Alain Bertaud on Cities, Markets, and People (Ep. 76 - Live in NYC)

We’ll just jump right in.

我们就直接跳进去。

If you were to meet a 20-year-old Robert Moses before he set out on his career, what would you tell him?

如果你在 20 岁的罗伯特·摩西开始职业生涯之前见到他，你会告诉他什么？

It reminds me a bit what happened in Switzerland at a certain time, where to own a piece of land in Switzerland was becoming valuable for a lot of people because it gives access, a refuge, let’s say.

这让我想起了瑞士某个时候发生的事情，在瑞士拥有一块土地对很多人来说变得很有价值，因为它提供了通道，可以说是一个避难所。

And Swiss farmers who wanted to expand their fields, to have some more cows, suddenly were competing with a Russian oligarch.

想要扩大土地、养更多奶牛的瑞士农民突然开始与俄罗斯寡头竞争。

And obviously, this is not traditional economics.

显然，这不是传统经济学。

Although I will be rather laissez-faire, I think this is a case where .

虽然我会比较放任，但我认为这是一个案例。

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And indeed, the Swiss government put a red line around certain areas.

事实上，瑞士政府在某些领域划出了红线。

Foreigners, I think, can still buy properties in Zurich or in Geneva, but they are not allowed to compete with Swiss farmers in buying land.

我认为外国人仍然可以在苏黎世或日内瓦购买房产，但他们不能与瑞士农民竞争购买土地。

I have not studied Airbnb as much, but I think it’s a case where you have to look at it that way, that you have a competition here, in cities.

我对 Airbnb 的研究不多，但我认为你必须以这种方式看待它，因为你在这里、在城市里有竞争。

Tourism might be important and interesting, but it’s not a sense of city.

旅游业可能很重要也很有趣，但它不是城市感。

The cities are the people.

城市就是人民。

If the people are gone from a city, it’s not very interesting.

如果人们离开了城市，那就没什么意思了。

On depopulating city cores

关于城市核心人口减少

New York, Manhattan had a density which was two or three times higher than it is now.

纽约曼哈顿的密度比现在高出两三倍。

I don’t think you can say that Manhattan is depopulated.

我认为你不能说曼哈顿人口稀少。

On YIMBY’s prospects

关于 YIMBY 的前景

I remember in Washington some years ago, there was a letter to the Washington Post.

我记得几年前在华盛顿，有一封写给《华盛顿邮报》的信。

Somebody was saying, “How is it possible that in Fairfax County they allow more houses, where my house has increased in value in the last five years by only 5 percent?” They thought that was a legitimate case.

有人说，“在费尔法克斯县，他们怎么可能允许更多的房子，而我的房子在过去五年里只增值了 5%？”他们认为这是一个合法的案件。

If your house increases by only 5 percent, then you should stop every other house so that your house will go.

如果你的房子只增加了 5%，那么你应该停止所有其他房子，这样你的房子就会消失。

So if people consider that this is one of their…

因此，如果人们认为这是他们的......

I think it’s a question of property right.

我认为这是一个产权问题。

We have a system which decreases your property right within the boundary of your lot or your apartment.

我们有一个系统可以减少您在您的地块或公寓范围内的财产权。

You see this morning, for instance, in the New York Times, somebody get fined $15,000 because they installed a dryer and a washing machine in a basement.

例如，今天早上，在《纽约时报》上，有人因为在地下室安装了烘干机和洗衣机而被罚款 15,000 美元。

So that’s a decrease of property right.

所以这就是产权的减少。

At the same time, you increase the property right outside your boundary, but it’s a negative property right.

同时，你在你的边界之外增加了财产权，但这是一种负财产权。

You are allowed to prevent people from building what they want.

你可以阻止人们建造他们想要的东西。

This dilution of property right, I think, is a big cause of NIMBY.

我认为这种产权的淡化是邻避的一个重要原因。

How do we reverse it?

我们如何扭转它？

I don’t know.

我不知道。

Because in a way, it seems very democratic and legitimate to have a say about what your neighbor is doing.

因为在某种程度上，对邻居的所作所为发表意见似乎是非常民主和合法的。

You say, “Well, I’m preserving the character of the neighborhood.” Well, if the character of the neighborhood has to be preserved in Manhattan, if it was preserved 50 or 100 years ago, there would be no Manhattan.

你说：“好吧，我正在保留这个社区的特色。”好吧，如果曼哈顿街区的特色必须得到保留，如果它保留在 50 或 100 年前，那就没有曼哈顿了。

On public transit

在公共交通上

You have to maintain the transit system in the same way as you maintain the sewer system and the water system.

您必须像维护下水道系统和供水系统一样维护交通系统。

I think that the destruction, the lack of maintenance, the attention which has been given to the subway is equivalent of lead in the water in Flint or a thing like that.

我认为对地铁的破坏、缺乏维护以及对地铁的关注相当于弗林特水中的铅或类似的东西。

In a market city, it’s the price of land which finances the development of new building, automatically.

在市场城市，土地价格自动为新建筑的开发提供资金。

It is never proposed or realized that the land is expensive and therefore they can’t build more, or asking the planners, “Please, let us build an office building there or something.”

从来没有提出或意识到土地很昂贵，因此他们不能建造更多，或者要求规划者，“请让我们在那里建造一座办公楼或其他东西。”

If you are in a socialist country, like I have seen China before the reform, or Russia at a time in the early ’90s, you need the initiative of a planner to say, “We are going to build something new here.” They will have to compensate not the owner, but the user, to move them somewhere else.

如果你在一个社会主义国家，就像我见过改革前的中国，或者90年代初的俄罗斯，你需要规划者主动说：“我们要在这里建设一些新的东西。”他们必须补偿的不是所有者，而是用户，以将其转移到其他地方。

So to the state, this is an innate cash expenditure.

所以对于国家来说，这是一项固有的现金支出。

To replace a low building by a high building is a cash expenditure that the city has to pay, where in a market economy, of course, it is done automatically in a certain way.

用高层建筑取代低层建筑是城市必须支付的现金支出，当然在市场经济中，这是按一定方式自动完成的。

In a way, the system is reversed.

