Bruno Maçães on the Spirit of Adventure (Ep. 50)

Bruno, thank you for coming.

布鲁诺，谢谢你的到来。

MAÇÃES: It’s a pleasure.

马切斯：很高兴。

MAÇÃES: There was actually — and maybe you know about this — that was actually my dissertation.

MAÇÉS：实际上有——也许你知道这一点——那实际上是我的论文。

I was trying to think along those lines.

我试图沿着这些思路思考。

I don’t think there is.

我认为不存在。

Back then, I actually was trying to explain that liberalism is compatible and promotes adventure.

当时我其实是想解释自由主义是兼容并蓄、提倡冒险的。

Now I’m more and more convinced that it doesn’t and that you have to go outside of liberalism to find something like the ideal, the practice, and the appeal of adventure.

现在我越来越相信事实并非如此，你必须跳出自由主义去寻找理想、实践和冒险的吸引力之类的东西。

MAÇÃES: Too much control, the idea of a life plan.

MAÇÉS：太多的控制，人生计划的想法。

I haven’t read Rawls in now 10 or 12, even 15 years.

我已经有 10 年、12 年、甚至 15 年没有读过罗尔斯了。

But that is a very central idea to him.

但这对他来说是一个非常核心的想法。

It’s everywhere that you plan your life, that you make some choices of values, and then you organize almost tactically how you get to those values.

到处都是你计划你的生活，你做出一些价值观选择，然后你几乎从战术上组织如何实现这些价值观。

That never appealed to me.

这对我来说从来没有吸引力。

MAÇÃES: We would need to downplay the idea of choice.

MAÇÉS：我们需要淡化选择的想法。

We would need to downplay the idea of control.

我们需要淡化控制的想法。

A certain openness to the unexpected.

对意外事件有一定的开放态度。

What I did back then, when I was thinking about these things, was, we have to reframe right and the idea of law.

当我思考这些事情时，我当时所做的是，我们必须重新构建权利和法律的理念。

All these concepts have to be reframed in some substantial ways in order to get there.

为了实现这一目标，所有这些概念都必须以某种实质性的方式重新构建。

MAÇÃES: Yes.

马切斯：是的。

Stendhal is the best example of this ideal.

司汤达就是这一理想的最好例子。

All his books are, one way or another, about adventure.

他所有的书都以某种方式讲述冒险。

It’s not there on the page, but he thinks about it almost philosophically.

页面上没有这个内容，但他几乎从哲学角度思考了这个问题。

MAÇÃES: First of all, from a theoretical point of view, we think we know all the answers.

MAÇÉS：首先，从理论角度来看，我们认为我们知道所有答案。

We think we know how to live.

我们认为我们知道如何生活。

What you get today is, in fact, this attitude of constant preaching, of telling you what you should be doing and what life is for.

事实上，你今天得到的就是这种不断说教的态度，告诉你你应该做什么，生活的目的是什么。

We have the answers.

我们有答案。

Of course, from a theoretical point of view, adventure is about not knowing the answers, looking around.

当然，从理论上来说，冒险就是在不知道答案的情况下环顾四周。

Adventure is fundamentally about being aware that there may be a completely different lifestyle that you’re not aware of, and they’re just passing you by because you’re not looking for it.

冒险从根本上来说是要意识到可能有一种你没有意识到的完全不同的生活方式，它们只是从你身边擦肩而过，因为你没有寻找它。

I don’t find this anxiety present in contemporary liberalism at all.

我发现当代自由主义中根本不存在这种焦虑。

Adventure is fundamentally about being aware that there may be a completely different lifestyle that you’re not aware of, and they’re just passing you by because you’re not looking for it.

冒险从根本上来说是要意识到可能有一种你没有意识到的完全不同的生活方式，它们只是从你身边擦肩而过，因为你没有寻找它。

I don’t find this anxiety present in contemporary liberalism at all.

我发现当代自由主义中根本不存在这种焦虑。

MAÇÃES: No, never.

马切斯：不，从来没有。

Of course, never.

当然，从来没有。

The reason it can never be right is that, actually, human beings don’t want it to be over.

它永远不可能正确的原因是，实际上，人类不希望它结束​​。

Since history is a human creation — with chance mixed in it, of course, but it is fundamentally a human creation — if human beings wanted it to be over, they could do it, but they don’t want it.

既然历史是人类的创造——当然，其中夹杂着偶然性，但它从根本上来说是人类的创造——如果人类希望它结束​​，他们可以这样做，但他们不希望这样。

They want it to continue to be open.

他们希望它继续开放。

MAÇÃES: Very much.

马切斯：非常喜欢。

Not just his books, which I read religiously when I was 23, 24, 25, but of course, when I met him and I studied with him personally.

不仅仅是他的书，我在 23、24、25 岁时虔诚地阅读这些书，当然，当我见到他并亲自和他一起学习时。

He is a personality that attracts you.

他是一个吸引你的个性。

Every single conversation is memorable, so I still remember those.

每一次的谈话都令人难忘，所以我仍然记得那些。

MAÇÃES: It has to be China.

MAÇÉS：一定是中国。

It doesn’t mean that there couldn’t be others and that we couldn’t develop others in the West, as well.

这并不意味着不能有其他人，也不意味着我们不能在西方发展其他人。

I don’t see the energy, the vitality for that.

我看不到那样的能量和活力。

Russia certainly doesn’t seem to present an alternative.

俄罗斯似乎确实没有提供替代方案。

China does.

中国确实如此。

I saw that in the travels that are part of this book, how all over the world, people are getting more and more attracted to the Chinese model for reasons we can discuss.

我在本书的旅行中看到，世界各地的人们越来越被中国模式所吸引，原因我们可以讨论。

Essentially, it projects an image of state capacity, of efficiency, of getting things done.

从本质上讲，它投射了国家能力、效率和完成任务的形象。

By misfortune, that’s precisely the opposite of what the West is projecting right now.

不幸的是，这与西方现在的预测恰恰相反。

That explains why China has become an appealing model.

这解释了为什么中国已成为一个有吸引力的模式。

MAÇÃES: The crucial distinction here is that the contemporary Chinese model is a model of modern society, of technological society, and that changed everything.

马埃斯：这里的关键区别在于，当代中国模式是现代社会、技术社会的模式，它改变了一切。

Their continuities, their transformations — they transformed their cultural tradition into something that can be called modern.

他们的延续，他们的转变——他们将自己的文化传统转变为可以称为现代的东西。

In the end, you can’t make judgments about what China was 200 years ago and compare it to what it is today because there’s been a fundamental break.

最后，你无法对200年前的中国做出判断，也无法将其与今天进行比较，因为已经发生了根本性的断裂。

The entering into modern society, which we’ve done in the West and China has done as well now, changes everything.

进入现代社会，我们在西方和中国现在所做的那样，改变了一切。

On the ability of the US and EU to break from the past

论美国和欧盟摆脱过去的能力

MAÇÃES: I think it is.

马切斯：我认为是的。

It’s present in my book and in almost everything I write that I still think the United States is capable of this and that Europe isn’t.

在我的书中以及我所写的几乎所有内容中，我仍然认为美国有能力做到这一点，而欧洲却没有。

I’m open to changing my mind on this, but I still see this.

我愿意改变主意，但我仍然看到这一点。

Trump and everything else that is happening here shows that there is a deep discontent and an attempt to look for other ways, which may turn out, and almost inevitably will turn out, to be misguided at first.

特朗普和这里发生的其他一切都表明，人们存在深深的不满，并试图寻找其他方式，而这可能一开始就会被误导，而且几乎不可避免地会被误导。

But in the end, it may work out.

但最终，它可能会成功。

MAÇÃES: It can do a few things very well.

MAÇÉS：它可以很好地完成一些事情。

It introduces rationality, almost a scientific spirit, into politics, which sometimes may seem boring.

它将理性，几乎是一种科学精神，引入了有时看起来很无聊的政治。

But I’m sure I would miss it if it wasn’t there.

但我确信如果它不在那里我会想念它。

All the nonsense that you get in national politics — the European Union dilutes it, counters it, and gives you something that is actually more palatable, more acceptable.

你在国家政治中得到的所有废话——欧盟都会淡化它、反驳它，并给你一些实际上更容易接受、更容易接受的东西。

It does open borders.

它确实开放了边界。

It does make borders more or less irrelevant in Europe, and that’s a very good thing.

它确实使欧洲的边界或多或少变得无关紧要，这是一件非常好的事情。

It is quite successful in the things it does.

它所做的事情相当成功。

My critiques, most of the time, are about the things it doesn’t even attempt to do.

大多数时候，我的批评都是关于它甚至没有尝试做的事情。

The things it attempts to do it does rather well.

它尝试做的事情做得相当好。

MAÇÃES: It won’t disintegrate.

MAÇÉS：它不会分解。

What is possible is that it will become ineffective.

有可能的是它会变得无效。

It will become a repetition of the Holy Roman Empire.

它将成为神圣罗马帝国的重复。

It will be around.

它将在附近。

People will still pay tribute to it, but it won’t do anything.

人们仍然会向它致敬，但它起不到任何作用。

I think that’s a possibility, but a full-scale disintegration, I don’t think that can happen.

我认为这是一种可能性，但全面解体，我认为这不可能发生。

Isn’t that a victory for Fukuyama?

这不是福山的胜利吗？

Or how should we think about that?

或者说我们应该如何思考这个问题？

MAÇÃES: That would be fine.

MAÇÉS：那就好了。

I don’t like the argument that the scenario you described is something that kills human greatness, and so we have to disrupt it somehow.

我不喜欢这样的论点，即你所描述的场景会扼杀人类的伟大性，因此我们必须以某种方式破坏它。

If that’s the scenario, it would be fine.

