Andy Weir on the Economics of Sci-Fi and Space (Ep. 31)

Science fiction is so much about creating new worlds and making them believable, and pulling the reader in.

科幻小说就是要创造新的世界，让它们变得可信，并吸引读者。

And Andy Weir is a master of that.

安迪·威尔（Andy Weir）是这方面的大师。

In his new book, Artemis, it’s set on the Moon, and the basic setting is lunar tourism.

他的新书《阿耳忒弥斯》以月球为背景，基本背景是月球旅游。

Well, actually, I’m glad you asked, because I put a huge amount of effort into that before I even started writing the book.

嗯，实际上，我很高兴你问这个问题，因为在我开始写这本书之前，我为此付出了巨大的努力。

One thing for me that’s always bugged me about stories that take place in an off-world colony are the economics of it.

对我来说，发生在地外殖民地的故事总是让我烦恼的一件事是它的经济性。

It’s like, if a story’s like, “Oh, the purpose of this lunar colony is mining,” I’m like, “Well, why don’t you have robots doing the mining for you?”

就像，如果一个故事是这样的，“哦，这个月球殖民地的目的是采矿，”我会说，“那么，为什么不让机器人为你采矿呢？”

Sure.

当然。

Why risk humans?

为什么要让人类冒险？

People mind if humans die.

人们介意人类是否死亡。

They’re not that upset when robots die.

当机器人死亡时，他们并没有那么沮丧。

So I decided tourism is kind of the answer to what is the economics behind it.

所以我认为旅游业是其背后经济学的答案。

So this is the year 2080.

所以这是2080年。

So, I’m a potential tourist.

所以，我是一个潜在的游客。

Talk me into — what’s the killer experience on the Moon?

请告诉我 — 月球上的杀手经历是什么？

Well, the main thing is tourism because Artemis is right next to the Apollo 11 landing site.

嗯，最主要的是旅游业，因为阿耳忒弥斯就在阿波罗 11 号着陆点旁边。

So it’s a site of historical significance that people like to go to.

所以这是一个人们喜欢去的具有历史意义的遗址。

Also, just dicking around in one-sixth gravity is fun.

而且，在六分之一的重力下玩耍也很有趣。

And I wasn’t making a sex joke there; I mean bouncing around and having fun.

我并不是在开性玩笑；我只是在开玩笑。我的意思是蹦蹦跳跳，玩得很开心。

Sure.

当然。

Well, it would depend on what a good Cantonese meal weighs.

嗯，这取决于一顿好的粤菜的重量。

Because I worked out with my economics stuff, I worked out the price of transporting mass to the Moon, and it works out to be — in 2015 dollars, it works out to be about 160 2015 dollars to the kilogram.

因为我用我的经济学知识进行了计算，所以我计算出了将质量运送到月球的价格，结果是：以 2015 年的美元计算，每公斤大约需要 160 2015 年的美元。

It’s not a cryptocurrency, though.

但它不是加密货币。

It’s a thing.

这是一件事。

It’s not a cryptocurrency.

它不是加密货币。

It’s actually, in a way, store credit.

在某种程度上，它实际上是商店信用。

And why is Artemis run by the Kenya Space Corporation?

为什么阿耳忒弥斯由肯尼亚航天公司运营？

Well, Kenya — in my fictional setting, Kenya had two things to offer the global space industry.

嗯，肯尼亚——在我虚构的背景中，肯尼亚可以为全球航天工业提供两件事。

Ghana would be a terrible idea, right?

加纳将是一个糟糕的主意，对吧？

Who would do it in Ghana?

谁会在加纳做这件事？

WEIR: Well, that was another candidate I thought of because it’s also on the equator.

威尔：嗯，这是我想到的另一个候选地点，因为它也在赤道上。

But .

但 。

.

。

.

。

Sure.

当然。

Travel of all kinds.

各种旅行。

Try commuting into Washington, DC.

尝试通勤前往华盛顿特区。

Right.

正确的。

COWEN: It’s a policy problem, right?

COWEN：这是一个政策问题，对吗？

Well, it’s not so much policy on that; that’s an insufficient infrastructure problem.

好吧，与其说是政策，不如说是政策。这是基础设施不足的问题。

But no, the Outer Space Treaty and our adherence to it, and other nations’ adherence to it, to these details of a treaty that’s really, really out of date now, causes a lot of problems.

但不，《外层空间条约》以及我们对它的遵守，以及其他国家对它的遵守，对条约的这些细节的遵守现在确实已经过时了，会引起很多问题。

And so, in my fictional version, Kenya says like, “We’re going to interpret the treaty a little differently, so that, yeah, we’re not going to let people militarize space, and we’re not going to let people claim territory outside of Earth.

因此，在我的虚构版本中，肯尼亚说，“我们将对条约进行稍微不同的解释，因此，是的，我们不会让人们将太空军事化，我们不会让人们声称对地球以外的领土拥有主权。

All the main bullet points of the treaty, we’re going to preserve.

我们将保留该条约的所有主要要点。

But we’re not going to require a specific type of FM transmitter to be aboard every probe so that we can monitor them.” You know, all this stuff like the US does.

但我们不会要求每个探头都配备特定类型的 FM 发射器，以便我们可以监控它们。”你知道，所有这些事情就像美国所做的那样。

So by doing that, they drew in this multibillion-dollar commercial space industry into Kenya, and tax them very little, but still tax them.

因此，通过这样做，他们将价值数十亿美元的商业航天产业引入肯尼亚，并对其征税很少，但仍然征税。

So Kenya benefits, the space community benefits.

因此肯尼亚受益，太空界受益。

Given our unwillingness to lose individual human lives these days, which is a theme in your earlier novel, The Martian, and we’re less willing to do a kind of experimental process, will space travel, and especially reentry, ever be safe enough that middle-class, say, Americans, even in 2080, are going to put their lives on the line going to the Moon?

鉴于如今我们不愿意失去个人生命，这是您早期小说《火星救援》中的一个主题，而且我们也不太愿意进行某种实验过程，那么太空旅行，尤其是重返大气层，是否足够安全，以至于中产阶级，比如说美国人，即使在 2080 年，也会冒着生命危险前往月球？

I would not do it, but I don’t even like to fly.

我不会这样做，但我什至不喜欢飞行。

So I’m the wrong person to ask.

所以我问错了人。

I have a phobia of flying.

我有飞行恐惧症。

I have to take meds just to be able to get on a plane.

我必须吃药才能上飞机。

So, me personally, no.

所以，就我个人而言，不。

In your story, you raised the possibility that this Moon base might in fact be a kind of economic bubble because the increase in population is slowing down, population might even be turning negative, and this danger of a kind of colony collapse.

在你的故事中，你提出了这样的可能性：这个月球基地实际上可能是一种经济泡沫，因为人口增长正在放缓，甚至可能出现人口负数，以及这种殖民地崩溃的危险。

I hope this isn’t a spoiler.

我希望这不是剧透。

Do you thus also think that countries on the Earth today with declining populations are possibly also bubbles?

您是否也认为当今地球上人口减少的国家也可能是泡沫？

No, countries on the Earth today are very different than Artemis.

不，当今地球上的国家与阿尔忒弥斯有很大不同。

Artemis has at least .

阿尔忒弥斯至少有。

.

。

.

。

Well, you learn more about its economy later on in the book, but Artemis is a delicate economy because it’s a single-source income.

好吧，您将在本书后面了解更多有关其经济的信息，但阿耳忒弥斯是一个微妙的经济，因为它是单一来源的收入。

So it’s like a resort town.

所以它就像一个度假小镇。

So there’s not much income from mining, say?

那么挖矿收入并不多，是吗？

No, there’s actually pretty much zero income when you think of it as a .

不，当你把它视为一个时，实际上收入几乎为零。

.

。

.

。

like a trade deficit point of view.

比如贸易逆差的观点。

They don’t export the aluminum that they create.

他们不出口自己生产的铝。

They use the aluminum to build more Artemis.

他们用铝来建造更多的阿耳忒弥斯。

In your economic model, how expensive is water on the Moon?

在你的经济模型中，月球上的水有多贵？

Well, water would .

嗯，水会。

.

。

.

。

Water weighs a kilogram per liter, right?

水每升重一公斤，对吗？

So if you wanted to just straight up ship water to the Moon, that would cost you 1,000 slugs a liter.

因此，如果你想直接将水运送到月球，每升将花费 1,000 个蛞蝓。

Correct.

正确的。

You get rid of as much water as you bring into your body.

您排出的水量与您进入体内的水量一样多。

As much water as you bring in, comes out, through your breath, a lot more than you expect actually comes out through your breath, and then through urine and feces, and sweat and everything else.

你通过呼吸吸入、排出的水量，实际上比你想象的要多得多，然后通过尿液、粪便、汗水和其他一切排出。

So, really, what you’re paying for when you want water in Artemis is water purification.

所以，实际上，当你想要阿耳忒弥斯的水时，你所付出的代价就是水净化。

Even on Earth, it can be efficient to drink your recycled urine, right?

即使在地球上，饮用回收的尿液也是有效的，对吗？

So surely on the Moon, that’s likely to be the case.

所以在月球上，情况很可能就是这样。

What do you think of Elon Musk and other private space efforts?

您如何看待埃隆·马斯克和其他私人太空努力？

I think private space and commercial space industries like that are the way forward.