在某种程度上，系统是相反的。

In a market economy, it’s the planners who are slowing down the transformation, where in a socialist economy, the planners realize that it’s not a very good use of land but cannot find the money to change the land use.

在市场经济中，是规划者在减缓转变，而在社会主义经济中，规划者意识到这不是很好的土地利用方式，但却找不到钱来改变土地用途。

And in a way, there was a grassroots movement against high-income people coming to the city.

在某种程度上，存在着反对高收入人群进入城市的草根运动。

I found that very disturbing because, after all, high-income people create a lot of jobs for all sorts of income at the same time.

我发现这非常令人不安，因为毕竟高收入人群同时为各种收入创造了大量就业机会。

In the same way as you should not exclude poor migrants from coming to the city, I don’t see any rationale for excluding high-income people either.

就像你不应该排除贫困农民工进入城市一样，我也不认为有任何理由排除高收入人群。

Now, the fact that the city limits so much the construction of new housing — in my book, you see there is a chapter which has a table of New York City zoning, and it shows the incredible limit in the number of dwelling units which can be built, block by block, with completely arbitrary numbers.

现在，事实上，这座城市对新住房的建设有如此多的限制——在我的书中，你会看到有一章有一张纽约市分区表，它显示了可以逐个街区建造的住宅单元数量的令人难以置信的限制，数量完全是任意的。

On one hand, you have higher-income people coming to the city.

一方面，高收入人群来到这座城市。

On the other hand, the city is blocking the development of new housing and controlling also the size of it, privileging in, in fact, larger houses than the demand.

另一方面，该市正在阻止新住房的开发，并控制其规模，事实上，给予比需求更大的住房。

So, when higher-income people come in, yes, certainly it will raise the rent, but not because higher-income people are greedy or whatever.

所以，当高收入的人进来时，是的，肯定会提高租金，但不是因为高收入的人贪婪或其他什么。

It’s because the city is blocking the supply at the same time.

因为该市同时封锁了供应。

You cannot have an increase in jobs and a freeze in housing at the same time.

你不能同时增加就业机会和冻结住房。

So the problem is not the people coming in.

所以问题不在于进来的人。

The problem is the city refusing to admit that they need to build more housing.

问题是该市拒绝承认他们需要建造更多住房。

I remember in Sichuan, a city of about 600,000 — they had a high-tech industry.

我记得在四川，一个大约有60万人口的城市——他们有高科技产业。

They were doing flat screen.

他们正在做平面屏幕。

They wanted to expand it, but to expand it, they needed top engineers to do the research.

他们想要扩展它，但为了扩展它，他们需要顶尖的工程师来进行研究。

It was difficult to attract top engineers from Shanghai or the east coast to go to Sichuan, a relatively small city.

很难吸引上海或东部沿海的顶尖工程师去四川这个相对较小的城市。

So the mayor says, “The only way we can expand this is to have very good education and good environment.

所以市长说：“我们扩大这一范围的唯一方法是拥有良好的教育和良好的环境。

We can, as a selling point — an engineer in Beijing or Shanghai or even Guangzhou will be probably interested to live with his family in an environment where the air is pure, the gardens are well maintained, and the schools are very good.”

我们可以作为一个卖点——北京、上海甚至广州的工程师可能有兴趣与家人一起生活在空气纯净、花园维护良好、学校非常好的环境中。”

So you see, you had a mayor here who understood really how to attract people and how to grow the city.

所以你看，这里有一位市长，他真正了解如何吸引人们以及如何发展城市。

On Shenzhen

关于深圳

I did a back-of-envelope calculation.

我做了一个粗略的计算。

I said, “300,000 to 5 million, are you kidding?

我说：三十万到五百万，开玩笑吧？

Try to do a city of a million and a half, maybe two million will conserve infrastructure.

尝试建立一个拥有一百五十万、也许两百万人口的城市，可以节省基础设施。

This is completely out of the question.”

这完全不可能。”

So Shenzhen is now 12 million people.

所以深圳现在有1200万人口。

But what people forget about Shenzhen — a lot of people think that Shenzhen was built the way Brasilia was built.

但人们忘记了深圳——很多人认为深圳是按照巴西利亚的方式建造的。

The government decided, “Let’s just do this.”

政府决定：“我们就这么做吧。”

No, Shenzhen was a perimeter.

不，深圳是一个外围。

For the first time, Deng Xiaoping said, “We are going to have a labor market.

邓小平第一次说：“我们将有一个劳动力市场。

Within this perimeter, people are going to be able to change jobs.

在这个范围内，人们将能够更换工作。

They are going to have salaries which are commensurate with their skills, and their employers will be able to increase their salary or decrease it or fire them, depending on what they need.”

他们将获得与他们的技能相称的薪水，他们的雇主将能够根据他们的需要增加或减少薪水或解雇他们。”

So what created the success of Shenzhen was the first labor market in China.

深圳的成功在于中国第一个劳动力市场。

And that’s why in Shenzhen, you had people coming from all over China.

这就是为什么在深圳，有来自中国各地的人。

That’s why many people in Shenzhen are speaking Mandarin and not Cantonese — because this has attracted a lot of people who refused, were bold enough, in a way, or confident enough, to say, “We don’t need the big rice bowl.

这就是为什么很多深圳人都说普通话而不是粤语——因为这吸引了很多人拒绝，在某种程度上，足够大胆，或者足够自信，说：“我们不需要大饭碗。

We are confident in our own skill, and we can make it.”

我们对自己的技术充满信心，我们可以做到。”

There are some books actually.

其实有一些书。

There is a novel called Northern Girls, which is written by a Chinese who came from the North, semi-skilled or unskilled.

有一本小说叫《北方姑娘》，是一个来自北方的半熟练或不熟练的中国人写的。

And she tells the story of .

她讲述了 的故事。

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It’s a novel, but I think it explains exactly the point of view of migrants coming to a city, raised in the context of China, where you had this guarantee of a job, but you would stay all your life in the same job.

这是一本小说，但我认为它准确地解释了移民来到城市的观点，在中国的背景下长大，在那里你有工作的保证，但你会一辈子从事同一份工作。

And then people realized that if they were relying on their own energy, they could do better than that.