如果是这样的场景，那就好了。

I don’t think it’s possible.

我认为这是不可能的。

There are people all over the world that have their sights on Europe, that think that people, let us say in Brussels, where I lived last year, work five or six hours a day and have very high incomes, where people in Delhi work 14 hours a day and have very low incomes.

世界各地都有人把目光投向欧洲，认为人们，比如说我去年住过的布鲁塞尔，每天工作五六个小时，收入很高，而德里的人每天工作14小时，收入很低。

The idea that we have in Europe that everyone all over the world finds this acceptable or good is, of course, a great delusion.

在欧洲，我们认为世界各地的每个人都认为这是可以接受的或好的，这当然是一个巨大的错觉。

It won’t last, this way of life that we have in Europe.

我们欧洲的这种生活方式不会持续太久。

MAÇÃES: Yes, because of all kinds of competition.

MAÇÉS：是的，因为各种各样的竞争。

I think Europe still benefits from the wages of the past, the fact that it was leading different technological revolutions.

我认为欧洲仍然受益于过去的工资水平，事实上它正在引领不同的技术革命。

Once that’s no longer the case — once, let us say, all the royalties and the licensing fees from our technology dry up — that will be felt.

一旦情况不再如此——“一旦，我们技术的所有特许权使用费和许可费都枯竭了”——人们就会感受到这一点。

There will be pain.

会有疼痛。

I think it will happen because the impression now, the experience now, of going to China and other places is precisely to see that they are trying to overturn this situation.

我认为它会发生，因为现在的印象、现在的体验，到中国和其他地方，正是看到他们正在努力扭转这种局面。

MAÇÃES: If it stagnates, if it continues to stagnate, if people all over the world, if the tourists arriving from China suddenly are the ones filling up the restaurants in Paris, and young French men and women are serving them at the tables, this is not exactly the European dream, but it’s, of course, a very serious possibility now.

马切斯：如果它停滞不前，如果继续停滞，如果世界各地的人们，如果来自中国的游客突然挤满了巴黎的餐馆，年轻的法国男女在餐桌上为他们服务，这不完全是欧洲的梦想，但当然，现在这是一个非常严重的可能性。

The last year, the last two years, have been better, but still the predominant feeling in Europe is of stagnation, of not going anywhere, especially among the young — where sometimes you have, of course, social security and healthcare and even a salary that allows you to live decently, but you have no dreams, no opportunities of getting into the job that you always wanted to get into.

去年，过去两年，情况有所好转，但欧洲的主要感觉仍然是停滞不前，哪儿也去不了，尤其是年轻人——当然，有时你有社会保障和医疗保健，甚至有一份可以让你过上体面生活的薪水，但你没有梦想，没有机会获得你一直想从事的工作。

That’s the feeling in Europe now.

这就是现在欧洲的感觉。

The last year, the last two years, have been better, but still the predominant feeling in Europe is of stagnation, of not going anywhere, especially among the young — where sometimes you have, of course, social security and healthcare and even a salary that allows you to live decently, but you have no dreams, no opportunities of getting into the job that you always wanted to get into.

去年，过去两年，情况有所好转，但欧洲的主要感觉仍然是停滞不前，哪儿也去不了，尤其是年轻人——当然，有时你有社会保障和医疗保健，甚至有一份可以让你过上体面生活的薪水，但你没有梦想，没有机会获得你一直想从事的工作。

MAÇÃES: Yes, I’ve come to that opinion slowly and reluctantly.

MAÇÉS：是的，我是慢慢地、不情愿地得出这个观点的。

Four or five years ago, I thought that it was up to Ukraine.

四五年前，我认为这取决于乌克兰。

Now, I’m more and more convinced that if Russia is not stopped, and if their interference is not stopped, it’s simply impossible.

现在，我越来越相信，如果俄罗斯不停止，如果他们的干涉不停止，那根本不可能。

It’s beyond human power to make a country successful under those conditions.

在这种情况下，一个国家无法取得成功，这超出了人力所能及的范围。

Just the budget that Ukraine devotes to the war effort makes it very difficult for a country that should be investing in education, healthcare, infrastructure.

仅乌克兰用于战争的预算就让一个本应投资于教育、医疗保健和基础设施的国家变得非常困难。

MAÇÃES: I think, perhaps, Georgia.

MAÇÉS：我想，也许是乔治亚州。

MAÇÃES: Right.

马切斯： 是的。

On the one hand, I don’t see the same destructive impetus coming from Moscow in relation to Georgia as it is in relation to Ukraine, probably because Georgia also didn’t attempt to become an anti-Russian bulwark on the borders of Europe.

一方面，我认为莫斯科对格鲁吉亚的破坏性推动力不像对乌克兰的那样，可能是因为格鲁吉亚也没有试图成为欧洲边境的反俄罗斯堡垒。

I think they’ve been able to build an interesting experiment there of a country that is increasingly connected to Europe, not breaking with Russia, increasingly connected with China.

我认为他们已经能够在那里建立一个有趣的实验，这个国家与欧洲的联系越来越紧密，而不是与俄罗斯决裂，而是与中国的联系越来越紧密。

For my book, it’s a very interesting country.

对于我的书来说，这是一个非常有趣的国家。

Then, of course, there’s Azerbaijan.

当然，还有阿塞拜疆。

It’s difficult to find others beyond these two.

除了这两个之外很难找到其他人。

MAÇÃES: That’s why I like Azerbaijan so much.

MAÇÉS：这就是我如此喜欢阿塞拜疆的原因。

It’s very difficult to tell what it is.

很难说清楚它是什么。

Once you’re convinced that this is fundamentally a European country, something happens that proves otherwise, and the other way around.

一旦你确信这从根本上来说是一个欧洲国家，就会发生一些事情证明事实并非如此，反之亦然。

If you want to look for a country that truly combines East and West, I would start with Azerbaijan.

如果你想寻找一个真正融合东西方的国家，我会从阿塞拜疆开始。

MAÇÃES: It is, of course, a very repressive dictatorship.

马切斯：当然，这是一个非常镇压的独裁政权。

But one thing I feel strongly about and that I would try to change in how we in the US and in Europe approach these things is, there are different shades of authoritarianism.

但我强烈感受到的一件事是，威权主义存在不同程度的差异，而且我会努力改变美国和欧洲对待这些事情的方式。

I’m not even sure the word authoritarianism is a good one because it projects our experience into other parts of the world.

我什至不确定威权主义这个词是不是一个好词，因为它将我们的经验投射到世界其他地方。

Central Asia

中亚

But when you travel, for example, from Azerbaijan into Turkmenistan, then Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, you see that these countries are very different.

但当你旅行时，例如，从阿塞拜疆到土库曼斯坦，然后是哈萨克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦，你会发现这些国家非常不同。

You breathe an air of freedom in Kazakhstan that you certainly don’t breathe in Turkmenistan.

在哈萨克斯坦你呼吸到的自由空气是在土库曼斯坦呼吸不到的。

We in the West tend to say they’re all the same.

我们西方人倾向于说它们都是一样的。

Because they’re not like us, they’re all the same.

因为他们和我们不一样，他们都是一样的。

I think this is a big mistake.

我认为这是一个很大的错误。

MAÇÃES: I fear it is not a bright future.

MAÇÉS：我担心这不是一个光明的未来。

The dynamics all point towards a reawakening of the military conflict in the future, and every development in the region makes it more difficult.

所有动态都表明未来军事冲突将重新爆发，而该地区的每一次事态发展都会使冲突变得更加困难。

What is happening now with Armenia becoming less aligned with Russia could precisely be the trigger to a conflict.

目前亚美尼亚与俄罗斯关系的疏远可能恰恰会引发冲突。

If Russia removes the guarantees that it’s offered to Armenia, then I think Azerbaijan is going to be in a very good position to try to recover that territory.

如果俄罗斯取消向亚美尼亚提供的保证，那么我认为阿塞拜疆将处于非常有利的位置，试图收复该领土。

So I’m not optimistic about what can happen there.

所以我对那里会发生什么并不乐观。

MAÇÃES: This raises deep philosophical questions and political questions.

MAÇÉS：这提出了深刻的哲学问题和政治问题。

If you want Turkey to become like Europe, then you have to project European power across Turkey.

如果你希望土耳其变得像欧洲一样，那么你就必须将欧洲的力量投射到土耳其各地。

If Europe no longer has that ability, then you shouldn’t be surprised that Turkey looks elsewhere.

如果欧洲不再具备这种能力，那么土耳其将目光投向别处也就不足为奇了。

It’s very simple.

这很简单。

I think I say in the book that in order to be loved, you also have to be feared.

我想我在书中说过，为了被爱，你也必须被恐惧。

This idea that you find in Europe now, that without projecting any kind of power, other countries will be attracted to the European model, that’s a form of utopianism.

你现在在欧洲发现的这种想法是，在不投射任何力量的情况下，其他国家就会被欧洲模式所吸引，这是一种乌托邦主义。

I just cannot see that happen.

我就是看不到这种事发生。

MAÇÃES: That is certainly the case.

MAÇÉS：情况确实如此。

I think you see that.

我想你明白了。

One of the areas where the spirit of adventure today is more relevant and important is technology.

如今，冒险精神更加相关和重要的领域之一是技术。

You see in Europe the idea that technology’s against us, and we should resist this rather than embrace it.

你在欧洲看到技术对我们不利的想法，我们应该抵制而不是拥抱它。

A very negative spirit, which I think is a good example of how adventure has disappeared from the European psyche.

这是一种非常消极的精神，我认为这是冒险精神如何从欧洲人心中消失的一个很好的例子。

One of the areas where the spirit of adventure today is more relevant and important is technology.

