 和 Matt 表示 Twitter 对于您的播客受众确实很重要，对吗？
Yeah.
是的。
And of course, Matt Yglesias is shortly thereafter making moves and striking out on his own, and also recently announcing that he’s becoming a senior fellow over at Niskanen.
当然，此后不久，马特·伊格莱西亚斯 (Matt Yglesias) 就开始采取行动，开始自己的事业，最近还宣布他将成为尼斯卡宁 (Niskanen) 的高级研究员。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
That surprised me, but it’s good.
这让我很惊讶，但这很好。
Good for them, good for him.
对他们好，对他也好。
What are your picks for underrated?
您会选择哪些被低估的产品？
I’m not necessarily equating this with listens, but listens does factor into it.
我不一定将其等同于聆听，但聆听确实是其中的一个因素。
Well, I don’t even know how any of them are rated.
好吧，我什至不知道他们的评价如何。
I thought the Alex Ross episode was really good.
我认为亚历克斯·罗斯那集真的很棒。
I suspect Wagner fans rate it pretty highly, but there aren’t so many of them, so that’s one of my picks for underrated.
我怀疑瓦格纳的粉丝对它的评价很高，但他们的数量并不多，所以这是我选择的被低估的作品之一。
Jimmy Wales — I’m not sure it’s underrated, but I think precisely because he’s been successful and moderate and reasonable, Twitter doesn’t go crazy over him one way or another.
吉米·威尔士 — 我不确定它是否被低估了，但我认为正是因为他很成功、温和且合理，推特才不会以某种方式为他疯狂。
My guess is that will do very well in the long run, but in the short run, it was not like a super social media–driven thing because he is not insane.
我的猜测是，从长远来看，这会做得很好，但从短期来看，这不像是超级社交媒体驱动的事情，因为他并没有疯。
I would name that as underrated.
我认为它被低估了。
Those would be the two picks that come to mind right away, but maybe you can tell me.
我马上想到的就是这两个选择，但也许你可以告诉我。
I think if you look at who underperformed, you clearly see a bit of a, you might call it a liberal arts bias.
我认为，如果你看看谁表现不佳，你会清楚地看到一点，你可以称之为文科偏见。
When we have guests that are less known, (A), and (B), that they’re talking about music or fiction, that’s when you tend to see a dip.
当我们有不太知名的客人（A）和（B）时，他们正在谈论音乐或小说，那就是你倾向于看到下降的时候。
Then I would say, weirdly, the episode performed decently, but John McWhorter — as I was looking through the stats, I was surprised.
然后我会说，奇怪的是，这一集的表现还不错，但是约翰·麦克沃特 ——当我查看统计数据时，我很惊讶。
I would say he underperformed.
我会说他表现不佳。
I would say — to the extent that that tells you something about how people rated it — then I would say John McWhorter, underrated.
我会说“在某种程度上，这可以告诉你人们如何评价它”然后我会说约翰·麦克沃特，被低估了。
Here’s what I suspect went on there.
这就是我怀疑那里发生的事情。
He is so available in the podcast forum that you don’t need to come to us.
他在播客论坛上非常活跃，您无需来找我们。
Until very recently, Adam Tooze was quite underexposed in the podcast forum, and that’s being remedied for the better.
直到最近，Adam Tooze 在播客论坛上的曝光度还相当不足，而这一问题正在得到改善。
We were the go-to Adam Tooze place.
我们是亚当·图兹 (Adam Tooze) 常去的地方。
On naming production functions (i)
关于生产函数的命名（一）
All right, let’s jump into a round of Name That Production Function.
好吧，让我们开始一轮命名生产函数。
We’ll do two rounds of this.
我们将进行两轮。
As a reminder to you, I’ve gone through and picked some of my favorite answers from responses to your inquiries about a guest’s production function.
提醒您一下，我已经浏览并从对您有关客人生产函数的询问的答复中挑选了一些我最喜欢的答案。
I picked some of my favorites.
我挑选了一些我最喜欢的。
I’m going to read you a quote and you guess who it is.
我要给你读一段引言，你猜猜是谁。
All right?
好的？
I’d be lucky to get one of these because I treat the segment as telling me what not to do, not like something I should remember to do.
我很幸运能得到其中一个，因为我认为这一部分是告诉我不该做什么，而不是我应该记住做的事情。
But some of these are really easy.
但其中一些确实很容易。
We’ll see.
我们会看到的。
Last year, you did really well because you were able to use clues to guess.
去年，你做得非常好，因为你能够利用线索来猜测。
I think that’ll be true this year.
我想今年也是如此。
All right, number one:
好吧，第一：
“I have a lot of projects on the go and switch between them.
“我有很多项目正在进行中，需要在它们之间切换。
Kierkegaard called it crop rotation.
克尔凯郭尔称之为作物轮作。
You work on something, you put it to one side, and then you pick something else up.
你在做某件事，把它放在一边，然后再拿起别的东西。
I gave a Ted talk on this.
我就此做了 Ted 演讲。
I called it slow-motion multitasking.
我称之为慢动作多任务处理。
I think it’s striking how many very successful people practice this and have these multiple projects on the go.
我认为令人惊讶的是有这么多非常成功的人实践这一点并正在进行这些多个项目。
They provide relief.
他们提供缓解。
When you’re stuck on something, you just do something else and don’t get stressed about it because you’ve got something else productive to do.”
当你被困在某件事上时，你就去做其他事情，而不会因此而感到压力，因为你还有其他富有成效的事情要做。”
I have no memory, but it sounds like Tim Harford.
我没有记忆，但听起来像蒂姆·哈福德。
That’s my guess.
这是我的猜测。
You are correct.
你是对的。
Good.
好的。
Thank you, Tim, for doing so much and reminding me of your productivity.
蒂姆，谢谢你做了这么多并提醒我你的生产力。
I think we recorded him late last year, and he released early this year.
我想我们去年年底录制了他，他今年年初发行了。
It does feel, in some ways, like a lifetime ago.
从某些方面来说，这确实感觉就像是上辈子的事了。
All right, number two.
好吧，第二个。
This person’s talking about going to school, like high school.
这个人正在谈论上学，比如高中。
“I mostly did what I wanted to do and not what I was told to do.
“我主要做我想做的事，而不是别人告诉我要做的事。
If I wasn’t interested in a subject, I did very little on it.
如果我对某个主题不感兴趣，我就很少做。
If I liked something, I would read 12 other books that no one told us to read on the topic.
如果我喜欢某件事，我会阅读其他 12 本书，而这些书没有人告诉我们要读关于该主题的书。
I remember when, in the college application, they had you list all the books you’d read in the last year.
我记得在大学申请时，他们让你列出去年读过的所有书籍。
I wrote down a list, and then I was so terrified they would think that I was a liar, that I ended up cutting that list in half lest they would think I was making things up.”
我写下了一份清单，然后我非常害怕他们会认为我是个骗子，所以我最终把这份清单切成两半，以免他们认为我在编造事情。”
That sounds like a rich person.
听起来就是个有钱人啊。
Can I guess Reid Hoffman, but again, I don’t remember.
我能猜到里德霍夫曼吗，但我又不记得了。
I like that your intuition was, it’s a rich person.
我喜欢你的直觉，这是一个有钱人。
I don’t know how rich he is, but it wasn’t Reid Hoffman.
我不知道他有多富有，但那不是里德·霍夫曼。
Any second guess?
还有第二次猜测吗？
Recorded very early.
很早就录了。
Who would that be?
那会是谁？
Jason Furman.
贾森·弗曼.
Oh, that’s right.
哦，原来如此。
Yes, yes, of course.
是的，是的，当然。
He does read so much.
他确实读了很多书。
Of course, the story with Jason Furman from a production standpoint is that we recorded him, I think, before the holidays.
当然，从制作的角度来看，杰森·弗曼的故事是我们在假期前录制的。
He was scheduled to release in the first few months of the year.
他计划在今年头几个月发布。
We bumped him because we did have a more pressing episode.
我们撞到他是因为我们确实有更紧迫的事情。
Then we just couldn’t find a natural place to slot him in.
然后我们就找不到一个自然的位置来安置他。
He kept getting bumped and bumped and bumped, and only released in the end of the summer sometime.
他不断地被撞、撞、撞，直到夏末的某个时候才被释放。
He’s actually our last release that was recorded in person.
他实际上是我们亲自录制的最后一个版本。
I still feel bad about that, like I didn’t do him proper justice.
我仍然对此感到难过，就像我没有公正地对待他一样。
His episode performed really well.
他的这一集表现得非常好。
There were some — I don’t know — CWT truthers who thought we had some agenda from holding it as long as we did.
有一些“我不知道”的 CWT 真理支持者认为我们坚持这么长时间是有一定议程的。
I can assure everyone it was for banal production reasons, but his episode performed well, so no concerns there.
我可以向大家保证，这是出于平庸的制作原因，但他的剧集表现良好，因此无需担心。
The part where he announced who Q is, right?
他宣布Q是谁的部分，对吗？
That just took off like wildfire.
那就像野火一样起飞。
No, actually, I will have to say, if I think of a revelation in an episode that I think went underappreciated, Tyler, it’s that you revealed in the Ashley Mears episode that you have a Peloton bike and, at least at the time, a Peloton bike was your main form of exercise.
不，实际上，我不得不说，如果我想到一集我认为没有得到充分重视的启示，泰勒，那就是你在阿什利米尔斯剧集中透露你有一辆 Peloton 自行车，并且至少在当时，Peloton 自行车是你的主要锻炼方式。
Is that still the case?
