Annie Duke on Poker, Probabilities, and How We Make Decisions (Ep. 99)

The classic example would be the sensitivity versus specificity argument.

典型的例子是敏感性与特异性的争论。

If I’m out on the savannah as an evolving human and I hear rustling in the grass, it’s probably not great for me to think, what’s the probability that that’s a lion?

如果我作为一个不断进化的人类在大草原上听到草丛中的沙沙声，我可能不会想，那是一只狮子的概率有多大？

Because the downside is so great.

因为缺点实在是太大了。

The magnitude of the downside — dying — is so great that thinking categorically in that .

负面影响的严重程度——“垂死”——如此之大，以至于必须明确地思考这一点。

.

。

.

。

just yes or no in that situation probably makes sense for survival.

在这种情况下，只是“是”或“否”可能对生存有意义。

But I would love to hear your thoughts on that because I’m kind of hard pressed to think of a lot of examples in which thinking probabilistically isn’t helpful.

但我很想听听你对此的想法，因为我很难想到很多概率思考没有帮助的例子。

I always think that this goes into the category of what are you doing with the information?

我一直认为这属于你如何处理这些信息的范畴？

One of the things that I really try to think about is what’s the difference between — and I think this goes into this category, and correct me if I’m misunderstanding — but I think about what’s the difference between a goal and what’s the difference between thinking about what your expected value is.

我真正尝试思考的一件事是 - 之间的区别是什么，我认为这属于这一类，如果我误解了请纠正我 - 但我思考目标和思考你的期望值之间有什么区别。

I think that we confuse the two things — that we’re allowed to set really high goals and believe that we will reach them, and at the exact same time, we can be thinking in expected value, which of course is just thinking probabilistically combined with what the payoffs are.

我认为我们混淆了这两件事——我们可以设定非常高的目标，并相信我们会实现这些目标，同时，我们可以考虑预期价值，这当然只是概率性地考虑与回报相结合。

Understand that the expected value may be well below what our goal is.

了解预期值可能远低于我们的目标。

And I think that these two things can actually live in the same space.

我认为这两个东西实际上可以生活在同一个空间中。

It’s kind of a false dichotomy to think that you can only do one thing or the other, that if you have this kind of running ticker of, let’s call it our expected value, on the date that you can’t also be having high aspirations and some optimism about the date working out.

认为你只能做一件事或另一件事，这是一种错误的二分法，如果你有这种运行的股票，让我们称之为我们的期望值，在你不能对日期有很高的期望和一些乐观的日期。

I’m just a really big believer that those two things — not only that they can live in the same space, but it’s actually useful for them to do so.

我非常相信这两件事 ——不仅他们可以生活在同一个空间，而且这样做对他们来说实际上很有用。

On what we will and won’t bet on

我们会押注什么和不会押注什么

So when I went on my first date with my husband, my brother and brother-in-law immediately decided to make a market, and it was whether we were going to get married.

所以当我和老公第一次约会的时候，我哥哥和姐夫立刻就决定做个市场，就是我们要不要结婚。

Now to be fair, my husband and I — before we went on our first date, we’d been friends.

公平地说，我和我丈夫——在我们第一次约会之前，我们一直是朋友。

Both my brother and my brother-in-law knew my eventual husband, but this is when we’re going on our first date.

我的兄弟和姐夫都认识我最终的丈夫，但这是我们第一次约会的时候。

They make a market.

他们创造了一个市场。

I think that my brother-in-law ended up bidding 23.

我想我姐夫最终出价是 23。

My brother then called me up, cracking up, that my brother-in-law had bid 23 when we hadn’t been on a first date yet.

然后我哥哥打电话给我，笑着说我姐夫在我们还没有第一次约会的时候就出价23。

And I then started laughing at my brother, said, “Well, that means you had to bid 22.

然后我开始嘲笑我的兄弟，说：“好吧，这意味着你必须出价 22。

Why are you laughing at him?

你为什么笑他？

You somehow bid 22.

你以某种方式出价 22。

It’s our first date.” Now, that’s because we’re all people who sort of think this way.

这是我们第一次约会。”现在，那是因为我们都是这样思考的人。

And so this sort of becomes the fun of the friendship, but there are other people .

因此，这成为友谊的乐趣，但还有其他人。

.

。

.

。

I think about friends as serving different purposes.

我认为朋友有不同的用途。

I have friends who I play tennis with, and I would never make a bet with them about whether their child was going to get into a certain university, particularly if I was going to take the other side, the side that they didn’t want of the bet.

我有一些和我一起打网球的朋友，我永远不会和他们打赌他们的孩子是否会进入某所大学，特别是如果我要选择他们不希望打赌的另一方。

Because I think that people can interpret that as you think that that’s what’s going to happen.

因为我认为人们可以将其解释为您认为这就是将要发生的事情。

Because these things settled to one or zero.

因为这些东西都归结为一或零。

So if I were to get on the other side of that, if I felt that the price was right, I think that they could interpret that as me saying, “I think it’s going to settle to zero.” And I don’t think that that’s good for some friendships.

因此，如果我站在另一边，如果我觉得价格合适，我认为他们可以将其解释为我所说的，“我认为价格将趋于零。”我不认为这对某些友谊有好处。

So I don’t think that you need to bring everybody in your life into this type of thinking.

所以我认为你不需要让你生活中的每个人都进行这种思考。

And you can understand that different people bring different types of value.