我认为私人太空和商业太空产业是前进的方向。

I think that’s how we will reach a point where we end up with a booming space industry, and I think that’s how the price to low Earth orbit will eventually be driven down far enough that middle-class people can afford it.

我认为这就是我们将如何达到航天工业蓬勃发展的地步，我认为这就是近地轨道的价格最终将被压低到中产阶级能够负担得起的程度。

And once we reach that magic point, then there’ll be a huge space boom.

一旦我们达到那个神奇点，就会出现巨大的太空繁荣。

It’ll become a multitrillion-dollar industry, like the commercial airline industry.

它将成为一个价值数万亿美元的产业，就像商业航空业一样。

Here’s a question from a reader: quote, “I would love to hear his thoughts on NASA’s Office of Planetary , the guys who try to keep our organisms from ‘infecting’ other planets.

这是一位读者提出的问题：引用：“我很想听听他对 NASA 行星办公室的看法，这些人试图阻止我们的有机体‘感染’其他行星。

Sterilizing everything that we send to other worlds is very expensive and it might be important or it might not.” What’s your take?

对我们发送到其他世界的所有东西进行消毒是非常昂贵的，而且它可能很重要，也可能不重要。”你怎么看？

I am not a fan.

我不是粉丝。

And I’ve mentioned this a few times in the past.

我过去曾多次提到过这一点。

If you think the answer is yes, well, OK.

如果您认为答案是肯定的，那么好吧。

I think the answer is no, in which case it’s already infected.

我认为答案是否定的，这样的话它就已经被感染了。

Do you believe in the panspermia hypothesis?

你相信有生源说吗？

And if you do, does this imply we should actually subsidize sending nonsterilized life forms to Mars?

如果你这样做，这是否意味着我们实际上应该资助向火星发送未灭菌的生命形式？

Because there’s always some chance that you would create some kind of long-term panspermia hypothesis scenario on other planets.

因为你总是有可能在其他行星上创造某种长期的有生源假说场景。

Well, my understanding of the panspermia hypothesis is that there was a single genesis of life, but that may have infected multiple planets.

嗯，我对有源论假说的理解是，生命只有一个起源，但可能感染了多个行星。

Doesn’t have to be a single, but there’s a smaller number of origin points than final number of planets with life.

不一定是单个行星，但起源点的数量比最终有生命的行星数量要少。

The basic conceit is that life was able to, through some natural processes or accident of fate, get from one planet to another, take root and then also go there.

基本的想法是，生命能够通过一些自然过程或命运的偶然，从一个星球到达另一个星球，扎根，然后也去那里。

But let’s say it’s 2080, your books have continued to do very well —

但假设现在是 2080 年，你的书仍然卖得很好——

Your grandchildren are billionaires and they’ve read your books, maybe —

你的孙子是亿万富翁，他们读过你的书，也许——

I like this.

我喜欢这个。

They’ve talked to you and they think, “I’m going to send out some self-replicating Von Neumann probes, powered by solar energy.” And they’re going to try to seed the rest of the galaxy with life.

他们和你谈过，他们想，“我要发射一些由太阳能驱动的自我复制冯·诺依曼探测器。”他们将尝试在银河系的其他地方播下生命的种子。

Most people who try this will fail, but philanthropy is a somewhat unusual and diverse endeavor.

大多数尝试这种做法的人都会失败，但慈善事业是一项不同寻常且多样化的事业。

I think the best self-replicating machines are ourselves.

我认为最好的自我复制机器就是我们自己。

I mean, we’re really a lot better at it than any machines that we’ll have by 2080.

我的意思是，我们在这方面确实比 2080 年我们拥有的任何机器都要好得多。

I understand what you’re saying with the Von Neumann machines —

我明白你对冯·诺依曼机器的看法 -

Just send bacteria, right?

就送细菌吧？

It’s cheap.

它很便宜。

Just send .

发送即可。

.

。

.

。

Yeah.

是的。

Bacteria —

细菌——

Whatever you can pack in .

能装什么就装什么。

.

。

.

。

Chuck Berry songs and bacteria.

查克·贝里的歌曲和细菌。

Yeah, right.

是的，对。

It would be a lot easier to genetically engineer a bacteria that could survive on Mars than to create a Von Neumann device that could reproduce itself on Mars.

基因改造一种可以在火星上生存的细菌比制造一个可以在火星上自我繁殖的冯·诺依曼装置要容易得多。

I mean, why not take advantage of all this stuff that the first two billion years or so of evolution — that worked all this out for you?

我的意思是，为什么不利用前 20 亿年左右的进化过程中的所有这些东西——它们为你解决了这一切呢？

Now let me ask you some questions about governance in space.

现在让我问你们一些关于太空治理的问题。

I’ve read some of your favorite works are by Robert Heinlein, Moon Is a Harsh Mistress; Red Mars of course by Kim Stanley Robinson; Asimov’s Caves of Steel.

我读过一些你最喜欢的作品，包括罗伯特·海因莱因的《月亮是严厉的情妇》；当然是金·斯坦利·罗宾逊（Kim Stanley Robinson）的《红色火星》；阿西莫夫的《钢铁之洞》。

And it’s a consistent theme in these stories.

这是这些故事的一致主题。

In fact, the stories you love, they involve an element of rebellion.

事实上，你喜欢的故事都包含着叛逆的元素。

They do.

他们确实这么做了。

If we had a colony on the Moon, how long do you think it would be before that colony would seek independence from Earth rule?

如果我们在月球上有一个殖民地，您认为该殖民地需要多长时间才能寻求脱离地球统治的独立？

Well, first off, it wouldn’t be Earth rule.

好吧，首先，这不是地球规则。

It would be ruled by some specific country.

它将由某个特定国家统治。

Right?

正确的？

Sure, or company.

当然，或者公司。

Or .

或者 。

.

。

.

。

Country.

国家。

You can’t really seek independence from a company.

你不能真正寻求独立于公司。

Well, it could be like the East India Company, right?

嗯，它可能像东印度公司，对吧？

Right.

正确的。

They’re much nicer than the East India Company was.

他们比东印度公司好得多。

Yeah, well, the Kenya Space Corporation in my book is just .

是的，嗯，我书中的肯尼亚航天公司只是。

.

。

.

。

They have a very simple business model.

他们有一个非常简单的商业模式。

They build Artemis and then rent out lots.

他们建造阿耳忒弥斯，然后出租土地。

They don’t try to control its economy or its people or anything.

他们不会试图控制其经济或人民或任何东西。

They’re literally just landlords, and absentee landlords at that.

他们实际上只是房东，而且是缺席的房东。

But you can’t declare independence from a company because, by definition, the company owns all the assets.

但你不能宣布独立于公司，因为根据定义，公司拥有所有资产。

Well, you’re stealing, in a way.

好吧，从某种程度上来说，你是在偷窃。

But it happens, right?

但它确实发生了，对吧？

Yeah.

是的。

But if you’re talking about some sort of revolution or something like that, well I guess the first step is you’d have to be pretty sure that you are self-sufficient and independent.

但如果你谈论某种革命或类似的事情，那么我想第一步是你必须非常确定你是自给自足和独立的。

You have to be, like, Earth-independent.

你必须独立于地球。

Which, in the case of Artemis, it’s not.

但就阿尔忒弥斯而言，事实并非如此。

But you have some allies.

但你有一些盟友。

So what’s now the United States declares independence from what was then Britain, and the French help us.

所以现在的美国宣布从当时的英国独立，法国人帮助我们。

Other people who are upset at Britain help the American colonies to become independent.

其他对英国感到不满的人帮助美洲殖民地独立。

Possibly.

可能吧。

Ultimately, I believe that all major events in history are economic.

归根结底，我相信历史上所有重大事件都是经济事件。

And, I mean, independence was really about who gets to collect taxes, right?

而且，我的意思是，独立实际上是关于谁可以征税，对吗？

So if the people who live in a city are content with the economic status that they have, they’re not going to rebel.

因此，如果居住在城市的人们对自己的经济状况感到满意，他们就不会反抗。

People don’t .

人们没有。

.

。

.

。

People, despite what you see, I would challenge you to show me any situation where people revolted over purely ideology without any economic reason.

各位，无论你们看到什么，我都会挑战你们向我展示人们在没有任何经济原因的情况下纯粹出于意识形态而反抗的情况。

But think about the American colonies.

但想想美国殖民地。

So the British were taxing us maybe 5 percent of GDP —

所以英国人对我们征收的税可能是GDP的5%——

And the American colonies preferred that those taxes went to the American colonial governments.

美洲殖民地更愿意将这些税收交给美国殖民政府。

COWEN: Yes, absolutely.

考恩：是的，绝对如此。

But it wasn’t that much money, in a sense.

但从某种意义上来说，这并没有多少钱。

That to me is what’s surprising.

这对我来说是令人惊讶的。

Well, at that time, taxes globally were not that much money.

嗯，当时全球的税收并没有那么多钱。

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah, they always end up being political thrillers and that’s not what I’m going for.

是的，它们最终总是成为政治惊悚片，但这不是我想要的。

I’m showing the frontier town and the kind of cooperative aspects of human nature.

我展示的是边疆小镇和人性的合作方面。

I’m not .

我不是。

.

。

.

。

On Earth, do you think we should experiment more with seasteading?

在地球上，你认为我们应该对海上稳定进行更多实验吗？

Set up sea colonies?

建立海上殖民地？

Yeah.

是的。

Underground colonies?

地下殖民地？

Absolutely.