现在还是这样吗？
It is.
这是。
Whenever the weather is bad, which is fairly often where I live, it’s Peloton every day.
每当天气不好的时候（我住的地方经常这样），每天都是 Peloton。
You do the classes and everything or just the bike?
你负责课程和所有事情，还是只负责骑自行车？
The bike.
自行车。
The software confuses me.
这个软件让我很困惑。
I can’t figure it out, but the bike is great.
我不明白，但这辆自行车很棒。
Very happy to have it.
很高兴拥有它。
This is consistent with the Tyler I know.
这和我认识的泰勒是一致的。
Exactly.
确切地。
Thank you.
谢谢。
Well, I’m glad to hear the Peloton is still working out for you.
好吧，我很高兴听到大部队仍在为你训练。
Especially now, right?
尤其是现在，对吧？
This is late December, so, of course, I’m using it all the time.
现在是 12 月底，所以，当然，我一直在使用它。
All right.
好的。
Finishing on our first segment on production function, this is a negative production function in the sense that it’s something that this person realized they weren’t good at.
完成我们关于生产函数的第一部分，这是一个负生产函数，因为这个人意识到他们不擅长这一点。
Okay.
好的。
Here it goes.
就这样吧。
“It turns out it is challenging to manage.
“事实证明，管理起来很有挑战性。
It involves real skills.
它涉及真正的技能。
It stressed me out.
这让我压力很大。
I don’t think I did a great job of it.
我不认为我做得很好。
You get a good appreciation for the idea that, even though it might be hard to measure or to see externally, there is real skill being deployed in middle management.”
你会很欣赏这样一个想法：尽管可能很难衡量或从外部看到，但中层管理人员拥有真正的技能。”
I don’t know if I’m going to have any idea, but middle management — I don’t know.
我不知道我是否会有任何想法，但中层管理人员 —— 我不知道。
Nicholas Bloom worked at McKinsey.
尼古拉斯·布鲁姆曾在麦肯锡工作。
Again, that’s a guess, not memory, but how’s that?
再说一遍，这只是猜测，不是记忆，但那是怎样的呢？
That’s a good guess, but not correct.
这是一个很好的猜测，但不正确。
But wrong, totally wrong.
但错了，完全错了。
This person was referenced earlier, and hint — they are not managing anyone decidedly now.
之前提到过这个人，并提示 — 他们现在没有明确管理任何人。
They have made a recent change.
他们最近做出了改变。
Not managing anyone decidedly now.
现在坚决不管理任何人。
Everyone’s managing someone, I think.
我认为每个人都在管理某人。
They’ve struck out on a solo venture.
他们开始了一项单独的冒险。
Matt .
马特.
Of course, it must be Matt, yes.
当然，一定是马特，是的。
Yes.
是的。
In the early days of Vox, Matt was in more of a managerial position, and he realized it wasn’t for him.
在 Vox 的早期，马特更多地担任管理职位，他意识到这不适合他。
Of course, maybe taking that a step further with a solo venture on Substack.
当然，也许可以更进一步，在 Substack 上进行单独冒险。
Okay, next one.
好的，下一张。
You will get this one because I’m not going to try to remove the clues.
你会得到这个，因为我不会试图消除线索。
If you wrap it up in some software, I promise I won’t.
如果你把它封装在某些软件中，我保证不会。
“I think music critics need to have command of neighboring cultural areas because music is not just separate from the rest of culture, from the rest of our world.
“我认为音乐评论家需要掌握邻近的文化领域，因为音乐不仅与其他文化、与我们世界的其他部分分开。
When you’re writing about opera, you’re writing about literature as well as music.
当你写歌剧时，你在写文学和音乐。
You’re writing about staging, theater ideas, so every music critic can’t be a pure specialist.” Awesome.
你写的是舞台表演、戏剧创意，所以每个音乐评论家都不可能是纯粹的专家。”惊人的。
That has to be Alex Ross, right?
那一定是亚历克斯·罗斯，对吧？
Correct.
正确的。
All right.
好的。
Last one in this segment:
本节最后一篇：
“I think almost part of it depends on how you look at the world.
“我认为这几乎部分取决于你如何看待世界。
Do you look at things and then try to think, ‘Okay, how can I simplify this?
你是否会看着事物然后尝试思考，‘好吧，我怎样才能简化这个？
How can I take something that’s incredibly complex and narrow on a specific dimension and really understand that in a way that can shed light on the world?’ Then along with that, also being humble about the fact that that doesn’t mean that you’ve understood everything.
我怎样才能在特定维度上理解极其复杂和狭窄的事物，并以一种能够照亮世界的方式真正理解它？”除此之外，还要谦虚地对待这样一个事实，即这并不意味着你已经理解了一切。
You’ve looked at one dimension.
你已经看到了一个维度。
It sheds light on things, but you need to really know what you don’t know.”
它揭示了事情的真相，但你需要真正知道你不知道的事情。”
That was somebody’s answer?
这是某人的回答吗？
It was.
是的。
I have no idea.
我不知道。
No idea whatsoever.
一点也不知道。
This one’s hard.
这个很难。
I’m trying to think if I can give you a good clue.
我正在想是否可以给你一个好的线索。
They’re speaking in a way that would make sense, given their academic work.
考虑到他们的学术工作，他们的发言方式是有意义的。
This person gained notoriety for exploiting a certain econometric technique and has used that to write a number of really good papers in economics.
此人因利用某种计量经济学技术而声名狼藉，并利用该技术撰写了许多非常好的经济学论文。
That’s Melissa Dell, then?
那是梅丽莎·戴尔吗？
That’s correct.
这是正确的。
Yes.
是的。
I think her answer was very in keeping with the fact that her papers can tell you a lot about a very specific thing, but she was very careful about saying that it only gives you part of the story, and you have to be really careful about what you don’t know.
我认为她的回答非常符合这样一个事实：她的论文可以告诉你很多关于非常具体的事情，但她非常小心地说，它只给你提供了故事的一部分，你必须非常小心你不知道的东西。
Sure.
当然。
I’m looking for tips on how to use my vacuum cleaner so I can write more blog posts in the evening.
我正在寻找有关如何使用吸尘器的技巧，以便我可以在晚上写更多博客文章。
Well, you know what you don’t know about vacuum cleaners, I think.
好吧，我想你知道关于吸尘器你不知道的事情。
That gives us a good excuse to turn to some Twitter questions.
这给了我们一个很好的借口来回答一些 Twitter 问题。
How about we go first to a question from Conversations with Tyler producer Dallas Floer.
我们首先回答《与泰勒对话》制片人达拉斯·弗洛尔提出的问题怎么样？
She has a couple of good ones.
她有几个不错的。
The first was, what’s your go-to quarantine snack these days?
第一个问题是，这些天你在隔离期间最喜欢吃的零食是什么？
Well, at the beginning, it was pickles, but I got sick of pickles.
嗯，一开始是泡菜，但我厌倦了泡菜。
I believe you said in your post that pickles were great because they’re always delicious, but you don’t overeat them.
我相信你在帖子中说过，泡菜很棒，因为它们总是很美味，但你不会吃得太多。
I was half right.
我只说对了一半。
You don’t overeat them, but that means they don’t stay your quarantine snack.
你不会吃得过多，但这意味着它们不会成为你的隔离零食。
I think just breaking off a piece of Whole Foods 365 sharp cheddar cheese has become my go-to quarantine snack.
我想，只要掰下一块 Whole Foods 365 切达干酪，就已经成为我的隔离零食了。
It is somewhat filling, it has protein, some moisture, and I don’t think it’s that bad for you.
它有点饱腹感，含有蛋白质和一些水分，我认为这对你来说并没有那么糟糕。
Yes.
是的。
In the Russ Roberts interview, you said you were doing more cooking.
在拉斯·罗伯茨的采访中，你说你正在做更多的烹饪。
Is that still the case?
现在还是这样吗？
Yes, but less than I had been then because there’s been outdoor — not right now — but there’s been outdoor dining for most of the year.
是的，但比以前少了，因为一直在户外——“现在不是”——但一年中的大部分时间都是在户外用餐。
There wasn’t that when I was speaking to Russ, which was, I think, early to mid-March.
当我和拉斯谈话时，我想那是在三月初到三月中旬，当时并没有这样的情况。
Yes.
是的。
Here’s another question from Twitter, then.
这是 Twitter 的另一个问题。
@perrosi1980 says, “Food question: delivery and takeout during lockdown — is it a temporary blip or a permanent change to eating out?”
@perrosi1980 说，“食物问题：封锁期间的送货和外卖 ——对于外出就餐来说，这是暂时的现象还是永久性的改变？”
Permanent change.
永久的改变。
To some extent, I think maybe a third of that shift will stick.
在某种程度上，我认为这种转变的三分之一可能会持续下去。
I don’t myself like takeout.
我自己不太喜欢叫外卖。
I think the food tastes much worse.
我认为食物的味道更糟糕。
I would just do whatever is possible to make it fresh, served at the right moment at the right temperature.
我会尽一切可能使其新鲜，在正确的时间、正确的温度下提供。
If that means I cook it, so be it.
如果这意味着我会做饭，那就这样吧。
If that means eat outside when it’s cold, so be it, but eat food properly.
如果这意味着天冷时要在外面吃饭，那就这样吧，但要适当吃东西。
But I know the world does not agree with me.