然后人们意识到，如果他们依靠自己的能量，他们可以做得更好。

So the success of Shenzhen is really the creation of the first labor market in China.

所以深圳的成功实际上是创建了中国第一个劳动力市场。

But cities like Singapore, Malacca, Mumbai are there for a good reason.

但新加坡、马六甲、孟买等城市的出现是有充分理由的。

And I don’t think there’s that many very good locations.

而且我认为没有那么多很好的地点。

If you look at the number of deaths of pedestrians per 10,000 people, it has a world record.

如果看每万人中行人死亡人数，这已经是世界纪录了。

If you look at the segregation by income, the poor living at 30 kilometers from the city with not very good transport system, and the rich living entirely in the center.

如果你按收入划分来看，穷人居住在距城市 30 公里、交通系统不太发达的地方，而富人则完全居住在市中心。

It is one of the worst records in the world in any measure you can have.

无论以何种标准衡量，这都是世界上最差的记录之一。

But of course, it’s a World Heritage city.

但当然，这是一座世界遗产城市。

For the 50-years anniversary of the city, I was invited by the committee to celebrate.

建城50周年之际，我受组委会邀请参加庆祝活动。

And I told them, “But did you read what I wrote about Brasilia?”

我告诉他们，“但是你读过我写的关于巴西利亚的文章吗？”

On weird city population distributions

奇怪的城市人口分布

So you have some countries where the distribution of cities follows unusual patterns.

因此，有些国家的城市分布遵循不寻常的模式。

Thailand has an income more or less the same as Mexico, but an urbanization rate close to that of Guatemala.

泰国的收入与墨西哥大致相同，但城市化率接近危地马拉。

Do you have a sense of what accounts for these cases?

您知道这些案例的原因是什么吗？

I think you cannot change this.

我认为你无法改变这一点。

You cannot have a plan to say, “Let us develop smaller cities.” If you have this pattern, it’s because you have a political system which gives such an advantage to the major city that this is where people want to go.

你不能有一个计划说：“让我们发展更小的城市。”如果你有这种模式，那是因为你有一个政治制度，它给大城市带来了这样的优势，这就是人们想去的地方。

And if you are in a second-rate city, you are so much penalized.

如果你在二流城市，你会受到很大的惩罚。

Unless you change the political system, you decentralize.

除非你改变政治制度，否则你就会权力下放。

For instance, French decentralization, which was done in the ’70s, ’80s, has not resulted in a change in the pattern of cities.

比如，法国70、80年代的权力下放并没有带来城市格局的变化。

Paris is still dominant and growing.

巴黎仍然占据主导地位并且还在不断增长。

Look at Russia also — the only city which is really growing is Moscow.

看看俄罗斯——唯一真正增长的城市是莫斯科。

I think it reflects a political system.

我认为这反映了一种政治制度。

I think that planners trying to spread, let’s say, cities without a change in the political system or even the culture .

我认为规划者试图在不改变政治制度甚至文化的情况下扩展城市。

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Centralization is a culture.

集权是一种文化。

In the case of my country, France, I think centralization is a cultural aspect.

就我的国家法国而言，我认为集权是一个文化方面。

It’s not only political.

这不仅仅是政治上的。

In our geography book, we had this map of Manhattan.

在我们的地理书中，我们有这张曼哈顿地图。

Our first reaction was, the people in Manhattan must have a hard time finding their way because all the streets are exactly the same.

我们的第一反应是，曼哈顿的人一定很难找到路，因为所有的街道都一模一样。

In our geography book, we had this map of Manhattan.

在我们的地理书中，我们有这张曼哈顿地图。

Our first reaction was, the people in Manhattan must have a hard time finding their way because all the streets are exactly the same.

我们的第一反应是，曼哈顿的人一定很难找到路，因为所有的街道都一模一样。

On things under- and overrated

关于被低估和高估的事情

Of course, after the earthquake, it has never recovered.

当然，地震之后就再也没有恢复过。

And this is very sad.

这是非常悲伤的。

I don’t know if it will ever recover.

我不知道它是否会恢复。

I don’t know.

我不知道。

It seems that the political system is unable to evolve.

政治制度似乎无法发展。

It’s probably slightly better than what it was when I was in Port-au-Prince at the time of Baby Doc.

这可能比我在太子港拍《宝贝医生》时的情况要好一些。

But the city has deteriorated since that time.

但自那时以来，这座城市的情况已经恶化。

And the combination of the earthquake, the deterioration also of environment due to overpopulation and deforestation .

加上地震，人口过剩和森林砍伐也导致环境恶化。

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Deforestation in Haiti — at the time of Duvalier, one of the main sources of tax for the government was kerosene.

海地的森林砍伐——在杜瓦利埃时代，政府的主要税收来源之一是煤油。

So kerosene was, for the relatively wealthy people, the way of cooking.

因此，对于相对富裕的人来说，煤油是烹饪的方式。

The poor people, because kerosene was so expensive because of the high taxes, were cutting every tree, every bush in order just to cook.

由于高税收，煤油非常昂贵，穷人砍伐每一棵树，每一丛灌木，只是为了做饭。

This deforestation, again, was manmade, but a systematic political thing.

这种森林砍伐再次是人为的，但却是一个系统性的政治事件。

Again, there are different ways of registering property.

同样，登记财产有不同的方式。

For instance, the way it was done in the compound in Indonesia where — by the way, another skeleton in my closet — in Indonesia, the World Bank participated in financing the compound upgrading, which was basically slum, I mean former villages which had to be provided with infrastructure.

例如，在印度尼西亚的大院中，世界银行参与了对印度尼西亚大院升级的融资，那里基本上是贫民窟，我指的是必须提供基础设施的前村庄。

And our theory in the bank was that you can do that only if you provide property rights to the people who are living there, whether they are squatters or not.

我们银行的理论是，只有向居住在那里的人提供财产权，无论他们是否是擅自占地者，你才能做到这一点。

You just survey their plot, you give them property right.

你只需调查他们的地块，你就给予他们财产权。

And we insisted with the government — the Indonesian government — at the beginning, we insisted that we will not provide infrastructure unless there was also a program to provide property rights.

