Claudia Goldin on the Economics of Inequality (Ep. 133)
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today I’m chatting with Claudia Goldin, who is, quite simply, one of the leading economists.
今天我正在与克劳迪娅·戈尔丁（Claudia Goldin）聊天，很简单，她是领先的经济学家之一。
She is professor of economics at Harvard University, has made major contributions to economic history, the theory of income inequality, economics of education, gender economics, and much more.
她是哈佛大学经济学教授，对经济史、收入不平等理论、教育经济学、性别经济学等做出了重大贡献。
Most exciting of all, she has a new and excellent book out, called Career and Family: Women’s Century–Long Journey toward Equity.
最令人兴奋的是，她出版了一本优秀的新书，名为《职业与家庭：女性的世纪——走向公平的漫漫长路》。
Claudia, welcome.
克劳迪娅，欢迎。
Well, I’m very, very pleased to be here, Tyler.
嗯，我非常非常高兴来到这里，泰勒。
Let me ask a question I’ve been wondering about.
问一个我一直想知道的问题。
Why does China, right now, have so many of the world’s self-made female billionaires?
为什么中国现在有这么多世界上白手起家的女性亿万富翁？
I don’t know, but I wouldn’t mind being one.
我不知道，但我不介意成为其中之一。
COWEN: But it’s a big change in the payment of women, and it’s happened in one place.
COWEN：但这对女性的薪酬来说是一个巨大的变化，而且它发生在一个地方。
It hasn’t happened in America.
这在美国还没有发生。
As you well know, it’s a very large country.
众所周知，这是一个非常大的国家。
Let’s face it, Chinese women became more liberated during the Communist Revolution.
让我们面对现实吧，中国妇女在共产主义革命期间变得更加解放。
Anyone who went to China during the period after the revolution saw that women really did work alongside men.
任何在革命后时期去过中国的人都会看到，女性确实与男性一起工作。
There’s no question then that equality has escaped China, as it has escaped much of the world, but I do get the sense .
毫无疑问，平等已经脱离了中国，就像它已经脱离了世界大部分地区一样，但我确实明白了这一点。
.
。
.
。
I was there in 1975, which is a very long story.
1975年我去过那里，这是一个很长的故事。
I met many different people who were in some middle ranks, upper-middle ranks of the party, and there were a lot of women.
我遇到了很多不同的人，他们都是党的中层、中上层，其中有很多女性。
Let’s face it, there weren’t a lot of women in 1975 in Congress, and certainly not in the White House.
让我们面对现实吧，1975 年国会中女性人数并不多，白宫当然也没有。
But if we look at a CCP meeting today — a photo — it just seems to be all men, right?
但如果我们看今天的中共会议 —— 一张照片 —— 似乎全都是男人，对吗？
There’s no Nancy Pelosi in there.
那里没有南希·佩洛西。
At the middle level, women don’t seem to earn that well in China, but somehow, at the very top, there’s been this big breakthrough.
在中层，中国女性的收入似乎并不高，但不知何故，在最高层，却出现了巨大的突破。
Well, kudos to them.
嗯，向他们致敬。
On the pay gap
关于薪酬差距
A question about America.
关于美国的问题。
As you’ve shown, from 1995 to 2008 in the US, the gender earnings gap actually expanded.
正如你所展示的，从 1995 年到 2008 年，美国的性别收入差距实际上在扩大。
Why was that?
为什么会这样？
Oh, it didn’t expand that much.
哦，还没有扩大那么多。
We’re talking about blips on blips.
我们谈论的是光点上的光点。
It expanded more for the higher educated than for the lower educated — or should I say, it actually closed for the lower educated, whereas it stagnated for the higher educated, and the latter — a lot of that is due to the enormous expansion of inequality at the top.
它对受过高等教育的人的扩张比对受教育程度较低的人的扩张更大——或者我应该说，它实际上对受教育程度较低的人关闭了，而对受过高等教育的人则停滞不前——而后者在很大程度上是由于顶层不平等的巨大扩张。
Women paid a relative price for the fact that inequality just zoomed upward.
女性为不平等加剧这一事实付出了相对代价。
How much of that do you think is due to the growth of super firms?
您认为其中有多少是由于超级公司的增长造成的？
Especially in tech and finance, those seem to be fairly male-intensive areas.
尤其是在科技和金融领域，这些领域似乎是男性相当密集的领域。
If they’re earning much more at the upper end, that would push up the income gap.
如果他们的收入较高，那么收入差距就会扩大。
I think it’s less that than the distribution itself, that men, for lots of different reasons, tend to be in the way-right tail.
我认为，与分布本身相比，男性由于多种不同的原因往往处于右尾。
That’s going to be in finance.
这将是在金融领域。
It’s not just in tech; it’s going to be in all areas.
这不仅是在科技领域，也是在科技领域。它将出现在所有领域。
It’s going to be in surgery.
它将进行手术。
It’s going to be in dentistry.
它将在牙科领域。
It’s going to be in lots of different self-employment.
它将出现在许多不同的自营职业中。
It seems scalability should really matter.
看来可扩展性确实很重要。
I could be the world’s best dentist.
我可以成为世界上最好的牙医。
I can’t serve that many customers or patients well —
我无法很好地服务那么多顾客或病人 —
Thank goodness.
感谢上帝。
— but I won’t be the next Mark Zuckerberg, right?
— 但我不会成为下一个马克·扎克伯格，对吧？
Right, but finance is certainly scalable.
是的，但金融确实是可扩展的。
Let’s face it, surgeons are — when we look at the data that’s been put together for the upper, upper end — surgeons tend to be up there too.
让我们面对现实吧，外科医生 —— 当我们查看为上端、上端汇总的数据时 ——外科医生往往也在上面。
Now, you’ve argued in your book and in numerous articles that flexibility of hours is a critical variable for thinking about the earnings gap between men and women.
现在，您在书中和许多文章中都指出，工作时间的灵活性是考虑男女收入差距的一个关键变量。
If we look at the literature on firms, we seem to see that fixed costs are rising, intangible capital is rising, lower marginal cost, higher markups.
如果我们看一下有关企业的文献，我们似乎会发现固定成本正在上升，无形资本正在上升，边际成本较低，加价较高。
Does that mean that flexible working hours are hard to achieve when fixed costs are high?
这是否意味着在固定成本较高的情况下，弹性工作时间很难实现？
You would think when fixed costs are high, you want to basically take the people you have and drive them as much as possible, which, in fact, you see in finance and in tech.
你可能会认为，当固定成本很高时，你基本上会想要利用现有的人员并尽可能地驱动他们，事实上，你在金融和科技领域看到了这一点。
Right.
正确的。
So, should we be pessimistic about gender pay equity moving forward?
那么，我们是否应该对未来性别薪酬平等持悲观态度？
The fixed cost here can also be coming from certain labor, from training, but you’re saying that the fixed costs are all that capital per labor has increased?
这里的固定成本也可以来自某些劳动力，来自培训，但你是说固定成本就是每劳动力资本增加的全部？
Or its branding.
或者它的品牌。
Facebook, Google are very famous companies.
Facebook、谷歌都是非常有名的公司。
They’ve achieved a certain position.
他们已经取得了一定的地位。
At the margin, they want to work the people they hire fairly hard.
在边际上，他们希望他们雇用的员工能够相当努力地工作。
Yes, but it doesn’t seem that difficult to create a small amount of redundancy to have good substitutes.
是的，但创造少量的冗余来拥有好的替代品似乎并不困难。
All of these firms have professionals — think about consulting firms, accounting firms, banks, financial corporations, lawyers — all of them have individuals who are quite special, quite unique.
所有这些公司都有专业人士——想想咨询公司、会计师事务所、银行、金融公司、律师——他们都有非常特别、非常独特的个人。
And yet, I don’t think it takes that much to create a small amount of redundancy so you can have people hand things off.
然而，我认为不需要那么多就能创造少量的冗余，这样你就可以让人们把事情交给别人。
That doesn’t mean that you’re creating cadres of individuals who are look-alikes and who are driving down their own price.
