Balaji Srinivasan on the Power and Promise of the Blockchain (Ep. 39)
Note: this transcript has been edited for clarity.
注：为了清晰起见，本文字记录已被编辑。
I’m here today with Balaji Srinivasan.
今天我和巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑一起来到这里。
Marc Andreessen has described Balaji as the man who has more good ideas per minute than anyone else in the Bay Area.
马克·安德森 (Marc Andreessen) 将巴拉吉描述为湾区每分钟提出的好主意比任何人都多的人。
He is the CEO of Earn.com, where we’re sitting right now, a board partner at Andreessen Horowitz, formerly a general partner.
他是我们现在所在的 Earn.com 的首席执行官，也是 Andreessen Horowitz 的董事会合伙人，以前是普通合伙人。
He has cofounded the company Counsyl in addition to many other achievements.
除了许多其他成就外，他还共同创立了 Counsyl 公司。
On top of all that, being thought of as simply one of the most generative thinkers, talkers, and speakers in Silicon Valley.
最重要的是，他被认为是硅谷最有创造力的思想家、演讲家和演说家之一。
Balaji, thank you for doing this.
巴拉吉，谢谢你这么做。
Tyler, nice to see you.
泰勒，很高兴见到你。
My first question, I suppose, is about management.
我想我的第一个问题是关于管理的。
There are amazing achievements from the tech sector, but a lot of them seem to cover software or other services that are very rapidly scalable.
科技领域取得了惊人的成就，但其中很多似乎涵盖了可快速扩展的软件或其他服务。
To what extent do you think the Bay Area has actually come up with a new and innovative management technique for managing smart people better?
您认为湾区在多大程度上实际上已经提出了一种新的创新管理技术来更好地管理聪明人？
Or is it just that you do scalability great?
或者只是因为你的可扩展性很好？
That’s a really good question.
这是一个非常好的问题。
I think the most fundamental concept really boils down to equity, which is to say that in game theory — the simplest game, the two-by-two matrix, whether you’re talking prisoner’s dilemma or something else like that — you want to actually have the upper diagonal where it’s a win-win be obviously better for both parties than any other square on the board, certainly the win-lose or the lose-win case.
我认为最基本的概念实际上可以归结为公平，也就是说，在博弈论中 ——最简单的博弈，二乘二矩阵，无论你是在谈论囚徒困境还是其他类似的东西 ——你实际上希望双赢的上对角线对双方来说明显比棋盘上任何其他方格都更好，当然是双输或双赢的情况。
What equity does, it takes that from the two-by-two to the two-by-two-by-two-by-two case, the 2^k case, where even if you have k parties, all of them realize that their highest payoff is from the win/win quandrant— that is to say, when the company exits, that’s what makes them the most money — than anything that would be an off-diagonal, political thing to do, which benefits them at the expense of somebody else.
股权的作用是，从二乘二到二乘二乘二乘二的情况，即 2^k 的情况，即使你有 k 个参与方，他们都意识到他们的最高回报来自双赢象限——也就是说，当公司退出时，这就是让他们赚到最多钱的原因 ——比任何非对角线的、政治性的事情都要做，这会让他们以牺牲利益为代价而受益。别人。
So the most fundamental management technique I think that the Bay Area has pioneered is introduction of equity and company stock options as a given.
因此，我认为湾区开创的最基本的管理技术是引入股权和公司股票期权作为给定。
Say we took Silicon Valley or San Francisco managers and brought them into the healthcare sector.
假设我们聘请了硅谷或旧金山的经理并将他们带入医疗保健行业。
Is there a low-hanging fruit that could be reaped from what you’ve all done here?
从你们在这里所做的一切中，是否有一个唾手可得的成果可以收获？
The healthcare sector’s a very large area.
医疗保健行业是一个非常大的领域。
I’d say that if you separate it out into, let’s say, health IT and electronic medical records and then diagnostics and then, let’s say, prosthetics, then you get to therapeutics and gene therapy and vaccines and things like that.
我想说的是，如果你把它分为健康信息技术和电子病历，然后是诊断，然后是假肢，然后你就会得到治疗、基因治疗和疫苗等等。
That’s kind of a gradation of risk and also gradation of, let’s say, susceptibility to a software-based attack.
这是一种风险等级，也是对基于软件的攻击的敏感性的等级。
For example, health IT and EMR, that’s directly within our wheelhouse of software.
例如，健康 IT 和电子病历 (EMR) 就直接在我们的软件掌控范围内。
There’s a lot of companies that are working on that already.
已经有很多公司在这方面开展工作。
Diagnostics is something I’m also pretty familiar with.
诊断也是我非常熟悉的事情。
It’s about half physical, and the rest of it’s digital.
大约一半是实体的，其余部分是数字的。
Prosthetics, again, is like robotics, and even though there’s invasive aspects of it, you can get pretty far thinking of it as a software and hardware kind of thing and less messy biology.
再次强调，假肢就像机器人技术，尽管它有侵入性的方面，但你可以将它视为一种软件和硬件之类的东西，而不是那么混乱的生物学。
It’s when you get to therapeutics and when you get to gene therapy, when you get to vaccines and drugs that are under CDER or CBER, that’s where it gets difficult.
当你进行治疗、基因治疗、CDER 或 CBER 下的疫苗和药物时，这就是困难所在。
If you break healthcare up into those segments, some of them are amenable to startups and Silicon Valley techniques today, and some of them not for some time.
如果你将医疗保健细分为这些细分市场，其中一些领域适合当今的初创公司和硅谷技术，而另一些则在一段时间内不适合。
As you know, we live in a country where really large numbers of parents are afraid or unwilling to vaccinate their children.
如您所知，我们生活在一个很多父母害怕或不愿意给孩子接种疫苗的国家。
Or maybe they do so with hesitation.
或者他们可能会犹豫不决。
How is it that we explain to them they’re going to get something on the blockchain?
我们如何向他们解释他们将在区块链上得到一些东西？
It’s sinister, it’s inhabited by Satan, it will eat out the interior of their minds.
它是险恶的，它是撒旦居住的地方，它会蚕食他们内心的心灵。
How does this work?
这是如何运作的？
What’s the role of the new Silicon Valley CEO?
新任硅谷首席执行官的角色是什么？
Well, that’s mixing a bunch of different things together.
嗯，这就是将一堆不同的东西混合在一起。
I’d say vaccines are a real edge case for folks who are generally “live and let live” because while you wouldn’t want to interfere with someone’s choice of clothes or their choice of food necessarily, if they don’t believe in vaccines, and their child or themselves has a contagious disease, then it can screw up other people’s livelihoods and lives.
我想说，对于那些通常“自己活，也让别人活”的人来说，疫苗是一个真正的边缘案例，因为虽然你不想干涉别人选择衣服或选择食物，但如果他们不相信疫苗，并且他们的孩子或他们自己患有传染病，那么它可能会毁掉其他人的生计和生活。
I’m not sure that’s something that a software CEO could attack.
我不确定软件首席执行官是否可以攻击这一点。
It’s kind of an education problem.
这是一个教育问题。
I do think that folks who are against vaccination, if they wanted to self-quarantine, that would be good.
我确实认为那些反对接种疫苗的人如果想自我隔离那会很好。
Since they’re not going to do so, then it’s a challenging problem.
既然他们不会这样做，那么这是一个具有挑战性的问题。
It’s one that I don’t think software really has a solution to at this point.
我认为目前软件还没有真正解决这个问题。
On designing journalism from scratch
论从头开始设计新闻
If you were designing journalism from scratch, what would it look like?
如果你从头开始设计新闻业，它会是什么样子？
That’s an interesting question.
这是一个有趣的问题。
It would have much, much more involvement of people on the ground and many, many, many more part-time journalists and people who wouldn’t even call themselves journalists.
它将有更多、更多的实地人员、更多、更多、更多的兼职记者和那些甚至不称自己为记者的人参与。
For example, the person who’s actually on the scene with a smartphone — everybody now has a 24/7 internet-connected video camera with all kinds of software on it.
例如，实际在现场使用智能手机的人 ——现在每个人都拥有一台 24/7 全天候联网的摄像机，上面装有各种软件。
Korea pioneered something like this called OhmyNews a while back.
不久前，韩国率先推出了类似 OhmyNews 的服务。
It’s still possibly going.
它仍然有可能继续。
I haven’t followed it very closely.
我没有很仔细地关注它。
A model like that on a global scale, where you’re effectively paying folks in lots of different countries to collect news, is interesting.
在全球范围内，这样的模式很有趣，你可以有效地付钱给许多不同国家的人们来收集新闻。
The news problem, of course, is a much, much bigger thing.
当然，新闻问题是一个非常非常大的问题。
There’s still verification, right?
还是有验证的吧？
There’s still verification, yes.
还有验证，是的。
Especially with phony video being easier and easier.
尤其是随着虚假视频变得越来越容易。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
One thing that’s a secondary point but somewhat related is, typically what people do is they will take, let’s say, war reporting and Kim Kardashian–type reporting and put them on opposite ends of the spectrum like, “This is your eat-your-vegetables stuff,” and “This is your infotainment.”
有一件事是次要的，但有些相关的是，通常人们所做的就是他们会采取战争报道和金·卡戴珊式的报道，并将它们放在光谱的两端，比如“这是你吃蔬菜的东西”和“这是你的信息娱乐”。
I would actually group them at the same region and put, let’s say, tutorials on the other side.
实际上，我会将它们分组在同一区域，然后将教程放在另一侧。
Here’s why.
原因如下。
Whether it’s about Afghanistan or Iraq or the Kardashians, that’s a story whose facts you can’t independently verify, versus a tutorial on a new piece of software or how to fly a drone.
无论是关于阿富汗、伊拉克还是卡戴珊家族，这都是一个你无法独立核实事实的故事，而不是关于新软件或如何驾驶无人机的教程。
Tutorials are something you can independently verify since you can fact-check every single line by going through it yourself.
教程是您可以独立验证的内容，因为您可以通过亲自查看每一行来进行事实检查。
What I think is likely to happen is, you’re going to see more news that falls into that news-you-can-use category where, if people are concerned about the veracity, it’s got an inbuilt fact-checking mechanism because you’re actually executing every single line as you read it.
我认为可能发生的是，你会看到更多属于“可以使用的新闻”类别的新闻，如果人们担心准确性，它有一个内置的事实检查机制，因为你在阅读时实际上正在执行每一行。
This will involve micropayments and the blockchain?
这会涉及到小额支付和区块链？
There is one aspect that it might.
从一方面来看可能是这样。
While I certainly think about the blockchain a lot, the part that’s relevant here is prediction markets.
虽然我确实经常思考区块链，但这里相关的部分是预测市场。
While people have often talked about it — lots of people write op-ed columns — there’s no record of whether they were correct or not in their predictions.
虽然人们经常谈论它——“很多人写专栏”——但没有记录表明他们的预测是否正确。
People who opine for a living don’t traditionally have a way of collecting, “Hey, I was right about this, wrong about that.” Venture capitalists do.
以发表意见为生的人传统上没有收集的方式，“嘿，我对这个是对的，对那个是错的。”风险投资家就是这么做的。
It’s called returns.
这就是所谓的回报。
COWEN: That’s right.
考恩：没错。
You could potentially bring something like that to a wider audience if you nail the whole prediction markets thing.
如果你把整个预测市场搞清楚，你就有可能把类似的东西带给更广泛的受众。
That’s something people have talked about for some time.
这是人们谈论了一段时间的事情。
It’s newly feasible with blockchain.
区块链现在变得可行。
Maybe someone will take a crack at that.
也许有人会对此进行尝试。
Why aren’t private companies more interested in prediction markets?
为什么私营公司对预测市场不更感兴趣？
This has long been a puzzle to me.
这一直是我的一个困惑。
Several reasons.
有几个原因。
First is, private companies have the market itself, namely, the stock market, the commodities market, the bond market, where people are paying .
首先是，私营企业本身有市场，即股票市场、大宗商品市场、债券市场，人们在那里付费。
.
。
.
。
But that’s conditional on many different decisions.
但这取决于许多不同的决定。
Correct.
正确的。
You could have a conditional market: “If we do X, what do you all think?”
你可以有一个有条件的市场：“如果我们做X，你们都觉得怎么样？”
Yes, except the problem is that those real markets have real money, and all the folks playing in those markets are really playing to win.
是的，但问题是那些真正的市场有真金白银，所有在这些市场上玩的人都是为了赢而玩。
Whereas a toy market — at least that’s what we were perceived as at the beginning — we don’t have the dollar totals required to be interesting.