绝对地。

Have them be politically autonomous, if they want?

如果他们愿意的话，他们有政治自主权吗？

You would have to change maritime law to be able to do that.

你必须修改海事法才能做到这一点。

Right now, under maritime law, you can seastead.

现在，根据海事法，您可以在海上定居。

I mean, you can do it right now.

我的意思是，你现在就可以做。

You can go out into the international waters and build something.

你可以到国际水域去建造一些东西。

You have to flag to some country, though.

不过，您必须挂旗前往某个国家/地区。

Right.

正确的。

A cruise ship, yeah.

一艘游轮，是的。

Yeah.

是的。

Well, yeah, you could flag to like Suriname or something like that.

嗯，是的，你可以标记喜欢苏里南或类似的国家。

You could fly a flag of convenience.

你可以悬挂方便旗。

But, one way or another, you are subject to the laws of the country that you’re flying the flag of, just as Artemis is subject to the laws of Kenya.

但是，无论如何，您都受您悬挂国旗的国家/地区的法律约束，就像 Artemis 受肯尼亚法律的约束一样。

Now, one theme in your story The Martian is this difference between an individual life and a statistical life.

现在，你的故事《火星救援》的一个主题是个人生活和统计生活之间的差异。

And I think on the very last page of The Martian, you mention that hundreds of millions of dollars were spent to save this one life.

我想在《火星救援》的最后一页，你提到花费了数亿美元来拯救这个生命。

And it’s clear that in the actual real world, we would do something similar.

很明显，在现实世界中，我们会做类似的事情。

But if you consult economic studies, well, what is a life supposed to be worth, an anonymous life?

但如果你查阅经济学研究，那么，匿名的生活应该具有什么价值？

That often comes in at about $8 to $10 million.

通常价值约为 8 至 1000 万美元。

COWEN: What is your view?

考恩：你的看法是什么？

OK, for that single life, of course we’ll spend the hundreds of millions; everyone’s watching on TV.

好吧，单身生活当然要花几个亿，每个人都在看电视。

But what are the limits of spending that kind of money to save individual lives?

但花这么多钱来拯救个人生命有什么限制呢？

Where do you draw the line?

你在哪里划清界限？

How do you think about that philosophically?

您从哲学角度如何看待这一点？

Well, I guess it would come down to .

好吧，我想这会归结为。

.

。

.

。

If you were going to spend that money to save other lives instead, how many could you save?

如果您打算花这笔钱来拯救其他人的生命，您可以拯救多少人？

Right.

正确的。

Right.

正确的。

So it’s like, well, you can spend $50 million to save this one person, or you can save these 80 people by giving them much-needed surgeries or something like that.

所以这就好像，你可以花 5000 万美元来拯救这个人，或者你可以通过给他们提供急需的手术或类似的东西来拯救这 80 个人。

Smoke detectors.

烟雾探测器。

You’ll never know which people you saved.

你永远不会知道你拯救了哪些人。

But you never really know.

但你永远不知道。

But that’s when the devil’s in the details, in your fitness formula, where you’re like, “OK, how many people, how many human lives will I save by dumping $1 million into cancer research?” How many human lives does that save?

但问题就在于细节，在你的健身公式中，你会想，“好吧，通过投入 100 万美元用于癌症研究，我可以拯救多少人、多少人的生命？”这可以挽救多少人的生命？

It could be zero, right?

它可能为零，对吗？

It could be zero.

它可能为零。

But that could be that last million that makes the aha moment.

但这可能是最后一百万让人顿悟的时刻。

Or if you amortize it over all the money that’s ever been spent on cancer research, and then versus all the lives that have ever been saved by cancer research .

或者，如果你将其摊销到用于癌症研究的所有资金上，然后再与癌症研究所挽救的所有生命进行比较。

.

。

.

。

That, you see, it’s all about the fitness formula.

你看，这都是关于健身公式的。

So it’s one of those questions that is deceptively simplistic, but ultimately gets really, really complicated when you start drilling down into the details.

所以这是一个看似简单的问题，但当你开始深入研究细节时，最终会变得非常非常复杂。

Let me ask —

让我问一下——

Well, let me ask you this.

好吧，让我问你这个。

Let me ask you one.

让我问你一个。

Yes.

是的。

Let’s say we can cure cancer; we can do it today.

假设我们可以治愈癌症；我们今天就能做到。

And we almost can.

我们几乎可以。

This will be a reality soon.

这很快就会成为现实。

Well, OK.

好吧，好吧。

But let’s say all other attempts fail at malaria.

但假设所有其他治疗疟疾的尝试都失败了。

We don’t know what to do.

我们不知道该怎么办。

But then, here’s — aliens from outer space come and they say, “We’ll tell you what, we’re going to give you the cure to malaria and we’ll just eradicate the Anopheles mosquito.

但是，来自外太空的外星人来了，他们说：“我们会告诉你，我们会给你治疗疟疾的方法，我们会消灭按蚊。

And all malaria will be gone from your planet forever.

所有疟疾都将从你们的星球上永远消失。

But we want all your redwoods.” All right, “We want every redwood tree on your planet; we want it to become extinct.

但我们想要你们所有的红杉。”好吧，“我们希望你们星球上的每一棵红杉树都消失；我们希望它灭绝。

We hate redwoods; it’s part .

我们讨厌红杉；这是一部分。

.

。

.”

”。

It’s a deal.

这是一笔交易。

They could ask for a lot more, in fact.

事实上，他们可以要求更多。

Right.

正确的。

They could ask for a lot more.

他们可以要求更多。

So it would be OK for us to render the redwood, the entire species, extinct, if we could save the millions of people a year that malaria kills.

因此，如果我们每年能拯救数以百万计的被疟疾夺走生命的人，那么我们就可以让红杉整个物种灭绝。

I’ll toss in the elms to wipe out pink eye.

我会扔进榆树来消除红眼病。

Yeah, yeah, yeah, to wipe out pink eye.

是啊，是啊，是啊，要消除红眼病。

Yeah.

是的。

No.

不。

Well, now you’ve just .

好吧，现在你刚刚。

.

。

.

。

Somewhere between those two things is the value of human life versus the value of redwoods.

介于这两件事之间的是人类生命的价值与红杉的价值。

COWEN: Sure.

考恩：当然。

I think we should be more impersonal in terms of how we think about value of human lives.

我认为我们应该更加客观地看待人类生命的价值。

But in individual cases, we so often aren’t.

但在个别情况下，我们常常不是这样。

Let me ask you some questions about particular technologies, but feel free to pass if you don’t have an opinion.

让我问你一些关于特定技术的问题，但如果你没有意见，请随意通过。

I think 3-D printing is a major technology in manufacturing, in general.

我认为总体而言，3D 打印是制造业的一项主要技术。

So it’s not specific to the space industry.

所以它并不是航天工业特有的。

It’s like saying, “Oh, how do you think refining steel affects industry?” It’s like, it affects everything.

这就像在说：“哦，你认为炼钢对工业有何影响？”就像，它影响一切。

And so I think 3-D printing is something that will have this omnipresent effect across all aspects of manufacturing, including the space industry.

因此，我认为 3D 打印将对制造业的各个方面产生无所不在的影响，包括航天工业。

Will a lunar settlement use blockchains as a substitute for some forms of centralized command and control?

月球定居点是否会使用区块链来替代某些形式的集中指挥和控制？

You mean like .

你的意思是像。

.

。

.

。

Like behind Bitcoin.

就像比特币背后一样。

But you can use blockchains to register property titles, to store decentralized information.

但你可以使用区块链来注册产权，存储分散的信息。

No. Not at all.

不，一点也不。

Not at all?

一点也不？

I don’t think that’ll happen at all.

我认为这根本不会发生。

I also don’t think that cryptocurrency is a good idea.

我也不认为加密货币是一个好主意。

Why not?

为什么不呢？

Because investing, if you are investing in a .

因为投资，如果你投资的是 .

.

。

.

。

If the currency’s inherent value is the potential for the currency to go up, that’s always going to fail, as a currency.

如果货币的内在价值是货币上涨的潜力，那么作为一种货币，它总是会失败。

Every time in history that people have tried that, it’s failed.

历史上，每次人们尝试这样做，都失败了。

OK.

好的。

Without exception.

无一例外。

As a science fiction author, how do you view the evolution of social media?

作为一名科幻作家，您如何看待社交媒体的演变？

Including how it would relate to a lunar settlement.

包括它与月球定居点的关系。

Facebook on the Moon?

脸书登陆月球？

I don’t see why not.

我不明白为什么不。

Harmful?

有害？

Beneficial?

有利？

Neither.

两者都不。

Both.

两个都。

Neither?

两者都不？

So, neutral?

那么，中立？

Yeah, it’d be about .

是的，大约是。

.

。

.

。

I mean, Artemis, there’s nothing magical about it.

我的意思是，阿尔忒弥斯，这没有什么神奇的。

It’s a city that’s on the Moon, but humans are still humans and they do what they do.

这是月球上的一座城市，但人类仍然是人类，他们做他们所做的事。

So whatever they do in another small town that’s fairly isolated, they do in Artemis.

因此，无论他们在另一个相当偏僻的小镇做什么，他们都会在阿耳忒弥斯做。

One of your favorite novellas is Robert Heinlein’s Tunnel in the Sky, and there’s a new technology in that story where you enter a kind of tunnel and you can emerge at some other very distant place.

