Brian Winter on Brazil, Argentina, and the Future of Latin America (Ep. 216)
Thank you to listener Dennis Sheehan for sponsoring this transcript.
感谢听众 Dennis Sheehan 赞助这份文字记录。
Hello, everyone, and welcome back to Conversations with Tyler.
大家好，欢迎回到《与泰勒对话》。
Today I’m chatting with Brian Winter.
今天我正在与布莱恩·温特聊天。
Let me just give you the introduction from Brian himself.
让我向您介绍一下Brian本人的介绍。
He’s the editor-in-chief of Americas Quarterly and a long-standing analyst of Latin American politics, with more than 20 years following the region.
他是《美洲季刊》的主编，也是拉丁美洲政治的长期分析师，对该地区有 20 多年的关注。
He’s lived in Brazil, Argentina, and Mexico.
他住在巴西、阿根廷和墨西哥。
He was a correspondent for Reuters.
他是路透社的记者。
He also has been vice president of policy for the Americas Society and Council of the Americas.
他还曾担任美洲协会和美洲委员会的政策副主席。
He’s been called the best foreign expert on Brazil of this moment.
他被称为目前巴西问题上最好的外国专家。
He’s the author of several books, including Why Soccer Matters, a New York Times bestseller, co-authored with Brazilian soccer legend Pelé; The Accidental President of Brazil, co-authored with President Fernando Henrique Cardoso; and Long After Midnight, a memoir about trying and failing to learn to tango in Argentina.
他是多本书的作者，其中包括与巴西足球传奇人物贝利合着的《纽约时报》畅销书《为什么足球很重要》； 《巴西的意外总统》，与费尔南多·恩里克·卡多佐总统合着； 《午夜之后很久》是一本关于在阿根廷尝试学习探戈但失败的回忆录。
He’s a regular contributor to television and radio, a host of the Americas Quarterly podcast, and a prolific barbecuer and chef.
他是电视和广播的定期撰稿人、美洲季刊播客的主持人，也是一位多产的烧烤师和厨师。
I very much enjoy following him on Twitter @BrazilBrian.
我非常喜欢在 Twitter 上关注他@BrazilBrian。
Brian, welcome.
布莱恩，欢迎。
It’s such an honor, Tyler.
这是一种荣幸，泰勒。
Thank you for having me.
谢谢你有我。
I have so many questions.
我有很多问题。
Let me start with a simple one.
让我从一个简单的开始。
Why is Brazil stuck?
巴西为何陷入困境？
Oh, my goodness, I take a longer view on Brazil.
哦，天哪，我对巴西的看法更加长远。
I’ve been following the country for almost 20 years now, and I’ve seen progress.
我关注这个国家近20年了，我看到了进步。
This is a country that has its challenges, but it is one of the hemisphere’s most solid democracies.
这是一个面临挑战的国家，但它是西半球最坚实的民主国家之一。
It is a country that has lifted millions out of poverty over the last 20 years.
这个国家在过去20年里让数百万人摆脱了贫困。
It’s more of a middle-class country than it used to be.
与以前相比，它更像是一个中产阶级国家。
I know what you mean by stuck.
我知道你说的卡住是什么意思。
It’s an economy that doesn’t grow nearly enough.
这是一个增长还不够的经济体。
It has this political turmoil that makes headlines every now and then.
它的政治动荡时不时地成为头条新闻。
But if you take that longer view, it’s a better place than it was when I first started following it back in the 2000s.
但如果你把目光放得更长远，你会发现，现在的情况比 2000 年代我第一次开始关注它时要好。
Say they just grow at about 2 percent, which has been common lately, now that the China boom, the soya boom are over.
假设它们的增长率约为 2%，这在最近很常见，现在中国的繁荣、大豆的繁荣已经结束。
Their fertility seems to be about 1.55.
他们的生育率似乎约为1.55。
What’s the future?
未来是什么？
Don’t they just shrink and get poorer?
难道他们不是在萎缩、变得更穷吗？
We might all shrink, Tyler.
我们可能都会退缩，泰勒。
This is not a question that Brazil alone is facing.
这并不是巴西独自面临的问题。
We’re seeing it across the Western world.
我们在整个西方世界都看到了这种情况。
But the danger here is real, and it’s the same danger that faces China as well.
但这里的危险是真实存在的，而且中国也面临着同样的危险。
It’s the danger that these countries will get old before they get rich, and this is an issue we’re seeing across much of the developing world.
这些国家面临未富先老的危险，这是我们在许多发展中国家看到的一个问题。
What’s the future of migration into Brazil?
移民巴西的未来如何？
The US might be below replacement rates, but we can get a lot of the world’s best immigrants.
美国可能低于替代率，但我们可以得到很多世界上最优秀的移民。
Brazil doesn’t seem very interested in recreating its early 20th-century traditions when it took in people from across the world.
巴西似乎对重建 20 世纪早期吸引来自世界各地的人们的传统不太感兴趣。
Why not?
为什么不呢？
Is that going to change?
这种情况会改变吗？
Is it just people coming from Paraguay?
只有来自巴拉圭的人吗？
What’s the future of migration to Brazil?
移民巴西的前景如何？
As you rightly point out, Tyler, it’s been a long time since Brazil was a real destination for immigrants.
泰勒，正如您正确指出的那样，巴西已经很长时间没有成为真正的移民目的地了。
I’m actually working on a book about São Paulo right now and revisiting a lot of this history, when they had what they called the Immigrant Inn.
事实上，我现在正在写一本关于圣保罗的书，并重温这段历史，当时他们有所谓的移民旅馆。
It was in São Paulo, and it received thousands of immigrants at a time, mostly from Italy, also from Spain.
它位于圣保罗，一次接收了数千名移民，其中大部分来自意大利，也来自西班牙。
Brazil also has the world’s largest Japanese population outside Japan.
巴西还拥有世界上除日本以外最多的日本人口。
So many people came there from the old Ottoman Empire — today Syria and Lebanon — that the mayors of São Paulo over the years have had names like Kassab, Haddad, Malouf.
如此多的人来自古老的奥斯曼帝国（今天的叙利亚和黎巴嫩），以至于多年来圣保罗的市长都有卡萨布、哈达德、马卢夫等名字。
It does have that tradition of immigration, but that ended really with the Great Depression and the crash in coffee prices back when Brazil was producing as much as three-quarters of the world’s coffee.
它确实有移民的传统，但这种传统随着大萧条和咖啡价格暴跌而结束，当时巴西的咖啡产量占世界的四分之三。
It was a real blow to them and changed everything.
这对他们来说是一个真正的打击，改变了一切。
You’re right, it’s not a big receiver of immigrants today, although there are about 500,000 Venezuelans who’ve come there in recent years, fleeing the collapse of the socialist dictatorship there.
你是对的，尽管近年来有大约 50 万委内瑞拉人为了逃离那里社会主义独裁政权的崩溃而来到这里，但如今它并不是一个大的移民接收国。
It has an equally sized population of people from Bolivia, so it still receives not as much as it otherwise might.
它拥有同样数量的玻利维亚人口，因此它收到的收入仍然没有原来那么多。
I have to say that Portuguese is part of the challenge here.
我不得不说葡萄牙语是这里挑战的一部分。
It’s a language that not that many people know.
这是一种没有多少人知道的语言。
For example, even for the Venezuelans, that’s out of a diaspora of 8 million.
例如，即使对于委内瑞拉人来说，这也只是 800 万侨民中的一个。
Most of them have gone to other Spanish-speaking countries, but the ones that have gone to Brazil have been pretty happy with their decision.
他们中的大多数人去了其他西班牙语国家，但去了巴西的人对他们的决定非常满意。
Why is Brazilian agriculture not stuck?
巴西农业为何没有陷入困境？
Productivity there seems to be very high.
那里的生产力似乎非常高。
What’s Brazil doing right in this one area?
巴西在这一领域做了什么？
Having a privileged location in the tropics and being able to have two harvests a year sometimes because of the climate and the soil — that helps.
在热带地区拥有优越的地理位置，并且由于气候和土壤的原因有时能够一年两次收成——这很有帮助。
But plenty of countries have that.
但很多国家都有这样的情况。
Brazil’s done something unusual.
巴西做了一些不寻常的事情。
There’s an old expression — thankfully a bit out of date now — that held that Brazil was the most efficient farming country in the world until goods left the farm.
有一个古老的表达方式——“幸好现在有点过时了”——认为在货物离开农场之前，巴西是世界上效率最高的农业国家。
What that was a reference to was the fact that the roads, infrastructure, rail, ports, and so on were not really up to par.
这是指道路、基础设施、铁路、港口等都没有真正达到标准。
But there has been an improvement.
但已经有了改进。
Not enough, but again, this is another area where, over the last 20 years, this soy that used to travel over two-lane or even one-lane mud roads — at least now it’s paved in a lot of places.
这还不够，但再说一次，这是另一个地区，在过去的 20 年里，这种大豆曾经在两车道甚至单车道的泥路上行驶 - 至少现在很多地方都铺了它。
Some of these rail links are also improving.
其中一些铁路线路也在改善。
This is another area where, I think, if you take that longer-term perspective, things are getting a little bit better.
我认为，这是另一个领域，如果你从长远的角度来看，事情会变得更好一些。
What’s the economic geography of Brazil going to look like?
巴西的经济地理会是什么样子？
All the wealth near Mato Grosso and the north just very, very poor?
马托格罗索州和北部地区的所有财富都非常非常贫穷？
Or the north empties out?
还是北方空了？
How’s that going to work?
怎么样？
There used to be some modest degree of balance.
过去存在某种程度的平衡。
That’s true.
这是真的。
Most of the population in Brazil and the economic center, for sure, was in the southeast.
当然，巴西的大部分人口和经济中心都在东南部。
That means, really, São Paulo state, which is about a quarter of Brazil’s population but roughly a third of its GDP.
这实际上意味着圣保罗州，该州人口约占巴西的四分之一，但国内生产总值约占巴西的三分之一。
Rio as well, and the state of Minas Gerais, which has a name that tells its history.
还有里约热内卢和米纳斯吉拉斯州，它的名字就讲述了它的历史。
That means “general mines” in Portuguese.
这在葡萄牙语中意为“一般矿山”。
That’s the area where a lot of the gold came out of in the 18th and 19th centuries.