但我知道世界并不同意我的观点。
I’ve had a small number of dining-in episodes, but I’m always going at 11:00 a.m.
我有过几次堂食经历，但我总是在上午 11:00 去。
when no one else is there.
当没有其他人在场时。
There’s only a small number of places I’ll do even that.
只有少数地方我会这样做。
Show up at 11:00, order, no one else is there, leave by 11:20.
11:00出现，点餐，没有其他人，11:20离开。
That works in two or three places I go to.
这在我去过的两三个地方都有效。
Jared Sylvester from Twitter asks, “What is the post-pandemic outlook for ethnic restaurants?
Twitter 的贾里德·西尔维斯特 (Jared Sylvester) 问道：“疫情后民族餐厅的前景如何？
Are any of your heuristics for finding good ones different now?”
现在你寻找好人的启发方法有什么不同吗？”
At least where I live — Northern Virginia — I’ve been surprised, I might even say shocked, at how few of them have closed.
至少在我住的地方——“弗吉尼亚北部”——“我很惊讶，我什至可以说震惊，因为他们中很少有人关门。
They must, in some way, be more thickly capitalized than I had thought.
在某种程度上，它们的资本一定比我想象的更雄厚。
We can debate exactly when how many people will take the vaccine and so on, but it seems most of them are sustainable, or they would have closed by now.
我们可以具体讨论何时有多少人接种疫苗等等，但似乎大多数都是可持续的，否则现在就已经关门了。
DC is a different story.
DC 则是另一回事。
A lot have closed, or they’re just weirdly boarded up.
很多都关门了，或者只是奇怪地用木板封起来。
But where I live, I haven’t lost a single favorite that I’m aware of, and that’s very heartening.
但在我居住的地方，据我所知，我没有失去任何一个最喜欢的人，这非常令人振奋。
Heuristics haven’t really changed because —
启发法并没有真正改变，因为 -
Haven’t changed, but I would say this: While the pandemic is still on, the value of comfort food is higher.
没有改变，但我想说的是：虽然大流行仍在继续，但舒适食品的价值更高。
The value of complicated dishes is lower.
复杂的菜肴价值较低。
They’re harder to pull off under current circumstances.
在当前情况下，它们更难实现。
There are issues with kitchen crowding.
厨房拥挤的问题。
Staff can be lower.
人员可以少一些。
The good side is, you often have the best person in the kitchen cooking for you.
好的一面是，厨房里经常有最好的人为你做饭。
The downside is, complex production is harder.
缺点是复杂的生产比较困难。
But order simpler dishes, and they will taste better.
但点简单点的菜，味道会更好。
That would be a new rule — pandemic dining.
这将是一个新规则——“流行病就餐”。
Order simpler dishes and comfort food.
点简单的菜肴和舒适的食物。
It will taste better, and you will enjoy it more.
它的味道会更好，你也会更享受它。
I mean, I’m actually ashamed to think I haven’t thought about that when I’m ordering takeout, as I’m not really ordering what I think will actually travel well or hold up well.
我的意思是，我真的很羞愧，因为我在点外卖时没有考虑到这一点，因为我并没有真正点我认为实际上会很好地旅行或保持良好的东西。
I still order what I want to taste and what I think will be delicious, as if I were in the restaurant.
我仍然点我想尝的、我认为会好吃的，就像我在餐厅一样。
So that’s a helpful heuristic for me.
所以这对我来说是一个有用的启发。
Thank you.
谢谢。
I don’t think buffets will come back post-vaccine.
我认为疫苗接种后自助餐不会回归。
I think they will eventually, but we’ll have to lose the collective memory of being afraid of them.
我认为他们最终会的，但我们将不得不失去害怕他们的集体记忆。
On how well state capacity libertarianism fared
论国家能力自由主义的表现如何
Let’s switch to another big area that started the year.
让我们转向今年年初的另一个大领域。
A couple of listeners indicated they really wanted to hear your thoughts on state capacity libertarianism, given that you started the year with this big post trying to name a new strand of libertarianism, and indeed, arguing that it was the future of libertarianism.
一些听众表示，他们真的很想听听您对国家能力自由主义的想法，因为您在年初发表了这篇大文章，试图命名一种新的自由主义，并且确实认为这是自由主义的未来。
Then we have this major global issue that, at least in my mind, directly relates to some of the key points of tension in a broader libertarian ideology about the proper role of government and what restrictions we might take, short or long term, in order to let the government step in and handle certain problems.
然后，我们面临这个重大的全球问题，至少在我看来，它直接关系到更广泛的自由主义意识形态中的一些关键紧张点，即政府的适当角色以及我们可能采取的短期或长期限制，以便让政府介入并处理某些问题。
The first post on Marginal Revolution that I found that referenced coronavirus wasn’t until January 23, and I think you were actually linking to a Bloomberg column.
我发现第一篇关于《边际革命》的文章提到了冠状病毒，直到 1 月 23 日才出现，我认为您实际上链接到了彭博社的一篇专栏。
That’s correct.
这是正确的。
You’ve obviously written about pandemic in preparation before, years ago, but when you wrote this state capacity libertarianism column or post on Marginal Revolution, you weren’t really thinking at all about the fact that there was something brewing in Wuhan.
显然，你几年前就已经写过有关大流行病的准备文章，但是当你写这篇关于国家能力自由主义的专栏或关于边缘革命的文章时，你根本没有真正考虑过武汉正在酝酿什么事情的事实。
Correct.
正确的。
I had read the Wuhan reports, and I was concerned, but events of concern come out of China fairly often with flu viruses and the like, and I didn’t then think this one was it.
我读过武汉的报道，我很担心，但中国经常发生流感病毒等令人担忧的事件，我当时并不认为是这个。
I did mention it to some people on WhatsApp, so I was following it.
我确实在 WhatsApp 上向一些人提到过这件事，所以我正在关注它。
I think, right now, libertarians are at a war with each other.
我认为，现在，自由主义者正在互相争斗。
I’m not sure a state capacity libertarianism is the future of libertarianism, but it’s the future or present of my libertarianism.
我不确定国家能力自由主义是自由主义的未来，但它是我的自由主义的未来或现在。
Milton Friedman said this, too.
米尔顿·弗里德曼也说过这句话。
He said, “One of the public goods you need government for is to control contagious diseases.” This is that.
他说：“政府需要提供的公共产品之一就是控制传染病。”就是这样。
When it happens, you will best secure liberty by beating back the virus.
当这种情况发生时，你最好通过击退病毒来确保自由。
That does mean, say, subsidies for vaccines and government taking an active role in trying to support testing.
这确实意味着对疫苗的补贴以及政府在支持检测方面发挥积极作用。
We did a better job with vaccines than testing.
我们在疫苗方面做得比测试更好。
That’s the case when you really want your government to have its act together.
当你真的希望你的政府齐心协力时，就会出现这种情况。
You can see a big difference between countries where the government did a good job and countries where government did a bad job, and it has long-run implications for their liberty.
你可以看到政府做得好的国家和政府做得不好的国家之间存在巨大差异，这对他们的自由有着长期的影响。
What surprised me is how many libertarians moved into a kind of denialism, like, “Oh, this isn’t so bad.
令我惊讶的是，有多少自由主义者陷入了某种否认主义，比如，“哦，这还不错。
It’s only the old people.
这只是老年人。
It only kills whatever percent.” Older, more macho libertarians would have said, “Oh, this virus is terrible.
它只会杀死百分之几的人。”年长的、更有男子气概的自由主义者会说：“哦，这种病毒太可怕了。
We need to let the market rip to crush it.
我们需要让市场撕裂来粉碎它。
If we would let the market do whatever, that would be so great.
如果我们让市场做任何事，那就太好了。
The market would crush the virus better than the government.”
市场比政府更能消灭病毒。”
I don’t think that’s quite true as stated, but it would have been a very libertarian response.
我认为这并不完全正确，但这将是一个非常自由主义的反应。
Instead, I think there’s been a lot of people who’ve gone down different rabbit holes that haven’t really been that fruitful or have involved very off predictions like, “Oh, this thing will be over with by the fall,” or something.
相反，我认为有很多人陷入了不同的困境，但并没有真正取得成果，或者做出了非常错误的预测，比如“哦，这件事到秋天就会结束”之类的。
When I read that post now, it seems to be a pretty clear distinction.
当我现在读到那篇文章时，这似乎是一个非常明显的区别。
You’re talking about the old emphasis on, as you say, “We just need to let the market go.” The argument is not, this isn’t a risk.
正如你所说，你谈论的是旧的强调，“我们只需要让市场走”。事实并非如此，这不是风险。
It’s that the best way to solve it is to have the strong market response.
解决这个问题的最好办法就是要有强烈的市场反应。
Do you see that as being a clean line here of, when you were writing that post and you were thinking of the kinds of people who were emphasizing state capacity more and what it can do to empower individual action are exactly the people who are now arguing with each other in a libertarian community about response?
你是否认为这是一条清晰的界限，当你写那篇文章时，你想到的是那些更加强调国家能力以及国家能力可以赋予个人行动权力的人正是现在在自由主义社区中相互争论应对措施的人？
I think who ended up where is 80 percent, 85 percent predictable.
我认为谁最终去了哪里是 80%、85% 可以预测的。
I would stress I’m not a big fan of lockdowns.
我要强调的是，我不太喜欢封锁。
I did think, in March, we did the right thing by closing so many things so quickly because we knew so little and had to prepare hospitals and just figure out that you can do things outside.