如今，冒险精神更加相关和重要的领域之一是技术。

You see in Europe the idea that technology’s against us, and we should resist this rather than embrace it.

你在欧洲看到技术对我们不利的想法，我们应该抵制而不是拥抱它。

A very negative spirit, which I think is a good example of how adventure has disappeared from the European psyche.

这是一种非常消极的精神，我认为这是冒险精神如何从欧洲人心中消失的一个很好的例子。

MAÇÃES: Many different things, but I think my model would be .

MAÇÉS：有很多不同的东西，但我认为我的模型是。

.

。

.

。

the fundamental factor is the fact that we led the previous revolutions.

根本因素是我们领导了以前的革命。

We were successful.

我们成功了。

We got a lot out of them.

我们从他们身上得到了很多。

I think it’s human nature — it applies to individuals, but also to countries and even to continents.

我认为这是人性——它适用于个人，也适用于国家甚至大陆。

If you’ve been successful bringing about the last wave of change, then you want to preserve things as they were.

如果您成功地带来了最后一波变革，那么您希望保持现状。

You want to enjoy the fruits of what you did, of all the work you had.

你想要享受你所做的一切、你所做的一切工作的成果。

Then it will be up to others, in other parts of the world, to lead the next wave.

然后，将由世界其他地区的其他人来引领下一波浪潮。

Perhaps in 1,000 or 2,000 years, Europe will be back there again.

也许一千年或两千年后，欧洲会再次回到那个状态。

That’s how I think about change in history.

这就是我对历史变革的看法。

MAÇÃES: I think a little bit of what we’ve been seeing in the last decade: not breaking with Europe, but being in an adversarial relation with the EU institutions.

马切斯：我认为我们在过去十年中看到了一些情况：没有与欧洲决裂，而是与欧盟机构处于敌对关系。

Also a problem, of course, for the EU because it becomes much more difficult to have ambitious plans and to do things if, inside the EU, you have a number of countries — which is growing by the day — that are in some kind of adversarial relationship with you.

当然，对欧盟来说这也是一个问题，因为如果在欧盟内部有许多国家与你处于某种敌对关系，那么制定雄心勃勃的计划和采取行动就会变得更加困难。

MAÇÃES: There aren’t any, but I have to say that the esoteric method .

MAÇÉS：没有，但我不得不说的是深奥的方法。

.

。

.

。

I used to think, when I was reading Strauss at 18 or 20, that it was too fanciful.

当我18、20岁时读施特劳斯的作品时，我曾经认为这太异想天开了。

I have to say, in my political experience and now writing books, it is helpful.

我不得不说，对我的政治经历和现在写书来说，是有帮助的。

You have to be aware of different ways to communicate and the possibilities that opens, that you can say something to certain people without getting in trouble, necessarily, by being too open about your views.

你必须意识到不同的沟通方式和打开的可能性，你可以对某些人说一些话，而不会因为过于开放你的观点而陷入麻烦。

I think that’s helpful for everyone.

我认为这对每个人都有帮助。

I doubt that any single good writer doesn’t do a little bit of this.

我怀疑任何一个优秀的作家都不会这样做。

MAÇÃES: American exceptionalism is correct in its time.

MAÇÉS：美国例外论在其时代是正确的。

I think it won’t last forever.

我认为它不会永远持续下去。

The idea that you hear now, and you heard it during the John McCain funeral, that America was always great, it is still great and will always be great — as a political message, it may be helpful and useful.

你现在听到的想法，以及你在约翰·麦凯恩葬礼上听到的想法，即美国一直都是伟大的，它仍然是伟大的，并且将永远是伟大的——作为一个政治信息，它可能是有帮助和有用的。

But of course, as a philosophy of history, it’s bonkers.

但当然，作为一种历史哲学，它是疯狂的。

MAÇÃES: I’m still very puzzled, even though I lived here, on the whole, for eight years.

MAÇÉS：尽管我在这里住了八年，但我仍然很困惑。

I’m still very puzzled about what America is about.

我仍然对美国到底是什么感到非常困惑。

I cannot find a book or a particular understanding by any author that I’m entirely happy with about America.

我找不到一本让我对美国完全满意的书或作者的特别理解。

America still remains a big mystery.

美国仍然是一个大谜团。

MAÇÃES: I think, and people there told me the same — people who have lived there for decades — that the big changes came 30 years ago.

MAÇÉS：我认为，那里的人们也同样告诉我——“在那里生活了几十年的人们”——巨大的变化发生在 30 年前。

If you’d been to the Valley 10 years ago and you go now, you don’t see much difference.

如果你十年前去过硅谷，现在又去，你不会发现有什么不同。

There’s a sense that things have slowed down.

有一种感觉事情已经放缓了。

That’s very obvious and not particularly good news.

这是非常明显的，但并不是什么特别好的消息。

MAÇÃES: Maybe more immediately, the book applies to political entrepreneurs, people that want to create a new political order, or at least to contribute to that.

马切斯：也许更直接地说，这本书适用于政治企业家，那些想要创建新政治秩序或至少为此做出贡献的人。

Business entrepreneurs, there’s also some ideas there that are relevant.

企业家们，也有一些相关的想法。

Connecting Europe and Asia is going to be both very critical and very profitable for those who manage how to do it.

连接欧洲和亚洲对于那些设法做到这一点的人来说既非常重要，又非常有利可图。

For those who are able to connect different parts of Eurasia — I say in the first or second page that people that are very successful in business today are people that are aware of the differences.

对于那些能够连接欧亚大陆不同地区的人 —— 我在第一页或第二页中说，当今商业上非常成功的人都是意识到差异的人。

They don’t try to reduce them.

他们不会试图减少它们。

They work by connecting different cultural areas.

他们通过连接不同的文化领域来工作。

Connecting Europe and Asia is going to be both very critical and very profitable for those who manage how to do it.

连接欧洲和亚洲对于那些设法做到这一点的人来说既非常重要，又非常有利可图。

For those who are able to connect different parts of Eurasia — I say in the first or second page that people that are very successful in business today are people that are aware of the differences.

对于那些能够连接欧亚大陆不同地区的人 —— 我在第一页或第二页中说，当今商业上非常成功的人都是意识到差异的人。

They don’t try to reduce them.

他们不会试图减少它们。

They work by connecting different cultural areas.

他们通过连接不同的文化领域来工作。

Lots of people lose a lot of money because they think, when they go and try to sell their products in China, that China is becoming like the West, the wealthy classes are becoming like the West.

很多人损失了很多钱，因为当他们试图在中国销售产品时，他们认为中国正在变得像西方，富裕阶层正在变得像西方。

I had a talk that I gave to a famous whiskey producer.

我给一位著名的威士忌生产商做了一次演讲。

My main message was, if you try to sell whiskey to the Chinese wealthy classes, don’t think for a moment that they are or are becoming like the Western wealthy classes.

我的主要信息是，如果你试图向中国富裕阶层出售威士忌，请暂时不要认为他们正在或正在变得像西方富裕阶层一样。

They are different.

他们是不同的。

So your advertising has to be different.

所以你的广告必须与众不同。

There’s opportunities to make a lot of money if you understand these dynamics.

如果您了解这些动态，就有机会赚很多钱。

MAÇÃES: Maybe about what I’ve been talking about at the beginning: adventure.

MAÇÉS：也许是关于我一开始所谈论的内容：冒险。

Maybe the idea of the unknown, the idea of the unexpected.

也许是未知的想法，意想不到的想法。

All of this is very difficult for economists; at the same time, so important.

所有这些对于经济学家来说都是非常困难的；同时，如此重要。

Of course, many economists have made a lot of progress on the idea of innovation, on the idea of newness, and I’ve been always very interested in those reflections.

当然，许多经济学家在创新理念、新颖理念上取得了很多进展，我一直对这些反思非常感兴趣。

But it always feels a little less than what is needed.

但总感觉比需要的少了一点。

MAÇÃES: Yes, I love his books.

MAÇÉS：是的，我喜欢他的书。

I think he is treated very unfairly.

我认为他受到了非常不公平的对待。

We now put everyone in the same bag as imperialists and racists.

我们现在把所有人都归为帝国主义者和种族主义者。

There were lots of people — part of the British Empire and its expansion — that actually had a very finely attuned understanding of different civilizations, and Kipling I would include there.

有很多人——“大英帝国及其扩张的一部分”——实际上对不同的文明有着非常微妙的理解，吉卜林一世也包括在内。

Another writer that comes out of that spirit that I love and that was important for this book is Toynbee.

汤因比是另一位具有我喜爱的这种精神的作家，这种精神对本书很重要。

When we read those books, we actually have the very vivid sense that we’ve lost that.

当我们读这些书时，我们实际上有一种非常鲜明的感觉，那就是我们已经失去了这一点。

We’ve lost that ability to arrive at a place without preconceptions and try to understand it on its own terms.

我们已经失去了不带先入之见地到达一个地方并试图按照它自己的方式理解它的能力。

If Kipling was bad at that, we’re much worse.

如果吉卜林在这方面做得不好，那么我们就更糟糕了。

On Brazil and Portugal

关于巴西和葡萄牙

MAÇÃES: There isn’t even a right wing.

MAÇÉS：甚至没有右翼。

There isn’t even a center right.

连中间都没有。

We have to develop that before we develop a far-right movement.

在发展极右运动之前，我们必须先发展这一点。

If you ask me why not, it is also — and I hope the listeners won’t be disappointed that I use this escape route too often — but it’s still a puzzle and a mystery to me.

如果你问我为什么不，那也是 ——我希望听众不会因为我经常使用这条逃生路线而失望 ——但这对我来说仍然是一个谜团和一个谜。

You could say it’s because of the dictatorship, reaction against that, the 48 years of Salazar.