而玩具市场 ——至少我们一开始是这么认为的—— 我们没有足够的美元总额来吸引人们的兴趣。
It might only have academic nerds as part of it, as opposed to folks trying to game the system.
它可能只有学术呆子作为其中的一部分，而不是试图玩弄系统的人。
It wouldn’t be, let’s say, as reflective of reality and wouldn’t have the predictive value as the real markets do.
可以说，它不会反映现实，也不会像真实市场那样具有预测价值。
That may be one reason that private companies have not adopted it.
这可能是私营公司没有采用它的原因之一。
But if people value something — take Bitcoin.
但如果人们看重某样东西，那就选择比特币。
When Satoshi started it — if that’s even the right word — it was the weirdest possible thing, and that is well underway and then some, after basically 10 years.
当中本聪开始它时——“如果这个词是正确的的话——”这是最奇怪的事情，并且正在顺利进行，然后是一些，基本上在 10 年后。
The iPhone comes out.
iPhone问世了。
There’s plenty of markets in iPhones and things that go with iPhones.
iPhone 以及与 iPhone 相关的产品有很多市场。
Prediction markets — it shouldn’t seem that jump-starting should be that hard.
预测市场 — 启动起来似乎并不那么困难。
You get liquidity, people want to trade, companies want to do them — just like changing accounting practices or many other things that happen all the time.
你获得了流动性，人们想要进行交易，公司想要进行交易 ——就像改变会计实践或许多其他一直在发生的事情一样。
Do we not want to know the truth within companies?
难道我们不想了解公司内部的真相吗？
As I said, I do think people will take another crack at this with the blockchain because the blockchain has not just made it much easier to start your own currency in your drawing room; it has also made it much more easy to start your own marketplace.
正如我所说，我确实认为人们会用区块链来解决这个问题，因为区块链不仅使在客厅里创建自己的货币变得更加容易；而且还使人们更容易地使用区块链。它还使创建自己的市场变得更加容易。
So the threshold for starting a new market has dropped dramatically.
因此，开拓新市场的门槛大幅下降。
Maybe we’re going to see some innovation in that in the years to come.
也许在未来几年我们会看到一些创新。
On designing academia from scratch
论从头开始设计学术界
If you were designing academia from scratch, what would that look like?
如果你从头开始设计学术界，那会是什么样子？
Ah, that’s interesting.
啊，这很有趣。
I think a lot about the culture of open source versus peer review.
我对开源文化与同行评审文化进行了很多思考。
The distinction is, in open source, bugs are expected.
区别在于，在开源中，错误是预料之中的。
Reproducibility is a function of your ability to execute the source code.
可重复性取决于您执行源代码的能力。
Everything is fundamentally transparent because it’s all published.
一切基本上都是透明的，因为它们都是公开的。
And you publish first, and then people review it and give feedback second, as opposed to the academic model.
你首先发布，然后人们对其进行审查并提供反馈，这与学术模式相反。
Like in the Clay Shirky model, right?
就像 Clay Shirky 模型一样，对吗？
Exactly.
确切地。
If you think about academia, all of those are inverted.
如果你想想学术界，所有这些都是相反的。
For example, a retraction or a correction in academia is a real blemish on your career.
例如，学术界的撤稿或纠正对你的职业生涯来说是一个真正的瑕疵。
It can be a very big deal.
这可能是一件大事。
Whereas in open source, it’s expected.
而在开源中，这是预期的。
You’ve got very popular repositories up with thousands of bug reports.
您拥有非常受欢迎的存储库，其中包含数千个错误报告。
You go and publish it first and get it peer-reviewed second.
你先去发布它，然后再进行同行评审。
And many, many papers are not at all transparent in their methods or their data.
许多论文的方法或数据根本不透明。
I’d like to see a more open source–like culture.
我希望看到一种更加开源的文化。
That can really only happen when the incentives of academia are aligned towards open source.
只有当学术界的激励措施与开源保持一致时，这种情况才会真正发生。
Right now, the grants model is not conducive to that.
目前，赠款模式对此并不有利。
Would you bundle research and teaching the way we do it now, or you have another proposal?
您是否会像我们现在那样将研究和教学结合起来，或者您有其他建议？
What’s starting to happen is, a lot of the folks in a previous generation who would have gone on to be, let’s say, professors at Stanford are increasingly saying, “Hey, look.
正在发生的事情是，许多上一代人后来成为斯坦福大学的教授，越来越多地说：“嘿，看。
Why should I go and spend all this effort for a few hundred thousand dollars for a grant when I can spend a comparable amount of effort, start a company, exit it, and get a few million dollars, and then fund the equivalent of graduate students via angel investments?”
当我可以花费相当多的努力，创办一家公司，退出它，获得几百万美元，然后通过天使投资资助相当于研究生的资金时，为什么我要花费所有这些努力来获得几十万美元的资助呢？”
The division between research and teaching comes from basically the 20th century.
研究和教学之间的划分基本上来自20世纪。
What you could instead get is something where you start out as a practitioner.
相反，你可以得到的是你从练习者开始的东西。
Then you do a bunch of angel investments.
然后你进行大量天使投资。
Then you spend some time researching.
然后你花一些时间研究。
And then you go and put up a MOOC lecture, and you teach what you’ve learned.
然后你去举办 MOOC 讲座，教授你所学到的东西。
It’s more organic, where some people will focus just on one thing, some on other things.
它更加有机，有些人会只专注于一件事，有些人会专注于其他事情。
Some will do a mix.
有些会混合。
But it’s going to be more commercially aligned, the entirety of it, as opposed to just being in academia.
但它的整体性将更加商业化，而不仅仅是学术界。
On why geography still matters — for now
关于为什么地理仍然重要 — 目前
Why is the venture capital model so geographically clustered?
为什么风险投资模式在地理上如此集中？
So much of it is out here in the Bay Area.
其中大部分都在湾区。
It’s spreading to other parts of the country.
它正在蔓延到该国其他地区。
Around the world, you see Israel, in some ways, as being number two, per capita number one.
在世界各地，你会看到以色列在某些方面排名第二，人均排名第一。
But that’s a very small country.
但这是一个非常小的国家。
Why is it so hard to get venture capital off the ground in so many areas?
为什么在如此多的领域获得风险投资如此困难？
That’s actually now changed with the advent of ICOs and Ethereum and crypto.
事实上，随着 ICO、以太坊和加密货币的出现，这种情况已经发生了变化。
Historically, the reason for it was companies would come to Sand Hill Road.
从历史上看，这样做的原因是公司会来到沙山路。
One maybe slightly less appreciated aspect is, if you come to Sand Hill Road and you get VC financing, the VC who invests in your company typically takes a board seat.
一个可能不太受重视的方面是，如果你来到沙山路并获得风险投资融资，投资你公司的风险投资人通常会占据董事会席位。
A VC does not want to fly 6,000 miles for every board seat if they’ve got 10 board seats and four board meetings a year per company.
如果每个公司有 10 个董事会席位并且每年召开 4 次董事会会议，风险投资家不会希望为每个董事会席位飞 6,000 英里。
What a VC would like in general, all else being equal, is for you to be within driving distance.
一般来说，在其他条件相同的情况下，风险投资家希望你能在开车距离之内。
Not only does that VC like it, so does the next VC in the B round and the next VC in the C round.
不仅那个VC喜欢它，B轮的下一个VC和C轮的下一个VC也喜欢它。
That factor is actually one of the big things that constrains people to the Bay Area, is VC driving distance, because VCs don’t want to do investments that are an entire world away.
这个因素实际上是限制人们来到湾区的一大因素，就是风险投资的行驶距离，因为风险投资不想进行遥远的投资。
With the advent of Ethereum and ICOs, we have finally begun to decentralize the last piece, which was funding.
随着以太坊和 ICO 的出现，我们终于开始去中心化最后一块，那就是资金。
Now, that regulatory environment needs to be worked out.
现在，需要解决这个监管环境。
It’s going to be worked out in different ways in different countries.
不同的国家会以不同的方式解决这个问题。
But the old era where you had to come to Sand Hill to get your company funded and then go to Wall Street to exit is over.
但你必须先到沙山为公司融资，然后再到华尔街退出的旧时代已经结束了。
That’s something where it’s going to increasingly decentralize.
这是它将日益去中心化的地方。
It already has decentralized worldwide, and that’s going to continue.
它已经在全球范围内去中心化，而且这种情况还将持续下去。
With or without a board seat, doesn’t funding require a face-to-face relationship?
无论有没有董事会席位，融资都不需要面对面的关系吗？
It’s common for VC companies to even want the people they’re funding to move their endeavor to the Bay Area in some way, not only for the board meeting.
风险投资公司甚至希望他们资助的人以某种方式将他们的努力转移到湾区，而不仅仅是为了董事会会议，这是很常见的。
They want to spend time with those people.
他们想与那些人共度时光。
We’re doing this podcast face to face.
我们正在面对面做这个播客。
We could have done it over Skype.
我们本来可以通过 Skype 来完成。
There’s something significant about actually having an emotionally vivid connection with someone right there in the room.
与房间里的某个人建立情感上生动的联系是很重要的。
How much can we get around that as a basic constraint?
我们可以在多大程度上绕过这个基本约束？
Obviously, in-person is always going to be valuable so long as we’re physical beings.
显然，只要我们是有形的存在，面对面的交流就总是有价值的。
But I do think that there’s a number of things that have (a) made remote work better and (b) made the Bay Area more disadvantageous.
但我确实认为，有很多因素（a）使远程工作变得更好，（b）使湾区更加不利。
I’ll list a few of the factors.
我将列出一些因素。
First, soaring rents in the Bay Area.
首先，湾区租金飙升。
But that’s precisely because face to face is efficient.
但这正是因为面对面的交流更有效率。
True, but at a certain point, what happens is, price is a signal.
确实如此，但在某个时刻，价格就是一个信号。
The ‘rest of the world’ is literally everywhere outside of the Bay Area.
“世界其他地方”实际上是湾区以外的任何地方。
There’s a lot of places that are cheaper, that are safer if you’ve got a family, that have better weather.
有很多地方更便宜，如果你有家人的话会更安全，而且天气也更好。
The Bay Area has got decent weather, but there’s places that are nicer, that have a lower cost of living.
湾区气候宜人，但也有更好的地方，生活成本也较低。
Very expensive over here.
这里非常贵。
You don’t have the same issue with engineers getting poached.
对于工程师被挖走，你不会遇到同样的问题。
That’s a big issue at many companies in Silicon Valley.
这是硅谷许多公司面临的一个大问题。
There’s a list of reasons that are starting to pile up that make the Bay Area less and less attractive from a comparative standpoint.
从比较的角度来看，越来越多的原因导致湾区的吸引力越来越低。
Then on the pull side, remote work is getting better.
从拉动的角度来看，远程工作正在变得越来越好。
Every year, it gets better, whether it’s Slack or whether it’s mobile phones getting better.
每年，它都在变得更好，无论是 Slack 还是手机都在变得更好。
But face to face gets better, too, because Slack is a complement to face-to-face interaction.
但面对面的交流也会变得更好，因为 Slack 是面对面互动的补充。
It’s making both the remote and the direct better.
它使远程和直接传输都变得更好。
Is it changing the ratio?
是不是改变了比例？
Yeah, at least anecdotally.
是的，至少从传闻来看是这样。
What I found is, a lot of the companies that I’ve been working with have a Bay Area HQ, where your hubs are in-person and your spokes are international.
我发现，与我合作的许多公司都设有湾区总部，您的中心是面对面的，您的辐条是国际性的。
What I mean by that is, it is true that executive functions, management, things like that where you’re managing people, then face to face is good.
我的意思是，确实，执行职能、管理等你管理人员的事情，然后面对面是好的。
Whiteboard sessions are good, et cetera.
白板会议很好，等等。
If you’re really just primarily working with electrons, you don’t need face to face as much, and you can be on your own schedule.
如果你真的只是主要研究电子，那么你不需要那么多面对面的交流，而且你可以按照自己的日程安排。
Let’s say, if you’re a manager, if you’re an executive, yes, face to face is still probably necessary.
比方说，如果你是一名经理，如果你是一名高管，是的，面对面可能仍然是必要的。
But as an engineer, it’s less and less necessary, I think.
但我认为，作为一名工程师，它的必要性越来越小。
If you try to think it through, what’s the main failing at the margin of telepresence?