这并不意味着你要培养一些相似的人来压低自己的价格。
Flexibility isn’t that difficult to achieve for the individuals who are at that upper end, whose earnings you are going to have to increase even more if they put their foot down and say, “I am not working during my vacation.” You’re going to have to increase their earnings even more.
对于那些处于高端的人来说，实现灵活性并不是那么困难，如果他们坚定地说“我在假期期间不工作”，你的收入将不得不增加更多。你将不得不进一步增加他们的收入。
I don’t think it’s that heavy a lift.
我认为这并没有那么重。
As skill levels rise, doesn’t it get harder to hand things off rather than easier?
随着技能水平的提高，交接事情不是变得更难而不是更容易吗？
In a pharmacy, there’s skill required, but it’s not extreme.
在药房，需要一定的技能，但并不极端。
Well, that’s what you think.
好吧，这就是你的想法。
COWEN: Substitute in another economist for an hour of your time — that’s very hard to do.
COWEN：用另一位经济学家代替你一个小时的时间 ——这是很难做到的。
I don’t think so.
我不这么认为。
I know one.
我知道一个。
I live with one who I use as my substitute.
我和我的一个替代者住在一起。
COWEN: Well, one, right?
COWEN：嗯，一个，对吗？
A coworker.
一个同事。
First of all, I don’t think it’s in the training as much as it is in — and I think most people in the business would agree with me that, yes, there’s a lot of training for many different fields — accountants, lawyers, consultants — but most of the problem that they would claim there is, is in the handing off of information, in the passing off of information with high levels of fidelity and with trust.
首先，我不认为培训中的问题比培训中的问题多——我认为业内的大多数人都会同意我的观点，是的，针对许多不同领域有很多培训——会计师、律师、顾问——但他们声称存在的大部分问题在于信息的传递，以高保真度和信任的方式传递信息。
I think that one of the things that the Zoom world has done is it’s led me to trust you even though I can’t touch you.
我认为 Zoom 世界所做的一件事就是它让我信任你，尽管我无法触碰你。
Do you think there are scenarios where marriage makes a meaningful comeback for lower socioeconomic groups?
您认为婚姻是否会在某些情况下为社会经济地位较低的群体带来有意义的回归？
And what might those scenarios look like?
这些场景会是什么样子？
Well, as someone who got married five years ago after living with someone for 26 years, I would have to get out of my own life into someone else’s.
好吧，作为一个五年前结婚、与某人同居了 26 年的人，我必须离开自己的生活，进入别人的生活。
But I think that for many people, marriage creates more stability, either because they’ve made a commitment to themselves or those around them see them as more committed.
但我认为，对于很多人来说，婚姻创造了更多的稳定性，要么是因为他们对自己做出了承诺，要么是因为周围的人认为他们更加忠诚。
I think the main benefit is to children, so that children have more stability.
我觉得主要是对孩子的好处，让孩子有更多的稳定性。
Sure, but for people without a college degree, marriage rates have fallen dramatically in the United States —
当然，但对于没有大学学位的人来说，美国的结婚率急剧下降——
Dramatically.
戏剧性地。
— and a rise in single-parent families.
——以及单亲家庭的增加。
Can you see economic forces that might reverse that?
你能看到可能扭转这一局面的经济力量吗？
Or is that just going to keep on going?
或者这种情况会继续下去吗？
I don’t know if it’s going to keep on going.
我不知道它是否会继续下去。
There was a really great piece in The Times the other day about mainly women with less than a college degree who said, “I don’t want to get married or have kids right now.
前几天，《泰晤士报》上有一篇非常精彩的文章，主要是关于大学学历以下的女性，她们说：“我现在不想结婚或生孩子。
I want a career.
我想要一份事业。
I want to be financially independent.” I don’t know whether that means that they are eschewing marriage altogether and that, in fact, we have a new group of women who, even though they don’t have higher degrees, are wonderfully financially independent and can raise children in good environments.
我想要经济独立。”我不知道这是否意味着她们完全回避婚姻，事实上，我们有一群新的女性，尽管她们没有更高的学位，但在经济上非常独立，可以在良好的环境中抚养孩子。
Obviously, the big issue — and this is the one I think is in the back of this question — is what’s happening to the men.
显然，最大的问题——我认为这个问题背后的问题是男性身上发生的事情。
If we can lift the economic opportunities of men who don’t have college degrees, then some of the problem, I think, will be solved.
如果我们能够提高没有大学学位的男性的经济机会，那么我认为一些问题就会得到解决。
But that’s a big problem.
但这是一个大问题。
How do men and women respond differently to narrow financial incentives in the workplace?
男性和女性对工作场所狭隘的经济激励有何不同反应？
Or is it just the same?
或者只是一样？
To narrow, meaning they —
缩小范围，意思是它们 ——
If you give people bonuses, do they work harder, would be one of many questions.
如果你给人们奖金，他们会更加努力地工作，这将是众多问题之一。
Do men and women respond the same to that or differently?
男性和女性对此的反应相同还是不同？
I really don’t know.
我真的不知道。
It’s a very, very good question.
这是一个非常非常好的问题。
Did they respond in terms of working harder?
他们的反应是更加努力地工作吗？
That’s a good question to ask some consultant.
这是一个向顾问询问的好问题。
I’m trying to think about whether .
我正在尝试思考是否。
.
。
.
。
I think my answer would be that they both would respond the same, but that women have greater constraints who are parents.
我想我的答案是，他们都会做出同样的反应，但女性作为父母受到更大的限制。
I can be in a law firm and have phenomenal incentives.
我可以在一家律师事务所工作并拥有惊人的激励。
I can be in an accounting firm with phenomenal incentives.
我可以在一家拥有惊人激励的会计师事务所工作。
We know what those types of bonuses look like.
我们知道这些类型的奖金是什么样的。
But if a parent says, “I cannot work Thursday mornings,” and therefore gives up that benefit, that isn’t because she’s a bad worker and she’s not responding to the benefit.
但如果父母说，“我周四早上不能工作”，因此放弃了这项福利，这并不是因为她工作不好，也不是因为她没有对这项福利做出反应。
It’s that her needs are inconsistent with the firm’s demands.
而是她的需求与公司的要求不一致。
My intuition would be that whether women work at all depends more on incentives, but how much they work at the margin — if they work — depends less on incentives.
我的直觉是，女性是否工作更多地取决于激励措施，但她们的边际工作量————如果她们工作————则不太依赖于激励措施。
That’s a good point, but of course, that initial margin is the bigger margin than the one that gets you into the workplace —
这是一个很好的观点，但是当然，初始利润比让你进入工作场所的利润更大 ——
Oh, sure.
哦，当然。
— and so then you have the issue of selectivity.
- 那么你就会遇到选择性问题。
The women who are in the workplace and in certain types of workplaces are going to be selected either on the basis of personal characteristics or the characteristics of their spouses.
工作场所和某些类型工作场所的女性将根据个人特征或其配偶的特征进行选择。
Why does the wage gap flip for Black women versus Black men?
为什么黑人女性与黑人男性的工资差距会发生逆转？
These are great questions.
这些都是很好的问题。
These remind me of questions that you might get in some generals exam, and then you think, “What does the wage gap flip?”
这些让我想起你在一些将军考试中可能会遇到的问题，然后你会想，“工资差距会发生什么变化？”
The Black male wage gap is a very difficult statistic because it’s a highly selected statistic.
黑人男性工资差距是一个非常困难的统计数据，因为它是一个经过精心挑选的统计数据。
As we know from lots of very good work, if we take the population, the entire population will get one number.
正如我们从许多非常好的工作中知道的那样，如果我们计算人口，则整个人口都会得到一个数字。
If we take the population that’s not incarcerated, we’ll get another number.
如果我们考虑没有被监禁的人口，我们会得到另一个数字。
If we take the population that’s never been incarcerated, we’ll get another number.
如果我们计算从未被监禁过的人口，我们会得到另一个数字。
I think that deep in that calculation are some of the nation’s largest ills.