我们一开始就坚持与政府——印度尼西亚政府——合作，除非有提供产权的计划，否则我们不会提供基础设施。

The Indonesian insisted that this will cost too much.

印尼人坚称这会花费太多。

We did the back-of-envelope thing, and it did cost too much to have a proper survey, especially the way lots were extremely small.

我们做了粗略的调查，进行适当的调查确实花费太多，尤其是地块非常小。

So we decided to go ahead and finance it because Indonesia was such a big client, and the World Bank is still a bank.

因此，我们决定继续为其提供融资，因为印度尼西亚是一个大客户，而世界银行仍然是一家银行。

You need to lend money at the end of the day.

您最终需要借钱。

So eventually, what we found is that when people had infrastructure, they had the water meter, they had water, and they had the water bill, and they will pay the bill.

所以最终，我们发现，当人们拥有基础设施时，他们就有了水表，他们有水，他们有水费账单，他们会支付账单。

And the bill itself was an address.

账单本身就是一个地址。

In order to have a bill you have an address.

为了获得账单，您必须有一个地址。

The bill was a proxy for a property title.

该法案是财产所有权的代理。

When some people made a study about that, they found that a property guaranteed by a water bill was discounted maybe about 10 percent compared to a formal thing.

当有人对此进行研究时，他们发现由水费担保的房产与正规房产相比大约有10%的折扣。

So you see, I don’t necessarily make a .

所以你看，我不一定要做一个 .

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I think property rights are very important.

我认为产权非常重要。

It’s a guarantee that you will not be removed without compensation.

这是保证您不会在没有补偿的情况下被解雇。

But I don’t make necessarily a very strong boundary between formal and informal.

但我并不一定在正式和非正式之间划出非常严格的界限。

I think there can be a lot of property rights which are just there and as effective.

我认为可以有很多产权，它们就在那里并且同样有效。

You want property right for transaction, and I think those informal property rights could guarantee very fair transaction the same way as formal one.

你需要交易的产权，我认为那些非正式的产权可以像正式产权一样保证非常公平的交易。

But if you have a large piece of desert which has no alternative use, I think it will be a good way of starting a charter city, and the demand is really the refugees.

但如果你有一大片没有其他用途的沙漠，我认为这将是建立特许城市的好方法，而需求确实是难民。

Especially in the Middle East, you have a mix of refugees with all sorts of skills — some unskilled, but some highly skilled — and that will be perfect for a charter city.

特别是在中东，难民拥有各种技能——有些是非技能，但有些是高技能——这对于特许城市来说是完美的。

What I fear with the new city is that a lot of resources will be taken away from Jakarta and put in the middle of Kalimantan instead of evolving.

我对新城市的担心是，大量资源将从雅加达被夺走，并放在加里曼丹中部，而不是不断发展。

Again, it’s possible that Jakarta needs some kind of operation, you know, cutting a limb or something.

再说一次，雅加达可能需要某种手术，你知道，切断肢体什么的。

But there are still many areas which are completely viable.

但仍有许多领域是完全可行的。

The hills toward Bogor, for instance, are completely viable.

例如，通往茂物的山丘是完全可行的。

So it’s possible you could have a translation, some maybe 5 million people moving slightly south from the sea toward Bogor.

所以你可能会得到一个翻译，大约有 500 万人从海边稍微向南迁移到茂物。

Bangkok had the same problem some years ago for the same reason that people were pumping the water tables, so the city was sinking, and eventually they managed to stop that.

曼谷几年前也遇到过同样的问题，出于同样的原因，人们抽水位，所以城市正在下沉，最终他们设法阻止了这种情况。

So Bangkok is still flooded from time to time.

所以曼谷还是时不时会被洪水淹没。

It’s not quite on the seaside the way Jakarta is.

它不像雅加达那样位于海边。

I think that technology should be the solution for Jakarta.

我认为技术应该是雅加达的解决方案。

I think that it would be a terrible mistake.

我认为这将是一个可怕的错误。

Don’t forget that Jakarta was .

不要忘记雅加达是。

.

。

.

。

it’s a traffic jam, enormous traffic jam, pollution, and still is much more productive.

这是一场交通堵塞，巨大的交通堵塞，污染，但生产力却要高得多。

The productivity of people working in Jakarta is much, much higher than a city like Bandung for instance, which is rather pleasant to live in.

在雅加达工作的人们的生产力比万隆这样的城市高得多，居住起来相当愉快。

So there is something about this agglomeration of people who are used to work together with different talents, different things, which make it efficient.

因此，这种聚集的人习惯于与不同的人才、不同的事物一起工作，这使得工作效率很高。

I don’t think you can translate, you can move this efficiency in a new Brasilia in the middle of Kalimantan.

我不认为你可以翻译，你可以将这种效率转移到加里曼丹中部的新巴西利亚。

On congestion pricing

关于拥堵收费

I was extremely optimistic about a self-driving car.

我对自动驾驶汽车非常乐观。

I remember being invited — it was Marie-Agnes.

我记得有人邀请我——是玛丽-艾格尼丝。

We were invited to Google twice to discuss precisely what will be the impact on cities of self-driving cars.

我们两次受邀来到谷歌，准确讨论自动驾驶汽车对城市的影响。

At the time, I recall someone, I think was the head of the self-driving division at Google .

当时，我记得有人，我认为是谷歌自动驾驶部门的负责人。

.

。

.

。

When we asked him, “When do you think the self-driving car will be operational and we will find them in cities?” He said, “Well, I have a daughter who is 10 years old.

当我们问他：“你认为自动驾驶汽车什么时候会投入使用，我们会在城市中找到它们？”他说：“嗯，我有一个10岁的女儿。

And I think by the time she’s the age of having a driving license, I hope that the Google car will be operational in the city.” So that was about 10 years ago.

我想当她到了获得驾驶执照的年龄时，我希望谷歌汽车能够在这座城市运营。”那是大约10年前的事了。

If you have a self-driving car, you could have a self-driving car within half a meter of each other.

如果你有一辆自动驾驶汽车，那么你的自动驾驶汽车之间的距离可以在半米之内。

So you save on real estate.

这样您就可以节省房地产费用。

Urban transport is a real estate problem.