你可以说这是因为独裁统治，对独裁统治的反应，萨拉查48年的统治。

But you had very similar dictatorships in Spain and Italy, and now you have very self-confident center-right and far-right parties.

但西班牙和意大利也有非常相似的独裁统治，现在有非常自信的中右翼和极右翼政党。

Not in Portugal, where it remains very difficult.

葡萄牙则不然，那里的情况仍然非常困难。

My experience in politics was precisely of how difficult it is to embrace ideas that everywhere else in the world are acceptable, but not in Portugal.

我在政治上的经验恰恰表明，接受世界上其他地方都可以接受但在葡萄牙却不能接受的想法是多么困难。

MAÇÃES: Yes.

马切斯：是的。

There’s some interesting texts where this is described.

有一些有趣的文本对此进行了描述。

Portugal made a lot of money in the early century of the empire, and then there was always this idea that the point of making all that money was to go back home and to build a small palace or a villa and enjoy your life.

葡萄牙在帝国初期赚了很多钱，然后总是有这样一种想法，即赚了所有钱的目的是回家建造一座小宫殿或别墅并享受生活。

Again, I said it before: I think this is human nature — applies to nations and to countries.

我之前说过，我认为这是人性——适用于民族和国家。

The vital energy that is necessary to change the world doesn’t last.

改变世界所需的重要能量不会持久。

It goes away, and then it’s someone else’s turn.

它消失了，然后轮到别人了。

MAÇÃES: I think so.

马切斯：我想是的。

The Euro crisis shows that the adjustments could be done inside a year.

欧元危机表明调整可以在一年内完成。

Lots of economists that thought it couldn’t were proven wrong.

许多经济学家认为不可能，但事实证明这是错误的。

MAÇÃES: Yes, which have been corrected in the meantime.

MAÇÉS：是的，同时已得到纠正。

Some of the problems that we have in Portugal are common, or perhaps even more serious, in Italy and regions of Europe.

葡萄牙面临的一些问题在意大利和欧洲地区很常见，甚至可能更严重。

If you look, actually, at the 10 poorest regions in the European Union, 5 are in the UK.

事实上，如果你看看欧盟最贫困的 10 个地区，就会发现有 5 个在英国。

So the problem is a bit more delicate than that.

所以问题比这要微妙一些。

I’m more and more convinced that the problems we have in Portugal are problems that we have all over Europe.

我越来越相信，葡萄牙所面临的问题也是整个欧洲所面临的问题。

Is that sustainable?

这是可持续的吗？

Are those prices too low?

这些价格是不是太低了？

Or do you expect for Porto an ongoing depopulation, where $60,000 to live downtown, plus some maintenance, is actually about right?

或者你认为波尔图的人口会持续减少，市中心的居住费用为 60,000 美元，加上一些维护，实际上是正确的吗？

MAÇÃES: Yes.

马切斯：是的。

The reason was, of course, that people moved out of the city into the suburbs, and prices collapsed in the center.

当然，原因是人们从城市搬到郊区，市中心的房价暴跌。

That’s been corrected now, as you’d expect.

正如您所期望的那样，现在已经更正了。

Lots of foreigners coming in.

很多外国人进来。

I meet almost all the time people in London that have bought a house for 60,000 or 80,000, and they go there for the weekends.

我在伦敦几乎经常遇到花六万或八万买了房子的人，他们会去那里度周末。

That has helped correct the prices a bit and helped the city.

这有助于调整价格，也对这座城市有所帮助。

MAÇÃES: I think so.

马切斯：我想是的。

I understand Brazil almost immediately, because some of the virtues and some of the flaws are the same.

我几乎立刻就了解了巴西，因为巴西的一些优点和一些缺点是相同的。

We always say that Brazil is a giant Portugal.

我们总是说巴西是巨人葡萄牙。

If everything had gone well with Portugal, then Brazil would have realized her historical destiny.

如果葡萄牙一切顺利，那么巴西就已经实现了她的历史命运。

But of course, some of the problems that Brazil is going through are similar to our own.

但当然，巴西正在经历的一些问题与我们相似。

Two recent prime minister and president of Portugal and Brazil are in jail and under investigation for corruption.

葡萄牙和巴西最近的两位总理和总统因腐败而入狱并接受调查。

They were very good friends.

他们是非常好的朋友。

We do seem to have a certain synchrony in our historical development, for good and bad.

我们的历史发展似乎确实具有一定的同步性，无论好坏。

MAÇÃES: It’s difficult to know.

MAÇÉS：这很难知道。

There was a moment 10, 15 years ago where people were more optimistic about Brazil than they are now, but the democracy, the democratic institutions still work well.

10、15年前，人们对巴西比现在更加乐观，但民主、民主制度仍然运转良好。

The courts work well.

法院运作良好。

We’re going to have an election now, which could be a moment to rebuild some of the things that were lost.

我们现在即将举行选举，这可能是重建一些失去的东西的时刻。

While that lasts, I’m still going to be an optimist.

虽然这种情况持续下去，但我仍然会保持乐观。

While the institutions actually resemble more the US institutions than some European institutions that are in worse shape, I think we should be optimistic.

虽然这些机构实际上更像美国机构，而不是一些状况较差的欧洲机构，但我认为我们应该保持乐观。

MAÇÃES: I don’t think the predominant sense in Brazil is of adventure.

MAÇÉS：我不认为巴西人的主导意识是冒险。

The predominant sense in Brazil is of dolce far niente, of a certain enjoyment of life and the small things of life.

巴西人的主要观念是“dolce far niente”，即享受生活和生活中的小事。

When I first went to Brazil, I was the urban depressive European who listens to Joy Division.

当我第一次去巴西时，我是一个听Joy Division的城市抑郁的欧洲人。

This is true — and I think it’s a good thing to point out — this is true of the upper classes in Rio, which are almost the perfect example of how to enjoy life in the world, anywhere in the world.

这是事实 ——我认为指出这一点是件好事—— 对于里约的上层阶级来说也是如此，他们几乎是如何在世界任何地方享受生活的完美典范。

But it’s also true of everyone.

但这对每个人来说也是如此。

It’s well distributed across Brazilian society, the sense of enjoying life.

享受生活的感觉在巴西社会中很普遍。

MAÇÃES: I’m not a big music fan, I should tell you.

MAÇÉS：我应该告诉你，我不是一个狂热的音乐迷。

But bossa nova is almost irresistible, for some of the reasons that I’ve been talking about.

但由于我一直在谈论的一些原因，巴萨诺瓦几乎是不可抗拒的。

It is a musical form that is very close to life in its simplest elements, doesn’t have a very obvious message.

这是一种最简单的元素非常贴近生活的音乐形式，没有非常明显的信息。

It is about life and the small things in life that we like and love.

它是关于生活以及我们喜欢和热爱的生活中的小事。

MAÇÃES: Every American should read, certainly, Pessoa, who died less than a hundred years ago but, I think, deserves to be called a classic.

马切斯：当然，每个美国人都应该读佩索阿的书，他去世还不到一百年，但我认为他值得被称为经典。

Certainly one of the five greatest writers of the 20th century.

当然是20世纪最伟大的五位作家之一。

I’d start with The Book of Disquiet, which is an extraordinary book and will always remain so.

我将从《不安之书》开始，这是一本非凡的书，而且将永远如此。

MAÇÃES: That is fantastic.

MAÇÉS：太棒了。

It’s a book I’ve taught when I was teaching at university.

这是我在大学教书时教过的一本书。

I made a point of teaching that.

我特意教导了这一点。

I think every young person under 25 will love that book and learn a lot from it.

我想每个25岁以下的年轻人都会喜欢这本书并从中学到很多东西。

On Russia as an underrated force

论俄罗斯是一支被低估的力量

MAÇÃES: The most impressive thing about Russia is, in fact, something that you might not think at first: the power of organization.

MAÇÉS：事实上，俄罗斯最令人印象深刻的事情是你一开始可能没有想到的：组织的力量。

We have this image of Russia as a failed state in many respects.

我们对俄罗斯的印象是在很多方面都是一个失败的国家。

But in order to keep that empire, in order to keep it together throughout the centuries, in order to develop it to some extent, in order to bring together so many ethnicities, so many religions .

但是为了保住那个帝国，为了在几个世纪里保持它的团结，为了在一定程度上发展它，为了将如此多的种族、如此多的宗教聚集在一起。

.

。

.

。

it’s fair to say that Russia has done a better job of integrating its Muslim population, which is close to 15 percent, than any other country, I would argue — certainly any other major country.

可以公平地说，俄罗斯在融合穆斯林人口方面做得比任何其他国家都好，我认为俄罗斯的穆斯林人口比例接近 15%，当然也比任何其他主要国家都好。

The power of the Russian state, the ability to organize, to dispose, to connect, is one of the great political stories of mankind — to see how the Russian state was able to grow and to extend itself.

俄罗斯国家的力量，组织、部署和联系的能力，是人类伟大的政治故事之一——看看俄罗斯国家如何能够发展和扩展自己。

And that’s still there.

那仍然存在。

MAÇÃES: Absolutely.

马切斯：当然。

When you go to Azerbaijan or Kazakhstan, which is the other example of that, you really have to wonder how the Soviet Union, in a short period of time, was able to change this culture so deeply, in a way that actually has continued after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

当你去阿塞拜疆或哈萨克斯坦（这是另一个例子）时，你真的不得不想知道苏联如何在短时间内能够如此深刻地改变这种文化，并且在苏联解体后实际上仍在继续。

Without making valid judgments about whether that was a good or bad thing, it shows the ability of the Russian state to penetrate life very, very deeply and to organize it.