我确实认为，在三月份，我们做了正确的事情，如此之快地关闭了如此多的事情，因为我们知之甚少，必须让医院做好准备，并弄清楚你可以在外面做事情。
If you’re modestly careful, it’s probably fine almost all of the time.
如果你足够小心，几乎所有时候都可能没问题。
Since then, I don’t think lockdowns have been a good idea.
从那时起，我认为封锁并不是一个好主意。
I think, really, lockdowns are just shifting exposure through time.
我认为，实际上，封锁只是随着时间的推移改变了暴露程度。
What you want to do is get to the point where you are winning the war against the virus, and that you will do better with vaccines and testing.
你想要做的是赢得抗击病毒的战争，并且在疫苗和检测方面做得更好。
Even tracing, I have mixed feelings about.
即使是追踪，我也有复杂的感受。
Clearly, there are countries that have done it well.
显然，有些国家做得很好。
I’m not sure I ever thought that would be possible in the United States.
我不确定我是否曾想过这在美国是可能的。
We are not a trace kind of country, and same with England.
我们不是一丝一毫的国家，英国也是如此。
It’s just not something we’re going to be very good at.
这不是我们擅长的事情。
We’re too big or too complicated or too messy.
我们太大、太复杂、太混乱。
We don’t even have an integrated system of national ID — which I’m fine with, by the way, that we don’t.
我们甚至没有一个完整的国民身份证系统——顺便说一句，我对此很满意，但我们没有。
But given that we don’t have systematic electronic medical records compatible across all systems, odds are trace was never going to work here, in my view.
但鉴于我们没有跨所有系统兼容的系统电子病历，在我看来，跟踪很可能永远不会在这里发挥作用。
A childhood friend of mine and listener to the show, Paul Matzko, suggested this framing, and I’ll just provide it to you: based on the events of 2020, what are the best cases you can make for or against state capacity libertarianism?
我的儿时朋友兼该节目的听众保罗·马茨科 (Paul Matzko) 提出了这个框架，我将其提供给您：根据 2020 年发生的事件，您可以提出哪些支持或反对国家能力自由主义的最佳案例？
Let’s do the pro case.
让我们来做专业案例。
What is the pandemic?
什么是流行病？
How does the pandemic bolster the case for state capacity libertarianism?
这场大流行如何支持国家能力自由主义？
Well, our best program in the United States, Operation Warp Speed, will have ended up making an enormous difference, getting us vaccines sooner and a broader choice of vaccines.
好吧，我们在美国最好的计划“曲速行动”最终将产生巨大的影响，让我们更快地获得疫苗并提供更广泛的疫苗选择。
If some of those in the pipeline had failed, the fact that we invested in this portfolio of seven would have turned out to have been very important.
如果正在酝酿中的一些项目失败了，那么我们投资这七个投资组合的事实将变得非常重要。
As I’m speaking, we’re not completely sure how important that will be, but ex ante, that was a brilliant decision, and arguably, we should have done more.
正如我所说，我们并不完全确定这有多重要，但事前，这是一个明智的决定，可以说，我们应该做得更多。
That’s the good side.
这是好的一面。
I think the downside of state capacity libertarianism is simply realizing there are some very nice features to not being surveilled all the time, as they do in China.
我认为国家能力自由主义的缺点只是意识到不被一直监视有一些非常好的特点，就像在中国所做的那样。
When I said a moment ago that the United States is not very good at trace, though it’s good at innovating — if you had stronger state capacity, presumably you should worry more about state surveillance, and I do.
我刚才说过，美国虽然擅长创新，但在追踪方面不太擅长——如果你有更强的国家能力，想必你应该更担心国家监控，我也是这么做的。
That, to me, is the best case against state capacity libertarianism as I envision it.
对我来说，这是反对我所设想的国家能力自由主义的最好例子。
Even though having a good trace regime would have been fine in this instance, I’m not sure it would have been a good precedent.
尽管在这种情况下拥有良好的跟踪制度就很好，但我不确定这是否是一个好的先例。
Yes, one thinks about the fact that — I think it’s still the case — that Germany can’t do a census because there’s just such a cultural resistance to a census.
是的，人们会想到这样一个事实：“我认为情况仍然如此”，德国无法进行人口普查，因为存在对人口普查的文化抵制。
It’s interesting how these cultural attitudes affect the ability of the government to respond and have these longer-term effects.
有趣的是，这些文化态度如何影响政府的应对能力并产生长期影响。
South Korea did a remarkable trace.
韩国的表现令人瞩目。
One person would get something, and they trace that person to hundreds of others, and then test them.
一个人会得到一些东西，他们会追踪这个人到数百个其他人，然后测试他们。
Just as a logistics operation, just incredible what they did.
就像物流业务一样，他们所做的一切令人难以置信。
Yes, my mother-in-law is Korean and went back to Korea over the summer.
是的，我婆婆是韩国人，暑假就回韩国了。
Her experience traveling there and the procedures — it probably was your ideal version of state capacity because it was very much empowering you to live your life.
她在那里旅行的经历和程序——这可能是你理想的国家能力版本，因为它极大地赋予你过自己的生活的能力。
You were required to take a number of steps, including downloading, I think, three different tracing apps and getting a lot of notifications about exposures and everything else, but she was able to actually have a holiday while she was taking care of some family business.
你需要采取许多步骤，包括下载，我认为，三个不同的追踪应用程序，并收到大量有关暴露和其他一切的通知，但她实际上可以在照顾一些家族生意的同时享受假期。
Here’s the thing.
事情是这样的。
I did not get onto a plane and fly to Korea.
我没有登上飞机飞往韩国。
Now, I would have had to have quarantined — I think there it was for two weeks.
现在，我不得不隔离——我想要隔离两周。
I don’t recall, but whatever the period was, I could have done that.
我不记得了，但无论那段时间是什么，我都可以这么做。
I actually preferred to stay here, but socially, overall, they did quite a good job.
实际上我更喜欢留在这里，但总的来说，在社交方面，他们做得很好。
Revisiting your conversation with Russ, I think it’s instructive for all of us to go back and examine what our attitudes were in middle March when things were starting to shut down, and how long we thought things would last, and so on.
回顾一下你与拉斯的谈话，我认为这对我们所有人来说都是有启发性的，回顾一下三月中旬当事情开始停止时我们的态度是什么，以及我们认为事情会持续多久，等等。
If you read between the lines of what you all were saying, I think the worst-case scenario that you outline was that we’ll still be in a situation like we are now maybe through August, maybe later.
如果你从字里行间读懂你们所说的话，我认为你们概述的最坏情况是我们仍然会处于像现在这样的情况，也许到八月，也许更晚。
I think you open it up to being a little bit later.
我认为你可以晚一点再开放。
I know a lot of this is endogenous, but if we had known that we were in it for a year in March, how do you think things would change?
我知道其中很多都是内生的，但如果我们知道我们在三月份已经在其中度过了一年，您认为事情会发生什么变化？
Would it have made things worse or better?
它会使事情变得更糟还是更好？
I’m not sure it would have mattered because many people have been acting with very short time horizons.
我不确定这是否重要，因为很多人的行动时间范围都很短。
I think, overall, my predictions in that episode are quite good.
我认为，总的来说，我对那一集的预测还是不错的。
I reread it recently.
我最近重读了一遍。
The biggest thing I got wrong was I thought unemployment would stay higher for longer than it did.
我犯的最大错误是我认为失业率会在更高水平上持续更长的时间。
The general underlying mistake in my forecast was I thought people would stay terrified for longer than they did.
我的预测中普遍存在的根本错误是，我认为人们会保持恐惧的时间比实际的时间更长。
They have resumed in many parts of the country in numerous ways.
他们已经以多种方式在该国许多地区恢复。
That has led transmission to last longer in many cases.
在许多情况下，这导致传播持续时间更长。
It’s also helped the job market come back.
这也有助于就业市场的复苏。
That’s what I was off on.
这就是我所关注的。
I think I even said in that dialogue, “Well, we’ll probably have vaccines by March of 2021.” At the time, that was a very bizarre prediction that was not being widely made.
我想我什至在那次对话中说过，“好吧，我们可能会在 2021 年 3 月之前拥有疫苗。”在当时，这是一个非常奇怪的预测，并没有被广泛做出。
It turns out, it’ll have been very, very close to correct.
事实证明，它非常非常接近正确。
I’m also wondering when you’re going to mention the biggest single event in CWT of the whole year.
我还想知道您什么时候会提到 CWT 全年最大的单一活动。
I wonder if we even agree on what it is, but continue.
我想知道我们是否同意它是什么，但请继续。
Oh, my gosh.
哦，天哪。
The tables have turned.
形势已经逆转。
Now I’m scrambling to think of what that could be.
现在我正忙着思考那可能是什么。
It’s a recent episode.
这是最近的一集。
You may not have even heard it yet.
您可能还没有听说过。
Anyway, go on.
不管怎样，继续吧。
Well, I think I know what you’re talking about now, but let’s go back to Twitter, and then we’ll see — we’ll stay somewhat along COVID lines.
好吧，我想我知道你现在在说什么，但让我们回到 Twitter，然后我们就会看到 — 我们会在某种程度上保持与新冠病毒相关的路线。
Brandon Tice on Twitter asked, “What are your tips for planning safe but still enjoyable local road trips?
布兰登·泰斯 (Brandon Tice) 在 Twitter 上问道：“对于规划安全但仍然令人愉快的当地公路旅行，您有什么建议？
Do you think trips are still advisable with an emerging wave?” I know you had spoken earlier about, you went and visited New York.