城市交通是一个房地产问题。

You can expand the supply of housing as much as you want.

您可以随意扩大住房供应。

You cannot expand the supply of existing road.

您无法扩大现有道路的供应。

So pricing, yes, is the only way to do it.

所以定价是唯一的方法。

Yes, probably.

是的，可能是。

So that’s why your food — if you order your food every 10 minutes, your food is going to be very expensive.

这就是为什么你的食物——如果你每 10 分钟点一次食物，你的食物就会非常昂贵。

I will even go to the system of Singapore.

我什至会去新加坡的系统。

When you look at the discussion of pricing in Manhattan, we are far from it.

当你看看曼哈顿关于定价的讨论时，你会发现我们离它还很远。

Singapore, which now is going to price car — not only a different part of the city, different price at different time, but also how long you use the road.

新加坡现在要对汽车定价——不仅是城市的不同地区、不同时间的不同价格，还包括你使用道路的时间。

That means if you park your car in private parking, you don’t pay anymore.

这意味着如果您将车停在私人停车场，则无需再付费。

You pay for, really, the use of the road.

实际上，您需要为道路的使用付费。

I don’t think I put it in my book, but I always say that urban roads should be priced like a cheap motel.

我想我没有把它写进我的书里，但我总是说城市道路的定价应该像廉价汽车旅馆一样。

Every 10 minutes, you adjust the price, depending on the demand and the thing.

每 10 分钟，您根据需求和物品调整价格。

And the location.

还有位置。

And the day of the week.

以及一周中的哪一天。

So, it’s a terrible system as all points of view.

所以，从所有角度来看，这是一个糟糕的系统。

I don’t think it’s the equivalent of a congestion tax because it doesn’t prevent people from coming to cities.

我不认为这相当于拥堵税，因为它不会阻止人们来到城市。

And actually, the Chinese economy in city is working based on people not having Hukou.

事实上，中国的城市经济是建立在没有户口的人的基础上的。

If all the people having Hukou were kicked out and pushed back in where they belong in the countryside, the Chinese economy will collapse.

如果所有拥有户口的人都被赶出并推回他们所属的农村地区，中国经济就会崩溃。

Again, a bit like the Amazon thing, the salesmanship was terrible.

再次，有点像亚马逊的事情，销售技巧很糟糕。

If they were saying, “Look, we are going to do a real estate operation.

如果他们说：“看，我们要做房地产业务。

We are going to monitor what is a real cost of, for instance, building five-story building in wood whether it makes sense or not.” That’s fine.

例如，我们将监控用木头建造五层建筑的实际成本，无论其是否合理。”没关系。

Marie-Agnes and I visited it a few months ago, and I see a lot of gadgets.

几个月前，玛丽-艾格尼丝和我参观了那里，我看到了很多小玩意。

They call it smart.

他们称之为聪明。

I call that gadgets.

我称之为小工具。

Some are interesting.

有些很有趣。

Some are probably very interesting, but it is at a stage where it’s only if it’s replicated at a city scale that we will know if these gadgets are really interesting or not.

有些可能非常有趣，但只有在城市规模上进行复制，我们才能知道这些小玩意是否真的有趣。

So I think they oversold it, and it’s going to probably blow in their face.

所以我认为他们超卖了，这可能会打他们的脸。

I don’t think you can dis-invent a technology.

我不认为你可以废除一项技术。

You could have a law which prevents the government from having cameras run by government, but then you will have cameras run by department stores, and you will see that the police have access to it.

你可以制定一项法律，禁止政府让政府运行摄像头，但随后你将拥有百货公司运行的摄像头，你会看到警察可以使用它。

Eventually, they will.

最终，他们会的。

So you cannot dis-invent it.

所以你不能废除它。

The only way we can control it to preserve our freedom is through precisely the government using it and having extremely strict rules about how to use it, so that we don’t end up like in China, to have your personal files fed by the picture taking of the street.

我们能够控制它以维护我们的自由的唯一方法就是通过政府使用它并对如何使用它制定极其严格的规则，这样我们就不会像在中国一样，通过街头拍照来填充你的个人档案。

I think that came slowly, probably from the United States.

我认为这可能是从美国慢慢发生的。

As soon as you are liable for your passenger .

一旦您对您的乘客负责。

.

。

.

。

And then first, it can be the accident.

首先，这可能是意外。

After, it can be something else.

之后，它可以是别的东西。

It can be all sorts of things.

它可以是各种各样的事情。

That the guy’s smoking, and you have inhaled the smoke, or something like that.

那个人在抽烟，而你吸入了烟雾，或者类似的东西。

Or that the guy drops you in the wrong place, and you get mugged, and so you can sue the driver.

或者那个人把你送到错误的地方，然后你被抢劫了，所以你可以起诉司机。

So as soon as you do that, you completely discourage this freeloading.

所以一旦你这样做了，你就完全阻止了这种贪图便宜的行为。

We will see that for mountain climbing also, I think.

我想，我们也会在登山中看到这一点。

I have a lot of friends who died in avalanche.

我有很多朋友在雪崩中丧生。

It will have never, never occurred to anybody to sue the village or the mountain where the avalanche took place.

任何人都从来没有想过要起诉雪崩发生的村庄或山。

And now it’s a common thing.

现在这已经是很常见的事情了。

I think recently in Italy, there was a hiker.

我想最近在意大利，有一个徒步旅行者。

He was alone.

他独自一人。

He get lost.

他迷路了。

The family now is suing the entire region because they thought that they didn’t look for him fast enough.

现在，这家人正在起诉整个地区，因为他们认为寻找他的速度不够快。

There were tens of helicopters, but they say they didn’t look for him fast enough.

有数十架直升机，但他们说他们寻找他的速度不够快。

I think that as soon as you have a liability like that, you destroy any initiative, the personal initiative.

我认为，一旦你承担了这样的责任，你就会摧毁任何主动性，个人主动性。

Hitchhiking was a form of freedom, which was rare.

搭便车是一种罕见的自由形式。

Interesting.

有趣的。

On the Alain Bertaud production function

关于阿兰·贝尔托生产函数

In my book, I talk about even I was not graduated in Nigeria two years after independence.