虽然没有对这是好事还是坏事做出有效的判断，但它显示了俄罗斯国家非常非常深入地渗透生活并组织生活的能力。

MAÇÃES: The underlying flaw with Obama is always the same, is that he really took seriously this idea that history has a direction, that it’s going somewhere, to the point where, I think, at some point, he wasn’t even trying to change reality.

马塞斯：奥巴马的根本缺陷始终是一样的，就是他真的认真对待历史有方向的想法，历史有一个方向，它会走向某个地方，我认为，在某些时候，他甚至没有试图改变现实。

He was trying to get out of the way of reality.

他试图摆脱现实。

That, to me, is almost impossible to understand, how he could believe in something like that.

对我来说，这几乎是不可能理解的，他怎么会相信这样的事情。

If you read that interview he gave to Jeffrey Goldberg of The Atlantic, that comes up on every issue.

如果你读过他接受《大西洋月刊》杰弗里·戈德堡的采访，就会发现每一期都会出现这个问题。

It doesn’t matter if it’s Vietnam or Russia or China.

不管是越南、俄罗斯还是中国。

His immediate answer would be, “Well, history is going in this direction.

他立即回答说：“嗯，历史正在朝这个方向发展。

Let’s get out of the way and let it work its wonders.”

让我们让开，让它发挥它的奇迹。”

The underlying flaw with Obama is always the same, is that he really took seriously this idea that history has a direction, that it’s going somewhere, to the point where, I think, at some point, he wasn’t even trying to change reality.

奥巴马的根本缺陷总是一样的，那就是他真的认真对待历史有一个方向，历史有一个方向，它会走向某个地方，我认为，在某些时候，他甚至没有试图改变现实。

He was trying to get out of the way of reality.

他试图摆脱现实。

That, to me, is almost impossible to understand, how he could believe in something like that.

对我来说，这几乎是不可能理解的，他怎么会相信这样的事情。

MAÇÃES: No. I’m not sure of that, actually.

MAÇÉS：不，实际上我对此并不确定。

Tocqueville said that the United States and Russia had a lot in common.

托克维尔说，美国和俄罗斯有很多共同点。

I think there’s a certain ability that both have to understand the other.

我认为双方都必须具备一定的理解对方的能力。

The European Union, I think, does not understand Russia at all.

我认为欧盟根本不了解俄罗斯。

Certainly, the United States has trouble understanding the world as a whole, but Russia may actually be a bit of an exception.

当然，美国很难理解整个世界，但俄罗斯实际上可能是个例外。

MAÇÃES: Your question, Tyler, also shows a little bit of the Obama disposition.

马塞斯：泰勒，你的问题也显示出了一点奥巴马的性格。

You are puzzled why they are not liberal because you assume that everyone should be liberal, and so what needs to be explained is why they are not liberal.

你很困惑为什么他们不自由，因为你认为每个人都应该是自由的，所以需要解释的是为什么他们不自由。

But maybe we can look at this a bit differently.

但也许我们可以用不同的方式来看待这个问题。

There’s no strong reason why Russia should be liberal.

没有充分的理由说明俄罗斯应该实行自由主义。

In the absence of the forces that make you go in that direction, it didn’t.

如果没有让你朝那个方向前进的力量，它就不会。

MAÇÃES: I think, until Putin goes, it will be very difficult to do the reforms that Russia needs.

马切斯：我认为，在普京下台之前，俄罗斯需要的改革将非常困难。

I see them actually becoming more and more focused on energy, trying to expand to other regions, trying to extend their control of energy sources, in the Middle East in particular, energy connectors, pipelines in Syria.

我看到他们实际上越来越关注能源，试图扩展到其他地区，试图扩大他们对能源来源的控制，特别是在中东，叙利亚的能源连接器、管道。

I don’t see Russia being able .

我不认为俄罗斯有能力。

.

。

.

。

I don’t even take seriously the statements that occasionally come from the Kremlin, saying that they are developing an industrial park or a technology zone.

我什至没有认真对待克里姆林宫偶尔发出的关于他们正在开发工业园区或科技区的言论。

That’s not to be taken seriously anymore.

这已经不再值得认真对待了。

But after Putin, who knows?

但普京之后，谁知道呢？

MAÇÃES: You have to change a lot of things.

MAÇÉS：你必须改变很多事情。

You have to make a lot of people angry.

你必须让很多人生气。

You have to move money from some sectors to other sectors.

你必须将资金从某些部门转移到其他部门。

You have to change the laws.

你必须改变法律。

You have to break the power of oligarchs.

你必须打破寡头的权力。

You have to let small startups have a chance.

你必须让小型初创公司有机会。

All of this takes a lot of political will, which, simply, the current president and his people don’t have.

所有这一切都需要很大的政治意愿，而现任总统和他的人民却没有这种意愿。

MAÇÃES: Yes.

马切斯：是的。

It’s already happening.

这已经发生了。

MAÇÃES: I think it is, of course, a shock for Europeans because the idea that Russia was trying to become like us was always very reassuring, both psychologically but also politically.

马切斯：我认为这对欧洲人来说当然是一个震惊，因为俄罗斯试图变得像我们一样的想法总是非常令人安心，无论是在心理上还是在政治上。

I think, in some moments, Russia was of incredible help to Europeans.

我认为，在某些时刻，俄罗斯为欧洲人提供了难以置信的帮助。

It did defeat Napoleon, after all, and helped reestablish a certain balance in Europe that gave us a century of culture, and of economic growth, and of technological revolutions.

毕竟，它确实击败了拿破仑，并帮助欧洲重建了一定的平衡，为我们带来了一个世纪的文化、经济增长和技术革命。

The 19th century in Europe would have been very different and much worse without the Russian armies defeating Napoleon.

如果没有俄罗斯军队击败拿破仑，欧洲的 19 世纪将会非常不同，而且会更加糟糕。

That has always been very hard for us, to have that sense of, perhaps in the future, having Russia join us.

对我们来说，也许在未来，让俄罗斯加入我们的行列一直是非常困难的。

Now we lost that.

现在我们失去了这一点。

If we understand that Russia is never going to become like us, never going to join us, then suddenly we have a problem there.

如果我们明白俄罗斯永远不会变得像我们一样，永远不会加入我们，那么我们就会突然遇到问题。

Why is Russia, and also Ukraine, so extreme in this direction?

为什么俄罗斯和乌克兰在这个方向上如此极端？

MAÇÃES: Yes, you’re absolutely right.

MAÇÉS：是的，你说得完全正确。

That’s a very good point.

这是一个非常好的观点。

By the way, Russian women will tell you different things.

顺便说一句，俄罗斯女人会告诉你不同的事情。

They will, of course, complain that they are not taken seriously in the workplace, but they will also tell you that they like that masculinity of Russian men, which often just takes the form of paying for everything, which is another striking difference between Russia and the West — that the man is supposed to pay for literally everything when he goes on a date.

当然，他们会抱怨自己在工作场所没有受到认真对待，但他们也会告诉你，他们喜欢俄罗斯男人的阳刚之气，这种阳刚之气往往表现为为所有事情买单，这是俄罗斯和西方之间的另一个显着差异——男人在约会时应该为所有事情买单。

This is perhaps one of the areas where you see that Russia has its own political will.

这也许是俄罗斯有自己政治意愿的领域之一。

There’s really no appetite to go in the direction that we in the West feel is obvious and inevitable.

确实没有兴趣朝着我们西方人认为显而易见且不可避免的方向前进。

There are some, of course, movements about the workplace, but not a lot in terms of changing that dynamic between the sexes.

当然，有一些关于工作场所的运动，但在改变两性之间的动态方面并没有太多。

By the way, in a way, I think in Europe, this is perhaps becoming clear, that some people are starting to get attracted to a certain Russian way of life.

顺便说一句，在某种程度上，我认为在欧洲，这可能变得越来越明显，一些人开始被某种俄罗斯生活方式所吸引。

One of the reasons they are starting to get attracted is, those people who don’t like the changes that happened in the West in the last 40 years look to Russia and see a country where not only they haven’t happened, but they haven’t happened because people don’t want them to happen.

他们开始被吸引的原因之一是，那些不喜欢西方过去 40 年发生的变化的人把目光投向俄罗斯，看到一个国家不仅没有发生这些变化，而且还没有发生，因为人们不希望这些变化发生。

It’s not seen as a failure.

这并不被视为失败。

It’s more of a conscious, active decision.

这更多的是一个有意识的、积极的决定。

MAÇÃES: Of course, all of Tolstoy, all of Dostoyevsky, even the smaller 19th century writers more than 20th century.

马切斯：当然，包括所有托尔斯泰、所有陀思妥耶夫斯基，甚至包括 19 世纪比 20 世纪更小的作家。

Russia had a certain understanding of modern society and modern life that was, in many cases, deeper than the understanding in Europe because they were looking at it from the outside and struggling with it.

俄罗斯对现代社会和现代生活有一定的理解，在很多情况下，这种理解比欧洲的理解更深，因为他们从外部看待它并与之斗争。

You see that in all of 19th century Russian literature.

你在所有 19 世纪的俄罗斯文学中都能看到这一点。

On things under- and overrated

关于被低估和高估的事情

MAÇÃES: Sure.

马切斯：当然。

MAÇÃES: Overrated.

马切斯：被高估了。

MAÇÃES: He was essentially someone who lived in the past, who was born in a different world and never quite adapted to the new world.

MAÇÉS：他本质上是一个生活在过去的人，出生在不同的世界，从未完全适应新世界。

MAÇÃES: No, I don’t think so.

MAÇÉS：不，我不这么认为。

You can try, and some people are trying in Poland, in Hungary, but it doesn’t have the ability to change the existing order.