我认为这个计算的深处是这个国家一些最大的弊病。
When I read noneconomists on wage gaps, I see the word intersectionality very often — the notion that there’s some nonlinear effect created by combining different types of discrimination.
当我阅读非经济学家关于工资差距的文章时，我经常看到交叉性这个词——即不同类型的歧视结合起来会产生一些非线性效应的概念。
What is your take on intersectionality?
您对交叉性有何看法？
Does it play a role in your argument?
它在你的论点中起作用吗？
I would like to take a small course on intersectionality because I’m not certain — if I model this as a theorist — where the sections are going to be and how I figure out how many sections I want.
我想上一门关于交叉性的小课程，因为我不确定 —— 如果我将其建模为理论家 —— 各个部分将在哪里以及我如何计算出我想要多少个部分。
Someone has a gender at birth, they have a decided gender perhaps, they have a race, they have where they grew up.
有人出生时就有性别，也许他们有确定的性别，他们有种族，他们有他们长大的地方。
Many of these have a religion.
其中许多人都有宗教信仰。
They have the education of their parents, and many of these covary — they’re correlated.
他们接受了父母的教育，而且其中许多协变——他们是相关的。
In fact, this would be a great PhD thesis, and for all I know, someone would tell me, sure, when Rosen wrote it 40 years ago, or maybe Eddie Lazear.
事实上，这将是一篇很棒的博士论文，据我所知，肯定有人会告诉我，罗森或埃迪·拉泽尔在 40 年前写下它。
I don’t know, quite frankly, what to do with intersectionality.
坦率地说，我不知道如何处理交叉性。
What do you think of this as a simple model?
您认为这个简单的模型怎么样？
We all know the standard economic model — there can be too many tolls on the medieval river, right?
我们都知道标准的经济模型——“中世纪河流上的通行费可能太多了，对吗？”
It’s double marginalization.
这是双重边缘化。
That can be a nonlinear impact — too many tolls, the river is just unusable.
这可能是一种非线性影响——“通行费太多，河流根本无法使用。”
There are negative externalities, one predator on another.
存在负外部性，一个掠夺者对另一个掠夺者。
Think of discrimination as a kind of tax, which it is, and then you have multiple taxes from different directions, and they interact like the tolls on the river, and maybe intersectionality makes a lot of sense, no?
将歧视视为一种税收，事实确实如此，然后你有来自不同方向的多种税收，它们像过河费一样相互作用，也许交叉性很有意义，不是吗？
Yes, I think that that’s a very, very good way of thinking about it.
是的，我认为这是一种非常非常好的思考方式。
Thank you for giving me a little bit of theory to hang my hat on.
感谢您为我提供了一些理论知识。
But the problem is whether these are multiplicative, whether they’re less than that, if there really is some issue having to do with functional form, and I don’t know whether they are separable.
但问题是它们是否是乘法，是否小于乘法，是否确实存在与函数形式有关的问题，而且我不知道它们是否可分离。
The way in which you said it, they would be separable.
按照你所说的方式，它们是可以分开的。
Thank you for the idea.
谢谢你的主意。
I will pass it on to one of my really good graduate students to model and then test.
我会将其传递给我的一位非常优秀的研究生进行建模，然后进行测试。
That’s a very, very good point.
这是一个非常非常好的观点。
Another question.
另一个问题。
Another PhD dissertation coming from Tyler.
泰勒的另一篇博士论文。
Well, that’s what we’re here for.
嗯，这就是我们来这里的目的。
That’s what we should call this: PhD dissertations coming from Tyler.
这就是我们应该称之为的：来自泰勒的博士论文。
COWEN: When I speak with high-achieving women I know, they tell me something frequently, more or less the same — that there’s a fear of sexual harassment, and this leads women to choose more careers where they don’t put themselves out there so much, and as a result will earn less, or quite likely they’ll be less famous, suffer other penalties, and that this is a major factor in career choice and earnings.
考恩：当我与我认识的成就卓著的女性交谈时，她们经常告诉我一些或多或少相同的事情——人们担心性骚扰，这导致女性选择更多不那么投入自己的职业，结果收入会减少，或者很可能她们的名气会降低，遭受其他惩罚，这是职业选择和收入的一个主要因素。
What’s your take on that?
您对此有何看法？
Well, I think it can be.
嗯，我认为可以。
I in no way, shape, or form want to minimize that.
我决不想以任何方式、形状或形式来最小化这一点。
My sense is that gender differences in earnings are not, in the majority, due to factors like that.
我的感觉是，大多数情况下，收入的性别差异并不是由此类因素造成的。
However, those factors we really want to root out.
然而，我们确实想根除这些因素。
There’s obviously a difference between dating and romance, and sexual predators and sexual harassment.
约会和浪漫、性掠夺者和性骚扰之间显然是有区别的。
The fact that we have many so front-page cases about sexual harassment — both heterosexual and homosexual harassment — shows that it exists, and it should be rooted out.
事实上，我们有很多关于性骚扰的头版案例——“异性性骚扰和同性恋骚扰”——这表明性骚扰确实存在，而且应该被根除。
How much it is affecting the choices that women make and men make, I think, is not that gigantic.
我认为，它对女性和男性做出的选择的影响并没有那么大。
If we’re trying to explain gender pay gaps or inequities, and we think there are at least two factors — one is, for a given job, women might be paid less, right?
如果我们试图解释性别工资差距或不平等，我们认为至少有两个因素 ——一个是，对于特定的工作，女性的工资可能会较低，对吗？
Yes.
是的。
Another factor is that women may end up in jobs or in majors or with interests that pay less in the longer run.
另一个因素是，从长远来看，女性可能会从事报酬较低的工作、专业或兴趣爱好。
How do you assess the relative proportion of those two factors?
您如何评估这两个因素的相对比例？
Well, we do all sorts of calculations to try to figure out what’s happening within versus between.
好吧，我们进行各种计算，试图找出内部和之间发生的情况。
Of course, one of the problems that we always face is the issue of aggregation.
当然，我们始终面临的问题之一就是聚合问题。
The more you disaggregate occupations or firm occupation, the more you’re going to minimize the problems that are happening within.
你对职业或公司职业的分类越多，你就越能最大限度地减少内部发生的问题。
It’s my sense, from the work that I’ve done, that the issue of occupational segregation, for example, has been vastly reduced over time.
从我所做的工作来看，我的感觉是，职业隔离等问题随着时间的推移已经大大减少。
What’s happening within occupations?
职业中发生了什么？
The real challenge there is to understand whether individuals are being paid less for absolutely equivalent work within the same firm — and that is the standard federal guideline that one is looking for, that’s the smoking gun — or whether individuals are getting paid less, for example, because they’re working at the boutique law firm where they have amenities that they want, or whether they’re working at the Madison Avenue, Park Avenue law firm where they have fewer flexible amenities.
真正的挑战是了解个人在同一家公司内从事绝对同等工作的报酬是否较低——这就是人们正在寻找的标准联邦指导方针，这是确凿的证据——或者个人的报酬是否较低，例如，因为他们在精品律师事务所工作，那里有他们想要的设施，或者他们是否在麦迪逊大道、公园大道律师事务所工作，那里的灵活设施较少。
I think that those are the challenges and the data challenges that we all have.
我认为这些是我们都面临的挑战和数据挑战。
As you may know, there’s a debate in experimental economics and also field experimental economics as to whether women are more averse to competition than men.
如您所知，实验经济学和实验经济学领域都存在关于女性是否比男性更厌恶竞争的争论。
One doesn’t have to think this is intrinsic; it could itself be the result of discrimination.
人们不必认为这是内在的；它本身可能是歧视的结果。
But what’s your view there?
但你对此有何看法？
I know all the experiments, and they’re done by extraordinary scholars.
我知道所有的实验，而且它们都是由杰出的学者完成的。
I myself have no idea how to do experimental economics because you could do just about anything, and you just have to be incredibly clever at designing these experiments.