而且你可以理解不同的人带来不同类型的价值。

When they did get to the Super Bowl, it might make sense — given the fact that I can have different values.

当他们确实进入超级碗时，这可能是有意义的——考虑到我可以有不同的价值观。

I can want to make money.

我可以想赚钱。

I can want to have an emotionally good feeling.

我想要有一种情感上良好的感觉。

That’s another way that I can experience a payoff — it might make sense for me to bet the other side, just so that I get some happiness, even if my team loses.

这是我能体验到回报的另一种方式 ——对我来说，下注给对方可能是有意义的，这样即使我的球队输了，我也能得到一些快乐。

I think when it comes to the Eagles, I don’t know if that would be enough.

我想对于老鹰来说，我不知道这是否足够。

I’m not sure what the number was they would have to win, where I would be happy that that team lost.

我不确定他们必须赢多少，但我会很高兴那支球队输了。

I guess you’d have to figure out what that indifference point is.

我想你必须弄清楚那个冷漠点是什么。

But yeah, I think that that’s an important thing to think about, right?

但是，是的，我认为这是值得考虑的重要事情，对吗？

Payoffs are not always monetary.

回报并不总是金钱的。

They’re sometimes emotional, so sometimes you can hedge the emotional downside with a monetary upside, and I guess you could figure out what the indifference point is to that.

他们有时很情绪化，所以有时你可以用金钱上的好处来对冲情绪上的负面影响，我想你可以弄清楚对此的冷漠点是什么。

What I think is that there are certain things about us and certain beliefs that we have that are very, very central to our identity.

我认为，关于我们的某些事情和我们拥有的某些信念对于我们的身份非常非常重要。

So when we think about something like fire insurance on our house — what home we live in, in terms of that kind of choice and whether it actually burns down — that feels very much like a matter of luck that’s happened to us.

因此，当我们考虑我们的房子的火灾保险之类的事情时——“我们住在什么样的房子里，就这种选择以及它是否真的被烧毁而言”——这感觉非常像是发生在我们身上的运气问题。

I think it’s easier for us to hedge against it because we’re not feeling that we did anything to make the bad thing happen.

我认为我们更容易对冲它，因为我们不觉得我们做了任何事情导致坏事发生。

So it gets out of the emotional space because we can offload it to luck.

所以它脱离了情感空间，因为我们可以把它交给运气。

But when we’re talking about something like our marriage, now it has to do with “What’s our commitment?

但当我们谈论像我们的婚姻这样的事情时，现在它与“我们的承诺是什么？

What’s the commitment that that person has to us?” And that now goes into this area of things that we’re making decisions about, things that have to do with who we are personally.

那个人对我们有什么承诺？”现在我们正在做决定，这些事情与我们个人有关。

And I don’t think we like to hedge very much against our identity.

我认为我们不太喜欢对冲自己的身份。

And on top of not wanting to hedge against our identity because we think of our identity as very categorical, and that really gets into that emotional space about who we are.

除了不想对冲我们的身份之外，因为我们认为我们的身份非常明确，这确实进入了关于我们是谁的情感空间。

but I think that on top of that, we have this kind of idea — and this goes into some of my quibbles with things like The Power of Positive Thinking, which ultimately realizes into The Secret — that we have this idea that if we do hedge against something, that somehow if the bad thing happens, we caused it.

但我认为最重要的是，我们有这样的想法——这也导致了我对诸如《积极思考的力量》之类的东西的一些争论，它最终在《秘密》中实现了——我们有这样的想法：如果我们确实对冲某件事，那么如果坏事发生了，不知何故，我们造成了它。

And this is particularly problematic in situations that do have very high emotional valence.

在情绪效价非常高的情况下，这尤其成问题。

Obviously, the hedge that you would put on your marriage is to have a prenup.

显然，你对婚姻的对冲就是签订婚前协议。

And we know that only about 5 percent of married couples end up with a prenup.

我们知道，只有大约 5% 的已婚夫妇最终签署了婚前协议。

And people are very emotional about that, and they’re very against it because they say, “Are you predicting I’m going to fail?” It’s a little bit like the betting problem, right?

人们对此非常情绪化，并且非常反对，因为他们说，“你预测我会失败吗？”这有点像投注问题，对吧？

Am I going to bet with you about whether your child gets into Princeton?

我要和你打赌你的孩子能否进入普林斯顿吗？

If you have a prenup, it feels like not only are you predicting that you’re going to fail, but then if the failure happens, perhaps you caused it in a magical thinking kind of way.

如果你签订了婚前协议，你不仅会感觉自己会失败，而且如果失败发生了，也许你是用一种神奇的思维方式造成的。

But this goes into this category of like, how can you be a good decision maker if you’re not really thinking about the negative outcomes that could occur?

但这属于这样的类别，如果你没有真正考虑可能发生的负面结果，你怎么能成为一个好的决策者呢？

And then trying to get out in front of those in a variety of ways, one of which might be to hedge.

然后尝试以各种方式摆脱这些困境，其中之一可能是对冲。

And one of the issues that I have with the literature and The Power of Positive Thinking, which I think ultimately expresses itself through the book The Secret .

我对文学和《积极思考的力量》的问题之一，我认为最终通过《秘密》一书表达了出来。

.

。

.

。

Are you familiar with the book The Secret?

你熟悉《秘密》这本书吗？

But I think that that’s kind of how the human mind works.