你最喜欢的中篇小说之一是罗伯特·海因莱因的《天空隧道》，故事中采用了一项新技术，你进入一种隧道，然后就可以出现在其他非常遥远的地方。

It’s almost a bit like teleportation, but they don’t wipe out a copy of you.

这几乎有点像隐形传送，但它们不会消灭你的副本。

You’re still you.

你还是你。

Yeah.

是的。

If we had this in the world, what do you think is the most fundamental change it would bring?

如果世界上有这样的东西，你认为它会带来什么最根本的变化？

If we had basically teleportation?

如果我们基本上有隐形传送呢？

Something like teleportation, but it does not obliterate the individual being teleported.

类似传送的东西，但它不会抹去被传送的个体。

Right.

正确的。

Yeah .

是的 。

.

。

.

。

Heinlein’s Tunnel in the Sky.

海因莱因的天空隧道。

Something like that, but where .

类似的事情，但是在哪里。

.

。

.

。

And with precision, like we could have .

并且精确，就像我们可以做到的那样。

.

。

.

。

We could just go, “I wanna go to LA right now.”

我们可以说，“我现在想去洛杉矶。”

Yeah.

是的。

You don’t fall into a volcano.

你不会掉进火山里。

Right.

正确的。

You get to appear on the corner of Santa Monica and .

你会出现在圣莫尼卡和 的拐角处。

.

。

.

。

That would have massive, tumultuous effects because there would no longer be any such thing as borders or territory.

这将产生巨大而混乱的影响，因为边界或领土之类的东西将不再存在。

Like, if people can teleport, then how .

就像，如果人们可以传送，那么如何传送。

.

。

.

。

Let’s say you’ve got a country.

假设你有一个国家。

How do you defend that when your enemies can just teleport into the middle?

当你的敌人可以传送到中间时，你如何防御？

Ultimately, you would end up, very quickly, with a global government.

最终，很快就会出现一个全球政府。

How do you think through the equilibrium there?

您如何看待那里的平衡？

Could you imagine nation states become stronger?

你能想象民族国家变得更强大吗？

They require all individuals be tagged in some way.

他们要求所有个人都以某种方式被标记。

If you appear in a territory and you’re not tagged, the drones come; they strike you down immediately.

如果你出现在某个地区并且没有被标记，无人机就会来；他们会立即击倒你。

Is it possible you’d have less mobility, because you would invest up front in this tagging technology?

是否有可能您的流动性会降低，因为您会预先投资这种标记技术？

I think the first thing .

我认为第一件事。

.

。

.

。

Once again, for me, it always comes down to the tech and the details.

再说一次，对我来说，这总是取决于技术和细节。

However this tunnel system works, the first thing that countries would try to do is say, “Can I build a shield, such that you can’t make a tunnel into here?” COWEN: Yeah.

不管这个隧道系统如何运作，各国要做的第一件事就是说：“我可以建造一个盾牌，这样你就无法在此处修建隧道吗？”考恩：是的。

But say you can actually make the tunnel.

但假设你真的可以建造隧道。

You may be vulnerable when you appear —

当你出现时，你可能很脆弱——

Like that it’s unstoppable?

这样就势不可挡了？

There’s no way to stop the tunneling process, though you can shoot them when they get off the proverbial boat.

虽然你可以在他们从众所周知的船上下来时射杀他们，但没有办法阻止挖掘隧道的过程。

Yeah, no, that’s rough.

是的，不，这很粗糙。

That basically means there is no such thing as borders and no way of preventing people .

这基本上意味着没有边界这样的东西，也没有办法阻止人们。

.

。

.

。

So global GDP falls, in your view?

那么您认为全球 GDP 下降了？

In the short term, for sure.

从短期来看，是肯定的。

In the long term?

从长远来看？

In the long term, you end up with one global government, because one entity that’s powerful enough to do it finally says, “You know what?

从长远来看，最终会出现一个全球政府，因为一个足够强大的实体最终会说：“你知道吗？

Screw this, we’re going to control everything so that this is no longer an issue.”

管它呢，我们将控制一切，这样这就不再是问题了。”

Even individual governments, as you know, they put mobility restrictions often on citizens.

如您所知，即使是个别政府也经常对公民施加行动限制。

So if you’re in China, you live in the countryside —

所以如果你在中国，你住在农村——

You can’t go to the city.

你不能去城市。

You want to move to Shanghai, you can’t just appear there legally.

你想搬到上海，你不能只是合法地出现在那里。

You may appear in a black market sort of way.

您可能会以某种方式出现在黑市中。

So, I suspect also, it would be a kind of dystopia to have Heinlein’s Tunnel in the Sky.

所以，我也怀疑，海因莱因的天空隧道将是一种反乌托邦。

To be fair, in Tunnel in the Sky, they weren’t anywhere near that precise.

公平地说，在《天空隧道》中，它们远没有那么精确。

Yes.

是的。

It’ll put you kind of somewhere on a planet.

它会把你带到一个星球上的某个地方。

And that may be better, right?

这可能会更好，对吗？

It was really, really .

真的，真的。

.

。

.

。

Oh, and also, a supernova happened somewhere in the galaxy and it completely screwed up the system, and they couldn’t retrieve the people who used it.

哦，还有，银河系某个地方发生了一颗超新星，它彻底搞乱了系统，他们无法找回使用它的人。

And so they were all stranded on that planet.

所以他们都被困在那个星球上了。

And why do you like Tunnel in the Sky so much?

为什么你这么喜欢天空隧道？

Why is that an interesting story for you?

为什么这对你来说是一个有趣的故事？

Oh, it’s a survival story.

哦，这是一个生存故事。

It’s people versus nature.

这是人与自然的对抗。

I love that sort of stuff, as you may have noticed.

我喜欢这类东西，你可能已经注意到了。

Sure.

当然。

Thanks.

谢谢。

— science fiction authors that do one or the other, but you’re the guy who integrates them both.

— 科幻小说作家会两者兼而有之，但你是将两者结合起来的人。

And you never say this up front, but that to me is one thing so striking about your two novels.

你从来没有事先说过这一点，但对我来说，这是你的两部小说中最引人注目的一件事。

Oh, well, thank you.

哦，好的，谢谢你。

Now, in all of these interviews, there’s a segment in the middle; it’s called “Overrated versus Underrated.”

现在，在所有这些采访中，中间都有一个片段；这就是所谓的“高估与低估”。

All right.

好的。

So I toss out a name, an idea; you’re free to pass.

于是我抛出了一个名字，一个想法；你可以自由通过。

COWEN: You’re not required to offend anyone, but you tell me if you think it’s overrated or underrated.

COWEN：你不需要冒犯任何人，但如果你认为它被高估或低估了，请告诉我。

All right.

好的。

The movie Blade Runner, director’s cut.

电影《银翼杀手》，导演剪辑版。

Correctly rated.

正确评价。

And how do you rate it?

您如何评价它？

I love it.

我喜欢它。

Blade Runner 2049, the new one.

《银翼杀手 2049》，新作。

I have not seen it yet.

我还没见过。

OK.

好的。

Because my girlfriend has made it clear that I will be severely punished if I watch it without her, and we haven’t had time with my book tour to go somewhere together.

因为我女朋友明确表示，如果我在没有她的情况下看这部电影，我会受到严厉的惩罚，而且我们还没有时间和我的售书旅行一起去某个地方。

Edgar Rice Burroughs.

埃德加·赖斯·巴勒斯。

Kind of underrated, because people have pretty much forgotten all his contributions to fiction.

有点被低估了，因为人们几乎忘记了他对小说的所有贡献。

So I’ve got to give that an underrated.

所以我必须低估它。

OK.

好的。

Robinson Crusoe, the novel.

鲁宾逊漂流记，小说。

Also underrated.

也被低估了。

It’s the first fictional adventure story, ever.

这是有史以来第一个虚构的冒险故事。

He invented that.

他发明了这个。

And he invented —

他发明了——

And your book —

还有你的书——

Well, and of course, The Martian is a .

嗯，当然，《火星救援》是一部。

.

。

.

。

I mean, there’s a whole category of books called “Robinsonade,” and The Martian is one of them.

我的意思是，有一整类叫做“罗宾索纳德”的书，《火星救援》就是其中之一。

So The Martian’s influenced by Daniel Defoe?

那么《火星救援》受到了丹尼尔·笛福的影响吗？

Yeah.

是的。

Yeah.

是的。

It’s a great book, I think.

我认为这是一本很棒的书。

One of my favorites.

我最喜欢的之一。

So is every adventure, really.

每一次冒险都是如此，真的。

In a way, so is every adventure novel.

在某种程度上，每部冒险小说也是如此。

It was one of the first just fictional adventure stories.

这是最早的虚构冒险故事之一。

And it’s still gripping.

它仍然扣人心弦。

It’s still good.

还是不错的。

Yeah.

是的。

Underrated.

被低估了。

I love — it’s my favorite of all of them.

我爱——这是我最喜欢的。

What’s your favorite episode?

你最喜欢哪一集？

Ooh.

哦。

“Balance of Terror,” I think.

“恐怖平衡”，我想。

The one where they’re fighting —

他们正在战斗的地方——

Is that a D.

那是D吗？

C.

C.

Fontana script?

丰塔纳剧本？

I don’t know who wrote it.

我不知道是谁写的。

Yeah.

是的。

I liked “Balance of Terror,” and of course I loved “Mirror, Mirror.”