18 世纪和 19 世纪，这里出产了大量黄金。
That’s gone now, so it’s not as much of an economic pull.
现在这种情况已经消失了，所以它对经济的拉动作用不大。
You’re right, Tyler, though, that a lot of the real boom right now, the action, is in places like Mato Grosso, which is in the region of Brazil called the Central West.
不过，泰勒，你是对的，目前真正的繁荣和行动都发生在像马托格罗索这样的地方，它位于巴西的中西部地区。
That’s soy country.
那是大豆之国。
I’m from Texas, and Mato Grosso is virtually indistinguishable from Texas these days.
我来自德克萨斯州，如今马托格罗索州与德克萨斯州几乎没有什么区别。
It’s hot.
很热。
It’s flat.
它是平坦的。
The crop, like I said, is soy.
正如我所说，农作物是大豆。
There’s cattle ranching as well.
还有养牛场。
Even the music — Brazil, as others have noted, has gone from being the country of bossa nova and the samba in the 1970s to being the country of sertanejo today.
就连音乐——正如其他人指出的那样，巴西也从 20 世纪 70 年代的巴萨诺瓦和桑巴舞之国变成了今天的塞塔内霍之国。
Sertanejo is a Brazilian cousin of country music with accordions, but it’s sung by people — men mostly — in jeans, big belt buckles, and cowboy hats.
Sertanejo 是巴西乡村音乐与手风琴的近亲，但它的演唱者是穿着牛仔裤、戴着大皮带扣、戴着牛仔帽的人们——大多数是男性。
They’re importing that — not only that economic model but that lifestyle as well.
他们正在引进——不仅是经济模式，还有生活方式。
What is the great Brazilian music of today?
当今最伟大的巴西音乐是什么？
MPB is dead, right?
MPB已经死了，对吧？
So, what should someone listen to?
那么，人们应该听什么？
I have a guilty love for sertanejo.
我对塞塔内霍有一种罪恶的爱。
Again, I’ve revealed myself as a Texan to your listeners, who likes the classics like George Strait and Clint Black and some of the big names from the ’80s and ’90s.
我再次向听众展示了我自己是德克萨斯人，他们喜欢乔治·海峡和克林特·布莱克等经典音乐以及 80 年代和 90 年代的一些大牌音乐人。
Sertanejo is a bit different.
塞塔内霍有点不同。
If hip-hop is your thing, Anitta (two t’s) is the big artist of the moment.
如果你喜欢嘻哈音乐，Anitta（两个t）就是当下的大艺术家。
To the despair of some, that culture today — perhaps because it is somewhat derivative of country music in the United States — is not taking over the world in the same way that Jean Gilberto and Gilberto Gil and so many others did in the 1950s and 1960s.
让一些人感到绝望的是，今天的这种文化——“也许是因为它在某种程度上是美国乡村音乐的衍生品”——并没有像让·吉尔伯托（Jean Gilberto）和吉尔伯托·吉尔（Gilberto Gil）以及其他许多人在 1950 年代和 1960 年代那样接管世界。
On Brazil’s dynamism — or lack thereof
论巴西的活力 ——或缺乏活力
How do you think that being a Texan makes you more optimistic about Brazil?
您认为身为德克萨斯人如何让您对巴西更加乐观？
If you would even accept the claim at all.
如果您愿意接受索赔的话。
That’s a really good question.
这是一个非常好的问题。
It certainly makes me appreciate the cowboy culture and churrasco, which is the Brazilian barbecue culture, as well.
这当然让我欣赏牛仔文化和巴西烤肉，也就是巴西的烧烤文化。
I think both places, in addition to being hot and green, are forward-looking.
我觉得这两个地方除了热门、绿色之外，还都具有前瞻性。
I came to Brazil from Argentina.
我从阿根廷来到巴西。
I lived in Argentina first.
我首先住在阿根廷。
Argentina is a country that is obsessively focused on its past.
阿根廷是一个过分关注过去的国家。
That’s a country that 100 years ago, famously, was one of the 10 richest countries in the world and today, has slipped back well into the middle of the pack somewhere in the ’60s, depending on what indicator you’re looking at.
众所周知，这个国家在 100 年前是世界上最富有的 10 个国家之一，而今天，在 60 年代的某个时候，这个国家已经滑落到中间位置，这取决于你所关注的指标。
Argentina is a tango.
阿根廷是探戈。
It’s nostalgia.
这是怀旧之情。
It’s melancholy.
这是忧郁的。
Brazil has always been about the future, sometimes to a fault.
巴西始终关注未来，但有时却是错误的。
It’s not a place where people remember precedent, where they remember lessons of history.
这不是一个人们记住先例、记住历史教训的地方。
They’re focused on the future.
他们专注于未来。
If you grew up in a place like Dallas — like I did — which was built entirely, for the most part, in the 20th century, I think there’s probably something of that that resonates with me.
如果你在达拉斯这样的地方长大——“就像我一样”——那里大部分都是在 20 世纪建成的，我想其中的某些东西可能会引起我的共鸣。
But is Brazil still looking toward the future?
但巴西还在展望未来吗？
As you know, they built Brasilia in the middle of nowhere.
如你所知，他们在荒无人烟的地方建造了巴西利亚。
Whatever you think of Brasilia, it was quite an achievement.
无论你如何看待巴西利亚，这都是一项相当大的成就。
It’s hard for me to imagine them doing that now.
我现在很难想象他们会这么做。
I’ve read that Outback Steakhouse is quite popular in Brazil.
我听说内陆牛排馆在巴西很受欢迎。
You’ve talked about rap music, derivatives of country and Western.
你谈到了说唱音乐、乡村音乐和西部音乐的衍生品。
Where’s the real future-looking, forward-looking element in Brazil?
巴西真正具有前瞻性的元素在哪里？
Where do you see it?
你在哪里看到的？
I think you see it — and this may sound a bit hokey, Tyler — but you feel it when you talk to people.
我想你已经看到了这一点——这可能听起来有点做作，泰勒——但是当你与人交谈时你会感觉到这一点。
It’s a country of smiles, of people who sometimes live just incredibly difficult lives.
这是一个充满微笑的国家，人们有时过着极其艰难的生活。
Talking about people who live in the periphery of cities like São Paulo in Brazil who spend five hours a day on a bus commuting in and out of traffic in order to work minimum wage jobs.
谈论居住在巴西圣保罗等城市外围的人们，他们每天要花五个小时乘坐公共汽车进出交通，以从事最低工资的工作。
These people enjoy life, sometimes more than, I would say, often more than the people that I live among in Westchester County just outside New York, who, I look around sometimes on the commuter train, and nobody looks happy.
这些人享受生活，有时比我住在纽约郊外威彻斯特县的人们更享受生活，我有时在通勤火车上环顾四周，没有人看起来幸福。
I don’t want to romanticize things.
我不想把事情浪漫化。
I think that you find unhappy people in Brazil too, but there’s a joy in life that people manage to seize upon, even when the economy is not doing well, perhaps because they’re accustomed to this kind of slow growth situation that we’ve been talking about.
我认为在巴西也有不快乐的人，但即使经济表现不佳，人们也能抓住生活中的乐趣，也许是因为他们习惯了我们一直在谈论的这种缓慢增长的情况。
Here’s a question from a reader, and I quote, “Does the change in the style of play of Brazil’s national soccer team over the last 20 years (more disciplined and rigorous with fewer players free to create) a result of a change in the national culture or vibe?”
这是一位读者提出的问题，我引用一下：“巴西国家足球队过去 20 年踢球风格的变化（更加纪律严明，自由创造的球员越来越少）是否是国家文化或氛围变化的结果？”
I think that Brazilians would probably tell you that, actually, the soccer team has not evolved enough.
我想巴西人可能会告诉你，实际上，足球队还没有发展得足够好。
I would gently point out — because I know that there are Brazilian listeners here who will recoil when I say this — but it has been 22 years since Brazil won the last World Cup, which is quite serious for a country that has won five World Cups over the years, more than any other country.
我想温和地指出，因为我知道，当我这么说时，有些巴西听众会退缩，但距离巴西上次赢得世界杯已经过去了 22 年，这对于一个多年来赢得五次世界杯冠军的国家来说是相当严重的，比任何其他国家都多。
There’s a real view that I hear from people in the country that, actually, part of the problem is that improvisation and talent are not enough anymore, and that Brazilian soccer really needs to professionalize.
我从巴西人那里听到了一个真实的观点，实际上，部分问题在于即兴发挥和天赋已经不够了，巴西足球确实需要职业化。
Now, they continue to produce amazing players — Neymar, Vinicius Jr., and others — but they also have another disadvantage, which is that so many more of their players these days play club soccer in Europe.
现在，他们继续培养出令人惊叹的球员——“内马尔、小维尼修斯等人”——但他们也有另一个缺点，那就是现在有太多的球员在欧洲踢俱乐部足球。
If you look back at the golden age, the age with Pelé, these were players who played almost entirely on teams within Brazil, who knew each other, and perhaps that was an advantage as well.
如果你回顾黄金时代，即贝利时代，这些球员几乎完全在巴西境内的球队踢球，他们彼此了解，也许这也是一个优势。
Do you think there’s something about the Brazilian spirit or national psyche that somehow worked better in the world of the 1950s and ’60s, where improvisation was more relevant, maybe more productive in a lot of areas?
您是否认为巴西精神或民族精神在 20 世纪 50 年代和 60 年代的世界中表现得更好，即兴创作在许多领域更有意义，也许更有成效？
Cinema — you have a movie such as Black Orpheus.
电影院 — 你有一部像《黑色奥菲斯》这样的电影。
I’m sure you know it.
我相信你知道。
Is there anything comparable today that has global force?
今天还有什么东西可以媲美具有全球影响力的东西吗？
A Brazilian movie, a something.
一部巴西电影，某事。
What would it be?
会是什么？
That’s a good question, Tyler, and to be honest, I’m at a bit of a loss, and this is something that Brazilian commentators have also seized upon.
这是一个很好的问题，泰勒，说实话，我有点不知所措，而巴西评论员也抓住了这一点。
This idea that the cool Brazil, the one that people of a certain age think of, that comes to mind — samba, the beats of bossa nova, Black Orpheus, to take the example you cited — that’s not present today.