你可以尝试，有些人在波兰、匈牙利正在尝试，但它没有能力改变现有的秩序。

MAÇÃES: I would say underrated because I think that it’s never enough to love Naipaul.

马切斯：我想说被低估了，因为我认为爱奈保尔是永远不够的。

You can’t do enough of it.

你做得还不够。

I think people rate him very highly, but if you can rate him a little bit higher, all the better.

我认为人们对他的评价很高，但如果你能给他更高一点的评价，那就更好了。

MAÇÃES: Literally, almost everything, but I will go with the masses and say that the best novel is A Bend in the River.

MAÇÉS：从字面上看，几乎所有内容，但我会随大众而说，最好的小说是《河湾》。

Then the three books on India, nonfiction mixed with fiction, I always keep going back to.

然后是关于印度的三本书，非小说与小说混合在一起，我总是不断地回顾。

MAÇÃES: Again, I think is more and more highly rated, but I would encourage to rate him even higher.

MAÇÉS：同样，我认为他的评价越来越高，但我鼓励对他的评价更高。

Yes, a brilliant filmmaker.

是的，一位出色的电影制片人。

MAÇÃES: Yes.

马切斯：是的。

A big theme in Hitchcock is the hidden pathologies of modern life.

希区柯克的一个重要主题是现代生活中隐藏的病态。

The psychoanalytical repressions, and repetitions, and obsessions or fixations, which in fact destroy our life.

精神分析的压抑、重复、痴迷或固着，实际上摧毁了我们的生活。

You’re caught in a pattern of repetition, and you cannot get out of it while life passes you by.

你陷入了一种重复的模式中，当生活从你身边流逝时，你无法摆脱它。

I think that’s a big topic.

我认为这是一个很大的话题。

I think yes, it is a very promising idea to think that Hitchcock is thinking about the contradiction between liberalism and human nature, that they don’t quite fit well together.

我认为是的，认为希区柯克正在思考自由主义与人性之间的矛盾，认为它们不太契合，这是一个非常有前途的想法。

MAÇÃES: Vertigo.

马塞斯：眩晕。

MAÇÃES: I think it’s a perfect movie.

MAÇÉS：我认为这是一部完美的电影。

Hitchcock movies, because they are so ambitious, always have mistakes, very obvious.

希区柯克的电影，因为雄心勃勃，总是有错误，非常明显。

By the way, he talks about them in, for example, in his interviews with Truffaut.

顺便说一句，他在对特吕弗的采访中谈到了这些问题。

He talks openly about the mistakes he made in this or that movie.

他公开谈论他在这部电影或那部电影中犯下的错误。

I would say Vertigo is the one where, by chance or effort, it’s very difficult to find a mistake of structure, of script, or acting, or casting, or anything really.

我想说，《迷魂记》是一部无论是偶然还是努力，都很难发现结构、剧本、表演、选角或其他任何错误的电影。

MAÇÃES: Yeah.

马塞斯：是的。

MAÇÃES: It is an extraordinary, very unusual trip.

MAÇÉS：这是一次非同寻常、非常不寻常的旅行。

I have to tell you that the first week, I hated it.

我必须告诉你，第一周，我讨厌它。

MAÇÃES: It’s a very tough place.

MAÇÉS：这是一个非常艰难的地方。

It is incredibly hot.

天气非常热。

There’s nothing to do.

无事可做。

The country is built on volcanic rocks.

这个国家建立在火山岩上。

There’s not a tree in sight.

看不见一棵树。

Everyone is smoking khat and languishing on the streets under the horrible heat.

每个人都在吸着卡塔叶，在可怕的高温下在街上受苦受难。

The prices are extraordinarily high.

价格非常高。

You would pay $500 for a hotel, but you pay $500 for a hotel not knowing exactly what you’re doing there or whether you’re enjoying it.

你愿意花 500 美元住一家酒店，但你花 500 美元住一家酒店，但你并不知道你在那里做什么，或者你是否喜欢它。

But after a while, you start to see that it is a strange and unique place, at the very least.

但过了一段时间，你就会开始发现，至少这是一个奇怪而独特的地方。

MAÇÃES: There’s the politics, all the politics that is happening there, all the geopolitics that is happening there.

MAÇÉS：有政治，那里正在发生的所有政治，那里正在发生的所有地缘政治。

Then, there are some extraordinary landscapes if you can find them.

然后，如果你能找到的话，还有一些非凡的景观。

And there’s this culture, which is a combination of Africa and the Arab world, was always a place connecting different cultures.

这种文化是非洲和阿拉伯世界的结合体，一直是连接不同文化的地方。

In the end, after two weeks, you start to feel that finally you have a place that forces you to break from your habits.

最后，两周后，你开始感觉到终于有一个地方可以迫使你打破习惯。

You cannot carry your habits there because there’s really no way to go to your local café and read a little bit.

你不能把你的习惯带到那里，因为真的没有办法去你当地的咖啡馆读一点书。

There’s no way to eat the normal food.

没有办法吃正常的食物。

It forces you to break with your normal habits, and that’s a good thing.

它迫使你打破正常的习惯，这是一件好事。

MAÇÃES: Yemeni food, I think, would be the most promising.

MAÇÉS：我认为也门食品是最有前途的。

There’s a couple of very good restaurants.

有几家非常好的餐馆。

There’s, of course, Ethiopian food.

当然，还有埃塞俄比亚美食。

But I would go to the Yemeni restaurants.

但我会去也门餐馆。

Yemeni food, I fell in love with.

也门美食，我爱上了。

MAÇÃES: It’s difficult to pick one, but maybe the best would be fly to Kashgar in China, in Xinjiang Province, and then cross the border to Pakistan, and perhaps go down all the way to Lahore and then Delhi.

马切斯：很难选择一个，但也许最好的选择是飞往中国新疆省的喀什，然后越过边境到达巴基斯坦，也许一路下降到拉合尔，然后是德里。

First of all, you will see the Pamir Mountains.

首先，你会看到帕米尔高原。

You will see a mix of different cultures, Kyrgyz, Kazakh.

你会看到不同文化的融合，吉尔吉斯语、哈萨克语。

You will make one of the classical trips, which is to go from China to India by land.

您将进行经典旅行之一，即从中国陆路前往印度。

Many people have done it by sea, but by land is a little more unique.

很多人都通过海路做到过，但陆路则更独特一些。

MAÇÃES: Yes.

马切斯：是的。

It’s so obvious.

太明显了。

It’s one of those cases where people a year ago were saying that China was brilliant because China was the anti-Trump.

这是一年前人们说中国很聪明的例子之一，因为中国是反特朗普的。

Trump has corrupted all our thinking about everything because you first think about Trump, and then you think about whatever you’re supposed to be thinking or talking about.

特朗普破坏了我们对一切的所有想法，因为你首先想到的是特朗普，然后你想到了你应该思考或谈论的任何事情。

That was one example.

这就是一个例子。

It was very clear to me that China was making lots of mistakes.

我很清楚中国犯了很多错误。

Now I think everyone agrees on this, even the Chinese authorities, which are openly talking about self-correcting and going in a slightly different path, which, if you know the Chinese regime, it’s a big deal when this is all out there in the open.

现在我认为每个人都同意这一点，甚至是中国当局，他们正在公开谈论自我纠正并走一条略有不同的道路，如果你了解中国政权，那么当这一切都公开时，这是一件大事。

They made lots of mistakes in terms of pushing too hard, in terms of not understanding the countries they were dealing with, their culture, and really creating problems almost everywhere, from Australia to India to Europe to the US.

他们犯了很多错误，比如过于用力，不理解他们所面对的国家、他们的文化，并在几乎所有地方制造问题，从澳大利亚到印度，从欧洲到美国。

There isn’t a single place where they are not in a worse positon now than they were two years ago.

他们现在的处境无一不比两年前更糟糕。

MAÇÃES: Probably not.

马切斯：可能不会。

By northwest, you mean Xinjiang?

你说的西北是指新疆吗？

MAÇÃES: Yes, I talk about that in the book.

MAÇÉS：是的，我在书中谈到了这一点。

I talk about the contradiction between what has really become a surveillance state in Xinjiang.

我讲的是新疆真正成为监视状态之间的矛盾。

I could see that myself, but it really doesn’t matter because if you’re a foreigner, you’re going to feel the brunt of it as much.

我自己也能看到这一点，但这并不重要，因为如果你是外国人，你也会感受到同样的冲击。

I look, let us say, vaguely Turkic, so I could certainly be from Central Asia.

可以说，我看起来有点像突厥人，所以我肯定来自中亚。

I guess the Chinese would think that, so I was stopped constantly and interrogated.

我猜中国人也会这么想，所以我不断被拦住审问。

My papers would be checked.

我的证件会被检查。

I could see that, personally.

我个人可以看到这一点。

I think I could look a bit Uighur.

我想我可以看起来有点维吾尔族。

The problem is, how do you build the connectivity that you want to build if you have this problem in Xinjiang?

问题是，如果新疆存在这个问题，如何建立你想要建立的互联互通？

I think the Chinese are approaching it by breaking Xinjiang in separate parts, one in the south, where the Uighur minority would be isolated and controlled, and one in the north, which is becoming less and less Uighur, more and more Han.

我认为中国人正在通过将新疆分成不同的部分来实现这一目标，一个在南部，维吾尔少数民族将被孤立和控制，一个在北部，维吾尔族越来越少，汉族越来越多。

In that sense, it could be possible because the connections going through Urumqi to Kazakhstan are in working order, simply because the Han have taken control over Urumqi.

从这个意义上说，这是可能的，因为通过乌鲁木齐到哈萨克斯坦的连接正常，仅仅因为汉族已经控制了乌鲁木齐。

Urumqi feels like a city transforming itself, growing very, very fast, not at all abandoned by Chinese authorities.