我喜欢《恐怖平衡》，当然我也喜欢《镜子，镜子》。

Yeah.

是的。

That’s one of my favorites.

这是我的最爱之一。

I mean, Star Trek invented the idea of an evil parallel dimension.

我的意思是，《星际迷航》发明了邪恶平行维度的想法。

That’s another —

那是另一个——

Is that original to Star Trek?

这是星际迷航的原创吗？

Yeah.

是的。

The idea of like your evil counterpart has a goatee, that came from “Mirror, Mirror” because Evil Spock had a goatee.

“就像你的邪恶对手有山羊胡一样”这个想法来自“镜子，镜子”，因为邪恶的斯波克有山羊胡。

That’s right.

这是正确的。

Yeah.

是的。

That’s where that came from.

这就是它的来源。

And the optimistic vision in the original Star Trek, do you find that persuasive?

原版《星际迷航》中的乐观愿景，你觉得有说服力吗？

Yeah, I love it.

是的，我喜欢它。

I have a very optimistic view of the future.

我对未来抱有非常乐观的看法。

It’s my belief that every century is better than the last.

我相信每个世纪都比上一个世纪更好。

And if you don’t believe me, let’s say I pointed a gun at you and pointed you at my time machine and said, “You have to go back in time some exact number of centuries, but you get to pick.” You’re going to choose one century.

如果你不相信我，假设我用枪指着你，指着你的时间机器说：“你必须回到过去几个世纪，但你可以选择。”你将选择一个世纪。

You’re not going to want to go back further than that.

你不会想再往前走。

You’re going to want to go as far forward in time as you are allowed to go.

你会想要在时间允许的范围内走得尽可能远。

I don’t want to go back.

我不想回去。

But if you give me the choice to live born in 1962 as I was, or to go 400 years into the future, I think I would stick with the status quo.

但如果你让我选择是活在 1962 年出生的我，还是活到 400 年后的未来，我想我会坚持现状。

Just simply because of your comfort level?

仅仅因为您的舒适程度？

I know I’m surviving to a particular age with more to come, and maybe history is cyclical .

我知道我已经活到了一个特定的年龄，而且还会有更多的年龄，也许历史是循环的。

.

。

.

。

I’d go straight to the 400 years in the future, because imagine you ask some guy in 1617, “You want to go 400 years in the future, or stay here?” Right.

我会直接进入 400 年后的未来，因为想象一下你在 1617 年问某个人，“你想要去 400 年后的未来，还是留在这里？”正确的。

So that guy now, he has a life expectancy of maybe 50 if he’s lucky, and he’s probably going to die in the Hundred Years’ War.

那么现在那个家伙，运气好的话，寿命大概有五十岁，很可能就会死在百年战争中。

I mean, you’re way better off going 400 years in the future.

我的意思是，如果你再过 400 年，情况会好得多。

Find me any spot in history where you’re better off 400 years earlier.

给我找出历史上任何 400 年前你过得更好的地方。

Well, there are dark ages.

嗯，有黑暗时代。

You’d rather be around the time of Jesus Christ than, say, in the year 600 AD, for instance, in Western Europe.

例如，你宁愿生活在耶稣基督的时代，也不愿生活在公元 600 年的西欧。

I’m not sure about that.

我对此不太确定。

By 600 AD, the Romans had stopped pillaging all of Europe, right?

到公元 600 年，罗马人已经停止了对整个欧洲的掠夺，对吗？

And so, now, nation states had solidified and it was a much more peaceful era.

因此，现在民族国家已经巩固，这是一个更加和平的时代。

Overrated or underrated: disco music?

高估还是低估：迪斯科音乐？

Underrated.

被低估了。

Disco will never die, my friend.

迪斯科永远不会消亡，我的朋友。

And what in disco music do you advocate?

您主张什么迪斯科音乐？

All of it.

所有这一切。

All of it.

所有这一切。

Your favorite?

你最喜欢的？

Oh, boy.

哦，男孩。

Donna Summer, maybe.

唐娜·萨默，也许吧。

That would be my pick, Donna Summer.

这就是我的选择，唐娜·萨默。

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

是啊，是啊，是啊。

That’s great, yeah.

那太好了，是的。

Yeah.

是的。

I am a fan of disco.

我是迪斯科舞迷。

I admit it.

我承认。

What’s the main way in which Moriarty differs from Sherlock Holmes?

莫里亚蒂与福尔摩斯的主要区别是什么？

He’s a little bit older, and he does not let pesky things like a code of ethics or honor get in his way.

他年纪大了一些，他不会让道德准则或荣誉等烦人的事情妨碍他。

How ethical is Holmes, in your view?

在您看来，福尔摩斯的道德水平如何？

Because it seems in most of these stories, he violates the rule of law, he runs around with a pistol.

因为在大多数故事中，他似乎违反了法治，他拿着手枪到处乱跑。

Very often, he doesn’t catch the criminal; in some stories, but that’s rare.

很多时候，他抓不到罪犯；在一些故事中，但这种情况很少见。

He often just figures out a mystery.

他常常只是解开一个谜。

He is at odds with the police.

他与警方不和。

A Sherlock Holmes today —

今天的福尔摩斯——

Sometimes.

有时。

— would we consider him a terrorist, a freedom fighter, a superhero?

——我们会认为他是恐怖分子、自由斗士还是超级英雄吗？

We’d consider him a police procedural detective.

我们认为他是一名警察程序侦探。

Here’s another question from a reader: quote, “Peter Thiel remarks often how modern science fiction .

这是一位读者提出的另一个问题：引用，“彼得·泰尔经常评论现代科幻小说……

.

。

.

。

depicts science and technological progress often as dangerous or bad,” like in the movie The Terminator or Hunger Games.

通常将科学和技术进步描述为危险或糟糕”，就像电影《终结者》或《饥饿游戏》中那样。

“This is a departure from writers like Asimov, Heinlein, and Clarke,” who are mostly very pro-technology, pro-science, optimistic vision.

“这与阿西莫夫、海因莱因和克拉克等作家不同”，他们大多非常支持技术、科学和乐观的愿景。

“What’s responsible for this cultural shift?”

“造成这种文化转变的原因是什么？”

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Interests in fiction and what people are buying goes up and down and changes over time.

人们对小说和购买物品的兴趣会随着时间的推移而上下波动。

I think lately YA fiction, young adult science fiction, has all been basically the same story told about 20 different times.

我认为最近的青少年小说、青少年科幻小说基本上都是将同一个故事讲述了 20 次不同的时间。

Correct, and dystopic.

正确，而且反位。

Yeah, a dystopian future with a semi-fascist government and plucky young upstarts fighting against it.

是的，这是一个反乌托邦的未来，有半法西斯政府和勇敢的年轻暴发户与之对抗。

And that’s an interesting story, but I think it’s been done to death.

这是一个有趣的故事，但我认为它已经死了。

Just like zombies were a little overdone a few years ago as well.

就像几年前的僵尸也有点过头了一样。

There is sort of a technophobia out there, and I don’t buy into it.

那里存在某种技术恐惧症，我不认同这种说法。

I feel like technology generally makes things better.

我觉得技术通常会让事情变得更好。

And control.

并控制。

It’s all about control, technology.

这一切都与控制和技术有关。

But you being controlled, not you controlling the natural world.

但你被控制了，而不是你控制了自然世界。

But what is it, you think, in your individual biography that accounts for your greater loyalty to what is now the fairly old Asimov-Heinlein-Clarke tradition, when the other writers coming up, they’re mixed attitudes?

但你认为，在你的个人传记中，是什么让你对现在相当古老的阿西莫夫-海因莱因-克拉克传统更加忠诚，当其他作家出现时，他们的态度是复杂的？

But you’re one of the most optimistic, most pro-science — this integration of economics and engineering.

但你是最乐观、最支持科学的人之一——经济与工程的融合。

What is it in you that has produced that?

你身上是什么造成了这样的结果？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Maybe I’m just an optimist.

也许我只是一个乐观主义者。

Just an optimist.

只是一个乐观主义者。

Maybe it’s as simple as that.

也许就这么简单。

From birth?

从出生开始？

Maybe.

或许。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Now, Isaac Asimov, as you know, he came up with his Three Laws of Robotics.

现在，艾萨克·阿西莫夫，如你所知，他提出了机器人三定律。

No harm, obey, self-preservation, in a strictly hierarchical order.

不伤害、服从、自我保护，有严格的等级秩序。

Those date from the 1940s.

这些可以追溯到 20 世纪 40 年代。

That’s now a long time ago.

那已经是很久以前的事了。

We’ve seen a lot more from technology, and, in fact, in robotics.

我们从技术中看到了更多，事实上，在机器人技术中也看到了更多。

Do you think that you, Andy Weir, today in 2017, could improve on Asimov’s Three Laws?

你认为你，安迪·威尔，在 2017 年的今天，可以改进阿西莫夫三定律吗？

You mean like if I was going to write —

你的意思是说如果我要写——

You get to write some number of laws to govern robots.

你可以制定一些法律来管理机器人。

To govern robots?

管理机器人？

You don’t get three million, but you can have more than three.

你不能得到三百万，但你可以拥有三百万以上。

Could you improve on Asimov’s laws?

你能改进阿西莫夫定律吗？

I’ve got to say yes.

我必须说是的。

Because I was a computer programmer for 25 years, so I’m actually pretty good at that stuff.