在我的书中，我谈到了即使我在尼日利亚独立两年后还没有毕业。

I was inspecteur de l’urbanisme.

我是城市规划督察。

I was 25 years old.

那年我25岁。

Nobody now graduating from any school will be inspecteur de l’urbanisme — not that I wish them to be inspecteur de l’urbanisme at 25 years old.

现在从任何学校毕业的人都不会成为城市规划督察——并不是说我希望他们在 25 岁时就成为城市规划督察。

This idea that you graduate from a Western university at the time of decolonization — this gives you an opportunity.

你在非殖民化时期从西方大学毕业的想法——这给了你一个机会。

When I arrived in Chandigarh, I was 23.

当我到达昌迪加尔时，我23岁。

I had taken a year off from the École des Beaux-Artes, and I arrive at the office of Pierre Jeanneret in Chandigarh, and I say, “Oh, you know, I’m looking for a job.” He gives me a job right away.

我从巴黎美术学院休了一年假，来到昌迪加尔皮埃尔·让纳雷 (Pierre Jeanneret) 的办公室，我说：“哦，你知道，我正在找工作。”他马上就给了我一份工作。

Okay, it was 60 rupees a month, but it was a job.

好吧，一个月 60 卢比，但这是一份工作。

Now a Frenchman going to Hyderabad and saying, “I’m looking for a job.

现在，一个法国人去海得拉巴说：“我正在找工作。

I am 23 years old” — nobody will take him seriously.

我今年 23 岁了”——没有人会认真对待他。

He’ll be kicked out of the office right away.

他将立即被赶出办公室。

He will give me a map of the city.

他会给我一张城市地图。

He will say, “You have to go there, there, there, there.

他会说：“你必须去那里，那里，那里，那里。

Here, you probably could have a good lunch.

在这里，您可能可以享用一顿丰盛的午餐。

And I meet you tonight at the restaurant with my clients there.” So I will spend the day with my map going around and then in the evening my father will say, “Okay — ”

今晚我和我的客户在餐厅见面。”所以我会整天拿着地图到处转，然后到了晚上我父亲就会说：“好吧——”

Another comparative advantage was to marry Marie-Agnes.

另一个相对优势是娶了玛丽-艾格尼丝。

There are not many women, when we had this nice job with the city planning commission in New York in ’68, ’68?

68、68 年，当我们在纽约城市规划委员会获得这份不错的工作时，女性并不多？

Yes, ’69.

是的，69 年。

I told her, “Well, there is this opening for a job as urban planner in Sana’a, Yemen.” And she says, “Great, let’s go.” I don’t know.

我告诉她，“嗯，也门萨那有一个城市规划师的职位空缺。”她说：“太好了，我们走吧。”我不知道。

Again, I don’t know if any woman will ever be that, it will be such enthusiasm.

再说一次，我不知道是否有哪个女人会那样，会如此热情。

I didn’t have to prod her or anything.

我不需要刺激她什么的。

She was as enthusiastic as I was.

她和我一样热情。

Q&A

问答

It’s difficult to imagine Paris not being the capital city.

很难想象巴黎不是首都。

Or is it that the capital city becomes a business city?

还是首都变成了商业城市？

Like, say, Washington, for instance, now has expanded much more beyond .

比如说，华盛顿现在的扩张远远超出了……。

.

。

.

。

If you compare, say, to Canberra or Brasilia, it has expanded much more.

如果你与堪培拉或巴西利亚相比，你会发现它的扩张要大得多。

I will think about it.

我会考虑一下。

Sorry, I cannot answer it.

抱歉，我无法回答。

I think that every city has a chance, but it’s a chance.

我认为每个城市都有机会，但这就是机会。

I mean it’s luck sometime.

我的意思是有时这就是运气。

They can develop or stagnate.

它们可以发展或停滞。

Cities are very much like individual.

城市非常像个人。

We all have the same physiology, but we have different culture, different .

我们都有相同的生理机能，但我们有不同的文化，不同的。

.

。

.

。

But we have also different luck, like being born in 1939.

但我们也有不同的运气，比如1939年出生的。

I cannot really comment on Indianapolis, again, because I never comment on cities I don’t know.

我无法真正评论印第安纳波利斯，因为我从不评论我不了解的城市。

If you see a barbershop at the corner, it’s because the owner of the barber shop found that it was the best place for his business to be there.

如果你在拐角处看到一家理发店，那是因为理发店的老板发现那里是他生意的最佳地点。

If you see a tall building next to a short building, it has a reason, too.

如果你看到一栋高楼紧邻一栋矮楼，这也是有原因的。

You have to try to understand why it is there.

你必须尝试理解它为什么在那里。

Do not think .

不要想。

.

。

.

。

One word I hate that the World Bank use all the time in a report is, urbanization is “haphazard.” There is no such thing.

我讨厌世界银行在报告中经常使用的一个词是，城市化是“随意的”。没有这样的事情。

Urbanization is done by people, and they have a very, very good reason for doing it.

城市化是由人完成的，他们有非常非常充分的理由这样做。

Sometime distorted by regulation or something like that, that’s true — discrimination — but you have to understand why the city’s it.

有时会受到监管或类似因素的扭曲，这是事实——歧视——但你必须理解为什么这座城市会这样。

After Google Earth, then it’s very different because now, I look at an image of Google Earth, and I select some neighborhoods in AdSense that I want to visit, which intrigue me.

在使用 Google 地球之后，情况就大不相同了，因为现在，我会查看 Google 地球的图像，然后在 AdSense 中选择一些我想要访问的社区，这引起了我的兴趣。

Why are they that way?

他们为什么这样？

This seems particularly dense or not dense at all.

这看起来特别密集或者根本不密集。

So rather than going at random, I will select the places based on my interpretation of Google Earth.

因此，我不会随意选择这些地点，而是根据我对 Google 地球的解释来选择地点。

Some people will say, “Well, I don’t believe in gravity.” They invent a flying carpet.

有些人会说：“好吧，我不相信重力。”他们发明了飞毯。

If flying carpet has advantage on the helicopter or a plane, that it doesn’t pollute, it’s more comfortable, it costs nothing.