但我认为这就是人类思维的运作方式。

If I enter into a marriage and I do put the hedge on, which is a prenup .

如果我结婚并且确实设置了对冲，这就是婚前协议。

.

。

.

。

I think that the way that our minds work, it says, “Okay, now I’m going to cause that to happen.” That somehow that’s saying that I think it’s going to happen, and I’m going to cause it to happen, as opposed to just saying there’s all sorts of negative routes that your life can…

我认为我们的思维运作方式就像在说：“好吧，现在我要让这件事发生。”不知何故，这意味着我认为它会发生，并且我会促使它发生，而不是仅仅说你的生活可能会遇到各种各样的负面途径……

and you’re more likely to have success if you can think about what those routes are and actually get out in front of them.

如果你能思考这些路线是什么并真正走在它们前面，你就更有可能取得成功。

One of the things that I used to say about poker was that you better not be willing to be a poker player unless you want people to endlessly discuss golf propositions.

我曾经说过关于扑克的一件事是，你最好不要愿意成为一名扑克玩家，除非你希望人们无休止地讨论高尔夫主张。

A lot of poker players play golf, and they’re always trying to figure out how many strokes a side, and are we playing a NASA, a scramble, or whatever.

很多扑克玩家都打高尔夫球，他们总是想弄清楚一边有多少杆，我们是在玩 NASA、争夺还是其他什么。

And there’s endless conversation because they basically want to turn everything into making a market.

而且有无休无止的对话，因为他们基本上想把一切变成市场。

I think it’s just a particular mindset, and they become somewhat detached from whether that’s zero-sum or not.

我认为这只是一种特殊的心态，他们变得有点脱离这是否是零和。

Now, I think that you may know that there’s actually quite a bit of crossover between people who are trading equities and poker players.

现在，我想你可能知道股票交易者和扑克玩家之间实际上有很多交叉之处。

There’s lots and lots of poker players who have become options traders, for example, or people who are trading financial instruments.

例如，有很多扑克玩家已经成为期权交易员，或者交易金融工具的人。

There’s people who go the other direction, who are in finance who then transitioned to poker.

有些人走的是另一个方向，他们从事金融工作，然后转向扑克。

I think it’s because the minds work really similarly.

我认为这是因为人们的思维方式非常相似。

So, I’m sure that what happened was somebody read something about shark migration patterns, said it out loud to a bunch of people who play poker, and immediately they started making a market in the same way that my brother and my brother-in-law did.

所以，我确信发生的事情是有人读了一些关于鲨鱼迁徙模式的东西，对一群玩扑克的人大声说出来，然后他们立即开始像我哥哥和我姐夫那样做一个市场。

It’s fun.

这很有趣。

And how are you actually figuring out — given the environment that you’re in and the information that you have — how do I build a really good model of my opponent?

你实际上是如何弄清楚 —— 考虑到你所处的环境和你所拥有的信息 —— 我如何建立一个真正好的对手模型？

How do I figure out, given my model of my opponent, what the appropriate line is to play.

根据我的对手模型，我如何找出合适的路线。

You become somewhat, in that case, indifferent to the win or the loss, and it’s really about the game itself and solving the problem of the game.

在这种情况下，你会变得对输赢漠不关心，而这实际上与游戏本身和解决游戏问题有关。

But I think that that’s actually a relatively small handful of people who are playing poker.

但我认为实际上玩扑克的人相对较少。

One of the things that’s hard about poker is that it’s one of the only places where you’re actually — I’m looking at you and putting my hand out when we have a transaction that you’re on the wrong end of, and you have to actually put that money in my hand, face-to-face in person.

扑克的难处之一是，它是唯一一个你实际上 — 当我们进行一笔交易时你在错误的一端时，我看着你并伸出我的手，而你必须亲自面对面地将钱交到我手里。

And not only that, but in order for poker to really be fun, in general, people have to be playing for an amount of money that matters to them.

不仅如此，为了让扑克真正变得有趣，一般来说，人们必须为了对他们来说很重要的金额而玩扑克。

So by definition, when you lose, you’re having to lose in this very personal way where you’re actually handing the money to me directly.

因此，根据定义，当你输了时，你必须以这种非常个人的方式输钱，实际上你直接把钱交给了我。

And it’s by definition an amount of money that really matters to you.

从定义上来说，这是一笔对你来说真正重要的钱。

And I think that that can actually make people pretty sad.

我认为这实际上会让人们非常悲伤。

And if you’re sitting at a poker table, you’re like, “Oh yeah, loss aversion is definitely, yes.” You just see these examples of it all the time, where there’s this huge asymmetry between how sad people are when they lose versus how happy they are when they win.

如果你坐在牌桌旁，你会说，“哦，是的，损失厌恶肯定是的。”你总是会看到这样的例子，人们在输球时的悲伤程度与赢球时的快乐程度之间存在着巨大的不对称。

It’s one of those things that, unless you’re really focused on process, and I think this is a lesson for all of life, right?

这是其中之一，除非你真正专注于过程，我认为这是一生的教训，对吗？

The way to happiness is to focus on process.

通往幸福的道路是关注过程。

Then the winning becomes secondary to that.

那么获胜就变得次要了。

It becomes a way to keep score on how you’re doing on the process piece.

它成为一种对流程部分的表现进行评分的方法。

And to really focus on that as opposed to focusing on the end result, which is, what does the chip exchange look like at the end of the day?