您认为随着新浪潮的兴起，旅行仍然是可取的吗？”我知道您之前曾说过，您去了纽约。
How would your outlook on trips change?
您对旅行的看法会如何改变？
Do you have anything planned for the winter months?
您对冬季有什么计划吗？
I’m reluctant to tell people they should go because many of them shouldn’t.
我不愿意告诉人们他们应该去，因为他们中的许多人不应该去。
They might be more vulnerable than I am or just less disciplined as travelers.
他们可能比我更脆弱，或者只是作为旅行者不太自律。
When I went to New York, for one thing, I drove up, which I typically never do.
一方面，当我去纽约时，我会开车过去，但我通常不会这样做。
I was not even willing to use the restrooms on the New Jersey Turnpike, which are ghastly in the best of times.
我什至不愿意使用新泽西州收费公路上的卫生间，即使在最好的时候，那里也很糟糕。
I’m just like, “I’m going to pull over the car and do my business right here.” And that, of course, is extremely safe.
我只是想，“我要把车停在路边，在这里做我的事。”当然，这是非常安全的。
New York then had about one-tenth the COVID load that Northern Virginia did when I went.
当时，纽约的新冠病毒感染人数大约是我去时北弗吉尼亚州的十分之一。
I saw more people, but it was all outside.
我看到了更多的人，但都是在外面。
At one-tenth the load, I was pretty sure I was not boosting my net risk, and the trip itself seems safe.
在十分之一的负载下，我很确定我没有增加我的净风险，而且旅行本身似乎很安全。
Again, most people will set out to do something like that.
同样，大多数人都会开始做类似的事情。
I’m not sure if they’ll all pull it off.
我不确定他们是否都能成功。
Right now, I’m hanging around, waiting for my vaccine, figuring out how I will get one.
现在，我正在闲逛，等待我的疫苗，并考虑如何获得疫苗。
I don’t have a trip planned.
我没有计划旅行。
But I don’t need to plan to do a trip, so we’re just going to see how everything goes.
但我不需要计划旅行，所以我们只是看看一切进展如何。
Very well.
很好。
Another question from Twitter from Sighsyphus.“What policy consequences, if any, can we draw from the rapid development of vaccines in response to the pandemic?
Sighsyphus 在推特上提出的另一个问题：“我们可以从应对流感大流行的疫苗的快速开发中得出什么政策后果（如果有的话）？
Is there any way to accelerate innovation in other areas similarly?”
有没有办法类似地加速其他领域的创新？”
I’ll just add on to this.
我将对此进行补充。
I thought it was interesting that in your conversation with Russ, you had already — this is true to form for you — but you had mentioned the notion of big prizes as a way to try to spur innovation.
我认为有趣的是，在你与拉斯的谈话中，你已经 ——“这对你来说是正确的”—— 但你提到了大奖的概念，作为试图刺激创新的一种方式。
Then, in some ways, you could see almost the seeds for Fast Grants being discussed in that conversation, though I know it came separately.
然后，在某些方面，你可以看到在那次谈话中讨论的几乎是快速拨款的种子，尽管我知道它是分开的。
Maybe this is a chance for you to talk a little bit about Fast Grants, but then other ideas that you see, based on the success of the rapid development of vaccines.
也许这是一个机会让你谈谈快速拨款，但你会看到基于疫苗快速开发成功的其他想法。
Including Fast Grants, but not only, the world has seen it can address critical problems much more quickly than it had thought.
包括快速拨款在内，世界不仅看到它能够比想象的更快地解决关键问题。
The use of the internet to spread science was a big factor.
利用互联网传播科学是一个重要因素。
Philanthropists stepping up.
慈善家挺身而出。
My own effort, Fast Grants — the idea that you would get grants to top researchers within a number of days, and make these submission forms super easy.
我自己的努力，快速资助 ——这个想法是你可以在几天内获得顶级研究人员的资助，并使这些提交表格变得非常简单。
Not that people have to worry about what kind of font was being used on the submission.
并不是说人们必须担心提交的内容使用了哪种字体。
Not that they would have to wait six months for an answer, but they would hear back in a few days and get the money a day or two later.
并不是说他们需要等待六个月才能得到答复，而是他们会在几天内收到回复，并在一两天后收到钱。
We showed that can work.
我们证明这是可行的。
We did that to a scale of about $43 million and could have done more.
我们的规模约为 4300 万美元，而且本可以做得更多。
It had a pretty substantial impact.
它产生了相当大的影响。
Not just that, but everyone sees when you put your mind to it, you can be a lot better and do things more quickly.
不仅如此，每个人都会看到，当你用心去做时，你可以做得更好，做事更快。
I hope we keep that lesson emotionally internalized and don’t just do it for the stuff that feels pressing now, but do it for many more things.
我希望我们能在情感上将这一教训内化，不要只为现在感到紧迫的事情做这件事，而是为更多的事情做这件事。
Take dengue — always with us.
以登革热为例——永远伴随着我们。
It’s not a new thing.
这不是什么新鲜事。
It doesn’t command the headlines.
它不占据头条新闻。
It’s a very high number of people each year — it can ruin their lives.
每年的人数都非常多——这可能会毁掉他们的生活。
We should do more.
我们应该做得更多。
We can do more.
我们可以做得更多。
I think the pessimistic case would be, one reason we were able to act so quickly on COVID is because it became this clear focal point where that was the thing to do, to figure out this problem.
我认为悲观的情况是，我们能够如此迅速地对新冠病毒采取行动的原因之一是因为它成为了一个明确的焦点，而这就是我们要做的事情，解决这个问题。
Once we figure out this problem, that energy will dissipate in ways that will prevent the kind of speed that we saw.
一旦我们解决了这个问题，能量就会以阻止我们看到的速度的方式消散。
Do you agree with that take or disagree?
你同意还是不同意这个观点？
It’s certainly true that is a big advantage.
确实，这是一个很大的优势。
But I think as people expand the size and scope of their mental models, they will see you can carve out subsectors of academia, of philanthropy, of government, of private sector that take other maladies very seriously.
但我认为，随着人们扩大心智模型的规模和范围，他们会发现可以开辟出学术界、慈善事业、政府和私营部门等非常重视其他弊病的子部门。
They’re not going to quite have the same urgency.
他们不会有同样的紧迫感。
One big advantage, if you would call it that — not advantage — but other labs were closed unless you were doing COVID work.
一个很大的优势，如果你称之为“——”不是优势“——”但其他实验室都关闭了，除非你正在做新冠病毒工作。
At least for a while, there was a big substitution into COVID work, and that’s not going to be very common.
至少在一段时间内，新冠疫情工作出现了很大的替代，但这种情况不会很常见。
But I also think the other tasks will benefit a lot from the work done on COVID.
但我也认为其他任务将从针对新冠病毒所做的工作中受益匪浅。
The notion of a semi-universal vaccine, a testing to find other viruses, using mRNA vaccine platforms to combat other things — all those will be offshoots of the COVID triumphs.
半通用疫苗的概念、寻找其他病毒的测试、使用 mRNA 疫苗平台来对抗其他事物 ——所有这些都将是新冠疫情胜利的衍生产品。
I believe.
我相信。
I hope.
我希望。
I think.
我认为。
We need to see those through and not just give up on them.
我们需要解决这些问题，而不是放弃它们。
On naming that production function (ii)
关于命名该生产函数 (ii)
Yes.
是的。
All right, let’s jump into the second round of Name That Production Function.
好吧，让我们进入第二轮“命名生产函数”。
These are all related to writing.
这些都与写作有关。
I think these are a little bit easier, but let’s see.
我认为这些更容易一些，但让我们看看。
First one: “From engineering, I learned to start with an outline and decide what I wanted to say and then write all the sections to meet my outline.
第一个：“从工程学开始，我学会了从大纲开始，决定我想说的内容，然后编写所有部分以满足我的大纲。
Justice Breyer taught me just write all my paragraphs and then work backwards to figure out what I had to say after the fact.”
布雷耶法官教我写下所有段落，然后倒着想出事后我要说的话。”
Engineering?
工程？
Justice Breyer?
布雷耶大法官？
Who do we have on these shows?
这些节目中有哪些人？
What I’m learning is that our recollection of these episodes — this is true of me as well — is that a lot of these past episodes just feel a long time ago.
我了解到的是，我们对这些情节的回忆 ——“这对我来说也是如此”—— 很多过去的情节都感觉是很久以前的事了。
I can distinctly remember doing this episode last year, and the episodes felt very fresh to me.
我清楚地记得去年拍过这一集，这些集对我来说非常新鲜。
But this year, it feels like long periods of time have passed since we’ve recorded some of these.
但今年，自从我们记录其中一些内容以来，感觉已经过去了很长一段时间。
This person studied engineering at MIT and then became a lawyer.
此人在麻省理工学院学习工程学，然后成为一名律师。
Studied at MIT and then became a lawyer.
就读于麻省理工学院，后成为一名律师。
Hmmm, I don’t know.
嗯，我不知道。
Who is that?
那是谁？
That is Rachel Harmon, who you spoke to about policing because she’s done a lot of scholarship on policing.
那是雷切尔·哈蒙（Rachel Harmon），你曾与她谈论过警务工作，因为她在警务方面做了很多学术研究。
Oh, of course.
哦，当然。
I brought a little cheat sheet list, and you gave me a cheat sheet list.