如果飞毯在直升机或飞机上有优势的话，那就是它不会污染，更舒适，而且不花钱。

It lands in your backyard.

它降落在你的后院。

When there is a problem of affordability — and many cities now have this problem — you have some people who are very poor and cannot afford a standard of housing which is above what is, let’s say, the minimum socially acceptable in the city.

当存在负担能力问题时——许多城市现在都存在这个问题——有些人非常贫穷，无法负担高于城市社会可接受的最低标准的住房标准。

You have to establish how many of those people are there, and usually, if it is more than 2 or 3 or 4 percent of the population, you’ll have to adjust what is minimum acceptable, socially acceptable standard.

你必须确定其中有多少人，通常，如果超过人口的 2%、3% 或 4%，你就必须调整社会可接受的最低标准。

For the rest of the population, housing should be provided by the market.

对于其余人口，住房应由市场提供。

What do I mean by that?

我这么说是什么意思？

I mean that if you look for a house, and you have to be on the waiting list 10 years to go on public housing or to go on inclusive zoning — the houses provided in New York by inclusive zoning — or you have a lottery inclusive zoning.

我的意思是，如果你要找房子，你必须在等待名单上 10 年才能进入公共住房或继续包容性分区——纽约通过包容性分区提供的房子——或者你有一个彩票包容性分区。

You have usually 120 units, and you have a lottery.

通常你有 120 个单位，并且有彩票。

You have 150,000 applicants.

您有 150,000 名申请人。

This is not serious.

这并不严重。

Waiting list is not serious.

等候名单并不严重。

The market should provide.

市场应该提供。

The market means that there are people moving in and moving out.

市场意味着有人搬进来，有人搬出去。

When you are in a subsidized house, you don’t move.

当你住在补贴住房里时，你不能搬家。

If you are in rent control house, you will never move because your subsidy is entirely linked.

如果你在租金管制屋，你永远不会搬家，因为你的补贴是完全挂钩的。

You have no market, so you have no mobility.

你没有市场，所以你没有流动性。

The idea of housing is mobility.

住房的理念是流动性。

At different times of our life, we want to move from one type of house to another and to a different location.

在我们生命的不同时期，我们想从一种类型的房子搬到另一种类型的房子，搬到不同的地方。

If we have a system which ties the subsidy to where we live, we lose this mobility, and it doesn’t benefit anybody else.

如果我们有一个将补贴与我们居住的地方挂钩的制度，我们就会失去这种流动性，而且它不会让其他任何人受益。

My criteria for affordability is not to look at very poor people, which, indeed, if they have bad health or bad luck, the country should take care of them.

我的负担能力标准不是看非常贫困的人，事实上，如果他们健康状况不佳或运气不佳，国家就应该照顾他们。

I have no problem with that, if they have subsidized housing.

如果他们有补贴住房，我对此没有问题。

But if you have, for instance, a schoolteacher — no job is more indispensable to the life of a city than a schoolteacher.

但如果你有一名教师，那么对于城市生活来说，没有什么工作比教师更不可或缺了。

If the schoolteacher cannot get a decent house within, I will say, 40 minutes’ commute from a school or their school, there’s something wrong in your system.

如果学校老师在距离学校或他们的学校 40 分钟通勤路程内找不到一所像样的房子，那么你的系统就有问题了。

It is not rent control and it is not inclusive zoning which will solve the problem, because for each of these solutions, they will have to be on a waiting list.

租金管制和包容性分区都不能解决问题，因为对于每一个解决方案，它们都必须在等待名单上。

For rent control, the schoolteacher will have to wait for somebody who is under rent control will die, even.

为了实施租金管制，学校老师将不得不等待受租金管制的人死亡，甚至等待。

Maybe not because rent control is usually narrated from .

也许不是，因为租金管制通常是从 叙述的。

.

。

.

。

You see, we have to find a solution for this, and the solution is usually increased supply.

你看，我们必须为此找到解决方案，而解决方案通常是增加供应。

Now increasing supply means increasing supply by removing absurd regulation.

现在增加供应意味着通过取消荒谬的监管来增加供应。

I’m not talking here, by the way, about fire regulation or sanitation regulation.

顺便说一句，我在这里谈论的不是消防监管或卫生监管。

I’m talking about regulation that the consumer can see: how large is a house, how large is the land it is using, and its location.

我说的是消费者可以看到的监管：房子有多大，它使用的土地有多大，以及它的位置。

Users should be able to make tradeoffs between those three things, and they are able to make it visually.

用户应该能够在这三件事之间进行权衡，并且能够以视觉方式进行权衡。

A user cannot make tradeoff between good fire regulation and bad fire regulation.

用户无法在良好的消防调节和不良的消防调节之间进行权衡。

We don’t know how to do that.

我们不知道该怎么做。

It could be that some fire regulation .

可能是一些消防调节。

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。

.

。

or maybe over design or something, but I have no opinion on that.

或者可能是过度设计什么的，但我对此没有意见。

But I don’t see that there is any purpose in limiting artificially the amount of floor space, the amount of land in a certain location.

但我不认为人为限制某一地点的建筑面积、土地面积有任何目的。

Most of fire regulation do that.

大多数消防法规都是这样做的。

They reduce floor ratio.

它们降低了容积率。

That means that they force people to consume more land than they would otherwise.

这意味着它们迫使人们消耗比原本更多的土地。

If not, there would be no reason .

如果没有，那就没有理由了。

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。

.

。

At the same time, they put a minimum floor space for apartment in New York.

同时，他们还为纽约的公寓设定了最低建筑面积。

If I remember well, it’s something like 40 square meters or something like that times two metric here.

如果我没记错的话，大约是 40 平方米，或者是 2 米的乘积。

They force people to consume more land and more floor space than they will want.

它们迫使人们消耗比他们想要的更多的土地和建筑面积。

At the same time, they reduce the supply of land by not developing enough infrastructure or transport.

与此同时，他们通过不发展足够的基础设施或交通来减少土地供应。

We have been talking about the deterioration of transport in New York City — that affected directly affordability.

我们一直在谈论纽约市交通状况的恶化——这直接影响了负担能力。

That means that our schoolteacher will have to live at maybe an hour and a half from the school, one way.