我本人不知道如何进行实验经济学，因为你几乎可以做任何事情，而且你只需要在设计这些实验时非常聪明。
I know that there’s lots of evidence that women take fewer risks.
我知道有大量证据表明女性承担的风险较少。
They are less pushy.
他们不那么咄咄逼人。
They are more insecure, or at least we think that they are more insecure.
他们更加没有安全感，或者至少我们认为他们更加没有安全感。
There are very, very interesting experiments on stockbrokers, but of course, there’s the flip side that individuals who are highly risk-taking often lose a lot.
对股票经纪人进行了非常非常有趣的实验，但当然，也有另一面，那些高度冒险的人往往会损失很多。
I think that, more and more, as women are educated at lower levels to realize that they can be anything that they want to be .
我认为，随着女性接受较低水平的教育，她们越来越意识到她们可以成为任何她们想成为的人。
.
。
.
。
If we look at younger women versus older women, I think that we do see that women are more competitive now than they certainly were when I was a kid.
如果我们比较年轻女性和年长女性，我认为我们确实发现现在的女性比我小时候更具竞争力。
It’s interesting that there is the great book Women Don’t Ask, by Linda Babcock and Laschever.
有趣的是，有一本很棒的书《女人不要问》，作者是琳达·巴布科克 (Linda Babcock) 和拉斯切弗 (Laschever)。
I remember when that first came out, and I said, “How can you say women don’t ask?
我记得当这句话第一次出现时，我说：“你怎么能说女人不问呢？
Go to any department store and see who’s standing there screaming about the fact that the toaster doesn’t work.” COWEN: As you know, if we look at undergraduate majors, the ratio — it’s like 3:1, men to women, right?
去任何一家百货公司，看看谁站在那里尖叫着烤面包机坏了。” COWEN：如你所知，如果我们看看本科专业，男女比例大约是 3:1，对吗？
It’s not obvious that it’s budging.
它正在发生变化并不明显。
If we look at faculty, I read one estimate that the ratio for women hasn’t really improved since the 1990s.
如果我们看看教师队伍，我读到一项估计，自 20 世纪 90 年代以来，女性的比例并没有真正改善。
The ratio — you’re saying in economics or in what?
这个比率 — 你说的是经济学还是什么？
The gender ratio.
性别比例。
I’m not sure what level they were counting or adjuncts included, but it wasn’t obvious —
我不确定他们计算的是哪个级别或包含哪些附加内容，但这并不明显 -
You’re saying 3:1 for a particular major?
你是说某个专业是 3:1 吗？
For economics majors.
对于经济学专业。
Oh, okay.
哦好的。
I believe the ratio’s 3:1 and not really budging.
我相信这个比例是 3:1，而且没有太大变化。
Well, I put those numbers together.
好吧，我把这些数字放在一起。
Okay, and how is it evolving?
好的，它是如何演变的？
It was more like 4:1 than 3:1, now about 2:1, so it has increased by quite a lot.
以前的比例更像是4:1，而不是3:1，现在大约是2:1，所以增加了很多。
One of the problems that we have, as a field, is that when students — before they even come into their freshman year, and they’re asked what do they want to major in, women will — if they want to major in the social sciences — will put down psychology, and men will put down economics, so we lose them before they even unpack their suitcases.
作为一个领域，我们面临的问题之一是，当学生——“在进入大一之前，当他们被问到想主修什么专业时，女性————如果她们想主修社会科学”——会放下心理学，而男性会放下经济学，所以我们甚至在他们打开行李箱之前就失去了他们。
I ran an RCT I called Undergraduate Women in Economics Challenge.
我开展了一项名为“本科生女性经济学挑战赛”的随机对照试验。
We had 20 universities and liberal arts colleges begin a program for freshmen to explain to them that economics is not just about the things that their parents have told them about, which they find boring, which don’t involve people, but economics is a very people-oriented subject.
我们有20所大学和文理学院为新生开展了一个项目，向他们解释经济学不仅仅是父母告诉他们的、他们觉得无聊、不涉及人的东西，而是一门非常以人为本的学科。
It involves inequality, it involves children, it involves obesity, it involves health, it involves everything.
它涉及不平等，涉及儿童，涉及肥胖，涉及健康，涉及一切。
We moved the needle a bit.
我们稍微移动了一下针。
We’re still trying to figure out exactly how much we moved the needle.
我们仍在试图弄清楚我们到底移动了多少指针。
But the problem is, we do very, very poorly in our PR ourselves.
但问题是，我们自己的公关做得非常非常差。
So if you read the textbooks — and they are changing, and there are a number of recent textbooks that understood these problems — that economics is X and Y; it’s agents.
因此，如果你阅读教科书 — 它们正在发生变化，并且最近有许多教科书理解了这些问题 — 经济学是X和Y；这是代理人。
Most young people don’t want to deal with agents.
大多数年轻人不想与经纪人打交道。
They want to deal with humans, and particularly, it seems as if women, more than men, would like to deal with humans.
他们想要与人类打交道，尤其是女性似乎比男性更愿意与人类打交道。
And so women will tend to go into this field called psychology or sociology, which indicates in their writings that it’s about people.
因此，女性会倾向于进入心理学或社会学这个领域，这在她们的著作中表明这是关于人的。
We indicate in our writings that it is about agents or Greek letters, and so we just have to do a lot better.
我们在著作中指出，这是关于代理人或希腊字母，因此我们必须做得更好。
How is the gender ratio for tenured economics professors evolving?
经济学终身教授的性别比例如何变化？
CSWEP, that is, the American Economic Association Committee on the Status of Women in the Economics Profession, puts together those data, and they are creeping upward, as one would think they would.
CSWEP，即美国经济协会经济专业女性地位委员会，将这些数据汇总起来，发现这些数据正在缓慢上升，正如人们所认为的那样。
Now, in some very interesting work, we can see that they are — I said the words “creeping up.” They’re not bounding up.
现在，在一些非常有趣的工作中，我们可以看到它们是 —— 我说了“爬行”这个词。他们没有跳起来。
The reason that they’re not bounding up at first we thought was a pipeline issue, but now it’s pretty clear that it’s less the pipeline issue.
起初我们认为它们没有绑定的原因是管道问题，但现在很明显，这不是管道问题。
While it was there and still is there, there’s also an issue with the fact that women — more than men — will leave academia and use their economic skills extremely well but outside the tenure track.
尽管过去和现在仍然存在，但事实上女性——“比男性更多”——将离开学术界并极其出色地运用她们的经济技能，但在终身教职之外，这一事实也存在一个问题。
Should we either abolish tenure or fundamentally change it so as not to penalize women, but also for other reasons?
我们应该废除保有权还是从根本上改变它，以便不惩罚女性，但也出于其他原因？
It seems grossly unfair.
这似乎非常不公平。
Yes, I certainly wouldn’t do it because it’s a penalty for one group or another.
是的，我当然不会这样做，因为这对某一组或另一组来说是一种惩罚。
It is an issue that arose.
这是一个出现的问题。
It solved potentially an issue from some time ago.
它解决了不久前的一个潜在问题。
I don’t know if the fundamentals are the same that would support it.
我不知道支持它的基本原理是否相同。
It is clearly a difficult problem in the sense that individuals have higher productivity when they’re young and then lower productivity.
这显然是一个难题，因为个人在年轻时生产力较高，然后生产力较低。
I think that having long-term contracts is useful for individuals in fields where they’re so good.
我认为长期合同对于那些在自己擅长的领域的个人来说很有用。
If we think about sports, clearly those people just clean up at the beginning, and then they become used-car salesmen or whatever they become.
如果我们考虑体育运动，显然这些人一开始只是清理干净，然后他们就成为二手车推销员或其他什么人。
So the question is, do we have a completely changed academic environment in which the superstars clean up at some point and then they go into something else?
所以问题是，我们是否有一个完全改变的学术环境，超级明星在某个时候清理干净，然后进入其他领域？
I don’t think that that would work either.
我认为这也行不通。
I think that a very important thing to think about is that we produce a large number of products.