这种想法是，某个年龄段的人想到的酷巴西，即桑巴舞、巴萨诺瓦的节拍、黑色奥菲斯，以你引用的例子为例，但今天并不存在。
There’s been a lot of soul-searching within Brazil as to why that is.
巴西国内对此进行了很多反省。
They watch, for example, the prominence that South Korea has taken on in shows like — oh gosh, what’s the one on Netflix?
例如，他们看到韩国在诸如“天啊，Netflix 上的那一出是什么？”之类的节目中占据了主导地位。
The really violent one .
真正暴力的一个。
.
。
.
。
Squid Game.
鱿鱼游戏。
Squid Game.
鱿鱼游戏。
A lot of Brazilians saw that in the cultural moment of K-pop and everything else, and said, “That used to be us.
许多巴西人在韩国流行音乐和其他一切的文化时刻看到了这一点，并说：“那曾经是我们。
What has happened to us that we’re no longer on the main stage to the degree that we were in the past?” I think some of it is that others have caught up.
我们到底出了什么问题，不再像以前那样登上主舞台了？”我认为其中一些是其他人已经赶上来的。
Then perhaps there’s a cyclical element to this as well.
那么也许这也有一个周期性因素。
I can tell you that Brazil remains a tremendously seductive place to visit.
我可以告诉你，巴西仍然是一个极具吸引力的旅游胜地。
You spend time in places like São Paulo, Rio, Salvador, and you still see echoes of that Brazil that seduced the world once upon a time and continues to do so, not necessarily as part of pop culture, but certainly to people who visit.
当你在圣保罗、里约热内卢、萨尔瓦多这样的地方度过时光时，你仍然会看到巴西的回声，巴西曾一度吸引着世界，并将继续这样做，不一定是流行文化的一部分，但对来访的人们来说肯定如此。
On crime in Brazilian cities
关于巴西城市的犯罪
How is it that you understand the current crime situation in São Paulo?
您如何了解圣保罗目前的犯罪状况？
As I’m sure you know, the murder rate has dropped a great deal, but if you actually walk on the streets, it doesn’t feel very good.
我相信你知道，谋杀率已经下降了很多，但如果你真的走在街上，感觉不太好。
In some ways, the older, more violent São Paulo seemed cleaner or to have fewer derelicts.
在某些方面，更古老、更暴力的圣保罗似乎更干净，或者被遗弃的人更少。
What’s the general framework for making sense of what’s gone on there?
理解那里发生的事情的总体框架是什么？
That’s a really perceptive question, Tyler.
这是一个非常有洞察力的问题，泰勒。
São Paulo — the crime situation there is a complex story.
圣保罗——那里的犯罪情况很复杂。
Their homicide rate has actually gone down more than 80 percent over the last 25 years.
过去 25 年来，他们的凶杀率实际上下降了 80% 以上。
It’s a tremendous achievement.
这是一项巨大的成就。
It was one of the world’s most violent — in terms of homicide — cities as recently as the late ’90s.
就在上世纪 90 年代末，它还是世界上“凶杀案”最暴力的城市之一。
That rate now is only about 5 per 100,000, which is lower than the US national average, and quite a bit lower than many US cities.
目前这一比例仅为每10万人中5人左右，低于美国全国平均水平，也比美国许多城市低很多。
But, and there is a but here —
但是，这里有一个但是 ——
There is a but.
有一个但是。
— it is a country, or city rather, where you are still much more likely to be a victim of an armed robbery, of a carjacking, to have your cell phone taken from your hands.
——在这个国家，或者更确切地说，在一个城市，你更有可能成为武装抢劫、劫车的受害者，你的手机也会被从你手中夺走。
A lot of people when they go there, either as visitors or members of the economic elite in São Paulo, choose to have armored cars, choose to not pull out their cell phone when they’re out on the street.
很多人去那里时，无论是作为游客还是圣保罗的经济精英，都会选择乘坐装甲车，在街上时选择不掏出手机。
As a matter of fact, with the spread of payment apps and Brazil’s digital currency, which is an amazing story in itself — it’s called Pix — a lot of Brazilian friends I know have stopped taking their cell phone out of the house at all because they’re afraid that either the phone will be stolen or they’ll be the victims of a kidnapping and made to empty their account.
事实上，随着支付应用程序和巴西数字货币的普及，这本身就是一个了不起的故事 ——它被称为Pix ——我认识的很多巴西朋友已经不再把手机带出家门，因为他们担心手机会被偷，或者会成为绑架的受害者并被迫清空他们的账户。
That’s a reality.
这是现实。
That’s serious.
这很严重。
I’ve been very interested in the progress that they have made on the homicide front, but when you talk to ordinary people, regular people in São Paulo, the perception is that violence has not gotten any better.
我对他们在凶杀案方面取得的进展非常感兴趣，但当你与圣保罗的普通民众交谈时，你会发现暴力行为并没有得到任何改善。
There’s another issue here, which you made reference to, which is that the street population has, by some measures, tripled in the last 10 years.
这里还有一个问题，你提到过，从某种程度上来说，街头人口在过去十年里增加了两倍。
Some of that is the pandemic, but there seem to be other factors as well.
其中一些是大流行，但似乎还有其他因素。
What do you think will happen with crime in Rio de Janeiro, the city?
您认为里约热内卢这座城市的犯罪会发生什么？
Is that even stable?
那还稳定吗？
Can it continue?
还能继续吗？
It seems something has to give.
似乎必须付出一些东西。
Rio, in some ways, is a repeat of the story that I just told about São Paulo, but without the progress from a security standpoint.
从某些方面来说，里约热内卢是我刚刚讲述的圣保罗故事的重演，但从安全角度来看却没有取得进展。
It remains very worthwhile to visit.
这里仍然非常值得参观。
It’s also an economic center, a cultural center of the country.
它也是该国的经济中心、文化中心。
There’s a lot more to these places besides just street crime.
除了街头犯罪之外，这些地方还有很多其他的事情。
But the fact is, it’s a very complicated situation.
但事实是，这是一个非常复杂的情况。
You have these groups that Brazilians call milicias, which sounds like militias, but they’re really best thought of as paramilitary groups.
这些团体被巴西人称为“民兵”，听起来像民兵，但最好将它们视为准军事团体。
These are groups that are often composed of police officers who control organized crime in vast areas of the city.
这些团体通常由警察组成，负责控制城市广大地区的有组织犯罪。
Look, it’s another area where Brazil has work to do.
看，这是巴西需要努力的另一个领域。
These are challenges that are faced all across Latin America.
这些是整个拉丁美洲面临的挑战。
One of the big stories happening in Latin America right now is this spread of organized crime, which was already bad.
目前拉丁美洲发生的重大事件之一是有组织犯罪的蔓延，这已经很糟糕了。
This has always been an issue as long as I’ve been following the region.
自从我一直关注该地区以来，这一直是一个问题。
With the doubling in the production of cocaine that we’ve seen over the last 10 years, and keeping in mind that almost all the world’s cocaine is produced in just three countries — that’s Colombia, Peru, and Bolivia — the smuggling routes lead out of those countries and touch virtually every other country in Latin America.
过去 10 年来，我们看到可卡因产量翻了一番，而且要记住，世界上几乎所有可卡因仅产自三个国家——哥伦比亚、秘鲁和玻利维亚——走私路线从这些国家出发，几乎触及拉丁美洲所有其他国家。
The illegality and organized crime that takes root around that is the source of a lot of these issues.
围绕此而生根发芽的非法行为和有组织犯罪是许多此类问题的根源。
On Brazilian race relations
论巴西种族关系
What do you think is the most significant change of mind or change of opinion you’ve had in the last 10 years about race relations in Brazil?
您认为过去 10 年来您对巴西种族关系最重大的想法或观点变化是什么？
One reads a great deal about this.
人们读了很多关于这一点的文章。
Obviously, it’s different from America, but since you’ve started, what is it you’ve changed your mind about?
显然，这与美国不同，但自从你开始以来，你改变了主意的是什么呢？
What new insights do you have now you didn’t have 10 or 20 years ago?
您现在有哪些 10 或 20 年前没有的新见解？
Race is a subject in Brazil that I always approach with humility as an American, because we, of course, have our own amply documented issues.
在巴西，种族是一个话题，作为美国人，我总是以谦逊的态度对待这个话题，因为我们当然有自己的、有充分记录的问题。
Racism in Brazil is different in some ways but similar in others.
巴西的种族主义在某些方面有所不同，但在其他方面则相似。
There has been a huge debate within Brazil about identity and the nature of Brazilian racism over the last 10 years or so.
在过去十年左右的时间里，巴西国内一直存在着关于身份和巴西种族主义本质的激烈争论。
One consequence of this, Tyler, is that the percentage of people who identify as Black or mixed race has gone way up in census data in that time.
泰勒，这样做的结果之一是，当时的人口普查数据显示，黑人或混血儿的比例大幅上升。
It’s gone from, I believe, somewhere in the upper 40s to about 56 percent today.
我相信，这个比例已经从 40% 左右上升到了今天的 56% 左右。
It’s not because Brazil became more Black or had more mixed-race people, but because people are more inclined to identify themselves with pride as being part of that group.
这并不是因为巴西的黑人人数增多或混血人口增多，而是因为人们更倾向于自豪地认为自己是该群体的一部分。
It’s all a saga that has been going on for hundreds of years that has echoes in the same history that we have here in the US, but in some ways, it happens on a bigger scale in Brazil.
这是一个已经持续了数百年的传奇故事，与我们在美国的历史相呼应，但在某些方面，它在巴西发生的规模更大。
Here’s a figure that Americans are always surprised to learn.
这是一个令美国人总是感到惊讶的数字。
Brazil imported more than 5 million people from Africa from the 16th century through 1850.
从 16 世纪到 1850 年，巴西从非洲输入了超过 500 万人。
That is more than 10 times the number of slaves that were imported into the United States.
这是进口到美国的奴隶数量的十倍多。
We’re talking about an issue that has had reverberations that in some ways are far bigger.
我们正在讨论一个在某些方面产生了更大影响的问题。
At the same time, there was always more mixing of the races in Brazil.
与此同时，巴西的比赛总是更加混合。
Segregation along racial lines was never a thing, in part because it was not feasible because there had been so much mixing.