我带来了一份备忘单清单，你也给了我一份备忘单清单。
I made the mistake of looking at mine rather than yours, and her name wasn’t on it.
我犯了一个错误，看的是我的而不是你的，而且上面没有她的名字。
That’s why — not that I forgot her episode.
这就是为什么 ——并不是我忘记了她的情节。
It was a good episode.
这是一个很好的插曲。
Yes, it is a good episode and, I think, worth revisiting.
是的，这是一个很好的插曲，我认为值得重温。
Yes, studied engineering at MIT, and then became a lawyer and talked about how those two ways of viewing the world have been useful for her, not just in writing.
是的，她在麻省理工学院学习工程学，然后成为一名律师，并谈到这两种看待世界的方式对她有用，而不仅仅是在写作中。
Second one on writing: “In college, I would munch on a box of Dunkin’ Donuts to get through a term paper.
第二个关于写作：“在大学里，我会咀嚼一盒邓肯甜甜圈来完成学期论文。
Now, I find whatever cookies my kids have.
现在，我会找到我孩子们拥有的所有饼干。
I always have some sweet junk food.
我总是吃一些甜的垃圾食品。
This is probably not really great advice for anybody, but it’s just my habit now.”
这对任何人来说可能都不是一个很好的建议，但这只是我现在的习惯。”
Is that Emily St. John Mandel?
那是艾米丽·圣约翰·曼德尔吗？
No, this is Ashley Mears.
不，这是阿什利·米尔斯。
Okay, that very good episode.
好吧，那一集非常精彩。
One of the best of the year, I thought.
我想，这是今年最好的之一。
Yes.
是的。
Ashley Mears, I think, performed well.
我认为阿什利·米尔斯表现得很好。
I was worried people wouldn’t give it a chance, but from the numbers, people seem to have given it a chance, and I think those who listened to it really enjoyed it.
我担心人们不会给它一个机会，但从数字来看，人们似乎给了它一个机会，我认为那些听过它的人真的很喜欢它。
All right, next one: “I haven’t always found writing easy at all.
好吧，下一篇：“我并不总是觉得写作一点都容易。
I’ve been to a lot of therapy of various types to stabilize myself emotionally and psychologically.
我接受过很多不同类型的治疗来稳定自己的情绪和心理。
I still do.
我仍然这样做。
It’s very important for me in handling the stresses that arise in writing.
处理写作中出现的压力对我来说非常重要。
And one of the things I’ve realized in the course of that is, actually, rather than thinking it was something terrifying that I had to steel myself to do, the best way to think about it was something I do every day, so it’s like exercise.
在此过程中我意识到的一件事是，实际上，与其认为这是一件可怕的事情，我必须让自己坚强起来去做，最好的思考方式是我每天都在做的事情，所以这就像锻炼一样。
If I have the chance, I like to exercise.
如果有机会，我喜欢锻炼身体。
It’s a puzzling activity.
这是一项令人费解的活动。
I just treat it almost like a game, rearranging the words, trying to fix things.”
我只是把它当作一场游戏，重新排列文字，试图解决问题。”
Now, was that Emily St. John Mandel?
那是艾米丽·圣约翰·曼德尔吗？
No. Who is it?
不，是谁？
This is Adam Tooze.
这是亚当·图兹。
Okay.
好的。
Adam Tooze, who writes very prolifically but confessed that it was a struggle for him.
亚当·图兹（Adam Tooze）的著作非常多，但他承认这对他来说是一场斗争。
One breakthrough that he’s had is similar to you, but he’s just changing his mindset to a default.
他的一个突破和你很相似，但他只是把他的心态变成了一种默认。
It’s just something he does and doesn’t think about.
这只是他做了但没有考虑的事情。
He doesn’t psych himself up to do it anymore.
他不再鼓起勇气去做这件事了。
It’s just something like brushing your teeth.
这就像刷牙一样。
It’s just something you do.
这只是你做的事情。
Yeah, yeah.
是啊是啊。
Okay.
好的。
“My parents really loved books.
“我的父母非常喜欢书籍。
We always had a ton of books in the house.
我们家里总是有很多书。
We went to the library every week.
我们每周都去图书馆。
I had an enormous time to read.
我有大量的时间来阅读。
There was a period of time when one of the requirements of the curriculum was that I had to write something every day.
曾经有一段时间，课程的要求之一就是我必须每天写点东西。
That’s what got me writing in the first place.
这就是我最初写作的原因。
I might have had a completely different life if I hadn’t had so much time to spend reading and such a focus on books.”
如果我没有那么多时间读书并专注于书籍，我的生活可能会完全不同。”
I’m going to guess Emily St. John Mandel again.
我会再次猜测艾米丽·圣约翰·曼德尔。
Third time’s the charm.
第三次就是魅力所在。
You’re correct.
你是对的。
That one was Emily St. John Mandel.
那个人就是艾米丽·圣约翰·曼德尔。
Thank you for playing Name That Production Function.
感谢您玩“命名那个生产函数”。
Is it just me or did you not explicitly ask it this much this year?
是我一个人的问题，还是今年你没有明确问这么多？
I was reviewing the conversations.
我正在回顾那些对话。
I did leave some out for this segment, but it also didn’t seem to come up as explicitly as a segment.
我确实为这个片段留下了一些内容，但它似乎也没有像一个片段那样明确地出现。
If it came up, it was a little more—
如果出现的话，那就有点多了——
Organic, yes.
有机，是的。
I just think you have to vary somewhat and not become too formulaic.
我只是认为你必须有所改变，不要变得太公式化。
Even if something is good or people like it, better to leave them wanting more than they just know it’s coming all the time.
即使某件事是好的或者人们喜欢它，最好还是让他们想要更多，而不是他们知道它会一直到来。
That’s part of my production function.
这是我的生产函数的一部分。
On Tyler’s personal highlight of the year
关于泰勒今年的个人亮点
You mentioned that I haven’t brought up the big highlight of the year.
你提到我还没有提到今年的大亮点。
What is it, Tyler?
这是什么，泰勒？
Do you want to quiz me?
你想考考我吗？
Or do you want to just tell me what you think of as your highlight of the year?
或者你想告诉我你认为今年的亮点是什么？
You tell me what you think it is?
你告诉我你认为它是什么？
From context clues, I’m guessing it’s your interview with John Brennan.
从上下文线索来看，我猜这是您对约翰·布伦南的采访。
That’s correct, and one of my questions in particular.
这是正确的，尤其是我的问题之一。
I am reluctant to speak for him because the exact wording is very important and careful.
我不愿意为他说话，因为准确的措辞非常重要和谨慎。
I urge you all to check the transcript, but I asked him about UFOs, and I pushed him on it.
我敦促大家检查文字记录，但我向他询问了不明飞行物的情况，并敦促他这样做。
As I understood his answer — again, with this caveat: please read and listen to his words, don’t take my word for it — but I took him to be saying that the single most likely explanation was, in some way, alien beings.
当我理解他的答案时，“再次强调：请阅读并听他的话，不要相信我的话”，但我认为他是在说，在某种程度上，最有可能的解释是外星人。
He wasn’t saying that’s higher than 50 percent, but simply that of all the explanations, he didn’t see a better one than that.
他并不是说这个比例高于 50%，只是说在所有的解释中，他没有看到比这更好的解释了。
He was head of the CIA for, what, four years.
他担任中央情报局局长四年了。
Now, he wasn’t pretending to know.
现在，他不再假装知道。
He’s not like, “Oh, I’ve got the little green men hidden under the ground somewhere in Langley.” Just after having thought about it long and hard, he thought we needed to seriously entertain that possibility.
他不会说，“哦，我把小绿人藏在兰利某个地方的地下。”经过长时间的思考后，他认为我们需要认真考虑这种可能性。
But again, please check his words.
但再次请检查他的话。
One of the crazy things about 2020 has been this under-discussed acceptance of what you just described, that it has become more — mainstream is the wrong word — but more accepted among smart people that we may be seeing actual signs of alien life.
2020 年最疯狂的事情之一是，人们对你刚才描述的内容的接受程度没有得到充分讨论，它已经变得更加 ——“主流这个词是错误的”——但聪明人更容易接受我们可能看到外星生命的实际迹象。
It may not be likely, but it’s becoming the most likely explanation.
这可能不太可能，但它正在成为最有可能的解释。
Even if it is, which I give 5 percent .
即使是这样，我也给 5%。
.
。
.
。
I’ve been saying it’s almost certainly drones, not that the proverbial little green men are inside.
我一直在说几乎可以肯定是无人机，而不是众所周知的小绿人在里面。
But it should be a big, big thing, and it isn’t.
但这应该是一件很大很大的事情，但事实并非如此。
That to me is so startling.
这对我来说太令人震惊了。
Brennan can say what he said.
布伦南可以说出他所说的话。
It won’t be on the front page of the New York Times.
它不会出现在《纽约时报》的头版上。
Some number of people will talk about it.
有些人会谈论它。
To me that’s more remarkable than the phenomenon itself.
对我来说，这比现象本身更引人注目。
It’s the lack of interest.
这就是缺乏兴趣。
“Oh, the Fermi paradox.
“哦，费米悖论。
Well, it turns out, they’ve been here.
好吧，事实证明，他们来过这里。
Oh, whatever.
哦，无论如何。
Okay, forget about that one.”
好吧，忘掉那个吧。”
Yes.
是的。
I think that relates back to COVID, too, because in any dramatization of a pandemic, it is so focal.