我认为需要考虑的一个非常重要的事情是我们生产大量的产品。
We produce knowledge, and that’s really the hardest thing to figure out how to do, but we produce the dissemination of knowledge and teaching.
我们生产知识，这确实是最难弄清楚如何做的事情，但我们生产知识和教学的传播。
And people who are older probably do that better, and that is not generally what tenure is given for.
年长的人可能会做得更好，而这通常不是授予终身职位的目的。
I’m sure you know the Stevenson and Wolfers paper, 2009.
我相信您知道 Stevenson 和 Wolfers 2009 年的论文。
Why haven’t American women gained more in happiness?
为什么美国女性没有获得更多的幸福感？
See, I’m not a great fan of that.
看，我不太喜欢这个。
I remember Betsey was interviewed on Mother’s Day one year.
我记得贝西在一年的母亲节接受了采访。
She was a new mother.
她是一位新妈妈。
The person interviewing her said, “Your work shows that mothers are less happy than they had been before they became mothers.” The person said, “That was a great question for Mother’s Day.” Betsey was stuck, and she said, “Well, yes, but they would never give up their baby.” I think that for me, as an economist, that says it all.
采访她的人说：“你的工作表明，母亲们比成为母亲之前更不快乐了。”该人士表示：“对于母亲节来说，这是一个很好的问题。”贝西被困住了，她说：“嗯，是的，但他们永远不会放弃他们的孩子。”我认为对于我来说，作为一名经济学家，这说明了一切。
There’s some problem.
有问题。
So, you think it’s not true that American women are less happy than they had been?
那么，你认为美国女性不如以前那么幸福是不是真的？
I’m not sure what your stance is.
我不确定你的立场是什么。
My stance is that I’m not happy with the happiness measures.
我的立场是我对幸福衡量标准并不满意。
Do you think there’s something else they’re not picking up?
你认为还有什么他们没有注意到的吗？
Yes.
是的。
That’s an ordinal-choice thing rather than stress in the moment?
这是一个顺序选择的事情，而不是当下的压力？
Yes.
是的。
And that if people are choosing something out of a greater set of opportunities, they probably are happier?
如果人们从更多的机会中选择某些东西，他们可能会更快乐？
That’s right.
这是正确的。
It’s very hard to do that in general.
一般来说很难做到这一点。
Sometimes we rile up a group and get them to remember the things that they’re less happy about, and sometimes we show them where their lives are safe and secure and wonderful and plentiful, and then they get happier.
有时我们激怒一群人，让他们记住那些让他们不高兴的事情，有时我们向他们展示他们的生活在哪里是安全、有保障、美好和丰富的，然后他们就会变得更快乐。
I remember when Dick Easterlin first began the happiness literature.
我记得迪克·伊斯特林第一次开始创作幸福文学时。
I remember very, very well — it was a very long time ago — having dinner with him in Madison, Wisconsin, and talking about it.
我记得非常非常清楚——那是很久以前的事了——在威斯康星州麦迪逊与他共进晚餐，并谈论了这件事。
I was enthralled with trying to understand this happiness literature.
我着迷于试图理解这种幸福文学。
That was across countries, and it seemed interesting, from my Chicago theory point of view, that people recenter their happiness.
这是跨国家的，从我的芝加哥理论的角度来看，人们会重新审视他们的幸福感，这似乎很有趣。
You can be in a place in which, if you were plunked down there from somewhere else, you’d be miserable, and yet, you’re there, and you recalibrate yourself, just like people recalibrate themselves when they have a bad health event.
你可能身处一个地方，如果你从其他地方掉到那里，你会很痛苦，但你在那里，你重新调整自己，就像人们在健康状况不佳时重新调整自己一样。
It takes a while.
这需要一段时间。
I’m not certain what to do with the happiness literature.
我不知道如何处理幸福文学。
What best correlates with women keeping their maiden name after marriage?
与女性婚后保留婚前姓氏最相关的是什么？
You’ve written on this.
你已经写过这个了。
Right.
正确的。
For the period in which it increased enormously, which was in the early ’70s, there were several things that were important.
在 20 世纪 70 年代初这一数字大幅增长的时期，有几件事非常重要。
The first one was that they were given an appellation.
第一个是他们被赋予了一个称号。
Rather than being called Miss or Mrs., they could be called Ms. It just opened the spigot.
与其称呼她们为“小姐”或“夫人”，不如称呼她们为“女士”。这只是打开了龙头而已。
It just meant that more and more women could do it.
这只是意味着越来越多的女性可以做到这一点。
But more importantly — and this gets to the title of the article that I wrote with one of my undergraduates — it was that they already made a name.
但更重要的是——这就是我和我的一个本科生写的文章的标题——他们已经出名了。
If you publish, or you’re a lawyer or a doctor or a yoga instructor or a hairdresser, and you are known as Tallulah Bankhead — to pick a great name — it’s going to be hard to change it.
如果你发表文章，或者你是一名律师、医生、瑜伽教练或美发师，并且你被称为“塔卢拉·班克黑德”（Tallulah Bankhead）——“选择一个好名字”——那么就很难改变它。
It became your identity.
它成为了你的身份。
It became your calling card.
它成了你的名片。
Then the question is, okay, fine, keep your name, but then there were some barriers to that.
那么问题是，好吧，好吧，保留你的名字，但是这存在一些障碍。
The barriers then began to be taken down.
然后障碍开始被拆除。
There were institutional barriers.
存在体制障碍。
There were legal barriers in terms of having to change your name with the Social Security system, on your passport, on your driver’s license.
必须在社会保障系统、护照和驾照上更改姓名都存在法律障碍。
There were retrograde states that weren’t letting women who got married not change their names.
有些倒退的州不允许结婚的女性不改名字。
I remember I was at Princeton at the time, and I was married to a Princeton professor.
我记得当时我在普林斯顿大学，我嫁给了普林斯顿大学的一位教授。
I was no longer a professor for Princeton, and the library insisted that I use his name on my card despite the fact that I had been an assistant professor there with my name.
我不再是普林斯顿大学的教授，图书馆坚持要求我在名片上使用他的名字，尽管我曾是那里的助理教授。
That was one of the greatest affronts.
这是最大的侮辱之一。
All of that disappeared.
这一切都消失了。
That became, once again, a great enabler.
这再次成为一个伟大的推动者。
Then finally, it’s what to do when your kids are in school, and you have a different name.
最后，当你的孩子在学校并且你有不同的名字时该怎么办。
It’s very easy when the plumber comes to the door, to tell the plumber, “I am not Mrs. Katz,” but it would be much harder.
当水管工来到门口时，告诉水管工“我不是卡茨夫人”是很容易的，但要困难得多。
It’s often hard still, unfortunately, to pick your kid up at school when you have a different last name than they.
不幸的是，当你的姓氏与孩子不同时，去学校接孩子通常仍然很困难。
Why is the title Ms. more or less disappeared from the scene?
为什么女士这个称号或多或少地从舞台上消失了呢？
I don’t think it has.
我认为没有。
Where has it?
哪里有呢？
I heard it a great deal in the 1980s.
我在 20 世纪 80 年代经常听到这种说法。
It feels today that I hardly ever hear it.
今天感觉我几乎听不到了。
I also hear Mr. less often, to be clear, but Ms. seems to have vanished, viewed as almost condescending.
需要明确的是，我也很少听到先生的声音，但女士似乎已经消失了，被认为几乎是居高临下的。
I don’t know, I’m asking.
我不知道，我就问一下。
I genuinely don’t know.
我真的不知道。
Tyler, what do you hear?
泰勒，你听到什么？
People avoiding the designation altogether.
人们完全回避这个称号。
But on forms, the list of potential appellations will always include Ms. I think that one reason that it may disappear — and I think that it’s nice if we actually get to know our first names — is that, particularly in certain communities, there may be a sense that you don’t want to use any indication of gender.
但在表格上，潜在的称谓列表将始终包括“女士”。我认为它可能消失的一个原因是，特别是在某些社区，可能会有一种感觉，即您不想使用任何性别指示。
That gender has become a no-no.