种族隔离从来就不是一件事，部分原因是种族隔离是不可行的，因为存在着如此多的混合现象。
There was a long tradition in Brazil, especially among the elite, of claiming that there was no racism in Brazil.
巴西，尤其是精英阶层，有着声称巴西不存在种族主义的悠久传统。
I think that the country has come to grips with the fact that that’s not true, that there was racism.
我认为这个国家已经认识到事实并非如此，种族主义是存在的。
It was different from racism in the United States, but racism nonetheless.
这与美国的种族主义不同，但种族主义仍然存在。
People are grappling with that at the same time that they’re more inclined to identify themselves as Black, which is a fascinating thing to watch.
人们在努力解决这个问题的同时，他们更倾向于将自己视为黑人，这是一件令人着迷的事情。
For you, which is the most interesting ethnic small town in southern Brazil?
对您来说，巴西南部最有趣的民族小镇是哪一个？
Ethnic small town — you’re referring to like the German communities and places?
民族小镇 —— 你指的是像德国的社区和地方？
Yes.
是的。
Pomerode — somewhere like that, which for me was fascinating.
波梅罗德（Pomerode）——类似的地方，对我来说很着迷。
I’d like to hear your story of Pomerode.
我想听听你关于波梅罗迪的故事。
I have to say, my favorite example of an ethnic enclave in Brazil is actually in São Paulo.
我不得不说，我最喜欢的巴西民族飞地的例子实际上是在圣保罗。
It’s a neighborhood called Liberdade, which means freedom, means liberty.
这是一个叫做 Liberdade 的社区，意思是自由，意味着自由。
This was the pull for the Japanese community that came to Brazil starting in the 1900s.
这就是从 1900 年代开始来到巴西的日本社区的吸引力。
As I said earlier, it’s the biggest Japanese community outside Japan.
正如我之前所说，这是日本以外最大的日本社区。
They have integrated themselves exceptionally well into the country.
他们很好地融入了这个国家。
You walk through this neighborhood and you see sushi places, ramen restaurants, and then coconut water and tropical juices.
你走过这个街区，你会看到寿司店、拉面店，然后是椰子水和热带果汁。
This neighborhood is also notable for other reasons.
这个街区还因其他原因而引人注目。
Prior to becoming a Japanese neighborhood in the 17th and 18th century, the name tells it all — Liberdade.
在 17 世纪和 18 世纪成为日本社区之前，它的名字就说明了一切 —— Liberdade。
It was one of the first neighborhoods where freed slaves in São Paulo lived.
这是圣保罗获释奴隶最早居住的社区之一。
It has that whole history that is being uncovered as we speak, as part of this moment of racial awakening that I already described.
在我们说话的时候，它的整个历史正在被揭示，作为我已经描述过的种族觉醒时刻的一部分。
For me, Pomerode was so boring, it was interesting.
对我来说，波梅罗迪很无聊，但却很有趣。
Incredibly quiet, north German architecture.
令人难以置信的安静的德国北部建筑。
The dialect maybe almost sounded like Plattdeutsch, I’m not sure.
我不确定，这种方言听起来可能几乎像普拉特德语。
People didn’t believe me when I said I was an American.
当我说我是美国人时，人们不相信我。
None of the categories made sense to them.
这些类别对他们来说都没有意义。
People were friendly; it felt German.
人们很友好；感觉是德国人。
This was the 1990s, and it was like a time warp more than anything.
那是 20 世纪 90 年代，这就像时间扭曲。
Nowhere in Germany would be the way Pomerode was in the 1990s.
德国的任何地方都不会像 20 世纪 90 年代的波梅罗德那样。
Brazil has that.
巴西就有这个。
There are dishes and dances of the old Japanese community that have been preserved in Brazil in a way that they were not in Japan.
巴西以日本所没有的方式保留了古老日本社区的菜肴和舞蹈。
It’s a country — in part, because of that rich tradition of immigration that we were discussing earlier — that has all kinds of enclaves like that, that are fascinating to visit.
这个国家——部分原因是我们之前讨论过的丰富的移民传统——拥有各种各样的飞地，值得参观。
Where’s the best churrasco in Brazil?
巴西最好的巴西烤肉在哪里？
At somebody’s ranch, if you can manage.
在某人的牧场，如果你能做到的话。
But say, in commercial markets.
但是，在商业市场上。
I would say outside of Curitiba in some of the suburbs, but I’m not sure.
我想说的是库里蒂巴郊外的一些郊区，但我不确定。
There are plenty of parts I’ve never been to.
有很多地方我没去过。
It’s hard to go wrong.
很难出错。
I’ve had some amazing churrasco in São Paulo, but also up in the new cattle country, up in Mato Grosso.
我在圣保罗吃过一些很棒的巴西烤肉，也在新养牛之乡马托格罗索吃过。
I assume a lot of your audience has been to the all-you-can-eat rodizios of Brazilian barbecue here in the US.
我想你们很多观众都去过美国的无限量巴西烧烤。
It’s basically like that, but what you don’t always get here in the US is these vast buffets of other things, where you can get your picanha, which is the classic.
基本上就是这样，但在美国你并不总是能买到这些丰盛的自助餐，在那里你可以买到经典的 picanha。
They always translate that as rump steak, which makes it sound terrible, but it’s the best, most classic Brazilian cut.
他们总是将其翻译为臀肉牛排，这听起来很糟糕，但它是最好、最经典的巴西牛排。
Then line that up with hearts of palm that are sometimes almost the size and diameter of a flagpole.
然后将其与棕榈心对齐，有时棕榈心的大小和直径几乎与旗杆一样。
Those are my favorite.
这些是我最喜欢的。
That’s a real treat.
这真是一种享受。
They’re more memorable than the beef.
它们比牛肉更令人难忘。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
On Bukele’s influence in the region
关于布克莱在该地区的影响力
Awesome.
太棒了。
Some questions about other countries.
关于其他国家的一些问题。
If we look around Latin America, one can see that Nicaragua and Cuba are quite safe.
如果我们环顾拉丁美洲，就会发现尼加拉瓜和古巴相当安全。
The cost of getting there has been way, way too high.
达到这一目标的成本实在是太高了。
They’re not successful countries.
他们不是成功的国家。
Does that strengthen the case for Bukele, that, in essence, there’s not any simple way to a safe Latin American country if you start out dangerous?
这是否强化了布克莱的观点：从本质上讲，如果一开始就很危险，就没有任何简单的方法可以让拉丁美洲国家变得安全？
What you say is true in the sense that police states can be quite safe, and Nicaragua and Cuba are places where no type of dissent is tolerated today.
从警察国家可以相当安全的意义上来说，你所说的是正确的，而尼加拉瓜和古巴今天是任何类型的异议都不能容忍的地方。
El Salvador — it’s not there yet.
萨尔瓦多——还没有。
I think it’s fair to wonder whether that is what Nayib Bukele has in mind.
我认为有理由怀疑纳伊布·布克莱是否就是这么想的。
Of course, Nayib Bukele — you already named him, the very charismatic millennial El Salvadoran leader with the backwards baseball cap.
当然，纳伊布·布克莱（Nayib Bukele）——你已经提到了他，这位非常有魅力的千禧一代萨尔瓦多领导人，戴着反着的棒球帽。
What he has done is throw more than 1 percent of his country’s population in jail over the course of a year.
他所做的就是在一年内将超过 1% 的国家人口投入监狱。
El Salvador is not a big country.
萨尔瓦多不是一个大国。
To put that in proportional terms, to do the equivalent thing in the United States, that would be putting more than 3 million more people in jail in the course of 12 months.
按比例计算，在美国做同样的事情，12 个月内将有超过 300 万人入狱。
That’s how dramatic what Bukele has done.
这就是布克莱所做的多么戏剧性的事情。
So far, it has met with success in terms of reducing homicide numbers.
到目前为止，它在减少凶杀案数量方面取得了成功。
El Salvador’s official homicide index is now lower than that of the United States.
萨尔瓦多的官方凶杀指数目前低于美国。
There’s some question about whether those numbers are accurate, but certainly the trend is real, is very clear.
这些数字是否准确存在一些疑问，但趋势肯定是真实的、非常明确的。
The problem, of course, is that he’s done that without, in many cases, due process for the people who he’s put in jail.
当然，问题在于，在很多情况下，他这样做时没有为他入狱的人提供正当程序。
Is there a better alternative?
有更好的选择吗？
I think yes, but it takes time.
我想是的，但这需要时间。
It involves building up your police forces, professionalizing your judiciary, and sending people the old-fashioned way to jail, by putting them on trial first.
它包括建立你的警察队伍，使你的司法部门专业化，并以老式的方式将人们送进监狱，首先对他们进行审判。
For societies that are not willing to tolerate that, that don’t have that patience — because they think that they’re going through a crisis, an emergency — I have to say I understand why Bukele has an approval rating upwards of 80 percent, because the results are real.
对于那些不愿意容忍这种情况、没有耐心的社会来说——因为他们认为自己正在经历一场危机、紧急情况——我不得不说我理解为什么布克莱的支持率高达 80% 以上，因为结果是真实的。
The history of the world is full of societies, including democratic societies, that have been willing to suspend civil liberties in the name of a national emergency.
世界历史上有很多社会，包括民主社会，愿意以国家紧急状态的名义暂停公民自由。
We did that here in the United States during the Civil War with the suspension of habeas corpus.
我们在美国内战期间就这样做了，暂停了人身保护令。
We did it with the internment camps of the World War II era with the Japanese population.
我们在二战时期关押日本人的拘留营中做到了这一点。
We, as a society, almost always regret these things after the fact, but they’re seen as necessary at the time.
作为一个社会，我们几乎总是在事后对这些事情感到遗憾，但它们在当时被认为是必要的。
The real debate for me that Bukele awakens is, I may think that what Bukele is doing is anti-democratic, but if he was just voted in a second term as president with a huge mandate, then arguably El Salvador’s society has a democratic sovereign right to make that decision and to sign off on what he’s doing, which is, again, sending a lot of people — including, almost certainly, innocent people — to jail.
对我来说，布克莱唤醒的真正争论是，我可能认为布克莱正在做的事情是反民主的，但如果他刚刚在第二个任期内当选为总统，拥有巨大的授权，那么可以说萨尔瓦多社会拥有民主主权权利来做出这一决定并签署他正在做的事情，这又会将很多人（几乎肯定包括无辜者）送进监狱。
If that’s a cost that Salvadoran society is willing to take, then perhaps they have a right to do that.