乌鲁木齐感觉就像一座正在自我转型的城市，发展得非常非常快，完全没有被中国当局抛弃。

Are we seeing a repeat of that?

我们会看到这样的情况重演吗？

Or is it going to burn and crash the Chinese economy, or slow down?

或者说中国经济会被烧毁、崩溃，或者放缓？

There will be too much debt, too many white elephants, and the region will continue to be a kind of chaos.

债务太多，白象太多，该地区将继续陷入混乱。

MAÇÃES: No. I think it’s almost inevitable that it will be seen as a success because the structural force of China’s rise is so strong, it will, in one way or another, change the world as we know it.

马切斯：不。我认为这几乎不可避免地会被视为成功，因为中国崛起的结构性力量是如此强大，它将以某种方式改变我们所知道的世界。

I think Xi Jinping has set things up in a way that all those changes are going to be attributed to the Belt and Road, even though we know very well that without the Belt and Road, there would be pretty much the same, perhaps a little less organized.

我认为习近平的安排是，所有这些变化都将归因于“一带一路”，尽管我们很清楚，如果没有“一带一路”，一切都会大同小异，也许组织性会稍差一些。

It is also a public relations and a marketing coup in the sense that the changes that are coming anyway are going to be attributed to his initiative.

这也是一次公共关系和营销妙招，因为无论如何即将发生的变化都将归功于他的倡议。

I think he is thinking about things in those terms.

我认为他正在用这些方式思考事情。

There is no way that China is going to disappear or go back to its size and importance of 40 years ago.

中国不可能消失，也不可能回到40年前的规模和重要性。

That’s out of the question.

这是不可能的。

MAÇÃES: I think China will run the politics of a number of countries.

马切斯：我认为中国将掌控许多国家的政治。

The question is, who are the candidates for that?

问题是，谁是该项目的候选人？

I don’t think Australia is top of the list, but I think there will be countries that will be essentially run from Beijing.

我不认为澳大利亚名列前茅，但我认为有些国家基本上将由北京管理。

By the way, I should say that’s, of course, what happened in the last 70 years with a number of countries that were run from Washington.

顺便说一句，我应该说，这当然是过去 70 年来华盛顿统治下的许多国家所发生的事情。

MAÇÃES: We have to see about what is happening in Pakistan.

马切斯：我们必须看看巴基斯坦正在发生什么。

Pakistan is difficult to control, but in some respects, China has really penetrated Pakistani politics and society and the civil service.

巴基斯坦很难控制，但在某些方面，中国确实渗透到了巴基斯坦的政治社会和公务员队伍中。

Then a number of countries in central Asia.

然后是中亚一些国家。

Perhaps Southeast Asia countries are less conflict ridden, and so in that sense, perhaps easier to control by China.

也许东南亚国家的冲突较少，因此从这个意义上说，也许更容易被中国控制。

Then, of course, a number of African countries where that is ongoing and becoming very obvious.

当然，在一些非洲国家，这种情况正在进行中并且变得非常明显。

What does the equilibrium to that process look like?

该过程的平衡是什么样的？

That the overseas communities rebel and don’t cooperate at all?

海外社群反叛，根本不合作？

That they become a kind of fifth column where they live?

他们成为他们居住的地方的第五纵队？

That China gives up on this effort?

中国会放弃这一努力吗？

What’s going to happen?

会发生什么？

MAÇÃES: That’s one of the very good examples of why we live in a world that is heading towards new and dangerous fronts of conflict.

马切斯：这是一个很好的例子，说明了为什么我们生活在一个正在走向新的、危险的冲突前沿的世界。

I think this is a very serious problem.

我认为这是一个非常严重的问题。

China will not give up on its overseas citizens.

中国不会放弃海外公民。

They have obligations towards the motherland.

他们对祖国有义务。

On the other hand, we see already very strong reaction against this in the West, which, by the way, will feed into xenophobic tendencies in the West itself.

另一方面，我们已经看到西方对此做出了非常强烈的反应，顺便说一句，这将助长西方本身的仇外倾向。

Very quickly, people will start to assume that every Chinese is working for the Chinese state.

很快，人们就会开始认为每个中国人都在为中国政府工作。

I think, by the way — make a parenthesis here — that we’ll see some of the same dynamics in the case of India.

我认为，顺便说一句——“这里加一个括号”——我们会在印度的例子中看到一些相同的动态。

Perhaps not as acute — India is a democracy and has rule of law.

也许没有那么尖锐——“印度是一个民主国家，实行法治。”

But what I found out in my recent visit to India is that India likes this way of thinking about the diaspora and is trying to apply it to its own diaspora.

但我最近访问印度时发现，印度喜欢这种看待侨民的方式，并试图将其应用到自己的侨民身上。

So it’s a world where borders are becoming very diffuse, where perhaps countries are becoming a bit footloose, like multinationals.

因此，这是一个边界变得非常分散的世界，也许国家变得有点自由，就像跨国公司一样。

A country like Russia or like China, in some respects, doesn’t stop at the borders anymore.

像俄罗斯或中国这样的国家，在某些方面，不再停留在边界上。

It has stakes.

它有赌注。

It has participations in other countries.

它在其他国家也有参与。

China has a 20 percent stake in Djibouti, and it has an 80 percent stake in the Chinese diaspora.

中国在吉布提拥有20%的股份，在海外华人中拥有80%的股份。

When you look at a country, it is a combination, a diagram of different stakes all over the world, and not an organized national community within borders.

当你观察一个国家时，它是一个组合，是世界各地不同利害关系的图表，而不是境内有组织的国家共同体。

This is the world we’re heading to, which is world ripe for conflict of all kinds.

这就是我们即将走向的世界，这个世界容易发生各种冲突。

MAÇÃES: There’s a Sichuan restaurant just around the corner when I was coming in.

MAÇÉS：我进来时，拐角处就有一家川菜馆。

That would be my choice.

那将是我的选择。

It’s certainly the one where I can order almost everything, and I’m going to like everything.

这当然是我几乎可以订购所有东西的地方，而且我会喜欢所有东西。

That doesn’t happen with many regional cuisines in China.

中国的许多地方美食都不会发生这种情况。

MAÇÃES: That’s what’s happening now.

MAÇÉS：这就是现在正在发生的事情。

They are taking new technological transformations with an appetite that we no longer have in the West.

他们正在以我们西方不再有的胃口进行新的技术变革。

Say, self-driving cars.

比如说自动驾驶汽车。

I’m pretty sure they will be fully operational in China before they are here or in Europe, in part because the strength of the Chinese state and its ability to go against people who will suffer from these transformations is much higher.

我非常确定它们会在来到这里或欧洲之前在中国全面运作，部分原因是中国政府的实力及其对抗那些将遭受这些转型之苦的人们的能力要高得多。

Take European countries.

以欧洲国家为例。

They are captured by special interests that will make sure these sorts of transformations don’t come about.

他们被特殊利益所俘获，这将确保此类转变不会发生。

We’ve seen that in Europe with Uber being banned everywhere increasingly.

我们已经看到，在欧洲，Uber 越来越多地被禁止。

Also, there’s a certain appetite that comes deeper from the Chinese psyche and has to do with, “It’s our turn.

此外，中国人内心深处有一种欲望，与“轮到我们了”有关。

It’s our turn to use technology to change the world.” They are entirely in love with that idea, and we don’t have it anymore.

现在轮到我们利用技术改变世界了。”他们完全爱上了这个想法，而我们已经不再有这个想法了。

MAÇÃES: My impression, talking to them and looking around in Beijing and Beijing Silicon Valley, is that they are very creative.

MAÇÉS：通过与他们交谈以及环顾北京和北京硅谷，我的印象是他们非常有创造力。

Don’t assume that, because society is an authoritarian society of some kind, that that authoritarianism is present everywhere.

不要因为社会是某种专制社会就认为专制主义无处不在。

There are elements of Chinese life where the force of the Chinese state is not present at all.

中国人生活的某些方面根本不存在中国政府的力量。

One obvious one that has been commented recently by critical voices in China is, for example, sexual life.

最近中国批评声音评论的一个明显问题就是性生活。

It’s not true of every dictatorship that people are left alone to organize their sexual lives as they want, but in China they are.

并不是每个独裁国家都允许人们按照自己的意愿安排自己的性生活，但在中国却是这样。

There is no control over that, which has helped the regime in some ways.

对此无法控制，这在某种程度上帮助了该政权。

Even an authoritarian regime has to give people freedom in some areas, so that they can have rewarding lives without asking for more.

即使是独裁政权，也必须在某些方面给予人们自由，让他们过上美好的生活，而不要求更多。

I think technology is also an area where the state wants people to break rules, to go ahead, to improvise, to be creative.

我认为技术也是国家希望人们打破规则、勇往直前、即兴发挥、发挥创造力的领域。

I even wonder sometimes whether the fact that other areas are closed to human initiative doesn’t, in fact, increase the willingness to do new things in the areas where it is possible.

有时我什至想知道，其他领域对人类主动性关闭的事实是否实际上并没有增加在可能的领域做新事情的意愿。

Human effort is diverted to those areas and concentrated in those areas.

人类的努力被转移到这些领域并集中在这些领域。

MAÇÃES: Exactly.

马切斯：确实如此。

I think we’ll see a bit of that in the case of the tech community in China.

我认为我们会在中国科技界看到一些这样的情况。

MAÇÃES: The politics is wonderful.

MAÇÉS：政治很棒。

For a European, I have to say — almost everyone in Europe would laugh or be shocked when I say this — but in the end, you want a democracy to be rough and dirty and full of nonsense as long as there is nonsense on the other side to counter it.