这种性别已经成为禁忌。
I’m on a national committee in which we’re very used to talking about two genders.
我是一个国家委员会的成员，我们非常习惯于在其中讨论两种性别。
We have two genders, X races, Y ethnicities.
我们有两种性别，X 种族，Y 种族。
You multiply them together, and you get the number of cells.
将它们相乘，就得到了细胞的数量。
And now we’re into more genders, so I think that may be one of the reasons.
现在我们的性别越来越多，所以我认为这可能是原因之一。
How much do you think the trans movement will, in fact, disrupt feminism by breaking down the two traditional categories, men and women?
您认为跨性别运动实际上会通过打破男性和女性这两个传统类别来扰乱女权主义吗？
If someone wants to say, “The ratio of men to women in this area is that,” the trans movement could say, “We can’t quite presume that,” and blur the entire comparison.
如果有人想说，“这个地区的男女比例是这样的”，跨性别运动可以说，“我们不能完全假设这一点”，从而模糊了整个比较。
Is that going to matter moving forward?
这对未来有影响吗？
Or is that temporary?
或者那是暂时的？
I don’t know.
我不知道。
I don’t think any of this is temporary.
我认为这一切都不是暂时的。
If anything, I would applaud the fact that we are smoothing over gender and moving .
如果有什么不同的话，我会赞扬我们正在平滑性别和移动这一事实。
.
。
.
。
I would think that in the greater scheme of things, that is a move towards greater equality in the sense that individuals — there is fluidity in who they are.
我认为，从更大的角度来看，这是迈向更大平等的一步，因为个体的身份具有流动性。
I’m not quite certain what to do with it, but I applaud it.
我不太确定该怎么处理它，但我赞赏它。
When you read The New York Times wedding announcement page, what honestly do you think?
当您阅读《纽约时报》的婚礼公告页面时，您的真实想法是什么？
I tend to think two things: “My goodness, these elites are remarkably creative and self-replicating,” and then it strikes me how much people who are not religious at critical points in their lives actually want to invoke religion for the ceremony, but then it’s often just discarded again.
我倾向于思考两件事：“我的天哪，这些精英非常有创造力和自我复制能力”，然后我突然想到，那些在人生关键时刻不信教的人实际上是多么想在仪式上援引宗教，但随后它往往又被抛弃了。
That’s what I actually think when I read that page.
这就是我读到那一页时的真实想法。
What do you actually think?
你到底怎么想？
The first thing is that I’ve been reading that page for a very, very long time.
首先，我已经阅读该页面非常非常长的时间了。
For those viewers who don’t know, when I did the piece on name changes, one of the datasets that we used was The New York Times Style section, now called Vows.
对于那些不知道的观众，当我做关于名称更改的文章时，我们使用的数据集之一是《纽约时报风格》部分，现在称为 Vows。
It would list whether the bride was or was not changing her name.
它将列出新娘是否更改了她的名字。
We used that as a dataset.
我们用它作为数据集。
To be perfectly frank, The New York Times, in their own mysterious ways, has changed that page to be some very — I shouldn’t say very, but relative to what it was — non-elite.
坦率地说，《纽约时报》以他们自己神秘的方式，将该版面改得非常 —— 我不应该说非常，但相对于它本来的样子 —— 非精英。
Is single-sex education for women underrated or overrated?
针对女性的单性别教育是被低估还是被高估了？
What do you think of it?
你觉得怎么样？
I have a personal stance that it’s highly overrated, but I wouldn’t want to get into an argument with my friend, colleague, a person I have enormous admiration for, Amy Finkelstein, who believes thoroughly in it.
我个人的立场是，它被高度高估了，但我不想与我的朋友、同事、我非常钦佩的艾米·芬克尔斯坦（Amy Finkelstein）发生争论，她完全相信它。
When I was a kid growing up in the Bronx, I couldn’t imagine a world that I wanted to be in that didn’t have boys.
当我还是个在布朗克斯长大的孩子时，我无法想象我想要的世界是一个没有男孩的世界。
At the time, girls were, I think, far less assertive, far less serious.
我认为，当时的女孩远没有那么自信，也远没有那么严肃。
I had girlfriends, but I enjoyed being around the boys a lot more.
我有女朋友，但我更喜欢和男孩们在一起。
I went to Bronx Science, which was about two-thirds boys.
我去了布朗克斯科学学院，那里大约有三分之二是男生。
When I applied to college, I just could not imagine going to an all-girls school.
当我申请大学时，我无法想象去一所女子学校。
Now I know the arguments in reverse, and I respect them, but it was certainly not for me.
现在我知道了相反的论点，并且我尊重它们，但这肯定不适合我。
On for-profit and non-for-profit education
论营利性和非营利性教育
Why does for-profit education seem to fail so badly?
为什么营利性教育似乎失败得如此严重？
Some parts of the learning sector are for-profit.
学习部门的某些部分是营利性的。
Your books are put out by for-profit publishers, textbooks are.
你的书是由营利性出版商出版的，教科书也是如此。
Berlitz seems to do okay relative to the language classes at your local state college, but for-profit education, as a whole, seems to implode.
相对于当地州立大学的语言课程，贝立兹似乎表现还不错，但整体而言，营利性教育似乎正在崩溃。
What’s the model there?
那里的型号是什么？
I think it’s some for-profit education.
我认为这是一些营利性教育。
It’s certainly not all for-profit education.
这当然不全是营利性教育。
I think that the problem is that the part of for-profit education that expanded the greatest was for BAs, particularly in fields like business administration management, and they became more BA mills.
我认为问题在于，营利性教育中扩张最大的部分是针对学士学位的，特别是在工商管理等领域，而它们变成了更多的学士学位工厂。
When I was studying for-profit education, I really wanted to be able to look at the materials that were given to people.
当我学习营利性教育时，我真的很想能够看到提供给人们的材料。
What were they studying?
他们在学习什么？
I was never able to break into that.
我始终无法闯入这一点。
The problem is twofold.
问题是双重的。
One is that there’s a huge profit incentive for the company.
一是公司有巨大的利润激励。
That’s, of course, not always a problem, as we know.
当然，据我们所知，这并不总是一个问题。
The other one is, the individuals are not as aware as they should be of what they’re getting themselves into.
另一个是，人们并没有充分意识到自己正在陷入的困境。
They are often very needy.
他们常常非常需要帮助。
They’re low-income.
他们是低收入者。
They’re first-generation college.
他们是第一代大学。
Someone is dangling in front of them something that they really want.
有人在他们面前晃来晃去，他们真正想要的东西。
They desperately want something that’s going to get them out of the hole that life has put them in.
他们迫切希望有一些东西可以让他们摆脱生活给他们带来的困境。
That person who’s dangling it is not giving them sufficient information and sufficient amount of time to get out of this contract.
那个悬而未决的人没有给他们足够的信息和足够的时间来摆脱这份合同。
I think we saw that very, very clearly in the GAO audit studies of the for-profits.
我认为我们在政府问责局对营利组织的审计研究中非常非常清楚地看到了这一点。
I think that that’s the problem.
我认为这就是问题所在。
The for-profits that give short courses that give a one-year certification in, let’s say, medical technicians — what we’ve shown in our work, those are not the big problem.
营利性组织提供短期课程，提供为期一年的医疗技术人员认证——正如我们在工作中所展示的那样，这些并不是大问题。
The big problem is what I just said.
最大的问题就是我刚才说的。
Let me just say that I have taken short for-profit courses on dog training, and they work really well.
我只想说，我参加过关于狗训练的短期营利性课程，而且效果非常好。
For nonprofits, I’ve seen estimates that maybe no more than 40 percent of the people who try, finish.
对于非营利组织，据我估计，尝试完成的人中可能不超过 40%。
Does that just mean we have too many people trying to attend college?
这是否意味着我们有太多人想要上大学？
Isn’t the true rate of return on education actually pretty low, at the median at least?
教育的真实回报率实际上不是相当低，至少是中位数吗？
Let me back up and say that when we were just talking about for-profit education, that the non-for-profit, the non-selective portion could use a bit of change as well.