如果这是萨尔瓦多社会愿意承担的成本，那么也许他们有权这样做。
It remains to be seen how exportable that model is to other countries in the region.
该模式能否向该地区其他国家输出仍有待观察。
You hear a lot of politicians saying nice things about Bukele, but no other country really has yet gone down that path.
你会听到很多政治家对布克莱说好话，但还没有其他国家真正走上这条路。
Ecuador and Honduras are trying a bit, but half-heartedly.
厄瓜多尔和洪都拉斯正在做出一些尝试，但并不热心。
It may be an all-or-nothing thing if you’re going to make it work.
如果你想让它发挥作用，这可能是一件要么全有要么全无的事情。
Otherwise, gang members just train other gang members.
否则，帮派成员只会训练其他帮派成员。
Look, we do have examples in recent history, imperfect examples of countries that reduced violence and that broke the grip of drug gangs under democracy.
看，我们在近代史上确实有一些例子，一些国家在民主制度下减少暴力并打破贩毒团伙控制的不完美例子。
I would cite Colombia of the 2000s.
我会引用2000年代的哥伦比亚。
This was a period that saw many human rights abuses.
这是一个发生了许多侵犯人权行为的时期。
A Colombian military that we now know killed thousands of innocent people, but — to the extent that it’s possible to say “but” after a declaration like that — homicide rates did dramatically fall, and it’s a very different-feeling country than it used to be.
我们现在知道的哥伦比亚军队杀害了数千名无辜者，但是 ——在这样的声明之后可以说“但是”——凶杀率确实大幅下降，这是一个与以前截然不同的国家。
Point is, Bukele is not the only route.
重点是，布克莱并不是唯一的路线。
I agree with you when you say that there is no easy, fast, democratic route to improving security when you’re dealing with cartels and organized crime groups that have the resources that some of these groups do, with their pockets filled with the dollars of customers of cocaine in the United States, Europe, and other countries around Latin America.
我同意你的说法，当你与卡特尔和有组织犯罪集团打交道时，没有简单、快速、民主的途径来提高安全性，这些犯罪集团拥有其中一些组织所拥有的资源，他们的口袋里装满了美国、欧洲和拉丁美洲其他国家的可卡因客户的美元。
On Colombia’s surprisingly smooth growth
哥伦比亚出人意料的平稳增长
Speaking of Colombia, I have a question about the country.
说到哥伦比亚，我有一个关于这个国家的问题。
I’ve never understood this.
我一直不明白这一点。
If I look at the history long term, it seems — not seems, it is quite violent, even by Latin standards.
如果我从长远来看历史，似乎——似乎并非如此，即使按照拉丁标准，这也是相当暴力的。
If I look at the history of economic growth in Colombia, it’s actually fairly smooth and steady.
如果我回顾一下哥伦比亚的经济增长历史，它实际上是相当顺利和稳定的。
Is there any single theory of the country that can account for both of those facts?
是否有任何单一的国家理论可以解释这两个事实？
I’m always skeptical of simple, neat theories, but I would point to geography.
我总是对简单、简洁的理论持怀疑态度，但我会指出地理。
Colombia, in a way, is unique.
在某种程度上，哥伦比亚是独一无二的。
It is a country where the capital is on top of the mountain in Bogotá.
这是一个首都位于波哥大山顶的国家。
Colombia is a country of plateaus.
哥伦比亚是一个高原国家。
It is a very difficult territory for any central authority to control.
对于任何中央当局来说，这都是一个非常难以控制的领土。
Some have compared it — by “some” I mean development agencies at the UN and others — have compared it, in terms of its geography, to Afghanistan with areas that are just completely separated from each other.
有些人将其与阿富汗进行了比较——“我所说的“一些”是指联合国的发展机构和其他机构”——就其地理位置而言，将其与阿富汗进行了比较，阿富汗的地区彼此完全分开。
The story in Colombia over time has been that of a competent government in Bogotá that does not control all of the national territory.
随着时间的推移，哥伦比亚的故事是波哥大的一个称职的政府并没有控制所有的国家领土。
It remains true today.
今天仍然如此。
There are vast pockets of the country that federal authority simply does not get to.
该国有大片地区联邦当局根本无法介入。
That has been a big reason why it was one of the very few Latin American countries that never defaulted on its debt in the 1980s.
这是它成为 20 世纪 80 年代极少数从未拖欠债务的拉丁美洲国家之一的一个重要原因。
They never had a hyperinflation.
他们从未经历过恶性通货膨胀。
Their economy, Tyler, as you noted, has almost always consistently grown.
泰勒，正如你所指出的，他们的经济几乎总是持续增长。
Yet they’ve had these huge problems with guerilla movements and general lawlessness, partly because of geography and partly because of, let’s say, a lack of political will to go and dominate, subdue, bring rule of law to these parts of the country that were not under the federal umbrella.
然而，他们在游击运动和普遍的无法无天方面遇到了这些巨大的问题，部分原因是地理原因，部分原因是，比如说，缺乏政治意愿去统治、征服、为国家这些不在联邦保护伞之下的地区带来法治。
It’s not just about geography; it’s about political will as well.
这不仅仅是地理问题；这也与政治意愿有关。
But a good civil service, right?
但良好的公务员制度，对吗？
A breathtakingly competent civil service.
令人惊叹的称职的公务员队伍。
A certain consensus around the need for sound fiscal management, which anyone who follows Latin America knows is not something you should ever take for granted.
任何关注拉丁美洲的人都知道，围绕健全的财政管理的必要性存在一定的共识，这绝不是理所当然的事情。
Like a lot of these countries, they have things that they’ve done well and areas where they still need to improve.
像许多这样的国家一样，他们有做得好的地方，也有需要改进的地方。
What’s the most interesting lesser-known part of Colombia to visit?
哥伦比亚最有趣的鲜为人知的地方是什么？
Oh gosh.
哦天哪。
I’m not sure it’s lesser known.
我不确定它是否鲜为人知。
I am quite taken with Cartegena, as many visitors are.
和许多游客一样，我对卡塔赫纳非常着迷。
Medellín, the land of the eternal spring.
麦德林，永恒的春天之地。
Montería is an area I’ve been to that looks a lot like the Mato Grosso and the cattle country in Brazil that we were discussing earlier.
蒙特里亚是我去过的一个地区，看起来很像我们之前讨论过的马托格罗索州和巴西的养牛之乡。
It’s a beautiful place.
这是一个美丽的地方。
I would say, having stuttered around this a little bit, my favorite place is the Sierra Nevada, which is unique in the global context.
我想说，在这个问题上有点结巴，我最喜欢的地方是内华达山脉，它在全球范围内是独一无二的。
As the name suggests, it’s a snowy range of mountains from which you can see the Caribbean Sea.
顾名思义，这是一座白雪皑皑的山脉，从中可以看到加勒比海。
The fact that there is a mountain range where you can simultaneously see the Caribbean and sometimes there is snow on the ground never ceases to amaze me.
事实上，有一座山脉，你可以同时看到加勒比海，有时地上还有雪，这一事实一直让我感到惊讶。
It is a beautiful place, one of these troubled parts of the country where, for a long time and intermittently, federal authority comes and goes.
这是一个美丽的地方，是这个国家那些陷入困境的地区之一，联邦当局在很长一段时间内断断续续地来来往往。
If you can ever manage to go and feel safe, there are few places in the world quite like that.
如果你能设法去并感到安全，世界上很少有地方能像这样。
I’m bringing my sister for birdwatching to Santa Marta in May, which is not so far from there, right?
五月我要带姐姐去圣玛尔塔观鸟，离那里不远，对吧？
What are your favorite birds?
你最喜欢什么鸟？
What are you hoping to see while you’re there?
您希望在那里看到什么？
It’s really a trip for my sister.
对于姐姐来说，这确实是一次旅行。
She’s a well-known amateur bird photographer.
她是一位著名的业余鸟类摄影师。
She’s heavily into birdwatching.
她非常热衷于观鸟。
I’m not, but I’m heavily into Colombia, and I’ve been to enough places that I feel I can bring her around, and she wouldn’t go on her own, so we’re doing it.
我不是，但我很喜欢哥伦比亚，而且我去过足够多的地方，我觉得我可以带她去，她不会自己去，所以我们正在这样做。
Good for you.
对你有好处。
On Argentina
关于阿根廷
Argentina — why is the Jockey Club so popular in Buenos Aires?
阿根廷 — 为什么赛马会在布宜诺斯艾利斯如此受欢迎？
I’m sure you’ve noticed this.
我相信你已经注意到了这一点。
I have noticed this.
我注意到了这一点。
I think two reasons.
我认为有两个原因。
One is that Argentina is regarded, even today, by many as the heart of polo culture and horse culture globally.
一是即使在今天，阿根廷仍被许多人视为全球马球文化和马术文化的中心。
People say Florida and Provincia de Buenos Aires are the main places to be.
人们说佛罗里达州和布宜诺斯艾利斯省是主要的去处。
But a lot of this also, Tyler, as I was saying earlier — everything or almost everything in Argentina ends up being about past glory and past wealth.
但泰勒，正如我之前所说的，阿根廷的一切或几乎一切最终都与过去的荣耀和财富有关。
And the Jockey Club is really one of those places still left in the city where you can look around and squint a little bit, imagine it’s 1920 and this is still the “Paris of South America.”
赛马俱乐部确实是这座城市中仍保留的地方之一，在这里你可以环顾四周，眯起眼睛，想象一下现在是 1920 年，这里仍然是“南美洲的巴黎”。
It’s not the only place that’s like that.
这不是唯一这样的地方。
Actually, the city itself looks good.
事实上，这座城市本身看起来不错。
It looks better than it did when I covered Argentina’s economic meltdown in my first job out of college, more than 20 years ago.
这看起来比 20 多年前我大学毕业后第一份工作报道阿根廷经济崩溃时要好。
But the economy today — speaking of things that are cyclical — you’ve got inflation above 270 percent.
但当今的经济 ——“说到周期性因素”—— 通货膨胀率超过 270%。
It doesn’t take long, even at the Jockey Club, to realize that not all is well in the country right now.