如果你仔细想一想，远程呈现的主要缺陷是什么？
If I said, “Well, I think the main failing is you cannot send smells over telepresence,” that doesn’t sound plausible.
如果我说，“嗯，我认为主要的失败是你不能通过远程呈现发送气味”，这听起来不太合理。
It seems you could get on with people and work with them face to face, even if you didn’t have a sense of smell.
即使你没有嗅觉，你似乎也可以与人相处并面对面地与他们一起工作。
What exactly is the thing that’s missing if we get into a very good teleconferencing room, we all sit around the table, speak to people on the screen?
如果我们进入一个非常好的电话会议室，我们都坐在桌子旁，与屏幕上的人交谈，那么到底缺少了什么？
If not smell, what is absent that makes that less valuable?
如果没有气味，那么缺少什么会降低其价值呢？
A really good question.
一个非常好的问题。
I’ve thought about this a lot, actually.
事实上，我想了很多。
There’s two technologies that are obviously going to converge.
有两种技术显然会融合。
The first are these Anybots or Double Robotics-type things, which are basically like an iPad on wheels, which you can remotely control like a video game, roll it around, et cetera.
第一个是 Anybots 或 Double Robotics 类型的东西，它们基本上就像带轮子的 iPad，你可以像视频游戏一样远程控制它，滚动它等等。
The second are the Boston Dynamics–style humanoid robots, which can do grasping and other kinds of things.
第二种是波士顿动力公司风格的人形机器人，它可以做抓取和其他类型的事情。
They’ve got a humanoid form factor.
他们有一个人形外形。
Eventually, those two technologies plus a VR bodysuit are going to be combined, such that you can, maybe in 10 years, script a robot from around the world.
最终，这两种技术加上 VR 紧身衣将被结合起来，这样你就可以在 10 年内编写来自世界各地的机器人的脚本。
You’ll be able to basically see through the eyes of the robot, and you can actually actuate it and move the arms through the VR bodysuit.
您基本上可以通过机器人的眼睛看到，并且可以实际驱动它并通过 VR 紧身衣移动手臂。
I’ve done this giving a talk, by the way.
顺便说一句，我已经在演讲中做到了这一点。
I don’t know how it was for the audience, but it does, in some literal sense, work.
我不知道观众的感受如何，但从字面意义上来说，它确实有效。
Right.
正确的。
The thing is that the robotics have to be better.
问题是机器人技术必须变得更好。
The bandwidth has to be better.
带宽必须更好。
All that stuff has to be better.
所有这些东西都必须变得更好。
And when it does get better, an interesting thing happens.
当情况确实好转时，有趣的事情就会发生。
Your immigration policy becomes your firewall.
您的移民政策将成为您的防火墙。
That is to say, someone can “immigrate” to your country over an internet connection, connect to a robot, animate it, and start walking it around.
也就是说，某人可以通过互联网连接“移民”到您的国家，连接到机器人，为其设置动画，然后开始遛它。
Now your ability to interdict those internet connections is your immigration policy.
现在，您阻止这些互联网连接的能力就是您的移民政策。
That has massive implications for all kinds of things.
这对各种事情都有巨大的影响。
Among other things, you wouldn’t have to travel thousands of miles to get a job as a day laborer.
除此之外，你不必长途跋涉才能找到一份临时工的工作。
You could literally comparison shop between jurisdictions.
您实际上可以在司法管辖区之间进行比较。
Even migrant work–type labor could eventually become software, which is really amazing because then they could get a higher wage.
即使是打工型的劳动力最终也可能成为软件，这真是太神奇了，因为这样他们就可以获得更高的工资。
Potentially, they could always go to the best market.
潜在地，他们总能进入最好的市场。
There’s going to be some really interesting things that happen with telepresence in the medium term.
从中期来看，远程呈现将会发生一些非常有趣的事情。
We’re not there yet, about 5 to 10 years.
我们还没到那一步，大约需要 5 到 10 年。
There’s some evidence, say, from soccer that peripheral vision is an important determinant of whether you’re a good soccer player or a great soccer player — how much you take in around you that is not obviously the thing you’re tasked with doing.
例如，有一些来自足球的证据表明，余光是决定你是一名优秀足球运动员还是一名伟大足球运动员的重要决定因素——你对周围事物的了解有多少，而这显然不是你的任务要做的事情。
Maybe one problem with telepresence, it’s simply hard to test or try out other people’s peripheral vision because exactly they’re focused on looking at you.
也许远程呈现的一个问题是，很难测试或尝试其他人的余光，因为他们正专注于看着你。
You don’t see how they take in the surprises because they’re insulated from those because they’re pointed at you in some way.
你看不到他们如何接受惊喜，因为他们以某种方式指向你，因此与这些惊喜隔绝。
I think that is solvable though.
我认为这是可以解决的。
A lot of the VR work nowadays is focused on field of view and peripheral vision and making it feel more immersive.
现在很多 VR 作品都专注于视野和周边视觉，使其感觉更加身临其境。
You just need the right kind of cameras on the robot and the right latency and whatnot.
你只需要机器人上有合适类型的摄像头和合适的延迟等等。
That’s potentially solvable.
这可能是可以解决的。
But you’re right: It does need to become more immersive.
但你是对的：它确实需要变得更加身临其境。
Eventually, though, it may cross over and become something where people prefer that than travel because they can go to Egypt and they can go to Japan and they can go to the UK all within the same day without any jet lag.
但最终，它可能会跨越并成为人们比旅行更喜欢的事情，因为他们可以去埃及，他们可以去日本，他们可以在同一天内去英国，而没有任何时差。
They’ll literally move at the speed of light.
它们实际上会以光速移动。
On how tech is changing compulsory education
科技如何改变义务教育
Here’s a very general question.
这是一个非常普遍的问题。
Right now, children, especially in the Bay Area, they grow up with so much tech.
现在，孩子们，尤其是湾区的孩子们，在科技的陪伴下长大。
It surrounds them all the time — iPad, smartphone, apps, whatever it may be.
它无时无刻不在围绕着他们——iPad、智能手机、应用程序，无论是什么。
They learn how to use it very young.
他们很小的时候就学会了如何使用它。
There are costs and benefits to this.
这样做有成本也有好处。
Overall, I would say I’m optimistic about it.
总的来说，我想说我对此持乐观态度。
But just in general, what is the implicit ideological commitment or value judgment we’re making by just allowing this to proceed?
但总的来说，我们通过允许这种情况进行来隐含的意识形态承诺或价值判断是什么？
How do you think about that decision?
您如何看待这个决定？
The state has six hours of compulsory education per day.
国家每天实行六小时义务教育。
What’s interesting is the network is getting a lot of those hours and taking them away from the state because the kids are plugged into their laptops and iPads and iPhones and self-educating during the period they’re supposed to be having compulsory state education.
有趣的是，网络占用了大量的时间，并把他们从州里带走，因为孩子们在本应接受义务州教育的期间，会使用笔记本电脑、iPad 和 iPhone 进行自学。
There’s an interesting thing that’s happening there, where you’re having kids plugged into a different network, not the state-approved network, during their nascent years.
那里发生了一件有趣的事情，你让孩子们在他们的幼年时期接入不同的网络，而不是国家批准的网络。
They’re plugged into the internet and their own sub-communities and subcultures.
他们接入互联网以及自己的子社区和亚文化。
So the state has a lot less control over kids as they’re coming up.
因此，当孩子们即将成长时，国家对他们的控制要少得多。
The state has six hours of compulsory education per day.
国家每天实行六小时义务教育。
What’s interesting is the network is getting a lot of those hours and taking them away from the state because the kids are plugged into their laptops and iPads and iPhones and self-educating during the period they’re supposed to be having compulsory state education.
有趣的是，网络占用了大量的时间，并把他们从州里带走，因为孩子们在本应接受义务州教育的期间，会使用笔记本电脑、iPad 和 iPhone 进行自学。
There’s an interesting thing that’s happening there, where you’re having kids plugged into a different network, not the state-approved network, during their nascent years.
那里发生了一件有趣的事情，你让孩子们在他们的幼年时期接入不同的网络，而不是国家批准的网络。
They’re plugged into the internet and their own sub-communities and subcultures.
他们接入互联网以及自己的子社区和亚文化。
So the state has a lot less control over kids as they’re coming up.
因此，当孩子们即将成长时，国家对他们的控制要少得多。
If you go all the way back to how Bismarck instituted public education and whatnot, it was really to raise children who were “obedient to the state,” who were patriots or however you want to call it.
如果你一直追溯到俾斯麦如何建立公共教育之类的东西，它实际上是为了培养“服从国家”的孩子，他们是爱国者，或者无论你怎么称呼它。
Because that acculturation is happening less and less because kids are getting plugged into folks who have different ideologies at a much younger age, I think that’s got a lot of interesting medium-term consequences.
由于孩子们在很小的时候就接触到拥有不同意识形态的人，这种文化适应的情况越来越少，我认为这会产生很多有趣的中期后果。
Some parents would say there’s a potential maybe addiction risk, if that’s the right word, or maybe an attention risk.
一些家长会说，如果这个词合适的话，可能存在潜在的成瘾风险，或者可能是注意力风险。
Then on the plus side, there’s a lot more information, more freedom of thought.
从好的方面来说，有更多的信息，更自由的思想。
If you’re an unusual child, you can connect with others like you more readily.
如果您是一个不寻常的孩子，您可以更轻松地与像您一样的人建立联系。
How much do you think we know now those are positive tradeoffs?
您认为我们现在知道多少是积极的权衡？
I think that, on balance, it’s more upside, more downside, like everything technology is doing.
我认为，总的来说，它有更多的好处，也有更多的坏处，就像科技正在做的一切一样。
That’s my one-liner for the future: more upside, more downside.
这是我对未来的一句台词：有更多的好处，也有更多的坏处。
In this context, of course, downsides are obvious.
当然，在这种情况下，缺点是显而易见的。
You have kids who are less able to make eye contact because they’re staring at a screen all day.
有些孩子不太能够进行眼神交流，因为他们整天盯着屏幕。
Literally maybe, their eye physically can’t focus at medium distance as much anymore.
从字面上看，他们的眼睛在身体上可能无法再在中距离聚焦。
You’ve got kids who — it’s harder for them to focus on books and to do deep reading because they’re constantly distracted by all these notifications.
有些孩子 ——他们很难专注于书籍并进行深度阅读，因为他们经常被所有这些通知分散注意力。
The downsides are obvious.
缺点是显而易见的。
The upsides, of course, are that you have access to the Library of Alexandria for free any time.
当然，好处是您可以随时免费进入亚历山大图书馆。
If you’re really good at math or computer science or have any interest like that, you can actually find other people.
如果你真的擅长数学或计算机科学或者有任何类似的兴趣，你实际上可以找到其他人。
You’re not forced into this one-size-fits-all 12 years of quasi-jail that modern American public schools are.
你不会被迫进入现代美国公立学校那样一刀切的 12 年准监狱。
Instead you can self-educate and self-advance and level up.
相反，你可以自我教育、自我进步和升级。
So on balance, I think it’s probably better.
所以总的来说，我认为这可能更好。
It’s probably positive on net.
网上可能是正面的。
Though we want to figure out some way to ameliorate those downsides.
尽管我们希望找到一些方法来改善这些缺点。
On exit and voice
退出时和语音
You’ve given a very famous talk, or several talks actually, on the ideas of exit and voice in the global community — the idea that your ability to leave a government can induce liberty and wealth-creating policies.
您就退出和在国际社会中发出声音的想法进行了一次非常著名的演讲，或者实际上是几次演讲，即您离开政府的能力可以带来自由和创造财富的政策。
If we have a theory where exit is important as a source of liberty, how do we explain that liberty seems to be declining in all of the world’s leaders, or most of them?
如果我们有一种理论认为退出作为自由的一个重要来源，那么我们如何解释世界上所有或大多数领导人的自由似乎都在下降？
Now, I think, the whole axis is tilting back the other way where, because they were civilizationally vaccinated against the lure of communism due to the 20th century, the Chinese, the Russians, the Eastern Europeans have a civilizational memory of why that was a bad idea.
现在，我认为，整个轴心正在向另一个方向倾斜，因为中国人、俄罗斯人、东欧人在文明上接种了疫苗，抵御了20世纪共产主义的诱惑，所以他们有文明的记忆，知道为什么这是一个坏主意。
So they’ve reacted against it by establishing these states, which are not necessarily all totally free-market capitalist in the best ways but certainly are not what you’d call hardcore communist.