让我支持一下，当我们刚刚谈论营利性教育时，非营利性、非选择性部分也可以使用一些改变。
It’s not as if they’re charging as high an amount or recruiting using techniques that are as extreme and exploitative as the for-profits, but they also may not really wake up individuals and tell them exactly what they have to do and how much time they need to spend.
这并不是说他们收取的费用很高，或者使用像营利性组织那样极端和剥削性的技术进行招聘，但他们也可能无法真正唤醒人们并告诉他们到底必须做什么以及需要花多少时间。
We do know, Tyler, there’s incredibly good, really superb research on that marginal student.
泰勒，我们确实知道，关于那个边缘学生的研究非常好、非常出色。
This is Seth Zimmerman’s phenomenal work.
这是塞思·齐默尔曼的非凡作品。
The marginal student does gain a tremendous amount by getting into a good college.
边缘学生通过进入一所好大学确实获得了巨大的收获。
But is that true for the marginal student on the side of the margin where they don’t finish?
但对于那些没有完成学业的边缘学生来说，情况真的如此吗？
Your own work with Katz suggests there’s this discontinuity, some people who simply can’t leap the hurdle into having a college degree.
您自己与卡茨的合作表明存在这种不连续性，有些人根本无法跨越获得大学学位的障碍。
It’s somehow too hard for them temperamentally.
这对他们的性格来说有点太难了。
Possibly.
可能吧。
I’m trying to go back.
我正在努力回去。
We have to go back to Seth’s work to know the point of identification.
我们必须回到赛斯的著作来了解识别的意义。
I thought the point of identification was the individual who was graduating from high school.
我认为识别点是高中毕业的人。
He’s, in fact, including in that the probabilities that they don’t finish, and the rate of return for that person who was able to go to this Florida International was incredibly high.
事实上，他包括了他们没有完成比赛的可能性，以及能够参加佛罗里达国际比赛的人的回报率非常高。
If you look at a school, say, like Duke or Emory, is it a long-run problem that if they admit people on their merits, there’ll be too many women in the school relative to men, and some kind of affirmative action will be needed for the males?
如果你看看像杜克大学或埃默里大学这样的学校，如果他们根据成绩录取学生，那么学校里的女性相对于男性来说会太多，并且需要对男性采取某种平权行动，这是否是一个长期问题？
These are private institutions, and they can generally accept whom they would like to accept for various reasons of diversity.
这些都是私人机构，出于各种多样性原因，他们通常可以接受他们想接受的人。
Should they do that?
他们应该这样做吗？
Or should they just get in 76 percent women, say?
或者说，他们应该只让 76% 的女性参与其中？
I’m brought back to the original issues that were raised by a small number of liberal arts colleges and universities in the ’50s and the ’60s about why they should become coeducational institutions.
我回到了上世纪 50 年代和 60 年代少数文理学院和大学提出的关于为什么它们应该成为男女同校的最初问题。
Those reasons were that their marginal student was not going to Princeton but going to Harvard, not going to Princeton but going to Penn, not going to Princeton but going to Cornell, because that student wanted an education that was more balanced in terms of what the world would look like when they got out.
这些原因是，他们的边缘学生不会去普林斯顿，而是去哈佛，不是去普林斯顿，而是去宾夕法尼亚大学，不是去普林斯顿，而是去康奈尔大学，因为该学生想要一种更加平衡的教育，让他们了解离开后的世界会是什么样子。
And that more balanced, then, was not necessarily Blacks, Hispanics, and Jews, but the one major thing that was missing from Princeton and Yale and Dartmouth and Amherst and Wesleyan and a whole bunch of places was women.
那么，更平衡的不一定是黑人、西班牙裔和犹太人，但普林斯顿、耶鲁、达特茅斯、阿默斯特和卫斯理安以及一大堆地方缺少的一个主要因素是女性。
Those institutions, in a process that I’ve described in the origins of coeducation, led these institutions to move in the direction of accepting more women.
这些机构，在我在男女同校的起源中描述的过程中，引导这些机构朝着接受更多女性的方向发展。
Now what’s going through your mind, I think, is, “Yes, but they weren’t lowering quality.
我想，现在你脑子里想的是，“是的，但他们并没有降低质量。
In fact, they were increasing quality.” Diversity, in any dimension, can be thought of as a plus for everyone.
事实上，他们正在提高质量。”任何方面的多样性都可以被认为对每个人都有好处。
It was about 10 years ago that some dean in a small liberal arts college in the Midwest admitted to the fact that they were accepting men with lower SAT, ACT, and grade point averages to increase diversity.
大约十年前，中西部一所小型文理学院的院长承认，他们正在接受 SAT、ACT 和平均绩点较低的男性，以增加多样性。
Men, probably, are not less intelligent than women, on average.
平均而言，男性的智力可能并不比女性低。
What’s the pipeline problem?
管道有什么问题？
Is it too much homework and too many extracurriculars in high school or something else?
是高中作业太多、课外活动太多还是别的原因？
Where are we failing our young boys?
我们在哪里辜负了我们的年轻男孩？
We can go back to as early as we have data on high schools and know that girls attended high schools, graduated from high schools at far, far greater numbers than boys.
我们可以追溯到高中的数据，知道女孩上高中、从高中毕业的人数远远多于男孩。
If there is an issue here, it’s certainly not extracurriculars.
如果这里有问题，那肯定不是课外活动。
It may have to do with what’s going on in your cells and this difference between this Y and this double X.
这可能与你的细胞中发生的事情以及这个 Y 和这个双 X 之间的差异有关。
The value of an Ivy League degree — what percentage of that value do you think comes from signaling as opposed to learning?
常春藤盟校学位的价值 ——您认为该价值中有多少比例来自信号而不是学习？
Very little.
很少。
I think that it’s not signaling.
我认为这不是信号。
It’s probably networks.
这可能是网络。
Networks.
网络。
Why is there a sheepskin effect, then, which is quite strong?
那么为什么会有如此强烈的羊皮效应呢？
Because you could meet people there for three years and then just not finish.
因为你可能会在那里认识一些人三年，然后就结束了。
I don’t know what the numbers are for the sheepskin effects.
我不知道羊皮效应的数字是多少。
I’m always very dubious of anything having to do with real signaling.
我总是对与真实信号有关的任何事情都非常怀疑。
In terms of sheepskin effects, I’m willing to read up on it, but I don’t know what it is.
就羊皮效应而言，我愿意阅读它，但我不知道它是什么。
The networks are enormously important.
网络非常重要。
Sometimes I look at my undergraduates, and I think, “I would just be such a better person if I could live with these people.
有时我看着我的本科生，我想，“如果我能和这些人一起生活，我会成为一个更好的人。
These are the most accomplished people.” You would be able to listen to someone playing the cello.
这些都是最有成就的人。”您将能够听到有人演奏大提琴。
You would be listening to someone teaching you about Verdi operas.
你会听到有人教你威尔第歌剧。
They’re just an incredible group of individuals.
他们只是一群令人难以置信的个体。
In some sense, it’s not the same networking that Teddy Roosevelt would have been able to do, or John Kennedy.
从某种意义上说，这与泰迪·罗斯福或约翰·肯尼迪能够做到的网络不同。
It’s, instead, an ability to grasp just an enormous amount in a mere four years.
相反，它是一种在短短四年内掌握大量知识的能力。
I went to Cornell, which, of course, is an Ivy League school, too.
我去了康奈尔大学，当然，它也是常春藤盟校。
I had a phenomenal experience, but nothing like I would have if I went to Harvard right now.
我有过一次非凡的经历，但如果我现在去哈佛，我不会有这样的经历。
That’s why I want to go back to college.
这就是为什么我想回到大学。
You’re there now, right?
你现在就在那儿，对吗？
You get their classes.
你得到他们的课程。
I know, but I’m on the giving end and not the receiving end.