即使在赛马俱乐部，没过多久，人们就会意识到，目前这个国家的情况并非一帆风顺。
I agree with your nostalgia point, but as I’m sure you know, there are so many very good startups from Argentina, though they may leave the country, go to Brazil, go to Mexico.
我同意你的怀旧观点，但我相信你知道，阿根廷有很多非常好的初创公司，尽管他们可能会离开这个国家，去巴西，去墨西哥。
Why is there this mix of creativity and nostalgia?
为什么会有这种创造力和怀旧的混合体？
I’m not sure they’re mutually exclusive.
我不确定它们是相互排斥的。
I would frame it slightly differently.
我的框架略有不同。
The intellectual capital and firepower that you see in Argentina is still very strong.
你在阿根廷看到的智力资本和火力仍然非常强大。
I’ve always believed, as someone who’s probably spent too many hours of my life thinking about Argentine decline, cultural and intellectual capital erodes less quickly than economic capital.
我一直相信，作为一个可能花了太多时间思考阿根廷衰落的人，文化和智力资本的侵蚀速度比经济资本要慢。
You still see these amazing centers of excellence in Buenos Aires.
您仍然可以在布宜诺斯艾利斯看到这些令人惊叹的卓越中心。
What these entrepreneurs will tell you — the founders of these companies that you mentioned, like Mercado Libre or Globant, that have really become world beaters on the global stage .
这些企业家会告诉你什么——你提到的这些公司的创始人，比如 Mercado Libre 或 Globant，他们确实已经成为全球舞台上的世界领先者。
.
。
.
。
Mercado Libre, at this point, is one of the biggest e-commerce companies in the entire world and competes with Amazon.
Mercado Libre 目前是全球最大的电子商务公司之一，与亚马逊竞争。
What these founders will tell you is that, actually, starting their businesses in such an uncertain macroeconomic environment has made them incredibly lean, disciplined, and ready to go out into the world and dominate.
这些创始人会告诉你的是，实际上，在如此不确定的宏观经济环境中开展业务使他们变得异常精干、纪律严明，并准备好走向世界并占据主导地位。
The idea being that if you can make it in Argentina, where conditions can dramatically change from one day to the next, almost like the weather, then you can survive damn near anything.
这个想法是，如果你能在阿根廷生存，那里的情况每天都会发生巨大的变化，几乎就像天气一样，那么你可以在任何地方生存。
That has been one reason why a lot of these companies have had so much success on the global stage.
这就是许多此类公司在全球舞台上取得如此成功的原因之一。
You look around Spanish-speaking Latin America, and the big tech giants, the ones that really dominate — with some exceptions — they tend to be Argentine.
你环顾一下讲西班牙语的拉丁美洲，以及那些真正占据主导地位的大型科技巨头——除了一些例外——它们往往是阿根廷。
Why is psychoanalysis still so popular in Buenos Aires?
为什么精神分析在布宜诺斯艾利斯仍然如此流行？
A lot of people — it’s a very popular question.
很多人 ——这是一个非常受欢迎的问题。
It’s not just popular.
这不仅仅是流行。
According to several studies, it has the world’s highest per capita rate of psychoanalysis.
根据多项研究，该国拥有世界上人均精神分析率最高的国家。
Freud was very big there over the years.
多年来，弗洛伊德在那里非常重要。
Having lived there for four years myself, I never saw one, but virtually every Argentine friend did, and they spoke about it in a way that was very natural.
我自己在那里住了四年，从未见过，但几乎每个阿根廷朋友都见过，而且他们以一种非常自然的方式谈论它。
“I went to the gym this morning, and then I went to the supermarket to buy some bread.
“我今天早上去了健身房，然后去超市买了一些面包。
After that, I went to see my analyst for one and a half hours because we’re reconstructing my personality.” People would say that in the most natural way, as if there was nothing to it.
之后，我去见了我的分析师一个半小时，因为我们正在重建我的性格。”人们会以最自然的方式说出这句话，就好像这没什么。
Why has the Uruguay success story so accelerated recently?
为什么乌拉圭的成功故事最近如此加速？
Uruguay is a fascinating story, Tyler.
乌拉圭是一个迷人的故事，泰勒。
It’s a country of just 3.3 million people that I think a lot of people, if we’re honest, would struggle to find it on a map.
这是一个只有 330 万人口的国家，老实说，我想很多人都很难在地图上找到它。
But despite its small size, it has been a real success story.
尽管规模很小，但它却是一个真正的成功故事。
It was always different in a Latin American context.
在拉丁美洲的背景下，情况总是不同的。
It was Latin America’s first welfare state 100 years ago.
100 年前，它是拉丁美洲第一个福利国家。
I’ve been a big proponent of the Uruguay story.
我一直是乌拉圭故事的大力支持者。
I wrote an article about it for Americas Quarterly more than a year ago, and a lot of people dismissed it and said, “Oh, well, Uruguay — it’s so small.
一年多前，我为《美洲季刊》写了一篇关于它的文章，很多人对此不屑一顾，并说：“哦，好吧，乌拉圭——它太小了。
It’s always been so wealthy that it’s not really an example for the rest of the region.” But that’s not true.
它一直如此富有，以至于它并不是该地区其他地区的榜样。”但事实并非如此。
Twenty years ago, when Argentina’s economy melted down the last time, it had a huge contagion effect on Uruguay.
二十年前，阿根廷经济上次崩溃时，对乌拉圭产生了巨大的传染效应。
Poverty in Uruguay was actually 50 percent.
乌拉圭的贫困率实际上为 50%。
This was a country that was just flat on its back.
这是一个仰面平坦的国家。
Today that percentage is in the low double digits.
如今，这一比例已降至两位数。
It’s around 10 percent.
大约是百分之十。
Back to this discussion we were having about crime and security — there was no silver bullet.
回到我们关于犯罪和安全的讨论——“没有灵丹妙药。”
What happened was, they came out of that crisis 20 years ago, and they realized that there were certain things that needed to be done.
发生的事情是，他们在 20 年前走出了那场危机，并意识到有些事情需要做。
They needed a consensus around fiscal management, around sound management of the economy.
他们需要围绕财政管理、健全的经济管理达成共识。
They needed to bring better regulations to their banks.
他们需要对银行实施更好的监管。
Sadly, but probably correctly, they concluded that they needed to reduce their dependence on their neighbors, that they needed to depend less — namely on Argentina — and diversify.
遗憾的是，他们得出的结论可能是正确的，即需要减少对邻国的依赖，需要减少对邻国的依赖——即对阿根廷的依赖——并实现多元化。
They’re still undergoing that process today.
他们今天仍在经历这个过程。
It’s interesting — this is a country that has been knocking furiously on the door of the White House for several years now, trying to do a trade deal with the US.
有趣的是，这个国家几年来一直在猛烈地敲着白宫的大门，试图与美国达成贸易协议。
Met with, for the most part, unreceptive ears in Washington, but that’s what they’re trying to do.
大多数情况下，华盛顿的耳朵并不接受，但这就是他们想要做的。
It’s a solid democracy.
这是一个坚实的民主制度。
It does better than the United States in some of these rankings of solid democracies that get put together by the Economist Intelligence Unit and others, and the beaches are beautiful, too.
在经济学人智库和其他机构整理的一些稳固民主国家排名中，中国的表现比美国要好，而且海滩也很美丽。
So, one day when I have to go fleeing into exile because of something I’ve said or done, Uruguay is definitely on the top of my list.
因此，有一天，当我因为自己说过或做过的事情而不得不流亡国外时，乌拉圭绝对是我的首选。
On the most livable city in the region
位于该地区最宜居的城市
Let’s say you’re a 30-year-old couple, husband and wife.
假设你们是一对 30 岁的夫妇，夫妻。
You have 2 kids.
你有 2 个孩子。
You all speak Spanish or Portuguese, and you have to relocate somewhere in Latin America.
你们都会说西班牙语或葡萄牙语，而且必须搬到拉丁美洲的某个地方。
Which city do you choose?
你选择哪个城市？
Maybe not permanent, but ongoing — not six months — five or ten years.
也许不是永久的，但会持续 ——“不是六个月”—— 五年或十年。
Gosh, what a great question, Tyler.
天哪，这是一个很好的问题，泰勒。
I think, in terms of the best combination of economic opportunity, relative safety, integration with the world, the possibility of upward mobility, I would say São Paulo.
我认为，就经济机会、相对安全、与世界融合、向上流动的可能性的最佳组合而言，我会选择圣保罗。
I really would, despite everything that we were saying earlier about the security risks, the crime.
我真的愿意，尽管我们之前说了很多关于安全风险和犯罪的事情。
With Mexico City, those are the two truly international cities in Latin America.
墨西哥城是拉丁美洲两个真正的国际城市。
There are other places that are great hubs.
还有其他地方是很棒的枢纽。
I love Buenos Aires.
我爱布宜诺斯艾利斯。
Santiago in Chile has great quality of life.
智利圣地亚哥的生活质量很高。
But if you’re a citizen of the world, if you’re trying to do business, the issue that Argentina and Chile have is that they’re far.
但如果你是世界公民，如果你想做生意，阿根廷和智利面临的问题是距离太远。
They’re at the very extreme end of the continent.
他们位于这片大陆的最尽头。
São Paulo is a bit more central.
圣保罗更中心一些。
It’s also a place — Brazil writ large, but São Paulo specifically — where it’s very easy to integrate yourself into local society.
这也是一个地方——“巴西很大，但特别是圣保罗”——在这里你很容易融入当地社会。
I speak Portuguese, but with an accent.
我说葡萄牙语，但带有口音。
It is the only place in Latin America where I can go to the corner bakery and order my favorite juice, which is a suco de mamão com laranja, which is a papaya with orange juice.
这是拉丁美洲唯一一个我可以去街角面包店点我最喜欢的果汁的地方，那就是suco de mamão com laranja，这是一种木瓜加橙汁。
That identifies me right away as a gringo.
这立刻就表明我是外国佬。
Those vowels that I just said — every Brazilian will hear them and say, “This guy is not from here.” But I never felt like a foreigner in São Paulo, in part because it has that tradition of people from all over the world and also all over the country, keeping in mind that Brazil is a country that’s even bigger than the continental United States.
我刚才说的那些元音 ——每个巴西人都会听到它们并说，“这个家伙不是来自这里。”但我在圣保罗从来没有感觉自己像个外国人，部分原因是它有来自世界各地和全国各地的人们的传统，要记住巴西是一个比美国大陆还要大的国家。
So, if you balance all those things, I would choose São Paulo.