因此，他们通过建立这些国家来对此做出反应，这些国家不一定是最好的完全自由市场资本主义，但肯定不是你所说的铁杆共产主义。
They’re not mass-murdering people and seizing their land anymore.
他们不再大规模屠杀人民并夺取他们的土地。
That affects society in many different ways.
这以许多不同的方式影响社会。
Basically, people have this near-term 30-years-ago-memory of “Hey, that was actually a bad idea to try to move in that direction politically.”
基本上，人们对 30 年前的记忆有这样的印象：“嘿，试图在政治上朝这个方向前进实际上是一个坏主意。”
Right now, are you more bullish on large political units or small political units?
现在，您更看好大型政治单位还是小型政治单位？
Small countries in general, with one major exception, which is China.
一般而言，小国只有一个例外，那就是中国。
I think in general, the countries that are going to win the future will be Estonia, Singapore, Israel — very software-savvy small countries where their leaders are basically almost like software CEOs.
我认为总的来说，赢得未来的国家将是爱沙尼亚、新加坡、以色列——这些非常精通软件的小国家，他们的领导人基本上就像软件首席执行官一样。
What I mean by that is, for example, Estonia’s president, Toomas Ilves, literally a computer scientist.
我的意思是，例如，爱沙尼亚总统托马斯·伊尔维斯（Toomas Ilves），名副其实的计算机科学家。
Lee Hsien Loong, who is Lee Kuan Yew’s son, was the wrangler at Cambridge, very smart guy.
李显龙是李光耀的儿子，是剑桥大学的争论者，非常聪明的人。
Netanyahu is an MIT graduate.
内塔尼亚胡是麻省理工学院的毕业生。
Those are three examples of folks who are pretty software savvy as leaders of their country.
这三个例子都是作为国家领导人对软件非常精通的人的例子。
I think in general, the countries that are going to win the future will be Estonia, Singapore, Israel — very software-savvy small countries where their leaders are basically almost like software CEOs.
我认为总的来说，赢得未来的国家将是爱沙尼亚、新加坡、以色列——这些非常精通软件的小国家，他们的领导人基本上就像软件首席执行官一样。
China’s also, as a large country, extremely software savvy.
作为一个大国，中国也非常精通软件。
The Great Firewall is an instrument of policy.
防火墙是一种政策工具。
That’s something that they actually think about as a first-class thing.
他们实际上认为这是一流的事情。
Even Putin actually has made recent comments about the blockchain, showing it’s on his radar.
就连普京最近也对区块链发表了评论，表明他正在关注区块链。
He’s maybe U-turning Russia to make that a national priority for them.
他可能正在改变俄罗斯的态度，使其成为他们的国家优先事项。
I’d say, in general, I’m more bullish on small countries.
我想说，总的来说，我更看好小国家。
There may be a few large ones that are software savvy enough to compete.
可能有一些大型企业拥有足够的软件知识来参与竞争。
When it comes to cybersecurity, quite arguably the form of warfare of the future or even the present, is it the small or large countries that have the comparative advantage in either attack or defense?
网络安全可以说是未来甚至现在的战争形式，在攻击或防御方面是小国还是大国拥有比较优势？
That’s interesting.
那很有意思。
Israel has some great cybersecurity people.
以色列拥有一些优秀的网络安全人才。
So does Estonia.
爱沙尼亚也是如此。
So does Singapore.
新加坡也是如此。
So does China — gigantic.
中国也是如此——巨大。
It has a lot.
它有很多。
I’m not sure you can initially correlate that to country size.
我不确定你最初能否将其与国家规模联系起来。
I would say, however, there’s a bunch of these small countries that punch above their weight from a software standpoint.
然而，我想说的是，从软件的角度来看，有很多小国家的表现超出了它们的实力。
Peter Thiel has suggested that, with the onset of artificial intelligence, this will encourage at least authoritarianism of the negative sort, or possibly even totalitarianism.
彼得·蒂尔（Peter Thiel）表示，随着人工智能的出现，这至少会鼓励负面的独裁主义，甚至可能鼓励极权主义。
Do you agree?
你同意？
I thought Peter had an insightful juxtaposition or contrast between blockchain’s decentralizing aspects and AI’s centralizing aspects.
我认为彼得对区块链的去中心化方面和人工智能的中心化方面进行了富有洞察力的并置或对比。
I do think that it’s a little bit complicated by the fact that there’s recent breakthroughs or developments in AI which allow for calculations of the coefficients locally on your phones.
我确实认为这有点复杂，因为人工智能最近取得了突破或发展，允许在手机上本地计算系数。
Without getting super technical, up to this point, typically the way you’ve done machine learning is you’ve centralized all the data, have huge data tables, datasets at your central servers, and then run the analysis.
在没有掌握超级技术的情况下，到目前为止，您完成机器学习的方式通常是集中所有数据，在中央服务器上拥有巨大的数据表和数据集，然后运行分析。
But there’s potentially ways to do it where you basically do a MapReduce out to all of your phones, and you calculate it locally.
但有一些潜在的方法可以做到这一点，你基本上可以对所有手机执行 MapReduce，然后在本地进行计算。
The data and everything stays locally.
数据和所有内容都保留在本地。
This is just a coordinator, but it’s not storing it.
这只是一个协调器，但它不存储它。
Google’s published some research on that.
谷歌发表了一些相关研究。
We’ll see how big that becomes in the years to come.
我们将看到未来几年它会变得有多大。
On the future of identity and privacy
关于身份和隐私的未来
But say I’m in Shenzhen right now, as I understand it, there are several intersections where if I jaywalk, they will do facial surveillance on me, very likely identify me, find me automatically.
但是说我现在在深圳，据我了解，有几个路口，如果我乱穿马路，他们会对我进行面部监控，很有可能识别出我的身份，自动找到我。
There’s a very strong element of control there.
那里有非常强大的控制因素。
In China, if you have a bad social credit score, maybe you can’t ride on the train or take a bus.
在中国，如果你的社会信用评分不好，也许你就不能乘坐火车或乘坐公共汽车。
Why isn’t the future simply easier control of people in this way, which would produce some more local public good but nonetheless be a kind of horrible dystopia that most of us wouldn’t want to live in?
为什么未来不以这种方式更容易地控制人们，这会产生更多的当地公共利益，但仍然是一种我们大多数人都不想生活在其中的可怕的反乌托邦？
I think China may well be vectoring in that direction.
我认为中国很可能正在朝这个方向发展。
The thing about it is, what they’re almost moving AI towards is almost like the all-seeing, all-knowing god of myth.
问题是，他们将人工智能推向的目标几乎就像神话中全知全知的神。
Some of the stuff they’re doing with face recognition is taking all the surveillance footage they have and then turning it into something which can take somebody’s face, pull it out of that, pull it into a database, and then track a human being across the entirety of their life essentially.
他们在人脸识别方面所做的一些事情是获取他们拥有的所有监控录像，然后将其转化为可以获取某人脸部的东西，将其从其中拉出来，将其拉入数据库，然后从本质上跟踪一个人的整个生活。
That takes it from, “Hey, I need to look at the surveillance camera and recognize this person” into something where the computer is recognizing them for me.
这使得它从“嘿，我需要看着监控摄像头并识别出这个人”变成了计算机为我识别他们。
It just completely levels up the threat level of what a surveillance camera is.
它完全提高了监控摄像头的威胁级别。
What do I think that results in?
我认为这会导致什么结果？
It may result in a very low-crime society.
这可能会导致一个犯罪率非常低的社会。
It may be something that certainly does have lots of obvious negative aspects, and I probably wouldn’t want to live in a country like that.
这可能确实有很多明显的负面影响，我可能不想生活在这样的国家。
But it might be something that a lot of people nevertheless choose to live there.
但这可能是很多人选择住在那里的原因。
There’s folks who choose to live in places that you or I or folks in the West would not choose to live in.
有些人选择居住在你我或西方人不会选择居住的地方。
Maybe they think, “Hey, the tradeoffs are worth it.” I wouldn’t.
也许他们会想，“嘿，这种权衡是值得的。”我不会。
Probably most westerners wouldn’t, but I’m not necessarily saying that that’s going to cause their civilization to fail.
也许大多数西方人不会，但我不一定说这会导致他们的文明失败。
A lot of people thought, for example, that the Great Firewall in the early 2000s — because of the restriction of freedom of speech — would cause the Chinese internet to collapse, and it’d be a disaster, and they wouldn’t be able to get innovation and so on.
很多人认为，比如2000年代初的防火墙 ——因为限制言论自由 ——会导致中国互联网崩溃，那是一场灾难，他们就得不到创新等等。
They managed to get very far with the controlled internet.
他们成功地利用受控的互联网走得很远。
I have a little bit of a, for lack of a better term, modesty on this, where as bad as I think that future is, (a) I’m not sure it’s within our power to prevent it, and (b) I’m not sure the Chinese people would want the West to prevent it, or at least not all of them.
由于缺乏更好的术语，对此我有一点谦虚，尽管我认为未来很糟糕，（a）我不确定我们是否有能力阻止它，（b）我不确定中国人民是否希望西方人阻止它，或者至少不是所有人。
That’s where I am on that.
这就是我的观点。
If I call up, say, Apple customer service and I need to prove I’m Tyler Cowen, one thing they might do is ask me for the last four digits of my Social Security number.
比如说，如果我打电话给苹果客户服务部门，并且我需要证明我是泰勒·考恩（Tyler Cowen），他们可能会问我社会安全号码的后四位数字。
This seems absurd.
这似乎很荒谬。
For one thing, that kind of information can be quite readily available.
一方面，这类信息很容易获得。
The future of personal identity — proving you are who you claim to be — say, 10, 15 years from now, what will that look like?
个人身份的未来 —— 证明你就是你所声称的人 —— 比如说，10年、15年后，那会是什么样子？
How will we do it?
我们将如何做呢？
Is it a retina scan?
是视网膜扫描吗？
Is it fingerprint?
是指纹吗？
Is it facial recognition?
是面部识别吗？
How will you prove to the world you’re you?
你将如何向世界证明你就是你？
Good question.
好问题。
I think it’s going to vary depending on the context.
我认为这会根据具体情况而有所不同。
For example, retina scans and biometrics are good in that they’re unique to you.
例如，视网膜扫描和生物识别技术的优点在于它们对您来说是独一无二的。
They’re bad in that there’s no password reset, for example.
例如，它们的缺点是无法重置密码。
If password reset is a core feature of your security system, you may not be able to use that with biometric authentication.
如果密码重置是您安全系统的核心功能，您可能无法将其与生物识别身份验证一起使用。
I think we’re going to have a bunch of different options, from email and phone number auth, username auth, biometrics, et cetera, where it’s just going to fit the particular use case.
我认为我们将有很多不同的选项，从电子邮件和电话号码身份验证、用户名身份验证、生物识别技术等等，它只适合特定的用例。
The exit option — this is debated quite a bit now with Facebook, with Google.
退出选项——现在 Facebook 和谷歌对此争论颇多。
Some people say, “Well, Facebook, you don’t like it, you don’t have to use it.
有些人说，“好吧，Facebook，你不喜欢它，你不必使用它。
You can just exit.” How persuasive do you find this argument?
你就可以退出了。”您认为这个论点有多大说服力？
It’s certainly possible to delete your Facebook account.
当然可以删除您的 Facebook 帐户。
It is possible, with probably some effort, to ban all Facebook.com domains from your local DNS.
只需付出一些努力，就有可能从您的本地 DNS 中禁止所有 Facebook.com 域。
It’s harder to exit Google, but also possible.
退出谷歌比较困难，但也是有可能的。
It’s certainly possible to do it if you went to China because all that stuff is banned and you can have a modern life.
如果你去中国当然可以做到，因为所有这些东西都被禁止，你可以过现代生活。
I understand that the counter to that counterargument is the sheer number of trackers, the ubiquity of it, and it’s hard to live a normal life without having some interaction with those companies.
我知道，这种反驳的反驳是追踪器的数量之多、无处不在，如果不与这些公司进行一些互动，就很难过上正常的生活。
I’m mixed on that in the sense of I personally know how to exit Facebook or Google or whatever if I wanted to do so.
我对此感到困惑，因为我个人知道如何退出 Facebook 或 Google 或其他任何东西，如果我想这样做的话。
I recognize it’s too hard for other people to do so right now.