这意味着我们的老师必须住在距离学校大约一个半小时车程的地方。

That means three hours.

这意味着三个小时。

The new proletariat now in cities are not the people who are starving or have no clothes, like during the Industrial Revolution.

现在城市中的新无产阶级不再像工业革命时期那样挨饿或没有衣服穿。

The new proletariat are the people who are commuting back and forth three hours or four hours a day.

新无产阶级是那些每天来回三小时或四小时通勤的人。

I have seen cases in South Africa, in Johannesburg, where a woman was fully employed at the subsidized house.

我在南非约翰内斯堡见过这样的案例，那里有一名妇女在补贴住房中全职工作。

So she was not poor by any standard, and she had the regular job above the minimum wage, but she was commuting five hours a day.

因此，无论以什么标准衡量，她都不算贫穷，而且她有一份高于最低工资的正常工作，但她每天上下班要花五个小时。

Her life is ruin.

她的生活就是毁灭。

This is the new proletariat.

这就是新的无产阶级。

There is no possibility of having a family life.

没有可能拥有家庭生活。

All the advantage of a city disappears if you commute five hours a day.

如果每天通勤五个小时，城市的所有优势都会消失。

I think that here, urban planners or managers of cities — sometime I use urban planners as scapegoats — I mean, in fact, anybody who is involved in managing cities.

我认为，这里的城市规划者或城市管理者——有时我用城市规划者作为替罪羊——事实上，我指的是任何参与城市管理的人。

They have a responsibility for that.

他们对此负有责任。

They should have indicators about these commuting times and standard of housing and affordability.

他们应该有关于这些通勤时间以及住房标准和负担能力的指标。

When this thing deteriorates, they should take responsibility.

当事情恶化时，他们应该承担责任。

The only action they can have, increase the speed of transport.

他们唯一能做的就是提高运输速度。

Expand it and increase.

扩大并增加。

Let the people decide where they want to live, how much they want in terms of land and floor space.

让人们决定他们想要住在哪里、想要多少土地和建筑面积。

This should not be regulated.

这不应该受到监管。

Now does that have a chance to be?

现在还有机会吗？

Again, you asked me something magic here, so I’m answering a magic answer.

再一次，你在这里问了我一些神奇的事情，所以我正在回答一个神奇的答案。

I think that Uber has increased, again, probably even increased affordability in a certain way because it has made some areas of New York, which were not accessible to job in two or three hours, suddenly much less.

我认为 Uber 再次增加了，甚至可能以某种方式提高了人们的负担能力，因为它让纽约的一些原本两三个小时内无法找到工作的地区突然变得更少了。

Now, some people say they are clogging streets so the traffic has slowed down a bit.

现在，一些人说他们堵塞了街道，所以交通速度慢了一点。

Wait a minute here.

在这里等一下。

If you look at the streets of New York — I calculated it in my book — I think something like 25 percent is used by cars which are parked full time, free of charge, in the street.

如果你看看纽约的街道——我在书中计算过——我想大概有 25% 的汽车被全天候免费停在街上的汽车所使用。

If you are serious about congestion and the congestion created by Uber, you leave the curb for loading and unloading, and you still have two lanes for circulation.

如果你对拥堵和优步造成的拥堵很严重，你可以离开路边进行装卸，但仍然有两条车道可供流通。

Where in fact, you have now only one lane, and usually you have loading and unloading — by the way, not on the Uber, but Amazon and other things.

事实上，你现在只有一条车道，通常你可以装货和卸货——顺便说一句，不是在 Uber 上，而是在亚马逊和其他地方。

So, you are blocking.

所以，你正在阻止。

If really the concern is about congestion and traffic, please use valuable space for traffic or pedestrian or bicycle or whatever.

如果确实担心拥堵和交通，请使用宝贵的交通空间、行人、自行车或其他空间。

But parking cars on street is a scandal.

但在街上停车是一个丑闻。

Then of course, yes.

那么当然是的。

Robert Moses will have .

罗伯特·摩西将会有。

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。

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。

After all, the institution reacted to Robert Moses and limited the damage he did.

毕竟，该机构对罗伯特·摩西做出了反应，并限制了他造成的损害。

He did some positive things, too.

他也做了一些积极的事情。

In fact, it’s institution.

事实上，这就是制度。

Yes, you’re right.

是的，你说得对。

It’s institution.

这是机构。

Those institutions could deteriorate faster than we think, I am afraid.

恐怕这些机构的恶化速度可能比我们想象的要快。

We see that now in some countries of Europe, and it could happen here.

我们现在在欧洲的一些国家看到这种情况，也可能在这里发生。

That allowed the market to work with a complete symmetry of information.

这使得市场能够在信息完全对称的情况下运作。

Even when, say, 85th Street was just a field, everybody knew that it was 86th Street.

即使 85 街只是一片田地，每个人都知道那是 86 街。

So anybody buying a lot there will have complete symmetry of information.

因此，任何在那里大量购买的人都会拥有完全对称的信息。

And this symmetry of information in the market is much more important than agonizing whether an avenue should be 30 meters, 35 meters, or 25.

而市场上这种信息的对称性比纠结大道应该是30米、35米还是25米重要得多。

Eventually, we will adjust.

最终，我们会调整。

If the avenue is a little too narrow, we will adjust to it.

如果大道有点太窄，我们会适应它。

We’ll put congestion pricing, and we will expand the city further.

我们将实行拥堵收费，并进一步扩大城市规模。

We should not agonize on “Is it right?” We should, of course, try to have the right decision, but we should not agonize on this thing.

我们不应该为“这是对的吗？”而苦恼。当然，我们应该努力做出正确的决定，但我们不应该为这件事而苦恼。

The important thing is to have very clear property right long in advance, so it cannot be manipulated by people who will move street as they pay politician or something or whoever, urban planners, in order to move street.

重要的是要提前很久就拥有非常明确的产权，这样它就不能被那些想要搬迁街道的人操纵，就像他们付钱给政治家或其他什么人、城市规划者一样，为了搬迁街道。

This is the most detrimental thing which can happen to a city.

这是对一个城市可能发生的最有害的事情。