因为我做了 25 年的计算机程序员，所以我实际上非常擅长这些东西。

And do you have a nomination for how you would improve on the Three Laws, just one bit?

您是否有关于如何改进三定律的提名，只是一点点？

You would need a very, very detailed description of what constitutes harming a human.

您需要非常非常详细地描述什么构成伤害人类。

What constitutes allowing a human to come to harm.

什么构成允许人类受到伤害。

What constitutes obeying a human, and what constitutes self-preservation.

什么是服从人类，什么是自我保护。

How good do you think the ethical programs embodied in autonomous vehicles will be?

您认为自动驾驶汽车所体现的道德计划有多好？

And this is coming pretty soon, right?

这很快就会到来，对吧？

Well, yeah, this is a real question that we have to ask.

嗯，是的，这是我们必须问的一个真正的问题。

There’s nothing like, your car is not going to conspire against you.

没有什么比，你的车不会密谋反对你的了。

It’s just a program that it’s running, right?

它只是一个正在运行的程序，对吗？

Right.

正确的。

Now the question is, do you want to buy a car that under certain rare circumstances would choose to sacrifice you for some reason?

现在的问题是，你想买一辆在某些罕见情况下会因为某种原因而选择牺牲你的汽车吗？

Like, it concludes that it’s like, “Oh, that’s a bus .

就像，它的结论是，“哦，那是一辆公共汽车……”

.

。

.

。

Due to events beyond anybody’s control, I’m about to crash.

由于任何人都无法控制的事件，我即将崩溃。

I can either hit that bus and my passenger will be OK, or I can go off that cliff and everyone on the bus will be OK and my passenger will be dead.” If you’re driving the car, no one blames you for trying to preserve your own life.

我可以要么撞上那辆公共汽车，我的乘客就会没事，要么我可以跳下悬崖，公共汽车上的每个人都会没事，而我的乘客就会死。”如果你开车，没有人会责怪你试图保护自己的生命。

No one holds you at fault for choosing your own life over anything else in a snap decision.

没有人会因为你仓促决定选择自己的生活而责怪你。

Right.

正确的。

But if it’s something that can be coldly calculated in advance and your car is making the decision, then people will start saying, “No, no, no, cars should do this, that, and the other thing.” And I’d be like, “I’m not sure I want a car that doesn’t prioritize me.” Then you start to get into the ethics of people hacking their cars, so that they’re like, “No, no, no, I’ve uploaded this patch that makes my car pick me.” COWEN: So you go on Match.com and part of the profile request is to enter, in certified fashion, what kind of program you’ve chosen for your car.

但如果这是可以提前冷计算的事情，而你的汽车正在做出决定，那么人们就会开始说，“不，不，不，汽车应该做这个，那个，还有其他的事情。”我会说，“我不确定我想要一辆不优先考虑我的车。”然后你开始了解人们黑客攻击他们的汽车的道德规范，这样他们就会说，“不，不，不，我已经上传了这个补丁，让我的车选择了我。” COWEN：所以您访问 Match.com，个人资料请求的一部分是以经过认证的方式输入您为您的汽车选择的程序类型。

Right?

正确的？

For your car.

为了你的车。

Could be.

可能是。

No, actually .

不，实际上。

.

。

.

。

What does the equilibrium look like?

平衡是什么样的？

Do we still all go selfish?

我们仍然变得自私吗？

Well, first off, yes.

嗯，首先，是的。

But second off, that would certainly be against the law.

但其次，这肯定是违法的。

So it would not be something you would broadcast.

所以这不会是你会广播的东西。

Mercedes sells altruistic cars and they’re all pink.

梅赛德斯销售无私的汽车，而且它们都是粉红色的。

The selfish cars are black.

自私的汽车是黑色的。

The selfish cars would be outlawed, is what I’m saying.

我的意思是，自私的汽车将被取缔。

This would be a policy issue, not a consumer choice issue.

这是一个政策问题，而不是消费者选择问题。

And you think it will be a policy issue?

您认为这将是一个政策问题吗？

Yeah, I’m sure.

是的，我确定。

Once you have self-driving cars, there’s going to be all sorts of laws about like, oh, there’s a new law that says, “In this situation, a self-driving car must do this thing.” Just as we have traffic laws now.

一旦拥有自动驾驶汽车，就会有各种各样的法律，比如，哦，有一条新法律说，“在这种情况下，自动驾驶汽车必须做这件事。”就像我们现在有交通法规一样。

I believe they just passed regulations in Germany forbidding self-driving cars from assigning higher values to younger lives than older lives.

我相信德国刚刚通过了法规，禁止自动驾驶汽车为年轻的生命赋予比年长的生命更高的价值。

OK.

好的。

Are you for that or against it?

你是支持还是反对？

It’s a big morass.

这是一个大沼泽。

It’s just this big brand-new ethical mess that is going to be politics, basically.

基本上，这种全新的道德混乱将成为政治。

It’s going to be politics.

这将是政治。

This is not a technology issue.

这不是技术问题。

This is humans making rules about what humans do with technology.

这是人类为人类如何使用技术制定规则。

Let me ask you a few questions about some of your very early fiction, which you originally wrote online.

让我问你一些关于你最初在网上写的一些早期小说的问题。

You have a story called “The Egg,” one of your most famous works.

你有一个故事叫《鸡蛋》，这是你最著名的作品之一。

If the world was such where all the other people we dealt with, we felt were in some way reincarnations of ourselves, how much nicer do you think we would be to them?

如果世界是这样的，我们所接触的所有其他人，我们都觉得在某种程度上是我们自己的转世，你认为我们会对他们好多少？

Or over time, might it be not that much at all?

或者随着时间的推移，可能根本就没有那么多了？

Well, there’s two schools of thought on that, and I’ve gotten a lot of feedback on “The Egg.” One thing is you’d be like, “Whoa, this guy I’m talking to, that’s me.

嗯，对此有两种观点，我收到了很多关于“鸡蛋”的反馈。一件事是你会说，“哇，正在和我说话的这个人，那就是我。

I’m going to experience this from his point of view or maybe I already have.

我将从他的角度经历这一点，或者也许我已经经历过。

I should be nice, we should all be nice; we should all cooperate.” Another school of thought is that people would be like, “Oh, that tribe of people over there, they’re less enlightened than our tribe.

我应该友善，我们都应该友善；我们都应该合作。”另一种思想流派是，人们会说，“哦，那边的那个部落的人，他们没有我们部落那么开明。

They’re all earlier versions of the one soul and we’re later versions.

他们都是同一个灵魂的早期版本，而我们是后来的版本。

We know what’s best, and that’s why it’s OK for us to kill them because they’re just earlier versions of us.

我们知道什么是最好的，这就是为什么我们可以杀死他们，因为他们只是我们的早期版本。

So killing them is no different than changing your mind and becoming more enlightened.” So any afterlife philosophy can either be turned into “we should be nice to each other” or “we should kill everyone.”

所以杀掉他们和改变你的想法、变得更加开悟没有什么不同。”因此，任何来世哲学都可以变成“我们应该善待彼此”或“我们应该杀死所有人”。

And what’s your prediction for which is the equilibrium?

您对均衡的预测是什么？

That’s a tough call.

这是一个艰难的决定。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

We do have —

我们确实有——

If everybody on Earth firmly believed in “The Egg,” I think the argument would quickly become who are the older souls.

如果地球上的每个人都坚信“蛋”，我认为争论很快就会变成谁是更古老的灵魂。

If we’re thinking about questions of cultural assimilation, would a discovered mermaid or merman have an easier time blending into the rest of society and being accepted?

如果我们考虑文化同化的问题，被发现的美人鱼或人鱼是否会更容易融入社会其他部分并被接受？

And you’ve written on this, too, of course.

当然，你也写过这方面的文章。

You’re talking about .

你说的是。

.

。

.

。

You want me to choose between mermaid or merman?

你想让我选择美人鱼还是人鱼？

Merman.

人鱼。

Which would have an easier time —

哪个会更容易一些——

Which of those two would have an easier time?

这两个人谁的日子会更轻松一些？

Being accepted into modern American society?

被现代美国社会接受吗？

That is a really random question.

这是一个非常随机的问题。

I guess a mermaid would have a slightly easier time because more people understand the concept of a mermaid than a merman.

我想美人鱼的日子会稍微容易一点，因为更多的人比人鱼更了解美人鱼的概念。

People understand, well, there must be a male of the species, but everybody knows what mermaids are.

人们明白，这个物种必须有雄性，但每个人都知道美人鱼是什么。

And you think more men would be willing to date a mermaid than women would be willing to date a merman?

你认为愿意和美人鱼约会的男人多于愿意和人鱼约会的女人吗？

Well, I’d have to ask about the biology of the mermaid.

好吧，我得问一下美人鱼的生物学。

Of course.

当然。

That would be a factor, I’m sure.

我确信这将是一个因素。

If you had the power to go anywhere without being tossed out, again a premise from one of your stories, where would you actually choose to go?

如果你有能力去任何地方而不被抛弃，这又是你的一个故事的前提，你实际上会选择去哪里？

Oh.

哦。

Oh, that’d be awesome.

哦，那太好了。

I’d just go into major sporting events; I’d just walk in and go .

我只会参加大型体育赛事；我只是走进去。

.

。

.

。

watch the Super Bowl from the sidelines and go to the World Series.

从场边观看超级碗比赛并观看世界职业棒球大赛。

That’d be lots of stuff.