我认识到其他人现在这样做太难了。
But I think that the right approach is to build exits and build alternatives such that folks can exit from those things and they don’t feel constrained by them.
但我认为正确的方法是建立退出并建立替代方案，以便人们可以退出这些事情，并且不会感到受到它们的限制。
On cryptocurrency
关于加密货币
Let’s turn to cryptocurrency for a bit, an area you know something about.
让我们稍微谈谈加密货币，这是一个你有所了解的领域。
Which of the arguments against the future viability of crypto assets do you find most persuasive, granted that you’re not agreeing with them?
如果您不同意哪些反对加密资产未来生存能力的论点，您认为最有说服力？
What’s the best criticism?
最好的批评是什么？
If someone says, “Oh, cryptocurrencies in 15 years, it won’t be a thing,” what’s the best argument for that point of view?
如果有人说，“哦，加密货币 15 年后，它不会成为一件事”，那么支持这种观点的最佳论据是什么？
That the decentralization model actually doesn’t work and that it’s actually possible to compromise the underlying blockchains.
去中心化模型实际上不起作用，而且实际上有可能损害底层区块链。
Last year, I had an article called “Quantifying Decentralization,” which put forth a metric for how decentralized a given coin is.
去年，我发表了一篇名为“量化去中心化”的文章，其中提出了衡量给定代币去中心化程度的指标。
The idea is that it could be decentralized in terms of how many miners you’d need to compromise to control it or how many developers or how many exchanges or what have you.
这个想法是，它可以根据你需要妥协多少矿工来控制它，或者有多少开发人员或多少交易所或你拥有什么来分散。
And the minimum number of entities that you needed to compromise was the degree of decentralization of the system.
你需要妥协的最小实体数量是系统的去中心化程度。
The utility of that — I’m not saying it’s a perfect metric; it’s imperfect like all metrics — but the utility of that is that you could start to rank order coins by their at least purported level of decentralization.
它的实用性 — 我并不是说这是一个完美的指标；它只是一个完美的指标。它和所有指标一样不完美——但它的实用性在于，你可以开始按照硬币至少声称的去中心化程度对硬币进行排名。
I think insofar as these blockchains fail, it would be because the decentralization models were not robust enough to protect against the attacks they’re supposed to protect against.
我认为，就这些区块链失败而言，这是因为去中心化模型不够强大，无法抵御它们应该防范的攻击。
Will libertarians eventually turn on Bitcoin as some commentators have predicted?
自由主义者最终会像一些评论家预测的那样转向比特币吗？
There’s certainly been a civil war within Bitcoin, the Bitcoin Cash versus Bitcoin Forks.
比特币内部确实存在一场内战，即比特币现金与比特币分叉。
I don’t think either of them would call themselves less libertarian than the other.
我不认为他们中的任何一个人会称自己比另一个人更自由。
It’s just an intra-denominational fight.
这只是一场宗派内部的斗争。
How will we limit the energy-intensive costs of bitcoin mining?
我们将如何限制比特币挖矿的能源密集型成本？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
There are coins that are being developed that have more energy-efficient proof of works or proof of work alternatives, like Bram Cohen’s Chia.
正在开发的代币具有更节能的工作量证明或工作量证明替代方案，例如 Bram Cohen 的 Chia。
Bram Cohen invented BitTorrent.
布拉姆·科恩发明了 BitTorrent。
He’s a legit guy, and we’ll see what he can do.
他是一个合法的人，我们会看看他能做什么。
Proof-of-stake and delegated-proof-of-stake are a variance that are basically like shareholder votes.
股权证明和委托股权证明是一种差异，基本上类似于股东投票。
But you’re reintroducing third-party involvement in some way.
但你正在以某种方式重新引入第三方的参与。
If you’re asking how decentralized is the system, someone has to verify who has stake or share or whatever.
如果你问系统的去中心化程度如何，就必须有人验证谁拥有股份或份额或其他什么。
Right.
正确的。
I would say I don’t have a good answer to that other than, obviously, no exponential can go to the moon.
我想说我对此没有一个好的答案，除了显然没有指数可以到达月球。
It’s going to top out and logistic out at some point.
它会在某个时候达到顶峰并退出。
With that said, I will offer one observation, which is that people will compare Bitcoin’s power consumption to, let’s say, PayPal’s and say, “Oh, PayPal just has a few servers and Bitcoin is using this gigantic set of server farms.
话虽如此，我将提供一个观察结果，即人们会将比特币的功耗与 PayPal 的功耗进行比较，并说：“哦，PayPal 只有几台服务器，而比特币正在使用这一庞大的服务器场。
Look how wasteful it is to send a transaction.”
看看发送交易是多么浪费。”
But I don’t think that’s an apposite comparison because what Bitcoin is, and then more generally Ethereum and all the blockchain stuff is, is basically a system of property rights and contract law.
但我认为这不是一个恰当的比较，因为比特币，以及更普遍的以太坊和所有区块链东西，基本上都是产权和合同法体系。
It’s more comparable to, let’s say, Delaware or even the US government, at least certain functions, than it is to a central server sending payments back and forth.
比方说，它更像是特拉华州甚至美国政府，至少在某些功能上，而不是来回发送付款的中央服务器。
The blockchain records who has the property.
区块链记录了谁拥有财产。
I think that’s something where, if you’d make that comparison, even all of Bitcoin’s energy consumption is cheaper than the Brink’s trucks and the US military and the police system and so on required to protect property rights in the American context.
我认为，如果你进行比较，即使所有比特币的能源消耗都比美国背景下保护产权所需的边缘卡车、美国军队和警察系统等便宜。
The blockchain records who has the property.
区块链记录了谁拥有财产。
I think that’s something where, if you’d make that comparison, even all of Bitcoin’s energy consumption is cheaper than the Brink’s trucks and the US military and the police system and so on required to protect property rights in the American context.
我认为，如果你进行比较，即使所有比特币的能源消耗都比美国背景下保护产权所需的边缘卡车、美国军队和警察系统等便宜。
Right now, I pay financial fees to my mutual funds, to Merrill Lynch, all over.
现在，我向我的共同基金、美林公司等等支付财务费用。
Anytime I save money, I’m paying a fee to someone.
每当我存钱时，我都会向某人支付费用。
Which of those fees will go away?
其中哪些费用将会消失？
Good question.
好问题。
Maybe all of them.
也许他们全部。
If you think about a major business model for the US Postal Service, prior to the introduction of email, with stamps — now most of the mail that you send doesn’t have any stamps associated with it.
如果您考虑一下美国邮政服务的主要商业模式，在引入电子邮件之前，带有邮票 - 现在您发送的大多数邮件都没有任何与之相关的邮票。
Instead, you had a completely different business model, which is you show ads in email.
相反，您有一个完全不同的商业模式，即在电子邮件中展示广告。
But I can do those accounts electronically already for some time, but still I’m paying fees.
但我已经可以通过电子方式处理这些账户有一段时间了，但我仍然要支付费用。
They’ve gone down a bit, but the financial sector seems to take up about two percent of national wealth, and it has for many decades, roughly.
虽然有所下降，但金融部门似乎占据了国民财富的 2% 左右，而且几十年来一直如此。
Why should we think that will go away?
为什么我们认为这种情况会消失？
We’re paying for some kind of service; maybe it’s not clear what it is.
我们为某种服务付费；也许还不清楚它是什么。
What in tech is going to do that more cheaply?
科技领域有什么可以更便宜地做到这一点？
And what will be done more cheaply for us?
哪些事情对我们来说会更便宜？
Because you can set up a new payment rail and contract execution system in your dorm room.
因为你可以在宿舍里建立一个新的支付系统和合同执行系统。
That’s new because it provides fundamental competition at the lowest level.
这是新的，因为它提供了最低水平的基本竞争。
Now, these new payment rails are volatile.
现在，这些新的支付方式不稳定。
They’ve got all kinds of issues associated with them.
他们有各种各样的问题。
But you can actually, root and branch, exit the system in a way that you couldn’t have done before, and I think that’s going to give more fundamental competition to fees.
但实际上，你可以彻底退出系统，以一种你以前无法做到的方式，我认为这将为费用带来更根本的竞争。
The closest analogy is, with the internet, you have a new mechanism for transmitting information which lets you route around the Postal Service and NBC and the televisions and the movies and the record companies and whatnot.
最接近的类比是，通过互联网，你有了一种新的信息传输机制，可以让你绕过邮政服务、NBC、电视、电影、唱片公司等等。
In the same way, you’ve got this new rail or new set of rails that lets you route around everybody.
同样，你也有了这条新的轨道或一套新的轨道，可以让你绕过每个人。
I think that’s going to structurally reduce fees over the years to come.
我认为这将在未来几年结构性地降低费用。
I can right now buy crypto assets through third-party intermediaries, and they, too, will charge me fees.
我现在可以通过第三方中介机构购买加密资产，他们也会向我收取费用。
It just feels, as a customer, a lot like the fees I pay to my other intermediaries.
作为客户，感觉很像我向其他中介机构支付的费用。
It’s true I have the option of doing it myself, but for most people, that’s very, very costly to figure out how to secure a wallet and how crypto assets work in the first place.
确实，我可以选择自己做，但对于大多数人来说，首先要弄清楚如何保护钱包以及加密资产如何工作，成本非常非常高。
They would rather pay the fee, basically, of two percent of their wealth.
基本上，他们宁愿支付其财富的百分之二的费用。
So why aren’t we just reintroducing intermediaries at some other stage of the game, and we’ll end up paying fees just like we used to?
那么，为什么我们不在游戏的其他阶段重新引入中介机构，而我们最终会像以前一样支付费用呢？
I think there will be a business model of some kind.
我认为将会有某种商业模式。
What you call fees may shift to another part of the system.
您所说的费用可能会转移到系统的另一部分。
As an example, Germany recently repatriated several tons of gold from the United States — their central bank did.
例如，德国最近从美国运回了数吨黄金——他们的央行就是这样做的。
That was something that took three or four years and cost so many millions of dollars.
这花了三四年时间，耗资数百万美元。
In theory, the same amount of money could have been moved in Bitcoin for a fraction of that cost.
从理论上讲，同样数量的资金可以以比特币的一小部分成本转移。
There’s already certain contexts where we’ve reduced fees by several orders of magnitude for very large movements of money.
在某些情况下，我们已经将大量资金流动的费用降低了几个数量级。
Then what’s going to happen is, these new business models that arise are not going to have exactly the same fee structure as the old ones.
然后将会发生的是，这些出现的新商业模式将不会具有与旧商业模式完全相同的费用结构。
There will be a business model.
将会有一个商业模式。
They’ll still continue to make money, but they’re going to tax what is scarce, and that may not be necessarily the wire transfer itself.
他们仍然会继续赚钱，但他们会对稀缺的东西征税，而这可能不一定是电汇本身。
But they may charge some money management fees or other kinds of things like that.
但他们可能会收取一些资金管理费或其他类似费用。
The most important thing, from my standpoint, is the level of choice you’re going to have is going to be dramatically increased because the blockchain makes it much easier to startup a competitor and raise up your own shingle as a new financial outlet.
从我的角度来看，最重要的是，你的选择水平将大大增加，因为区块链使你更容易创办竞争对手并建立自己的公司作为新的金融渠道。
A question about tokens.
关于代币的问题。
Here’s a statement.
这是一个声明。
Tell me if you think it’s true, false, or uncertain.
告诉我你认为这是真的、假的还是不确定的。
The role of the ICO is to aggregate dispersed information about a company.
ICO 的作用是聚合有关公司的分散信息。
ICO, initial coin offering.
ICO，首次代币发行。
I wouldn’t necessarily agree with that.
我不一定同意这一点。
I think we’re in very, very early days on tokens and so on.
我认为我们在代币等方面还处于非常非常早期的阶段。
One useful thing that I heard from someone on a panel was, she believed that tokens were going to become an integral part of every company’s capital structure over the next 10 years.
我从小组成员那里听到的一件有用的事情是，她相信代币将在未来 10 年成为每个公司资本结构不可或缺的一部分。
Her argument went as follows.
她的论点如下。
She said, “OK, what is debt?
她说：“好吧，什么是债务？
When a company issues debt, it’s a claim on the future cash flows of the company.
当公司发行债务时，这是对公司未来现金流的债权。
What is equity?
什么是股权？
When a company issues equity, it’s a claim on future liquidations of the company.
当公司发行股权时，这是对公司未来清算的索取权。
What are tokens, or what are network tokens?