对于一个欧洲人来说，我不得不说，“当我这么说时，几乎所有欧洲人都会笑或感到震惊”，但最终，你希望民主制度是​​粗暴、肮脏、充满废话的，只要对方有废话来对抗它。

I just see an openness of American politics, whereas European politics — everything is predetermined, everything is preset.

我只是看到美国政治的开放性，而欧洲政治 ——一切都是预定的，一切都是预设的。

It’s already been determined what you should say and how you should say it.

你应该说什么以及如何说已经确定了。

In the end, of course, European commentators and politicians complain about Trump, but they are following American politics, perhaps spending two or three hours of their days watching American politics.

当然，最终欧洲评论员和政客会抱怨特朗普，但他们正在关注美国政治，也许每天会花两三个小时观看美国政治。

They’re not watching German politics.

他们没有关注德国政治。

So again, tell me why this is so bad.

再次告诉我为什么这如此糟糕。

MAÇÃES: No. I was going to say Silicon Valley next.

MAÇÉS：不。我接下来要说的是硅谷。

But politics is important because if you don’t have that at the center of a society, which is, in the end, the state — if you don’t have that there, you are not going to have it anywhere else.

但政治很重要，因为如果你没有把政治置于社会的中心，也就是最终的国家——如果你没有它，你就不会在其他地方拥有它。

You need a bit of that in politics and I would always start with that.

在政治上你需要一些这样的东西，我总是会以此开始。

Silicon Valley — maybe I don’t know enough.

硅谷 — 也许我了解得还不够多。

In my recent visit, I saw, of course, two or three very exciting companies that are doing stuff that is not done anywhere in the world, so I wouldn’t be critical of the Valley.

当然，在我最近的访问中，我看到了两三个非常令人兴奋的公司，它们正在做世界上任何地方都没有做过的事情，所以我不会批评硅谷。

It’s just you don’t see the same spirit that was there 30 years ago and that created the Valley itself.

只是你看不到 30 年前创造硅谷的精神。

Lots of people who know how it was 30 years ago tell me this.

很多了解三十年前情况的人都告诉我这一点。

MAÇÃES: About Canada?

MAÇÉS：关于加拿大？

MAÇÃES: I don’t think I understand anything about Canada, Tyler.

MAÇÉS：泰勒，我想我对加拿大一无所知。

MAÇÃES: Canada is one of those countries that, I have to confess, I find difficult to fit in my play of world history.

马切斯：我必须承认，加拿大是我发现很难融入我的世界历史游戏的国家之一。

I don’t see what is the role that Canada is playing in the transformations we’ve been talking about.

我不明白加拿大在我们一直在谈论的转型中扮演什么角色。

So, if some of the listeners can get back to me on that .

所以，如果一些听众能就此回复我。

.

。

.

。

MAÇÃES: Something like that.

MAÇÉS：类似的事情。

Or maybe it’s a critical voice of the US, but it’s a critical voice with which you can relate, almost like your alter ego because it is in so many respects like you, but always looking for the areas where it is not like you.

或者也许这是美国的批评声音，但这是一个你可以与之产生共鸣的批评声音，几乎就像你的另一个自我，因为它在很多方面与你相似，但总是在寻找与你不同的领域。

Maybe it plays an interesting role in that respect.

也许它在这方面发挥着有趣的作用。

But then again, my impression of Canada is that it changes so dramatically from political cycle to political cycle because with Harper, you had, in fact, an extreme version of an American neoconservative.

但话又说回来，我对加拿大的印象是，它从一个政治周期到另一个政治周期都发生了如此巨大的变化，因为哈珀实际上是美国新保守主义的极端版本​​。

MAÇÃES: In the end, I guess not.

MAÇÉS：最后，我想不会。

A little bit like the political changes in some European countries.

有点像欧洲一些国家的政治变革。

There is an organized system, which is stable.

有一个有组织的体系，而且是稳定的。

The changes are, to some extent, rhetorical.

从某种程度上来说，这些变化只是口头上的。

MAÇÃES: I am very optimistic.

MAÇÉS：我非常乐观。

The numbers speak for themselves.

数字不言而喻。

There’s some countries there are the fastest-growing countries in the world.

有些国家是世界上增长最快的国家。

There’s an industrial revolution happening in Ethiopia that you’ve been talking about.

您一直在谈论的埃塞俄比亚正在发生一场工业革命。

In fact, in terms of geopolitics, there’s a lot happening.

事实上，就地缘政治而言，正在发生很多事情。

It may seem that that could pose some risks.

这似乎可能会带来一些风险。

But if you start from the presupposition that they have serious political problems that haven’t been solved yet, the fact that there’s a movement in the relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea or Somalia, or possibly the recognition of Somaliland — all that seems to be positive.

但如果你从这样的假设开始：他们有尚未解决的严重政治问题，埃塞俄比亚与厄立特里亚或索马里之间的关系发生了变化，或者可能承认索马里兰——所有这些似乎都是积极的。

It just shows that there’s energy there.

它只是表明那里有能量。

There’s finally an internal ability that doesn’t come from the outside to solve some of the problems that go back to colonial times.

终于有了一种非来自外部的内部能力来解决一些可以追溯到殖民时代的问题。

On the Bruno Maçães production function

关于 Bruno Maçães 生产函数

MAÇÃES: Yes.

马切斯：是的。

MAÇÃES: You try to get a job where it doesn’t feel like you’re not doing what you are supposed to do if you actually get informed about Russia and China and what is happening all over the world.

MAÇÉS：如果你真正了解俄罗斯和中国以及世界各地正在发生的事情，那么你会尝试找到一份不会让你感觉自己没有做你应该做的事情的工作。

That’s also part of my day job.

这也是我日常工作的一部分。

Then I try to make sure that I have enough hours during the day to do the other things I like, like write and travel and talk to people.

然后我努力确保白天有足够的时间去做我喜欢的其他事情，比如写作、旅行和与人交谈。

Those two things would help.

这两件事会有帮助。

MAÇÃES: Looking at my past experience, I had a job for a few years in Berlin in a very unusual university where I could decide the courses that I would teach.

MAÇÉS：回顾我过去的经历，我在柏林一所非常不寻常的大学工作了几年，在那里我可以决定我要教授的课程。

So I taught Darwin.

所以我教了达尔文。

I taught Copernicus.

我教过哥白尼。

I taught economics, even though I don’t have a PhD in economics.

我教经济学，尽管我没有经济学博士学位。

That was wonderful.

那太棒了。

I think if universities could do that, those three years were the three years I learned the most in my life, just being forced to teach something where you are completely uncomfortable.

我想如果大学能做到这一点，那三年就是我一生中学到最多的三年，只是被迫教一些你完全不舒服的东西。

It’s one thing to try to learn something where you’re uncomfortable, but think about teaching it.

尝试学习一些你不舒服的东西是一回事，但要考虑教它。

That was a very intense and productive time of my life.

那是我一生中非常紧张且富有成效的时期。

More recently, having been in government does open some doors.

最近，进入政府确实打开了一些大门。

You can have some very interesting conversations with people who are actually in the rooms.

您可以与实际在房间里的人进行一些非常有趣的对话。

That also has been a very formative experience for me, especially in .

这对我来说也是一次非常有影响力的经历，尤其是在.

.

。

.

。

MAÇÃES: ’13 to ’15.

马切斯：'13 至 '15。

MAÇÃES: Twitter actually plays a role now.

MAÇÉS：Twitter 现在确实发挥了作用。

When people that I trust recommend a book, I usually follow through.

当我信任的人推荐一本书时，我通常会坚持下去。

I read less.

我读书少了。

I reread a lot these days.

这些天我重读了很多。

Go back to books that I liked and try to understand them better.

返回我喜欢的书并尝试更好地理解它们。

Then keep an eye on the things coming out on the subjects that I’m particularly interested in.

然后留意我特别感兴趣的主题上发生的事情。

I’m sure I won’t miss any book that is about China — where China is going for example — and make a selection.

我确信我不会错过任何一本关于中国的书——比如中国要去哪里——并进行选择。

It’s pretty easy to do, I think.

我认为这很容易做到。

The great thing about having read a few tens of thousands of books is that — I’m sure you had this experience — you get pretty good at identifying a book that you think is worthwhile, so that you stop at page 10 and you are absolutely sure you have no regrets about it.

读过几万本书的好处在于 —— 我相信你有过这样的经历 —— 你很擅长识别一本你认为值得的书，所以当你读到第10页时，你绝对确信你不会后悔。

MAÇÃES: I’m trying to become a full-time writer and a very productive one.

MAÇÉS：我正在努力成为一名全职作家，并且是一名非常高效的作家。

I started late, but I’d like to, in the next 15 years, let us say, to write 15 books.

我起步较晚，但我想在接下来的 15 年里，比如说，写 15 本书。

Whether this is going to work out, you’ll never know.

这是否会成功，你永远不会知道。

Something could come along, but that is the default position right now.

可能会出现一些情况，但这是目前的默认位置。

MAÇÃES: No, but I don’t plan to write 15 versions of this book.

MAÇÉS：不，但我不打算写这本书的 15 个版本。

I’m going to write on technology.

我要写一篇关于技术的文章。

I want to write on America.

我想写关于美国的文章。

I want to write on the future of Europe.

我想写关于欧洲的未来。

I want to potentially try to write one or two novels.

我想尝试写一两本小说。

That’s the plan.

这就是计划。

Again, I’m not sure it’s going to work, but that’s the plan.

再说一次，我不确定它是否会起作用，但这就是计划。

The more I talk about it, the more pressure I have, the better.

我说得越多，压力越大越好。

MAÇÃES: Thank you.

马切斯：谢谢。

It’s a pleasure, Tyler.

很高兴，泰勒。