我认为这也与新冠病毒有关，因为在任何有关流行病的戏剧中，它都是如此的焦点。
It is the thing that everyone is thinking about all the time, and that has not been the case for — even for someone like me, there were certainly days when I’m not driving through quarantine checkpoints.
这是每个人一直在思考的事情，但情况并非如此——即使对于像我这样的人来说，也肯定有几天我没有开车通过检疫检查站。
I’m living my life in my house and trying to keep to myself.
我在自己的房子里过着自己的生活，并努力保持独处。
Similarly, there have been a number of stories that have come out in 2020 that if you were experiencing the movie version of this, it would be a huge thing that the characters would be listening to on the radio.
同样，2020 年出现了许多故事，如果你正在体验这个故事的电影版本，那么角色们在广播中听到的将是一件大事。
Everyone would be buzzing about it.
每个人都会对此议论纷纷。
They’ve just gone totally unnoticed.
他们完全没有被注意到。
I’ve never seen a year like this, right?
我从来没有见过这样的一年，对吗？
Yeah.
是的。
In some ways, you think about how the history books will be written about it because we think it’ll be all COVID.
在某些方面，你会想到历史书将如何书写它，因为我们认为这将全部是新冠病毒。
It might be all these crazy discoveries that we made in 2020, some of which had something to do with COVID, but many of which didn’t.
可能是我们在 2020 年做出的所有这些疯狂的发现，其中一些与新冠病毒有关，但也有很多与新冠病毒无关。
SpaceX and protein folding.
SpaceX 和蛋白质折叠。
A lot happened this year that, arguably, is getting us out of the great stagnation.
今年发生了很多事情，可以说是让我们摆脱了大停滞。
Some more questions from Twitter.
Twitter 上还有一些问题。
Then we’ll wrap it up.
然后我们就把它包起来。
Paul Tilley on Twitter asked, “What industries or groups surprised you in their response to COVID, good or bad?”
保罗·蒂利 (Paul Tilley) 在 Twitter 上问道：“哪些行业或团体对新冠病毒的反应令你感到惊讶，无论是好还是坏？”
That the NBA just shut down all games as early as it did in March was brilliant and prescient, and that they would have the guts to pull the button on that rather than dragging it out.
NBA早在三月份就关闭了所有比赛，这是明智和有先见之明的，他们有勇气按下按钮而不是拖延下去。
I give them a big A+ for it.
我给他们一个很大的A+。
That surprised me.
这让我很惊讶。
I’ve always liked the NBA, but for that, they deserve a prize.
我一直很喜欢 NBA，但为此，他们应该得到一个奖项。
On the downside, I don’t think you should blame small businesses or businesses for wanting to reopen, even if it’s bad for society.
不利的一面是，我认为你不应该责怪小企业或想要重新开业的企业，即使这对社会不利。
Maybe you should blame the people who go.
也许你应该责怪那些离开的人。
But just the ease at which people have considered going to these very large-scale events, like college football games, in a way that, to me, just doesn’t make any sense.
但人们考虑去参加这些非常大规模的活动，比如大学橄榄球比赛，在某种程度上，对我来说，是没有任何意义的。
I believe in intertemporal substitution: if you can, don’t do it for a year, but next year, go to twice as many games.
我相信跨期替代：如果可以的话，一年内不要这样做，但明年，去看两倍的比赛。
And how hard people find that to do is really striking.
人们发现做到这一点有多么困难，真是令人震惊。
We actually need to incorporate it into our economic models.
我们实际上需要将其纳入我们的经济模型中。
I can travel less this year, and next year, vaccinated, I might take more trips if the world will let me.
今年我可以减少旅行，明年接种疫苗后，如果世界允许的话，我可能会进行更多旅行。
Do more face-to-face CWTs and so on.
进行更多面对面的 CWT 等。
Hang out with Lydia Davis, whatever.
不管怎样，和莉迪亚·戴维斯一起出去玩。
But people don’t think that way.
但人们不这么认为。
It’s more a utility function of habit formation than intertemporal substitution than I would have thought, and I already knew the behavioral evidence on that.
与我想象的相比，它更像是习惯形成的效用函数，而不是跨期替代，而且我已经知道这方面的行为证据。
So it’s not that I’m completely in the dark that people aren’t entirely rational, but even then I’ve revised my priors.
所以，并不是说我完全不知道人们并不完全理性，但即便如此，我还是修改了我的先验知识。
Another question, from Nikkhil Mulani: “Any big changes to your production function in 2020 that you think will stick around for the future?”
Nikkhil Mulani 提出的另一个问题是：“2020 年你们的生产职能有任何重大变化，您认为这些变化会持续到未来吗？”
Oh, will stick .
哦，会坚持的。
.
。
.
。
Doing these by Zoom will partially stick, I suspect.
我怀疑，通过 Zoom 进行这些操作会部分坚持下去。
I think I wake up slightly later in the morning.
我想我早上会稍微晚一点起床。
Not by much, just by 10 to 15 minutes.
不是很多，只是10到15分钟。
I wonder if that will stick.
我想知道这是否会坚持下去。
Cooking more?
做饭多了？
Nah, that’s not going to stick.
不，那不会坚持下去。
Mostly, I’ll go back, I hope.
大多数情况下，我希望我会回去。
Again, it’s when the world lets me is the binding constraint, and I think it will.
再说一次，当世界让我成为约束力时，我认为它会的。
You mentioned in your conversation with Russ that you thought that there would be an average is over aspect to the return to face-to-face, that more would happen over Zoom or remotely because we’ve gotten better at it.
你在与 Russ 的谈话中提到，你认为回归面对面会带来平均的结果，通过 Zoom 或远程会发生更多的事情，因为我们在这方面已经做得更好了。
Then, the face-to-face — you would require more of it, that you would savor it, that there might be some exuberant return to face-to-face.
然后，面对面——你会需要更多，你会品味它，可能会有一些旺盛的回归面对面的感觉。
Do you think that’s going to happen, vaccine rollout?
您认为疫苗的推出会发生这种情况吗？
I used more explicit language than that, if you recall.
如果你还记得的话，我使用了比这更明确的语言。
It may happen before vaccine rollout.
这可能发生在疫苗推出之前。
But I think that will be the case.
但我认为情况会是这样。
There’ll be a certain amount of people going crazy.
会有一定数量的人发疯。
That might just mean a lot of trips to the shopping mall.
这可能意味着要经常去购物中心。
It might mean other things that we won’t mention on a family podcast.
这可能意味着我们不会在家庭播客中提及的其他事情。
But a lot of people have just returned to normal routines already.
但很多人已经恢复正常生活了。
Again, that’s a big part of what surprised me, but certainly not, say, in California or New York — you haven’t really been able to.
再说一遍，这是让我感到惊讶的一个重要部分，但当然不是，比如说，在加利福尼亚或纽约——你还没有真正能够做到。
Have you thought at all about how it might be determined by locality?
你有没有想过它是如何由地方决定的？
I mean, living in DC, I could see what was happening in Maryland.
我的意思是，住在华盛顿，我可以看到马里兰州正在发生的事情。
I could see what was happening in DC.
我可以看到华盛顿正在发生什么。
I could easily see what was happening in Virginia.
我可以很容易地看到弗吉尼亚州正在发生什么。
Then, for anyone who’s done any interstate travel by car, it’s striking the degree to which you can sense the different response just passing through.
然后，对于任何驾车进行过州际旅行的人来说，你在路过时就能感受到不同的反应，这是令人震惊的。
In a place like DC or, say, LA, which is still very “You have to wear a mask in public,” versus other places where it’s “Oh well, only indoors.” It’s a little more laissez-faire, even if they have restrictions on the books.
在像华盛顿或洛杉矶这样的地方，仍然是“你必须在公共场合戴口罩”，而其他地方则“哦，好吧，只能在室内”。即使他们对书籍有限制，这也更加自由一些。
I wonder if that will linger.
我想知道这是否会持续下去。
You go to DC, and playground etiquette will be different than playground etiquette in North Carolina or whatever.
你去华盛顿，游乐场礼仪将与北卡罗来纳州或其他地方的游乐场礼仪不同。
I think it will.
我想会的。
We’ve been cut off from each other.
我们已经彼此隔绝了。
People don’t quite know how other places are, what they’re doing, how they feel.
人们不太了解其他地方的情况、他们在做什么、他们的感受如何。
I’ve been to Maryland, Chesapeake, West Virginia, southern Ohio, New Jersey, New York City, New York State, and Northern Virginia of course, the part of Maryland near DC, and each and every one of those areas has been quite different.
我去过马里兰州、切萨皮克、西弗吉尼亚州、俄亥俄州南部、新泽西州、纽约市、纽约州和北弗吉尼亚州，当然还有马里兰州靠近华盛顿特区的部分地区，每一个地区都有很大不同。
Again, I’m not sure that’s something I would have expected.
再说一次，我不确定这是否是我所期望的。
It’s a counter to these globalization, homogenization arguments, and I do think much of that will stick.
这是对全球化、同质化论点的反驳，我确实认为其中大部分将会持续下去。
All right, last question through Twitter from Craig Paulson, EV fellow.
好吧，最后一个问题是电动汽车研究员 Craig Paulson 通过 Twitter 提出的。
He asked when we’re going to get the book with Daniel Gross on talent.
他问我们什么时候能买到丹尼尔·格罗斯写的关于人才的书。
This is your next book, I believe.
我相信这是你的下一本书。
Any update on timeline there?
时间线有更新吗？
We have a draft of about 80,000 words, if I recall.