什么是代币，或者什么是网络代币？
They’re a claim on the company’s future digital asset value or digital network.”
它们是对公司未来数字资产价值或数字网络的主张。”
In the same way, the interplay of equity and debt is something where a competent CFO knows how to trade off between them.
同样，有能力的首席财务官知道如何在股权和债务之间进行权衡。
Not every company is suitable for debt financing.
并非所有公司都适合债务融资。
If you don’t have cash flows, you’re not suitable for it.
如果你没有现金流，那你就不适合。
Not every company is suitable for equity financing.
并不是所有的公司都适合股权融资。
If you’re not going to do 10X, if you’re a mom-and-pop grocery store, equity financing may not be for you.
如果你不打算做 10 倍，如果你是一家夫妻杂货店，股权融资可能不适合你。
Finally, with tokens or network tokens, unless you have a network effect, token financing may not be for you.
最后，对于代币或网络代币，除非您具有网络效应，否则代币融资可能不适合您。
On the third hand, some of these companies are suitable for those means of financing.
第三，其中一些公司适合这些融资方式。
I think, in addition to network tokens, you’re going to see tokens that are basically debt tokens, equity tokens, and other kinds of financializations.
我认为，除了网络代币之外，您还会看到基本上是债务代币、股权代币和其他类型的金融化代币。
All the regulations need to get worked out.
所有的规定都需要制定出来。
We’re at very, very early days on the whole token thing.
我们对于整个代币的事情还处于非常非常早期的阶段。
And an ICO bundles a lot of different concepts together that are going to get unbundled and separated out in the years to come.
ICO 将许多不同的概念捆绑在一起，这些概念将在未来几年内被分拆和分离。
Let’s say I’m an old style company.
假设我是一家老式公司。
I’m Nordstrom or I’m Macy’s.
我是诺德斯特龙 (Nordstrom) 或梅西百货 (Macy’s)。
Those companies — for a long time, they’ve issued gift certificates, which in a way raises money, brings in capital, maybe a small amount.
这些公司长期以来一直发行礼券，这在某种程度上筹集了资金，带来了资本，也许是少量。
We’re familiar with how this works.
我们很熟悉这是如何运作的。
If we wanted to, we could trade those gift certificates amongst ourselves.
如果我们愿意，我们可以在我们之间交换这些礼券。
We could even trade them on blockchains, but that probably wouldn’t be seen as a major innovation.
我们甚至可以在区块链上进行交易，但这可能不会被视为一项重大创新。
Maybe the price of the gift certificate would tell you something about how good is the merchandise at Nordstrom or Macy’s.
也许礼券的价格可以告诉您 Nordstrom 或 Macy's 的商品有多好。
ICOs are more than that, somehow.
某种程度上，ICO 的意义远不止于此。
What’s the element they bring to the problem that you don’t get just by trading, say, gift certificates of Nordstrom or Macy’s?
它们带来了哪些元素来解决仅通过交易（例如 Nordstrom 或 Macy's 的礼券）无法解决的问题？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
Or subway tokens, right?
或者地铁代币，对吗？
Right.
正确的。
I would distinguish, just terminologically, between the ICO itself and the token because you can have a token without an ICO and potentially vice versa.
我会从术语上区分 ICO 本身和代币，因为你可以在没有 ICO 的情况下拥有代币，反之亦然。
But let’s say tokens.
但让我们说一下代币。
Why is a token different from just a gift certificate, for example?
例如，为什么代币与礼券不同？
The first thing is, you have, in theory at least, total custody that say you own the private keys.
首先，至少在理论上，您拥有完全的保管权，也就是说您拥有私钥。
You can move it to somebody else without any third party’s intervention.
您可以将其转移给其他人，而无需任何第三方的干预。
Whereas probably a Macy’s or anybody who’s issuing these gift certificates has some restrictions in terms of transfer or what have you.
然而，梅西百货或任何发行这些礼券的人可能在转让或其他方面有一些限制。
But you give them as gifts.
但你把它们作为礼物送给你。
That’s why they’re gift certificates.
这就是为什么它们是礼券。
They have numbers.
他们有数字。
That’s right.
这是正确的。
The other aspect is, once you can do something programmatically, a lot of things become unlocked with it.
另一方面是，一旦你可以以编程方式做某事，很多事情就会随之解锁。
You can have these tokens.
你可以拥有这些代币。
You can have millions of them.
你可以拥有数百万个。
You can have programs consume them.
您可以让程序使用它们。
You can have them bought and traded programmatically.
您可以以编程方式购买和交易它们。
You can use them as inputs for API calls.
您可以将它们用作 API 调用的输入。
There’s things that you can do with them on a computer that you can’t do with a physical gift certificate.
有些事情您可以在计算机上使用它们来完成，而使用实体礼券则无法完成。
The agility of the value dramatically increases, and I think that’s a very important aspect.
价值的敏捷性急剧增加，我认为这是一个非常重要的方面。
That’s not just like a physical gift certificate.
这不仅仅是实体礼券。
Say we peer 20 years into the future.
假设我们展望 20 年后。
We consider a person who doesn’t have a college degree and is at the median income level for the United States.
我们考虑的是没有大学学位且处于美国中等收入水平的人。
Twenty years from now, they’ll be saying, “Oh, because of tokens, I can do X.” Maybe they don’t understand how it all fits together, but they do understand they can do X, and this is meaningful to them.
二十年后，他们会说，“哦，因为代币，我可以做 X。”也许他们不明白这一切是如何结合在一起的，但他们确实明白他们可以做某件事，这对他们来说很有意义。
What’s the most likely candidate for X?
X 最有可能的候选者是什么？
One thing I’ve thought about, and I think this is a 20-year thing, maybe something like a personal token, which is to say, if you have some future .
我想过一件事，我觉得这是一个20年的事情，也许是一个个人代币之类的东西，也就是说，如果你有一些未来的话。
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。
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。
Let’s say you’ve done well in something that shows you have some promise.
假设你在某件事上做得很好，这表明你有前途。
Rather than, let’s say, taking out a student loan, which is one way of mortgaging your future, you might issue a personal token.
比如说，您可以发行个人代币，而不是申请学生贷款（这是抵押您未来的一种方式）。
That would be something where you say, “Hey, look, I’m going to sell about 20 percent of my future earnings for token-based financing.
你可能会说：“嘿，看，我将出售未来收入的 20% 左右用于代币融资。
Here’s my résumé and here’s all my stats.
这是我的简历，这是我的所有统计数据。
Can you finance me and help me achieve my dreams?”
你能资助我并帮助我实现我的梦想吗？”
That’s something where anybody in the world can chip in.
这是世界上任何人都可以参与的事情。
A guy from India, a guy from Japan, a guy from Kenya, Brazil can help finance that.
来自印度、日本、肯尼亚、巴西的人可以帮助筹集资金。
Maybe they’ll lose money, maybe they’ll make money, but it opens up financing in a way that’s never been possible before at a very small level, a very individual level.
也许他们会赔钱，也许他们会赚钱，但它以一种以前从未可能的方式在非常小的层面、非常个人的层面上开辟了融资之路。
I think that’s a 20-year vision.
我认为这是一个20年的愿景。
I don’t think that’s a 5-year vision.
我不认为这是一个 5 年的愿景。
Maybe a 10-year vision.
也许是10年的愿景。
But in the same way that we put up a website for any old thing, you put out a tweet for any old thing.
但就像我们为任何旧事物建立一个网站一样，你也为任何旧事物发布一条推文。
A communication, a broadcast to millions of people is now such a low-threshold activity.
向数百万人进行交流、广播现在是一种低门槛的活动。
If financing or the financialization of something also becomes such a low-threshold activity, it’s going to become a lot more common.
如果某种事物的融资或金融化也成为一种低门槛活动，那么它将变得更加普遍。
On things under- and overrated
关于被低估和高估的事情
In all of these conversations, or most of them, there’s a segment in the middle called “overrated versus underrated.” Feel free to pass on any one of these.
在所有这些对话或大多数对话中，中间有一个部分称为“高估与低估”。请随意传递其中任何一项。
I’ll toss out a few things or names and you respond.
我会抛出一些东西或名字，然后你回应。
Ramanujan, the Indian mathematician, overrated or underrated?
印度数学家拉马努金被高估还是低估？
I think he’s underrated because he’s not yet world famous.
我认为他被低估了，因为他还没有世界闻名。
He’s famous in India.
他在印度很有名。
Why is he important to you?
为什么他对你很重要？
He’s from my father’s hometown.
他来自我父亲的家乡。
He’s India’s Einstein.
他是印度的爱因斯坦。
I think, also, he’s very spiritually important in the sense that he represents the rags-to-riches story.
我还认为，他在精神上非常重要，因为他代表了白手起家的故事。
Even though he didn’t get rich, he came from the middle of nowhere.
尽管他并不富有，但他来自一个偏僻的地方。
He was very poor, destitute, but he was able to level himself up and really make a mark in the world.
他非常贫穷，一无所有，但他能够提升自己，并真正在世界上留下自己的印记。
If you want to say what drives me is the power of the internet to do something like that.
如果你想说是什么驱使我去做这样的事情，那就是互联网的力量。
To find all these people who are in the middle of nowhere, who have been left behind by the 20th century, and give them the information, and then, with the blockchain and the financial tools, to lift themselves up and lift their communities up.
找到所有那些在偏僻的地方、被 20 世纪抛在后面的人，并向他们提供信息，然后利用区块链和金融工具，提升自己并提升社区。
Indian food in Silicon Valley, overrated or underrated?
硅谷的印度美食，被高估还是被低估？
Exactly right rated, I guess.
我想，评级完全正确。
It’s fine.
没关系。
I have no opinion on it.
我对此没有意见。
Drones?
无人机？
Underrated.
被低估了。
Why?
为什么？
What will they do that we haven’t thought of?
他们会做什么我们没有想到的事情？
Construction.
建造。
There’s different kinds of drones.
有不同类型的无人机。
They’re not just flying drones.
他们不仅仅是飞行无人机。
There’s swimming drones and there’s walking drones and so on.
有游泳无人机和步行无人机等等。
Or like the example I mentioned where you can teleport into a robot and then control that, Skype into a robot and control that on other side of the world.
或者像我提到的例子一样，你可以传送到一个机器人中，然后控制它，通过 Skype 传送到一个机器人中，然后在世界的另一端控制它。
That’s going to be something where maybe you’re going to have it in drone mode so it walks to the destination.
也许你会让它处于无人机模式，这样它就会步行到目的地。
You’ll be asleep and then you wake up and it’s at the destination.
你会睡着，然后醒来，就到了目的地。
Drones are going to be a very big deal.
无人机将成为一件大事。
There’s this interesting movie called Surrogates, which actually talks about what a really big drone/telepresence future would look like.
有一部有趣的电影叫《代理人》，它实际上讨论了一个真正大的无人机/远程呈现的未来会是什么样子。
People never leave their homes because, instead, they just Skype into a really good-looking drone/telepresent version of themselves, and they walk around in that.
人们永远不会离开自己的家，因为相反，他们只是通过 Skype 与一个非常漂亮的无人机/远程呈现版本的自己进行通话，然后他们就可以在其中四处走动。
If they’re hit by a car, it doesn’t matter because they can just rejuvenate and create a new one.
如果他们被车撞了，也没关系，因为他们可以恢复活力并创造一个新的。
I think drones are very, very underrated in terms of what they’re going to do.
我认为无人机的功能被非常非常低估了。
The novelist and poet Vikram Seth?
小说家兼诗人维克拉姆·塞斯？
I’m a fan of his.
我是他的粉丝。
I remember reading his book .
我记得读过他的书。
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。
.
。
I think it was A Suitable Boy.
我认为这是一个合适的男孩。
That’s my favorite.
这是我最喜欢的。
Actually, no, it was Golden Gate.
事实上，不，那是金门大桥。
That’s what it was.
就是这样。
That was a book that was in the form of a poem.
那是一本以诗的形式出现的书。
And at the end, he had some really moving, melancholy lines about “Oh, we’re all going to die someday.” I was like, “Ugh, this is horrible.
最后，他有一些非常感人、忧郁的台词，内容是“哦，有一天我们都会死。”我当时想，“呃，这太可怕了。
Can we not work on that?” That’s what got me really deeply looking at telomeres and life extension and all that type of stuff.
我们可以不做这方面的工作吗？”这就是让我真正深入研究端粒和寿命延长以及所有此类东西的原因。
That was 18 years ago.
那是18年前的事了。
I still think that’s going to happen.