真正关注这一点，而不是关注最终结果，即芯片交换最终会是什么样子？

If you can’t do that, I think that you’re just not going to be happy playing the game, frankly.

坦率地说，如果你做不到这一点，我认为你就不会高兴地玩这个游戏。

That’s really, really powerful as a laboratory for thinking about human decision-making, not just about the way that other people make decisions, but it really exposes you to the way that you’re thinking, and in a real way, how hard it is to avoid decision traps, even when you’re perfectly well aware that those decision traps exist.

作为思考人类决策的实验室，这真的非常非常强大，不仅仅是关于其他人做出决策的方式，而且它确实让你了解自己的思维方式，并且以一种真实的方式，避免决策陷阱是多么困难，即使你完全清楚这些决策陷阱的存在。

And how easy it is for your mind to slip into those traps.

你的思想是多么容易陷入这些陷阱。

As an example, I went into that environment, knowing full well about self-serving bias, that we tend to attribute good things to our own skill, and we tend to attribute bad things that happen to us to luck.

举个例子，我进入了那种环境，充分了解自私偏见，我们倾向于将好事归因于我们自己的技能，而我们倾向于将发生在我们身上的坏事归因于运气。

And I knew that that thing existed.

我知道那东西存在。

I had studied it.

我研究过它。

And yet when I was at the table, it’s so easy to convince yourself that you’ve lost because of bad luck and you’ve won because you made great decisions.

然而，当我在牌桌上时，很容易让自己相信，你输了是因为运气不好，你赢了是因为你做出了伟大的决定。

And you’re just sort of rinsing and repeating.

你只是进行冲洗和重复。

So, one of the things that I really loved about the game was the way it exposed that to yourself in a way that you .

所以，我真正喜欢这个游戏的事情之一就是它以一种你自己的方式向你展示这一点。

.

。

.

。

In a lot of ways, it was hard to hide from because if you weren’t seeing that clearly, you were going to lose.

在很多方面，这是很难隐藏的，因为如果你看不清楚，你就会失败。

So not only did it expose that, but then you had to start to figure out, “Okay, so how can I at least reduce the impact of that?” Which was an ongoing self-discovery process of trying to figure out how to reduce the impact of cognitive bias.

所以它不仅暴露了这一点，而且你还必须开始弄清楚，“好吧，那么我怎样才能至少减少它的影响呢？”这是一个持续的自我发现过程，试图找出如何减少认知偏见的影响。

That was really interesting.

这真的很有趣。

The other thing that I really, really loved about the game was that it happens to be one of those games that reveals itself to you as you go along.

我真的非常喜欢这款游戏的另一件事是，它恰好是一款随着你的游戏进行而向你展示自己的游戏。

What you think the game is and what you think you know about it on the first day that you play is really different than what the game has revealed to you by a year in.

你在第一天玩游戏时所认为的游戏是什么以及你所了解的内容与一年后游戏向你展示的内容确实不同。

And even 10 years in, it’s totally revealing new things to you.

即使 10 年后，它仍然向您展示全新的事物。

So it just doesn’t get stale.

所以它不会变得陈旧。

It’s this constant process of learning and discovery and trying to understand this really, really, really complex system.

这是一个不断学习和发现并试图理解这个非常非常复杂的系统的过程。

And how do I actually get myself into a position where I can actually win despite the uncertainty and despite my own frailties of mind?

尽管存在不确定性，尽管我自己的思想很脆弱，但我如何真正让自己处于一个能够真正获胜的位置？

Just as a really simple example, you could see someone who was a really, really, really good poker player and they’d be really crushing it at the table.

举一个非常简单的例子，你可以看到一个非常非常非常优秀的扑克玩家，他们会在牌桌上把它压垮。

Then the next minute, they’d be out in the casino — which is obviously negative expectancy — just dumping a bunch of money at the craps table or the baccarat table.

然后下一分钟，他们就会出现在赌场 ——这显然是负预期 ——只是在双骰子赌桌或百家乐赌桌上扔了一大笔钱。

And it would be very confusing.

这会非常令人困惑。

What was happening there?

那里发生了什么？

Why were you so good in this one domain, and then suddenly, you were making these really terrible decisions in this other domain?

为什么你在这个领域如此出色，然后突然在另一个领域做出了这些非常糟糕的决定？

So, I do think that one of the things that poker teaches you is that you shouldn’t assume that just because people are really skillful in one domain that that’s going to transfer.

所以，我确实认为扑克教会你的一件事是，你不应该仅仅因为人们在某一领域非常熟练就认为这种技能会转移。

Because I think that that ability can be very, very domain-specific.

Because I think that that ability can be very, very domain-specific.

Then I’m actually younger sister to my brother, When I was growing up, we used to actually play a lot of cards with my father, and I kind of idolized the way that they played, my dad and my brother.

然后我实际上是我哥哥的妹妹，当我长大的时候，我们实际上经常和我父亲一起玩牌，我有点崇拜他们玩牌的方式，我的爸爸和我的兄弟。

But then I would also get very mad when I’d lose to them.

但当我输给他们时，我也会非常生气。

And I would say that that definitely translates as well.

And I would say that that definitely translates as well.

On a linguistics debate with Steven Pinker

与史蒂文·平克的语言学辩论

But all right, how wonky do you want me to get?

但好吧，你想让我变得多么古怪？

That’s the question.

这就是问题所在。

Then from the words that they learn, they then can bootstrap the syntax, the grammar of the language.