那会是很多东西。

I would of course —

我当然会——

But you can go to these now, right?

但你现在可以去这些地方了，对吧？

This is —

这是——

Yeah, well, no, I don’t have that kind of access, right?

是的，好吧，不，我没有那种访问权限，对吗？

And other things is like, anytime I’d want to travel, I’d just .

其他的事情就像，任何时候我想去旅行，我都会。

.

。

.

。

just go right up into some unoccupied first-class seat in a plane.

直接坐到飞机上某个空着的头等舱座位上就可以了。

It’s like I might —

就像我可能——

Is there any place you would go that you cannot currently go right now?

有没有什么地方是你想去但现在不能去的？

Like right now, you more or less can’t go to North Korea.

就像现在，你或多或少不能去朝鲜。

Right.

正确的。

Would you go there?

你会去那里吗？

No, I’m not that interested in that.

不，我对此没那么感兴趣。

There’s probably a bunch of places I would go simply because other people aren’t allowed to go.

我可能会去很多地方，只是因为其他人不被允许去。

Like I’d just wander around Buckingham Palace, just because I can now.

就像我只是在白金汉宫闲逛一样，只是因为我现在可以了。

Right.

正确的。

It would be neat.

这会很整洁。

I’m like, “Oh, so this is the secret, deep innermost chamber of the Pentagon, huh?

我想，“哦，所以这是五角大楼最秘密的最里面的房间，是吧？

Neat.” With no agenda other than just to see it.

整洁。”除了看看之外没有任何议程。

Let me ask you a few questions about you.

让我问你几个关于你的问题。

Again, you always have the freedom to pass.

再说一次，你总是有通过的自由。

But in one of your interviews you say that you often read dialogue out loud to yourself.

但在一次采访中，您说您经常给自己大声朗读对话。

I do.

我愿意。

Why do you do that?

你为什么这么做？

What function does it serve?

它有什么功能？

To make sure the conversation flows and makes sense, I need to hear it, audibly.

为了确保对话流畅且有意义，我需要听得见。

I need to hear it with my ears, not just see it with my eyes, in order to make sure that the sentences flow.

我需要用耳朵听到，而不仅仅是用眼睛看到，才能确保句子流畅。

It’s just kind of how I think.

这就是我的想法。

And do you put on different voices for different characters, or it all sounds like Andy Weir?

你会为不同的角色配上不同的声音吗？还是听起来都像安迪·威尔（Andy Weir）？

I do end up with .

我最终确实得到了。

.

。

.

。

Well, the affect that the characters would be putting in, like if they’re mad and the other one’s like, “Calm down.” I’ll do a little bit of voice acting.

好吧，角色会表现出的情感，就像他们生气了而另一个人会说“冷静点”。我会做一点配音。

But yeah, you would really think that I was crazy if you just watched me write for a while.

但是，是的，如果你只看我写一会儿，你真的会认为我疯了。

Now, The Martian was written online first, and, in a way, in serial form, like the great 19th century novelists.

现在，《火星救援》首先是在网上写成的，并且在某种程度上是以连载的形式，就像 19 世纪伟大的小说家一样。

Yeah.

是的。

A bit at a time and you would spoon it out to readers and get feedback.

一次一点，你会把它舀给读者并获得反馈。

And Artemis, it seems to me, wasn’t.

而阿耳忒弥斯，在我看来，却不是。

The methods of writing, how do you feel it’s shaped the final output in each case?

写作方法，你觉得它如何塑造了每种情况下的最终输出？

How would you compare those two?

您如何比较这两者？

Well, since The Martian was a serial, I was much more locked into each chapter after it was written.

嗯，由于《火星救援》是一部连续剧，所以写完后我对每一章都更加投入。

So I’d write a chapter and post it online.

所以我会写一章并将其发布到网上。

Now, I didn’t consider those chapters to be set in stone, and I would go back and make minor corrections and changes, and I told the readers that in advance.

现在，我不认为这些章节是一成不变的，我会回去做一些小的修正和改变，我提前告诉了读者。

I’m like, “Hey, if I need to go back a few chapters and change something, I’m going to do that.” But still, I had a strong impetus to consider anything that’s been released as done, inviolate.

我想，“嘿，如果我需要回去几章并改变一些东西，我就会这么做。”但尽管如此，我还是有强烈的动力去认为任何已经发布的东西都是不可侵犯的。

Right.

正确的。

And also, it gave me a really strong desire to have each chapter end with kind of a cliffhanger.

而且，它给了我一种非常强烈的愿望，让每一章都以一种扣人心弦的方式结束。

And what method will you use for your next book?

您的下一本书将使用什么方法？

The same as Artemis.

和阿尔忒弥斯一样。

I like the traditional publishing route.

我喜欢传统的出版路线。

One of the things to me that’s striking about your work, is just how good you are at synthesizing what you learn and then improving on it in a continuous sort of way.

对我来说，你的工作中最引人注目的一件事是，你非常善于综合你所学到的知识，然后以持续的方式改进它。

I hope so.

我希望如此。

Thank you.

谢谢。

It’s a kind of engineering approach, but applied to writing and the knowledge you need behind writing.

这是一种工程方法，但适用于写作以及写作背后所需的知识。

If I ask you the question I ask many of our guests, the Andy Weir production function — you started from not being a professional writer, you wrote online, you were paid zero.

如果我问你这个我问过很多客人的问题，安迪·威尔的制作功能 ——你从不是一名专业作家开始，你在网上写作，你的报酬为零。

Yes.

是的。

COWEN: Now, you’re famous, you receive huge sums of money, your books are made into movies.

考恩：现在，你出名了，你收到了巨额金钱，你的书被拍成了电影。

Yeah, it’s awesome.

是的，太棒了。

I recommend it.

我推荐它。

How would you describe the Andy Weir production function, so that we have insight into your comparative advantage that helped you become successful?

您如何描述安迪·威尔的生产函数，以便我们深入了解帮助您取得成功的比较优势？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

I’m sure luck played a large part of it.

我确信运气占了很大一部分。

Yeah.

是的。

Why didn’t you drop out sooner?

你为什么不早点退学？

Because I hadn’t run out of money yet.

因为我的钱还没有花完。

It was my intention to get a computer science degree, but then I ran out of money before finishing college and I had to enter the workforce.

我的本意是获得计算机科学学位，但后来我在大学毕业前就花光了钱，不得不参加工作。

And at that time, it was the mid-’90s and the tech bubble was still inflating, and there was such a huge demand for engineers.

当时正值90年代中期，科技泡沫仍在膨胀，对工程师的需求如此巨大。

I could make pretty good money as an entry-level programmer.

作为一名入门级程序员，我可以赚很多钱。

So my choice was either get paid what, for me at the time, was a pretty good salary, or go deeply into debt to continue college.

所以我的选择是要么获得对当时的我来说相当不错的薪水，要么负债累累继续上大学。

I chose the money.

我选择了钱。

Let’s say —

比方说——

Economics.

经济学。

Economics.

经济学。

It’s all about economics.

这都是关于经济的。

What if there were two immortal people, let’s say it’s the two of us, placed on opposite sides of the Earth, an Earth-like planet, and we can wander freely with no constraints but just foot speed.

如果有两个不朽的人，假设是我们两个，放在地球的两侧，一个类地行星，我们可以自由地漫步，没有任何限制，只有脚步的速度。

How long does it take us to find each other?

我们需要多长时间才能找到彼此？

Can we collude in advance in any way?

我们可以以任何方式提前串通吗？

No, we cannot.

不，我们不能。

OK.

好的。

But we know we’re trying to find each other.

但我们知道我们正在努力寻找彼此。

We know we’re trying to find each other.

我们知道我们正在努力寻找彼此。

Well, we should both — but can we have a — are we both rational actors and we —

好吧，我们都应该 —— 但是我们可以有一个 —— 我们都是理性的行为者并且我们——

We’re as rational as you and I are; take that as you wish.

我们和你我一样理性；就如你所愿吧。

So, no?

那么，不？

No.

不。

I think the best thing to do would be for both of us to pick an arbitrary great circle to walk, around the planet, and leave markings along the way denoting what direction you’re walking.

我认为最好的办法是我们俩都选择一个任意的大圆圈来绕地球行走，并沿途留下标记来指示你行走的方向。

So I would arbitrarily pick a direction to go and I would just go that direction with the intention of circumnavigating the entire globe, and I would walk at maybe half what is a comfortable speed for me.

所以我会任意选择一个方向，我会朝着那个方向走，意图环绕整个地球，我会以对我来说舒适的速度的一半行走。

And you would do the same thing.

你也会做同样的事情。

Now, somewhere, our two — in fact, in two points — our great circles will intersect.

现在，在某个地方，我们的两个——事实上，在两点——我们的大圆将会相交。

Right.

正确的。

And when one of us reaches the other one’s, then they start following the markers at full speed, and then you get the guy.

当我们中的一个到达另一个的时候，他们就开始全速跟随标记，然后你就抓住了那个人。

Right?

正确的？

And what’s your best guess as to how long that would take?

您对这需要多长时间的最佳猜测是多少？

Well, if you pick two points, I’m guessing one of us would have to walk probably about a quarter of the way around the planet before we found the other one’s great circle.

好吧，如果你选择两个点，我猜我们中的一个可能必须绕地球走大约四分之一的路程才能找到另一个的大圆。

And then you’d have to walk again.