我仍然认为这将会发生。
There’s folks here in the Valley who are working on that.
硅谷有人正在研究这个问题。
There’s a lot of prerequisites, but there’s been a lot of progress for the last 10, 15 years.
有很多先决条件，但过去 10 年、15 年已经取得了很多进展。
Not counting anyone you’re working with now, who would be three quite underrated or undiscovered independent thinkers in tech today?
不包括你现在共事的任何人，谁会是当今科技领域三个被低估或未被发现的独立思想家？
I would say, at least from the American context, I’d say the Chinese internet entrepreneurs.
我想说，至少从美国的背景来看，我会说中国的互联网企业家。
I know that’s a broad category but .
我知道这是一个广泛的类别，但是。
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。
.
。
Sure, that’s fine.
当然，那很好。
Jack Ma, Pony Ma.
马云、马化腾。
The Chinese internet is a lot more innovative than, let’s say, the broad mass of the US has realized.
中国的互联网比美国广大民众意识到的更具创新性。
One way of looking at this in the show Silicon Valley the opening title has only one Chinese internet company there, like Alibaba.
从节目《硅谷》的一种角度来看，片头只有一家中国互联网公司，比如阿里巴巴。
It doesn’t really have the rest of them.
它实际上没有其余的。
They’re not as actively featured.
他们没有那么活跃。
I’m not critiquing the show.
我不是在批评这个节目。
I’m just saying that it hasn’t impinged on the American consciousness, the degree of innovation that’s happening over there, whereas in China, they’re very hyper-aware of what’s happening in the US.
我只是说，这并没有影响美国人的意识和那里正在发生的创新程度，而在中国，他们非常了解美国正在发生的事情。
So it’s kind of asymmetric.
所以这是一种不对称。
So I do think the Chinese internet is very underrated.
所以我确实认为中国互联网被严重低估了。
Second group of, let’s say, thinkers, doers.
第二组，比如说，思想家、实干家。
I’d say that the global English-speaking population — again, this is not one individual but what I think of as underrated.
我想说的是，全球英语人口 —— 再说一次，这不是一个人，而是我认为被低估的人。
There’s many more English speakers outside the United States than there are within if you include India, if you include Nigeria, if you include all these countries that have relatively large English-speaking minorities.
如果算上印度、尼日利亚，算上所有这些拥有相对较多说英语的少数民族的国家，美国境外说英语的人比美国境内说英语的人要多得多。
Now that those folks all have smartphones, it’s only a matter of time before they’re really heavily involved in US discussions because what the internet is doing is bringing people together, based on interest, from different locations, cryptocurrency being a great example of that, where you’ve got people from around the world who are participating in this thing.
现在这些人都拥有智能手机，他们真正大量参与美国的讨论只是时间问题，因为互联网所做的就是根据兴趣将来自不同地点的人们聚集在一起，加密货币就是一个很好的例子，来自世界各地的人们都参与其中。
There’s going to be more things that are like that.
类似的事情还会有更多。
Now, you’re going to get tens, hundreds of millions of English-speaking people, maybe, participating in the US internet.
现在，也许会有数千万、数亿讲英语的人参与美国互联网。
That’s going to be very different and very new for people.
这对人们来说将是非常不同和新鲜的。
With respect to China, if you think about the best Chinese tech companies in terms of management, do you think they have any advantages over the Bay Area?
就中国而言，如果你想想管理方面最好的中国科技公司，你认为他们比湾区有什么优势吗？
I don’t have as much firsthand knowledge, so I’m going to give .
我没有太多第一手知识，所以我将给予。
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。
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。
Do they have quicker product cycles, as some people have alleged?
他们的产品周期是否像某些人所说的那样更快？
What a lot of folks say — and I’m not sure the extent to which that’s true because I haven’t experienced it myself — what people will say is that the average Chinese tech worker works harder than the American tech worker.
很多人都说“——我不确定这在多大程度上是正确的，因为我自己没有经历过”——人们会说，中国科技工作者的平均工作强度比美国科技工作者更努力。
There’s the 12-hours a day, 6 days a week kind of thing.
每天工作 12 小时，每周工作 6 天之类的。
The big difference is, the Chinese that I’ve met, at least, really feel like they are trying to show that China can make it on the world stage.
最大的区别是，至少我见过的中国人真的觉得他们正在努力表明中国可以在世界舞台上取得成功。
They have a hunger to prove something that isn’t as much there .
他们渴望证明一些并不存在的东西。
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。
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For the Americans it’s more of an individual thing as opposed to a civilizational thing.
对于美国人来说，这更多的是个人的事情，而不是文明的事情。
You saw this to some extent on display at the Beijing Olympics.
你在北京奥运会上一定程度上看到了这一点。
Ten years ago, China wanted to show, “Boom, we’re not a backwards country, and we’ve really arrived.” That’s an aspect which, to a greater or lesser extent, is present in a lot of the Chinese entrepreneurs I’ve worked with, and I think that’s much less present among the Americans.
十年前，中国想要表明：“繁荣，我们不是一个落后的国家，我们真的已经实现了。”与我共事过的许多中国企业家或多或少都存在这一点，而我认为这在美国人中则少得多。
On the ideal India trip
理想的印度之旅
Let’s say you were asked to design for a highly intelligent and curious friend, who had never been to India before, the ideal India trip.
假设您被要求为一位非常聪明且充满好奇心的朋友设计一次理想的印度之旅，他以前从未去过印度。
How would you think through what that might look like?
您会如何考虑这可能会是什么样子？
It depends on whether they want the authentic India or the tourist India.
这取决于他们想要真正的印度还是旅游印度。
The authentic India has got a lot going for it.
真实的印度有很多优点。
The tourist India will be much closer to the western experience.
印度旅游将更加接近西方的体验。
Given those parameters, I’d say you either stick to the most manicured city aspects and probably the south, which is a little bit more attuned to western sensibilities in terms of just HDI and whatnot.
考虑到这些参数，我想说你要么坚持最修剪整齐的城市方面，也可能坚持南部，就人类发展指数等而言，南部更符合西方的情感。
Or if they’re up for it, you could give them the authentic experience and just take a train to any place in India.
或者，如果他们愿意，您可以为他们提供真实的体验，然后乘坐火车前往印度的任何地方。
It depends on their preferences.
这取决于他们的喜好。
What’s the one place they might not think of going where you would say, “Oh, you must go here.
他们可能不会想到的一个地方是哪里，你会说：“哦，你必须去这里。
This is more interesting than the guidebooks will tell you”?
这比旅游指南告诉你的更有趣”？
That’s a good question.
这是一个好问题。
I’m not much of a tourist.
我不太像个游客。
I’m not sure I could say for something like that.
我不确定我是否可以这样说。
Maybe Goa.
也许是果阿。
I think Goa is a unique place within India that is a cultural mixture because it’s got the Portuguese influence, Indian influence, et cetera.
我认为果阿是印度一个独特的地方，它是一种文化的混合体，因为它受到葡萄牙、印度的影响等等。
I couldn’t say on that.
对此我不能说。
What do we Americans in the tech world least understand about Nigeria?
我们科技界的美国人对尼日利亚最不了解的是什么？
It’s English-speaking.
是英语的。
It has a very large number of people.
它的人数非常多。
There’s now starting to be some software stuff coming out of there, like Andela.
现在开始出现一些软件产品，比如 Andela。
I think there’s going to be a lot of those folks who work in what I call the new digital blue-collar jobs, which are Mechanical Turk–type jobs.
我认为将会有很多人从事我所说的新数字蓝领工作，这些工作是机械土耳其人类型的工作。
We’re doing some of that with Earn.com, where you have labeling of images: is this a cat, this a dog, or determining if there are two clusters or one cluster in an image.
我们正在 Earn.com 上做一些这样的事情，你可以在其中对图像进行标记：这是一只猫，这是一只狗，或者确定图像中是否有两个簇或一个簇。
That’s what I think of as the new digital blue collar, like worldwide machine learning–type stuff.
这就是我所认为的新数字蓝领，就像全球范围内的机器学习类型的东西。
You’re going to have a lot of those from Nigeria, Brazil, India, places like that.
其中很多来自尼日利亚、巴西、印度等地。
How do we do a worldwide talent search for the really smart kids?
我们如何在全球范围内寻找真正聪明的孩子？
Is that a problem that can be solved by tech, or is it more about local mentoring and coaching?
这是一个可以通过技术解决的问题，还是更多地需要本地指导和辅导？
I definitely think that is a problem that can be solved in nontrivial part by tech, though you’d want to use some local mentors to help localize it.
我绝对认为这是一个可以通过技术在重要部分解决的问题，尽管您希望使用一些本地导师来帮助本地化它。
The way I would do it is — this is actually something I’ve thought a lot about — essentially use a MOOC and take the highest scorers.
我的做法是 — 这实际上是我想了很多的事情 — 本质上使用MOOC并选择得分最高的人。
To some extent, that’s already being done.
在某种程度上，这已经完成了。
For example, even five years ago or six years ago, there’s an article in the NYT called “The Boy Genius of Ulan Bator” about a kid in Mongolia who was in his early teens and outscored a lot of kids at MIT on this circuits class.
例如，即使是五年前或六年前，《纽约时报》上也有一篇文章，名为《乌兰巴托的天才男孩》，讲述了蒙古的一个十几岁的孩子在电路课上比麻省理工学院的许多孩子得分高的故事。
So that’s already being done.
所以这已经完成了。
What hasn’t happened yet, though, is to take those kids who are scoring well and then plug them into the global economy so they can contribute and get their just dividends.
然而，尚未发生的事情是让那些成绩好的孩子融入全球经济，这样他们就可以做出贡献并获得应得的红利。
That’s the kind of thing that I’m excited about that maybe the blockchain will play a partial role in.
这就是我感到兴奋的事情，也许区块链将在其中发挥部分作用。
On the Balaji Srinivasan production function
关于 Balaji Srinivasan 生产函数
For our final section, I have some questions about what I call the Balaji Srinivasan production function — that is, how you got to be you.
对于我们的最后一部分，我有一些关于我所说的巴拉吉·斯里尼瓦桑生产函数 的问题—— 也就是说，你如何成为你自己。
If I understand correctly, you grew up on Long Island, right?
如果我没理解错的话，你是在长岛长大的，对吧？
Yeah.
是的。
Both of your parents were physicians.
你的父母都是医生。
How would you say your high school experiences formed your worldview in a significant way?
您认为您的高中经历如何对您的世界观产生了重要影响？
It’s not something that I spend too many cycles on, but it is something where it’s like, “Oh, wow.” I’m envious of kids today who have Stack Overflow and GitHub and a really functional Google and whatnot.
这不是我花了太多周期的事情，但它就像是“哦，哇”。我很羡慕现在的孩子，他们拥有 Stack Overflow、GitHub 以及功能强大的 Google 等等。
I come from the generation that was just before the internet really started to get useful.
我来自互联网真正开始发挥作用之前的一代。
I graduated high school in 1997.
1997年我高中毕业。
You had Alta Vista Digital a little bit, and HotBot and whatnot.
你有一点 Alta Vista Digital，还有 HotBot 等等。
But the search engines weren’t that good.
但搜索引擎并不是那么好。
There wasn’t Wikipedia.
没有维基百科。
There wasn’t any of that stuff.
没有那些东西。
High school was kind of stultifying in the sense that you just couldn’t learn anywhere near as fast.
高中有点无聊，因为你根本无法学得那么快。
I feel like my education really only commenced in 2001 when Google started to get good enough that I could really start leveling up on the internet and just self-educating and drinking it in.
我觉得我的教育实际上是在 2001 年才开始的，当时 Google 开始变得足够好，我可以真正开始在互联网上升级，并进行自我教育和吸收。
Insofar as my upbringing shaped me, I would say it was just something that taught me, “Wow, I never want to send my kids to an American public school.
就我的成长经历而言，我想说这只是教会了我，“哇，我从来不想把我的孩子送到美国公立学校。
I’ll probably crowdfund a tutor or do something like that so that they can actually learn something rather than being in jail for twelve years.”
我可能会众筹一位导师或做类似的事情，这样他们就可以真正学到一些东西，而不是在监狱里呆十二年。”
I have this one-liner which says, “Life in the United States begins with a 12-year mandatory minimum, the Schoolag Archipelago.”
我有一句俏皮话，上面写着：“在美国的生活始于 12 年的强制最低限度教育，即斯库拉格群岛。”
You have several advanced degrees from Stanford.