然后从他们学到的单词中，他们可以引导该语言的语法。

German has a different grammatical structure than English does, which has a different grammatical structure than, say, Chinese.

德语的语法结构与英语不同，英语的语法结构也与汉语不同。

So the question was, how do you figure out the grammar?

那么问题来了，你如何弄清楚语法呢？

And he was positive that you do it from learning the meanings of some words, and then you work backwards to the grammar.

他确信你可以通过学习某些单词的含义来做到这一点，然后再回溯到语法。

That was called semantic bootstrapping.

这就是所谓的语义引导。

My advisor was on the other side of that argument, which was that, actually, you learn the syntax of the language, and then that allows you to bootstrap the meaning of the word.

我的顾问站在这个论点的另一边，那就是，实际上，你学习了该语言的语法，然后你就可以引导这个词的含义。

That would be syntactic bootstrapping.

这将是句法引导。

Some of the evidence for that would be when there are a lot of cases where kids wouldn’t have any input of a fluent grammatical language, and they invent their own grammar that’s totally grammatical within what’s possible within human grammars, even though they hadn’t any grammar inputted to them.

证明这一点的一些证据是，在很多情况下，孩子们没有任何流利的语法语言的输入，他们发明了自己的语法，这种语法在人类语法中完全符合语法，即使他们没有输入任何语法。

The two examples of that would be, there was a trend back in the ’70s to not allow kids who couldn’t hear to actually learn American Sign Language.

两个例子是，七十年代有一种趋势，不允许听不见的孩子真正学习美国手语。

They were being forced to lipread.

他们被迫读唇语。

Those children invented their own sign language, and it looked very much like a regular, natural language.

这些孩子发明了他们自己的手语，它看起来非常像一种常规的自然语言。

Another example would be, there are pidgin languages where two groups come together who speak different languages.

Another example would be, there are pidgin languages where two groups come together who speak different languages.

The adults have to communicate with each other.

大人之间要多沟通。

They basically communicate like, “Tyler, you, bottle, take.” It’s not really grammatical.

他们的沟通方式基本上是这样的：“泰勒，你，瓶子，拿走。”这并不符合语法。

But the children of those speakers create what’s called a creole.

但这些说话者的孩子创造了所谓的克里奥尔语。

And that is actually a fully grammatical language that fits in with the rules of natural language.

这实际上是一种完全符合自然语言规则的语法语言。

So the idea is that we’re born with the syntax, and then you use the syntax to figure out the words.

所以我们的想法是，我们生来就有语法，然后你使用语法来找出单词。

So the study that you’re talking about — we basically said, all right, let’s figure it out.

所以你正在谈论的研究  -  我们基本上说，好吧，让我们弄清楚这一点。

And what we found was that some pretty simple nouns, like dog, you can actually pick up from your environment without the syntax.

And what we found was that some pretty simple nouns, like dog, you can actually pick up from your environment without the syntax.

But nouns that are not about concrete things out in the world — like dog — you actually can’t really get.

但是与世界上具体事物无关的名词——比如狗——你实际上无法真正理解。

So a noun like thought would be hard.

所以像“想法”这样的名词是很难的。

What is thought?

什么是思想？

How can you see that?

你怎么能看到这一点？

You can’t point to it, but you can point to dog and people will figure out what dog means, but verbs actually are hard too unless you actually have the grammar to support it.

你不能指出它，但你可以指出狗，人们会明白狗的意思，但动词实际上也很难，除非你真的有语法来支持它。

So it turns out, kind of, everybody was right, that the idea is that you learn a few basic nouns, like dog.

事实证明，每个人都是对的，这个想法是你学习一些基本名词，比如狗。

That helps you then figure out something about the grammar that you happen to be born into.

That helps you then figure out something about the grammar that you happen to be born into.

And then once you have that grammatical structure, it allows you to start bootstrapping very quickly all the other words.

And then once you have that grammatical structure, it allows you to start bootstrapping very quickly all the other words.

That was really wonky, but you asked.

这确实很奇怪，但你问了。

So, sometimes when you see some of these things, you’re not exactly sure — is it they’re just uncomfortable because I’m staring at them?

所以，有时当你看到其中一些东西时，你不太确定 ——它们是否只是因为我盯着它们而感到不舒服？

Or are they uncomfortable because, say, they’re bluffing and they’re not comfortable that they’re bluffing?

Or are they uncomfortable because, say, they’re bluffing and they’re not comfortable that they’re bluffing?

That’s all I’m saying, is there’s noise in poker tells, so —

这就是我要说的，扑克讲述中存在噪音，所以 -

Let’s say that a situation comes up where the pod is laying you three to one.

假设出现这样一种情况，吊舱以三比一的比分对你下注。

If the pod’s laying you three to one, you only have to win the hand 25 percent of the time, and that’s actually a relatively low bar.

If the pod’s laying you three to one, you only have to win the hand 25 percent of the time, and that’s actually a relatively low bar.

If I’m playing only against one other person, the chances that I’m going to win over 25 percent of the time are pretty good.

如果我只与另外一个人对战，那么我获胜的几率会超过 25%。

I don’t actually have to think too hard in that situation about whether I should play that hand.

在这种情况下，我实际上不必认真思考是否应该玩那手牌。

But sometimes you get into a situation where I have to win the pot 25 percent of the time, and that’s actually right around where my market is sitting.