如果我没记错的话，我们的草稿大约有 80,000 字。
It is not finished, but it is well along.
它还没有完成，但进展顺利。
The when depends exactly on the publisher.
何时完全取决于出版商。
Of course, we’re recording this before it is being presented to all you listeners.
当然，我们会在将其呈现给所有听众之前将其录制下来。
I expect that by the time you’re hearing this, I will know when, but at the moment, I don’t quite know exactly when.
我希望当你听到这个消息时，我会知道什么时候，但目前，我不太知道确切的时间。
But it’s well along.
但相处得很好。
It’s not a figment dream in our heads.
这不是我们头脑中虚构的梦想。
It exists.
它存在。
It needs to be better.
它需要变得更好。
It needs to be finished, but it will come out, and not five years from now.
它需要完成，但它会问世，而不是五年后。
All right.
好的。
Let’s switch to thinking about the year ahead.
让我们转而思考未来的一年。
I’m going to ask you to channel your — I don’t know — your super forecasting abilities.
我要请你发挥你的 —— 我不知道 —— 你的超级预测能力。
First question: will you be moving to Substack in the coming year?
第一个问题：明年您会转向 Substack 吗？
I write for free on Marginal Revolution.
我免费为《边际革命》撰写文章。
I’m fully aware that people who do Substack can earn a lot of money, but I’d actually rather have the bigger audience.
我完全知道做 Substack 的人可以赚很多钱，但实际上我更希望拥有更多的受众。
As you all know, Conversations with Tyler is free.
众所周知，《与泰勒对话》是免费的。
There’re no ads.
没有广告。
It’s fully open.
它是完全开放的。
I just think that to have audiences like this is a privilege greater than the money.
我只是觉得拥有这样的观众是比金钱更重要的特权。
I know that’s weird, but —
我知道这很奇怪，但是 ——
No, I very much enjoy producing a podcast that we don’t have to worry about monetizing it explicitly by running ads.
不，我非常喜欢制作播客，我们不必担心通过投放广告来明确地货币化。
As much as I would enjoy having Tyler read ad copy every episode , I think that would get old quickly.
尽管我很喜欢让泰勒阅读每一集的广告文案，但我认为这很快就会过时。
In what months do you think we will record the first in-person CWT?
您认为我们将在几个月内录制第一个现场 CWT？
Oh, I think that’s pretty random.
哦，我认为这很随机。
It could be quite soon if it’s outdoors.
如果是在户外，可能很快就会发生。
It could just be someone I know and trust.
可能只是我认识并信任的人。
I’m not sure where I’ll be in priority line for vaccines, but I’ll say February.
我不确定我会优先接种疫苗，但我会说二月。
All right, February.
好吧，二月。
We have talked about doing one outdoors.
我们已经讨论过在户外做一件事。
It depends on you and Dallas and other people.
这取决于你和达拉斯以及其他人。
If you all don’t want to do it, we’re not going to do it.
如果你们都不愿意做，我们就不做。
Someone has to be there to make it work.
必须有人在场才能使其发挥作用。
It is unanimity rule.
这是一致同意的规则。
It’s not my say-so.
这不是我说的。
I think the big issue has been travel.
我认为最大的问题是旅行。
If you have to travel, then it’s harder to do it safely.
如果你必须旅行，那么安全就更难了。
Certainly, if the people are local, that’s something we can accommodate.
当然，如果人们是当地人，我们可以容纳。
Will we hold a live event for CWT, a live recording in 2021?
我们会在 2021 年为 CWT 举办现场活动，进行现场录音吗？
Calendar 2021, I’ll predict yes, but not in the spring.
2021 年，我预测是的，但不是在春天。
I think so too.
我也这么认为。
Again, maybe with the caveat that in the warmer months.
再次，也许需要注意的是，在温暖的月份里。
It’s not necessarily that everyone has gotten a vaccine, but —
不一定每个人都接种了疫苗，但是 ——
Here’s the thing.
事情是这样的。
The auditorium is not booked.
礼堂没有被预订。
That’s a big head start.
这是一个很大的领先优势。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
Not related to CWT, when will you watch a movie in a theater with people you don’t know?
与CWT无关，你什么时候会和不认识的人一起去电影院看电影？
Oh, last week.
哦，上周。
Oh, you’ve done it?
哦，你做到了吗？
Well, you rent out the theater privately.
好吧，你私人租用剧院。
Natasha invited two of her Russian friends in a theater that seats 150.
娜塔莎邀请她的两个俄罗斯朋友来到一个可容纳 150 人的剧院。
I’m like, “I don’t know these people.
我想，“我不认识这些人。
Do you trust them?” She does, and she gave me really very convincing evidence that they’re even past the point of optimal safety and to sit in opposite corners of a huge theater.
你信任他们吗？”她确实这么做了，而且她给了我非常令人信服的证据，证明他们甚至已经超越了最佳安全点，坐在了一个大剧院的相对角落。
I’ve been renting out theaters a few times.
我已经租过几次剧院了。
It’s not as much as you think.
它并不像你想象的那么多。
I hope the price doesn’t go up.
我希望价格不要上涨。
It’s a great thing to do.
这是一件很棒的事情。
You got out of that question on a technicality.
你从技术角度回答了这个问题。
You were with people you don’t know, but I was thinking specifically of a scenario in which you’re buying a ticket, and you don’t have control of the theater.
你和不认识的人在一起，但我特别想到了这样一个场景：你买票，但你无法控制剧院。
When do you think that’ll happen for you?
你认为这会发生在你身上什么时候？
The second vaccine dose is two or three weeks after the first.
第二剂疫苗接种第一剂后两到三周。
So, that day.
那么，那天。
No, you need some time for immunity to kick in, so that’s probably another two weeks.
不，你需要一些时间让免疫力发挥作用，所以可能还需要两周的时间。
Is that an answer to the question of, what’s the first thing you’re going to be doing as soon as that immunity takes hold?
这是对“一旦获得免疫力后你要做的第一件事是什么”这个问题的答案吗？
It depends on what’s showing, but that’s the first thing I want to do.
这取决于展示的内容，但这是我想做的第一件事。
What speaks to you about the theater experience?
关于剧院体验，您有什么想说的吗？
Do you care about the technical specs of projection and sound?
您关心投影和声音的技术规格吗？
Is it being with others?
是和别人在一起吗？
Everything.
一切。
It’s everything.
这就是一切。
It’s the greatest art form of the 20th century.
它是20世纪最伟大的艺术形式。
I was born in the 20th century, and I’m going to stick with that form as long as I can and see what it does for me.
我出生在 20 世纪，我会尽可能坚持这种形式，看看它对我有什么好处。
It’s not always good.
这并不总是好的。
I’m very willing to walk out, but I want to be in the theater again seeing a new release and not having to pay $100 to rent out the whole thing.
我很愿意走出去，但我想再次去剧院看新上映的电影，而不必支付 100 美元来出租整个剧院。
But in the meantime, I will pay up, yes.
但与此同时，我会付钱，是的。
I hope that you will be able to enjoy a theater and enjoy going to see movies with other people.
我希望您能够享受剧院并享受与其他人一起看电影的乐趣。
I hope that we will be able to see each other face-to-face.
我希望我们能够面对面地见面。
I don’t think we’ve even seen each other face-to-face since maybe April when I recorded the Tetlock episode remotely.
我想自从四月我远程录制 Tetlock 剧集以来，我们甚至没有面对面见过对方。
We were very concerned with disinfecting the microphone and wearing gloves.
我们非常关心麦克风的消毒和戴手套。
Masks were not a thing yet, but we did it in a socially distanced way.
当时还没有戴口罩，但我们以保持社交距离的方式戴口罩。
I am looking forward to a resumption of some face-to-face with Conversations with Tyler in the next year.
我期待着明年与泰勒恢复一些面对面的对话。
Before I go, I want to thank everyone on the team who has helped make our switch this year possible.
在我离开之前，我要感谢团队中的每个人，他们帮助我们今年的转变成为可能。
There’s been a lot of work done behind the scenes to prep guests and to equip them with equipment they need to keep the quality of the conversations high.
为了让客人做好准备并为他们配备保持高对话质量所需的设备，我们在幕后做了很多工作。
Let me give a shout-out to everyone who helped out this year.
让我向今年所有提供帮助的人表示感谢。
That’s Dallas Floer, Grauben Lara, Caitlyn Schmidt, Kate Brown, Kate De Lanoy, Mike Hopper, Sloane Shearman, Karen Plante, Christina Behe, Haley Larsen, Anna McVae, Carter Woolly, and Ashley Schiller.
他们是达拉斯·弗洛尔、格劳本·劳拉、凯特琳·施密特、凯特·布朗、凯特·德拉诺伊、迈克·霍珀、斯隆·谢尔曼、凯伦·普兰特、克里斯蒂娜·贝赫、海莉·拉森、安娜·麦克维、卡特·伍利和阿什利·席勒。
Thank you all very much.
非常感谢大家。
We look forward to another year of production.
我们期待着又一年的生产。
You remember that list better than I remember people’s production functions.
你对这个列表的记得比我对人们的生产函数的记得还要清楚。
I would second and third that wholeheartedly.
我会全心全意地第二和第三。
Thanks to you all for listening and reading.
感谢大家的收听和阅读。
A great pleasure to have you as an audience.
很高兴有您作为观众。
And you yourself, Jeff, obviously should be on the list.
杰夫，你自己显然应该在名单上。
Thanks, Tyler.
谢谢，泰勒。