所以，如果你权衡所有这些因素，我会选择圣保罗。
I like São Paulo, but doesn’t it worry you?
我喜欢圣保罗，但你不担心吗？
I find almost all of the city ugly.
我发现几乎整个城市都很丑。
It’s so ugly.
太丑了。
Yes, that would get on my nerves.
是的，这会让我心烦意乱。
I’m tempted to say Panama City for myself.
我很想说巴拿马城。
The name of the book that I’m working on about São Paulo right now, that I mentioned earlier, you’ll appreciate, then.
我之前提到过，我现在正在写的关于圣保罗的书的名字，你一定会喜欢的。
The title is The Ugliest City You’ll Ever Love.
标题是《你会爱过的最丑陋的城市》。
It goes through this whole arc that I just spoke about and says why, even though it is a place that sometimes seems to be chasing away visitors — you come out of the international airport in São Paulo, and you immediately pass not one but two high-security prisons and a sewage treatment plant, and then you spend the next 30 minutes driving along an extremely polluted river, which is the Tietê.
它贯穿了我刚才谈到的整个弧线，并说明了原因，尽管这是一个有时似乎在赶走游客的地方 ——你从圣保罗国际机场出来，你立即经过的不是一个而是两个戒备森严的监狱和一个污水处理厂，然后你在接下来的30分钟里沿着一条污染严重的河流行驶，这就是Tietê河。
Not everybody falls in love with it right away, but there’s such a great vibe.
并不是每个人都会立即爱上它，但它的氛围非常好。
You feel so welcome there as a foreigner.
作为一个外国人，你在那里感到很受欢迎。
This may sound strange, but if you like work — and I like work — São Paulo is a great place to be as well.
这听起来可能很奇怪，但如果您喜欢工作 — 而我也喜欢工作 — 圣保罗也是一个很棒的地方。
It’s a place where people take pride in what they do without being totally consumed by it.
在这里，人们为自己所做的事情感到自豪，但又不会完全被它所吞噬。
It is still Brazil, and so people also know how to party and have a good time.
这仍然是巴西，所以人们也知道如何聚会并度过愉快的时光。
I take it you agree with the standard view that most Latin American countries are fairly happy relative to their income levels.
我认为您同意标准观点，即大多数拉丁美洲国家相对于其收入水平来说相当幸福。
That has been borne out by surveys again and again.
这已经被一次又一次的调查所证实。
It goes back to what I was saying earlier about these people who sometimes endure great hardship.
这又回到了我之前所说的关于这些有时要忍受巨大苦难的人。
Are there exceptions to that?
有例外吗？
I think there are a few exceptions.
我认为有一些例外。
Tell me, what are the exceptions?
告诉我，有哪些例外情况？
I don’t think Guatemala is very happy, and I think significant parts of Bolivia are not so happy.
我认为危地马拉不太幸福，玻利维亚的大部分地区也不太幸福。
Again, this is relative to income levels.
同样，这与收入水平有关。
You’re naming two of the poorest countries in the region.
您提到了该地区两个最贫穷的国家。
I do think that there’s a point where — and this is something else that has been outside of these happiness surveys that we always see, which I always find funny — the notion that the countries of Scandinavia are the happiest in the world, but maybe so.
我确实认为，有一个点————这是我们经常看到的幸福调查之外的另一件事，我总是觉得这很有趣————斯堪的纳维亚国家是世界上最幸福的国家，但也许确实如此。
But as someone who spent 10 years of my life living in Latin America as a reporter, and continues to follow the region as part of my job, just speaking for myself, there are several reasons why I do this.
但作为一个在拉丁美洲生活了十年的记者，并继续跟踪该地区作为我工作的一部分，仅代表我自己，我这样做有几个原因。
I’m very interested in the question of why nations fail or succeed, but I also love these places.
我对国家为何失败或成功的问题非常感兴趣，但我也喜欢这些地方。
I love these countries.
我爱这些国家。
I love the happiness, the sense of humor, the value that people place upon family and friends.
我喜欢快乐、幽默感以及人们对家人和朋友的重视。
It’s tough sometimes because for my day job, I live now in New York, and I engage with the region so often now through a purely political lens.
有时这很困难，因为对于我的日常工作，我现在住在纽约，并且我现在经常通过纯粹的政治视角与该地区进行接触。
Sometimes it feels like exactly the wrong lens to be engaging with the region.
有时感觉与该地区的接触完全是错误的镜头。
During the pandemic in particular, when I was still writing about politics day-to-day but stuck here in New York, it was really tough because I had to keep reminding myself there is so much more to these places than just the dysfunctional politics.
特别是在大流行期间，当我仍然每天撰写有关政治的文章但被困在纽约时，这真的很艰难，因为我必须不断提醒自己，这些地方不仅仅是功能失调的政治。
Now that I’m able to travel again, I see that every time I go.
现在我能够再次旅行，每次去我都会看到这一点。
Do you still read fiction from Latin America?
您还在读拉丁美洲小说吗？
To be honest with you, the truth is, not as much as I should and not as much as I used to.
老实说，事实是，没有我应该做的那么多，也没有以前那么多。
Maybe some of that is age, and some of it is also the need to try to keep up with an extremely varied region of almost 600 million people from New York.
也许部分原因在于年龄，部分原因还在于需要努力跟上纽约近 6 亿人口的极其多样化的地区。
Look, I’m in Latin America all the time.
看，我一直在拉丁美洲。
I travel several weeks, months out of the year, but that challenge of trying to keep a finger on the pulse means that, unfortunately, I have not read books like Torto Arado.
我一年中会旅行几周、几个月，但不幸的是，试图掌握脉搏的挑战意味着我没有读过像托尔托阿拉多这样的书。
That’s a Brazilian book.
那是一本巴西书。
It is winning all kinds of prizes on international circuits right now.
它现在正在国际赛道上赢得各种奖项。
Most of your time you spend writing, editing, commissioning articles.
你的大部分时间都花在撰写、编辑、委托文章上。
Assuming you’re not in Latin America, what is your day?
假设您不在拉丁美洲，您今天过几天？
I still have the habits of an old wire reporter, Tyler.
我仍然保留着老通讯社记者泰勒的习惯。
I’m 46 years old.
我今年 46 岁。
I started my career very young in Argentina.
我很小的时候就在阿根廷开始了我的职业生涯。
I was 22 years old.
那年我22岁。
My first job was covering the economic collapse of Argentina in 2001 and 2002.
我的第一份工作是报道 2001 年和 2002 年阿根廷的经济崩溃。
That was a period that saw five presidents in two weeks, a default on the sovereign debt, a 70 percent currency devaluation.
那段时期两周内出现了五位总统，主权债务违约，货币贬值 70%。
It was a baptism by fire.
这是一次火的洗礼。
It was really what showed me the importance of politics and of policy.
这确实向我展示了政治和政策的重要性。
In some respects, that experience has never left me.
从某些方面来说，那种经历从未离开过我。
Something else that has not left me is that need to begin my day by obsessively reading newspapers in Argentina, in Brazil, Colombia, Chile.
还有一件事没有离开我，那就是需要通过痴迷于阅读阿根廷、巴西、哥伦比亚、智利的报纸来开始我的一天。
Those are the countries that I follow most closely.
这些是我最密切关注的国家。
It’s impossible to follow all of them.
跟随所有这些是不可能的。
Then I make my way to my work next to the miserable-looking commuters who I mentioned earlier.
然后我就去上班了，旁边就是我之前提到过的那些表情悲惨的通勤者。
We sit in our office here on Park Avenue and do our best to try to make sense of what’s happening in this region.
我们坐在公园大道的办公室里，尽最大努力了解该地区正在发生的事情。
Focus not only on the challenges but talk about some of the successes as well.
不仅要关注挑战，还要谈论一些成功的事情。
What’s the hardest thing to teach your writers?
教你的作家最难的事情是什么？
Humility.
谦逊。
Circumstances have changed so much since I started doing this.
自从我开始这样做以来，情况发生了很大的变化。
I have to say, with a certain degree of embarrassment, that it is partly a function of what’s happened in world history over the last 25 years since I started doing this.
我不得不有点尴尬地说，这在一定程度上是我开始从事这项工作以来过去 25 年里世界历史发生的事情的结果。
Anglo-American correspondents in Latin America 25 years ago wrote with this certitude, this certainty that these countries needed to learn from the example of the United States and/or England.
25 年前，驻拉丁美洲的英美记者满怀信心地写道，这些国家需要向美国和/或英国学习。
I worked for Reuters for many years.
我在路透社工作了很多年。
Not everybody was like that, of course, but that was a prevailing view.
当然，并不是每个人都这样，但这是一种普遍的观点。
Keep in mind we were coming out of the 1990s, which was the peak of the post-Cold War period, the end of history, Washington Consensus, and everything like that.
请记住，我们刚刚走出 20 世纪 90 年代，那是后冷战时期的顶峰、历史的终结、华盛顿共识以及诸如此类的一切。
But everything that’s happened over the last several years, from the Great Recession of 2008 to things like the Iraq War, the problems that the US has had in our own democracy in that time have really, I think, impacted the way that journalists everywhere write about everything, I would hope.
但过去几年发生的一切，从 2008 年的大衰退到伊拉克战争等事情，我认为美国当时在我们自己的民主中遇到的问题确实影响了世界各地记者报道一切的方式，我希望。
But specifically Latin America, which used to be treated — you still see shades of it every now and then — with a finger-wagging paternalism that not only turns people off in the region — there’s no quicker way to shut Latin American readers off than when they sense that happening.
但特别是拉丁美洲，它过去受到的对待是——“你仍然时不时地看到它的影子——”用一种挥舞手指的家长作风，这不仅让该地区的人们感到厌烦——“没有比当拉丁美洲读者感觉到这种情况发生时更快捷的方法来让他们感到厌烦。”
I think it’s important for us to recognize that all of our countries are imperfect and facing some of the same challenges in terms of democratic erosion, rising inequality, addiction to drugs, and all the effects that that has on organized crime.
我认为重要的是我们要认识到我们所有的国家都是不完美的，并且在民主侵蚀、不平等加剧、毒品成瘾以及对有组织犯罪的所有影响方面都面临着一些相同的挑战。
We’re much less different from people in this part of the world than many of us believed 25 years ago.