但有时你会遇到这样的情况：我必须在 25% 的情况下赢得底池，而这实际上正是我的市场所在的位置。

I’m like, “Eh, that’s pretty close.” Then, tells can come in handy because they’re extra information that can allow you to tip over onto one side or the other of your decision.

我想，“呃，那非常接近了。”然后，告诉可以派上用场，因为它们是额外的信息，可以让你转向你的决定的一侧或另一侧。

Then if you’re counting, the cards — just more complex, but it’s still very rote.

然后如果你数数的话，卡片 ——只是更复杂，但仍然非常死记硬背。

With bridge, it’s like .

有了桥，就像。

.

。

.

。

Gosh, bridge is so amazing.

天啊，桥真是太神奇了。

It’s like, how are you thinking about the way that you’re playing your cards in order to figure out where the king is sitting, or the ace is sitting?

就像，你如何思考你打牌的方式来找出国王坐在哪里，或者王牌坐在哪里？

Ohh, I love that game.

哦，我喜欢那个游戏。

Is Joan Rivers funny?

琼·里弗斯有趣吗？

And prior, when I had gotten in a heads-up situation with her when we were the final two, there’s a lag between when the show ends and when the winner gets picked, and I was letting people know, “Oh, just so you know, I’m going to lose.” And they were like, “No, you’re not.” And they would tick off all these reasons that I was going to win.

之前，当我和她单挑时，我们是最后两名，比赛结束和获胜者被选出之间有一个滞后，我让人们知道，“哦，只是让你知道，我会输。”他们说：“不，你不是。”他们会列出我将获胜的所有这些理由。

And I said, “But that’s not the rules of the game.

我说：“但这不是游戏规则。

It’s Celebrity Apprentice.

这是名人学徒。

Donald Trump picks.

唐纳德·特朗普选择。

He’s been friends with Joan Rivers forever, and she’s more famous than me.

他和琼·里弗斯一直是朋友，她比我更有名。

I literally have no shot.

我真的没有机会。

And no matter what you think the rules are, those really aren’t the rules because it’s reality TV, so he’s going to figure out a way to pick her.” I was pretty clear about that.

不管你认为规则是什么，这些都不是规则，因为这是真人秀，所以他会想办法挑选她。”我对此非常清楚。

Actually, I wasn’t particularly upset by it because I understood that that was the game that I was sitting in.

事实上，我并没有对此感到特别沮丧，因为我知道这就是我正在参与的游戏。

I was upset by other things, but not by that.

我对其他事情感到不安，但不是这个。

As an example, there’s something when people are new to poker, which is “Strong means weak, and weak and strong.” When a player puffs themselves up and takes their chip to bat, and they grab their chips and it’s a big motion, and they very forcefully put those chips into the pot, if it’s a new player, they’re almost always bluffing in that situation.

举个例子，当人们刚接触扑克时，有一句话是“强意味着弱，弱意味着强”。当一个玩家趾高气扬地拿着筹码去击球时，他们抓住了自己的筹码，这是一个很大的动作，他们非常用力地将这些筹码放入彩池中，如果是新玩家，他们在这种情况下几乎总是虚张声势。

But if they take their chips, and they’re as gentle as a mouse, they’re like, “Ooh, look, I’m betting.

但如果他们拿走了筹码，而且他们像老鼠一样温柔，他们会说：“哦，看，我打赌。

Don’t pay any attention to me.

别理我。

I’m just going to quietly slide my chips into the pot,” usually means that they’re very strong.

我只是要悄悄地将我的筹码滑入底池，”通常意味着它们非常强大。

On how poker player would think about public policy

关于扑克玩家如何看待公共政策

Another thing that’s really important that poker players think about is, “If I put this policy in that looks like it’s awesome, how can someone come in and find the cracks in it so that it can turn into something bad?” I feel like the top 500 players would definitely be thinking in that way more.

扑克玩家要考虑的另一件非常重要的事情是，“如果我把这个政策放在看起来很棒的地方，怎么会有人进来并发现其中的裂缝，从而导致它变成糟糕的东西？”我觉得500强的玩家肯定会有更多这样的想法。

Assuming that they wanted to use their powers for good as opposed to evil, which we’ll assume, I feel, in general, policies would be better, less easy to be advantaged, thinking more long-term, definitely more willing to take risks that were worthwhile.

假设他们想利用自己的权力行善而不是作恶（我们会假设），我认为，一般来说，政策会更好，更不容易获得优势，考虑更长远，肯定更愿意承担值得的风险。

Yeah, I feel like things would be better.

是的，我感觉事情会更好。

Then also, I think that there’s just a certain amount of fantasy, like, “Maybe I could be in that position and I could win big.” Or “If I had enough money, I’d bet that amount of money.” There’s some wish fulfillment.

另外，我认为存在一定程度的幻想，比如，“也许我可以处于那个位置，我可以赢得大奖。”或者“如果我有足够的钱，我会赌那么多钱。”有一些愿望的实现。

It’s an interesting question.

这是一个有趣的问题。

I’ve always thought of it is very international, but if it’s not, obviously, I’m thinking from the inside view.

我一直认为它非常国际化，但如果不是，显然我是从内部角度思考的。

I was living in poker, which seemed very multicultural when I was playing.

我生活在扑克中，当我玩扑克的时候，它看起来非常多元文化。

The other thing of course is that, I guess, in chess, you can negotiate.

当然，另一件事是，我想，在国际象棋中，你可以进行谈判。

You start with two pawns fewer than I get, so you can try to negotiate what the tipping point is.