您拥有斯坦福大学的多个高级学位。
One is in chemical engineering, which is slightly unusual.
其中之一是化学工程，这有点不寻常。
One of my readers wrote in to me this question: “Why get a degree in chemical engineering?”
我的一位读者写信给我这个问题：“为什么要获得化学工程学位？”
Oh, there’s a method to the madness there.
哦，有一种方法可以让你变得疯狂。
I had a lot of credits because, since high school was really boring, I took a lot of AP classes, and I independent-studied a lot of AP classes.
我有很多学分，因为高中真的很无聊，我修了很多AP课程，而且我自学了很多AP课程。
I had a ton of credits coming into Stanford, and nothing to spend them on.
我在斯坦福大学获得了大量的学分，但没有什么可以花的。
I wanted to get into genomics, and the Human Genome Project was going.
我想进入基因组学领域，而人类基因组计划正在进行中。
What I wanted was the major that would expose me the maximum to genomics while also having the maximum amount of math because I didn’t want to just memorize a lot of stuff.
我想要的是能让我最大程度地接触基因组学的专业，同时也能拥有最大量的数学知识，因为我不想只记住很多东西。
So chemical engineering was that, where it had a lot of biology, but it presented it probably in the most structured form.
化学工程就是这样，它有很多生物学知识，但它可能以最结构化的形式呈现出来。
The other thing was that, at least at Stanford at the time, chemical engineering and electrical engineering had the reputation as the hardest engineering majors, and so I wanted to do it just because it was hard.
另一件事是，至少在当时的斯坦福大学，化学工程和电气工程被誉为最难的工程专业，所以我想这样做只是因为它很难。
What’s the most important thing you learned from your brother Ramji?
你从你哥哥拉姆吉身上学到的最重要的事情是什么？
My brother Ramji is very good at execution.
我的兄弟拉姆吉非常擅长执行。
He is incredibly disciplined, very, very smart, and he just approaches problems in a different way than I do.
他非常自律，非常非常聪明，而且他处理问题的方式与我不同。
What Ramji contributed is a skill or a mode of thinking that I call “list, rank, iterate.” It’s kind of a meta-algorithm, which is almost trivial to describe but a very useful way to attack unstructured problems.
Ramji 贡献的是一种技能或思维模式，我称之为“列表、排名、迭代”。这是一种元算法，描述起来几乎微不足道，但却是解决非结构化问题的一种非常有用的方法。
Basically, what it means is, let’s say you have a problem.
基本上，这意味着，假设你遇到了问题。
“How do we increase sales?” or “How do we raise funds?” or “How do we do X?” or “How do we do Y?” Often what you can do is, you can start by making a list — for example, a list of prospective doctors to sell to or a list of prospective VCs to go and fundraise from.
“我们如何提高销量？”或“我们如何筹集资金？”或“我们如何做X？”或“我们如何做Y？”通常你可以做的是，你可以首先列出一份清单——例如，一份要向其出售产品的潜在医生的名单，或者一份要从中筹集资金的潜在风险投资家的名单。
Then impose a ranking function on them, which is, “Hey, which zip code is this doctor in?
然后对他们施加一个排名功能，即“嘿，这位医生在哪个邮政编码？
Are they likely to prescribe this test?” et cetera, or “Has this VC invested in companies like ours before?”
他们可能会开这个测试吗？”等等，或者“这家风险投资公司以前投资过像我们这样的公司吗？”
Then you just iterate brutally through this.
然后你就粗暴地重复这个过程。
The key thing is you put a limit.
关键是你要设定一个限制。
You say, “All right, I’m going to do 150 of these.
你说：“好吧，我要做 150 个。
If I don’t get any hits on them, then I’m going to try a new strategy, a new list.” This concept of list, rank, iterate is a great way of structuring unstructured problems.
如果我没有得到任何点击，那么我将尝试新的策略、新的列表。”列表、排名、迭代的概念是构建非结构化问题的好方法。
That’s something that I owe Ramji.
这是我欠拉姆吉的。
Your upbringing from Long Island, how has that shaped who you are?
您在长岛的成长经历如何塑造了您的性格？
How has that shaped who I am?
这如何塑造了我？
Well, I actually don’t think about it that much.
嗯，其实我并没有想那么多。
I don’t know if you’ve seen those movies where someone’s frozen in a block of ice, and then they’re thawed out, and then they experience the world.
我不知道你是否看过那些电影，有人被冻在一块冰里，然后他们被解冻，然后他们体验这个世界。
That’s kind of what my life has been like post coming to Stanford.
这就是我来到斯坦福后的生活。
Long Island was the ice or the world?
长岛是冰雪还是世界？
The ice, yeah, exactly.
冰，是的，没错。
It was kind of like everything in life moved in a very slow motion until around 2001 or thereabouts.
直到 2001 年左右，生活中的一切都以非常缓慢的速度移动。
Then things sped up a lot.
然后事情就加快了很多。
I don’t know if you’ve seen those movies where someone’s frozen in a block of ice, and then they’re thawed out, and then they experience the world.
我不知道你是否看过那些电影，有人被冻在一块冰里，然后他们被解冻，然后他们体验这个世界。
That’s kind of what my life has been like post coming to Stanford.
这就是我来到斯坦福后的生活。
It was kind of like everything in life moved in a very slow motion until around 2001 or thereabouts.
直到 2001 年左右，生活中的一切都以非常缓慢的速度移动。
Then things sped up a lot.
然后事情就加快了很多。
What’s the best theoretical framework for thinking about optimal family size — how many children you should have?
思考最佳家庭规模 ——你应该有多少个孩子——的最佳理论框架是什么？
Interesting.
有趣的。
I plan on having as many as possible.
我计划拥有尽可能多的。
The reason for that is, I like children and I come from large families and so on.
原因是，我喜欢孩子，我来自大家庭等等。
It’s a very individual decision.
这是一个非常个人的决定。
I think Bryan Caplan has an interesting book arguing for large family sizes.
我认为布莱恩·卡普兰（Bryan Caplan）有一本关于大家庭规模的有趣的书。
In some ways, the folks who have large families are going to win the argument simply because they’re going to have more kids and those kids will have more kids, et cetera.
在某些方面，拥有大家庭的人会赢得这场争论，仅仅是因为他们将有更多的孩子，而这些孩子将有更多的孩子，等等。
It’s not really even a logical argument.
这甚至不是一个逻辑论证。
It’s an evolutionary argument.
这是一个进化论。
Darwin’s going to have the last word.
达尔文将拥有最终决定权。
And it will keep the world somewhat religious, on average .
平均而言，这将使世界保持一定程度的宗教信仰。
.
。
.
。
Maybe, yes.
也许，是的。
.
。
.
。
.
。
because religious families tend to have more children.
因为宗教家庭往往有更多的孩子。
Right.
正确的。
If you think about the different obstacles you’ve encountered to get to where you are, there are a lot of clichés about what matters — be smart, be conscientious, five-factor personality tests — from Mark, I’m sure you’ve heard.
如果你想想你在达到目标的过程中遇到的不同障碍，就会发现有很多关于什么是重要的陈词滥调——“要聪明，要认真，五因素性格测试”——我相信你已经听过马克的说法。
Sure.
当然。
But outside of that framework, if there’s some source or influence or insight you would bring to bear on the question of how to be successful that you feel is underemphasized in the Bay Area, what would it be?
但在这个框架之外，如果您能利用一些来源、影响力或见解来解决您认为在湾区被低估的如何取得成功的问题，那会是什么？
That’s an interesting question.
这是一个有趣的问题。
Underemphasized in the Bay Area?
湾区的重视程度不够？
Correct, because everything else was this block of ice on Long Island, right?
是的，因为其他一切都是长岛上的这块冰，对吗？
Right.
正确的。
Nothing is emphasized except the cold.
除了寒冷之外，没有什么被强调的。
Sure.
当然。
What is underemphasized?
什么是被低估的？
The degree to which you really can and should set out to set your own path, rather than looking at TechCrunch and Twitter and whatnot.
你真正能够并且应该在多大程度上开始设定自己的道路，而不是看着 TechCrunch 和 Twitter 之类的东西。
There’s a certain model of person who is successful because they go, and they look at the competition, and they align around the competition.
有一种特定的成功人士模式，因为他们不断前行，关注竞争，并围绕竞争进行调整。
They’re just a fast follower and so on.
他们只是一个快速的追随者等等。
But it’s very hard to tweet or TechCrunch your way to innovation.
但通过 Twitter 或 TechCrunch 来实现创新是非常困难的。
I really do think you have to tune out a lot of what the Valley is thinking and then innovate.
我确实认为你必须排除硅谷的很多想法，然后进行创新。
For example, I can’t believe Satoshi got the idea for Bitcoin by reading TechCrunch, that just completely out-of-left-field idea that had no validation from it.
例如，我不敢相信中本聪通过阅读 TechCrunch 获得了比特币的想法，这个想法完全超出了人们的想象，没有得到任何验证。
So I’d say tuning out the Valley is often the best way to make a huge impact, and then have the Valley recognize that you’re a real innovator.
所以我想说，忽视硅谷往往是产生巨大影响的最佳方式，然后让硅谷认识到你是一个真正的创新者。
Some of the biggest innovations like SpaceX — no one was telling Elon to do that.
一些最大的创新，比如 SpaceX ——没有人告诉埃隆这样做。
There was no feed about how space was the next big thing.
没有关于太空如何成为下一件大事的消息。
There was no conferences on space or whatever.
没有关于太空或其他什么的会议。
It was not thought of as a thing that entrepreneurs could conceivably do.
人们不认为这是企业家可以做的事情。
What I almost look for, what I’d say is, take everything that people are talking about and then the rest of human civilization, and look for the stuff that technology has not moved into yet.
我几乎要寻找的是，我想说的是，从人们谈论的一切，然后是人类文明的其余部分，寻找技术尚未进入的领域。
That’s maybe where the opportunity is because it’s underexploited.
这也许就是机会所在，因为它尚未得到充分利用。
If you want to tune out the Valley to some extent, do you ever think of not living here?
如果你想在某种程度上远离硅谷，你有没有想过不住在这里？
And if you couldn’t live here or chose not to, where else would you live?
如果您不能住在这里或选择不住，您还会住哪里？
I’ve been wanting to get out of here for a long time.
我很久以来一直想离开这里。
To where?
去哪里？
Singapore.
新加坡。
Singapore?
新加坡？
Yeah.
是的。
Why Singapore?
为什么是新加坡？
It’s the optimum place for at least my personal preference factor because it’s hot.
至少就我个人的喜好而言，这是最适合的地方，因为它很热。
One thing that’s little known, by the way, is a lot of the South Asians in Silicon Valley have low-level vitamin D deficiency because the place isn’t really as sunny as you might think, and we’re spending all this time in front of our computer.
顺便说一句，鲜为人知的一件事是，硅谷的许多南亚人都存在低水平的维生素 D 缺乏症，因为这个地方并不像您想象的那么阳光明媚，而且我们一直在电脑前度过。
It’s a small reason, but it’s a long-term health thing.
这是一个小原因，但却是一个长期的健康问题。
In addition to that, Singapore is friendly to capitalism.
除此之外，新加坡对资本主义很友好。
It’s got a lot of skilled immigrants there.
那里有很多技术移民。
You can start a tech company really easily.
您可以非常轻松地创办一家科技公司。
It’s safe.
很安全。
If you’re raising kids, it’s good.
如果你正在抚养孩子，那很好。
It’s just a good place.
这只是一个好地方。
I like it a lot.
我非常喜欢它。
It balances a bunch of factors.
它平衡了很多因素。
There’s other places that have a lot of those attributes, but they’re cold, like Switzerland can get cold.
其他地方也有很多这样的特征，但它们很冷，就像瑞士一样。
So Singapore is probably number one on my list.
所以新加坡可能是我名单上的第一名。
Final question: when all is said and done, what do you hope your legacy will be?
最后一个问题：归根结底，您希望您的遗产是什么？
I definitely want to work on the blockchain for a while and then eventually get back into biology.
我绝对想在区块链上工作一段时间，然后最终回到生物学领域。
I’ve got an idea for something in the genomic/quantified self space.
我对基因组/量化自我空间有一个想法。
Hopefully, that makes an impact.
希望这会产生影响。
Let’s see in a few years.
让我们几年后看看。
Balaji, thank you very much.
巴拉吉，非常感谢你。
Thank you, Tyler.
谢谢你，泰勒。