然后你就得再次步行。

So in terms of circumnavigation times, it would take you 2x to get all the way around the planet, because my initial plan was you’d walk half-speed.

因此，就环球航行时间而言，你需要两倍的时间才能绕地球一圈，因为我最初的计划是你以半速行走。

So I’m guessing it would be a quarter of that, so one-half x to get to your great circle, and then a quarter x to find you along your great circle, on average, I’m guessing.

所以我猜平均来说会是四分之一，所以一半 x 到达你的大圈，然后四分之一 x 沿着你的大圈找到你，我猜。

So one-half plus a quarter, so .75x.

所以二分之一加四分之一，所以 0.75 倍。

So three-quarters of the time that it would take to circumnavigate the planet.

这是环绕地球一周所需时间的四分之三。

OK, great answer.

好的，很好的答案。

That’s my guess.

这是我的猜测。

The lead character in Artemis, I believe she’s 26 years old, her name is Jazz, she’s a woman, and she’s from Saudi Arabia.

《阿尔忒弥斯》中的主角，我相信她今年 26 岁，她的名字叫爵士，她是一名女性，来自沙特阿拉伯。

Why that choice?

为什么这样选择？

When I originally conceived .

当初怀胎的时候。

.

。

.

。

Well, so I designed the whole city and all the science and economics behind it before I came up with any characters or the story.

好吧，所以在我想出任何角色或故事之前，我设计了整个城市及其背后的所有科学和经济学。

Right.

正确的。

And so I had the city in place, and I’m like, “Now, I’m going to make characters and a story.” So I came up with a story and I needed, for this first rev of the story, I needed kind of a smuggler type, a shady person, but not a bad person.

所以我已经准备好了这座城市，我想，“现在，我要制作角色和故事。”所以我想出了一个故事，对于这个故事的第一版，我需要一种走私者类型，一个阴暗的人，但不是一个坏人。

And so this is how Jazz got created.

这就是爵士乐的诞生方式。

I was like, “Well, it’s a very international town; I’m going to pick a country at random that I haven’t used yet: Saudi Arabia.

我当时想，“嗯，这是一个非常国际化的城镇；我要随机选择一个我还没有使用过的国家：沙特阿拉伯。

OK, and I’ll make her a woman.” Done.

好吧，我会让她成为一个女人。”完毕。

And she was only going to be in like two or three scenes.

她只会出现两三个场景。

But that story, ultimately, for unrelated reasons, didn’t work out.

但这个故事最终由于不相关的原因没有成功。

It wasn’t very good.

这不太好。

I didn’t like the plot; I didn’t like the characters.

我不喜欢这个情节；我不喜欢这些角色。

So I set that aside and I came up with a new story, taking elements I liked from the first chunk, characters and plot elements that I liked from the first draft, and put it together.

所以我把它放在一边，想出了一个新故事，从第一部分中提取我喜欢的元素，从初稿中提取我喜欢的角色和情节元素，然后将它们放在一起。

In the second one, Jazz was a little more prevalent but still very much a secondary character.

在第二个中，爵士乐稍微流行一些，但仍然是次要角色。

She wasn’t the main character, the lead character, at all.

她根本不是主角，主角。

And then that story didn’t work, but I was like, “This character Jazz is pretty interesting, and the idea of writing a story about a kind of a little of a rogue might work.” So that’s when I moved into what is now Artemis, what Artemis became, which is a story all about Jazz.

然后那个故事不起作用，但我想，“爵士这个角色非常有趣，写一个关于一个小流氓的故事的想法可能会起作用。”所以就在那时我搬进了现在的阿尔忒弥斯，阿尔忒弥斯变成了这样，这是一个关于爵士乐的故事。

And by that time, she was so cemented in my mind as being a Saudi woman that my imagination would have rebelled if I had tried to change her into being something I’m more familiar with, like a guy or whatever.

那时，她在我心目中已经深深地成为了一名沙特女性，如果我试图把她变成我更熟悉的人，比如一个男人或其他什么，我的想象力就会反叛。

And some of the bad guys, they’re a Brazilian crime syndicate, right?

其中一些坏人是巴西犯罪集团，对吧？

Uh-huh.

嗯嗯。

O Palacio.

帕拉西奥啊。

Where did you get that idea from?

你从哪里得到这个想法的？

I needed an organized crime syndicate for the story, and I wanted to just .

我需要一个有组织的犯罪集团来讲述这个故事，而我只想……。

.

。

.

。

I was like, “OK, I don’t want to go with La Cosa Nostra or the Russian mob or anything.” I wanted to invent something new.

我当时想，“好吧，我不想和黑手党或俄罗斯暴徒或其他什么人在一起。”我想发明一些新东西。

And so I said, “Well, I want a big, fairly significant country with a large economy,” are the best places to get good, solid crime syndicates.

所以我说，“好吧，我想要一个拥有庞大经济体的大国，相当重要的国家”，这是获得优秀、可靠的犯罪集团的最佳场所。

We have awesome big old mafias here in the US and Japan or Russia.

在美国、日本或俄罗斯，我们有很棒的老黑手党。

You don’t get a lot of organized crime in small economies.

在小型经济体中，不会出现大量有组织犯罪。

So I picked Brazil because it’s like a country that you don’t often hear about.

所以我选择了巴西，因为它就像一个你不常听说的国家。

And I’m sure, and I’m certain, they have lots of organized crime there, just like every other major country, but it’s not a stereotypical organized crime source in fiction.

我确信，而且我确信，他们那里有很多有组织犯罪，就像其他所有主要国家一样，但这并不是小说中典型的有组织犯罪来源。

And if there’s a Brazilian crime syndicate killing people, trying to kill people, on Artemis, does that mean it’s poorly governed by the Kenya Space Corporation, in your model?

如果阿耳忒弥斯上有一个巴西犯罪集团杀人、试图杀人，这是否意味着在你的模型中，肯尼亚航天公司对它的管理不善？

Well, the rule of law is iffy in Artemis, and that’s clear through the whole novel.

嗯，《阿耳忒弥斯》中的法治是不稳定的，这一点在整部小说中都很清楚。

It’s difficult for them to enforce law, and this was actually kind of a central theme, is they’re like, “Oh crap, we really .

他们很难执行法律，这实际上是一个中心主题，他们会说，“哦，糟糕，我们真的……”

.

。

.

。

We are on the verge of basically being owned by this syndicate.”

我们正处于基本上被这个集团所拥有的边缘。”

But if you think about the country of Iceland, Iceland is extremely safe.

但如果你想想冰岛这个国家，冰岛就非常安全。

You know in Iceland if you kill someone, you can’t escape, right?

你知道在冰岛如果你杀了人，你就无法逃脱，对吧？

It’s an island, not many roads, not many people — people know each other.

这是一座岛屿，道路不多，人也不多——人们彼此认识。

It’s not the only reason why crime in Iceland is low, but a big reason.

这不是冰岛犯罪率低的唯一原因，但却是一个重要原因。

Why isn’t Artemis more like Iceland?

为什么阿尔忒弥斯不像冰岛呢？

That there’s so little anonymity, so few possibilities for escape, that the crime rate is either zero, or it’s crimes the Kenya Space Corporation wants to have happening?

匿名性如此之低，逃跑的可能性如此之少，以至于犯罪率要么为零，要么这是肯尼亚航天公司希望发生的犯罪？

Right.

正确的。

Well, the scenario that you’re describing as a hypothetical is true in the book.

嗯，你所描述的假设场景在书中是真实的。

Artemis has very little crime.

阿耳忒弥斯的犯罪率非常低。

And the crimes that are happening are fairly minor, in the grand scheme of things.

从整体来看，正在发生的犯罪行为相当轻微。

There aren’t, like, unsolved murders in Artemis.

阿尔忒弥斯里不存在悬而未决的谋杀案。

And when there is a major crime, it’s always an outsider who’s done it, because, just as you say, everybody knows each other.

当发生重大犯罪时，总是由局外人干的，因为，正如你所说，每个人都互相认识。

Will there be a movie of Artemis?

阿尔忒弥斯电影会拍吗？

Well, 20th Century Fox has bought the film rights and they’ve attached the directing duo of Phil Lord and Chris Miller to the project, and those two are now in the process of choosing a screenplay writer to write the adaptation.

好吧，20 世纪福克斯公司已经购买了电影版权，并且他们已将菲尔·洛德和克里斯·米勒的导演二人组纳入该项目，而这两个人现在正在选择编剧来编写改编作品。

But a whole bunch of stuff needs to go right for a movie to get green-lighted.

但一部电影要想获得批准，需要做很多事情。

So at this point, it’s just — it’s very early days and just cross your fingers.

所以在这一点上，只是 ——现在还处于早期阶段，祈祷吧。

And to close, could you just give us some sense of your vision for the future of your own career, what you would like to write, what else you would like to accomplish, how you think about the path that you’re on?

最后，您能否向我们介绍一下您对自己职业生涯未来的愿景、您想写什么、您还想完成什么、您如何看待自己所走的道路？

Love the path that I’m on.

热爱我所走的路。

I want to keep writing books.

我想继续写书。

I have more ideas for books than I have remaining lifespan to write them.

我对书籍的想法比我剩余的寿命还要多。

So I’m set on that front.

所以我已经做好了这方面的准备。

Andy Weir, thank you very much.

安迪·威尔，非常感谢你。

It’s been a pleasure.

这是一种乐趣。

Thank you for having me.

谢谢你有我。