我知道，但我是施与者，而不是受者。
The literature on returns to skill — there’s a piece by Beaudry, empirical work by Rob Valletta, which argues that post-2000 or so, the returns to skill are, in general, collapsing.
关于技能回报的文献 ——有一篇 Beaudry 的文章，Rob Valletta 的实证著作，其中认为 2000 年后左右，技能的回报总体上正在崩溃。
Do you view that as stepping outside of your model with Katz in your book Race between Education and Technology?
您是否认为这超出了您在《教育与技术的竞赛》一书中卡茨的模式？
Or do you dispute the result?
或者您对结果有异议？
Or how do you see that?
或者你怎么看？
I would have to go back over the returns to which skills.
我得回去回顾一下哪些技能的回报。
Most skills.
大多数技能。
They suspect it may be due to automation or artificial intelligence.
他们怀疑这可能是由于自动化或人工智能所致。
I read the work of David Deming, in which the set of skills that are in enormously great demand are a set of social skills.
我读过大卫·戴明（David Deming）的著作，其中急需的一系列技能是一套社交技能。
The question is how do you up social skills?
问题是你如何提高社交能力？
It seems as if we know a lot about the demand for social skills; we know a lot less about the supply of social skills.
似乎我们对社交技能的需求了解很多；我们对社交技能的供应知之甚少。
It may be that when we think about the skills of the past, we’re thinking about, first, manual skills, then motor skills and mental skills.
当我们思考过去的技能时，我们可能首先想到的是体力技能，然后是运动技能和心理技能。
Now we’re moving into the range of social skills.
现在我们正在进入社交技能的范围。
On past and future projects
关于过去和未来的项目
Our last segment on economic history.
我们关于经济史的最后一部分。
Why wasn’t there a Coasian solution to the Civil War, namely just buying out the slaveholders?
为什么内战没有一个科斯式的解决方案，即买断奴隶主的股份？
This is going back to your work from, what, 1977?
这要追溯到你 1977 年的作品？
Well, Lincoln wrestled with that.
嗯，林肯对此进行了斗争。
When one thinks about what went on in the White House during the Civil War, one thinks about Lincoln just physically wrestling with all of these difficult issues.
当人们想到内战期间白宫发生的事情时，人们会想到林肯只是在与所有这些难题进行身体斗争。
In fact, the slaves were purchased in the District of Columbia.
事实上，这些奴隶是在哥伦比亚特区购买的。
He was doing calculations about how we could pay slave owners for their property.
他正在计算我们如何向奴隶主支付他们的财产。
For the longest time, one of the central issues in Lincoln’s mind was that property was extremely important to protect, and slaves were property, so we would have to buy out the slaves.
在很长一段时间里，林肯心目中的核心问题之一是保护财产极其重要，而奴隶也是财产，所以我们必须买断奴隶。
He made lots of different calculations.
他做了很多不同的计算。
Of course, there were many different emancipation programs that preceded that.
当然，在此之前有许多不同的解放计划。
In fact, you may know that the North had slaves.
事实上，你可能知道北方有奴隶。
New York did.
纽约做到了。
New Jersey did, and by acts of the legislature, slaves were freed as of a certain age.
新泽西州确实这样做了，并且通过立法机构的法案，奴隶在达到一定年龄后获得了自由。
That was what was called gradual emancipation.
这就是所谓的渐次解脱。
It wasn’t very good emancipation, and it could have had some horrific effects.
这不是很好的解放，而且可能会产生一些可怕的影响。
In fact, one of the effects was that slaves were shipped from these northern areas to the South.
事实上，影响之一是奴隶被从这些北部地区运往南方。
There were lots of different potential programs.
有很多不同的潜在计划。
One of the things that Frank Lewis and I did when we computed the cost of the Civil War was, we were essentially telling Lincoln, “Oops, you should have done it.”
弗兰克·刘易斯和我在计算内战成本时所做的一件事是，我们本质上是在告诉林肯，“哎呀，你应该这么做。”
What best predicted anti-immigration sentiment in the 1920s?
什么最能预测 20 年代的反移民情绪？
Well, what probably best predicted it was a combination — it appeared from some ancient work I’ve done — of areas that got immigrants, and had reduced the opportunities for others in the area, and for whom the immigrant groups that were there already were not the ones who were flooding in.
好吧，最能预测这一情况的可能是一个组合——“它出现在我所做的一些古代工作中”——“这些地区吸引了移民，并减少了该地区其他人的机会，而对这些地区来说，已经存在的移民群体并不是涌入的移民群体。”
One could think of the various parts of the country.
人们可以想到该国的各个地区。
Ironically, the South was really pro-immigrant for the longest time because it viewed these immigrants as a wonderful substitute for a labor force that was migrating north and had, for decades, not been slave.
具有讽刺意味的是，南方在最长的时间里实际上是支持移民的，因为它认为这些移民是向北迁移的劳动力的绝佳替代品，而且几十年来一直没有成为奴隶。
So, the South was pro-immigrant.
因此，南方是支持移民的。
They became anti-immigrant only when they realized that immigrants weren’t going there, and when they were going there, they were Italians, and they were dark.
只有当他们意识到移民不会去那里时，他们才变得反移民，而当他们去那里时，他们是意大利人，他们是黑暗的。
These were pretty racist people.
这些人都是相当种族主义的人。
In the North, the places that began to shift being anti-immigrant — and I was looking more at the shifts of voting for legislation that would put in place rules for literacy — those places were places that did not have large numbers of people from eastern, central, and southern Europe.
在北方，那些开始转向反移民的地方——“我更多地关注投票立法的转变，这些立法将制定识字规则”——“这些地方没有大量来自东欧、中欧和南欧的人。
The people there went on slamming the door in the face of their relatives.
那里的人们继续当着他们的亲戚的面关上门。
Very last question.
最后一个问题。
Your book is coming out.
你的书要出版了。
Again, that book is Career and Family: Women’s Century‑Long Journey toward Equity by Claudia Goldin.
同样，这本书是克劳迪娅·戈尔丁（Claudia Goldin）的《职业与家庭：女性百年的公平之旅》。
Other than promoting your book, what will you be doing next?
除了宣传你的书之外，你接下来还会做什么？
Oh, wonderful.
哦，太棒了。
I’m working on a couple of projects.
我正在做几个项目。
This is a lot of fun.
这很有趣。
There was something called the Lanham Act that was passed in 1940 that was for infrastructure for America — lots of money.
1940 年通过了一项名为《兰纳姆法案》的法案，旨在为美国提供基础设施建设——大量资金。
By 1942–43, it was pretty clear that America needed to — in fighting this war at home, in producing goods for the Allies, we needed to have women employed.
到 1942-43 年，很明显美国需要“在国内打这场战争，为盟国生产商品，我们需要雇用女性”。
So, the Lanham Act funds were repurposed for nursery schools and after-school programs.
因此，《兰纳姆法案》的资金被重新用于幼儿园和课后项目。
What we’re doing with Joe Ferrie and Claudia Olivetti is finding out exactly where these Lanham schools were.
我们正在与乔·费里和克劳迪娅·奥利维蒂一起查明这些拉纳姆学校的确切位置。
Through the amazing ability that exists now, we can figure out whether individuals who were three to six years old during some period had some high probability of going to a Lanham school, what happened to them 50 years later.
通过现在存在的惊人能力，我们可以弄清楚某个时期三到六岁的人是否有很高的概率去兰纳姆学校就读，50年后他们会发生什么。
That’s one of the things I’m doing.
这是我正在做的事情之一。
Another thing is trying to figure out why men who are fathers do so well relative to women who are mothers.
另一件事是试图弄清楚为什么男性父亲比女性母亲做得更好。
That’s another piece to the puzzle.
这是另一个难题。
Claudia Goldin, thank you very much.
克劳迪娅·戈尔丁，非常感谢你。
It was a real pleasure to meet you almost in person, Tyler.
泰勒，很高兴能够亲自见到您。
Same here.
同样在这里。
Till next time.
下次吧。
Thumbnail and header photo credit: BBVA Foundation
缩略图和标题照片来源：BBVA 基金会