你一开始的棋子比我少两个，所以你可以尝试协商临界点是什么。

Same in golf.

高尔夫也一样。

I’m just going to have to say I don’t know there.

我只能说我不知道​​那里。

It originated in France too, so I don’t know.

它也起源于法国，所以我不知道。

That’s a really good question.

这是一个非常好的问题。

Let’s call it a stumper.

我们称之为树桩。

On the cognitive styles and personalities of top poker players

关于顶级扑克玩家的认知风格和个性

But I also think that there are quirks about people who are attracted to poker because, given how brilliant they are and particularly how brilliant they are at game theory and expressing that and instantiating that in a real-time, high-stakes decision-making problem, I think that most of the people who are playing poker could be making more money doing something else, could be creating more productivity for the world as you said, moving out of this zero-sum situation into something that’s more win-win.

但我也认为那些被扑克吸引的人有一些怪癖，因为考虑到他们多么聪明，特别是他们在博弈论方面多么聪明，并在实时、高风险的决策问题中表达和实例化这一点，我认为大多数玩扑克的人可以做其他事情赚更多的钱，可以像你所说的那样为世界创造更多的生产力，摆脱这种零和局面进入双赢的局面。

But I think that there is something in general about who’s attracted and willing to take a haircut to go play poker, in order to do that, that has to do with a sense of independence and not necessarily fitting in with what the norms of society are.

但我认为，一般来说，谁被吸引并愿意理发去打扑克，为了做到这一点，这与独立感有关，不一定符合社会规范。

There’s a very famous story about a poker player, a really good poker player, who decided that they wanted to actually try trading instead.

有一个非常著名的故事，讲述的是一位扑克玩家，一位非常优秀的扑克玩家，他决定真正尝试交易。

So they got a job with a firm to go trade.

所以他们在一家公司找到了一份做贸易的工作。

And the first day, they didn’t show up, and they called in at, I think, 11 in the morning or something and said, “I’m sorry, I can’t take this job.

第一天，他们没有出现，我想是上午 11 点左右他们打电话来说，“很抱歉，我不能接受这份工作。

It’s just too early.” They just didn’t want to get up that early.

只是还太早了。”他们只是不想起那么早。

So, they went back to playing poker.

于是，他们又回去玩扑克了。

And I do feel like that encapsulates something about a certain group of poker players.

我确实觉得这概括了某些扑克玩家群体的某些特征。

No, just because you’re smart doesn’t mean that you can become a great player.

不，仅仅因为你聪明并不意味着你就能成为一名伟大的球员。

I think that you have to be smart in a very particular way, and it would be the way that somebody like Steven Levitt is smart or Maria Konnikova is smart.

我认为你必须以一种非常特殊的方式变得聪明，这就是像史蒂文·莱维特（Steven Levitt）或玛丽亚·科尼科娃（Maria Konnikova）这样的人聪明的方式。

I think that there’s a certain way —

我认为有某种方式 ——

In 2016, Trump — I think he closed on 538, at something between 30 and 35 percent to win.

2016 年，特朗普 ——我认为他的获胜率是 538，即 30% 到 35% 之间。

And when he won, people were like, “They were wrong.

当他获胜时，人们会说：“他们错了。

That was ridiculous.” And this is how, generally, people think.

这太荒谬了。”这就是人们通常的想法。

So, that core thing of are you good at thinking probabilistically is a bigger thing than you think.

所以，你是否善于概率思考这个核心问题比你想象的更重要。

And then on top of that, you have to be somebody who’s really interested in understanding when the things you believe are inaccurate.

最重要的是，当你相信的事情不准确时，你必须真正有兴趣去理解。

And you have to be so incredibly hungry to collide with corrective information.

而且你必须非常渴望碰撞正确的信息。

You have to be openminded to the corrective information.

您必须对纠正信息持开放态度。

You have to be updating your beliefs constantly, and I think that you just have to be willing to have less endowment to your own beliefs and hold those really loosely because you have to keep this end goal in mind.

你必须不断更新你的信念，我认为你只需要愿意减少对自己信念的天赋，并真正宽松地持有这些信念，因为你必须牢记这个最终目标。

I’m not trying to win this hand.

我并不是想赢得这手牌。

I mean, I am, but I understand that there’s all sorts of things that might intervene in my ability to do that.

我的意思是，我是，但我知道有各种各样的事情可能会影响我做到这一点的能力。

I’m trying to win in the long run.

从长远来看，我正在努力赢得胜利。

And the worst thing that I could find out is that I believed something was true and held onto that belief too long, so it affected my bottom line.

我发现的最糟糕的事情是，我相信某些事情是真实的，并且坚持这种信念太久，所以它影响了我的底线。

You just have to be thinking that way all the time.

你只需要一直这样思考即可。

And then you have to be willing to try to solve for it.

然后你必须愿意尝试解决它。

If you have those things and you’re smart, I think that in a pretty quick period of time, you could become very good at that game.

如果你拥有这些东西并且你很聪明，我认为在很短的时间内，你就会变得非常擅长这个游戏。

So yeah, could you be, if you were really concentrating and you were really working on getting better at modeling your opponent, really understanding bet size, understanding that you always want to be trying to get on the primary line of play as opposed to the secondary line of play, that gets forced on you as the markets tighten.