我们与世界这一地区的人们的差异远没有我们许多人 25 年前所认为的那么大。
Speaking of humility, is Milei going to succeed or fail?
说到谦虚，米莱会成功还是会失败？
I wish I knew, Tyler.
我希望我知道，泰勒。
He’s such a fascinating story.
他的故事是如此迷人。
I think that Javier Milei has the right ideas.
我认为哈维尔·米雷的想法是正确的。
He understands that the essence of Argentina’s problem is fiscal, that it’s a country that spends more than it earns.
他明白阿根廷问题的本质是财政问题，这是一个支出超过收入的国家。
It has for decades, and it’s part of this whole story of decline.
几十年来一直如此，而且这是整个衰落故事的一部分。
It’s a country where the accounts are always a little bit out of balance, or sometimes a lot out of balance.
这个国家的账户总是有点不平衡，有时甚至严重不平衡。
It has, over the years, financed that gap through one of two mechanisms: by borrowing, but then when the sources of financing run out — as they periodically do — they print money.
多年来，它通过两种机制之一来弥补这一缺口：通过借贷，但当融资来源耗尽时——正如它们定期发生的那样——它们就印钞。
That’s the reason that they have one of the world’s highest inflation rates right now, upward of 270 percent.
这就是为什么他们现在是世界上通货膨胀率最高的国家之一，高达 270% 以上。
Milei understands the nature of the problem.
米莱了解问题的本质。
I think his diagnosis is correct.
我认为他的诊断是正确的。
Most mainstream economists agree with that.
大多数主流经济学家都同意这一点。
The problem is — several problems — one of them is to bring things back into balance under democracy, something that only a few countries have been able to do.
问题是“几个问题”，其中一个是在民主制度下使事情恢复平衡，而只有少数国家能够做到这一点。
Brazil has done it, right?
巴西已经做到了，对吗？
Brazil has done it.
巴西已经做到了。
Brazil passed the Real Plan back in the 1990s under democracy, and they managed to bring inflation under control.
巴西早在 20 世纪 90 年代就在民主制度下通过了“真实计划”，并成功控制了通货膨胀。
But you look at the economic stabilization programs elsewhere in Latin America.
但你看看拉丁美洲其他地方的经济稳定计划。
The one that Mexico had in the ’80s and ’90s — of course, that was still during the period of one-party rule in Mexico.
墨西哥八十年代、九十年代的——当然，那还是墨西哥一党专政时期。
It was not a dictatorship, but it was certainly not a democracy.
这不是独裁，但也绝对不是民主。
The stabilization program that we saw in Chile in the 1980s — the first part of that happened under dictatorship, Augusto Pinochet.
我们在 20 世纪 80 年代在智利看到的稳定计划——该计划的第一部分是在奥古斯托·皮诺切特独裁统治下发生的。
The second part happened under democracy in the 1990s.
第二部分发生在20世纪90年代的民主制度下。
Peru, similarly — Fujimori closed the Congress in the ’90s.
秘鲁也同样如此——藤森在 90 年代关闭了国会。
Anyway, Argentine democracy is very strong, so Milei has to operate within that system.
无论如何，阿根廷的民主制度非常强大，所以米莱必须在这个体系内运作。
That’s a good thing.
这是一件好事。
Can he do it?
他能做到吗？
Does he have the temperament to do it?
他有这个气质吗？
Does he have the political support?
他有政治支持吗？
These are questions that all of us, including 45 million Argentines, are asking ourselves every day.
这些是我们所有人，包括 4500 万阿根廷人，每天都在问自己的问题。
It’s, in many ways, unprecedented.
从很多方面来说，这都是前所未有的。
I’m rooting for Argentina because there would be nothing better and more gratifying for me, given what I lived through 25 years ago, than to see that country succeed.
我支持阿根廷，因为考虑到我 25 年前的经历，没有什么比看到这个国家取得成功更好、更令人欣慰的了。
Why do Chileans use so many bad dairy sauces on their seafood?
为什么智利人在海鲜上使用这么多劣质乳制品酱？
Surely this has occurred to you.
您肯定也曾想到过这一点。
You know what?
你知道吗？
What I admire about the Chileans is how they put guacamole on everything.
我欣赏智利人的一点是他们把鳄梨酱放在所有东西上。
I’m trying to think — the dairy sauces on the seafood.
我试着思考 —— 海鲜上的乳制品酱。
Explain.
解释。
So often, I’ll be in a Chilean city; I’ll go to a nice restaurant.
很多时候，我会去智利的一座城市；我会去一家不错的餐馆。
It’s never what I order, but there’ll be some amazing fish dish where the quality of the natural ingredients is high, and there’ll be some kind of cream-based dairy sauce on it, which ruins it.
这从来不是我点的菜，但会有一些令人惊叹的鱼菜，其中天然成分的质量很高，而且上面会有某种奶油乳制品酱，这会毁了它。
Now, you can order something else.
现在，您可以订购其他东西。
I like the food in Chile quite a bit, though often the Peruvian restaurants, say, in Santiago are better than the Chilean restaurants.
我非常喜欢智利的食物，尽管秘鲁餐馆（例如圣地亚哥）通常比智利餐馆更好。
Or you might get something like curanto in the town market just because it’s different, and there’s not going to be a dairy sauce on it.
或者你可能会在城镇市场上买到像库兰托这样的东西，只是因为它不同，而且上面不会有乳制品酱。
I think, Tyler, what we need to do is go on a culinary tour.
我想，泰勒，我们需要做的是进行一次美食之旅。
I will order for you and make sure you don’t get any of that damn sauce on your sea bass.
我会为你点菜，并确保你的鲈鱼上不会沾到任何该死的酱汁。
How’s that?
怎么样？
That’s very good.
那很好。
A lot of the best food I’ve had in Chile will just be avocado or strawberries, or the eggs are amazing.
我在智利吃过的很多最好的食物都是鳄梨或草莓，或者鸡蛋也很棒。
It has the best mashed potatoes I’ve eaten anywhere.
它有我在任何地方吃过的最好的土豆泥。
But there are just these odd mistakes that appear random, but they’re also systematic.
但这些奇怪的错误看起来是随机的，但它们也是系统性的。
Argentina might be the place for you because they are just averse — this has evolved a little bit over the years — but they’re so averse to sauce, specifically spice.
阿根廷可能是适合你的地方，因为他们只是厌恶 ——“这些年来这已经发生了一些变化”—— 但他们非常厌恶酱汁，特别是香料。
I had Argentine friends, when I lived there, who believed that ranch dressing was too spicy.
当我住在那里时，我有一些阿根廷朋友，他们认为牧场酱太辣了。
They have a point.
他们说得有道理。
They say, “Why would you want to take away the actual taste of the food?”
他们说：“你为什么要剥夺食物的真实味道？”
Why is there so much more gnocchi in Argentina than, say, anywhere in Italy?
为什么阿根廷的面疙瘩比意大利的任何地方都多？
Why is it gnocchi that’s been transferred?
为什么转移的是面疙瘩？
There’s a long tradition around gnocchi, which is that people ate it, I believe, it was the 29th of the month.
关于面疙瘩有一个悠久的传统，那就是人们在这个月的 29 号吃它。
I think that’s right.
我认为这是对的。
Because traditionally, in part because of this history of inflation, by the time you got to the end of the month, you didn’t have much money left to feed yourself or your family.
因为传统上，部分由于通货膨胀的历史，到月底时，你已经没有多少钱来养活自己或家人了。
And so on that day of the month, you went out and bought gnocchi.
所以在这个月的那一天，你出去买了面疙瘩。
That term is also used — gnocchi — to describe people who are on government payrolls but don’t actually do anything.
这个词也被用来形容那些在政府工资单上但实际上什么也没做的人。
They’re called that because the only day of the month that they show up to be on the job is at the end of the month, when they’re going to get paid.
他们之所以这样称呼，是因为他们每月唯一上班的一天是月底，也就是他们要领工资的时候。
Little stories like that tell you a little bit about the political and gastronomical culture of a place.
像这样的小故事可以告诉你一些关于一个地方的政治和美食文化的信息。
Very last question.
最后一个问题。
Where in Latin America do you wish to explore and learn about next?
接下来您想探索和了解拉丁美洲的哪些地方？
Tyler, there is an omission for me, which is indigenous culture.
泰勒，对我来说有一个遗漏，那就是土著文化。
It is partly a function of the places where I’ve lived: Buenos Aires, São Paulo, Mexico City even.
这在一定程度上与我居住过的地方有关：布宜诺斯艾利斯、圣保罗、甚至墨西哥城。
This is a little bit different.
这有点不同。
These are cities, especially the first two, that are not deeply in touch with indigenous culture.
这些城市，尤其是前两个城市，与本土文化的联系并不深入。
We are learning so much, even today, about the wealth and intellectual depth of some of these civilizations that lived in the Amazon.
即使在今天，我们仍然对生活在亚马逊地区的一些文明的财富和知识深度了解得很多。
There was this long-standing view that Brazil in particular was empty when the Portuguese landed there in 1500.
长期以来有一种观点认为，当葡萄牙人于 1500 年登陆巴西时，巴西尤其是一片空地。
Yes, there were some indigenous people, but it was not like the civilizations that the Spanish found in Peru and Mexico — the Incas, the Aztecs, the Mayas — that there was no real equivalent in Brazil.
是的，有一些土著人民，但与西班牙人在秘鲁和墨西哥发现的文明（印加人、阿兹特克人、玛雅人）不同，巴西没有真正的同等文明。
We’re now finding out that that was not the case, that there were perhaps as many as six million people at the time of conquest in the Amazon.
我们现在发现事实并非如此，在征服亚马逊时，可能有多达 600 万人。
That, for me, in a region that has so much depth, so many different cultural strands that you can tap into, that is one that is obvious in some ways.
对我来说，在一个如此有深度、如此多不同文化可供利用的地区，这一点在某些方面是显而易见的。
But I’m stimulated and excited by the fact that we continue to discover new things.
但我们不断发现新事物这一事实让我感到兴奋和兴奋。
Brian Winter, thank you very much.
布莱恩·温特，非常感谢你。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。
It’s been a real pleasure.
这真是一种乐趣。