所以，是的，如果你真的很专注，你真的在​​努力更好地模仿你的对手，真正了解下注大小，了解你总是想尝试进入主要的比赛路线而不是次要的比赛路线，那么随着市场的收紧，这会迫使你这样做。

But that person who’s sitting in that game where they might be in the top 10 percent of their local casino — they can be choosing the secondary line of play a lot and still be crushing the game.

但是，那些坐在当地赌场中排名前 10% 的人，他们可能会经常选择次要玩法，但仍然会压垮游戏。

Once you get against the people who are real experts, who have really come up the ranks, those people are — at just such a higher percent of the time — they’re choosing the primary line.

一旦你与真正的专家、真正晋升的人对抗，这些人 ——“在更高比例的时间里”—— 他们会选择主要路线。

And when you’re butting up against that on the secondary line .

当你在次线上与之对抗时。

.

。

.

。

You’re good.

你很厉害。

You’re coming up with a pretty good option, but you’re just not coming up with the best option enough.

你提出了一个非常好的选择，但你只是没有提出足够的最佳选择。

Or you might be on the tertiary line.

或者你可能在第三线。

That might be okay if the market’s wide enough.

如果市场足够广阔的话，这可能没问题。

And how you’re sort of figuring out what’s the right choice in any given time — it’s like so many things go into that.

以及你如何在任何特定时间找出正确的选择 —— 这涉及到很多事情。

So you’re just going to butt up against ooh, that market just got really tight on you.

所以你只能对抗哦，那个市场对你来说真的很紧张。

And those things, we were sort of trying to figure out by feel, or sometimes by hand.

而这些事情，我们试图通过感觉，有时甚至用手来弄清楚。

There’s just a whole bunch of really interesting plays that players are making now that I think that we, back in the day, when we were all doing it just ourselves, I don’t know that we would’ve been able to come to them because they’re not intuitive.

现在玩家们正在制作一大堆非常有趣的游戏，我认为我们，回到过去，当我们都自己做的时候，我不知道我们是否能够找到它们，因为它们不直观。

In the same way, I think that backgammon has changed a lot, too.

同样，我认为双陆棋也发生了很大变化。

The intuition about — for somebody prior to being able to run all these simulations — about how often you should be leaving a naked checker, a shot, you would have been trying to cover those a lot more back in the ’90s.

关于 ——对于在能够运行所有这些模拟之前的人来说—— 关于你应该多久留下一个裸体棋子、一个镜头，你会在 90 年代试图更多地覆盖这些。

But what the computer simulations have shown you is that you should actually be leaving those shots a lot more often than what your intuition might tell you.

但计算机模拟向你展示的是，你实际上应该比你的直觉告诉你的更频繁地留下这些镜头。

And I think that there’s a lot of similar things in poker.

我认为扑克中有很多类似的事情。

But honestly, I can’t really give you specifics because a lot of those changes occurred after the point that I retired, which is really good for me, by the way, because I don’t know how I would have done in that environment.

但老实说，我不能真正给你具体细节，因为很多变化发生在我退休之后，这对我来说真的很好，顺便说一句，因为我不知道在那种环境下我会怎么做。

I’m not sure that at this point I’d be willing to put in the work.

我不确定此时我是否愿意投入工作。

I think if I tried to play poker today, I would just get destroyed.

我想如果我今天尝试玩扑克，我就会被摧毁。

This is my opinion.

这是我的意见。

And if you’re not willing to ponder that, which I think is difficult — I mean, the human brain isn’t really built to just be constantly thinking, Where am I wrong?

如果你不愿意思考这个问题，我认为这很困难 —— 我的意思是，人类大脑并不是真的为了不断地思考“我哪里错了？”而生的。

Where am I wrong?

我哪里错了？

Where am I wrong?

我哪里错了？

The human brain is built to go like, I’m right, I’m right, I’m right.

人类大脑的构造就是这样的：我是对的，我是对的，我是对的。

There’s a story about Phil Ivey that I think is so telling about what it takes to be a great player, where he won a really, really huge tournament.

我认为有一个关于菲尔·艾维（Phil Ivey）的故事非常能说明如何成为一名伟大的球员，他赢得了一场非常非常重要的锦标赛。

And then he went to dinner and during the dinner, all he talked about — he was just obsessed — all he talked about were the places where he felt like he didn’t bet enough, or he bet too little, or a hand he shouldn’t have played, or a hand he didn’t play and he should have, or the mistakes that he felt that he had made playing that final table.

然后他去吃晚饭，在晚宴期间，他所谈论的只是——他只是着迷——他所谈论的都是他觉得自己下注不够的地方，或者他下注太少的地方，或者他不应该玩的一手牌，或者他应该玩的一手牌，或者他认为自己在决赛桌中犯下的错误。

This is someone who had just won a huge tournament, who, by all accounts at that time, was the best player in the world.

这是一个刚刚赢得了一场大型锦标赛的人，从当时的情况来看，他是世界上最好的球员。

And I think it’s so telling that that’s what he was talking about right afterwards, was just picking apart what are all the places where he was leaving equity on the table, where he wasn’t grabbing what was sitting in front of him, and trying to clean up around the edges of that and figure out all the mistakes that he made.

我认为这很能说明问题，这就是他事后所说的，只是挑出他在桌子上留下权益的所有地方，他没有抓住他面前的东西的所有地方，并试图清理这些边缘并找出他所犯的所有错误。

And I don’t know that everybody is built for that.

我不知道每个人都是为此而生的。